Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data
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Fay Michael P
2004-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Fay, Pfeiffer, Cronin, Le, and Feuer (Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837–1848 developed a formula to calculate the age-conditional probability of developing a disease for the first time (ACPDvD for a hypothetical cohort. The novelty of the formula of Fay et al (2003 is that one need not know the rates of first incidence of disease per person-years alive and disease-free, but may input the rates of first incidence per person-years alive only. Similarly the formula uses rates of death from disease and death from other causes per person-years alive. The rates per person-years alive are much easier to estimate than per person-years alive and disease-free. Fay et al (2003 used simple piecewise constant models for all three rate functions which have constant rates within each age group. In this paper, we detail a method for estimating rate functions which does not have jumps at the beginning of age groupings, and need not be constant within age groupings. We call this method the mid-age group joinpoint (MAJ model for the rates. The drawback of the MAJ model is that numerical integration must be used to estimate the resulting ACPDvD. To increase computational speed, we offer a piecewise approximation to the MAJ model, which we call the piecewise mid-age group joinpoint (PMAJ model. The PMAJ model for the rates input into the formula for ACPDvD described in Fay et al (2003 is the current method used in the freely available DevCan software made available by the National Cancer Institute.
Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability
2009-11-11
the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U
On Quantum Conditional Probability
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Isabel Guerra Bobo
2013-02-01
Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.
Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin
2015-10-01
This study estimated the associations between community-level socioeconomic conditions and survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea to determine the social structural influences on healthy aging. The indicators of socioeconomic and data of centenarians were obtained from Statistics Korea database 2014: population census and social survey. Significant positive correlations were found between SPBC and community-level socioeconomic conditions (minimum cost of living and economically active population, water supply and sewerage, pave a road with asphalt, and urbanization). SPBC male and female predictors had higher economic level and base facilities (R2)=0.578, paged 65 to 69 in South Korea. These strategies should include social structural influences on successful aging in the overall socioeconomic conditions.
People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).
Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul
2016-09-01
A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.
Pfeiffer, Paul E.
This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…
On the computability of conditional probability
Ackerman, Nathanael L; Roy, Daniel M
2010-01-01
We study the problem of computing conditional probabilities, a fundamental operation in statistics and machine learning. In the elementary discrete setting, a ratio of probabilities defines conditional probability. In the abstract setting, conditional probability is defined axiomatically and the search for more constructive definitions is the subject of a rich literature in probability theory and statistics. In the discrete or dominated setting, under suitable computability hypotheses, conditional probabilities are computable. However, we show that in general one cannot compute conditional probabilities. We do this by constructing a pair of computable random variables in the unit interval whose conditional distribution encodes the halting problem at almost every point. We show that this result is tight, in the sense that given an oracle for the halting problem, one can compute this conditional distribution. On the other hand, we show that conditioning in abstract settings is computable in the presence of cert...
Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability
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Robert Furber
2015-11-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.
Conditional probability modulates visual search efficiency.
Cort, Bryan; Anderson, Britt
2013-01-01
We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability-the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues-varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency
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Bryan eCort
2013-10-01
Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Probability of boundary conditions in quantum cosmology
Suenobu, Hiroshi; Nambu, Yasusada
2017-02-01
One of the main interest in quantum cosmology is to determine boundary conditions for the wave function of the universe which can predict observational data of our universe. For this purpose, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation for a closed universe with a scalar field numerically and evaluate probabilities for boundary conditions of the wave function of the universe. To impose boundary conditions of the wave function, we use exact solutions of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation with a constant scalar field potential. These exact solutions include wave functions with well known boundary condition proposals, the no-boundary proposal and the tunneling proposal. We specify the exact solutions by introducing two real parameters to discriminate boundary conditions, and obtain the probability for these parameters under the requirement of sufficient e-foldings of the inflation. The probability distribution of boundary conditions prefers the tunneling boundary condition to the no-boundary boundary condition. Furthermore, for large values of a model parameter related to the inflaton mass and the cosmological constant, the probability of boundary conditions selects an unique boundary condition different from the tunneling type.
Probability of Boundary Conditions in Quantum Cosmology
Suenobu, Hiroshi
2016-01-01
One of the main interest in quantum cosmology is to determine which type of boundary conditions for the wave function of the universe can predict observational data of our universe. For this purpose, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation numerically and evaluate probabilities for an observable representing evolution of the classical universe, especially, the number of e-foldings of the inflation. To express boundary conditions of the wave function, we use exact solutions of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation with constant scalar field potential. These exact solutions include wave functions with well known boundary condition proposals, the no-boundary proposal and the tunneling proposal. We specify them introducing two real parameters which discriminate boundary conditions and estimate values of these parameters resulting in observationally preferable predictions. We obtain the probability for these parameters under the requirement of the sufficient e-foldings of the inflation.
Entanglement Mapping VS. Quantum Conditional Probability Operator
Chruściński, Dariusz; Kossakowski, Andrzej; Matsuoka, Takashi; Ohya, Masanori
2011-01-01
The relation between two methods which construct the density operator on composite system is shown. One of them is called an entanglement mapping and another one is called a quantum conditional probability operator. On the base of this relation we discuss the quantum correlation by means of some types of quantum entropy.
Conditional Probabilities and Collapse in Quantum Measurements
Laura, Roberto; Vanni, Leonardo
2008-09-01
We show that including both the system and the apparatus in the quantum description of the measurement process, and using the concept of conditional probabilities, it is possible to deduce the statistical operator of the system after a measurement with a given result, which gives the probability distribution for all possible consecutive measurements on the system. This statistical operator, representing the state of the system after the first measurement, is in general not the same that would be obtained using the postulate of collapse.
Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling
Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.
2008-01-01
In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.
Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.
Barrouillet, Pierre; Gauffroy, Caroline
2015-04-01
Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation, the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P(if p then q)=P(q|p). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories.
The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences
Wu, Mei
2012-01-01
Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…
The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.
Larget, Bret
2013-07-01
In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.
Maximum Entropy and Probability Kinematics Constrained by Conditionals
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Stefan Lukits
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Two open questions of inductive reasoning are solved: (1 does the principle of maximum entropy (PME give a solution to the obverse Majerník problem; and (2 isWagner correct when he claims that Jeffrey’s updating principle (JUP contradicts PME? Majerník shows that PME provides unique and plausible marginal probabilities, given conditional probabilities. The obverse problem posed here is whether PME also provides such conditional probabilities, given certain marginal probabilities. The theorem developed to solve the obverse Majerník problem demonstrates that in the special case introduced by Wagner PME does not contradict JUP, but elegantly generalizes it and offers a more integrated approach to probability updating.
Conditional Probability Analyses of the Spike Activity of Single Neurons
Gray, Peter R.
1967-01-01
With the objective of separating stimulus-related effects from refractory effects in neuronal spike data, various conditional probability analyses have been developed. These analyses are introduced and illustrated with examples based on electrophysiological data from auditory nerve fibers. The conditional probability analyses considered here involve the estimation of the conditional probability of a firing in a specified time interval (defined relative to the time of the stimulus presentation), given that the last firing occurred during an earlier specified time interval. This calculation enables study of the stimulus-related effects in the spike data with the time-since-the-last-firing as a controlled variable. These calculations indicate that auditory nerve fibers “recover” from the refractory effects that follow a firing in the following sense: after a “recovery time” of approximately 20 msec, the firing probabilities no longer depend on the time-since-the-last-firing. Probabilities conditional on this minimum time since the last firing are called “recovered probabilities.” The recovered probabilities presented in this paper are contrasted with the corresponding poststimulus time histograms, and the differences are related to the refractory properties of the nerve fibers. Imagesp[762]-a PMID:19210997
A robust conditional approximation of marginal tail probabilities.
Brazzale, A. R.; Ventura, L.
2001-01-01
The aim of this contribution is to derive a robust approximate conditional procedure used to eliminate nuisance parameters in regression and scale models. Unlike the approximations to exact conditional solutions based on the likelihood function and on the maximum likelihood estimator, the robust conditional approximation of marginal tail probabilities does not suffer from lack of robustness to model misspecification. To assess the performance of the proposed robust conditional procedure the r...
Pedigrees, Prizes, and Prisoners: The Misuse of Conditional Probability
Carlton, Matthew A.
2005-01-01
We present and discuss three examples of misapplication of the notion of conditional probability. In each example, we present the problem along with a published and/or well-known incorrect--but seemingly plausible--solution. We then give a careful treatment of the correct solution, in large part to show how careful application of basic probability…
Statistical learning of action: the role of conditional probability.
Meyer, Meredith; Baldwin, Dare
2011-12-01
Identification of distinct units within a continuous flow of human action is fundamental to action processing. Such segmentation may rest in part on statistical learning. In a series of four experiments, we examined what types of statistics people can use to segment a continuous stream involving many brief, goal-directed action elements. The results of Experiment 1 showed no evidence for sensitivity to conditional probability, whereas Experiment 2 displayed learning based on joint probability. In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that additional exposure to the input failed to engender sensitivity to conditional probability. However, the results of Experiment 4 showed that a subset of adults-namely, those more successful at identifying actions that had been seen more frequently than comparison sequences-were also successful at learning conditional-probability statistics. These experiments help to clarify the mechanisms subserving processing of intentional action, and they highlight important differences from, as well as similarities to, prior studies of statistical learning in other domains, including language.
Multivariate saddlepoint approximations in tail probability and conditional inference
Kolassa, John; 10.3150/09-BEJ237
2010-01-01
We extend known saddlepoint tail probability approximations to multivariate cases, including multivariate conditional cases. Our approximation applies to both continuous and lattice variables, and requires the existence of a cumulant generating function. The method is applied to some examples, including a real data set from a case-control study of endometrial cancer. The method contains less terms and is easier to implement than existing methods, while showing an accuracy comparable to those methods.
Conditional Expectation Depending on a Parameter And Strong Holomorphic Conditional Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘蓉滨; 李西和
1993-01-01
In this paper,we have given the existence theorem of the conditional expectation depending pa-rameter and the existence theorem of the strong holomorphic conditional probability,and another a few ralated theorems.These results are to approach one of addition for correlated components in the probabil-ity theory and the measure theory.
Probability distributions of continuous measurement results for conditioned quantum evolution
Franquet, A.; Nazarov, Yuli V.
2017-02-01
We address the statistics of continuous weak linear measurement on a few-state quantum system that is subject to a conditioned quantum evolution. For a conditioned evolution, both the initial and final states of the system are fixed: the latter is achieved by the postselection in the end of the evolution. The statistics may drastically differ from the nonconditioned case, and the interference between initial and final states can be observed in the probability distributions of measurement outcomes as well as in the average values exceeding the conventional range of nonconditioned averages. We develop a proper formalism to compute the distributions of measurement outcomes, and evaluate and discuss the distributions in experimentally relevant setups. We demonstrate the manifestations of the interference between initial and final states in various regimes. We consider analytically simple examples of nontrivial probability distributions. We reveal peaks (or dips) at half-quantized values of the measurement outputs. We discuss in detail the case of zero overlap between initial and final states demonstrating anomalously big average outputs and sudden jump in time-integrated output. We present and discuss the numerical evaluation of the probability distribution aiming at extending the analytical results and describing a realistic experimental situation of a qubit in the regime of resonant fluorescence.
Reasoning as we read: establishing the probability of causal conditionals.
Haigh, Matthew; Stewart, Andrew J; Connell, Louise
2013-01-01
Indicative conditionals of the form if p then q (e.g., if student tuition fees rise, then applications for university places will fall) invite consideration of a hypothetical event (e.g., tuition fees rising) and of one of its possible consequences (e.g., applications falling). Since a rise in tuition fees is an uncertain event with equally uncertain consequences, a reader may believe the statement to a greater or lesser extent. As a conditional is read, the earliest point at which this probabilistic evaluation can take place is as the consequent clause is wrapped up (e.g., as the critical word fall is read in the example above). Wrap-up processing occurs at the end of the clause, as it is evaluated and integrated into the evolving discourse representation. Five sources of probability may plausibly influence the evaluation of a conditional as it is wrapped up; these are P(p), P(q), P(pq), P(q|p), and P(not-p or q). A total of 128 conditionals were constructed, with these probabilities calculated for each item in a pretest. The conditionals were then embedded in vignettes and read by 36 participants on a word-by-word basis. Using linear mixed-effects modeling, we found that wrap-up reading times were predicted by pretest ratings of P(p) and P(q|p). There was no influence of P(q), P(pq), or P(not-p or q) on wrap-up reading times. Our findings are consistent with the suppositional theory of conditionals proposed by Evans and Over (2004) but do not support the mental-models theory advanced by Johnson-Laird and Byrne (2002).
Role of conditional probability in multiscale stationary markovian processes.
Miccichè, Salvatore
2010-07-01
The aim of the paper is to understand how the inclusion of more and more time scales into a stochastic stationary markovian process affects its conditional probability. To this end, we consider two gaussian processes: (i) a short-range correlated process with an infinite set of time scales bounded from above and (ii) a power-law correlated process with an infinite and unbounded set of time scales. For these processes we investigate the equal position conditional probability P(x,t∣x,0) and the mean first passage time Tx(Λ). The function P(x,t∣x,0) can be considered as a proxy of the persistence, i.e., the fact that when a process reaches a position x then it spends some time around that position value. The mean first passage time can be considered as a proxy of how fast is the process in reaching a position at distance Λ starting from position x . In the first investigation we show that the more time scales the process includes, the larger is the persistence. Specifically, we show that the power-law correlated process shows a slow power-law decay of P(x,t∣x,0) to the stationary probability density function. By contrast, the short-range correlated process shows a decay dominated by an exponential cutoff. Moreover, we also show that the existence of an infinite and unbounded set of time scales is a necessary but not sufficient condition for observing a slow power-law decay of P(x,t∣x,0). In fact, in the context of stationary markovian processes such a form of persistence seems to be associated with the existence of an algebraic decay of the autocorrelation function. In the second investigation, we show that for large values of Λ the more time scales the process includes, the larger is the mean first passage time, i.e., the slower is the process. On the other hand, for small values of Λ, the more time scales the process includes, the smaller is the mean first passage time, i.e., when a process statistically spends more time in a given position the
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2009-01-01
【说词】1. He can probably tell us the truth.2. Will it rain this afternoong ？ Probably【解语】作副词，意为“大概、或许”，表示可能性很大，通常指根据目前情况作出积极推测或判断；
The feature on the posterior conditional probability of finite state Markov channel
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
MU Li-hua; SHEN Ji-hong; YUAN Yan-hua
2005-01-01
The feature of finite state Markov channel probability distribution is discussed on condition that original I/O are known. The probability is called posterior condition probability. It is also proved by Bayes formula that posterior condition probability forms stationary Markov sequence if channel input is independently and identically distributed. On the contrary, Markov property of posterior condition probability isn' t kept if the input isn't independently and identically distributed and a numerical example is utilized to explain this case. The properties of posterior condition probability will aid the study of the numerical calculated recurrence formula of finite state Markov channel capacity.
De Simone, Andrea; Riotto, Antonio
2011-01-01
The excursion set theory, where density perturbations evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale, provides a method for computing the dark matter halo mass function. The computation of the mass function is mapped into the so-called first-passage time problem in the presence of a moving barrier. The excursion set theory is also a powerful formalism to study other properties of dark matter halos such as halo bias, accretion rate, formation time, merging rate and the formation history of halos. This is achieved by computing conditional probabilities with non-trivial initial conditions, and the conditional two-barrier first-crossing rate. In this paper we use the recently-developed path integral formulation of the excursion set theory to calculate analytically these conditional probabilities in the presence of a generic moving barrier, including the one describing the ellipsoidal collapse, and for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions. The non-Markovianity of the random walks induced by non-Gaussi...
Intelligence, Belief in the Paranormal, Knowledge of Probability and Aging
Stuart-Hamilton, Ian; Nayak, Laxman; Priest, Lee
2006-01-01
In young adults, preparedness to accept improbable events as planned rather than due to chance is predictive of the level of belief in the paranormal, possibly underpinned by lower intelligence levels (Musch and Ehrenberg, 2002). The present study, using a sample of 73 older participants aged 60-84 years failed to find any relationship between…
Satake, Eiki; Vashlishan Murray, Amy
2015-01-01
This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…
Wu, Dongfeng; Rosner, Gary L; Broemeling, Lyle
2005-12-01
This article extends previous probability models for periodic breast cancer screening examinations. The specific aim is to provide statistical inference for age dependence of sensitivity and the transition probability from the disease free to the preclinical state. The setting is a periodic screening program in which a cohort of initially asymptomatic women undergo a sequence of breast cancer screening exams. We use age as a covariate in the estimation of screening sensitivity and the transition probability simultaneously, both from a frequentist point of view and within a Bayesian framework. We apply our method to the Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York study of female breast cancer and give age-dependent sensitivity and transition probability density estimates. The inferential methodology we develop is also applicable when analyzing studies of modalities for early detection of other types of progressive chronic diseases.
Radakovic, Nenad; McDougall, Douglas
2012-01-01
This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS
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Joop de Beer
2012-10-01
Full Text Available BACKGROUND TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. OBJECTIVE This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other smoothing and projection methods. METHODS TOPALS uses a linear spline to describe the ratios between the age-specific death probabilities of a given country and a standard age schedule. For smoothing purposes I use the average of death probabilities over 15 Western European countries as standard, whereas for projection purposes I use an age schedule of 'best practice' mortality. A partial adjustment model projects how quickly the death probabilities move in the direction of the best-practice level of mortality. RESULTS On average, TOPALS performs better than the Heligman-Pollard model and the Brass relational method in smoothing mortality age schedules. TOPALS can produce projections that are similar to those of the Lee-Carter method, but can easily be used to produce alternative scenarios as well. This article presents three projections of life expectancy at birth for the year 2060 for 26 European countries. The Baseline scenario assumes a continuation of the past trend in each country, the Convergence scenario assumes that there is a common trend across European countries, and the Acceleration scenario assumes that the future decline of death probabilities will exceed that in the past. The Baseline scenario projects that average European life expectancy at birth will increase to 80 years for men and 87 years for women in 2060, whereas the Acceleration scenario projects an increase to 90 and 93 years respectively. CONCLUSIONS TOPALS is a useful new tool for demographers for both smoothing age schedules and making scenarios.
Conditional, Time-Dependent Probabilities for Segmented Type-A Faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2
Field, Edward H.; Gupta, Vipin
2008-01-01
This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the
Random forest models for the probable biological condition of streams and rivers in the USA
The National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) is a probability based survey conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency and its state and tribal partners. It provides information on the ecological condition of the rivers and streams in the conterminous USA, and the ex...
How to Confuse with Statistics or: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Probabilities
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Krämer, Walter
2004-01-01
The article shows by various examples how consumers of statistical information may be confused when this information is presented in terms of conditional probabilities. It also shows how this confusion helps others to lie with statistics, and it suggests how either confusion or lies can be avoided by using alternative modes of conveying statistical information.
Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.
Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra
2015-02-10
Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data.
The effect of conditional probability of chord progression on brain response: an MEG study.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seung-Goo Kim
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent electrophysiological and neuroimaging studies have explored how and where musical syntax in Western music is processed in the human brain. An inappropriate chord progression elicits an event-related potential (ERP component called an early right anterior negativity (ERAN or simply an early anterior negativity (EAN in an early stage of processing the musical syntax. Though the possible underlying mechanism of the EAN is assumed to be probabilistic learning, the effect of the probability of chord progressions on the EAN response has not been previously explored explicitly. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present study, the empirical conditional probabilities in a Western music corpus were employed as an approximation of the frequencies in previous exposure of participants. Three types of chord progression were presented to musicians and non-musicians in order to examine the correlation between the probability of chord progression and the neuromagnetic response using magnetoencephalography (MEG. Chord progressions were found to elicit early responses in a negatively correlating fashion with the conditional probability. Observed EANm (as a magnetic counterpart of the EAN component responses were consistent with the previously reported EAN responses in terms of latency and location. The effect of conditional probability interacted with the effect of musical training. In addition, the neural response also correlated with the behavioral measures in the non-musicians. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study is the first to reveal the correlation between the probability of chord progression and the corresponding neuromagnetic response. The current results suggest that the physiological response is a reflection of the probabilistic representations of the musical syntax. Moreover, the results indicate that the probabilistic representation is related to the musical training as well as the sensitivity of an individual.
Asymptotic forms for hard and soft edge general $\\beta$ conditional gap probabilities
Forrester, Peter J
2011-01-01
An infinite log-gas formalism, due to Dyson, and independently Fogler and Shklovskii, is applied to the computation of conditioned gap probabilities at the hard and soft edges of random matrix $\\beta$-ensembles. The conditioning is that there are $n$ eigenvalues in the gap, with $n \\ll |t|$, $t$ denoting the end point of the gap. It is found that the entropy term in the formalism must be replaced by a term involving the potential drop to obtain results consistent with known asymptotic expansions in the case $n=0$. With this modification made for general $n$, the derived expansions - which are for the logarithm of the gap probabilities - are conjectured to be correct up to and including terms O$(\\log|t|)$. They are shown to satisfy various consistency conditions, including an asymptotic duality formula relating $\\beta$ to $4/\\beta$.
Asymptotic forms for hard and soft edge general {beta} conditional gap probabilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Forrester, Peter J., E-mail: p.forrester@ms.unimelb.edu.au [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Witte, Nicholas S., E-mail: nsw@ms.unimelb.edu.au [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 (Australia)
2012-06-21
An infinite log-gas formalism, due to Dyson, and independently Fogler and Shklovskii, is applied to the computation of conditioned gap probabilities at the hard and soft edges of random matrix {beta}-ensembles. The conditioning is that there are n eigenvalues in the gap, with n Much-Less-Than |t|, t denoting the end point of the gap. It is found that the entropy term in the formalism must be replaced by a term involving the potential drop to obtain results consist with known asymptotic expansions in the case n=0. With this modification made for general n, the derived expansions - which are for the logarithm of the gap probabilities - are conjectured to be correct up to and including terms O(log|t|). They are shown to satisfy various consistency conditions, including an asymptotic duality formula relating {beta} to 4/{beta}.
Asymptotic forms for hard and soft edge general β conditional gap probabilities
Forrester, Peter J.; Witte, Nicholas S.
2012-06-01
An infinite log-gas formalism, due to Dyson, and independently Fogler and Shklovskii, is applied to the computation of conditioned gap probabilities at the hard and soft edges of random matrix β-ensembles. The conditioning is that there are n eigenvalues in the gap, with n≪|t|, t denoting the end point of the gap. It is found that the entropy term in the formalism must be replaced by a term involving the potential drop to obtain results consist with known asymptotic expansions in the case n=0. With this modification made for general n, the derived expansions — which are for the logarithm of the gap probabilities — are conjectured to be correct up to and including terms O(log|t|). They are shown to satisfy various consistency conditions, including an asymptotic duality formula relating β to 4/β.
Hubig, Michael; Muggenthaler, Holger; Mall, Gita
2014-05-01
Bayesian estimation applied to temperature based death time estimation was recently introduced as conditional probability distribution or CPD-method by Biermann and Potente. The CPD-method is useful, if there is external information that sets the boundaries of the true death time interval (victim last seen alive and found dead). CPD allows computation of probabilities for small time intervals of interest (e.g. no-alibi intervals of suspects) within the large true death time interval. In the light of the importance of the CPD for conviction or acquittal of suspects the present study identifies a potential error source. Deviations in death time estimates will cause errors in the CPD-computed probabilities. We derive formulae to quantify the CPD error as a function of input error. Moreover we observed the paradox, that in cases, in which the small no-alibi time interval is located at the boundary of the true death time interval, adjacent to the erroneous death time estimate, CPD-computed probabilities for that small no-alibi interval will increase with increasing input deviation, else the CPD-computed probabilities will decrease. We therefore advise not to use CPD if there is an indication of an error or a contra-empirical deviation in the death time estimates, that is especially, if the death time estimates fall out of the true death time interval, even if the 95%-confidence intervals of the estimate still overlap the true death time interval.
Sastry, P S
2008-01-01
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multi-neuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by an ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns which are frequent in the sense that the count of non-overlapping occurrences of the pattern in the data stream is above a threshold. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of these repeating patterns and to set the thresholds automatically. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that includes not only models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a proba...
Olson, Elizabeth A; Hooper, Catalina J; Collins, Paul; Luciana, Monica
2007-11-01
Healthy adolescents, ages 9-23, completed delay and probability discounting tasks and measures of verbal and nonverbal intelligence, executive functioning, and self-reported internalizing and externalizing behavior. Delay but not probability discounting decreased with age. Delay discounting was also associated with verbal intelligence and Go-NoGo and Iowa Gambling Task performance. Probability discounting was associated only with externalizing behavior. Findings conform to an accumulation of evidence that while delay and probability discounting may have some overlapping components, they also reflect some fundamentally different processes in this age group.
Finite de Finetti theorem for conditional probability distributions describing physical theories
Christandl, Matthias; Toner, Ben
2009-04-01
We work in a general framework where the state of a physical system is defined by its behavior under measurement and the global state is constrained by no-signaling conditions. We show that the marginals of symmetric states in such theories can be approximated by convex combinations of independent and identical conditional probability distributions, generalizing the classical finite de Finetti theorem of Diaconis and Freedman. Our results apply to correlations obtained from quantum states even when there is no bound on the local dimension, so that known quantum de Finetti theorems cannot be used.
Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.
2002-01-01
We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions
Analyzing the relative efficacy of student assessment techniques using Conditional Probability
Mujtaba, Abid H
2016-01-01
Academics often attempt to analyze problems in pedagogy on the basis of anecdotes when they should be using an evidence based, data driven approach. This paper presents a relatively simple technique for analyzing the relative efficacy of different types of questions when it comes to judging the conceptual understanding of students. The technique is illustrated using a case-study in which a carefully constructed multi-part question (with binary, descriptive, and computational parts) was given to a group of students. The responses were graded and assigned a boolean value to denote success or failure. The boolean values were counted to calculate the empirical probability of success in each type of question and correlations between the different types was analyzed by calculating conditional probabilities. The analysis revealed that while success in answering the descriptive question guaranteed success in the other two types the converse was far from true. Binary and computational questions were revealed to be poo...
Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone
Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin
2016-05-01
This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.
Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei
2016-08-23
In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.
Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R
2016-01-01
When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence.
Barua, Bobby; Islam, Md Rezwan
2012-01-01
Free space optics (FSO) is a promising solution for the need to very high data rate point-to point communication. FSO communication technology became popular due to its large bandwidth potential, unlicensed spectrum, excellent security and quick and inexpensive setup. Unfortunately, atmospheric turbulence-induced fading is one of the main impairments affecting FSO communications. To design a high performance communication link for the atmospheric FSO channel, it is of great importance to characterize the channel with proper model. In this paper, the modulation format is Q-ary PPM across lasers, with intensity modulation and ideal photodetectors are assumed to investigate the most efficient PDF models for FSO communication under turbulent condition. The performance results are evaluated in terms of symbol error probability (SEP) for different type of channel model and the simulation results confirm the analytical findings.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2001-01-01
Objective This paper propses a family of summary chi square tests for comparing survival rates at all points of time between two groups. Methods They are respectively derived from the Peto et al. expression for the log rank test, the Mantel-Haenszel expression for the log rank test, and the generalized Wilcoxon test by means of using the homogenetic effective sample size in place of the number at risk and using the corresponding numerator of the conditional probability surviving in place of the death number. Results After such derivations they become clearer in clinical significance, more powerful, and free from the assumption of proportional hazard. Conclusion These tests can be employed in analyzing the clinical data of cancer. A worked example illustrates the methodology.
Genetic evaluation of weaning weight and probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee lambs
The objective of this study was to investigate genetic control of 120-day weaning weight and the probability of lambing at 1 year of age in Targhee ewe lambs. Records of 5,967 ewe lambs born from 1989 to 2012 and first exposed to rams for breeding at approximately 7 months of age were analyzed. Reco...
Specht, Matt W; Nicotra, Cassandra M; Kelly, Laura M; Woods, Douglas W; Ricketts, Emily J; Perry-Parrish, Carisa; Reynolds, Elizabeth; Hankinson, Jessica; Grados, Marco A; Ostrander, Rick S; Walkup, John T
2014-03-01
Tic-suppression-based treatments (TSBTs) represent a safe and effective treatment option for Chronic Tic Disorders (CTDs). Prior research has demonstrated that treatment naive youths with CTDs have the capacity to safely and effectively suppress tics for prolonged periods. It remains unclear how tic suppression is achieved. The current study principally examines how effective suppression is achieved and preliminary correlates of the ability to suppress tics. Twelve youths, ages 10 to 17 years, with moderate-to-marked CTDs participated in an alternating sequence of tic freely and reinforced tic suppression conditions during which urge intensity and tic frequency were frequently assessed. Probability of tics occurring was half as likely following high-intensity urges during tic suppression (31%) in contrast to low-intensity urges during tic freely conditions (60%). Age was not associated with ability to suppress. Intelligence indices were associated with or trended toward greater ability to suppress tics. Attention difficulties were not associated with ability to suppress but were associated with tic severity. In contrast to our "selective suppression" hypothesis, we found participants equally capable of suppressing their tics regardless of urge intensity during reinforced tic suppression. Tic suppression was achieved with an "across-the-board" effort to resist urges. Preliminary data suggest that ability to suppress may be associated with general cognitive variables rather than age, tic severity, urge severity, and attention. Treatment naive youths appear to possess a capacity for robust tic suppression. TSBTs may bolster these capacities and/or enable their broader implementation, resulting in symptom improvement.
Hu, Yaogang; Li, Hui; Liao, Xinglin; Song, Erbing; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Z.
2016-08-01
This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition was presented. Finally, two cases showed the validity of the proposed probability evaluation method in detecting early deterioration condition and in tracking their further deterioration for the critical components.
A Novel Adaptive Conditional Probability-Based Predicting Model for User’s Personality Traits
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mengmeng Wang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available With the pervasive increase in social media use, the explosion of users’ generated data provides a potentially very rich source of information, which plays an important role in helping online researchers understand user’s behaviors deeply. Since user’s personality traits are the driving force of user’s behaviors, hence, in this paper, along with social network features, we first extract linguistic features, emotional statistical features, and topic features from user’s Facebook status updates, followed by quantifying importance of features via Kendall correlation coefficient. And then, on the basis of weighted features and dynamic updated thresholds of personality traits, we deploy a novel adaptive conditional probability-based predicting model which considers prior knowledge of correlations between user’s personality traits to predict user’s Big Five personality traits. In the experimental work, we explore the existence of correlations between user’s personality traits which provides a better theoretical support for our proposed method. Moreover, on the same Facebook dataset, compared to other methods, our method can achieve an F1-measure of 80.6% when taking into account correlations between user’s personality traits, and there is an impressive improvement of 5.8% over other approaches.
Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas
2013-01-01
Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.
Accessing probable thermal histories through dispersed, partially-reset zircon (U-Th)/He ages
Powell, Jeremy; Schneider, David
2016-04-01
exhibited by the datasets. We do not recommend selecting only the youngest dates from samples or averaging (U-Th)/He dates, as these methods do not acknowledge the complexity of the (U-Th)/He system and potentially exclude non-obvious, but equally probable, geologic scenarios. To this extent, using the vertical profile approach to assess exhumation rates from cooling age data may also provide an inaccurate result if the strata have not been buried to sufficient temperatures to completely reset any prior thermal history. As an alternative, we analyzed more grains from individual samples and combine data from similar structural regions to assess regional trends in thermal history. We believe that this approach does an appropriate job of acknowledging the errors and assumptions involved in the technique while providing meaningful information on thermal history of a region. Thermal modeling of the Mackenzie Mountains data reveals that (1) a substantial sedimentary package was deposited following the Devonian and removed during Permo-Triassic cooling, and (2) the Cordilleran deformation front propagated through the study area from the Albian to the Paleocene, with a moderate increase in cooling rates between 75-67 Ma in the southwest, and 60-55 Ma at the deformation front.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2010-01-01
Based on fast Markov chain simulation for generating the samples distributed in failure region and saddlepoint approximation(SA) technique,an efficient reliability analysis method is presented to evaluate the small failure probability of non-linear limit state function(LSF) with non-normal variables.In the presented method,the failure probability of the non-linear LSF is transformed into a product of the failure probability of the introduced linear LSF and a feature ratio factor.The introduced linear LSF which approximately has the same maximum likelihood points as the non-linear LSF is constructed and its failure probability can be calculated by SA technique.The feature ratio factor,which can be evaluated on the basis of multiplicative rule of probability,exhibits the relation between the failure probability of the non-linear LSF and that of the linear LSF,and it can be fast computed by utilizing the Markov chain algorithm to directly simulate the samples distributed in the failure regions of the non-linear LSF and those of the linear LSF.Moreover,the expectation and variance of the failure probability estimate are derived.The results of several examples demonstrate that the presented method has wide applicability,can be easily implemented,and possesses high precision and high efficiency.
Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability.
Dawson, Michael R W; Gupta, Maya
2017-01-01
Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent's environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
张立松; 闫相祯; 杨秀娟; 田中兰; 杨恒林
2014-01-01
The uncertainties of some key influence factors on coal crushing, such as rock strength, pore pressure and magnitude and orientation of three principal stresses, can lead to the uncertainty of coal crushing and make it very difficult to predict coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir. To account for the uncertainty involved in coal crushing, a deterministic prediction model of coal crushing under the condition of in-situ reservoir was established based on Hoek-Brown criterion. Through this model, key influence factors on coal crushing were selected as random variables and the corresponding probability density functions were determined by combining experiment data and Latin Hypercube method. Then, to analyze the uncertainty of coal crushing, the first- order second-moment method and the presented model were combined to address the failure probability involved in coal crushing analysis. Using the presented method, the failure probabilities of coal crushing were analyzed for WS5-5 well in Ningwu basin, China, and the relations between failure probability and the influence factors were furthermore discussed. The results show that the failure probabilities of WS5-5 CBM well vary from 0.6 to 1.0; moreover, for the coal seam section at depth of 784.3-785 m, the failure probabilities are equal to 1, which fit well with experiment results; the failure probability of coal crushing presents nonlinear growth relationships with the increase of principal stress difference and the decrease of uniaxial compressive strength.
A tilting algorithm for the estimation of fractional age survival probabilities.
Barz, Christiane; Müller, Alfred
2012-04-01
Life tables used in life insurance determine the age of death distribution only at integer ages. Therefore, actuaries make fractional age assumptions to interpolate between integer age values when they have to value payments that are not restricted to integer ages. Traditional fractional age assumptions as well as the fractional independence assumption are easy to apply but result in a non-intuitive overall shape of the force of mortality. Other approaches proposed either require expensive optimization procedures or produce many discontinuities. We suggest a new, computationally inexpensive algorithm to select the parameters within the LFM-family introduced by Jones and Mereu (Insur Math Econ 27:261-276, 2000). In contrast to previously suggested methods, our algorithm enforces a monotone force of mortality between integer ages if the mortality rates are monotone and keeps the number of discontinuities small.
Classic conditioning in aged rabbits: delay, trace, and long-delay conditioning.
Solomon, P R; Groccia-Ellison, M E
1996-06-01
Young (0.5 years) and aged (2+, 3+, and 4+ years) rabbits underwent acquisition of the classically conditioned nictitating membrane response in a delay (500-ms conditioned stimulus [CS], 400-ms interstimulus interval [ISI]), long-delay (1,000-ms CS, 900-ms ISI), or trace (500-ms CS, 400-ms stimulus-free period) paradigm. Collapsing across age groups, there is a general tendency for animals to acquire trace conditioning more slowly than delay conditioning. Collapsing across conditioning paradigms, there is a general tendency for aged animals to acquire more slowly than younger animals. Of greater significance, however, are the age differences in the different conditioning paradigms. In the delay and long-delay paradigms, significant conditioning deficits first appeared in the 4(+)-year-old group. In the trace conditioning paradigm, significant conditioning deficits became apparent in the 2(+)-year-old animals.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Veronica Biazzo
2000-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we illustrate an implementation with Maple V of some procedures which allow to exactly propagate precise and imprecise probability assessments. The extension of imprecise assessments is based on a suitable generalization of the concept of coherence of de Finetti. The procedures described are supported by some examples and relevant cases.
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS
de Beer, J.A.A.
2012-01-01
Background: TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. Objective: This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and co
The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities
Meyer, C. D., Jr.
1979-01-01
The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hu, Y.; Li, H.; Liao, X;
2016-01-01
This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration......-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation...... method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method...
Chow, Alan F.; Van Haneghan, James P.
2016-01-01
This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…
Accelerated aging of AP/HTPB propellants and the influence of various environmental aging conditions
Keizers, H.L.J.
1995-01-01
Preliminary resuits on accelerated aging of lab-scale produced AP/HTPB propellant and propellants from dissectioned rocket motors are discussed, including aging logic, storage conditions, test techniques and resuits on mechanical, ballistic and safety testing. The mam aging effect observed was harde
Eyeblink classical conditioning differentiates normal aging from Alzheimer's disease.
Woodruff-Pak, D S
2001-01-01
Eyeblink classical conditioning is a useful paradigm for the study of the neurobiology of learning, memory, and aging, which also has application in the differential diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases expressed in advancing age. Converging evidence from studies of eyeblink conditioning in neurological patients and brain imaging in normal adults document parallels in the neural substrates of this form of associative learning in humans and non-human mammals. Age differences in the short-delay procedure (400 ms CS-US interval) appear in middle age in humans and may be caused at least in part by cerebellar cortical changes such as loss of Purkinje cells. Whereas the hippocampus is not essential for conditioning in the delay procedure, disruption of hippocampal cholinergic neurotransmission impairs acquisition and slows the rate of learning. Alzheimer's disease (AD) profoundly disrupts the hippocampaL cholinergic system, and patients with AD consistently perform poorly in eyeblink conditioning. We hypothesize that disruption of hippocampal cholinergic pathways in AD in addition to age-associated Purkinje cell loss results in severely impaired eyeblink conditioning. The earliest pathology in AD occurs in entorhinal cortical input to hippocampus, and eyeblink conditioning may detect this early disruption before declarative learning and memory circuits become impaired. A case study is presented in which eyeblink conditioning detected impending dementia six years before changes on other screening tests indicated impairment. Because eyeblink conditioning is simple, non-threatening, and non-invasive, it may become a useful addition to test batteries designed to differentiate normal aging from mild cognitive impairment that progresses to AD and AD from other types of dementia.
Physical condition among middle altitude trekkers in an aging society.
Saito, Shigeru; Tobe, Ken; Harada, Naomi; Aso, Chizu; Nishihara, Fumio; Shimada, Hitoshi
2002-07-01
The number of alpine accidents has markedly increased among elderly trekkers in an aging society, Japan. We evaluated the physical condition of 176 trekkers by interview and physical examination on a popular middle altitude mountain. Heart rate, noninvasive blood pressure and arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) were measured using a portable life monitor. It was revealed that more than 70% of the trekkers were over 50. Seventy-five percent of trekkers over 70 had some pre-existing medical problems. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure before the start of trekking, increased with age. However, such age-dependent differences were not apparent at the summit hut. SpO2 values decreased slightly but significantly with age. In conclusion, many elderly people enjoy nonchallenging middle altitude trekking in an aging society. Alpine accidents caused by health problems tend to arise more frequently in this population. Alpine rescue teams should be well-prepared for the alpine accidents of elderly trekkers.
The influence of adverse weather conditions on probability of congestion on dutch motorways
Van Stralen, W.J.H.; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.
2015-01-01
Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the influence o
The influence of adverse weather conditions on the probability of congestion on Dutch motorways
Van Stralen, W.; Calvert, S.C.; Molin, E.J.E.
2014-01-01
Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. However, to the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the inf
Wire system ageing assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fantoni, P.F. (Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) (Norway))
2009-07-15
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report contains the results of experiments performed in collaboration with Tecnatom SA, Spain, to compare several cable condition monitoring techniques including LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis) (au)
Gernez, Pierre; Stramski, Dariusz; Darecki, Miroslaw
2011-07-01
Time series measurements of fluctuations in underwater downward irradiance, Ed, within the green spectral band (532 nm) show that the probability distribution of instantaneous irradiance varies greatly as a function of depth within the near-surface ocean under sunny conditions. Because of intense light flashes caused by surface wave focusing, the near-surface probability distributions are highly skewed to the right and are heavy tailed. The coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis at depths smaller than 1 m can exceed 3 and 20, respectively. We tested several probability models, such as lognormal, Gumbel, Fréchet, log-logistic, and Pareto, which are potentially suited to describe the highly skewed heavy-tailed distributions. We found that the models cannot approximate with consistently good accuracy the high irradiance values within the right tail of the experimental distribution where the probability of these values is less than 10%. This portion of the distribution corresponds approximately to light flashes with Ed > 1.5?, where ? is the time-averaged downward irradiance. However, the remaining part of the probability distribution covering all irradiance values smaller than the 90th percentile can be described with a reasonable accuracy (i.e., within 20%) with a lognormal model for all 86 measurements from the top 10 m of the ocean included in this analysis. As the intensity of irradiance fluctuations decreases with depth, the probability distribution tends toward a function symmetrical around the mean like the normal distribution. For the examined data set, the skewness and excess kurtosis assumed values very close to zero at a depth of about 10 m.
[Anemia in women of reproductive age. The results of a national probability survey].
Martínez, H; González-Cossío, T; Flores, M; Rivera-Dommarco, J; Lezana, M A; Sepúlveda-Amor, J
1995-01-01
Iron deficiency is one of the most prevalent forms of malnutrition which is clinically known as anemia. Functional consequences of anemia include impairment of cardiovascular performance, limitation in productivity, higher incidence of low birth weight and premature delivery, and increased maternal mortality. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of anemia in women of reproductive age in Mexico. Data were collected by the Ministry of Health through a National Nutrition Survey in 1988, which draw a representative sample from four regions: North, Center, South and Federal District. Anemia was more prevalent in pregnant (18.17%) than in non-pregnant women (15.38%). Those women living in predominantly indigenous communities had higher prevalence of anemia (24.02%) than non-indigenous women (14.67%). Anemia was more prevalent in urban areas (15.54%) than in rural (13.56%). Mean +/- standard deviation values for hemoglobin were lower in pregnant women (12.5 +/- 1.6 g/dL) than in non-pregnant ones (13.7 +/- 1.6 g/dL). Consistently, the Northern and Southern regions were worse off than the Center and the Federal District. These data indicate that anemia is a public health problem in Mexico. The functional consequences of this deficiency justify interventions to treat and prevent it.
Performance of bolted closure joint elastomers under cask aging conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Verst, C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Sindelar, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Skidmore, E. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Daugherty, W. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
2015-07-23
The bolted closure joint of a bare spent fuel cask is susceptible to age-related degradation and potential loss of confinement function under long-term storage conditions. Elastomeric seals, a component of the joint typically used to facilitate leak testing of the primary seal that includes the metallic seal and bolting, is susceptible to degradation over time by several mechanisms, principally via thermo-oxidation, stress-relaxation, and radiolytic degradation under time and temperature condition. Irradiation and thermal exposure testing and evaluation of an ethylene-propylene diene monomer (EPDM) elastomeric seal material similar to that used in the CASTOR® V/21 cask for a matrix of temperature and radiation exposure conditions relevant to the cask extended storage conditions, and development of semiempirical predictive models for loss of sealing force is in progress. A special insert was developed to allow Compressive Stress Relaxation (CSR) measurements before and after the irradiation and/or thermal exposure without unloading the elastomer. A condition of the loss of sealing force for the onset of leakage was suggested. The experimentation and modeling being performed could enable acquisition of extensive coupled aging data as well as an estimation of the timeframe when loss of sealing function under aging (temperature/radiation) conditions may occur.
Path dependence of lithium ion cells aging under storage conditions
Su, Laisuo; Zhang, Jianbo; Huang, Jun; Ge, Hao; Li, Zhe; Xie, Fengchao; Liaw, Bor Yann
2016-05-01
This work investigates path dependence of lithium ion cells that are stored under static and non-static conditions. In the static storage tests, the levels of temperature and state of charge (SOC) are kept constant. The results of 12 tests from a combination of three temperatures and four SOCs show that, as expected, the cell ages faster at higher temperature and higher SOC. However, the cell aging mode, while consistent for all the evaluated temperatures, is different at 95% SOC from that at lower SOCs. In the non-static storage tests, the levels of temperature and SOC vary with time during the test process. The effect of the sequence of stress levels on cell aging is studied statistically using the statistical method of analysis of variation (ANOVA). It is found that cell capacity fade is path independent of both SOC and temperature, while cell resistance increase is path dependent on SOC and path independent of temperature. Finally, rate-based empirical aging models are adopted to fit the cell aging in the static storage tests. The aging model for capacity fade is demonstrated to be applicable to the non-static tests with errors between -3% and +3% for all the tested conditions over 180 days.
Pustilnik, Lev
2013-01-01
We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area of specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable m...
Pustil'nik, L.; Yom Din, G.
2013-01-01
We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmed M. Hassan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Problem statement: Acute heat stress at marketing age especially in broiler chickens raised in open houses with reduced means of heat exchange leads to economic losses. The objective of this study was to determine beneficial effects of early age thermal conditioning in reducing adverse effects of acute heat stress and decrease losses. Approach: Ninety one day-old broiler chicks were randomly assigned to one of three treatments (n = 30: (1 control (normally raised, (2 early age thermal conditioning (exposed to temperature of 40±1°C for 24 h at 5th day of age, then raised as control chicks and (3 chronic stress (exposed to 33±2°C from day one till 6 weeks of age. At 42nd day of age, all chicks were subjected to acute heat stress of 39±2°C for 2 h. Blood samples were collected from all groups before and after exposure to acute heat stress. Results: Blood pH increased in both controls and thermally-conditioned chicks after exposure to acute heat stress coinciding with significant decrease in blood carbon dioxide pressure (pCo2 in controls only. Blood potassium level decreased in controls, while in thermally-conditioned or chronically-stressed no significant changes were observed. Blood sodium level showed a trend toward decreased levels in controls while a trend toward increased levels was observed in both thermally-conditioned and chronically-stressed birds. Importantly, significant reductions were observed in total erythrocyte count and hemoglobin level in chronically-stressed birds as compared to other groups before and after acute stress exposure. Hetrophil/lymphocyte ratio increased in both controls and thermally-conditioned chicks after acute heat exposure, but not in chronically-stressed birds. Conclusion: When exposed to acute heat stress at marketing age, chicks subjected to early age thermal conditioning responded very similar to birds adapted to chronic heat stress indicating a protective role of early age thermal conditioning.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crowe, B.M.
1978-02-01
A complex sequence of Oligocene-age volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks form a major volcanic center in the Picacho area of the southeasternmost Chocolate Mountains, Imperial County, California. Basal-volcanic rocks consist of lava flows and flow breccia of trachybasalt, pyroxene rhyodacite, and pyroxene dacite (32 My old). These volcanic rocks locally overlie fanglomerate and rest unconformably on pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. South and southeast of a prominent arcuate fault zone in the central part of the area, the rhyolite ignimbrite (26 My old) forms a major ash-flow sheet. In the southwestern part of the Picacho area the rhyolite ignimbrite interfingers with and is overlain by dacite flows and laharic breccia. The rhyolite ignimbrite and the dacite of Picacho Peak are overlapped by lava flows and breccia of pyroxene andesite (25 My old) that locally rest on pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. The volcanic rocks of the Picacho area form a slightly bimodal volcanic suite consisting chiefly of silicic volcanic rocks with subordinate andesite. Late Miocene augite-olivine basalt is most similar in major-element abundances to transitional alkali-olivine basalt of the Basin and Range province. Normal separation faults in the Picacho area trend northwest and north parallel to major linear mountain ranges in the region. The areal distribution of the 26-My-old rhyolite ignimbrite and the local presence of megabreccia and fanglomerate flanking probable paleohighs suggest that the ignimbrite was erupted over irregular topography controlled by northwest- and north-trending probable basin-range faults. These relations date the inception of faulting in southeasternmost California at pre-26 and probably pre-32 My ago. A transition of basaltic volcanism in the area is dated at 13 My ago. 9 figures, 2 tables.
Mason, Christine R; Idrobo, Fabio; Early, Susan J; Abibi, Ayome; Zheng, Ling; Harrison, J Michael; Carney, Laurel H
2003-05-01
Experimental studies were performed using a Pavlovian-conditioned eyeblink response to measure detection of a variable-sound-level tone (T) in a fixed-sound-level masking noise (N) in rabbits. Results showed an increase in the asymptotic probability of conditioned responses (CRs) to the reinforced TN trials and a decrease in the asymptotic rate of eyeblink responses to the non-reinforced N presentations as a function of the sound level of the T. These observations are consistent with expected behaviour in an auditory masked detection task, but they are not consistent with predictions from a traditional application of the Rescorla-Wagner or Pearce models of associative learning. To implement these models, one typically considers only the actual stimuli and reinforcement on each trial. We found that by considering perceptual interactions and concepts from signal detection theory, these models could predict the CS dependence on the sound level of the T. In these alternative implementations, the animals response probabilities were used as a guide in making assumptions about the "effective stimuli".
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicola Y. Bailey
2015-06-01
Full Text Available An initial deterministic mathematical model for the dynamic motion of a simple pressurised liquid film bearing is derived and utilised to evaluate the possibility of bearing contact for thin film operation. For a very thin film bearing the flow incorporates a Navier slip boundary condition as parametrised by a slip length that in general is subject to significant variability and is difficult to determine with precision. This work considers the formulation of a modified Reynolds equation for the pressurised liquid flow in a highly rotating coned bearing. Coupling of the axial motion of the stator is induced by prescribed axial oscillations of the rotor through the liquid film. The bearing gap is obtained from solving a nonlinear second-order non-autonomous ordinary differential equation, via a mapping solver. Variability in the value of the slip length parameter is addressed by considering it as a random variable with prescribed mean and standard deviation. The method of derived distributions is used to exactly quantify the impact of variability in the slip length with a parametric study investigating the effect of both the deterministic and distribution parameters on the probability of contact. Additionally, as the axial rotor oscillations also have a random aspect due to possible varying excitations of the system, the probability of contact is investigated for both random amplitude of the periodic rotor oscillations and random slip length, resulting in a two parameter random input problem. The probability of contact is examined to obtain exact solutions and evaluate a range of bearing configurations.
Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick; Frigon, Anne; Ratté-Fortin, Claudie
2014-11-01
Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past.
The conditions of believe and unbelieve in a secular Age
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juan Manuel Cincunegui
2014-05-01
Full Text Available In A Secular Age the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor offered an analytical description and a genealogy of the current conditions of belief and unbelief in the North Atlantic contemporary societies. He encouraged as well a set of similar investigations in other cultural settings that are affected by the processes of modernization. He argues about the existence of ‘alternative modernities’ each one of them facing critically the univocal sociological theories of modernity and secularization that interpreted as universal the process of disenchantment occurred in the West and the setbacks with regard to the presence of religion in the public sphere and religious practice in some contemporary Western societies
Wire system aging assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fantoni, P.F. [Institutt for energiteknikk (Norway); Nordlund, A. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden)
2006-04-15
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. Condition Monitoring (CM) of installed wire systems is an important part of any aging program, both during the first 40 years of the qualified life and even more in anticipation of the license renewal for a nuclear power plant. This report describes a method for wire system condition monitoring, developed at the Halden Reactor Project, which is based on Frequency Domain Reflectometry. This method resulted in the development of a system called LIRA (LIne Resonance Analysis), which can be used on-line to detect any local or global changes in the cable electrical parameters as a consequence of insulation faults or degradation. LIRA is composed of a signal generator, a signal analyser and a simulator that can be used to simulate several failure/degradation scenarios and assess the accuracy and sensitivity of the LIRA system. Chapter 5 of this report describes an complementary approach based on positron measurement techniques, used widely in defect physics due to the high sensitivity to micro defects, in particular open volume defects. This report describes in details these methodologies, the results of field experiments and the proposed future work. (au)
De Geest, Sabina; Steeman, Els; Leventhal, Marcia E; Mahrer-Imhof, Romy; Hengartner-Kopp, Beatrice; Conca, Antoinette; Bernasconi, Arlette T; Petry, Heidi; Brunner-La Rocca, Hanspeter
2004-12-01
The complexity of caring for the ageing heart failure (HF) population is further complicated by concomitant chronic conditions (i.e., polypharmacy, depression), age related impairments (i.e., hearing, visual and cognitive impairments, impairments in activities of daily living (ADL/IADL), and other issues (e.g., health illiteracy, lack of social support). This paper provides an overview of these risk factors, outlines how they individually and in interplay endanger favourable outcome by putting patients at risk for poor self-management. Moreover, suggestions are made on how these issues could be addressed and integrated in heart failure management by applying gerontological care principles in caring for the ageing heart failure population.
A conditional probability analysis (CPA) approach has been developed for identifying biological thresholds of impact for use in the development of geographic-specific water quality criteria for protection of aquatic life. This approach expresses the threshold as the likelihood ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Egemen Unal
2015-09-01
Results: The mean age of the participants was 32.8+/-7.3 years. Prevalence of probable migraine was 13.3% (n=60 and it was significantly higher in women who have been smoking and who had a physician diagnosed chronic diseases. Of the women, 45.1% had poor sleep quality based on the PSQI. The sleep quality of probable migraineurs was found significantly lower than healthy women. Conclusions: To control the probable migraine symptoms and attacks, we suggest to giving regular treatment to women with chronic diseases and reducing the smoking. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(9.000: 2240-2245
Thomas, R.
2012-09-01
The Cerberus Plains have received increasing attention in recent years due to evidence from highresolution imagery that they are some of the youngest surfaces on Mars. The plains are incised by large outflow channels, possibly as recently as 20Ma in the case of Athabasca Valles [2]. These channels are generally thought to be water-carved [1,3], though it is possible they were incised by turbulent lava [8]. As recently as 10Ma or less [5] both the channels and the plains around them are proposed to have been draped with lava [7]. Thus the recent activity forming the Cerberus Plains probably required large volumes of both water and lava. The problem which arises is a source. Cerberus Fossae have been suggested as the source of the Athabasca Valles outflows [3,6], but topographic and stratigraphic issues have arisen which make this unlikely: for example, a streamlined island spans the fossa where water and/or lava is said to have originated [4]. No other specific sources have been identified. As plains volcanism often obscures its fissures, sources should be searched for in features elevated above the plain. New HiRISE images have shown just such a feature: a wrinkle ridge south of Cerberus Fossae incised by a series of fissures. Every fissure has associated channels and deposits indicating outflow onto the plains surrounding the ridge. Until now, the stratigraphic history of these features was poorly known, with Tanaka et al.'s [9] geological map considering the area only on the broadest scale. This study produces small-scale geomorphological maps to establish the stratigraphic relationships between the fissure-sourced outflows and the plains surrounding the ridge to test the hypothesis that they were the source of the plains material. Crater counting is also conducted to supplement stratigraphic observations and give tentative ages.
Dominant Motivation in Schoolchildren: Age Trends and Conditions of Development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I.Yu. Kulagina
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The paper addresses the issue of the development of dominant motivation, or motivation of oversituational level, regarded as the general vector that defines basic patterns of behavior of an individual in various situations and activities. Dominant motivation represents the attitude towards the world (towards other people and work and oneself and underpins personality orientation on the ontogenetic stage of personality stabilization. The paper describes data of an empirical study carried out on a sample of 403 children and adolescents using an inventory developed by the author. The data provide an insight into the population dynamics of motivation development in schoolage children and teenagers. As it was revealed, moral motivation actively develops in early school age, whereas egocentric and hedonistic motivation develops in adolescence. The paper provides characteristics both of motivational profiles that promote socialization in adolescents and of the ones that do not. It concludes that moral motivation dominates in favorable educational and upbringing conditions (in teenagers with normal intellectual development studying at ordinary schools and in gifted children and teenagers with high levels of intellectual development studying at gymnasiums, while hedonistic motivation dominates in children who are brought up in children's homes; homeless adolescents display no differentiation of motives at all
Brandt, Martina; Deindl, Christian; Hank, Karsten
2012-05-01
This study investigates the role of childhood conditions and social inequality in older Europeans' propensity to age successfully, controlling for later life risk factors. Successful aging was assessed following Rowe and Kahn's conceptualization, using baseline interviews from the first two waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). These data were merged with retrospective information on participants from 13 Continental European countries, collected as part of the SHARELIFE project. Our sample consists of 22,464 men and women, who are representative of the non-institutionalized population aged 50 or older (mean age: 63.3) in their respective country. Estimating multilevel logistic models, we controlled for demographics (age, sex), childhood conditions (SES, health, cognition), later life risk factors (various dimensions of SES and health behaviors), as well as social inequality (measured by country-specific Gini coefficients). There is an independent association of childhood living conditions with elders' odds of aging well. Higher parental SES, better math and reading skills, as well as self-reports of good childhood health were positively associated with successful aging, even if contemporary characteristics were controlled for. Later life SES and health behaviors exhibited the expected correlations with our dependent variable. Moreover, lower levels of income inequality were associated with a greater probability of meeting Rowe and Kahn's successful aging criteria. We conclude that unfavorable childhood conditions exhibit a harmful influence on individuals' chances to age well across all European welfare states considered in this study. Policy interventions should thus aim at improving the conditions for successful aging throughout the entire life course.
Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Lambin, Xavier
2011-09-01
1. Natal conditions and senescence are two major factors shaping life-history traits of wild animals. However, such factors have rarely been investigated together, and it remains largely unknown whether they interact to affect age-specific performance. 2. We used 27 years of longitudinal data collected on tawny owls with estimates of prey density (field voles) from Kielder Forest (UK) to investigate how prey density at birth affects ageing patterns in reproduction and survival. 3. Natal conditions experienced by tawny owls, measured in terms of vole density, dramatically varied among cohorts and explained 87% of the deviance in first-year apparent survival (annual estimates ranging from 0·07 to 0·33). 4. We found evidence for senescence in survival for females as well as for males. Model-averaged estimates showed that adult survival probability declined linearly with age for females from age 1. In contrast, male survival probability, lower on average than for female, declined after a plateau at age 1-3. 5. We also found evidence for reproductive senescence (number of offspring). For females, reproductive performance increased until age 9 then declined. Males showed an earlier decline in reproductive performance with an onset of senescence at age 3. 6. Long-lasting effects of natal environmental conditions were sex specific. Female reproductive performance was substantially related to natal conditions (difference of 0·24 fledgling per breeding event between females born in the first or third quartile of vole density), whereas male performance was not. We found no evidence for tawny owls born in years with low prey density having accelerated rates of senescence. 7. Our results, combined with previous findings, suggest the way natal environmental conditions affect senescence varies not only across species but also within species according to gender and the demographic trait considered.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
袁修开; 吕震宙; 周长聪
2012-01-01
结构失效概率为设计参数的函数的求解是可靠性优化中的关键问题.提出一种失效概率函数的高效求解方法及一种新的可靠性度量指标,它为失效概率函数在分布参数空间上的统计特征值.所提方法的主要思路是采用条件概率模拟及三阶最大熵法来求解失效概率函数.条件概率模拟法是引入中间失效域,将所求失效概率转化成条件概率比值与中间失效域的概率的乘积形式,并通过两次马尔科夫链模拟分别对失效域及中间失效域的模拟来得到条件概率的比值.中间失效域为线性形式,其失效概率可容易求得.此外还采用三阶最大熵法来得到失效域样本的条件密度分布,最终得到所求的失效概率函数.结合算例探讨所提方法的精度、效率和适用性,结果表明所提的求解方法在确保精度的情况下具有较高的效率,在工程上是可行的.%The solution of the failure probability as a function of the distribution parameters is the key problem in reliability-based optimization. A novel method is proposed to obtain the failure probability function and a new reliability measure, which is the statistics characteristic value of the failure probability function. The key idea of the proposed method is using the conditional probability Markov chain simulation and the third order maximum entropy method to obtain the failure probability function. The conditional probability Markov chain simulation firstly transforms the failure probability into the product of a feature ratio factor and the probability of an introduced linear failure region, and then Markov chain algorithm is adopted to calculate the ratio factor by directly simulating the samples of the failure regions, the probability of the introduced linear failure region can be calculated easily. The third order maximum entropy method is implemented to estimate the conditional density function based on failure samples and obtain
Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios
2016-06-01
Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.
Rinastiti, Margareta; Siswomihardjo, Widowati; Busscher, Henk J.; Ozcan, Mutlu
2011-01-01
This study evaluates effects of aging on repair bond strengths of microhybrid, nanohybrid, and nanofilled composite resins and characterizes the interacting surfaces after aging. Disk-shaped composite specimens were assigned to one of three aging conditions: (1) thermocycling (5,000x, 5-55 degrees C
Physical properties of maxillofacial elastomers under conditions of accelerated aging.
Yu, R; Koran, A; Craig, R G
1980-06-01
The stability of the physical properties of various commercially available maxillofacial prosthetic materials was evaluated with the use of an accelerated aging chamber. The tensile strength, maximum percent elongation, shear strength, tear energy, and Shore A hardness were determined before and after accelerated aging. Results indicate that silicone 44210, a RTV rubber, is a promising elastomer for maxillofacial application.
Automatic age and gaze estimation under uncontrolled conditions
Alnajar, F.
2016-01-01
Can the computer learn a person’s age just from analyzing facial images obtained by a simple webcam? If so, you can automatically determine if a person has the right age to buy beer (shops), to use a credit card (retail), and can enter bars (entertainment). Can the computer automatically recognize w
Wire system ageing assessment and condition monitoring (WASCO)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ekelund, M; Gedde, U.W. (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). Fibre and Polymer Technology, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, Stockholm (Sweden)); Fantoni, P.F. (Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), Halden (Norway))
2011-05-15
Nuclear facilities rely on electrical wire systems to perform a variety of functions for successful operation. Many of these functions directly support the safe operation of the facility; therefore, the continued reliability of wire systems, even as they age, is critical. In this report 3 techniques for cable global ageing assessment were tested and evaluated. The EAB technique is a destructive, local technique that is often used as a reference for other methods. The indenter is a local, in-situ mechanical technique that is currently quite often used in NPPs. LIRA is an electrical method, full line, in-situ. LIRA correlated quite well with EAB and both tend to flatten when the ageing time reaches 40 years. The only cable type that was difficult to assess for all the 3 methods was the medium type in air environment. These tests considered only thermal ageing, up to 50 years and should be completed by considering also gamma irradiation ageing. (Author)
[Income as a condition of self care in the aged].
Pfaff, A B
1982-01-01
The current type of distribution of tasks between the generations leads to a system of income maintenance programs for the aged, which is based on their own past (largely statutory) provision for their old age income via public institutions. On the whole, the aged are to a very limited degree in the labor force. Most of them receive public transfer payments. On the average, the diverse income maintenance systems dependent on own past performance provide a fairly substantial income level when compared with wages and salaries. The transfer level is largely dependent on the type of old age security institution, on the extent of past labor force participation or contribution and past income; consequently it is quite diverse. Sex largely correlates with income differentials. While some groups end up with retirement incomes higher than their last wage income, others are definitely needy. Especially women constitute a substantial part of the poor. Besides low income, the danger of becoming a nursing case makes the aged dependent on other persons' or institutions' aid. The forthcoming reform of the public pension system shows little hope of eliminating the pockets of poverty among the aged by assuring a redistribution also among the aged.
Dong, P; Zhao, J; Zhang, Y; Dong, J; Zhang, L; Li, D; Li, L; Zhang, X; Yang, B; Lei, W
2014-09-05
Aging is associated with exacerbated brain injury after ischemic stroke. Herein, we explored the possible mechanisms underlying the age-associated exacerbated brain injury after ischemic stroke and determined whether therapeutic intervention with anesthetic post-conditioning would provide neuroprotection in aged rats. Male Fisher 344 rats (young, 4 months; aged, 24 months) underwent 2h of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) followed by 24-h reperfusion, with or without sevoflurane post-conditioning for 15 min immediately at the onset of reperfusion. Compared with young rats, aged rats showed larger infarct size, worse neurological scores and more TUNEL-positive cells in the penumbral cerebral cortex at 24h after MCAO. However, edema formation and motor coordination were similar in both groups. Sevoflurane reduced the infarct size, edema formation, and TUNEL-positive cells, and improved the neurological outcome in young rats but not in aged rats. Molecular studies revealed that basal expression of the anti-apoptotic molecule B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2) in the brain was lower in aged rats compared with young rats before MCAO, while basal expression of the pro-apoptotic molecule Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax) showed similar levels in both groups. MCAO reduced Bcl-2 expression and increased Bax expression in both groups; however, Bax increase was more pronounced in aged rats. In young rats, sevoflurane reversed the above MCAO-induced changes. In contrast, sevoflurane failed to enhance Bcl-2 expression but decreased Bax expression in aged rats. These findings suggest that aging-associated reduction in basal Bcl-2 expression in the brain contributes to increased neuronal injury by enhancing cell apoptosis after ischemic stroke. Sevoflurane post-conditioning failed to provide neuroprotection in aged rats, probably due to its inability to increase Bcl-2 levels and prevent apoptosis in the brain.
Ageing of portland cement concrete cured under moist conditions
Yu, Z.; Ye, G.; Van Breugel, K.; Chen, W.
2014-01-01
Deterioration of microstructure in cement concrete will cause changes in the transport properties of the concrete. Transport properties at different ages of the concrete provide information about the microstructural changes of the material. A way to measure the transport properties, i.e. the chlorid
Effect of physicochemical aging conditions on the composite-composite repair bond strength
Brendeke, Johannes; Ozcan, Mutlu
2007-01-01
Purpose: This study evaluated the effect of different physicochemical aging methods and surface conditioning techniques on the repair bond strength of composite. It was hypothesized that the aging conditions would decrease the repair bond strength and surface conditioning methods would perform simil
Conditional Genealogies and the Age of a Neutral Mutant
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wiuf, Carsten; Donelly, P
1999-01-01
This paper is concerned with the structure of the genealogy of a sample in which it is observed that some subset of chromosomes carries a particular mutation, assumed to have arisen uniquely in the history of the population. A rigorous theoretical study of this conditional genealogy is given using...
Ageing of low-firing prehistoric ceramics in hydrothermal conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petra Zemenová
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Remains of a prehistoric ceramic object, a moon-shaped idol from the Bronze Age found in archaeological site Zdiby near Prague in the Czech Republic, were studied especially in terms of the firing temperature. Archaeological ceramics was usually fired at temperatures below 1000 °C. It contained unstable non-crystalline products, residua after calcination of clay components of a ceramic material. These products as metakaolinite can undergo a reverse rehydration to a structure close to kaolinite. The aim of this work was to prove whether the identified kaolinite in archaeological ceramics is a product of rehydration. The model compound containing high amount of kaolinite was prepared in order to follow its changes during calcination and hydrothermal treatment. Archaeological ceramics and the model compound were treated by hydrothermal ageing and studied by XRF, XRD and IR analyses. It was proved that the presence of kaolinite in the border-parts of the archaeological object was not a product of rehydration, but that it originated from the raw materials.
Gao, Yu; Raine, Adrian; Venables, Peter H.; Dawson, Michael E.; Mednick, Sarnoff A.
2010-01-01
Background: Poor fear conditioning characterizes adult psychopathy and criminality, but it is not known whether it is related to aggressive/antisocial behavior in early childhood. Methods: Using a differential, partial reinforcement conditioning paradigm, electrodermal activity was recorded from 200 male and female children at ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and…
Ozcan, Mutlu; Barbosa, Silvia Helena; Melo, Renata Marques; Galhano, Graziela Avila Prado; Bottino, Marco Antonio
2007-01-01
Objectives. This study evaluated the effect of two different surface conditioning methods on the repair bond strength of a bis-GMA-adduct/bis-EMA/TEGDMA based resin composite after three aging conditions. Methods. Thirty-six composite resin blocks (Esthet X, Dentsply) were prepared (5 mm x 6 mm x 6
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qihong Duan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available We study a multistate model for an aging piece of equipment under condition-based maintenance and apply an expectation maximization algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. Because of the monitoring discontinuity, we cannot observe any state's duration. The observation consists of the equipment's state at an inspection or right after a repair. Based on a proper construction of stochastic processes involved in the model, calculation of some probabilities and expectations becomes tractable. Using these probabilities and expectations, we can apply an expectation maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters in the model. We carry out simulation studies to test the accuracy and the efficiency of the algorithm.
Vanzella, Cláudia; Sanches, Eduardo Farias; Odorcyk, Felipe Kawa; Nicola, Fabrício; Kolling, Janaína; Longoni, Aline; Dos Santos, Tiago Marcon; Wyse, Angela Terezinha de Souza; Netto, Carlos Alexandre
2017-02-16
Regular physical activity has shown to improve the quality of life and to prevent age-related memory deficits. Memory processing requires proper regulation of several enzymes such as sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na(+), K(+)-ATPase) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE), which have a pivotal role in neuronal transmission. The present study investigated the effects of a treadmill running protocol in young (3 months), mature (6 months) and aged (22 months) Wistar rats, on: (a) cognitive function, as assessed in the Water maze spatial tasks; (b) Na(+), K(+)-ATPase and AChE activities in the hippocampus following cognitive training alone or treadmill running combined with cognitive training. Animals of all ages were assigned to naïve (with no behavioral or exercise training), sedentary (non-exercised, with cognitive training) and exercised (20 min of daily running sessions, 3 times per week for 4 weeks and with cognitive training) groups. Cognition was assessed by reference and working memory tasks run in the Morris Water maze; 24 h after last session of behavioral testing, hippocampi were collected for biochemical analysis. Results demonstrated that: (a) a moderate treadmill running exercise prevented spatial learning and memory deficits in aged rats; (b) training in the Water maze increased both Na(+), K(+)-ATPase and AChE activities in the hippocampus of mature and aged rats; (c) aged exercised rats displayed an even further increase of Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity in the hippocampus, (d) enzyme activity correlated with memory performance in aged rats. It is suggested that exercise prevents spatial memory deficits in aged rats probably through the activation of Na(+), K(+)-ATPase in the hippocampus.
Little, Arlene H.; And Others
1984-01-01
Reports that lengthy interstimulus interval facilitates classical conditioning in very young infants. Infants trained in a single session at 20 days of age exhibited reliable retention of the conditioned eyelid reflex 10 days later, but infants 10 days of age did not. (Author)
Scheltens, P; Leys, D; Barkhof, F; Huglo, D; Weinstein, H C; Vermersch, P; Kuiper, M; Steinling, M; Wolters, E C; Valk, J
1992-10-01
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has shown a great reduction in medial temporal lobe and hippocampal volume of patients with Alzheimer's disease as compared to controls. Quantitative volumetric measurements are not yet available for routine clinical use. We investigated whether visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on plain MRI films could distinguish patients with Alzheimer's disease (n = 21) from age matched controls (n = 21). The degree of MTA was ascertained with a ranking procedure and validated by linear measurements of the medial temporal lobe including the hippocampal formation and surrounding spaces occupied by cerebrospinal fluid. Patients with Alzheimer's disease showed a significantly higher degree of subjectively assessed MTA than controls (p = 0.0005). Linear measurements correlated highly with subjective assessment of MTA and also showed significant differences between groups. Ventricular indices did not differ significantly between groups. In Alzheimer's disease patients the degree of MTA correlated significantly with scores on the mini-mental state examination and memory tests, but poorly with mental speed tests. This study shows that MTA may be assessed quickly and easily with plain MRI films. MTA shown on MRI strongly supports the clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, is related to memory function, and seems to occur earlier in the disease process than does generalised brain atrophy.
Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Sun, Alexander Y.; Xia, Youlong
2016-11-01
Prediction of drought plays an important role in drought preparedness and mitigation, especially because of large impacts of drought and increasing demand for water resources. An important aspect for improving drought prediction skills is the identification of drought predictability sources. In general, a drought originates from precipitation deficit and thus the antecedent meteorological drought may provide predictive information for other types of drought. In this study, a hydrological drought (represented by Standardized Runoff Index (SRI)) prediction method is proposed based on the meta-Gaussian model taking into account the persistence and its prior meteorological drought condition (represented by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)). Considering the inherent nature of standardized drought indices, the meta-Gaussian model arises as a suitable model for constructing the joint distribution of multiple drought indices. Accordingly, the conditional distribution of hydrological drought can be derived analytically, which enables the probabilistic prediction of hydrological drought in the target period and uncertainty quantifications. Based on monthly precipitation and surface runoff of climate divisions of Texas, U.S., 1-month and 2-month lead predictions of hydrological drought are illustrated and compared to the prediction from Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). Results, based on 10 climate divisions in Texas, show that the proposed meta-Gaussian model provides useful drought prediction information with performance depending on regions and seasons.
Rinastiti, Margareta; Özcan, Mutlu; Siswomihardjo, Widowati; Busscher, Henk J
2011-10-01
This study evaluates effects of aging on repair bond strengths of microhybrid, nanohybrid, and nanofilled composite resins and characterizes the interacting surfaces after aging. Disk-shaped composite specimens were assigned to one of three aging conditions: (1) thermocycling (5,000 ×, 5-55 °C), (2) storage in water at 37 °C for 6 months, or (3) immersion in citric acid at 37 °C, pH 3 for 1 week; a non-aged group acted as the control. Two surface conditionings were selected: intermediate adhesive resin application (IAR-application) and chairside silica coating followed by silanization and its specific IAR-application (SC-application). Composite resins, of the same kind as their substrate, were adhered onto the substrates, and repair shear bond strengths were determined, followed by failure type evaluation. Filler particle exposure was determined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and surface roughness analyzed using scanning electron and atomic force microscopy. Surface roughness increased in all composite resins after aging, but filler particle exposure at the surface only increased after thermocycling and citric acid immersion. Composite resin type, surface conditioning, and aging method significantly influenced the repair bond strengths (p water storage. Repair bond strengths in aged composite resins after IAR-application were always lower in non-aged ones, while SC-application led to higher bond strengths than IAR-application after thermocycling and water storage. In addition, SC-application led to more cohesive failures than after IAR-application, regardless the aging method.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
雷庆祝; 秦永松
2007-01-01
本文用经验似然方法讨论了条件密度的置信区间的构造.通过对覆盖概率的Edgeworth展开得到了经验似然置信区间的覆盖精度,同时证明了条件密度的经验似然置信区间的Bartlett可修正性.%Point-wise confidence intervals for a conditional probability density function are considered.The confidence intervals are based on the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.
Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities
Zak, Michail
1996-01-01
It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.
Imprecise Estimation for Conditional Outage Probabilities of Power Components%电力设备停运概率的非精确条件估计
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刁浩然; 杨明; 韩学山; 马世英; 刘道伟; 王剑辉
2016-01-01
By using limited outage samples, it is difficult to obtain the operational reliability indexes of power components accurately. Therefore, estimating the fluctuation ranges of the indexes can provide a more objective decision-making basis for power system operational risk control. In this paper, a novel approach was proposed to estimate the imprecise conditional outage probabilities of power components based on the credal network (CN), which could evaluate the interval ranges of conditional probabilities. Based on the historical outage statistics and the component operational conditions at the target period, a credal network, which used the imprecise Dirichlet model (IDM) to get the imprecise probabilistic dependencies, was set up to estimate the imprecise conditional outage probabilities. Therefore, the imprecise outage probabilities of components can be obtained by using the reasoning algorithm of the credal network. The proposed approach can reflect the variation of the conditional outage probabilities with respected to the operational conditions of the power components, and breaks a new way for the reliability assessment of power components with limited outage observations. Results on estimating the imprecise conditional outage probabilities of LGJ-300 transmission lines located in Shandong province illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.%在小样本条件下，电力设备的运行可靠性参数难以精确获取，对其波动范围进行估计，可为电力系统运行提供更为客观、全面的评估与决策依据。由此，该文提出了一种基于信度网络(credal network, CN)的电力设备停运概率的非精确条件估计方法，对暴露型设备运行中条件相依的停运概率指标的区间范围进行估计。该方法基于设备停运的历史统计数据和估计目标时段的运行工况条件，构建了处理非精确条件概率推断问题的信度网络，并利用多状态随机变量的
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...
Gudder, Stanley P
2014-01-01
Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
Aldars-García, Laila; Ramos, Antonio J; Sanchis, Vicente; Marín, Sonia
2015-10-01
Human exposure to aflatoxins in foods is of great concern. The aim of this work was to use predictive mycology as a strategy to mitigate the aflatoxin burden in pistachio nuts postharvest. The probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production of aflatoxigenic Aspergillus flavus, isolated from pistachio nuts, under static and non-isothermal conditions was studied. Four theoretical temperature scenarios, including temperature levels observed in pistachio nuts during shipping and storage, were used. Two types of inoculum were included: a cocktail of 25 A. flavus isolates and a single isolate inoculum. Initial water activity was adjusted to 0.87. Logistic models, with temperature and time as explanatory variables, were fitted to the probability of growth and AFB1 production under a constant temperature. Subsequently, they were used to predict probabilities under non-isothermal scenarios, with levels of concordance from 90 to 100% in most of the cases. Furthermore, the presence of AFB1 in pistachio nuts could be correctly predicted in 70-81 % of the cases from a growth model developed in pistachio nuts, and in 67-81% of the cases from an AFB1 model developed in pistachio agar. The information obtained in the present work could be used by producers and processors to predict the time for AFB1 production by A. flavus on pistachio nuts during transport and storage.
Probability and radical behaviorism
Espinosa, James M.
1992-01-01
The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114
Probability and radical behaviorism
Espinosa, James M.
1992-01-01
The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforc...
The Classical Conditioning of Attitudes: A Comparative Study of Ages 8 to 18
O'Donnell, John M.; Brown, Mari J. K.
1973-01-01
Results of this study indicated that attitude conditioning increased with age and that the increase appeared to be a function of contingency awareness and perhaps also a function of the older subjects' having greater facility in transferring symbolic meaning. (Author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...
Probability Theory without Bayes' Rule
Rodriques, Samuel G.
2014-01-01
Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative inference rules that yield the same results, and that may have computational or practical advantages for certain problems. We formulate generalized axioms for probability theory, according to which the reverse conditional probability distribution P(B|A) is no...
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
San Antonio, Marianne C.; Fenick, Ada M.; Shabanova, Veronika; Leventhal, John M.; Weitzman, Carol C.
2014-01-01
Developmental screens are often used in nonstandardized conditions, such as pediatric waiting rooms, despite validation under standardized conditions. We examined the reproducibility of the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), a developmental screening instrument commonly used in pediatric practices, under standardized versus nonstandardized…
Kim, Yong-Hak
2016-01-01
Multidrug resistance of Gram-negative bacilli is a major problem globally. However, little is known about the combined probability of resistance to various antibiotics. In this study, minimum inhibitory concentrations of widely used antibiotics were determined using clinical isolates of Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Acinetobacter baumannii, randomly chosen from strain collections created during 1999-2009 in tertiary medical institutions in Seoul, South Korea. To analyze combined efficacy of antibiotics against a subgroup of isolates, conditional probabilities were determined based on arbitrary, non-independent patterns of antimicrobial susceptibility and resistance. Multidrug resistance, defined as resistance to three or more classes of antibiotics, was observed in the following order: A. baumannii (96%), P. aeruginosa (65%), E. coli (52%), and K. pneumoniae (7%). A. baumannii strains resistant to gentamicin were found to be resistant to a number of antibiotics, except for colistin and polymyxin B. Resistance to gentamicin following exposure to this antibiotic was highly likely to lead to multidrug resistance in all four microbes. This study shows a causal relationship between gentamicin resistance and the prevalence of multidrug resistance in clinical isolates of Gramnegative bacilli in South Korea during 1999-2009 and suggests the importance of prudent use of gentamicin in hospitals.
Water Age Responses to Weather Conditions in a Hyper-Eutrophic Channel Reservoir in Southern China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Du
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Channel reservoirs have the characteristics of both rivers and lakes, in which hydrodynamic conditions and the factors affecting the eutrophication process are complex and highly affected by weather conditions. Water age at any location in the reservoir is used as an indicator for describing the spatial and temporal variations of water exchange and nutrient transport. The hyper-eutrophic Changtan Reservoir (CTR in Southern China was investigated. Three weather conditions including wet, normal, and dry years were considered for assessing the response of water age by using the coupled watershed model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model Environmental Fluid Hydrodynamic Code (EFDC. The results showed that the water age in CTR varied tremendously under different weather conditions. The averaged water ages at the downstream of CTR were 3 d, 60 d, and 110 d, respectively in the three typical wet, normal, and dry years. The highest water ages at the main tributary were >70 d, >100 d, and >200 d, respectively. The spatial distribution of water ages in the tributaries and the reservoir were mainly affected by precipitation. This paper provides useful information on water exchange and transport pathways in channel reservoir, which will be helpful in understanding nutrient dynamics for controlling algal blooms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yeonho Park
2014-06-01
Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of accelerated aging conditions on the long-term flexural behavior and ductility of reinforced concrete (RC members with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP bars (RC-GFRP specimen and steel bars (RC-steel specimen. A total of thirty six specimens were designed with different amounts of reinforcement with three types of reinforcing bars (i.e., helically wrapped GFRP, sand-coated surface GFRP and steel. Eighteen specimens were subjected to sustained loads and accelerated aging conditions (i.e., 47 °C and 80% relative humidity in a chamber. The flexural behavior of specimens under 300-day exposure was compared to that of the companion specimens without experiencing accelerated aging conditions. Results indicate that the accelerated aging conditions reduced flexural capacity in not only RC-steel, but also RC-GFRP specimens, with different rates of reduction. Different types of GFRP reinforcement exhibited different rates of degradation of the flexural capacity when embedded in concrete under the same exposure conditions. Several existing models were compared with experimental results for predicting the deflection and deformability index for specimens. Bischoff and Gross’s model exhibited an excellent prediction of the time-dependent deflections. Except for the deformability index proposed by Jaeger, there was no general trend related to the aging duration. This study recommends the need for further investigation on the prediction of the deformability index.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kelly Holanda Prezotto
2015-02-01
Full Text Available OBJECTIVE to describe hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in children under five years of age in the State of Paraná, Brazil by condition type, age group and health region. METHOD a temporal ecological study was conducted using data from the Unified Health System Hospital Information System for the period 2000 to 2011. Conditions were grouped in accordance with the list of ambulatory care sensitive conditions in Brazil. RESULTS there was an increase in the rate of admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in all age groups in 50% of the health regions, with a marked increase in children under the age of one. Pneumonia, gastroenteritis and asthma were the main causes of admissions. There was an increase in the proportion of overall admissions accounted for by pneumonia and gastroenteritis. CONCLUSION the increase in admissions reveals the need for actions to improve access to primary healthcare and provide effective treatment of the main ambulatory care sensitive conditions in order to prevent hospital admissions among children.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
郑智捷
2011-01-01
针对常见的两类量子交互干涉实验,Young 氏双缝干涉和超低强度长时间曝光量子交互结果显示出的明显波动统计分布特性,本文基于另一种经典概率测量模型Bayes统计依据的条件概率方法,提出条件概率变值测量模型,建立了测量模拟方法,给出了不同参量的测量公式,并对相关的重要条件进行描述.通过2个具体例子按每个函数形成四组16个直方图统计分布进行比较,对给定例子中的重要特性进行了分析.分析表明,在同步/异步、对称/反对称的作用下,条件概率测量模拟系统能针对左路、右路、双路粒子和双路波动交互作条件形成两类8种不同的统计分布.从不同的侧面显现了双路粒子同左/右路异步加算符信号之间的直接耦合关系,以及左/右路同步加算符信号与双路波动之间的干涉输出关系.在条件概率模型的条件下,单路/双路、粒子和波动的区别非常明晰,可以从中看到Feynman提炼的经典和量子统计之间的区别,统计判据直接从直方图分布中即可区分.这类特性从基础层面显示了波/粒二重性的怪异特性,可以通过粒子性的模型完整描述.%Two quantum interactive experiments are shown in strong wave-like interference properties, ie Young double slit experiment and very lower intensive and very long time explosin experiment for quanta. This paper is based on a classical statistic scheme: Bayes statistics on Conditional Probability to propose conditional probability measurements and relevant statistcal models to visualized complex properties of their interactions. Variant measurement simulation model is established and corresponding measring equations and perameters are formulated . Two typical cases are selected and each time has corresponding to four groups of results in 16 histograms. Under this construction, it is feasible to understand the intrinsic wave-like properties of quantum interactions
A behavioral stages model of classical (Pavlovian) conditioning: application to cognitive aging.
Powell, D A
1999-01-01
In the present article, it is argued that a five-stage sequential model of the behavioral and neurophysiological events that occur when organisms are exposed to signals predicting significant events suggests that classical conditioning produces multiple memory traces involving both excitatory and inhibitory processes. Further, these multiple brain structures and associated neurophysiological mechanisms are beginning to be understood; thus, using Pavlovian conditioning techniques to study aging and cognitive functions may provide insights into which brain structures or mechanisms are responsible for more general age-related declines in associative learning and memory. The evidence for this model is briefly reviewed and studies suggesting age-related effects on classical conditioning of various response systems are described within the context of the brain structures implicated by the model.
Effect of age condition on fatigue properties of 2E12 aluminum alloy
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
YAN Liang; DU Feng-shan; DAI Sheng-long; YANG Shou-jie
2010-01-01
The fatigue behaviors of 2E12 aluminum alloy in T3 and T6 conditions at room temperature in air were investigated.The microstructures and fatigue fracture surfaces of the alloy were examined by transmission electron microscopy(TEM)and scanning electron microscopy(SEM).The results show that the alloy exhibits higher fatigue crack propagation(FCP)resistance in T3condition than in T6 condition,the fatigue life is increased by 54% and the fatigue crack growth rate(FCGR)decreases significantly.The fatigue fractures of the alloy in T3 and T6 conditions are transgranular.But in T3 condition,secondary cracks occur and fatigue striations are not clear.In T6 condition,ductile fatigue striations are observed.The effect of aging conditions on fatigue behaviors is explained in terms of the slip planarity of dislocations and the cyclic slip reversibility.
Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, L. Niel
2009-01-01
The Eagle River watershed is located near the destination resort town of Vail, Colorado. The area has a fastgrowing permanent population, and the resort industry is rapidly expanding. A large percentage of the land undergoing development to support that growth overlies the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer (ERWVFA), which likely has a high predisposition to groundwater contamination. As development continues, local organizations need tools to evaluate potential land-development effects on ground- and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. To help develop these tools, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, conducted a study in 2006-2007 of the groundwater quality, age, and probability of contamination in the ERWVFA, north-central Colorado. Ground- and surface-water quality samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water, tritium, dissolved gases, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) determined with very low-level laboratory methods. The major-ion data indicate that groundwaters in the ERWVFA can be classified into two major groups: groundwater that was recharged by infiltration of surface water, and groundwater that had less immediate recharge from surface water and had elevated sulfate concentrations. Sulfate concentrations exceeded the USEPA National Secondary Drinking Water Regulations (250 milligrams per liter) in many wells near Eagle, Gypsum, and Dotsero. The predominant source of sulfate to groundwater in the Eagle River watershed is the Eagle Valley Evaporite, which is a gypsum deposit of Pennsylvanian age located predominantly in the western one-half of Eagle County.
Time-dependent Early-age Behaviors of Concrete under Restrained Condition
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
MA Xinwei; CAO Lixin; R D Hooton; H Lam; NIU Changren
2007-01-01
To investigate the early-age behaviors of concrete under a restrained condition, a set of apparatus was developed. In this way, the tensile creep and other early-age properties can be investigated in depth. By measuring the modulus of elasticity of concrete, synchronous shrinkage of concrete and steel rings and free shrinkage of concrete, the deformations of concrete ring can be quantified respectively. The experimental results show the tensile stress in concrete is time-dependent, and the stress at cracking is much lower than the tensile strength at that age; the tensile creep plays an important role in relaxing the tensile stress and postponing the cracking of concrete.
Dielectric Spectroscopy of Bisphenol A Epoxy Resin Aged in Wet and Dry Conditions
2009-01-01
This thesis presents the laboratory test data on Bisphenol A epoxy insulation.This thesis work deals with electrical, mechanical and thermal analysis of Bisphenol A epoxy resin. The main aim of this thesis work was to examine if dry and wet aging changes the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the epoxies and measure the impact on the complex permittivity under different ageing conditions namely dry and wet. During ageing the samples (epoxy discs and dog bones) were kept in water at 20°C, 45...
Ragghianti,Mariana Schützer; Greghi, Sebastião Luiz Aguiar; LAURIS, José Roberto Pereira; SANT'ANA, Adriana Campos Passanezi; PASSANEZI, Euloir
2004-01-01
Epidemiology is the study of health and disease in populations, and of how these conditions are influenced by heredity, biology, physical environment, social environment, and personal behavior. There are many epidemiological studies in Brazilian population but few about the influence of some risk factors in periodontal conditions. This cross-sectional study was performed to assess the influence of age, sex, plaque and smoking on periodontal disease in a population from Bauru (Brazil). Data co...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janvier Sylvestre N’cho
2016-05-01
Full Text Available A power transformer outage has a dramatic financial consequence not only for electric power systems utilities but also for interconnected customers. The service reliability of this important asset largely depends upon the condition of the oil-paper insulation. Therefore, by keeping the qualities of oil-paper insulation system in pristine condition, the maintenance planners can reduce the decline rate of internal faults. Accurate diagnostic methods for analyzing the condition of transformers are therefore essential. Currently, there are various electrical and physicochemical diagnostic techniques available for insulation condition monitoring of power transformers. This paper is aimed at the description, analysis and interpretation of modern physicochemical diagnostics techniques for assessing insulation condition in aged transformers. Since fields and laboratory experiences have shown that transformer oil contains about 70% of diagnostic information, the physicochemical analyses of oil samples can therefore be extremely useful in monitoring the condition of power transformers.
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Alnajar, F.; Shan, C.; Gevers, T.; Geusebroek, J.M.
2012-01-01
In this paper we propose to adopt a learning-based encoding method for age estimation under unconstrained imaging conditions. A similar approach [Cao et al., 2010] is applied to face recognition in real-life face images. However, the feature vectors are encoded in hard manner i.e. each feature vecto
Health conditions associated with aging and end of life of adults with Down syndrome.
Esbensen, Anna J
2010-01-01
Expectations for the life course of individuals with Down syndrome (DS) have changed, with life expectancy estimates increasing from 12 in 1949 to nearly 60 years of age today (Bittles & Glasson, 2004; Penrose, 1949). Along with this longer life expectancy comes a larger population of adults with DS who display premature age-related changes in their health. There is thus a need to provide specialized health care to this aging population of adults with DS who are at high risk for some conditions and at lower risk for others. This review focuses on the rates and contributing factors to medical conditions that are common in adults with DS or that show changes with age. The review of medical conditions includes the increased risk for skin and hair changes, early onset menopause, visual and hearing impairments, adult onset seizure disorder, thyroid dysfunction, diabetes, obesity, sleep apnea and musculoskeletal problems. The different pattern of conditions associated with the mortality of adults with DS is also reviewed.
Electrical-Based Diagnostic Techniques for Assessing Insulation Condition in Aged Transformers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Issouf Fofana
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The condition of the internal cellulosic paper and oil insulation are of concern for the performance of power transformers. Over the years, a number of methods have been developed to diagnose and monitor the degradation/aging of the transformer internal insulation system. Some of this degradation/aging can be assessed from electrical responses. Currently there are a variety of electrical-based diagnostic techniques available for insulation condition monitoring of power transformers. In most cases, the electrical signals being monitored are due to mechanical or electric changes caused by physical changes in resistivity, inductance or capacitance, moisture, contamination or aging by-products in the insulation. This paper presents a description of commonly used and modern electrical-based diagnostic techniques along with their interpretation schemes.
Fougère, Bertrand; Vellas, Bruno; Billet, Sylvain; Martin, Perrine J; Gallucci, Maurizio; Cesari, Matteo
2015-11-01
The rapid growth in the number of older adults has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures. Aging leads to a decline and deterioration of functional properties at the cellular, tissue and organ level. This loss of functional properties yields to a loss of homeostasis and decreased adaptability to internal and external stress. Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness, weight loss, and low activity that is associated with adverse health outcomes. Frailty manifests as an age-related, biological vulnerability to stressors and decreased physiological reserves. Ambient air pollution exposure affects human health, and elderly people appear to be particularly susceptible to its adverse effects. The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of air pollution in the modulation of several biological mechanisms involved in aging. Evidence is presented on how air pollution can modify the bidirectional association between successful and pathological aging throughout the frailty conditions.
Early-life conditions and age at first pregnancy in British women.
Nettle, Daniel; Coall, David A; Dickins, Thomas E
2011-06-01
There is growing evidence that the reproductive schedules of female mammals can be affected by conditions experienced during early development, with low parental investment leading to accelerated life-history strategies in the offspring. In humans, the relationships between early-life conditions and timing of puberty are well studied, but much less attention has been paid to reproductive behaviour. Here, we investigate associations between early-life conditions and age at first pregnancy (AFP) in a large, longitudinally studied cohort of British women (n = 4553). Low birthweight for gestational age, short duration of breastfeeding, separation from mother in childhood, frequent family residential moves and lack of paternal involvement are all independently associated with earlier first pregnancy. Apart from that of birthweight, the effects are robust to adjustment for family socioeconomic position (SEP) and the cohort member's mother's age at her birth. The association between childhood SEP and AFP is partially mediated by early-life conditions, and the association between early-life conditions and AFP is partially mediated by emotional and behavioural problems in childhood. The overall relationship between early-life adversities and AFP appears to be approximately additive.
Zangooei Dovom, Hossein; Shafahi, Yousef; Zangooei Dovom, Mehdi
2013-01-01
Several studies have investigated road traffic deaths, but few have compared by road user type. Iran, with an estimated 44 road traffic deaths per 100,000 population in 2002 had higher road traffic deaths than any other country for which reliable estimates can be made. So, the present study was conducted on road death data and identified fatal accident distribution by age, gender and head injury as well as the influences of age and gender on deaths at accident scenes for all road user groups. Data used in this study are on fatal road accidents recorded by forensic medicine experts of the Khorasan Razavi province in Mashhad, the capital of the province, the second largest city and the largest place of pilgrimage, immigration and tourism in Iran. Chi-square test and odds ratio were used to identify the relation of death place with age and gender in 2495 fatal road accidents from 2006 to 2009. The t-test and analysis of variance were employed for continues variable, age, to compare males' and females' mean age for all road user categories. For two genders, all three groups of fatalities (pedestrian, motorcyclist and motor vehicle occupant) had a peak at the ages of 21-30. The youngest were male motorcyclists (mean age = 28). Old pedestrians were included in road deaths very much, too. Male/female overall ratio was 3.41 and the highest male/female ratio was related to motorcyclists (14). The overall ratio of head injury to other organ injuries (torso and underbody) was 2.51 and pedestrians had the largest amount of head injury (38.2%). Regarding death at accident scene, for all road users, gender did not have any significant relation with death at the scene (P-value > 0.1); on the contrary, age had significant relation (P-value accident scenes (male/female ratio at accident sense motorcyclists 41-50 and motor vehicle occupants 31-40 died the most at accident scenes. Identifying the most endangered groups of road accident fatalities, which was conducted in this
Fatigue and Creep Crack Propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 in the Annealed and Aged Conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Julian K. Benz; Richard N. Wright
2013-10-01
The crack propagation behaviour of Alloy 617 was studied under various conditions. Elevated temperature fatigue and creep-fatigue crack growth experiments were conducted at 650 and 800 degrees C under constant stress intensity (triangle K) conditions and triangular or trapezoidal waveforms at various frequencies on as-received, aged, and carburized material. Environmental conditions included both laboratory air and characteristic VHTR impure helium. As-received Alloy 617 displayed an increase in the crack growth rate (da/dN) as the frequency was decreased in air which indicated a time-dependent contribution component in fatigue crack propagation. Material aged at 650°C did not display any influence on the fatigue crack growth rates nor the increasing trend of crack growth rate with decreasing frequency even though significant microstructural evolution, including y’ (Ni3Al) after short times, occurred during aging. In contrast, carburized Alloy 617 showed an increase in crack growth rates at all frequencies tested compared to the material in the standard annealed condition. Crack growth studies under quasi-constant K (i.e. creep) conditions were also completed at 650 degrees C and a stress intensity of K = 40 MPa9 (square root)m. The results indicate that crack growth is primarily intergranular and increased creep crack growth rates exist in the impure helium environment when compared to the results in laboratory air. Furthermore, the propagation rates (da/dt) continually increased for the duration of the creep crack growth either due to material aging or evolution of a crack tip creep zone. Finally, fatigue crack propagation tests at 800 degrees C on annealed Alloy 617 indicated that crack propagation rates were higher in air than impure helium at the largest frequencies and lowest stress intensities. The rates in helium, however, eventually surpass the rates in air as the frequency is reduced and the stress intensity is decreased which was not observed at 650
Woodruff-Pak, Diana S.; Seta, Susan E.; Roker, LaToya A.; Lehr, Melissa A.
2007-01-01
The aim of this study was to examine parameters affecting age differences in eyeblink classical conditioning in a large sample of young and middle-aged rabbits. A total of 122 rabbits of mean ages of 4 or 26 mo were tested at inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) of 600 or 750 msec in the delay or trace paradigms. Paradigm affected both age groups…
Bozhkov, A I; Kovaleva, M K; Menzianova, N G
2011-01-01
The characteristics of the cells epigenotypes Dunaliella viridis Teod. in the process of chronological and replicative aging were investigated. By 40th day of accumulative cultivation (which coincided with the stationary growth phase) DNA content in the cells of Dunaliella viridis increased 2 times, triacylglycerides 3 times, beta-carotene and carbonyl proteins 2 times, RNA content decreased in comparison with cells in exponential growth phase, i. e., the 40th day of growth of culture forms the age-related epigenotype. 4 received subcultures were being transplanted during 2 years in mid-logarithmic growth phase (subculture-10), early stationary phase of growth (subculture-20), in the mid-stationary growth phase (subculture-30), and late stationary growth phase (subculture-40). It is shown that epigenotype of subculture-10 remained unchanged over 2 years of cultivation, i. e., it does not manifest replicative aging. At the same time, the subculture-20, although long enough (at least 40 passages), maintained epigenotype characteristic of young cultures, and showed age-related changes. Pronounced age-dependent changes of epigenotype in the course of cultivation were identified for subculture-30, and subculture-40 was characterized by unstable epigenotype. Thus, cultivation conditions determine the intensity of replicative aging in Dunaliella viridis.
Yakovleva, E. Yu.; Shundrina, I. K.; Gerasimov, E. Yu.; Vaganova, T. A.
2014-03-01
Thermogravimetry, elemental analysis, low-temperature nitrogen adsorption, high-resolution electron microscopy, and gas chromatography are used to study the effect of the content of perfluorinated polyimide when used as a stationary phase for modifying Chromosorb P NAW diatomite supports and aluminum oxide, and the effect of thermal aging conditions on changes in their texture and chromatographic characteristics. It is shown that Chromosorb P NAW + 5 wt % of polyimide (PI) adsorbent thermally aged at 700°C in a flow of inert gas exhibits properties of carbon molecular sieves, while aluminum oxide impregnated with 10 wt % of PI and thermally aged at 250°C allows us to selectively separate permanent and organic gases, as well separate saturated and unsaturated hydrocarbons.
Wang, Ying-kang; Zhou, Meng-ran; Yang, Jie; Zhou, Pei-qiang; Xie, Ying
2017-01-01
In the fog and haze, the air contains large amounts of H2S, SO2, SO3 and other acids, air conductivity is greatly improved, the relative humidity is also greatly increased, Power transmission lines and electrical equipment in such an environment will increase in the long-running failure ratedecrease the sensitivity of the detection equipment, impact protection device reliability. Weibull distribution is widely used in component failure distribution fitting. It proposes a protection device aging failure rate estimation method based on the least squares method and the iterative method,.Combined with a regional power grid statistics, computing protective equipment failure rate function. Binding characteristics of electrical equipment operation status under haze conditions, optimization methods, get more in line with aging protection equipment failure under conditions of haze characteristics.
Ageing of solid-state protein films: Behavior of azurin at ambient conditions
Pompa, P. P.; Bramanti, A.; Maruccio, G.; Mercato, L. L. del; Cingolani, R.; Rinaldi, R.
2005-03-01
We report on the folding properties of the protein azurin, deposited onto SiO 2 surfaces and subsequently dehydrated. The molecular films have been maintained at ambient conditions through several days, and the ageing effects have been investigated by fluorescence spectroscopy. The experimental results show a modest initial conformational rearrangement, followed by long-term stability. Interestingly, upon rehydration of the biomolecular films at the end of the investigated period (approximately one month), azurin returns to exhibit a native-like conformation. This study indicates a rather surprising resilience of proteins to ambient conditions and sheds a somewhat unexpected positive light on reliability in biomolecular electronics.
Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging
Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, Youngjin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae
2015-01-01
In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited b...
A Numerical Model for the Thermomechanical Conditions During Hydration of Early-age Concrete
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hattel, Jesper; Thorborg, Jesper
2003-01-01
In the present study, a macroscopic numerical model for the thermomechanical conditions during hydration of early-age concrete is presented. The formulation is based on a semi-coupled, incremental thermomechanical model where the heat production from the hydration process is expressed in terms of...... analytical solutions are carried out as well as examples of analysis of real concrete structures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved....
Furfuryl ethyl ether: important aging flavor and a new marker for the storage conditions of beer.
Vanderhaegen, Bart; Neven, Hedwig; Daenen, Luk; Verstrepen, Kevin J; Verachtert, Hubert; Derdelinckx, Guy
2004-03-24
Recently, it was reported that furfuryl ethyl ether is an important flavor compound indicative of beer storage and aging conditions. A study of the reaction mechanism indicates that furfuryl ethyl ether is most likely formed by protonation of furfuryl alcohol or furfuryl acetate followed by S(N)2-substitution of the leaving group by the nucleophilic ethanol. For the reaction in beer, a pseudo-first-order reaction kinetics was derived. A close correlation was found between the values predicted by the kinetic model and the actual furfuryl ethyl ether concentration evolution during storage of beer. Furthermore, 10 commercial beers of different types, aged during 4 years in natural conditions, were analyzed, and it was found that the furfuryl ethyl ether flavor threshold was largely exceeded in each type of beer. In these natural aging conditions, lower pH, darker color, and higher alcohol content were factors that enhanced furfuryl ethyl ether formation. On the other hand, sulfite clearly reduced furfuryl ethyl ether formation. All results show that the furfuryl ethyl ether concentration is an excellent time-temperature integrator for beer storage.
RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
吕恩琳; 钟佑明
2003-01-01
Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.
基于条件概率的短时睡眠状态实时估计%Sleep level estimation based on conditional probability for nap
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
王蓓; 张俊民; 张涛; 王行愚
2015-01-01
目的：根据脑电信号的特征，提出基于条件概率的睡眠状态实时估计方法，为睡眠监测提供反映睡眠状态连续变化的客观评价依据。方法在白天短时睡眠过程中，同步采集了4导与睡眠相关的脑电信号（ C3-A2，C4-A1，O1-A2，O2-A1），对每5秒记录数据进行傅里叶变换，分别计算了8~13 Hz和2~7 Hz 的脑电节律能量占空比特征参数。主要方法包含了学习和测试两个阶段：在学习阶段，根据训练数据获得脑电特征参数的概率密度分布；在测试阶段，根据当前特征，得到各睡眠分期的条件概率，并计算获得睡眠状态的估计值。结果分析和测试了12名受试者的短时睡眠数据。通过与睡眠分期的人工判读结果相比较，睡眠状态估计值呈现了睡眠深度的连续变化。觉醒期的显著性差异为2.94，睡眠一期和二期分别为1.78和1.62，分析结果符合实际规律。结论本文所定义的睡眠状态估计值蕴含了睡眠分期的特征，较好地反映了睡眠阶段在持续和过渡期间的连续变化过程，能够为白天短时睡眠状态分析提供实时监测和分析的客观评价依据。%Objective According to the characteristics of electroencephalograph( EEG),an automatic sleep level estimation method based on conditional probability is developed. The ultimate purpose is to obtain and realize the real-time sleep level evaluation. Methods There are 4 EEG channels(O2 -A1 ,O1 -A2 ,C4 -A1 , C3 -A2 )recorded during nap. For every 5-second data,two characteristic parameters of ratio of EEG rhythms (8-13 Hz,2-7 Hz)are calculated after fast Fourier transformation(FFT). The main method consists of two models:learning and testing. During the learning stage,the probability density functions of EEG parameters are obtained based on the training data. During the testing stage,the sleep level is estimated based on the conditional probability of sleep stages. Results The
Linear Positivity and Virtual Probability
Hartle, J B
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. A quantum theory of closed systems requires two elements; 1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory, and 2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time-neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to i...
Conditions of life and climacteric in middle aged women in a health area of Sancti Spiritus.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvia Esther de la Torre Cárdenas
2012-09-01
Full Text Available A climacteric is one of the difficult steps in women life in which a particular attention is needed by the doctor and a big comprehension from the social point of view. A retrospective descriptive study was made in the South Area Polyclinic of Sancti Spiritus Municipality, period january – april 2007, with a female population having between 45 -59 years of age from 8 family medical clinics, 4 belonging to the urban area and 4 to the rural one (191 in total, including all which referred to present any disorder with the menstrual cycle due to excess or defect in the 6 months previous to interview (165 in total with the objective to evaluate the relation between conditions of life and the frequency; criticality and morbidity associated with menopause syndrome. Life conditions, kind of work, kind of activity carried out and associated pathologies are the factors that according to the study influence in frequency, criticality and morbidity associated with menopause syndrome in middle aged women and the overhead given by the conditioning of gender, favored the appearance of symptoms such as hot, depression, anxiety, tachycardia and vaginal dryness.
Compared Ageing of Oil from Curcubitea Pepo in Two Different Storage Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.H.W. Nakavoua
2011-04-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the oil pumkin seeds of Curcubitea pepo from Congo- Brazzaville. The ageing of oil extracted from the seeds of the pumpkin Curcubitea pepo stored at two temperatures (6 and 30ºC was monitored during storage for 11 months by comparison of physical and chemical characteristics correlated with spectroscopic data. Medium infrared spectroscopy confirmed saponification index data. Ultraviolet absorption confirmed peroxide index data. Antioxidant behaviour was monitored by fluorescence and the effect of ageing on the two major fatty acid families was analysed by a study of chemical composition correlated with differential scanning calorimetry measurements. This study showed an overall lengthening of the fatty acid carbon chains and allowed preferential storage conditions to be specified for this oil.
2017-01-01
Adverse socioeconomic conditions in childhood have been previously linked with high risk of various health conditions. However, the association with future physical function has been less studied. Hand grip strength and chair-rising time are objective measures of physical capability indicating current and future health outcomes. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that perceived socio-economic status in childhood is related to current measures of physical function, among Israeli participants of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe project. The study included 2300 participants aged 50 years or older (mean age 68 ± 10; 56 % women). Generalized linear regression models were used to examine the associations of childhood wealth and number of books in residence with grip strength and time to complete five rises from a chair. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relationships between the early life conditions and the ability to perform the physical tests. Adjustment was made for current income or household wealth, and for demographic, anthropometric, health, and life-style measures. Being wealthy and having a large number of books at home in childhood was associated with a stronger hand grip and a better chair-rise test performance. These associations were more robust in women compared to men, and persisted after adjustment for potential covariates. In addition, childhood wealth and number of books were associated with lower risk of being unable to perform the tests. Thus, early-life programming may contribute to physical function indicators in mid- and late-life.
Resveratrol in prevention and treatment of common clinical conditions of aging.
Markus, M Andrea; Morris, Brian J
2008-01-01
Resveratrol is a potent member of the class of natural, plant-derived chemicals known as polyphenols. These help explain in part why a diet high in fruit and vegetables confers health benefits and are associated with reduced risk of common complex conditions such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease. We present the latest molecular findings that account for the beneficial actions of resveratrol. The intracellular pathways activated are crucial for anti-oxidant defence, regulation of the cell cycle, mitochondrial energy production, vascular tone, oncogene suppression, and many other phenomena which if unchecked lead to morbidity and mortality from onset and progression of these various diseases. While a healthy diet and lifestyle is strongly recommended in prevention of such conditions, the future bodes well for the use of resveratrol and analogues of higher potency than the natural form for treatment of diseases that afflict humans, particularly as they age.
Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging
Pöschke, Patrick; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A; Zaks, Michael A
2016-01-01
We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples for subdiffusive tracer's motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer's motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We have performed extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions, and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e. at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell, and is absent in classical models based on continuous time random walks (CTRW) with no dynamics in the trapped state.
Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging
Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.; Zaks, Michael A.
2016-09-01
We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples of subdiffusive tracer motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We perform extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e., at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties, which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell and is absent in classical models based on continuous-time random walks with no dynamics in the trapped state.
Extraction conditions of white rose petals for the inhibition of enzymes related to skin aging.
Choi, Ehn-Kyoung; Guo, Haiyu; Choi, Jae-Kwon; Jang, Su-Kil; Shin, Kyungha; Cha, Ye-Seul; Choi, Youngjin; Seo, Da-Woom; Lee, Yoon-Bok; Joo, Seong-So; Kim, Yun-Bae
2015-09-01
In order to assess inhibitory potentials of white rose petal extracts (WRPE) on the activities of enzymes related to dermal aging according to the extraction conditions, three extraction methods were adopted. WRPE was prepared by extracting dried white rose (Rosa hybrida) petals with 50% ethanol (WRPE-EtOH), Pectinex® SMASH XXL enzyme (WRPE-enzyme) or high temperature-high pressure (WRPE-HTHP). In the inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-1, although the enzyme activity was fully inhibited by all 3 extracts at 100 µg/mL in 60 min, partial inhibition (50-70%) was achieved only by WRPE-EtOH and WRPE-enzyme at 50 µg/mL. High concentrations (≥250 µg/mL) of all 3 extracts markedly inhibited the elastase activity. However, at low concentrations (15.6-125 µg/mL), only WRPE-EtOH inhibited the enzyme activity. Notably, WRPE-EtOH was superior to WRPE-enzyme and WRPE-HTHP in the inhibition of tyrosinase. WRPE-EtOH significantly inhibited the enzyme activity from 31.2 µM, reaching 80% inhibition at 125 µM. In addition to its strong antioxidative activity, the ethanol extract of white rose petals was confirmed to be effective in inhibiting skin aging-related enzymes. Therefore, it is suggested that WRPE-EtOH could be a good candidate for the improvement of skin aging such as wrinkle formation and pigmentation.
Diet and weaning age affect the growth and condition of Dover sole (Solea solea L.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2005-01-01
Full Text Available The effect of diet type (frozen Artemia biomass and two inert diets: micro-bound [MB] and micro-extruded [ME] and two weaning ages (early weaning and late weaning, 50 and 64 days after hatching, respectively were studied in Solea solea larvae. The experiment lasted 56 and 42 days for early and late weaning, respectively. The mortality results showed the highest values for late weaning (39% in the Artemia treatment. No significant differences in mortality were observed between the inert diets. The final dry weight values were higher for late weaning than for early weaning. At both weaning ages, fish receiving the same treatments had similar tendencies for dry weight and standard length. Fish fed with MB presented significantly higher dry weight and standard length, followed by ME, while the lowest values at both weaning ages were recorded for the Artemia treatment. Similar amounts of highly unsaturated fatty acid fractions among the inert diets were reflected by the absence of significant differences in the susceptibility to oxidation (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances testing; however, significant differences were found in carbohydrate, protein and lipid contents of whole-body homogenates for both early and late weaning. At the end of the experiment no significant differences in biochemical contents were observed between the two inert diets. The results of this study suggest that weaning starting on day 50 (early weaning, using a good quality inert diet, leads to higher survival, growth and fish condition.
Ferguson, Sarah Hargus
2005-09-01
It is well known that, for listeners with normal hearing, speech produced by non-native speakers of the listener's first language is less intelligible than speech produced by native speakers. Intelligibility is well correlated with listener's ratings of talker comprehensibility and accentedness, which have been shown to be related to several talker factors, including age of second language acquisition and level of similarity between the talker's native and second language phoneme inventories. Relatively few studies have focused on factors extrinsic to the talker. The current project explored the effects of listener and environmental factors on the intelligibility of foreign-accented speech. Specifically, monosyllabic English words previously recorded from two talkers, one a native speaker of American English and the other a native speaker of Spanish, were presented to three groups of listeners (young listeners with normal hearing, elderly listeners with normal hearing, and elderly listeners with hearing impairment; n=20 each) in three different listening conditions (undistorted words in quiet, undistorted words in 12-talker babble, and filtered words in quiet). Data analysis will focus on interactions between talker accent, listener age, listener hearing status, and listening condition. [Project supported by American Speech-Language-Hearing Association AARC Award.
Resveratrol in prevention and treatment of common clinical conditions of aging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M Andrea Markus
2008-06-01
Full Text Available M Andrea Markus, Brian J MorrisSchool of Medical Sciences and Bosch Institute, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaAbstract: Resveratrol is a potent member of the class of natural, plant-derived chemicals known as polyphenols. These help explain in part why a diet high in fruit and vegetables confers health benefits and are associated with reduced risk of common complex conditions such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s disease. We present the latest molecular findings that account for the beneficial actions of resveratrol. The intracellular pathways activated are crucial for anti-oxidant defence, regulation of the cell cycle, mitochondrial energy production, vascular tone, oncogene suppression, and many other phenomena which if unchecked lead to morbidity and mortality from onset and progression of these various diseases. While a healthy diet and lifestyle is strongly recommended in prevention of such conditions, the future bodes well for the use of resveratrol and analogues of higher potency than the natural form for treatment of diseases that afflict humans, particularly as they age.Keywords: resveratrol, longevity, SIRT, wine, aging, cancer
Gebara, Elias; Sultan, Sebastien; Kocher-Braissant, Jacqueline; Toni, Nicolas
2013-01-01
Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus (DG) and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the DG was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elias Georges Gebara
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the dentate gyrus was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.
Nutritional condition of school age children. Clinic, anthropo-medical and alimentary assessment
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Alina Esther González Hermida
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Background: the study of children´s growth in an appropriate indicator of children health condition and should be used as one of the basis in the practice of preventive medicine. Objective: to determine the nutritional al condition of children of third and sixth grade of elementary schools of Health Area V of Cienfuegos Municipality. Methods: descriptive, observational, cross-sectional and relational study of 445 school age children from 4 elementary schools. A clinic assessment was carried out along with an anthropo-medical evaluation. A qualitative survey was developed to assess the frequency of consumption of different alimentary groups. Results: the relation weight/height in the two genders presents a prevalence of normal weight; undernourishment is more common among females, overweight is more usual among boys and obesity can be found in both genders. The variable weight/age showed one bad-nutrition (for defect among females, there was a prevalence of bad-nutrition for excess in both genders. There were no children with height under the third percentile, with prevalence of boys and girls tall and very tall. Bronchial asthma was the most common disease. Conclusions: Food consumption in general, taking into account frequency and kind of food, is not the appropriate. There is a relation between positive clinical findings and the anthropometric assessment of weight/height.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duckworth, Robert C [ORNL; Aytug, Tolga [ORNL; Paranthaman, Mariappan Parans [ORNL; Kidder, Michelle [ORNL; Polyzos, Georgios [ORNL; Leonard, Keith J [ORNL
2015-01-01
Cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) nanocomposites have been developed in an effort to improve cable insulation lifetime to serve in both instrument cables and auxiliary power systems in advanced reactor applications as well as to provide an alternative for new or retro-fit cable insulation installations. Nano-dielectrics composed of different weight percentages of MgO & SiO_{2} have been subjected to radiation at accumulated doses approaching 20 MRad and thermal aging temperatures exceeding 100 C. Depending on the composition, the performance of the nanodielectric insulation was influenced, both positively and negatively, when quantified with respect to its electrical and mechanical properties. For virgin unradiated or thermally aged samples, XLPE nanocomposites with 1wt.% SiO_{2} showed improvement in breakdown strength and reduction in its dissipation factor when compared to pure undoped XLPE, while XLPE 3wt.% SiO_{2} resulted in lower breakdown strength. When aged in air at 120 C, retention of electrical breakdown strength and dissipation factor was observed for XLPE 3wt.% MgO nanocomposites. Irrespective of the nanoparticle species, XLPE nanocomposites that were gamma irradiated up to the accumulated dose of 18 MRad showed a significant drop in breakdown strength especially for particle concentrations greater than 3 wt.%. Additional attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy measurements suggest changes in the structure of the XLPE SiO_{2} nanocomposites associated with the interaction of silicon and oxygen. Discussion on the relevance of property changes with respect to cable aging and condition monitoring is presented.
Aerobic capacity in wild satin bowerbirds: repeatability and effects of age, sex and condition.
Chappell, Mark A; Savard, Jean-Francois; Siani, Jennifer; Coleman, Seth W; Keagy, Jason; Borgia, Gerald
2011-10-01
Individual variation in aerobic capacity has been extensively studied, especially with respect to condition, maturity or pathogen infection, and to gain insights into mechanistic foundations of performance. However, its relationship to mate competition is less well understood, particularly for animals in natural habitats. We examined aerobic capacity [maximum rate of O2 consumption (VO2,max) in forced exercise] in wild satin bowerbirds, an Australian passerine with a non-resource based mating system and strong intermale sexual competition. We tested for repeatability of mass and VO2,max, differences among age and sex classes, and effects of several condition indices. In adult males, we examined interactions between aerobic performance and bower ownership (required for male mating success). There was significant repeatability of mass and VO2,max within and between years, but between-year repeatability was lower than within-year repeatability. VO2,max varied with an overall scaling to mass(0.791), but most variance in VO2,max was not explained by mass. Indicators of condition (tarsus and wing length asymmetry, the ratio of tarsus length to mass) were not correlated to VO2,max. Ectoparasite counts were weakly correlated to VO2,max across all age-sex classes but not within any class. Adult males, the cohort with the most intense levels of mating competition, had higher VO2,max than juvenile birds or adult females. However, there was no difference between the VO2,max of bower-owning males and that of males not known to hold bowers. Thus one major factor determining male reproductive success was not correlated to aerobic performance.
Characteristics of Adults with Down Syndrome: prevalence of age-related conditions
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Angelo eCarfì
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Introduction. In the last decades, life expectancy of persons with Down syndrome (DS has dramatically increased and it is estimated that they will be living as long as the general population within a generation. Despite being included among the progeroid syndromes, because of the presence of features typically observed in older adults, DS is still regarded as a disease of pediatric interest. Because limited knowledge is available on the clinical characteristics of adults with DS, this study aimed to assess clinical and non-clinical features of this population and to describe similarities to the geriatric population. Methods. In this study, we described 60 adults with DS evaluated at the Day Hospital of the Geriatric Department of the Policlinico A. Gemelli, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Rome. Individuals were assessed through a standardized protocol. Results. The mean age of study participants was 38 years (range, 18 to 58 years and 42 (70.0% were women. Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent: severe cognitive impairment was diagnosed in 39 (65.0% participants, behavioral symptoms were present in 25 (41.7% and functional impairment in 23 (38.3%. Six (10.0% participants lived in institutions and 11 (18.3% were diagnosed as obese. The mean number of drugs used was 2.4; use of psychotropic drugs was highly prevalent. The most common chronic diseases were thyroid problems (44, 73.3%, followed by mood disorders (19, 31.7%, osteoporosis (18, 30.0% and cardiac problems (10, 16.7%. Geriatric conditions and chronic diseases were more prevalent among participants aged ≥40 years. Conclusions. Several similarities between older adults and adults with DS were observed. Comorbidities, geriatric conditions, cognitive and functional deficits and social problems are highly prevalent in both populations, contributing to the high complexity of these patients’ assessment and treatment.
Hidden Variables or Positive Probabilities?
Rothman, T; Rothman, Tony
2001-01-01
Despite claims that Bell's inequalities are based on the Einstein locality condition, or equivalent, all derivations make an identical mathematical assumption: that local hidden-variable theories produce a set of positive-definite probabilities for detecting a particle with a given spin orientation. The standard argument is that because quantum mechanics assumes that particles are emitted in a superposition of states the theory cannot produce such a set of probabilities. We examine a paper by Eberhard who claims to show that a generalized Bell inequality, the CHSH inequality, can be derived solely on the basis of the locality condition, without recourse to hidden variables. We point out that he nonetheless assumes a set of positive-definite probabilities, which supports the claim that hidden variables or "locality" is not at issue here, positive-definite probabilities are. We demonstrate that quantum mechanics does predict a set of probabilities that violate the CHSH inequality; however these probabilities ar...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oldenburg, Eric W.; Guy, Christopher S.; Cureton, Eli S.; Webb, Molly H.; Gardner, William M.
2011-03-28
A propagation program for pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the upper Missouri River was implemented by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1997. Preliminary research indicated that many hatchery-reared pallid sturgeon were experiencing significant downstream poststocking dispersal, negatively affecting their recruitment. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of acclimation to flow and site-specific physicochemical water conditions on poststocking dispersal and physiological condition of age-1 pallid sturgeon. Fish from three acclimation treatments were radio-tagged, released at two locations (Missouri River and Marias River), and monitored using passive telemetry stations. Marias treatment was acclimated to flow and site-specific physicochemical conditions, Bozeman treatment was acclimated to flow only, and traditional treatment had no acclimation (reared under traditional protocol). During both years fish released in the Missouri River dispersed less than fish released in the Marias River. In 2005, Marias treatment dispersed less and nearly twice as many fish remained in the Missouri River reach than traditional treatment. In 2006, pallid sturgeon dispersed similarly among treatments and fish remaining in the Missouri River reach were similar among all treatments. Differences in poststocking dispersal between years may be related to fin curl. Fin curl was present in all fish in 2005 and 27% of the fish in 2006. Pallid sturgeon from all treatments in both years had a greater affinity for the lower reaches of the Missouri River than the upper reaches. Thus, habitat at release site influenced poststocking dispersal more than acclimation treatment. No difference was observed in relative growth rate among treatments in 2006. However, acclimation to flow (i.e., exercise conditioning) may reduce liver fat content. Acclimation conditions used in this study may not benefit pallid sturgeon unless physiological maladies are present
Zytoon, Mohamed A; Basahel, Abdulrahman M
2017-02-24
Although marine fishing is one of the most hazardous occupations, research on the occupational safety and health (OSH) conditions aboard marine fishing vessels is scarce. For instance, little is known about the working conditions of vulnerable groups such as young and aging fishermen. The objective of the current paper is to study the OSH conditions of young and aging fishermen compared to middle-aged fishermen in the small- and medium-size (SM) marine fishing sector. A cross-sectional study was designed, and 686 fishermen working aboard SM fishing vessels were interviewed to collect information about their safety and health. The associations of physical and psychosocial work conditions with safety and health outcomes, e.g., injuries, illnesses and job satisfaction, are presented. The results of the current study can be utilized in the design of effective accident prevention and OSH training programs for the three age groups and in the regulation of working conditions aboard fishing vessels.
Peng, Xiaoguang; McKenna, Gregory B.
2016-04-01
Three important kinetic phenomena have been cataloged by Kovacs in the investigation of molecular glasses during structural recovery or physical aging. These are responses to temperature-jump histories referred to as intrinsic isotherms, asymmetry of approach, and memory effect. Here we use a thermosensitive polystyrene-poly (N -isopropylacrylamide)-poly (acrylic acid) core-shell particle-based dispersion as a colloidal model and by working at a constant number concentration of particles we use temperature changes to create volume-fraction changes. This imposes conditions similar to those defined by Kovacs on the colloidal system. We use creep experiments to probe the physical aging and structural recovery behavior of colloidal glasses in the Kovacs-type histories and compare the results with those seen in molecular glasses. We find that there are similarities in aging dynamics between molecular glasses and colloidal glasses, but differences also persist. For the intrinsic isotherms, the times teq needed for relaxing or evolving into the equilibrium (or stationary) state are relatively insensitive to the volume fraction and the values of teq are longer than the α -relaxation time τα at the same volume fraction. On the other hand, both of these times grow at least exponentially with decreasing temperature in molecular glasses. For the asymmetry of approach, similar nonlinear behavior is observed for both colloidal and molecular glasses. However, the equilibration time teq is the same for both volume-fraction up-jump and down-jump experiments, different from the finding in molecular glasses that it takes longer for the structure to evolve into equilibrium for the temperature up-jump condition than for the temperature down-jump condition. For the two-step volume-fraction jumps, a memory response is observed that is different from observations of structural recovery in two-step temperature histories in molecular glasses. The concentration dependence of the dynamics
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
王宗润; 汪武超; 王小丁; 周艳菊
2012-01-01
本文构建了基于条件概率积分变换的Copula函数选择方法,通过对条件概率积分变换下Anderson-Darling( AD)、Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)、Cramér-von Mises (CM)这三种统计量的比较,讨论在不同样本容量和变量维数下其对多种Copula函数的拟合效果.利用GSPTSE、INMEX.MX和NDX三大股指样本,将基于条件概率积分变换的Copula函数选择方法与核密度估计和极大似然估计选择法的效果进行系统比较.结果表明,基于条件概率积分变换的检验法可以有效解决多元Copula函数的选择问题,其拟舍优度检验更精确、更稳定；核密度估计检验在大样本下比较稳定,而小样本下稳定性较差；相比之下,极大似然值检验法则不稳定.%The dependence structure among multivariate financial assets is a critical factor for achieving accuracy in the integrated risk measurement. Copula function is a very useful tool to describe the dependence structure between risk factors and plays an important role in the field of financial risk management. When using the Copula model, the most important thing is to judge which Copula is more suitable to describe the data dependence structure. Therefore, it is very important to do research on the selection criteria of multivariate Copula models and the goodness-of-fit test methods. However, in the field of financial risk management, most of the research has focused on bivariate cases. There is very little research on the goodness-of-fit and empirical analysis on the multivariate cases. There is still no effective solutions for the selection and goodness-of-fit test of multivariate Copula functions. Therefore, this paper proposes a selection criterion for Copula's goodness-of-fit based on the method of conditional probability integral transformation. We analyze and compare the Anderson-Darling ( AD) , Kolmogorov-Smirnov ( KS) and Cram6r-von Mises (CM) test statistics under the CPIT method with various sample sizes and
EMPLOYMENT AND WORKING CONDITIONS OF THE UKRAINIAN WORKING-AGE POPULATION
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mazhak, Iryna
2017-01-01
According to the research carried out by the Sociological Group "Rating" in December 2016, 60% of the respondents were employed, 40% - unemployed. Among the unemployed, one-third (32%) – pensioners, 27% – housekeeping and childcare, 13% – students, 21% – unemployed and looking for work, 6......% - unemployed and not looking for work. When analyzing their working conditions, the majority of the employed respondents mentioned, on the one hand, an absence of vibration, noise, air pollution, minor physical effort, and on the other, comfortable lighting and temperature. Along with that, almost half....... 88% of the respondents were hired workers, 12% – self-employed (businessmen, family business etc.). Higher rate of self-employment was recorded among married individuals, the middle-aged group, and respondents with high income. The majority (89%) of the respondents worked full time, 11% – part time...
Quantitative Analysis of Ageing Condition of Insulating Paper Using Infrared Spectroscopy
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R. Saldivar-Guerrero
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Transformers are very expensive apparatuses and are vital to make the whole power system run normally. The failures in such apparatuses could leave them out of service, causing severe economic losses. The life of a transformer can be effectively determined by the life of the insulating paper. In the present work, we show an alternative diagnostic technique to determine the ageing condition of transformer paper by the use of FTIR spectroscopy and an empirical model. This method has the advantage of using a microsample that could be extracted from the transformer on-site. The proposed technique offers an approximation quantitative evaluation of the degree of polymerization of dielectric papers and could be used for transformer diagnosis and remaining life estimation.
A graduate course in probability
Tucker, Howard G
2014-01-01
Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.
Arsenate adsorption onto hematite nanoparticles under alkaline conditions: effects of aging
Das, Soumya; Essilfie-Dughan, Joseph; Hendry, M. Jim
2014-07-01
Arsenate adsorption onto freshly synthesized hematite nanoparticles was carried out under highly alkaline conditions ( pH 10) at room temperature (21 °C). Dynamic light scattering measurements of hydrated hematite colloids ranged from 43 to 106 nm ( 96 %). The measured zeta potential was 28.1 mV (±5.85) suggesting that the hematite nanoparticles were moderately stable. X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy data showed that hematite was stable under the conditions tested, with no crystal modification evident at the completion of the experiment (9 days). An additional band position at 826 cm-1 in the Raman spectra represented arsenate adsorbed onto hematite. The pH of the slurry dropped from 10 to 8 during the experiment; this was coincident with a drop in the aqueous concentration of arsenic (from 121 to 92 mg/L) as determined via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). ICP-MS analyses on the solid samples indicated a significant amount of arsenic partitioned to the solid phase during aging, corroborating the results of aqueous analyses. X-ray absorption spectroscopic analyses revealed that the bonding environment remained the same irrespective of the pH and the amount of arsenate adsorbed. Arsenate adsorbed onto hematite through a strong inner-sphere bidentate-mononuclear complex both before (0 days) and after (9 days) aging. These results are valuable for understanding the fate of potential contaminants in alkaline mine tailings environments where 2-line ferrihydrite frequently transforms to hematite rather than goethite.
Does the gestation age of newborn babies influence the ultrasonic assessment of hip condition?
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Simić Slavica
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction. Ultrasound represents a method of examination of hips of newborn babies capable of defining hip condition and distinguishing stable and unstable hips based on morphological elements. It is accepted in a large number of countries as a method of examination of high risk newborns, or as a method of systematic screening. Objective. The objective of this study was to investigate correlation between ultrasonically estimated hip maturity and respective gestation maturity both in premature and term-born babies, and to investigate the influence of different delivery types on hips condition. Methods. In our study 2045 patients, 1141 males and 904 females, were examined in at the Institute of Neonatology over a period of 5 years. The average age was 34.04 gestation weeks. There were significantly more premature (1698 or 83.03% than term-born babies (347 or 16.97%. Ultrasound hip examination, as a screening method, was carried out according to Graf. It was followed by clinical examination. Results were analyzed by appropriate statistical methods (χ2-test, one-way ANOVA, multifactor ANOVA. Results. The overall frequency of unstable hips was 3.2%, 1.88% in males and 4.87% in females (p<0.05. 96.8% babies had stable hips, out of which 35.21% were mature and 61.59% immature. In the study of the breech presentation, out of 183 babies, unstable hips were found in 1.58% of male cases, and in 10.23% of female cases. Conclusion. Clinical screening of developmental dysplasia of the hip is insufficient for early diagnosis and decision about the treatment of premature babies. The high frequency of unstable hip type IIc (risky and IId (decentralized in premature babies requires early diagnosis and therapy. Wide swaddling for prematures should be applied up to eight months of age. Gentle manipulation is necessary while nursing and conducting physiotherapy of a premature baby.
Gingival Condition in Children Aged From 6 to 12 Years Old: Clinical and Microbiological Aspects
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Ane Stella Salgado XAVIER
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the gingival condition and the occurrence of periodontopathogens in 93 children aged from 6 to 12 years old in Araçatuba, Brazil. Method: Clinical examination was performed in accordance to Schour and Massler (1947 while the subgingival plaque samples were obtained though sterilized paper point that were placed into health and inflamed gingival crevice of tooth 54 or 14, 61 or 11, 26, 75 or 35, 82 or 42 and 46, where they were kept for 60 seconds and tranferred to tubes containing 5 ml of thioglicolate broth. Microorganisms were isolated on blood agar and CVE an agar after incubation under anaerobiosis, at 37ºC, for 10 days. The identification of the isolates was based on their morphological, cellular and biochemical features. Results: 91.40% shows gingivitis while 70.97% presented mild gingivitis. Only 8.6% didn’t presented gingivitis. It was verified that the most of children presented mild gengivitis and was had some periodontopathogens. Conclusion: The gingivitis deteriored with age and only F. nucleatum was related with the deterioration of gengival status.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irena Rapčan
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Influence of weather conditions and seed age on fresh and dry biomass production, field germination, seed yield and 1000 seed weight of field pea were investigated in field trials during two years at two locations of East Croatia (Osijek and Vinkovci. Seed of „Timo“ cultivar 9 and 21 month old was used for sowing. In the investigation of the years influence, significantly higher (p=0.01 average green mass yield (57,035 t/ha, dry matter yield (9.796 t/ha and 1000 seed weight (129.7 g was found in the first year of the investigation. On the average for years, significantly higher field germination (87.0% and seed yield (2.173 t/ha at p=0.01, and green mass yield (55.728 t/ha and 1000 seed weight (130.1 g at p=0.05 were found at location Osijek. Seed of 21 month old had higher (p=0.01 average green mass yield (64.376 t/ha, dry matter yield (10.934 t/ha and 1000 seed weight (134 g but significantly lower field germination (76.4% at location Vinkovci in the investigation of seed age and location influences during 2005 year..
Superpositions of probability distributions.
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=sigma;{2} play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Superpositions of probability distributions
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Aging of magnesium stearate under high doses gamma irradiation and oxidative conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lebeau, D.; Beuvier, L.; Cornaton, M. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SECR, LRMO, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Miserque, F. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SCCME, LECA, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Tabarant, M. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SEARS, LISL, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Esnouf, S. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SECR, LRMO, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Ferry, M., E-mail: muriel.ferry@cea.fr [CEA, DEN, DPC, SECR, LRMO, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
2015-05-15
Highlights: • Magnesium stearate was radio-oxidized at very high doses using gamma-rays. • H{sub 2} emission was estimated as a function of the integrated dose. • Modifications in the organic solid were followed as a function of the integrated dose. • A non-exhaustive degradation mechanism of magnesium stearate was proposed. - Abstract: In nuclear waste packages conditioning processes, magnesium stearate is widely used because of its high lubricating properties. For safety purposes, the radiolytic degradation of these organic materials has to be better understood to be able to predict their aging in repository conditions. This study reports the radiolytic degradation of magnesium stearate, using gamma-rays at room temperature and under air. Modifications were followed using different analytical tools (XPS, ATR-FTIR, ICP-AES, ATG and mass spectrometry). It has been observed that molecules mainly formed up to 1000 kGy of gamma irradiation dose under radio-oxidation are alkanes, hydroperoxides, double bonds in the aliphatic chain, carboxylates with aliphatic chain shorter than the one of stearate and ketones. At a dose of 4000 kGy, dicarboxylic acids are observed: the formation of these molecules needs a dose of at least 1000 kGy to be created under radio-oxidation. These observations allow us to propose a non-exhaustive degradation mechanism of magnesium stearate under gamma-irradiation at room temperature and under air.
Age-Ratios and Condition of En Route Migrant Blackpoll Warblers in the British Virgin Islands
Boal, Clint W.
2014-01-01
The en route migration ecology of Blackpoll Warblers (Setophaga striata) is poorly understood, yet intriguing. Blackpoll Warblers undertake the longest open water migration of any wood warbler species, traveling from northeastern North America to South America, with the first potential landfall being the West Indies. This migration requires substantial energy reserves and subjects Blackpoll Warblers to unpredictable weather events, which may influence survival. Few studies have examined age ratios or condition of Blackpoll Warblers while the warblers are en route through the Caribbean region. I captured and banded Blackpoll Warblers in the British Virgin Islands over 10 consecutive autumn migrations. Ratios of hatch-year to adult Blackpoll Warblers were variable but averaged lower than the ratios reported at continental departure locations. Average mass of Blackpoll Warblers was less than that reported at continental departure locations, with 26% of adults and 40% of hatch-year birds below the estimated fat free mass; hatch-year birds were consistently in poorer condition than adults. Blackpoll Warblers captured in the British Virgin Islands were also in poorer condition than those reported from the Dominican Republic and Barbados; this may be because of the British Virgin Islands being the first landfall after the transatlantic crossing, whereas Blackpoll Warblers arriving at the other Caribbean study locations may have had opportunities for stopover prior to arrival or have departed from farther south on the continent. However, this suggests that the British Virgin Islands likely provide important stopover habitat as a first landfall location for Blackpoll Warblers arriving from the transatlantic migration route.
Lukina, E. A.; Alekseev, A. A.; Antipov, V. V.; Zaitsev, D. V.; Klochkova, Yu. Yu.
2009-12-01
To describe the changes in the phase composition of alloys during aging, it is convenient to construct TTT diagrams on the temperature-aging time coordinates in which time-temperature regions of the existence of nonequilibrium phases that form during aging are indicated. As a rule, in constructing the diagrams of phase transformations during aging (DPTA), time-temperature maps of properties are plotted. A comparison of the diagrams with maps of properties allows one to analyze the effect of the structure on the properties. In this study, we analyze the DPTAs of V1469 (Al-1.2 Li-0.46 Ag-3.4 Cu-0.66 Mg) and 1441 (Al-1.8 Li-1.1 Mg-1.6 Cu, C Mg/ C Cu ≈ 1) alloys. Examples of the application of DPTA for the development of steplike aging conditions are reported.
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Lin, Jin-Ding; Lin, Lan-Ping; Hsu, Shang-Wei; Chen, Wen-Xiu; Lin, Fu-Gong; Wu, Jia-Ling; Chu, Cordia
2014-11-13
This study aims to answer the research question of "Are early onset aging conditions correlated to daily activity functions in youth and adults with Down syndrome (DS)?" A cross-sectional survey was employed to recruit 216 individuals with DS over 15 years of age in the analyses. A structured questionnaire included demographic data, brief self-reported aging conditions, Dementia Screening Questionnaire for Individuals with Intellectual Disabilities (DSQIID) and activity of daily living (ADL) scales were completed by the primary caregivers who were well-suited for providing information on the functioning conditions of the DS individuals. Results showed that the most five frequent aging conditions (sometimes, usually and always) included frailty (20.2%), vision problem (15.8%), loss of language ability (15.3%), sleep problem (14.9%) and memory impairment (14.5%). Other onset aging conditions included more chronic diseases (13.9%), hearing loss (13%), chewing ability and tooth loss (12.5%), incontinence (11.1%), depressive syndrome (7.7%), falls and gait disorder (7.2%), loss of taste and smell (7.2%). The data also showed scores of DSQIID, onset aging conditions and ADL has significant relationships each other in Pearson's correlation tests. Finally, multiple linear regression analyses indicated onset aging conditions (β=-0.735, p<0.001) can significantly predicted the variation in ADL scores after adjusting other factors (R(2)=0.381). This study suggests that the authority should initiate early intervention programs aim to improve healthy aging and ADL functions for people with DS.
Infante, Arantza; Gago, Andrea; de Eguino, Garbiñe Ruiz; Calvo-Fernández, Teresa; Gómez-Vallejo, Vanessa; Llop, Jordi; Schlangen, Karin; Fullaondo, Ane; Aransay, Ana M; Martín, Abraham; Rodríguez, Clara I
2014-04-01
Aging, a time-dependent functional decline of biological processes, is the primary risk factor in developing diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular or degenerative diseases. There is a real need to understand the human aging process in order to increase the length of disease-free life, also known as "health span". Accumulation of progerin and prelamin A are the hallmark of a group of premature aging diseases but have also been found during normal cellular aging strongly suggesting similar mechanisms between healthy aging and LMNA-linked progeroid syndromes. How this toxic accumulation contributes to aging (physiological or pathological) remains unclear. Since affected tissues in age-associated disorders and in pathological aging are mainly of mesenchymal origin we propose a model of human aging based on mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) which accumulate prelamin A. We demonstrate that prelamin A-accumulating hMSCs have a premature aging phenotype which affects their functional competence in vivo. The combination of prelamin A accumulation and stress conditions enhance the aging phenotype by dysregulating the activity of the octamer binding protein Oct-1This experimental model has been fundamental to identify a new role for Oct-1 in hMSCs aging.
Adams, Joanne; Pascal, Jan; Dickson-Swift, Virginia
2014-12-01
There is limited research exploring how domestic water restrictions imposed as a result of drought conditions impact upon the lives of independently living older people. Within this age group (60 years plus), the domestic garden frequently forms an intrinsic component of ongoing health and well-being. Gardening practice offers components of both mental and physical activity and, for many older people, leads to emotional and spiritual connection on a number of levels. The capacity of older people to maintain a garden during a period of water restrictions is greatly reduced, and the resulting impact on health and well-being is considerable. A recent study, conducted in south-eastern Australia, aimed to determine the benefits to health and well-being of maintaining a domestic garden for older people and the impact of water restrictions on garden practice. This occurred at a time following a prolonged period of drought and, in central Victoria, a complete ban on outside watering. In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with 10 gardeners aged between 60 and 83 who had tended their garden over an extended period. The lived experience of gardening was explored through hermeneutic phenomenological analysis. Clear benefits to health and well-being were established, and yet, the essence of this experience lay in the capacity of gardeners to remain connected to their garden despite change. The crisis imposed by ongoing drought and restricted use of water generated a strong impetus for adaptation, resilience and acceptance of change. The spiritual nature of gardening practice clearly emerged and appeared to intensify the experience of gardening and consolidate adaption to change on a number of levels.
Jogo, Kaori; Nakamura, Tomoki; Ito, Motoo; Wakita, Shigeru; Zolotov, Mikhail Yu.; Messenger, Scott R.
2017-02-01
Chondritic planetesimals are among the first planetary bodies that accreted inside and outside water snow line in the protoplanetary disk. CV3 carbonaceous chondrite parent body accreted relatively small amount of water ice, probably near the snow line, and experienced water-assisted metasomatic alteration that resulted in formation of diverse secondary minerals, including fayalite (Fa80-100). Chemical compositions of the CV3 fayalite and its Mn-Cr isotope systematics indicate that it formed at different temperature (10-300 °C) and fluid pressure (3-300 bars) but within a relatively short period of time. Thermal modeling of the CV3 parent body suggests that it accreted ∼3.2-3.3 Ma after CV3 CAIs formation and had a radius of >110-150 km. The inferred formation age of the CV3 parent body is similar to that of the CM2 chondrite parent body that probably accreted beyond the snow line, but appears to have postdated accretion of the CO and ordinary chondrite parent bodies that most likely formed inside the snow line. The inferred differences in the accretion ages of chondrite parent bodies that formed inside and outside snow line are consistent with planetesimal formation by gravitational/streaming instability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pichugina N.N.
2011-06-01
Full Text Available The article presents a complex sanitary characteristic of working conditions of women involved in wallpaper production. The main favorable factors of industrial environment have been determined. It is shown that working conditions in wallpaper production factories cause an increase in indices of biological age
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aroub A. Khleif
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction. Advances in hemophilia care and treatment have led to increases in the life expectancy among hemophiliacs. As a result, persons with hemophilia are reaching an older age and experiencing various age-related health conditions never seen before in this population. Aim. To determine the prevalence of comorbidities among middle-aged and elderly hemophilia A and hemophilia B patients. Methods. Retrospective chart review among all hemophilia patients, who attended the Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center. Results. All patients had at least one comorbid condition other than hemophilia, and the majority had between 3 and 6 comorbidities. The most common conditions identified were chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, HIV, chronic arthropathy, and overweight/obesity. Conclusions. Since persons with comorbidities are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require greater care in managing their health needs, caring for aging hemophiliacs is likely to pose various social and economic challenges for both patients and providers.
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
M K Naskar; M Chatterjee; D Ganguli
2002-04-01
Boehmite sols were obtained by peptizing boehmite precipitates with glacial acetic acid. The sols were aged at room temperature (30 ± 1°C) under closed condition. Rheological properties of the sols were studied at different ageing times. The sol characteristics were interpreted by measuring their viscosity, areas of hysteresis of the flow curves and yield stress (y). Viscosity and the area of hysteresis of the flow curves increased with increasing ageing time of the sols. A sharp change of yield stress was observed during the ageing period from 15 to 36 days. The change in viscous to elastic nature and the appearance of gel point of the sol was observed by studying their oscillatory flow behaviour, i.e. by measuring loss modulus (''), elastic modulus ('), and loss tangent (tan ) of the sols. Gel point of boehmite sol was found at 36 days of ageing under closed condition at room temperature (30 ± 1°C).
Diabetic macular edema, retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration as inflammatory conditions.
Das, Undurti N
2016-10-01
Diabetic macular edema (DME) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) are complications affecting about 25% of all patients with long-standing type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and are a major cause of significant decrease in vision and quality of life. Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is not uncommon, and diabetes mellitus affects the incidence and progression of AMD through altering hemodynamics, increasing oxidative stress, accumulating advanced glycation end products, etc. Recent studies suggest that DME, DR and AMD are inflammatory conditions characterized by a breakdown of the blood-retinal barrier, inflammatory processes and an increase in vascular permeability. Key factors that seem to have a dominant role in DME, DR and AMD are angiotensin II, prostaglandins and the vascular endothelial growth factor and a deficiency of anti-inflammatory bioactive lipids. The imbalance between pro- and anti-inflammatory eicosanoids and enhanced production of pro-angiogenic factors may initiate the onset and progression of DME, DR and AMD. This implies that bioactive lipids that possess anti-inflammatory actions and suppress the production of angiogenic factors could be employed in the prevention and management of DME, DR and AMD.
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martyniuk O.V.
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Purpose: to assess students’ health condition by indicators of adaptation potential, biological age and express-assessment. Material: in the research 47 first and second year girl students participated, who belonged to main health group. Results: we distributed the girl students into three groups: 14.89% of them were included in group with “safe” health condition; 34.04% - in group of “third state”; 51.06% were related to group with “ dangerous” health condition. We established that dangerous level was characterized by energy potential of below middle and low level. It is accompanied by accelerated processes of organism’s age destructions and tension of regulation mechanisms. Conclusions: the received results permit to further develop and generalize the data of students’ health’s assessment by indicators of adaptation potentials, biological age and physical health’s condition.
Leader Age and National Condition: A Longitudinal Analysis of 25 European Monarchs.
Simonton, Dean Keith
1984-01-01
Analyzed the reigns of 25 long-tenured European absolute monarchs for 238 five-year age periods to determine the relationship between age and achievement in the politico-military domain. Results indicated that age negatively correlated with success in foreign wars and with treaty negotiation, and positively correlated with civil instability at…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leszek S. Jankiewicz
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Tomatillo (Physalis ixocarpa Brot. grows in Poland much like in Mexico although its development cycle is much longer and lasts 6 months. It was sown at the beginning of April in a heated greenhouse, and transferred later on to a heated plastic tunnel. It was transplanted to a field about May 20 when danger of frosts had passed. Three local cultivars of Mexican origin were used and are briefly described. Their vegetative growth characteristics in Poland were similar to that of cv. Rendidora, which was described earlier in Mexico. The tomatillo internodes and leaves became progressively smaller with age. Tomatillo leaves and fruits were not attacked by Phytophthora infestans in the field and laboratory. Inoculation with tomato strains of this disease was without effect.
Jung, Hee-Won; Jang, Il-Young; Lee, Young Soo; Lee, Chang Ki; Cho, Eun-Il; Kang, Woo Young; Chae, Jeoung Hee; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Dae Hyun
2016-03-01
Frailty has been previously studied in Western countries and the urban Korean population; however, the burden of frailty and geriatric conditions in the aging populations of rural Korean communities had not yet been determined. Thus, we established a population-based prospective study of adults aged ≥ 65 years residing in rural communities of Korea between October 2014 and December 2014. All participants underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment that encompassed the assessment of cognitive and physical function, depression, nutrition, and body composition using bioimpedance analysis. We determined the prevalence of frailty based on the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Korean version of FRAIL (K-FRAIL) criteria, as well as geriatric conditions. We recruited 382 adults (98% of eligible adults; mean age: 74 years; 56% women). Generally, sociodemographic characteristics were similar to those of the general rural Korean population. Common geriatric conditions included instrumental activity of daily living disability (39%), malnutrition risk (38%), cognitive dysfunction (33%), multimorbidity (32%), and sarcopenia (28%), while dismobility (8%), incontinence (8%), and polypharmacy (3%) were less common conditions. While more individuals were classified as frail according to the K-FRAIL criteria (27%) than the CHS criteria (17%), the CHS criteria were more strongly associated with prevalent geriatric conditions. Older Koreans living in rural communities have a significant burden of frailty and geriatric conditions that increase the risk of functional decline, poor quality of life, and mortality. The current study provides a basis to guide public health professionals and policy-makers in prioritizing certain areas of care and designing effective public health interventions to promote healthy aging of this vulnerable population.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G.V. Bezprozvannych
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Introduction. The presence of free moisture in power cables leading to the formation of tree structures - water treeing, which originate in the amorphous phase polyethylene and are a major cause of degradation of the polymer insulation. They represent the damage of the polymer size from several microns to 1 mm, developing technology for insulation defects under the combined action of the electric field and the moisture diffusing from the environment. Water treeing destroys the polymer chain, resulting in the formation of microcavities filled with moisture. The dynamics of water treeing and subtle properties largely depend on the composition, morphology of the polymer insulation, chemical nature of the defect, in which they originate. Due to the force of gravity in the water formed typical only for her region with locally ordered structure - clusters, which cause loss of relaxation. Purpose. Features presence of relaxation losses in high-frequency range in polyethylene insulation during aging in high humidity conditions of samples power and RF cables. Methodology. Samples of the power cable for the voltage of 35 kV with a cross-linked polyethylene insulation radial water-blocking protection from moisture and radio-frequency coaxial cable with thermoplastic insulation for 1440 hours in a humidity of 100%. The dielectric loss tangent measured resonance method before and after aging. Originality. Experimentally found evidence of the existence in the polymer cable insulation free water in the form of areas with locally ordered structure - clusters. It is found that the solid polyethylene insulation in the frequency dependence of dielectric loss tangent maximum relaxation shown one at 10 MHz in the initial state, and there are two additional frequency range 500 kHz - 5 MHz after moistening. For cross-linked polyethylene insulation characteristic of large width Δf of the frequency spectrum in which the observed relaxation losses. It is obvious that
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Lee, Jeeyeon; Gwak, Eunji; Ha, Jimyeong; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Soomin; Lee, Heeyoung; Oh, Mi-Hwa; Park, Beom-Young; Oh, Nam Su; Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Yoon, Yohan
2016-01-01
The objective of this study was to describe the growth patterns of Staphylococcus aureus in combinations of NaCl and NaNO2, using a probabilistic model. A mixture of S. aureus strains (NCCP10826, ATCC13565, ATCC14458, ATCC23235, and ATCC27664) was inoculated into nutrient broth plus NaCl (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, and 1.75%) and NaNO2 (0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, and 120 ppm). The samples were then incubated at 4, 7, 10, 12 and 15℃ for up to 60 d under aerobic or vacuum conditions. Growth responses [growth (1) or no growth (0)] were then determined every 24 h by turbidity, and analyzed to select significant parameters (pvacuum packaging and even aerobic storage below 10℃. Furthermore, NaNO2 does not effectively inhibit S. aureus growth. PMID:28115886
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Logic, probability, and human reasoning.
Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P
2015-04-01
This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.
Demand-specific work ability, poor health and working conditions in middle-aged full-time employees
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else;
2014-01-01
We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross......-sectional questionnaire data from 3381 full-time employees responding to questions about vocational education, job demands and social support (working conditions), musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and major depression (MD) (poor health) and seven questions about difficulty managing different job demands (reduced demand...... was associated with six measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. We found no interaction between working conditions and poor health regarding reduced demand-specific work ability....
风速与风电功率的联合条件概率预测方法%Joint Conditions Probability Forecast Method for Wind Speed and Wind Power
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
王松岩; 于继来
2011-01-01
采用确定性预测模型对风速和风电功率进行预测,无法传递结果的概率可信程度,不适应风险分析与调控应用的需要.为此,建立了以当前时段实测风速和下一时段预报风速为联合条件的离散预报误差概率统计(forecast errorprobability distribution,FEPD)模型,并以该模型对未来时段的预报误差概率分布进行预测.首先由历史统计结果确定修正因子,利用风速波动分布特征(speed disturbance probability distribution,DPD)对预报误差概率分布进行偏度修正,再将修正后的预报误差概率分布与由确定性预测算法得到的结果相结合,从而得到风速概率性预测结果.实例表明,所提方法可以较好地预测未来时段风速及风电功率变化的概率分布结果.%Certainty forecast method could not meet the need of risk analysis and system operation because probability information was not included. This paper chose measured speed and forecast speed as joint conditions and made a discrete forecast error probability distribution (FEPD) model which could be used for next-time wind speed probability forecast. Firstly speed disturbance probability distribution (DPD) was adopted to modify skewness of FEPD with modification factor, then modified FEPD and certainty forecast value were combined to obtain wind speed probability distribution forecast result. DPD, FEPD and modification factor were all obtained from historical data with different statistical periods. In modification process, samples real-time scrolling technology was used to guarantee the distribution reasonable and promptly. Result shows that this model has a good effect when forecasting wind speed or power output probability distribution in next time range.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Оlena Potapova
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Purpose: to study influence of outdoor games on functional condition of the respiratory system of girls of the younger school age in the groups of 6–8 and 9–10 years old. Material & Methods: the problem of functional condition of external breath at girls of the younger school age (in the age groups of 6–8 and 9–10 years old, who were divided into the control group (CG in number of 32persons (CS No. 58 and the experimental (EG in number of 29 persons (OTEC No. 109 of Zaporozhe, is considered. Results: it is defined that the studied girls of both groups at the beginning of the research had mainly below average and average levels of functional condition of the system of external breath. Conclusions: the effective impact of outdoor games on functional condition of the whole organism in general and on the system of external breath, in particular, at girls of the experimental group in comparison with the studied girls of the same age of the control group is proved experimentally. Application of the large number of various outdoor games allowed diversifying the program of training at physical education classes emotionally and physically, than promoted the activation of functions of the whole organism of girls of the younger school age.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
高卓
2016-01-01
We choose the age of some batch in queuing system as the age of this system skillfully to analyse the generalized age process of SM[K]/PH[K]/2/FCFS in a discrete time . We introduce some auxiliary variables to construct a Markov chain associated with age process. We find the transition probability matrix of this Markov chain with dividing matrix to blocks. The conditions are the most complicated when the age of this system is negative. At last, we prove the matrix obtained is indeed a random matrix.%为了分析离散时间SM[K]/PH[K]/2/FCFS排队系统的年龄过程，我们选取系统中某一个顾客批的年龄作为系统的年龄，并引进一些附加变量构造一个关于年龄过程的马尔可夫链。我们将这马尔可夫链的转移矩阵写成分块矩阵进行计算，系统年龄为负数时情况最复杂。最后验证求出的矩阵确实为一个随机矩阵。
The short-term wind speeds prediction under the condition of probability distribution%联合条件下风力发电风速预测
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
田丽; 邓阅
2012-01-01
风速性质直接影响风力发电的功率，确定性预测在很多方面无法满足当前需要，而概率性预测比较符合实际，具有更强的实用性．采用以当前时段实测风速和下一时段预报风速为联合条件的离散预报误差概率统计模型（forecasterrorprobabilitydistribution，FEPD），从而预测短时（功率预测前几小时）风速，通过得到风速数据，在短时时段覆盖内，就能够预测风力发电的功率．实例证明，以风速为基础从而预测风力发电功率是一种有效的方法．%Abstract=The power of wind energy is directly influenced by the properties of wind speeds. Compared with the deterministic prediction, which can't meet the current demand in many aspects, probabilistic forecasting is practical and of strong practicability. In order to forecast the short-term (a few hours be- fore power prediction) wind speeds, the paper employs discrete FEPD based on the joint condition which contains the real-time wind speed and predicted following wind speed. According to the wind speeds data obtained,the power of wind energy within a short period of time can be predicted, h's a kind of effective method to forecast the wind energy power based on the speed of the wind.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
汪瑾; 陈果; 王洪伟; 冯康佳; 陈立波
2015-01-01
为了准确地进行航空发动机滚动轴承状态评估，提出了一种基于后验概率支持向量机的航空发动机滚动轴承状态评估方法。首先利用仿真数据建立了后验支持向量机模型，进行了分类试验和后验概率预测验证，然后利用航空轴承失效监控试验系统进行了滚动轴承性能退化试验，得到轴承不同工作状态的振动数据，最后利用获取的试验数据进行了滚动轴承状态评估，充分验证了该评估方法的正确性。%For assessment of condition for aero -engine rolling bearings,a method is proposed based on posterior prob-ability SVM.Firstly,the posterior probability SVMmodel is established by using simulation data,and the classification experiment and posterior probability prediction verification are carried out.Then,the performance degradation experi-ments for rolling bearings are conducted by using the aero -engine bearing failure monitoring test system,the vibration data of bearings under different working conditions is obtained.Finally,the rolling bearing condition assessment is car-ried out by using collected experiment data,and the validity of assessment method is fully verified.
Radon content in Danish till deposits: relationship with redox conditions and age
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gravesen, P.; Roll Jakobsen, P.
2010-07-15
This paper presents some results concerning the radon content and emanation rates in different Danish till deposits of Saalian and Weichselian age from a study carried out by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). (LN)
Evaluating probability forecasts
Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902
2012-01-01
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.
Elements of probability theory
Rumshiskii, L Z
1965-01-01
Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments
Cortez, IbDanelo; Bulavin, Dmitry V; Wu, Ping; McGrath, Erica L; Cunningham, Kathryn A; Wakamiya, Maki; Papaconstantinou, John; Dineley, Kelly T
2017-03-30
A major aspect of mammalian aging is the decline in functional competence of many self-renewing cell types, including adult-born neuronal precursors. Since age-related senescence of self-renewal occurs simultaneously with chronic up-regulation of the p38MAPKalpha (p38α) signaling pathway, we used the dominant negative mouse model for attenuated p38α activity (DN-p38α(AF/+)) in which Thr180 and Tyr182 are mutated (T→A/Y→F) to prevent phosphorylation activation (DN-p38α(AF/+)) and kinase activity. As a result, aged DN-p38α(AF/+) mice are resistant to age-dependent decline in proliferation and regeneration of several peripheral tissue progenitors when compared to wild-type littermates. Aging is the major risk factor for non-inherited forms of Alzheimer's disease (AD); environmental and genetic risk factors that accelerate the senescence phenotype are thought to contribute to an individual's relative risk. In the present study, we evaluated aged DN-p38α(AF/+) and wildtype littermates in a series of behavioral paradigms to test if p38α mutant mice exhibit altered baseline abnormalities in neurological reflexes, locomotion, anxiety-like behavior, and age-dependent cognitive decline. While aged DN-p38α(AF/+) and wildtype littermates appear equal in all tested baseline neurological and behavioral parameters, DN-p38α(AF/+) exhibit superior context discrimination fear conditioning. Context discrimination is a cognitive task that is supported by proliferation and differentiation of adult-born neurons in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus. Consistent with enhanced context discrimination in aged DN-p38α(AF/+), we discovered enhanced production of adult-born neurons in the dentate gyrus of DN-p38α(AF/+) mice compared to wildtype littermates. Our findings support the notion that p38α inhibition has therapeutic utility in aging diseases that affect cognition, such as AD.
Parfenov, Iu A
2012-01-01
The article presents the actual in modern medicine problem of professional burnout of polyclinic doctors of middle and elderly age. It is shown that the specificity of the polyclinic doctors' activity provokes the formation of professional burnout syndrome, paired with maladaptive neuro-psychic conditions. We studied the prevalence of this syndrome in polyclinic doctors of middle age and older; its specific versions among the middle-aged doctors were defined, where the level of burnout is associated with aggressive tendencies, and the elderly doctors, where professional burnout is associated with the instability of affective response. Pathogenic markers of compensatory redistribution of information saturation of indicators of electroencephalography to the occipital cortex at professional burnout in polyclinic doctors of the elderly age, reflecting the involution processes in prefrontal areas of the cerebral cortex of the brain were identified.
Briggs, Andrew M; Cross, Marita J; Hoy, Damian G; Sànchez-Riera, Lídia; Blyth, Fiona M; Woolf, Anthony D; March, Lyn
2016-04-01
Persistent pain, impaired mobility and function, and reduced quality of life and mental well-being are the most common experiences associated with musculoskeletal conditions, of which there are more than 150 types. The prevalence and impact of musculoskeletal conditions increase with aging. A profound burden of musculoskeletal disease exists in developed and developing nations. Notably, this burden far exceeds service capacity. Population growth, aging, and sedentary lifestyles, particularly in developing countries, will create a crisis for population health that requires a multisystem response with musculoskeletal health services as a critical component. Globally, there is an emphasis on maintaining an active lifestyle to reduce the impacts of obesity, cardiovascular conditions, cancer, osteoporosis, and diabetes in older people. Painful musculoskeletal conditions, however, profoundly limit the ability of people to make these lifestyle changes. A strong relationship exists between painful musculoskeletal conditions and a reduced capacity to engage in physical activity resulting in functional decline, frailty, reduced well-being, and loss of independence. Multilevel strategies and approaches to care that adopt a whole person approach are needed to address the impact of impaired musculoskeletal health and its sequelae. Effective strategies are available to address the impact of musculoskeletal conditions; some are of low cost (e.g., primary care-based interventions) but others are expensive and, as such, are usually only feasible for developed nations. In developing nations, it is crucial that any reform or development initiatives, including research, must adhere to the principles of development effectiveness to avoid doing harm to the health systems in these settings.
Roussas, George G
2006-01-01
Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2013-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned prob
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris
2008-01-01
The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…
ASSESSMENT OF LIVING CONDITIONS OF THE UKRAINIAN WORKING-AGE POPULATION
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mazhak, Iryna
2017-01-01
-political instability in the country, corruption, and personal financial status. Half of the respondents considered their family’s financial status to be unsatisfactory whilst only 15% deemed that they had satisfactory finances for life, and one-third declared themselves to be at poverty level. The highest number...... support from other people and 9% - had the opposite opinion. 77% declared that could get physical support and 13% - could not. 69% of the respondents were optimistic with respect to financial support whereas 20% considered that they could not get financial support. Few of the respondents mentioned...... as many women performing the majority of the duties as men. About one-third of the respondents considered their profession to be prestigious, about half - average, a quarter – low prestige. Respondents: the working-age population of Ukraine – males aged 18-65, females aged 18-60. The sample is split up...
Leisure as a Resource for Successful Aging by Older Adults with Chronic Health Conditions
Hutchinson, Susan L.; Nimrod, Galit
2012-01-01
Drawing on the model of Selective Optimization with Compensation (SOC) (Baltes & Baltes, 1990), the purpose of this article is to examine leisure-related goals of older adults with chronic conditions and the strategies they use to not only successfully manage their chronic health conditions but live well with them. Semi-structured in-person…
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Childers, Timothy
2013-01-01
Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,
Ozcan, Mutlu; Cura, Cenk; Brendeke, Johannes
2010-01-01
Purpose This study evaluated the effect of different aging methods on the repair bond strength and failure types of a microhybrid and a nanohybrid composite Materials and Methods Disk shaped microhybrid (Quadrant Anterior Shine-QA) and nanohybrid (Tetric EvoCeram TE) resin composite specimens (N = 1
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silène T Wavre-Shapton
Full Text Available The retinal pigment epithelium (RPE is a pigmented monolayer of cells lying between the photoreceptors and a layer of fenestrated capillaries, the choriocapillaris. Choroideremia (CHM is an X-linked progressive degeneration of these three layers caused by the loss of function of Rab Escort protein-1 (REP1. REP1 is involved in the prenylation of Rab proteins, key regulators of membrane trafficking. To study the pathological consequences of chronic disruption of membrane traffic in the RPE we used a cell type-specific knock-out mouse model of the disease, where the Chm/Rep1 gene is deleted only in pigmented cells (Chm(Flox, Tyr-Cre+. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM was used to quantitate the melanosome distribution in the RPE and immunofluorescent staining of rhodopsin was used to quantitate phagocytosed rod outer segments in retinal sections. The ultrastructure of the RPE and Bruch's membrane at different ages was characterised by TEM to analyse age-related changes occurring as a result of defects in membrane traffic pathways. Chm/Rep1 gene knockout in RPE cells resulted in reduced numbers of melanosomes in the apical processes and delayed phagosome degradation. In addition, the RPE accumulated pathological changes at 5-6 months of age similar to those observed in 2-year old controls. These included the intracellular accumulation of lipofuscin-containing deposits, disorganised basal infoldings and the extracellular accumulation of basal laminar and basal linear deposits. The phenotype of the Chm(Flox, Tyr-Cre+ mice suggests that loss of the Chm/Rep1 gene causes premature accumulation of features of aging in the RPE. Furthermore, the striking similarities between the present observations and some of the phenotypes reported in age-related macular degeneration (AMD suggest that membrane traffic defects may contribute to the pathogenesis of AMD.
Broadwater, Margaret; Spear, Linda P
2013-09-01
Pavlovian fear conditioning is an ideal model to investigate how learning and memory are influenced by alcohol use during adolescence because the neural mechanisms involved have been studied extensively. In Exp 1, adolescent and adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were non-injected or injected with saline, 1 or 1.5 g/kg ethanol intraperitoneally 10 min prior to tone or context conditioning. Twenty-four hours later, animals were tested for tone or context retention and extinction, with examination of extinction retention conducted 24h thereafter. In Exp 2, a context extinction session was inserted between the tone conditioning and the tone fear retention/extinction days to reduce pre-CS baseline freezing levels at test. Basal levels of acquisition, fear retention, extinction, and extinction retention after tone conditioning were similar between adolescent and adult rats. In contrast adolescents showed faster context extinction than adults, while again not differing from adults during context acquisition, retention or extinction retention. In terms of ethanol effects, adolescents were less sensitive to ethanol-induced context retention deficits than adults. No age differences emerged in terms of tone fear retention, with ethanol disrupting tone fear retention at both ages in Exp 1, but at neither age in Exp 2, a difference seemingly due to group differences in pre-CS freezing during tone testing in Exp 1, but not Exp 2. These results suggest that age differences in the acute effects of ethanol on cognitive function are task-specific, and provide further evidence for age differences cognitive functioning in a task thought to be hippocampally related.
Bruns, Deborah A; Campbell, Emily
2014-12-01
Trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome), identified by Patau and colleagues [1960; Lancet 1: 790-793] is the third most common autosomal condition. Population studies indicate less than one in 10 children reaches their first birthday. In the face of mixed findings and recommendations for treatment, additional research is needed to further determine what contributes to longevity and implications for treatment for presenting medical conditions. The purpose of the present study is to report on presenting medical conditions and the presence or absence of the specific conditions (age at survey completion). Data on nine survivors (seven female, two male) with trisomy 13 indicated mean gestational age of approximately 36 weeks, birth weight ranging from 1100 to 3290 g and mean length of 45.3 cm. Length of hospital stay after birth varied. The majority of infants presented with well-known physical characteristics. Medical conditions and their treatment varied at birth and at survey completion. Notably, several infants' cardiac anomalies resolved without surgical intervention. Surgeries were provided for a range of conditions including gastrostomy tube placement to address feeding issues and removal of intestinal blockage. There were no reports of holoprosencephaly. Implications and recommendations are provided.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bronwen M James
2015-03-01
Full Text Available There is evidence for both neurotoxic and neuroprotective roles of nitric oxide (NO in the brain and changes in the expression of the neuronal isoform of nitric oxide synthase (nNOS gene occur during aging. The current studies have investigated potential support for either a neurotoxic or neuroprotective role of NO derived from nNOS in the context of aging by comparing olfactory learning and locomotor function in young compared to old nNOS knockout (nNOS/- and wildtype control mice. Tasks involving social recognition and olfactory conditioning paradigms showed that old nNOS-/-animals had improved retention of learning compared to similar aged wildtype controls. Young nNOS-/- animals showed superior reversal learning to wildtypes in a conditioned learning task, although their performance was weakened with age. Interestingly, whereas young nNOS-/- animals were impaired in long term memory for social odors compared to wildtype controls, in old animals this pattern was reversed, possibly indicating beneficial compensatory changes influencing olfactory memory may occur during aging in nNOS-/- animals. Possibly such compensatory changes may have involved increased NO from other NOS isoforms since the memory deficit in young nNOS-/-animals could be rescued by the NO-donor, molsidomine. Both nNOS-/- and wildtype animals showed an age-associated decline in locomotor activity although young nNOS-/- animals were significantly more active than wildtypes, possibly due to an increased interest in novelty. Overall our findings suggest that lack of NO release via nNOS may protect animals to some extent against age-associated cognitive decline in memory tasks typically involving olfactory and hippocampal regions, but not against declines in reversal learning or locomotor activity.
Li, Qiankun; Chen, Yan; Ma, Kui; Zhao, Along; Zhang, Cuiping; Fu, Xiaobing
2016-01-01
Epidermal cells are an important regenerative source for skin wound healing. Aged epidermal cells have a low ability to renew themselves and repair skin injury. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, particularly UVB, can cause photo-aging of the skin by suppressing the viability of human epidermal cells. A chorion-derived stem cell conditioned medium (CDSC-CNM) is thought to have regenerative properties. This study aimed to determine the regenerative effects of CDSC-CNM on UVB-induced photo-aged epidermal cells. Epidermal cells were passaged four times and irradiated with quantitative UVB, and non-irradiated cells served as a control group. Cells were then treated with different concentrations of CDSC-CNM. Compared to the non-irradiated group, the proliferation rates and migration rates of UVB-induced photo-aged epidermal cells significantly decreased (p photo-aged epidermal cells significantly improved their viability, and their ROS generation and DNA damage decreased. The secretory factors in CDSC-CNM, including epidermal growth factor (EGF), transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β), interleukin (IL)-6, and IL-8 and the related signaling pathway protein levels, increased compared to the control medium (CM). The potential regenerative and reparative effects of CDSC-CNM indicate that it may be a candidate material for the treatment of prematurely aged skin. The functions of the secretory factors and the mechanisms of CDSC-CNM therapy deserve further attention.
Amaral, Regina; Ozcan, Mutlu; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Balducci, Ivan; Bottino, Marco Antonio
2008-04-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the durability of bond strength between a resin cement and aluminous ceramic submitted to various surface conditioning methods. Twenty-four blocks (5 x 5 x 4 mm(3)) of a glass-infiltrated zirconia-alumina ceramic (In-Ceram Zirconia Classic) were randomly divided into three surface treatment groups: ST1-Air-abrasion with 110-mum Al2O3 particles + silanization; ST2-Laboratory tribochemical silica coating method (110-microm Al2O3, 110-microm silica) (Rocatec) + silanization; ST3-Chairside tribochemical silica coating method (30-microm SiO(x)) (CoJet) + silanization. Each treated ceramic block was placed in its silicone mold with the treated surface exposed. The resin cement (Panavia F) was prepared and injected into the mold over the treated surface. Specimens were sectioned to achieve nontrimmed bar specimens (14 sp/block) that were randomly divided into two conditions: (a) Dry-microtensile test after sectioning; (b) Thermocycling (TC)-(6,000x, 5-55 degrees C) and water storage (150 days). Thus, six experimental groups were obtained (n = 50): Gr1-ST1 + dry; Gr2-ST1 + TC(;) Gr3-ST2 + dry; Gr4-ST2 + TC; Gr5-ST3 + dry; Gr6-ST3 + TC. After microtensile testing, the failure types were noted. ST2 (25.1 +/- 11) and ST3 (24.1 +/- 7.4) presented statistically higher bond strength (MPa) than that of ST1 (17.5 +/- 8) regardless of aging conditions (p silanization showed durable bond strength. After aging, air-abrasion with 110-microm Al(2)O(3) + silanization showed the largest decrease indicating that aging is fundamental for bond strength testing for acid-resistant zirconia ceramics in order to estimate their long-term performance in the mouth.
Gambaro, Carla; Lertora, Enrico; Mandolfino, Chiara
2016-10-01
Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) sandwich panels are increasing their application as structural and non-structural components in all kinds of construction. By varying the material and thickness of core and face sheets, it is possible to obtain sandwich structures with different properties and performance. In particular, their advantages as lightweight and high mechanical properties make them extremely suitable for the transport industry. One of the most critical aspects regarding composite materials for engineering application is their performance after hygrothermal aging. The panels used in this study are composed of low density core, made by thermosetting resin foam with microspheres and glass fibers rolled until obtaining the required thickness, and two face sheets of the same material but realized in high density. In this study, the authors focused on the bending behaviour of this kind of sandwich panel, as received and after severe aging cycles.
Diabetic macular edema, retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration as inflammatory conditions
Das, Undurti N
2016-01-01
Diabetic macular edema (DME) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) are complications affecting about 25% of all patients with long-standing type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and are a major cause of significant decrease in vision and quality of life. Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is not uncommon, and diabetes mellitus affects the incidence and progression of AMD through altering hemodynamics, increasing oxidative stress, accumulating advanced glycation end products, etc. Recent studies sug...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McAlister, W.H.; Coe, J.D.; Whyte, M.P.
1986-01-01
We report our detailed investigation of a 7-1/2-year-old girl with short stature, aged appearance, decreased subcutaneous fat and muscle mass, dry coarse hair, foot deformities, macroepiphyses with prominent but lax joints, and osteoporosis with recurrent fractures who is the offspring of first cousins. This constellation of abnormalities differs from previously reported cases where macroepiphyses were a prominent finding. Our patient appears, therefore, to have a new, autosomal recessively inherited, syndrome.
Condition Monitoring of a Thermally Aged HTPB/IPDI Elastomer by NMR CP Recovery Times
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
ASSINK,ROGER A.; LANG,DAVID; CELINA,MATHIAS C.
2000-07-24
A hydroxy-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB)/isophorone diisocyanate (IPDI) elastomer is commonly used as propellant binder material. The thermal degradation of the binder is believed to be an important parameter governing the performance of the propellant. The aging of these binders can be monitored by mechanical property measurements such as modulus or tensile elongation. These techniques, however, are not easily adapted to binder agents that are dispersed throughout a propellant. In this paper the authors investigated solid state NMR relaxation times as a means to predict the mechanical properties of the binder as a function of aging time. {sup 1}H spin-lattice and spin-spin relaxation times were found to be insensitive to the degree of thermal degradation of the elastomer. Apparently these relaxation times depend on localized motions that are only weakly correlated with mechanical properties. A strong correlation was found between the {sup 13}C cross-polarization (CP) NMR time constant, T{sub cp}, and the tensile elongation at break of the elastomer as a function of aging time. A ramped-amplitude CP experiment was shown to be less sensitive to imperfections in setting critical instrumental parameters for this mobile material.
Lu, Degan; Qiao, Yanru; Brown, Natalie E.; Wang, Junling
2017-01-01
Background People living with chronic health conditions exhibit higher risk for developing severe complications from influenza according to the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention. Although racial and ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination have been documented, it has not been comprehensively determined whether similar disparities are present among the adult population with at least one such condition. Objective To study if racial and ethnic disparities in relation to influenza vaccination are present in adults suffering from at least one chronic condition and if such inequalities differ between age groups. Methods The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2011–2012) was used to study the adult population (age ≥18) who had at least one chronic health condition. Baseline differences in population traits across racial and ethnic groups were identified using a chi-square test. This was conducted among various age groups. In addition, survey logistic regression was utilized to produce odds ratios of receiving influenza vaccination annually between racial and ethnic groups. Results The total sample consisted of 15,499 adults living with at least one chronic health condition. The numbers of non-Hispanic whites (whites), non-Hispanic blacks (blacks), and Hispanics were 8,658, 3,585, and 3,256, respectively. Whites (59.93%) were found to have a higher likelihood of self-reporting their receipt of the influenza vaccine in comparison to the black (48.54%) and Hispanic (48.65%) groups (Pinfluenza vaccine coverage than the white population (59.22%, 77.89) (both P0.05). After controlling for patient characteristics, the difference in influenza vaccine coverage between whites and the minority groups were no longer significant for adults aged 50–64 years. However, the difference were still statistically significant for those aged ≥65 years. Conclusions In the United States, there are significant disparities in influenza vaccination by race and ethnicity for
Multiple Chronic Conditions among Adults Aged 45 and Over: Trends Over the Past 10 Years
... have more physician visits ( 3 ). Out-of-pocket spending is higher for persons with multiple chronic conditions and has increased in recent years ( 5 ). Chronic disease, and combinations of chronic diseases, affects individuals to varying degrees and may impact an individual's ...
Agnieszka I. Piotrowicz-Cieślak; Maciej Niedzielski; Dariusz J. Michalczyk; Wiesław Łuczak; Barbara Adomas
2011-01-01
Germinability and the content of soluble carbohydrates were analysed in cereal seed (winter rye, cv. Warko; spring wheat, cv. Santa; hexaploid winter triticale, cv. Fidelio and cv. Woltario). Seed moisture content (mc) was equilibrated over silica gel to 0.08 g H2O/g dry mass and stored in a desiccator at 20oC for up to 205 weeks or were equilibrated to mc 0.06, 0.08 or 0.10 g H2O/g dm and subjected to artificial aging at 35oC in air-tight laminated aluminium foil packages for 205 weeks. It w...
Size-dependent chemical ageing of oleic acid aerosol under dry and humidified conditions
Al-Kindi, Suad S.; Pope, Francis D.; Beddows, David C.; Bloss, William J.; Harrison, Roy M.
2016-12-01
A chemical reaction chamber system has been developed for the processing of oleic acid aerosol particles with ozone under two relative humidity conditions: dry and humidified to 65 %. The apparatus consists of an aerosol flow tube, in which the ozonolysis occurs, coupled to a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and an aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS) which measure the evolving particle size and composition. Under both relative humidity conditions, ozonolysis results in a significant decrease in particle size and mass which is consistent with the formation of volatile products that partition from the particle to the gas phase. Mass spectra derived from the ATOFMS reveal the presence of the typically observed reaction products: azelaic acid, nonanal, oxononanoic acid and nonanoic acid, as well as a range of higher molecular weight products deriving from the reactions of reaction intermediates with oleic acid and its oxidation products. These include octanoic acid and 9- and 10-oxooctadecanoic acid, as well as products of considerably higher molecular weight. Quantitative evaluation of product yields with the ATOFMS shows a marked dependence upon both particle size association (from 0.3 to 2.1 µm diameter) and relative humidity. Under both relative humidity conditions, the percentage residual of oleic acid increases with increasing particle size and the main lower molecular weight products are nonanal and oxononanoic acid. Under dry conditions, the percentage of higher molecular weight products increases with increasing particle size due to the poorer internal mixing of the larger particles. Under humidified conditions, the percentage of unreacted oleic acid is greater, except in the smallest particle fraction, with little formation of high molecular weight products relative to the dry particles. It is postulated that water reacts with reactive intermediates, competing with the processes which produce high molecular weight products. Whilst the
Gillen, K. T.; Celina, M.; Clough, R. L.
1999-10-01
Monitoring changes in material density has been suggested as a potentially useful condition monitoring (CM) method for following the aging of cable jacket and insulation materials in nuclear power plants. In this study, we compare density measurements and ultimate tensile elongation results versus aging time for most of the important generic types of commercial nuclear power plant cable materials. Aging conditions, which include thermal-only, as well as combined radiation plus thermal, were chosen such that potentially anomalous effects caused by diffusion-limited oxidation (DLO) are unimportant. The results show that easily measurable density increases occur in most important cable materials. For some materials and environments, the density change occurs at a fairly constant rate throughout the mechanical property lifetime. For cases involving so-called induction-time behavior, density increases are slow to moderate until after the induction time, at which point they begin to increase dramatically. In other instances, density increases rapidly at first, then slows down. The results offer strong evidence that density measurements, which reflect property changes under both radiation and thermal conditions, could represent a very useful CM approach.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
胡磊; 钟子发; 康凯
2010-01-01
针对蜂窝移动通信定位技术中常见的非视距传播(NLOS)问题,提出了一种利用来波信号强度和来波方位角测量值的联合条件概率判决NLOS的算法(JCPDS-RA,joint conditional probability decision scheme with RSS and AOA),并将其与数据融合定位技术相结合,提高定位精度.推导了NLOS环境下RSS和AOA的条件概率密度模型,给出了JCPDS-RA算法和数据融合流程图,并进行了仿真实验,结果表明,该算法有效地提高了定位精度并有一定的普适性.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Venkatesulu
1996-01-01
Full Text Available Solutions of initial value problems associated with a pair of ordinary differential systems (L1,L2 defined on two adjacent intervals I1 and I2 and satisfying certain interface-spatial conditions at the common end (interface point are studied.
Jiménez, Alberto; Fabra, María José; Talens, Pau; Chiralt, Amparo
2012-06-20
Edible films based on corn starch, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) and their mixtures were prepared by using two different procedures to homogenize the film forming dispersions (rotor-stator and rotor-stator plus microfluidizer). The influence of both HPMC-starch ratio and the homogenization method on the structural, optical, tensile and barrier properties of the films was analysed. The ageing of the films was also studied by characterizing them after 5 weeks' storage. Starch re-crystallization in newly prepared and stored films was analysed by means of X-ray diffraction. HPMC-corn starch films showed phase separation of polymers, which was enhanced when microfluidization was applied to the film forming dispersion. Nevertheless, HPMC addition inhibited starch re-crystallization during storage, giving rise to more flexible films at the end of the period. Water barrier properties of starch films were hardly affected by the addition of HPMC, although oxygen permeability increased due to its poorer oxygen barrier properties.
A Survey of Cable Ageing Management and Condition Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Goo, Cheol Soo; Kim, In Young; Kim, Bok Ryul [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2011-05-15
Cable is one of the major nuclear power plant components that are directly related to safety, so that life assessment of the cable system is an important issue as one of international nuclear safety concerns. In general, cables installed in nuclear power plants have been regarded as maintenance-free component. However, for the long term operation, maintenance activities for cables important to safety should be done appropriately to ensure their capability for the required function This paper is summarized the findings from a review of published documents dealing with research on ageing management of safety-related electric cables used in nuclear power plants. Significant research in this area has been performed in several countries and international research projects
Demand-specific work ability, poor health and working conditions in middle-aged full-time employees.
Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else; Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Diderichsen, Finn
2014-07-01
We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross-sectional questionnaire data from 3381 full-time employees responding to questions about vocational education, job demands and social support (working conditions), musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and major depression (MD) (poor health) and seven questions about difficulty managing different job demands (reduced demand-specific work ability). Reduced demand-specific work ability varied from 9% to 19% among the 46-year old and from 11% to 21% among the 56-year old. Age was associated with two, gender with four, and education with all measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. MSP was associated with four and MD was associated with six measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. We found no interaction between working conditions and poor health regarding reduced demand-specific work ability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Puranik SS
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The field of anthropometry encompasses a variety of human body measurements, such as weight, height and size; including skin fold thickness, circumference, lengths, and breadths. Anthropometry is a key component of nutritional status assessment in children and adults. Anthropometric data for children reflect general health status, dietary adequacy and growth and development over time. The main objective of the study was to diagnose and analyze the magnitude and causes of nutritional and health problems of the village. Method: Anthropometric reference data of 100 children between 7-14 years of age from a small village situated 30 km from Pune. Using this data BMI i.e. Body Mass Index was calculated which helps in determining whether an individual is overweight or underweight. Result: The overall study helped us to find out the socioeconomic condition, hygienic condition as well as nutritional status of children. All the anthropometric measurements of the girls and boys in 7-14 years age group was found to be significantly normal. Conclusion: The hygienic condition of the village was good enough and in turn BMI data shows that the socioeconomic condition of the village was also good.
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice prob...
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Inui, Akinari; Takahashi, Ippei; Kurauchi, Sizuka; Soma, Yuki; Oyama, Toshiaki; Tamura, Yoshihiro; Noguchi, Takao; Murashita, Kouichi; Nakaji, Shigeyuki; Kobayashi, Wataru
2017-01-01
Purpose Prevention, early detection and effective rehabilitation of dysphagia are important issues to be considered in an aging society. Previous studies have shown conflicting findings regarding the association between dysphagia and its potential risk factors, including age, malnutrition, oral conditions, lifestyle and medical history. Herein, we assessed the prevalence and association of dysphagia with potential risk factors in 50- to 79-year-old adults dwelling in a community in Japan. Patients and methods In this study, there were 532 participants (185 males and 347 females). Participants who responded positively to the question “Do you sometimes choke on drinks/food such as tea and soup?” or those who presented with abnormal repetitive saliva swallowing test findings were diagnosed with dysphagia. The data collected from these participants included the following: number of teeth, occurrence of oral dryness, age, body mass index, serum albumin concentration, smoking, drinking and exercise habits, presence of diseases, such as diabetes mellitus and hypertension, and questions from the Mini–Mental State Examination. Results Dysphagia was observed in 33 males (17.8%) and 76 females (21.9%). To explore the effect of the potential risk factors on the prevalence of dysphagia, a model was built by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Using the forced entry method, oral dryness (odds ratio [OR] =3.683 and P=0.003 in males; OR =1.797 and P=0.032 in females) and the number of teeth (OR =0.946 and P=0.038 in males) were found to be significantly related to dysphagia. Conclusion This cross-sectional study demonstrated associations between oral conditions and dysphagia. Factors such as oral dryness and number of teeth may contribute to dysphagia more so than aging, lifestyle and comorbidity in community-dwelling adults over the age of 50. PMID:28352164
Health Maintenance in Very Old Age : Medical Conditions, Functional Outcome and Nutritional Status
Dong, Huan-Ji
2014-01-01
The overall aim of this thesis was to provide better understanding of the underlying factors related to health maintenance in very old people, with a focus on medical conditions, functional outcome and nutritional status. Data were gathered from the ELSA 85 project (Elderly in Linköping Screening Assessment). The ELSA 85 project was started in 2007 with a population-based survey of 85-year-old individuals (n = 650) residing in Linköping municipality, Sweden. During the study period from 2007 ...
Probability: A Matter of Life and Death
Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence
2016-01-01
Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…
Age-related sex differences in body condition and telomere dynamics of red-sided garter snakes.
Rollings, Nicky; Uhrig, Emily J; Krohmer, Randolph W; Waye, Heather L; Mason, Robert T; Olsson, Mats; Whittington, Camilla M; Friesen, Christopher R
2017-04-12
Life-history strategies vary dramatically between the sexes, which may drive divergence in sex-specific senescence and mortality rates. Telomeres are tandem nucleotide repeats that protect the ends of chromosomes from erosion during cell division. Telomeres have been implicated in senescence and mortality because they tend to shorten with stress, growth and age. We investigated age-specific telomere length in female and male red-sided garter snakes, Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis We hypothesized that age-specific telomere length would differ between males and females given their divergent reproductive strategies. Male garter snakes emerge from hibernation with high levels of corticosterone, which facilitates energy mobilization to fuel mate-searching, courtship and mating behaviours during a two to four week aphagous breeding period at the den site. Conversely, females remain at the dens for only about 4 days and seem to invest more energy in growth and cellular maintenance, as they usually reproduce biennially. As male investment in reproduction involves a yearly bout of physiologically stressful activities, while females prioritize self-maintenance, we predicted male snakes would experience more age-specific telomere loss than females. We investigated this prediction using skeletochronology to determine the ages of individuals and qPCR to determine telomere length in a cross-sectional study. For both sexes, telomere length was positively related to body condition. Telomere length decreased with age in male garter snakes, but remained stable in female snakes. There was no correlation between telomere length and growth in either sex, suggesting that our results are a consequence of divergent selection on life histories of males and females. Different selection on the sexes may be the physiological consequence of the sexual dimorphism and mating system dynamics displayed by this species.
Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem
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Juliana Bueno-Soler
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.
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Ioan DUTCA
2014-12-01
Full Text Available In this study the influence of tree’s age, location (i.e. latitude and altitude and soil conditions (i.e. pH, humus content, carbon to nitrogen ratio, cation exchange capacity and percent base saturation on tree allometry was investigated. The data was collected from 22 Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst plantations located in Eastern Carpathians of Romania, aged between 4 and 15. From each plantation a soil sample and 10 trees were collected for soil chemical properties and biomass measurements, respectively. Root collar diameter (RCD and height (H based allometric equations were developed for total tree and vegetative organs of the tree (i.e. stem, branches, needles and roots. Furthermore, the interaction between the standardised residuals of these models and the tested factors was analysed. In order to account for the random effect of the clustered data, the mixed-effect modelling procedure was used. The results have shown no influence of these factors (age, location and soil conditions on RCD based models, except for branches biomass model which was linked to soil carbon/nitrogen ratio. The H based models, however, were significantly influenced by latitude and soil cation exchange capacity as a consequence of H/RCD ratio change with these factors. The trees were more likely to allocate more to height growth when growing in higher latitudes or on soils with higher values of cation exchange capacity.
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Ai Koyanagi
Full Text Available Data on the association between chronic conditions or the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems in low- or middle-income countries is scarce, and global comparisons of these associations with high-income countries have not been conducted.Data on 42116 individuals 50 years and older from nationally-representative samples of the Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (Finland, Poland, Spain and the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa conducted between 2011-2012 and 2007-2010 respectively were analyzed.The association between nine chronic conditions (angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, depression, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and stroke and self-reported severe/extreme sleep problems in the past 30 days was estimated by logistic regression with multiple variables. The age-adjusted prevalence of sleep problems ranged from 2.8% (China to 17.0% (Poland. After adjustment for confounders, angina (OR 1.75-2.78, arthritis (OR 1.39-2.46, and depression (OR 1.75-5.12 were significantly associated with sleep problems in the majority or all of the countries. Sleep problems were also significantly associated with: asthma in Finland, Spain, and India; chronic lung disease in Poland, Spain, Ghana, and South Africa; diabetes in India; and stroke in China, Ghana, and India. A linear dose-dependent relationship between the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems was observed in all countries. Compared to no chronic conditions, the OR (95%CI for 1,2,3, and ≥ 4 chronic conditions was 1.41 (1.09-1.82, 2.55 (1.99-3.27, 3.22 (2.52-4.11, and 7.62 (5.88-9.87 respectively in the overall sample.Identifying co-existing sleep problems among patients with chronic conditions and treating them simultaneously may lead to better treatment outcome. Clinicians should be aware of the high risk for sleep problems among patients with multimorbidity. Future studies
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Zanping Han
Full Text Available High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed germination. Sixty-five QTLs distributed between the two populations were identified and a meta-analysis was used to integrate genetic maps. Sixty-one initially identified QTLs were integrated into 18 meta-QTLs (mQTLs. Initial QTLs with contribution to phenotypic variation values of R(2>10% were integrated into mQTLs. Twenty-three candidate genes for association with seed vigor traits coincided with 13 mQTLs. The candidate genes had functions in the glycolytic pathway and in protein metabolism. QTLs with major effects (R(2>10% were identified under at least one treatment condition for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, and mQTL3-4. Candidate genes included a calcium-dependent protein kinase gene (302810918 involved in signal transduction that mapped in the mQTL3-2 interval associated with germination energy (GE and germination percentage (GP, and an hsp20/alpha crystallin family protein gene (At5g51440 that mapped in the mQTL3-4 interval associated with GE and GP. Two initial QTLs with a major effect under at least two treatment conditions were identified for mQTL5-2. A cucumisin-like Ser protease gene (At5g67360 mapped in the mQTL5-2 interval associated with GP. The chromosome regions for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, mQTL3-4, and mQTL5-2 may be hot spots for QTLs related to seed vigor traits. The mQTLs and candidate genes identified in this study provide valuable information for the identification of additional quantitative trait genes.
Han, Zanping; Ku, Lixia; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jun; Guo, Shulei; Liu, Haiying; Zhao, Ruifang; Ren, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Liangkun; Su, Huihui; Dong, Lei; Chen, Yanhui
2014-01-01
High seed vigor is important for agricultural production due to the associated potential for increased growth and productivity. However, a better understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms is required because the genetic basis for seed vigor remains unknown. We used single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for four seed vigor traits in two connected recombinant inbred line (RIL) maize populations under four treatment conditions during seed germination. Sixty-five QTLs distributed between the two populations were identified and a meta-analysis was used to integrate genetic maps. Sixty-one initially identified QTLs were integrated into 18 meta-QTLs (mQTLs). Initial QTLs with contribution to phenotypic variation values of R(2)>10% were integrated into mQTLs. Twenty-three candidate genes for association with seed vigor traits coincided with 13 mQTLs. The candidate genes had functions in the glycolytic pathway and in protein metabolism. QTLs with major effects (R(2)>10%) were identified under at least one treatment condition for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, and mQTL3-4. Candidate genes included a calcium-dependent protein kinase gene (302810918) involved in signal transduction that mapped in the mQTL3-2 interval associated with germination energy (GE) and germination percentage (GP), and an hsp20/alpha crystallin family protein gene (At5g51440) that mapped in the mQTL3-4 interval associated with GE and GP. Two initial QTLs with a major effect under at least two treatment conditions were identified for mQTL5-2. A cucumisin-like Ser protease gene (At5g67360) mapped in the mQTL5-2 interval associated with GP. The chromosome regions for mQTL2, mQTL3-2, mQTL3-4, and mQTL5-2 may be hot spots for QTLs related to seed vigor traits. The mQTLs and candidate genes identified in this study provide valuable information for the identification of additional quantitative trait genes.
Grönlund, Leila; Hölttä, Teemu; Mäkelä, Annikki
2016-08-01
Shoot size and other shoot properties more or less follow the availability of light, but there is also evidence that the topological position in a tree crown has an influence on shoot development. Whether the hydraulic properties of new shoots are more regulated by the light or the position affects the shoot acclimation to changing light conditions and thereby to changing evaporative demand. We investigated the leaf-area-specific conductivity (and its components sapwood-specific conductivity and Huber value) of the current-year shoots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in relation to light environment and topological position in three different tree classes. The light environment was quantified in terms of simulated transpiration and the topological position was quantified by parent branch age. Sample shoot measurements included length, basal and tip diameter, hydraulic conductivity of the shoot, tracheid area and density, and specific leaf area. In our results, the leaf-area-specific conductivity of new shoots declined with parent branch age and increased with simulated transpiration rate of the shoot. The relation to transpiration demand seemed more decisive, since it gave higher R(2) values than branch age and explained the differences between the tree classes. The trend of leaf-area-specific conductivity with simulated transpiration was closely related to Huber value, whereas the trend of leaf-area-specific conductivity with parent branch age was related to a similar trend in sapwood-specific conductivity.
Bender, S; Müller, B; Oades, R D; Sartory, G
2001-04-15
Measures of selective attention processing like latent inhibition (LI) and conditioned blocking (CB) are disturbed in some patients with schizophrenia. [LI is the delay in learning about the associations of a stimulus that has been associated with no event (versus de novo learning); CB is the delay in learning the associations of a stimulus-component when the other component has already started to acquire these associations.] We proposed: (1) to replicate the reported decreases of CB in patients without paranoid-hallucinatory symptoms; (2) to see if CB depends on the age of illness-onset and its duration, as reported for LI. We studied 101 young and old, acute and chronically ill patients with schizophrenia, of whom 62 learned a modified 'mouse-in-house' CB task, and compared them with 62 healthy controls matched for age, education and socio-economic background. CB was more evident in patients with a diagnosis of paranoid schizophrenia than other subtypes. An unusual persistence of high CB scores through testing was associated with productive symptoms (including positive thought disorder). Reduced CB related to the expression of (a) Schneider's first rank symptoms of ideas-of-reference and (b) to negative symptoms like poor rapport and poor attention. CB was less evident in the older patients and those with an earlier illness-onset. In contrast to the similar LI test of selective attention, CB is found in patients with paranoid schizophrenia and its expression is not related closely to illness duration. This implies that the two tests reflect the activity of different underlying processes. We suggest that reduced CB on initial test-trials in nonparanoid schizophrenia reflects the unusual persistence of controlled information processing strategies that would normally become automatic during conditioning. In contrast, continued CB during testing reflects an unusual persistence of automatic processing strategies.
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Monte Carlo transition probabilities
Lucy, L. B.
2001-01-01
Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...
Probability in quantum mechanics
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J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Rech, Jason A.; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.
2012-01-01
Analysis of terrestrial gastropods that underlie the late Pleistocene Two Creeks forest bed (~ 13,800–13,500 cal yr BP) in eastern Wisconsin, USA provides evidence for a mixed tundra-taiga environment prior to formation of the taiga forest bed. Ten new AMS 14C analyses on terrestrial gastropod shells indicate the mixed tundra-taiga environment persisted from ~ 14,500 to 13,900 cal yr BP. The Twocreekan climatic substage, representing ice-free conditions on the shore of Lake Michigan, therefore began near the onset of peak warming conditions during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial and lasted ~ 1000 yr, nearly 600 yr longer than previously thought. These results provide important data for understanding the response of continental ice sheets to global climate forcing and demonstrate the potential of using terrestrial gastropod fossils for both environmental reconstruction and age control in late Quaternary sediments.
Lallukka, Tea; Rahkonen, Ossi; Lahelma, Eero; Arber, Sara
2010-09-01
This study aimed to examine how physical working conditions, psychosocial working conditions and work-family conflicts are associated with sleep complaints, and whether health behaviours explain these associations. We used pooled postal questionnaire surveys collected in 2001-2002 among 40-60-year-old employees of the City of Helsinki (n = 5819, response rate 66%). Participants were classified as having sleep complaints if they reported sleep complaints at least once a week on average (24% of women and 20% of men). Independent variables included environmental work exposures, physical workload, computer work, Karasek's job strain and work-family conflicts. Age, marital status, occupational class, work arrangements, health behaviours and obesity were adjusted for. Most working conditions were associated strongly with sleep complaints after adjustment for age only. After adjustment for work-family conflicts, the associations somewhat attenuated. Work-family conflicts were also associated strongly with women's [odds ratio (OR) 5.90; confidence interval (CI) 4.16-8.38] and men's sleep (OR 2.56; CI 1.34-4.87). The associations remained robust even after controlling for unhealthy behaviours, obesity, health status, depression and medications. Physically strenuous working conditions, psychosocial job strain and work-family conflicts may increase sleep complaints. Efforts to support employees to cope with psychosocial stress and reach a better balance between paid work and family life might reduce sleep complaints. Sleep complaints need to be taken into account in worksite health promotion and occupational health care in order to reduce the burden of poor sleep.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Assink, Roger Alan; Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Bernstein, Robert
2005-11-01
This report summarizes results generated on a 5-year cable-aging program that constituted part of the Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization (NEPO) program, an effort cosponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The NEPO cable-aging effort concentrated on two important issues involving the development of better lifetime prediction methods as well as the development and testing of novel cable condition-monitoring (CM) techniques. To address improved life prediction methods, we first describe the use of time-temperature superposition principles, indicating how this approach improves the testing of the Arrhenius model by utilizing all of the experimentally generated data instead of a few selected and processed data points. Although reasonable superposition is often found, we show several cases where non-superposition is evident, a situation that violates the constant acceleration assumption normally used in accelerated aging studies. Long-term aging results over extended temperature ranges allow us to show that curvature in Arrhenius plots for elongation is a common occurrence. In all cases the curvature results in a lowering of the Arrhenius activation energy at lower temperatures implying that typical extrapolation of high temperature results over-estimates material lifetimes. The long-term results also allow us to test the significance of extrapolating through the crystalline melting point of semi-crystalline materials. By utilizing ultrasensitive oxygen consumption (UOC) measurements, we show that it is possible to probe the low temperature extrapolation region normally inaccessible to conventional accelerated aging studies. This allows the quantitative testing of the often-used Arrhenius extrapolation assumption. Such testing indicates that many materials again show evidence of ''downward'' curvature (E{sub a} values drop as the aging temperature is lowered) consistent with the limited
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.
Non-Boolean probabilities and quantum measurement
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Niestegge, Gerd
2001-08-03
A non-Boolean extension of the classical probability model is proposed. The non-Boolean probabilities reproduce typical quantum phenomena. The proposed model is more general and more abstract, but easier to interpret, than the quantum mechanical Hilbert space formalism and exhibits a particular phenomenon (state-independent conditional probabilities) which may provide new opportunities for an understanding of the quantum measurement process. Examples of the proposed model are provided, using Jordan operator algebras. (author)
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Yan Yan
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The relationship between presence of diabetes and adverse neighborhood and housing conditions and their effect on functional decline is unclear. We examined the association of adverse neighborhood (block face and housing conditions with incidence of lower-body functional limitations among persons with and those without diabetes using a prospective population-based cohort study of 563 African Americans 49-65 years of age at their 2000-2001 baseline interviews. Methods Participants were randomly sampled African Americans living in the St. Louis area (response rate: 76%. Physician-diagnosed diabetes was self reported at baseline interview. Lower-body functional limitations were self reported based on the Nagi physical performance scale at baseline and the three-year follow-up interviews. The external appearance of the block the respondent lived on and five housing conditions were rated by study interviewers. All analyses were done using propensity score methods to control for confounders. Results 109 (19.4% of subjects experienced incident lower-body functional limitations at three-year follow-up. In adjusted analysis, persons with diabetes who lived on block faces rated as fair-poor on each of the five conditions had higher odds (7.79 [95% confidence interval: 1.36-37.55] to 144.6 [95% confidence interval: 4.45-775.53] of developing lower-body functional limitations than the referent group of persons without diabetes who lived on block faces rated as good-excellent. At least 80 percent of incident lower-body functional limitations was attributable to the interaction between block face conditions and diabetes status. Conclusions Adverse neighborhood conditions appear to exacerbate the detrimental effects on lower-body functioning associated with diabetes.
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Amit Kumar Dohare
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Aim: To study factors affecting morbidity and mortality pattern in goats in Chambal division of Madhya Pradesh under village conditions. Materials and Methods: The sampling scheme adopted during study was stratified three stage random sampling and data on 549 goats were recorded. Results: The overall morbidity and mortality rate was 20.58% and 10.20% respectively. Proportional mortality due to diarrhoea was highest (35.71% followed by pneumonia (28.57% and miscellaneous causes (12.5%. Pattern of morbidity in male and female was almost similar. Age of goats was the most important factor and accounted for 39.29%, 28.57% and 32.14% mortality in 0-3 month, 6-9 month and above 9 months, respectively. The effect of season on goat mortality was significant (p<0.05.The incidence of mortality were 41.07%, 37.5% and 21.43% in winter, rainy and summer season respectively. Conclusion: In goats mortality was significantly influenced by age groups and suggesting that more care and attention need to be paid in kids 0-3 months age irrespective of season. Mortality due to various diseases in kids and adults could be minimized by identifying the cause and giving proper treatment. [Vet World 2013; 6(6.000: 329-331
Czamara, Andrzej; Krzemińska, Aleksandra; Szuba, Lukasz
2011-01-01
The aim of the study was to estimate changes in heart rate (HR) values in response to the exercise under isokinetic conditions, with defined protocol using three different angular velocities and 2 minute break. The subjects were divided into two groups. The first group contained 18 males aged between 40 and 50, and the second group contained 20 males who were 20-30 years old. The heart rate was monitored before, during and after the strength moment measurement under isokinetic conditions of extensors and flexors of knee joint. The strength moment was measured with an angular velocity of 180 °/s, 120°/s and 60 °/s. The number of repetitions of extension and flexion of the knee joint was 10 for the angular velocity of 180 °/s, 8 for the angular velocity of 120 °/s and 5 for the angular velocity of 60 °/s. The break between each series of repetitions took 2 minutes. The peak torques for extensors and flexors of both lower extremities were measured. The peak torque and heart rate values increased with a decrease in the preset angular velocity and were lower in the second group. The results were within the norm accepted for submaximal heart rate index in both age groups.
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Inui A
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Akinari Inui,1 Ippei Takahashi,2 Sizuka Kurauchi,2 Yuki Soma,2 Toshiaki Oyama,1 Yoshihiro Tamura,1 Takao Noguchi,1 Kouichi Murashita,3 Shigeyuki Nakaji,2 Wataru Kobayashi1 1Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, 2Department of Social Medicine, 3COI Research Initiatives Organization, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Aomori Prefecture, Japan Purpose: Prevention, early detection and effective rehabilitation of dysphagia are important issues to be considered in an aging society. Previous studies have shown conflicting findings regarding the association between dysphagia and its potential risk factors, including age, malnutrition, oral conditions, lifestyle and medical history. Herein, we assessed the prevalence and association of dysphagia with potential risk factors in 50- to 79-year-old adults dwelling in a community in Japan. Patients and methods: In this study, there were 532 participants (185 males and 347 females. Participants who responded positively to the question “Do you sometimes choke on drinks/food such as tea and soup?” or those who presented with abnormal repetitive saliva swallowing test findings were diagnosed with dysphagia. The data collected from these participants included the following: number of teeth, occurrence of oral dryness, age, body mass index, serum albumin concentration, smoking, drinking and exercise habits, presence of diseases, such as diabetes mellitus and hypertension, and questions from the Mini–Mental State Examination. Results: Dysphagia was observed in 33 males (17.8% and 76 females (21.9%. To explore the effect of the potential risk factors on the prevalence of dysphagia, a model was built by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Using the forced entry method, oral dryness (odds ratio [OR] =3.683 and P=0.003 in males; OR =1.797 and P=0.032 in females and the number of teeth (OR =0.946 and P=0.038 in males were found to be significantly related to dysphagia
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability
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Smith, D.L.
1988-12-01
Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
de Stampa Matthieu
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical functional limitations (PFL have mainly been studied in older populations. The aim of this study was to better understand the course of PFL and associations with occupational factors by gender in a middle-aged working population. Methods The data came from 16,950 workers in the ESTEV (Enquête Santé Travail et Vieillissement cohort in France. PFL were assessed using the physical abilities section of the Nottingham Health Profile. Occupational conditions were measured with a self-administered questionnaire covering physical and psychosocial factors in 1990 and 1995. Multivariate analyses were used to assess the associations. Results The PFL appearance rate in 1995 was the same by gender (6.3%; the rate of PFL recovery was higher in men (23.9% versus 20.9%. Age was an independent factor of PFL at age 47 years or older in both genders after adjusting for confounding factors. The PFL appearance rate in 1995 was higher with physical occupational exposure in 1990, such as awkward work with a dose relation in both genders, while the PFL recovery rate decreased significantly only for men. Exposure to psychosocial occupational conditions, such as having the means to produce quality work in 1990, was significantly associated with a decreased PFL appearance rate in 1995 in both genders, and having high decision latitude in 1990 was associated with a decreased PFL appearance rate in 1995 only in men. Changes in exposure to occupational factors between 1990 and 1995 were associated with the PFL appearance and recovery rates in 1995 in both genders. Conclusions After five years, the course of PFL in this working population changed and was associated with physical and psychosocial occupational factors. Relationships were stronger for the PFL appearance rate in both genders and were weaker for recovery from PFL, mainly among women.
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Leser, C; Tisch, A; Tophoven, S
2016-11-01
Background: The number of older employees in shift and night work has increased significantly in recent years. Furthermore, the proportion of women in shift and night work has increased markedly. This is due to the aging workforce and the expansion of shift work in the tertiary sector. Previous research shows that shift work is often associated with health risks. Against this background, the aim of the present study is to examine the situation of working men and women on the threshold to higher working age with regard to the relationship between shift work and physical health. Methods: We employed data from the study "lidA - leben in der Arbeit" German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health, a survey of the German baby boom cohorts born in 1959 and 1965 (n=5 637). Linear regression models are used to study the effect of shift work - with and without night work - and of further work exposures on the baby boomers' physical health status. The models control for sleep and health-related behaviour and are stratified by gender. Among women, also the scope of work was taken into account. Results: The results show that male shift workers are burdened by their on average lower occupational status and by physical exposure; female shift workers additionally suffer from high personal effort and low rewards and female part-time shift workers also from overcommitment. Conclusion: Working conditions of shift workers are strongly characterised by work stress. In order to preserve aging shift workers' work ability, some organisational measures seem necessary. In this context, occupational safety and health management as well as opportunities for recovery and encouraging leadership should be considered.
Zurek, W H
2004-01-01
I show how probabilities arise in quantum physics by exploring implications of {\\it environment - assisted invariance} or {\\it envariance}, a recently discovered symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum systems. Envariance of perfectly entangled states can be used to rigorously justify complete ignorance of the observer about the outcome of any measurement on either of the members of the entangled pair. Envariance leads to Born's rule, $p_k \\propto |\\psi_k|^2$. Probabilities derived in this manner are an objective reflection of the underlying state of the system -- they reflect experimentally verifiable symmetries, and not just a subjective ``state of knowledge'' of the observer. Envariance - based approach is compared with and found superior to the key pre-quantum definitions of probability including the {\\it standard definition} based on the `principle of indifference' due to Laplace, and the {\\it relative frequency approach} advocated by von Mises. Implications of envariance for the interpretation of quantu...
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling
Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.
2007-01-01
Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.
1982-12-01
This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.
Negative Probabilities and Contextuality
de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary
2015-01-01
There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...
Helgertz, Jonas; Vågerö, Denny
2014-10-01
Early exiting from the labor force and into disability pension (DP) represents a major social problem in Sweden and elsewhere. We examined how being asymmetric (A-SGA) or symmetric (S-SGA) small for gestational age predicts transitioning into DP. We analyzed a longitudinal sample of 8125 men and women from the Stockholm Birth Cohort (SBC), born in 1953 and not on DP in 1990. The SBC consists of data from various sources, including self-reported information and data from administrative registers. The follow-up period was from 1991 to 2009. Yearly information on the receipt of DP benefits from register data was operationalized as a dichotomous variable. 13 percent of the sample moved into DP during follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine whether disadvantageous fetal growth--A-SGA and S-SGA--predicted DP. Men and women born A-SGA had a substantially increased hazard of DP. The full model suggested a hazard ratio of 1.68 (CI: 1.11-2.54), only being affected slightly by adulthood conditions. Several childhood conditions were also associated with DP. Such factors, however, mainly affected DP risk through adulthood conditions. The effect of SGA on DP appeared particularly strong among individuals from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. The evidence presented suggests that being A-SGA influences the risk of DP, independent of childhood and adulthood conditions, and similarly for men and women. Due to A-SGA being rather infrequent, reducing the occurrence of A-SGA would, however, only have a marginal impact on the stock of DP pensioners. For the individual affected, the elevation in the risk of DP was nevertheless substantial. Other childhood conditions exercised a larger influence on the stock of DP recipients, but they mostly operated through adulthood attainment. The importance of socioeconomic resources in childhood for the long term health consequences of SGA is interesting from a policy perspective and warrants further research.
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Varga, Tamas
This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…
Real analysis and probability solutions to problems
Ash, Robert P
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability: Solutions to Problems presents solutions to problems in real analysis and probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability; the interplay between measure theory and topology; conditional probability and expectation; the central limit theorem; and strong laws of large numbers in terms of martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with problems and solutions for the theory of measure and integration, followed by various applications of the basic integration theory.
Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin
2010-12-01
Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Schweitzer, S.; Schinagl, C.; Djuras, G.; Frühwirth, M.; Hoschopf, H.; Wagner, F.; Schulz, B.; Nemitz, W.; Grote, V.; Reidl, S.; Pritz, P.; Moser, M.; Wenzl, F. P.
2016-09-01
In recent years, LED lighting became an indispensable alternative to conventional lighting systems. Sophisticated solutions offer not only comfortable white light with a good color rendering. They also provide the possibility of changing illuminance and color temperature. Some systems even simulate daylight over the entire day, some including natural variations as due to clouds. Such systems are supposed to support the chronobiological needs of human and to have a positive effect on well-being, performance, sleep-quality and health. Lighting can also be used to support specific aims in a situation, like to improve productivity in activation or to support recreation in relaxation. Research regarding suitable light-settings for such situations and superordinate questions like their influence on well-being and health is still incomplete. We investigated the subjective preferences of men and women regarding light-settings for activation and relaxation. We supplied two rooms and four cubes with light sources that provide the possibility of tuning illuminance, color temperature and deviation from Plackian locus. More than 80 individuals - belonging to four groups differing in gender and age - were asked to imagine activating and recovering situations for which they should adjust suitable and pleasant lighting by tuning the above mentioned light properties. It was shown that there are clear differences in the lighting conditions preferred for these two situations. Also some combined gender- and age-specific differences became apparent.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Angela Luzia Miranda
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE The ethical dimension of the human condition in our times takes increasingly more space in current philosophical discussions. In this context, the ethical principle of responsibility has been widely discussed, particularly by authors who work on the ethical implications of modern technology. In his essay on ethics for the technological age, Hans Jonas proposes to base ethics on a principle of responsibility, taking into account that we live in the age of technological civilization. The present paper explores the origins and sources of Jonas’ principle of responsibility, focusing on the influence of his teacher Martin Heidegger on Jonas’s work. The paper analyses the intrinsic and intriguing relationship between Heidegger’s ontological concept of “care” [Sorge] and the idea or responsibility in Jonas, and it examines further the current discussion on the possibility of an ethical foundation for the techno scientific civilization. Keywords: Philosophy of technology; Éthics and technology; Ontology; Martin Heidegger; Hans Jonas.
Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph
2008-06-01
We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Toledo-Rodriguez
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Adolescence is a period of major physical, hormonal, and psychological changes. It is also characterized by a significant increase in the incidence of psychopathologies and this increase is gender-specific. Stress during adolescence is associated with the development of psychiatric disorders later in life. In this study, we evaluated the impact of psychogenic stress (exposure to predator odor followed by placement on an elevated platform experienced before puberty (days 28–30 on fear memories and hormonal response of male and female rats during adolescence and early adulthood. Stress before puberty impacted in a sex- and age-specific way on the responses to auditory and contextual fear conditioning in adolescence and adulthood: (a increased conditioned fear to the tone in males during adolescence but not during adulthood; (b impaired extinction to the tone in adult males; and (c reduced freezing responses to the context in adolescent females. Stress before puberty did not influence the corticosterone levels 30 minutes after an additional stressor given in adulthood. These results indicate that stress experienced prior to puberty can exert a sex-related differential impact on fear-related behaviors displayed by individuals during late adolescence and early adulthood.
Sutton, Nora B; van Gaans, Pauline; Langenhoff, Alette A M; Maphosa, Farai; Smidt, Hauke; Grotenhuis, Tim; Rijnaarts, Huub H M
2013-07-01
While bioremediation of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) is in general a robust technique, heterogeneity in terms of contaminant and environmental characteristics can impact the extent of biodegradation. The current study investigates the implications of different soil matrix types (anthropogenic fill layer, peat, clay, and sand) and bioavailability on bioremediation of an aged diesel contamination from a heterogeneous site. In addition to an uncontaminated sample for each soil type, samples representing two levels of contamination (high and low) were also used; initial TPH concentrations varied between 1.6 and 26.6 g TPH/kg and bioavailability between 36 and 100 %. While significant biodegradation occurred during 100 days of incubation under biostimulating conditions (64.4-100 % remediation efficiency), low bioavailability restricted full biodegradation, yielding a residual TPH concentration. Respiration levels, as well as the abundance of alkB, encoding mono-oxygenases pivotal for hydrocarbon metabolism, were positively correlated with TPH degradation, demonstrating their usefulness as a proxy for hydrocarbon biodegradation. However, absolute respiration and alkB presence were dependent on soil matrix type, indicating the sensitivity of results to initial environmental conditions. Through investigating biodegradation potential across a heterogeneous site, this research illuminates the interplay between soil matrix type, bioavailability, and bioremediation and the implications of these parameters for the effectiveness of an in situ treatment.
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schou, Erik; Meilby, Henrik
2013-01-01
Transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged forest management is currently taking place throughout Europe. Climate change is, however, expected to change growth conditions—possibly quite radically. Using a deterministic approach, it was the objective of this study to investigate the influence of...
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of false alarm.
Martí, Joaquín; Santa-Cruz, María C; Hervás, José P; Bayer, Shirley A; Villegas, Sandra
2016-01-01
Ataxias are neurological disorders associated with the degeneration of Purkinje cells (PCs). Homozygous weaver mice (wv/wv) have been proposed as a model for hereditary cerebellar ataxia because they present motor abnormalities and PC loss. To ascertain the physiopathology of the weaver condition, the development of the cerebellar cortex lobes was examined at postnatal day (P): P8, P20 and P90. Three approaches were used: 1) quantitative determination of several cerebellar features; 2) qualitative evaluation of the developmental changes occurring in the cortical lobes; and 3) autoradiographic analyses of PC generation and placement. Our results revealed a reduction in the size of the wv/wv cerebellum as a whole, confirming previous results. However, as distinguished from these reports, we observed that quantified parameters contribute differently to the abnormal growth of the wv/wv cerebellar lobes. Qualitative analysis showed anomalies in wv/wv cerebellar cytoarchitecture, depending on the age and lobe analyzed. Such abnormalities included the presence of the external granular layer after P20 and, at P90, ectopic cells located in the molecular layer following several placement patterns. Finally, we obtained autoradiographic evidence that wild-type and wv/wv PCs presented similar neurogenetic timetables, as reported. However, the innovative character of this current work lies in the fact that the neurogenetic gradients of wv/wv PCs were not modified from P8 to P90. A tendency for the accumulation of late-formed PCs in the anterior and posterior lobes was found, whereas early-generated PCs were concentrated in the central and inferior lobes. These data suggested that wv/wv PCs may migrate properly to their final destinations. The extrapolation of our results to patients affected with cerebellar ataxias suggests that all cerebellar cortex lobes are affected with several age-dependent alterations in cytoarchitectonics. We also propose that PC loss may be regionally
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harcourt Robert G
2006-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Chemical immobilization of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii has previously been, for the most part, problematic and this has been mainly attributed to the type of immobilizing agent used. In addition to individual sensitivity, physiological status may play an important role. We investigated the use of the intravenous administration of a 1:1 mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam (Telazol® to immobilize adult females at different points during a physiologically demanding 5–6 week lactation period. We also compared performance between IV and IM injection of the same mixture. Results The tiletamine:zolazepam mixture administered intravenously was an effective method for immobilization with no fatalities or pronounced apnoeas in 106 procedures; however, there was a 25 % (one animal in four mortality rate with intramuscular administration. Induction time was slightly longer for females at the end of lactation (54.9 ± 2.3 seconds than at post-parturition (48.2 ± 2.9 seconds. In addition, the number of previous captures had a positive effect on induction time. There was no evidence for effects due to age, condition (total body lipid, stage of lactation or number of captures on recovery time. Conclusion We suggest that intravenous administration of tiletamine and zolazepam is an effective and safe immobilizing agent for female Weddell seals. Although individual traits could not explain variation in recovery time, we suggest careful monitoring of recovery times during longitudinal studies (> 2 captures. We show that physiological pressures do not substantially affect response to chemical immobilization with this mixture; however, consideration must be taken for differences that may exist for immobilization of adult males and juveniles. Nevertheless, we recommend a mass-specific dose of 0.50 – 0.65 mg/kg for future procedures with adult female Weddell seals and a starting dose of 0.50 mg/kg for other age classes and other
Whiting, Alan B
2014-01-01
Professor Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the twentieth century, best known for his doctrine of falsifiability. His axiomatic formulation of probability, however, is unknown to current scientists, though it is championed by several current philosophers of science as superior to the familiar version. Applying his system to problems identified by himself and his supporters, it is shown that it does not have some features he intended and does not solve the problems they have identified.
Sirca, Simon
2016-01-01
This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.
Slakter, Jason S; Stur, Michael
2005-01-01
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a chronic, progressive, degenerative disease of the macula and is the leading cause of central vision loss among elderly people in the western world. Traditionally, clinical studies of AMD have described the impact of AMD, and treatments for AMD, in terms of the patient's visual acuity. However, visual acuity alone does not provide information about a patient's perception of his or her quality of life. Researchers have used a variety of instruments to measure quality of life. Several studies have shown that AMD can severely impair quality of life and that increasing vision loss is associated with increasing impairment of quality of life and frequently causes depression. Interestingly, patients with only one eye affected may become more depressed than those with both eyes affected, possibly because of uncertainty surrounding future vision loss in patients with one eye affected and a greater acceptance of the condition in those with both eyes affected. Studies also have provided some information on the possible quality of life benefits of therapy for AMD. By incorporating measurements of quality of life into the design of future prospective studies, clinical researchers may be able to obtain more comprehensive data on the impact of AMD on patients and the relative benefits of different therapies.
Emptiness Formation Probability
Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon
2016-08-01
We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.
Learning unbelievable marginal probabilities
Pitkow, Xaq; Miller, Ken D
2011-01-01
Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some le...
Measure, integral and probability
Capiński, Marek
2004-01-01
Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.
Probabilities for Solar Siblings
Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.
2015-02-01
We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.
Probabilities for Solar Siblings
Valtonen, M; Bobylev, V V; Myllari, A
2015-01-01
We have shown previously (Bobylev et al 2011) that some of the stars in the Solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to Galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the Sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10% (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lykke, Rune; Blaakær, Jan; Ottesen, Bent
2015-01-01
INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery after hysterectomy from 1977 to 2009, the time interval from hysterectomy to POP surgery, and age characteristics of women undergoing POP surgery after hysterectomy and to estim......INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery after hysterectomy from 1977 to 2009, the time interval from hysterectomy to POP surgery, and age characteristics of women undergoing POP surgery after hysterectomy...
Savage s Concept of Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
熊卫
2003-01-01
Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...
Cutzach, I; Chatonnet, P; Dubourdieu, D
2000-06-01
Sweet fortified wines, traditionally aged under strong oxidation conditions, have a characteristic aroma. An experimental study investigated the aging of white sweet fortified wines under various conditions. The development of various molecules, previously identified as characteristic of the aroma of this type of wine, was monitored by analysis. The development of these compounds during accelerated aging was affected by oxidation and the color of the wine. Aging in oak containers, variable storage temperatures, and variable modes of oxidation affect the formation of many of the volatile compounds responsible for the aging aroma of vins doux naturels (fortified wines). Furfural (1), 5-ethoxymethylfurfural (2), and sotolon (3) always reach concentrations above their perception thresholds in wood-aged wines, especially when new oak is used. The isomers of methyl-gamma-octalactone (4 and 5) are reliable indicators of aging in oak. Among the many identifiable volatile phenols, only the vanillin (7) content increases with aging, particularly if the container is made of wood and there is a high degree of oxidation. This molecule frequently reaches and even exceeds its perception threshold. We show here that vanillin and isomers of methyl-gamma-octalactone have a major impact on the aromas of fortified wines.
Probability and rational choice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Botting
2014-04-01
Full Text Available In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.
Probability state modeling theory.
Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I
2015-07-01
As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.
A basic course in probability theory
Bhattacharya, Rabi
2016-01-01
This text develops the necessary background in probability theory underlying diverse treatments of stochastic processes and their wide-ranging applications. In this second edition, the text has been reorganized for didactic purposes, new exercises have been added and basic theory has been expanded. General Markov dependent sequences and their convergence to equilibrium is the subject of an entirely new chapter. The introduction of conditional expectation and conditional probability very early in the text maintains the pedagogic innovation of the first edition; conditional expectation is illustrated in detail in the context of an expanded treatment of martingales, the Markov property, and the strong Markov property. Weak convergence of probabilities on metric spaces and Brownian motion are two topics to highlight. A selection of large deviation and/or concentration inequalities ranging from those of Chebyshev, Cramer–Chernoff, Bahadur–Rao, to Hoeffding have been added, with illustrative comparisons of thei...
Guler Yigitoglu, Askin
multi-state physics based model is selected to represent the aging process. The model is modified via sojourn time approach to reflect the operational and maintenance history dependence of the transition rates. Thermal-hydraulic parameters of the model are calculated via the reactor simulation environment and uncertainties associated with both parameters and the models are assessed via a two-loop Monte Carlo approach (Latin hypercube sampling) to propagate input probability distributions through the physical model. The effort documented in this thesis towards this overall objective consists of : i) defining a process for selecting critical passive components and related aging mechanisms, ii) aging model selection, iii) calculating the probability that aging would cause the component to fail, iv) uncertainty/sensitivity analyses, v) procedure development for modifying an existing PRA to accommodate consideration of passive component failures, and, vi) including the calculated failure probability in the modified PRA. The proposed methodology is applied to pressurizer surge line pipe weld aging and steam generator tube degradation in pressurized water reactors.
von Suchodoletz, Hans; Benito, Dario Martin; Pederson, Neil; Faust, Dominik
2016-04-01
From the 15th century to ca. 1850 AD, the Little Ice Age (LIA), was one of the most prominent climatic fluctuations during the Holocene. It was characterized by negative temperature anomalies evidenced for many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Mann 2002). During the LIA, many of these regions showed significant changes of their landscape dynamics such as glacier advances and an intensified hydrological cycle. Although glacier advances and reduced pine growth are reported from the Greater Caucasus for parts of the LIA (Solomina 2005), little is known about the hydrological conditions of the humid to semi-arid Lesser Caucasus and Transcaucasus region during the LIA. Existing pollen records are so strongly disturbed by anthropogenic activity during the last millenia that the LIA is not resolved in the only existing pollen-based precipitation reconstruction for the region (Connor & Kvavadze 2008). Here, we present data derived from different kinds of geomorphological archives from the southern Caucasus region (fluvial sediments, indicators for the timing of incision of recently dry valleys). These data demonstrate intensive geomorphic activity during the LIA obviously caused by a strongly intensified hydrological cycle. Given the rather low temporal resolution of these geomorphological archives, however, more highly-resolved palaeoenvironmental data are needed to better understand also minor climatic and hydrologic fluctuations around the LIA period. To this end, we intend to use a recently developed multispecies tree-ring network from living trees (Martin-Benito et al., in revision). This tree-ring network will be expanded both in space and time using subfossil wood material (stems) found embedded into fluvial LIA-terrace deposits and radiocarbon-dated to the end of the 15th century AD. By overlapping these samples with the living tree network, we will be able to better characterize sub-ordinate climatic and hydrologic fluctuations during the LIA period. References
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mazhak, Iryna
Relationship between socio-economic status, working conditions, and inequalities in health is well examined. However, literature on inequalities in self-reported health connected with socioeconomic status, economic activity, and work conditions in Ukraine is scarce, and evidence of related social...... policy action on this problem is largely absent. Data from the 2 - 6 rounds (5158respondents at age 22-65 years) of a European SocialSurvey were used to examine how socioeconomic status, work conditions, and economic activity influence self-reported poor health (poor SRH) of Ukrainian working......-age respondents. The data were analyzed using the IBM SPSS22 (logistic regression was used to assess the effect of the variables on poor SRH). Such variables as, socio-economic status, economic activity, work conditions were created by using principal component analysis.A binomial logistic regression...
Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith
2013-01-01
Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.
Survival probability in patients with liver trauma.
Buci, Skender; Kukeli, Agim
2016-08-01
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients' survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients' privacy. Findings - When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability. Practical implications - The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management. Originality/value - This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma.
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
Amaral, Regina; Ozcan, Mutlu; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Balducci, Ivan; Bottino, Marco Antonio
2008-01-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the durability of bond strength between a resin cement and aluminous ceramic submitted to various surface conditioning methods. Twenty-four blocks (5 X 5 X 4 mm 3) of a glass-in filtrated zirconia-alumina ceramic (inCeram Zirconia Classic) were randomly di
Concepts of probability in radiocarbon analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bernhard Weninger
2011-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper we explore the meaning of the word probability, not in general terms, but restricted to the field of radiocarbon dating, where it has the meaning of ‘dating probability assigned to calibrated 14C-ages’. The intention of our study is to improve our understanding of certain properties of radiocarbon dates, which – although mathematically abstract – are fundamental both for the construction of age models in prehistoric archaeology, as well as for an adequate interpretation of their reliability.
Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models
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Julian Vasilev
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.
Constructor theory of probability.
Marletto, Chiara
2016-08-01
Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalizing and improving upon the so-called 'decision-theoretic approach', I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information-where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which constructor theory gives an exact meaning) necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch-Wallace-type argument-thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles.
EFFECT OF AGING CONDITION ON STRUCTURE AND THE PROPERTIES OF Al-ALLOY / SiC COMPOSITE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chennakesava Reddy A,
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The heat treatments have been designed to vary the matrix microstructure in P/M processed SiC reinforced 7xxx Aluminum alloys to determine the effects of matrix microstructure, interface behavior on the mechanical properties. Smooth tensile, notched bend tests wereperformed. The results conclude that the clustered regions have been observed as preferred initiation sites in both tensile and notched bend experiments on the SiC / Al-alloy composites. Despite the relative similarity in macroscopic tensile properties between the under aged and over aged composite, quantitative fractography evealed preference for SiC fracture in the under aged composite and preference for interface or near-interface failure in the over aged composite.
A consistent set of infinite-order probabilities
Atkinson, David; Peijnenburg, Jeanne
2013-01-01
Some philosophers have claimed that it is meaningless or paradoxical to consider the probability of a probability. Others have however argued that second-order probabilities do not pose any particular problem. We side with the latter group. On condition that the relevant distinctions are taken into
Bender,; Müller; Oades,; Sartory,
2001-01-01
Introduction: Measures of selective attention processing like latent inhibition (LI) and conditioned blocking (CB) are disturbed in some patients with schizophrenia. (LI is the delay in learning about the associations of a stimulus that has been associated with no event [vs. de novo learning]; CB is the delay in learning the associations of a stimulus-component when the other component has already started to acquire these associations.) We proposed, - a) to replicate the reported decre...
2010-07-01
... AND HOUR DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR REGULATIONS CHILD LABOR REGULATIONS, ORDERS AND STATEMENTS OF INTERPRETATION Employment of Minors Between 14 and 16 Years of Age (Child Labor Reg. 3) § 570.35 Hours of work... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Hours of work and conditions of employment permitted...
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Ott, Christian D
2014-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we derive the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, $P_{\\rm BH}(M_{\\rm ZAMS})$. We explore possible biases in the observed BH mass distribution and find that this sample is best suited for studying BH formation in stars with ZAMS masses in the range $12-...
Samuel, Laura J; Glass, Thomas A; Thorpe, Roland J; Szanton, Sarah L; Roth, David L
2015-03-01
Socioeconomic resources, such as education, prevent disability but are not readily modifiable. We tested the hypothesis that household and neighborhood conditions, which may be modifiable, partially account for associations between education and physical capacity in a population-based sample of older adults. The National Health and Aging Trends Study measured education (physical capacity with the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), grip strength and peak expiratory flow. Structural equation models were used to decompose total educational effects into direct effects and indirect effects via household and neighborhood conditions, using sample weights and adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, BMI, self-reported health, and number of medical conditions in 6874 community-dwelling participants. Education was directly associated with SPPB scores (β = 0.055, p education and SPPB scores, grip strength level, and peak expiratory flow level, respectively. Household disorder and street disorder partially accounted for educational disparities in physical capacity. However, educational disparities in SPPB scores and peak expiratory flow persisted after accounting for household and neighborhood conditions and chronic conditions, suggesting additional pathways. Interventions and policies aiming to support aging in place should consider addressing household-level and street-level disorder.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesca Caterina Izzo
2014-12-01
Full Text Available This study is part of a research project dealing with the establishment of monitoring and damage prevention plans for contemporary artworks. For this purpose, some commercial paints, among the most currently used by young artists, were selected: Winton oil paint (Winsor & Newton, UK, Heavy Body acrylic paint (Liquitex, USA and Flashe vinyl paint (Lefranc & Bourgeois, France. The paints were subjected to different treatments of accelerated ageing, the results indicating different behaviour in relation both to the type of binders and pigments present in the different formulations. In particular, it was observed that ageing produced by ozone plays an important role in the stability of the oil paints, above all in those containing organic azo pigments. Thermal ageing, as expected, influences the stability of all the commercial paints examined, with the formation of alteration products and visible changes in the paint films. Ageing produced by moisture clearly affects the synthetic polymer-based paints, particularly evident in the changes in mass. In all cases, the accelerated ageing treatments produced chromatic variations, more evidently for the oil paints containing organic pigment.
Scholte, Robert; van den Berg, Gerard J; Lindeboom, Maarten; Deeg, Dorly J H
2017-01-01
This paper considers determinants of physical functional limitations in daily-life activities at high ages. Specifically, we quantify the extent to which the impact of adverse life events on this outcome is larger in case of exposure to adverse economic conditions early in life. Adverse life events include bereavement, severe illness in the family, and the onset of chronic diseases. We use a longitudinal data set of individuals born in the first decades of the 20th century. The business cycle around birth is used as an indicator of economic conditions early in life. We find that the extent to which functional limitations suffer from the onset of chronic diseases is larger if the individual was born in a recession. The long-run effect of economic conditions early in life on functional limitations at high ages runs primarily via this life event. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric
2006-01-01
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usuall...
Korte, S.M.; Buwalda, B.; Bouws, G.A.H.; Koolhaas, J.M.; Maes, F.W.; Bohus, B.
1992-01-01
Mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), plasma epinephrine (E), plasma norepinephrine (NE), and plasma corticosterone (CORT) were measured in 3-month- and 24-month-old male Wistar rats exposed to a conditioned emotional stress response (CER) paradigm and a conditioned defensive burying (CDB)
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.
2010-01-01
Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.
Cejka, Pavel; Culík, Jiří; Horák, Tomáš; Jurková, Marie; Olšovská, Jana
2013-12-26
The rate of beer aging is affected by storage conditions including largely time and temperature. Although bottled beer is commonly stored for up to 1 year, sensorial damage of it is quite frequent. Therefore, a method for retrospective determination of temperature of stored beer was developed. The method is based on the determination of selected carbonyl compounds called as "aging indicators", which are formed during beer aging. The aging indicators were determined using GC-MS after precolumn derivatization with O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentaflourobenzyl)hydroxylamine hydrochloride, and their profile was correlated with the development of old flavor evolving under defined conditions (temperature, time) using both a mathematical and statistical apparatus. Three approaches, including calculation from regression graph, multiple linear regression, and neural networks, were employed. The ultimate uncertainty of the method ranged from 3.0 to 11.0 °C depending on the approach used. Furthermore, the assay was extended to include prediction of beer tendency to sensory aging from freshly bottled beer.
Porter, S; Birt, A R; Boer, D P
2001-12-01
Using the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991) diagnostic cut-off score of 30, the complete criminal career and community release profiles of 317 Canadian federal offenders (224 low scorers and 93 scoring within the psychopathic range) were investigated. Adult crimes were coded according to age at commission as well as either violent, nonviolent, or nonsexually violent. Changes in performance following release into the community also were examined. Results indicated that offenders scoring within the psychopathic range consistently committed more violent and nonviolent crimes than their counterparts for about three decades, spanning their late adolescence to their late 40s. Numbers of nonviolent criminal offenses committed by high PCL-R scorers declined considerably after age 30 relative to violent offenses, which declined and then rebounded in the late 30s before a major reduction was evidenced. Throughout adulthood, high PCL-R scorers failed during community release significantly faster than did low scorers. Importantly, from a risk management perspective, the release performance of low PCL-R scorers improved with age, whereas the opposite was seen for high scorers. Further, offenders scoring high on the PCL-R did not show a lower charge to conviction ratio with age, suggesting that they may not have been getting better at manipulating the legal system.
Reed, P.; Staytom, L.; Stott, S.; Truzoli, R.
2011-01-01
Background: This study investigated the relative ease of learning across four tasks suggested by an adaptation of Thomas's hierarchy of learning in children with Down syndrome, autism spectrum disorders and mental age-matched controls. Methods: Learning trials were carried out to investigate observational learning, instrumental learning, reversal…
Hazan, Valerie; Tuomainen, Outi; Pettinato, Michèle
2016-01-01
Purpose: This study investigated the acoustic characteristics of spontaneous speech by talkers aged 9-14 years and their ability to adapt these characteristics to maintain effective communication when intelligibility was artificially degraded for their interlocutor. Method: Recordings were made for 96 children (50 female participants, 46 male…
Mechanical Response of Al-1.09Mg2Si Alloy under Varying Mould and Thermal Ageing Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. I. Sekunowo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Samples of the 6063 (Al-1.09Mg2Si alloy ingot were melted in a crucible furnace and cast in metal and sand moulds, respectively. Standard tensile, hardness, and microstructural test specimens were prepared from cast samples, solution treated at 520∘C, soaked for 6 hrs, and immediately quenched at ambient temperature in a trough containing water to assume a supersaturated structure. The quenched specimens were then thermally aged at 175∘C for 3–7 hrs. Results show that at different ageing time, varied fractions of precipitates and intermetallics evolved in the specimens’ matrices which affect the resulting mechanical properties. The metal mould specimens aged for four hours (MTA-4 exhibited superior ultimate tensile strength of 247.8 MPa; microhardness, 68.5 HV; elongation, 28.2% . It is concluded that the extent of improvement in mechanical properties depends on the fractions, coherence, and distribution of precipitates along with the type of intermetallics developed in the alloy during ageing process.
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei-Chen Lee
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The current aging trends accompanying the increasing prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCCs and decreasing participation in physical activity (PA have swept the United States. In light of the magnitude of this phenomenon, this study seeks to identify the most common MCC combinations and their relationships with PA level. A cross-sectional study, Brazos Valley Health Assessment, was conducted between October 2009 and July 2010. All data analyses were performed by STATA 12.0. The overall sample which met the inclusion criteria is 2,603. Among people older than 45 years, chronic conditions of cardiovascular, endocrine, and musculoskeletal systems were the most prevalent. Participants with three chronic conditions were less likely to meet the PA standard than those with only two chronic conditions. Younger age, women, rural residence, and unsafe environments were related to the lower PA level. After adjusting for seven covariates, all MCCs combinations adversely affect the level of PA (, . People with MCCs were among the least active subgroups despite the health benefits of doing exercise. Given the well-documented benefits of physical activity for delaying the onset or progression of MCCs, public health efforts to enhance regular PA in middle-aged and older adults are recommended.
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to charac......An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.
Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D
2016-01-13
A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.
Soofbaf, M; Nouri, G; Goldansaz, S H; Asghari-Zakaria, R
2007-09-01
The sexual calling behaviour of Ectomyelois ceratoniae, (zell.) was observed in the laboratory under 16L: 8D photoperiodic regime and three different constant temperatures, 20, 25 and 30 degrees C. E. ceratoniae, females showed a broad late-scotophase peak of calling activity without any calling throughout the photophase. Most females started calling during the eclosion day on, regardless of the temperature. With increasing age, moths initiated calling significantly earlier at night and the mean time spent calling increased significantly on successive days of calling. There was an inverse relationship between mean time spent calling and mean onset time of calling (r = -0.8079, p < 0.0001) and these parameters significantly affected by age and square of temperature.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Razvan Deju
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The paper analyzes some new hematological data on the European bison from the Natural Park of Vanatori Neamt, a comparison being made both between the values recorded in animals of different ages (2-8 years and sexes, and between the values of the European bison and those registered in some kindred ruminant mammals, such as the deer and the cow. More than that, a comparison is made between the data taken over from healthy bisons and from an animal affected by severe anemia and multiple parasitary indices. Hematological prosperity increases with the age in female bisons, while a decrease is reported in males, especially in the case of suffering animals, versus the healthy ones. Comparatively with other big mammals, the hematological profile of the bison is much more similar to that of domestic ruminants, being wholly different from that of the wild deer.
Qian, Jiahui; Ren, Xiaohui
2016-08-01
Hypertension usually coexists with other chronic conditions and can cause disability in relation to activities of daily living. We examined the association between the number and categories of comorbid conditions and disability affecting activities of daily living in hypertension patients.The data were collected from the 2013 follow-up survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which contains information about chronic conditions and disability. Additionally, socio-demographic characteristics of 3754 hypertension patients aged 45 and older were included in this study. Comorbid conditions included dyslipidemia, stroke, and 12 other chronic conditions. Disability in relation to activities of daily living was assessed using the basic activities of daily living (BADL) and the instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) instruments. Differences in BADL/IADL disability among patients with different comorbid conditions were compared using the chi-square test, and the influence of chronic conditions and socio-demographic characteristics on BADL/IADL disability was analyzed using logistic models.Without considering the influence of specific chronic conditions on BADL/IADL, hypertension patients with additional comorbid conditions were more likely to suffer from BADL/IADL disability. When considering the effect of specific chronic conditions, the number of comorbid conditions did not significantly influence BADL/IADL disability. Dyslipidemia, chronic lung disease, stroke, memory-related diseases, and arthritis/rheumatism were associated with BADL disability. Chronic lung diseases, heart diseases, stroke, stomach/digestive system diseases, emotional/nervous/psychiatric problems, memory-related diseases, arthritis/rheumatism, and asthma were associated with IADL disability. Additionally, female, people with lower education level, people living in village, and people living in middle and western China were more likely suffer from BADL
Poole, Rachel L; Braak, David; Gould, Thomas J
2016-02-01
Chronic caffeine exerts negligible effects on learning and memory in normal adults, but it is unknown whether this is also true for children and adolescents. The hippocampus, a brain region important for learning and memory, undergoes extensive structural and functional modifications during pre-adolescence and adolescence. As a result, chronic caffeine may have differential effects on hippocampus-dependent learning in pre-adolescents and adolescents compared with adults. Here, we characterized the effects of chronic caffeine and withdrawal from chronic caffeine on hippocampus-dependent (contextual) and hippocampus-independent (cued) fear conditioning in pre-adolescent, adolescent, and adult mice. The results indicate that chronic exposure to caffeine during pre-adolescence and adolescence enhances or impairs contextual conditioning depending on concentration, yet has no effect on cued conditioning. In contrast, withdrawal from chronic caffeine impairs contextual conditioning in pre-adolescent mice only. No changes in learning were seen for adult mice for either the chronic caffeine or withdrawal conditions. These findings support the hypothesis that chronic exposure to caffeine during pre-adolescence and adolescence can alter learning and memory and as changes were only seen in hippocampus-dependent learning, which suggests that the developing hippocampus may be sensitive to the effects of caffeine.
Boves, Than J.; Fairhurst, Graham D.; Rushing, Clark S.; Buehler, David A.
2016-01-01
In migratory species, breeding and non-breeding locations are geographically separate, yet the effects of conditions from one stage may carry over to affect a subsequent stage. Ideally, to understand the mechanisms and implications of ‘carry-over effects’, one would need to follow individuals throughout the year, quantify potential environmental causal factors and physiological mediators during multiple life-history stages, and measure downstream fitness. Owing to current limitations of tracking technology, this is impossible for small, long-distance migrants, so indirect methods to characterize carry-over effects are required. Corticosterone (CORT) is a suspected physiological mediator of carry-over effects, but when collected from blood it provides only a physiological snapshot at that point in time. When extracted from feathers, however, feather corticosterone (CORTf) provides a measure of responses to stressors from previous, and longer, time periods. We collected feathers grown during two life-history stages (post-breeding and subsequent wintering) from individuals of two age classes of a rapidly declining migratory songbird, the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), on their breeding grounds and quantified CORTf concentrations. We then monitored reproduction and survival of individuals and analysed relationships among CORTf and age, body condition and future fitness. Compared with older males, second-year males had higher CORTf concentrations during both stages. When controlling for age and year, body condition at capture was positively related to CORTf concentrations from winter (especially for older birds). However, we found no relationships between CORTf and fitness (as defined by reproduction and survival). Thus, elevated CORT may represent a beneficial physiological response (e.g. hyperphagia prior to migration), particularly for certain life-history stages, and may mediate the condition in which individuals transition between stages. But for those
Landau-Zener Probability Reviewed
Valencia, C
2008-01-01
We examine the survival probability for neutrino propagation through matter with variable density. We present a new method to calculate the level-crossing probability that differs from Landau's method by constant factor, which is relevant in the interpretation of neutrino flux from supernova explosion.
Understanding Students' Beliefs about Probability.
Konold, Clifford
The concept of probability is not an easy concept for high school and college students to understand. This paper identifies and analyzes the students' alternative frameworks from the viewpoint of constructivism. There are various interpretations of probability through mathematical history: classical, frequentist, and subjectivist interpretation.…
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...
Probability, Arrow of Time and Decoherence
Bacciagaluppi, G
2007-01-01
This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with probability can be justified in the context of no-collapse approaches to quantum mechanics. The standard (two-vector) approach to time symmetry in the decoherent histories literature is criticised, and an alternative approach is proposed, based on two decoherence conditions ('forwards' and 'backwards') within the one-vector formalism. In turn, considerations of forwards and backwards decoherence and of decoherence and recoherence suggest that a time-directed interpretation of probabilities, if adopted, should be both contingent and perspectival.
Intermediate Probability Theory for Biomedical Engineers
Enderle, John
2006-01-01
This is the second in a series of three short books on probability theory and random processes for biomedical engineers. This volume focuses on expectation, standard deviation, moments, and the characteristic function. In addition, conditional expectation, conditional moments and the conditional characteristic function are also discussed. Jointly distributed random variables are described, along with joint expectation, joint moments, and the joint characteristic function. Convolution is also developed. A considerable effort has been made to develop the theory in a logical manner--developing sp
Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LUO Jian-hua
2008-01-01
In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1993-11-01
This standard presents program criteria and implementation guidance for an operational configuration management program for DOE nuclear and non-nuclear facilities. This Part 2 includes chapters on implementation guidance for operational configuration management, implementation guidance for design reconstitution, and implementation guidance for material condition and aging management. Appendices are included on design control, examples of design information, conduct of walkdowns, and content of design information summaries.
Taillade, Mathieu; N'Kaoua, Bernard; Sauzéon, Hélène
2015-01-01
The present study investigated the effect of aging on direct navigation measures and self-reported ones according to the real-virtual test manipulation. Navigation (wayfinding tasks) and spatial memory (paper-pencil tasks) performances, obtained either in real-world or in virtual-laboratory test conditions, were compared between young (n = 32) and older (n = 32) adults who had self-rated their everyday navigation behavior (SBSOD scale). Real age-related differences were observed in navigation tasks as well as in paper-pencil tasks, which investigated spatial learning relative to the distinction between survey-route knowledge. The manipulation of test conditions (real vs. virtual) did not change these age-related differences, which are mostly explained by age-related decline in both spatial abilities and executive functioning (measured with neuropsychological tests). In contrast, elderly adults did not differ from young adults in their self-reporting relative to everyday navigation, suggesting some underestimation of navigation difficulties by elderly adults. Also, spatial abilities in young participants had a mediating effect on the relations between actual and self-reported navigation performance, but not for older participants. So, it is assumed that the older adults carried out the navigation task with fewer available spatial abilities compared to young adults, resulting in inaccurate self-estimates.
Taillade, Mathieu; N'Kaoua, Bernard; Sauzéon, Hélène
2016-01-01
The present study investigated the effect of aging on direct navigation measures and self-reported ones according to the real-virtual test manipulation. Navigation (wayfinding tasks) and spatial memory (paper-pencil tasks) performances, obtained either in real-world or in virtual-laboratory test conditions, were compared between young (n = 32) and older (n = 32) adults who had self-rated their everyday navigation behavior (SBSOD scale). Real age-related differences were observed in navigation tasks as well as in paper-pencil tasks, which investigated spatial learning relative to the distinction between survey-route knowledge. The manipulation of test conditions (real vs. virtual) did not change these age-related differences, which are mostly explained by age-related decline in both spatial abilities and executive functioning (measured with neuropsychological tests). In contrast, elderly adults did not differ from young adults in their self-reporting relative to everyday navigation, suggesting some underestimation of navigation difficulties by elderly adults. Also, spatial abilities in young participants had a mediating effect on the relations between actual and self-reported navigation performance, but not for older participants. So, it is assumed that the older adults carried out the navigation task with fewer available spatial abilities compared to young adults, resulting in inaccurate self-estimates. PMID:26834666
Clark, Hallie; Feng, Jing
2016-09-26
High-level vehicle automation has been proposed as a valuable means to enhance the mobility of older drivers, as older drivers experience age-related declines in many cognitive functions that are vital for safe driving. Recent research attempted to examine age differences in how engagement in non-driving-related activities impact driving performance, by instructing drivers to engage in mandatory pre-designed activities. While the mandatory engagement method allows a precise control of the timing and mental workload of the non-driving-related activities, it is different from how a driver would naturally engage in these activities. This study allowed younger (age 18-35, mean age=19.9years) and older drivers (age 62-81, mean age=70.4years) to freely decide when and how to engage in voluntarily chosen non-driving-related activities during simulated driving with conditional automation. We coded video recordings of participants' engagement in non-driving-related activities. We examined the effect of age, level of activity-engagement and takeover notification interval on vehicle control performance during the takeover, by comparing between the high and low engagement groups in younger and older drivers, across two takeover notification interval conditions. We found that both younger and older drivers engaged in various non-driving-related activities during the automated driving portion, with distinct preferences on the type of activity for each age group (i.e., while younger drivers mostly used an electronic device, older drivers tended to converse). There were also significant differences between the two age groups and between the two notification intervals on various driving performance measures. Older drivers benefited more than younger drivers from the longer interval in terms of response time to notifications. Voluntary engagement in non-driving-related activities did not impair takeover performance in general, although there was a trend of older drivers who were
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2005-01-01
People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.
Alexander, Jennifer; Barham, Philip; Black, Ian
2002-11-01
Using data generated from a fixed-base interactive driving simulator, which was used to evaluate a driver decision aid, a model is built to predict the probability of an incident (i.e. an accident or a 'near miss') occurring as a result of a right-turn across left-hand traffic at an unsignalised junction. This can be considered to be the product of two separate probabilities, the first being the probability that the gap between a pair of vehicles in the traffic stream is accepted, and the second the probability that the time needed to cross the on-coming stream of traffic causes the time-to-collision with the nearest vehicle in this traffic stream to be less than a second. The model is developed from the results of experimental trials involving a sample of drivers, the majority of whom were aged 60 years or older, in order to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on these probabilities. The parameters considered include the size of the gap between successive vehicles, vehicle characteristics such as size, colour and velocity, driver characteristics such as age and sex, and both daytime and night-time conditions.
Calculation Model and Simulation of Warship Damage Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
TENG Zhao-xin; ZHANG Xu; YANG Shi-xing; ZHU Xiao-ping
2008-01-01
The combat efficiency of mine obstacle is the focus of the present research. Based on the main effects that mine obstacle has on the target warship damage probability such as: features of mines with maneuverability, the success rate of mine-laying, the hit probability, mine reliability and action probability, a calculation model of target warship mine-encounter probability is put forward under the condition that the route selection of target warships accords with even distribution and the course of target warships accords with normal distribution. And a damage probability model of mines with maneuverability to target warships is set up, a simulation way proved the model to be a high practicality.
Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Musick, R.
1996-03-01
Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rote learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neural networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Bhupendra Singh; Rajendra Yadav; B.P.Bhatt
2011-01-01
Dalbergia sissoo Roxb. is one of the promising multipurpose tree species of South Asia. Most of the plantations of D. sissoo from seeds are facing severe threats due to the die-back disease, which ultimately causes death of this potential tree-species within a few months.Vegetative propagation could avoid the die-back disease. Thirty mother trees of different age-groups of D. sissoo were selected for evaluating the rooting behaviour of branch cuttings from D. sissoo as influenced by auxins (1AA or IBA at 100, 200, 500 mg.L-1), ages of mother trees (10, 4 and 2 years old) and different environment conditions, i.e., different mediums (soil and sand) or light conditions (in shade and open condition). The results show that application of IAA and IBA induced more numbers of cuttings (collected from 10-year-old mother trees) to root compared to control. Branch cuttings of D. sissoo collected from 10-year-old mother trees and planted in soil bed in open conditions had 100.0％ of cuttings to root in IAA (100 mg.L-1) and IBA (200 mg.L-1) treatments. Both rooting medium (Soil and sand) influenced significantly (p＜0.05) on rooting response of branch cuttings. Soil medium was found to achieve maximum no. of branch cuttings to root, compared to sand medium.
Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.
Bousso, Raphael
2006-11-10
In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.
Probability Ranking in Vector Spaces
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The Probability Ranking Principle states that the document set with the highest values of probability of relevance optimizes information retrieval effectiveness given the probabilities are estimated as accurately as possible. The key point of the principle is the separation of the document set into two subsets with a given level of fallout and with the highest recall. The paper introduces the separation between two vector subspaces and shows that the separation yields a more effective performance than the optimal separation into subsets with the same available evidence, the performance being measured with recall and fallout. The result is proved mathematically and exemplified experimentally.
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
Local Causality, Probability and Explanation
Healey, Richard A
2016-01-01
In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantum mechanics is applied to account for the particular correlations Bell argues are locally inexplicable. This account involves no superluminal action and there is even a sense in which it is local, but it is in tension with the requirement that the direct causes and effects of events are nearby.
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.
2007-01-01
Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.
Ichihashi, Yukiko; Saito, Naonori; Arakawa, Yoko; Kurata, Chika; Iinuma, Mitsuo; Tamura, Yasuo; Iwaku, Fumihiko; Kubo, Kin-Ya
2008-02-01
In the present study, we examined whether the effects induced by the bite-raised condition on glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression differ between the dorsal and ventral hippocampus in SAMP8 mice. In the bite-raised condition, the number of GR-immunoreactive cells was significantly decreased in both the dorsal and ventral CA1 and dentate gyrus (DG) subfields of the hippocampus compared to control mice, as revealed by immunohistochemical analysis. The decrease in the number of GR-immunoreactive cells tended to be greater in the dorsal hippocampus than in the ventral hippocampus. Only in the DG subfield was there a significant difference in the number of GR-immunoreactive cells between the dorsal and ventral hippocampus. These findings suggest that in aged SAMP8 mice, the bite-raised condition decreases the number of GR-immunoreactive cells in both the dorsal and ventral hippocampus.
Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings
Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah
2015-12-01
The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.
Probability representation of classical states
Man'ko, OV; Man'ko, [No Value; Pilyavets, OV
2005-01-01
Probability representation of classical states described by symplectic tomograms is discussed. Tomographic symbols of classical observables which are functions on phase-space are studied. Explicit form of kernel of commutative star-product of the tomographic symbols is obtained.
The probabilities of unique events.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sangeet S Khemlani
Full Text Available Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable.
Diurnal distribution of sunshine probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aydinli, S.
1982-01-01
The diurnal distribution of the sunshine probability is essential for the predetermination of average irradiances and illuminances by solar radiation on sloping surfaces. The most meteorological stations have only monthly average values of the sunshine duration available. It is, therefore, necessary to compute the diurnal distribution of sunshine probability starting from the average monthly values. It is shown how the symmetric component of the distribution of the sunshine probability which is a consequence of a ''sidescene effect'' of the clouds can be calculated. The asymmetric components of the sunshine probability depending on the location and the seasons and their influence on the predetermination of the global radiation are investigated and discussed.
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
de Barros, J Acacio
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Three lectures on free probability
2012-01-01
These are notes from a three-lecture mini-course on free probability given at MSRI in the Fall of 2010 and repeated a year later at Harvard. The lectures were aimed at mathematicians and mathematical physicists working in combinatorics, probability, and random matrix theory. The first lecture was a staged rediscovery of free independence from first principles, the second dealt with the additive calculus of free random variables, and the third focused on random matrix models.
47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.
2010-10-01
... Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be... determine their new intermediate probabilities. (g) Multiply each applicant's probability pursuant...
Cabanillas, Rubén; Cadiñanos, Juan; Villameytide, José A F; Pérez, Mercedes; Longo, Jesús; Richard, José M; Alvarez, Rebeca; Durán, Noelia S; Illán, Rafael; González, Daniel J; López-Otín, Carlos
2011-11-01
Progeria syndromes are rare disorders that involve premature aging. Mutations in BANF1 have been recently reported to cause a new hereditary progeroid syndrome that we now propose to call the Néstor-Guillermo progeria syndrome (NGPS). We describe herein the clinical features of the first two NGPS patients, who phenocopy features of classic progerias (i.e., Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome or mandibuloacral dysplasia), such as aged appearance, growth retardation, decreased subcutaneous fat, thin limbs, and stiff joints. However, these NGPS patients have a distinctive phenotype. In their early adulthood (32 and 24 years of age), they have no signs of cardiovascular impairment, diabetes mellitus, or hypertriglyceridemia. In contrast, they suffer profound skeletal abnormalities that affect their quality of life. The observed differences are of utmost importance to patients and their families and palliation of osseous manifestations is a priority, given their relatively long lifespan. We define NGPS as a chronic progeria because of its slow clinical course and relatively long survival, despite its early onset. Understanding the differences between progeria syndromes might contribute to the development of treatment strategies for common skeletal conditions, as well as aging itself.
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Lihong
2005-01-01
Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.
Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance
Rosenkrantz, Walter A
2008-01-01
Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohd Khalid
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Background: The aims of this study have been elaborated below: (1 to enumerate the common causes of acute abdominal emergencies by ultrasonography in paediatric patients; (2 to establish the diagnostic efficacy of ultrasonography in evaluation of acute abdominal conditions in children and to illustrate the associated ultrasonographic findings; (3 and, to discuss the role of ultrasonography in guiding the mode of intervention in these cases. Patients and Methods: This prospective study of ultrasonographic examination in 146 paediatric patients presenting with acute onset abdominal pain at the emergency/paediatric outpatient department section of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College & Hospital, Aligarh, between June 2006 and December 2007, using 3.75 MHz and 8 MHz transducers of the ADARA (Siemens machine. Results : Common causes of acute abdominal emergencies in pediatric patients as noted on ultrasonography included nonspecific pain (28%, abdominal abscess (21%, acute appendicitis (7% and intussusception (7%. Ultrasonography was diagnostic in 45.2% cases and supportive in 12.3% of the cases. As for as the final outcome, ultrasonography prevented surgery in almost 20% cases and laparotomy was avoided in 7% of the patients as ultrasound guided interventions in the form of abscess aspiration were carried out. Conclusion: Ultrasonography evaluation of children with acute abdominal pain, helps in making significant changes in the management plan of the patients, and also reveals various clinically unsuspected diseases.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Đonović Nela
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction. Scoliosis, a lateral curvature of the spine, is the most frequent deformity of the spinal column. It is additionally aggravated by the inadequate environmental conditions in schools, such as unadjusted furniture, teaching aids and most of all, school bag and bad lighting. Material and methods. This investigation was carried out during the years 2005 and 2006 on the territory of the city of Kragujevac and included school children attending 22 primary and 8 secondary schools, whose medical records were obtained from school children health centres, the counseling centre for scoliosis at the Orthopedic Department of the Hospital in Kragujevac and the Institute of Public Health in Kragujevac. Results. The statistical analysis of these data showed that a significantly higher number of children with scoliosis was detected in 2005, being χ²=11.6, p<0.01 for primary schools. Scoliosis was more frequent in girls than in boys: in 2005 it was χ²=10.54, p<0.01 and in 2006 χ²=10.72, p<0.01 in primary schools, whereas no difference was found in secondary schools in 2005 -c2=4.14, p>0.05, but in 2006 scoliosis was more frequent in girls χ²=49.51, p<0.01. Conclusion. Scoliosis is extremely important in both primary and secondary schools and therefore, it is necessary to intensify preventive systematic examinations of school children.
Cluster Membership Probability: Polarimetric Approach
Medhi, Biman J
2013-01-01
Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper-motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q(%) and u(%) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the ...
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Horgan, R P
2012-01-31
Being born small for gestational age (SGA) confers significantly increased risks of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Accumulating evidence suggests that an SGA fetus results from a poorly perfused and abnormally developed placenta. Some of the placental features seen in SGA, such as abnormal cell turnover and impaired nutrient transport, can be reproduced by culture of placental explants in hypoxic conditions. Metabolic footprinting offers a hypothesis-generating strategy to investigate factors absorbed by and released from this tissue in vitro. Previously, metabolic footprinting of the conditioned culture media has identified differences in placental explants cultured under normoxic and hypoxic conditions and between normal pregnancies and those complicated by pre-eclampsia. In this study we aimed to examine the differences in the metabolic footprint of placental villous explants cultured at different oxygen (O(2)) tensions between women who deliver an SGA baby (n = 9) and those from normal controls (n = 8). Placental villous explants from cases and controls were cultured for 96 h in 1% (hypoxic), 6% (normoxic) and 20% (hyperoxic) O(2). Metabolic footprints were analysed by Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled to an electrospray hybrid LTQ-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS). 574 metabolite features showed significant difference between SGA and normal at one or more of the oxygen tensions. SGA explant media cultured under hypoxic conditions was observed, on a univariate level, to exhibit the same metabolic signature as controls cultured under normoxic conditions in 49% of the metabolites of interest, suggesting that SGA tissue is acclimatised to hypoxic conditions in vivo. No such behaviour was observed under hyperoxic culture conditions. Glycerophospholipid and tryptophan metabolism were highlighted as areas of particular interest.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Approximation methods in probability theory
Čekanavičius, Vydas
2016-01-01
This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.
Detonation probabilities of high explosives
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.
1995-07-01
The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.
Probability on real Lie algebras
Franz, Uwe
2016-01-01
This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.
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Brown, Jason [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernstein, Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); White, II, Gregory Von [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Glover, Steven F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pena, Gary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Kenneth Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zutavern, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gelbard, Fred [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-03-01
In a submerged environment, power cables may experience accelerated insulation degradation due to water - related aging mechanisms . Direct contact with water or moisture intrusion in the cable insulation s ystem has been identified in the literature as a significant aging stressor that can affect performance and lifetime of electric cables . Progressive reduction of the dielectric strength is commonly a result of water treeing which involves the development of permanent hydrophilic structures in the insulation coinciding with the absorption of water into the cable . Water treeing is a phenomenon in which dendritic microvoids are formed in electric cable insulation due to electrochemic al reactions , electromechanical forces , and diffusion of contaminants over time . These reactions are caused by the combined effect s of water presence and high electrical stress es in the material . Water tree growth follow s a tree - like branching pattern , i ncreasing in volume and length over time . Although these cables can be "dried out," water tree degradation , specifically the growth of hydrophilic regions, is believed to be permanent and typically worsens over time. Based on established research , water treeing or water induced damage can occur in a variety of electric cables including XLPE, TR - XLPE and other insulating materials, such as EPR and butyl rubber . Once water trees or water induced damage form, the dielectric strength of an insulation materia l will decrease gradually with time as the water trees grow in length, which could eventually result in failure of the insulating material . Under wet conditions or i n submerged environments , several environmental and operational parameters can influence w ater tree initiation and affect water tree growth . These parameters include voltage cycling, field frequency, temperature, ion concentration and chemistry, type of insula tion material , and the characteristics of its defects. In this effort, a review of academic
Reynolds, E E; Freeman, J W; White, A E
1951-01-01
The influence of systematic variations of chemical composition on rupture properties at 1200 degrees F. was determined for 62 modifications of a basic alloy containing 20 percent chromium, 20 percent nickel, 20 percent cobalt, 3 percent molybdenum, 2 percent tungsten, 1 percent columbium, 0.15 percent carbon, 1.7 percent manganese, 0.5 percent silicon, 0.12 percent nitrogen and the balance iron. These modifications included individual variations of each of 10 elements present and simultaneous variations of molybdenum, tungsten, and columbium. Laboratory induction furnace heats were hot-forged to round bar stock, solution-treated at 2200 degrees F., and aged at 1400 degrees F. The melting and fabrication conditions were carefully controlled in order to minimize all variable effects on properties except chemical composition. Information is presented which indicates that melting and hot-working conditions play an important role in high-temperature properties of alloys of the type investigated.
Kwee-Meier, Sonja Th; Mertens, Alexander; Schlick, Christopher M
2017-03-01
This age-differentiated study investigated preferences for new digital, situation-adaptive escape route signage with informative and flashing elements under simulated emergency conditions of tilted passenger ships. The decision-making behaviour of 26 young (20-30 years) and 26 elderly (60-77 years) participants was observed in four conditions varying in applied stressors and in level versus uphill walking at 7° and 14°. In line with previous studies, decisions of young participants were significantly influenced by flashing elements on signs. In contrast, elderly participants based their decisions significantly stronger on integrated information about the sign's updatedness and reported irritation by flashing elements. These preferences were also persistent under increased mental, emotional and physical strain, evaluated by ratings and (psycho-)physiological measures. The findings demonstrate the importance to carefully design digital, situation-adaptive signage for passenger ships in a way that it not only attracts attention but also inspires trust especially for the elderly population.
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
A quantum probability model of causal reasoning.
Trueblood, Jennifer S; Busemeyer, Jerome R
2012-01-01
People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.
A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning
Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.
2012-01-01
People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747
A quantum probability model of causal reasoning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jennifer S Trueblood
2012-05-01
Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Denham, M.; Millings, M.
2012-08-28
This document provides information specific to H-Area waste tanks that enables a flow and transport model with limited chemical capabilities to account for varying waste release from the tanks through time. The basis for varying waste release is solubilities of radionuclides that change as pore fluids passing through the waste change in composition. Pore fluid compositions in various stages were generated by simulations of tank grout degradation. The first part of the document describes simulations of the degradation of the reducing grout in post-closure tanks. These simulations assume flow is predominantly through a water saturated porous medium. The infiltrating fluid that reacts with the grout is assumed to be fluid that has passed through the closure cap and into the tank. The results are three stages of degradation referred to as Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. A reaction path model was used so that the transitions between each stage are noted by numbers of pore volumes of infiltrating fluid reacted. The number of pore volumes to each transition can then be converted to time within a flow and transport model. The bottoms of some tanks in H-Area are below the water table requiring a different conceptual model for grout degradation. For these simulations the reacting fluid was assumed to be 10% infiltrate through the closure cap and 90% groundwater. These simulations produce an additional four pore fluid compositions referred to as Conditions A through D and were intended to simulate varying degrees of groundwater influence. The most probable degradation path for the submerged tanks is Condition C to Condition D to Oxidized Region III and eventually to Condition A. Solubilities for Condition A are estimated in the text for use in sensitivity analyses if needed. However, the grout degradation simulations did not include sufficient pore volumes of infiltrating fluid for the grout to evolve to Condition A. Solubility controls for use
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mar Comas
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Host traits can significantly influence patterns of infection and disease. Here, we studied the helminths parasitizing the Italian edible frog Pelophylax kl. hispanicus, giving special attention to the relationship between parasites and host traits such as sex, snout vent length, weight and body condition. The helminth community was composed of seven species: three trematode species (Diplodiscus subclavatus, Gorgodera cygnoides, Pleurogenes claviger, three nematode species (Icosiella neglecta, Oswaldocruzia filiformis, Rhabdias sp. and one acanthocephalan species (Pomphorhychus laevis. We found that prevalence was positively correlated with snout-vent length and weight, but did not differ with body condition or sex. We found that prevalence and mean species richness increased with age. Our results show that abundance of Icosiella neglecta was positively correlated with higher values for host body condition. In fact, we found that high prevalence and mean species richness do not necessarily imply poorer body condition in the parasitized host. In conclusion, our results show that the helminth community in this taxon has great diversity, and this host-parasite system seems to be evolved to low levels of virulence, helminths maintaining a commensal relationship with this frog.
Maw Maw Win; Enami, Masaki; Kato, Takenori
2016-03-01
The high temperature (T)/pressure (P) regional Mogok metamorphic belt is situated in central Myanmar, and is mainly composed of pelitic gneisses, amphibolites, marbles, and calc-silicate rocks. The garnet-biotite-plagioclase-sillimanite-quartz assemblage and its partial system suggest equilibrium P/T conditions of 0.6-1.0 GPa/780-850 °C for the peak metamorphic stage, and 0.3-0.5 GPa/600-680 °C for the exhumation and hydration stage. Monazite grains show complex compositional zoning consisting of three segments-I, II, and III. Taking into consideration the monazite zoning and relative misfit curves, the calculated chemical Th-U-total Pb isochron method (CHIME) monazite age data (284 spot analyses) indicated four age components: 49.3 ± 2.6-49.9 ± 7.9, 37.8 ± 1.0-38.1 ± 1.7, 28.0 ± 0.8-28.8 ± 1.6, and 23.7 ± 1.3 Ma (2σ level). The ages of the Late Eocene and Late Oligocene epochs were interpreted as the peak metamorphic stage of upper-amphibolite and/or granulite facies and the postdated hydration stage, respectively.
Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kerstin Andersson
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The problem addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts of guessing a word of a certain length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations to a natural language are considered. The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses. Several kinds of approximations are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions. For many probability distributions, the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion of guesses needed on average compared to the total number decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems
Sun, Mingxuan; Lebanon, Guy; Kidwell, Paul
2010-01-01
Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computat...
A Novel Approach to Probability
Kafri, Oded
2016-01-01
When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...
Fuzzy Markov chains: uncertain probabilities
2002-01-01
We consider finite Markov chains where there are uncertainties in some of the transition probabilities. These uncertainties are modeled by fuzzy numbers. Using a restricted fuzzy matrix multiplication we investigate the properties of regular, and absorbing, fuzzy Markov chains and show that the basic properties of these classical Markov chains generalize to fuzzy Markov chains.
Comments on quantum probability theory.
Sloman, Steven
2014-01-01
Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.
Probability representations of fuzzy systems
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Hongxing
2006-01-01
In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.
Aging transition by random errors
Sun, Zhongkui; Ma, Ning; Xu, Wei
2017-02-01
In this paper, the effects of random errors on the oscillating behaviors have been studied theoretically and numerically in a prototypical coupled nonlinear oscillator. Two kinds of noises have been employed respectively to represent the measurement errors accompanied with the parameter specifying the distance from a Hopf bifurcation in the Stuart-Landau model. It has been demonstrated that when the random errors are uniform random noise, the change of the noise intensity can effectively increase the robustness of the system. While the random errors are normal random noise, the increasing of variance can also enhance the robustness of the system under certain conditions that the probability of aging transition occurs reaches a certain threshold. The opposite conclusion is obtained when the probability is less than the threshold. These findings provide an alternative candidate to control the critical value of aging transition in coupled oscillator system, which is composed of the active oscillators and inactive oscillators in practice.
Aging transition by random errors
Sun, Zhongkui; Ma, Ning; Xu, Wei
2017-01-01
In this paper, the effects of random errors on the oscillating behaviors have been studied theoretically and numerically in a prototypical coupled nonlinear oscillator. Two kinds of noises have been employed respectively to represent the measurement errors accompanied with the parameter specifying the distance from a Hopf bifurcation in the Stuart-Landau model. It has been demonstrated that when the random errors are uniform random noise, the change of the noise intensity can effectively increase the robustness of the system. While the random errors are normal random noise, the increasing of variance can also enhance the robustness of the system under certain conditions that the probability of aging transition occurs reaches a certain threshold. The opposite conclusion is obtained when the probability is less than the threshold. These findings provide an alternative candidate to control the critical value of aging transition in coupled oscillator system, which is composed of the active oscillators and inactive oscillators in practice. PMID:28198430
Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.
Brenner, Charles H
2014-01-01
The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of
Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.
1999-01-01
Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, Jason [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernstein, Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); White, II, Gregory Von [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Glover, Steven F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pena, Gary [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Kenneth Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Zutavern, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gelbard, Fred [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-03-01
In a submerged environment, power cables may experience accelerated insulation degradation due to water - related aging mechanisms . Direct contact with water or moisture intrusion in the cable insulation s ystem has been identified in the literature as a significant aging stressor that can affect performance and lifetime of electric cables . Progressive reduction of the dielectric strength is commonly a result of water treeing which involves the development of permanent hydrophilic structures in the insulation coinciding with the absorption of water into the cable . Water treeing is a phenomenon in which dendritic microvoids are formed in electric cable insulation due to electrochemic al reactions , electromechanical forces , and diffusion of contaminants over time . These reactions are caused by the combined effect s of water presence and high electrical stress es in the material . Water tree growth follow s a tree - like branching pattern , i ncreasing in volume and length over time . Although these cables can be "dried out," water tree degradation , specifically the growth of hydrophilic regions, is believed to be permanent and typically worsens over time. Based on established research , water treeing or water induced damage can occur in a variety of electric cables including XLPE, TR - XLPE and other insulating materials, such as EPR and butyl rubber . Once water trees or water induced damage form, the dielectric strength of an insulation materia l will decrease gradually with time as the water trees grow in length, which could eventually result in failure of the insulating material . Under wet conditions or i n submerged environments , several environmental and operational parameters can influence w ater tree initiation and affect water tree growth . These parameters include voltage cycling, field frequency, temperature, ion concentration and chemistry, type of insula tion material , and the characteristics of its defects. In this effort, a review of academic
Probability distributions for multimeric systems.
Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne
2016-01-01
We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.
Cluster pre-existence probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rajeswari, N.S.; Vijayaraghavan, K.R.; Balasubramaniam, M. [Bharathiar University, Department of Physics, Coimbatore (India)
2011-10-15
Pre-existence probability of the fragments for the complete binary spectrum of different systems such as {sup 56}Ni, {sup 116}Ba, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 256}Fm are calculated, from the overlapping part of the interaction potential using the WKB approximation. The role of reduced mass as well as the classical hydrodynamical mass in the WKB method is analysed. Within WKB, even for negative Q -value systems, the pre-existence probability is calculated. The calculations reveal rich structural information. The calculated results are compared with the values of preformed cluster model of Gupta and collaborators. The mass asymmetry motion is shown here for the first time as a part of relative separation motion. (orig.)
Large deviations and idempotent probability
Puhalskii, Anatolii
2001-01-01
In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...
Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2005-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundance, log epsilon = 1.00 +/- 0.03, from 26 lines. The spectra of three very metal-poor, neutron-capture-rich stars also have been analyzed, employing between 55 and 72 Sm II lines per star. The abundance ratios of Sm relative to other rare earth elements in these stars are in agreement, and are consistent with ratios expected from rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis (the r-process).
Knot probabilities in random diagrams
Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt
2016-10-01
We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning
2015-01-01
3–6] and they underlie mathematics , science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason - ing. However, individuals in the grip...Press 10 Nickerson, R. (2011) Mathematical Reasoning : Patterns, Problems, Conjectures, and Proofs, Taylor & Francis 11 Blanchette, E. and Richards, A...Logic, probability, and human reasoning P.N. Johnson-Laird1,2, Sangeet S. Khemlani3, and Geoffrey P. Goodwin4 1 Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
Probability and statistics: A reminder
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Clément Benoit
2013-07-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from “data analysis in experimental sciences” given in [1
Probability Measures on Groups IX
1989-01-01
The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.
Elemental mercury poisoning probably causes cortical myoclonus.
Ragothaman, Mona; Kulkarni, Girish; Ashraf, Valappil V; Pal, Pramod K; Chickabasavaiah, Yasha; Shankar, Susarla K; Govindappa, Srikanth S; Satishchandra, Parthasarthy; Muthane, Uday B
2007-10-15
Mercury toxicity causes postural tremors, commonly referred to as "mercurial tremors," and cerebellar dysfunction. A 23-year woman, 2 years after injecting herself with elemental mercury developed disabling generalized myoclonus and ataxia. Electrophysiological studies confirmed the myoclonus was probably of cortical origin. Her deficits progressed over 2 years and improved after subcutaneous mercury deposits at the injection site were surgically cleared. Myoclonus of cortical origin has never been described in mercury poisoning. It is important to ask patients presenting with jerks about exposure to elemental mercury even if they have a progressive illness, as it is a potentially reversible condition as in our patient.
Optimal Reinsurance with Heterogeneous Reference Probabilities
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Tim J. Boonen
2016-07-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang’s premium principle. The novel contribution is that we allow for heterogeneity in the beliefs regarding the underlying probability distribution. We characterize layer-reinsurance as an optimal reinsurance contract. Moreover, we characterize layer-reinsurance as optimal contracts when the insurer faces costs of holding regulatory capital. We illustrate this in cases where both firms use the Value-at-Risk or the conditional Value-at-Risk.
Objective probability and quantum fuzziness
Mohrhoff, U
2007-01-01
This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics in general and of a recent paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack in particular (quant-ph/0608190 v2). In this paper the Bayesian interpretation of Born probabilities is defended against what the authors call the "objective-preparations view". The fact that Caves et al. and the proponents of this view equally misconstrue the time dependence of quantum states, voids the arguments pressed by the former against the latter. After tracing the genealogy of this common error, I argue that the real oxymoron is not an unknown quantum state, as the Bayesians hold, but an unprepared quantum state. I further argue that the essential role of probability in quantum theory is to define and quantify an objective fuzziness. This, more than anything, legitimizes conjoining "objective" to "probability". The measurement problem is essentially the problem of finding a coherent way of thinking about this objective fuzziness, and about the supervenience of the ma...
不同气候条件下片烟醇化效果的研究%Impact of Different Climatic Conditions on Effect of Aging Tobacco Film
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
王健强; 屠乃美; 师金鸽; 王进录
2012-01-01
为研究陕西不同地域气候条件对烟叶醇化质量的影响,以陕南和陕北烟厂存放的云南曲靖、陕西商洛片烟为试验对象,从片烟外观、感官评吸、化学成分三个方面验证片烟醇化效果.结果表明:(1)在外观质量上,陕南醇化的片烟比陕北醇化的烟叶颜色转深明显,油润感好；(2)在感官评吸质量上,陕南醇化烟叶香气质、刺激性和杂气指标好于陕北醇化烟叶,香气量、浓度差异不明显,陕北醇化烟叶的劲头略大于陕南醇化烟叶.(3)化学成分上,陕南醇化烟叶总糖含量高于陕北醇化片烟,烟碱和氯元素含量低于陕北醇化烟叶,其他化学指标变化不明显.(4)试验表明在两年醇化期内陕南醇化片烟的质量整体上好于陕北醇化烟叶.%For the study on the aging tobacco impact of Shaanxi different regions and climatic conditions. The aging effect of strips was tested through appearance quality, sensory evaluation and chemical composition of both Yunan Qujing and Shannxi Shangluo, which were aged in Northern and Southern Shannxi cigarette factories, respectively. The results as follows; ①Compared with strips aged in Northern Shannxi (SNS) , those in Sourthem Shannxi (SSS) have better apperaanc quality with deeper color and better oily felling. ②As for the sensory evaluation quality, SSS have better aroma quality, weaker irritancy, less offensive odor and tar than SNS, while neither aroma quantity discrimination nor aroma concentration discrimination was significant ③SSS have higher total sugar content, lower nicotine and chlorine contents than SNS, while no significant diffirence of other chemical composition was detected. ④ As for this experiment, SSS have better quanlity than SNS in two - year aging period.
Empirical and Computational Tsunami Probability
Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lee, H. J.
2008-12-01
A key component in assessing the hazard posed by tsunamis is quantification of tsunami likelihood or probability. To determine tsunami probability, one needs to know the distribution of tsunami sizes and the distribution of inter-event times. Both empirical and computational methods can be used to determine these distributions. Empirical methods rely on an extensive tsunami catalog and hence, the historical data must be carefully analyzed to determine whether the catalog is complete for a given runup or wave height range. Where site-specific historical records are sparse, spatial binning techniques can be used to perform a regional, empirical analysis. Global and site-specific tsunami catalogs suggest that tsunami sizes are distributed according to a truncated or tapered power law and inter-event times are distributed according to an exponential distribution modified to account for clustering of events in time. Computational methods closely follow Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), where size and inter-event distributions are determined for tsunami sources, rather than tsunamis themselves as with empirical analysis. In comparison to PSHA, a critical difference in the computational approach to tsunami probabilities is the need to account for far-field sources. The three basic steps in computational analysis are (1) determination of parameter space for all potential sources (earthquakes, landslides, etc.), including size and inter-event distributions; (2) calculation of wave heights or runup at coastal locations, typically performed using numerical propagation models; and (3) aggregation of probabilities from all sources and incorporation of uncertainty. It is convenient to classify two different types of uncertainty: epistemic (or knowledge-based) and aleatory (or natural variability). Correspondingly, different methods have been traditionally used to incorporate uncertainty during aggregation, including logic trees and direct integration. Critical
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Breanna L. Riedel
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Nonforested habitats such as open fields and pastures have been considered unsuitable for desiccation-prone woodland salamanders such as the Eastern Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus. Recent research has suggested that Plethodon cinereus may not only disperse across but also reside within open habitats including fields, meadows, and pastures. However, presence and high densities of P. cinereus within agriculturally disturbed habitats may be misleading if these populations exhibit atypical demographic characteristics or decreased physical condition relative to forest populations. We surveyed artificial cover boards from 2004-2005 to compare physical condition, sex ratios, and age-class structure of P. cinereus among woodland, woodland-meadow edge, silvopasture, and meadow sites in the central Appalachian Mountains of southern West Virginia. Physical condition of salamanders was not significantly different among the four habitats. Furthermore, adult sex ratios of P. cinereus typically were not significantly different from 1 : 1 and were similar between forested and non-forested sites, although populations within silvopastures were biased towards females. However, adult salamanders were significantly more abundant than juveniles in all habitat types, with differences most pronounced within meadow habitats. Our study indicates that relatively small, non-forested habitats such as silvopastures and meadows may not adversely affect the overall physical condition or sex ratios of Plethodon cinereus. However, the paucity of juveniles within disturbed meadows indicates that these agriculturally modified habitats may negatively impact reproduction or that immature salamanders are at a physiological or competitive disadvantage in comparison to adults, particularly when surface cover is limited.
Mellon, R C; Kraemer, P J; Spear, N E
1991-10-01
Preweanling and adult rats were exposed to Pavlovian stimulus pairings with lights, tones, and light-tone compounds as conditional stimuli (CSs). Tone intensity was varied. As was found in previous studies using flavor CSs, odor CSs, or both, in which significant overshadowing or potentiation occurred to an element of a compound, overshadowing was less likely and potentiation more likely for preweanlings than for adults. Several experiments supported the view that these effects reflect an age-related difference in the controlling properties of stimuli: Young rats are more disposed to encode multimodal compounds on the basis of amodal intensity, whereas their elders are more likely to encode modality-specific properties of light and sound. Differential reinforcement in the presence of lights, tones, and light-tone compounds made preweanlings' stimulus selection appear more adultlike and may be a cause of development of intersensory function.
Barhoumi, A.; Leroy, G.; Duponchel, B.; Gest, J.; Guermazi, S.
2017-01-01
Transparent and conductive Al-doped ZnO (AZO) thin films were deposited on a glass substrate by direct current sputtering. In a previous study, we noted the influence of time on structural and electrical characteristics of films. In the present paper, the effect of a two-year aging under ambient conditions on the optical properties was investigated. A global improvement of the optical properties of AZO thin films was observed. The optical transmittance spectra revealed a high transmittance more than 90% in the Vis-NIR regions and a high absorption in the ultraviolet range. It is assumed that the crystallinity segregation leads to the decrease of optical scattering. The results from the optical measurements showed a reorganization of the structure leading to the degradation of the structural homogeneity. Nevertheless, the evolution of the figure of merit shows that Al-doped ZnO is a good candidate for the manufacturing and the commercialization of transparent conducting oxide devices.
Schilling, Oliver K; Wahl, Hans-Werner
2006-12-01
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) was used as a case model to longitudinally study adaptation in affective well-being under a prevalent chronic health condition. Measures of positive and negative affect, obtained at 5 subsequent measurement occasions with 3-month intervals in between, were analyzed in 90 older adults diagnosed with AMD. The authors proposed a pattern of adaptation that shows initial decline in affective well-being after disease outbreak, followed by a turnaround into a restorative phase of increase, implying nonlinear intraindividual trajectories, with changes substantially related to disease duration. Analysis was conducted by means of a nonlinear mixed models approach. Results confirmed the hypothesized adaptation pattern for positive affect but not for negative affect, which was found more stable across measurement occasions.
SureTrak Probability of Impact Display
Elliott, John
2012-01-01
The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Al Allam A. M.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the permanent deformation and aging conditions of BatuPahat soft clay–modified asphalt mixture, also called BatuPahat soft clay (BPSC particles; these particles are used in powder form as an additive to hot-mix asphalt mixture. In this experiment, five percentage compositions of BPSC (0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8% by weight of bitumen were used. A novel design was established to modify the hot-mix asphalt by using the Superpave method for each additive ratio. Several laboratory tests evaluating different properties, such as indirect tensile strength, resilient stiffness modulus, and dynamic creep, was conducted to assess the performance of the samples mixed through the Superpave method. In the resilient modulus test, fatigue and rutting resistance were reduced by the BPSC particles. The added BPSC particles increased the indirect tensile strength. Among the mixtures, 4% BPSC particles yielded the highest performance. In the dynamic creep test, 4% BPSC particles added to the unaged and short-term aged specimens also showed the highest performance. Based on these results, our conclusion is that the BPSC particles can alleviate the permanent deformation (rutting of roads.
The probability of young children understanding their teacher in everyday teaching situations
Bradley, John S.; Sato, Hiroshi
2005-04-01
This paper examines the probability of grades 1, 3, and 6 students understanding their teacher in a normal teaching activity. The results of speech intelligibility tests in 34 enclosed classrooms were analyzed to relate childrens' ability to understand speech to measured signal-to-noise ratios (as well as Speech Transmission Index and useful-to-detrimental sound ratios) for each age group. Measurements of speech and noise levels during a normal teaching activity were used to determine the distribution of signal-to-noise ratios in normal teaching situations. Combining these two sets of data shows that while 51% of the grade 6 students experienced near-to-ideal acoustical conditions only 9% of the grade 1 students had close-to-ideal conditions in these apparently good classrooms. Estimates of ideal goals for classroom signal-to-noise ratios for each age group will be presented. [Work supported by CLLRnet.
Probability for Weather and Climate
Smith, L. A.
2013-12-01
Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of
Methodology for assessing probability of extreme hydrologic events coincidence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prohaska Stevan
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of the presented research is improvement of methodology for probability calculation of coinciding occurrence of historic floods and droughts in the same year. The original procedure was developed in order to determine the occurrence probability of such an extreme historic event. There are two phases in calculation procedure for assessment of both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year. In the first phase outliers are detected as indicators of extreme events, their return periods are calculated and series' statistics adjusted. In the second phase conditional probabilities are calculated: empirical points are plotted, and both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year is assessed based on the plot. Outlier detection is performed for the territory of Serbia. Results are shown as maps of regions (basins prone to floods, hydrologic drought, or both. Step-by-step numeric example is given for assessing conditional probability of occurrence of flood and drought for GS Raska on the river Raska. Results of assessment of conditional probability in two more cases are given for combination of extreme flood and 30 day minimum flow.
PROBABILITY MODEL OF GUNTHER GENERATOR
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2007-01-01
This paper constructs the probability model of Gunther generator at first, and the finite dimension union distribution of the output sequence is presented. The result shows that the output sequence is an independent and uniformly distributed 0,1 random variable sequence.It gives the theoretical foundation about why Gunther generator can avoid the statistic weakness of the output sequence of stop-and-go generator, and analyzes the coincidence between output sequence and input sequences of Gunther generator. The conclusions of this paper would offer theoretical references for designers and analyzers of clock-controlled generators.
Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems
Sun, Mingxuan; Kidwell, Paul
2010-01-01
Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computation schemes using combinatorial properties of generating functions. We demonstrate our approach with several case studies involving real world movie recommendation data. The results are comparable with state-of-the-art techniques while also providing probabilistic preference estimates outside the scope of traditional recommender systems.
Probability, statistics, and computational science.
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane
2012-01-01
In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability
Parker, Bradford H.
2008-01-01
The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.
Klausner, S C; Schwartz, A B
1985-02-01
Pathologic studies of the myocardium and valvular structures have failed to provide convincing evidence of gross or microscopic changes that can be ascribed to aging alone. Lipofuscin accumulation and basophilic degeneration in cardiac muscle cells appear to be the most consistent findings associated with aging, but they are found in other conditions. Without doubt, pathologic changes in the myocardium, valves, and coronary arteries are found more frequently in the hearts of elderly persons, but those changes are caused by disease processes associated with an aging population rather than the aging process itself. Both the sinus and atrioventricular nodes decrease in size with age owing to a loss of cellularity. These structures become infiltrated with collagen, elastic tissue, and reticular fibers. Some have found infiltration also with fat. Amyloid deposition, basophilic degeneration of cells, and lipofuscin accumulation occur but probably do not cause functional abnormalities. Similar but less dramatic changes occur in the bundle of His and individual bundle branches. Most of the data suggests that these aging changes are not due to vascular insufficiency. Age-related changes in intrinsic mechanical function have been identified as a prolongation of contraction duration, decreased inotropic responses to catecholamines and cardiac glycosides, and an increase in mechanical refractoriness. Other possible age-related changes include alterations in relaxation, which may or may not be independent of the prolongation of contraction, and changes in the viscoelastic properties of cardiac muscle. When examined in the context of the components of a model of excitation-contraction coupling, changes in action potential duration and the function of the sarcoplasmic reticulum emerge as the most likely bases for the changes. The electrical characteristics of sinus, atrioventricular, and His-Purkinje cells as well as atrial and ventricular muscle cells change with age. The sinus
Probability distributions with summary graph structure
Wermuth, Nanny
2010-01-01
A set of independence statements may define the independence structure of interest in a family of joint probability distributions. This structure is often captured by a graph that consists of nodes representing the random variables and of edges that couple node pairs. One important class are multivariate regression chain graphs. They describe the independences of stepwise processes, in which at each step single or joint responses are generated given the relevant explanatory variables in their past. For joint densities that then result after possible marginalising or conditioning, we use summary graphs. These graphs reflect the independence structure implied by the generating process for the reduced set of variables and they preserve the implied independences after additional marginalising and conditioning. They can identify generating dependences which remain unchanged and alert to possibly severe distortions due to direct and indirect confounding. Operators for matrix representations of graphs are used to de...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Burkart Katrin
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality exhibits seasonal variations, which to a certain extent can be considered as mid-to long-term influences of meteorological conditions. In addition to atmospheric effects, the seasonal pattern of mortality is shaped by non-atmospheric determinants such as environmental conditions or socioeconomic status. Understanding the influence of season and other factors is essential when seeking to implement effective public health measures. The pressures of climate change make an understanding of the interdependencies between season, climate and health especially important. Methods This study investigated daily death counts collected within the Sample Vital Registration System (VSRS established by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS. The sample was stratified by location (urban vs. rural, gender and socioeconomic status. Furthermore, seasonality was analyzed for all-cause mortality, and several cause-specific mortalities. Daily deviation from average mortality was calculated and seasonal fluctuations were elaborated using non parametric spline smoothing. A seasonality index for each year of life was calculated in order to assess the age-dependency of seasonal effects. Results We found distinctive seasonal variations of mortality with generally higher levels during the cold season. To some extent, a rudimentary secondary summer maximum could be observed. The degree and shape of seasonality changed with the cause of death as well as with location, gender, and SES and was strongly age-dependent. Urban areas were seen to be facing an increased summer mortality peak, particularly in terms of cardiovascular mortality. Generally, children and the elderly faced stronger seasonal effects than youths and young adults. Conclusion This study clearly demonstrated the complex and dynamic nature of seasonal impacts on mortality. The modifying effect of spatial and population characteristics were highlighted. While tropical regions have
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger
2010-01-01
The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Denham, M.; Millings, M.
2012-08-28
This document provides information specific to H-Area waste tanks that enables a flow and transport model with limited chemical capabilities to account for varying waste release from the tanks through time. The basis for varying waste release is solubilities of radionuclides that change as pore fluids passing through the waste change in composition. Pore fluid compositions in various stages were generated by simulations of tank grout degradation. The first part of the document describes simulations of the degradation of the reducing grout in post-closure tanks. These simulations assume flow is predominantly through a water saturated porous medium. The infiltrating fluid that reacts with the grout is assumed to be fluid that has passed through the closure cap and into the tank. The results are three stages of degradation referred to as Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. A reaction path model was used so that the transitions between each stage are noted by numbers of pore volumes of infiltrating fluid reacted. The number of pore volumes to each transition can then be converted to time within a flow and transport model. The bottoms of some tanks in H-Area are below the water table requiring a different conceptual model for grout degradation. For these simulations the reacting fluid was assumed to be 10% infiltrate through the closure cap and 90% groundwater. These simulations produce an additional four pore fluid compositions referred to as Conditions A through D and were intended to simulate varying degrees of groundwater influence. The most probable degradation path for the submerged tanks is Condition C to Condition D to Oxidized Region III and eventually to Condition A. Solubilities for Condition A are estimated in the text for use in sensitivity analyses if needed. However, the grout degradation simulations did not include sufficient pore volumes of infiltrating fluid for the grout to evolve to Condition A. Solubility controls for use
Hf Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Labby, Z E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J; Ivans, I I
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements, accurate to about +/- 5 percent, are reported for 41 odd-parity levels of Hf II. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 150 lines of Hf II. Approximately half of these new transition probabilities overlap with recent independent measurements using a similar approach. The two sets of measurements are found to be in good agreement for measurements in common. Our new laboratory data are applied to refine the hafnium photospheric solar abundance and to determine hafnium abundances in 10 metal-poor giant stars with enhanced r-process abundances. For the Sun we derive log epsilon (Hf) = 0.88 +/- 0.08 from four lines; the uncertainty is dominated by the weakness of the lines and their blending by other spectral features. Within the uncertainties of our analysis, the r-process-rich stars possess constant Hf/La and Hf/Eu abundance ratios, log epsilon (Hf...
Gd Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Den Hartog, E A; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 49 even-parity and 14 odd-parity levels of Gd II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 611 lines of Gd II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Gd II transition probabilities and the first using a high performance Fourier transform spectrometer. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Gd abundance, log epsilon = 1.11 +/- 0.03. Revised Gd abundances have also been derived for the r-process-rich metal-poor giant stars CS 22892-052, BD+17 3248, and HD 115444. The resulting Gd/Eu abundance ratios are in very good agreement with the solar-system r-process ratio. We have employed the increasingly accurate stellar abundance determinations, resulting in large part from the more precise laboratory atomic data, to predict directly the Solar System r-process elemental...
Calculation of Probability Maps Directly from Ordinary Kriging Weights
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Jorge Kazuo Yamamoto
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Probability maps are useful to analyze ores or contaminants in soils and they are helpful to make a decision duringexploration work. These probability maps are usually derived from the indicator kriging approach. Ordinary krigingweights can be used to derive probability maps as well. For testing these two approaches a sample data base was randomlydrawn from an exhaustive data set. From the exhaustive data set actual cumulative distribution functions were determined.Thus, estimated and actual conditional cumulative distribution functions were compared. The vast majority of correlationcoeffi cients between estimated and actual probability maps is greater than 0.75. Not only does the ordinary kriging approachwork, but it also gives slightly better results than median indicator kriging. Moreover, probability maps from ordinary krigingweights are much easier than the traditional approach based on either indicator kriging or median indicator kriging.
Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.
Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam
2015-02-15
Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
XING Feng-ying; WU Zhong-hong; ZENG Shen-ming; LIU Guo-shi; ZHU Shi-en; ZHANG Zhong-cheng; CHEN Xue-jin
2004-01-01
Effects of different ages of donors and different conditions of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and efficiency of parthenogenetic activation were studied. The experiments included: 1) effects of different temperatures (22, 30, 37, 38.5and 40℃) of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and developmental potential; 2) effects of periods of preserving ovaries on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and development in vitro; 3) effects of different ages of donors on porcine oocytes maturation in vitro and developmental potential. The results of the experiment showed:1) There were no statistical differences (p＞0.05) of the parthenogenetic cleavage rate (79.64% vs 76.18%) and blastocyst rate (18.11% vs 33.82%) between oocytes from ovaries preserved at 38.5℃ and those preserved at 37℃. When the preserving temperature was increased to 40℃, the cleavage rate (21.68%) and the blastocyst rate (0) were great significantly lower than those at 37℃(p＜0.01). The cleavage rate (80.79% vs 76.18%) and blastocyst rate (29.61% vs 33.82%) were not different between 30 and 37℃(p＞ 0.05). When the preserving temperature was decreased to 22℃, the rate of cleavage was not different,but the rate of blastocyst was significantly lower, compared with that at 37℃; 2) The cleavage and blastocyst rates of the porcine oocytes collected after slaughter 2 or 6h were not different (p＞0.05); 3) The cleavage rate of oocytes from gilts and sows after maturation was not different, but the blastocyst rate of the sow group was significantly higher than that of gilt group (p＜ 0.05). The blastocyst cell number of sows and gilt showed no difference (p＞0.05).
The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus
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Corrado Gini
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
Associativity and normative credal probability.
Snow, P
2002-01-01
Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959.
Probability landscapes for integrative genomics
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Benecke Arndt
2008-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The comprehension of the gene regulatory code in eukaryotes is one of the major challenges of systems biology, and is a requirement for the development of novel therapeutic strategies for multifactorial diseases. Its bi-fold degeneration precludes brute force and statistical approaches based on the genomic sequence alone. Rather, recursive integration of systematic, whole-genome experimental data with advanced statistical regulatory sequence predictions needs to be developed. Such experimental approaches as well as the prediction tools are only starting to become available and increasing numbers of genome sequences and empirical sequence annotations are under continual discovery-driven change. Furthermore, given the complexity of the question, a decade(s long multi-laboratory effort needs to be envisioned. These constraints need to be considered in the creation of a framework that can pave a road to successful comprehension of the gene regulatory code. Results We introduce here a concept for such a framework, based entirely on systematic annotation in terms of probability profiles of genomic sequence using any type of relevant experimental and theoretical information and subsequent cross-correlation analysis in hypothesis-driven model building and testing. Conclusion Probability landscapes, which include as reference set the probabilistic representation of the genomic sequence, can be used efficiently to discover and analyze correlations amongst initially heterogeneous and un-relatable descriptions and genome-wide measurements. Furthermore, this structure is usable as a support for automatically generating and testing hypotheses for alternative gene regulatory grammars and the evaluation of those through statistical analysis of the high-dimensional correlations between genomic sequence, sequence annotations, and experimental data. Finally, this structure provides a concrete and tangible basis for attempting to formulate a
Kasradze, D; Tavartkiladze, A; Kasradze, M; Nozadze, P
2010-12-01
The aim of our research was to study the influence of melatonin on pancreatic β-cells under the condition of alloxan-induced Diabetes Mellitus - especially in old age, when the mentioned disease frequently takes place. 56 male white rats were used in the study. Two age groups were selected: adult period of life and late senescent period of life. This number of rats was divided into three groups: I - experimental group (10 adult and 10 old animals), II - experimental group (10 adult and 10 old animals), and III - control group (8 adult and 8 old animals). On the 1st day of experiment the animals of I and II experimental groups were injected with alloxan at a single dose of 60 mg/kg (into the tail vein) for Diabetes Mellitus induction. The animals of II experimental group were also given melatonin (0,15mg/kg) daily during the 14 days. During the experiment 2 old rats from I experimental group died. In III - control group the intact animals have been used. After stopping of the experiment (15th day), under the ether narcosis the animals were sacrificed. The tissue taken from pancreas has been processed for electron microscopy. Ultrastructural study was performed using electronograms. In each experimental case 100 β-cells have been studied.. Results of research were studied statistically using computer program SPSS v.12.The results of ultrastructural study of pancreatic β-cells have shown that in mentioned cells of animals from I experimental group ultrastructural peculiarities are markedly changed as compared with the norm, and β-cells' injury (in some cases - irreversible changes) are prominent. The mentioned changes are more prominent in old organisms, than in adult ones. In most of pancreatic β-cells of animals from II experimental group ulstrastructural peculiarities are not changed as compared with the norm: ultrastructures of β-cells of animals from II experimental group in both age groups are markedly defended against the damage, which suggests that
A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Widhe, Torulf L. [Department of Orthopaedics, Huddinge University Hospital (Sweden)
2002-06-01
A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease in two sisters and one female cousin is described. In infancy, the radiological findings were osteopenia, coxa vara, periosteal cloaking, bowing of the long bones, and flaring of the metaphyses. During growth, spinal pathology developed with compression of the vertebral bodies and scoliosis in one girl and kyphosis in another. All three children had genu valgum and two developed severe S-shaped bowing of the tibiae. Growth was stunted. Inheritance of this disorder is probably recessive. Type I and III collagen biosynthesis was normal. This condition is probably a hitherto undescribed form of osteogenesis imperfecta type III or a new bone disease. (orig.)
Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications
Helms, Lester L
2010-01-01
This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process
Simulations of a mortality plateau in the sexual Penna model for biological aging
Schwämmle, V.; de Oliveira, S. Moss
2005-09-01
The Penna model is a strategy to simulate the genetic dynamics of age-structured populations, in which the individual genomes are represented by bit strings. It provides a simple metaphor for the evolutionary process in terms of the mutation accumulation theory. In its original version, an individual dies due to inherited diseases when its current number of accumulated mutations, n , reaches a threshold value T . Since the mean number of diseases increases with age, the probability to die is zero for very young ages (ngenetic death age, we test several other functions that may or may not slightly increase the death probability at young ages (nages. By imposing certain conditions, it has been possible to obtain a clear plateau using the Penna model. However, a more realistic one appears when a modified version, that keeps the population size fixed without fluctuations, is used. We also find a relation between the birth rate, the age structure of the population, and the death probability.
A new estimator of the discovery probability.
Favaro, Stefano; Lijoi, Antonio; Prünster, Igor
2012-12-01
Species sampling problems have a long history in ecological and biological studies and a number of issues, including the evaluation of species richness, the design of sampling experiments, and the estimation of rare species variety, are to be addressed. Such inferential problems have recently emerged also in genomic applications, however, exhibiting some peculiar features that make them more challenging: specifically, one has to deal with very large populations (genomic libraries) containing a huge number of distinct species (genes) and only a small portion of the library has been sampled (sequenced). These aspects motivate the Bayesian nonparametric approach we undertake, since it allows to achieve the degree of flexibility typically needed in this framework. Based on an observed sample of size n, focus will be on prediction of a key aspect of the outcome from an additional sample of size m, namely, the so-called discovery probability. In particular, conditionally on an observed basic sample of size n, we derive a novel estimator of the probability of detecting, at the (n+m+1)th observation, species that have been observed with any given frequency in the enlarged sample of size n+m. Such an estimator admits a closed-form expression that can be exactly evaluated. The result we obtain allows us to quantify both the rate at which rare species are detected and the achieved sample coverage of abundant species, as m increases. Natural applications are represented by the estimation of the probability of discovering rare genes within genomic libraries and the results are illustrated by means of two expressed sequence tags datasets.
Biagini, Francesca
2016-01-01
This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.
Erman, Hayriye; Aksu, Uğur; Belce, Ahmet; Atukeren, Pınar; Uzun, Duygu; Cebe, Tamer; Kansu, Ahmet D; Gelişgen, Remisa; Uslu, Ezel; Aydın, Seval; Çakatay, Ufuk
2016-07-01
It is well known that in vitro storage lesions lead to membrane dysfunction and decreased number of functional erythrocytes. As erythrocytes get older, in storage media as well as in peripheral circulation, they undergo a variety of biochemical changes. In our study, the erythrocytes with different age groups in citrate phosphate dextrose adenine-formula 1 (CPDA-1) storage solution were used in order to investigate the possible effect of gender factor on oxidative damage. Oxidative damage biomarkers in erythrocyte membranes such as ferric reducing antioxidant power, pro-oxidant-antioxidant balance, protein-bound advance glycation end products, and sialic acid were analyzed. Current study reveals that change in membrane redox status during blood-bank storage condition also depends on both gender depended homeostatic factors and the presence of CPDA-1. During the storage period in CPDA-1, erythrocytes from the male donors are mostly affected by free radical-mediated oxidative stress but erythrocytes obtained from females are severely affected by glyoxidative stress.
Stone, Rosalie A Torres; Delman, Jonathan; McKay, Colleen E; Smith, Lisa M
2015-10-01
Transition age youth and young adults (TAYYAs) diagnosed with serious mental health conditions (SMHCs) are at greater risk of being unemployed compared to their peers without SMHCs. Job counseling and job placement services are the greatest predictor of competitive employment, yet we have limited knowledge about what TAYYAs believe they need to obtain gainful employment. In person, qualitative interviews were conducted with 57 non-Hispanic and Hispanic TAYYAs with SMHCs enrolled in three vocational support programs in MA (Vocational Rehabilitation, Individual Placement and Support; the Clubhouse Model as described by the International Center for Clubhouse Development). Six themes emerged from the data: three themes were identified as social capital (supportive relationships, readily available workplace supports, and vocational preparation), two themes related to human capital (effective educational supports and work experience), and one theme related to cultural capital (social skills training). Unique features (Spanish-speaking staff and/or familiar in Latino culture, familial-like staff support) were frequently noted by Hispanic TAYYAs.
Fusion probability in heavy nuclei
Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu
2015-03-01
Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, PCN> , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. PCN> for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: PCN> has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine PCN> . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where PCN> starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of PCN> from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross sections
A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lando, Henrik
2006-01-01
This article derives key variables in the analysis of standards of proof in criminal law from basic conditional probabilities. The variables derived are the probability of correct and wrongful conviction, the expected sanction and society's incarceration costs, while the basic conditional...... probabilities are the probability of observing (any given) evidence against individual i given that individual j committed the crime (for any j including j equal to i). The variables are derived from the conditional probabilities as a function of the standard of the proof using simple Bayesian updating....
Psychophysics of the probability weighting function
Takahashi, Taiki
2011-03-01
A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.
Probable Linezolid-Induced Pancytopenia
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Nita Lakhani
2005-01-01
Full Text Available A 75-year-old male outpatient with cardiac disease, diabetes, chronic renal insufficiency and iron deficiency anemia was prescribed linezolid 600 mg twice daily for a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus diabetic foot osteomyelitis. After one week, his blood counts were consistent with baseline values. The patient failed to return for subsequent blood work. On day 26, he was admitted to hospital with acute renal failure secondary to dehydration, and was found to be pancytopenic (erythrocytes 2.5x1012/L, leukocytes 2.9x109/L, platelets 59x109/L, hemoglobin 71 g/L. The patient was transfused, and linezolid was discontinued. His blood counts improved over the week and remained at baseline two months later. The patient's decline in blood counts from baseline levels met previously established criteria for clinical significance. Application of the Naranjo scale indicated a probable relationship between pancytopenia and linezolid. Clinicians should be aware of this rare effect with linezolid, and prospectively identify patients at risk and emphasize weekly hematological monitoring.
Haavelmo's Probability Approach and the Cointegrated VAR
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juselius, Katarina
Some key econometric concepts and problems addressed by Trygve Haavelmo and Ragnar Frisch are discussed within the general frame- work of a cointegrated VAR. The focus is on problems typical of time- series data such as multicollinearity, spurious correlation and regres- sion results, time......) the plausibility of the multivari- ate normality assumption underlying the VAR, (3) cointegration as a solution to the problem of spurious correlation and multicollinearity when data contain deterministic and stochastic trends, (4) the exis- tence of a universe, (5) the association between Frisch’s con...... dependent residuals, normalization, reduced rank, model selection, missing variables, simultaneity, autonomy and iden- ti…cation. Speci…cally the paper discusses (1) the conditions under which the VAR model represents a full probability formulation of a sample of time-series observations, (2...
Stochastic integral equations without probability
Mikosch, T; Norvaisa, R
2000-01-01
A pathwise approach to stochastic integral equations is advocated. Linear extended Riemann-Stieltjes integral equations driven by certain stochastic processes are solved. Boundedness of the p-variation for some 0
condition on the driving stochastic process. Typical examples of such
On ARMA Probability Density Estimation.
1981-12-01
definitions of the constants B0k=Ol ,...,q) and ak(kl,...,p) will be given which, for a given function f(.), uniquely define an approximator f pCq .) for each...satisfied. When using f pCq () for approximation purposes it is thus important to always verify whether or not this condition is met. In concluding
Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.
Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N
2015-08-01
We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning.
Fasting: Benefits and probable health harmfulness from the Islamic perspective
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahdi Ebrahimi
2015-06-01
Medical science can determine the effects and consequences of thirst and hunger during the month of Ramadan. In the religious perspective, it has been emphasized that fasting is for achieving the divine virtue, and this shouldn’t be in conflict with maintaining man’s health. Therefore, the conditions in which there is the probability of harmfulness to man’s health due to fasting, man shouldn’t fast. As a result, medical science could recognize the conditions in which there is probable harmfulness to man’s health.