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Sample records for zealand time trends

  1. Residential aged care in Auckland, New Zealand 1988-2008: do real trends over time match predictions?

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    Broad, Joanna B; Boyd, Michal; Kerse, Ngaire; Whitehead, Noeline; Chelimo, Carol; Lay-Yee, Roy; von Randow, Martin; Foster, Susan; Connolly, Martin J

    2011-07-01

    in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 7.7% of those aged over 65 years lived in licenced residential aged care. Age-specific rates approximately doubled for each 5-year age group after the age of 65 years. Even with changes in policies and market forces since 1988, population increases are forecast to drive large growth in demand. This study shows previously unrecognised 20-year trends in rates of care in a geographically defined population. four cross-sectional surveys of all facilities (rest homes and hospitals) licenced for long-term care of older people were conducted in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2008. Facility staff completed survey forms for each resident. Numbers of licenced and occupied beds and trends in age-specific and age-standardised rates in residential aged care are reported. over the 20-year period, Auckland's population aged over 65 years increased by 43% (from 91,000 to 130,000) but actual numbers in care reduced slightly. Among those aged over 65 years, the proportion living in care facilities reduced from 1 in 13 to 1 in 18. Age-standardised rates in rest-home level care reduced from 65 to 33 per thousand, and in hospital level care, from 29 to 23 per thousand. Had rates remained stable, over 13,200 people, 74% more than observed, would have been in care in 2008. growth predicted in the residential aged care sector is not yet evident. The introduction of standardised needs assessments before entry, increased availability of home-based services, and growth in retirement villages may have led to reduced utilisation.

  2. Poles Apart: Comparing Trends of Alien Hymenoptera in New Zealand with Europe (DAISIE.

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    Darren Ward

    Full Text Available Developing generalisations of invasive species is an important part of invasion biology. However, trends and generalisations from one part of the world may not necessarily hold elsewhere. We present the first inventory and analysis of all Hymenoptera alien to New Zealand, and compare patterns from New Zealand with those previously published from Europe (DAISIE. Between the two regions there was broad correlation between families with the highest number of alien species (Braconidae, Encyrtidae, Pteromalidae, Eulophidae, Formicidae, Aphelinidae. However, major differences also existed. The number of species alien to New Zealand is higher than for Europe (334 vs 286, and major differences include: i the much lower proportion of intentionally released species in New Zealand (21% vs 63% in Europe; and ii the greater proportion of unintentionally introduced parasitoids in New Zealand (71.2% vs 22.6%. The disharmonic 'island' nature of New Zealand is shown, as a high proportion of families (36% have no native representatives, and alien species also represent >10% of the native fauna for many other families. A much larger proportion of alien species are found in urban areas in New Zealand (60% compared to Europe (~30%, and higher numbers of alien species were present earlier in New Zealand (especially <1950. Differences in the origins of alien species were also apparent. Unlike Europe, the New Zealand data reveals a change in the origins of alien species over time, with an increasing dominance of alien species from Australasia (a regional neighbour during the past 25 years. We recommend that further effort be made towards the formation, and analysis, of regional inventories of alien species. This will allow a wider range of taxa and regions to be examined for generalisations, and help assess and prioritise the risk posed by certain taxa towards the economy or environment.

  3. SPI Trend Analysis of New Zealand Applying the ITA Technique

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    Tommaso Caloiero

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A natural temporary imbalance of water availability, consisting of persistent lower-than-average or higher-than-average precipitation, can cause extreme dry and wet conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure, and human systems. In this study, dry and wet periods in New Zealand were expressed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. First, both the short term (3 and 6 months and the long term (12 and 24 months SPI were estimated, and then, possible trends in the SPI values were detected by means of a new graphical technique, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA, which allows the trend identification of the low, medium, and high values of a series. Results show that, in every area currently subject to drought, an increase in this phenomenon can be expected. Specifically, the results of this paper highlight that agricultural regions on the eastern side of the South Island, as well as the north-eastern regions of the North Island, are the most consistently vulnerable areas. In fact, in these regions, the trend analysis mainly showed a general reduction in all the values of the SPI: that is, a tendency toward heavier droughts and weaker wet periods.

  4. Information Technology in New Zealand: Review of Emerging Social Trends, Current Issues, and Policies

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    Erturk, Emre; Fail, Derwyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the general state of information technology in New Zealand society, current issues, and policies. It is a qualitative study that reviews recent scholarly articles, periodicals, and surveys in order to create an understanding of some of the information technology issues and trends in New Zealand. After reviewing previous research, it assesses the potential existence and nature of a 'digital divide' in New Zealand society whilst also evaluating possible strategic responses ...

  5. Sperm quality in New Zealand: Is the downward trend continuing?

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    Birdsall, Mary A; Peek, John; Valiapan, Sumithra

    2015-10-16

    To investigate whether the decline in sperm concentration in New Zealand sperm donors observed from 1987 to 2007 continued in the period 2008-2014. A retrospective study from 2008 to 2014. The first semen sample of 285 men presenting as sperm donors in Auckland and Wellington was analysed for sperm concentration, seminal fluid volume and the percentage of motile sperm. These results were compared to results from 1987 to 2007 from the same clinics. The decline in semen volume and sperm concentration observed between 1987 and 2007 did not continue in 2008-2014. Sperm concentration decreased from 1987 until some time between 1997 and 2001, and has remained stable at an average of 62x106/ml between 2001 and 2014. Sperm motility declined significantly (8%) in the period 2008-2014, but there was no significant change over the total period studied, between 1987 and 2014. After a decline between 1987 and sometime during 1997-2001, the sperm concentration in men presenting as donors remained unchanged between 2002 and 2014, suggesting semen quality has not changed in New Zealand men over the last decade.

  6. Suicide Research and Adolescent Suicide Trends in New Zealand

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    Said Shahtahmasebi

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there have been a number of claims and counterclaims from suicide research using time series and longitudinal data; in particular, the linkage of increased antidepressant prescriptions to a decrease in suicide rates. Suicide time series appear to have a memory compounded with seasonal and cyclic effects. Failure to take into account these properties may lead to misleading conclusions, e.g., a downward blip is interpreted as the result of current knowledge and public health policies, while an upward blip is explained as suicide being complex depending on many variables requiring further research. In previous publications, I argued that this misuse of time series data is the result of an uncritical acceptance of a medical model that links mental ill-health to suicide. The consequences of such research behaviour are further increases in antidepressant prescriptions and medications to those who should not be prescribed them, with adverse effects showing across the population, e.g., the prescription of antidepressants to very young children (some under 1 year of age in New Zealand. Moreover, the New Zealand Evidence-based Health Care Bulletin recommends an authoritarian approach for every interaction with a young person to check their psychosocial well-being. When viewed holistically, this kind of human behaviour makes researchers, policy makers (politicians, treatment, and practitioners, and society in general part of the problem rather than the solution. This paper explores some dynamic aspects of suicide, using only official data with particular reference to youth suicide, and suggests that the medical model of suicide is only an attempt to treat depression without addressing suicide, and recommends the creation of a unified database through understanding the society that individuals live in. It is hoped that this paper will stimulate debate and the collaboration of international experts regardless of their school of thought.

  7. Ethnic and socioeconomic trends in breast cancer incidence in New Zealand

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    Atkinson June

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer incidence varies between social groups, but differences have not been thoroughly examined in New Zealand. The objectives of this study are to determine whether trends in breast cancer incidence varied by ethnicity and socioeconomic position between 1981 and 2004 in New Zealand, and to assess possible risk factor explanations. Methods Five cohorts of the entire New Zealand population for 1981-86, 1986-1991, 1991-1996, 1996-2001, and 2001-2004 were created, and probabilistically linked to cancer registry records, allowing direct determination of ethnic and socioeconomic trends in breast cancer incidence. Results Breast cancer rates increased across all ethnic and socioeconomic groups between 1981 and 2004. Māori women consistently had the highest age standardised rates, and the difference between Māori and European/Other women increased from 7% in 1981-6 to 24% in 2001-4. Pacific and Asian women had consistently lower rates of breast cancer than European/Other women over the time period studied (12% and 28% lower respectively when pooled over time, although young Pacific women had slightly higher incidence rates than young European/other women. A gradient between high and low income women was evident, with high income women having breast cancer rates approximately 10% higher and this difference did not change significantly over time. Conclusions Differences in breast cancer incidence between European and Pacific women and between socioeconomic groups are explicable in terms of known risk factors. However no straightforward explanation for the relatively high incidence amongst Māori is apparent. Further research to explore high Māori breast cancer rates may contribute to reducing the burden of breast cancer amongst Māori women, as well as improving our understanding of the aetiology of breast cancer.

  8. Comparison of oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell cancer incidence and trends in New Zealand and Queensland, Australia.

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    Elwood, J Mark; Youlden, Danny R; Chelimo, Carol; Ioannides, Sally J; Baade, Peter D

    2014-02-01

    Increases in the incidence of squamous cell oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) have been reported from some countries, but have not been assessed in Australia or New Zealand. This study examines trends for squamous cell OPC and squamous cell oral cavity cancer (OCC) in two similarly sized populations, New Zealand and Queensland, Australia. Incidence data for 1982-2010 were obtained from the respective population-based cancer registries for squamous cell OPC and OCC, by subsite, sex, and age. Time trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were assessed by joinpoint regression. The incidence rates of squamous cell OPC in males in New Zealand since 2005 and Queensland since 2006 have increased rapidly, with APCs of 11.9% and 10.6% respectively. The trends were greatest at ages 50-69 and followed more gradual increases previously. In females, rates increased by 2.1% per year in New Zealand from 1982, but by only 0.9% (not significant) in Queensland. In contrast, incidence rates for OCC decreased by 1.2% per year in males in Queensland since 1982, but remained stable for females in Queensland and for both sexes in New Zealand. Overall, incidence rates for both OCC and OPC were substantially higher in Queensland than in New Zealand. In males in both areas, OPC incidence is now higher than that of OCC. Incidence rates of squamous cell OPC have increased rapidly in men, while rates of OCC have been stable or reducing, showing distinct etiologies. This has both clinical and public health importance, including implications for the extension of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination to males. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. My New Zealand lesbian studies through time and times.

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    Laurie, Alison J

    2012-01-01

    In this article Alison J. Laurie reflects on her political activism and how it informs her academic scholarship and research interests relating to lesbian studies in New Zealand. She concludes that her desire for social change and commitment to lesbian community development inspired her early activism and has continued to inform her activism as well as her academic research and writing. She discusses her involvement in lesbian and gay organizations and campaigns, in New Zealand, Scandinavia, the United States and the United Kingdom, and the ideas that have informed and influenced her work. She pioneered the first lesbian studies courses in New Zealand, initially through community education, and from 1990 for university credit, and considers the contribution these courses can make. Finally, she reflects on several of her articles, book chapters and books considering how her work has developed during the past 50 years.

  10. Incidence of stroke in women in Auckland, New Zealand. Ethnic trends over two decades: 1981-2003.

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    Dyall, Lorna; Carter, Kristie; Bonita, Ruth; Anderson, Craig; Feigin, Valery; Kerse, Ngaire; Brown, Paul

    2006-11-17

    .73-0.96), increasing trends in event rates in Pacific women were observed (2.71 95% CI 1.00-7.29). The rate of stroke for Maori women did not change significantly over time. Over half of the women who had a stroke event reported that they had high blood pressure; one in four reported that they had diabetes. The proportion of women who smoked declined over time but increases in body mass index (BMI) indicated weight gains in women over time. These trends were consistent across ethnic groups. Women's survival after 1 month following their stroke has improved by 39% (pNew Zealand European women in particular) in Auckland over the past 20 years but there also was a trend towards increasing stroke incidence in Maori, Pacific, and Asian women. These divergent trends are likely to be associated with different trends in the prevalence of risk factors in these ethnic populations. Targeted stroke prevention programmes are needed in New Zealand to meet the needs of specific ethnic groups as well as the needs of providing ongoing care and support to women following their stroke.

  11. Epidemiology of inpatient gout in Australia and New Zealand: temporal trends, comorbidities and gout flare site.

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    Robinson, Philip C; Kempe, Sarina; Tebbutt, Ian; Roberts, Lynden

    2017-06-01

    To assess the epidemiology of inpatient gout in Australia and New Zealand during the years 2009-2014. Using the Health Roundtable Limited (HRT) dataset, all patients with a coded ICD10 primary or secondary discharge diagnosis of gout from a HRT participating Australian or New Zealand hospital between the years 2009 and 2014 were identified. The number of inpatient gout admissions, length of stay, body site of gout flare, temporal trends and comorbidities were assessed. During 2009-2014, the number of gout admissions increased significantly in Australia and New Zealand. The rate of inpatient gout admissions relative to the population and total HRT admissions rose in Australia and stayed static in New Zealand. Lower limb presentations were the commonest anatomical site of gout in admitted patients. Length of stay over the course of the study decreased both in patients admitted for gout and in those in the entire HRT dataset. Patients admitted for gout have longer length of stay compared to patients admitted for other reasons. Cardiovascular disease, infection and stroke were the commonest conditions that were complicated by an episode of inpatient gout. There was no influence of month or season on the pattern of gout admissions. The number of gout admissions rose in Australia numerically and as a proportion of the total population and total admissions. Gout is an increasing problem affecting individuals and the community as a whole in Australia. © 2016 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  12. Incidence, trends and demographics of Staphylococcus aureus infections in Auckland, New Zealand, 2001–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background New Zealand has a higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus disease than other developed countries, with significant sociodemographic variation in incidence rates. In contrast to North America, the majority of disease is due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), although relatively little is known about the comparative demographics of MSSA and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections in New Zealand. Methods Our objectives were to describe the trends, incidence and patient demographics of all S. aureus infections in patients presenting to our institution between 2001 and 2011, and compare the epidemiology of MSSA and MRSA infections. We identified all patients with S. aureus infections over the study period. A unique S. aureus infection was defined as the first positive S. aureus culture taken from the same patient within a thirty-day period. Standard definitions were used to classify episodes into community- or healthcare-associated S. aureus infection. Results There were 16,249 S. aureus infections over the study period. The incidence increased significantly over the study period from 360 to 412 per 100,000 population (P New Zealand. The significant increase in community-associated S. aureus infections is of public health importance. Future studies should investigate the reasons underlying this concerning trend. PMID:24299298

  13. Incidence, trends and demographics of Staphylococcus aureus infections in Auckland, New Zealand, 2001-2011.

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    Williamson, Deborah A; Lim, Alwin; Thomas, Mark G; Baker, Michael G; Roberts, Sally A; Fraser, John D; Ritchie, Stephen R

    2013-12-03

    New Zealand has a higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus disease than other developed countries, with significant sociodemographic variation in incidence rates. In contrast to North America, the majority of disease is due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), although relatively little is known about the comparative demographics of MSSA and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections in New Zealand. Our objectives were to describe the trends, incidence and patient demographics of all S. aureus infections in patients presenting to our institution between 2001 and 2011, and compare the epidemiology of MSSA and MRSA infections. We identified all patients with S. aureus infections over the study period. A unique S. aureus infection was defined as the first positive S. aureus culture taken from the same patient within a thirty-day period. Standard definitions were used to classify episodes into community- or healthcare-associated S. aureus infection. There were 16,249 S. aureus infections over the study period. The incidence increased significantly over the study period from 360 to 412 per 100,000 population (P New Zealand. The significant increase in community-associated S. aureus infections is of public health importance. Future studies should investigate the reasons underlying this concerning trend.

  14. Time-capsule: Explorations of Concepts of Time and Law in Colonial New Zealand

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    Jonathan Barrett

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Postcolonial legal culture in New Zealand (Aotearoa has sought to revise the past by reinterpreting Victorian legal contexts in the light of contemporary understandings of inter-cultural differences. This article develops an argument that demonstrates the relationship between cultural and legal notions of time during nineteenth century New Zealand. It examines the way in which Victorian attitudes were expressed in the expansion of colonial empire and the discursive ideologies which may have informed them. It explores the notion of time as expressed in lawmaking in colonial New Zealand through an examination of legal and philosophical commentary derived from contemporary jurisprudence and para-legal literature. The article is concerned with presenting an argument for the way in which colonial law and lawmakers manipulated the symbolic notion of time to the possible occlusion of indigenous interests in colonial New Zealand.

  15. Time-capsule: Explorations of Concepts of Time and Law in Colonial New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Barrett, Jonathan; Strongman, Luke

    2009-01-01

    Postcolonial legal culture in New Zealand (Aotearoa) has sought to revise the past by reinterpreting Victorian legal contexts in the light of contemporary understandings of inter-cultural differences. This article develops an argument that demonstrates the relationship between cultural and legal notions of time during nineteenth century New Zealand. It examines the way in which Victorian attitudes were expressed in the expansion of colonial empire and the discursive ideologies which may have ...

  16. The New Zealand National Eye Bank study: trends in the acquisition and storage of corneal tissue over the decade 2000 to 2009.

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    Cunningham, William J; Moffatt, S Louise; Brookes, Nigel H; Twohill, Helen C; Pendergrast, David G C; Stewart, Joanna M; McGhee, Charles N J

    2012-05-01

    To evaluate trends in the acquisition, storage, and utilization of donated corneal tissue in New Zealand, 2000 to 2009. The New Zealand National Eye Bank records were analyzed for the decade January 2000 to December 2009. Variables analyzed included donor demographics (age, sex, and ethnicity), donor source, donor cause of death, death-to-preservation interval (DPI), corneal storage time, tissue contamination, endothelial assessment, cornea suitability for transplantation, and corneal tissue utilization. A total of 1268 eye donors were identified during the 10-year period. Overall, 36% (n = 457) were female and 64% male (n = 813). Median donor age was 67 years, and 23% of donors were younger than 50 years (range, 5-90 years). There was a decrease in donor age over the decade (P = 0.006). The median DPI was 18.5 hours. No relationship was identified between cornea suitability for transplantation and DPI (P = 0.28) or donor gender (P = 0.54). There was a low microbial contamination rate (1%). Human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B, or hepatitis C serology was positive in 48 donors (4%). Overall, 90% of corneas were suitable for transplantation with a high utilization rate (88%). A novel association was identified between male sex and lower corneal endothelial cell density (P = 0.03). This New Zealand National Eye Bank analysis identified trends in the acquisition, storage, and utilization of donated corneal tissue throughout New Zealand over the past decade and provides valuable additional information to the international eye bank data.

  17. Trends in absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Sweden and New Zealand. A 20-year gender perspective

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    Blakely Tony

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Both trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, and cross-country comparisons, may give more information about the causes of health inequalities. We analysed trends in socioeconomic differentials by mortality from early 1980s to late 1990s, comparing Sweden with New Zealand. Methods The New Zealand Census Mortality Study (NZCMS consisting of over 2 million individuals and the Swedish Survey of Living Conditions (ULF comprising over 100, 000 individuals were used for analyses. Education and household income were used as measures of socioeconomic position (SEP. The slope index of inequality (SII was calculated to estimate absolute inequalities in mortality. Analyses were based on 3–5 year follow-up and limited to individuals aged 25–77 years. Age standardised mortality rates were calculated using the European population standard. Results Absolute inequalities in mortality on average over the 1980s and 1990s for both men and women by education were similar in Sweden and New Zealand, but by income were greater in Sweden. Comparing trends in absolute inequalities over the 1980s and 1990s, men's absolute inequalities by education decreased by 66% in Sweden and by 17% in New Zealand (p for trend Conclusion Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were clearly most favourable for men in Sweden. Trends also seemed to be more favourable for men than women in New Zealand. Assuming the trends in male inequalities in Sweden were not a statistical chance finding, it is not clear what the substantive reason(s was for the pronounced decrease. Further gender comparisons are required.

  18. Trends in Antiparkinsonian Medication Use in New Zealand: 1995–2011

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    T. L. Pitcher

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prescribing trends for medications are influenced by development of new drugs, changes in knowledge about efficacy and side effects, and priorities set by funding agencies. Changes in the utilization of antiparkinsonian agents in the outpatient community in New Zealand were investigated by using the national prescription database for the period 1995–2011. The dispensed volumes of antiparkinsonian agents were converted into number of defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day for analysis. Increases in the dispensed volumes of levodopa (77%, amantadine (350%, and catechol-o-methyl transferase inhibitors (326% occurred during the study period. Conversely, decreases in the dispensed volumes of anticholinergics (48%, selegiline (82%, and dopamine agonists (6.2% were observed. New Zealand has seen a substantial increase of the amount of levodopa dispensed in the past 17 years. This increase appears to be related to an increase in the number of people taking the medication. We are unable to extrapolate this change to an increase in the prevalence of PD, given levodopa is used in the treatment of a number of medical conditions. The changes in other antiparkinsonian medications largely reflect changes in availability (increases in entacapone and ropinirole and best practice treatment (declines in anticholinergics, selegiline, and tolcapone.

  19. Achilles tenotomy as an office procedure and current practising trends among New Zealand orthopaedic surgeons.

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    Agius, Lewis; Wickham, Angus; Walker, Cameron; Knudsen, Joshua

    2018-05-18

    Percutaneous Achilles tenotomy (PAT) is performed during the final phase of casting with Ponseti method. Several settings have been proposed as venues for this procedure, however it is increasingly being performed in theatre under a general anaesthetic (GA). General anaesthesia, however, is expensive and not without risks. The purpose of the present study was to compare results of outpatient releases to theatre releases, and assess current practising trends among orthopaedic surgeons. Retrospective comparison of patients with idiopathic clubfoot managed by Ponseti method who had Achilles tenotomy performed in outpatient clinic and in theatre. Surveys were sent to all POSNZ members to determine current practising trends in New Zealand. Parental satisfaction surveys were performed. Comparative cost analysis was performed using hospital billing information. The current study includes 64 idiopathic congenital clubfeet (19 bilateral cases). PAT was performed on 26 clubfeet under local anaesthetic in an outpatient setting, and 33 clubfeet under GA in a theatre setting. There was no significant difference for post-operative complications, or recurrence (p=0.67). Those in theatre group were exposed to a greater number of general anaesthetics before the age of four. Among practising New Zealand paediatric orthopaedic surgeons, 77.78% perform this in theatre under general anaesthesia, while only 22.22% perform PAT in outpatient clinic. The main barriers included concerns regarding pain control, concerns regarding incomplete release, concerns regarding distress to family and concerns regarding sterility. Parental satisfaction surveys found pain management to be excellent. Financial data was analysed and indicative costs were $6,061 NZD per procedure in theatre, compared to $378 NZD per procedure in clinic. PAT performed in a clinic setting is both safe and efficacious with results comparative to that performed in theatre. There was no difference in post

  20. Is Didymosphenia geminata an introduced species in New Zealand? Evidence from trends in water chemistry, and chloroplast DNA.

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    Kilroy, Cathy; Novis, Phil

    2018-01-01

    Defining the geographic origins of free-living aquatic microorganisms can be problematic because many such organisms have ubiquitous distributions, and proving absence from a region is practically impossible. Geographic origins become important if microorganisms have invasive characteristics. The freshwater diatom Didymosphenia geminata is a potentially ubiquitous microorganism for which the recent global expansion of nuisance proliferations has been attributed to environmental change. The changes may include declines in dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) to low levels (e.g., 10 mg/m 3 because both these nutrient conditions are associated with nuisance proliferations of D. geminata . Proliferations of D. geminata have been observed in South Island, New Zealand, since 2004. We aimed to address the ubiquity hypothesis for D. geminata in New Zealand using historical river water nutrient data and new molecular analyses. We used 15 years of data at 77 river sites to assess whether trends in DRP or DIN prior to the spread of D. geminata were consistent with a transition from a rare, undetected, species to a nuisance species. We used new sequences of chloroplast regions to examine the genetic similarity of D. geminata populations from New Zealand and six overseas locations. We found no evidence for declines in DRP concentrations since 1989 that could explain the spread of proliferations since 2004. At some affected sites, lowest DRP occurred before 2004. Trends in DIN also did not indicate enhanced suitability for D. geminata . Lack of diversity in the chloroplast intergenic regions of New Zealand populations and populations from western North America is consistent with recent dispersal to New Zealand. Our analyses did not support the proposal that D. geminata was historically present in New Zealand rivers. These results provide further evidence countering proposals of general ubiquity in freshwater diatoms and indicate that, as assumed in 2004, D. geminata is a

  1. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  2. Recent Trends in Alcohol and Other Drug Use Among Police Detainees in New Zealand, 2010-2015.

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    Wilkins, Chris; Prasad, Jitesh; Parker, Karl; Rychert, Marta; Barnes, Helen Moewaka

    New Zealand has unusual patterns of recreational substance use by international standards including low levels of cocaine and heroin use, and high methamphetamine use. This paper examines recent trends in alcohol and other drug use among police detainees in New Zealand over the past six years. The paper utilises data from the New Zealand Arrestee Drug Use Monitoring (NZ-ADUM) study. NZ-ADUM interviewed approximately 800 police detainees each year at four central city police watch houses (i.e. Whangarei, Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch) from 2010 to 2015. The proportion of police detainees who had used methamphetamine in the previous year increased from 28% in 2012 to 36% in 2015. Drinking prior to arrest declined from 41% in 2013 to 28% in 2015. The use of cannabis in the past year declined slightly from 76% in 2011 to 69% in 2015. The proportion using ecstasy in the previous year steadily declined from 28% in 2011 to 19% in 2015. Only small minorities had recently used cocaine or an opioid. Use of methamphetamine and ecstasy increased in Christchurch. Growing methamphetamine use is consistent with record seizures of methamphetamine over the past 2-3 years. Increasing drug use in Christchurch may reflect factors related to the devastating earthquakes in 2011 and the subsequent city rebuild, including an influx of construction workers, more organised trafficking groups and earthquake-related stress. The decline in cannabis use may be related to the emergence of 'legal' synthetic cannabinoids. The decline in ecstasy use may be the result of recent domestic enforcement operations and the overall global shortage of MDMA. The decline in alcohol drinking may be due to the introduction of pre-charge formal warnings for minor alcohol and disorder offences, and new restrictions on alcohol premise opening hours. Acknowledgements: The New Zealand Drug Use Monitoring (NZ-ADUM) research study is funded by the New Zealand Police and is conducted by SHORE and Whariki Research

  3. Trans fats in New Zealand: time for labelling regulations?

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    Gladding, Patrick; Benatar, Jocelyne R

    2007-11-09

    Trans fats (trans fatty acids) are commonly used for deep frying in restaurants and in the fast food, snack food, fried food, and baked goods industries, often to extend the shelf life of foods. However they are widely considered to be harmful to health. Trans fats were banned in New York City restaurants from 1 July 2007, and there is growing vocal opposition to trans fats in the European Union. Denmark became the first country, in March 2003, to introduce laws regulating the content of trans fats in food (maximum of 2% of edible fats and oils). What are trans fats, what harm do they cause, and should New Zealand also consider imposing mandatory regulations on their use in food? This article explores the issues.

  4. Acculturation of Pacific mothers in New Zealand over time: findings from the Pacific Islands Families study

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    Schluter Philip J

    2011-05-01

    .010, -0.008, after adjusting for maternal age. Mothers who lived their lives in New Zealand had a Pacific orientation that was, on average, unchanged regardless of the number of years lived in New Zealand. Significant ethnic and socio-demographic variations were noted. Conclusions Understanding the patterns and trajectories of acculturation over time, and its key determinants, is necessary for the development of appropriate targeted health policy and care in typically vulnerable and marginalised immigrant populations.

  5. Acculturation of Pacific mothers in New Zealand over time: findings from the Pacific Islands Families study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    adjusting for maternal age. Mothers who lived their lives in New Zealand had a Pacific orientation that was, on average, unchanged regardless of the number of years lived in New Zealand. Significant ethnic and socio-demographic variations were noted. Conclusions Understanding the patterns and trajectories of acculturation over time, and its key determinants, is necessary for the development of appropriate targeted health policy and care in typically vulnerable and marginalised immigrant populations. PMID:21569444

  6. Contemporary trends in urinary tract stone surgery, a regional perspective: Auckland, New Zealand.

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    Acland, George; Zargar-Shoshtari, Kamran; Rice, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study is to assess the contemporary patterns of utilization of various therapeutic options for the management of nephrolithiasis in our tertiary referral institution in Auckland, New Zealand. A retrospective audit was conducted for all urinary stone procedures between January 2007 and December 2013. Procedure-related information was collected for each year. All elective and emergency procedures were included. Data were collected on the elective waiting lists for each procedure. A total of 5512 stone-related cases were performed during the study period. Six hundred and fifty-three cases were performed in 2007 compared with 945 in 2013. Total number of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNLs) performed, as well as the proportion of PCNL cases, demonstrated a significant decline from 84 (12.9%) in 2007 to 67 (7.1%) in 2013. While the annual numbers of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWLs) have increased, the percentage of ESWLs performed relative to total stone procedures has declined from 33% to 23% over the last 4 years of this audit. There has been a significant rise in the numbers of rigid and flexible ureteroscopies, with these now being the most utilized procedure. The number of patients awaiting elective procedures declined over the duration of this audit, with an associated improvement in meeting annual demand for treatment of nephrolithiasis from 78% in 2007 to 91% in 2013. A proportional decline in PCNL and ESWL utilization with a significant increase in flexible and rigid ureteroscopic procedures has been observed over this time and this pattern has been associated with improved adherence to surgical targets despite an increasing number of cases. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  7. A content analysis of the portrayal of alcohol in televised music videos in New Zealand: changes over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloane, Kate; Wilson, Nick; Imlach Gunasekara, Fiona

    2013-01-01

    We aimed to: (i) document the extent and nature of alcohol portrayal in televised music videos in New Zealand in 2010; and (ii) assess trends over time by comparing with a similar 2005 sample. We undertook a content analysis for references to alcohol in 861 music videos shown on a youth-orientated television channel in New Zealand. This was compared with a sample in 2005 (564 music videos on the same channel plus sampling from two other channels). The proportion of alcohol content in the music videos was slightly higher in 2010 than for the same channel in the 2005 sample (19.5% vs. 15.7%) but this difference was not statistically significant. Only in the genre 'Rhythm and Blues' was the increase over time significant (P = 0.015). In both studies, the portrayal of alcohol was significantly more common in music videos where the main artist was international (not from New Zealand). Furthermore, in the music videos with alcohol content, at least a third of the time, alcohol was shown being consumed and the main artist was involved with alcohol. In only 2% (in 2005) and 4% (in 2010) of these videos was the tone explicitly negative towards alcohol. In both these studies, the portrayal of alcohol was relatively common in music videos. Nevertheless, there are various ways that policy makers can denormalise alcohol in youth-orientated media such as music videos or to compensate via other alcohol control measures such as higher alcohol taxes. © 2012 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  8. Dental technology services and industry trends in New Zealand from 2010 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alameri, S S; Aarts, J M; Smith, M; Waddell, J N

    2014-06-01

    To provide a snapshot of the New Zealand dental technology industry and influencing factors. Developing an understanding of the commercial dental laboratory environment in New Zealand can provide insight into the entire dental industry. A web-based survey was the primary method for data collection, with separate questionnaires used for dental laboratory owners and dental technician employees. The mean net income for dental laboratory owners in New Zealand was similar to that of the United Kingdom, at $40.50 per hour. Clinical dental technicians are the highest paid employees, with a mean of $33.49 per hour. The mean technical charge for complete dentures was $632.59; including clinical services, it was $1907.00. The mean charge for a porcelain-fused-to-metal (PFM) crown was $290.27. Dental laboratory owners expressed fear about the possibility of losing dental clients to overseas laboratories due to the availability and cheap charge of offshore work. Only 25.4% of dental laboratories surveyed had computer-aided design (CAD) facilities, and even fewer (7.9%) had computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) systems. Clinical dental technology appears to be prospering. The dental technology industry appears to be adapting and remains viable, despite facing many challenges.

  9. Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

    OpenAIRE

    Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

  10. Trends in total column ozone over Australia and New Zealand and its influence on clear-sky surface erythemal irradiance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodeker, G. E.

    1995-01-01

    Australia and New Zealand are two of the countries closest to the Antarctic ozone depletion and may therefore be 'at risk' as a result of the associated increases in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To investigate the possible impact of mid-latitude ozone decreases on surface erythemal irradiances, monthly mean total ozone has been calculated from daily total ozone mapping spectrometer data for 5 Australian cities (Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney) and 3 New Zealand cities (Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington) from 1979 to 1992. These values have then been used as inputs to a single layer model to calculate noon clear-sky global UV irradiances and associated erythemal irradiances. In addition, the monthly mean ozone data have been modelled statistically for each location to reveal a long-term linear trend, an annual variation, a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), a solar cycle component and a semi-annual (6 month) signal. Coefficients from these statistical models have been used to estimate monthly mean ozone and noon clear-sky erythemal irradiances to the year 2000 for each city. It is assumed that the rate of increase of stratospheric chlorine over the remainder of the century will remain constant. Given that there is some evidence that the rate of increase is decreasing, the results present here should be regarded as an upper limit. 33 refs., 7 tabs., 4 figs

  11. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    ,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

  12. Short time series analysis of Didymosphenia geminata blooming in the Oreti River, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, T.; Kilroy, C.; Larned, S.; Packman, A. I.; Kumar, P.

    2010-12-01

    The mat-forming diatom Didymosphenia geminata was introduced to New Zealand in 2004, and subsequently spread to many rivers on the south island. D geminata mats are exceptionally dense and thick. Extensive blooms of this introduced organism have substantially modified the benthic environment in many New Zealand rivers, but the factors that contribute to D. geminata blooming are not well understood. We synthesized a sequence of observations of D. geminata areal coverage and thickness to examine physical and chemical controls on the growth and persistence of D germinata. We analyzed the best available time series on the distribution of this organism in New Zealand, observations in the Oreti River every 15 days spanning April 2006 to May 2007. During this period, mean D. geminata coverage of the river bed was ~52% and the mean mat thickness was ~6 mm. Relationships between time-series observations of D. geminata and 13 different physical and chemical variables were analyzed using linear and nonlinear methods. Areal cover and thickness of D geminata mats were found to be influenced by both slow and fast dynamic processes. The spread of the organism, in terms of % cover, was highly correlated with conductivity, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved oxygen, and total nitrogen with short time lags (fast dynamics). Moreover, water clarity, cloud cover, and flow were highly correlated with % cover with long time lags, indicating that these conditions exert long-term control on D. geminata growth. Areal coverage and thickness were found to be highly correlated, but the variables associated with slow and fast dynamics of these two measures were not identical. The variables found to be highly correlated with D. germinata thickness and represented fast dynamics were temperature, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, nitrate, and total nitrogen. Additionally, the variables influencing the slow dynamics of D. germinata thickness were flow, water clarity, turbidity and total phosphorous.

  13. The time light signals of New Zealand: yet another way of communicating time in the pre-wireless era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinns, Roger

    2017-08-01

    The signalling of exact time using an array of lights appears to have been unique to New Zealand. It was a simple and effective solution for calibration of marine chronometers when transmission of time signals by wireless was in its infancy. Three lights, coloured green, red and white, were arranged in a vertical array. They were switched on in a defined sequence during the evening and then extinguished together to signal exact time. Time lights were first operated at the Dominion Observatory in Wellington during February 1912 and on the Ferry Building in Auckland during October 1915. The Wellington lights were immediately adjacent to the observatory buildings, but those in Auckland were operated using telegraph signals from Wellington. The timings varied over the years, but the same physical arrangement was retained at each location. The time light service was withdrawn during 1937, when wireless signals had become almost universally available for civil and navigation purposes.

  14. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  15. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

  16. Trends in the industrial science and technology policies and an overview of the innovation system in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-01-01

    The paper reported the investigation into policies on industrial science technology of the New Zealand government. In 1996, the New Zealand government adopted high-grade strategic priorities on research, science and technology. Those are as follows: The social value/attitude that scientific technology is critical for the future prosperity is to be created; An adequate level of investment in science is to be ensured as a part of the national life; Benefits of scientific technology are to be enjoyed for social/economical/environmental preservation. As goals of the scientific technology, the following were set up: innovation goal to enhance the innovative capacity of New Zealand by knowledge creation, reinforcement of human/social capitals, and education systems; goal to strengthen the competitive force of enterprises of New Zealand by new products, processes, and systems/services; goal to increase the knowledge of the environment for maintaining the healthy environment; goal to build the society where all New Zealanders can enjoy health, independence and identity. (NEDO)

  17. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  18. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  19. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

  20. Timing of Late Holocene surface rupture of the Wairau Fault, Marlborough, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariasen, J.; Berryman, K.R.; Langridge, R.M.; Prentice, C.; Rymer, M.; Stirling, M.W.; Villamor, P.

    2006-01-01

    Three trenches excavated across the central portion of the right-lateral strike-slip Wairau Fault in South Island, New Zealand, exposed a complex set of fault strands that have displaced a sequence of late Holocene alluvial and colluvial deposits. Abundant charcoal fragments provide age control for various stratigraphic horizons dating back to c. 5610 yr ago. Faulting relations from the Wadsworth trench show that the most recent surface rupture event occurred at least 1290 yr and at most 2740 yr ago. Drowned trees in landslide-dammed Lake Chalice, in combination with charcoal from the base of an unfaulted colluvial wedge at Wadsworth trench, suggest a narrower time bracket for this event of 1811-2301 cal. yr BP. The penultimate faulting event occurred between c. 2370 and 3380 yr, and possibly near 2680 ± 60 cal. yr BP, when data from both the Wadsworth and Dillon trenches are combined. Two older events have been recognised from Dillon trench but remain poorly dated. A probable elapsed time of at least 1811 yr since the last surface rupture, and an average slip rate estimate for the Wairau Fault of 3-5 mm/yr, suggests that at least 5.4 m and up to 11.5 m of elastic shear strain has accumulated since the last rupture. This is near to or greater than the single-event displacement estimates of 5-7 m. The average recurrence interval for surface rupture of the fault determined from the trench data is 1150-1400 yr. Although the uncertainties in the timing of faulting events and variability in inter-event times remain high, the time elapsed since the last event is in the order of 1-2 times the average recurrence interval, implying that the Wairau Fault is near the end of its interseismic period. (author). 44 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  1. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  2. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  3. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  4. Medical resource utilization for administration of trastuzumab in a New Zealand oncology outpatient setting: a time and motion study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    North RT

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Richard T North,1 Vernon J Harvey,2 Levonne C Cox,2 Stuart N Ryan3 1Cancer and Haematology Service, Tauranga Hospital, Tauranga, 2Regional Cancer and Blood Centre, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, 3Medical Affairs, Roche Products (New Zealand Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand Background: In New Zealand, trastuzumab is standard therapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2-positive early and metastatic breast cancer. Given the requirement for ongoing adjuvant or maintenance treatment and intravenous (IV delivery, such a regimen consumes considerable health care resources. The development of a subcutaneous (SC trastuzumab formulation with a short administration time offers the potential to reduce hospital expenditure. The aim of this study was to determine medical resource utilization associated with administration of trastuzumab SC injection via handheld syringe vs trastuzumab IV infusion in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer in New Zealand. Methods: This noninterventional, descriptive study was conducted at the outpatient oncology centers at Auckland City and Tauranga Hospitals. Trained observers recorded times associated with health care professional (HCP tasks and consumables use associated with preparation and administration of trastuzumab IV or SC in women with early or metastatic breast cancer. The cost for each formulation was calculated as the mean cost of HCP time (based on Pharmaceutical Management Agency hourly rates plus the mean cost of consumables used. Results: Use of trastuzumab SC vs IV reduced mean chair time by 36.95 minutes and total nurse time by 6.12 minutes; there was a 20.45-minute reduction in pharmacist time when the SC formulation was used. After adding consumable costs, the overall estimated saving with trastuzumab SC vs IV was $76.94 (New Zealand dollars per patient per cycle. Conclusions: Compared with trastuzumab IV infusion, administration of trastuzumab via SC injection reduced time spent in the

  5. Investigating real-time monitoring of fatigue indicators of New Zealand forestry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Judy; Hinze, Annika; Griffiths, Christopher

    2017-12-27

    The New Zealand forestry industry has one of the highest fatality and injury rates of any industrial sector in the country. Worker fatigue has been identified as one of the main contributing factors. Currently no independent and objective large data source is available that might support an analysis of this, or provide the basis for ongoing monitoring to further investigate. In order to successfully manage fatigue in the forestry workplace, we must identify suitable ways of detecting it. Industry partners are increasingly looking at monitoring solutions (particularly lightweight, wearable technology) that aim to measure worker activities and physiological metrics in order to determine if they are fatigued. In this article we present the results of studies which investigate whether or not such technology can capture meaningful data in a reliable way that is both practical and usable within the forestry domain. Two series of studies were undertaken with in-situ forestry workers using reaction and decision-making times as a measure of potential impairment, while considering activity levels (via step count and heart rate) and job-roles. We present the results of these studies and further provide a comparison of results across different ambient temperatures (winter vs. summer periods). The results of our studies suggest that it may not be possible to identify correlations between workloads (based on both physical and cognitive stresses) and fatigue measures using in-situ measurements as results are highly personalised to individual workers and can be misleading if the wider context is not also taken into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    : To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

  7. Funding New Zealand's public healthcare system: time for an honest appraisal and public debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keene, Lyndon; Bagshaw, Philip; Nicholls, M Gary; Rosenberg, Bill; Frampton, Christopher M; Powell, Ian

    2016-05-27

    Successive New Zealand governments have claimed that the cost of funding the country's public healthcare services is excessive and unsustainable. We contest that these claims are based on a misrepresentation of healthcare spending. Using data from the New Zealand Treasury and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), we show how government spending as a whole is low compared with most other OECD countries and is falling as a proportion of GDP. New Zealand has a modest level of health spending overall, but government health spending is also falling as a proportion of GDP. Together, the data indicate the New Zealand Government can afford to spend more on healthcare. We identify compelling reasons why it should do so, including forecast growing health need, signs of increasing unmet need, and the fact that if health needs are not met the costs still have to be borne by the economy. The evidence further suggests it is economically and socially beneficial to meet health needs through a public health system. An honest appraisal and public debate is needed to determine more appropriate levels of healthcare spending.

  8. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

  9. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  10. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  11. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  12. Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

  13. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

  14. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  15. Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

    OpenAIRE

    Wilhelmsen, Tiril

    2017-01-01

    Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

  16. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  17. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  18. Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenberg, Amnon

    2014-09-01

    The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

  19. Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayer, Liana C.

    2005-01-01

    This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

  20. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  1. Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

    2012-01-01

    This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

  2. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

    2011-09-01

    To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

  4. Faculty of Radiation Oncology 2014 Workforce Census: a comparison of New Zealand and Australian responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Melissa; Munro, Philip M; Leung, John

    2015-04-17

    This paper outlines the key results of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists (RANZCR) Faculty of Radiation Oncology (FRO) 2014 workforce census, and compares the results of New Zealand and Australian responses in order to identify similarities and differences in workforce characteristics. The workforce census was conducted online in mid-2014. The census was distributed to all radiation oncologists (Fellows, life members, educational affiliates, retired) and radiation oncology trainees on the RANZCR membership database. Six weekly reminders were sent to non-respondents and all responses were aggregated for analysis. This paper addresses only consultant radiation oncologist responses. The combined response rate for New Zealand radiation oncologists was 85.7% (compared with 76% from Australian respondents). The census found that the demographic characteristics of New Zealand and Australian radiation oncologists are similar. Points of difference include (i) the role of educational affiliates in New Zealand, (ii) New Zealand radiation oncologists reporting higher hours spent at work, (iii) New Zealand radiation oncologists spending a higher proportion of time on clinical duties, (iv) A lower proportion of New Zealand radiation oncologists with higher degrees, and (v) private/ public workplace mix. A comparison by country would suggest that there are many similarities, but also some important differences that may affect workforce issues in New Zealand. Separate datasets are useful for RANZCR to better inform members, governments and other key stakeholders in each country. Separate datasets also provide a basis for comparison with future surveys to facilitate the monitoring of trends.

  5. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  6. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  7. Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.

    2005-01-01

    The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

  8. Multi variate regression model of the water level and production rate time series of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Michael; Schöne, Tim

    2017-04-01

    Water management tools are essential to ensure the conservation of natural resources. The geothermal hot water reservoir below the village of Waiwera, on the Northern Island of New Zealand is used commercially since 1863. The continuous production of 50 °C hot geothermal water, to supply hotels and spas, has a negative impact on the reservoir. Until the year 1969 from all wells drilled the warm water flow was artesian. Due to overproduction the water needs to be pumped up nowadays. Further, within the years 1975 to 1976 the warm water seeps on the beach of Waiwera ran dry. In order to protect the reservoir and the historical and tourist site in the early 1980s a water management plan was deployed. The "Auckland Council" established guidelines to enable a sustainable management of the resource [1]. The management plan demands that the water level in the official and appropriate observation well of the council is 0.5 m above sea level throughout the year in average. Almost four decades of data (since 1978 until today) are now available [2]. For a sustainable water management, it is necessary to be able to forecast the water level as a function of the production rates in the production wells. The best predictions are provided by a multivariate regression model of the water level and production rate time series, which takes into account the production rates of individual wells. It is based on the inversely proportional relationship between the independent variable (production rate) and the dependent variable (measured water level). In production scenarios, a maximum total production rate of approx. 1,100 m3 / day is determined in order to comply with the guidelines of the "Auckland Council". [1] Kühn M., Stöfen H. (2005) A reactive flow model of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera, New Zealand. Hydrogeology Journal 13, 606-626, doi: 10.1007/s10040-004-0377-6 [2] Kühn M., Altmannsberger C. (2016) Assessment of data driven and process based water management tools for

  9. Review of registration requirements for new part-time doctors in New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitch, Sharon; Dovey, Susan M

    2010-12-01

    By the time medical students graduate many wish to work part-time while accommodating other lifestyle interests. To review flexibility of medical registration requirements for provisional registrants in New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Canada. Internet-based review of registration bodies of each country, and each state or province in Australia and Canada, supplemented by emails and phone calls seeking clarification of missing or obscure information. Data from 20 regions were examined. Many similarities were found between study countries in their approaches to the registration of new doctors, although there are some regional differences. Most regions (65%) have a provisional registration period of one year. Extending this period was possible in 91% of regions. Part-time options were possible in 75% of regions. All regions required trainees to work in approved practice settings. Only the UK provided comprehensive documentation of their requirements in an accessible format and clearly explaining the options for part-time work. Australia appeared to be more flexible than other countries with respect to part- and full-time work requirements. All countries need to examine their registration requirements to introduce more flexibility wherever possible, as a strategy for addressing workforce shortages.

  10. 30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012: A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery L Feigin

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ over 30-years.Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution.5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31% and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%, respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years. There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17% across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in

  11. 30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, Valery L; Krishnamurthi, Rita V; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M; Barber, P Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

    2015-01-01

    Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency

  12. 30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, Valery L.; Krishnamurthi, Rita V.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M.; Barber, P. Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A.; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G.; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

    2015-01-01

    Background Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Methods Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981–1982, 1991–1992, 2002–2003 and 2011–2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. Results 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes

  13. Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

    2013-12-01

    To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  15. Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

    2014-08-15

    Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

  16. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  17. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  18. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  19. Natural vs human-induced changes at the Tauranga Harbour area (New Zealand): a time -series acoustic seabed classification comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capperucci, Ruggero Maria; Bartholomä, Alexander; Renken, Sabrina; De Lange, Willem

    2013-04-01

    The Tauranga Harbour Bay (New Zealand) is a mesotidal estuary system, enclosed by the Matakana barrier island. It hosts the leading export port in New Zealand and the second largest import port by value. Coastal changes are well documented over the last decades, mainly at the southern entrance of the area, between Matakana Island and Mt. Maunganui. It is an extremely dynamic environment, where natural processes are strongly influenced by human activities. In particular, the understanding of the recent evolution of the system is crucial for policymakers. In fact, the cumulative impact due to the maintenance of the port (mainly dredging activities, shipping, facilities construction, but also increasing tourism) and its already approved expansion clashes with the claim of the local Maori communities, which recently leaded to a court action. A hydroacoustic multiple-device survey (Side-scan Sonar SSS, Multibeam Echo-sounder MBES and Single Beam Echo-sounder) coupled with sediment sampling was carried out in March 2011 over an area of 0.8 km2, southern Matakana Island, along the Western Channel. The area is not directly impacted by dredging activities, resulting in an optimal testing site for assessing indirect effects of human disturbance on coastal dynamics. The main goals were: 1. To test the response of different acoustic systems in such a highly dynamic environment; 2. To study the influence of dredging activities on sediment dynamics and habitat changes, by means of comparing the current data with existing ones, in order to distinguish between natural and human induced changes Results demonstrate a good agreement between acoustic classifications from different systems. They seem to be mainly driven by the sediment distribution, with a distinctive fingerprint given by shells and shell fragments. Nevertheless, the presence of relevant topographic features (i.e. large bedform fields) influences swath-looking systems (SSS and MBES). SSS and MBES classifications tend

  20. Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

    2018-02-01

    The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

  1. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  2. Racism and health in New Zealand: Prevalence over time and associations between recent experience of racism and health and wellbeing measures using national survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, James; Cormack, Donna M.

    2018-01-01

    Objectives Racism is an important health determinant that contributes to ethnic health inequities. This study sought to describe New Zealand adults’ reported recent experiences of racism over a 10 year period. It also sought to examine the association between recent experience of racism and a range of negative health and wellbeing measures. Methods The study utilised previously collected data from multiple cross-sectional national surveys (New Zealand Health Surveys 2002/03, 2006/07, 2011/12; and General Social Surveys 2008, 2010, 2012) to provide prevalence estimates of reported experience of racism (in the last 12 months) by major ethnic groupings in New Zealand. Meta-analytical techniques were used to provide improved estimates of the association between recent experience of racism and negative health from multivariable models, for the total cohorts and stratified by ethnicity. Results Reported recent experience of racism was highest among Asian participants followed by Māori and Pacific peoples, with Europeans reporting the lowest experience of racism. Among Asian participants, reported experience of racism was higher for those born overseas compared to those born in New Zealand. Recent experience of racism appeared to be declining for most groups over the time period examined. Experience of racism in the last 12 months was consistently associated with negative measures of health and wellbeing (SF-12 physical and mental health component scores, self-rated health, overall life satisfaction). While exposure to racism was more common in the non-European ethnic groups, the impact of recent exposure to racism on health was similar across ethnic groups, with the exception of SF-12 physical health. Conclusions The higher experience of racism among non-European groups remains an issue in New Zealand and its potential effects on health may contribute to ethnic health inequities. Ongoing focus and monitoring of racism as a determinant of health is required to inform

  3. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  4. It's time to set some standards: Environmental classification of freshwater wetlands in New Zealand and their protection from eutrophication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorrell, Brian Keith; Clarkson, Beverly

    Most natural resource plans provide protection for lakes and rivers from catchment activities leading to eutrophication. However, they are often silent about wetlands, due to the lack of information available for setting standards, defining reference conditions, and predicting responses to nutrient...... states in New Zealand wetlands, present an environmental classification based on physico-chemical and nutrient data, compare wetlands in New Zealand with those in other temperate regions, and argue for some catchment land use standards to protect wetlands from nutrient enrichment. Our database reveals...... that New Zealand wetlands, like those in other temperate climates, are defined by specific alkalinity and nutrient gradients and that there is a wide range of fertility levels. Using regression tree analysis, we have identified environmental groups of wetlands with significantly distinct nutrient regimes...

  5. Are mortality differences and trends by education any better or worse in New Zealand? A comparison study with Norway, Denmark and Finland, 1980-1990s

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fawcett, Jackie; Blakely, Tony; Kunst, Anton

    2005-01-01

    During the 1980s and early 1990s New Zealand experienced major social and economic change, decreasing all-cause mortality rates for the majority ethnic group, and high (but falling) cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates. This paper explores whether inequalities in mortality by education were

  6. What are the associations between neighbourhood walkability and sedentary time in New Zealand adults? The URBAN cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinckson, Erica; Cerin, Ester; Mavoa, Surzanne; Smith, Melody; Badland, Hannah; Witten, Karen; Kearns, Robin; Schofield, Grant

    2017-10-22

    We estimated associations between objectively determined neighbourhood 'walkability' attributes and accelerometer-derived sedentary time (ST) by sex, city or type of day. A cross-sectional study. The URBAN (Understanding the Relationship between Activity and Neighbourhoods) study was conducted in 48 neighbourhoods across four cities in New Zealand (August 2008 to October 2010). The response rate was 41% (2029 recruited participants/5007 eligible households approached). In total, 1762 participants (aged 41.4±12.1, mean±SD) met the data inclusion criteria and were included in analyses. The exposure variables were geographical information system (GIS) measures of neighbourhood walkability (ie, street connectivity, residential density, land-use mix, retail footprint area ratio) for street network buffers of 500 m and 1000 m around residential addresses. Participants wore an accelerometer for 7 days. The outcome measure was average daily minutes of ST. Data were available from 1762 participants (aged 41.4±12.1 years; 58% women). No significant main effects of GIS-based neighbourhood walkability measures were found with ST. Retail footprint area ratio was negatively associated with sedentary time in women, significant only for 500 m residential buffers. An increase of 1 decile in street connectivity was significantly associated with a decrease of over 5 min of ST per day in Christchurch residents for both residential buffers. Neighbourhoods with proximal retail and higher street connectivity seem to be associated with less ST. These effects were sex and city specific. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  8. The work-related fatal injury study: numbers, rates and trends of work-related fatal injuries in New Zealand 1985-1994.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyer, A M; Langley, J; Howard, M; Horsburgh, S; Wright, C; Alsop, J; Cryer, C

    2001-01-26

    To determine the number and rates of work-related fatal injuries by employment status, occupation, industry, age and gender in New Zealand 1985-1994. Potential cases of work-related injury deaths of persons aged 15-84 years were identified from the national electronic mortality data files. Main exclusions were deaths due to suicide and deaths due to motor vehicle crashes. The circumstances of the deaths of each fatal incident meeting inclusion criteria were then reviewed directly from coronial files to determine work-relatedness. The rate of work-related fatal injury in New Zealand was 5.03/100000 workers per year for the study period. There was a significant decline in crude rate over the study period. However, this was in substantial part accounted for by changes in occupation and industry mix. Older workers, male workers, self-employed workers, and particular occupational groups, all had substantially elevated rates. Agricultural and helicopter pilots, forestry workers and fishery workers had the highest rates. Farmers, forestry workers, and fishery workers also had high numbers of deaths, together accounting for nearly 40% of all deaths. This study has demonstrated that work-related fatal injury remains a pressing problem for New Zealand. Several areas in urgent need of prevention efforts were highlighted.

  9. Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

    2018-01-01

    For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

  10. Geographic Variations and Time Trends in Cancer Treatments in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jason C; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Lu, Christine Y

    2017-08-02

    Targeted therapies have become important treatment options for cancer care in many countries. This study aimed to examine recent trends in utilization of antineoplastic drugs, particularly the use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer, by geographic region in Taiwan (northern, midwestern, southern, and eastern regions and the outer islands). This was a retrospective observational study of antineoplastic agents using 2009-2012 quarterly claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Yearly market shares by prescription volume and costs for targeted therapies among total antineoplastic agents by region were estimated. We used multivariate regression model and ANOVA to examine variations in utilization of targeted therapies between geographic regions and used ARIMA models to estimate longitudinal trends. Population-adjusted use and costs of antineoplastic drugs (including targeted therapies) were highest in the southern region of Taiwan and lowest in the outer islands. We found a 4-fold difference in use of antineoplastic drugs and a 49-fold difference in use of targeted therapies between regions if the outer islands were included. There were minimal differences in use of antineoplastic drugs between other regions with about a 2-fold difference in use of targeted therapies. Without considering the outer islands, the market share by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies increased almost 2-fold (1.84-1.90) and 1.5-fold (1.26-1.61) respectively between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, region was not significantly associated with use of antineoplastic agents or use of targeted therapies after adjusting for confounders. Region was associated with costs of antineoplastic agents but it was not associated with costs of targeted therapies after confounding adjustments. Use of antineoplastic drugs overall and use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer varied somewhat between regions in Taiwan; use was notably low in the outer

  11. Marketing fat and sugar to children on New Zealand television.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Signal, Louise; Nicholls, Sarah; Thomson, George

    2006-02-01

    We aimed to determine the frequency and content of television food advertisements during children's viewing times on various New Zealand television channels. A content analysis was conducted of two free-to-air channels covering a total of 155 h of television time during children's viewing times (n = 858 food advertisements in 2005). Comparisons were made with data from 1997 and data from Australia. Compared to Australian channels, both New Zealand channels (TV3 and TV2) had significantly higher proportions of food advertisements that were classified as being "high in fat and/or sugar" (54% versus 80% and 69%, respectively). Using a more detailed classification system, 70.3% of food advertisements on the New Zealand channels were for foods "counter to improved nutrition" (95% CI: 67.1%, 73.3%) compared to those "favoring improved nutrition" at 5.1% (95% CI: 3.8%, 6.9%). The number of food advertisements per hour was higher in 2005 than in 1997 for the channel (TV2) for which there was time trend data (12.8 versus 8.0 per hour for the afternoon time slot). These findings provide further evidence that the majority of food advertising on New Zealand television is counter to nutritional guidelines. They suggest the need for further regulatory or other controls.

  12. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  13. Multi-granular trend detection for time-series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Goethem, A.I.; Staals, F.; Löffler, M.; Dykes, J.; Speckmann, B.

    2017-01-01

    Time series (such as stock prices) and ensembles (such as model runs for weather forecasts) are two important types of one-dimensional time-varying data. Such data is readily available in large quantities but visual analysis of the raw data quickly becomes infeasible, even for moderately sized data

  14. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  15. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

    1999-02-01

    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  16. Epidemic of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in New Zealand Remains Unexplained

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, B.; Liu, C. W.; Sneyd, M. J.; Cameron, C. M.

    2014-01-01

    Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) incidence rates have increased considerably in New Zealand. Methods. Incidence and mortality rates for NHL from 1981 to 2010 were calculated. Trends in age-specific rates were analysed and age-period-cohort models fitted to explore generation-specific changes in incidence and mortality. Results. NHL incidence increased by 67% for men and 74% for women between the 1981-1985 and 2006-2010 time periods in New Zealand. For women born about 1936 and men born about 1946, NHL incidence and mortality have diverged suggesting an improved prognosis for recent generations. Conclusion. The strong generation effects suggest that an exposure before 25 years of age is of major importance in determining the lifetime risk of NHL in New Zealand. NHL incidence rates in New Zealand will continue to increase in the future and probably more in females than males, as generations with increased risk age. Current hypotheses for the cause of NHL do not explain the trends observed. A decline in the prevalence of a protective factor may have also contributed to these trends. Examination of trends for subtypes of NHL and innovative testable hypotheses that may explain these trends are needed.

  17. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-03-27

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits related to this shorter preoperative fasting include the reduction of postoperative gastrointestinal discomfort and insulin resistance. New formulas containing amino acids such as glutamine and other peptides are being studied and are promising candidates to be used to reduce preoperative fasting time.

  18. Reducing preoperative fasting time: A trend based on evidence

    OpenAIRE

    de Aguilar-Nascimento, José Eduardo; Dock-Nascimento, Diana Borges

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative fasting is mandatory before anesthesia to reduce the risk of aspiration. However, the prescribed 6-8 h of fasting is usually prolonged to 12-16 h for various reasons. Prolonged fasting triggers a metabolic response that precipitates gluconeogenesis and increases the organic response to trauma. Various randomized trials and meta-analyses have consistently shown that is safe to reduce the preoperative fasting time with a carbohydrate-rich drink up to 2 h before surgery. Benefits re...

  19. The use of a co-design model in improving timely bleed reporting by adults with haemophilia living in the Auckland region of New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Young, A I; Young, L; Ockelford, P A; Brasser, M; Slavin, K; Manson, L; Preston, S

    2014-05-01

    Many adult patients diagnosed with phenotypically moderate and severe haemophilia living in the Auckland region of New Zealand do not report bleeding episodes within a timeframe that allows for optimal assessment and management. This can result in poor clinical outcomes for patients and poor oversight of the use of expensive clotting factor concentrates. Our goal was to improve both the number and speed at which bleeding episodes were reported to our centre, improving access to care and clinical oversight of the use of expensive factor concentrates and aiding the development of a care partnership with patients. We worked with 70 adult PWH living in the Auckland region of New Zealand with moderate and severe haemophilia A and B. Over a 5-month period between March and July 2013 we used a co-design model to develop and implement a range of strategies to improve the timing and frequency of bleed reporting. Mean bleed reporting time was reduced threefold, with a threefold increase in the number of bleeds reported per month. We reduced the number of bleeding episodes reported outside of a prespecified 48-h time limit by 68%. We significantly improved bleed reporting and time to report, indicating improved access to our services, improved clinical oversight and improved accountability to our national funder. We have achieved a care partnership and a reduction in factor consumption for the study population without compromising the quality of care they receive. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M.

    1988-01-01

    One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

  1. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  2. Time-dependent inversions of slow slip at the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand, using numerical Green's functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. A.; Wallace, L. M.; Bartlow, N. M.

    2017-12-01

    Slow slip events (SSEs) have been observed throughout the world, and the existence of these events has fundamentally altered our understanding of the possible ranges of slip behavior at subduction plate boundaries. In New Zealand, SSEs occur along the Hikurangi Margin, with shallower events in the north and deeper events to the south. In a recent study, Williams and Wallace (2015) found that static SSE inversions that consider elastic property variations provided significantly different results than those based on an elastic half-space. For deeper events, the heterogeneous models predicted smaller amounts of slip, while for shallower events the heterogeneous model predicted larger amounts of slip. In this study, we extend our initial work to examine the temporal variations in slip. We generate Green's functions using the PyLith finite element code (Aagaard et al., 2013) to allow consideration of elastic property variations provided by the New Zealand-wide seismic velocity model (Eberhart-Phillips et al., 2010). These Green's functions are then integrated to provide Green's functions compatible with the Network Inversion Filter (NIF, Segall and Matthews,1997; McGuire and Segall, 2003; Miyazaki et al.,2006). We examine 12 SSEs occurring along the Hikurangi Margin during 2010 and 2011, and compare the results using heterogeneous Green's functions with those of Bartlow et al. (2014), who examined the same set of SSEs with the NIF using a uniform elastic half-space model. The use of heterogeneous Green's functions should provide a more accurate picture of the slip distribution and evolution of the SSEs. This will aid in understanding the correlations between SSEs and seismicity and/or tremor and the role of SSEs in the accommodation of plate motion budgets in New Zealand.

  3. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  4. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

  5. Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

  6. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

    OpenAIRE

    Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

  7. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  8. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  9. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  10. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  11. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  12. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  13. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  14. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

    2010-01-01

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  15. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  16. Solar energy. [New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benseman, R.

    1977-10-15

    The potential for solar space heating and solar water heating in New Zealand is discussed. Available solar energy in New Zealand is indicated, and the economics of solar space and water heating is considered. (WHK)

  17. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  18. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  19. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  20. International migration and New Zealand labour markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, R S

    1986-06-01

    "This paper seeks to assess the value of the overseas-born members of the labour force in ensuring a flexible labour supply in New Zealand since the beginning of the 1970s. Three main issues are considered: first, the role of the labour market in New Zealand's immigration policy; second, international migration trends and the labour market; and third, the evidence on migration and labour market segmentation in New Zealand." Data used are from official external migration statistics, quinquennial censuses, and recent research. The author notes that "in New Zealand immigration measures are currently being taken that emphasize that immigration continues to add to the flexibility of the labour market while uncontrolled emigration is a major cause of labour market instability." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) excerpt

  1. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  2. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  3. Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

  4. Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

    2008-01-01

    The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

  5. Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldehinkel, AJ

    This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

  6. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

  7. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  8. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  9. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  10. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  11. Nurses and the euthanasia debate: reflections from New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, M; Bickley Asher, J

    2015-03-01

    Through an examination of the present situation relating to legalizing euthanasia and/or physician-assisted death in New Zealand, this paper is intended to encourage nurses worldwide to ponder about their own position on the ever present topic of assisted dying and euthanasia. In New Zealand, euthanasia remains illegal, but in 2012, the 'End of Life Choice Bill' was put in the ballot for potential selection for consideration by Parliament, later to be withdrawn. However, it is increasingly likely that New Zealand will follow international trends to offer people a choice about how their lives should end, and that such a Bill will be resubmitted in the near future. Undoubtedly, the passage of such legislation would have an impact on the day-to-day practices of nurses who work with dying people. This article has been prepared following a comprehensive review of appropriate literature both in New Zealand and overseas. This article aims to highlight the importance of nursing input into any national debates concerning proposed euthanasia or assisted dying laws. The discussion therefore covers New Zealand's experience of such proposed legislation, that is, the draft Bill itself and the implications for nurses, the history of the assisted dying debate in New Zealand, public and professional opinion, and national and international nursing responses to euthanasia. New Zealand nurses will eventually have an opportunity to make their views on proposed euthanasia legislation known, and what such legislation might mean for their practice. Nurses everywhere should seriously consider their own knowledge and viewpoint on this vitally important topic, and be prepared to respond as both individuals and as part of their professional bodies when the time inevitably arrives. The result will be a better informed set of policies, regulations and legislation leading to a more meaningful and dignified experience for dying people and their families. Nurses need to be fully informed about

  12. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  13. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  14. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  16. Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

    2016-03-01

    Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  17. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  18. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  19. Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

    2012-01-01

    Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Hydrochemistry of New Zealand's aquifers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, M.R.

    2001-01-01

    Groundwater chemistry on a national scale has never been studied in New Zealand apart from a few studies on nitrate concentrations and pesticides. These studies are covered in Chapter 8 of this book. However general studies of groundwater chemistry, groundwater-rock interaction and regional characteristics of water quality have not been previously addressed in much detail. This is partly because New Zealand aquifers are relatively small on a world scale and are geologically and tectonically diverse (see Chapter 3). But New Zealand has also recently lacked a centralised agency responsible for groundwater quality, and therefore, no national assessments have been undertaken. In recent years, the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences has managed a programme of collecting and analysing the groundwater chemistry of key New Zealand aquifers. This programme is called the National Groundwater Monitoring Programme (NGMP) and is funded by the New Zealand Public Good Science Fund. The programme started in 1990 using only 22 wells, with four regional authorities of the country participating. The NGMP now includes all 15 regional and unitary authorities that use groundwater and over 100 monitoring sites. The NGMP is considered a nationally significant database by the New Zealand Foundation for Research Science and Technology. The NGMP allows a national comparison of aquifer chemistries because the samples are all analysed at one laboratory in a consistent manner and undergo stringent quality control checks. Poor quality analyses are thus minimised. In addition, samples are collected quarterly so that long-term seasonal trends in water quality can be analysed, and the effects of changes in land use and the vulnerability of aquifers to contaminant leaching can be assessed. This chapter summarises the water quality data collected for the NGMP over the past 10 years. Some records are much shorter than others, but most are greater than three years. Additional information is

  2. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  3. Working Less and Living Longer: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets

    OpenAIRE

    Ausubel, J.H.; Grubler, A.

    1994-01-01

    Analyses of time series data beginning in the mid-nineteenth century in the industrialized nations, especially in the United Kingdom, show that on average people are working significantly less while living longer. Although the average career length has remained around 40 years, the total lifetime hours worked shrank for an average British worker from 124,000 hours in 1856 to 69,000 in 1981. The fraction of disposable lifetime hours spent working declined from 50% to 20%. The female share of c...

  4. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

  5. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bjerregaard

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  6. Effects of chopping time, meat source and storage temperature on the colour of New Zealand type fresh beef sausages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boles, J A; Mikkelsen, V L; Swan, J E

    1998-05-01

    The colour stability of finely chopped fresh sausages made from post-rigor, pre-rigor salt added (1.5% w/w) or pre-rigor no salt added beef mince was evaluated using a Hunter Miniscan (L (∗) a (∗) b (∗)) and sensory colour panel. Batters were chopped for various times and sausages stored at -1.5 °, + 4.0 ° and + 8.0 °C. Regardless of meat source or chopping time, colour stability was greatest at -1.5 °C. Panellists found the colour of all sausages stored at -1.5 °C acceptable for at least six days. Sausages made from unsalted pre-rigor mince had markedly better colour stability than those made from the other meats, especially when stored at 4 °C or 8 °C.

  7. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  8. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  9. The cardiac sonography workforce in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Steve; Poppe, Katrina; Whalley, Gillian

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Introduction: The aim of this paper is to investigate the cardiac sonography workforce characteristics and registration requirements in New Zealand (NZ), with a comparison to similar workforces internationally. Methods: The Survey of Clinical Echocardiography in New Zealand 2 (SCANZ2) audit was performed in December 2010. All of NZ's public‐funded District Health Board (DHB) centers providing echocardiography services responded to questions relating to staff, equipment, procedure types and patient statistics. The Medical Radiation Technologists Board (MRTB), Clinical Physiologists Registration Board (CPRB) and Australian Sonographers Association Registry (ASAR) websites were reviewed in March 2012 for registered sonographers with a cardiac scope of practice. The cardiac sonography workforces in Australia, the UK, the USA and Canada were investigated for comparison. Results: There are 84 cardiac sonographers (60.3 full‐time equivalent) working in DHBs: 71% from a cardiac technical background; 40% have post‐graduate qualifications; a further 17% are undertaking post‐graduate qualifications; and 59 cardiac sonographers have registration with professional bodies in NZ and/or Australia. Cardiac sonographers in NZ do not undergo compulsory registration, but other sonographers in NZ have compulsory registration with the MRTB. Sonographers are predominantly not licensed internationally. Discussion: Disparity exists between registration of cardiac and non‐cardiac sonographers in NZ. Many cardiac sonographers have voluntary registration but few are registered with the MRTB. Reasons for this include professional alignment, educational qualifications and representation. International trends show increased pressure from governments and professional bodies to regulate sonographers. Conclusion: This study provides a snapshot of the cardiac sonography workforce in NZ for the first time. PMID:28191178

  10. The Enduring Legacy of New Zealand's UNCLOS Investment (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, R.; Davy, B. W.; Herzer, R. H.; Barnes, P.; Barker, D. H.; Stagpoole, V.; Uruski, C.

    2013-12-01

    Data collected by surveys for New Zealand's extended continental shelf project have contributed to research into the tectonic history and resource potential of New Zealand. More than 20 scientific papers and a similar number of conference presentations and posters have used the data collected by these surveys. Data collected by these surveys have added significantly to national and international databases. Although the surveys were generally oriented to establish prolongation rather than to cross structural trends, the data have revealed the crustal, basement and sedimentary structure of many parts of the New Zealand region. In the area east of New Zealand, the data provide insight into the Cretaceous evolution of the New Zealand sector of Gondwana. Data collected southwest of New Zealand provided details about the relatively sudden transition from sea floor spreading between New Zealand and Australia in the Tasman Sea to orthogonal spreading in the Emerald Basin and the development of the modern Australian-Pacific plate boundary, including Late Tertiary motion on the Alpine Fault in the South Island, New Zealand. The data have been used to understand the formation of the New Caledonia Basin, the Norfolk Ridge and their associated structures, and they underpin the international collaboration between New Zealand, New Caledonia and Australia to promote resource exploration in the Tasman Sea. Data north of New Zealand have been used to understand the complex tectonic history of back arc spreading and island arc migration in the South Fiji Basin region. Seismic data collected along the axis of the New Caledonia Basin led to extensive hydrocarbon exploration surveys in the deepwater Taranaki region inside New Zealand's EEZ, and to an application for a hydrocarbon exploration licence in New Zealand's extended continental shelf.

  11. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

  12. Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  14. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  15. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  16. A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

    2004-09-15

    The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

  17. Midwifery in New Zealand 1904-1971.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojanovic, Jane

    2008-10-01

    Childbirth for European women in early twentieth century New Zealand was family centred. The majority of births took place in the home, accepted as a difficult but natural part of a woman's role in life. Midwives were mostly married women who worked autonomously and had usually borne children themselves. By the 1970s this picture had dramatically changed. Virtually all births took place in hospital and were under the control of medical men and women. When legislation was passed (the Nurses Act 1971) that removed the right of New Zealand midwives to practice autonomously, New Zealand midwifery had largely been subsumed by nursing, controlled by medicine and displaced from a community based profession into a hospital based workforce. This article examines how the trends of medicalisation, hospitalisation, and nursification changed the New Zealand maternity services from 1900 to 1971, outlining the effect those changes had on the midwifery profession. The changes described here were also common to other western societies; examining how they occurred provides a context for understanding the history of midwifery in New Zealand.

  18. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

  19. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-07-01

    The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

  20. Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

    2017-01-01

    Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

  1. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

  2. Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

  3. Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

    2015-09-01

    The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  4. Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-07-01

    Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  6. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  7. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  8. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  9. Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

    2005-07-01

    Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

  10. Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

    2012-02-01

    To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

  11. Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise `Ruaumoko'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Jan; Marzocchi, Warner; Jolly, Gill; Constantinescu, Robert; Selva, Jacopo; Sandri, Laura

    2010-03-01

    The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption

  12. Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

    2005-12-20

    Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

  13. Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    Information on trends in physical activity is very scarce in Mediterranean countries, which have the highest sedentariness in Europe. This study describes recent trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and at work in the Madrid region. The data were taken from representative annual surveys of population aged 18-64 years, between 1995-2008, 28,084 people participated. We calculated total energy, quantified in metabolic equivalent (MET-1 h per week), spent on LTPA and on light LTPA (6 MET). The annual change in LTPA was estimated by linear regression, and occupational activity by logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and educational level. The total amount of LTPA in MET-1 h per week declined by 19.8% (Pgenders, all age groups and educational levels, except for those with the lowest level of education. The adjusted annual change in MET-1 h per week was: -0.21 (Pphysical inactivity has increased in the general population (odds ratio for annual change=1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1-1.02); specially in women, young and middle aged, and intermediate educational level. There has been a decline in LTPA, mainly in light and moderate activities, accompanied by greater occupational physical inactivity. This could have contributed to the increase in obesity in the Community of Madrid between 1995-2008. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  14. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

    2016-08-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

  15. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  16. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  17. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  18. Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

  19. Analysis of the Main Factors Influencing Food Production in China Based on Time Series Trend Chart

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuangjin; WANG; Jianying; LI

    2014-01-01

    Based on the annual sample data on food production in China since the reform and opening up,we select 8 main factors influencing the total food production( growing area,application rate of chemical fertilizer,effective irrigation area,the affected area,total machinery power,food production cost index,food production price index,financial funds for supporting agriculture,farmers and countryside),and put them into categories of material input,resources and environment,and policy factors. Using the factor analysis,we carry out the multi-angle analysis of these typical influencing factors one by one through the time series trend chart. It is found that application rate of chemical fertilizer,the growing area of food crops and drought-affected area become the key factors affecting food production. On this basis,we set forth the corresponding recommendations for improving the comprehensive food production capacity.

  20. Increasing Disadvantages in Cancer Survival in New Zealand Compared to Australia, between 2000-05 and 2006-10.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Mark Elwood

    Full Text Available New Zealand has lower cancer survival compared to its neighbour Australia. If this were due to long established differences between the two patient populations, it might be expected to be either constant in time, or decreasing, as improving health services deals with inequities. In this study we compared trends in relative cancer survival ratios in New Zealand and Australia between 2000-05 and 2006-10, using data from the New Zealand Cancer Registry and the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare. Over this period, Australia showed significant improvements (6.0% in men, 3.0% in women in overall 5-year cancer survival, with substantial increases in survival from major cancer sites such as lung, bowel, prostate, and breast cancers. New Zealand had only a 1.8% increase in cancer survival in men and 1.3% in women, with non-significant changes in survival from lung and bowel cancers, although there were increases in survival from prostate and breast cancers. For all cancers combined, and for lung and bowel cancer, the improvements in survival and the greater improvements in Australia were mainly in 1-year survival, suggesting factors related to diagnosis and presentation. For breast cancer, the improvements were similar in each country and seen in survival after the first year. The findings underscore the need to accelerate the efforts to improve early diagnosis and optimum treatment for New Zealand cancer patients to catch up with the progress in Australia.

  1. New Zealand; Selected Issues

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2009-01-01

    This Selected Issues paper conducts a comparative analysis of the main determinants of GDP per capita growth in New Zealand and in other OECD countries to assess the relative importance of macroeconomic factors, institutional settings, and geographical location in New Zealand’s growth performance during the last 30 years. The estimation results find strong support for the view that geographical isolation has significantly hampered growth in New Zealand. The paper also reviews the internationa...

  2. Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

    2015-09-30

    Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

  3. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  4. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  5. Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

    2008-09-01

    Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.

  6. Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

    2017-10-01

    Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

  7. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSAN VANDALE

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

  9. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  10. Examining time trends in the Oldowan technology at Beds I and II, Olduvai Gorge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Yuki

    2002-09-01

    The lithic analysis of the Bed I and II assemblages from Olduvai Gorge reveals both static and dynamic time trends in early hominids' technology from 1.8 to 1.2 m.y.a. The Bed I Oldowan (1.87-1.75 m.y.a.) is characterized by the least effort strategy in terms of raw material exploitation and tool production. The inclusion of new raw material, chert, for toolmaking in the following Developed Oldowan A (DOA, 1.65-1.53 m.y.a.) facilitated more distinctive and variable flaking strategies depending on the kind of raw materials. The unique characters of DOA are explainable by this raw material factor, rather than technological development of hominids. The disappearance of chert in the subsequent Developed Oldowan B and Acheulian (1.53-1.2 m.y.a.) necessitated a shift in tool production strategy more similar to that of Bed I Oldowan than DOA. However, the evidence suggests that Bed II hominids might have been more skillful toolmakers, intensive tool-users, and engaged in more active transport of stone tools than the Bed I predecessors. Koobi Fora hominids maintained a more static tool-using behavior than their Olduvai counterparts due mainly to a stable supply of raw materials. They differed from Olduvai hominids in terms of less battering of cores, consistent transport behavior, and few productions of side-struck flakes, indicating a regional variation of toolmaking and using practice. However, they shared with Olduvai hominids a temporal trend toward the production of larger flakes from larger cores after 1.6 m.y.a. Increased intake of animal resources and the expansion of ranging area of Homo ergaster would have led to the development of technological organization. Technological changes in the Oldowan industry are attested at Olduvai Gorge, Koobi Fora, and Sterkfontein, suggesting that it was a pan-African synchronous phenomenon, beginning at 1.5 m.y.a.

  11. Through the sands of time: Beach litter trends from nine cleaned north cornish beaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Andrew J R; Porter, Adam; Hembrow, Neil; Sharpe, Jolyon; Galloway, Tamara S; Lewis, Ceri

    2017-09-01

    Marine litter and its accumulation on beaches is an issue of major current concern due to its significant environmental and economic impacts. Yet our understanding of spatio-temporal trends in beach litter and the drivers of these trends are currently limited by the availability of robust long term data sets. Here we present a unique data set collected systematically once a month, every month over a six year period for nine beaches along the North Coast of Cornwall, U.K. to investigate the key drivers of beach litter in the Bude, Padstow and Porthcothan areas. Overall, an average of 0.02 litter items m -2 per month were collected during the six year study, with Bude beaches (Summerleaze, Crooklets and Widemouth) the most impacted (0.03 ± 0.004 litter items m -2 per month). The amount of litter collected each month decreased by 18% and 71% respectively for Padstow (Polzeath, Trevone and Harlyn) and Bude areas over the 6 years, possibly related to the regular cleaning, however litter increased by 120% despite this monthly cleaning effort on the Padstow area beaches. Importantly, at all nine beaches the litter was dominated by small, fragmented plastic pieces and rope fibres, which account for 32% and 17% of all litter items collected, respectively. The weathered nature of these plastics indicates they have been in the marine environment for an extended period of time. So, whilst classifying the original source of these plastics is not possible, it can be concluded they are not the result of recent public littering. This data highlights both the extent of the marine litter problem and that current efforts to reduce littering by beach users will only tackle a fraction of this litter. Such information is vital for developing effective management strategies for beach and marine litter at both regional and global levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

  13. Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

  14. Graft Transit Time Has No Effect on Outcome of Unrelated Donor Hematopoietic Cell Transplants Performed in Australia and New Zealand: A Study from the Australasian Bone Marrow Transplant Recipient Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, William Nigel; Nivison-Smith, Ian; Bardy, Peter; Dodds, Anthony; Ma, David; Shaw, Peter John; Kwan, John; Wilcox, Leonie; Butler, Andrew; Carter, John M; Blacklock, Hilary; Szer, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    A previous study found that platelet recovery and mortality were worse in recipients of myeloablative bone marrow transplants where graft transit times were longer than 20 hours. This retrospective study of unrelated myeloablative allogeneic transplantation performed within Australia and New Zealand analyzed transplant outcomes according to graft transit times. Of 233 assessable cases, 76 grafts (33%) were sourced from bone marrow (BM) and 157 (67%) from peripheral blood. Grafts sourced from Australia and New Zealand (47% of total) were associated with a median transit time of 6 hours versus 32 hours for overseas sourced grafts (53% of total). Graft transit temperature was refrigerated in 85%, ambient in 6%, and unknown in 9% of cases, respectively. Graft transit times had no significant effect on neutrophil or platelet engraftment, treatment-related mortality, overall survival, and incidence of acute or chronic graft-versus-host disease. Separate analysis of BM grafts, although of reduced power, also showed no significant difference in either neutrophil or platelet engraftment or survival between short and longer transport times. This study gives reassurance that both peripheral blood stem cell and especially BM grafts subjected to long transit times and transported at refrigerated temperatures may not be associated with adverse recipient outcomes. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  16. Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

    2017-01-01

    Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

  17. [Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

    2015-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

  18. Health promotion funding, workforce recruitment and turnover in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovell, Sarah A; Egan, Richard; Robertson, Lindsay; Hicks, Karen

    2015-06-01

    Almost a decade on from the New Zealand Primary Health Care Strategy and amidst concerns about funding of health promotion, we undertook a nationwide survey of health promotion providers. To identify trends in recruitment and turnover in New Zealand's health promotion workforce. Surveys were sent to 160 organisations identified as having a health focus and employing one or more health promoter. Respondents, primarily health promotion managers, were asked to report budget, retention and hiring data for 1 July 2009 through 1 July 2010. Responses were received from 53% of organisations. Among respondents, government funding for health promotion declined by 6.3% in the year ended July 2010 and health promoter positions decreased by 7.5% (equalling 36.6 full-time equivalent positions). Among staff who left their roles, 79% also left the field of health promotion. Forty-two organisations (52%) reported employing health promoters on time-limited contracts of three years or less; this employment arrangement was particularly common in public health units (80%) and primary health organisations (57%). Among new hires, 46% (n=55) were identified as Maori. Low retention of health promoters may reflect the common use of limited-term employment contracts, which allow employers to alter staffing levels as funding changes. More than half the surveyed primary health organisations reported using fixed-term employment contracts. This may compromise health promotion understanding, culture and institutional memory in these organisations. New Zealand's commitment to addressing ethnic inequalities in health outcomes was evident in the high proportion of Maori who made up new hires.

  19. River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

  20. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Aguas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge

    2013-04-01

    Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) in 2001-03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9-7.2) in 2003-05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8-4.8) in 2005-07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1-2.2) in 2007-09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3-0.9) in 2009-12 [OR=0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86); P<0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains.

  1. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  2. Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

  3. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  4. Doctors' enjoyment of their work and satisfaction with time available for leisure: UK time trend questionnaire-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surman, Geraldine; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Doctors' job satisfaction is important to the health service to ensure commitment, effective training, service provision and retention. Job satisfaction matters to doctors for their personal happiness, fulfilment, service to patients and duty to employers. Monitoring job satisfaction trends informs workforce planning. We surveyed UK-trained doctors up to 5 years after graduation for six graduation year cohorts: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012. Doctors scored their job enjoyment (Enjoyment) and satisfaction with time outside work (Leisure) on a scale from 1 (lowest enjoyment/satisfaction) to 10 (highest). Overall, 47% had a high level of Enjoyment (scores 8-10) 1 year after graduation and 56% after 5 years. For Leisure, the corresponding figures were 19% and 37% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. For Leisure at 1 year, high scores were given by about 10% in the 1990s, rising to about 25% in the mid-2000s. Low scores (1-3) for Enjoyment were given by 15% of qualifiers of 1996, falling to 5% by 2008; corresponding figures for Leisure were 42% and 19%. At 5 years, the corresponding figures were 6% and 4%, and 23% and 17%. Enjoyment and Leisure were scored higher by general practitioners than doctors in other specialties. Both measures varied little by sex, ethnicity or medical school attended. Scores for Enjoyment were generally high; those for Leisure were lower. Policy initiatives should address why this aspect of satisfaction is low, particularly in the first year after graduation but also among hospital doctors 5 years after graduation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  5. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Christian; Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe; de Koeijer, Aline; Sheridan, Hazel; Saegerman, Claude; Selhorst, Thomas; Arnold, Mark; Polak, Miroslaw P; Calavas, Didier

    2010-06-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

  6. Different time trend and management of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma in three Asian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatta, Waku; Tong, Daniel; Lee, Yeong Yeh; Ichihara, Shin; Uedo, Noriya; Gotoda, Takuji

    2017-04-01

    Esophagogastric junction (EGJ) adenocarcinoma has been on the increase in Western countries. However, in Asian countries, data on the incidence of EGJ adenocarcinoma are evidently lacking. In the present review, we focus on the current clinical situation of EGJ adenocarcinoma in three Asian countries: Japan, Hong Kong, and Malaysia. The incidence of EGJ adenocarcinoma has been reported to be gradually increasing in Malaysia and Japan, whereas it has stabilized in Hong Kong. However, the number of cases in these countries is comparatively low compared with Western countries. A reason for the reported difference in the incidence and time trend of EGJ adenocarcinoma among the three countries may be explained by two distinct etiologies: one arising from chronic gastritis similar to distal gastric cancer, and the other related to gastroesophageal reflux disease similar to esophageal adenocarcinoma including Barrett's adenocarcinoma. This review also shows that there are several concerns in clinical practice for EGJ adenocarcinoma. In Hong Kong and Malaysia, many EGJ adenocarcinomas have been detected at a stage not amenable to endoscopic resection. In Japan, histological curability criteria for endoscopic resection cases have not been established. We suggest that an international collaborative study using the same definition of EGJ adenocarcinoma may be helpful not only for clarifying the characteristics of these cancers but also for improving the clinical outcome of these patients. © 2017 The Authors. Digestive Endoscopy © 2017 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

  7. Incidence, time trends and regional variation of childhood leukaemia in Germany and Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaatsch, P.; Mergenthaler, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents data on the German and Europe-wide incidence, time trends and regional variations of childhood leukaemia. Data were provided by the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR), a population-based cancer registry recording all cases of malignant diseases in children under 15 y of age residing in Germany and by the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) co-ordinated at International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, that combines and evaluates data from several European population-based cancer registries. The incidence of leukaemia (44.0 per million) has increased in Europe as well as in Germany in the last decades (0.6% annually on average). Germany shows no systematic aggregation of regions with low or high cancer incidence in terms of regional clustering. Incidence rates differ between European regions with the highest rates in Northern Europe (48.0 per million) and the lowest rates in Eastern Europe (39.1). Altogether, the results from ACCIS and the GCCR show good agreement. (authors)

  8. Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

    2008-03-01

    The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

  9. Mapping Mountain Pine Beetle Mortality through Growth Trend Analysis of Time-Series Landsat Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Disturbances are key processes in the carbon cycle of forests and other ecosystems. In recent decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks have become more frequent and extensive in western North America. Remote sensing has the ability to fill the data gaps of long-term infestation monitoring, but the elimination of observational noise and attributing changes quantitatively are two main challenges in its effective application. Here, we present a forest growth trend analysis method that integrates Landsat temporal trajectories and decision tree techniques to derive annual forest disturbance maps over an 11-year period. The temporal trajectory component successfully captures the disturbance events as represented by spectral segments, whereas decision tree modeling efficiently recognizes and attributes events based upon the characteristics of the segments. Validated against a point set sampled across a gradient of MPB mortality, 86.74% to 94.00% overall accuracy was achieved with small variability in accuracy among years. In contrast, the overall accuracies of single-date classifications ranged from 37.20% to 75.20% and only become comparable with our approach when the training sample size was increased at least four-fold. This demonstrates that the advantages of this time series work flow exist in its small training sample size requirement. The easily understandable, interpretable and modifiable characteristics of our approach suggest that it could be applicable to other ecoregions.

  10. Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bidoli Ettore

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

  11. Through the sands of time: Beach litter trends from nine cleaned north cornish beaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watts, Andrew J.R.; Porter, Adam; Hembrow, Neil; Sharpe, Jolyon; Galloway, Tamara S.; Lewis, Ceri

    2017-01-01

    Marine litter and its accumulation on beaches is an issue of major current concern due to its significant environmental and economic impacts. Yet our understanding of spatio-temporal trends in beach litter and the drivers of these trends are currently limited by the availability of robust long term data sets. Here we present a unique data set collected systematically once a month, every month over a six year period for nine beaches along the North Coast of Cornwall, U.K. to investigate the key drivers of beach litter in the Bude, Padstow and Porthcothan areas. Overall, an average of 0.02 litter items m −2 per month were collected during the six year study, with Bude beaches (Summerleaze, Crooklets and Widemouth) the most impacted (0.03 ± 0.004 litter items m −2 per month). The amount of litter collected each month decreased by 18% and 71% respectively for Padstow (Polzeath, Trevone and Harlyn) and Bude areas over the 6 years, possibly related to the regular cleaning, however litter increased by 120% despite this monthly cleaning effort on the Padstow area beaches. Importantly, at all nine beaches the litter was dominated by small, fragmented plastic pieces and rope fibres, which account for 32% and 17% of all litter items collected, respectively. The weathered nature of these plastics indicates they have been in the marine environment for an extended period of time. So, whilst classifying the original source of these plastics is not possible, it can be concluded they are not the result of recent public littering. This data highlights both the extent of the marine litter problem and that current efforts to reduce littering by beach users will only tackle a fraction of this litter. Such information is vital for developing effective management strategies for beach and marine litter at both regional and global levels. - Highlights: • Unique and systemically collected beach clean data set from 9 beaches over 6 years. • The most abundant litter items were

  12. Time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Sau Mei; Mok, Chi Chiu

    2017-06-01

    Objectives The objective of this paper is to study the time trend and risk factors of avascular bone necrosis (AVN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Between 1999 and 2014, patients who fulfilled the ACR criteria for SLE and developed symptomatic AVN were identified from our cohort database and compared with those without AVN, matched for age, sex and SLE duration. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of AVN in different SLE age groups were calculated from data derived from our hospital registry and population census. Risk factors for AVN were studied by logistic regression, adjusted by a propensity score for ever use of high-dose glucocorticoids (GCs). Results Fifty-five SLE patients with AVN and 220 SLE patients without AVN were studied. There were 104 AVN sites involved, with the hips being most commonly affected (82%). The point prevalence of AVN in our SLE cohort was 7.4%. The SIRs of AVN in our SLE patients were 131 (86.6-199; p < 0.001) and 56.0 (34.3-91.4; p < 0.001), respectively, in the periods 1995-2004 and 2005-2014. In both decades, the age-stratified SIR was highest in the youngest age group (<19 years). AVN patients were more likely to be treated with GCs and had received a significantly higher cumulative dose of prednisolone since SLE diagnosis (16.5 vs 10.7 grams; p = 0.001). The SLE damage score (excluding AVN) was also significantly higher in AVN than non-AVN patients (2.5 vs 0.4; p < 0.001). Logistic regression revealed that preceding septic arthritis of the involved joint (odds ratio (OR) 17.7 (1.5-205); p = 0.02), cushingoid body habitus (OR 2.4 (1.1-5.2); p = 0.04), LDL cholesterol level (OR 1.4 (1.0-1.9); p = 0.04), maximum daily dose of prednisolone (OR 6.4 (1.2-33.3); p = 0.03) and cumulative dose of prednisolone received in the first six months of the first lupus flare (OR 1.3 (1.0-1.8); p = 0.046) were independently associated with AVN. Conclusions AVN is prevalent in SLE

  13. Time trends in organ donation after neurologic determination of death: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andreas H.; Baht, Ryan; Doig, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The cause of brain injury may influence the number of organs that can be procured and transplanted with donation following neurologic determination of death. We investigated whether the distribution of causes responsible for neurologic death has changed over time and, if so, whether this has had an impact on organ quality, transplantation rates and recipient outcomes. Methods: We performed a cohort study involving consecutive brain-dead organ donors in southern Alberta between 2003 and 2014. For each donor, we determined last available measures of organ injury and number of organs transplanted, and compared these variables for various causes of neurologic death. We compared trends to national Canadian data for 2000-2013 (2000-2011 for Quebec). Results: There were 226 brain-dead organ donors over the study period, of whom 100 (44.2%) had anoxic brain injury, 63 (27.9%) had stroke, and 51 (22.6%) had traumatic brain injury. The relative proportion of donors with traumatic brain injury decreased over time (> 30% in 2003-2005 v. 6%-23% in 2012-2014) (p = 0.004), whereas that with anoxic brain injury increased (14%-37% v. 46%-80%, respectively) (p organs transplanted per donor was 3.6 with anoxic brain injury versus 4.5 with traumatic brain injury or stroke (p = 0.002). Interpretation: Anoxic brain injury has become a leading cause of organ donation after neurologic determination of death in Canada. Organs from donors with anoxic brain injury have a greater degree of injury, and fewer are transplanted. These findings have implications for availability of organs for transplantation in patients with end-stage organ failure. PMID:28401114

  14. Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

  15. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

  16. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Águas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge; Mansinho, Kamal; Cláudia Miranda, Ana; Aldir, Isabel; Ventura, Fernando; Nina, Jaime; Borges, Fernando; Valadas, Emília; Doroana, Manuela; Antunes, Francisco; João Aleixo, Maria; João Águas, Maria; Botas, Júlio; Branco, Teresa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês; Poças, José; Sá, Joana; Duque, Luis; Diniz, António; Mineiro, Ana; Gomes, Flora; Santos, Carlos; Faria, Domitília; Fonseca, Paula; Proença, Paula; Tavares, Luís; Guerreiro, Cristina; Narciso, Jorge; Faria, Telo; Teófilo, Eugénio; Pinheiro, Sofia; Germano, Isabel; Caixas, Umbelina; Faria, Nancy; Paula Reis, Ana; Bentes Jesus, Margarida; Amaro, Graça; Roxo, Fausto; Abreu, Ricardo; Neves, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. Patients and methods We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) in 2001–03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9–7.2) in 2003–05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8–4.8) in 2005–07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1–2.2) in 2007–09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9) in 2009–12 [OR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86); P < 0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. Conclusions The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains. PMID:23228933

  17. Measuring trends in poverty over time - some robust results for Ireland 1980-87

    OpenAIRE

    Nolan, B; Callan, T

    1989-01-01

    The trend in poverty in Ireland between 1980 and 1987 is analysed, using the 1980 Household Budget Survey and the ESRI 1987 Survey of Income, Distribution, Poverty and Usage of State Services. In addition to the number falling below poverty thresholds, more sophisticated aggregate poverty measures are derived, taking into account the extent to which the poor fall below the poverty line and the distribution of income among the poor. Results for the trend in poverty which are robust over a rang...

  18. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  19. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

  20. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  1. Out-of-pocket expenditures for primary health care in Tajikistan: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Joëlle; Wyss, Kaspar; Gulyamova, Zulfiya M; Sharipov, Soleh

    2013-03-18

    Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially

  2. Time Trends in Murray's Psychogenic Needs over Three Decades in Swedish 75-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billstedt, Eva; Waern, Margda; Falk, Hanna; Duberstein, Paul; Östling, Svante; Hällström, Tore; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-01-01

    While time trends in personality traits have been suggested in younger cohorts, little is known regarding this issue in older adults. To test for birth cohort changes in psychogenic needs according to Murray's theory of personality in two birth cohorts of 75-year-olds born 1901-1902 and 1930. Two population-based birth cohorts were examined at the age of 75 years in 1976-1977 and in 2005-2006. Psychogenic needs according to Murray were measured with the Cesarec-Marke Personality Schedule (CMPS), a Swedish version of the Edwards Personal Preference Schedule. Scores on the CMPS subscales (achievement, affiliation, aggression, defence of status, guilt feelings, dominance, exhibition, autonomy, nurturance, order, succorance, and acquiescence) were compared between cohorts. Achievement, exhibition, dominance, aggression, affiliation, and succorance scores were higher, and order and acquiescence scores lower, in the more recent birth cohort of 75-year-olds. Women scored lower than men on exhibition and dominance, and higher on defence of status, guilt feelings, affiliation, nurturance, and succorance. Interaction effects between cohort and sex were found for achievement (women scored lower than men in 1976-1977 but not in 2005-2006), order (the lower scores in 2005-2006 were more accentuated among men), and acquiescence (increased in men and decreased in women). The later-born birth cohort scored higher on self-centred traits, such as more dominant, competitive, and exhibitive traits as well as the need to be taken care of and have friends around, but it scored lower on the need for order. The gap between men and women regarding achievement decreased, possibly reflecting women's more prominent role in society. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. Time Trends and Policy Gaps: The Case of Alcohol Misuse Among Adolescents in Lebanon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghandour, Lilian; Afifi, Rima; Fares, Sonia; El Salibi, Noura; Rady, Alissar

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring studies are crucial for informing and reforming local policies. Using the Lebanon 2005 and 2011 Global School-based Student Health Surveys (GSHS), alcohol time trends were described, policy gaps were identified, and harm reduction policy recommendations were made. In 2005 and 2011, 100 (n = 5109 students) and 44 (n = 2784 students) middle schools were surveyed, respectively. Self-reported cross-sectional data on alcohol use among 7-9th graders in private and public schools was collected including 30-day prevalence, lifetime drunkenness, alcohol-related problems, and sources of alcohol. In 2011, the majority (87%) had alcohol before turning 14. Between 2005 and 2011, past 30-day alcohol use had increased by 40% and lifetime drunkenness by 50% in the total sample (122% among females with a narrowing in the gender gap). Drinking was regular for more than a third of the past 30-day drinkers (drank two or more drinks on the days they drank). Male adolescents were more likely to obtain alcohol from "stores" or "through their friends" whereas females' main source was their "family." One in twenty reported experiencing alcohol-related problems (e.g., getting into fights with family/friends and skipping school). Conclusion/Importance: Evidence-informed policy implications include enforcing a minimum legal drinking age, regulating alcohol advertising, and marketing particularly those targeting youth and women, and ensuring the availability of youth-friendly services. Public messages to increase awareness among all stakeholders including youth, their parents, and larger community are also needed.

  4. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  5. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  6. Strategically Timed Preventive Education and Media Strategies Reduce Seasonal Trends in Adolescent Conception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauster, A; Waddington, A; Jamieson, M A

    2015-08-01

    This study sought to analyze the effect of strategically timed local preventive education on reducing teen conception rates during known seasonal peaks in March and April. All teen conceptions (age ≤ 19) from March and April 2010, 2011, and 2012 were identified using medical records data. Teen conceptions occurring in January 2010, 2011, and 2012 were also identified to control for any new trends in the community. A city of 160,000 with 1 tertiary care centre. Pregnant adolescents (age ≤ 19). During the month of February 2012, preventive education and media awareness strategies were aimed at parents, teachers, and teens. Adolescent conceptions in March and April 2012. Conception rates in teens ≤18 years old were significantly reduced in March and April 2012 compared to March and April 2010 and 2011 (RR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.32 - 0.88, P = .0132). There was an increase in conceptions in March and April 2012 compared to 2010 and 2011 among 19-year-olds (RR = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.84-2.9, P = .1500). Effect modification revealed our ≤18-year-old group and our 19-year-old group were distinct groups with different risk estimates (P = .0075). Educational sessions were poorly attended and contraception clinic volume was static. We propose increased parental supervision in response to media reminders as a possible explanation for the reduction in adolescent conceptions (≤18 years old) seen in March 2012. Copyright © 2015 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  8. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  9. Resistance patterns among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai: trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Alpa; Pawaskar, Akshay; Das, Mrinalini; Desai, Ranjan; Prabhudesai, Pralhad; Chhajed, Prashant; Rajan, Sujeet; Reddy, Deepesh; Babu, Sajit; Jayalakshmi, T K; Saranchuk, Peter; Rodrigues, Camilla; Isaakidis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    While the high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) itself is a matter of great concern, the emergence and rise of advanced forms of drug-resistance such as extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and extremely drug-resistant TB (XXDR-TB) is more troubling. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends over time of patterns of drug resistance in a sample of MDR-TB patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai, India. This was a retrospective, observational study of drug susceptibility testing (DST) results among MDR-TB patients from eight health care facilities in greater Mumbai between 2005 and 2013. We classified resistance patterns into four categories: MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB, XDR-TB and XXDR-TB. A total of 340 MDR-TB patients were included in the study. Pre-XDR-TB was the most common form of drug-resistant TB observed overall in this Mumbai population at 56.8% compared to 29.4% for MDR-TB. The proportion of patients with MDR-TB was 39.4% in the period 2005-2007 and 27.8% in 2011-2013, while the proportion of those with XDR-TB and XXDR-TB was changed from 6.1% and 0% respectively to 10.6% and 5.6% during the same time period. During the same periods, the proportions of patients with ofloxacin, moxifloxacin and ethionamide resistance significantly increased from 57.6% to 75.3%, from 60.0% to 69.5% and from 24.2% to 52.5% respectively (pMumbai highlight the need for individualized drug regimens, designed on the basis of DST results involving first- and second-line anti-TB drugs and treatment history of the patient. A drug-resistant TB case-finding strategy based on molecular techniques that identify only rifampicin resistance will lead to initiation of suboptimal treatment regimens for a significant number of patients, which may in turn contribute to amplification of resistance and transmission of strains with increasingly advanced resistance within the community.

  10. A quick look over the neighbour's fence: New Zealand and Australia compared

    OpenAIRE

    Anne-Marie Brook

    1998-01-01

    This article surveys some of the main economic trends in New Zealand and Australia over the 1990s, with particular emphasis on those aspects relevant to the Reserve Bank: inflation pressures, the business cycle, and monetary conditions and policy.

  11. Ten Ideas Worth Stealing from New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarchow, Elaine

    1992-01-01

    New Zealand educators have some ideas worth stealing, including morning tea-time, the lie-flat manifold duplicate book for recording classroom observation comments, school uniforms, collegial planning and grading of college assignments, good meeting etiquette, a whole-child orientation, portable primary architecture, group employment interviews…

  12. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S L; Henderson, S C; Tritz, T G [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  13. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  14. Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

    2017-12-01

    To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

  15. The impact of reduced working hours on surgical training in Australia and New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, Ian R

    2011-01-01

    There is a worldwide trend for reduced working hours for doctors, particularly in the developed western countries. This has been led by the introduction of the European Working Time Directive (EWTD) that has had a significant impact on work patterns and training. Australia currently has a more flexible working environment but this is changing. In New Zealand there is a contract for resident doctors defining a maximum 72 h of rostered work per week. Copyright © 2010 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  17. Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

    OpenAIRE

    Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  18. Marine biodiversity of Aotearoa New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Dennis P; Beaumont, Jennifer; MacDiarmid, Alison; Robertson, Donald A; Ahyong, Shane T

    2010-08-02

    The marine-biodiversity assessment of New Zealand (Aotearoa as known to Māori) is confined to the 200 nautical-mile boundary of the Exclusive Economic Zone, which, at 4.2 million km(2), is one of the largest in the world. It spans 30 degrees of latitude and includes a high diversity of seafloor relief, including a trench 10 km deep. Much of this region remains unexplored biologically, especially the 50% of the EEZ deeper than 2,000 m. Knowledge of the marine biota is based on more than 200 years of marine exploration in the region. The major oceanographic data repository is the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), which is involved in several Census of Marine Life field projects and is the location of the Southwestern Pacific Regional OBIS Node; NIWA is also data manager and custodian for fisheries research data owned by the Ministry of Fisheries. Related data sources cover alien species, environmental measures, and historical information. Museum collections in New Zealand hold more than 800,000 registered lots representing several million specimens. During the past decade, 220 taxonomic specialists (85 marine) from 18 countries have been engaged in a project to review New Zealand's entire biodiversity. The above-mentioned marine information sources, published literature, and reports were scrutinized to give the results summarized here for the first time (current to 2010), including data on endemism and invasive species. There are 17,135 living species in the EEZ. This diversity includes 4,315 known undescribed species in collections. Species diversity for the most intensively studied phylum-level taxa (Porifera, Cnidaria, Mollusca, Brachiopoda, Bryozoa, Kinorhyncha, Echinodermata, Chordata) is more or less equivalent to that in the ERMS (European Register of Marine Species) region, which is 5.5 times larger in area than the New Zealand EEZ. The implication is that, when all other New Zealand phyla are equally well studied, total marine

  19. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  20. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong

  1. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  2. The State of Accounting Education Scholarship in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Ralph

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines publishing trends of New Zealand accounting education scholars over the 20-year period 1991-2010. Longitudinal analyses of the annual number of publications, research theme studied, researcher productivity, and institutional productivity, along with cross-sectional analyses of authors' Hirsch "h"-index scores, the…

  3. Australia and New Zealand Applied Linguistics (ANZAL): Taking Stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinsasser, Robert C.

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews some emerging trends in applied linguistics in both Australia and New Zealand. It sketches the current scene of (selected) postgraduate applied linguistics programs in higher education and considers how various university programs define applied linguistics through the classes (titles) they have postgraduate students complete to…

  4. New Zealand's boiling kettles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minkowski, H

    1955-04-01

    The Wairakei Valley is covered with mud pots, geysers, and steam vents. Aggressive exploitation of the geothermal resources in this area is underway. The geothermal development experience gained in Italy, where the soil is cold and compact, cannot be applied in New Zealand, as the soil is hot and the rock is porous. Drilling in New Zealand must be accompanied by a constant input of cooling emulsion. Special techniques have been developed for cementing the high-temperature boreholes. Test drillings have been made as deep as 1000 m and pressures on the order of 30 kg/cm/sup 2/ have been encountered. As even higher pressures are expected, valves have been designed to support up to 70 kg/cm/sup 2/. A 70 MW pilot-plant, supplied by 27 wells, was expected to be on-line in 1955.

  5. Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Roniger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

  6. Time trends for injuries and illness, and their relation to performance in the National Basketball Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podlog, Leslie; Buhler, Craig F; Pollack, Harvey; Hopkins, Paul N; Burgess, Paul R

    2015-05-01

    To survey injury/illness in the National Basketball Association over a 25-year period and examine the relationship of injury/illness to team performance. A retrospective correlational design. Trends were examined in reported numbers of players injured/ill during a season and games missed due to injury/illness from seasons ending in 1986 through 2005. This period was compared to years 2006-2010, when NBA teams were allowed to increase the total number of players on the team from 12 to 15. There was a highly significant trend (pBasketball Association up until the expansion of team size in 2006. Following 2006, team expansion was positively associated with decreased injury/illness rates. The latter finding suggests the importance of maintaining a healthy roster with respect to winning outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  8. National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

    2017-07-01

    Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  9. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  10. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  11. Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López-Abente Gonzalo

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

  12. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  13. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  14. Suicide epidemics: the impact of newly emerging methods on overall suicide rates - a time trends study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Shu-Sen

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The impact of newly emerging, popular suicide methods on overall rates of suicide has not previously been investigated systematically. Understanding these effects may have important implications for public health surveillance. We examine the emergence of three novel methods of suicide by gassing in the 20th and 21st centuries and determine the impact of emerging methods on overall suicide rates. Methods We studied the epidemic rises in domestic coal gas (1919-1935, England and Wales, motor vehicle exhaust gas (1975-1992, England and Wales and barbecue charcoal gas (1999-2006, Taiwan suicide using Poisson and joinpoint regression models. Joinpoint regression uses contiguous linear segments and join points (points at which trends change to describe trends in incidence. Results Epidemic increases in the use of new methods of suicide were generally associated with rises in overall suicide rates of between 23% and 71%. The recent epidemic of barbecue charcoal suicides in Taiwan was associated with the largest rise in overall rates (40-50% annual rise, whereas the smallest rise was seen for car exhaust gassing in England and Wales (7% annual rise. Joinpoint analyses were only feasible for car exhaust and charcoal burning suicides; these suggested an impact of the emergence of car exhaust suicides on overall suicide rates in both sexes in England and Wales. However there was no statistical evidence of a change in the already increasing overall suicide trends when charcoal burning suicides emerged in Taiwan, possibly due to the concurrent economic recession. Conclusions Rapid rises in the use of new sources of gas for suicide were generally associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Suicide prevention strategies should include strengthening local and national surveillance for early detection of novel suicide methods and implementation of effective media guidelines and other appropriate interventions to limit the spread of

  15. Educational Inequalities in Obesity among Mexican Women: Time-Trends from 1988 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A.; Brunner, Eric J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Methods Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Results Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pObesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988–2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. Conclusions The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys. PMID:24599098

  16. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

    2008-01-01

    to 1969 who attended primary school in the Copenhagen Municipality. 135,223 girls and 21,612 boys fulfilled the criteria for determining age at OGS and age at PHV. These physiological events were used as markers of pubertal development in our computerized method in order to evaluate any secular trends...... in pubertal maturation during the study period (year of birth 1930 to 1969). In this period, age at OGS declined statistically significantly by 0.2 and 0.4 years in girls and boys, respectively, whereas age at PHV declined statistically significantly by 0.5 and 0.3 years in girls and boys, respectively...

  17. Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

    2015-01-01

    To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

  18. Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Anita; Mark, Michael Thomas; Steiner, Annik; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

    2015-01-01

    What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

  19. Time trend of clinical cases of Lyme disease in two hospitals in Belgium, 2000-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Keukeleire, Mathilde; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Kabamba, Benoît; Belkhir, Leila; Pierre, Philippe; Luyasu, Victor; Robert, Annie

    2017-12-05

    As several studies indicated an increase in Lyme disease (LD), notably in neighbouring countries, concerns have arisen regarding the evolution of Lyme disease in Belgium. In order to confirm or infirm the increase of LD in Belgium, we focused on hospital admissions of patients diagnosed with LD between 2000 and 2013 based on hospital admission databases from two hospitals in Belgium. Hospital databases are a stable recording system. We did a retrospective analysis of the medical files of patients hospitalized with Lyme disease in two Belgian hospitals between 2000 and 2013. The annual number of cases of LD for the two studied Belgian hospitals remained stable between 2000 and 2013, ranging from 1 for the Cliniques universitaires Saint-Luc to 15 for the the Clinique Saint-Pierre. No increasing trend were noted in the estimated annual incidence rate but the average estimated annual incidence rate was higher for the hospital Saint-Pierre (8.1 ± 3.7 per 100,000 inhabitants) than Saint-Luc (2.2 ± 1.5 per 100,000 inhabitants). The number of hospital cases of LD peaked between June and November. Based on hospital admissions with LD, no increasing trend was observed for the period 2000-2013 in the two studied Belgian hospitals. This is in line with other studies carried out in Belgium.

  20. Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

    2009-04-01

    The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

  1. The North Zealand CAP Monitor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Minna; Ravn, Pernille; Notander Clausen, Lise

    with CAP. We started with 34 audit variables. Through repeated cycles of testing, feedback and discussions, we reduced the number of indicators to 22 and time per audit from 20 to 10 minutes. Strategy for change To link the monitoring system with our patient pathway for CAP we established an improvement...... Designing a database Designing and testing a dashboard to present indicators in a balanced way Messages for others Auditing patients with a common disease as CAP is useful to identify areas for improvement for a large group of patients. The baseline audit can serve as a basis for a monitoring system......Contect We describe how we developed a monitoring system for community acquired pneumonia (CAP) at North Zealand Regional hospital. We serve 310.000 inhabitants and annually around 3200 patients with CAP are admitted. As part of a program of clinical pathways for common conditions, a pathway...

  2. Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

    2016-09-01

    Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

    2014-01-21

    Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

  4. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    Full Text Available Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data.Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI z-score.Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China.The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively.FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75.FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  5. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hong; Wu, Yang; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6-18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13-17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004-2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity.

  6. Time Trends in Fast Food Consumption and Its Association with Obesity among Children in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Youfa

    2016-01-01

    Objective Study the trends in Western fast food consumption (FFC) among Chinese school-age children and the association between FFC and obesity using nationwide survey data. Design Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study the trends in FFC and the associations between FFC and weight status (overweight, obesity and body mass index (BMI) z-score). Setting Longitudinal data from families were collected in the 2004 and 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (covering nine provinces throughout China). Subjects The analysis included 2656 Chinese children aged 6 to 18 years (1542 and 1114 children in the 2004 and 2009 survey, respectively). Results FFC (reported having consumed Western fast food in the past three months) has increased between 2004 and 2009, from 18.5% to 23.9% in those aged 6–18, and increased more rapidly among those aged 13–17, from 17.9% to 26.3%. The increase was significant in almost all groups by age, sex, family income, and residence. Our cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses did not detect a significant association between FFC and obesity/overweight or BMI z-score (e.g., for BMI z-score, boys: β = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.71, 0.75; girls: β = -0.14, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.75). Conclusions FFC has increased in Chinese school-age children, especially in older children, boys, and those from low- and medium-income families, rural areas, and East China, but decreased among those from high-income families during 2004–2009. The data did not show a significant association between FFC and obesity. PMID:26974536

  7. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. The place of public inquiries in shaping New Zealand's national mental health policy 1858-1996.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunton, Warwick

    2005-10-10

    This paper discusses the role of public inquiries as an instrument of public policy-making in New Zealand, using mental health as a case study. The main part of the paper analyses the processes and outcomes of five general inquiries into the state of New Zealand's mental health services that were held between 1858 and 1996. The membership, form, style and processes used by public inquiries have all changed over time in line with constitutional and social trends. So has the extent of public participation. The records of five inquiries provide periodic snapshots of a system bedevilled by long-standing problems such as unacceptable standards, under-resourcing, and poor co-ordination. Demands for an investigation no less than the reports and recommendations of public inquiries have been the catalyst of some important policy changes, if not immediately, then by creating a climate of opinion that supported later change. Inquiries played a significant role in establishing lunatic asylums, in shaping the structure of mental health legislation, establishing and maintaining a national mental health bureaucracy within the machinery of government, and in paving the way for deinstitutionalisation. Ministers and their departmental advisers have mediated this contribution. Public inquiries have helped shape New Zealand's mental health policy, both directly and indirectly, at different stages of evolution. In both its advisory and investigative forms, the public inquiry remains an important tool of public administration. The inquiry/cause and policy/effect relationship is not necessarily immediate but may facilitate changes in public opinion with corresponding policy outcomes long after any direct causal link could be determined. When considered from that long-term perspective, the five inquiries can be linked to several significant and long-term contributions to mental health policy in New Zealand.

  9. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

  10. Ethnic differences in the time trend of female breast cancer incidence: Singapore, 1968 – 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chuen-Seng

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From 1968 to 2002, Singapore experienced an almost three-fold increase in breast cancer incidence. This increase appeared to be different across the three main ethnic groups: Chinese, Malays and Indians. This paper used age-period-cohort (APC modelling, to determine the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on breast cancer incidence for each ethnic group. Methods This study included all breast cancer cases (n = 15,269 in the three ethnic groups, reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968 to 2002 between the ages 25 to 79. Age-specific fertility rates from the Department of Statistics were used to explore the role of fertility. Results In the 1970s, Indian women had the highest age-standardized breast cancer but by the mid-1980s the highest rates were seen among the Chinese. Remarkable differences were seen in the age-specific incidence rates by ethnic groups. After age 49, the incidence rates for the Chinese and Malays leveled off whereas it continued to rise in the Indians. While our analyses provided some evidence that an age-drift model described the trend seen in the Indians, age-period-cohort model and age-cohort model had the best fit for the Chinese and Malays aged 25 to 79 respectively. Overall, Chinese and Malay women born in later cohorts were at increased risk of developing breast cancer relative to their counterparts in the earlier cohorts. The three ethnic groups experienced similar changes in their fertility in the 1970s, which likely explained much of the increase in their breast cancer incidence but not the ethnic differences. There was a stronger inverse association between total fertility rate and pre-menopausal breast cancer incidence in the Chinese and Malays than the Indians. Conclusion The observed dissimilarity among ethnic groups suggests ethnic differences in exposure or response to certain risk factors. It is likely that longer and subtler differences in

  11. Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Woelfle

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

  12. Time trends and occupational variation in the incidence of testicular cancer in the Nordic countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylönen, Outi; Jyrkkiö, Sirkku; Pukkala, Eero; Syvänen, Kari; Boström, Peter J

    2018-02-20

    To describe the trends and occupational variation in the incidence of testicular cancer in the Nordic countries utilising national cancer registries, NORDCAN (NORDCAN project/database presents the incidence, mortality, prevalence and survival from >50 cancers in the Nordic countries) and NOCCA (Nordic Occupational Cancer) databases. We obtained the incidence data of testicular cancer for 5-year periods from 1960-1964 to 2000-2014 and for 5-year age-groups from the NORDCAN database. Morphological data on incident cases of seminoma and non-seminoma were obtained from national cancer registries. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were calculated per 100 000 person-years (World Standard). Regression analysis was used to evaluate the annual change in the incidence of testicular cancer in each of the Nordic countries. The risk of testicular cancer in different professions was described based on NOCCA information and expressed as standardised incidence ratios (SIRs). During 2010-2014 the ASR for testicular cancer varied from 11.3 in Norway to 5.8 in Finland. Until 1998, the incidence was highest in Denmark. There has not been an increase in Denmark and Iceland since the 1990s, whilst the incidence is still strongly increasing in Norway, Sweden, and Finland. There were no remarkable changes in the ratio of seminoma and non-seminoma incidences during the past 50 years. There was no increase in the incidences in children and those of pension age. The highest significant excess risks of testicular seminoma were found in physicians (SIR 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.99), artistic workers (SIR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-1.99) and religious workers etc. (SIR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14-1.56). The lowest SIRs of testicular seminoma were seen amongst cooks and stewards (SIR 0.56, 95% CI 0.29-0.98), and forestry workers (SIR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.86). The occupational category of administrators was the only one with a significantly elevated SIR for testicular non-seminoma (SIR 1.21, 95

  13. Patterns of glucose lowering drugs utilization in Portugal and in the Netherlands. Trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre, Carla; Guerreiro, José; de Oliveira Martins, Sofia; Raposo, João Filipe; Martins, Ana Paula; Leufkens, Hubert

    2015-12-01

    To compare the temporal trends in the consumption patterns of glucose lowering drugs (GLD) between Portugal and the Netherlands from 2004 to 2013 and to examine possible reasons behind the cross-national variation found. All GLD (ATC pharmacological subgroup A10B) were selected for analysis. Consumption data were obtained for the 10-year period. Portuguese and Dutch drug estimates were obtained from nationwide databases. The consumption of GLD increased in Portugal from 52.9 defined daily dose per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) in 2004 to 70.0 DHD in 2013 and in the Netherlands from 44.9 DHD in 2004 to 50.7 DHD in 2013. In Portugal, the use of fixed-dose combinations, especially with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4) increased remarkably and in 2013 represented almost a quarter of total GLD consumption. In the Netherlands, the use of combinations was residual. The consumption of GLD rose over the 10-year period in both countries. However, Portuguese overall consumption and costs of GLD were higher. The differentially rapid uptake of DPP-4 inhibitors in Portugal was the main driver of the cost difference. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Availability of added sugars in Brazil: distribution, food sources and time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Renata Bertazzi; Claro, Rafael Moreira; Bandoni, Daniel Henrique; Mondini, Lenise; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto

    2012-03-01

    To describe the regional and socio-economic distribution of consumption of added sugar in Brazil in 2002/03, particularly products, sources of sugar and trends in the past 15 years. The study used data from Household Budget Surveys since the 1980s about the type and quantity of food and beverages bought by Brazilian families. Different indicators were analyzed: % of sugar calories over the total diet energy and caloric % of table sugar fractions and sugar added to processed food/ sugar calories of diet. In 2002/03, of the total energy available for consumption, 16.7% came from added sugar in all regional and socio-economic strata. The table sugar/ sugar added to processed food ratio was inversely proportional to increase in income. Although this proportion fell in the past 15 years, sugar added to processed food doubled, especially in terms of consumption of soft drinks and cookies. Brazilians consume more sugar than the recommended levels determined by the WHO and the sources of consumption of sugar have changed significantly.

  15. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  16. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  17. Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

    2018-03-10

    The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

  18. Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

    2016-04-01

    Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  20. Treatment Complexity in Cystic Fibrosis: Trends over Time and Associations with Site-Specific Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicki, Gregory S.; Ren, Clement L.; Konstan, Michael W.; Millar, Stefanie J.; Pasta, David J.; Quittner, Alexandra L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) have increasing treatment complexity and high treatment burden. We describe trends in treatment complexity and evaluate its relationship with health outcomes. Methods Using Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis (ESCF) data, we developed a treatment complexity score (TCS) from 37 chronic therapies and assessed change by age group (6–13, 14–17, and 18+ years) over a three year period. Differences in average site TCS were evaluated by quartiles based on FEV1, BMI, or Treatment Burden score on the Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R). Results TCS scores were calculated for 7252 individual patients (42% child, 16% adolescent, 43% adult) across 153 sites. In 2003, mean TCS was 11.1 for children, 11.8 for adolescents, and 12.1 for adults. In all 3 age groups, TCS increased over 3 years; the increase in TCS from 2003–2005 for children was 1.25 (95% CI 1.16–1.34), for adolescents 0.77 (0.62–0.93), and for adults 1.20 (1.08–1.31) (all pbased on FEV1 quartile. Mean TCS was higher in the highest BMI z-score quartile. Across all 3 versions of the CFQ-R, mean TCS was lower at sites in the highest quartiles (lowest burden) for CFQ-R Treatment Burden scores. Conclusion Treatment complexity was highest among adults with CF, although over 3 years, we observed a significant increase in treatment complexity in all age groups. Such increases in treatment complexity pose a challenge to patient self-management and adherence. Future research is needed to understand the associations between treatment complexity and subsequent health outcomes to reduce treatment burden and improve disease management. PMID:23352205

  1. EPQ model for imperfect production processes with rework and random preventive machine time for deteriorating items and trended demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Nita H.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic production quantity (EPQ model has been analyzed for trended demand, and units in inventory are subject to constant rate. The system allows rework of imperfect units, and preventive maintenance time is random. A search method is used to study the model. The proposed methodology is validated by a numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the critical model parameters. It is observed that the rate of change of demand, and the deterioration rate have a significant impact on the decision variables and the total cost of an inventory system. The model is highly sensitive to the production and demand rate.

  2. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  3. A retrospective time trend study of firearm and non- firearm homicide ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USA, firearm ownership is known to be a significant predictor of ... firearm homicide after 2010 coincided with police fast-tracking new firearm licence applications. Cape Town's coloured .... provided a measure of person-time. We carried out ...

  4. Longitudinal trends in climate drive flowering time clines in North American Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samis, Karen E; Murren, Courtney J; Bossdorf, Oliver; Donohue, Kathleen; Fenster, Charles B; Malmberg, Russell L; Purugganan, Michael D; Stinchcombe, John R

    2012-06-01

    Introduced species frequently show geographic differentiation, and when differentiation mirrors the ancestral range, it is often taken as evidence of adaptive evolution. The mouse-ear cress (Arabidopsis thaliana) was introduced to North America from Eurasia 150-200 years ago, providing an opportunity to study parallel adaptation in a genetic model organism. Here, we test for clinal variation in flowering time using 199 North American (NA) accessions of A. thaliana, and evaluate the contributions of major flowering time genes FRI, FLC, and PHYC as well as potential ecological mechanisms underlying differentiation. We find evidence for substantial within population genetic variation in quantitative traits and flowering time, and putatively adaptive longitudinal differentiation, despite low levels of variation at FRI, FLC, and PHYC and genome-wide reductions in population structure relative to Eurasian (EA) samples. The observed longitudinal cline in flowering time in North America is parallel to an EA cline, robust to the effects of population structure, and associated with geographic variation in winter precipitation and temperature. We detected major effects of FRI on quantitative traits associated with reproductive fitness, although the haplotype associated with higher fitness remains rare in North America. Collectively, our results suggest the evolution of parallel flowering time clines through novel genetic mechanisms.

  5. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  6. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  7. Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeghi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

  8. Weekly Trends in Preschoolers’ Physical Activity and Sedentary Time in Childcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh M. Vanderloo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to examine how the physical activity levels and sedentary time of preschoolers attending center-based childcare varied across the week. Sex differences were also explored. Participants (n = 101 wore Actical™ accelerometers (15 s epoch for five consecutive days during childcare hours only. A multivariate repeated measures analysis of variance was used to evaluate levels of sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA physical activity across the five weekdays. Total physical activity (TPA was analyzed separately in a univariate repeated measures ANOVA. Sex was entered as an additional between-subjects factor. Levels of sedentary time, LPA, and TPA across the week were found to be statistically significant, and can best be described by quadratic effects. Participants’ activity levels and sedentary time typically peaked mid-week. Levels of physical activity and sedentary time were not found to significantly differ based on sex. Childcare centers may benefit from the introduction and/or modification of active play-based programming and curricula, particularly at the start and end of the week where preschoolers’ activity levels tend to be lower. Additional investigations are required to confirm these findings.

  9. Trends in mammography over time for women with and without chronic disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2015-07-01

    Women with disabilities often receive mammograms at lower rates than do nondisabled women, although this disparity varies by disability type and severity. Given the implementation of disability civil rights laws in the early 1990s, we examined whether disability disparities in mammogram use have diminished over time. We analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses of civilian, noninstitutionalized United States female residents 50 to 74 years old from selected years between 1998 and 2010. We identified seven chronic disability types using self-reported functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration. We conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses examining associations of self-reported mammogram use within the previous two years with sociodemographic factors and disability. Most chronic disability rates rose over time. The most common disability was movement difficulties, with rates increasing from 35.6% (1998) to 39.8% (2010). Mammogram rates for all women remained relatively stable over time, ranging from 72% to 75%. Bivariable analyses generally found statistically significantly lower mammogram rates for women with disability versus nondisabled women. Over time, disparities grew significantly between women with any basic action difficulty or complex activity limitation and nondisabled women (pdisability. Little has changed since 1998 in mammogram rates for women with versus without disabilities. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities in mammography testing.

  10. Incidence and Trends in Psychopathology Symptoms over Time in Adults with Severe to Profound Intellectual Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horovitz, Max; Matson, Johnny L.; Sipes, Megan; Shoemaker, Mary; Belva, Brian; Bamburg, Jay W.

    2011-01-01

    Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have a high risk for developing comorbid psychopathology. While researchers have shown that symptoms of psychopathology remain relatively stable in children with ID over time, little research has been conducted to demonstrate symptom stability for adults with ID. Incidence of psychopathology symptoms…

  11. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years...

  12. Time trends in recurrence of juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibroma: Experience of the past 4 decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Anupam; Mishra, Subhash Chandra

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of time distribution of juvenile nasopharyngeal angiofibroma (JNA) from the last 4 decades is presented. Sixty recurrences were analyzed as per actuarial survival. SPSS software was used to generate Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves and time distributions were compared by Log-rank, Breslow and Tarone-Ware test. The overall recurrence rate was 17.59%. Majority underwent open transpalatal approach(es) without embolization. The probability of detecting a recurrence was 95% in first 24months and comparison of KM curves of 4 different time periods was not significant. This is the first and largest series to address the time-distribution. The required follow up period is 2years. Our recurrence is just half of the largest series (reported so far) suggesting the superiority of transpalatal techniques. The similarity of curves suggests less likelihood for recent technical advances to influence the recurrence that as per our hypothesis is more likely to reflect tumor biology per se. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

  14. Trends in Pap Testing Over Time for Women With and Without Chronic Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2016-02-01

    Data from 20 years ago--shortly after passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act--showed that women with significant mobility disability had 40% lower Pap test rates than other women. To examine whether disability disparities in Pap test rates have diminished over time, this study analyzed National Health Interview Survey responses from selected years between 1998 and 2010 from women aged 21-65 years without histories of cervical cancer or hysterectomy. Seven chronic disability types were identified using self-reported functional impairments or participation limitations. Self-reported Pap testing within the previous 3 years was studied. Bivariable analyses and multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic variables were conducted in 2014. Rates of all chronic disability types increased over time. Pap test rates remained relatively constant over time for all women, holding around 84%-87%. Bivariable analyses found statistically significantly lower rates of Pap testing for women with disability compared with nondisabled women. Multivariable analyses failed to find consistent evidence of lower Pap test rates among women across disability types compared with nondisabled women. In 2010, the AOR for reporting Pap testing for women noting the most severe movement difficulty compared with nondisabled women was 0.35 (95% CI=0.15, 0.79). However, the AOR for this disability type varied over time. Little has changed over time in Pap test rates for all women. Women with certain disabilities continue to experience disparities compared with nondisabled women in receipt of this important screening test. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Trends of Concurrent Ankle Arthroscopy at the Time of Operative Treatment of Ankle Fracture: A National Database Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Jakob; Fraser, Ethan J; Murawski, Christopher D; Desai, Payal; Vig, Khushdeep; Kennedy, John G

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to report trends associated with concurrent ankle arthroscopy at the time of operative treatment of ankle fracture. The current procedural terminology (CPT) billing codes were used to search the PearlDiver Patient Record Database and identify all patients who were treated for acute ankle fracture in the United States. The Medicare Standard Analytic Files were searchable between 2005 and 2011 and the United Healthcare Orthopedic Dataset from 2007 to 2011. Annual trends were expressed only between 2007 and 2011, as it was the common time period among both databases. Demographic factors were identified for all procedures as well as the cost aspect using the Medicare data set. In total, 32 307 patients underwent open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) of an ankle fracture, of whom 313 (1.0%) had an ankle arthroscopy performed simultaneously. Of those 313 cases, 70 (22.4%) patients received microfracture treatment. Between 2005 and 2011, 85 203 patients were treated for an ankle fracture whether via ORIF or closed treatment. Of these, a total of 566 patients underwent arthroscopic treatment within 7 years. The prevalence of arthroscopy after ankle fracture decreased significantly by 45% from 2007 to 2011 (Pankle fracture treatment, it appears that only a small proportion of surgeons in the United States perform these procedures concurrently. Therapeutic, Level IV: Retrospective. © 2015 The Author(s).

  16. Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

  17. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  18. Updating the New Zealand Glacier Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, S. C.; Anderson, B.; Mackintosh, A.; Lorrey, A.; Chinn, T.; Collier, C.; Rack, W.; Purdie, H.

    2017-12-01

    The last complete glacier inventory of New Zealand dates from the year 1978 (North Island 1988) and was manually constructed from oblique aerial photographs and geodetic maps (Chinn 2001). The inventory has been partly updated by Gjermundsen et al. (2011) for the year 2002 (40% of total area) and by Sirguey & More (2010) for the year 2009 (32% of total area), both using ASTER satellite imagery. We used Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS satellite data from February/March 2016 to map the total glaciated area. Clean and debris-covered ice were mapped semi-automatically. The band ratio approach was used for clean ice (ratio: red/SWIR). We mapped debris-covered ice using a supervised classification (maximum likelihood). Manual post processing was necessary due to misclassifications (e.g. lakes, clouds) or mapping in shadowed areas. It was also necessary to manually combine the clean and debris-covered parts into single glaciers. Additional input data for the post processing were Sentinel 2 images from the same time period, orthophotos from Land Information New Zealand (resolution: 0.75 m, date: Nov 2014), and the 1978/88 outlines from the GLIMS database (http://www.glims.org/). As the Sentinel 2 data were more heavily cloud covered compared to the Landsat 8 images, they were only used for post processing and not for the classification itself. Initial results show that New Zealand glaciers covered an area of about 1050 km² in 2016, a reduction of 16% since 1978. Approximately 17% of glacier area was covered in surface debris. The glaciers in the central Southern Alps around Mt Cook reduced in area by 24%. Glaciers in the North Island of New Zealand reduced by 71% since 1988, and only 2 km² of ice cover remained in 2016. Chinn, TJH (2001). "Distribution of the glacial water resources of New Zealand." Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 40(2): 139-187 Gjermundsen, EF, Mathieu, R, Kääb, A, Chinn, TJH, Fitzharris, B & Hagen, JO (2011). "Assessment of multispectral glacier mapping methods and

  19. Time trends in alcohol intake in early pregnancy and official recommendations in Denmark, 1998-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kesmodel, Ulrik S; Petersen, Gitte L; Henriksen, Tine B

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In 1999, Danish health authorities modified their recommendation to pregnant women, condoning some alcohol intake. In 2007, the recommendation was changed to one of alcohol abstention. We aimed to assess changes in average alcohol intake (drinks/week) and alcohol binge drinking...... in early pregnancy from 1998 to 2013 in relation to the changes in official recommendations in 1999 (condoning some intake) and 2007 (abstention). MATERIAL AND METHODS: All Danish-speaking pregnant women attending routine antenatal care at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Aarhus University...... on a single occasion), and the timing (gestational week) of these episodes. Additional questions on binge drinking defined as ≥3 drinks on a single occasion were asked separately from 2000. A question assessed the average number of alcohol-containing drinks per week the woman consumed currently at the time...

  20. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: A meta-regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Methods Meta-regression analyses of available data. Data Sources: MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Results Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%?82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening ten...

  1. Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henningsen, Anna-Karina A; Bergh, Christina; Skjaerven, Rolv; Tiitinen, Aila; Wennerholm, Ulla-Britt; Romundstad, Liv B; Gissler, Mika; Opdahl, Signe; Nyboe Andersen, Anders; Lidegaard, Øjvind; Forman, Julie L; Pinborg, Anja

    2018-03-23

    Children born after assisted reproductive technology, particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study whether there has been a change in the past 20 years in the risk of major congenital malformations in children conceived after assisted reproductive technology compared with children spontaneously conceived. Population-based cohort study including 90 201 assisted reproductive technology children and 482 552 children spontaneously conceived, born in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Both singletons and twins born after in vitro fertilization, intracytoplasmatic sperm injection and frozen embryo transfer were included. Data on children was taken from when the national Nordic assisted reproductive technology registries were established until 2007. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the risks and adjusted odds ratios for congenital malformations in four time periods: 1988-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007. Only major malformations were included. The absolute risk for singletons of being born with a major malformation was 3.4% among assisted reproductive technology children vs. 2.9% among children spontaneously conceived during the study period. The relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation between all assisted reproductive technology children and children spontaneously conceived remained similar through all four time periods (p = 0.39). However, we found that over time the number of children diagnosed with a major malformation increased in both groups across all four time periods. When comparing children conceived after assisted reproductive technology and spontaneously conceived, the relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation did not change during the study period. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  2. Time trends in the etiology of chronic pancreatitis in South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, Gopalakrishna; Girish, Banavara Narasimhamurthy; Panicker, Suprabha; Balakrishnan, Vallath

    2014-01-01

    Recent reports indicate a decline in prevalence of classical tropical chronic pancreatitis (TCP). We studied the etiologies and risk factors over a 14-year period at a tertiary care university hospital. We compared the etiology in chronic pancreatitis (CP) patients presenting and followed-up in our Pancreas Clinic over two time periods (2000-06 and 2007-13). Idiopathic chronic pancreatitis (ICP) was the predominant etiology seen over the two time periods. However an increase in prevalence of alcoholic chronic pancreatitis (ACP) during the latter time period suggests that it may be emerging as a dominant etiology over recent years. Hypertriglyceridemia and hyperparathyroidism were uncommon causes of non-alcoholic CP. Autoimmune pancreatitis was noted only during 2007-13, but remains a rare cause of CP. There are multiple risk factors for CP in our population. The high prevalence of ICP indicates need closer examination of risk factors and ICP pathogenesis. ACP appears to be emerging as a dominant cause of CP which suggests a need to reorient preventive strategies.

  3. ANZUS in Revision: Changing Defense Features of Australia and New Zealand in the Mid-1980s

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-02-01

    Allan C. Brownfeld, "Fragility of Alliance Illustrated in New Zealand," Washington Times, 12 September 1984, 3C-4C; Beaglehole, 8 ; Graham Ansell , 4 1...RAN purchased three US-built Adams -class guided missile destroyers . In the 1970s Australia decided to buy four Perry-class guided missiles frigates...According to Graham Ansell , the New Zealand high commissioner for Australia, his government understands the "Pacific way" of the islands . New Zealand

  4. Time-trends and congener profiles of PBDEs and PCBs in California peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, June-Soo; Holden, Arthur; Chu, Vivian; Kim, Michele; Rhee, Alexandra; Patel, Puja; Shi, Yating; Linthicum, Janet; Walton, Brian J; McKeown, Karen; Jewell, Nicholas P; Hooper, Kim

    2009-12-01

    High levels (microg/g lw) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in peregrine falcon eggs from California (n = 90 eggs from 52 birds, 38 nest sites, collected 1986-2007, SigmaPBDEs median = 4.53, range = 0.08-53.1). Over the past 22 years, PBDE levels more than tripled each decade in the eggs, whereas PCB levels had no significant changes. PBDE levels were highest in eggs from major California cities ("Big Cities"), whereas PCBs showed no difference across the regions. For PBDEs, Big City eggs had markedly different patterns from Coastal eggs: BDE-209 and the higher brominated PBDEs (hexa-nona) were dominant congeners in Big City eggs, while BDE-47 and -99 were dominant in Coastal eggs. In many of the birds that gave multiple eggs over time ("time series"), PBDE patterns changed over time: the high proportions of BDE-209 and higher brominated PBDEs (short half-lives) in young birds contrasted with increasingly higher proportions of BDE-153 (long half-life) and other lower brominated PBDEs as the birds aged. These data are consistent with metabolic debromination of BDE-209 (t(1/2) = 1-2 weeks) to the lower brominated PBDEs, with accumulation over time of BDE-153 (t(1/2) = 3-4 years). In contrast, PCB patterns showed no differences by locations, and did not change over time. Diet (prey birds) may explain the urban PBDE pattern, as the patterns in urban pigeons and peregrines were similar, with high proportions of BDE-209 and the higher-brominated PBDEs. Also, our prey data (feathers from peregrine nests) showed urban peregrines having a higher proportion (>2 fold) of granivorous/opportunistic birds (e.g., "introduced feral" pigeons, mourning doves, starlings) in their diet than coastal peregrines. In summary, these data indicate that BDE-209 exits consumer products as an environmental contaminant to be taken up by wildlife (particularly in urban locations), and undergoes metabolic debromination to the banned lower

  5. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Trends and advances in food analysis by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihah, Nur Thaqifah; Hossain, Mohammad Mosharraf; Lubis, Hamadah; Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin

    2016-05-01

    Analyses to ensure food safety and quality are more relevant now because of rapid changes in the quantity, diversity and mobility of food. Food-contamination must be determined to maintain health and up-hold laws, as well as for ethical and cultural concerns. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a rapid and inexpensive quantitative method to detect the presence of targeted DNA-segments in samples, helps in determining both accidental and intentional adulterations of foods by biological contaminants. This review presents recent developments in theory, techniques, and applications of RT-PCR in food analyses, RT-PCR addresses the limitations of traditional food analyses in terms of sensitivity, range of analytes, multiplexing ability, cost, time, and point-of-care applications. A range of targets, including species of plants or animals which are used as food ingredients, food-borne bacteria or viruses, genetically modified organisms, and allergens, even in highly processed foods can be identified by RT-PCR, even at very low concentrations. Microfluidic RT-PCR eliminates the separate sample-processing step to create opportunities for point-of-care analyses. We also cover the challenges related to using RT-PCR for food analyses, such as the need to further improve sample handling.

  7. Temperature Trends in the Polar Mesosphere between 2002-2007 using TIMED/SABER Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Richard A.; Kutepov, Alexander A.; Pesnell, William Dean; Latteck, Ralph; Russell, James M.

    2008-01-01

    The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The TIMED/SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as the temperature of the region. In this study, we have concentrated on the polar mesosphere, to investigate the temperature characteristics as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We used the recently revised SABER dataset (1.07) that contains improved temperature retrievals in the Earth polar summer regions. Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer, as well as to study the variability in different quadrants of each hemisphere. For each year studied, the duration of polar summer based on temperature measurements compares favorably with the PMSE (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes) season measured by radar at the ALOMAR Observatory in Norway (69 N). The PMSE period should also define the summer period suitable for the occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds. The unusual short and relatively warm polar summer in the northern hemisphere

  8. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Kevin M; Woodall, Christopher W

    2012-03-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones

  9. Time-space trends in Swedish divorce behaviour, 1911-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the divorce rates in Sweden have varied over time and across different geographical areas during the period 1911-1974, and how these variations can be connected to the political, socio-economic and cultural development in Sweden. The analysis provides empirical support for the hypothesis that increased divorce rates have been the result of changes in the structural conditions that determine the degree of economic interdependence between spouses. There is a strong connection between the degree of urbanization and the divorce rate on a regional level for the entire research period. The statistical analysis of the regional data indicates that these patterns are connected to the more diversified economy that has developed in urban settings, in the form of a more qualified labour market and higher wages for females. These characteristics resulted in a faster and more pronounced reduction of economic interdependence between spouses, which made divorce more attainable in these areas as compared with rural settings.

  10. Autism Prevalence Trends Over Time in Denmark: Changes in Prevalence and Age at Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik; Schendel, Diana; Thorsen, Poul

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of changing age at diagnosis on the diagnosed prevalence of autism among different birth cohorts. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Children were identified in the Danish Medical Birth Registry and psychiatric outcomes were obtained via linkage...... risk comparing the 1998-1999 birth cohort with the 1994-1995 birth cohort at age 3 years was 1.69 (95% CI, 1.24-2.31), which decreased to 1.23 (95% CI, 1.11-1.37) at age 11 years. Similar results were observed for childhood autism. CONCLUSIONS: Shifts in age at diagnosis inflated the observed...... prevalence of autism in young children in the more recent cohorts compared with the oldest cohort. This study supports the argument that the apparent increase in autism in recent years is at least in part attributable to decreases in the age at diagnosis over time....

  11. A Study of the Equality of Cable Insulations by comparing aging trend using an Oxidation Induction Time Measurement Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyungheum; Bhang, Keugjin; Jeong, Sunchul

    2014-01-01

    Usually, the environmental qualification test is carried out by the cable manufacturer and the test report is presented while the cable manufacturer supplies the tested cables in nuclear power plant. If a cable manufacturer has environmentally qualified a cable for nuclear power plant more than a decade ago and the composition of the cable material is same, is it acceptable to use the old EQ report for recently manufactured cable? Even though the manufacturer insists the composition of the tested cable and recently manufactured cable's material are same, there can some questions or opposing opinions for two cables, tested cable and recently manufactured cable's equality. In this case, how can I determine the equality for the two cables? It is well known method to use FT-IR to determine the similarity of cable materials. FT-IR is easy tool to compare compositions of each material. But FT-IR method is not proper to compare aging trend of these materials. Oxidation induction time(OIT) testing is a technique that can be used to evaluate aging of organic materials and life assessment technique for cables used in nuclear power plants. In this paper, I studied the OIT technique to compare aging trend for the tested cable and recently manufactured cable to determine the equality for the two cables. To study a equality analysis for cable materials, OIT measurement tests were performed for two cable insulation(produced in 1995 and produced in 2013) which were supplied from same manufacturer. The two cables were irradiated up to 40 Mrad to simulate normal 40 years and thermally aged for 144 hours at 170 .deg. C equals to 40 years qualified life at 90 .deg. C. The OIT measurement were made in order to compare aging trends of the '95 cable and the '13 cable, the test were performed for three sequential steps; initial, after Normal Radiation and after Thermal Aging. The OIT measurement results at the temperature of 225 .deg. C showed very similar degradation

  12. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  13. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  15. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  16. Did Medicare Part D Affect National Trends in Health Outcomes or Hospitalizations? A Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesacher, Becky A; Madden, Jeanne M; Zhang, Fang; Fouayzi, Hassan; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Soumerai, Stephen B

    2015-06-16

    Medicare Part D increased economic access to medications, but its effect on population-level health outcomes and use of other medical services remains unclear. To examine changes in health outcomes and medical services in the Medicare population after implementation of Part D. Population-level longitudinal time-series analysis with generalized linear models. Community. Nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 56,293 [unweighted and unique]) from 2000 to 2010. Changes in self-reported health status, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) (ADLs and instrumental ADLs), emergency department visits and hospital admissions (prevalence, counts, and spending), and mortality. Medicare claims data were used for confirmatory analyses. Five years after Part D implementation, no clinically or statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of fair or poor health status or limitations in ADLs or instrumental ADLs, relative to historical trends, were detected. Compared with trends before Part D, no changes in emergency department visits, hospital admissions or days, inpatient costs, or mortality after Part D were seen. Confirmatory analyses were consistent. Only total population-level outcomes were studied. Self-reported measures may lack sensitivity. Five years after implementation, and contrary to previous reports, no evidence was found of Part D's effect on a range of population-level health indicators among Medicare enrollees. Further, there was no clear evidence of gains in medical care efficiencies.

  17. Exploring the history of New Zealand astronomy trials, tribulations, telescopes and transits

    CERN Document Server

    Orchiston, Wayne

    2016-01-01

    Professor Orchiston is a foremost authority on the subject of New Zealand astronomy, and here are the collected papers of his fruitful studies in this area, including both those published many years ago and new material.  The papers herein review traditional Maori astronomy, examine the appearance of nautical astronomy practiced by Cook and his astronomers on their various stopovers in New Zealand during their three voyagers to the South Seas, and also explore notable nineteenth century New Zealand observatories historically, from significant telescopes now located in New Zealand to local and international observations made during the 1874 and 1882 transits of Venus and the nineteenth and twentieth century preoccupation of New Zealand amateur astronomers with comets and meteors. New Zealand astronomy has a truly rich history, extending from the Maori civilization in pre-European times through to the years when explorers and navigators discovered the region, up to pioneering research on the newly emerging fie...

  18. Gender-related difference, geographical variation and time trend in dietary cadmium intake in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, T.; Shimbo, S.; Nakatsuka, H.; Koizumi, A.; Higashikawa, K.; Matsuda-Inoguchi, N.; Ikeda, M.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: The present analysis was initiated to examine possible gender-dependency, geographic variation, and time-dependent changes in dietary intake of cadmium (Cd-F) among general populations in Cd-non-polluted areas in Japan. The role of rice as Cd-F source was also within the scope. Methods: Two databases on Cd and nutritional analyses were re-visited. Both databases were established through collection of 24-h food duplicate portion samples from residents in areas with no known Cd pollution, and contained information on Cd and energy contents in the duplicate portion, together with daily rice consumption, the gender, the age and the location of the residence of each sample donor. The first and the second databases were established through surveys in the years around 1980 on 564 cases and around 1995 on 702 cases, respectively. The two databases were combined for evaluation by multiple regression (MRA) and other analyses. Results: The analyses showed that men tended to take more Cd than women, more clearly so in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. When Cd-F in the 1995 survey was compared with that in the 1980 survey, a substantial decrease was observed, e.g. by 30% (from 37.5 to 26.2 μg/day) in case of women. Cd-F values varied subject to the survey sites in a wide range (e.g. from 20 to 86 μg/day among women in the 1980 survey). In MRA with Cd-F as a dependent variable and survey sites and food intake factors (e.g. rice and energy intakes) as independent variables, the survey sites could explain more than 53% and 35% of total variation in Cd-F in the 1980 and 1995 surveys, respectively. Rice consumption was also influential to Cd-F in both surveys with partial correlation coefficients of 0.36 and 0.21, respectively, the influence being stronger in the 1980 survey than in the 1995 survey. A significant correlation was detected between the 1980 and 1995 survey results both in Cd-F and in rice consumption. Conclusion: Geographic and gender

  19. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  20. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  1. Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postic, Sebastien; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy. - Highlights: • We analyze energy-bound climate mitigation in Latin America with a bottom-up model. • We derive five policy scenarios based on past and current pledges to the UNFCCC. • Despite a clean BAU power mix, the region can cut emissions by up to 40% by 2050. • INDCs lead to stronger emission reductions than former NAMAs. • Energy-only measures would overlook significant abatement potential in AFOLU.

  2. Time trends in cigarette smoking in two German cohorts--results from EPIC Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohrmann, S; Kroke, A; Boeing, H; Becker, N

    2003-08-01

    Smoking prevention is less advanced in Germany compared with other European and North American countries, and fewer data exist, especially on the consumption habits at the individual level over time. EPIC Germany, which is part of a European multicentre study on diet and cancer, collected data on individual smoking behaviour and allows for consideration of the changing consumption pattern for both centres and different age groups. Within EPIC 25 546 and 27 548 participants, respectively, were recruited in Heidelberg and Potsdam. Data on smoking habits were collected by means of a computer-guided interview during the baseline examination between 1994 and 1998. For each birth cohort smoking prevalence and mean number of cigarettes smoked per day at different ages were calculated. Additionally, the prevalence of non-filter cigarette smoking was computed. Smoking prevalence in the 1990s was still higher among men (Heidelberg 16.3-32.3%; Potsdam 18.2-29.3%) than among women (Heidelberg 12.8-32.0%; Potsdam 10.4-27.8%). However, the percentage of women smokers was still increasing. Filter cigarettes comprised a growing percentage of the cigarettes smoked, but especially among men differences between both German cohorts can still be seen: depending on age, 10.0-12.7% of men in the Heidelberg cohort smoked non-filter cigarettes, but only 1.1-2.3% in the Potsdam cohort. The quantity smoked was higher in the Heidelberg than in the Potsdam cohort with respect to the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day as well as the pack-years of smoking. In conclusion, smoking habits in the Potsdam and the Heidelberg cohorts did not strongly differ by smoking prevalence. However, they did differ according to the quantity and quality of smoking. These differences, as well as the changes over the last 40 years may contribute to a changing pattern of diseases in different groups of the German population.

  3. K-infinite trends with burnup, enrichment, and cooling time for BWR fuel assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadhead, B.L.

    1998-08-01

    This report documents the work performed by ORNL for the Yucca Mountain project (YMP) M and O contractor, Framatome Cogema Fuels. The goal of this work was to obtain k inf values for infinite arrays of flooded boiling-water-reactor (BWR) fuel assemblies as a function of various burnup/enrichment and cooling-time combinations. These scenarios simulate expected limiting criticality loading conditions (for a given assembly type) for drift emplacements in a repository. Upon consultation with the YMP staff, a Quad Cities BWR fuel assembly was selected as a baseline assembly. This design consists of seven axial enrichment zones, three of which contain natural uranium oxide. No attempt was made to find a bounding or even typical assembly design due to the wide variety in fuel assembly designs necessary for consideration. The current work concentrates on establishing a baseline analysis, along with a small number of sensitivity studies which can be expected later if desired. As a result of similar studies of this nature, several effects are known to be important in the determination of the final k inf for spent fuel in a cask-like geometry. For a given enrichment there is an optimal burnup: for lower burnups, excess energy (and corresponding excess reactivity) is present in the fuel assembly; for larger burnups, the assembly is overburned and essentially driven by neighboring fuel assemblies. The majority of the burnup/enrichment scenarios included in this study were for some near-optimum burnup/enrichment combinations as determined from Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Several calculations were performed for under- and over-burned fuel to show these effects

  4. Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

    2014-12-01

    The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

  5. Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

  6. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Groshek

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter. Time-series analyses of the most prominent topics identify the extent to which traditional media sets the agenda for social media as well as reciprocal agenda-setting effects of social media topics entering traditional media agendas. In addition, this study examines social intermedia agenda setting topically and across time within social networking sites, and in so doing, adds a vital understanding of where traditional media, online uses, and social media content intersect around instances of focusing events, particularly elections. Findings identify core differences between certain traditional and social media agendas, but also within social media agendas that extend from uses examined here. Additional results further suggest important topical and event-oriented limitations upon the predictive capacit of social networking sites to shape traditional media agendas over time.

  7. The main trends of dynamics of incomes of Russians in times of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. L. Petryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all

  8. Time trends for risk of severe age-related diseases in individuals with and without HIV infection in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line D; May, Margaret T; Kronborg, Gitte

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Whether the reported high risk of age-related diseases in HIV-infected people is caused by biological ageing or HIV-associated risk factors such as chronic immune activation and low-grade inflammation is unknown. We assessed time trends in age-standardised and relative risks of nine...... serious age-related diseases in a nationwide cohort study of HIV-infected individuals and population controls. METHODS: We identified all HIV-infected individuals in the Danish HIV Cohort Study who had received HIV care in Denmark between Jan 1, 1995, and June 1, 2014. Population controls were identified...... from the Danish Civil Registration System and individually matched in a ratio of nine to one to the HIV-infected individuals for year of birth, sex, and date of study inclusion. Individuals were included in the study if they had a Danish personal identification number, were aged 16 years or older...

  9. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa M. Roche

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES in New Jersey (NJ, a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologies and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques.

  10. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in five European countries in 2009 and time trends from 2002 to 2009 based on administrative data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau C; Christiansen, Terkel; Garcia-Armesto, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Potentially avoidable hospitalizations in chronic conditions are used to evaluate health-care performance. However, evidence comparing different countries at small geographical areas is still scarce. The aim of the present study is to describe and discuss differences in rates and time......-trends across health-care areas from five European countries. METHODS: Observational, ecological study, on virtually all discharges produced in five European countries between 2002 and 2009. Potentially avoidable hospitalizations were operationally defined as a joint indicator composed of six chronic conditions....... Episodes flagged as potentially avoidable were allocated to 913 geographical health-care areas. Age-sex standardized rates and standardized hospitalization ratios, as well as several statistics of variation, were estimated. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-two thousand seven hundred and ninety-two episodes were...

  11. Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in oral health among 15-year-old Danish adolescents during 1995–2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sengupta, Kaushik; Christensen, Lisa Bøge; Mortensen, Laust Hvas

    Background: Scandinavian welfare states, despite having better population oral health when compared to less egalitarian societies, are characterized by ubiquitous social gradients and large relative socioeconomic inequalities in oral health. However, time trends in these inequalities among...... at Statistics Denmark. SEP measures included previous year’s parental education (highest attained educational level between the parents), income (equivalized household disposable income), and occupational social class (highest recorded occupational class between the parents). Covariates were immigration status......, country of origin, number of children and persons in the family, and household type. The outcome was dental caries experience, determined by the decayed, missing, and filled surfaces (DMFS) index. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the association between DMFS count and each...

  12. Thyroid Cancer Incidence in New Jersey: Time Trend, Birth Cohort and Socioeconomic Status Analysis (1979-2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, L.M.; Niu, X.; Pawlish, K.S.; Henry, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES) in New Jersey (NJ), a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologists and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic) radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques

  13. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  15. Breakthrough dynamics of s-metolachlor metabolites in drinking water wells: Transport pathways and time to trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farlin, Julien; Gallé, Tom; Bayerle, Michael; Pittois, Denis; Köppchen, Stephan; Krause, Martina; Hofmann, Diana

    2018-06-01

    We present the results of a two years study on the contamination of the Luxembourg Sandstone aquifer by metolachlor-ESA and metolachlor-OXA, two major transformation products of s-metolachlor. The aim of the study was twofold: (i) assess whether elevated concentrations of both transformation products (up to 1000 ng/l) were due to fast flow breakthough events of short duration or the signs of a contamination of the entire aquifer and (ii) estimate the time to trend reversal once the parent compound was withdrawn from the market. These two questions were addressed by a combined use of groundwater monitoring, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of the fate of the degradation products in the subsurface. Twelve springs were sampled weekly over an eighteen month period, and the degradation rates of both the parent compound and its transformation products were measured on a representative soil in the laboratory using a radiolabeled precursor. Modelling with the numeric code PEARL simulating pesticide fate in soil coupled to a simple transfer function model for the aquifer compartment, and calibrated from the field and laboratory data, predicts a significant damping by the aquifer of the peaks of concentration of both metolachlor-ESA and -OXA leached from the soil. The time to trend reversal following the ban of s-metolachlor in spring protection zones should be observed before the end of the decade, while the return of contaminant concentrations below the drinking water limit of 100 ng/l however is expected to last up to twelve years. The calculated contribution to total water discharge of the fast-flow component from cropland and short-circuiting the aquifer was small in most springs (median of 1.2%), but sufficient to cause additional peaks of concentration of several hundred nanograms per litre in spring water. These peaks are superimposed on the more steady contamination sustained by the base flow, and should cease immediately once application of the

  16. Time trends in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, 1988-2010, in a tertiary center with high methicillin resistance rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahav, Dafna; Shaked, Hila; Goldberg, Elad; Yassin, Sharief; Eliakim-Raz, Noa; Paul, Mical; Bishara, Jihad; Leibovici, Leonard

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) have been described in recent decades. Decreased mortality has been reported over time, mostly from countries with low methicillin resistance rates. We aimed to describe time trends in SAB in a tertiary center with high methicillin resistance rates. We retrospectively analyzed 1692 patients with SAB, and compared between three time periods: 1988-1994 (342 patients), 1998-2004 (597 patients) and 2005-2010 (753 patients). In our cohort, 30 days mortality increased significantly with time, reaching 42.9 % during 2005-2010. The latter period was characterized by higher rates of older patients (35.1 % aged 80 years and older), with lower functional capacity (46.5 % bedridden) and higher rates of comorbidities (33.6 % renal disease, 24.8 % heart failure, 19.0 % dementia). These patients were more likely to be ventilated (18.7 %) and carry a urinary catheter at presentation (46.6 %); present with septic shock (15.9 %) and have pneumonia (20.5 %) or endocarditis (7.2 %) as source. Similar characteristics were found among patients younger than 50 years and with independent functional status. No significant increase in methicillin resistant Staph aureus (MRSA) rates or inappropriate empirical therapy was demonstrated during 2005-2010. In our cohort, increased mortality in recent years in patients with SAB can be explained by baseline condition of patients. MRSA or inappropriate empiric therapy did not explain the increase in mortality. The patients afflicted with SAB changed over time. Epidemiology and outcomes of SAB vary with time and according to geographical location. External validity of studies should be taken into consideration.

  17. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in elderly people: 20 year follow-up of the Spanish population national health survey (1987-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrasco-Garrido Pilar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness between 1987-2006 in older Spanish people. Methods We analyzed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 1987 (n = 29,647, 1993 (n = 20,707, 1995-1997 (n = 12,800, 2001 (n = 21,058, 2003 (n = 21,650, and 2006 (n = 29,478. The number of subjects aged ≥ 65 years included in the current study was 29,263 (1987: n = 4,958-16.7%; 1993: n = 3,751-17.8%; 1995-97: n = 2,229-17.4%; 2001: n = 4,356-20.7%; 2003: 6,134-28.3%; 2006: 7,835-26.5%. Main variables included leisure-time physical activity and physical fitness. We analyzed socio-demographic characteristics, self-rated health status, lifestyle habit and co-morbid conditions using multivariate logistic regression models. Results Women exhibited lower prevalence of leisure time physical activity and physical fitness compared to men (P Conclusions We found an increase in leisure time physical activity in the older Spanish population. Older age, married status, co-morbid conditions, obesity, and worse self-perceived health status were associated with lower activity. Identification of these factors can help to identify individuals at risk for physical inactivity.

  18. Access to cigarettes by young New Zealand smokers: little change from 2000 to 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Louise; Gray, Andrew; McGee, Rob; Newcombe, Rhiannon; Patterson, Rose

    2012-10-01

    To examine trends in young New Zealanders' access to cigarettes from 2002 to 2008. Self-reports of young smokers' commercial sources of cigarettes, requests for proof of age and being refused a sale, and the amount spent on cigarettes, were analysed from the 2002 and 2004 Youth Lifestyles Surveys and 2006 and 2008 Year 10 In-depth Surveys of 14 to 15 year olds in New Zealand (NZ). Most young smokers obtain cigarettes through non-commercial sources; however, one-third bought their cigarettes from shops in 2008, with no evidence of a change in proportions purchasing from major retail outlets since 2000. Few young smokers were asked to show proof of age when purchasing cigarettes, with no evidence over time of more young smokers being asked for proof of age, but reports of being refused the sale of cigarettes decreased from 2000. Participants reporting being asked for proof of age had nearly six times the odds of being refused sale. The amount spent on cigarettes did not change over the study period. Many young smokers continue to purchase cigarettes from commercial outlets, with no evidence of change in purchasing from major outlets such as dairies, service stations, supermarkets or liquor stores since 2000. The fact that few young smokers reported being asked to show proof of age suggests the need for stronger measures to ensure that retailers comply with New Zealand legislation regarding under-age sales of tobacco. With an infringement notice scheme being implemented and tobacco price rises, there may be an increase in accessing cigarettes through social sources. It remains important to monitor commercial tobacco sales to young people to determine the efficacy of policy change. © 2012 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2012 Public Health Association of Australia.

  19. Ages of 24 widespread tephras erupted since 30,000 years ago in New Zealand, with re-evaluation of the timing and palaeoclimatic implications of the Lateglacial cool episode recorded at Kaipo bog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, David J.; Blaauw, Maarten; Hogg, Alan G.; Newnham, Rewi M.

    2013-08-01

    cal. yr BP; Rotorua 15,635 ± 412 cal. yr BP; Rerewhakaaitu 17,496 ± 462 cal. yr BP; Okareka 21,858 ± 290 cal. yr BP; Te Rere 25,171 ± 964 cal. yr BP; Kawakawa/Oruanui 25,358 ± 162 cal. yr BP; Poihipi 28,446 ± 670 cal. yr BP; and Okaia 28,621 ± 1428 cal. yr BP. Secondly, we have re-dated the start and end of the Lateglacial cool episode (climate event NZce-3 in the NZ-CES), previously referred to as the Lateglacial climate reversal, as defined at Kaipo bog in eastern North Island, New Zealand, using both Bacon and OxCal P_Sequence modelling with the IntCal09 data set. The ca 1200-yr-long cool episode, indicated by a lithostratigraphic change in the Kaipo peat sequence to grey mud with lowered carbon content, and a high-resolution pollen-derived cooling signal, began 13,739 ± 125 cal. yr BP and ended 12,550 ± 140 cal. yr BP (mid-point ages of the 95% highest posterior density regions, Bacon modelling). The OxCal modelling, generating almost identical ages, confirmed these ages. The Lateglacial cool episode (ca 13.8-12.6 cal. ka BP) thus overlaps a large part of the entire Antarctic Cold Reversal chronozone (ca 14.1-12.4 cal. ka BP or ca 14.6-12.8 cal. ka BP), and an early part of the Greenland Stadial-1 (Younger Dryas) chronozone (ca 12.9-11.7 cal. ka BP). The timing of the Lateglacial cool episode at Kaipo is broadly consistent with the latitudinal patterns in the Antarctic Cold Reversal signal suggested for the New Zealand archipelago from marine and terrestrial records, and with records from southern South America.

  20. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  1. Time trends in disability pensioning for rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism in Norway 1968-97.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holte, Hilde H; Tambs, Kristian; Bjerkedal, Tor

    2003-01-01

    Disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diagnoses increased more than general disability pensioning in Norway during 1968-97. Incidences of disability pensioning for three main musculoskeletal diseases - rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism - during the period 1968-97 were assessed. Changes in incidence were related to changes in Norwegian society with respect to prevalence of these diseases, the number of individuals having high probability of disability pensioning for these diseases, the labour market and legal amendments that may have changed the probability of being granted a disability pension among these patients. Data on all new disability pensioners aged 50-66 years registered by the National Insurance Administration during 1968-97 and the total population of Norway excluding disability pensioners were used to calculate annual incidence rates of disability pension for the selected musculoskeletal diagnoses. The incidence of disability pension for soft tissue rheumatism and osteoarthritis increased during the study period, and both increased more than the incidence of disability pension in general. The incidence of disability pension for rheumatoid arthritis decreased when compared with disability pensioning in general. The year an upward or downward trend started is similar for osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism for men and women in the age groups studied. Changes in prevalence of a disease seem to be an important factor in explaining differences in time trends of disability pensioning with different diagnoses. Changes in unemployment, female employment, number of manual workers or the legal system do not appear to be related to the increases in incidence of disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diseases.

  2. Levels, fluxes and time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Lake Thun, Switzerland: Combining trace analysis and multimedia modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Schmid, Peter; Blaeuenstein, Markus; Kohler, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2010-01-01

    Levels, mass fluxes, and time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Thun, a peri-Alpine lake, are investigated. We present measurements of PBDEs and PCBs in air, lake water, lake sediment, and tributary water. These measurements are combined with a multimedia fate model, based on site-specific environmental parameters from the lake catchment. Measured loadings of PBDEs and PCBs in air and tributaries were used to drive the model. The model satisfactorily reproduces PBDE and PCB congener patterns in water and sediment, but it tends to yield concentrations in water below the measurements and concentrations in sediment exceeding the measurements. A sensitivity analysis reveals that partitioning of PBDEs and PCBs between the aqueous dissolved phase and suspended particulate matter in the water column strongly affects the model results, in particular the concentrations in water and sediment. For lower-brominated PBDEs, approximately 70% and 30% of input into the lake stems from atmospheric deposition and from tributaries, respectively. For heavier PBDEs and all PCBs, rivers appear to deliver the major load (64-92%). Waste water effluents are of minor importance. 50-90% of the total input is buried in the permanent sediment. Sediment burial makes PBDEs and PCBs less available for recycling in the environment, and reduces concentrations in the outflowing river. If use of deca-BDE increases in the future, levels in Lake Thun will follow the same trend. If the use and resulting environmental emissions decrease, concentrations in water will rapidly decline, according to our calculations, while sediment levels will decrease at a considerably slower rate.

  3. Suicide in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Shahtahmasebi

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores and questions some of the notions associated with suicide including mental illness. On average, about two-thirds of suicide cases do not come into contact with mental health services, therefore, we have no objective assessment of their mental status or their life events. One method of improving our objective understanding of suicide would be to use data mining techniques in order to build life event histories on all deaths due to suicide. Although such an exercise would require major funding, partial case histories became publicly available from a coroner's inquest on cases of suicide during a period of three months in Christchurch, New Zealand. The case histories were accompanied by a newspaper article reporting comments from some of the families involved. A straightforward contextual analysis of this information suggests that (i only five cases had contact with mental health services, in two of the cases this was due to a previous suicide attempt and in the other three it was due to drug and alcohol dependency; (ii mental illness as the cause of suicide is fixed in the public mindset, (iii this in turn makes psychological autopsy type studies that seek information from families and friends questionable; (iv proportionally more females attempt, but more men tend to complete suicide; and (v not only is the mental health-suicide relationship tenuous, but suicide also appears to be a process outcome. It is hoped that this will stimulate debate and the collaboration of international experts regardless of their school of thought.

  4. The anatomy of an andesite volcano: A time-stratigraphic study of andesite petrogenesis and crustal evolution at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Price, R.C.; Gamble, J.A.; Smith, I.E.M.

    2012-01-01

    Ruapehu, New Zealand’s largest active andesite volcano is located at the southern tip of the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ), the main locus of subduction-related volcanism in the North Island. Geophysical data indicate that crustal thickness transitions from ... Ruapehu. The volcano is built on a basement of Mesozoic metagreywacke and geophysical evidence together with xenoliths contained in lavas indicates that this is underlain by oceanic, meta-igneous lower crust. The present-day Ruapehu edifice has been constructed by a series of eruptive events that produced...... and andesite. Dacite also occurs but only one basalt flow has been identified. There have been progressive changes in the minor and trace element chemistry and isotopic composition of Ruapehu eruptives over time. In comparison with rocks from younger formations, Te Herenga eruptives have lower K2O abundances...

  5. Promoting the Maori Language to Non-Maori: Evaluating the New Zealand Government's Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bres, Julia

    2011-01-01

    New Zealand's two main government Maori language planning agencies, the Maori Language Commission and the Ministry of Maori Development, have engaged for some time in language planning targeting the attitudes and behaviours of non-Maori New Zealanders towards the Maori language. This activity is undertaken on the basis that the attitudes and…

  6. The air-sea equilibrium and time trend of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic and Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakaschus, Sonke; Weber, Kurt; Wania, Frank; Bruhn, Regina; Schrems, Otto

    2002-01-15

    Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were determined simultaneously in air and seawater during two cruises across the Atlantic Ocean between the Arctic Ocean (Ny-Alesund/ Svalbard, 79 degrees N; 12 degrees E) and the Antarctic Continent (Neumayer Station/ Ekstroem Ice Shelf, 70 degrees S; 8.2 degrees W) in 1999/ 2000. The concentrations of alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH in air and surface waters of the Arctic exceeded those in Antarctica by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The gaseous concentrations of gamma-HCH were highest above the North Sea and between 20 degrees N and 30 degrees S. Fugacity fractions were used to estimate the direction of the air-sea gas exchange. These showed for alpha-HCH thatthe measured concentrations in both phases were close to equilibrium in the North Atlantic (78 degrees N-40 degrees N), slightly undersaturated between 30 degrees N and 10 degrees S and again close to equilibrium between 20 degrees S and 50 degrees S. Y-HCH has reached phase equilibrium in the North Atlantic as alpha-HCH, but the surface waters of the tropical and southern Atlantic were strongly undersaturated with y-HCH, especially between 30 degrees N and 20 degrees S. These findings are significantly different from two earlier estimates around 1990 as a result of global emission changes within the past decade. Therefore, we investigated the time trend of the HCHs in the surface waters of the Atlantic between 50 degrees N and 60 degrees S on the basis of archived samples taken in 1987-1997 and those from 1999. A decrease of alpha-HCH by a factor of approximately 4 is observed at all sampling locations. No decrease of gamma-HCH occurred between 30 degrees N and 30 degrees S, but there was a decrease in the North Atlantic, North Sea, and in the South Atlantic south of 40 degrees S. The constant level of gamma-HCH in the tropical Atlantic confirms the conclusion that the tropical Atlantic acts as a sink for y-HCH at present time. The measured alpha-HCH seawater concentrations were compared

  7. Trends in screen time on week and weekend days in a representative sample of Southern Brazil students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Adair S; Silva, Kelly S; Barbosa Filho, Valter C; Bezerra, Jorge; de Oliveira, Elusa S A; Nahas, Markus V

    2014-12-01

    Economic and technological improvements can help increase screen time use among adolescents, but evidence in developing countries is scarce. The aim of this study was to examine changes in TV watching and computer/video game use patterns on week and weekend days after a decade (2001 and 2011), among students in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A comparative analysis of two cross-sectional surveys that included 5 028 and 6 529 students in 2001 and 2011, respectively, aged 15-19 years. The screen time use indicators were self-reported. 95% Confidence intervals were used to compare the prevalence rates. All analyses were separated by gender. After a decade, there was a significant increase in computer/video game use. Inversely, a significant reduction in TV watching was observed, with a similar magnitude to the change in computer/video game use. The worst trends were identified on weekend days. The decrease in TV watching after a decade appears to be compensated by the increase in computer/video game use, both in boys and girls. Interventions are needed to reduce the negative impact of technological improvements in the lifestyles of young people, especially on weekend days. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Increasing Short-Stay Unplanned Hospital Admissions among Children in England; Time Trends Analysis ’97–‘06

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Sonia; Bottle, Alex; Gilbert, Ruth; Sharland, Mike

    2009-01-01

    Background Timely care by general practitioners in the community keeps children out of hospital and provides better continuity of care. Yet in the UK, access to primary care has diminished since 2004 when changes in general practitioners' contracts enabled them to ‘opt out’ of providing out-of-hours care and since then unplanned pediatric hospital admission rates have escalated, particularly through emergency departments. We hypothesised that any increase in isolated short stay admissions for childhood illness might reflect failure to manage these cases in the community over a 10 year period spanning these changes. Methods and Findings We conducted a population based time trends study of major causes of hospital admission in children 2 days. By 2006, 67.3% of all unplanned admissions were isolated short stays <2 days. The increases in admission rates were greater for common non-infectious than infectious causes of admissions. Conclusions Short stay unplanned hospital admission rates in young children in England have increased substantially in recent years and are not accounted for by reductions in length of in-hospital stay. The majority are isolated short stay admissions for minor illness episodes that could be better managed by primary care in the community and may be evidence of a failure of primary care services. PMID:19829695

  9. Trends over time in the incidence of congenital anophthalmia, microphthalmia and orbital malformation in England: database study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmasena, Aruna; Keenan, Tiarnan; Goldacre, Raph; Hall, Nick; Goldacre, Michael J

    2017-06-01

    To study trends over time in the incidence of congenital anophthalmia, microphthalmia and orbital malformations in England, along with changes in hospital admission rates for these conditions. Using English National Hospital Episode Statistics (1999-2011), the annual rate of hospital admissions related to anophthalmia, microphthalmia and congenital malformations of orbit/lacrimal apparatus was calculated per 100 000 infants. The records were person-linked, which enabled patients' 'first record' rates to be calculated as proxies for incidence. Similar analyses on pre-1999 datasets were also undertaken for microphthalmia. There was no systematic increase or decrease over time in the incidence of these conditions, but there was some fluctuation from year to year. The incidence of congenital anophthalmia ranged from 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.0) per 100 000 infants in 1999 to 0.4 (0 to 1.3) in 2011. The annual incidence of congenital microphthalmia was 10.8 (8.2 to 13.5) in 1999 and 10.0 (7.6 to 12.4) in 2011. The annual incidence of congenital orbital/lacrimal malformations was 0.5 (0 to 1.1) in 1999 and 0.7 (0 to 1.4) in 2011. Including multiple admissions per person, admission rates for microphthalmia showed a linear increase over time from 1999. The earlier data for microphthalmia indicated an increase in admission rates, but no change in incidence, from 1971 to 2011. The incidence of these conditions has remained stable in England in recent years. Although the incidence of microphthalmia was stable, hospital admission rates for it increased over time reflecting an increase in multiple admissions per affected person. These data may be useful for planning service provision. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. The protective influence of family connectedness, ethnic identity, and ethnic engagement for New Zealand Ma̅ori adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Jaimee; Jose, Paul E

    2014-06-01

    The present study examined the associations among family connectedness, ethnic identity, and ethnic engagement on changes in well-being over time for the understudied population of Ma̅ori (indigenous New Zealand) youth. Data were collected as part of a longitudinal study of youth connectedness in New Zealand using self-report measures at 3 measurement occasions separated by 1 year each. Participants in the current study were 431 self-identified Ma̅ori (ages 10-15 years at Time 1). As expected, the variables of family connectedness, ethnic identity, and well-being were all positively related to each other. Results of a latent growth curve model showed that, following normative trends for adolescents of this age, well-being diminished over time for Ma̅ori youth; however, high levels of family connectedness were found to mitigate this general decline in well-being over time. Furthermore, in a longitudinal path analysis, ethnic engagement was found to exert a positive indirect effect on residualized Time 3 well-being through Time 2 ethnic identity. These findings indicate that the quality of family relationships and affiliation with one's ethnic group are important predictors of positive adjustment for Ma̅ori youth over time. These results are discussed in the context of positive youth development for ethnic minority and indigenous youth. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Seismic Monitoring Prior to and During DFDP-2 Drilling, Alpine Fault, New Zealand: Matched-Filter Detection Testing and the Real-Time Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, C. M.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Townend, J.

    2015-12-01

    In preparation for the second stage of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) and as part of related research projects, borehole and surface seismic stations were installed near the intended DFDP-2 drill-site in the Whataroa Valley from late 2008. The final four borehole stations were installed within 1.2 km of the drill-site in early 2013 to provide near-field observations of any seismicity that occurred during drilling and thus provide input into operational decision-making processes if required. The basis for making operational decisions in response to any detected seismicity had been established as part of a safety review conducted in early 2014 and was implemented using a "traffic light" system, a communications plan, and other operational documents. Continuous real-time earthquake monitoring took place throughout the drilling period, between September and late December 2014, and involved a team of up to 15 seismologists working in shifts near the drill-site and overseas. Prior to drilling, records from 55 local earthquakes and 14 quarry blasts were used as master templates in a matched-filter detection algorithm to test the capabilities of the seismic network for detecting seismicity near the drill site. The newly detected microseismicity was clustered near the DFDP-1 drill site at Gaunt Creek, 7.4 km southwest of DFDP-2. Relocations of these detected events provide more information about the fault geometry in this area. Although no detectable seismicity occurred within 5 km of the drill site during the drilling period, the region is capable of generating earthquakes that would have required an operational response had they occurred while drilling was underway (including a M2.9 event northwest of Gaunt Creek on 15 August 2014). The largest event to occur while drilling was underway was of M4.5 and occurred approximately 40 km east of the DFDP-2 drill site. In this presentation, we summarize the setup and operations of the seismic network and discuss key

  12. Health promotion in primary and secondary schools in Denmark: time trends and associations with schools' and students' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Krølner, Rikke; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Diderichsen, Finn

    2015-02-07

    Schools are important arenas for interventions among children as health promoting initiatives in childhood is expected to have substantial influence on health and well-being in adulthood. In countries with compulsory school attention, all children could potentially benefit from health promotion at the school level regardless of socioeconomic status or other background factors. The first aim was to elucidate time trends in the number and types of school health promoting activities by describing the number and type of health promoting activities in primary and secondary schools in Denmark. The second aim was to investigate which characteristics of schools and students that are associated with participation in many (≥3) versus few (0-2) health promoting activities during the preceding 2-3 years. We used cross-sectional data from the 2006- and 2010-survey of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study. The headmasters answered questions about the school's participation in health promoting activities and about school size, proportion of ethnic minorities, school facilities available for health promoting activities, competing problems and resources at the school and in the neighborhood. Students provided information about their health-related behavior and exposure to bullying which was aggregated to the school level. A total of 74 schools were available for analyses in 2006 and 69 in 2010. We used chi-square test, t-test, and binary logistic regression to analyze time trends and differences between schools engaging in many versus few health promoting activities. The percentage of schools participating in ≥3 health promoting activities was 63% in 2006 and 61% in 2010. Also the mean number of health promoting activities was similar (3.14 vs. 3.07). The activities most frequently targeted physical activity (73% and 85%) and bullying (78% and 67%). Schools' participation in anti-smoking activities was significantly higher in 2006 compared with 2010 (46% vs. 29

  13. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

  14. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  15. Performing Manaaki and New Zealand Refugee Theatre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazou, Rand T.

    2018-01-01

    In September 2015, and in response to the Syrian refugee crisis, there were widespread calls in New Zealand urging the Government to raise its annual Refugee Quota. Maori Party co-leader Marama Fox argued that New Zealand could afford to take on more refugees as part of its global citizenship and suggested that New Zealand's policy might be shaped…

  16. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  17. Trends in Overall Mortality, and Timing and Cause of Death among Extremely Preterm Infants near the Limit of Viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Sein; Ahn, So Yoon; Park, Won Soon

    2017-01-01

    Objective To investigate the trends in mortality, as well as in the timing and cause of death, among extremely preterm infants at the limit of viability, and thus to identify the clinical factors that contribute to decreased mortality. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 382 infants born at 23–26 weeks’ gestation; 124 of the infants were born between 2001 and 2005 (period I) and 258 were born between 2006 and 2011 (period II). We stratified the infants into two subgroups–“23–24 weeks” and “25–26 weeks”–and retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and mortality in each group, as well as the timing and cause of death. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to identify the clinical factors associated with mortality. Results The overall mortality rate in period II was 16.7% (43/258), which was significantly lower than that in period I (30.6%; 38/124). For overall cause of death, there were significantly fewer deaths due to sepsis (2.4% [6/258] vs. 8.1% [10/124], respectively) and air-leak syndrome (0.8% [2/258] vs. 4.8% (6/124), respectively) during period II than during period I. Among the clinical factors of time period, 1-and 5-min Apgar score, antenatal steroid identified significant by univariate analyses. 5-min Apgar score and antenatal steroid use were significantly associated with mortality in multivariate analyses. Conclusion Improved mortality rate attributable to fewer deaths due to sepsis and air leak syndrome in the infants with 23–26 weeks’ gestation was associated with higher 5-minute Apgar score and more antenatal steroid use. PMID:28114330

  18. Timing of maternal death: Levels, trends, and ecological correlates using sibling data from 34 sub-Saharan African countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Merdad

    Full Text Available Millennium Development Goal 5 has not been universally achieved, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding whether maternal deaths occur during pregnancy, childbirth, or puerperium is important to effectively plan maternal health programs and allocate resources. Our main research objectives are to (1 describe the proportions and rates of mortality for the antepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum periods; (2 document how these trends vary by sub-region; and (3 investigate ecological correlations between these rates and maternal care interventions. We used data from the Demographic and Health Survey program, which comprises 84 surveys from 34 sub-Saharan African countries conducted between 1990 and 2014. We calculated age-standardized maternal mortality rates and time-specific maternal mortality rates and proportions, and we assessed correlations with maternal care coverage. We found high levels of maternal mortality in all three periods. Time-specific maternal mortality rates varied by country and region, with some showing an orderly decline in all three periods and others exhibiting alarming increases in antepartum and postpartum mortality. Ecological analysis showed that antenatal care coverage was significantly associated with low antepartum mortality, whereas the presence of a skilled attendant at childbirth was significantly associated with low postpartum mortality. In sub-Saharan Africa, maternal deaths occur at high rates in all three risk periods, and vary substantially by country and region. The provision of maternal care is a predictor of time-specific maternal mortality. These results confirm the need for country-specific interventions during the continuum of care to achieve the global commitment to eliminating preventable maternal mortality.

  19. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  20. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  1. Mortality related to tuberculosis-HIV/AIDS co-infection in Brazil, 2000-2011: epidemiological patterns and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricélia da Silveira Lima

    Full Text Available Abstract: Co-infection of tuberculosis (TB-HIV/AIDS is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. This study describes epidemiological patterns and time trends of mortality related to TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection. Based on mortality data from 2000-2011 (almost 12.5 million deaths, 19,815 deaths related to co-infection were analyzed. The average age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.97 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. The highest mortality rates were found among males, those in economically productive age groups, black race/color and residents of the South region. There was a significant reduction in the mortality coefficient at the national level (annual average percent change: -1.7%; 95%CI: -2.4; -1.0, with different patterns among regions: increases in the North, Northeast and Central regions, a reduction in the Southeast and a stabilization in the South. The strategic integration of TB-HIV/AIDS control programmes is fundamental to reduce the burden of mortality related to co-infection in Brazil.

  2. Child Mortality In The US And 19 OECD Comparator Nations: A 50-Year Time-Trend Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakrar, Ashish P; Forrest, Alexandra D; Maltenfort, Mitchell G; Forrest, Christopher B

    2018-01-01

    The United States has poorer child health outcomes than other wealthy nations despite greater per capita spending on health care for children. To better understand this phenomenon, we examined mortality trends for the US and nineteen comparator nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for children ages 0-19 from 1961 to 2010 using publicly available data. While child mortality progressively declined across all countries, mortality in the US has been higher than in peer nations since the 1980s. From 2001 to 2010 the risk of death in the US was 76 percent greater for infants and 57 percent greater for children ages 1-19. During this decade, children ages 15-19 were eighty-two times more likely to die from gun homicide in the US. Over the fifty-year study period, the lagging US performance amounted to over 600,000 excess deaths. Policy interventions should focus on infants and on children ages 15-19, the two age groups with the greatest disparities, by addressing perinatal causes of death, automobile accidents, and assaults by firearm.

  3. Acute hepatitis A, B and C but not D is still prevalent in Mongolia: a time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatarkhuu, Oidov; Lee, Hye Won; George, Jacob; Munkh-Orshikh, Dashchirev; Enkhtuvshin, Baasankhuu; Ariunaa, Sosorbaram; Eslam, Mohammed; Ahn, Sang Hoon; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Kim, Do Young

    2017-06-01

    Mongolia has one of the highest hepatitis A, C, B and D infection incidences worldwide. We sought to investigate changes in the proportion of acute viral hepatitis types in Mongolia over the last decade. The cohort comprised 546 consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis from January 2012 to December 2014 in Ulaanbaatar Hospital, Mongolia. A time trend analysis investigating the change in proportion of acute hepatitis A virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection among the cohort with respect to a previous published study was undertaken. Acute hepatitis A, B and C was diagnosed in 50.9%, 26.2% and 6.0% of the cohort. Notably, 16.8% of the cohort had a dual infection. The etiologies of acute viral hepatitis were varied by age groups. The most common cause of acute viral hepatitis among 2-19 year olds was hepatitis A, HBV and superinfection with HDV among 20-40 year olds, and HCV among 40-49 year olds. Patients with more than one hepatitis virus infection were significantly older, more likely to be male and had a higher prevalence of all risk factors for disease acquisition. These patients also had more severe liver disease at presentation compared to those with mono-infection. Acute viral hepatitis is still prevalent in Mongolia. Thus, the need for proper infection control is increasing in this country.

  4. Driving under the influence among frequent ecstasy consumers in Australia: trends over time and the role of risk perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Allison Jane; Bruno, Raimondo; Dietze, Paul; Butler, Kerryn; Burns, Lucy

    2014-11-01

    Driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol and illicit drugs is a serious road safety concern. This research aimed to examine trends in DUI across time and changes in attitudes towards the risks (crash and legal) associated with DUI among regular ecstasy users (REU) interviewed in Australia. Participants were regular (at least monthly) ecstasy users surveyed in 2007 (n=573) or 2011 (n=429) who had driven a car in the last six months. Face to face interviews comprised questions about recent engagement of DUI and roadside breath (alcohol) and saliva (drug) testing. Participants also reported the risk of crash and of being apprehended by police if DUI of alcohol, cannabis, ecstasy, and methamphetamine. There were significant reductions in DUI of psychostimulants (ecstasy, methamphetamine, cocaine, LSD) but not alcohol or cannabis between 2007 and 2011. This was accompanied by increased experience of roadside saliva testing and increases in crash and legal risk perceptions for ecstasy and methamphetamine, but not alcohol or cannabis. When the relationship between DUI and risk variables was examined, low crash risk perceptions were associated with DUI of all substances and low legal risk perceptions were associated with DUI of ecstasy. The observed reduction in DUI of psychostimulants among frequent ecstasy consumers may be related to increased risk awareness stemming from educational campaigns and the introduction of saliva testing on Australian roads. Such countermeasures may be less effective in relation to deterring or changing attitudes towards DUI of cannabis and alcohol among this group. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends of phytoplankton characteristics and their communities in pre- and post-liming time in Lake Orta (1984-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierisa PANZANI

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an assessment of the changing properties of Lake Orta phytoplankton in the period 1984-1998, which includes the large-scale liming carried out in the lake in 1989 and 1990. The phytoplankton is analysed first in its general properties (abundance, biovolume, chlorophyll-a concentration, average cell size, diversity by means of time courses of the mentioned variables based on monthly data through the entire period, and by correlations between the same variables. Moreover, through clustering techniques, the evolution of the species composition has been studied, showing the gradual decrease of chlorophytes after the liming and the noticeable increase of the diatom population, both as biovolume and diversity. Although the assemblage of the dominant species still mirrors the presence of some residual toxic compounds into the lake water, in the most recent period the evolution of the algal populations showed a clear trend towards a species assemblage more similar to those observed in the other deep italian subalpine lakes. After the improving of the chemical environment, the main abiotic factor that in the next years could play a major role in modifying the species assemblage is probably the phosphorus supply, whose in-lake concentration is low, despite the high annual load from the basin. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the phosphorus dynamics represent the basis to make reliable hypotheses about the future evolution of the phytoplankton assemblage.

  6. Impact analysis of the time trend of TBR and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket for CFETR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Qin, E-mail: zengqin@ustc.edu.cn; Chen, Hongli; Lv, Zhongliang; Pan, Lei; Zhang, Haoran; Shi, Wei

    2017-01-15

    Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR) is a test tokamak reactor to bridge the gap between ITER and future fusion power plants and to demonstrate generation of fusion power in China. In fusion power plants, tritium is generated from the reaction of neutron and Lithium. One of the missions of CFETR is the full cycle of tritium self-sufficiency. For the mission, a Helium Cooled Solid Breeder blanket (HCSB) was proposed for CFETR and its conceptual design has been carried out. In order to assess the capacity of the tritium breeding and irradiation damage of first wall of the HCSB blanket during the 8 years’ engineering test stage, this paper presents the time trend of TBR analysis and irradiation damage assessment of HCSB blanket based on the three-dimensional (3D) neutronics model which is created by McCad. In the 3D neutronics model, the outboard blanket on equatorial plane is described based on the detailed 3D engineering model. The calculations were performed by MCNP and FISPACT with FENDL/2.1 data library. The impact analysis of the thickness of coolant plates (CP) and the structural material content in CPs to the TBR is assessment.

  7. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

    2017-02-14

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

  8. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

  9. Impact of the global financial crisis on low birth weight in Portugal: a time-trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kana, Musa Abubakar; Correia, Sofia; Peleteiro, Barbara; Severo, Milton; Barros, Henrique

    2017-01-01

    The 2007-2008 global financial crisis had adverse consequences on population health of affected European countries. Few contemporary studies have studied its effect on perinatal indicators with long-lasting influence on adult health. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the impact of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis on low birth weight (LBW) in Portugal. Data on 2 045 155 singleton births of 1995-2014 were obtained from Statistics Portugal. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify the years in which changes in LBW trends occurred, and to estimate the annual per cent changes (APC). LBW risk by time period expressed as prevalence ratios were computed using the Poisson regression. Contextual changes in sociodemographic and economic factors were provided by their trends. The joinpoint analysis identified 3 distinct periods (2 jointpoints) with different APC in LBW, corresponding to 1995-1999 (APC=4.4; 95% CI 3.2 to 5.6), 2000-2006 (APC=0.1; 95% CI -050 to 0.7) and 2007-2014 (APC=1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0). For non-Portuguese, it was, respectively, 1995-1999 (APC=1.4; 95% CI -3.9 to 7.0%), 2000-2007 (APC=-4.2; 95% CI -6.4 to -2.0) and 2008-2014 (APC=3.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 5.5). Compared with 1995-1999, all specific maternal characteristics had a 10-15% increase in LBW risk in 2000-2006 and a 20-25% increase in 2007-2014, except among migrants, for which LBW risk remained lower than in 1995-1999 but increased after the crisis. The increasing LBW risk coincides with a deceleration in gross domestic product growth rate, reduction in health expenditure, social protection allocation on family/children support and sickness. The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was associated with a significant increase in LBW, particularly among infants of non-Portuguese mothers. We recommend strengthening social policies aimed at maternity protection for vulnerable mothers and health system maintenance of social equity in perinatal healthcare.

  10. Constraints on the creation of a HIMU-Like isotopic reservoir beneath New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Meer, Quinten; Waight, Tod Earle; Scott, James

    2013-01-01

    The New Zealand microcontinent (Zealandia) formed as the active eastern margin of Gondwana. Upon cessation of subduction at ~110 Ma, extension led to opening of the Tasman Sea at 82 Ma, preceded by the formation of metamorphic core complexes, the opening and filling of halfgraben structures...... and the intrusion of mafic dikes (~88 to 68 Ma). Subsequently, Zealandia has been punctuated by volumetrically minor, intermittent yet widespread intraplate magmatism from ~100 Ma through to recent times. This magmatism has typical OIB-like trace element abundances and radiogenic isotope compositions that trend....... The variably diluted HIMU signature is interpreted to be the result of mixing between depleted mantle bearing a HIMU component with an Enriched Mantle or continental crust component. New geochemical and isotopic analyses suggest the dike swarms also have an OIB-like chemistry. Initial Pb isotopic compositions...

  11. Time-trends, Predictors and Outcome of Emergency Department Utilization for Gout: A Nationwide U.S. Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jasvinder A.; Yu, Shaohua

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess gout-related emergency department (ED) utilization/charges and discharge disposition. Methods We used the U.S. National ED Sample (NEDS) data to examine the time-trends in total ED visits and charges and ED-related hospitalizations with gout as the primary diagnosis. We assessed multivariable-adjusted predictors of ED charges and hospitalization for gout-related visits using the 2012 NEDS data. Results There were 180,789, 201,044 and 205,152 ED visits in years 2009, 2010 and 2012 with gout as the primary diagnosis, with total ED charges of $195, $239 and $287 million, respectively; these accounted for 0.14-0.16% of all ED visits. Mean/median 2012 ED charges/visit were $1,398/$956. Of all gout-related ED visits, 7.7% were admitted to the hospital in 2012. Mean/median length of hospital stay was 3.9/2.6 days and mean/median inpatient charge/admission was $22,066/$15,912 in 2012. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, older age, female gender, highest income quartile, being uninsured, metropolitan residence, Western U.S. hospital location, heart disease, renal failure, congestive heart failure (CHF), hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with higher ED charges. Older age, Northeast location, Metropolitan teaching hospital, higher income quartile, heart disease, renal failure, CHF, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, and osteoarthritis were associated with higher odds where as self-pay insurance status was associated with lower odds of hospitalization following an ED visit for gout. Conclusions Absolute ED utilization and charges for gout increased over time, but relative utilization remained stable. Modifiable comorbidity factors associated with higher gout-related utilization should be targeted to reduce morbidity and healthcare utilization. PMID:27134260

  12. Trends in leisure time and work-related physical activity in the Spanish working population, 1987-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, César

    2012-01-01

    To analyze time trends in the prevalence of leisure time (LTPA) and work-related (WRPA) physical activity between 1987 and 2006 in the Spanish working population. We analyzed data taken from the Spanish National Health Surveys for 1987 (n = 29,647), 1993 (n = 20,707), 1995-1997 (n = 12,800), 2001 (n = 21,058), 2003 (n = 21,650), and 2006 (n = 29,478). The main variables were LTPA and WRPA in working adults aged 18-64 years old. We analyzed sociodemographic characteristics, self-perceived health status, lifestyle habits and associated comorbidities using multivariate logistic regression models. The prevalences of LTPA and WRPA were lower in women than in men (p women; OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.02-1.31 for men) and WRPA (OR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.38-2.19 for women; OR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.44-1.91 for men) significantly increased from 1987 to 2006. In both genders, the variables associated with a higher likelihood of practicing LTPA were greater age, higher educational level and being an ex- or non-smoker, while negative predictors included being married, worse self-perceived health, and obesity. Factors that increased the probability of reporting WRPA were being married, worse self-rated health status, and sleeping > 8h per day. The only factor that reduced the probability of reporting WRPA was being an ex- or non-smoker. We found an increase in LTPA and WRPA in the last 20 years in the Spanish working population. Several factors were associated with a higher or lower likelihood of practicing LTPA or WRPA in this population. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. Repairing Organisational Legitimacy : the Case of the New Zealand Police

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant Samkin

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper illustrates how the New Zealand Police use non-financial annual report disclosures in response toadverse media publicity. This longitudinal case study spans the reporting periods ending 30 June 2000through to 30 June 2007. It involves a detailed examination of the narrative disclosures and images containedin the annual reports, including the Commissioner’s Overview and the Outcome Reports during this time.Three controversial items covered by the media were traced through the annual reports to establish whetherthe New Zealand Police use image repair discourse supplemented by semiotics in non-financial annual reportdisclosures to repair organisational legitimacy. The analysis found that non-financial disclosures together withimage repair discourse strategies were used by the New Zealand Police, a public sector agency, to repairorganisational legitimacy. This paper provides a valuable contribution to researchers and practitioners as itextends the understanding of how public sector agencies use non-financial annual report disclosures.

  14. Adventure tourism and adventure sports injury: the New Zealand experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Tim A; Page, Stephen J; Macky, Keith A

    2007-11-01

    The primary aims of this study were to establish a client injury baseline for the New Zealand adventure tourism and adventure sport sector, and to examine patterns and trends in claims for injury during participation in adventure activities. Content analysis of narrative text data for compensated injuries occurring in a place for recreation and sport over a 12-month period produced over 15,000 cases involving adventure tourism and adventure sport. As found in previous studies in New Zealand, highest claim counts were observed for activities that are often undertaken independently, rather than commercially. Horse riding, tramping, surfing and mountain biking were found to have highest claim counts, while hang gliding/paragliding/parasailing and jet boating injuries had highest claim costs, suggesting greatest injury severity. Highest claim incidence was observed for horse riding, with female claimants over-represented for this activity. Younger male claimants comprised the largest proportion of adventure injuries, and falls were the most common injury mechanism.

  15. Drug-free workplace programmes: New Zealand perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Susan

    2008-01-30

    New Zealand (NZ) companies have been introducing Drug & Alcohol Free Workplace Policies and Programmes, which include testing, since 1992. Most "safety-critical" industry sectors are now embracing drug and alcohol testing as part of comprehensive programmes which also have a strong focus on education and rehabilitation. Prison Inmate testing was also introduced in 1998. Lawful drug testing in NZ should be conducted to the strict medico-legal requirements of the Australian/New Zealand Standard, AS/NZS 4308:2001 "Procedures for the collection, detection and quantitation of drugs of abuse in urine." This paper gives an overview of the NZ experience, highlighting the mix of testing options employed, the industry sector trends, the categories of drugs misused, the influence of significant Employment Court Judgements, proposed changes to the AS/NZS 4308(2006), and current oral fluid research projects.

  16. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  17. Time trends in socio-economic inequalities for women and men with disabilities in Australia: evidence of persisting inequalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Anne M; Krnjacki, Lauren; Beer, Andrew; Lamontagne, Anthony D; Bentley, Rebecca

    2013-08-29

    The socio-economic circumstances and health of people with disabilities has been relatively ignored in public health research, policy and practice in Australia and internationally. This is despite emerging evidence that the socio-economic circumstances that people with disabilities live in contributes to their poorer health. Compared to other developed countries, Australians with disabilities are more likely to live in disadvantaged circumstances, despite being an economically prosperous country; it is therefore likely that the socio-economic disadvantage experienced by Australians with disabilities makes a significant contribution to their health. Despite the importance of this issue Australia does not routinely monitor the socio-economic inequalities for people with disabilities. This paper addresses this gap by describing time trends in socio-economic conditions for Australians with and without disabilities according to the severity of the disability and sex. Cross-sectional analyses of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers were carried out at three time points (1998, 2003 and 2009) to estimate the proportions of women and men (aged between 25 and 64 years) who were living on low incomes, had not completed year 12, were not in paid work, living in private rental and experiencing multiple disadvantage (three or more of the indicators). People with disabilities are less likely to have completed year 12, be in paid work and are more likely to be living on low incomes and experiencing multiple disadvantage. These conditions worsened with increasing severity of disability and increased or persisted over time, with most of the increase between 1998 and 2003. While women with milder disabilities tended to fare worse than men, the proportions were similar for those with moderate and severe/profound disabilities. People with disabilities experience high levels of socio-economic disadvantage which has increased or persisted over time

  18. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in the elderly: five-year follow-up of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casado-Pérez, Carmen; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-las-Peñas, Cesar; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; López-de-Andrés, Ana; Jimenez-Trujillo, Ma Isabel; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the trends in the practice of leisure time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h, during the years 2006-2011, in elderly Spanish people. Observational study, retrospective analysis of Spanish National Health Surveys. We analysed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 2006 (n=30,072) and 2011 (n=21,007), through self-reported information. The number of subjects aged ≥65 years included in the current study was n=5756 in 2006 (19.14%) and n=4617 in 2011 (21.97%). We included responses from adults aged 65 years and older. The main variables included leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. We analysed socio-demographic characteristics, individuals' self-rated health status, lifestyle habits, co-morbid conditions and disability using multivariable logistic regression models. The total number of subjects was 10,373 (6076 women, 4297 men). The probability of self-reported capacity was significantly higher in 2006 than in 2011 for leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h for both sexes (women: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-5.55; OR 2.50, 95%IC 1.99-3.14; OR 1.04, 95%IC 1.01-1.07; men: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-2.55; OR 2.01, 95%IC 1.40-2.89; OR 1.05, 95%IC 1.0-1.1) respectively. Both sexes were associated with a significantly lower probability of performing leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. Additionally, those over 80 years of age, on average, showed a poor or very poor perception of their health and presented with some type of disability. A decrease in the proportion of respondents who self-reported undertaking leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h was observed in the Spanish population of over 65 years between 2006 and 2011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. TAG Oil hunting elephants in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    Calgary-based TAG Oil is an exploration company that manages 4.1 million acres of major producing oil and gas fields in New Zealand. The enormous Maui field, with 4 tcf of natural gas in place, has dominated the gas market in New Zealand by meeting nearly 90 per cent of the country's energy demand at costs much lower than world prices. However, the maturing field is in decline and will cease production by 2008. New gas field discoveries will only meet 60 per cent of the country's energy requirements for 5 additional years. Unless new large reserves of gas are discovered, the supply and demand situation will get worse. Lead time to place new production on-stream requires 5 to 10 years, which creates a large supply gap over the next decade. Public resistance to coal-fired power plants, new hydroelectric dams and nuclear power has left the country with no viable alternative to natural gas. TAG Oil has taken this unique opportunity to create value when gas demand is at its maximum and energy alternatives are at a minimum. This paper presented 8 reasons why New Zealand is a good place for petroleum investment. Most exploration has occurred in the Taranaki Basin, where only 130 exploration wells have been drilled. The rest of the sedimentary basins are essentially unexplored, although many exhibit oil seeps and have hydrocarbon potential. In 1998, an onshore gas discovery was made on the East Coast Basin. Sub-commercial discoveries have also been made in the offshore Canterbury and Great South basins. TAG Oil is focusing on shallow oil and gas pools in the Miocene reservoirs at Taranaki, as well as on deeper gas prospects in Tariki and Kapuni Sands. One of the challenges was a shortage of drilling rigs, so TAG is having a rig built in Calgary and shipped south. 2 figs

  20. Tenuous Affair: Environmental and Outdoor Education in Aotearoa New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, David; Straker, Jo

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between outdoor education and environmental education in Aotearoa New Zealand has undergone many changes since formal education began in early colonial times. Discussion draws from qualitative doctoral research undertaken by the authors that investigated education for sustainability in outdoor education and how meaning is ascribed…

  1. Intrapersonal Factors in New Zealand School Leadership Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notman, Ross

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to share New Zealand findings from the International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP) which relate to intrapersonal dimensions of leadership that promote principals' sustained success over time. Design/methodology/approach: Multi-site case study methods were used to describe the ongoing success…

  2. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years' experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-04-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Trend analysis of GIMMS and MODIS NDVI time series for establishing a land degradation neutrality national baseline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gichenje, Helene; Godinho, Sergio

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is a key global environment and development problem that is recognized as a priority by the international development community. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by the global community in 2015, and include a goal related to land degradation and the accompanying target to achieve a land degradation-neutral (LDN) world by 2030. The LDN concept encompasses two joint actions of reducing the rate of degradation and increasing the rate of restoration. Using Kenya as the study area, this study aims to develop and test a spatially explicit methodology for assessing and monitoring the operationalization of a land degradation neutrality scheme at the national level. Time series analysis is applied to Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite data records, based on the hypothesis that the resulting NDVI residual trend would enable successful detection of changes in vegetation photosynthetic capacity and thus serve as a proxy for land degradation and regeneration processes. Two NDVI data sets are used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of degraded and regenerated areas: the long term coarse resolution (8km, 1982-2015) third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g data record; and the shorter-term finer resolution (250m, 2001-2015) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived NDVI data record. Climate data (rainfall, temperature and soil moisture) are used to separate areas of human-induced vegetation productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Further, weekly vegetation health (VH) indexes (4km, 1982-2015) developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are assessed as indicators for early detection and monitoring of land degradation by estimating vegetation stress (moisture, thermal and combined conditions).

  4. Factors influencing junior doctors' choices of future specialty: trends over time and demographics based on results from UK national surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Fay; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael J

    2015-10-01

    To study trends in factors influencing junior doctors' choice of future specialty. Respondents were asked whether each of 15 factors had a great deal of influence on their career choice, a little influence or no influence on it. Percentages are reported of those who specified that a factor had a great deal of influence on their career choice. UK. A total of 15,765 UK-trained doctors who graduated between 1999 and 2012. Questions about career choices and factors which may have influenced those choices, in particular comparing doctors who qualified in 2008-2012 with those who qualified in 1999-2002. Enthusiasm for and commitment to the specialty was a greater influence on career choice in the 2008-2012 qualifiers (81%) than those of 1999-2002 (64%), as was consideration of their domestic circumstances (43% compared with 20%). Prospects for promotion were less important to recent cohorts (16%) than older cohorts (21%), as were financial prospects (respectively, 10% and 14%). Domestic circumstances and working hours were considered more important, and financial prospects less important, by women than men. Inclination before medical school was rated as important by 41% of doctors who were over 30 years old, compared with 13% of doctors who were under 21, at the time of starting medical school. The increasing importance of both domestic circumstances and enthusiasm for their specialty choice in recent cohorts suggest that today's young doctors prize both work-life balance and personal fulfilment at work more highly than did their predecessors. The differences in motivations of older and younger generations of doctors, men and women, and doctors who start medical school relatively late are worthy of note. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  5. Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Störmer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

  6. Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

    2018-01-01

    This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  8. Acute upper GI bleeding: Did anything change? Time trend analysis of incidence and outcome of acute upper GI bleeding between 1993/1994 and 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leerdam, M. E.; Vreeburg, E. M.; Rauws, E. A. J.; Geraedts, A. A. M.; Tijssen, J. G. P.; Reitsma, J. B.; Tytgat, G. N. J.

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine recent time trends in incidence and outcome of upper GI bleeding. METHODS: Prospective data collection on all patients presenting with acute upper GI bleeding from a defined geographical area in the period 1993/1994 and 2000. RESULTS: Incidence

  9. Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Brandt

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

  10. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

    2009-09-18

    The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  11. Partial diagenetic overprint of late jurassic belemnites from New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ullmann, Clemens Vinzenz; Campbell, Hamish J.; Frei, Robert

    2013-01-01

    δ7Li values become more positive with progressive alteration. The direction and magnitude of the trends in the geochemical record indicate that one main phase of alteration that occurred in the Late Cretaceous caused most of the diagenetic signature in the calcite. Despite relatively deep burial......The preservation potential and trends of alteration of many isotopic systems (e.g. Li, Mg, Ca) that are measured in fossil carbonates are little explored, yet extensive paleoenvironmental interpretations have been made on the basis of these records. Here we present a geochemical dataset for a Late...... Jurassic (~153 Ma) belemnite (Belemnopsis sp.) from New Zealand that has been partially overprinted by alteration. We report the physical pathways and settings of alteration, the resulting elemental and isotopic trends including δ7Li values and Li/Ca ratios, and assess whether remnants of the primary shell...

  12. Foreign investment: policies and effects on the petroleum industry in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tindill, P.

    1995-01-01

    The theme of this Conference is ''The Post Maui Challenge - Investment and Development Opportunities''. In order to ensure the development and exploitation of petroleum discoveries in New Zealand, considerable capital will be required, particularly from overseas. This paper briefly reviews the Government's foreign investment policies and procedures, and highlights some trends. (Author)

  13. Child Poverty in New Zealand: Why It Matters and How It Can Be Reduced

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boston, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    A combination of policy changes and wider socio-economic trends led to a dramatic increase in child poverty in New Zealand during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Higher rates of child poverty have now become embedded in the system and show little sign of resolving themselves. For a country which once took pride in being comparatively egalitarian…

  14. Seismic isolation in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skinner, R.I.; Robinson, W.H.; McVerry, G.H.

    1989-01-01

    Bridges, buildings, and industrial equipment can be given increased protection from earthquake damage by limiting the earthquake attack through seismic isolation. A broad summary of the seismic responses of base-isolated structures is of considerable assistance for their preliminary design. Seismic isolation as already used in New Zealand consists of a flexible base or support combined with some form of energy-dissipating device, usually involving the hysteretic working of steel or lead. This paper presents examples of the New Zealand experience, where seismic isolation has been used for 42 bridges, 3 buildings, a tall chimney, and high-voltage capacitor banks. Additional seismic response factors, which may be important for nuclear power plants, are also discussed briefly

  15. The Perceived Benefits of Apps by Construction Professionals in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Liu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The construction sector is a key driver of economic growth in New Zealand; however, its productivity is still considered to be low. Prior research has suggested that information and communication technology (ICT can help enhance efficiency and productivity. However, there is little research on the use of mobile technologies by New Zealand construction workforce. This paper reports findings of an exploratory study with the objective of examining the perceived benefits regarding uptake of apps in New Zealand construction sector. Using self-administered questionnaire survey, feedback was received from the major construction trade and professional organisations in New Zealand. Survey data was analyzed using descriptive, one-sample t-test, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and structural equation modeling. Results showed that iPhone and Android phone currently dominate the smartphone market in New Zealand construction industry. The top three application areas are site photos, health and safety reporting and timekeeping. The benefits of mobile apps were widely confirmed by the construction professionals. The benefit of “better client relationship management and satisfaction” has substantial correlation with overall productivity improvement and best predictor of the overall productivity improvement. These findings provide a starting point for further research aimed at improving the uptake and full leveraging of mobile technologies to improve the dwindling productivity trend in New Zealand construction industry.

  16. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  17. The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

  18. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years′ experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). This is a study on changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology in a large series of cervical cancer treated in Sweden during a 90-year period. It also includes an historical review about the development of

  19. Long-term Measurements of Summer-time Ozone at the Walnut Grove Tower - Understanding Trends in the Boundary Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A.; Di, P.; Mims, D.; Avise, J.; DaMassa, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

    2015-12-01

    The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has been monitoring boundary layer ozone at the Walnut Grove Tower (WGT) since 1996 for investigating regional transport and vertical profile. Walnut Grove is located between Sacramento and Stockton, CA in the Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta. Sampling inlets are positioned at 30-ft, 400-ft, 800-ft, 1200-ft and 1600-ft levels of the 2000-ft tower, which is one of the tallest monitoring towers in the Western US. Ozone, ambient temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are simultaneously measured at each level, and reported as hourly averages. The current study included analyses of available ozone and corresponding meteorological data for the months of June - September from 1996 - 2014 with objectives to: 1) explore trends and inter-annual variability of ozone, 2) examine any correlations between ozone and meteorological parameters, 3) understand interactions of ozone measured at various levels, and 4) assess how well a regulatory state-of-the-science air quality model such as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) captures observation. Daily 1-hr maximum ozone has been consistently decreasing during the 1996 - 2014 period at a rate of ~1 ppb per year. This indicates that CARB's measures to control ambient ozone have been effective over the past years. Evolution of the vertical profile throughout the day shows that ozone is fairly homogeneously mixed between 1 - 5 pm, when mixing height typically reaches the maximum. Ozone at 30-ft shows the greatest variability because of its proximity to the ground and emissions sources - rises faster during morning hours (7 - 10 am) and declines more rapidly during evening hours (7 - 10 pm) compared to other levels. Air masses reaching the tower are predominantly southwesterly (247 - 257 deg.) at the bottom, and southwesterly to slightly northwesterly (254 - 302 deg.) at top levels. Daily 1-hr maximum ozone was negatively correlated with wind speed (i.e. ozone was high under

  20. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years′ experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). This is a study on changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology in a large series of cervical cancer treated in Sweden during a 90-year period. It also includes an historical review about the development

  1. Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts: mortality trends of asbestos-related neoplasms after long time since first exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Daniela; Chellini, Elisabetta; Merler, Enzo; Pavone, Venere; Silvestri, Stefano; Miligi, Lucia; Gorini, Giuseppe; Bressan, Vittoria; Girardi, Paolo; Ancona, Laura; Romeo, Elisa; Luberto, Ferdinando; Sala, Orietta; Scarnato, Corrado; Menegozzo, Simona; Oddone, Enrico; Tunesi, Sara; Perticaroli, Patrizia; Pettinari, Aldo; Cuccaro, Francesco; Mattioli, Stefano; Baldassarre, Antonio; Barone-Adesi, Francesco; Cena, Tiziana; Legittimo, Patrizia; Marinaccio, Alessandro; Mirabelli, Dario; Musti, Marina; Pirastu, Roberta; Ranucci, Alessandra; Magnani, Corrado

    2017-12-01

    Asbestos is a known human carcinogen, with evidence for malignant mesothelioma (MM), cancers of lung, ovary, larynx and possibly other organs. MM rates are predicted to increase with a power of time since first exposure (TSFE), but the possible long-term attenuation of the trend is debated. The asbestos ban enforced in Italy in 1992 gives an opportunity to measure long-term cancer risk in formerly exposed workers. Pool of 43 previously studied Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos cement, rolling stock, shipbuilding), with mortality follow-up updated to 2010. SMRs were computed for the 1970â€"2010 period, for the major causes, with consideration of duration and TSFE, using reference rates by age, sex, region and calendar period. The study included 51 801 subjects (5741 women): 55.9% alive, 42.6% died (cause known for 95%) and 1.5% lost to follow-up. Mortality was significantly increased for all deaths (SMR: men: 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06; women: 1.17, 95% CI to 1.12 to 1.22), all malignancies combined (SMR: men: 1.17, 95% CI to 1.14 to 1.20; women: 1.33, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.43), pleural and peritoneal malignancies (SMR: men: 13.28 and 4.77, 95% CI 12.24 to 14.37 and 4.00 to 5.64; women: 28.44 and 6.75, 95% CI 23.83 to 33.69 and 4.70 to 9.39), lung (SMR: men: 1.26, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.31; women: 1.43, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.78) and ovarian cancer (SMR=1.38, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.87) and asbestosis (SMR: men: 300.7, 95% CI 270.7 to 333.2; women: 389.6, 95% CI 290.1 to 512.3). Pleural cancer rate increased during the first 40 years of TSFE and reached a plateau after. The study confirmed the increased risk for cancer of the lung, ovary, pleura and peritoneum but not of the larynx and the digestive tract. Pleural cancer mortality reached a plateau at long TSFE, coherently with recent reports. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  2. Time trends and sex differences in associations between socioeconomic status indicators and overweight-obesity in Mexico (2006-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quezada, Amado D; Lozada-Tequeanes, Ana L

    2015-12-16

    Although the associations between specific socioeconomic status (SES) indicators and overweight or obesity (OWOB) have been studied in different countries, fewer evidence exists for these associations when multiple SES indicators are considered simultaneously. Furthermore, there are few studies investigating time trends in OWOB and their relation with SES in upper-middle income countries, especially for men. The present study contributes to a better understanding of the nature and evolution of the associations between SES indicators and OWOB in the Mexican adult population. We pooled data from the 2006 and 2012 National Health and Nutrition Surveys in Mexico and obtained covariate-adjusted prevalence from a design-based logistic multiple regression model. Covariates included a wealth index, education, occupational status, marital status, and all interactions for each covariate with sex (male/female) and survey year. For men, the association between wealth and OWOB remained positive in general but curvature was more evident in 2012. The wealth-OWOB association in women showed an inverted-U pattern at both years with a positive slope that turned into a negative one as wealth increased. Among women, OWOB prevalence at the college/university education level was approximately 12.0 ± 2.4 (percentage points ± standard error) lower compared with the elementary education level. We did not find differences between educational categories for men in 2006, but in 2012 OWOB tended to be higher among the more educated. The prevalence of obesity in women increased at wealth levels from the middle and upper-middle section of the wealth distributions. Overall OWOB prevalence was near 70 % in 2012 for both sexes. Among Mexican women, the associations between SES indicators and excess body weight were consistent to those found in developed countries. Among Mexican men, higher education was not associated with a lower prevalence of OWOB but the positive association between

  3. Set-up errors analyses in IMRT treatments for nasopharyngeal carcinoma to evaluate time trends, PTV and PRV margins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mongioj, Valeria (Dept. of Medical Physics, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)), e-mail: valeria.mongioj@istitutotumori.mi.it; Orlandi, Ester (Dept. of Radiotherapy, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan (Italy)); Palazzi, Mauro (Dept. of Radiotherapy, A.O. Niguarda Ca' Granda, Milan (Italy)) (and others)

    2011-01-15

    Introduction. The aims of this study were to analyze the systematic and random interfractional set-up errors during Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) in 20 consecutive nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients by means of Electronic Portal Images Device (EPID), to define appropriate Planning Target Volume (PTV) and Planning Risk Volume (PRV) margins, as well as to investigate set-up displacement trend as a function of time during fractionated RT course. Material and methods. Before EPID clinical implementation, an anthropomorphic phantom was shifted intentionally 5 mm to all directions and the EPIs were compared with the digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) to test the system's capability to recognize displacements observed in clinical studies. Then, 578 clinical images were analyzed with a mean of 29 images for each patient. Results. Phantom data showed that the system was able to correct shifts with an accuracy of 1 mm. As regards clinical data, the estimated population systematic errors were 1.3 mm for left-right (L-R), 1 mm for superior-inferior (S-I) and 1.1 mm for anterior-posterior (A-P) directions, respectively. Population random errors were 1.3 mm, 1.5 mm and 1.3 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P directions, respectively. PTV margin was at least 3.4, 3 and 3.2 mm for L-R, S-I and A-P direction, respectively. PRV margins for brainstem and spinal cord were 2.3, 2 and 2.1 mm and 3.8, 3.5 and 3.2 mm for L-R, A-P and S-I directions, respectively. Set-up error displacements showed no significant changes as the therapy progressed (p>0.05), although displacements >3 mm were found more frequently when severe weight loss or tumor nodal shrinkage occurred. Discussion. These results enable us to choose margins that guarantee with sufficient accuracy the coverage of PTVs and organs at risk sparing. Collected data confirmed the need for a strict check of patient position reproducibility in case of anatomical changes

  4. Time trends in social class mortality: differentials in the Netherlands, 1820-1920: an assessment based on indirect estimation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Jennissen, R.; Mandemakers, K.

    2009-01-01

    The question whether socioeconomic status gradients in adult mortality have changed over a broad historical period has become an important political and theoretical issue but is hard to test. In this article we study long-term trends in social inequality in adult mortality by using data for 2 (of

  5. Trends and projections of vehicle crash related fatalities and injuries in Northwest Gondar, Ethiopia: A time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: The numbers of lives lost and disabilities due to vehicle crashes indicated an upward trend in the last decade showing future burden in terms of societal and economic costs threatening the lives of many individuals. Surveillance systems that could enable to monitor patterns of vehicle crashes with preventive strategies must be established.

  6. Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

    2015-05-01

    Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  7. New Zealand faces energy problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    New Zealand's known reserves of petroleum are rapidly depleting and yet, with an expanding economy, overall energy demand is expected to grow by 1.4 per cent per annum over the next 30 years. The difficulties centre on New Zealand's dependence on natural gas. Built up over the last 15-20 years, gas has become a key component in electricity generation, transport fuels (both as compressed natural gas and the synthesis of gasoline), and in the manufacture of petrochemicals as well as its use as a domestic and industrial fuel. But known reserves are limited. Latest assessments of economically recoverable reserves, albeit conservative, suggest that indigenous gas supply will last until about 2016. Competition among the major users is expected to begin to push up market prices by 2005, and at higher prices some of the current applications will simply stop. It is suggested, for instance, that the synfuels and petrochemical plants are unlikely to operate after 2008. Other gas customers will continue by becoming more energy efficient and some, depending on environmental pressures, will shift to coal, fuel oil and alternative sources like geothermal power. But perhaps the most interesting outcome -particularly for gas rich countries like Australia - is the possibility of New Zealand importing natural gas during the first decades of the new century in the form of liquefied natural gas. (author)

  8. Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

  9. Factors associated with the decline in suicide by pesticide poisoning in Taiwan: a time trend analysis, 1987-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Eddleston, Michael; Konradsen, Flemming; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lin, Jin-Jia; Gunnell, David

    2012-07-01

    Pesticide self-poisoning accounts for one-third of suicides worldwide, but few studies have investigated the national epidemiology of pesticide suicide in countries where it is a commonly used method. We investigated trends in pesticide suicide, and factors associated with such trends, in Taiwan, a rapidly developing East Asian country. We conducted an ecological study using graphical approaches and Spearman's correlation coefficients to examine trends in pesticide suicide (1987-2010) in Taiwan in relation to pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticides, the proportion of the workforce involved in agriculture and unemployment. We compared pesticide products banned by the Taiwanese government with products that remained on the market and pesticides that accounted for the most poisoning deaths in Taiwan. Age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide showed a 67% reduction from 7.7 per 100,000 (42% of all suicides) in 1987 to 2.5 per 100,000 (12% of all suicides) in 2010, in contrast to a 69% increase in suicide rates by other methods. Pesticide poisoning was the most commonly used method of suicide in 1987 but had become the third most common method by 2010. The reduction was paralleled by a 66% fall in the workforce involved in agriculture but there was no strong evidence for its association with trends in pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticide products or unemployment. The bans mostly post-dated the decline in pesticide suicides; furthermore, they did not include products (e.g. paraquat) that accounted for most deaths and were mainly restricted to selected high-strength formulated products whilst their equivalent low-strength products were not banned. Access to pesticides, indicated by the size of agricultural workforce, appears to influence trends in pesticide suicide in Taiwan. Targeted bans on pesticides should focus on those products that account for most deaths.

  10. Comparison of cancer survival in New Zealand and Australia, 2006-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Phyu S; Elwood, J Mark; Stevanovic, Vladimir

    2014-12-19

    Previous studies have shown substantially higher mortality rates from cancer in New Zealand compared to Australia, but these studies have not included data on patient survival. This study compares the survival of cancer patients diagnosed in 2006-10 in the whole populations of New Zealand and Australia. Identical period survival methods were used to calculate relative survival ratios for all cancers combined, and for 18 cancers each accounting for more than 50 deaths per year in New Zealand, from 1 to 10 years from diagnosis. Cancer survival was lower in New Zealand, with 5-year relative survival being 4.2% lower in women, and 3.8% lower in men for all cancers combined. Of 18 cancers, 14 showed lower survival in New Zealand; the exceptions, with similar survival in each country, being melanoma, myeloma, mesothelioma, and cervical cancer. For most cancers, the differences in survival were maximum at 1 year after diagnosis, becoming smaller later; however, for breast cancer, the survival difference increased with time after diagnosis. The lower survival in New Zealand, and the higher mortality rates shown earlier, suggest that further improvements in recognition, diagnosis, and treatment of cancer in New Zealand should be possible. As the survival differences are seen soon after diagnosis, issues of early management in primary care and time intervals to diagnosis and treatment may be particularly important.

  11. Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deckert Andreas

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. Methods We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Results Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0% and Russia (-0.6%. Conclusions The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

  12. Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, Andreas; Winkler, Volker; Paltiel, Ari; Razum, Oliver; Becher, Heiko

    2010-08-17

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0%) and Russia (-0.6%). The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

  13. Time trends in the incidence of work-related mental ill-health and musculoskeletal disorders in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carder, Melanie; McNamee, Roseanne; Turner, Susan; Hodgson, John Timothy; Holland, Fiona; Agius, Raymond M

    2013-05-01

    To determine UK trends (from 1996 to 2009) in incidence of work-related mental ill-health and musculoskeletal disorders, for all industry as well as for health and social care employees. Second, to investigate whether there may have been a recent shift from a physical to psychological perspective in how patients present their illness by comparing reporting trends for back pain and 'other work stress'. Multilevel models were used to investigate changes in incidence of work-related illness, as diagnosed by specialist physicians. The dependent variable comprised case reports to The Health and Occupation Research network. Comparisons were made between medical specialties, industry (health and social care vs all other employees), gender and diagnosis. Trends for Occupational Physicians' (OP) reporting mental ill-health (average annual increase +3.7% (95% CI +2.2% to +5.2%)) differed significantly (phealth and social care employees. A fall in incidence of musculoskeletal disorders for OPs of -5.8% (95% CI -7.3% to -4.3%) and rheumatologists' reporting -6.6% (95% CI -8.3% to -4.8%) was found, with little variation by gender or industry. Within health and social care, an increase in incidence of 'other work stress' was accompanied by a similar decrease in 'spine/back pain'. The evidence presented is consistent with a shift in the presentation of ill-health from a physical to psychological perspective, although changes in hazards, prevention measures and physician awareness should also be considered as explanations.

  14. New Zealand Freshwater Management: Changing Policy for a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouse, H. L.; Norton, N.

    2014-12-01

    Fresh water is essential to New Zealand's economic, environmental, cultural and social well-being. In line with global trends, New Zealand's freshwater resources are under pressure from increased abstraction and changes in land-use which contribute contaminants to our freshwater systems. Recent central government policy reform introduces greater national direction and guidance, to bring about a step-change in freshwater management. An existing national policy for freshwater management introduced in 2011 requires regional authorities to produce freshwater management plans containing clear freshwater objectives (measurable statements about the desired environmental state for water bodies) and associated limits to resource use (such as environmental flows and quantity allocation limits, and loads of contaminants to be discharged). These plans must integrate water quantity and quality management, consider climate change, and incorporate tangata whenua (New Zealand māori) roles and interests. In recent (2014) national policy amendments, the regional authorities are also required to implement national 'bottom-line' standards for certain attributes of the system to be managed; undertake accounting for all water takes and all sources of contaminants; and to develop and implement their plans in a collaborative way with communities. This rapid change in national policy has necessitated a new way of working for authorities tasked with implementation; many obstacles lie in their path. The scientific methods required to help set water quantity limits are well established, but water quality methods are less so. Collaborative processes have well documented benefits but also raise many challenges, particularly for the communication of complex and often uncertain scientific information. This paper provides background on the national policy changes and offers some early lessons learned by the regional authorities implementing collaborative freshwater management in New Zealand.

  15. Pre-European Maori fishing at Foxton, Manawatu, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, J.; Leach, F.; Greig, K.; Leach, P.

    2000-01-01

    Fish remains from excavations in four areas of the Foxton archaeological site (S24/3) were analysed. The 4109 identified bones produced a Minimum Mumber of Individuals of 1040 fish from 8 families. The assemblage was dominated by New Zealand snapper (Pagrus auratus, Family Sparidae), which comprised 80% of the total MNI. Kahawai (Arripis trutta, Family Arripidae) contributed 15% and other families only minor amounts. Snapper decreased in abundance and kahawai increased from the lower to the upper layers. The Foxton catch at all periods is different from other assemblages studied from central New Zealand. This partly reflects the local marine environment, which lacks rocky shores and reefs, but we also hypothesise that it is related to warmer surface sea water conditions in Cook Strait in the early phase of the New Zealand prehistoric period. Size frequency diagrams were constructed for snapper and kahawai. It was found that the mean fork length and mean ungutted weight of snapper increased over time. Similar changes have been observed for other species in archaeological sites in New Zealand. (author). 26 refs., 6 figs., 8 tabs

  16. Some prehistory of New Zealand intensive care medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubuhovich, R V

    2009-07-01

    In taking 1960 as the foundation year for the practice of intensive care medicine in New Zealand, this paper briefly looks into the previous two centuries for some interventions in life-threatening conditions. With the help of descriptions in early 19th century journals and books by perceptive observers, the author focuses on some beliefs and practices of the Maori people during pre-European and later times, as well as aspects of medical treatment in New Zealand for early settlers and their descendents. Dr Laurie Gluckman's book Tangiwai has proved a valuable resource for New Zealand's medical history prior to 1860, while the recent publication of his findings from the examination of coroners' records for Auckland, 1841 to 1864, has been helpful. Drowning is highlighted as a common cause of accidental death, and consideration is given to alcohol as a factor. Following the 1893 foundation of the New Zealand Medical Journal, a limited number of its papers which are historically relevant to today's intensive care are explored: topics include tetanus, laryngeal diphtheria, direct cardiac massage, traumatic shock, thiopentone management for fitting and the ventilatory failure due to poliomyelitis.

  17. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  18. Health information technology adoption in New Zealand optometric practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidarian, Ahmadali; Mason, David

    2013-11-01

    Health information technology (HIT) has the potential to fundamentally change the practice of optometry and the relationship between optometrists and patients and to improve clinical outcomes. This paper aims to provide data on how health information technology is currently being used in New Zealand optometric practices. Also this paper aims to explore the potential benefits and barriers to the future adoption of health information technology in New Zealand. One hundred and six New Zealand optometrists were surveyed about their current use of health information technology and about potential benefits and barriers. In addition, 12 semi-structured interviews were carried out with leaders of health information technology in New Zealand optometry. The areas of interest were the current and intended use of HIT, the potential benefits of and barriers to using HIT in optometric offices and the level of investment in health information technology. Nearly all optometrists (98.7 per cent) in New Zealand use computers in their practices and 93.4 per cent of them use a computer in their consulting room. The most commonly used clinical assessment technology in optometric practices in New Zealand was automated perimeter (97.1 per cent), followed by a digital fundus/retinal camera (82.6 per cent) and automated lensometer (62.9 per cent). The pachymeter is the technology that most respondents intended to purchase in the next one to five years (42.6 per cent), followed by a scanning laser ophthalmoscope (36.8 per cent) and corneal topographer (32.9 per cent). The main benefits of using health information technology in optometric practices were improving patient perceptions of ‘state of the art’ practice and providing patients with information and digital images to explain the results of assessment. Barriers to the adoption of HIT included the need for frequent technology upgrades, cost, lack of time for implementation, and training. New Zealand optometrists are using HIT

  19. New Zealand optometrists 2006: demographics, working arrangements and hours worked.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikson, Lesley G; Chamberlain, Kerry; Sangster, Andrew J

    2008-07-01

    Optometry is a regulated health profession in NZ, with limited student places. With 650 registered optometrists in 2005, the optometrist to population ratio was 1 : 6,291 with no apparent national shortage. If optometrists registered in NZ do not actually live there, a workforce shortage is possible. This paper presents findings from the New Zealand Association of Optometrists 2006 workforce survey of members, which aimed to profile the NZ optometric workforce and to explore factors relating to workforce capacity, job stress and future planning. A questionnaire was developed to collect information on employment status, hours worked and gender distribution of optometrists in New Zealand. It was circulated to 530 active members of the NZ Association of Optometrists representing 86 per cent of the available optometrists. Direct comparisons with the Australian optometric workforce numbers were also undertaken. Of the 243 respondents, 129 (53 per cent) were male. The median age of all respondents was 39 years (46 for males and 34 for females) and 75 per cent of the respondents were aged younger than 50 years. Fifty per cent had practised 15 years or less. Ten per cent of respondents had 'time-out' during their career and this was significantly more likely for females. Nearly half the respondents were self-employed (46 per cent) and eight per cent worked as locums. Part-time employees were more likely to be female and males were more likely to be in full-time self-employment. Half the group was under 40 (51 per cent), which accounted for 86 per cent of the full-time salaried arrangements. Those aged 30 to 39 included 52 per cent of the total part-time salaried workers. The average working week was 34 hours for women and 39 hours for men; the median was 40 hours for both groups. In the typical working week, 80 per cent of an optometrist's time was spent consulting with patients and five per cent was patient-related paperwork. The distribution of work arrangements was

  20. Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

  1. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  2. Review of energy use in New Zealand agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D J; McChesney, I G

    1979-01-01

    New Zealand's agricultural system shows a net return of energy at the farm gate, but the ratio of food energy returned to auxiliary energy invested is so small that there is a need to be seriously concerned on two counts. First, the rest of the food production system, comprising processing, distribution and preparation, consumes sufficient additional energy that the overall energy ratio is less than 1:1. Counter to the trend towards increased energy consumption in agriculture will be those savings that may result from the development of animal breeds, crop varieties, and cultural practices that make more efficient use of the solar and auxiliary energy inputs. In all production systems involving the harvesting of biological materials, several critical parameters (energy ratio, energy intensity, energy productivity, and net energy yield) describe energy use. The consideration of these parameters along with socio-economic criteria should be incorporated into planning for the future development of such production systems. The changes which would most favorably alter the food-production system as a whole, i.e., alteration of diet, changes in product mix in favor of grains and pulses, and increased emphasis on genetic research, are unfortunately those least likely to receive attention. Dietary patterns change only slowly, farmers are reluctant to modify traditional methods of farming and to grow new crops, and the development of new breeds of animals and varieties of crops is time-consuming and costly. Nevertheless, such changes will have to be made if the food-production system is to adapt effectively to the challenges ahead.

  3. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  4. Gas in electricity generation [In New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devine, K.

    1995-01-01

    Gas is New Zealand's major thermal fuel for electricity generation. This paper describes what influences the volumes of gas burnt by ECNZ, and forecasts future gas demands for electricity generation. It also reviews the uncertainties associated with these forecasts and likely competition in building new electricity generating stations and outlines the strategy now being formulated to accommodate them. Because ECNZ's generation system is hydro-based, relatively small rapid changes in hydrological conditions can significantly affect the amount of gas used. This situation will change over time with major increases in thermal generation likely to be needed over the next 20 years. However, there are considerable uncertainties on gas supply and electricity demand levels in the long run, which will complicate investment and fuel decisions. (Author)

  5. Challenges of the New Zealand healthcare disaster preparedness prior to the Canterbury earthquakes: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Shaqsi, Sultan; Gauld, Robin; Lovell, Sarah; McBride, David; Al-Kashmiri, Ammar; Al-Harthy, Abdullah

    2013-03-15

    Disasters are a growing global phenomenon. New Zealand has suffered several major disasters in recent times. The state of healthcare disaster preparedness in New Zealand prior to the Canterbury earthquakes is not well documented. To investigate the challenges of the New Zealand healthcare disaster preparedness prior to the Canterbury earthquakes. Semi-structured interviews with emergency planners in all the District Health Boards (DHBs) in New Zealand in the period between January and March 2010. The interview protocol revolved around the domains of emergency planning adopted by the World Health Organization. Seventeen interviews were conducted. The main themes included disinterest of clinical personnel in emergency planning, the need for communication backup, the integration of private services in disaster preparedness, the value of volunteers, the requirement for regular disaster training, and the need to enhance surge capability of the New Zealand healthcare system to respond to disasters. Prior to the Canterbury earthquakes, healthcare disaster preparedness faced multiple challenges. Despite these challenges, New Zealand's healthcare response was adequate. Future preparedness has to consider the lessons learnt from the 2011 earthquakes to improve healthcare disaster planning in New Zealand.

  6. Day of the week lost time occupational injury trends in the US by gender and industry and their implications for work scheduling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogmus, G E

    2007-03-01

    While there is a growing body of research on the impact of work schedules on the risk of occupational injuries, there has been little investigation into the impact that the day of the week might have. The present research was completed to explore day of the week trends, reasons for such trends and the corresponding implications for work scheduling. Data for the number of injuries and illnesses involving days away from work (lost time; LT) in 2004 were provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Safety and Health Statistics. Data from the American Time Use Survey database were used to estimate work hours in 2004. From these two data sources, the rate of LT injuries and illnesses (per 200 000 work hours) by day of the week, industry sector and gender were estimated. The analysis revealed clear differences by day of the week, gender and major industry sector. Sundays had the highest rate overall--nearly 37% higher than the average of the remaining days, Monday to Saturday. Mondays had the next highest rate followed closely by Saturdays. This pattern was not the same for males and females. For males, Mondays had the highest LT rate (27% higher than the average of all other days) with all remaining days having essentially the same rate. For females, Sundays and Saturdays had much higher LT rates--122% and 60% higher, respectively, than the average weekday rate. There were also differences by industry and differences between genders by industry. The present analysis suggests that several factors may be contributing to the weekend and Monday trends observed. Lower-tenured (and younger) workers on the weekends, lower female management/supervision and second jobs on the weekend seem to be contributors to the high Saturday and Sunday LT rates. Differences in day of the week employment by industry did not account for the trends observed. Fraud and overtime also could not be confirmed as contributing to these trends. Monday trends were more complex to explain, with

  7. Variation Trend Analysis of Runoff and Sediment Time Series Based on the R/S Analysis of Simulated Loess Tilled Slopes in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to illustrate the temporal variation of runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes under successive rainfall conditions. Loess tilled slopes with four microtopography types (straight cultivated slope, artificial backhoe, artificial digging, and contour tillage under five slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25° were simulated and a rainfall intensity of 60 mm/h was adopted. The temporal trends of runoff and sediment yield were predicted based on the Rescaled Range (R/S analysis method. The results indicate that the Hurst indices of runoff time series and sediment time series are higher than 0.5, and a long-term positive correlation exists between the future and the past. This means that runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes in the future will have the same trends as in the past. The results obtained by the classical R/S analysis method were the same as those of the modified R/S analysis method. The rationality and reliability of the R/S analysis method were further identified and the method can be used for predicting the trend of runoff and sediment yield. The correlation between the microtopography and the Hurst indices of the runoff and sediment yield time series, as well as between the slopes and the Hurst indices, were tested, and the result was that there was no significant correlation between them. The microtopography and slopes cannot affect the correlation and continuity of runoff and sediment yield time series. This study provides an effective method for predicting variations in the trends of runoff and sediment yield on loess tilled slopes.

  8. Four-year trends in adiposity and its association with hypertension in serial groups of young adult university students in urban Cameroon: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choukem, Simeon-Pierre; Kengne, André-Pascal; Nguefack, Maxime-Leolein; Mboue-Djieka, Yannick; Nebongo, Daniel; Guimezap, Jackson T; Mbanya, Jean Claude

    2017-05-23

    Obesity is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and is growing rapidly globally including in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to assess the trend in adiposity markers in Cameroonian university students, and investigated their associations with hypertension. From 2009 to 2012, we annually measured weight, height, blood pressure, waist (WC) and hip circumferences, and calculated the body mass index (BMI) and other indices of adiposity in consecutive students aged 18 years or above, during their registration. Time-trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated, and their associations with prevalent hypertension investigated. Among the 2726 participants, the overall prevalence of obesity, overweight and obesity combined, and hypertension was 3.5%, 21.0% and 6.3% respectively. From 2009 to 2012, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased in men only, from 13.1% to 20.9% (p-trend = 0.002), whereas prevalent abdominal obesity increased in women only, from 6.5% to 11.7% (p-trend = 0.027). The BMI and the WC were independent predictors of hypertension; each kg/m 2 higher BMI was associated with 11% higher odds of hypertension, and each centimeter higher WC was associated with 9% higher odds of hypertension. Our results show that overweight and obesity are rapidly increasing in this population of young sub-Saharan African adults, and are contributing to an increasing burden of hypertension.

  9. Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Alves de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

  10. Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

    2017-04-01

    A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset

  11. New Zealand's Clyde power station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hatton, J W; Black, J C; Foster, P F

    1987-12-01

    A 100 m-high mass concrete gravity dam, for the generation of 432 MW of power, is under construction at Clyde on the Clutha River in the South Island of New Zealand. A feature of the dam is the provision of a slip joint to allow up to 2 m of movement on the plane of a fault passing through the dam foundation. Details of the dam foundations, seismic design, river channel fault and slip joint, mass concrete, spillway and sluice, powerhouse, and landslide hazard at the site are given. 3 refs.

  12. Location-based HIV behavioural surveillance among MSM in Auckland, New Zealand 2002-2011: condom use stable and more HIV testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxton, Peter J W; Dickson, Nigel P; Hughes, Anthony J

    2014-03-01

    Over the last decade, annual HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSM) in New Zealand increased, then stabilised in 2006 and have not increased further. The aim was to examine trends in behaviours in order to better understand this pattern and inform community-based prevention. From 2002 to 2011, we conducted five repeat cross-sectional behavioural surveillance surveys among MSM at community locations in Auckland (fair day, gay bars, sex-on-site venues; n=6091). Participation was anonymous and self-completed. Recruitment methods were consistent at each round. Overall, the samples became more ethnically diverse and less gay community attached over time. Condom use during anal intercourse was stable across three partnering contexts (casual, current regular fuckbuddy, current regular boyfriend), with a drop among casual contacts in 2011 only. In the 6 months prior to surveys, there was a gradual decline over time in the proportion reporting >20 male partners, an increase in acquiring partners from the internet and increases in engagement in anal intercourse in some partnering contexts. HIV testing in the 12 months prior to surveys rose from 35.1% in 2002 to 50.4% in 2011, mostly from 2008. This first indepth examination of trends in HIV-related behaviours among five consecutive large and diverse samples of MSM in New Zealand does not suggest condom use is declining. However, subtle changes in sexual networks and partnering may be altering the epidemic determinants in this population and increasing exposure.

  13. New Zealand Police and Restorative Justice Philosophy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winfree, L. Thomas, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    In New Zealand, selected sworn police officers called youth aid officers participate in discussions and deliberations concerning the actions required to restore the sense of community balance upset by the actions of juvenile offenders. The author explores a representative sample of all sworn police officers serving in the New Zealand Police,…

  14. Childbearing trends in Iceland, 1982-2013: Fertility timing, quantum, and gender preferences for children in a Nordic context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ari Klængur Jónsson

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Iceland is one of the most gender-equal countries in the world, but one that does not seem to have experienced the same fertility fluctuations as most other countries, following the enhanced role of women in society. Objective: In this study we examine the childbearing trends in Iceland during 1982-2013 by analysing the progressions to parities one, two, and three. We also investigate whether there is evidence of gender preferences for children among Icelandic parents. Methods: Official individual longitudinal register data is used, covering the total female population born in Iceland between 1941 and 1997. The data is analysed by means of event history analysis. Results: We find evidence of tendencies to postpone motherhood during the period, with increases in fertility for women in their 30s and 40s. The propensity to have a second and a third child has not declined; on the contrary, these birth intensities have increased since the mid-1980s. Estimates suggest that Icelandic parents prefer to have daughters. Conclusions: During a period of increased educational attainment and postponed family formation, the resilience of Icelandic fertility is intriguing. Contribution: The study provides the first comprehensive overview of fertility trends in Iceland.

  15. Differences between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón-Moyano, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luis; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

    2016-06-01

    The main risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, a habit that varies according to age and sex. The objective of this study was to explore trends in lung cancer mortality by sex and age from 1980 to 2013 in Spain. We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude, truncated, age-adjusted mortality and age-specific mortality rates were assessed through joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change (APC). Age-adjusted mortality rate significantly increased from 1980 to 1991 among men (APC=3.12%) and significantly decreased between 2001 and 2013 (APC=-1.53%), a similar pattern was observed in age-specific rates. Among women, age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 1989 (APC 1989-1997=1.82%), with the greatest increase observed from 1997 until the end of the study in 2013 (APC=4.41%). Diverging trends in the prevalence of smoking could explain the increase in the rate of lung cancer-related mortality among Spanish women since the early 1990s. Public health policies should be implemented to reduce tobacco consumption in women and halt the increase in lung cancer mortality. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  16. Time Trend of the People lost follow up on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART Services in Nepal: A Epidemiological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh Sathian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The real state about the spread of the HIV epidemic in Nepal is not clear since the details available are on the basis of repeated integrated biological and behavioral surveillance. Objective To study the trends of People lost follow up on ART in future. Material and methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2006 and 2012. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results: Including the constant term from the equation, the quadratic model was the best fit, for the forecasting of People lost follow up on ART. Using quadratic equation, it is estimated that 4331 reported number of People lost follow up on ART will be there in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion: The People lost follow up on ART in Nepal are having an increasing trend. Estimates of the total number of People lost follow up on ART attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy. They can be used for the planning of healthcare services and for contributing to estimates of the future numbers with People lost follow up on ART used for planning health promotion programmes.

  17. Time trends in the levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pine bark, litter, and soil after a forest fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung-Deuk

    2014-02-01

    Forest fires are known as an important natural source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but time trends of PAH levels and patterns in various environmental compartments after forest fires have not been thoroughly studied yet. In this study, 16 US-EPA priority PAHs were analyzed for pine bark, litter, and soil samples collected one, three, five, and seven months after a forest fire in Pohang, South Korea. At the first sampling event, the highest levels of ∑16 PAHs were measured for the three types of samples (pine bark: 5,920 ng/g, litter: 1,540 ng/g, and soil: 133 ng/g). Thereafter, there were apparent decreasing trends in PAH levels; the control samples showed the lowest levels (pine bark: 124 ng/g, litter: 75 ng/g, and soil: 26 ng/g). The levels of PAHs in the litter and soil samples normalized by organic carbon (OC) fractions also showed decreasing trends, indicating a direct influence of the forest fire. Among the 16 target PAHs, naphthalene was a dominant compound for all types of samples. Light PAHs with 2-4 rings significantly contributed to the total concentration, and their contribution decreased in the course of time. Runoff by heavy precipitation, evaporation, and degradation of PAHs in the summer were probably the main reasons for the observed time trends. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratio also supported that the forest fire was indeed an important source of PAHs in the study area. © 2013.

  18. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  19. Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lindsey P; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

    2013-04-11

    It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965-1966 and 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007-2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001). US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990's. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only slightly more than half spend any time cooking on a given

  20. Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. Methods This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. Results The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965–1966 and 2007–2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007–2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007–2008 (p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990’s. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only

  1. Effect of resinite on the combustion of New Zealand subbituminous coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benfell, K.E.; Beamish, B.B.; Rodgers, K.A. [University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW (Australia). Dept. of Geology

    1997-09-01

    This paper shows that Oligocene resin from New Zealand`s Rotowaro coalfield displays DTA and DTG traces similar to those of other fossil resins. It modifies the thermal behaviour of low rank coal raising the peak combustion temperature and lowering its rate of combustion; this behaviour may be common among liptinite macerals. The effect is not additive and unlike other coal constituents the resinite component does not deteriorate with time.

  2. Do Japanese Work Shorter Hours than before?: Measuring Trends in Market Work and Leisure Using 1976-2006 Japanese Time-Use Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Kuroda, Sachiko

    2009-01-01

    Using Japanese time-use data from the Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA), this paper measures trends in average hours worked (market work) and leisure for Japanese over the past three decades. OECD reports at least a 15 percent decline in market work for Japan since the 1970s. However, holding demographic changes constant, we found that market work per week increased from the 1970s until mid 1980s, and has been relatively stable for the last two decades for both male and female...

  3. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for hepatitis A in Greece (1999–2013): Assessment of the impact of universal infant immunization in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaevangelou, V.; Alexopoulou, Z.; Hadjichristodoulou, C.; Kourlamba, G.; Katsioulis, A.; Theodoridou, K.; Spoulou, V.; Theodoridou, M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Hepatitis A vaccine was introduced in the Greek National Immunization Program in 2008. To estimate possible impact of the universal vaccination implementation, time trends of hospitalizations for hepatitis A at the Infectious Diseases Unit of a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Athens during 1999–2013 were analyzed. Hepatitis A hospitalizations were recorded from the discharge database and were expressed as frequencies and rate of annual departmental hospitalizations. Time series analysis (ARIMA) was used to explore trends and the impact of the vaccination. Moreover, changes in patient age, population group distribution and the duration of hospitalization were also examined. Hepatitis A hospitalizations rate significantly decreased between pre-vaccination (1999–2008) and post-vaccination (2009–2013) era from 50.5 to 20.8/1000 hospitalizations (p = 0.005). A 3-year periodicity and a trend of reduction on hepatitis A hospitalizations rates across years were noted. Roma children had significant higher rates of hepatitis A hospitalization, followed by immigrant children. Importantly, possibly due to preceding vaccine availability with considerable uptake in private market and unvaccinated group/pockets of children (Roma), overall vaccination effect was less apparent when compared to data from other countries that implemented universal vaccination. No significant change in patient age, population group distribution, or duration of hospitalization was observed. High risk groups such as Roma children should be targeted for vaccination to reduce future outbreaks. PMID:27141813

  4. Antimicrobial susceptibility of anaerobic bacteria in New Zealand: 1999-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Sally A; Shore, Keith P; Paviour, Susan D; Holland, David; Morris, Arthur J

    2006-05-01

    Routine susceptibility testing of all anaerobic organisms is not advocated, but it is useful for laboratories to test periodically for anaerobic organisms and provide local susceptibility data to guide therapy. This study reports the national trend of antibiotic susceptibility of clinically significant anaerobes in New Zealand. Clinical isolates were tested using standardized methods against a range of antibiotics commonly used to treat anaerobic infections. Susceptibility was determined using NCCLS criteria. The change in susceptibility trends between this study and earlier studies was measured by comparing the geometric mean of the MIC. A total of 364 anaerobes were tested. Penicillin had poor activity against Bacteroides spp., Prevotella spp., Eubacterium spp., Clostridium tertium and Veillonella spp. In general, Fusobacterium spp., Bacteroides ureolyticus, Propionibacterium spp., Clostridium perfringens and anaerobic streptococci isolates, with the exception of Peptostreptococcus anaerobius, were penicillin susceptible. Amoxicillin/clavulanate showed good activity against most anaerobes, but resistance was seen with Bacteroides fragilis group and P. anaerobius isolates. Cefoxitin was more active than cefotetan, particularly against non-B. fragilis species, Eubacterium spp. and P. anaerobius. Meropenem and imipenem showed good activity against all anaerobes, with only 2 and 4% of Bacteroides spp., respectively, showing resistance. With the exception of Propionibacterium acnes isolates, which are predictably resistant, metronidazole was active against all anaerobes tested. There has been little change in susceptibility since 1997. Metronidazole, cefoxitin, piperacillin/tazobactam and amoxicillin/clavulanate remain good empirical choices when anaerobes are expected in our setting. No clinically relevant changes in susceptibility over time were found.

  5. New Zealand traffic and local air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irving, Paul; Moncrieff, Ian

    2004-12-01

    Since 1996 the New Zealand Ministry of Transport (MOT) has been investigating the effects of road transport on local air quality. The outcome has been the government's Vehicle Fleet Emissions Control Strategy (VFECS). This is a programme of measures designed to assist with the improvement in local air quality, and especially in the appropriate management of transport sector emissions. Key to the VFECS has been the development of tools to assess and predict the contribution of vehicle emissions to local air pollution, in a given urban situation. Determining how vehicles behave as an emissions source, and more importantly, how the combined traffic flows contribute to the total emissions within a given airshed location was an important element of the programme. The actual emissions output of a vehicle is more than that determined by a certified emission standard, at the point of manufacture. It is the engine technology's general performance capability, in conjunction with the local driving conditions, that determines its actual emissions output. As vehicles are a mobile emissions source, to understand the effect of vehicle technology, it is necessary to work with the average fleet performance, or "fleet-weighted average emissions rate". This is the unit measure of performance of the general traffic flow that could be passing through a given road corridor or network, as an average, over time. The flow composition can be representative of the national fleet population, but also may feature particular vehicle types in a given locality, thereby have a different emissions 'signature'. A summary of the range of work that has been completed as part of the VFECS programme is provided. The NZ Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model and the derived data set available in the NZ Traffic Emission Rates provide a significant step forward in the consistent analysis of practical, sustainable vehicle emissions policy and air-quality management in New Zealand.

  6. The road to success. Long-term prognosis for persons living with HIV in Denmark - time trends and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Nicolai

    2016-01-01

    compared temporal trends in quality and quantity of ART introduction in Den-mark and Greenland. Despite similar levels of health worker education and economic resources, ART implementation and mortality decline in Greenland lacked several years behind Denmark. The study reminded us that although economy...... another 39 years, only 12.2 years less than a person in a matched general population cohort would survive. With improved survival and declining HIV-related co-morbidity, non-HIV related co-morbidity became a more visible contributor to the health status of persons with HIV. We assessed the impact of non......-HIV related comorbidity acquired before the person became infected with HIV. We found that 32% of the observed mortality in our cohort was due to HCV and co-morbidities measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index, 13% corresponded to the background mortality in the population, and that only 55...

  7. Time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in East China Seas: Response to the booming of PBDE pollution industry in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Lin, Tian; Hu, Limin; Feng, Jialiang; Guo, Zhigang

    2016-01-01

    The East China Seas (ECSs) are the receptors of the land-based persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) mainly from China through atmospheric deposition driven by the East Asian winter monsoon and fluvial discharge (e.g., Yangtze River and Yellow River), making the offshore sediments to be a good proxy to reconstruct history of those pollutants in China. In this work, four well-placed sediment cores were extracted from the mud areas in the ECSs, and the (210)Pb-dated cores were analyzed to yield historical concentration profiles of PBDEs in the area. The results showed that there was a persistent increase from 1970s and almost no clear sign in the decline of PBDEs until recently in China. More importantly, there was a faster increase of PBDEs from 1990s in China; while this period was just shown as gradually leveling off or even declining trends in developed countries. The persistently increasing trend of PBDEs in China since 1990s could be largely due to the booming of the manufacturing industry and unexpectedly transfer of PBDE pollution from developed countries to China. Besides, the relative high concentrations and fluxes of PBDEs in the core from coastal ECS located near a well-known electrical/electronic waste (e-waste) recycling area suggests an important contribution of PBDE emissions from recycling centers of e-waste in China. Although efforts in environmental monitoring of PBDE contamination have been substantially increased over the last decade, China is still lagging behind in terms of nationwide regulation of PBDE usage and treatment of disposal PBDE-containing products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An Increase in the Incidence of Infective Endocarditis in England since 2008: A secular trend interrupted time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M.; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) administered prior to invasive procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis (IE) has historically been the focus of IE prevention. Recent changes in AP guidelines in the US and Europe have substantially reduced the numbers for whom AP is recommended. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommended complete cessation of AP in March 2008. We report the impact of these guidelines on AP prescribing; in addition, IE incidence was examined following the introduction of the guidelines. Methods We analyzed English AP prescribing data from January 2004 to March 2013 and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of IE from January 2000 to March 2013. Findings AP prescribing rates fell dramatically after introduction of the NICE guidance (10,935 prescriptions/month vs. 2,236 prescriptions/month, p<0·0001). Commencing in March 2008, there was also a significant increase in the number of IE cases/month (0·11 cases/10million/month, CI 0·05–0·16, p<0·0001) above the projected historical trend. By March 2013, there were an additional 35 cases/month than would have been expected if the previous trend had continued. This increase in IE incidence was significant for both ‘high-risk’ and ‘lower-risk’ individuals. Interpretation Although our data do not establish a causal relationship, there has been a substantial reduction in AP prescribing and a significant increase in IE incidence in England since introduction of the NICE guidelines in 2008. Funding Different aspects of this study were supported by Heart Research UK and Simplyhealth [Grant Ref: RG2632/13/14] and NIDCR R03 grant [Ref: 1R03DE023092-01] from the National Institutes for Health. PMID:25467569

  9. Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

    2013-01-01

    Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

  10. The chronology of Moncks Cave, Canterbury, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacomb, C.

    2008-01-01

    Moncks Cave is a key site in understanding the nature and course of change to Maori culture during the early period of New Zealand prehistory because of the range of both perishable and non-perishable artefacts found there in 1889. Understood to have been completely excavated at that time, the interpretation of the material culture of the site has been rendered difficult by the absence of chronological or stratigraphic provenance data. Recent investigations at Moncks Cave revealed several intact cultural deposits, including both faunal and artefactual remains. Eleven radiocarbon determinations on marine shell suggest that the cave was occupied some time between the mid-fourteenth and mid-fifteenth centuries AD. Although the dates cannot be directly correlated with any particular artefact, the results have important implications for the interpretation of the place of the site and its contents as a whole in the context of the New Zealand prehistoric sequence. (author). 22 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  11. Could Trends in Time Children Spend with Parents Help Explain the Black-White Gap in Human Capital? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard W.

    2017-01-01

    It is widely believed that the time children spend with parents significantly impacts human capital formation. If time varies significantly between black and white children, this may help explain the large racial gap in test scores and wages. In this study, I use data from the American Time Use Survey to examine the patterns in the time black and…

  12. Tobacco tax as a health protecting policy: a brief review of the New Zealand evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Thomson, George

    2005-04-15

    To review the evidence relating to tobacco taxation as a health and equity protecting policy for New Zealand. Searches of Medline, EconLit, ECONbase, Index NZ, and library databases for literature on tobacco taxation. The New Zealand evidence indicates that increases in tobacco prices are associated with decreases in tobacco consumption in the general population over the long term. This finding comes from multiple studies relating to: tobacco supplies released from bond, supermarket tobacco sales, household tobacco expenditure data, trends in smoking prevalence data, and from data on calls to the Quitline service. For the 1988-1998 period, the overall price elasticity of demand for all smoking households was estimated to be such that a 10% price increase would lower demand by 5% to 8%. Two studies are suggestive that increased tobacco affordability is also a risk factor for higher youth smoking rates. There is evidence from two studies that tobacco price increases reduce tobacco consumption in some low-income groups and one other study indicates that tobacco taxation is likely to be providing overall health benefit to low-income New Zealanders. These findings are broadly consistent with the very large body of scientific evidence from other developed countries. There is good evidence that tobacco taxation is associated with reduced tobacco consumption in the New Zealand setting, and some limited evidence for equity benefits from taxation increases. Substantial scope exists for improving tobacco taxation policy in New Zealand to better protect public health and to improve equity.

  13. Mapping long-term changes in savannah crop productivity in Senegal through trend analysis of time-series of remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tøttrup, Christian; Rasmussen, Michael Schultz

    2004-01-01

    Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal......Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal...

  14. 'Mystic fires of Tamaatea' : attempts to creatively rewrite New Zealand's cultural and tectonic past

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goff, J.; Hulme, K.; McFadgen, B.

    2003-01-01

    'Mystic fires of Tamaatea' is the title given to a section of a book entitled 'Tsunami: the underrated hazard' written by Edward Bryant and published by Cambridge University Press in 2001. In it the author links New Zealand evidence for widespread forest destruction and Maori place-names and legends with the 15th century timing of an apparent Tunguska-type meteor impact in the South Island of New Zealand, Chinese, and Japanese meteor sightings, comets, and m ega - tsunamis in Australia. This paper critically reviews the lines of evidence used, and finds no evidence, either Maori or geological, for a 15th century meteor impact in New Zealand. In the book, all Maori place-names have been incorrectly translated, the radiocarbon chronology is incorrect, and there is no consideration of the numerous potential tsunami sources that were active in New Zealand in the 15th century. (author). 49 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Inter-fraction bladder filling variations and time trends for cervical cancer patients assessed with a portable 3-dimensional ultrasound bladder scanner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Rozilawati; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Quint, Sandra; Mens, Jan Willem; Pree, Ilse de; Heijmen, Ben J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Background and Purpose: For cervical cancer patients, bladder filling variations may result in inadequate EBRT target coverage, unless large safety margins are used. For a group of patients who received full bladder instructions, inter-fraction variations and time trends in bladder volume were quantified, and a 3D ultrasound (US) scanner was tested for on-line bladder volume measurements. Methods and materials: For 24 patients, the bladder volume was measured with US at the time of the planning CT scan, and twice weekly during the course of RT. Comparisons of US with planning CT were used to assess the bladder scanner accuracy. Patients were treated in prone on a belly board, EPID images were acquired to correlate set-up errors with bladder filling variations. Results: Measured US and CT bladder volumes were strongly correlated (R = 0.97, slope 1.1 ± 0.1). The population mean bladder volume at planning of 378 ± 209 ml (1 SD) reduced to 109 ± 88 ml (1 SD) in week 6, a reduction by 71% (average reduction 46 ml/week), revealing a large inter-fraction time trend. Intra-patient variation in bladder volume during RT was 168 ml (1 SD) (range 70-266 ml). Rotation around the LR axis was significantly correlated with bladder volume changes. Conclusions: Despite a full bladder instruction, bladder volumes reduced dramatically during treatment, implying large time trends in target position of these patients. The portable US scanner provides a quick and reliable measurement of the bladder volume, which might assist future online treatment adaptation

  16. Palynofacies assemblages reflect sources of organic matter in New Zealand fjords

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prebble, Joseph G.; Hinojosa, Jessica L.; Moy, Christopher M.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding sources and transport pathways of organic carbon in fjord systems is important to quantify carbon cycling in coastal settings. Provenance of surficial sediment organic carbon in Fiordland National Park (southwestern New Zealand) has previously been estimated using a range of techniques, including mixing models derived from stable isotopes and lipid biomarker distributions. Here, we present the first application of palynofacies to explore the sources of particulate organic carbon to five fjords along the SW margin of New Zealand, to further discriminate the provenance of organic carbon in the fjords. We find good correlation between isotopic-and biomarker-derived proxies for organic carbon provenance and our new palynofacies observations. We observe strong down-fjord gradients of decreasing terrestrially derived organic carbon further from the river inflow at fjord heads. Fjords with small catchments and minor fresh water inflow exhibit reversed gradients, indicating that volume of freshwater entering at the fjord head is a primary mechanism to transport particulates down fjord rather than local transport from fjord sides. The palynofacies data also confirmed previously recorded latitudinal trends (i.e. between fjords), of less frequent and more weathered terrestrially derived organic carbon in the southern fjords, consistent with enhanced marine inflow and longer transport times in the southern catchments. Dinocyst assemblages also exhibit a strong latitudinal gradient, with assemblages dominated by heterotrophic forms in the north. In addition to providing support for previous studies, this approach allows finer discrimination of terrestrial organic carbon than previously, for example variation of leaf material. This study demonstrates that visual palynofacies analysis is a valuable tool to pinpoint origins of organic carbon in fjord systems, providing different but complementary information to other proxies.

  17. K-Ar ages of Early Miocene arc-type volcanoes in northern New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayward, B.W.; Black, P.M.; Smith, I.E.M.; Ballance, P.F.; Itaya, T.; Doi, M.; Takagi, M.; Bergman, S.; Adams, C.J.; Herzer, R.H.; Robertson, D.J.

    2001-01-01

    Understanding the temporal and spatial development of the Early Miocene Northland Volcanic Arc is critical to interpreting the patterns of volcanic activity in northern New Zealand through the Late Cenozoic. The northwesterly trending arc is considered to have developed above a southwest-dipping subduction system. The distribution of its constituent eruptive centres is described in terms of an eastern belt that extends along the eastern side of Northland and a complementary broad western belt which includes subaerial and submarine volcanic edifices. Critical examination of all 216 K-Ar ages available, including 180 previously unpublished ages, and their assessment against tectonic, lithostratigraphic, seismic stratigraphic, and biostratigraphic constraints, leads us to deduce a detailed chronology of periods of activity for the various Early (and Middle) Miocene arc-type volcanic complexes and centres of northern New Zealand: Waipoua Shield Volcano Complex (19-18 Ma, Altonian); Kaipara Volcanic Complex (23-16 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Manukau Volcanic Complex (c. 23-15.5 Ma, Waitakian-Clifdenian); North Cape Volcanic Centre (23-18 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Whangaroa Volcanic Complex (22.5-17.5 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Taurikura Volcanic Complex (22-15.5 Ma, Otaian-Clifdenian); Parahaki Dacites (22.5-18 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Kuaotunu Volcanic Complex (18.5-11 Ma, Altonian-Waiauan). In general, volcanic activity does not show geographic migration with time, and the western (25-15.5 Ma) and eastern (23-11 Ma) belts appear to have developed concurrently. (author). 123 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

  18. Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Chung-Ping A

    2015-05-01

    There has been a growing interest in better understanding the trends and determinants of health tourism activities. While much of the expanding literature on health tourism offers theoretical or qualitative discussion, empirical evidences has been lacking. This study employs Canada's outbound health tourism activities as an example to examine the trends in health tourism and its association with changing domestic health care market characteristics. A time-series model that accounts for potential structural changes in the trend is employed to analyze the quarterly health-related travel spending series reported in the Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) during 1970-2010 (n = 156). We identified a structural shift point which marks the start of an accelerated growth of health tourism and a flattened seasonality in such activities. We found that the health tourism activities of Canadian consumers increase when the private investment in medical facilities declines or when the private MPI increases during the years following the structural-change. We discussed the possible linkage of the structural shift to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which went into effect in January, 1995. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Time Trends and Predictors of Abnormal Postoperative Body Temperature in Infants Transported to the Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig Schroeck

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Despite increasing adoption of active warming methods over the recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions on the occurrence of abnormal postoperative temperatures in sick infants. Methods. Preoperative and postoperative temperature readings, patient characteristics, and procedural factors of critically ill infants at a single institution were retrieved retrospectively from June 2006 until May 2014. The primary endpoints were the incidence and trend of postoperative hypothermia and hyperthermia on arrival at the intensive care units. Univariate and adjusted analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with abnormal postoperative temperatures. Results. 2,350 cases were included. 82% were normothermic postoperatively, while hypothermia and hyperthermia each occurred in 9% of cases. During the study period, hypothermia decreased from 24% to 2% (p<0.0001 while hyperthermia remained unchanged (13% in 2006, 8% in 2014, p=0.357. Factors independently associated with hypothermia were higher ASA status (p=0.02, lack of intraoperative convective warming (p<0.001 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Independent associations for postoperative hyperthermia included lower body weight (p=0.01 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Conclusions. We report an increase in postoperative normothermia rates in critically ill infants from 2006 until 2014. Careful monitoring to avoid overcorrection and hyperthermia is recommended.

  20. Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994-2006: findings from Europe and North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molcho, Michal; Craig, Wendy; Due, Pernille; Pickett, William; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Overpeck, Mary

    2009-09-01

    To identify trends over 12 years in the prevalence of bullying and associated victimization among adolescents in North American and European countries. Cross-sectional self-report surveys were obtained from nationally representative samples of 11-15 year old school children in 21 countries in 1993/94 and in 27 countries in each of 1997/98, 2001/02 and 2005/06. Measures included involvement in bullying as either a perpetrator and/or victim. Consistent decreases in the prevalence of bullying were reported between 1993/94 to 2005/06 in most countries. Geographic patterns show consistent decreases in bullying in Western European countries and in most Eastern European countries. An increase or no change in prevalence was evident in almost all English speaking countries participating in the study (England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Canada, but not in the USA). Study findings demonstrated a significant decrease in involvement in bullying behaviour in most participating countries. This is encouraging news for policy-makers and practitioners working in the field of bullying prevention.

  1. Insights from natural history collections: analysing the New Zealand macroalgal flora using herbarium data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Wendy A; Dalen, Jennifer; Neill, Kate F

    2013-01-01

    Herbaria and natural history collections (NHC) are critical to the practice of taxonomy and have potential to serve as sources of data for biodiversity and conservation. They are the repositories of vital reference specimens, enabling species to be studied and their distribution in space and time to be documented and analysed, as well as enabling the development of hypotheses about species relationships. The herbarium of the Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa (WELT) contains scientifically and historically significant marine macroalgal collections, including type specimens, primarily of New Zealand species, as well as valuable exsiccatae from New Zealand and Australia. The herbarium was initiated in 1865 with the establishment of the Colonial Museum and is the only herbarium in New Zealand where there has been consistent expert taxonomic attention to the macroalgae over the past 50 years. We examined 19,422 records of marine macroalgae from around New Zealand collected over the past 164 years housed in WELT, assessing the records in terms of their spatial and temporal coverage as well as their uniqueness and abundance. The data provided an opportunity to review the state of knowledge of the New Zealand macroalgal flora reflected in the collections at WELT, to examine how knowledge of the macroalgal flora has been built over time in terms of the number of collections and the number of species recognised, and identify where there are gaps in the current collections as far as numbers of specimens per taxon, as well as with respect to geographical and seasonal coverage.

  2. Mapping Clearances in Tropical Dry Forests Using Breakpoints, Trend, and Seasonal Components from MODIS Time Series: Does Forest Type Matter?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grogan, Kenneth; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Hostert, Patrick; Verbesselt, Jan; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    Tropical environments present a unique challenge for optical time series analysis, primarily owing to fragmented data availability, persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, little is known of whether the performance of time series change detection is affected by diverse forest

  3. Memory controllers for high-performance and real-time MPSoCs : requirements, architectures, and future trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akesson, K.B.; Huang, Po-Chun; Clermidy, F.; Dutoit, D.; Goossens, K.G.W.; Chang, Yuan-Hao; Kuo, Tei-Wei; Vivet, P.; Wingard, D.

    2011-01-01

    Designing memory controllers for complex real-time and high-performance multi-processor systems-on-chip is challenging, since sufficient capacity and (real-time) performance must be provided in a reliable manner at low cost and with low power consumption. This special session contains four

  4. Hyperomma of New Zealand (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae: Paederinae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schomann, Andrea Maria

    In this project a classical taxonomical revision of the New Zealand species of Hyperomma was conducted, as well as a broader molecular phylogenetic study revolving around this flightless genus, which occurs in Australia and New Zealand only. Seventeen new species were described, two new synonymies....... Additionally, the extinct Cretaceous staphylinid genus Apticax was described connected with a short review on fossil Paederinae and closely related fossils....... found, 8 known species re-described after contemporary standards, and a species inventory with keys to those 25 species and the paederine genera occurring in New Zealand was produced. The genus was placed in the phylogenetic context of its subfamily, Paederinae, for which a robust phylogenetic...

  5. Chrono-nutrition: a review of current evidence from observational studies on global trends in time-of-day of energy intake and its association with obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almoosawi, S; Vingeliene, S; Karagounis, L G; Pot, G K

    2016-11-01

    The importance of the circadian rhythm in regulating human food intake behaviour and metabolism has long been recognised. However, little is known as to how energy intake is distributed over the day in existing populations, and its potential association with obesity. The present review describes global trends in time-of-day of energy intake in the general population based on data from cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity is also summarised. Overall, there were a limited number of cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal cohorts that provided data on time-of-day of energy intake. In the identified studies, a wide variation in time-of-day of energy intake was observed, with patterns of energy distribution varying greatly by country and geographical area. In relation to obesity, eight cross-sectional surveys and two longitudinal cohorts were identified. The association between time-of-day of energy intake and obesity varied widely, with several studies reporting a positive link between evening energy intake and obesity. In conclusion, the current review summarises global trends in time-of-day of energy intake. The large variations across countries and global regions could have important implications to health, emphasising the need to understand the socio-environmental factors guiding such differences in eating patterns. Evidence of the association between time-of-day of energy intake and BMI also varied. Further larger scale collaborations between various countries and regions are needed to sum data from existing surveys and cohorts, and guide our understanding of the role of chrono-nutrition in health.

  6. Socio-demographic correlates of divorce in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, G A

    1988-05-01

    "This paper links data obtained from a one-in-five systematic sample of New Zealand divorce files covering the period 1940-78 with published marriage and birth statistics to examine socio-demographic differentials in divorce rates among couples married between 1939 and 1973. Differentials investigated are those by age at marriage, relative age of bride and groom, marital status prior to marriage, relative marital status of bride and groom, pregnancy status of the wife at marriage, timing of the first birth, religion, country of birth and socioeconomic status. Several findings of overseas studies, such as the special proneness to divorce of very youthful marriages and remarriages following previous divorces, are verified for New Zealand. After controlling for age at marriage, pregnancy does not seem to have directly increased the risk of divorce." excerpt

  7. Spinal Cord Injury due to Tumour or Metastasis in Aragón, Northeastern Spain (1991–2008: Incidence, Time Trends, and Neurological Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maayken Elizabeth Louise van den Berg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Understanding the presentation of spinal cord injury (SCI due to tumours considering population distribution and temporal trends is key to managing SCI health services. This study quantified incidence rates, function scores, and trends of SCI due to tumour or metastasis over an 18-year time period in a defined region in Spain. Methods. A retrospective cohort study included in-and outpatients with nontraumatic SCI due to tumour or metastasis admitted to a metropolitan hospital in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Main outcome measures were crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, tumour location and type, distribution by spinal level, neurological level of injury, and impairment ASIA scores. Results. Primary tumour or metastasis accounted for 32.5% of nontraumatic SCI with an incidence rate of 4.1 per million population. Increasing rates with age and over time were observed. Major pathology groups were intradural-extramedullary masses from which meningiomas and neurinomas accounted for 40%. Lesions were mostly incomplete with predominant ASIA Grade D. Conclusions. Increasing incidence rates of tumour-related SCI over time in the middle-aged and the elderly suggest a growing need for neurooncology health resources in the future.

  8. The Decoupling of