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Sample records for activity predict variation

  1. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, Simon J. [School of Engineering, University of Bradford, Bradford, BD7 1DP (United Kingdom); Zharkov, Sergei I. [Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Hull, Kingston upon Tyne, HU6 7RS (United Kingdom); Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics and Information Systems, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 8ST (United Kingdom)

    2014-11-01

    A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

  2. Prediction of avalanches on the basis of the 27‐day Solar activity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Kazakov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Many natural processes on the Earth are the cyclic ones and they are self-sustaining within a system of the Sun–Earth relations. To verify our hypothesis on a cyclic occurrence of the avalanche processes and to estimate a possibility to predict avalanches as a cyclic process we had analyzed information about avalanches and meteorological processes (number of avalanches per a day, their total and maximal volumes, and daily sums of precipitation using the method of 27-day Sun (solar calendars by A. Chizhevskiy. Analysis of results of such studies obtained in Khibini (Kola peninsula, for 1935–1986 and on a Chamginskiy mountain pass (the Sakhalin Island, Vostochno-Sakhalinskie Mountains, for 1982–1992 had shown that activity of the avalanche processes and the atmospheric precipitation had evident 27-day solar cycle. Cyclicity of appearance and volume of avalanches of both syngenetic and epigenetic types is established as well as of the precipitation in quantitative gradations. Procedures of prediction of number and volume of avalanches and daily precipitation were developed on the basis of their relationship with the Sun cycles. Verification of the method proposed in this article by the data obtained in Khibini (Kukisvum mountain pass, 1987–1988 and on the Sakhalin Island (Chamginskiy mountain pass, 1993–1995; Yuzhno-Sahalinsk; Tomari, 1991–1999 had demonstrated that correctness of such forecast with earliness of 60 days is as follows: for precipitation – 85–90%; the new snow avalanches of new snow – 90–95%; avalanches of recrystallization snow – 75–80%. At that with earliness of 10 days: precipitation – 90–95%; avalanches of new snow – 95%; avalanches of r recrystallization snow – 75–80%. 

  3. Variation in key genes of serotonin and norepinephrine function predicts gamma-band activity during goal-directed attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enge, Sören; Fleischhauer, Monika; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Reif, Andreas; Strobel, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    Recent evidence shows that genetic variations in key regulators of serotonergic (5-HT) signaling explain variance in executive tasks, which suggests modulatory actions of 5-HT on goal-directed selective attention as one possible underlying mechanism. To investigate this link, 130 volunteers were genotyped for the 5-HT transporter gene-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) and for a variation (TPH2-703 G/T) of the TPH2 gene coding for the rate-limiting enzyme of 5-HT synthesis in the brain. Additionally, a functional polymorphism of the norepinephrine transporter gene (NET -3081 A/T) was considered, which was recently found to predict attention and working memory processes in interaction with serotonergic genes. The flanker-based Attention Network Test was used to assess goal-directed attention and the efficiency of attentional networks. Event-related gamma-band activity served to indicate selective attention at the intermediate phenotype level. The main findings were that 5-HTTLPR s allele and TPH2 G-allele homozygotes showed increased induced gamma-band activity during target processing when combined with the NET A/A genotype compared with other genotype combinations, and that gamma activity mediates the genotype-specific effects on task performance. The results further support a modulatory role of 5-HT and NE function in the top-down attentional selection of motivationally relevant over competing or irrelevant sensory input.

  4. Genetic variation in the proximal promoter of ABC and SLC superfamilies: liver and kidney specific expression and promoter activity predict variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie E Hesselson

    Full Text Available Membrane transporters play crucial roles in the cellular uptake and efflux of an array of small molecules including nutrients, environmental toxins, and many clinically used drugs. We hypothesized that common genetic variation in the proximal promoter regions of transporter genes contribute to observed variation in drug response. A total of 579 polymorphisms were identified in the proximal promoters (-250 to +50 bp and flanking 5' sequence of 107 transporters in the ATP Binding Cassette (ABC and Solute Carrier (SLC superfamilies in 272 DNA samples from ethnically diverse populations. Many transporter promoters contained multiple common polymorphisms. Using a sliding window analysis, we observed that, on average, nucleotide diversity (pi was lowest at approximately 300 bp upstream of the transcription start site, suggesting that this region may harbor important functional elements. The proximal promoters of transporters that were highly expressed in the liver had greater nucleotide diversity than those that were highly expressed in the kidney consistent with greater negative selective pressure on the promoters of kidney transporters. Twenty-one promoters were evaluated for activity using reporter assays. Greater nucleotide diversity was observed in promoters with strong activity compared to promoters with weak activity, suggesting that weak promoters are under more negative selective pressure than promoters with high activity. Collectively, these results suggest that the proximal promoter region of membrane transporters is rich in variation and that variants in these regions may play a role in interindividual variation in drug disposition and response.

  5. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    OpenAIRE

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K; K. Satheesh Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that determin...

  6. Dimension variation prediction and control for composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chensong

    This dissertation presents a systematic study on the dimension variation prediction and control for polymer matrix fiber reinforced composites. A dimension variation model was developed for process simulation based on thermal stress analysis and finite element analysis (FEA). This model was validated against the experimental data, the analytical solutions and the data from literature. Using the FEA-based dimension variation model, the deformations of typical composite structures were studied and the regression-based dimension variation model was developed. The regression-based dimension variation model can significantly reduce computation time and provide a quick design guide for composite products with reduced dimension variations. By introducing the material modification coefficient, this comprehensive model can handle various fiber/resin types and stacking sequences. It eliminates the complicated, time-consuming finite element meshing and material parameter defining process. The deformation compensation through tooling design was investigated using the FEA-based and the regression-based dimension variation models. The structural tree method (STM) was developed to compute the assembly deformation from the deformations of individual components, as well as the deformation of general shape composite components. The STM enables rapid dimension variation analysis/synthesis for complex composite assemblies with the regression-based dimension variation model. Using the STM and the regression-based dimension variation model, design optimization and tolerance analysis/synthesis were conducted. The exploring work presented in this research provides a foundation to develop practical and proactive dimension control techniques for composite products.

  7. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K.; Satheesh Kumar, K.

    2014-11-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error) of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  8. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    Variations on Bayesian prediction and inference” Ryan Martin Department of Mathematics, Statistics , and Computer Science University of Illinois at Chicago...using statistical ideas/methods. We recently learned that this new project will be supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation. 2.2 Problem 2...41. Kalli, M., Griffin, J. E., Walker, S. G. (2011). Slice sampling mixture models. Statistics and Computing 21, 93–105. Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile

  9. Possibility of prediction of strong seismic events in the Middle Odra Fault Zone based on variations of kinematic activity of the Świebodzice Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaczorowski, Marek; Kasza, Damian; Zdunek, Ryszard; Wronowski, Roman; Szczerbowski, Zbigniew

    2017-04-01

    Książ Geodynamic Laboratory of Space Research Centre is located in the Świebodzice Depression unit. The laboratory was built inside underground corridors made in the castle hill about 50 m below surface. The main instruments which provide us most of information about tectonic activity of Świebodzice Depression are two long water-tubes tiltmeters 65 and 92 meters long (WT). The WT are situated on several rocky blocks which motions provided tectonic signals to WT. The instruments register numerous irregularly occurred epochs of water levels variations in hydrodynamic systems of magnitudes exceeding tidal signals dozens or so times. These observations are interpreted as result of tiltings of foundation and vertical motions of rock blocks. Signals of tiltings of foundation and vertical motions are superposed by the WT registration system. The resultant signals from four channels of WT were defined by us as tectonic activity functions of the massif. Variations of the tectonic activity functions as well as their first derivatives were compared with the seismic activity in Fore-Sudetic Monocline. We found correlation in time and amplitudes domains between extremes and inflection points of the first derivative of the tectonic activity function and the seismic events in the Middle Odra Fault Zone of the Fore-Sudetic Monocline. High correlation concerns only the strong earthquakes the energies of which were larger than 4 MJ. Almost all the high energy seismic events from 2005 to 2015 took place in surroundings of minima, maxima or inflection points of tectonic activity functions when first derivatives were close to zero. In the epochs of large absolute values of amplitudes of first derivatives i.e. during high tectonic activity of Świebodzice Depression, the strong energy earthquakes never happened. The observation shows that the origin of the low and high energy earthquakes is different. The high energy earthquakes are produced by natural tectonic activity, while the

  10. Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Per Moestrup; de Fine Licht, Henrik Hjarvard

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics...... to their biology. We suggest that the overall result reflects an interaction between the forces driving demographic change and the virulence of human-to-human transmitted diseases....

  11. Recent Decadal Variations of El Nino Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guomin; Hendon, Harry; Zhao, Mei

    2017-04-01

    Predictive skill for El Niño in the equatorial eastern Pacific across a range of forecast models declined in the early 21st century relative to what was achieved in the late 20th century. This decline coincided with a reduction of El Niño variability in the eastern Pacific and a shift in Pacific climate to an enhanced east-west surface temperature gradient and stronger trade winds in the central Pacific, which has previously been associated with the recent hiatus in global surface warming. It is an outstanding question as to whether this shift in climate at the end of the 20th century acted to weaken El Niño variability, hence predictability, or whether El Niño variability weakened by chance thus reducing predictability but in so doing resulted in the shift in climate. Using seasonal forecast sensitivity experiments with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model POAMA2.4, the shift to intensified east-west surface temperature gradient and stronger central Pacific trade winds is shown to weaken the ocean-atmosphere feedback that amplify eastern Pacific El Niño, thus resulting in weaker variability that is less predictable. This weakened coupling helps explain the fitful behaviour and challenges for forecasting the non-developing El Niño in early 2014. In contrast, the Pacific mean state appears to have swung to a more favourable condition for promoting El Nino toward the end of 2014, thus supporting stronger development of El Nino in 2015.

  12. Predicting individual variation in language from infant speech perception measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Christia; A. Seidl; C. Junge; M. Soderstrom; P. Hagoort

    2013-01-01

    There are increasing reports that individual variation in behavioral and neurophysiological measures of infant speech processing predicts later language outcomes, and specifically concurrent or subsequent vocabulary size. If such findings are held up under scrutiny, they could both illuminate theore

  13. Predicting Individual Variation in Language From Infant Speech Perception Measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cristia, A.; Seidl, A.; Junge, C.M.M.; Soderstrom, M.; Hagoort, P.

    2014-01-01

    There are increasing reports that individual variation in behavioral and neurophysiological measures of infant speech processing predicts later language outcomes, and specifically concurrent or subsequent vocabulary size. If such findings are held up under scrutiny, they could both illuminate theore

  14. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  15. Prediction of interconnect delay variations using pattern matching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Eric Y.; Holwill, Juliet A.; Neureuther, Andrew R.

    2007-03-01

    An exploratory Process Variation Net Scanning (PVNS) approach to estimate interconnect delay variations is presented. It is shown that the geometrical response of lithographic nonidealities can be quickly predicted to first order with Pattern Matching. This concept can be extended to other process nonidealities by developing Maximum Lateral Impact Functions to capture the effects of variations in conductor sidewall angle and thickness from etch and CMP processes. The geometrical response for each variation can then be used to model the effective change in resistance and capacitance and perturb the corresponding values in the extracted netlist. The impact of PVNS is demonstrated using a 90nm digital design, and the runtime analysis indicates that this approach may potentially be twice as fast as traditional extraction. This allows for fast electrical analysis of independent process variations on different interconnect layers instead of traditional best and worst case corner analyses.

  16. Explained Variation and Predictive Accuracy with an Extension to the Competing Risks Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosthøj, Susanne; Keiding, Niels

    2003-01-01

    Competing risks; efficiency; explained variation; misspecification; predictive accuracy; survival analysis......Competing risks; efficiency; explained variation; misspecification; predictive accuracy; survival analysis...

  17. The cortical eye proprioceptive signal modulates neural activity in higher-order visual cortex as predicted by the variation in visual sensitivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Siebner, Hartwig R; Paulson, Olaf B

    2012-01-01

    Whereas the links between eye movements and the shifts in visual attention are well established, less is known about how eye position affects the prioritization of visual space. It was recently observed that visual sensitivity varies with the direction of gaze and the level of excitability...... in the eye proprioceptive representation in human left somatosensory cortex (S1(EYE)), so that after 1Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over S1(EYE), targets presented nearer the center of the orbit are detected more accurately. Here we used whole-brain functional magnetic resonance...... target when the right eye was rotated leftwards as compared with when it was rotated rightwards. This effect was larger after S1(EYE)-rTMS than after rTMS of a control area in the motor cortex. The neural response to retinally identical stimuli in this area could be predicted from the changes in visual...

  18. A simple physical model predicts small exon length variations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the most common splice variations are small exon length variations caused by the use of alternative donor or acceptor splice sites that are in very close proximity on the pre-mRNA. Among these, three-nucleotide variations at so-called NAGNAG tandem acceptor sites have recently attracted considerable attention, and it has been suggested that these variations are regulated and serve to fine-tune protein forms by the addition or removal of a single amino acid. In this paper we first show that in-frame exon length variations are generally overrepresented and that this overrepresentation can be quantitatively explained by the effect of nonsense-mediated decay. Our analysis allows us to estimate that about 50% of frame-shifted coding transcripts are targeted by nonsense-mediated decay. Second, we show that a simple physical model that assumes that the splicing machinery stochastically binds to nearby splice sites in proportion to the affinities of the sites correctly predicts the relative abundances of different small length variations at both boundaries. Finally, using the same simple physical model, we show that for NAGNAG sites, the difference in affinities of the neighboring sites for the splicing machinery accurately predicts whether splicing will occur only at the first site, splicing will occur only at the second site, or three-nucleotide splice variants are likely to occur. Our analysis thus suggests that small exon length variations are the result of stochastic binding of the spliceosome at neighboring splice sites. Small exon length variations occur when there are nearby alternative splice sites that have similar affinity for the splicing machinery.

  19. Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Cowan, N B; Croll, B; Shekhtman, L M; Burrows, A; Deming, D; Greene, T; Hora, J L

    2011-01-01

    [Abridged] We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously-measured day-side spectral energy distribution, is indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micron, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micron, but our parameter uncertainties -estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo- keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micron, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's...

  20. Predicting the temporal variation of flow contributing areas using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golmohammadi, Golmar; Rudra, Ramesh; Dickinson, Trevor; Goel, Pradeep; Veliz, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study assessed the capability of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to identify areas contributing to flow in the Gully Creek Watershed in Ontario. The SWAT model predicted the streamflow at the outlet of the watershed, with monthly and daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.75 and 0.60 during the validation period. In addition to the daily streamflow data, the flow was also observed at 16 monitoring stations during 6 different events. The validated model was then used to simulate flow at the monitoring stations. The effect of watershed delineation on streamflow and events at 16 monitoring station were then examined by SWAT. The delineation of 99 subbasins, with highest efficiency was selected for the purpose of predicting the potential flow contributing areas with the model. Overall, the flow events were overestimated by SWAT. Temporal variations in the potential flow contributing areas during each event were then analyzed. Flow contributing areas during each event was predicted by the model first and the results showed a good agreement with available information. A current precipitation index was used to simulate the continuous change of soil water content during each rainstorm, and the modeling results of the individual events were used to explore the capability of the model to predict the temporal variation of flow contributing areas during each event. The results revealed that the SWAT model over-predicted the areas contributing flow for events with lower rainfall; while for the events with higher rainfall amount the model closely simulated the time-varying contributing area. The results of this study provide some insight into the possible capability of SWAT model to predict the temporal variations in potential contributing area, and therefore provide an important contribution to the modeling of runoff generation in watersheds, a vital aspect in the evaluation and planning of best management practices.

  1. Capturing Appearance Variation in Active Appearance Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Maaten, L.J.P.; Hendriks, E.A.

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents an extension of active appearance models (AAMs) that is better capable of dealing with the large variation in face appearance that is encountered in large multi-person face data sets. Instead of the traditional PCA-based texture model, our extended AAM employs a mixture of probabi

  2. Prediction of dental caries activity

    OpenAIRE

    Crossner, Claes-Göran

    1980-01-01

    The aim of the present thesis was to find a test for prediction of caries activity which would be useful in routine clinical work.Correlations between oral health, general health, food habits and socioeconomic conditions were investigated in 4- and 8-year-old children. It was found that the salivary secretion rate and the prevalence of oral lactobacilli were factors which might be useful in caries prediction.In 5- and 8-year-old children negative correlations between caries frequency and secr...

  3. THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Shekhtman, Louis M. [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Dr, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States); Machalek, Pavel [SETI Institute, 189 Bernardo Ave., Suite 100, Mountain View, CA 94043 (United States); Croll, Bryce [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Burrows, Adam [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 05844 (United States); Deming, Drake [Planetary Systems Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Greene, Tom [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Hora, Joseph L., E-mail: n-cowan@northwestern.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2012-03-01

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R{sub p} /R{sub *}){sup 2} = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 {mu}m, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F{sub day}/F{sub *} = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 {mu}m, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 {mu}m, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 {mu}m ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 {mu}m transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 {mu}m depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 {mu}m eclipse depth

  4. Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Nicolas B.; Machalek, Pavel; Croll, Bryce; Shekhtman, Louis M.; Burrows, Adam; Deming, Drake; Greene, Tom; Hora, Joseph L.

    2012-01-01

    We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R(sub p)/R(sub *))(sup 2) = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micrometers, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F(sub day)/F(sub *) = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micrometers, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micrometers, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micrometer ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 micrometer transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micrometer depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much

  5. Genetic variation in retinal vascular patterning predicts variation in pial collateral extent and stroke severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakar, Pranay; Zhang, Hua; Chen, De; Faber, James E.

    2015-01-01

    The presence of a native collateral circulation in tissues lessens injury in occlusive vascular diseases. However, differences in genetic background cause wide variation in collateral number and diameter in mice, resulting in large variation in protection. Indirect estimates of collateral perfusion suggest wide variation also exists in humans. Unfortunately, methods used to obtain these estimates are invasive and not widely available. We sought to determine if differences in genetic background in mice result in variation in branch-patterning of the retinal arterial circulation, and if these differences predict strain-dependent differences in pial collateral extent and severity of ischemic stroke. Retinal patterning metrics, collateral extent, and infarct volume were obtained for 10 strains known to differ widely in collateral extent. Multivariate regression was conducted and model performance assessed using K-fold cross-validation. Twenty-one metrics varied with strain (placunarity, optimality) predicted collateral number and diameter across 7 regression models, with the best model closely predicting (p<0.0001) number (± 1.2-3.4 collaterals, K-fold R2=0.83-0.98), diameter (± 1.2-1.9μm, R2=0.73-0.88) and infarct volume (± 5.1 mm3, R2=0.85-0.87). These metrics obtained for the middle cerebral artery tree in a subset of the above strains also predicted (p<0.0001) collateral number and diameter and diameter, although with less strength (K-fold R2=0.61-0.78) and 0.60-0.86, respectively). Thus, differences in arterial branch-patterning in the retina and the MCA trees are specified by genetic background and predict variation in collateral extent and stroke severity. If also true in human retina, and since genetic variation in cerebral collaterals extends to other tissues at least in mice, a similar “retinal predictor index” could serve as a non-or minimally invasive biomarker for collateral extent in brain and other tissues. This could aid prediction of severity

  6. Short communication: Genetic variation in estrus activity traits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løvendahl, P; Chagunda, M G G

    2009-01-01

    Genetic variation in estrus traits derived from hourly measurements by electronic activity tags was studied in an experimental herd of Holstein (n = 211), Jersey (n = 126), and Red Dane (n = 178) cows. Both virgin heifers (n = 132) and lactating cows in the first 4 parities (n = 895 cow parities......) were used, giving a total of 3,284 high-activity episodes indicating estrus. The first estrus after calving was predicted to occur on average, at 39, 44, and 45 d in milk for Red Danes, Holsteins, and Jerseys, respectively. Genetic variance was detected for the trait days to first high activity...

  7. Long-term variations of solar activity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series: the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of 14C concentration in tree-rings, reconstructed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441, 522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.

  8. HPA Axis in Major Depression: Cortisol, Clinical Symptomatology, and Genetic Variation Predict Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Jennifer; Gomez, Rowena; Williams, Gordon; Lembke, Anna; Lazzeroni, Laura; Murphy, Greer M.; Schatzberg, Alan F.

    2016-01-01

    The Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenal (HPA) axis has been implicated in the pathophysiology of a variety of mood and cognitive disorders. Neuroendocrine studies have demonstrated HPA axis overactivity in major depression, a relationship of HPA axis activity to cognitive performance, and a potential role of HPA axis genetic variation in cognition. The present study investigated the simultaneous roles HPA axis activity, clinical symptomatology, and HPA genetic variation play in cognitive performance. Patients with major depression with psychosis (PMD) and without psychosis (NPMD) and healthy controls (HC) were studied. All participants underwent a diagnostic interview and psychiatric ratings, a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, overnight hourly blood sampling for cortisol, and genetic assessment. Cognitive performance differed as a function of depression subtype. Across all subjects, cognitive performance was negatively correlated with higher cortisol, and PMD patients had higher cortisol than did NPMDs and HCs. Cortisol, clinical symptoms, and variation in genes, NR3C1 (glucocorticoid receptor - GR) and NR3C2 (minercorticoid receptor – MR) that encode for glucocorticoid and mineralcorticoid receptors, predicted cognitive performance. Beyond the effects of cortisol, demographics, and clinical symptoms, NR3C1 variation predicted attention and working memory, whereas NR3C2 polymorphisms predicted memory performance. These findings parallel the distribution of GR and MR in primate brain and their putative roles in specific cognitive tasks. HPA axis genetic variation and activity were important predictors of cognition across the entire sample of depressed subjects and healthy controls. GR and MR genetic variation predicted unique cognitive functions, beyond the influence of cortisol and clinical symptoms. GR genetic variation was implicated in attention and working memory, whereas MR was implicated in verbal memory. PMID:27528460

  9. HPA axis in major depression: cortisol, clinical symptomatology and genetic variation predict cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J; Gomez, R; Williams, G; Lembke, A; Lazzeroni, L; Murphy, G M; Schatzberg, A F

    2016-08-16

    The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis has been implicated in the pathophysiology of a variety of mood and cognitive disorders. Neuroendocrine studies have demonstrated HPA axis overactivity in major depression, a relationship of HPA axis activity to cognitive performance and a potential role of HPA axis genetic variation in cognition. The present study investigated the simultaneous roles HPA axis activity, clinical symptomatology and HPA genetic variation play in cognitive performance. Patients with major depression with psychotic major depression (PMD) and with nonpsychotic major depression (NPMD) and healthy controls (HC) were studied. All participants underwent a diagnostic interview and psychiatric ratings, a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, overnight hourly blood sampling for cortisol and genetic assessment. Cognitive performance differed as a function of depression subtype. Across all subjects, cognitive performance was negatively correlated with higher cortisol, and PMD patients had higher cortisol than did NPMDs and HCs. Cortisol, clinical symptoms and variation in genes, NR3C1 (glucocorticoid receptor; GR) and NR3C2 (mineralocorticoid receptor; MR) that encode for GRs and MRs, predicted cognitive performance. Beyond the effects of cortisol, demographics and clinical symptoms, NR3C1 variation predicted attention and working memory, whereas NR3C2 polymorphisms predicted memory performance. These findings parallel the distribution of GR and MR in primate brain and their putative roles in specific cognitive tasks. HPA axis genetic variation and activity were important predictors of cognition across the entire sample of depressed subjects and HR. GR and MR genetic variation predicted unique cognitive functions, beyond the influence of cortisol and clinical symptoms. GR genetic variation was implicated in attention and working memory, whereas MR was implicated in verbal memory.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 16 August 2016; doi

  10. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  11. Variations of Solar Non-axisymmetric Activity

    CERN Document Server

    Gyenge, N; Ludmány, A

    2014-01-01

    The temporal behaviour of solar active longitudes has been examined by using two sunspot catalogues, the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD). The time-longitude diagrams of the activity distribution reveal the preferred longitudinal zones and their migration with respect to the Carrington frame. The migration paths outline a set of patterns in which the activity zone has alternating prograde/retrograde angular velocities with respect to the Carrington rotation rate. The time profiles of these variations can be described by a set of successive parabolae. Two similar migration paths have been selected from these datasets, one northern path during cycles 21 - 22 and one southern path during cycles 13 - 14, for closer examination and comparison of their dynamical behaviours. The rates of sunspot emergence exhibited in both migration paths similar periodicities, close to 1.3 years. This behaviour may imply that the active longitude is connected to the bottom of c...

  12. PPA BASED PREDICTION-CORRECTION METHODS FOR MONOTONE VARIATIONAL INEQUALITIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Bingsheng; Jiang Jianlin; Qian Maijian; Xu Ya

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we study the proximal point algorithm (PPA) based predictioncorrection (PC) methods for monotone variational inequalities. Each iteration of these methods consists of a prediction and a correction. The predictors are produced by inexact PPA steps. The new iterates are then updated by a correction using the PPA formula. We present two profit functions which serve two purposes: First we show that the profit functions are tight lower bounds of the improvements obtained in each iteration. Based on this conclusion we obtain the convergence inexactness restrictions for the prediction step. Second we show that the profit functions are quadratically dependent upon the step lengths, thus the optimal step lengths are obtained in the correction step. In the last part of the paper we compare the strengths of different methods based on their inexactness restrictions.

  13. Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew; Jiang, Weiyuan

    2011-01-01

    It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

  14. Length of activity season drives geographic variation in body size of a widely distributed lizard

    OpenAIRE

    Horváthová, Terézia; Cooney, Christopher R.; Fitze, Patrick S; Oksanen, Tuula; Jelic, Dusan; Ghira, Ioan; Uller, Tobias; Jandzik, David

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the factors that drive geographic variation in life history is an important challenge in evolutionary ecology. Here, we analyze what predicts geographic variation in life-history traits of the common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, which has the globally largest distribution range of all terrestrial reptile species. Variation in body size was predicted by differences in the length of activity season, while we found no effects of environmental temperature per se. Females experiencing r...

  15. Predicting Variations in Math Performancein Four Countries Using TIMSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Koretz

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Although international comparisons of average student performance are a staple of U.S. educational debate, little attention has been paid to cross-national differences in the variability of performance. It is often assumed that the performance of U.S. students is unusually variable or that the distribution of U.S. scores is left-skewed – that is, that it has an unusually long ‘tail' of low-scoring students – but data from international studies are rarely brought to bear on these questions. This study used data from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS to compare the variability of performance in the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan; investigate how this performance variation is distributed within and between classrooms; and explore how well background variables predict performance at both levels. TIMSS shows that the U.S. is not anomalous in terms of the amount, distribution, or prediction of performance variation. Nonetheless, some striking differences appear between countries that are potentially important for both research and policy. In the U.S., Germany, Hong Kong, and Australia, between 42 and 47 percent of score variance was between classrooms. At the other extreme, Japan and Korea both had less than 10 percent of score variance between classrooms. Two-level models (student and classroom were used to explore the prediction of performance by social background variables in four of these countries (the U.S., Hong Kong, France, and Korea. The final models included only a few variables; TIMSS lacked some important background variables, such as income, and other variables were dropped either because of problems revealed by exploratory data analysis or because of a lack of significance in the models. In all four countries, these sparse models predicted most of the between-classroom score variance (from 59 to 94 percent but very little of the within-classroom variance. Korea was the only

  16. Variation in nocturnality and circadian activity rhythms between photoresponsive F344 and nonphotoresponsive Sprague Dawley rats

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Variation in circadian rhythms and nocturnality may, hypothetically, be related to or independent of genetic variation in photoperiodic mediation of seasonal changes in physiology and behavior. We hypothesized that strain variation in photoperiodism between photoperiodic F344 rats and nonphotoperiodic Harlan Sprague Dawley (HSD) rats might be caused by underlying variation in clock function. We predicted that HSD rats would have more activity during the day or subjective d...

  17. ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Anbazhagan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  18. Indonesia Stratosphere and Troposphere Response to Solar Activity Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinambela, Wilson; Muh, La Ode; Musafar, K.; Sutastio, Heri

    2000-10-01

    Tropospheric and stratospheric response of Indonesia to the solar activity was analyzed based on the stratospheric total ozone concentrations above Watukosek station (07,6 deg S, 112,5 deg E) from 1979 to 1992, and tropospheric temperature at tropopause geopotential height, 500 mBar, 700 mbar above Cengkareng - Jakarta station (06 deg) 07 min 37 sec S, 106 deg 39 min 28 sec E) from 1986 to 1992, and ground surface air temperature above Polonia Median (03 deg 34 sec N, 98 deg 41 min E) and Kemayoran - Jakarta station (06 deg 09 min S 106 deg 51 min E) from 1979 - 1989. By using the moving average analysis of monthly average this tropospheric and stratospheric variable, were found that the behavior of the time series of the stratospheric ozone concentration, tropospheric temperature at geopotential height tropopause, 500 mBar, 700 mBar and ground surface air temperature above Indonesia showed a tendency to vary with a period of about 22 - 32 months. This is so - called " Quasi Biennial" (Q B 0). The behavior of the relative sunspot numbers and / or F 10,7 Cm solar radio flux as the measure of the solar activity also showed a tendency to vary Quasi - Biennially with a period about 27 - 30 months which was superimposed to the eleven - year solar cycle variations. The source of the variations was predicted from the inside of the sun, since the experiment showed that the neutrino flux from the sun varies with a period almost equal to the Quasi - Biennial variations of the solar activity. The Quasi - Biennial variations of the solar activity seems produce a similar variations on the earth atmospheric phenomena such as the stratospheric total ozone concentrations, mean tropospheric temperature at geopotential tropopause height, 500 mBar, 700 mBar, and mean ground surface air temperature above Indonesia.

  19. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    CERN Document Server

    Heller, René; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-01-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moons, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures if the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or t...

  20. Temporal variations analyses and predictive modeling of microbiological seawater quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lušić, Darija Vukić; Kranjčević, Lado; Maćešić, Senka; Lušić, Dražen; Jozić, Slaven; Linšak, Željko; Bilajac, Lovorka; Grbčić, Luka; Bilajac, Neiro

    2017-08-01

    Bathing water quality is a major public health issue, especially for tourism-oriented regions. Currently used methods within EU allow at least a 2.2 day period for obtaining the analytical results, making outdated the information forwarded to the public. Obtained results and beach assessment are influenced by the temporal and spatial characteristics of sample collection, and numerous environmental parameters, as well as by differences of official water standards. This paper examines the temporal variation of microbiological parameters during the day, as well as the influence of the sampling hour, on decision processes in the management of the beach. Apart from the fecal indicators stipulated by the EU Bathing Water Directive (E. coli and enterococci), additional fecal (C. perfringens) and non-fecal (S. aureus and P. aeriginosa) parameters were analyzed. Moreover, the effects of applying different evaluation criteria (national, EU and U.S. EPA) to beach ranking were studied, and the most common reasons for exceeding water-quality standards were investigated. In order to upgrade routine monitoring, a predictive statistical model was developed. The highest concentrations of fecal indicators were recorded early in the morning (6 AM) due to the lack of solar radiation during the night period. When compared to enterococci, E. coli criteria appears to be more stringent for the detection of fecal pollution. In comparison to EU and U.S. EPA criteria, Croatian national evaluation criteria provide stricter public health standards. Solar radiation and precipitation were the predominant environmental parameters affecting beach water quality, and these parameters were included in the predictive model setup. Predictive models revealed great potential for the monitoring of recreational water bodies, and with further development can become a useful tool for the improvement of public health protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation of a new paleosecular variation activity index as a diagnostic tool for geomagnetic field variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panovska, Sanja; Constable, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Geomagnetic indices like Dst, K and A, have been used since the early twentieth century to characterize activity in the external part of the modern geomagnetic field and as a diagnostic for space weather. These indices reflect regional and global activity and serve as a proxy for associated physical processes. However, no such tools are yet available for the internal geomagnetic field driven by the geodynamo in Earth's liquid outer core. To some extent this reflects limited spatial and temporal sampling for longer timescales associated with paleomagnetic secular variation, but recent efforts in both paleomagnetic data gathering and modeling activity suggest that longer term characterization of the internal geomagnetic weather/climate and its variability would be useful. Specifically, we propose an index for activity in paleosecular variation, useful as both a local and global measure of field stability during so-called normal secular variation and as a means of identifying more extreme behavior associated with geomagnetic excursions and reversals. To date, geomagnetic excursions have been identified by virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) deviating more than some conventional limit from the geographic pole (often 45 degrees), and/or by periods of significant intensity drops below some critical value, for example 50% of the present-day field. We seek to establish a quantitative definition of excursions in paleomagnetic records by searching for synchronous directional deviations and lows in relative paleointensity. We combine paleointensity variations with deviations from the expected geocentric axial dipole (GAD) inclination in a single parameter, which we call the paleosecular variation (PSV) activity index. This new diagnostic can be used on any geomagnetic time series (individual data records, model predictions, spherical harmonic coefficients, etc.) to characterize the level of paleosecular variation activity, find excursions, or even study incipient reversals

  2. CREATING THE KULTUK POLYGON FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: VARIATIONS OF (234U/238U AND 87SR/86SR IN GROUNDWATER FROM ACTIVE FAULTS AT THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE BAIKAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Rasskazov

    2015-12-01

    direction at 14°, which resulted in the synchronization of (234U/238U at these stations (Fig. 13. At the background of the chaotic state of the monitoring system of the Kultuk polygon, it is possible to distinguish sequential self‐organization phases from а to г as evidenced by the azimuthal synchronization of the stations. The spatial development of the recorded processes was represented the sequential seismogenic activation of the western termination of the Obruchev fault (Fig. 14. From the analyses of temporal variations of U concentrations (Fig. 15, we infer that the dynamics of uranium ingress into water was different at stations 9 and 8. In the initial monitoring stage, the background extremely high values of (234U/238U and concentrations of uranium were inconsistent at stations 9 and 8. Later on, at station 9, episodes of the high mobility of uranium from the deformation zone alternated with episodes of the high mobility of uranium from the oxidation zone. At station 8, in the period from 26 October 2012 to 04 July 2013, uranium impulses took place occasionally in the deformation zone, and a few were combined with earthquakes of class 9 or 10. From 07 August 2013, the above‐mentioned impulses were replaced by uranium impulses from the oxidation zone. At this stage, an anomalous ingress of uranium was recorded.Conclusion. To validate the system of monitoring stations in the Kultuk polygon for earthquake prediction, spatial variations of (234U/238U both in groundwater and surface water were studied. On sites of the tectonically stable areas, it was found that components of the surface runoff had admixtures of ground water components from the nearsurface water sources. On sites located at active faults, surface runoff components had admixtures of groundwater components from the deformation zone and oxidation zone. On sites located at active faults whereat permanent water streams lacked, the components from the deformation zone contained admixture of near

  3. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  4. Global genetic variations predict brain response to faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickie, Erin W; Tahmasebi, Amir; French, Leon; Kovacevic, Natasa; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Flor, Herta; Garavan, Hugh; Gallinat, Juergen; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Lawrence, Claire; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Nichols, Thomas; Lathrop, Mark; Loth, Eva; Pausova, Zdenka; Rietschel, Marcela; Smolka, Michal N; Ströhle, Andreas; Toro, Roberto; Schumann, Gunter; Paus, Tomáš

    2014-08-01

    Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼ 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximum likelihood (GREML), we related this global genetic variance to that in the brain response to facial expressions, as assessed with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a community-based sample of adolescents (n = 1,620). Brain response to facial expressions was measured in 25 regions constituting a face network, as defined previously. In 9 out of these 25 regions, common genetic variance explained a significant proportion of phenotypic variance (40-50%) in their response to ambiguous facial expressions; this was not the case for angry facial expressions. Across the network, the strength of the genotype-phenotype relationship varied as a function of the inter-individual variability in the number of functional connections possessed by a given region (R(2) = 0.38, p<0.001). Furthermore, this variability showed an inverted U relationship with both the number of observed connections (R2 = 0.48, p<0.001) and the magnitude of brain response (R(2) = 0.32, p<0.001). Thus, a significant proportion of the brain response to facial expressions is predicted by common genetic variance in a subset of regions constituting the face network. These regions show the highest inter-individual variability in the number of connections with other network nodes, suggesting that the genetic model captures variations across the adolescent brains in co-opting these regions into the face network.

  5. Global genetic variations predict brain response to faces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin W Dickie

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼ 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximum likelihood (GREML, we related this global genetic variance to that in the brain response to facial expressions, as assessed with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI in a community-based sample of adolescents (n = 1,620. Brain response to facial expressions was measured in 25 regions constituting a face network, as defined previously. In 9 out of these 25 regions, common genetic variance explained a significant proportion of phenotypic variance (40-50% in their response to ambiguous facial expressions; this was not the case for angry facial expressions. Across the network, the strength of the genotype-phenotype relationship varied as a function of the inter-individual variability in the number of functional connections possessed by a given region (R(2 = 0.38, p<0.001. Furthermore, this variability showed an inverted U relationship with both the number of observed connections (R2 = 0.48, p<0.001 and the magnitude of brain response (R(2 = 0.32, p<0.001. Thus, a significant proportion of the brain response to facial expressions is predicted by common genetic variance in a subset of regions constituting the face network. These regions show the highest inter-individual variability in the number of connections with other network nodes, suggesting that the genetic model captures variations across the adolescent brains in co-opting these regions into the face network.

  6. Human activity recognition and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a unique view of human activity recognition, especially fine-grained human activity structure learning, human-interaction recognition, RGB-D data based action recognition, temporal decomposition, and causality learning in unconstrained human activity videos. The techniques discussed give readers tools that provide a significant improvement over existing methodologies of video content understanding by taking advantage of activity recognition. It links multiple popular research fields in computer vision, machine learning, human-centered computing, human-computer interaction, image classification, and pattern recognition. In addition, the book includes several key chapters covering multiple emerging topics in the field. Contributed by top experts and practitioners, the chapters present key topics from different angles and blend both methodology and application, composing a solid overview of the human activity recognition techniques. .

  7. Stroke volume variation compared with pulse pressure variation and cardiac index changes for prediction of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randa Aly Soliman

    2015-04-01

    Conclusions: Baseline stroke volume variation ⩾8.15% predicted fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients with acute circulatory failure. The study also confirmed the ability of pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness.

  8. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrian, Andrew B.; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M.

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non‐randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses. PMID:27492232

  9. Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, B; Andersen, E S; Damgaard, Christian Kroun

    2004-01-01

    of approach. Determining these rates can be hard to do reliably without a large and accurate initial alignment, which ideally also has structural annotation. Hence, one must often apply rates extracted from other RNA families with trusted alignments and structures. Here, we investigate this problem......Predicting RNA secondary structure using evolutionary history can be carried out by using an alignment of related RNA sequences with conserved structure. Accurately determining evolutionary substitution rates for base pairs and single stranded nucleotides is a concern for methods based on this type...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop regions...

  10. Activity Prediction: A Twitter-based Exploration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.

    2012-01-01

    Social media platforms allow users to share their messages with everyone else. In microblogs, e.g., Twitter, people mostly report on what they did, they talk about current activities, and mention things they plan to do in the near future. In this paper, we propose the task of activity prediction, th

  11. Parameter variations in prediction skill optimization at ECMWF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollinaho, P.; Bechtold, P.; Leutbecher, M.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.; Järvinen, H.

    2013-11-01

    Algorithmic numerical weather prediction (NWP) skill optimization has been tested using the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We report the results of initial experimentation using importance sampling based on model parameter estimation methodology targeted for ensemble prediction systems, called the ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES). The same methodology was earlier proven to be a viable concept in low-order ordinary differential equation systems, and in large-scale atmospheric general circulation models (ECHAM5). Here we show that prediction skill optimization is possible even in the context of a system that is (i) of very high dimensionality, and (ii) carefully tuned to very high skill. We concentrate on four closure parameters related to the parameterizations of sub-grid scale physical processes of convection and formation of convective precipitation. We launch standard ensembles of medium-range predictions such that each member uses different values of the four parameters, and make sequential statistical inferences about the parameter values. Our target criterion is the squared forecast error of the 500 hPa geopotential height at day three and day ten. The EPPES methodology is able to converge towards closure parameter values that optimize the target criterion. Therefore, we conclude that estimation and cost function-based tuning of low-dimensional static model parameters is possible despite the very high dimensional state space, as well as the presence of stochastic noise due to initial state and physical tendency perturbations. The remaining question before EPPES can be considered as a generally applicable tool in model development is the correct formulation of the target criterion. The one used here is, in our view, very selective. Considering the multi-faceted question of improving forecast model performance, a more general target criterion should be developed

  12. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  13. Geometric Variational Methods for Controlled Active Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-08-01

    Kantorovich mass transfer problem,” Numerische Mathematik 84 (2000), pp. 375-393. [14] A. Blake and M. Isard , Active Contours, Springer-Verlag, New York...flow,” Artificial Intelligence, 23:185– 203, 1981. [59] M. Isard and A. Blake, ”CONDENSATION – conditional density propagation for visual tracking

  14. Folk beliefs about genetic variation predict avoidance of biracial individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia K Kang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available People give widely varying estimates for the amount of genetic overlap that exists between humans. While some laypeople believe that humans are highly genetically similar to one another, others believe that humans share very little genetic overlap. These studies examine how beliefs about genetic overlap affect neural and evaluative reactions to racially-ambiguous and biracial targets. In Study 1, we found that lower genetic overlap estimates predicted a stronger neural avoidance response to biracial compared to monoracial targets. In Study 2, we found that lower genetic overlap estimates predicted longer response times to classify biracial (versus monoracial faces into racial categories. In Study 3, we manipulated genetic overlap beliefs and found that participants in the low overlap condition explicitly rated biracial targets more negatively than those in the high overlap condition. Taken together, these data suggest that genetic overlap beliefs influence perceivers’ processing fluency and evaluation of biracial and racially-ambiguous individuals.

  15. Variation in nocturnality and circadian activity rhythms between photoresponsive F344 and nonphotoresponsive Sprague Dawley rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seroka, Cheryl D; Johnson, Cynthia E; Heideman, Paul D

    2008-01-01

    Background Variation in circadian rhythms and nocturnality may, hypothetically, be related to or independent of genetic variation in photoperiodic mediation of seasonal changes in physiology and behavior. We hypothesized that strain variation in photoperiodism between photoperiodic F344 rats and nonphotoperiodic Harlan Sprague Dawley (HSD) rats might be caused by underlying variation in clock function. We predicted that HSD rats would have more activity during the day or subjective day, longer free-running rhythms, poor entrainment to short day length, and shorter duration of activity, traits that have been associated with nonphotoperiodism in other laboratory rodent species, relative to F344 rats. An alternative hypothesis, that differences are due to variation in melatonin secretion or responses to melatonin, predicts either no such differences or inconsistent combinations of differences. Methods We tested these predictions by examining activity rhythms of young male F344 and HSD rats given access to running wheels in constant dark (DD), short day length (L8:D16; SD), and long day length (L16:D8; LD). We compared nocturnality (the proportion of activity during night or subjective night), duration of activity (alpha), activity onset and offset, phase angle of entrainment, and free running rhythms (tau) of F344 and HSD rats. Results HSD rats had significantly greater activity during the day, were sometimes arrhythmic in DD, and had significantly longer tau than F344 rats, consistent with predictions. However, HSD rats had significantly longer alpha than F344 rats and both strains entrained to SD, inconsistent with predictions. Conclusion The ability of HSD rats to entrain to SD, combined with longer alpha than F344 rats, suggests that the circadian system of HSD rats responds correctly to SD. These data offer best support for the alternative hypothesis, that differences in photoresponsiveness between F344 and HSD rats are caused by non-circadian differences in

  16. Intra- and Inter-Fractional Variation Prediction of Lung Tumors Using Fuzzy Deep Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seonyeong; Lee, Suk Jin; Weiss, Elisabeth; Motai, Yuichi

    2016-01-01

    Tumor movements should be accurately predicted to improve delivery accuracy and reduce unnecessary radiation exposure to healthy tissue during radiotherapy. The tumor movements pertaining to respiration are divided into intra-fractional variation occurring in a single treatment session and inter-fractional variation arising between different sessions. Most studies of patients' respiration movements deal with intra-fractional variation. Previous studies on inter-fractional variation are hardly mathematized and cannot predict movements well due to inconstant variation. Moreover, the computation time of the prediction should be reduced. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new predictor for intra- and inter-fractional data variation, called intra- and inter-fraction fuzzy deep learning (IIFDL), where FDL, equipped with breathing clustering, predicts the movement accurately and decreases the computation time. Through the experimental results, we validated that the IIFDL improved root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 29.98% and prediction overshoot by 70.93%, compared with existing methods. The results also showed that the IIFDL enhanced the average RMSE and overshoot by 59.73% and 83.27%, respectively. In addition, the average computation time of IIFDL was 1.54 ms for both intra- and inter-fractional variation, which was much smaller than the existing methods. Therefore, the proposed IIFDL might achieve real-time estimation as well as better tracking techniques in radiotherapy.

  17. Individual variation in avian reproductive physiology does not reliably predict variation in laying date

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaper, Sonja V.; Dawson, Alistair; Sharp, Peter J.; Caro, Samuel P.; Visser, Marcel E.

    2012-01-01

    Most animals reproduce seasonally. They time their reproduction in response to environmental cues, like increasing photoperiod and temperature, which are predictive for the time of high food availability. Although individuals of a population use the same cues, they vary in their onset of reproductio

  18. Application of Method of Variation to Analyze and Predict Human Induced Modifications of Water Resource Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessu, S. B.; Melesse, A. M.; Mahadev, B.; McClain, M.

    2010-12-01

    Water resource systems have often used gravitational surface and subsurface flows because of their practicality in hydrological modeling and prediction. Activities such as inter/intra-basin water transfer, the use of small pumps and the construction of micro-ponds challenge the tradition of natural rivers as water resource management unit. On the contrary, precipitation is barely affected by topography and plot harvesting in wet regions can be more manageable than diverting from rivers. Therefore, it is indicative to attend to systems where precipitation drives the dynamics while the internal mechanics constitutes spectrum of human activity and decision in a network of plots. The trade-in volume and path of harvested precipitation depends on water balance, energy balance and the kinematics of supply and demand. Method of variation can be used to understand and predict the implication of local excess precipitation harvest and exchange on the natural water system. A system model was developed using the variational form of Euler-Bernoulli’s equation for the Kenyan Mara River basin. Satellite derived digital elevation models, precipitation estimates, and surface properties such as fractional impervious surface area, are used to estimate the available water resource. Four management conditions are imposed in the model: gravitational flow, open water extraction and high water use investment at upstream and downstream respectively. According to the model, the first management maintains the basin status quo while the open source management could induce externality. The high water market at the upstream in the third management offers more than 50% of the basin-wide total revenue to the upper third section of the basin thus may promote more harvesting. The open source and upstream exploitation suggest potential drop of water availability to downstream. The model exposed the latent potential of economic gradient to reconfigure the flow network along the direction where the

  19. On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    The level of skill in predicting the size of the sunspot cycle is investigated for the two types of precursor techniques, single variate and bivariate fits, both applied to cycle 22. The present level of growth in solar activity is compared to the mean level of growth (cycles 10-21) and to the predictions based on the precursor techniques. It is shown that, for cycle 22, both single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) and bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude smaller than that observed for cycle 19, and possibly for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it were a +2.6 sigma cycle (maximum amplitude of about 225), which means that either it will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques or its deviation relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months.

  20. Melanopsin Gene Variations Interact With Season to Predict Sleep Onset and Chronotype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roecklein, Kathryn A.; Wong, Patricia M.; Franzen, Peter L.; Hasler, Brant P.; Wood-Vasey, W. Michael; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L.; Miller, Megan A.; Kepreos, Kyle M.; Ferrell, Robert E.; Manuck, Stephen B.

    2013-01-01

    The human melanopsin gene has been reported to mediate risk for seasonal affective disorder (SAD), which is hypothesized to be caused by decreased photic input during winter when light levels fall below threshold, resulting in differences in circadian phase and/or sleep. However, it is unclear if melanopsin increases risk of SAD by causing differences in sleep or circadian phase, or if those differences are symptoms of the mood disorder. To determine if melanopsin sequence variations are associated with differences in sleep-wake behavior among those not suffering from a mood disorder, the authors tested associations between melanopsin gene polymorphisms and self-reported sleep timing (sleep onset and wake time) in a community sample (N = 234) of non-Hispanic Caucasian participants (age 30–54 yrs) with no history of psychological, neurological, or sleep disorders. The authors also tested the effect of melanopsin variations on differences in preferred sleep and activity timing (i.e., chronotype), which may reflect differences in circadian phase, sleep homeostasis, or both. Daylength on the day of assessment was measured and included in analyses. DNA samples were genotyped for melanopsin gene polymorphisms using fluorescence polarization. P10L genotype interacted with daylength to predict self-reported sleep onset (interaction p seasonal patterns of recurrence or exacerbation. PMID:22881342

  1. Predictive Distribution of the Dirichlet Mixture Model by the Local Variational Inference Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zhanyu; Leijon, Arne; Tan, Zheng-Hua;

    2014-01-01

    In Bayesian analysis of a statistical model, the predictive distribution is obtained by marginalizing over the parameters with their posterior distributions. Compared to the frequently used point estimate plug-in method, the predictive distribution leads to a more reliable result in calculating...... the predictive likelihood of the new upcoming data, especially when the amount of training data is small. The Bayesian estimation of a Dirichlet mixture model (DMM) is, in general, not analytically tractable. In our previous work, we have proposed a global variational inference-based method for approximately...... calculating the posterior distributions of the parameters in the DMM analytically. In this paper, we extend our previous study for the DMM and propose an algorithm to calculate the predictive distribution of the DMM with the local variational inference (LVI) method. The true predictive distribution of the DMM...

  2. CREATING THE KULTUK POLYGON FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: VARIATIONS OF (234U/238U) AND 87SR/86SR IN GROUNDWATER FROM ACTIVE FAULTS AT THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE BAIKAL

    OpenAIRE

    S. V. Rasskazov; E. P. Chebykin; A. M. Ilyasova; E. N. Vodneva; I. S. Chuvashova; Bornyakov, S. A.; A. K. Seminsky; S. V. Snopkov; V. V. Chechel'nitsky; N. A. Gileva

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. Determinations of (234U/238U) in groundwater samples are used for monitoring current deformations in active faults (parentheses denote activity ratio units). The cyclic equilibrium of activity ratio 234U/238U≈≈(234U/238U)≈γ≈1 corresponds to the atomic ratio ≈5.47×10–5. This parameter may vary due to higher contents of 234U nuclide in groundwater as a result of rock deformation. This effect discovered by P.I. Chalov and V.V. Cherdyntsev was described in [Cherdyntsev, 1969, 1973; ...

  3. Variations in toxicity of semi-coking wastewater treatment processes and their toxicity prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xiaochang; Liu, Yongjun; Gao, Jian; Wang, Yongkun

    2017-04-01

    Chemical analyses and bioassays using Vibrio fischeri and Daphnia magna were conducted to evaluate comprehensively the variation of biotoxicity caused by contaminants in wastewater from a semi-coking wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Pretreatment units (including an oil-water separator, a phenols extraction tower, an ammonia stripping tower, and a regulation tank) followed by treatment units (including anaerobic-oxic treatment units, coagulation-sedimentation treatment units, and an active carbon adsorption column) were employed in the semi-coking WWTP. Five benzenes, 11 phenols, and five polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were investigated as the dominant contaminants in semi-coking wastewater. Because of residual extractant, the phenols extraction process increased acute toxicity to V. fischeri and immobilization and lethal toxicity to D. magna. The acute toxicity of pretreated wastewater to V. fischeri was still higher than that of raw semi-coking wastewater, even though 90.0% of benzenes, 94.8% of phenols, and 81.0% of PAHs were removed. After wastewater pretreatment, phenols and PAHs were mainly removed by anaerobic-oxic and coagulation-sedimentation treatment processes respectively, and a subsequent active carbon adsorption process further reduced the concentrations of all target chemicals to below detection limits. An effective biotoxicity reduction was found during the coagulation-sedimentation and active carbon adsorption treatment processes. The concentration addition model can be applied for toxicity prediction of wastewater from the semi-coking WWTP. The deviation between the measured and predicted toxicity results may result from the effects of compounds not detectable by instrumental analyses, the synergistic effect of detected contaminants, or possible transformation products. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Exploring variation in active network size : Constraints and ego characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roberts, Sam G. B.; Dunbar, Robin I. M.; Pollet, Thomas V.; Kuppens, Toon

    2009-01-01

    Studies of active personal networks have primarily focused on providing reliable estimates of the size of the network. In this study, we examine how compositional properties of the network and ego characteristics are related to Variation in network size. There was a negative relationship between mea

  5. Prediction control of active power filters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王莉娜; 罗安

    2003-01-01

    A prediction method to obtain harmonic reference for active power filter is presented. It is a new use ofthe adaptive predictive filter based on FIR. The delay inherent in digital controller is successfully compensated by u-sing the proposed method, and the computing load is not very large compared with the conventional method. Moreo-ver, no additional hardware is needed. Its DSP-based realization is also presented, which is characterized by time-va-riant rate sampling, quasi synchronous sampling, and synchronous operation among the line frequency, PWM gener-ating and sampling in A/D unit. Synchronous operation releases the limitation on PWM modulation ratio and guar-antees that the electrical noises resulting from the switching operation of IGBTs do not interfere with the sampledcurrent. The simulation and experimental results verify the satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

  6. Variation in masticatory muscle activity during subsequent, submaximal clenching efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobbezoo, F; Huddleston Slater, J J R

    2002-06-01

    In previous studies to the relative contribution of the jaw closing muscles to the maintenance of submaximal clenching levels, a considerable variation in the electromyography (EMG) activities of these muscles during subsequent efforts was found. In this study, it was examined to what extent this variation could be explained by coincidental variations in mandibular positioning. From seven healthy individuals, a total of 90 EMG sweeps was recorded: three conditions (intercuspal position and two types of stabilization appliances) x three clenching levels (10, 30 and 50% of maximum voluntary contraction level) x 10 repetitions. Mandibular position was monitored with a six degrees of freedom opto-electronic jaw movement recording system. Variations in mandibular positioning during subsequent, submaximal clenching efforts explained up to 25% of the variance in the indices that quantify the relative contribution of the jaw closing muscles to the total clenching effort (P=0.000; ANOVA). Only a weak dependency of positioning upon clenching condition was found whereas during higher clenching levels, the positioning effect tended to be smaller than during lower levels. In conclusion small, coincidental variations in mandibular positioning during subsequent clenching efforts partly explain the variance in EMG activity of jaw closing muscles, especially at lower clenching levels.

  7. Variation in GYS1 interacts with exercise and gender to predict cardiovascular mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Fredriksson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The muscle glycogen synthase gene (GYS1 has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, the metabolic syndrome (MetS, male myocardial infarction and a defective increase in muscle glycogen synthase protein in response to exercise. We addressed the questions whether polymorphism in GYS1 can predict cardiovascular (CV mortality in a high-risk population, if this risk is influenced by gender or physical activity, and if the association is independent of genetic variation in nearby apolipoprotein E gene (APOE. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Polymorphisms in GYS1 (XbaIC>T and APOE (-219G>T, epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 were genotyped in 4,654 subjects participating in the Botnia T2D-family study and followed for a median of eight years. Mortality analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazards regression. During the follow-up period, 749 individuals died, 409 due to CV causes. In males the GYS1 XbaI T-allele (hazard ratio (HR 1.9 [1.2-2.9], T2D (2.5 [1.7-3.8], earlier CV events (1.7 [1.2-2.5], physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.9] and smoking (1.5 [1.0-2.3] predicted CV mortality. The GYS1 XbaI T-allele predicted CV mortality particularly in physically active males (HR 1.7 [1.3-2.0]. Association of GYS1 with CV mortality was independent of APOE (219TT/epsilon4, which by its own exerted an effect on CV mortality risk in females (2.9 [1.9-4.4]. Other independent predictors of CV mortality in females were fasting plasma glucose (1.2 [1.1-1.2], high body mass index (BMI (1.0 [1.0-1.1], hypertension (1.9 [1.2-3.1], earlier CV events (1.9 [1.3-2.8] and physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.8]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Polymorphisms in GYS1 and APOE predict CV mortality in T2D families in a gender-specific fashion and independently of each other. Physical exercise seems to unmask the effect associated with the GYS1 polymorphism, rendering carriers of the variant allele less susceptible to the protective effect of exercise on the risk of CV death

  8. CERAPP: Collaborative estrogen receptor activity prediction project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansouri, Kamel; Abdelaziz, Ahmed; Rybacka, Aleksandra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. Some chemicals mimic natural endocrine hormones and, thus, have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these chemicals have never been tested for their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER......). Risk assessors need tools to prioritize chemicals for evaluation in costly in vivo tests, for instance, within the U.S. EPA Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program. oBjectives: We describe a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project...

  9. Genetic and nongenetic sources of variation in phospholipid transfer protein activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvik, Gail P; Rajagopalan, Ramakrishnan; Rosenthal, Elisabeth A; Wolfbauer, Gertrud; McKinstry, Laura; Vaze, Aditya; Brunzell, John; Motulsky, Arno G; Nickerson, Deborah A; Heagerty, Patrick J; Wijsman, Ellen M; Albers, John J

    2010-05-01

    Phospholipid transfer protein (PLTP) belongs to the lipid transfer/lipopolysaccharide-binding protein gene family. Expression of PLTP has been implicated in the development of atherosclerosis. We evaluated the effects of PLTP region tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on the prediction of both carotid artery disease (CAAD) and PLTP activity. CAAD effects were evaluated in 442 Caucasian male subjects with severe CAAD and 497 vascular disease-free controls. SNP prediction of PLTP transfer activity was evaluated in both a subsample of 87 subjects enriched for an allele of interest and in a confirmation sample of 210 Caucasian males and females. Hemoglobin A1c or insulin level predicted 11-14% of age- and sex-adjusted PLTP activity. PLTP SNPs that predicted approximately 11-30% of adjusted PLTP activity variance were identified in the two cohorts. For rs6065904, the allele that was associated with CAAD was also associated with elevated PLTP activity in both cohorts. SNPs associated with PLTP activity also predicted variation in LDL-cholesterol and LDL-B level only in the replication cohort. These results demonstrate that PLTP activity is strongly influenced by PLTP region polymorphisms and metabolic factors.

  10. Neutron flux variations near the Earth’s crust. A possible tectonic activity detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Kuzhevskij

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work contains some results of observations of neutron flux variations near the Earth’s surface. The Earth’s crust is determined to be a significant source of thermal and slow neutrons, originated from the interaction between the nuclei of the elements of the Earth’s crust and the atmosphere and α-particles, produced by decay of radioactive gases (Radon, Thoron and Actinon. In turn, variations of radioactive gases exhalation is connected with geodynamical processes in the Earth’s crust, including tectonic activity. This determined relation between the processes in the Earth’s crust and neutrons’ flux allow to use variations of thermal and slow neutrons’ flux in order to observe increasing tectonic activity and to develop methods for short-term prediction of natural hazards.

  11. T2 map signal variation predicts symptomatic osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Haoti; Miller, David J. [The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Electrical Engineering, University Park, PA (United States); Urish, Kenneth L. [Magee Womens Hospital of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, The Bone and Joint Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2016-07-15

    The aim of this work is to use quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify patients at risk for symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) progression. We hypothesized that classification of signal variation on T2 maps might predict symptomatic OA progression. Patients were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a prospective cohort. Two groups were identified: a symptomatic OA progression group and a control group. At baseline, both groups were asymptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis [WOMAC] pain score total <10) with no radiographic evidence of OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] score ≤ 1). The OA progression group (n = 103) had a change in total WOMAC score greater than 10 by the 3-year follow-up. The control group (n = 79) remained asymptomatic, with a change in total WOMAC score less than 10 at the 3-year follow-up. A classifier was designed to predict OA progression in an independent population based on T2 map cartilage signal variation. The classifier was designed using a nearest neighbor classification based on a Gaussian Mixture Model log-likelihood fit of T2 map cartilage voxel intensities. The use of T2 map signal variation to predict symptomatic OA progression in asymptomatic individuals achieved a specificity of 89.3 %, a sensitivity of 77.2 %, and an overall accuracy rate of 84.2 %. T2 map signal variation can predict symptomatic knee OA progression in asymptomatic individuals, serving as a possible early OA imaging biomarker. (orig.)

  12. Predicting Risk Sensitivity in Humans and Lower Animals: Risk as Variance or Coefficient of Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U.; Shafir, Sharoni; Blais, Ann-Renee

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

  13. Noninvasively derived stroke volume variation by finger volume clamping can reliably predict fluid responsiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Struys, Michel; Scheeren, Thomas; Kalmar, A.F.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Goal of Study:  Dynamic preload variables derived from the arterial pressure waveform have been shown to accurately predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. One of these variables, stroke volume variation (SVV), can also be obtained noninvasively by the finger

  14. Predicting Risk Sensitivity in Humans and Lower Animals: Risk as Variance or Coefficient of Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U.; Shafir, Sharoni; Blais, Ann-Renee

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

  15. Erosional response of an actively uplifting mountain belt to cyclic rainfall variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, J.; Voisin, C.; Gourlan, A. T.; Chauvel, C.

    2015-01-01

    We present an approximate analytical solution to the stream power equation describing the erosion of bedrock in an actively uplifting mountain range subject to periodic variations in precipitation rate. It predicts a time lag between the climate forcing and the erosional response of the system that increases with the forcing period. The predicted variations in the sedimentary flux coming out of the mountain are also scaled with respect to the imposed rainfall variations in a direct proportion to the discharge exponent, m, in the stream power law expression. These findings are confirmed by 1-D and 2-D numerical solutions. We also show that the response of a river channel is independent of its length and thus the size of its catchment area, implying that all actively eroding streams in a mountain belt will constructively contribute to the integrated signal in the sedimentary record. We show that rainfall variability at Milankovitch periods should affect the erosional response of fast uplifting mountain belts such as the Himalayas, Taiwan or the South Island, New Zealand, and predict 1000 to 10 000-year offsets between forcing and response. We suggest that this theoretical prediction could be used to independently constrain the value of the poorly defined stream power law exponents, and provide an example of how this could be done, using geochemical proxy signals from an ODP borehole in the Bengal Fan.

  16. Pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness in spontaneously breathing patients: tidal vs. forced inspiratory breathing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, D M; Lee, J M; Seo, J H; Min, J J; Jeon, Y; Bahk, J H

    2014-07-01

    We evaluated whether pulse pressure variation can predict fluid responsiveness in spontaneously breathing patients. Fifty-nine elective thoracic surgical patients were studied before induction of general anaesthesia. After volume expansion with hydroxyethyl starch 6 ml.kg(-1) , patients were defined as responders by a ≥ 15% increase in the cardiac index. Haemodynamic variables were measured before and after volume expansion and pulse pressure variations were calculated during tidal breathing and during forced inspiratory breathing. Median (IQR [range]) pulse pressure variation during forced inspiratory breathing was significantly higher in responders (n = 29) than in non-responders (n = 30) before volume expansion (18.2 (IQR 14.7-18.2 [9.3-31.3])% vs. 10.1 (IQR 8.3-12.6 [4.8-21.1])%, respectively, p breathing could predict fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.910, p breathing can be used to guide fluid management in spontaneously breathing patients.

  17. Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Duma

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistic analyses demonstrate that the probability of earthquake occurrence in many earthquake regions strongly depends on the time of day, that is on Local Time (e.g. Conrad, 1909, 1932; Shimshoni, 1971; Duma, 1997; Duma and Vilardo, 1998. This also applies to strong earthquake activity. Moreover, recent observations reveal an involvement of the regular diurnal variations of the Earth’s magnetic field, commonly known as Sq-variations, in this geodynamic process of changing earthquake activity with the time of day (Duma, 1996, 1999. In the article it is attempted to quantify the forces which result from the interaction between the induced Sq-variation currents in the Earth’s lithosphere and the regional Earth’s magnetic field, in order to assess the influence on the tectonic stress field and on seismic activity. A reliable model is obtained, which indicates a high energy involved in this process. The effect of Sq-induction is compared with the results of the large scale electromagnetic experiment "Khibiny" (Velikhov, 1989, where a giant artificial current loop was activated in the Barents Sea.

  18. Response of global lightning activity to air temperature variation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Ming; TAO Shanchang; ZHU Baoyou; L(U) Weitao; TAN Yongbo

    2005-01-01

    It is an issue of great attention but yet not very clear whether lightning activities increase or decrease on a warmer world. Reeve et al. presented that lightning activities in global land and the Northern Hemisphere land have positive response to the increase of wet bulb temperature at 1000hPa. Is this positive response restricted only to wet bulb temperature or in land? What is the response of global lightning activities (in both land and ocean) to the global surface air temperature variation like? This paper, based on the 5-year or 8-year OTD/LIS satellite-based lightning detecting data and the NCEP reanalysis data, makes a reanalysis of the response of the global and regional lightning activities to temperature variations. The results show that on the interannual time scale the global total flash rate has positive response to the variation in global surface air temperature, with the sensitivity of 17±7% K-1. Also, the seasonal mean flash rate of continents all over the world and that of continents in the Northern Hemisphere have sensitive positive response to increase of global surface air temperature and wet bulb temperature, with the sensitivity of about 13±5% K-1, a bit lower than estimation of 40% K-1 in Reeve et al. However, the Southern Hemisphere and other areas like the tropics show no significant correlation.

  19. Intrapulpal temperature variation during bleaching with various activation mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia Masae de Araujo Michida

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the intrapulpal temperature variation after bleaching treatment with 35% hydrogen peroxide using different sources of activation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twenty-four human teeth were sectioned in the mesiodistal direction providing 48 specimens, and were divided into 4 groups (n=12: (G1 Control - Bleaching gel without light activation, (G2 Bleaching gel + halogen light, (G3 Bleaching gel + LED, (G4 Bleaching gel + Nd:YAG Laser. The temperatures were recorded using a digital thermometer at 4 time points: before bleaching gel application, 1 min after bleaching gel application, during activation of the bleaching gel, and after the bleaching agent turned from a dark-red into a clear gel. Data were analyzed statistically by the Dunnet's test, ANOVA and Tukey's test (a=0.05. RESULTS: The mean intrapulpal temperature values (ºC in the groups were: G1: 0.617 ± 0.41; G2: 1.800 ± 0.68; G3: 0.975 ± 0.51; and G4: 4.325 ± 1.09. The mean maximum temperature variation (MTV values were: 1.5ºC (G1, 2.9ºC (G2, 1.7ºC (G3 and 6.9ºC (G4. When comparing the experimental groups to the control group, G3 was not statistically different from G1 (p>0.05, but G2 and G4 presented significantly higher (p<0.05 intrapulpal temperatures and MTV. The three experimental groups differed significantly (p<0.05 from each other. CONCLUSIONS: The Nd:YAG laser was the activation method that presented the highest values of intrapulpal temperature variation when compared with LED and halogen light. The group activated by LED light presented the lowest values of temperature variation, which were similar to that of the control group.

  20. Active structural vibration control: Robust to temperature variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vivek; Sharma, Manu; Thakur, Nagesh

    2012-11-01

    d-form augmented piezoelectric constitutive equations which take into account temperature dependence of piezoelectric strain coefficient (d31) and permittivity (∈33), are converted into e-form. Using e-form constitutive equations, a finite element model of a smart two dimensional plate instrumented with piezoelectric patches is derived. Equations of motion are derived using Hamilton's variational principle. Coupled equations of motion are uncoupled using modal analysis. Modal state vectors are estimated using the Kalman observer. The first mode of smart cantilevered plate is actively controlled using negative first modal velocity feedback at various temperatures. Total control effort required to do so is calculated using the electro-mechanical impedance method. The temperature dependence of sensor voltage, control voltage, control effort and Kalman observer equations is shown analytically. Simulation results are presented using MATLAB. Variations in (i) peak sensor voltage, (ii) actual and estimated first modal velocities, (iii) peak control voltage, (iv) total control effort and (v) settling time with respect to temperature are presented. Active vibration control performance is not maintained at temperature away from reference temperature when the temperature dependence of piezoelectric stress coefficient ‘e31' and permittivity ‘∈33' is not included in piezoelectric constitutive equations. Active control of vibrations becomes robust to temperature variations when the temperature dependence of ‘e31' and ‘∈33' is included in piezoelectric constitutive equations.

  1. Melanopsin gene variations interact with season to predict sleep onset and chronotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roecklein, Kathryn A; Wong, Patricia M; Franzen, Peter L; Hasler, Brant P; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Miller, Megan A; Kepreos, Kyle M; Ferrell, Robert E; Manuck, Stephen B

    2012-10-01

    The human melanopsin gene has been reported to mediate risk for seasonal affective disorder (SAD), which is hypothesized to be caused by decreased photic input during winter when light levels fall below threshold, resulting in differences in circadian phase and/or sleep. However, it is unclear if melanopsin increases risk of SAD by causing differences in sleep or circadian phase, or if those differences are symptoms of the mood disorder. To determine if melanopsin sequence variations are associated with differences in sleep-wake behavior among those not suffering from a mood disorder, the authors tested associations between melanopsin gene polymorphisms and self-reported sleep timing (sleep onset and wake time) in a community sample (N = 234) of non-Hispanic Caucasian participants (age 30-54 yrs) with no history of psychological, neurological, or sleep disorders. The authors also tested the effect of melanopsin variations on differences in preferred sleep and activity timing (i.e., chronotype), which may reflect differences in circadian phase, sleep homeostasis, or both. Daylength on the day of assessment was measured and included in analyses. DNA samples were genotyped for melanopsin gene polymorphisms using fluorescence polarization. P10L genotype interacted with daylength to predict self-reported sleep onset (interaction p sleep onset among those with the TT genotype was later in the day when individuals were assessed on longer days and earlier in the day on shorter days, whereas individuals in the other genotype groups (i.e., CC and CT) did not show this interaction effect. P10L genotype also interacted in an analogous way with daylength to predict self-reported morningness (interaction p sleep onset and chronotype as a function of daylength, whereas other genotypes at P10L do not seem to have effects that vary by daylength. A better understanding of how melanopsin confers heightened responsivity to daylength may improve our understanding of a broad range of

  2. Variational Bayesian identification and prediction of stochastic nonlinear dynamic causal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daunizeau, J.; Friston, K. J.; Kiebel, S. J.

    2009-11-01

    In this paper, we describe a general variational Bayesian approach for approximate inference on nonlinear stochastic dynamic models. This scheme extends established approximate inference on hidden-states to cover: (i) nonlinear evolution and observation functions, (ii) unknown parameters and (precision) hyperparameters and (iii) model comparison and prediction under uncertainty. Model identification or inversion entails the estimation of the marginal likelihood or evidence of a model. This difficult integration problem can be finessed by optimising a free-energy bound on the evidence using results from variational calculus. This yields a deterministic update scheme that optimises an approximation to the posterior density on the unknown model variables. We derive such a variational Bayesian scheme in the context of nonlinear stochastic dynamic hierarchical models, for both model identification and time-series prediction. The computational complexity of the scheme is comparable to that of an extended Kalman filter, which is critical when inverting high dimensional models or long time-series. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we assess the estimation efficiency of this variational Bayesian approach using three stochastic variants of chaotic dynamic systems. We also demonstrate the model comparison capabilities of the method, its self-consistency and its predictive power.

  3. Geomagnetic imprinting predicts spatio-temporal variation in homing migration of pink and sockeye salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, Nathan F; Jenkins, Erica S; Michielsens, Catherine G J; Noakes, David L G

    2014-10-06

    Animals navigate using a variety of sensory cues, but how each is weighted during different phases of movement (e.g. dispersal, foraging, homing) is controversial. Here, we examine the geomagnetic and olfactory imprinting hypotheses of natal homing with datasets that recorded variation in the migratory routes of sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) salmon returning from the Pacific Ocean to the Fraser River, British Columbia. Drift of the magnetic field (i.e. geomagnetic imprinting) uniquely accounted for 23.2% and 44.0% of the variation in migration routes for sockeye and pink salmon, respectively. Ocean circulation (i.e. olfactory imprinting) predicted 6.1% and 0.1% of the variation in sockeye and pink migration routes, respectively. Sea surface temperature (a variable influencing salmon distribution but not navigation, directly) accounted for 13.0% of the variation in sockeye migration but was unrelated to pink migration. These findings suggest that geomagnetic navigation plays an important role in long-distance homing in salmon and that consideration of navigation mechanisms can aid in the management of migratory fishes by better predicting movement patterns. Finally, given the diversity of animals that use the Earth's magnetic field for navigation, geomagnetic drift may provide a unifying explanation for spatio-temporal variation in the movement patterns of many species. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  4. A Variational Bayes Genomic-Enabled Prediction Model with Genotype × Environment Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osval A. Montesinos-López

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are Bayesian and non-Bayesian genomic models that take into account G×E interactions. However, the computational cost of implementing Bayesian models is high, and becomes almost impossible when the number of genotypes, environments, and traits is very large, while, in non-Bayesian models, there are often important and unsolved convergence problems. The variational Bayes method is popular in machine learning, and, by approximating the probability distributions through optimization, it tends to be faster than Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For this reason, in this paper, we propose a new genomic variational Bayes version of the Bayesian genomic model with G×E using half-t priors on each standard deviation (SD term to guarantee highly noninformative and posterior inferences that are not sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters. We show the complete theoretical derivation of the full conditional and the variational posterior distributions, and their implementations. We used eight experimental genomic maize and wheat data sets to illustrate the new proposed variational Bayes approximation, and compared its predictions and implementation time with a standard Bayesian genomic model with G×E. Results indicated that prediction accuracies are slightly higher in the standard Bayesian model with G×E than in its variational counterpart, but, in terms of computation time, the variational Bayes genomic model with G×E is, in general, 10 times faster than the conventional Bayesian genomic model with G×E. For this reason, the proposed model may be a useful tool for researchers who need to predict and select genotypes in several environments.

  5. Hypermetabolism of skeletal muscles following sexual activity: a normal variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Byung Wook; Kim, Sung Hoon; Kim, Hae Won; Won, Kyoung Sook; Zeon, Seok Kil

    2010-09-01

    A 46-year-old man with early gastric cancer at the gastric antrum underwent an F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)-computer tomography (CT) scan for staging. No definite abnormal FDG uptake of the stomach was shown. Incidentally, variable FDG uptake at the bilateral serratus muscles, abdominal muscles and muscles of both thighs (Fig. 1) was observed. He had no significant past medical history except recently diagnosed stomach cancer. On personal interview, he described having had sexual activity the night before the F-18 FDG PET/CT scan, although he was aware of needing to avoid physical activity before a PET scan. The F-18 FDG PET/CT scan was done at 2:00 p.m. Therefore, the hypermetabolism of individual skeletal muscles following sexual activity lasted over 12 h. This case illustrates the hypermetabolism of skeletal muscles following sexual activity as a normal variation.

  6. Flare in spondyloarthritis: Thresholds of disease activity variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfrin-Valnet, Marie; Puyraveau, Marc; Prati, Clément; Wendling, Daniel

    2015-05-01

    There is no definition of flare in spondyloarthritis (SpA). The aim of this study was to evaluate thresholds of disease activity variations using validated composite indexes. SpA patients (ASAS criteria) prospectively followed with at least two visits, were evaluated. Patients and physician answered at each visit the question: "do you consider your SpA/patient in a state of flare?". Variations of BASDAI and ASDAS between visits were assessed and associated to the change of perception of a flare (yes/no). ROC curves were built to assess thresholds of variation in BASDAI and ASDAS associated with the change flare between visits. The patients were issued from a prospective series of 250 SpA. Ninety-nine cases with at least 2 visits were analysed. They were: 67% men, mean age 45±12 years; disease duration: 16±10 years; 84% HLA-B27 positive; purely axial SpA: 81%; PASS at baseline: 56%; mean CRP: 8.6±13.5mg/l. Mean BASDAI and ASDAS-CRP at baseline were 4.3±2.2 and 2.5±1.1, respectively. The kappa coefficient of agreement between patient and physician for considering a flare was 0.68. The main results of the ROC curves are: a variation ≥2.1 units in BASDAI (sensitivity 59%, specificity 83%), 0.8 units in ASDAS-ESR (sen 56%, spe 91%) or 1.3 units in ASDAS-CRP (sen 47%, spe 100%) is associated to a flare. We propose thresholds of variations of BASDAI, ASDAS-ESR, and ASDAS-CRP associated to (and that may define) a flare, as considered by the patient and the physician. Copyright © 2015 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Explained variation and predictive accuracy in general parametric statistical models: the role of model misspecification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosthøj, Susanne; Keiding, Niels

    2004-01-01

    When studying a regression model measures of explained variation are used to assess the degree to which the covariates determine the outcome of interest. Measures of predictive accuracy are used to assess the accuracy of the predictions based on the covariates and the regression model. We give...... a detailed and general introduction to the two measures and the estimation procedures. The framework we set up allows for a study of the effect of misspecification on the quantities estimated. We also introduce a generalization to survival analysis....

  8. Fine-grained variation in caregivers' /s/ predicts their infants' /s/ category.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristià, Alejandrina

    2011-05-01

    Within the debate on the mechanisms underlying infants' perceptual acquisition, one hypothesis proposes that infants' perception is directly affected by the acoustic implementation of sound categories in the speech they hear. In consonance with this view, the present study shows that individual variation in fine-grained, subphonemic aspects of the acoustic realization of /s/ in caregivers' speech predicts infants' discrimination of this sound from the highly similar /∫/, suggesting that learning based on acoustic cue distributions may indeed drive natural phonological acquisition.

  9. Intraspecific morphological and genetic variation of common species predicts ranges of threatened ones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Trevon L.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Peralvo, Manuel; Buermann, Wolfgang; Milá, Borja; Kieswetter, Charles M.; Jarrín-V, Pablo; Devitt, Susan E. Cameron; Mason, Eliza; Schweizer, Rena M.; Schlunegger, Jasmin; Chan, Janice; Wang, Ophelia; Schneider, Christopher J.; Pollinger, John P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Graham, Catherine H.; Wayne, Robert K.; Smith, Thomas B.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible. PMID:23595273

  10. Seasonal variations in physical activity and implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shephard, Roy J; Aoyagi, Yukitoshi

    2009-10-01

    This review explores the implications of seasonal changes in physical activity for fitness and human health. Photosensitivity and nutrient shortages mediate animal hibernation via the hypothalamus and changes in leptin and ghrelin concentrations. Opportunities for hunting and crop cultivation determine seasonal activity in under-developed human societies, but in developed societies temperature and rainfall are dominant influences, usually over-riding innate rhythms. Both questionnaire data and objective measurements show that many groups from children to the elderly increase their physical activity from winter to spring or summer. Measurements of maximal oxygen intake and muscle strength commonly show parallel seasonal changes. However, potential effects upon body mass and body fat may be counteracted by changes of food intake; subsistence agriculturists sometimes maintain or increase physical activity at the expense of a decrease in body mass. In developed societies, body fat commonly increases during the winter, with parallel changes in blood lipids, blood pressure and blood coagulability; moreover, these changes are not always fully reversed the following summer. Most developed societies show increased all-cause and cardiac mortalities in the winter. Health consequences of seasonal variations in physical activity including an increased vulnerability to cardiac catastrophe and a year-by-year increase in total body fat seem most likely if the average level of physical activity for the year is low. Public health recommendations should underline the importance of maintaining physical activity during adverse environmental conditions by adapting clothing, modifying behaviour and exploiting any available air-conditioned indoor facilities.

  11. Active experiments in the ionosphere and geomagnetic field variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivokon, V. P.; Cherneva, N. V.; Khomutov, S. Y.; Serovetnikov, A. S.

    2014-11-01

    Variations of ionospheric-magnetospheric relation energy, as one of the possible outer climatology factors, may be traced on the basis of analysis of natural geophysical phenomena such as ionosphere artificial radio radiation and magnetic storms. Experiments on active impact on the ionosphere have been carried out for quite a long time in Russia as well. The most modern heating stand is located in Alaska; it has been used within the HAARP Program. The possibility of this stand to affect geophysical fields, in particular, the geomagnetic field is of interest.

  12. Predicting Variation of Folk Songs: A Corpus Analysis Study on the Memorability of Melodies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berit Janssen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a hypothesis-driven study on the variation of melody phrases in a collection of Dutch folk songs. We investigate the variation of phrases within the folk songs through a pattern matching method which detects occurrences of these phrases within folk song variants, and ask the question: do the phrases which show less variation have different properties than those which do? We hypothesize that theories on melody recall may predict variation, and as such, investigate phrase length, the position and number of repetitions of a given phrase in the melody in which it occurs, as well as expectancy and motif repetivity. We show that all of these predictors account for the observed variation to a moderate degree, and that, as hypothesized, those phrases vary less which are rather short, contain highly expected melodic material, occur relatively early in the melody, and contain small pitch intervals. A large portion of the variance is left unexplained by the current model, however, which leads us to a discussion of future approaches to study memorability of melodies.

  13. Predicting Variation of Folk Songs: A Corpus Analysis Study on the Memorability of Melodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Berit; Burgoyne, John A.; Honing, Henkjan

    2017-01-01

    We present a hypothesis-driven study on the variation of melody phrases in a collection of Dutch folk songs. We investigate the variation of phrases within the folk songs through a pattern matching method which detects occurrences of these phrases within folk song variants, and ask the question: do the phrases which show less variation have different properties than those which do? We hypothesize that theories on melody recall may predict variation, and as such, investigate phrase length, the position and number of repetitions of a given phrase in the melody in which it occurs, as well as expectancy and motif repetivity. We show that all of these predictors account for the observed variation to a moderate degree, and that, as hypothesized, those phrases vary less which are rather short, contain highly expected melodic material, occur relatively early in the melody, and contain small pitch intervals. A large portion of the variance is left unexplained by the current model, however, which leads us to a discussion of future approaches to study memorability of melodies. PMID:28487668

  14. Inter-individual variation in vertebral kinematics affects predictions of neck musculoskeletal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevins, Derek D; Zheng, Liying; Vasavada, Anita N

    2014-10-17

    Experimental studies have found significant variation in cervical intervertebral kinematics (IVK) among healthy subjects, but the effect of this variation on biomechanical properties, such as neck strength, has not been explored. The goal of this study was to quantify variation in model predictions of extension strength, flexion strength and gravitational demand (the ratio of gravitational load from the weight of the head to neck muscle extension strength), due to inter-subject variation in IVK. IVK were measured from sagittal radiographs of 24 subjects (14F, 10M) in five postures: maximal extension, mid-extension, neutral, mid-flexion, and maximal flexion. IVK were defined by the position (anterior-posterior and superior-inferior) of each cervical vertebra with respect to T1 and its angle with respect to horizontal, and fit with a cubic polynomial over the range of motion. The IVK of each subject were scaled and incorporated into musculoskeletal models to create models that were identical in muscle force- and moment-generating properties but had subject-specific kinematics. The effect of inter-subject variation in IVK was quantified using the coefficient of variation (COV), the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. COV of extension strength ranged from 8% to 15% over the range of motion, but COV of flexion strength was 20-80%. Moreover, the COV of gravitational demand was 80-90%, because the gravitational demand is affected by head position as well as neck strength. These results indicate that including inter-individual variation in models is important for evaluating neck musculoskeletal biomechanical properties.

  15. Marked variation in predicted and observed variability of tandem repeat loci across the human genome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shields Denis C

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tandem repeat (TR variants in the human genome play key roles in a number of diseases. However, current models predicting variability are based on limited training sets. We conducted a systematic analysis of TRs of unit lengths 2–12 nucleotides in Whole Genome Shotgun (WGS sequences to define the extent of variation of 209,214 unique repeat loci throughout the genome. Results We applied a multivariate statistical model to predict TR variability. Predicted heterozygosity correlated with heterozygosity in the CEPH polymorphism database (correlation ρ = 0.29, p Conclusion Variability among 2–12-mer TRs in the genome can be modeled by a few parameters, which do not markedly differ according to unit length, consistent with a common mechanism for the generation of variability among such TRs. Analysis of the distributions of observed and predicted variants across the genome showed a general concordance, indicating that the repeat variation dataset does not exhibit strong regional ascertainment biases. This revealed a deficit of variant repeats in chromosomes 19 and Y – likely to reflect a reduction in 2-mer repeats in the former and a reduced level of recombination in the latter – and excesses in chromosomes 6, 13, 20 and 21.

  16. A predictive model of community assembly that incorporates intraspecific trait variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, Daniel C; Joshi, Chaitanya; van Bodegom, Peter M; Bastow, Zachary A; Fulé, Peter Z

    2012-11-01

    Community assembly involves two antagonistic processes that select functional traits in opposite directions. Environmental filtering tends to increase the functional similarity of species within communities leading to trait convergence, whereas competition tends to limit the functional similarity of species within communities leading to trait divergence. Here, we introduce a new hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates intraspecific trait variation into a predictive framework to unify classic coexistence theory and evolutionary biology with recent trait-based approaches. Model predictions exhibited a significant positive correlation (r = 0.66) with observed relative abundances along a 10 °C gradient in mean annual temperature. The model predicted the correct dominant species in half of the plots, and accurately reproduced species' temperature optimums. The framework is generalizable to any ecosystem as it can accommodate any species pool, any set of functional traits and multiple environmental gradients, and it eliminates some of the criticisms associated with recent trait-based community assembly models.

  17. Isomorph theory prediction for the dielectric loss variation along an isochrone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiao, Wence; Tofteskov, Jon; Dyre, J. C.

    2015-01-01

    This paper derives a prediction for the variation of the amplitude of the dielectric loss from isomorph theory, and presents an experimental test of the prediction performed by measuring the dielectric relaxation behavior of the van der Waals liquid 5-phenyl-4-ether (5PPE). The liquid is studied...... is reproducible ± 0.1 %. We moreover find that the empty capacitance of the capacitor cell is stable within ± 0.3 % in our measuring range and can be assumed to be constant. Using this we predict for two isomorph states there is C2″(f) = C1″(f)(ρ1/ρ2)γ−1 to scale the imaginary capacitance, where C1...

  18. Variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton City Board of Education (Ontario).

    Suggestions for studying the topic of variation of individuals and objects (balls) to help develop elementary school students' measurement, comparison, classification, evaluation, and data collection and recording skills are made. General suggestions of variables that can be investigated are made for the study of human variation. Twelve specific…

  19. Solar Activity Predictions Based on Solar Dynamo Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    2009-05-01

    We review solar activity prediction methods, statistical, precursor, and recently the Dikpati and the Choudhury groups’ use of numerical flux-dynamo methods. Outlining various methods, we compare precursor techniques with weather forecasting. Precursors involve events prior to a solar cycle. First started by the Russian geomagnetician Ohl, and then Brown and Williams; the Earth's field variations near solar minimum was used to predict the next solar cycle, with a correlation of 0.95. From the standpoint of causality, as well as energetically, these relationships were somewhat bizarre. One index used was the "number of anomalous quiet days,” an antiquated, subjective index. Scientific progress cannot be made without some suspension of disbelief; otherwise old paradigms become tautologies. So, with youthful naïveté, Svalgaard, Scherrer, Wilcox and I viewed the results through rose-colored glasses and pressed ahead searching for understanding. We eventually fumbled our way to explaining how the Sun could broadcast the state of its internal dynamo to Earth. We noted one key aspect of the Babcock-Leighton Flux Dynamo theory: the polar field at the end of a cycle serves as a seed for the next cycle's growth. Near solar minimum this field usually bathes the Earth, and thereby affects geomagnetic indices then. We found support by examining 8 previous solar cycles. Using our solar precursor technique we successfully predicted cycles 21, 22 and 23 using WSO and MWSO data. Pesnell and I improved the method using a SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) Index. In 2005, nearing cycle 23's minimum, Svalgaard and I noted an unusually weak polar field, and forecasted a small cycle 24. We discuss future advances: the flux-dynamo methods. As far as future solar activity, I shall let the Sun decide; it will do so anyhow.

  20. Flatness Control Using Roll Coolant Based on Predicted Flatness Variation in Cold Rolling Mills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohmae, Yukihiro; Okamura, Yoshihide

    Flatness control for cold rolling mills is one of the important technologies for improving of product quality and productivity. In particular, poor flatness leads to strip tearing in the extreme case and, moreover, it significantly reduces productivity. Therefore, various flatness control system has been developed. The main actuators for flatness control are classified into two types; one is mechanical equipment such as roll bender, the other is roll coolant, which controls thermal expansion of roll. Flatness variation such as center buckle or edge wave is mainly controlled by mechanical actuator which has high response characteristics. On another front, flatness variation of local zone can be controlled by roll coolant although one's response is lower than the response of mechanical actuator. For accomplishing good flatness accuracy in cold rolling mills, it is important to improve the performance of coolant control moreover. In this paper, a new coolant control method based on flatness variation model is described. In proposed method, the state of coolant spray on or off is selected to minimize the flatness deviation by using predicted flatness variation. The effectiveness of developed system has been demonstrated by application in actual plant.

  1. On the Possibilities of Predicting Geomagnetic Secular Variation with Geodynamo Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Wei-Jia; Tangborn, Andrew; Sabaka, Terrance

    2004-01-01

    We use our MoSST core dynamics model and geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) continued downward from surface observations to investigate possibilities of geomagnetic data assimilation, so that model results and current geomagnetic observations can be used to predict geomagnetic secular variation in future. As the first attempt, we apply data insertion technique to examine evolution of the model solution that is modified by geomagnetic input. Our study demonstrate that, with a single data insertion, large-scale poloidal magnetic field obtained from subsequent numerical simulation evolves similarly to the observed geomagnetic variation, regardless of the initial choice of the model solution (so long it is a well developed numerical solution). The model solution diverges on the time scales on the order of 60 years, similar to the time scales of the torsional oscillations in the Earth's core. Our numerical test shows that geomagnetic data assimilation is promising with our MoSST model.

  2. Computational Methodology for the Prediction of Functional Requirement Variations Across the Product Life-Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Mandil, Guillaume; Rivière, Alain

    2009-01-01

    The great majority of engineered products are subject to thermo-mechanical loads which vary with the product environment during the various phases of its life-cycle (machining, assembly, intended service use...). Those load variations may result in different values of the parts nominal dimensions, which in turn generate corresponding variation of the effective clearance (functional requirement) in the assembly. Usually, and according to the contractual drawings, the parts are measured after the machining stage, whereas the interesting measurement values are the ones taken in service for they allow the prediction of clearance value under operating conditions. Unfortunately, measurement in operating conditions may not be practical to obtain. Hence, the main purpose of this research is to create, through computations and simulations, links between the values of the loads, dimensions and functional requirements during the successive phases of the life cycle of some given product. [...

  3. The prediction of pseudo-resonance positions in the Schwinger variational principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherford, Charles A.; Tucker, Roy; Odom, Gregory

    1989-01-01

    The Schwinger Variational Principle is appled to s-wave electron-hydrogen atom scattering. It is shown computationally, that, consistent with a paper by B. Apagyi, P. Levay, and K. Ladanyi, there are pseudo-resonances at the static exchange level of approximation, but not at the static level. The T-matrix was employed, as well as, the K-matrix version of the Schwinger Principle, with a real Slater basis, and obtained the same results in both. The origin of the pseudo-resonances as resulting from singularities in the separable potential that is effectively employed in the Lippmann-Schwinger equation from which the Schwinger Variational Principle can be derived. The determination of the pseudo-resonance parameters from the separable potential is computationally inexpensive and may be used to predict the pseudo-resonance parameters for the scattering calculations so that they may be avoided.

  4. The prediction of pseudo-resonance positions in the Schwinger variational principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherford, Charles A.; Tucker, Roy; Odom, Gregory

    The Schwinger Variational Principle is appled to s-wave electron-hydrogen atom scattering. It is shown computationally, that, consistent with a paper by B. Apagyi, P. Levay, and K. Ladanyi, there are pseudo-resonances at the static exchange level of approximation, but not at the static level. The T-matrix was employed, as well as, the K-matrix version of the Schwinger Principle, with a real Slater basis, and obtained the same results in both. The origin of the pseudo-resonances as resulting from singularities in the separable potential that is effectively employed in the Lippmann-Schwinger equation from which the Schwinger Variational Principle can be derived. The determination of the pseudo-resonance parameters from the separable potential is computationally inexpensive and may be used to predict the pseudo-resonance parameters for the scattering calculations so that they may be avoided.

  5. Interplanetary Lyman $\\alpha$ line profiles: variations with solar activity cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Quemerais, E; Bertaux, J L; Koutroumpa, D; Clarke, J; Kyrola, E; Schmidt, W; Qu\\'emerais, Eric; Lallement, Rosine; Bertaux, Jean-Loup; Koutroumpa, Dimitra; Clarke, John; Kyrola, Erkki; Schmidt, Walter

    2006-01-01

    Interplanetary Lyman alpha line profiles are derived from the SWAN H cell data measurements. The measurements cover a 6-year period from solar minimum (1996) to after the solar maximum of 2001. This allows us to study the variations of the line profiles with solar activity. These line profiles were used to derive line shifts and line widths in the interplanetary medium for various angles of the LOS with the interstellar flow direction. The SWAN data results were then compared to an interplanetary background upwind spectrum obtained by STIS/HST in March 2001. We find that the LOS upwind velocity associated with the mean line shift of the IP \\lya line varies from 25.7 km/s to 21.4 km/s from solar minimum to solar maximum. Most of this change is linked with variations in the radiation pressure. LOS kinetic temperatures derived from IP line widths do not vary monotonically with the upwind angle of the LOS. This is not compatible with calculations of IP line profiles based on hot model distributions of interplanet...

  6. Variations in Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Northern East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xinmin; ZHAI Panmao; WANG Cuicui

    2009-01-01

    Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropical cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°-50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropical cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958-2001, but dccadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroclinic frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroclinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.

  7. The Light Curve Variations of The Active Binaries With Hot Subdwarf Component

    CERN Document Server

    Sipahi, E; Sipahi, Esin; Evren, Serdar

    2006-01-01

    We present the light curve variations of the two active binaries with hot subdwarf component. According to the brightness variations outside of the eclipses, the giant components of the systems are chromospherically active stars. The dark and cool active structures on this components cause the variations of the total light of the systems.

  8. Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2015-12-01

    Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted

  9. Predicting risk sensitivity in humans and lower animals: risk as variance or coefficient of variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U; Shafir, Sharoni; Blais, Ann-Renee

    2004-04-01

    This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk preference, the superiority of the CV over variance in predicting risk taking is not as strong. Two experiments show that people's risk sensitivity becomes strongly proportional to the CV when they learn about choice alternatives like other animals, by experiential sampling over time. Experience-based choices differ from choices when outcomes and probabilities are numerically described. Zipf's law as an ecological regularity and Weber's law as a psychological regularity may give rise to the CV as a measure of risk.

  10. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Rainfall in Northeastern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar M. Bibi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Northeastern Nigeria seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability of water for domestic use through surface and sub-surface recharge and agricultural production, which is mostly rain fed. Variability in rainfall over the last 60 years is the main cause for crop failure and water scarcity in the region, particularly, due to late onset of rainfall, short dry spells and multi-annual droughts. In this study, we analyze 27 years (1980–2006 of gridded daily rainfall data obtained from a merged dataset by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and Climate Research Unit reanalysis data (NCEP-CRU for spatial-temporal variability of monthly amounts and frequency in rainfall and rainfall trends. Temporal variability was assessed using the percentage coefficient of variation and temporal trends in rainfall were assessed using maps of linear regression slopes for the months of May through October. These six months cover the period of the onset and cessation of the wet season throughout the region. Monthly rainfall amount and frequency were then predicted over a 24-month period using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA Model. The predictions were evaluated using NCEP-CRU data for the same period. Kolmogorov Smirnov test results suggest that despite there are some months during the wet season (May–October when there is no significant agreement (p < 0.05 between the monthly distribution of the values of the model and the corresponding 24-month NCEP-CRU data, the model did better than simply replicating the long term mean of the data used for the prediction. Overall, the model does well in areas and months with lower temporal rainfall variability. Maps of the coefficient of variation and regression slopes are presented to indicate areas of high rainfall variability and water deficit over the period under study. The implications of these results for future policies on Agriculture and Water Management in the region are

  11. Predicting seasonal variations in coastal seabird habitats in the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virgili, A.; Lambert, C.; Pettex, E.; Dorémus, G.; Van Canneyt, O.; Ridoux, V.

    2017-07-01

    Seabirds, like all animals, have to live in suitable habitats to fulfil their energetic needs for both somatic and reproductive growth and maintenance. Apart from migration trips, all coastal seabirds are linked to the coast, because they need to return daily to land for resting or breeding. Their use of marine habitats strongly depends on their biology, but also on environmental conditions, and can be described using habitat models. This study aimed to: (1) identify the processes that mostly influence seabird distributions along the coasts of the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay; (2) determine seasonal variations of these processes, (3) provide prediction maps that describe the species distributions. We collected data of coastal seabird sightings from aerial surveys carried out in the English Channel and the eastern North Atlantic in the winter 2011-2012 and summer 2012. We classified seabirds into morphological groups and described their habitats using physiographic and oceanographic variables in Generalised Additive Models (GAMs). Finally, we produced maps of predicted distributions by season for each group. The distributions of coastal seabirds were essentially determined by the distance to the nearest coast, with a weaker influence of oceanographic variables. The nature of the substrate, sand or rock, combined with the timing of reproduction, also contributed to determine seasonal at-sea distributions for some species. The highest densities were predicted near the coast, particularly in bays and estuaries for strictly coastal species with possible variations depending on the season. From this study, we were able to predict the seasonal distribution of the studied species according to varying environmental parameters that changed over time, allowing us to understand better their behaviour and ecology.

  12. Bi-directional SIFT predicts a subset of activating mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, William; Zhang, Yan; Mukhyala, Kiran; Lazarus, Robert A; Zhang, Zemin

    2009-12-14

    Advancements in sequencing technologies have empowered recent efforts to identify polymorphisms and mutations on a global scale. The large number of variations and mutations found in these projects requires high-throughput tools to identify those that are most likely to have an impact on function. Numerous computational tools exist for predicting which mutations are likely to be functional, but none that specifically attempt to identify mutations that result in hyperactivation or gain-of-function. Here we present a modified version of the SIFT (Sorting Intolerant from Tolerant) algorithm that utilizes protein sequence alignments with homologous sequences to identify functional mutations based on evolutionary fitness. We show that this bi-directional SIFT (B-SIFT) is capable of identifying experimentally verified activating mutants from multiple datasets. B-SIFT analysis of large-scale cancer genotyping data identified potential activating mutations, some of which we have provided detailed structural evidence to support. B-SIFT could prove to be a valuable tool for efforts in protein engineering as well as in identification of functional mutations in cancer.

  13. Structural Variation within the Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Predict Memory for Impressions in Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brittany Shane Cassidy

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that lesions to regions involved in social and emotional cognition disrupt socioemotional processing and memory. We investigated how structural variation of regions involved in socioemotional memory (ventromedial prefrontal cortex [vmPFC], amygdala, as opposed to a region implicated in explicit memory (hippocampus, affected memory for impressions in young and older adults. Anatomical MRI scans for fifteen young and fifteen older adults were obtained and reconstructed to gather information about cortical thickness and subcortical volume. Young adults had greater amygdala and hippocampus volumes than old, and thicker left vmPFC than old, although right vmPFC thickness did not differ across the age groups. Participants formed behavior-based impressions and responded to interpersonally meaningful, social but interpersonally irrelevant, or non-social prompts, and completed a memory test. Results showed that greater left amygdala volume predicted enhanced overall memory for impressions in older but not younger adults. Increased right vmPFC thickness in older, but not younger, adults correlated with enhanced memory for impressions formed in the interpersonally meaningful context. Hippocampal volume was not predictive of social memory in young or older adults. These findings demonstrate the importance of structural variation in regions linked to socioemotional processing in the retention of impressions with age, and suggest that the amygdala and vmPFC play an integral role when encoding and retrieving social information.

  14. Predicting active site residue annotations in the Pfam database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Finn Robert D

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Approximately 5% of Pfam families are enzymatic, but only a small fraction of the sequences within these families ( Description We have created a large database of predicted active site residues. On comparing our active site predictions to those found in UniProtKB, Catalytic Site Atlas, PROSITE and MEROPS we find that we make many novel predictions. On investigating the small subset of predictions made by these databases that are not predicted by us, we found these sequences did not meet our strict criteria for prediction. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of our methodology and estimate that only 3% of our predicted sequences are false positives. Conclusion We have predicted 606110 active site residues, of which 94% are not found in UniProtKB, and have increased the active site annotations in Pfam by more than 200 fold. Although implemented for Pfam, the tool we have developed for transferring the data can be applied to any alignment with associated experimental active site data and is available for download. Our active site predictions are re-calculated at each Pfam release to ensure they are comprehensive and up to date. They provide one of the largest available databases of active site annotation.

  15. Spatial and temporal variations of thunderstorm activities over Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnadara, Upul

    2016-05-01

    Spatial and temporal variation of frequencies of thunderstorms over Sri Lanka using thunder day data is presented. A thunder day is simply a calendar day in which thunder is heard at least once at a given location. Two sets of data were collected and analyzed: annual totals for 10 climatological stations for a period of 50 years and monthly totals for 20 climatological stations for a period of 20 years. The average annual thunder days over Sri Lanka was found to be 76. Among the climatological stations considered, a high number of annual thunder days was recorded in Ratnapura (150 days/year), followed by Colombo (108 days/year) and Bandarawela (106 days/year). It appears that there are no widespread long-term increasing or decreasing trends in thunderstorm frequencies. However, Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka which has over two million people shows an increasing trend of 0.8 thunder days per year. Although there is a high variability between stations reporting the number of thunder days, the overall pattern within a year is clear. Thunderstorm frequencies are high during two periods: March-May and September-November, which coincide with the first inter-monsoon and second inter-monsoon periods. Compared to the dry zone, the wet zone, especially the southwestern region, has high thunderstorm activity. There is a clear spatial difference in thunderstorm activities during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. During both these seasons, enhanced thunderstorm activities are reported on the leeward side of the mountain range. A slight reduction in the thunderstorm activities was found in the high elevation areas of the hill country compared to the surrounding areas. A lightning ground flash density map derived using annual thunder days is also presented.

  16. Analysis of substructural variation in families of enzymatic proteins with applications to protein function prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fofanov Viacheslav Y

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural variations caused by a wide range of physico-chemical and biological sources directly influence the function of a protein. For enzymatic proteins, the structure and chemistry of the catalytic binding site residues can be loosely defined as a substructure of the protein. Comparative analysis of drug-receptor substructures across and within species has been used for lead evaluation. Substructure-level similarity between the binding sites of functionally similar proteins has also been used to identify instances of convergent evolution among proteins. In functionally homologous protein families, shared chemistry and geometry at catalytic sites provide a common, local point of comparison among proteins that may differ significantly at the sequence, fold, or domain topology levels. Results This paper describes two key results that can be used separately or in combination for protein function analysis. The Family-wise Analysis of SubStructural Templates (FASST method uses all-against-all substructure comparison to determine Substructural Clusters (SCs. SCs characterize the binding site substructural variation within a protein family. In this paper we focus on examples of automatically determined SCs that can be linked to phylogenetic distance between family members, segregation by conformation, and organization by homology among convergent protein lineages. The Motif Ensemble Statistical Hypothesis (MESH framework constructs a representative motif for each protein cluster among the SCs determined by FASST to build motif ensembles that are shown through a series of function prediction experiments to improve the function prediction power of existing motifs. Conclusions FASST contributes a critical feedback and assessment step to existing binding site substructure identification methods and can be used for the thorough investigation of structure-function relationships. The application of MESH allows for an automated

  17. Robust Active Suspension Design Subject to Vehicle Inertial Parameter Variations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hai-Ping Du; Nong Zhang

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an approach in designing a robust controller for vehicle suspensions considering changes in vehicle inertial properties. A four-degree-of-freedom half-car model with active suspension is studied in this paper, and three main performance requirements are considered. Among these requirements, the ride comfort performance is optimized by minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function from the road disturbance to the sprung mass acceleration, while the road holding performance and the suspension deflection limitation are guaranteed by constraining the generalized H2 (GH2) norms of the transfer functions from the road disturbance to the dynamic tyre load and the suspension deflection to be less than their hard limits, respectively. At the same time, the controller saturation problem is considered by constraining its peak response output to be less than a given limit using the GH2 norm as well. By solving the finite number of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) with the minimization optimization procedure, the controller gains, which are dependent on the time-varying inertial parameters, can be obtained. Numerical simulations on both frequency and bump responses show that the designed parameter-dependent controller can achieve better active suspension performance compared with the passive suspension in spite of the variations of inertial parameters.

  18. Spatial variation and prediction of forest biomass in a heterogeneous landscape

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    S.Lamsal; D.M.Rizzo; R.K.Meentemeyer

    2012-01-01

    Large areas assessments of forest biomass distribution are a challenge in heterogeneous landscapes,where variations in tree growth and species composition occur over short distances.In this study,we use statistical and geospatial modeling on densely sampled forest biomass data to analyze the relative importance of ecological and physiographic variables as determinants of spatial variation of forest biomass in the environmentally heterogeneous region of the Big Sur,California.We estimated biomass in 280 forest plots (one plot per 2.85 km2) and measured an array of ecological (vegetation community type,distance to edge,amount of surrounding non-forest vegetation,soil properties,fire history) and physiographic drivers (elevation,potential soil moisture and solar radiation,proximity to the coast) of tree growth at each plot location.Our geostatistical analyses revealed that biomass distribution is spatially structured and autocorrelated up to 3.1 km.Regression tree (RT) models showed that both physiographic and ecological factors influenced biomass distribution.Across randomly selected sample densities (sample size 112 to 280),ecological effects of vegetation community type and distance to forest edge,and physiographic effects of elevation,potentialsoil moisture and solar radiation were the most consistent predictors of biomass.Topographic moisture index and potential solar radiation had a positive effect on biomass,indicating the importance of topographicallymediated energy and moisture on plant growth and biomass accumulation.RT model explained 35% of the variation in biomass and spatially autocorrelated variation were retained in regession residuals.Regression kriging model,developed from RT combined with kriging of regression residuals,was used to map biomass across the Big Sur.This study demonstrates how statistical and geospatial modeling can be used to discriminate the relative importance of physiographic and ecologic effects on forest biomass and develop

  19. Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank

    2017-04-01

    Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

  20. The Built Environment Predicts Observed Physical Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl eKelly

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. In order to improve our understanding of the relationship between the built environment and physical activity, it is important to identify associations between specific geographic characteristics and physical activity behaviors.Purpose. Examine relationships between observed physical activity behavior and measures of the built environment collected on 291 street segments in Indianapolis and St. Louis. Methods. Street segments were selected using a stratifıed geographic sampling design to ensure representation of neighborhoods with different land use and socioeconomic characteristics. Characteristics of the built environment on street segments were audited using two methods: in-person field audits and audits based on interpretation of Google Street View imagery with each method blinded to results from the other. Segments were dichotomized as having a particular characteristic (e.g., sidewalk present or not based on the two auditing methods separately. Counts of individuals engaged in different forms of physical activity on each segment were assessed using direct observation. Non-parametric statistics were used to compare counts of physically active individuals on each segment with built environment characteristic. Results. Counts of individuals engaged in physical activity were significantly higher on segments with mixed land use or all non-residential land use, and on segments with pedestrian infrastructure (e.g., crosswalks, sidewalks and public transit. Conclusions. Several micro-level built environment characteristics are associated with physical activity. These data provide support for theories that suggest changing the built environment and related policies may encourage more physical activity.

  1. Prediction model for sequence variation in the glycoprotein gene of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus in California, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Garry O; Garabed, Rebecca; Branscum, Adam; Perez, Andres; Thurmond, Mark

    2007-12-13

    The influence of spatio-temporal factors on genetic variation of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is an active area of research. Using host-isolate pairs collected from 1966 to 2004 for 237 IHNV isolates from California and southern Oregon, we examined genetic variation of the mid-G gene of IHNV that could be quantified across times and geographic locations. Information hypothesized to influence genetic variation was environmental and/or fish host demographic factors, viz. location (inland or coastal), year of isolation, habitat (river, lake, or hatchery), the agent factors of subgroup (LI or LII) and serotype (1, 2, or 3), and the host factors of fish age (juvenile or adult), sex (male or female), and season of spawning run (spring, fall, late fall, winter). Inverse distance weighting (IDW) was performed to create isopleth maps of the genetic distances of each subgroup. IDW maps showed that more genetic divergence was predicted for isolates found inland (for both subgroups: LI and LII) than for coastal watershed isolates. A mixed-effect beta regression with a logit link function was used to seek associations between genetic distances and hypothesized explanatory factors. The model that best described genetic distance contained the factors of location, year of isolation, and the interaction between location and year. Our model suggests that genetic distance was greater for isolates collected from 1966 to 2004 at inland locations than for isolates found in coastal watersheds during the same years. The agreement between the IDW and beta regression analyses quantitatively supports our conclusion that, during this time period, more genetic variation existed within subgroup LII in inland watersheds than within coastal LI isolates.

  2. From field to region yield predictions in response to pedo-climatic variations in Eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    JÉGO, G.; Pattey, E.; Liu, J.

    2013-12-01

    The increase in global population coupled with new pressures to produce energy and bioproducts from agricultural land requires an increase in crop productivity. However, the influence of climate and soil variations on crop production and environmental performance is not fully understood and accounted for to define more sustainable and economical management strategies. Regional crop modeling can be a great tool for understanding the impact of climate variations on crop production, for planning grain handling and for assessing the impact of agriculture on the environment, but it is often limited by the availability of input data. The STICS ("Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard") crop model, developed by INRA (France) is a functional crop model which has a built-in module to optimize several input parameters by minimizing the difference between calculated and measured output variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI). STICS crop model was adapted to the short growing season of the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone using field experiments results, to predict biomass and yield of soybean, spring wheat and corn. To minimize the numbers of inference required for regional applications, 'generic' cultivars rather than specific ones have been calibrated in STICS. After the calibration of several model parameters, the root mean square error (RMSE) of yield and biomass predictions ranged from 10% to 30% for the three crops. A bit more scattering was obtained for LAI (20%prediction to climate variations. Using RS data to re-initialize input parameters that are not readily available (e.g. seeding date) is considered an effective way

  3. Line Impedance Estimation Using Active and Reactive Power Variations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timbus, Adrian Vasile; Rodriguez, Pedro; Teodorescu, Remus;

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an estimation method of power system impedance based on power variations caused by a distributed power generation system (DPGS) at the point of common coupling (PCC). The proposed algorithm is computationally simple and uses the voltage variations at the point of common coupling...... (PCC) caused by the variations of the power delivered to utility network to derive the value of grid impedance. Accurate estimation of both resistive and inductive part of the impedance is obtained, as the results presented show....

  4. Modelling air pollution for epidemiologic research--part II: predicting temporal variation through land use regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölter, A; Lindley, S; de Vocht, F; Simpson, A; Agius, R

    2010-12-01

    Over recent years land use regression (LUR) has become a frequently used method in air pollution exposure studies, as it can model intra-urban variation in pollutant concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, very few studies have used the LUR methodology to also model the temporal variation in air pollution exposure. The aim of this study is to estimate annual mean NO(2) and PM(10) concentrations from 1996 to 2008 for Greater Manchester using land use regression models. The results from these models will be used in the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS) birth cohort to determine health effects of air pollution exposure. The Greater Manchester LUR model for 2005 was recalibrated using interpolated and adjusted NO(2) and PM(10) concentrations as dependent variables for 1996-2008. In addition, temporally resolved variables were available for traffic intensity and PM(10) emissions. To validate the resulting LUR models, they were applied to the locations of automatic monitoring stations and the estimated concentrations were compared against measured concentrations. The 2005 LUR models were successfully recalibrated, providing individual models for each year from 1996 to 2008. When applied to the monitoring stations the mean prediction error (MPE) for NO(2) concentrations for all stations and years was -0.8μg/m³ and the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 6.7μg/m³. For PM(10) concentrations the MPE was 0.8μg/m³ and the RMSE was 3.4μg/m³. These results indicate that it is possible to model temporal variation in air pollution through LUR with relatively small prediction errors. It is likely that most previous LUR studies did not include temporal variation, because they were based on short term monitoring campaigns and did not have historic pollution data. The advantage of this study is that it uses data from an air dispersion model, which provided concentrations for 2005 and 2010, and therefore allowed extrapolation over a longer time period

  5. Prediction limits of mobile phone activity modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondor, Dániel; Grauwin, Sebastian; Kallus, Zsófia; Gódor, István; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Ratti, Carlo

    2017-02-01

    Thanks to their widespread usage, mobile devices have become one of the main sensors of human behaviour and digital traces left behind can be used as a proxy to study urban environments. Exploring the nature of the spatio-temporal patterns of mobile phone activity could thus be a crucial step towards understanding the full spectrum of human activities. Using 10 months of mobile phone records from Greater London resolved in both space and time, we investigate the regularity of human telecommunication activity on urban scales. We evaluate several options for decomposing activity timelines into typical and residual patterns, accounting for the strong periodic and seasonal components. We carry out our analysis on various spatial scales, showing that regularity increases as we look at aggregated activity in larger spatial units with more activity in them. We examine the statistical properties of the residuals and show that it can be explained by noise and specific outliers. Also, we look at sources of deviations from the general trends, which we find to be explainable based on knowledge of the city structure and places of attractions. We show examples how some of the outliers can be related to external factors such as specific social events.

  6. NAA and NAAG variation in neuronal activation during visual stimulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castellano, G.; Dias, C.S.B. [Grupo de Neurofísica, Departamento de Raios Cósmicos e Cronologia, Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil); Foerster, B. [Philips Medical Systems, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil); Li, L.M. [Departamento de Neurologia, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil); Covolan, R.J.M. [Grupo de Neurofísica, Departamento de Raios Cósmicos e Cronologia, Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Programa de Cooperação Interinstitucional de Apoio à Pesquisa sobre o Cérebro (CInAPCe), SP (Brazil)

    2012-08-17

    N-acetyl-aspartyl-glutamate (NAAG) and its hydrolysis product N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) are among the most important brain metabolites. NAA is a marker of neuron integrity and viability, while NAAG modulates glutamate release and may have a role in neuroprotection and synaptic plasticity. Investigating on a quantitative basis the role of these metabolites in brain metabolism in vivo by magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is a major challenge since the main signals of NAA and NAAG largely overlap. This is a preliminary study in which we evaluated NAA and NAAG changes during a visual stimulation experiment using functional MRS. The paradigm used consisted of a rest period (5 min and 20 s), followed by a stimulation period (10 min and 40 s) and another rest period (10 min and 40 s). MRS from 17 healthy subjects were acquired at 3T with TR/TE = 2000/288 ms. Spectra were averaged over subjects and quantified with LCModel. The main outcomes were that NAA concentration decreased by about 20% with the stimulus, while the concentration of NAAG concomitantly increased by about 200%. Such variations fall into models for the energy metabolism underlying neuronal activation that point to NAAG as being responsible for the hyperemic vascular response that causes the BOLD signal. They also agree with the fact that NAAG and NAA are present in the brain at a ratio of about 1:10, and with the fact that the only known metabolic pathway for NAAG synthesis is from NAA and glutamate.

  7. Variations of the temperature and solar activity in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MingQi Li; QuanSheng Ge; ZhiXin Hao; JingYun Zheng

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures from each climatic region have similar signatures, but there are differences among the five regions and the countrywide average. The results indicate that the periods of faster warming were not synchronous across the regions studied: warming in northeast China and Tibet began in 1986, while in central-east, southeast, and northwest China the warming emerged in 1995. Furthermore, central-east and northwest China, and Tibet, have warmed continuously since 2000, but the temper-ature has decreased during this period in southeast China. We evaluated the evolution of these temperature series using a novel nonlinear filtering technique based on the concept of the lifetime of temperature curves. The decadal to secular evolution of solar activity and temperature variation had similar signatures in the northeast, southeast, and northwest re-gions and the average across the whole country, indicating that solar activity is a significant control on climate change over secular time scales in these regions. In comparison with these regions, the signatures were different in central-east China and Tibet because of regional differences (e.g., landforms and elevation) and indirect effects (e.g., cloud cover influencing the radiation balance, thereby inducing climate change). Furthermore, the results of wavelet analysis indicated that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has had a significant impact on climate change, but at different times among the regions, and these changes were most probably induced by differing responses of the atmospheric system to solar forcing.

  8. Pulse pressure variation and prediction of fluid responsiveness in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clarice Daniele Alves de Oliveira-Costa

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine the utility of pulse pressure variation (ΔRESP PP in predicting fluid responsiveness in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (V T and to investigate whether a lower ΔRESP PP cut-off value should be used when patients are ventilated with low tidal volumes. METHOD: This cross-sectional observational study included 37 critically ill patients with acute circulatory failure who required fluid challenge. The patients were sedated and mechanically ventilated with a V T of 6-7 ml/kg ideal body weight, which was monitored with a pulmonary artery catheter and an arterial line. The mechanical ventilation and hemodynamic parameters, including ΔRESP PP, were measured before and after fluid challenge with 1,000 ml crystalloids or 500 ml colloids. Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in the cardiac index of at least 15%. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01569308. RESULTS: A total of 17 patients were classified as responders. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve (AUC showed that the optimal cut-off point for ΔRESP PP to predict fluid responsiveness was 10% (AUC = 0.74. Adjustment of the ΔRESP PP to account for driving pressure did not improve the accuracy (AUC = 0.76. A ΔRESP PP>10% was a better predictor of fluid responsiveness than central venous pressure (AUC = 0.57 or pulmonary wedge pressure (AUC = 051. Of the 37 patients, 25 were in septic shock. The AUC for ΔRESP PP>10% to predict responsiveness in patients with septic shock was 0.484 (sensitivity, 78%; specificity, 93%. CONCLUSION: The parameter D RESP PP has limited value in predicting fluid responsiveness in patients who are ventilated with low tidal volumes, but a ΔRESP PP>10% is a significant improvement over static parameters. A ΔRESP PP > 10% may be particularly useful for identifying responders in patients with septic shock.

  9. Predicting mining activity with parallel genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talaie, S.; Leigh, R.; Louis, S.J.; Raines, G.L.; Beyer, H.G.; O'Reilly, U.M.; Banzhaf, Arnold D.; Blum, W.; Bonabeau, C.; Cantu-Paz, E.W.; ,; ,

    2005-01-01

    We explore several different techniques in our quest to improve the overall model performance of a genetic algorithm calibrated probabilistic cellular automata. We use the Kappa statistic to measure correlation between ground truth data and data predicted by the model. Within the genetic algorithm, we introduce a new evaluation function sensitive to spatial correctness and we explore the idea of evolving different rule parameters for different subregions of the land. We reduce the time required to run a simulation from 6 hours to 10 minutes by parallelizing the code and employing a 10-node cluster. Our empirical results suggest that using the spatially sensitive evaluation function does indeed improve the performance of the model and our preliminary results also show that evolving different rule parameters for different regions tends to improve overall model performance. Copyright 2005 ACM.

  10. ALTERNATING PROJECTION BASED PREDICTION-CORRECTION METHODS FOR STRUCTURED VARIATIONAL INEQUALITIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bing-sheng He; Li-zhi Liao; Mai-jian Qian

    2006-01-01

    The monotone variational inequalities Ⅵ(Ω, F) have vast applications, including optimal controls and convex programming. In this paper we focus on the Ⅵ problems that have a particular splitting structure and in which the mapping F does not have an explicit form, therefore only its function values can be employed in the numerical methods for solving such problems. We study a set of numerical methods that are easily implementable.Each iteration of the proposed methods consists of two procedures. The first (prediction) procedure utilizes alternating projections to produce a predictor. The second (correction) procedure generates the new iterate via some minor computations. Convergence of the proposed methods is proved under mild conditions. Preliminary numerical experiments for some traffic equilibrium problems illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  11. MODIFIED REGRESSION APPROACH IN PREDICTION OF FINITE POPULATION MEAN USING KNOWN COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheela Misra

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper,we are utilizingthe modified regression approach for the prediction offinite population mean, with known coefficient of variation of study variabley, undersimplerandom sampling without replacement. The bias and mean square error of the proposed estimatorare obtained and compared with the usual regression estimator of the population mean and comesout to be more efficient in the sense of having lesser meansquare error. The optimum class ofestimators is obtained and for the greater practical utility proposed optimum estimator based onestimated optimum value of the characterizing scalar is also obtained and is shown to retain thesame efficiency to the first order of approximation as the former one. A numerical illustration isalso given to support the theoretical conclusions.

  12. Measuring Active Learning to Predict Course Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, John E.; Ku, Heng-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated whether active learning within computer-based training courses can be measured and whether it serves as a predictor of learner-perceived course quality. A major corporation participated in this research, providing access to internal employee training courses, training representatives, and historical course evaluation data.…

  13. Total variation regularization for fMRI-based prediction of behaviour

    CERN Document Server

    Michel, Vincent; Varoquaux, Gaël; Eger, Evelyn; Thirion, Bertrand

    2011-01-01

    While medical imaging typically provides massive amounts of data, the extraction of relevant information for predictive diagnosis remains a difficult challenge. Functional MRI (fMRI) data, that provide an indirect measure of task-related or spontaneous neuronal activity, are classically analyzed in a mass-univariate procedure yielding statistical parametric maps. This analysis framework disregards some important principles of brain organization: population coding, distributed and overlapping representations. Multivariate pattern analysis, i.e., the prediction of behavioural variables from brain activation patterns better captures this structure. To cope with the high dimensionality of the data, the learning method has to be regularized. However, the spatial structure of the image is not taken into account in standard regularization methods, so that the extracted features are often hard to interpret. More informative and interpretable results can be obtained with the l_1 norm of the image gradient, a.k.a. its ...

  14. Effects of disfluencies, predictability, and utterance position on word form variation in English conversation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Alan; Jurafsky, Daniel; Fosler-Lussier, Eric; Girand, Cynthia; Gregory, Michelle; Gildea, Daniel

    2003-02-01

    Function words, especially frequently occurring ones such as (the, that, and, and of ), vary widely in pronunciation. Understanding this variation is essential both for cognitive modeling of lexical production and for computer speech recognition and synthesis. This study investigates which factors affect the forms of function words, especially whether they have a fuller pronunciation (e.g., edh,eye, edh,æ,tee, æ,en,&dee, vee) or a more reduced or lenited pronunciation (e.g., edh,schwa, edh,bari;t, n, schwa). It is based on over 8000 occurrences of the ten most frequent English function words in a 4-h sample from conversations from the Switchboard corpus. Ordinary linear and logistic regression models were used to examine variation in the length of the words, in the form of their vowel (basic, full, or reduced), and whether final obstruents were present or not. For all these measures, after controlling for segmental context, rate of speech, and other important factors, there are strong independent effects that made high-frequency monosyllabic function words more likely to be longer or have a fuller form (1) when neighboring disfluencies (such as filled pauses uh and um) indicate that the speaker was encountering problems in planning the utterance; (2) when the word is unexpected, i.e., less predictable in context; (3) when the word is either utterance initial or utterance final. Looking at the phenomenon in a different way, frequent function words are more likely to be shorter and to have less-full forms in fluent speech, in predictable positions or multiword collocations, and utterance internally. Also considered are other factors such as sex (women are more likely to use fuller forms, even after controlling for rate of speech, for example), and some of the differences among the ten function words in their response to the factors.

  15. SimFlu: a simulation tool for predicting the variation pattern of influenza A virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Insung; Kim, Ha-Yeon; Jung, Sunghoon; Lee, Ji-Hae; Son, Hyeon Seok

    2014-09-01

    Since the first pandemic outbreak of avian influenza A virus (H5N1 subtype) in 1997, the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) has provided a large number of influenza virus sequences with well-organized annotations. Using the time-series sequences of influenza A viruses, we developed a simulation tool for influenza virus, named SimFlu, to predict possible future variants of influenza viruses. SimFlu can create variants from a seed nucleotide sequence of influenza A virus using the codon variation parameters included in the SimFlu package. The SimFlu library provides pre-calculated codon variation parameters for the H1N1, H3N2, and H5N1 subtypes of influenza A virus isolated from 2000 to 2011, allowing the users to simulate their own nucleotide sequences by selecting their preferred parameter options. SimFlu supports three operating systems - Windows, Linux, and Mac OS X. SimFlu is publicly available at http://lcbb.snu.ac.kr/simflu. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Variation in circulating testosterone during mating predicts reproductive success in a wild songbird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beate Apfelbeck

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Testosterone is an important sex hormone and mediates reproduction in male vertebrates. There is ample evidence that testosterone coordinates the expression of physiological, morphological and behavioural traits during reproduction and many of these traits are under sexual selection. However, only few studies so far have examined if individual variation in testosterone is correlated with reproductive success. Because socially monogamous bird species pass through different phases within a breeding cycle and each of these phases requires the expression of different behaviours, the relation between testosterone and reproductive success could vary with breeding stage. Here we investigate the link between reproductive success and testosterone in European stonechats – a socially monogamous songbird with biparental care. Previous studies found that territorial aggression in breeding stonechats depends on testosterone and that testosterone levels peak during the mating phase. Thus, high testosterone levels during mating may influence reproductive success by promoting territorial aggression and mate guarding. We found that males with two breeding attempts produced a similar number of fledglings as males with three breeding attempts. However, males with two breeding attempts expressed higher levels of testosterone than males with just one or those with three breeding attempts, regardless of whether testosterone was measured during the mating or the parental phase of the first brood. Furthermore, testosterone levels during mating, but not during parenting correlated with the total annual number of fledglings. Thus, individual variation in levels of plasma testosterone predicted reproductive success in stonechats.

  17. Conditional Variational Autoencoder for Prediction and Feature Recovery Applied to Intrusion Detection in IoT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Martin, Manuel; Carro, Belen; Sanchez-Esguevillas, Antonio; Lloret, Jaime

    2017-08-26

    The purpose of a Network Intrusion Detection System is to detect intrusive, malicious activities or policy violations in a host or host's network. In current networks, such systems are becoming more important as the number and variety of attacks increase along with the volume and sensitiveness of the information exchanged. This is of particular interest to Internet of Things networks, where an intrusion detection system will be critical as its economic importance continues to grow, making it the focus of future intrusion attacks. In this work, we propose a new network intrusion detection method that is appropriate for an Internet of Things network. The proposed method is based on a conditional variational autoencoder with a specific architecture that integrates the intrusion labels inside the decoder layers. The proposed method is less complex than other unsupervised methods based on a variational autoencoder and it provides better classification results than other familiar classifiers. More important, the method can perform feature reconstruction, that is, it is able to recover missing features from incomplete training datasets. We demonstrate that the reconstruction accuracy is very high, even for categorical features with a high number of distinct values. This work is unique in the network intrusion detection field, presenting the first application of a conditional variational autoencoder and providing the first algorithm to perform feature recovery.

  18. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke S.C. McCowan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival.

  19. Evaluating influences of seasonal variations and anthropogenic activities on alluvial groundwater hydrochemistry using ensemble learning approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kunwar P.; Gupta, Shikha; Mohan, Dinesh

    2014-04-01

    Chemical composition and hydrochemistry of groundwater is influenced by the seasonal variations and anthropogenic activities in a region. Understanding of such influences and responsible factors is vital for the effective management of groundwater. In this study, ensemble learning based classification and regression models are constructed and applied to the groundwater hydrochemistry data of Unnao and Ghaziabad regions of northern India. Accordingly, single decision tree (SDT), decision tree forest (DTF), and decision treeboost (DTB) models were constructed. Predictive and generalization abilities of the proposed models were investigated using several statistical parameters and compared with the support vector machines (SVM) method. The DT and SVM models discriminated the groundwater in shallow and deep aquifers, industrial and non-industrial areas, and pre- and post-monsoon seasons rendering misclassification rate (MR) between 1.52-14.92% (SDT); 0.91-6.52% (DTF); 0.61-5.27% (DTB), and 1.52-11.69% (SVM), respectively. The respective regression models yielded a correlation between measured and predicted values of COD and root mean squared error of 0.874, 0.66 (SDT); 0.952, 0.48 (DTF); 0.943, 0.52 (DTB); and 0.785, 0.85 (SVR) in complete data array of Ghaziabad. The DTF and DTB models outperformed the SVM both in classification and regression. It may be noted that incorporation of the bagging and stochastic gradient boosting algorithms in DTF and DTB models, respectively resulted in their enhanced predictive ability. The proposed ensemble models successfully delineated the influences of seasonal variations and anthropogenic activities on groundwater hydrochemistry and can be used as effective tools for forecasting the chemical composition of groundwater for its management.

  20. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and faulty outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeate...

  1. Predicting GM(1,N)Model for the Coefficient of Variation of Hectometer Yarn's Weight

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-feng

    2010-01-01

    The Coefficient of Variation(CV)of hectometer yarn's weight is one of the guidelines to evaluate its intrinsic quality.In the spinning manufacturing,the control of cotton yarn's weight unevenness is accomplished mainly in terms of a spot-check on semi-product and a succedent adjust in process parameters during spinning based on technicians'experience.However,it is theoretically believed among manufacturers that with fixed technical levels and parameters in the spinning process,the quality parameters of assorted cotton have a certain influence on the CV.In order to find out a rule of the influence that assorted cotton has on the CV,a GM(1,N)model,correlated raw cotton's quality parameter with the CV,has firstly been developed according to the modeling theory of grey system,and then been applied in the designing step to predict the CV.It has been approved by practical modeling and validation that the model could fit preferably an accrual CV value,and provide a method of quantitative predicting analysis for textile manufacturers to design cotton yarn's quality.

  2. Comparison of deterministic and stochastic methods to predict spatial variation of groundwater depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikary, Partha Pratim; Dash, Ch. Jyotiprava

    2014-11-01

    Accurate and reliable interpolation of groundwater depth over a region is a pre-requisite for efficient planning and management of water resources. The performance of two deterministic, such as inverse distance weighting (IDW) and radial basis function (RBF) and two stochastic, i.e., ordinary kriging (OK) and universal kriging (UK) interpolation methods was compared to predict spatio-temporal variation of groundwater depth. Pre- and post-monsoon groundwater level data for the year 2006 from 110 different locations over Delhi were used. Analyses revealed that OK and UK methods outperformed the IDW method, and UK performed better than OK. RBF also performed better than IDW and OK. IDW and RBF methods slightly underestimated and both the kriging methods slightly overestimated the prediction of water table depth. OK, RBF and UK yielded 27.52, 27.66 and 51.11 % lower RMSE, 27.49, 35.34 and 51.28 % lower MRE, and 14.21, 16.12 and 21.36 % higher R 2 over IDW. The isodepth-area curves indicated the possibility of exploitation of groundwater up to a depth of 20 m.

  3. Short-Term Variation of the Fetal Heart Rate for Predicting Neonatal Acidosis in Preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aernout, Eva Marie; Devos, Patrick; Deruelle, Philippe; Houfflin-Debarge, Véronique; Subtil, Damien

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the performance of short-term variation (STV) in predicting the onset of neonatal acidosis in fetuses at risk due to maternal preeclampsia. This retrospective study examined data from a series of 159 women with singleton pregnancies, hospitalized for preeclampsia in a level 3 reference maternity hospital in northern France, with an STV measurement in the 24 h preceding cesarean delivery and a measurement of the newborn's arterial cord pH at birth. The main outcome was determined by a correlation between STV and neonatal pH. The last computerized fetal heart rate analysis took place a mean of 7.9 ± 6.3 h before birth, and neonatal acidosis was diagnosed in 38 newborns (23.9%). Although STV and umbilical artery pH at birth were significantly correlated (x03C1; = 0.16, p acidosis was poor, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.63. The sensitivity reached only 50.0% and the specificity 71.9% at the best STV threshold for predicting acidosis. The performance of STV for screening for neonatal acidosis is poor in women with preeclampsia. The divergent results between studies are probably due to the variable intervals between STV measurement and birth. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. The Intolerance of Regulatory Sequence to Genetic Variation Predicts Gene Dosage Sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavé Petrovski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Noncoding sequence contains pathogenic mutations. Yet, compared with mutations in protein-coding sequence, pathogenic regulatory mutations are notoriously difficult to recognize. Most fundamentally, we are not yet adept at recognizing the sequence stretches in the human genome that are most important in regulating the expression of genes. For this reason, it is difficult to apply to the regulatory regions the same kinds of analytical paradigms that are being successfully applied to identify mutations among protein-coding regions that influence risk. To determine whether dosage sensitive genes have distinct patterns among their noncoding sequence, we present two primary approaches that focus solely on a gene's proximal noncoding regulatory sequence. The first approach is a regulatory sequence analogue of the recently introduced residual variation intolerance score (RVIS, termed noncoding RVIS, or ncRVIS. The ncRVIS compares observed and predicted levels of standing variation in the regulatory sequence of human genes. The second approach, termed ncGERP, reflects the phylogenetic conservation of a gene's regulatory sequence using GERP++. We assess how well these two approaches correlate with four gene lists that use different ways to identify genes known or likely to cause disease through changes in expression: 1 genes that are known to cause disease through haploinsufficiency, 2 genes curated as dosage sensitive in ClinGen's Genome Dosage Map, 3 genes judged likely to be under purifying selection for mutations that change expression levels because they are statistically depleted of loss-of-function variants in the general population, and 4 genes judged unlikely to cause disease based on the presence of copy number variants in the general population. We find that both noncoding scores are highly predictive of dosage sensitivity using any of these criteria. In a similar way to ncGERP, we assess two ensemble-based predictors of regional noncoding

  5. The Intolerance of Regulatory Sequence to Genetic Variation Predicts Gene Dosage Sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovski, Slavé; Gussow, Ayal B; Wang, Quanli; Halvorsen, Matt; Han, Yujun; Weir, William H; Allen, Andrew S; Goldstein, David B

    2015-09-01

    Noncoding sequence contains pathogenic mutations. Yet, compared with mutations in protein-coding sequence, pathogenic regulatory mutations are notoriously difficult to recognize. Most fundamentally, we are not yet adept at recognizing the sequence stretches in the human genome that are most important in regulating the expression of genes. For this reason, it is difficult to apply to the regulatory regions the same kinds of analytical paradigms that are being successfully applied to identify mutations among protein-coding regions that influence risk. To determine whether dosage sensitive genes have distinct patterns among their noncoding sequence, we present two primary approaches that focus solely on a gene's proximal noncoding regulatory sequence. The first approach is a regulatory sequence analogue of the recently introduced residual variation intolerance score (RVIS), termed noncoding RVIS, or ncRVIS. The ncRVIS compares observed and predicted levels of standing variation in the regulatory sequence of human genes. The second approach, termed ncGERP, reflects the phylogenetic conservation of a gene's regulatory sequence using GERP++. We assess how well these two approaches correlate with four gene lists that use different ways to identify genes known or likely to cause disease through changes in expression: 1) genes that are known to cause disease through haploinsufficiency, 2) genes curated as dosage sensitive in ClinGen's Genome Dosage Map, 3) genes judged likely to be under purifying selection for mutations that change expression levels because they are statistically depleted of loss-of-function variants in the general population, and 4) genes judged unlikely to cause disease based on the presence of copy number variants in the general population. We find that both noncoding scores are highly predictive of dosage sensitivity using any of these criteria. In a similar way to ncGERP, we assess two ensemble-based predictors of regional noncoding importance, nc

  6. Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany); Kühne, R. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Potemkin, V.A. [Department of Chemistry, South Ural State Medical University, Vorovskogo 64, 454048, Chelyabinsk (Russian Federation); Schüürmann, G. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany)

    2016-04-15

    The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K{sub ow}-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K{sub ow}-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water

  7. Prediction of ppm level electrical failure by using physical variation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Hsin-Ming; Kung, Ji-Fu; Hsu, Y.-B.; Yamazaki, Y.; Maruyama, Kotaro; Toyoshima, Yuya; Chen, Chu-en

    2016-03-01

    their spatial correlation distance. For local variations (LV) there is no correlation, whereas for global variations (GV) the correlation distance is very large [7]-[9]. This is the first time to certificate the validation of spatial distribution from the affordable bias contour big data fundamental infrastructures. And then apply statistical techniques to dig out the variation sources. The GV come from systematic issue, which could be compensated by adaptive LT condition or OPC correction. But LV comes from random issue, which being considered as intrinsic problem such as structure, material, tool capability… etc. In this paper studying, we can find out the advanced technology node SRAM contact CD local variation (LV) dominates in total variation, about 70%. It often plays significant in-line real time catching WP-DPMO role of the product yield loss, especially for wafer edge is the worst loss within wafer distribution and causes serious reliability concern. The major root cause of variations comes from the PR material induced burr defect (LV), the second one comes from GV enhanced wafer edge short opportunity, which being attributed to three factors, first one factor is wafer edge CD deliberated enlargement for yield improvement as shown in Fig. 10. Second factor is overlaps/AA shifts due to tool capability dealing with incoming wafer's war page issue and optical periphery layout dependent working pitch issue as shown in Fig. 9 (1)., the last factor comes from wafer edge burr enhanced by wafer edge larger Photo Resistance (PR) spin centrifugal force. After implementing KPIs such as GV related AA/CD indexes as shown in Fig. 9 (1) and 10, respectively, and LV related burr index as shown in Fig. 11., we can construct the parts per million (PPM) level short probability model via multi-variables regression, canonical correlation analysis and logistic transformation. The model provides prediction of PPM level electrical failure by using in-line real time physical

  8. Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation is associated with free-living activity energy expenditure in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranah, Gregory J; Lam, Ernest T; Katzman, Shana M; Nalls, Michael A; Zhao, Yiqiang; Evans, Daniel S; Yokoyama, Jennifer S; Pawlikowska, Ludmila; Kwok, Pui-Yan; Mooney, Sean; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Goodpaster, Bret H; Newman, Anne B; Harris, Tamara B; Manini, Todd M; Cummings, Steven R

    2012-09-01

    The decline in activity energy expenditure underlies a range of age-associated pathological conditions, neuromuscular and neurological impairments, disability, and mortality. The majority (90%) of the energy needs of the human body are met by mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS). OXPHOS is dependent on the coordinated expression and interaction of genes encoded in the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes. We examined the role of mitochondrial genomic variation in free-living activity energy expenditure (AEE) and physical activity levels (PAL) by sequencing the entire (~16.5 kilobases) mtDNA from 138 Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study participants. Among the common mtDNA variants, the hypervariable region 2 m.185G>A variant was significantly associated with AEE (p=0.001) and PAL (p=0.0005) after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Several unique nonsynonymous variants were identified in the extremes of AEE with some occurring at highly conserved sites predicted to affect protein structure and function. Of interest is the p.T194M, CytB substitution in the lower extreme of AEE occurring at a residue in the Qi site of complex III. Among participants with low activity levels, the burden of singleton variants was 30% higher across the entire mtDNA and OXPHOS complex I when compared to those having moderate to high activity levels. A significant pooled variant association across the hypervariable 2 region was observed for AEE and PAL. These results suggest that mtDNA variation is associated with free-living AEE in older persons and may generate new hypotheses by which specific mtDNA complexes, genes, and variants may contribute to the maintenance of activity levels in late life.

  9. Accounting for medical variation: the case of prescribing activity in a New Zealand general practice sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, P B; Yee, R L; Millar, J

    1994-08-01

    Medical practice variation is extensive and well documented, particularly for surgical interventions, and raises important questions for health policy. To date, however, little work has been carried out on interpractitioner variation in prescribing activity in the primary care setting. An analytical model of medical variation is derived from the literature and relevant indicators are identified from a study of New Zealand general practice. The data are based on nearly 9,500 completed patient encounter records drawn from over a hundred practitioners in the Waikato region of the North Island, New Zealand. The data set represents a 1% sample of all weekday general practice office encounters in the Hamilton Health District recorded over a 12-month period. Overall levels of prescribing, and the distribution of drug mentions across diagnostic groupings, are broadly comparable to results drawn from international benchmark data. A multivariate analysis is carried out on seven measures of activity in the areas of prescribing volume, script detail, and therapeutic choice. The analysis indicates that patient, practitioner and practice attributes exert little systematic influence on the prescribing task. The principal influences are diagnosis, followed by practitioner identity. The pattern of findings suggests also that the prescribing task cannot be viewed as an undifferentiated activity. It is more usefully considered as a process of decision-making in which 'core' judgements--such as the decision to prescribe and the choice of drug--are highly predictable and strongly influenced by diagnosis, while 'peripheral' features of the task--such as choosing a combination drug or prescribing generically--are less determinate and more subject to the exercise of clinical discretion.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  10. The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

    2014-12-01

    Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO

  11. Variations in genes regulating neuronal migration predict reduced prefrontal cognition in schizophrenia and bipolar subjects from mediterranean Spain: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabarés-Seisdedos, R; Escámez, T; Martínez-Giménez, J A; Balanzá, V; Salazar, J; Selva, G; Rubio, C; Vieta, E; Geijó-Barrientos, E; Martínez-Arán, A; Reiner, O; Martínez, S

    2006-01-01

    Both neural development and prefrontal cortex function are known to be abnormal in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. In order to test the hypothesis that these features may be related with genes that regulate neuronal migration, we analyzed two genomic regions: the lissencephaly critical region (chromosome 17p) encompassing the LIS1 gene and which is involved in human lissencephaly; and the genes related to the platelet-activating-factor, functionally related to LIS1, in 52 schizophrenic patients, 36 bipolar I patients and 65 normal control subjects. In addition, all patients and the 25 control subjects completed a neuropsychological battery. Thirteen (14.8%) patients showed genetic variations in either two markers related with lissencephaly or in the platelet-activating-factor receptor gene. These patients performed significantly worse in the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-Perseverative Errors in comparison with patients with no lissencephaly critical region/platelet-activating-factor receptor variations. The presence of lissencephaly critical region/platelet-activating-factor receptor variations was parametrically related to perseverative errors, and this accounted for 17% of the variance (P = 0.0001). Finally, logistic regression showed that poor Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-Perseverative Errors performance was the only predictor of belonging to the positive lissencephaly critical region/platelet-activating-factor receptor group. These preliminary findings suggest that the variations in genes involved in neuronal migration predict the severity of the prefrontal cognitive deficits in both disorders.

  12. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

    2015-10-01

    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  13. Pre-seismic variations of atmospheric radon activity as a possible reason for abnormal atmospheric effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim V. Surkov

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Possible atmospheric effects associated with pre-seismic variations of atmospheric radon concentration occasionally observed prior to earthquake occurrence are subjected to theoretical study in order to assess their potential effectiveness. Altitude distribution of atmospheric conductivity is examined as a function of radon and aerosol concentrations. Horizontal components of atmospheric electric fields and currents, which can arise near a boundary of seismo-active region, are estimated. We speculated that changes in radon-induced air ionization can have an impact on fair-weather spectra of ULF electric pulsations. Particular emphasis has been placed on hypothesis for correlation between variations of pre-seismic radon activity and upward thermal radiation measured by satellite over the high seismicity regions. This hypothesis is based on assumption that the radon-induced ionization of atmospheric surface layer can trigger water vapor condensation which in turn results in release of the vaporization heat. Our analysis has shown that the upward thermal flux has to be many orders of magnitude lower than that predicted on the basis of this hypothesis.

  14. Carotenoids in Rhodoplanes species: variation of compositions and substrate specificity of predicted carotenogenesis enzymes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaichi, Shinichi; Sasikala, Ch; Ramana, Ch V; Okamura, Keiko; Hiraishi, Akira

    2012-08-01

    Phototrophic bacteria necessarily contain carotenoids for photosynthesis, and accumulate unusual carotenoids in some cases. The carotenoids in all established species of Rhodoplanes (Rpl.), a representative of phototrophic genera, were identified using spectroscopic methods. The major carotenoid was spirilloxanthin in Rpl. roseus and Rpl. serenus, and rhodopin in "Rpl. cryptolactis". Rpl. elegans contained rhodopin, anhydrorhodovibrin, and spirilloxanthin. Rpl. pokkaliisoli contained not only rhodopin but also 1,1'-dihydroxylycopene and 3,4,3',4'-tetrahydrospirilloxanthin. These variations in carotenoid composition suggested that Rpl. roseus and Rpl. serenus had normal substrate specificity of the carotenogenesis enzymes of CrtC (acyclic carotene 1,2-hydratase), CrtD (acyclic carotenoid 3,4-desaturase), and CrtF (acyclic 1-hydroxycarotenoid methyltransferase). On the other hand, CrtC of Rpl. elegans, CrtD of "Rpl. cryptolactis", and CrtC, CrtD, and CrtF of Rpl. pokkaliisoli might have different characteristics from the usual activity of these normal enzymes in the normal spirilloxanthin pathway. These results suggest that the variation of carotenoids among the species of Rhodoplanes results from modified substrate specificity of the carotenogenesis enzymes involved.

  15. Analysis of longitudinal variations in North Pacific alkalinity to improve predictive algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, Claudia H.; Tyrrell, Toby; Achterberg, Eric P.

    2016-10-01

    The causes of natural variation in alkalinity in the North Pacific surface ocean need to be investigated to understand the carbon cycle and to improve predictive algorithms. We used GLODAPv2 to test hypotheses on the causes of three longitudinal phenomena in Alk*, a tracer of calcium carbonate cycling. These phenomena are (a) an increase from east to west between 45°N and 55°N, (b) an increase from west to east between 25°N and 40°N, and (c) a minor increase from west to east in the equatorial upwelling region. Between 45°N and 55°N, Alk* is higher on the western than on the eastern side, and this is associated with denser isopycnals with higher Alk* lying at shallower depths. Between 25°N and 40°N, upwelling along the North American continental shelf causes higher Alk* in the east. Along the equator, a strong east-west trend was not observed, even though the upwelling on the eastern side of the basin is more intense, because the water brought to the surface is not high in Alk*. We created two algorithms to predict alkalinity, one for the entire Pacific Ocean north of 30°S and one for the eastern margin. The Pacific Ocean algorithm is more accurate than the commonly used algorithm published by Lee et al. (2006), of similar accuracy to the best previously published algorithm by Sasse et al. (2013), and is less biased with longitude than other algorithms in the subpolar North Pacific. Our eastern margin algorithm is more accurate than previously published algorithms.

  16. Predicting Physical Activity in Arab American School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Shen, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Theoretically grounded research on the determinants of Arab American children's physical activity is virtually nonexistent. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to evaluate the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theory (SCT) to predict Arab American children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).…

  17. Predicting Physical Activity in Arab American School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Shen, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Theoretically grounded research on the determinants of Arab American children's physical activity is virtually nonexistent. Thus, the purpose of our investigation was to evaluate the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theory (SCT) to predict Arab American children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA).…

  18. Predictive Duty Cycle Control of Three-Phase Active-Front-End Rectifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Zhanfeng; Tian, Yanjun; Chen, Wei;

    2016-01-01

    of optimal duty cycles is made by predicting the effect of duty cycles on instantaneous current variations and minimizing the cost function. Due to the adoption of behavior prediction, the proposed controller inherits the excellent dynamic characteristics of predictive controllers. Moreover, the application......This paper proposed an on-line optimizing duty cycle control approach for three-phase active-front-end rectifiers, aiming to obtain the optimal control actions under different operating conditions. Similar to finite control set model predictive control strategy, a cost function previously...... of optimal duty cycles determined by cost function minimization automatically ensures optimum operations of converters within each sampling period. Improved transient and steady-state features of the proposed strategy are confirmed by experimental validations and in-depth comparisons with linear controllers...

  19. Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

    OpenAIRE

    McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled...

  20. Variational assimilation of land surface temperature observations for enhanced river flow predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercolani, Giulia; Castelli, Fabio

    2016-04-01

    Data assimilation (DA) has the potential of improving hydrologic forecasts. However, many issues arise in case it is employed for spatially distributed hydrologic models that describes processes in various compartments: large dimensionality of the inverse problem, layers governed by different equations, non-linear and discontinuous model structure, complex topology of domains such as surface drainage and river network.On the other hand, integrated models offer the possibility of improving prediction of specific states by exploiting observations of quantities belonging to other compartments. In terms of forecasting river discharges, and hence for their enhancement, soil moisture is a key variable, since it determines the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and surface runoff. However, soil moisture measurements are affected by issues that could prevent a successful DA and an actual improvement of discharge predictions.In-situ measurements suffer a dramatic spatial scarcity, while observations from satellite are barely accurate and provide spatial information only at a very coarse scale (around 40 km).Hydrologic models that explicitly represent land surface processes of coupled water and energy balance provide a valid alternative to direct DA of soil moisture.They gives the possibility of inferring soil moisture states through DA of remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST), whose measurements are more accurate and with a higher spatial resolution in respect to those of soil moisture. In this work we present the assimilation of LST data in a hydrologic model (Mobidic) that is part of the operational forecasting chain for the Arno river, central Italy, with the aim of improving flood predictions. Mobidic is a raster based, continuous in time and distributed in space hydrologic model, with coupled mass and energy balance at the surface and coupled groundwater and surface hydrology. The variational approach is adopted for DA, since it requires less

  1. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxia Wang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Ischemic heart disease (IHD is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admissions from 2003 to 2012 utilizing spatial statistics, spatial analysis, and space-time scan statistics. The spatial statistics and spatial analysis measured the incidence rate (hospital admissions per 1,000 residents and the standardized rate (the observed cases standardized by the expected cases of IHD at the district level to determine the spatio-temporal distribution and identify patterns of change. The space-time scan statistics was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of IHD hospital admissions at the district level. The other objective of this study was to forecast the IHD hospital admissions over the next three years (2013–2015 to predict the IHD incidence rates and the varying burdens of IHD-related medical services among the districts in Shenzhen. The results show that the highest hospital admissions, incidence rates, and standardized rates of IHD are in Futian. From 2003 to 2012, the IHD hospital admissions exhibited similar mean centers and directional distributions, with a slight increase in admissions toward the north in accordance with the movement of the total population. The incidence rates of IHD exhibited a gradual increase from 2003 to 2012 for all districts in Shenzhen, which may be the result of the rapid development of the economy and the increasing traffic pollution. In addition, some neighboring areas exhibited similar temporal change patterns, which were also detected by the spatio-temporal cluster analysis. Futian and Dapeng would have the highest and the lowest hospital admissions, respectively, although these districts have the highest incidence rates among all of the districts from 2013 to 2015 based on the prediction

  2. Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

  3. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yanxia; Du, Qingyun; Ren, Fu; Liang, Shi; Lin, De-nan; Tian, Qin; Chen, Yan; Li, Jia-jia

    2014-01-01

    Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admissions from 2003 to 2012 utilizing spatial statistics, spatial analysis, and space-time scan statistics. The spatial statistics and spatial analysis measured the incidence rate (hospital admissions per 1,000 residents) and the standardized rate (the observed cases standardized by the expected cases) of IHD at the district level to determine the spatio-temporal distribution and identify patterns of change. The space-time scan statistics was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of IHD hospital admissions at the district level. The other objective of this study was to forecast the IHD hospital admissions over the next three years (2013–2015) to predict the IHD incidence rates and the varying burdens of IHD-related medical services among the districts in Shenzhen. The results show that the highest hospital admissions, incidence rates, and standardized rates of IHD are in Futian. From 2003 to 2012, the IHD hospital admissions exhibited similar mean centers and directional distributions, with a slight increase in admissions toward the north in accordance with the movement of the total population. The incidence rates of IHD exhibited a gradual increase from 2003 to 2012 for all districts in Shenzhen, which may be the result of the rapid development of the economy and the increasing traffic pollution. In addition, some neighboring areas exhibited similar temporal change patterns, which were also detected by the spatio-temporal cluster analysis. Futian and Dapeng would have the highest and the lowest hospital admissions, respectively, although these districts have the highest incidence rates among all of the districts from 2013 to 2015 based on the prediction using the GM (1

  4. Circadian Rhythms of Locomotor Activity in Captive Birds and Mammals : Their Variations with Season and Latitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daan, Serge; Aschoff, Jürgen

    1975-01-01

    1. The seasonal variations in time of daily onset and end of locomotor activity are described for 3 species of mammals and 5 species of birds kept in captivity at the arctic circle and at lower latitude. These variations are most pronounced at high latitude. 2. The duration of daily activity plotted

  5. Does the ring species concept predict vocal variation in the crimson rosella, Platycercus elegans, complex?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ribot, Raoul F. H.; Berg, Mathew L.; Buchanan, Katherine L.; Komdeur, Jan; Joseph, Leo; Bennett, Andrew T. D.

    2009-01-01

    Vocal variation may be important in population divergence. We studied geographical variation in contact calls of parrots of the crimson rosella, Platycercus elegans, complex, which is characterized by striking geographical plumage coloration variation. This complex has long been considered a rare ex

  6. Features and prospects of juridical predicting of entrepreneurial activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya V. Rubtsova

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify characteristics and prospects of predicting the business activity. Methods historical sociological logical systematicstructural formallegal comparativelegal legal modeling method. Results in article suggests the legal definition of prediction of business activity as a scientific and practical study aimed at the determination of the future state and prospects of development of business activity consisting of the evaluation of legal regulation and analysis of the prospectsof further socioeconomic development which aims to select the optimal solution for the further development of entrepreneurship through legal regulators. The work proves the necessity of achieving a balanced legal regulation of social relations by changing the legislation in the field of business agreements investment and innovation. Scientific novelty the article for the first time formulates the concept characteristics and features of legal prediction of business activity substantiates the impact of predicting on the development of legal regulation of social relations. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in research and teaching while considering the issues of predicting both the socioeconomic processes in general and business activity in particular.

  7. Prediction of PKCθ Inhibitory Activity Using the Random Forest Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuwei Zhang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to the prediction of a series of 208 structurally diverse PKCθ inhibitors using the Random Forest (RF based on the Mold2 molecular descriptors. The RF model was established and identified as a robust predictor of the experimental pIC50 values, producing good external R2pred of 0.72, a standard error of prediction (SEP of 0.45, for an external prediction set of 51 inhibitors which were not used in the development of QSAR models. By using the RF built-in measure of the relative importance of the descriptors, an important predictor—the number of group donor atoms for H-bonds (with N and O―has been identified to play a crucial role in PKCθ inhibitory activity. We hope that the developed RF model will be helpful in the screening and prediction of novel unknown PKCθ inhibitory activity.

  8. External validation and prediction employing the predictive squared correlation coefficient test set activity mean vs training set activity mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüürmann, Gerrit; Ebert, Ralf-Uwe; Chen, Jingwen; Wang, Bin; Kühne, Ralph

    2008-11-01

    The external prediction capability of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models is often quantified using the predictive squared correlation coefficient, q (2). This index relates the predictive residual sum of squares, PRESS, to the activity sum of squares, SS, without postprocessing of the model output, the latter of which is automatically done when calculating the conventional squared correlation coefficient, r (2). According to the current OECD guidelines, q (2) for external validation should be calculated with SS referring to the training set activity mean. Our present findings including a mathematical proof demonstrate that this approach yields a systematic overestimation of the prediction capability that is triggered by the difference between the training and test set activity means. Example calculations with three regression models and data sets taken from literature show further that for external test sets, q (2) based on the training set activity mean may become even larger than r (2). As a consequence, we suggest to always use the test set activity mean when quantifying the external prediction capability through q (2) and to revise the respective OECD guidance document accordingly. The discussion includes a comparison between r (2) and q (2) value ranges and the q (2) statistics for cross-validation.

  9. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh;

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and faulty...... outputs constrained by tolerable performance requirements. As in standard model predictive control, the first element of the optimal input is applied to the system and the whole procedure is repeated until the fault is detected by a passive diagnoser. It is demonstrated how the generated excitation signal...

  10. Stroke volume variation does not predict fluid responsiveness in patients with septic shock on pressure support ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perner, A; Faber, T

    2006-01-01

    Stroke volume variation (SVV)--as measured by the pulse contour cardiac output (PiCCO) system--predicts the cardiac output response to a fluid challenge in patients on controlled ventilation. Whether this applies to patients on pressure support ventilation is unknown....

  11. Using the amplitude variation of a reverberation chamber channel to predict the synchronization of a wireless digital communication test system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tanuhardja, Ray R.; Gonzalez, Luis A.; Wang, Chih-Ming; Young, William F.; Remley, Kate A.; Ladbury, John M.

    2015-01-01

    We discuss the use of a metric based on the amplitude variation of a channel in the signal bandwidth to predict whether or not a digital wireless communication test system receiver will be able to demodulate a test signal. This metric is compared to another method consisting of the correlation calcu

  12. Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted…

  13. PASS-GP: Predictive active set selection for Gaussian processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2010-01-01

    to the active set selection strategy and marginal likelihood optimization on the active set. We make extensive tests on the USPS and MNIST digit classification databases with and without incorporating invariances, demonstrating that we can get state-of-the-art results (e.g.0.86% error on MNIST) with reasonable......We propose a new approximation method for Gaussian process (GP) learning for large data sets that combines inline active set selection with hyperparameter optimization. The predictive probability of the label is used for ranking the data points. We use the leave-one-out predictive probability...... available in GPs to make a common ranking for both active and inactive points, allowing points to be removed again from the active set. This is important for keeping the complexity down and at the same time focusing on points close to the decision boundary. We lend both theoretical and empirical support...

  14. How well do cognitive and environmental variables predict active commuting?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godin Gaston

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, there has been growing interest in theoretical studies integrating cognitions and environmental variables in the prediction of behaviour related to the obesity epidemic. This is the approach adopted in the present study in reference to the theory of planned behaviour. More precisely, the aim of this study was to determine the contribution of cognitive and environmental variables in the prediction of active commuting to get to and from work or school. Methods A prospective study was carried out with 130 undergraduate and graduate students (93 females; 37 males. Environmental, cognitive and socio-demographic variables were evaluated at baseline by questionnaire. Two weeks later, active commuting (walking/bicycling to get to and from work or school was self-reported by questionnaire. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to predict intention and behaviour. Results The model predicting behaviour based on cognitive variables explained more variance than the model based on environmental variables (37.4% versus 26.8%; Z = 3.86, p p p Conclusion The results showed that cognitive variables play a more important role than environmental variables in predicting and explaining active commuting. When environmental variables were significant, they were mediated by cognitive variables. Therefore, individual cognitions should remain one of the main focuses of interventions promoting active commuting among undergraduate and graduate students.

  15. A neural network model for olfactory glomerular activity prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Zu; Tsuji, Toshio; Takiguchi, Noboru; Ohtake, Hisao

    2012-12-01

    Recently, the importance of odors and methods for their evaluation have seen increased emphasis, especially in the fragrance and food industries. Although odors can be characterized by their odorant components, their chemical information cannot be directly related to the flavors we perceive. Biological research has revealed that neuronal activity related to glomeruli (which form part of the olfactory system) is closely connected to odor qualities. Here we report on a neural network model of the olfactory system that can predict glomerular activity from odorant molecule structures. We also report on the learning and prediction ability of the proposed model.

  16. Variability of single trial brain activation predicts fluctuations in reaction time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Stephan; Banaschewski, Tobias; Roessner, Veit; Klein, Christoph; Rietschel, Marcella; Feige, Bernd; Brandeis, Daniel; Laucht, Manfred

    2015-03-01

    Brain activation stability is crucial to understanding attention lapses. EEG methods could provide excellent markers to assess neuronal response variability with respect to temporal (intertrial coherence) and spatial variability (topographic consistency) as well as variations in activation intensity (low frequency variability of single trial global field power). We calculated intertrial coherence, topographic consistency and low frequency amplitude variability during target P300 in a continuous performance test in 263 15-year-olds from a cohort with psychosocial and biological risk factors. Topographic consistency and low frequency amplitude variability predicted reaction time fluctuations (RTSD) in a linear model. Higher RTSD was only associated with higher psychosocial adversity in the presence of the homozygous 6R-10R dopamine transporter haplotype. We propose that topographic variability of single trial P300 reflects noise as well as variability in evoked cortical activation patterns. Dopaminergic neuromodulation interacted with environmental and biological risk factors to predict behavioural reaction time variability.

  17. Territory Quality and Plumage Morph Predict Offspring Sex Ratio Variation in a Raptor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakarov, Nayden; Pauli, Martina; Mueller, Anna-Katharina; Potiek, Astrid; Grünkorn, Thomas; Dijkstra, Cor; Krüger, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    Parents may adapt their offspring sex ratio in response to their own phenotype and environmental conditions. The most significant causes for adaptive sex-ratio variation might express themselves as different distributions of fitness components between sexes along a given variable. Several causes for differential sex allocation in raptors with reversed sexual size dimorphism have been suggested. We search for correlates of fledgling sex in an extensive dataset on common buzzards Buteo buteo, a long-lived bird of prey. Larger female offspring could be more resource-demanding and starvation-prone and thus the costly sex. Prominent factors such as brood size and laying date did not predict nestling sex. Nonetheless, lifetime sex ratio (LSR, potentially indicative of individual sex allocation constraints) and overall nestling sex were explained by territory quality with more females being produced in better territories. Additionally, parental plumage morphs and the interaction of morph and prey abundance tended to explain LSR and nestling sex, indicating local adaptation of sex allocation However, in a limited census of nestling mortality, not females but males tended to die more frequently in prey-rich years. Also, although females could have potentially longer reproductive careers, a subset of our data encompassing full individual life histories showed that longevity and lifetime reproductive success were similarly distributed between the sexes. Thus, a basis for adaptive sex allocation in this population remains elusive. Overall, in common buzzards most major determinants of reproductive success appeared to have no effect on sex ratio but sex allocation may be adapted to local conditions in morph-specific patterns.

  18. Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

  19. Physical Activity Predicts Performance in an Unpracticed Bimanual Coordination Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisgontier, Matthieu P.; Serbruyns, Leen; Swinnen, Stephan P.

    2017-01-01

    Practice of a given physical activity is known to improve the motor skills related to this activity. However, whether unrelated skills are also improved is still unclear. To test the impact of physical activity on an unpracticed motor task, 26 young adults completed the international physical activity questionnaire and performed a bimanual coordination task they had never practiced before. Results showed that higher total physical activity predicted higher performance in the bimanual task, controlling for multiple factors such as age, physical inactivity, music practice, and computer games practice. Linear mixed models allowed this effect of physical activity to be generalized to a large population of bimanual coordination conditions. This finding runs counter to the notion that generalized motor abilities do not exist and supports the existence of a “learning to learn” skill that could be improved through physical activity and that impacts performance in tasks that are not necessarily related to the practiced activity. PMID:28265253

  20. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  1. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  2. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangkun Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  3. Pulse-pressure variation predicts fluid responsiveness during heart displacement for off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jong-Hwan; Jeon, Yunseok; Bahk, Jae-Hyon; Gil, Nam-Su; Kim, Ki-Bong; Hong, Deok Man; Kim, Hyun Joo

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of pulse-pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness during heart displacement for off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery using receiver operating characteristic analysis. A prospective study. A clinical study in a single cardiac anesthesia institution. Thirty-five patients undergoing elective off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery. Central venous pressure, pulmonary arterial occlusion pressure, pulse-pressure variation, and cardiac index were measured 5 minutes after revascularization of the left anterior descending coronary artery and before heart displacement. Immediately after heart displacement for revascularization of the left circumflex artery, and 10 minutes after fluid loading with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (10 mL/kg) during heart displacement, the measurements were repeated. Patients whose cardiac indices increased by ≥15% from fluid loading were defined as responders. After heart displacement, only pulse-pressure variation showed significant difference between the responders and nonresponders (13.48 ± 6.42 v 7.33 ± 3.81, respectively; p fluid responsiveness (area under the curve = 0.839, p = 0.0001). Pulse-pressure variation >7.69% identified the responders, with a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 83%. Pulse-pressure variation successfully predicted fluid responsiveness and would be useful in guiding fluid management during heart displacement for off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Functional and catalytic active sites prediction and docking analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bioinformatics

    2015-07-01

    Jul 1, 2015 ... industrially important azo dyes such as the molecular weight, molecular ... et al., 2010). The software possesses structure-based method to predict active sites in proteins based on a Difference of Gaussian (DoG) approach ...

  5. Predicting activities after stroke : what is clinically relevant?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakkel, G.; Kollen, B. J.

    Knowledge about factors that determine the final outcome after stroke is important for early stroke management, rehabilitation goals, and discharge planning. This narrative review provides an overview of current knowledge about the prediction of activities after stroke. We reviewed the pattern of

  6. Predicting Variation of Folk Songs: A Corpus Analysis Study on the Memorability of Melodies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, B.; Burgoyne, J.A.; Honing, H.

    We present a hypothesis-driven study on the variation of melody phrases in a collection of Dutch folk songs. We investigate the variation of phrases within the folk songs through a pattern matching method which detects occurrences of these phrases within folk song variants, and ask the question: do

  7. Enzyme butilcholinesterase activity variation in hormonal contraception users

    OpenAIRE

    Vásquez, Llermén; Dirección Regional de Salud - Puno, EsSALUD, Puno, Perú; Osorio, Jorge; Complejo Hospitalario Clínica San Pablo, Lima, Perú

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate enzyme butilcholinesterase activity in women using two hormonal contraceptives, norgestrel ethinylestradiol and medroxyprogesterone acetate, using alkaline phosphatase as indirect liver marker. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Women attending family planning program at El Agustino "7 de Octubre" health center, continuing users of hormonal contraception for over six months. Fasting blood was obtained and enzymatic activity was measured in serum. RESULTS: Users of both contraceptive...

  8. Prediction of daytime variations of HO2 radical concentrations in the marine boundary layer using BP network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    A Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) was established to predict the daytime variations of HO 2 radical concentration observed in the field campaign RISFEX 2003 (RIShiri Fall Experiment 2003) conducted in September 2003 at Rishiri Island (45.07 N,141.12 E,and 35m asl) in the Sea of Japan.The initial weight matrices and bias vectors for the network were optimized by a bee evolutionary genetic algorithm (BEGA).It was found that the input variables sensitive to HO 2 variation were photolysis frequency of O 3 to O(1 D) (J(O 1 D)),a composite parameter defined as the ratio of HC to NO x reactivity towards OH radicals (Φ),and the total aerosol surface area (A).The predicted results are closely correlated with the experimental data with the coefficient of determination (R2) close to 1.In addition,the means and ranges of the predicted HO 2 concentration agree with the observed data with the correlation coefficient (R),the index of agreement (IA) and the fractional bias (FB) in the range of 0.84-0.93,0.88-0.95 and 14%-7%,respectively.This study demonstrates that BPNN is a potential tool to predict the daytime variations of HO 2 radical concentrations in the marine boundary layer (MBL).

  9. Predicting human brain activity associated with the meanings of nouns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Tom M; Shinkareva, Svetlana V; Carlson, Andrew; Chang, Kai-Min; Malave, Vicente L; Mason, Robert A; Just, Marcel Adam

    2008-05-30

    The question of how the human brain represents conceptual knowledge has been debated in many scientific fields. Brain imaging studies have shown that different spatial patterns of neural activation are associated with thinking about different semantic categories of pictures and words (for example, tools, buildings, and animals). We present a computational model that predicts the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) neural activation associated with words for which fMRI data are not yet available. This model is trained with a combination of data from a trillion-word text corpus and observed fMRI data associated with viewing several dozen concrete nouns. Once trained, the model predicts fMRI activation for thousands of other concrete nouns in the text corpus, with highly significant accuracies over the 60 nouns for which we currently have fMRI data.

  10. Mathematical models for predicting indoor air quality from smoking activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, W R

    1999-05-01

    Much progress has been made over four decades in developing, testing, and evaluating the performance of mathematical models for predicting pollutant concentrations from smoking in indoor settings. Although largely overlooked by the regulatory community, these models provide regulators and risk assessors with practical tools for quantitatively estimating the exposure level that people receive indoors for a given level of smoking activity. This article reviews the development of the mass balance model and its application to predicting indoor pollutant concentrations from cigarette smoke and derives the time-averaged version of the model from the basic laws of conservation of mass. A simple table is provided of computed respirable particulate concentrations for any indoor location for which the active smoking count, volume, and concentration decay rate (deposition rate combined with air exchange rate) are known. Using the indoor ventilatory air exchange rate causes slightly higher indoor concentrations and therefore errs on the side of protecting health, since it excludes particle deposition effects, whereas using the observed particle decay rate gives a more accurate prediction of indoor concentrations. This table permits easy comparisons of indoor concentrations with air quality guidelines and indoor standards for different combinations of active smoking counts and air exchange rates. The published literature on mathematical models of environmental tobacco smoke also is reviewed and indicates that these models generally give good agreement between predicted concentrations and actual indoor measurements.

  11. Variation in Soil Enzyme Activities in a Temperate Agroforestry Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integration of agroforestry and grass buffers into row crop watersheds improves overall environmental quality, including soil quality. The objective of this study was to examine management and landscape effects on soil carbon, soil nitrogen, microbial diversity, enzyme activity, and DNA concentrati...

  12. Regional variation in myofilament length-dependent activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazorla, Olivier; Lacampagne, Alain

    2011-07-01

    The Frank-Starling law is an important regulatory mechanism of the heart that links the end-diastolic volume with the systolic ejection fraction. This beat-to-beat regulation of the heart, underlined at the cellular level by higher myofilament calcium sensitivity at longer sarcomere length, is known as length-dependent activation or stretch sensitization of activation. However, the heart is structurally and functionally heterogeneous and asymmetrical. Specifically, contractile properties are not uniform within the left ventricle partly due to transmural differences in action potential waveforms and calcium homeostasis. The present review will focus on the role of the contractile machinery in the transmural contractile heterogeneity and its adaptation to changes in muscle strain. The expression of different myosin isoforms, the level of titin-based passive tension, and thin and thick sarcomeric regulatory proteins are considered to explain the regional cellular contractile properties. Finally, the importance of transmural heterogeneity of length-dependent activation and the consequences of its modification on the heart mechanics are discussed. Despite extensive research since the characterization of the Frank-Starling law, the molecular mechanisms by which strain information is transduced to the contractile machinery have not been fully determined yet.

  13. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  14. Using an expiratory resistor, arterial pulse pressure variations predict fluid responsiveness during spontaneous breathing: an experimental porcine study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Michael K; Vistisen, Simon T; Koefoed-Nielsen, Jacob; Larsson, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Fluid responsiveness prediction is difficult in spontaneously breathing patients. Because the swings in intrathoracic pressure are minor during spontaneous breathing, dynamic parameters like pulse pressure variation (PPV) and systolic pressure variation (SPV) are usually small. We hypothesized that during spontaneous breathing, inspiratory and/or expiratory resistors could induce high arterial pressure variations at hypovolemia and low variations at normovolemia and hypervolemia. Furthermore, we hypothesized that SPV and PPV could predict fluid responsiveness under these conditions. Eight prone, anesthetized and spontaneously breathing pigs (20 to 25 kg) were subjected to a sequence of 30% hypovolemia, normovolemia, and 20% and 40% hypervolemia. At each volemic level, the pigs breathed in a randomized order either through an inspiratory and/or an expiratory threshold resistor (7.5 cmH2O) or only through the tracheal tube without any resistor. Hemodynamic and respiratory variables were measured during the breathing modes. Fluid responsiveness was defined as a 15% increase in stroke volume (DeltaSV) following fluid loading. Stroke volume was significantly lower at hypovolemia compared with normovolemia, but no differences were found between normovolemia and 20% or 40% hypervolemia. Compared with breathing through no resistor, SPV was magnified by all resistors at hypovolemia whereas there were no changes at normovolemia and hypervolemia. PPV was magnified by the inspiratory resistor and the combined inspiratory and expiratory resistor. Regression analysis of SPV or PPV versus DeltaSV showed the highest R2 (0.83 for SPV and 0.52 for PPV) when the expiratory resistor was applied. The corresponding sensitivity and specificity for prediction of fluid responsiveness were 100% and 100%, respectively, for SPV and 100% and 81%, respectively, for PPV. Inspiratory and/or expiratory threshold resistors magnified SPV and PPV in spontaneously breathing pigs during hypovolemia

  15. Predictive Active Set Selection Methods for Gaussian Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    We propose an active set selection framework for Gaussian process classification for cases when the dataset is large enough to render its inference prohibitive. Our scheme consists of a two step alternating procedure of active set update rules and hyperparameter optimization based upon marginal...... likelihood maximization. The active set update rules rely on the ability of the predictive distributions of a Gaussian process classifier to estimate the relative contribution of a datapoint when being either included or removed from the model. This means that we can use it to include points with potentially...... high impact to the classifier decision process while removing those that are less relevant. We introduce two active set rules based on different criteria, the first one prefers a model with interpretable active set parameters whereas the second puts computational complexity first, thus a model...

  16. Variation in sexual dimorphism and assortative mating do not predict genetic divergence in the sexually dimorphic Goodeid fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    C.MAC(I)AS GARCIA; G SMITH; C.GONZ(A)LEZ ZUARTH; J.A.GRAVES; M.G.RITCHIE

    2012-01-01

    Sexual dimorphism is often used as a proxy for the intensity of sexual selection in comparative studies of sexual selection and diversification.The Mexican Goodeinae are a group of livebearing freshwater fishes with large variation between species in sexual dimorphism in body shape.Previously we found an association between variation in morphological sexual dimorphism between species and the amount of gene flow within populations in the Goodeinae.Here we have examined if morphological differentiation within a single dimorphic species is related to assortative mating or gene flow between populations.In the Amarillo fish Girardinichthys multiradiatus studies have shown that exaggerated male fins are targets of female preferences.We find that populations of the species differ in the level of sexual dimorphism displayed due to faster evolution of differences in male than female morphology.However,this does not predict variation in assortative mating tests in the laboratory; in fact differences in male morphology are negatively correlated with assortative mating.Microsatellite markers reveal significant genetic differences between populations.However,gene flow is not predicted by either morphological differences or assortative mating.Rather,it demonstrates a pattern of isolation by distance with greater differentiation between watersheds.We discuss the caveats of predicting behavioural and genetic divergence from so-called proxies of sexual selection.

  17. Predictive models for radial sap flux variation in coniferous, diffuse-porous and ring-porous temperate trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdanier, Aaron B; Miniat, Chelcy F; Clark, James S

    2016-08-01

    Accurately scaling sap flux observations to tree or stand levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and by depth into the tree. However, existing models for radial variation in axial sap flux are rarely used because they are difficult to implement, there is uncertainty about their predictive ability and calibration measurements are often unavailable. Here we compare different models with a diverse sap flux data set to test the hypotheses that radial profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in the new settings. We develop a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  18. Mathematical models for predicting indoor air quality from smoking activity.

    OpenAIRE

    Ott, W R

    1999-01-01

    Much progress has been made over four decades in developing, testing, and evaluating the performance of mathematical models for predicting pollutant concentrations from smoking in indoor settings. Although largely overlooked by the regulatory community, these models provide regulators and risk assessors with practical tools for quantitatively estimating the exposure level that people receive indoors for a given level of smoking activity. This article reviews the development of the mass balanc...

  19. Mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit II variations predict adverse prognosis in cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silkjaer, Trine; Nyvold, Charlotte Guldborg; Juhl-Christensen, Caroline; Hokland, Peter; Nørgaard, Jan Maxwell

    2013-10-01

    Alterations in the two catalytic genes cytochrome c oxidase subunits I and II (COI and COII) have recently been suggested to have an adverse impact on prognosis in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). In order to explore this in further detail, we sequenced these two mitochondrial genes in diagnostic bone marrow or blood samples in 235 patients with AML. In 37 (16%) patients, a non-synonymous variation in either COI or COII could be demonstrated. No patients harboured both COI and COII non-synonymous variations. Twenty-four (10%) patients had non-synonymous variations in COI, whereas 13 (6%) patients had non-synonymous variations in COII. The COI and COII are essential subunits of cytochrome c oxidase that is the terminal enzyme in the oxidative phosphorylation complexes. In terms of disease course, we observed that in patients with a normal cytogenetic analysis at disease presentation (CN-AML) treated with curative intent, the presence of a non-synonymous variation in the COII was an adverse prognostic marker for both overall survival and disease-free survival (DFS) in both univariate (DFS; hazard ratio (HR) 4.4, P = 0.006) and multivariate analyses (DFS; HR 7.2, P = 0.001). This is the first demonstration of a mitochondrial aberration playing an adverse prognostic role in adult AML, and we argue that its role as a potentially novel adverse prognostic marker in the subset of CN-AML should be explored further.

  20. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  1. Improving active space telescope wavefront control using predictive thermal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersh-Range, Jessica; Perrin, Marshall D.

    2015-01-01

    Active control algorithms for space telescopes are less mature than those for large ground telescopes due to differences in the wavefront control problems. Active wavefront control for space telescopes at L2, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), requires weighing control costs against the benefits of correcting wavefront perturbations that are a predictable byproduct of the observing schedule, which is known and determined in advance. To improve the control algorithms for these telescopes, we have developed a model that calculates the temperature and wavefront evolution during a hypothetical mission, assuming the dominant wavefront perturbations are due to changes in the spacecraft attitude with respect to the sun. Using this model, we show that the wavefront can be controlled passively by introducing scheduling constraints that limit the allowable attitudes for an observation based on the observation duration and the mean telescope temperature. We also describe the implementation of a predictive controller designed to prevent the wavefront error (WFE) from exceeding a desired threshold. This controller outperforms simpler algorithms even with substantial model error, achieving a lower WFE without requiring significantly more corrections. Consequently, predictive wavefront control based on known spacecraft attitude plans is a promising approach for JWST and other future active space observatories.

  2. γ- Irradiation Effect: Variation of Photosynthetic Activity of Euglena

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Objective To study the effects of gamma-ray irradiation on carbon fixation (Specific production rate: SPR), CO2 utilization efficiency (CUE) and electron transfer rate (ETR) in the photosynthetic flagellate Euglena gracilis strain Z in a dose-response dependent manner. Methods Euglena cells were cultured in an inorganic nutrient medium containing ammonium chloride or proteose peptone. Cells were exposed to gamma-ray at 5 doses (0, 100, 250, 350, 500 Gy for water). Five days after irradiation, three photosynthetic activities were measured. SPR, which is a carbon uptake rate per unit carbon mass, was determined by 13C tracer methodology. CUE was evaluated using a relation of carbon isotope fractionation in Calvin cycle. ETR in photosystem II (PS II) was measured by a chlorophyll fluorescence analysis. Results Even at a dose of 500 Gy, 80 % of ETR of the non-irradiated control (0 Gy) was sustained, while SPR and CUE were about half the level in the non-irradiated control at 500 Gy. Furthermore, the dose response of ETR was considerably different from the others. Conclusion Our findings suggest that not only PS II but also the Calvin cycle in the photosynthetic system is affected by gamma ray irradiation.

  3. Testing a four-dimensional variational data assimilation method using an improved intermediate coupled model for ENSO analysis and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chuan; Wu, Xinrong; Zhang, Rong-Hua

    2016-07-01

    A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.

  4. Recognition and prediction of individual and combined muscular activation modes via surface EMG analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Graupe

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses how recognition of individual and combined muscular activation modes (functions and the prediction of intended such modes can be accomplished by identifying parameters of noninvasive surface EMG signals. It outlines the mathematical analysis of surface EMG signal to facilitate such recognition and related prediction, including recognition of intention (in terms of attempts to activate motor functions from the EMG, without accessing the CNS itself, in cases where a patient, say, a high-level amputee does not have the final-activation muscles and joints. The EMG activity thus allows to interpret and recognize CNS commands from minute variations in the parameters of surface EMG signals that record changes in the firing of motor neurons triggering contractions in related muscle fibers. We note that although in popular media this is sometimes referred to as detection of “thoughts”, no thoughts are detected, but only motor-outcomes of thoughts as found in the EMG signal. Examples of concrete cases where such recognition or prediction were accomplished in the author’s lab and in devices that came out of that lab, are given as are references to these in the literature over the last 35 years.

  5. Routine daily physical activity and glucose variations are strongly coupled in adults with T1DM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farabi, Sarah S; Carley, David W; Cinar, Ali; Quinn, Lauretta

    2015-12-01

    Type 1 Diabetes (T1DM) is characterized by altered glucose homeostasis resulting in wide glucose variations throughout a 24-h period. The relationship between routine daily physical activity and glucose variations has not been systematically investigated in adults with T1DM. The objectives of this study were to characterize and quantify the relationship between routine daily activity and glucose variations in a small group of adults with T1DM. Adults with T1DM treated with an insulin pump were recruited for the study. Over a 3-day period, glucose variations were monitored with a continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS) and routine daily physical activity was assessed using an accelerometer-based physical activity-monitoring band. Simultaneous glucose and physical activity data for one 24-h period were used for analysis. Cross-correlation function and wavelet coherence analyses were employed to quantify the coupling between physical activity and glucose. Twelve subjects were included in the analysis. Cross-correlation function analysis revealed strong coupling between activity and glucose. Wavelet Coherence demonstrated that slower oscillations (120-340 min) of glucose and physical activity exhibited significantly greater coherence (F = 12.6, P < 0.0001) than faster oscillations (10 and 120 min). Physical activity and glucose demonstrate strong time and frequency-dependent coupling throughout a 24-h time period in adults with T1DM.

  6. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports(1) and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased a...

  7. Personality Predicts Individual Variation in Fear Learning : A Multilevel Growth Modeling Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gazendam, Femke J.; Kamphuis, Jan H.; Eigenhuis, Annemarie; Huizenga, Hilde M H; Soeter, Marieke; Bos, Marieke G N; Sevenster, Dieuwke|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/375491104; Kindt, Merel

    2015-01-01

    Although fear-learning research has tended to focus on typical responses, there is substantial individual variation in response to threat. Here, we investigated how personality is related to variability in associative fear learning. We used multilevel growth curve modeling to examine the unique and

  8. Personality predicts individual variation in fear learning: a multilevel growth modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gazendam, F.J.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Eigenhuis, A.; Huizenga, H.M.; Soeter, M.; Bos, M.G.N.; Sevenster, D.; Kindt, M.

    2015-01-01

    Although fear-learning research has tended to focus on typical responses, there is substantial individual variation in response to threat. Here, we investigated how personality is related to variability in associative fear learning. We used multilevel growth curve modeling to examine the unique and

  9. Planning for subacute care: predicting demand using acute activity data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Janette P; McNamee, Jennifer P; Kobel, Conrad; Seraji, Md Habibur R; Lawrence, Suanne J

    2016-04-07

    Objective The aim of the present study was to develop a robust model that uses the concept of 'rehabilitation-sensitive' Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) in predicting demand for rehabilitation and geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) care following acute in-patient episodes provided in Australian hospitals.Methods The model was developed using statistical analyses of national datasets, informed by a panel of expert clinicians and jurisdictional advice. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken using acute in-patient data, published national hospital statistics and data from the Australasian Rehabilitation Outcomes Centre.Results The predictive model comprises tables of probabilities that patients will require rehabilitation or GEM care after an acute episode, with columns defined by age group and rows defined by grouped Australian Refined (AR)-DRGs.Conclusions The existing concept of rehabilitation-sensitive DRGs was revised and extended. When applied to national data, the model provided a conservative estimate of 83% of the activity actually provided. An example demonstrates the application of the model for service planning.What is known about the topic? Health service planning is core business for jurisdictions and local areas. With populations ageing and an acknowledgement of the underservicing of subacute care, it is timely to find improved methods of estimating demand for this type of care. Traditionally, age-sex standardised utilisation rates for individual DRGs have been applied to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections to predict the future need for subacute services. Improved predictions became possible when some AR-DRGs were designated 'rehabilitation-sensitive'. This improved methodology has been used in several Australian jurisdictions.What does this paper add? This paper presents a new tool, or model, to predict demand for rehabilitation and GEM services based on in-patient acute activity. In this model, the methodology

  10. Combined Active and Reactive Power Control of Wind Farms based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Jianhui;

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a combined wind farm controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). Compared with the conventional decoupled active and reactive power control, the proposed control scheme considers the significant impact of active power on voltage variations due to the low X=R ratio...... of wind farm collector systems. The voltage control is improved. Besides, by coordination of active and reactive power, the Var capacity is optimized to prevent potential failures due to Var shortage, especially when the wind farm operates close to its full load. An analytical method is used to calculate...... the sensitivity coefficients to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both normal and emergency conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to verify the proposed combined control scheme....

  11. Spontaneous brain activity predicts learning ability of foreign sounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-Campos, Noelia; Sanjuán, Ana; González, Julio; Palomar-García, María-Ángeles; Rodríguez-Pujadas, Aina; Sebastián-Gallés, Núria; Deco, Gustavo; Ávila, César

    2013-05-29

    Can learning capacity of the human brain be predicted from initial spontaneous functional connectivity (FC) between brain areas involved in a task? We combined task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and resting-state fMRI (rs-fMRI) before and after training with a Hindi dental-retroflex nonnative contrast. Previous fMRI results were replicated, demonstrating that this learning recruited the left insula/frontal operculum and the left superior parietal lobe, among other areas of the brain. Crucially, resting-state FC (rs-FC) between these two areas at pretraining predicted individual differences in learning outcomes after distributed (Experiment 1) and intensive training (Experiment 2). Furthermore, this rs-FC was reduced at posttraining, a change that may also account for learning. Finally, resting-state network analyses showed that the mechanism underlying this reduction of rs-FC was mainly a transfer in intrinsic activity of the left frontal operculum/anterior insula from the left frontoparietal network to the salience network. Thus, rs-FC may contribute to predict learning ability and to understand how learning modifies the functioning of the brain. The discovery of this correspondence between initial spontaneous brain activity in task-related areas and posttraining performance opens new avenues to find predictors of learning capacities in the brain using task-related fMRI and rs-fMRI combined.

  12. Low skin conductance activity in infancy predicts aggression in toddlers 2 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Erika; Shelton, Katherine H; Baibazarova, Eugenia; Hay, Dale F; van Goozen, Stephanie H M

    2013-06-01

    Low autonomic nervous system activity is claimed to be a biomarker for aggressive and antisocial behavior. Although there is evidence that low skin conductance activity (SCA) accounts for variation in the severity of antisocial behavior and predicts the onset of aggression in children and adults, it is unknown whether SCA measured in infancy can predict the development of aggression. We measured SCA in 70 typically developing 1-year-old infants at baseline, during an orienting habituation paradigm, and during a fear challenge. We also observed the infants' fear behavior, and each mother rated her infant's temperament and her attachment to her child. At follow-up, mothers rated the children at 3 years old for aggressive and nonaggressive behavior problems. Low infant SCA predicted aggressive behavior, but there was no association between SCA and nonaggressive behavior problems. Mothers' ratings of the infants' temperament and their maternal attachment and the infants' observed fearlessness did not predict later aggression. These results suggest that SCA is a specific biomarker for aggression in low-risk samples of infants.

  13. Predictability of the geospace variations and measuring the capability to model the state of the system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.

    2012-12-01

    Empirical modeling has been the workhorse of the past decades in predicting the state of the geospace. For example, numerous empirical studies have shown that global geoeffectiveness indices such as Kp and Dst are generally well predictable from the solar wind input. These successes have been facilitated partly by the strongly externally driven nature of the system. Although characterizing the general state of the system is valuable and empirical modeling will continue playing an important role, refined physics-based quantification of the state of the system has been the obvious next step in moving toward more mature science. Importantly, more refined and localized products are needed also for space weather purposes. Predictions of local physical quantities are necessary to make physics-based links to the impacts on specific systems. As we have introduced more localized predictions of the geospace state one central question is how predictable these local quantities are? This complex question can be addressed by rigorously measuring the model performance against the observed data. Space sciences community has made great advanced on this topic over the past few years and there are ongoing efforts in SHINE, CEDAR and GEM to carry out community-wide evaluations of the state-of-the-art solar and heliospheric, ionosphere-thermosphere and geospace models, respectively. These efforts will help establish benchmarks and thus provide means to measure the progress in the field analogous to monitoring of the improvement in lower atmospheric weather predictions carried out rigorously since 1980s. In this paper we will discuss some of the latest advancements in predicting the local geospace parameters and give an overview of some of the community efforts to rigorously measure the model performances. We will also briefly discuss some of the future opportunities for advancing the geospace modeling capability. These will include further development in data assimilation and ensemble

  14. Neural activity predicts attitude change in cognitive dissonance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Veen, Vincent; Krug, Marie K; Schooler, Jonathan W; Carter, Cameron S

    2009-11-01

    When our actions conflict with our prior attitudes, we often change our attitudes to be more consistent with our actions. This phenomenon, known as cognitive dissonance, is considered to be one of the most influential theories in psychology. However, the neural basis of this phenomenon is unknown. Using a Solomon four-group design, we scanned participants with functional MRI while they argued that the uncomfortable scanner environment was nevertheless a pleasant experience. We found that cognitive dissonance engaged the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and anterior insula; furthermore, we found that the activation of these regions tightly predicted participants' subsequent attitude change. These effects were not observed in a control group. Our findings elucidate the neural representation of cognitive dissonance, and support the role of the anterior cingulate cortex in detecting cognitive conflict and the neural prediction of attitude change.

  15. The ACTIVE cognitive training trial and predicted medical expenditures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith David M

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health care expenditures for older adults are disproportionately high and increasing at both the individual and population levels. We evaluated the effects of the three cognitive training interventions (memory, reasoning, or speed of processing in the ACTIVE study on changes in predicted medical care expenditures. Methods ACTIVE was a multisite randomized controlled trial of older adults (≥ 65. Five-year follow-up data were available for 1,804 of the 2,802 participants. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for potential attrition bias. Changes in predicted annualmedical expenditures were calculated at the first and fifth annual follow-up assessments using a new method for translating functional status scores. Multiple linear regression methods were used in this cost-offset analysis. Results At one and five years post-training, annual predicted expenditures declinedby $223 (p = .024 and $128 (p = .309, respectively, in the speed of processing treatment group, but there were no statistically significant changes in the memory or reasoning treatment groups compared to the no-contact control group at either period. Statistical adjustment for age, race, education, MMSE scores, ADL and IADL performance scores, EPT scores, chronic condition counts, and the SF-36 PCS and MCS scores at baseline did not alter the one-year ($244; p = .012 or five-year ($143; p = .250 expenditure declines in the speed of processing treatment group. Conclusion The speed of processing intervention significantly reduced subsequent annual predicted medical care expenditures at the one-year post-baseline comparison, but annual savings were no longer statistically significant at the five-year post-baseline comparison.

  16. Epigenetic variation predicts regional and local intraspecific functional diversity in a perennial herb.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrano, Mónica; Herrera, Carlos M; Bazaga, Pilar

    2014-10-01

    The ecological significance of epigenetic variation has been generally inferred from studies on model plants under artificial conditions, but the importance of epigenetic differences between individuals as a source of intraspecific diversity in natural plant populations remains essentially unknown. This study investigates the relationship between epigenetic variation and functional plant diversity by conducting epigenetic (methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphisms, MSAP) and genetic (amplified fragment length polymorphisms, AFLP) marker-trait association analyses for 20 whole-plant, leaf and regenerative functional traits in a large sample of wild-growing plants of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus from ten sampling sites in south-eastern Spain. Plants differed widely in functional characteristics, and exhibited greater epigenetic than genetic diversity, as shown by per cent polymorphism of MSAP fragments (92%) or markers (69%) greatly exceeding that for AFLP ones (41%). After controlling for genetic structuring and possible cryptic relatedness, every functional trait considered exhibited a significant association with at least one AFLP or MSAP marker. A total of 27 MSAP (13.0% of total) and 12 AFLP (4.4%) markers were involved in significant associations, which explained on average 8.2% and 8.0% of trait variance, respectively. Individual MSAP markers were more likely to be associated with functional traits than AFLP markers. Between-site differences in multivariate functional diversity were directly related to variation in multilocus epigenetic diversity after multilocus genetic diversity was statistically accounted for. Results suggest that epigenetic variation can be an important source of intraspecific functional diversity in H. foetidus, possibly endowing this species with the capacity to exploit a broad range of ecological conditions despite its modest genetic diversity.

  17. Analysis of Variation Characters and Prediction Model of Soil Temperature in Solar Greenhouse

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the soil temperature changes and its forecast model in greenhouse by solar heat. [Method] Annual and daily variation characters of soil temperature were analyzed in this paper by using the observation data of air temperature out of solar greenhouse and different layers soil temperature in it. The soil temperature (daily maximum, daily minimum and daily mean) forecasting models were also studied. Simulation and test were conducted to the forecast model of soil temperature in ...

  18. Predicting flow at work: investigating the activities and job characteristics that predict flow states at work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Karina; Cleal, Bryan

    2010-04-01

    Flow (a state of consciousness where people become totally immersed in an activity and enjoy it intensely) has been identified as a desirable state with positive effects for employee well-being and innovation at work. Flow has been studied using both questionnaires and Experience Sampling Method (ESM). In this study, we used a newly developed 9-item flow scale in an ESM study combined with a questionnaire to examine the predictors of flow at two levels: the activities (brainstorming, planning, problem solving and evaluation) associated with transient flow states and the more stable job characteristics (role clarity, influence and cognitive demands). Participants were 58 line managers from two companies in Denmark; a private accountancy firm and a public elder care organization. We found that line managers in elder care experienced flow more often than accountancy line managers, and activities such as planning, problem solving, and evaluation predicted transient flow states. The more stable job characteristics included in this study were not, however, found to predict flow at work.

  19. Prediction of Early Childhood Caries via Spatial-Temporal Variations of Oral Microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Fei; Yang, Fang; Huang, Shi; Bo, Cunpei; Xu, Zhenjiang Zech; Amir, Amnon; Knight, Rob; Ling, Junqi; Xu, Jian

    2015-09-09

    Microbiota-based prediction of chronic infections is promising yet not well established. Early childhood caries (ECC) is the most common infection in children. Here we simultaneously tracked microbiota development at plaque and saliva in 50 4-year-old preschoolers for 2 years; children either stayed healthy, transitioned into cariogenesis, or experienced caries exacerbation. Caries onset delayed microbiota development, which is otherwise correlated with aging in healthy children. Both plaque and saliva microbiota are more correlated with changes in ECC severity (dmfs) during onset than progression. By distinguishing between aging- and disease-associated taxa and exploiting the distinct microbiota dynamics between onset and progression, we developed a model, Microbial Indicators of Caries, to diagnose ECC from healthy samples with 70% accuracy and predict, with 81% accuracy, future ECC onsets for samples clinically perceived as healthy. Thus, caries onset in apparently healthy teeth can be predicted using microbiota, when appropriately de-trended for age.

  20. Baseline brain activity predicts response to neuromodulatory pain treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Mark P; Sherlin, Leslie H; Fregni, Felipe; Gianas, Ann; Howe, Jon D; Hakimian, Shahin

    2014-12-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the associations between baseline electroencephalogram (EEG)-assessed brain oscillations and subsequent response to four neuromodulatory treatments. Based on available research, we hypothesized that baseline theta oscillations would prospectively predict response to hypnotic analgesia. Analyses involving other oscillations and the other treatments (meditation, neurofeedback, and both active and sham transcranial direct current stimulation) were viewed as exploratory, given the lack of previous research examining brain oscillations as predictors of response to these other treatments. Randomized controlled study of single sessions of four neuromodulatory pain treatments and a control procedure. Thirty individuals with spinal cord injury and chronic pain had their EEG recorded before each session of four active treatments (hypnosis, meditation, EEG biofeedback, transcranial direct current stimulation) and a control procedure (sham transcranial direct stimulation). As hypothesized, more presession theta power was associated with greater response to hypnotic analgesia. In exploratory analyses, we found that less baseline alpha power predicted pain reduction with meditation. The findings support the idea that different patients respond to different pain treatments and that between-person treatment response differences are related to brain states as measured by EEG. The results have implications for the possibility of enhancing pain treatment response by either 1) better patient/treatment matching or 2) influencing brain activity before treatment is initiated in order to prepare patients to respond. Research is needed to replicate and confirm the findings in additional samples of individuals with chronic pain. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Stroke volume variation and pleth variability index to predict fluid responsiveness during resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors in Hans Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Q; Mi, W D; Zhang, H

    2012-02-01

    Respiration variation in arterial pulse pressure (ΔPP) and pulse oximetry plethysmographic waveform amplitude (ΔPOP) are accurate predictors of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. We hypothesized that stroke volume variation (SVV) and pleth variability index (PVI) can predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients during major surgical procedures in Hans Chinese. This prospective study consisted of fifty-five Hans Chinese patients undergoing resection of primary retroperitoneal tumors (PRPT). During the surgical procedures, hemodynamic data [central venous pressure (CVP), cardiac index (CI), stroke volume index (SVI), SVV, and PVI] were recorded before and after volume expansion (VE) (8 ml•kg-1 of 6% hydroxyethyl starch 130/0.4). Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in SVI ≥ 10% after VE. Four patients were excluded from analysis for arrhythmia or obvious hemorrhage during VE. Baseline SVV correlated well with baseline PVI and the changes in SVV was correlated with the changes in PVI (p Chinese.

  2. Building gene expression signatures indicative of transcription factor activation to predict AOP modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building gene expression signatures indicative of transcription factor activation to predict AOP modulation Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are a framework for predicting quantitative relationships between molecular initiatin...

  3. Interpatient variation in normal peripheral zone apparent diffusion coefficient: effect on the prediction of prostate cancer aggressiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litjens, Geert J S; Hambrock, Thomas; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina; Barentsz, Jelle O; Huisman, Henkjan J

    2012-10-01

    To determine the interpatient variability of prostate peripheral zone (PZ) apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and its effect on the assessment of prostate cancer aggressiveness. The requirement for institutional review board approval was waived. Intra- and interpatient variation of PZ ADCs was determined by means of repeated measurements of normal ADCs at three magnetic resonance (MR) examinations in a retrospective cohort of 10 consecutive patients who had high prostate-specific antigen levels and negative findings at transrectal ultrasonographically-guided biopsy. In these patients, no signs of PZ cancer were found at all three MR imaging sessions. The effect of interpatient variation on the assessment of prostate cancer aggressiveness was examined in a second retrospective cohort of 51 patients with PZ prostate cancer. Whole-mount step-section pathologic evaluation served as reference standard for placement of regions of interest on tumors and normal PZ. Repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to determine the significance of the interpatient variations in ADCs. Linear logistic regression was used to assess whether incorporating normal PZ ADCs improves the prediction of cancer aggressiveness. Analysis of variance revealed that interpatient variability (1.2-2.0×10(-3) mm2/sec) was significantly larger than measurement variability (0.068×10(-3) mm2/sec±0.027 [standard deviation]) (P=.0058). Stand-alone tumor ADCs showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.91 for discriminating low-grade versus high-grade tumors. Incorporating normal PZ ADC significantly improved the AUC to 0.96 (P=.0401). PZ ADCs show significant interpatient variation, which has a substantial effect on the prediction of prostate cancer aggressiveness. Correcting this effect results in a significant increase in diagnostic accuracy. © RSNA, 2012.

  4. Between-school variation in physical activity, aerobic fitness, and organized sports participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Peter L; Olesen, Line G; Ried-Larsen, Mathias

    2013-01-01

    Abstract A large proportion of a child's day is spent at school interacting with certain physical surroundings, teachers, and school friends. Thus, schools could have a marked impact on establishing physical activity habits. The aim of the present study was to assess between-school variation...... in physical activity, aerobic fitness, and organized sports participation. Altogether, we tested 1766 nine- and fifteen-year-old children attending 242 school classes at 35 different schools in Denmark in 1997-2003. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for objectively assessed physical activity...... between-school variation in physical activity provides information about the extent to which children adjust their physical activity habits according to the social and environmental circumstances that they share, and helps to plan future school-based physical activity studies, especially in terms...

  5. Regression-based prediction of net energy expenditure in children performing activities at high altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarton-Miller, Isabelle; Holman, Darryl J; Spielvogel, Hilde

    2003-01-01

    We developed a simple, non-invasive, and affordable method for estimating net energy expenditure (EE) in children performing activities at high altitude. A regression-based method predicts net oxygen consumption (VO(2)) from net heart rate (HR) along with several covariates. The method is atypical in that, the "net" measures are taken as the difference between exercise and resting VO(2) (DeltaVO(2)) and the difference between exercise and resting HR (DeltaHR); DeltaVO(2) partially corrects for resting metabolic rate and for posture, and DeltaHR controls for inter-individual variation in physiology and for posture. Twenty children between 8 and 13 years of age, born and raised in La Paz, Bolivia (altitude 3,600m), made up the reference sample. Anthropometric measures were taken, and VO(2) was assessed while the children performed graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer. A repeated-measures prediction equation was developed, and maximum likelihood estimates of parameters were found from 75 observations on 20 children. The final model included the variables DeltaHR, DeltaHR(2), weight, and sex. The effectiveness of the method was established using leave-one-out cross-validation, yielding a prediction error rate of 0.126 for a mean DeltaVO(2) of 0.693 (SD 0.315). The correlation between the predicted and measured DeltaVO(2) was r = 0.917, suggesting that a useful prediction equation can be produced using paired VO(2) and HR measurements on a relatively small reference sample. The resulting prediction equation can be used for estimating EE from HR in free-living children performing habitual activities in the Bolivian Andes.

  6. Plant genetics predicts intra-annual variation in phytochemistry and arthropod community structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimp, G M; Wooley, S; Bangert, R K; Young, W P; Martinsen, G D; Keim, P; Rehill, B; Lindroth, R L; Whitham, T G

    2007-12-01

    With the emerging field of community genetics, it is important to quantify the key mechanisms that link genetics and community structure. We studied cottonwoods in common gardens and in natural stands and examined the potential for plant chemistry to be a primary mechanism linking plant genetics and arthropod communities. If plant chemistry drives the relationship between plant genetics and arthropod community structure, then several predictions followed. We would find (i) the strongest correlation between plant genetic composition and chemical composition; (ii) an intermediate correlation between plant chemical composition and arthropod community composition; and (iii) the weakest relationship between plant genetic composition and arthropod community composition. Our results supported our first prediction: plant genetics and chemistry had the strongest correlation in the common garden and the wild. Our results largely supported our second prediction, but varied across space, seasonally, and according to arthropod feeding group. Plant chemistry played a larger role in structuring common garden arthropod communities relative to wild communities, free-living arthropods relative to leaf and stem modifiers, and early-season relative to late-season arthropods. Our results did not support our last prediction, as host plant genetics was at least as tightly linked to arthropod community structure as plant chemistry, if not more so. Our results demonstrate the consistency of the relationship between plant genetics and biodiversity. Additionally, plant chemistry can be an important mechanism by which plant genetics affects arthropod community composition, but other genetic-based factors are likely involved that remain to be measured.

  7. Temporal variations in microbial activities and carbon turnover in subtidal sandy sediments

    OpenAIRE

    Böer, S. I.; Arnosti, C.; J. E. E. van Beusekom; A. Boetius

    2009-01-01

    Temporal dynamics and vertical patterns in bacterial abundances and activities were studied in a shallow subtidal sand flat in the Sylt-Rømø Basin (North Frisian Wadden Sea, Germany.) Extracellular enzymatic activities, bacterial carbon production and community respiration showed strong (factor of 4–5) temporal variations that were mostly related to seasonal temperature change, but also to changes in substrate availability. These temporal patterns in activity were barely reflected in bacteria...

  8. LONG-TERM VARIATION IN THE SUN’S ACTIVITY CAUSED BY MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVES IN THE TACHOCLINE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V. [Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Schmiedlstrasse 6, 8042 Graz (Austria); Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis [Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Hanslmeier, Arnold [Institute für Physik, Geophysik Astrophysik und Meteorologie, University of Graz, Univ.-Platz 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Carbonell, Marc [Departament de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Gachechiladze, Tamar [Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory at Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia (United States); Usoskin, Ilya G., E-mail: teimuraz.zaqarashvili@oeaw.ac.at [Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory and ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, University of Oulu, FI-90014 Oulo (Finland)

    2015-06-01

    Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun's magnetic activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200, and 100 years. We found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200–1300 G in the lower tachocline are in perfect agreement with the timescales of observed variations. The steady toroidal magnetic field can be generated in the lower tachocline either due to the steady dynamo magnetic field for low magnetic diffusivity or due to the action of the latitudinal differential rotation on the weak poloidal primordial magnetic field, which penetrates from the radiative interior. The slow magnetic Rossby waves lead to variations of the steady toroidal magnetic field in the lower tachocline, which modulate the dynamo magnetic field and consequently the solar cycle strength. This result constitutes a key point for long-term prediction of the cycle strength. According to our model, the next deep minimum in solar activity is expected during the first half of this century.

  9. Gene expression variation to predict 10-year survival in lymph-node-negative breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karlsson Per

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is of great significance to find better markers to correctly distinguish between high-risk and low-risk breast cancer patients since the majority of breast cancer cases are at present being overtreated. Methods 46 tumours from node-negative breast cancer patients were studied with gene expression microarrays. A t-test was carried out in order to find a set of genes where the expression might predict clinical outcome. Two classifiers were used for evaluation of the gene lists, a correlation-based classifier and a Voting Features Interval (VFI classifier. We then evaluated the predictive accuracy of this expression signature on tumour sets from two similar studies on lymph-node negative patients. They had both developed gene expression signatures superior to current methods in classifying node-negative breast tumours. These two signatures were also tested on our material. Results A list of 51 genes whose expression profiles could predict clinical outcome with high accuracy in our material (96% or 89% accuracy in cross-validation, depending on type of classifier was developed. When tested on two independent data sets, the expression signature based on the 51 identified genes had good predictive qualities in one of the data sets (74% accuracy, whereas their predictive value on the other data set were poor, presumably due to the fact that only 23 of the 51 genes were found in that material. We also found that previously developed expression signatures could predict clinical outcome well to moderately well in our material (72% and 61%, respectively. Conclusion The list of 51 genes derived in this study might have potential for clinical utility as a prognostic gene set, and may include candidate genes of potential relevance for clinical outcome in breast cancer. According to the predictions by this expression signature, 30 of the 46 patients may have benefited from different adjuvant treatment than they recieved. Trial

  10. Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. de la Morena

    Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

  11. Comparison of Regression Techniques to Predict Response of Oilseed Rape Yield to Variation in Climatic Conditions in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharif, Behzad; Makowski, David; Plauborg, Finn;

    2017-01-01

    -validation. The regression methods leading to the most accurate yield predictions were Lasso and Elastic Net, and the least accurate methods were ordinary least squares and stepwise regression. Partial least squares and ridge regression methods gave intermediate results. The estimated relative yield change for a +1°C......Statistical regression models represent alternatives to process-based dynamic models for predicting the response of crop yields to variation in climatic conditions. Regression models can be used to quantify the effect of change in temperature and precipitation on yields. However, it is difficult...... to identify the most relevant input variables that should be included in regression models due to the high number of candidate variables and to their correlations. This paper compares several regression techniques for modeling response of winter oilseed rape yield to a high number of correlated input...

  12. Gamma-glutamyltransferase activity in plasma: statistical distributions, individual variations, and reference intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiele, F; Guilmin, A M; Detienne, H; Siest, G

    1977-06-01

    Measurement of gamma-glutamyltransferase activity in plasma provides a useful index to liver function. Using as our study population those persons coming to the Center for Preventive Medicine, we described and measured the significance and importance of physiological and environmental variations. We established a classification for the variation factors. The three most important factors affecting this activity were drug intake, alcohol consumption, and excessive weight, followed by sex and age. We suggest a preliminary group of reference intervals for healthy subjects to be used in interpreting a laboratory test.

  13. Persistent high paleosecular variation activity in southern hemisphere for at least 10 000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, Catherine; Korte, Monika; Panovska, Sanja

    2016-11-01

    Direct observations of the geomagnetic field show that secular variation is strong in the Atlantic hemisphere, and comparatively reduced in the Pacific region. The dipole has been decaying since at least 1840 AD, driven by growth and migration of reverse flux patches in the southern hemisphere. We investigate whether anything like this modern pattern of geomagnetic secular variation persists and can be detected in global paleomagnetic field models. Synthesis of results from two new time-varying spherical harmonic models shows that geographically distinct geomagnetic secular variation extends to at least 10 000 BP. The models use the same database but differ in methodology, leading to some regional differences in results. Consistent large-scale surface features include strong average fields in the northern hemisphere and weaker fields with greater overall variability in the south. Longitudinal structure is present, with weaker average fields in the western Pacific than in the east, and prominent negative inclination anomalies extending beneath Indonesia, across Africa and to Brazil, but weaker anomalies in the central Pacific. Marginally positive inclination anomalies occur west of the Americas. Paleosecular variation activity peaks at high southern latitudes, and there is a pattern of reduced activity at equatorial and mid-latitudes beneath the Pacific. Although the dipole has exhibited both growth and decay over the interval 0-10 000 BP, our results show that geomagnetic paleosecular variation is preferentially focused in similar geographic regions to secular variation seen in the modern field.

  14. Numerical Modeling for Springback Predictions by Considering the Variations of Elastic Modulus in Stamping Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunok; Kimchi, Menachem

    2011-08-01

    This paper presents a numerical modeling approach for predicting springback by considering the variations of elastic modulus on springback in stamping AHSS. Various stamping tests and finite-element method (FEM) simulation codes were used in this study. The cyclic loading-unloading tensile tests were conducted to determine the variations of elastic modulus for dual-phase (DP) 780 sheet steel. The biaxial bulge test was used to obtain plastic flow stress data. The non-linear reduction of elastic modulus for increasing the plastic strain was formulated by using the Yoshida model that was implemented in FEM simulations for springback. To understand the effects of material properties on springback, experiments were conducted with a simple geometry such as U-shape bending and the more complex geometry such as the curved flanging and S-rail stamping. Different measurement methods were used to confirm the final part geometry. Two different commercial FEM codes, LS-DYNA and DEFORM, were used to compare the experiments. The variable elastic modulus improved springback predictions in U-shape bending and curved flanging tests compared to FEM with the constant elastic modulus. However, in S-rail stamping tests, both FEM models with the isotropic hardening model showed limitations in predicting the sidewall curl of the S-rail part after springback. To consider the kinematic hardening and Bauschinger effects that result from material bending-unbending in S-rail stamping, the Yoshida model was used for FEM simulation of S-rail stamping and springback. The FEM predictions showed good improvement in correlating with experiments.

  15. An epigenetic signature in peripheral blood predicts active ovarian cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew E Teschendorff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that DNA methylation (DNAm markers in peripheral blood may hold promise as diagnostic or early detection/risk markers for epithelial cancers. However, to date no study has evaluated the diagnostic and predictive potential of such markers in a large case control cohort and on a genome-wide basis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By performing genome-wide DNAm profiling of a large ovarian cancer case control cohort, we here demonstrate that active ovarian cancer has a significant impact on the DNAm pattern in peripheral blood. Specifically, by measuring the methylation levels of over 27,000 CpGs in blood cells from 148 healthy individuals and 113 age-matched pre-treatment ovarian cancer cases, we derive a DNAm signature that can predict the presence of active ovarian cancer in blind test sets with an AUC of 0.8 (95% CI (0.74-0.87. We further validate our findings in another independent set of 122 post-treatment cases (AUC = 0.76 (0.72-0.81. In addition, we provide evidence for a significant number of candidate risk or early detection markers for ovarian cancer. Furthermore, by comparing the pattern of methylation with gene expression data from major blood cell types, we here demonstrate that age and cancer elicit common changes in the composition of peripheral blood, with a myeloid skewing that increases with age and which is further aggravated in the presence of ovarian cancer. Finally, we show that most cancer and age associated methylation variability is found at CpGs located outside of CpG islands. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results underscore the potential of DNAm profiling in peripheral blood as a tool for detection or risk-prediction of epithelial cancers, and warrants further in-depth and higher CpG coverage studies to further elucidate this role.

  16. Predictive Analysis of Landslide Activity Using Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markuzon, N.; Regan, J.; Slesnick, C.

    2012-12-01

    Landslides are historically one of the most damaging geohazard phenomena in terms of death tolls and socio-economic losses. Therefore, understanding the underlying causes of landslides and how environmental phenomena affect their frequency and severity is of critical importance. Of specific importance for mitigating future damage is increasing our understanding of how climate change will affect landslide severity, occurrence rates, and damage. We are developing data driven models aimed at predicting landslide activity. The models learn multi-dimensional weather and geophysical patterns associated with historical landslides and estimate location-dependent probabilities for landslides under current or future weather and geophysical conditions. Our approach uses machine learning algorithms capable of determining non-linear associations between dependent variables and landslide occurrence without requiring detailed knowledge of geomorphology. Our primary goal in year one of the project is to evaluate the predictive capabilities of data mining models in application to landslide activity, and to analyze if the approach will discover previously unknown variables and/or relationships important to landslide occurrence, frequency or severity. The models include remote sensing and ground-based data, including weather, landcover, slope, elevation and drainage information as well as urbanization data. The historical landslide dataset we used to build our preliminary models was compiled from City of Seattle landslide files, United States Geological Survey reports, newspaper articles, and a verified subset of the Seattle Landslide Database that consists of all reported landslides within Seattle, WA, between 1948 and 1999. Most of the landslides analyzed to-date are shallow. Using statistical analysis and unsupervised clustering methods we have thus far identified subsets of weather conditions that lead to a significantly higher landslide probability, and have developed

  17. Dynamic Model of Centrifugal Compressor for Prediction of Surge Evolution and Performance Variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Mooncheong; Han, Jaeyoung; Yu, Sangseok [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    When a control algorithm is developed to protect automotive compressor surges, the simulation model typically selects an empirically determined look-up table. However, it is difficult for a control oriented empirical model to show surge characteristics of the super charger. In this study, a dynamic supercharger model is developed to predict the performance of a centrifugal compressor under dynamic load follow-up. The model is developed using Simulink® environment, and is composed of a compressor, throttle body, valves, and chamber. Greitzer’s compressor model is used, and the geometric parameters are achieved by the actual supercharger. The simulation model is validated with experimental data. It is shown that compressor surge is effectively predicted by this dynamic compressor model under various operating conditions.

  18. Variational prediction of the mechanical behavior of shape memory alloys based on thermal experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junker, Philipp; Jaeger, Stefanie; Kastner, Oliver; Eggeler, Gunther; Hackl, Klaus

    2015-07-01

    In this work, we present simulations of shape memory alloys which serve as first examples demonstrating the predicting character of energy-based material models. We begin with a theoretical approach for the derivation of the caloric parts of the Helmholtz free energy. Afterwards, experimental results for DSC measurements are presented. Then, we recall a micromechanical model based on the principle of the minimum of the dissipation potential for the simulation of polycrystalline shape memory alloys. The previously determined caloric parts of the Helmholtz free energy close the set of model parameters without the need of parameter fitting. All quantities are derived directly from experiments. Finally, we compare finite element results for tension tests to experimental data and show that the model identified by thermal measurements can predict mechanically induced phase transformations and thus rationalize global material behavior without any further assumptions.

  19. Acquisition and Active Navigation of Knowledge Particles throughout Product Variation Design Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Shuyou; XU Jinghua

    2009-01-01

    The variation design of complex products has such features as multivariate association, weak theory coupling and implicit knowledge iteration. However, present CAD soft wares are still restricted to making decisions only according to current design status in dynamic navigation which leads to the huge drain of the knowledge hidden in design process. In this paper, a method of acquisition and active navigation of knowledge particles throughout product variation design process is put forward. The multi-objective decision information model of the variation design is established via the definition of condition attribute set and decision attribute set in finite universe. The addition and retrieval of the variation semantics is achieved through bidirectional association between the transplantable structures and variation design semantics. The mapping relationships between the topology lapping geometry elements set and constraint relations set family is built by means of geometry feature analysis. The acquisition of knowledge particles is implemented by attribute reduction based on rough set theory to make multi-objective decision of variation design. The topology lapping status of transplantable substructures is known from DOF reduction. The active navigation of knowledge particles is realized through embedded event-condition-action(ECA) rules. The independent prototype system taking Alan, Charles, Ian's system(ACIS) as kernel has been developed to verify the proposed method by applying variation design of complex mechanical products. The test results demonstrate that the navigation decision basis can be successfully extended from static isolated design status to dynamic continuous design process so that it more flexibly adapts to the different designers and various variation design steps. It is of profound significance for enhancing system intelligence as well as improving design quality and efficiency.

  20. Interindividual variation in Complex I activity in Fundulus heteroclitus along a steep thermocline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftus, Samuel J; Crawford, Douglas L

    2013-01-01

    The first enzyme in the oxidative phosphorylation pathway is Complex I (EC 1.6.5.3). Complex I is a large heteromeric enzyme complex with 45 protein subunits that translocates H(+) ions across the mitochondrial inner membrane. Among northern and southern populations of the teleost fish Fundulus heteroclitus, Complex I subunits have fixed amino acid substitutions. Additionally, there are differences in oxidative phosphorylation activity among populations of F. heteroclitus. To investigate whether these differences are related to Complex I, enzyme activity was measured in 121 individuals from five populations of F. heteroclitus and its sister species Fundulus grandis acclimated to a constant 20°C temperature. Within each population, Complex I activity is highly variable among individuals of F. heteroclitus (coefficient of variation percentage among individuals has a mean of 90% in the five F. heteroclitus populations), and the mean Complex I activity among populations is significantly different at the latitudinal extremes of the range. Importantly, Complex I activity is more similar between F. heteroclitus from the southernmost population and its sister species F. grandis than to the northern populations of F. heteroclitus, suggesting important evolutionary differences. Unexpectedly, the activity is nearly fourfold higher in southern populations than northern populations. Mitochondrial density appears to compensate partially for decreased activity in northern individuals; activity per wet weight is only twofold higher in southern populations. We suggest that some of the variation in Complex I activity is genetically based and thus is being influenced by directional selection. However, this conclusion presents a conundrum: there should not be so much variation in Complex I activity within a population if this variation is biologically important.

  1. Prediction of antibacterial activity from physicochemical properties of antimicrobial peptides.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel N Melo

    Full Text Available Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible correlation of these with the in vivo onset of activity have only recently been proposed. In addition, such thresholds observed in model membranes occur at local peptide concentrations close to full membrane coverage. In this work we fully develop an interaction model of antimicrobial peptides with biological membranes; by exploring the consequences of the underlying partition formalism we arrive at a relationship that provides antibacterial activity prediction from two biophysical parameters: the affinity of the peptide to the membrane and the critical bound peptide to lipid ratio. A straightforward and robust method to implement this relationship, with potential application to high-throughput screening approaches, is presented and tested. In addition, disruptive thresholds in model membranes and the onset of antibacterial peptide activity are shown to occur over the same range of locally bound peptide concentrations (10 to 100 mM, which conciliates the two types of observations.

  2. [Model for predicting childhood obesity from diet and physical activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrosa-Haro, Alfredo; González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vásquez-Garibay, Edgar Manuel; Romero-Velarde, Enrique; Chávez-Palencia, Clío; Salazar-Preciado, Laura Leticia; Lizárraga-Corona, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    If obesity results from the interaction of variables that involve the subject and his environment, the alternatives to face the problem could be very diverse. The objective of this study was to seek for the best predictive model of childhood obesity from energy ingestion, dietary habits and physical activity. Case control study of 99 obese and 100 healthy weight children (Center for Diseases Control criteria). Energy ingestion was estimated by means of a 24-hour recall, dietary and physical activity habits by validated questionnaires. A logistic regression analysis was made. Variables independently associated to obesity were higher energy ingestion; lower frequency in mealtimes; having the afternoon lunch outside home; higher frequency of consumption of fat, junk food and sweetened beverages; lower time of moderate physical activity at school and at home; and increased time for homework and watching TV. The variables included in the regression model were energy intake; frequency of ingestion of fat, junk foods and sweetened beverages; and physical activity at home and at school. The diversity of associated variables underlines the complexity and multi-causal condition of obesity.

  3. Recent and Past Musical Activity Predicts Cognitive Aging Variability: Direct Comparison with Leisure Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda eHanna-Pladdy

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age . These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to nonmusical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study examined the type of leisure activity (musical versus other as well as the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (> 10 years and nonmusicians (ages 59-80 were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and life-style activities (AAP. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to explain performance variance in musicians. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal immediate recall, judgment of line orientation (JLO, and Letter Number Sequencing (LNS, but not the AAP. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted JLO in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (< 9 years predicted enhanced LNS in musicians, while analyses for AAP, verbal recall and fluency were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not leisure activity, predicted variability across verbal and visuospatial domains in aging. Early musical acquisition predicted auditory

  4. Geographic variation of surface energy partitioning in the climatic mean predicted from the maximum power limit

    CERN Document Server

    Dhara, Chirag; Kleidon, Axel

    2015-01-01

    Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model in which convective fluxes and surface temperatures are determined with the additional thermodynamic limit of maximum convective power. We then show that the broad geographic variation of heat fluxes and surface temperatures in the climatological mean compare very well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis over land and ocean. We also show that the estimates depend considerably on the formulation of longwave radiative transfer and that a spatially uniform offset is related to the assumed cold temperature sink at which the heat engine operates.

  5. Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pincheira-Donoso

    Full Text Available Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses, such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.

  6. Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterfield, Bradley J.; Wood, Troy E.

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

  7. Variation in contents of main active components and antioxidant activity in leaves of different pigeon pea cultivars during growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zuo-Fu; Jin, Shuang; Luo, Meng; Pan, You-Zhi; Li, Ting-Ting; Qi, Xiao-Lin; Efferth, Thomas; Fu, Yu-Jie; Zu, Yuan-Gang

    2013-10-23

    Pigeon pea is an important and multiuse grain legume crop, and its leaves are a very valuable natural resource. To obtain a high-quality biological resource, it is necessary to choose the excellent cultivar and determine the appropriate harvest time. In this study, the variation in contents of main active components and antioxidant activity in leaves of six pigeon pea cultivars during growth were investigated. The level of each individual active component significantly varied during growth, but with a different pattern, and this variation was different among cultivars. Flavonoid glycosides orientin, vitexin, and apigenin-6,8-di-C-α-L-arabinopyranoside showed two peak values at mid-late and final stages of growth in most cases. Pinostrobin chalcone, longistyline C, and cajaninstilbene acid showed remarkablely higher values at the mid-late stage of growth than at other stages. Pinostrobin had an extremely different variation pattern compared to other active components. Its content was the highest at the earlier stage of growth. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that vitexin and apigenin-6,8-di-C-α-L-arabinopyranoside were mainly responsible for distinguishing cultivars analyzed. In a comprehensive consideration, the leaves should preferentially be harvested at the 135th day after sowing when the level of active components and antioxidant activity reached higher values. Cultivars ICP 13092, ICPL 87091, and ICPL 96053 were considered to be excellent cultivars with high antioxidant activity. Our findings can provide valuable information for producing a high-quality pigeon pea resource.

  8. Does Respiratory Variation in Inferior Vena Cava Diameter Predict Fluid Responsiveness: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Elliot; Oakley, Ed; Duke, Trevor; Babl, Franz E

    2017-05-01

    The aim of fluid resuscitation is to increase stroke volume, yet this effect is observed in only 50% of patients. Prediction of fluid responsiveness may allow fluid resuscitation to be administered to those most likely to benefit. The aim of this study was to systematically review the test characteristics of respiratory variation in inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter as a predictor of fluid responsiveness in patients with acute circulatory failure. Electronic searches combined with reference review of identified studies. Prospective observational studies of all patient groups and ages that used a recognized reference standard, stratified participants into fluid responders and fluid non-responders, and used summary statistics to describe their results were selected for inclusion. Study design, size, setting, patient population, use of mechanical ventilation and tidal volume, definition of fluid responsiveness, fluid challenge strategy, and summary statistics were abstracted. Quality assessment was performed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) domains. Seventeen studies involving 533 patients were included, in whom 253 (47%) were fluid responders. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for a positive IVC ultrasound as a predictor of fluid responsiveness were 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.69) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78), respectively, with a pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 (standard error 0.05). In subgroup analysis, respiratory variation in IVC diameter was a better predictor of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. Respiratory variation in IVC diameter has limited ability to predict fluid responsiveness, particularly in spontaneously ventilating patients. A negative test cannot be used to rule out fluid responsiveness. Clinical context should be taken into account when using IVC ultrasound to help make treatment decisions.

  9. Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Pattnaik, S.; De, S.

    2013-08-01

    This study examines the phase dependant temporal and spatial error evolution and prediction of active break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an ensemble prediction system (EPS) on a pentad time scale using climate forecast system (CFS). The EPS system shows systematic wet bias (overestimation) over west coast over the Arabian Sea and Myanmar coast and dry bias (underestimation) over Indian land mass even at pentad 1 lead and these biases consistently increase up to 4 pentad lead and saturate thereafter. Irrespective of the phases of the monsoon, the lower bound of predictability is 2 pentads, while upper bound of predictability for initial conditions starting from active phase saturates at 3 pentads and for break and transition phases predictability error saturates at a later stage at about 5 pentad. Initial conditions started from transition phase shows higher potential predictability followed by break phase and then active phase.

  10. TEC variations and IRI-2012 performance at equatorial latitudes over Africa during low solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olawepo, A. O.; Adeniyi, J. O.; Oluwadare, E. J.

    2017-04-01

    GPS-TEC data obtained from Asmara (Geomag. Lat 11.42N, Long. 113.31E), Bahir Dar (Geomag. Lat. 8.04N, Long. 111.19E), and Eldoret (Geomag. Lat. 2.71S, Long. 107.30E), three stations in the equatorial region of the African sector, have been used to study the variations in the vertical total electron content (vTEC) and to investigate the performance of the three topside options in the IRI-2012 during the year 2010, a year of low solar activity (Rz = 16). The results revealed that TEC exhibits diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal characteristics. TEC values over the three stations are minimum during the sunrise hour of 0600LT and maximum around 1200LT-1500LT irrespective of the season. Daytime peak is followed by a steady decay in TEC which continues into the mid-night. TEC values during the equinoxes are observed to be greater than those of the solstices. TEC values during March equinox are higher than those of September equinox for the stations in the northern hemisphere. June solstices exhibit the lowest values for all the stations. For the station in the southern hemisphere, TEC values during December solstice values are slightly higher than those of September equinox. The three topside options in IRI-2012 reproduce the morphology of TEC at the three stations with correlation coefficient ranging between 0.97 and 0.99. The performance of NeQuick option at predicting TEC at these stations is observed to be the best compared to the other two options irrespective of the season.

  11. Recent and past musical activity predicts cognitive aging variability: direct comparison with general lifestyle activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna-Pladdy, Brenda; Gajewski, Byron

    2012-01-01

    Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years) on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age. These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to non-musical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in general lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study controlled for general activity level in evaluating cognition between musicians and nomusicians. Also, the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent) was assessed in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (>10 years) and non-musicians (ages 59-80) were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and general lifestyle activities. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal working memory, verbal immediate recall, visuospatial judgment, and motor dexterity, but did not differ in other general leisure activities. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to determine aspects of musical training predictive of enhanced cognition. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted visuospatial functions in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (memory in musicians, while analyses for other measures were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not general lifestyle activities, predicted variability

  12. Variation in energy expenditure among black-legged kittiwakes : Effects of activity-specific metabolic rates and activity budgets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jodice, PGR; Roby, DD; Suryan, RM; Irons, DB; Kaufman, AM; Turco, KR; Visser, GH

    2003-01-01

    We sought to determine the effect of variation in time-activity budgets (TABs) and foraging behavior on energy expenditure rates of parent black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). We quantified TABs using direct observations of radio-tagged adults and simultaneously measured field metabolic rates

  13. Macroecology of Sexual Selection: A Predictive Conceptual Framework for Large-Scale Variation in Reproductive Traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Glauco; Buzatto, Bruno A; García-Hernández, Solimary; Macías-Ordóñez, Rogelio

    2016-09-01

    Abiotic factors exert direct and indirect influences on behavioral, morphological, and life-history traits. Because some of these traits are related to reproduction, there is a causal link between climatic conditions and the expression of reproductive traits. This link allows us to generate predictions on how reproductive traits vary in large geographic scales. Here we formalize this macroecological framework, present some general predictions, and explore empirical examples using harvestmen as study organisms. Our results show that the length of breeding season in harvestmen is primarily influenced by the number of warm months and that precipitation plays a secondary role in modulating the period devoted to reproduction. Moreover, we show that the probability of resource defense polygyny increases with longer breeding seasons and that the presence of this type of mating system positively affects the magnitude of sexual dimorphism in harvestmen. Finally, the presence of postovipositional parental care is also influenced by the length of breeding season but not by actual evapotranspiration, which is our proxy for the intensity of biotic interactions. We argue that the macroecological framework proposed here may be a fruitful field of investigation, with important implications for our understanding of sexual selection and the evolution of reproductive traits in both animals and plants.

  14. Slow Learner Prediction using Multi-Variate Naïve Bayes Classification Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiwani Rana

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Machine Learning is a field of computer science that learns from data by studying algorithms and their constructions. In machine learning, for specific inputs, algorithms help to make predictions. Classification is a supervised learning approach, which maps a data item into predefined classes. For predicting slow learners in an institute, a modified Naïve Bayes algorithm implemented. The implementation is carried sing Python.  It takes into account a combination of likewise multi-valued attributes. A dataset of the 60 students of BE (Information Technology Third Semester for the subject of Digital Electronics of University Institute of Engineering and Technology (UIET, Panjab University (PU, Chandigarh, India is taken to carry out the simulations. The analysis is done by choosing most significant forty-eight attributes. The experimental results have shown that the modified Naïve Bayes model has outperformed the Naïve Bayes Classifier in accuracy but requires significant improvement in the terms of elapsed time. By using Modified Naïve Bayes approach, the accuracy is found out to be 71.66% whereas it is calculated 66.66% using existing Naïve Bayes model. Further, a comparison is drawn by using WEKA tool. Here, an accuracy of Naïve Bayes is obtained as 58.33 %.

  15. Epigenetic and genetic variation at SKA2 predict suicidal behavior and post-traumatic stress disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminsky, Z; Wilcox, H C; Eaton, W W; Van Eck, K; Kilaru, V; Jovanovic, T; Klengel, T; Bradley, B; Binder, E B; Ressler, K J; Smith, A K

    2015-08-25

    Traumatic stress results in hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis abnormalities and an increased risk to both suicidal behaviors and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work out of our laboratory identified SKA2 DNA methylation associations with suicidal behavior in the blood and brain of multiple cohorts. Interaction of SKA2 with stress predicted suicidal behavior with ~80% accuracy. SKA2 is hypothesized to reduce the ability to suppress cortisol following stress, which is of potentially high relevance in traumatized populations. Our objective was to investigate the interaction of SKA2 and trauma exposure on HPA axis function, suicide attempt and PTSD. SKA2 DNA methylation at Illumina HM450 probe cg13989295 was assessed for association with suicidal behavior and PTSD metrics in the context of Child Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) scores in 421 blood and 61 saliva samples from the Grady Trauma Project (GTP) cohort. Dexamethasone suppression test (DST) data were evaluated for a subset of 209 GTP subjects. SKA2 methylation interacted with CTQ scores to predict lifetime suicide attempt in saliva and blood with areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.76 and 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.92, P = 0.003, and CI: 0.65-0.78, P suicidal behaviors and PTSD through dysregulation of the HPA axis in response to stress.

  16. Circadian variation of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase activity in swine liver and ileum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, D H; Kim, D N; Lee, K T; Reiner, J M; Thomas, W A

    1981-07-01

    The temporal variation of HMG-CoA reductase activity in the liver and intestine of swine was investigated. The thin-layer chromatographic method widely used in the assay of the reductase was successfully applied to the porcine enzymes. Parallel circadian rhythms were demonstrated in both hepatic and ileal reductases from mash-fed animals. Peak activity occurred approximately 6 hr after feeding, 2.7-fold over the basal level in the liver, and 1.6-fold in the ileum. A milk-cholesterol diet caused a marked depression of both rhythms (90% in liver, 50% in ileum); however, the hourly variation in activity persisted in both organs. Cholestyramine was found to elevate hepatic activity (2.7-fold throughout the rhythm) without affecting that of the intestine. Clofibrate had no effect on either enzyme at any time during the cycle despite a 34% reduction in serum cholesterol concentrations.

  17. Development of Preparatory Activity Indexed by the Contingent Negative Variation in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Angelica B.; Digiacomo, Marcia R.; Meneres, Susana; Trigo, Eva; Gomez, Carlos M.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The present study investigated the effect of age on task-specific preparatory activation induced by a spatial cue using the central cue Posner's paradigm. The behavioral responses and the contingent negative variation (CNV) generated between S1 (the warning stimulus) and S2 (the imperative stimulus) were compared between 16 healthy…

  18. Development of Preparatory Activity Indexed by the Contingent Negative Variation in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Angelica B.; Digiacomo, Marcia R.; Meneres, Susana; Trigo, Eva; Gomez, Carlos M.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The present study investigated the effect of age on task-specific preparatory activation induced by a spatial cue using the central cue Posner's paradigm. The behavioral responses and the contingent negative variation (CNV) generated between S1 (the warning stimulus) and S2 (the imperative stimulus) were compared between 16 healthy…

  19. Variations in reporting of outcomes in randomized trials on diet and physical activity in pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rogozińska, Ewelina; Marlin, Nadine; Yang, Fen

    2017-01-01

    AIM: Trials on diet and physical activity in pregnancy report on various outcomes. We aimed to assess the variations in outcomes reported and their quality in trials on lifestyle interventions in pregnancy. METHODS: We searched major databases without language restrictions for randomized controll...

  20. Decreased dopamine activity predicts relapse in methamphetamine abusers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang G. J.; Wang, G.-J.; Smith, L.; Volkow, N.D.; Telang, F.; Logan, J.; Tomasi, D.; Wong, C.T.; Hoffman, W.; Jayne, M.; Alia-Klein, N.; Thanos, P.; Fowler, J.S.

    2011-01-20

    Studies in methamphetamine (METH) abusers showed that the decreases in brain dopamine (DA) function might recover with protracted detoxification. However, the extent to which striatal DA function in METH predicts recovery has not been evaluated. Here we assessed whether striatal DA activity in METH abusers is associated with clinical outcomes. Brain DA D2 receptor (D2R) availability was measured with positron emission tomography and [{sup 11}C]raclopride in 16 METH abusers, both after placebo and after challenge with 60 mg oral methylphenidate (MPH) (to measure DA release) to assess whether it predicted clinical outcomes. For this purpose, METH abusers were tested within 6 months of last METH use and then followed up for 9 months of abstinence. In parallel, 15 healthy controls were tested. METH abusers had lower D2R availability in caudate than in controls. Both METH abusers and controls showed decreased striatal D2R availability after MPH and these decreases were smaller in METH than in controls in left putamen. The six METH abusers who relapsed during the follow-up period had lower D2R availability in dorsal striatum than in controls, and had no D2R changes after MPH challenge. The 10 METH abusers who completed detoxification did not differ from controls neither in striatal D2R availability nor in MPH-induced striatal DA changes. These results provide preliminary evidence that low striatal DA function in METH abusers is associated with a greater likelihood of relapse during treatment. Detection of the extent of DA dysfunction may be helpful in predicting therapeutic outcomes.

  1. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

  2. Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Vleck, Carol M; Otis, David L

    2009-10-01

    Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10-15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

  3. A hybrid land use regression/AERMOD model for predicting intra-urban variation in PM2.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michanowicz, Drew R.; Shmool, Jessie L. C.; Tunno, Brett J.; Tripathy, Sheila; Gillooly, Sara; Kinnee, Ellen; Clougherty, Jane E.

    2016-04-01

    Characterizing near-source spatio-temporal variation is a long -standing challenge in air pollution epidemiology, and common intra-urban modeling approaches [e.g., land use regression (LUR)], do not account for short-term meteorological variation. Atmospheric dispersion modeling approaches, such as AERMOD, can account for near-source pollutant behavior by capturing source-meteorological interactions, but requires external validation and resolved background concentrations. In this study, we integrate AERMOD-based predictions for source-specific fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations into LUR models derived from total ambient PM2.5 measured at 36 unique sites selected to represent different source and elevation profiles, during summer and winter, 2012-2013 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (PA). We modeled PM2.5 emissions from 207 local stationary sources in AERMOD, utilizing the monitoring locations as receptors, and hourly meteorological information matching each sampling period. Finally, we compare results of the integrated LUR/AERMOD hybrid model to those of the AERMOD + background and standard LUR models, at the full domain scale and within a 5 km2 sub-domain surrounding a large industrial facility. The hybrid model improved out-of-sample prediction accuracy by 2-10% over LUR alone, though performance differed by season, in part due to within-season temporal variability. We found differences up to 10 μg/m3 in predicted concentrations, and observed the largest differences within the industrial sub-domain. LUR underestimated concentrations from 500 to 2500 m downwind of major sources. The hybrid modeling approach we developed may help to improve intra-urban exposure estimates, particularly in regions of large industrial sources, sharp elevation gradients, or complex meteorology (e.g., frequent inversion events), such as Pittsburgh, PA. More broadly, the approach may inform the development of spatio-temporal modeling frameworks for air pollution exposure assessment for

  4. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located...

  5. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Y. Wang; Zhu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe b...

  6. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Y. Wang; Zhu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinghe basin, located in ...

  7. Solubility Prediction of Active Pharmaceutical Compounds with the UNIFAC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouar, Abderrahim; Benmessaoud, Ibtissem; Koutchoukali, Ouahiba; Koutchoukali, Mohamed Salah

    2016-03-01

    The crystallization from solution of an active pharmaceutical ingredient requires the knowledge of the solubility in the entire temperature range investigated during the process. However, during the development of a new active ingredient, these data are missing. Its experimental determination is possible, but tedious. UNIFAC Group contribution method Fredenslund et al. (Vapor-liquid equilibria using UNIFAC: a group contribution method, 1977; AIChE J 21:1086, 1975) can be used to predict this physical property. Several modifications on this model have been proposed since its development in 1977, modified UNIFAC of Dortmund Weidlich et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 26:1372, 1987), Gmehling et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 32:178, 1993), Pharma-modified UNIFAC Diedrichs et al. (Evaluation und Erweiterung thermodynamischer Modelle zur Vorhersage von Wirkstofflöslichkeiten, PhD Thesis, 2010), KT-UNIFAC Kang et al. (Ind Eng Chem Res 41:3260, 2002), ldots In this study, we used UNIFAC model by considering the linear temperature dependence of interaction parameters as in Pharma-modified UNIFAC and structural groups as defined by KT-UNIFAC first-order model. More than 100 binary datasets were involved in the estimation of interaction parameters. These new parameters were then used to calculate activity coefficient and solubility of some molecules in various solvents at different temperatures. The model gives better results than those from the original UNIFAC and shows good agreement between the experimental solubility and the calculated one.

  8. Promising prediction of the monsoon trough and its implication for tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaofan; Lu, Riyu; Chen, Guanghua

    2017-07-01

    The monsoon trough (MT) is generally recognized as a feeding ground for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP). In view of the many challenges that remain in current seasonal TC forecasting, it would be a profound benefit to understand the predictability of variations in the MT and the implications of this for the seasonal prediction of TC activity. This study reveals that high predictability of the MT is shown by the current atmosphere-ocean coupled forecasting system, with the correlation coefficient being 0.84 for the model-ensemble prediction with observations from 1960 to 2005. This high predictability arises mainly from the tropical dipole sea surface temperature over the Maritime Continent and tropical Pacific Ocean, which favors convection around the warm pool and further excites the vorticity anomalies over the WNP. It is further found that good knowledge of the MT could provide promising prediction of TC activity over the WNP, including the occurrence and energy of TCs. The findings of this study suggest that coupling between the WNP circulation and tropical ocean acts as an important source of seasonal predictability in the WNP, and highlight the importance of the MT for seasonal prediction of TCs over the WNP.

  9. A variational method for correcting non-systematic errors in numerical weather prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHAO AiMei; XI Shuang; QIU ChongJian

    2009-01-01

    A variational method based on previous numerical forecasts is developed to estimate and correct non-systematic component of numerical weather forecast error. In the method, it is assumed that the error is linearly dependent on some combination of the forecast fields, and three types of forecast combination are applied to identifying the forecasting error: 1) the forecasts at the ending time, 2) the combination of initial fields and the forecasts at the ending time, and 3) the combination of the fore-casts at the ending time and the tendency of the forecast. The Single Value Decomposition (SVD) of the covariance matrix between the forecast and forecasting error is used to obtain the inverse mapping from flow space to the error space during the training period. The background covariance matrix is hereby reduced to a simple diagonal matrix. The method is tested with a shallow-water equation model by introducing two different model errors. The results of error correction for 6, 24 and 48 h forecasts show that the method is effective for improving the quality of the forecast when the forecasting error obviously exceeds the analysis error and it is optimal when the third type of forecast combinations is applied.

  10. A variational method for correcting non-systematic errors in numerical weather prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    A variational method based on previous numerical forecasts is developed to estimate and correct non-systematic component of numerical weather forecast error. In the method, it is assumed that the error is linearly dependent on some combination of the forecast fields, and three types of forecast combination are applied to identifying the forecasting error: 1) the forecasts at the ending time, 2) the combination of initial fields and the forecasts at the ending time, and 3) the combination of the forecasts at the ending time and the tendency of the forecast. The Single Value Decomposition (SVD) of the covariance matrix between the forecast and forecasting error is used to obtain the inverse mapping from flow space to the error space during the training period. The background covariance matrix is hereby reduced to a simple diagonal matrix. The method is tested with a shallow-water equation model by introducing two different model errors. The results of error correction for 6, 24 and 48 h forecasts show that the method is effective for improving the quality of the forecast when the forecasting error obviously exceeds the analysis error and it is optimal when the third type of forecast combinations is applied.

  11. Genotypic and environmental variation in barley limit dextrinase activity and its relation to malt quality

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xu-dong; YANG Juan; ZHANG Guo-ping

    2006-01-01

    Variation in the limit dextrinase activity of barley malt, and the relationships between limit dextrinase activity and malt quality parameters were investigated using eight cultivars grown at seven diverse locations in China for two successive years.Limit dextrinase activity varied with genotype and location, with the levels ranging from 0.245 U/g to 0.980 U/g. The results showed that the variation in limit dextrinase activity was more attributable to the environment (location and year) than to the genotype. The response of limit dextrinase activity to the environment differed markedly among cultivars, and was reflected by large difference in coefficient of variation of cultivars across diverse locations. Regression analysis showed that limit dextrinase activity was negatively correlated with malt viscosity (r=-0.52, P<0.01), positively correlated with Kolbach index (r=0.38,P<0.01) and malt extract (r=0.30, P<0.05), but had no significant correlation with malt protein content and diastatic power.

  12. Springback prediction of titanium tube bending considering Bauschinger effect and Young's modulus variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, J.; Yang, H.; Li, H.; Tao, Z. J.; Li, G. J.

    2016-08-01

    High strength titanium bent tubes present promising usages in advanced aircraft and spacecraft to achieve lightweight and improve overall performance. However, the high ratio of yield strength to Young's modulus results in significant springback in bending, which limits their forming accuracy. In this work, the Bauschinger effect and nonlinear unloading behavior of high strength Ti-3Al-2.5V tube are experimentally investigated. Then, to describe such behaviors, the Yoshida-Uemori (Y-U) two-surface hardening model and Chord unloading model are introduced into the elastoplastic constitutive framework and numerically implemented. Taking rotary draw (RDB) bending as a case, the springback angles are predicted and analyzed by comparison with the experimental results.

  13. Latitudinal variation in carbon storage can help predict changes in swamps affected by global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.; McKee, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Plants may offer our best hope of removing greenhouse gases (gases that contribute to global warming) emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, global warming could change environments so that natural plant communities will either need to shift into cooler climate zones, or become extirpated (Prasad and Iverson, 1999; Crumpacker and others, 2001; Davis and Shaw, 2001). It is impossible to know the future, but studies combining field observation of production and modeling can help us make predictions about what may happen to these wetland communities in the future. Widespread wetland types such as baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps in the southeastern portion of the United States could be especially good at carbon sequestration (amount of CO2 stored by forests) from the atmosphere. They have high levels of production and sometimes store undecomposed dead plant material in wet conditions with low oxygen, thus keeping gases stored that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere (fig. 1). To study the ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon, our project has taken two approaches. The first analysis looked at published data to develop an idea (hypothesis) of how production levels change across a temperature gradient in the baldcypress region (published data study). The second study tested this idea by comparing production levels across a latitudinal range by using swamps in similar field conditions (ongoing carbon storage study). These studies will help us make predictions about the future ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon in soil and plant biomass, as well as the ability of these forests to shift northward with global warming.

  14. Predicting the unpredictable: Critical analysis and practical implications of predictive anticipatory activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia eMossbridge

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A recent meta-analysis of experiments from seven independent laboratories (n=26 published since 1978 indicates that the human body can apparently detect randomly delivered stimuli occurring 1-10 seconds in the future (Mossbridge, Tressoldi, & Utts, 2012. The key observation in these studies is that human physiology appears to be able to distinguish between unpredictable dichotomous future stimuli, such as emotional vs. neutral images or sound vs. silence. This phenomenon has been called presentiment (as in feeling the future. In this paper we call it predictive anticipatory activity or PAA. The phenomenon is predictive because it can distinguish between upcoming stimuli; it is anticipatory because the physiological changes occur before a future event; and it is an activity because it involves changes in the cardiopulmonary, skin, and/or nervous systems. PAA is an unconscious phenomenon that seems to be a time-reversed reflection of the usual physiological response to a stimulus. It appears to resemble precognition (consciously knowing something is going to happen before it does, but PAA specifically refers to unconscious physiological reactions as opposed to conscious premonitions. Though it is possible that PAA underlies the conscious experience of precognition, experiments testing this idea have not produced clear results. The first part of this paper reviews the evidence for PAA and examines the two most difficult challenges for obtaining valid evidence for it: expectation bias and multiple analyses. The second part speculates on possible mechanisms and the theoretical implications of PAA for understanding physiology and consciousness. The third part examines potential practical applications.

  15. Body morphology, energy stores, and muscle enzyme activity explain cricket acoustic mate attraction signaling variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian R Thomson

    Full Text Available High mating success in animals is often dependent on males signalling attractively with high effort. Since males should be selected to maximize their reproductive success, female preferences for these traits should result in minimal signal variation persisting in the population. However, extensive signal variation persists. The genic capture hypothesis proposes genetic variation persists because fitness-conferring traits depend on an individual's basic processes, including underlying physiological, morphological, and biochemical traits, which are themselves genetically variable. To explore the traits underlying signal variation, we quantified among-male differences in signalling, morphology, energy stores, and the activities of key enzymes associated with signalling muscle metabolism in two species of crickets, Gryllus assimilis (chirper: 20 pulses/chirp. Chirping G. assimilis primarily fuelled signalling with carbohydrate metabolism: smaller individuals and individuals with increased thoracic glycogen stores signalled for mates with greater effort; individuals with greater glycogen phosphorylase activity produced more attractive mating signals. Conversely, the more energetic trilling G. texensis fuelled signalling with both lipid and carbohydrate metabolism: individuals with increased β-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase activity and increased thoracic free carbohydrate content signalled for mates with greater effort; individuals with higher thoracic and abdominal carbohydrate content and higher abdominal lipid stores produced more attractive signals. Our findings suggest variation in male reproductive success may be driven by hidden physiological trade-offs that affect the ability to uptake, retain, and use essential nutrients, although the results remain correlational in nature. Our findings indicate that a physiological perspective may help us to understand some of the causes of variation in behaviour.

  16. High biological variation of serum hyaluronic acid and Hepascore, a biochemical marker model for the prediction of liver fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Enrico; Adams, Leon A; Ching, Helena L; Bulsara, Max; MacQuillan, Gerry C; Jeffrey, Gary P

    2013-05-01

    Serum hyaluronic acid and biochemical models which require hyaluronic acid analysis are commonly used as predictors of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver disease, however biological variation data for hyaluronic acid are deficient. Four serial serum samples were obtained at weekly intervals from healthy volunteers and patients with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C and non- alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD; 20 in each group). The within-individual week-to-week variation (CVI) and reference change values for hyaluronic acid, α₂-macroglobulin and Hepascore were obtained. Hepascore is calculated from hyaluronic acid, α2-macroglobulin, bilirubin and γ-glutamyltransferase activity. Hyaluronic acid displayed large within-individual variation, the CVI values were 62% in healthy subjects, 38% in hepatitis C, 37% in hepatitis B and 36% in NAFLD patients. Hepascore CVIs were 43% in healthy subjects, 24% in hepatitis C, 28% in hepatitis B and 39% in NAFLD patients. α₂-Macroglobulin was much less variable with CVIs ranging from 4.4% to 7.6%. Bland-Altman plots of week-to-week variations showed rates of significant disagreement for samples collected in any 2 successive weeks varied from 5% in NAFLD patients to 8.3% in healthy subjects. When using non-fasting serum samples, hyaluronic acid and to a lesser extent, the Hepascore model display large within-individual variations in both health and chronic liver disease. This information is critical for interpreting the significance of both single measurements and changes in serial measurements.

  17. "Does short-term variation in fetal heart rate predict fetal acidaemia?" A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapaya, Habiba; Jacques, Richard; Rahaim, Nadia; Anumba, Dilly

    2016-12-01

    To evaluate the association of short-term variation (STV) of the fetal heart rate in predicting fetal acidaemia at birth. The search strategy employed searching of electronic databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) and reference lists of relevant studies. Data were extracted from studies, adhering strictly to the following criteria: singleton pregnancy at ≥24 weeks' gestation, computerized CTG (index test) and calculation of STV before delivery. The outcome measure was arterial pH assessed in cord blood obtained at birth. Meta-analysis showed moderate accuracy of STV in predicting fetal acidaemia with a sensitivity of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.45-0.68), specificity of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69-0.89), positive likelihood ratio of 3.14 (95% CI: 2.13-4.63) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.58, (95% CI: 0.46-0.72). However, in intra-uterine growth restricted fetuses, a small improvement in detecting acidaemia was observed; with a sensitivity of 0.63 (95% CI: 0.49-0.75) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.50 (95% CI: 0.31-0.80). STV appears to be a moderate predictor for fetal acidaemia. However, its usefulness as a stand-alone test in predicting acidaemia in clinical setting remains to be determined.

  18. Variation in radon exhalation from the ground on the active fault in Kobe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yasuoka, Y.; Shinogi, M. [Kobe Pharmaceutical Univ., Kobe, Hyogo (Japan)

    1998-12-31

    Since 27 January 1997, the measurements of radon (Rn-222) exhaled from the ground have been made continuously by the use of PICO-RAD detector (Packard instrument Co.) at monitoring stations on Ashiya active fault. The fault may have been slipped by the Kobe earthquake (magnitude 7.2, 17 January 1995). The variation of relative radon exhalation on the fault was large. We guessed the large variation of relative radon exhalation on the fault was caused by not only the influence of meteorology but also the influence of other factors. (author)

  19. Variation in the OC locus of Acinetobacter baumannii genomes predicts extensive structural diversity in the lipooligosaccharide.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna J Kenyon

    Full Text Available Lipooligosaccharide (LOS is a complex surface structure that is linked to many pathogenic properties of Acinetobacter baumannii. In A. baumannii, the genes responsible for the synthesis of the outer core (OC component of the LOS are located between ilvE and aspS. The content of the OC locus is usually variable within a species, and examination of 6 complete and 227 draft A. baumannii genome sequences available in GenBank non-redundant and Whole Genome Shotgun databases revealed nine distinct new types, OCL4-OCL12, in addition to the three known ones. The twelve gene clusters fell into two distinct groups, designated Group A and Group B, based on similarities in the genes present. OCL6 (Group B was unique in that it included genes for the synthesis of L-Rhamnosep. Genetic exchange of the different configurations between strains has occurred as some OC forms were found in several different sequence types (STs. OCL1 (Group A was the most widely distributed being present in 18 STs, and OCL6 was found in 16 STs. Variation within clones was also observed, with more than one OC locus type found in the two globally disseminated clones, GC1 and GC2, that include the majority of multiply antibiotic resistant isolates. OCL1 was the most abundant gene cluster in both GC1 and GC2 genomes but GC1 isolates also carried OCL2, OCL3 or OCL5, and OCL3 was also present in GC2. As replacement of the OC locus in the major global clones indicates the presence of sub-lineages, a PCR typing scheme was developed to rapidly distinguish Group A and Group B types, and to distinguish the specific forms found in GC1 and GC2 isolates.

  20. Medial Temporal Lobe Activity Predicts Successful Relational Memory Binding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2009-01-01

    Previous neuropsychological findings have implicated medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures in retaining object-location relations over the course of short delays, but MTL effects have not always been reported in neuroimaging investigations with similar short-term memory requirements. Here, we used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to test the hypothesis that the hippocampus and related MTL structures support accurate retention of relational memory representations, even across short delays. On every trial, four objects were presented, each in one of nine possible locations of a three-dimensional grid. Participants were to mentally rotate the grid and then maintain the rotated representation in anticipation of a test stimulus: a rendering of the grid, rotated 90° from the original viewpoint. The test stimulus was either a “match” display, in which object-location relations were intact, or a “mismatch” display, in which one object occupied a new, previously unfilled location (mismatch position), or two objects had swapped locations (mismatch swap). Encoding phase activation in anterior and posterior regions of the left hippocampus, and in bilateral perirhinal cortex, predicted subsequent accuracy on the short-term memory decision, as did bilateral posterior hippocampal activity after the test stimulus. Notably, activation in these posterior hippocampal regions was also sensitive to the degree to which object-location bindings were preserved in the test stimulus; activation was greatest for match displays, followed by mismatch-position displays, and finally mismatch-swap displays. These results indicate that the hippocampus and related MTL structures contribute to successful encoding and retrieval of relational information in visual short-term memory. PMID:18171929

  1. Periodic Halpha variations in GL 581: Further evidence for an activity origin to GL 581d

    CERN Document Server

    Hatzes, Artie P

    2015-01-01

    Radial velocity measurements showed evidence that the M dwarf GL 581 might host a planet, GL 581d, in the so-called "habitable zone" of the star. A study of Halpha in GL 581 demonstrated that changes in this activity indicator correlated with radial velocity variations attributed to GL 581d. An exopplanet that was important for studies of planet habitability may be an artifact of stellar activity. Previous investigations analyzing the same activity data have reached different conclusions regarding the existence of GL 581d. We therfore investigated the Halpha variations for GL 581 to assess the nature of the radial velocity variations attributed to the possible planet GL 581d. We performed a Fourier analysis of the published Halpha measurements for GL 581d using a so-called pre-whitening process to isolate the variations at the orbital frequency of GL 581d. The frequency analysis yields five significant frequencies, one of which is associated with the 66.7 d orbital period of the presumed planet Gl 581d. The H...

  2. Origins of the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in 1954 and 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, E.; Svalgaard, L.; Ling, A.

    2004-01-01

    . We investigate the cause of the unusually strong semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity observed in the solar minimum years of 1954 and 1996. For 1996 we separate the contributions of the three classical modulation mechanisms (axial, equinoctial, and Russell-McPherron) to the six-month wave in the index and find that all three contribute about equally. This is in contrast to the longer run of geomagnetic activity (1868-1998) over which the equinoctial effect accounts for 70% of the semiannual variation. For both 1954 and 1996, we show that the Russell-McPherron effect was enhanced by the Rosenberg-Coleman effect (an axial polarity effect) which increased the amount of the negative (toward Sun) [positive (away from Sun)] polarity field observed during the first [second] half of the year; such fields yield a southward component in GSM coordinates. Because this favourable condition occurs only for alternate solar cycles, the marked semiannual variation in 1954 and 1996 is a manifestation of the 22-year cycle of geomagnetic activity. The 11-year evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) also contributes to the strong six-month wave during these years. At solar minimum, the streamer belt at the base of the HCS is located near the solar equator, permitting easier access to high speed streams from polar coronal holes when the Earth is at its highest heliographic latitudes in March and September. Such an axial variation in solar wind speed was observed for 1996 and is inferred for 1954.

  3. Brain Monoamine Oxidase-A Activity Predicts Trait Aggression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alia-Klein, Nelly; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Kriplani, Aarti; Logan, Jean; Tomasi, Dardo; Williams, Benjamin; Telang, Frank; Shumay, Elena; Biegon, Anat; Craig, Ian W.; Henn, Fritz; Wang, Gene-Jack; Volkow, Nora D.; Fowler, Joanna S.

    2008-01-01

    The genetic deletion of monoamine oxidase A (MAO A, an enzyme which breaks down the monoamine neurotransmitters norepinephrine, serotonin and dopamine) produces aggressive phenotypes across species. Therefore, a common polymorphism in the MAO A gene (MAOA, MIM 309850, referred to as high or low based on transcription in non-neuronal cells) has been investigated in a number of externalizing behavioral and clinical phenotypes. These studies provide evidence linking the low MAOA genotype and violent behavior but only through interaction with severe environmental stressors during childhood. Here, we hypothesized that in healthy adult males the gene product of MAO A in the brain, rather than the gene per se, would be associated with regulating the concentration of brain amines involved in trait aggression. Brain MAO A activity was measured in-vivo in healthy non-smoking men with positron emission tomography using a radioligand specific for MAO A (clorgyline labeled with carbon 11). Trait aggression was measured with the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ). Here we report for the first time that brain MAO A correlates inversely with the MPQ trait measure of aggression (but not with other personality traits) such that the lower the MAO A activity in cortical and subcortical brain regions the higher the self-reported aggression (in both MAOA genotype groups) contributing to more than a third of the variability. Since trait aggression is a measure used to predict antisocial behavior, these results underscore the relevance of MAO A as a neurochemical substrate of aberrant aggression. PMID:18463263

  4. Children's unique experience of depression: Using a developmental approach to predict variation in symptomatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ginicola Misty M

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current clinical knowledge suggests that children can have different types of depressive symptoms (irritability and aggression, but presents no theoretical basis for these differences. Using a developmental approach, the present study sought to test the relationship between developmental level (mental age and expression of depressive symptoms. The primary hypothesis was that as children's mental age increased, so would the number of internalizing symptoms present. Methods Participants were 252 psychiatric inpatients aged 4 to 16 with a diagnosed depressive disorder. All children were diagnosed by trained clinicians using DSM criteria. Patients were predominantly male (61% with varied ethnic backgrounds (Caucasian 54%; African American 22%; Hispanic 19%; Other 5%. Children were given an IQ test (KBIT or WISC while within the hospital. Mental age was calculated by using the child's IQ score and chronological age. Four trained raters reviewed children's records for depressive symptoms as defined by the DSM-IV TR. Additionally, a ratio score was calculated to indicate the number of internalizing symptoms to total symptoms. Results Mental age positively correlated (r = .51 with an internalizing total symptom ratio score and delineated between several individual symptoms. Mental age also predicted comorbidity with anxiety and conduct disorders. Children of a low mental age were more likely to be comorbid with conduct disorders, whereas children with a higher mental age presented more often with anxiety disorders. Gender was independently related to depressive symptoms, but minority status interacted with mental age. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that a developmental approach is useful in understanding children's depressive symptoms and has implications for both diagnosis and treatment of depression. If children experience depression differently, it follows that treatment options may also differ from that which is

  5. Contribution of solar radiation and geomagnetic activity to global structure of 27-day variation of ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yibin; Zhai, Changzhi; Kong, Jian; Liu, Lei

    2017-04-01

    Twenty-seven-day variation caused by solar rotation is one of the main periodic effects of solar radiation influence on the ionosphere, and there have been many studies on this periodicity using peak electron density N_{mF2} and solar radio flux index F10.7. In this paper, the global electron content (GEC) and observation of Solar EUV Monitor (SEM) represent the whole ionosphere and solar EUV flux, respectively, to investigate the 27-day variation. The 27-day period components of indices (GEC_{27}, SEM_{27}, F10.7_{27}, Ap_{27}) are obtained using Chebyshev band-pass filter. The comparison of regression results indicates that the index SEM has higher coherence than F10.7 with 27-day variation of the ionosphere. The regression coefficients of SEM_{27 } varied from 0.6 to 1.4 and the coefficients of Ap_{27} varied from - 0.6 to 0.3, which suggests that EUV radiation seasonal variations are the primary driver for the 27-day variations of the ionosphere for most periods. TEC map grid points on three meridians where IGS stations are dense are selected for regression, and the results show that the contribution of solar EUV radiation is positive at all geomagnetic latitudes and larger than geomagnetic activity in most latitudes. The contribution of geomagnetic activity is negative at high geomagnetic latitude, increasing with decreasing geomagnetic latitudes, and positive at low geomagnetic latitudes. The global structure of 27-day variation of ionosphere is presented and demonstrates that there are two zonal anomaly regions along with the geomagnetic latitudes lines and two peaks in the north of Southeast Asia and the Middle Pacific where TEC_{27} magnitude values are notably larger than elsewhere along zonal anomaly regions.

  6. The prediction of induced activity levels in and around NIMROD

    CERN Document Server

    Hack, R C

    1973-01-01

    Comparisons are reported between measured and predicted levels of induced radioactivity for a number of irradiation conditions. Good agreement was found between experimental measurements and fairly simple methods of prediction developed at CERN.

  7. Chaos in balance: non-linear measures of postural control predict individual variations in visual illusions of motion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Apthorp

    Full Text Available Visually-induced illusions of self-motion (vection can be compelling for some people, but they are subject to large individual variations in strength. Do these variations depend, at least in part, on the extent to which people rely on vision to maintain their postural stability? We investigated by comparing physical posture measures to subjective vection ratings. Using a Bertec balance plate in a brightly-lit room, we measured 13 participants' excursions of the centre of foot pressure (CoP over a 60-second period with eyes open and with eyes closed during quiet stance. Subsequently, we collected vection strength ratings for large optic flow displays while seated, using both verbal ratings and online throttle measures. We also collected measures of postural sway (changes in anterior-posterior CoP in response to the same visual motion stimuli while standing on the plate. The magnitude of standing sway in response to expanding optic flow (in comparison to blank fixation periods was predictive of both verbal and throttle measures for seated vection. In addition, the ratio between eyes-open and eyes-closed CoP excursions during quiet stance (using the area of postural sway significantly predicted seated vection for both measures. Interestingly, these relationships were weaker for contracting optic flow displays, though these produced both stronger vection and more sway. Next we used a non-linear analysis (recurrence quantification analysis, RQA of the fluctuations in anterior-posterior position during quiet stance (both with eyes closed and eyes open; this was a much stronger predictor of seated vection for both expanding and contracting stimuli. Given the complex multisensory integration involved in postural control, our study adds to the growing evidence that non-linear measures drawn from complexity theory may provide a more informative measure of postural sway than the conventional linear measures.

  8. Chaos in balance: non-linear measures of postural control predict individual variations in visual illusions of motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apthorp, Deborah; Nagle, Fintan; Palmisano, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Visually-induced illusions of self-motion (vection) can be compelling for some people, but they are subject to large individual variations in strength. Do these variations depend, at least in part, on the extent to which people rely on vision to maintain their postural stability? We investigated by comparing physical posture measures to subjective vection ratings. Using a Bertec balance plate in a brightly-lit room, we measured 13 participants' excursions of the centre of foot pressure (CoP) over a 60-second period with eyes open and with eyes closed during quiet stance. Subsequently, we collected vection strength ratings for large optic flow displays while seated, using both verbal ratings and online throttle measures. We also collected measures of postural sway (changes in anterior-posterior CoP) in response to the same visual motion stimuli while standing on the plate. The magnitude of standing sway in response to expanding optic flow (in comparison to blank fixation periods) was predictive of both verbal and throttle measures for seated vection. In addition, the ratio between eyes-open and eyes-closed CoP excursions during quiet stance (using the area of postural sway) significantly predicted seated vection for both measures. Interestingly, these relationships were weaker for contracting optic flow displays, though these produced both stronger vection and more sway. Next we used a non-linear analysis (recurrence quantification analysis, RQA) of the fluctuations in anterior-posterior position during quiet stance (both with eyes closed and eyes open); this was a much stronger predictor of seated vection for both expanding and contracting stimuli. Given the complex multisensory integration involved in postural control, our study adds to the growing evidence that non-linear measures drawn from complexity theory may provide a more informative measure of postural sway than the conventional linear measures.

  9. The health of a nation predicts their mate preferences: cross-cultural variation in women's preferences for masculinized male faces

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.; Crawford, John R.; Welling, Lisa L. M.; Little, Anthony C.

    2010-01-01

    Recent formulations of sexual selection theory emphasize how mate choice can be affected by environmental factors, such as predation risk and resource quality. Women vary greatly in the extent to which they prefer male masculinity and this variation is hypothesized to reflect differences in how women resolve the trade-off between the costs (e.g. low investment) and benefits (e.g. healthy offspring) associated with choosing a masculine partner. A strong prediction of this trade-off theory is that women's masculinity preferences will be stronger in cultures where poor health is particularly harmful to survival. We investigated the relationship between women's preferences for male facial masculinity and a health index derived from World Health Organization statistics for mortality rates, life expectancies and the impact of communicable disease. Across 30 countries, masculinity preference increased as health decreased. This relationship was independent of cross-cultural differences in wealth or women's mating strategies. These findings show non-arbitrary cross-cultural differences in facial attractiveness judgements and demonstrate the use of trade-off theory for investigating cross-cultural variation in women's mate preferences. PMID:20236978

  10. Variations in linear body measurements and establishing prediction equations for live weight of indigenous sheep populations of southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aberra Melesse

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to describe variations in morphometrical traits and determine the usefulness of some linear body measurements in predicting body weight (BW of indigenous sheep populations reared in KmabataTembaro-Hadiya (KTH, Wolaita (WOL, Gamogofa (GAG, Gurage-Silti (GUS and Sidama-Gedeo (SIG zones of Southern Region of Ethiopia. Data were obtained from 2712 sheep that were drawn from 928 households. The BW and height at withers (HW in WOL and SIG ewes aged 1-2 years was significantly high compared to others. High chest girth (CG values were obtained from SIG, GAG, and GUS ewes. Ewes of SIG, WOL, KTH and GAG had significantly high body length (BL. Significantly high CG values were obtained from SIG and GAG ewes. Rams of WOL, KTH and GUS had significantly high BW, BL and HW. Body weight of KTH, WOL and GAG ewes aged 1 year and above 2 years and rams is better estimated using CG alone. However, the best predictor for KTH, WOL and GAG ewes aged 1-2 years old were CG, HW and BL. In conclusion, CG was the primary variable to explain most of the variations in BW and can be used as reliable predictor for studied sheep types. SIG and WOL sheep had a relatively large body frame and emphasis may be given for their improvement.

  11. An improved model for predicting performance of finned tube heat exchanger under frosting condition, with frost thickness variation along fin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tso, C.P. [Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama, Melaka (Malaysia). Faculty of Engineering and Technology; Cheng, Y.C.; Lai, A.C.K. [Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (Singapore). School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

    2006-01-15

    Frost accumulation on a heat exchanger, a direct result of combined heat and mass transfer between the moist air flowing across a cold surface, causes heat transfer performance degradation due to the insulating effect of frost layer and the coil blockage as the frost grows. The complex geometry of finned tube heat exchangers leads to uneven wall and air temperature distribution inside the coil, and causes variations of frost growth rate and densification along the coil. In this study, a general distributed model with frost formation was developed. The equations for finned tube heat exchanger were derived in non-steady-state manner and quasi-steady state in the frost model. In order to make the model more realistic, the variation of frost along fin due to uneven temperature distribution was included. The presented model is able to predict the dynamic behavior of an air cooler both under non-frost and frost condition. Comparisons were made based on the frost mass accumulation, pressure drop across coil and energy transfer coefficient, and results were found to agree well with reported experimental results. (author)

  12. Experimental and analytical study of secondary path variations in active engine mounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausberg, Fabian; Scheiblegger, Christian; Pfeffer, Peter; Plöchl, Manfred; Hecker, Simon; Rupp, Markus

    2015-03-01

    Active engine mounts (AEMs) provide an effective solution to further improve the acoustic and vibrational comfort of passenger cars. Typically, adaptive feedforward control algorithms, e.g., the filtered-x-least-mean-squares (FxLMS) algorithm, are applied to cancel disturbing engine vibrations. These algorithms require an accurate estimate of the AEM active dynamic characteristics, also known as the secondary path, in order to guarantee control performance and stability. This paper focuses on the experimental and theoretical study of secondary path variations in AEMs. The impact of three major influences, namely nonlinearity, change of preload and component temperature, on the AEM active dynamic characteristics is experimentally analyzed. The obtained test results are theoretically investigated with a linear AEM model which incorporates an appropriate description for elastomeric components. A special experimental set-up extends the model validation of the active dynamic characteristics to higher frequencies up to 400 Hz. The theoretical and experimental results show that significant secondary path variations are merely observed in the frequency range of the AEM actuator's resonance frequency. These variations mainly result from the change of the component temperature. As the stability of the algorithm is primarily affected by the actuator's resonance frequency, the findings of this paper facilitate the design of AEMs with simpler adaptive feedforward algorithms. From a practical point of view it may further be concluded that algorithmic countermeasures against instability are only necessary in the frequency range of the AEM actuator's resonance frequency.

  13. Decadal variation of ocean heat content and tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sankar Nath; S D Kotal; P K Kundu

    2016-02-01

    The upper ocean heat content up to 700 m depth (OHC700) is an important climatic parameter required for atmospheric and oceanographic studies like a cyclone. In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity and OHC700 over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the post-monsoon season (October–December) during 1955–2013 periods. The sea-surface temperature (SST), geopotential height at 500 hPa, low-level vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, middle tropospheric humidity at 500 hPa and outgoing long-wave radiation are also being studied using seasonal mean data. The results show a significant inter-decadal variation during 1955–2013, with two distinct decadal periods: active decadal period (ADP) (1955–1988) and inactive decadal period (IDP) (1989–2013). The anomalies of these parameters are opposite in phase for two periods. It is found that the large scale atmospheric features and oceanic parameters have significant inter-decadal variability, but frequency of the tropical cyclone is attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions rather than the variation of oceanic parameters OHC700 and SSTs during the post-monsoon season.

  14. p-mode frequency variation in relation to global solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Kurt T.; Brown, Timothy M.

    1993-01-01

    We show that p-mode frequency variations correlate remarkably well with the variations of six solar activity indices over a 6 yr period from 1984 October to 1990 November, including both the large variation from solar minimum to solar maximum and smaller variations observed over approximately 1 month intervals during solar maximum. The quality of correlation as seen visually and as measured by two statistical tests differs significantly among the six activity indices, and we briefly speculate on possible reasons for this. Observations used in this study come from the HAO/NSO Fourier tachometer (FTACH) and include the spherical harmonic degree range l greater than 20 and equal to 60 or less and frequency range between 2600 and 3200 micro-Hz. The data are divided into 18 separate epochs with time string duration ranging from a minimum of 18 days to a maximum of 45 days. We have particularly good coverage during the early part of solar maximum of cycle 22.

  15. On the nature of extraversion: variation in conditioned contextual activation of dopamine-facilitated affective, cognitive, and motor processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depue, Richard A; Fu, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Research supports an association between extraversion and dopamine (DA) functioning. DA facilitates incentive motivation and the conditioning and incentive encoding of contexts that predict reward. Therefore, we assessed whether extraversion is related to the efficacy of acquiring conditioned contextual facilitation of three processes that are dependent on DA: motor velocity, positive affect, and visuospatial working memory. We exposed high and low extraverts to three days of association of drug reward (methylphenidate, MP) with a particular laboratory context (Paired group), a test day of conditioning, and three days of extinction in the same laboratory. A Placebo group and an Unpaired group (that had MP in a different laboratory context) served as controls. Conditioned contextual facilitation was assessed by (i) presenting video clips that varied in their pairing with drug and laboratory context and in inherent incentive value, and (ii) measuring increases from day 1 to Test day on the three processes above. Results showed acquisition of conditioned contextual facilitation across all measures to video clips that had been paired with drug and laboratory context in the Paired high extraverts, but no conditioning in the Paired low extraverts (nor in either of the control groups). Increases in the Paired high extraverts were correlated across the three measures. Also, conditioned facilitation was evident on the first day of extinction in Paired high extraverts, despite the absence of the unconditioned effects of MP. By the last day of extinction, responding returned to day 1 levels. The findings suggest that extraversion is associated with variation in the acquisition of contexts that predict reward. Over time, this variation may lead to differences in the breadth of networks of conditioned contexts. Thus, individual differences in extraversion may be maintained by activation of differentially encoded central representations of incentive contexts that predict reward.

  16. On the Nature of Extraversion: Variation in Conditioned Contextual Activation of Dopamine-Facilitated Affective, Cognitive, and Motor Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard allen Depue

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Research supports an association between extraversion and dopamine (DA functioning. DA facilitates incentive motivation and the conditioning and incentive encoding of contexts that predict reward. Therefore, we assessed whether extraversion is related to the efficacy of acquiring conditioned contextual facilitation of three processes that are dependent on DA: motor velocity, positive affect, and visuospatial working memory. We exposed high and low extraverts to three days of association of drug reward (methylphenidate, MP with a particular laboratory context (Paired group, a test day of conditioning, and three days of extinction in the same laboratory. A Placebo group and an Unpaired group (that had MP in a different laboratory context served as controls. Conditioned contextual facilitation was assessed by (i presenting video clips that varied in their pairing with drug and laboratory context and in inherent incentive value, and (ii measuring increases from day 1 to Test day on the three processes above. Results showed acquisition of conditioned contextual facilitation across all measures to video clips that had been paired with drug and laboratory context in the Paired high extraverts, but no conditioning in the Paired low extraverts (nor in either of the control groups. Increases in the Paired high extraverts were correlated across the three measures. Also, conditioned facilitation was evident on the first day of extinction in Paired high extraverts, despite the absence of the unconditioned effects of MP. By the last day of extinction, responding returned to day 1 levels. The findings suggest that extraversion is associated with variation in the acquisition of contexts that predict reward. Over time, this variation may lead to differences in the breadth of networks of conditioned contexts. Thus, individual differences in extraversion may be maintained by activation of differentially encoded central representations of incentive contexts that

  17. Esterase in imported fire ants, Solenopsis invicta and S. richteri (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): activity, kinetics and variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J; Rashid, T; Feng, G

    2014-11-19

    Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri are two closely related invasive ants native to South America. Despite their similarity in biology and behavior, S. invicta is a more successful invasive species. Toxic tolerance has been found to be important to the success of some invasive species. Esterases play a crucial role in toxic tolerance of insects. Hence, we hypothesized that the more invasive S. invicta would have a higher esterase activity than S. richteri. Esterase activities were measured for workers and male and female alates of both ant species using α-naphthyl acetate and β-naphthyl acetate as substrates. Esterase activities in S. invicta were always significantly higher than those in S. richteri supporting our hypothesis. In S. invicta, male alates had the highest esterase activities followed by workers then female alates for both substrates. In S. richetri, for α-naphthyl acetate, male alates had the highest activity followed by female alates then workers, while for β-naphthyl acetate, female alates had the highest activity followed by male alates then workers. For workers, S. richteri showed significantly higher levels of variation about the mean esterase activity than S. invicta. However, S. invicta showed significantly higher levels of variation in both female and male alates.

  18. Spatial variation and inconsistency between estimates of onset of muscle activation from EMG and ultrasound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Angela V; Botter, Alberto; Vieira, Taian Martins; Peolsson, Anneli; Petzke, Frank; Davey, Paul; Falla, Deborah

    2017-02-08

    Delayed onset of muscle activation can be a descriptor of impaired motor control. Activation onset can be estimated from electromyography (EMG)-registered muscle excitation and from ultrasound-registered muscle motion, which enables non-invasive measurements in deep muscles. However, in voluntary activation, EMG- and ultrasound-detected activation onsets may not correspond. To evaluate this, ten healthy men performed isometric elbow flexion at 20% to 70% of their maximal force. Utilising a multi-channel electrode transparent to ultrasound, EMG and M(otion)-mode ultrasound were recorded simultaneously over the biceps brachii muscle. The time intervals between automated and visually estimated activation onsets were correlated with the regional variation of EMG and muscle motion onset, contraction level and speed. Automated and visual onsets indicated variable time intervals between EMG- and motion onset, median (interquartile range) 96 (121) ms and 48 (72) ms, respectively. In 17% (computed analysis) or 23% (visual analysis) of trials, motion onset was detected before local EMG onset. Multi-channel EMG and M-mode ultrasound revealed regional differences in activation onset, which decreased with higher contraction speed (Spearman ρ ≥ 0.45, P explain the high variation of the time intervals between local EMG- and ultrasound-detected activation onset.

  19. Periodic and chaotic psychological stress variations as predicted by a social support buffered response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Richard J.; Gallas, Jason A. C.; Schuldberg, David

    2017-08-01

    Recent work has introduced social dynamic models of people's stress-related processes, some including amelioration of stress symptoms by support from others. The effects of support may be ;direct;, depending only on the level of support, or ;buffering;, depending on the product of the level of support and level of stress. We focus here on the nonlinear buffering term and use a model involving three variables (and 12 control parameters), including stress as perceived by the individual, physical and psychological symptoms, and currently active social support. This model is quantified by a set of three nonlinear differential equations governing its stationary-state stability, temporal evolution (sometimes oscillatory), and how each variable affects the others. Chaos may appear with periodic forcing of an environmental stress parameter. Here we explore this model carefully as the strength and amplitude of this forcing, and an important psychological parameter relating to self-kindling in the stress response, are varied. Three significant observations are made: 1. There exist many complex but orderly regions of periodicity and chaos, 2. there are nested regions of increasing number of peaks per cycle that may cascade to chaos, and 3. there are areas where more than one state, e.g., a period-2 oscillation and chaos, coexist for the same parameters; which one is reached depends on initial conditions.

  20. Wave Prediction Model To Study On The Wave Height Variation In Terengganu Coast Of Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Amalina Abdul Latif

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this study the significant wave height at the Terengganu and the change of wave height at Kuala Terengganu to Merang shoreline were simulated by using the 2D Near-Shore Wave 2D NSW model. The significant wave height by the 2D NSW model at Kuala Terengganu to Merang shoreline from 2008-2012 were simulated. The model was forced by ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast data. The simulated significant wave height by the 2D NSW model at Airport Kuala Terengganu AWAC station was compared with the observed significant wave height. The mean annual significant wave height indicate the higher wave height with average mean value in a range of 1.08-1.10 m in Kuala Terengganu to Batu Rakit area and lower in Merang area with average mean value in a range of 0.74 m. The detailed 5 years simulation period demonstrates that the strong variability of wave height exists during North-East monsoon. The findings of this study could be useful for the erosive calculation shoreline protection and coastal zone management activities.

  1. Bulgarian Geomagnetic Reference Field (BulGRF) for 2015.0 and secular variation prediction model up to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metodiev, Metodi; Trifonova, Petya

    2017-09-01

    The Bulgarian Geomagnetic Reference Field (BulGRF) for 2015.0 epoch and its secular variation model prediction up to 2020.0 is produced and presented in this paper. The main field model is based on the well-known polynomial approximation in latitude and longitude of the geomagnetic field elements. The challenge in our modelling strategy was to update the absolute field geomagnetic data from 1980.0 up to 2015.0 using secular measurements unevenly distributed in time and space. As a result, our model gives a set of six coefficients for the horizontal H, vertical Z, total field F, and declination D elements of the geomagnetic field. The extrapolation of BulGRF to 2020 is based on an autoregressive forecasting of the Panagyurishte observatory annual means. Comparison of the field values predicted by the model with Panagyurishte (PAG) observatory annual mean data and two vector field measurements performed in 2015 shows a close match with IGRF-12 values and some difference with the real (measured) values, which is probably due to the influence of crustal sources. BulGRF proves to be a reliable alternative to the global geomagnetic field models which together with its simplicity makes it a useful tool for reducing magnetic surveys to a common epoch carried out over the Bulgarian territory up to 2020.

  2. Kappa Number Prediction of Acacia melanoxylon Unbleached Kraft Pulps using NIR-PLSR Models with a Narrow Interval of Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António J.A. Santos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A total of 120 Acacia melanoxylon R. Br. (Australian blackwood stem discs, belonging to 20 trees from four sites in Portugal, were used in this study. The samples were kraft pulped under standard identical conditions targeted to a Kappa number of 15. A Near Infrared (NIR partial least squares regression (PLSR model was developed for the Kappa number prediction using 75 pulp samples with a narrow Kappa number variation range of 10 to 17. Very good correlations between NIR spectra of A. melanoxylon pulps and Kappa numbers were obtained. Besides the raw spectra, also pre-processed spectra with ten methods were used for PLS analysis (cross validation with 48 samples, and a test set validation was made with 27 samples. The first derivative spectra in the wavenumber range from 6110 to 5440 cm-1 yielded the best model with a root mean square error of prediction of 0.4 units of Kappa number, a coefficient of determination of 92.1%, and two PLS components, with the ratios of performance to deviation (RPD of 3.6 and zero outliers. The obtained NIR-PLSR model for Kappa number determination is sufficiently accurate to be used in screening programs and in quality control.

  3. Why does working memory capacity predict variation in reading comprehension? On the influence of mind wandering and executive attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McVay, Jennifer C; Kane, Michael J

    2012-05-01

    Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on 3 WMC span tasks, 7 varied reading-comprehension tasks, and 3 attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during 4 different tasks (2 reading, 2 attention-control). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the 4 tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most important, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension.

  4. A Viscoplastic Stress Relaxation Model for Predicting Variations of the Least Principal Stress With Depth in Unconventional Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoback, M. D.; Xu, S.; Rassouli, F.; Ma, X.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper we extend the viscoplastic stress relaxation model of Sone and Zoback (Jour. Petrol. Sci. and Eng., 2014) for predicting variations of least principal stress with stress and its impact on the vertical propagation of hydraulic fractures. Viscoplastic stress relaxation in clay-rich (or diagenetically immature) sedimentary rocks makes the stress field more isotropic. In normal faulting and strike-slip faulting environments, this causes the least principal stress to increase making such formations likely barriers to vertical hydraulic fracture growth. In order to predict the magnitude of viscoplastic stress relaxation in different unconventional formations, we generalize a constitutive law developed from a wide range of creep experiments in our lab over the past several years and apply it to areas of stacked pay in Oklahoma and Texas. Using frac gradients were measured from minifrac and DFIT (Diagnostic Fracture Injection Test) experiments. The viscoplastic model does a good job of explaining vertical hydraulic fracture propagation, as indicated by the distribution of microseismic events recorded during stimulation.

  5. Performance prediction for Grid workflow activities based on features-ranked RBF network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Jie; Duan Rubing; Farrukh Nadeem

    2009-01-01

    Accurate performance prediction of Grid workflow activities can help Grid schedulers map activities to appropriate Grid sites. This paper describes an approach based on features-ranked RBF neural network to predict the performance of Grid workflow activities. Experimental results for two kinds of real world Grid workflow activities are presented to show effectiveness of our approach.

  6. Diurnal variation of B parameters over Havana at low and high solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazo, B.; Savio, S.; Alazo, K.; Calzadilla, A.; Ojeda, A.

    In support of the international effort of determining the best set of parameters to describe the electron density profile in the ionosphere we have analyzed the diurnal variation of B0 and B1 for Havana (23°N; 278°E; Dip 54.6°N; Modip 44.8°N) for low and high solar activity during winter and summertime.

  7. Predictive active disturbance rejection control for processes with time delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qinling; Gao, Zhiqiang

    2014-07-01

    Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) has been shown to be an effective tool in dealing with real world problems of dynamic uncertainties, disturbances, nonlinearities, etc. This paper addresses its existing limitations with plants that have a large transport delay. In particular, to overcome the delay, the extended state observer (ESO) in ADRC is modified to form a predictive ADRC, leading to significant improvements in the transient response and stability characteristics, as shown in extensive simulation studies and hardware-in-the-loop tests, as well as in the frequency response analysis. In this research, it is assumed that the amount of delay is approximately known, as is the approximated model of the plant. Even with such uncharacteristic assumptions for ADRC, the proposed method still exhibits significant improvements in both performance and robustness over the existing methods such as the dead-time compensator based on disturbance observer and the Filtered Smith Predictor, in the context of some well-known problems of chemical reactor and boiler control problems.

  8. Traction force dynamics predict gap formation in activated endothelium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Erik T; van Nieuw Amerongen, Geerten P; van Hinsbergh, Victor W M; Hordijk, Peter L

    2016-09-10

    In many pathological conditions the endothelium becomes activated and dysfunctional, resulting in hyperpermeability and plasma leakage. No specific therapies are available yet to control endothelial barrier function, which is regulated by inter-endothelial junctions and the generation of acto-myosin-based contractile forces in the context of cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions. However, the spatiotemporal distribution and stimulus-induced reorganization of these integral forces remain largely unknown. Traction force microscopy of human endothelial monolayers was used to visualize contractile forces in resting cells and during thrombin-induced hyperpermeability. Simultaneously, information about endothelial monolayer integrity, adherens junctions and cytoskeletal proteins (F-actin) were captured. This revealed a heterogeneous distribution of traction forces, with nuclear areas showing lower and cell-cell junctions higher traction forces than the whole-monolayer average. Moreover, junctional forces were asymmetrically distributed among neighboring cells. Force vector orientation analysis showed a good correlation with the alignment of F-actin and revealed contractile forces in newly formed filopodia and lamellipodia-like protrusions within the monolayer. Finally, unstable areas, showing high force fluctuations within the monolayer were prone to form inter-endothelial gaps upon stimulation with thrombin. To conclude, contractile traction forces are heterogeneously distributed within endothelial monolayers and force instability, rather than force magnitude, predicts the stimulus-induced formation of intercellular gaps. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Electrophysiological correlates of competitor activation predict retrieval-induced forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellerstedt, Robin; Johansson, Mikael

    2014-06-01

    The very act of retrieval modifies the accessibility of memory for knowledge and past events and can also cause forgetting. A prominent theory of such retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) holds that retrieval recruits inhibition to overcome interference from competing memories, rendering these memories inaccessible. The present study tested a fundamental tenet of the inhibitory-control account: The competition-dependence assumption. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants engaged in a competitive retrieval task. Competition levels were manipulated within the retrieval task by varying the cue-item associative strength of competing items. In order to temporally separate ERP correlates of competitor activation and target retrieval, memory was probed with the sequential presentation of 2 cues: A category cue, to reactivate competitors, and a target cue. As predicted by the inhibitory-control account, competitors with strong compared with weak cue-competitor association were more susceptible to forgetting. Furthermore, competition-sensitive ERP modulations, elicited by the category cue, were observed over anterior regions and reflected individual differences in ensuing forgetting. The present study demonstrates ERP correlates of the reactivation of tightly bound associated memories (the competitors) and provides support for the inhibitory-control account of RIF.

  10. Spatial Variations of Soil Microbial Activities in Saline Groundwater-Irrigated Soil Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li-Juan; Feng, Qi; Li, Chang-Sheng; Song, You-Xi; Liu, Wei; Si, Jian-Hua; Zhang, Bao-Gui

    2016-05-01

    Spatial variations of soil microbial activities and its relationship with environmental factors are very important for estimating regional soil ecosystem function. Based on field samplings in a typical saline groundwater-irrigated region, spatial variations of soil microbial metabolic activities were investigated. Combined with groundwater quality analysis, the relationship between microbial activities and water salinity was also studied. The results demonstrated that moderate spatial heterogeneity of soil microbial activities presented under the total dissolved solids (TDS) of groundwater ranging from 0.23 to 12.24 g L(-1). Groundwater salinity and microbial activities had almost opposite distribution characteristics: slight saline water was mainly distributed in west Baqu and south Quanshan, while severe saline and briny water were dominant in east Baqu and west Huqu; however, total AWCD was higher in the east-center and southwest of Baqu and east Huqu, while it was lower in east Baqu and northwest Huqu. The results of correlation analyses demonstrated that high-salinity groundwater irrigation had significantly adverse effects on soil microbial activities. Major ions Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Cl(-), and SO4(2-) in groundwater decisively influenced the results. Three carbon sources, carbohydrates, amines, and phenols, which had minor utilization rates in all irrigation districts, were extremely significantly affected by high-salinity groundwater irrigation. The results presented here offer an approach for diagnosing regional soil ecosystem function changes under saline water irrigation.

  11. Oscillatory brain activity correlates with risk perception and predicts social decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billeke, Pablo; Zamorano, Francisco; Cosmelli, Diego; Aboitiz, Francisco

    2013-12-01

    In social interactions, the perception of how risky our decisions are depends on how we anticipate other people's behaviors. We used electroencephalography to study the neurobiology of perception of social risk, in subjects playing the role of proposers in an iterated ultimatum game in pairs. Based on statistical modeling, we used the previous behaviors of both players to separate high-risk [HR] offers from low-risk [LR] offers. The HR offers present higher rejection probability and higher entropy (variability of possible outcome) than the LR offers. Rejections of LR offers elicited both a stronger mediofrontal negativity and a higher prefrontal theta activity than rejections of HR offers. Moreover, prior to feedback, HR offers generated a drop in alpha activity in an extended network. Interestingly, trial-by-trial variation in alpha activity in the medial prefrontal, posterior temporal, and inferior pariental cortex was specifically modulated by risk and, together with theta activity in the prefrontal and posterior cingulate cortex, predicted the proposer's subsequent behavior. Our results provide evidence that alpha and theta oscillations are sensitive to social risk and underlie a fine-tuning regulation of social decisions.

  12. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among

  13. Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shama, Lisa N S

    2015-12-01

    Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment

  14. VFC - Variational Feedback Controller and its application to semi-active suspensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepe, G.; Carcaterra, A.

    2016-08-01

    Active and semi-active control of oscillating devices and structures is a challenging field and this paper proposes an original investigation based on variational controls that can be successfully applied to mechanical systems. The method produces a general class of new controllers, named VFC - Variational Feedback Controllers, that is the main theoretical contribution of the paper. The value of the theory relies on using a reformulation of the Variational Optimal Control Theory, that has in general the limit of producing control program strategies and not directly feedback control methods. The difficulties are in fact related to the intrinsic nature of the variational optimal control, that must solve initial and final boundary conditions. A special definition of the class of the considered objective functions, permits to skip this difficulty, producing a pure feedback control. The presented theory goes beyond with respect to the most acknowledged LQR variational-based techniques, in that VFC can be applied to more general nonlinear dynamical systems, even with finite time horizon. To test the effectiveness of the novel approach in real engineering problems, a deep investigation on nonlinear suspension systems treated by VFC is proposed in this paper. To this aim, VFC is systematically compared with the most recent methods available in this field and suitable to deal with nonlinear system control of car suspensions. In particular, the comparative analysis is made in terms of both comfort and handling key performance indexes, that permits to easily and significantly compare different control logics, such as the Sky-hook and Ground-hook control families, the Acceleration and Power Driven Dampers. The results of this comparison are collected in a performance plane, having comfort and handling indexes as coordinate axes, showing that VFC controllers completely cover the regions reached by the other mentioned control logics in this plane, but reveal to have access to

  15. The Solar Rotational Activity Variations during the 23-th Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, R.; Hempelmann, A.; Valev, D.; Kostadinov, I.; Atanassov, At.; Giovanelli, G.; Petritoli, A.; Bortoli, D.; Ravegnani, F.

    2006-03-01

    The study of the solar activity variability has been of great interest since its discovery. On the one hand it is important for the understanding of the Sun as an active star and on the other hand for the investigations of the solar-terrestrial connections. The solar magnetic field reverses approximately every 22 years, and manifests the 11-year solar cycle, in which the Sun changes its activity from its maximum value to the minimum one. The activity variations, developed by the sun surface rotation in connection with the nonsymmetrical distribution of active regions over the solar disc appear in a shorter time scale. As it is well known, these variations have periods of about 27 days. The solar surface rotates with different velocity, depending on the latitude. The differential solar rotation period, observed from the Earth, varies from 26.75 days at the solar equator up to approximately 29 days at higher latitudes. However the observed periodicity is generally in a wider range: from 20 up to 36 days. This wider spread is a result of the combination of both active-region evolution and solar rotation. A simple empirical solar activity model is proposed, which describes the obtained behavior by harmonic oscillations with simultaneous amplitude and phase modulation. The solar rotational periodicity is analyzed using wavelet. It is demonstrated, that the model describes well the separate episodes of the active region evolution. Both kinds of modulations are the consequence of activity region growth or decay and hence, they are a result of a variable pattern of spots and active regions on the solar surface.

  16. Utilizing Selected Di- and Trinucleotides of siRNA to Predict RNAi Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Han

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Small interfering RNAs (siRNAs induce posttranscriptional gene silencing in various organisms. siRNAs targeted to different positions of the same gene show different effectiveness; hence, predicting siRNA activity is a crucial step. In this paper, we developed and evaluated a powerful tool named “siRNApred” with a new mixed feature set to predict siRNA activity. To improve the prediction accuracy, we proposed 2-3NTs as our new features. A Random Forest siRNA activity prediction model was constructed using the feature set selected by our proposed Binary Search Feature Selection (BSFS algorithm. Experimental data demonstrated that the binding site of the Argonaute protein correlates with siRNA activity. “siRNApred” is effective for selecting active siRNAs, and the prediction results demonstrate that our method can outperform other current siRNA activity prediction methods in terms of prediction accuracy.

  17. Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Philip M. Polgreen; Forrest D. Nelson; George R. Neumann

    2007-01-01

    Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates...

  18. Modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variation at a mining face based on the elliptic orbit model:A case study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Zongchang; Zhou Shaowu

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring and analysis of daily gas concentrations at a mining face is a vital task on safety production and security management in the coal-mining industry. This study addresses modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variations based on the elliptic orbit model. The model describes the hourly variation in daily gas concentration by mapping its time-series into the polar coordinates to create its elliptic orbit trace for further analysis. Experiments show workability of the proposed method that daily gas concentration variation at a mining face of one coal mine in China is well described by the elliptic orbit model. Result analysis and performance comparison of the proposed elliptic orbit model with the classical AR model on the same prediction tasks indicate potentiality of the proposed elliptic orbit model, which presents a vivid approach for modeling and forecasting daily gas concentration variations in an intuitive and concise way.

  19. Intraspecific variation in alkaline phosphatase activity in Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bacillariophyceae, Bohlin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domênica Teixeira de Lima

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT To describe potential intraspecific variation in phosphorus incorporation in two strains of Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bohlin, Ub3 and Ub7, alkaline phosphatase (AP activity was evaluated via enzyme-labeled fluorescence assay. Analysis using the probe ELF-97(r provides individual evaluation, and therefore can determine the nutritional status of inorganic phosphorus in phytoplanktonic cells. Bioassays compared the control treatment to both phosphate-enriched and phosphate-depleted treatments by varying only the phosphate concentration in the media. The P. tricornutum strains exhibited differences in their development when incubated in the phosphate-enriched media. The development of the Ub7 strain differed by exhibiting "luxury uptake" and utilization of organic phosphorus, and the alkaline phosphatase analysis indicated limitations of this clone under such conditions. The Ub7 strain showed higher AP activity, when compared to Ub3, in the P-enriched condition. P. tricornutum presented increases in AP activity and low variation in Surface/Volume ratio, by increasing biovolume and its maximum linear dimension, as strategies for phosphate incorporation. Our results highlight intraspecific differences in alkaline phosphatase activity, and hence differences in the incorporation of organic phosphorus, as the tested species regulated enzymatic activity under different external phosphate concentrations.

  20. Origins of the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in 1954 and 1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Svalgaard

    Full Text Available We investigate the cause of the unusually strong semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity observed in the solar minimum years of 1954 and 1996. For 1996 we separate the contributions of the three classical modulation mechanisms (axial, equinoctial, and Russell-McPherron to the six-month wave in the aam index and find that all three contribute about equally. This is in contrast to the longer run of geomagnetic activity (1868-1998 over which the equinoctial effect accounts for ∼70% of the semiannual variation. For both 1954 and 1996, we show that the Russell-McPherron effect was enhanced by the Rosenberg-Coleman effect (an axial polarity effect which increased the amount of the negative (toward Sun [positive (away from Sun] polarity field observed during the first [second] half of the year; such fields yield a southward component in GSM coordinates. Because this favourable condition occurs only for alternate solar cycles, the marked semiannual variation in 1954 and 1996 is a manifestation of the 22-year cycle of geomagnetic activity. The 11-year evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS also contributes to the strong six-month wave during these years. At solar minimum, the streamer belt at the base of the HCS is located near the solar equator, permitting easier access to high speed streams from polar coronal holes when the Earth is at its highest heliographic latitudes in March and September. Such an axial variation in solar wind speed was observed for 1996 and is inferred for 1954. Key words. Magnetosphere (solar wind – magnetosphere interactions; storms and substorms

  1. Computational Modelling of Pisum Sativum L. Superoxide Dismutase and Prediction of Mutational Variations through in silico Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan Vinod Kumar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Superoxide dismutase (SOD is one of the major enzymes expressed in the oxidative stress pathway in plants. Its expression is also evident in other taxonomic group in oxidative reactions. Pisum sativum a common plant is being studied in the present work where SOD is characterized using computational tools. SOD sequence of P. sativum [CAA42737.1] Ala and Leu rich protein with alkaline pI value was used as query sequence and used to obtain nine similar sequences through BLASTp. Phylogenetic tree was constructed using MEGA 5.0 based on neighbour joining method. Physiochemical parameters and amino acid composition was studied and compared with query sequences and other similar sequences. Secondary structures were predicted to understand the dominant components. Homology modeling of P. sativum SOD was done using SWISS MODEL and quality was evaluated using standard methods. 27 active sites were detected in SOD predicted model which were Lys rich.

  2. Long-term stellar activity variations of stars from the HARPS M-dwarf sample: Comparison between activity indices

    CERN Document Server

    da Silva, J Gomes; Bonfils, X

    2010-01-01

    We used four known chromospheric activity indicators to measure long-term activity variations in a sample of 23 M-dwarf stars from the HARPS planet search program. We compared the indices using weighted Pearson correlation coefficients and found that in general (i) the correlation between $S_{CaII}$ and \\ion{Na}{i} is very strong and does not depend on the activity level of the stars, (ii) the correlation between our $S_{CaII}$ and H$\\alpha$ seems to depend on the activity level of the stars, and (iii) there is no strong correlation between $S_{CaII}$ and \\ion{He}{i} for these type of stars.

  3. Evaluating stability of histomorphometric features across scanner and staining variations: predicting biochemical recurrence from prostate cancer whole slide images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leo, Patrick; Lee, George; Madabhushi, Anant

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative histomorphometry (QH) is the process of computerized extraction of features from digitized tissue slide images. Typically these features are used in machine learning classifiers to predict disease presence, behavior and outcome. Successful robust classifiers require features that both discriminate between classes of interest and are stable across data from multiple sites. Feature stability may be compromised by variation in slide staining and scanning procedures. These laboratory specific variables include dye batch, slice thickness and the whole slide scanner used to digitize the slide. The key therefore is to be able to identify features that are not only discriminating between the classes of interest (e.g. cancer and non-cancer or biochemical recurrence and non- recurrence) but also features that will not wildly fluctuate on slides representing the same tissue class but from across multiple different labs and sites. While there has been some recent efforts at understanding feature stability in the context of radiomics applications (i.e. feature analysis of radiographic images), relatively few attempts have been made at studying the trade-off between feature stability and discriminability for histomorphometric and digital pathology applications. In this paper we present two new measures, preparation-induced instability score (PI) and latent instability score (LI), to quantify feature instability across and within datasets. Dividing PI by LI yields a ratio for how often a feature for a specific tissue class (e.g. low grade prostate cancer) is different between datasets from different sites versus what would be expected from random chance alone. Using this ratio we seek to quantify feature vulnerability to variations in slide preparation and digitization. Since our goal is to identify stable QH features we evaluate these features for their stability and thus inclusion in machine learning based classifiers in a use case involving prostate cancer

  4. Variation of Soil Microbial Biomass and Enzyme Activities at Different Growth Stages of Rice (Oryza sativa)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Lu-sheng; LIAO Min; CHEN Cheng-li; HUANG Chang-yong

    2005-01-01

    A pot experiment was conducted under submerged conditions with hybrid rice Zhenong 7 to study the variation in the soil microbial biomass carbon (Cmic), soil microbial biomass nitrogen (Nmic), soil respiration rate, soil microbial metabolic quotient, soil enzyme activities, chlorophyll content, proline content and peroxidase activity (POD) in rice leaf at different growth stages. The soil Cmic, Nmic and soii respiration rate significantly increased at the early stage and then declined during rice growth, but ascended slightly at maturity. However, soil metabolic quotient declined at all the stages. Soil urease activity increased at first and then decreased, while acid phosphatase and dehydrogenase activities descended before ascended and then descended again. Soil urease activity and acid phosphatase activity showed a peak value at the tillering stage about 30 days after rice transplanting, but the peak value of dehydrogenase activity emerged at about 50 days after rice transplanting and the three soil enzymatic activities were significantly different at the different developmental stages. As rice growing, chlorophyll content in rice leaf descended at the early stage then ascended and a peak value appeared at about the 70th after rice transplanting, after that declined drastically, while POD activity increased gradually, but proline content declined gradually. There was a slight relation between rice physiological indices and soil biochemical indices, which indicated that soil biochemical characteristics were affected significantly by rice growth in the interactior system of the rice, soil and microorganisms.

  5. Variations of 14-C around AD 775 and AD 1795 - due to solar activity

    CERN Document Server

    Neuhaeuser, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of 14-C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the 14-C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14-C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing 14-C, there is a series of strong short-term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid 14-C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects...

  6. THE FIRST RESULTS OF STUDIES OF TEMPORARY VARIATIONS IN SOILRADON ACTIVITY OF FAULTS IN WESTERN PRIBAIKALIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    К. Zh. Seminsky

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Radon concentrations in soil air are variable depending on factors that are considered external (planetary and internal (geodynamic relative to the Earth. In active fault zones, variations of gas emanations are most intense. A permanent monitoring station was established near Tyrgan settlement in Western Pribaikalie to study temporal variations of soil radon concentration, Q, in the faults of the Baikal rift, East Siberia. This station is located in the zone of the Primorsky normal fault that is the largest in the region. The station is equipped with radon radiometer PPA01M03 that records Q values every 85 minutes and also monitors a number of meteorological parameters, including atmospheric pressure, humidity, and air temperature.We analysed records of two measurement sessions (148 and 66 days covering a part of the year during which field measurement of Q are possible in the cold climate conditions of the area under study. According to the available monitoring data, variations of radon concentrations in the Primorsky fault zone may vary by more than one order of magnitude through a springsummerautumn period, and such variations are oscillatory. Significant changes of permeability in time occur due to intensive changes in the state of stresses of the rock massives under the impacts of the planetary and geodynamic factors. The influence of the first group of factors, i.e. planetary ones, is manifested by synchronous oscillations of radon concentrations and atmospheric pressure, which phases of occurrence are opposed. Domination of daily and fourday periods gives evidence that the state of stresses of the rock massives is impacted by the lunar tides and cyclonic phenomena associated with the interaction between the Earth and the Sun. The influence of the second group of factors, i.e. geodynamic ones, is suggested by an evident relation between radon emanations and seismic events, including the catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 11, 2011, M=9

  7. Methane production and diurnal variation measured in dairy cows and predicted from fermentation pattern and nutrient or carbon flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brask, M; Weisbjerg, M R; Hellwing, A L F; Bannink, A; Lund, P

    2015-11-01

    ) production followed that of rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration and the CH(4) to CO(2) production ratio, but was inverse to rumen pH and the rumen hydrogen balance calculated from 4×(acetate+butyrate)/2×(propionate+valerate). In conclusion, the amount of feed fermented was the most important factor determining variations in CH(4) production between animals, diets and during the day. Interactions between feed components, VFA absorption rates and variation between animals seemed to be factors that were complicating the accurate prediction of CH(4). Using a ruminal carbon balance appeared to predict CH(4) production just as well as calculations based on rumen digestion of individual nutrients.

  8. Seasonal variation of daily physical activity in individuals with heart failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Shoemaker

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Previous studies indicate that seasonal variation affects daily physical activity (PA, but none have investigated this relationship in individuals with heart failure (HF who also have implanted cardioverter defibrillators and cardiac resynchronization therapy (ICD/CRT devices. The purpose of the present study was to determine if seasonal variation in temperature affects daily PA in patients with HF and ICD/CRTs. Patients and methods Secondary analysis of data from 16 subjects with HF and Medtronic® ICD/CRT devices enrolled in a randomized trial investigating interventions to improve daily PA. Due to the rolling study enrollment, daily PA data for all subjects were not available for the entire time frame and were divided into two groups. Determination of seasonal variation of daily PA was determined using visual analysis of daily PA plotted with average temperature, autocorrelation, visual analysis of seasonal subseries plots and boxplot analysis, as well as Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results Subjects 1-8 demonstrated the greatest differences in daily PA during periods of seasonal transition whereas subjects 9-16 demonstrated the greatest variation in daily PA with greatest seasonal temperature difference. Wilcoxon signed-rank testing of the lowest and highest months for daily PA revealed median differences of 0.30 (p = 0.050 and 0.36 hours (p = 0.036 for subjects 1-8 and 9-16, with effect sizes of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively. Conclusions Seasonal variation in mean temperature appears to affect daily PA in individuals with HF and ICD/CRT devices by a magnitude of 0.30-0.36 hours, which may need to be accounted for in future research investigating interventions to improve daily PA.

  9. Harvester ant colony variation in foraging activity and response to humidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Deborah M; Dektar, Katherine N; Pinter-Wollman, Noa

    2013-01-01

    Collective behavior is produced by interactions among individuals. Differences among groups in individual response to interactions can lead to ecologically important variation among groups in collective behavior. Here we examine variation among colonies in the foraging behavior of the harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus. Previous work shows how colonies regulate foraging in response to food availability and desiccation costs: the rate at which outgoing foragers leave the nest depends on the rate at which foragers return with food. To examine how colonies vary in response to humidity and in foraging rate, we performed field experiments that manipulated forager return rate in 94 trials with 17 colonies over 3 years. We found that the effect of returning foragers on the rate of outgoing foragers increases with humidity. There are consistent differences among colonies in foraging activity that persist from year to year.

  10. Harvester ant colony variation in foraging activity and response to humidity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah M Gordon

    Full Text Available Collective behavior is produced by interactions among individuals. Differences among groups in individual response to interactions can lead to ecologically important variation among groups in collective behavior. Here we examine variation among colonies in the foraging behavior of the harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus. Previous work shows how colonies regulate foraging in response to food availability and desiccation costs: the rate at which outgoing foragers leave the nest depends on the rate at which foragers return with food. To examine how colonies vary in response to humidity and in foraging rate, we performed field experiments that manipulated forager return rate in 94 trials with 17 colonies over 3 years. We found that the effect of returning foragers on the rate of outgoing foragers increases with humidity. There are consistent differences among colonies in foraging activity that persist from year to year.

  11. Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

    1994-01-01

    We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

  12. Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

    1994-01-01

    We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

  13. Match-to-match variation in physical activity and technical skill measures in professional Australian Football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempton, Thomas; Sullivan, Courtney; Bilsborough, Johann C; Cordy, Justin; Coutts, Aaron J

    2015-01-01

    To determine the match-to-match variability in physical activity and technical performance measures in Australian Football, and examine the influence of playing position, time of season, and different seasons on these measures of variability. Longitudinal observational study. Global positioning system, accelerometer and technical performance measures (total kicks, handballs, possessions and Champion Data rank) were collected from 33 players competing in the Australian Football League over 31 matches during 2011-2012 (N=511 observations). The global positioning system data were categorised into total distance, mean speed (mmin(-1)), high-speed running (>14.4 kmh(-1)), very high-speed running (>19.9 kmh(-1)), and sprint (>23.0 kmh(-1)) distance while player load was collected from the accelerometer. The data were log transformed to provide coefficient of variation and the between subject standard deviation (expressed as percentages). Match-to-match variability was increased for higher speed activities (high-speed running, very high-speed running, sprint distance, coefficient of variation %: 13.3-28.6%) compared to global measures (speed, total distance, player load, coefficient of variation %: 5.3-9.2%). The between-match variability was relativity stable for all measures between and within AFL seasons, with only few differences between positions. Higher speed activities (high-speed running, very high-speed running, sprint distance), but excluding mean speed, total distance and player load, were all higher in the final third phase of the season compared to the start of the season. While global measures of physical performance are relatively stable, higher-speed activities and technical measures exhibit a large degree of between-match variability in Australian Football. However, these measures remain relatively stable between positions, and within and between Australian Football League seasons. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  14. Intraspecific variation of biological activities in venoms from wild and captive Bothrops jararaca.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Eduardo; Curtolo Barros, Luciana; Biscola, Natalia; Pimenta, Daniel C; Barraviera, Silvia R C S; Barraviera, Benedito; Seabra Ferreira, Rui

    2012-01-01

    The venom of Bothrops jararaca is composed of complex mixture of molecules, mainly lectins, metalloproteinases, serinoproteinases, desintegrins, phospholipases, and peptides. This composition may vary according to the snake's age, gender, and region of origin. The aim of the was to determine individual variation in Bothrops jararaca venom in the Botucatu region, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, by means of enzymatic, biochemical, and pharmacological characterization, utilizing in vitro tests and biological assays. The activities were compared with those of Brazilian Reference Venom (BRV). Protein concentration varied between adult and juvenile groups. The electrophoretic profiles were similar, with molecular masses ranging between 25 and 50 kD, but with intraspecific variations. Reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) revealed protein concentration differences. Coagulant activity did not differ significantly among adult groups, but there was a large variation between juvenile venom and BRV, which coagulated more extensively. Venoms from adults displayed greater hemorrhagic activity, especially in males recently obtained from the wild. In contrast, juveniles kept in captivity and adult males showed higher values. Edematogenic activity displayed an increase in edema in all groups. At the mean lethal dose (LD₅₀), toxicity varied significantly between groups, with venom from captive females being threefold more toxic than juvenile venom. Data illustrate the intra- and interspecific complexity that occurs in snake venoms, which may be attributed to ontogenetic, sexual, and environmental factors that affect variability in Bothrops jararaca venom. Further, it is proposed that Brazilian public health authorities document the constitution of pooled venom employed in the immunization of serum-producing animals due to this variability in venom properties. Given the large Brazilian territory, this variability requires regional monitoring and evaluation of

  15. Seasonal Variation, Chemical Composition and Antioxidant Activity of Brazilian Propolis Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Érica Weinstein Teixeira

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Total phenolic contents, antioxidant activity and chemical composition of propolis samples from three localities of Minas Gerais state (southeast Brazil were determined. Total phenolic contents were determined by the Folin–Ciocalteau method, antioxidant activity was evaluated by DPPH, using BHT as reference, and chemical composition was analyzed by GC/MS. Propolis from Itapecerica and Paula Cândido municipalities were found to have high phenolic contents and pronounced antioxidant activity. From these extracts, 40 substances were identified, among them were simple phenylpropanoids, prenylated phenylpropanoids, sesqui- and diterpenoids. Quantitatively, the main constituent of both samples was allyl-3-prenylcinnamic acid. A sample from Virginópolis municipality had no detectable phenolic substances and contained mainly triterpenoids, the main constituents being α- and β-amyrins. Methanolic extracts from Itapecerica and Paula Cândido exhibited pronounced scavenging activity towards DPPH, indistinguishable from BHT activity. However, extracts from Virginópolis sample exhibited no antioxidant activity. Total phenolic substances, GC/MS analyses and antioxidant activity of samples from Itapecerica collected monthly over a period of 1 year revealed considerable variation. No correlation was observed between antioxidant activity and either total phenolic contents or contents of artepillin C and other phenolic substances, as assayed by CG/MS analysis.

  16. Relationships between diurnal blood pressure variation, physical activity, and health-related QOL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Yasuko; Hirawa, Nobuhito; Tochikubo, Osamu; Mizushima, Shunsaku; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Kihara, Minoru; Toya, Yoshiyuki; Umemura, Satoshi

    2004-02-01

    The aim of this study is to clarify the associations between diurnal blood pressure variation, physical activity and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Ninety-seven volunteers, including 52 hypertensive patients and 45 healthy subjects (average age, 48 years) participated in this study. Twenty-four hour ambulatory blood pressure and heart rate variability were measured using TM2425 (A&D Co). Physical activity was measured using actigraphy, and HRQOL was assessed by a Medical Outcome Study Short-Forum 36-Item Health Survey (SF-36). Awake mean physical activity positively correlated with the nocturnal dip in systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r = 0.242, p physical functioning positively correlated with awake mean physical activity (r = 0.265, p physical activity (r = 0.269, p = 0.01). Using multiple regression analysis, the nocturnal dip in SBP was found to be correlated with awake and sleep mean physical activities (p physical activity is associated with the nocturnal dip in blood pressure. Moreover, physical activity correlates with some of the factors of HRQOL.

  17. Large ethnic variations in recommended physical activity according to activity domains in Amsterdam, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Munter, J.S.L.; Valkengoed, I.G.M.; Agyemang, C.; Kunst, A.E.; Stronks, K.

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Purpose: The level of recommended physical activity (PA) is met less frequently by people from some ethnic minorities than others. We explored whether these differences in recommended PA between ethnic minority groups and the general population varied by domain and type of culturally-speci

  18. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited.  Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions.  Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied.  The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was composition dependent. For more "realistic" higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus, it would appear that in order to model

  19. QM/MM studies of xanthine oxidase: variations of cofactor, substrate, and active-site Glu802.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metz, Sebastian; Thiel, Walter

    2010-01-28

    In continuation of our previous QM/MM study on the reductive half-reaction of wild-type xanthine oxidase, we consider the effects of variations in the cofactor, the substrate, and the active-site Glu802 residue on the reaction mechanism. Replacement of the sulfido ligand in the natural cofactor by an oxo ligand leads to a substantial increase in the computed barriers, consistent with the experimentally observed inactivity of this modified cofactor, whereas the selenido form is predicted to have lower barriers and hence higher activity. For the substrate 2-oxo-6-methylpurine, the calculated pathways for three different tautomers show great similarity to those found previously for xanthine, contrary to claims in the literature that the mechanisms for these two substrates are different. Compared with the wild-type enzyme, the conversion of xanthine to uric acid follows a somewhat different pathway in the Glu802 --> Gln mutant which exhibits a lower overall activity, in agreement with recently published kinetic data. The present results confirm the basic stepwise reaction mechanism and the orientation of the substrate that has been proposed in our previous QM/MM work on aldehyde oxidoreductase and xanthine oxidase.

  20. Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

  1. A Sensorless Predictive Current Controlled Boost Converter by Using an EKF with Load Variation Effect Elimination Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiaoling Tong

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available To realize accurate current control for a boost converter, a precise measurement of the inductor current is required to achieve high resolution current regulating. Current sensors are widely used to measure the inductor current. However, the current sensors and their processing circuits significantly contribute extra hardware cost, delay and noise to the system. They can also harm the system reliability. Therefore, current sensorless control techniques can bring cost effective and reliable solutions for various boost converter applications. According to the derived accurate model, which contains a number of parasitics, the boost converter is a nonlinear system. An Extended Kalman Filter (EKF is proposed for inductor current estimation and output voltage filtering. With this approach, the system can have the same advantages as sensored current control mode. To implement EKF, the load value is necessary. However, the load may vary from time to time. This can lead to errors of current estimation and filtered output voltage. To solve this issue, a load variation elimination effect elimination (LVEE module is added. In addition, a predictive average current controller is used to regulate the current. Compared with conventional voltage controlled system, the transient response is greatly improved since it only takes two switching cycles for the current to reach its reference. Finally, experimental results are presented to verify the stable operation and output tracking capability for large-signal transients of the proposed algorithm.

  2. Genetic variation and host-parasite specificity of Striga resistance and tolerance in rice: the need for predictive breeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodenburg, Jonne; Cissoko, Mamadou; Kayongo, Nicholas; Dieng, Ibnou; Bisikwa, Jenipher; Irakiza, Runyambo; Masoka, Isaac; Midega, Charles A O; Scholes, Julie D

    2017-02-13

    The parasitic weeds Striga asiatica and Striga hermonthica cause devastating yield losses to upland rice in Africa. Little is known about genetic variation in host resistance and tolerance across rice genotypes, in relation to virulence differences across Striga species and ecotypes. Diverse rice genotypes were phenotyped for the above traits in S. asiatica- (Tanzania) and S. hermonthica-infested fields (Kenya and Uganda) and under controlled conditions. New rice genotypes with either ecotype-specific or broad-spectrum resistance were identified. Resistance identified in the field was confirmed under controlled conditions, providing evidence that resistance was largely genetically determined. Striga-resistant genotypes contributed to yield security under Striga-infested conditions, although grain yield was also determined by the genotype-specific yield potential and tolerance. Tolerance, the physiological mechanism mitigating Striga effects on host growth and physiology, was unrelated to resistance, implying that any combination of high, medium or low levels of these traits can be found across rice genotypes. Striga virulence varies across species and ecotypes. The extent of Striga-induced host damage results from the interaction between parasite virulence and genetically determined levels of host-plant resistance and tolerance. These novel findings support the need for predictive breeding strategies based on knowledge of host resistance and parasite virulence.

  3. The immediate effect of the variation of anteroposterior laterotrusive contacts on the elevator EMG activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manns, A; Rocabado, M; Cadenasso, P; Miralles, R; Cumsille, M A

    1993-07-01

    A unilateral maxillary splint divided into three occlusal blocks was built for eight healthy young adults. The three blocks allowed the anteroposterior location of the laterotrusive contacts to vary and to distribute the occlusal force over equivalent periodontal surfaces. The ipsilateral masseteric and temporalis electromyogram (EMG) activities were recorded with surface electrodes during maximal voluntary clenching. The elevator EMG activity with the anterior occlusal block in place was significantly lower than with the intermediate or posterior blocks. The reduction for both elevators with the intermediate block in place did not show a significant variation in comparison to the posterior block of the three blocks inserted. The elevator activity with the three occlusal blocks did not differ from that recorded with the posterior block alone. Neurophysiologic and biomechanical explanations are given related to this laterotrusive elevator muscular behavior.

  4. In vitro anti-Mycobacterium avium activities of quinolones: predicted active structures and mechanistic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopman, G; Li, J Y; Wang, S; Pearson, A J; Chang, K; Jacobs, M R; Bajaksouzian, S; Ellner, J J

    1994-08-01

    The relationship between the structures of quinolones and their anti-Mycobacterium avium activities has been previously derived by using the Multiple Computer-Automated Structure Evaluation program. A number of substructural constraints required to overcome the resistance of most of the strains have been identified. Nineteen new quinolones which qualify under these substructural requirements were identified by the program and subsequently tested. The results show that the substructural attributes identified by the program produced a successful a priori prediction of the anti-M. avium activities of the new quinolones. All 19 quinolones were found to be active, and 4 of them are as active or better than ciprofloxacin. With these new quinolones, the updated multiple computer-automated structure evaluation program structure-activity relationship analysis has helped to uncover additional information about the nature of the substituents at the C5 and C7 positions needed for optimal inhibitory activity. A possible explanation of drug resistance based on the observation of suicide inactivation of bacterial cytochrome P-450 by the cyclopropylamine moiety has also been proposed and is discussed in this report. Furthermore, we confirm the view that the amount of the uncharged form present in a neutral pH solution plays a crucial role in the drug's penetration ability.

  5. The Eyes Have It: Hippocampal Activity Predicts Expression of Memory in Eye Movements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2009-01-01

    ...) with concurrent indirect, eye-movement-based memory measures, we obtained evidence that hippocampal activity predicted expressions of relational memory in subsequent patterns of viewing, even when...

  6. Ontogenetic Variation in Biological Activities of Venoms from Hybrids between Bothrops erythromelas and Bothrops neuwiedi Snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Marcelo Larami; do Carmo, Thaís; Cunha, Bruna Heloísa Lopes; Alves, André Fonseca; Zelanis, André; Serrano, Solange Maria de Toledo; Grego, Kathleen Fernandes; Sant’Anna, Savio Stefanini; Barbaro, Katia Cristina; Fernandes, Wilson

    2015-01-01

    Lance-headed snakes are found in Central and South America, and they account for most snakebites in Brazil. The phylogeny of South American pitvipers has been reviewed, and the presence of natural and non-natural hybrids between different species of Bothrops snakes demonstrates that reproductive isolation of several species is still incomplete. The present study aimed to analyze the biological features, particularly the thrombin-like activity, of venoms from hybrids born in captivity, from the mating of a female Bothrops erythromelas and a male Bothrops neuwiedi, two species whose venoms are known to display ontogenetic variation. Proteolytic activity on azocoll and amidolytic activity on N-benzoyl-DL-arginine-p-nitroanilide hydrochloride (BAPNA) were lowest when hybrids were 3 months old, and increased over body growth, reaching values similar to those of the father when hybrids were 12 months old. The clotting activity on plasma diminished as hybrids grew; venoms from 3- and 6-months old hybrids showed low clotting activity on fibrinogen (i.e., thrombin-like activity), like the mother venom, and such activity was detected only when hybrids were older than 1 year of age. Altogether, these results point out that venom features in hybrid snakes are genetically controlled during the ontogenetic development. Despite the presence of the thrombin-like enzyme gene(s) in hybrid snakes, they are silenced during the first six months of life. PMID:26714190

  7. Ontogenetic Variation in Biological Activities of Venoms from Hybrids between Bothrops erythromelas and Bothrops neuwiedi Snakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Larami Santoro

    Full Text Available Lance-headed snakes are found in Central and South America, and they account for most snakebites in Brazil. The phylogeny of South American pitvipers has been reviewed, and the presence of natural and non-natural hybrids between different species of Bothrops snakes demonstrates that reproductive isolation of several species is still incomplete. The present study aimed to analyze the biological features, particularly the thrombin-like activity, of venoms from hybrids born in captivity, from the mating of a female Bothrops erythromelas and a male Bothrops neuwiedi, two species whose venoms are known to display ontogenetic variation. Proteolytic activity on azocoll and amidolytic activity on N-benzoyl-DL-arginine-p-nitroanilide hydrochloride (BAPNA were lowest when hybrids were 3 months old, and increased over body growth, reaching values similar to those of the father when hybrids were 12 months old. The clotting activity on plasma diminished as hybrids grew; venoms from 3- and 6-months old hybrids showed low clotting activity on fibrinogen (i.e., thrombin-like activity, like the mother venom, and such activity was detected only when hybrids were older than 1 year of age. Altogether, these results point out that venom features in hybrid snakes are genetically controlled during the ontogenetic development. Despite the presence of the thrombin-like enzyme gene(s in hybrid snakes, they are silenced during the first six months of life.

  8. Variations of terrestrial geomagnetic activity correlated to M6+ global seismic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cataldi, Gabriele; Cataldi, Daniele; Straser, Valentino

    2013-04-01

    From the surface of the Sun, as a result of a solar flare, are expelled a coronal mass (CME or Coronal Mass Ejection) that can be observed from the Earth through a coronagraph in white light. This ejected material can be compared to an electrically charged cloud (plasma) mainly composed of electrons, protons and other small quantities of heavier elements such as helium, oxygen and iron that run radially from the Sun along the lines of the solar magnetic field and pushing into interplanetary space. Sometimes the CME able to reach the Earth causing major disruptions of its magnetosphere: mashed in the region illuminated by the Sun and expanding in the region not illuminated. This interaction creates extensive disruption of the Earth's geomagnetic field that can be detected by a radio receiver tuned to the ELF band (Extreme Low Frequency 0-30 Hz). The Radio Emissions Project (scientific research project founded in February 2009 by Gabriele Cataldi and Daniele Cataldi), analyzing the change in the Earth's geomagnetic field through an induction magnetometer tuned between 0.001 and 5 Hz (bandwidth in which possible to observe the geomagnetic pulsations) was able to detect the existence of a close relationship between this geomagnetic perturbations and the global seismic activity M6+. During the arrival of the CME on Earth, in the Earth's geomagnetic field are generated sudden and intensive emissions that have a bandwidth including between 0 and 15 Hz, an average duration of 2-8 hours, that preceding of 0-12 hours M6+ earthquakes. Between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2012, all M6+ earthquakes recorded on a global scale were preceded by this type of signals which, due to their characteristics, have been called "Seismic Geomagnetic Precursors" (S.G.P.). The main feature of Seismic Geomagnetic Precursors is represented by the close relationship that they have with the solar activity. In fact, because the S.G.P. are geomagnetic emissions, their temporal modulation depends

  9. Solar Activity and Cloud Opacity Variations A Modulated Cosmic-Ray Ionization Model

    CERN Document Server

    Marsden, D C; Marsden, David; Lingenfelter, Richard E.

    2002-01-01

    The observed correlation between global low cloud amount and the flux of high energy cosmic-rays supports the idea that ionization plays a crucial role in tropospheric cloud formation. We explore this idea quantitatively with a simple model of cosmic-ray ionization enhancement of the formation of cloud condensation nuclei. This model predicts that solar modulation of the cosmic-ray ionization rate should be correlated with cloud opacity where the atmospheric aerosol concentration is low. Using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project database (1983-1993), we find that the mean opacity of low latitude (40 degrees) clouds, on the other hand, show an anti-correlation with cosmic-ray flux, which we suggest may be a feedback effect resulting from the thicker low latitude clouds. We also show that the previously reported correlations of cloud amount with cosmic-ray flux probably result from the variations in longwave emissivity expected from our model, and not from variations in cloud amount. Further g...

  10. Long-term variation in the Sun's activity caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the tachocline

    CERN Document Server

    Zaqarashvili, T V; Hanslmeier, A; Carbonell, M; Ballester, J L; Gachechiladze, T; Usoskin, I G

    2015-01-01

    Long-term records of sunspot number and concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C) on the Earth reveal the variation of the Sun's magnetic activity over hundreds and thousands of years. We identify several clear periods in sunspot, 10Be, and 14C data as 1000, 500, 350, 200 and 100 years. We found that the periods of the first five spherical harmonics of the slow magnetic Rossby mode in the presence of a steady toroidal magnetic field of 1200-1300 G in the lower tachocline are in perfect agreement with the time scales of observed variations. The steady toroidal magnetic field can be generated in the lower tachocline either due to the steady dynamo magnetic field for low magnetic diffusivity or due to the action of the latitudinal differential rotation on the weak poloidal primordial magnetic field, which penetrates from the radiative interior. The slow magnetic Rossby waves lead to variations of the steady toroidal magnetic field in the lower tachocline, which modulate the dynamo magnetic field ...

  11. Mapping Activity Variations for Ru2O3 in Lunar Volcanic Green Glass Analogs Using Differential Pulse Voltammetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malum, K. M.; Colson, R. O.; Sawarynski, M.

    2001-01-01

    Using differential pulse voltammetry, we are mapping variations in activities for NiO and Ru2O3 as a function of compositional variation for compositions centered around an Apollo 15 green glass analog. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  12. Spatial-temporal variation of the land surface temperature field and present-day tectonic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Ma

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to acquire information on tectonic activity in western China from land surface temperature (LST field data. On the basis of the established relationship between heat and strain, we analyzed the LST distribution in western China using the satellite data product MODIS/Terra. Our results show that: 1. There are departures from annual changes of LST in some areas, and that these changes are associated with the activity of some active tectonic zones. 2. When annual-change background values caused by climate factors are removed, the long-period component (LSTLOW of temperature residual (ΔT of the LST is able to serve as an indicator for tectonic activity. We have found that a major earthquake can produce different effects on the LST fields of surrounding areas. These effects are characterized by both rises and drops in temperature. For example, there was a noteworthy temperature decline associated with the Sumatran M9 earthquake of 2004 in the Bayan Har-Songpan block of central Tibetan Plateau. 3. On the other hand, the LST field of a single area may respond differently to major shocks occurring in different areas in the regions surrounding China. For instance, the Kunlun M 8.1 event made the LST on the Longmen Mountains fault zone increase, whereas the Zaisan Lake M 7.9 quake of 2003, and the Sumatran M 9 event of 2004, caused decreases in the same area’s LST. 4. The variations of land surface temperature (LST over time are different in different tectonic areas. These phenomena may provide clues for the study of tectonic deformation processes. On the basis of these phenomena, we use a combination of temperature data obtained at varied depths, regional seismicity and strain results obtained with GPS measurements, to test the information related to tectonic activity derived from variations of the LST field, and discuss its implications to the creation of models of regional tectonic deformation.

  13. Physical Therapy Activities in Stroke, Knee Arthroplasty, and Traumatic Brain Injury Rehabilitation: Their Variation, Similarities, and Association With Functional Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Ching-Hui; Putman, Koen; Smout, Randall J.; Horn, Susan D.; Tian, Wenqiang

    2011-01-01

    Background The mix of physical therapy services is thought to be different with different impairment groups. However, it is not clear how much variation there is across impairment groups. Furthermore, the extent to which the same physical therapy activities are associated with functional outcomes across different types of patients is unknown. Objective The purposes of this study were: (1) to examine similarities and differences in the mix of physical therapy activities used in rehabilitation among patients from different impairment groups and (2) to examine whether the same physical therapy activities are associated with functional improvement across impairment groups. Design This was a prospective observational cohort study. Methods The study was conducted in inpatient rehabilitation facilities. The participants were 433 patients with stroke, 429 patients with total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and 207 patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Measures used in this study included: (1) the Comprehensive Severity Index to measure the severity of each patient's medical condition, (2) the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) to measure function, and (3) point-of-care instruments to measure time spent in specific physical therapy activities. Results All 3 groups had similar admission motor FIM scores but varying cognitive FIM scores. Patients with TKA spent more time on exercise than the other 2 groups (average=31.7 versus 6.2 minutes per day). Patients with TKA received the most physical therapy (average=65.3 minutes per day), whereas the TBI group received the least physical therapy (average=38.3 minutes per day). Multivariate analysis showed that only 2 physical therapy activities (gait training and community mobility) were both positively associated with discharge motor FIM outcomes across all 3 groups. Three physical therapy activities (assessment time, bed mobility, and transfers) were negatively associated with discharge motor FIM outcome. Limitations The study

  14. Study on the Seismic Active Earth Pressure by Variational Limit Equilibrium Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangong Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of limit equilibrium theory, the isoperimetric model of functional extremum regarding the seismic active earth pressure is deduced according to the variational method. On this basis, Lagrange multipliers are introduced to convert the problem of seismic active earth pressure into the problem on the functional extremum of two undetermined function arguments. Based on the necessary conditions required for the existence of functional extremum, the function of the slip surface and the normal stress distribution on the slip surface is obtained, and the functional extremum problem is further converted into a function optimization problem with two undetermined Lagrange multipliers. The calculated results show that the slip surface is a plane and the seismic active earth pressure is minimal when the action point is at the lower limit position. As the action point moves upward, the slip surface becomes a logarithmic spiral and the corresponding value of seismic active earth pressure increases in a nonlinear manner. And the seismic active earth pressure is maximal at the upper limit position. The interval estimation constructed by the minimum and maximum values of seismic active earth pressure can provide a reference for the aseismic design of gravity retaining walls.

  15. The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D.; Johansen, Peter

    2014-01-01

    In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this stud...... and their corresponding predictive values using the IrisPlex prediction model [4]. The results suggested that maximum three (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs16891982) of the six IrisPlex SNPs are useful in practical forensic genetic casework....

  16. Circulating Biologically Active Adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) Predicts Hemodynamic Support Requirement and Mortality During Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caironi, Pietro; Latini, Roberto; Struck, Joachim; Hartmann, Oliver; Bergmann, Andreas; Maggio, Giuseppe; Cavana, Marco; Tognoni, Gianni; Pesenti, Antonio; Gattinoni, Luciano; Masson, Serge

    2017-08-01

    The biological role of adrenomedullin (ADM), a hormone involved in hemodynamic homeostasis, is controversial in sepsis because administration of either the peptide or an antibody against it may be beneficial. Plasma biologically active ADM (bio-ADM) was assessed on days 1, 2, and 7 after randomization of 956 patients with sepsis or septic shock to albumin or crystalloids for fluid resuscitation in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis trial. We tested the association of bio-ADM and its time-dependent variation with fluid therapy, vasopressor administration, organ failures, and mortality. Plasma bio-ADM on day 1 (median [Q1-Q3], 110 [59-198] pg/mL) was higher in patients with septic shock, associated with 90-day mortality, multiple organ failures and the average extent of hemodynamic support therapy (fluids and vasopressors), and serum lactate time course over the first week. Moreover, it predicted incident cardiovascular dysfunction in patients without shock at enrollment (OR [95% CI], 1.9 [1.4-2.5]; P bio-ADM concentration). bio-ADM trajectory during the first week of treatment clearly predicted 90-day mortality after adjustment for clinically relevant covariates (hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.3 [1.2-1.4]; P bio-ADM concentrations were not dependent on albumin treatment. In patients with sepsis, the circulating, biologically active form of ADM may help individualizing hemodynamic support therapy, while avoiding harmful effects. Its possible pathophysiologic role makes bio-ADM a potential candidate for future targeted therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00707122. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Impact of variations in solar activity on hydrological decadal patterns in northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Rubino, A.; Traverso, P.; Tomasino, M.

    2008-06-01

    Using spectral and statistical analyses of discharges and basin average precipitation rates acquired over the Po River since the early 1800s, we investigate the impact of variations in solar activity on hydrological decadal patterns over northern Italy. Wet and dry periods appear to alternate in accordance with polarized sunspot cycles. Intriguingly, a solar signature on Po River discharges is detected to be highly significant since the late 1800s, before the onset of sunspots hyperactivity established by the middle 1900s. In particular, observed hydrological patterns over northern Italy are significantly correlated, under periods of quiet sunspot activity, with parameters characterizing the Sun's orbital motion, specifically with the time derivative of the solar angular momentum (τ) which is thought to modulate the strength of the solar wind and sunspot dynamics under weak sunspot activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is detected as potential link between the Sun and Po River discharges, since it is significantly correlated with both solar activity and the decadal variability in the north Italian climate. In particular, positive (negative) NAO anomalies, which are associated with comparatively lower (higher) Po River discharges, are assessed to alternatively correlate at decadal timescales either with τ or with the Earth's geomagnetic activity (GA), which closely follows sunspot activity. This changing correlation seems to be regulated by the strength of sunspot activity: under periods of quiet sunspot activity, a weakening of the GA-NAO connection and a reinforcement of the τ-NAO connection is observed. In this sense, the strength of solar activity apparently modulates the connection between the NAO and Po River discharges.

  18. Predicting enhancer activity and variant impact using gkm-SVM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, Michael A

    2017-01-25

    We participated in the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation eQTL challenge to further test computational models of regulatory variant impact and their association with human disease. Our prediction model is based on a discriminative gapped-kmer SVM (gkm-SVM) trained on genome-wide chromatin accessibility data in the cell type of interest. The comparisons with massively parallel reporter assays (MPRA) in lymphoblasts show that gkm-SVM is among the most accurate prediction models even though all other models used the MPRA data for model training, and gkm-SVM did not. In addition, we compare gkm-SVM with other MPRA datasets and show that gkm-SVM is a reliable predictor of expression and that deltaSVM is a reliable predictor of variant impact in K562 cells and mouse retina. We further show that DHS (DNase-I hypersensitive sites) and ATAC-seq (assay for transposase-accessible chromatin using sequencing) data are equally predictive substrates for training gkm-SVM, and that DHS regions flanked by H3K27Ac and H3K4me1 marks are more predictive than DHS regions alone.

  19. Activity monitoring reflects cardiovascular and metabolic variations in COPD patients across GOLD stages II to IV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortianou, E A; Louvaris, Z; Vasilopoulou, M; Nasis, I; Kaltsakas, G; Koulouris, N G; Vogiatzis, I

    2013-12-01

    We investigated whether activity monitoring reliably reflects variations in oxygen transport and utilization during walking in COPD patients. Forty-two patients (14 in each GOLD stage II, III and IV) performed an incremental treadmill protocol to the limit of tolerance. Breath-by-breath gas exchange, central hemodynamic variables and activity monitoring were simultaneously recorded. Physiological variables and accelerometer outputs rose linearly with walking speeds. Strong correlations (r[interquartile range, IQR]) were found between treadmill walking intensity (WI: range 0.8-2.0 ms(-2)) and oxygen consumption (0.95 [IQR 0.87-0.97]), (range 7.6-15.5 ml kg(-1)min(-1)); minute ventilation (0.95 [IQR 0.86-0.98]), (range 20-37 l min(-1)); cardiac output (0.89 [IQR 0.73-0.94]), (range 6.8-11.5 l min(-1)) and arteriovenous oxygen concentration difference (0.84 [IQR 0.76-0.90]), (range 7.7-12.1 ml O2100 ml(-1)). Correlations between WI and gas exchange or central hemodynamic parameters were not different across GOLD stages. In conclusion, central hemodynamic, respiratory and muscle metabolic variations during incremental treadmill exercise are tightly associated to changes in walking intensity as recorded by accelerometry across GOLD stages II to IV. Interestingly, the magnitude of these associations is not different across GOLD stages.

  20. Variations in trihalomethane levels in three French water distribution systems and the development of a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouly, Damien; Joulin, Eric; Rosin, Christophe; Beaudeau, Pascal; Zeghnoun, Abdelkrim; Olszewski-Ortar, Agnès; Munoz, Jean François; Welté, Bénédicte; Joyeux, Michel; Seux, René; Montiel, Antoine; Rodriguez, M J

    2010-10-01

    Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that chlorination by-products in drinking water may cause some types of cancer in humans. However, due to differences in methodology between the various studies, it is not possible to establish a dose-response relationship. This shortcoming is due primarily to uncertainties about how exposure is measured-made difficult by the great number of compounds present-the exposure routes involved and the variation in concentrations in water distribution systems. This is especially true for trihalomethanes for which concentrations can double between the water treatment plant and the consumer tap. The aim of this study is to describe the behaviour of trihalomethanes in three French water distribution systems and develop a mathematical model to predict concentrations in the water distribution system using data collected from treated water at the plant (i.e. the entrance of the distribution system). In 2006 and 2007, samples were taken successively from treated water at the plant and at several points in the water distribution system in three French cities. In addition to the concentrations of the four trihalomethanes (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), many other parameters involved in their formation that affect their concentration were also measured. The average trihalomethane concentration in the three water distribution systems ranged from 21.6 μg/L to 59.9 μg/L. The increase in trihalomethanes between the treated water at the plant and a given point in the water distribution system varied by a factor of 1.1-5.7 over all of the samples. A log-log linear regression model was constructed to predict THM concentrations in the water distribution system. The five variables used were trihalomethane concentration and free residual chlorine for treated water at the plant, two variables that characterize the reactivity of organic matter (specific UV absorbance (SUVA), an indicator developed for the free

  1. Seasonal variation for the antidiabetic activity ofLoranthus micranthus methanol extract

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Patience Ogoamaka Osadebe; Edwin Ogechukwu Omeje; Philip Felix Uzor; Ernest Kenechukwu David; Damian Chiedozie Obiorah

    2010-01-01

    Objective:To determine the season in which the Eastern Nigeria mistletoe,Loranthus micranthus, parasitic onPersea americana possesses optimum antidiabetic activity and to determine the seasonal variation in the constituents.Methods: The antidiabetic activities of the aqueous methanol extracts of the leaves of Eastern Nigeria mistletoe,Loranthus micranthus, harvested in two seasons of the year, the onset of rainy season (April) and the peak of rainy season (July) were compared. The tests were carried out on six (6) groups (A-F) of alloxan-induced diabetic rats. Groups A and B received 200 mg/kg and 400 mg/kg of the April sample extracts respectively while groups C and D received same doses of the July sample extracts. Group E and F which were the positive and negative controls received 10 mg/kg of glibenclamide and 2 ml/kg of 3% tween 20 respectively. The blood glucose levels of the animals were monitored hourly with a glucometer for six hours. The phytochemical analysis of the plant extracts were also carried out by standard procedures.Results: The results showed that group A and B exhibited significant (P0.05) FBS reduction (15.9%) while group D exhibited highly significant (P<0.01) reduction (47.5%) with the maximum reduction occurring after 6 hours. The phytochemical analysis of the crude methanol extracts revealed the presence of carbohydrates, glycosides, saponins, tannins, flavonoids, steroids, terpenoids, acidic compounds, resins and oils. These were present in different proportions in both seasons.Conclusions: This study shows that there is a seasonal, dose-dependent variation in the chemical compositionviz-a-viz the antidiabetic activity of the plant under study. This activity is highest at the peak of the rainy season.

  2. Effect of Salinity Variations on the Performance of Activated Sludge System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIAN-LONG WANG; XIN-MIN ZHAN; YE-CHENG FENG; YI QIAN

    2005-01-01

    Objective To investigate the influence of salinity variations on the performance of activated sludge systems, treating domestic wastewater. Methods The completely mixed reactor was used and operated in a batch-wise mode. The activated sludge taken from the Gaobeidian Wastewater Treatment Plant was used as a seeding sludge. Total organic carbon (TOC), oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and suspended solids (SS) were used as parameters to characterize the performance of the treatment systems. TOC was measured using a TOC-analyzer (TOC-5000, Japan). The OUR value was measured with a dissolved oxygen meter (YSI model-58). SS was measured gravimetrically. Results The TOC removal efficiency and the OUR value of activated sludge were not deteriorated when the NaCl shock concentration was less than 0.5 g/L. However, when the NaCl shock concentrations were up to 10g/L and 20 g/L, the OUR of activated sludge was reduced by 35% and TOC removal efficiency was dropped by 30%, compared with the control experiment without NaCl shock loading. Conclusion The effect of NaCl shock loading on the activated sludge wastewater treatment system is dependant upon the NaCl concentrations and the degree of influence can be inferred through the change of substrate utilization rate at different shock NaCl loadings.

  3. [Influence of human activities on groundwater environment based on coefficient variation method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Lin, Jian; Wang, Shu-Fang; Liu, Ji-Lai; Chen, Zhong-Rong; Kou, Wen-Jie

    2013-04-01

    Groundwater system in the plain area of Beijing can be divided into six subsystems. Due to the different hydrogeological conditions of the subsystems, the degrees to which human activities affect the subsystems are also diverse. In order to evaluate the influence of human activities on each subsystem, the first and second aquifer with relatively poor water quality were chosen to be the evaluating positions, based on the data of groundwater sampled in September, 2011. With respect to human activities affect index such as total hardness, TDS, sulfate and ammonium, variation coefficient methods were used to calculate the weight of each index. Then scores were obtained for each index with national standard as reference, and superposition calculations were used to gain comprehensive scores, finally the groundwater quality conditions were evaluated. Contrast analyses were used to evaluate the incidence of human activities with groundwater subsystems as evaluation unit and water quality partitions as evaluation factors. The results indicate that the influence of human activities on the first aquifer is greater than that of the second aquifer, the Yongding river groundwater subsystems and the Chaobai river groundwater subsystems are affected more than other groundwater subsystems.

  4. Factors Predicting Physical Activity Among Children With Special Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Yazdani, MD

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Obesity is especially prevalent among children with special needs. Both lack of physical activity and unhealthful eating are major contributing factors. The objective of our study was to investigate barriers to physical activity among these children. Methods We surveyed parents of the 171 children attending Vista Del Mar School in Los Angeles, a nonprofit school serving a socioeconomically diverse group of children with special needs from kindergarten through 12th grade. Parents were asked about their child’s and their own physical activity habits, barriers to their child’s exercise, and demographics. The response rate was 67%. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine predictors of children being physically active at least 3 hours per week. Results Parents reported that 45% of the children were diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, 38% with autism, and 34% with learning disabilities; 47% of children and 56% of parents were physically active less than 3 hours per week. The top barriers to physical activity were reported as child’s lack of interest (43%, lack of developmentally appropriate programs (33%, too many behavioral problems (32%, and parents’ lack of time (29%. However, child’s lack of interest was the only parent-reported barrier independently associated with children’s physical activity. Meanwhile, children whose parents were physically active at least 3 hours per week were 4.2 times as likely to be physically active as children whose parents were less physically active (P = .01. Conclusion In this group of students with special needs, children’s physical activity was strongly associated with parental physical activity; parent-reported barriers may have had less direct effect. Further studies should examine the importance of parental physical activity among children with special needs.

  5. Epigenetic variation in the serotonin transporter gene predicts resting state functional connectivity strength within the salience-network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muehlhan, Markus; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Alexander, Nina

    2015-11-01

    Genetic variation in the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) has been associated with psychopathology and aberrant brain functioning in a plethora of clinical and imaging studies. In contrast, the neurobiological correlates of epigenetic signatures in SLC6A4, such as DNA methylation profiles, have only recently been explored in human brain imaging research. The present study is the first to apply a resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging approach to identify changes in brain networks related to SLC6A4 promoter methylation (N=74 healthy individuals). The amygdalae were defined as seed regions given that resting state functional connectivity in this brain area is under serotonergic control and relates to a broad range of psychiatric phenotypes. We further used bisulfite pyrosequencing to analyze quantitative methylation at 83 CpG sites within a promoter-associated CpG island of SLC6A4 from blood-derived DNA samples. The major finding of this study indicates a positive relation of SLC6A4 promoter methylation and amygdaloid resting state functional coupling with key nodes of the salience network (SN) including the anterior insulae and the dorsal anterior cingulate cortices. Increased intra-network connectivity in the SN is thought to facilitate the detection and subsequent processing of potentially negative stimuli and reflects a core feature of psychopathology. As such, epigenetic changes within the SLC6A4 gene predict connectivity patterns in clinically and behaviorally relevant brain networks which may in turn convey increased disease susceptibility. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Prediction About Future Plant Phenology Variation in China%中国植物物候变化预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赖欣; 范广洲; 刘雅星

    2011-01-01

    根据中国20个观测站点的木本、草本植物物候资料,结合气温、降水资料,预测了1989~2099年植物始展叶期、始花期物候,结果表明:未来我国气温、降水、季节开始时间变化,对我国植物物候期有明显的影响,其中气温对物候期的作用最为显著。春季气温升高,春季物候期提前,未来全国5区植物始展叶期、始花期均以显著的提前趋势为主,植物春季物候期提前主要是1989~2099年春季增温、春季开始时间提前所造成。%Based on plants phenological observation data of 20 stations in China and combined with daily temprature and precipitation data throughout China,the phenological phases during the beginning period of expanded leaves and first flowering period from 1989 to 2099 are predicted.The results show that the variation of temperature,precipitation and starting dates of each season would obviously affect the plants phenological phases,and the influence of temperature change on phenological phases would be most significant.When spring temperature increases,the spring phenological phases would advance.In five areas of China,the beginning period of expanded leaves and first flowering period would significantly advance in future because of temperature increase and spring starting date advance during 1989-2099.

  7. Solar-Cycle Variation of Subsurface-Flow Divergence: A Proxy of Magnetic Activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komm, R.; Howe, R.; Hill, F.

    2017-09-01

    We study the solar-cycle variation of subsurface flows from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm. We have analyzed Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Dopplergrams with a ring-diagram analysis covering about 15 years and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Dopplergrams covering more than 6 years. After subtracting the average rotation rate and meridional flow, we have calculated the divergence of the horizontal residual flows from the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 through the declining phase of Cycle 24. The subsurface flows are mainly divergent at quiet regions and convergent at locations of high magnetic activity. The relationship is essentially linear between divergence and magnetic activity at all activity levels at depths shallower than about 10 Mm. At greater depths, the relationship changes sign at locations of high activity; the flows are increasingly divergent at locations with a magnetic activity index (MAI) greater than about 24 G. The flows are more convergent by about a factor of two during the rising phase of Cycle 24 than during the declining phase of Cycle 23 at locations of medium and high activity (about 10 to 40 G MAI) from the surface to at least 10 Mm. The subsurface divergence pattern of Solar Cycle 24 first appears during the declining phase of Cycle 23 and is present during the extended minimum. It appears several years before the magnetic pattern of the new cycle is noticeable in synoptic maps. Using linear regression, we estimate the amount of magnetic activity that would be required to generate the precursor pattern and find that it should be almost twice the amount of activity that is observed.

  8. Temporal variations in microbial activities and carbon turnover in subtidal sandy sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böer, S. I.; Arnosti, C.; van Beusekom, J. E. E.; Boetius, A.

    2009-07-01

    Temporal dynamics and vertical patterns in bacterial abundances and activities were studied in a shallow subtidal sand flat in the Sylt-Rømø Basin (North Frisian Wadden Sea, Germany). Extracellular enzymatic activities, bacterial carbon production and community respiration showed strong (factor of 4-5) temporal variations that were mostly related to seasonal temperature change and to changes in substrate availability. These temporal patterns in enzymatic activity were barely reflected in bacterial (200-400 mmol C m-2) and microphytobenthic biomass (800-1500 mmol C m-2) or the sedimentary carbohydrate inventory (1300-2900 mmol C m-2), suggesting that grazing controls the standing stocks of the microphytobenthic and bacterial assemblages. Despite their exposure to strong hydrodynamic forces such as tidal currents and wind-induced wave surge, the subtidal sandy sediments showed persistent vertical gradients in bacterial abundances, carbon production and extracellular enzymatic activities at all times. The vertical distribution of these parameters was tightly coupled to that of the microphytobenthos, dominated by diatoms. Despite the low organic carbon content typical for surge-exposed sandy sediments, high extracellular enzymatic activities and bacterial carbon production rates indicate a very active heterotrophic bacterial community, with a gross secondary productivity of 30-180 mmol C m-2, and a biomass turnover time of 2-18 days. Our data suggest that this high activity is supported by the rapid flux of carbohydrates from microphytobenthic primary productivity. Accordingly, the potential activities of enzymes hydrolyzing carbohydrates cover most of the total bacterial carbon demand during all seasons.

  9. Temporal variations in microbial activities and carbon turnover in subtidal sandy sediments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Boetius

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Temporal dynamics and vertical patterns in bacterial abundances and activities were studied in a shallow subtidal sand flat in the Sylt-Rømø Basin (North Frisian Wadden Sea, Germany. Extracellular enzymatic activities, bacterial carbon production and community respiration showed strong (factor of 4–5 temporal variations that were mostly related to seasonal temperature change and to changes in substrate availability. These temporal patterns in enzymatic activity were barely reflected in bacterial (200–400 mmol C m−2 and microphytobenthic biomass (800–1500 mmol C m−2 or the sedimentary carbohydrate inventory (1300–2900 mmol C m−2, suggesting that grazing controls the standing stocks of the microphytobenthic and bacterial assemblages. Despite their exposure to strong hydrodynamic forces such as tidal currents and wind-induced wave surge, the subtidal sandy sediments showed persistent vertical gradients in bacterial abundances, carbon production and extracellular enzymatic activities at all times. The vertical distribution of these parameters was tightly coupled to that of the microphytobenthos, dominated by diatoms. Despite the low organic carbon content typical for surge-exposed sandy sediments, high extracellular enzymatic activities and bacterial carbon production rates indicate a very active heterotrophic bacterial community, with a gross secondary productivity of 30–180 mmol C m−2, and a biomass turnover time of 2–18 days. Our data suggest that this high activity is supported by the rapid flux of carbohydrates from microphytobenthic primary productivity. Accordingly, the potential activities of enzymes hydrolyzing carbohydrates cover most of the total bacterial carbon demand during all seasons.

  10. Variation in actigraphy-estimated rest-activity patterns by demographic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Jonathan A; Quante, Mirja; Godbole, Suneeta; James, Peter; Hipp, J Aaron; Marinac, Catherine R; Mariani, Sara; Cespedes Feliciano, Elizabeth M; Glanz, Karen; Laden, Francine; Wang, Rui; Weng, Jia; Redline, Susan; Kerr, Jacqueline

    2017-06-26

    Rest-activity patterns provide an indication of circadian rhythmicity in the free-living setting. We aimed to describe the distributions of rest-activity patterns in a sample of adults and children across demographic variables. A sample of adults (N = 590) and children (N = 58) wore an actigraph on their nondominant wrist for 7 days and nights. We generated rest-activity patterns from cosinor analysis (MESOR, acrophase and magnitude) and nonparametric circadian rhythm analysis (IS: interdaily stability; IV: intradaily variability; L5: least active 5-hour period; M10: most active 10-hour period; and RA: relative amplitude). Demographic variables included age, sex, race, education, marital status, and income. Linear mixed-effects models were used to test for demographic differences in rest-activity patterns. Adolescents, compared to younger children, had (1) later M10 midpoints (β = 1.12 hours [95% CI: 0.43, 1.18] and lower M10 activity levels; (2) later L5 midpoints (β = 1.6 hours [95% CI: 0.9, 2.3]) and lower L5 activity levels; (3) less regular rest-activity patterns (lower IS and higher IV); and 4) lower magnitudes (β = -0.95 [95% CI: -1.28, -0.63]) and relative amplitudes (β = -0.1 [95% CI: -0.14, -0.06]). Mid-to-older adults, compared to younger adults (aged 18-29 years), had (1) earlier M10 midpoints (β = -1.0 hours [95% CI: -1.6, -0.4]; (2) earlier L5 midpoints (β = -0.7 hours [95% CI: -1.2, -0.2]); and (3) more regular rest-activity patterns (higher IS and lower IV). The magnitudes and relative amplitudes were similar across the adult age categories. Sex, race and education level rest-activity differences were also observed. Rest-activity patterns vary across the lifespan, and differ by race, sex and education. Understanding population variation in these patterns provides a foundation for further elucidating the health implications of rest-activity patterns across the lifespan.

  11. Seasonal and spatial variations in microbial activity at various phylogenetic resolutions at a groundwater – surface water interface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Ran; Smets, Barth F.; Gan, Ping;

    2014-01-01

    analysis. Consistently higher microbial activities with less variation in depth were measured in the AIMC traps than in the ambient sediments. Flood disturbance appeared to control AIMC activity distributions at the gradually elevated GSI. The highest AIMC activities were generally obtained from locations...

  12. VARIATIONS IN THE COMPLEMENT ACTIVITY AND FIXABILITY OF GUINEA PIG SERUM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noguchi, H; Bronfenbrenner, J

    1911-01-01

    The following conclusions may be drawn from the foregoing series of experiments. The complementary activity varies within a definite limit in different specimens of guinea pig serum. With sera which stood in contact with the clot for twenty hours, the strongest and weakest were in the ratio of 0.015 cubic centimeter to 0.04 cubic centimeter. The former was 2.66 times stronger than the latter. The variation observed with the same series of sera after forty-six hours was still more striking. The strongest was 0.013 cubic centimeter, and the weakest, 0.06 cubic centimeter, that is, the former was 4.6 times stronger than the latter. These findings agree with those made by Massol and Grysez. The variations were not so marked with the majority of sera. It is noteworthy that a large number of the sera gained in the complementary activity when remaining in contact with the clot for forty-six hours, while some sera became weakened during the same length of time. The amount of serum fixed by given constant quantities of syphilitic serum and antigen varies much more markedly than the variations in their complementary activity. One serum failed altogether to be fixed. On the other hand, one sample of serum was so easily fixable that 0.24 cubic centimeter (corresponding to 9.6 complement units of this specimen) disappeared, while the average quantity fixed was only 0.098 cubic centimeter (corresponding to 4.64 complement units). The normal standard of fixability was shown in about 50 per cent. of the specimens examined. If the zone of normal fixability is enlarged in both directions by one unit, the percentage of normal fixability would become 65.8. There is no definite relationship between the complementary activity and the fixability of a given specimen of guinea pig serum. The facts derived from our present experiments, especially in regard to the exceptions in the fixative quality of this serum, demand the utmost precaution from those intending to employ it for diagnostic

  13. LSD-induced entropic brain activity predicts subsequent personality change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedev, A V; Kaelen, M; Lövdén, M; Nilsson, J; Feilding, A; Nutt, D J; Carhart-Harris, R L

    2016-09-01

    Personality is known to be relatively stable throughout adulthood. Nevertheless, it has been shown that major life events with high personal significance, including experiences engendered by psychedelic drugs, can have an enduring impact on some core facets of personality. In the present, balanced-order, placebo-controlled study, we investigated biological predictors of post-lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) changes in personality. Nineteen healthy adults underwent resting state functional MRI scans under LSD (75µg, I.V.) and placebo (saline I.V.). The Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) was completed at screening and 2 weeks after LSD/placebo. Scanning sessions consisted of three 7.5-min eyes-closed resting-state scans, one of which involved music listening. A standardized preprocessing pipeline was used to extract measures of sample entropy, which characterizes the predictability of an fMRI time-series. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate drug-induced shifts in brain entropy and their relationship with the observed increases in the personality trait openness at the 2-week follow-up. Overall, LSD had a pronounced global effect on brain entropy, increasing it in both sensory and hierarchically higher networks across multiple time scales. These shifts predicted enduring increases in trait openness. Moreover, the predictive power of the entropy increases was greatest for the music-listening scans and when "ego-dissolution" was reported during the acute experience. These results shed new light on how LSD-induced shifts in brain dynamics and concomitant subjective experience can be predictive of lasting changes in personality. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3203-3213, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Activity Profile and Between-Match Variation in Elite Male Field Hockey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunderland, Caroline D; Edwards, Phillip L

    2017-03-01

    Sunderland, CD and Edwards, PL. Activity profile and between-match variation in elite male field hockey. J Strength Cond Res 31(3): 758-764, 2017-This study aimed to (a) provide a position-specific activity profile for elite male hockey players, (b) determine if the activity profile was altered by the introduction of the "self-pass" rule, and (c) provide information relating to match-to-match variability in elite male field hockey. The activity of 28 elite male field hockey players was analyzed over 2 seasons totaling 395 player-match analyses using Global Positioning Satellite technology. Total distance, high-speed running (>15.5 km·h), sprinting (>20 km·h), and mean speed were recorded. Players were categorized into 4 positions: fullback (FB), halfback (HB), midfield (M), and forward (F). Data were analyzed using a 2-way analysis of variance (season, position) and between-match coefficients of variation (CV). The time played differs with position (FB: 65.5 ± 5.3, HB: 49.5 ± 11.5, M: 45.9 ± 7.1, F: 39.5 ± 5.4 minutes; p < 0.0005) and thus affected the activity profile. Total distance covered was greater for fullbacks (FB: 8,001 ± 447, HB: 6,435 ± 1,399, M: 6,415 ± 908, F: 5,844 ± 762 m, p < 0.001), and mean speed and percentage time spent high-speed running and sprinting were greater for forwards than all other positions (HSR: FB: 6.8 ± 1.0, HB: 8.8 ± 1.3, M: 10.7 ± 1.2, F: 13.5 ± 1.8%, p < 0.001). The activity profile did not differ with the introduction of the self-pass. Match-to-match variability (CV) ranged from 5.0% to 22.0% for total and sprint distance, respectively. This is the first study to present an activity profile of elite men's field hockey and its associated variability and demonstrates that each position is unique, and therefore, training and recovery should be position specific.

  15. Measuring disease activity to predict therapeutic outcome in Graves' ophthalmopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwee, C.B.; Prummel, M.F.; Gerding, M.N.; Kahaly, G.J.; Dekker, F.W.; Wiersinga, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The concept of disease activity in Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) might explain why as many as one-third of patients do not respond to immunosuppressive treatment, because only patients in the active stage of disease are expected to respond. The hypothesis was adopted that a parameter used

  16. Measuring disease activity to predict therapeutic outcome in Graves' ophthalmopathy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwee, C.B.; Prummel, M.F.; Gerding, M.N.; Kahaly, G.J.; Dekker, F.W.; Wiersinga, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The concept of disease activity in Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) might explain why as many as one-third of patients do not respond to immunosuppressive treatment, because only patients in the active stage of disease are expected to respond. The hypothesis was adopted that a parameter used t

  17. A Malaria Ecology Index Predicted Spatial and Temporal Variation of Malaria Burden and Efficacy of Antimalarial Interventions Based on African Serological Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, Gordon C; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K

    2017-03-01

    AbstractReducing the global health burden of malaria is complicated by weak reporting systems for infectious diseases and a paucity of vital statistics registration. This limits our ability to predict changes in malaria health burden intensity, target antimalarial resources where needed, and identify malaria impacts in retrospective data. We refined and deployed a temporally and spatially varying Malaria Ecology Index (MEI) incorporating climatological and ecological data to estimate malaria transmission strength and validate it against cross-sectional serology data from 39,875 children from seven sub-Saharan African countries. The MEI is strongly associated with malaria burden; a 1 standard deviation higher MEI is associated with a 50-117% increase in malaria risk and a 3-5 g/dL lower level of Hg. Results show that the relationship between malaria ecology and disease burden is attenuated with sufficient coverage of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Having both ITNs and IRS reduce the added risk from adverse malaria ecology conditions by half. Readily available climate and ecology data can be used to estimate the spatial and temporal variation in malaria disease burden, providing a feasible alternative to direct surveillance. This will help target resources for malaria programs in the absence of national coverage of active case detection systems, and facilitate malaria research using retrospective health data.

  18. Magnetic activity and orbital period variation of the eclipsing binary KV Gem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liyun; Pi, Qingfeng; Yang, Yuangui; Li, Zhongmu

    2014-02-01

    This paper presents new CCD BVRI light curves of a neglected eclipsing binary KV Gem. Our new light curves were obtained in 2010 and 2011 at the Xinglong station of the National Astronomical Observatories, China. By analyzing all available light minimum times, we derived an update ephemeris and found there existed a cyclic variation overlaying a continuous period decrease. This kind of cyclic variation may probably be attributed to the light-time effect via the presence of an unseen third body or magnetic activity cycle. The long-term period decrease suggests that KV Gem is undergoing a mass transfer from the secondary component to the primary component at a rate of 3.4(0.3)×(10-7 M⊙/year for period decrease and a third body (10.3±0.2 years), and 5.5(0.6)×10-7 M⊙/year for decrease and magnetic cycle (8.8±0.1 years). By analyzing the light curves in 2011, photometric solutions and starspots parameters of the system are obtained using Wilson-Devinney program. Based on the photometric solution in 2011, we still could use the spot model to explain successfully our light curves in 2010 and three published light curves. Comparing the starspot longitudes and factors, KV Gem are variable on a long time scale of about years. For the data of KV Gem, the brightness vary with time around phases 0, 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75, which means that there is a possible photospheric active evolution. More data are needed to monitor to detect stellar cycle of KV Gem. For chromospheric activity of KV Gem, we found strong absorption in the observed Hβ,Hγ, and Ca II H & K spectra, and no obvious emission.

  19. Synchronization by Food Access Modifies the Daily Variations in Expression and Activity of Liver GABA Transaminase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalia De Ita-Pérez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Daytime restricted feeding (DRF is an experimental protocol that influences the circadian timing system and underlies the expression of a biological clock known as the food entrained oscillator (FEO. Liver is the organ that reacts most rapidly to food restriction by adjusting the functional relationship between the molecular circadian clock and the metabolic networks. γ-Aminobutyric acid (GABA is a signaling molecule in the liver, and able to modulate the cell cycle and apoptosis. This study was aimed at characterizing the expression and activity of the mostly mitochondrial enzyme GABA transaminase (GABA-T during DRF/FEO expression. We found that DRF promotes a sustained increase of GABA-T in the liver homogenate and mitochondrial fraction throughout the entire day-night cycle. The higher amount of GABA-T promoted by DRF was not associated to changes in GABA-T mRNA or GABA-T activity. The GABA-T activity in the mitochondrial fraction even tended to decrease during the light period. We concluded that DRF influences the daily variations of GABA-T mRNA levels, stability, and catalytic activity of GABA-T. These data suggest that the liver GABAergic system responds to a metabolic challenge such as DRF and the concomitant appearance of the FEO.

  20. Variations of the Baiu Frontal Activity in the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, T.; Yamaura, T.

    2011-12-01

    In a region to the east of 125°E in the western North Pacific, the Baiu front is defined as a boundary between the two air masses, i.e., the Ogasawara maritime tropical (OMT) air mass in the subtropical Pacific high and the Okhotsk maritime polar (OMP) air mass to the north. The equivalent potential temperature (EPT), which is calculated from temperature and humidity, is suitable to express such air masses, and its meridional gradient determines the boundary, i.e., the Baiu front. This work defines the strength of the Baiu frontal activity (BFA) as the size of the meridional gradient of EPT and examines the variability during the Baiu season measured by the northward shift of the Baiu front from 30° to 40°N. The climatological change of the strength of BFA is controlled by the covariability of OMT and OMP air masses. In the early half of the Baiu season, a distance between the two air masses is small, which results in the strong BFA. In the later half, the northward shift of the northern OMP air mass is accelerated and that of the OMT one slows down, leading the weakening of BFA. The small meridional gradient of EPT is also suitable for a rapid northward shift of the Baiu front or a sudden end of the Baiu season. The interannual variability of BFA is controlled by a balance of the two air masses. The associated anomalies in EPT appear in and around Japan, indicating which air mass is predominant there. The dominant periods are 3-4 years, but the variability has no correlation with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual variation also has insignificant correlation with that of the onset and closing dates of the Baiu season. Not only tropical but also extratropical variations, or the covariability of these two variations are significant for the interannual variability of BFA.

  1. Combining Satellite Observations of Fire Activity and Numerical Weather Prediction to Improve the Prediction of Smoke Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, D. A.; Wang, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Ichoku, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    Smoke emissions estimates used in air quality and visibility forecasting applications are currently limited by the information content of satellite fire observations, and the lack of a skillful short-term forecast of changes in fire activity. This study explores the potential benefits of a recently developed sub-pixel-based calculation of fire radiative power (FRPf) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which provides more precise estimates of the radiant energy (over the retrieved fire area) that in turn, improves estimates of the thermal buoyancy of smoke plumes and may be helpful characterizing the meteorological effects on fire activity for large fire events. Results show that unlike the current FRP product, the incorporation of FRPf produces a statistically significant correlation (R = 0.42) with smoke plume height data provided by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and several meteorological variables, such as surface wind speed and temperature, which may be useful for discerning cases where smoke was injected above the boundary layer. Drawing from recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP), this study also examines the meteorological conditions characteristic of fire ignition, growth, decay, and extinction, which are used to develop an automated, 24-hour prediction of satellite fire activity. Satellite fire observations from MODIS and geostationary sensors show that the fire prediction model is an improvement (RMSE reduction of 13 - 20%) over the forecast of persistence commonly used by near-real-time fire emission inventories. The ultimate goal is to combine NWP data and satellite fire observations to improve both analysis and prediction of biomass-burning emissions, through improved understanding of the interactions between fire activity and weather at scales appropriate for operational modeling. This is a critical step toward producing a global fire prediction model and improving operational forecasts of

  2. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...... for solving the nonconvex optimization problem is proposed in this paper. A simulation using the nonlinear model-based controller to control the temperature levels of an intelligent office building (PowerFlexHouse) is addressed. Its performance is compared with a linear model-based controller. The nonlinear...

  3. In normal human fibroblasts variation in DSB repair capacity cannot be ascribed to radiation-induced changes in the localisation, expression or activity of major NHEJ proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasten-Pisula, Ulla; Vronskaja, Svetlana; Overgaard, Jens

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to test whether for normal human fibroblasts the variation in double-strand break (DSB) repair capacity results from radiation-induced differences in localisation, expression or activity of major non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) proteins....... MATERIALS AND METHODS: Experiments were performed with 11 normal human fibroblast strains AF01-11. NHEJ proteins were determined by Western blot and DNA-PK activity by pulldown-assay. RESULTS: The four NHEJ proteins tested (Ku70, Ku80, XRCC4 and DNA-PKcs) were found to be localised almost exclusively...... in the activity of the DNA-PK complex induced upon irradiation. CONCLUSIONS: For normal human fibroblasts, the level or activity of NHEJ proteins measured prior to or after irradiation cannot be used to predict the DSB repair capacity or cellular radiosensitivity. Udgivelsesdato: 2008-Mar...

  4. Transfer Student Success: Educationally Purposeful Activities Predictive of Undergraduate GPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauria, Renee M.; Fuller, Matthew B.

    2015-01-01

    Researchers evaluated the effects of Educationally Purposeful Activities (EPAs) on transfer and nontransfer students' cumulative GPAs. Hierarchical, linear, and multiple regression models yielded seven statistically significant educationally purposeful items that influenced undergraduate student GPAs. Statistically significant positive EPAs for…

  5. NONINVASIVE DETECTION OF BRAIN ACTIVITY VARIATION UNDER DIFFERENT DEPTH OF ANESTHESIA BY EEG COMPLEXITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Jin; Li Wenwen; Zheng Chongxun; Jing Guixia; Liu Xueliang

    2006-01-01

    Objective To detect the change of brain activity under different depth of anesthesia (DOA)noninvasively. Methods The Lempel-Ziv complexity C(n) was used to analyze EEG and its four components (delta,theta, alpha, beta), which was recorded from SD rats under different DOA. The relationship between C(n) and DOA was studied. Results The C(n) of EEG will decrease while the depth of anesthesia increasing and vice versa. It can be used to detect the change of DOA sensitively. Compared with power spectrum, the change of C(n) is opposite to that of power spectru,. Only the C(n) of delta rhythm has obvious variations induced by the change of DOA, and the variations of delta is as similar as the EEG's. Conclusion The study shows that the desynchronized EEG is replaced by the synchronized EEG when rat goes into anesthesia state from awake, that is just the reason why complexity and power spectrum appear corresponding changes under different DOA. C(n) of delta rhythm dynamic change leads to the change of EEG, and the delta rhythm is the dominant rhythm during anesthesia for rats.

  6. Enabling Predictive Simulation and UQ of Complex Multiphysics PDE Systems by the Development of Goal-Oriented Variational Sensitivity Analysis and a-Posteriori Error Estimation Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estep, Donald [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    2015-11-30

    This project addressed the challenge of predictive computational analysis of strongly coupled, highly nonlinear multiphysics systems characterized by multiple physical phenomena that span a large range of length- and time-scales. Specifically, the project was focused on computational estimation of numerical error and sensitivity analysis of computational solutions with respect to variations in parameters and data. In addition, the project investigated the use of accurate computational estimates to guide efficient adaptive discretization. The project developed, analyzed and evaluated new variational adjoint-based techniques for integration, model, and data error estimation/control and sensitivity analysis, in evolutionary multiphysics multiscale simulations.

  7. Variation of the temperature gradient in the solar photosphere with magnetic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurobert, M.; Balasubramanian, R.; Ricort, G.

    2016-10-01

    Context. The contribution of quiet-Sun regions to the solar irradiance variability is currently unclear. Some solar-cycle variations of the quiet-Sun physical structure, such as the temperature gradient or the photospheric radius, might affect the irradiance. Aims: We intend to investigate possible variations of the photospheric temperature gradient with magnetic activity. Methods: We used high-resolution center-to-limb observations of the FeI 630.15 nm line profile in the quiet Sun performed onboard the Hinode satellite on 2007, December 19, and on 2013, December 7, that is, close to a minimum and a maximum of magnetic activity, respectively. We analyzed samples of 10″ × 10″ internetwork regions. The wings of the FeI 630.15 nm line were used in a non-standard way to recover images at roughly constant continuum optical depths above the continuum formation level. The image formation height is derived from measuring its perspective shift with respect to the continuum image, both observed away from disk center. The measurement relies on a cross-spectral method that is not limited by the spatial resolution of the SOT telescope and does not rely on any radiative transfer computation. The radiation temperature measured in the images is related to the photospheric temperature at their respective formation height. Results: The method allows us to investigate the temperature gradient in the low photosphere at altitudes of between 0 and 60 km above the 500 nm continuum formation height. In this layer the internetwork temperature gradient appears steeper in our 2013 sample than in the sample of 2007 in the northern hemisphere, whereas we detect no significant change in the southern hemisphere. We argue that this might be related to some strong hemispheric asymmetry of the magnetic activity at the solar maximum of cycle 24. Conclusions: Structural changes have been observed in numerical simulations of the magneto-convection at the surface of the Sun where the increase of

  8. Insights into induced earthquakes and aftershock activity with in-situ measurements of seismic velocity variations in an active underground mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenguier, F.; Olivier, G.; Campillo, M.; Roux, P.; Shapiro, N.; Lynch, R.

    2015-12-01

    The behaviour of the crust shortly after large earthquakes has been the subject of numerous studies, but many co- and post-seismic processes remain poorly understood. Damage and healing of the bulk rock mass, post-seismic deformation and the mechanisms of earthquake triggering are still not well understood. These processes are important to properly model and understand the behaviour of faults and earthquake cycles.In this presentation, we will show how in-situ measurements of seismic velocity variations have given new insights into these co- and post-seismic processes. An experiment was performed where a blast was detonated in a tunnel in an underground mine, while seismic velocity variations were accurately (0.005 %) measured with ambient seismic noise correlations. Additionally, aftershock activity was examined and the influence of the removal of a piece of solid rock was estimated with elastic static stress modelling. The majority of the aftershocks were delayed with respect to the passing of the dynamic waves from the blast, while the locations of the aftershocks appeared clustered and not homogeneously spread around the blast location. A significant velocity drop is visible during the time of the blast, which is interpreted as co-seismic damage and plastic deformation. These non-elastic effects are healed by the confining stresses over a period of 5 days until the seismic velocity converges to a new baseline level. The instantaneous weakening and gradual healing observed from the velocity variations are qualitatively similar to results reported in laboratory studies. The change in the baseline level of the seismic velocity before and after the blast indicate a change in the static stress that is comparable to the results of elastic static stress modelling. The differences between the elastic model predictions and the seismic velocity variations could be due to zones of fractured rock, indicated by the spatial clustering of the aftershocks, that are not

  9. Variations in active transport behavior among different neighborhoods and across adult life stages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars Breum; Madsen, Thomas; Schipperijn, Jasper;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Built environment characteristics are closely related to transport behavior, but observed variations could be due to residents own choice of neighborhood called residential self-selection. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in neighborhood walkability and residential...... self-selection across life stages in relation to active transport behavior. METHODS: The IPEN walkability index, which consists of four built environment characteristics, was used to define 16 high and low walkable neighborhoods in Aarhus, Denmark (250.000 inhabitants). Transport behavior was assessed...... using the IPAQ questionnaire. Life stages were categorized in three groups according to age and parental status. A factor analysis was conducted to investigate patterns of self-selection. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out to evaluate the association between walkability...

  10. A note on periodicity of long-term variations of optical continuum in active galactic nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Kai-Xing; Bi, Shao-Lan; Wang, Jian-Min

    2016-01-01

    Graham et al. found a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars from the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) that have long-term periodic variations in optical continuum, the nature of the periodicity remains uncertain. We investigate the periodic variability characteristics of the sample by testing the relations of the observed variability periods with AGN optical luminosity, black hole mass and accretion rates, and find no significant correlations. We also test the observed periods in several different aspects related to accretion disks surrounding single black holes, such as the Keplerian rotational periods of 5100~\\AA\\ photon-emission regions and self-gravity dominated regions and the precessing period of warped disks. These tests shed new lights on understanding AGN variability in general. Under the assumption that the periodic behavior is associated with SMBHB systems in particular, we compare the separations ($\\mathscr{D}_{\\bullet}$) against characteristic radii of broad-line regions (...

  11. Study on Catchment Runoff Variations and Possible Responds to Climate Change and Human Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, J.; Chen, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Under the influence of global climate change and human activities,the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation has changed significantly which drives catchment hydrological processes changes.To better understand the characteristic and causes of runoff variations at different periods which would impacts catchment flood disaster risk, the Utaphao catchment is studied whichis a typical catchment in southern Thailand.Based on daily hydrological data from 1971 to 2014,selecting representative raingauges and stream gauging stations from the catchment as research stations. Using the methods of Mann-Kendall test and serial cluster analysis, this paper studied the characteristics and laws of historical hydrological process in Utaphao catchment, detects the impact of changing environment to watershed hydrological processes,the results show that the runoff and precipitation havesome kinds of changes.

  12. Variations in the mosquito larvicidal activities of toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis ssp. israelensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otieno-Ayayo, Zachariah Ngalo; Zaritsky, Arieh; Wirth, Margaret C; Manasherob, Robert; Khasdan, Vadim; Cahan, Rivka; Ben-Dov, Eitan

    2008-09-01

    Comparing activities of purified toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis ssp. israelensis against larvae of seven mosquito species (vectors of tropical diseases) that belong to three genera, gleaned from the literature, disclosed highly significant variations in the levels of LC(50) as well as in the hierarchy of susceptibilities. Similar toxicity comparisons were performed between nine transgenic Gram-negative species, four of which are cyanobacterial, expressing various combinations of cry genes, cyt1Aa and p20, against larvae of four mosquito species as potential agents for biological control. Reasons for inconsistencies are listed and discussed. Standard conditions for toxin isolation and presentation to larvae are sought. A set of lyophilized powders prepared identically from six Escherichia coli clones expressing combinations of four genes displayed toxicities against larvae of three mosquito species, with levels that differed between them but with identical hierarchy.

  13. The influence of geographic variations on the muscular activity in selected sports movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarys, J P; Alewaeters, K; Zinzen, E

    2001-12-01

    Surface EMG (SEMG) has been used frequently to study motion techniques or skills, body positions, material or equipment used, training-methodology and learning processes in sports and ergonomics. Little if any information is available on the effect of the geographical environment on the neuromuscular control of an athlete or workman during his/her performance or effort. Motions were chosen in Alpine skiing and cycling. Thirty-one certified ski instructors and twelve professional road cyclists participated in the study of geographical variance and its impact on muscle activity. SEMG was measured from the agonists and antagonists of the upper- and lower limb. Skiers were measured on downhill slopes ranging from 19 to 51% while the cyclists performed with different saddle positions on 2, 7 and 12% slope inclinations, respectively. Verification of the variation of muscular intensity (IEMG) over the slope inclination during a simulated giant slalom indicated that the muscular activity increased with increasing slope angle and decreased with decreasing slope angle, while heart rate measured with short-range radio telemetry increased at a constant rate between start and finish independent of the geographical variations. In a direct descent on different slopes % levels the integrated EMG is well related to the inclination (r=0.82) confirming the findings of the giant slalom. In cycling we found that, regardless of the pelvis position, the muscular intensity of lower limb muscles increased with increasing slope inclination, while the muscular intensity of the arms decreased with the same increasing slope inclination. In addition the decreased intensity of the arm muscles remained significantly higher with the pelvis (saddle) fully forward. The geography of the terrain did influence the neuromuscular work and therewith probably the performance also. The influence however, varies with specific circumstances and is coupled with items of variability of the equipment used and

  14. On dependence of seismic activity on 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Khachikyan, Galina; Breusov, Nikolay

    2014-05-01

    It is found in the last decades that seismic activity of the Earth has a tendency to increase with decreasing solar activity (increasing cosmic rays). A good example of this effect may be the growing number of catastrophic earthquakes in the recent rather long solar minimum. Such results support idea on existence a solar-lithosphere relationship which, no doubts, is a part of total pattern of solar-terrestrial relationships. The physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships is not developed yet. It is believed at present that one of the main contenders for such mechanism may be the global electric circuit (GEC) - vertical current loops, piercing and electrodynamically coupling all geospheres. It is also believed, that the upper boundary of the GEC is located at the magnetopause, where magnetic field of the solar wind reconnects with the geomagnetic field, that results in penetrating solar wind energy into the earth's environment. The effectiveness of the GEC operation depends on intensity of cosmic rays (CR), which ionize the air in the middle atmosphere and provide its conductivity. In connection with the foregoing, it can be expected: i) quantitatively, an increasing seismic activity from solar maximum to solar minimum may be in the same range as increasing CR flux; and ii) in those regions of the globe, where the crust is shipped by the magnetic field lines with number L= ~ 2.0, which are populated by anomalous cosmic rays (ACR), the relationship of seismic activity with variations in solar activity will be manifested most clearly, since there is a pronounced dependence of ACR on solar activity variations. Checking an assumption (i) with data of the global seismological catalog of the NEIC, USGS for 1973-2010, it was found that yearly number of earthquake with magnitude M≥4.5 varies into the 11 year solar cycle in a quantitative range of about 7-8% increasing to solar minimum, that qualitatively and quantitatively as well is in agreement with the

  15. Solar activity variations of nocturnal thermospheric meridional winds over Indian longitude sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madhav Haridas, M. K.; Manju, G.; Arunamani, T.

    2016-09-01

    The night time F-layer base height information from ionosondes located at two equatorial stations Trivandrum (TRV 8.5°N, 77°E) and Sriharikota (SHAR 13.7°N, 80.2°E) spanning over two decades are used to derive the climatology of equatorial nocturnal Thermospheric Meridional Winds (TMWs) prevailing during High Solar Activity (HSA) and Low Solar Activity (LSA) epochs. The important inferences from the analysis are 1) Increase in mean equatorward winds observed during LSA compared to HSA during pre midnight hours; 25 m/s for VE (Vernal Equinox) and 20 m/s for SS (Summer Solstice), AE (autumnal Equinox) and WS (Winter Solstice). 2) Mean wind response to Solar Flux Unit (SFU) is established quantitatively for all seasons for pre-midnight hours; rate of increase is 0.25 m/s/SFU for VE, 0.2 m/s/SFU for SS and WS and 0.08 m/s/SFU for AE. 3) Theoretical estimates of winds for the two epochs are performed and indicate the role of ion drag forcing as a major factor influencing TMWs. 4) Observed magnitude of winds and rate of flux dependencies are compared to thermospheric wind models. 5) Equinoctial asymmetry in TMWs is observed for HSA at certain times, with more equatorward winds during AE. These observations lend a potential to parameterize the wind components and effectively model the winds, catering to solar activity variations.

  16. Seasonal variations in notification of active tuberculosis cases in China, 2005-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Xu Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB incidence has been described in many countries, it remains unknown in China. METHODS: A time series decomposition analysis (X-12-ARIMA was performed to examine the seasonal variation in active TB cases nationwide from 2005 through 2012 in China. Seasonal amplitude was calculated for the evaluation of TB seasonal variation. RESULTS: A total of 7.78 million active TB cases were reported over a period of 8 years. A spring peak (April was observed with seasonal amplitude of 46.3%, compared with the winter trough (February. Most cases in provinces with subtropical and tropical monsoon climate showed lower amplitudes than those in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions. The magnitude of seasonality varied inversely with annual average temperature, r (95% CI = -0.71 (-0.79, -0.61. The seasonal amplitudes were 56.7, 60.5, 40.6, 46.4 and 50.9% for patients aged ≤14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64, and ≥65 years, respectively. Students demonstrated greater seasonal amplitude than peasants, migrant workers and workers (115.3% vs. 43.5, 41.6 and 48.1%. Patients with pulmonary TB had lower amplitude compared to patients with pleural and other extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB (45.9% vs. 52.0 and 56.3%. Relapse cases with sputum smear positive TB (SS+ TB had significantly higher seasonal amplitude compared to new cases with sputum smear positive TB (52.2% vs. 41.6%. CONCLUSIONS: TB is a seasonal disease in China. The peak and trough of TB transmission actually are in winter and in autumn respectively after factors of delay are removed. Higher amplitudes of TB seasonality are more likely to happen in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions and regions with lower annual average temperature, and young person, students, patients with EPTB and relapse cases with SS+ TB are more likely to be affected by TB seasonality.

  17. Farnesoid X receptor (FXR activation and FXR genetic variation in inflammatory bowel disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rian M Nijmeijer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We previously showed that activation of the bile salt nuclear receptor Farnesoid X Receptor (FXR protects against intestinal inflammation in mice. Reciprocally, these inflammatory mediators may decrease FXR activation. We investigated whether FXR activation is repressed in the ileum and colon of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD patients in remission. Additionally, we evaluated whether genetic variation in FXR is associated with IBD. METHODS: mRNA expression of FXR and FXR target gene SHP was determined in ileal and colonic biopsies of patients with Crohn's colitis (n = 15 and ulcerative colitis (UC; n = 12, all in clinical remission, and healthy controls (n = 17. Seven common tagging SNPs and two functional SNPs in FXR were genotyped in 2355 Dutch IBD patients (1162 Crohn's disease (CD and 1193 UC and in 853 healthy controls. RESULTS: mRNA expression of SHP in the ileum is reduced in patients with Crohn's colitis but not in patients with UC compared to controls. mRNA expression of villus marker Villin was correlated with FXR and SHP in healthy controls, a correlation that was weaker in UC patients and absent in CD patients. None of the SNPs was associated with IBD, UC or CD, nor with clinical subgroups of CD. CONCLUSIONS: FXR activation in the ileum is decreased in patients with Crohn's colitis. This may be secondary to altered enterohepatic circulation of bile salts or transrepression by inflammatory signals but does not seem to be caused by the studied SNPs in FXR. Increasing FXR activity by synthetic FXR agonists may have benefit in CD patients.

  18. Latitudinal variations in seasonal activity of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV: a global comparative review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Bloom-Feshbach

    Full Text Available There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet to further characterize seasonal parameters.Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03. Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in

  19. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Chang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe basin located in northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million. The results from the three methods show that both human activity and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow, and the estimates of climate variability impacts from the hydrological models are similar to those from the elasticity-based method. Compared with the baseline period of 1960–1970, streamflow greatly decreased during 2001–2010. The change impacts of human activity and climate variability in 2001–2010 were about 83.5 and 16.5% of the total reduction respectively when averaged over the three methods. The maximum contribution value of human activity was appeared in 1981–1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal, which was 95, 112.5 and 92.4% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. The maximum value of the aridity index (E0/P was 1.91 appeared in 1991–2000. Compared with 1960–1970 baseline period, climate variability made the greatest contributions reduction in 1991–2000, which was 47.4, 43.9 and 29.9% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occurre in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty and elasticity-based method (model parameter in climate change impact studies.

  20. Predicting child physical activity and screen time: parental support for physical activity and general parenting styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Shelby L; Crain, A Lauren; Senso, Meghan M; Levy, Rona L; Sherwood, Nancy E

    2014-07-01

    To examine relationships between parenting styles and practices and child moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen time. Participants were children (6.9 ± 1.8 years) with a body mass index in the 70-95th percentile and their parents (421 dyads). Parent-completed questionnaires assessed parental support for child physical activity (PA), parenting styles and child screen time. Children wore accelerometers to assess MVPA. Parenting style did not predict MVPA, but support for PA did (positive association). The association between support and MVPA, moreover, varied as a function of permissive parenting. For parents high in permissiveness, the association was positive (greater support was related to greater MVPA and therefore protective). For parents low in permissiveness, the association was neutral; support did not matter. Authoritarian and permissive parenting styles were both associated with greater screen time. Parenting practices and styles should be considered jointly, offering implications for tailored interventions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Predicting Child Physical Activity and Screen Time: Parental Support for Physical Activity and General Parenting Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, A. Lauren; Senso, Meghan M.; Levy, Rona L.; Sherwood, Nancy E.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine relationships between parenting styles and practices and child moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen time. Methods: Participants were children (6.9 ± 1.8 years) with a body mass index in the 70–95th percentile and their parents (421 dyads). Parent-completed questionnaires assessed parental support for child physical activity (PA), parenting styles and child screen time. Children wore accelerometers to assess MVPA. Results: Parenting style did not predict MVPA, but support for PA did (positive association). The association between support and MVPA, moreover, varied as a function of permissive parenting. For parents high in permissiveness, the association was positive (greater support was related to greater MVPA and therefore protective). For parents low in permissiveness, the association was neutral; support did not matter. Authoritarian and permissive parenting styles were both associated with greater screen time. Conclusions: Parenting practices and styles should be considered jointly, offering implications for tailored interventions. PMID:24812256

  2. Predicting and preventing the future: actively managing multiple sclerosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hutchinson, Michael

    2012-02-01

    Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) has a highly variable clinical course but a number of demographic, clinical and MRI features can guide the clinician in the assessment of disease activity and likely disability outcome. It is also clear that the inflammatory activity in the first five years of relapsing-remitting MS results in the neurodegenerative changes seen in secondary progressive MS 10-15 years later. While conventional first-line disease modifying therapy has an effect on relapses, about one third of patients have a suboptimal response to treatment. With the advent of highly active second-line therapies with their evident marked suppression of inflammation, the clinician now has the tools to manage the course of relapsing-remitting MS more effectively. The development of treatment optimisation recommendations based on the clinical response to first-line therapies can guide the neurologist in more active management of the early course of relapsing-remitting MS, with the aim of preventing both acute inflammatory axonal injury and the neurodegenerative process which leads to secondary progressive MS.

  3. Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Sousa Pereira Simoes de Melo, Manuel; Ferre, Rafael; Feliu, Lidia; Bardaji, Eduard; Planas, Marta; Castanho, Miguel A. R. B.

    2011-01-01

    Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible co

  4. Influence of accelerometer type and placement on physical activity energy expenditure prediction in manual wheelchair users.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Edward Nightingale

    Full Text Available To assess the validity of two accelerometer devices, at two different anatomical locations, for the prediction of physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE in manual wheelchair users (MWUs.Seventeen MWUs (36 ± 10 yrs, 72 ± 11 kg completed ten activities; resting, folding clothes, propulsion on a 1% gradient (3,4,5,6 and 7 km·hr-1 and propulsion at 4km·hr-1 (with an additional 8% body mass, 2% and 3% gradient on a motorised wheelchair treadmill. GT3X+ and GENEActiv accelerometers were worn on the right wrist (W and upper arm (UA. Linear regression analysis was conducted between outputs from each accelerometer and criterion PAEE, measured using indirect calorimetry. Subsequent error statistics were calculated for the derived regression equations for all four device/location combinations, using a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis.Accelerometer outputs at each anatomical location were significantly (p < .01 associated with PAEE (GT3X+-UA; r = 0.68 and GT3X+-W; r = 0.82. GENEActiv-UA; r = 0.87 and GENEActiv-W; r = 0.88. Mean ± SD PAEE estimation errors for all activities combined were 15 ± 45%, 14 ± 50%, 3 ± 25% and 4 ± 26% for GT3X+-UA, GT3X+-W, GENEActiv-UA and GENEActiv-W, respectively. Absolute PAEE estimation errors for devices varied, 19 to 66% for GT3X+-UA, 17 to 122% for GT3X+-W, 15 to 26% for GENEActiv-UA and from 17.0 to 32% for the GENEActiv-W.The results indicate that the GENEActiv device worn on either the upper arm or wrist provides the most valid prediction of PAEE in MWUs. Variation in error statistics between the two devices is a result of inherent differences in internal components, on-board filtering processes and outputs of each device.

  5. Identification of the predicted 5s-4f level crossing optical lines with applications to metrology and searches for the variation of fundamental constants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windberger, A; Crespo López-Urrutia, J R; Bekker, H; Oreshkina, N S; Berengut, J C; Bock, V; Borschevsky, A; Dzuba, V A; Eliav, E; Harman, Z; Kaldor, U; Kaul, S; Safronova, U I; Flambaum, V V; Keitel, C H; Schmidt, P O; Ullrich, J; Versolato, O O

    2015-04-17

    We measure optical spectra of Nd-like W, Re, Os, Ir, and Pt ions of particular interest for studies of a possibly varying fine-structure constant. Exploiting characteristic energy scalings we identify the strongest lines, confirm the predicted 5s-4f level crossing, and benchmark advanced calculations. We infer two possible values for optical M2/E3 and E1 transitions in Ir^{17+} that have the highest predicted sensitivity to a variation of the fine-structure constant among stable atomic systems. Furthermore, we determine the energies of proposed frequency standards in Hf^{12+} and W^{14+}.

  6. Molecular physicochemical parameters predicting antioxidant activity of Brazilian natural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Scotti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Reactive oxygen species (ROS are capable of oxidizing cellular proteins, nucleic acids and lipids, contributing to cellular aging, mutagenesis, carcinogenesis, coronary heart and neurodegenerative diseases. Free radicals-scavenging by phenolic compounds occurs by the transfer of one electron followed by the H-abstraction. In order to evaluate the antioxidant activity of a series of seventeen phenolic compounds extracted from Brazilian flora (Chimarrhis turbinata and Arrabidea samydoides, some physicochemical parameters (heat formation of the neutral, radical, and cationic compounds; orbitals' energies; ClogP; ΔH OX; and ΔHf were calculated. Considering the results from the calculated descriptors, the molecules 10a-f can be classified as having a higher antioxidant activity.

  7. Initial Implementation of an Active Prediction Capability in Bellhop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    version du Bellhop spécifiquement conçue pour offrir une capacité active. Le modèle est présentement configuré pour accepter des capteurs multiples et...capability should be examined to determine if it will be of use to the present applications of BellhopDRDC. 2.2 Enable towed array beam patterns...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION (Overall security classification of the document including special warning terms if applicable .) 3. TITLE

  8. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-04-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located in the northwest of China. This is an important watershed of the Shaanxi province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million people. The results showed that the maximum value of the moisture index (E0/P) was 1.91 and appeared in 1991-2000, and the decreased speed of streamflow was higher since 1990 compared with 1960-1990. The average annual streamflow from 1990 to 2010 was reduced by 26.96 % compared with the multiyear average value (from 1960 to 2010). The estimates of the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decreases from the hydrological models were similar to those from the elasticity-based method. The maximum contribution value of human activities was 99 % when averaged over the three methods, and appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal. Climate variability made the greatest contribution to streamflow reduction in 1991-2000, the values of which was 40.4 %. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occur in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  9. Variation in metabolic enzyme activity of persistent Haemophilus influenzae in respiratory tracts of patients with cystic fibrosis.

    OpenAIRE

    Möller, L V; Grasselier, H; Dankert, J.; van Alphen, L

    1996-01-01

    Haemophilus influenzae organisms were isolated from sputum specimens prospectively collected from 40 patients with cystic fibrosis during 2 years to study variations in the metabolic enzyme activities of persistent H. influenzae strains as determined by biotyping. In total, 97 distinct H. influenzae strains without variations in their major outer membrane protein (MOMP) patterns and 73 MOMP variants derived from 30 of these distinct strains were obtained. Twelve distinct strains and 42 MOMP v...

  10. Differences in Muscle Activity During Cable Resistance Training Are Influenced by Variations in Handle Types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rendos, Nicole K; Heredia Vargas, Héctor M; Alipio, Taislaine C; Regis, Rebeca C; Romero, Matthew A; Signorile, Joseph F

    2016-07-01

    Rendos, NK, Heredia Vargas, HM, Alipio, TC, Regis, RC, Romero, MA, and Signorile, JF. Differences in muscle activity during cable resistance training are influenced by variations in handle types. J Strength Cond Res 30(7): 2001-2009, 2016-There has been a recent resurgence in the use of cable machines for resistance training allowing movements that more effectively simulate daily activities and sports-specific movements. By necessity, these devices require a machine/human interface through some type of handle. Considerable data from material handling, industrial engineering, and exercise training studies indicate that handle qualities, especially size and shape, can significantly influence force production and muscular activity, particularly of the forearm muscles, which affect the critical link in activities that require object manipulation. The purpose for this study was to examine the influence of three different handle conditions: standard handle (StandH), ball handle with the cable between the index and middle fingers (BallIM), and ball handle with the cable between the middle and ring fingers (BallMR), on activity levels (rmsEMG) of the triceps brachii lateral and long heads (TriHLat, TriHLong), brachioradialis (BR), flexor carpi radialis (FCR), extensor carpi ulnaris, and extensor digitorum (ED) during eight repetitions of standing triceps pushdown performed from 90° to 0° elbow flexion at 1.5 s per contractile stage. Handle order was randomized. No significant differences were seen for triceps or BR rmsEMG across handle conditions; however, relative patterns of activation did vary for the forearm muscles by handle condition, with more coordinated activation levels for the FCR and ED during the ball handle conditions. In addition, the rmsEMG for the ED was significantly higher during the BallIM than any other condition and during the BallMR than the StandH. These results indicate that the use of ball handles with the cable passing between different fingers

  11. Putamen Activation Represents an Intrinsic Positive Prediction Error Signal for Visual Search in Repeated Configurations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search.

  12. Putamen Activation Represents an Intrinsic Positive Prediction Error Signal for Visual Search in Repeated Configurations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Susanne; Pollmann, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We investigated fMRI responses to visual search targets appearing at locations that were predicted by the search context. Based on previous work in visual category learning we expected an intrinsic reward prediction error signal in the putamen whenever the target appeared at a location that was predicted with some degree of uncertainty. Comparing target appearance at locations predicted with 50% probability to either locations predicted with 100% probability or unpredicted locations, increased activation was observed in left posterior putamen and adjacent left posterior insula. Thus, our hypothesis of an intrinsic prediction error-like signal was confirmed. This extends the observation of intrinsic prediction error-like signals, driven by intrinsic rather than extrinsic reward, to memory-driven visual search. PMID:27867436

  13. Pre- and post-exploitation variations in hydrothermal activity in Los Humeros geothermal field, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prol-Ledesma, R. M.

    1998-08-01

    Los Humeros geothermal field is a remarkable example of the lack of water-rock equilibrium. Significant variations of hydrothermal activity have occurred before and after exploitation started. Presently, discharged water is not in equilibrium with the alteration suite observed in the reservoir rocks. Hydrothermal minerals identified in core and cuttings define the occurrence of several stages of hydrothermal activity. Cooling at depth is inferred from fluid inclusion and alteration mineralogy data from the wells located nearby Los Humeros fault. Most wells produce a two-phase fluid with excess enthalpy, this accounts for the high CO 2 content observed in the discharged fluid. Sulfur and carbon isotopic data indicate that volatile species in the geothermal fluid have magmatic as well as sedimentary components, while strontium isotopic composition shows that calcium is provided by the andesitic rocks that form the reservoir. As exploitation of the field started, concentration of HCl increased in the discharged fluids. This shows that recharge of the reservoir is not enough to balance the output for production, and drying out of the field may be taking place at depth. The lack of chemical equilibrium and the presence of gases of magmatic origin suggest that Los Humeros is a relatively young geothermal field related to a recent magmatic intrusion.

  14. Variations in essential oil, phenolic compounds, and antioxidant activity of tunisian cultivated Salvia officinalis L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Farhat, Mouna; Jordán, María J; Chaouech-Hamada, Rym; Landoulsi, Ahmed; Sotomayor, Jose A

    2009-11-11

    The variation in the chemical composition of the essential oil of Salvia officinalis , growing in different habitats, was studied. GC-MS analysis revealed 57 compounds representing 94.68-96.80% of total oils. The major components were alpha-thujone (11.55-19.23%), viridiflorol (9.94-19.46%), 1,8-cineole (8.85-15.60%), camphor (5.08-15.06%), manool (5.52-13.06%), beta-caryophyllene (2.63-9.24%), alpha-humulene (1.93-8.94%), and beta-thujone (5.45-6.17%), showing significant differences between different collection sites. Analysis of some representative polyphenolic compounds and antioxidant activity was performed using postdistilled dry samples. Rosmarinic acid, carnosol, and carnosic acid were the prevalent compounds of S. officinalis methanolic extracts. The results revealed differences in the polyphenolic composition and also exhibited antioxidant and radical-scavenging activities at different magnitudes of potency. However, within the used methods, only the DPPH(*) assay showed significant differences (p officinalis might be valuable antioxidant natural sources and seemed to be applicable in both the health medicine and food industries.

  15. Seasonal variation of Brazilian red propolis: Antibacterial activity, synergistic effect and phytochemical screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regueira, M S; Tintino, Saulo Relison; da Silva, Ana Raquel Pereira; Costa, Maria do Socorro; Boligon, Aline Augusti; Matias, Edinardo F F; de Queiroz Balbino, Valdir; Menezes, Irwin R A; Melo Coutinho, Henrique Douglas

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the dry and rainy season on the antibacterial activity and chemical composition of the Brazilian red propolis. The samples were collected in rainy (RP-PER) and dry (RP-PED) seasons and analyzed by HPLC-DAD. The extracts were tested alone and in association with antibiotics against Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus. The HPLC analysis identified luteolin and quercetin as the main compounds. Seasonal variation was observed according to concentrations of the compounds. The MIC values against E. coli ranged from 128 μg/mL to 512 μg/mL (EC 06 and EC ATCC). The red propolis showed MIC values of 512 μg/mL against both strains of P. aeruginosa used in our study (PA03 and PA24) and against strains of Gram-positive bacteria S. aureus the MICs ranged from 64 μg/mL to ≥1024 μg/mL (SA10). A synergistic effect was observed when we combined the RP-PED with gentamicin against all the strains tested. When we combined the RP-PED with Imipenem, we only observed synergistic effect against P. aeruginosa. According to our synergistic activity results, the utilization of red propolis collected in the drier periods can be used as an adjuvant against multiresistant bacterial infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Chemical composition, antioxidant and antimicrobial activities of basil (Ocimum basilicum) essential oils depends on seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Abdullah Ijaz; Anwar, Farooq; Hussain Sherazi, Syed Tufail; Przybylski, Roman

    2008-06-01

    Chemical composition, antioxidant and antimicrobial activities of the essential oils from aerial parts of basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) as affected by four seasonal, namely summer, autumn, winter and spring growing variation were investigated. The hydro-distilled essential oils content ranged from 0.5% to 0.8%, the maximum amounts were observed in winter while minimum in summer. The essential oils consisted of linalool as the most abundant component (56.7-60.6%), followed by epi-α-cadinol (8.6-11.4%), α-bergamotene (7.4-9.2%) and γ-cadinene (3.2-5.4%). Samples collected in winter were found to be richer in oxygenated monoterpenes (68.9%), while those of summer were higher in sesquiterpene hydrocarbons (24.3%). The contents of most of the chemical constituents varied significantly (pMucor mucedo, Fusarium solani, Botryodiplodia theobromae, Rhizopus solani was assessed by disc diffusion method and measurement of determination of minimum inhibitory concentration. The results of antimicrobial assays indicated that all the tested microorganisms were affected. Both the antioxidant and antimicrobial activities of the oils varied significantly (p<0.05), as seasons changed.

  17. Active fault creep variations at Chihshang, Taiwan, revealed by creep meter monitoring, 1998-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jian-Cheng; Angelier, Jacques; Chu, Hao-Tsu; Hu, Jyr-Ching; Jeng, Fu-Shu; Rau, Ruey-Juin

    2003-11-01

    The daily creep meter data recorded at Chihshang in 1998-2001 are presented. The Chihshang creep meter experiment was set up across the Chihshang thrust fault, the most active segment of the Longitudinal Valley Fault, which is the present-day plate suture between the Eurasian and the Philippine Sea plates in eastern Taiwan. Near-continuous data recording at two sites revealed different surface fault motions yet similar annual shortening rates: 16.2 mm at the Tapo site (comprising two connected creep meters) and 15.0 mm at the Chinyuan site (three creep meters straddling parallel fault branches). Four of the five creep meters showed a seasonal variation, with the fault moving steadily during the rainy season from April to October, and remaining quiescent during the rest of the year. The only exception was recorded by the creep meter located on a mélange-composed hillslope, where local gravitational landsliding played an additional role other than tectonic faulting. Through comparison with daily precipitation data, we inferred that moderate rainfall suffices to trigger or facilitate slippage on the surface fault, during the transition period of the dry/wet season. During the observation period from 1998 to 2001, the subsurface seismicity exhibited clusters of microearthquakes on the Chihshang Fault at depths of 10-25 km. Recurrent earthquakes occurred regardless of whether the season was wet or dry, indicating that the stress relaxation associated with seismicity in the seismogenic zone did not transfer immediately up to the surface. The accumulated strain on the Chihshang Fault at shallow surface levels was released through creep during the wet season. In addition to these short-term seasonal variations, an apparent decrease in the annual slipping rate on the Chihshang Fault during the last few years deserves further investigation in order to mitigate against seismic hazard.

  18. Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken t

  19. Using Social Cognitive Theory to Predict Physical Activity and Fitness in Underserved Middle School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jeffrey J.; McCaughtry, Nate; Flory, Sara; Murphy, Anne; Wisdom, Kimberlydawn

    2011-01-01

    Few researchers have used social cognitive theory and environment-based constructs to predict physical activity (PA) and fitness in underserved middle-school children. Hence, we evaluated social cognitive variables and perceptions of the school environment to predict PA and fitness in middle school children (N = 506, ages 10-14 years). Using…

  20. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  1. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  2. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soer, Remko; Geertzen, Jan H. B.; van der Schans, Cees P.; Groothoff, Johan W.; Reneman, Michiel F.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity

  3. Influence of Varying Training Set Composition and Size on Support Vector Machine-Based Prediction of Active Compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Pérez, Raquel; Vogt, Martin; Bajorath, Jürgen

    2017-04-24

    Support vector machine (SVM) modeling is one of the most popular machine learning approaches in chemoinformatics and drug design. The influence of training set composition and size on predictions currently is an underinvestigated issue in SVM modeling. In this study, we have derived SVM classification and ranking models for a variety of compound activity classes under systematic variation of the number of positive and negative training examples. With increasing numbers of negative training compounds, SVM classification calculations became increasingly accurate and stable. However, this was only the case if a required threshold of positive training examples was also reached. In addition, consideration of class weights and optimization of cost factors substantially aided in balancing the calculations for increasing numbers of negative training examples. Taken together, the results of our analysis have practical implications for SVM learning and the prediction of active compounds. For all compound classes under study, top recall performance and independence of compound recall of training set composition was achieved when 250-500 active and 500-1000 randomly selected inactive training instances were used. However, as long as ∼50 known active compounds were available for training, increasing numbers of 500-1000 randomly selected negative training examples significantly improved model performance and gave very similar results for different training sets.

  4. Building predictive gene signatures through simultaneous assessment of transcription factor activation and gene expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building predictive gene signatures through simultaneous assessment of transcription factor activation and gene expression Exposure to many drugs and environmentally-relevant chemicals can cause adverse outcomes. These adverse outcomes, such as cancer, have been linked to mol...

  5. Fragmentation and stability of circadian activity rhythms predict mortality : the rotterdam study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuurbier, Lisette A; Luik, Annemarie I; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; Van Someren, Eus J W; Tiemeier, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Circadian rhythms and sleep patterns change as people age. Little is known about the associations between circadian rhythms and mortality rates. We investigated whether 24-hour activity rhythms and sleep characteristics independently predicted mortality. Actigraphy was used to determine the

  6. CORAL: classification model for predictions of anti-sarcoma activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, A A; Toropova, A P; Benfenati, E; Gini, G; Leszczynska, D; Leszczynski, J

    2012-01-01

    A modified version of the CORAL software (http://www.insilico.eu/coral) allows building up the classification model for the case of the Yes/No data on the anti-sarcoma activity of organic compounds. Three random splits into the sub-training, calibration, and test sets of the data for 3017 compounds were examined. The performance of the proposed approach is satisfactory. The average values of the statistical characteristics for external test set on three random splits are as follows: n=1173-1234, sensitivity = 0.8903±0.0390, specificity = 0.9869±0.0013, and accuracy = 0.9759±0.0043. Mechanistic interpretation of the suggested model is discussed.

  7. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited. Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions. Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied. The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was dependent on the composition of the solutes present. For more atmospherically representative higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus

  8. Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xianghu; ZHANG Qi

    2015-01-01

    The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China.Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation.The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test,and also investigated the related affecting factors,both from climate and human activities.The results revealed that the highest flood stages,duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49,1.60 and 1.50,respectively.And,a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades.The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990s.In addition,the intensive human activities,including land reclamation and levee construction,also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods.While,the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods,but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.

  9. Can Muscle Soreness After Intensive Work-related Activities Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Soer, Remko; Jan H B Geertzen; van der Schans, Cees P; Johan W. Groothoff; Reneman, Michiel F

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: It is currently unknown whether specific determinants are predictive for developing delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) after heavy work-related activities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether personal characteristics and performance measures are predictive for onset, intensity, and duration of DOMS after performing work-related activities during a Functional Capacity Evaluation in healthy participants. Methods: Included in this study were 197 healthy participants (102 m...

  10. Prediction of insecticidal activity of Bacillus thuringiensis strains by polymerase chain reaction product profiles.

    OpenAIRE

    Carozzi, N B; Kramer, V C; Warren, G W; Evola, S; Koziel, M G

    1991-01-01

    A rapid analysis of Bacillus thuringiensis strains predictive of insecticidal activity was established by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. Primers specific to regions of high homology within genes encoding three major classes of B. thuringiensis crystal proteins were used to generate a PCR product profile characteristic of each insecticidal class. Predictions of insecticidal activity were made on the basis of the electrophoretic patterns of the PCR products. Included in the s...

  11. Cultural variations in the sexual marketplace: gender equality correlates with more sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumeister, Roy F; Mendoza, Juan Pablo

    2011-01-01

    Sexual economics theory assumes that heterosexual communities can be analyzed as marketplaces in which men offer women resources such as love, respect, money, and commitment in exchange for sex. In response to economic, political, and other disadvantages, women collectively restrict their sexuality to maintain a low supply relative to male demand, thereby ensuring a high price. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that sexual norms and practices would be more restrictive in countries marked by gender inequality than in countries where the genders were more equal. An international online sex survey (N>317,000) yielded four measures of sexual activity, and 37 nations' means on all four measures were correlated with independent (World Economic Forum) ratings of gender equality. Consistent with predictions, relatively high gender equality was associated with more casual sex, more sex partners per capita, younger ages for first sex, and greater tolerance/approval of premarital sex.

  12. Microbial growth fluctuating in response to solar-terrestrial activity variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voychuk, S I; Gromozova, E N

    2012-01-01

    Populations of microorganisms display fluctuations in the variable physiological and biochemical properties during cultivation under constant laboratory conditions. A series of explanations were proposed for this phenomenon, and different factors were studied as possible regulators. It was found that such fluctuations possess cosmic rhythms, but no factor(s) were proposed that could sufficiently explain and predict the magnitude of changes that happened on a daily basis in the long-term experiments. In this study we investigated specific growth rate fluctuations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts that were marked daily during cultivation under constant conditions. The effects of different solar and terrestrial factors were then analysed. The significant correlation indices were found for growth rate fluctuations against solar wind speed and the number of flares M on the Sun. These two factors determined the cyclic nature of the growth rate fluctuations, and thus its general course of increase or decrease. The effects of several other factors (Flares C number, planetary A index variation, and changes in the atmospheric factors such as temperature and humidity) and their two-way interactions were significant in producing an equation to describe the magnitude of changes of the yeast's growth parameters. The R2 of the equation achieved 91% and adjusted R2 was 78%. It is obvious that temperature and humidity are the factors that cannot directly influence the yeast populations under laboratory conditions and thus we suppose that they only reflect modifications of the really important factor(s) that take place in the Earth's atmosphere. We have concluded that different solar and terrestrial factors are responsible for the fluctuations in the daily kinetic parameters of the yeast growth.

  13. Cognitive ability correlates positively with son birth and predicts cross-cultural variation of the offspring sex ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dama, Madhukar Shivajirao

    2013-06-01

    Human populations show remarkable variation in the sex ratio at birth which is believed to be related to the parental condition. In the present study, the global variation of sex ratio at birth (SRB, proportion of male offspring born) was analyzed with respect to indirect measure of condition, the intelligence quotient (IQ). IQ correlates strongly with lifespan across nations, which makes it a good indicator of health of the large populations. Relation between three standard measures of average national IQ and SRB was studied using multiple linear regression models. Average national IQ was positively correlated with SRB (r = 0.54 to 0.57, p wealth, son preference, latitude, low birth weight, and neonatal mortality in the regression models. These results suggest that the striking variation of offspring sex ratio across nations could be caused in part by the difference in general condition of populations.

  14. Cognitive ability correlates positively with son birth and predicts cross-cultural variation of the offspring sex ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dama, Madhukar Shivajirao

    2013-06-01

    Human populations show remarkable variation in the sex ratio at birth which is believed to be related to the parental condition. In the present study, the global variation of sex ratio at birth (SRB, proportion of male offspring born) was analyzed with respect to indirect measure of condition, the intelligence quotient (IQ). IQ correlates strongly with lifespan across nations, which makes it a good indicator of health of the large populations. Relation between three standard measures of average national IQ and SRB was studied using multiple linear regression models. Average national IQ was positively correlated with SRB ( r = 0.54 to 0.57, p low birth weight, and neonatal mortality in the regression models. These results suggest that the striking variation of offspring sex ratio across nations could be caused in part by the difference in general condition of populations.

  15. Behaviour in a standardized assay, but not metabolic or growth rate, predicts behavioural variation in an adult aquatic top predator Esox lucius in the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskowski, K L; Monk, C T; Polverino, G; Alós, J; Nakayama, S; Staaks, G; Mehner, T; Arlinghaus, R

    2016-04-01

    This study tested for links among behaviour, state and life-history variables as predicted by the pace-of-life hypothesis in adult pike Esox lucius. First, a standardized open-field behavioural assay was developed to assess individual behaviour of wild-captured adult E. lucius. Behaviour within the standardized assay predicted swimming behaviour in the lake, providing an ecological validation of the assay. There was no relationship between standardized behaviour and any of the life-history and state variables, including metabolism, body condition, juvenile growth rate and adult growth rate in contrast to predictions from the pace-of-life hypothesis. This study demonstrates that it is possible to assess ecologically relevant behavioural variation in a large-bodied top predator using a standard open-field assay, but it is noteworthy that this standardized behaviour is not systematically related to standard metabolism or growth.

  16. Short communication: Variations in major mineral contents of Mediterranean buffalo milk and application of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy for their prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocco, G; Cipolat-Gotet, C; Bonfatti, V; Schiavon, S; Bittante, G; Cecchinato, A

    2016-11-01

    The aims of this study were (1) to assess variability in the major mineral components of buffalo milk, (2) to estimate the effect of certain environmental sources of variation on the major minerals during lactation, and (3) to investigate the possibility of using Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy as an indirect, noninvasive tool for routine prediction of the mineral content of buffalo milk. A total of 173 buffaloes reared in 5 herds were sampled once during the morning milking. Milk samples were analyzed for Ca, P, K, and Mg contents within 3h of sample collection using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. A Milkoscan FT2 (Foss, Hillerød, Denmark) was used to acquire milk spectra over the spectral range from 5,000 to 900 wavenumber/cm. Prediction models were built using a partial least square approach, and cross-validation was used to assess the prediction accuracy of FTIR. Prediction models were validated using a 4-fold random cross-validation, thus dividing the calibration-test set in 4 folds, using one of them to check the results (prediction models) and the remaining 3 to develop the calibration models. Buffalo milk minerals averaged 162, 117, 86, and 14.4mg/dL of milk for Ca, P, K, and Mg, respectively. Herd and days in milk were the most important sources of variation in the traits investigated. Parity slightly affected only Ca content. Coefficients of determination of cross-validation between the FTIR-predicted and the measured values were 0.71, 0.70, and 0.72 for Ca, Mg, and P, respectively, whereas prediction accuracy was lower for K (0.55). Our findings reveal FTIR to be an unsuitable tool when milk mineral content needs to be predicted with high accuracy. Predictions may play a role as indicator traits in selective breeding (if the additive genetic correlation between FTIR predictions and measures of milk minerals is high enough) or in monitoring the milk of buffalo populations for dairy industry purposes.

  17. Prediction Signatures in the Brain: Semantic Pre-Activation during Language Comprehension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maess, Burkhard; Mamashli, Fahimeh; Obleser, Jonas; Helle, Liisa; Friederici, Angela D.

    2016-01-01

    There is broad agreement that context-based predictions facilitate lexical-semantic processing. A robust index of semantic prediction during language comprehension is an evoked response, known as the N400, whose amplitude is modulated as a function of semantic context. However, the underlying neural mechanisms that utilize relations of the prior context and the embedded word within it are largely unknown. We measured magnetoencephalography (MEG) data while participants were listening to simple German sentences in which the verbs were either highly predictive for the occurrence of a particular noun (i.e., provided context) or not. The identical set of nouns was presented in both conditions. Hence, differences for the evoked responses of the nouns can only be due to differences in the earlier context. We observed a reduction of the N400 response for highly predicted nouns. Interestingly, the opposite pattern was observed for the preceding verbs: highly predictive (that is more informative) verbs yielded stronger neural magnitude compared to less predictive verbs. A negative correlation between the N400 effect of the verb and that of the noun was found in a distributed brain network, indicating an integral relation between the predictive power of the verb and the processing of the subsequent noun. This network consisted of left hemispheric superior and middle temporal areas and a subcortical area; the parahippocampus. Enhanced activity for highly predictive relative to less predictive verbs, likely reflects establishing semantic features associated with the expected nouns, that is a pre-activation of the expected nouns. PMID:27895573

  18. Predicting involvement in prison gang activity: street gang membership, social and psychological factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Jane L; Alleyne, Emma; Mozova, Katarina; James, Mark

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether street gang membership, psychological factors, and social factors such as preprison experiences could predict young offenders' involvement in prison gang activity. Data were collected via individual interviews with 188 young offenders held in a Young Offenders Institution in the United Kingdom. Results showed that psychological factors such as the value individuals attached to social status, a social dominance orientation, and antiauthority attitudes were important in predicting young offenders' involvement in prison gang activity. Further important predictors included preimprisonment events such as levels of threat, levels of individual delinquency, and levels of involvement in group crime. Longer current sentences also predicted involvement in prison gang activity. However, street gang membership was not an important predictor of involvement in prison gang activity. These findings have implications for identifying prisoners involved in prison gang activity and for considering the role of psychological factors and group processes in gang research.

  19. Comparative study to predict dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitory activity of β-amino amide scaffold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Patil

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparative study was performed on 34 β-amino amide derivatives as dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitors in order to determine their structural requirement to enhance the antidiabetic activities. Hologram quantitative structure activity relationships models utilized specialized fragment fingerprints (hologram length 353 which showed good predictivity with cross-validated q 2 and conventional r 2 values of 0.971 and 0.971, respectively. Models were validated and optimized by a test set of eight compounds and gave satisfactory predictive ability. Hologram quantitative structure activity relationships maps were helpful in prediction of the structural features of the ligands to account for the activity in terms of positively and negatively contributing towards activity. The information obtained from maps could be effectively use as a guiding tool for further structure modifications and synthesis of new potent antidiabetic agents.

  20. Long-time temperature variations in Portugal over the last 140 years and the effect of the solar activity

    CERN Document Server

    Morozova, A L; Pais, M A

    2010-01-01

    We present the analysis of temperature variations in Portugal for 140 years (from 1865 to 2005). The two stations with the longest time series of temperature measurements (Lisbon and Coimbra) have been used to study the dependence of the portuguese climate variations on the changes of both global circulation and solar activity. Monthly averaged temperature series have been analyzed together with monthly North-Atlantic Oscillation index data, sunspot numbers and cosmic ray flux intensity. Different statistical methods (the correlation analysis and the multiple regression analysis) were used. Our results show that the temperature in Portugal depends not only on the atmospheric variations in the studied region but also on the variations of the solar parameters such as sunspot numbers and the cosmic rays flux intensity. Also, the dependence of temperature on solar parameters is strong during the cold season (November to February), while much weaker during the warm season. For some months, strong correlations betw...

  1. Prediction of pelvic inflammatory disease among young, single, sexually active women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ness, Roberta B; Smith, Kenneth J; Chang, Chung-Chou H; Schisterman, Enrique F; Bass, Debra C

    2006-03-01

    To assess prediction strategies for pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). One thousand one hundred seventy women were enrolled based on a high chlamydial risk score. Incident PID over a median of 3 years was diagnosed by either histologic endometritis or Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. A multivariable prediction model for PID was assessed. Women enrolled using the risk score were young, single, sexually active, and often had prior sexually transmitted infections. Incident PID was common (8.6%). From 24 potential predictors, significant factors included age at first sex, gonococcal/chlamydial cervicitis, history of PID, family income, smoking, medroxyprogesterone acetate use, and sex with menses. The model correctly predicted 74% of incident PID; in validation models, correct prediction was only 69%. Our data validate a modified chlamydial risk factor scoring system for prediction of PID. Additional multivariable modeling contributed little to prediction. Women identified by a threshold value on the chlamydial risk score should undergo intensive education and screening.

  2. New Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Models Improve Predictability of Ames Mutagenicity for Aromatic Azo Compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manganelli, Serena; Benfenati, Emilio; Manganaro, Alberto; Kulkarni, Sunil; Barton-Maclaren, Tara S; Honma, Masamitsu

    2016-10-01

    Existing Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have limited predictive capabilities for aromatic azo compounds. In this study, 2 new models were built to predict Ames mutagenicity of this class of compounds. The first one made use of descriptors based on simplified molecular input-line entry system (SMILES), calculated with the CORAL software. The second model was based on the k-nearest neighbors algorithm. The statistical quality of the predictions from single models was satisfactory. The performance further improved when the predictions from these models were combined. The prediction results from other QSAR models for mutagenicity were also evaluated. Most of the existing models were found to be good at finding toxic compounds but resulted in many false positive predictions. The 2 new models specific for this class of compounds avoid this problem thanks to a larger set of related compounds as training set and improved algorithms.

  3. Active noise control using noise source having adaptive resonant frequency tuning through stiffness variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla, Frederic G. (Inventor); Rajiyah, Harindra (Inventor); Renshaw, Anthony A. (Inventor); Hedeen, Robert A. (Inventor)

    1995-01-01

    A noise source for an aircraft engine active noise cancellation system in which the resonant frequency of a noise radiating element is tuned to permit noise cancellation over a wide range of frequencies. The resonant frequency of the noise radiating element is tuned by a plurality of force transmitting mechanisms which contact the noise radiating element. Each one of the force transmitting mechanisms includes an expandable element and a spring in contact with the noise radiating element so that excitation of the element varies the spring force applied to the noise radiating element. The elements are actuated by a controller which receives input of a signal proportional to displacement of the noise radiating element and a signal corresponding to the blade passage frequency of the engine's fan. In response, the controller determines a control signal which is sent to the elements and causes the spring force applied to the noise radiating element to be varied. The force transmitting mechanisms can be arranged to either produce bending or linear stiffness variations in the noise radiating element.

  4. Nitrate reductase activity and its diurnal variation rhythm for Camptotheca acuminata seedlings

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUNShi-qin; YANXiu-feng

    2004-01-01

    Nitrate reductase activity (NRA) in different plant organs and leaves in different positions of Camptotheca acuminata seedlings was determined by an In vivo assay, the diurnal variation rhythm of NRA in leaves of different positions was observed,and the correlations between leaf NRA, leaf area and lamina mass per unit area (LMA) were also examined. The results showed that NRA in the leaf was significantly highest, compared with that in other organs such as roots, stems and leaves. In this experiment, the 10 leaves were selected from the apex to the base of the seedlings in order. The different NRA occurred obviously in leaves of different positions of C. acuminata seedlings from the apex to the base, and NRA was higher in the 4th-6th leaves.The diurnal change rhythm of leaf NRA showed a one peak curve, and maximum NRA value appeared at about midday (at 12:30 or so). No obvious correlations between NRA and leaf area or lamina mass per unit area were observed. This study offered scientific foundation for the further research on nitrogen metabolism of C. acuminata.

  5. Regional brain activity and strenuous exercise: predicting affective responses using EEG asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Eric E; Ekkekakis, Panteleimon; Petruzzello, Steven J

    2007-05-01

    Previous research using the model proposed by Davidson has shown that resting frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) asymmetry can predict affective responses to aerobic exercise at moderate intensities. Specifically, greater relative left frontal activity has been shown to predict positive affect (i.e., energy) following exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine if resting frontal EEG asymmetry would predict affective responses following strenuous exercise. Thirty participants (13 women, 17 men) completed a maximal graded exercise test on a treadmill. EEG was recorded prior to exercise. Affect was measured by the Activation Deactivation Adjective Check List prior to the graded exercise test, immediately following, 10 and 20-min following exercise. Greater relative left frontal activity predicted tiredness and calmness during recovery from exercise, but not tension or energy. Tiredness and calmness following exercise covaried, suggesting that tiredness following exercise might not have been linked with displeasure. These findings offer further support for the link between EEG asymmetry and affective responses to exercise.

  6. The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

    2010-01-01

    Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

  7. A Unified Framework for Activity Recognition-Based Behavior Analysis and Action Prediction in Smart Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungyoung Lee

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step towards allowing an environment to provide personalized service. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction. For this purpose, first we propose kernel fusion method for accurate activity recognition and then identify the significant sequential behaviors of inhabitants from recognized activities of their daily routines. Moreover, behaviors patterns are further utilized to predict the future actions from past activities. To evaluate the proposed framework, we performed experiments on two real datasets. The results show a remarkable improvement of 13.82% in the accuracy on average of recognized activities along with the extraction of significant behavioral patterns and precise activity predictions with 6.76% increase in F-measure. All this collectively help in understanding the users” actions to gain knowledge about their habits and preferences.

  8. A thorough analysis of the short- and mid-term activity-related variations in the solar acoustic frequencies

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, A R G; Avelino, P P; Chaplin, W J; Campante, T L

    2016-01-01

    The frequencies of the solar acoustic oscillations vary over the activity cycle. The variations in other activity proxies are found to be well correlated with the variations in the acoustic frequencies. However, each proxy has a slightly different time behaviour. Our goal is to characterize the differences between the time behaviour of the frequency shifts and of two other activity proxies, namely, the area covered by sunspots and the 10.7cm flux. We define a new observable that is particularly sensitive to the short-term frequency variations. We then compare the observable when computed from model frequency shifts and from observed frequency shifts obtained with the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) for cycle 23. Our analysis shows that on the shortest time-scales the variations in the frequency shifts seen in the GONG observations are strongly correlated with the variations in the area covered by sunspots. However, a significant loss of correlation is still found. We verify that the times when the fre...

  9. Prediction of physical activity intention and behavior in a longitudinal sample of adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raudsepp, Lennart; Viira, Roomet; Hannus, Aave

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate a theory of planned behavior model for the prediction of physical activity in adolescent girls using a 1-yr. longitudinal design. A secondary purpose was to examine the moderating influence of intention stability and past behavior on intention-behavior relationships. Participants were 236 12- to 13-year-old adolescent girls who completed measures of the theory of planned behavior and physical activity participation (3-Day Physical Activity Recall) across a 1-yr. interval. The standard theoretical variables predicted intentions, as intention, past behavior, and perceived behavioral control predicted behavior. The temporal stability of intentions and past behavior moderated relationships between intention and behavior. An autoregressive path model showed that intention and perceived behavioral control predicted changes in physical activity and physical activity predicted changes in intention, affective attitude, and perceived behavioral control. This study supports the use of the theory of planned behavior in gaining an understanding of the physical activity intention and behavior of adolescent girls.

  10. Prediction of in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor activity using hierarchical clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, hierarchical clustering classification models were developed to predict in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor (ER) activity. Classification models were developed for binding, agonist, and antagonist in vitro ER activity and for mouse in vivo uterotrophic ER bindi...

  11. Can Gymnastic Teacher Predict Leisure Activity Preference among Children with Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCD)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel-Yeger, Batya; Hanna-Kassis, Amany; Rosenblum, Sara

    2012-01-01

    The aims of the study were to analyze: (1) whether significant differences exist between children with typical development and children with developmental coordination disorders (DCD) in their preference to participate in leisure activities (2) whether the teacher estimation of activity form (TEAF) evaluation predicts participation preference.…

  12. Prediction of in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor activity using hierarchical clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, hierarchical clustering classification models were developed to predict in vitro and in vivo oestrogen receptor (ER) activity. Classification models were developed for binding, agonist, and antagonist in vitro ER activity and for mouse in vivo uterotrophic ER bindi...

  13. Predicting Antitumor Activity of Peptides by Consensus of Regression Models Trained on a Small Data Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanka Jerić

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Predicting antitumor activity of compounds using regression models trained on a small number of compounds with measured biological activity is an ill-posed inverse problem. Yet, it occurs very often within the academic community. To counteract, up to some extent, overfitting problems caused by a small training data, we propose to use consensus of six regression models for prediction of biological activity of virtual library of compounds. The QSAR descriptors of 22 compounds related to the opioid growth factor (OGF, Tyr-Gly-Gly-Phe-Met with known antitumor activity were used to train regression models: the feed-forward artificial neural network, the k-nearest neighbor, sparseness constrained linear regression, the linear and nonlinear (with polynomial and Gaussian kernel support vector machine. Regression models were applied on a virtual library of 429 compounds that resulted in six lists with candidate compounds ranked by predicted antitumor activity. The highly ranked candidate compounds were synthesized, characterized and tested for an antiproliferative activity. Some of prepared peptides showed more pronounced activity compared with the native OGF; however, they were less active than highly ranked compounds selected previously by the radial basis function support vector machine (RBF SVM regression model. The ill-posedness of the related inverse problem causes unstable behavior of trained regression models on test data. These results point to high complexity of prediction based on the regression models trained on a small data sample.

  14. Cortical delta activity reflects reward prediction error and related behavioral adjustments, but at different times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, James F

    2015-04-15

    Recent work has suggested that reward prediction errors elicit a positive voltage deflection in the scalp-recorded electroencephalogram (EEG); an event sometimes termed a reward positivity. However, a strong test of this proposed relationship remains to be defined. Other important questions remain unaddressed: such as the role of the reward positivity in predicting future behavioral adjustments that maximize reward. To answer these questions, a three-armed bandit task was used to investigate the role of positive prediction errors during trial-by-trial exploration and task-set based exploitation. The feedback-locked reward positivity was characterized by delta band activities, and these related EEG features scaled with the degree of a computationally derived positive prediction error. However, these phenomena were also dissociated: the computational model predicted exploitative action selection and related response time speeding whereas the feedback-locked EEG features did not. Compellingly, delta band dynamics time-locked to the subsequent bandit (the P3) successfully predicted these behaviors. These bandit-locked findings included an enhanced parietal to motor cortex delta phase lag that correlated with the degree of response time speeding, suggesting a mechanistic role for delta band activities in motivating action selection. This dissociation in feedback vs. bandit locked EEG signals is interpreted as a differentiation in hierarchically distinct types of prediction error, yielding novel predictions about these dissociable delta band phenomena during reinforcement learning and decision making.

  15. Prediction of activity type in preschool children using machine learning techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenbuchner, Markus; Cliff, Dylan P; Trost, Stewart G; Van Tuc, Nguyen; Peoples, Gregory E

    2015-07-01

    Recent research has shown that machine learning techniques can accurately predict activity classes from accelerometer data in adolescents and adults. The purpose of this study is to develop and test machine learning models for predicting activity type in preschool-aged children. Participants completed 12 standardised activity trials (TV, reading, tablet game, quiet play, art, treasure hunt, cleaning up, active game, obstacle course, bicycle riding) over two laboratory visits. Eleven children aged 3-6 years (mean age=4.8±0.87; 55% girls) completed the activity trials while wearing an ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer on the right hip. Activities were categorised into five activity classes: sedentary activities, light activities, moderate to vigorous activities, walking, and running. A standard feed-forward Artificial Neural Network and a Deep Learning Ensemble Network were trained on features in the accelerometer data used in previous investigations (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles and the lag-one autocorrelation). Overall recognition accuracy for the standard feed forward Artificial Neural Network was 69.7%. Recognition accuracy for sedentary activities, light activities and games, moderate-to-vigorous activities, walking, and running was 82%, 79%, 64%, 36% and 46%, respectively. In comparison, overall recognition accuracy for the Deep Learning Ensemble Network was 82.6%. For sedentary activities, light activities and games, moderate-to-vigorous activities, walking, and running recognition accuracy was 84%, 91%, 79%, 73% and 73%, respectively. Ensemble machine learning approaches such as Deep Learning Ensemble Network can accurately predict activity type from accelerometer data in preschool children. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of Interindividual Human Variation in Bioactivation and DNA Adduct Formation of Estragole in Liver Predicted by Physiologically Based Kinetic/Dynamic and Monte Carlo Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punt, Ans; Paini, Alicia; Spenkelink, Albertus; Scholz, Gabriele; Schilter, Benoit; van Bladeren, Peter J; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-04-18

    Estragole is a known hepatocarcinogen in rodents at high doses following metabolic conversion to the DNA-reactive metabolite 1'-sulfooxyestragole. The aim of the present study was to model possible levels of DNA adduct formation in (individual) humans upon exposure to estragole. This was done by extending a previously defined PBK model for estragole in humans to include (i) new data on interindividual variation in the kinetics for the major PBK model parameters influencing the formation of 1'-sulfooxyestragole, (ii) an equation describing the relationship between 1'-sulfooxyestragole and DNA adduct formation, (iii) Monte Carlo modeling to simulate interindividual human variation in DNA adduct formation in the population, and (iv) a comparison of the predictions made to human data on DNA adduct formation for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol. Adequate model predictions could be made, with the predicted DNA adduct levels at the estimated daily intake of estragole of 0.01 mg/kg bw ranging between 1.6 and 8.8 adducts in 10(8) nucleotides (nts) (50th and 99th percentiles, respectively). This is somewhat lower than values reported in the literature for the related alkenylbenzene methyleugenol in surgical human liver samples. The predicted levels seem to be below DNA adduct levels that are linked with tumor formation by alkenylbenzenes in rodents, which were estimated to amount to 188-500 adducts per 10(8) nts at the BMD10 values of estragole and methyleugenol. Although this does not seem to point to a significant health concern for human dietary exposure, drawing firm conclusions may have to await further validation of the model's predictions.

  17. Task-free MRI predicts individual differences in brain activity during task performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavor, I; Parker Jones, O; Mars, R B; Smith, S M; Behrens, T E; Jbabdi, S

    2016-04-01

    When asked to perform the same task, different individuals exhibit markedly different patterns of brain activity. This variability is often attributed to volatile factors, such as task strategy or compliance. We propose that individual differences in brain responses are, to a large degree, inherent to the brain and can be predicted from task-independent measurements collected at rest. Using a large set of task conditions, spanning several behavioral domains, we train a simple model that relates task-independent measurements to task activity and evaluate the model by predicting task activation maps for unseen subjects using magnetic resonance imaging. Our model can accurately predict individual differences in brain activity and highlights a coupling between brain connectivity and function that can be captured at the level of individual subjects.

  18. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  19. Genetic variation and activity of the renin-angiotensin system and severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen-Bjergaard, U.; Dhamrait, S.S.; Sethi, A.A.;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The deletion-allele of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene and elevated ACE activity are associated with increased risk of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes. We explored whether genetic and phenotypic variations in other components of the renin-angiotensin system...

  20. The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D.; Johansen, Peter

    2014-01-01

    , we investigate the role of gender as a factor that contributes to eye colour variation and suggest that the gender effect on eye colour is population specific. A total of 230 Italian individuals were typed for the six IrisPlex SNPs (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs12896399, rs1393350, rs16891982 and rs......In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this study...... eye colour independently of ancestry. Furthermore, we found gender to be significantly associated with quantitative eye colour measurements in the Italian population sample. We found that the association was statistically significant only among Italian individuals typed as heterozygote GA for HERC2 rs...

  1. The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D.; Johansen, Peter;

    2014-01-01

    , we investigate the role of gender as a factor that contributes to eye colour variation and suggest that the gender effect on eye colour is population specific. A total of 230 Italian individuals were typed for the six IrisPlex SNPs (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs12896399, rs1393350, rs16891982 and rs......In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this study...... eye colour independently of ancestry. Furthermore, we found gender to be significantly associated with quantitative eye colour measurements in the Italian population sample. We found that the association was statistically significant only among Italian individuals typed as heterozygote GA for HERC2 rs...

  2. On the variation of the ionospheric potential due to large-scale radioactivity enhancement and solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slyunyaev, Nikolay N.; Mareev, Evgeny A.; Zhidkov, Artem A.

    2015-08-01

    Sensitivity of the global electric circuit (GEC) to variations of atmospheric conductivity and current sources is analyzed and discussed. When the undisturbed exponential conductivity profile is assumed all over the Earth, the most substantial changes in the ionospheric potential (IP) are caused by conductivity perturbations inside thunderstorms; if, in addition, conductivity reduction inside thunderstorms and nonelectrified clouds is assumed, the IP becomes less sensitive to conductivity perturbations; besides, the IP is even more sensitive to source current variations than to conductivity. Current source and voltage source descriptions of GEC generators are compared; it is shown that the IP variation may critically depend on the chosen description. As an application, the IP variation due to nuclear weapons testing is studied; it is shown that neither local nor global increase of conductivity in the stratosphere could alone explain the observed 40% IP increase in the 1960s; at the same time this increase might be accounted for by a 40% increase in the source current density or a 46% reduction of the conductivity inside thunderstorms, provided that it was not reduced initially. The IP variation due to solar activity and, in particular, due to solar modulation of galactic cosmic ray flux is also discussed and modeled, which required an adequate parameterization of the rate of atmospheric ion pair production over the solar cycle. It is estimated that the maximum IP variation on the scale of the solar cycle does not exceed 5% of the mean value, unless source current perturbations are taken into account.

  3. Seasonal and magnetic activity variations of ionospheric electric fields above the southern mid-latitude station, Bundoora, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Parkinson

    Full Text Available We investigate the seasonal, local solar time, and geomagnetic activity variations of the average Doppler velocity measured by an HF digital ionosonde deployed at Bundoora, Australia (145.1° E, 37.7° S, geographic; 49° S magnetic. The Doppler velocities were heavily averaged to suppress the short-term effects (<3 hours of atmospheric gravity waves, and thereby obtain the diurnal variations attributed to the tidally-driven ionospheric dynamo and electric fields generated by magnetic disturbances. The observed seasonal variations in Doppler velocity were probably controlled by variations in the lower thermospheric winds and ionospheric conductivity above Bundoora and in the magnetically conjugate location. The diurnal variations of the meridional (field-perpendicular drifts and their perturbations exhibited a complex structure, and were generally smaller than the variations in the zonal drifts. The latter were basically strongly west-ward during the evening to early morning, and weakly east-ward during the late morning to just past noon. The zonal perturbations were strongly enhanced by increasing geomagnetic activity, and closely resembled the perturbation drifts measured by the incoherent scatter radar (ISR at Millstone Hill (71.5° W, 42.6° N; 57° N. There was also some resemblance between the diurnal variations in the meridional drifts. Overall, the comparisons suggest that with sufficient averaging, Doppler velocities measured with digital ionosondes at mid-latitudes correspond to true ion motions driven by ionospheric electric fields. This is a useful result because apart from the ISRs located in the American-European sector, there are no ground-based instruments capable of measuring electric fields in the mid-latitude ionosphere.

    Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents; ionosphere atmosphere interactions; mid-latitude ionosphere

  4. Application of Artificial Intelligence to the Prediction of the Antimicrobial Activity of Essential Oils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daynac, Mathieu; Cortes-Cabrera, Alvaro; Prieto, Jose M

    2015-01-01

    Essential oils (EOs) are vastly used as natural antibiotics in Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM). Their intrinsic chemical variability and synergisms/antagonisms between its components make difficult to ensure consistent effects through different batches. Our aim is to evaluate the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of their antimicrobial activity. Methods. The chemical composition and antimicrobial activity of 49 EOs, extracts, and/or fractions was extracted from NCCLS compliant works. The fast artificial neural networks (FANN) software was used and the output data reflected the antimicrobial activity of these EOs against four common pathogens: Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Candida albicans, and Clostridium perfringens as measured by standardised disk diffusion assays. Results. ANNs were able to predict >70% of the antimicrobial activities within a 10 mm maximum error range. Similarly, ANNs were able to predict 2 or 3 different bioactivities at the same time. The accuracy of the prediction was only limited by the inherent errors of the popular antimicrobial disk susceptibility test and the nature of the pathogens. Conclusions. ANNs can be reliable, fast, and cheap tools for the prediction of the antimicrobial activity of EOs thus improving their use in CAM.

  5. Mapping ECoG channel contributions to trajectory and muscle activity prediction in human sensorimotor cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Yasuhiko; Yanagisawa, Takufumi; Shin, Duk; Kambara, Hiroyuki; Yoshimura, Natsue; Tanaka, Masataka; Fukuma, Ryohei; Kishima, Haruhiko; Hirata, Masayuki; Koike, Yasuharu

    2017-01-01

    Studies on brain-machine interface techniques have shown that electrocorticography (ECoG) is an effective modality for predicting limb trajectories and muscle activity in humans. Motor control studies have also identified distributions of “extrinsic-like” and “intrinsic-like” neurons in the premotor (PM) and primary motor (M1) cortices. Here, we investigated whether trajectories and muscle activity predicted from ECoG were obtained based on signals derived from extrinsic-like or intrinsic-like neurons. Three participants carried objects of three different masses along the same counterclockwise path on a table. Trajectories of the object and upper arm muscle activity were predicted using a sparse linear regression. Weight matrices for the predictors were then compared to determine if the ECoG channels contributed more information about trajectory or muscle activity. We found that channels over both PM and M1 contributed highly to trajectory prediction, while a channel over M1 was the highest contributor for muscle activity prediction. PMID:28361947

  6. Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mestyán, Márton; Kertész, János

    2012-01-01

    Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies becomes a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. One of the natural application of this would be prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains as a big challenge. Here, we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie could be predicted well in advance by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  7. Early prediction of movie box office success based on Wikipedia activity big data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márton Mestyán

    Full Text Available Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.

  8. Predicting survival of Salmonella in low-water activity foods: an analysis of literature data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Schaffner, Donald W; Frank, Joseph F

    2014-09-01

    Factors such as temperature, water activity (aw), substrate, culture media, serotype, and strain influence the survival of Salmonella in low-aw foods. Predictive models for Salmonella survival in low-aw foods at temperatures ranging from 21 to 80(u) C and water activities below 0.6 were previously developed. Literature data on survival of Salmonella in low-aw foods were analyzed in the present study to validate these predictive models and to determine global influencing factors. The results showed the Weibull model provided suitable fits to the data in 75% of the curves as compared with the log-linear model. The secondary models predicting the time required for log-decimal reduction (log δ) and shape factor (log β) values were useful in predicting the survival of Salmonella in low-aw foods. Statistical analysis indicated overall fail-safe secondary models, with 88% of the residuals in the acceptable and safe zones (foods and its influencing factors.

  9. Phobic anxiety in 11 nations : part II. Hofstede's dimensions of national cultures predict national-level variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arrindell, WA; Eisemann, M; Oei, TPS; Caballo, VE; Sanavio, E; Sica, C; Bages, N; Feldman, L; Torres, B; Iwawaki, S; Hatzichristou, C; Castro, J; Canalda, G; Furnham, A; van der Ende, J

    Hofstede's dimensions of national cultures termed Masculinity-Femininity (MAS) and Uncertainty Avoidance (UAI) (Hofstede, 2001) are proposed to be of relevance for understanding national-level differences in self-assessed fears. The potential predictive role of national MAS was based on the

  10. Variation in Environmentalism among University Students: Majoring in Outdoor Recreation, Parks, and Tourism Predicts Environmental Concerns and Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnocky, Steven; Stroink, Mirella L.

    2011-01-01

    In a survey of Canadian university students (N = 205), the relationship between majoring in an outdoor recreation university program and environmental concern, cooperation, and behavior were examined. Stepwise linear regression indicated that enrollment in outdoor recreation was predictive of environmental behavior and ecological cooperation; and…

  11. Phobic anxiety in 11 nations : part II. Hofstede's dimensions of national cultures predict national-level variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arrindell, WA; Eisemann, M; Oei, TPS; Caballo, VE; Sanavio, E; Sica, C; Bages, N; Feldman, L; Torres, B; Iwawaki, S; Hatzichristou, C; Castro, J; Canalda, G; Furnham, A; van der Ende, J

    2004-01-01

    Hofstede's dimensions of national cultures termed Masculinity-Femininity (MAS) and Uncertainty Avoidance (UAI) (Hofstede, 2001) are proposed to be of relevance for understanding national-level differences in self-assessed fears. The potential predictive role of national MAS was based on the classica

  12. Variation in Environmentalism among University Students: Majoring in Outdoor Recreation, Parks, and Tourism Predicts Environmental Concerns and Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnocky, Steven; Stroink, Mirella L.

    2011-01-01

    In a survey of Canadian university students (N = 205), the relationship between majoring in an outdoor recreation university program and environmental concern, cooperation, and behavior were examined. Stepwise linear regression indicated that enrollment in outdoor recreation was predictive of environmental behavior and ecological cooperation; and…

  13. Interactome-wide prediction of protein-protein binding sites reveals effects of protein sequence variation in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Leal Valentim

    Full Text Available The specificity of protein-protein interactions is encoded in those parts of the sequence that compose the binding interface. Therefore, understanding how changes in protein sequence influence interaction specificity, and possibly the phenotype, requires knowing the location of binding sites in those sequences. However, large-scale detection of protein interfaces remains a challenge. Here, we present a sequence- and interactome-based approach to mine interaction motifs from the recently published Arabidopsis thaliana interactome. The resultant proteome-wide predictions are available via www.ab.wur.nl/sliderbio and set the stage for further investigations of protein-protein binding sites. To assess our method, we first show that, by using a priori information calculated from protein sequences, such as evolutionary conservation and residue surface accessibility, we improve the performance of interface prediction compared to using only interactome data. Next, we present evidence for the functional importance of the predicted sites, which are under stronger selective pressure than the rest of protein sequence. We also observe a tendency for compensatory mutations in the binding sites of interacting proteins. Subsequently, we interrogated the interactome data to formulate testable hypotheses for the molecular mechanisms underlying effects of protein sequence mutations. Examples include proteins relevant for various developmental processes. Finally, we observed, by analysing pairs of paralogs, a correlation between functional divergence and sequence divergence in interaction sites. This analysis suggests that large-scale prediction of binding sites can cast light on evolutionary processes that shape protein-protein interaction networks.

  14. Prediction of spatio-temporal patterns of neural activity from pairwise correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Marre, Olivier; Boustani, Sami El; Fregnac, Yves; Destexhe, Alain

    2009-01-01

    We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and temporal pairwise correlations among neurons. This model is tested on data generated with a Glauber spin-glass system and is shown to correctly predict the occurrence probabilities of spatio-temporal patterns significantly better than Ising models taking into acco...

  15. Predicting the activation states of the muscles governing upper esophageal sphincter relaxation and opening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omari, Taher I; Jones, Corinne A; Hammer, Michael J; Cock, Charles; Dinning, Philip; Wiklendt, Lukasz; Costa, Marcello; McCulloch, Timothy M

    2016-03-15

    The swallowing muscles that influence upper esophageal sphincter (UES) opening are centrally controlled and modulated by sensory information. Activation and deactivation of neural inputs to these muscles, including the intrinsic cricopharyngeus (CP) and extrinsic submental (SM) muscles, results in their mechanical activation or deactivation, which changes the diameter of the lumen, alters the intraluminal pressure, and ultimately reduces or promotes flow of content. By measuring the changes in diameter, using intraluminal impedance, and the concurrent changes in intraluminal pressure, it is possible to determine when the muscles are passively or actively relaxing or contracting. From these "mechanical states" of the muscle, the neural inputs driving the specific motor behaviors of the UES can be inferred. In this study we compared predictions of UES mechanical states directly with the activity measured by electromyography (EMG). In eight subjects, pharyngeal pressure and impedance were recorded in parallel with CP- and SM-EMG activity. UES pressure and impedance swallow profiles correlated with the CP-EMG and SM-EMG recordings, respectively. Eight UES muscle states were determined by using the gradient of pressure and impedance with respect to time. Guided by the level and gradient change of EMG activity, mechanical states successfully predicted the activity of the CP muscle and SM muscle independently. Mechanical state predictions revealed patterns consistent with the known neural inputs activating the different muscles during swallowing. Derivation of "activation state" maps may allow better physiological and pathophysiological interpretations of UES function.

  16. Harvester Ant Colony Variation in Foraging Activity and Response to Humidity

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon, Deborah M.; Dektar, Katherine N.; Noa Pinter-Wollman

    2013-01-01

    Collective behavior is produced by interactions among individuals. Differences among groups in individual response to interactions can lead to ecologically important variation among groups in collective behavior. Here we examine variation among colonies in the foraging behavior of the harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus. Previous work shows how colonies regulate foraging in response to food availability and desiccation costs: the rate at which outgoing foragers leave the nest depends on the ...

  17. Can the monitoring of animal welfare parameters predict pork meat quality variation through the supply chain (from farm to slaughter)?

    Science.gov (Uni