WorldWideScience

Sample records for adopting global climate

  1. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  2. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  3. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  4. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  5. Global Climate Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Hourly Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically...

  6. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  7. Global climate convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonis, U.E.

    1991-01-01

    The effort of negotiate a global convention on climate change is one of mankind's great endeavours - and a challenge to economists and development planners. The inherent linkages between climate and the habitability of the earth are increasingly well recognized, and a convention could help to ensure that conserving the environment and developing the economy in the future must go hand in hand. Due to growing environmental concern the United Nations General Assembly has set into motion an international negotiating process for a framework convention on climate change. One the major tasks in these negotiations is how to share the duties in reducing climate relevant gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), between the industrial and the developing countries. The results and proposals could be among the most far-reaching ever for socio-economic development, indeed for global security and survival itself. While the negotiations will be about climate and protection of the atmosphere, they will be on fundamental global changes in energy policies, forestry, transport, technology, and on development pathways with low greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these aspects of a climate convention, particularly the distributional options and consequences for the North-South relations, are addressed in this chapter. (orig.)

  8. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  9. Strategic Global Climate Command?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, J. C. S.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers have been exploring geoengineering because Anthropogenic GHG emissions could drive the globe towards unihabitability for people, wildlife and vegetation. Potential global deployment of these technologies is inherently strategic. For example, solar radiation management to reflect more sunlight might be strategically useful during a period of time where the population completes an effort to cease emissions and carbon removal technologies might then be strategically deployed to move the atmospheric concentrations back to a safer level. Consequently, deployment of these global technologies requires the ability to think and act strategically on the part of the planet's governments. Such capacity most definitely does not exist today but it behooves scientists and engineers to be involved in thinking through how global command might develop because the way they do the research could support the development of a capacity to deploy intervention rationally -- or irrationally. Internationalizing research would get countries used to working together. Organizing the research in a step-wise manner where at each step scientists become skilled at explaining what they have learned, the quality of the information they have, what they don't know and what more they can do to reduce or handle uncertainty, etc. Such a process can increase societal confidence in being able to make wise decisions about deployment. Global capacity will also be enhanced if the sceintific establishment reinvents misssion driven research so that the programs will identify the systemic issues invovled in any proposed technology and systematically address them with research while still encouraging individual creativity. Geoengineering will diverge from climate science in that geoengineering research needs to design interventions for some publically desirable goal and investigates whether a proposed intervention will acheive desired outcomes. The effort must be a systems-engineering design problem

  10. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  11. Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. N.

    2016-12-01

    The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

  12. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  13. Global climate feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  14. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  15. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  16. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  17. Russia and Global Climate Politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tynkkynen, Nina

    2014-09-01

    Russia, as the fourth largest greenhouse-gas emitter in the world, and a major supplier of fossil fuels causing these emissions, played a decisive role in the enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol, the main instrument of global climate policy so far. Domestically, serious political measures to combat climate change have yet to be taken. Thus, Russia's performance in global climate politics indicates that goals other than genuinely environmental ones, such as political or economic benefits, are the main motivation of Russia's participation. Also, Russia's national pride and its status as a great power are at stake here. This paper scrutinizes Russia's stance in global climate politics, offering an overview of Russia's engagement in international climate politics and its domestic climate policy. In the second part of the paper, Russia's engagement in global environmental politics is discussed in the context of Russia's world status and the great-power concept. Accordingly, the paper aims to shed light on how and why Russia behaves in global climate politics in the way it does. This may be of interest to actors in international environmental politics in general, and relevant to future climate negotiations in particular. (author)

  18. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  19. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  20. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2001-01-01

    In Austria the CO 2 emissions increased by 5.9 % from 1990 to 1999, the other greenhouse gases by 2.6 %. The Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Environment and Water Management, in cooperation with other ministries and the countries, has worked out an action plan for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, to meet the targets of the Kyoto protocol. This study analyzes the greenhouse gas emissions in Austria, in the European Union and globally. The measured emission values throughout Austria and in the other European countries are given in tables, the environmental impact for Austria and globally is discussed, statistical data and time series of the emission sources are given and legal regulations and measures for an effective environmental emission control in Austria, the European Union and worldwide are discussed. In particular the impact of fossil-fuel power plants on the greenhouse gas emissions is analysed. (a.n.)

  1. State of the Climate - Global Hazards

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  2. State of the Climate - Global Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  3. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  4. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  5. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lúcio, F.

    2012-04-01

    Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

  6. Adopting a global perspective in the discipline consumer science ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adopting a global perspective in the discipline consumer science. AC Erasmus, M Kok, A Retief. Abstract. 'n Oorwegend materialistiese waardestelsel en blootstelling aan die kragte van 'n ekonomiese markstelsel, het meegebring dat die moderne verbruiker 'n groot premie plaas op besittings en daarop ingestel is om ...

  7. Global climate change and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.

    1991-01-01

    In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  8. Malaysia's contributions towards global climate change concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzlaini Mohd Yusop; Yvonne Lunsong; Norhayati Kamaruddin

    2000-01-01

    Concerns about Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change were voiced by the scientific community as far back as the International Geophysical year in 1957 when climate changes scenarios and impacts were analysed. More recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, renewing a global acknowledgement and commitment towards curbing GHG emissions. Little progress was made until the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, over 5 years later. Basically, developed countries would not commit to strong measures if there were no global effort (i. e. corresponding efforts by developing countries) while developing countries are waiting for developed countries to show concrete results first. Since 1950, developed countries cumulatively produced more than 80% of worldwide GHG emissions. Between 1950 and 1990, North America alone contributed 40 billion tons of carbon while Western and Eastern Europe contributed 57 billion tons. Developing countries produced only 24 billion tons of carbon emissions during the same period. At present, per capita emission in developed countries are also about ten times higher than those of developing countries. This imbalance has caused most developing countries to adopt a wait till others do it stance and justifiably so. Nonetheless, curbing GHG emissions should be a larger community effort (which includes business and the public) and not just the efforts of Governments and officials. Thus, the deciding factors should make more business or economic sense. It is likely that business and the general public would listen and contribute positively if they are made aware of potential cost savings and international competitiveness to be derived from these efforts. During the current economic slowdown, especially in East Asia, it makes business sense to defer the capital investment in new electricity generating capacity and related energy supply infrastructure. Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  9. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  10. Costs of global climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the cost implications of the air pollution abatement recommendations contained in a recently published IPSEP (International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths) study on the feasibility of the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions deemed significantly responsible for the greenhouse effect and its associated negative impacts on this planet's climatic equilibrium. The air pollution abatement strategies are to be enforced in five highly industrialized European countries - Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Holland. The study's overall results indicate the feasibility of 50% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions within the next 30 years even with a more than doubling of GNP's and a contemporaneous phase-out of nuclear power production, and all this taking place in a cost effective way and with increased employment. In addition, IPSEP's report states that the implementation of effective program management strategies would bolster Western Europe's competitiveness on a global scale

  11. Global climate change -- taking action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

  12. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  13. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  14. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  15. The tundra - a threat to global climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roejle Christensen, T.

    1997-01-01

    The tundra biome has an important direct influence on the global climate through its exchange of radiatively active 'greenhouse gases', carbon dioxide and methane. A number of suggestions have been raised as to how a changing climate may alter the natural state of this exchange causing significant feedback effects in a changing climate. This paper provides a brief discussion of three different issues relating to the interaction between tundra and climate. It is concluded that release of methane hydrates, permafrost degradation and major biome changes are processes which in the long term may have important effects on further development of the global climate. (au) 32 refs

  16. Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

    OpenAIRE

    Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

  17. Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Richard S.J. Tol

    2012-01-01

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

  18. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  19. [The global climate: a sick patient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lidegaard, O.; Lidegaard, M.

    2008-01-01

    , and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8/25......Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature...

  20. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  1. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

  2. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  3. Acidic deposition and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.

    1990-01-01

    A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects

  4. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

  5. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Global climate change has already begun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

  7. Adoption

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a relative, foster parent, or a completely new family. An adoptive family might be a single parent, a couple, or ... doesn't mean they don't love their adoptive family or feel close to them. This curiosity, which ...

  8. Policy options for stabilizing global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

    1990-12-01

    This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

  9. Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Baker, Paul A.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E.; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Mix, Alan C.; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Pahnke, Katharina

    2012-01-01

    Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to th...

  10. A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

  11. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

  12. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

    2015-05-12

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

  13. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  14. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  15. Business responses to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinkse, J.M.

    2006-04-27

    This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

  16. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  17. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  18. Global climate-friendly trade : Canada's chance to clean up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldfarb, D.

    2010-03-01

    This paper discussed the global trade and investment in climate-friendly technologies, Canada's current position in this market, and the policy changes that are necessary for Canadian businesses to gain a stronger foothold in this sector. The global market for climate-friendly technologies is growing rapidly, but Canadian businesses have generally failed to exploit opportunities to export climate-friendly technologies and have generally lagged other countries in adopting such technologies developed elsewhere. Although Canadian businesses generally underperform in this sector, Canada does have notable strengths in 13 identified areas, including waste management technologies, energy technologies, and in parts of the value chains associated with wind and solar power. Targeting these areas of relative strength for further development could position Canada as a global leader in some climate-friendly technologies. For this to happen, Canadian governments need to establish clear policies, invest in research and development, and remove domestic and international barriers to the development and trade in climate-friendly technologies. 30 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs.

  19. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  20. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, Fred

    2009-01-01

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  1. International Business and Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-15

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

  2. International Business and Global Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

  3. Clean coal technologies and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, R.S.

    1993-01-01

    The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

  4. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  5. Global climate change and California's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaux, H.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  6. Antarctic snow and global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granberg, H.B.

    2001-01-01

    Global circulation models (GCM) indicate that global warming will be most pronounced at polar regions and high latitudes, causing concern about the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. A project entitled the Seasonal Snow in Antarctica examined the properties of the near surface snow to determine the current conditions that influence snow cover development. The goal was to assess the response of the snow cover in Queen Maud Land (QML) to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content. The Antarctic snow cover in QML was examined as part of the FINNARP expeditions in 1999 and 2000 which examined the processes that influence the snow cover. Its energy and mass balance were also assessed by examining the near surface snow strata in shallow (1-2 m) pits and by taking measurements of environmental variables. This made it possible to determine if the glacier is in danger of melting at this northerly location in the Antarctic. The study also made it possible to determine which variables need to change and by how much, for significant melting to occur. It was shown that the Antarctic anticyclone creates particular conditions that protect the snow cover from melting. The anticyclone brings dry air from the stratosphere during most of the year and is exempt from the water vapour feedback. It was concluded that even a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will not produce major snow melt runoff. 8 refs

  7. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  8. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Tami C

    2007-01-01

    'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

  9. Global alteration of climate - hopes and fears

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viktorov, V.V.

    1992-01-01

    Problems concerning gaseous emission affecting the global climate alteration connected with hotbed effect are considered. Economical and social-political ways of solution of the problem of minimization of gaseous wastes are described. Role of nuclear power plants and alternative power plants in the hotbed effect are analyzed. International cooperation in environmental protection policy is discussed

  10. The emergence of global climate law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan; Farber, Daniel A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    As the chapters in this Encyclopedia demonstrate, climate law is a dynamic and multidisciplinary field, implicating many diverse fields of law at all levels from municipal planning through multinational treaties. The outlines of an emerging global law can be discerned, including shared principles

  11. Global but fair. Controvert the climatic change, allow development; Global aber gerecht. Klimawandel bekaempfen, Entwicklung ermoeglichen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The book includes the following chapters: global but fair: climate compatible development for everybody; climatic change consequences und vulnerabilities; ethic dimension: fairness in the context of climatic change and poverty; options and challenges for emissions abatement; options for the adaptation to the climatic change; global deal for climate and development policy; convert the climatic change, allow development: ten political messages.

  12. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  13. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  14. Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jutro, P.R.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

  15. Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

    2015-01-01

    The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

  16. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global Snow & Ice

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  17. State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the sun lit upper layer of the global ocean is the overwhelmingly dominant source of organic matter that fuels marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the global (land and ocean) net primary production (NPP; gross photosynthesis minus plant respiration) and phytoplankton carbon fixation is the primary conduit through which atmospheric CO2 concentrations interact with the ocean s carbon cycle. Phytoplankton productivity depends on the availability of sunlight, macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorous), and micronutrients (e.g., iron), and thus is sensitive to climate-driven changes in the delivery of these resources to the euphotic zone

  18. Tropical forest policies for the global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

  19. Cloud Compute for Global Climate Station Summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, R.; May, B.; Cogbill, P.

    2017-12-01

    Global Climate Station Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically are statistical analyses of station data over 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-year or longer time periods. The summaries are computed from the global surface hourly dataset. This dataset totaling over 500 gigabytes is comprised of 40 different types of weather observations with 20,000 stations worldwide. NCEI and the U.S. Navy developed these value added products in the form of hourly summaries from many of these observations. Enabling this compute functionality in the cloud is the focus of the project. An overview of approach and challenges associated with application transition to the cloud will be presented.

  20. Health effects of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  1. The dairy cow and global climate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Flávio Baccari Jr

    2015-01-01

     High producing dairy cows are more sensitive to heat stress due mainly to their higher resting metabolic rate as compared to low producing and dry cows. Their responses to increasing levels of the temperature-humidity and the black globe-humidity indices are discussed as well as some aspects of heat tolerance as related to body temperature increase and milk production decrease. Some mitigation and adaptation practices are recommended to face the challenges of global climate changes.

  2. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  3. Toward 10-km mesh global climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuchi, W.; Enomoto, T.; Takaya, K.; Yoshioka, M. K.

    2002-12-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that runs very efficiently on the Earth Simulator (ES) was developed. The ES is a gigantic vector-parallel computer with the peak performance of 40 Tflops. The AGCM, named AFES (AGCM for ES), was based on the version 5.4.02 of an AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Climate System Research, the University of Tokyo and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sciences. The AFES was, however, totally rewritten in FORTRAN90 and MPI while the original AGCM was written in FORTRAN77 and not capable of parallel computing. The AFES achieved 26 Tflops (about 65 % of the peak performance of the ES) at resolution of T1279L96 (10-km horizontal resolution and 500-m vertical resolution in middle troposphere to lower stratosphere). Some results of 10- to 20-day global simulations will be presented. At this moment, only short-term simulations are possible due to data storage limitation. As ten tera flops computing is achieved, peta byte data storage are necessary to conduct climate-type simulations at this super-high resolution global simulations. Some possibilities for future research topics in global super-high resolution climate simulations will be discussed. Some target topics are mesoscale structures and self-organization of the Baiu-Meiyu front over Japan, cyclogenecsis over the North Pacific and typhoons around the Japan area. Also improvement in local precipitation with increasing horizontal resolution will be demonstrated.

  4. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  5. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  6. Force, fraud, and coercion : Bridging from knowledge of intercountry adoption to global surrogacy

    OpenAIRE

    Smith Rotabi, K.

    2014-01-01

    This report discusses concerns raised by participants of Thematic Area 4 (Force, Fraud and Coercion) of the International Forum on Intercountry Adoption and Global Surrogacy held in August 2014. There has been a significant body of research on intercountry adoption practices over the past 30 years; force, fraud, and coercion have been identified in a small but important component of the literature. However, this knowledge in intercountry adoption has not yet truly bridged into research in glo...

  7. Force, fraud, and coercion : Bridging from knowledge of intercountry adoption to global surrogacy

    OpenAIRE

    Smith Rotabi, Karen; Cheney, Kristen

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThis report discusses concerns raised by participants of Thematic Area 4 (Force, Fraud and Coercion) of the International Forum on Intercountry Adoption and Global Surrogacy held in August 2014. There has been a significant body of research on intercountry adoption practices over the past 30 years; force, fraud, and coercion have been identified in a small but important component of the literature. However, this knowledge in intercountry adoption has not yet truly bridged into res...

  8. Amazonia: Burning and global climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molion, L.C.B.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, humans have been playing a major role in reducing the natural forest cover in the tropics through different forms of slash and burn. The most serious destruction, it is said, is occurring in the Amazon, which is the largest expanse of tropical forest remaining on the planet. This chapter reviews briefly the causes and the extent of Amazonian deforestation and focuses on its global and local climate impacts. In addition, the effects of loss of diversity and need to preserve Indian cultures and societies are briefly discussed

  9. Force, fraud, and coercion : Bridging from knowledge of intercountry adoption to global surrogacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Smith Rotabi (Karen); K.E. Cheney (Kristen)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThis report discusses concerns raised by participants of Thematic Area 4 (Force, Fraud and Coercion) of the International Forum on Intercountry Adoption and Global Surrogacy held in August 2014. There has been a significant body of research on intercountry adoption practices over the

  10. Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

    1991-01-01

    If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

  11. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  12. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  13. The global climate Policy Evaluation Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohan, D.; Stafford, R.K.; Scheraga, J.D.; Herrod, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Policy Evaluation Framework (PEF) is a decision analysis tool that enables decision makers to continuously formulate policies that take into account the existing uncertainties, and to refine policies as new scientific information is developed. PEF integrates deterministic parametric models of physical, biological, and economic systems with a flexible decision tree system. The deterministic models represent greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric accumulation of these gases, global and regional climate changes, ecosystem impacts, economic impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options, The decision tree system captures the key scientific and economic uncertainties, and reflects the wide range of possible outcomes of alternative policy actions. The framework contains considerable flexibility to allow a wide range of scientific and economic assumptions or scenarios to be represented and explored. A key feature of PEF is its capability to address both mitigation policies and investments in anticipatory adaptation to protect ecological and economic systems, as well as interactions among such options. PEF's time structure allows issues related to the timing and flexibility of alternatives to be evaluated, while the decision tree structure facilitates examining questions involving the value of information, contingent actions, and probabilistic representations. This paper is intended to introduce PEF to the global climate policy community. The paper provides an overview of the structure, modules, and capabilities of PEF, and discusses selected results from an initial set of illustrative applications

  14. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  15. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  16. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  17. United States policy for mitigating global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, P.; Kane, R.; Kildow, J.

    1998-01-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to explain current US policy on global climate change. US Department of Energy (DOE) efforts to implement this policy are described. A secondary objective of this paper is to discuss from a US perspective the social and political efforts which must be initiated in order for ocean storage of CO 2 to be considered as a viable CO 2 mitigation option. The fact that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has not been successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now recognized. Thus, US policy has shifted towards the development of binding medium-term emissions targets and long-term atmosphere concentration goals. The US believes these goals can be accomplished through the adoption of cost-effective joint implementation agreements and international emissions trading mechanisms. Studies are currently underway to assess specific targets and timetables for emissions reductions. Voluntary efforts on the part of US industry have proven to be extremely successful in reducing US CO 2 -emissions. The US electric utility industry has taken the lead in voluntarily lowering greenhouse gas emissions under the DOE Climate Challenge Program. Areas of research interest to DOE include the development of high efficiency advanced power generation cycles and CO 2 sequestration technology. The US currently spends $1.6 billion on understanding global climate phenomena and only $1.6 million on CO 2 mitigation research. A number of socio-political considerations must be looked at in assessing the feasibility of ocean storage of CO 2 . Developing public trust appears to be a major concern in establishing the acceptability of ocean storage. Uncertainties in the effects of CO 2 on marine life, potential safety hazards associated with pipelining, and ship transport of CO 2 are all issues which must be dealt with as soon as possible. Some hidden costs associated with ocean disposal is also discussed

  18. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  19. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  20. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  1. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desbois, M.; Desalmand, F.

    1994-01-01

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  2. National action to mitigate global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    Over 170 participants from 60 countries met for three days in Copenhagen from 7 to 9 June 1994 to discuss howe the aims of the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change can be translated into practical action. The Conference was organised by the UNEP collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), with financial support from the Danish International Development Agency (Danida), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark. The main objective of the conference was to identify common approaches to national mitigation analysis for countries to use in meeting their commitments under the FCCC, and in setting priorities for national actions. Although addressing a broader theme, the conference marked the completion and publication of the second phase on UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Study. (au)

  3. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

    1992-05-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

  4. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  5. Ethical choices and global climate warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dotto, L

    1994-01-01

    The ethical implications of global warming are discussed, and a summary is presented of a study on ethics and climate change. Deciding the 'best' approaches depends on point of view, whether this be of a Canadian, a Somali, great grandchildren, the Amazon rain forest or a kangaroo. The spectrum of possible actions runs from avoidance to adaptation. Avoidance focuses on strategies to reduce the greenhouse effect by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions or preventing these emissions from reaching the atmosphere. Adaptation strategies help to cope with the negative consequences of allowing emissions to continue. Philosophers and ethicists have expressed a wide range of opinions on the consequences, responsibilities, limitations, and legal mechanisms involved in determining global warming action. A profound shift in corporate thinking is called for, with less emphasis on short-term bottom line. The role of governments and other institutions is debated, and questions are raised about the economic strategies that will best protect the interests of future generations. Energy efficiency and conservation must be reflected in the economic equation. Public cynicism with regard to political leaders is such that they are unlikely to credited with any degree of ethical motivation, a view that may be unwarranted. Ethical principles must become more central in the formulation of policies.

  6. Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

  7. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  8. EUROPEAN UNION IN GLOBAL CLIMATE GOVERNANCE: TO PARIS AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Savorskaya

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the 1990s, the European Union is aspiring global leadership in the area of climate change, which is refl ected in its active participation in the negotiations on the international climate change regime. However, those ambitions have not always turned out to be appropriate or justifi ed. Despite the fact that the European Union was able to achieve certain results during the Kyoto Protocol negotiations and even more signifi cant results in the process of its ratifi cation, for the most part EU negotiation strategy based on normative considerations, had not been successful, it was especially evident during the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Partly the disappointing results of EU performance during the Copenhagen negotiations are to be blamed on some of the key features of EU functioning logic, for example, the overall tendency to rely on scientifi c evidence in policy-making, which did not allow the EU to assess other parties’ interests adequately. As the results of the negotiations of parties to the UNFCCC in December 2015 in Paris have shown, the European Union did manage to work out its previous mistakes and build a broad informal international coalition. Contrary to the pessimistic expectations, the agreement was adopted and it took into account quite a few of the EU proposals. However, the Paris Treaty has a number of fl aws and inaccuracies, so the ability to eliminate them in a timely manner by the international community and the EU in particular, will determine the future of the new international climate change regime.

  9. Session B4 Management for sustainable use — Global climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The IPCC Third Assessment Report confirms that the evidence for global climate change is now stronger than ever. While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if ...

  10. Maize production in terms of global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekavac Goran

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

  11. Climate change, transgenic corn adoption and field-evolved resistance in corn earworm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venugopal, P Dilip; Dively, Galen P

    2017-06-01

    Increased temperature anomaly during the twenty-first century coincides with the proliferation of transgenic crops containing the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) (Bt) to express insecticidal Cry proteins. Increasing temperatures profoundly affect insect life histories and agricultural pest management. However, the implications of climate change on Bt crop-pest interactions and insect resistance to Bt crops remains unexamined. We analysed the relationship of temperature anomaly and Bt adoption with field-evolved resistance to Cry1Ab Bt sweet corn in a major pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Increased Bt adoption during 1996-2016 suppressed H. zea populations, but increased temperature anomaly buffers population reduction. Temperature anomaly and its interaction with elevated selection pressure from high Bt acreage probably accelerated the Bt-resistance development. Helicoverpa zea damage to corn ears, kernel area consumed, mean instars and proportion of late instars in Bt varieties increased with Bt adoption and temperature anomaly, through additive or interactive effects. Risk of Bt-resistant H. zea spreading is high given extensive Bt adoption, and the expected increase in overwintering and migration. Our study highlights the challenges posed by climate change for Bt biotechnology-based agricultural pest management, and the need to incorporate evolutionary processes affected by climate change into Bt-resistance management programmes.

  12. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  13. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    OpenAIRE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  14. Trump's Doctrine and Climate Change: New Challenges for Global Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Contipelli, Ernani

    2017-01-01

    The present communication aims to discuss the main topics related to Trump’s Doctrine and its effects on the implementation of global governance to fight against Climate Change. To present the argument, first, we will analyze the relation between global governance and climate change, followed by a general view of the climate change by some Republican Party members, and finally, the current policies already put in place by President Trump

  15. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  16. IMPACT OF GLOBAL ADOPTION OF IFRS ON NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET EFFECTIVENESSNESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick Oluku Mukoro

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS is a statement of intent to globalize financial standards so as to enable investors move capital and as such enshrine global competitiveness. Nigeria’s case to attract investment through the capital market can be advanced effectively if financial reporting is standardized and adopted. As an impact study, we employed adaptive expectation variant of the autoregressive model and multiple regression technique to study the prospect of Compliance with IFRS and how the Nigerian quoted companies faired in compliance with Nigerian Accounting Standards and its correlation with reporting incentives, idiosyncratic volatilities and stock price informativeness; which more or less indicates their preparedness for global adoption of IFRS in 2012.It is recommended that stiff penalties are required to prepare Nigerian financial environment for the global adoption of IFRS.A clear road map of adoption of IFRS will further drive the much needed foreign investment in-flow and help to brand Nigeria out of the corruption quagmire.

  17. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  18. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  19. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  20. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  1. Development directions of the global climate protection law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Katharina

    2014-01-01

    The contribution on development directions of the global climate protection law covers the origination process of the Kyoto protocol, the precise form of the Kyoto protocol, the climate protection regime afterwards: Montreal 2005 - implementation-improvement-innovation, Nairobi 2006 - climatic change very close, Bali 2007 - roadmap, Posen 2008 - intermediate step, Copenhagen 2009 - stagnancy, Cancun 2010 - comeback, Durban 2011 - gleam of hope, Doha 2012 - minimum compromise, Warsaw 2013 - hope. The last chapter discusses the fundamental problems and perspectives of the climate protection laws.

  2. Global Governance of Climate Change The Paris Agreement as a New Component of the UN Climate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Wirth

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force less than a year later, is the newest instrument to be adopted in the United Nations-sponsored global climate regime. The Paris Agreement takes its place under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and next to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2012 Doha Amendment. After describing the historical evolution of the UN climate regime employing the tools of international law, this Article explores the structural, institutional, and legal relationships between the new Paris Agreement and the prior development and content of UN-sponsored efforts on climate protection under the auspices of the 1992 Framework Convention. The need for such an analysis is particularly urgent because the new instrument was purposely not identified as a “protocol,” and its relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol is unclear. This Article consequently traces the development of the universal, UN-anchored climate regime from its origins in the 1990s to the present moment, with particular attention to the structural relationship among its various components and historical junctures. The Article then examines the text and structure of the Paris Agreement, along with its context, against this background. The significance of the Agreement’s status as an instrument other than a “protocol,” and its uncertain textual and institutional relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol, receive particular scrutiny. The Article concludes that the Paris Agreement, from a structural and institutional point of view, represents both a break with the past designed to initiate a new, globally-inclusive multilateral approach to climate protection, but also contains indications of continuity with prior questions of global climate policy.

  3. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Jessica C; Stack, Meghan L; Richmond, Marcie R; Bear, Allyson P; Hajjeh, Rana A; Bishai, David M

    2010-03-16

    Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  4. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  5. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  6. Scientist's Perceptions of Uncertainty During Discussions of Global Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanello, S.; Fortner, R.; Dervin, B.

    2003-04-01

    This research examines the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists during discussions of global climate change. In particular, it explores whether the disagreements between natural and social scientists are related to the ontological, epistemological, or methodological nature of the uncertainty of global climate change during these discussions. A purposeful sample of 30 natural and social scientists recognized as experts in global climate change by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and National Academies Committee on Global Change were interviewed to elicit their perceptions of disagreements during their three most troublesome discussions on global climate change. A mixed-method (qualitative plus quantitative research) approach with three independent variables was used to explore nature of uncertainty as a mediating variable in the relationships between academic training, level of sureness, level of knowledge, and position on global climate change, and the nature of disagreements and bridging strategies of natural and social scientists (Patton, 1997; Frechtling et al., 1997). This dissertation posits that it is the differences in the nature of uncertainty communicated by natural and social scientists and not sureness, knowledge, and position on global climate change that causes disagreements between the groups. By describing the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists and illuminating bridging techniques scientists use during these disagreements, it is hoped that information collected from this research will create a better dialogue between the scientists studying global climate change by providing communication strategies which will allow those versed in one particular area to speak to non-experts whether they be other scientists, media officials, or the public. These tangible strategies can then be used by government agencies to create better communications and education plans, which can

  7. Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.K.

    1992-01-01

    This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

  8. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015

    OpenAIRE

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and sol...

  9. Targets for global climate policy : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater

  10. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and

  11. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pumphrey, Carolyn

    2008-01-01

    .... But this notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the 20th century, the scientific community gradually came to terms with this theory and began to regard climate change even rapid climate change as more than a distant possibility...

  12. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  13. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  14. Myths and realities of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce, J.P.

    1991-01-01

    Greenhouse gases in the environment are increasing, resulting in global warming. This paper discusses three misconceptions about global warming. The three topics are the level of consensus among world scientists about global warming, how 'costly' remedies for global warming will be, and will growth in developing countries offset any changes made in developed countries. Possibilities for Canadian leadership on this critical issue are discussed. 1 fig.

  15. Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2017-05-09

    May 9, 2017 ... Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) ... the decisions they need to make about investment choices and development options, ...

  16. Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

    2012-01-01

    In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

  17. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

  18. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

  19. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  20. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  1. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  2. Population Policy Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Interplay of Global and Local Forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robinson Rachel Sullivan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan African countries have the highest population growth rates in the world, and are also the poorest. In response to a variety of global and local forces, during the 1980s and 1990s two thirds of sub- Saharan African countries adopted national population policies to reduce population growth. Drawing from existing research and using the texts of population policies to illustrate key points, this article summarises the factors that drove population policy adoption in the region. Globally, powerful donors with significant leverage promoted population policies as a solution to lagging socioeconomic development while international organizations spread norms about women’s rights and reproductive health. Locally, technocrats working within relevant ministries backed efforts to increase contraceptive prevalence, and population policies furthered political projects unrelated to population. The interplay of global and local forces led to governments adopting population policies. Ultimately, continued high desired fertility and limited implementation capacity have prevented population policies from significantly lowering fertility, but these policies have likely increased the availability of contraception, created important discursive space related to gender and sexuality, and provided countries with an opportunity to test procedures and approaches for policy-making on sensitive issues.

  3. Global Adoption of Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: Challenges for the Public Sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huesing, Joseph E; Andres, David; Braverman, Michael P; Burns, Andrea; Felsot, Allan S; Harrigan, George G; Hellmich, Richard L; Reynolds, Alan; Shelton, Anthony M; Jansen van Rijssen, Wilna; Morris, E Jane; Eloff, Jacobus N

    2016-01-20

    Advances in biotechnology continue to drive the development of a wide range of insect-protected, herbicide-tolerant, stress-tolerant, and nutritionally enhanced genetically modified (GM) crops, yet societal and public policy considerations may slow their commercialization. Such restrictions may disproportionately affect developing countries, as well as smaller entrepreneurial and public sector initiatives. The 2014 IUPAC International Congress of Pesticide Chemistry (San Francisco, CA, USA; August 2014) included a symposium on "Challenges Associated with Global Adoption of Agricultural Biotechnology" to review current obstacles in promoting GM crops. Challenges identified by symposium presenters included (i) poor public understanding of GM technology and the need for enhanced communication strategies, (ii) nonharmonized and prescriptive regulatory requirements, and (iii) limited experience with regulations and product development within some public sector programs. The need for holistic resistance management programs to enable the most effective use of insect-protected crops was also a point of emphasis. This paper provides details on the symposium discussion and provides background information that can be used in support of further adoption of beneficial GM crops. Overall, it emphasizes that global adoption of modern agricultural biotechnology has not only provided benefits to growers and consumers but has great potential to provide solutions to an increasing global population and diminishing agricultural land. This potential will be realized by continued scientific innovation, harmonized regulatory systems, and broader communication of the benefits of the high-yielding, disease-resistant, and nutritionally enhanced crops attainable through modern biotechnology.

  4. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  5. Global climate change and California agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  6. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  7. Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esty, Daniel C; Bell, Michelle L

    2018-04-01

    In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.

  8. Oceans, microbes, and global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Danovaro, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine life and on microbial components. Prokaryotes (Bacteria and Archaea), viruses and other microbial life forms are impacted by ...

  9. High School Teachers' Openness to Adopting New Practices: The Role of Personal Resources and Organizational Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stacy R; Pas, Elise T; Loh, Deanna; Debnam, Katrina J; Bradshaw, Catherine P

    2017-03-01

    Although evidence-based practices for students' social, emotional, and behavioral health are readily available, their adoption and quality implementation in schools are of increasing concern. Teachers are vital to implementation; yet, there is limited research on teachers' openness to adopting new practices, which may be essential to successful program adoption and implementation. The current study explored how perceptions of principal support, teacher affiliation, teacher efficacy, and burnout relate to teachers' openness to new practices. Data came from 2,133 teachers across 51 high schools. Structural equation modeling assessed how organizational climate (i.e., principal support and teacher affiliation) related to teachers' openness directly and indirectly via teacher resources (i.e., efficacy and burnout). Teachers with more favorable perceptions of both principal support and teacher affiliation reported greater efficacy, and, in turn, more openness; however, burnout was not significantly associated with openness. Post hoc analyses indicated that among teachers with high levels of burnout, only principal support related to greater efficacy, and in turn, higher openness. Implications for promoting teachers' openness to new program adoption are discussed.

  10. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  11. Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, C.

    2017-12-01

    Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

  12. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

  13. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  14. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  15. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  16. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels......, are influencing the climate in ways that threaten the well-being and continued development of human society. If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth. To decide...... on effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences...

  17. The Antarctic - the wild card in the global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oesterhus, Svein; Gammelsroed, Tor; Foldvik, Arne; Noest, Ole Anders

    1999-01-01

    The overview gives an account of studies of snowfall, ice melting and formation and water flow patterns in the Antarctic during the present global warming period. It also gives a survey of the ice area in the region. The sea water warming is dramatic and a large floating glacier seems to be decomposing which is disrupting the oceanographic and ecological relations in the region and globally and is significantly influencing the global climate

  18. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

  19. The global effects of subglobal climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Fischer, Carolyn; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2010-01-01

    Individual countries are in the process of legislating responses to the challenges posed by climate change. The prospect of rising carbon prices raises concerns in these nations about the effects on the competitiveness of their own energy-intensive industries and the potential for carbon leakage,

  20. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  1. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  2. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  3. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  4. A global overview of biotech (GM) crops: adoption, impact and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Clive

    2010-01-01

    In the early 1990s, some were skeptical that genetically modified (GM) crops, now referred to as biotech crops, could deliver improved products and make an impact at the farm level. There was even more skepticism that developing countries would adopt biotech crops. The adoption of and commercialization of biotech crops in 2008 is reviewed. The impact of biotech crops are summarized including their contribution to: global food, feed and fiber security; a safer environment; a more sustainable agriculture; and the alleviation of poverty, and hunger in the developing countries of the world. Future prospects are discussed. Notably, Egypt planted Bt maize for the first time in 2008 thereby becoming the first country in the Arab world to commercialize biotech crops.

  5. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  6. Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

  7. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  8. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  9. Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

    2018-05-27

    Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  10. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  11. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  12. Distribution of climatic changes during global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinnikov, K Ya; Kovyneva, N P

    1983-05-01

    Empirical evaluations of the influence of small (scale +/- 0.5/sup 0/C) changes in mean annual air surface temperature in the northern hemisphere on the fields of the mean values of the principal meteorological elements (temperature, pressure, precipitation) are discussed. The archives of climatic data for the last 100 years were subjected to statistical processing. The method is described in detail. 14 references, 5 figures.

  13. Effects of human activities on global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W W

    1977-01-01

    At present it is difficult to make any predictions for the natural course of climate in the next several decades. However by using climate models, predictions of the cause of climate changes as a result of anthropogenic influences can be made, other external factors remaining the same. Experiments with a number of different models have converged on approximately the same conclusions: the largest single effect of human activities on climate is due to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel combustion, i.e., air and thermal pollution, which contributes to a warming of the lower atmosphere; the best estimate of the warming of the mean surface temperature of the earth is about 1C by 2000 AD and 3C by 2050 AD with 3 to 5 times that increase in polar regions, and an uncertainty of roughly a factor of two. These conclusions assume a continued quasi exponential rate of release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Absorption of the added carbon dioxide is expected to take between 1000 and 1500 years. If all economically recoverable fossil fuel is burned in the next few centuries, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would increase by 5 to 8 times. An example of a natural warming on a similar scale to that expected in the middle of the next century occurred 4000 to 8000 years ago. Generally there was more rainfall especially over the present sub-tropical deserts, but some regions in middle and high latitudes were drier than now. The extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice would be influenced. The total volume of the major ice sheets would change, but a change in sea level cannot yet be predicted with any confidence.

  14. Global climate: Methane contribution to greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metalli, P.

    1992-01-01

    The global atmospheric concentration of methane greatly contributes to the severity of the greenhouse effect. It has been estimated that this concentration, due mainly to human activities, is growing at the rate of roughly 1.1% per year. Environmental scientists suggest that a reduction, even as small as 10%, in global methane emissions would be enough to curtail the hypothetical global warning scenarios forecasted for the up-coming century. Through the recovery of methane from municipal and farm wastes, as well as, through the control of methane leaks and dispersions in coal mining and petrochemical processes, substantial progress towards the abatement of greenhouse gas effects could be achieved without having to resort to economically detrimental limitations on the use of fossil fuels

  15. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  16. Global Climate Exchange: Peer collaboration in a “Global classroom”

    OpenAIRE

    Korsager, Majken; Jorde, Doris; Slotta, Jim

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on student peer collaboration in an online environment in an international shared curriculum, the Global Climate Exchange. Four cohorts of students (age 16 -19) from Canada, China, Norway and Sweden (n=157) were engaged in four wiki-based activities where they collaborated with peers locally and internationally. Previously, impact from Global Climate Exchange on students’ conceptual understanding was analysed, indicating a positive impact which might be explained by the amo...

  17. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale environmental change and the extent to which policies to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to environmental change may affect agriculture and hunger. These issues are likely to become ...

  18. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  19. Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2015-11-01

    A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

  20. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  1. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  2. Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

    2012-10-01

    Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

    2016-12-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

  4. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  5. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  6. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

    2018-01-17

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  7. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  8. Uncertainty and learning in a strategic environment. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change is rife with uncertainties. Yet, we can expect to resolve much of this uncertainty in the next 100 years or so. Therefore, current actions should reflect the value of flexibility. Nevertheless, most models of climate change, particularly game-theoretic models, abstract from uncertainty. A model of the impacts of uncertainty and learning in a non-cooperative game shows that the level of correlation of damages across countries is crucial for determining optimal policy

  9. Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Francis Gavin 512-471-6267 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Climate Change, Global Food...Russia led then-President Dmitry Medvedev to impose export restrictions on wheat, barley, and rye . Food security is fundamental to human security. Prior...how much food is grown and where it is grown. Second, climate change will increase the frequency of localized crop failures due to more frequent

  10. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  11. Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

  12. A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee

    2010-02-01

    Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

  13. Benefits and risks of adopting the global code of practice for recreational fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arlinghaus, Robert; Beard, T. Douglas; Cooke, Steven J.; Cowx, Ian G.

    2012-01-01

    Recreational fishing constitutes the dominant or sole use of many fish stocks, particularly in freshwater ecosystems in Western industrialized countries. However, despite their social and economic importance, recreational fisheries are generally guided by local or regional norms and standards, with few comprehensive policy and development frameworks existing across jurisdictions. We argue that adoption of a recently developed Global Code of Practice (CoP) for Recreational Fisheries can provide benefits for moving recreational fisheries toward sustainability on a global scale. The CoP is a voluntary document, specifically framed toward recreational fisheries practices and issues, thereby complementing and extending the United Nation's Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries by the Food and Agricultural Organization. The CoP for Recreational Fisheries describes the minimum standards of environmentally friendly, ethically appropriate, and—depending on local situations—socially acceptable recreational fishing and its management. Although many, if not all, of the provisions presented in the CoP are already addressed through national fisheries legislation and state-based fisheries management regulations in North America, adopting a common framework for best practices in recreational fisheries across multiple jurisdictions would further promote their long-term viability in the face of interjurisdictional angler movements and some expanding threats to the activity related to shifting sociopolitical norms.

  14. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  15. Global climate changes in the past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1993-01-01

    Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

  16. Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

  17. Global soil-climate-biome diagram: linking soil properties to climate and biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X.; Yang, Y.; Fang, J.

    2017-12-01

    As a critical component of the Earth system, soils interact strongly with both climate and biota and provide fundamental ecosystem services that maintain food, climate, and human security. Despite significant progress in digital soil mapping techniques and the rapidly growing quantity of observed soil information, quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale remain unclear. By compiling a large global soil database, we mapped seven major soil properties (bulk density [BD]; sand, silt and clay fractions; soil pH; soil organic carbon [SOC] density [SOCD]; and soil total nitrogen [STN] density [STND]) based on machine learning algorithms (regional random forest [RF] model) and quantitatively assessed the linkage between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale. Our results demonstrated a global soil-climate-biome diagram, which improves our understanding of the strong correspondence between soils, climate and biomes. Soil pH decreased with greater mean annual precipitation (MAP) and lower mean annual temperature (MAT), and the critical MAP for the transition from alkaline to acidic soil pH decreased with decreasing MAT. Specifically, the critical MAP ranged from 400-500 mm when the MAT exceeded 10 °C but could decrease to 50-100 mm when the MAT was approximately 0 °C. SOCD and STND were tightly linked; both increased in accordance with lower MAT and higher MAP across terrestrial biomes. Global stocks of SOC and STN were estimated to be 788 ± 39.4 Pg (1015 g, or billion tons) and 63 ± 3.3 Pg in the upper 30-cm soil layer, respectively, but these values increased to 1654 ± 94.5 Pg and 133 ± 7.8 Pg in the upper 100-cm soil layer, respectively. These results reveal quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale, suggesting co-evolution of the soil, climate and biota under conditions of global environmental change.

  18. Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

    2008-11-13

    We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

  19. Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases

  20. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  1. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  2. Broadband adoption, digital divide, and the global economic competitiveness of Western Balkan countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitrović Đorđe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The existing variation in economic performance between countries is significantly affected by the level, diffusion, and use of different types of information and communication technology. In the last several years economic competitiveness increasingly depends on broadband availability and the adoption, use, and speed of this technology. Broadband access to the internet fosters economic growth and development and increases a country’s global competitiveness. This technology could have a big impact on the competitive advantage of Western Balkan countries because they currently experience a large digital divide, both within countries (between regions, urban and rural areas, different vulnerable groups, etc. and with EU countries. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the current level and dynamics of the digital divide in Western Balkan countries using the Broadband Achievement Index (BAI, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA-based model, the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI, the Corruption Perception Index (CPI, and cross-country methodology. This paper measures and compares Western Balkan countries’ current level of broadband adoption and their position on the evolutionary path towards closing the existing economic and digital gap with EU countries. Comparative analysis of calculated BAI data values, GCI, and CPI shows that Western Balkan countries belong to the ‘laggard’ group regarding their broadband achievement and global economic competitiveness. The values of the calculated BAI sub-indexes in this paper indicate the strong and weak sides of the corresponding aspects of broadband technology implementation and give directions for setting further priorities for political intervention, not only in the building of information society but also in the improvement of the economic competitiveness of Western Balkan countries.

  3. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    it cost to treat asthma in children and other health problems caused by the dirt we were putting out of the smokestacks. It was passed by the...in Latin America for a number of years. General Clark used to say, “In SOUTHCOM, take no credit and expect none.” And I think that was a good rule...damage the health of our children .35 People also need to better understand the implications of globalization. Not all currently appreciate how our

  4. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  5. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

  6. Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Miller

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of- care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

  7. Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Miller

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

  8. Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Eric; Sikes, Hadley D

    Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

  9. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  10. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-09-23

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

  11. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  12. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

  13. Trace gases and other potential perturbations to global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Washington, W.M.; Isaacs, R.G.; Molnar, G.

    1986-01-01

    We review the various natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect the climate. The purpose is to summarize our understanding of these factors and their potential future climatic effects so that CO 2 -induced climate change can be viewed in a proper context. The factors we discuss include trace gases, anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, variation of solar constant, change of surface characteristics, and releases of waste heat. We discuss the origins of the various natural and anthropogenic perturbations, the physical and chemical processes and their interactions, model sensitivity calculations, and model projections of their potential future climatic effects. The discussions center on trace gases because of their potentially large climatic effects. It appears that the increases of atmospheric trace gases of other kinds in addition to CO 2 could have important climatic effects. The model calculations suggest that the combined effect of these other trace gases, and the associated change of atmospheric ozone and water vapor distributions, could potentially warm the climate by an amount comparable in magnitude to the effect of doubling the CO 2 . Aerosols of anthropogenic origins may have substantial effects on regional climate, while the volcanic aerosols may have an effect on large-scale climate for up to a few years after injection. Changes of surface characteristics and releases of waste heat may also have substantial effects on the regional climate, but these effects are most likely to be small when compared with the effect of CO 2 increase. Changes of solar constant could have an effect on the global scale, but the time scale is much longer. There is much more that needs to be learned with regard to the above mentioned natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect the climate. A brief summary of those needs is presented

  14. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  15. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  16. Modeling the potential impacts of global climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the hottest issues in the recent environmental research worldwide has become the harmful effects of climate change on the ecosystems and environment due to global warming. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries not only in the South East Asia but also in the world. It is predicted that a large portion of ...

  17. Global climate change: a framework for nursing action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GAVIN J. ANDREWS

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent research papers and commentaries have articulated the considerable effects that global climate change has had, and will have, on human health. Arguing that nursing must become more centrally involved in mitigation and response efforts, this paper develops a framework for professional consideration and action. Four core components of the framework are common tactics, maximizing specialties, prioritizing places and public scholarship.

  18. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  19. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  20. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  1. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  2. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  3. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  4. Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simberloff, D. [Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 37996 Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2000-11-15

    Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO{sub 2}, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.

  5. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  6. A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

  7. Climate change and the World Bank: opportunity for global governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehmer-Christiansen, S.A.

    1999-01-01

    The direct and indirect efforts of the World Bank and its off-spring, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), to become leading international agents of global environmental 'governance' and 'sustainable development' are described and analysed politically with reference to the development of an implementation regime of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Bank/GEF are seen as engaging in a potentially dangerous experiment of 'global ecological modernisation', or industrial transformation, in 'emerging economies', an experiment legitimised by reference to the catastrophic threat of man-made 'global warming'. This threat is already being translated into political, commercial and bureaucratic benefits accruing to a small global elite. How was this achieved and what are the likely political implications? (author)

  8. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2014-05-01

    The GFCS is a global partnership of governments and UN and international agencies that produce and use climate information and services. WMO, which is leading the initiative in collaboration with UN ISDR, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNESCO, UNDP and other UN and international partners are pooling their expertise and resources in order to co-design and co-produce knowledge, information and services to support effective decision making in response to climate variability and change in four priority areas (agriculture and fod security, water, health and disaster risk reduction). To address the entire value chain for the effective production and application of climate services the GFCS main components or pillars are being implemented, namely: • User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact to identify needs and capacities and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services; • Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data, products and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards; • Observations and Monitoring - to generate the necessary data for climate services according to agreed standards; • Research, Modelling and Prediction — to harness science capabilities and results and develop appropriate tools to meet the needs of climate services; • Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South pacific Islands. This paper will provide details on the status of implementation of the GFCS worldwider.

  9. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  10. Climate Services Information System Activities in Support of The Global Framework for Climate Services Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Klein-Tank, A.; Kolli, R. K.; Hechler, P.; Dilley, M.; Ceron, J. P.; Goodess, C.

    2017-12-01

    The WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) supports the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with a particular focus on the Climate Services Information System (CSIS), which is the core operational component of GFCS at the global, regional, and national level. CSIS is designed for producing, packaging and operationally delivering authoritative climate information data and products through appropriate operational systems, practices, data exchange, technical standards, authentication, communication, and product delivery. Its functions include climate analysis and monitoring, assessment and attribution, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal), and projection (centennial scale) as well as tailoring the associated products tUEAo suit user requirements. A central, enabling piece of implementation of CSIS is a Climate Services Toolkit (CST). In its development phase, CST exists as a prototype (www.wmo.int/cst) as a compilation of tools for generating tailored data and products for decision-making, with a special focus on national requirements in developing countries. WMO provides a server to house the CST prototype as well as support operations and maintenance. WMO members provide technical expertise and other in-kind support, including leadership of the CSIS development team. Several recent WMO events have helped with the deployment of CST within the eight countries that have been recognized by GFCS as illustrative for developing their climate services at national levels. Currently these countries are developing climate services projects focusing service development and delivery for selected economic sectors, such as for health, agriculture, energy, water resources, and hydrometeorological disaster risk reduction. These countries are working together with their respective WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), which provide technical assistance with implementation of climate services projects at the country level and facilitate development of

  11. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  12. Global climate change adaptation: examples from Russian boreal forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krankina, O.N.; Dixon, R.K.; Kirilenko, A.P.; Kobak, K.I.

    1997-01-01

    The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaption measures for them: (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation

  13. A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonchalermkit, S.

    1994-01-01

    Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

  14. Governing climate : the struggle for a global framework beyond Kyoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, T.; Hasselknippe, H.; Tangen, K.; Michaelowa, A.; Pan, J.; Sinton, J.

    2005-01-01

    This book presented the results of a 2 year research project which developed post-2012 climate regime scenarios. The aim of the project was to contribute to decision-making and dialogue between policy-makers and stakeholders. A range of scenarios for a post-2012 framework were developed which illustrated the many possible futures under which the global climate regime may evolve. Scenarios include the strengthening of a binding-cap approach; a bottom-up evolution of emission markets on a global scale; a regime consisting of multiple treaties among like-minded countries and a binding-cap regime with an emphasis on equity. Papers in this book explored key building blocks of a future climate regime, and presented ideas on how to broaden the current cap-and-trade regime. The roles and importance of technology were explored. Lessons from past successes were reviewed with the aim of developing options for their most effective use in the near future. The issue of financial flows to developing countries was addressed, including the issue of mainstreaming assistance for climate-change response. It was suggested that European countries will be key players in initial negotiations in the post-2012 regime, and that the current framework favours Europe while making it difficult for the United States, Japan and Canada to make ambitious commitments. It was concluded that a careful analysis of all the alternative paths available for international climate policies is needed. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  16. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  17. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  18. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

  19. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengård

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective: To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results: The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion: Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health.

  20. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  1. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  2. GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AMERICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PATRICK PATERSON

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming presents one of the most serious threats to South American nations. Countries in the region are at risk of a variety of climate change related problems: rising sea levels, diminishing potable water supplies, forest res, intense storms and ooding, heat waves and the spread of diseases. These disasters are occurring more frequently in the region and will likely increase in intensity also. The armed forces in the region are the only government departments with both the capacity and the manpower to respond to these massive catastrophes. Military support to civilian authorities will be required more frequently and under more severe conditions as climate change conditions worsen.

  3. Overcoming Obstacles in Global Climate Action from Copenhagen to Paris

    OpenAIRE

    Garrison, Jean A.; Kolleg-Forschergruppe The Transformative Power of Europe

    2017-01-01

    The global climate change agreement completed on December 12, 2015 in Paris set a collective target to cap greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius with a goal to get as close as possible to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. These goals were to be accomplished through a “bottom up” mechanism for national policy approaches in which states made their own choices about how they would meet climate targets. This paper examines why and how an a...

  4. ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowland, F. S.

    2010-01-01

    The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

  5. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  6. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, Filipe

    2015-04-01

    The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva 2009) unanimously decided to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO to guide the development and application of science-based climate information and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors. By promoting science-based decision-making, the GFCS is empowering governments, communities and companies to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to impacts. The initial priority areas of GFCS are Agriculture and Food Security; Disaster Risk Reduction; Health; and Water Resources. The implementation of GFCS is well underway with a governance structure now fully established. The governance structure of GFCS includes the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC), which is GFCS's stakeholder engagement mechanism. The membership of the PAC allows for a broad participation of stakeholders. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Commission (EC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Global Water Partnership (GWP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO have already joined the PAC. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and Pacific Small Islands Developing States through flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas of GFCS to enable the development of a Proof of Concept. The focus at national level is on strengthening institutional capacities needed for development of capacities for co-design and co-production of climate services and their application in support of decision-making in climate sensitive

  7. Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

  8. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  9. Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trygve Lavik

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

  10. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  11. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  12. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  13. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  14. Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, R R

    1996-12-20

    The origin of cholera has been elusive, even though scientific evidence clearly shows it is a waterborne disease. However, standard bacteriological procedures for isolation of the cholera vibrio from environmental samples, including water, between epidemics generally were unsuccessful. Vibrio cholerae, a marine vibrio, requiring salt for growth, enters into a dormant, viable but nonculturable stage when conditions are unfavorable for growth and reproduction. The association of Vibrio cholerae with plankton, notably copepods, provides further evidence for the environmental origin of cholera, as well as an explanation for the sporadic and erratic occurrence of cholera epidemics. On a global scale, cholera epidemics can now be related to climate and climatic events, such as El Niño, as well as the global distribution of the plankton host. Remote sensing, with the use of satellite imagery, offers the potential for predicting conditions conducive to cholera outbreaks or epidemics.

  15. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  16. Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

  17. A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houtman, N.

    1994-01-01

    Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

  18. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  19. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  20. Studying the human dimensions of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berk, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    With recent scientific interest in climate change has come a need to address substantive issues over very long periods of time and over virtually the entire globe. There is also a growing recognition not only of the links between physical and biological systems but also of the key roles played by human activities and institutions in interaction with the physical and biological world. Hence, the study of climate change presents a host of important questions to social scientists, for which they are not fully prepared. The problems inherent in studying the human dimensions of global climate change do not occur in a scientific vacuum. Rather, they are in part created by, and in part reflect, important gaps in scientific understanding of the physical and biological dimensions. To set the stage, therefore, the general nature of these gaps needs to be briefly reviewed

  1. Resolving the Aerosol Piece of the Global Climate Picture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    Factors affecting our ability to calculate climate forcing and estimate model predictive skill include direct radiative effects of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Several decades of Earth-observing satellite observations have produced a global aerosol column-amount (AOD) record, but an aerosol microphysical property record required for climate and many air quality applications is lacking. Surface-based photometers offer qualitative aerosol-type classification, and several space-based instruments map aerosol air-mass types under favorable conditions. However, aerosol hygroscopicity, mass extinction efficiency (MEE), and quantitative light absorption, must be obtained from in situ measurements. Completing the aerosol piece of the climate picture requires three elements: (1) continuing global AOD and qualitative type mapping from space-based, multi-angle imagers and aerosol vertical distribution from near-source stereo imaging and downwind lidar, (2) systematic, quantitative in situ observations of particle properties unobtainable from space, and (3) continuing transport modeling to connect observations to sources, and extrapolate limited sampling in space and time. At present, the biggest challenges to producing the needed aerosol data record are: filling gaps in particle property observations, maintaining global observing capabilities, and putting the pieces together. Obtaining the PDFs of key particle properties, adequately sampled, is now the leading observational deficiency. One simplifying factor is that, for a given aerosol source and season, aerosol amounts often vary, but particle properties tend to be repeatable. SAM-CAAM (Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses), a modest aircraft payload deployed frequently could fill this gap, adding value to the entire satellite data record, improving aerosol property assumptions in retrieval algorithms, and providing MEEs to translate between remote-sensing optical constraints

  2. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  3. The value of international cooperation for abating global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, James K.; Adams, John L.

    1996-01-01

    Because abatement of global climate change is a public good, independent national actions may not produce the efficient quantity. Using a numerical integrated-assessment model, abatement costs and damages induced by climate change are compared at the cooperative and noncooperative solutions to a set of two-party dynamic games between the industrialized and developing countries. Games with perfect and imperfect information about climate and economic factors are considered. Across 144 games with perfect information, incorporating different values of climate and economic parameters, the noncooperative solution usually yields global benefits comparable to those of the cooperative solution. In about one-fifth of these games, however, a second noncooperative solution exists which yields none of the benefits of the cooperative solution. In a game with imperfect information, where the state of nature is uncertain in the first but known in the second of two periods, the expected benefits of the noncooperative solution are 98% of the expected benefits of the cooperative solution. In contrast to single-agent studies which show little cost to delaying abatement, the benefits of cooperation are usually lost if cooperation is delayed 20 years

  4. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  5. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  6. The rise and fall of the global climate polity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited to engine......Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited...... to engineering local and temporary effects on rainfall, and historically many schemes ended in failure or even ridicule (Fleming 2012). Few if any people seriously entertained the idea that people, states, corporations and international organizations would mobilize and operate giant monitoring and regulatory...... systems in concerted attempts to change (or preserve) the chemical composition of the global atmosphere. This raises not only the question of how the idea of governing something like the climate so rapidly became a matter of course but also how sure we can be that it will remain so in, for example...

  7. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  8. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

  9. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  10. Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Peter L.

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

  11. The physics of global climate change: challenges for research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artaxo, Paulo [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Dept. de Fisica Aplicada

    2009-07-01

    Full text: There are major issues in our scientific understanding of the functioning of our planet Earth. The growing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, changing in surface albedo, changes in distribution and lifetime of clouds, alteration in aerosol properties and distribution, are all key issues in the radiation balance that controls the climate of our planet. Earth is a non linear highly complex system. Since the industrial revolution, concentration of greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide and methane have increase by 30 to 100%. The fraction of infrared radiation trapped in the atmosphere has increased by about 1.6 watts/m{sup 2}. This additional energy has increased the average temperature by 0.79 degrees centigrade, with certain regions. But, we know very little of the physics, chemistry and biology that controls emissions, sinks and effects in Earth climate. Every week new important scientific findings are published in this area, and models that could predict the future of Earth climate are quite primitive and lack key issues. The hard science of global change is closely associated with socio-economic issues. Humanity have taken the main control role on Earth climate, and the potential for an average increase in temperature of 3 to 5 degrees is large, although there are tentative to limit the average temperature growth to 2 degrees. But even with this ambitious target, Amazonia and the Arctic will probably be much hotter than 3-4 degrees, with important feedbacks in the climate system. The talk will deal with these issues and new research that is needed to increase our knowledge on how the climate of our planet works and which climate we could have in the next decades. (author)

  12. Vulnerability of the Tibetan Pastoral Systems to Climate and Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate and global change on Tibetan pastoral systems have become increasingly evident. Thus, a significant research endeavor is to explore the combined effects of these changes on the livelihoods of herder households and communities, on the adaptation strategies they adopted to respond to the current and expected risks associated with these changes, and on the emerging opportunities that can strengthen their resilience and adaptive capacity. We performed an integrated analysis of the dynamics of Tibetan pastoral systems influenced by climate and global changes by using the analytical framework developed by Ostrom. Climate and global changes have significantly altered the attributes of and the interactions within Tibetan pastoral systems, thus posing great challenges to their sustainable development. We used Nagqu County, a remote area of the northern Tibetan Plateau of China, as a case study to analyze the adaptation strategies adopted by local herders to respond to multiple stressors, as well as the emerging opportunities that they can take advantage of to increase their adaptive capacity. Findings show that although local herders have developed various adaptation strategies, such as planting forage grass, buying fodder from the market, renting pastures, joining formal or informal cooperatives, and diversifying livelihoods, social, cultural, and institutional challenges still exist. To enhance the adaptive capacity of herders and to reduce their vulnerability, we recommend that future rangeland policies and programs promote: (1 comprehensive support for formal or informal pastoral cooperatives, (2 development of the rangeland economy to take advantage of the multifunctionalities of rangeland ecosystems, and (3 revitalization of the mobility paradigm to allow the flexible use of rangelands.

  13. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  14. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  15. Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

    2017-12-01

    Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more

  16. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

    2016-04-01

    potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, relocations (to airports) efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel air temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be global radiation, wind, humidity and cloud cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and wet-bulb temperature are potentially important. Metadata that describe the parallel measurements is as important as the data itself and will be collected as well. For example, the types of the instruments, their siting, height, maintenance, etc. Because they are widely used to study moderate extremes, we will compute the indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case the daily data cannot be shared, we would appreciate contributions containing these indices from parallel measurements. For more information: http://tinyurl.com/ISTI-Parallel

  17. The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

  18. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  19. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  20. Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance

  1. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  2. Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-05-01

    Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  4. Land-use change and global climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitz, V.

    2004-03-01

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  5. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arvai, J. [Environmental Science and Policy Program, and Dept. of CARRS, Michigan State University, 305 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Bridge, G. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (United States); Dolsak, N. [University of Washington, Bothell (United States); Franzese, R. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A. [Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (United States); Robbins, P. [University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (United States); Richards, K. [Indiana University, Terre Haute, Indiana (United States); Smith Korfmacher, K. [University of Rochester, Rochester (United States); Tansey, J. [Oxford University, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2006-09-15

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor.

  6. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvai, J.; Bridge, G.; Dolsak, N.; Franzese, R.; Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A.; Robbins, P.; Richards, K.; Smith Korfmacher, K.; Tansey, J.

    2006-01-01

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor

  7. Can the Global Adoption of Genetically Improved Farmed Fish Increase Beyond 10%, and How?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Olesen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The annual production from global aquaculture has increased rapidly from 2.6 million tons or 3.9% of the total supply of fish, shellfish and mollusks in 1970, to 66.7 million tons or 42.2% in 2012, while capture fisheries have more or less leveled out at about 90 million tons per year since the turn of the century. Consequently, the future seafood supply is likely to depend on a further increase of aquaculture production. Unlike terrestrial animal farming, less than 10% of the aquaculture production comes from domesticated and selectively bred farm stocks. This situation has substantial consequences in terms of poorer resource efficiency, poorer product quality and poorer animal welfare. The history of biological and technical challenges when establishing selective breeding programs for aquaculture is discussed, and it is concluded that most aquaculture species may now be domesticated and improved by selection. However, the adoption of selective breeding in aquaculture is progressing slowly. This paper reports on a study carried out in 2012 to identify key issues to address in promoting the development of genetically improved aquaculture stocks. The study involved semi structured interviews of 34 respondents from different sectors of the aquaculture society in East and Southeast Asia, where 76% of the global aquaculture production is located. Based on the interviews and literature review, three key factors are identified: (i long-term public commitment is often needed for financial support of the breeding nucleus operation (at least during the first five to ten generations of selection; (ii training at all levels (from government officers and university staff to breeding nucleus and hatchery operators, as well as farmers; and (iii development of appropriate business models for benefit sharing between the breeding, multiplier and grow-out operators (whether being public, cooperative or private operations. The public support should be invested in

  8. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  9. Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerman, Frank; Stanton, Elizabeth A.; Hope, Chris; Alberth, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review received widespread attention for its innovative approach to the economics of climate change when it appeared in 2006, and generated controversies that have continued to this day. One key controversy concerns the magnitude of the expected impacts of climate change. Stern's estimates, based on results from the PAGE2002 model, sounded substantially greater than those produced by many other models, leading several critics to suggest that Stern had inflated his damage figures. We reached the opposite conclusion in a recent application of PAGE2002 in a study of the costs to the US economy of inaction on climate change. This article describes our revisions to the PAGE estimates, and explains our conclusion that the model runs used in the Stern Review may well underestimate US and global damages. Stern's estimates from PAGE2002 implied that mean business-as-usual damages in 2100 would represent just 0.4 percent of GDP for the United States and 2.2 percent of GDP for the world. Our revisions and reinterpretation of the PAGE model imply that climate damages in 2100 could reach 2.6 percent of GDP for the United States and 10.8 percent for the world.

  10. Global climate change: A U.S. business community's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shales, J.

    1994-01-01

    Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO 2 , the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO 2 greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and the world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners

  11. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs

  12. Stormy weather: 101 solutions to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dauncey, G.; Mazza, P.

    2001-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to energy efficiency measures that would rid the world of the threat of global warming caused by the wasteful use of hydrocarbon fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The actions to be taken are not directed to governments and industry alone; indeed, the change must involve every segment of society to be effective. Accordingly, the book recommends actions that could be taken by individuals, citizen organizations, municipalities, businesses and organizations, energy companies, automobile companies, states and provinces, national governments, developing nations and global solutions. The recommendations range from choosing energy efficient appliances and buying green power, through increased recycling, reuse and reduced consumption, building solar and other renewable energy capacity, using sustainable fuels in automobiles, introducing tax measures favouring energy efficiency and sustainable development, to launching macro-level plans for a global green deal, establishing a global climate fund, accelerating the phase-out of CHCs, HCFCs and HFCs, forming a global ecological alliance and declaring a century of ecological restoration. Bibliographic notes, illustrations

  13. Homogeneity of a Global Multisatellite Soil Moisture Climate Data Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Chun-Hsu; Ryu, Dongryeol; Dorigo, Wouter; Zwieback, Simon; Gruber, Alexander; Albergel, Clement; Reichle, Rolf H.; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Climate Data Records (CDR) that blend multiple satellite products are invaluable for climate studies, trend analysis and risk assessments. Knowledge of any inhomogeneities in the CDR is therefore critical for making correct inferences. This work proposes a methodology to identify the spatiotemporal extent of the inhomogeneities in a 36-year, global multisatellite soil moisture CDR as the result of changing observing systems. Inhomogeneities are detected at up to 24 percent of the tested pixels with spatial extent varying with satellite changeover times. Nevertheless, the contiguous periods without inhomogeneities at changeover times are generally longer than 10 years. Although the inhomogeneities have measurable impact on the derived trends, these trends are similar to those observed in ground data and land surface reanalysis, with an average error less than 0.003 cubic meters per cubic meter per year. These results strengthen the basis of using the product for long-term studies and demonstrate the necessity of homogeneity testing of multisatellite CDRs in general.

  14. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

  15. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  16. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  17. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  18. China’s Peaceful Development and Global Climate Change: A Legal Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Tianbao

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, China has witnessed rapid socio-economic progress accompanied by serious environmental problems, such as climate change, which have had a major impact on the global environment and aroused international concern about China’s peaceful development. International law on climate change has taken shape with the core instruments of the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Under the current arrangement China is temporarily exempt from having to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs, although it will face strong pressure to commit to do so in the near future. In order to prepare for future challenges and to ensure peaceful development, it is proposed that China takes the initiative at the international level, participates in events and negotiations on implementation in respect of climate change, stresses the integration of state interests and the common interest of humankind, argues for the responsibility allocation principle of common but differentiated responsibilities of developed and developing countries, and undertakes international cooperation with regards to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM. At the national level, it is advisable that China persists in and develops a legal system that favours recycling and improves policies and laws on energy and resources with a view to consolidate the construction of a conservation-minded society.

  19. Global health equity and climate stabilisation: a common agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friel, Sharon; Marmot, Michael; McMichael, Anthony J; Kjellstrom, Tord; Vågerö, Denny

    2008-11-08

    Although health has improved for many people, the extent of health inequities between and within countries is growing. Meanwhile, humankind is disrupting the global climate and other life-supporting environmental systems, thereby creating serious risks for health and wellbeing, especially in vulnerable populations but ultimately for everybody. Underlying determinants of health inequity and environmental change overlap substantially; they are signs of an economic system predicated on asymmetric growth and competition, shaped by market forces that mostly disregard health and environmental consequences rather than by values of fairness and support. A shift is needed in priorities in economic development towards healthy forms of urbanisation, more efficient and renewable energy sources, and a sustainable and fairer food system. Global interconnectedness and interdependence enable the social and environmental determinants of health to be addressed in ways that will increase health equity, reduce poverty, and build societies that live within environmental limits.

  20. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  1. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2018-04-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  2. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  3. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  4. Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riahi, K.

    2008-01-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

  5. Experts' workshop on critical issues in the science of global climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    A summary is given of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association's Workshop on 'Critical issues in the science of global climate change' held in 1994. The topics of the panel sessions were (1) modelling global climate change: capabilities and limitations; (2)the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas concentrations; (3) other factors in predicting climate change; and (4) ecosystem response. (UK)

  6. Global energy efficiency governance in the context of climate politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, J.; Ivanova, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper argues that energy efficiency and conservation is a noncontroversial, critical, and equitable option for rich and poor alike. Although there is growing scientific and political consensus on its significance as an important option at global and national level, the political momentum for taking action is not commensurate with the potential in the sector or the urgency with which measures need to be taken to deal with climate change. The current global energy (efficiency) governance framework is diffuse. This paper submits that there are four substantive reasons why global governance should play a complementary role in promoting energy efficiency worldwide. Furthermore, given that market mechanisms are unable to rapidly mobilize energy efficiency projects and that there are no clear vested interests in this field which involves a large number of actors, there is need for a dedicated agency to promote energy efficiency and conservation. This paper provides an overview of energy efficiency options presented by IPCC, the current energy efficiency governance structure at global level, and efforts taken at supranational and national levels, and makes suggestions for a governance framework.

  7. Adoption of Technology as a Response Strategy to Globalization: A Study of Manufacturing Firms in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Solomon Kinyanjui; Margaret A. Oloko; Hazel G. Gachunga; Beatrice G. Gathondu

    2014-01-01

    Globalization affects local and international firms in many ways. Studies have shown that factors in the internal as well as external environments of firms influence the rate to which globalization will affect them. On the local scene however, no known studies have been done on the response of manufacturing firms to counter globalization. In addition, since the concept of globalization is multidimensional and its influence is varied in nature, this study aimed at investigating how manufacturi...

  8. Global Sectoral Industry Approaches to Climate Change. The Way Forward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stigson, B.; Egenhofer, C.; Fujiwara, N.

    2008-01-01

    The structure of some industrial sectors is so highly concentrated that just a handful of companies are responsible for producing a significant share of that sector's total greenhouse gases emissions worldwide. These sectors are thus a 'natural' focus of policy-makers concerned with climate change and have attracted keen interest from the EU. So-called 'sectoral approaches' are seen as having the potential to broaden the range of contributions by all parties, including emerging economies, to greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and to help moderate competitiveness concerns in trade-exposed industries. In particular, such approaches may help to quantify emissions on a sector-by-sector basis, building confidence that policies and measures can be put in place to reduce emissions. They can also help identify national or global commitments through the aggregation of sectoral data. While sectoral approaches allow policy-makers to concentrate on those individual sectors that contribute significantly to global emissions, they also pose a number of challenges. This CEPS Task Force Report identifies the principal issues associated with sectoral approaches - their rationale and the associated political dynamics - and gives an overview of existing approaches, the formulation of preconditions that would allow sectoral approaches to be implemented and an analysis of the potential interaction of sectoral approaches with existing climate change policies. The concluding chapter sketches a possible way forward

  9. Global climate change and the equity-efficiency puzzle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, Alan S.; Stephan, Gunter

    2005-01-01

    There is a broad consensus that the costs of abatement of global climate change can be reduced efficiently through the assignment of quota rights and through international trade in these rights. There is, however, no consensus on whether the initial assignment of emissions permits can affect the Pareto-optimal global level of abatement. This paper provides some insight into the equity-efficiency puzzle. Qualitative results are obtained from a small-scale model; then quantitative evidence of separability is obtained from MERGE, a multiregion integrated assessment model. It is shown that if all the costs of climate change can be expressed in terms of GDP losses, Pareto-efficient abatement strategies are independent of the initial allocation of emissions rights. This is the case sometimes described as 'market damages'. If, however, different regions assign different values to nonmarket damages such as species losses, different sharing rules may affect the Pareto-optimal level of greenhouse gas abatement. Separability may then be demonstrated only in specific cases (e.g. identical welfare functions or quasi-linearity of preferences or small shares of wealth devoted to abatement)

  10. Fighting windmills? EU industrial interest and global climate negotiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steiner Brand, U.; Tinggaard Svendsen, G.

    2003-01-01

    Why has the EU been so eager to continue the climate negotiations? Can it be solely attributed to the EU feeling morally obliged to be the main initiator of continued progress on the climate change negotiations, or can industrial interests in the EU, at least partly, explain the behaviour of the EU? We suggest that the EU has a rational economic interest in forcing the technological development of renewable energy sources to get a fast-mover advantage, which will only pay if a sufficient number of countries implement sufficiently stringent GHG reductions. The Kyoto Protocol, which imposes binding reductions on 38 OECD countries, implies that, as a first-mover, the EU will be to sell the necessary new renewable technologies, most prominently wind mills, to other countries, when they ratify and implement the Kyoto target levels. In the latest EU proposal made in Johannesburg, the EU pushed for setting a target of 15% of all energy to come from sources such as windmills, solar panels and waves by 2015. Such a target would further the EU's interests globally, and could explain, in economic terms, why the EU eagerly promotes GHG trade at a global level whereas the US has left the Kyoto agreement to save the import costs of buying the EU's renewable systems. (au)

  11. Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2015-01-01

    Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

  12. Impacts of continental arcs on global carbon cycling and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. T.; Jiang, H.; Carter, L.; Dasgupta, R.; Cao, W.; Lackey, J. S.; Lenardic, A.; Barnes, J.; McKenzie, R.

    2017-12-01

    On myr timescales, climatic variability is tied to variations in atmospheric CO2, which in turn is driven by geologic sources of CO2 and modulated by the efficiency of chemical weathering and carbonate precipitation (sinks). Long-term variability in CO2 has largely been attributed to changes in mid-ocean ridge inputs or the efficiency of global weathering. For example, the Cretaceous greenhouse is thought to be related to enhanced oceanic crust production, while the late Cenozoic icehouse is attributed to enhanced chemical weathering associated with the Himalayan orogeny. Here, we show that continental arcs may play a more important role in controlling climate, both in terms of sources and sinks. Continental arcs differ from island arcs and mid-ocean ridges in that the continental plate through which arc magmas pass may contain large amounts of sedimentary carbonate, accumulated over the history of the continent. Interaction of arc magmas with crustal carbonates via assimilation, reaction or heating can significantly add to the mantle-sourced CO2 flux. Detrital zircons and global mapping of basement rocks shows that the length of continental arcs in the Cretaceous was more than twice that in the mid-Cenozoic; maps also show many of these arcs intersected crustal carbonates. The increased length of continental arc magmatism coincided with increased oceanic spreading rates, placing convergent margins into compression, which favors continental arcs. Around 50 Ma, however, nearly all the continental arcs in Eurasia and North America terminated as India collided with Eurasia and the western Pacific rolled back, initiating the Marianas-Tonga-Kermadec intra-oceanic subduction complex and possibly leading to a decrease in global CO2 production. Meanwhile, extinct continental arcs continued to erode, resulting in regionally enhanced chemical weathering unsupported by magmatic fluxes of CO2. Continental arcs, during their magmatic lifetimes, are thus a source of CO2, driving

  13. Forum on Global Climate Strategies. Beyond 2012. The Route Ahead. Looking for a consensus framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Arriaga, E.; Linares, P.; Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2007-06-01

    The scientific knowledge on climate change has firmed up considerably. This has been made broadly known by the publication of the initial documents of the Fourth Assessment Report on global warming by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ample body of available scientific evidence now clearly indicates that climate change is serious and urgent. There is a generalized consensus from major academic, professional and political institutions about the importance of the climate change threat. This is more than enough to urge policy makers to put together a response that measures up to the challenge. A diversity of schemes and strategies to address climate change have been already identified and debated in public forums, so the challenges of a plausible long-term strategy, as well as the viewpoints of all countries, are now mostly explicit and known. Climate change can only be effectively tackled through broad participation in the global reduction effort by all present and future major emitters. Resolved political will is needed to make real progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There is a growing sense of urgency for stronger actions to curb the primary causes and to prepare for the consequences of global warming. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all Parties, especially the largest emitters, to join a global agreement and achieve sufficient reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to comply with art. 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Dialogue among the key international partners to explore global climate strategies is already being conducted in various international forums: formally under the UNFCC, but also within the G8 and other multilateral and bilateral meetings. Identification, analysis and proposals of alternatives are also being put forth in high-quality workshops run by universities and NGOs, with

  14. A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

    2018-03-01

    Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

  15. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  16. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    (note: acronym glossary at end of abstract) For scientists to have confidence in the veracity of data sets and computational processes not under their control, operational transparency must be much greater than previously required. Being able to have a universally understood and machine-readable language for describing such things as the completeness of metadata, data provenance and uncertainty, and the discrete computational steps in a complex process take on increased importance. OGC has been involved with technological issues associated with climate change since 2005 when we, along with the IEEE Committee on Earth Observation, began a close working relationship with GEO and GEOSS (http://earthobservations.org). GEO/GEOS provide the technology platform to GCOS who in turn represents the earth observation community to UNFCCC. OGC and IEEE are the organizers of the GEO/GEOSS Architecture Implementation Pilot (see http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIpilot). This continuing work involves closely working with GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization). This session reports on the findings of recent work within the OGC’s community of software developers and users to apply geospatial web services to the climate studies domain. The value of this work is to evolve OGC web services, moving from data access and query to geo-processing and workflows. Two projects will be described, the GEOSS API-2 and the CCIP. AIP is a task of the GEOSS Architecture and Data Committee. During its duration, two GEO Tasks defined the project: AIP-2 began as GEO Task AR-07-02, to lead the incorporation of contributed components consistent with the GEOSS Architecture using a GEO Web Portal and a Clearinghouse search facility to access services through GEOSS Interoperability Arrangements in support of the GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas. AIP-2 concluded as GEOS Task AR-09-01b, to develop and pilot new process and infrastructure components for the GEOSS Common

  17. Data Descriptor: TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    John T. Abatzoglou; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks; Katherine C. Hegewisch

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from...

  18. An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1995-01-01

    ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

  19. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  20. Climate Change Policy and the Adoption of Methane Digesters on Livestock Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Key, Nigel D.; Sneeringer, Stacy E.

    2011-01-01

    Methane digesters—biogas recovery systems that use methane from manure to generate electricity—have not been widely adopted in the United States because costs have exceeded benefits to operators. Burning methane in a digester reduces greenhouse gas emissions from manure management. A policy or program that pays producers for these emission reductions—through a carbon offset market or directly with payments—could increase the number of livestock producers who would profit from adopting a metha...

  1. Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

    2014-12-01

    The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

  2. At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas B. Fortini

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

  3. At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

    2017-01-01

    For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

  4. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

    2011-01-01

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  5. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  6. Using Argumentation to Foster Learning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2012-12-01

    Given the complexity of the science involving climate change (IPCC, 2007), its lack of curricular focus within US K-12 schooling (Golden, 2009), and the difficulty in effecting conceptual change in science (Vosniadou, 2007), we sought to research middle school students' conceptions about climate change, in addition to how those conceptions changed during and as a result of a deliberately designed global climate change (GCC) unit. In a sixth grade classroom, a unit was designed which incorporated Argumentation-Driven Inquiry (Sampson & Grooms, 2010). That is, students were assigned to groups and asked to make sense of standard GCC data such as paleoclimate data from ice cores, direct temperature measurement, and Keeling curves, in addition to learning about the greenhouse effect in a modeling lesson (Hocking, et al, 1993). The students were then challenged, in groups, to create, on whiteboards, explanations and defend these explanations to and with their peers. They did two iterations of this argumentation. The first iteration focused on the simple identification of climate change patterns. The second focused on developing causal explanations for those patterns. After two rounds of such argumentation, the students were then asked to write (individually) a "final" argument which accounted for the given data. Interview and written data were analyzed prior to the given unit, during it, and after it, in order to capture complicated nuance that might escape detection by simpler research means such as surveys. Several findings emerged which promised to be of interest to climate change educators. The first is that many students tended to "know" many "facts" about climate change, but were unable to connect these disparate facts in any meaningful ways. A second finding is that while no students changed their entire belief systems, even after a robust unit which would seemingly challenge such, each student engaged did indeed modify the manner in which they discussed the

  7. The Environmental, Social, Governance, and Financial Performance Effects on Companies that Adopt the United Nations Global Compact

    OpenAIRE

    Eduardo Ortas; Igor Álvarez; Ainhoa Garayar

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate companies’ environmental, social, governance (ESG), and financial implications of their commitment to the United Nations Global Compact (UNGC). The focus is placed on companies operating in the three countries with the highest number of UNGC participants: Spain, France, and Japan. The results clearly reveal that adoption of the UNGC often requires an organizational change that fosters stakeholder engagement, ultimately resulting in improvements in companies’ ESG...

  8. Global Climate Models Intercomparison of Anthropogenic Aerosols Effects on Regional Climate over North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.; Ming, Y.; Lin, Y.; Pan, B.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols can alter atmospheric radiation and cloud physics, which further exert impacts on weather and global climate. With the development and industrialization of the developing Asian countries, anthropogenic aerosols have received considerable attentions and remain to be the largest uncertainty in the climate projection. Here we assess the performance of two stat-of-art global climate models (National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 3 (AM3)) in simulating the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on North Pacific storm track region. By contrasting two aerosol scenarios, i.e. present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), both models show aerosol optical depth (AOD) enhanced by about 22%, with CAM5 AOD 40% lower in magnitude due to the long range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol effects on the ice water path (IWP), stratiform precipitation, convergence and convection strengths in the two models are distinctive in patterns and magnitudes. AM3 shows qualitatively good agreement with long-term satellite observations, while CAM5 overestimates convection and liquid water path resulting in an underestimation of large-scale precipitation and IWP. Due to coarse resolution and parameterization in convection schemes, both models' performance on convection needs to be improved. Aerosols performance on large-scale circulation and radiative budget are also examined in this study.

  9. Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aini, M.S.; Chan, S.C.; Syuhaily, O.

    2013-01-01

    Energy conservation can be achieved through the adoption of technical measures or the changing of one's behaviour. A survey of 201 Malaysian public personnel was conducted to examine the predictors of these two types of transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the relative acceptability of both behavioural measures with respect to gender, level of education, income, knowledge of climate change and attitude. Gender, knowledge of causes of climate change and personal norm were predictors for the acceptability of technical measures, while perceived efficacy and personal norm were the factors that influenced the acceptability of behavioural measures. The results also indicated that distinctions ought to be made between technology adoption and behaviour modifications that require lifestyle changes when assessing pro-environmental intent behaviour. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. - Highlights: • A survey was conducted to examine acceptability of transport energy-saving measures. • Gender, knowledge of causes, efficacy and personal norm are predictors of technical measures. • Personal norm and perceived efficacy influenced acceptability of behavioural change. • Both measures are strongly correlated to psychological factors than to socio-demographic variables

  10. Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitz, V

    2004-03-15

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  11. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  12. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  13. Thirteen Plus One. A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldy, J.E.; Barrett, S.; Stavins, R.N.

    2003-07-01

    We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is t oo little, too fast ; developing countries should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance

  14. Thirteen plus one. A comparison of global climate policy architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldy, Joseph E.; Barrett, Scott; Stavins, Robert N.

    2003-01-01

    We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is 'too little, too fast'; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance

  15. Adoption and compliance in second-hand smoking bans: a global econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Richard; Neumayer, Eric

    2014-10-01

    We examine the determinants governing both countries' enactment of smoking bans in public places and their ability to successfully put these bans into effect. Using a large sample (N = 99-184) of low-, middle- and high-income countries, econometric techniques are used to estimate the influence of several variables on cross-national variations in the adoption and compliance of second-hand smoke laws (2010). We find similarities in the determinants of adoption and compliance. Yet more notable are the differences, with several political economy factors which have a statistically significant influence on countries' level of compliance with existing smoke-free laws in public places found not to consistently influence their propensity to adopt bans in the first place. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are that governments are motivated to adopt smoking bans for reasons other than protecting the health of their citizens and that the real costs of smoking bans are predominantly borne at the compliance stage. More effort needs to be made to ensure that governments realize their existing policy commitments through effective enforcement of bans.

  16. Global ocean monitoring for the World Climate Research Programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revelle, R; Bretherton, F

    1986-07-01

    Oceanic research and modelling for the World Climate Research Program will utilize several recently-developed instruments and measuring techniques as well as well-tested, long-used instruments. Ocean-scanning satellites will map the component of the ocean-surface topography related to ocean currents and mesoscale eddies and to fluctuating water volumes caused by ocean warming and cooling. Other satellite instruments will measure the direction and magnitude of wind stress on the sea surface, surface water temperatures, the distribution of chlorophyll and other photosynthetic pigments, the characteristics of internal waves, and possible precipitation over the ocean. Networks of acoustic transponders will obtain a three-dimensional picture of the distribution of temperature from the surface down to mid-depth and of long-term changes in temperature at depth. Ocean research vessels will determine the distribution and fate of geochemical tracers and will also make high-precision, deep hydrographic casts. Ships of opportunity, using expendable instruments, will measure temperature, salinity and currents in the upper water layers. Drifting and anchored buoys will also measure these properties as well as those of the air above the sea surface. Tide gauges installed on islands and exposed coastal locations will measure variations in monthly and shorter-period mean sea level. These tide gauges will provide 'ground truth' for the satellite maps of sea-surface topography, and will also determine variations in ocean currents and temperature.All these instruments will be used in several major programs, the most ambitious of which is the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) designed to obtain global measurements of major currents throughout the world ocean, greater understanding of the transformation of water masses, and the role of advective, convective, and turbulent processes in exchange of properties between surface and deep-ocean layers.A five- to ten-year experiment

  17. International climate protection legislation. The way towards a global climate agreement in the sense of common but differentiated responsibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahrmarkt, Lena

    2016-01-01

    Climate Change is one of the most important issues in the 21st century. Its extensive impacts regarding society, policy, economy and environment and its threats require an effective reaction at the international level. But does the newly adopted Paris Agreement comply to the expectations? Or how could an effective Climate Agreement be achieved to meet climate effectiveness and climate justice? To answer these questions this study analyses the development of international climate change law in a comprehensive way. In combination with analysing the principle of common, but differentiated responsibility it is possible to present new aspects for a climate Agreement by learning from failures of the past and embracing the raising threat brought about by climate change.

  18. Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

  19. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  20. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  1. Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-07-15

    The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

  2. Adoption and Impact of OER in the Global South | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    12 déc. 2017 ... Education in the Global South faces several key interrelated ... These challenges include unequal access to education; variable quality of educational ... open online courses (MOOC) research in the Digital Learning for ...

  3. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  4. Climate Change Adopted Building Envelope as A Protector of Human Health in the Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januszkiewicz, Krystyna

    2017-10-01

    Recently, an expanded understanding of building performance acknowledges that all forces acting on buildings (climate, energies, information, and human agents) are not static and fixed, but rather mutable and transient. With the use of parametric and multi-criteria optimization digital tools, buildings’ envelopes can be designed to respond to various requirements. This paper explores the possibilities of architectural design to benefit human conditions, which encompasses mental well-being, environmental quality of life during the Climate Change era. The first part of the paper defines the main factors (such as: lack of green nature and sunlight, noise and pollution) which are influencing the formation of psychological disorder in big cities. The negative impact of these factors is constantly increasing in the time of Climate Change progressing. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by author. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights a social problem, such as mental well-being, resulting from urbanization or effects of the climate change, and serves as a useful background for further research on the possibilities of redefining sustainable and human friendly design.

  5. Adopting the euro: Romanian perspectives in the context of the global financial crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oros, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to examine Romania’s capacity to fulfil the nominal convergence criteria in the current context, in order to follow the calendar proposed for euro adoption in 2015. The paper analyzed the evolution of all five criteria under the impact of the current financial crisis and also looked at the forecast provided by national and international authorities. The study was conducted considering the relative situation with the euro area. The main finding is that the actual target for euro adoption could be complied with, provided further progress is made. We have also fond that the target should be achieved as it would represent a strong stimulus for the local government to implement additional measures to reduce public indebtedness and inflationary pressure.

  6. Adoption of Small-Scale Irrigation Farming as a Climate-Smart Agriculture Practice and Its Influence on Household Income in the Chinyanja Triangle, Southern Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Nelson Mango; Clifton Makate; Lulseged Tamene; Powell Mponela; Gift Ndengu

    2018-01-01

    This article is concerned with the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming as a climate-smart agriculture practice and its influence on household income in the Chinyanja Triangle. Chinyanja Triangle is a region that is increasingly experiencing mid-season dry spells and an increase in occurrence of drought, which is attributed largely to climate variability and change. This poses high agricultural production risks, which aggravate poverty and food insecurity. For this region, adoption of s...

  7. Adoption of Small-Scale Irrigation Farming as a Climate-Smart Agriculture Practice and Its Influence on Household Income in the Chinyanja Triangle, Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Mango

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This article is concerned with the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming as a climate-smart agriculture practice and its influence on household income in the Chinyanja Triangle. Chinyanja Triangle is a region that is increasingly experiencing mid-season dry spells and an increase in occurrence of drought, which is attributed largely to climate variability and change. This poses high agricultural production risks, which aggravate poverty and food insecurity. For this region, adoption of small-scale irrigation farming as a climate-smart agriculture practice is very important. Through a binary logistic and ordinary least squares regression, this article determines factors that influence the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming as a climate-smart agriculture practice and its influence on income among smallholder farmers. The results show that off-farm employment, access to irrigation equipment, access to reliable water sources and awareness of water conservation practices, such as rainwater harvesting, have a significant influence on the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming. On the other hand, the farmer’s age, distance travelled to the nearest market and nature of employment negatively influence the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming decisions. Ordinary least squares regression results showed that the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming as a climate-smart agriculture practice has a significant positive influence on agricultural income. We therefore conclude that to empower smallholder farmers to respond quickly to climate variability and change, practices that will enhance the adoption of small-scale irrigation farming in the Chinyanja Triangle are critical, as this will significantly affect agricultural income. In terms of policy, we recommend that the governments of Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique, which cover the Chinyanja Triangle, formulate policies that will enhance the adoption of sustainable small scale

  8. AN ANALYSIS OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND THE PROCESS TO ADOPT GLOBAL SOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moema Pereira Nunes

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyze the adoption of GS by Brazilian companies in terms of organizational structure and process of GS in order to identify what is differencing the experience of these companies and the previously knowledge related with GS. A case-based qualitative research was developed. Four Brazilian companies were investigated. Data were collect interviews and a content analysis was made. Regarding the organizational structure, it was identified that the firm’s industry sector influence in the adoption of GS. It confirms the assumption that the environment plays an important role in emerging countries. The need of innovation and the geographic concentration in an industry sector were identified as influences in the organizational structure to adopt GS. The need of scale in the purchasing process was perceived as an influence in the process of GS. The investigated companies presented a non-structure process of GS, what reduce the opportunity to learn with GS as part of the process may not be monitored.

  9. The climate-energy contribution. Understand it, and you will adopt it

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-10-01

    This publication explains why the climate-energy contribution has a crucial role in the protection of climate, how everybody should be concerned, and whether it's a constraint or an opportunity for a successful energy transition. It outlines that this contribution is an application of the 'polluter pays' principle, describes how this contribution can be efficient and fair (all energies and all sectors are concerned). It briefly describes how revenues can be redistributed and how to invest in energy transition. By referring to some European countries (UK, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland), it outlines that this contribution has already been implemented, and that it could be a tool for innovation and jobs. It indicates the impact of this contribution on households (costs for housing and for mobility, possible actions to reduce energy consumption in housing and in mobility practices)

  10. From Rio to Rio: a global carbon price signal to escape the great climate inconsistency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dion, Stephane; Laurent, Eloi

    2012-05-01

    Two decades after the 1992 Rio Conference, we must admit to collective failure in combating human-induced climate change. The problem is not that no efforts have been undertaken, but that these efforts have just not been enough. We cannot escape serious climate disruption - which, to some extent, has already begun - if we keep going down that road. We must change direction, and we must move quickly. To this end, we call in this paper for a fine-tuning of the international negotiations on climate. We propose refocusing these international efforts on negotiating a global carbon price signal, harmonized in principle but flexible in practice, instead of doggedly spending the next few years attempting to convince countries to accept stricter national targets for quantitative reduction of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We cannot afford to spend the next few years missing the wrong targets. Simply put, we must move away, collectively, from an ineffective logic of constraint to a pragmatic logic of price incentives. The December 2011 Durban Conference proved, once again, that the 'to each their own target' approach does not work. We must instead adopt a 'one price signal for all' strategy. If there were a single reason to improve the current mitigation logic, it would be this evident fact: developing countries, which now account for 60% of emissions worldwide, cannot accept what they perceive as an obstacle to their economic development, when developed countries have been able to get rich on unlimited use of fossil fuel energy. Indeed, in the foreseeable future, emerging economies, particularly China and India with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual growth rates of between 8% and 10%, will not accept absolute reduction targets for GHG emissions. On the other hand, these countries might be more open to the idea of a flexible levy of a price per tonne of carbon dioxide, a price from which they would derive revenues, and which their economic

  11. The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

  12. Acting locally, developing knowledge globally: a transitions perspective on designing climate change adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grin, J.; Driessen, J.; Leroy, P.; van Vierssen, W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change, from many perspectives and for many reasons, is a complex issue: scientifically, politically, and in terms of global justice. As such, climate change might be the global societal and political challenge of the 21st century. Dealing with it, either via mitigation or via adaptation,

  13. Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

    2005-01-01

    The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

  14. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  15. Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph. Buongiorno

    2016-01-01

    This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

  16. Transnational Climate Change Governance and the Global South

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Sander; van Asselt, Harro; Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik

    2018-01-01

    Alongside intergovernmental climate change negotiations, a groundswell of climate actions by cities, regions, businesses, investors, and civil society groups has emerged. These transnational actors seek to address mitigation and adaptation to climate change; independently, with each other and with governments and international organizations. Many have welcomed transnational climate initiatives as a crucial addition to the formal climate regime, contributing to a growing momentum to act on cli...

  17. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  18. 1.2 million years of climate change, globally and in the Mediterranean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis we make a detailed reconstruction of climate changes based on materials from the Mediterranean Sea. Not only does this provide new insights in climate changes in the Mediterranean region, the aim is to improve our understanding of global climate changes as well. We created a single

  19. Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: China's explorations in a global governance landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Monkelbaan

    2014-12-01

    As a way forward, different approaches towards the governance of trade and climate change will be highlighted. Besides discussing the specific aspects of Chinese participation in global trade and climate change governance, this paper aims at offering broader insights into the nexus between trade, energy and climate governance in China.

  20. Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cornelissen, J.H.C.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Aerts, R.; Gallaghan, T.V.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Alatalo, J.; Chapin, F.S. III; Gerdol, R.; Gudmundsson, J.; Gwynn-Jones, D.; Hartley, A.E.; Hik, D.S.; Hofgaard, A.; Jonsdottir, I.S.; Karlsson, S.; Klein, J.A.; Laundre, J.; Magnusson, B.; Michelsel, A.; Molau, U.; Onipchenko, V.G.; Quested, H.M.; Sandvik, S.M.; Schmidt, I.K.; Shaver, G.R.; Solhleim, B.; Soudzilovskaia, N.A.; Stenstrom, A.; Tolvanen, A.; Totland, O.; Wada, N.; Welker, J.M.; Zhao, X.; Team, M.O.L.

    2007-01-01

    Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition.

  1. What's in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of "climate change" and "global warming"

    OpenAIRE

    Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on findings from a survey of public understanding of climate change and global warming amongst residents in the south of England. Whereas much previous research has relied on survey checklists to measure public understanding of climate change, this study employed a more qualitative approach to reveal participants' unprompted conceptions of climate change and global warming. Overall, the findings show a tendency for the public to dissociate themselves from the causes, impact...

  2. Global Climate Change (GCC) Issues and Their Impacts on the US Army Corps of Engineers

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-11-01

    Figure 24: The Great Plains scenario POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE 70 Agriculture Clmate change could: *decreae. corn and soybean yields In...AD-A247 279 ____________ GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE us A (GCC) ISSUES AND THEIRoUS ;T AryL ors IM PACTS ON THE US ARMY Topographic Engineering CenerCORPS...blank) 12. AEPGAT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED 1 29 Nov 91 SPECIAL REPORT 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ,. FUNDING NUMBERS Global Climate Change (GCC

  3. The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

    1994-01-01

    IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

  4. Global travel within the 2 °C climate target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girod, Bastien; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Deetman, Sebastiaan

    2012-01-01

    Long-term scenarios generally project a steep increase in global travel demand, leading to an rapid rise in CO 2 emissions. Major driving forces are the increasing car use in developing countries and the global growth in air travel. Meeting the 2 °C climate target, however, requires a deep cut in CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we explore how extensive emission reductions may be achieved, using a newly developed travel model. This bottom-up model covers 26 world regions, 7 travel modes and different vehicle types. In the experiments, we applied a carbon tax and looked into the model’s responses in terms of overall travel demand, modal split shifts, and changes in technology and fuel choice. We introduce two main scenarios in which biofuels are assumed to be carbon neutral (not subject to taxation, scenario A) or to lead to some greenhouse gas emissions (and therefore subject to taxation, scenario B). This leads to very different outcomes. Scenario A achieves emission reductions mostly through changes in fuel use. In Scenario B efficiency improvement and model split changes also play a major role. In both scenarios total travel volume is affected only marginally. - Highlights: ► This study evaluates deep reduction in direct CO 2 emissions of passenger transportation. ► The TRAVEL model is used to derive cost optimal scenarios. ► TRAVEL considers changes in fuel use, energy efficiency and mode split. ► Emissions reductions in line with the 2 °C target are feasible. ► Despite high carbon tax resulting reduction in travel demand is low.

  5. Strategies to enable the adoption of animal biotechnology to sustainably improve global food safety and security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizard, Mark; Hallerman, Eric; Fahrenkrug, Scott; Newell-McGloughlin, Martina; Gibson, John; de Loos, Frans; Wagner, Stefan; Laible, Götz; Han, Jae Yong; D'Occhio, Michael; Kelly, Lisa; Lowenthal, John; Gobius, Kari; Silva, Primal; Cooper, Caitlin; Doran, Tim

    2016-10-01

    The ability to generate transgenic animals has existed for over 30 years, and from those early days many predicted that the technology would have beneficial applications in agriculture. Numerous transgenic agricultural animals now exist, however to date only one product from a transgenic animal has been approved for the food chain, due in part to cumbersome regulations. Recently, new techniques such as precision breeding have emerged, which enables the introduction of desired traits without the use of transgenes. The rapidly growing human population, environmental degradation, and concerns related to zoonotic and pandemic diseases have increased pressure on the animal agriculture sector to provide a safe, secure and sustainable food supply. There is a clear need to adopt transgenic technologies as well as new methods such as gene editing and precision breeding to meet these challenges and the rising demand for animal products. To achieve this goal, cooperation, education, and communication between multiple stakeholders-including scientists, industry, farmers, governments, trade organizations, NGOs and the public-is necessary. This report is the culmination of concepts first discussed at an OECD sponsored conference and aims to identify the main barriers to the adoption of animal biotechnology, tactics for navigating those barriers, strategies to improve public perception and trust, as well as industry engagement, and actions for governments and trade organizations including the OECD to harmonize regulations and trade agreements. Specifically, the report focuses on animal biotechnologies that are intended to improve breeding and genetics and currently are not routinely used in commercial animal agriculture. We put forward recommendations on how scientists, regulators, and trade organizations can work together to ensure that the potential benefits of animal biotechnology can be realized to meet the future needs of agriculture to feed the world.

  6. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  7. Advancement of the climate dual strategy. New concepts for a globally effective climate protection; Weiterentwicklung der baden-wuerttembergischen Klimadoppelstrategie. Neue Konzepte fuer einen global wirksamen Klimaschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-10-15

    The Baden-Wuerttemberg Council on Sustainable Development (Stuttgart, Federal Republic of Germany) presents a climate expert report with new concepts for a globally effective climate protection. First of all, the development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide since 1990 is described. The development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide up to 2050 is forecasted. Four general criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, fairness and acceptance) for a comparative evaluation of climate protection concepts are introduced. A proposal for solution on the basis of a globally effective cap-and-trade system as well as an identical scenario as an alternative with respect to the implementation are described. This alternative scenario is based on a cap-and-trade system but it develops on the basis of national self-commitment in accordance with an incentive and sanctionative system. Both implementation proposals are compared. Recommendations of the national government Baden-Wuerttemberg are given.

  8. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  9. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2010-01-01

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

  10. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, Tommi [TKK Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, FIN-02044 VTT (Finland); Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Cologne (Germany)

    2010-04-15

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either or from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. (author)

  11. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  12. Paradigms of global climate change and sustainable development: Issues and related policies

    OpenAIRE

    Prabhat Kumar Rai; Prashant Kumar Rai

    2013-01-01

    Combating climate change is intimately linked with peace and resource equity. Therefore, critical link establishment between climate change and sustainable development is extremely relevant in global scenario. Following the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the international sustainable development agenda was taken up by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD); the climate change agenda was carried forward by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). International and local c...

  13. Proper indoor climate by the adoption of advanced wood burning stoves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luis Teles de Carvalho, Ricardo; Jensen, Ole Michael; Skreiberg, Oeyvind

    2014-01-01

    The indoor emission of (ultra)fine particles and overheating from wood-burning stoves are crucial problems in modern houses when wood is used for heating. The main cause for indoor particle emission is the interaction between user and stove when lighting and refilling the stove. The main causes...... for overheating are a high thermal insulation level of the house and high (peak) wattage of the stove. This research aims to understand how low wattage stoves with a computer added device and water jacket will perform on the indoor air quality as proper heating appliances for low energy houses. Two field studies...... were designed to compare the influence of the auto-pilot device and water jacket on the indoor climate. The first experiments were conducted in 8 renovated detached houses using certified stoves while the following experiments were conducted in 4 low energy houses using modern and advanced stoves...

  14. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-01-01

    . The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial

  15. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shongwe, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

  16. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  17. Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Obersteiner, Michael; Johansson, Daniel J.A.; Szolgayova, Jana

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a real options model where multiple options are evaluated simultaneously so that the effect of the individual options on each other is accounted for. We apply this model to the electricity sector, where we analyze three typical technologies based on fossil fuel, fossil fuel with carbon capture and renewable energy, respectively. In this way, we can analyze the transition from CO 2 -intensive to CO 2 -neutral electricity production in the face of rising and uncertain CO 2 prices. In addition, such a modelling approach enables us to estimate precisely the expected value of (perfect) information, i.e. the willingness of investors and producers to pay for information about the correct CO 2 price path. As can be expected, the expected value of information rises with increasing CO 2 price uncertainty. In addition, the larger the price uncertainty, the larger are the cumulative CO 2 emissions over the coming century. The reason for this is that the transition to less CO 2 -intensive technologies is increasingly postponed with rising CO 2 price uncertainty. By testing different price processes (geometric Brownian motion versus jump processes with different jump frequencies), we can also make useful recommendations concerning the importance of policy predictability. We find that it is better to have climate change policies that are stable over a certain length of time and change abruptly than less abrupt but more frequently changing policies. Less frequent fluctuations reduce the expected value of information and result in smaller cumulative CO 2 emissions. (author)

  18. National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, K.H.

    2006-01-01

    This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...

  19. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  20. Challenges and solutions for adoption of advanced cycles for power generation in today's business climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brockway, D.

    2002-01-01

    plant in Victoria and South Australia. In order to minimise the impact of new coal fired power generation on the environment, advanced cycle power generation systems must be developed and demonstrated to be commercially viable in the current business climate. The potential greenhouse gas abatement expected from advanced cycles for power generation is illustrated in Figure 1 for high moisture brown coal. While there remains a considerable amount of R and D to be completed on the development of advanced cycles, the principal challenge for the implementation of these technologies in the future is a consequence of the manner in which the power generation industry has developed worldwide over the last decade or so. That is, the technical knowledge for the implementation of these technologies is available or will be in the next few years. The principal challenge is not research and development of the technologies but rather creation of a business climate where the risk and cost hurdles to their introduction can be overcome

  1. NASA/JPL CLIMATE DAY: Middle and High School Students Get the Facts about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Annie; Callery, Susan; Srinivasan, Margaret

    2013-04-01

    In 2007, NASA Headquarters requested that Earth Science outreach teams brainstorm new education and public outreach activities that would focus on the topic of global climate change. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Annie Richardson, outreach lead for the Ocean Surface Topography missions came up with the idea of a "Climate Day", capitalizing on the popular Earth Day name and events held annually throughout the world. JPL Climate Day would be an education and public outreach event whose objectives are to provide the latest scientific facts about global climate change - including the role the ocean plays in it, the contributions that NASA/JPL satellites and scientists make to the body of knowledge on the topic, and what we as individuals can do to promote global sustainability. The primary goal is that participants get this information in a fun and exciting environment, and walk away feeling empowered and capable of confidently engaging in the global climate debate. In March 2008, JPL and its partners held the first Climate Day event. 950 students from seven school districts heard from five scientists; visited exhibits, and participated in hands-on-activities. Pleased with the outcome, we organized JPL Climate Day 2010 at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California, reaching more than 1700 students, teachers, and members of the general public over two days. Taking note of this successful model, NASA funded a multi-center, NASA Climate Day proposal in 2010 to expand Climate Day nation-wide. The NASA Climate Day proposal is a three-pronged project consisting of a cadre of Earth Ambassadors selected from among NASA-affiliated informal educators; a "Climate Day Kit" consisting of climate-related electronic resources available to the Earth Ambassadors; and NASA Climate Day events to be held in Earth Ambassador communities across the United States. NASA/JPL continues to host the original Climate Day event and in 2012 held its 4th event, at the Pasadena

  2. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  3. Identify: Improving industrial energy efficiency and mitigating global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazarus, M.; Hill, D.; Cornland, D.W.; Heaps, C.; Hippel, D. von; Williams, R.

    1997-07-01

    The use of energy in the industrial sectors of nations with both industrialized and developing economies will continue to be, a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. The patterns of industrial-sector energy use--energy provided primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels-have shifted both within the between countries in recent decades. Projections of future energy use and carbon-dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions suggest continued shifts in these patterns, as industrial production in developed countries stabilizes and declines, while industrial output in the developing world continues to expand. This expansion of industrial-sector activity and CO{sub 2} emissions in developing countries presents both a challenge and an opportunity. To seize this opportunity and contribute to international efforts to mitigate global climate change, the United National Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recently initiated a two-phase effort to help improve the efficiency of energy-intensive industries (iron and steel, chemicals, refining, paper and pulp, and cement) in developing countries. As part of the Phase I, the authors reviewed industrial sector scenarios and to initiated development of a software-based toolkit for identifying and assessing GHG mitigating technologies. This toolkit, called IDENTIFY, is comprised of a technology inventory and a companion economic analysis tool. In addition, UNIDO commissioned institutions in India, South Africa, and Argentina to review energy use patterns and savings opportunities in selected industries across nine developing countries, and contribute to the development of the IDENTIFY toolkit. UNIDO is now preparing to launch Phase 2, which will focus on full development and dissemination of the IDENTIFY toolkit through seminars and case studies around the world. This paper describes Phase 1 of the UNIDO project.

  4. Identify: Improving industrial energy efficiency and mitigating global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazarus, M.; Hill, D.; Cornland, D.W.; Heaps, C.; Hippel, D. von; Williams, R.

    1997-01-01

    The use of energy in the industrial sectors of nations with both industrialized and developing economies will continue to be, a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. The patterns of industrial-sector energy use--energy provided primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels-have shifted both within the between countries in recent decades. Projections of future energy use and carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions suggest continued shifts in these patterns, as industrial production in developed countries stabilizes and declines, while industrial output in the developing world continues to expand. This expansion of industrial-sector activity and CO 2 emissions in developing countries presents both a challenge and an opportunity. To seize this opportunity and contribute to international efforts to mitigate global climate change, the United National Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recently initiated a two-phase effort to help improve the efficiency of energy-intensive industries (iron and steel, chemicals, refining, paper and pulp, and cement) in developing countries. As part of the Phase I, the authors reviewed industrial sector scenarios and to initiated development of a software-based toolkit for identifying and assessing GHG mitigating technologies. This toolkit, called IDENTIFY, is comprised of a technology inventory and a companion economic analysis tool. In addition, UNIDO commissioned institutions in India, South Africa, and Argentina to review energy use patterns and savings opportunities in selected industries across nine developing countries, and contribute to the development of the IDENTIFY toolkit. UNIDO is now preparing to launch Phase 2, which will focus on full development and dissemination of the IDENTIFY toolkit through seminars and case studies around the world. This paper describes Phase 1 of the UNIDO project

  5. Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, R.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

    2013-01-01

    The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century

  6. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  7. Global climate change and above- belowground insect herbivore interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Wesley McKenzie

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Predicted changes to the Earth’s climate are likely to affect above-belowground interactions. Our understanding is limited, however, by past focus on two-species aboveground interactions mostly ignoring belowground influences. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence showing how climate change will affect above-belowground interactions. The responses of above- and belowground organisms to climate change are likely to differ given the fundamentally different niches they inhabit. Yet there are few studies that address the biological and ecological reactions of belowground herbivores to environmental conditions in current and future climates. Even fewer studies investigate the consequences of climate change for above-belowground interactions between herbivores and other organisms; those that do provide no evidence of a directed response. This paper highlights the importance of considering the belowground fauna when making predictions on the effects of climate change on plant-mediated interspecific interactions.

  8. Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

  9. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  10. Cosmic rays and space weather. Effects on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorman, L.I.; Israel Space Agency; Russian Academy of Sciences

    2012-01-01

    We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate. (orig.)

  11. Keynote speech Global climate change: Challenges and opportunities

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    If 80% of emissions are cut by 2050, with a peak date of 2015, increased amphibian extinction is still likely to occur by 2100. If the peak date is delayed to 2035, 20% to 30% of all ... He compared this to climate change, introducing the concept of systemic risks for Earth systems. Outlining the impacts at dangerous climate ...

  12. Global climate change through CO2 emissions - fact or fiction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metzner, H.

    1994-01-01

    'Horror scenarios' of an imminent climate disaster have for long been dominating the media and giving rise to insecurity and fear. The present article deals critically with these visions and makes a realistic assessment of the present climate situation based on plain scientific facts. (orig.) [de

  13. Teaching about Climate Change: Cool Schools Tackle Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Tim, Ed.; Littlejohn, Gail, Ed.

    Within the last couple of decades, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased significantly due to human activities. Today climate change is an important issue for humankind. This book provides a starting point for educators to teach about climate change, although there are obstacles caused by the industrialized…

  14. Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Florke, M.F.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  15. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Schewe, J.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Wisser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  16. A Global Carbon Levy for Climate Change Adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leuenberger, Moritz [President of the Swiss Confederation (Switzerland)

    2006-11-15

    Climate change is happening, here and now. We are tied together by melting glaciers in Africa and in Europe, by floods in America and in Asia, and by droughts and shortages of fresh water in Australia and Africa. And we are tied by a joint responsibility to combat climate change around the world and help those affected by it.

  17. Climate Change and Global Warming: Implications for Sub-Saharan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study reviews the potential threats of climate change in sub-Sahara Africa. It paints a picture of how the major green house gases (GHGs)-CO2, CH4 will grow in the sub-continent before the year 2015. The study also highlights the potential causes of climate change in the sub-continent based on anthropogenic and ...

  18. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  19. The Environmental, Social, Governance, and Financial Performance Effects on Companies that Adopt the United Nations Global Compact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ortas

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate companies’ environmental, social, governance (ESG, and financial implications of their commitment to the United Nations Global Compact (UNGC. The focus is placed on companies operating in the three countries with the highest number of UNGC participants: Spain, France, and Japan. The results clearly reveal that adoption of the UNGC often requires an organizational change that fosters stakeholder engagement, ultimately resulting in improvements in companies’ ESG performance. Additionally, the results reveal that ESG performance has a significant impact on financial performance for companies that adopted the principles of the UNGC. These findings provide both non-financial and financial incentives to companies to commit to this voluntary corporate social responsibility (CSR initiative, which will have important implications on companies’ strategic management policies that aim to foster sustainable businesses and community development. Finally, the linkages between the UNGC-committed companies’ ESG and financial performance may be influenced by geographical spread, mainly due to the appearance of differences in the institutional, societal, and cultural settings.

  20. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  1. Reduce growth rate of light-duty vehicle travel to meet 2050 global climate goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sager, Jalel; Apte, Joshua S; Lemoine, Derek M; Kammen, Daniel M, E-mail: jalel.sager@berkeley.edu, E-mail: japte@berkeley.edu, E-mail: dlemoine@berkeley.edu, E-mail: daniel.kammen@gmail.com [Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-04-15

    Strong policies to constrain increasing global use of light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) should complement fuel efficiency and carbon intensity improvements in order to meet international greenhouse gas emission and climate targets for the year 2050.

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  3. Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldey, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

  4. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  5. The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Renée Mozell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

  6. Global climate change: a synopsis of current activities in the Office of Fossil Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South, D.W.; Kane, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the US DOE Office of Fossil Energy investigation and monitoring of several aspects of global climate change as it relates to fossil fuels. The paper consists of the overheads from the presentation. The topics of this paper include greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, scientific uncertainties, legislation and protocols, mitigation strategies and policies, energy and economic impacts, and the role of clean coal technologies and fossil fuels in global climate change

  7. Deterioration and modification of the biosphere leading to irreversible climatic change of the global ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    The level, intensity, nature and impact of man's activities upon weather and climatic changes are explored. It is shown that industrialization leads to increased CO2 levels, atmospheric dust content and land surfaces changes. This in turn causes global climatic interactions which results in a general cooling trend. Global cooperation is advocated to stem environmental degradation and weather pattern interruption by the use of corrective mechanisms.

  8. Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

    2009-01-01

    Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

  9. Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, W.; Tian, H.

    2015-12-01

    New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

  10. Australian Medical Students' Association Global Health Essay Competition - Global climate change, geo-engineering and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyages, Costa S

    2013-10-07

    Rio+20's proposed Sustainable Development Goals have the potential to redefine the course of international action on climate change. They recognise that environmental health is inextricably linked with human health, and that environmental sustainability is of paramount importance in safeguarding global health. Competition entrants were asked to discuss ways of making global health a central component of international sustainable development initiatives and environmental policy, using one or two concrete examples

  11. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  12. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  13. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  14. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

  15. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  16. What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haftendorn, C.; Kemfert, C.; Holz, F.

    2012-01-01

    Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies. - Highlights: ► Interactions between climate policy and the global coal market until 2030 modeled. ► Analysis with the numerical model: “COALMOD-World”. ► Unilateral European climate policy partly compensated by market adjustment effects. ► A fast roll-out of CCS can lead to positive market adjustment effects. ► An export restricting supply-side policy generates virtuous market adjustments.

  17. Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jailab Kumar Rai

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

  18. Processes Adopted to Integrate Intangible Resources in Global Acquisitions among Container Lines: Perceptions of Acquirer and Acquired

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indika Sigera

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The spectrum of strategic co-operations among container lines varies from loose-knitted slot charters, liner conferences, shipping alliances, joint services and consortia, through to mergers and acquisitions (M&As. However, these forms of strategic co-operations have not always been able to achieve the intended synergetic growth resulting from the integration of resources. The Resource Based View (RBV suggests that integrating intangible resources, which are valuable, rare, inimitable and non-substitutable (VRIN, can make a significant contribution to the performance of post strategic co-operations. This research paper investigates the contribution of intangible resources to the post acquisition success six global acquisitions among container lines. The nine senior managers attached to global container lines were the main participants of this study. Five of them represented acquired container lines, four represented acquirer container lines. The paper explains their personnel experience on the processes adopts to integrate intangible resources in acquisitions. Keywords: Merger and Acquisitions, Intangible Resources, Container Lines, Task Integration, Human Integration

  19. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

  20. Effects of human activities on global climate. Part I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W W

    1977-10-01

    Various influences of mankind on the climate and the time scale for the corresponding changes to take place are discussed. A number of anthropogenic causes of climate change are described in terms of their effects on mean surface temperature, and in some cases their effects on precipitation as well. It can be seen that, even given the uncertainties about our understanding of the behaviour of the climate system and the factors that determine climate, the effect of the atmospheric carbon dioxide increase emerges as by far the dominant one. Furthermore, many of the other factors (notably direct generation of heat and possible additions of chlorofluoromethanes and nitrous oxide) also contribute to a temperature change in the same direction--a warming.

  1. Global climate change due to the hydrocarbon industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almasi, M.; Racz, L.

    1999-01-01

    An overview is presented on the industry's response to the agreements of the Rio de Janeiro (1992) and Kyoto (1987) conventions on climate change, and to other international agreements. The announcements by large petroleum companies on the changes introduced according to the international commitments in order to fight climatic impacts of hydrocarbon fuels. The problems and foreseeable future of the Hungarian hydrocarbon industry with environmental protection are discussed. Finally, emission abatement and control possibilities of hydrocarbon combustion are considered. (R.P.)

  2. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    L. I. Dorman; L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence ...

  3. Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

    2018-02-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

  4. Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

    2017-12-01

    Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

  5. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

    2004-12-01

    There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

  6. Impact of Global Climate on Rift Valley Fever and other Vector-borne Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linthicum, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Rift Valley fever is a viral disease of animals and humans in Africa and the Middle East that is transmitted by mosquitoes. Since the virus was first isolated in Kenya in 1930 it has caused significant impact to animal and human health and national economies, and it is of concern to the international agricultural and public health community. In this presentation we will describe the (1) ecology of disease transmission as it relates to climate, (2) the impact of climate and other environmental conditions on outbreaks, (3) the ability to use global climate information to predict outbreaks, (4) effective response activities, and (4) the potential to mitigate globalization.

  7. Climatic forcing before, during, and after the 8.2 Kyr B.P. global ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper attempts at full characterization of the unique global 8.2 Kyr B.P. cooling event. Signifi- ... of its global character and magnitude and occur- rence in the ... in the 1 A.U. interplanetary space, and is inversely correlated with solar activity. It is not influenced by any changes in the geomagnetic field strength or climate.

  8. Fighting windmills? EU industrial interests and global climate negotiations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Urs Steiner; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

    2003-01-01

    for setting a target of 15% of all energy to come from sources such as windmills, solar panels and waves by 2015. Such a target would further the EU's interests globally, and could explain, in economic terms, why the EU eagerly promotes GHG trade at a global level whereas the US has left the Kyoto agreement...

  9. Human and climate impacts on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

    2013-01-01

    Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

  10. Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

    2008-06-15

    The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

  11. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  12. Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan A; Frumkin, Howard; Holloway, Tracey; Vimont, Daniel J; Haines, Andrew

    2014-10-15

    Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be

  13. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

  14. Determining the effect of key climate drivers on global hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galelli, S.; Ng, J. Y.; Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Accounting for about 17% of total global electrical power production, hydropower is arguably the world's main renewable energy source and a key asset to meet Paris climate agreements. A key component of hydropower production is water availability, which depends on both precipitation and multiple drivers of climate variability acting at different spatial and temporal scales. To understand how these drivers impact global hydropower production, we study the relation between four patterns of ocean-atmosphere climate variability (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and monthly time series of electrical power production for over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs—obtained via simulation with a high-fidelity dam model forced with 20th century climate conditions. Notably significant relationships between electrical power productions and climate variability are found in many climate sensitive regions globally, including North and South America, East Asia, West Africa, and Europe. Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Finally, we highlight the importance of using these climate drivers as an additional source of information within reservoir operating rules where the skillful predictability of inflow exists.

  15. The Bali action plan: a first step towards a global agreement on climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wemaere, M.; Tubiana, L.

    2007-01-01

    The authors present and discuss the main conclusions and advances of the Bali Conference on climate change (1-15 December 2007). This conference adopted a text, an action plan, which does not mention any precise objective in terms of emission reductions, but organizes the negotiation around four 'building blocks'. The authors present and comment these four blocks: the climate change mitigation, the adaptation, the technological cooperation for the mitigation of climate change and for the adaptation to this change, and the financing of adaptation and mitigation actions

  16. WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    The brochure gives a summary of global climate during 1996, from information provided by the Climate Prediction Center in the United States with inputs from other climate centres around the world. The 1997 global mean surface temperature anomaly, 0.43{degree}C above the 1961-90 base-period mean temperature, was the highest since records began in 1860. One major contributing factor was the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode with temperatures in the tropical belt being the second highest in the historical record. ENSO resulted in increased rainfall in the central and eastern aquatorical pacific. In Indonesia, low rainfall from March to December and drought conditions by July and August contributed to uncontrolled wildfires in rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo resulting in widespread smoke pollution. The booklet is provided through the Climate Change Detection Project of the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP). 10 figs.

  17. Estonia in the system of global climate change. Publication 4/1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Punning, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Estonia is among the countries who signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at the UN Conference in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The FCCC calls on its parties to inventory national sources, to reduction in greenhouse gases and to development of projects responding to climate change. In 1994, an Estonian Country Study Project was initiated within the U.S. Country Studies Program. The Estonian Country Study Project is comprehensive, covering all sectors and directions of activity in Estonia that might impact climate change or be influenced by Global Climate Change. This book contains a collection of papers, covering the aims of the Estonian Country Study Project

  18. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H.R.; Hollister, Robert D.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations...... of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups...... to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed...

  19. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  20. Global nuclear markets in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Chapter 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.

    2001-01-01

    This article (Chapter Two) focuses on the global nuclear markets in the context of policies regarding climate change and sustainable development. The global market realities and the export potential of the canadian nuclear industry are becoming crucial features of the nuclear political economy. The article examines the role of exports in the evolution of nuclear policy in Canada, and looks more closely at nuclear power and CANDU projects in the specific context of global competitive markets. It examines the trends in electricity and nuclear energy in the market for nuclear reactors. Finally, this article locates these changes in the context of the issues that are inherent in climate change and sustainable development

  1. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Müller Schmied

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  2. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  3. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  4. Energy policy in China: implications for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ZhongXiang Zhang [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

    1998-12-31

    This is the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy. It evaluates the economics of climate change and provides national, cost-effective policies for climate change. The book consists of three main parts, firstly, an analysis of the Chinese energy system to increase awareness of the implications of this sector for China`s future carbon dioxide emissions, secondly, a macroeconomic analysis of carbon dioxide emissions limits using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and finally, a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model.

  5. Global Climate Change as Perceived by Elementary School Teachers in YOGYAKARTA , Indigenous Psychology Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Arini, Aquilina Tanti; Ghazali, Ratna Juwita; Satiti, Arti; Mintarsih, Mintarsih; Yuniarti, Kwartarini W

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to describe how the global climate change was perceived by teachers of elementary schools. The subjects were 111 teachers from 7 elementary schools in Yogyakarta City and Sleman district. The data were collected using open-ended questions (including perception about the weather, feeling evoked by global warming words and free responses related to global warming issues). The data were analyzed using the technique of qualitative and quantitative content analysis with Indigenous...

  6. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-04-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

  7. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. [Monograph

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    A summary of research conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and published by H. Flohn in 1977 updates the original data to March 1980. The work explores the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic in that it gains insights into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. Although paleoclimatic knowledge is limited, no complete model of the climatic system is available. This research uses both approaches, combining the two to some extent. 10 figures.

  8. Global climate change and human health: Information needs, research priorities, and strategic considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrell, M.P.; Kanciruk, P. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); O' Hara, F.M. Jr. (O' Hara (Fred M., Jr.), Oak Ridge, TN (USA))

    1989-01-01

    The US Global Research Plan and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme were created to assess the effects of global climate change but have not been able to devote much attention to the consequences climate change will have on human health and welfare. Although researchers and policy makers recognize that climate change will have complex effects on resources, in general, the social and medical sciences have not received appropriate international attention under the banner of global change. To address this imbalance, the public health research community needs to launch a international coordinated effort so that the social and medical sciences are as fully represented as other scientific disciplines. This document discusses the information needs, research priorities and strategic considerations of the global change and its impact on human health.

  9. Using an interdisciplinary MOOC to teach climate science and science communication to a global classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, J.

    2016-12-01

    MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) are a powerful tool, making educational content available to a large and diverse audience. The MOOC "Making Sense of Climate Science Denial" applied science communication principles derived from cognitive psychology and misconception-based learning in the design of video lectures covering many aspects of climate change. As well as teaching fundamental climate science, the course also presented psychological research into climate science denial, teaching students the most effective techniques for responding to misinformation. A number of enrolled students were secondary and tertiary educators, who adopted the course content in their own classes as well as adapted their teaching techniques based on the science communication principles presented in the lectures. I will outline how we integrated cognitive psychology, educational research and climate science in an interdisciplinary online course that has had over 25,000 enrolments from over 160 countries.

  10. Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munguí­a, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.

    2012-01-01

    A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a compl...

  11. Assessing the impact on global climate from general anesthetic gases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads P. Sulbæk; Nielsen, Ole John; Wallington, Timothy J.

    2012-01-01

    anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, as measured relative to the start of the industrial era (approximately 1750). The family of anesthetic gases includes several halogenated organic compounds that are strong greenhouse gases. In this short report, we provide an overview of the state of knowledge...

  12. Climate reconstructions derived from global glacier length records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, E.J.; Oerlemans, J.

    2004-01-01

    As glacier length fluctuations provide useful information about past climate, we derived historic fluctuations in the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) on the basis of 19 glacier length records from different parts of the world. We used a model that takes into account the geometry of the glacier,

  13. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Precipitation Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global precipitation time series provides time series charts showing observations of daily precipitation as well as accumulated precipitation compared to normal...

  16. Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Simpson, Michael

    2006-01-01

    ... as 7.1 degrees C over the next 100 years. It appears likely that global mean temperature increases will continue, and projections into the future predict a variety of possible related impacts, such as more volatile weather patterns...

  17. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von.

    1994-01-01

    Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

  18. Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D. Danny

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

  19. The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, S.

    2009-05-01

    Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

  20. (Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

  1. Icarus's discovery: Acting on global climate change in the face of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, D.G.; Maracas, K.B.; Hayslip, R.M.

    1994-01-01

    The mythological character Icarus had the misfortune of learning the consequences of his decision to fly too near the sun at the same time he employed his decision. Although Daedalus tried to reduce the uncertainties of his son's decision by warning Icarus of the possible outcome, Icarus had no empirical knowledge of what would actually happen until his waxen wings melted and he fell to the sea. Like Icarus, man has no empirical knowledge or conclusive evidence today of the possible effects of global climate change. And though the consequences of policy decisions toward global climate change may not be as catastrophic as falling into the sea, the social and economic impacts of those decisions will be substantial. There are broad uncertainties related to the scientific and ecological aspects of global climate change. But clearly the ''politics'' of global climate change issues are moving at a faster rate than the science. There is a public outcry for action now, in the face of uncertainty. This paper profiles a case study of a southwestern utility's use of multi-attribute preference theory to reduce uncertainties and analyze its options for addressing global climate change issues

  2. An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

    2003-12-01

    Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

  3. A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

  4. Climate Change and Human Migration: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change will fundamentally affect the lives of millions of people who will be forced over the next decades to leave their villages and cities to seek refuge in other areas. Although the exact numbers of climate refugees are unknowable and vary from assessment to assessment depending on

  5. Global Climate and the Security of the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-15

    social institutions),  climate-induced migration conflicts (internal in host nations due to resources scarcity, ethnic and religious differences... Romania , Slovakia, Slovenia and the Northern part of France,  Mediterranean Countries (MCEU) – Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain, and the...M(+) M(-) H(-) Energy for heating and cooling M(+) L(+) M(-) Hydropower and cooling for thermal plants M(+) M(-) H(-) Tourism and recreation M

  6. Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

    2017-12-01

    Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

  7. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-04

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

  8. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  9. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  10. Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Veitch, Jennifer J.

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999-2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.

  11. BRICS COUNTRIES’ POLITICAL AND LEGAL PARTICIPATION IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Gladun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an overview and analysis of international legal regulations on climate change. The authors examine how the international regime related to climate change has evolved in multilateral agreements. A special focus is put on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities which became the basis of discord among states in discussing targets and responsibilities in climate change mitigation. The authors note that in 2015 the international climate change regime entered a new stage where the most important role is determined for developing countries, both in the legal and in the financial infrastructure, and in the formation of an international climate change policy.The importance of the participation of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS in an international climate change regime has been recognized for some time. The article describes the policy and regulations on climate-related issues in BRICS. The authors compare the key actions and measures BRICS have taken for complying with international climate change documents. They highlight that global climate change action cannot be successful without BRICS countries’ involvement. BRICS must therefore make adequate efforts in emissions reduction measures and significant commitments in respect of the international climate change regime. The authors propose three major steps for BRICS to take the lead in dealing with climate change. First, BRICS need to foster further discussion and cooperation on climate issues and work out an obligatory legal framework to fight climate change collectively as well as unified legislation at their domestic levels. Second, Russia and other BRICS countries have the potential to cooperate in the field of renewable energy through the exchange of technology, investment in the sector, and the participation of their energy companies in each other’s domestic market. Assuming Russia will support the development and enhancement of

  12. Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Leung, Yu-Fai; Seekamp, Erin; Walden-Schreiner, Chelsey; Miller, Anna B.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A technical efficiency model identifies where state park systems can be improved. • The technical efficiency model is joined with output of CC policy simulations. • Shifts in operating expenditure under the CC mitigation policy are estimated. • Results reveal substantial variability across states. • Increasing technical efficiency is the best solution to adapt to CC policy impacts. - Abstract: Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the

  13. Forecasting the Future: Exploring Evidence for Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Univ., San Diego, La Jolla. Inst. of Marine Resources.

    This curriculum and classroom activity guide considers evidence gathered in answer to questions concerning global environmental change. It describes methods that biologists, chemists, geologists, meteorologists, and physicists use to gather and interpret their findings. The activities and approaches in this guide were developed to meet the skill…

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  16. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  17. UNEP-IOC-ASPEI global task team on the implications of climate change on coral reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-01-01

    The first meeting of the Global Task Team on the Implications of Climate Change on Coral Reefs was held to develop an authoritative scientific and technical review of the implications of climate change for coral reefs and their ecologically sustainable use. The Task Team is expected to provide expert advice and guidance in the implementation of the pilot activity on coral reef monitoring as part of the UNEP-IOC-WMO Long-Term Global Monitoring System of coastal and near-shore phenomena related to climate change. This would ensure coordination of various activities aimed at assessing the scale of impacts on natural environments and socio-economic systems particularly in the case of low-lying islands and other areas vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. The work of the Task Team should ultimately assist the Governments concerned in mitigating the impacts of such changes.

  18. Multinationals and global climate change. Issues for the automotive and oil industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Levy, D.

    2003-07-01

    This chapter analyzes the strategic responses by U.S. and European multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the oil and automobile industries to the global climate change issue. We examine and attempt to explain the differences across regions, across industries, and the changes over time. Traditional economic drivers of strategy do not provide a satisfactory account for these differences, and the chapter focuses instead on the conflicting institutional pressures on MNEs and the implications for their climate strategy. The home-country institutional context and individual corporate histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNEs based in different countries. At the same time, the location of MNEs in global industries and their participation in 'global issues arenas' such as climate change generate institutional forces for strategic convergence. It appears that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures.

  19. Multinationals and global climate change. Issues for the automotive and oil industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Levy, D.

    2003-01-01

    This chapter analyzes the strategic responses by U.S. and European multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the oil and automobile industries to the global climate change issue. We examine and attempt to explain the differences across regions, across industries, and the changes over time. Traditional economic drivers of strategy do not provide a satisfactory account for these differences, and the chapter focuses instead on the conflicting institutional pressures on MNEs and the implications for their climate strategy. The home-country institutional context and individual corporate histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNEs based in different countries. At the same time, the location of MNEs in global industries and their participation in 'global issues arenas' such as climate change generate institutional forces for strategic convergence. It appears that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures

  20. Workshop in political institutions - institutional analysis and global climate change: Design principles for robust international regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGinnis, M.

    1992-01-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that human activities have a significant effect on the world's climate. Political pressures are growing to establish political institutions at the global level that would help manage the social and economic consequences of climate change. Disagreements remain about the magnitude of these effects, as well as the regional distribution of the detrimental consequences of climate change. In this paper we do not wish to enter into the complexities of these technical debates. Instead, we wish to challenge a seemingly widespread consensus about the nature of the political response appropriate to this global dilemma. Specifically, we question the extent to which the open-quotes answerclose quotes can be said to reside primarily in the establishment of the new global institutions likely to emerge from the first open-quotes Earth Summitclose quotes - the United Nations (UN) Conference on Environment and Development - scheduled for June of 1992 in Rio de Janeiro

  1. Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2006-01-01

    To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

  2. Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; hide

    2017-01-01

    Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

  3. SWIFT: Semi-empirical and numerically efficient stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

    2015-01-01

    The SWIFT model is a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone. It is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs), Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs). For computing time reasons these models often do not employ full stratospheric chem- istry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This can lead to insufficient representation between stratosphere and troposphere. The SWIFT stratospheric ozone chem...

  4. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    OpenAIRE

    Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

  5. Northern agriculture: constraints and responses to global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo J. N. Mela

    1996-05-01

    Full Text Available In the northern circumpolar zone, the area between the 600°Cd and 1200°Cd isopleths of effective temperature sum above 5°C, the annual receipt of solar energy is limited by the low angle of radiation arriving at the earth’s surface. This is the primary cause of the climatic constraints observed in the zone, such as low temperatures, a short growing season, frosts during the growing season, long and cold winters and thick snow cover. In Finland, the length of the growing season varies from 180 days in the south (60°N to 120 days in the north (70°N. Consequently, the growing time for crops from sowing to ripening is also short, which limits their ability to produce high yields. The most advanced forms of farming in the high-latitude zone are encountered towards the south in Northern Europe, central Siberia and the prairies of Canada, i.e. mainly in the phytogeographical hemiboreal zone where the effective temperature sum is higher than 1200°Cd. Conditions for agriculture then deteriorate gradually further north with the cooling of the climate, and this is reflected as an increase in cattle rearing at the expense of grain cultivation. In northern Europe farming is practised as far north as to the Arctic Circle, at about 66°N latitude. In North America, fields extend to about 55°N, In Asia, there are few fields north of 60°N. Finland is the most northern agricultural country in the world, with all its field area, about 2.5 million hectares, located north of latitude 60°N. Changes in the climate and atmospheric CO2 predicted for the future are likely to have a strong influence, either beneficial or disadvantageous, on the conditions for growth in northern areas where the annual mean temperature is 5°C or less.

  6. Scientific aspects of climate change; Fundamentos cientificos del calentamiento global

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, G.

    2007-07-01

    For the last 35 years, the average temperature of the planet has been steadily increasing- Are the greenhouse gases emitted by human beings the cause? What will the consequences be? What can we do? The fourth report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate change tries to answer these questions. There are clear signs of thawing that primary affect Greenland and the Antarctic, but there are still many doubts what the consequences will be throughout the century. In any case, it seems obvious that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not substantially reduced very soon, the rising temperature trend and its associated consequences will persist beyond the 21st century. (Author)

  7. Global land-atmosphere coupling associated with cold climate processes

    OpenAIRE

    Dutra, Emanuel, 1983-

    2011-01-01

    Tese de doutoramento, Ciências Geofísicas e da Geoinformação (Meteorologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2011 This dissertation constitutes an assessment of the role of cold processes, associated with snow cover, in controlling the land-atmosphere coupling. The work was based on model simulations, including offline simulations with the land surface model HTESSEL, and coupled atmosphere simulations with the EC-EARTH climate model. A revised snow scheme was developed and t...

  8. Global multi-decadal ocean climate and small-pelagic fish population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tourre, Yves M; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E; White, Warren B

    2007-01-01

    Ocean climate, environmental and biological conditions vary on several spatio-temporal scales. Besides climate change associated with anthropogenic activity, there is growing evidence of a natural global multi-decadal climate signal in the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere climate system. The spatio-temporal evolution of this signal is thus analyzed during the 20th century and compared to the variability of small-pelagic fish landings. It is argued that the low-frequency global ocean environment and plankton ecosystems must be modified such that small-pelagic populations vary accordingly. A small-pelagic global index or fishing 'regime indicator series' (RIS) (i.e. a small-pelagic abundance indicator) is used. RIS is derived from fish landings data in the four main fishing areas in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Global RIS changes phase (from positive to negative values) when SST multi-decadal anomalies are out-of-phase between the eastern Pacific and southern Atlantic. RIS also displays maxima during the mid-30s to early-40s and the late-70s to early-80s when the multi-decadal signal was approximately changing phases (Tourre and White 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L06716). It is recognized that other factors may modulate fish stocks, including anthropogenic predation. Nevertheless it is proposed that variable climate and environment, and the low-frequency 'global synchrony' of small-pelagic landings (Schwartzlose et al 1999 S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 21 289-347), could be associated with the multi-decadal changes in global ocean climate conditions

  9. 40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon Cycle Model CO2 Decay Response and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations Held Constant at Current Levels. (Only Direct Effects Are Considered.) I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82 Protection o...

  10. The NASA Global Climate Change Education Project: An Integrated Effort to Improve the Teaching and Learning about Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).

  11. Global Climate Change for Kids: Making Difficult Ideas Accessible and Exciting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, D. K.; Leon, N.; Greene, M. P.

    2009-12-01

    NASA has recently launched its Global Climate Change web site (http://climate.nasa.gov), and it has been very well received. It has now also launched in preliminary form an associated site for children and educators, with a plan for completion in the near future. The goals of the NASA Global Climate Change Education site are: To increase awareness and understanding of climate change science in upper-elementary and middle-school students, reinforcing and building upon basic concepts introduced in the formal science education curriculum for these grades; To present, insofar as possible, a holistic picture of climate change science and current evidence of climate change, describing Earth as a system of interconnected processes; To be entertaining and motivating; To be clear and easy to understand; To be easy to navigate; To address multiple learning styles; To describe and promote "green" careers; To increase awareness of NASA's contributions to climate change science; To provide valuable resources for educators; To be compliant with Section 508 of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The site incorporates research findings not only on climate change, but also on effective web design for children. It is envisioned that most of the content of the site will ultimately be presented in multimedia forms. These will include illustrated and narrated "slide shows," animated expositions, interactive concept-rich games and demonstrations, videos, animated fictionalized stories, and printable picture galleries. In recognition of the attention span of the audience, content is presented in short, modular form, with a suggested, but not mandatory order of access. Empathetic animal and human cartoon personalities are used to explain concepts and tell stories. Expository, fiction, game, video, text, and image modules are interlinked for reinforcement of similar ideas. NASA's Global Climate Change Education web site addresses the vital need to impart and emphasize Earth system science

  12. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  13. An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

  14. Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

    2011-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

  15. Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schneider

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP and export production (EP of particulate organic carbon (POC. Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation. Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006 with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

  16. The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Catherine A; McManus, Donald P; Jones, Malcolm K; Gray, Darren J; Gobert, Geoffrey N

    2016-01-01

    Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Support for global climate reorganization during the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, N.E. [Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA (United States); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ammann, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Fleitmann, D. [University of Bern, Institute of Geological Sciences, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Cobb, K.M. [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Luterbacher, J. [Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen (Germany)

    2011-09-15

    Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; {proportional_to}900-1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations - especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA

  18. Global climate change: Mitigation opportunities high efficiency large chiller technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanga, M.V.

    1997-12-31

    This paper, comprised of presentation viewgraphs, examines the impact of high efficiency large chiller technology on world electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Background data are summarized, and sample calculations are presented. Calculations show that presently available high energy efficiency chiller technology has the ability to substantially reduce energy consumption from large chillers. If this technology is widely implemented on a global basis, it could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons by 2010.

  19. The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douglass, David H., E-mail: douglass@pas.rochester.edu; Knox, Robert S.

    2015-04-17

    In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. - Highlights: • Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. • The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. • El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. • Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.

  20. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high