WorldWideScience

Sample records for winter weather patterns

  1. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  2. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  3. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  4. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  5. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  6. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  7. Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Planchon

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray. The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.

  8. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  9. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R

    2016-11-01

    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  10. Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.

    2002-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

  11. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

    2018-03-13

    Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

  12. Travel in adverse winter weather conditions by blind pedestrians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-31

    Winter weather creates many orientation and mobility (O&M) challenges for people who are visually impaired. Getting the cane tip stuck is one of the noticeable challenges when traveling in snow, particularly when the walking surface is covered in dee...

  13. Winter Weather Tips: Understanding Alerts and Staying Safe this Season | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    By Jenna Seiss and Kylie Tomlin, Guest Writers, and Ashley DeVine, Staff Writer Maryland residents face the possibility of dangerous winter weather each year—from icy conditions to frigid temperatures. You may be familiar with the different types of winter weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), but do you know what each alert means?  

  14. Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong

    2012-01-01

    Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)

  15. Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

    2017-07-01

    Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cradden, Lucy C.; McDermott, Frank

    2018-05-01

    Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009–10 and 2010–11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009–10 and 2010–11 winters are examined, and 2010–11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.

  17. Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

    2009-12-01

    Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial

  18. Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe

    2018-06-01

    Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

  19. The impact of winter cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, João; Freire, Elisabete; Almendra, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases shows a seasonal trend that can be associated with cold weather. Portugal is the European country with the highest excess winter mortality, but nevertheless, the relationship between cold weather and health is yet to be assessed. The main aim of this study is to identify the contribution of cold weather to cardiovascular diseases within Portugal. Poisson regression analysis based on generalized additive models was applied to estimate the influence of a human-biometeorological index (PET) on daily hospitalizations for myocardial infarction. The main results revealed a negative effect of cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal. For every degree fall in PET during winter, there was an increase of up to 2.2% (95% CI = 0.9%; 3.3%) in daily hospital admissions. This paper shows the need for public policies that will help minimize or, indeed, prevent exposure to cold. -- Highlights: ► We model the relationship between daily hospitalizations due to myocardial infarctions and cold weather in Portugal. ► We use Physiological Equivalent temperature (PET) as main explanatory variable. ► We adjust the models to confounding factors such as influenza and air pollution. ► Daily hospitalizations increased up to 2.2% per degree fall of PET during winter. ► Exposure to cold weather has a negative impact on human health in Portugal. -- There is an increase of up to 2.2% in daily hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarctions per degree fall of thermal index during the winter months in Portugal

  20. A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

  1. Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

    2017-11-15

    Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royé, D; Taboada, J J; Martí, A; Lorenzo, M N

    2016-04-01

    The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

  3. Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royé, D.; Taboada, J. J.; Martí, A.; Lorenzo, M. N.

    2016-04-01

    The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

  4. Weather regimes in the South American sector and neighbouring oceans during winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solman, S.A.; Menendez, C.G. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA-CONICET/UBA), Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2003-07-01

    We classified 34 years of winter daily 500 hPa geopotential height patterns over the eastern South Pacific-South America-South Atlantic region using the K-means clustering method. We found a significant classification into five weather regimes (WRs) defined as the most frequent large-scale circulation anomalies: WR1 (trough centred downstream of the Drake Passage), WR2 (trough over the SW Pacific and ridge downstream), WR3 (ridge over the SE Pacific and NW-SE trough downstream), WR4 (trough over the SE Pacific and NW-SE ridge downstream) and WR5 (weak ridge to the west of southern South America). We also analysed their persistence and temporal evolution, including transitions between them and development around onsets and breaks of each regime. The preferred transitions, WR1{yields}WR3{yields}WR2{yields}WR4{yields}WR1 and also WR1{yields}WR3{yields}WR2{yields}WR1, suggest the progression of a Rossby wave-like pattern in which each of the regimes resemble the Pacific-South America modes. Significant influence of the WRs on local climate over Argentina was found. The preferred transitions WR1{yields}WR3 and WR3{yields}WR2 induce sustained cold conditions over Patagonia and over northern Argentina, respectively. The most significant change in precipitation frequency is found for WR3, with wetter conditions over all the analysed regions. Finally, the interannual to interdecadal significant variations in the occurrence of these regimes were discussed. WR1 and WR3 are more frequent and WR2 is less frequent during El Nino, and WR2 and WR5 are more frequent and WR1 is less frequent during La Nina. A significant decrease in WR2 and increase of WR4 and WR5 during the 1970s and early 1980s were found. (orig.)

  5. Winter Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safety and Health Program Recommendations It's the Law Poster REGULATIONS Law and Regulations Standard Interpretations Training Requirements ... page requires that javascript be enabled for some elements to function correctly. Please contact the OSHA Directorate ...

  6. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.

    2018-03-01

    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  7. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A; Laird, Neil F

    2018-03-01

    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s -1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s -1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s -1 , or 61 km h -1 . In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  8. Assessment of weather-associated causes of red spruce winter injury and consequences to aboveground carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul G. Schaberg; Brynne E. Lazarus; Gary J. Hawley; Joshua M. Halman; Catherine H. Borer; Christopher F. Hansen

    2011-01-01

    Despite considerable study, it remains uncertain what environmental factors contribute to red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) foliar winter injury and how much this injury influences tree C stores. We used a long-term record of winter injury in a plantation in New Hampshire and conducted stepwise linear regression analyses with local weather and regional...

  9. Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists’ Accidents in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Élise Lépy

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists’ health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2 Methods: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3 Results: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4 Conclusions: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change.

  10. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-01-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  11. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  12. [Activity patterns and foraging behavior of Apis cerana cerana in the urban gardens in winter].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fa-jun; Yang, Qing-qing; Long, Li; Hu, Hong-mei; Duan, Bin; Chen, Wen-nian

    2016-01-01

    Bees and other pollinating insects are the important parts of biodiversity due to their great role in plant reproduction and crop production. To explore the role of city garden in native bees conservation, activity patterns, visiting behaviors and flowering plants with nectar or pollen were recorded in south Sichuan in winter. The results showed that, worker bees (Apis cerana cerana) were active to collect food out hive under suitable weather conditions, the duration of working was long. Peaks of the number of outgoing, entrance and foragers without pollen appeared at 14:00-15:00, and bimodal patterns were observed. While, peak of bees with pollen appeared at 11:00, and a unimodal pattern was observed. Time significantly affected the activity of workers. The workload of honey bees on nectar and pollen collection were different, just less than twenty percent foragers carrying pollen. Temperature and humidity also affected flights of bees to some degree, and bee activities showed similar patterns on different days. However, the activities had diverse characteristics in some time. Though a less number of plants were in flowering, most of them could be utilized by A. cerana cerana, and colonies could effectively get the food resource by behavior adjustment. In addition, visiting activities of bees on the flowers of main garden plants, such as Camellia japonica, showed obvious rhythm. Increasing the flowering plants with nectar and pollen in winter by scientific management of urban gardens would facilitate the creation of suitable habitats for A. cerana cerana and maintaining the wild population.

  13. The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

  14. Winter habitat occurrence patterns of temperate migrant birds in Belize

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, D.K.; Robbins, C.S.; Sauer, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    We used mist nets and point counts to sample bird populations in 61 sites in Belize during January-March of 1987-1991. Sites were classified as forest, second growth, woody agricultural crops (citrus, mango, cacao, and cashew), or non-woody agricultural crops (rice and sugar cane). We evaluated patterns of occurence of wintering temperate migrant bird species in these habitats. Mist net captures of 22 of 31 migrant species differed significantly among habitats. Of these, 13 species were captured more frequently in the agricultural habitats. American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla), Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia), and Magnolia Warbler (Dendroica magnolia) were among the species captured most frequently in woody agricultural habitats; captures of Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas), Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea), and Northern (lcterus galbula) and Orchard orioles (I. spur/anus) were highest in the non-woody agricultural sites. We relate these occurrence patterns to trends in breeding populations in North America. While count data provide a wide picture of winter habitat distribution of migrants, more intensive work is necessary to assess temporal and geographic variation of migrant bird use of agricultural habitats.

  15. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, Josef; Thaler, S.; Schmid, E.; Strauss, F.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Saylan, L.; Çaldag, B.; Caylak, O.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 6 (2013), s. 813-835 ISSN 0021-8596 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : crop models * weather conditions * winter wheat * Austria Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.891, year: 2013

  16. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  17. Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus winter mortality in The Netherlands : The effect of severe weather and food supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Camphuysen, CJ; Ens, B.J.; Heg, Dierik; Hulscher, JB; VanderMeer, J; Smit, CJ

    1996-01-01

    Wintering Oystercatchers in The Netherlands are concentrated in the Wadden Sea (c. 200 000), with substantial numbers in the Delta area (c. 90 000). Only 1% of the total wintering population is normally found along the North Sea coast. Cold-rushes under severe winter conditions lead to a reduction

  18. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  19. Weather daily variation in winter and its effect on behavior and affective states in day-care children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

    2011-05-01

    This study aimed to analyze the impact of winter weather conditions on young children's behavior and affective states by examining a group of 61 children attending day-care centers in Florence (Italy). Participants were 33 males, 28 females and their 11 teachers. The mean age of the children at the beginning of the observation period was 24.1 months. The day-care teachers observed the children's behavioral and emotional states during the morning before their sleeping time and filled in a questionnaire for each baby five times over a winter period of 3 weeks. Air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and solar radiation data were collected every 15 min from a weather station located in the city center of Florence. At the same time, air temperature and relative humidity data were collected in the classroom and in the garden of each day-care center. We used multilevel linear models to evaluate the extent to which children's emotional and behavioral states could be predicted by weather conditions, controlling for child characteristics (gender and age). The data showed that relative humidity and solar radiation were the main predictors of the children's emotional and behavioral states. The outdoor humidity had a significant positive effect on frustration, sadness and aggression; solar radiation had a significant negative effect only on sadness, suggesting that a sunny winter day makes children more cheerful. The results are discussed in term of implications for parents and teachers to improve children's ecological environment.

  20. Determining effects of an all weather logging road on winter woodland caribou habitat use in south-eastern Manitoba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doug W. Schindler

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The Owl Lake boreal woodland caribou population is the most southerly population in Manitoba. It is provincially ranked as a High Conservation Concern Population. Forestry operations exist in the area and there are plans for further forest harvest and renewal. The Happy Lake logging road is the only main access through the Owl Lake winter range. This logging road is currently closed to the public and access is limited to forestry operations during specific times of the year. An integrated forestry/caribou management strategy for the area provides for the maintenance of minimum areas of functional habitat. Habitat quality along the road was compared to habitat quality in the winter core use areas, within the winter range and outside the winter range. To evaluate the extent of functional habitat near the road, we conducted animal location and movement analysis using GPS data collected from January 2002 to March 2006. Habitat quality in the winter range, core use areas and along the road were assessed and found to be similar. Analysis of caribou locations and movement illustrate less use of high quality habitat adjacent to the Happy Lake Road. Loss of functional habitat is suggested to occur within 1 kilometre of the road. This potential loss of functional habitat should be incorporated into integrated forestry and caribou conservation strategies. Road management is recommended to minimize the potential sensory disturbance and associated impacts of all weather access on boreal woodland caribou.

  1. Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2017-01-01

    The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

  2. Solar ramping distributions over multiple timescales and weather patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hummon, Marissa; Orwig, Kirsten [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-07-01

    As greater amounts of solar power are included in the power system it is becoming increasingly important to have a better characterization of the variability of solar power over the timescales that are relevant to power system operations. In this paper, we examine the distribution of ramp events that occur in global horizontal irradiance measurements from a number of sites in the western United States. The distributions are found to be significantly non-normal over multiple timescales from 1 minute to 1 hour. A hyberbolic distribution is suggested for more accurately representing the observed ramp distributions. Additionally, the ramp distributions that occur during different classifications of weather patterns are characterized and significant differences are observed between patterns. (orig.)

  3. Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

  4. Application and Study of Precipitation Schemes in Weather Simulation in Summer and Winter over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Guoqiang; WAN Qilin; HUANG Liping; XUE Jishan; CHEN Dehui

    2006-01-01

    Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme and Betts-Miller (BM) scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded.Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.

  5. Estimating dew formation in rice, using seasonally averaged diel patterns of weather variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, W.; Goudriaan, J.

    2004-01-01

    If dew formation cannot be measured it has to be estimated. Available simulation models for estimating dew formation require hourly weather data as input. However, such data are not available for places without an automatic weather station. In such cases the diel pattern of weather variables might

  6. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  7. Design and management of public health outreach using interoperable mobile multimedia: an analysis of a national winter weather preparedness campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Bandera

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts outreach for public preparedness for natural and manmade incidents. In 2011, OPHPR conducted a nationwide mobile public health (m-Health campaign that pushed brief videos on preparing for severe winter weather onto cell phones, with the objective of evaluating the interoperability of multimedia m-Health outreach with diverse cell phones (including handsets without Internet capability, carriers, and user preferences. Methods Existing OPHPR outreach material on winter weather preparedness was converted into mobile-ready multimedia using mobile marketing best practices to improve audiovisual quality and relevance. Middleware complying with opt-in requirements was developed to push nine bi-weekly multimedia broadcasts onto subscribers’ cell phones, and OPHPR promoted the campaign on its web site and to subscribers on its govdelivery.com notification platform. Multimedia, text, and voice messaging activity to/from the middleware was logged and analyzed. Results Adapting existing media into mobile video was straightforward using open source and commercial software, including web pages, PDF documents, and public service announcements. The middleware successfully delivered all outreach videos to all participants (a total of 504 videos regardless of the participant’s device. 54 % of videos were viewed on cell phones, 32 % on computers, and 14 % were retrieved by search engine web crawlers. 21 % of participating cell phones did not have Internet access, yet still received and displayed all videos. The time from media push to media viewing on cell phones was half that of push to viewing on computers. Conclusions Video delivered through multimedia messaging can be as interoperable as text messages, while providing much richer information. This may be the only multimedia mechanism available to outreach campaigns

  8. Design and management of public health outreach using interoperable mobile multimedia: an analysis of a national winter weather preparedness campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandera, Cesar

    2016-05-25

    The Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR) in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts outreach for public preparedness for natural and manmade incidents. In 2011, OPHPR conducted a nationwide mobile public health (m-Health) campaign that pushed brief videos on preparing for severe winter weather onto cell phones, with the objective of evaluating the interoperability of multimedia m-Health outreach with diverse cell phones (including handsets without Internet capability), carriers, and user preferences. Existing OPHPR outreach material on winter weather preparedness was converted into mobile-ready multimedia using mobile marketing best practices to improve audiovisual quality and relevance. Middleware complying with opt-in requirements was developed to push nine bi-weekly multimedia broadcasts onto subscribers' cell phones, and OPHPR promoted the campaign on its web site and to subscribers on its govdelivery.com notification platform. Multimedia, text, and voice messaging activity to/from the middleware was logged and analyzed. Adapting existing media into mobile video was straightforward using open source and commercial software, including web pages, PDF documents, and public service announcements. The middleware successfully delivered all outreach videos to all participants (a total of 504 videos) regardless of the participant's device. 54 % of videos were viewed on cell phones, 32 % on computers, and 14 % were retrieved by search engine web crawlers. 21 % of participating cell phones did not have Internet access, yet still received and displayed all videos. The time from media push to media viewing on cell phones was half that of push to viewing on computers. Video delivered through multimedia messaging can be as interoperable as text messages, while providing much richer information. This may be the only multimedia mechanism available to outreach campaigns targeting vulnerable populations impacted by the digital divide

  9. Evaluation of nitrogen uptake patterns in spring and winter wheat in western Oregon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baloch, D.M.; Malghani, M.A.K.; Khan, M.A.; Kakar, E.

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of the ground nitrogen (N) uptake pattern for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is essential to facilitate nitrogen management. The purpose of this study was to determine the nitrogen uptake pattern of spring and winter wheat grown in western Oregon, USA. Data used in this study were obtained from three different trials. For spring wheat rotation trials five spring wheat cultivars were used. Fertilizer N (16-16-16-4) at the rate of 140 kg ha/sup -1/ was applied at the time of planting. In small plot rotation trials five fertilizer treatments - 0, 50, 100,150 and 200 kg N ha/sup -1/ were used. Rotations include winter wheat following clover and winter wheat following oat. The N uptake and dry matter yield of winter wheat were also determined from unfertilized plots of wheat trial. The maximum N uptake for spring wheat and winter wheat were at 1100 and 2000 accumulated growing degree days (GDD), before Feekes 10, respectively. The maximum N uptake rate for spring wheat, 0.038 kg N GDD/sup -1/, occurred at 750 GDD and the peak N uptake was observed approximately 35 days after Feekes 2. Nitrogen uptake in winter wheat was significantly affected by rotations. (author)

  10. Isolating weather effects from seasonal activity patterns of a temperate North American Colubrid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. George; Frank R. III Thompson; John. Faaborg

    2015-01-01

    Forecasting the effects of climate change on threatened ecosystems and species will require an understanding of how weather influences processes that drive population dynamics. We have evaluated weather effects on activity patterns of western ratsnakes, a widespread predator of birds and small mammals in eastern North America. From 2010-2013 we radio-tracked 53...

  11. Migration patterns and wintering range of common loons breeding in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenow, K.P.; Adams, D.; Schoch, N.; Evers, D.C.; Hanson, W.; Yates, D.; Savoy, L.; Fox, T.J.; Major, A.; Kratt, R.; Ozard, J.

    2009-01-01

    A study, using satellite telemetry, was conducted to determine the precise migration patterns and wintering locations of Common Loons (Gavia immer) breeding in the northeastern United States. Transmitters were implanted in 17 loons (16 adults and one juvenile) that were captured on breeding lakes in New York, New Hampshire, and Maine during the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. Transmitters from ten of the birds provided adequate location data to document movement to wintering areas. Most adult loons appeared to travel non-stop from breeding lakes, or neighboring lakes (within 15 km), to the Atlantic coast. Adult loons marked in New Hampshire and Maine wintered 152 to 239 km from breeding lakes, along the Maine coast. Adult loons marked in the Adirondack Park of New York wintered along the coasts of Massachusetts (414 km from breeding lake), Rhode Island (362 km), and southern New Jersey (527 km). Most of the loons remained relatively stationary throughout the winter, but the size of individual wintering areas of adult loons ranged from 43 to 1,159 km 2, based on a 95% fixed kernel utilization distribution probability. A juvenile bird from New York made a number of stops at lakes and reservoirs en route to Long Island Sound (325 km from breeding lake). Maximum functional life of transmitters was about 12 months, providing an opportunity to document spring migration movements as well. This work provides essential information for development and implementation of regional Common Loon conservation strategies in the Northeastern U.S.

  12. Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

    2015-12-04

    High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

  13. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  14. East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

    2016-04-01

    The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

  15. Evidence of social deprivation on the spatial patterns of excess winter mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almendra, Ricardo; Santana, Paula; Vasconcelos, João

    2017-11-01

    The aims of this study are to identify the patterns of excess winter mortality (due to diseases of the circulatory system) and to analyse the association between the excess winter deaths (EWD) and socio-economic deprivation in Portugal. The number of EWD in 2002-2011 was estimated by comparing the number of deaths in winter months with the average number in non-winter months. The EWD ratio of each municipality was calculated by following the indirect standardization method and then compared with two deprivation indexes (socio-material and housing deprivation index) through ecological regression models. This study found that: (1) the EWD ratio showed considerable asymmetry in its geography; (2) there are significant positive associations between the EWD ratio and both deprivation indexes; and (3) at the higher level of deprivation, housing conditions have a stronger association with EWD than socio-material conditions. The significant association between two deprivation dimensions (socio-material and housing deprivation) and EWDs suggests that EWD geographical pattern is influenced by deprivation.

  16. Winter Weather Response Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has been given statutory authority for the : planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the State Highway System. With : few new highways being constructed, the operation and maintenan...

  17. Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

  18. Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2017-04-01

    Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive

  19. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  20. An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

    2009-04-01

    In recent years a large number of automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns have been published covering the entire European continent or specific sub-regions (Huth et al., 2008). This generalized use of objective classifications results from their relatively straightforward computation but crucially from their capacity to provide simple description of typical synoptic conditions as well as their climatic and environmental impact. For this purpose, the vast majority of authors has employed the Reanalyses datasets, namely from either NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF projects. However, both these widely used datasets suffer from important caveats, namely their restricted temporal coverage, that is limited to the last six decades (NCEP/NCAR since 1948 and ECMWF since 1958). This limitation has been partially mitigated by the recent availability of continuous daily mean sea level pressure obtained within the European project EMULATE, that extended the historic records over the extra-tropical Atlantic and Europe (70°-25° N by 70° W-50° E), for the period 1850 to the present (Ansell, T. J. et al. 2006). Here we have used the extended EMULATE dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al 1993) adapted for the center of the Iberian Peninsula. We have identified 10 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Portugal) and Lorenzo et al. 2008 (for Galicia, northwestern Iberia). We have evaluated trends of monthly/seasonal frequency of each WT for the entire period and several shorter periods. Finally, we use the long-term precipitation time series from Lisbon (recently digitized) and Cadiz (southern Spain) to evaluate, the impact of each WT on the precipitation regime. It is shown that the Anticyclonic (A) type, although being the most frequent class in winter, gives a rather small contribution to

  1. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

    1989-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  2. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kris A Murray

    Full Text Available The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30 were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1 GI30, 2 frog body size and 3 rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario

  3. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Kris A; Skerratt, Lee F; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

    2013-01-01

    The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and

  4. Identifying Patterns in the Weather of Europe for Source Term Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klampanos, Iraklis; Pappas, Charalambos; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Davvetas, Athanasios; Ikonomopoulos, Andreas; Karkaletsis, Vangelis

    2017-04-01

    During emergencies that involve the release of hazardous substances into the atmosphere the potential health effects on the human population and the environment are of primary concern. Such events have occurred in the past, most notably involving radioactive and toxic substances. Examples of radioactive release events include the Chernobyl accident in 1986, as well as the more recent Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Often, the release of dangerous substances in the atmosphere is detected at locations different from the release origin. The objective of this work is the rapid estimation of such unknown sources shortly after the detection of dangerous substances in the atmosphere, with an initial focus on nuclear or radiological releases. Typically, after the detection of a radioactive substance in the atmosphere indicating the occurrence of an unknown release, the source location is estimated via inverse modelling. However, depending on factors such as the spatial resolution desired, traditional inverse modelling can be computationally time-consuming. This is especially true for cases where complex topography and weather conditions are involved and can therefore be problematic when timing is critical. Making use of machine learning techniques and the Big Data Europe platform1, our approach moves the bulk of the computation before any such event taking place, therefore allowing for rapid initial, albeit rougher, estimations regarding the source location. Our proposed approach is based on the automatic identification of weather patterns within the European continent. Identifying weather patterns has long been an active research field. Our case is differentiated by the fact that it focuses on plume dispersion patterns and these meteorological variables that affect dispersion the most. For a small set of recurrent weather patterns, we simulate hypothetical radioactive releases from a pre-known set of nuclear reactor locations and for different substance and temporal

  5. Weather Type classification over Chile; patterns, trends, and impact in precipitation and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frias, T.; Trigo, R. M.; Garreaud, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Andes Cordillera induces considerable disturbances on the structure and evolution of the pressure systems that influences South America. Different weather types for southern South America are derived from the daily maps of geopotential height at 850hPa corresponding to a 42 year period, spanning from 1958 to 2000. Here we have used the ECWMF ERA-40 reanalysis dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al., 1993) developed for the UK. We have identified 8 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 6 main directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Iberia). This classification was applied to two regions of study (CLnorth and CLsouth) which differ 20° in latitude, so that the vast Chile territory could be covered. Then were assessed the impact of the occurrence of this weather types in precipitation in Chile, as well as in the distribution of precipitation and temperature fields (reanalysis data) in southern half of South America. The results allow to conclude that the precipitation in central region of Chile is largely linked with the class occurrence (concerning CLnorth) of cyclonic circulation and of West quadrant (SW, W and NW), despite of it's relatively low frequency. In CLsouth, for its part, it is verified that the most frequent circulation is from the west quadrant, although the associated amount of rainfall is lower than in CLnorth. There was also a general decrease of precipitation at local weather stations chosen in the considered period of study, particularly in austral winter.

  6. Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather pattern subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Blanchet

    2015-12-01

    SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather Pattern (MGPWP distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the southwestern part of Norway during the period 1979–2009, relative to 1948–1978.

  7. Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

    2017-08-01

    Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

  8. Recent changes of weather patterns in North America. Progress report for period ending April 1, 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kukla, G.J.; Karl, T.

    1994-01-01

    This report contains information dealing with climatic change in North America. Results gathered from present and previous DOE contracts are discussed. These include: usage of the Historical Climatology Network, characteristics of recent climate change, impacts of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases, seasonal trends, geographic and seasonal distribution of temperature anomalies, paleoclimates, weather pattern differences between eastern and western regions, daily temperature variations, general circulation models, and results of oceanic circulation

  9. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Garavaglia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

    First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

    The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

  10. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eitzinger, J; Thaler, S; Schmid, E

    2013-01-01

    the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing...

  11. Colonisation of winter wheat grain by Fusarium spp. and mycotoxin content as dependent on a wheat variety, crop rotation, a crop management system and weather conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaban, Janusz; Wróblewska, Barbara; Sułek, Alicja; Mikos, Marzena; Boguszewska, Edyta; Podolska, Grażyna; Nieróbca, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted during three consecutive growing seasons (2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10) with four winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars - 'Bogatka', 'Kris', 'Satyna' and 'Tonacja' - grown on fields with a three-field crop rotation (winter triticale, spring barley, winter wheat) and in a four-field crop rotation experiment (spring wheat, spring cereals, winter rapeseed, winter wheat). After the harvest, kernels were surface disinfected with 2% NaOCl and then analysed for the internal infection by different species of Fusarium. Fusaria were isolated on Czapek-Dox iprodione dichloran agar medium and identified on the basis of macro- and micro-morphology on potato dextrose agar and synthetic nutrient agar media. The total wheat grain infection by Fusarium depended mainly on relative humidity (RH) and a rainfall during the flowering stage. Intensive rainfall and high RH in 2009 and 2010 in the period meant the proportions of infected kernels by the fungi were much higher than those in 2008 (lack of precipitation during anthesis). Weather conditions during the post-anthesis period changed the species composition of Fusarium communities internally colonising winter wheat grain. The cultivars significantly varied in the proportion of infected kernels by Fusarium spp. The growing season and type of crop rotation had a distinct effect on species composition of Fusarium communities colonising the grain inside. A trend of a higher percentage of the colonised kernels by the fungi in the grain from the systems using more fertilisers and pesticides as well as the buried straw could be perceived. The most frequent species in the grain were F. avenaceum, F. tricinctum and F. poae in 2008, and F. avenaceum, F. graminearum, F. tricinctum and F. poae in 2009 and 2010. The contents of deoxynivalenol and zearalenon in the grain were correlated with the percentage of kernels colonised by F. graminearum and were the highest in 2009 in the grain from the four

  12. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  13. Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    Full Text Available We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  14. Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stucki, Peter; Rickli, Ralph; Broennimann, Stefan; Martius, Olivia; Wanner, Heinz; Bern Univ.; Grebner, Dietmar; Luterbacher, Juerg

    2012-01-01

    The generation of 24 extreme floods in large catchments of the central Alps is analyzed from instrumental and documentary data, newly digitized observations of precipitation (DigiHom) and 20 th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data. Extreme floods are determined by the 95 th percentile of differences between an annual flood and a defined contemporary flood. For a selection of six events between 1868 and 1910, we describe preconditioning elements such as precipitation, temperature, and snow cover anomalies. Specific weather patterns are assessed through a subjective analysis of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation. A focus is placed on synoptic-scale features including mid-tropospheric ascent, low-level moisture transport, propagation of cyclones, and temperature anomalies. We propose a hydro-meteorological classification of all 24 investigated events according to flood-generating weather conditions. Key elements of the upper-level synoptic-scale flow are summarized by five types: (i) pivoting cut-off lows, (ii) elongated cut-off lows, (iii) elongated troughs, (iv) waves (with a kink), and (v) approximately zonal flow over the Alpine region. We found that the most extreme floods (as above, but ≥ 98 th percentile) in Switzerland since 1868 were caused by the interaction of severe hydro-climatologic conditions with a flood-inducing weather situation. The 20CR data provide plausible synoptic-scale meteorological patterns leading to heavy precipitation. The proposed catalogue of weather patterns and hydro-climatologic precursors can give direction when anticipating the possibility of severe floods in the Alpine region. (orig.)

  15. Ducks change wintering patterns due to changing climate in the important wintering waters of the Odra River Estuary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Marchowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Some species of birds react to climate change by reducing the distance they travel during migration. The Odra River Estuary in the Baltic Sea is important for wintering waterfowl and is where we investigated how waterbirds respond to freezing surface waters. The most abundant birds here comprise two ecological groups: bottom-feeders and piscivores. Numbers of all bottom-feeders, but not piscivores, were negatively correlated with the presence of ice. With ongoing global warming, this area is increasing in importance for bottom-feeders and decreasing for piscivores. The maximum range of ice cover in the Baltic Sea has a weak and negative effect on both groups of birds. Five of the seven target species are bottom-feeders (Greater Scaup Aythya marila, Tufted Duck A. fuligula, Common Pochard A. ferina, Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula and Eurasian Coot Fulica atra, and two are piscivores (Smew Mergellus albellus and Goosander Mergus merganser. Local changes at the level of particular species vary for different reasons. A local decline of the Common Pochard may simply be a consequence of its global decline. Climate change is responsible for some of the local changes in the study area, disproportionately favoring some duck species while being detrimental to others.

  16. Winter ecology of the Porcupine caribou herd, Yukon: Part III, Role of day length in determining activity pattern and estimating percent lying

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Russell

    1986-06-01

    Full Text Available Data on the activity pattern, proportion of time spent lying and the length of active and lying periods in winter are presented from a 3 year study on the Porcupine caribou herd. Animals were most active at sunrise and sunset resulting in from one (late fall, early and mid winter to two (early fall and late winter to three (spring intervening lying periods. Mean active/lying cycle length decreased from late fall (298 mm to early winter (238 min, increased to a peak in mid winter (340 min then declined in late winter (305 min and again in spring (240 min. Mean length of the lying period increased throughout the 3 winter months from 56 min m early winter to 114 min in mid winter and 153 min in late winter. The percent of the day animals spent lying decreased from fall to early winter, increased throughout the winter and declined in spring. This pattern was related, in part, to day length and was used to compare percent lying among herds. The relationship is suggested to be a means of comparing quality of winter ranges.

  17. Effect of weather on temporal pain patterns in patients with temporomandibular disorders and migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi, I; Farella, M; Chiodini, P; Ammendola, L; Capuozzo, R; Klain, C; Vollaro, S; Michelotti, A

    2017-05-01

    Patients with masticatory muscle pain and migraine typically report that the intensity of pain fluctuates over time and is affected by weather changes. Weather variables, such as ambient temperature and humidity, may vary significantly depending on whether the individual is outdoor or indoor. It is, therefore, important to assess these variables at the individual level using portable monitors, during everyday life. This study aimed to determine and compare the temporal patterns of pain in individuals affected with facial and head pain and to investigate its relation with weather changes. Eleven patients (27·3 ± 7·4 years) with chronic masticatory muscle pain (MP) and twenty (33·1 ± 8·7 years) with migraine headache (MH) were asked to report their current pain level on a visual analogue scale (VAS) every hour over fourteen consecutive days. The VAS scores were collected using portable data-loggers, which were also used to record temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. VAS scores varied markedly over time in both groups. Pain VAS scores fluctuate less in the MP group than in the MH group, but their mean, minimum and maximum values were higher than those of migraine patients (all P < 0·05). Pain scores <2 cm were more common in the MH than in the MP group (P < 0·001). Perceived intensity of pain was negatively associated with atmospheric pressure in the MP group and positively associated with temperature and atmospheric in the MH group. Our results reveal that patients with masticatory muscle pain and patients with migraine present typical temporal pain patterns that are influenced in a different way by weather changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, Menghestab

    2005-11-29

    Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term, impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food

  19. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2018-04-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  20. Winter honey bee colony losses, Varroa destructor control strategies, and the role of weather conditions: Results from a survey among beekeepers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, Marco; Junk, Jürgen; Eickermann, Michael; Clermont, Antoine; Kraus, François; Georges, Carlo; Reichart, Andreas; Hoffmann, Lucien

    2018-06-01

    Sets of treatments that were applied against varroa mites in the Luxembourgish beekeeper community were surveyed annually with a questionnaire between the winters 2010/11 and 2014/15. The average temperature and the precipitation sum of the month, when the respective varroa control method was applied were considered as co-variables when evaluating the efficacy of varroa control regimes. Success or failure of control regimes was evaluated based on the percentage of colonies lost per apiary in the winter following the treatment(s). Neither a positive nor a negative effect of formic acid (concentration 60%, w/v) on the colony losses could be found, irrespective of the weather conditions around the time of application. The higher concentration of 85% formic acid was linked with reduced colony losses when applications were done in August. Colony losses were reduced when Thymovar was applied in July or August, but applications in September were associated with increased losses compared with apiaries not treated with Thymovar during the same period. Apilife application in July as well as Apivar applications between July and September were associated with reduced colony losses. The removal of the drone brood and trickled oxalic acid application had beneficial effects when being done in April and December, respectively. Relatively warm (3.0±1.3°C) and wet (507.0±38.6mm/2months) conditions during the winter months December and January and relatively cool (17.2±1.4°C average monthly temperature) and wet (110.8±55.5mm/month) conditions in July were associated with elevated honey bee colony losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Rotaviral and bacterial gastroenteritis in children during winter: an evaluation of physician ordering patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemaly, Roy F; Yen-Lieberman, Belinda; Schindler, Sue A; Goldfarb, Johanna; Hall, Gerri S; Procop, Gary W

    2003-09-01

    Identification of the agents of infectious diarrhea may facilitate appropriate therapy and prevent inappropriate antibiotic use. To better define the etiology of infectious diarrhea for children <12 years in our community and to study the ordering patterns of physicians. We reviewed test results of stool specimens from children <12 years old at our institution (CCF) and those submitted through our reference laboratory for rotavirus enzyme immunoassay (REIA) and stool cultures for a 7-month period (11/1/00-6/1/01). For CCF patients, REIA and stool cultures for usual bacterial enteric pathogens (BEP) were performed, regardless of the test ordered (i.e. REIA alone, stool culture alone or both). We compared the results with the orders placed to determine if requests for rotavirus alone or bacterial stool culture alone missed BEP or rotavirus, respectively. Overall, REIAs were performed on 81% (538/661) of stool specimens, with 37% positive. Stool cultures were performed on 62% (408/661) of stool specimens, with 4.4% positive. Stool specimens (280) from CCF pediatric patients were evaluated for both rotavirus and BEP. Some 42% of REIA and 23% of stool cultures were ordered as single tests, while both tests were ordered for 35% of the patients. Of the REIA ordered alone, 34% were positive for rotavirus; however, 2.5% of these contained BEP that would have been missed. Of the stool cultures that were ordered alone, 8% were positive; however, 19% of these contained rotavirus that would have been missed. When both tests were ordered, 22% contained rotavirus and 2% contained BEP. Both rotavirus and bacterial enteric infections were missed with selective viral versus bacterial specific ordering patterns. A rotaviral screen prior to stool culture may be useful for children with diarrhea during the winter months.

  2. Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the 20th century NAO-winter precipitation relationship in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas-Bru, Laia; McDermott, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Much of the 20th century multi-decadal variability in the NAO-winter precipitation relationship over the N. Atlantic / European sector can be ascribed to the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and either the East Atlantic pattern (EA) or the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The NAO, EA and SCA indices employed here are defined as the three leading vectors of the cross-correlation matrix calculated from monthly sea-level pressure anomalies for 138 complete winters from the 20CRv2 dataset (Compo et al., 2011). Winter precipitation data over Europe for the entire 20th century is derived from the high resolution CRU-TS3.1 climate dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005). Here we document for the first time, that different NAO/EA and NAO/SCA combinations systematically influence winter precipitation conditions in Europe as a consequence of NAO dipole migrations. We find that the zero-correlated line of the NAO-winter precipitation relationship migrates southwards when the EA is in the opposite phase to the NAO. This can be related to a south-westwards migration of the NAO dipole under these conditions, as shown by teleconnectivity maps. Similarly, a clockwise movement of the NAO-winter climate correlated areas occurs when the phase of the SCA is opposite to that of the NAO, reflecting a clockwise movement of the NAO dipole under these conditions. An important implication of these migrations is that they influence the spatial and temporal stationarity of climate-NAO relationships. As a result, the link between winter precipitation patterns and the NAO is not straightforward in some regions such as the southern UK, Ireland and France. For instance, much of the inter-annual variability in the N-S winter precipitation gradient in the UK, originally attributed to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of the NAO, reflects the migration of the NAO dipole, linked to linear combinations of the NAO and the EA. Our results indicate that when the N-S winter

  3. Evaluation of cropping pattern in rainfed areas based on studies of pranata mangsa and weather dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaki, M. K.; Furi, N. T.; Syamsiyah, Jauhari; Sumani

    2018-03-01

    Weather dynamics such as the fifth time of the rainy season and drought are becoming more frequent. These conditions pose a significant impact on the strategies of cultivation such as cropping pattern and crop yields, especially in rainfed areas. One of the steps that can be taken is to return to local wisdom, such as pranata mangsa. This study aimed at analyzing the relationship of the variability of precipitation in rainfed areas with pranata mangsa and then to evaluate cropping patterns based on the result of the analysis. The study was conducted in rainfed areas of the District of Jumantono, Karanganyar Regency; and District of Teras and District of Ampel, Boyolali Regency in June until December 2014. The research method is a descriptive exploratory survey with purposive sampling based on moderate altitude (200-700 masl). The types of data that are used are primary and secondary. Data analysis was used correlation test. The results showed that precipitation in rainfed areas has a close relationship with paranata mangsa. These results explain that pranata mangsa still relevant to be used even though it has happened weather dynamics.

  4. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

    2010-05-01

    We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

  5. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Toreti

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

  6. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Porous Asphalt with a Focus on Winter Damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwiatkowski, Kyle; Stipanovic, Irina; Hartmann, Andreas; Ter Maat, Han

    2016-01-01

    This chapter investigates the impact and adaptation options of climate change on porous asphalt (PA) roads, specifically for the case of winter weather (freeze-thaw cycles) and road damage in the Netherlands. Changes in weather patterns pose a threat to the serviceability and long-term performance

  7. Potential impact of climate change on porous asphalt with a focus on winter damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwiatkowski, K.P.; Stipanovic Oslakovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Maat, ter H.W.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter investigates the impact and adaptation options of climate change on porous asphalt
    (PA) roads, specifically for the case of winter weather (freeze–thaw cycles) and road damage in
    the Netherlands. Changes in weather patterns pose a threat to the serviceability and

  8. Cross-seasonal patterns of avian influenza virus in breeding and wintering migratory birds: a flyway perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Nichola J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Cardona, Carol J.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2012-01-01

    The spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in nature is intrinsically linked with the movements of wild birds. Wild birds are the reservoirs for the virus and their migration may facilitate the circulation of AIV between breeding and wintering areas. This cycle of dispersal has become widely accepted; however, there are few AIV studies that present cross-seasonal information. A flyway perspective is critical for understanding how wild birds contribute to the persistence of AIV over large spatial and temporal scales, with implications for how to focus surveillance efforts and identify risks to public health. This study characterized spatio-temporal infection patterns in 10,389 waterfowl at two important locations within the Pacific Flyway--breeding sites in Interior Alaska and wintering sites in California's Central Valley during 2007-2009. Among the dabbling ducks sampled, the northern shoveler (Anas clypeata) had the highest prevalence of AIV at both breeding (32.2%) and wintering (5.2%) locations. This is in contrast to surveillance studies conducted in other flyways that have identified the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and northern pintail (Anas acuta) as hosts with the highest prevalence. A higher diversity of AIV subtypes was apparent at wintering (n=42) compared with breeding sites (n=17), with evidence of mixed infections at both locations. Our study suggests that wintering sites may act as an important mixing bowl for transmission among waterfowl in a flyway, creating opportunities for the reassortment of the virus. Our findings shed light on how the dynamics of AIV infection of wild bird populations can vary between the two ends of a migratory flyway.

  9. Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

    2015-09-01

    Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity

  10. Weather Effects on the Patterns of People's Everyday Activities: A Study Using GPS Traces of Mobile Phone Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, Tuck W.; Sekimoto, Yoshihide; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the effects that the weather has on people's everyday activity patterns. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were used as weather parameters. People's daily activity patterns were inferred, such as place visited, the time this took place, the duration of the visit, based on the GPS location traces of their mobile phones overlaid upon Yellow Pages information. Our analysis of 31,855 mobile phone users allowed us to infer that people were more likely to stay longer at eateries or food outlets, and (to a lesser degree) at retail or shopping areas when the weather is very cold or when conditions are calm (non-windy). When compared to people's regular activity patterns, certain weather conditions affected people's movements and activities noticeably at different times of the day. On cold days, people's activities were found to be more diverse especially after 10AM, showing greatest variations between 2PM and 6PM. A similar trend is observed between 10AM and midnight on rainy days, with people's activities found to be most diverse on days with heaviest rainfalls or on days when the wind speed was stronger than 4 km/h, especially between 10AM–1AM. Finally, we observed that different geographical areas of a large metropolis were impacted differently by the weather. Using data of urban infrastructure to characterize areas, we found strong correlations between weather conditions upon people's accessibility to trains. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on human behavior, in particular the choice of daily activities and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on urban dynamics. PMID:24367481

  11. Variation of rain intensity and drop size distribution with General Weather Patterns (GWL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghada, Wael; Buras, Allan; Lüpke, Marvin; Menzel, Annette

    2017-04-01

    Short-duration rainfall extremes may cause flash floods in certain catchments (e.g. cities or fast responding watersheds) and pose a great risk to affected communities. In order to predict their occurrence under future climate change scenarios, their link to atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be well understood. We used a comprehensive data set of meteorological data (temperature, rain gauge precipitation) and precipitation spectra measured by a disdrometer (OTT PARSIVEL) between October 2008 and June 2010 at Freising, southern Germany. For the 21 months of the study period, we integrated the disdrometer spectra over intervals of 10 minutes to correspond to the temporal resolution of the weather station data and discarded measurements with air temperatures below 0°C. Daily General Weather Patterns ("Großwetterlagen", GWL) were downloaded from the website of the German Meteorological Service. Out of the 29 GWL, 14 were included in the analysis for which we had at least 12 rain events during our study period. For the definition of a rain event, we tested different lengths of minimum inter-event times and chose 30 min as a good compromise between number and length of resulting events; rain events started when more than 0.001 mm/h (sensitivity of the disdrometer) were recorded. The length of the rain events ranged between 10 min and 28 h (median 130 min) with the maximum rain intensity recorded being 134 mm/h on 24-07-2009. Seasonal differences were identified for rain event average intensities and maximum intensities per event. The influence of GWL on rain properties such as rain intensity and drop size distribution per time step and per event was investigated based on the above mentioned rain event definition. Pairwise Wilcoxon-tests revealed that higher rain intensity and larger drops were associated with the GWL "Low over the British Isles" (TB), whereas low rain intensities and less drops per interval were associated with the GWL "High over Central Europe

  12. Naturally Occurring Radionuclides and Rare Earth Elements Pattern in Weathered Japanese Soil Samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, S.K.; Hosoda, M.; Takahashi, H.; Sorimachi, A.; Ishikawa, T.; Tokonami, S.; Uchida, S.

    2011-01-01

    From the viewpoint of radiation protection, determination of natural radionuclides e.g. thorium and uranium in soil samples are important. Accurate methods for determination of Th and U is gaining importance. The geochemical behavior of Th, U and rare earth elements (REEs) are relatively close to one another while compared to other elements in geological environment. Radioactive elements like 232 Th and 238 U along with their decay products (e.g. 226 Ra) are present in most of the environmental matrices and can be transferred to living bodies by different pathways that can lead to sources of exposure of man. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor these natural radionuclides in weathered soil samples to assess the possible hazards. The activity concentrations of 226 Ra, 228 Th, and 40 K in soils have been measured using a g γ-ray spectroscopy system with high purity germanium detector. The thorium, uranium and REEs were determined from the same sample using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Granitic rocks contain higher amounts of Th, U and light REEs compared to other igneous rocks such as basalt and andesites. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the interaction between REEs and nature of soils, as soils are complex heterogeneous mixture of organic and inorganic solids, water and gases. In this paper, we have discussed about distribution pattern of 226 Ra, 232 Th and 238 U along with REEs in soil samples of weathered acid rock (granite and ryolite) collected from two prefectures in Japan: 1. Gifu and 2. Okinawa. (author)

  13. Migration patterns and movements of sandhill cranes wintering in central and southwestern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Sammy L.; Pierce, Aaron R.; Hersey, Kent R.; Winstead, Nicholas; Hartup, Barry K.

    2010-01-01

    In this study we trapped wintering sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) in Louisiana and fitted them with satellite transmitters to determine their migration routes. Four of the 6 sandhill cranes with validated locations and a terminus point used the Central Flyway for spring migration; 2 of these 4 (the only 2 for which we have data) also used the Central Flyway for fall migration. Two of the 6 birds used the Mississippi Flyway for spring migration. The results of this study suggest that reintroduced whooping cranes (G. americana) that intermix and migrate with sandhill cranes that winter in Louisiana may enter the Central Flyway. In addition, the Mississippi Flyway is a viable option to use as a migration route for whooping cranes if they are reintroduced in Louisiana.

  14. Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, P.

    2018-04-01

    In this study two complementary approaches have been combined to estimate the reliability of the data-driven seasonal predictability of the meteorological summer mean temperature (T_{JJA}) over Europe. The developed model is based on linear regressions and uses early season predictors to estimate the target value T_{JJA}. We found for the Potsdam (Germany) climate station that the monthly standard deviations (σ) from January to April and the temperature mean ( m) in April are good predictors to describe T_{JJA} after 1990. However, before 1990 the model failed. The core region where this model works is the north-eastern part of Central Europe. We also analyzed long-term trends of monthly Hess/Brezowsky weather types as possible causes of the dynamical changes. In spring, a significant increase of the occurrences for two opposite weather patterns was found: Zonal Ridge across Central Europe (BM) and Trough over Central Europe (TRM). Both currently make up about 30% of the total alternating weather systems over Europe. Other weather types are predominantly decreasing or their trends are not significant. Thus, the predictability may be attributed to these two weather types where the difference between the two Z500 composite patterns is large. This also applies to the north-eastern part of Central Europe. Finally, the detected enhanced seasonal predictability over Europe is alarming, because severe side effects may occur. One of these are more frequent climate extremes in summer half-year.

  15. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  16. Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Silverman, Emily D.

    2010-01-01

    Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate

  17. Wintering ecology of sympatric subspecies of Sandhill Crane: Correlations between body size, site fidelity, and movement patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Gary L.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Herziger, Caroline P.; Casazza, Michael L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.

    2015-01-01

    Body size is known to correlate with many aspects of life history in birds, and this knowledge can be used to manage and conserve bird species. However, few studies have compared the wintering ecology of sympatric subspecies that vary significantly in body size. We used radiotelemetry to examine the relationship between body size and site fidelity, movements, and home range in 2 subspecies of Sandhill Crane (Grus canadensis) wintering in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of California, USA. Both subspecies showed high interannual return rates to the Delta study area, but Greater Sandhill Cranes (G. c. tabida) showed stronger within-winter fidelity to landscapes in our study region and to roost complexes within landscapes than did Lesser Sandhill Cranes (G. c. canadensis). Foraging flights from roost sites were shorter for G. c. tabida than for G. c. canadensis (1.9 ± 0.01 km vs. 4.5 ± 0.01 km, respectively) and, consequently, the mean size of 95% fixed-kernel winter home ranges was an order of magnitude smaller for G. c. tabida than for G. c. canadensis (1.9 ± 0.4 km2 vs. 21.9 ± 1.9 km2, respectively). Strong site fidelity indicates that conservation planning to manage for adequate food resources around traditional roost sites can be effective for meeting the habitat needs of these cranes, but the scale of conservation efforts should differ by subspecies. Analysis of movement patterns suggests that conservation planners and managers should consider all habitats within 5 km of a known G. c. tabida roost and within 10 km of a G. c. canadensis roost when planning for habitat management, mitigation, acquisition, and easements.

  18. Weathering Patterns of Ignitable Liquids with the Advanced Distillation Curve Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Thomas J; Allen, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    One can take advantage of the striking similarity of ignitable liquid vaporization (or weathering) patterns and the separation observed during distillation to predict the composition of residual compounds in fire debris. This is done with the advanced distillation curve (ADC) metrology, which separates a complex fluid by distillation into fractions that are sampled, and for which thermodynamically consistent temperatures are measured at atmospheric pressure. The collected sample fractions can be analyzed by any method that is appropriate. Analytical methods we have applied include gas chromatography (with flame ionization, mass spectrometric and sulfur chemiluminescence detection), thin layer chromatography, FTIR, Karl Fischer coulombic titrimetry, refractometry, corrosivity analysis, neutron activation analysis and cold neutron prompt gamma activation analysis. We have applied this method on product streams such as finished fuels (gasoline, diesel fuels, aviation fuels, rocket propellants), crude oils (including a crude oil made from swine manure) and waste oils streams (used automotive and transformer oils). In this paper, we present results on a variety of ignitable liquids that are not commodity fuels, chosen from the Ignitable Liquids Reference Collection (ILRC). These measurements are assembled into a preliminary database. From this selection, we discuss the significance and forensic application of the temperature data grid and the composition explicit data channel of the ADC.

  19. Weathering Patterns of Ignitable Liquids with the Advanced Distillation Curve Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Thomas J; Allen, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    One can take advantage of the striking similarity of ignitable liquid vaporization (or weathering) patterns and the separation observed during distillation to predict the composition of residual compounds in fire debris. This is done with the advanced distillation curve (ADC) metrology, which separates a complex fluid by distillation into fractions that are sampled, and for which thermodynamically consistent temperatures are measured at atmospheric pressure. The collected sample fractions can be analyzed by any method that is appropriate. Analytical methods we have applied include gas chromatography (with flame ionization, mass spectrometric and sulfur chemiluminescence detection), thin layer chromatography, FTIR, Karl Fischer coulombic titrimetry, refractometry, corrosivity analysis, neutron activation analysis and cold neutron prompt gamma activation analysis. We have applied this method on product streams such as finished fuels (gasoline, diesel fuels, aviation fuels, rocket propellants), crude oils (including a crude oil made from swine manure) and waste oils streams (used automotive and transformer oils). In this paper, we present results on a variety of ignitable liquids that are not commodity fuels, chosen from the Ignitable Liquids Reference Collection (ILRC). These measurements are assembled into a preliminary database. From this selection, we discuss the significance and forensic application of the temperature data grid and the composition explicit data channel of the ADC. PMID:26401423

  20. Seasonal patterns in Arctic prasinophytes and inferred ecology of Bathycoccus unveiled in an Arctic winter metagenome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joli, Nathalie; Monier, Adam; Logares, Ramiro; Lovejoy, Connie

    2017-06-01

    Prasinophytes occur in all oceans but rarely dominate phytoplankton populations. In contrast, a single ecotype of the prasinophyte Micromonas is frequently the most abundant photosynthetic taxon reported in the Arctic from summer through autumn. However, seasonal dynamics of prasinophytes outside of this period are little known. To address this, we analyzed high-throughput V4 18S rRNA amplicon data collected from November to July in the Amundsen Gulf Region, Beaufort Sea, Arctic. Surprisingly during polar sunset in November and December, we found a high proportion of reads from both DNA and RNA belonging to another prasinophyte, Bathycoccus. We then analyzed a metagenome from a December sample and the resulting Bathycoccus metagenome assembled genome (MAG) covered ~90% of the Bathycoccus Ban7 reference genome. In contrast, only ~20% of a reference Micromonas genome was found in the metagenome. Our phylogenetic analysis of marker genes placed the Arctic Bathycoccus in the B1 coastal clade. In addition, substitution rates of 129 coding DNA sequences were ~1.6% divergent between the Arctic MAG and coastal Chilean upwelling MAGs and 17.3% between it and a South East Atlantic open ocean MAG in the B2 Clade. The metagenomic analysis also revealed a winter viral community highly skewed toward viruses targeting Micromonas, with a much lower diversity of viruses targeting Bathycoccus. Overall a combination of Micromonas being relatively less able to maintain activity under dark winter conditions and viral suppression of Micromonas may have contributed to the success of Bathycoccus in the Amundsen Gulf during winter.

  1. The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Katia De Avila

    My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino

  2. The Effect of Weather Events on Truck Traffic Patterns Using Fixed and Mobile Traffic Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-20

    Connected vehicle applications related to road weather management and enabling systems are being designed to collect and take advantage of connected vehicle data and information transmissions to increase situational awareness, improve roadway levels ...

  3. Spatial patterns and controls of soil chemical weathering rates along a transient hillslope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, K.; Mudd, S.M.; Sanderman, J.; Amundson, Ronald; Blum, A.

    2009-01-01

    Hillslopes have been intensively studied by both geomorphologists and soil scientists. Whereas geomorphologists have focused on the physical soil production and transport on hillslopes, soil scientists have been concerned with the topographic variation of soil geochemical properties. We combined these differing approaches and quantified soil chemical weathering rates along a grass covered hillslope in Coastal California. The hillslope is comprised of both erosional and depositional sections. In the upper eroding section, soil production is balanced by physical erosion and chemical weathering. The hillslope then transitions to a depositional slope where soil accumulates due to a historical reduction of channel incision at the hillslope's base. Measurements of hillslope morphology and soil thickness were combined with the elemental composition of the soil and saprolite, and interpreted through a process-based model that accounts for both chemical weathering and sediment transport. Chemical weathering of the minerals as they moved downslope via sediment transport imparted spatial variation in the geochemical properties of the soil. Inverse modeling of the field and laboratory data revealed that the long-term soil chemical weathering rates peak at 5 g m- 2 yr- 1 at the downslope end of the eroding section and decrease to 1.5 g m- 2 yr- 1 within the depositional section. In the eroding section, soil chemical weathering rates appear to be primarily controlled by the rate of mineral supply via colluvial input from upslope. In the depositional slope, geochemical equilibrium between soil water and minerals appeared to limit the chemical weathering rate. Soil chemical weathering was responsible for removing 6% of the soil production in the eroding section and 5% of colluvial influx in the depositional slope. These were among the lowest weathering rates reported for actively eroding watersheds, which was attributed to the parent material with low amount of weatherable

  4. A successful forecast of an El Nino winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.

    1992-01-01

    This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance

  5. Patterns of impact in the weatherization assistance program: A closer look

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L.G.; Brown, M.A.

    1994-06-01

    In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a nationwide evaluation of the Weatherization Program. The second phase of the Single-Family Study, which is the subject of this report, is part of this coordinated evaluation effort. In the first chapter the goals and overall design of the study are presented. Chapter 2 discussed methodology, the sample selection process, and data collection procedures. The following chapters (3, 4, and 5) compare the four sets of comparison groups. In Chapter 3, the results of extensive descriptions and measurements of dwelling characteristics, and of blower door, heating system efficiency, and carbon monoxide (CO) tests are compared for control, weatherized, and treated dwellings. In Chapter 4, characteristics of weatherized dwellings with especially high versus those with especially low energy savings are examined. Dwelling characteristic, the presence and amounts of specific weatherization measures, and occupant characteristics and behaviors are examined as factors that may explain variations in energy savings. Chapter 5 presents comparisons of pairs of higher- versus lower-savings agencies in each of several climate regions. These comparison examined differences in housing stocks, service delivery procedures, weatherization measures installed, and allocation of agency funds. The focus here is on the identification of more and less effective weatherization practices and of promising future directions for the Program. This report adds to the earlier one by comparing the practices of lower-savings agencies with those of the higher-saving ones. Chapter 6 compares occupant perceptions of comfort, health, safety, and energy affordability for the weatherized versus control group clients, for the high- versus low-saving dwellings, and the higher-versus lower-saving agencies. Chapter 7 summarizes this study`s findings and presents recommendations.

  6. Differentiation of organic and non-organic winter wheat cultivars from a controlled field trial by crystallization patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Johannes; Busscher, Nicolaas; Mergardt, Gaby; Mäder, Paul; Torp, Torfinn; Ploeger, Angelika

    2015-01-01

    There is a need for authentication tools in order to verify the existing certification system. Recently, markers for analytical authentication of organic products were evaluated. Herein, crystallization with additives was described as an interesting fingerprint approach which needs further evidence, based on a standardized method and well-documented sample origin. The fingerprint of wheat cultivars from a controlled field trial is generated from structure analysis variables of crystal patterns. Method performance was tested on factors such as crystallization chamber, day of experiment and region of interest of the patterns. Two different organic treatments and two different treatments of the non-organic regime can be grouped together in each of three consecutive seasons. When the k-nearest-neighbor classification method was applied, approximately 84% of Runal samples and 95% of Titlis samples were classified correctly into organic and non-organic origin using cross-validation. Crystallization with additive offers an interesting complementary fingerprint method for organic wheat samples. When the method is applied to winter wheat from the DOK trial, organic and non-organic treated samples can be differentiated significantly based on pattern recognition. Therefore crystallization with additives seems to be a promising tool in organic wheat authentication. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  7. Phytoplankton pigment patterns and community composition in the northern South China Sea during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Hongchang; Ning, Xiuren; Tang, Xuexi; Hao, Qiang; Le, Fengfeng; Qiao, Jing

    2011-03-01

    Phytoplankton pigment patterns and community composition were investigated in the northern South China Sea using high-performance liquid chromatography and the CHEMTAX software from February 11 to 23, 2009. We recognized four different vertical distribution patterns of pigments: chlorophyll a (Chi a)-like type, divinyl chlorophyll a (DV Chi a) type, even distribution type, and surface type. The average value of ratios of accessory photo-protective pigments (APP) to accessory photo-synthetic pigments was 0.89±0.63 in the upper 50 m and 0.16±0.06 below 50 m depth. With increasing depth, APP decreased and photo-synthetically active radiation was attenuated. There was an obvious succession in the phytoplankton community from inshore to the open sea. Diatoms were dominant in the inshore region, while pelagophytes, Prochlorococcus, cyanobacteria and prymnesiophytes were dominant in the open sea. The vertical distribution of phytoplankton also differed greatly from inshore to the open sea. In the coastal and shelf region, diatoms were important components in the whole water column. Cyanobacteria also had a high abundance at the Subsurface Chlorophyll a Maxima (SCM) in the shelf region. In the slope and open sea, Prochlorococcus and cyanobacteria were important groups above the SCM, while pelagophytes dominated below the SCM.

  8. Coupled climate model simulations of Mediterranean winter cyclones and large-scale flow patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ziv

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to evaluate the ability of global, coupled climate models to reproduce the synoptic regime of the Mediterranean Basin. The output of simulations of the 9 models included in the IPCC CMIP3 effort is compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalyzed data for the period 1961–1990. The study examined the spatial distribution of cyclone occurrence, the mean Mediterranean upper- and lower-level troughs, the inter-annual variation and trend in the occurrence of the Mediterranean cyclones, and the main large-scale circulation patterns, represented by rotated EOFs of 500 hPa and sea level pressure. The models reproduce successfully the two maxima in cyclone density in the Mediterranean and their locations, the location of the average upper- and lower-level troughs, the relative inter-annual variation in cyclone occurrences and the structure of the four leading large scale EOFs. The main discrepancy is the models' underestimation of the cyclone density in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part. The models' skill in reproducing the cyclone distribution is found correlated with their spatial resolution, especially in the vertical. The current improvement in model spatial resolution suggests that their ability to reproduce the Mediterranean cyclones would be improved as well.

  9. Distribution pattern of picoplankton carbon biomass linked to mesoscale dynamics in the southern gulf of Mexico during winter conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linacre, Lorena; Lara-Lara, Rubén; Camacho-Ibar, Víctor; Herguera, Juan Carlos; Bazán-Guzmán, Carmen; Ferreira-Bartrina, Vicente

    2015-12-01

    In order to characterize the carbon biomass spatial distribution of autotrophic and heterotrophic picoplankton populations linked to mesoscale dynamics, an investigation over an extensive open-ocean region of the southern Gulf of Mexico (GM) was conducted. Seawater samples from the mixed layer were collected during wintertime (February-March 2013). Picoplankton populations were counted and sorted using flow cytometry analyses. Carbon biomass was assessed based on in situ cell abundances and conversion factors from the literature. Approximately 46% of the total picoplankton biomass was composed of three autotrophic populations (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and pico-eukaryotes), while 54% consisted of heterotrophic bacteria populations. Prochlorococcus spp. was the most abundant pico-primary producer (>80%), and accounted for more than 60% of the total pico-autotrophic biomass. The distribution patterns of picoplankton biomass were strongly associated with the mesoscale dynamics that modulated the hydrographic conditions of the surface mixed layer. The main features of the carbon distribution pattern were: (1) the deepening of picoplankton biomass to layers closer to the nitracline base in anticyclonic eddies; (2) the shoaling of picoplankton biomass in cyclonic eddies, constraining the autoprokaryote biomasses to the upper layers, as well as accumulating the pico-eukaryote biomass in the cold core of the eddies; and (3) the increase of heterotrophic bacteria biomass in frontal regions between counter-paired anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies. Factors related to nutrient preferences and light conditions may as well have contributed to the distribution pattern of the microbial populations. The findings reveal the great influence of the mesoscale dynamics on the distribution of picoplankton populations within the mixed layer. Moreover, the significance of microbial components (especially Prochlorococcus) in the southern GM during winter conditions was revealed

  10. Urgency for sustainable development in coastal urban areas with reference to weather pattern, land use, and water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheela, A M; Letha, J; Swarnalatha, K; Baiju, K V; Sankar, Divya

    2014-05-01

    Water pollution is one of the most critical problems affecting mankind. Weather pattern and land use of catchment area have significant role in quality of water bodies. Due to climate change, there is frequent variation in weather pattern all over the world. There is also rapid change in land use due to increase in population and urbanization. The study was carried out to analyze the effect of change in weather pattern during the monsoon periods of 2008 and 2012 on water quality of a tropical coastal lake system. The nature and extent of variation in different water quality parameters namely electrical conductivity (EC), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), sulphate (SO4), turbidity, Secchi disk depth, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), phosphate (PO4), calcium (Ca), and water temperature as well as the effect of various land use activities in the lake basin on water quality have also been studied. There is significant reduction in precipitation, EC, Mg, Na, Cl, SO4, turbidity, and Secchi disk depths whereas a significant rise in the BOD, PO4, Ca, and water temperature were observed in 2012. This significant reduction in electrical conductivity during 2012 revealed that because of less precipitation, the lake was separated from the sea by the sandbar during most of the monsoon period and thereby interrupted the natural flushing process. This caused the accumulation of organic matter including phosphate and thereby resulting reduction in clarity and chlorophyll-a (algae) in the lake. The unsustainable development activities of Thiruvanathapuram city are mainly responsible for the degradation of water bodies. The lack of maintenance and augmentation activities namely replacement of old pipes and periodical cleaning of pipe lines of the old sewer system in the city results in the bypass of sewage into water bodies. Because of the existence of the old sewerage system, no effort has been taken by the individual establishment/house of the city to provide their own

  11. Regional severe particle pollution and its association with synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Lei; Xie, Min; Gao, Da; Wang, Tijian; Fang, Dexian; Liu, Qian; Huang, Anning; Peng, Liwen

    2017-11-01

    Regional air pollution is significantly associated with dominant weather systems. In this study, the relationship between the particle pollution over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and weather patterns is investigated. First, the pollution characteristics of particles in the YRD are studied using in situ monitoring data (PM2.5 and PM10) in 16 cities and Terra/MODIS AOD (aerosol optical depth) products collected from December 2013 to November 2014. The results show that the regional mean value of AOD is high in the YRD, with an annual mean value of 0.71±0.57. The annual mean particle concentrations in the cities of Jiangsu Province all exceed the national air quality standard. The pollution level is higher in inland areas, and the highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are 79 and 130 µg m-3, respectively, in Nanjing. The PM2.5 : PM10 ratios are typically high, thus indicating that PM2.5 is the overwhelmingly dominant particle pollutant in the YRD. The wintertime peak of particle concentrations is tightly linked to the increased emissions during the heating season as well as adverse meteorological conditions. Second, based on NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, synoptic weather classification is conducted and five typical synoptic patterns are objectively identified. Finally, the synthetic analysis of meteorological fields and backward trajectories are applied to further clarify how these patterns impact particle concentrations. It is demonstrated that air pollution is more or less influenced by high-pressure systems. The relative position of the YRD to the anti-cyclonic circulation exerts significant effects on the air quality of the YRD. The YRD is largely influenced by polluted air masses from the northern and the southern inland areas when it is located at the rear of the East Asian major trough. The significant downward motion of air masses results in stable weather conditions, thereby hindering the diffusion of air

  12. Migratory patterns and population structure among breeding and wintering red-breasted mergansers (Mergus serrator) and common mergansers (M. merganser)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, J.M.; McCracken, K.G.; Christensen, Thomas K.; Zhuravlev, Y.N.

    2009-01-01

    Philopatry has long been assumed to structure populations of waterfowl and other species of birds genetically, especially via maternally transmitted mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), yet other migratory behaviors and nesting ecology (use of ground vs. cavity sites) may also contribute to population genetic structure. We investigated the effects of migration and nesting ecology on the population genetic structure of two Holarctic waterfowl, the Red-breasted Merganser (Mergus serrator) and Common Merganser (M. merganser), using mtDNA control-region sequence data. Red-breasted Mergansers (a ground-nesting species) exhibited lower levels of population differentiation across their North American range, possibly as a result of post-Pleistocene range expansion and population growth. By contrast, Common Mergansers (a cavity-nesting species) breeding in western and eastern North America were strongly differentiated, as were continental groups in North America and Europe. Our hypothesis that population differentiation of breeding female Common Mergansers results from limited migration during non-breeding periods was not supported, in that equally heterogeneous mtDNA lineages were observed in males and females on several wintering areas. The interspecific differences in mtDNA patterns for these two closely related species may have resulted from factors related to nesting ecology (ground vs. cavity nesting) and responses to historical climate change.

  13. Effect of photochemical smog associated with synoptic weather patterns on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in metropolitan Taipei.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the relationship between photochemical smog (PS) (hourly ozone conc. >100 ppb), PS-related diseases, and the synoptic weather patterns during 2005-2009 in metropolitan Taipei. The results show that compared to respiratory ailments (ICD code 460-519) and asthma (ICD code 493), cardiovascular ailments (ICD code 390-459) were more clearly influenced by PS events. On the PS event day, the number of admissions of babies, children, and adults increased by 0.04 [95% CI 0.01-0.06], 0.03 [95% CI 0.00-0.07], and 1.12 [95% CI 0.36-1.89] (P < 0.05), respectively. The investigation showed that more than 70% of the PS events were associated primarily with the peripheral circulation of typhoons, Pacific pressure, and discrete Pacific pressure. PS events are a threat to public health. To avoid the ill effects of air pollution, residents should be informed about the daily weather patterns and air quality.

  14. A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

    2013-04-01

    In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

  15. Molecular characterization of three Hsp90 from Pieris and expression patterns in response to cold and thermal stress in summer and winter diapause of Pieris melete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yue-Kun; Zou, Chao; Fu, Dao-Meng; Zhang, Wan-Na; Xiao, Hai-Jun

    2018-04-01

    Heat shock proteins (Hsps) have been linked to stresses and winter diapause in insects, but whether they are components of summer diapause is still unknown. In this study, complementary DNAs of Hsp90 from Pieris melete, Pieris rapae and Pieris canidia named PmHsp90, PrHsp90 and PcHsp90, respectively, were cloned and sequenced. The deduced amino acid sequence consisted of 718 amino acid residues with a putative molecular mass of 82.6, 82.6 and 82.7 kDa, respectively. The amino acid sequences contained all of the five conserved signature motifs in the Hsp90 family and a bHLH protein folding activity region. The differential expression pattern of PmHsp90 in response to summer diapause and winter diapause, which are related to heat/cold stress, was investigated. Cold stress induced Hsp90 up-regulation in summer and winter diapause pupae, but not in non-diapause individuals. Heat shock up-regulated PmHsp90 gradually with an increase in temperature in summer diapause, and PmHsp90 was rapidly up-regulated in winter diapause. After 30 min heat shock at 39°C, substantial up-regulation of PmHsp90 transcript levels were observed both in summer and winter diapause. However, in non-diapause a relatively stable expression was found under different durations of 39°C heat shock. Compared to the optimal treatment of 18°C for diapause development, a high temperature acclimation of 31°C induced PmHsp90 up-regulation in summer diapause, whereas a low temperature acclimation of 4°C induced up-regulation in winter diapause. The current results indicate that Hsp90 may play an important role in response to heat/cold stress both in summer and winter diapause. © 2016 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  16. Late Cenozoic deep weathering patterns on the Fennoscandian shield in northern Finland: A window on ice sheet bed conditions at the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Adrian M.; Sarala, Pertti; Ebert, Karin

    2015-10-01

    The nature of the regolith that existed on the shields of the Northern Hemisphere at the onset of ice sheet glaciation is poorly constrained. In this paper, we provide the first detailed account of an exceptionally preserved, deeply weathered late Neogene landscape in the ice sheet divide zone in northern Finland. We mine data sets of drilling and pitting records gathered by the Geological Survey of Finland to reconstruct regional preglacial deep weathering patterns within a GIS framework. Using a large geochemical data set, we give standardised descriptions of saprolite geochemistry using a variant of the Weathering Index of Parker (WIP) as a proxy to assess the intensity of weathering. We also focus on mineral prospects and mines with dense pit and borehole data coverage in order to identify links between geology, topography, and weathering. Geology is closely linked to topography on the preglacial shield landscape of northern Finland and both factors influence weathering patterns. Upstanding, resistant granulite, granite, gabbro, metabasalt, and quartzite rocks were associated with fresh rock outcrops, including tors, or with thin (floors developed along mineralised shear and fracture zones, weathering penetrated locally to depths of > 50 m and included intensely weathered kaolinitic clays with WIPfines values below 1000. Late Neogene weathering profiles were varied in character. Tripartite clay-gruss-saprock profiles occur only in limited areas. Bipartite gruss-saprock profiles were widespread, with saprock thicknesses of > 10 m. Weathering profiles included two discontinuities in texture, materials and resistance to erosion, between saprolite and saprock and between saprock and rock. Limited core recovery when drilling below the soil base in mixed rocks of the Tana Belt indicates that weathering locally penetrated deep below upper fresh rock layers. Such deep-seated weathered bands in rock represent a third set of discontinuities. Incipient weathering and

  17. Irrigation as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: The Relative Influence of Groundwater and Canal Irrigation on Winter Crop Production and its Sensitivity to Weather Variability in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Fishman, R.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; Naeem, S.; Modi, V.; DeFries, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    India is a hotspot for food security issues over the upcoming decades, due to increasing population pressures, groundwater depletion, and climate change. Investing in additional irrigation infrastructure may bolster food security, however, the relative influence of different types of irrigation (e.g. groundwater versus canal) on agricultural production remains unclear. One reason that the relative impact of different irrigation strategies on agricultural production has not been analyzed across India is because national-scale data on crop production and the types of irrigation technologies used are typically available at too coarse of spatial and temporal resolutions to answer this question adequately. Thus, we develop a novel algorithm to map cropped area across India at a 1 x 1 km scale using MODIS satellite data, and link these high-resolution cropped area maps with village-level data (n = 600,000) on irrigation. This allowed us to assess the relative impact of groundwater (i.e. dug, shallow, and deep wells) and canal irrigation (i.e. surface lift and flow canals) on winter cropped area and its sensitivity to rainfall across India at the village-scale from 2000 to 2006. We find that deep well irrigation is both associated with the greatest amount of winter cropped area, and is also the least sensitive to monsoon and winter rainfall variability. However, the effectiveness of deep well irrigation varies across India, with the greatest benefits seen in the regions that are most at risk for losing groundwater as a possible source of irrigation over the upcoming decades (e.g. Northwest India). This work highlights the need to develop ways to use remaining groundwater more efficiently (e.g. drip irrigation, less water-intensive crops) given that canal irrigation is not an adequate substitute, particularly in the regions that are facing the greatest levels of groundwater depletion.

  18. Race-Specific Adult-Plant Resistance in Winter Wheat to Stripe Rust and Characterization of Pathogen Virulence Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milus, Eugene A; Moon, David E; Lee, Kevin D; Mason, R Esten

    2015-08-01

    Stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, is an important disease of wheat in the Great Plains and southeastern United States. Growing resistant cultivars is the preferred means for managing stripe rust, but new virulence in the pathogen population overcomes some of the resistance. The objectives of this study were to characterize the stripe rust resistance in contemporary soft and hard red winter wheat cultivars, to characterize the virulence of P. striiformis f. sp. tritici isolates based on the resistances found in the cultivars, and to determine wheat breeders' perceptions on the importance and methods for achieving stripe rust resistance. Seedlings of cultivars were susceptible to recent isolates, indicating they lacked effective all-stage resistance. However, adult-plants were resistant or susceptible depending on the isolate, indicating they had race-specific adult-plant resistance. Using isolates collected from 1990 to 2013, six major virulence patterns were identified on adult plants of twelve cultivars that were selected as adult-plant differentials. Race-specific adult-plant resistance appears to be the only effective type of resistance protecting wheat from stripe rust in eastern United States. Among wheat breeders, the importance of incorporating stripe rust resistance into cultivars ranged from high to low depending on the frequency of epidemics in their region, and most sources of stripe rust resistance were either unknown or already overcome by virulence in the pathogen population. Breeders with a high priority for stripe rust resistance made most of their selections based on adult-plant reactions in the field, whereas breeders with a low priority for resistance based selections on molecular markers for major all-stage resistance genes.

  19. Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek

    2013-07-01

    A 2-year study (2010-2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m(2)/year. In 2011, over 51% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86% of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F(-) concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F(-) concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500-5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.

  20. Patterns of leaf morphology and leaf N content in relation to winter temperatures in three evergreen tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediavilla, Sonia; Gallardo-López, Victoria; González-Zurdo, Patricia; Escudero, Alfonso

    2012-09-01

    The competitive equilibrium between deciduous and perennial species in a new scenario of climate change may depend closely on the productivity of leaves along the different seasons of the year and on the morphological and chemical adaptations required for leaf survival during the different seasons. The aim of the present work was to analyze such adaptations in the leaves of three evergreen species ( Quercus ilex, Q. suber and Pinus pinaster) and their responses to between-site differences in the intensity of winter harshness. We explore the hypothesis that the harshness of winter would contribute to enhancing the leaf traits that allow them to persist under conditions of stress. The results revealed that as winter harshness increases a decrease in leaf size occurs in all three species, together with an increase in the content of nitrogen per unit leaf area and a greater leaf mass per unit area, which seems to be achieved only through increased thickness, with no associated changes in density. P. pinaster was the species with the most intense response to the harshening of winter conditions, undergoing a more marked thickening of its needles than the two Quercus species. Our findings thus suggest that lower winter temperatures involve an increase in the cost of leaf production of evergreen species, which must be taken into account in the estimation of the final cost and benefit balance of evergreens. Such cost increases would be more pronounced for those species that, like P. pinaster, show a stronger response to the winter cold.

  1. Trends in adverse weather patterns and large wildland fires in Aragón (NE Spain from 1978 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cardil

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This work analyzes the effects of high temperature days on large wildland fires during 1978–2010 in Aragón (NE Spain. A high temperature day was established when air temperature was higher than 20 °C at 850 hPa. Temperature at 850 hPa was chosen because it properly characterizes the low troposphere state, and some of the problems that affect surface reanalysis do not occur. High temperature days were analyzed from April to October in the study period, and the number of these extreme days increased significantly. This temporal trend implied more frequent adverse weather conditions in later years that could facilitate extreme fire behavior. The effects of those high temperatures days in large wildland fire patterns have been increasingly important in the last years of the series.

  2. Cultural variation in seasonal depression: cross-national differences in winter versus summer patterns of seasonal affective disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasof, Joseph

    2009-05-01

    Research suggests that two dimensions of national culture, individualism-collectivism and power distance, predict affective responses to the seasonally varying levels of ambient sunlight that may underlie regular cycles of mood and behavior in Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). Specifically, negative affect is predicted by the diminished sunlight of fall-winter in countries higher in individualism and lower in power distance, and by the increased sunlight of spring-summer in countries lower in individualism and higher in power distance. This study tests whether individualism correlates positively, and power distance negatively, with the frequency of winter-SAD relative to that of summer-SAD. A search for studies reporting frequencies of both winter-SAD and summer-SAD identified 55 samples encompassing 18 countries and 38,408 participants, including 1931 with SAD. The frequency of winter-SAD, relative to that of summer-SAD, correlated positively with individualism (r=.67, p=.001) and negatively with power distance (r=-.72, p=.0001). Countries in which winter-SAD was more common than summer-SAD were significantly more individualistic and less power-distant than countries in which summer-SAD was more common than winter-SAD. Results survived various tests of threats to validity. The study is limited by the quantity, quality, diversity, and representativeness of the research under review and by its correlational design. Individualism and power distance are strongly related to the relative prevalence of winter-SAD and summer-SAD. Culture may play an important but previously overlooked role in the etiology of SAD.

  3. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王良华

    2007-01-01

    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  4. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  5. A closer look at the relationships between meridional mass circulation pulses in the stratosphere and cold air outbreak patterns in northern hemispheric winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai; Rao, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between continental-scale cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the mid-latitudes and pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) is investigated using ERA-Interim data for the 32 winters from 1979 to 2011. Pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation include "PULSE_TOT", "PULSE_W1", and "PULSE_W2" events, defined as a period of stronger meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by total flow, wavenumber-1, and wavenumber-2, respectively. Each type of PULSE event occurs on average 4-6 times per winter. A robust relationship is found between two dominant patterns of winter CAOs and PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. Cold temperature anomalies tend to occur over Eurasia with the other continent anomalously warm during the 2 weeks before the peak dates of PULSE_W1 events, while the opposite temperature anomaly pattern can be found after the peak dates; and during the 1-2 weeks centered on the peak dates of PULSE_W2 events, a higher probability of occurrence of CAOs is found over both continents. These relationships become more robust for PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events of larger peak intensity. PULSE_TOT events are classified into five types, which have a distinct coupling relationship with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The specific pattern of CAOs associated with each type of PULSE_TOT event is found to be a combination of the CAO patterns associated with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The percentage of PULSE_TOT events belonging to the types that are dominated by PULSE_W2 events increases with the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events. Accordingly, the related CAO pattern is close to that associated with PULSE_W1 for PULSE_TOT events with small-to-medium intensity, but tends to resemble that associated with PULSE_W2 events as the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events increases.

  6. WINTER SAECULUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  7. Proximate weather patterns and spring green-up phenology effect Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) body mass and reproductive success: the implications of climate change and topography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ruairidh D; Newman, Chris; Macdonald, David W; Rosell, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Low spring temperatures have been found to benefit mobile herbivores by reducing the rate of spring-flush, whereas high rainfall increases forage availability. Cold winters prove detrimental, by increasing herbivore thermoregulatory burdens. Here we examine the effects of temperature and rainfall variability on a temperate sedentary herbivore, the Eurasian beaver, Castor fiber, in terms of inter-annual variation in mean body weight and per territory offspring production. Data pertain to 198 individuals, over 11 years, using capture-mark-recapture. We use plant growth (tree cores) and fAPAR (a satellite-derived plant productivity index) to examine potential mechanisms through which weather conditions affect the availability and the seasonal phenology of beaver forage. Juvenile body weights were lighter after colder winters, whereas warmer spring temperatures were associated with lighter adult body weights, mediated by enhanced green-up phenology rates. Counter-intuitively, we observed a negative association between rainfall and body weight in juveniles and adults, and also with reproductive success. Alder, Alnus incana, (n = 68) growth rings (principal beaver food in the study area) exhibited a positive relationship with rainfall for trees growing at elevations >2 m above water level, but a negative relationship for trees growing beavers at the landscape scale via effects on spring green-up phenology and winter thermoregulation. Rainfall influences beavers at finer spatial scales through topographical interactions with plant growth, where trees near water level, prone to water logging, producing poorer forage in wetter years. Unlike most other herbivores, beavers are an obligate aquatic species that utilize a restricted 'central-place' foraging range, limiting their ability to take advantage of better forage growth further from water during wetter years. With respect to anthropogenic climate change, interactions between weather variables, plant phenology and

  8. Seasonal Patterns of Soil Respiration and Related Soil Biochemical Properties under Nitrogen Addition in Winter Wheat Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Guopeng; Houssou, Albert A.; Wu, Huijun; Cai, Dianxiong; Wu, Xueping; Gao, Lili; Li, Jing; Wang, Bisheng; Li, Shengping

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the changes of soil respiration under increasing N fertilizer in cropland ecosystems is crucial to accurately predicting global warming. This study explored seasonal variations of soil respiration and its controlling biochemical properties under a gradient of Nitrogen addition during two consecutive winter wheat growing seasons (2013–2015). N was applied at four different levels: 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha-1 year-1 (denoted as N0, N12, N18 and N24, respectively). Soil respiration exhibited significant seasonal variation and was significantly affected by soil temperature with Q10 ranging from 2.04 to 2.46 and from 1.49 to 1.53 during 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 winter wheat growing season, respectively. Soil moisture had no significant effect on soil respiration during 2013–2014 winter wheat growing season but showed a significant and negative correlation with soil respiration during 2014–2015 winter wheat growing season. Soil respiration under N24 treatment was significantly higher than N0 treatment. Averaged over the two growing seasons, N12, N18 and N24 significantly increased soil respiration by 13.4, 16.4 and 25.4% compared with N0, respectively. N addition also significantly increased easily extractable glomalin-related soil protein (EEG), soil organic carbon (SOC), total N, ammonium N and nitrate N contents. In addition, soil respiration was significantly and positively correlated with β-glucosidase activity, EEG, SOC, total N, ammonium N and nitrate N contents. The results indicated that high N fertilization improved soil chemical properties, but significantly increased soil respiration. PMID:26629695

  9. Patterns of North African dust transport over the Atlantic: winter vs. summer, based on CALIPSO first year data

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Ben-Ami; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2009-01-01

    One of the most important factors that determine the transported dust effect on the atmosphere is its vertical distribution. In this study the vertical structure of North African dust and stratiform low clouds is analyzed over the Atlantic Ocean for the 2006–2007 boreal winter (December–February) and boreal summer of 2006 (June–August). By using the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) backscatter measurements over the dust routes, we describe the differ...

  10. Seasonal Patterns of Soil Respiration and Related Soil Biochemical Properties under Nitrogen Addition in Winter Wheat Field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Guopeng; Houssou, Albert A; Wu, Huijun; Cai, Dianxiong; Wu, Xueping; Gao, Lili; Li, Jing; Wang, Bisheng; Li, Shengping

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the changes of soil respiration under increasing N fertilizer in cropland ecosystems is crucial to accurately predicting global warming. This study explored seasonal variations of soil respiration and its controlling biochemical properties under a gradient of Nitrogen addition during two consecutive winter wheat growing seasons (2013-2015). N was applied at four different levels: 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) (denoted as N0, N12, N18 and N24, respectively). Soil respiration exhibited significant seasonal variation and was significantly affected by soil temperature with Q10 ranging from 2.04 to 2.46 and from 1.49 to 1.53 during 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter wheat growing season, respectively. Soil moisture had no significant effect on soil respiration during 2013-2014 winter wheat growing season but showed a significant and negative correlation with soil respiration during 2014-2015 winter wheat growing season. Soil respiration under N24 treatment was significantly higher than N0 treatment. Averaged over the two growing seasons, N12, N18 and N24 significantly increased soil respiration by 13.4, 16.4 and 25.4% compared with N0, respectively. N addition also significantly increased easily extractable glomalin-related soil protein (EEG), soil organic carbon (SOC), total N, ammonium N and nitrate N contents. In addition, soil respiration was significantly and positively correlated with β-glucosidase activity, EEG, SOC, total N, ammonium N and nitrate N contents. The results indicated that high N fertilization improved soil chemical properties, but significantly increased soil respiration.

  11. Patterns of North African dust transport over the Atlantic: winter vs. summer, based on CALIPSO first year data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Ben-Ami

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important factors that determine the transported dust effect on the atmosphere is its vertical distribution. In this study the vertical structure of North African dust and stratiform low clouds is analyzed over the Atlantic Ocean for the 2006–2007 boreal winter (December–February and boreal summer of 2006 (June–August. By using the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO backscatter measurements over the dust routes, we describe the differences in dust transport between the seasons. We show a bi-modal distribution of the average dust plumes height in both seasons (it is less clear in the winter. The higher plume top height is 5.1±0.4 km, near the African coast line in the summer and 3.7±0.4 km in the winter. The lower plume merges with the marine boundary layer, in both seasons. Our study suggests that a significant part of the dust is transported near and within the marine boundary layer and interacts with low stratiform clouds.

  12. Degradation patterns of natural and synthetic textiles on a soil surface during summer and winter seasons studied using ATR-FTIR spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueland, Maiken; Howes, Johanna M.; Forbes, Shari L.; Stuart, Barbara H.

    2017-10-01

    Textiles are a valuable source of forensic evidence and the nature and condition of textiles collected from a crime scene can assist investigators in determining the nature of the death and aid in the identification of the victim. Until now, much of the knowledge of textile degradation in forensic contexts has been based on the visual inspection of material collected from soil environments. The purpose of the current study was to investigate the potential of a more quantitative approach to the understanding of forensic textile degradation through the application of infrared spectroscopy. Degradation patterns of natural and synthetic textile materials as they were subjected to a natural outdoor environment in Australia were investigated. Cotton, polyester and polyester - cotton blend textiles were placed on a soil surface during the summer and winter seasons and were analysed over periods 1 and 1.5 years, respectively, and examined using attenuated total reflectance (ATR) spectroscopy. Statistical analysis of the spectral data obtained for the cotton material correlated with visual degradation and a difference in the onset of degradation between the summer and winter season was revealed. The synthetic material did not show any signs of degradation either visually or statistically throughout the experimental period and highlighted the importance of material type in terms of preservation. The cotton section from the polyester - cotton blend samples was found to behave in a similar manner to that of the 100% cotton samples, however principal component analysis (PCA) demonstrated that the degradation patterns were less distinct in both the summer and winter trial for the blend samples. These findings indicated that the presence of the synthetic material may have inhibited the degradation of the natural material. The use of statistics to analyse the spectral data obtained for textiles of forensic interest provides a better foundation for the interpretation of the data

  13. Advanced decision support for winter road maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    This document provides an overview of the Federal Highway Administration's winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS is a decision support tool that has the ability to provide weather predictions focused toward the road surface. The...

  14. Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sietz, D.; Mamani Choque, S.E.; Lûdeke, M.K.B.

    2012-01-01

    Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’

  15. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  16. How to Have a Healthy Winter | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Without a doubt, winter is here. Between the icy weather and the recent hustle and bustle of the holidays, everyone is at an increased risk of getting sick. With that in mind, Occupational Health Services has a few simple tips for staying healthy this winter.

  17. A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djennad, Abdelmajid; Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Sarran, Christophe; Fleming, Lora E; Kessel, Anthony; Haines, Andy; Nichols, Gordon L

    2018-04-27

    To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory. There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum

  18. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  19. Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

    2018-03-01

    Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

  20. Application of change-point analysis to determine winter sleep patterns of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) from body temperature recordings and a multi-faceted dietary and behavioral study of wintering

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A multi-faceted approach was used to investigate the wintertime ecophysiology and behavioral patterns of the raccoon dog, Nyctereutes procyonoides, a suitable model for winter sleep studies. By utilizing GPS tracking, activity sensors, body temperature (Tb) recordings, change-point analysis (CPA), home range, habitat and dietary analyses, as well as fatty acid signatures (FAS), the impact of the species on wintertime food webs was assessed. The timing of passive bouts was determined with multiple methods and compared to Tb data analyzed by CPA. Results Raccoon dogs displayed wintertime mobility, and the home range sizes determined by GPS were similar or larger than previous estimates by radio tracking. The preferred habitats were gardens, shores, deciduous forests, and sparsely forested areas. Fields had close to neutral preference; roads and railroads were utilized as travel routes. Raccoon dogs participated actively in the food web and gained benefit from human activity. Mammals, plants, birds, and discarded fish comprised the most important dietary classes, and the consumption of fish could be detected in FAS. Ambient temperature was an important external factor influencing Tb and activity. The timing of passive periods approximated by behavioral data and by CPA shared 91% similarity. Conclusions Passive periods can be determined with CPA from Tb recordings without the previously used time-consuming and expensive methods. It would be possible to recruit more animals by using the simple methods of data loggers and ear tags. Hunting could be used as a tool to return the ear-tagged individuals allowing the economical extension of follow-up studies. The Tb and CPA methods could be applied to other northern carnivores. PMID:23237274

  1. Application of change-point analysis to determine winter sleep patterns of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides from body temperature recordings and a multi-faceted dietary and behavioral study of wintering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustonen Anne-Mari

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A multi-faceted approach was used to investigate the wintertime ecophysiology and behavioral patterns of the raccoon dog, Nyctereutes procyonoides, a suitable model for winter sleep studies. By utilizing GPS tracking, activity sensors, body temperature (Tb recordings, change-point analysis (CPA, home range, habitat and dietary analyses, as well as fatty acid signatures (FAS, the impact of the species on wintertime food webs was assessed. The timing of passive bouts was determined with multiple methods and compared to Tb data analyzed by CPA. Results Raccoon dogs displayed wintertime mobility, and the home range sizes determined by GPS were similar or larger than previous estimates by radio tracking. The preferred habitats were gardens, shores, deciduous forests, and sparsely forested areas. Fields had close to neutral preference; roads and railroads were utilized as travel routes. Raccoon dogs participated actively in the food web and gained benefit from human activity. Mammals, plants, birds, and discarded fish comprised the most important dietary classes, and the consumption of fish could be detected in FAS. Ambient temperature was an important external factor influencing Tb and activity. The timing of passive periods approximated by behavioral data and by CPA shared 91% similarity. Conclusions Passive periods can be determined with CPA from Tb recordings without the previously used time-consuming and expensive methods. It would be possible to recruit more animals by using the simple methods of data loggers and ear tags. Hunting could be used as a tool to return the ear-tagged individuals allowing the economical extension of follow-up studies. The Tb and CPA methods could be applied to other northern carnivores.

  2. Application of change-point analysis to determine winter sleep patterns of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) from body temperature recordings and a multi-faceted dietary and behavioral study of wintering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustonen, Anne-Mari; Lempiäinen, Terttu; Aspelund, Mikko; Hellstedt, Paavo; Ikonen, Katri; Itämies, Juhani; Vähä, Ville; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Asikainen, Juha; Kunnasranta, Mervi; Niemelä, Pekka; Aho, Jari; Nieminen, Petteri

    2012-12-13

    A multi-faceted approach was used to investigate the wintertime ecophysiology and behavioral patterns of the raccoon dog, Nyctereutes procyonoides, a suitable model for winter sleep studies. By utilizing GPS tracking, activity sensors, body temperature (Tb) recordings, change-point analysis (CPA), home range, habitat and dietary analyses, as well as fatty acid signatures (FAS), the impact of the species on wintertime food webs was assessed. The timing of passive bouts was determined with multiple methods and compared to Tb data analyzed by CPA. Raccoon dogs displayed wintertime mobility, and the home range sizes determined by GPS were similar or larger than previous estimates by radio tracking. The preferred habitats were gardens, shores, deciduous forests, and sparsely forested areas. Fields had close to neutral preference; roads and railroads were utilized as travel routes. Raccoon dogs participated actively in the food web and gained benefit from human activity. Mammals, plants, birds, and discarded fish comprised the most important dietary classes, and the consumption of fish could be detected in FAS. Ambient temperature was an important external factor influencing Tb and activity. The timing of passive periods approximated by behavioral data and by CPA shared 91% similarity. Passive periods can be determined with CPA from Tb recordings without the previously used time-consuming and expensive methods. It would be possible to recruit more animals by using the simple methods of data loggers and ear tags. Hunting could be used as a tool to return the ear-tagged individuals allowing the economical extension of follow-up studies. The Tb and CPA methods could be applied to other northern carnivores.

  3. Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power

  4. Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven I-Jy Chien

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

  5. Joint-patterns, mechanical properties and weathering characteristics of selected, arid, continental deposits of the Colorado Plateau

    OpenAIRE

    Heienberg, Linn Therese

    2015-01-01

    The Colorado Plateau contains a stratigraphic sequence spanning from Precambrian to Tertiary in age, including a thick succession of Permian and Mesozoic strata that are well displayed in outcrops throughout southeastern Utah, USA. The appearances of these units, which are controlled by their weathering history, are all unique and pose the question: Why should units with similar depositional environment and burial history look so different?" The most pronounced ...

  6. Winter Wonderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Mary

    2011-01-01

    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  7. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  8. Vancouver winters: Environmental influences on inpatient adult orthopaedic trauma demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noordin, S.; Masri, B. A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare the pattern of adult inpatient orthopaedic injuries admitted at three Vancouver hospitals following one of the worst winter snowstorms in the region with the preceding control winter period. Methods: The surveillance study was conducted at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 2007 to 2010. Inpatient adult admissions for orthopaedic injuries at three hospitals were recorded, including age, gender, anatomic location of injury, type of fracture (open or closed), fixation method (internal versus external fixation), and length of acute care hospital stay. Comparisons between admissions during this weather pattern and admission during a previous winter with minimal snow were made. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Of the 511 patients admitted under Orthopaedic trauma service during the significant winter snowstorms of December 2008 - January 2009, 100 (19.6%) (CI: 16.2%-23.2%) were due to ice and snow, whereas in the preceding mild winter only 18 of 415 (4.3%) (CI: 2.5%-6.8%) cases were related to snow (p<0.05). Ankle and wrist fractures were the most frequent injuries during the index snow storm period (p<0.05). At all the three institutions, 97 (96.5%) fractures were closed during the snowstorm as opposed to 17 (95%) during the control winter period. Internal fixation in 06 (89%) fractures as opposed to external fixation in 12 (11%) patients was the predominant mode of fixation across the board during both time periods. Conclusion: The study demonstrated a significantly higher inpatient orthopaedic trauma volume during the snowstorm more rigorous prospective studies need to be designed to gain further insight to solving these problems from a public health perspective. (author)

  9. Black brant from Alaska staging and wintering in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derksen, Dirk V.; Bollinger, K.S.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, J.S.; Miyabayashi, Y.

    1996-01-01

    Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nest in colonies in arctic Canada, Alaska, and Russia (Derksen and Ward 1993, Sedinger et al. 1993). Virtually the entire population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula (Bellrose 1976) before southward migration (Dau 1992) to winter habitats in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California (Subcommittee on Black Brant 1992). A small number of black brant winter in Japan, Korea, and China (Owen 1980). In Japan 3,000–5,000 brant of unknown origin stop over in fall, and a declining population (in the northern islands (Brazil 1991, Miyabayashi et al. 1994). Here, we report sightings of brant in Japan that were marked in Alaska and propose a migration route based on historical and recent observations and weather patterns.

  10. Final Results from A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; King, David; Decicco, Nicolas; Prince, Alyssa; di Mercurio, Alexis; Rios, Manual

    2017-01-01

    Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. These vortices and turbulence are hazardous to other aircraft in the vicinity. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the final results of the pilot project to investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The findings from the historical data and the data simulations were used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) to show that the vortices could be simulated using OpenFoam. Presented here are the updated results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Stockton University and the FAA''.

  11. Endocrine basis of the reproductive pattern of the Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua): winter breeding and extended laying period in northern populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauget, R; Garcia, V; Jouventin, P

    1995-05-01

    Changes in plasma LH, prolactin, testosterone, estradiol, and progesterone were investigated throughout moult and reproduction in free-living male and female Gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) at Crozet Island (46 degrees S, 51 degrees E), where this species is able to relay after a reproductive failure. In both sexes, LH, prolactin, and steroid hormones, remained at basal levels during the moult. LH level was highest at the time of arrival at the colony for breeding and, although it decreased after courtship, it did not drop at basal value by incubation and first chick brooding period. Prolactin peaked for both chick brooding periods; replacement clutch was associated with an increased secretion of LH, whereas high prolactin levels were maintained. Testosterone, in male, and estradiol, in female, peaked during courtship I and chick brooding II; progesterone, in female, peaked during courtship I and II. These hormonal patterns are consistent with those observed in passerine species which are also able to relay after a reproductive failure. Winter breeding observed at Crozet Island might reflect the extreme adaptive capacity of Gentoo penguin species.

  12. AGA predicts winter jump in residential gas price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The American Gas Association predicts the average heating bill for residential gas consumers could increase by as much as 18% this winter. AGA Pres. Mike Baly said, Last year's winter was warmer than normal. If the 1992-93 winter is similar, AGA projects that residential natural gas heating bills will go up about 6%. If we see a return to normal winter weather, our projection show the average bill could rise by almost 18%

  13. The Effects of Weather Patterns on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of SO2 over East Asia as Seen from Satellite Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, L.; Li, C.; Dickerson, R. R.; Krotkov, N. A.

    2015-12-01

    Weather systems, particularly mid-latitude wave cyclones, have been known to play an important role in the short-term variation of near-surface air pollution. Ground measurements and model simulations have demonstrated that stagnant air and minimal precipitation associated with high pressure systems are conducive to pollutant accumulation. With the passage of a cold front, built up pollution is transported downwind of the emission sources or washed out by precipitation. This concept is important to note when studying long-term changes in spatio-temporal pollution distribution, but has not been studied in detail from space. In this study, we focus on East Asia (especially the industrialized eastern China), where numerous large power plants and other point sources as well as area sources emit large amounts of SO2, an important gaseous pollutant and a precursor of aerosols. Using data from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) we show that such weather driven distribution can indeed be discerned from satellite data by utilizing probability distribution functions (PDFs) of SO2 column content. These PDFs are multimodal and give insight into the background pollution level at a given location and contribution from local and upwind emission sources. From these PDFs it is possible to determine the frequency for a given region to have SO2 loading that exceeds the background amount. By comparing OMI-observed long-term change in the frequency with meteorological data, we can gain insights into the effects of climate change (e.g., the weakening of Asian monsoon) on regional air quality. Such insight allows for better interpretation of satellite measurements as well as better prediction of future pollution distribution as a changing climate gives way to changing weather patterns.

  14. MicroRadarNet: A network of weather micro radars for the identification of local high resolution precipitation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turso, S.; Paolella, S.; Gabella, M.; Perona, G.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, MicroRadarNet, a novel micro radar network for continuous, unattended meteorological monitoring is presented. Key aspects and constraints are introduced. Specific design strategies are highlighted, leading to the technological implementations of this wireless, low-cost, low power consumption sensor network. Raw spatial and temporal datasets are processed on-board in real-time, featuring a consistent evaluation of the signals from the sensors and optimizing the data loads to be transmitted. Network servers perform the final post-elaboration steps on the data streams coming from each unit. Final network products are meteorological mappings of weather events, monitored with high spatial and temporal resolution, and lastly served to the end user through any Web browser. This networked approach is shown to imply a sensible reduction of the overall operational costs, including management and maintenance aspects, if compared to the traditional long range monitoring strategy. Adoption of the TITAN storm identification and nowcasting engine is also here evaluated for in-loop integration within the MicroRadarNet data processing chain. A brief description of the engine workflow is provided, to present preliminary feasibility results and performance estimates. The outcomes were not so predictable, taking into account relevant operational differences between a Western Alps micro radar scenario and the long range radar context in the Denver region of Colorado. Finally, positive results from a set of case studies are discussed, motivating further refinements and integration activities.

  15. Payment mechanisms for winter road maintenance services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Abdi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In countries with severe winters a major part of the annual budget for road maintenance is allocated on performance of winter road maintenance tasks. Finding appropriate remuneration forms to compensate entrepreneurs for performed road measures during winter is not an easy task in order to minimise or eliminate disputes and satisfy both client organisations and contractors. On the other hand improper reimbursement models lead either to the client’s annual budget imbalance due to unnecessary cost overruns or affect contractor’s cash-flow. Such cases in turn affect just-in-time winter road maintenance and then traffic safety. To solve such problems, a number of countries in cold regions like Sweden have developed different remuneration models based more on weather data called Weather Index. Therefore the objective of this paper is to investigate and evaluate the payment models applied in Sweden. The study uses a number of approaches namely; domestic questionnaire survey, analysis of a number of contract documents, a series of meetings with the project managers and an international benchmarking. The study recognised four remuneration models for winter maintenance service of which one based on weather data statistics. The study reveals the payment model based on weather data statistics is only applied for the roads with higher traffic flow and the model generates most uncertainty.

  16. Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.; Stallard, Robert F.

    2011-07-01

    The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

  17. Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.

    2014-01-01

    Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

  18. Examining winter visitor use in Yellowstone National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mae A. Davenport; Wayne A. Freimund; William T. Borrie; Robert E. Manning; William A. Valliere; Benjamin Wang

    2000-01-01

    This research was designed to assist the managers of Yellowstone National Park (YNP) in their decision making about winter visitation. The focus of this report is on winter use patterns and winter visitor preferences. It is the author’s hope that this information will benefit both the quality of winter experiences and the stewardship of the park resources. This report...

  19. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  20. Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

    2018-06-01

    There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

  1. Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

    2018-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather

  2. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  3. Weather Instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

  4. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

    1992-01-01

    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  5. Applying a Machine Learning Technique to Classification of Japanese Pressure Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Kimura

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In climate research, pressure patterns are often very important. When a climatologists need to know the days of a specific pressure pattern, for example "low pressure in Western areas of Japan and high pressure in Eastern areas of Japan (Japanese winter-type weather," they have to visually check a huge number of surface weather charts. To overcome this problem, we propose an automatic classification system using a support vector machine (SVM, which is a machine-learning method. We attempted to classify pressure patterns into two classes: "winter type" and "non-winter type". For both training datasets and test datasets, we used the JRA-25 dataset from 1981 to 2000. An experimental evaluation showed that our method obtained a greater than 0.8 F-measure. We noted that variations in results were based on differences in training datasets.

  6. Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

    2018-01-01

    Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

  7. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

    1964-01-01

    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  8. The winter of 1827-1828 over eastern North America. A season of extraordinary climatic anomalies, societal impacts, and false spring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mock, C.J.; McWaters, M. [Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208 (United States); Mojzisek, J. [Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, (New Zealand); Chenoweth, M. [Independent Scholar, 6816 Ducketts Lane, Elkridge, MD, 21075 (United States); Stahle, D.W. [Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, 72701 (United States)

    2007-07-15

    This study reconstructed the weather and its impacts on society for the winter of 1827-1828, focusing on the eastern United States. Data comprise of daily and monthly instrumental records, diaries with both daily and seasonal resolution, newspapers, fur trapper accounts, and tree-rings. Temperature anomalies were calculated and mapped based on the means during the 1820-1840 period to account for different fixed observation times. Precipitation frequencies provided direct comparisons of the 1827-1828 weather with modern climatic normals. Daily plots of temperature also reveal weather variations at daily timeframes. Results indicate that the eastern United States experienced strong positive temperature anomalies that are among the most extreme known in the historical record, particularly its large spatial extent. In contrast, historical evidence reveals strong negative temperature anomalies over northwestern North America, and positive temperature anomalies are evident for coastal Alaska. These temperature anomaly patterns sharply contrast to what is normally experienced during a warm El Nino event. Furthermore, results clearly describe remarkable climatic impacts in the Southeast U.S., including widespread blossoming of fruit trees in mid-winter (false spring) that led to a widespread severe killing frost in early April of 1828. Widespread positive precipitation frequency anomalies are also evident for much of the Southeast U.S., which also played a prominent role on winter vegetation growth. Other weather events and impacts include unusual opening of river traffic in winter in New England, severe flooding in the Mississippi River Valley, and heavy snowfall in northwestern North America.

  9. Winter Frost and Fog

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    This somewhat oblique blue wide angle Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows the 174 km (108 mi) diameter crater, Terby, and its vicinity in December 2004. Located north of Hellas, this region can be covered with seasonal frost and ground-hugging fog, even in the afternoon, despite being north of 30oS. The subtle, wavy pattern is a manifestation of fog. Location near: 28oS, 286oW Illumination from: upper left Season: Southern Winter

  10. Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta S. Lopes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions. Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading. Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny

  11. Desert heat island study in winter by mobile transect and remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chen-Yi; Brazel, Anthony J.; Chow, Winston T. L.; Hedquist, Brent C.; Prashad, Lela

    2009-10-01

    A familiar problem in urban environments is the urban heat island (UHI), which potentially increases air conditioning demands, raise pollution levels, and could modify precipitation patterns. The magnitude and pattern of UHI effects have been major concerns of a lot of urban environment studies. Typically, research on UHI magnitudes in arid regions (such as Phoenix, AZ, USA) focuses on summer. UHI magnitudes in Phoenix (more than three million population) attain values in excess of 5°C. This study investigated the early winter period—a time when summer potential evapotranspiration >250 mm has diminished to 8.0°C, comparable to summertime UHI conditions. Through analysis of the Oke (1998) weather factor ΦW, it was determined thermally induced nighttime cool drainage winds could account for inflating the UHI magnitude in winter.

  12. Landscape-scale spatial patterns of winter injury to red spruce foliage in a year of heavy region-wide injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brynne E. Lazarus; Paul G. Schaberg; Gary J. Hawley; Donald H. DeHayes

    2006-01-01

    Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) winter injury is caused by freezing damage that results in the abscission of the most recent foliar age-class. Injury was widespread and severe in the northeastern United States in 2003 and was assessed at multiple elevations at 23 sites in Vermont and adjacent states. This paper presents a spatial analysis of these...

  13. Adverse weather impacts on arable cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Damages due to extreme or adverse weather strongly depend on crop type, crop stage, soil conditions and management. The impact is largest during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar, and requires a modelling approach to capture the interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The hypothesis is that extreme and adverse weather events can be quantified and subsequently incorporated in current crop models. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, a regional crop model was used to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. Risk profiles and associated return levels were obtained by fitting generalized extreme value distributions to block maxima for air humidity, water balance and temperature variables. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields and yield losses for the major arable crops in Belgium, notably winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape, sugar beet, potato and maize at the field (farm records) to regional scale (statistics). The average daily vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growing season is significantly lower (p < 0.001) and has a higher variability before 1988 than after 1988. Distribution patterns of VPD and ET0 have relevant impacts on crop yields. The response to rising temperatures depends on the crop's capability to condition its microenvironment. Crops short of water close their stomata, lose their evaporative cooling potential and ultimately become susceptible to heat stress. Effects of heat stress therefore have to be combined with moisture availability such as the precipitation deficit or the soil water balance. Risks of combined heat and moisture deficit stress appear during the summer. These risks are subsequently related to crop damage. The methodology of defining

  14. Effects of drought and prolonged winter on Townsend's ground squirrel demography in shrubsteppe habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horne, Beatrice; Olson, Gail S.; Schooley, Robert L.; Corn, Janelle G.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1997-01-01

    During a mark–recapture study of Townsend's ground squirrels (Spermophilus townsendii) on 20 sites in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area, Idaho, in 1991 through 1994, 4407 animals were marked in 17639 capture events. This study of differences in population dynamics of Townsend's ground squirrels among habitats spanned a drought near the extreme of the 130-yr record, followed by prolonged winter conditions.Townsend's ground squirrels have a short active season (≈4 mo) in which to reproduce and store fat for overwintering. Their food consists largely of succulent grasses and forbs in this dry shrubsteppe and grassland habitat. The drought in the latter half of the 1992 active season produced early drying of Sandberg's bluegrass (Poa secunda) and was associated with low adult and juvenile body masses prior to immergence into estivation/hibernation. The following prolonged winter was associated with late emergence of females in 1993. Early-season body masses of adults were low in 1993 relative to 1992, whereas percentage of body fat in males was relatively high. These weather patterns in spring 1992 and winter 1993 also resulted in reduced adult persistence through the ≈7-mo inactive period, especially for adult females, and near-zero persistence of >1200 juveniles. Consequently, densities of Townsend's ground squirrels across the 20 livetrap sites declined.The demographic effects of drought and prolonged winter lasted at least through the subsequent breeding season. Adult females that survived these weather extremes produced fewer emergent young per female than did adult females prior to the event. Prior to the drought/prolonged winter, yearling female body masses were higher than, or indistinguishable from, those of adults. Females produced in 1993 had lower body masses as yearlings than did adult females.Demographic response to the drought and prolonged winter varied with habitat; ground squirrels in sagebrush habitat showed less decline

  15. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  16. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  17. Barriers to wheelchair use in the winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripat, Jacquie D; Brown, Cara L; Ethans, Karen D

    2015-06-01

    To test the hypothesis that challenges to community participation posed by winter weather are greater for individuals who use scooters, manual and power wheelchairs (wheeled mobility devices [WMDs]) than for the general ambulatory population, and to determine what WMD users identify as the most salient environmental barriers to community participation during the winter. Cross-sectional survey organized around 5 environmental domains: technological, natural, physical, social/attitudinal, and policy. Urban community in Canada. Convenience sample of WMD users or their proxy (N=99). Not applicable. Not applicable. Forty-two percent identified reduced outing frequency in winter months, associated with increased age (χ(3)=6.4, P=.04), lack of access to family/friends for transportation (χ(2)=8.1, P=.04), and primary type of WMD used in the winter (scooter χ(2)=8.8, P=.003). Most reported tires/casters becoming stuck in the snow (95%) or slipping on the ice (91%), difficulty ascending inclines/ramps (92%), and cold hands while using controls or pushing rims (85%); fewer identified frozen wheelchair/scooter batteries, seat cushions/backrests, or electronics. Sidewalks/roads were reported to be problematic by 99%. Eighty percent reported needing additional help in the winter. Limited community access in winter led to a sense of loneliness/isolation, and fear/anxiety related to safety. Respondents identified policies that limited participation during winter. People who use WMDs decrease their community participation in cold weather because of multiple environmental barriers. Clinicians, researchers, and policymakers can take a multidimensional approach to mitigate these barriers in order to enhance community participation by WMD users in winter. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The incidence and patterns of illness at the Sochi 2014 Winter Paralympic Games: a prospective cohort study of 6564 athlete days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derman, W; Schwellnus, M P; Jordaan, E; Runciman, P; Van de Vliet, P; Blauwet, C; Webborn, N; Willick, S; Stomphorst, J

    2016-09-01

    To describe the epidemiology of illness at the Sochi 2014 Winter Paralympic Games. A total of 547 athletes from 45 countries were monitored daily for 12 days over the Sochi 2014 Winter Paralympic Games (6564 athlete days). Illness data were obtained daily from teams without their own medical support (13 teams, 37 athletes) and teams with their own medical support (32 teams, 510 athletes) through electronic data capturing systems. The total number of illnesses reported was 123, with an illness incidence rate (IR) of 18.7 per 1000 athlete days (95% CI 15.1% to 23.2%). The highest IR was reported for wheelchair curling (IR of 20.0 (95% CI 10.1% to 39.6%)). Illnesses in the respiratory system (IR of 5.6 (95% CI 3.8% to 8.0%)), eye and adnexa (IR of 2.7 (95% CI 1.7% to 4.4%)) and digestive system (IR of 2.4 (95% CI 1.4% to 4.2%)) were the most common. Older athletes (35-63 years) had a significantly higher IR than younger athletes (14-25 years, p=0.049). The results of this study indicate that Paralympic athletes report higher illness incidence rates compared to Olympic athletes at similar competitions. The highest rates of illness were reported for the respiratory and digestive systems, eye and adnexa, respectively. Thus, the results of this study form a basis for the identification of physiological systems at higher risk of illness, which can in turn inform illness prevention and management programmes with eventual policy change to promote athlete safety in future editions of the Winter Paralympic Games. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  19. Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

    2014-12-22

    This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

  20. Winter maintenance performance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  1. Understanding long-term (1982-2013) patterns and trends in winter wheat spring green-up date over the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sisi; Mo, Xingguo; Liu, Zhengjia; Baig, Muhammad Hasan Ali; Chi, Wenfeng

    2017-05-01

    Monitoring the spring green-up date (GUD) has grown in importance for crop management and food security. However, most satellite-based GUD models are associated with a high degree of uncertainty when applied to croplands. In this study, we introduced an improved GUD algorithm to extract GUD data for 32 years (1982-2013) for the winter wheat croplands on the North China Plain (NCP), using the third-generation normalized difference vegetation index form Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g NDVI). The spatial and temporal variations in GUD with the effects of the pre-season climate and soil moisture conditions on GUD were comprehensively investigated. Our results showed that a higher correlation coefficient (r = 0.44, p the improved algorithm relative to GUD from the MCD12Q2 phenology product. In spatial terms, GUD increased from the southwest (less than day of year (DOY) 60) to the northeast (more than DOY 90) of the NCP, which corresponded to spatial reductions in temperature and precipitation. GUD advanced in most (78%) of the winter wheat area on the NCP, with significant advances in 37.8% of the area (p the interannual scale, the average GUD advanced from DOY 76.9 in the 1980s (average 1982-1989) to DOY 73.2 in the 1990s (average 1991-1999), and to DOY 70.3 after 2000 (average 2000-2013), indicating an average advance of 1.8 days/decade (r = 0.35, p the pre-season temperature, our findings underline that the effect of the pre-season soil moisture on GUD should also be considered. The improved GUD algorithm and satellite-based long-term GUD data are helpful for improving the representation of GUD in terrestrial ecosystem models and enhancing crop management efficiency.

  2. The Year Without a Ski Season: An Analysis of the Winter of 2015 for Three Ski Resorts in Western Canada Using Historical and Simulation Model Forecasted Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Goode, J. D.; Pedersen, S.

    2015-12-01

    The winter of 2015 will go down as "the year without a ski season" for many ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada and the USA. During this winter season, a large area of the eastern North Pacific Ocean had extremely high sea surface temperatures. These high sea surface temperatures influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, in alpine environments precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow instead fell as rain. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winter of 2015 in greater detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Mount Washington, Cypress Mountain and Hemlock Valley. For these resorts, historical (1901 to 2013) and IPCC AR5 climate model forecasted climate data (RCP8.5 for 2025, 2055, and 2085) was generated for the variable winter degree days climate database ClimateBC. A value for winter degree days climate data at nearby meteorological stations for comparative analysis. For all three resorts, the winter of 2015 proved to be warmer than any individual year in the period 1901 to 2013. Interpolations involving the multi-model ensemble forecast means suggest that the climate associated with winter of 2015 will become the average normal for these resorts in only 35 to 45 years under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

  3. Characteristics of autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast identified by cluster analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

    2012-08-15

    Extremely high autumn and winter precipitation events on the European west coast are often driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Climate projections suggest the number and intensity of these events is likely to increase far more than the mean precipitation. In this study we investigate the autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast and the connection between its spatial distribution and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns using the k-means cluster analysis. We use three relatively high resolved downscalings of one global coupled model: the Arpege global atmospheric model (stretched grid with 35-km horizontal resolution over Norway) and the WRF-downscaled Arpege model (30 and 10-km) for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. The cluster analysis finds three main SLP patterns responsible for extreme precipitation in different parts of the country. The SLP patterns found are similar to the NAO positive pattern known to strengthen the westerly flow towards European coast. We then apply the method to investigate future change in extreme precipitation. We find an increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation of 15, 39 and 35% in the two simulations (Arpege 35-km and WRF 30 and 10-km, respectively). We do not find evidence of a significant change in the frequency of weather patterns between the present and the future periods. Rather, it is the probability of a given weather pattern to cause extreme precipitation which is increased in the future, probably due to higher temperatures and an increased moisture content of the air. The WRF model predicts the increase in this probability caused by the most important SLP patterns to be >50%. The Arpege model does not predict such a significant change because the general increase in extreme precipitation predicted is smaller, probably due to its coarser resolution over ocean which leads to smoother representation of the low pressure systems. (orig.)

  4. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  5. Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

  6. Kansas environmental and resource study: A Great Plains model. [land use, image enhancement, winter wheat, agriculture, water resources, and pattern recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haralick, R. M.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Morain, S. A.; Yarger, H. L.; Ulaby, F. T.; Davis, J. C. (Principal Investigator); Bosley, R. J.; Williams, D. L.; Mccauley, J. R.; Mcnaughton, J. L.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Improvement in the land use classification accuracy of ERTS-1 MSS multi-images over Kansas can be made using two distances between neighboring grey tone N-tuples instead of one distance. Much more information is contained texturally than spectrally on the Kansas image. Ground truth measurements indicate that reflectance ratios of the 545 and 655 nm wavebands provide an index of plant development and possibly physiological stress. Preliminary analysis of MSS 4 and 5 channels substantiate the ground truth interpretation. Results of the land use mapping experiment indicate that ERTS-1 imagery has major potential in regionalization. The ways in which land is utilized within these regions may then be studied more effectively than if no adequate regionalization is available. A model for estimating wheat yield per acre has been applied to acreage estimates derived from ERTS-1 imagery to project the 1973 wheat yields for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The results are within 3% of the preharvest estimates for the same area prepared by the USDA. Visual identification of winter wheat is readily achieved by using a temporal sequence of images. Identification can be improve by stratifying the project area into subregions having more or less homogeneous agricultural practices and crop mixes.

  7. A climatology of low level wind regimes over Central America using a weather type classification approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernán eSáenz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on the potential of the weather types classification method to study synoptic features, this study proposes the application of such methodology for the identification of the main large scale patterns related with weather in Central America. Using ERA Interim low-level winds in a domain that encompasses the intra-Americas sea, the eastern tropical Pacific, southern North America, Central America and northern South America; the K-means clustering algorithm was applied to find recurrent regimes of low-level winds. Eleven regimes were identified and good coherency between the results and known features of regional circulation was found. It was determined that the main large scale patterns can be either locally forced or a response to tropical-extratropical interactions. Moreover, the local forcing dominates the summer regimes whereas mid latitude interactions lead winter regimes. The study of the relationship between the large scale patterns and regional precipitation shows that winter regimes are related with the Caribbean-Pacific precipitation seesaw. Summer regimes, on the other hand, enhance the Caribbean-Pacific precipitation contrasting distribution as a function of the dominant regimes. A strong influence of ENSO on the frequency and duration of the regimes was found. It was determined that the specific effect of ENSO on the regimes depends on whether the circulation is locally forced or lead by the interaction between the tropics and the mid-latitudes. The study of the cold surges using the information of the identified regimes revealed that three regimes are linkable with the occurrence of cold surges that affect Central America and its precipitation. As the winter regimes are largely dependent of mid-latitude interaction with the tropics, the effect that ENSO has on the Jet Stream is reflected in the winter regimes. An automated analysis of large scale conditions based on reanalysis and/or model data seems useful for both dynamical

  8. Winter behavior of bats and the progression of white-nose syndrome in the southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Riley F; McCracken, Gary F

    2017-03-01

    Understanding the winter behavior of bats in temperate North America can provide insight into how bats react to perturbations caused by natural disturbances such as weather, human-induced disturbances, or the introduction of disease. This study measured the activity patterns of bats outside of their hibernaculum and asked how this winter activity varied by time, temperature, bat species, body condition, and WNS status. Over the course of three winters (2011-2013), we collected acoustic data and captured bats outside of five hibernacula in Tennessee, United States. During this time, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, became established in hibernacula throughout the region, allowing us to track disease-related changes in the winter behavior of ten bat species. We determined that bats in the southeastern United States were active during winter regardless of disease. We recorded activity outside of hibernacula at temperatures as low as -13°C. Although bat activity was best determined by a combination of variables, the strongest factor was mean daily temperature ( R 2  = .2879, F 1,1450  = 586.2, p  destructans positive ( F 3,17 808  = 124.48, p  destructans .

  9. Extreme weather is increasing flood-related damage along ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-06-08

    Jun 8, 2016 ... IDRC-supported researchers have found changes in weather patterns and in the intensity of extreme weather events are resulting in the ... the design of adaptation policies and risk management scenarios. ... Related articles ...

  10. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  11. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  12. Guidelines to Facilitate the Evaluation of Brines for Winter Roadway Maintenance Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-19

    This document presents guidelines to facilitate the evaluation of brines for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. Brines are used in anti-icing applications which typically consist of placing liquid snow and ice control chemicals...

  13. Severe European winters in a secular perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

  14. Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-05-01

    In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the peninsula (i.e., cyclonic, anticyclonic and directional). These large-scale patterns were first defined for the observed climate (1960-2013), allowing for an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the peninsula using rainfall data from 209 weather observatories. The same methodology was then applied to assess how the defined weather types will be presented in future climate simulations (under RCP45 and RCP85 emission scenarios) and to explore their probable dependency with rainfall characteristics. In this regard, daily simulated SLP derived from an ensemble of 12 climate models within the CMIP5 project were used for two future time-slices (2035-2060 and 2075-2100). Our findings indicate that the cyclonic (C) type represented the most frequent classification with 69.2% of days, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also found that the main circulation features influencing winter (spring) rainfall across the peninsula are the strong influence of the anticyclonic (easterly and southeasterly) air masses. Generally, the role of airflows originating from the Indian Ocean is larger than those of the Mediterranean and the Red Seas. The trend results of defined weather types show that the cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions tend to decrease (increase). This picture is likely to continue during the 21st century. The only exception corresponds to the summer season. Here, understanding the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula can be important for the understanding of climatic variability and thus developing circulation-based downscaling methods in this region.

  15. Effect of urbanization on the winter precipitation distribution in Beijing area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    According to the urbanization extent of Beijing area, and with 1980 as a turning point, the duration from 1961 to 2000 is divided into two periods: one is defined as the slow urbanization period from 1961 to 1980, and other one as the fast urbanization period from 1981 to 2000. Based on the 40-year’s precipi-tation data of 14 standard weather stations in Beijing area, the effect of urbanization on precipitation distribution is studied. It is found that there has been a noticeable and systematic change of winter precipitation distribution pattern between these two periods in Beijing area: in the slow urbanization period, the precipitation in the southern part of Beijing is more than that in the northern part; but in the fast urbanization period, the precipitation distribution pattern is reverse, i.e. the precipitation in the southern part is less than that in the northern part; But in other seasons, the precipitation distribution pattern did not change remarkably in general. The possible cause resulting in the change of winter precipitation distribution pattern, might be that with urban area extension, the effects of "urban heat island" and "urban dry island" become more and more intensified, and increase hydrometeors evapo-ration below precipitable cloud, and then cause less precipitation received on the ground surface in the downtown and the southern part. It is also noteworthy to further research why the precipitation distri-bution pattern does not change systematically in other seasons except winter after intense urbaniza-tion in Beijing area.

  16. Weathering and landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

    2005-04-01

    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  17. Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

  18. Estuary wader capacity following severe weather mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.A.; Baillie, S.R.; Clark, N.A.; Langston, R.H.W.

    1993-01-01

    The building of a tidal power barrage across an estuary may lead to substantial changes in its ecology. Many of Britain's estuaries hold internationally important numbers of waders. Careful consideration, therefore, needs to be given to the likely effects of tidal power barrages on wader populations. The opportunity for increased understanding of the mechanisms which govern wader populations was provided by a period of severe winter weather in 1991, which resulted in a substantial mortality of waders in eastern England. Such conditions are known to be stressful to birds and the study objectives were to investigate both the effects of and recovery from severe weather. (author)

  19. RESEARCH NOTE THE PERFOR]\\IANCE DURING WINTER, OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    THE PERFOR]\\IANCE DURING WINTER, OF HETFERS FED GRASS SILAGE, MADE UNDER. UNFAVOURABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND E. curvula HAY, PRODUCED. FROM THE SAME SWARD. Receipt of MS: 06-10-1981. A. van Niekerk. Cedara Agriculrural Research Station, PlBag X9059, Pietermaritzburg ...

  20. Wintering Map for Honey Bee Colonies in El-Behera Governorate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The geographical information system (GIS) has been used successfully in many studies to solve apicultural problems. The winter season is considered as a challenge for honey bee colonies due to the cold weather which cause the forfeiture of many colonies. The good wintering of honey bee colonies depends mainly on ...

  1. Recent advances in sustainable winter road operations – a book proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-05

    Investing in winter transportation operations is essential and beneficial to the public and the economy. The U.S. economy cannot afford the cost of shutting down highways, airports, etc., during winter weather. In the northern U.S. and other cold-cli...

  2. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  3. Deer Wintering Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  4. Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garaboa-Paz, Daniel; Lorenzo, Nieves; Pérez-Muñuzuri, Vicente

    2017-05-01

    Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

  5. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent R.; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

    2013-01-01

    Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

  6. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  7. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

    2018-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  8. Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

  9. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  10. Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

  11. Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists

  12. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  13. Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; hide

    2016-01-01

    Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management

  14. WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  15. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  16. Mariners Weather Log

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  17. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  18. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  19. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  20. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  1. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  2. Radar Weather Observation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  3. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  4. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  5. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  6. Space Weather in Operation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  7. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Damm

    2017-08-01

    Under +2 °C warming, the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts to up to 10.1 million nights per winter season, which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971–2000. Among the top four European skiing tourism nations – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland – France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria, followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.

  8. Relationship of deer and moose populations to previous winters' snow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.; McRoberts, R.E.; Peterson, R.O.; Page, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    (1) Linear regression was used to relate snow accumulation during single and consecutive winters with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawn:doe ratios, mosse (Alces alces) twinning rates and calf:cow ratios, and annual changes in deer and moose populations. Significant relationships were found between snow accumulation during individual winters and these dependent variables during the following year. However, the strongest relationships were between the dependent variables and the sums of the snow accumulations over the previous three winters. The percentage of the variability explained was 36 to 51. (2) Significant relationships were also found between winter vulnerability of moose calves and the sum of the snow accumulations in the current, and up to seven previous, winters, with about 49% of the variability explained. (3) No relationship was found between wolf numbers and the above dependent variables. (4) These relationships imply that winter influences on maternal nutrition can accumulate for several years and that this cumulative effect strongly determines fecundity and/or calf and fawn survivability. Although wolf (Canis lupus L.) predation is the main direct mortality agent on fawns and calves, wolf density itself appears to be secondary to winter weather in influencing the deer and moose populations.

  9. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    2011-01-01

    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern hemisp...... of contracts for workers is more likely to explain differences in seasonal activity than climatic or technological factors....

  10. Titan's Emergence from Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  11. Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of

  12. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  13. Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

    2014-01-01

    A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

  14. Rainfall estimation for hydrology using volumetric weather radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis focuses specifically on weather radar rainfall measurements in strati form precipitation. In North-Western Europe this type of precipitation is most dominant in winter and leads to the largest hydro logical response of catchments. Unfortunately, the quality of uncorrected radar rainfall

  15. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  16. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  17. Winter is losing its cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.

    2017-12-01

    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  18. Fiscal 2000 report on geothermal energy development promotion survey. Phase 1. Report on environmental impact survey in No. C-5 Appi district (Weather); 2000 nendo chinetsu kaihatsu sokushin chosa hokokusho. No.C-5. Appi chiiki - kankyo eikyo chosa (kisho) dai 1 ji

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    For grasping the characteristics of weather, climate, and natural earthquakes in and around the geothermal survey area in the Appi district, Iwate Prefecture, observation data of weather stations or the like in the neighborhood were collected and put in an easy-to-use order. Weather and earthquake data of the 1990-1999 decade were collected and subjected to statistical processing. Weather in the Appi District Survey C area is characterized in that it assumes the Japan Sea side pattern with much snow in winter and much rain in the rainy season. In the other seasons, however, it assumes the Pacific side inland pattern. Weather data in the Appi district and its vicinity are deemed to be similar to the values observed at the Hachimantai weather station. The area covered by the survey, however, is higher than the Hachimantai weather station by 400-900m, and therefore is that much colder and has more rain and snow. As for earthquakes, a total of 647 were recorded in the decade 1990-1999. In the Appi District Survey C area, which is approximately 20km times 20km large, suffered 31.1 events/month in 1998, which indicated a great rise in seismic occurrence. The rise is now attributed to the volcanic activity of Mt. Iwate which is deemed to be waning. (NEDO)

  19. European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

    2018-01-01

    Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in

  20. Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

  1. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  2. Cockpit weather information needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.

    1992-01-01

    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  3. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handorf

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of the Arctic atmosphere to low and high sea ice concentration phases based on European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim atmospheric data and Hadley Centre's sea ice dataset (HadISST1 from 1989 until 2010 has been studied. Time slices of winter atmospheric circulation with high (1990–2000 and low (2001–2010 sea ice concentration in the preceding August/September have been analysed with respect to tropospheric interactions between planetary and baroclinic waves. It is shown that a changed sea ice concentration over the Arctic Ocean impacts differently the development of synoptic and planetary atmospheric circulation systems. During the low ice phase, stronger heat release to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean reduces the atmospheric vertical static stability. This leads to an earlier onset of baroclinic instability that further modulates the non-linear interactions between baroclinic wave energy fluxes on time scales of 2.5–6 d and planetary scales of 10–90 d. Our analysis suggests that Arctic sea ice concentration changes exert a remote impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation during winter, exhibiting a barotropic structure with similar patterns of pressure anomalies at the surface and in the mid-troposphere. These are connected to pronounced planetary wave train changes notably over the North Pacific.

  4. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  5. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.

    1984-12-01

    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  6. Spirit's Winter Work Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Annotated Version This portion of an image acquired by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment camera shows the Spirit rover's winter campaign site. Spirit was parked on a slope tilted 11 degrees to the north to maximize sunlight during the southern winter season. 'Tyrone' is an area where the rover's wheels disturbed light-toned soils. Remote sensing and in-situ analyses found the light-toned soil at Tyrone to be sulfate rich and hydrated. The original picture is catalogued as PSP_001513_1655_red and was taken on Sept. 29, 2006. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project and built the spacecraft. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment is operated by the University of Arizona, Tucson, and the instrument was built by Ball Aerospace and Technology Corp., Boulder, Colo.

  7. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino

    1986-01-01

    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  8. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  9. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  10. KSC Weather and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

    2016-01-01

    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  11. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  12. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent R.; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

    2013-01-01

    winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

  13. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.

    1987-06-01

    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  14. Notes on winter feeding behavior and molt in Wilson's phalaropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, J.; Howe, M.

    1975-01-01

    Wilson's Phalaropes, Steganopus tricolor, migrate in late summer from the prairie regions of North America to their wintering grounds in the highlands of Peru and the inland and coastal waters of Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina (Holmes 1939, Meyer de Schauensee 1970). Reports on these birds from their wintering habitat are few. This paper describes numbers, feeding behavior, and molt of Wilson's Phalaropes wintering in a freshwater marsh in central Argentina. Fieldwork in Argentina was conducted by the senior author. The junior author analyzed molt patterns of birds collected there and added data he collected in North Dakota in 1968 and 1969.

  15. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G

    2011-01-01

    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  16. Impacts of climate change for Swiss winter and summer tourism: a general equilibrium analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Thurm, Boris; Vielle, Marc; Vöhringer, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Tourism could be greatly affected by climate change due to its strong dependence on weather. In Switzerland, the sector represents an appreciable share of the economy. Thus, studying climate effects on tourism is necessary for developing adequate adaptation strategies. While most of the studies focused on winter tourism, we investigate the climate change impacts on both winter and summer tourism in Switzerland. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we simulate the impacts of tem...

  17. POPULATION SYNCHRONY WITHIN AND AMONG LEPIDOPTERA SPECIES IN RELATION TO WEATHER, PHYLOGENY, AND LARVEL PHENOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather. 2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (min...

  18. Winter movements of Louisiana pine snakes (Pituophis ruthveni) in Texas and Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josh B. Pierce; D. Craig Rudolph; Shirley J. Burgdorf; Richard R. Schaefer; Richard N. Conner; John G. Himes; C. Mike Duran; Laurence M. Hardy; Robert R. Fleet

    2014-01-01

    Despite concerns that the Louisiana Pine Snake (Pituophis ruthveni) has been extirpated from large portions of its historic range, only a limited number of studies on their movement patterns have been published. Winter movement patterns are of particular interest since it has been hypothesized that impacts of management practices would be reduced during the winter....

  19. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  20. Cold Weather Entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLure, John W.

    1983-01-01

    Suggests instructional strategies and student activities related to the study of insects during the winter. Includes possible collecting sites and classroom activities once the insects have been collected. (JN)

  1. Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

    1997-01-01

    1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more

  2. Spirit Scans Winter Haven

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    At least three different kinds of rocks await scientific analysis at the place where NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit will likely spend several months of Martian winter. They are visible in this picture, which the panoramic camera on Spirit acquired during the rover's 809th sol, or Martian day, of exploring Mars (April 12, 2006). Paper-thin layers of light-toned, jagged-edged rocks protrude horizontally from beneath small sand drifts; a light gray rock with smooth, rounded edges sits atop the sand drifts; and several dark gray to black, angular rocks with vesicles (small holes) typical of hardened lava lie scattered across the sand. This view is an approximately true-color rendering that combines images taken through the panoramic camera's 753-nanometer, 535-nanometer, and 432-nanometer filters.

  3. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  4. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-29

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  5. Arctic vegetation damage by winter-generated coal mining pollution released upon thawing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elberling, B.; Søndergaard, J.; Jensen, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    summer period. Here we show that heat generation within an oxidizing, sulfidic, coal-mining waste-rock pile in Svalbard (78° N) is high enough to keep the pile warm (roughly 5 °C throughout the year) despite mean annual air temperatures below -5 °C. Consequently, weathering processes continue year...... the adverse environmental impacts of cold region coal-mining need to pay more attention to winter processes including AMD generation and accumulation of weathering products....

  6. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

    2015-05-01

    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Price, Weather, and `Acreage Abandonment' in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.

    1983-07-01

    Multivariate analyses of acreage abandonment patterns in the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat region indicate that the major mode of variation is an in-phase oscillation confined to the western half of the overall area, which is also the area with lowest average yields. This is one of the more agroclimatically marginal environments in the United States, with wide interannual fluctuations in both climate and profitability.We developed a multiple regression model to determine the relative roles of weather and expected price in the decision not to harvest. The overall model explained 77% of the spatial and temporal variation in abandonment. The 36.5% of the non-spatial variation was explained by two simple transformations of climatic data from three monthly aggregates-September-October, November-February and March-April. Price factors, expressed as indexed future delivery quotations,were barely significant, with only between 3 and 5% of the non-spatial variation explained, depending upon the model.The model was based upon weather, climate and price data from 1932 through 1975. It was tested by sequentially withholding three-year blocks of data, and using the respecified regression coefficients, along with observed weather and price, to estimate abandonment in the withheld years. Error analyses indicate no loss of model fidelity in the test mode. Also, prediction errors in the 1970-75 period, characterized by widely fluctuating prices, were not different from those in the rest of the model.The overall results suggest that the perceived quality of the crop, as influenced by weather, is a much more important determinant of the abandonment decision than are expected returns based upon price considerations.

  8. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  9. White Sea's Severe Winter Hydrological Hazard and Its Effect On Decrease of Population of Greenland Seals (1998/99 Winter Ecological Catastrophe)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melentyev, Konstantin V.; Chernook, Vladimir I.

    soundig with resolution 20-25 m, changed situation. High transparency of snow and relatively deep penetration of signals in ice is basis of sub-surface sounding. SAR images allow fix documentary different ice parameters: development and arrangement, ice type, shape of floes, ice concentration and compactness. Unfortunately time being resolution couldn't resolve individual sea mammal. In order to investigate the ice regime, estimate number of seals at the different winter conditions and forecast the future tendency of population decrease we perform regularly ice reconnaissance. Accomplish these observations and computations more precisely could be done at the time of mass accumulation of seals, that is whelping and moulting period. Aerial inspection is difficult task: weather conditions and masking coloration obstructs the problems, sometimes mammals couldn't be quite founded. Comprehensive study of ERS SAR signatures for diagnosis type of winter hydrology of the Arctic seas and ice conditions produced by severe winter , assessment of possibility forecast of future development of ice and studying ice as non-biotic factor of ecology of Pagophilus groenladicus and other ice-associated forms of sea mammals is a new interdisciplinary approach in marine biology. First experience of such application SAR data for diagnosis of hydrological hazard produced by severe winter has been undertaken in the White Sea and contiguous seas in 1996. Sub-satellite experiments onboard nuclear icebreaker "Taymir" provided validation program, ice cores and water samples were gathered and evaluated using chemi-luminiscent methods in connection with seal' behavior patterns. Since then aircraft Antonov-26 «Arktika» provided ice and seals investigations systematically. Helicopter is employed for in situ observations, ice cores and water samples are investigated in laboratory for measurement of different pollutant , dissolved organic matter and other hydro-chemical and radio-physical paramet ers

  10. Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manney, Gloria L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Kruger, Kirstin; Naujokat, Barbara; Santee, Michelle L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Swinbank, Richard; Randall, Cora E.; Simmons, Adrian J.; hide

    2005-01-01

    Several meteorological datasets, including U.K. Met Office (MetO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and NASA's Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-4) analyses, are being used in studies of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winter and Antarctic major warming. Diagnostics are compared to assess how these studies may be affected by the meteorological data used. While the overall structure and evolution of temperatures, winds, and wave diagnostics in the different analyses provide a consistent picture of the large-scale dynamics of the SH 2002 winter, several significant differences may affect detailed studies. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (REAN) and NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 (REAN-2) datasets are not recommended for detailed studies, especially those related to polar processing, because of lower-stratospheric temperature biases that result in underestimates of polar processing potential, and because their winds and wave diagnostics show increasing differences from other analyses between similar to 30 and 10 hPa (their top level). Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperatures in the ECMWF 40-Yr Re-analysis (ERA-40) show unrealistic vertical structure, so this long-term reanalysis is also unsuited for quantitative studies. The NCEP/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) objective analyses give an inferior representation of the upper-stratospheric vortex. Polar vortex transport barriers are similar in all analyses, but there is large variation in the amount, patterns, and timing of mixing, even among the operational assimilated datasets (ECMWF, MetO, and GEOS-4). The higher-resolution GEOS-4 and ECMWF assimilations provide significantly better representation of filamentation and small-scale structure than the other analyses, even when fields gridded at reduced resolution are studied. The choice of which analysis to use is most critical for detailed transport

  11. Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

  12. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China--An econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Weed seed germination in winter cereals under contrasting tillage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherner, Ananda

    2015-01-01

    to accumulate in the top soil layer and timing of herbicide applications sometimes seems to target the emergence pattern of these weeds poorly. In contrast to the management of most diseases and pests, weed management should be considered in a time frame. The abilities to produce above and below ground...... of weeds. An important component in IWM is to understand and ultimately predict weed emergence patterns in relation to the cropping system and the tillage method applied. A better understanding of the cumulative emergence patterns of weed species in winter crops under different tillage regimes will help......Grass weeds and Gallium aparine are major weed problems in North European arable cropping systems with high proportions of winter crops, especially winter wheat (Clarke et al., 2000; Melander et al., 2008). Problems are accentuated where inverting tillage is omitted, as weed seeds tend...

  14. Downscaling atmospheric patterns to multi-site precipitation amounts in southern Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Christensen, O.B.; Rasmussen, P.F.

    2010-01-01

    A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is applied for downscaling atmospheric synoptic patterns to winter multi-site daily precipitation amounts. The implemented NHMM assumes precipitation to be conditional on a hidden weather state that follows a Markov chain, whose transition probabilities...... depend on current atmospheric information. The gridded atmospheric fields are summarized through the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique. SVD is applied to geopotential height and relative humidity at several pressure levels, to identify their principal spatial patterns co...... products of bivariate distributions. Conditional on the weather state, precipitation amounts are modelled separately at each gauge as independent gamma-distributed random variables. This modelling approach is applied to 51 precipitation gauges in Denmark and southern Sweden for the period 1981...

  15. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  16. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  17. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  18. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  19. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  20. NOAA Weather Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  1. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  2. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  3. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  4. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  5. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-13

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  6. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  7. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-10-04

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  8. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  9. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  10. Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part 2. Individual Perception of Climate Extremes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

    2004-02-01

    This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is considered the study of the perception of weather impacts through questionnaire survey to the general public. With regard to the individuals' perception survey, a sample of 300 individuals were interviewed by telephone: 150 extracted from the North of Italy and 150 from the South of Italy. Individuals were asked general questions about their perception of climate extremes, and about the impacts of weather extremes on their daily habits at work, at home, in their leisure activities, on their transport patterns, on their health and tourism choices

  11. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-11-01

    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  12. The relationship between weather and caribou productivity for the La-Poile Caribou Herd, Newfoundland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven H. Ferguson

    1991-10-01

    Full Text Available To describe the relationship between weather and caribou (Rangifer tarandus productivity, we compared weather variables (snow on ground, winter temperature and measures of growing season with measures of productivity (calves seen by hunters, calves and yearlings in the harvest and percent calves and yearlings and pregnancy rate for caribou classified during fall and spring surveys for the LaPoile Caribou Herd in southwestern Newfoundland. Hunter statistics reliably estimated changes in population demography. Percent calves seen by hunters was correlated with calves/100 females classified in fall. Weather may have influenced productivity for the LaPoile Caribou Herd in Newfoundland. Colder winter temperatures were associated with fewer calves the next fall and pregnancy rates and yearlings/100 females in the spring were negatively correlated with snow on ground the previous winter. These relationships appear to be density related.

  13. Long-term variation in the winter resident bird community of Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico: lessons for measuring and monitoring species richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Faaborg; Katie M. Dugger; Wayne J. Arendt

    2007-01-01

    Because the winter season is potentially limiting for migratory birds, understanding their nonbreeding distributional patterns is essential. At a given site, patterns of species occurrence and abundance may vary over time and, within a species, wintering strategies may vary with regard to the degree that individuals are site-faithful both within and between winters. We...

  14. Nocturnal surface ozone enhancement over Portugal during winter: Influence of different atmospheric conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Kulkarni, Pavan S.

    2016-09-24

    Four distinct nocturnal surface ozone (NSO) enhancement events were observed, with NSO concentration exceeding 80μg/m3, at multiple ozone (O3) monitoring stations (32 sites) in January, November and December between year 2000–2010, in Portugal. The reasonable explanation for the observed bimodal pattern of surface ozone with enhanced NSO concentration during nighttime has to be transport processes, as the surface ozone production ceases at nighttime. Simultaneous measurements of O3 at multiple stations during the study period in Portugal suggest that horizontal advection alone cannot explain the observed NSO enhancement. Thus, detailed analysis of the atmospheric conditions, simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, were performed to evaluate the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for NSO enhancement in the region. Simulations revealed that each event occurred as a result of one or the combination of different atmospheric processes such as, passage of a cold front followed by a subsidence zone; passage of a moving surface trough, with associated strong horizontal wind speed and vertical shear; combination of vertical and horizontal transport at the synoptic scale; formation of a low level jet with associated vertical mixing below the jet stream. The study confirmed that large-scale flow pattern resulting in enhanced vertical mixing in the nocturnal boundary layer, plays a key role in the NSO enhancement events, which frequently occur over Portugal during winter months. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  15. Nocturnal surface ozone enhancement over Portugal during winter: Influence of different atmospheric conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Kulkarni, Pavan S.; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Sharma, Ashish; Bortoli, D.; Salgado, Rui; Silva, A.M.

    2016-01-01

    Four distinct nocturnal surface ozone (NSO) enhancement events were observed, with NSO concentration exceeding 80μg/m3, at multiple ozone (O3) monitoring stations (32 sites) in January, November and December between year 2000–2010, in Portugal. The reasonable explanation for the observed bimodal pattern of surface ozone with enhanced NSO concentration during nighttime has to be transport processes, as the surface ozone production ceases at nighttime. Simultaneous measurements of O3 at multiple stations during the study period in Portugal suggest that horizontal advection alone cannot explain the observed NSO enhancement. Thus, detailed analysis of the atmospheric conditions, simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, were performed to evaluate the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for NSO enhancement in the region. Simulations revealed that each event occurred as a result of one or the combination of different atmospheric processes such as, passage of a cold front followed by a subsidence zone; passage of a moving surface trough, with associated strong horizontal wind speed and vertical shear; combination of vertical and horizontal transport at the synoptic scale; formation of a low level jet with associated vertical mixing below the jet stream. The study confirmed that large-scale flow pattern resulting in enhanced vertical mixing in the nocturnal boundary layer, plays a key role in the NSO enhancement events, which frequently occur over Portugal during winter months. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  16. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  17. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  18. Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

    Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

  19. Statistical-Synoptic Analysis of the Atmosphere Thickness Pattern of Iran’s Pervasive Frosts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Rousta

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed at analyzing the synoptic pattern of atmospheric thickness of winter pervasive frosts in Iran. To this end, the data related to the daily minimum temperature of a 50-year period (1961–2010 were gathered from 451 synoptic and climatology stations. Then, the instances in which the temperature was below 0 °C for at least two consecutive days and this phenomenon covered at least 50% of the entirety of Iran were selected. Subsequently, the atmosphere thickness pattern was extracted for these days, with the representative day being identified and analyzed through cluster analysis. The results showed that the Siberian high pressure plays a significant role in the occurrence of pervasive frosts in Iran. In some other cases, the northeast–southwest direction of this pattern leads to its combination with the East Europe high pressure, causing widespread frosts in Iran. Furthermore, the interaction between counter clockwise currents in this system and the clockwise currents in the Azores high pressure tongue directs cold weather from northern parts of Europe toward Iran. The formation of blocking systems leads to the stagnation of cold weather over Iran, a phenomenon that results in significant reduction of temperature and severe frosts in these areas. In addition, the omega pattern (the fifth pattern and Deep Eastern European trough and polar low pressure pattern (the fourth pattern were the most dominant and severe frost patterns in Iran respectively.

  20. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  1. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  2. The CO2 system in rivers of the Australian Victorian Alps: CO2 evasion in relation to system metabolism and rock weathering on multi-annual time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagedorn, Benjamin; Cartwright, Ian

    2010-01-01

    The patterns of dissolved inorganic C (DIC) and aqueous CO 2 in rivers and estuaries sampled during summer and winter in the Australian Victorian Alps were examined. Together with historical (1978-1990) geochemical data, this study provides, for the first time, a multi-annual coverage of the linkage between CO 2 release via wetland evasion and CO 2 consumption via combined carbonate and aluminosilicate weathering. δ 13 C values imply that carbonate weathering contributes ∼36% of the DIC in the rivers although carbonates comprise less than 5% of the study area. Baseflow/interflow flushing of respired C3 plant detritus accounts for ∼50% and atmospheric precipitation accounts for ∼14% of the DIC. The influence of in river respiration and photosynthesis on the DIC concentrations is negligible. River waters are supersaturated with CO 2 and evade ∼27.7 x 10 6 mol/km 2 /a to ∼70.9 x 10 6 mol/km 2 /a CO 2 to the atmosphere with the highest values in the low runoff rivers. This is slightly higher than the global average reflecting higher gas transfer velocities due to high wind speeds. Evaded CO 2 is not balanced by CO 2 consumption via combined carbonate and aluminosilicate weathering which implies that chemical weathering does not significantly neutralize respiration derived H 2 CO 3 . The results of this study have implications for global assessments of chemical weathering yields in river systems draining passive margin terrains as high respiration derived DIC concentrations are not directly connected to high carbonate and aluminosilicate weathering rates.

  3. Multiple Weather Factors Affect Apparent Survival of European Passerine Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salewski, Volker; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Fiedler, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for

  4. Unusually amplified summer or winter indoor levels of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gammage, R.B.; Dudney, C.S.; Wilson, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    The ratios of winter/summer indoor radon levels for houses in different regions of the southern Appalachians are characterized by individual log-normal distributions with geometric means both above and below unity. In some counties and cities, subpopulations of houses have unusually exaggerated winter/summer ratios of indoor radon, as well as high indoor radon levels, during periods of either warm or cool weather. It is proposed that in many instances, houses are communicating with larger than normal underground reservoirs of radon-bearing air in hilly karst terrains; differences between the outdoor and underground air temperatures are believed to provide density gradients producing aerostatic pressure differences for seasonally directed underground transport and subsequently elevated indoor radon. These seasonal movements of air are analogous to the well-known underground chimney effects, which produce interzonal flows of air inside caves

  5. Linkages between Icelandic Low position and SE Greenland winter precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdahl, M.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A. C.; Mioduszewski, J.; Hameed, S.; Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    Greenland's largest flux of precipitation occurs in its Southeast (SE) region. An understanding of the mechanisms controlling precipitation in this region is lacking despite its disproportionate importance in the mass balance of Greenland and the consequent contributions to sea level rise. We use weather station data from the Danish Meteorological Institute to reveal the governing influences on precipitation in SE Greenland during the winter and fall. We find that precipitation in the fall is significantly correlated to the longitude of the Icelandic Low and the NAO. Winter precipitation is correlated with the strength and longitude of the Icelandic Low, as well as the NAO. We show that in years of extreme high precipitation, onshore winds dominate, thereby advecting more moisture inland. In low precipitation years, winds are more westerly, approaching the stations from land. Understanding the controls of SE Greenland precipitation will help us predict how future precipitation in this key region may change in a warming climate.

  6. Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L; Clark, Peter A; Catto, Jennifer L

    2012-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North-Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature, these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting-jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength. (letter)

  7. An analysis of US propane markets, winter 1996-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-06-01

    In late summer 1996, in response to relatively low inventory levels and tight world oil markets, prices for crude oil, natural gas, and products derived from both began to increase rapidly ahead of the winter heating season. Various government and private sector forecasts indicated the potential for supply shortfalls and sharp price increases, especially in the event of unusually severe winter weather. Following a rapid runup in gasoline prices in the spring of 1996, public concerns were mounting about a possibly similar situation in heating fuels, with potentially more serious consequences. In response to these concerns, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) participated in numerous briefings and meetings with Executive Branch officials, Congressional committee members and staff, State Energy Offices, and consumers. EIA instituted a coordinated series of actions to closely monitor the situation and inform the public. This study constitutes one of those actions: an examination of propane supply, demand, and price developments and trends.

  8. A Climatic Classification for Citrus Winter Survival in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shou, Bo Huang

    1991-05-01

    The citrus tree is susceptible to frost damage. Winter injury to citrus from freezing weather is the major meteorological problem in the northern pail of citrus growing regions in China. Based on meteorological data collected at 120 stations in southern China and on the extent of citrus freezing injury, five climatic regions for citrus winter survival in China were developed. They were: 1) no citrus tree injury. 2) light injury to mandarins (citrus reticulate) or moderate injury to oranges (citrus sinensis), 3) moderate injury to mandarins or heavy injury to oranges, 4) heavy injury to mandarins, and 5) impossible citrus tree growth. This citrus climatic classification was an attempt to provide guidelines for regulation of citrus production, to effectively utilize land and climatic resources, to chose suitable citrus varieties, and to develop methods to prevent injury by freezing.

  9. Yantarnaya is a new variety of fodder winter rye

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezgodov A.V.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available the article has evaluation of four years observation of the prospective varieties of winter rye Yantarnaya in comparison with the standard in the nursery of the competitive variety trial of the Ural Scientific Research Institute for Agriculture in Yekaterinburg and the results of a two year test in the system of FGBU «Gossortkomissiya». A winter rye is widely used for bread baking mainly. This culture has resistance from negative environmental factors. The main cause of limited use of a winter rye grain for forage is high content water-soluble pentosans over 1.5%. They reduce availability of nutrients to an organism. Creation of varieties with low content of water-soluble pentosans is the rational solution of increase in use of parts of grain of a winter rye in forage production. Together with VIR, a variety with the required characteristics was transferred to the state grade testing. The observation took place in 2013–2017, with contrasts on the weather conditions. According to FGBU «Gossorgkomissiya», the variety has high potential productivity and significantly exceeds same low pentosan variety in the yield.

  10. Attribution of UK Winter Floods to Anthropogenic Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, N.; Alison, K.; Sparrow, S. N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Massey, N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van Haren, R.; Lamb, R.; Huntingford, C.; Crooks, S.; Legg, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Jones, R.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    Many regions of southern UK experienced severe flooding during the 2013/2014 winter. Simultaneously, large areas in the USA and Canada were struck by prolonged cold weather. At the time, the media and public asked whether the general rainy conditions over northern Europe and the cold weather over North America were caused by climate change. Providing an answer to this question is not trivial, but recent studies show that probabilistic event attribution is feasible. Using the citizen science project weather@home, we ran over 40'000 perturbed initial condition simulations of the 2013/2014 winter. These simulations fall into two categories: one set aims at simulating the world with climate change using observed sea surface temperatures while the second set is run with sea surface temperatures corresponding to a world that might have been without climate change. The relevant modelled variables are then downscaled by a hydrological model to obtain river flows. First results show that anthropogenic climate change led to a small but significant increase in the fractional attributable risk for 30-days peak flows for the river Thames. A single number can summarize the final result from probabilistic attribution studies indicating, for example, an increase, decrease or no change to the risk of the event occurring. However, communicating this to the public, media and other scientists remains challenging. The assumptions made in the chain of models used need to be explained. In addition, extreme events, like the UK floods of the 2013/2014 winter, are usually caused by a range of factors. While heavy precipitation events can be caused by dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, floods occur only partly as a response to heavy precipitation. Depending on the catchment, they can be largely due to soil properties and conditions of the previous months. Probabilistic attribution studies are multidisciplinary and therefore all aspects need to be communicated properly.

  11. Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

    2018-01-01

    Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

  12. The U.S. Federal Highway Administration winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pisano, P.A. [Federal Highway Administration, Road Weather Managment Program, Washington, D.C. (United States); Stern, A.D. [Mitretek Systems, Inc., Oceanic, Atmospheric and Space Systems, Falls Church, VA (United States); Mahoney, W.P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Program, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Managing a winter maintenance program today is an increasingly complex endeavor. Just making sure that a plow blade is at the ready when the first flake falls is only a small part of the task. With tight budgets and the high expectation of the public for keeping roads clear of snow and ice, today's maintenance manager has to be able to handle multiple tasks or risk getting behind the onslaught of winter weather. Good information leads to effective practices, however all of the regulations concerning chemical applications, environmental impacts and multiple, often contradictory weather forecasts can lead to information overload. The United States Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) recognized this potential problem in the late 1990's as part of its Road Weather Management (RWM) program. Generally speaking, there were plenty of weather forecasts, along with a few companies that issued road-specific forecasts, but there was a lack of linkage between the information available and the decisions made by winter maintenance managers. It was this weak link that became the genesis for the winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS has since matured into a functional prototype. During the winter of 2002-2003, the prototype was deployed at several maintenance garages in central Iowa for a field demonstration. This paper will document the implementation of the demonstration, a summary of lessons learned, and technology transfer activities. It will also describe plans for a longer, more comprehensive demonstration during the winter of 2003-2004. (orig.)

  13. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China – An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. - Highlights: • We examine the impacts of the surface ozone exposure on winter wheat yield in China. • An econometric method is used to measure the ozone impacts. • The results conclude that surface ozone is harmful to winter wheat yield in China. • We confirm that stress conditions such as drought and air particles can mitigate the adverse effect of ozone. - Surface ozone pollution is harmful to winter wheat yield in China by considering socio-economic determinants, weather, and other stress conditions like drought and air particles.

  14. Food preferences of winter bird communities in different forest types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swen C Renner

    Full Text Available Food availability for forest birds is a function of habitat type, forest management regime, and season. In winter, it is also impacted by variations in the weather. In the current study we assessed the food preferences of wild bird populations in two types of forest (spruce and beech during the months of November 2010 to April 2011 in the Schwäbische Alb Biodiversity Exploratory, south-western Germany. Our aim was to investigate whether local bird communities preferred fat-rich, carbohydrate-rich or wild fruits and to determine how forest structure, seasonality and local weather conditions affected food preferences. We found higher bird activity in beech forests for the eleven resident species. We observed a clear preference for fat-rich food for all birds in both forest types. Snow cover affected activity at food stations but did not affect food preferences. Periods of extreme low temperatures increased activity.

  15. Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

  16. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  17. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  18. Weather and Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  19. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  20. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  1. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  2. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  3. Precipitation in Madeira island and atmospheric rivers in the winter seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, Flavio T.; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria; Prior, Victor

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to analyse the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the Madeira's highlands over a 10-year period, as well as the main characteristics associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting the island during 10 winter seasons, and their impact in the rainfall amounts recorded near the mountain crest in the south-eastern part of the island. The period between September 2002 and November 2012 is considered for the analysis. The ARs have been identified from the total precipitable water vapour field extracted from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The AIRS observations were downloaded for a domain covering large part of the North Atlantic Ocean. The precipitable water vapour field from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis was also used aiming to support the AIRS data when there was no satellite information over the island. The daily accumulated precipitation at surface showed generally drier summers, while the highest accumulated precipitation are recorded mainly during the winter, although some significant events may occur also in autumn and spring seasons. The patterns of the precipitable water vapour field when ARs reach the island were investigated, and even if great part of the atmospheric rivers reaches the island in a dissipation stage, some rivers are heavy enough to reach the Madeira Island. In this situation, the water vapour transport could be observed in two main configurations and transporting significant water vapour amounts toward the Madeira from the tropical region. This study lead to conclude that the atmospheric rivers, when associated to high values of precipitable water vapour over the island can provide favourable conditions to the development of precipitation, sometimes associated with high amounts. However, it was also found that many cases of high to extreme accumulated precipitation at the surface were not associated to this kind of moisture transport.

  4. 2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

    2013-12-01

    On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For

  5. Central American Flying Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  6. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  7. Effects of Wintering Environment and Parasite-Pathogen Interactions on Honey Bee Colony Loss in North Temperate Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh D Desai

    Full Text Available Extreme winter losses of honey bee colonies are a major threat to beekeeping but the combinations of factors underlying colony loss remain debatable. We monitored colonies in two environments (colonies wintered indoors or outdoors and characterized the effects of two parasitic mites, seven viruses, and Nosema on honey bee colony mortality and population loss over winter. Samples were collected from two locations within hives in fall, mid-winter and spring of 2009/2010. Although fall parasite and pathogen loads were similar in outdoor and indoor-wintered colonies, the outdoor-wintered colonies had greater relative reductions in bee population score over winter. Seasonal patterns in deformed wing virus (DWV, black queen cell virus (BQCV, and Nosema level also differed with the wintering environment. DWV and Nosema levels decreased over winter for indoor-wintered colonies but BQCV did not. Both BQCV and Nosema concentration increased over winter in outdoor-wintered colonies. The mean abundance of Varroa decreased and concentration of Sacbrood virus (SBV, Kashmir bee virus (KBV, and Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV increased over winter but seasonal patterns were not affected by wintering method. For most viruses, either entrance or brood area samples were reasonable predictors of colony virus load but there were significant season*sample location interactions for Nosema and BQCV, indicating that care must be taken when selecting samples from a single location. For Nosema spp., the fall entrance samples were better predictors of future infestation levels than were fall brood area samples. For indoor-wintered colonies, Israeli acute paralysis virus IAPV concentration was negatively correlated with spring population size. For outdoor-wintered hives, spring Varroa abundance and DWV concentration were positively correlated with bee loss and negatively correlated with spring population size. Multivariate analyses for fall collected samples indicated

  8. Spectrum of winter dermatoses in rural Yemen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Kamel, Mohamed A

    2016-05-01

    Surveys that have been carried out to determine the prevalence of skin diseases in rural Yemen are scarce or not available. To investigate the spectrum of winter dermatoses in a rural Yemeni community. A retrospective study was conducted at the dermatology outpatient clinic of the Al-Helal Specialized Hospital (Radaa' district of Al Bayda' Governorate) using data analysis of 700 selected records of patients managed during four months of the 2013-14 winter season. Seven hundred patients with 730 diseases were reported in this study; the major bulk of patients (46.57%) were in the >18-40-year age group, and females outnumbered males. By far, dermatitis, eczematous, and allergic disorders (38.49%) topped the list of the most frequent skin disorders groups, followed by skin infections and infestations (20%) and the pigmentary disorders (13.70%) group. Contact dermatitis (10.68%) was the most prevalent skin disorder, followed by hyperpigmentations (8.77%), acne (8.08%), viral infections (5.75%), atopic dermatitis (5.62%), and parasitic infestations (5.34%). This survey has documented the spectrum of winter dermatoses in a rural Yemeni community but also reflects the pattern of common dermatoses in the whole country. Dermatitis, eczematous, and allergic disorders, skin infections, and pigmentary disorders are the commonest groups. Contact dermatitis is the most prevalent disorder, and leishmaniasis is the most prevalent skin infectious disease. Climate, occupational, social, and environmental factors are the main contributors. Such statistics can form an important basis for community-based health policies. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

  9. It's the Physics: Organized Complexity in the Arctic/Midlatitude Weather Controversy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, J. E.; Francis, J. A.; Wang, M.

    2017-12-01

    There is intense scientific and public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact mid-latitude weather. Despite numerous workshops and a growing literature, convergence of understanding is lacking, with major objections about possible large impacts within the scientific community. Yet research on the Arctic as a new potential driver in improving subseasonal forecasting at midlatitudes remains a priority. A recent review laid part of the controversy on shortcomings in experimental design and ill-suited metrics, such as examining the influence of only sea-ice loss rather than overall Arctic temperature amplification, and/or calculating averages over large regions, long time periods, or many ensemble members that would tend to obscure event-like Arctic connections. The present analysis lays the difficulty at a deeper level owing to the inherently complex physics. Jet-stream dynamics and weather linkages on the scale of a week to months has characteristics of an organized complex system, with large-scale processes that operate in patterned, quasi-geostrophic ways but whose component feedbacks are continually changing. Arctic linkages may be state dependent, i.e., relationships may be more robust in one atmospheric wave pattern than another, generating intermittency. The observational network is insufficient to fully initialize such a system and the inherent noise obscures linkage signals, leading to an underdetermined problem; often more than one explanation can fit the data. Further, the problem may be computationally irreducible; the only way to know the result of these interactions is to trace out their path over time. Modeling is a suggested approach, but at present it is unclear whether previous model studies fully resolve anticipated complexity. The jet stream from autumn to early winter is characterized by non-linear interactions among enhanced atmospheric planetary waves, irregular transitions between the zonal and meridional flows, and the

  10. Study of frontal weather system using satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, J.; Ershad, S.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan which is situated in the south Asian sub continent, has a peculiar climatological position. It is one of the few countries in the world, which undergo a complete transformation from summer to winter season. However this project only pertains to the winter weather conditions in Pakistan. During winter, the land masses cool off rapidly as compared to the seas and so high pressure cells are developed over land causing, weak anti-cyclonic circulation over the country. In between these cells of anti-cyclonic flow of wind, there are zones of convergence, which offer a good breeding place for low-pressure waves. The low-pressure waves are similar to the extra tropical depressions and approach and approach Pakistan from west. From the same reason these are locally called the western Disturbances. Consequently the focus of study is on the extra tropical cyclones which originate along the boundary between polar continental and tropical or polar maritime and tropical maritime air masses. The extra tropical cyclones (also called western disturbances and westerly waves.) which are embedded in westerly flow of air move across north of Pakistan are usually originate from the Mediterranean sea. These systems consist of two types of fronts i.e. warm and cold fronts. In fact these systems can be traced right from the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. The location of frontal weather is generally associated with the surrounding synoptic situation, geographical position of the westerly wave, location of subtropical jet stream, steering wind level etc. although the satellite imageries are quite helpful for forecasting the frontal weather over our region however the weather charts (both surface and upper air ) and jet maps are also very helpful for this purpose

  11. A winter chronicle. The coldness of the winter in the Federal Republic of Germany between 1960/61 and 2007/2008; Eine Winterchronik. Die Kaelte der Winter in Deutschland von 1960/61 bis 2007/08

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinemann, Hans-Joachim

    2008-07-01

    Since the beginning of the nineteen-sixties a review of the past winter period was published each spring. These publications based on weather maps and measurements from different places across the Federal Republic of Germany. Since 1991 further locations from the new German states were added. With the aid of data such as the sum of negative daily mean air temperature from 1st November to 31st March and the amount of days with negative daily mean air temperature, the wintriness and the length of the winter for each season were calculated and compared with long-time statistical values. In addition, a no dimensional so called coldness value was generated to characterize the strength of each winter period with direct comparability between all locations in Germany. All essential information from these papers is presented chronologically.

  12. Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

    2017-02-01

    Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Designing a better weather display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Colin; Plumlee, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    The variables most commonly displayed on weather maps are atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and surface temperature. But they are usually shown separately, not together on a single map. As a design exercise, we set the goal of finding out if it is possible to show all three variables (two 2D scalar fields and a 2D vector field) simultaneously such that values can be accurately read using keys for all variables, a reasonable level of detail is shown, and important meteorological features stand out clearly. Our solution involves employing three perceptual "channels", a color channel, a texture channel, and a motion channel in order to perceptually separate the variables and make them independently readable. We conducted an experiment to evaluate our new design both against a conventional solution, and against a glyph-based solution. The evaluation tested the abilities of novice subjects both to read values using a key, and to see meteorological patterns in the data. Our new scheme was superior especially in the representation of wind patterns using the motion channel, and it also performed well enough in the representation of pressure using the texture channel to suggest it as a viable design alternative.

  14. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  15. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  16. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  17. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  18. Learning through a Winter's Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this…

  19. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  20. Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi

    2018-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.

  1. Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Carretier

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains

  2. Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carretier, Sébastien; Goddéris, Yves; Martinez, Javier; Reich, Martin; Martinod, Pierre

    2018-03-01

    The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains sparsely covered by regolith

  3. A framework for standardized calculation of weather indices in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Markus; Doms, Juliane; Gerstmann, Henning; Feike, Til

    2018-05-01

    Climate change has been recognized as a main driver in the increasing occurrence of extreme weather. Weather indices (WIs) are used to assess extreme weather conditions regarding its impact on crop yields. Designing WIs is challenging, since complex and dynamic crop-climate relationships have to be considered. As a consequence, geodata for WI calculations have to represent both the spatio-temporal dynamic of crop development and corresponding weather conditions. In this study, we introduce a WI design framework for Germany, which is based on public and open raster data of long-term spatio-temporal availability. The operational process chain enables the dynamic and automatic definition of relevant phenological phases for the main cultivated crops in Germany. Within the temporal bounds, WIs can be calculated for any year and test site in Germany in a reproducible and transparent manner. The workflow is demonstrated on the example of a simple cumulative rainfall index for the phenological phase shooting of winter wheat using 16 test sites and the period between 1994 and 2014. Compared to station-based approaches, the major advantage of our approach is the possibility to design spatial WIs based on raster data characterized by accuracy metrics. Raster data and WIs, which fulfill data quality standards, can contribute to an increased acceptance and farmers' trust in WI products for crop yield modeling or weather index-based insurances (WIIs).

  4. The influence of weather on fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis. [in human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchenko, V. I.

    1974-01-01

    Analysis of fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis indices by month showed an increase in the activity of these processes from winter to summer (1967-1968). At all seasons of the year, fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis increase during weather of the cyclonic type with passage of fronts and sharp fluctuations in meteorological factors in the atmosphere.

  5. The effect of inclement weather on ankle fracture management in an Irish trauma unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Neill, B J

    2013-09-01

    Ireland is unfamiliar with extreme weather conditions. Such conditions occurred in winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, with much of the country being affected by snow and ice. We reviewed the effect that these conditions had on the treatment of ankle fractures in our trauma unit.

  6. The power situation in winter 2010/2011; Kraftsituasjonen vinteren 2010/2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pettersen, Finn Erik Ljaastad (ed.)

    2011-07-15

    At the beginning of winter, the reservoir level was record low. Very cold weather before the end of the year contributed to the further tapping. Mild weather and early snow melt caused a rapid increase in water levels in beginning of April. On average, the Norwegian power prices was higher last winter compared with the previous winter. High prices are necessary to get high Norwegian imports and keep consumption down, and thus saving water in the reservoirs. Limitations in transmission capacity between market areas affected the prices and power flow last winter. In the night and weekend hours contributed network problems in southern Sweden to the reduced transmission capacity to Southern Norway. This dampened the Norwegian imports, and Norwegian hydropower producers tapped more of the magazined water than they otherwise would. This emphasizes the need to continue NVE's efforts to explore possibilities for a better utilization of transmission capacities in the network. There were several events that had an impact on the operation of the power system and security of supply last winter. Error events led to interruption for many grid customers, in addition to significant risk of further extensive dark laying of large areas if another failure should occur. (AG

  7. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  8. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  9. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mark

    2016-05-01

    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  10. Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2016-07-28

    An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

  11. Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

    2017-10-01

    An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

  12. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  13. Seasonal variation in orthopedic health services utilization in Switzerland: the impact of winter sport tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matter-Walstra, Klazien; Widmer, Marcel; Busato, André

    2006-03-03

    Climate- or holiday-related seasonality in hospital admission rates is well known for many diseases. However, little research has addressed the impact of tourism on seasonality in admission rates. We therefore investigated the influence of tourism on emergency admission rates in Switzerland, where winter and summer leisure sport activities in large mountain regions can generate orthopedic injuries. Using small area analysis, orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAo) were evaluated for seasonality in emergency admission rates. Winter sport areas were defined using guest bed accommodation rate patterns of guest houses and hotels located above 1000 meters altitude that show clear winter and summer peak seasons. Emergency admissions (years 2000-2002, n = 135'460) of local and nonlocal HSAo residents were evaluated. HSAo were grouped according to their area type (regular or winter sport area) and monthly analyses of admission rates were performed. Of HSAo within the defined winter sport areas 70.8% show a seasonal, summer-winter peak hospital admission rate pattern and only 1 HSAo outside the defined winter sport areas shows such a pattern. Seasonal hospital admission rates in HSAo in winter sport areas can be up to 4 times higher in winter than the intermediate seasons, and they are almost entirely due to admissions of nonlocal residents. These nonlocal residents are in general -and especially in winter- younger than local residents, and nonlocal residents have a shorter length of stay in winter sport than in regular areas. The overall geographic distribution of nonlocal residents admitted for emergencies shows highest rates during the winter as well as the summer in the winter sport areas. Small area analysis using orthopedic hospital service areas is a reliable method for the evaluation of seasonality in hospital admission rates. In Switzerland, HSAo defined as winter sport areas show a clear seasonal fluctuation in admission rates of only nonlocal residents, whereas

  14. 36 CFR 1002.19 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... RECREATION § 1002.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice skating, sledding, innertubing, tobogganing and similar winter sports are prohibited on Presidio Trust roads and in parking areas open to...

  15. Classification guide: Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games classification guide is designed to provide National Paralympic Committees (NPCs) and International Federations (IFs) with information about the classification policies and procedures that will apply to the Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games.

  16. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weekend Warriors expand/collapse Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are ... skiing! Be Mindful of Time Spent in the Sun, Regardless of the Season If possible, ski early ...

  17. Vodcasting Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

    2009-01-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  18. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  19. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  20. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  1. Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, Gerrit; Wiltshire, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Analysing long-term diatom data from the German Bight and observational climate data for the period 1962-2005, we found a close connection of the inter-annual variation of the timing of the spring bloom with the boreal winter atmospheric circulation. We examined the fact that high diatom counts of the spring bloom tended to occur later when the atmospheric circulation was characterized by winter blocking over Scandinavia. The associated pattern in the sea level pressure showed a pressure dipole with two centres located over the Azores and Norway and was tilted compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The bloom was earlier when the cyclonic circulation over Scandinavia allowed an increased inflow of Atlantic water into the North Sea which is associated with clearer, more marine water, and warmer conditions. The bloom was later when a more continental atmospheric flow from the east was detected. At Helgoland Roads, it seems that under turbid water conditions (= low light) zooplankton grazing can affect the timing of the phytoplankton bloom negatively. Warmer water temperatures will facilitate this. Under clear water conditions, light will be the main governing factor with regard to the timing of the spring bloom. These different water conditions are shown here to be mainly related to large-scale weather patterns. We found that the mean diatom bloom could be predicted from the sea level pressure one to three months in advance. Using historical pressure data, we derived a proxy for the timing of the spring bloom over the last centuries, showing an increased number of late (proxy-) blooms during the eighteenth century when the climate was considerably colder than today. We argue that these variations are important for the interpretation of inter-annual to centennial variations of biological processes. This is of particular interest when considering future scenarios, as well to considerations on past and future effects on the primary production and food webs.

  2. The 2016 Arctic Winter Games: “Now we do what we do best”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Carina Bregnholm; Thomsen, Robert Chr.

    2016-01-01

    A few days before the opening ceremony of the 2016 Arctic Winter Games (AWG) in Nuuk, Greenland, weather reports looked bleak. A spring blizzard was on its way and expected to peak the day prior to the opening ceremony. That very Saturday, 1250 participants were set to fly to Greenland’s capital...... city – the highest number of civilians arriving in one day by aircraft in the island’s history. Now, however, bad weather was jeopardizing this milestone in Greenlandic aviation history and, along with that, the successful execution of the upcoming games....

  3. Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.

    2009-10-01

    One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.

  4. Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S.; Deque, M. [Meteo-France CNRM/GMGEC CNRS/GAME, Toulouse (France); Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia

    2009-10-15

    One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation. (orig.)

  5. Winter in the Ouachitas--a severe winter storm signature in Pinus echinata in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas J. Stevenson; Thomas B. Lynch; Pradip Saud; Robert Heineman; Randal Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson; Chris Cerny; James M. Guldin

    2016-01-01

    Each year severe winter storms (≈ice storms) damage trees throughout the southern USA. Arkansas and Oklahoma have a history of severe winter storms. To extend that history back beyond the reach of written records, a distinctive tree ring pattern or signature is needed. Storm-caused breakage, branch loss and bending stress provide that signature. We found a severe storm...

  6. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  7. Leadership in American Indian Communities: Winter Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metoyer, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Winter lessons, or stories told in the winter, were one of the ways in which tribal elders instructed and directed young men and women in the proper ways to assume leadership responsibilities. Winter lessons stressed the appropriate relationship between the leader and the community. The intent was to remember the power and purpose of that…

  8. 46 CFR 45.73 - Winter freeboard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Winter freeboard. 45.73 Section 45.73 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) LOAD LINES GREAT LAKES LOAD LINES Freeboards § 45.73 Winter freeboard. The minimum winter freeboard (fw) in inches is obtained by the formula: fw=f(s)+T s...

  9. A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luedeling, Eike; Brown, Patrick H

    2011-05-01

    Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between -155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between -10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change.

  10. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  11. Storm related closures of I-5 and I-90 : freight transportation economic impact assessment report, winter 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    This report documents the economic impact analysis undertaken by WSDOTs Freight Systems Division in response to the : storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in the winter 2007-2008. The closures were the result of severe weather that : overwhelmed...

  12. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  13. Winter: Public Enemy #1 for Accessibility EXPLORING NEW SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Morales

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Winter is expensive. For countries situated in the northern hemisphere, closer to the north pole, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, winter requires the acquisition of special clothing, car tires, and sports equipment, snow removal or plowing from the streets, and is associated with the presence of ice patches, along with accidents and illnesses associated with cold weather. Fall-related injuries due to winter conditions have been estimated to cost the Canadian health care system $ 2.8 billion a year. However, the greatest cost snow entails every year is the social isolation of seniors as well as wheelchair and walker users. This results from the lack of accessibility, as it is difficult to circulate on snow-covered streets even for the able-bodied. Social isolation has been associated with other negative consequences such as depression and even suicide. This exploratory pilot study aimed at finding possible and feasible design solutions for improving the accessibility of sidewalks during winter conditions. For this project we used a Co-Design methodology. Stakeholders (City of Quebec representatives, designers, urban planners, occupational therapists, and adults with motor, visual and aural disabilities were invited to participate in the design process. In order to meet the objectives, two main steps were carried out: 1. Conception of the design solutions (through Co-design sessions in a Focus-group format with seniors, designers and researchers; and 2. Validation of the design solutions (consultation with experts and stakeholders. The results are a wide variety of possible and feasible solutions, including the reorganisation of the snow-removal procedure and the development of heated curb cuts. This project was funded by the City of Quebec in partnership with the Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale (CIRRIS. Ultimately, the project sought to explore possible solutions to be implemented

  14. Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal patterns of winter ecosystem respiration (Reco of northern ecosystems are poorly understood. For this reason, we analyzed eddy covariance flux data from 57 ecosystem sites ranging from ~35° N to ~70° N. Deciduous forests were characterized by the highest winter Reco rates (0.90 ± 0.39 g C m−2 d−1, when winter is defined as the period during which daily air temperature remains below 0 °C. By contrast, arctic wetlands had the lowest winter Reco rates (0.02 ± 0.02 g C m−2 d−1. Mixed forests, evergreen needle-leaved forests, grasslands, croplands and boreal wetlands were characterized by intermediate winter Reco rates (g C m−2 d−1 of 0.70(±0.33, 0.60(±0.38, 0.62(±0.43, 0.49(±0.22 and 0.27(±0.08, respectively. Our cross site analysis showed that winter air (Tair and soil (Tsoil temperature played a dominating role in determining the spatial patterns of winter Reco in both forest and managed ecosystems (grasslands and croplands. Besides temperature, the seasonal amplitude of the leaf area index (LAI, inferred from satellite observation, or growing season gross primary productivity, which we use here as a proxy for the amount of recent carbon available for Reco in the subsequent winter, played a marginal role in winter CO2 emissions from forest ecosystems. We found that winter Reco sensitivity to temperature variation across space (

  15. The CO{sub 2} system in rivers of the Australian Victorian Alps: CO{sub 2} evasion in relation to system metabolism and rock weathering on multi-annual time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagedorn, Benjamin, E-mail: khagedor@hawaii.edu [School of Geosciences, Monash University, Melbourne Vic. 3800 (Australia); Cartwright, Ian [School of Geosciences, Monash University, Melbourne Vic. 3800 (Australia)

    2010-06-15

    The patterns of dissolved inorganic C (DIC) and aqueous CO{sub 2} in rivers and estuaries sampled during summer and winter in the Australian Victorian Alps were examined. Together with historical (1978-1990) geochemical data, this study provides, for the first time, a multi-annual coverage of the linkage between CO{sub 2} release via wetland evasion and CO{sub 2} consumption via combined carbonate and aluminosilicate weathering. {delta}{sup 13}C values imply that carbonate weathering contributes {approx}36% of the DIC in the rivers although carbonates comprise less than 5% of the study area. Baseflow/interflow flushing of respired C3 plant detritus accounts for {approx}50% and atmospheric precipitation accounts for {approx}14% of the DIC. The influence of in river respiration and photosynthesis on the DIC concentrations is negligible. River waters are supersaturated with CO{sub 2} and evade {approx}27.7 x 10{sup 6} mol/km{sup 2}/a to {approx}70.9 x 10{sup 6} mol/km{sup 2}/a CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere with the highest values in the low runoff rivers. This is slightly higher than the global average reflecting higher gas transfer velocities due to high wind speeds. Evaded CO{sub 2} is not balanced by CO{sub 2} consumption via combined carbonate and aluminosilicate weathering which implies that chemical weathering does not significantly neutralize respiration derived H{sub 2}CO{sub 3}. The results of this study have implications for global assessments of chemical weathering yields in river systems draining passive margin terrains as high respiration derived DIC concentrations are not directly connected to high carbonate and aluminosilicate weathering rates.

  16. The sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norin, Lars; Devasthale, Abhay; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

    2017-09-01

    For a high-latitude country like Sweden snowfall is an important contributor to the regional water cycle. Furthermore, snowfall impacts surface properties, affects atmospheric thermodynamics, has implications for traffic and logistics management, disaster preparedness, and also impacts climate through changes in surface albedo and turbulent heat fluxes. For Sweden it has been shown that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, or weather states, are important for precipitation variability. Although the link between atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation has been investigated for rainfall there are no studies focused on the sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden.In this work we investigate the response of snowfall to eight selected weather states. These weather states consist of four dominant wind directions together with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns and enhanced positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The presented analysis is based on multiple data sources, such as ground-based radar measurements, satellite observations, spatially interpolated in situ observations, and reanalysis data. The data from these sources converge to underline the sensitivity of falling snow over Sweden to the different weather states.In this paper we examine both average snowfall intensities and snowfall accumulations associated with the different weather states. It is shown that, even though the heaviest snowfall intensities occur during conditions with winds from the south-west, the largest contribution to snowfall accumulation arrives with winds from the south-east. Large differences in snowfall due to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are shown as well as a strong effect of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns. Satellite observations are used to reveal the vertical structures of snowfall during the different weather states.

  17. Terminal weather information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Alfred T.

    1990-01-01

    Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

  18. Effect of Postsowing Compaction on Cold and Frost Tolerance of North China Plain Winter Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyun Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Improper postsowing compaction negatively affects soil temperature and thereby cold and frost tolerance, particularly in extreme cold weather. In North China Plain, the temperature falls to 5 degrees below zero, even lower in winter, which is period for winter wheat growing. Thus improving temperature to promote wheat growth is important in this area. A field experiment from 2013 to 2016 was conducted to evaluate effects of postsowing compaction on soil temperature and plant population of wheat at different stages during wintering period. The effect of three postsowing compaction methods—(1 compacting wheel (CW, (2 crosskill roller (CR, and (3 V-shaped compacting roller after crosskill roller (VCRCR—on winter soil temperatures and relation to wheat shoot growth parameters were measured. Results showed that the highest soil midwinter temperature was in the CW treatment. In the 20 cm and 40 cm soil layer, soil temperatures were ranked in the following order of CW > VCRCR > CR. Shoot numbers under CW, CR, and VCRCR treatments were statistically 12.40% and 8.18% higher under CW treatment compared to CR or VCRCR treatments at the end of wintering period. The higher soil temperature under CW treatment resulted in higher shoot number at the end of wintering period, apparently due to reduced shoot death by cold and frost damage.

  19. Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Collaud Coen

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2 measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l. have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each synoptic weather type to the aerosol concentration was deduced from the aerosol annual cycles while the planetary boundary layer (PBL influence was estimated by means of the diurnal cycles. Since aerosols are scavenged by precipitation, the diurnal cycle of the CO concentration was also used to identify polluted air masses. SO2 and NOx concentrations were used as precursor tracers for new particle formation and growth, respectively. The aerosol optical parameters and number concentration show elevated loadings during advective weather types during the December–March period and for the convective anticyclonic and convective indifferent weather types during the April–September period. This study confirms the consensus view that the JFJ is mainly influenced by the free troposphere during winter and by injection of air parcels from the PBL during summer. A more detailed picture is, however, drawn where the JFJ is completely influenced by free tropospheric air masses in winter during advective weather types and largely influenced by the PBL also during the night in summer during the subsidence weather type. Between these two extreme situations, the PBL influence at the JFJ depends on both the time of year and the synoptic weather type. The fraction of PBL air transported to the JFJ was estimated by the relative increase of the specific humidity and CO.

  20. Weathering and decontamination of radioactivity deposited on asphalt surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warming, L.

    1982-12-01

    Longlived fission products might be deposited in the environment after a serious reactor accident. At Risoe we have studied how danish weather conditions and fire hosing influence the decontamination of Rubidium 86 (representing Cesium 134 and 137) Barium-Lanthanum 140 and Ruthenium 103 deposited on asphalt surfaces. Measurements have been done at different types of roads and during all seasons including winter with snow and ice cover of the roads. The results from the first five experiments were used for calculating doses to the population in the land contamination (RISO-R-462). (author)

  1. Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

  2. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  3. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  4. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2018-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  5. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  6. Can GRACE detect winter snows in Japan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heki, Kosuke

    2010-05-01

    Current spatial resolution of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites is 300-400 km, and so its hydrological applications have been limited to continents and large islands. The Japanese Islands have width slightly smaller than this spatial resolution, but are known to show large amplitude seasonal changes in surface masses due mainly to winter snow. Such loads are responsible for seasonal crustal deformation observed with GEONET, a dense array of GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers in Japan (Heki, 2001). There is also a dense network of surface meteorological sensors for, e.g. snow depths, atmospheric pressures, etc. Heki (2004) showed that combined effects of surface loads, i.e. snow (predominant), atmosphere, soil moisture, dam impoundment, can explain seasonal crustal deformation observed by GPS to a large extent. The total weight of the winter snow in the Japanese Islands in its peak season may reach ~50 Gt. This is comparable to the annual loss of mountain glaciers in the Asian high mountains (Matsuo & Heki, 2010), and is above the detection level of GRACE. In this study, I use GRACE Level-2 Release-4 data from CSR, Univ. Texas, up to 2009 November, and evaluated seasonal changes in surface loads in and around the Japanese Islands. After applying a 350 km Gaussian filter and a de-striping filter, the peak-to-peak change of the water depth becomes ~4 cm in northern Japan. The maximum value is achieved in February-March. The region of large winter load spans from Hokkaido, Japan, to northeastern Honshu, which roughly coincides with the region of deep snow in Japan. Next I compiled snow depth data from surface meteorological observations, and converted them to loads using time-dependent snow density due to compaction. By applying the same spatial filter as the GRACE data, its spatial pattern becomes similar to the GRACE results. The present study suggests that GRACE is capable of detecting seasonal mass changes in an island arc not

  7. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-10-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  8. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-01-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  9. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    2013-12-01

    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  10. [Perceived pain and weather changes in rheumatic patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, L Cunha; Parente, M; Silva, C; Clemente-Coelho, P; Santos, H; Cortes, S; Medeiros, D; Ribeiro, J Saraiva; Barcelos, F; Sousa, M; Miguel, C; Figueiredo, R; Mediavilla, M; Simões, E; Silva, M; Patto, J Vaz; Madeira, H; Ferreira, J; Micaelo, M; Leitão, R; Las, V; Faustino, A; Teixeira, A

    2007-01-01

    Rheumatic patients with chronic pain describe in a vivid way the influence of climate on pain and disease activity. Several studies seem to confirm this association. To evaluate and compare in a population of rheumatic patients the perceived influence of weather changes on pain and disease activity This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. For three weeks an assisted self-reported questionnaire with nine dimensions and a VAS pain scale was performed on consecutive out-patients in our clinic. 955 patients 787 female 168 male mean age 57.9 years with several rheumatologic diagnosis were evaluated. Overall 70 of the patients believed that the weather influenced their disease and 40 believed that the influence was high. Morning stiffness was influenced in 54 high influenced in 34 . Autumn and Winter were the most influential periods as well as humidity 67 and low temperatures 59 . In our study as well as in literature we found that a high percentage of patients 70 perceived that weather conditions influenced their pain and disease. Fibromyalgia patients seemed to be strongly influenced by weather changes. Our study confirms that patients perception on the influence of climate on pain and therefore their disease is an important clinical factor and it should be considered when evaluating rheumatic patients.

  11. Economical effectiveness of fungal diseases control of winter wheat in 2000-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Jaczewska-Kalicka

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter wheat is a very susceptible species to infection by pathogenic fungi requires the application of plant protection products. Their effectiveness and profitability of application depend on numerous factors. The most important of them are: weather and environmental conditions, managing and organisation of production, the intensity of oc-currence and harmfulness of occurring pathogenes, the amount of obtained yield, costs of protection and grain selling prices. Presented research results are derived from plot ex-periments conducted in the Field Experimental Station IOR-PIB Grodzisk Mazowiecki, on the fields of Agricultural Experimental Station SGGW Chylice, mazowieckie voivode-ship, in 2000-2008 on winter wheat. A high differentiation was stated in profitability of applying particular fungicides, as well as considerable differences between particular vegetative seasons of winter wheat cultivation. In each year, except 2000, protection treatments were profitable, in spite of high costs being on average 10% of the value of protected crop.

  12. Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng

    2018-02-01

    Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

  13. Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

    2016-08-01

    Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

  14. Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

    2018-03-01

    Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

  15. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  16. Development of a model system to identify differences in spring and winter oat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawade, Aakash; Lindén, Pernilla; Bräutigam, Marcus; Jonsson, Rickard; Jonsson, Anders; Moritz, Thomas; Olsson, Olof

    2012-01-01

    Our long-term goal is to develop a Swedish winter oat (Avena sativa). To identify molecular differences that correlate with winter hardiness, a winter oat model comprising of both non-hardy spring lines and winter hardy lines is needed. To achieve this, we selected 294 oat breeding lines, originating from various Russian, German, and American winter oat breeding programs and tested them in the field in south- and western Sweden. By assaying for winter survival and agricultural properties during four consecutive seasons, we identified 14 breeding lines of different origins that not only survived the winter but also were agronomically better than the rest. Laboratory tests including electrolytic leakage, controlled crown freezing assay, expression analysis of the AsVrn1 gene and monitoring of flowering time suggested that the American lines had the highest freezing tolerance, although the German lines performed better in the field. Finally, six lines constituting the two most freezing tolerant lines, two intermediate lines and two spring cultivars were chosen to build a winter oat model system. Metabolic profiling of non-acclimated and cold acclimated leaf tissue samples isolated from the six selected lines revealed differential expression patterns of 245 metabolites including several sugars, amino acids, organic acids and 181 hitherto unknown metabolites. The expression patterns of 107 metabolites showed significant interactions with either a cultivar or a time-point. Further identification, characterisation and validation of these metabolites will lead to an increased understanding of the cold acclimation process in oats. Furthermore, by using the winter oat model system, differential sequencing of crown mRNA populations would lead to identification of various biomarkers to facilitate winter oat breeding.

  17. Weather conditions influencing phosphorus concentration in the growing period in the large shallow Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Tammeorg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of water temperature (T, water level (L, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, and wind speed (V on the total phosphorus concentration (TP in shallow eutrophic lake Peipsi, the fourth largest lake in Europe, was studied. We used a long-term dataset (1985-2010 of TP concentrations and weather factors. A Thin Plate Spline (TPS model was used to predict TP by year, by day of the year, and by geographical coordinates. Deviations between observed and predicted TP values (residuals, or TP anomalies were related to the weather variables to clarify how the weather anomalies in a year might correlate with the observed fluctuations in TP dynamics. Notable seasonal variations in TP, typical for many shallow lake systems, were found: TP was two to three times higher during late summer-early autumn than during winter. Patterns of TP variability were well predicted by using geographical coordinates, year and day of the year (R2=0.69; P<0.0001. However, TP anomalies were ascribed to the effects of T, L, PAR, and V, which were proved to play a significant additional role in TP dynamics. Moreover, L had consistently negative effects over the year, whereas the effects of T and PAR on TP change were seen to be dependent on the season. TP anomalies in lake Peipsi were most sensitive to wind anomalies. V was associated with frequent switches between increasing and decreasing TP values, though it appeared mainly as a negative driver of TP anomalies in the season prior to the 180th day, and as a positive driver in the subsequent season.

  18. Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds' departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deppe, Jill L; Ward, Michael P; Bolus, Rachel T; Diehl, Robert H; Celis-Murillo, Antonio; Zenzal, Theodore J; Moore, Frank R; Benson, Thomas J; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A; Schofield, Lynn N; Enstrom, David A; Paxton, Eben H; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W

    2015-11-17

    Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson's Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

  19. Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds’ departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deppe, Jill L.; Ward, Michael P.; Bolus, Rachel T.; Diehl, Robert H.; Celis-Murillo, A.; Zenzal, Theodore J.; Moore, Frank R.; Benson, Thomas J.; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Schofield, Lynn N.; Enstrom, David A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A.; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L.; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W.

    2015-01-01

    Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

  20. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  1. A methodology to leverage cross-sectional accelerometry to capture weather's influence in active living research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katapally, Tarun R; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

    2016-06-27

    While active living interventions focus on modifying urban design and built environment, weather variation, a phenomenon that perennially interacts with these environmental factors, is consistently underexplored. This study's objective is to develop a methodology to link weather data with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data in capturing weather variation. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear neighbourhoods. Thereafter, 137 Actical accelerometers were used to derive moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) data from 455 children in 25 sequential one-week cycles between April and June, 2010. This sequential deployment was necessary to overcome the difference in the ratio between the sample size and the number of accelerometers. A data linkage methodology was developed, where each accelerometry cycle was matched with localized (Saskatoon-specific) weather patterns derived from Environment Canada. Statistical analyses were conducted to depict the influence of urban design on MVPA and SB after factoring in localized weather patterns. Integration of cross-sectional accelerometry with localized weather patterns allowed the capture of weather variation during a single seasonal transition. Overall, during the transition from spring to summer in Saskatoon, MVPA increased and SB decreased during warmer days. After factoring in localized weather, a recurring observation was that children residing in fractured grid-pattern neighbourhoods accumulated significantly lower MVPA and higher SB. The proposed methodology could be utilized to link globally available cross-sectional accelerometry data with place-specific weather data to understand how built and social environmental factors interact with varying weather patterns in influencing active living.

  2. Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luedeling, Eike; Girvetz, Evan H; Semenov, Mikhail A; Brown, Patrick H

    2011-01-01

    Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.

  3. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Multimedia

    Corinne Pralavorio

    2016-01-01

    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  4. Temperature characteristics of winter roost-sites for birds and mammals: tree cavities and anthropogenic alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grüebler, Martin U.; Widmer, Silv; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Naef-Daenzer, Beat

    2014-07-01

    The microclimate of potential roost-sites is likely to be a crucial determinant in the optimal roost-site selection of endotherms, in particular during the winter season of temperate zones. Available roost-sites for birds and mammals in European high trunk orchards are mainly tree cavities, wood stacks and artificial nest boxes. However, little is known about the microclimatic patterns inside cavities and thermal advantages of using these winter roost-sites. Here, we simultaneously investigate the thermal patterns of winter roost-sites in relation to winter ambient temperature and their insulation capacity. While tree cavities and wood stacks strongly buffered the daily cycle of temperature changes, nest boxes showed low buffering capacity. The buffering effect of tree cavities was stronger at extreme ambient temperatures compared to temperatures around zero. Heat sources inside roosts amplified Δ T (i.e., the difference between inside and outside temperatures), particularly in the closed roosts of nest boxes and tree cavities, and less in the open wood stacks with stronger circulation of air. Positive Δ T due to the installation of a heat source increased in cold ambient temperatures. These results suggest that orchard habitats in winter show a spatiotemporal mosaic of sites providing different thermal benefits varying over time and in relation to ambient temperatures. At cold temperatures tree cavities provide significantly higher thermal benefits than nest boxes or wood stacks. Thus, in winter ecology of hole-using endotherms, the availability of tree cavities may be an important characteristic of winter habitat quality.

  5. Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; Xie, Yulong; Kraucunas, Ian

    2018-01-01

    Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

  6. Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results

  7. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jón Einar Jónsson

    Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

  8. Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

  9. Chemical Weathering on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolotov, Mikhail

    2018-01-01

    Chemical and phase compositions of Venus's surface could reflect history of gas- and fluid-rock interactions, recent and past climate changes, and a loss of water from the Earth's sister planet. The concept of chemical weathering on Venus through gas-solid type reactions has been established in 1960s after the discovery of hot and dense CO2-rich atmosphere inferred from Earth-based and Mariner 2 radio emission data. Initial works suggested carbonation, hydration, and oxidation of exposed igneous rocks and a control (buffering) of atmospheric gases by solid-gas type chemical equilibria in the near-surface lithosphere. Calcite, quartz, wollastonite, amphiboles, and Fe oxides were considered likely secondary minerals. Since the late 1970s, measurements of trace gases in the sub-cloud atmosphere by Pioneer Venus and Venera entry probes and Earth-based infrared spectroscopy doubted the likelihood of hydration and carbonation. The H2O gas content appeared to be low to allow a stable existence of hydrated and a majority of OH-bearing minerals. The concentration of SO2 was too high to allow the stability of calcite and Ca-rich silicates with respect to sulfatization to CaSO4. In 1980s, the supposed ongoing consumption of atmospheric SO2 to sulfates gained support by the detection of an elevated bulk S content at Venera and Vega landing sites. The induced composition of the near-surface atmosphere implied oxidation of ferrous minerals to magnetite and hematite, consistent with the infrared reflectance of surface materials. The likelihood of sulfatization and oxidation has been illustrated in modeling experiments at simulated Venus conditions. Venus's surface morphology suggests that hot surface rocks and fines of mainly mafic composition contacted atmospheric gases during several hundreds of millions years since a global volcanic resurfacing. Some exposed materials could have reacted at higher and lower temperatures in a presence of diverse gases at different altitudinal

  10. Does DNA methylation pattern mark generative development in winter rape?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Filek, M.; Janiak, A.; Szarejko, I.; Grabczynska, J.; Macháčková, Ivana; Krekule, Jan

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 61, 5-6 (2006), s. 387-396 ISSN 0939-5075 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA600040612 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50380511 Keywords : DNA methylation * rape * vernalization Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.720, year: 2006

  11. Coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia during a stormy winter period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Pablo; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; García-García, Luz; González-Nuevo, Gonzalo; Cabanas, Jose Manuel

    2013-01-01

    The consequences of a stormy winter period (2009/2010) on the shelf and coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia are analysed by using model results in combination with the set of available observations in the frame of the Iberian Margin Ocean Observatory (RAIA), a cross-border infrastructure among North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). During the study winter, the frequent arrival of weather fronts forced river plumes to flow along the inner shelf in a fast (>1 m s-1) jet-like structure. The buoyant current strongly influenced the outer rías, the name of the estuaries in the region, where a strong decay of surface salinity (15 °C) and salty (>35.9) waters into the rías associated with the Iberian Poleward Current. Finally, some Lagrangian modelling experiments were performed to analyse the transport ability of the plume and the effect that could have had in the biological material trapped on it. The experiments reveal that an overall northward displacement of surface particles will be expected after several alternate wind events.

  12. BLIZZARDS OF THE WINTER OF 2011-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ION MARINICĂ

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the main blizzards from the winter of 2011-2012, caused by the radical weather change on January 25th, 2012. After the excessively droughty autumn of 2011 (Marinică, Marinică, 2012, the warm December on the whole was followed by a warm January in the first 25 days, and then a sudden change of the thermal time type occurred. The excessively cold interval January 26th- February 15th, 2012 caused many human victims in the entire country and at the level of the whole European continent, as well as significant material damages, this short episode of severe winter has been one of the coldest of the history of climatic observations. The analysis is a continuation of extended studies on the ever-growing climatic oscillations and risks, as a consequence of the climatic variability increase in Romania (Bogdan, Marinică, 2007, 2009.The paper is useful for a broad category of specialists interested in the climate and climatic risk.

  13. Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greeves, C.Z.; Pope, V.D.; Stratton, R.A.; Martin, G.M. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks. (orig.)

  14. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

  15. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  16. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  17. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  18. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    around the sun. If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the black body ..... First law of thermodynamics. Relates ... (Third Edition) Charles E Merrill Publishing. Company.

  19. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  20. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  1. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  2. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  3. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  4. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  5. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  6. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  8. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  10. Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

    2017-04-01

    central European mean sea level pressure fields into "Großwettertypes" (Beck 2000) the relationships between meteorological variables and stroke frequencies are increasing. Mainly temperature variables (Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) appear to be important particularly in winter and summer. Moreover distinct correlations of similar magnitude are obtained with other variables like wind speed or precipitation for specific weather types (e.g. westerly type). In how far these initial findings do really point to additional health impacts beyond temperature effects is subject of ongoing work.

  11. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2017-09-01

    Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

  12. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

    2013-01-01

    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  13. The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'En; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

    2016-01-01

    The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

  14. Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    April E Reside

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

  15. An industry perspective on the use of seasonal forecasts and weather information for evaluating sensitivities in traded commodity supply chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domeisen, Daniela; Slavov, Georgi

    2015-04-01

    Weather information on seasonal timescales is crucial to various end users, from the level of subsistence farming to the government level. Also the financial industry is ever more aware of and interested in the benefits that early and correctly interpreted forecast information provides. Straight forward and often cited applications include the estimation of rainfall and temperature anomalies for drought - prone agricultural areas producing traded commodities, as well as some of the rather direct impacts of weather on energy production. Governments, weather services, as well as both academia and private companies are working on tailoring climate and weather information to a growing number of customers. However, also other large markets, such as coal, iron ore, and gas, are crucially dependent on seasonal weather information and forecasts, while the needs are again very dependent on the direction of the predicted signal. So far, relatively few providers in climate services address these industries. All of these commodities show a strong seasonal and weather dependence, and an unusual winter or summer can crucially impact their demand and supply. To name a few impacts, gas is crucially driven by heating demand, iron ore excavation is dependent on the available water resources, and coal mining is dependent on winter temperatures and rainfall. This contribution will illustrate and provide an inside view of the type of climate and weather information needed for the various large commodity industries.

  16. Road salt application planning tool for winter de-icing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Perera, Nandana

    2015-05-01

    Road authorities, who are charged with the task of maintaining safe, driveable road conditions during severe winter storm events are coming under increasing pressure to protect salt vulnerable areas (SVAs). For the purpose of modelling urban winter hydrology, the temperature index method was modified to incorporate ploughing and salting considerations and was calibrated using winter field data from two sites in Southern Ontario and validated using data collected from a section of Highway 401 - Canada's busiest highway. The modified temperature index model (MTIM) accurately predicted salt-induced melt (R2 = 0.98 and 0.99, RMSE = 19.9 and 282.4 m3, CRM = -0.003 and 0.006 for calibration and validation sites respectively), and showed a demonstrable ability to calculate the Bare Pavement Regain Time (BPRT). The BPRT is a key factor on road safety and the basis for many winter maintenance performance standards for different classes of highways. Optimizing salt application rate scenarios can be achieved using the MTIM with only two meteorological forecast inputs for the storm event - readily available on-line through the Road Weather Information System (RWIS) - and can serve as a simple yet effective tool for winter road maintenance practitioners seeking to optimize salt application rates for a given storm event in salt vulnerable areas.

  17. Weather conditions: a neglected factor in human salivary cortisol research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milas, Goran; Šupe-Domić, Daniela; Drmić-Hofman, Irena; Rumora, Lada; Klarić, Irena Martinović

    2018-02-01

    There is ample evidence that environmental stressors such as extreme weather conditions affect animal behavior and that this process is in part mediated through the elevated activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis which results in an increase in cortisol secretion. This relationship has not been extensively researched in humans, and weather conditions have not been analyzed as a potential confounder in human studies of stress. Consequently, the goal of this paper was to assess the relationship between salivary cortisol and weather conditions in the course of everyday life and to test a possible moderating effect of two weather-related variables, the climate region and timing of exposure to outdoors conditions. The sample consisted of 903 secondary school students aged 18 to 21 years from Mediterranean and Continental regions. Cortisol from saliva was sampled in naturalistic settings at three time points over the course of a single day. We found that weather conditions are related to salivary cortisol concentration and that this relationship may be moderated by both the specific climate and the anticipation of immediate exposure to outdoors conditions. Unpleasant weather conditions are predictive for the level of salivary cortisol, but only among individuals who anticipate being exposed to it in the immediate future (e.g., in students attending school in the morning shift). We also demonstrated that isolated weather conditions or their patterns may be relevant in one climate area (e.g., Continental) while less relevant in the other (e.g., Mediterranean). Results of this study draw attention to the importance of controlling weather conditions in human salivary cortisol research.

  18. Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Bussel, Van L.G.J.; Enders, Andreas; Specka, Xenia; Sosa, Carmen; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Tao, Fulu; Constantin, Julie; Raynal, Helene; Teixeira, Edmar; Grosz, Balázs; Doro, Luca; Zhao, Zhigan; Nendel, Claas; Kiese, Ralf; Eckersten, Henrik; Haas, Edwin; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wang, Enli; Kuhnert, Matthias; Trombi, Giacomo; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco; Lewan, Elisabet; Bach, Michaela; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rötter, Reimund; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Wallach, Daniel; Cammarano, Davide; Asseng, Senthold; Krauss, Gunther; Siebert, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 processbased crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and

  19. Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Hui

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

  20. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

  1. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    Meteorological conditions play a fundamental role during entire chestnut tree vegetative cycle. Chestnut trees are well adapted to mean year temperatures of 8-15°C, requires monthly mean temperatures greater than 10°C during 6 months (Gomes-Laranjo et al. 2008) and its pollen only germinates at relatively high temperatures of 27-30°C (Bounous, 2002). Photosynthesis of an adult tree is highly dependent of temperature. Photosynthesis is maximal at 24-28°C but it is inhibited for temperatures greater than 32°C (Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2005, 2006). Furthermore, there are significant differences between chestnut trees cultivated in northfaced orchads in relation to those cultivated in the southfaced and between leaves from different sides of the chestnut canopy because they receive different amounts of radiant energy and consequently they grow under different mean daily air temperature. The objective of this work was to assess the role of weather on chestnut production variability. This study was performed for the 28 years period defined between 1980 and 2007 and it was based on annual values of chestnut production and total area of production, at national level, provided by INE, the National Institute of Statistics of Portugal. The meteorological data used was provided by Meteored (http://www.meteored.com/) and includes daily values of precipitation, wind speed, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. All meteorological variables were tested as potential predictors by means of a simple correlation analysis. Multiple time intervals were considered in this the analysis, which consist in moving intervals of constant length and forward and backward evolutionary intervals. Results show that some meteorological variables present significant correlation with chestnut productivity particularly in the most relevant periods of the chestnut tree cycle, like the previous winter, the flushing phase and the maturation period. A regression model based on the winter (January

  2. Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

    2014-12-01

    GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

  3. Dynamical Networks Characterization of Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, L.; Chapman, S. C.; Dods, J.; Gjerloev, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather can cause disturbances to satellite systems, impacting navigation technology and telecommunications; it can cause power loss and aviation disruption. A central aspect of the earth's magnetospheric response to space weather events are large scale and rapid changes in ionospheric current patterns. Space weather is highly dynamic and there are still many controversies about how the current system evolves in time. The recent SuperMAG initiative, collates ground-based vector magnetic field time series from over 200 magnetometers with 1-minute temporal resolution. In principle this combined dataset is an ideal candidate for quantification using dynamical networks. Network properties and parameters allow us to characterize the time dynamics of the full spatiotemporal pattern of the ionospheric current system. However, applying network methodologies to physical data presents new challenges. We establish whether a given pair of magnetometers are connected in the network by calculating their canonical cross correlation. The magnetometers are connected if their cross correlation exceeds a threshold. In our physical time series this threshold needs to be both station specific, as it varies with (non-linear) individual station sensitivity and location, and able to vary with season, which affects ground conductivity. Additionally, the earth rotates and therefore the ground stations move significantly on the timescales of geomagnetic disturbances. The magnetometers are non-uniformly spatially distributed. We will present new methodology which addresses these problems and in particular achieves dynamic normalization of the physical time series in order to form the network. Correlated disturbances across the magnetometers capture transient currents. Once the dynamical network has been obtained [1][2] from the full magnetometer data set it can be used to directly identify detailed inferred transient ionospheric current patterns and track their dynamics. We will show

  4. Interim Report 'Winter smog and traffic'.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemen, H.; Blom, T.; Bogaard, van den C.; Boluyt, N.; Bree, van L.; Brunekreef, B.; Hoek, G.; Zee, van der S.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents a halfway score of the research project "Winter smog and Traffic", one of the themes of the research programme "Air Pollution and Health". A state of the art is presented of the health effects associated with exposure to winter smog and of the toxicological effects caused by the

  5. Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badash, Lawrence

    2001-03-01

    The nuclear winter phenomenon is used to illustrate the many paths by which scientific advice reaches decision makers in the United States government. Because the Reagan administration was hostile to the strategic policy that the scientific discovery seemed to demand, the leading proponent of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan, used his formidable talent for popularization to reach a larger audience.

  6. Chapter 7: Migration and winter ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Jean-Luc E. Cartron

    2000-01-01

    The willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) is a Neotropical migrant that breeds in North America, but winters in Central and northern South America. Little specific information is known about migration and wintering ecology of the southwestern willow flycatcher (E. t. extimus) (Yong and Finch 1997). Our report applies principally...

  7. Association between extraterrestrial phenomena and weather changes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bochníček, Josef; Hejda, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2002), s. 303-333 ISSN 0169-3298 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806; GA AV ČR IAA3042102 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * solar activity * temperature deviations * global atmospheric electric circuit Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.214, year: 2002

  8. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  9. Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

  10. Limited dietary overlap amongst resident Arctic herbivores in winter: complementary insights from complementary methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Niels M; Mosbacher, Jesper B; Vesterinen, Eero J; Roslin, Tomas; Michelsen, Anders

    2018-04-26

    Snow may prevent Arctic herbivores from accessing their forage in winter, forcing them to aggregate in the few patches with limited snow. In High Arctic Greenland, Arctic hare and rock ptarmigan often forage in muskox feeding craters. We therefore hypothesized that due to limited availability of forage, the dietary niches of these resident herbivores overlap considerably, and that the overlap increases as winter progresses. To test this, we analyzed fecal samples collected in early and late winter. We used molecular analysis to identify the plant taxa consumed, and stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen to quantify the dietary niche breadth and dietary overlap. The plant taxa found indicated only limited dietary differentiation between the herbivores. As expected, dietary niches exhibited a strong contraction from early to late winter, especially for rock ptarmigan. This may indicate increasing reliance on particular plant resources as winter progresses. In early winter, the diet of rock ptarmigan overlapped slightly with that of muskox and Arctic hare. Contrary to our expectations, no inter-specific dietary niche overlap was observed in late winter. This overall pattern was specifically revealed by combined analysis of molecular data and stable isotope contents. Hence, despite foraging in the same areas and generally feeding on the same plant taxa, the quantitative dietary overlap between the three herbivores was limited. This may be attributable to species-specific consumption rates of plant taxa. Yet, Arctic hare and rock ptarmigan may benefit from muskox opening up the snow pack, thereby allowing them to access the plants.

  11. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  12. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  13. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  14. Nuclear winter or nuclear fall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, André

    Climate is universal. If a major modern nuclear war (i.e., with a large number of small-yield weapons) were to happen, it is not even necessary to have a specific part of the world directly involved for there to be cause to worry about the consequences for its inhabitants and their future. Indeed, smoke from fires ignited by the nuclear explosions would be transported by winds all over the world, causing dark and cold. According to the first study, by Turco et al. [1983], air surface temperature over continental areas of the northern mid-latitudes (assumed to be the nuclear war theatre) would fall to winter levels even in summer (hence the term “nuclear winter”) and induce drastic climatic conditions for several months at least. The devastating effects of a nuclear war would thus last much longer than was assumed initially. Discussing to what extent these estimations of long-term impacts on climate are reliable is the purpose of this article.

  15. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  16. There's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing: climate, weather and active school transportation in Toronto, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Raktim; Faulkner, Guy

    2012-07-10

    Climatic conditions may enable or deter active school transportation in many North American cities, but the topic remains largely overlooked in the existing literature. This study explores the effect of seasonal climate (i.e., fall versus winter) and weekly weather conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on active travelling to school across different built and policy environments. Home-to-school trips by 11-12-year-old children in the City of Toronto were examined using data from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Binomial logistic regressions were estimated to explore the correlates of the choice of active (i.e., walking) versus non-active (i.e., private automobile, transit and school bus) mode for school trips. Climate and weather-related variables were not associated with choice of school travel mode. Children living within the sidewalk snow-plough zone (i.e., in the inner-suburban neighbourhoods) were less likely to walk to school than children living outside of the zone (i.e., in the inner-city neighbourhoods). Given that seasonality and short-term weather conditions appear not to limit active school transportation in general, built environment interventions designed to facilitate active travel could have benefits that spill over across the entire year rather than being limited to a particular season. Educational campaigns with strategies for making the trip fun and ensuring that the appropriate clothing choices are made are also warranted in complementing built environment modifications.

  17. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  18. [Tibial plateau fractures in winter sports. Current treatment options].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, V

    2014-01-01

    Tibial plateau fractures overall and especially in winter sports are rare. However, the incidence in recent years is increasing. In a retrospective study from 2009-2012, we found 52 injuries affiliated with winter sports. Noticeable was the high rate of severe injury patterns. In 20 of the 52 cases, there were complete articular or bicondylar fractures (38 %). In 25 cases (48 %), fragment dislocation corresponding to the Moore classification was observed. The operative algorithm was based on the initial soft tissue damage and the type of fracture. A two or more stage procedure with first line soft tissue management and temporary external fixation stabilization was performed 12 times. The final internal osteosynthesis was based on the morphology of the fracture, i.e., direct exposition and stabilization of relevant fracture patterns. In 24 cases (46 %), there was a need for two (or more) approaches. In the anterior aspect of the tibial head, customary implants were used; posterior pathologies were stabilized with low-dimension implants. Summarizing with regard to the literature, there is a more discriminating view of tibial plateau fractures, regarding all relevant fracture patterns. Thus, different options in operative access and choice of implants can be made.

  19. Winter fidelity and apparent survival of lesser snow goose populations in the Pacific flyway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.K.; Samuel, M.D.; Baranyuk, Vasily V.; Cooch, E.G.; Kraege, Donald K.

    2008-01-01

    The Beringia region of the Arctic contains 2 colonies of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada, and wintering in North America. The Wrangel Island population is composed of 2 subpopulations from a sympatric breeding colony but separate wintering areas, whereas the Banks Island population shares a sympatric wintering area in California, USA, with one of the Wrangel Island subpopulations. The Wrangel Island colony represents the last major snow goose population in Russia and has fluctuated considerably since 1970, whereas the Banks Island population has more than doubled. The reasons for these changes are unclear, but hypotheses include independent population demographics (survival and recruitment) and immigration and emigration among breeding or wintering populations. These demographic and movement patterns have important ecological and management implications for understanding goose population structure, harvest of admixed populations, and gene flow among populations with separate breeding or wintering areas. From 1993 to 1996, we neckbanded molting birds at their breeding colonies and resighted birds on the wintering grounds. We used multistate mark-recapture models to evaluate apparent survival rates, resighting rates, winter fidelity, and potential exchange among these populations. We also compared the utility of face stain in Wrangel Island breeding geese as a predictor of their wintering area. Our results showed similar apparent survival rates between subpopulations of Wrangel Island snow geese and lower apparent survival, but higher emigration, for the Banks Island birds. Males had lower apparent survival than females, most likely due to differences in neckband loss. Transition between wintering areas was low (exchange between the Banks and northern Wrangel Island populations. Face staining was an unreliable indicator of wintering area. Our findings suggest that northern and southern

  20. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

    2017-03-01

    The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

  1. Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

  2. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  3. Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

    2008-06-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

  4. North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean inter-annual variability over the past fifty years - Dominant patterns and decadal shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Tristan; Demirov, Entcho; Zhu, Jieshun; Yashayaev, Igor

    2015-03-01

    positive over the eastern SPNA. The long term impact of the weather regimes on the regional climate is characterized by their distribution; i.e. the frequency of occurrence and persistence in time of each of them. Four typical distributions of the weather regimes are identified in this study which are associated with four dominant spatial interannual patterns representing the phases of two asymmetrical "modes". The first two patterns have the spatial structures of positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The third and fourth patterns, here referred to as G+ and G-, define the opposite phases of a mode, that has a spatial structure defined by three centers found over Florida, south of Greenland and over Scandinavia. The NAO+ interannual patterns are associated with negative anomalies of the surface downward heat flux and ocean heat content over the SPNA. The NAO- and G+ are associated with positive anomalies of heat flux and ocean heat content. In the 1960s the dominant NAO- and G+ interannual patterns favored warmer than normal atmospheric and ocean temperatures over the SPNA. The winters in the late 1980s and early 1990s over the SPNA were colder than normal. This decadal shift in the atmospheric state between 1970s and 1980s was associated with a change in the dominant interannual patterns towards NAO+ and G- in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The recent warming of the SPNA since the mid-1990s was related to dominance of the G+/G- interannual patterns in the distribution of interannual patterns probability membership. Our analysis suggests that this decadal variability was associated with long term shifts in atmospheric behavior over the SPNA that can be described by a change in the 1980s of the distribution of membership probabilities for the interannual patterns. Within the interannual pattern phase space, this change is characterized with a shift from the NAO-/G+/G- subspace in the 1950 and 1960s, towards NAO+/G+/G- since the mid 1980s.

  5. Diurnal Freeze-Thaw Cycles Modify Winter Soil Respiration in a Desert Shrub-Land Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Liu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Winter soil respiration (Rs is becoming a significant component of annual carbon budgets with more warming in winter than summer. However, little is known about the controlling mechanisms of winter Rs in dryland. We made continuous measurements of Rs in four microsites (non-crust (BS, lichen (LC, moss (MC, and a mixture of moss and lichen (ML in a desert shrub-land ecosystem northern China, to investigate the causes of Rs dynamics in winter. The mean winter Rs ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 µmol CO2 m−2·s−1 across microsites, with the highest value in BS. Winter Q10 (known as the increase in respiration rate per 10 °C increase in temperature values (2.8–19 were much higher than those from the growing season (1.5. Rs and Q10 were greatly enhanced in freeze-thaw cycles compared to frozen days. Diurnal patterns of Rs between freeze-thaw and frozen days differed. Although the freeze-thaw period was relatively short, its cumulative Rs contributed significantly to winter Rs. The presence of biocrust might induce lower temperature, thus having fewer freeze-thaw cycles relative to bare soil, leading to the lower Rs for microsites with biocrusts. In conclusion, winter Rs in drylands was sensitive to soil temperature (Ts and Ts-induced freeze-thaw cycles. The temperature impact on Rs varied among soil cover types. Winter Rs in drylands may become more important as the climate is continuously getting warmer.

  6. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  7. Polar-Tropical Coupling in the Winter Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, R.

    2017-12-01

    A distinct pattern of enhanced equatorial potential vorticitygradients during QBO westerly anomalies, enhanced subtropicalgradients during QBO easterlies, is used to motivate a new formulationof dynamical coupling between the tropics and winter polar vortexbased on remote transfer of finite amplitude wave activity defined interms of lateral potential vorticity displacements. While the weakpotential vorticity gradients in the surf zone imply laterallyevanescent Rossby waves, transfer of wave activity from the polarvortex edge to the subtropical barrier or to the QBO westerly phaseequatorial gradients arises from nonlocality of potential vorticityinversion and the large horizontal displacements of the vortex edge.Our approach goes beyond the traditional description of the effect ofQBO wind anomalies on linear wave propagation through the stratospherevia wave reflection at the zero wind line; linear wave theory isappealing but neglects the long horizontal and vertical wavelengthsinvolved and the inhomogeneous background potential vorticity. Aparticular issue of outstanding interest is whether and how therelatively shallow QBO anomalies can influence the deep verticallypropagating waves on the edge of the winter stratospheric polarvortex. Process studies with a mechanistic model with prescribed QBOand carefully controlled high-latitude wave forcing are analyzed,guided by a reexamination of meteorological reanalysis, to address howsuch a dynamical linkage may influence in particular the resonantexcitation of the winter vortex, and the occurrence ofvortex-splitting sudden warming events. We quantify the associatedtransfer of wave activity from vortex edge to the tropics, considerunder what conditions this becomes a significant source of easterlymomentum in the driving of the QBO itself, and how the structure ofthe Brewer-Dobson circulation varies in response to the location ofthe QBO westerly winds in any given winter.

  8. Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Todor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

  9. A trial of cross-disciplinary classes at the university and the high school on the seasonal transition and the seasonal feeling from autumn to winter in East Asia (joint activity of meteorology with Japanese classical literature, music and art)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, K.; Sato, S.; Kato, H.; Akagi, R.; Sueishi, N.; Mori, T.; Nakakura, T.; Irie, I.

    2012-04-01

    There are many steps of the rapid seasonal transitions in East Asia influenced by the seasonal cycle of the Asian monsoon system, resulting in the variety of "seasonal feeling" there. For example, the extremely cold air flowing from the Siberian continent to the Japan Islands is transformed by the huge supply of heat and moisture from the underlying sea (the Japan Sea) in midwinter, which brings the large amount of snowfall in the Japan Sea side of the Japan Islands. However, although the air temperature there is still rather higher from November to early December than in the midwinter, such wintertime weather pattern often appears due to the early development of the Siberian high (however, the precipitation is brought not as in snow but as rain). The intermittent rainfall in such situation due to the shallow cumulus clouds from late autumn to early winter is called the word "Shi-gu-re" in Japanese. It is also well known that the "Shi-gu-re" is often used for expression of the "seasonal feeling" in the Japanese classical literature (especially we can see in the Japanese classic poems called "Wa-Ka"). The present study reports a trial of cross-disciplinary class on the seasonal cycle in East Asia in association with the "seasonal feeling" from autumn to winter, by the joint activity of meteorology with the Japanese classical literature, the music, and the art. Firstly, we will summarize the characteristics of the large-scale climate systems and the daily weather situations from autumn to winter. We will also introduce some examples of the expression of the weather situation found in the Japanese classical poems. Next the outline of the cross-disciplinary classes on such topics at the Faculty of Education, Okayama University, and those at Okayama-Ichinomiya High School and Attached Junior High School of Okayama University will be presented together with the analyses of these practices. We should note that the present trial of the classes might also contribute to

  10. Is countershading camouflage robust to lighting change due to weather?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penacchio, Olivier; Lovell, P George; Harris, Julie M

    2018-02-01

    Countershading is a pattern of coloration thought to have evolved in order to implement camouflage. By adopting a pattern of coloration that makes the surface facing towards the sun darker and the surface facing away from the sun lighter, the overall amount of light reflected off an animal can be made more uniformly bright. Countershading could hence contribute to visual camouflage by increasing background matching or reducing cues to shape. However, the usefulness of countershading is constrained by a particular pattern delivering 'optimal' camouflage only for very specific lighting conditions. In this study, we test the robustness of countershading camouflage to lighting change due to weather, using human participants as a 'generic' predator. In a simulated three-dimensional environment, we constructed an array of simple leaf-shaped items and a single ellipsoidal target 'prey'. We set these items in two light environments: strongly directional 'sunny' and more diffuse 'cloudy'. The target object was given the optimal pattern of countershading for one of these two environment types or displayed a uniform pattern. By measuring detection time and accuracy, we explored whether and how target detection depended on the match between the pattern of coloration on the target object and scene lighting. Detection times were longest when the countershading was appropriate to the illumination; incorrectly camouflaged targets were detected with a similar pattern of speed and accuracy to uniformly coloured targets. We conclude that structural changes in light environment, such as caused by differences in weather, do change the effectiveness of countershading camouflage.

  11. Restoration of severely weathered wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam. Williams; Mark. Knaebe

    2000-01-01

    Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

  12. Weather delay costs to trucking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  13. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  14. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  15. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  16. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  17. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  18. Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Richard A.

    The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

  19. Overview of climatic effects of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.; Malone, R.C.

    1985-01-01

    A general description of the climatic effects of a nuclear war are presented. This paper offers a short history of the subject, a discussion of relevant parameters and physical processes, and a description of plausible nuclear winter scenario. 9 refs

  20. Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  1. Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

    2015-09-01

    Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

  2. Unexpected Patterns in Snow and Dirt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerson, Bruce J.

    2018-01-01

    For more than 30 years, Albert A. Bartlett published "Thermal patterns in the snow" in this journal. These are patterns produced by heat sources underneath the snow. Bartlett's articles encouraged me to pay attention to patterns in snow and to understanding them. At winter's end the last snow becomes dirty and is heaped into piles. This…

  3. Analysis of Satellite AIS Data to Derive Weather Judging Criteria for Voyage Route Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michio Fujii

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The operational limitations are discussed at the IMO as a part of the second generation intact stability criteria. Since it is a first attempt to introduce operational efforts into safety regulations, comprehensive discussions are necessary to realize practically acceptable ones. Therefore this study investigates actual navigation routes of container ships and pure car carriers in the trans-North Pacific Ocean in winter, because they are prone to suffer significant parametric roll which is one of stability failure modes. Firstly, interviews are made to shipmasters who have experiences to have operated the subject ships to identify major elements for route selection in the North Pacific Ocean. Secondly, sufficient number of actual navigation records is collected from Satellite AIS data to derive the weather criteria for the route selection in severe weather condition. Finally, shipmaster’s on-board decision-making criteria are discussed by analysing the ship tracking data and weather data.

  4. Temporal Variability and Characterization of Aerosols across the Pakistan Region during the Winter Fog Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fahim Khokhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Fog is a meteorological/environmental phenomenon which happens across the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP and leads to significant social and economic problems, especially posing significant threats to public health and causing disruptions in air and road traffic. Meteorological stations in Pakistan provide limited information regarding fog episodes as these provide only point observations. Continuous monitoring, as well as a spatially coherent picture of fog distribution, is possible through the use of satellite observations. This study focuses on the 2012–2015 winter fog episodes over the Pakistan region using the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO products. The main objective of the study was to map the spatial distribution of aerosols, their types, and to identify the aerosol origins during special weather conditions like fog in Pakistan. The study also included ground monitoring of particulate matter (PM concentrations, which were conducted during the 2014–2015 winter period only. Overall, this study is part of a multi-country project supported by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD, started in 2014–2015 winter period, whereby scientists from Bangladesh, India and Nepal have also conducted measurements at their respective sites. A significant correlation between MODIS (AOD and AERONET Station (AOD data from Lahore was identified. Mass concentration of PM10 at all sampling sites within Lahore city exceeded the National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS levels on most of the occasions. Smoke and absorbing aerosol were found to be major constituents of winter fog in Pakistan. Furthermore, an extended span of winter fog was also observed in Lahore city during the winter of 2014–2015. The Vertical Feature Mask (VFM provided by CALIPSO satellite confirmed the low-lying aerosol

  5. Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ying

    2017-04-01

    Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

  6. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  7. Numerical simulation of a winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

    2014-09-01

    This study analyzes the cause of rare occurrence of winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options, hail or graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. On evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that hail option shows similar precipitation intensity with TRMM observation than the graupel option and is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model simulated output with hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached upto the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of WD. Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  8. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    KAUST Repository

    Chevuturi, A.

    2014-12-19

    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  9. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert)

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  10. Coming to grips with nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherr, S.J.

    1985-01-01

    This editorial examines the politics related to the concept of nuclear winter which is a term used to describe temperature changes brought on by the injection of smoke into the atmosphere by the massive fires set off by nuclear explosions. The climate change alone could cause crop failures and lead to massive starvation. The author suggests that the prospect of a nuclear winter should be a deterrent to any nuclear exchange

  11. Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

  12. Developing New Strategies for Coping with Weather: Work in Alaskan and Canadian Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, D. E.

    2014-12-01

    A changing climate is manifested at ground level through the day to day weather. For all Northern residents - community, industrial, operational and response - the need to think about the weather is ever present. Northern residents, and in particular, indigenous community residents, fully understand implications of the weather, however, a comment that has been heard more often is that old ways of knowing are not as reliable as they once were. Weather patterns seem less consistent and subject to more rapid fluctuations. Compromised traditional ways of knowing puts those who need to travel or hunt at greater risk. One response to adapt to this emerging reality is to make greater use of western sources of information, such as weather data and charts provided by NOAA's National Weather Service or Environment Canada. The federal weather agencies have very large and complex forecasting regions to cover, and so one problem is that it can be difficult to provide perfectly tailored forecasts, that cover all possible problems, right down to the very local scale in the communities. Only those affected have a complete feel for their own concerns. Thus, key to a strategy to improve the utility of available weather information is a linking of local-scale manifestations of problematic weather to the larger-scale weather patterns. This is done in two ways: by direct consultation with Northern residents, and by installation of equipment to measure parameters of interest to residents, which are not already being measured. This talk will overview projects in coastal Alaska and Canada targeting this objective. The challenge of designing and conducting interviews, and then of harvesting relevant information, will be visited using examples from the three major contexts: coastal community, industrial, and operational. Examples of how local comments can be married to weather products will be presented.

  13. Winter Dew Harvest in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arias-Torres Jorge Ernesto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study presents experimental and theoretical results of winter dew harvest in México City in terms of condensation rate. A simplified theoretical model based on a steady-state energy balance on a radiator-condenser was fitted, as a function of the ambient temperature, the relative humidity and the wind velocity. A glass sheet and aluminum sheet white-painted were used as samples over the outdoor experiments. A good correlation was obtained between the theoretical and experimental data. The experimental results show that there was condensation in 68% of the winter nights on both condensers. The total winter condensed mass was 2977 g/m2 and 2888 g/m2 on the glass sheet and aluminum sheet white-painted, respectively. Thus, the condensed mass on the glass was only 3% higher than that on the painted surface. The maximum nightly dew harvests occurred during December, which linearly reduced from 50 g/m2 night to 22 g/m2 night as the winter months went by. The condensation occurred from 1:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m., with maximum condensation rates between 6:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. The dew harvest can provide a partial alternative to the winter water shortage in certain locations with similar climates to the winter in Mexico City, as long as pollution is not significant.

  14. New winter hardy winter bread wheat cultivar (Triticum aestivum L. Voloshkova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Л. М. Голик

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Creation of Initial raw for breeding of winter wheat by change of the development type under low temperatures influence was described. Seeds of spring wheat were vernalized in aluminum weighting bottle. By using low temperatures at sawing of M2-6 at the begin ind of optimal terms of sawing of winter wheat, new winter-hardy variety of Voloshkova was bred.

  15. Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Quan Ou

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS: This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS: The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52% from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24% from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%. We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037, but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40% and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64% in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION: Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate

  16. The isotopic composition of precipitation from a winter storm – a case study with the limited-area model COSMOiso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yoshimura

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Stable water isotopes are valuable tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, and potentially provide useful information also on weather-related processes. In order to further explore this potential, the water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated into the limited-area model COSMO. In a first case study, the new COSMOiso model is used for simulating a winter storm event in January 1986 over the eastern United States associated with intense frontal precipitation. The modelled isotope ratios in precipitation and water vapour are compared to spatially distributed δ18O observations. COSMOiso very accurately reproduces the statistical distribution of δ18O in precipitation, and also the synoptic-scale spatial pattern and temporal evolution agree well with the measurements. Perpendicular to the front that triggers most of the rainfall during the event, the model simulates a gradient in the isotopic composition of the precipitation, with high δ18O values in the warm air and lower values in the cold sector behind the front. This spatial pattern is created through an interplay of large scale air mass advection, removal of heavy isotopes by precipitation at the front and microphysical interactions between rain drops and water vapour beneath the cloud base. This investigation illustrates the usefulness of high resolution, event-based model simulations for understanding the complex processes that cause synoptic-scale variability of the isotopic composition of atmospheric waters. In future research, this will be particularly beneficial in combination with laser spectrometric isotope observations with high temporal resolution.

  17. Crop coefficients for winter wheat in a sub-humid climate regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærsgaard, Jeppe Hvelplund; Plauborg, Finn; Mollerup, Mikkel

    2008-01-01

    Estimations of evapotranspiration (ET) from natural surfaces are used in a large number of applications such as agricultural water management and water resources planning. Lack of reliable, cheap and easy-to-use instruments, associated with the chaotic and varying nature of the meteorological...... coefficients for a winter wheat crop growing under standard conditions, i.e. not short of water and growing under optimal agronomic conditions, were estimated for a cold sub-humid climate regime. One of the two methods used to estimate ET from a reference crop required net radiation (Rn) as input. Two sets...... of coefficients were used for calculating Rn. Weather data from a meteorological station was used to estimate Rn and ET from the reference crop. The winter wheat ET was measured using an eddy covariance system during the main parts of the growing seasons 2004 and 2005. The meteorological data and field...

  18. Preparations for Severe Winter Conditions by Emergency Health Personnel in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calışkan, Cüneyt; Algan, Aysun; Koçak, Hüseyin; Biçer, Burcu Küçük; Sengelen, Meltem; Cakir, Banu

    2014-04-23

    Emergency and core ambulance personnel work under all environmental conditions, including severe weather condtions. We evaluated emergency medical personnel in Çanakkale, Turkey, for their degree of preparedness. A descriptive study was conducted in Çanakkale, Turkey, within 112 emergency service units and their 17 district stations. Surveys were developed to measure the level of preparedness for serious winter conditions that individual workers made for themselves, their homes, and their cars. Of the 167 survey participants, the mean age was 29.8 ± 7.9 years; 52.7% were women; more than half (54.75%) were emergency medical technicians; and 53.3% were married. Only 10.4% of those who heated their homes with natural gas had carbon monoxide detectors. Scores relating to household and individual preparation for severe winter conditions increased by participants' age (P tires (P winter conditions (P = .016). Many of the surveyed emergency health personel demonstrated insufficient preparations for serious winter conditions. To increase the safety and efficiency of emergency medical personnel, educational training programs should be rountinely conducted. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4).

  19. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  20. Soil physical attributes in forms of sowing the annual winter pasture and intervals between grazing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milton da Veiga

    Full Text Available The sowing of winter pastures in areas used for summer grain production and their management under direct cattle grazing can cause changes in soil physical attributes, whose intensity depends on the degree of soil mobilization, grazing interval, stocking rate and weather. To study these aspects it was conducted over four years an experiment in a randomized block with split plots design and four replications. In the main plots were applied two forms of sowing the annual winter pasture (direct seeding and seeding + harrowing and, in the subplots, four intervals between grazing (7, 14 and 28 days and ungrazed. Undisturbed soil cores were sampled at the end of each grazing cycle, in the 0-0.05 m layer to determine the saturated hydraulic conductivity and aggregate stability and in the layers of 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.15 and 0.15-0.20 m depth to determine bulk density and classes of soil pores. The direct seeding of annual winter pasture increases hydraulic conductivity and reduces soil bulk density in relation to seeding + harrowing while dairy cows trampling increases soil density and reduces macroporosity in the most superficial soil layer. The variation in climatic conditions among grazing cycles affects the soil physical attributes more markedly than forms of sowing and intervals between grazing of the annual winter pasture.