Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data
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Fay Michael P
2004-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Fay, Pfeiffer, Cronin, Le, and Feuer (Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837–1848 developed a formula to calculate the age-conditional probability of developing a disease for the first time (ACPDvD for a hypothetical cohort. The novelty of the formula of Fay et al (2003 is that one need not know the rates of first incidence of disease per person-years alive and disease-free, but may input the rates of first incidence per person-years alive only. Similarly the formula uses rates of death from disease and death from other causes per person-years alive. The rates per person-years alive are much easier to estimate than per person-years alive and disease-free. Fay et al (2003 used simple piecewise constant models for all three rate functions which have constant rates within each age group. In this paper, we detail a method for estimating rate functions which does not have jumps at the beginning of age groupings, and need not be constant within age groupings. We call this method the mid-age group joinpoint (MAJ model for the rates. The drawback of the MAJ model is that numerical integration must be used to estimate the resulting ACPDvD. To increase computational speed, we offer a piecewise approximation to the MAJ model, which we call the piecewise mid-age group joinpoint (PMAJ model. The PMAJ model for the rates input into the formula for ACPDvD described in Fay et al (2003 is the current method used in the freely available DevCan software made available by the National Cancer Institute.
Lexicographic probability, conditional probability, and nonstandard probability
Halpern, Joseph Y.
2003-01-01
The relationship between Popper spaces (conditional probability spaces that satisfy some regularity conditions), lexicographic probability systems (LPS's), and nonstandard probability spaces (NPS's) is considered. If countable additivity is assumed, Popper spaces and a subclass of LPS's are equivalent; without the assumption of countable additivity, the equivalence no longer holds. If the state space is finite, LPS's are equivalent to NPS's. However, if the state space is infinite, NPS's are ...
Frank T Denton; Byron G. Spencer
2014-01-01
[Background:] Surveys of chronic health conditions provide information about prevalence but not about the incidence and the process of change within the population. [Objective:] We show how the "age dynamics" of chronic conditions - the probabilities of contracting the conditions at different ages, of moving from one chronic conditions state to another, and of dying - can be inferred from prevalence data for those conditions that can be viewed as irreversible. [Methods:] Transition probabilit...
On Quantum Conditional Probability
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Isabel Guerra Bobo
2013-02-01
Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.
ESTIMATION OF AGE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES.
ZINTER, JUDITH R.
THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…
Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency
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Bryan Cort
2013-10-01
Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Probability of Boundary Conditions in Quantum Cosmology
Suenobu, Hiroshi
2016-01-01
One of the main interest in quantum cosmology is to determine which type of boundary conditions for the wave function of the universe can predict observational data of our universe. For this purpose, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation numerically and evaluate probabilities for an observable representing evolution of the classical universe, especially, the number of e-foldings of the inflation. To express boundary conditions of the wave function, we use exact solutions of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation with constant scalar field potential. These exact solutions include wave functions with well known boundary condition proposals, the no-boundary proposal and the tunneling proposal. We specify them introducing two real parameters which discriminate boundary conditions and estimate values of these parameters resulting in observationally preferable predictions. We obtain the probability for these parameters under the requirement of the sufficient e-foldings of the inflation.
Conditional probability on MV-algebras
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kroupa, Tomáš
2005-01-01
Roč. 149, č. 2 (2005), s. 369-381. ISSN 0165-0114 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2075302 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional probability * tribe * MV-algebra Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.039, year: 2005
Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling
Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.
2008-01-01
In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.
Contingency and its two indices within conditional probability analysis
Watson, John S.
1997-01-01
Four theoretical bases for detecting a contingency between behavior and consequent stimuli are considered: contiguity, correlation, conditional probability, and logical implication. It is argued that conditional probability analysis is statistically the most powerful of these options, in part due to its provision of two indices of contingency: a forward time probability that reinforcement follows behavior and a backward time probability that behavior precedes reinforcement. Evidence is cited ...
The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences
Wu, Mei
2012-01-01
Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…
Residual Probability Function, Associated Orderings, and Related Aging Classes
2014-01-01
The concept of residual probability plays an important role in reliability and life testing. In this investigation, we study further the residual probability order and its related aging classes. Several characterizations and preservation properties of this order under some statistical and reliability operations of monotone transformation, mixture, weighted distributions, and order statistics are discussed. In addition, by comparing the original distribution with its associated equilibrium dis...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (Sst, Sst, pst) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (Ssu, Ssu, psu) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (Sst, Sst, pst) and (Ssu, Ssu, psu). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
1996-03-01
A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.
Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)
2014-01-01
ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).
Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: frequency or nested sets?
Yamagishi, Kimihiko
2003-01-01
Recent probability judgment research contrasts two opposing views. Some theorists have emphasized the role of frequency representations in facilitating probabilistic correctness; opponents have noted that visualizing the probabilistic structure of the task sufficiently facilitates normative reasoning. In the current experiment, the following conditional probability task, an isomorph of the "Problem of Three Prisoners" was tested. "A factory manufactures artificial gemstones. Each gemstone has a 1/3 chance of being blurred, a 1/3 chance of being cracked, and a 1/3 chance of being clear. An inspection machine removes all cracked gemstones, and retains all clear gemstones. However, the machine removes 1/2 of the blurred gemstones. What is the chance that a gemstone is blurred after the inspection?" A 2 x 2 design was administered. The first variable was the use of frequency instruction. The second manipulation was the use of a roulette-wheel diagram that illustrated a "nested-sets" relationship between the prior and the posterior probabilities. Results from two experiments showed that frequency alone had modest effects, while the nested-sets instruction achieved a superior facilitation of normative reasoning. The third experiment compared the roulette-wheel diagram to tree diagrams that also showed the nested-sets relationship. The roulette-wheel diagram outperformed the tree diagrams in facilitation of probabilistic reasoning. Implications for understanding the nature of intuitive probability judgments are discussed. PMID:12693194
Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy
2015-01-01
This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…
The Probability of Transition to Entrepreneurship Revisited: Wealth, Education and Age
Mondragon-Velez, Camilo
2009-01-01
This paper revisits the empirical relationship between the probability of transition to entrepreneurship and wealth. Given that wealth is correlated with both education and age, these observable characteristics cannot be treated as independent covariates in the estimation. Thus, I document the differences in the transition probability profile across age and education groups. The main result of this paper is that the estimated probability of transition to entrepreneurship is hump-shaped in wea...
Age at Puberty and Father Absence in a National Probability Sample
Bogaert, A.F.
2005-01-01
The relations between intactness of the parental unit (e.g., father absent at age 14) and pubertal timing in both men and women were examined in a US national probability sample. In both men and women, an absent father at age 14 predicted an earlier age of puberty (e.g., early menarche or voice change). There was little evidence that an absent…
Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications
Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.
1980-01-01
Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.
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Shapkin Yu.G.
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Objective: the probable determination of severe sepsis in patients of elderly and senile age with necrotic erysipelas based on a comprehensive assessment (clinical examination using systems — scales and determination of the level markers of SIRS. Material and methods. The analysis of peculiarities of necrotic erysipelas clinical course in 59 patients. The first group consisted of 17 patients with severe sepsis, the second — 18 patients with sepsis without multiple organ failure, in the comparison group —22 patients with local infection. We determined albumin, urea, creatinine, pro-calcitonin of plasma. The scale SAPS III was used to quantify SIRS, scale SOFA —to determine the extent of damage to organs and systems. Results. The most sensitive marker of developing sepsis in patients with necrotic erysipelas was procalcitonin. The second important indicator of SIRS severity in patients with necrotic erysipelas was the blood albumin. Scale SAPS III also allows to select a group of patients with high risk of developing severe sepsis. Use of the SOFA to predict the scale has been found out to be less important. Conclusion. A comprehensive assessment of the severity of the condition by scale SAPS III in combination with determining the levels of procalcitonin and plasma albumin is advisable to apply for prediction the probability of developing severe sepsis in patients of elderly and senile age with necrotic erysipelas. For the last indicator it is important to assess of absolute values and the decrease of its concentration.
Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a skew-symmetric probability density function
Mazzuco, Stefano; Scarpa, Bruno
2011-01-01
Mixture probability density functions had recently been proposed to describe some fertility patterns characterized by a bi-modal shape. These mixture probability density functions appear to be adequate when the fertility pattern is actually bi-modal but less useful when the shape of age-specific fertility rates is unimodal. A further model is proposed based on skew-symmetric probability density functions. This model is both more parsimonious than mixture distributions and more flexible, sh...
Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability
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Li-Wei Chao
2009-02-01
Full Text Available Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR, few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality.
Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets
R. Blutner
2008-01-01
Recently, Gerd Niestegge developed a new approach to quantum mechanics via conditional probabilities developing the well-known proposal to consider the Lüders-von Neumann measurement as a non-classical extension of probability conditionalization. I will apply his powerful and rigorous approach to th
Conditional probabilities of identity of genes at a locus linked to a marker
Chevalet, Claude; GILLOIS, M.; Vu Tien Khang Bourgoin, Jacqueline
1984-01-01
A method is given for determining the probabilities that genes are identical by descent, at a locus linked to a marker where phenotypic data are available. For tight linkage, such conditional probabilities of identity may differ very much from unconditional ones ; they depend on the dominance relationships between alleles at the marker locus, and on the allelic frequencies. Applications discussed refer to the calculation of general two-locus descent measures, to the validation of pedigre...
Age at menarche: the influence of environmental conditions
Saar, E.; Shalev, C.; Dalal, I.; Sod-Moriah, U. A.
1988-03-01
Age at menarche was studied by the recollection method in two groups of Causasian Jewish high school girls, inhabitants of two towns in Israel, Safad and Elat. The two towns differ mainly in climatic conditions. The age at menarche was found to be significantly lower ( Pmenarche and the town in which the girls lived. Accordingly, in the hot town of Elat, the percentage of girls who had their first menstrual cycle by the age of 12 years and earlier, was more than double that of the girls in Safad (17.9% and 7.1%, respectively). It is concluded that the environmental temperature, with or without any possible interaction of humidity, is probably responsible for the tendency for an earlier onset of menarche in girls living in the hot town of Elat.
Non-classical conditional probability and the quantum no-cloning theorem
Niestegge, Gerd
2015-09-01
The quantum mechanical no-cloning theorem for pure states is generalized and transfered to the quantum logics with a conditional probability calculus in a rather abstract, though simple and basic fashion without relying on a tensor product construction or finite dimension as required in other generalizations.
The effect of conditional probability of chord progression on brain response: an MEG study.
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Seung-Goo Kim
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent electrophysiological and neuroimaging studies have explored how and where musical syntax in Western music is processed in the human brain. An inappropriate chord progression elicits an event-related potential (ERP component called an early right anterior negativity (ERAN or simply an early anterior negativity (EAN in an early stage of processing the musical syntax. Though the possible underlying mechanism of the EAN is assumed to be probabilistic learning, the effect of the probability of chord progressions on the EAN response has not been previously explored explicitly. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, the empirical conditional probabilities in a Western music corpus were employed as an approximation of the frequencies in previous exposure of participants. Three types of chord progression were presented to musicians and non-musicians in order to examine the correlation between the probability of chord progression and the neuromagnetic response using magnetoencephalography (MEG. Chord progressions were found to elicit early responses in a negatively correlating fashion with the conditional probability. Observed EANm (as a magnetic counterpart of the EAN component responses were consistent with the previously reported EAN responses in terms of latency and location. The effect of conditional probability interacted with the effect of musical training. In addition, the neural response also correlated with the behavioral measures in the non-musicians. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study is the first to reveal the correlation between the probability of chord progression and the corresponding neuromagnetic response. The current results suggest that the physiological response is a reflection of the probabilistic representations of the musical syntax. Moreover, the results indicate that the probabilistic representation is related to the musical training as well as the sensitivity of an individual.
Elizabeth A Olson; Hooper, Catalina J.; COLLINS, Paul; Luciana, Monica
2007-01-01
Healthy adolescents, ages 9–23, completed delay and probability discounting tasks and measures of verbal and nonverbal intelligence, executive functioning, and self-reported internalizing and externalizing behavior. Delay but not probability discounting decreased with age. Delay discounting was also associated with verbal intelligence and Go-NoGo and Iowa Gambling Task performance. Probability discounting was associated only with externalizing behavior. Findings conform to an accumulation of ...
Sastry, P S
2008-01-01
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multi-neuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by an ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns which are frequent in the sense that the count of non-overlapping occurrences of the pattern in the data stream is above a threshold. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of these repeating patterns and to set the thresholds automatically. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that includes not only models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a proba...
Abdalla Ahmed Abdel-Ghaly; Hanan Mohamed Aly; Elham Abdel-Malik Abde-Rahman
2016-01-01
This paper suggests the use of the conditional probability integral transformation (CPIT) method as a goodness of fit (GOF) technique in the field of accelerated life testing (ALT), specifically for validating the underlying distributional assumption in accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The method is based on transforming the data into independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) Uniform (0, 1) random variables and then applying the modified Watson statistic to test the uniformity of t...
Age dependent hit probabilities for lung cancer induction following exhalation of ingested radon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Previous calculations of the risk following ingestion of 222Rn (radon) in drinking water have been concerned primarily with the solubilization of the radon in body tissues, followed by in situ decay. Much less attention has been directed towards the escape of radon from lung tissue and blood into the alveolar air, which should lead to doses to lung tissue as the newly formed progeny deposit in lung passages prior to exhalation. The present report details the calculation of hit probabilities to the basal cells of the bronchial epithelium and alveolar cells in various age groups following ingestion of radon in drinking water. Results are compared with those obtained for the in situ decay of radon within the lung mass. (author)
Cappellari, Lorenzo; Jenkins, Stephen P.
2004-01-01
We model annual low pay transition probabilities taking account of three potentially endogenous selections: two sample drop-out mechanisms (panel attrition, non-employment) and â€˜initial conditionsâ€™ (base-year low pay status). This model, and variants that ignore one or more of these selection mechanisms, are fitted to data for men from the British Household Panel Survey. Tests of the ignorability of the endogenous selection mechanisms suggest that â€˜economicâ€™ selection mechanisms such ...
Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone
Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin
2016-05-01
This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.
Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R
2016-01-01
When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence. PMID:26581864
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Abdalla Ahmed Abdel-Ghaly
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This paper suggests the use of the conditional probability integral transformation (CPIT method as a goodness of fit (GOF technique in the field of accelerated life testing (ALT, specifically for validating the underlying distributional assumption in accelerated failure time (AFT model. The method is based on transforming the data into independent and identically distributed (i.i.d Uniform (0, 1 random variables and then applying the modified Watson statistic to test the uniformity of the transformed random variables. This technique is used to validate each of the exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions' assumptions in AFT model under constant stress and complete sampling. The performance of the CPIT method is investigated via a simulation study. It is concluded that this method performs well in case of exponential and lognormal distributions. Finally, a real life example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed procedure.
Landslide susceptibility mapping of Cekmece area (Istanbul, Turkey by conditional probability
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T. Y. Duman
2005-01-01
Full Text Available As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, the cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul. Today, the population of Istanbul is over 10 millions. Depending on this rapid urbanization, new suitable areas for settlements and engineering structures are necessary. For this reason, the Cekmece area, west of the Istanbul metropolitan area, is selected as the study area, because the landslides are frequent in this area. The purpose of the present study is to produce landslide susceptibility map of the selected area by conditional probability approach. For this purpose, a landslide database was constructed by both air – photography and field studies. 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by landslides. Mainly, the landslides described in the area are generally located in the lithologies including the permeable sandstone layers and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone layers. When considering this finding, it is possible to say that one of the main conditioning factors of the landslides in the study area is lithology. In addition to lithology, many landslide conditioning factors are considered during the landslide susceptibility analyses. As a result of the analyses, the class of 5–10° of slope, the class of 180–225 of aspect, the class of 25–50 of altitude, Danisment formation of the lithological units, the slope units of geomorphology, the class of 800–1000 m of distance from faults (DFF, the class of 75–100 m of distance from drainage (DFD pattern, the class of 0–10m of distance from roads (DFR and the class of low or impermeable unit of relative permeability map have the higher probability values than the other classes. When compared with the produced landslide susceptibility map, most of the landslides identified in the study area are found to be located in the most (54% and moderate (40% susceptible zones. This assessment is
Rainfall and net infiltration probabilities for future climate conditions at Yucca Mountain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the best assessments are required to maximize the probability of successful repository sitting and design. As part of a performance assessment effort directed by the EPRI, the authors have used probabilistic methods to assess the magnitude and timing of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. A mathematical model for net infiltration previously published incorporated a probabilistic treatment of climate, surface hydrologic processes and a mathematical model of the infiltration process. In this paper, we present the details of the climatological analysis. The precipitation model is event-based, simulating characteristics of modern rainfall near Yucca Mountain, then extending the model to most likely values for different degrees of pluvial climates. Next the precipitation event model is fed into a process-based infiltration model that considers spatial variability in parameters relevant to net infiltration of Yucca Mountain. The model predicts that average annual net infiltration at Yucca Mountain will range from a mean of about 1 mm under present climatic conditions to a mean of at least 2.4 mm under full glacial (pluvial) conditions. Considerable variations about these means are expected to occur from year-to-year
Hu, Yaogang; Li, Hui; Liao, Xinglin; Song, Erbing; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Z.
2016-08-01
This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition was presented. Finally, two cases showed the validity of the proposed probability evaluation method in detecting early deterioration condition and in tracking their further deterioration for the critical components.
A Novel Adaptive Conditional Probability-Based Predicting Model for User’s Personality Traits
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Mengmeng Wang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available With the pervasive increase in social media use, the explosion of users’ generated data provides a potentially very rich source of information, which plays an important role in helping online researchers understand user’s behaviors deeply. Since user’s personality traits are the driving force of user’s behaviors, hence, in this paper, along with social network features, we first extract linguistic features, emotional statistical features, and topic features from user’s Facebook status updates, followed by quantifying importance of features via Kendall correlation coefficient. And then, on the basis of weighted features and dynamic updated thresholds of personality traits, we deploy a novel adaptive conditional probability-based predicting model which considers prior knowledge of correlations between user’s personality traits to predict user’s Big Five personality traits. In the experimental work, we explore the existence of correlations between user’s personality traits which provides a better theoretical support for our proposed method. Moreover, on the same Facebook dataset, compared to other methods, our method can achieve an F1-measure of 80.6% when taking into account correlations between user’s personality traits, and there is an impressive improvement of 5.8% over other approaches.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The evolution of the scalar probability density function (pdf), the conditional scalar dissipation rate, and other statistics including transport properties are studied for passive temperature fluctuations in decaying grid-generated turbulence. The effect of filtering and differentiating the time series is also investigated. For a nonzero mean temperature gradient it is shown that the pdf of the temperature fluctuations has pronounced exponential tails for turbulence Reynolds number (Rel) greater than 70 but below this value the pdf is close to Gaussian. The scalar dissipation rate, conditioned on the fluctuations, shows that there is a high expectation of dissipation in the presence of the large, rare fluctuations that produce the exponential tails. Significant positive correlation between the mean square scalar fluctuations and the instantaneous scalar dissipation rate is found when exponential tails occur. The case of temperature fluctuations in the absence of a mean gradient is also studied. Here, the results are less definite because the generation of the fluctuations (by means of fine heated wires) causes an asymmetry in the pdf. The results show, however, that the pdf is close to Gaussian and that the correlation between the mean square temperature fluctuations and the instantaneous scalar dissipation rate is very weak. For the linear profile case, measurements over the range 60≤Rel≤1100 show that the dimensionless heat flux Nu is proportional to Rel0.88 and that the transition from a Gaussian pdf to one with exponential tails occurs at Nu∼31, a value close to transitions observed in other recent mixing experiments conducted in entirely different turbulent flows
Accessing probable thermal histories through dispersed, partially-reset zircon (U-Th)/He ages
Powell, Jeremy; Schneider, David
2016-04-01
exhibited by the datasets. We do not recommend selecting only the youngest dates from samples or averaging (U-Th)/He dates, as these methods do not acknowledge the complexity of the (U-Th)/He system and potentially exclude non-obvious, but equally probable, geologic scenarios. To this extent, using the vertical profile approach to assess exhumation rates from cooling age data may also provide an inaccurate result if the strata have not been buried to sufficient temperatures to completely reset any prior thermal history. As an alternative, we analyzed more grains from individual samples and combine data from similar structural regions to assess regional trends in thermal history. We believe that this approach does an appropriate job of acknowledging the errors and assumptions involved in the technique while providing meaningful information on thermal history of a region. Thermal modeling of the Mackenzie Mountains data reveals that (1) a substantial sedimentary package was deposited following the Devonian and removed during Permo-Triassic cooling, and (2) the Cordilleran deformation front propagated through the study area from the Albian to the Paleocene, with a moderate increase in cooling rates between 75-67 Ma in the southwest, and 60-55 Ma at the deformation front.
Ozdemir, Adnan
2009-06-01
On 19 February 2007, a landslide occurred on the Alaardıç Slope, located 1.6 km south of the town of Yaka (Gelendost, Turkey.) Subsequently, the displaced materials transformed into a mud flow in Eğlence Creek and continued 750 m downstream towards the town of Yaka. The mass poised for motion in the Yaka Landslide source area and its vicinity, which would be triggered to a kinetic state by trigger factors such as heavy or sustained rainfall and/or snowmelt, poise a danger in the form of loss of life and property to Yaka with its population of 3,000. This study was undertaken to construct a susceptibility mapping of the vicinity of the Yaka Landslide’s source area and to relate it to movement of the landslide mass with the goal of prevention or mitigation of loss of life and property. The landslide susceptibility map was formulated by designating the relationship of the effecting factors that cause landslides such as lithology, gradient, slope aspect, elevation, topographical moisture index, and stream power index to the landslide map, as determined by analysis of the terrain, through the implementation of the conditional probability method. It was determined that the surface area of the Goksogut formation, which has attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100-1,300 m, a slope gradient of 15°-35° and a slope aspect between 0°-67.5° and 157°-247°. Loss of life and property may be avoided by the construction of structures to check the debris mass in Eğlence Creek, the cleaning of the canal which passes through Yaka, the broadening of the canal’s base area, elevating the protective edges along the canal and the establishment of a protective zone at least 10-m wide on each side of the canal to deter against damage from probable landslide occurrence and mud flow.
Gomez, Thomas A.; Winget, Donald E.; Montgomery, Michael H.; Kilcrease, Dave; Nagayama, Taisuke
2016-01-01
White dwarfs are interesting for a number of applications including studying equations of state, stellar pulsations, and determining the age of the universe.These interesting applications require accurate determination of surface conditions: temperatures and surface gravity (or mass).The most common technique to estimate the temperature and gravity is to find the model spectrun that best fits the observed spectra of a star (known as the spectroscopic method); however, this model rests on our ability to accurately model the hydrogen spectrum at high densities.There are currently disagreements between the spectroscopic method and other techniques to determine mass.We seek to resolve this issue by exploring the continuum lowering (or disappearance of states) of the hydrogen atom.The current formalism, called "occupation probability," defines some criteria for the isolated atom's bound state to be ionized, then extrapolates the continuous spectrum to the same energy threshold.The two are then combined to create the final cross-section.I introduce a new way of calculating the atomic spectrum by doing some averaging of the plasma interaction potential energy (previously used in the physics community) and directly integrating the Schrodinger equation.This technique is a major improvement over the Taylor expansion used to describe the ion-emitter interaction and removes the need of the occupation probability and treats continuum states and discrete states on the same footing in the spectrum calculation.The resulting energy spectrum is in fact many discrete states that when averaged over the electric field distribution in the plasma appears to be a continuum.In the low density limit, the two methods are in agreement, but show some differences at high densities (above 10$^{17} e/cc$) including line shifts near the ``continuum'' edge.
Evaluation of cable aging degradation based on plant operating condition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Extending the lifetime of nuclear power plant [(hereafter referred simply as ''NPP'')] is one of the most important concerns in the world nuclear industry. Cables are one of the long live items which have not been considered to be replaced during the design life of NPP. To extend the cable life beyond the design life, we need to prove that the design life is too conservative compared with the actual aging. Condition monitoring is one of the useful ways for evaluating the aging condition of cable. In order to simulate the natural aging in nuclear power plant, a study on accelerated aging needs to be conducted first. In this paper, evaluations of mechanical aging degradation for cable jacket were performed after accelerated aging under the continuous heating and intermittent heating. Contrary to general expectation, the intermittent heating to cable jacket showed low aging degradation, 50% break-elongation and 60% indenter modulus, compared with continuous heating. With the plant maintenance period of 1 month after every 12 or 18 months operation, we can easily deduce that the life time of cable jacket can be extended much longer than estimated through the general EQ (Environmental Qualification) test, which adopts continuous accelerated aging for determining cable life. Therefore, a systematic approach which considers the actual environment condition of nuclear power plant is required for determining the life of cables. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Veronica Biazzo
2000-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we illustrate an implementation with Maple V of some procedures which allow to exactly propagate precise and imprecise probability assessments. The extension of imprecise assessments is based on a suitable generalization of the concept of coherence of de Finetti. The procedures described are supported by some examples and relevant cases.
The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities
Meyer, C. D., Jr.
1979-01-01
The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hu, Y.; Li, H.; Liao, X;
2016-01-01
-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation...
A simple application of probability model for the mean age at marriage
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
An attempt has been made in this paper to examine the age pattern of marriage among Nepalese women. A lognormal distribution has been used and applied to the data from Nepal Fertility Survey (1986). The estimation procedure has been carried out by using method of moments and maximum likelihood method. (author). 6 refs, 1 tab
Wire system ageing assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fantoni, P.F. (Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) (Norway))
2009-07-15
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report contains the results of experiments performed in collaboration with Tecnatom SA, Spain, to compare several cable condition monitoring techniques including LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis) (au)
Performance of bolted closure joint elastomers under cask aging conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Verst, C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Sindelar, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Skidmore, E. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Daugherty, W. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
2015-07-23
The bolted closure joint of a bare spent fuel cask is susceptible to age-related degradation and potential loss of confinement function under long-term storage conditions. Elastomeric seals, a component of the joint typically used to facilitate leak testing of the primary seal that includes the metallic seal and bolting, is susceptible to degradation over time by several mechanisms, principally via thermo-oxidation, stress-relaxation, and radiolytic degradation under time and temperature condition. Irradiation and thermal exposure testing and evaluation of an ethylene-propylene diene monomer (EPDM) elastomeric seal material similar to that used in the CASTOR® V/21 cask for a matrix of temperature and radiation exposure conditions relevant to the cask extended storage conditions, and development of semiempirical predictive models for loss of sealing force is in progress. A special insert was developed to allow Compressive Stress Relaxation (CSR) measurements before and after the irradiation and/or thermal exposure without unloading the elastomer. A condition of the loss of sealing force for the onset of leakage was suggested. The experimentation and modeling being performed could enable acquisition of extensive coupled aging data as well as an estimation of the timeframe when loss of sealing function under aging (temperature/radiation) conditions may occur.
Minor and trace element composition and age of Yukon probable-microtektites
Boundy-Sanders, S. Q.; Hervig, R. L.
1993-01-01
Major, minor, and trace element composition of the candidate micro tektites from Yukon Territory suggest a possible impact site of hydrothermally altered limestone and sand or chert, or possibly a carbonatite. Their REE/chondrite curve is similar in character to, but higher than, shale composites of North America, Australia, and Europe. Relative to these same composites, the Yukon droplets are enriched in Y, F, S, Sr, P, Mn, Mg, and Ca. They are depleted in Rb, Li, Th, Nb, Ti, K, Na, Fe, Si, and Al. Biostratigraphic constraints on the droplets indicate they are Middle to Late Devonian, more likely Middle Devonian, in age.
Path dependence of lithium ion cells aging under storage conditions
Su, Laisuo; Zhang, Jianbo; Huang, Jun; Ge, Hao; Li, Zhe; Xie, Fengchao; Liaw, Bor Yann
2016-05-01
This work investigates path dependence of lithium ion cells that are stored under static and non-static conditions. In the static storage tests, the levels of temperature and state of charge (SOC) are kept constant. The results of 12 tests from a combination of three temperatures and four SOCs show that, as expected, the cell ages faster at higher temperature and higher SOC. However, the cell aging mode, while consistent for all the evaluated temperatures, is different at 95% SOC from that at lower SOCs. In the non-static storage tests, the levels of temperature and SOC vary with time during the test process. The effect of the sequence of stress levels on cell aging is studied statistically using the statistical method of analysis of variation (ANOVA). It is found that cell capacity fade is path independent of both SOC and temperature, while cell resistance increase is path dependent on SOC and path independent of temperature. Finally, rate-based empirical aging models are adopted to fit the cell aging in the static storage tests. The aging model for capacity fade is demonstrated to be applicable to the non-static tests with errors between -3% and +3% for all the tested conditions over 180 days.
The probability of generating the symmetric group with a commutator condition
Birulia, Raman
2012-01-01
Let B(n) be the set of pairs of permutations from the symmetric group of degree n with a 3-cycle commutator, and let A(n) be the set of those pairs which generate the symmetric or the alternating group of degree n. We find effective formulas for calculating the cardinalities of both sets. More precisely, we show that #B(n)/n! is a discrete convolution of the partition function and a linear combination of divisor functions, while #A(n)/n! is the product of a polynomial and Jordan's totient function. In particular, it follows that the probability that a pair of random permutations with a 3-cycle commutator generates the symmetric or the alternating group of degree n tends to zero as n tends to infinity, which makes a contrast with Dixon's classical result. Key elements of our proofs are Jordan's theorem from the 19th century, a formula by Ramanujan from the 20th century and a technique of square-tiled surfaces developed by French mathematicians Lelievre and Royer in the beginning of the 21st century. This paper...
[Anemia in women of reproductive age. The results of a national probability survey].
Martínez, H; González-Cossío, T; Flores, M; Rivera-Dommarco, J; Lezana, M A; Sepúlveda-Amor, J
1995-01-01
Iron deficiency is one of the most prevalent forms of malnutrition which is clinically known as anemia. Functional consequences of anemia include impairment of cardiovascular performance, limitation in productivity, higher incidence of low birth weight and premature delivery, and increased maternal mortality. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of anemia in women of reproductive age in Mexico. Data were collected by the Ministry of Health through a National Nutrition Survey in 1988, which draw a representative sample from four regions: North, Center, South and Federal District. Anemia was more prevalent in pregnant (18.17%) than in non-pregnant women (15.38%). Those women living in predominantly indigenous communities had higher prevalence of anemia (24.02%) than non-indigenous women (14.67%). Anemia was more prevalent in urban areas (15.54%) than in rural (13.56%). Mean +/- standard deviation values for hemoglobin were lower in pregnant women (12.5 +/- 1.6 g/dL) than in non-pregnant ones (13.7 +/- 1.6 g/dL). Consistently, the Northern and Southern regions were worse off than the Center and the Federal District. These data indicate that anemia is a public health problem in Mexico. The functional consequences of this deficiency justify interventions to treat and prevent it. PMID:7618111
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dekkers Jack CM
2003-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract An increased availability of genotypes at marker loci has prompted the development of models that include the effect of individual genes. Selection based on these models is known as marker-assisted selection (MAS. MAS is known to be efficient especially for traits that have low heritability and non-additive gene action. BLUP methodology under non-additive gene action is not feasible for large inbred or crossbred pedigrees. It is easy to incorporate non-additive gene action in a finite locus model. Under such a model, the unobservable genotypic values can be predicted using the conditional mean of the genotypic values given the data. To compute this conditional mean, conditional genotype probabilities must be computed. In this study these probabilities were computed using iterative peeling, and three Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods – scalar Gibbs, blocking Gibbs, and a sampler that combines the Elston Stewart algorithm with iterative peeling (ESIP. The performance of these four methods was assessed using simulated data. For pedigrees with loops, iterative peeling fails to provide accurate genotype probability estimates for some pedigree members. Also, computing time is exponentially related to the number of loci in the model. For MCMC methods, a linear relationship can be maintained by sampling genotypes one locus at a time. Out of the three MCMC methods considered, ESIP, performed the best while scalar Gibbs performed the worst.
Impact of aging conditions on mechanical properties of thermoplastic polyurethane
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this study, impact of environmental aging conditions on the mechanical properties of thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) was investigated. Especially, effect of temperature on water diffusion has been studied. Water-sorption experiments, tensile test and dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) were performed after immersion in distilled water at different temperatures (25, 70 and 90 oC). The sorption process was analyzed by gravimetric measurements at different temperatures. Also, diffusion coefficients of solvent molecules in the TPU samples were identified. Therefore the activation energy and the mixing enthalpy were deduced. The aging impact on some mechanical properties of this material has been investigated after various aging cycles. Degradation of mechanical properties was observed. In fact, elastic modulus and stress at 200% of strain were decreased. It was also shown that such degradation largely depends on both aging temperature and aging immersion duration. The storage modulus (E') was also affected by the hygrothermal (HT) environment. The modification of mechanical properties seems to be well correlated to structural observations obtained from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) photographs. Finally, through thermal aging experiments, it was deduced that the combination of temperature with water seems to be a major factor of TPU degradation.
Study on probability of failure for RPV nozzle region under severe accident condition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hwang, Il Soon; Oh, Young Jin; Sim, Sang Hoon [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea)
2002-04-01
Most of previous studies for creep rupture of RPV lower head under severe accident condition, have been focused on global failure of RPV lower head. In contrast, the local failure of the RPV nozzle region has not been studied in detail. This study focused the nozzle failure analysis into creep rupture evaluation of RPV lower head under severe accident condition, and this will help improve the safety assessment of nuclear power plants under severe accident conditions. The existence and features of nozzle failure in LAVA-ICI tested vessel of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and LHF-4 tested vessel of SNL, are examined. To understand the basic mechanical properties of nozzle material and weld metal, the tensile tests in various temperature levels and the creep rupture tests in various temperature and stress levels, are accomplished. The stress and deformation of LAVA-ICI experiments are analysed using measured basic mechanical properties. The failure time of Advanced Power Reactor 1400 (APR1400) in nozzle region was calculated using modified TMI-2 VIP model. Nozzle region failure characteristics was studied for SNL-LHF-4 experimental case using Finite Element Method (FEM). Using characteristics of nozzle failure, a new failure prediction experimental method was proposed for RPV nozzle failure. 19 refs., 43 figs. (Author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmed M. Hassan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Problem statement: Acute heat stress at marketing age especially in broiler chickens raised in open houses with reduced means of heat exchange leads to economic losses. The objective of this study was to determine beneficial effects of early age thermal conditioning in reducing adverse effects of acute heat stress and decrease losses. Approach: Ninety one day-old broiler chicks were randomly assigned to one of three treatments (n = 30: (1 control (normally raised, (2 early age thermal conditioning (exposed to temperature of 40±1°C for 24 h at 5th day of age, then raised as control chicks and (3 chronic stress (exposed to 33±2°C from day one till 6 weeks of age. At 42nd day of age, all chicks were subjected to acute heat stress of 39±2°C for 2 h. Blood samples were collected from all groups before and after exposure to acute heat stress. Results: Blood pH increased in both controls and thermally-conditioned chicks after exposure to acute heat stress coinciding with significant decrease in blood carbon dioxide pressure (pCo2 in controls only. Blood potassium level decreased in controls, while in thermally-conditioned or chronically-stressed no significant changes were observed. Blood sodium level showed a trend toward decreased levels in controls while a trend toward increased levels was observed in both thermally-conditioned and chronically-stressed birds. Importantly, significant reductions were observed in total erythrocyte count and hemoglobin level in chronically-stressed birds as compared to other groups before and after acute stress exposure. Hetrophil/lymphocyte ratio increased in both controls and thermally-conditioned chicks after acute heat exposure, but not in chronically-stressed birds. Conclusion: When exposed to acute heat stress at marketing age, chicks subjected to early age thermal conditioning responded very similar to birds adapted to chronic heat stress indicating a protective role of early age thermal conditioning.
Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report contains some test results of a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. (au)
Pustilnik, Lev
2013-01-01
We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable m...
Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report describes a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, which is based on Frequency Domain Reflectometry. This method resulted in the development of a system called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. LIRA is composed of a signal generator, a signal analyser and a simulator that can be used to simulate several failure/degradation scenarios and assess the accuracy and sensitivity of the LIRA system. Chapter 5 of this report describes an complementary approach based on positron measurement techniques, used widely in defect physics due to the high sensitivity to micro defects, in particular open volume defects. This report describes in details these methodologies, the results of field experiments and the proposed future work. (au)
Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fantoni, P.F. [Institutt for energiteknikk (Norway); Nordlund, A. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden)
2006-04-15
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report describes a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, which is based on Frequency Domain Reflectometry. This method resulted in the development of a system called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. LIRA is composed of a signal generator, a signal analyser and a simulator that can be used to simulate several failure/degradation scenarios and assess the accuracy and sensitivity of the LIRA system. Chapter 5 of this report describes an complementary approach based on positron measurement techniques, used widely in defect physics due to the high sensitivity to micro defects, in particular open volume defects. This report describes in details these methodologies, the results of field experiments and the proposed future work. (au)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The study addresses the issues of groundwater flow and particle transport in a 2-D heterogenous porous medium. We follow here the line of G. Dagan and Y. Rubin. In a series of articles these authors propose and represent the variables involves ((transmissivity, head, Darcy velocity, particle position and travel time) by means of stochastic processes. The (unconditional) moments are first derived by solving the partial differential equations corresponding to a 2-D flow in a saturated medium, with no recharge. In a second step, the variances of the processes are reduced bu taking local data into account within the conditional probabilities framework. In this document we present a complete theoretical study of the method and apply it on synthetical test cases. We deal with the following matters: study the impact of different data type and configurations on the conditional estimation of the flow and transport variables; study the robustness of the model for increasing levels of heterogeneity by means of comparison with the moments obtained by Monte-Carlo simulations. The method is enlarged to weakly un-stationary flow cases (non constant transmissivity and head gradient means) and applied on synthetical test cases. (author)
Age and condition assessments for fuel handling systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Throughout the nuclear industry, power plants are approaching, or in some cases have already exceeded, their originally forecasted operation life expectancy. This situation has forced nuclear power plant operators to shift greater amounts of their focus toward equipment reliability and maintenance, while simultaneously supporting increased power generation requirements, and reductions in forced outages. As a result, support organizations for the power plants, such as maintenance, spare parts, procurement, and engineering, are under more pressure than ever. In an effort to deal with this situation, programs are being developed to help manage the effects on critical components of age-related degradation. During recent years, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Canada(GEH-C) has been commissioned by both Bruce Power and Ontario Power Generation to perform assessments of their Fuel Handling systems. The Fuel Handling systems were identified as fundamentally different from other plant systems, and GEH-C, as the Fuel Handling OEM, was best positioned to perform these assessments. Due to the size of the plants, and the quantity of components in the system, the scopes of the assessments covered portions of the Life Cycle Management Programs which were different for each plant. The methodologies used varied, and evolved with lessons learned as the assessments progressed. In common was a desire by the plants to categorize the levels of risk posed by different components, and to identify their criticality to the plant in terms of both safety and operating performance. The challenge for the operating stations is to take information from these assessments and incorporate it into dynamic, living programs that can be used effectively to extend operational life. The presentation outlines the key aspects of age and condition-based assessments on Fuel Handling systems, and the lessons learned that are critical to the success of these initiatives.
Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.
1971-01-01
Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.
Dominant Motivation in Schoolchildren: Age Trends and Conditions of Development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I.Yu. Kulagina
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The paper addresses the issue of the development of dominant motivation, or motivation of oversituational level, regarded as the general vector that defines basic patterns of behavior of an individual in various situations and activities. Dominant motivation represents the attitude towards the world (towards other people and work and oneself and underpins personality orientation on the ontogenetic stage of personality stabilization. The paper describes data of an empirical study carried out on a sample of 403 children and adolescents using an inventory developed by the author. The data provide an insight into the population dynamics of motivation development in schoolage children and teenagers. As it was revealed, moral motivation actively develops in early school age, whereas egocentric and hedonistic motivation develops in adolescence. The paper provides characteristics both of motivational profiles that promote socialization in adolescents and of the ones that do not. It concludes that moral motivation dominates in favorable educational and upbringing conditions (in teenagers with normal intellectual development studying at ordinary schools and in gifted children and teenagers with high levels of intellectual development studying at gymnasiums, while hedonistic motivation dominates in children who are brought up in children's homes; homeless adolescents display no differentiation of motives at all
Egemen Unal; Resat Aydin; Mehmet Enes Gokler; Alaettin Unsal
2015-01-01
Background: We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of probable migraine, to examine the factors associated with probable migraine and to assess the level of sleep quality among women aged 20-45 who were living in the county town named Mahmudiye, in Eskisehir, in Turkey. Methods: The study was carried out in all women aged 20-45 years in Mahmudiye. 69.2% of women (n=570) comprised the study group. Questionnaire consisted of three parts: The first part included several socio-demographic, nutri...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Failure probability and crack initiation probability of a pipe is greatly affected by the stress caused by thermal fluctuation. The stress is affected by the temperature difference and with a hot-spot or a cold-spot. Crack initiates just only in the case of 150degC temperature difference with a hot-spot. If an initial crack exists, cumulative failure probability as of 10 years operation is 0.8 and 6.3 x 10-3 in the case of 75degC and 35degC temperature difference without hot-spot. In order to reduce the failure probability, it is necessary to reduce the temperature difference. In addition, eliminating the initial crack is effective to reduce the failure probability. (author)
Wire system ageing assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ekelund, M; Gedde, U.W. (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). Fibre and Polymer Technology, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, Stockholm (Sweden)); Fantoni, P.F. (Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), Halden (Norway))
2011-05-15
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. In this report 3 techniques for cable global ageing assessment were tested and evaluated. The EAB technique is a destructive, local technique that is often used as a reference for other methods. The indenter is a local, in-situ mechanical technique that is currently quite often used in NPPs. LIRA is an electrical method, full line, in-situ. LIRA correlated quite well with EAB and both tend to flatten when the ageing time reaches 40 years. The only cable type that was difficult to assess for all the 3 methods was the medium type in air environment. These tests considered only thermal ageing, up to 50 years and should be completed by considering also gamma irradiation ageing. (Author)
Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios
2016-06-01
Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.
The Development of Skin Conductance Fear Conditioning in Children from Ages 3 to 8 Years
Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.
2010-01-01
Although fear conditioning is an important psychological construct implicated in behavioral and emotional problems little is known about how it develops in early childhood. Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, this longitudinal study assessed skin conductance conditioned responses in 200 children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 years. Results demonstrated that in both boys and girls: (1) fear conditioning increased across age, particularly from ages 5 to 6 years, (2) t...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
10CFR 50.46 'Acceptance criteria for emergency core cooling systems for light-water nuclear power reactors' requires the LB-LOCA evaluation in reactor coolant system (RCS) piping. Based on risk informed regulation (RIR) option 3, re-definition of LB-LOCA is discussed in USA. The technical basis of re-definition of LB-LOCA is the extremely low probability of piping rupture in RCS piping. However, the probability of the piping rupture can not be determined from the field data because no rupture event in RCS piping has been reported. However, expert elicitation and probabilistic approach can be used to estimate the rupture frequency of RCS piping. Probabilistic approach can give us relative information on the rupture probability. Another advantage of the probabilistic approach is to inform the effect of variables by parametric analysis. In this study, leak and LOCA probabilities in RCS piping of domestic nuclear power plants (NPPs) under fatigue and stress corrosion cracking are evaluated by using the probabilistic piping integrity evaluation program (P-PIE) developed in this study
Ageing of portland cement concrete cured under moist conditions
Yu, Z.; Ye, G.; Van Breugel, K.; Chen, W
2014-01-01
Deterioration of microstructure in cement concrete will cause changes in the transport properties of the concrete. Transport properties at different ages of the concrete provide information about the microstructural changes of the material. A way to measure the transport properties, i.e. the chloride diffusion coefficient, in the laboratory is rapid chloride migration (RCM) Test. With this test, the resistance of concrete to chloride ingress is evaluated. Changing losing resistance represents...
Effect of physicochemical aging conditions on the composite-composite repair bond strength
Brendeke, Johannes; Ozcan, Mutlu
2007-01-01
Purpose: This study evaluated the effect of different physicochemical aging methods and surface conditioning techniques on the repair bond strength of composite. It was hypothesized that the aging conditions would decrease the repair bond strength and surface conditioning methods would perform simil
Ageing of low-firing prehistoric ceramics in hydrothermal conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petra Zemenová
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Remains of a prehistoric ceramic object, a moon-shaped idol from the Bronze Age found in archaeological site Zdiby near Prague in the Czech Republic, were studied especially in terms of the firing temperature. Archaeological ceramics was usually fired at temperatures below 1000 °C. It contained unstable non-crystalline products, residua after calcination of clay components of a ceramic material. These products as metakaolinite can undergo a reverse rehydration to a structure close to kaolinite. The aim of this work was to prove whether the identified kaolinite in archaeological ceramics is a product of rehydration. The model compound containing high amount of kaolinite was prepared in order to follow its changes during calcination and hydrothermal treatment. Archaeological ceramics and the model compound were treated by hydrothermal ageing and studied by XRF, XRD and IR analyses. It was proved that the presence of kaolinite in the border-parts of the archaeological object was not a product of rehydration, but that it originated from the raw materials.
Eye Conditions in Older Adults: Age-Related Macular Degeneration.
Iroku-Malize, Tochi; Kirsch, Scott
2016-06-01
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) causes a progressive loss of photoreceptors in the macula. It is the most common cause of legal blindness in the United States, and some form of AMD is thought to affect more than 9 million individuals. Risk factors include older age, smoking, dyslipidemia, obesity, white race, female sex, and a family history of AMD. There are two types of advanced AMD: nonexudative (dry or geographic atrophy) and exudative (wet or neovascular). Both cause progressive central vision loss with intact peripheral vision. Nonexudative AMD accounts for 80% to 90% of all advanced cases, and more than 90% of patients with severe vision loss have exudative AMD. On ophthalmoscopic examination, early findings include drusen (ie, yellow deposits in the retina). Prominent choroidal vessels, subretinal edema, and/or hemorrhage are seen in wet AMD. Regular eye examinations, visual field testing, fluorescein angiography, and optical coherence tomography are used for diagnosis and to guide management. There is no specific therapy for dry AMD, but antioxidant supplementation may be helpful. Intravitreal injection of a vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitor is the treatment of choice for wet AMD. Optical aids and devices can help to maximize function for patients with AMD. PMID:27348529
Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.
2010-01-01
Background: Poor fear conditioning characterizes adult psychopathy and criminality, but it is not known whether it is related to aggressive/antisocial behavior in early childhood. Methods: Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, electrodermal activity was recorded from 200 male and female children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and…
Ozcan, Mutlu; Barbosa, Silvia Helena; Melo, Renata Marques; Galhano, Graziela Avila Prado; Bottino, Marco Antonio
2007-01-01
Objectives. This study evaluated the effect of two different surface conditioning methods on the repair bond strength of a bis-GMA-adduct/bis-EMA/TEGDMA based resin composite after three aging conditions. Methods. Thirty-six composite resin blocks (Esthet X, Dentsply) were prepared (5 mm x 6 mm x 6
Muon capture probability of carbon and oxygen for CO, CO2, and COS under low-pressure gas conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
When a negatively charged muon is stopped in a substance, it is captured by an atom of the substance, and the muonic atom is formed. The muon capture process is significantly affected by the chemical environment of the atom and factors such as molecular structure (chemical effect). In this study, we performed muon irradiation for low-pressure CO, CO2, and COS molecules and measured the muonic X-rays emitted immediately after muon capture by an atom. In this paper, we quantitatively discuss the muon capture probability of each type of atom using the LMM model. (author)
Estimating extreme flood probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Estimates of the exceedance probabilities of extreme floods are needed for the assessment of flood hazard at Department of Energy facilities. A new approach using a joint probability distribution of extreme rainfalls and antecedent soil moisture conditions, along with a rainfall runoff model, provides estimates of probabilities for floods approaching the probable maximum flood. This approach is illustrated for a 570 km2 catchment in Wisconsin and a 260 km2 catchment in Tennessee
The Development of Skin Conductance Fear Conditioning in Children from Ages 3 to 8 Years
Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.
2010-01-01
Although fear conditioning is an important psychological construct implicated in behavioral and emotional problems, little is known about how it develops in early childhood. Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, this longitudinal study assessed skin conductance conditioned responses in 200 children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6,…
The food-conditioned place preference task in adolescent, adult and aged rats of both sexes
Rubinow, Marisa J.; Hagerbaumer, Diana A.; Juraska, Janice M.
2008-01-01
The rat basolateral amygdala shows neuroanatomical sex differences, continuing development after puberty and aging-related alterations. Implications for amygdala-dependent memory processes were explored here by testing male and female hooded rats in adolescence, adulthood and old age on the food-conditioned place preference task. While aged rats were unimpaired, adolescents failed to learn the task. This finding may be related to ongoing development of the basolateral amygdala and related mem...
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING OF THE PENSION AGE ON FINANCIAL CONDITION OF THE PENSION FUND
S. Kovalenko
2011-01-01
One of the main problems of pension system reforming such as retirement age raise is analized, retirement age raise influence on financial condition of pension system is determined, solutions of the given problem at the present stage of pension system reforming are offered.
Age-related decrease in motor cortical inhibition during standing under different sensory conditions
Papegaaij, Selma; Taube, Wolfgang; Hogenhout, Margot; Baudry, Stephane; Hortobagyi, Tibor
2014-01-01
Background: Although recent studies point to the involvement of the primary motor cortex in postural control, it is unknown if age-related deterioration of postural control is associated with changes in motor cortical circuits. We examined the interaction between age and sensory condition in the exc
Comparing the Relationship Between Age and Length of Disability Across Common Chronic Conditions
Jetha, Arif; Besen, Elyssa; Smith, Peter M
2016-01-01
Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the association between age and disability length across common chronic conditions. Methods: Analysis of 39,915 nonwork-related disability claims with a diagnosis of arthritis, diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, depression, low back pain, chronic pulmonary disease, or cancer. Ordinary least squares regression models examined age-length of disability association across chronic conditions. Results: Arthritis (76.6 days), depression (...
Gudder, Stanley P
2014-01-01
Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially......The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....
Do Early Life and Contemporaneous Macro-conditions explain Health at Older Ages?
Alessie, Rob; Deeg, Dorly; Portrait, France
2008-01-01
The paper presents an approach which thoroughly assesses the role of early life and contemporaneous macro-conditions in explaining health at older ages. In particular, we investigate the role of exposure to infectious diseases and economic conditions during infancy and childhood, as well as the effe
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma
Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.
2016-01-01
Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218
Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.
Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L
2016-02-01
Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218
Water Age Responses to Weather Conditions in a Hyper-Eutrophic Channel Reservoir in Southern China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Du
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Channel reservoirs have the characteristics of both rivers and lakes, in which hydrodynamic conditions and the factors affecting the eutrophication process are complex and highly affected by weather conditions. Water age at any location in the reservoir is used as an indicator for describing the spatial and temporal variations of water exchange and nutrient transport. The hyper-eutrophic Changtan Reservoir (CTR in Southern China was investigated. Three weather conditions including wet, normal, and dry years were considered for assessing the response of water age by using the coupled watershed model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model Environmental Fluid Hydrodynamic Code (EFDC. The results showed that the water age in CTR varied tremendously under different weather conditions. The averaged water ages at the downstream of CTR were 3 d, 60 d, and 110 d, respectively in the three typical wet, normal, and dry years. The highest water ages at the main tributary were >70 d, >100 d, and >200 d, respectively. The spatial distribution of water ages in the tributaries and the reservoir were mainly affected by precipitation. This paper provides useful information on water exchange and transport pathways in channel reservoir, which will be helpful in understanding nutrient dynamics for controlling algal blooms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yeonho Park
2014-06-01
Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of accelerated aging conditions on the long-term flexural behavior and ductility of reinforced concrete (RC members with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP bars (RC-GFRP specimen and steel bars (RC-steel specimen. A total of thirty six specimens were designed with different amounts of reinforcement with three types of reinforcing bars (i.e., helically wrapped GFRP, sand-coated surface GFRP and steel. Eighteen specimens were subjected to sustained loads and accelerated aging conditions (i.e., 47 °C and 80% relative humidity in a chamber. The flexural behavior of specimens under 300-day exposure was compared to that of the companion specimens without experiencing accelerated aging conditions. Results indicate that the accelerated aging conditions reduced flexural capacity in not only RC-steel, but also RC-GFRP specimens, with different rates of reduction. Different types of GFRP reinforcement exhibited different rates of degradation of the flexural capacity when embedded in concrete under the same exposure conditions. Several existing models were compared with experimental results for predicting the deflection and deformability index for specimens. Bischoff and Gross’s model exhibited an excellent prediction of the time-dependent deflections. Except for the deformability index proposed by Jaeger, there was no general trend related to the aging duration. This study recommends the need for further investigation on the prediction of the deformability index.
Early-Age Strength of Ultra-High Performance Concrete in Various Curing Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jong-Sup Park
2015-08-01
Full Text Available The strength of Ultra-High Performance Concrete (UHPC can be sensitively affected by the curing method used. However, in contrast to the precast plant production of UHPC where a standard high-temperature steam curing is available, an optimum curing condition is rarely realized with cast-in-place UHPC. Therefore, the trend of the compressive strength development of UHPC was experimentally investigated in this study, with a focus on early-age strength by assuming the various curing conditions anticipated on site. Concrete specimens were cured under different conditions with variables including curing temperature, delay time before the initiation of curing, duration of curing, and moisture condition. Several conditions for curing are proposed that are required when the cast-in-place UHPC should gain a specified strength at an early age. It is expected that the practical use of UHPC on construction sites can be expedited through this study.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This work validates the use of integrated polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) film sensors for dynamic testing, even after being subjected to UV-thermo-hygro-mechanical accelerated ageing conditions. The verification of PVDF sensors’ survivability in these environmental conditions, typically confronted by civil and military aircraft, is the main concern of the study. The evaluation of survivability is made by a comparison of dynamic testing results provided by the PVDF patch sensors subjected to an accelerated ageing protocol, and those provided by neutral non-aged sensors (accelerometers). The available measurements are the time-domain response signals issued from a modal analysis procedure, and the corresponding frequency response functions (FRF). These are in turn used to identify the constitutive properties of the samples by extraction of the modal parameters, in particular the natural frequencies. The composite specimens in this study undergo different accelerated ageing processes. After several weeks of experimentation, the samples exhibit a loss of stiffness, represented by a decrease in the elastic moduli down to 10%. Despite the ageing, the integrated PVDF sensors, subjected to the same ageing conditions, are still capable of providing reliable data to carry out a close followup of these changes. This survivability is a determinant asset in order to use integrated PVDF sensors to perform structural health monitoring (SHM) in the future of full-scale composite aeronautical structures. (paper)
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Dielectric Spectroscopy of Bisphenol A Epoxy Resin Aged in Wet and Dry Conditions
Vaishampayan, Deep
2009-01-01
This thesis presents the laboratory test data on Bisphenol A epoxy insulation.This thesis work deals with electrical, mechanical and thermal analysis of Bisphenol A epoxy resin. The main aim of this thesis work was to examine if dry and wet aging changes the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the epoxies and measure the impact on the complex permittivity under different ageing conditions namely dry and wet. During ageing the samples (epoxy discs and dog bones) were kept in water at 20°C, 45...
Time-dependent Early-age Behaviors of Concrete under Restrained Condition
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
MA Xinwei; CAO Lixin; R D Hooton; H Lam; NIU Changren
2007-01-01
To investigate the early-age behaviors of concrete under a restrained condition, a set of apparatus was developed. In this way, the tensile creep and other early-age properties can be investigated in depth. By measuring the modulus of elasticity of concrete, synchronous shrinkage of concrete and steel rings and free shrinkage of concrete, the deformations of concrete ring can be quantified respectively. The experimental results show the tensile stress in concrete is time-dependent, and the stress at cracking is much lower than the tensile strength at that age; the tensile creep plays an important role in relaxing the tensile stress and postponing the cracking of concrete.
Effect of age condition on fatigue properties of 2E12 aluminum alloy
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
YAN Liang; DU Feng-shan; DAI Sheng-long; YANG Shou-jie
2010-01-01
The fatigue behaviors of 2E12 aluminum alloy in T3 and T6 conditions at room temperature in air were investigated.The microstructures and fatigue fracture surfaces of the alloy were examined by transmission electron microscopy(TEM)and scanning electron microscopy(SEM).The results show that the alloy exhibits higher fatigue crack propagation(FCP)resistance in T3condition than in T6 condition,the fatigue life is increased by 54% and the fatigue crack growth rate(FCGR)decreases significantly.The fatigue fractures of the alloy in T3 and T6 conditions are transgranular.But in T3 condition,secondary cracks occur and fatigue striations are not clear.In T6 condition,ductile fatigue striations are observed.The effect of aging conditions on fatigue behaviors is explained in terms of the slip planarity of dislocations and the cyclic slip reversibility.
Zangooei Dovom, Hossein; Shafahi, Yousef; Zangooei Dovom, Mehdi
2013-01-01
Several studies have investigated road traffic deaths, but few have compared by road user type. Iran, with an estimated 44 road traffic deaths per 100,000 population in 2002 had higher road traffic deaths than any other country for which reliable estimates can be made. So, the present study was conducted on road death data and identified fatal accident distribution by age, gender and head injury as well as the influences of age and gender on deaths at accident scenes for all road user groups. Data used in this study are on fatal road accidents recorded by forensic medicine experts of the Khorasan Razavi province in Mashhad, the capital of the province, the second largest city and the largest place of pilgrimage, immigration and tourism in Iran. Chi-square test and odds ratio were used to identify the relation of death place with age and gender in 2495 fatal road accidents from 2006 to 2009. The t-test and analysis of variance were employed for continues variable, age, to compare males' and females' mean age for all road user categories. For two genders, all three groups of fatalities (pedestrian, motorcyclist and motor vehicle occupant) had a peak at the ages of 21-30. The youngest were male motorcyclists (mean age = 28). Old pedestrians were included in road deaths very much, too. Male/female overall ratio was 3.41 and the highest male/female ratio was related to motorcyclists (14). The overall ratio of head injury to other organ injuries (torso and underbody) was 2.51 and pedestrians had the largest amount of head injury (38.2%). Regarding death at accident scene, for all road users, gender did not have any significant relation with death at the scene (P-value > 0.1); on the contrary, age had significant relation (P-value occupants 31-40 died the most at accident scenes. Identifying the most endangered groups of road accident fatalities, which was conducted in this study, is invaluable for the appropriate design of prevention strategies and allocation of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A severe accident has inherently significant uncertainties due to the complex phenomena and wide range of conditions. Because of its high temperature and pressure, performing experimental validation and practical application are extremely difficult. With these difficulties, there has been few experimental researches performed and there is no plant-specific experimental data. Instead, computer codes have been developed to simulate the accident and have been used conservative assumptions and margins. This study is an effort to reduce the uncertainty in the probabilistic safety assessment and produce a realistic and physical-based failure probability. The methodology was developed and applied to the OPR1000. The creep rupture failure probabilities of reactor coolant system (RCS) components were evaluated under a station blackout severe accident with all powers lost and no recovery of steam generator auxiliary feed-water. The MELCOR 1.8.6 code was used to obtain the plant-specific pressure and temperature history of each part of the RCS and the creep rupture failure times were calculated by the rate-dependent creep rupture model with the plant-specific data. (author)
Early-Age Strength of Ultra-High Performance Concrete in Various Curing Conditions
Jong-Sup Park; Young Jin Kim; Jeong-Rae Cho; Se-Jin Jeon
2015-01-01
The strength of Ultra-High Performance Concrete (UHPC) can be sensitively affected by the curing method used. However, in contrast to the precast plant production of UHPC where a standard high-temperature steam curing is available, an optimum curing condition is rarely realized with cast-in-place UHPC. Therefore, the trend of the compressive strength development of UHPC was experimentally investigated in this study, with a focus on early-age strength by assuming the various curing conditions ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias Christopher; Trujillo, Ana B.
2007-03-01
Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basis of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.
Benzarti, Karim; QUIERTANT, Marc; Chataigner, Sylvain; Aubagnac, Christophe; Nishizaki, Itaru; Kato, Y.
2008-01-01
The durability of concrete slabs strengthened by bonded composite materials has been investigated in the framework of an international cooperation between two French and Japanese research institutes. Time evolution of the concrete/composite adhesive bond strength was studied under both controlled and environmental ageing conditions, by using different mechanical characterization methods. The first results of this ongoing experimental campaign are presented.
A study on the aging degradation of ethylene-propylene-diene monomer (EPDM) under LOCA condition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The aging degradation and lifetime assessment of a domestic class 1E Ethylene-Propylene-Diene-Monomer (EPDM), which is a popular insulating elastomer for electrical cables in the nuclear power plants, were studied for equipment qualification verification under the Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. The specimens were acceleratively aged, underwent a LOCA environment, as well as tested mechanically, thermo-gravimetrically, and spectroscopically according to the American Society of the Testing of Materials (ASTM) procedures. The tensile test results revealed that the elongation at break gradually decreased with an increasing aging temperature. The lifetime of EPDM aged isothermally at 140 .deg. C was 1,316 hours and reduced to 1,120 hours after experiencing the severe accident test. The activation energies of the elongation reduction were 1.10 ± 0.196 eV and 0.93 ± 0.191 eV before and after the LOCA condition, respectively. The TGA test results also showed that the activation energy of the aging decomposition decreased from 1.35 eV to 1.02 eV after undergoing the LOCA environment. Although the mechanical property changes were discernibly observed during the aging process, along with the LOCA simulation, the FT-IR analysis showed that the spectroscopic peaks and their intensities did not alter significantly. Therefore, it can be concluded that the degradation of the domestic class 1E EPDM due to aging can be tolerable, even in severe accident conditions such as LOCA, and thus it qualifies as a suitable insulating material for electrical cables in the nuclear power plants
A study on the aging degradation of ethylene-propylene-diene monomer (EPDM) under LOCA condition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Seo, Yong Dae; Lee, Hyun Seon; Kim, Yong Soo [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Song, Chi Sung [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2011-06-15
The aging degradation and lifetime assessment of a domestic class 1E Ethylene-Propylene-Diene-Monomer (EPDM), which is a popular insulating elastomer for electrical cables in the nuclear power plants, were studied for equipment qualification verification under the Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. The specimens were acceleratively aged, underwent a LOCA environment, as well as tested mechanically, thermo-gravimetrically, and spectroscopically according to the American Society of the Testing of Materials (ASTM) procedures. The tensile test results revealed that the elongation at break gradually decreased with an increasing aging temperature. The lifetime of EPDM aged isothermally at 140 .deg. C was 1,316 hours and reduced to 1,120 hours after experiencing the severe accident test. The activation energies of the elongation reduction were 1.10 {+-} 0.196 eV and 0.93 {+-} 0.191 eV before and after the LOCA condition, respectively. The TGA test results also showed that the activation energy of the aging decomposition decreased from 1.35 eV to 1.02 eV after undergoing the LOCA environment. Although the mechanical property changes were discernibly observed during the aging process, along with the LOCA simulation, the FT-IR analysis showed that the spectroscopic peaks and their intensities did not alter significantly. Therefore, it can be concluded that the degradation of the domestic class 1E EPDM due to aging can be tolerable, even in severe accident conditions such as LOCA, and thus it qualifies as a suitable insulating material for electrical cables in the nuclear power plants
Influence of ambient conditions on the ageing behaviour of plasma-treated PET surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Plasma treatment is often used to modify the surface properties of polymer films, since it offers numerous advantages over the conventional surface modification techniques. However, plasma-treated polymer films have a tendency to revert back to the untreated state (ageing process). Therefore, the stability of plasma induced changes on polymer surfaces over a desired period of time is a very important issue. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of storage conditions (relative humidity, temperature and pressure) on the ageing behaviour in air of plasma-treated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) films. Plasma treatment is performed using a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) operating in air at medium pressure (5.0 kPa). Results show that the ageing process can be suppressed by storing the PET films at low temperature or by decreasing the relative humidity of the surrounding air. In this paper, it is also shown that decreasing pressure has no influence on the ageing process
Fougère, Bertrand; Vellas, Bruno; Billet, Sylvain; Martin, Perrine J; Gallucci, Maurizio; Cesari, Matteo
2015-11-01
The rapid growth in the number of older adults has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures. Aging leads to a decline and deterioration of functional properties at the cellular, tissue and organ level. This loss of functional properties yields to a loss of homeostasis and decreased adaptability to internal and external stress. Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness, weight loss, and low activity that is associated with adverse health outcomes. Frailty manifests as an age-related, biological vulnerability to stressors and decreased physiological reserves. Ambient air pollution exposure affects human health, and elderly people appear to be particularly susceptible to its adverse effects. The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of air pollution in the modulation of several biological mechanisms involved in aging. Evidence is presented on how air pollution can modify the bidirectional association between successful and pathological aging throughout the frailty conditions. PMID:26462883
Early-age cold conditioning of broilers: effects of timing and temperature.
Shahir, M H; Dilmagani, S; Tzschentke, B
2012-01-01
1. The aim of the present study was to determine the effects of early-age cold conditioning (CC) on performance, ascites mortality, thyroid hormones status and immune response (leucocytes count) of broiler chickens. 2. A total of 336 chicks at 2 and 3 d of age were exposed to 20 or 25°C (for 3 or 6 h) in a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment, while a control group was kept under normal temperature conditions (30°C). Thereafter, both control and cold conditioned birds were reared under standard conditions until 42 d of age. 3. The results showed that performance (weight gain and feed efficiency) was improved by CC at the end of the rearing period. Carcase traits (breast, thigh and abdominal fat percentage) were not affected by different treatments. Heart weight was lower in cold conditioned birds accompanied with lower ascites mortality. Total leucocyte count was higher in CC birds. Higher concentrations of thyroxin (T(4)) were found in plasma of treated groups, while triiodothyronine (T(3)) to T(4) ratio was decreased. 4. In conclusion, it seems that early age CC improves performance and reduces ascites mortality of broilers through altered thyroid hormones metabolism and leucocyte function. According to the results, the best timing for CC of broilers was 20°C for 6 h at the age of 2 d, and no significant benefit was observed by repeated CC. PMID:23130589
Condition base maintenance for nuclear power plants with regards to ageing management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ageing management of plants is a multifaceted issue where materials along with the degradation mechanism form one of the most important factors. Condition monitoring techniques and periodic inspection programme allow detection, identification and evaluation of the degradation of structures, systems and components at the very incipient stage so that the degradation can be attended and timely mitigatory actions initiated. Non-destructive examinations as part of condition monitoring play a key role in the health assessment and ageing management in NPPs. It is intended to discuss in this paper an overview of condition monitoring techniques currently in use and the efforts for the remnant life analysis as well as the refurbishment in Indian nuclear power plants. (author)
Sathyachandran, S.; Roy, D. P.; Boschetti, L.
2010-12-01
Spatially and temporally explicit mapping of the amount of biomass burned by fire is needed to estimate atmospheric emissions of green house gases and aerosols. The instantaneous Fire Radiative Power (FRP) [units: W] is retrieved at active fire detections from mid-infrared wavelength remotely sensed data and can be used to estimate the rate of biomass consumed. Temporal integration of FRP measurements over the duration of the fire provides the Fire Radiative Energy (FRE) [units: J] that has been shown to be linearly related to the total biomass burned [units: g]. However, FRE, and thus biomass burned retrieval, is sensitive to the satellite spatial and temporal sampling of FRP which can be sparse under cloudy conditions and with polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS. In this paper the FRE is derived in a new way as the product of the fire duration and the first moment of the FRP power law probability distribution. MODIS FRP data retrieved over savanna fires in Australia and deforestation fires in Brazil are shown to have power law distributions with different scaling parameters that are related to the fire energy in these two contrasting systems. The FRE derived burned biomass estimates computed using this new method are compared to estimates using the conventional temporal FRP integration method and with literature values. The results of the comparison suggest that the new method may provide more reliable burned biomass estimates under sparse satellite sampling conditions if the fire duration and the power law distribution parameters are characterized a priori.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Bayes' theorem of conditional probabilities is shown as an alternative to unfold the neutron u x energy distribution, Φ (E), from neutron activation measurements of different target material, A∞i at RECH-1 reactor core at CCHEN and the corresponding tabulated cross sectionsσ, since A∞ i = J∞ o σi (E)Φ(E)d E,→A∞i = Σn j = 1σijΦj. The unfolding algorithms used in the analysis of target activation to obtain the neutron flux energy spectrum of a nuclear reactor core in similar devices worldwide, need an a priori knowledge of the spectrum shape to solve the inverse problem of obtaining Φj. The advantage of using the Bayes based unfolding iterative algorithm is that an a priori knowledge of the neutron u x spectrum is not needed to obtain the experimental spectrum. In fact it is possible to start iterating with an uniform distribution. This unfolding algorithm have been used recently to solve analogue problems in nuclear physics such obtaining feeding probabilities in total gamma spectroscopy beta decay measurements, and to obtain the neutron energy background at Can franc Underground Laboratories using 3He detectors embedded in individual polyethylene blocks of different sizes. Furthermore, using this algorithm to obtain neutron energy spectrum from a nuclear reactor is a novel work, extending the applicability of the method. In this work, due the activation measurements have not been done yet, an analysis of the unfolding algorithm is presented using real tabulated cross sections and starting the iterations from an uniform u x distribution
Woodruff-Pak, Diana S.; Seta, Susan E.; Roker, LaToya A.; Lehr, Melissa A.
2007-01-01
The aim of this study was to examine parameters affecting age differences in eyeblink classical conditioning in a large sample of young and middle-aged rabbits. A total of 122 rabbits of mean ages of 4 or 26 mo were tested at inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) of 600 or 750 msec in the delay or trace paradigms. Paradigm affected both age groups…
Fatigue and Creep Crack Propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 in the Annealed and Aged Conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Julian K. Benz; Richard N. Wright
2013-10-01
The crack propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 was studied under various conditions. Elevated temperature fatigue and creep-fatigue crack growth experiments were conducted at 650 and 800 degrees C under constant stress intensity (triangle K) conditions and triangular or trapezoidal waveforms at various frequencies on as-received, aged, and carburized material. Environmental conditions included both laboratory air and characteristic VHTR impure helium. As-received Alloy 617 displayed an increase in the crack growth rate (da/dN) as the frequency was decreased in air which indicated a time-dependent contribution component in fatigue crack propagation. Material aged at 650°C did not display any influence on the fatigue crack growth rates nor the increasing trend of crack growth rate with decreasing frequency even though significant microstructural evolution, including y’ (Ni3Al) after short times, occurred during aging. In contrast, carburized Alloy 617 showed an increase in crack growth rates at all frequencies tested compared to the material in the standard annealed condition. Crack growth studies under quasi-constant K (i.e. creep) conditions were also completed at 650 degrees C and a stress intensity of K = 40 MPa9 (square root)m. The results indicate that crack growth is primarily intergranular and increased creep crack growth rates exist in the impure helium environment when compared to the results in laboratory air. Furthermore, the propagation rates (da/dt) continually increased for the duration of the creep crack growth either due to material aging or evolution of a crack tip creep zone. Finally, fatigue crack propagation tests at 800 degrees C on annealed Alloy 617 indicated that crack propagation rates were higher in air than impure helium at the largest frequencies and lowest stress intensities. The rates in helium, however, eventually surpass the rates in air as the frequency is reduced and the stress intensity is decreased which was not observed at 650
Fatigue and creep crack propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 in the annealed and aged conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The crack propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 was studied under various conditions. Elevated temperature fatigue and creep-fatigue crack growth experiments were conducted at 650 and 800 deg. C under constant stress intensity (ΔK) conditions and triangular or trapezoidal waveforms at various frequencies on as-received, aged, and carburized material. Environmental conditions included both laboratory air and characteristic VHTR impure helium. As-received Alloy 617 displayed an increase in the crack growth rate (da/dN) as the frequency was decreased in air which indicated a time-dependent contribution component in fatigue crack propagation. Material aged at 650 deg. C did not display any influence on the fatigue crack growth rates nor the increasing trend of crack growth rate with decreasing frequency even though significant microstructural evolution, including γ' (Ni3Al) after short times, occurred during ageing. In contrast, carburized Alloy 617 showed an increase in crack growth rates at all frequencies tested compared to the material in the standard annealed condition. Crack growth studies under quasi-constant K (i.e. creep) conditions were also completed at 650 deg. C and a stress intensity of K = 40 MPa√(m). The results indicate that crack growth is primarily intergranular and increased creep crack growth rates exist in the impure helium environment when compared to the results in laboratory air. Furthermore, the propagation rates (da/dt) continually increased for the duration of the creep crack growth either due to material ageing or evolution of a crack tip creep zone. Finally, fatigue crack propagation tests at 800 deg. C on annealed Alloy 617 indicated that crack propagation rates were higher in air than impure helium at the largest frequencies and lowest stress intensities. The rates in helium, however, eventually surpass the rates in air as the frequency is reduced and the stress intensity is decreased which was not observed at 650 deg. C. (authors)
Bozhkov, A I; Kovaleva, M K; Menzianova, N G
2011-01-01
The characteristics of the cells epigenotypes Dunaliella viridis Teod. in the process of chronological and replicative aging were investigated. By 40th day of accumulative cultivation (which coincided with the stationary growth phase) DNA content in the cells of Dunaliella viridis increased 2 times, triacylglycerides 3 times, beta-carotene and carbonyl proteins 2 times, RNA content decreased in comparison with cells in exponential growth phase, i. e., the 40th day of growth of culture forms the age-related epigenotype. 4 received subcultures were being transplanted during 2 years in mid-logarithmic growth phase (subculture-10), early stationary phase of growth (subculture-20), in the mid-stationary growth phase (subculture-30), and late stationary growth phase (subculture-40). It is shown that epigenotype of subculture-10 remained unchanged over 2 years of cultivation, i. e., it does not manifest replicative aging. At the same time, the subculture-20, although long enough (at least 40 passages), maintained epigenotype characteristic of young cultures, and showed age-related changes. Pronounced age-dependent changes of epigenotype in the course of cultivation were identified for subculture-30, and subculture-40 was characterized by unstable epigenotype. Thus, cultivation conditions determine the intensity of replicative aging in Dunaliella viridis. PMID:21809617
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
New Zealand population and cancer statistics have been used to derive the probability that an existing cancer in an individual was the result of a known exposure to radiation. Hypothetical case histories illustrate how sex, race, age at exposure, age at presentation with disease, and the type of cancer affect this probability. The method can be used now to identify claims in which a link between exposure and disease is very strong or very weak, and the types of cancer and population sub-groups for which radiation is most likely to be the causative agent. Advantages and difficulties in using a probability of causation approach in legal or compensation hearings are outlined. The approach is feasible for any carcinogen for which reasonable risk estimates can be made
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Aging management through condition monitoring of ASCo solenoid valves and NAMCO limit switches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faced with increasing deregulation in the power industry, competition from independent power producers (IPPs) and aging nuclear power plants, utilities are looking at ways to cut their generation costs to remain competitive. Besides the capital and fuel costs that are fixed, utilities are burdened with the ever escalating operation and maintenance costs and are studying means to control aging of their plants and improve plant performance. This paper presents methods for reducing periodic replacement costs for 2 types of equipment. These methods predict and control aging through baseline material characteristic/performance criteria and periodic condition monitoring. The equipment to which these methods are applied have numerous applications in the plant. The methodologies presented herein can be extended to cover all safety and risk significant components in the plant that are either important to plant safety and operation and/or are expensive to replace
Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging
Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, YoungJin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae
2015-01-01
In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited b...
Park, Yeonho; Kim, Young; Lee, Swoo-Heon
2014-01-01
This study investigates the impact of accelerated aging conditions on the long-term flexural behavior and ductility of reinforced concrete (RC) members with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars (RC-GFRP specimen) and steel bars (RC-steel specimen). A total of thirty six specimens were designed with different amounts of reinforcement with three types of reinforcing bars (i.e., helically wrapped GFRP, sand-coated surface GFRP and steel). Eighteen specimens were subjected to sustained load...
Yeonho Park; Young Hoon Kim; Swoo-Heon Lee
2014-01-01
This study investigates the impact of accelerated aging conditions on the long-term flexural behavior and ductility of reinforced concrete (RC) members with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars (RC-GFRP specimen) and steel bars (RC-steel specimen). A total of thirty six specimens were designed with different amounts of reinforcement with three types of reinforcing bars (i.e., helically wrapped GFRP, sand-coated surface GFRP and steel). Eighteen specimens were subjected to sustained lo...
RETIREMENT AND DRUG ABUSE: THE CONDITIONING ROLE OF AGE AND RETIREMENT TRAJECTORY1
BACHARACH, SAMUEL; Bamberger, Peter A.; Sonnenstuhl, William J.; Vashdi, Dana
2008-01-01
Although recent research on the link between retirement and drinking behavior among older adults suggests that retirement may also serve as a risk factor for drug abuse, the latter association has yet to be subject to rigorous research. We examined this association, as well as the possible conditioning effects of age and retirement trajectory, using a sample of 994 retirement-eligible workers (some having retired, others deferring their retirement) from 3 blue collar employment sectors: (e.g....
Biemans, BAM; Van der Zee, EA; Daan, S.
2003-01-01
Active shock avoidance was used to explore the impact of behavioural stimulation on the neurochemistry of the suprachiasmatic nucleus. We have found previously that the expression of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors in the suprachiasmatic nucleus of young rats was significantly enhanced 24 hours after fear conditioning. Here, we investigated whether this observation is age-dependent. We used 26 month-old Wistar rats with a deteriorated circadian system, and compared them with young rats (4 ...
BAROGHEL BOUNY, Véronique; DIERKENS, Michaël; WANG, X; SOIVE, A; SAILLIO, Mickael; THIERY, Mickaël; THAUVIN, B
2013-01-01
Long-term studies under various natural exposure conditions are still needed in order to understand and quantify ageing and durability of concrete structures, in particular in the case of mixtures which incorporate supplementary cementitious materials (e.g. fly ash). With this purpose, a large-scale and long-term experimental program was initiated a lot of years ago by the LPC network within the framework of the French national project 'BHP 2000'. From then, further researches have been carri...
Climatic Conditions for modelling the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the ice age cycle
Abe-Ouchi, A.; Segawa, T; F. Saito
2007-01-01
The ice sheet-climate interaction as well as the climatic response to orbital parameters and atmospheric CO_{2} content are examined in order to drive an ice sheet model throughout an ice age cycle. Feedback processes between ice sheet and atmosphere are analyzed by numerical experiments using a high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) under different conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum. Among the proposed processes, the ice albedo feedback, the elevation-mass ba...
Novak, Alison C; Deshpande, Nandini
2014-06-01
The ability to safely negotiate obstacles is an important component of independent mobility, requiring adaptive locomotor responses to maintain dynamic balance. This study examined the effects of aging and visual-vestibular interactions on whole-body and segmental control during obstacle crossing. Twelve young and 15 older adults walked along a straight pathway and stepped over one obstacle placed in their path. The task was completed under 4 conditions which included intact or blurred vision, and intact or perturbed vestibular information using galvanic vestibular stimulation (GVS). Global task performance significantly increased under suboptimal vision conditions. Vision also significantly influenced medial-lateral center of mass displacement, irrespective of age and GVS. Older adults demonstrated significantly greater trunk pitch and head roll angles under suboptimal vision conditions. Similar to whole-body control, no GVS effect was found for any measures of segmental control. The results indicate a significant reliance on visual but not vestibular information for locomotor control during obstacle crossing. The lack of differences in GVS effects suggests that vestibular information is not up-regulated for obstacle avoidance. This is not differentially affected by aging. In older adults, insufficient visual input appears to affect ability to minimize anterior-posterior trunk movement despite a slower obstacle crossing time and walking speed. Combined with larger medial-lateral deviation of the body COM with insufficient visual information, the older adults may be at a greater risk for imbalance or inability to recover from a possible trip when stepping over an obstacle. PMID:24746603
Frounfelker, Rochelle; Klodnick, Vanessa Vorhies; Mueser, Kim T.; Todd, Sara
2013-01-01
Objective There is little information on trauma, PTSD and associated risk factors in transition age youth with mental health conditions. This study aimed at understanding the correlates and predictors of PTSD in transition age youth residing in supported community housing. Methods Clinical assessment data on 84 transition age youth between the ages of 16 and 21 were analyzed. Chi-square analyses and t-tests were used to compare youth with a diagnosis of PTSD to those without a PTSD diagnosis. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to identify unique predictors of PTSD. Results Of the 84 individuals, 79 (94%) reported a history of trauma, of whom 30 (36%) had PTSD. Sexual abuse, female gender, and involvement in the criminal justice system were significantly associated with a PTSD diagnosis. Sexual abuse was the only unique predictor of PTSD. Conclusions Transition age youth residing in supported community housing demonstrated increased rates of trauma exposure and PTSD compared to the general adolescent population, suggesting the need for routine assessment and treatment of PTSD in this population. PMID:23696412
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marianna Virtanen
Full Text Available In response to the economic consequences of ageing of the population, governments are seeking ways with which people might work into older age. We examined the association of working conditions and health with extended employment (defined as >6 months beyond the pensionable age in a cohort of older, non-disabled employees who have reached old-age retirement.A total of 4,677 Finnish employees who reached their old-age pensionable date between 2005 and 2011 (mean age 59.8 years in 2005, 73% women had their survey responses before pensionable age linked to national health and pension registers, resulting in a prospective cohort study.In all, 832 participants (17.8% extended their employment by more than 6 months beyond the pensionable date. After multivariable adjustment, the following factors were associated with extended employment: absence of diagnosed mental disorder (OR 1.25, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.54 and psychological distress (OR 1.68; 1.35-2.08 and of the work characteristics, high work time control (OR 2.31; 1.88-2.84. The projected probability of extended employment was 21.3% (19.5-23.1 among those free of psychiatric morbidity and with high work time control, while the corresponding probability was only 9.2% (7.4-11.4 among those with both psychiatric morbidity and poor work time control. The contribution of chronic somatic diseases was modest.In the present study, good mental health in combination with the opportunity to control work time seem to be key factors in extended employment into older age. In addition, high work time control might promote work life participation irrespective of employees' somatic disease status.
Age-Associated Skin Conditions and Diseases: Current Perspectives and Future Options.
Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan; Sterry, Wolfram; Hodin, Michael W; Griffiths, Tamara W; Watson, Rachel E B; Hay, Roderick J; Griffiths, Christopher E M
2016-04-01
The International League of Dermatological Societies (ILDS), a global, not-for-profit organization representing 157 dermatological societies worldwide, has identified the consequences of skin aging as one of the most important grand challenges in global skin health. Reduced functional capacity and increased susceptibility of the skin with development of dermatoses such as dry skin, itching, ulcers, dyspigmentation, wrinkles, fungal infections, as well as benign and malignant tumors are the most common skin conditions in aged populations worldwide. Environmental (e.g., pollution) and lifestyle factors (e.g., smoking, sunbed use) negatively affect skin health. In turn altered appearance, dry skin, chronic wounds, and other conditions decrease general health and reduce the likelihood for healthy and active aging. Preventive skin care includes primary, secondary, and tertiary interventions. Continuous sun protection from early childhood onward is most important, to avoid extrinsic skin damage and skin cancer. Exposure to irritants, allergens, or other molecules damaging the skin must be avoided or reduced to a minimum. Public health approaches are needed to implement preventive and basic skin care worldwide to reach high numbers of dermatological patients and care receivers. Education of primary caregivers and implementation of community dermatology are successful strategies in resource-poor countries. Besides specialist physicians, nurses and other health care professionals play important roles in preventing and managing age-related skin conditions in developing as well as in developed countries. Healthy skin across the life course leads to better mental and emotional health, positive impact on social engagement, and healthier, more active, and productive lives. PMID:26994263
Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Seitz, Frank; Haigis, Ann-Cathrin; Höger, Johanna; Zubrod, Jochen P; Schulz, Ralf; Bundschuh, Mirco
2016-07-01
Titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2 -NPs) adsorb co-occurring heavy metals in surface waters, modulating their toxicity for freshwater invertebrates. The processes triggering this interaction may be influenced by several environmental parameters; however, their relative importance remains unclear. The present study assessed the implications of aging on the joint acute toxicity of copper (Cu) and TiO2 -NPs for Daphnia magna over a duration of up to 72 h. The influences of aging duration as well as ionic strength, pH, and presence of different qualities of organic matter during aging were assessed. The results indicated that the presence of TiO2 -NPs often reduced the Cu-induced toxicity for daphnids after aging (albeit with varying extent), which was displayed by up to 3-fold higher EC50 (50% effective concentration) values compared to the absence of TiO2 -NPs. Moreover, the Cu speciation, influenced by the ionic composition and the pH as well as the presence of organic additives in the medium, strongly modulated the processes during aging, with partly limited implications of the aging duration on the ecotoxicological response of D. magna. Nonetheless, the present study underpins the potential of TiO2 -NPs to modify toxicity induced by heavy metals in freshwater ecosystems under various environmental conditions. This pattern, however, needs further verification using heavy metal ions with differing properties in combination with further environmental factors, such as ultraviolet irradiation. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1766-1774. © 2015 SETAC. PMID:26640248
Stochastic Programming with Probability
Andrieu, Laetitia; Vázquez-Abad, Felisa
2007-01-01
In this work we study optimization problems subject to a failure constraint. This constraint is expressed in terms of a condition that causes failure, representing a physical or technical breakdown. We formulate the problem in terms of a probability constraint, where the level of "confidence" is a modelling parameter and has the interpretation that the probability of failure should not exceed that level. Application of the stochastic Arrow-Hurwicz algorithm poses two difficulties: one is structural and arises from the lack of convexity of the probability constraint, and the other is the estimation of the gradient of the probability constraint. We develop two gradient estimators with decreasing bias via a convolution method and a finite difference technique, respectively, and we provide a full analysis of convergence of the algorithms. Convergence results are used to tune the parameters of the numerical algorithms in order to achieve best convergence rates, and numerical results are included via an example of ...
Cavaco, A; Ramalho, A; Pais, S; Durães, L
2015-03-01
Prosthesis interface is one of the most important components to promote individual׳s health and comfort, as it establishes direct contact with the skin and transfers loads generated during gait. The aim of this study was to mechanically characterize, three commercial interfaces (block copolymer, silicone gel and silicone elestomer), under static and dynamic conditions, before and after undergoing a process of chemical aging in synthetic sweat for periods up to 90 days. Static mechanical compression tests were performed on the materials, as well as fatigue tests to assess their static and dynamic mechanical behaviors, respectively. For the second, a sinusoidal load was applied with an appropriate range of deformation for each material. Several analytical techniques were also used to characterize the materials, namely Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and morphology characterization by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). All the tested materials have strong viscoelastic behavior, showing a linear response for small deformations, followed by a nonlinear behavior for higher deformation. The block copolymer and the silicone gel are affected by aging in synthetic sweat in a similar way, with a significant increase of their rigidity after 30 days, followed by a progressive reduction. The silicone elastomer displays a continuous increase of rigidity along the 90 days of storage, being the most sensitive to aging affects. It also exhibits the lowest stiffness value, being suitable for uses that require maximum comfort. All materials demonstrate chemical and structural stability under service simulated conditions. PMID:25554916
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xie, YuLong; Berkowitz, Carl M.
2006-06-01
As part of a study to identify groups of compounds (‘source categories’) associated with different processing facilities, a multivariate receptor model called Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) was applied to hourly average concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured at five Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) located near the Ship Channel in Houston, Texas. The observations were made between June and October, 2003, and limited to nighttime measurements (21:00 pm – 6:00 am) in order to remove the complexity of photochemical processing and associated changes in the concentrations of primary and secondary VOCs. Six to eight volatile organic compounds source categories were identified for the five Ship Channel sites. The dominant source categories were found to be those associated with petrochemical, chemical industries and fuel evaporation. In contrast, source categories associated with on-road vehicles were found to be relatively insignificant. Although evidence of biogenic emissions was found at almost all the sites, this broad category was significant only at the Wallisville site, which was also the site furthest away from the Ship Channels area and closest to the northeast forest of Texas. Natural gas, accumulation and fuel evaporation sources were found to contribute most to the ambient VOCs, followed by the petrochemical emission of highly reactive ethene and propylene. Solvent / paint industry and fuel evaporation and emission from refineries were next in importance while the on-road vehicle exhaust generally contributed less than 10% of the total ambient VOCs. Specific geographic areas associated with each source category were identified through the use of a Conditional Probability Function (CPF) analysis that related elevated concentrations of key VOCs in each category to a network of grids superimposed on the source inventories of the VOCs.
The Logic of Parametric Probability
Norman, Joseph W
2012-01-01
The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the probabilities of logical propositions. An alternative direct probability encoding scheme is presented, which allows statements of implication and quantification to be modeled directly as constraints on conditional probabilities. Several example problems are solved, from Johnson-Laird's aces to Smullyan's zombies. Many apparently challenging problems in logic turn out to be simple problems in algebra and computer science; often just systems of polynomial equations or linear optimization problems. This work extends the mathematical logic and parametric probability methods invented by George Boole.
Compared Ageing of Oil from Curcubitea Pepo in Two Different Storage Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.H.W. Nakavoua
2011-04-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the oil pumkin seeds of Curcubitea pepo from Congo- Brazzaville. The ageing of oil extracted from the seeds of the pumpkin Curcubitea pepo stored at two temperatures (6 and 30ºC was monitored during storage for 11 months by comparison of physical and chemical characteristics correlated with spectroscopic data. Medium infrared spectroscopy confirmed saponification index data. Ultraviolet absorption confirmed peroxide index data. Antioxidant behaviour was monitored by fluorescence and the effect of ageing on the two major fatty acid families was analysed by a study of chemical composition correlated with differential scanning calorimetry measurements. This study showed an overall lengthening of the fatty acid carbon chains and allowed preferential storage conditions to be specified for this oil.
Conditions of life and climacteric in middle aged women in a health area of Sancti Spiritus.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvia Esther de la Torre Cárdenas
2012-09-01
Full Text Available A climacteric is one of the difficult steps in women life in which a particular attention is needed by the doctor and a big comprehension from the social point of view. A retrospective descriptive study was made in the South Area Polyclinic of Sancti Spiritus Municipality, period january – april 2007, with a female population having between 45 -59 years of age from 8 family medical clinics, 4 belonging to the urban area and 4 to the rural one (191 in total, including all which referred to present any disorder with the menstrual cycle due to excess or defect in the 6 months previous to interview (165 in total with the objective to evaluate the relation between conditions of life and the frequency; criticality and morbidity associated with menopause syndrome. Life conditions, kind of work, kind of activity carried out and associated pathologies are the factors that according to the study influence in frequency, criticality and morbidity associated with menopause syndrome in middle aged women and the overhead given by the conditioning of gender, favored the appearance of symptoms such as hot, depression, anxiety, tachycardia and vaginal dryness.
Influence of age on postural sway during different dual-task conditions.
Bergamin, Marco; Gobbo, Stefano; Zanotto, Tobia; Sieverdes, John C; Alberton, Cristine L; Zaccaria, Marco; Ermolao, Andrea
2014-01-01
Dual-task performance assessments of competing parallel tasks and postural outcomes are growing in importance for geriatricians, as it is associated with predicting fall risk in older adults. This study aims to evaluate the postural stability during different dual-task conditions including visual (SMBT), verbal (CBAT) and cognitive (MAT) tasks in comparison with the standard Romberg's open eyes position (OE). Furthermore, these conditions were investigated in a sample of young adults and a group of older healthy subjects to examine a potential interaction between type of secondary task and age status. To compare these groups across the four conditions, a within-between mixed model ANOVA was applied. Thus, a stabilometric platform has been used to measure center of pressure velocity (CoPV), sway area (SA), antero-posterior (AP) and medio-lateral (ML) oscillations as extents of postural sway. Tests of within-subjects effects indicated that different four conditions influenced the static balance for CoPV (p < 0.001), SA (p < 0.001). Post-hoc analyses indicated that CBAT task induced the worst balance condition on CoPV and resulted in significantly worse scores than OE (-11.4%; p < 0.05), SMBT (-17.8%; p < 0.01) and MAT (-17.8%; p < 0.01) conditions; the largest SA was found in OE, and it was statistically larger than SMBT (-27.0%; p < 0.01) and MAT (-23.1%; p < 0.01). The between-subjects analysis indicated a general lower balance control in the group of elderly subjects (CoPV p < 0.001, SA p < 0.002), while, the mixed model ANOVA did not detect any interaction effect between types of secondary task and groups in any parameters (CoPV p = 0.154, SA p = 0.125). Postural sway during dual-task assessments was also found to decrease with advancing age, however, no interactions between aging and types of secondary tasks were found. Overall, these results indicated that the secondary task which most influenced the length of sway path, as measured by postural stability was a
Influence of age on postural sway during different dual-task conditions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco Bergamin
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Dual-task performance assessments of competing parallel tasks and postural outcomes are growing in importance for geriatricians, as it is associated with predicting fall risk in older adults. This study aims to evaluate the postural stability during different dual-task conditions including visual (SMBT, verbal (CBAT and cognitive (MAT tasks in comparison with the standard Romberg’s open eyes position (OE. Furthermore, these conditions were investigated in a sample of young adults and a group of older healthy subjects to examine a potential interaction between type of secondary task and age status. To compare these groups across the four conditions, a within-between mixed model ANOVA was applied. Thus, a stabilometric platform has been used to measure center of pressure velocity (CoPV, sway area (SA, antero-posterior (AP and medio-lateral (ML oscillations as extents of postural sway. Tests of within-subjects effects indicated that different four conditions influenced the static balance for CoPV (p<0.001, SA (p<0.001. Post-hoc analyses indicated that CBAT task induced the worst balance condition on CoPV and resulted in significantly worse scores than OE (-11.4%; p<0.05, SMBT (-17.8% p<0.01 and MAT (-17.8% p<0.01 conditions; the largest SA was found in OE, and it was statistically larger than SMBT (-27.0%, p<0.01 and MAT (-23.1%; p<0.01. The between-subjects analysis indicated a general lower balance control in the group of elderly subjects (CoPV p<0.001, SA p<0.002, while, the mixed model ANOVA did not detect any interaction effect between types of secondary task and groups in any parameters (CoPV p=0.154, SA p=0.125. Postural sway during dual-task assessments was also found to decrease with advancing age, however, no interactions between aging and types of secondary tasks were found. Overall, these results indicated that the secondary task which most influenced the length of sway path, as measured by postural stability was a simple verbal
RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
吕恩琳; 钟佑明
2003-01-01
Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.
Gingival Condition in Children Aged From 6 to 12 Years Old: Clinical and Microbiological Aspects
Ane Stella Salgado XAVIER; Maristela Honório CAYETANO; Elerson Gaetti JARDIM JR; Sosígenes Victor BENFATTI; João BAUSELLS
2007-01-01
Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the gingival condition and the occurrence of periodontopathogens in 93 children aged from 6 to 12 years old in Araçatuba, Brazil. Method: Clinical examination was performed in accordance to Schour and Massler (1947) while the subgingival plaque samples were obtained though sterilized paper point that were placed into health and inflamed gingival crevice of tooth 54 or 14, 61 or 11, 26, 75 or 35, 82 or 42 and 46, where they were kept for 60 seco...
Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging
Pöschke, Patrick; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A; Zaks, Michael A
2016-01-01
We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples for subdiffusive tracer's motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer's motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We have performed extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions, and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e. at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell, and is absent in classical models based on continuous time random walks (CTRW) with no dynamics in the trapped state.
Adsorption of molybdate by synthetic hematite under alkaline conditions: Effects of aging
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hematite is a common primary/secondary mineral in mine drainage and mine waste settings that can adsorb dissolved metals and metalloids. This study explored the ability of synthetic hematite to retain one such contaminant, molybdate, on its surfaces under highly alkaline (pH = ∼10) conditions. X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman spectroscopy (RS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and specific surface area (BET) analyses show that synthetic hematite particles are stable and able to adsorb molybdate. Raman spectra show that the hematite efficiently adsorbs molybdate and retains it on its surfaces via strong inner-sphere surface complexation. Inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) data indicate that hematite aged (7 and 9 days) at high and room temperatures (75 and 25 °C) retains adsorbed molybdate and that molybdate sorption increases with aging. SEM images show that aged hematite particles with adsorbed molybdate are similar in size and shape to pure hematite and exhibit no significant reduction in surface area. These findings are valuable for understanding the fate of Mo in mine wastes and mill tailings environments where the 2-line ferrihydrite to which it is adsorbed can transform to hematite.
Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging.
Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, Youngjin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae
2015-09-01
In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited by all 3 extracts at 100 µg/mL in 60 min, partial inhibition (50-70%) was achieved only by WRPE-EtOH and WRPE-enzyme at 50 µg/mL. High concentrations (≥250 µg/mL) of all 3 extracts markedly inhibited the elastase activity. However, at low concentrations (15.6-125 µg/mL), only WRPE-EtOH inhibited the enzyme activity. Notably, WRPE-EtOH was superior to WRPE-enzyme and WRPE-HTHP in the inhibition of tyrosinase. WRPE-EtOH significantly inhibited the enzyme activity from 31.2 µM, reaching 80% inhibition at 125 µM. In addition to its strong antioxidative activity, the ethanol extract of white rose petals was confirmed to be effective in inhibiting skin aging-related enzymes. Therefore, it is suggested that WRPE-EtOH could be a good candidate for the improvement of skin aging such as wrinkle formation and pigmentation. PMID:26472968
Diet and weaning age affect the growth and condition of Dover sole (Solea solea L.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2005-01-01
Full Text Available The effect of diet type (frozen Artemia biomass and two inert diets: micro-bound [MB] and micro-extruded [ME] and two weaning ages (early weaning and late weaning, 50 and 64 days after hatching, respectively were studied in Solea solea larvae. The experiment lasted 56 and 42 days for early and late weaning, respectively. The mortality results showed the highest values for late weaning (39% in the Artemia treatment. No significant differences in mortality were observed between the inert diets. The final dry weight values were higher for late weaning than for early weaning. At both weaning ages, fish receiving the same treatments had similar tendencies for dry weight and standard length. Fish fed with MB presented significantly higher dry weight and standard length, followed by ME, while the lowest values at both weaning ages were recorded for the Artemia treatment. Similar amounts of highly unsaturated fatty acid fractions among the inert diets were reflected by the absence of significant differences in the susceptibility to oxidation (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances testing; however, significant differences were found in carbohydrate, protein and lipid contents of whole-body homogenates for both early and late weaning. At the end of the experiment no significant differences in biochemical contents were observed between the two inert diets. The results of this study suggest that weaning starting on day 50 (early weaning, using a good quality inert diet, leads to higher survival, growth and fish condition.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elias Georges Gebara
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the dentate gyrus was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.
Ferguson, Sarah Hargus
2005-09-01
It is well known that, for listeners with normal hearing, speech produced by non-native speakers of the listener's first language is less intelligible than speech produced by native speakers. Intelligibility is well correlated with listener's ratings of talker comprehensibility and accentedness, which have been shown to be related to several talker factors, including age of second language acquisition and level of similarity between the talker's native and second language phoneme inventories. Relatively few studies have focused on factors extrinsic to the talker. The current project explored the effects of listener and environmental factors on the intelligibility of foreign-accented speech. Specifically, monosyllabic English words previously recorded from two talkers, one a native speaker of American English and the other a native speaker of Spanish, were presented to three groups of listeners (young listeners with normal hearing, elderly listeners with normal hearing, and elderly listeners with hearing impairment; n=20 each) in three different listening conditions (undistorted words in quiet, undistorted words in 12-talker babble, and filtered words in quiet). Data analysis will focus on interactions between talker accent, listener age, listener hearing status, and listening condition. [Project supported by American Speech-Language-Hearing Association AARC Award.
Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring: the LIne Resonance Analysis method (LIRA)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report describes a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, which is based on Frequency Domain Reflectometry. This method resulted in the development of a system called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. LIRA is composed of a signal generator, a signal analyser and a simulator that can be used to simulate several failure/degradation scenarios and assess the accuracy and sensitivity of the LIRA system. This report describes in details the methodology, the results of field experiments and the proposed work for the next three year period. (Author)
Nutritional condition of school age children. Clinic, anthropo-medical and alimentary assessment
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Alina Esther González Hermida
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Background: the study of children´s growth in an appropriate indicator of children health condition and should be used as one of the basis in the practice of preventive medicine. Objective: to determine the nutritional al condition of children of third and sixth grade of elementary schools of Health Area V of Cienfuegos Municipality. Methods: descriptive, observational, cross-sectional and relational study of 445 school age children from 4 elementary schools. A clinic assessment was carried out along with an anthropo-medical evaluation. A qualitative survey was developed to assess the frequency of consumption of different alimentary groups. Results: the relation weight/height in the two genders presents a prevalence of normal weight; undernourishment is more common among females, overweight is more usual among boys and obesity can be found in both genders. The variable weight/age showed one bad-nutrition (for defect among females, there was a prevalence of bad-nutrition for excess in both genders. There were no children with height under the third percentile, with prevalence of boys and girls tall and very tall. Bronchial asthma was the most common disease. Conclusions: Food consumption in general, taking into account frequency and kind of food, is not the appropriate. There is a relation between positive clinical findings and the anthropometric assessment of weight/height.
26 CFR 1.410(a)-4 - Maximum age conditions and time of participation.
2010-04-01
... more than 5 years before normal retirement age (within the meaning of section 411(a)(8) and § 1.411(a... at such time the employee is less than age 60. The normal retirement age under the plan is age 65...). Example 2. A defined benefit plan provides a normal retirement age of the later of age 65 or completion...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duckworth, Robert C [ORNL; Aytug, Tolga [ORNL; Paranthaman, Mariappan Parans [ORNL; Kidder, Michelle [ORNL; Polyzos, Georgios [ORNL; Leonard, Keith J [ORNL
2015-01-01
Cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) nanocomposites have been developed in an effort to improve cable insulation lifetime to serve in both instrument cables and auxiliary power systems in advanced reactor applications as well as to provide an alternative for new or retro-fit cable insulation installations. Nano-dielectrics composed of different weight percentages of MgO & SiO_{2} have been subjected to radiation at accumulated doses approaching 20 MRad and thermal aging temperatures exceeding 100 C. Depending on the composition, the performance of the nanodielectric insulation was influenced, both positively and negatively, when quantified with respect to its electrical and mechanical properties. For virgin unradiated or thermally aged samples, XLPE nanocomposites with 1wt.% SiO_{2} showed improvement in breakdown strength and reduction in its dissipation factor when compared to pure undoped XLPE, while XLPE 3wt.% SiO_{2} resulted in lower breakdown strength. When aged in air at 120 C, retention of electrical breakdown strength and dissipation factor was observed for XLPE 3wt.% MgO nanocomposites. Irrespective of the nanoparticle species, XLPE nanocomposites that were gamma irradiated up to the accumulated dose of 18 MRad showed a significant drop in breakdown strength especially for particle concentrations greater than 3 wt.%. Additional attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy measurements suggest changes in the structure of the XLPE SiO_{2} nanocomposites associated with the interaction of silicon and oxygen. Discussion on the relevance of property changes with respect to cable aging and condition monitoring is presented.
Characteristics of Adults with Down Syndrome: prevalence of age-related conditions
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Angelo eCarfì
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Introduction. In the last decades, life expectancy of persons with Down syndrome (DS has dramatically increased and it is estimated that they will be living as long as the general population within a generation. Despite being included among the progeroid syndromes, because of the presence of features typically observed in older adults, DS is still regarded as a disease of pediatric interest. Because limited knowledge is available on the clinical characteristics of adults with DS, this study aimed to assess clinical and non-clinical features of this population and to describe similarities to the geriatric population. Methods. In this study, we described 60 adults with DS evaluated at the Day Hospital of the Geriatric Department of the Policlinico A. Gemelli, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Rome. Individuals were assessed through a standardized protocol. Results. The mean age of study participants was 38 years (range, 18 to 58 years and 42 (70.0% were women. Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent: severe cognitive impairment was diagnosed in 39 (65.0% participants, behavioral symptoms were present in 25 (41.7% and functional impairment in 23 (38.3%. Six (10.0% participants lived in institutions and 11 (18.3% were diagnosed as obese. The mean number of drugs used was 2.4; use of psychotropic drugs was highly prevalent. The most common chronic diseases were thyroid problems (44, 73.3%, followed by mood disorders (19, 31.7%, osteoporosis (18, 30.0% and cardiac problems (10, 16.7%. Geriatric conditions and chronic diseases were more prevalent among participants aged ≥40 years. Conclusions. Several similarities between older adults and adults with DS were observed. Comorbidities, geriatric conditions, cognitive and functional deficits and social problems are highly prevalent in both populations, contributing to the high complexity of these patients’ assessment and treatment.
Oldenburg, E.W.; Guy, C.S.; Cureton, E.S.; Webb, M.A.H.; Gardner, W.M.
2011-01-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of acclimation to flow and site-specific physicochemical water conditions on poststocking dispersal and physiological condition of age-1 hatchery-reared pallid sturgeon. Fish from three acclimation treatments were radio-tagged, released at two locations (Missouri River and Marias River), and monitored using passive telemetry stations. Marias treatment was acclimated to flow and site-specific physicochemical conditions, Bozeman treatment was acclimated to flow only, and controls had no acclimation (reared under traditional conservation propagation protocol). During both years, fish released in the Missouri River dispersed less than fish released in the Marias River. In 2005, Marias treatment dispersed less and nearly twice as many fish remained in the Missouri River reach as compared to control fish. In 2006, pallid sturgeon dispersed similarly among treatments and the number of fish remaining in the Missouri River reach was similar among all treatments. Differences in poststocking dispersal between years were related to fin curl which was present in all fish in 2005 and only 26% in 2006. Pallid sturgeon from all treatments in both years had a greater affinity for the lower reaches of the Missouri River than the upper reaches. Thus, release site influenced poststocking dispersal more than acclimation treatment. No difference was observed in relative growth rate among treatments. However, acclimation to flow (i.e., exercise conditioning) prevented fat accumulation from rupturing hepatocytes. Acclimation conditions used in this study did not benefit pallid sturgeon unless physiological maladies were present. Overriding all treatment effects was stocking location; thus, natural resource agencies need to consider stocking location carefully to reduce poststocking dispersal. ?? 2011 Blackwell Verlag, Berlin.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohamed YOUNES
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Although cardiac recovery is an important criterion for ranking horses in endurance competitions, heart rate variability (HRV has hardly ever been studied in the context of this equestrian discipline. In the present study, we sought to determine whether HRV is affected by parameters such as age, exercise duration and test site. Accordingly, HRV might be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac recovery. The main objective of the present study was to determine the effects of age, exercise duration and test site on HRV variables at rest and during exercise and recovery in young Arabian endurance horses. Over a three-year period, 77 young Arabian horses aged 4 to 6 years performed one or more exercise tests (consisting of a warm-up, cantering at 22 km.h-1and a final 500 m gallop at full speed at four different sites. Beat-to-beat RR intervals were continuously recorded and then analyzed (using a time-frequency approach to determine the instantaneous HRV components before, during and after the test. At rest, the root-mean-square of successive differences in RR intervals (RMSSD was higher in the 4-year-olds (54.4±14.5 ms than in the 5-or 6-year-olds (44.9±15.5 and 49.1± 11.7 ms, respectively. During the first 15 minutes of exercise (period T, the heart rate (HR and RMSSD decreased with age. In 6-year-olds, RMSSD decreased as the exercise duration increased (T: 3.0±1.4 vs. 2T: 3.6±2.2 vs. 3T: 2.8±1.0. During recovery, RMSSD was negatively correlated with the cardiac recovery time and the recovery heart rate (R= - 0.56 and -0.53 respectively; p<0.05. At rest and during exercise and recovery, RMSSD and several HRV variables differed significantly as a function of the test conditions. HRV in endurance horses appears to be strongly influenced by age and environmental factors (such as ambient temperature, ambient humidity and track quality. Nevertheless, RMSSD can be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac recovery.
Younes, Mohamed; Robert, Céline; Barrey, Eric; Cottin, François
2016-01-01
Although cardiac recovery is an important criterion for ranking horses in endurance competitions, heart rate variability (HRV) has hardly ever been studied in the context of this equestrian discipline. In the present study, we sought to determine whether HRV is affected by parameters such as age, exercise duration and test site. Accordingly, HRV might be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac recovery. The main objective of the present study was to determine the effects of age, exercise duration, and test site on HRV variables at rest and during exercise and recovery in young Arabian endurance horses. Over a 3-year period, 77 young Arabian horses aged 4-6 years performed one or more exercise tests (consisting of a warm-up, cantering at 22 km.h(-1)and a final 500 m gallop at full speed) at four different sites. Beat-to-beat RR intervals were continuously recorded and then analyzed (using a time-frequency approach) to determine the instantaneous HRV components before, during and after the test. At rest, the root-mean-square of successive differences in RR intervals (RMSSD) was higher in the 4-year-olds (54.4 ± 14.5 ms) than in the 5-or 6-year-olds (44.9 ± 15.5 and 49.1 ± 11.7 ms, respectively). During the first 15 min of exercise (period T), the heart rate (HR) and RMSSD decreased with age. In 6-year-olds, RMSSD decreased as the exercise duration increased (T: 3.0 ± 1.4 vs. 2T: 3.6 ± 2.2 vs. 3T: 2.8 ± 1.0). During recovery, RMSSD was negatively correlated with the cardiac recovery time (CRT) and the recovery heart rate (RHR; R = -0.56 and -0.53, respectively; p < 0.05). At rest and during exercise and recovery, RMSSD and several HRV variables differed significantly as a function of the test conditions. HRV in endurance horses appears to be strongly influenced by age and environmental factors (such as ambient temperature, ambient humidity, and track quality). Nevertheless, RMSSD can be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac
Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent
2016-04-01
In this paper, underground structures are shown to have a major influence on the groundwater mean age distribution described as a dispersive piston effect. Urban underground development does not occur without impacts on subsoil resources. In particular, groundwater resources can be vulnerable and generate disturbances when this space is exploited. Groundwater age spatial distribution data are fundamental for resource management as it can provide operational sustainability indicators. However, the application of groundwater age modeling is neglected regarding the potential effect of underground structures in urban areas. A three dimensional modeling approach was conducted to quantify the impact of two underground structures: (1) an impervious structure and (2) a draining structure. Both structures are shown to cause significant mixing processes occurring between shallow and deeper aquifers. The design technique used for draining structures is shown to have the greatest impact, generating a decrease in mean age of more than 80% under the structure. Groundwater age modeling is shown to be relevant for highlighting the role played by underground structures in advective-dispersive flows in urban areas.
Gingival Condition in Children Aged From 6 to 12 Years Old: Clinical and Microbiological Aspects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ane Stella Salgado XAVIER
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the gingival condition and the occurrence of periodontopathogens in 93 children aged from 6 to 12 years old in Araçatuba, Brazil. Method: Clinical examination was performed in accordance to Schour and Massler (1947 while the subgingival plaque samples were obtained though sterilized paper point that were placed into health and inflamed gingival crevice of tooth 54 or 14, 61 or 11, 26, 75 or 35, 82 or 42 and 46, where they were kept for 60 seconds and tranferred to tubes containing 5 ml of thioglicolate broth. Microorganisms were isolated on blood agar and CVE an agar after incubation under anaerobiosis, at 37ºC, for 10 days. The identification of the isolates was based on their morphological, cellular and biochemical features. Results: 91.40% shows gingivitis while 70.97% presented mild gingivitis. Only 8.6% didn’t presented gingivitis. It was verified that the most of children presented mild gengivitis and was had some periodontopathogens. Conclusion: The gingivitis deteriored with age and only F. nucleatum was related with the deterioration of gengival status.
Does the gestation age of newborn babies influence the ultrasonic assessment of hip condition?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simić Slavica
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction. Ultrasound represents a method of examination of hips of newborn babies capable of defining hip condition and distinguishing stable and unstable hips based on morphological elements. It is accepted in a large number of countries as a method of examination of high risk newborns, or as a method of systematic screening. Objective. The objective of this study was to investigate correlation between ultrasonically estimated hip maturity and respective gestation maturity both in premature and term-born babies, and to investigate the influence of different delivery types on hips condition. Methods. In our study 2045 patients, 1141 males and 904 females, were examined in at the Institute of Neonatology over a period of 5 years. The average age was 34.04 gestation weeks. There were significantly more premature (1698 or 83.03% than term-born babies (347 or 16.97%. Ultrasound hip examination, as a screening method, was carried out according to Graf. It was followed by clinical examination. Results were analyzed by appropriate statistical methods (χ2-test, one-way ANOVA, multifactor ANOVA. Results. The overall frequency of unstable hips was 3.2%, 1.88% in males and 4.87% in females (p<0.05. 96.8% babies had stable hips, out of which 35.21% were mature and 61.59% immature. In the study of the breech presentation, out of 183 babies, unstable hips were found in 1.58% of male cases, and in 10.23% of female cases. Conclusion. Clinical screening of developmental dysplasia of the hip is insufficient for early diagnosis and decision about the treatment of premature babies. The high frequency of unstable hip type IIc (risky and IId (decentralized in premature babies requires early diagnosis and therapy. Wide swaddling for prematures should be applied up to eight months of age. Gentle manipulation is necessary while nursing and conducting physiotherapy of a premature baby.
Interpretations of Negative Probabilities
Burgin, Mark
2010-01-01
In this paper, we give a frequency interpretation of negative probability, as well as of extended probability, demonstrating that to a great extent, these new types of probabilities, behave as conventional probabilities. Extended probability comprises both conventional probability and negative probability. The frequency interpretation of negative probabilities gives supportive evidence to the axiomatic system built in (Burgin, 2009; arXiv:0912.4767) for extended probability as it is demonstra...
Lukina, E. A.; Alekseev, A. A.; Antipov, V. V.; Zaitsev, D. V.; Klochkova, Yu. Yu.
2009-12-01
To describe the changes in the phase composition of alloys during aging, it is convenient to construct TTT diagrams on the temperature-aging time coordinates in which time-temperature regions of the existence of nonequilibrium phases that form during aging are indicated. As a rule, in constructing the diagrams of phase transformations during aging (DPTA), time-temperature maps of properties are plotted. A comparison of the diagrams with maps of properties allows one to analyze the effect of the structure on the properties. In this study, we analyze the DPTAs of V1469 (Al-1.2 Li-0.46 Ag-3.4 Cu-0.66 Mg) and 1441 (Al-1.8 Li-1.1 Mg-1.6 Cu, C Mg/ C Cu ≈ 1) alloys. Examples of the application of DPTA for the development of steplike aging conditions are reported.
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Aging of magnesium stearate under high doses gamma irradiation and oxidative conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lebeau, D.; Beuvier, L.; Cornaton, M. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SECR, LRMO, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Miserque, F. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SCCME, LECA, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Tabarant, M. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SEARS, LISL, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Esnouf, S. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SECR, LRMO, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Ferry, M., E-mail: muriel.ferry@cea.fr [CEA, DEN, DPC, SECR, LRMO, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
2015-05-15
Highlights: • Magnesium stearate was radio-oxidized at very high doses using gamma-rays. • H{sub 2} emission was estimated as a function of the integrated dose. • Modifications in the organic solid were followed as a function of the integrated dose. • A non-exhaustive degradation mechanism of magnesium stearate was proposed. - Abstract: In nuclear waste packages conditioning processes, magnesium stearate is widely used because of its high lubricating properties. For safety purposes, the radiolytic degradation of these organic materials has to be better understood to be able to predict their aging in repository conditions. This study reports the radiolytic degradation of magnesium stearate, using gamma-rays at room temperature and under air. Modifications were followed using different analytical tools (XPS, ATR-FTIR, ICP-AES, ATG and mass spectrometry). It has been observed that molecules mainly formed up to 1000 kGy of gamma irradiation dose under radio-oxidation are alkanes, hydroperoxides, double bonds in the aliphatic chain, carboxylates with aliphatic chain shorter than the one of stearate and ketones. At a dose of 4000 kGy, dicarboxylic acids are observed: the formation of these molecules needs a dose of at least 1000 kGy to be created under radio-oxidation. These observations allow us to propose a non-exhaustive degradation mechanism of magnesium stearate under gamma-irradiation at room temperature and under air.
Aging of magnesium stearate under high doses gamma irradiation and oxidative conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Highlights: • Magnesium stearate was radio-oxidized at very high doses using gamma-rays. • H2 emission was estimated as a function of the integrated dose. • Modifications in the organic solid were followed as a function of the integrated dose. • A non-exhaustive degradation mechanism of magnesium stearate was proposed. - Abstract: In nuclear waste packages conditioning processes, magnesium stearate is widely used because of its high lubricating properties. For safety purposes, the radiolytic degradation of these organic materials has to be better understood to be able to predict their aging in repository conditions. This study reports the radiolytic degradation of magnesium stearate, using gamma-rays at room temperature and under air. Modifications were followed using different analytical tools (XPS, ATR-FTIR, ICP-AES, ATG and mass spectrometry). It has been observed that molecules mainly formed up to 1000 kGy of gamma irradiation dose under radio-oxidation are alkanes, hydroperoxides, double bonds in the aliphatic chain, carboxylates with aliphatic chain shorter than the one of stearate and ketones. At a dose of 4000 kGy, dicarboxylic acids are observed: the formation of these molecules needs a dose of at least 1000 kGy to be created under radio-oxidation. These observations allow us to propose a non-exhaustive degradation mechanism of magnesium stearate under gamma-irradiation at room temperature and under air
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph Jennifer
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Low and middle income countries are ageing at a much faster rate than richer countries, especially in Asia. This is happening at a time of globalisation, migration, urbanisation, and smaller families. Older people make significant contributions to their families and communities, but this is often undermined by chronic disease and preventable disability. Social participation can help to protect against morbidity and mortality. We argue that social participation deserves much greater attention as a protective factor, and that older people can play a useful role in the prevention and management of chronic conditions. We present, as an example, a low-cost, sustainable strategy that has increased social participation among elders in Sri Lanka. Discussion Current international policy initiatives to address the increasing prevalence of non-communicable chronic diseases are focused on cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease and cancers, responsible for much premature mortality. Interventions to modify their shared risk factors of high salt and fat diets, inactivity, smoking and alcohol use are advocated. But older people also suffer chronic conditions that primarily affect quality of life, and have a wider range of risk factors. There is strong epidemiological and physiological evidence that social isolation, in particular, is as important a risk factor for chronic diseases as the 'lifestyle' risk factors, yet it is currently neglected. There are useful experiences of inexpensive and sustainable strategies to improve social participation among older people in low and lower middle income countries. Our experience with forming Elders' Clubs with retired tea estate workers in Sri Lanka suggests many benefits, including social support and participation, inter-generational contact, a collective voice, and facilitated access to health promotion activities, and to health care and social welfare services. Summary Policies to
Age-Ratios and Condition of En Route Migrant Blackpoll Warblers in the British Virgin Islands
Boal, Clint W.
2014-01-01
The en route migration ecology of Blackpoll Warblers (Setophaga striata) is poorly understood, yet intriguing. Blackpoll Warblers undertake the longest open water migration of any wood warbler species, traveling from northeastern North America to South America, with the first potential landfall being the West Indies. This migration requires substantial energy reserves and subjects Blackpoll Warblers to unpredictable weather events, which may influence survival. Few studies have examined age ratios or condition of Blackpoll Warblers while the warblers are en route through the Caribbean region. I captured and banded Blackpoll Warblers in the British Virgin Islands over 10 consecutive autumn migrations. Ratios of hatch-year to adult Blackpoll Warblers were variable but averaged lower than the ratios reported at continental departure locations. Average mass of Blackpoll Warblers was less than that reported at continental departure locations, with 26% of adults and 40% of hatch-year birds below the estimated fat free mass; hatch-year birds were consistently in poorer condition than adults. Blackpoll Warblers captured in the British Virgin Islands were also in poorer condition than those reported from the Dominican Republic and Barbados; this may be because of the British Virgin Islands being the first landfall after the transatlantic crossing, whereas Blackpoll Warblers arriving at the other Caribbean study locations may have had opportunities for stopover prior to arrival or have departed from farther south on the continent. However, this suggests that the British Virgin Islands likely provide important stopover habitat as a first landfall location for Blackpoll Warblers arriving from the transatlantic migration route.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schou, Erik; Meilby, Henrik
policies were thus robust, suggesting that a good policy would work well under different outcomes of climate change, i.e., acting under erroneous assumptions about change would not lead to major economic loss. For the chosen case stand, the net present value (NPV) of the transformation phase (first 100......Transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged forest management is currently taking place throughout Europe. Climate change is, however, expected to change growth conditions—possibly quite radically. Using a deterministic approach, it was the objective of this study to investigate the influence of....... Transition probabilities were updated continuously based on stand level variables and the transition matrix was thus dynamic. With optimal transformation policies, stand development followed similar pathways during the transformation phase irrespective of climate change scenario. Optimal transformation...
Infante, Arantza; Gago, Andrea; de Eguino, Garbiñe Ruiz; Calvo-Fernández, Teresa; Gómez-Vallejo, Vanessa; Llop, Jordi; Schlangen, Karin; Fullaondo, Ane; Aransay, Ana M; Martín, Abraham; Rodríguez, Clara I
2014-04-01
Aging, a time-dependent functional decline of biological processes, is the primary risk factor in developing diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular or degenerative diseases. There is a real need to understand the human aging process in order to increase the length of disease-free life, also known as "health span". Accumulation of progerin and prelamin A are the hallmark of a group of premature aging diseases but have also been found during normal cellular aging strongly suggesting similar mechanisms between healthy aging and LMNA-linked progeroid syndromes. How this toxic accumulation contributes to aging (physiological or pathological) remains unclear. Since affected tissues in age-associated disorders and in pathological aging are mainly of mesenchymal origin we propose a model of human aging based on mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) which accumulate prelamin A. We demonstrate that prelamin A-accumulating hMSCs have a premature aging phenotype which affects their functional competence in vivo. The combination of prelamin A accumulation and stress conditions enhance the aging phenotype by dysregulating the activity of the octamer binding protein Oct-1This experimental model has been fundamental to identify a new role for Oct-1 in hMSCs aging. PMID:24753226
Lin, Jin-Ding; Lin, Lan-Ping; Hsu, Shang-Wei; Chen, Wen-Xiu; Lin, Fu-Gong; Wu, Jia-Ling; Chu, Cordia
2014-11-13
This study aims to answer the research question of "Are early onset aging conditions correlated to daily activity functions in youth and adults with Down syndrome (DS)?" A cross-sectional survey was employed to recruit 216 individuals with DS over 15 years of age in the analyses. A structured questionnaire included demographic data, brief self-reported aging conditions, Dementia Screening Questionnaire for Individuals with Intellectual Disabilities (DSQIID) and activity of daily living (ADL) scales were completed by the primary caregivers who were well-suited for providing information on the functioning conditions of the DS individuals. Results showed that the most five frequent aging conditions (sometimes, usually and always) included frailty (20.2%), vision problem (15.8%), loss of language ability (15.3%), sleep problem (14.9%) and memory impairment (14.5%). Other onset aging conditions included more chronic diseases (13.9%), hearing loss (13%), chewing ability and tooth loss (12.5%), incontinence (11.1%), depressive syndrome (7.7%), falls and gait disorder (7.2%), loss of taste and smell (7.2%). The data also showed scores of DSQIID, onset aging conditions and ADL has significant relationships each other in Pearson's correlation tests. Finally, multiple linear regression analyses indicated onset aging conditions (β=-0.735, p<0.001) can significantly predicted the variation in ADL scores after adjusting other factors (R(2)=0.381). This study suggests that the authority should initiate early intervention programs aim to improve healthy aging and ADL functions for people with DS. PMID:25462513
Rebacz, Ewa
2009-01-01
The goal of this study is to determine the age at menarche of girls from Tanzania examined in 2005 considering their families’ social and material status. For the purpose of the analysis of the age at menarche, N=71 girls were qualified (N=8 from Dar es Salaam and N=63 from Mafinga) out of N=98 who took part in the anthropological study. The calendar age of the girls who qualified for the determination of the age at menarche ranged from 12.9 to 22.7 years of age (X=15.9 ± 1.9). The age at men...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pichugina N.N.
2011-06-01
Full Text Available The article presents a complex sanitary characteristic of working conditions of women involved in wallpaper production. The main favorable factors of industrial environment have been determined. It is shown that working conditions in wallpaper production factories cause an increase in indices of biological age
Dietary amino acid requirements are influenced by environmental conditions. Two experiments examined growth responses of Ross × Ross TP 16 male broilers fed diets varying in digestible (dig) Lys concentrations from 14 to 28 days of age under different environmental conditions. Experiment 1 was condu...
A graduate course in probability
Tucker, Howard G
2014-01-01
Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.
Nexø, Mette Andersen; Meng, Annette; Borg, Vilhelm
2016-07-01
According to the use it or lose it hypothesis, intellectually stimulating activities postpone age-related cognitive decline. A previous systematic review concluded that a high level of mental work demands and job control protected against cognitive decline. However, it did not distinguish between outcomes that were measured as cognitive function at one point in time or as cognitive decline. Our study aimed to systematically review which psychosocial working conditions were prospectively associated with high levels of cognitive function and/or changes in cognitive function over time. Articles were identified by a systematic literature search (MEDLINE, Web of Science (WOS), PsycNET, Occupational Safety and Health (OSH)). We included only studies with longitudinal designs examining the impact of psychosocial work conditions on outcomes defined as cognitive function or changes in cognitive function. Two independent reviewers compared title-abstract screenings, full-text screenings and quality assessment ratings. Eleven studies were included in the final synthesis and showed that high levels of mental work demands, occupational complexity or job control at one point in time were prospectively associated with higher levels of cognitive function in midlife or late life. However, the evidence to clarify whether these psychosocial factors also affected cognitive decline was insufficient, conflicting or weak. It remains speculative whether job control, job demands or occupational complexity can protect against cognitive decline. Future studies using methodological advancements can reveal whether workers gain more cognitive reserve in midlife and late life than the available evidence currently suggests. The public health implications of a previous review should thereby be redefined accordingly. PMID:27178844
Demand-specific work ability, poor health and working conditions in middle-aged full-time employees
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else;
2014-01-01
We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross-sectional question......We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross......-specific work ability). Reduced demand-specific work ability varied from 9% to 19% among the 46-year old and from 11% to 21% among the 56-year old. Age was associated with two, gender with four, and education with all measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. MSP was associated with four and MD was...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martyniuk O.V.
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Purpose: to assess students’ health condition by indicators of adaptation potential, biological age and express-assessment. Material: in the research 47 first and second year girl students participated, who belonged to main health group. Results: we distributed the girl students into three groups: 14.89% of them were included in group with “safe” health condition; 34.04% - in group of “third state”; 51.06% were related to group with “ dangerous” health condition. We established that dangerous level was characterized by energy potential of below middle and low level. It is accompanied by accelerated processes of organism’s age destructions and tension of regulation mechanisms. Conclusions: the received results permit to further develop and generalize the data of students’ health’s assessment by indicators of adaptation potentials, biological age and physical health’s condition.
Camerota, Marie; Bollen, Kenneth A.
2016-01-01
The “fetal origins” hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino ...
Teresa Gowin; Igor Góral
2015-01-01
Chlorophyll and pheophytin content was determined by means of Vernon method (Vernon, 1960) in needles of different age. Needles of Pinus strobus L., Pinus nigra Arnd., Pinus silvestris L., and Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco growing under conditions of chronic industrial pollution as well as under unpolluted conditions were examined. High pheophytin content was found in needles of trees growing under the conditions of chronic pollution. The youngest needles always showed the highest pheophytin c...
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper summarizes the results of aging, condition monitoring, and accident testing of various nuclear power plant cable products. Four sets of cables were aged under simultaneous thermal (≅95C) and radiation (≅0.10 kGy/hr) conditions. One set of cables was aged for 3 months, a second set was aged for 6 months, a third set was aged for 9 months, and a fourth set was not aged. A sequential accident consisting of high dose rate irradiation (≅6 kGy/hr) and high temperature steam was then performed on each set of cables. The results of the tests indicate that the feasibility of life extension of some popular cable products is promising. Mechanical measurements, primarily elongation, modulus, and density, were more effective than electrical measurements for monitoring age-related degradation. The broad objectives of this experimental program were twofold: (a) to determine the life extension potential of popular cable products used in nuclear power plants and (b) to determine the potential of condition monitoring for residual life assessment
Jung, Hee-Won; Jang, Il-Young; Lee, Young Soo; Lee, Chang Ki; Cho, Eun-Il; Kang, Woo Young; Chae, Jeoung Hee; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Dae Hyun
2016-03-01
Frailty has been previously studied in Western countries and the urban Korean population; however, the burden of frailty and geriatric conditions in the aging populations of rural Korean communities had not yet been determined. Thus, we established a population-based prospective study of adults aged ≥ 65 years residing in rural communities of Korea between October 2014 and December 2014. All participants underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment that encompassed the assessment of cognitive and physical function, depression, nutrition, and body composition using bioimpedance analysis. We determined the prevalence of frailty based on the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Korean version of FRAIL (K-FRAIL) criteria, as well as geriatric conditions. We recruited 382 adults (98% of eligible adults; mean age: 74 years; 56% women). Generally, sociodemographic characteristics were similar to those of the general rural Korean population. Common geriatric conditions included instrumental activity of daily living disability (39%), malnutrition risk (38%), cognitive dysfunction (33%), multimorbidity (32%), and sarcopenia (28%), while dismobility (8%), incontinence (8%), and polypharmacy (3%) were less common conditions. While more individuals were classified as frail according to the K-FRAIL criteria (27%) than the CHS criteria (17%), the CHS criteria were more strongly associated with prevalent geriatric conditions. Older Koreans living in rural communities have a significant burden of frailty and geriatric conditions that increase the risk of functional decline, poor quality of life, and mortality. The current study provides a basis to guide public health professionals and policy-makers in prioritizing certain areas of care and designing effective public health interventions to promote healthy aging of this vulnerable population. PMID:26952571
Park, Dong Choon; Yeo, Seung Geun
2013-09-01
Aging is initiated based on genetic and environmental factors that operate from the time of birth of organisms. Aging induces physiological phenomena such as reduction of cell counts, deterioration of tissue proteins, tissue atrophy, a decrease of the metabolic rate, reduction of body fluids, and calcium metabolism abnormalities, with final progression onto pathological aging. Despite the efforts from many researchers, the progression and the mechanisms of aging are not clearly understood yet. Therefore, the authors would like to introduce several theories which have gained attentions among the published theories up to date; genetic program theory, wear-and-tear theory, telomere theory, endocrine theory, DNA damage hypothesis, error catastrophe theory, the rate of living theory, mitochondrial theory, and free radical theory. Although there have been many studies that have tried to prevent aging and prolong life, here we introduce a couple of theories which have been proven more or less; food, exercise, and diet restriction. PMID:24653904
Contributions to quantum probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Subjective probability models for lifetimes
Spizzichino, Fabio
2001-01-01
Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be rethought and suitably redefined. Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes details those differences and clarifies aspects of subjective probability that have a direct influence on modeling and drawing inference from failure and survival data. In particular, within a framework of Bayesian theory, the author considers the effects of different levels of information in the analysis of the phenomena of positive and negative aging.The author coherently reviews and compares the various definitions and results concerning stochastic ordering, statistical dependence, reliability, and decision theory. He offers a detailed but accessible mathematical treatment of different aspects of probability distributions for exchangea...
MYSLÍKOVÁ, Michaela
2012-01-01
Bacherol Thesis is focused primaliry on fading of senior in dental hygiene and influence of dental condition on overall health in the age group. Unfortunately today isn´t the issue of seniors oral health and oral cavity insufficient attention. Insufficient oral care and bad informatik of seniors can lead to premature los sof natural teeth. Therefore awarenes is basic in preventing dental hygiene, as et seniors, so for other age groups. Theoretical part of Bacherol Thesis, ainclude information...
Loren Pickart; Jessica Michelle Vasquez-Soltero; Anna Margolina
2012-01-01
Oxidative stress, disrupted copper homeostasis, and neuroinflammation due to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines are considered leading causative factors in development of age-associated neurodegenerative conditions. Recently, a new mechanism of aging—detrimental epigenetic modifications—has emerged. Thus, compounds that possess antioxidant, anti-inflammatory activity as well as compounds capable of restoring copper balance and proper gene functioning may be able to prevent age-associ...
Effects of Accelerated Aging on Soybean Seed Germination Indexes at Laboratory Conditions
Zahra RASTEGAR; Mohammad SEDGHI; Saeid KHOMARI
2011-01-01
Reduction of seedling growth is a consequence of seed deterioration. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of duration of seed aging on soybean seed germination characteristics. Experiment conducted as completely randomized design with 4 replications. The seeds of �DPX� line of soybean with 15-16% moisture were incubated for 3, 7, 10, 14, 17 day at 40�C in sealed containers for ageing treatment and non aged seeds were considered as control. Results showed that rapid aging treatm...
Briggs, William M
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper summarizes the results of aging, condition monitoring, and accident testing of Class 1E cables used in nuclear power generating stations. Three sets of cables were aged for up to 9 months under simultaneous thermal (≅ 100 degrees C) and radiation (≅0.10 kGy/hr) conditions. After the aging, the cables were exposed to a simulated accident consisting of high dose rate irradiation (≅6 kGy/hr) followed by a high temperature steam exposure. A fourth set of cables, which were unaged, were also exposed to the accident conditions. The cables that were aged for 3 months and then accident tested were subsequently exposed to a high temperature steam fragility test (up to 400 degrees C), while the cables that were aged for 6 months and then accident tested were subsequently exposed to a 1000-hour submergence test in a chemical solution. The results of the tests indicate that the feasibility of life extension of many popular nuclear power plant cable products is promising and that mechanical measurements (primarily elongation, modulus, and density) were more effective than electrical measurements for monitoring age-related degradation. In the high temperature steam test, ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cable materials generally survived to higher temperatures than crosslinked polyolefin (XLPO) cable materials. In dielectric testing after the submergence testing, the XLPO materials performed better than the EPR materials. This paper presents some recent experimental data that are not yet available elsewhere and a summary of findings from the entire experimental program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper summarizes the results of aging, condition monitoring, and accident testing of Class 1E cables used in nuclear power generating stations. Three sets of cables were aged for up to 9 months under simultaneous thermal (≅ 100C) and radiation (≅ 0.10 kGy/hr) conditions. After the aging, the cables were exposed to a simulated accident consisting of high dose rate irradiation (≅ 6 kGy/hr) followed by a high temperature steam exposure. A fourth set of cables, which were unaged, were also exposed to the accident conditions. The cables that were aged for 3 months and then accident tested were subsequently exposed to a high temperature steam fragility test (up to 400C), while the cables that were aged for 6 months and then accident tested were subsequently exposed to a 1,000-hour submergence test in a chemical solution. The results of the tests indicate that the feasibility of life extension of many popular nuclear power plant cable products is promising and that mechanical measurements (primarily elongation, modulus, and density) were more effective than electrical measurements for monitoring age-related degradation. In the high temperature steam test, ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cable materials generally survived to higher temperatures than crosslinked polyolefin (XLPO) cable materials. In dielectric testing after the submergence testing, the XLPO materials performed better than the EPR materials. This paper presents some recent experimental data that are not yet available elsewhere and a summary of findings from the entire experimental program
Chiericato, GM; Rizzi, C; Boiti, C.; Canali, C.; Rostellato, V
1997-01-01
The trial was carried out on 44 hybrid male rabbits in order to study the plasma levels of testosterone (T), dihydrotestosterone (DHT), cortisol (C), triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) in relation to age (71 vs 85 days) and environmental temperature (20 vs 27°C). Age didnotaffect T, DHT, T + DHT. Only T/DHT resulted lower (P
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Eduardo May
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The corrosion properties of a 22.5 wt. (% Cr duplex stainless steel were investigated after long-term aging of 3000, 5000 and 7000 hours at 300 and 400 ºC. The corrosion resistance was measured based on mass loss in a FeCl3 10 wt. (% solution and electrochemical measurements in a 0.1 M H2SO4 solution. The results indicate that the corrosion resistance decreased steadily up to 5000 hours of aging. However, the samples subjected to 7000 hours of aging showed better corrosion resistance than those aged for 3000 and 5000 hours. This effect is attributed to the phase transformation that occurs during aging, a finding which was confirmed by hardness, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
2013-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. T. Rusev
2012-03-01
Full Text Available In 2005 highly pathogenic avian influenza spreaded rapidly from the Central Asia along the main migration routes of wild birds includingUkraine. In the autumn, and mostly in the winter, the avian influenza was found in many countries of Europe, Asia and Africa in the places of traditional birds wintering. The paper considers the ways of importation of the avian influenza pathogens intoUkraineand the role of wild birds in the possible formation of anthropogenic and natural foci of highly pathogenic avian influenza in megapolis conditions.
José Eduardo May; Carlos Alberto Caldas de Souza; Pedro Augusto de Paula Nascente; Paulo Soares; Carlos Mauricio Lepienski; Sebastião Elias Kuri
2010-01-01
The corrosion properties of a 22.5 wt. (%) Cr duplex stainless steel were investigated after long-term aging of 3000, 5000 and 7000 hours at 300 and 400 ºC. The corrosion resistance was measured based on mass loss in a FeCl3 10 wt. (%) solution and electrochemical measurements in a 0.1 M H2SO4 solution. The results indicate that the corrosion resistance decreased steadily up to 5000 hours of aging. However, the samples subjected to 7000 hours of aging showed better corrosion resistance than t...
Aging, condition monitoring, and loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) tests of class 1E electrical cables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This report describes the results of aging, condition monitoring, and accident testing of ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cables. Three sets of cables were aged for up to 9 months under simultaneous thermal (≅100 degrees C) and radiation (≅0.10 kGy/hr) conditions. A sequential accident consisting of high dose rate irradiation (≅6 kGy/hr) and high temperature steam followed the aging. Also exposed to the accident conditions was a fourth set of cables, which were unaged. The test results indicate that most properly installed EPR cables should be able to survive an accident after 60 years for total aging doses of at least 150--200 kGy and for moderate ambient temperatures on the order of 45--55 degrees C (potentially higher or lower, depending on material specific activation energies and total radiation doses). Mechanical measurements (primarily elongation, modulus, and density) were more effective than electrical measurements for monitoring age-related degradation
MATERNAL AGE EFFECT: THE ENIGMA OF DOWN SYNDROME AND OTHER TRISOMIC CONDITIONS
Aneuploidy is the most frequently observed chromosome abnormality in human liveborn, abortuses, and oocytes. he only etiological factor that has been established is advanced maternal age for the occurrence of trisomies, particularly trisomy 21 which causes Down syndrome. he mater...
Lifetime profit modelling of ageing systems utilising information about technical condition
Thorstensen, Tom Anders
2008-01-01
This dissertation focuses on a framework to support decision making in the management of ageing (oil and gas) facilities. Within the oil and gas sector on the Norwegian Continental Shelf the topic has become important as the installations are approaching the end of their intended lifetime. The objective of the thesis is to provide decision support for managing ageing systems and equipment with respect to the inspection, overhaul and replacement strategy in a life cycle perspective. The replac...
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
2014-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Noelia eHernández
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Several studies of marine top predators, above all of seabirds, have analysed the effects of either individual age or environmental fluctuations on reproduction; nevertheless, little is known about the age patterns in breeding performance in a variable environment. To investigate the simultaneous influence of age and environmental conditions on laying dates and egg volumes, we tested different climate and food availability indices in a transequatorial migratory seabird using female data from a 23-year study. Our results show an initial improvement in breeding parameters with age (i.e. earlier laying dates and greater egg volumes but no pattern of senescence in older age groups. The best models showed an interaction of time and age in breeding performance, i.e. the age pattern of breeding performance changed each year likely as a result of environmental variability. Nevertheless, climatic indexes used here explained part of that annual variability: NAO and SOI index accounted for 24% and 20% of deviances in laying dates and egg volume respectively. Part of that unexplained variability might be related to other processes such as intermittent breeding and the individual quality of breeders, which were not assessed in our study.
Perrig-Chiello, P; Sturzenegger, M
2001-02-01
The aim of this paper is to highlight the contextual and psychological preconditions of parent help and helpfulness in a sample of 260 middle-aged persons belonging to two age groups, 40-45 years and 50-55 years. In a first step we want to focus on the description of the contextual situation of the persons of this "hinge generation": What are their available social networks; what are their commitments towards children and parents in terms of perceived obligation and investment; how is their perceived balance of giving and receiving; how do they anticipate and experience dependency of their parents? In a second step we will highlight the readiness of middle-aged women and men to help their parents as well as the effectively reported help. Here we are interested in the psychological determinants of such attitude and behaviour. Structural equation models are performed to estimate the predictory power of personality variables, control beliefs and reported stress (family and job) on filial helpfulness and help. Results suggest that differential aspects such as gender and age group explain a large amount of variance of the variables intergenerational commitment and satisfaction with social networks and have--along with personality variables--a strong impact on filial help and helpfulness of middle-aged adults. PMID:11310223
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper describes the microstructural studies and the mechanical testing (hardness, tensile and charpy tests) performed on the Eurofer'97 steel in the as-received condition and after thermal ageing treatments up to 600 deg. C. In addition, fracture toughness tests on the as-received condition have been carried out in order to determine the Master Curve. During the thermal ageing treatments studied (500 deg. C/5000 h and 600 deg. C/1000 h) the general microstructure of the steel (tempered martensite with M23C6 and MX precipitates) remained stable. Only a slight growth of the particles has been observed. In terms of mechanical properties, the Eurofer'97 steel exhibited similar values of tensile properties (tensile and yield strength) and ductile-brittle transition temperature regardless of the material condition studied.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Teresa Gowin
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Chlorophyll and pheophytin content was determined by means of Vernon method (Vernon, 1960 in needles of different age. Needles of Pinus strobus L., Pinus nigra Arnd., Pinus silvestris L., and Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco growing under conditions of chronic industrial pollution as well as under unpolluted conditions were examined. High pheophytin content was found in needles of trees growing under the conditions of chronic pollution. The youngest needles always showed the highest pheophytin content' as related to Chlorophyll content. The examined species showed different degree of Chlorophyll decomposition under the influence of polluted environment. Trees growing under control environment showed small and similar amounts of pheophytin in needles of different age. Pheophytin content does not seem to be a convenient indicator to test the effect of pollution before visual symptoms occur, since the method is very labourious and plant material very variable.
Age at puberty on Nganda cattle under traditional and improved management conditions in Uganda
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Research into the reproductive efficiency of Nganda cattle was carried out in a study with two separate parts. The aim of the first part of the study was to determine whether delayed puberty was a serious problem in Nganda heifers. Sixty Nganda heifers and their crosses with the other local types were monitored for ovarian activity to establish their cyclicity. The results indicated that over 50% started cycling at about 2.5 years of age; nearly 90% of the heifers had started sexual activity by 3 years of age. To test whether the age at puberty could be reduced by supplementary feeding and control of internal and external parasites, 20 Nganda heifers 1.5 years old were selected in the second part of the study. The results proved that supplementary feeding, deworming and spraying against ectoparasites had a positive influence on the initiation of sexual activity in pubertal Nganda heifers. (author). 10 refs, 6 tabs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper evaluates the performance of asphalt membranes by examining the chemical and permeability changes experienced by the asphalt during aging tests. The aging process was accelerated by exposing the asphalt to elevated temperatures, high oxygen concentrations, and increased strengths of aqueous oxidizing agents. The synergistic effects of the variables are evaluated by using a fractional factorial experimental design. The installation costs for a catalytically airblown asphalt liner are roughly half that of the typical polymeric materials, and also less than the rubberized asphalt membrane. The results of the initial accelerated aging tests of the asphalt membranes indicate that this material will provide stable, long-term leachate isolation in a mill tailings environment
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2011-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and zero- and unit-probability events pose no particular epistemological problems. We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov's axiomatization o...
Probability and paternity testing.
Elston, R C
1986-01-01
A probability can be viewed as an estimate of a variable that is sometimes 1 and sometimes 0. To have validity, the probability must equal the expected value of that variable. To have utility, the average squared deviation of the probability from the value of that variable should be small. It is shown that probabilities of paternity calculated by the use of Bayes' theorem under appropriate assumptions are valid, but they can vary in utility. In particular, a recently proposed probability of p...
Logical Probability Preferences
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
We present a unified logical framework for representing and reasoning about both probability quantitative and qualitative preferences in probability answer set programming, called probability answer set optimization programs. The proposed framework is vital to allow defining probability quantitative preferences over the possible outcomes of qualitative preferences. We show the application of probability answer set optimization programs to a variant of the well-known nurse restoring problem, c...
Weible, Aldis P.; Oh, M. Matthew; Lee, Grace; Disterhoft, John F.
2004-01-01
Cholinergic systems are critical to the neural mechanisms mediating learning. Reduced nicotinic cholinergic receptor (nAChR) binding is a hallmark of normal aging. These reductions are markedly more severe in some dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease. Pharmacological central nervous system therapies are a means to ameliorate the cognitive…
Ozcan, Mutlu; Cura, Cenk; Brendeke, Johannes
2010-01-01
Purpose This study evaluated the effect of different aging methods on the repair bond strength and failure types of a microhybrid and a nanohybrid composite Materials and Methods Disk shaped microhybrid (Quadrant Anterior Shine-QA) and nanohybrid (Tetric EvoCeram TE) resin composite specimens (N = 1
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ha, Jeong Won [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735 (Korea, Republic of); Research and Development Center, KOS Limited, Yangsan 626-230 (Korea, Republic of); Seong, Baek Seok [Neutron Science Division, HANARO Center, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Hi Won [Advanced Metallic Materials Division, Korea Institute of Materials Science, Changwon 642-831 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Yoon Suk [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735 (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Namhyun, E-mail: nhkang@pusan.ac.kr [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735 (Korea, Republic of)
2015-02-15
Highlights: • Stress relaxation after aging 620 °C increased carbides and maintained γ′ fraction. • Aging temperature increase to 732 °C raised the γ′ increment after stress relaxation. • Small increase of carbides induced the large increase of γ′ after stress relaxation. • Loading for stress relaxation raised γ′ increment due to dislocation multiplication. - Abstract: Inconel X-750 is a Ni-based precipitation-hardened superalloy typically used in springs designed for high-temperature applications such as the hold-down springs in nuclear power plants. γ′ is a major precipitate in X-750 alloys which affects the strength, creep resistance, and stress relaxation properties of the spring. In this study, a solution-treated X-750 wire coiled into a spring was used that was aged at various temperatures and submitted to stress relaxation tests with and without loading. Small angle neutron scattering was employed to quantify the size and volume fraction of γ′ phase in the springs as a function of the aging temperature and the application of a load during stress relaxation. The volume fraction of γ′ precipitates increased in the specimen aged at 732 °C following stress relaxation at 500 °C for 300 h. However, the mean size of the precipitates in the samples was not affected by stress relaxation. The specimen aged at the lower temperature (620 °C) contained a smaller γ′ volume fraction and gained a smaller fraction of γ′ during stress relaxation compared with the sample aged at the higher temperature (732 °C). The smaller increase in the γ′ volume fraction for the sample aged at 620 °C was associated with a larger increase in the M{sub 23}C{sub 6} secondary carbide content during relaxation. The Cr depletion zone around the secondary carbides raises the solubility of γ′ thereby decreasing the volume fraction of γ′ precipitates in Inconel X-750. In terms of stress relaxation, a larger increase in the γ′ volume fraction was
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silène T Wavre-Shapton
Full Text Available The retinal pigment epithelium (RPE is a pigmented monolayer of cells lying between the photoreceptors and a layer of fenestrated capillaries, the choriocapillaris. Choroideremia (CHM is an X-linked progressive degeneration of these three layers caused by the loss of function of Rab Escort protein-1 (REP1. REP1 is involved in the prenylation of Rab proteins, key regulators of membrane trafficking. To study the pathological consequences of chronic disruption of membrane traffic in the RPE we used a cell type-specific knock-out mouse model of the disease, where the Chm/Rep1 gene is deleted only in pigmented cells (Chm(Flox, Tyr-Cre+. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM was used to quantitate the melanosome distribution in the RPE and immunofluorescent staining of rhodopsin was used to quantitate phagocytosed rod outer segments in retinal sections. The ultrastructure of the RPE and Bruch's membrane at different ages was characterised by TEM to analyse age-related changes occurring as a result of defects in membrane traffic pathways. Chm/Rep1 gene knockout in RPE cells resulted in reduced numbers of melanosomes in the apical processes and delayed phagosome degradation. In addition, the RPE accumulated pathological changes at 5-6 months of age similar to those observed in 2-year old controls. These included the intracellular accumulation of lipofuscin-containing deposits, disorganised basal infoldings and the extracellular accumulation of basal laminar and basal linear deposits. The phenotype of the Chm(Flox, Tyr-Cre+ mice suggests that loss of the Chm/Rep1 gene causes premature accumulation of features of aging in the RPE. Furthermore, the striking similarities between the present observations and some of the phenotypes reported in age-related macular degeneration (AMD suggest that membrane traffic defects may contribute to the pathogenesis of AMD.
Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures
Wakker, Peter
1981-01-01
It is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a $\\sigma$-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid for the general case, but only for $\\sigma$-algebras. Here the proof of Niiniluoto (1972) is supplemented. Furthermore an example is presented that reveals many misunderstandings in the literature. At the...
Bruns, Deborah A; Campbell, Emily
2014-12-01
Trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome), identified by Patau and colleagues [1960; Lancet 1: 790-793] is the third most common autosomal condition. Population studies indicate less than one in 10 children reaches their first birthday. In the face of mixed findings and recommendations for treatment, additional research is needed to further determine what contributes to longevity and implications for treatment for presenting medical conditions. The purpose of the present study is to report on presenting medical conditions and the presence or absence of the specific conditions (age at survey completion). Data on nine survivors (seven female, two male) with trisomy 13 indicated mean gestational age of approximately 36 weeks, birth weight ranging from 1100 to 3290 g and mean length of 45.3 cm. Length of hospital stay after birth varied. The majority of infants presented with well-known physical characteristics. Medical conditions and their treatment varied at birth and at survey completion. Notably, several infants' cardiac anomalies resolved without surgical intervention. Surgeries were provided for a range of conditions including gastrostomy tube placement to address feeding issues and removal of intestinal blockage. There were no reports of holoprosencephaly. Implications and recommendations are provided. PMID:25323598
Accidents, probabilities and consequences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Following brief discussion of the safety of wind-driven power plants and solar power plants, some aspects of the safety of fast breeder and thermonuclear power plants are presented. It is pointed out that no safety evaluation of breeders comparable to the Rasmussen investigation has been carried out and that discussion of the safety aspects of thermonuclear power is only just begun. Finally, as an illustration of the varying interpretations of risk and safety analyses, four examples are given of predicted probabilities and consequences in Copenhagen of the maximum credible accident at the Barsebaeck plant, under the most unfavourable meterological conditions. These are made by the Environment Commission, Risoe Research Establishment, REO (a pro-nuclear group) and OOA (an anti-nuclear group), and vary by a factor of over 1000. (JIW)
Multiple Chronic Conditions among Adults Aged 45 and Over: Trends Over the Past 10 Years
... needs and use for Medicare and other payers. Keywords: hypertension, diabetes, cancer, prevalence The percentage of adults ... with two or more chronic conditions had increasing difficulty obtaining needed medical care and prescription drugs because ...
Benci, Vieri; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2011-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and zero- and unit-probability events pose no particular epistemological problems. We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability is replaced by a different type of infinite additivity.
Elements of probability theory
Rumshiskii, L Z
1965-01-01
Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments
Evaluating probability forecasts
Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902
2012-01-01
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.
Younes, Mohamed; Robert, Céline; Barrey, Eric; Cottin, François
2016-01-01
Although cardiac recovery is an important criterion for ranking horses in endurance competitions, heart rate variability (HRV) has hardly ever been studied in the context of this equestrian discipline. In the present study, we sought to determine whether HRV is affected by parameters such as age, exercise duration and test site. Accordingly, HRV might be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac recovery. The main objective of the present study was to determine the effects of a...
Conditional tradeoffs between aging and organismal performance of Indy long-lived mutant flies
Marden, James H.; Rogina, Blanka; Montooth, Kristi L.; Helfand, Stephen L.
2003-01-01
Alterations that extend the life span of animals and yeast typically involve decreases in metabolic rate, growth, physical activity, and/or early-life fecundity. This negative correlation between life span and the ability to assimilate and process energy, to move, grow, and reproduce, raises questions about the potential utility of life span extension. Tradeoffs between early-life fitness and longevity are central to theories of the evolution of aging, which suggests there is necessarily a pr...
Age and sex dependence of body potassium based on studies of 40K under Indian conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potassium plays an important role in human life 40K is a naturally occurring radioisotope of potassium (K) with an abundance of 0.0118%. The measurement of body 40K in a whole-body counter (WBC) provides a sensitive technique to estimate the total body potassium (TBK). Information on TBK of Indians with age and sex is scanty. Therefore, a systematic study was taken up to generate this information using a sensitive WBC
Bollen, Kenneth A.
2016-01-01
The “fetal origins” hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino children from Cebu provided evidence consistent with treating FFGC as a latent variable that largely mediates the effects of mother’s characteristics on birth weight, birth length, and gestational age. This innovative method may have widespread utility, but only if the model applies equally well across diverse settings. Our study assesses whether the FFGC model of Cebu replicates and generalizes to a very different population of children from North Carolina (N = 705) and Pennsylvania (N = 494). Using a series of structural equation models, we find that key features of the Cebu analysis replicate and generalize while we also highlight differences between these studies. Our results support treating fetal conditions as a latent variable when researchers test the fetal origins hypothesis. In addition to contributing to the substantive literature on measuring fetal conditions, we also discuss the meaning and challenges involved in replicating prior research. PMID:27097023
Pickart, Loren; Vasquez-Soltero, Jessica Michelle; Margolina, Anna
2012-01-01
Oxidative stress, disrupted copper homeostasis, and neuroinflammation due to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines are considered leading causative factors in development of age-associated neurodegenerative conditions. Recently, a new mechanism of aging-detrimental epigenetic modifications-has emerged. Thus, compounds that possess antioxidant, anti-inflammatory activity as well as compounds capable of restoring copper balance and proper gene functioning may be able to prevent age-associated cognitive decline and ward off many common neurodegenerative conditions. The aim of this paper is to bring attention to a compound with a long history of safe use in wound healing and antiaging skin care. The human tripeptide GHK was discovered in 1973 as an activity in human albumin that caused old human liver tissue to synthesize proteins like younger tissue. It has high affinity for copper ions and easily forms a copper complex or GHK-Cu. In addition, GHK possesses a plethora of other regenerative and protective actions including antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and wound healing properties. Recent studies revealed its ability to up- and downregulate a large number of human genes including those that are critical for neuronal development and maintenance. We propose GHK tripeptide as a possible therapeutic agent against age-associated neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. PMID:22666519
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This standard presents program criteria and implementation guidance for an operational configuration management program for DOE nuclear and non-nuclear facilities. This Part 2 includes chapters on implementation guidance for operational configuration management, implementation guidance for design reconstitution, and implementation guidance for material condition and aging management. Appendices are included on design control, examples of design information, conduct of walkdowns, and content of design information summaries
Roussas, George G
2006-01-01
Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an
Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris
2008-01-01
The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Uchida, Y; Tomonaga, M
1985-11-25
The effects of nerve growth factor (NGF) and heart-cell-conditioned medium (HCM) on the neurite regeneration of aged sympathetic neurons were investigated in culture. Investigation of HCM was carried out by two different methods: one was the use of whole HCM on collagen substratum, which reflected component(s) effective in solution (HCM-S); the other was the use of polyornithine (PORN)-binding component(s) (P-HCM). Superior cervical ganglion neurons prepared from male mice from 6 to 30 months of age were cultured in MEM-10% FCS on collagen or gelatin-PORN substratum for 3 days. The number of neurons with neurites and the length of neurites were quantified as neurite production and elongation, respectively. Neuronal survival was not affected by addition of NGF, HCM-S or P-HCM. Neurite production of early adult neurons was enhanced by NGF, HCM-S or P-HCM. In contrast, neurite production of aged neurons was enhanced by only HCM-S, but not NGF or P-HCM. HCM-S did not promote neurite elongation in neurons at any age. Neurite elongation of early adult neurons was enhanced by NGF or P-HCM. Neurite elongation of aged neurons was enhanced by P-HCM. However, responsiveness of NGF for neurite elongation varied according to substrata. No age-related difference was found in neurite production and elongation in the absence of NGF, HCM-S or P-HCM. These results indicate that responsiveness of aged sympathetic neurons is various in different growth factors. PMID:3840716
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raphaella Lomanto Santos de Almeida
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The study aim was to assess the capacity to undertake the Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL of elderly residents of an Institution for the Aged (IA and their level of accessibility. This is an observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study. The level of independence for BADL was assessed by the Barthel Index and the degree of accessibility of IA was verified through a check-list, based on the Brazilian Standard (NBR 9050/2004, the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards (ABNT. Of the 62 seniors who participated in the study, 64.5% had some degree of functional dependence. Noteworthy the level of functional dependency for activities undertaken in the bathroom among elderly on wheelchair. The assessed physical structure does not fully follow the technical standards established by NBR 9050, with differences mainly in the parameters of bedrooms, bathrooms and stairs. Although much of the institutionalized elderly presenting advanced and most functional vulnerability ages, level of IA architectural accessibility is still insufficient. Rooms and bathrooms are the places with the highest deficit of accessibility and also higher prevalence of falls among the elderly residents. A good level of accessibility in IA, can be an important factor in improving the level of independence for everyday activities and to prevent the risk of falls.
Steves, Claire J; Bird, Sarah; Williams, Frances Mk; Spector, Tim D
2016-02-01
Recently, we have begun to realize that the billions of microorganisms living in symbiosis with us have an influence on disease. Evidence is mounting that the alimentary tract microbiome, in particular, influences both host metabolic potential and its innate and adaptive immune system. Inflammatory states characterize many bone and joint diseases of aging. This prompts the hypothesis that the gut microbiome could alter the inflammatory state of the individual and directly influence the development of these common and burdensome clinical problems. Because the microbiome is easily modifiable, this could have major therapeutic impact. This perspective discusses evidence to date on the role of the microbiome and the highly prevalent age-related disorders of osteoporosis, osteoarthritis, gout, rheumatoid arthritis, sarcopenia, and frailty. It also reviews data on the effects of probiotics and prebiotic interventions in animal and human models. Despite suggestive findings, research to date is not conclusive, and we identify priorities for research to substantiate and translate findings. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. PMID:26676797
Rauch, E; Bergmann, S; Hagn, A; Meixensperger, J; Reese, S; Palme, R; Erhard, M H
2014-06-01
The welfare of an animal is ensured if it is able to fully satisfy its essential species-typical needs in all functional aspects of behaviour. In mink, stereotypies and apathy, internal and/or external injuries as well as increased susceptibility to disease have been known to occur as a result of chronic stress. The non-invasive method of analysing faecal cortisol metabolites (FCM) allows conclusions to be drawn about the stress level in the respective housing system. The objective of this study is to find out how the cortisol metabolites content in the faecal changes with increasing age of the mink under semi-natural housing conditions. Thus, 40 American mink (Neovison vison) were housed in two outdoor enclosures imitating natural conditions. Throughout the entire study (13th to 32nd week of life), faecal samples were collected to measure cortisol metabolites. No differences in FCM concentrations between the two outdoor enclosures were found. In the young mink lower, less fluctuating FCM levels were found than in older animals. After the first faecal collection in the 13th/14th week of life, the level of metabolites decreased slightly (p = 0.032; 17th/18th week). From the 22nd/23rd week onwards until the 30th/31st week, shortly before the animals were pelted, continuously increasing concentrations were then measured. Increasing FCM levels with advancing age of the animals are probably attributable to the onset of sexual maturity and/or the respective season. This has to be taken into account in future studies using this method for assessing welfare and when comparing different mink housing systems. PMID:24033508
Childers, Timothy
2013-01-01
Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,
Introduction to probability models
Ross, Sheldon M
2006-01-01
Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random v
Han, Zanping; Ku, Lixia; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jun; Guo, Shulei; Liu, Haiying; Zhao, Ruifang; Ren, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Liangkun; Su, Huihui; Dong, Lei; Chen, Yanhui
2014-01-01
High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL) maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed g...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Puranik SS
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The field of anthropometry encompasses a variety of human body measurements, such as weight, height and size; including skin fold thickness, circumference, lengths, and breadths. Anthropometry is a key component of nutritional status assessment in children and adults. Anthropometric data for children reflect general health status, dietary adequacy and growth and development over time. The main objective of the study was to diagnose and analyze the magnitude and causes of nutritional and health problems of the village. Method: Anthropometric reference data of 100 children between 7-14 years of age from a small village situated 30 km from Pune. Using this data BMI i.e. Body Mass Index was calculated which helps in determining whether an individual is overweight or underweight. Result: The overall study helped us to find out the socioeconomic condition, hygienic condition as well as nutritional status of children. All the anthropometric measurements of the girls and boys in 7-14 years age group was found to be significantly normal. Conclusion: The hygienic condition of the village was good enough and in turn BMI data shows that the socioeconomic condition of the village was also good.
Tau imaging in the study of ageing, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurodegenerative conditions.
Villemagne, Victor L; Okamura, Nobuyuki
2016-02-01
In vivo tau imaging allows a deeper understanding of tau deposition in the brain, providing insights into the causes, diagnosis and treatment of primary and secondary tauopathies such as Alzheimer's disease, progressive supranuclear palsy, corticobasal syndrome, chronic traumatic encephalopathy, and some variants of frontotemporal lobar degeneration. The cross-sectional and longitudinal assessment of the temporal and spatial patterns of tau deposition in the brain will allow a better understanding of the role tau plays in ageing as well as its relationship with cognition, genotype, and neurodegeneration. It is likely that selective tau imaging could be used as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker of disease progression, as well as a surrogate marker for monitoring of efficacy and patient recruitment for disease-specific therapeutic trials. PMID:26397020
A Numerical Model for the Thermomechanical Conditions During Hydration of Early-age Concrete
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hattel, Jesper; Thorborg, Jesper
2003-01-01
conduction equation. Non-linear phenomena such as sequential casting, maturity dependent material properties, creep and non-linear thermal boundary conditions are all taken into account. Different rheological models describing the viscoelastic behaviour have been implemented. Validations of the model against...... of the maturity and the thermal activation is expressed by the Arrhenius principle. The material properties are assumed to depend on the hydration process via the maturity. The discretization of the governing equations is accomplished by a control volume formulation involving a time-splitting scheme for the heat...
Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring using Line Resonance Analysis (LIRA)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper describes a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the IFE Halden Reactor Project, which is based on Frequency Domain Reflectometry. This method resulted in the development of a system called LIRA (Line Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. This paper presents some results achieved in field experiments on signal cables for nuclear installations, in USA and Europe. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In-vessel composting of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) present in contaminated soil from a manufactured gas plant site was investigated over 98 days using laboratory-scale in-vessel composting reactors. The composting reactors were operated at 18 different operational conditions using a 3-factor factorial design with three temperatures (T, 38 deg. C, 55 deg. C and 70 deg. C), four soil to green waste ratios (S:GW, 0.6:1, 0.7:1, 0.8:1 and 0.9:1 on a dry weight basis) and three moisture contents (MC, 40%, 60% and 80%). PAH losses followed first order kinetics reaching 0.015 day-1 at optimal operational conditions. A factor analysis of the 18 different operational conditions under investigation indicated that the optimal operational conditions for degradation of PAHs occurred at MC 60%, S:GW 0.8:1 and T 38 deg. C. Thus, it is recommended to maintain operational conditions during in-vessel composting of PAH-solid waste close to these values. - Maximum degradation of PAHs in an aged coal tar contaminated soil can be achieved using optimal operational conditions during composting
Deshpande, Nandini; Hewston, Patricia; Yoshikawa, Mika
2015-04-01
The ability to safely perform cognitive-motor dual-tasks is critical for independence of older adults. We compared age-associated differences in global and segmental control during dual-task walking in sub-optimal sensory conditions. Thirteen young (YA) and 13 healthy older (OA) adults walked a straight pathway with cognitive dual-task of walking-while-talking (WT) or no-WT under four sensory conditions. On randomly selected trials, visual and vestibular inputs were manipulated using blurring goggles (BV) and Galvanic Vestibular Stimulation (GVS), respectively. Gait speed decreased more in YA than OA during WT. Gait speed increased with GVS with normal vision but not BV. Step length considerably decreased with WT. Trunk roll significantly decreased only in OA with GVS in WT. Head roll significantly decreased with GVS regardless of age. Results indicate GVS-induced adaptations were dependent on available visual information. YA reduced their gait speed more than OA to achieve a similar pace to safely perform WT. GVS resulted in both age-groups to reduce head movement. However, with the addition of WT during GVS, OA also stiffened their trunk. Therefore, with increased attentional demands healthy OA employed different compensatory strategies than YA to maintain postural control. PMID:25617991
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Loren Pickart
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Oxidative stress, disrupted copper homeostasis, and neuroinflammation due to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines are considered leading causative factors in development of age-associated neurodegenerative conditions. Recently, a new mechanism of aging—detrimental epigenetic modifications—has emerged. Thus, compounds that possess antioxidant, anti-inflammatory activity as well as compounds capable of restoring copper balance and proper gene functioning may be able to prevent age-associated cognitive decline and ward off many common neurodegenerative conditions. The aim of this paper is to bring attention to a compound with a long history of safe use in wound healing and antiaging skin care. The human tripeptide GHK was discovered in 1973 as an activity in human albumin that caused old human liver tissue to synthesize proteins like younger tissue. It has high affinity for copper ions and easily forms a copper complex or GHK-Cu. In addition, GHK possesses a plethora of other regenerative and protective actions including antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and wound healing properties. Recent studies revealed its ability to up- and downregulate a large number of human genes including those that are critical for neuronal development and maintenance. We propose GHK tripeptide as a possible therapeutic agent against age-associated neurodegeneration and cognitive decline.
Jiménez, Alberto; Fabra, María José; Talens, Pau; Chiralt, Amparo
2012-06-20
Edible films based on corn starch, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) and their mixtures were prepared by using two different procedures to homogenize the film forming dispersions (rotor-stator and rotor-stator plus microfluidizer). The influence of both HPMC-starch ratio and the homogenization method on the structural, optical, tensile and barrier properties of the films was analysed. The ageing of the films was also studied by characterizing them after 5 weeks' storage. Starch re-crystallization in newly prepared and stored films was analysed by means of X-ray diffraction. HPMC-corn starch films showed phase separation of polymers, which was enhanced when microfluidization was applied to the film forming dispersion. Nevertheless, HPMC addition inhibited starch re-crystallization during storage, giving rise to more flexible films at the end of the period. Water barrier properties of starch films were hardly affected by the addition of HPMC, although oxygen permeability increased due to its poorer oxygen barrier properties. PMID:24750773
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zanping Han
Full Text Available High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed germination. Sixty-five QTLs distributed between the two populations were identified and a meta-analysis was used to integrate genetic maps. Sixty-one initially identified QTLs were integrated into 18 meta-QTLs (mQTLs. Initial QTLs with contribution to phenotypic variation values of R(2>10% were integrated into mQTLs. Twenty-three candidate genes for association with seed vigor traits coincided with 13 mQTLs. The candidate genes had functions in the glycolytic pathway and in protein metabolism. QTLs with major effects (R(2>10% were identified under at least one treatment condition for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, and mQTL3-4. Candidate genes included a calcium-dependent protein kinase gene (302810918 involved in signal transduction that mapped in the mQTL3-2 interval associated with germination energy (GE and germination percentage (GP, and an hsp20/alpha crystallin family protein gene (At5g51440 that mapped in the mQTL3-4 interval associated with GE and GP. Two initial QTLs with a major effect under at least two treatment conditions were identified for mQTL5-2. A cucumisin-like Ser protease gene (At5g67360 mapped in the mQTL5-2 interval associated with GP. The chromosome regions for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, mQTL3-4, and mQTL5-2 may be hot spots for QTLs related to seed vigor traits. The mQTLs and candidate genes identified in this study provide valuable information for the identification of additional quantitative trait genes.
Han, Zanping; Ku, Lixia; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jun; Guo, Shulei; Liu, Haiying; Zhao, Ruifang; Ren, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Liangkun; Su, Huihui; Dong, Lei; Chen, Yanhui
2014-01-01
High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL) maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed germination. Sixty-five QTLs distributed between the two populations were identified and a meta-analysis was used to integrate genetic maps. Sixty-one initially identified QTLs were integrated into 18 meta-QTLs (mQTLs). Initial QTLs with contribution to phenotypic variation values of R(2)>10% were integrated into mQTLs. Twenty-three candidate genes for association with seed vigor traits coincided with 13 mQTLs. The candidate genes had functions in the glycolytic pathway and in protein metabolism. QTLs with major effects (R(2)>10%) were identified under at least one treatment condition for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, and mQTL3-4. Candidate genes included a calcium-dependent protein kinase gene (302810918) involved in signal transduction that mapped in the mQTL3-2 interval associated with germination energy (GE) and germination percentage (GP), and an hsp20/alpha crystallin family protein gene (At5g51440) that mapped in the mQTL3-4 interval associated with GE and GP. Two initial QTLs with a major effect under at least two treatment conditions were identified for mQTL5-2. A cucumisin-like Ser protease gene (At5g67360) mapped in the mQTL5-2 interval associated with GP. The chromosome regions for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, mQTL3-4, and mQTL5-2 may be hot spots for QTLs related to seed vigor traits. The mQTLs and candidate genes identified in this study provide valuable information for the identification of additional quantitative trait genes. PMID:24651614
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This work gives a description of the adjustment process of NUCIRC code to the actual aging conditions of Embalse nuclear power plant. For this adjustment the flow of the fuel channels of the primary heat transport system (PHTS) is calculated using the channel heat balance flow (CHBF) methodology. Then roughness and the localized loss of charge are modified in NUCIRC code for different groups of channels. These adjustments are done in way to fit by regions the channels flows calculated with NUCIRC to the CHBF flows. The fitting results in a discrepancy by regions of less than 0,1% and an average quadratic error of 5% approximately. These values indicate that the code NUCIRC is right adjusted for critical channel power calculations and aging tracking of PHTS. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Disha Gupta-Ostermann
2015-04-01
Full Text Available In a previous Method Article, we have presented the ‘Structure-Activity Relationship (SAR Matrix’ (SARM approach. The SARM methodology is designed to systematically extract structurally related compound series from screening or chemical optimization data and organize these series and associated SAR information in matrices reminiscent of R-group tables. SARM calculations also yield many virtual candidate compounds that form a “chemical space envelope” around related series. To further extend the SARM approach, different methods are developed to predict the activity of virtual compounds. In this follow-up contribution, we describe an activity prediction method that derives conditional probabilities of activity from SARMs and report representative results of first prospective applications of this approach.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this work, I formulate the persistence probability for a qubit device as the probability of measuring its computational degrees of freedom in the unperturbed state without the decoherence arising from environmental interactions. A decoherence time can be obtained from the persistence probability. Drawing on recent work of Garg, and also Palma, Suomine, and Ekert, I apply the persistence probability formalism to a generic single-qubit device coupled to a thermal environment, and also apply it to a trapped-ion quantum register coupled to the ion vibrational modes. (author)
Albani, Sarah H.
2015-01-01
The late postnatal period in rats is marked by numerous changes in perceptual and cognitive abilities. As such, age-related variation in cognitive test performance might result in part from disparate sensitivities to environmental factors. To better understand how testing conditions might interact with age, we assessed anxiety behavior on an elevated plus maze in juvenile rats around three weeks of age under diverse testing conditions. Plasma corticosterone and neuronal activation patterns in...
Probability: A Matter of Life and Death
Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence
2016-01-01
Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…
Rech, Jason A.; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.
2012-01-01
Analysis of terrestrial gastropods that underlie the late Pleistocene Two Creeks forest bed (~ 13,800–13,500 cal yr BP) in eastern Wisconsin, USA provides evidence for a mixed tundra-taiga environment prior to formation of the taiga forest bed. Ten new AMS 14C analyses on terrestrial gastropod shells indicate the mixed tundra-taiga environment persisted from ~ 14,500 to 13,900 cal yr BP. The Twocreekan climatic substage, representing ice-free conditions on the shore of Lake Michigan, therefore began near the onset of peak warming conditions during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial and lasted ~ 1000 yr, nearly 600 yr longer than previously thought. These results provide important data for understanding the response of continental ice sheets to global climate forcing and demonstrate the potential of using terrestrial gastropod fossils for both environmental reconstruction and age control in late Quaternary sediments.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This report summarizes results generated on a 5-year cable-aging program that constituted part of the Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization (NEPO) program, an effort cosponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The NEPO cable-aging effort concentrated on two important issues involving the development of better lifetime prediction methods as well as the development and testing of novel cable condition-monitoring (CM) techniques. To address improved life prediction methods, we first describe the use of time-temperature superposition principles, indicating how this approach improves the testing of the Arrhenius model by utilizing all of the experimentally generated data instead of a few selected and processed data points. Although reasonable superposition is often found, we show several cases where non-superposition is evident, a situation that violates the constant acceleration assumption normally used in accelerated aging studies. Long-term aging results over extended temperature ranges allow us to show that curvature in Arrhenius plots for elongation is a common occurrence. In all cases the curvature results in a lowering of the Arrhenius activation energy at lower temperatures implying that typical extrapolation of high temperature results over-estimates material lifetimes. The long-term results also allow us to test the significance of extrapolating through the crystalline melting point of semi-crystalline materials. By utilizing ultrasensitive oxygen consumption (UOC) measurements, we show that it is possible to probe the low temperature extrapolation region normally inaccessible to conventional accelerated aging studies. This allows the quantitative testing of the often-used Arrhenius extrapolation assumption. Such testing indicates that many materials again show evidence of ''downward'' curvature (Ea values drop as the aging temperature is lowered) consistent with the limited elongation results and many
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Assink, Roger Alan; Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Bernstein, Robert
2005-11-01
This report summarizes results generated on a 5-year cable-aging program that constituted part of the Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization (NEPO) program, an effort cosponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The NEPO cable-aging effort concentrated on two important issues involving the development of better lifetime prediction methods as well as the development and testing of novel cable condition-monitoring (CM) techniques. To address improved life prediction methods, we first describe the use of time-temperature superposition principles, indicating how this approach improves the testing of the Arrhenius model by utilizing all of the experimentally generated data instead of a few selected and processed data points. Although reasonable superposition is often found, we show several cases where non-superposition is evident, a situation that violates the constant acceleration assumption normally used in accelerated aging studies. Long-term aging results over extended temperature ranges allow us to show that curvature in Arrhenius plots for elongation is a common occurrence. In all cases the curvature results in a lowering of the Arrhenius activation energy at lower temperatures implying that typical extrapolation of high temperature results over-estimates material lifetimes. The long-term results also allow us to test the significance of extrapolating through the crystalline melting point of semi-crystalline materials. By utilizing ultrasensitive oxygen consumption (UOC) measurements, we show that it is possible to probe the low temperature extrapolation region normally inaccessible to conventional accelerated aging studies. This allows the quantitative testing of the often-used Arrhenius extrapolation assumption. Such testing indicates that many materials again show evidence of ''downward'' curvature (E{sub a} values drop as the aging temperature is lowered) consistent with the limited
Yokota, Renata Tiene de Carvalho; Nusselder, Wilma Johanna; Robine, Jean-Marie; Tafforeau, Jean; Deboosere, Patrick; Van Oyen, Herman
2016-01-01
Introduction Smoking is considered the single most important preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, contributing to increased incidence and severity of disabling conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of chronic conditions to the disability burden across smoking categories in middle-aged adults in Belgium. Methods Data from 10,224 individuals aged 40 to 60 years who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used. Smoking status was defined as never, former (cessation ≥2 years), former (cessation <2 years), occasional light (<20 cigarettes/day), daily light, and daily heavy (≥20 cigarettes/day). To attribute disability to chronic conditions, binomial additive hazards models were fitted separately for each smoking category adjusted for gender, except for former (cessation <2 years) and occasional light smokers due to the small sample size. Results An increasing trend in the disability prevalence was observed across smoking categories in men (never = 4.8%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 5.8%, daily light = 7.8%, daily heavy = 10.7%) and women (never = 7.6%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 8.0%, daily light = 10.2%, daily heavy = 12.0%). Musculoskeletal conditions showed a substantial contribution to the disability burden in men and women across all smoking categories. Other important contributors were depression and cardiovascular diseases in never smokers; depression, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in former smokers (cessation ≥2 years); chronic respiratory diseases, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases in daily light smokers; cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases in men and depression and diabetes in women daily heavy smokers. Conclusions Beyond the well-known effect of smoking on mortality, our findings showed an increasing trend of the disability prevalence and different contributors to the disability burden across smoking categories. This
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Prabhu, Narahari
2011-01-01
Recent research in probability has been concerned with applications such as data mining and finance models. Some aspects of the foundations of probability theory have receded into the background. Yet, these aspects are very important and have to be brought back into prominence.
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elena Druica
2007-05-01
Full Text Available The science of probabilities has earned a special place because it tried through its concepts to build a bridge between theory and experimenting.As a formal notion which by definition does not lead to polemic, probability, nevertheless, meets a series of difficulties of interpretation whenever the probability must be applied to certain particular situations.Usually, the economic literature brings into discussion two interpretations of the concept of probability:the objective interpretation often found under the name of frequency or statistical interpretation and the subjective or personal interpretation. Surprisingly, the third appproach is excluded:the logical interpretation.The purpose of the present paper is to study some aspects of the subjective and logical interpretation of the probability, aswell as the implications in the economics.
Carrillo Cubides, Raúl; Aldana Alarcón, Luis Gonzalo; Gutiérrez Galvis, Adriana Rocío
2015-01-01
During the past five decades there has been an increased in the prevalence of obesity and over weight, also in physical inactivity and /or low cardiorespiratory fitness within the population in school age from diverse regions of the planet, including Bogota-Colombia. The general objective of this study was to compare the physical condition and the levels of physical activity from students who belonged to two curriculum programs of the Public Schools Network from Bogota, one of which includes two sessions per week, each session of 90 minutes of physical activity. We developed a research of unlike cross-sectional groups. There were 178 children evaluated from the regular curriculum and 170 kids belonging to the program 40 x 40. The physical condition was evaluated applying the protocol of high priority from the ALPHA -Fitness test Battery. The weight, height, body mass index, the waist circumference, the standing long jump, the handgrip in both hands and the motor fitness 20 meter shuttle run test were developed under standardized conditions. The Global School Health Survey (GSHS) was used to evaluate the levels of AF. No significant statistical differences were founded between P-40x40 and the regular curriculum regarding: weight, height, the body mass index, the waist circumference, the handgrip in both hands and the explosive strength in lower limbs. Nevertheless the cardiorespiratory fitness was significantly lower within de P-40x40. In conclusion the participation in the curricular program 40 x 40 was not associated with better levels of physical condition. PMID:26545682
A Tutorial Introduction to the Logic of Parametric Probability
Norman, Joseph W.
2012-01-01
The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the probabilities of logical propositions. An alternative direct probability encoding scheme is presented, which allows statements of implication and quantification to be modeled directly as constraints on conditional probabilities. Several example problems are so...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grenier, C. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Dept. de Mecanique et de Technologie]|[Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 75 - Paris (France)
1997-12-31
The study addresses the issues of groundwater flow and particle transport in a 2-D heterogenous porous medium. We follow here the line of G. Dagan and Y. Rubin. In a series of articles these authors propose and represent the variables involves (transmissivity, head, Darcy velocity, particle position and travel time) by means of stochastic processes. The (unconditional) moments are first derived by solving the partial differential equations corresponding to a 2-D flow in a saturated medium, with no recharge. In a second step, the variances of the processes are reduced bu taking local data into account within the conditional probabilities framework. In this document we present a complete theoretical study of the method and apply it on synthetical test cases. We deal with the following matters: study the impact of different data type and configurations on the conditional estimation of the flow and transport variables; study the robustness of the model for increasing levels of heterogeneity by means of comparison with the moments obtained by Monte-Carlo simulations. The method is enlarged to weakly un-stationary flow cases (non constant transmissivity and head gradient means) and applied on synthetical test cases. (author) 80 refs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
Ward, Brian W; Black, Lindsey I
2016-01-01
The prevalence and care management of multiple (two or more) chronic conditions (MCC) are important public health concerns (1). Approximately 25% of U.S. adults have diagnoses of MCC (2). Care management of MCC presents a challenge to both patients and providers because of the substantial costs associated with treating more than one condition and the traditional care strategies that focus on single conditions as opposed to enhanced care coordination (3,4). Maintaining surveillance, targeting service delivery, and projecting resources are all important to meet this challenge, and these actions can be informed by identifying state and other regional variations in MCC prevalence (5,6). Data from the 2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to estimate prevalence of MCC (defined as two or more of 10 diagnosed chronic conditions) for each U.S. state and region by age and sex. Significant state and regional variation in MCC prevalence was found, with state-level estimates ranging from 19.0% in Colorado to 38.2% in Kentucky. MCC prevalence also varied by region, ranging from 21.4% in the Pacific region to 34.5% in the East South Central region. The prevalence of MCC was higher among women than among men within certain U.S. regions, and was higher in older persons in all regions. Such findings further the research and surveillance objectives stated in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) publication, Multiple Chronic Conditions: A Strategic Framework (1). Furthermore, geographic disparities in MCC prevalence can inform state-level surveillance programs and groups targeting service delivery or allocating resources for MCC prevention activities. PMID:27467707
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stress controlled fatigue-creep tests were carried out for 316L stainless steel under different loading conditions, i.e. different loading levels at the fixed temperature (loading condition 1, LC1) and different temperatures at the fixed loading level (loading condition 2, LC2). Cyclic deformation behaviors were investigated with respect to the evolutions of strain amplitude and mean strain. Abrupt mean strain jumps were found during cyclic deformation, which was in response to the dynamic strain aging effect. Moreover, as to LC1, when the minimum stress is negative at 550 deg. C, abrupt mean strain jumps occur at the early stage of cyclic deformation and there are many jumps during the whole process. While the minimum stress is positive, mean strain only jumps once at the end of deformation. Similar results were also found in LC2, when the loading level is fixed at -100 to 385 MPa, at higher temperatures (560, 575 deg. C), abrupt mean strain jumps occur at the early stage of cyclic deformation and there are many jumps during the whole process. While at lower temperature (540 deg. C), mean strain only jumps once at the end of deformation.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;
2014-01-01
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that...
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake “calibrating adjustments” to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Marshall, Jennings B.
2007-01-01
This article describes how roulette can be used to teach basic concepts of probability. Various bets are used to illustrate the computation of expected value. A betting system shows variations in patterns that often appear in random events.
Monte Carlo transition probabilities
Lucy, L. B.
2001-01-01
Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Bayesian default probability models
Andrlíková, Petra
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a methodology for default probability estimation for low default portfolios, where the statistical inference may become troublesome. The author suggests using logistic regression models with the Bayesian estimation of parameters. The piecewise logistic regression model and Box-Cox transformation of credit risk score is used to derive the estimates of probability of default, which extends the work by Neagu et al. (2009). The paper shows that the Bayesian models are more acc...
Andrew J. Filardo
1998-01-01
This paper discusses a practical estimation issue for time-varying transition probability (TVTP) Markov switching models. Time-varying transition probabilities allow researchers to capture important economic behavior that may be missed using constant (or fixed) transition probabilities. Despite its use, Hamilton’s (1989) filtering method for estimating fixed transition probability Markov switching models may not apply to TVTP models. This paper provides a set of sufficient conditions to justi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Angela Luzia Miranda
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE The ethical dimension of the human condition in our times takes increasingly more space in current philosophical discussions. In this context, the ethical principle of responsibility has been widely discussed, particularly by authors who work on the ethical implications of modern technology. In his essay on ethics for the technological age, Hans Jonas proposes to base ethics on a principle of responsibility, taking into account that we live in the age of technological civilization. The present paper explores the origins and sources of Jonas’ principle of responsibility, focusing on the influence of his teacher Martin Heidegger on Jonas’s work. The paper analyses the intrinsic and intriguing relationship between Heidegger’s ontological concept of “care” [Sorge] and the idea or responsibility in Jonas, and it examines further the current discussion on the possibility of an ethical foundation for the techno scientific civilization. Keywords: Philosophy of technology; Éthics and technology; Ontology; Martin Heidegger; Hans Jonas.
Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, D.L.
1988-12-01
Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.
Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Buchilova Irina
2013-06-01
Full Text Available This article discusses the features of adaptation senior preschool age children severe speech impairment to the conditions of the compensation groups preschool of combined type. The directions, methods, form of psychological and pedagogical work on its optimization
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Koyanagi, Ai; Garin, Noe; Olaya, Beatriz; Ayuso-Mateos, Jose Luis; Chatterji, Somnath; Leonardi, Matilde; Koskinen, Seppo; Tobiasz-Adamczyk, Beata; Haro, Josep Maria
2014-01-01
BACKGROUND: Data on the association between chronic conditions or the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems in low- or middle-income countries is scarce, and global comparisons of these associations with high-income countries have not been conducted. METHODS: Data on 42116 individuals 50 years and older from nationally-representative samples of the Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (Finland, Poland, Spain) and the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Toledo-Rodriguez
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Adolescence is a period of major physical, hormonal, and psychological changes. It is also characterized by a significant increase in the incidence of psychopathologies and this increase is gender-specific. Stress during adolescence is associated with the development of psychiatric disorders later in life. In this study, we evaluated the impact of psychogenic stress (exposure to predator odor followed by placement on an elevated platform experienced before puberty (days 28–30 on fear memories and hormonal response of male and female rats during adolescence and early adulthood. Stress before puberty impacted in a sex- and age-specific way on the responses to auditory and contextual fear conditioning in adolescence and adulthood: (a increased conditioned fear to the tone in males during adolescence but not during adulthood; (b impaired extinction to the tone in adult males; and (c reduced freezing responses to the context in adolescent females. Stress before puberty did not influence the corticosterone levels 30 minutes after an additional stressor given in adulthood. These results indicate that stress experienced prior to puberty can exert a sex-related differential impact on fear-related behaviors displayed by individuals during late adolescence and early adulthood.
Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling
Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.
2007-01-01
Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…
Correlation as Probability of Common Descent.
Falk, Ruma; Well, Arnold D.
1996-01-01
One interpretation of the Pearson product-moment correlation ("r"), correlation as the probability of originating from common descent, important to the genetic measurement of inbreeding, is examined. The conditions under which "r" can be interpreted as the probability of "identity by descent" are specified, and the possibility of generalizing this…
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving a...
Minimum Probability Flow Learning
Sohl-Dickstein, Jascha; DeWeese, Michael R
2009-01-01
Learning in probabilistic models is often severely hampered by the general intractability of the normalization factor and its derivatives. Here we propose a new learning technique that obviates the need to compute an intractable normalization factor or sample from the equilibrium distribution of the model. This is achieved by establishing dynamics that would transform the observed data distribution into the model distribution, and then setting as the objective the minimization of the initial flow of probability away from the data distribution. Score matching, minimum velocity learning, and certain forms of contrastive divergence are shown to be special cases of this learning technique. We demonstrate the application of minimum probability flow learning to parameter estimation in Ising models, deep belief networks, multivariate Gaussian distributions and a continuous model with a highly general energy function defined as a power series. In the Ising model case, minimum probability flow learning outperforms cur...
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...
Negative Probabilities and Contextuality
de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary
2015-01-01
There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Probability densities in strong turbulence
Yakhot, Victor
2006-03-01
In this work we, using Mellin’s transform combined with the Gaussian large-scale boundary condition, calculate probability densities (PDFs) of velocity increments P(δu,r), velocity derivatives P(u,r) and the PDF of the fluctuating dissipation scales Q(η,Re), where Re is the large-scale Reynolds number. The resulting expressions strongly deviate from the Log-normal PDF P(δu,r) often quoted in the literature. It is shown that the probability density of the small-scale velocity fluctuations includes information about the large (integral) scale dynamics which is responsible for the deviation of P(δu,r) from P(δu,r). An expression for the function D(h) of the multifractal theory, free from spurious logarithms recently discussed in [U. Frisch, M. Martins Afonso, A. Mazzino, V. Yakhot, J. Fluid Mech. 542 (2005) 97] is also obtained.
Real analysis and probability solutions to problems
Ash, Robert P
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability: Solutions to Problems presents solutions to problems in real analysis and probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability; the interplay between measure theory and topology; conditional probability and expectation; the central limit theorem; and strong laws of large numbers in terms of martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with problems and solutions for the theory of measure and integration, followed by various applications of the basic integration theory.
Entailment in Probability of Thresholded Generalizations
Bamber, Donald
2013-01-01
A nonmonotonic logic of thresholded generalizations is presented. Given propositions A and B from a language L and a positive integer k, the thresholded generalization A=>B{k} means that the conditional probability P(B|A) falls short of one by no more than c*d^k. A two-level probability structure is defined. At the lower level, a model is defined to be a probability function on L. At the upper level, there is a probability distribution over models. A definition is given of what it means for a...
Transition Probability Estimates for Reversible Markov Chains
Telcs, Andras
2000-01-01
This paper provides transition probability estimates of transient reversible Markov chains. The key condition of the result is the spatial symmetry and polynomial decay of the Green's function of the chain.
Probably Almost Bayes Decisions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.; Simon, H.- U.
1996-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Quznetsov, Gunn
1998-01-01
The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The variant of the nonstandard analysis is adopted for the definition of the logical function, which has all properties of the classical probability function. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of this function.
Quznetsov, G. A.
2003-01-01
The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The variant of the nonstandard analysis is adopted for the definition of the logical function, which has all properties of the classical probability function. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of this function.
Transition probabilities for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harcourt Robert G
2006-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Chemical immobilization of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii has previously been, for the most part, problematic and this has been mainly attributed to the type of immobilizing agent used. In addition to individual sensitivity, physiological status may play an important role. We investigated the use of the intravenous administration of a 1:1 mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam (Telazol® to immobilize adult females at different points during a physiologically demanding 5–6 week lactation period. We also compared performance between IV and IM injection of the same mixture. Results The tiletamine:zolazepam mixture administered intravenously was an effective method for immobilization with no fatalities or pronounced apnoeas in 106 procedures; however, there was a 25 % (one animal in four mortality rate with intramuscular administration. Induction time was slightly longer for females at the end of lactation (54.9 ± 2.3 seconds than at post-parturition (48.2 ± 2.9 seconds. In addition, the number of previous captures had a positive effect on induction time. There was no evidence for effects due to age, condition (total body lipid, stage of lactation or number of captures on recovery time. Conclusion We suggest that intravenous administration of tiletamine and zolazepam is an effective and safe immobilizing agent for female Weddell seals. Although individual traits could not explain variation in recovery time, we suggest careful monitoring of recovery times during longitudinal studies (> 2 captures. We show that physiological pressures do not substantially affect response to chemical immobilization with this mixture; however, consideration must be taken for differences that may exist for immobilization of adult males and juveniles. Nevertheless, we recommend a mass-specific dose of 0.50 – 0.65 mg/kg for future procedures with adult female Weddell seals and a starting dose of 0.50 mg/kg for other age classes and other
Generalized couplings and convergence of transition probabilities
Kulik, Alexei; Scheutzow, Michael
2015-01-01
We provide sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of an invariant measure of a Markov process as well as for the weak convergence of transition probabilities to the invariant measure. Our conditions are formulated in terms of generalized couplings. We apply our results to several SPDEs for which unique ergodicity has been proven in a recent paper by Glatt-Holtz, Mattingly, and Richards and show that under essentially the same assumptions the weak convergence of transition probabilities actu...
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Balderson, Michael; Brown, Derek; Johnson, Patricia; Kirkby, Charles
2016-01-01
The purpose of this work was to compare static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in terms of tumor control probability (TCP) under scenarios involving large geometric misses, i.e., those beyond what are accounted for when margin expansion is determined. Using a planning approach typical for these treatments, a linear-quadratic-based model for TCP was used to compare mean TCP values for a population of patients who experiences a geometric miss (i.e., systematic and random shifts of the clinical target volume within the planning target dose distribution). A Monte Carlo approach was used to account for the different biological sensitivities of a population of patients. Interestingly, for errors consisting of coplanar systematic target volume offsets and three-dimensional random offsets, static gantry IMRT appears to offer an advantage over VMAT in that larger shift errors are tolerated for the same mean TCP. For example, under the conditions simulated, erroneous systematic shifts of 15mm directly between or directly into static gantry IMRT fields result in mean TCP values between 96% and 98%, whereas the same errors on VMAT plans result in mean TCP values between 45% and 74%. Random geometric shifts of the target volume were characterized using normal distributions in each Cartesian dimension. When the standard deviations were doubled from those values assumed in the derivation of the treatment margins, our model showed a 7% drop in mean TCP for the static gantry IMRT plans but a 20% drop in TCP for the VMAT plans. Although adding a margin for error to a clinical target volume is perhaps the best approach to account for expected geometric misses, this work suggests that static gantry IMRT may offer a treatment that is more tolerant to geometric miss errors than VMAT. PMID:27067229
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2008-01-01
The microstructures after various ageing treatments and their relation to the strength,fracture toughness,and corrosion behavior of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy pre-stretched plate were investigated.The results show that retrogression and reaging (RRA) treatment led to a combination of high strength and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) resistance of the alloy.The TEM microstructure of the RRA-treated alloy is a distribution of very fine precipitates in the aluminum matrix grains,similar to that obtained under T6 condition,and the distribution of coarse η MgZn2 precipitates on the grain boundaries similar to that obtained by T7 temper.SEM observations revealed that most of the intergranular fracture characteristics were present on the fracture surface of both the T6 and RRA-treated specimens.On the contrary,the fractographs of the T7 treated specimens mainly consisted of dimple-type ductile transgranular fracture with minor intergranular cracking.
Waste Package Misload Probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
J.K. Knudsen
2001-11-20
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.
Waste Package Misload Probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Objectifying Subjective Probabilities
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Childers, Timothy
Dordrecht: Springer, 2012 - ( Weber , M.; Dieks, D.; Gonzalez, W.; Hartman, S.; Stadler, F.; Stöltzner, M.), s. 19-28. (The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective. 3). ISBN 978-94-007-3029-8. [Pluralism in the Foundations of Statistics. Canterbury (GB), 09.09.2010-10.09.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/10/1504 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : probabilities * direct Inference Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lykke, Rune; Blaakær, Jan; Ottesen, Bent;
2015-01-01
INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery after hysterectomy from 1977 to 2009, the time interval from hysterectomy to POP surgery, and age characteristics of women undergoing POP surgery after hysterectomy and to...
Probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)
Sirca, Simon
2016-01-01
This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.
Measurement Uncertainty and Probability
Willink, Robin
2013-02-01
Part I. Principles: 1. Introduction; 2. Foundational ideas in measurement; 3. Components of error or uncertainty; 4. Foundational ideas in probability and statistics; 5. The randomization of systematic errors; 6. Beyond the standard confidence interval; Part II. Evaluation of Uncertainty: 7. Final preparation; 8. Evaluation using the linear approximation; 9. Evaluation without the linear approximations; 10. Uncertainty information fit for purpose; Part III. Related Topics: 11. Measurement of vectors and functions; 12. Why take part in a measurement comparison?; 13. Other philosophies; 14. An assessment of objective Bayesian methods; 15. A guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement; 16. Measurement near a limit - an insoluble problem?; References; Index.
Integration, measure and probability
Pitt, H R
2012-01-01
This text provides undergraduate mathematics students with an introduction to the modern theory of probability as well as the roots of the theory's mathematical ideas and techniques. Centered around the concept of measure and integration, the treatment is applicable to other branches of analysis and explores more specialized topics, including convergence theorems and random sequences and functions.The initial part is devoted to an exploration of measure and integration from first principles, including sets and set functions, general theory, and integrals of functions of real variables. These t
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. H. Rhodes
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The Little Ice Age (LIA is the most recent abrupt climate change event. Understanding its forcings and associated climate system feedbacks is made difficult by a scarcity of Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate records. In this paper we utilise ice core glaciochemical records to reconstruct atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctic, a region influenced by two contrasting meteorological regimes: katabatic winds and cyclones. Stable isotope (δD and lithophile element concentration (e.g., Al records indicate that the region experienced ~1.75 °C cooler temperatures and strong (>57 m s^{−1} prevailing katabatic winds during the LIA. We observe that the 1590–1875 record is characterised by high d-excess values and marine element (e.g., Na concentrations, which are linked to the intrusion of cyclonic systems. The strongest katabatic wind events of the LIA, marked by Al, Ti and Pb concentration increases of an order of magnitude (>120 ppb Al, also occur during this interval. Furthermore, concentrations of the biogenic sulphur species MS^{−} suggest that biological productivity in the Ross Sea Polynya was ~80% higher prior to 1875 than in the subsequent time. We propose that colder temperatures and intensified cyclonic activity in the Ross Sea promoted stronger katabatic winds across the Ross Ice Shelf, resulting in an enlarged polynya with increased sea ice and bottom water production. It is therefore hypothesised that increased bottom water formation during the LIA occurred in response to atmospheric circulation change.
Azofeifa, Alejandro; Yeung, Lorraine F.; Alverson, C. J.; Beltrán-Aguilar, Eugenio
2014-01-01
Introduction Oral diseases can be prevented or improved with regular dental visits. Our objective was to assess and compare national estimates on self-reported oral health conditions and dental visits among pregnant women and nonpregnant women of childbearing age by using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Methods We analyzed self-reported oral health information on 897 pregnant women and 3,971 nonpregnant women of childbearing age (15–44 years) from NHAN...
Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability
Oas, G.; de Barros, J. Acacio; Carvalhaes, C.
2014-01-01
Bipartite and tripartite EPR-Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where elementary probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alterna...
Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.
Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung
2016-01-01
Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment. PMID:26971717
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Dreslerová, Dagmar; Kočár, Petr; Chuman, T.; Šefrna, L.; Poništiak, Š.
2013-01-01
Roč. 40, č. 4 (2013), s. 1988-2000. ISSN 0305-4403 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z80020508 Institutional support: RVO:67985912 Keywords : crop husbandry * charred cereal grains * environment * weather * soils * Late Bronze Age/Early Iron Age Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology Impact factor: 2.139, year: 2013
Probable maximum flood control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility
Emptiness Formation Probability
Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon
2016-08-01
We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.
Measure, integral and probability
Capiński, Marek
2004-01-01
Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.
Breakdown Point Theory for Implied Probability Bootstrap
Lorenzo Camponovo; Taisuke Otsu
2011-01-01
This paper studies robustness of bootstrap inference methods under moment conditions. In particular, we compare the uniform weight and implied probability bootstraps by analyzing behaviors of the bootstrap quantiles when outliers take arbitrarily large values, and derive the breakdown points for those bootstrap quantiles. The breakdown point properties characterize the situation where the implied probability bootstrap is more robust than the uniform weight bootstrap against outliers. Simulati...
On the Robustness of Most Probable Explanations
Chan, Hei; Darwiche, Adnan
2012-01-01
In Bayesian networks, a Most Probable Explanation (MPE) is a complete variable instantiation with a highest probability given the current evidence. In this paper, we discuss the problem of finding robustness conditions of the MPE under single parameter changes. Specifically, we ask the question: How much change in a single network parameter can we afford to apply while keeping the MPE unchanged? We will describe a procedure, which is the first of its kind, that computes this answer for each p...
Savage s Concept of Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
熊卫
2003-01-01
Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...
Amaral, Regina; Ozcan, Mutlu; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Balducci, Ivan; Bottino, Marco Antonio
2008-01-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the durability of bond strength between a resin cement and aluminous ceramic submitted to various surface conditioning methods. Twenty-four blocks (5 X 5 X 4 mm 3) of a glass-in filtrated zirconia-alumina ceramic (inCeram Zirconia Classic) were randomly di
Grace, Fergal M.; Herbert, Peter; Ratcliffe, John W.; New, Karl J.; Baker, Julien S.; Sculthorpe, Nicholas F.
2015-01-01
Abstract Aging is associated with diffuse impairments in vascular endothelial function and traditional aerobic exercise is known to ameliorate these changes. High intensity interval training (HIIT) is effective at improving vascular function in aging men with existing disease, but its effectiveness remains to be demonstrated in otherwise healthy sedentary aging. However, the frequency of commonly used HIIT protocols may be poorly tolerated in older cohorts. Therefore, the present study investigated the effectiveness of lower frequency HIIT (LfHIIT) on vascular function in a cohort of lifelong sedentary (SED; n =22, age 62.7 ± 5.2 years) men compared with a positive control group of lifelong exercisers (LEX; n = 17, age 61.1 ± 5.4 years). The study consisted of three assessment phases; enrolment to the study (Phase A), following 6 weeks of conditioning exercise in SED (Phase B) and following 6 weeks of low frequency HIIT in both SED and LEX (LfHIIT; Phase C). Conditioning exercise improved FMD in SED (3.4 ± 1.5% to 4.9 ± 1.1%; P <0.01) such that the difference between groups on enrolment (3.4 ± 1.5% vs. 5.3 ± 1.4%; P <0.01) was abrogated. This was maintained but not further improved following LfHIIT in SED whilst FMD remained unaffected by LfHIIT in LEX. In conclusion, LfHIIT is effective at maintaining improvements in vascular function achieved during conditioning exercise in SED. LfHIIT is a well‐tolerated and effective exercise mode for reducing cardiovascular risk and maintaining but does not improve vascular function beyond that achieved by conditioning exercise in aging men, irrespective of fitness level. PMID:25626864
Exact Bures Probabilities of Separability
Slater, P B
1999-01-01
We reexamine the question of what constitutes the conditional Bures or "quantum Jeffreys" prior for a certain four-dimensional convex subset (P) of the eight-dimensional convex set (Q) of 3 x 3 density matrices (rho_{Q}). We find that two competing procedures yield related but not identical priors - the prior previously reported (J. Phys. A 29, L271 [1996]) being normalizable over P, the new prior here, not. Both methods rely upon the same formula of Dittmann for the Bures metric tensor g, but differ in the parameterized form of rho employed. In the earlier approach, the input is a member of P, that is rho_{P}, while here it is rho_{Q}, and only after this computation is the conditioning on P performed. Then, we investigate several one-dimensional subsets of the fifteen-dimensional set of 4 x 4 density matrices, to which we apply, in particular, the first methodology. Doing so, we determine exactly the conditional Bures probabilities of separability into product states of 2 x 2 density matrices. We find that ...
Issues on Living Condition for Aging Population in Sustainable Development City%城市可持续发展中的老年人口生存环境
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
傅桦; 吴雁华
2000-01-01
分析可持续发展城市主要特点及与老龄人口的关系，论述城市老年人口的生存环境组成.为了保证城市的持续发展，应当充分考虑老年人的多种需求，发挥城市信息流的作用，建立适应老龄化的可持续发展行动方案，强化社区养老职能，提高老年人口在经济发展中的贡献率，建立城市老年金融机构等.%This paper states the main properties of sustainable city and its relation with aging population.The living condition for the aging includes society,spirit,nature,economy,resource,nutrition,and nonaging population.In order to maintain the development of sustainable city,it is necessary to meet the various needs of every aging people,value the role of exchanging information,take proper action for sake of the aging,consolidate the serving function in community,pay attention to the aging contribution in economical development,and construct finance institution for the aging.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesca Caterina Izzo
2014-12-01
Full Text Available This study is part of a research project dealing with the establishment of monitoring and damage prevention plans for contemporary artworks. For this purpose, some commercial paints, among the most currently used by young artists, were selected: Winton oil paint (Winsor & Newton, UK, Heavy Body acrylic paint (Liquitex, USA and Flashe vinyl paint (Lefranc & Bourgeois, France. The paints were subjected to different treatments of accelerated ageing, the results indicating different behaviour in relation both to the type of binders and pigments present in the different formulations. In particular, it was observed that ageing produced by ozone plays an important role in the stability of the oil paints, above all in those containing organic azo pigments. Thermal ageing, as expected, influences the stability of all the commercial paints examined, with the formation of alteration products and visible changes in the paint films. Ageing produced by moisture clearly affects the synthetic polymer-based paints, particularly evident in the changes in mass. In all cases, the accelerated ageing treatments produced chromatic variations, more evidently for the oil paints containing organic pigment.
Keith Maurice Kendrick
2015-01-01
There is evidence for both neurotoxic and neuroprotective roles of nitric oxide (NO) in the brain and changes in the expression of the neuronal isoform of nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) gene occur during aging. The current studies have investigated potential support for either a neurotoxic or neuroprotective role of NO derived from nNOS in the context of aging by comparing olfactory learning and locomotor function in young compared to old nNOS knockout (nNOS/-) and wildtype control mice. Tasks ...
James, Bronwen M.; Li, Qin; Luo, Lizhu; Kendrick, Keith M.
2015-01-01
There is evidence for both neurotoxic and neuroprotective roles of nitric oxide (NO) in the brain and changes in the expression of the neuronal isoform of NO synthase (nNOS) gene occur during aging. The current studies have investigated potential support for either a neurotoxic or neuroprotective role of NO derived from nNOS in the context of aging by comparing olfactory learning and locomotor function in young compared to old nNOS knockout (nNOS−/−) and wildtype control mice. Tasks involving...
Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julian Vasilev
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.
Bisaz, Reto; Boadas-Vaello, Pere; Genoux, David; Sandi, Carmen
2013-01-01
Most of the mechanisms involved in neural plasticity support cognition, and aging has a considerable effect on some of these processes. The neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) of the immunoglobulin superfamily plays a pivotal role in structural and functional plasticity and is required to modulate cognitive and emotional behaviors. However,…
Reed, P.; Staytom, L.; Stott, S.; Truzoli, R.
2011-01-01
Background: This study investigated the relative ease of learning across four tasks suggested by an adaptation of Thomas's hierarchy of learning in children with Down syndrome, autism spectrum disorders and mental age-matched controls. Methods: Learning trials were carried out to investigate observational learning, instrumental learning, reversal…
Mechanical Response of Al-1.09Mg2Si Alloy under Varying Mould and Thermal Ageing Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. I. Sekunowo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Samples of the 6063 (Al-1.09Mg2Si alloy ingot were melted in a crucible furnace and cast in metal and sand moulds, respectively. Standard tensile, hardness, and microstructural test specimens were prepared from cast samples, solution treated at 520∘C, soaked for 6 hrs, and immediately quenched at ambient temperature in a trough containing water to assume a supersaturated structure. The quenched specimens were then thermally aged at 175∘C for 3–7 hrs. Results show that at different ageing time, varied fractions of precipitates and intermetallics evolved in the specimens’ matrices which affect the resulting mechanical properties. The metal mould specimens aged for four hours (MTA-4 exhibited superior ultimate tensile strength of 247.8 MPa; microhardness, 68.5 HV; elongation, 28.2% . It is concluded that the extent of improvement in mechanical properties depends on the fractions, coherence, and distribution of precipitates along with the type of intermetallics developed in the alloy during ageing process.
Korchuganova, Olesya A.; Thuvander, Mattias; Aleev, Andrey A.; Rogozhkin, Sergey V.; Boll, Torben; Kulevoy, Timur V.
2016-08-01
Nanostructure evolution during ion irradiation of two thermally aged binary Fee22Cr alloys has been investigated using atom probe tomography. Specimens aged at 500 °C for 50 and 200 h were irradiated by 5.6 MeV Fe ions at room temperature up to fluences of 0.3 × 1015 ions/cm2 and 1 × 1015 ions/cm2. The effect of irradiation on the material nanostructure was examined at a depth of 1 μm from the irradiated surface. The analysis of Cr radial concentration functions reveals that dense α‧-phase precipitates in the 200 h aged alloy become diffuse and thereby larger when subjected to irradiation. On the other hand, less Cr-enriched precipitates in the alloy aged for 50 h are less affected. The CreCr pair correlation function analysis shows that matrix inhomogeneity decreases under irradiation. Irradiation leads to a decrease in the number density of diffuse clusters, whereas in the case of well-developed precipitates it remains unchanged.
Holtman, Inge R; Raj, Divya D; Miller, Jeremy A.; Schaafsma, Wandert; Yin, Zhuoran; Brouwer, Nieske; Wes, Paul D; Möller, Thomas; Orre, Marie; Kamphuis, Willem; Hol, EM; Boddeke, Erik W G M; Eggen, Bart J L
2015-01-01
INTRODUCTION: Microglia are tissue macrophages of the central nervous system that monitor brain homeostasis and react upon neuronal damage and stress. Aging and neurodegeneration induce a hypersensitive, pro-inflammatory phenotype, referred to as primed microglia. To determine the gene expression si
I.R. Holtman; D.D. Raj; J.A. Miller; W. Schaafsma; Z. Yin; N. Brouwer; P.D. Wes; T. Möller; M. Orre; W. Kamphuis; E.M. Hol; E.W.G.M. Boddeke; B.J.L. Eggen
2015-01-01
INTRODUCTION: Microglia are tissue macrophages of the central nervous system that monitor brain homeostasis and react upon neuronal damage and stress. Aging and neurodegeneration induce a hypersensitive, pro-inflammatory phenotype, referred to as primed microglia. To determine the gene expression si
Previous work examining the effect of ageing on cotton fiber surface chemical and HVI properties, yarn processing performance, and yarn quality showed that cotton bales stored for extended periods exhibit significant changes in a number of these variables including primarily surface sugar content, H...
Physics with exotic probability theory
Youssef, Saul
2001-01-01
Probability theory can be modified in essentially one way while maintaining consistency with the basic Bayesian framework. This modification results in copies of standard probability theory for real, complex or quaternion probabilities. These copies, in turn, allow one to derive quantum theory while restoring standard probability theory in the classical limit. The argument leading to these three copies constrain physical theories in the same sense that Cox's original arguments constrain alter...
Quantum Foundations : Is Probability Ontological ?
Rosinger, Elemer E
2007-01-01
It is argued that the Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, founded ontologically on the concept of probability, may be questionable in view of the fact that within Probability Theory itself the ontological status of the concept of probability has always been, and is still under discussion.
Variables related to the progress of parturition and probability of stillbirth in swine
Zaleski, Halina M.; Hacker, Roger R.
1993-01-01
Sow and piglet variables related to probability of stillbirth and to viability score were analyzed in litters from 98 multiparous Yorkshire sows. Immediately after the birth of each piglet, viability was scored using Randall's method. Sow variables related to the probability of stillbirth were average birth weight of the litter (p = 0.0001), sow age (p = 0.001), sow condition score (p = 0.003), length of gestation (p = 0.005), and number of piglets in the litter (p = 0.01). Sow variables rela...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei-Chen Lee
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The current aging trends accompanying the increasing prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCCs and decreasing participation in physical activity (PA have swept the United States. In light of the magnitude of this phenomenon, this study seeks to identify the most common MCC combinations and their relationships with PA level. A cross-sectional study, Brazos Valley Health Assessment, was conducted between October 2009 and July 2010. All data analyses were performed by STATA 12.0. The overall sample which met the inclusion criteria is 2,603. Among people older than 45 years, chronic conditions of cardiovascular, endocrine, and musculoskeletal systems were the most prevalent. Participants with three chronic conditions were less likely to meet the PA standard than those with only two chronic conditions. Younger age, women, rural residence, and unsafe environments were related to the lower PA level. After adjusting for seven covariates, all MCCs combinations adversely affect the level of PA (, . People with MCCs were among the least active subgroups despite the health benefits of doing exercise. Given the well-documented benefits of physical activity for delaying the onset or progression of MCCs, public health efforts to enhance regular PA in middle-aged and older adults are recommended.
Greg W. Mitchell; Woodworth, Bradley K.; Taylor, Philip D.; Norris, D. Ryan
2015-01-01
Background Given that winds encountered on migration could theoretically double or half the energy expenditure of aerial migrants, there should be strong selection on behaviour in relation to wind conditions aloft. However, evidence suggests that juvenile songbirds are less choosy about wind conditions at departure relative to adults, potentially increasing energy expenditure during flight. To date, there has yet to be a direct comparison of flight efficiency between free-living adult and juv...
On differentiating the probability of error in multipopular feature selection
Peters, B. C.
1974-01-01
A method of linear feature selection for n dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of m populations is presented. Each population has a known apriori probability and is described by a known multivariate normal density function. Specifically we consider the problem of finding a k x n matrix B of rank k (k n) for which the transformed probability of misclassification is minimized. Providing that the transformed a posterior probabilities are distinct theoretical results are obtained which, for the case k = l, give rise to a numerically tractable formula for the derivative of the probability of misclassification. It is shown that for the two population problem this condition is also necessary. The dependence of the minimum probability of error on the a priori probabilities is investigated. The minimum probability of error satisfies a uniform Lipschitz condition with respect to the a priori probabilities.
Dehoux, A; Bouchelaghem, Fatiha; BERTHAUD, Y
2015-01-01
In this paper, we have gathered the conclusions of an experimental campaign dedicated to the microstructural characterization and the determination of the local elastic properties of various natural and artificial corrosion product layers. The results of micro-indentation testing and Raman spectroscopy coupled with a semi-quantitative analysis have been presented for the whole set of investigated materials, from early-age (2 weeks) corrosion products to 660 years-old massive corroded samples....
MOUSSODJI, Jeff; Kociniewski, Thierry; Khatir, Zoubir
2013-01-01
A new electro-thermal model of a semiconductor device has been carried-out in order to investigate electrical and thermal mappings of power devices during critical operations. This model allows evaluating the effect of chip metallization ageing on temperature distributions and current sharing between cells within an IGBT chip during short-circuits operations. One of the failure mechanisms in IGBT is due to the switch on of the npnp parasitic thyristor. This phenomenon so called Latch-up and o...
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Ott, Christian D
2014-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we derive the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, $P_{\\rm BH}(M_{\\rm ZAMS})$. We explore possible biases in the observed BH mass distribution and find that this sample is best suited for studying BH formation in stars with ZAMS masses in the range $12-...
Lee, Seung-Jun; Park, Sung-Ha
2013-01-01
Arterial ageing is characterized by age associated degeneration and sclerosis of the media layer of the large arteries. However, besides ageing, clinical conditions, which enhance oxidative stress and inflammation act to accelerate the degree of arterial ageing. In this review, we summarized the pathophysiology and contributing factors that accelerate arterial ageing. Among them, we focused on hypertension, the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and vascular inflammation which are modifiabl...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This work deals with the long term forecasting of the aging behaviour of epoxy-amine lattices used for the coating of radioactive wastes. In storage conditions, the oxygen of air, the radiations and the water are the three factors at the origin of the aging. The main goals have been to study the morphology changes during the aging and to model the oxidation phenomena. The transport properties allow to determine the oxygen diffusivities and solubilities. A wide range of poly-epoxide lattices has been studied, from the classical DGEBA/DDM classical lattice to the commercial coating matrix with contains both an important molar fraction of mono-epoxy and a plasticizer which lowers the vitreous transition temperature from 175 deg. C to 55 deg. C. The analysis of the diffusional parameters of these lattices shows that the solubility increases and the diffusivity decreases when the reticulation increases or when the lattice contains no plasticizer. The transport parameters necessary for the modeling laws have been determined for all lattices. The aging under thermo-activated air involves oxidation reactions which take place preferentially at the level of epoxy constituents and lead to the formation of carbonyl and amide polar oxygenated functions and to chain cleavage with the departure of phenol-type volatile products or higher mass compounds. Using a theoretical model, the hyperbolic-type oxide sites concentration profile has been precised and an important parameter, the thickness of the oxidized layer has been calculated. The radio-oxidation, performed in extreme conditions with respect to the real storage conditions, leads to the formation of polar functions without any significant degradation of lattices. The hygro-thermal aging is characterized, for the commercial matrix only, by the leaching possibility of various products initially present in the lattice and of hydrolysis products, and by the occurrence of osmotic pressure bags at the origin of cracks. This raises
Nass, Norbert; Weissenberg, Kristian; Somoza, Veronika; Ruhs, Stefanie; Silber, Rolf-Edgar; Simm, Andreas
2014-03-01
Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are stable end products of the Maillard reaction. Effects of food extracts are often initially analysed in cellular test systems and it is not clear how different cell culture conditions might influence the results. Therefore, we compared the effects of two models for AGE-rich food, bread crust and coffee extract (CE) on WI-38 human lung fibroblasts under different cell culture conditions (sub-confluent versus confluent cells, with and without serum). WI-38 cells responded to coffee and bread crust extract (BCE) with a rapid phosphorylation of PKB (AKT), p42/44 MAPK (ERK 1/2) and p38 MAPK, strongly depending on culture conditions. BCE resulted in increased cell numbers, whereas CE appeared to be cytotoxic. When cell numbers under all culture conditions and treatments were correlated with kinase phosphorylation, the relation between phospho-p38 MAPK and phospho-AKT represented a good, cell culture condition-independent predictor of cell survival. PMID:24111510
Probability workshop to be better in probability topic
Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed
2015-02-01
The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.
Bollen, Kenneth A.; Noble, Mark D.; Adair, Linda S.
2013-01-01
The fetal origin hypothesis emphasizes the life-long health impacts of prenatal conditions. Birth weight, birth length, and gestational age are indicators of the fetal environment. However, these variables often have missing data and are subject to random and systematic errors caused by delays in measurement, differences in measurement instruments, and human error. With data from the Cebu (Philippines) Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey, we use structural equation models (SEMs), to expl...
Effect of hot-attribute aged ginger tea on chinese medical pulse condition of healthy young humans.
Chao, Dan-Ping; Tyan, Chu-Chang; Chen, Jian-Jung; Hsieh, Ching-Liang; Sheen, Lee-Yan
2011-10-01
Young individuals typically have a dry-heat ( zào rè) constitution and feel overly stimulated. This study observes specialties on the right-bar ( yòu guān) section of the radial-arterial pulse of healthy young subjects, and investigates pulse variations induced by different attribute foods. Chinese medical doctors grouped thirty subjects into heat and non-heat constitutions. Each subject took water, aged ginger tea, and coconut water, well recognized as neutral, hot, and cold drinks, on different visits. The current study observed physiological signals induced by the samples using novel noninvasive sphygmography and a blood pressure monitor. As the baseline bigger percussion wave, dicrotic wave, and area in the sphygmogram of the non-heat constitution subjects, this work suggests that blood vessels of these subjects may be more relaxed than that of the heat constitution ones. Stroke volume increased and pulse pressure decreased in the non-heat constitution subjects after taking aged ginger tea, which may elevate arterial compliance corresponding to maintaining an estimated radial-arterial diameter in our study. However, the percussion wave widened and the valley increased in the heat constitution subjects after taking aged ginger tea. This corresponds to the markedly reduced radial-arterial diameter, indicating tighter blood vessels than the baseline status. Accordingly, this study confirms that selecting foods with attributes opposite to personal constitutions is important for reestablishing a healthy cold-heat balance within the human body. Moreover, novel noninvasive sphygmography may be a useful instrument to classify scientifically the heat personal constitution and the responses to different attribute foods. PMID:24716108
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
No significant difference was found in the retention of I-131 loaded as I2, by various impregnated activated carbons that had been aged in the containment exhaust air of a pressurized water reactor over a period of 12 months. In all the cases, the I-131 passing through deep beds of carbon was in a nonelemental form. It was concluded that a minimum retention of 99.99%, as required by new guidelines for certain accident filters, can be equally well achieved with various carbons in deep beds
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
Non-Gaussian Photon Probability Distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper investigates the axiom that the photon's probability distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The Airy disc empirical evidence shows that the best fit, if not exact, distribution is a modified Gamma mΓ distribution (whose parameters are α = r, βr/√(u)) in the plane orthogonal to the motion of the photon. This modified Gamma distribution is then used to reconstruct the probability distributions along the hypotenuse from the pinhole, arc from the pinhole, and a line parallel to photon motion. This reconstruction shows that the photon's probability distribution is not a Gaussian function. However, under certain conditions, the distribution can appear to be Normal, thereby accounting for the success of quantum mechanics. This modified Gamma distribution changes with the shape of objects around it and thus explains how the observer alters the observation. This property therefore places additional constraints to quantum entanglement experiments. This paper shows that photon interaction is a multi-phenomena effect consisting of the probability to interact Pi, the probabilistic function and the ability to interact Ai, the electromagnetic function. Splitting the probability function Pi from the electromagnetic function Ai enables the investigation of the photon behavior from a purely probabilistic Pi perspective. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis is proposed as a consistent method for handling the two different phenomena, the probability function Pi and the ability to interact Ai, thus redefining radiation shielding, stealth or cloaking, and invisibility as different effects of a single phenomenon Pi of the photon probability distribution. Sub wavelength photon behavior is successfully modeled as a multi-phenomena behavior. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis provides a good fit to Otoshi's (1972) microwave shielding, Schurig et al.(2006) microwave cloaking, and Oulton et al.(2008) sub wavelength confinement; thereby providing a strong case that
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Thomas A Terleph; S. Malaivijitnond; Reichard, U. H.
2016-01-01
Background White-handed gibbons (Hylobates lar) are small Asian apes known for living in stable territories and producing loud, elaborate vocalizations (songs), often in well-coordinated male/female duets. The female great call, the most conspicuous phrase of the repertoire, has been hypothesized to function in intra-sexual territorial defense. We therefore predicted that characteristics of the great call would correlate with a caller’s physical condition, and thus might honestly reflect reso...
Probabilities of multiple quantum teleportation
Woesler, Richard
2002-01-01
Using quantum teleportation a quantum state can be teleported with a certain probability. Here the probabilities for multiple teleportation are derived, i. e. for the case that a teleported quantum state is teleported again or even more than two times, for the two-dimensional case, e. g., for the two orthogonal direcations of the polarization of photons. It is shown that the probability for an exact teleportation, except for an irrelevant phase factor, is 25 %, i. e., surprisingly, this resul...
Probability and statistics: selected problems
Machado, J.A. Tenreiro; Pinto, Carla M. A.
2014-01-01
Probability and Statistics—Selected Problems is a unique book for senior undergraduate and graduate students to fast review basic materials in Probability and Statistics. Descriptive statistics are presented first, and probability is reviewed secondly. Discrete and continuous distributions are presented. Sample and estimation with hypothesis testing are presented in the last two chapters. The solutions for proposed excises are listed for readers to references.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Bhupendra Singh; Rajendra Yadav; B.P.Bhatt
2011-01-01
Dalbergia sissoo Roxb. is one of the promising multipurpose tree species of South Asia. Most of the plantations of D. sissoo from seeds are facing severe threats due to the die-back disease, which ultimately causes death of this potential tree-species within a few months.Vegetative propagation could avoid the die-back disease. Thirty mother trees of different age-groups of D. sissoo were selected for evaluating the rooting behaviour of branch cuttings from D. sissoo as influenced by auxins (1AA or IBA at 100, 200, 500 mg.L-1), ages of mother trees (10, 4 and 2 years old) and different environment conditions, i.e., different mediums (soil and sand) or light conditions (in shade and open condition). The results show that application of IAA and IBA induced more numbers of cuttings (collected from 10-year-old mother trees) to root compared to control. Branch cuttings of D. sissoo collected from 10-year-old mother trees and planted in soil bed in open conditions had 100.0％ of cuttings to root in IAA (100 mg.L-1) and IBA (200 mg.L-1) treatments. Both rooting medium (Soil and sand) influenced significantly (p＜0.05) on rooting response of branch cuttings. Soil medium was found to achieve maximum no. of branch cuttings to root, compared to sand medium.
Free Probability on a Direct Product of Noncommutative Probability Spaces
Cho, Ilwoo
2005-01-01
In this paper, we observevd the amalgamated free probability of direct product of noncommutative probability spaces. We defined the amalgamated R-transforms, amalgamated moment series and the amalgamated boxed convolution. They maks us to do the amalgamated R-transform calculus, like the scalar-valued case.
Quantum probability and quantum decision making
Yukalov, V I
2016-01-01
A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid for elementary events and for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.
Registration probability of alphas in cellulose nitrate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Registration 'thresholds' of alpha particles in cellulose nitrate plastic present a statistical behaviour. The effect depends on etching conditions. It is particularly large in strong etching conditions, in which registration is transposed to high energies: up to 7.7 MeV for the conditions and energies studied. 'Registration probability' expresses more adequately the effect of registration constraints. The study of registration probability indicates that the 'target theory' can describe the effect. The parameters of target theory, m (number of targets) and D0 (the equivalent of biological dose D37) were found to be: m = 5 and D0 = 3 x 107 erg cm-3. Dose distribution around the trajectory of alphas of various energies is estimated. It is also deduced that track development takes place when the required dose for registration is deposited at a distance r >= 20 A from particle trajectory. (author)
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The modelling of the mechanical behaviour of structural materials is increasingly based on microstructural parameters. Within this framework, homogenisation methods have the advantage of providing deductive methods which, starting from the properties and space distribution of each constituent, deduce the effective properties of the heterogeneous material. Nevertheless, many applications make still difficult the use of homogenisation methods. It is in particular the case of structural materials presenting elastic-viscoplastic behaviours and subjected to both non-monotone and ageing loadings. To progress on the treatment by homogenisation of these useful situations constitutes precisely the main idea of the various contributions presented in this work.For linear elasticity, new expressions for the computation of the Eshelby tensor are first of all established in order to improve the efficiency of homogenisation methods usually used. Always for linear behaviours but now viscoelastic, various approximations associated with the use of the theorem of correspondence are studied and compared. The equivalence of one of these approximations (the so-called 'collocation method') with an internal variables formulation of the effective behaviour is shown. This internal variables formulation leads to exact results in some situations and strongly simplifies the treatment of ageing linear viscoelastic behaviours. In the case of elastic-viscoplastic behaviours, is added to the previous difficulty (viscoelastic coupling) that of the treatment of nonlinear behaviour. Comparisons made between various families of estimates make it possible to determine the effects of the various approximations needed to deal with these nonlinearities. An improvement is also proposed and implemented in a particular case while the extension of this internal variable formulation to nonlinear behaviours is discussed. Finally, full-field computations of microstructures are also tackled by considering the
Intermediate Probability Theory for Biomedical Engineers
Enderle, John
2006-01-01
This is the second in a series of three short books on probability theory and random processes for biomedical engineers. This volume focuses on expectation, standard deviation, moments, and the characteristic function. In addition, conditional expectation, conditional moments and the conditional characteristic function are also discussed. Jointly distributed random variables are described, along with joint expectation, joint moments, and the joint characteristic function. Convolution is also developed. A considerable effort has been made to develop the theory in a logical manner--developing sp
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte;
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to...
Probability theory and its models
Humphreys, Paul
2008-01-01
This paper argues for the status of formal probability theory as a mathematical, rather than a scientific, theory. David Freedman and Philip Stark's concept of model based probabilities is examined and is used as a bridge between the formal theory and applications.
Decision analysis with approximate probabilities
Whalen, Thomas
1992-01-01
This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.
Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LUO Jian-hua
2008-01-01
In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2005-01-01
People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.
Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.
2007-01-01
Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.
Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Musick, R.
1996-03-01
Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rote learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neural networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohd Khalid
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Background: The aims of this study have been elaborated below: (1 to enumerate the common causes of acute abdominal emergencies by ultrasonography in paediatric patients; (2 to establish the diagnostic efficacy of ultrasonography in evaluation of acute abdominal conditions in children and to illustrate the associated ultrasonographic findings; (3 and, to discuss the role of ultrasonography in guiding the mode of intervention in these cases. Patients and Methods: This prospective study of ultrasonographic examination in 146 paediatric patients presenting with acute onset abdominal pain at the emergency/paediatric outpatient department section of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College & Hospital, Aligarh, between June 2006 and December 2007, using 3.75 MHz and 8 MHz transducers of the ADARA (Siemens machine. Results : Common causes of acute abdominal emergencies in pediatric patients as noted on ultrasonography included nonspecific pain (28%, abdominal abscess (21%, acute appendicitis (7% and intussusception (7%. Ultrasonography was diagnostic in 45.2% cases and supportive in 12.3% of the cases. As for as the final outcome, ultrasonography prevented surgery in almost 20% cases and laparotomy was avoided in 7% of the patients as ultrasound guided interventions in the form of abscess aspiration were carried out. Conclusion: Ultrasonography evaluation of children with acute abdominal pain, helps in making significant changes in the management plan of the patients, and also reveals various clinically unsuspected diseases.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Some of the underground reinforced-concrete waste-storage tanks at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site have been exposed to high temperatures (greater than 200 degrees F) generated by radioactive liquid wastes. Establishment of the in situ conditions of these tanks is the first step toward their remediation. In this environment concrete damage can result in the form of mechanical property degradation, increased creep response, and cracking from thermal expansion and load redistribution. Regression analyses of data from tests on Hanford-concrete mix designs conducted in the mid-1970's provided mechanical property correlations that are a function of time at temperature. Creep compliance functions were developed on the bases of literature reviews and limited Hanford Site test data. The property-degradation correlations are thermal-history dependent because of the irreversible nature of the degradation processes. In addition, tests were conducted to determine the thermal expansion coefficient of the Hanford concrete. This paper discusses the implementation of these correlations into a nonlinear concrete constitutive subroutine that is linked to a general-purpose finite- element computer code. The methodology used to treat variable temperature histories is illustrated. A case study of the Hanford Site's buried, high-heat, single-shell, waste storage tank 241-C-106 illustrates the degradation history predicted over its service life. In addition, this paper provides a statistically based discussion of the effects of potential batch-to-batch variation of concrete strength. It addresses material property uncertainties, including the thermal-expansion coefficient
Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Horgan, R P
2012-01-31
Being born small for gestational age (SGA) confers significantly increased risks of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Accumulating evidence suggests that an SGA fetus results from a poorly perfused and abnormally developed placenta. Some of the placental features seen in SGA, such as abnormal cell turnover and impaired nutrient transport, can be reproduced by culture of placental explants in hypoxic conditions. Metabolic footprinting offers a hypothesis-generating strategy to investigate factors absorbed by and released from this tissue in vitro. Previously, metabolic footprinting of the conditioned culture media has identified differences in placental explants cultured under normoxic and hypoxic conditions and between normal pregnancies and those complicated by pre-eclampsia. In this study we aimed to examine the differences in the metabolic footprint of placental villous explants cultured at different oxygen (O(2)) tensions between women who deliver an SGA baby (n = 9) and those from normal controls (n = 8). Placental villous explants from cases and controls were cultured for 96 h in 1% (hypoxic), 6% (normoxic) and 20% (hyperoxic) O(2). Metabolic footprints were analysed by Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled to an electrospray hybrid LTQ-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS). 574 metabolite features showed significant difference between SGA and normal at one or more of the oxygen tensions. SGA explant media cultured under hypoxic conditions was observed, on a univariate level, to exhibit the same metabolic signature as controls cultured under normoxic conditions in 49% of the metabolites of interest, suggesting that SGA tissue is acclimatised to hypoxic conditions in vivo. No such behaviour was observed under hyperoxic culture conditions. Glycerophospholipid and tryptophan metabolism were highlighted as areas of particular interest.
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, Jason [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernstein, Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); White, II, Gregory Von [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Glover, Steven F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pena, Gary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Kenneth Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zutavern, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gelbard, Fred [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-03-01
In a submerged environment, power cables may experience accelerated insulation degradation due to water - related aging mechanisms . Direct contact with water or moisture intrusion in the cable insulation s ystem has been identified in the literature as a significant aging stressor that can affect performance and lifetime of electric cables . Progressive reduction of the dielectric strength is commonly a result of water treeing which involves the development of permanent hydrophilic structures in the insulation coinciding with the absorption of water into the cable . Water treeing is a phenomenon in which dendritic microvoids are formed in electric cable insulation due to electrochemic al reactions , electromechanical forces , and diffusion of contaminants over time . These reactions are caused by the combined effect s of water presence and high electrical stress es in the material . Water tree growth follow s a tree - like branching pattern , i ncreasing in volume and length over time . Although these cables can be "dried out," water tree degradation , specifically the growth of hydrophilic regions, is believed to be permanent and typically worsens over time. Based on established research , water treeing or water induced damage can occur in a variety of electric cables including XLPE, TR - XLPE and other insulating materials, such as EPR and butyl rubber . Once water trees or water induced damage form, the dielectric strength of an insulation materia l will decrease gradually with time as the water trees grow in length, which could eventually result in failure of the insulating material . Under wet conditions or i n submerged environments , several environmental and operational parameters can influence w ater tree initiation and affect water tree growth . These parameters include voltage cycling, field frequency, temperature, ion concentration and chemistry, type of insula tion material , and the characteristics of its defects. In this effort, a review of academic
Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings
Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah
2015-12-01
The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.
Transition choice probabilities and welfare in ARUM's
de Palma, André; Kilani, Karim
2009-01-01
We study the descriptive and the normative consequences of price and/or other attributes changes in additive random utility models. We first derive expressions for the transition choice probabilities associated to these changes. A closed-form formula is obtained for the logit. We then use these expressions to compute the cumulative distribution functions of the compensating variation conditional on ex-ante and/or ex-post choices. The unconditional distribution is also provided. The conditiona...
Quantile Probability and Statistical Data Modeling
Parzen, Emanuel
2004-01-01
Quantile and conditional quantile statistical thinking, as I have innovated it in my research since 1976, is outlined in this comprehensive survey and introductory course in quantile data analysis. We propose that a unification of the theory and practice of statistical methods of data modeling may be possible by a quantile perspective. Our broad range of topics of univariate and bivariate probability and statistics are best summarized by the key words. Two fascinating practical examples are g...
Transition probabilities of Br II
Bengtson, R. D.; Miller, M. H.
1976-01-01
Absolute transition probabilities of the three most prominent visible Br II lines are measured in emission. Results compare well with Coulomb approximations and with line strengths extrapolated from trends in homologous atoms.
Induction, of and by Probability
Rendell, Larry
2013-01-01
This paper examines some methods and ideas underlying the author's successful probabilistic learning systems(PLS), which have proven uniquely effective and efficient in generalization learning or induction. While the emerging principles are generally applicable, this paper illustrates them in heuristic search, which demands noise management and incremental learning. In our approach, both task performance and learning are guided by probability. Probabilities are incrementally normalized and re...
Trajectory probability hypothesis density filter
García-Fernández, Ángel F.; Svensson, Lennart
2016-01-01
This paper presents the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter for sets of trajectories. The resulting filter, which is referred to as trajectory probability density filter (TPHD), is capable of estimating trajectories in a principled way without requiring to evaluate all measurement-to-target association hypotheses. As the PHD filter, the TPHD filter is based on recursively obtaining the best Poisson approximation to the multitrajectory filtering density in the sense of minimising the K...
Hf Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J. E.; Hartog, E.A. den; Labby, Z. E.; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J.; Ivans, I. I.
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements, accurate to about +/- 5 percent, are reported for 41 odd-parity levels of Hf II. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 150 lines of Hf II. Approximately half of these new transition probabilities overlap with recent independent measurements using a similar approach. The two sets of measurements are found to be in good agreement...
Gd Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Hartog, E.A. den; Lawler, J. E.; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J.
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 49 even-parity and 14 odd-parity levels of Gd II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 611 lines of Gd II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Gd II transition probabilities and the first using a high performance Fourier transform spectrometer. This improved data set has be...
Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J. E.; Hartog, E.A. den; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J.
2005-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundanc...
Gaussian Probabilities and Expectation Propagation
Cunningham, John P.; Hennig, Philipp; Lacoste-Julien, Simon
2011-01-01
While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate integration method for this problem. For rectangular integration regions, the approximation is highly accurate. We also extend the derivations to the more general case of polyhedral integration regions. However, we find that in this polyhedral case, EP's answer...
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
Compliance with endogenous audit probabilities
Konrad, Kai A.; Lohse, Tim; Qari, Salmai
2015-01-01
This paper studies the effect of endogenous audit probabilities on reporting behavior in a face-to-face compliance situation such as at customs. In an experimental setting in which underreporting has a higher expected payoff than truthful reporting we find an increase in compliance of about 80% if subjects have reason to believe that their behavior towards an officer influences their endogenous audit probability. Higher compliance is driven by considerations about how own appearance and perfo...
Novel Bounds on Marginal Probabilities
Mooij, Joris M.; Kappen, Hilbert J
2008-01-01
We derive two related novel bounds on single-variable marginal probability distributions in factor graphs with discrete variables. The first method propagates bounds over a subtree of the factor graph rooted in the variable, and the second method propagates bounds over the self-avoiding walk tree starting at the variable. By construction, both methods not only bound the exact marginal probability distribution of a variable, but also its approximate Belief Propagation marginal (``belief''). Th...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mar Comas
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Host traits can significantly influence patterns of infection and disease. Here, we studied the helminths parasitizing the Italian edible frog Pelophylax kl. hispanicus, giving special attention to the relationship between parasites and host traits such as sex, snout vent length, weight and body condition. The helminth community was composed of seven species: three trematode species (Diplodiscus subclavatus, Gorgodera cygnoides, Pleurogenes claviger, three nematode species (Icosiella neglecta, Oswaldocruzia filiformis, Rhabdias sp. and one acanthocephalan species (Pomphorhychus laevis. We found that prevalence was positively correlated with snout-vent length and weight, but did not differ with body condition or sex. We found that prevalence and mean species richness increased with age. Our results show that abundance of Icosiella neglecta was positively correlated with higher values for host body condition. In fact, we found that high prevalence and mean species richness do not necessarily imply poorer body condition in the parasitized host. In conclusion, our results show that the helminth community in this taxon has great diversity, and this host-parasite system seems to be evolved to low levels of virulence, helminths maintaining a commensal relationship with this frog.
Maw Maw Win; Enami, Masaki; Kato, Takenori
2016-03-01
The high temperature (T)/pressure (P) regional Mogok metamorphic belt is situated in central Myanmar, and is mainly composed of pelitic gneisses, amphibolites, marbles, and calc-silicate rocks. The garnet-biotite-plagioclase-sillimanite-quartz assemblage and its partial system suggest equilibrium P/T conditions of 0.6-1.0 GPa/780-850 °C for the peak metamorphic stage, and 0.3-0.5 GPa/600-680 °C for the exhumation and hydration stage. Monazite grains show complex compositional zoning consisting of three segments-I, II, and III. Taking into consideration the monazite zoning and relative misfit curves, the calculated chemical Th-U-total Pb isochron method (CHIME) monazite age data (284 spot analyses) indicated four age components: 49.3 ± 2.6-49.9 ± 7.9, 37.8 ± 1.0-38.1 ± 1.7, 28.0 ± 0.8-28.8 ± 1.6, and 23.7 ± 1.3 Ma (2σ level). The ages of the Late Eocene and Late Oligocene epochs were interpreted as the peak metamorphic stage of upper-amphibolite and/or granulite facies and the postdated hydration stage, respectively.
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Arp, J Marit; Ter Horst, Judith P; Loi, Manila; den Blaauwen, Jan; Bangert, Eline; Fernández, Guillén; Joëls, Marian; Oitzl, Melly S; Krugers, Harm J
2016-09-01
Early life adversity can have long-lasting impact on learning and memory processes and increase the risk to develop stress-related psychopathologies later in life. In this study we investigated (i) how chronic early life stress (ELS) - elicited by limited nesting and bedding material from postnatal day 2 to 9 - affects conditioned fear in adult mice and (ii) whether these effects can be prevented by blocking glucocorticoid receptors (GRs) at adolescent age. In adult male and female mice, ELS did not affect freezing behavior to the first tone 24h after training in an auditory fear-conditioning paradigm. Exposure to repeated tones 24h after training also resulted in comparable freezing behavior in ELS and control mice, both in males and females. However, male (but not female) ELS compared to control mice showed significantly more freezing behavior between the tone-exposures, i.e. during the cue-off periods. Intraperitoneal administration of the GR antagonist RU38486 during adolescence (on postnatal days 28-30) fully prevented enhanced freezing behavior during the cue-off period in adult ELS males. Western blot analysis revealed no effects of ELS on hippocampal expression of glucocorticoid receptors, neither at postnatal day 28 nor at adult age, when mice were behaviorally tested. We conclude that ELS enhances freezing behavior in adult mice in a potentially safe context after cue-exposure, which can be normalized by brief blockade of glucocorticoid receptors during the critical developmental window of adolescence. PMID:27246249
Probability and logical structure of statistical theories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A characterization of statistical theories is given which incorporates both classical and quantum mechanics. It is shown that each statistical theory induces an associated logic and joint probability structure, and simple conditions are given for the structure to be of a classical or quantum type. This provides an alternative for the quantum logic approach to axiomatic quantum mechanics. The Bell inequalities may be derived for those statistical theories that have a classical structure and satisfy a locality condition weaker than factorizability. The relation of these inequalities to the issue of hidden variable theories for quantum mechanics is discussed and clarified
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
Joint probability distributions for projection probabilities of random orthonormal states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The quantum chaos conjecture applied to a finite dimensional quantum system implies that such a system has eigenstates that show similar statistical properties as the column vectors of random orthogonal or unitary matrices. Here, we consider the different probabilities for obtaining a specific outcome in a projective measurement, provided the system is in one of its eigenstates. We then give analytic expressions for the joint probability density for these probabilities, with respect to the ensemble of random matrices. In the case of the unitary group, our results can be applied, also, to the phenomenon of universal conductance fluctuations, where the same mathematical quantities describe partial conductances in a two-terminal mesoscopic scattering problem with a finite number of modes in each terminal. (paper)
Joint probability distributions for projection probabilities of random orthonormal states
Alonso, L.; Gorin, T.
2016-04-01
The quantum chaos conjecture applied to a finite dimensional quantum system implies that such a system has eigenstates that show similar statistical properties as the column vectors of random orthogonal or unitary matrices. Here, we consider the different probabilities for obtaining a specific outcome in a projective measurement, provided the system is in one of its eigenstates. We then give analytic expressions for the joint probability density for these probabilities, with respect to the ensemble of random matrices. In the case of the unitary group, our results can be applied, also, to the phenomenon of universal conductance fluctuations, where the same mathematical quantities describe partial conductances in a two-terminal mesoscopic scattering problem with a finite number of modes in each terminal.
Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Lihong
2005-01-01
Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.
Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance
Rosenkrantz, Walter A
2008-01-01
Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye
Probability distributions of landslide volumes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. T. Brunetti
2009-03-01
Full Text Available We examine 19 datasets with measurements of landslide volume, V_{L}, for sub-aerial, submarine, and extraterrestrial mass movements. Individual datasets include from 17 to 1019 landslides of different types, including rock fall, rock slide, rock avalanche, soil slide, slide, and debris flow, with individual landslide volumes ranging over 10^{−4} m^{3}≤V_{L}≤10^{13} m^{3}. We determine the probability density of landslide volumes, p(V_{L}, using kernel density estimation. Each landslide dataset exhibits heavy tailed (self-similar behaviour for their frequency-size distributions, p(V_{L} as a function of V_{L}, for failures exceeding different threshold volumes, V_{L}*, for each dataset. These non-cumulative heavy-tailed distributions for each dataset are negative power-laws, with exponents 1.0≤β≤1.9, and averaging β≈1.3. The scaling behaviour of V_{L} for the ensemble of the 19 datasets is over 17 orders of magnitude, and is independent of lithological characteristics, morphological settings, triggering mechanisms, length of period and extent of the area covered by the datasets, presence or lack of water in the failed materials, and magnitude of gravitational fields. We argue that the statistics of landslide volume is conditioned primarily on the geometrical properties of the slope or rock mass where failures occur. Differences in the values of the scaling exponents reflect the primary landslide types, with rock falls exhibiting a smaller scaling exponent (1.1≤β≤1.4 than slides and soil slides (1.5≤β≤1.9. We argue that the difference is a consequence of the disparity in the mechanics of rock falls and slides.
Probable age of Autolycus and calibration of lunar stratigraphy
Ryder, G.; Bogard, D.; Garrison, D.
1991-01-01
Ar-39 - Ar-40 analyses of three petrographically distinct, shocked Apollo 15 KREEP (i.e., high K, rare earth element, P, and other trace element contents) basalt samples demonstrate that a major impact event affected all three samples at about 2.1 Ga. The Copernican System craters Aristillus and Autolycus are to the north. Autolycus, the older of the two, is in a particularly appropriate terrain and is the most likely source of the 2.1 Ga heating and delivery event. With this calibration point, and if Autolycus really is a Copernican crater, the Copernican System lasted twice as long as has previously been suggested. Furthermore, the moon was not subjected to a constant cratering rate over the past 3 billion years; the average rate in the preceding Eratosthenian must have been twice that in the Copernican.
Probability on real Lie algebras
Franz, Uwe
2016-01-01
This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.
Approximation methods in probability theory
Čekanavičius, Vydas
2016-01-01
This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Born Rule and Noncontextual Probability
Logiurato, Fabrizio
2012-01-01
The probabilistic rule that links the formalism of Quantum Mechanics (QM) to the real world was stated by Born in 1926. Since then, there were many attempts to derive the Born postulate as a theorem, Gleason's one being the most prominent. The Gleason derivation, however, is generally considered as rather intricate and its physical meaning, in particular in relation with the noncontextuality of probability (NP), is not quite evident. More recently, we are witnessing a revival of interest on possible demonstrations of the Born rule, like Zurek's and Deutsch's based on the decoherence and on the theory of decisions, respectively. Despite an ongoing debate about the presence of hidden assumptions and circular reasonings, these have the merit of prompting more physically oriented approaches to the problem. Here we suggest a new proof of the Born rule based on the noncontextuality of probability. Within the theorem we also demonstrate the continuity of probability with respect to the amplitudes, which has been sug...
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fit...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
Fusion Probability in Dinuclear System
Hong, Juhee
2015-01-01
Fusion can be described by the time evolution of a dinuclear system with two degrees of freedom, the relative motion and transfer of nucleons. In the presence of the coupling between two collective modes, we solve the Fokker-Planck equation in a locally harmonic approximation. The potential of a dinuclear system has the quasifission barrier and the inner fusion barrier, and the escape rates can be calculated by the Kramers' model. To estimate the fusion probability, we calculate the quasifission rate and the fusion rate. We investigate the coupling effects on the fusion probability and the cross section of evaporation residue.
Interference of probabilities in dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zak, Michail, E-mail: michail.zak@gmail.com [Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)
2014-08-15
A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kamler J
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt. Liebl. is one of the most important commercial species cultivated at low altitudes in the Czech Republic, and over-aged coppices are a significant part of oak stands in the region. In order to secure a high-valuable timber production (e.g., through conversion of such stands into coppices-with-standards, knowledge of the potential and limits of generative regeneration is essential. This study was conducted in three oak-dominated over-aged coppice stands in different stages of conversion into coppices-with-standards and characterized by different basal area (BA, from 9.3 to 14.1 m2 ha-1 and relative diffuse radiation (ISF, from 12.1 to 35.5%. The study stands were compared with respect to seed predation following acorn fall and oak regeneration parameters. At the time of their fall the acorns represented a sought-after source of food for large mammals (particularly wild boar. At the end of acorn fall, 13-67% acorns were lost due to animal predation. A control evaluation conducted the following spring revealed a decrease of 92-97% in fallen acorns. Despite the major animal impact, a high reserve of acorns and saplings remained in the stands (4 600-29 000 acorns and 66 000-310 000 saplings per ha. With increasing light intensity the oak regeneration density decreased, while the height and age variability of oak regeneration increased. Although saplings were capable of surviving several years under unfavorable light conditions (even below 12% ISF, they require a minimum of 20% ISF (i.e., BA < 16 m2 ha-1 to achieve sustainable height increment. Based on our results, for conversion of such stands into coppices-with-standards we recommend a maximum of 200 reserved trees (BA = 16 m2 ha-1 to achieve successful height growth of the understorey.
Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component
Estimation in Surveys Using Conditional Inclusion Probabilities: Simple Random Sampling
Tillé, Yves
2016-01-01
Dans les enquêtes par sondage, une information auxiliaire sur l'ensemble de la population est souvent disponible. Le but de cet article est de développer une méthode qui permet de prendre en compte cette information auxiliaire à l'étape de l'estimation au moyen d'un ajustement du biais conditionnel. L'idée de base est de tenter de construire un estimateur sans biais conditionnel. Quatre estimateurs ayant un faible biais conditionnel sont proposés. On montre ensuite que beaucoup d'estimateurs ...
Jakubas, Dariusz; Wojczulanis-Jakubas, Katarzyna
2010-05-01
The migration strategies of birds may vary strongly between species and also between age and/or sex groups. We studied the autumn migration and body condition of molecularly sexed Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus and Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus (211 and 208 ind., respectively) at a stopover site on Lake Druzno, Northern Poland, in 2008. Immature male Reed Warblers were caught significantly later than females (median dates 9 days later), but in the Sedge Warbler, both sexes of immatures migrated at about the same time. Adult males and females of both species did not differ in their time of migration. Adult and immature males of both species were larger (wing length and body mass) than females. In both species, fat reserves were similar in both sexes of both age classes. Adults of both sexes of Reed and Sedge Warbler were generally caught earlier than immatures. In both species, the body mass and fat reserves of immatures were generally less than in adults. The autumn protogyny of immature Reed Warblers may allow smaller females to limit competition with bigger males during migration and at the wintering grounds. In the Sedge Warbler, which tends to match its migration to peak of occurrence of superabundant food at stopover sites, both sexes gain an advantage from migrating at the same time. Since part of the measured wing length variation in both species was explained by sex differences, temporal trends in wing length recorded at stopover sites should be interpreted with caution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Al Allam A. M.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the permanent deformation and aging conditions of BatuPahat soft clay–modified asphalt mixture, also called BatuPahat soft clay (BPSC particles; these particles are used in powder form as an additive to hot-mix asphalt mixture. In this experiment, five percentage compositions of BPSC (0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8% by weight of bitumen were used. A novel design was established to modify the hot-mix asphalt by using the Superpave method for each additive ratio. Several laboratory tests evaluating different properties, such as indirect tensile strength, resilient stiffness modulus, and dynamic creep, was conducted to assess the performance of the samples mixed through the Superpave method. In the resilient modulus test, fatigue and rutting resistance were reduced by the BPSC particles. The added BPSC particles increased the indirect tensile strength. Among the mixtures, 4% BPSC particles yielded the highest performance. In the dynamic creep test, 4% BPSC particles added to the unaged and short-term aged specimens also showed the highest performance. Based on these results, our conclusion is that the BPSC particles can alleviate the permanent deformation (rutting of roads.
Pollock on probability in epistemology
Fitelson, Branden
2010-01-01
In Thinking and Acting John Pollock offers some criticisms of Bayesian epistemology, and he defends an alternative understanding of the role of probability in epistemology. Here, I defend the Bayesian against some of Pollock's criticisms, and I discuss a potential problem for Pollock's alternative account.
Transition probability and preferential gauge
Chen, C.Y.
1999-01-01
This paper is concerned with whether or not the preferential gauge can ensure the uniqueness and correctness of results obtained from the standard time-dependent perturbation theory, in which the transition probability is formulated in terms of matrix elements of Hamiltonian.
Quantum correlations; quantum probability approach
Majewski, W A
2014-01-01
This survey gives a comprehensive account of quantum correlations understood as a phenomenon stemming from the rules of quantization. Centered on quantum probability it describes the physical concepts related to correlations (both classical and quantum), mathematical structures, and their consequences. These include the canonical form of classical correlation functionals, general definitions of separable (entangled) states, definition and analysis of quantumness of correlations, description o...
Diverse Consequences of Algorithmic Probability
Özkural, Eray
2011-01-01
We reminisce and discuss applications of algorithmic probability to a wide range of problems in artificial intelligence, philosophy and technological society. We propose that Solomonoff has effectively axiomatized the field of artificial intelligence, therefore establishing it as a rigorous scientific discipline. We also relate to our own work in incremental machine learning and philosophy of complexity.
Asbestos and Probable Microscopic Polyangiitis
George S Rashed Philteos; Kelly Coverett; Rajni Chibbar; Ward, Heather A; Cockcroft, Donald W
2004-01-01
Several inorganic dust lung diseases (pneumoconioses) are associated with autoimmune diseases. Although autoimmune serological abnormalities are common in asbestosis, clinical autoimmune/collagen vascular diseases are not commonly reported. A case of pulmonary asbestosis complicated by perinuclear-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (myeloperoxidase) positive probable microscopic polyangiitis (glomerulonephritis, pericarditis, alveolitis, multineuritis multiplex) is described and the possible...
Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kerstin Andersson
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The problem addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts of guessing a word of a certain length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations to a natural language are considered. The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses. Several kinds of approximations are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions. For many probability distributions, the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion of guesses needed on average compared to the total number decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics
Field, Mike
2012-01-01
It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…
Fuzzy Markov chains: uncertain probabilities
James J. Buckley; Eslami, Esfandiar
2002-01-01
We consider finite Markov chains where there are uncertainties in some of the transition probabilities. These uncertainties are modeled by fuzzy numbers. Using a restricted fuzzy matrix multiplication we investigate the properties of regular, and absorbing, fuzzy Markov chains and show that the basic properties of these classical Markov chains generalize to fuzzy Markov chains.
Probability representations of fuzzy systems
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Hongxing
2006-01-01
In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.
A Novel Approach to Probability
Kafri, Oded
2016-01-01
When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...
Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.
1999-01-01
Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.
Zell, Patrick; Beckmann, Seija; Stinnesbeck, Wolfgang
2014-12-01
A 1.5 m thick coquinite discovered in the Upper Jurassic La Casita Formation of the Sierra El JabalÃ near Gomez Farías, Coahuila, northeastern Mexico qualifies as a concentration Lagerstâtte owing to its richness in marine vertebrates. Ichthyosaurs, pliosaurs and crocodilians were described to some detail, but other taxa remained unstudied and the precise biostratigraphical age, as well as paleoecological conditions that led to the formation of the fossil deposit, are not known in detail. Here we describe ammonites, aptychi, bivalves and radiolarians, which allow for a stratigraphic assignation of the deposit to the uppermost Kimmeridgian Beckeri Zone. The unit under consideration accumulated in a hemipelagic mud bottom environment during a period of time characterized by low oxygen conditions, while a short term benthic colonization phase near the top of the coquinite corresponds to increased oxygen availability. A combination of upwelling, bottom currents, winnowing, offshore winds, storm events, circulatory nutrient traps, low oxygenated bottom waters, and a transgressional regime with reduced net sedimentation was crucial factors for the subsequent concentration of fossils, as well as for marine phosphate generation and phosphorus migration.
Probability of Occurrence of Soil Disturbances during Timber Harvesting
2008-01-01
This paper deals with the probability of occurrence of soil disturbance during timber harvesting operations. Studies were carried out in southern Poland in 26 stands differing in terrain, skidding method, stand age, amount of timber harvested, forest site type, stocking, and soil type. In each stand the occurrence of the following forms of disturbances was measured: soil surface disturbance, soil cover tearing off and soil compaction. Logistic regression models describing the probability of o...
Yajima, Masako; Kimura, Shunsuke; Karaki, Shinichiro; Nio-Kobayashi, Junko; Tsuruta, Takeshi; Kuwahara, Atsukazu; Yajima, Takaji; Iwanaga, Toshihiko
2016-04-01
Intestinal epithelial cells sense short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) to secrete non-neuronal acetylcholine (ACh). However, the roles of luminalSCFAs and epithelialACh under normal and pathological conditions remain unknown. We examined ileal contractile responses toSCFAs at different ages and their mucosal cholinergic alterations under inflammatory conditions. Ileal contractile responses toSCFAs in 1-day-old pups to 7-week-old mice were compared using an isotonic transducer, and responses to an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) were analyzed in 7-week-old mice. ThemRNAexpression levels of aSCFAactivate free fatty acid receptor, acetylcholinesterase (AChE), choline acetyltransferase (Chat), and choline transporter-like protein 4 (CTL4) were measured using real-time quantitativeRT-PCRAChE was analyzed by histochemical and optical enzymatic assays. Atropine-sensitive ileal contractile responses toSCFAs occurred in all 1-day-old pups, but were frequently desensitized after the weaning period. These contractile responses were not inhibited by tetrodotoxin and did not appear when the mucosal layer had been scraped off. Contractile desensitization in 7-week-old mice was abolished in the presence of theAChE inhibitor, eserine, which was consistent with increasedAChE activity after weaning. Ileal contractions toSCFAs in adult mice were restored byLPS, which significantly increased the epithelialmRNAexpression of Chat andCTL4. Atropine-sensitive ileal contractile responses toSCFAs constitutively occur in the newborn period, and are desensitized during developmental stages following the up-regulated expression ofAChE in the villous mucosa, but are restored under inflammatory conditions possibly via the release of epithelialACh. PMID:27053293
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Denham, M.; Millings, M.
2012-08-28
This document provides information specific to H-Area waste tanks that enables a flow and transport model with limited chemical capabilities to account for varying waste release from the tanks through time. The basis for varying waste release is solubilities of radionuclides that change as pore fluids passing through the waste change in composition. Pore fluid compositions in various stages were generated by simulations of tank grout degradation. The first part of the document describes simulations of the degradation of the reducing grout in post-closure tanks. These simulations assume flow is predominantly through a water saturated porous medium. The infiltrating fluid that reacts with the grout is assumed to be fluid that has passed through the closure cap and into the tank. The results are three stages of degradation referred to as Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. A reaction path model was used so that the transitions between each stage are noted by numbers of pore volumes of infiltrating fluid reacted. The number of pore volumes to each transition can then be converted to time within a flow and transport model. The bottoms of some tanks in H-Area are below the water table requiring a different conceptual model for grout degradation. For these simulations the reacting fluid was assumed to be 10% infiltrate through the closure cap and 90% groundwater. These simulations produce an additional four pore fluid compositions referred to as Conditions A through D and were intended to simulate varying degrees of groundwater influence. The most probable degradation path for the submerged tanks is Condition C to Condition D to Oxidized Region III and eventually to Condition A. Solubilities for Condition A are estimated in the text for use in sensitivity analyses if needed. However, the grout degradation simulations did not include sufficient pore volumes of infiltrating fluid for the grout to evolve to Condition A. Solubility controls for use
Probability as a Physical Motive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Martin
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (Ã¢Â€ÂœMEPÃ¢Â€Â to the information-theoreticalÃ¢Â€ÂœMaxEntÃ¢Â€Â principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand Ã¢Â€Âœthe adjacentpossibleÃ¢Â€Â as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.
Probability, Information and Statistical Physics
Kuzemsky, A. L.
2016-03-01
In this short survey review we discuss foundational issues of the probabilistic approach to information theory and statistical mechanics from a unified standpoint. Emphasis is on the inter-relations between theories. The basic aim is tutorial, i.e. to carry out a basic introduction to the analysis and applications of probabilistic concepts to the description of various aspects of complexity and stochasticity. We consider probability as a foundational concept in statistical mechanics and review selected advances in the theoretical understanding of interrelation of the probability, information and statistical description with regard to basic notions of statistical mechanics of complex systems. It includes also a synthesis of past and present researches and a survey of methodology. The purpose of this terse overview is to discuss and partially describe those probabilistic methods and approaches that are used in statistical mechanics with the purpose of making these ideas easier to understanding and to apply.
Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2005-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundance, log epsilon = 1.00 +/- 0.03, from 26 lines. The spectra of three very metal-poor, neutron-capture-rich stars also have been analyzed, employing between 55 and 72 Sm II lines per star. The abundance ratios of Sm relative to other rare earth elements in these stars are in agreement, and are consistent with ratios expected from rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis (the r-process).
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
The probability of extraterrestrial life
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Since beginning of times, human beings need to live in the company of other humans, beings developing what we now know as human societies. According to this idea there has been speculation, specially in the present century, about the possibility that human society has company of the other thinking creatures living in other planets somewhere in our galaxy. In this talk we will only use reliable data from scientific observers in order to establish a probability. We will explain the analysis on the physico-chemical principles which allow the evolution of organic molecules in our planet and establish these as the forerunners of life in our planet. On the other hand, the physical process governing stars, their characteristics and their effects on planets will also be explained as well as the amount of energy that a planet receives, its mass, atmosphere and kind of orbit. Finally, considering all this information, a probability of life from outer space will be given. (Author)
Classical Probability and Quantum Outcomes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James D. Malley
2014-05-01
Full Text Available There is a contact problem between classical probability and quantum outcomes. Thus, a standard result from classical probability on the existence of joint distributions ultimately implies that all quantum observables must commute. An essential task here is a closer identification of this conflict based on deriving commutativity from the weakest possible assumptions, and showing that stronger assumptions in some of the existing no-go proofs are unnecessary. An example of an unnecessary assumption in such proofs is an entangled system involving nonlocal observables. Another example involves the Kochen-Specker hidden variable model, features of which are also not needed to derive commutativity. A diagram is provided by which user-selected projectors can be easily assembled into many new, graphical no-go proofs.
Large deviations and idempotent probability
Puhalskii, Anatolii
2001-01-01
In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...
Relative transition probabilities of cobalt
Roig, R. A.; Miller, M. H.
1974-01-01
Results of determinations of neutral-cobalt transition probabilities measured relative to Co I 4150.43 A and Co II 4145.15 A, using a gas-driven shock tube as the spectroscopic light source. Results are presented for 139 Co I lines in the range from 3940 to 6640 A and 11 Co II lines in the range from 3840 to 4730 A, which are estimated to have reliabilities ranging from 8 to 50%.
Probability for primordial black holes
Bousso, R.; Hawking, S. W.
1995-11-01
We consider two quantum cosmological models with a massive scalar field: an ordinary Friedmann universe and a universe containing primordial black holes. For both models we discuss the complex solutions to the Euclidean Einstein equations. Using the probability measure obtained from the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary proposal we find that the only unsuppressed black holes start at the Planck size but can grow with the horizon scale during the roll down of the scalar field to the minimum.
Tight Bernoulli tail probability bounds
Dzindzalieta, Dainius
2014-01-01
The purpose of the dissertation is to prove universal tight bounds for deviation from the mean probability inequalities for functions of random variables. Universal bounds shows that they are uniform with respect to some class of distributions and quantity of variables and other parameters. The bounds are called tight, if we can construct a sequence of random variables, such that the upper bounds are achieved. Such inequalities are useful for example in insurance mathematics, for constructing...
Asbestos and Probable Microscopic Polyangiitis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
George S Rashed Philteos
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Several inorganic dust lung diseases (pneumoconioses are associated with autoimmune diseases. Although autoimmune serological abnormalities are common in asbestosis, clinical autoimmune/collagen vascular diseases are not commonly reported. A case of pulmonary asbestosis complicated by perinuclear-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (myeloperoxidase positive probable microscopic polyangiitis (glomerulonephritis, pericarditis, alveolitis, multineuritis multiplex is described and the possible immunological mechanisms whereby asbestosis fibres might be relevant in induction of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies are reviewed in the present report.
Probability distributions of landslide volumes
M. T. Brunetti; Guzzetti, F.; M. Rossi
2009-01-01
We examine 19 datasets with measurements of landslide volume, VL, for sub-aerial, submarine, and extraterrestrial mass movements. Individual datasets include from 17 to 1019 landslides of different types, including rock fall, rock slide, rock avalanche, soil slide, slide, and debris flow, with individual landslide volumes ranging over 10−4 m3≤VL≤1013 m3. We determine the probability density of landslide volumes, p(VL), using kernel density estimation. Each landslide...
VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
XING Feng-ying; WU Zhong-hong; ZENG Shen-ming; LIU Guo-shi; ZHU Shi-en; ZHANG Zhong-cheng; CHEN Xue-jin
2004-01-01
Effects of different ages of donors and different conditions of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and efficiency of parthenogenetic activation were studied. The experiments included: 1) effects of different temperatures (22, 30, 37, 38.5and 40℃) of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and developmental potential; 2) effects of periods of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and development in vitro; 3) effects of different ages of donors on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and developmental potential. The results of the experiment showed:1) There were no statistical differences (p＞0.05) of the parthenogenetic cleavage rate (79.64% vs 76.18%) and blastocyst rate (18.11% vs 33.82%) between oocytes from ovaries preserved at 38.5℃ and those preserved at 37℃. When the preserving temperature was increased to 40℃, the cleavage rate (21.68%) and the blastocyst rate (0) were great significantly lower than those at 37℃(p＜0.01). The cleavage rate (80.79% vs 76.18%) and blastocyst rate (29.61% vs 33.82%) were not different between 30 and 37℃(p＞ 0.05). When the preserving temperature was decreased to 22℃, the rate of cleavage was not different,but the rate of blastocyst was significantly lower, compared with that at 37℃; 2) The cleavage and blastocyst rates of the porcine oocytes collected after slaughter 2 or 6h were not different (p＞0.05); 3) The cleavage rate of oocytes from gilts and sows after maturation was not different, but the blastocyst rate of the sow group was significantly higher than that of gilt group (p＜ 0.05). The blastocyst cell number of sows and gilt showed no difference (p＞0.05).
SureTrak Probability of Impact Display
Elliott, John
2012-01-01
The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.
Generating target probability sequences and events
Ella, Vaignana Spoorthy
2013-01-01
Cryptography and simulation of systems require that events of pre-defined probability be generated. This paper presents methods to generate target probability events based on the oblivious transfer protocol and target probabilistic sequences using probability distribution functions.
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.
2010-01-01
The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability
Parker, Bradford H.
2008-01-01
The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.
Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems
Sun, Mingxuan; Kidwell, Paul
2010-01-01
Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computation schemes using combinatorial properties of generating functions. We demonstrate our approach with several case studies involving real world movie recommendation data. The results are comparable with state-of-the-art techniques while also providing probabilistic preference estimates outside the scope of traditional recommender systems.
Stone, Rosalie A Torres; Delman, Jonathan; McKay, Colleen E; Smith, Lisa M
2015-10-01
Transition age youth and young adults (TAYYAs) diagnosed with serious mental health conditions (SMHCs) are at greater risk of being unemployed compared to their peers without SMHCs. Job counseling and job placement services are the greatest predictor of competitive employment, yet we have limited knowledge about what TAYYAs believe they need to obtain gainful employment. In person, qualitative interviews were conducted with 57 non-Hispanic and Hispanic TAYYAs with SMHCs enrolled in three vocational support programs in MA (Vocational Rehabilitation, Individual Placement and Support; the Clubhouse Model as described by the International Center for Clubhouse Development). Six themes emerged from the data: three themes were identified as social capital (supportive relationships, readily available workplace supports, and vocational preparation), two themes related to human capital (effective educational supports and work experience), and one theme related to cultural capital (social skills training). Unique features (Spanish-speaking staff and/or familiar in Latino culture, familial-like staff support) were frequently noted by Hispanic TAYYAs. PMID:24647622
Erman, Hayriye; Aksu, Uğur; Belce, Ahmet; Atukeren, Pınar; Uzun, Duygu; Cebe, Tamer; Kansu, Ahmet D; Gelişgen, Remisa; Uslu, Ezel; Aydın, Seval; Çakatay, Ufuk
2016-07-01
It is well known that in vitro storage lesions lead to membrane dysfunction and decreased number of functional erythrocytes. As erythrocytes get older, in storage media as well as in peripheral circulation, they undergo a variety of biochemical changes. In our study, the erythrocytes with different age groups in citrate phosphate dextrose adenine-formula 1 (CPDA-1) storage solution were used in order to investigate the possible effect of gender factor on oxidative damage. Oxidative damage biomarkers in erythrocyte membranes such as ferric reducing antioxidant power, pro-oxidant-antioxidant balance, protein-bound advance glycation end products, and sialic acid were analyzed. Current study reveals that change in membrane redox status during blood-bank storage condition also depends on both gender depended homeostatic factors and the presence of CPDA-1. During the storage period in CPDA-1, erythrocytes from the male donors are mostly affected by free radical-mediated oxidative stress but erythrocytes obtained from females are severely affected by glyoxidative stress. PMID:27045670
Lectures on probability and statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another
Hf Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Labby, Z E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J; Ivans, I I
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements, accurate to about +/- 5 percent, are reported for 41 odd-parity levels of Hf II. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 150 lines of Hf II. Approximately half of these new transition probabilities overlap with recent independent measurements using a similar approach. The two sets of measurements are found to be in good agreement for measurements in common. Our new laboratory data are applied to refine the hafnium photospheric solar abundance and to determine hafnium abundances in 10 metal-poor giant stars with enhanced r-process abundances. For the Sun we derive log epsilon (Hf) = 0.88 +/- 0.08 from four lines; the uncertainty is dominated by the weakness of the lines and their blending by other spectral features. Within the uncertainties of our analysis, the r-process-rich stars possess constant Hf/La and Hf/Eu abundance ratios, log epsilon (Hf...
Gd Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Den Hartog, E A; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 49 even-parity and 14 odd-parity levels of Gd II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 611 lines of Gd II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Gd II transition probabilities and the first using a high performance Fourier transform spectrometer. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Gd abundance, log epsilon = 1.11 +/- 0.03. Revised Gd abundances have also been derived for the r-process-rich metal-poor giant stars CS 22892-052, BD+17 3248, and HD 115444. The resulting Gd/Eu abundance ratios are in very good agreement with the solar-system r-process ratio. We have employed the increasingly accurate stellar abundance determinations, resulting in large part from the more precise laboratory atomic data, to predict directly the Solar System r-process elemental...
Lectures on probability and statistics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yost, G.P.
1984-09-01
These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E.; Thorbjørnsen, Steen
2002-01-01
This article and its sequel outline recent developments in the theory of infinite divisibility and Lévy processes in free probability, a subject area belonging to noncommutative (or quantum) probability. The present paper discusses the classes of infinitely divisible probability measures in classical and free probability, respectively, via a study of the Bercovici–Pata bijection between these classes.
The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Corrado Gini
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.
Delayed neutron emission probability measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Some neutrons are emitted from fission fragments several seconds to several minutes after fission occurs. These delayed neutrons play a key role for the conduct and in safety aspects of nuclear reactors [1]. But the probabilities to emit such neutrons (Pn) are not well known. A summary of different database and compilation of Pn values is presented to show these discrepancies and uncertainties. Experiments are carried out at the Lohengrin mass spectrometer (at Inst. Laue Langevin in Grenoble) and at the ISOLDE facility (CERN) in order to measure some Pn values. Two different techniques are used: either by using gamma-rays detection or neutron emission detection. These two techniques and some preliminary results are presented. (authors)
Associativity and normative credal probability.
Snow, P
2002-01-01
Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959. PMID:18238098
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
Transition Probabilities in 189Os
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The level structure of 189Os has been studied from the decay of 189Ir (13,3 days) produced in proton spallation at CERN and mass separated in the ISOLDE on-line facility. The gamma-ray spectrum has been recorded both with a high resolution Si(Li) - detector and Ge(Li) - detectors. Three previously not reported transitions were observed defining a new level at 348.5 keV. Special attention was given to the low energy level band structure. Several multipolarity mixing ratios were deduced from measured L-subshell ratios which, together with measured level half-lives, gave absolute transition probabilities. The low level decay properties are discussed in terms of the Nilsson model with the inclusion of Coriolis coupling
Validating Forecasts of the Joint Probability Density of Bond Yields:...
Egorov, Alexei V.; Yongmiao Hong; Haitao Li
2013-01-01
Most existing empirical studies on affine term structure models (ATSMs) have mainly focused on in-sample goodness-of-fit of historical bond yields and ignored out-of-sample forecast of future bond yields. Using an omnibus nonparametric procedure for density forecast evaluation in a continuous-time framework, we provide probably the first comprehensive empirical analysis of the out-of-sample performance of ATSMs in forecasting the joint conditional probability density of bond yields. We find t...
Survival probability of drug resistant mutants in malaria parasites.
Mackinnon, M. J.
1997-01-01
This study predicts the ultimate probability of survival of a newly arisen drug resistant mutant in a population of malaria parasites, with a view to understanding what conditions favour the evolution of drug resistance. Using branching process theory and a population genetics transmission model, the probabilities of survival of one- and two-locus new mutants are calculated as functions of the degree of drug pressure, the mean and variation in transmission rate, and the degree of natural sele...
Transition probabilities for argon I
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Transition probabilities for ArI lines have been calculated on the basis of the (j,k)-coupling scheme for more than 16000 spectral lines belonging to the transition arrays 4s-np (n=4 to n=9), 5s-np (n=5 to n=9), 6s-np (n=6 to n=9), 7s-np (n=8 to n=9), 4p-ns (n=5 to n=10), 5p-ns (n=6 to n=9), 6p-ns (n=7 to n=8), 4p-nd (n=3 to n=9), 5p-nd (n=4 to n=9), 3d-np (n=5 to n=9), 4d-np (n=6 to n=9), 5d-np (n=7 to n=9), 3d-nf (n=4 to n=9), 4d-nf (n=4 to n=9), 5d-nf (n=5 to n=9), 4f-nd (n=5 to n=9) 5f-nd (n=6 to n=9), 4f-ng (n=5 to n=9), 5f-ng (n=6 to n=9). Inso far as values by other authors exist, comparison is made with these values. It turns out that the results obtained in (j,k)-coupling are close to those obtained in intermediate coupling except for intercombination lines. For high principal and/or orbital quantum numbers the transition probabilities for a multiplet approach those of the corresponding transitions in atomic hydrogen. The calculated values are applied to construct a simplified argon-atom model, which reflects the real transition properties and which allows simplified but realistic non-equilibrium calculations for argon plasmas which deviate from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE)
Quantum mechanics and the concept of joint probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The concepts of joint probability as implied by the Copenhagen and realist interpretations of quantum mechanics are examined in relation to (a) the rules for manipulation of probabilistic quantities, and (b) the role of the Bell inequalities in assessing the completeness of standard quantum theory. Proponents of completeness of the Copenhagen interpretation are required to accept a modification of the classical laws of probability to provide a mechanism for complementarity. A new formulation of the locality postulate is given, not involving factorizability or conditional probabilities, which clarifies the role of locality in the derivation of the Bell inequalities
Cosmological dynamics in tomographic probability representation
Man'ko, V. I.; G. Marmo(Università di Napoli and INFN, Napoli, Italy); Stornaiolo, C.
2004-01-01
The probability representation for quantum states of the universe in which the states are described by a fair probability distribution instead of wave function (or density matrix) is developed to consider cosmological dynamics. The evolution of the universe state is described by standard positive transition probability (tomographic transition probability) instead of the complex transition probability amplitude (Feynman path integral) of the standard approach. The latter one is expressed in te...
Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications
Helms, Lester L
2010-01-01
This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process
Grace, Fergal M; Herbert, Peter; Ratcliffe, John W.; New, Karl J.; Baker, Julien S; Sculthorpe, Nicholas F.
2015-01-01
Abstract Aging is associated with diffuse impairments in vascular endothelial function and traditional aerobic exercise is known to ameliorate these changes. High intensity interval training (HIIT) is effective at improving vascular function in aging men with existing disease, but its effectiveness remains to be demonstrated in otherwise healthy sedentary aging. However, the frequency of commonly used HIIT protocols may be poorly tolerated in older cohorts. Therefore, the present study invest...
Biagini, Francesca
2016-01-01
This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ageing management is generally defined in a broad sense covering not only ageing management of hardware (structures, systems and components), but also management issues such as keeping up with developments in state-of-the-art technology and the latest management practices. The importance assigned to traditional ageing management, in terms of issues related to hardware degradation problems, is clearly very high. The other aspects, for example developments in engineering or management, are considered important as well, but are less emphasized. Plant ageing management is composed of the following necessary elements, which are all linked together: understanding and knowledge of ageing-related damage mechanisms, including benchmarking of the consequences of damage mechanisms into macroscopic behaviour of materials and structures under applicable conditions; predictive models to extrapolate behaviour of systems, structures or components up to a defined time; qualified methods for detection and surveillance of ageing degradation; qualified mitigation, repair and replacements measures; reliable plant documentation, including optimisation of the ageing management programme based on current understanding and knowledge and periodic self-assessment; availability of a technical service and knowledge base. The subject of plant ageing management has gained increasing attention over the past years, notably as more nuclear power plants across the world are being considered for lifetime extension. In this context, the NEA has conducted numerous technical studies to assess the impact of ageing mechanisms on safe and reliable plant operation. International research activities have also been initiated or are under way to provide the technical basis for decision making. This article provides an overview of some of the activities and accomplishments of the NEA Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) Working Group on the Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luiz Oswaldo Carneiro Rodrigues
1999-07-01
Full Text Available PURPOSE: To compare peak exercise oxygen consumption (VO2peak of healthy individuals with asymptomatic individuals with probable heart disease. METHODS: Ninety-eight men were evaluated. They were divided into two groups: 1 39 healthy individuals (group N with an age range of 50±4.6 years; and 2 59 asymptomatic individuals with signs of atherosclerotic and/or hypertensive heart disease (group C with an age range of 51.9±10.4 years. In regard to age, height, body surface area, percentage of fat, lean body mass, and daily physical activity, both groups were statistically similar. Environmental conditions during the ergometric test were also controlled. RESULTS: Maximal aerobic power (watts, VO2peak, maximal heart rate, and maximal pulmonary ventilation were lower in group C (p<0.01 than in group N; weight, however, was lower in group N (p=0.031 than in group C. Differences in the respiratory gas exchange index, heart rate at rest, and the maximal double product of the two groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Signs of probable heart disease, even though asymptomatic, may reduce the functional capacity, perhaps due to the lower maximal cardiac output and/or muscle metabolic changes.
Fusion probability in heavy nuclei
Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu
2015-03-01
Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross sections over a wider energy range for
Emerson, Natacha D.; Morrell, Holly E. R.; Neece, Cameron
2016-01-01
Having a consistent source of medical care may facilitate diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This study examined predictors of age of ASD diagnosis using data from the 2011-2012 National Survey of Children's Health. Using multiple linear regression analysis, age of diagnosis was predicted by race, ASD severity, having a consistent…
Avoiding Negative Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics
Nyambuya, Golden Gadzirayi
2013-01-01
As currently understood since its discovery, the bare Klein-Gordon theory consists of negative quantum probabilities which are considered to be physically meaningless if not outright obsolete. Despite this annoying setback, these negative probabilities are what led the great Paul Dirac in 1928 to the esoteric discovery of the Dirac Equation. The Dirac Equation led to one of the greatest advances in our understanding of the physical world. In this reading, we ask the seemingly senseless question, "Do negative probabilities exist in quantum mechanics?" In an effort to answer this question, we arrive at the conclusion that depending on the choice one makes of the quantum probability current, one will obtain negative probabilities. We thus propose a new quantum probability current of the Klein-Gordon theory. This quantum probability current leads directly to positive definite quantum probabilities. Because these negative probabilities are in the bare Klein-Gordon theory, intrinsically a result of negative energie...
Direct probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration
Trajectory versus probability density entropy
Bologna, Mauro; Grigolini, Paolo; Karagiorgis, Markos; Rosa, Angelo
2001-07-01
We show that the widely accepted conviction that a connection can be established between the probability density entropy and the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy is questionable. We adopt the definition of density entropy as a functional of a distribution density whose time evolution is determined by a transport equation, conceived as the only prescription to use for the calculation. Although the transport equation is built up for the purpose of affording a picture equivalent to that stemming from trajectory dynamics, no direct use of trajectory time evolution is allowed, once the transport equation is defined. With this definition in mind we prove that the detection of a time regime of increase of the density entropy with a rate identical to the KS entropy is possible only in a limited number of cases. The proposals made by some authors to establish a connection between the two entropies in general, violate our definition of density entropy and imply the concept of trajectory, which is foreign to that of density entropy.
Fasting: Benefits and probable health harmfulness from the Islamic perspective
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahdi Ebrahimi
2015-06-01
Medical science can determine the effects and consequences of thirst and hunger during the month of Ramadan. In the religious perspective, it has been emphasized that fasting is for achieving the divine virtue, and this shouldn’t be in conflict with maintaining man’s health. Therefore, the conditions in which there is the probability of harmfulness to man’s health due to fasting, man shouldn’t fast. As a result, medical science could recognize the conditions in which there is probable harmfulness to man’s health.