WorldWideScience

Sample records for age conditional probability

  1. Modelling the Age Dynamics of Chronic Health Conditions: Life-Table-Consistent Transition Probabilities and their Application

    OpenAIRE

    Frank T Denton; Byron G. Spencer

    2014-01-01

    [Background:] Surveys of chronic health conditions provide information about prevalence but not about the incidence and the process of change within the population. [Objective:] We show how the "age dynamics" of chronic conditions - the probabilities of contracting the conditions at different ages, of moving from one chronic conditions state to another, and of dying - can be inferred from prevalence data for those conditions that can be viewed as irreversible. [Methods:] Transition probabilit...

  2. ESTIMATION OF AGE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ZINTER, JUDITH R.

    THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…

  3. Logical, conditional, and classical probability

    OpenAIRE

    Quznetsov, G. A.

    2005-01-01

    The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. the logical function with all properties of the classical probability function is obtained. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of these functions. The logical analog of thd conditional probability is defined. Consistency encured by a model on a suitable variant of the nonstandard analysis.

  4. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities. PMID:27570097

  5. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  6. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  7. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan eCort

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  8. Conditional Probabilities and Collapse in Quantum Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura, Roberto; Vanni, Leonardo

    2008-09-01

    We show that including both the system and the apparatus in the quantum description of the measurement process, and using the concept of conditional probabilities, it is possible to deduce the statistical operator of the system after a measurement with a given result, which gives the probability distribution for all possible consecutive measurements on the system. This statistical operator, representing the state of the system after the first measurement, is in general not the same that would be obtained using the postulate of collapse.

  9. Contingency and its two indices within conditional probability analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Watson, John S.

    1997-01-01

    Four theoretical bases for detecting a contingency between behavior and consequent stimuli are considered: contiguity, correlation, conditional probability, and logical implication. It is argued that conditional probability analysis is statistically the most powerful of these options, in part due to its provision of two indices of contingency: a forward time probability that reinforcement follows behavior and a backward time probability that behavior precedes reinforcement. Evidence is cited ...

  10. The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Mei

    2012-01-01

    Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

  11. Residual Probability Function, Associated Orderings, and Related Aging Classes

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The concept of residual probability plays an important role in reliability and life testing. In this investigation, we study further the residual probability order and its related aging classes. Several characterizations and preservation properties of this order under some statistical and reliability operations of monotone transformation, mixture, weighted distributions, and order statistics are discussed. In addition, by comparing the original distribution with its associated equilibrium dis...

  12. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (Sst, Sst, pst) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (Ssu, Ssu, psu) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (Sst, Sst, pst) and (Ssu, Ssu, psu). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  13. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

    1996-03-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

  14. probably

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    【说词】1. He can probably tell us the truth.2. Will it rain this afternoong ? Probably【解语】作副词,意为“大概、或许”,表示可能性很大,通常指根据目前情况作出积极推测或判断;

  15. The feature on the posterior conditional probability of finite state Markov channel

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MU Li-hua; SHEN Ji-hong; YUAN Yan-hua

    2005-01-01

    The feature of finite state Markov channel probability distribution is discussed on condition that original I/O are known. The probability is called posterior condition probability. It is also proved by Bayes formula that posterior condition probability forms stationary Markov sequence if channel input is independently and identically distributed. On the contrary, Markov property of posterior condition probability isn' t kept if the input isn't independently and identically distributed and a numerical example is utilized to explain this case. The properties of posterior condition probability will aid the study of the numerical calculated recurrence formula of finite state Markov channel capacity.

  16. An Alternative Teaching Method of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of the Truth Table

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…

  17. The Probability of Transition to Entrepreneurship Revisited: Wealth, Education and Age

    OpenAIRE

    Mondragon-Velez, Camilo

    2009-01-01

    This paper revisits the empirical relationship between the probability of transition to entrepreneurship and wealth. Given that wealth is correlated with both education and age, these observable characteristics cannot be treated as independent covariates in the estimation. Thus, I document the differences in the transition probability profile across age and education groups. The main result of this paper is that the estimated probability of transition to entrepreneurship is hump-shaped in wea...

  18. Age at Puberty and Father Absence in a National Probability Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaert, A.F.

    2005-01-01

    The relations between intactness of the parental unit (e.g., father absent at age 14) and pubertal timing in both men and women were examined in a US national probability sample. In both men and women, an absent father at age 14 predicted an earlier age of puberty (e.g., early menarche or voice change). There was little evidence that an absent…

  19. Probability of developing severe sepsis in patients of elderly and senile age with necrotic erysipelas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shapkin Yu.G.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: the probable determination of severe sepsis in patients of elderly and senile age with necrotic erysipelas based on a comprehensive assessment (clinical examination using systems — scales and determination of the level markers of SIRS. Material and methods. The analysis of peculiarities of necrotic erysipelas clinical course in 59 patients. The first group consisted of 17 patients with severe sepsis, the second — 18 patients with sepsis without multiple organ failure, in the comparison group —22 patients with local infection. We determined albumin, urea, creatinine, pro-calcitonin of plasma. The scale SAPS III was used to quantify SIRS, scale SOFA —to determine the extent of damage to organs and systems. Results. The most sensitive marker of developing sepsis in patients with necrotic erysipelas was procalcitonin. The second important indicator of SIRS severity in patients with necrotic erysipelas was the blood albumin. Scale SAPS III also allows to select a group of patients with high risk of developing severe sepsis. Use of the SOFA to predict the scale has been found out to be less important. Conclusion. A comprehensive assessment of the severity of the condition by scale SAPS III in combination with determining the levels of procalcitonin and plasma albumin is advisable to apply for prediction the probability of developing severe sepsis in patients of elderly and senile age with necrotic erysipelas. For the last indicator it is important to assess of absolute values and the decrease of its concentration.

  20. Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a skew-symmetric probability density function

    OpenAIRE

    Mazzuco, Stefano; Scarpa, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    Mixture probability density functions had recently been proposed to describe some fertility patterns characterized by a bi-modal shape. These mixture probability density functions appear to be adequate when the fertility pattern is actually bi-modal but less useful when the shape of age-specific fertility rates is unimodal. A further model is proposed based on skew-symmetric probability density functions. This model is both more parsimonious than mixture distributions and more flexible, sh...

  1. Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

  2. Using Dynamic Geometry Software for Teaching Conditional Probability with Area-Proportional Venn Diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas

    2012-01-01

    This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…

  3. Concepts and bounded rationality: An application of Niestegge's approach to conditional quantum probabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Blutner

    2008-01-01

    Recently, Gerd Niestegge developed a new approach to quantum mechanics via conditional probabilities developing the well-known proposal to consider the Lüders-von Neumann measurement as a non-classical extension of probability conditionalization. I will apply his powerful and rigorous approach to th

  4. An inverse problem for a class of conditional probability measure-dependent evolution equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

    2016-09-01

    We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by partial differential equation models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach.

  5. Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joop de Beer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. OBJECTIVE This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other smoothing and projection methods. METHODS TOPALS uses a linear spline to describe the ratios between the age-specific death probabilities of a given country and a standard age schedule. For smoothing purposes I use the average of death probabilities over 15 Western European countries as standard, whereas for projection purposes I use an age schedule of 'best practice' mortality. A partial adjustment model projects how quickly the death probabilities move in the direction of the best-practice level of mortality. RESULTS On average, TOPALS performs better than the Heligman-Pollard model and the Brass relational method in smoothing mortality age schedules. TOPALS can produce projections that are similar to those of the Lee-Carter method, but can easily be used to produce alternative scenarios as well. This article presents three projections of life expectancy at birth for the year 2060 for 26 European countries. The Baseline scenario assumes a continuation of the past trend in each country, the Convergence scenario assumes that there is a common trend across European countries, and the Acceleration scenario assumes that the future decline of death probabilities will exceed that in the past. The Baseline scenario projects that average European life expectancy at birth will increase to 80 years for men and 87 years for women in 2060, whereas the Acceleration scenario projects an increase to 90 and 93 years respectively. CONCLUSIONS TOPALS is a useful new tool for demographers for both smoothing age schedules and making scenarios.

  6. Conditional probabilities of identity of genes at a locus linked to a marker

    OpenAIRE

    Chevalet, Claude; GILLOIS, M.; Vu Tien Khang Bourgoin, Jacqueline

    1984-01-01

    A method is given for determining the probabilities that genes are identical by descent, at a locus linked to a marker where phenotypic data are available. For tight linkage, such conditional probabilities of identity may differ very much from unconditional ones ; they depend on the dominance relationships between alleles at the marker locus, and on the allelic frequencies. Applications discussed refer to the calculation of general two-locus descent measures, to the validation of pedigre...

  7. Age at menarche: the influence of environmental conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saar, E.; Shalev, C.; Dalal, I.; Sod-Moriah, U. A.

    1988-03-01

    Age at menarche was studied by the recollection method in two groups of Causasian Jewish high school girls, inhabitants of two towns in Israel, Safad and Elat. The two towns differ mainly in climatic conditions. The age at menarche was found to be significantly lower ( Pmenarche and the town in which the girls lived. Accordingly, in the hot town of Elat, the percentage of girls who had their first menstrual cycle by the age of 12 years and earlier, was more than double that of the girls in Safad (17.9% and 7.1%, respectively). It is concluded that the environmental temperature, with or without any possible interaction of humidity, is probably responsible for the tendency for an earlier onset of menarche in girls living in the hot town of Elat.

  8. Random forest models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...

  9. Non-classical conditional probability and the quantum no-cloning theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niestegge, Gerd

    2015-09-01

    The quantum mechanical no-cloning theorem for pure states is generalized and transfered to the quantum logics with a conditional probability calculus in a rather abstract, though simple and basic fashion without relying on a tensor product construction or finite dimension as required in other generalizations.

  10. The effect of conditional probability of chord progression on brain response: an MEG study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Goo Kim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent electrophysiological and neuroimaging studies have explored how and where musical syntax in Western music is processed in the human brain. An inappropriate chord progression elicits an event-related potential (ERP component called an early right anterior negativity (ERAN or simply an early anterior negativity (EAN in an early stage of processing the musical syntax. Though the possible underlying mechanism of the EAN is assumed to be probabilistic learning, the effect of the probability of chord progressions on the EAN response has not been previously explored explicitly. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, the empirical conditional probabilities in a Western music corpus were employed as an approximation of the frequencies in previous exposure of participants. Three types of chord progression were presented to musicians and non-musicians in order to examine the correlation between the probability of chord progression and the neuromagnetic response using magnetoencephalography (MEG. Chord progressions were found to elicit early responses in a negatively correlating fashion with the conditional probability. Observed EANm (as a magnetic counterpart of the EAN component responses were consistent with the previously reported EAN responses in terms of latency and location. The effect of conditional probability interacted with the effect of musical training. In addition, the neural response also correlated with the behavioral measures in the non-musicians. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study is the first to reveal the correlation between the probability of chord progression and the corresponding neuromagnetic response. The current results suggest that the physiological response is a reflection of the probabilistic representations of the musical syntax. Moreover, the results indicate that the probabilistic representation is related to the musical training as well as the sensitivity of an individual.

  11. Adolescents’ performance on delay and probability discounting tasks: contributions of age, intelligence, executive functioning, and self-reported externalizing behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Elizabeth A Olson; Hooper, Catalina J.; COLLINS, Paul; Luciana, Monica

    2007-01-01

    Healthy adolescents, ages 9–23, completed delay and probability discounting tasks and measures of verbal and nonverbal intelligence, executive functioning, and self-reported internalizing and externalizing behavior. Delay but not probability discounting decreased with age. Delay discounting was also associated with verbal intelligence and Go-NoGo and Iowa Gambling Task performance. Probability discounting was associated only with externalizing behavior. Findings conform to an accumulation of ...

  12. Conditional probability based significance tests for sequential patterns in multi-neuronal spike trains

    CERN Document Server

    Sastry, P S

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multi-neuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by an ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns which are frequent in the sense that the count of non-overlapping occurrences of the pattern in the data stream is above a threshold. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of these repeating patterns and to set the thresholds automatically. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that includes not only models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a proba...

  13. The Use of Conditional Probability Integral Transformation Method for Testing Accelerated Failure Time Models

    OpenAIRE

    Abdalla Ahmed Abdel-Ghaly; Hanan Mohamed Aly; Elham Abdel-Malik Abde-Rahman

    2016-01-01

    This paper suggests the use of the conditional probability integral transformation (CPIT) method as a goodness of fit (GOF) technique in the field of accelerated life testing (ALT), specifically for validating the underlying distributional assumption in accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The method is based on transforming the data into independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) Uniform (0, 1) random variables and then applying the modified Watson statistic to test the uniformity of t...

  14. Modelling low pay transition probabilities, accounting for panel attrition, non-response, and initial conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Cappellari, Lorenzo; Jenkins, Stephen P.

    2004-01-01

    We model annual low pay transition probabilities taking account of three potentially endogenous selections: two sample drop-out mechanisms (panel attrition, non-employment) and ‘initial conditions’ (base-year low pay status). This model, and variants that ignore one or more of these selection mechanisms, are fitted to data for men from the British Household Panel Survey. Tests of the ignorability of the endogenous selection mechanisms suggest that ‘economic’ selection mechanisms such ...

  15. Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

    2016-05-01

    This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.

  16. Age dependent hit probabilities for lung cancer induction following exhalation of ingested radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Previous calculations of the risk following ingestion of 222Rn (radon) in drinking water have been concerned primarily with the solubilization of the radon in body tissues, followed by in situ decay. Much less attention has been directed towards the escape of radon from lung tissue and blood into the alveolar air, which should lead to doses to lung tissue as the newly formed progeny deposit in lung passages prior to exhalation. The present report details the calculation of hit probabilities to the basal cells of the bronchial epithelium and alveolar cells in various age groups following ingestion of radon in drinking water. Results are compared with those obtained for the in situ decay of radon within the lung mass. (author)

  17. Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

    2014-01-01

    Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions. PMID:25252799

  18. Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

    2016-01-01

    When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence.

  19. The Use of Conditional Probability Integral Transformation Method for Testing Accelerated Failure Time Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdalla Ahmed Abdel-Ghaly

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests the use of the conditional probability integral transformation (CPIT method as a goodness of fit (GOF technique in the field of accelerated life testing (ALT, specifically for validating the underlying distributional assumption in accelerated failure time (AFT model. The method is based on transforming the data into independent and identically distributed (i.i.d Uniform (0, 1 random variables and then applying the modified Watson statistic to test the uniformity of the transformed random variables. This technique is used to validate each of the exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions' assumptions in AFT model under constant stress and complete sampling. The performance of the CPIT method is investigated via a simulation study. It is concluded that this method performs well in case of exponential and lognormal distributions. Finally, a real life example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed procedure.

  20. Error Probability Analysis of Free-Space Optical Links with Different Channel Model under Turbulent Condition

    CERN Document Server

    Barua, Bobby; Islam, Md Rezwan

    2012-01-01

    Free space optics (FSO) is a promising solution for the need to very high data rate point-to point communication. FSO communication technology became popular due to its large bandwidth potential, unlicensed spectrum, excellent security and quick and inexpensive setup. Unfortunately, atmospheric turbulence-induced fading is one of the main impairments affecting FSO communications. To design a high performance communication link for the atmospheric FSO channel, it is of great importance to characterize the channel with proper model. In this paper, the modulation format is Q-ary PPM across lasers, with intensity modulation and ideal photodetectors are assumed to investigate the most efficient PDF models for FSO communication under turbulent condition. The performance results are evaluated in terms of symbol error probability (SEP) for different type of channel model and the simulation results confirm the analytical findings.

  1. A FAMILY OF SUMMARY CHI SQUARE TESTS FOR COMPARING SURVIVAL RATES RATHER THAN CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES DYING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Objective This paper propses a family of summary chi square tests for comparing survival rates at all points of time between two groups. Methods They are respectively derived from the Peto et al. expression for the log rank test, the Mantel-Haenszel expression for the log rank test, and the generalized Wilcoxon test by means of using the homogenetic effective sample size in place of the number at risk and using the corresponding numerator of the conditional probability surviving in place of the death number. Results After such derivations they become clearer in clinical significance, more powerful, and free from the assumption of proportional hazard. Conclusion These tests can be employed in analyzing the clinical data of cancer. A worked example illustrates the methodology.

  2. Genetic evaluation of weaning weight and probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee lambs

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this study was to investigate genetic control of 120-day weaning weight and the probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee ewe lambs. Records of 5,967 ewe lambs born from 1989 to 2012 and first exposed to rams for breeding at approximately 7 months of age were analyzed. Reco...

  3. A probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for the critical components of wind turbine generator systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yaogang; Li, Hui; Liao, Xinglin; Song, Erbing; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Z.

    2016-08-01

    This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition was presented. Finally, two cases showed the validity of the proposed probability evaluation method in detecting early deterioration condition and in tracking their further deterioration for the critical components.

  4. A Novel Adaptive Conditional Probability-Based Predicting Model for User’s Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengmeng Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the pervasive increase in social media use, the explosion of users’ generated data provides a potentially very rich source of information, which plays an important role in helping online researchers understand user’s behaviors deeply. Since user’s personality traits are the driving force of user’s behaviors, hence, in this paper, along with social network features, we first extract linguistic features, emotional statistical features, and topic features from user’s Facebook status updates, followed by quantifying importance of features via Kendall correlation coefficient. And then, on the basis of weighted features and dynamic updated thresholds of personality traits, we deploy a novel adaptive conditional probability-based predicting model which considers prior knowledge of correlations between user’s personality traits to predict user’s Big Five personality traits. In the experimental work, we explore the existence of correlations between user’s personality traits which provides a better theoretical support for our proposed method. Moreover, on the same Facebook dataset, compared to other methods, our method can achieve an F1-measure of 80.6% when taking into account correlations between user’s personality traits, and there is an impressive improvement of 5.8% over other approaches.

  5. Probability distribution, conditional dissipation, and transport of passive temperature fluctuations in grid-generated turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The evolution of the scalar probability density function (pdf), the conditional scalar dissipation rate, and other statistics including transport properties are studied for passive temperature fluctuations in decaying grid-generated turbulence. The effect of filtering and differentiating the time series is also investigated. For a nonzero mean temperature gradient it is shown that the pdf of the temperature fluctuations has pronounced exponential tails for turbulence Reynolds number (Rel) greater than 70 but below this value the pdf is close to Gaussian. The scalar dissipation rate, conditioned on the fluctuations, shows that there is a high expectation of dissipation in the presence of the large, rare fluctuations that produce the exponential tails. Significant positive correlation between the mean square scalar fluctuations and the instantaneous scalar dissipation rate is found when exponential tails occur. The case of temperature fluctuations in the absence of a mean gradient is also studied. Here, the results are less definite because the generation of the fluctuations (by means of fine heated wires) causes an asymmetry in the pdf. The results show, however, that the pdf is close to Gaussian and that the correlation between the mean square temperature fluctuations and the instantaneous scalar dissipation rate is very weak. For the linear profile case, measurements over the range 60≤Rel≤1100 show that the dimensionless heat flux Nu is proportional to Rel0.88 and that the transition from a Gaussian pdf to one with exponential tails occurs at Nu∼31, a value close to transitions observed in other recent mixing experiments conducted in entirely different turbulent flows

  6. Landslide susceptibility mapping of vicinity of Yaka Landslide (Gelendost, Turkey) using conditional probability approach in GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozdemir, Adnan

    2009-06-01

    On 19 February 2007, a landslide occurred on the Alaardıç Slope, located 1.6 km south of the town of Yaka (Gelendost, Turkey.) Subsequently, the displaced materials transformed into a mud flow in Eğlence Creek and continued 750 m downstream towards the town of Yaka. The mass poised for motion in the Yaka Landslide source area and its vicinity, which would be triggered to a kinetic state by trigger factors such as heavy or sustained rainfall and/or snowmelt, poise a danger in the form of loss of life and property to Yaka with its population of 3,000. This study was undertaken to construct a susceptibility mapping of the vicinity of the Yaka Landslide’s source area and to relate it to movement of the landslide mass with the goal of prevention or mitigation of loss of life and property. The landslide susceptibility map was formulated by designating the relationship of the effecting factors that cause landslides such as lithology, gradient, slope aspect, elevation, topographical moisture index, and stream power index to the landslide map, as determined by analysis of the terrain, through the implementation of the conditional probability method. It was determined that the surface area of the Goksogut formation, which has attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100-1,300 m, a slope gradient of 15°-35° and a slope aspect between 0°-67.5° and 157°-247°. Loss of life and property may be avoided by the construction of structures to check the debris mass in Eğlence Creek, the cleaning of the canal which passes through Yaka, the broadening of the canal’s base area, elevating the protective edges along the canal and the establishment of a protective zone at least 10-m wide on each side of the canal to deter against damage from probable landslide occurrence and mud flow.

  7. Accessing probable thermal histories through dispersed, partially-reset zircon (U-Th)/He ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Jeremy; Schneider, David

    2016-04-01

    exhibited by the datasets. We do not recommend selecting only the youngest dates from samples or averaging (U-Th)/He dates, as these methods do not acknowledge the complexity of the (U-Th)/He system and potentially exclude non-obvious, but equally probable, geologic scenarios. To this extent, using the vertical profile approach to assess exhumation rates from cooling age data may also provide an inaccurate result if the strata have not been buried to sufficient temperatures to completely reset any prior thermal history. As an alternative, we analyzed more grains from individual samples and combine data from similar structural regions to assess regional trends in thermal history. We believe that this approach does an appropriate job of acknowledging the errors and assumptions involved in the technique while providing meaningful information on thermal history of a region. Thermal modeling of the Mackenzie Mountains data reveals that (1) a substantial sedimentary package was deposited following the Devonian and removed during Permo-Triassic cooling, and (2) the Cordilleran deformation front propagated through the study area from the Albian to the Paleocene, with a moderate increase in cooling rates between 75-67 Ma in the southwest, and 60-55 Ma at the deformation front.

  8. Conditional probability Markov chain simulation based reliability analysis method for nonnormal variables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Based on fast Markov chain simulation for generating the samples distributed in failure region and saddlepoint approximation(SA) technique,an efficient reliability analysis method is presented to evaluate the small failure probability of non-linear limit state function(LSF) with non-normal variables.In the presented method,the failure probability of the non-linear LSF is transformed into a product of the failure probability of the introduced linear LSF and a feature ratio factor.The introduced linear LSF which approximately has the same maximum likelihood points as the non-linear LSF is constructed and its failure probability can be calculated by SA technique.The feature ratio factor,which can be evaluated on the basis of multiplicative rule of probability,exhibits the relation between the failure probability of the non-linear LSF and that of the linear LSF,and it can be fast computed by utilizing the Markov chain algorithm to directly simulate the samples distributed in the failure regions of the non-linear LSF and those of the linear LSF.Moreover,the expectation and variance of the failure probability estimate are derived.The results of several examples demonstrate that the presented method has wide applicability,can be easily implemented,and possesses high precision and high efficiency.

  9. Adverse environmental conditions influence age-related innate immune responsiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amankwa Joseph

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background- The innate immune system plays an important role in the recognition and induction of protective responses against infectious pathogens, whilst there is increasing evidence for a role in mediating chronic inflammatory diseases at older age. Despite indications that environmental conditions can influence the senescence process of the adaptive immune system, it is not known whether the same holds true for the innate immune system. Therefore we studied whether age-related innate immune responses are similar or differ between populations living under very diverse environmental conditions. Methods- We compared cross-sectional age-related changes in ex vivo innate cytokine responses in a population living under affluent conditions in the Netherlands (age 20–68 years old, n = 304 and a population living under adverse environmental conditions in Ghana (age 23–95 years old, n = 562. Results- We found a significant decrease in LPS-induced Interleukin (IL-10 and Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF production with age in the Dutch population. In Ghana a similar age-related decline in IL-10 responses to LPS, as well as to zymosan, or LPS plus zymosan, was observed. TNF production, however, did not show an age-associated decline, but increased significantly with age in response to co-stimulation with LPS and zymosan. Conclusion- We conclude that the decline in innate cytokine responses is an intrinsic ageing phenomenon, while pathogen exposure and/or selective survival drive pro-inflammatory responses under adverse living conditions.

  10. Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. Objective: This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and co

  11. Classic conditioning in aged rabbits: delay, trace, and long-delay conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, P R; Groccia-Ellison, M E

    1996-06-01

    Young (0.5 years) and aged (2+, 3+, and 4+ years) rabbits underwent acquisition of the classically conditioned nictitating membrane response in a delay (500-ms conditioned stimulus [CS], 400-ms interstimulus interval [ISI]), long-delay (1,000-ms CS, 900-ms ISI), or trace (500-ms CS, 400-ms stimulus-free period) paradigm. Collapsing across age groups, there is a general tendency for animals to acquire trace conditioning more slowly than delay conditioning. Collapsing across conditioning paradigms, there is a general tendency for aged animals to acquire more slowly than younger animals. Of greater significance, however, are the age differences in the different conditioning paradigms. In the delay and long-delay paradigms, significant conditioning deficits first appeared in the 4(+)-year-old group. In the trace conditioning paradigm, significant conditioning deficits became apparent in the 2(+)-year-old animals.

  12. The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, C. D., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.

  13. A probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for the critical components of wind turbine generator systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Y.; Li, H.; Liao, X;

    2016-01-01

    This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration......-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation...... method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method...

  14. Transfer of Solutions to Conditional Probability Problems: Effects of Example Problem Format, Solution Format, and Problem Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Alan F.; Van Haneghan, James P.

    2016-01-01

    This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

  15. A simple application of probability model for the mean age at marriage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An attempt has been made in this paper to examine the age pattern of marriage among Nepalese women. A lognormal distribution has been used and applied to the data from Nepal Fertility Survey (1986). The estimation procedure has been carried out by using method of moments and maximum likelihood method. (author). 6 refs, 1 tab

  16. Eyeblink classical conditioning differentiates normal aging from Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff-Pak, D S

    2001-01-01

    Eyeblink classical conditioning is a useful paradigm for the study of the neurobiology of learning, memory, and aging, which also has application in the differential diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases expressed in advancing age. Converging evidence from studies of eyeblink conditioning in neurological patients and brain imaging in normal adults document parallels in the neural substrates of this form of associative learning in humans and non-human mammals. Age differences in the short-delay procedure (400 ms CS-US interval) appear in middle age in humans and may be caused at least in part by cerebellar cortical changes such as loss of Purkinje cells. Whereas the hippocampus is not essential for conditioning in the delay procedure, disruption of hippocampal cholinergic neurotransmission impairs acquisition and slows the rate of learning. Alzheimer's disease (AD) profoundly disrupts the hippocampaL cholinergic system, and patients with AD consistently perform poorly in eyeblink conditioning. We hypothesize that disruption of hippocampal cholinergic pathways in AD in addition to age-associated Purkinje cell loss results in severely impaired eyeblink conditioning. The earliest pathology in AD occurs in entorhinal cortical input to hippocampus, and eyeblink conditioning may detect this early disruption before declarative learning and memory circuits become impaired. A case study is presented in which eyeblink conditioning detected impending dementia six years before changes on other screening tests indicated impairment. Because eyeblink conditioning is simple, non-threatening, and non-invasive, it may become a useful addition to test batteries designed to differentiate normal aging from mild cognitive impairment that progresses to AD and AD from other types of dementia.

  17. Minor and trace element composition and age of Yukon probable-microtektites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boundy-Sanders, S. Q.; Hervig, R. L.

    1993-01-01

    Major, minor, and trace element composition of the candidate micro tektites from Yukon Territory suggest a possible impact site of hydrothermally altered limestone and sand or chert, or possibly a carbonatite. Their REE/chondrite curve is similar in character to, but higher than, shale composites of North America, Australia, and Europe. Relative to these same composites, the Yukon droplets are enriched in Y, F, S, Sr, P, Mn, Mg, and Ca. They are depleted in Rb, Li, Th, Nb, Ti, K, Na, Fe, Si, and Al. Biostratigraphic constraints on the droplets indicate they are Middle to Late Devonian, more likely Middle Devonian, in age.

  18. The probability of generating the symmetric group with a commutator condition

    CERN Document Server

    Birulia, Raman

    2012-01-01

    Let B(n) be the set of pairs of permutations from the symmetric group of degree n with a 3-cycle commutator, and let A(n) be the set of those pairs which generate the symmetric or the alternating group of degree n. We find effective formulas for calculating the cardinalities of both sets. More precisely, we show that #B(n)/n! is a discrete convolution of the partition function and a linear combination of divisor functions, while #A(n)/n! is the product of a polynomial and Jordan's totient function. In particular, it follows that the probability that a pair of random permutations with a 3-cycle commutator generates the symmetric or the alternating group of degree n tends to zero as n tends to infinity, which makes a contrast with Dixon's classical result. Key elements of our proofs are Jordan's theorem from the 19th century, a formula by Ramanujan from the 20th century and a technique of square-tiled surfaces developed by French mathematicians Lelievre and Royer in the beginning of the 21st century. This paper...

  19. The influence of adverse weather conditions on probability of congestion on dutch motorways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stralen, W.J.H. van; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the influence o

  20. [Anemia in women of reproductive age. The results of a national probability survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, H; González-Cossío, T; Flores, M; Rivera-Dommarco, J; Lezana, M A; Sepúlveda-Amor, J

    1995-01-01

    Iron deficiency is one of the most prevalent forms of malnutrition which is clinically known as anemia. Functional consequences of anemia include impairment of cardiovascular performance, limitation in productivity, higher incidence of low birth weight and premature delivery, and increased maternal mortality. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of anemia in women of reproductive age in Mexico. Data were collected by the Ministry of Health through a National Nutrition Survey in 1988, which draw a representative sample from four regions: North, Center, South and Federal District. Anemia was more prevalent in pregnant (18.17%) than in non-pregnant women (15.38%). Those women living in predominantly indigenous communities had higher prevalence of anemia (24.02%) than non-indigenous women (14.67%). Anemia was more prevalent in urban areas (15.54%) than in rural (13.56%). Mean +/- standard deviation values for hemoglobin were lower in pregnant women (12.5 +/- 1.6 g/dL) than in non-pregnant ones (13.7 +/- 1.6 g/dL). Consistently, the Northern and Southern regions were worse off than the Center and the Federal District. These data indicate that anemia is a public health problem in Mexico. The functional consequences of this deficiency justify interventions to treat and prevent it. PMID:7618111

  1. [Anemia in women of reproductive age. The results of a national probability survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, H; González-Cossío, T; Flores, M; Rivera-Dommarco, J; Lezana, M A; Sepúlveda-Amor, J

    1995-01-01

    Iron deficiency is one of the most prevalent forms of malnutrition which is clinically known as anemia. Functional consequences of anemia include impairment of cardiovascular performance, limitation in productivity, higher incidence of low birth weight and premature delivery, and increased maternal mortality. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of anemia in women of reproductive age in Mexico. Data were collected by the Ministry of Health through a National Nutrition Survey in 1988, which draw a representative sample from four regions: North, Center, South and Federal District. Anemia was more prevalent in pregnant (18.17%) than in non-pregnant women (15.38%). Those women living in predominantly indigenous communities had higher prevalence of anemia (24.02%) than non-indigenous women (14.67%). Anemia was more prevalent in urban areas (15.54%) than in rural (13.56%). Mean +/- standard deviation values for hemoglobin were lower in pregnant women (12.5 +/- 1.6 g/dL) than in non-pregnant ones (13.7 +/- 1.6 g/dL). Consistently, the Northern and Southern regions were worse off than the Center and the Federal District. These data indicate that anemia is a public health problem in Mexico. The functional consequences of this deficiency justify interventions to treat and prevent it.

  2. Performance of bolted closure joint elastomers under cask aging conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verst, C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Sindelar, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Skidmore, E. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Daugherty, W. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2015-07-23

    The bolted closure joint of a bare spent fuel cask is susceptible to age-related degradation and potential loss of confinement function under long-term storage conditions. Elastomeric seals, a component of the joint typically used to facilitate leak testing of the primary seal that includes the metallic seal and bolting, is susceptible to degradation over time by several mechanisms, principally via thermo-oxidation, stress-relaxation, and radiolytic degradation under time and temperature condition. Irradiation and thermal exposure testing and evaluation of an ethylene-propylene diene monomer (EPDM) elastomeric seal material similar to that used in the CASTOR® V/21 cask for a matrix of temperature and radiation exposure conditions relevant to the cask extended storage conditions, and development of semiempirical predictive models for loss of sealing force is in progress. A special insert was developed to allow Compressive Stress Relaxation (CSR) measurements before and after the irradiation and/or thermal exposure without unloading the elastomer. A condition of the loss of sealing force for the onset of leakage was suggested. The experimentation and modeling being performed could enable acquisition of extensive coupled aging data as well as an estimation of the timeframe when loss of sealing function under aging (temperature/radiation) conditions may occur.

  3. Vertical changes in the probability distribution of downward irradiance within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw

    2011-07-01

    Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.

  4. Study on probability of failure for RPV nozzle region under severe accident condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Il Soon; Oh, Young Jin; Sim, Sang Hoon [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea)

    2002-04-01

    Most of previous studies for creep rupture of RPV lower head under severe accident condition, have been focused on global failure of RPV lower head. In contrast, the local failure of the RPV nozzle region has not been studied in detail. This study focused the nozzle failure analysis into creep rupture evaluation of RPV lower head under severe accident condition, and this will help improve the safety assessment of nuclear power plants under severe accident conditions. The existence and features of nozzle failure in LAVA-ICI tested vessel of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and LHF-4 tested vessel of SNL, are examined. To understand the basic mechanical properties of nozzle material and weld metal, the tensile tests in various temperature levels and the creep rupture tests in various temperature and stress levels, are accomplished. The stress and deformation of LAVA-ICI experiments are analysed using measured basic mechanical properties. The failure time of Advanced Power Reactor 1400 (APR1400) in nozzle region was calculated using modified TMI-2 VIP model. Nozzle region failure characteristics was studied for SNL-LHF-4 experimental case using Finite Element Method (FEM). Using characteristics of nozzle failure, a new failure prediction experimental method was proposed for RPV nozzle failure. 19 refs., 43 figs. (Author)

  5. Path dependence of lithium ion cells aging under storage conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Laisuo; Zhang, Jianbo; Huang, Jun; Ge, Hao; Li, Zhe; Xie, Fengchao; Liaw, Bor Yann

    2016-05-01

    This work investigates path dependence of lithium ion cells that are stored under static and non-static conditions. In the static storage tests, the levels of temperature and state of charge (SOC) are kept constant. The results of 12 tests from a combination of three temperatures and four SOCs show that, as expected, the cell ages faster at higher temperature and higher SOC. However, the cell aging mode, while consistent for all the evaluated temperatures, is different at 95% SOC from that at lower SOCs. In the non-static storage tests, the levels of temperature and SOC vary with time during the test process. The effect of the sequence of stress levels on cell aging is studied statistically using the statistical method of analysis of variation (ANOVA). It is found that cell capacity fade is path independent of both SOC and temperature, while cell resistance increase is path dependent on SOC and path independent of temperature. Finally, rate-based empirical aging models are adopted to fit the cell aging in the static storage tests. The aging model for capacity fade is demonstrated to be applicable to the non-static tests with errors between -3% and +3% for all the tested conditions over 180 days.

  6. Frequency distribution and discrimination probability of twelve protein genetic variants in human blood as functions of race, sex, and age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunbaum, B W; Selvin, S; Pace, N; Black, D M

    1978-07-01

    Fresh blood samples were obtained from 6004 whites, 1025 blacks, 1596 Chicano/Amerindians, and 3053 Asians of California and Hawaii. The samples were typed for ABO and Rh groups and were analyzed electrophoretically for ten genetically determined protein variant systems. The effects of race, age, and sex on phenotypic frequencies within each of the twelve genetic systems were investigated. Large frequency differences were found between races but not between different age and sex subgroups within races. It was also demonstrated that the twelve genetic systems behaved statistically independently. Discrimination probabilities were computed for each of the four ethnic groups. These serve as a measure of the effectiveness of the twelve genetic systems examined in individualizing blood samples. The method is discussed for computing the probability that a randomly chosen individual of a given ethnic group possesses the same blood phenotypes as found in a predetermined sample of blood. The results presented here should prove useful in the investigation of civil and criminal cases involving blood samples.

  7. On Possible Influence of Space Weather on Agricultural Markets: Necessary Conditions and Probable Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pustilnik, Lev

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable m...

  8. Automatic Sleep Stage Determination by Multi-Valued Decision Making Based on Conditional Probability with Optimal Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bei; Sugi, Takenao; Wang, Xingyu; Nakamura, Masatoshi

    Data for human sleep study may be affected by internal and external influences. The recorded sleep data contains complex and stochastic factors, which increase the difficulties for the computerized sleep stage determination techniques to be applied for clinical practice. The aim of this study is to develop an automatic sleep stage determination system which is optimized for variable sleep data. The main methodology includes two modules: expert knowledge database construction and automatic sleep stage determination. Visual inspection by a qualified clinician is utilized to obtain the probability density function of parameters during the learning process of expert knowledge database construction. Parameter selection is introduced in order to make the algorithm flexible. Automatic sleep stage determination is manipulated based on conditional probability. The result showed close agreement comparing with the visual inspection by clinician. The developed system can meet the customized requirements in hospitals and institutions.

  9. Impact of aging conditions on mechanical properties of thermoplastic polyurethane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, impact of environmental aging conditions on the mechanical properties of thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) was investigated. Especially, effect of temperature on water diffusion has been studied. Water-sorption experiments, tensile test and dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) were performed after immersion in distilled water at different temperatures (25, 70 and 90 oC). The sorption process was analyzed by gravimetric measurements at different temperatures. Also, diffusion coefficients of solvent molecules in the TPU samples were identified. Therefore the activation energy and the mixing enthalpy were deduced. The aging impact on some mechanical properties of this material has been investigated after various aging cycles. Degradation of mechanical properties was observed. In fact, elastic modulus and stress at 200% of strain were decreased. It was also shown that such degradation largely depends on both aging temperature and aging immersion duration. The storage modulus (E') was also affected by the hygrothermal (HT) environment. The modification of mechanical properties seems to be well correlated to structural observations obtained from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) photographs. Finally, through thermal aging experiments, it was deduced that the combination of temperature with water seems to be a major factor of TPU degradation.

  10. Early Age Thermal Conditioning Improves Broiler Chick's Response to Acute Heat Stress at Marketing Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed M. Hassan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Acute heat stress at marketing age especially in broiler chickens raised in open houses with reduced means of heat exchange leads to economic losses. The objective of this study was to determine beneficial effects of early age thermal conditioning in reducing adverse effects of acute heat stress and decrease losses. Approach: Ninety one day-old broiler chicks were randomly assigned to one of three treatments (n = 30: (1 control (normally raised, (2 early age thermal conditioning (exposed to temperature of 40±1°C for 24 h at 5th day of age, then raised as control chicks and (3 chronic stress (exposed to 33±2°C from day one till 6 weeks of age. At 42nd day of age, all chicks were subjected to acute heat stress of 39±2°C for 2 h. Blood samples were collected from all groups before and after exposure to acute heat stress. Results: Blood pH increased in both controls and thermally-conditioned chicks after exposure to acute heat stress coinciding with significant decrease in blood carbon dioxide pressure (pCo2 in controls only. Blood potassium level decreased in controls, while in thermally-conditioned or chronically-stressed no significant changes were observed. Blood sodium level showed a trend toward decreased levels in controls while a trend toward increased levels was observed in both thermally-conditioned and chronically-stressed birds. Importantly, significant reductions were observed in total erythrocyte count and hemoglobin level in chronically-stressed birds as compared to other groups before and after acute stress exposure. Hetrophil/lymphocyte ratio increased in both controls and thermally-conditioned chicks after acute heat exposure, but not in chronically-stressed birds. Conclusion: When exposed to acute heat stress at marketing age, chicks subjected to early age thermal conditioning responded very similar to birds adapted to chronic heat stress indicating a protective role of early age thermal conditioning.

  11. Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report contains some test results of a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. (au)

  12. CS-dependent response probability in an auditory masked-detection task: considerations based on models of Pavlovian conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Christine R; Idrobo, Fabio; Early, Susan J; Abibi, Ayome; Zheng, Ling; Harrison, J Michael; Carney, Laurel H

    2003-05-01

    Experimental studies were performed using a Pavlovian-conditioned eyeblink response to measure detection of a variable-sound-level tone (T) in a fixed-sound-level masking noise (N) in rabbits. Results showed an increase in the asymptotic probability of conditioned responses (CRs) to the reinforced TN trials and a decrease in the asymptotic rate of eyeblink responses to the non-reinforced N presentations as a function of the sound level of the T. These observations are consistent with expected behaviour in an auditory masked detection task, but they are not consistent with predictions from a traditional application of the Rescorla-Wagner or Pearce models of associative learning. To implement these models, one typically considers only the actual stimuli and reinforcement on each trial. We found that by considering perceptual interactions and concepts from signal detection theory, these models could predict the CS dependence on the sound level of the T. In these alternative implementations, the animals response probabilities were used as a guide in making assumptions about the "effective stimuli".

  13. The conditions of believe and unbelieve in a secular Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Cincunegui

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In A Secular Age the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor offered an analytical description and a genealogy of the current conditions of belief and unbelief in the North Atlantic contemporary societies. He encouraged as well a set of similar investigations in other cultural settings that are affected by the processes of modernization. He argues about the existence of ‘alternative modernities’ each one of them facing critically the univocal sociological theories of modernity and secularization that interpreted as universal the process of disenchantment occurred in the West and the setbacks with regard to the presence of religion in the public sphere and religious practice in some contemporary Western societies

  14. Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick; Frigon, Anne; Ratté-Fortin, Claudie

    2014-11-01

    Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past.

  15. Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report describes a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, which is based on Frequency Domain Reflectometry. This method resulted in the development of a system called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. LIRA is composed of a signal generator, a signal analyser and a simulator that can be used to simulate several failure/degradation scenarios and assess the accuracy and sensitivity of the LIRA system. Chapter 5 of this report describes an complementary approach based on positron measurement techniques, used widely in defect physics due to the high sensitivity to micro defects, in particular open volume defects. This report describes in details these methodologies, the results of field experiments and the proposed future work. (au)

  16. Complexity in caring for an ageing heart failure population: concomitant chronic conditions and age related impairments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Geest, Sabina; Steeman, Els; Leventhal, Marcia E; Mahrer-Imhof, Romy; Hengartner-Kopp, Beatrice; Conca, Antoinette; Bernasconi, Arlette T; Petry, Heidi; Brunner-La Rocca, Hanspeter

    2004-12-01

    The complexity of caring for the ageing heart failure (HF) population is further complicated by concomitant chronic conditions (i.e., polypharmacy, depression), age related impairments (i.e., hearing, visual and cognitive impairments, impairments in activities of daily living (ADL/IADL), and other issues (e.g., health illiteracy, lack of social support). This paper provides an overview of these risk factors, outlines how they individually and in interplay endanger favourable outcome by putting patients at risk for poor self-management. Moreover, suggestions are made on how these issues could be addressed and integrated in heart failure management by applying gerontological care principles in caring for the ageing heart failure population.

  17. Stochastic modeling of groundwater flow and particle transport in a 2-D heterogeneous medium by the method of conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study addresses the issues of groundwater flow and particle transport in a 2-D heterogenous porous medium. We follow here the line of G. Dagan and Y. Rubin. In a series of articles these authors propose and represent the variables involves ((transmissivity, head, Darcy velocity, particle position and travel time) by means of stochastic processes. The (unconditional) moments are first derived by solving the partial differential equations corresponding to a 2-D flow in a saturated medium, with no recharge. In a second step, the variances of the processes are reduced bu taking local data into account within the conditional probabilities framework. In this document we present a complete theoretical study of the method and apply it on synthetical test cases. We deal with the following matters: study the impact of different data type and configurations on the conditional estimation of the flow and transport variables; study the robustness of the model for increasing levels of heterogeneity by means of comparison with the moments obtained by Monte-Carlo simulations. The method is enlarged to weakly un-stationary flow cases (non constant transmissivity and head gradient means) and applied on synthetical test cases. (author)

  18. Statistics concerning the Apollo command module water landing, including the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, sucessful impact, and body X-axis loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitnah, A. M.; Howes, D. B.

    1971-01-01

    Statistical information for the Apollo command module water landings is presented. This information includes the probability of occurrence of various impact conditions, a successful impact, and body X-axis loads of various magnitudes.

  19. Probable recent water/lava source fissures in the Cerberus Plains: stratigraphic and crater count age constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R.

    2012-09-01

    The Cerberus Plains have received increasing attention in recent years due to evidence from highresolution imagery that they are some of the youngest surfaces on Mars. The plains are incised by large outflow channels, possibly as recently as 20Ma in the case of Athabasca Valles [2]. These channels are generally thought to be water-carved [1,3], though it is possible they were incised by turbulent lava [8]. As recently as 10Ma or less [5] both the channels and the plains around them are proposed to have been draped with lava [7]. Thus the recent activity forming the Cerberus Plains probably required large volumes of both water and lava. The problem which arises is a source. Cerberus Fossae have been suggested as the source of the Athabasca Valles outflows [3,6], but topographic and stratigraphic issues have arisen which make this unlikely: for example, a streamlined island spans the fossa where water and/or lava is said to have originated [4]. No other specific sources have been identified. As plains volcanism often obscures its fissures, sources should be searched for in features elevated above the plain. New HiRISE images have shown just such a feature: a wrinkle ridge south of Cerberus Fossae incised by a series of fissures. Every fissure has associated channels and deposits indicating outflow onto the plains surrounding the ridge. Until now, the stratigraphic history of these features was poorly known, with Tanaka et al.'s [9] geological map considering the area only on the broadest scale. This study produces small-scale geomorphological maps to establish the stratigraphic relationships between the fissure-sourced outflows and the plains surrounding the ridge to test the hypothesis that they were the source of the plains material. Crater counting is also conducted to supplement stratigraphic observations and give tentative ages.

  20. The prevalence of probable migraine and sleep quality among women aged 20-49 living in a semi-rural area in western Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Egemen Unal; Resat Aydin; Mehmet Enes Gokler; Alaettin Unsal

    2015-01-01

    Background: We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of probable migraine, to examine the factors associated with probable migraine and to assess the level of sleep quality among women aged 20-45 who were living in the county town named Mahmudiye, in Eskisehir, in Turkey. Methods: The study was carried out in all women aged 20-45 years in Mahmudiye. 69.2% of women (n=570) comprised the study group. Questionnaire consisted of three parts: The first part included several socio-demographic, nutri...

  1. Age and condition assessments for fuel handling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Throughout the nuclear industry, power plants are approaching, or in some cases have already exceeded, their originally forecasted operation life expectancy. This situation has forced nuclear power plant operators to shift greater amounts of their focus toward equipment reliability and maintenance, while simultaneously supporting increased power generation requirements, and reductions in forced outages. As a result, support organizations for the power plants, such as maintenance, spare parts, procurement, and engineering, are under more pressure than ever. In an effort to deal with this situation, programs are being developed to help manage the effects on critical components of age-related degradation. During recent years, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Canada(GEH-C) has been commissioned by both Bruce Power and Ontario Power Generation to perform assessments of their Fuel Handling systems. The Fuel Handling systems were identified as fundamentally different from other plant systems, and GEH-C, as the Fuel Handling OEM, was best positioned to perform these assessments. Due to the size of the plants, and the quantity of components in the system, the scopes of the assessments covered portions of the Life Cycle Management Programs which were different for each plant. The methodologies used varied, and evolved with lessons learned as the assessments progressed. In common was a desire by the plants to categorize the levels of risk posed by different components, and to identify their criticality to the plant in terms of both safety and operating performance. The challenge for the operating stations is to take information from these assessments and incorporate it into dynamic, living programs that can be used effectively to extend operational life. The presentation outlines the key aspects of age and condition-based assessments on Fuel Handling systems, and the lessons learned that are critical to the success of these initiatives.

  2. 失效概率函数的可靠性度量及其求解的条件概率模拟法%Reliability Measure Based on Failure Probability Function and Its Solution by Conditional Probability Simulation Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁修开; 吕震宙; 周长聪

    2012-01-01

    结构失效概率为设计参数的函数的求解是可靠性优化中的关键问题.提出一种失效概率函数的高效求解方法及一种新的可靠性度量指标,它为失效概率函数在分布参数空间上的统计特征值.所提方法的主要思路是采用条件概率模拟及三阶最大熵法来求解失效概率函数.条件概率模拟法是引入中间失效域,将所求失效概率转化成条件概率比值与中间失效域的概率的乘积形式,并通过两次马尔科夫链模拟分别对失效域及中间失效域的模拟来得到条件概率的比值.中间失效域为线性形式,其失效概率可容易求得.此外还采用三阶最大熵法来得到失效域样本的条件密度分布,最终得到所求的失效概率函数.结合算例探讨所提方法的精度、效率和适用性,结果表明所提的求解方法在确保精度的情况下具有较高的效率,在工程上是可行的.%The solution of the failure probability as a function of the distribution parameters is the key problem in reliability-based optimization. A novel method is proposed to obtain the failure probability function and a new reliability measure, which is the statistics characteristic value of the failure probability function. The key idea of the proposed method is using the conditional probability Markov chain simulation and the third order maximum entropy method to obtain the failure probability function. The conditional probability Markov chain simulation firstly transforms the failure probability into the product of a feature ratio factor and the probability of an introduced linear failure region, and then Markov chain algorithm is adopted to calculate the ratio factor by directly simulating the samples of the failure regions, the probability of the introduced linear failure region can be calculated easily. The third order maximum entropy method is implemented to estimate the conditional density function based on failure samples and obtain

  3. Effects of surface conditioning on repair bond strengths of non-aged and aged microhybrid, nanohybrid, and nanofilled composite resins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rinastiti, Margareta; Siswomihardjo, Widowati; Busscher, Henk J.; Ozcan, Mutlu

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluates effects of aging on repair bond strengths of microhybrid, nanohybrid, and nanofilled composite resins and characterizes the interacting surfaces after aging. Disk-shaped composite specimens were assigned to one of three aging conditions: (1) thermocycling (5,000x, 5-55 degrees C

  4. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  5. The Development of Skin Conductance Fear Conditioning in Children from Ages 3 to 8 Years

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.

    2010-01-01

    Although fear conditioning is an important psychological construct implicated in behavioral and emotional problems little is known about how it develops in early childhood. Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, this longitudinal study assessed skin conductance conditioned responses in 200 children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 years. Results demonstrated that in both boys and girls: (1) fear conditioning increased across age, particularly from ages 5 to 6 years, (2) t...

  6. Effect of physicochemical aging conditions on the composite-composite repair bond strength

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brendeke, Johannes; Ozcan, Mutlu

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: This study evaluated the effect of different physicochemical aging methods and surface conditioning techniques on the repair bond strength of composite. It was hypothesized that the aging conditions would decrease the repair bond strength and surface conditioning methods would perform simil

  7. Muon capture probability of carbon and oxygen for CO, CO2, and COS under low-pressure gas conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When a negatively charged muon is stopped in a substance, it is captured by an atom of the substance, and the muonic atom is formed. The muon capture process is significantly affected by the chemical environment of the atom and factors such as molecular structure (chemical effect). In this study, we performed muon irradiation for low-pressure CO, CO2, and COS molecules and measured the muonic X-rays emitted immediately after muon capture by an atom. In this paper, we quantitatively discuss the muon capture probability of each type of atom using the LMM model. (author)

  8. Ageing of low-firing prehistoric ceramics in hydrothermal conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Zemenová

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Remains of a prehistoric ceramic object, a moon-shaped idol from the Bronze Age found in archaeological site Zdiby near Prague in the Czech Republic, were studied especially in terms of the firing temperature. Archaeological ceramics was usually fired at temperatures below 1000 °C. It contained unstable non-crystalline products, residua after calcination of clay components of a ceramic material. These products as metakaolinite can undergo a reverse rehydration to a structure close to kaolinite. The aim of this work was to prove whether the identified kaolinite in archaeological ceramics is a product of rehydration. The model compound containing high amount of kaolinite was prepared in order to follow its changes during calcination and hydrothermal treatment. Archaeological ceramics and the model compound were treated by hydrothermal ageing and studied by XRF, XRD and IR analyses. It was proved that the presence of kaolinite in the border-parts of the archaeological object was not a product of rehydration, but that it originated from the raw materials.

  9. Eye Conditions in Older Adults: Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iroku-Malize, Tochi; Kirsch, Scott

    2016-06-01

    Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) causes a progressive loss of photoreceptors in the macula. It is the most common cause of legal blindness in the United States, and some form of AMD is thought to affect more than 9 million individuals. Risk factors include older age, smoking, dyslipidemia, obesity, white race, female sex, and a family history of AMD. There are two types of advanced AMD: nonexudative (dry or geographic atrophy) and exudative (wet or neovascular). Both cause progressive central vision loss with intact peripheral vision. Nonexudative AMD accounts for 80% to 90% of all advanced cases, and more than 90% of patients with severe vision loss have exudative AMD. On ophthalmoscopic examination, early findings include drusen (ie, yellow deposits in the retina). Prominent choroidal vessels, subretinal edema, and/or hemorrhage are seen in wet AMD. Regular eye examinations, visual field testing, fluorescein angiography, and optical coherence tomography are used for diagnosis and to guide management. There is no specific therapy for dry AMD, but antioxidant supplementation may be helpful. Intravitreal injection of a vascular endothelial growth factor inhibitor is the treatment of choice for wet AMD. Optical aids and devices can help to maximize function for patients with AMD. PMID:27348529

  10. Reduced Electrodermal Fear Conditioning from Ages 3 to 8 Years Is Associated with Aggressive Behavior at Age 8 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Poor fear conditioning characterizes adult psychopathy and criminality, but it is not known whether it is related to aggressive/antisocial behavior in early childhood. Methods: Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, electrodermal activity was recorded from 200 male and female children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and…

  11. Effect of surface conditioning methods on the microtensile bond strength of resin composite to composite after aging conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ozcan, Mutlu; Barbosa, Silvia Helena; Melo, Renata Marques; Galhano, Graziela Avila Prado; Bottino, Marco Antonio

    2007-01-01

    Objectives. This study evaluated the effect of two different surface conditioning methods on the repair bond strength of a bis-GMA-adduct/bis-EMA/TEGDMA based resin composite after three aging conditions. Methods. Thirty-six composite resin blocks (Esthet X, Dentsply) were prepared (5 mm x 6 mm x 6

  12. Classical Conditioning and Retention of the Infant's Eyelid Response: Effects of Age and Interstimulus Interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Arlene H.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Reports that lengthy interstimulus interval facilitates classical conditioning in very young infants. Infants trained in a single session at 20 days of age exhibited reliable retention of the conditioned eyelid reflex 10 days later, but infants 10 days of age did not. (Author)

  13. 条件密度置信区间的覆盖精度%Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals for a Conditional Probability Density Function

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    雷庆祝; 秦永松

    2007-01-01

    本文用经验似然方法讨论了条件密度的置信区间的构造.通过对覆盖概率的Edgeworth展开得到了经验似然置信区间的覆盖精度,同时证明了条件密度的经验似然置信区间的Bartlett可修正性.%Point-wise confidence intervals for a conditional probability density function are considered.The confidence intervals are based on the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

  14. The Development of Skin Conductance Fear Conditioning in Children from Ages 3 to 8 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.

    2010-01-01

    Although fear conditioning is an important psychological construct implicated in behavioral and emotional problems, little is known about how it develops in early childhood. Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, this longitudinal study assessed skin conductance conditioned responses in 200 children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6,…

  15. Quantum probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gudder, Stanley P

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne

  16. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    , extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially......The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  17. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  18. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  19. An attempt to model the probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 production of Aspergillus flavus under non-isothermal conditions in pistachio nuts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldars-García, Laila; Ramos, Antonio J; Sanchis, Vicente; Marín, Sonia

    2015-10-01

    Human exposure to aflatoxins in foods is of great concern. The aim of this work was to use predictive mycology as a strategy to mitigate the aflatoxin burden in pistachio nuts postharvest. The probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production of aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus, isolated from pistachio nuts, under static and non-isothermal conditions was studied. Four theoretical temperature scenarios, including temperature levels observed in pistachio nuts during shipping and storage, were used. Two types of inoculum were included: a cocktail of 25 A. flavus isolates and a single isolate inoculum. Initial water activity was adjusted to 0.87. Logistic models, with temperature and time as explanatory variables, were fitted to the probability of growth and AFB1 production under a constant temperature. Subsequently, they were used to predict probabilities under non-isothermal scenarios, with levels of concordance from 90 to 100% in most of the cases. Furthermore, the presence of AFB1 in pistachio nuts could be correctly predicted in 70-81 % of the cases from a growth model developed in pistachio nuts, and in 67-81% of the cases from an AFB1 model developed in pistachio agar. The information obtained in the present work could be used by producers and processors to predict the time for AFB1 production by A. flavus on pistachio nuts during transport and storage.

  20. The Classical Conditioning of Attitudes: A Comparative Study of Ages 8 to 18

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, John M.; Brown, Mari J. K.

    1973-01-01

    Results of this study indicated that attitude conditioning increased with age and that the increase appeared to be a function of contingency awareness and perhaps also a function of the older subjects' having greater facility in transferring symbolic meaning. (Author)

  1. The food-conditioned place preference task in adolescent, adult and aged rats of both sexes

    OpenAIRE

    Rubinow, Marisa J.; Hagerbaumer, Diana A.; Juraska, Janice M.

    2008-01-01

    The rat basolateral amygdala shows neuroanatomical sex differences, continuing development after puberty and aging-related alterations. Implications for amygdala-dependent memory processes were explored here by testing male and female hooded rats in adolescence, adulthood and old age on the food-conditioned place preference task. While aged rats were unimpaired, adolescents failed to learn the task. This finding may be related to ongoing development of the basolateral amygdala and related mem...

  2. INFLUENCE OF INCREASING OF THE PENSION AGE ON FINANCIAL CONDITION OF THE PENSION FUND

    OpenAIRE

    S. Kovalenko

    2011-01-01

    One of the main problems of pension system reforming such as retirement age raise is analized, retirement age raise influence on financial condition of pension system is determined, solutions of the given problem at the present stage of pension system reforming are offered.

  3. Age-related decrease in motor cortical inhibition during standing under different sensory conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papegaaij, Selma; Taube, Wolfgang; Hogenhout, Margot; Baudry, Stephane; Hortobagyi, Tibor

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although recent studies point to the involvement of the primary motor cortex in postural control, it is unknown if age-related deterioration of postural control is associated with changes in motor cortical circuits. We examined the interaction between age and sensory condition in the exc

  4. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...

  5. Do Early Life and Contemporaneous Macro-conditions explain Health at Older Ages?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alessie, Rob; Deeg, Dorly; Portrait, France

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents an approach which thoroughly assesses the role of early life and contemporaneous macro-conditions in explaining health at older ages. In particular, we investigate the role of exposure to infectious diseases and economic conditions during infancy and childhood, as well as the effe

  6. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  7. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L

    2016-02-01

    Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  8. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  9. Water Age Responses to Weather Conditions in a Hyper-Eutrophic Channel Reservoir in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Du

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Channel reservoirs have the characteristics of both rivers and lakes, in which hydrodynamic conditions and the factors affecting the eutrophication process are complex and highly affected by weather conditions. Water age at any location in the reservoir is used as an indicator for describing the spatial and temporal variations of water exchange and nutrient transport. The hyper-eutrophic Changtan Reservoir (CTR in Southern China was investigated. Three weather conditions including wet, normal, and dry years were considered for assessing the response of water age by using the coupled watershed model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model Environmental Fluid Hydrodynamic Code (EFDC. The results showed that the water age in CTR varied tremendously under different weather conditions. The averaged water ages at the downstream of CTR were 3 d, 60 d, and 110 d, respectively in the three typical wet, normal, and dry years. The highest water ages at the main tributary were >70 d, >100 d, and >200 d, respectively. The spatial distribution of water ages in the tributaries and the reservoir were mainly affected by precipitation. This paper provides useful information on water exchange and transport pathways in channel reservoir, which will be helpful in understanding nutrient dynamics for controlling algal blooms.

  10. Early-Age Strength of Ultra-High Performance Concrete in Various Curing Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Sup Park

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The strength of Ultra-High Performance Concrete (UHPC can be sensitively affected by the curing method used. However, in contrast to the precast plant production of UHPC where a standard high-temperature steam curing is available, an optimum curing condition is rarely realized with cast-in-place UHPC. Therefore, the trend of the compressive strength development of UHPC was experimentally investigated in this study, with a focus on early-age strength by assuming the various curing conditions anticipated on site. Concrete specimens were cured under different conditions with variables including curing temperature, delay time before the initiation of curing, duration of curing, and moisture condition. Several conditions for curing are proposed that are required when the cast-in-place UHPC should gain a specified strength at an early age. It is expected that the practical use of UHPC on construction sites can be expedited through this study.

  11. A behavioral stages model of classical (Pavlovian) conditioning: application to cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, D A

    1999-01-01

    In the present article, it is argued that a five-stage sequential model of the behavioral and neurophysiological events that occur when organisms are exposed to signals predicting significant events suggests that classical conditioning produces multiple memory traces involving both excitatory and inhibitory processes. Further, these multiple brain structures and associated neurophysiological mechanisms are beginning to be understood; thus, using Pavlovian conditioning techniques to study aging and cognitive functions may provide insights into which brain structures or mechanisms are responsible for more general age-related declines in associative learning and memory. The evidence for this model is briefly reviewed and studies suggesting age-related effects on classical conditioning of various response systems are described within the context of the brain structures implicated by the model.

  12. Survivability of integrated PVDF film sensors to accelerated ageing conditions in aeronautical/aerospace structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work validates the use of integrated polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) film sensors for dynamic testing, even after being subjected to UV-thermo-hygro-mechanical accelerated ageing conditions. The verification of PVDF sensors’ survivability in these environmental conditions, typically confronted by civil and military aircraft, is the main concern of the study. The evaluation of survivability is made by a comparison of dynamic testing results provided by the PVDF patch sensors subjected to an accelerated ageing protocol, and those provided by neutral non-aged sensors (accelerometers). The available measurements are the time-domain response signals issued from a modal analysis procedure, and the corresponding frequency response functions (FRF). These are in turn used to identify the constitutive properties of the samples by extraction of the modal parameters, in particular the natural frequencies. The composite specimens in this study undergo different accelerated ageing processes. After several weeks of experimentation, the samples exhibit a loss of stiffness, represented by a decrease in the elastic moduli down to 10%. Despite the ageing, the integrated PVDF sensors, subjected to the same ageing conditions, are still capable of providing reliable data to carry out a close followup of these changes. This survivability is a determinant asset in order to use integrated PVDF sensors to perform structural health monitoring (SHM) in the future of full-scale composite aeronautical structures. (paper)

  13. Groundwater Quality, Age, and Probability of Contamination, Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, L. Niel

    2009-01-01

    The Eagle River watershed is located near the destination resort town of Vail, Colorado. The area has a fastgrowing permanent population, and the resort industry is rapidly expanding. A large percentage of the land undergoing development to support that growth overlies the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer (ERWVFA), which likely has a high predisposition to groundwater contamination. As development continues, local organizations need tools to evaluate potential land-development effects on ground- and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. To help develop these tools, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, conducted a study in 2006-2007 of the groundwater quality, age, and probability of contamination in the ERWVFA, north-central Colorado. Ground- and surface-water quality samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water, tritium, dissolved gases, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) determined with very low-level laboratory methods. The major-ion data indicate that groundwaters in the ERWVFA can be classified into two major groups: groundwater that was recharged by infiltration of surface water, and groundwater that had less immediate recharge from surface water and had elevated sulfate concentrations. Sulfate concentrations exceeded the USEPA National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations (250 milligrams per liter) in many wells near Eagle, Gypsum, and Dotsero. The predominant source of sulfate to groundwater in the Eagle River watershed is the Eagle Valley Evaporite, which is a gypsum deposit of Pennsylvanian age located predominantly in the western one-half of Eagle County.

  14. Dielectric Spectroscopy of Bisphenol A Epoxy Resin Aged in Wet and Dry Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Vaishampayan, Deep

    2009-01-01

    This thesis presents the laboratory test data on Bisphenol A epoxy insulation.This thesis work deals with electrical, mechanical and thermal analysis of Bisphenol A epoxy resin. The main aim of this thesis work was to examine if dry and wet aging changes the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the epoxies and measure the impact on the complex permittivity under different ageing conditions namely dry and wet. During ageing the samples (epoxy discs and dog bones) were kept in water at 20°C, 45...

  15. Time-dependent Early-age Behaviors of Concrete under Restrained Condition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Xinwei; CAO Lixin; R D Hooton; H Lam; NIU Changren

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the early-age behaviors of concrete under a restrained condition, a set of apparatus was developed. In this way, the tensile creep and other early-age properties can be investigated in depth. By measuring the modulus of elasticity of concrete, synchronous shrinkage of concrete and steel rings and free shrinkage of concrete, the deformations of concrete ring can be quantified respectively. The experimental results show the tensile stress in concrete is time-dependent, and the stress at cracking is much lower than the tensile strength at that age; the tensile creep plays an important role in relaxing the tensile stress and postponing the cracking of concrete.

  16. Effect of age condition on fatigue properties of 2E12 aluminum alloy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Liang; DU Feng-shan; DAI Sheng-long; YANG Shou-jie

    2010-01-01

    The fatigue behaviors of 2E12 aluminum alloy in T3 and T6 conditions at room temperature in air were investigated.The microstructures and fatigue fracture surfaces of the alloy were examined by transmission electron microscopy(TEM)and scanning electron microscopy(SEM).The results show that the alloy exhibits higher fatigue crack propagation(FCP)resistance in T3condition than in T6 condition,the fatigue life is increased by 54% and the fatigue crack growth rate(FCGR)decreases significantly.The fatigue fractures of the alloy in T3 and T6 conditions are transgranular.But in T3 condition,secondary cracks occur and fatigue striations are not clear.In T6 condition,ductile fatigue striations are observed.The effect of aging conditions on fatigue behaviors is explained in terms of the slip planarity of dislocations and the cyclic slip reversibility.

  17. Conditional Probability Statistical Distributions in Variant Measurement Simulations%在变值测量模拟中的条件概率统计分布

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑智捷

    2011-01-01

    针对常见的两类量子交互干涉实验,Young 氏双缝干涉和超低强度长时间曝光量子交互结果显示出的明显波动统计分布特性,本文基于另一种经典概率测量模型Bayes统计依据的条件概率方法,提出条件概率变值测量模型,建立了测量模拟方法,给出了不同参量的测量公式,并对相关的重要条件进行描述.通过2个具体例子按每个函数形成四组16个直方图统计分布进行比较,对给定例子中的重要特性进行了分析.分析表明,在同步/异步、对称/反对称的作用下,条件概率测量模拟系统能针对左路、右路、双路粒子和双路波动交互作条件形成两类8种不同的统计分布.从不同的侧面显现了双路粒子同左/右路异步加算符信号之间的直接耦合关系,以及左/右路同步加算符信号与双路波动之间的干涉输出关系.在条件概率模型的条件下,单路/双路、粒子和波动的区别非常明晰,可以从中看到Feynman提炼的经典和量子统计之间的区别,统计判据直接从直方图分布中即可区分.这类特性从基础层面显示了波/粒二重性的怪异特性,可以通过粒子性的模型完整描述.%Two quantum interactive experiments are shown in strong wave-like interference properties, ie Young double slit experiment and very lower intensive and very long time explosin experiment for quanta. This paper is based on a classical statistic scheme: Bayes statistics on Conditional Probability to propose conditional probability measurements and relevant statistcal models to visualized complex properties of their interactions. Variant measurement simulation model is established and corresponding measring equations and perameters are formulated . Two typical cases are selected and each time has corresponding to four groups of results in 16 histograms. Under this construction, it is feasible to understand the intrinsic wave-like properties of quantum interactions

  18. Using the Bayes theorem of conditional probabilities to obtain the neutron u x of the RECH-1 experimental nuclear reactor at CCHEN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Bayes' theorem of conditional probabilities is shown as an alternative to unfold the neutron u x energy distribution, Φ (E), from neutron activation measurements of different target material, A∞i at RECH-1 reactor core at CCHEN and the corresponding tabulated cross sectionsσ, since A∞ i = J∞ o σi (E)Φ(E)d E,→A∞i = Σn j = 1σijΦj. The unfolding algorithms used in the analysis of target activation to obtain the neutron flux energy spectrum of a nuclear reactor core in similar devices worldwide, need an a priori knowledge of the spectrum shape to solve the inverse problem of obtaining Φj. The advantage of using the Bayes based unfolding iterative algorithm is that an a priori knowledge of the neutron u x spectrum is not needed to obtain the experimental spectrum. In fact it is possible to start iterating with an uniform distribution. This unfolding algorithm have been used recently to solve analogue problems in nuclear physics such obtaining feeding probabilities in total gamma spectroscopy beta decay measurements, and to obtain the neutron energy background at Can franc Underground Laboratories using 3He detectors embedded in individual polyethylene blocks of different sizes. Furthermore, using this algorithm to obtain neutron energy spectrum from a nuclear reactor is a novel work, extending the applicability of the method. In this work, due the activation measurements have not been done yet, an analysis of the unfolding algorithm is presented using real tabulated cross sections and starting the iterations from an uniform u x distribution

  19. Review of Physicochemical-Based Diagnostic Techniques for Assessing Insulation Condition in Aged Transformers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janvier Sylvestre N’cho

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A power transformer outage has a dramatic financial consequence not only for electric power systems utilities but also for interconnected customers. The service reliability of this important asset largely depends upon the condition of the oil-paper insulation. Therefore, by keeping the qualities of oil-paper insulation system in pristine condition, the maintenance planners can reduce the decline rate of internal faults. Accurate diagnostic methods for analyzing the condition of transformers are therefore essential. Currently, there are various electrical and physicochemical diagnostic techniques available for insulation condition monitoring of power transformers. This paper is aimed at the description, analysis and interpretation of modern physicochemical diagnostics techniques for assessing insulation condition in aged transformers. Since fields and laboratory experiences have shown that transformer oil contains about 70% of diagnostic information, the physicochemical analyses of oil samples can therefore be extremely useful in monitoring the condition of power transformers.

  20. Chemiluminescence as a condition monitoring method for thermal aging and lifetime prediction of an HTPB elastomer.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias Christopher; Trujillo, Ana B.

    2007-03-01

    Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basis of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.

  1. Fatal accident distribution by age, gender and head injury, and death probability at accident scene in Mashhad, Iran, 2006-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangooei Dovom, Hossein; Shafahi, Yousef; Zangooei Dovom, Mehdi

    2013-01-01

    Several studies have investigated road traffic deaths, but few have compared by road user type. Iran, with an estimated 44 road traffic deaths per 100,000 population in 2002 had higher road traffic deaths than any other country for which reliable estimates can be made. So, the present study was conducted on road death data and identified fatal accident distribution by age, gender and head injury as well as the influences of age and gender on deaths at accident scenes for all road user groups. Data used in this study are on fatal road accidents recorded by forensic medicine experts of the Khorasan Razavi province in Mashhad, the capital of the province, the second largest city and the largest place of pilgrimage, immigration and tourism in Iran. Chi-square test and odds ratio were used to identify the relation of death place with age and gender in 2495 fatal road accidents from 2006 to 2009. The t-test and analysis of variance were employed for continues variable, age, to compare males' and females' mean age for all road user categories. For two genders, all three groups of fatalities (pedestrian, motorcyclist and motor vehicle occupant) had a peak at the ages of 21-30. The youngest were male motorcyclists (mean age = 28). Old pedestrians were included in road deaths very much, too. Male/female overall ratio was 3.41 and the highest male/female ratio was related to motorcyclists (14). The overall ratio of head injury to other organ injuries (torso and underbody) was 2.51 and pedestrians had the largest amount of head injury (38.2%). Regarding death at accident scene, for all road users, gender did not have any significant relation with death at the scene (P-value > 0.1); on the contrary, age had significant relation (P-value < 0.05). Females were more vulnerable at accident scenes (male/female ratio at accident sense < 1). Pedestrians aged 21-30, motorcyclists 41-50 and motor vehicle occupants 31-40 died the most at accident scenes. Identifying the most

  2. Electrical-Based Diagnostic Techniques for Assessing Insulation Condition in Aged Transformers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issouf Fofana

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The condition of the internal cellulosic paper and oil insulation are of concern for the performance of power transformers. Over the years, a number of methods have been developed to diagnose and monitor the degradation/aging of the transformer internal insulation system. Some of this degradation/aging can be assessed from electrical responses. Currently there are a variety of electrical-based diagnostic techniques available for insulation condition monitoring of power transformers. In most cases, the electrical signals being monitored are due to mechanical or electric changes caused by physical changes in resistivity, inductance or capacitance, moisture, contamination or aging by-products in the insulation. This paper presents a description of commonly used and modern electrical-based diagnostic techniques along with their interpretation schemes.

  3. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  4. Influence of ambient conditions on the ageing behaviour of plasma-treated PET surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plasma treatment is often used to modify the surface properties of polymer films, since it offers numerous advantages over the conventional surface modification techniques. However, plasma-treated polymer films have a tendency to revert back to the untreated state (ageing process). Therefore, the stability of plasma induced changes on polymer surfaces over a desired period of time is a very important issue. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of storage conditions (relative humidity, temperature and pressure) on the ageing behaviour in air of plasma-treated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) films. Plasma treatment is performed using a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) operating in air at medium pressure (5.0 kPa). Results show that the ageing process can be suppressed by storing the PET films at low temperature or by decreasing the relative humidity of the surrounding air. In this paper, it is also shown that decreasing pressure has no influence on the ageing process

  5. Air Pollution modifies the association between successful and pathological aging throughout the frailty condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fougère, Bertrand; Vellas, Bruno; Billet, Sylvain; Martin, Perrine J; Gallucci, Maurizio; Cesari, Matteo

    2015-11-01

    The rapid growth in the number of older adults has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures. Aging leads to a decline and deterioration of functional properties at the cellular, tissue and organ level. This loss of functional properties yields to a loss of homeostasis and decreased adaptability to internal and external stress. Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness, weight loss, and low activity that is associated with adverse health outcomes. Frailty manifests as an age-related, biological vulnerability to stressors and decreased physiological reserves. Ambient air pollution exposure affects human health, and elderly people appear to be particularly susceptible to its adverse effects. The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of air pollution in the modulation of several biological mechanisms involved in aging. Evidence is presented on how air pollution can modify the bidirectional association between successful and pathological aging throughout the frailty conditions.

  6. Early-life conditions and age at first pregnancy in British women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettle, Daniel; Coall, David A; Dickins, Thomas E

    2011-06-01

    There is growing evidence that the reproductive schedules of female mammals can be affected by conditions experienced during early development, with low parental investment leading to accelerated life-history strategies in the offspring. In humans, the relationships between early-life conditions and timing of puberty are well studied, but much less attention has been paid to reproductive behaviour. Here, we investigate associations between early-life conditions and age at first pregnancy (AFP) in a large, longitudinally studied cohort of British women (n = 4553). Low birthweight for gestational age, short duration of breastfeeding, separation from mother in childhood, frequent family residential moves and lack of paternal involvement are all independently associated with earlier first pregnancy. Apart from that of birthweight, the effects are robust to adjustment for family socioeconomic position (SEP) and the cohort member's mother's age at her birth. The association between childhood SEP and AFP is partially mediated by early-life conditions, and the association between early-life conditions and AFP is partially mediated by emotional and behavioural problems in childhood. The overall relationship between early-life adversities and AFP appears to be approximately additive.

  7. Condition base maintenance for nuclear power plants with regards to ageing management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ageing management of plants is a multifaceted issue where materials along with the degradation mechanism form one of the most important factors. Condition monitoring techniques and periodic inspection programme allow detection, identification and evaluation of the degradation of structures, systems and components at the very incipient stage so that the degradation can be attended and timely mitigatory actions initiated. Non-destructive examinations as part of condition monitoring play a key role in the health assessment and ageing management in NPPs. It is intended to discuss in this paper an overview of condition monitoring techniques currently in use and the efforts for the remnant life analysis as well as the refurbishment in Indian nuclear power plants. (author)

  8. Effects of Paradigm and Inter-Stimulus Interval on Age Differences in Eyeblink Classical Conditioning in Rabbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff-Pak, Diana S.; Seta, Susan E.; Roker, LaToya A.; Lehr, Melissa A.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine parameters affecting age differences in eyeblink classical conditioning in a large sample of young and middle-aged rabbits. A total of 122 rabbits of mean ages of 4 or 26 mo were tested at inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) of 600 or 750 msec in the delay or trace paradigms. Paradigm affected both age groups…

  9. Fatigue and Creep Crack Propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 in the Annealed and Aged Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Julian K. Benz; Richard N. Wright

    2013-10-01

    The crack propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 was studied under various conditions. Elevated temperature fatigue and creep-fatigue crack growth experiments were conducted at 650 and 800 degrees C under constant stress intensity (triangle K) conditions and triangular or trapezoidal waveforms at various frequencies on as-received, aged, and carburized material. Environmental conditions included both laboratory air and characteristic VHTR impure helium. As-received Alloy 617 displayed an increase in the crack growth rate (da/dN) as the frequency was decreased in air which indicated a time-dependent contribution component in fatigue crack propagation. Material aged at 650°C did not display any influence on the fatigue crack growth rates nor the increasing trend of crack growth rate with decreasing frequency even though significant microstructural evolution, including y’ (Ni3Al) after short times, occurred during aging. In contrast, carburized Alloy 617 showed an increase in crack growth rates at all frequencies tested compared to the material in the standard annealed condition. Crack growth studies under quasi-constant K (i.e. creep) conditions were also completed at 650 degrees C and a stress intensity of K = 40 MPa9 (square root)m. The results indicate that crack growth is primarily intergranular and increased creep crack growth rates exist in the impure helium environment when compared to the results in laboratory air. Furthermore, the propagation rates (da/dt) continually increased for the duration of the creep crack growth either due to material aging or evolution of a crack tip creep zone. Finally, fatigue crack propagation tests at 800 degrees C on annealed Alloy 617 indicated that crack propagation rates were higher in air than impure helium at the largest frequencies and lowest stress intensities. The rates in helium, however, eventually surpass the rates in air as the frequency is reduced and the stress intensity is decreased which was not observed at 650

  10. [Is it possible to "cancel" aging process of cell cultures under optimal conditions for cultivation?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozhkov, A I; Kovaleva, M K; Menzianova, N G

    2011-01-01

    The characteristics of the cells epigenotypes Dunaliella viridis Teod. in the process of chronological and replicative aging were investigated. By 40th day of accumulative cultivation (which coincided with the stationary growth phase) DNA content in the cells of Dunaliella viridis increased 2 times, triacylglycerides 3 times, beta-carotene and carbonyl proteins 2 times, RNA content decreased in comparison with cells in exponential growth phase, i. e., the 40th day of growth of culture forms the age-related epigenotype. 4 received subcultures were being transplanted during 2 years in mid-logarithmic growth phase (subculture-10), early stationary phase of growth (subculture-20), in the mid-stationary growth phase (subculture-30), and late stationary growth phase (subculture-40). It is shown that epigenotype of subculture-10 remained unchanged over 2 years of cultivation, i. e., it does not manifest replicative aging. At the same time, the subculture-20, although long enough (at least 40 passages), maintained epigenotype characteristic of young cultures, and showed age-related changes. Pronounced age-dependent changes of epigenotype in the course of cultivation were identified for subculture-30, and subculture-40 was characterized by unstable epigenotype. Thus, cultivation conditions determine the intensity of replicative aging in Dunaliella viridis.

  11. [Is it possible to "cancel" aging process of cell cultures under optimal conditions for cultivation?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozhkov, A I; Kovaleva, M K; Menzianova, N G

    2011-01-01

    The characteristics of the cells epigenotypes Dunaliella viridis Teod. in the process of chronological and replicative aging were investigated. By 40th day of accumulative cultivation (which coincided with the stationary growth phase) DNA content in the cells of Dunaliella viridis increased 2 times, triacylglycerides 3 times, beta-carotene and carbonyl proteins 2 times, RNA content decreased in comparison with cells in exponential growth phase, i. e., the 40th day of growth of culture forms the age-related epigenotype. 4 received subcultures were being transplanted during 2 years in mid-logarithmic growth phase (subculture-10), early stationary phase of growth (subculture-20), in the mid-stationary growth phase (subculture-30), and late stationary growth phase (subculture-40). It is shown that epigenotype of subculture-10 remained unchanged over 2 years of cultivation, i. e., it does not manifest replicative aging. At the same time, the subculture-20, although long enough (at least 40 passages), maintained epigenotype characteristic of young cultures, and showed age-related changes. Pronounced age-dependent changes of epigenotype in the course of cultivation were identified for subculture-30, and subculture-40 was characterized by unstable epigenotype. Thus, cultivation conditions determine the intensity of replicative aging in Dunaliella viridis. PMID:21809617

  12. Stochastic Programming with Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Andrieu, Laetitia; Vázquez-Abad, Felisa

    2007-01-01

    In this work we study optimization problems subject to a failure constraint. This constraint is expressed in terms of a condition that causes failure, representing a physical or technical breakdown. We formulate the problem in terms of a probability constraint, where the level of "confidence" is a modelling parameter and has the interpretation that the probability of failure should not exceed that level. Application of the stochastic Arrow-Hurwicz algorithm poses two difficulties: one is structural and arises from the lack of convexity of the probability constraint, and the other is the estimation of the gradient of the probability constraint. We develop two gradient estimators with decreasing bias via a convolution method and a finite difference technique, respectively, and we provide a full analysis of convergence of the algorithms. Convergence results are used to tune the parameters of the numerical algorithms in order to achieve best convergence rates, and numerical results are included via an example of ...

  13. Climatic conditions for modelling the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the ice age cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Abe-Ouchi, A; Segawa, T.; Saito, F

    2007-01-01

    The ice sheet-climate interaction as well as the climatic response to orbital parameters and atmospheric CO2 content are examined in order to drive an ice sheet model throughout an ice age cycle. Feedback processes between ice sheet and atmosphere are analyzed by numerical experiments using a high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) under different conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum. Among the proposed processes, the ice albedo feedback, the elevation-mass ba...

  14. RETIREMENT AND DRUG ABUSE: THE CONDITIONING ROLE OF AGE AND RETIREMENT TRAJECTORY1

    OpenAIRE

    BACHARACH, SAMUEL; Bamberger, Peter A.; Sonnenstuhl, William J.; Vashdi, Dana

    2008-01-01

    Although recent research on the link between retirement and drinking behavior among older adults suggests that retirement may also serve as a risk factor for drug abuse, the latter association has yet to be subject to rigorous research. We examined this association, as well as the possible conditioning effects of age and retirement trajectory, using a sample of 994 retirement-eligible workers (some having retired, others deferring their retirement) from 3 blue collar employment sectors: (e.g....

  15. Age-dependent effects of conditioning on cholinergic and vasopressin systems in the rat suprachiasmatic nucleus

    OpenAIRE

    Biemans, BAM; Van der Zee, EA; Daan, S.

    2003-01-01

    Active shock avoidance was used to explore the impact of behavioural stimulation on the neurochemistry of the suprachiasmatic nucleus. We have found previously that the expression of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors in the suprachiasmatic nucleus of young rats was significantly enhanced 24 hours after fear conditioning. Here, we investigated whether this observation is age-dependent. We used 26 month-old Wistar rats with a deteriorated circadian system, and compared them with young rats (4 ...

  16. Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, YoungJin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited b...

  17. Ageing and durability of concrete in lab and in field conditions: investigation of chloride penetration

    OpenAIRE

    BAROGHEL BOUNY, Véronique; DIERKENS, Michaël; WANG, X; SOIVE, A; SAILLIO, Mickael; THIERY, Mickaël; THAUVIN, B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term studies under various natural exposure conditions are still needed in order to understand and quantify ageing and durability of concrete structures, in particular in the case of mixtures which incorporate supplementary cementitious materials (e.g. fly ash). With this purpose, a large-scale and long-term experimental program was initiated a lot of years ago by the LPC network within the framework of the French national project 'BHP 2000'. From then, further researches have been carri...

  18. Critical effect of aging condition on mesostructural ordering in mesoporous titania thin film

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oveisi, Hamid [World Premier International (WPI) Research Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics (MANA), National Institute for Materials Science - NIMS, 1-1 Namiki, Tsukuba 305-0044 (Japan); Center of Excellence in Advanced Materials and Processing, Department of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak, Tehran 16844 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Suzuki, Norihiro; Nemoto, Yoshihiro; Srinivasu, Pavuluri [World Premier International (WPI) Research Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics (MANA), National Institute for Materials Science - NIMS, 1-1 Namiki, Tsukuba 305-0044 (Japan); Beitollahi, Ali [Center of Excellence in Advanced Materials and Processing, Department of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak, Tehran 16844 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamauchi, Yusuke, E-mail: Yamauchi.Yusuke@nims.go.j [World Premier International (WPI) Research Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics (MANA), National Institute for Materials Science - NIMS, 1-1 Namiki, Tsukuba 305-0044 (Japan); Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology (PRESTO), Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012 (Japan)

    2010-09-30

    Here we demonstrate facile synthesis method for formation of highly ordered mesoporous cubic Im-3 m titania thin film. The mesostructural ordering is strongly dependent on the aging condition after the spin-coating. The aging condition under low temperature and low humidity is found as an optimum condition for achieving highly ordered mesostructure in titania thin films. The effects of other important synthetic parameters, such as pH of the precursor solutions and aging periods, on the mesostructural ordering are carefully examined. After the calcination, continuous mesoporous films with partially crystallized frameworks are formed without any cracks. The mesostructure of the calcined films is formed by thermal shrinkage of the original Im-3 m mesostructure. The mesostructural change in the films calcined at various temperatures are studied by using the grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GI-SAXS). The GI-SAXS patterns show the strong shrinkage along the perpendicular direction to the substrate by increasing the calcination temperature.

  19. Effects of aging on whole body and segmental control while obstacle crossing under impaired sensory conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Alison C; Deshpande, Nandini

    2014-06-01

    The ability to safely negotiate obstacles is an important component of independent mobility, requiring adaptive locomotor responses to maintain dynamic balance. This study examined the effects of aging and visual-vestibular interactions on whole-body and segmental control during obstacle crossing. Twelve young and 15 older adults walked along a straight pathway and stepped over one obstacle placed in their path. The task was completed under 4 conditions which included intact or blurred vision, and intact or perturbed vestibular information using galvanic vestibular stimulation (GVS). Global task performance significantly increased under suboptimal vision conditions. Vision also significantly influenced medial-lateral center of mass displacement, irrespective of age and GVS. Older adults demonstrated significantly greater trunk pitch and head roll angles under suboptimal vision conditions. Similar to whole-body control, no GVS effect was found for any measures of segmental control. The results indicate a significant reliance on visual but not vestibular information for locomotor control during obstacle crossing. The lack of differences in GVS effects suggests that vestibular information is not up-regulated for obstacle avoidance. This is not differentially affected by aging. In older adults, insufficient visual input appears to affect ability to minimize anterior-posterior trunk movement despite a slower obstacle crossing time and walking speed. Combined with larger medial-lateral deviation of the body COM with insufficient visual information, the older adults may be at a greater risk for imbalance or inability to recover from a possible trip when stepping over an obstacle. PMID:24746603

  20. The Logic of Parametric Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Joseph W

    2012-01-01

    The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the probabilities of logical propositions. An alternative direct probability encoding scheme is presented, which allows statements of implication and quantification to be modeled directly as constraints on conditional probabilities. Several example problems are solved, from Johnson-Laird's aces to Smullyan's zombies. Many apparently challenging problems in logic turn out to be simple problems in algebra and computer science; often just systems of polynomial equations or linear optimization problems. This work extends the mathematical logic and parametric probability methods invented by George Boole.

  1. The Use of Positive Matrix Factorization with Conditional Probability Functions in Air Quality Studies: An Application to Hydrocarbon Emissions in Houston, Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, YuLong; Berkowitz, Carl M.

    2006-06-01

    As part of a study to identify groups of compounds (‘source categories’) associated with different processing facilities, a multivariate receptor model called Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) was applied to hourly average concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured at five Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) located near the Ship Channel in Houston, Texas. The observations were made between June and October, 2003, and limited to nighttime measurements (21:00 pm – 6:00 am) in order to remove the complexity of photochemical processing and associated changes in the concentrations of primary and secondary VOCs. Six to eight volatile organic compounds source categories were identified for the five Ship Channel sites. The dominant source categories were found to be those associated with petrochemical, chemical industries and fuel evaporation. In contrast, source categories associated with on-road vehicles were found to be relatively insignificant. Although evidence of biogenic emissions was found at almost all the sites, this broad category was significant only at the Wallisville site, which was also the site furthest away from the Ship Channels area and closest to the northeast forest of Texas. Natural gas, accumulation and fuel evaporation sources were found to contribute most to the ambient VOCs, followed by the petrochemical emission of highly reactive ethene and propylene. Solvent / paint industry and fuel evaporation and emission from refineries were next in importance while the on-road vehicle exhaust generally contributed less than 10% of the total ambient VOCs. Specific geographic areas associated with each source category were identified through the use of a Conditional Probability Function (CPF) analysis that related elevated concentrations of key VOCs in each category to a network of grids superimposed on the source inventories of the VOCs.

  2. Extending employment beyond the pensionable age: a cohort study of the influence of chronic diseases, health risk factors, and working conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianna Virtanen

    Full Text Available In response to the economic consequences of ageing of the population, governments are seeking ways with which people might work into older age. We examined the association of working conditions and health with extended employment (defined as >6 months beyond the pensionable age in a cohort of older, non-disabled employees who have reached old-age retirement.A total of 4,677 Finnish employees who reached their old-age pensionable date between 2005 and 2011 (mean age 59.8 years in 2005, 73% women had their survey responses before pensionable age linked to national health and pension registers, resulting in a prospective cohort study.In all, 832 participants (17.8% extended their employment by more than 6 months beyond the pensionable date. After multivariable adjustment, the following factors were associated with extended employment: absence of diagnosed mental disorder (OR 1.25, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.54 and psychological distress (OR 1.68; 1.35-2.08 and of the work characteristics, high work time control (OR 2.31; 1.88-2.84. The projected probability of extended employment was 21.3% (19.5-23.1 among those free of psychiatric morbidity and with high work time control, while the corresponding probability was only 9.2% (7.4-11.4 among those with both psychiatric morbidity and poor work time control. The contribution of chronic somatic diseases was modest.In the present study, good mental health in combination with the opportunity to control work time seem to be key factors in extended employment into older age. In addition, high work time control might promote work life participation irrespective of employees' somatic disease status.

  3. RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕恩琳; 钟佑明

    2003-01-01

    Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.

  4. Age-Associated Skin Conditions and Diseases: Current Perspectives and Future Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan; Sterry, Wolfram; Hodin, Michael W; Griffiths, Tamara W; Watson, Rachel E B; Hay, Roderick J; Griffiths, Christopher E M

    2016-04-01

    The International League of Dermatological Societies (ILDS), a global, not-for-profit organization representing 157 dermatological societies worldwide, has identified the consequences of skin aging as one of the most important grand challenges in global skin health. Reduced functional capacity and increased susceptibility of the skin with development of dermatoses such as dry skin, itching, ulcers, dyspigmentation, wrinkles, fungal infections, as well as benign and malignant tumors are the most common skin conditions in aged populations worldwide. Environmental (e.g., pollution) and lifestyle factors (e.g., smoking, sunbed use) negatively affect skin health. In turn altered appearance, dry skin, chronic wounds, and other conditions decrease general health and reduce the likelihood for healthy and active aging. Preventive skin care includes primary, secondary, and tertiary interventions. Continuous sun protection from early childhood onward is most important, to avoid extrinsic skin damage and skin cancer. Exposure to irritants, allergens, or other molecules damaging the skin must be avoided or reduced to a minimum. Public health approaches are needed to implement preventive and basic skin care worldwide to reach high numbers of dermatological patients and care receivers. Education of primary caregivers and implementation of community dermatology are successful strategies in resource-poor countries. Besides specialist physicians, nurses and other health care professionals play important roles in preventing and managing age-related skin conditions in developing as well as in developed countries. Healthy skin across the life course leads to better mental and emotional health, positive impact on social engagement, and healthier, more active, and productive lives. PMID:26994263

  5. 基于条件概率的短时睡眠状态实时估计%Sleep level estimation based on conditional probability for nap

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王蓓; 张俊民; 张涛; 王行愚

    2015-01-01

    目的:根据脑电信号的特征,提出基于条件概率的睡眠状态实时估计方法,为睡眠监测提供反映睡眠状态连续变化的客观评价依据。方法在白天短时睡眠过程中,同步采集了4导与睡眠相关的脑电信号( C3-A2,C4-A1,O1-A2,O2-A1),对每5秒记录数据进行傅里叶变换,分别计算了8~13 Hz和2~7 Hz 的脑电节律能量占空比特征参数。主要方法包含了学习和测试两个阶段:在学习阶段,根据训练数据获得脑电特征参数的概率密度分布;在测试阶段,根据当前特征,得到各睡眠分期的条件概率,并计算获得睡眠状态的估计值。结果分析和测试了12名受试者的短时睡眠数据。通过与睡眠分期的人工判读结果相比较,睡眠状态估计值呈现了睡眠深度的连续变化。觉醒期的显著性差异为2.94,睡眠一期和二期分别为1.78和1.62,分析结果符合实际规律。结论本文所定义的睡眠状态估计值蕴含了睡眠分期的特征,较好地反映了睡眠阶段在持续和过渡期间的连续变化过程,能够为白天短时睡眠状态分析提供实时监测和分析的客观评价依据。%Objective According to the characteristics of electroencephalograph( EEG),an automatic sleep level estimation method based on conditional probability is developed. The ultimate purpose is to obtain and realize the real-time sleep level evaluation. Methods There are 4 EEG channels(O2 -A1 ,O1 -A2 ,C4 -A1 , C3 -A2 )recorded during nap. For every 5-second data,two characteristic parameters of ratio of EEG rhythms (8-13 Hz,2-7 Hz)are calculated after fast Fourier transformation(FFT). The main method consists of two models:learning and testing. During the learning stage,the probability density functions of EEG parameters are obtained based on the training data. During the testing stage,the sleep level is estimated based on the conditional probability of sleep stages. Results The

  6. Nanosized titanium dioxide influences copper-induced toxicity during aging as a function of environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Seitz, Frank; Haigis, Ann-Cathrin; Höger, Johanna; Zubrod, Jochen P; Schulz, Ralf; Bundschuh, Mirco

    2016-07-01

    Titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2 -NPs) adsorb co-occurring heavy metals in surface waters, modulating their toxicity for freshwater invertebrates. The processes triggering this interaction may be influenced by several environmental parameters; however, their relative importance remains unclear. The present study assessed the implications of aging on the joint acute toxicity of copper (Cu) and TiO2 -NPs for Daphnia magna over a duration of up to 72 h. The influences of aging duration as well as ionic strength, pH, and presence of different qualities of organic matter during aging were assessed. The results indicated that the presence of TiO2 -NPs often reduced the Cu-induced toxicity for daphnids after aging (albeit with varying extent), which was displayed by up to 3-fold higher EC50 (50% effective concentration) values compared to the absence of TiO2 -NPs. Moreover, the Cu speciation, influenced by the ionic composition and the pH as well as the presence of organic additives in the medium, strongly modulated the processes during aging, with partly limited implications of the aging duration on the ecotoxicological response of D. magna. Nonetheless, the present study underpins the potential of TiO2 -NPs to modify toxicity induced by heavy metals in freshwater ecosystems under various environmental conditions. This pattern, however, needs further verification using heavy metal ions with differing properties in combination with further environmental factors, such as ultraviolet irradiation. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1766-1774. © 2015 SETAC. PMID:26640248

  7. Mechanical and structural characterization of tibial prosthetic interfaces before and after aging under simulated service conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavaco, A; Ramalho, A; Pais, S; Durães, L

    2015-03-01

    Prosthesis interface is one of the most important components to promote individual׳s health and comfort, as it establishes direct contact with the skin and transfers loads generated during gait. The aim of this study was to mechanically characterize, three commercial interfaces (block copolymer, silicone gel and silicone elestomer), under static and dynamic conditions, before and after undergoing a process of chemical aging in synthetic sweat for periods up to 90 days. Static mechanical compression tests were performed on the materials, as well as fatigue tests to assess their static and dynamic mechanical behaviors, respectively. For the second, a sinusoidal load was applied with an appropriate range of deformation for each material. Several analytical techniques were also used to characterize the materials, namely Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and morphology characterization by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). All the tested materials have strong viscoelastic behavior, showing a linear response for small deformations, followed by a nonlinear behavior for higher deformation. The block copolymer and the silicone gel are affected by aging in synthetic sweat in a similar way, with a significant increase of their rigidity after 30 days, followed by a progressive reduction. The silicone elastomer displays a continuous increase of rigidity along the 90 days of storage, being the most sensitive to aging affects. It also exhibits the lowest stiffness value, being suitable for uses that require maximum comfort. All materials demonstrate chemical and structural stability under service simulated conditions. PMID:25554916

  8. Conditions of life and climacteric in middle aged women in a health area of Sancti Spiritus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Esther de la Torre Cárdenas

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A climacteric is one of the difficult steps in women life in which a particular attention is needed by the doctor and a big comprehension from the social point of view. A retrospective descriptive study was made in the South Area Polyclinic of Sancti Spiritus Municipality, period january – april 2007, with a female population having between 45 -59 years of age from 8 family medical clinics, 4 belonging to the urban area and 4 to the rural one (191 in total, including all which referred to present any disorder with the menstrual cycle due to excess or defect in the 6 months previous to interview (165 in total with the objective to evaluate the relation between conditions of life and the frequency; criticality and morbidity associated with menopause syndrome. Life conditions, kind of work, kind of activity carried out and associated pathologies are the factors that according to the study influence in frequency, criticality and morbidity associated with menopause syndrome in middle aged women and the overhead given by the conditioning of gender, favored the appearance of symptoms such as hot, depression, anxiety, tachycardia and vaginal dryness.

  9. Compared Ageing of Oil from Curcubitea Pepo in Two Different Storage Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.H.W. Nakavoua

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the oil pumkin seeds of Curcubitea pepo from Congo- Brazzaville. The ageing of oil extracted from the seeds of the pumpkin Curcubitea pepo stored at two temperatures (6 and 30ºC was monitored during storage for 11 months by comparison of physical and chemical characteristics correlated with spectroscopic data. Medium infrared spectroscopy confirmed saponification index data. Ultraviolet absorption confirmed peroxide index data. Antioxidant behaviour was monitored by fluorescence and the effect of ageing on the two major fatty acid families was analysed by a study of chemical composition correlated with differential scanning calorimetry measurements. This study showed an overall lengthening of the fatty acid carbon chains and allowed preferential storage conditions to be specified for this oil.

  10. Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.; Zaks, Michael A.

    2016-09-01

    We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples of subdiffusive tracer motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We perform extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e., at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties, which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell and is absent in classical models based on continuous-time random walks with no dynamics in the trapped state.

  11. Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

    CERN Document Server

    Pöschke, Patrick; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A; Zaks, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples for subdiffusive tracer's motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer's motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We have performed extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions, and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e. at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell, and is absent in classical models based on continuous time random walks (CTRW) with no dynamics in the trapped state.

  12. Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, Youngjin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae

    2015-09-01

    In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited by all 3 extracts at 100 µg/mL in 60 min, partial inhibition (50-70%) was achieved only by WRPE-EtOH and WRPE-enzyme at 50 µg/mL. High concentrations (≥250 µg/mL) of all 3 extracts markedly inhibited the elastase activity. However, at low concentrations (15.6-125 µg/mL), only WRPE-EtOH inhibited the enzyme activity. Notably, WRPE-EtOH was superior to WRPE-enzyme and WRPE-HTHP in the inhibition of tyrosinase. WRPE-EtOH significantly inhibited the enzyme activity from 31.2 µM, reaching 80% inhibition at 125 µM. In addition to its strong antioxidative activity, the ethanol extract of white rose petals was confirmed to be effective in inhibiting skin aging-related enzymes. Therefore, it is suggested that WRPE-EtOH could be a good candidate for the improvement of skin aging such as wrinkle formation and pigmentation.

  13. Diet and weaning age affect the growth and condition of Dover sole (Solea solea L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of diet type (frozen Artemia biomass and two inert diets: micro-bound [MB] and micro-extruded [ME] and two weaning ages (early weaning and late weaning, 50 and 64 days after hatching, respectively were studied in Solea solea larvae. The experiment lasted 56 and 42 days for early and late weaning, respectively. The mortality results showed the highest values for late weaning (39% in the Artemia treatment. No significant differences in mortality were observed between the inert diets. The final dry weight values were higher for late weaning than for early weaning. At both weaning ages, fish receiving the same treatments had similar tendencies for dry weight and standard length. Fish fed with MB presented significantly higher dry weight and standard length, followed by ME, while the lowest values at both weaning ages were recorded for the Artemia treatment. Similar amounts of highly unsaturated fatty acid fractions among the inert diets were reflected by the absence of significant differences in the susceptibility to oxidation (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances testing; however, significant differences were found in carbohydrate, protein and lipid contents of whole-body homogenates for both early and late weaning. At the end of the experiment no significant differences in biochemical contents were observed between the two inert diets. The results of this study suggest that weaning starting on day 50 (early weaning, using a good quality inert diet, leads to higher survival, growth and fish condition.

  14. Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, Youngjin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae

    2015-09-01

    In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited by all 3 extracts at 100 µg/mL in 60 min, partial inhibition (50-70%) was achieved only by WRPE-EtOH and WRPE-enzyme at 50 µg/mL. High concentrations (≥250 µg/mL) of all 3 extracts markedly inhibited the elastase activity. However, at low concentrations (15.6-125 µg/mL), only WRPE-EtOH inhibited the enzyme activity. Notably, WRPE-EtOH was superior to WRPE-enzyme and WRPE-HTHP in the inhibition of tyrosinase. WRPE-EtOH significantly inhibited the enzyme activity from 31.2 µM, reaching 80% inhibition at 125 µM. In addition to its strong antioxidative activity, the ethanol extract of white rose petals was confirmed to be effective in inhibiting skin aging-related enzymes. Therefore, it is suggested that WRPE-EtOH could be a good candidate for the improvement of skin aging such as wrinkle formation and pigmentation. PMID:26472968

  15. Adult hippocampal neurogenesis inversely correlates with microglia in conditions of voluntary running and aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebara, Elias; Sultan, Sebastien; Kocher-Braissant, Jacqueline; Toni, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus (DG) and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the DG was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.

  16. Adult hippocampal neurogenesis inversely correlates with microglia in conditions of voluntary running and aging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elias Georges Gebara

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the dentate gyrus was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.

  17. Nutritional condition of school age children. Clinic, anthropo-medical and alimentary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Esther González Hermida

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: the study of children´s growth in an appropriate indicator of children health condition and should be used as one of the basis in the practice of preventive medicine. Objective: to determine the nutritional al condition of children of third and sixth grade of elementary schools of Health Area V of Cienfuegos Municipality. Methods: descriptive, observational, cross-sectional and relational study of 445 school age children from 4 elementary schools. A clinic assessment was carried out along with an anthropo-medical evaluation. A qualitative survey was developed to assess the frequency of consumption of different alimentary groups. Results: the relation weight/height in the two genders presents a prevalence of normal weight; undernourishment is more common among females, overweight is more usual among boys and obesity can be found in both genders. The variable weight/age showed one bad-nutrition (for defect among females, there was a prevalence of bad-nutrition for excess in both genders. There were no children with height under the third percentile, with prevalence of boys and girls tall and very tall. Bronchial asthma was the most common disease. Conclusions: Food consumption in general, taking into account frequency and kind of food, is not the appropriate. There is a relation between positive clinical findings and the anthropometric assessment of weight/height.

  18. Intelligibility of foreign-accented speech: Effects of listening condition, listener age, and listener hearing status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Sarah Hargus

    2005-09-01

    It is well known that, for listeners with normal hearing, speech produced by non-native speakers of the listener's first language is less intelligible than speech produced by native speakers. Intelligibility is well correlated with listener's ratings of talker comprehensibility and accentedness, which have been shown to be related to several talker factors, including age of second language acquisition and level of similarity between the talker's native and second language phoneme inventories. Relatively few studies have focused on factors extrinsic to the talker. The current project explored the effects of listener and environmental factors on the intelligibility of foreign-accented speech. Specifically, monosyllabic English words previously recorded from two talkers, one a native speaker of American English and the other a native speaker of Spanish, were presented to three groups of listeners (young listeners with normal hearing, elderly listeners with normal hearing, and elderly listeners with hearing impairment; n=20 each) in three different listening conditions (undistorted words in quiet, undistorted words in 12-talker babble, and filtered words in quiet). Data analysis will focus on interactions between talker accent, listener age, listener hearing status, and listening condition. [Project supported by American Speech-Language-Hearing Association AARC Award.

  19. 26 CFR 1.410(a)-4 - Maximum age conditions and time of participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... more than 5 years before normal retirement age (within the meaning of section 411(a)(8) and § 1.411(a... at such time the employee is less than age 60. The normal retirement age under the plan is age 65...). Example 2. A defined benefit plan provides a normal retirement age of the later of age 65 or completion...

  20. Cable aging and condition monitoring of radiation resistant nano-dielectrics in advanced reactor applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duckworth, Robert C [ORNL; Aytug, Tolga [ORNL; Paranthaman, Mariappan Parans [ORNL; Kidder, Michelle [ORNL; Polyzos, Georgios [ORNL; Leonard, Keith J [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) nanocomposites have been developed in an effort to improve cable insulation lifetime to serve in both instrument cables and auxiliary power systems in advanced reactor applications as well as to provide an alternative for new or retro-fit cable insulation installations. Nano-dielectrics composed of different weight percentages of MgO & SiO2 have been subjected to radiation at accumulated doses approaching 20 MRad and thermal aging temperatures exceeding 100 C. Depending on the composition, the performance of the nanodielectric insulation was influenced, both positively and negatively, when quantified with respect to its electrical and mechanical properties. For virgin unradiated or thermally aged samples, XLPE nanocomposites with 1wt.% SiO2 showed improvement in breakdown strength and reduction in its dissipation factor when compared to pure undoped XLPE, while XLPE 3wt.% SiO2 resulted in lower breakdown strength. When aged in air at 120 C, retention of electrical breakdown strength and dissipation factor was observed for XLPE 3wt.% MgO nanocomposites. Irrespective of the nanoparticle species, XLPE nanocomposites that were gamma irradiated up to the accumulated dose of 18 MRad showed a significant drop in breakdown strength especially for particle concentrations greater than 3 wt.%. Additional attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy measurements suggest changes in the structure of the XLPE SiO2 nanocomposites associated with the interaction of silicon and oxygen. Discussion on the relevance of property changes with respect to cable aging and condition monitoring is presented.

  1. Characteristics of Adults with Down Syndrome: prevalence of age-related conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo eCarfì

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. In the last decades, life expectancy of persons with Down syndrome (DS has dramatically increased and it is estimated that they will be living as long as the general population within a generation. Despite being included among the progeroid syndromes, because of the presence of features typically observed in older adults, DS is still regarded as a disease of pediatric interest. Because limited knowledge is available on the clinical characteristics of adults with DS, this study aimed to assess clinical and non-clinical features of this population and to describe similarities to the geriatric population. Methods. In this study, we described 60 adults with DS evaluated at the Day Hospital of the Geriatric Department of the Policlinico A. Gemelli, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Rome. Individuals were assessed through a standardized protocol. Results. The mean age of study participants was 38 years (range, 18 to 58 years and 42 (70.0% were women. Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent: severe cognitive impairment was diagnosed in 39 (65.0% participants, behavioral symptoms were present in 25 (41.7% and functional impairment in 23 (38.3%. Six (10.0% participants lived in institutions and 11 (18.3% were diagnosed as obese. The mean number of drugs used was 2.4; use of psychotropic drugs was highly prevalent. The most common chronic diseases were thyroid problems (44, 73.3%, followed by mood disorders (19, 31.7%, osteoporosis (18, 30.0% and cardiac problems (10, 16.7%. Geriatric conditions and chronic diseases were more prevalent among participants aged ≥40 years. Conclusions. Several similarities between older adults and adults with DS were observed. Comorbidities, geriatric conditions, cognitive and functional deficits and social problems are highly prevalent in both populations, contributing to the high complexity of these patients’ assessment and treatment.

  2. Effects of Acclimation on Poststocking Dispersal and Physiological Condition of Age-1 Pallid Sturgeon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Eric W.; Guy, Christopher S.; Cureton, Eli S.; Webb, Molly H.; Gardner, William M.

    2011-03-28

    A propagation program for pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the upper Missouri River was implemented by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1997. Preliminary research indicated that many hatchery-reared pallid sturgeon were experiencing significant downstream poststocking dispersal, negatively affecting their recruitment. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of acclimation to flow and site-specific physicochemical water conditions on poststocking dispersal and physiological condition of age-1 pallid sturgeon. Fish from three acclimation treatments were radio-tagged, released at two locations (Missouri River and Marias River), and monitored using passive telemetry stations. Marias treatment was acclimated to flow and site-specific physicochemical conditions, Bozeman treatment was acclimated to flow only, and traditional treatment had no acclimation (reared under traditional protocol). During both years fish released in the Missouri River dispersed less than fish released in the Marias River. In 2005, Marias treatment dispersed less and nearly twice as many fish remained in the Missouri River reach than traditional treatment. In 2006, pallid sturgeon dispersed similarly among treatments and fish remaining in the Missouri River reach were similar among all treatments. Differences in poststocking dispersal between years may be related to fin curl. Fin curl was present in all fish in 2005 and 27% of the fish in 2006. Pallid sturgeon from all treatments in both years had a greater affinity for the lower reaches of the Missouri River than the upper reaches. Thus, habitat at release site influenced poststocking dispersal more than acclimation treatment. No difference was observed in relative growth rate among treatments in 2006. However, acclimation to flow (i.e., exercise conditioning) may reduce liver fat content. Acclimation conditions used in this study may not benefit pallid sturgeon unless physiological maladies are present

  3. Effects of acclimation on poststocking dispersal and physiological condition of age-1 pallid sturgeon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldenburg, E.W.; Guy, C.S.; Cureton, E.S.; Webb, M.A.H.; Gardner, W.M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of acclimation to flow and site-specific physicochemical water conditions on poststocking dispersal and physiological condition of age-1 hatchery-reared pallid sturgeon. Fish from three acclimation treatments were radio-tagged, released at two locations (Missouri River and Marias River), and monitored using passive telemetry stations. Marias treatment was acclimated to flow and site-specific physicochemical conditions, Bozeman treatment was acclimated to flow only, and controls had no acclimation (reared under traditional conservation propagation protocol). During both years, fish released in the Missouri River dispersed less than fish released in the Marias River. In 2005, Marias treatment dispersed less and nearly twice as many fish remained in the Missouri River reach as compared to control fish. In 2006, pallid sturgeon dispersed similarly among treatments and the number of fish remaining in the Missouri River reach was similar among all treatments. Differences in poststocking dispersal between years were related to fin curl which was present in all fish in 2005 and only 26% in 2006. Pallid sturgeon from all treatments in both years had a greater affinity for the lower reaches of the Missouri River than the upper reaches. Thus, release site influenced poststocking dispersal more than acclimation treatment. No difference was observed in relative growth rate among treatments. However, acclimation to flow (i.e., exercise conditioning) prevented fat accumulation from rupturing hepatocytes. Acclimation conditions used in this study did not benefit pallid sturgeon unless physiological maladies were present. Overriding all treatment effects was stocking location; thus, natural resource agencies need to consider stocking location carefully to reduce poststocking dispersal. ?? 2011 Blackwell Verlag, Berlin.

  4. Physical aging and structural recovery in a colloidal glass subjected to volume-fraction jump conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiaoguang; McKenna, Gregory B

    2016-04-01

    Three important kinetic phenomena have been cataloged by Kovacs in the investigation of molecular glasses during structural recovery or physical aging. These are responses to temperature-jump histories referred to as intrinsic isotherms, asymmetry of approach, and memory effect. Here we use a thermosensitive polystyrene-poly (N-isopropylacrylamide)-poly (acrylic acid) core-shell particle-based dispersion as a colloidal model and by working at a constant number concentration of particles we use temperature changes to create volume-fraction changes. This imposes conditions similar to those defined by Kovacs on the colloidal system. We use creep experiments to probe the physical aging and structural recovery behavior of colloidal glasses in the Kovacs-type histories and compare the results with those seen in molecular glasses. We find that there are similarities in aging dynamics between molecular glasses and colloidal glasses, but differences also persist. For the intrinsic isotherms, the times t_{eq} needed for relaxing or evolving into the equilibrium (or stationary) state are relatively insensitive to the volume fraction and the values of t_{eq} are longer than the α-relaxation time τ_{α} at the same volume fraction. On the other hand, both of these times grow at least exponentially with decreasing temperature in molecular glasses. For the asymmetry of approach, similar nonlinear behavior is observed for both colloidal and molecular glasses. However, the equilibration time t_{eq} is the same for both volume-fraction up-jump and down-jump experiments, different from the finding in molecular glasses that it takes longer for the structure to evolve into equilibrium for the temperature up-jump condition than for the temperature down-jump condition. For the two-step volume-fraction jumps, a memory response is observed that is different from observations of structural recovery in two-step temperature histories in molecular glasses. The concentration dependence of the

  5. Effects of age, exercise duration and test conditions on heart rate variability in young endurance horses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed YOUNES

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Although cardiac recovery is an important criterion for ranking horses in endurance competitions, heart rate variability (HRV has hardly ever been studied in the context of this equestrian discipline. In the present study, we sought to determine whether HRV is affected by parameters such as age, exercise duration and test site. Accordingly, HRV might be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac recovery. The main objective of the present study was to determine the effects of age, exercise duration and test site on HRV variables at rest and during exercise and recovery in young Arabian endurance horses. Over a three-year period, 77 young Arabian horses aged 4 to 6 years performed one or more exercise tests (consisting of a warm-up, cantering at 22 km.h-1and a final 500 m gallop at full speed at four different sites. Beat-to-beat RR intervals were continuously recorded and then analyzed (using a time-frequency approach to determine the instantaneous HRV components before, during and after the test. At rest, the root-mean-square of successive differences in RR intervals (RMSSD was higher in the 4-year-olds (54.4±14.5 ms than in the 5-or 6-year-olds (44.9±15.5 and 49.1± 11.7 ms, respectively. During the first 15 minutes of exercise (period T, the heart rate (HR and RMSSD decreased with age. In 6-year-olds, RMSSD decreased as the exercise duration increased (T: 3.0±1.4 vs. 2T: 3.6±2.2 vs. 3T: 2.8±1.0. During recovery, RMSSD was negatively correlated with the cardiac recovery time and the recovery heart rate (R= - 0.56 and -0.53 respectively; p<0.05. At rest and during exercise and recovery, RMSSD and several HRV variables differed significantly as a function of the test conditions. HRV in endurance horses appears to be strongly influenced by age and environmental factors (such as ambient temperature, ambient humidity and track quality. Nevertheless, RMSSD can be used to select endurance horses with the fastest cardiac recovery.

  6. FIELD PEA (PISUM SATIVUM L. BIOMASS PRODUCTION DEPENDED ON SEED AGE AND AGROECOLOGICAL GROWTH CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Rapčan

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Influence of weather conditions and seed age on fresh and dry biomass production, field germination, seed yield and 1000 seed weight of field pea were investigated in field trials during two years at two locations of East Croatia (Osijek and Vinkovci. Seed of „Timo“ cultivar 9 and 21 month old was used for sowing. In the investigation of the years influence, significantly higher (p=0.01 average green mass yield (57,035 t/ha, dry matter yield (9.796 t/ha and 1000 seed weight (129.7 g was found in the first year of the investigation. On the average for years, significantly higher field germination (87.0% and seed yield (2.173 t/ha at p=0.01, and green mass yield (55.728 t/ha and 1000 seed weight (130.1 g at p=0.05 were found at location Osijek. Seed of 21 month old had higher (p=0.01 average green mass yield (64.376 t/ha, dry matter yield (10.934 t/ha and 1000 seed weight (134 g but significantly lower field germination (76.4% at location Vinkovci in the investigation of seed age and location influences during 2005 year..

  7. Does the gestation age of newborn babies influence the ultrasonic assessment of hip condition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simić Slavica

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Ultrasound represents a method of examination of hips of newborn babies capable of defining hip condition and distinguishing stable and unstable hips based on morphological elements. It is accepted in a large number of countries as a method of examination of high risk newborns, or as a method of systematic screening. Objective. The objective of this study was to investigate correlation between ultrasonically estimated hip maturity and respective gestation maturity both in premature and term-born babies, and to investigate the influence of different delivery types on hips condition. Methods. In our study 2045 patients, 1141 males and 904 females, were examined in at the Institute of Neonatology over a period of 5 years. The average age was 34.04 gestation weeks. There were significantly more premature (1698 or 83.03% than term-born babies (347 or 16.97%. Ultrasound hip examination, as a screening method, was carried out according to Graf. It was followed by clinical examination. Results were analyzed by appropriate statistical methods (χ2-test, one-way ANOVA, multifactor ANOVA. Results. The overall frequency of unstable hips was 3.2%, 1.88% in males and 4.87% in females (p<0.05. 96.8% babies had stable hips, out of which 35.21% were mature and 61.59% immature. In the study of the breech presentation, out of 183 babies, unstable hips were found in 1.58% of male cases, and in 10.23% of female cases. Conclusion. Clinical screening of developmental dysplasia of the hip is insufficient for early diagnosis and decision about the treatment of premature babies. The high frequency of unstable hip type IIc (risky and IId (decentralized in premature babies requires early diagnosis and therapy. Wide swaddling for prematures should be applied up to eight months of age. Gentle manipulation is necessary while nursing and conducting physiotherapy of a premature baby.

  8. Application of the diagrams of phase transformations during aging for optimizing the aging conditions for V1469 and 1441 Al-Li alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukina, E. A.; Alekseev, A. A.; Antipov, V. V.; Zaitsev, D. V.; Klochkova, Yu. Yu.

    2009-12-01

    To describe the changes in the phase composition of alloys during aging, it is convenient to construct TTT diagrams on the temperature-aging time coordinates in which time-temperature regions of the existence of nonequilibrium phases that form during aging are indicated. As a rule, in constructing the diagrams of phase transformations during aging (DPTA), time-temperature maps of properties are plotted. A comparison of the diagrams with maps of properties allows one to analyze the effect of the structure on the properties. In this study, we analyze the DPTAs of V1469 (Al-1.2 Li-0.46 Ag-3.4 Cu-0.66 Mg) and 1441 (Al-1.8 Li-1.1 Mg-1.6 Cu, C Mg/ C Cu ≈ 1) alloys. Examples of the application of DPTA for the development of steplike aging conditions are reported.

  9. Social participation and healthy ageing: a neglected, significant protective factor for chronic non communicable conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Jennifer

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low and middle income countries are ageing at a much faster rate than richer countries, especially in Asia. This is happening at a time of globalisation, migration, urbanisation, and smaller families. Older people make significant contributions to their families and communities, but this is often undermined by chronic disease and preventable disability. Social participation can help to protect against morbidity and mortality. We argue that social participation deserves much greater attention as a protective factor, and that older people can play a useful role in the prevention and management of chronic conditions. We present, as an example, a low-cost, sustainable strategy that has increased social participation among elders in Sri Lanka. Discussion Current international policy initiatives to address the increasing prevalence of non-communicable chronic diseases are focused on cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease and cancers, responsible for much premature mortality. Interventions to modify their shared risk factors of high salt and fat diets, inactivity, smoking and alcohol use are advocated. But older people also suffer chronic conditions that primarily affect quality of life, and have a wider range of risk factors. There is strong epidemiological and physiological evidence that social isolation, in particular, is as important a risk factor for chronic diseases as the 'lifestyle' risk factors, yet it is currently neglected. There are useful experiences of inexpensive and sustainable strategies to improve social participation among older people in low and lower middle income countries. Our experience with forming Elders' Clubs with retired tea estate workers in Sri Lanka suggests many benefits, including social support and participation, inter-generational contact, a collective voice, and facilitated access to health promotion activities, and to health care and social welfare services. Summary Policies to

  10. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  11. Age-Ratios and Condition of En Route Migrant Blackpoll Warblers in the British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boal, Clint W.

    2014-01-01

    The en route migration ecology of Blackpoll Warblers (Setophaga striata) is poorly understood, yet intriguing. Blackpoll Warblers undertake the longest open water migration of any wood warbler species, traveling from northeastern North America to South America, with the first potential landfall being the West Indies. This migration requires substantial energy reserves and subjects Blackpoll Warblers to unpredictable weather events, which may influence survival. Few studies have examined age ratios or condition of Blackpoll Warblers while the warblers are en route through the Caribbean region. I captured and banded Blackpoll Warblers in the British Virgin Islands over 10 consecutive autumn migrations. Ratios of hatch-year to adult Blackpoll Warblers were variable but averaged lower than the ratios reported at continental departure locations. Average mass of Blackpoll Warblers was less than that reported at continental departure locations, with 26% of adults and 40% of hatch-year birds below the estimated fat free mass; hatch-year birds were consistently in poorer condition than adults. Blackpoll Warblers captured in the British Virgin Islands were also in poorer condition than those reported from the Dominican Republic and Barbados; this may be because of the British Virgin Islands being the first landfall after the transatlantic crossing, whereas Blackpoll Warblers arriving at the other Caribbean study locations may have had opportunities for stopover prior to arrival or have departed from farther south on the continent. However, this suggests that the British Virgin Islands likely provide important stopover habitat as a first landfall location for Blackpoll Warblers arriving from the transatlantic migration route.

  12. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  13. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  14. Age at Menarche in Schoolgirls from Tanzania in Light of Socioeconomic and Sociodemographic Conditioning

    OpenAIRE

    Rebacz, Ewa

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this study is to determine the age at menarche of girls from Tanzania examined in 2005 considering their families’ social and material status. For the purpose of the analysis of the age at menarche, N=71 girls were qualified (N=8 from Dar es Salaam and N=63 from Mafinga) out of N=98 who took part in the anthropological study. The calendar age of the girls who qualified for the determination of the age at menarche ranged from 12.9 to 22.7 years of age (X=15.9 ± 1.9). The age at men...

  15. Multiple Comorbid Conditions among Middle-Aged and Elderly Hemophilia Patients: Prevalence Estimates and Implications for Future Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aroub A. Khleif

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Advances in hemophilia care and treatment have led to increases in the life expectancy among hemophiliacs. As a result, persons with hemophilia are reaching an older age and experiencing various age-related health conditions never seen before in this population. Aim. To determine the prevalence of comorbidities among middle-aged and elderly hemophilia A and hemophilia B patients. Methods. Retrospective chart review among all hemophilia patients, who attended the Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center. Results. All patients had at least one comorbid condition other than hemophilia, and the majority had between 3 and 6 comorbidities. The most common conditions identified were chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, HIV, chronic arthropathy, and overweight/obesity. Conclusions. Since persons with comorbidities are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require greater care in managing their health needs, caring for aging hemophiliacs is likely to pose various social and economic challenges for both patients and providers.

  16. Hygienic characteristics of working conditions and their influence on biological age of women occupied in modern wallpaper industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pichugina N.N.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a complex sanitary characteristic of working conditions of women involved in wallpaper production. The main favorable factors of industrial environment have been determined. It is shown that working conditions in wallpaper production factories cause an increase in indices of biological age

  17. Subjective probability models for lifetimes

    CERN Document Server

    Spizzichino, Fabio

    2001-01-01

    Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be rethought and suitably redefined. Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes details those differences and clarifies aspects of subjective probability that have a direct influence on modeling and drawing inference from failure and survival data. In particular, within a framework of Bayesian theory, the author considers the effects of different levels of information in the analysis of the phenomena of positive and negative aging.The author coherently reviews and compares the various definitions and results concerning stochastic ordering, statistical dependence, reliability, and decision theory. He offers a detailed but accessible mathematical treatment of different aspects of probability distributions for exchangea...

  18. Can psychosocial work conditions protect against age-related cognitive decline? Results from a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nexø, Mette Andersen; Meng, Annette; Borg, Vilhelm

    2016-07-01

    According to the use it or lose it hypothesis, intellectually stimulating activities postpone age-related cognitive decline. A previous systematic review concluded that a high level of mental work demands and job control protected against cognitive decline. However, it did not distinguish between outcomes that were measured as cognitive function at one point in time or as cognitive decline. Our study aimed to systematically review which psychosocial working conditions were prospectively associated with high levels of cognitive function and/or changes in cognitive function over time. Articles were identified by a systematic literature search (MEDLINE, Web of Science (WOS), PsycNET, Occupational Safety and Health (OSH)). We included only studies with longitudinal designs examining the impact of psychosocial work conditions on outcomes defined as cognitive function or changes in cognitive function. Two independent reviewers compared title-abstract screenings, full-text screenings and quality assessment ratings. Eleven studies were included in the final synthesis and showed that high levels of mental work demands, occupational complexity or job control at one point in time were prospectively associated with higher levels of cognitive function in midlife or late life. However, the evidence to clarify whether these psychosocial factors also affected cognitive decline was insufficient, conflicting or weak. It remains speculative whether job control, job demands or occupational complexity can protect against cognitive decline. Future studies using methodological advancements can reveal whether workers gain more cognitive reserve in midlife and late life than the available evidence currently suggests. The public health implications of a previous review should thereby be redefined accordingly. PMID:27178844

  19. Assessment of students’ health condition by indicators of adaptation potential, biological age and bio-energetic reserves of organism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyniuk O.V.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to assess students’ health condition by indicators of adaptation potential, biological age and express-assessment. Material: in the research 47 first and second year girl students participated, who belonged to main health group. Results: we distributed the girl students into three groups: 14.89% of them were included in group with “safe” health condition; 34.04% - in group of “third state”; 51.06% were related to group with “ dangerous” health condition. We established that dangerous level was characterized by energy potential of below middle and low level. It is accompanied by accelerated processes of organism’s age destructions and tension of regulation mechanisms. Conclusions: the received results permit to further develop and generalize the data of students’ health’s assessment by indicators of adaptation potentials, biological age and physical health’s condition.

  20. Birth Weight, Birth Length, and Gestational Age as Indicators of Favorable Fetal Growth Conditions in a US Sample

    OpenAIRE

    Camerota, Marie; Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    The “fetal origins” hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino ...

  1. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  2. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  3. Prevalence of Frailty and Aging-Related Health Conditions in Older Koreans in Rural Communities: a Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Aging Study of Pyeongchang Rural Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hee-Won; Jang, Il-Young; Lee, Young Soo; Lee, Chang Ki; Cho, Eun-Il; Kang, Woo Young; Chae, Jeoung Hee; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Dae Hyun

    2016-03-01

    Frailty has been previously studied in Western countries and the urban Korean population; however, the burden of frailty and geriatric conditions in the aging populations of rural Korean communities had not yet been determined. Thus, we established a population-based prospective study of adults aged ≥ 65 years residing in rural communities of Korea between October 2014 and December 2014. All participants underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment that encompassed the assessment of cognitive and physical function, depression, nutrition, and body composition using bioimpedance analysis. We determined the prevalence of frailty based on the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Korean version of FRAIL (K-FRAIL) criteria, as well as geriatric conditions. We recruited 382 adults (98% of eligible adults; mean age: 74 years; 56% women). Generally, sociodemographic characteristics were similar to those of the general rural Korean population. Common geriatric conditions included instrumental activity of daily living disability (39%), malnutrition risk (38%), cognitive dysfunction (33%), multimorbidity (32%), and sarcopenia (28%), while dismobility (8%), incontinence (8%), and polypharmacy (3%) were less common conditions. While more individuals were classified as frail according to the K-FRAIL criteria (27%) than the CHS criteria (17%), the CHS criteria were more strongly associated with prevalent geriatric conditions. Older Koreans living in rural communities have a significant burden of frailty and geriatric conditions that increase the risk of functional decline, poor quality of life, and mortality. The current study provides a basis to guide public health professionals and policy-makers in prioritizing certain areas of care and designing effective public health interventions to promote healthy aging of this vulnerable population. PMID:26952571

  4. RELAXATIONS LOSSES IN POLYETHYLENE INSULATION OF COAXIAL CABLE STRUCTURE DURING AGING IN HIGH HUMIDITY CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.V. Bezprozvannych

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The presence of free moisture in power cables leading to the formation of tree structures - water treeing, which originate in the amorphous phase polyethylene and are a major cause of degradation of the polymer insulation. They represent the damage of the polymer size from several microns to 1 mm, developing technology for insulation defects under the combined action of the electric field and the moisture diffusing from the environment. Water treeing destroys the polymer chain, resulting in the formation of microcavities filled with moisture. The dynamics of water treeing and subtle properties largely depend on the composition, morphology of the polymer insulation, chemical nature of the defect, in which they originate. Due to the force of gravity in the water formed typical only for her region with locally ordered structure - clusters, which cause loss of relaxation. Purpose. Features presence of relaxation losses in high-frequency range in polyethylene insulation during aging in high humidity conditions of samples power and RF cables. Methodology. Samples of the power cable for the voltage of 35 kV with a cross-linked polyethylene insulation radial water-blocking protection from moisture and radio-frequency coaxial cable with thermoplastic insulation for 1440 hours in a humidity of 100%. The dielectric loss tangent measured resonance method before and after aging. Originality. Experimentally found evidence of the existence in the polymer cable insulation free water in the form of areas with locally ordered structure - clusters. It is found that the solid polyethylene insulation in the frequency dependence of dielectric loss tangent maximum relaxation shown one at 10 MHz in the initial state, and there are two additional frequency range 500 kHz - 5 MHz after moistening. For cross-linked polyethylene insulation characteristic of large width Δf of the frequency spectrum in which the observed relaxation losses. It is obvious that

  5. Effects of Accelerated Aging on Soybean Seed Germination Indexes at Laboratory Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Zahra RASTEGAR; Mohammad SEDGHI; Saeid KHOMARI

    2011-01-01

    Reduction of seedling growth is a consequence of seed deterioration. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of duration of seed aging on soybean seed germination characteristics. Experiment conducted as completely randomized design with 4 replications. The seeds of �DPX� line of soybean with 15-16% moisture were incubated for 3, 7, 10, 14, 17 day at 40�C in sealed containers for ageing treatment and non aged seeds were considered as control. Results showed that rapid aging treatm...

  6. The Human Tripeptide GHK-Cu in Prevention of Oxidative Stress and Degenerative Conditions of Aging: Implications for Cognitive Health

    OpenAIRE

    Loren Pickart; Jessica Michelle Vasquez-Soltero; Anna Margolina

    2012-01-01

    Oxidative stress, disrupted copper homeostasis, and neuroinflammation due to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines are considered leading causative factors in development of age-associated neurodegenerative conditions. Recently, a new mechanism of aging—detrimental epigenetic modifications—has emerged. Thus, compounds that possess antioxidant, anti-inflammatory activity as well as compounds capable of restoring copper balance and proper gene functioning may be able to prevent age-associ...

  7. The influence of dental condition on overall health of seniors and the role of Health Education in this age group.

    OpenAIRE

    MYSLÍKOVÁ, Michaela

    2012-01-01

    Bacherol Thesis is focused primaliry on fading of senior in dental hygiene and influence of dental condition on overall health in the age group. Unfortunately today isn´t the issue of seniors oral health and oral cavity insufficient attention. Insufficient oral care and bad informatik of seniors can lead to premature los sof natural teeth. Therefore awarenes is basic in preventing dental hygiene, as et seniors, so for other age groups. Theoretical part of Bacherol Thesis, ainclude information...

  8. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  9. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  10. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  11. Effect of thermal aging conditions on the corrosion properties and hardness of a duplex stainless steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eduardo May

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The corrosion properties of a 22.5 wt. (% Cr duplex stainless steel were investigated after long-term aging of 3000, 5000 and 7000 hours at 300 and 400 ºC. The corrosion resistance was measured based on mass loss in a FeCl3 10 wt. (% solution and electrochemical measurements in a 0.1 M H2SO4 solution. The results indicate that the corrosion resistance decreased steadily up to 5000 hours of aging. However, the samples subjected to 7000 hours of aging showed better corrosion resistance than those aged for 3000 and 5000 hours. This effect is attributed to the phase transformation that occurs during aging, a finding which was confirmed by hardness, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements.

  12. Effect of thermal aging conditions on the corrosion properties and hardness of a duplex stainless steel

    OpenAIRE

    José Eduardo May; Carlos Alberto Caldas de Souza; Pedro Augusto de Paula Nascente; Paulo Soares; Carlos Mauricio Lepienski; Sebastião Elias Kuri

    2010-01-01

    The corrosion properties of a 22.5 wt. (%) Cr duplex stainless steel were investigated after long-term aging of 3000, 5000 and 7000 hours at 300 and 400 ºC. The corrosion resistance was measured based on mass loss in a FeCl3 10 wt. (%) solution and electrochemical measurements in a 0.1 M H2SO4 solution. The results indicate that the corrosion resistance decreased steadily up to 5000 hours of aging. However, the samples subjected to 7000 hours of aging showed better corrosion resistance than t...

  13. Body condition recovery, carcass electrical stimulation and meat aging as improvement factors of loin traits in santa inês ewes culled by age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Eduardo dos Santos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Effects of body condition (BC recovery, carcass electrical stimulation (ES and meat aging time (AT were studied on the carcass and loin in Santa Ines ewes culled by age and slaughtered immediately after pup weaning or after BC recovery period. Carcass characteristics, shear force (SF, cooking loss (CL, meat color (L*, a*, b* and sensory characteristics of Longissimus muscle were evaluated. It was concluded that BC recovery improved carcass characteristics and meat color brightness, however did not affect the tenderness. The ES and AT improved tenderness, reducing SF in 44 - 45% and in 51 - 59%, respectively, for 7 or 14 days of aging and 32 - 33% in non aged meat. ES affected the color parameters, clearing the meat. AT darkened and accentuated the brownish red color of meat and increased the cooking losses, from 15.2% (non aged to 19.6% and 23.1%, respectively, for 7 and 14 days of AT. The sensory evaluation for tenderness corroborated the findings of the instrumental evaluation, which confirmed the effectiveness of ES in improving meat tenderness.

  14. Elements of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rumshiskii, L Z

    1965-01-01

    Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments

  15. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  16. Non-Archimedean Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Benci, Vieri; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    2011-01-01

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and zero- and unit-probability events pose no particular epistemological problems. We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability is replaced by a different type of infinite additivity.

  17. Social relations and filial maturity in middle-aged adults: contextual conditions and psychological determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrig-Chiello, P; Sturzenegger, M

    2001-02-01

    The aim of this paper is to highlight the contextual and psychological preconditions of parent help and helpfulness in a sample of 260 middle-aged persons belonging to two age groups, 40-45 years and 50-55 years. In a first step we want to focus on the description of the contextual situation of the persons of this "hinge generation": What are their available social networks; what are their commitments towards children and parents in terms of perceived obligation and investment; how is their perceived balance of giving and receiving; how do they anticipate and experience dependency of their parents? In a second step we will highlight the readiness of middle-aged women and men to help their parents as well as the effectively reported help. Here we are interested in the psychological determinants of such attitude and behaviour. Structural equation models are performed to estimate the predictory power of personality variables, control beliefs and reported stress (family and job) on filial helpfulness and help. Results suggest that differential aspects such as gender and age group explain a large amount of variance of the variables intergenerational commitment and satisfaction with social networks and have--along with personality variables--a strong impact on filial help and helpfulness of middle-aged adults. PMID:11310223

  18. Demand-specific work ability, poor health and working conditions in middle-aged full-time employees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else;

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross-sectional question......We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross......-sectional questionnaire data from 3381 full-time employees responding to questions about vocational education, job demands and social support (working conditions), musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and major depression (MD) (poor health) and seven questions about difficulty managing different job demands (reduced demand-specific...... work ability). Reduced demand-specific work ability varied from 9% to 19% among the 46-year old and from 11% to 21% among the 56-year old. Age was associated with two, gender with four, and education with all measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. MSP was associated with four and MD...

  19. The influence of environmental conditions on the age pattern in breeding performance in a transequatorial migratory seabird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noelia eHernández

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Several studies of marine top predators, above all of seabirds, have analysed the effects of either individual age or environmental fluctuations on reproduction; nevertheless, little is known about the age patterns in breeding performance in a variable environment. To investigate the simultaneous influence of age and environmental conditions on laying dates and egg volumes, we tested different climate and food availability indices in a transequatorial migratory seabird using female data from a 23-year study. Our results show an initial improvement in breeding parameters with age (i.e. earlier laying dates and greater egg volumes but no pattern of senescence in older age groups. The best models showed an interaction of time and age in breeding performance, i.e. the age pattern of breeding performance changed each year likely as a result of environmental variability. Nevertheless, climatic indexes used here explained part of that annual variability: NAO and SOI index accounted for 24% and 20% of deviances in laying dates and egg volume respectively. Part of that unexplained variability might be related to other processes such as intermittent breeding and the individual quality of breeders, which were not assessed in our study.

  20. Metallurgical properties of reduced activation martensitic steel Eurofer'97 in the as-received condition and after thermal ageing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the microstructural studies and the mechanical testing (hardness, tensile and charpy tests) performed on the Eurofer'97 steel in the as-received condition and after thermal ageing treatments up to 600 deg. C. In addition, fracture toughness tests on the as-received condition have been carried out in order to determine the Master Curve. During the thermal ageing treatments studied (500 deg. C/5000 h and 600 deg. C/1000 h) the general microstructure of the steel (tempered martensite with M23C6 and MX precipitates) remained stable. Only a slight growth of the particles has been observed. In terms of mechanical properties, the Eurofer'97 steel exhibited similar values of tensile properties (tensile and yield strength) and ductile-brittle transition temperature regardless of the material condition studied.

  1. Accelerated aging of catalytically airblown asphalt membranes under simulated uranium mill tailings impoundment conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper evaluates the performance of asphalt membranes by examining the chemical and permeability changes experienced by the asphalt during aging tests. The aging process was accelerated by exposing the asphalt to elevated temperatures, high oxygen concentrations, and increased strengths of aqueous oxidizing agents. The synergistic effects of the variables are evaluated by using a fractional factorial experimental design. The installation costs for a catalytically airblown asphalt liner are roughly half that of the typical polymeric materials, and also less than the rubberized asphalt membrane. The results of the initial accelerated aging tests of the asphalt membranes indicate that this material will provide stable, long-term leachate isolation in a mill tailings environment

  2. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Roussas, George G

    2006-01-01

    Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an

  3. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  4. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    2013-01-01

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned prob

  5. Dependent Probability Spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  6. Galantamine Facilitates Acquisition of Hippocampus-Dependent Trace Eyeblink Conditioning in Aged Rabbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weible, Aldis P.; Oh, M. Matthew; Lee, Grace; Disterhoft, John F.

    2004-01-01

    Cholinergic systems are critical to the neural mechanisms mediating learning. Reduced nicotinic cholinergic receptor (nAChR) binding is a hallmark of normal aging. These reductions are markedly more severe in some dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease. Pharmacological central nervous system therapies are a means to ameliorate the cognitive…

  7. Effect Aging Conditions on the Repair Bond Strength of a Microhybrid and a Nanohybrid Resin Composite

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ozcan, Mutlu; Cura, Cenk; Brendeke, Johannes

    2010-01-01

    Purpose This study evaluated the effect of different aging methods on the repair bond strength and failure types of a microhybrid and a nanohybrid composite Materials and Methods Disk shaped microhybrid (Quadrant Anterior Shine-QA) and nanohybrid (Tetric EvoCeram TE) resin composite specimens (N = 1

  8. Age differences in fear retention and extinction in male Sprague-Dawley rats: effects of ethanol challenge during conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadwater, Margaret; Spear, Linda P

    2013-09-01

    Pavlovian fear conditioning is an ideal model to investigate how learning and memory are influenced by alcohol use during adolescence because the neural mechanisms involved have been studied extensively. In Exp 1, adolescent and adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were non-injected or injected with saline, 1 or 1.5 g/kg ethanol intraperitoneally 10 min prior to tone or context conditioning. Twenty-four hours later, animals were tested for tone or context retention and extinction, with examination of extinction retention conducted 24h thereafter. In Exp 2, a context extinction session was inserted between the tone conditioning and the tone fear retention/extinction days to reduce pre-CS baseline freezing levels at test. Basal levels of acquisition, fear retention, extinction, and extinction retention after tone conditioning were similar between adolescent and adult rats. In contrast adolescents showed faster context extinction than adults, while again not differing from adults during context acquisition, retention or extinction retention. In terms of ethanol effects, adolescents were less sensitive to ethanol-induced context retention deficits than adults. No age differences emerged in terms of tone fear retention, with ethanol disrupting tone fear retention at both ages in Exp 1, but at neither age in Exp 2, a difference seemingly due to group differences in pre-CS freezing during tone testing in Exp 1, but not Exp 2. These results suggest that age differences in the acute effects of ethanol on cognitive function are task-specific, and provide further evidence for age differences cognitive functioning in a task thought to be hippocampally related.

  9. Conditional ablation of the choroideremia gene causes age-related changes in mouse retinal pigment epithelium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silène T Wavre-Shapton

    Full Text Available The retinal pigment epithelium (RPE is a pigmented monolayer of cells lying between the photoreceptors and a layer of fenestrated capillaries, the choriocapillaris. Choroideremia (CHM is an X-linked progressive degeneration of these three layers caused by the loss of function of Rab Escort protein-1 (REP1. REP1 is involved in the prenylation of Rab proteins, key regulators of membrane trafficking. To study the pathological consequences of chronic disruption of membrane traffic in the RPE we used a cell type-specific knock-out mouse model of the disease, where the Chm/Rep1 gene is deleted only in pigmented cells (Chm(Flox, Tyr-Cre+. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM was used to quantitate the melanosome distribution in the RPE and immunofluorescent staining of rhodopsin was used to quantitate phagocytosed rod outer segments in retinal sections. The ultrastructure of the RPE and Bruch's membrane at different ages was characterised by TEM to analyse age-related changes occurring as a result of defects in membrane traffic pathways. Chm/Rep1 gene knockout in RPE cells resulted in reduced numbers of melanosomes in the apical processes and delayed phagosome degradation. In addition, the RPE accumulated pathological changes at 5-6 months of age similar to those observed in 2-year old controls. These included the intracellular accumulation of lipofuscin-containing deposits, disorganised basal infoldings and the extracellular accumulation of basal laminar and basal linear deposits. The phenotype of the Chm(Flox, Tyr-Cre+ mice suggests that loss of the Chm/Rep1 gene causes premature accumulation of features of aging in the RPE. Furthermore, the striking similarities between the present observations and some of the phenotypes reported in age-related macular degeneration (AMD suggest that membrane traffic defects may contribute to the pathogenesis of AMD.

  10. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  11. Nine children over the age of one year with full trisomy 13: a case series describing medical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruns, Deborah A; Campbell, Emily

    2014-12-01

    Trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome), identified by Patau and colleagues [1960; Lancet 1: 790-793] is the third most common autosomal condition. Population studies indicate less than one in 10 children reaches their first birthday. In the face of mixed findings and recommendations for treatment, additional research is needed to further determine what contributes to longevity and implications for treatment for presenting medical conditions. The purpose of the present study is to report on presenting medical conditions and the presence or absence of the specific conditions (age at survey completion). Data on nine survivors (seven female, two male) with trisomy 13 indicated mean gestational age of approximately 36 weeks, birth weight ranging from 1100 to 3290 g and mean length of 45.3 cm. Length of hospital stay after birth varied. The majority of infants presented with well-known physical characteristics. Medical conditions and their treatment varied at birth and at survey completion. Notably, several infants' cardiac anomalies resolved without surgical intervention. Surgeries were provided for a range of conditions including gastrostomy tube placement to address feeding issues and removal of intestinal blockage. There were no reports of holoprosencephaly. Implications and recommendations are provided. PMID:25323598

  12. Philosophy and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Childers, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,

  13. Introduction to probability models

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon M

    2006-01-01

    Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random v

  14. Multiple Chronic Conditions among Adults Aged 45 and Over: Trends Over the Past 10 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... needs and use for Medicare and other payers. Keywords: hypertension, diabetes, cancer, prevalence The percentage of adults ... with two or more chronic conditions had increasing difficulty obtaining needed medical care and prescription drugs because ...

  15. Regenerative and reparative effects of human chorion-derived stem cell conditioned medium on photo-aged epidermal cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiankun; Chen, Yan; Ma, Kui; Zhao, Along; Zhang, Cuiping; Fu, Xiaobing

    2016-01-01

    Epidermal cells are an important regenerative source for skin wound healing. Aged epidermal cells have a low ability to renew themselves and repair skin injury. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, particularly UVB, can cause photo-aging of the skin by suppressing the viability of human epidermal cells. A chorion-derived stem cell conditioned medium (CDSC-CNM) is thought to have regenerative properties. This study aimed to determine the regenerative effects of CDSC-CNM on UVB-induced photo-aged epidermal cells. Epidermal cells were passaged four times and irradiated with quantitative UVB, and non-irradiated cells served as a control group. Cells were then treated with different concentrations of CDSC-CNM. Compared to the non-irradiated group, the proliferation rates and migration rates of UVB-induced photo-aged epidermal cells significantly decreased (p photo-aged epidermal cells significantly improved their viability, and their ROS generation and DNA damage decreased. The secretory factors in CDSC-CNM, including epidermal growth factor (EGF), transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β), interleukin (IL)-6, and IL-8 and the related signaling pathway protein levels, increased compared to the control medium (CM). The potential regenerative and reparative effects of CDSC-CNM indicate that it may be a candidate material for the treatment of prematurely aged skin. The functions of the secretory factors and the mechanisms of CDSC-CNM therapy deserve further attention.

  16. Molecular contingencies: reinforcement probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, J M; Shimp, C P

    1975-11-01

    Pigeons obtained food by responding in a discrete-trials two-choice probability-learning experiment involving temporal stimuli. A given response alternative, a left- or right-key peck, had 11 associated reinforcement probabilities within each session. Reinforcement probability for a choice was an increasing or a decreasing function of the time interval immediately preceding the choice. The 11 equiprobable temporal stimuli ranged from 1 to 11 sec in 1-sec classes. Preference tended to deviate from probability matching in the direction of maximizing; i.e., the percentage of choices of the preferred response alternative tended to exceed the probability of reinforcement for that alternative. This result was qualitatively consistent with probability-learning experiments using visual stimuli. The result is consistent with a molecular analysis of operant behavior and poses a difficulty for molar theories holding that local variations in reinforcement probability may safely be disregarded in the analysis of behavior maintained by operant paradigms. PMID:16811883

  17. Age and sex dependence of body potassium based on studies of 40K under Indian conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potassium plays an important role in human life 40K is a naturally occurring radioisotope of potassium (K) with an abundance of 0.0118%. The measurement of body 40K in a whole-body counter (WBC) provides a sensitive technique to estimate the total body potassium (TBK). Information on TBK of Indians with age and sex is scanty. Therefore, a systematic study was taken up to generate this information using a sensitive WBC

  18. Macroepiphyseal dysplasia with symptomatic osteoporosis, wrinkled skin, and aged appearance: A presumed autosomal recessive condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAlister, W.H.; Coe, J.D.; Whyte, M.P.

    1986-01-01

    We report our detailed investigation of a 7-1/2-year-old girl with short stature, aged appearance, decreased subcutaneous fat and muscle mass, dry coarse hair, foot deformities, macroepiphyses with prominent but lax joints, and osteoporosis with recurrent fractures who is the offspring of first cousins. This constellation of abnormalities differs from previously reported cases where macroepiphyses were a prominent finding. Our patient appears, therefore, to have a new, autosomal recessively inherited, syndrome.

  19. Condition Monitoring of a Thermally Aged HTPB/IPDI Elastomer by NMR CP Recovery Times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ASSINK,ROGER A.; LANG,DAVID; CELINA,MATHIAS C.

    2000-07-24

    A hydroxy-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB)/isophorone diisocyanate (IPDI) elastomer is commonly used as propellant binder material. The thermal degradation of the binder is believed to be an important parameter governing the performance of the propellant. The aging of these binders can be monitored by mechanical property measurements such as modulus or tensile elongation. These techniques, however, are not easily adapted to binder agents that are dispersed throughout a propellant. In this paper the authors investigated solid state NMR relaxation times as a means to predict the mechanical properties of the binder as a function of aging time. {sup 1}H spin-lattice and spin-spin relaxation times were found to be insensitive to the degree of thermal degradation of the elastomer. Apparently these relaxation times depend on localized motions that are only weakly correlated with mechanical properties. A strong correlation was found between the {sup 13}C cross-polarization (CP) NMR time constant, T{sub cp}, and the tensile elongation at break of the elastomer as a function of aging time. A ramped-amplitude CP experiment was shown to be less sensitive to imperfections in setting critical instrumental parameters for this mobile material.

  20. Birth Weight, Birth Length, and Gestational Age as Indicators of Favorable Fetal Growth Conditions in a US Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camerota, Marie; Bollen, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    The "fetal origins" hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino children from Cebu provided evidence consistent with treating FFGC as a latent variable that largely mediates the effects of mother's characteristics on birth weight, birth length, and gestational age. This innovative method may have widespread utility, but only if the model applies equally well across diverse settings. Our study assesses whether the FFGC model of Cebu replicates and generalizes to a very different population of children from North Carolina (N=705) and Pennsylvania (N=494). Using a series of structural equation models, we find that key features of the Cebu analysis replicate and generalize while we also highlight differences between these studies. Our results support treating fetal conditions as a latent variable when researchers test the fetal origins hypothesis. In addition to contributing to the substantive literature on measuring fetal conditions, we also discuss the meaning and challenges involved in replicating prior research. PMID:27097023

  1. The human tripeptide GHK-Cu in prevention of oxidative stress and degenerative conditions of aging: implications for cognitive health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickart, Loren; Vasquez-Soltero, Jessica Michelle; Margolina, Anna

    2012-01-01

    Oxidative stress, disrupted copper homeostasis, and neuroinflammation due to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines are considered leading causative factors in development of age-associated neurodegenerative conditions. Recently, a new mechanism of aging-detrimental epigenetic modifications-has emerged. Thus, compounds that possess antioxidant, anti-inflammatory activity as well as compounds capable of restoring copper balance and proper gene functioning may be able to prevent age-associated cognitive decline and ward off many common neurodegenerative conditions. The aim of this paper is to bring attention to a compound with a long history of safe use in wound healing and antiaging skin care. The human tripeptide GHK was discovered in 1973 as an activity in human albumin that caused old human liver tissue to synthesize proteins like younger tissue. It has high affinity for copper ions and easily forms a copper complex or GHK-Cu. In addition, GHK possesses a plethora of other regenerative and protective actions including antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and wound healing properties. Recent studies revealed its ability to up- and downregulate a large number of human genes including those that are critical for neuronal development and maintenance. We propose GHK tripeptide as a possible therapeutic agent against age-associated neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. PMID:22666519

  2. Density measurements as a condition monitoring approach for following the aging of nuclear power plant cable materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillen, K. T.; Celina, M.; Clough, R. L.

    1999-10-01

    Monitoring changes in material density has been suggested as a potentially useful condition monitoring (CM) method for following the aging of cable jacket and insulation materials in nuclear power plants. In this study, we compare density measurements and ultimate tensile elongation results versus aging time for most of the important generic types of commercial nuclear power plant cable materials. Aging conditions, which include thermal-only, as well as combined radiation plus thermal, were chosen such that potentially anomalous effects caused by diffusion-limited oxidation (DLO) are unimportant. The results show that easily measurable density increases occur in most important cable materials. For some materials and environments, the density change occurs at a fairly constant rate throughout the mechanical property lifetime. For cases involving so-called induction-time behavior, density increases are slow to moderate until after the induction time, at which point they begin to increase dramatically. In other instances, density increases rapidly at first, then slows down. The results offer strong evidence that density measurements, which reflect property changes under both radiation and thermal conditions, could represent a very useful CM approach.

  3. INSTITUTION FOR THE AGED: ASSESSING THE CONDITIONS OF ACCESSIBILITY AND FUNCTIONALITY OF THE ELDERLY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphaella Lomanto Santos de Almeida

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The study aim was to assess the capacity to undertake the Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL of elderly residents of an Institution for the Aged (IA and their level of accessibility. This is an observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study. The level of independence for BADL was assessed by the Barthel Index and the degree of accessibility of IA was verified through a check-list, based on the Brazilian Standard (NBR 9050/2004, the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards (ABNT. Of the 62 seniors who participated in the study, 64.5% had some degree of functional dependence. Noteworthy the level of functional dependency for activities undertaken in the bathroom among elderly on wheelchair. The assessed physical structure does not fully follow the technical standards established by NBR 9050, with differences mainly in the parameters of bedrooms, bathrooms and stairs. Although much of the institutionalized elderly presenting advanced and most functional vulnerability ages, level of IA architectural accessibility is still insufficient. Rooms and bathrooms are the places with the highest deficit of accessibility and also higher prevalence of falls among the elderly residents. A good level of accessibility in IA, can be an important factor in improving the level of independence for everyday activities and to prevent the risk of falls.

  4. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  5. Effects of nerve growth factor and heart cell conditioned medium on neurite regeneration of aged sympathetic neurons in culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchida, Y; Tomonaga, M

    1985-11-25

    The effects of nerve growth factor (NGF) and heart-cell-conditioned medium (HCM) on the neurite regeneration of aged sympathetic neurons were investigated in culture. Investigation of HCM was carried out by two different methods: one was the use of whole HCM on collagen substratum, which reflected component(s) effective in solution (HCM-S); the other was the use of polyornithine (PORN)-binding component(s) (P-HCM). Superior cervical ganglion neurons prepared from male mice from 6 to 30 months of age were cultured in MEM-10% FCS on collagen or gelatin-PORN substratum for 3 days. The number of neurons with neurites and the length of neurites were quantified as neurite production and elongation, respectively. Neuronal survival was not affected by addition of NGF, HCM-S or P-HCM. Neurite production of early adult neurons was enhanced by NGF, HCM-S or P-HCM. In contrast, neurite production of aged neurons was enhanced by only HCM-S, but not NGF or P-HCM. HCM-S did not promote neurite elongation in neurons at any age. Neurite elongation of early adult neurons was enhanced by NGF or P-HCM. Neurite elongation of aged neurons was enhanced by P-HCM. However, responsiveness of NGF for neurite elongation varied according to substrata. No age-related difference was found in neurite production and elongation in the absence of NGF, HCM-S or P-HCM. These results indicate that responsiveness of aged sympathetic neurons is various in different growth factors. PMID:3840716

  6. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  7. Qubit persistence probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work, I formulate the persistence probability for a qubit device as the probability of measuring its computational degrees of freedom in the unperturbed state without the decoherence arising from environmental interactions. A decoherence time can be obtained from the persistence probability. Drawing on recent work of Garg, and also Palma, Suomine, and Ekert, I apply the persistence probability formalism to a generic single-qubit device coupled to a thermal environment, and also apply it to a trapped-ion quantum register coupled to the ion vibrational modes. (author)

  8. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  9. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  10. Age-dependent baseline values of faecal cortisol metabolites in the American mink (Neovison vison) under semi-natural housing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauch, E; Bergmann, S; Hagn, A; Meixensperger, J; Reese, S; Palme, R; Erhard, M H

    2014-06-01

    The welfare of an animal is ensured if it is able to fully satisfy its essential species-typical needs in all functional aspects of behaviour. In mink, stereotypies and apathy, internal and/or external injuries as well as increased susceptibility to disease have been known to occur as a result of chronic stress. The non-invasive method of analysing faecal cortisol metabolites (FCM) allows conclusions to be drawn about the stress level in the respective housing system. The objective of this study is to find out how the cortisol metabolites content in the faecal changes with increasing age of the mink under semi-natural housing conditions. Thus, 40 American mink (Neovison vison) were housed in two outdoor enclosures imitating natural conditions. Throughout the entire study (13th to 32nd week of life), faecal samples were collected to measure cortisol metabolites. No differences in FCM concentrations between the two outdoor enclosures were found. In the young mink lower, less fluctuating FCM levels were found than in older animals. After the first faecal collection in the 13th/14th week of life, the level of metabolites decreased slightly (p = 0.032; 17th/18th week). From the 22nd/23rd week onwards until the 30th/31st week, shortly before the animals were pelted, continuously increasing concentrations were then measured. Increasing FCM levels with advancing age of the animals are probably attributable to the onset of sexual maturity and/or the respective season. This has to be taken into account in future studies using this method for assessing welfare and when comparing different mink housing systems.

  11. Age-dependent baseline values of faecal cortisol metabolites in the American mink (Neovison vison) under semi-natural housing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauch, E; Bergmann, S; Hagn, A; Meixensperger, J; Reese, S; Palme, R; Erhard, M H

    2014-06-01

    The welfare of an animal is ensured if it is able to fully satisfy its essential species-typical needs in all functional aspects of behaviour. In mink, stereotypies and apathy, internal and/or external injuries as well as increased susceptibility to disease have been known to occur as a result of chronic stress. The non-invasive method of analysing faecal cortisol metabolites (FCM) allows conclusions to be drawn about the stress level in the respective housing system. The objective of this study is to find out how the cortisol metabolites content in the faecal changes with increasing age of the mink under semi-natural housing conditions. Thus, 40 American mink (Neovison vison) were housed in two outdoor enclosures imitating natural conditions. Throughout the entire study (13th to 32nd week of life), faecal samples were collected to measure cortisol metabolites. No differences in FCM concentrations between the two outdoor enclosures were found. In the young mink lower, less fluctuating FCM levels were found than in older animals. After the first faecal collection in the 13th/14th week of life, the level of metabolites decreased slightly (p = 0.032; 17th/18th week). From the 22nd/23rd week onwards until the 30th/31st week, shortly before the animals were pelted, continuously increasing concentrations were then measured. Increasing FCM levels with advancing age of the animals are probably attributable to the onset of sexual maturity and/or the respective season. This has to be taken into account in future studies using this method for assessing welfare and when comparing different mink housing systems. PMID:24033508

  12. QTLs for Seed Vigor-Related Traits Identified in Maize Seeds Germinated under Artificial Aging Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Han, Zanping; Ku, Lixia; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jun; Guo, Shulei; Liu, Haiying; Zhao, Ruifang; Ren, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Liangkun; Su, Huihui; Dong, Lei; Chen, Yanhui

    2014-01-01

    High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL) maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed g...

  13. Smart aircraft fastener evaluation (SAFE) system: a condition-based corrosion detection system for aging aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoess, Jeffrey N.; Seifert, Greg; Paul, Clare A.

    1996-05-01

    The smart aircraft fastener evaluation (SAFE) system is an advanced structural health monitoring effort to detect and characterize corrosion in hidden and inaccessible locations of aircraft structures. Hidden corrosion is the number one logistics problem for the U.S. Air Force, with an estimated maintenance cost of $700M per year in 1990 dollars. The SAFE system incorporates a solid-state electrochemical microsensor and smart sensor electronics in the body of a Hi-Lok aircraft fastener to process and autonomously report corrosion status to aircraft maintenance personnel. The long-term payoff for using SAFE technology will be in predictive maintenance for aging aircraft and rotorcraft systems, fugitive emissions applications such as control valves, chemical pipeline vessels, and industrial boilers. Predictive maintenance capability, service, and repair will replace the current practice of scheduled maintenance to substantially reduce operational costs. A summary of the SAFE concept, laboratory test results, and future field test plans is presented.

  14. Nutritional status, socio-economic and hygienic condition of school aged children of a village of Pune District, Maharashtra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puranik SS

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The field of anthropometry encompasses a variety of human body measurements, such as weight, height and size; including skin fold thickness, circumference, lengths, and breadths. Anthropometry is a key component of nutritional status assessment in children and adults. Anthropometric data for children reflect general health status, dietary adequacy and growth and development over time. The main objective of the study was to diagnose and analyze the magnitude and causes of nutritional and health problems of the village. Method: Anthropometric reference data of 100 children between 7-14 years of age from a small village situated 30 km from Pune. Using this data BMI i.e. Body Mass Index was calculated which helps in determining whether an individual is overweight or underweight. Result: The overall study helped us to find out the socioeconomic condition, hygienic condition as well as nutritional status of children. All the anthropometric measurements of the girls and boys in 7-14 years age group was found to be significantly normal. Conclusion: The hygienic condition of the village was good enough and in turn BMI data shows that the socioeconomic condition of the village was also good.

  15. Follow-up: Prospective compound design using the ‘SAR Matrix’ method and matrix-derived conditional probabilities of activity [v2; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/59v

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Disha Gupta-Ostermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In a previous Method Article, we have presented the ‘Structure-Activity Relationship (SAR Matrix’ (SARM approach. The SARM methodology is designed to systematically extract structurally related compound series from screening or chemical optimization data and organize these series and associated SAR information in matrices reminiscent of R-group tables. SARM calculations also yield many virtual candidate compounds that form a “chemical space envelope” around related series. To further extend the SARM approach, different methods are developed to predict the activity of virtual compounds. In this follow-up contribution, we describe an activity prediction method that derives conditional probabilities of activity from SARMs and report representative results of first prospective applications of this approach.

  16. A Numerical Model for the Thermomechanical Conditions During Hydration of Early-age Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper; Thorborg, Jesper

    2003-01-01

    conduction equation. Non-linear phenomena such as sequential casting, maturity dependent material properties, creep and non-linear thermal boundary conditions are all taken into account. Different rheological models describing the viscoelastic behaviour have been implemented. Validations of the model against...... of the maturity and the thermal activation is expressed by the Arrhenius principle. The material properties are assumed to depend on the hydration process via the maturity. The discretization of the governing equations is accomplished by a control volume formulation involving a time-splitting scheme for the heat...

  17. Health Maintenance in Very Old Age : Medical Conditions, Functional Outcome and Nutritional Status

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Huan-Ji

    2014-01-01

    The overall aim of this thesis was to provide better understanding of the underlying factors related to health maintenance in very old people, with a focus on medical conditions, functional outcome and nutritional status. Data were gathered from the ELSA 85 project (Elderly in Linköping Screening Assessment). The ELSA 85 project was started in 2007 with a population-based survey of 85-year-old individuals (n = 650) residing in Linköping municipality, Sweden. During the study period from 2007 ...

  18. conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Venkatesulu

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available Solutions of initial value problems associated with a pair of ordinary differential systems (L1,L2 defined on two adjacent intervals I1 and I2 and satisfying certain interface-spatial conditions at the common end (interface point are studied.

  19. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  20. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  1. Dynamic update with probabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. van Benthem; J. Gerbrandy; B. Kooi

    2009-01-01

    Current dynamic-epistemic logics model different types of information change in multi-agent scenarios. We generalize these logics to a probabilistic setting, obtaining a calculus for multi-agent update with three natural slots: prior probability on states, occurrence probabilities in the relevant pr

  2. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  3. Economy, probability and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Druica

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The science of probabilities has earned a special place because it tried through its concepts to build a bridge between theory and experimenting.As a formal notion which by definition does not lead to polemic, probability, nevertheless, meets a series of difficulties of interpretation whenever the probability must be applied to certain particular situations.Usually, the economic literature brings into discussion two interpretations of the concept of probability:the objective interpretation often found under the name of frequency or statistical interpretation and the subjective or personal interpretation. Surprisingly, the third appproach is excluded:the logical interpretation.The purpose of the present paper is to study some aspects of the subjective and logical interpretation of the probability, aswell as the implications in the economics.

  4. Effect of conditioning methods on the microtensile bond strength of phosphate monomer-based cement on zirconia ceramic in dry and aged conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Regina; Ozcan, Mutlu; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Balducci, Ivan; Bottino, Marco Antonio

    2008-04-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the durability of bond strength between a resin cement and aluminous ceramic submitted to various surface conditioning methods. Twenty-four blocks (5 x 5 x 4 mm(3)) of a glass-infiltrated zirconia-alumina ceramic (In-Ceram Zirconia Classic) were randomly divided into three surface treatment groups: ST1-Air-abrasion with 110-mum Al2O3 particles + silanization; ST2-Laboratory tribochemical silica coating method (110-microm Al2O3, 110-microm silica) (Rocatec) + silanization; ST3-Chairside tribochemical silica coating method (30-microm SiO(x)) (CoJet) + silanization. Each treated ceramic block was placed in its silicone mold with the treated surface exposed. The resin cement (Panavia F) was prepared and injected into the mold over the treated surface. Specimens were sectioned to achieve nontrimmed bar specimens (14 sp/block) that were randomly divided into two conditions: (a) Dry-microtensile test after sectioning; (b) Thermocycling (TC)-(6,000x, 5-55 degrees C) and water storage (150 days). Thus, six experimental groups were obtained (n = 50): Gr1-ST1 + dry; Gr2-ST1 + TC(;) Gr3-ST2 + dry; Gr4-ST2 + TC; Gr5-ST3 + dry; Gr6-ST3 + TC. After microtensile testing, the failure types were noted. ST2 (25.1 +/- 11) and ST3 (24.1 +/- 7.4) presented statistically higher bond strength (MPa) than that of ST1 (17.5 +/- 8) regardless of aging conditions (p < 0.0001). While Gr2 revealed the lowest results (13.3 +/- 6.4), the other groups (21.7 +/- 7.4-25. 9 +/- 9.1) showed statistically no significant differences (two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test, alpha = 0.05). The majority of the failures were mixed (82%) followed by adhesive failures (18%). Gr2 presented significantly higher incidence of ADHESIVE failures (54%) than those of other groups (p = 0.0001). Both laboratory and chairside silica coating plus silanization showed durable bond strength. After aging, air-abrasion with 110-microm Al(2)O(3) + silanization showed the largest decrease

  5. The Human Tripeptide GHK-Cu in Prevention of Oxidative Stress and Degenerative Conditions of Aging: Implications for Cognitive Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loren Pickart

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Oxidative stress, disrupted copper homeostasis, and neuroinflammation due to overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines are considered leading causative factors in development of age-associated neurodegenerative conditions. Recently, a new mechanism of aging—detrimental epigenetic modifications—has emerged. Thus, compounds that possess antioxidant, anti-inflammatory activity as well as compounds capable of restoring copper balance and proper gene functioning may be able to prevent age-associated cognitive decline and ward off many common neurodegenerative conditions. The aim of this paper is to bring attention to a compound with a long history of safe use in wound healing and antiaging skin care. The human tripeptide GHK was discovered in 1973 as an activity in human albumin that caused old human liver tissue to synthesize proteins like younger tissue. It has high affinity for copper ions and easily forms a copper complex or GHK-Cu. In addition, GHK possesses a plethora of other regenerative and protective actions including antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and wound healing properties. Recent studies revealed its ability to up- and downregulate a large number of human genes including those that are critical for neuronal development and maintenance. We propose GHK tripeptide as a possible therapeutic agent against age-associated neurodegeneration and cognitive decline.

  6. Age-associated differences in global and segmental control during dual-task walking under sub-optimal sensory conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Nandini; Hewston, Patricia; Yoshikawa, Mika

    2015-04-01

    The ability to safely perform cognitive-motor dual-tasks is critical for independence of older adults. We compared age-associated differences in global and segmental control during dual-task walking in sub-optimal sensory conditions. Thirteen young (YA) and 13 healthy older (OA) adults walked a straight pathway with cognitive dual-task of walking-while-talking (WT) or no-WT under four sensory conditions. On randomly selected trials, visual and vestibular inputs were manipulated using blurring goggles (BV) and Galvanic Vestibular Stimulation (GVS), respectively. Gait speed decreased more in YA than OA during WT. Gait speed increased with GVS with normal vision but not BV. Step length considerably decreased with WT. Trunk roll significantly decreased only in OA with GVS in WT. Head roll significantly decreased with GVS regardless of age. Results indicate GVS-induced adaptations were dependent on available visual information. YA reduced their gait speed more than OA to achieve a similar pace to safely perform WT. GVS resulted in both age-groups to reduce head movement. However, with the addition of WT during GVS, OA also stiffened their trunk. Therefore, with increased attentional demands healthy OA employed different compensatory strategies than YA to maintain postural control. PMID:25617991

  7. The Influence of Age, Location and Soil Conditions on the Allometry of Young Norway Spruce (Picea abies L. Karst. Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan DUTCA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study the influence of tree’s age, location (i.e. latitude and altitude and soil conditions (i.e. pH, humus content, carbon to nitrogen ratio, cation exchange capacity and percent base saturation on tree allometry was investigated. The data was collected from 22 Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst plantations located in Eastern Carpathians of Romania, aged between 4 and 15. From each plantation a soil sample and 10 trees were collected for soil chemical properties and biomass measurements, respectively. Root collar diameter (RCD and height (H based allometric equations were developed for total tree and vegetative organs of the tree (i.e. stem, branches, needles and roots. Furthermore, the interaction between the standardised residuals of these models and the tested factors was analysed. In order to account for the random effect of the clustered data, the mixed-effect modelling procedure was used. The results have shown no influence of these factors (age, location and soil conditions on RCD based models, except for branches biomass model which was linked to soil carbon/nitrogen ratio. The H based models, however, were significantly influenced by latitude and soil cation exchange capacity as a consequence of H/RCD ratio change with these factors. The trees were more likely to allocate more to height growth when growing in higher latitudes or on soils with higher values of cation exchange capacity.

  8. Chronic conditions and sleep problems among adults aged 50 years or over in nine countries: a multi-country study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Koyanagi

    Full Text Available Data on the association between chronic conditions or the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems in low- or middle-income countries is scarce, and global comparisons of these associations with high-income countries have not been conducted.Data on 42116 individuals 50 years and older from nationally-representative samples of the Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (Finland, Poland, Spain and the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa conducted between 2011-2012 and 2007-2010 respectively were analyzed.The association between nine chronic conditions (angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, depression, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and stroke and self-reported severe/extreme sleep problems in the past 30 days was estimated by logistic regression with multiple variables. The age-adjusted prevalence of sleep problems ranged from 2.8% (China to 17.0% (Poland. After adjustment for confounders, angina (OR 1.75-2.78, arthritis (OR 1.39-2.46, and depression (OR 1.75-5.12 were significantly associated with sleep problems in the majority or all of the countries. Sleep problems were also significantly associated with: asthma in Finland, Spain, and India; chronic lung disease in Poland, Spain, Ghana, and South Africa; diabetes in India; and stroke in China, Ghana, and India. A linear dose-dependent relationship between the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems was observed in all countries. Compared to no chronic conditions, the OR (95%CI for 1,2,3, and ≥ 4 chronic conditions was 1.41 (1.09-1.82, 2.55 (1.99-3.27, 3.22 (2.52-4.11, and 7.62 (5.88-9.87 respectively in the overall sample.Identifying co-existing sleep problems among patients with chronic conditions and treating them simultaneously may lead to better treatment outcome. Clinicians should be aware of the high risk for sleep problems among patients with multimorbidity. Future studies

  9. QTLs for seed vigor-related traits identified in maize seeds germinated under artificial aging conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zanping; Ku, Lixia; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jun; Guo, Shulei; Liu, Haiying; Zhao, Ruifang; Ren, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Liangkun; Su, Huihui; Dong, Lei; Chen, Yanhui

    2014-01-01

    High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL) maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed germination. Sixty-five QTLs distributed between the two populations were identified and a meta-analysis was used to integrate genetic maps. Sixty-one initially identified QTLs were integrated into 18 meta-QTLs (mQTLs). Initial QTLs with contribution to phenotypic variation values of R(2)>10% were integrated into mQTLs. Twenty-three candidate genes for association with seed vigor traits coincided with 13 mQTLs. The candidate genes had functions in the glycolytic pathway and in protein metabolism. QTLs with major effects (R(2)>10%) were identified under at least one treatment condition for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, and mQTL3-4. Candidate genes included a calcium-dependent protein kinase gene (302810918) involved in signal transduction that mapped in the mQTL3-2 interval associated with germination energy (GE) and germination percentage (GP), and an hsp20/alpha crystallin family protein gene (At5g51440) that mapped in the mQTL3-4 interval associated with GE and GP. Two initial QTLs with a major effect under at least two treatment conditions were identified for mQTL5-2. A cucumisin-like Ser protease gene (At5g67360) mapped in the mQTL5-2 interval associated with GP. The chromosome regions for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, mQTL3-4, and mQTL5-2 may be hot spots for QTLs related to seed vigor traits. The mQTLs and candidate genes identified in this study provide valuable information for the identification of additional quantitative trait genes. PMID:24651614

  10. QTLs for seed vigor-related traits identified in maize seeds germinated under artificial aging conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zanping Han

    Full Text Available High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed germination. Sixty-five QTLs distributed between the two populations were identified and a meta-analysis was used to integrate genetic maps. Sixty-one initially identified QTLs were integrated into 18 meta-QTLs (mQTLs. Initial QTLs with contribution to phenotypic variation values of R(2>10% were integrated into mQTLs. Twenty-three candidate genes for association with seed vigor traits coincided with 13 mQTLs. The candidate genes had functions in the glycolytic pathway and in protein metabolism. QTLs with major effects (R(2>10% were identified under at least one treatment condition for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, and mQTL3-4. Candidate genes included a calcium-dependent protein kinase gene (302810918 involved in signal transduction that mapped in the mQTL3-2 interval associated with germination energy (GE and germination percentage (GP, and an hsp20/alpha crystallin family protein gene (At5g51440 that mapped in the mQTL3-4 interval associated with GE and GP. Two initial QTLs with a major effect under at least two treatment conditions were identified for mQTL5-2. A cucumisin-like Ser protease gene (At5g67360 mapped in the mQTL5-2 interval associated with GP. The chromosome regions for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, mQTL3-4, and mQTL5-2 may be hot spots for QTLs related to seed vigor traits. The mQTLs and candidate genes identified in this study provide valuable information for the identification of additional quantitative trait genes.

  11. Branch age and light conditions determine leaf-area-specific conductivity in current shoots of Scots pine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grönlund, Leila; Hölttä, Teemu; Mäkelä, Annikki

    2016-08-01

    Shoot size and other shoot properties more or less follow the availability of light, but there is also evidence that the topological position in a tree crown has an influence on shoot development. Whether the hydraulic properties of new shoots are more regulated by the light or the position affects the shoot acclimation to changing light conditions and thereby to changing evaporative demand. We investigated the leaf-area-specific conductivity (and its components sapwood-specific conductivity and Huber value) of the current-year shoots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in relation to light environment and topological position in three different tree classes. The light environment was quantified in terms of simulated transpiration and the topological position was quantified by parent branch age. Sample shoot measurements included length, basal and tip diameter, hydraulic conductivity of the shoot, tracheid area and density, and specific leaf area. In our results, the leaf-area-specific conductivity of new shoots declined with parent branch age and increased with simulated transpiration rate of the shoot. The relation to transpiration demand seemed more decisive, since it gave higher R(2) values than branch age and explained the differences between the tree classes. The trend of leaf-area-specific conductivity with simulated transpiration was closely related to Huber value, whereas the trend of leaf-area-specific conductivity with parent branch age was related to a similar trend in sapwood-specific conductivity.

  12. Branch age and light conditions determine leaf-area-specific conductivity in current shoots of Scots pine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grönlund, Leila; Hölttä, Teemu; Mäkelä, Annikki

    2016-08-01

    Shoot size and other shoot properties more or less follow the availability of light, but there is also evidence that the topological position in a tree crown has an influence on shoot development. Whether the hydraulic properties of new shoots are more regulated by the light or the position affects the shoot acclimation to changing light conditions and thereby to changing evaporative demand. We investigated the leaf-area-specific conductivity (and its components sapwood-specific conductivity and Huber value) of the current-year shoots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in relation to light environment and topological position in three different tree classes. The light environment was quantified in terms of simulated transpiration and the topological position was quantified by parent branch age. Sample shoot measurements included length, basal and tip diameter, hydraulic conductivity of the shoot, tracheid area and density, and specific leaf area. In our results, the leaf-area-specific conductivity of new shoots declined with parent branch age and increased with simulated transpiration rate of the shoot. The relation to transpiration demand seemed more decisive, since it gave higher R(2) values than branch age and explained the differences between the tree classes. The trend of leaf-area-specific conductivity with simulated transpiration was closely related to Huber value, whereas the trend of leaf-area-specific conductivity with parent branch age was related to a similar trend in sapwood-specific conductivity. PMID:27217528

  13. Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Bueno-Soler

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

  14. A Tutorial Introduction to the Logic of Parametric Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Norman, Joseph W.

    2012-01-01

    The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the probabilities of logical propositions. An alternative direct probability encoding scheme is presented, which allows statements of implication and quantification to be modeled directly as constraints on conditional probabilities. Several example problems are so...

  15. Abstract Models of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maximov, V. M.

    2001-12-01

    Probability theory presents a mathematical formalization of intuitive ideas of independent events and a probability as a measure of randomness. It is based on axioms 1-5 of A.N. Kolmogorov 1 and their generalizations 2. Different formalized refinements were proposed for such notions as events, independence, random value etc., 2,3, whereas the measure of randomness, i.e. numbers from [0,1], remained unchanged. To be precise we mention some attempts of generalization of the probability theory with negative probabilities 4. From another side the physicists tryed to use the negative and even complex values of probability to explain some paradoxes in quantum mechanics 5,6,7. Only recently, the necessity of formalization of quantum mechanics and their foundations 8 led to the construction of p-adic probabilities 9,10,11, which essentially extended our concept of probability and randomness. Therefore, a natural question arises how to describe algebraic structures whose elements can be used as a measure of randomness. As consequence, a necessity arises to define the types of randomness corresponding to every such algebraic structure. Possibly, this leads to another concept of randomness that has another nature different from combinatorical - metric conception of Kolmogorov. Apparenly, discrepancy of real type of randomness corresponding to some experimental data lead to paradoxes, if we use another model of randomness for data processing 12. Algebraic structure whose elements can be used to estimate some randomness will be called a probability set Φ. Naturally, the elements of Φ are the probabilities.

  16. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  17. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  18. Stochastic modeling of groundwater flow and particle transport in a 2-D heterogeneous medium by the method of conditional probabilities; Modelisation stochastique conditionnelle de l`ecoulement et du transport particulaire dans un milieu heterogene bidimensionnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenier, C. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Dept. de Mecanique et de Technologie]|[Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 75 - Paris (France)

    1997-12-31

    The study addresses the issues of groundwater flow and particle transport in a 2-D heterogenous porous medium. We follow here the line of G. Dagan and Y. Rubin. In a series of articles these authors propose and represent the variables involves (transmissivity, head, Darcy velocity, particle position and travel time) by means of stochastic processes. The (unconditional) moments are first derived by solving the partial differential equations corresponding to a 2-D flow in a saturated medium, with no recharge. In a second step, the variances of the processes are reduced bu taking local data into account within the conditional probabilities framework. In this document we present a complete theoretical study of the method and apply it on synthetical test cases. We deal with the following matters: study the impact of different data type and configurations on the conditional estimation of the flow and transport variables; study the robustness of the model for increasing levels of heterogeneity by means of comparison with the moments obtained by Monte-Carlo simulations. The method is enlarged to weakly un-stationary flow cases (non constant transmissivity and head gradient means) and applied on synthetical test cases. (author) 80 refs.

  19. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  20. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  1. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  2. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  3. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake “calibrating adjustments” to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that...

  4. Probability with Roulette

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Jennings B.

    2007-01-01

    This article describes how roulette can be used to teach basic concepts of probability. Various bets are used to illustrate the computation of expected value. A betting system shows variations in patterns that often appear in random events.

  5. Radiocarbon ages of terrestrial gastropods extend duration of ice-free conditions at the Two Creeks forest bed, Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rech, Jason A.; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of terrestrial gastropods that underlie the late Pleistocene Two Creeks forest bed (~ 13,800–13,500 cal yr BP) in eastern Wisconsin, USA provides evidence for a mixed tundra-taiga environment prior to formation of the taiga forest bed. Ten new AMS 14C analyses on terrestrial gastropod shells indicate the mixed tundra-taiga environment persisted from ~ 14,500 to 13,900 cal yr BP. The Twocreekan climatic substage, representing ice-free conditions on the shore of Lake Michigan, therefore began near the onset of peak warming conditions during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial and lasted ~ 1000 yr, nearly 600 yr longer than previously thought. These results provide important data for understanding the response of continental ice sheets to global climate forcing and demonstrate the potential of using terrestrial gastropod fossils for both environmental reconstruction and age control in late Quaternary sediments.

  6. Monte Carlo transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Lucy, L. B.

    2001-01-01

    Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...

  7. Asteroidal collision probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottke, William F., Jr.; Greenberg, Richard

    1993-01-01

    Several past calculations of collision probabilities between pairs of bodies on independent orbits have yielded inconsistent results. We review the methodologies and identify their various problems. Greenberg's (1982) collision probability formalism (now with a corrected symmetry assumption) is equivalent to Wetherill's (1967) approach, except that it includes a way to avoid singularities near apsides. That method shows that the procedure by Namiki and Binzel (1991) was accurate for those cases where singularities did not arise.

  8. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  9. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  10. Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization (NEPO) final report on aging and condition monitoring of low-voltage cable materials.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assink, Roger Alan; Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Bernstein, Robert

    2005-11-01

    This report summarizes results generated on a 5-year cable-aging program that constituted part of the Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization (NEPO) program, an effort cosponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The NEPO cable-aging effort concentrated on two important issues involving the development of better lifetime prediction methods as well as the development and testing of novel cable condition-monitoring (CM) techniques. To address improved life prediction methods, we first describe the use of time-temperature superposition principles, indicating how this approach improves the testing of the Arrhenius model by utilizing all of the experimentally generated data instead of a few selected and processed data points. Although reasonable superposition is often found, we show several cases where non-superposition is evident, a situation that violates the constant acceleration assumption normally used in accelerated aging studies. Long-term aging results over extended temperature ranges allow us to show that curvature in Arrhenius plots for elongation is a common occurrence. In all cases the curvature results in a lowering of the Arrhenius activation energy at lower temperatures implying that typical extrapolation of high temperature results over-estimates material lifetimes. The long-term results also allow us to test the significance of extrapolating through the crystalline melting point of semi-crystalline materials. By utilizing ultrasensitive oxygen consumption (UOC) measurements, we show that it is possible to probe the low temperature extrapolation region normally inaccessible to conventional accelerated aging studies. This allows the quantitative testing of the often-used Arrhenius extrapolation assumption. Such testing indicates that many materials again show evidence of ''downward'' curvature (E{sub a} values drop as the aging temperature is lowered) consistent with the limited

  11. Launch Collision Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  12. [DIFFERENCES IN PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND IN PHYSICAL CONDITION BETWEEN SCHOOL AGE STUDENTS OF TWO PUBLIC CURRICULUM PROGRAMS IN BOGOTA, COLOMBIA].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo Cubides, Raúl; Aldana Alarcón, Luis Gonzalo; Gutiérrez Galvis, Adriana Rocío

    2015-01-01

    During the past five decades there has been an increased in the prevalence of obesity and over weight, also in physical inactivity and /or low cardiorespiratory fitness within the population in school age from diverse regions of the planet, including Bogota-Colombia. The general objective of this study was to compare the physical condition and the levels of physical activity from students who belonged to two curriculum programs of the Public Schools Network from Bogota, one of which includes two sessions per week, each session of 90 minutes of physical activity. We developed a research of unlike cross-sectional groups. There were 178 children evaluated from the regular curriculum and 170 kids belonging to the program 40 x 40. The physical condition was evaluated applying the protocol of high priority from the ALPHA -Fitness test Battery. The weight, height, body mass index, the waist circumference, the standing long jump, the handgrip in both hands and the motor fitness 20 meter shuttle run test were developed under standardized conditions. The Global School Health Survey (GSHS) was used to evaluate the levels of AF. No significant statistical differences were founded between P-40x40 and the regular curriculum regarding: weight, height, the body mass index, the waist circumference, the handgrip in both hands and the explosive strength in lower limbs. Nevertheless the cardiorespiratory fitness was significantly lower within de P-40x40. In conclusion the participation in the curricular program 40 x 40 was not associated with better levels of physical condition. PMID:26545682

  13. Influence of age, sex and season on morbidity and mortality pattern in goats under village conditions of Madhya Pradesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Dohare

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To study factors affecting morbidity and mortality pattern in goats in Chambal division of Madhya Pradesh under village conditions. Materials and Methods: The sampling scheme adopted during study was stratified three stage random sampling and data on 549 goats were recorded. Results: The overall morbidity and mortality rate was 20.58% and 10.20% respectively. Proportional mortality due to diarrhoea was highest (35.71% followed by pneumonia (28.57% and miscellaneous causes (12.5%. Pattern of morbidity in male and female was almost similar. Age of goats was the most important factor and accounted for 39.29%, 28.57% and 32.14% mortality in 0-3 month, 6-9 month and above 9 months, respectively. The effect of season on goat mortality was significant (p<0.05.The incidence of mortality were 41.07%, 37.5% and 21.43% in winter, rainy and summer season respectively. Conclusion: In goats mortality was significantly influenced by age groups and suggesting that more care and attention need to be paid in kids 0-3 months age irrespective of season. Mortality due to various diseases in kids and adults could be minimized by identifying the cause and giving proper treatment. [Vet World 2013; 6(6.000: 329-331

  14. Neighborhood conditions, diabetes, and risk of lower-body functional limitations among middle-aged African Americans: A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yan

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The relationship between presence of diabetes and adverse neighborhood and housing conditions and their effect on functional decline is unclear. We examined the association of adverse neighborhood (block face and housing conditions with incidence of lower-body functional limitations among persons with and those without diabetes using a prospective population-based cohort study of 563 African Americans 49-65 years of age at their 2000-2001 baseline interviews. Methods Participants were randomly sampled African Americans living in the St. Louis area (response rate: 76%. Physician-diagnosed diabetes was self reported at baseline interview. Lower-body functional limitations were self reported based on the Nagi physical performance scale at baseline and the three-year follow-up interviews. The external appearance of the block the respondent lived on and five housing conditions were rated by study interviewers. All analyses were done using propensity score methods to control for confounders. Results 109 (19.4% of subjects experienced incident lower-body functional limitations at three-year follow-up. In adjusted analysis, persons with diabetes who lived on block faces rated as fair-poor on each of the five conditions had higher odds (7.79 [95% confidence interval: 1.36-37.55] to 144.6 [95% confidence interval: 4.45-775.53] of developing lower-body functional limitations than the referent group of persons without diabetes who lived on block faces rated as good-excellent. At least 80 percent of incident lower-body functional limitations was attributable to the interaction between block face conditions and diabetes status. Conclusions Adverse neighborhood conditions appear to exacerbate the detrimental effects on lower-body functioning associated with diabetes.

  15. The influence of exercises under isokinetic conditions on heart rate in males aged between 40 and 51.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czamara, Andrzej; Krzemińska, Aleksandra; Szuba, Lukasz

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate changes in heart rate (HR) values in response to the exercise under isokinetic conditions, with defined protocol using three different angular velocities and 2 minute break. The subjects were divided into two groups. The first group contained 18 males aged between 40 and 50, and the second group contained 20 males who were 20-30 years old. The heart rate was monitored before, during and after the strength moment measurement under isokinetic conditions of extensors and flexors of knee joint. The strength moment was measured with an angular velocity of 180 °/s, 120°/s and 60 °/s. The number of repetitions of extension and flexion of the knee joint was 10 for the angular velocity of 180 °/s, 8 for the angular velocity of 120 °/s and 5 for the angular velocity of 60 °/s. The break between each series of repetitions took 2 minutes. The peak torques for extensors and flexors of both lower extremities were measured. The peak torque and heart rate values increased with a decrease in the preset angular velocity and were lower in the second group. The results were within the norm accepted for submaximal heart rate index in both age groups.

  16. Choosing information variables for transition probabilities in a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J. Filardo

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses a practical estimation issue for time-varying transition probability (TVTP) Markov switching models. Time-varying transition probabilities allow researchers to capture important economic behavior that may be missed using constant (or fixed) transition probabilities. Despite its use, Hamilton’s (1989) filtering method for estimating fixed transition probability Markov switching models may not apply to TVTP models. This paper provides a set of sufficient conditions to justi...

  17. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  18. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

  19. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  20. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  1. State and Regional Prevalence of Diagnosed Multiple Chronic Conditions Among Adults Aged ≥18 Years - United States, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Brian W; Black, Lindsey I

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence and care management of multiple (two or more) chronic conditions (MCC) are important public health concerns (1). Approximately 25% of U.S. adults have diagnoses of MCC (2). Care management of MCC presents a challenge to both patients and providers because of the substantial costs associated with treating more than one condition and the traditional care strategies that focus on single conditions as opposed to enhanced care coordination (3,4). Maintaining surveillance, targeting service delivery, and projecting resources are all important to meet this challenge, and these actions can be informed by identifying state and other regional variations in MCC prevalence (5,6). Data from the 2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to estimate prevalence of MCC (defined as two or more of 10 diagnosed chronic conditions) for each U.S. state and region by age and sex. Significant state and regional variation in MCC prevalence was found, with state-level estimates ranging from 19.0% in Colorado to 38.2% in Kentucky. MCC prevalence also varied by region, ranging from 21.4% in the Pacific region to 34.5% in the East South Central region. The prevalence of MCC was higher among women than among men within certain U.S. regions, and was higher in older persons in all regions. Such findings further the research and surveillance objectives stated in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) publication, Multiple Chronic Conditions: A Strategic Framework (1). Furthermore, geographic disparities in MCC prevalence can inform state-level surveillance programs and groups targeting service delivery or allocating resources for MCC prevention activities. PMID:27467707

  2. Probabilities from Envariance

    CERN Document Server

    Zurek, W H

    2004-01-01

    I show how probabilities arise in quantum physics by exploring implications of {\\it environment - assisted invariance} or {\\it envariance}, a recently discovered symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum systems. Envariance of perfectly entangled states can be used to rigorously justify complete ignorance of the observer about the outcome of any measurement on either of the members of the entangled pair. Envariance leads to Born's rule, $p_k \\propto |\\psi_k|^2$. Probabilities derived in this manner are an objective reflection of the underlying state of the system -- they reflect experimentally verifiable symmetries, and not just a subjective ``state of knowledge'' of the observer. Envariance - based approach is compared with and found superior to the key pre-quantum definitions of probability including the {\\it standard definition} based on the `principle of indifference' due to Laplace, and the {\\it relative frequency approach} advocated by von Mises. Implications of envariance for the interpretation of quantu...

  3. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  4. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  5. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  6. Dynamic strain aging in stress controlled creep-fatigue tests of 316L stainless steel under different loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stress controlled fatigue-creep tests were carried out for 316L stainless steel under different loading conditions, i.e. different loading levels at the fixed temperature (loading condition 1, LC1) and different temperatures at the fixed loading level (loading condition 2, LC2). Cyclic deformation behaviors were investigated with respect to the evolutions of strain amplitude and mean strain. Abrupt mean strain jumps were found during cyclic deformation, which was in response to the dynamic strain aging effect. Moreover, as to LC1, when the minimum stress is negative at 550 deg. C, abrupt mean strain jumps occur at the early stage of cyclic deformation and there are many jumps during the whole process. While the minimum stress is positive, mean strain only jumps once at the end of deformation. Similar results were also found in LC2, when the loading level is fixed at -100 to 385 MPa, at higher temperatures (560, 575 deg. C), abrupt mean strain jumps occur at the early stage of cyclic deformation and there are many jumps during the whole process. While at lower temperature (540 deg. C), mean strain only jumps once at the end of deformation.

  7. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  8. Negative Probabilities and Contextuality

    CERN Document Server

    de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary

    2015-01-01

    There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.

  9. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  10. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  11. Logic and probability

    OpenAIRE

    Quznetsov, G. A.

    2003-01-01

    The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The variant of the nonstandard analysis is adopted for the definition of the logical function, which has all properties of the classical probability function. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of this function.

  12. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  13. Logic, Truth and Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Quznetsov, Gunn

    1998-01-01

    The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The variant of the nonstandard analysis is adopted for the definition of the logical function, which has all properties of the classical probability function. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of this function.

  14. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;

    2014-01-01

    that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  15. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  16. Real analysis and probability solutions to problems

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert P

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability: Solutions to Problems presents solutions to problems in real analysis and probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability; the interplay between measure theory and topology; conditional probability and expectation; the central limit theorem; and strong laws of large numbers in terms of martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with problems and solutions for the theory of measure and integration, followed by various applications of the basic integration theory.

  17. Transition Probability Estimates for Reversible Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Telcs, Andras

    2000-01-01

    This paper provides transition probability estimates of transient reversible Markov chains. The key condition of the result is the spatial symmetry and polynomial decay of the Green's function of the chain.

  18. On Probability Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.

  19. The ethics of human condition in the age of technological civilization. Back and forth with Heidegger and Jonas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Luzia Miranda

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE The ethical dimension of the human condition in our times takes increasingly more space in current philosophical discussions. In this context, the ethical principle of responsibility has been widely discussed, particularly by authors who work on the ethical implications of modern technology. In his essay on ethics for the technological age, Hans Jonas proposes to base ethics on a principle of responsibility, taking into account that we live in the age of technological civilization. The present paper explores the origins and sources of Jonas’ principle of responsibility, focusing on the influence of his teacher Martin Heidegger on Jonas’s work. The paper analyses the intrinsic and intriguing relationship between Heidegger’s ontological concept of “care” [Sorge] and the idea or responsibility in Jonas, and it examines further the current discussion on the possibility of an ethical foundation for the techno scientific civilization. Keywords:  Philosophy of technology; Éthics and technology; Ontology; Martin Heidegger; Hans Jonas.

  20. Generalized couplings and convergence of transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Kulik, Alexei; Scheutzow, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We provide sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of an invariant measure of a Markov process as well as for the weak convergence of transition probabilities to the invariant measure. Our conditions are formulated in terms of generalized couplings. We apply our results to several SPDEs for which unique ergodicity has been proven in a recent paper by Glatt-Holtz, Mattingly, and Richards and show that under essentially the same assumptions the weak convergence of transition probabilities actu...

  1. Under conditions of large geometric miss, tumor control probability can be higher for static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy compared to volume-modulated arc therapy for prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderson, Michael; Brown, Derek; Johnson, Patricia; Kirkby, Charles

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work was to compare static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in terms of tumor control probability (TCP) under scenarios involving large geometric misses, i.e., those beyond what are accounted for when margin expansion is determined. Using a planning approach typical for these treatments, a linear-quadratic-based model for TCP was used to compare mean TCP values for a population of patients who experiences a geometric miss (i.e., systematic and random shifts of the clinical target volume within the planning target dose distribution). A Monte Carlo approach was used to account for the different biological sensitivities of a population of patients. Interestingly, for errors consisting of coplanar systematic target volume offsets and three-dimensional random offsets, static gantry IMRT appears to offer an advantage over VMAT in that larger shift errors are tolerated for the same mean TCP. For example, under the conditions simulated, erroneous systematic shifts of 15mm directly between or directly into static gantry IMRT fields result in mean TCP values between 96% and 98%, whereas the same errors on VMAT plans result in mean TCP values between 45% and 74%. Random geometric shifts of the target volume were characterized using normal distributions in each Cartesian dimension. When the standard deviations were doubled from those values assumed in the derivation of the treatment margins, our model showed a 7% drop in mean TCP for the static gantry IMRT plans but a 20% drop in TCP for the VMAT plans. Although adding a margin for error to a clinical target volume is perhaps the best approach to account for expected geometric misses, this work suggests that static gantry IMRT may offer a treatment that is more tolerant to geometric miss errors than VMAT. PMID:27067229

  2. Stress before Puberty Exerts a Sex- and Age-Related Impact on Auditory and Contextual Fear Conditioning in the Rat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Toledo-Rodriguez

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is a period of major physical, hormonal, and psychological changes. It is also characterized by a significant increase in the incidence of psychopathologies and this increase is gender-specific. Stress during adolescence is associated with the development of psychiatric disorders later in life. In this study, we evaluated the impact of psychogenic stress (exposure to predator odor followed by placement on an elevated platform experienced before puberty (days 28–30 on fear memories and hormonal response of male and female rats during adolescence and early adulthood. Stress before puberty impacted in a sex- and age-specific way on the responses to auditory and contextual fear conditioning in adolescence and adulthood: (a increased conditioned fear to the tone in males during adolescence but not during adulthood; (b impaired extinction to the tone in adult males; and (c reduced freezing responses to the context in adolescent females. Stress before puberty did not influence the corticosterone levels 30 minutes after an additional stressor given in adulthood. These results indicate that stress experienced prior to puberty can exert a sex-related differential impact on fear-related behaviors displayed by individuals during late adolescence and early adulthood.

  3. Biodegradation of aged diesel in diverse soil matrixes: impact of environmental conditions and bioavailability on microbial remediation capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Nora B; van Gaans, Pauline; Langenhoff, Alette A M; Maphosa, Farai; Smidt, Hauke; Grotenhuis, Tim; Rijnaarts, Huub H M

    2013-07-01

    While bioremediation of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) is in general a robust technique, heterogeneity in terms of contaminant and environmental characteristics can impact the extent of biodegradation. The current study investigates the implications of different soil matrix types (anthropogenic fill layer, peat, clay, and sand) and bioavailability on bioremediation of an aged diesel contamination from a heterogeneous site. In addition to an uncontaminated sample for each soil type, samples representing two levels of contamination (high and low) were also used; initial TPH concentrations varied between 1.6 and 26.6 g TPH/kg and bioavailability between 36 and 100 %. While significant biodegradation occurred during 100 days of incubation under biostimulating conditions (64.4-100 % remediation efficiency), low bioavailability restricted full biodegradation, yielding a residual TPH concentration. Respiration levels, as well as the abundance of alkB, encoding mono-oxygenases pivotal for hydrocarbon metabolism, were positively correlated with TPH degradation, demonstrating their usefulness as a proxy for hydrocarbon biodegradation. However, absolute respiration and alkB presence were dependent on soil matrix type, indicating the sensitivity of results to initial environmental conditions. Through investigating biodegradation potential across a heterogeneous site, this research illuminates the interplay between soil matrix type, bioavailability, and bioremediation and the implications of these parameters for the effectiveness of an in situ treatment.

  4. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  5. Fractal probability laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

    2008-06-01

    We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.

  6. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  7. Angles as probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Feldman, David V

    2008-01-01

    We use a probabilistic interpretation of solid angles to generalize the well-known fact that the inner angles of a triangle sum to 180 degrees. For the 3-dimensional case, we show that the sum of the solid inner vertex angles of a tetrahedron T, divided by 2*pi, gives the probability that an orthogonal projection of T onto a random 2-plane is a triangle. More generally, it is shown that the sum of the (solid) inner vertex angles of an n-simplex S, normalized by the area of the unit (n-1)-hemisphere, gives the probability that an orthogonal projection of S onto a random hyperplane is an (n-1)-simplex. Applications to more general polytopes are treated briefly, as is the related Perles-Shephard proof of the classical Gram-Euler relations.

  8. Waste Package Misload Probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.K. Knudsen

    2001-11-20

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.

  9. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  10. Chemical immobilization of adult female Weddell seals with tiletamine and zolazepam: effects of age, condition and stage of lactation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harcourt Robert G

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chemical immobilization of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii has previously been, for the most part, problematic and this has been mainly attributed to the type of immobilizing agent used. In addition to individual sensitivity, physiological status may play an important role. We investigated the use of the intravenous administration of a 1:1 mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam (Telazol® to immobilize adult females at different points during a physiologically demanding 5–6 week lactation period. We also compared performance between IV and IM injection of the same mixture. Results The tiletamine:zolazepam mixture administered intravenously was an effective method for immobilization with no fatalities or pronounced apnoeas in 106 procedures; however, there was a 25 % (one animal in four mortality rate with intramuscular administration. Induction time was slightly longer for females at the end of lactation (54.9 ± 2.3 seconds than at post-parturition (48.2 ± 2.9 seconds. In addition, the number of previous captures had a positive effect on induction time. There was no evidence for effects due to age, condition (total body lipid, stage of lactation or number of captures on recovery time. Conclusion We suggest that intravenous administration of tiletamine and zolazepam is an effective and safe immobilizing agent for female Weddell seals. Although individual traits could not explain variation in recovery time, we suggest careful monitoring of recovery times during longitudinal studies (> 2 captures. We show that physiological pressures do not substantially affect response to chemical immobilization with this mixture; however, consideration must be taken for differences that may exist for immobilization of adult males and juveniles. Nevertheless, we recommend a mass-specific dose of 0.50 – 0.65 mg/kg for future procedures with adult female Weddell seals and a starting dose of 0.50 mg/kg for other age classes and other

  11. Transformation of even-aged European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to uneven-aged management under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Erik; Meilby, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged forest management is currently taking place throughout Europe. Climate change is, however, expected to change growth conditions—possibly quite radically. Using a deterministic approach, it was the objective of this study to investigate the influence...... of such changes on optimal transformation strategies for an even-aged stand of European Beech in Denmark. For a range of growth change scenarios, represented by changes in site index, optimal harvest policies were determined using a matrix modelling approach and a differential evolution algorithm. Transition...

  12. Probably Almost Bayes Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.;

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...... discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...

  13. Probability for physicists

    CERN Document Server

    Sirca, Simon

    2016-01-01

    This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.

  14. Applying Popper's Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Whiting, Alan B

    2014-01-01

    Professor Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the twentieth century, best known for his doctrine of falsifiability. His axiomatic formulation of probability, however, is unknown to current scientists, though it is championed by several current philosophers of science as superior to the familiar version. Applying his system to problems identified by himself and his supporters, it is shown that it does not have some features he intended and does not solve the problems they have identified.

  15. Integration, measure and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Pitt, H R

    2012-01-01

    This text provides undergraduate mathematics students with an introduction to the modern theory of probability as well as the roots of the theory's mathematical ideas and techniques. Centered around the concept of measure and integration, the treatment is applicable to other branches of analysis and explores more specialized topics, including convergence theorems and random sequences and functions.The initial part is devoted to an exploration of measure and integration from first principles, including sets and set functions, general theory, and integrals of functions of real variables. These t

  16. Measurement Uncertainty and Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willink, Robin

    2013-02-01

    Part I. Principles: 1. Introduction; 2. Foundational ideas in measurement; 3. Components of error or uncertainty; 4. Foundational ideas in probability and statistics; 5. The randomization of systematic errors; 6. Beyond the standard confidence interval; Part II. Evaluation of Uncertainty: 7. Final preparation; 8. Evaluation using the linear approximation; 9. Evaluation without the linear approximations; 10. Uncertainty information fit for purpose; Part III. Related Topics: 11. Measurement of vectors and functions; 12. Why take part in a measurement comparison?; 13. Other philosophies; 14. An assessment of objective Bayesian methods; 15. A guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement; 16. Measurement near a limit - an insoluble problem?; References; Index.

  17. Age-Related Differences in Stepping Response When Stepping onto a Known Soft Surface under Dual Task Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuko Harada

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate whether age-related differences in stepping response influence postural control when stepping onto a known soft surface under dual task conditions. Nine young and eleven older female adults participated. First, they stepped on a flat surface while grasping an empty cup (single task, and then they repeated the task while grasping a cup filled with water (dual task. For the second experiment, they stepped on a soft surface placed in front of them while performing the above tasks. The main result was that %DIP (initiation phase as a percentage of the total stepping task time was significantly higher for older than for young adults during the dual task on the soft surface. In conclusion, caution due to previous experience may increase attentional demand during dual tasks and lengthen the time required for central nervous processing in order to avoid losing postural stability in older adults, resulting in reductions in step velocity and step length compared to those in young adults.

  18. Microstructure and properties of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy pre-stretched plate under various ageing conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The microstructures after various ageing treatments and their relation to the strength,fracture toughness,and corrosion behavior of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy pre-stretched plate were investigated.The results show that retrogression and reaging (RRA) treatment led to a combination of high strength and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) resistance of the alloy.The TEM microstructure of the RRA-treated alloy is a distribution of very fine precipitates in the aluminum matrix grains,similar to that obtained under T6 condition,and the distribution of coarse η MgZn2 precipitates on the grain boundaries similar to that obtained by T7 temper.SEM observations revealed that most of the intergranular fracture characteristics were present on the fracture surface of both the T6 and RRA-treated specimens.On the contrary,the fractographs of the T7 treated specimens mainly consisted of dimple-type ductile transgranular fracture with minor intergranular cracking.

  19. Emptiness Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon

    2016-08-01

    We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.

  20. Measure, integral and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Capiński, Marek

    2004-01-01

    Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

  1. Breakdown Point Theory for Implied Probability Bootstrap

    OpenAIRE

    Lorenzo Camponovo; Taisuke Otsu

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies robustness of bootstrap inference methods under moment conditions. In particular, we compare the uniform weight and implied probability bootstraps by analyzing behaviors of the bootstrap quantiles when outliers take arbitrarily large values, and derive the breakdown points for those bootstrap quantiles. The breakdown point properties characterize the situation where the implied probability bootstrap is more robust than the uniform weight bootstrap against outliers. Simulati...

  2. Savage s Concept of Probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊卫

    2003-01-01

    Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...

  3. Little Ice Age climate and oceanic conditions of the Ross Sea, Antarctica from a coastal ice core record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Rhodes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Little Ice Age (LIA is the most recent abrupt climate change event. Understanding its forcings and associated climate system feedbacks is made difficult by a scarcity of Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate records. In this paper we utilise ice core glaciochemical records to reconstruct atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctic, a region influenced by two contrasting meteorological regimes: katabatic winds and cyclones. Stable isotope (δD and lithophile element concentration (e.g., Al records indicate that the region experienced ~1.75 °C cooler temperatures and strong (>57 m s−1 prevailing katabatic winds during the LIA. We observe that the 1590–1875 record is characterised by high d-excess values and marine element (e.g., Na concentrations, which are linked to the intrusion of cyclonic systems. The strongest katabatic wind events of the LIA, marked by Al, Ti and Pb concentration increases of an order of magnitude (>120 ppb Al, also occur during this interval. Furthermore, concentrations of the biogenic sulphur species MS suggest that biological productivity in the Ross Sea Polynya was ~80% higher prior to 1875 than in the subsequent time. We propose that colder temperatures and intensified cyclonic activity in the Ross Sea promoted stronger katabatic winds across the Ross Ice Shelf, resulting in an enlarged polynya with increased sea ice and bottom water production. It is therefore hypothesised that increased bottom water formation during the LIA occurred in response to atmospheric circulation change.

  4. Oral Health Conditions and Dental Visits Among Pregnant and Nonpregnant Women of Childbearing Age in the United States, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999–2004

    OpenAIRE

    Azofeifa, Alejandro; Yeung, Lorraine F.; Alverson, C. J.; Beltrán-Aguilar, Eugenio

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Oral diseases can be prevented or improved with regular dental visits. Our objective was to assess and compare national estimates on self-reported oral health conditions and dental visits among pregnant women and nonpregnant women of childbearing age by using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Methods We analyzed self-reported oral health information on 897 pregnant women and 3,971 nonpregnant women of childbearing age (15–44 years) from NHAN...

  5. Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery among Danish women hysterectomized for benign conditions: age at hysterectomy, age at subsequent POP operation, and risk of POP after hysterectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykke, Rune; Blaakær, Jan; Ottesen, Bent;

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery after hysterectomy from 1977 to 2009, the time interval from hysterectomy to POP surgery, and age characteristics of women undergoing POP surgery after hysterectomy and to estim......INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery after hysterectomy from 1977 to 2009, the time interval from hysterectomy to POP surgery, and age characteristics of women undergoing POP surgery after hysterectomy...... women was high the first 2 years of the follow-up period with almost 800 women operated yearly. More than one third (n = 2,872) of all women operated for POP were operated less than 5 years after the hysterectomy with a median of 8.6 years. The cumulated incidence of POP surgery after hysterectomy...... with follow-up of up to 32 years was 12 %; 50 % (n = 5,451) of all POP surgeries were in the posterior compartment. The mean age of women undergoing a first POP surgery after hysterectomy was 60 years. CONCLUSIONS: POP after hysterectomy occurs as a long-term complication of hysterectomy; 12...

  6. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  7. Deriving hydrologic conditions in the southern Caucasus region during the Little Ice Age using different geomorphological and paleoenvironmental archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Suchodoletz, Hans; Benito, Dario Martin; Pederson, Neil; Faust, Dominik

    2016-04-01

    From the 15th century to ca. 1850 AD, the Little Ice Age (LIA), was one of the most prominent climatic fluctuations during the Holocene. It was characterized by negative temperature anomalies evidenced for many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Mann 2002). During the LIA, many of these regions showed significant changes of their landscape dynamics such as glacier advances and an intensified hydrological cycle. Although glacier advances and reduced pine growth are reported from the Greater Caucasus for parts of the LIA (Solomina 2005), little is known about the hydrological conditions of the humid to semi-arid Lesser Caucasus and Transcaucasus region during the LIA. Existing pollen records are so strongly disturbed by anthropogenic activity during the last millenia that the LIA is not resolved in the only existing pollen-based precipitation reconstruction for the region (Connor & Kvavadze 2008). Here, we present data derived from different kinds of geomorphological archives from the southern Caucasus region (fluvial sediments, indicators for the timing of incision of recently dry valleys). These data demonstrate intensive geomorphic activity during the LIA obviously caused by a strongly intensified hydrological cycle. Given the rather low temporal resolution of these geomorphological archives, however, more highly-resolved palaeoenvironmental data are needed to better understand also minor climatic and hydrologic fluctuations around the LIA period. To this end, we intend to use a recently developed multispecies tree-ring network from living trees (Martin-Benito et al., in revision). This tree-ring network will be expanded both in space and time using subfossil wood material (stems) found embedded into fluvial LIA-terrace deposits and radiocarbon-dated to the end of the 15th century AD. By overlapping these samples with the living tree network, we will be able to better characterize sub-ordinate climatic and hydrologic fluctuations during the LIA period. References

  8. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  9. Survival probability in patients with liver trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buci, Skender; Kukeli, Agim

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients' survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients' privacy. Findings - When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability. Practical implications - The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management. Originality/value - This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma.

  10. Effect of conditioning methods on the microtensile bond strength of phosphate monomer-based cement on zirconia ceramic in dry and aged conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amaral, Regina; Ozcan, Mutlu; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Balducci, Ivan; Bottino, Marco Antonio

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the durability of bond strength between a resin cement and aluminous ceramic submitted to various surface conditioning methods. Twenty-four blocks (5 X 5 X 4 mm 3) of a glass-in filtrated zirconia-alumina ceramic (inCeram Zirconia Classic) were randomly di

  11. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  12. Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Vasilev

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

  13. 电子对抗下防空兵器对空袭目标的杀伤概率计算%Compute of Kill Probability with Antiaircraft Weapons to Air Targets under Electronic Countermeasure Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周哲帅; 邵国培; 何俊; 陈怀进

    2012-01-01

    研究了雷达受干扰时探测距离及探测区域的变化;分析了情报指挥通信对雷达发现概率以及电子对抗对防空兵合成抗击效能的影响;最后给出了雷达诱饵和距离欺骗干扰时防空兵器一次射击对目标杀伤概率的计算方法.%In this paper, the changes of detection distance and detection range when radar is jammed are researched, the impact of the intelligence command communication on radar discovery probability and that of the electronic countermeasure on synthetic kill effectiveness of antiaircraft forces are analyzed. Finally, the calculation method on kill probability of antiaircraft weapon signal-shot on target when radar is jammed by range deception jamming and radar bait is given.

  14. A preliminary study of the composition of commercial oil, acrylic and vinyl paints and their behaviour after accelerated ageing conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Caterina Izzo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is part of a research project dealing with the establishment of monitoring and damage prevention plans for contemporary artworks. For this purpose, some commercial paints, among the most currently used by young artists, were selected: Winton oil paint (Winsor & Newton, UK, Heavy Body acrylic paint (Liquitex, USA and Flashe vinyl paint (Lefranc & Bourgeois, France. The paints were subjected to different treatments of accelerated ageing, the results indicating different behaviour in relation both to the type of binders and pigments present in the different formulations. In particular, it was observed that ageing produced by ozone plays an important role in the stability of the oil paints, above all in those containing organic azo pigments. Thermal ageing, as expected, influences the stability of all the commercial paints examined, with the formation of alteration products and visible changes in the paint films. Ageing produced by moisture clearly affects the synthetic polymer-based paints, particularly evident in the changes in mass. In all cases, the accelerated ageing treatments produced chromatic variations, more evidently for the oil paints containing organic pigment.

  15. Issues on Living Condition for Aging Population in Sustainable Development City%城市可持续发展中的老年人口生存环境

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    傅桦; 吴雁华

    2000-01-01

    分析可持续发展城市主要特点及与老龄人口的关系,论述城市老年人口的生存环境组成.为了保证城市的持续发展,应当充分考虑老年人的多种需求,发挥城市信息流的作用,建立适应老龄化的可持续发展行动方案,强化社区养老职能,提高老年人口在经济发展中的贡献率,建立城市老年金融机构等.%This paper states the main properties of sustainable city and its relation with aging population.The living condition for the aging includes society,spirit,nature,economy,resource,nutrition,and nonaging population.In order to maintain the development of sustainable city,it is necessary to meet the various needs of every aging people,value the role of exchanging information,take proper action for sake of the aging,consolidate the serving function in community,pay attention to the aging contribution in economical development,and construct finance institution for the aging.

  16. Variables related to the progress of parturition and probability of stillbirth in swine

    OpenAIRE

    Zaleski, Halina M.; Hacker, Roger R.

    1993-01-01

    Sow and piglet variables related to probability of stillbirth and to viability score were analyzed in litters from 98 multiparous Yorkshire sows. Immediately after the birth of each piglet, viability was scored using Randall's method. Sow variables related to the probability of stillbirth were average birth weight of the litter (p = 0.0001), sow age (p = 0.001), sow condition score (p = 0.003), length of gestation (p = 0.005), and number of piglets in the litter (p = 0.01). Sow variables rela...

  17. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  18. Aged neuronal nitric oxide knockout mice show preserved olfactory learning in both social recognition and odor-conditioning tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Keith Maurice Kendrick

    2015-01-01

    There is evidence for both neurotoxic and neuroprotective roles of nitric oxide (NO) in the brain and changes in the expression of the neuronal isoform of nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) gene occur during aging. The current studies have investigated potential support for either a neurotoxic or neuroprotective role of NO derived from nNOS in the context of aging by comparing olfactory learning and locomotor function in young compared to old nNOS knockout (nNOS/-) and wildtype control mice. Tasks ...

  19. Aged neuronal nitric oxide knockout mice show preserved olfactory learning in both social recognition and odor-conditioning tasks

    OpenAIRE

    James, Bronwen M.; Li, Qin; Luo, Lizhu; Kendrick, Keith M.

    2015-01-01

    There is evidence for both neurotoxic and neuroprotective roles of nitric oxide (NO) in the brain and changes in the expression of the neuronal isoform of NO synthase (nNOS) gene occur during aging. The current studies have investigated potential support for either a neurotoxic or neuroprotective role of NO derived from nNOS in the context of aging by comparing olfactory learning and locomotor function in young compared to old nNOS knockout (nNOS−/−) and wildtype control mice. Tasks involving...

  20. Use of chemical indicators of beer aging for ex-post checking of storage conditions and prediction of the sensory stability of beer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cejka, Pavel; Culík, Jiří; Horák, Tomáš; Jurková, Marie; Olšovská, Jana

    2013-12-26

    The rate of beer aging is affected by storage conditions including largely time and temperature. Although bottled beer is commonly stored for up to 1 year, sensorial damage of it is quite frequent. Therefore, a method for retrospective determination of temperature of stored beer was developed. The method is based on the determination of selected carbonyl compounds called as "aging indicators", which are formed during beer aging. The aging indicators were determined using GC-MS after precolumn derivatization with O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentaflourobenzyl)hydroxylamine hydrochloride, and their profile was correlated with the development of old flavor evolving under defined conditions (temperature, time) using both a mathematical and statistical apparatus. Three approaches, including calculation from regression graph, multiple linear regression, and neural networks, were employed. The ultimate uncertainty of the method ranged from 3.0 to 11.0 °C depending on the approach used. Furthermore, the assay was extended to include prediction of beer tendency to sensory aging from freshly bottled beer.

  1. Age-Related Cognitive Impairments in Mice with a Conditional Ablation of the Neural Cell Adhesion Molecule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisaz, Reto; Boadas-Vaello, Pere; Genoux, David; Sandi, Carmen

    2013-01-01

    Most of the mechanisms involved in neural plasticity support cognition, and aging has a considerable effect on some of these processes. The neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) of the immunoglobulin superfamily plays a pivotal role in structural and functional plasticity and is required to modulate cognitive and emotional behaviors. However,…

  2. Microstructural evolution of Fesbnd 22%Cr model alloy under thermal ageing and ion irradiation conditions studied by atom probe tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korchuganova, Olesya A.; Thuvander, Mattias; Aleev, Andrey A.; Rogozhkin, Sergey V.; Boll, Torben; Kulevoy, Timur V.

    2016-08-01

    Nanostructure evolution during ion irradiation of two thermally aged binary Fee22Cr alloys has been investigated using atom probe tomography. Specimens aged at 500 °C for 50 and 200 h were irradiated by 5.6 MeV Fe ions at room temperature up to fluences of 0.3 × 1015 ions/cm2 and 1 × 1015 ions/cm2. The effect of irradiation on the material nanostructure was examined at a depth of 1 μm from the irradiated surface. The analysis of Cr radial concentration functions reveals that dense α‧-phase precipitates in the 200 h aged alloy become diffuse and thereby larger when subjected to irradiation. On the other hand, less Cr-enriched precipitates in the alloy aged for 50 h are less affected. The CreCr pair correlation function analysis shows that matrix inhomogeneity decreases under irradiation. Irradiation leads to a decrease in the number density of diffuse clusters, whereas in the case of well-developed precipitates it remains unchanged.

  3. Mechanical Response of Al-1.09Mg2Si Alloy under Varying Mould and Thermal Ageing Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. I. Sekunowo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Samples of the 6063 (Al-1.09Mg2Si alloy ingot were melted in a crucible furnace and cast in metal and sand moulds, respectively. Standard tensile, hardness, and microstructural test specimens were prepared from cast samples, solution treated at 520∘C, soaked for 6 hrs, and immediately quenched at ambient temperature in a trough containing water to assume a supersaturated structure. The quenched specimens were then thermally aged at 175∘C for 3–7 hrs. Results show that at different ageing time, varied fractions of precipitates and intermetallics evolved in the specimens’ matrices which affect the resulting mechanical properties. The metal mould specimens aged for four hours (MTA-4 exhibited superior ultimate tensile strength of 247.8 MPa; microhardness, 68.5 HV; elongation, 28.2% . It is concluded that the extent of improvement in mechanical properties depends on the fractions, coherence, and distribution of precipitates along with the type of intermetallics developed in the alloy during ageing process.

  4. Induction of a common microglia gene expression signature by aging and neurodegenerative conditions : a co-expression meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtman, Inge R; Raj, Divya D; Miller, Jeremy A.; Schaafsma, Wandert; Yin, Zhuoran; Brouwer, Nieske; Wes, Paul D; Möller, Thomas; Orre, Marie; Kamphuis, Willem; Hol, EM; Boddeke, Erik W G M; Eggen, Bart J L

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Microglia are tissue macrophages of the central nervous system that monitor brain homeostasis and react upon neuronal damage and stress. Aging and neurodegeneration induce a hypersensitive, pro-inflammatory phenotype, referred to as primed microglia. To determine the gene expression si

  5. Induction of a common microglia gene expression signature by aging and neurodegenerative conditions: a co-expression meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.R. Holtman; D.D. Raj; J.A. Miller; W. Schaafsma; Z. Yin; N. Brouwer; P.D. Wes; T. Möller; M. Orre; W. Kamphuis; E.M. Hol; E.W.G.M. Boddeke; B.J.L. Eggen

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Microglia are tissue macrophages of the central nervous system that monitor brain homeostasis and react upon neuronal damage and stress. Aging and neurodegeneration induce a hypersensitive, pro-inflammatory phenotype, referred to as primed microglia. To determine the gene expression si

  6. The Relationship Between Maillard Reaction Product Formation and the Strength of Griege Yarns Subjected to Accelerated Ageing Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previous work examining the effect of ageing on cotton fiber surface chemical and HVI properties, yarn processing performance, and yarn quality showed that cotton bales stored for extended periods exhibit significant changes in a number of these variables including primarily surface sugar content, H...

  7. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  8. The Engagement in Physical Activity for Middle-Aged and Older Adults with Multiple Chronic Conditions: Findings from a Community Health Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chen Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The current aging trends accompanying the increasing prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCCs and decreasing participation in physical activity (PA have swept the United States. In light of the magnitude of this phenomenon, this study seeks to identify the most common MCC combinations and their relationships with PA level. A cross-sectional study, Brazos Valley Health Assessment, was conducted between October 2009 and July 2010. All data analyses were performed by STATA 12.0. The overall sample which met the inclusion criteria is 2,603. Among people older than 45 years, chronic conditions of cardiovascular, endocrine, and musculoskeletal systems were the most prevalent. Participants with three chronic conditions were less likely to meet the PA standard than those with only two chronic conditions. Younger age, women, rural residence, and unsafe environments were related to the lower PA level. After adjusting for seven covariates, all MCCs combinations adversely affect the level of PA (, . People with MCCs were among the least active subgroups despite the health benefits of doing exercise. Given the well-documented benefits of physical activity for delaying the onset or progression of MCCs, public health efforts to enhance regular PA in middle-aged and older adults are recommended.

  9. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  10. Probabilities of multiple quantum teleportation

    OpenAIRE

    Woesler, Richard

    2002-01-01

    Using quantum teleportation a quantum state can be teleported with a certain probability. Here the probabilities for multiple teleportation are derived, i. e. for the case that a teleported quantum state is teleported again or even more than two times, for the two-dimensional case, e. g., for the two orthogonal direcations of the polarization of photons. It is shown that the probability for an exact teleportation, except for an irrelevant phase factor, is 25 %, i. e., surprisingly, this resul...

  11. Effects of age and temperature on calling behavior of carob moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae, zell. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under laboratory conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soofbaf, M; Nouri, G; Goldansaz, S H; Asghari-Zakaria, R

    2007-09-01

    The sexual calling behaviour of Ectomyelois ceratoniae, (zell.) was observed in the laboratory under 16L: 8D photoperiodic regime and three different constant temperatures, 20, 25 and 30 degrees C. E. ceratoniae, females showed a broad late-scotophase peak of calling activity without any calling throughout the photophase. Most females started calling during the eclosion day on, regardless of the temperature. With increasing age, moths initiated calling significantly earlier at night and the mean time spent calling increased significantly on successive days of calling. There was an inverse relationship between mean time spent calling and mean onset time of calling (r = -0.8079, p < 0.0001) and these parameters significantly affected by age and square of temperature.

  12. Hematological profile variation in the european bison (Bison bonasus l., 1758 as a function of age, sex and health condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan Deju

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes some new hematological data on the European bison from the Natural Park of Vanatori Neamt, a comparison being made both between the values recorded in animals of different ages (2-8 years and sexes, and between the values of the European bison and those registered in some kindred ruminant mammals, such as the deer and the cow. More than that, a comparison is made between the data taken over from healthy bisons and from an animal affected by severe anemia and multiple parasitary indices. Hematological prosperity increases with the age in female bisons, while a decrease is reported in males, especially in the case of suffering animals, versus the healthy ones. Comparatively with other big mammals, the hematological profile of the bison is much more similar to that of domestic ruminants, being wholly different from that of the wild deer.

  13. Micromechanical and microstructural investigation of steel corrosion layers of variable age developed under impressed current method, atmospheric or saline conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Dehoux, A; Bouchelaghem, Fatiha; BERTHAUD, Y

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we have gathered the conclusions of an experimental campaign dedicated to the microstructural characterization and the determination of the local elastic properties of various natural and artificial corrosion product layers. The results of micro-indentation testing and Raman spectroscopy coupled with a semi-quantitative analysis have been presented for the whole set of investigated materials, from early-age (2 weeks) corrosion products to 660 years-old massive corroded samples....

  14. Top-metal ageing effects on electro-thermal distributions in an IGBT chip under short circuit conditions

    OpenAIRE

    MOUSSODJI, Jeff; Kociniewski, Thierry; Khatir, Zoubir

    2013-01-01

    A new electro-thermal model of a semiconductor device has been carried-out in order to investigate electrical and thermal mappings of power devices during critical operations. This model allows evaluating the effect of chip metallization ageing on temperature distributions and current sharing between cells within an IGBT chip during short-circuits operations. One of the failure mechanisms in IGBT is due to the switch on of the npnp parasitic thyristor. This phenomenon so called Latch-up and o...

  15. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte;

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to charac......An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  16. Quantum probability and quantum decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Yukalov, V I

    2016-01-01

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid for elementary events and for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.

  17. Feather corticosterone levels are related to age and future body condition, but not to subsequent fitness, in a declining migratory songbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boves, Than J.; Fairhurst, Graham D.; Rushing, Clark S.; Buehler, David A.

    2016-01-01

    In migratory species, breeding and non-breeding locations are geographically separate, yet the effects of conditions from one stage may carry over to affect a subsequent stage. Ideally, to understand the mechanisms and implications of ‘carry-over effects’, one would need to follow individuals throughout the year, quantify potential environmental causal factors and physiological mediators during multiple life-history stages, and measure downstream fitness. Owing to current limitations of tracking technology, this is impossible for small, long-distance migrants, so indirect methods to characterize carry-over effects are required. Corticosterone (CORT) is a suspected physiological mediator of carry-over effects, but when collected from blood it provides only a physiological snapshot at that point in time. When extracted from feathers, however, feather corticosterone (CORTf) provides a measure of responses to stressors from previous, and longer, time periods. We collected feathers grown during two life-history stages (post-breeding and subsequent wintering) from individuals of two age classes of a rapidly declining migratory songbird, the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), on their breeding grounds and quantified CORTf concentrations. We then monitored reproduction and survival of individuals and analysed relationships among CORTf and age, body condition and future fitness. Compared with older males, second-year males had higher CORTf concentrations during both stages. When controlling for age and year, body condition at capture was positively related to CORTf concentrations from winter (especially for older birds). However, we found no relationships between CORTf and fitness (as defined by reproduction and survival). Thus, elevated CORT may represent a beneficial physiological response (e.g. hyperphagia prior to migration), particularly for certain life-history stages, and may mediate the condition in which individuals transition between stages. But for those

  18. Registration probability of alphas in cellulose nitrate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Registration 'thresholds' of alpha particles in cellulose nitrate plastic present a statistical behaviour. The effect depends on etching conditions. It is particularly large in strong etching conditions, in which registration is transposed to high energies: up to 7.7 MeV for the conditions and energies studied. 'Registration probability' expresses more adequately the effect of registration constraints. The study of registration probability indicates that the 'target theory' can describe the effect. The parameters of target theory, m (number of targets) and D0 (the equivalent of biological dose D37) were found to be: m = 5 and D0 = 3 x 107 erg cm-3. Dose distribution around the trajectory of alphas of various energies is estimated. It is also deduced that track development takes place when the required dose for registration is deposited at a distance r >= 20 A from particle trajectory. (author)

  19. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment

  20. Cell culture condition-dependent impact of AGE-rich food extracts on kinase activation and cell survival on human fibroblasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nass, Norbert; Weissenberg, Kristian; Somoza, Veronika; Ruhs, Stefanie; Silber, Rolf-Edgar; Simm, Andreas

    2014-03-01

    Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are stable end products of the Maillard reaction. Effects of food extracts are often initially analysed in cellular test systems and it is not clear how different cell culture conditions might influence the results. Therefore, we compared the effects of two models for AGE-rich food, bread crust and coffee extract (CE) on WI-38 human lung fibroblasts under different cell culture conditions (sub-confluent versus confluent cells, with and without serum). WI-38 cells responded to coffee and bread crust extract (BCE) with a rapid phosphorylation of PKB (AKT), p42/44 MAPK (ERK 1/2) and p38 MAPK, strongly depending on culture conditions. BCE resulted in increased cell numbers, whereas CE appeared to be cytotoxic. When cell numbers under all culture conditions and treatments were correlated with kinase phosphorylation, the relation between phospho-p38 MAPK and phospho-AKT represented a good, cell culture condition-independent predictor of cell survival. PMID:24111510

  1. Arterial Ageing

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Seung-Jun; Park, Sung-Ha

    2013-01-01

    Arterial ageing is characterized by age associated degeneration and sclerosis of the media layer of the large arteries. However, besides ageing, clinical conditions, which enhance oxidative stress and inflammation act to accelerate the degree of arterial ageing. In this review, we summarized the pathophysiology and contributing factors that accelerate arterial ageing. Among them, we focused on hypertension, the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and vascular inflammation which are modifiabl...

  2. Age-Related Differences and Cognitive Correlates of Self-Reported and Direct Navigation Performance: The Effect of Real and Virtual Test Conditions Manipulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taillade, Mathieu; N'Kaoua, Bernard; Sauzéon, Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the effect of aging on direct navigation measures and self-reported ones according to the real-virtual test manipulation. Navigation (wayfinding tasks) and spatial memory (paper-pencil tasks) performances, obtained either in real-world or in virtual-laboratory test conditions, were compared between young (n = 32) and older (n = 32) adults who had self-rated their everyday navigation behavior (SBSOD scale). Real age-related differences were observed in navigation tasks as well as in paper-pencil tasks, which investigated spatial learning relative to the distinction between survey-route knowledge. The manipulation of test conditions (real vs. virtual) did not change these age-related differences, which are mostly explained by age-related decline in both spatial abilities and executive functioning (measured with neuropsychological tests). In contrast, elderly adults did not differ from young adults in their self-reporting relative to everyday navigation, suggesting some underestimation of navigation difficulties by elderly adults. Also, spatial abilities in young participants had a mediating effect on the relations between actual and self-reported navigation performance, but not for older participants. So, it is assumed that the older adults carried out the navigation task with fewer available spatial abilities compared to young adults, resulting in inaccurate self-estimates.

  3. Are Gestational Age, Birth Weight, and Birth Length Indicators of Favorable Fetal Growth Conditions? A Structural Equation Analysis of Filipino Infants

    OpenAIRE

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Noble, Mark D.; Adair, Linda S.

    2013-01-01

    The fetal origin hypothesis emphasizes the life-long health impacts of prenatal conditions. Birth weight, birth length, and gestational age are indicators of the fetal environment. However, these variables often have missing data and are subject to random and systematic errors caused by delays in measurement, differences in measurement instruments, and human error. With data from the Cebu (Philippines) Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey, we use structural equation models (SEMs), to expl...

  4. Influence of aging on the retention of elemental radioiodine by deep bed carbon filters under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No significant difference was found in the retention of I-131 loaded as I2, by various impregnated activated carbons that had been aged in the containment exhaust air of a pressurized water reactor over a period of 12 months. In all the cases, the I-131 passing through deep beds of carbon was in a nonelemental form. It was concluded that a minimum retention of 99.99%, as required by new guidelines for certain accident filters, can be equally well achieved with various carbons in deep beds

  5. Effect of Hot-Attribute Aged Ginger Tea on Chinese Medical Pulse Condition of Healthy Young Humans

    OpenAIRE

    Chao, Dan-Ping; Tyan, Chu-Chang; Chen, Jian-Jung; Hsieh, Ching-Liang; Sheen, Lee-Yan

    2011-01-01

    Young individuals typically have a dry-heat (燥熱 zào rè) constitution and feel overly stimulated. This study observes specialties on the right-bar (右關 yòu guān) section of the radial-arterial pulse of healthy young subjects, and investigates pulse variations induced by different attribute foods. Chinese medical doctors grouped thirty subjects into heat and non-heat constitutions. Each subject took water, aged ginger tea, and coconut water, well recognized as neutral, hot, and cold drinks, on d...

  6. Probability theory and its models

    OpenAIRE

    Humphreys, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This paper argues for the status of formal probability theory as a mathematical, rather than a scientific, theory. David Freedman and Philip Stark's concept of model based probabilities is examined and is used as a bridge between the formal theory and applications.

  7. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...

  8. Varieties of Belief and Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijck, D.J.N. van; Ghosh, S.; Szymanik, J.

    2015-01-01

    For reasoning about uncertain situations, we have probability theory, and we have logics of knowledge and belief. How does elementary probability theory relate to epistemic logic and the logic of belief? The paper focuses on the notion of betting belief, and interprets a language for knowledge and b

  9. Intermediate Probability Theory for Biomedical Engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Enderle, John

    2006-01-01

    This is the second in a series of three short books on probability theory and random processes for biomedical engineers. This volume focuses on expectation, standard deviation, moments, and the characteristic function. In addition, conditional expectation, conditional moments and the conditional characteristic function are also discussed. Jointly distributed random variables are described, along with joint expectation, joint moments, and the joint characteristic function. Convolution is also developed. A considerable effort has been made to develop the theory in a logical manner--developing sp

  10. Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Jian-hua

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.

  11. Probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.

  12. Calculation Model and Simulation of Warship Damage Probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TENG Zhao-xin; ZHANG Xu; YANG Shi-xing; ZHU Xiao-ping

    2008-01-01

    The combat efficiency of mine obstacle is the focus of the present research. Based on the main effects that mine obstacle has on the target warship damage probability such as: features of mines with maneuverability, the success rate of mine-laying, the hit probability, mine reliability and action probability, a calculation model of target warship mine-encounter probability is put forward under the condition that the route selection of target warships accords with even distribution and the course of target warships accords with normal distribution. And a damage probability model of mines with maneuverability to target warships is set up, a simulation way proved the model to be a high practicality.

  13. Effects of mother tree ages, different rooting mediums, light conditions and auxin treatments on rooting behaviour of Dalbergia sissoo branch cuttings

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bhupendra Singh; Rajendra Yadav; B.P.Bhatt

    2011-01-01

    Dalbergia sissoo Roxb. is one of the promising multipurpose tree species of South Asia. Most of the plantations of D. sissoo from seeds are facing severe threats due to the die-back disease, which ultimately causes death of this potential tree-species within a few months.Vegetative propagation could avoid the die-back disease. Thirty mother trees of different age-groups of D. sissoo were selected for evaluating the rooting behaviour of branch cuttings from D. sissoo as influenced by auxins (1AA or IBA at 100, 200, 500 mg.L-1), ages of mother trees (10, 4 and 2 years old) and different environment conditions, i.e., different mediums (soil and sand) or light conditions (in shade and open condition). The results show that application of IAA and IBA induced more numbers of cuttings (collected from 10-year-old mother trees) to root compared to control. Branch cuttings of D. sissoo collected from 10-year-old mother trees and planted in soil bed in open conditions had 100.0% of cuttings to root in IAA (100 mg.L-1) and IBA (200 mg.L-1) treatments. Both rooting medium (Soil and sand) influenced significantly (p<0.05) on rooting response of branch cuttings. Soil medium was found to achieve maximum no. of branch cuttings to root, compared to sand medium.

  14. Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Musick, R.

    1996-03-01

    Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rote learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neural networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.

  15. The bite-raised condition in aged SAMP8 mice reduces the expression of glucocorticoid receptors in the dorsal and ventral hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichihashi, Yukiko; Saito, Naonori; Arakawa, Yoko; Kurata, Chika; Iinuma, Mitsuo; Tamura, Yasuo; Iwaku, Fumihiko; Kubo, Kin-Ya

    2008-02-01

    In the present study, we examined whether the effects induced by the bite-raised condition on glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression differ between the dorsal and ventral hippocampus in SAMP8 mice. In the bite-raised condition, the number of GR-immunoreactive cells was significantly decreased in both the dorsal and ventral CA1 and dentate gyrus (DG) subfields of the hippocampus compared to control mice, as revealed by immunohistochemical analysis. The decrease in the number of GR-immunoreactive cells tended to be greater in the dorsal hippocampus than in the ventral hippocampus. Only in the DG subfield was there a significant difference in the number of GR-immunoreactive cells between the dorsal and ventral hippocampus. These findings suggest that in aged SAMP8 mice, the bite-raised condition decreases the number of GR-immunoreactive cells in both the dorsal and ventral hippocampus.

  16. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  17. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  18. Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-10

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  19. Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2007-01-01

    Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

  20. Micromechanical modelling of heterogeneous materials in transient conditions: contributions for the study of the ageing of structural components under service

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The modelling of the mechanical behaviour of structural materials is increasingly based on microstructural parameters. Within this framework, homogenisation methods have the advantage of providing deductive methods which, starting from the properties and space distribution of each constituent, deduce the effective properties of the heterogeneous material. Nevertheless, many applications make still difficult the use of homogenisation methods. It is in particular the case of structural materials presenting elastic-viscoplastic behaviours and subjected to both non-monotone and ageing loadings. To progress on the treatment by homogenisation of these useful situations constitutes precisely the main idea of the various contributions presented in this work.For linear elasticity, new expressions for the computation of the Eshelby tensor are first of all established in order to improve the efficiency of homogenisation methods usually used. Always for linear behaviours but now viscoelastic, various approximations associated with the use of the theorem of correspondence are studied and compared. The equivalence of one of these approximations (the so-called 'collocation method') with an internal variables formulation of the effective behaviour is shown. This internal variables formulation leads to exact results in some situations and strongly simplifies the treatment of ageing linear viscoelastic behaviours. In the case of elastic-viscoplastic behaviours, is added to the previous difficulty (viscoelastic coupling) that of the treatment of nonlinear behaviour. Comparisons made between various families of estimates make it possible to determine the effects of the various approximations needed to deal with these nonlinearities. An improvement is also proposed and implemented in a particular case while the extension of this internal variable formulation to nonlinear behaviours is discussed. Finally, full-field computations of microstructures are also tackled by considering the

  1. Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.

  2. Probability representation of classical states

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Man'ko, OV; Man'ko, [No Value; Pilyavets, OV

    2005-01-01

    Probability representation of classical states described by symplectic tomograms is discussed. Tomographic symbols of classical observables which are functions on phase-space are studied. Explicit form of kernel of commutative star-product of the tomographic symbols is obtained.

  3. Transition probabilities of Br II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengtson, R. D.; Miller, M. H.

    1976-01-01

    Absolute transition probabilities of the three most prominent visible Br II lines are measured in emission. Results compare well with Coulomb approximations and with line strengths extrapolated from trends in homologous atoms.

  4. Compliance with endogenous audit probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Konrad, Kai A.; Lohse, Tim; Qari, Salmai

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of endogenous audit probabilities on reporting behavior in a face-to-face compliance situation such as at customs. In an experimental setting in which underreporting has a higher expected payoff than truthful reporting we find an increase in compliance of about 80% if subjects have reason to believe that their behavior towards an officer influences their endogenous audit probability. Higher compliance is driven by considerations about how own appearance and perfo...

  5. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  6. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    CERN Document Server

    de Barros, J Acacio

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  7. Novel Bounds on Marginal Probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Mooij, Joris M.; Kappen, Hilbert J

    2008-01-01

    We derive two related novel bounds on single-variable marginal probability distributions in factor graphs with discrete variables. The first method propagates bounds over a subtree of the factor graph rooted in the variable, and the second method propagates bounds over the self-avoiding walk tree starting at the variable. By construction, both methods not only bound the exact marginal probability distribution of a variable, but also its approximate Belief Propagation marginal (``belief''). Th...

  8. Trajectory probability hypothesis density filter

    OpenAIRE

    García-Fernández, Ángel F.; Svensson, Lennart

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter for sets of trajectories. The resulting filter, which is referred to as trajectory probability density filter (TPHD), is capable of estimating trajectories in a principled way without requiring to evaluate all measurement-to-target association hypotheses. As the PHD filter, the TPHD filter is based on recursively obtaining the best Poisson approximation to the multitrajectory filtering density in the sense of minimising the K...

  9. Quantile Probability and Statistical Data Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Parzen, Emanuel

    2004-01-01

    Quantile and conditional quantile statistical thinking, as I have innovated it in my research since 1976, is outlined in this comprehensive survey and introductory course in quantile data analysis. We propose that a unification of the theory and practice of statistical methods of data modeling may be possible by a quantile perspective. Our broad range of topics of univariate and bivariate probability and statistics are best summarized by the key words. Two fascinating practical examples are g...

  10. Transition choice probabilities and welfare in ARUM's

    OpenAIRE

    de Palma, André; Kilani, Karim

    2009-01-01

    We study the descriptive and the normative consequences of price and/or other attributes changes in additive random utility models. We first derive expressions for the transition choice probabilities associated to these changes. A closed-form formula is obtained for the logit. We then use these expressions to compute the cumulative distribution functions of the compensating variation conditional on ex-ante and/or ex-post choices. The unconditional distribution is also provided. The conditiona...

  11. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  12. Scoliosis in school children aged from 7 to 8 and conditions in primary and secondary schools in Kragujevac

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đonović Nela

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Scoliosis, a lateral curvature of the spine, is the most frequent deformity of the spinal column. It is additionally aggravated by the inadequate environmental conditions in schools, such as unadjusted furniture, teaching aids and most of all, school bag and bad lighting. Material and methods. This investigation was carried out during the years 2005 and 2006 on the territory of the city of Kragujevac and included school children attending 22 primary and 8 secondary schools, whose medical records were obtained from school children health centres, the counseling centre for scoliosis at the Orthopedic Department of the Hospital in Kragujevac and the Institute of Public Health in Kragujevac. Results. The statistical analysis of these data showed that a significantly higher number of children with scoliosis was detected in 2005, being χ²=11.6, p<0.01 for primary schools. Scoliosis was more frequent in girls than in boys: in 2005 it was χ²=10.54, p<0.01 and in 2006 χ²=10.72, p<0.01 in primary schools, whereas no difference was found in secondary schools in 2005 -c2=4.14, p>0.05, but in 2006 scoliosis was more frequent in girls χ²=49.51, p<0.01. Conclusion. Scoliosis is extremely important in both primary and secondary schools and therefore, it is necessary to intensify preventive systematic examinations of school children.

  13. Establishing in situ conditions of Hanford waste tanks subjected to the aging effects of thermal degradation and creep of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some of the underground reinforced-concrete waste-storage tanks at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site have been exposed to high temperatures (greater than 200 degrees F) generated by radioactive liquid wastes. Establishment of the in situ conditions of these tanks is the first step toward their remediation. In this environment concrete damage can result in the form of mechanical property degradation, increased creep response, and cracking from thermal expansion and load redistribution. Regression analyses of data from tests on Hanford-concrete mix designs conducted in the mid-1970's provided mechanical property correlations that are a function of time at temperature. Creep compliance functions were developed on the bases of literature reviews and limited Hanford Site test data. The property-degradation correlations are thermal-history dependent because of the irreversible nature of the degradation processes. In addition, tests were conducted to determine the thermal expansion coefficient of the Hanford concrete. This paper discusses the implementation of these correlations into a nonlinear concrete constitutive subroutine that is linked to a general-purpose finite- element computer code. The methodology used to treat variable temperature histories is illustrated. A case study of the Hanford Site's buried, high-heat, single-shell, waste storage tank 241-C-106 illustrates the degradation history predicted over its service life. In addition, this paper provides a statistically based discussion of the effects of potential batch-to-batch variation of concrete strength. It addresses material property uncertainties, including the thermal-expansion coefficient

  14. Diagnostic value of ultrasonography in evaluation and management of acute abdominal conditions in the paediatric age group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Khalid

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aims of this study have been elaborated below: (1 to enumerate the common causes of acute abdominal emergencies by ultrasonography in paediatric patients; (2 to establish the diagnostic efficacy of ultrasonography in evaluation of acute abdominal conditions in children and to illustrate the associated ultrasonographic findings; (3 and, to discuss the role of ultrasonography in guiding the mode of intervention in these cases. Patients and Methods: This prospective study of ultrasonographic examination in 146 paediatric patients presenting with acute onset abdominal pain at the emergency/paediatric outpatient department section of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College & Hospital, Aligarh, between June 2006 and December 2007, using 3.75 MHz and 8 MHz transducers of the ADARA (Siemens machine. Results : Common causes of acute abdominal emergencies in pediatric patients as noted on ultrasonography included nonspecific pain (28%, abdominal abscess (21%, acute appendicitis (7% and intussusception (7%. Ultrasonography was diagnostic in 45.2% cases and supportive in 12.3% of the cases. As for as the final outcome, ultrasonography prevented surgery in almost 20% cases and laparotomy was avoided in 7% of the patients as ultrasound guided interventions in the form of abscess aspiration were carried out. Conclusion: Ultrasonography evaluation of children with acute abdominal pain, helps in making significant changes in the management plan of the patients, and also reveals various clinically unsuspected diseases.

  15. Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rosenkrantz, Walter A

    2008-01-01

    Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye

  16. Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lihong

    2005-01-01

    Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.

  17. Changes in the metabolic footprint of placental explant-conditioned medium cultured in different oxygen tensions from placentas of small for gestational age and normal pregnancies.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Horgan, R P

    2012-01-31

    Being born small for gestational age (SGA) confers significantly increased risks of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Accumulating evidence suggests that an SGA fetus results from a poorly perfused and abnormally developed placenta. Some of the placental features seen in SGA, such as abnormal cell turnover and impaired nutrient transport, can be reproduced by culture of placental explants in hypoxic conditions. Metabolic footprinting offers a hypothesis-generating strategy to investigate factors absorbed by and released from this tissue in vitro. Previously, metabolic footprinting of the conditioned culture media has identified differences in placental explants cultured under normoxic and hypoxic conditions and between normal pregnancies and those complicated by pre-eclampsia. In this study we aimed to examine the differences in the metabolic footprint of placental villous explants cultured at different oxygen (O(2)) tensions between women who deliver an SGA baby (n = 9) and those from normal controls (n = 8). Placental villous explants from cases and controls were cultured for 96 h in 1% (hypoxic), 6% (normoxic) and 20% (hyperoxic) O(2). Metabolic footprints were analysed by Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled to an electrospray hybrid LTQ-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS). 574 metabolite features showed significant difference between SGA and normal at one or more of the oxygen tensions. SGA explant media cultured under hypoxic conditions was observed, on a univariate level, to exhibit the same metabolic signature as controls cultured under normoxic conditions in 49% of the metabolites of interest, suggesting that SGA tissue is acclimatised to hypoxic conditions in vivo. No such behaviour was observed under hyperoxic culture conditions. Glycerophospholipid and tryptophan metabolism were highlighted as areas of particular interest.

  18. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  19. Submerged Medium Voltage Cable Systems at Nuclear Power Plants. A Review of Research Efforts Relevant to Aging Mechanisms and Condition Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Jason [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernstein, Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); White, II, Gregory Von [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Glover, Steven F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pena, Gary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Kenneth Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zutavern, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gelbard, Fred [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    In a submerged environment, power cables may experience accelerated insulation degradation due to water - related aging mechanisms . Direct contact with water or moisture intrusion in the cable insulation s ystem has been identified in the literature as a significant aging stressor that can affect performance and lifetime of electric cables . Progressive reduction of the dielectric strength is commonly a result of water treeing which involves the development of permanent hydrophilic structures in the insulation coinciding with the absorption of water into the cable . Water treeing is a phenomenon in which dendritic microvoids are formed in electric cable insulation due to electrochemic al reactions , electromechanical forces , and diffusion of contaminants over time . These reactions are caused by the combined effect s of water presence and high electrical stress es in the material . Water tree growth follow s a tree - like branching pattern , i ncreasing in volume and length over time . Although these cables can be "dried out," water tree degradation , specifically the growth of hydrophilic regions, is believed to be permanent and typically worsens over time. Based on established research , water treeing or water induced damage can occur in a variety of electric cables including XLPE, TR - XLPE and other insulating materials, such as EPR and butyl rubber . Once water trees or water induced damage form, the dielectric strength of an insulation materia l will decrease gradually with time as the water trees grow in length, which could eventually result in failure of the insulating material . Under wet conditions or i n submerged environments , several environmental and operational parameters can influence w ater tree initiation and affect water tree growth . These parameters include voltage cycling, field frequency, temperature, ion concentration and chemistry, type of insula tion material , and the characteristics of its defects. In this effort, a review of academic

  20. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  1. Born Rule and Noncontextual Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Logiurato, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    The probabilistic rule that links the formalism of Quantum Mechanics (QM) to the real world was stated by Born in 1926. Since then, there were many attempts to derive the Born postulate as a theorem, Gleason's one being the most prominent. The Gleason derivation, however, is generally considered as rather intricate and its physical meaning, in particular in relation with the noncontextuality of probability (NP), is not quite evident. More recently, we are witnessing a revival of interest on possible demonstrations of the Born rule, like Zurek's and Deutsch's based on the decoherence and on the theory of decisions, respectively. Despite an ongoing debate about the presence of hidden assumptions and circular reasonings, these have the merit of prompting more physically oriented approaches to the problem. Here we suggest a new proof of the Born rule based on the noncontextuality of probability. Within the theorem we also demonstrate the continuity of probability with respect to the amplitudes, which has been sug...

  2. Probability on real Lie algebras

    CERN Document Server

    Franz, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.

  3. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  4. High levels of prevalence related to age and body condition: host-parasite interactions in a water frog Pelophylax kl hispanicus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Comas

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Host traits can significantly influence patterns of infection and disease. Here, we studied the helminths parasitizing the Italian edible frog Pelophylax kl. hispanicus, giving special attention to the relationship between parasites and host traits such as sex, snout vent length, weight and body condition. The helminth community was composed of seven species: three trematode species (Diplodiscus subclavatus, Gorgodera cygnoides, Pleurogenes claviger, three nematode species (Icosiella neglecta, Oswaldocruzia filiformis, Rhabdias sp. and one acanthocephalan species (Pomphorhychus laevis. We found that prevalence was positively correlated with snout-vent length and weight, but did not differ with body condition or sex. We found that prevalence and mean species richness increased with age. Our results show that abundance of Icosiella neglecta was positively correlated with higher values for host body condition. In fact, we found that high prevalence and mean species richness do not necessarily imply poorer body condition in the parasitized host. In conclusion, our results show that the helminth community in this taxon has great diversity, and this host-parasite system seems to be evolved to low levels of virulence, helminths maintaining a commensal relationship with this frog.

  5. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  6. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  7. Probability as a physical motive

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, P

    2007-01-01

    Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking the physical principle of Maximum Entropy Production ("MEP") to the information-theoretical "MaxEnt" principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoretical physics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physical processes, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand "the adjacent possible" as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability should be recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order and temporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the second law of thermodynamics.

  8. Fusion Probability in Dinuclear System

    CERN Document Server

    Hong, Juhee

    2015-01-01

    Fusion can be described by the time evolution of a dinuclear system with two degrees of freedom, the relative motion and transfer of nucleons. In the presence of the coupling between two collective modes, we solve the Fokker-Planck equation in a locally harmonic approximation. The potential of a dinuclear system has the quasifission barrier and the inner fusion barrier, and the escape rates can be calculated by the Kramers' model. To estimate the fusion probability, we calculate the quasifission rate and the fusion rate. We investigate the coupling effects on the fusion probability and the cross section of evaporation residue.

  9. Probable age of Autolycus and calibration of lunar stratigraphy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryder, G.; Bogard, D.; Garrison, D.

    1991-01-01

    Ar-39 - Ar-40 analyses of three petrographically distinct, shocked Apollo 15 KREEP (i.e., high K, rare earth element, P, and other trace element contents) basalt samples demonstrate that a major impact event affected all three samples at about 2.1 Ga. The Copernican System craters Aristillus and Autolycus are to the north. Autolycus, the older of the two, is in a particularly appropriate terrain and is the most likely source of the 2.1 Ga heating and delivery event. With this calibration point, and if Autolycus really is a Copernican crater, the Copernican System lasted twice as long as has previously been suggested. Furthermore, the moon was not subjected to a constant cratering rate over the past 3 billion years; the average rate in the preceding Eratosthenian must have been twice that in the Copernican.

  10. Metamorphic conditions and CHIME monazite ages of Late Eocene to Late Oligocene high-temperature Mogok metamorphic rocks in central Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maw Maw Win; Enami, Masaki; Kato, Takenori

    2016-03-01

    The high temperature (T)/pressure (P) regional Mogok metamorphic belt is situated in central Myanmar, and is mainly composed of pelitic gneisses, amphibolites, marbles, and calc-silicate rocks. The garnet-biotite-plagioclase-sillimanite-quartz assemblage and its partial system suggest equilibrium P/T conditions of 0.6-1.0 GPa/780-850 °C for the peak metamorphic stage, and 0.3-0.5 GPa/600-680 °C for the exhumation and hydration stage. Monazite grains show complex compositional zoning consisting of three segments-I, II, and III. Taking into consideration the monazite zoning and relative misfit curves, the calculated chemical Th-U-total Pb isochron method (CHIME) monazite age data (284 spot analyses) indicated four age components: 49.3 ± 2.6-49.9 ± 7.9, 37.8 ± 1.0-38.1 ± 1.7, 28.0 ± 0.8-28.8 ± 1.6, and 23.7 ± 1.3 Ma (2σ level). The ages of the Late Eocene and Late Oligocene epochs were interpreted as the peak metamorphic stage of upper-amphibolite and/or granulite facies and the postdated hydration stage, respectively.

  11. Comparison of Rehabilitation Outcomes for Long Term Neurological Conditions: A Cohort Analysis of the Australian Rehabilitation Outcomes Centre Dataset for Adults of Working Age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynne Turner-Stokes

    Full Text Available To describe and compare outcomes from in-patient rehabilitation (IPR in working-aged adults across different groups of long-term neurological conditions, as defined by the UK National Service Framework.Analysis of a large Australian prospectively collected dataset for completed IPR episodes (n = 28,596 from 2003-2012.De-identified data for adults (16-65 years with specified neurological impairment codes were extracted, cleaned and divided into 'Sudden-onset' conditions: (Stroke (n = 12527, brain injury (n = 7565, spinal cord injury (SCI (n = 3753, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS (n = 805 and 'Progressive/stable' conditions (Progressive (n = 3750 and Cerebral palsy (n = 196. Key outcomes included Functional Independence Measure (FIM scores, length of stay (LOS, and discharge destination.Mean LOS ranged from 21-57 days with significant group differences in gender, source of admission and discharge destination. All six groups showed significant change (p<0.001 between admission and discharge that was likely to be clinically important across a range of items. Significant between-group differences were observed for FIM Motor and Cognitive change scores (Kruskal-Wallis p<0.001, and item-by-item analysis confirmed distinct patterns for each of the six groups. SCI and GBS patients were generally at the ceiling of the cognitive subscale. The 'Progressive/stable' conditions made smaller improvements in FIM score than the 'Sudden-onset conditions', but also had shorter LOS.All groups made gains in independence during admission, although pattern of change varied between conditions, and ceiling effects were observed in the FIM-cognitive subscale. Relative cost-efficiency between groups can only be indirectly inferred. Limitations of the current dataset are discussed, together with opportunities for expansion and further development.

  12. Blocking glucocorticoid receptors at adolescent age prevents enhanced freezing between repeated cue-exposures after conditioned fear in adult mice raised under chronic early life stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, J Marit; Ter Horst, Judith P; Loi, Manila; den Blaauwen, Jan; Bangert, Eline; Fernández, Guillén; Joëls, Marian; Oitzl, Melly S; Krugers, Harm J

    2016-09-01

    Early life adversity can have long-lasting impact on learning and memory processes and increase the risk to develop stress-related psychopathologies later in life. In this study we investigated (i) how chronic early life stress (ELS) - elicited by limited nesting and bedding material from postnatal day 2 to 9 - affects conditioned fear in adult mice and (ii) whether these effects can be prevented by blocking glucocorticoid receptors (GRs) at adolescent age. In adult male and female mice, ELS did not affect freezing behavior to the first tone 24h after training in an auditory fear-conditioning paradigm. Exposure to repeated tones 24h after training also resulted in comparable freezing behavior in ELS and control mice, both in males and females. However, male (but not female) ELS compared to control mice showed significantly more freezing behavior between the tone-exposures, i.e. during the cue-off periods. Intraperitoneal administration of the GR antagonist RU38486 during adolescence (on postnatal days 28-30) fully prevented enhanced freezing behavior during the cue-off period in adult ELS males. Western blot analysis revealed no effects of ELS on hippocampal expression of glucocorticoid receptors, neither at postnatal day 28 nor at adult age, when mice were behaviorally tested. We conclude that ELS enhances freezing behavior in adult mice in a potentially safe context after cue-exposure, which can be normalized by brief blockade of glucocorticoid receptors during the critical developmental window of adolescence. PMID:27246249

  13. Success Probability Assessment Based on Information Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Chen

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian method is superior to the classical statistical method on condition of small sample test. However, its evaluation results are not so good if subjective prior information is intervened. The success probability assessment about the success or failure tests of weapon products focussed in this paper, and a fusing evaluation method based on information entropy is proposed. Firstly, data from equivalent surrogate tests is converted into the prior information of an equivalent source by the information entropy theory. Secondly, the prior distribution of the success probability is identified via the Bootstrap method, and the posterior distribution is provided by the Bayesian method with the information of prototype tests in succession. Lastly, an example is given, and the results show that the proposed method is effective and valuable.Defence Science Journal, 2010, 60(3, pp.271-275, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.60.353

  14. Skin Care and Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page please turn Javascript on. Skin Care and Aging How Aging Affects Skin Your skin changes with age. It ... if they bother you. See additional resources on aging skin, including information on treatment options, specific conditions, ...

  15. Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Mingxuan; Lebanon, Guy; Kidwell, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computat...

  16. Pollock on probability in epistemology

    OpenAIRE

    Fitelson, Branden

    2010-01-01

    In Thinking and Acting John Pollock offers some criticisms of Bayesian epistemology, and he defends an alternative understanding of the role of probability in epistemology. Here, I defend the Bayesian against some of Pollock's criticisms, and I discuss a potential problem for Pollock's alternative account.

  17. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  18. Quantum correlations; quantum probability approach

    OpenAIRE

    Majewski, W A

    2014-01-01

    This survey gives a comprehensive account of quantum correlations understood as a phenomenon stemming from the rules of quantization. Centered on quantum probability it describes the physical concepts related to correlations (both classical and quantum), mathematical structures, and their consequences. These include the canonical form of classical correlation functionals, general definitions of separable (entangled) states, definition and analysis of quantumness of correlations, description o...

  19. Probability representations of fuzzy systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongxing

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.

  20. Asbestos and Probable Microscopic Polyangiitis

    OpenAIRE

    George S Rashed Philteos; Kelly Coverett; Rajni Chibbar; Ward, Heather A; Cockcroft, Donald W

    2004-01-01

    Several inorganic dust lung diseases (pneumoconioses) are associated with autoimmune diseases. Although autoimmune serological abnormalities are common in asbestosis, clinical autoimmune/collagen vascular diseases are not commonly reported. A case of pulmonary asbestosis complicated by perinuclear-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (myeloperoxidase) positive probable microscopic polyangiitis (glomerulonephritis, pericarditis, alveolitis, multineuritis multiplex) is described and the possible...

  1. A Novel Approach to Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kafri, Oded

    2016-01-01

    When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...

  2. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  3. Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerstin Andersson

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The problem  addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts  of guessing  a word of a certain  length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations  to a natural language are considered.  The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations  are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses.  Several  kinds of approximations  are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic  sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated  within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions.  For many probability  distributions,  the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion  of guesses needed on average compared to the total number  decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic  expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.

  4. Transition probability and preferential gauge

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, C.Y.

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concerned with whether or not the preferential gauge can ensure the uniqueness and correctness of results obtained from the standard time-dependent perturbation theory, in which the transition probability is formulated in terms of matrix elements of Hamiltonian.

  5. Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component

  6. Estimation in Surveys Using Conditional Inclusion Probabilities: Simple Random Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Tillé, Yves

    2016-01-01

    Dans les enquêtes par sondage, une information auxiliaire sur l'ensemble de la population est souvent disponible. Le but de cet article est de développer une méthode qui permet de prendre en compte cette information auxiliaire à l'étape de l'estimation au moyen d'un ajustement du biais conditionnel. L'idée de base est de tenter de construire un estimateur sans biais conditionnel. Quatre estimateurs ayant un faible biais conditionnel sont proposés. On montre ensuite que beaucoup d'estimateurs ...

  7. Submerged Medium Voltage Cable Systems at Nuclear Power Plants. A Review of Research Efforts Relevant to Aging Mechanisms and Condition Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Jason [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernstein, Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); White, II, Gregory Von [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Glover, Steven F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pena, Gary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Kenneth Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zutavern, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gelbard, Fred [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    In a submerged environment, power cables may experience accelerated insulation degradation due to water - related aging mechanisms . Direct contact with water or moisture intrusion in the cable insulation s ystem has been identified in the literature as a significant aging stressor that can affect performance and lifetime of electric cables . Progressive reduction of the dielectric strength is commonly a result of water treeing which involves the development of permanent hydrophilic structures in the insulation coinciding with the absorption of water into the cable . Water treeing is a phenomenon in which dendritic microvoids are formed in electric cable insulation due to electrochemic al reactions , electromechanical forces , and diffusion of contaminants over time . These reactions are caused by the combined effect s of water presence and high electrical stress es in the material . Water tree growth follow s a tree - like branching pattern , i ncreasing in volume and length over time . Although these cables can be "dried out," water tree degradation , specifically the growth of hydrophilic regions, is believed to be permanent and typically worsens over time. Based on established research , water treeing or water induced damage can occur in a variety of electric cables including XLPE, TR - XLPE and other insulating materials, such as EPR and butyl rubber . Once water trees or water induced damage form, the dielectric strength of an insulation materia l will decrease gradually with time as the water trees grow in length, which could eventually result in failure of the insulating material . Under wet conditions or i n submerged environments , several environmental and operational parameters can influence w ater tree initiation and affect water tree growth . These parameters include voltage cycling, field frequency, temperature, ion concentration and chemistry, type of insula tion material , and the characteristics of its defects. In this effort, a review of academic

  8. Identifying sources of heterogeneity in capture probabilities: An example using the Great Tit Parus major

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.

    1999-01-01

    Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.

  9. Probability of Occurrence of Soil Disturbances during Timber Harvesting

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with the probability of occurrence of soil disturbance during timber harvesting operations. Studies were carried out in southern Poland in 26 stands differing in terrain, skidding method, stand age, amount of timber harvested, forest site type, stocking, and soil type. In each stand the occurrence of the following forms of disturbances was measured: soil surface disturbance, soil cover tearing off and soil compaction. Logistic regression models describing the probability of o...

  10. Classical Probability and Quantum Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Malley

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a contact problem between classical probability and quantum outcomes. Thus, a standard result from classical probability on the existence of joint distributions ultimately implies that all quantum observables must commute. An essential task here is a closer identification of this conflict based on deriving commutativity from the weakest possible assumptions, and showing that stronger assumptions in some of the existing no-go proofs are unnecessary. An example of an unnecessary assumption in such proofs is an entangled system involving nonlocal observables. Another example involves the Kochen-Specker hidden variable model, features of which are also not needed to derive commutativity. A diagram is provided by which user-selected projectors can be easily assembled into many new, graphical no-go proofs.

  11. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  12. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  13. Knot probabilities in random diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt

    2016-10-01

    We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.

  14. Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

  15. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  16. Probability, Information and Statistical Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzemsky, A. L.

    2016-03-01

    In this short survey review we discuss foundational issues of the probabilistic approach to information theory and statistical mechanics from a unified standpoint. Emphasis is on the inter-relations between theories. The basic aim is tutorial, i.e. to carry out a basic introduction to the analysis and applications of probabilistic concepts to the description of various aspects of complexity and stochasticity. We consider probability as a foundational concept in statistical mechanics and review selected advances in the theoretical understanding of interrelation of the probability, information and statistical description with regard to basic notions of statistical mechanics of complex systems. It includes also a synthesis of past and present researches and a survey of methodology. The purpose of this terse overview is to discuss and partially describe those probabilistic methods and approaches that are used in statistical mechanics with the purpose of making these ideas easier to understanding and to apply.

  17. Subjective probability and quantum certainty

    CERN Document Server

    Caves, C M; Schack, R; Caves, Carlton M.; Fuchs, Christopher A.; Schack, Ruediger

    2006-01-01

    In the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics, probabilities--and thus quantum states--represent an agent's degrees of belief, rather than corresponding to objective properties of physical systems. In this paper we investigate the concept of certainty in quantum mechanics. Our analysis reveals fundamental differences between our Bayesian approach on the one hand and the Copenhagen interpretation and similar interpretations of quantum states on the other hand. We first review the main arguments for the general claim that probabilities always represent degrees of belief. We then show that a quantum state prepared by some physical device always depends on an agent's prior beliefs, implying that with-certainty predictions derived from such a state also depend on the agent's prior beliefs. Quantum certainty is therefore always some agent's certainty. Conversely, if facts about an experimental setup could imply certainty for a measurement outcome, that outcome would effectively correspond to a preexisting system pr...

  18. The probability of extraterrestrial life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since beginning of times, human beings need to live in the company of other humans, beings developing what we now know as human societies. According to this idea there has been speculation, specially in the present century, about the possibility that human society has company of the other thinking creatures living in other planets somewhere in our galaxy. In this talk we will only use reliable data from scientific observers in order to establish a probability. We will explain the analysis on the physico-chemical principles which allow the evolution of organic molecules in our planet and establish these as the forerunners of life in our planet. On the other hand, the physical process governing stars, their characteristics and their effects on planets will also be explained as well as the amount of energy that a planet receives, its mass, atmosphere and kind of orbit. Finally, considering all this information, a probability of life from outer space will be given. (Author)

  19. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  20. Tight Bernoulli tail probability bounds

    OpenAIRE

    Dzindzalieta, Dainius

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the dissertation is to prove universal tight bounds for deviation from the mean probability inequalities for functions of random variables. Universal bounds shows that they are uniform with respect to some class of distributions and quantity of variables and other parameters. The bounds are called tight, if we can construct a sequence of random variables, such that the upper bounds are achieved. Such inequalities are useful for example in insurance mathematics, for constructing...

  1. Asbestos and Probable Microscopic Polyangiitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George S Rashed Philteos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Several inorganic dust lung diseases (pneumoconioses are associated with autoimmune diseases. Although autoimmune serological abnormalities are common in asbestosis, clinical autoimmune/collagen vascular diseases are not commonly reported. A case of pulmonary asbestosis complicated by perinuclear-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (myeloperoxidase positive probable microscopic polyangiitis (glomerulonephritis, pericarditis, alveolitis, multineuritis multiplex is described and the possible immunological mechanisms whereby asbestosis fibres might be relevant in induction of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies are reviewed in the present report.

  2. Relative transition probabilities of cobalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig, R. A.; Miller, M. H.

    1974-01-01

    Results of determinations of neutral-cobalt transition probabilities measured relative to Co I 4150.43 A and Co II 4145.15 A, using a gas-driven shock tube as the spectroscopic light source. Results are presented for 139 Co I lines in the range from 3940 to 6640 A and 11 Co II lines in the range from 3840 to 4730 A, which are estimated to have reliabilities ranging from 8 to 50%.

  3. Optimal Reinsurance with Heterogeneous Reference Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim J. Boonen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang’s premium principle. The novel contribution is that we allow for heterogeneity in the beliefs regarding the underlying probability distribution. We characterize layer-reinsurance as an optimal reinsurance contract. Moreover, we characterize layer-reinsurance as optimal contracts when the insurer faces costs of holding regulatory capital. We illustrate this in cases where both firms use the Value-at-Risk or the conditional Value-at-Risk.

  4. Development of intersensory function: age-related differences in stimulus selection of multimodal compounds in rats as revealed by Pavlovian conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellon, R C; Kraemer, P J; Spear, N E

    1991-10-01

    Preweanling and adult rats were exposed to Pavlovian stimulus pairings with lights, tones, and light-tone compounds as conditional stimuli (CSs). Tone intensity was varied. As was found in previous studies using flavor CSs, odor CSs, or both, in which significant overshadowing or potentiation occurred to an element of a compound, overshadowing was less likely and potentiation more likely for preweanlings than for adults. Several experiments supported the view that these effects reflect an age-related difference in the controlling properties of stimuli: Young rats are more disposed to encode multimodal compounds on the basis of amodal intensity, whereas their elders are more likely to encode modality-specific properties of light and sound. Differential reinforcement in the presence of lights, tones, and light-tone compounds made preweanlings' stimulus selection appear more adultlike and may be a cause of development of intersensory function.

  5. Physical Condition, Sex, and Age-Class of Eastern Red-Backed Salamanders (Plethodon cinereus in Forested and Open Habitats of West Virginia, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Breanna L. Riedel

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonforested habitats such as open fields and pastures have been considered unsuitable for desiccation-prone woodland salamanders such as the Eastern Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus. Recent research has suggested that Plethodon cinereus may not only disperse across but also reside within open habitats including fields, meadows, and pastures. However, presence and high densities of P. cinereus within agriculturally disturbed habitats may be misleading if these populations exhibit atypical demographic characteristics or decreased physical condition relative to forest populations. We surveyed artificial cover boards from 2004-2005 to compare physical condition, sex ratios, and age-class structure of P. cinereus among woodland, woodland-meadow edge, silvopasture, and meadow sites in the central Appalachian Mountains of southern West Virginia. Physical condition of salamanders was not significantly different among the four habitats. Furthermore, adult sex ratios of P. cinereus typically were not significantly different from 1 : 1 and were similar between forested and non-forested sites, although populations within silvopastures were biased towards females. However, adult salamanders were significantly more abundant than juveniles in all habitat types, with differences most pronounced within meadow habitats. Our study indicates that relatively small, non-forested habitats such as silvopastures and meadows may not adversely affect the overall physical condition or sex ratios of Plethodon cinereus. However, the paucity of juveniles within disturbed meadows indicates that these agriculturally modified habitats may negatively impact reproduction or that immature salamanders are at a physiological or competitive disadvantage in comparison to adults, particularly when surface cover is limited.

  6. Evaluation of the Permanent Deformations and Aging Conditions of Batu Pahat Soft Clay-Modified Asphalt Mixture by Using a Dynamic Creep Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Allam A. M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the permanent deformation and aging conditions of BatuPahat soft clay–modified asphalt mixture, also called BatuPahat soft clay (BPSC particles; these particles are used in powder form as an additive to hot-mix asphalt mixture. In this experiment, five percentage compositions of BPSC (0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8% by weight of bitumen were used. A novel design was established to modify the hot-mix asphalt by using the Superpave method for each additive ratio. Several laboratory tests evaluating different properties, such as indirect tensile strength, resilient stiffness modulus, and dynamic creep, was conducted to assess the performance of the samples mixed through the Superpave method. In the resilient modulus test, fatigue and rutting resistance were reduced by the BPSC particles. The added BPSC particles increased the indirect tensile strength. Among the mixtures, 4% BPSC particles yielded the highest performance. In the dynamic creep test, 4% BPSC particles added to the unaged and short-term aged specimens also showed the highest performance. Based on these results, our conclusion is that the BPSC particles can alleviate the permanent deformation (rutting of roads.

  7. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  8. The aging heart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klausner, S C; Schwartz, A B

    1985-02-01

    Pathologic studies of the myocardium and valvular structures have failed to provide convincing evidence of gross or microscopic changes that can be ascribed to aging alone. Lipofuscin accumulation and basophilic degeneration in cardiac muscle cells appear to be the most consistent findings associated with aging, but they are found in other conditions. Without doubt, pathologic changes in the myocardium, valves, and coronary arteries are found more frequently in the hearts of elderly persons, but those changes are caused by disease processes associated with an aging population rather than the aging process itself. Both the sinus and atrioventricular nodes decrease in size with age owing to a loss of cellularity. These structures become infiltrated with collagen, elastic tissue, and reticular fibers. Some have found infiltration also with fat. Amyloid deposition, basophilic degeneration of cells, and lipofuscin accumulation occur but probably do not cause functional abnormalities. Similar but less dramatic changes occur in the bundle of His and individual bundle branches. Most of the data suggests that these aging changes are not due to vascular insufficiency. Age-related changes in intrinsic mechanical function have been identified as a prolongation of contraction duration, decreased inotropic responses to catecholamines and cardiac glycosides, and an increase in mechanical refractoriness. Other possible age-related changes include alterations in relaxation, which may or may not be independent of the prolongation of contraction, and changes in the viscoelastic properties of cardiac muscle. When examined in the context of the components of a model of excitation-contraction coupling, changes in action potential duration and the function of the sarcoplasmic reticulum emerge as the most likely bases for the changes. The electrical characteristics of sinus, atrioventricular, and His-Purkinje cells as well as atrial and ventricular muscle cells change with age. The sinus

  9. Instability of Wave Trains and Wave Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babanin, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    Centre for Ocean Engineering, Science and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia, ababanin@swin.edu.au Design criteria in ocean engineering, whether this is one in 50 years or one in 5000 years event, are hardly ever based on measurements, and rather on statistical distributions of relevant metocean properties. Of utmost interest is the tail of distribution, that is rare events such as the highest waves with low probability. Engineers have long since realised that the superposition of linear waves with narrow-banded spectrum as depicted by the Rayleigh distribution underestimates the probability of extreme wave heights and crests, which is a critical shortcoming as far as the engineering design is concerned. Ongoing theoretical and experimental efforts have been under way for decades to address this issue. Typical approach is the treating all possible waves in the ocean or at a particular location as a single ensemble for which some comprehensive solution can be obtained. The oceanographic knowledge, however, now indicates that no single and united comprehensive solution is available. We would expect the probability distributions of wave height to depend on a) whether the waves are at the spectral peak or at the tail; b) on wave spectrum and mean steepness in the wave field; c) on the directional distribution of the peak waves; d) on whether the waves are in deep water, in intermediate depth or in shallow water; e) on wave breaking; f) on the wind, particularly if it is very strong, and on the currents if they have suitable horizontal gradients. Probability distributions in the different circumstances according to these groups of conditions should be different, and by combining them together the inevitable scatter is introduced. The scatter and the accuracy will not improve by increasing the bulk data quality and quantity, and it hides the actual distribution of extremes. The groups have to be separated and their probability

  10. Age and depositional conditions of the marine vertebrate concentration Lagerstätte at Gomez Farías, southern Coahuila, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zell, Patrick; Beckmann, Seija; Stinnesbeck, Wolfgang

    2014-12-01

    A 1.5 m thick coquinite discovered in the Upper Jurassic La Casita Formation of the Sierra El Jabalà near Gomez Farías, Coahuila, northeastern Mexico qualifies as a concentration Lagerstâtte owing to its richness in marine vertebrates. Ichthyosaurs, pliosaurs and crocodilians were described to some detail, but other taxa remained unstudied and the precise biostratigraphical age, as well as paleoecological conditions that led to the formation of the fossil deposit, are not known in detail. Here we describe ammonites, aptychi, bivalves and radiolarians, which allow for a stratigraphic assignation of the deposit to the uppermost Kimmeridgian Beckeri Zone. The unit under consideration accumulated in a hemipelagic mud bottom environment during a period of time characterized by low oxygen conditions, while a short term benthic colonization phase near the top of the coquinite corresponds to increased oxygen availability. A combination of upwelling, bottom currents, winnowing, offshore winds, storm events, circulatory nutrient traps, low oxygenated bottom waters, and a transgressional regime with reduced net sedimentation was crucial factors for the subsequent concentration of fossils, as well as for marine phosphate generation and phosphorus migration.

  11. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  12. Methodology for assessing probability of extreme hydrologic events coincidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prohaska Stevan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the presented research is improvement of methodology for probability calculation of coinciding occurrence of historic floods and droughts in the same year. The original procedure was developed in order to determine the occurrence probability of such an extreme historic event. There are two phases in calculation procedure for assessment of both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year. In the first phase outliers are detected as indicators of extreme events, their return periods are calculated and series' statistics adjusted. In the second phase conditional probabilities are calculated: empirical points are plotted, and both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year is assessed based on the plot. Outlier detection is performed for the territory of Serbia. Results are shown as maps of regions (basins prone to floods, hydrologic drought, or both. Step-by-step numeric example is given for assessing conditional probability of occurrence of flood and drought for GS Raska on the river Raska. Results of assessment of conditional probability in two more cases are given for combination of extreme flood and 30 day minimum flow.

  13. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  14. Nonlocality, Bell's Ansatz and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kracklauer, A F

    2006-01-01

    Quantum Mechanics lacks an intuitive interpretation, which is the cause of a generally formalistic approach to its use. This in turn has led to a certain insensitivity to the actual meaning of many words used in its description and interpretation. Herein, we analyze carefully the possible meanings of those terms used in analysis of EPR's contention, that Quantum Mechanics is incomplete, as well as Bell's work descendant therefrom. As a result, many inconsistencies and errors in contemporary discussions of nonlocality, as well as in Bell's Ansatz with respect to the laws of probability, are identified. Evading these errors precludes serious conflicts between Quantum Mechanics and Special Relativity and Philosophy.

  15. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  16. Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Mingxuan; Kidwell, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computation schemes using combinatorial properties of generating functions. We demonstrate our approach with several case studies involving real world movie recommendation data. The results are comparable with state-of-the-art techniques while also providing probabilistic preference estimates outside the scope of traditional recommender systems.

  17. Non-neuronal, but atropine-sensitive ileal contractile responses to short-chain fatty acids: age-dependent desensitization and restoration under inflammatory conditions in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yajima, Masako; Kimura, Shunsuke; Karaki, Shinichiro; Nio-Kobayashi, Junko; Tsuruta, Takeshi; Kuwahara, Atsukazu; Yajima, Takaji; Iwanaga, Toshihiko

    2016-04-01

    Intestinal epithelial cells sense short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) to secrete non-neuronal acetylcholine (ACh). However, the roles of luminalSCFAs and epithelialACh under normal and pathological conditions remain unknown. We examined ileal contractile responses toSCFAs at different ages and their mucosal cholinergic alterations under inflammatory conditions. Ileal contractile responses toSCFAs in 1-day-old pups to 7-week-old mice were compared using an isotonic transducer, and responses to an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) were analyzed in 7-week-old mice. ThemRNAexpression levels of aSCFAactivate free fatty acid receptor, acetylcholinesterase (AChE), choline acetyltransferase (Chat), and choline transporter-like protein 4 (CTL4) were measured using real-time quantitativeRT-PCRAChE was analyzed by histochemical and optical enzymatic assays. Atropine-sensitive ileal contractile responses toSCFAs occurred in all 1-day-old pups, but were frequently desensitized after the weaning period. These contractile responses were not inhibited by tetrodotoxin and did not appear when the mucosal layer had been scraped off. Contractile desensitization in 7-week-old mice was abolished in the presence of theAChE inhibitor, eserine, which was consistent with increasedAChE activity after weaning. Ileal contractions toSCFAs in adult mice were restored byLPS, which significantly increased the epithelialmRNAexpression of Chat andCTL4. Atropine-sensitive ileal contractile responses toSCFAs constitutively occur in the newborn period, and are desensitized during developmental stages following the up-regulated expression ofAChE in the villous mucosa, but are restored under inflammatory conditions possibly via the release of epithelialACh. PMID:27053293

  18. EVOLUTION OF CHEMICAL CONDITIONS AND ESTIMATED SOLUBILITY CONTROLS ON RADIONUCLIDES IN THE RESIDUAL WASTE LAYER DURING POST-CLOSURE AGING OF HIGH-LEVEL WASTE TANKS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denham, M.; Millings, M.

    2012-08-28

    This document provides information specific to H-Area waste tanks that enables a flow and transport model with limited chemical capabilities to account for varying waste release from the tanks through time. The basis for varying waste release is solubilities of radionuclides that change as pore fluids passing through the waste change in composition. Pore fluid compositions in various stages were generated by simulations of tank grout degradation. The first part of the document describes simulations of the degradation of the reducing grout in post-closure tanks. These simulations assume flow is predominantly through a water saturated porous medium. The infiltrating fluid that reacts with the grout is assumed to be fluid that has passed through the closure cap and into the tank. The results are three stages of degradation referred to as Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. A reaction path model was used so that the transitions between each stage are noted by numbers of pore volumes of infiltrating fluid reacted. The number of pore volumes to each transition can then be converted to time within a flow and transport model. The bottoms of some tanks in H-Area are below the water table requiring a different conceptual model for grout degradation. For these simulations the reacting fluid was assumed to be 10% infiltrate through the closure cap and 90% groundwater. These simulations produce an additional four pore fluid compositions referred to as Conditions A through D and were intended to simulate varying degrees of groundwater influence. The most probable degradation path for the submerged tanks is Condition C to Condition D to Oxidized Region III and eventually to Condition A. Solubilities for Condition A are estimated in the text for use in sensitivity analyses if needed. However, the grout degradation simulations did not include sufficient pore volumes of infiltrating fluid for the grout to evolve to Condition A. Solubility controls for use

  19. Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2010-01-01

    The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

  20. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  1. Lectures on probability and statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  2. Effects of Ages of Donors and Conditions of Preserving Ovaries on Porcine Oocytes Maturation in vitro and Efficiency of Parthenogenetic Activation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XING Feng-ying; WU Zhong-hong; ZENG Shen-ming; LIU Guo-shi; ZHU Shi-en; ZHANG Zhong-cheng; CHEN Xue-jin

    2004-01-01

    Effects of different ages of donors and different conditions of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and efficiency of parthenogenetic activation were studied. The experiments included: 1) effects of different temperatures (22, 30, 37, 38.5and 40℃) of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and developmental potential; 2) effects of periods of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and development in vitro; 3) effects of different ages of donors on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and developmental potential. The results of the experiment showed:1) There were no statistical differences (p>0.05) of the parthenogenetic cleavage rate (79.64% vs 76.18%) and blastocyst rate (18.11% vs 33.82%) between oocytes from ovaries preserved at 38.5℃ and those preserved at 37℃. When the preserving temperature was increased to 40℃, the cleavage rate (21.68%) and the blastocyst rate (0) were great significantly lower than those at 37℃(p<0.01). The cleavage rate (80.79% vs 76.18%) and blastocyst rate (29.61% vs 33.82%) were not different between 30 and 37℃(p> 0.05). When the preserving temperature was decreased to 22℃, the rate of cleavage was not different,but the rate of blastocyst was significantly lower, compared with that at 37℃; 2) The cleavage and blastocyst rates of the porcine oocytes collected after slaughter 2 or 6h were not different (p>0.05); 3) The cleavage rate of oocytes from gilts and sows after maturation was not different, but the blastocyst rate of the sow group was significantly higher than that of gilt group (p< 0.05). The blastocyst cell number of sows and gilt showed no difference (p>0.05).

  3. Probability in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidman, Lev

    It is argued that, although in the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics there is no "probability" for an outcome of a quantum experiment in the usual sense, we can understand why we have an illusion of probability. The explanation involves: (a) A "sleeping pill" gedanken experiment which makes correspondence between an illegitimate question: "What is the probability of an outcome of a quantum measurement?" with a legitimate question: "What is the probability that `I' am in the world corresponding to that outcome?"; (b) A gedanken experiment which splits the world into several worlds which are identical according to some symmetry condition; and (c) Relativistic causality, which together with (b) explain the Born rule of standard quantum mechanics. The Quantum Sleeping Beauty controversy and "caring measure" replacing probability measure are discussed.

  4. Collision probability at low altitudes resulting from elliptical orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Donald J.

    1990-01-01

    The probability of collision between a spacecraft and another object is calculated for various altitude and orbit conditions, and factors affecting the probability are discussed. It is shown that a collision can only occur when the spacecraft is located at an altitude which is between the perigee and apogee altitudes of the object and that the probability per unit time is largest when the orbit of the object is nearly circular. However, at low altitudes, the atmospheric drag causes changes with time of the perigee and the apogee, such that circular orbits have a much shorter lifetime than many of the elliptical orbits. Thus, when the collision probability is integrated over the lifetime of the orbiting object, some elliptical orbits are found to have much higher total collision probability than circular orbits. Rocket bodies used to boost payloads from low earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit are an example of objects in these elliptical orbits.

  5. Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J. Russell

    2004-01-01

    The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

  6. Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J. Russell

    2004-01-01

    The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

  7. The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrado Gini

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.

  8. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  9. Associativity and normative credal probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, P

    2002-01-01

    Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959. PMID:18238098

  10. Transition probabilities for argon I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Transition probabilities for ArI lines have been calculated on the basis of the (j,k)-coupling scheme for more than 16000 spectral lines belonging to the transition arrays 4s-np (n=4 to n=9), 5s-np (n=5 to n=9), 6s-np (n=6 to n=9), 7s-np (n=8 to n=9), 4p-ns (n=5 to n=10), 5p-ns (n=6 to n=9), 6p-ns (n=7 to n=8), 4p-nd (n=3 to n=9), 5p-nd (n=4 to n=9), 3d-np (n=5 to n=9), 4d-np (n=6 to n=9), 5d-np (n=7 to n=9), 3d-nf (n=4 to n=9), 4d-nf (n=4 to n=9), 5d-nf (n=5 to n=9), 4f-nd (n=5 to n=9) 5f-nd (n=6 to n=9), 4f-ng (n=5 to n=9), 5f-ng (n=6 to n=9). Inso far as values by other authors exist, comparison is made with these values. It turns out that the results obtained in (j,k)-coupling are close to those obtained in intermediate coupling except for intercombination lines. For high principal and/or orbital quantum numbers the transition probabilities for a multiplet approach those of the corresponding transitions in atomic hydrogen. The calculated values are applied to construct a simplified argon-atom model, which reflects the real transition properties and which allows simplified but realistic non-equilibrium calculations for argon plasmas which deviate from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE)

  11. Quantum mechanics and the concept of joint probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The concepts of joint probability as implied by the Copenhagen and realist interpretations of quantum mechanics are examined in relation to (a) the rules for manipulation of probabilistic quantities, and (b) the role of the Bell inequalities in assessing the completeness of standard quantum theory. Proponents of completeness of the Copenhagen interpretation are required to accept a modification of the classical laws of probability to provide a mechanism for complementarity. A new formulation of the locality postulate is given, not involving factorizability or conditional probabilities, which clarifies the role of locality in the derivation of the Bell inequalities

  12. A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widhe, Torulf L. [Department of Orthopaedics, Huddinge University Hospital (Sweden)

    2002-06-01

    A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease in two sisters and one female cousin is described. In infancy, the radiological findings were osteopenia, coxa vara, periosteal cloaking, bowing of the long bones, and flaring of the metaphyses. During growth, spinal pathology developed with compression of the vertebral bodies and scoliosis in one girl and kyphosis in another. All three children had genu valgum and two developed severe S-shaped bowing of the tibiae. Growth was stunted. Inheritance of this disorder is probably recessive. Type I and III collagen biosynthesis was normal. This condition is probably a hitherto undescribed form of osteogenesis imperfecta type III or a new bone disease. (orig.)

  13. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  14. Cosmological dynamics in tomographic probability representation

    OpenAIRE

    Man'ko, V. I.; G. Marmo(Università di Napoli and INFN, Napoli, Italy); Stornaiolo, C.

    2004-01-01

    The probability representation for quantum states of the universe in which the states are described by a fair probability distribution instead of wave function (or density matrix) is developed to consider cosmological dynamics. The evolution of the universe state is described by standard positive transition probability (tomographic transition probability) instead of the complex transition probability amplitude (Feynman path integral) of the standard approach. The latter one is expressed in te...

  15. Gender and chronological age affect erythrocyte membrane oxidative indices in citrate phosphate dextrose adenine-formula 1 (CPDA-1) blood bank storage condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erman, Hayriye; Aksu, Uğur; Belce, Ahmet; Atukeren, Pınar; Uzun, Duygu; Cebe, Tamer; Kansu, Ahmet D; Gelişgen, Remisa; Uslu, Ezel; Aydın, Seval; Çakatay, Ufuk

    2016-07-01

    It is well known that in vitro storage lesions lead to membrane dysfunction and decreased number of functional erythrocytes. As erythrocytes get older, in storage media as well as in peripheral circulation, they undergo a variety of biochemical changes. In our study, the erythrocytes with different age groups in citrate phosphate dextrose adenine-formula 1 (CPDA-1) storage solution were used in order to investigate the possible effect of gender factor on oxidative damage. Oxidative damage biomarkers in erythrocyte membranes such as ferric reducing antioxidant power, pro-oxidant-antioxidant balance, protein-bound advance glycation end products, and sialic acid were analyzed. Current study reveals that change in membrane redox status during blood-bank storage condition also depends on both gender depended homeostatic factors and the presence of CPDA-1. During the storage period in CPDA-1, erythrocytes from the male donors are mostly affected by free radical-mediated oxidative stress but erythrocytes obtained from females are severely affected by glyoxidative stress.

  16. Appealing Features of Vocational Support Services for Hispanic and non-Hispanic Transition Age Youth and Young Adults with Serious Mental Health Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Rosalie A Torres; Delman, Jonathan; McKay, Colleen E; Smith, Lisa M

    2015-10-01

    Transition age youth and young adults (TAYYAs) diagnosed with serious mental health conditions (SMHCs) are at greater risk of being unemployed compared to their peers without SMHCs. Job counseling and job placement services are the greatest predictor of competitive employment, yet we have limited knowledge about what TAYYAs believe they need to obtain gainful employment. In person, qualitative interviews were conducted with 57 non-Hispanic and Hispanic TAYYAs with SMHCs enrolled in three vocational support programs in MA (Vocational Rehabilitation, Individual Placement and Support; the Clubhouse Model as described by the International Center for Clubhouse Development). Six themes emerged from the data: three themes were identified as social capital (supportive relationships, readily available workplace supports, and vocational preparation), two themes related to human capital (effective educational supports and work experience), and one theme related to cultural capital (social skills training). Unique features (Spanish-speaking staff and/or familiar in Latino culture, familial-like staff support) were frequently noted by Hispanic TAYYAs. PMID:24647622

  17. Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Biagini, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

  18. Fusion probability in heavy nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu

    2015-03-01

    Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, PCN> , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. PCN> for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: PCN> has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine PCN> . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where PCN> starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of PCN> from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross sections

  19. Avoiding Negative Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Nyambuya, Golden Gadzirayi

    2013-01-01

    As currently understood since its discovery, the bare Klein-Gordon theory consists of negative quantum probabilities which are considered to be physically meaningless if not outright obsolete. Despite this annoying setback, these negative probabilities are what led the great Paul Dirac in 1928 to the esoteric discovery of the Dirac Equation. The Dirac Equation led to one of the greatest advances in our understanding of the physical world. In this reading, we ask the seemingly senseless question, "Do negative probabilities exist in quantum mechanics?" In an effort to answer this question, we arrive at the conclusion that depending on the choice one makes of the quantum probability current, one will obtain negative probabilities. We thus propose a new quantum probability current of the Klein-Gordon theory. This quantum probability current leads directly to positive definite quantum probabilities. Because these negative probabilities are in the bare Klein-Gordon theory, intrinsically a result of negative energie...

  20. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  1. Probable Linezolid-Induced Pancytopenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nita Lakhani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A 75-year-old male outpatient with cardiac disease, diabetes, chronic renal insufficiency and iron deficiency anemia was prescribed linezolid 600 mg twice daily for a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus diabetic foot osteomyelitis. After one week, his blood counts were consistent with baseline values. The patient failed to return for subsequent blood work. On day 26, he was admitted to hospital with acute renal failure secondary to dehydration, and was found to be pancytopenic (erythrocytes 2.5x1012/L, leukocytes 2.9x109/L, platelets 59x109/L, hemoglobin 71 g/L. The patient was transfused, and linezolid was discontinued. His blood counts improved over the week and remained at baseline two months later. The patient's decline in blood counts from baseline levels met previously established criteria for clinical significance. Application of the Naranjo scale indicated a probable relationship between pancytopenia and linezolid. Clinicians should be aware of this rare effect with linezolid, and prospectively identify patients at risk and emphasize weekly hematological monitoring.

  2. Trajectory versus probability density entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bologna, Mauro; Grigolini, Paolo; Karagiorgis, Markos; Rosa, Angelo

    2001-07-01

    We show that the widely accepted conviction that a connection can be established between the probability density entropy and the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy is questionable. We adopt the definition of density entropy as a functional of a distribution density whose time evolution is determined by a transport equation, conceived as the only prescription to use for the calculation. Although the transport equation is built up for the purpose of affording a picture equivalent to that stemming from trajectory dynamics, no direct use of trajectory time evolution is allowed, once the transport equation is defined. With this definition in mind we prove that the detection of a time regime of increase of the density entropy with a rate identical to the KS entropy is possible only in a limited number of cases. The proposals made by some authors to establish a connection between the two entropies in general, violate our definition of density entropy and imply the concept of trajectory, which is foreign to that of density entropy.

  3. Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2015-08-01

    We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning.

  4. The probability of genetic parallelism and convergence in natural populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conte, Gina L; Arnegard, Matthew E; Peichel, Catherine L; Schluter, Dolph

    2012-12-22

    Genomic and genetic methods allow investigation of how frequently the same genes are used by different populations during adaptive evolution, yielding insights into the predictability of evolution at the genetic level. We estimated the probability of gene reuse in parallel and convergent phenotypic evolution in nature using data from published studies. The estimates are surprisingly high, with mean probabilities of 0.32 for genetic mapping studies and 0.55 for candidate gene studies. The probability declines with increasing age of the common ancestor of compared taxa, from about 0.8 for young nodes to 0.1-0.4 for the oldest nodes in our study. Probability of gene reuse is higher when populations begin from the same ancestor (genetic parallelism) than when they begin from divergent ancestors (genetic convergence). Our estimates are broadly consistent with genomic estimates of gene reuse during repeated adaptation to similar environments, but most genomic studies lack data on phenotypic traits affected. Frequent reuse of the same genes during repeated phenotypic evolution suggests that strong biases and constraints affect adaptive evolution, resulting in changes at a relatively small subset of available genes. Declines in the probability of gene reuse with increasing age suggest that these biases diverge with time.

  5. Fasting: Benefits and probable health harmfulness from the Islamic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Ebrahimi

    2015-06-01

    Medical science can determine the effects and consequences of thirst and hunger during the month of Ramadan. In the religious perspective, it has been emphasized that fasting is for achieving the divine virtue, and this shouldn’t be in conflict with maintaining man’s health. Therefore, the conditions in which there is the probability of harmfulness to man’s health due to fasting, man shouldn’t fast. As a result, medical science could recognize the conditions in which there is probable harmfulness to man’s health.

  6. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  7. Estimating Small Probabilities for Langevin Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Aristoff, David

    2012-01-01

    The problem of estimating small transition probabilities for overdamped Langevin dynamics is considered. A simplification of Girsanov's formula is obtained in which the relationship between the infinitesimal generator of the underlying diffusion and the change of probability measure corresponding to a change in the potential energy is made explicit. From this formula an asymptotic expression for transition probability densities is derived. Separately the problem of estimating the probability ...

  8. Applications of the Dirichlet distribution to forensic match probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, K

    1995-01-01

    The Dirichlet distribution provides a convenient conjugate prior for Bayesian analyses involving multinomial proportions. In particular, allele frequency estimation can be carried out with a Dirichlet prior. If data from several distinct populations are available, then the parameters characterizing the Dirichlet prior can be estimated by maximum likelihood and then used for allele frequency estimation in each of the separate populations. This empirical Bayes procedure tends to moderate extreme multinomial estimates based on sample proportions. The Dirichlet distribution can also be employed to model the contributions from different ancestral populations in computing forensic match probabilities. If the ancestral populations are in genetic equilibrium, then the product rule for computing match probabilities is valid conditional on the ancestral contributions to a typical person of the reference population. This fact facilitates computation of match probabilities and tight upper bounds to match probabilities.

  9. Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Stapleton, James H

    2007-01-01

    This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

  10. The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Hakan; Olsson, Henrik; Juslin, Peter

    2005-01-01

    The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as…

  11. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  12. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd;

    report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...

  13. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623... Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be computed to no less than three significant digits. Probabilities will be truncated to the number...

  14. On the measurement probability of quantum phases

    OpenAIRE

    Schürmann, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    We consider the probability by which quantum phase measurements of a given precision can be done successfully. The least upper bound of this probability is derived and the associated optimal state vectors are determined. The probability bound represents an unique and continuous transition between macroscopic and microscopic measurement precisions.

  15. Uniqueness in ergodic decomposition of invariant probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Zimmermann, Dieter

    1992-01-01

    We show that for any set of transition probabilities on a common measurable space and any invariant probability, there is at most one representing measure on the set of extremal, invariant probabilities with the $\\sigma$-algebra generated by the evaluations. The proof uses nonstandard analysis.

  16. Predictors of Age of Diagnosis for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Role of a Consistent Source of Medical Care, Race, and Condition Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Natacha D.; Morrell, Holly E. R.; Neece, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Having a consistent source of medical care may facilitate diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This study examined predictors of age of ASD diagnosis using data from the 2011-2012 National Survey of Children's Health. Using multiple linear regression analysis, age of diagnosis was predicted by race, ASD severity, having a consistent…

  17. A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    probabilities are the probability of observing (any given) evidence against individual i given that individual j committed the crime (for any j including j equal to i). The variables are derived from the conditional probabilities as a function of the standard of the proof using simple Bayesian updating....

  18. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  19. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  20. Integrated statistical modelling of spatial landslide probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, M.; Chu, H.-J.

    2015-09-01

    Statistical methods are commonly employed to estimate spatial probabilities of landslide release at the catchment or regional scale. Travel distances and impact areas are often computed by means of conceptual mass point models. The present work introduces a fully automated procedure extending and combining both concepts to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability: (i) the landslide inventory is subset into release and deposition zones. (ii) We employ a simple statistical approach to estimate the pixel-based landslide release probability. (iii) We use the cumulative probability density function of the angle of reach of the observed landslide pixels to assign an impact probability to each pixel. (iv) We introduce the zonal probability i.e. the spatial probability that at least one landslide pixel occurs within a zone of defined size. We quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (v) The integrated spatial landslide probability is defined as the maximum of the release probability and the product of the impact probability and the zonal release probability relevant for each pixel. We demonstrate the approach with a 637 km2 study area in southern Taiwan, using an inventory of 1399 landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot in 2009. We observe that (i) the average integrated spatial landslide probability over the entire study area corresponds reasonably well to the fraction of the observed landside area; (ii) the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed spatial landslide distribution; (iii) the size of the release zone (or any other zone of spatial aggregation) influences the integrated spatial landslide probability to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability; (iv) removing the largest landslides from the analysis leads to an enhanced model performance.