Sample records for winter weather nowcasting

  1. Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project (United States)

    Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.


    A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

  2. Winter Weather Emergencies (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  3. Winter weather demand considerations. (United States)


    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  4. Detecting weather radar clutter using satellite-based nowcasting products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas B.S.; Gill, Rashpal S.; Overgaard, Søren


    This contribution presents the initial results from experiments with detection of weather radar clutter by information fusion with satellite based nowcasting products. Previous studies using information fusion of weather radar data and first generation Meteosat imagery have shown promising results...... for the detecting and removal of clutter. Naturally, the improved spatio-temporal resolution of the Meteosat Second Generation sensors, coupled with its increased number of spectral bands, is expected to yield even better detection accuracies. Weather radar data from three C-band Doppler weather radars...... Application Facility' of EUMETSAT and is based on multispectral images from the SEVIRI sensor of the Meteosat-8 platform. Of special interest is the 'Precipitating Clouds' product, which uses the spectral information coupled with surface temperatures from Numerical Weather Predictions to assign probabilities...

  5. Combining weather radar nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models to estimate short-term quantitative precipitation and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, David Getreuer

    The topic of this Ph.D. thesis is short term forecasting of precipitation for up to 6 hours called nowcasts. The focus is on improving the precision of deterministic nowcasts, assimilation of radar extrapolation model (REM) data into Danish Meteorological Institutes (DMI) HIRLAM numerical weather...

  6. An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Based Nowcasting System: Software Description (United States)


    14. ABSTRACT A Web service /Web interface software package has been engineered to address the need for an automated means to run the Weather Research...An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Based Nowcasting System: Software Description by Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and...Based Nowcasting System: Software Description Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and Robert E. Dumais Jr. Computational and Information Sciences

  7. Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Price


    Full Text Available Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, oftenresulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods,forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence,etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging stormscan be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF]sensors, to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sensors, and even global scales(using extremely low frequency [ELF] sensors. Using sensors that detect the radio wavesemitted by each lightning discharge, it is now possible to observe and track continuouslydistant thunderstorms using ground networks of sensors. In addition to the number oflightning discharges, these sensors can also provide information on lightningcharacteristics such as the ratio between intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, thepolarity of the lightning discharge, peak currents, charge removal, etc. It has been shownthat changes in some of these lightning characteristics during thunderstorms are oftenrelated to changes in the severity of the storms. In this paper different lightning observingsystems are described, and a few examples are provided showing how lightning may beused to monitor storm hazards around the globe, while also providing the possibility ofsupplying short term forecasts, called nowcasting.

  8. Use of the European Severe Weather Database to verify satllite-based storm detection or nowcasting


    Dotzek, Nikolai; Forster, Caroline


    Severe thunderstorms constitute a major weather hazard in Europe, with an estimated total damage of € 5-8 billion each year. Yet a pan-European database of severe weather reports in a homogeneous data format has become available only recently: the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). We demonstrate the large potential of ESWD applications for storm detection and forecast or nowcasting/warning verification purposes. The study of five warm-season severe weather days in Europe from 2007 a...

  9. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  10. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  11. Winter Weather Checklists (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  12. Winter Weather: Frostbite (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  13. Aspects of Applying Weather Radar Based Nowcast for Highways in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Quist, MIchael; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    nowcast can be used for two scenarios: 1) Safety - reduced visibility and possibility for aquaplaning can jeopardise the safety of the road users 2) Construction and maintenance - ensuring protection against flooding and pollution. The two different applications can represent two different precipitation......The Danish road network consists of 73.331 km. of roads. 3.790 km. of these roads are state roads and are considered as major lines of transportation. Although these roads only represent 5% of the total network, 45% of all traffic is moving along these roads. Application of weather radar based...... on the visibility, rain intensity and rain volume. This can actively be used to optimise basin volumes and to direct critical information to traffic. A system for nowcast dedicated to road applications are under development in Denmark. This paper investigates the different approaches in nowcasting of precipitation...

  14. Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Wilson, John W.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Solomon, Stan C.; Wiltberger, J.; Kunches, Joseph; Kress, Brian T.; Murray, John J.


    There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked

  15. Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc


    Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of

  16. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  17. Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. (United States)

    Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.


    The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

  18. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R


    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  19. Nowcasting in the FROST-2014 Sochi Olympic project (United States)

    Bica, Benedikt; Wang, Yong; Joe, Paul; Isaac, George; Kiktev, Dmitry; Bocharnikov, Nikolai


    FROST (Forecast and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed) 2014 is a WMO WWRP international project aimed at development, implementation, and demonstration of capabilities of short-range numerical weather prediction and nowcasting technologies for mountainous terrain in winter season. Sharp weather contrasts and high spatial and temporal variability are typical for the region of the Sochi-2014 Olympics. Steep mountainous terrain and an intricate mixture of maritime sub-tropical and Alpine environments make weather forecasting in this region extremely challenging. Goals of the FROST-2014 project: • To develop a comprehensive information resource of Alpine winter weather observations; • To improve and exploit: o Nowcasting systems of high impact weather phenomena (precipitation type and intensity, snow levels, visibility, wind speed, direction and gusts) in complex terrain; o High-resolution deterministic and ensemble mesoscale forecasts in winter complex terrain environment; • To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; • To deliver forecasts (Nowcasts) to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers and assess benefits of forecast improvement. 46 Automatic Meteorological Stations (AMS) were installed in the Olympic region by Roshydromet, by owners of sport venues and by the Megafon corporation, provider of mobile communication services. The time resolution of AMS observations does not exceed 10 minutes. For a subset of the stations it is even equal to 1 min. Data flow from the new dual polarization Doppler weather radar WRM200 in Sochi was organized at the end of 2012. Temperature/humidity and wind profilers and two Micro Rain Radars (MRR) will supplement the network. Nowcasting potential of NWP models participating in the project (COSMO, GEM, WRF, AROME, HARMONIE) is to be assessed for direct and post-processed (e.g. Kalman filter, 1-D model, MOS) model forecasts. Besides the meso-scale models, the specialized

  20. Travel in adverse winter weather conditions by blind pedestrians. (United States)


    Winter weather creates many orientation and mobility (O&M) challenges for people who are visually impaired. Getting the cane tip stuck is one of the noticeable challenges when traveling in snow, particularly when the walking surface is covered in dee...

  1. Winter Weather Tips: Understanding Alerts and Staying Safe this Season | Poster (United States)

    By Jenna Seiss and Kylie Tomlin, Guest Writers, and Ashley DeVine, Staff Writer Maryland residents face the possibility of dangerous winter weather each year—from icy conditions to frigid temperatures. You may be familiar with the different types of winter weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), but do you know what each alert means?  

  2. Van Allen Probes Science Gateway: Single-Point Access to Long-Term Radiation Belt Measurements and Space Weather Nowcasting (United States)

    Romeo, G.; Barnes, R. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.


    The Science Gateway gives single-point access to over 4.5 years of comprehensive wave and particle measurements from the Van Allen Probes NASA twin-spacecraft mission. The Gateway provides a set of visualization and data analysis tools including: HTML5-based interactive visualization of high-level data products from all instrument teams in the form of: line plots, orbital content plots, dynamical energy spectra, L-shell context plots (including two-spacecraft plotting), FFT spectra of wave data, solar wind and geomagnetic indices data, etc.; download custom multi-instrument CDF data files of selected data products; publication quality plots of digital data; combined orbit predicts for mission planning and coordination including: Van Allen Probes, MMS, THEMIS, Arase (ERG), Cluster, GOES, Geotail, FIREBIRD; magnetic footpoint calculator for coordination with LEO and ground-based assets; real-time computation and processing of empirical magnetic field models - computation of magnetic ephemeris, computation of adiabatic invariants. Van Allen Probes is the first spacecraft mission to provide a nowcast of the radiation environment in the heart of the radiation belts, where the radiation levels are the highest and most dangerous for spacecraft operations. For this purpose, all instruments continuously broadcast a subset of their science data in real time. Van Allen Probes partners with four foreign institutions who operate ground stations that receive the broadcast: Korea (KASI), the Czech republic (CAS), Argentina (CONAE), and Brazil (INPE). The SpWx broadcast is then collected at APL and delivered to the community via the Science Gateway.

  3. Application of ground-based, multi-channel microwave radiometer in the nowcasting of intense convective weather through instability indices of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, P.W.; Hon, K.K. [Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong (China)


    A ground-based microwave radiometer gives the possibility of providing continuously available temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere, from which instability indices of the atmosphere could be derived. This paper studies the possibility of correlating the radiometer-based instability indices with the occurrence of intense convective activity, namely, the occurrence of lightning. The correlation so established could be useful for the nowcasting of convective weather: the weather forecaster follows the evolution of the radiometer-based instability indices in order to access the chance for lightning to occur. The quality of the radiometer-based instability indices is first established by comparing with the radiosonde-based indices. Though there are biases and spreads in the scatter plots of the two datasets, the radiometer-based indices appear to follow the trend of the radiosonde-based indices in spite of the differences in measurement locations and working principles of the two instruments. The thresholds of instability indices for the occurrence of lightning (using 1 discharge) are then determined, specifically for the radiometer in use and the climatological condition in Hong Kong. It turns out that, among all the indices considered in this paper, KI has the best performance in terms of probability of detection of lightning occurrence, particularly for non-summer months, by using an optimum threshold. Finally, the correlation between the instability index and the amount of lightning strokes (within a certain distance from the radiometer) is established. It turns out that the correlation is the best using the minimum value of humidity index, with correlation coefficient of 0.55. The distance from the radiometer considered is about 30 km (having the best correlation between the number of lightning discharges and the instability index), which may be taken as the area over which the radiometer's measurement is considered to be representative of the

  4. A Numerical Method to Generate High Temporal Resolution Precipitation Time Series by Combining Weather Radar Measurements with a Nowcast Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    The topic of this paper is temporal interpolation of precipitation observed by weather radars. Precipitation measurements with high spatial and temporal resolution are, in general, desired for urban drainage applications. An advection-based interpolation method is developed which uses methods...

  5. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States. (United States)

    Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A


    Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

  6. Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting


    Shi, Xingjian; Chen, Zhourong; Wang, Hao; Yeung, Dit-Yan; Wong, Wai-kin; Woo, Wang-chun


    The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (F...

  7. The impact of winter cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, João; Freire, Elisabete; Almendra, Ricardo


    Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases shows a seasonal trend that can be associated with cold weather. Portugal is the European country with the highest excess winter mortality, but nevertheless, the relationship between cold weather and health is yet to be assessed. The main aim of this study is to identify the contribution of cold weather to cardiovascular diseases within Portugal. Poisson regression analysis based on generalized additive models was applied to estimate the influence of a human-biometeorological index (PET) on daily hospitalizations for myocardial infarction. The main results revealed a negative effect of cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal. For every degree fall in PET during winter, there was an increase of up to 2.2% (95% CI = 0.9%; 3.3%) in daily hospital admissions. This paper shows the need for public policies that will help minimize or, indeed, prevent exposure to cold. -- Highlights: ► We model the relationship between daily hospitalizations due to myocardial infarctions and cold weather in Portugal. ► We use Physiological Equivalent temperature (PET) as main explanatory variable. ► We adjust the models to confounding factors such as influenza and air pollution. ► Daily hospitalizations increased up to 2.2% per degree fall of PET during winter. ► Exposure to cold weather has a negative impact on human health in Portugal. -- There is an increase of up to 2.2% in daily hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarctions per degree fall of thermal index during the winter months in Portugal

  8. Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network (United States)

    Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan


    Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

  9. Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain. (United States)

    Royé, D; Taboada, J J; Martí, A; Lorenzo, M N


    The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

  10. Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain (United States)

    Royé, D.; Taboada, J. J.; Martí, A.; Lorenzo, M. N.


    The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

  11. Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong


    Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)

  12. Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables. (United States)

    Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P


    Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Winter Weather (United States)

    ... Safety and Health Program Recommendations It's the Law Poster REGULATIONS Law and Regulations Standard Interpretations Training Requirements ... page requires that javascript be enabled for some elements to function correctly. Please contact the OSHA Directorate ...

  14. Assimilation of radar-based nowcast into HIRLAM NWP model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, David Getreuer; Petersen, Claus; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    The present study introduces a nowcast scheme that assimilates radar extrapolation data (RED) into a nowcasting version of the high resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model covering the area of Denmark. The RED are based on the Co-TREC (tracking radar echoes...... by correlation) methodology and are generated from cleaned radar mosaics from the Danish weather radar network. The assimilation technique is a newly developed method that increases model precipitation by increasing low-level convergence and decreasing convergence aloft in order to increase the vertical velocity....... The level of improved predictability relies on the RED quality, which again relies on the type of event....

  15. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.


    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  16. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah. (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A; Laird, Neil F


    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s -1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s -1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s -1 , or 61 km h -1 . In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  17. Assessment of weather-associated causes of red spruce winter injury and consequences to aboveground carbon sequestration (United States)

    Paul G. Schaberg; Brynne E. Lazarus; Gary J. Hawley; Joshua M. Halman; Catherine H. Borer; Christopher F. Hansen


    Despite considerable study, it remains uncertain what environmental factors contribute to red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) foliar winter injury and how much this injury influences tree C stores. We used a long-term record of winter injury in a plantation in New Hampshire and conducted stepwise linear regression analyses with local weather and regional...

  18. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.


    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle ( Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  19. A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11 (United States)

    Cradden, Lucy C.; McDermott, Frank


    Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009–10 and 2010–11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009–10 and 2010–11 winters are examined, and 2010–11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.

  20. Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists’ Accidents in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Élise Lépy


    Full Text Available (1 Background: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists’ health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2 Methods: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3 Results: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4 Conclusions: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change.

  1. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein


    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  2. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein


    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  3. Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations (United States)

    Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.


    Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial

  4. Strong convective storm nowcasting using a hybrid approach of convolutional neural network and hidden Markov model (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Ling; Han, Lei


    Convective storm nowcasting refers to the prediction of the convective weather initiation, development, and decay in a very short term (typically 0 2 h) .Despite marked progress over the past years, severe convective storm nowcasting still remains a challenge. With the boom of machine learning, it has been well applied in various fields, especially convolutional neural network (CNN). In this paper, we build a servere convective weather nowcasting system based on CNN and hidden Markov model (HMM) using reanalysis meteorological data. The goal of convective storm nowcasting is to predict if there is a convective storm in 30min. In this paper, we compress the VDRAS reanalysis data to low-dimensional data by CNN as the observation vector of HMM, then obtain the development trend of strong convective weather in the form of time series. It shows that, our method can extract robust features without any artificial selection of features, and can capture the development trend of strong convective storm.

  5. A deep belief network approach using VDRAS data for nowcasting (United States)

    Han, Lei; Dai, Jie; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Changjiang; Feng, Hanlei


    Nowcasting or very short-term forecasting convective storms is still a challenging problem due to the high nonlinearity and insufficient observation of convective weather. As the understanding of the physical mechanism of convective weather is also insufficient, the numerical weather model cannot predict convective storms well. Machine learning approaches provide a potential way to nowcast convective storms using various meteorological data. In this study, a deep belief network (DBN) is proposed to nowcast convective storms using the real-time re-analysis meteorological data. The nowcasting problem is formulated as a classification problem. The 3D meteorological variables are fed directly to the DBN with dimension of input layer 6*6*80. Three hidden layers are used in the DBN and the dimension of output layer is two. A box-moving method is presented to provide the input features containing the temporal and spatial information. The results show that the DNB can generate reasonable prediction results of the movement and growth of convective storms.

  6. The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade (United States)

    Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.


    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

  7. Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin (United States)

    Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe


    Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

  8. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, Josef; Thaler, S.; Schmid, E.; Strauss, F.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Saylan, L.; Çaldag, B.; Caylak, O.


    Roč. 151, č. 6 (2013), s. 813-835 ISSN 0021-8596 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : crop models * weather conditions * winter wheat * Austria Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.891, year: 2013

  9. Improved nowcasting of precipitation based on convective analysis fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Haiden


    Full Text Available The high-resolution analysis and nowcasting system INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis developed at the Austrian national weather service provides three-dimensional fields of temperature, humidity, and wind on an hourly basis, and two-dimensional fields of precipitation rate in 15 min intervals. The system operates on a horizontal resolution of 1 km and a vertical resolution of 100–200 m. It combines surface station data, remote sensing data (radar, satellite, forecast fields of the numerical weather prediction model ALADIN, and high-resolution topographic data. An important application of the INCA system is nowcasting of convective precipitation. Based on fine-scale temperature, humidity, and wind analyses a number of convective analysis fields are routinely generated. These fields include convective boundary layer (CBL flow convergence and specific humidity, lifted condensation level (LCL, convective available potential energy (CAPE, convective inhibition (CIN, and various convective stability indices. Based on the verification of areal precipitation nowcasts it is shown that the pure translational forecast of convective cells can be improved by using a decision algorithm which is based on a subset of the above fields, combined with satellite products.

  10. Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus winter mortality in The Netherlands : The effect of severe weather and food supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Camphuysen, CJ; Ens, B.J.; Heg, Dierik; Hulscher, JB; VanderMeer, J; Smit, CJ


    Wintering Oystercatchers in The Netherlands are concentrated in the Wadden Sea (c. 200 000), with substantial numbers in the Delta area (c. 90 000). Only 1% of the total wintering population is normally found along the North Sea coast. Cold-rushes under severe winter conditions lead to a reduction

  11. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games (United States)

    Doyle, Chris


    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  12. Weather daily variation in winter and its effect on behavior and affective states in day-care children (United States)

    Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone


    This study aimed to analyze the impact of winter weather conditions on young children's behavior and affective states by examining a group of 61 children attending day-care centers in Florence (Italy). Participants were 33 males, 28 females and their 11 teachers. The mean age of the children at the beginning of the observation period was 24.1 months. The day-care teachers observed the children's behavioral and emotional states during the morning before their sleeping time and filled in a questionnaire for each baby five times over a winter period of 3 weeks. Air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and solar radiation data were collected every 15 min from a weather station located in the city center of Florence. At the same time, air temperature and relative humidity data were collected in the classroom and in the garden of each day-care center. We used multilevel linear models to evaluate the extent to which children's emotional and behavioral states could be predicted by weather conditions, controlling for child characteristics (gender and age). The data showed that relative humidity and solar radiation were the main predictors of the children's emotional and behavioral states. The outdoor humidity had a significant positive effect on frustration, sadness and aggression; solar radiation had a significant negative effect only on sadness, suggesting that a sunny winter day makes children more cheerful. The results are discussed in term of implications for parents and teachers to improve children's ecological environment.

  13. Weather regimes in the South American sector and neighbouring oceans during winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solman, S.A.; Menendez, C.G. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA-CONICET/UBA), Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina)


    We classified 34 years of winter daily 500 hPa geopotential height patterns over the eastern South Pacific-South America-South Atlantic region using the K-means clustering method. We found a significant classification into five weather regimes (WRs) defined as the most frequent large-scale circulation anomalies: WR1 (trough centred downstream of the Drake Passage), WR2 (trough over the SW Pacific and ridge downstream), WR3 (ridge over the SE Pacific and NW-SE trough downstream), WR4 (trough over the SE Pacific and NW-SE ridge downstream) and WR5 (weak ridge to the west of southern South America). We also analysed their persistence and temporal evolution, including transitions between them and development around onsets and breaks of each regime. The preferred transitions, WR1{yields}WR3{yields}WR2{yields}WR4{yields}WR1 and also WR1{yields}WR3{yields}WR2{yields}WR1, suggest the progression of a Rossby wave-like pattern in which each of the regimes resemble the Pacific-South America modes. Significant influence of the WRs on local climate over Argentina was found. The preferred transitions WR1{yields}WR3 and WR3{yields}WR2 induce sustained cold conditions over Patagonia and over northern Argentina, respectively. The most significant change in precipitation frequency is found for WR3, with wetter conditions over all the analysed regions. Finally, the interannual to interdecadal significant variations in the occurrence of these regimes were discussed. WR1 and WR3 are more frequent and WR2 is less frequent during El Nino, and WR2 and WR5 are more frequent and WR1 is less frequent during La Nina. A significant decrease in WR2 and increase of WR4 and WR5 during the 1970s and early 1980s were found. (orig.)

  14. FLYSAFE, nowcasting of in flight icing supporting aircrew decision making process (United States)

    Drouin, A.; Le Bot, C.


    FLYSAFE is an Integrated Project of the 6th framework of the European Commission with the aim to improve flight safety through the development of a Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System (NGISS). The NGISS provides information to the flight crew on the three major external hazards for aviation: weather, air traffic and terrain. The NGISS has the capability of displaying data about all three hazards on a single display screen, facilitating rapid pilot appreciation of the situation by the flight crew. Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) were developed to provide the NGISS and the flight crew with weather related information on in-flight icing, thunderstorms, wake-vortex and clear-air turbulence. These products are generated on the ground from observations and model forecasts. WIMS supply relevant information on three different scales: global, regional and local (over airport Terminal Manoeuvring Area). Within the flysafe program, around 120 hours of flight trials were performed during February 2008 and August 2008. Two aircraft were involved each with separate objectives : - to assess FLYSAFE's innovative solutions for the data-link, on-board data fusion, data-display, and data-updates during flight; - to evaluate the new weather information management systems (in flight icing and thunderstorms) using in-situ measurements recorded on board the test aircraft. In this presentation we will focus on the in-flight icing nowcasting system developed at Météo France in the framework of FLYSAFE: the local ICE WIMS. The local ICE WIMS is based on data fusion. The most relevant information for icing detection is extracted from the numerical weather prediction model, the infra-red and visible satellite imagery and the ground weather radar reflectivities. After a presentation of the local ICE WIMS, we detail the evaluation of the local ICE WIMS performed using the winter and summer flight trial data.

  15. Determining effects of an all weather logging road on winter woodland caribou habitat use in south-eastern Manitoba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doug W. Schindler


    Full Text Available The Owl Lake boreal woodland caribou population is the most southerly population in Manitoba. It is provincially ranked as a High Conservation Concern Population. Forestry operations exist in the area and there are plans for further forest harvest and renewal. The Happy Lake logging road is the only main access through the Owl Lake winter range. This logging road is currently closed to the public and access is limited to forestry operations during specific times of the year. An integrated forestry/caribou management strategy for the area provides for the maintenance of minimum areas of functional habitat. Habitat quality along the road was compared to habitat quality in the winter core use areas, within the winter range and outside the winter range. To evaluate the extent of functional habitat near the road, we conducted animal location and movement analysis using GPS data collected from January 2002 to March 2006. Habitat quality in the winter range, core use areas and along the road were assessed and found to be similar. Analysis of caribou locations and movement illustrate less use of high quality habitat adjacent to the Happy Lake Road. Loss of functional habitat is suggested to occur within 1 kilometre of the road. This potential loss of functional habitat should be incorporated into integrated forestry and caribou conservation strategies. Road management is recommended to minimize the potential sensory disturbance and associated impacts of all weather access on boreal woodland caribou.

  16. A nowcast-forecast information system for PWS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, G.L.; Cox, W.


    The development of the Prince William Sound Oil Spill Recovery Institute's (ORI) nowcast-forecast information system was discussed. OSRI addresses oil spill response and prevention research and development in the Arctic and subArctic. A realistic electronic model of the ecosystem was a much needed tool for efficient prioritization of oil spill technologies. The OSRI Sound Ecosystem Assessment (SEA) research program focused on developing a physical-biological model that consisted of static and biological resources that change over long time periods. This includes bathymetry, shoreline type, and substrate-dependent vegetation. It also focused on developing a model of dynamic properties such as wind, weather, plankton, and wildlife populations that undergo significant changes on annual or shorter time scales. The nowcast information system is a long-term development project which uses the Princeton ocean model (POM), a static runoff model, a network of weather and water observation stations, an Intranet which allows the observational data to run in near-real time and an Internet home page. It will contribute to sustaining the natural resources of coastal areas. It was concluded that the nowcast-forecast information system has short-term applications to oil spill prevention and response and long-term applications to the natural resources at risk to spills. 33 refs

  17. Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.


    The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

  18. Nowcasting wind power for grid operation at RWE Transportnetz from Strom GmbH (RWE TSO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ernst, B.; Vanzetta, J.


    This paper presented new methods of balancing power supply and demand for electricity systems that have a large share of wind power. Wind power forecasting plays a key role in integrating a large share of wind power into an electricity system, as it links the weather dependent production with the scheduled production of conventional power plants and the forecast of the electricity demand. Wind power forecasts are essential for grid operation. Since most European electricity markets focus on the day ahead market, wind balancing is also done the day ahead. A current trend is that the intra day markets are increasing in popularity and becoming more liquid. Therefore, nowcasting will play a vital role in improving wind power related economics because shorter timeframes are much easier and better to predict. Nowcasting uses actual measurements of weather and also considers power data. Many wind power prediction tools for day ahead forecasts are available. Most models have 3 common steps, notably numerical weather prediction, wind-to-power model and regional up-scaling. A comparison between recent measurements with the output of numerical weather models showed that nowcasting provides a forecast that outperforms a pure numerical weather forecast. The first results were very promising. All 3 nowcasting solutions were found to have their own unique advantages and limitations. Ongoing research will continue to improve wind power prediction. 2 refs., 3 figs

  19. Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals. (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R


    Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region (United States)


    Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

  1. Application and Study of Precipitation Schemes in Weather Simulation in Summer and Winter over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Guoqiang; WAN Qilin; HUANG Liping; XUE Jishan; CHEN Dehui


    Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme and Betts-Miller (BM) scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded.Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.

  2. A random forest algorithm for nowcasting of intense precipitation events (United States)

    Das, Saurabh; Chakraborty, Rohit; Maitra, Animesh


    Automatic nowcasting of convective initiation and thunderstorms has potential applications in several sectors including aviation planning and disaster management. In this paper, random forest based machine learning algorithm is tested for nowcasting of convective rain with a ground based radiometer. Brightness temperatures measured at 14 frequencies (7 frequencies in 22-31 GHz band and 7 frequencies in 51-58 GHz bands) are utilized as the inputs of the model. The lower frequency band is associated to the water vapor absorption whereas the upper frequency band relates to the oxygen absorption and hence, provide information on the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. Synthetic minority over-sampling technique is used to balance the data set and 10-fold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the model. Results indicate that random forest algorithm with fixed alarm generation time of 30 min and 60 min performs quite well (probability of detection of all types of weather condition ∼90%) with low false alarms. It is, however, also observed that reducing the alarm generation time improves the threat score significantly and also decreases false alarms. The proposed model is found to be very sensitive to the boundary layer instability as indicated by the variable importance measure. The study shows the suitability of a random forest algorithm for nowcasting application utilizing a large number of input parameters from diverse sources and can be utilized in other forecasting problems.

  3. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack


    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  4. Nowcasting daily minimum air and grass temperature (United States)

    Savage, M. J.


    Site-specific and accurate prediction of daily minimum air and grass temperatures, made available online several hours before their occurrence, would be of significant benefit to several economic sectors and for planning human activities. Site-specific and reasonably accurate nowcasts of daily minimum temperature several hours before its occurrence, using measured sub-hourly temperatures hours earlier in the morning as model inputs, was investigated. Various temperature models were tested for their ability to accurately nowcast daily minimum temperatures 2 or 4 h before sunrise. Temperature datasets used for the model nowcasts included sub-hourly grass and grass-surface (infrared) temperatures from one location in South Africa and air temperature from four subtropical sites varying in altitude (USA and South Africa) and from one site in central sub-Saharan Africa. Nowcast models used employed either exponential or square root functions to describe the rate of nighttime temperature decrease but inverted so as to determine the minimum temperature. The models were also applied in near real-time using an open web-based system to display the nowcasts. Extrapolation algorithms for the site-specific nowcasts were also implemented in a datalogger in an innovative and mathematically consistent manner. Comparison of model 1 (exponential) nowcasts vs measured daily minima air temperatures yielded root mean square errors (RMSEs) <1 °C for the 2-h ahead nowcasts. Model 2 (also exponential), for which a constant model coefficient ( b = 2.2) was used, was usually slightly less accurate but still with RMSEs <1 °C. Use of model 3 (square root) yielded increased RMSEs for the 2-h ahead comparisons between nowcasted and measured daily minima air temperature, increasing to 1.4 °C for some sites. For all sites for all models, the comparisons for the 4-h ahead air temperature nowcasts generally yielded increased RMSEs, <2.1 °C. Comparisons for all model nowcasts of the daily grass

  5. Design and management of public health outreach using interoperable mobile multimedia: an analysis of a national winter weather preparedness campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Bandera


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts outreach for public preparedness for natural and manmade incidents. In 2011, OPHPR conducted a nationwide mobile public health (m-Health campaign that pushed brief videos on preparing for severe winter weather onto cell phones, with the objective of evaluating the interoperability of multimedia m-Health outreach with diverse cell phones (including handsets without Internet capability, carriers, and user preferences. Methods Existing OPHPR outreach material on winter weather preparedness was converted into mobile-ready multimedia using mobile marketing best practices to improve audiovisual quality and relevance. Middleware complying with opt-in requirements was developed to push nine bi-weekly multimedia broadcasts onto subscribers’ cell phones, and OPHPR promoted the campaign on its web site and to subscribers on its notification platform. Multimedia, text, and voice messaging activity to/from the middleware was logged and analyzed. Results Adapting existing media into mobile video was straightforward using open source and commercial software, including web pages, PDF documents, and public service announcements. The middleware successfully delivered all outreach videos to all participants (a total of 504 videos regardless of the participant’s device. 54 % of videos were viewed on cell phones, 32 % on computers, and 14 % were retrieved by search engine web crawlers. 21 % of participating cell phones did not have Internet access, yet still received and displayed all videos. The time from media push to media viewing on cell phones was half that of push to viewing on computers. Conclusions Video delivered through multimedia messaging can be as interoperable as text messages, while providing much richer information. This may be the only multimedia mechanism available to outreach campaigns

  6. Design and management of public health outreach using interoperable mobile multimedia: an analysis of a national winter weather preparedness campaign. (United States)

    Bandera, Cesar


    The Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR) in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts outreach for public preparedness for natural and manmade incidents. In 2011, OPHPR conducted a nationwide mobile public health (m-Health) campaign that pushed brief videos on preparing for severe winter weather onto cell phones, with the objective of evaluating the interoperability of multimedia m-Health outreach with diverse cell phones (including handsets without Internet capability), carriers, and user preferences. Existing OPHPR outreach material on winter weather preparedness was converted into mobile-ready multimedia using mobile marketing best practices to improve audiovisual quality and relevance. Middleware complying with opt-in requirements was developed to push nine bi-weekly multimedia broadcasts onto subscribers' cell phones, and OPHPR promoted the campaign on its web site and to subscribers on its notification platform. Multimedia, text, and voice messaging activity to/from the middleware was logged and analyzed. Adapting existing media into mobile video was straightforward using open source and commercial software, including web pages, PDF documents, and public service announcements. The middleware successfully delivered all outreach videos to all participants (a total of 504 videos) regardless of the participant's device. 54 % of videos were viewed on cell phones, 32 % on computers, and 14 % were retrieved by search engine web crawlers. 21 % of participating cell phones did not have Internet access, yet still received and displayed all videos. The time from media push to media viewing on cell phones was half that of push to viewing on computers. Video delivered through multimedia messaging can be as interoperable as text messages, while providing much richer information. This may be the only multimedia mechanism available to outreach campaigns targeting vulnerable populations impacted by the digital divide

  7. Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Planchon


    Full Text Available An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray. The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.

  8. Visual Analysis for Nowcasting of Multidimensional Lightning Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Peters


    Full Text Available Globally, most weather-related damages are caused by thunderstorms. Besides floods, strong wind, and hail, one of the major thunderstorm ground effects is lightning. Therefore, lightning investigations, including detection, cluster identification, tracking, and nowcasting are essential. To enable reliable decisions, current and predicted lightning cluster- and track features as well as analysis results have to be represented in the most appropriate way. Our paper introduces a framework which includes identification, tracking, nowcasting, and in particular visualization and statistical analysis of dynamic lightning data in three-dimensional space. The paper is specifically focused on enabling users to conduct the visual analysis of lightning data for the purpose of identification and interpretation of spatial-temporal patterns embedded in lightning data, and their dynamics. A graphic user interface (GUI is developed, wherein lightning tracks and predicted lightning clusters, including their prediction certainty, can be investigated within a 3D view or within a Space-Time-Cube. In contrast to previous work, our approach provides insight into the dynamics of past and predicted 3D lightning clusters and cluster features over time. We conclude that an interactive visual exploration in combination with a statistical analysis can provide new knowledge within lightning investigations and, thus, support decision-making in weather forecast or lightning damage prevention.

  9. National Weather Service (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  10. Realizing User-Relevant Conceptual Model for the Ski Jump Venue of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics (United States)

    Teakles, Andrew; Mo, Ruping; Dierking, Carl F.; Emond, Chris; Smith, Trevor; McLennan, Neil; Joe, Paul I.


    As was the case for most other Olympic competitions, providing weather guidance for the ski jump and Nordic combined events involved its own set of unique challenges. The extent of these challenges was brought to light before the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics during a series of outflow wind events in the 2008/2009 winter season. The interactions with the race officials during the difficult race conditions brought on by the outflows provided a new perspective on the service delivery requirements for the upcoming Olympic Games. In particular, the turbulent nature of the winds and its impact on the ski jump practice events that season highlighted the need of race officials for nowcasting advice at very short time scales (from 2 min to 1 h) and forecast products tailored to their decision-making process. These realizations resulted in last minute modifications to the monitoring strategy leading up to the Olympic Games and required forecasters' conceptual models for flow within the Callaghan Valley to be downscaled further to reflect the evolution of turbulence at the ski jump site. The SNOW-V10 (Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010) team provided support for these efforts by supplying diagnostic case analyses of important events using numerical weather data and by enhancing the real-time monitoring capabilities at the ski jump venue.

  11. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system (United States)

    Novak, Petr


    To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

  12. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann


    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  13. On the performance of the new NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorological Institute during a heavy rain period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus


    At the Danish Meteorological Institute, the NWP nowcasting system has been enhanced to include assimilation of 2D precipitation rates derived from weather radar observations. The assimilation is performed using a nudging-based technique. Here the rain rates are used to estimate the changes in the...

  14. Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public (United States)

    Woo, Wang-chun


    The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user

  15. Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Skripniková, Kateřina


    Roč. 171, 1 May (2016), s. 66-76 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P701 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : hail * numerical weather prediction * COSMO * nowcasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016

  16. Winter Weather Response Guide (United States)


    The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has been given statutory authority for the : planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the State Highway System. With : few new highways being constructed, the operation and maintenan...

  17. Status of the Polar Engineering Development Center's (PEDC) Open-Closed Boundary Synoptic Nowcast (United States)

    Gerrard, A. J.; Kim, H.


    We present the most recent Polar Engineering Development Center (PEDC) developments, specifically the first magnetic-field open-closed boundary (OCB) determination scheme. This scheme is implemented in "near real time" and utilizes data from an array of fluxgate magnetometers that are distributed across the high Antarctic plateau, as per Urban et al. [2012]. This OCB determination enables a high-latitude, synoptic measure of space weather variability that provides for more regional determinations of particle precipitation and related impacts. This methodology therefore supplements exciting "index-based" or empically-based space weather nowcasts currently in use.

  18. Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network (United States)

    Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.


    An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

  19. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.


    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  20. Nowcasting Surface Meteorological Parameters Using Successive Correction Method

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henmi, Teizi


    The successive correction method was examined and evaluated statistically as a nowcasting method for surface meteorological parameters including temperature, dew point temperature, and horizontal wind vector components...

  1. Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.


    Roč. 101, March (2014), s. 272-282 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : sunshine number * nowcasting * generalized additive model * Markov chain Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.469, year: 2014

  2. Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (United States)

    Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti


    An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

  3. A nowcasting technique based on application of the particle filter blending algorithm (United States)

    Chen, Yuanzhao; Lan, Hongping; Chen, Xunlai; Zhang, Wenhai


    To improve the accuracy of nowcasting, a new extrapolation technique called particle filter blending was configured in this study and applied to experimental nowcasting. Radar echo extrapolation was performed by using the radar mosaic at an altitude of 2.5 km obtained from the radar images of 12 S-band radars in Guangdong Province, China. The first bilateral filter was applied in the quality control of the radar data; an optical flow method based on the Lucas-Kanade algorithm and the Harris corner detection algorithm were used to track radar echoes and retrieve the echo motion vectors; then, the motion vectors were blended with the particle filter blending algorithm to estimate the optimal motion vector of the true echo motions; finally, semi-Lagrangian extrapolation was used for radar echo extrapolation based on the obtained motion vector field. A comparative study of the extrapolated forecasts of four precipitation events in 2016 in Guangdong was conducted. The results indicate that the particle filter blending algorithm could realistically reproduce the spatial pattern, echo intensity, and echo location at 30- and 60-min forecast lead times. The forecasts agreed well with observations, and the results were of operational significance. Quantitative evaluation of the forecasts indicates that the particle filter blending algorithm performed better than the cross-correlation method and the optical flow method. Therefore, the particle filter blending method is proved to be superior to the traditional forecasting methods and it can be used to enhance the ability of nowcasting in operational weather forecasts.

  4. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eitzinger, J; Thaler, S; Schmid, E


    the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing...

  5. Doppler weather radar based nowcasting of cyclone Ogni

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ganges, Brahmaputra, etc. To address issues of disaster management ... Disaster Management Support Project (DMSP). Processing of Indian ...... fall estimation, etc., using Gematronik make DWR over Indian region. The quality controlled DWR data will be of great use to the NWP modelling community. In respect of the ...

  6. Colonisation of winter wheat grain by Fusarium spp. and mycotoxin content as dependent on a wheat variety, crop rotation, a crop management system and weather conditions. (United States)

    Czaban, Janusz; Wróblewska, Barbara; Sułek, Alicja; Mikos, Marzena; Boguszewska, Edyta; Podolska, Grażyna; Nieróbca, Anna


    Field experiments were conducted during three consecutive growing seasons (2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10) with four winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars - 'Bogatka', 'Kris', 'Satyna' and 'Tonacja' - grown on fields with a three-field crop rotation (winter triticale, spring barley, winter wheat) and in a four-field crop rotation experiment (spring wheat, spring cereals, winter rapeseed, winter wheat). After the harvest, kernels were surface disinfected with 2% NaOCl and then analysed for the internal infection by different species of Fusarium. Fusaria were isolated on Czapek-Dox iprodione dichloran agar medium and identified on the basis of macro- and micro-morphology on potato dextrose agar and synthetic nutrient agar media. The total wheat grain infection by Fusarium depended mainly on relative humidity (RH) and a rainfall during the flowering stage. Intensive rainfall and high RH in 2009 and 2010 in the period meant the proportions of infected kernels by the fungi were much higher than those in 2008 (lack of precipitation during anthesis). Weather conditions during the post-anthesis period changed the species composition of Fusarium communities internally colonising winter wheat grain. The cultivars significantly varied in the proportion of infected kernels by Fusarium spp. The growing season and type of crop rotation had a distinct effect on species composition of Fusarium communities colonising the grain inside. A trend of a higher percentage of the colonised kernels by the fungi in the grain from the systems using more fertilisers and pesticides as well as the buried straw could be perceived. The most frequent species in the grain were F. avenaceum, F. tricinctum and F. poae in 2008, and F. avenaceum, F. graminearum, F. tricinctum and F. poae in 2009 and 2010. The contents of deoxynivalenol and zearalenon in the grain were correlated with the percentage of kernels colonised by F. graminearum and were the highest in 2009 in the grain from the four

  7. Satellite-based technique for nowcasting of thunderstorms over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Suman Goyal


    Aug 31, 2017 ... Due to inadequate radar network, satellite plays the dominant role for nowcast of these thunderstorms. In this study, a nowcast based algorithm ForTracc developed by Vila ... of actual development of cumulonimbus clouds, ... MCS over Indian region using Infrared Channel ... (2016) based on case study of.

  8. Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.A. Aastveit; F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)


    markdownabstract__Abstract__ We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination

  9. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari


    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  10. Solar activity: nowcasting and forecasting at the SIDC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Berghmans


    Full Text Available The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC is the World Data Center for the production and the distribution of the International Sunspot Index, coordinating a network of about 80 stations worldwide. From this core activity, the SIDC has grown in recent years to a European center for nowcasting and forecasting of solar activity on all timescales. This paper reviews the services (data, forecasts, alerts, software that the SIDC currently offers to the scientific community. The SIDC operates instruments both on the ground and in space. The USET telescope in Brussels produces daily white light and Hα images. Several members of the SIDC are co-investigators of the EIT instrument onboard SOHO and are involved in the development of the next generation of Europe's solar weather monitoring capabilities. While the SIDC is staffed only during day-time (7 days/week, the monitoring service is a 24 h activity thanks to the implementation of autonomous software for data handling and analysis and the sending of automated alerts. We will give an overview of recently developed techniques for visualization and automated analysis of solar images and detection of events significant for space weather (e.g. CMEs or EIT waves. As part of the involvement of the SIDC in the ESA Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications we have developed services dedicated to the users of the Global Positioning System (GPS. As a Regional Warning Center (RWC of the International Space Environment Service (ISES, the SIDC produces daily forecasts of flaring probability, geomagnetic activity and 10.7 cm radio flux. The accuracy of these forecasts will be investigated through an in-depth quality analysis.

  11. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til


    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  12. Winter honey bee colony losses, Varroa destructor control strategies, and the role of weather conditions: Results from a survey among beekeepers. (United States)

    Beyer, Marco; Junk, Jürgen; Eickermann, Michael; Clermont, Antoine; Kraus, François; Georges, Carlo; Reichart, Andreas; Hoffmann, Lucien


    Sets of treatments that were applied against varroa mites in the Luxembourgish beekeeper community were surveyed annually with a questionnaire between the winters 2010/11 and 2014/15. The average temperature and the precipitation sum of the month, when the respective varroa control method was applied were considered as co-variables when evaluating the efficacy of varroa control regimes. Success or failure of control regimes was evaluated based on the percentage of colonies lost per apiary in the winter following the treatment(s). Neither a positive nor a negative effect of formic acid (concentration 60%, w/v) on the colony losses could be found, irrespective of the weather conditions around the time of application. The higher concentration of 85% formic acid was linked with reduced colony losses when applications were done in August. Colony losses were reduced when Thymovar was applied in July or August, but applications in September were associated with increased losses compared with apiaries not treated with Thymovar during the same period. Apilife application in July as well as Apivar applications between July and September were associated with reduced colony losses. The removal of the drone brood and trickled oxalic acid application had beneficial effects when being done in April and December, respectively. Relatively warm (3.0±1.3°C) and wet (507.0±38.6mm/2months) conditions during the winter months December and January and relatively cool (17.2±1.4°C average monthly temperature) and wet (110.8±55.5mm/month) conditions in July were associated with elevated honey bee colony losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank


    Thorsrud, Leif Anders


    The agents in the economy use a plethora of high frequency information, including news media, to guide their actions and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively little degree made use of such information. In this paper, I show how unstructured textual information in a business newspaper can be decomposed into daily news topics and used to nowcast quarterly GDP growth. Compared with a big bank of experts, here represented by o cial c...

  14. Improving quantitative precipitation nowcasting with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter radar data assimilation system: observing system simulation experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chien Tsai


    Full Text Available This study develops a Doppler radar data assimilation system, which couples the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The benefits of this system to quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN are evaluated with observing system simulation experiments on Typhoon Morakot (2009, which brought record-breaking rainfall and extensive damage to central and southern Taiwan. The results indicate that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity observations improves the three-dimensional winds and rain-mixing ratio most significantly because of the direct relations in the observation operator. The patterns of spiral rainbands become more consistent between different ensemble members after radar data assimilation. The rainfall intensity and distribution during the 6-hour deterministic nowcast are also improved, especially for the first 3 hours. The nowcasts with and without radar data assimilation have similar evolution trends driven by synoptic-scale conditions. Furthermore, we carry out a series of sensitivity experiments to develop proper assimilation strategies, in which a mixed localisation method is proposed for the first time and found to give further QPN improvement in this typhoon case.

  15. Cold-Weather Sports (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  16. Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc


    Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

  17. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez


    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  18. Tools for PV (photovoltaic) plant operators: Nowcasting of passing clouds

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.; Brabec, Marek


    Roč. 54, č. 1 (2013), s. 104-112 ISSN 0360-5442 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : PV (photovoltaic) plants * Sunshine number * Nowcasting * ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ) modeling Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 4.159, year: 2013

  19. An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability (United States)

    Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey; Chronis, Themis


    Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

  20. Probabilistic hydrological nowcasting using radar based nowcasting techniques and distributed hydrological models: application in the Mediterranean area (United States)

    Poletti, Maria Laura; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola; Silvestro, Francesco


    The exposure of the urban areas to flash-floods is particularly significant to Mediterranean coastal cities, generally densely-inhabited. Severe rainfall events often associated to intense and organized thunderstorms produced, during the last century, flash-floods and landslides causing serious damages to urban areas and in the worst events led to human losses. The temporal scale of these events has been observed strictly linked to the size of the catchments involved: in the Mediterranean area a great number of catchments that pass through coastal cities have a small drainage area (less than 100 km2) and a corresponding hydrologic response timescale in the order of a few hours. A suitable nowcasting chain is essential for the on time forecast of this kind of events. In fact meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation at the scale of these events, small both at spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. Nowcasting models, covering the time interval of the following two hours starting from the observation try to extend the predictability limits of the forecasting models in support of real-time flood alert system operations. This work aims to present the use of hydrological models coupled with nowcasting techniques. The nowcasting model PhaSt furnishes an ensemble of equi-probable future precipitation scenarios on time horizons of 1-3 h starting from the most recent radar observations. The coupling of the nowcasting model PhaSt with the hydrological model Continuum allows to forecast the flood with a few hours in advance. In this way it is possible to generate different discharge prediction for the following hours and associated return period maps: these maps can be used as a support in the decisional process for the warning system.

  1. Very-short range forecasting system for 2018 Pyeonchang Winter Olympic and Paralympic games (United States)

    Nam, Ji-Eun; Park, Kyungjeen; Kim, Minyou; Kim, Changhwan; Joo, Sangwon


    The 23rd Olympic Winter and the 13th Paralympic Winter Games will be held in Pyeongchang, Republic of Korea respectively from 9 to 25 February 2018 and from 9 to 18 February 2018. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the National Institute for Meteorological Science (NIMS) have the responsibility to provide weather information for the management of the Games and the safety of the public. NIMS will carry out a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) and a Research and Development Project (RDP) which will be called ICE-POP 2018. These projects will focus on intensive observation campaigns to understand severe winter weathers over the Pyeongchang region, and the research results from the RDP will be used to improve the accuracy of nowcasting and very short-range forecast systems during the Games. To support these projects, NIMS developed Very-short range Data Assimilation and Prediction System (VDAPS), which is run in real time with 1 hour cycling interval and up to 12 hour forecasts. The domain is covering Korean Peninsular and surrounding seas with 1.5km horizontal resolution. AWS, windprofiler, buoy, sonde, aircraft, scatwinds, and radar radial winds are assimilated by 3DVAR on 3km resolution inner domain. The rain rate is converted into latent heat and initialized via nudging. The visibility data are also assimilated with the addition of aerosol control variable. The experiments results show the improvement in rainfall over south sea of Korean peninsula. In order to reduce excessive rainfalls during first 2 hours due to the reduced cycling interval, the data assimilation algorithm is optimized.

  2. 3D soil water nowcasting using electromagnetic conductivity imaging and the ensemble Kalman filter (United States)

    Huang, Jingyi; McBratney, Alex B.; Minasny, Budiman; Triantafilis, John


    Mapping and immediate forecasting of soil water content (θ) and its movement can be challenging. Although inversion of apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) measured by electromagnetic induction to calculate depth-specific electrical conductivity (σ) has been used, it is difficult to apply it across a field. In this paper we use a calibration established along a transect, across a 3.94-ha field with varying soil texture, using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to monitor and nowcast the 3-dimensional θ dynamics on 16 separate days over a period of 38 days. The EnKF combined a physical model fitted with θ measured by soil moisture sensors and an Artificial Neural Network model comprising σ generated by quasi-3d inversions of DUALEM-421S ECa data. Results showed that the distribution of θ was controlled by soil texture, topography, and vegetation. Soil water dried fastest at the beginning after the initial irrigation event and decreased with time and soil depth, which was consistent with classical soil drying theory and experiments. It was also found that the soil dried fastest in the loamy and duplex soils present in the field, which was attributable to deep drainage and preferential flow. It was concluded that the EnKF approach can be used to improve the irrigation efficiency by applying variable irrigation rates across the field. In addition, soil water status can be nowcasted across large spatial extents using this method with weather forecast information, which will provide guidance to farmers for real-time irrigation management.

  3. Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai


    A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

  4. Nowcasting of 1-h precipitation using radar and NWP data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk


    Roč. 328, 1-2 (2006), s. 200-211 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/04/0114; GA AV ČR IBS3042101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * Regression models * Nowcasting * Radar Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.117, year: 2006

  5. Tools for PV (photovoltaic) plant operators: Nowcasting of passing clouds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel; Brabec, Marek


    The response time of a PV (photovoltaic) plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. The sunshine number (SSN) is a Boolean quantity stating whether the sun is covered by clouds or not, thus being an appropriate parameter to predict the occurrence of direct solar radiation at ground level. Various ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models for SSN nowcasting are inferred and discussed in this paper. Actinometric and meteorological data measured at 15 s lag during June 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used. The forecasting accuracy is studied as a function of season, of the procedure used to obtain a binary time series and of the type of white noise distribution, respectively. It is demonstrated that the ARIMA(0,1,0) model forecasts SSN with the same accuracy as higher order ARIMA models. The forecasting accuracy decreases when the instability of the radiative regime increases. - Highlights: • Nowcasting of passing clouds is modeled by using a 15 s lag database. • ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) (0,1,0) model is mostly recommended for nowcasting of passing clouds. • Models accuracy increases by increasing the radiative regime stability

  6. Thunderstorm nowcasting by means of lightning and radar data: algorithms and applications in northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bonelli


    Full Text Available Thunderstorms and their ground effects, such as flash floods, hail, lightning, strong winds, and tornadoes, are responsible for most weather damages in northern Italy, especially in the warm season from May to September. A nowcasting and warning system focused on severe thunderstorm events would be useful to reduce risks for people involved in outside activities and for electric, telecommunication, and sensitive industrial business. C-band radar and Lighting Location Systems provide useful, fast and high resolution data for the detection of convective systems and for following their dynamics. The whole of northern Italy is covered by radar with a resolution of 1 km and by a lightning network with a mean accuracy of 0.5 km on the single point of impact. The authors present an algorithm developed for tracking high intensity storm cells by means of radar and lightning data. Application to northern Italy reveals that tracking thunderstorm cells can be used as an alert system that may help prevent damages from extreme weather, as well as allowing for studying the correlation among lightning, rainfall and tornado occurrence. Assessing the algorithm skill is also discussed, and a forecast verification method is described and applied for the duration of a thunderstorm season.

  7. Nowcasting the lightning activity in Peninsular Malaysia using the GPS PWV during the 2009 inter-monsoons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayan Suparta


    Full Text Available The spatial and temporal radio wave delay of the Global Positioning System (GPS signal can be manipulated to estimate the precipitable water vapor (PWV which favorable for meteorological applications. A rapid change of the water vapor amount was a precondition for the unbalanced atmospheric charges, which noticeably associated with the development of convective cloud as a lightning chamber. According to this fact, GPS derived PWV will be utilized to nowcasting the lightning event for the next couple of hours. The variances of PWV of four-selected station of the Peninsular Malaysia during the past two inter-monsoons events in May and November 2009 were analyzed. To clarify the response, the changes of PWV in hourly Δ (max-min before the lightning event was investigated with minimum value 2 mm and is maintained at least three consecutive hours. There are 177 samples were extracted from this method and 69% of the sample showed the lightning occurrence with an average duration was after the six consecutive hours. The lightning day with 2 mm Δ was also higher than the fair weather of 6.3%. These findings suggest that the GPS data can be proposed further as a guide to nowcast the occurrence of lightning activity.

  8. A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather (United States)

    Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu


    In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

  9. Irrigation as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: The Relative Influence of Groundwater and Canal Irrigation on Winter Crop Production and its Sensitivity to Weather Variability in India (United States)

    Jain, M.; Fishman, R.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; Naeem, S.; Modi, V.; DeFries, R. S.


    India is a hotspot for food security issues over the upcoming decades, due to increasing population pressures, groundwater depletion, and climate change. Investing in additional irrigation infrastructure may bolster food security, however, the relative influence of different types of irrigation (e.g. groundwater versus canal) on agricultural production remains unclear. One reason that the relative impact of different irrigation strategies on agricultural production has not been analyzed across India is because national-scale data on crop production and the types of irrigation technologies used are typically available at too coarse of spatial and temporal resolutions to answer this question adequately. Thus, we develop a novel algorithm to map cropped area across India at a 1 x 1 km scale using MODIS satellite data, and link these high-resolution cropped area maps with village-level data (n = 600,000) on irrigation. This allowed us to assess the relative impact of groundwater (i.e. dug, shallow, and deep wells) and canal irrigation (i.e. surface lift and flow canals) on winter cropped area and its sensitivity to rainfall across India at the village-scale from 2000 to 2006. We find that deep well irrigation is both associated with the greatest amount of winter cropped area, and is also the least sensitive to monsoon and winter rainfall variability. However, the effectiveness of deep well irrigation varies across India, with the greatest benefits seen in the regions that are most at risk for losing groundwater as a possible source of irrigation over the upcoming decades (e.g. Northwest India). This work highlights the need to develop ways to use remaining groundwater more efficiently (e.g. drip irrigation, less water-intensive crops) given that canal irrigation is not an adequate substitute, particularly in the regions that are facing the greatest levels of groundwater depletion.

  10. K-type geomagnetic index nowcast with data quality control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Warnant


    Full Text Available

    A nowcast system for operational estimation of a proxy K-type geomagnetic index is presented. The system is based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition that includes screening of the dataset and removal of the outliers, estimation of the solar regular variation (SR of the geomagnetic field, calculation of the index, and issuing of an alert if storm-level activity is indicated. This is a time-controlled (rather than event-driven system that delivers the regular output of: the index value, the estimated quality flag, and eventually, an alert. The novel features provided are first, the strict control of the data input and processing, and second, the increased frequency of production of the index (every 1 h. Such quality control and increased time resolution have been found to be of crucial importance for various applications, e.g. ionospheric monitoring, that are of particular interest to us and to users of our service. The nowcast system operability, accuracy and precision have been tested with instantaneous measurements from recent years. A statistical comparison between the nowcast and the definitive index values shows that the average root-mean-square error is smaller than 1 KU. The system is now operational at the site of the Geophysical Centre of the Royal Meteorological Institute in Dourbes (50.1ºN, 4.6ºE, and it is being used for alerting users when geomagnetic storms take place.

  11. Comparison of radar and numerical weather model rainfall forecasts in the perspective of urban flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lovring, Maite Monica; Löwe, Roland; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas

    An early flood warning system has been developed for urban catchments and is currently running in online operation in Copenhagen. The system is highly dependent on the quality of rainfall forecast inputs. An investigation of precipitation inputs from Radar Nowcast (RN), Numerical Weather Prediction...

  12. Nowcasting of rainfall and of combined sewage flow in urban drainage systems. (United States)

    Achleitner, Stefan; Fach, Stefan; Einfalt, Thomas; Rauch, Wolfgang


    Nowcasting of rainfall may be used additionally to online rain measurements to optimize the operation of urban drainage systems. Uncertainties quoted for the rain volume are in the range of 5% to 10% mean square error (MSE), where for rain intensities 45% to 75% MSE are noted. For larger forecast periods up to 3 hours, the uncertainties will increase up to some hundred percents. Combined with the growing number of real time control concepts in sewer systems, rainfall forecast is used more and more in urban drainage systems. Therefore it is of interest how the uncertainties influence the final evaluation of a defined objective function. Uncertainty levels associated with the forecast itself are not necessarily transferable to resulting uncertainties in the catchment's flow dynamics. The aim of this paper is to analyse forecasts of rainfall and specific sewer output variables. For this study the combined sewer system of the city of Linz in the northern part of Austria located on the Danube has been selected. The city itself represents a total area of 96 km2 with 39 municipalities connected. It was found that the available weather radar data leads to large deviations in the forecast for precipitation at forecast horizons larger than 90 minutes. The same is true for sewer variables such a CSO overflow for small sub-catchments. Although the results improve for larger spatial scales, acceptable levels at forecast horizons larger than 90 minutes are not reached.

  13. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  14. Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018 (United States)

    Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Iguchi, Takamichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Molthan, Andrew


    The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment -PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

  15. Statistically extrapolated nowcasting of summertime precipitation over the Eastern Alps (United States)

    Chen, Min; Bica, Benedikt; Tüchler, Lukas; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong


    This paper presents a new multiple linear regression (MLR) approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) system for the Eastern Alps. The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples, and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach, based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.

  16. Nowcasting of Lightning-Related Accidents in Africa (United States)

    Ihrlich, Laura; Price, Colin


    Tropical Africa is the world capital of thunderstorm activity with the highest density of strikes per square kilometer per year. As a result it is also the continent with perhaps the highest casualties and injuries from direct lightning strikes. This region of the globe also has little lightning protection of rural homes and schools, while many casualties occur during outdoor activities (e.g. farming, fishing, sports, etc.) In this study we investigated two lightning-caused accidents that got wide press coverage: A lightning strike to a Cheetah Center in Namibia which caused a huge fire and great destruction (16 October 2013), and a plane crash in Mali where 116 people died (24 July 2014). Using data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) we show that the lightning data alone can provide important early warning information that can be used to reduce risks and damages and loss of life from lightning strikes. We have developed a now-casting scheme that allows for early warnings across Africa with a relatively low false alarm rate. To verify the accuracy of our now-cast, we have performed some statistical analysis showing relatively high skill at providing early warnings (lead time of a few hours) based on lightning alone. Furthermore, our analysis can be used in forensic meteorology for determining if such accidents are caused by lightning strikes.

  17. Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather (United States)

    MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.


    Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

  18. A framework for probabilistic pluvial flood nowcasting for urban areas (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Murla, Damian; Wang, Lipen; Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent; Van Herk, Kristine; Van Ootegem, Luc; Willems, Patrick


    Pluvial flood nowcasting is gaining ground not least because of the advancements in rainfall forecasting schemes. Short-term forecasts and applications have benefited from the availability of such forecasts with high resolution in space (~1km) and time (~5min). In this regard, it is vital to evaluate the potential of nowcasting products for urban inundation applications. One of the most advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) techniques is the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System, which was originally co-developed by the UK Met Office and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The scheme was further tuned to better estimate extreme and moderate events for the Belgian area (STEPS-BE). Against this backdrop, a probabilistic framework has been developed that consists of: (1) rainfall nowcasts; (2) sewer hydraulic model; (3) flood damage estimation; and (4) urban inundation risk mapping. STEPS-BE forecasts are provided at high resolution (1km/5min) with 20 ensemble members with a lead time of up to 2 hours using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. Forecasts' verification was performed over the cities of Leuven and Ghent and biases were found to be small. The hydraulic model consists of the 1D sewer network and an innovative 'nested' 2D surface model to model 2D urban surface inundations at high resolution. The surface components are categorized into three groups and each group is modelled using triangular meshes at different resolutions; these include streets (3.75 - 15 m2), high flood hazard areas (12.5 - 50 m2) and low flood hazard areas (75 - 300 m2). Functions describing urban flood damage and social consequences were empirically derived based on questionnaires to people in the region that were recently affected by sewer floods. Probabilistic urban flood risk maps were prepared based on spatial interpolation techniques of flood inundation. The method has been implemented and tested for the villages Oostakker and Sint-Amandsberg, which are part of the

  19. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  20. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  1. A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System (United States)

    Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan


    Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is

  2. Nowcasting influenza outbreaks using open-source media report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Brownstein, John S. [Boston Children%3CU%2B2019%3Es Hospital, Boston, MA


    We construct and verify a statistical method to nowcast influenza activity from a time-series of the frequency of reports concerning influenza related topics. Such reports are published electronically by both public health organizations as well as newspapers/media sources, and thus can be harvested easily via web crawlers. Since media reports are timely, whereas reports from public health organization are delayed by at least two weeks, using timely, open-source data to compensate for the lag in %E2%80%9Cofficial%E2%80%9D reports can be useful. We use morbidity data from networks of sentinel physicians (both the Center of Disease Control's ILINet and France's Sentinelles network) as the gold standard of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity. The time-series of media reports is obtained from HealthMap ( We find that the time-series of media reports shows some correlation ( 0.5) with ILI activity; further, this can be leveraged into an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARMAX model) to nowcast ILI activity. We find that the ARMAX models have more predictive skill compared to autoregressive (AR) models fitted to ILI data i.e., it is possible to exploit the information content in the open-source data. We also find that when the open-source data are non-informative, the ARMAX models reproduce the performance of AR models. The statistical models are tested on data from the 2009 swine-flu outbreak as well as the mild 2011-2012 influenza season in the U.S.A.

  3. An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas (United States)

    Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.


    An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

  4. Advanced decision support for winter road maintenance (United States)


    This document provides an overview of the Federal Highway Administration's winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS is a decision support tool that has the ability to provide weather predictions focused toward the road surface. The...

  5. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.


    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  6. Development of a Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast Capability for the U.S. Army IMETS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henmi, Teizi; Dumais, Robert; Okrasinski, Richard


    ...) forecast, surface, and upper-air sounding data, are used for the computation. Three-dimensional distributions of temperature, dew-point temperature, and horizontal wind vector components can be forecasted...

  7. Domain-Level Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WREN) Model (United States)


    Oceans, and Land Surface; 2016 Sep 1; Atlanta (GA): American Meteorological Society [accessed 2016 Aug 2]. De Pondeca MSFV, Manikin GS, DiMego G...Dudhia J, Hacker J, Bruyere C, Wu W, Vandenberghe F, Liu Y, Bourgeois A. Update on the WRF-ARW end-to-end multi-scale FDDA system. Paper presented...Kain JS. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J App Meteo. 2004;43:170–181. Liu Y, Bourgeois A, Warner T, Swerdlin S, Hacker J

  8. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy


    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  9. How to Have a Healthy Winter | Poster (United States)

    Without a doubt, winter is here. Between the icy weather and the recent hustle and bustle of the holidays, everyone is at an increased risk of getting sick. With that in mind, Occupational Health Services has a few simple tips for staying healthy this winter.

  10. Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season (United States)

    Kneringer, Philipp; Dietz, Sebastian J.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim


    Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories helps decision makers to optimally schedule their operations. An ordered logistic regression (OLR) model is used to forecast these probabilities directly. It is applied to cold season forecasts at Vienna International Airport for lead times of 30-min out to 2 h. Model inputs are standard meteorological measurements. The skill of the forecasts is accessed by the ranked probability score. OLR outperforms persistence, which is a strong contender at the shortest lead times. The ranked probability score of the OLR is even better than the one of nowcasts from human forecasters. The OLR-based nowcasting system is computationally fast and can be updated instantaneously when new data become available.

  11. Broadcast media and the dissemination of weather information (United States)

    Byrnes, J.


    Although television is the public's most preferred source of weather information, it fails to provide weather reports to those groups who seek the information early in the day and during the day. The result is that many people most often use radio as a source of information, yet preferring the medium of television. The public actively seeks weather information from both radio and TV stations, usually seeking information on current conditions and short range forecasts. forecasts. Nearly all broadcast stations surveyed were eager to air severe weather bulletins quickly and often. Interest in Nowcasting was high among radio and TV broadcasters, with a significant portion indicating a willingness to pay something for the service. However, interest among TV stations in increasing the number of daily reports was small.

  12. Space Weather opportunities from the Swarm mission including near real time applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolle, Claudia; Floberghagen, Rune; Luehr, Hermann


    Sophisticated space weather monitoring aims at nowcasting and predicting solar-terrestrial interactions because their effects on the ionosphere and upper atmosphere may seriously impact advanced technology. Operating alert infrastructures rely heavily on ground-based measurements and satellite...... these products in timely manner will add significant value in monitoring present space weather and helping to predict the evolution of several magnetic and ionospheric events. Swarm will be a demonstrator mission for the valuable application of LEO satellite observations for space weather monitoring tools....

  13. Nowcast of thunderstorm and typhoon activity based on lightning detection and flexible operation of micro-satellites (United States)

    Takahashi, Y.


    It has become known that lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, namely, the intensity and area of precipitation and/or updraft. Thunderstorm is also important as a proxy of the energy input from ocean to atmosphere in typhoon, meaning that if we could monitor the thunderstorm with lightning we could predict the maximum wind velocity near the typhoon center by one or two days before. Constructing ELF and VLF radio wave observation network in Southeast Asia (AVON) and a regional dense network of automated weather station in a big city, we plan to establish the monitoring system for thunderstorm development in western pacific warm pool (WPWP) where typhoon is formed and in detail in big city area. On the other hand, some developing countries in SE-Asia are going to own micro-satellites dedicated to meteorological remote sensing. Making use of the lightning activity data measured by the ground-based networks, and information on 3-D structures of thunderclouds observed by the flexible on-demand operation of the remote-sensing micro-satellites, we would establish a new methodology to obtain very detail semi-real time information that cannot be achieved only with existing observation facilities, such as meteorological radar or large meteorological satellite. Using this new system we try to issue nowcast for the local thunderstorm and for typhoons. The first attempt will be carried out in Metro Manila in Philippines and WPWP as one of the SATREPS projects.

  14. Winter Wonderlands (United States)

    Coy, Mary


    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  15. An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability (United States)

    Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey


    Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al

  16. Weather Support for the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Ma


    Full Text Available The Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Competitions (referred to as OPSC hereafter were held at Qingdao during August 9–23 and September 7–13 2008, respectively. The Qingdao Meteorological Bureau was the official provider of weather support for the OPSC. Three-dimensional real-time information with high spatial-temporal resolution was obtained by the comprehensive observation system during the OPSC, which included weather radars, wind profile radars, buoys, automated weather stations, and other conventional observations. The refined forecasting system based on MM5, WRF, and statistical modules provided point-specific hourly wind forecasts for the five venues, and the severe weather monitoring and forecasting system was used in short-term forecasts and nowcasts for rainstorms, gales, and hailstones. Moreover, latest forecasting products, warnings, and weather information were communicated conveniently and timely through a synthetic, speedy, and digitalized network system to different customers. Daily weather information briefings, notice boards, websites, and community short messages were the main approaches for regatta organizers, athletes, and coaches to receive weather service products at 8:00 PM of each day and whenever new updates were available. During the period of OPSC, almost one hundred people were involved in the weather service with innovative service concept, and the weather support was found to be successful and helpful to the OPSC.

  17. AGA predicts winter jump in residential gas price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    The American Gas Association predicts the average heating bill for residential gas consumers could increase by as much as 18% this winter. AGA Pres. Mike Baly said, Last year's winter was warmer than normal. If the 1992-93 winter is similar, AGA projects that residential natural gas heating bills will go up about 6%. If we see a return to normal winter weather, our projection show the average bill could rise by almost 18%

  18. A combined road weather forecast system to prevent road ice formation in the Adige Valley (Italy) (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Piazza, Andrea; Antonacci, Gianluca; Todeschini, Ilaria; Apolloni, Roberto; Pretto, Ilaria


    Road ice is a dangerous meteorological hazard to a nation's transportation system and economy. By reducing the pavement friction with vehicle tyres, ice formation on pavements increases accident risk and delays travelling times thus posing a serious threat to road users' safety and the running of economic activities. Keeping roads clear and open is therefore essential, especially in mountainous areas where ice is likely to form during the winter period. Winter road maintenance helps to restore road efficiency and security, and its benefits are up to 8 times the costs sustained for anti-icing strategies [1]. However, the optimization of maintenance costs and the reduction of the environmental damage from over-salting demand further improvements. These can be achieved by reliable road weather forecasts, and in particular by the prediction of road surface temperatures (RSTs). RST is one of the most important parameters in determining road surface conditions. It is well known from literature that ice forms on pavements in high-humidity conditions when RSTs are below 0°C. We have therefore implemented an automatic forecast system to predict critical RSTs on a test route along the Adige Valley complex terrain, in the Italian Alps. The system considers two physical models, each computing heat and energy fluxes between the road and the atmosphere. One is Reuter's radiative cooling model, which predicts RSTs at sunrise as a function of surface temperatures at sunset and the time passed since then [2]. One is METRo (Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads), a road weather forecast software which also considers heat conduction through road material [3]. We have applied the forecast system to a network of road weather stations (road weather information system, RWIS) installed on the test route [4]. Road and atmospheric observations from RWIS have been used as initial conditions for both METRo and Reuter's model. In METRo observations have also been coupled to

  19. Monitoring water phase dynamics in winter clouds (United States)

    Campos, Edwin F.; Ware, Randolph; Joe, Paul; Hudak, David


    This work presents observations of water phase dynamics that demonstrate the theoretical Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen concepts in mixed-phase winter storms. The work analyzes vertical profiles of air vapor pressure, and equilibrium vapor pressure over liquid water and ice. Based only on the magnitude ranking of these vapor pressures, we identified conditions where liquid droplets and ice particles grow or deplete simultaneously, as well as the conditions where droplets evaporate and ice particles grow by vapor diffusion. The method is applied to ground-based remote-sensing observations during two snowstorms, using two distinct microwave profiling radiometers operating in different climatic regions (North American Central High Plains and Great Lakes). The results are compared with independent microwave radiometer retrievals of vertically integrated liquid water, cloud-base estimates from a co-located ceilometer, reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity observations by nearby vertically pointing radars, and radiometer estimates of liquid water layers aloft. This work thus makes a positive contribution toward monitoring and nowcasting the evolution of supercooled droplets in winter clouds.

  20. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick


    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  1. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick


    estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...... applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value......Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...

  2. Payment mechanisms for winter road maintenance services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Abdi


    Full Text Available In countries with severe winters a major part of the annual budget for road maintenance is allocated on performance of winter road maintenance tasks. Finding appropriate remuneration forms to compensate entrepreneurs for performed road measures during winter is not an easy task in order to minimise or eliminate disputes and satisfy both client organisations and contractors. On the other hand improper reimbursement models lead either to the client’s annual budget imbalance due to unnecessary cost overruns or affect contractor’s cash-flow. Such cases in turn affect just-in-time winter road maintenance and then traffic safety. To solve such problems, a number of countries in cold regions like Sweden have developed different remuneration models based more on weather data called Weather Index. Therefore the objective of this paper is to investigate and evaluate the payment models applied in Sweden. The study uses a number of approaches namely; domestic questionnaire survey, analysis of a number of contract documents, a series of meetings with the project managers and an international benchmarking. The study recognised four remuneration models for winter maintenance service of which one based on weather data statistics. The study reveals the payment model based on weather data statistics is only applied for the roads with higher traffic flow and the model generates most uncertainty.

  3. Nowcasting and forecasting of the magnetopause and bow shock—A status update (United States)

    Petrinec, S. M.; Redmon, R. J.; Rastaetter, L.


    There has long been interest in knowing the shape and location of the Earth's magnetopause and of the standing fast-mode bow shock upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. This quest for knowledge spans both the research and operations arenas. Pertinent to the latter, nowcasting and near-term forecasting are important for determining the extent to which the magnetosphere is compressed or expanded due to the influence of the solar wind bulk plasma and fields and the coupling to other magnetosphere-ionosphere processes with possible effects on assets. This article provides an update to a previous article on the same topic published 15 years earlier, with focus on studies that have been conducted, the current status of nowcasting and forecasting of geophysical boundaries, and future endeavors.

  4. Application of the Fractions Skill Score for Tracking the Effectiveness of Improvements Made to Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulations (United States)


    Sciences Directorate ATTN: RDRL-CIE-M White Sands Missile Range, NM 88002 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER ARL-TR-8217 9. SPONSORING...assessment of the weather running estimate−nowcast (WRE−N). White Sands Missile Range (NM): Army Research Laboratory (US); 2016 Aug. Report No.: ARL-TR...observations into the model so that forecast quality is improved (Stauffer and Seaman 1994; Deng et al. 2009). The US Army Research Laboratory (ARL

  5. Wacky Weather (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline


    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  6. Weather Instruments. (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina


    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  8. CLEAN-ROADS project: air quality considerations after the application of a novel MDSS on winter road maintenance activities (United States)

    Pretto, Ilaria; Malloci, Elisa; Tonidandel, Gabriele; Benedetti, Guido; Di Napoli, Claudia; Piazza, Andrea; Apolloni, Roberto; Cavaliere, Roberto


    With this poster we present the environmental benefit on air quality derived by the application of the CLEAN-ROADS pilot project. The CLEAN-ROADS project addresses the problem of the environmental pollution caused by de-icing salts during winter road maintenance activities in the Province of Trento (Italy). A demonstrative Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) has been developed in order to improve the intervention procedures of the road management service. Specifically it aims to optimize the efficiency of how available resources (e.g., salt consumption) are currently used while guaranteeing the current level of road safety. The CLEAN-ROADS project has been tested and validated on a test area located in a valley bottom (Adige Valley), where the highest optimization margins are to be expected. The project supports current road maintenance practices, which has proved to be reliable and accurate, with a new scalable and energy-efficient road monitoring system. This system is based on a network of road weather stations (road weather information system, RWIS) installed on the test route. It is capable to collect real-time data about the road conditions and to perform short-term and now-cast road weather forecasts, which actively integrate weather data and bulletins covering the target area [1]. This poster presents the results obtained from a three-year monitoring activity with the aim to (1) determine the impact of de-icing salts on air quality and (2) quantify the improvements obtained by the application of the CLEAN-ROADS project on air quality. The Ambient Air Quality and Cleaner Air for Europe Directive (2008/50/EC) states that contributions to exceedances of particulate matter PM10 limit values that are attributable to road winter salting may be subtracted when assessing compliance with air quality limit values, once provided that reasonable measures have been taken to lower concentrations [2]. As the de-icing salts used in road maintenance are mainly based

  9. Use of predictive models and rapid methods to nowcast bacteria levels at coastal beaches (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.


    The need for rapid assessments of recreational water quality to better protect public health is well accepted throughout the research and regulatory communities. Rapid analytical methods, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunomagnetic separation/adenosine triphosphate (ATP) analysis, are being tested but are not yet ready for widespread use.Another solution is the use of predictive models, wherein variable(s) that are easily and quickly measured are surrogates for concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria. Rainfall-based alerts, the simplest type of model, have been used by several communities for a number of years. Deterministic models use mathematical representations of the processes that affect bacteria concentrations; this type of model is being used for beach-closure decisions at one location in the USA. Multivariable statistical models are being developed and tested in many areas of the USA; however, they are only used in three areas of the Great Lakes to aid in notifications of beach advisories or closings. These “operational” statistical models can result in more accurate assessments of recreational water quality than use of the previous day's Escherichia coli (E. coli)concentration as determined by traditional culture methods. The Ohio Nowcast, at Huntington Beach, Bay Village, Ohio, is described in this paper as an example of an operational statistical model. Because predictive modeling is a dynamic process, water-resource managers continue to collect additional data to improve the predictive ability of the nowcast and expand the nowcast to other Ohio beaches and a recreational river. Although predictive models have been shown to work well at some beaches and are becoming more widely accepted, implementation in many areas is limited by funding, lack of coordinated technical leadership, and lack of supporting epidemiological data.

  10. Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries (United States)

    Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav


    The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed. PMID:26001083

  11. Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US Using Online Search Data (United States)

    Fantazzini, Dean


    We propose the use of Google online search data for nowcasting and forecasting the number of food stamps recipients. We perform a large out-of-sample forecasting exercise with almost 3000 competing models with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead, and we show that models including Google search data statistically outperform the competing models at all considered horizons. These results hold also with several robustness checks, considering alternative keywords, a falsification test, different out-of-samples, directional accuracy and forecasts at the state-level. PMID:25369315

  12. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P


    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  13. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  14. Barriers to wheelchair use in the winter. (United States)

    Ripat, Jacquie D; Brown, Cara L; Ethans, Karen D


    To test the hypothesis that challenges to community participation posed by winter weather are greater for individuals who use scooters, manual and power wheelchairs (wheeled mobility devices [WMDs]) than for the general ambulatory population, and to determine what WMD users identify as the most salient environmental barriers to community participation during the winter. Cross-sectional survey organized around 5 environmental domains: technological, natural, physical, social/attitudinal, and policy. Urban community in Canada. Convenience sample of WMD users or their proxy (N=99). Not applicable. Not applicable. Forty-two percent identified reduced outing frequency in winter months, associated with increased age (χ(3)=6.4, P=.04), lack of access to family/friends for transportation (χ(2)=8.1, P=.04), and primary type of WMD used in the winter (scooter χ(2)=8.8, P=.003). Most reported tires/casters becoming stuck in the snow (95%) or slipping on the ice (91%), difficulty ascending inclines/ramps (92%), and cold hands while using controls or pushing rims (85%); fewer identified frozen wheelchair/scooter batteries, seat cushions/backrests, or electronics. Sidewalks/roads were reported to be problematic by 99%. Eighty percent reported needing additional help in the winter. Limited community access in winter led to a sense of loneliness/isolation, and fear/anxiety related to safety. Respondents identified policies that limited participation during winter. People who use WMDs decrease their community participation in cold weather because of multiple environmental barriers. Clinicians, researchers, and policymakers can take a multidimensional approach to mitigate these barriers in order to enhance community participation by WMD users in winter. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project (United States)

    Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

    The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project ( is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

  16. Operational verification of a framework for the probabilistic nowcasting of river discharge in small and medium size basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Silvestro


    Full Text Available Forecasting river discharge is a very important issue for the prediction and monitoring of ground effects related to severe precipitation events. The meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation on small spatial (few km and temporal (hourly scales. For these reasons the issuing of reliable flood forecasts is not feasible in those regions where the basin's response to rainfall events is very fast and can generate flash floods. This problem can be tackled by using rainfall nowcasting techniques based on radar observations coupled with hydrological modeling. These procedures allow the forecasting of future streamflow with a few hours' notice. However, to account for the short-term uncertainties in the evolution of fine scale precipitation field, a probabilistic approach to rainfall nowcasting is needed. These uncertainties are then propagated from rainfall to runoff through a distributed hydrological model producing a set of equi-probable discharge scenarios to be used for the flood nowcasting with time horizons of a few hours. Such a hydrological nowcasting system is presented here and applied to some case studies. A first evaluation of its applicability in an operational context is provided and the opportunity of using the results quantitatively is discussed.

  17. Application of a Fuzzy Verification Technique for Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Model (United States)


    Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; 2016 Sep 1; Atlanta (GA): American Meteorological Society [accessed 2016 Aug 2]. D, Gaudet B, Dudhia J, Hacker J, Bruyere C, Wu W, Vandenberghe F, Liu Y, Bourgeois A. Update on the WRF-ARW end-to-end multi-scale FDDA...convective parameterization: an update. J App Meteo. 2004;43:170–181. Liu Y, Bourgeois A, Warner T, Swerdlin S, Hacker J. Implementation of observation

  18. Verification of Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Forecasts Using a Spatial-Categorical Method (United States)


    status and development. Wea Forec. 2011;26:593–612. Deng A, Stauffer D, Gaudet B, Dudhia J, Hacker J, Bruyere C, Wu W, Vandenberghe F, Liu Y, Bourgeois...A, Warner T, Swerdlin S, Hacker J. Implementation of observation-nudging based FDDA into WRF for supporting ATEC test operations. Paper presented at

  19. Winter maintenance performance measure. (United States)


    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  20. Review on the solar spectral variability in the EUV for space weather purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lilensten


    Full Text Available The solar XUV-EUV flux is the main energy source in the terrestrial diurnal thermosphere: it produces ionization, dissociation, excitation and heating. Accurate knowledge of this flux is of prime importance for space weather. We first list the space weather applications that require nowcasting and forecasting of the solar XUV-EUV flux. We then review present models and discuss how they account for the variability of the solar spectrum. We show why the measurement of the full spectrum is difficult, and why it is illusory to retrieve it from its atmospheric effects. We then address the problem of determining a set of observations that are adapted for space weather purposes, in the frame of ionospheric studies. Finally, we review the existing and future space experiments that are devoted to the observation of the solar XUV-EUV spectrum.

  1. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.


    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  2. Development of the nowcasting system for the XVII Asiad at Korea Meteorological Administration (United States)

    Park, Kyungjeen; Kim, Juwon; Jang, Taekyu; Hwang, Seung On; Park, Yunho; Kim, Yoonjae; Park, Seonjoo; Joo, Sangwon; Noh, Hae Mi


    The XVII Asiad, known as the 2014 Asian game, is the largest sporting event in Asia. It will be held in Incheon, South Korea from September 19 to October 4, with 437 events in 36 sports. To support this game, Korea Meteorological Administration developed Incheon Data Assimilation and Prediction System (IDAPS) for nowcasting and very short range forecasts. The domain is centered at Incheon city and covers the central region of the Korean peninsula and adjacent seas. It repeats analysis and forecast processes with 1 hour cycling interval. IDAPS has approximately 1 km horizontal resolution with 324 x 360 grids and 70 vertical layers. Three dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to assimilate AWS, windprofiler, buoy, sonde, aircraft, scatwinds, rain rate, and radar products. The details of IDAPS and the experiment results will be given during the conference.

  3. New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management (United States)

    Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.


    There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

  4. Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications (United States)

    Minnis, P.; Smith, W., Jr.; Bedka, K. M.; Nguyen, L.; Palikonda, R.; Hong, G.; Trepte, Q.; Chee, T.; Scarino, B. R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Fleeger, C.; Ayers, J. K.; Chang, F. L.; Heck, P. W.


    Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances provide a valuable source of information for nowcasting and weather forecasting. In recent years, it has been shown that assimilation of cloud top temperature, optical depth, and total water path can increase the accuracies of weather analyses and forecasts. Aircraft icing conditions can be accurately diagnosed in near-real time (NRT) retrievals of cloud effective particle size, phase, and water path, providing valuable data for pilots. NRT retrievals of surface skin temperature can also be assimilated in numerical weather prediction models to provide more accurate representations of solar heating and longwave cooling at the surface, where convective initiation. These and other applications are being exploited more frequently as the value of NRT cloud data become recognized. At NASA Langley, cloud properties and surface skin temperature are being retrieved in near-real time globally from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. Cloud data from GEO satellites over North America are disseminated through NCEP, while those data and global LEO and GEO retrievals are disseminated from a Langley website. This paper presents an overview of the various available datasets, provides examples of their application, and discusses the use of the various datasets downstream. Future challenges and areas of improvement are also presented.

  5. Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications (United States)

    Minnis, Patrick; Smith, William L., Jr.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Nguyen, Louis; Palikonda, Rabindra; Hong, Gang; Trepte, Qing Z.; Chee, Thad; Scarino, Benjamin; Spangenberg, Douglas A.; hide


    Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances provide a valuable source of information for nowcasting and weather forecasting. In recent years, it has been shown that assimilation of cloud top temperature, optical depth, and total water path can increase the accuracies of weather analyses and forecasts. Aircraft icing conditions can be accurately diagnosed in near-­-real time (NRT) retrievals of cloud effective particle size, phase, and water path, providing valuable data for pilots. NRT retrievals of surface skin temperature can also be assimilated in numerical weather prediction models to provide more accurate representations of solar heating and longwave cooling at the surface, where convective initiation. These and other applications are being exploited more frequently as the value of NRT cloud data become recognized. At NASA Langley, cloud properties and surface skin temperature are being retrieved in near-­-real time globally from both geostationary (GEO) and low-­-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. Cloud data from GEO satellites over North America are disseminated through NCEP, while those data and global LEO and GEO retrievals are disseminated from a Langley website. This paper presents an overview of the various available datasets, provides examples of their application, and discusses the use of the various datasets downstream. Future challenges and areas of improvement are also presented.

  6. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini


    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  7. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  8. Monthly Weather Review (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  9. Guidelines to Facilitate the Evaluation of Brines for Winter Roadway Maintenance Operations. (United States)


    This document presents guidelines to facilitate the evaluation of brines for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. Brines are used in anti-icing applications which typically consist of placing liquid snow and ice control chemicals...

  10. Severe European winters in a secular perspective (United States)

    Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie


    Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

  11. Weathering and landscape evolution (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.


    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  12. Numerical Weather Prediction and Relative Economic Value framework to improve Integrated Urban Drainage- Wastewater management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas

    domains during which the IUDWS can be coupled with the electrical smart grid to optimise its energy consumption. The REV framework was used to determine which decision threshold of the EPS (i.e. number of ensemble members predicting an event) provides the highest benefit for a given situation...... in cities where space is scarce and large-scale construction work a nuisance. This the-sis focuses on flow domain predictions of IUDWS from numerical weather prediction (NWP) to select relevant control objectives for the IUDWS and develops a framework based on the relative economic value (REV) approach...... to evaluate when acting on the forecast is beneficial or not. Rainfall forecasts are extremely valuable for estimating near future storm-water-related impacts on the IUDWS. Therefore, weather radar extrapolation “nowcasts” provide valuable predictions for RTC. However, radar nowcasts are limited...

  13. Estuary wader capacity following severe weather mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.A.; Baillie, S.R.; Clark, N.A.; Langston, R.H.W.


    The building of a tidal power barrage across an estuary may lead to substantial changes in its ecology. Many of Britain's estuaries hold internationally important numbers of waders. Careful consideration, therefore, needs to be given to the likely effects of tidal power barrages on wader populations. The opportunity for increased understanding of the mechanisms which govern wader populations was provided by a period of severe winter weather in 1991, which resulted in a substantial mortality of waders in eastern England. Such conditions are known to be stressful to birds and the study objectives were to investigate both the effects of and recovery from severe weather. (author)

  14. On the usage of divergence nudging in the DMI nowcasting system (United States)

    Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus; Hansen Sass, Bent; Woetmann Nielsen, Niels; Getreuer Jensen, David; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Vedel, Henrik


    DMI has recently proposed a new method for nudging radar reflectivity CAPPI products into their operational nowcasting system. The system is based on rapid update cycles (with hourly frequency) with the High Resolution Limited Area Model combined with surface and upper air analysis at each initial time. During the first 1.5 hours of a simulation the model dynamical state is nudged in accordance with the CAPPI product after which a free forecast is produced with a forecast length of 12 hours. The nudging method is based on the assumption that precipitation is forced by low level moisture convergence and an enhanced moisture source will lead to convective triggering of the model cloud scheme. If the model under-predicts precipitation before cut-off horizontal low level divergence is nudged towards an estimated value. These pseudo observations are calculated from the CAPPI product by assuming a specific vertical profile of the change in divergence field. The strength of the nudging is proportional to the difference between observed and modelled precipitation. When over-predicting, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values. Results have been analysed in terms of the fractions skill score and the ability of the nudging method to position the precipitation cells correctly is discussed. The ability of the model to retain memory of the precipitation systems in the free forecast has also been investigated and examples of combining the nudging method with extrapolated reflectivity fields are also shown.

  15. Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs (United States)

    Lampos, Vasileios; Miller, Andrew C.; Crossan, Steve; Stefansen, Christian


    User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.


    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    THE PERFOR]\\IANCE DURING WINTER, OF HETFERS FED GRASS SILAGE, MADE UNDER. UNFAVOURABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND E. curvula HAY, PRODUCED. FROM THE SAME SWARD. Receipt of MS: 06-10-1981. A. van Niekerk. Cedara Agriculrural Research Station, PlBag X9059, Pietermaritzburg ...

  17. Wintering Map for Honey Bee Colonies in El-Behera Governorate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The geographical information system (GIS) has been used successfully in many studies to solve apicultural problems. The winter season is considered as a challenge for honey bee colonies due to the cold weather which cause the forfeiture of many colonies. The good wintering of honey bee colonies depends mainly on ...

  18. Recent advances in sustainable winter road operations – a book proposal. (United States)


    Investing in winter transportation operations is essential and beneficial to the public and the economy. The U.S. economy cannot afford the cost of shutting down highways, airports, etc., during winter weather. In the northern U.S. and other cold-cli...

  19. Phased Array Radar Network Experiment for Severe Weather (United States)

    Ushio, T.; Kikuchi, H.; Mega, T.; Yoshikawa, E.; Mizutani, F.; Takahashi, N.


    Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR) was firstly developed in 2012 by Osaka University and Toshiba under a grant of NICT using the Digital Beamforming Technique, and showed a impressive thunderstorm behavior with 30 second resolution. After that development, second PAWR was installed in Kobe city about 60 km away from the first PAWR site, and Tokyo Metropolitan University, Osaka Univeristy, Toshiba and the Osaka Local Government started a new project to develop the Osaka Urban Demonstration Network. The main sensor of the Osaka Network is a 2-node Phased Array Radar Network and lightning location system. Data products that are created both in local high performance computer and Toshiba Computer Cloud, include single and multi-radar data, vector wind, quantitative precipitation estimation, VIL, nowcasting, lightning location and analysis. Each radar node is calibarated by the baloon measurement and through the comparison with the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)/ DPR (Dual Frequency Space borne Radar) within 1 dB. The attenuated radar reflectivities obtained by the Phased Array Radar Network at X band are corrected based on the bayesian scheme proposed in Shimamura et al. [2016]. The obtained high resolution (every 30 seconds/ 100 elevation angles) 3D reflectivity and rain rate fields are used to nowcast the surface rain rate up to 30 minutes ahead. These new products are transferred to Osaka Local Government in operational mode and evaluated by several section in Osaka Prefecture. Furthermore, a new Phased Array Radar with polarimetric function has been developed in 2017, and will be operated in the fiscal year of 2017. In this presentation, Phased Array Radar, network architecuture, processing algorithm, evalution of the social experiment and first Multi-Prameter Phased Array Radar experiment are presented.

  20. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  1. Deer Wintering Areas (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  2. A successful forecast of an El Nino winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.


    This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance

  3. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Porous Asphalt with a Focus on Winter Damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwiatkowski, Kyle; Stipanovic, Irina; Hartmann, Andreas; Ter Maat, Han


    This chapter investigates the impact and adaptation options of climate change on porous asphalt (PA) roads, specifically for the case of winter weather (freeze-thaw cycles) and road damage in the Netherlands. Changes in weather patterns pose a threat to the serviceability and long-term performance

  4. Potential impact of climate change on porous asphalt with a focus on winter damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwiatkowski, K.P.; Stipanovic Oslakovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Maat, ter H.W.


    This chapter investigates the impact and adaptation options of climate change on porous asphalt
    (PA) roads, specifically for the case of winter weather (freeze–thaw cycles) and road damage in
    the Netherlands. Changes in weather patterns pose a threat to the serviceability and

  5. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  6. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered? (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.


    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

  7. Applications of NASA TROPICS Data for Tropical Cyclone Analysis, Nowcasting, and Impacts (United States)

    Zavodsky, B.; Dunion, J. P.; Blackwell, W. J.; Braun, S. A.; Green, D. S.; Velden, C.; Adler, R. F.; Cossuth, J.; Murray, J. J.; Brennan, M. J.


    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of state-of-the-science observing platforms that will measure temperature and humidity soundings and precipitation with spatial resolution comparable to current operational passive microwave sounders but with unprecedented temporal resolution. TROPICS is a cost-capped ($30M) Venture-class mission funded by the NASA Earth Science Division. The mission is comprised of a constellation of 3 unit (3U) SmallSats, each hosting a 12-channel passive microwave spectrometer based on the Micro-sized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite 2 (MicroMAS-2) developed at MIT LL. TROPICS will provide imagery near 91 and 205 GHz, temperature sounding near 118 GHz, and moisture sounding near 183 GHz. Spatial resolution at nadir will be around 27 km for temperature and 17 km for moisture and precipitation. The swath width is approximately 2000 km. TROPICS enables temporal resolution similar to geostationary orbit but at a much lower cost, demonstrating a technology that could impact the design of future Earth-observing missions. The TROPICS satellites for the mission are slated for delivery to NASA in 2019 with potential launch opportunities in 2020. The primary mission objective of TROPICS is to relate temperature, humidity, and precipitation structure to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. This abstract summarizes the outcomes of the 1st TROPICS Applications Workshop, held from May 8-10, 2017 at the University of Miami. At this meeting, a series of presentations and breakout discussions in the topical areas of Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Nowcasting, Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation, and Terrestrial Impacts were convened to identify applications of the mission data and to begin to establish a community of end-users who will be able to

  8. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M


    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  9. Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies. (United States)


    Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

  10. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.


    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  11. Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.


    Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists

  12. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia. (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim


    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea


    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  14. Proceedings of the COST 75 final seminar on advanced weather radar systems; Beitraege des Instituts zum COST 75 final seminar on advanced weather radar systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumann, R.; Flender, F.; Hagen, M.; Hoeller, H.; Keil, C.; Meischner, P.


    Across Europe more than 110 weather radars are in operation. More than 60 of them are Doppler radars and this number is increasing steadily. Doppler systems are becoming an operational standard. Most systems operate in C-band, with the exception of the Spanish radar network which is composed of S-band Doppler radars. Radar product composites are available for Scandinavia and Central Europe. National networks exist for the UK, France and Spain. Europe further is fortunate to have 8 polarimetric Doppler radars used mainly for research. In Italy some of those systems are used also for operational nowcasting applications for dedicated customers. The Chilbolton multiparameter Doppler radar operates at S-band. (orig.)

  15. Surface Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  16. Mariners Weather Log (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  17. National Convective Weather Diagnostic (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  18. Pilot Weather Reports (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  19. Weather Radar Stations (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  20. Daily Weather Records (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  1. Surface Weather Observations Hourly (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  2. Radar Weather Observation (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  3. Land Surface Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  4. Internet Weather Source (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  5. Natural Weathering Exposure Station (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  6. Space Weather in Operation (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  7. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Damm


    Under +2 °C warming, the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts to up to 10.1 million nights per winter season, which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971–2000. Among the top four European skiing tourism nations – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland – France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria, followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.

  8. Relationship of deer and moose populations to previous winters' snow (United States)

    Mech, L.D.; McRoberts, R.E.; Peterson, R.O.; Page, R.E.


    (1) Linear regression was used to relate snow accumulation during single and consecutive winters with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawn:doe ratios, mosse (Alces alces) twinning rates and calf:cow ratios, and annual changes in deer and moose populations. Significant relationships were found between snow accumulation during individual winters and these dependent variables during the following year. However, the strongest relationships were between the dependent variables and the sums of the snow accumulations over the previous three winters. The percentage of the variability explained was 36 to 51. (2) Significant relationships were also found between winter vulnerability of moose calves and the sum of the snow accumulations in the current, and up to seven previous, winters, with about 49% of the variability explained. (3) No relationship was found between wolf numbers and the above dependent variables. (4) These relationships imply that winter influences on maternal nutrition can accumulate for several years and that this cumulative effect strongly determines fecundity and/or calf and fawn survivability. Although wolf (Canis lupus L.) predation is the main direct mortality agent on fawns and calves, wolf density itself appears to be secondary to winter weather in influencing the deer and moose populations.

  9. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig


    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern hemisp...... of contracts for workers is more likely to explain differences in seasonal activity than climatic or technological factors....

  10. Titan's Emergence from Winter (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul


    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  11. On the effectiveness of surface assimilation in probabilistic nowcasts of planetary boundary layer profiles (United States)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Hacker, Joshua


    Surface observations comprise a wide, non-expensive and reliable source of information about the state of the near-surface planetary boundary layer (PBL). Operational data assimilation systems have encountered several difficulties in effectively assimilating them, among others due to their local-scale representativeness, the transient coupling between the surface and the atmosphere aloft and the balance constraints usually used. A long-term goal of this work is to find an efficient system for probabilistic PBL nowcasting that can be employed wherever surface observations are present. Earlier work showed that surface observations can be an important source of information with a single column model (SCM) and an ensemble filter (EF). Here we extend that work to quantify the probabilistic skill of ensemble SCM predictions with a model including added complexity. We adopt a factor separation analysis to quantify the contribution of surface assimilation relative to that of selected model components (parameterized radiation and externally imposed horizontal advection) to the probabilistic skill of the system, and of any beneficial or detrimental interactions between them. To assess the real utility of the flow-dependent covariances estimated with the EF and of the SCM of the PBL we compare the skill of the SCM/EF system to that of a reference one based on climatological covariances and a 30-min persistence model. It consists of a dressing technique, whereby a deterministic 3D mesoscale forecast (e.g. from WRF model) is adjusted and dressed with uncertainty using a seasonal sample of mesoscale forecasts and surface forecast errors. Results show that assimilation of surface observations can improve deterministic and probabilistic profile predictions more significantly than major model improvements. Flow-dependent covariances estimated with the SCM/EF show clear advantage over the use of climatological covariances when the flow is characterized by wide variability, when

  12. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  13. Rainfall estimation for hydrology using volumetric weather radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.


    This thesis focuses specifically on weather radar rainfall measurements in strati form precipitation. In North-Western Europe this type of precipitation is most dominant in winter and leads to the largest hydro logical response of catchments. Unfortunately, the quality of uncorrected radar rainfall

  14. Aircraft route forecasting under adverse weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hauf


    Full Text Available In this paper storm nowcasts in the terminal manoeuvring area (TMA of Hong Kong International Airport are used to forecast deviation routes through a field of storms for arriving and departing aircraft. Storms were observed and nowcast by the nowcast system SWIRLS from the Hong Kong Observatory. Storms were considered as no-go zones for aircraft and deviation routes were determined with the DIVSIM software package. Two days (21 and 22 May 2011 with 22 actual flown routes were investigated. Flights were simulated with a nowcast issued at the time an aircraft entered the TMA or departed from the airport. These flights were compared with a posteriori simulations, in which all storm fields were known and circumnavigated. Both types of simulated routes were then compared with the actual flown routes. The qualitative comparison of the various routes revealed generally good agreement. Larger differences were found in more complex situations with many active storms in the TMA. Route differences resulted primarily from air traffic control measures imposed such as holdings, slow-downs and shortcuts, causing the largest differences between the estimated and actual landing time. Route differences could be enhanced as aircraft might be forced to circumnavigate a storm ahead in a different sense. The use of route forecasts to assist controllers coordinating flights in a complex moving storm field is discussed. The study emphasises the important application of storm nowcasts in aviation meteorology.

  15. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association


    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  16. Winter is losing its cool (United States)

    Feng, S.


    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  17. Using Weather Radar to Optimise Operation of an Urban Drainage System with Distributed Rainwater Storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby


    and with passive local rainwater storage tanks are used as a reference. The results show that local rain water storage tanks reduce the CSO’s by 50% and lower the maximal water levels in the storm drainage system. The active control clearly outperforms the passive storage strategy.......The perspective of controlling the local rain water storage tanks for a small catchment is investigated to evaluate if a predictive control reduces the CSO from the storm drainage system. A weather radar based nowcast system is used to predict the actual precipitation two hours ahead. In case...... of more than 1 mm rain - the control strategy is set to empty all rainwater storage tanks down to 50% capacity in order to capture a significant part of the approaching rain. This strategy is evaluated though simulation with the MOUSE model. Simulations of scenarios without local storage tanks...

  18. Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil


    The impact of space weather on the power grid is a tangible and recurring threat with potentially serious consequences on society. Of particular concern is the long-distance high-voltage power grid, which is vulnerable to the effects of geomagnetic storms that can damage or destroy equipment or lead to grid collapse. In order to launch a dialogue on the topic and encourage authorities, regulators and operators in European countries and North America to learn from each other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centre, with the contribution of the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat, jointly organised a workshop on the impact of extreme space weather on the power grid on 29-30 October 2013. Being structured into 6 sessions, the topics addressed were space-weather phenomena and the dynamics of their impact on the grid, experiences with prediction and now-casting in the USA and in Europe, risk assessment and preparedness, as well as policy implications arising from increased awareness of the space-weather hazard. The main workshop conclusions are: • There is increasing awareness of the risk of space-weather impact among power-grid operators and regulators and some countries consider it a priority risk to be addressed. • The predictability of space-weather phenomena is still limited and relies, in part, on data from ageing satellites. NOAA is working with NASA to launch the DSCOVR solar wind spacecraft, the replacement for the ACE satellite, in early 2015. • In some countries, models and tools for GIC prediction and grid impact assessment have been developed in collaboration with national power grids but equipment vulnerability models are scarce. • Some countries have successfully hardened their transmission grids to space-weather impact and sustained relatively little or no damage due to currents induced by past moderate space-weather events. • While there is preparedness

  19. Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting based on an extrapolation of radar reflectivity and an ensemble approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Mejsnar, Jan; Pop, Lukáš; Bližňák, Vojtěch


    Roč. 194, 15 September (2017), s. 245-257 ISSN 0169-8095 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : scale-dependence * forecast * predictability * images * model * rainfall * weather * analogs * motion Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016

  20. Modeling the weather impact on aviation in a global air traffic model (United States)

    Himmelsbach, S.; Hauf, T.; Rokitansky, C. H.


    Simulations: WP3.B - NAVSIM Overview and Validation Results, Edition 1.2, 2005 Kober K. and A. Tafferner. Tracking and nowcasting of convective cells using remote sensing data from radar and satellite, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 1 (No. 18), 75-84, 2009 Tafferner A. and C. Forster, Improvement of thunderstorm hazard information for pilots through a ground based weather information and management system, Eighth USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (submitted), 2009 Zinner, T., H. Mannstein, A. Tafferner. Cb-TRAM: Tracking and monitoring severe convection from onset over rapid development to mature phase using multi-channel Meteosat-8 SEVIRI data, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 101, 191-210, 2008

  1. RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.


    In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility

  2. Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds (United States)

    Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea


    Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

  3. Space Weather Laboratory (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  4. Cockpit weather information needs (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.


    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  5. Winter Frost and Fog (United States)


    This somewhat oblique blue wide angle Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows the 174 km (108 mi) diameter crater, Terby, and its vicinity in December 2004. Located north of Hellas, this region can be covered with seasonal frost and ground-hugging fog, even in the afternoon, despite being north of 30oS. The subtle, wavy pattern is a manifestation of fog. Location near: 28oS, 286oW Illumination from: upper left Season: Southern Winter

  6. Weather and emotional state (United States)

    Spasova, Z.


    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  7. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.


    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  8. Spirit's Winter Work Site (United States)


    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Annotated Version This portion of an image acquired by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment camera shows the Spirit rover's winter campaign site. Spirit was parked on a slope tilted 11 degrees to the north to maximize sunlight during the southern winter season. 'Tyrone' is an area where the rover's wheels disturbed light-toned soils. Remote sensing and in-situ analyses found the light-toned soil at Tyrone to be sulfate rich and hydrated. The original picture is catalogued as PSP_001513_1655_red and was taken on Sept. 29, 2006. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project and built the spacecraft. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment is operated by the University of Arizona, Tucson, and the instrument was built by Ball Aerospace and Technology Corp., Boulder, Colo.

  9. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino


    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  10. Fabulous Weather Day (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael


    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  11. Designing a Weather Station (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.


    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  12. KSC Weather and Research (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin


    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  13. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian


    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  14. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.


    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  15. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.


    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  16. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G


    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  17. Impacts of climate change for Swiss winter and summer tourism: a general equilibrium analysis


    Thurm, Boris; Vielle, Marc; Vöhringer, Frank


    Tourism could be greatly affected by climate change due to its strong dependence on weather. In Switzerland, the sector represents an appreciable share of the economy. Thus, studying climate effects on tourism is necessary for developing adequate adaptation strategies. While most of the studies focused on winter tourism, we investigate the climate change impacts on both winter and summer tourism in Switzerland. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we simulate the impacts of tem...

  18. Space weather effects measured in atmospheric radiation on aircraft (United States)

    Tobiska, W. K.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Judge, K.; Wieman, S. R.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Bell, L. D.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Wiley, S.; Teets, E.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Jones, J. B. L.; Crowley, G.; Azeem, S. I.; Halford, A. J.


    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the domains that are affected by space weather, the coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Since 2013 Space Environment Technologies (SET) has been conducting observations of the atmospheric radiation environment at aviation altitudes using a small fleet of six instruments. The objective of this work is to improve radiation risk management in air traffic operations. Under the auspices of the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) and Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX) projects our team is making dose rate measurements on multiple aircraft flying global routes. Over 174 ARMAS and USEWX flights have successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), Solar Energetic Protons (SEPs), and outer radiation belt energetic electrons. The real-time radiation exposure is measured as an absorbed dose rate in silicon and then computed as an ambient dose equivalent rate for reporting dose relevant to radiative-sensitive organs and tissue in units of microsieverts per hour. ARMAS total ionizing absorbed dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time, processed on the ground into ambient dose equivalent rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users. Dose rates from flight altitudes up to 56,700 ft. are shown for flights across the planet under a variety of space weather conditions. We discuss several space weather

  19. Cold Weather Entomology. (United States)

    McLure, John W.


    Suggests instructional strategies and student activities related to the study of insects during the winter. Includes possible collecting sites and classroom activities once the insects have been collected. (JN)

  20. Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction (United States)

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.


    1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more

  1. Spirit Scans Winter Haven (United States)


    At least three different kinds of rocks await scientific analysis at the place where NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit will likely spend several months of Martian winter. They are visible in this picture, which the panoramic camera on Spirit acquired during the rover's 809th sol, or Martian day, of exploring Mars (April 12, 2006). Paper-thin layers of light-toned, jagged-edged rocks protrude horizontally from beneath small sand drifts; a light gray rock with smooth, rounded edges sits atop the sand drifts; and several dark gray to black, angular rocks with vesicles (small holes) typical of hardened lava lie scattered across the sand. This view is an approximately true-color rendering that combines images taken through the panoramic camera's 753-nanometer, 535-nanometer, and 432-nanometer filters.

  2. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  3. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  4. Arctic vegetation damage by winter-generated coal mining pollution released upon thawing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elberling, B.; Søndergaard, J.; Jensen, L.A.


    summer period. Here we show that heat generation within an oxidizing, sulfidic, coal-mining waste-rock pile in Svalbard (78° N) is high enough to keep the pile warm (roughly 5 °C throughout the year) despite mean annual air temperatures below -5 °C. Consequently, weathering processes continue year...... the adverse environmental impacts of cold region coal-mining need to pay more attention to winter processes including AMD generation and accumulation of weathering products....

  5. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults. (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L


    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  6. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.


    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  7. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China--An econometric approach. (United States)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun


    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  9. Weather Information Processing (United States)


    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  10. Oil Rig Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  11. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.


    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  12. Cape Kennedy Weather Data (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  13. NOAA Weather Radio (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  14. Space Weather Products (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  15. Daily Weather Maps (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  16. Surface Weather Observations Monthly (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  17. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan


    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  18. Pronostico inmediato de tormentas convectivas por radar: una actualizacion Nowcasting of convective storms by radar: an actualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadiel Novo


    Full Text Available Una de las principales aplicaciones del radar meteorológico es el pronóstico inmediato (decenas de minutos a unas pocas horas de antelación de los eventos de precipitación convectiva. Esto reviste gran importancia pues es precisamente en este lapso de tiempo donde son menos efectivos los pronósticos numéricos. Se repasan brevemente algunas de las técnicas de pronóstico inmediato reportadas en los últimos años, haciendo énfasis en aquellas que emplean solamente información de un radar convencional. Se distingue entre las que pronostican el movimiento de las tormentas como un todo y aquellas que permiten distinguir su movimiento interno, señalando sus ventajas y desventajas en situaciones meteorológicas concretas. Como ejemplo se presentan, para un caso de estudio escogido, aplicaciones simples de dos de estas técnicas. Por último se discute la utilidad de la técnica del sistema de referencia móvil para obtener las componentes del viento no observadas a partir de un solo radar Doppler o incluso un radar convencional, y sus implicaciones para la obtención de magnitudes termodinámicas.One of the main applications of the meteorological radar is the nowcasting (some tens of minutes to some hours forward of convective precipitation events. It has a great importance since this is the space of time in which the numerical forecasting is less effective. Some of the nowcasting techniques reported in the last years are reviewed shortly, making emphasis in those that use only information from a conventional radar. A distinction is made among those that predict the total movement of the storms and those that allow distinguishing their internal movement, pointing out their advantages and disadvantages in concrete meteorological situations. It is presented, for a chosen case of study, simple applications of two of these techniques. Finally, the utility of the moving frame of reference technique for obtaining the not observed wind components

  19. Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.


    Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities [1]. For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [2], and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions [1], and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of

  20. Nowcasting, forecasting and hindcasting Harvey and Irma inundation in near-real time using a continental 2D hydrodynamic model (United States)

    Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Quinn, N.; Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Schumann, G.; Bates, P.


    During an ongoing natural disaster data are required on: (1) the current situation (nowcast); (2) its likely immediate evolution (forecast); and (3) a consistent view post-event of what actually happened (hindcast or reanalysis). We describe methods used to achieve all three tasks for flood inundation during the Harvey and Irma events using a continental scale 2D hydrodynamic model (Wing et al., 2017). The model solves the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations over a regular grid of 1 arcsecond ( 30m). Terrain data are taken from the USGS National Elevation Dataset with known flood defences represented using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset. Channels are treated as sub-grid scale features using the HydroSHEDS global hydrography data set. The model is driven using river flows, rainfall and coastal water levels. It simulates river flooding in basins > 50 km2, and fluvial and coastal flooding everywhere. Previous wide area validation tests show this model to be capable of matching FEMA maps and USGS local models built with bespoke data with hit rates of 86% and 92% respectively (Wing et al., 2017). Boundary conditions were taken from NOAA QPS data to produce nowcast and forecast simulations in near real time, before updating with NOAA observations to produce the hindcast. During the event simulation results were supplied to major insurers and multi-nationals who used them to estimate their likely capital exposure and to mitigate flood damage to their infrastructure whilst the event was underway. Simulations were validated against modelled flood footprints computed by FEMA and USACE, and composite satellite imagery produced by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. For the Harvey event, hit rates ranged from 60-84% against these data sources, but a lack of metadata meant it was difficult to perform like-for-like comparisons. The satellite data also appeared to miss known flooding in urban areas that was picked up in the models. Despite

  1. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  2. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia


    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  3. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  4. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J


    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  5. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.


    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  6. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  7. A new methodology for pixel-quantitative precipitation nowcasting using a pyramid Lucas Kanade optical flow approach (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Hong, Yang


    Short-term high-resolution Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) has important implications for navigation, flood forecasting, and other hydrological and meteorological concerns. This study proposes a new algorithm called Pixel-based QPN using the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which comprises three steps: employing a Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PLKOF) to estimate precipitation advection, projecting rainy clouds by considering the advection and evolution pixel by pixel, and interpolating QPN imagery based on the space-time continuum of cloud patches. The PPLK methodology was evaluated with 2338 images from the geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) of China and compared with two other advection-based methods, i.e., the maximum correlation method and the Horn-Schunck Optical Flow scheme. The data sample covered all intensive observations since the launch of FY-2F, despite covering a total of only approximately 10 days. The results show that the PPLK performed better than the algorithms used for comparison, demonstrating less time expenditure, more effective cloud tracking, and improved QPN accuracy.

  8. The relationship between weather and caribou productivity for the La-Poile Caribou Herd, Newfoundland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven H. Ferguson


    Full Text Available To describe the relationship between weather and caribou (Rangifer tarandus productivity, we compared weather variables (snow on ground, winter temperature and measures of growing season with measures of productivity (calves seen by hunters, calves and yearlings in the harvest and percent calves and yearlings and pregnancy rate for caribou classified during fall and spring surveys for the LaPoile Caribou Herd in southwestern Newfoundland. Hunter statistics reliably estimated changes in population demography. Percent calves seen by hunters was correlated with calves/100 females classified in fall. Weather may have influenced productivity for the LaPoile Caribou Herd in Newfoundland. Colder winter temperatures were associated with fewer calves the next fall and pregnancy rates and yearlings/100 females in the spring were negatively correlated with snow on ground the previous winter. These relationships appear to be density related.

  9. Using Citizen Science and Crowdsourcing via Aurorasaurus as a Near Real Time Data Source for Space Weather Applications (United States)

    MacDonald, E.; Heavner, M.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.; Lalone, N.; Clayon, J.; Case, N.


    Aurorasaurus is on the cutting edge of space science, citizen science, and computer science simultaneously with the broad goals to develop a real-time citizen science network, educate the general public about the northern lights, and revolutionize real-time space weather nowcasting of the aurora for the public. We are currently in the first solar maximum with social media, which enables the technological roots to connect users, citizen scientists, and professionals around a shared global, rare interest. We will introduce the project which has been in a prototype mode since 2012 and recently relaunched with a new mobile and web presence and active campaigns. We will showcase the interdisciplinary advancements which include a more educated public, disaster warning system applications, and improved real-time ground truth data including photographs and observations of the Northern Lights. We will preview new data which validates the proof of concept for significant improvements in real-time space weather nowcasting. Our aim is to provide better real-time notifications of the visibility of the Northern Lights to the interested public via the combination of noisy crowd-sourced ground truth with noisy satellite-based predictions. The latter data are available now but are often delivered with significant jargon and uncertainty, thus reliable, timely interpretation of such forecasts by the public are problematic. The former data show real-time characteristic significant rises (in tweets for instance) that correlate with other non-real-time indices of auroral activity (like the Kp index). We will discuss the source of 'noise' in each data source. Using citizen science as a platform to provide a basis for deeper understanding is one goal; secondly we want to improve understanding of and appreciation for the dynamics and beauty of the Northern Lights by the public and scientists alike.

  10. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.


    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  11. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.


    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  12. Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011. (United States)

    Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

    Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

  13. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  14. Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bihan Guillaume


    Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

  15. Vancouver winters: Environmental influences on inpatient adult orthopaedic trauma demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noordin, S.; Masri, B. A.


    Objective: To compare the pattern of adult inpatient orthopaedic injuries admitted at three Vancouver hospitals following one of the worst winter snowstorms in the region with the preceding control winter period. Methods: The surveillance study was conducted at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 2007 to 2010. Inpatient adult admissions for orthopaedic injuries at three hospitals were recorded, including age, gender, anatomic location of injury, type of fracture (open or closed), fixation method (internal versus external fixation), and length of acute care hospital stay. Comparisons between admissions during this weather pattern and admission during a previous winter with minimal snow were made. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Of the 511 patients admitted under Orthopaedic trauma service during the significant winter snowstorms of December 2008 - January 2009, 100 (19.6%) (CI: 16.2%-23.2%) were due to ice and snow, whereas in the preceding mild winter only 18 of 415 (4.3%) (CI: 2.5%-6.8%) cases were related to snow (p<0.05). Ankle and wrist fractures were the most frequent injuries during the index snow storm period (p<0.05). At all the three institutions, 97 (96.5%) fractures were closed during the snowstorm as opposed to 17 (95%) during the control winter period. Internal fixation in 06 (89%) fractures as opposed to external fixation in 12 (11%) patients was the predominant mode of fixation across the board during both time periods. Conclusion: The study demonstrated a significantly higher inpatient orthopaedic trauma volume during the snowstorm more rigorous prospective studies need to be designed to gain further insight to solving these problems from a public health perspective. (author)

  16. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.


    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  17. Multiple Weather Factors Affect Apparent Survival of European Passerine Birds (United States)

    Salewski, Volker; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Fiedler, Wolfgang


    Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for

  18. Unusually amplified summer or winter indoor levels of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gammage, R.B.; Dudney, C.S.; Wilson, D.L.


    The ratios of winter/summer indoor radon levels for houses in different regions of the southern Appalachians are characterized by individual log-normal distributions with geometric means both above and below unity. In some counties and cities, subpopulations of houses have unusually exaggerated winter/summer ratios of indoor radon, as well as high indoor radon levels, during periods of either warm or cool weather. It is proposed that in many instances, houses are communicating with larger than normal underground reservoirs of radon-bearing air in hilly karst terrains; differences between the outdoor and underground air temperatures are believed to provide density gradients producing aerostatic pressure differences for seasonally directed underground transport and subsequently elevated indoor radon. These seasonal movements of air are analogous to the well-known underground chimney effects, which produce interzonal flows of air inside caves

  19. Linkages between Icelandic Low position and SE Greenland winter precipitation (United States)

    Berdahl, M.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A. C.; Mioduszewski, J.; Hameed, S.; Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.


    Greenland's largest flux of precipitation occurs in its Southeast (SE) region. An understanding of the mechanisms controlling precipitation in this region is lacking despite its disproportionate importance in the mass balance of Greenland and the consequent contributions to sea level rise. We use weather station data from the Danish Meteorological Institute to reveal the governing influences on precipitation in SE Greenland during the winter and fall. We find that precipitation in the fall is significantly correlated to the longitude of the Icelandic Low and the NAO. Winter precipitation is correlated with the strength and longitude of the Icelandic Low, as well as the NAO. We show that in years of extreme high precipitation, onshore winds dominate, thereby advecting more moisture inland. In low precipitation years, winds are more westerly, approaching the stations from land. Understanding the controls of SE Greenland precipitation will help us predict how future precipitation in this key region may change in a warming climate.

  20. Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L; Clark, Peter A; Catto, Jennifer L


    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North-Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature, these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting-jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength. (letter)

  1. An analysis of US propane markets, winter 1996-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    In late summer 1996, in response to relatively low inventory levels and tight world oil markets, prices for crude oil, natural gas, and products derived from both began to increase rapidly ahead of the winter heating season. Various government and private sector forecasts indicated the potential for supply shortfalls and sharp price increases, especially in the event of unusually severe winter weather. Following a rapid runup in gasoline prices in the spring of 1996, public concerns were mounting about a possibly similar situation in heating fuels, with potentially more serious consequences. In response to these concerns, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) participated in numerous briefings and meetings with Executive Branch officials, Congressional committee members and staff, State Energy Offices, and consumers. EIA instituted a coordinated series of actions to closely monitor the situation and inform the public. This study constitutes one of those actions: an examination of propane supply, demand, and price developments and trends.

  2. A Climatic Classification for Citrus Winter Survival in China. (United States)

    Shou, Bo Huang


    The citrus tree is susceptible to frost damage. Winter injury to citrus from freezing weather is the major meteorological problem in the northern pail of citrus growing regions in China. Based on meteorological data collected at 120 stations in southern China and on the extent of citrus freezing injury, five climatic regions for citrus winter survival in China were developed. They were: 1) no citrus tree injury. 2) light injury to mandarins (citrus reticulate) or moderate injury to oranges (citrus sinensis), 3) moderate injury to mandarins or heavy injury to oranges, 4) heavy injury to mandarins, and 5) impossible citrus tree growth. This citrus climatic classification was an attempt to provide guidelines for regulation of citrus production, to effectively utilize land and climatic resources, to chose suitable citrus varieties, and to develop methods to prevent injury by freezing.

  3. Black brant from Alaska staging and wintering in Japan (United States)

    Derksen, Dirk V.; Bollinger, K.S.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, J.S.; Miyabayashi, Y.


    Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nest in colonies in arctic Canada, Alaska, and Russia (Derksen and Ward 1993, Sedinger et al. 1993). Virtually the entire population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula (Bellrose 1976) before southward migration (Dau 1992) to winter habitats in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California (Subcommittee on Black Brant 1992). A small number of black brant winter in Japan, Korea, and China (Owen 1980). In Japan 3,000–5,000 brant of unknown origin stop over in fall, and a declining population (in the northern islands (Brazil 1991, Miyabayashi et al. 1994). Here, we report sightings of brant in Japan that were marked in Alaska and propose a migration route based on historical and recent observations and weather patterns.

  4. Yantarnaya is a new variety of fodder winter rye

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezgodov A.V.


    Full Text Available the article has evaluation of four years observation of the prospective varieties of winter rye Yantarnaya in comparison with the standard in the nursery of the competitive variety trial of the Ural Scientific Research Institute for Agriculture in Yekaterinburg and the results of a two year test in the system of FGBU «Gossortkomissiya». A winter rye is widely used for bread baking mainly. This culture has resistance from negative environmental factors. The main cause of limited use of a winter rye grain for forage is high content water-soluble pentosans over 1.5%. They reduce availability of nutrients to an organism. Creation of varieties with low content of water-soluble pentosans is the rational solution of increase in use of parts of grain of a winter rye in forage production. Together with VIR, a variety with the required characteristics was transferred to the state grade testing. The observation took place in 2013–2017, with contrasts on the weather conditions. According to FGBU «Gossorgkomissiya», the variety has high potential productivity and significantly exceeds same low pentosan variety in the yield.

  5. Attribution of UK Winter Floods to Anthropogenic Forcing (United States)

    Schaller, N.; Alison, K.; Sparrow, S. N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Massey, N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van Haren, R.; Lamb, R.; Huntingford, C.; Crooks, S.; Legg, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Jones, R.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. R.


    Many regions of southern UK experienced severe flooding during the 2013/2014 winter. Simultaneously, large areas in the USA and Canada were struck by prolonged cold weather. At the time, the media and public asked whether the general rainy conditions over northern Europe and the cold weather over North America were caused by climate change. Providing an answer to this question is not trivial, but recent studies show that probabilistic event attribution is feasible. Using the citizen science project weather@home, we ran over 40'000 perturbed initial condition simulations of the 2013/2014 winter. These simulations fall into two categories: one set aims at simulating the world with climate change using observed sea surface temperatures while the second set is run with sea surface temperatures corresponding to a world that might have been without climate change. The relevant modelled variables are then downscaled by a hydrological model to obtain river flows. First results show that anthropogenic climate change led to a small but significant increase in the fractional attributable risk for 30-days peak flows for the river Thames. A single number can summarize the final result from probabilistic attribution studies indicating, for example, an increase, decrease or no change to the risk of the event occurring. However, communicating this to the public, media and other scientists remains challenging. The assumptions made in the chain of models used need to be explained. In addition, extreme events, like the UK floods of the 2013/2014 winter, are usually caused by a range of factors. While heavy precipitation events can be caused by dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, floods occur only partly as a response to heavy precipitation. Depending on the catchment, they can be largely due to soil properties and conditions of the previous months. Probabilistic attribution studies are multidisciplinary and therefore all aspects need to be communicated properly.

  6. The U.S. Federal Highway Administration winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pisano, P.A. [Federal Highway Administration, Road Weather Managment Program, Washington, D.C. (United States); Stern, A.D. [Mitretek Systems, Inc., Oceanic, Atmospheric and Space Systems, Falls Church, VA (United States); Mahoney, W.P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Program, Boulder, CO (United States)


    Managing a winter maintenance program today is an increasingly complex endeavor. Just making sure that a plow blade is at the ready when the first flake falls is only a small part of the task. With tight budgets and the high expectation of the public for keeping roads clear of snow and ice, today's maintenance manager has to be able to handle multiple tasks or risk getting behind the onslaught of winter weather. Good information leads to effective practices, however all of the regulations concerning chemical applications, environmental impacts and multiple, often contradictory weather forecasts can lead to information overload. The United States Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) recognized this potential problem in the late 1990's as part of its Road Weather Management (RWM) program. Generally speaking, there were plenty of weather forecasts, along with a few companies that issued road-specific forecasts, but there was a lack of linkage between the information available and the decisions made by winter maintenance managers. It was this weak link that became the genesis for the winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS has since matured into a functional prototype. During the winter of 2002-2003, the prototype was deployed at several maintenance garages in central Iowa for a field demonstration. This paper will document the implementation of the demonstration, a summary of lessons learned, and technology transfer activities. It will also describe plans for a longer, more comprehensive demonstration during the winter of 2003-2004. (orig.)

  7. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China – An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun


    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. - Highlights: • We examine the impacts of the surface ozone exposure on winter wheat yield in China. • An econometric method is used to measure the ozone impacts. • The results conclude that surface ozone is harmful to winter wheat yield in China. • We confirm that stress conditions such as drought and air particles can mitigate the adverse effect of ozone. - Surface ozone pollution is harmful to winter wheat yield in China by considering socio-economic determinants, weather, and other stress conditions like drought and air particles.

  8. Adverse weather impacts on arable cropping systems (United States)

    Gobin, Anne


    Damages due to extreme or adverse weather strongly depend on crop type, crop stage, soil conditions and management. The impact is largest during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar, and requires a modelling approach to capture the interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The hypothesis is that extreme and adverse weather events can be quantified and subsequently incorporated in current crop models. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, a regional crop model was used to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. Risk profiles and associated return levels were obtained by fitting generalized extreme value distributions to block maxima for air humidity, water balance and temperature variables. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields and yield losses for the major arable crops in Belgium, notably winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape, sugar beet, potato and maize at the field (farm records) to regional scale (statistics). The average daily vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growing season is significantly lower (p < 0.001) and has a higher variability before 1988 than after 1988. Distribution patterns of VPD and ET0 have relevant impacts on crop yields. The response to rising temperatures depends on the crop's capability to condition its microenvironment. Crops short of water close their stomata, lose their evaporative cooling potential and ultimately become susceptible to heat stress. Effects of heat stress therefore have to be combined with moisture availability such as the precipitation deficit or the soil water balance. Risks of combined heat and moisture deficit stress appear during the summer. These risks are subsequently related to crop damage. The methodology of defining

  9. Space Weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions (United States)

    Honary, Farideh


    Efficient air traffic management depends on reliable communications between aircraft and the air traffic control centres at all times. At high latitudes, and especially on polar routing, VHF ground infrastructure does not exist and the aircraft have to rely on HF radio for communications. HF relies on reflections from the ionosphere to achieve long distance communications. Unfortunately the high latitude ionosphere is affected by space weather events. During such events HF radio communication can be severely disrupted and aircraft are forced to use longer low latitude routes with consequent increased flight time, fuel consumption and cost. This presentation describes a new research programme at the University of Lancaster in collaboration with the University of Leicester, Solar Metrics Ltd and Natural Resources Canada for the development of a nowcasting and forecasting HF communications tool designed for the particular needs of civilian airlines. This project funded by EPSRC will access a wide variety of solar and interplanetary measurements to derive a complete picture of space weather disturbances affecting radio absorption and reflection

  10. Food preferences of winter bird communities in different forest types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swen C Renner

    Full Text Available Food availability for forest birds is a function of habitat type, forest management regime, and season. In winter, it is also impacted by variations in the weather. In the current study we assessed the food preferences of wild bird populations in two types of forest (spruce and beech during the months of November 2010 to April 2011 in the Schwäbische Alb Biodiversity Exploratory, south-western Germany. Our aim was to investigate whether local bird communities preferred fat-rich, carbohydrate-rich or wild fruits and to determine how forest structure, seasonality and local weather conditions affected food preferences. We found higher bird activity in beech forests for the eleven resident species. We observed a clear preference for fat-rich food for all birds in both forest types. Snow cover affected activity at food stations but did not affect food preferences. Periods of extreme low temperatures increased activity.

  11. Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany (United States)

    Conradt, Tobias


    Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

  12. Dress for the Weather (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.


    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  13. Climate, weather, and hops (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  14. Weather and Flight Testing (United States)

    Wiley, Scott


    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  15. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  16. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  17. North America Synoptic Weather Maps (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  18. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology. (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas


    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  19. Central American Flying Weather (United States)


    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  20. World Weather Extremes. Revision, (United States)


    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  1. Study of frontal weather system using satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, J.; Ershad, S.


    Pakistan which is situated in the south Asian sub continent, has a peculiar climatological position. It is one of the few countries in the world, which undergo a complete transformation from summer to winter season. However this project only pertains to the winter weather conditions in Pakistan. During winter, the land masses cool off rapidly as compared to the seas and so high pressure cells are developed over land causing, weak anti-cyclonic circulation over the country. In between these cells of anti-cyclonic flow of wind, there are zones of convergence, which offer a good breeding place for low-pressure waves. The low-pressure waves are similar to the extra tropical depressions and approach and approach Pakistan from west. From the same reason these are locally called the western Disturbances. Consequently the focus of study is on the extra tropical cyclones which originate along the boundary between polar continental and tropical or polar maritime and tropical maritime air masses. The extra tropical cyclones (also called western disturbances and westerly waves.) which are embedded in westerly flow of air move across north of Pakistan are usually originate from the Mediterranean sea. These systems consist of two types of fronts i.e. warm and cold fronts. In fact these systems can be traced right from the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. The location of frontal weather is generally associated with the surrounding synoptic situation, geographical position of the westerly wave, location of subtropical jet stream, steering wind level etc. although the satellite imageries are quite helpful for forecasting the frontal weather over our region however the weather charts (both surface and upper air ) and jet maps are also very helpful for this purpose

  2. A winter chronicle. The coldness of the winter in the Federal Republic of Germany between 1960/61 and 2007/2008; Eine Winterchronik. Die Kaelte der Winter in Deutschland von 1960/61 bis 2007/08

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinemann, Hans-Joachim


    Since the beginning of the nineteen-sixties a review of the past winter period was published each spring. These publications based on weather maps and measurements from different places across the Federal Republic of Germany. Since 1991 further locations from the new German states were added. With the aid of data such as the sum of negative daily mean air temperature from 1st November to 31st March and the amount of days with negative daily mean air temperature, the wintriness and the length of the winter for each season were calculated and compared with long-time statistical values. In addition, a no dimensional so called coldness value was generated to characterize the strength of each winter period with direct comparability between all locations in Germany. All essential information from these papers is presented chronologically.

  3. Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate. (United States)

    Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert


    Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies (United States)

    Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei


    Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

  5. Validating Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Properties for Weather and Climate Applications (United States)

    Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Smith, W., Jr.; Yost, C. R.; Bedka, S. T.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Trepte, Q.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.


    Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances are increasingly used in weather and climate applications, particularly in nowcasting, model assimilation and validation, trend monitoring, and precipitation and radiation analyses. The value of using the satellite-derived cloud parameters is determined by the accuracy of the particular parameter for a given set of conditions, such as viewing and illumination angles, surface background, and cloud type and structure. Because of the great variety of those conditions and of the sensors used to monitor clouds, determining the accuracy or uncertainties in the retrieved cloud parameters is a daunting task. Sensitivity studies of the retrieved parameters to the various inputs for a particular cloud type are helpful for understanding the errors associated with the retrieval algorithm relative to the plane-parallel world assumed in most of the model clouds that serve as the basis for the retrievals. Real world clouds, however, rarely fit the plane-parallel mold and generate radiances that likely produce much greater errors in the retrieved parameter than can be inferred from sensitivity analyses. Thus, independent, empirical methods are used to provide a more reliable uncertainty analysis. At NASA Langley, cloud properties are being retrieved from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for climate monitoring and model validation as part of the NASA CERES project since 2000 and from AVHRR data since 1978 as part of the NOAA CDR program. Cloud properties are also being retrieved in near-real time globally from both GEO and LEO satellites for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. This paper discusses the various independent datasets and approaches that are used to assessing the imager-based satellite cloud retrievals. These include, but are not limited to data from ARM sites, CloudSat, and CALIPSO. This paper discusses the use of the various

  6. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi


    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  7. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  8. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  9. Space Weather Services of Korea (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.


    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  10. Learning through a Winter's Tale (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie


    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this…

  11. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings. (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre


    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  12. A framework for standardized calculation of weather indices in Germany (United States)

    Möller, Markus; Doms, Juliane; Gerstmann, Henning; Feike, Til


    Climate change has been recognized as a main driver in the increasing occurrence of extreme weather. Weather indices (WIs) are used to assess extreme weather conditions regarding its impact on crop yields. Designing WIs is challenging, since complex and dynamic crop-climate relationships have to be considered. As a consequence, geodata for WI calculations have to represent both the spatio-temporal dynamic of crop development and corresponding weather conditions. In this study, we introduce a WI design framework for Germany, which is based on public and open raster data of long-term spatio-temporal availability. The operational process chain enables the dynamic and automatic definition of relevant phenological phases for the main cultivated crops in Germany. Within the temporal bounds, WIs can be calculated for any year and test site in Germany in a reproducible and transparent manner. The workflow is demonstrated on the example of a simple cumulative rainfall index for the phenological phase shooting of winter wheat using 16 test sites and the period between 1994 and 2014. Compared to station-based approaches, the major advantage of our approach is the possibility to design spatial WIs based on raster data characterized by accuracy metrics. Raster data and WIs, which fulfill data quality standards, can contribute to an increased acceptance and farmers' trust in WI products for crop yield modeling or weather index-based insurances (WIIs).

  13. The influence of weather on fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis. [in human body (United States)

    Marchenko, V. I.


    Analysis of fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis indices by month showed an increase in the activity of these processes from winter to summer (1967-1968). At all seasons of the year, fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis increase during weather of the cyclonic type with passage of fronts and sharp fluctuations in meteorological factors in the atmosphere.

  14. The effect of inclement weather on ankle fracture management in an Irish trauma unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Neill, B J


    Ireland is unfamiliar with extreme weather conditions. Such conditions occurred in winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, with much of the country being affected by snow and ice. We reviewed the effect that these conditions had on the treatment of ankle fractures in our trauma unit.

  15. The power situation in winter 2010/2011; Kraftsituasjonen vinteren 2010/2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pettersen, Finn Erik Ljaastad (ed.)


    At the beginning of winter, the reservoir level was record low. Very cold weather before the end of the year contributed to the further tapping. Mild weather and early snow melt caused a rapid increase in water levels in beginning of April. On average, the Norwegian power prices was higher last winter compared with the previous winter. High prices are necessary to get high Norwegian imports and keep consumption down, and thus saving water in the reservoirs. Limitations in transmission capacity between market areas affected the prices and power flow last winter. In the night and weekend hours contributed network problems in southern Sweden to the reduced transmission capacity to Southern Norway. This dampened the Norwegian imports, and Norwegian hydropower producers tapped more of the magazined water than they otherwise would. This emphasizes the need to continue NVE's efforts to explore possibilities for a better utilization of transmission capacities in the network. There were several events that had an impact on the operation of the power system and security of supply last winter. Error events led to interruption for many grid customers, in addition to significant risk of further extensive dark laying of large areas if another failure should occur. (AG

  16. The Weather in Richmond


    Harless, William Edwin


    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  17. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta


    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  18. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate (United States)

    Denny, Mark


    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  19. Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions (United States)

    Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.


    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

  20. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.


    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  1. 36 CFR 1002.19 - Winter activities. (United States)


    ... RECREATION § 1002.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice skating, sledding, innertubing, tobogganing and similar winter sports are prohibited on Presidio Trust roads and in parking areas open to...

  2. Classification guide: Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games



    The Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games classification guide is designed to provide National Paralympic Committees (NPCs) and International Federations (IFs) with information about the classification policies and procedures that will apply to the Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games.

  3. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter (United States)

    ... Weekend Warriors expand/collapse Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are ... skiing! Be Mindful of Time Spent in the Sun, Regardless of the Season If possible, ski early ...

  4. Vodcasting Space Weather (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.


    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  5. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J


    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  6. Weathering of rock 'Ginger' (United States)


    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  7. Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven I-Jy Chien


    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

  8. The 2016 Arctic Winter Games: “Now we do what we do best”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Carina Bregnholm; Thomsen, Robert Chr.


    A few days before the opening ceremony of the 2016 Arctic Winter Games (AWG) in Nuuk, Greenland, weather reports looked bleak. A spring blizzard was on its way and expected to peak the day prior to the opening ceremony. That very Saturday, 1250 participants were set to fly to Greenland’s capital...... city – the highest number of civilians arriving in one day by aircraft in the island’s history. Now, however, bad weather was jeopardizing this milestone in Greenlandic aviation history and, along with that, the successful execution of the upcoming games....

  9. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker


    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  10. SPoRT: Transitioning NASA and NOAA Experimental Data to the Operational Weather Community (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.


    Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. With the ever-broadening application of real-time high resolution satellite data from current EOS, Suomi NPP, and planned JPSS and GOES-R sensors to weather forecast problems, significant challenges arise in the acquisition, delivery, and integration of the new capabilities into the decision making process of the operational weather community. For polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS, AIRS, VIIRS, and CRiS, the use of direct broadcast ground stations is key to the real-time delivery of the data and derived products in a timely fashion. With the ABI on the geostationary GOES-R satellite, the data volumes will likely increase by a factor of 5-10 from current data streams. However, the high data volume and limited bandwidth of end user facilities presents a formidable obstacle to timely access to the data. This challenge can be addressed through the use of subsetting techniques, innovative web services, and the judicious selection of data formats. Many of these approaches have been implemented by SPoRT for the delivery of real-time products to NWS forecast offices and other weather entities. Once available in decision support systems like AWIPS II, these new data and products must be integrated into existing and new displays that allow for the integration of the data with existing operational products in these systems. SPoRT is leading the way in demonstrating this enhanced capability. This paper will highlight the ways SPoRT is overcoming many of the challenges presented by the enormous data

  11. Leadership in American Indian Communities: Winter Lessons (United States)

    Metoyer, Cheryl A.


    Winter lessons, or stories told in the winter, were one of the ways in which tribal elders instructed and directed young men and women in the proper ways to assume leadership responsibilities. Winter lessons stressed the appropriate relationship between the leader and the community. The intent was to remember the power and purpose of that…

  12. 46 CFR 45.73 - Winter freeboard. (United States)


    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Winter freeboard. 45.73 Section 45.73 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) LOAD LINES GREAT LAKES LOAD LINES Freeboards § 45.73 Winter freeboard. The minimum winter freeboard (fw) in inches is obtained by the formula: fw=f(s)+T s...

  13. A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees. (United States)

    Luedeling, Eike; Brown, Patrick H


    Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between -155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between -10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change.

  14. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.


    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  15. Storm related closures of I-5 and I-90 : freight transportation economic impact assessment report, winter 2007-2008. (United States)


    This report documents the economic impact analysis undertaken by WSDOTs Freight Systems Division in response to the : storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in the winter 2007-2008. The closures were the result of severe weather that : overwhelmed...

  16. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies. (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang


    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  17. Winter: Public Enemy #1 for Accessibility EXPLORING NEW SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Morales


    Full Text Available Abstract: Winter is expensive. For countries situated in the northern hemisphere, closer to the north pole, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, winter requires the acquisition of special clothing, car tires, and sports equipment, snow removal or plowing from the streets, and is associated with the presence of ice patches, along with accidents and illnesses associated with cold weather. Fall-related injuries due to winter conditions have been estimated to cost the Canadian health care system $ 2.8 billion a year. However, the greatest cost snow entails every year is the social isolation of seniors as well as wheelchair and walker users. This results from the lack of accessibility, as it is difficult to circulate on snow-covered streets even for the able-bodied. Social isolation has been associated with other negative consequences such as depression and even suicide. This exploratory pilot study aimed at finding possible and feasible design solutions for improving the accessibility of sidewalks during winter conditions. For this project we used a Co-Design methodology. Stakeholders (City of Quebec representatives, designers, urban planners, occupational therapists, and adults with motor, visual and aural disabilities were invited to participate in the design process. In order to meet the objectives, two main steps were carried out: 1. Conception of the design solutions (through Co-design sessions in a Focus-group format with seniors, designers and researchers; and 2. Validation of the design solutions (consultation with experts and stakeholders. The results are a wide variety of possible and feasible solutions, including the reorganisation of the snow-removal procedure and the development of heated curb cuts. This project was funded by the City of Quebec in partnership with the Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale (CIRRIS. Ultimately, the project sought to explore possible solutions to be implemented

  18. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson


    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  19. Terminal weather information management (United States)

    Lee, Alfred T.


    Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

  20. Effect of Postsowing Compaction on Cold and Frost Tolerance of North China Plain Winter Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyun Lu


    Full Text Available Improper postsowing compaction negatively affects soil temperature and thereby cold and frost tolerance, particularly in extreme cold weather. In North China Plain, the temperature falls to 5 degrees below zero, even lower in winter, which is period for winter wheat growing. Thus improving temperature to promote wheat growth is important in this area. A field experiment from 2013 to 2016 was conducted to evaluate effects of postsowing compaction on soil temperature and plant population of wheat at different stages during wintering period. The effect of three postsowing compaction methods—(1 compacting wheel (CW, (2 crosskill roller (CR, and (3 V-shaped compacting roller after crosskill roller (VCRCR—on winter soil temperatures and relation to wheat shoot growth parameters were measured. Results showed that the highest soil midwinter temperature was in the CW treatment. In the 20 cm and 40 cm soil layer, soil temperatures were ranked in the following order of CW > VCRCR > CR. Shoot numbers under CW, CR, and VCRCR treatments were statistically 12.40% and 8.18% higher under CW treatment compared to CR or VCRCR treatments at the end of wintering period. The higher soil temperature under CW treatment resulted in higher shoot number at the end of wintering period, apparently due to reduced shoot death by cold and frost damage.

  1. Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Collaud Coen


    Full Text Available Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2 measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l. have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each synoptic weather type to the aerosol concentration was deduced from the aerosol annual cycles while the planetary boundary layer (PBL influence was estimated by means of the diurnal cycles. Since aerosols are scavenged by precipitation, the diurnal cycle of the CO concentration was also used to identify polluted air masses. SO2 and NOx concentrations were used as precursor tracers for new particle formation and growth, respectively. The aerosol optical parameters and number concentration show elevated loadings during advective weather types during the December–March period and for the convective anticyclonic and convective indifferent weather types during the April–September period. This study confirms the consensus view that the JFJ is mainly influenced by the free troposphere during winter and by injection of air parcels from the PBL during summer. A more detailed picture is, however, drawn where the JFJ is completely influenced by free tropospheric air masses in winter during advective weather types and largely influenced by the PBL also during the night in summer during the subsidence weather type. Between these two extreme situations, the PBL influence at the JFJ depends on both the time of year and the synoptic weather type. The fraction of PBL air transported to the JFJ was estimated by the relative increase of the specific humidity and CO.

  2. Weathering and decontamination of radioactivity deposited on asphalt surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warming, L.


    Longlived fission products might be deposited in the environment after a serious reactor accident. At Risoe we have studied how danish weather conditions and fire hosing influence the decontamination of Rubidium 86 (representing Cesium 134 and 137) Barium-Lanthanum 140 and Ruthenium 103 deposited on asphalt surfaces. Measurements have been done at different types of roads and during all seasons including winter with snow and ice cover of the roads. The results from the first five experiments were used for calculating doses to the population in the land contamination (RISO-R-462). (author)

  3. Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)


    The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

  4. Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses. (United States)

    Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J


    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather

  5. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  6. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.


    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  7. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  8. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast... (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew


    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  9. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.


    Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  10. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.


    Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  11. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter (United States)

    Robock, A.


    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  12. [Perceived pain and weather changes in rheumatic patients]. (United States)

    Miranda, L Cunha; Parente, M; Silva, C; Clemente-Coelho, P; Santos, H; Cortes, S; Medeiros, D; Ribeiro, J Saraiva; Barcelos, F; Sousa, M; Miguel, C; Figueiredo, R; Mediavilla, M; Simões, E; Silva, M; Patto, J Vaz; Madeira, H; Ferreira, J; Micaelo, M; Leitão, R; Las, V; Faustino, A; Teixeira, A


    Rheumatic patients with chronic pain describe in a vivid way the influence of climate on pain and disease activity. Several studies seem to confirm this association. To evaluate and compare in a population of rheumatic patients the perceived influence of weather changes on pain and disease activity This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. For three weeks an assisted self-reported questionnaire with nine dimensions and a VAS pain scale was performed on consecutive out-patients in our clinic. 955 patients 787 female 168 male mean age 57.9 years with several rheumatologic diagnosis were evaluated. Overall 70 of the patients believed that the weather influenced their disease and 40 believed that the influence was high. Morning stiffness was influenced in 54 high influenced in 34 . Autumn and Winter were the most influential periods as well as humidity 67 and low temperatures 59 . In our study as well as in literature we found that a high percentage of patients 70 perceived that weather conditions influenced their pain and disease. Fibromyalgia patients seemed to be strongly influenced by weather changes. Our study confirms that patients perception on the influence of climate on pain and therefore their disease is an important clinical factor and it should be considered when evaluating rheumatic patients.

  13. Economical effectiveness of fungal diseases control of winter wheat in 2000-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Jaczewska-Kalicka


    Full Text Available Winter wheat is a very susceptible species to infection by pathogenic fungi requires the application of plant protection products. Their effectiveness and profitability of application depend on numerous factors. The most important of them are: weather and environmental conditions, managing and organisation of production, the intensity of oc-currence and harmfulness of occurring pathogenes, the amount of obtained yield, costs of protection and grain selling prices. Presented research results are derived from plot ex-periments conducted in the Field Experimental Station IOR-PIB Grodzisk Mazowiecki, on the fields of Agricultural Experimental Station SGGW Chylice, mazowieckie voivode-ship, in 2000-2008 on winter wheat. A high differentiation was stated in profitability of applying particular fungicides, as well as considerable differences between particular vegetative seasons of winter wheat cultivation. In each year, except 2000, protection treatments were profitable, in spite of high costs being on average 10% of the value of protected crop.

  14. Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone (United States)

    Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng


    Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

  15. Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter (United States)

    Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.


    Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

  16. Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO (United States)

    Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.


    Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

  17. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.


    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  18. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.


    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  19. Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. (United States)

    Luedeling, Eike; Girvetz, Evan H; Semenov, Mikhail A; Brown, Patrick H


    Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.

  20. Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.


    Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

  1. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Multimedia

    Corinne Pralavorio


    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  2. Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; Xie, Yulong; Kraucunas, Ian


    Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

  3. Sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction to the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis into the Brazilian Global Model Data Assimilation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamiris B. Campos


    Full Text Available Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor associated with the deficient methodologies used in its quantification and the imperfect physics parameterizations incorporated in the models, there are significant uncertainties in characterizing the moisture field. The process responsible for incorporating the information provided by observation into the numerical weather prediction is denominated data assimilation. The best result in atmospheric moisture depend on the correct choice of the moisture control variable. Normalized relative humidity and pseudo-relative humidity are the variables usually used by the main weather prediction centers. The objective of this study is to assess the sensibility of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies to choose moisture control variable in the data assimilation scheme. Experiments using these variables are carried out. The results show that the pseudo-relative humidity improves the variables that depend on temperature values but damage the moisture field. The opposite results show when the simulation used the normalized relative humidity. These experiments suggest that the pseudo-relative humidity should be used in the cyclical process of data assimilation and the normalized relative humidity should be used in non-cyclic process (e.g., nowcasting application in high resolution.

  4. Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950 (United States)

    Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.


    Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results

  5. Near real-time geomagnetic data for space weather applications in the European sector (United States)

    Johnsen, M. G.; Hansen, T. L.


    Tromsø Geophysical Observatory (TGO) is responsible for making and maintaining long time-series of geomagnetic measurements in Norway. TGO is currently operating 3 geomagnetic observatories and 11 variometer stations from southern Norway to Svalbard . Data from these 14 locations are acquired, processed and made available for the user community in near real-time. TGO is participating in several European Union (EU) and European Space Agency (ESA) space weather related projects where both near real-time data and derived products are provided. In addition the petroleum industry is benefiting from our real-time data services for directional drilling. Near real-time data from TGO is freely available for non-commercial purposes. TGO is exchanging data in near real-time with several institutions, enabling the presentation of near real-time geomagnetic data from more than 40 different locations in Fennoscandia and Greenland. The open exchange of non real-time geomagnetic data has been successfully going on for many years through services such as the world data center in Kyoto, SuperMAG, IMAGE and SPIDR. TGO's vision is to take this one step further and make the exchange of near real-time geomagnetic data equally available for the whole community. This presentation contains an overview of TGO, our activities and future aims. We will show how our near real-time data are presented. Our contribution to the space weather forecasting and nowcasting effort in the EU and ESA will be presented with emphasis on our real-time auroral activity index and brand new auroral activity monitor and electrojet tracker.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia (United States)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.


    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  7. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jón Einar Jónsson

    Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

  8. Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry (United States)

    Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.


    The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

  9. Chemical Weathering on Venus (United States)

    Zolotov, Mikhail


    Chemical and phase compositions of Venus's surface could reflect history of gas- and fluid-rock interactions, recent and past climate changes, and a loss of water from the Earth's sister planet. The concept of chemical weathering on Venus through gas-solid type reactions has been established in 1960s after the discovery of hot and dense CO2-rich atmosphere inferred from Earth-based and Mariner 2 radio emission data. Initial works suggested carbonation, hydration, and oxidation of exposed igneous rocks and a control (buffering) of atmospheric gases by solid-gas type chemical equilibria in the near-surface lithosphere. Calcite, quartz, wollastonite, amphiboles, and Fe oxides were considered likely secondary minerals. Since the late 1970s, measurements of trace gases in the sub-cloud atmosphere by Pioneer Venus and Venera entry probes and Earth-based infrared spectroscopy doubted the likelihood of hydration and carbonation. The H2O gas content appeared to be low to allow a stable existence of hydrated and a majority of OH-bearing minerals. The concentration of SO2 was too high to allow the stability of calcite and Ca-rich silicates with respect to sulfatization to CaSO4. In 1980s, the supposed ongoing consumption of atmospheric SO2 to sulfates gained support by the detection of an elevated bulk S content at Venera and Vega landing sites. The induced composition of the near-surface atmosphere implied oxidation of ferrous minerals to magnetite and hematite, consistent with the infrared reflectance of surface materials. The likelihood of sulfatization and oxidation has been illustrated in modeling experiments at simulated Venus conditions. Venus's surface morphology suggests that hot surface rocks and fines of mainly mafic composition contacted atmospheric gases during several hundreds of millions years since a global volcanic resurfacing. Some exposed materials could have reacted at higher and lower temperatures in a presence of diverse gases at different altitudinal

  10. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping


    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  11. Coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia during a stormy winter period (United States)

    Otero, Pablo; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; García-García, Luz; González-Nuevo, Gonzalo; Cabanas, Jose Manuel


    The consequences of a stormy winter period (2009/2010) on the shelf and coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia are analysed by using model results in combination with the set of available observations in the frame of the Iberian Margin Ocean Observatory (RAIA), a cross-border infrastructure among North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). During the study winter, the frequent arrival of weather fronts forced river plumes to flow along the inner shelf in a fast (>1 m s-1) jet-like structure. The buoyant current strongly influenced the outer rías, the name of the estuaries in the region, where a strong decay of surface salinity (15 °C) and salty (>35.9) waters into the rías associated with the Iberian Poleward Current. Finally, some Lagrangian modelling experiments were performed to analyse the transport ability of the plume and the effect that could have had in the biological material trapped on it. The experiments reveal that an overall northward displacement of surface particles will be expected after several alternate wind events.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the main blizzards from the winter of 2011-2012, caused by the radical weather change on January 25th, 2012. After the excessively droughty autumn of 2011 (Marinică, Marinică, 2012, the warm December on the whole was followed by a warm January in the first 25 days, and then a sudden change of the thermal time type occurred. The excessively cold interval January 26th- February 15th, 2012 caused many human victims in the entire country and at the level of the whole European continent, as well as significant material damages, this short episode of severe winter has been one of the coldest of the history of climatic observations. The analysis is a continuation of extended studies on the ever-growing climatic oscillations and risks, as a consequence of the climatic variability increase in Romania (Bogdan, Marinică, 2007, 2009.The paper is useful for a broad category of specialists interested in the climate and climatic risk.

  13. Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greeves, C.Z.; Pope, V.D.; Stratton, R.A.; Martin, G.M. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)


    Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks. (orig.)

  14. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas


    classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

  15. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  16. Practical Weathering for Geology Students. (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter


    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  17. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  18. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    around the sun. If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the black body ..... First law of thermodynamics. Relates ... (Third Edition) Charles E Merrill Publishing. Company.

  19. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  20. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  1. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  2. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  3. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  4. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  5. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  6. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  8. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  10. Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany) (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie


    central European mean sea level pressure fields into "Großwettertypes" (Beck 2000) the relationships between meteorological variables and stroke frequencies are increasing. Mainly temperature variables (Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) appear to be important particularly in winter and summer. Moreover distinct correlations of similar magnitude are obtained with other variables like wind speed or precipitation for specific weather types (e.g. westerly type). In how far these initial findings do really point to additional health impacts beyond temperature effects is subject of ongoing work.

  11. Effects of drought and prolonged winter on Townsend's ground squirrel demography in shrubsteppe habitats (United States)

    Van Horne, Beatrice; Olson, Gail S.; Schooley, Robert L.; Corn, Janelle G.; Burnham, Kenneth P.


    During a mark–recapture study of Townsend's ground squirrels (Spermophilus townsendii) on 20 sites in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area, Idaho, in 1991 through 1994, 4407 animals were marked in 17639 capture events. This study of differences in population dynamics of Townsend's ground squirrels among habitats spanned a drought near the extreme of the 130-yr record, followed by prolonged winter conditions.Townsend's ground squirrels have a short active season (≈4 mo) in which to reproduce and store fat for overwintering. Their food consists largely of succulent grasses and forbs in this dry shrubsteppe and grassland habitat. The drought in the latter half of the 1992 active season produced early drying of Sandberg's bluegrass (Poa secunda) and was associated with low adult and juvenile body masses prior to immergence into estivation/hibernation. The following prolonged winter was associated with late emergence of females in 1993. Early-season body masses of adults were low in 1993 relative to 1992, whereas percentage of body fat in males was relatively high. These weather patterns in spring 1992 and winter 1993 also resulted in reduced adult persistence through the ≈7-mo inactive period, especially for adult females, and near-zero persistence of >1200 juveniles. Consequently, densities of Townsend's ground squirrels across the 20 livetrap sites declined.The demographic effects of drought and prolonged winter lasted at least through the subsequent breeding season. Adult females that survived these weather extremes produced fewer emergent young per female than did adult females prior to the event. Prior to the drought/prolonged winter, yearling female body masses were higher than, or indistinguishable from, those of adults. Females produced in 1993 had lower body masses as yearlings than did adult females.Demographic response to the drought and prolonged winter varied with habitat; ground squirrels in sagebrush habitat showed less decline

  12. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless. (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy


    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  13. The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing (United States)

    Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'En; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi


    The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

  14. An industry perspective on the use of seasonal forecasts and weather information for evaluating sensitivities in traded commodity supply chains (United States)

    Domeisen, Daniela; Slavov, Georgi


    Weather information on seasonal timescales is crucial to various end users, from the level of subsistence farming to the government level. Also the financial industry is ever more aware of and interested in the benefits that early and correctly interpreted forecast information provides. Straight forward and often cited applications include the estimation of rainfall and temperature anomalies for drought - prone agricultural areas producing traded commodities, as well as some of the rather direct impacts of weather on energy production. Governments, weather services, as well as both academia and private companies are working on tailoring climate and weather information to a growing number of customers. However, also other large markets, such as coal, iron ore, and gas, are crucially dependent on seasonal weather information and forecasts, while the needs are again very dependent on the direction of the predicted signal. So far, relatively few providers in climate services address these industries. All of these commodities show a strong seasonal and weather dependence, and an unusual winter or summer can crucially impact their demand and supply. To name a few impacts, gas is crucially driven by heating demand, iron ore excavation is dependent on the available water resources, and coal mining is dependent on winter temperatures and rainfall. This contribution will illustrate and provide an inside view of the type of climate and weather information needed for the various large commodity industries.

  15. Road salt application planning tool for winter de-icing operations (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Perera, Nandana


    Road authorities, who are charged with the task of maintaining safe, driveable road conditions during severe winter storm events are coming under increasing pressure to protect salt vulnerable areas (SVAs). For the purpose of modelling urban winter hydrology, the temperature index method was modified to incorporate ploughing and salting considerations and was calibrated using winter field data from two sites in Southern Ontario and validated using data collected from a section of Highway 401 - Canada's busiest highway. The modified temperature index model (MTIM) accurately predicted salt-induced melt (R2 = 0.98 and 0.99, RMSE = 19.9 and 282.4 m3, CRM = -0.003 and 0.006 for calibration and validation sites respectively), and showed a demonstrable ability to calculate the Bare Pavement Regain Time (BPRT). The BPRT is a key factor on road safety and the basis for many winter maintenance performance standards for different classes of highways. Optimizing salt application rate scenarios can be achieved using the MTIM with only two meteorological forecast inputs for the storm event - readily available on-line through the Road Weather Information System (RWIS) - and can serve as a simple yet effective tool for winter road maintenance practitioners seeking to optimize salt application rates for a given storm event in salt vulnerable areas.

  16. Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Bussel, Van L.G.J.; Enders, Andreas; Specka, Xenia; Sosa, Carmen; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Tao, Fulu; Constantin, Julie; Raynal, Helene; Teixeira, Edmar; Grosz, Balázs; Doro, Luca; Zhao, Zhigan; Nendel, Claas; Kiese, Ralf; Eckersten, Henrik; Haas, Edwin; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wang, Enli; Kuhnert, Matthias; Trombi, Giacomo; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco; Lewan, Elisabet; Bach, Michaela; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rötter, Reimund; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Wallach, Daniel; Cammarano, Davide; Asseng, Senthold; Krauss, Gunther; Siebert, Stefan


    We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 processbased crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and

  17. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. (United States)


    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

  18. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.


    Meteorological conditions play a fundamental role during entire chestnut tree vegetative cycle. Chestnut trees are well adapted to mean year temperatures of 8-15°C, requires monthly mean temperatures greater than 10°C during 6 months (Gomes-Laranjo et al. 2008) and its pollen only germinates at relatively high temperatures of 27-30°C (Bounous, 2002). Photosynthesis of an adult tree is highly dependent of temperature. Photosynthesis is maximal at 24-28°C but it is inhibited for temperatures greater than 32°C (Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2005, 2006). Furthermore, there are significant differences between chestnut trees cultivated in northfaced orchads in relation to those cultivated in the southfaced and between leaves from different sides of the chestnut canopy because they receive different amounts of radiant energy and consequently they grow under different mean daily air temperature. The objective of this work was to assess the role of weather on chestnut production variability. This study was performed for the 28 years period defined between 1980 and 2007 and it was based on annual values of chestnut production and total area of production, at national level, provided by INE, the National Institute of Statistics of Portugal. The meteorological data used was provided by Meteored ( and includes daily values of precipitation, wind speed, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. All meteorological variables were tested as potential predictors by means of a simple correlation analysis. Multiple time intervals were considered in this the analysis, which consist in moving intervals of constant length and forward and backward evolutionary intervals. Results show that some meteorological variables present significant correlation with chestnut productivity particularly in the most relevant periods of the chestnut tree cycle, like the previous winter, the flushing phase and the maturation period. A regression model based on the winter (January

  19. Space Weather Impacts on Spacecraft Operations: Identifying and Establishing High-Priority Operational Services (United States)

    Lawrence, G.; Reid, S.; Tranquille, C.; Evans, H.


    Space Weather is a multi-disciplinary and cross-domain system defined as, 'The physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the Sun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them, and also at forecasting and nowcasting the potential impacts on biological and technological systems'. National and Agency-level efforts to provide services addressing the myriad problems, such as ESA's SSA programme are therefore typically complex and ambitious undertakings to introduce a comprehensive suite of services aimed at a large number and broad range of end users. We focus on some of the particular threats and risks that Space Weather events pose to the Spacecraft Operations community, and the resulting implications in terms of User Requirements. We describe some of the highest-priority service elements identified as being needed by the Operations community, and outline some service components that are presently available, or under development. The particular threats and risks often vary according to orbit, so the particular User Needs for Operators at LEO, MEO and GEO are elaborated. The inter-relationship between these needed service elements and existing service components within the broader Space Weather domain is explored. Some high-priority service elements and potential correlation with Space Weather drivers include: solar array degradation and energetic proton storms; single event upsets at GEO and solar proton events and galactic cosmic rays; surface charging and deep dielectric charging at MEO and radiation belt dynamics; SEUs at LEO and the South Atlantic Anomaly and its variability. We examine the current capability to provide operational services addressing such threats and identify some advances that the Operations community can expect to benefit

  20. Creating a comprehensive quality-controlled dataset of severe weather occurrence in Europe (United States)

    Groenemeijer, P.; Kühne, T.; Liang, Z.; Holzer, A.; Feuerstein, B.; Dotzek, N.


    Ground-truth quality-controlled data on severe weather occurrence is required for meaningful research on severe weather hazards. Such data are collected by observation networks of several authorities in Europe, most prominently the National Hydrometeorological Institutes (NHMS). However, some events challenge the capabilities of such conventional networks by their isolated and short-lived nature. These rare and very localized but extreme events include thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes and are poorly resolved by synoptic observations. Moreover, their detection by remote-sensing techniques such as radar and satellites is in development and has proven to be difficult. Using the fact that all across across Europe there are many people with a special personal or professional interest in such events, who are typically organized in associations, allows pursuing a different strategy. Data delivered to the European Severe Weather Database is recorded and quality controlled by ESSL and a large number of partners including the Hydrometeorological Institutes of Germany, Finland, Austria, Italy and Bulgaria. Additionally, nine associations of storm spotters and centres of expertise in these and other countries are involved. The two categories of organizations (NHMSes/other) each have different privileges in the quality control procedure, which involves assigning a quality level of QC0+ (plausibility checked), QC1 (confirmed by reliable sources) or QC2 (verified) to each of the reports. Within the EWENT project funded by the EU 7th framework programme, the RegioExakt project funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research, and with support from the German Weather Service (DWD), several enhancements of the ESWD have been and will be carried out. Completed enhancements include the creation of an interface that allows partner organizations to upload data automatically, in the case of our German partner "Skywarn Germany" in near-real time. Moreover, the

  1. Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs (United States)

    Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.


    GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

  2. Interim Report 'Winter smog and traffic'.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemen, H.; Blom, T.; Bogaard, van den C.; Boluyt, N.; Bree, van L.; Brunekreef, B.; Hoek, G.; Zee, van der S.


    This report presents a halfway score of the research project "Winter smog and Traffic", one of the themes of the research programme "Air Pollution and Health". A state of the art is presented of the health effects associated with exposure to winter smog and of the toxicological effects caused by the

  3. Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena (United States)

    Badash, Lawrence


    The nuclear winter phenomenon is used to illustrate the many paths by which scientific advice reaches decision makers in the United States government. Because the Reagan administration was hostile to the strategic policy that the scientific discovery seemed to demand, the leading proponent of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan, used his formidable talent for popularization to reach a larger audience.

  4. Chapter 7: Migration and winter ecology (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Jean-Luc E. Cartron


    The willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) is a Neotropical migrant that breeds in North America, but winters in Central and northern South America. Little specific information is known about migration and wintering ecology of the southwestern willow flycatcher (E. t. extimus) (Yong and Finch 1997). Our report applies principally...

  5. Association between extraterrestrial phenomena and weather changes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bochníček, Josef; Hejda, Pavel


    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2002), s. 303-333 ISSN 0169-3298 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806; GA AV ČR IAA3042102 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * solar activity * temperature deviations * global atmospheric electric circuit Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.214, year: 2002

  6. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger


    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  7. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.


    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  8. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  9. Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin


    There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

  10. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.


    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  11. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková


    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  12. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application


    Piotr Binkowski


    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  13. Nuclear winter or nuclear fall? (United States)

    Berger, André

    Climate is universal. If a major modern nuclear war (i.e., with a large number of small-yield weapons) were to happen, it is not even necessary to have a specific part of the world directly involved for there to be cause to worry about the consequences for its inhabitants and their future. Indeed, smoke from fires ignited by the nuclear explosions would be transported by winds all over the world, causing dark and cold. According to the first study, by Turco et al. [1983], air surface temperature over continental areas of the northern mid-latitudes (assumed to be the nuclear war theatre) would fall to winter levels even in summer (hence the term “nuclear winter”) and induce drastic climatic conditions for several months at least. The devastating effects of a nuclear war would thus last much longer than was assumed initially. Discussing to what extent these estimations of long-term impacts on climate are reliable is the purpose of this article.

  14. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium (United States)

    Gobin, Anne


    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  15. Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta S. Lopes


    Full Text Available Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions. Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading. Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny

  16. Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms. (United States)

    Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail


    This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

  17. There's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing: climate, weather and active school transportation in Toronto, Canada. (United States)

    Mitra, Raktim; Faulkner, Guy


    Climatic conditions may enable or deter active school transportation in many North American cities, but the topic remains largely overlooked in the existing literature. This study explores the effect of seasonal climate (i.e., fall versus winter) and weekly weather conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on active travelling to school across different built and policy environments. Home-to-school trips by 11-12-year-old children in the City of Toronto were examined using data from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Binomial logistic regressions were estimated to explore the correlates of the choice of active (i.e., walking) versus non-active (i.e., private automobile, transit and school bus) mode for school trips. Climate and weather-related variables were not associated with choice of school travel mode. Children living within the sidewalk snow-plough zone (i.e., in the inner-suburban neighbourhoods) were less likely to walk to school than children living outside of the zone (i.e., in the inner-city neighbourhoods). Given that seasonality and short-term weather conditions appear not to limit active school transportation in general, built environment interventions designed to facilitate active travel could have benefits that spill over across the entire year rather than being limited to a particular season. Educational campaigns with strategies for making the trip fun and ensuring that the appropriate clothing choices are made are also warranted in complementing built environment modifications.

  18. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean


    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  19. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin


    The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

  20. Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies (United States)

    Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul


    Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

  1. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN from a Geostationary Satellite.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Liu

    Full Text Available The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC; the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS; and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK, which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6. The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

  2. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite. (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei


    The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

  3. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.


    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  4. Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series (United States)

    Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.


    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

  5. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.


    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  6. The winter of 1827-1828 over eastern North America. A season of extraordinary climatic anomalies, societal impacts, and false spring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mock, C.J.; McWaters, M. [Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208 (United States); Mojzisek, J. [Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, (New Zealand); Chenoweth, M. [Independent Scholar, 6816 Ducketts Lane, Elkridge, MD, 21075 (United States); Stahle, D.W. [Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, 72701 (United States)


    This study reconstructed the weather and its impacts on society for the winter of 1827-1828, focusing on the eastern United States. Data comprise of daily and monthly instrumental records, diaries with both daily and seasonal resolution, newspapers, fur trapper accounts, and tree-rings. Temperature anomalies were calculated and mapped based on the means during the 1820-1840 period to account for different fixed observation times. Precipitation frequencies provided direct comparisons of the 1827-1828 weather with modern climatic normals. Daily plots of temperature also reveal weather variations at daily timeframes. Results indicate that the eastern United States experienced strong positive temperature anomalies that are among the most extreme known in the historical record, particularly its large spatial extent. In contrast, historical evidence reveals strong negative temperature anomalies over northwestern North America, and positive temperature anomalies are evident for coastal Alaska. These temperature anomaly patterns sharply contrast to what is normally experienced during a warm El Nino event. Furthermore, results clearly describe remarkable climatic impacts in the Southeast U.S., including widespread blossoming of fruit trees in mid-winter (false spring) that led to a widespread severe killing frost in early April of 1828. Widespread positive precipitation frequency anomalies are also evident for much of the Southeast U.S., which also played a prominent role on winter vegetation growth. Other weather events and impacts include unusual opening of river traffic in winter in New England, severe flooding in the Mississippi River Valley, and heavy snowfall in northwestern North America.

  7. Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Todor


    Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

  8. MicroRadarNet: A network of weather micro radars for the identification of local high resolution precipitation patterns (United States)

    Turso, S.; Paolella, S.; Gabella, M.; Perona, G.


    In this paper, MicroRadarNet, a novel micro radar network for continuous, unattended meteorological monitoring is presented. Key aspects and constraints are introduced. Specific design strategies are highlighted, leading to the technological implementations of this wireless, low-cost, low power consumption sensor network. Raw spatial and temporal datasets are processed on-board in real-time, featuring a consistent evaluation of the signals from the sensors and optimizing the data loads to be transmitted. Network servers perform the final post-elaboration steps on the data streams coming from each unit. Final network products are meteorological mappings of weather events, monitored with high spatial and temporal resolution, and lastly served to the end user through any Web browser. This networked approach is shown to imply a sensible reduction of the overall operational costs, including management and maintenance aspects, if compared to the traditional long range monitoring strategy. Adoption of the TITAN storm identification and nowcasting engine is also here evaluated for in-loop integration within the MicroRadarNet data processing chain. A brief description of the engine workflow is provided, to present preliminary feasibility results and performance estimates. The outcomes were not so predictable, taking into account relevant operational differences between a Western Alps micro radar scenario and the long range radar context in the Denver region of Colorado. Finally, positive results from a set of case studies are discussed, motivating further refinements and integration activities.

  9. Restoration of severely weathered wood (United States)

    R. Sam. Williams; Mark. Knaebe


    Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

  10. Weather delay costs to trucking. (United States)


    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  11. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  12. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  13. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  14. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan


    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  15. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle


    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  16. Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide. (United States)

    Keen, Richard A.

    The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

  17. Overview of climatic effects of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.; Malone, R.C.


    A general description of the climatic effects of a nuclear war are presented. This paper offers a short history of the subject, a discussion of relevant parameters and physical processes, and a description of plausible nuclear winter scenario. 9 refs

  18. Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef


    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  19. Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials (United States)

    Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher


    Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

  20. Analysis of Satellite AIS Data to Derive Weather Judging Criteria for Voyage Route Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michio Fujii


    Full Text Available The operational limitations are discussed at the IMO as a part of the second generation intact stability criteria. Since it is a first attempt to introduce operational efforts into safety regulations, comprehensive discussions are necessary to realize practically acceptable ones. Therefore this study investigates actual navigation routes of container ships and pure car carriers in the trans-North Pacific Ocean in winter, because they are prone to suffer significant parametric roll which is one of stability failure modes. Firstly, interviews are made to shipmasters who have experiences to have operated the subject ships to identify major elements for route selection in the North Pacific Ocean. Secondly, sufficient number of actual navigation records is collected from Satellite AIS data to derive the weather criteria for the route selection in severe weather condition. Finally, shipmaster’s on-board decision-making criteria are discussed by analysing the ship tracking data and weather data.

  1. Temporal Variability and Characterization of Aerosols across the Pakistan Region during the Winter Fog Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fahim Khokhar


    Full Text Available Fog is a meteorological/environmental phenomenon which happens across the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP and leads to significant social and economic problems, especially posing significant threats to public health and causing disruptions in air and road traffic. Meteorological stations in Pakistan provide limited information regarding fog episodes as these provide only point observations. Continuous monitoring, as well as a spatially coherent picture of fog distribution, is possible through the use of satellite observations. This study focuses on the 2012–2015 winter fog episodes over the Pakistan region using the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO products. The main objective of the study was to map the spatial distribution of aerosols, their types, and to identify the aerosol origins during special weather conditions like fog in Pakistan. The study also included ground monitoring of particulate matter (PM concentrations, which were conducted during the 2014–2015 winter period only. Overall, this study is part of a multi-country project supported by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD, started in 2014–2015 winter period, whereby scientists from Bangladesh, India and Nepal have also conducted measurements at their respective sites. A significant correlation between MODIS (AOD and AERONET Station (AOD data from Lahore was identified. Mass concentration of PM10 at all sampling sites within Lahore city exceeded the National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS levels on most of the occasions. Smoke and absorbing aerosol were found to be major constituents of winter fog in Pakistan. Furthermore, an extended span of winter fog was also observed in Lahore city during the winter of 2014–2015. The Vertical Feature Mask (VFM provided by CALIPSO satellite confirmed the low-lying aerosol

  2. Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature? (United States)

    Ma, Ying


    Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

  3. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013 (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.


    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  4. Numerical simulation of a winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013 (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.


    This study analyzes the cause of rare occurrence of winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options, hail or graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. On evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that hail option shows similar precipitation intensity with TRMM observation than the graupel option and is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model simulated output with hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached upto the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of WD. Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  5. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    KAUST Repository

    Chevuturi, A.


    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  6. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert) (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  7. Coming to grips with nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherr, S.J.


    This editorial examines the politics related to the concept of nuclear winter which is a term used to describe temperature changes brought on by the injection of smoke into the atmosphere by the massive fires set off by nuclear explosions. The climate change alone could cause crop failures and lead to massive starvation. The author suggests that the prospect of a nuclear winter should be a deterrent to any nuclear exchange

  8. Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.


    Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

  9. Winter Dew Harvest in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arias-Torres Jorge Ernesto


    Full Text Available This study presents experimental and theoretical results of winter dew harvest in México City in terms of condensation rate. A simplified theoretical model based on a steady-state energy balance on a radiator-condenser was fitted, as a function of the ambient temperature, the relative humidity and the wind velocity. A glass sheet and aluminum sheet white-painted were used as samples over the outdoor experiments. A good correlation was obtained between the theoretical and experimental data. The experimental results show that there was condensation in 68% of the winter nights on both condensers. The total winter condensed mass was 2977 g/m2 and 2888 g/m2 on the glass sheet and aluminum sheet white-painted, respectively. Thus, the condensed mass on the glass was only 3% higher than that on the painted surface. The maximum nightly dew harvests occurred during December, which linearly reduced from 50 g/m2 night to 22 g/m2 night as the winter months went by. The condensation occurred from 1:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m., with maximum condensation rates between 6:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. The dew harvest can provide a partial alternative to the winter water shortage in certain locations with similar climates to the winter in Mexico City, as long as pollution is not significant.

  10. New winter hardy winter bread wheat cultivar (Triticum aestivum L. Voloshkova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Л. М. Голик


    Full Text Available Creation of Initial raw for breeding of winter wheat by change of the development type under low temperatures influence was described. Seeds of spring wheat were vernalized in aluminum weighting bottle. By using low temperatures at sawing of M2-6 at the begin ind of optimal terms of sawing of winter wheat, new winter-hardy variety of Voloshkova was bred.

  11. Crop coefficients for winter wheat in a sub-humid climate regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærsgaard, Jeppe Hvelplund; Plauborg, Finn; Mollerup, Mikkel


    Estimations of evapotranspiration (ET) from natural surfaces are used in a large number of applications such as agricultural water management and water resources planning. Lack of reliable, cheap and easy-to-use instruments, associated with the chaotic and varying nature of the meteorological...... coefficients for a winter wheat crop growing under standard conditions, i.e. not short of water and growing under optimal agronomic conditions, were estimated for a cold sub-humid climate regime. One of the two methods used to estimate ET from a reference crop required net radiation (Rn) as input. Two sets...... of coefficients were used for calculating Rn. Weather data from a meteorological station was used to estimate Rn and ET from the reference crop. The winter wheat ET was measured using an eddy covariance system during the main parts of the growing seasons 2004 and 2005. The meteorological data and field...

  12. Desert heat island study in winter by mobile transect and remote sensing techniques (United States)

    Sun, Chen-Yi; Brazel, Anthony J.; Chow, Winston T. L.; Hedquist, Brent C.; Prashad, Lela


    A familiar problem in urban environments is the urban heat island (UHI), which potentially increases air conditioning demands, raise pollution levels, and could modify precipitation patterns. The magnitude and pattern of UHI effects have been major concerns of a lot of urban environment studies. Typically, research on UHI magnitudes in arid regions (such as Phoenix, AZ, USA) focuses on summer. UHI magnitudes in Phoenix (more than three million population) attain values in excess of 5°C. This study investigated the early winter period—a time when summer potential evapotranspiration >250 mm has diminished to 8.0°C, comparable to summertime UHI conditions. Through analysis of the Oke (1998) weather factor ΦW, it was determined thermally induced nighttime cool drainage winds could account for inflating the UHI magnitude in winter.

  13. Preparations for Severe Winter Conditions by Emergency Health Personnel in Turkey. (United States)

    Calışkan, Cüneyt; Algan, Aysun; Koçak, Hüseyin; Biçer, Burcu Küçük; Sengelen, Meltem; Cakir, Banu


    Emergency and core ambulance personnel work under all environmental conditions, including severe weather condtions. We evaluated emergency medical personnel in Çanakkale, Turkey, for their degree of preparedness. A descriptive study was conducted in Çanakkale, Turkey, within 112 emergency service units and their 17 district stations. Surveys were developed to measure the level of preparedness for serious winter conditions that individual workers made for themselves, their homes, and their cars. Of the 167 survey participants, the mean age was 29.8 ± 7.9 years; 52.7% were women; more than half (54.75%) were emergency medical technicians; and 53.3% were married. Only 10.4% of those who heated their homes with natural gas had carbon monoxide detectors. Scores relating to household and individual preparation for severe winter conditions increased by participants' age (P tires (P winter conditions (P = .016). Many of the surveyed emergency health personel demonstrated insufficient preparations for serious winter conditions. To increase the safety and efficiency of emergency medical personnel, educational training programs should be rountinely conducted. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4).

  14. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate. (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J


    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  15. Soil physical attributes in forms of sowing the annual winter pasture and intervals between grazing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milton da Veiga

    Full Text Available The sowing of winter pastures in areas used for summer grain production and their management under direct cattle grazing can cause changes in soil physical attributes, whose intensity depends on the degree of soil mobilization, grazing interval, stocking rate and weather. To study these aspects it was conducted over four years an experiment in a randomized block with split plots design and four replications. In the main plots were applied two forms of sowing the annual winter pasture (direct seeding and seeding + harrowing and, in the subplots, four intervals between grazing (7, 14 and 28 days and ungrazed. Undisturbed soil cores were sampled at the end of each grazing cycle, in the 0-0.05 m layer to determine the saturated hydraulic conductivity and aggregate stability and in the layers of 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.15 and 0.15-0.20 m depth to determine bulk density and classes of soil pores. The direct seeding of annual winter pasture increases hydraulic conductivity and reduces soil bulk density in relation to seeding + harrowing while dairy cows trampling increases soil density and reduces macroporosity in the most superficial soil layer. The variation in climatic conditions among grazing cycles affects the soil physical attributes more markedly than forms of sowing and intervals between grazing of the annual winter pasture.

  16. Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China (United States)

    Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.


    Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

  17. ALOS PALSAR Winter Coherence and Summer Intensities for Large Scale Forest Monitoring in Siberia (United States)

    Thiel, Christian; Thiel, Carolin; Santoro, Maurizio; Schmullius, Christiane


    In this paper summer intensity and winter coherence images are used for large scale forest monitoring. The intensities (FBD HH/HV) have been acquired during summer 2007 and feature the K&C intensity stripes [1]. The processing consisted of radiometric calibration, orthorectification, and topographic normalisation. The coherence has been estimated from interferometric pairs with 46-days repeat-pass intervals. The pairs have been acquired during the winters 2006/2007 and 2007/2008. During both winters suited weather conditions have been reported. Interferometric processing consisted of SLC co-registration at sub-pixel level, common-band filtering in range and azimuth and generation of a differential interferogram, which was used in the coherence estimation procedure based on adaptive estimation. All images were geocoded using SRTM data. The pixel size of the final SAR products is 50 m x 50 m. It could already be demonstrated, that by using PALSAR intensities and winter coherence forest and non-forest can be clearly separated [2]. By combining both data types hardly any overlap of the class signatures was detected, even though the analysis was conducted on pixel level and no speckle filter has been applied. Thus, the delineation of a forest cover mask could be executed operationally. The major hitch is the definition of a biomass threshold for regrowing forest to be distinguished as forest.

  18. A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Categorical Variables (United States)

    Huang, Laura X.; Isaac, George A.; Sheng, Grant


    This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0-6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.

  19. Relationships between the climate change and the grain filling of winter wheat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang, Z.; Jiang, D.


    The present study is based on the material in a grain filling rate experiment of winter wheat and hourly weather data organised by Xinghua city of Jiangsu Province. The aims are to objectively evaluate the possible influences of the temperature, precipitation, sunshine at the different time of the same day on the grain filling rate of winter wheat. The grain filling rate evaluation model of climate change is firstly developed, and then, the model calculation results are compared with the observed data. The along the changes of the microclimate, changes of the grain filling rate of winter wheat, which is not same in the gradual, rapid and slow increase stages. The changes in grain filling rate of winter wheat, which were caused by variations of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration, showed periodic fluctuation. Variation in temperature resulted in 1.36 g d/sup -1/(10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change; variation in precipitation resulted in -1.35 g d/sup -1/. (10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change; and variation in sunshine duration resulted in 0.07 g d/sup -1/ (10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change. Three samples showed a grain filling rate change of 0.08 g d/sup -1/(10a)/sup -1/. These findings indicate that the increase in temperature and sunshine duration caused the elevation of grain filling rate, whereas the increase in precipitation decreased the grain filling rate. Therefore, monitoring and predication capability of Meteorological disasters, such as drought caused by high temperature, should be strengthened to ensure the favourable weather condition and improve the grain filling rate through scientific methods such as artificial precipitation. (author)

  20. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  1. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities. (United States)


    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  2. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display (United States) Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  3. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  4. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework. (United States)


    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  5. World War II Weather Record Transmittances (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  6. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  7. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  8. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.


    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  9. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  10. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski


    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  11. Geochemical Weathering in Glacial and Proglacial Environments (United States)

    Tranter, M.


    solution, typically monitored by electrical conductivity, is often inverse with discharge on both a diurnal and a seasonal basis at lower latitudes, but ismore complex at higher latitudes (Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3). Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3 also show that the total flux of glacial solutes is usually dominated by fluxes associated with high discharge, dilute waters. The chemical weathering reactions that are inferred to occur from the field studies have been supported, in part, by controlled laboratory studies (e.g., Brown et al., 1993a). Recent stable-isotope studies have reported the key involvement of microbial processes in certain regions of the glacier bed ( Bottrell and Tranter, 2002), and these processes are yet to be incorporated in lab-based chemical weathering studies. (14K)Figure 1. (a) The temporal variation of discharge and in non-sea-salt calcium (*Ca2+) concentration in runoff from Haut Glacier d'Arolla, a small, warm-based, valley glacier in the Swiss Alps, during 1989 (Brown et al., 1993a). (b) The temporal variation in *Ca2+ flux from Haut Glacier d'Arolla during 1989. Maximum fluxes are associated with higher discharge waters. (9K)Figure 2. (a) The temporal variation of discharge (Q) and non-sea-salt *Ca2+ concentration in runoff from Manitsoq Glacier, a small outlet glacier on the SW margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet, during 1999. The glacier is warm based, but has a cold-based margin during the winter and early ablation season, so displays polythermal-based hydrological features (Skidmore et al., in preparation). (b) The temporal variation in *Ca2+ flux from Manitsoq Glacier during 1999. Maximum flux is associated with an early season "outburst" event, where longer stored subglacial water first exits the glacier. Otherwise, maximum fluxes are associated with higher discharge waters. (10K)Figure 3. (a) The temporal variation of discharge and *Ca2+ concentration in runoff from Scott Turnerbreen, a small, cold-based, valley glacier on

  12. Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm. (United States)

    Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.


    A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

  13. Winter barley mutants created in the Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zayats, O.M.


    Full text: Increasing fodder and protein production is one of the objectives of the development of agriculture in Ukraine. Higher productivity of fodder crops, due to new highly productive varieties, is the means to meet this aim. Winter barley is an important crop for fodder purposes. The climate of the Ukraine is favourable for growing this crop. The areas used for the growth of winter barley are however, small (500,000-550,000 ha) and there is a shortage of good quality varieties. The main aim of the work was therefore to create new varieties of highly productive winter barley, of good quality. The new varieties and mutation lines of winter barley were created under the influence of water solutions of N-nitroso-N-methylurea (NMH - 0,012, 0,005%), N-nitroso-N-ethylurea (NEH - 0,05; 0.025; 0,012%) ethyleneimine (EI - 0,02; 0,01; 0,005%) on winter barley seeds of the varieties of local and foreign selections. On the basis of many years of investigations (1984-94) the following mutations were described: hard-grained, winter-hardiness, earliness, middle-maturity, late-maturity, wide and large leaves, narrow leaves, multinodal, great number of leaves, great number of flowers, strong stem (lodging resistant), tallness, semi-dwarfness, dwarfness, and high productivity. Particularly valuable are mutants with high productivity of green bulk. Their potential yield is 70 t/ha. As a result of the work two varieties of winter barley 'Shyrokolysty' and 'Kormovy' were released into the State register of plant varieties of the Ukraine. The other valuable mutant genotypes are used in cross breeding programmes. (author)

  14. Mechanisms for chemostatic behavior in catchments: implications for CO2 consumption by mineral weathering (United States)

    Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa


    Concentrations of weathering products in streams often show relatively little variation compared to changes in discharge, both at event and annual scales. In this study, several hypothesized mechanisms for this “chemostatic behavior” were evaluated, and the potential for those mechanisms to influence relations between climate, weathering fluxes, and CO2 consumption via mineral weathering was assessed. Data from Loch Vale, an alpine catchment in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, indicates that cation exchange and seasonal precipitation and dissolution of amorphous or poorly crystalline aluminosilicates are important processes that help regulate solute concentrations in the stream; however, those processes have no direct effect on CO2 consumption in catchments. Hydrograph separation analyses indicate that old water stored in the subsurface over the winter accounts for about one-quarter of annual streamflow, and almost one-half of annual fluxes of Na and SiO2 in the stream; thus, flushing of old water by new water (snowmelt) is an important component of chemostatic behavior. Hydrologic flushing of subsurface materials further induces chemostatic behavior by reducing mineral saturation indices and increasing reactive mineral surface area, which stimulate mineral weathering rates. CO2 consumption by carbonic acid mediated mineral weathering was quantified using mass-balance calculations; results indicated that silicate mineral weathering was responsible for approximately two-thirds of annual CO2 consumption, and carbonate weathering was responsible for the remaining one-third. CO2 consumption was strongly dependent on annual precipitation and temperature; these relations were captured in a simple statistical model that accounted for 71% of the annual variation in CO2 consumption via mineral weathering in Loch Vale.

  15. Proceedings of the Canadian Institute's winter 2004/2005 conference on energy marketing strategies : proactively defend your energy portfolios from winter price spikes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This conference addressed the challenges facing energy markets with particular emphasis on the outlook of winter fuels and prices. It was attended by more than 50 energy marketing professionals representing petroleum producers, pipelines, wholesale marketers, storage companies, end users, banks and government. In order to plan portfolios and reduce risks to their bottom lines, buyers and sellers of energy must always be prepared for unexpected ice storms, major pipeline outages or geopolitical events. Merchants in the fuel supply chain depend on basic analysis, correlations and forecasts of supply/demand, transportation and inventory levels. The conference presented strategies and analysis on how commodity prices will move during the winter; North American supply/demand dynamics for natural gas, electricity, heating oils and natural gas liquids; the interplay of fuel storage and price; fuel switching and its impact on the market; portfolio planning; managing the link between weather and fuel prices; seasonal volatility; and, how liquefied natural gas (LNG) is affecting winter supply. The conference featured 16 presentations, of which 6 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  16. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu


    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  17. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather. (United States)


    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

  18. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar


    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  19. 36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection. (United States)


    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

  20. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.


    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

  1. Winter reduction in body mass in a very small, nonhibernating mammal: consequences for heat loss and metabolic rates. (United States)

    Taylor, Jan R E; Rychlik, Leszek; Churchfield, Sara


    Low temperatures in northern winters are energetically challenging for mammals, and a special energetic burden is expected for diminutive species like shrews, which are among the smallest of mammals. Surprisingly, shrews shrink their body size in winter and reduce body and brain mass, an effect known as Dehnel's phenomenon, which is suggested to lower absolute energy intake requirements and thereby enhance survival when food availability is low. Yet reduced body size coupled with higher body-surface-to-mass ratio in these tiny mammals may result in thermoregulatory heat production at a given temperature constituting a larger proportion of the total energy expenditure. To evaluate energetic consequences of reduced body size in winter, we investigated common shrews Sorex araneus in northeastern Poland. Average body mass decreased by 19.0% from summer to winter, and mean skull depth decreased by 13.1%. There was no difference in Dehnel's phenomenon between years despite different weather conditions. The whole-animal thermal conductance (proportional to absolute heat loss) in shrews was 19% lower in winter than in summer; the difference between the two seasons remained significant after correcting for body mass and was caused by improved fur insulation in winter. Thermogenic capacity of shrews, although much enhanced in winter, did not reach its full potential of increase, and this corresponded with relatively mild subnivean temperatures. These findings indicate that, despite their small body size, shrews effectively decrease their costs of thermoregulation. The recorded decrease in body mass from summer to winter resulted in a reduction of overall resting metabolic rate (in thermoneutrality) by 18%. This, combined with the reduced heat loss, should translate to food requirements that are substantially lower than would be the case if shrews did not undergo seasonal decrease in body mass.

  2. Cave breakdown by vadose weathering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osborne R. Armstrong L.


    Full Text Available Vadose weathering is a significant mechanism for initiating breakdown in caves. Vadose weathering of ore bodies, mineral veins, palaeokarst deposits, non-carbonate keystones and impure, altered or fractured bedrock, which is intersected by caves, will frequently result in breakdown. Breakdown is an active, ongoing process. Breakdown occurs throughout the vadose zone, and is not restricted to large diameter passages, or to cave ceilings. The surfaces of disarticulated blocks are commonly coated, rather than having fresh broken faces, and blocks continue to disintegrate after separating from the bedrock. Not only gypsum, but also hydromagnesite and aragonite are responsible for crystal wedging. It is impossible to study or identify potential breakdown foci by surface surveys alone, in-cave observation and mapping are essential.

  3. Examining winter visitor use in Yellowstone National Park (United States)

    Mae A. Davenport; Wayne A. Freimund; William T. Borrie; Robert E. Manning; William A. Valliere; Benjamin Wang


    This research was designed to assist the managers of Yellowstone National Park (YNP) in their decision making about winter visitation. The focus of this report is on winter use patterns and winter visitor preferences. It is the author’s hope that this information will benefit both the quality of winter experiences and the stewardship of the park resources. This report...

  4. Weather, Climate and Food Security (United States)

    Beer, T.


    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  5. Hydrologic applications of weather radar (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat


    By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

  6. Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergjord Olsen, A.K.; Persson, T.; Wit, de A.; Nkurunziza, L.; Sindhøj, E.; Eckersten, H.


    Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this

  7. Root development of fodder radish and winter wheat before winter in relation to uptake of nitrogen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wahlström, Ellen Margrethe; Hansen, Elly Møller; Mandel, A.


    occurred. Quantitative data is missing on N leaching of a catch crop compared to a winter cereal in a conventional cereal-based cropping system. The aim of the study was to investigate whether fodder radish (Raphanus sativus L.) (FR) would be more efficient than winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (WW...

  8. Risk management model of winter navigation operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A.; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub


    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. - Highlights: •A model to assess and manage the risk of winter navigation operations is proposed. •The risks of oil spills in winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland are analysed. •The model assesses and prioritizes actions to control the risk of the operations. •The model suggests navigational training as the most efficient risk control option.

  9. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis


    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  10. The engineering approach to winter sports

    CERN Document Server

    Cheli, Federico; Maldifassi, Stefano; Melzi, Stefano; Sabbioni, Edoardo


    The Engineering Approach to Winter Sports presents the state-of-the-art research in the field of winter sports in a harmonized and comprehensive way for a diverse audience of engineers, equipment and facilities designers, and materials scientists. The book examines the physics and chemistry of snow and ice with particular focus on the interaction (friction) between sports equipment and snow/ice, how it is influenced by environmental factors, such as temperature and pressure, as well as by contaminants and how it can be modified through the use of ski waxes or the microtextures of blades or ski soles. The authors also cover, in turn, the different disciplines in winter sports:  skiing (both alpine and cross country), skating and jumping, bob sledding and skeleton, hockey and curling, with attention given to both equipment design and on the simulation of gesture and  track optimization.

  11. Prevalence of operator fatigue in winter maintenance operations. (United States)

    Camden, Matthew C; Medina-Flintsch, Alejandra; Hickman, Jeffrey S; Bryce, James; Flintsch, Gerardo; Hanowski, Richard J


    Similar to commercial motor vehicle drivers, winter maintenance operators are likely to be at an increased risk of becoming fatigued while driving due to long, inconsistent shifts, environmental stressors, and limited opportunities for sleep. Despite this risk, there is little research concerning the prevalence of winter maintenance operator fatigue during winter emergencies. The purpose of this research was to investigate the prevalence, sources, and countermeasures of fatigue in winter maintenance operations. Questionnaires from 1043 winter maintenance operators and 453 managers were received from 29 Clear Road member states. Results confirmed that fatigue was prevalent in winter maintenance operations. Over 70% of the operators and managers believed that fatigue has a moderate to significant impact on winter maintenance operations. Approximately 75% of winter maintenance operators reported to at least sometimes drive while fatigued, and 96% of managers believed their winter maintenance operators drove while fatigued at least some of the time. Furthermore, winter maintenance operators and managers identified fatigue countermeasures and sources of fatigue related to winter maintenance equipment. However, the countermeasures believed to be the most effective at reducing fatigue during winter emergencies (i.e., naps) were underutilized. For example, winter maintenance operators reported to never use naps to eliminate fatigue. These results indicated winter maintenance operations are impacted by operator fatigue. These results support the increased need for research and effective countermeasures targeting winter maintenance operator fatigue. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Effects of interruptible natural gas service: Winter 1989--1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    During the extreme winter conditions experienced in December 1989, petroleum products showed dramatic price increases. Supply of certain products such as propane reached critical levels. Numerous factors contributed to the heating fuel situation, including well freeze-ups and refinery problems, as well as difficulties associated with delivery of the product. An area of concern identified in the ensuing debates was the impact of customer requirements for petroleum products resulting from curtailment of natural gas purchases under interruptible contracts. The lower rates associated with interruptible contracts make them an attractive choice for electric utilities. However, they require that the customer be prepared to obtain adequate fuel supplies in the event of curtailments. Electric utilities prepare for these contingencies with stocks of alternative fuels. Particularly in cold climates, interruptible has contracts are part of doing business. The extent and duration of the interruptions faced by customers relate principally to weather factors. Previous EIA studies investigated on a national level the causes of the dramatic price increases seen in petroleum product markets in the 1989--1990 heating season. This study is in response to a request from Senator Timothy Wirth, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Regulation and Conservation, to study in detail the impact of interruptible natural gas contracts as one of the factors cited as contributing to the price increases. A copy of the letter requesting the study is contained in Appendix A

  13. Dispersion of atmospheric air pollution in summer and winter season. (United States)

    Cichowicz, Robert; Wielgosiński, Grzegorz; Fetter, Wojciech


    Seasonal variation of air pollution is associated with variety of seasons and specificity of particular months which form the so-called summer and winter season also known as the "heating" season. The occurrence of higher values of air pollution in different months of a year is associated with the type of climate, and accordingly with different atmospheric conditions in particular months, changing state of weather on a given day, and anthropogenic activity. The appearance of these conditions results in different levels of air pollution characteristic for a given period. The study uses data collected during a seven-year period (2009-2015) in the automatic measuring station of immissions located in Eastern Wielkopolska. The analysis concerns the average and maximum values of air pollution (i.e., particulate matter PM10, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone) from the perspective of their occurrence in particular seasons and months or in relation to meteorological actors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed.

  14. [Winter sport injuries in childhood (author's transl)]. (United States)

    Hausbrandt, D; Höllwarth, M; Ritter, G


    3374 accidents occurring on the field of sport during the years 1975--1977 accounted for 19% of all accidents dealt with at the Institute of Kinderchirurgie in Graz. 51% of the accidents were caused by the typical winter sports: skiing, tobogganing, ice-skating and ski-jumping with skiing accounting for 75% of the accidents. The fracture localization typical of the different kinds of winter sport is dealt with in detail. The correct size and safety of the equipment were found to be particularly important in the prevention of such accidents in childhood.

  15. Mechanical weed control in organic winter wheat


    Euro Pannacci; Francesco Tei; Marcello Guiducci


    Three field experiments were carried out in organic winter wheat in three consecutive years (exp. 1, 2005-06; exp. 2, 2006- 07; exp. 3, 2007-08) in central Italy (42°57’ N - 12°22’ E, 165 m a.s.l.) in order to evaluate the efficacy against weeds and the effects on winter wheat of two main mechanical weed control strategies: i) spring tine harrowing used at three different application times (1 passage at T1, 2 passages at the time T1, 1 passage at T1 followed by 1 passage at T1 + 14 days) in t...

  16. Nuclear winter: The evidence and the risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, O.


    Global concern over nuclear extinction, centered on the holocaust itself, now has turned to the more terrifying consequences of a post-war nuclear winter: ''the long-term effects - destruction of the environment, spread of epidemic diseases, contamination by radioactivity, and ... collapse of agriculture-(that) would spread famine and death to every country.'' Nuclear Winter, the latest in a series of studies by a number of different groups is clinical, analytical, systematic, and detailed. Two physicists and biologist analyze the effects on the climate, plants, animals, and living systems; the human costs; the policy implications.

  17. Nuclear winter: The evidence and the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, O.


    Global concern over nuclear extinction, centered on the holocaust itself, now has turned to the more terrifying consequences of a post-war nuclear winter: ''the long-term effects - destruction of the environment, spread of epidemic diseases, contamination by radioactivity, and ... collapse of agriculture-[that] would spread famine and death to every country.'' Nuclear Winter, the latest in a series of studies by a number of different groups is clinical, analytical, systematic, and detailed. Two physicists and biologist analyze the effects on the climate, plants, animals, and living systems; the human costs; the policy implications

  18. Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations (United States)

    Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; hide


    Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management

  19. Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety (United States)

    Wedan, R. W.


    The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

  20. Probability for Weather and Climate (United States)

    Smith, L. A.


    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of