WorldWideScience

Sample records for winter weather nowcasting

  1. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safety During Fire Cleanup Wildfires PSAs Related Links Winter Weather About Winter Weather Before a Storm Prepare Your Home Prepare Your Car Winter Weather Checklists During a Storm Indoor Safety During ...

  2. Winter Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Centers Harwood Training Grants Videos E-Tools Winter Storms Plan. Equip. Train To prevent injuries, illnesses and Fatalities during winter storms. This page requires that javascript be enabled ...

  3. Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

    2014-01-01

    A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

  4. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health ... Although there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect ...

  5. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  6. Detecting weather radar clutter using satellite-based nowcasting products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas B.S.; Gill, Rashpal S.; Overgaard, Søren

    2006-01-01

    This contribution presents the initial results from experiments with detection of weather radar clutter by information fusion with satellite based nowcasting products. Previous studies using information fusion of weather radar data and first generation Meteosat imagery have shown promising results...... of the Danish Meteorological Institute has been extracted for cases of severe to moderate cases of land and sea clutter. For comparison, cases of clutter free data has also been analyzed. The satellite-based dataset used is an operational meteorological product developed within the 'Nowcasting Satellite...... Application Facility' of EUMETSAT and is based on multispectral images from the SEVIRI sensor of the Meteosat-8 platform. Of special interest is the 'Precipitating Clouds' product, which uses the spectral information coupled with surface temperatures from Numerical Weather Predictions to assign probabilities...

  7. Nowcasting lightning using weather radar and a new ice mass estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruzanski, Evan; Chandrasekar, Venkatachalam

    2017-04-01

    Lightning nowcasts are important for a number of applications and the range, resolution, and volumetric nature of weather radar observations are favorable for nowcasting lightning. Ice aloft, a key component in the atmospheric electrification process, can be estimated using weather radar data. This presentation describes a new model for estimating ice mass aloft and a method of nowcasting lightning activity using weather radar data. Previous research used a cell-based approach to lightning nowcasting and verification, where storm cells were first identified, lightning activity was associated with a particular cell, but lead times and lightning locations were not specified in the forecast. The new method described in this presentation takes a grid-based approach to lightning nowcasting and verification. This approach leverages spatial correlations and potentially complex interactions between storm cells and atmospheric scales. It also makes specific nowcasts in space and time. The new weather radar-based ice mass estimator uses a novel dynamic numerical optimization approach to reframe a simplified bulk microphysical model into a completely data-driven model. Preliminary results show that using this new model significantly improves nowcasts versus using the traditional weather radar-based ice mass estimator or lightning flash-rate density directly for nowcasting first-flash lightning occurrence. A novel verification approach is also described and used to assess this first-flash lightning nowcasting performance.

  8. Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Price

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, oftenresulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods,forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence,etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging stormscan be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF]sensors, to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sensors, and even global scales(using extremely low frequency [ELF] sensors. Using sensors that detect the radio wavesemitted by each lightning discharge, it is now possible to observe and track continuouslydistant thunderstorms using ground networks of sensors. In addition to the number oflightning discharges, these sensors can also provide information on lightningcharacteristics such as the ratio between intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, thepolarity of the lightning discharge, peak currents, charge removal, etc. It has been shownthat changes in some of these lightning characteristics during thunderstorms are oftenrelated to changes in the severity of the storms. In this paper different lightning observingsystems are described, and a few examples are provided showing how lightning may beused to monitor storm hazards around the globe, while also providing the possibility ofsupplying short term forecasts, called nowcasting.

  9. Combining weather radar nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models to estimate short-term quantitative precipitation and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, David Getreuer

    The topic of this Ph.D. thesis is short term forecasting of precipitation for up to 6 hours called nowcasts. The focus is on improving the precision of deterministic nowcasts, assimilation of radar extrapolation model (REM) data into Danish Meteorological Institutes (DMI) HIRLAM numerical weather...... prediction (NWP) model and produce quantitative estimations of nowcast uncertainty. In real time control of urban drainage systems, nowcasting is used to increase the margin for decision-making. The spatial extent of urban drainag e catchments is very small in a meteorological context. This is a problem...... by the relative standard deviation. A significant result of this Ph.D. study is major improvements in predictability of DMI HIRLAM NWP model by assimilation of REM data. A new nudging assimilation method developed at DMI was used to assimilate the REM data. The assimilation technique enhances convection in case...

  10. Doppler weather radar based nowcasting of cyclone Ogni

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of Oklahoma. We demonstrate the applicability of the various algorithms to Indian radar data, the improvement in the quality control and evaluate the benefit of nowcasting capabilities in Indian conditions. New information about the tropical cyclone structure, as derived from application of the algorithms is also discussed in ...

  11. Aspects of Applying Weather Radar Based Nowcast for Highways in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Quist, MIchael; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    nowcast can be used for two scenarios: 1) Safety - reduced visibility and possibility for aquaplaning can jeopardise the safety of the road users 2) Construction and maintenance - ensuring protection against flooding and pollution. The two different applications can represent two different precipitation......The Danish road network consists of 73.331 km. of roads. 3.790 km. of these roads are state roads and are considered as major lines of transportation. Although these roads only represent 5% of the total network, 45% of all traffic is moving along these roads. Application of weather radar based...... on the visibility, rain intensity and rain volume. This can actively be used to optimise basin volumes and to direct critical information to traffic. A system for nowcast dedicated to road applications are under development in Denmark. This paper investigates the different approaches in nowcasting of precipitation...

  12. INCA-CE: a Central European initiative in nowcasting severe weather and its applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kann, A.; Pistotnik, G.; Bica, B.

    2012-04-01

    The INCA-CE (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis - Central Europe) project aims at implementing a transnational weather information system as well as applications for different socio-economic sectors to reduce risks of major economic damage and loss of life caused by severe weather. Civil protection and also stakeholders from economic sectors are in a growing need of accurate and reliable short-term weather forecasts. Within INCA-CE, a state-of-the art nowcasting system (INCA) is implemented at weather services throughout the European Union's CE (Central Europe) Programme Area, providing analyses and short term forecasts to the aforementioned end-users. In a coherent approach, the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) system will be adapted for implementation and use in a number of partner countries. Within transregional working groups, the gap between short-term weather information and its downstream activities in hydrological disaster management, civil protection and road management will be bridged and best practice management and measure plans will be produced. A web-based platform for outreach to related socio-economic sectors will initiate and foster a dialogue between weather services and further stakeholders like tourism or the insurance sector, flood authorities for disaster management, and the construction industry for cost-efficient scheduling and planning. Furthermore, the project will produce a compact guideline for policy makers on how to combine structural development aspects with these new features. In the present paper, an outline of the project implementation, a short overview about the INCA system and two case studies on precipitation nowcasts will be given. Moreover, directions for further developments both within the INCA system and the INCA-CE project will be pointed out.

  13. Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.024 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-129-2007 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of

  14. Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

    OpenAIRE

    Colin Price

    2008-01-01

    Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, often resulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods, forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence, etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging storms can be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF] sensors), to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sens...

  15. Nowcasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, D. T.; Toth, G.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2015-12-01

    Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized B/t predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation describes the operational SWMF setup and summarizes the changes made to the code to enable R2O progress. The framework's algorithm for calculating ground-based magnetometer observations will be reviewed. Metrics from data-model comparisons will be reviewed to illustrate predictive capabilities. Early data products, such as regional-K index and grids of virtual magnetometer stations, will be presented. Finally, early successes will be shared, including the code's ability to reproduce the recent March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm.

  16. Aspects of Applying Weather Radar-Based Nowcasts of Rainfall for Highways in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Quist, M.

    2012-01-01

    This work investigates three different approaches to nowcasting rainfall for highways. The simplest method is based on using the observed precipitation field at the beginning of the trip. The most developed nowcast is based on a COTREC nowcaster, which is dynamically adjusted to online raingauges...

  17. A Numerical Method to Generate High Temporal Resolution Precipitation Time Series by Combining Weather Radar Measurements with a Nowcast Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    for vector field estimation already known from short-term weather radar nowcasting. However, instead of forecasting the weather radar rainfall, the proposed interpolation method exploits the advection of the rainfall in the interpolation. The interpolated rainfall fields are validated by measurements......The topic of this paper is temporal interpolation of precipitation observed by weather radars. Precipitation measurements with high spatial and temporal resolution are, in general, desired for urban drainage applications. An advection-based interpolation method is developed which uses methods...... at ground level from laser disdrometers. The proposed interpolation method performs better when compared to traditional interpolation of weather radar rainfall where the radar observation is considered constant in time between measurements. It is demonstrated that the advection-based interpolation method...

  18. Research on best practices for winter weather operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    There is a growing need to identify actionable practices relative to winter weather operations. Because of the : potential and inherent hazards during cold weather, it has become increasingly important to ensure that these : practices can be effectiv...

  19. Evaluation and Economic Value of Winter Weather Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Snyder, Derrick William

    2014-01-01

    State and local highway agencies spend millions of dollars each year to deploy winter operation teams to plow snow and de-ice roadways. Accurate and timely weather forecast information is critical for effective decision making. Students from Purdue University partnered with the Indiana Department of Transportation to create an experimental winter weather forecast service for the 2012-2013 winter season in Indiana to assist in achieving these goals. One forecast product, an hourly timeline of ...

  20. Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.

    2002-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

  1. Urban pluvial flood prediction: a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models as model inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-12-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events - especially in the future climate - it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically, both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper, radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 h leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on the small town of Lystrup in Denmark, which was flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with leadtimes more than half an hour.

  2. Domain-Level Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WREN) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    contaminant concentration fields resulting from atmospheric boundary layer depth uncertainty. J App Meteo Clim. 2014;53:2610–2626. Skamarock WC...Center for Atmospheric Research, which has developed a suite of Model Evaluation Tools (MET) to evaluate the accuracy of WRF forecasts. In this...Weather Impacts Decision Aid. WRF is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has developed a suite of Model Evaluation Tools

  3. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R

    2016-11-01

    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  4. Travel in adverse winter weather conditions by blind pedestrians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-31

    Winter weather creates many orientation and mobility (O&M) challenges for people who are visually impaired. Getting the cane tip stuck is one of the noticeable challenges when traveling in snow, particularly when the walking surface is covered in dee...

  5. Mapping wintering waterfowl distributions using weather surveillance radar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buler, Jeffrey J; Randall, Lori A; Fleskes, Joseph P; Barrow, Wylie C; Bogart, Tianna; Kluver, Daria

    2012-01-01

    The current network of weather surveillance radars within the United States readily detects flying birds and has proven to be a useful remote-sensing tool for ornithological study. Radar reflectivity measures serve as an index to bird density and have been used to quantitatively map landbird distributions during migratory stopover by sampling birds aloft at the onset of nocturnal migratory flights. Our objective was to further develop and validate a similar approach for mapping wintering waterfowl distributions using weather surveillance radar observations at the onset of evening flights. We evaluated data from the Sacramento, CA radar (KDAX) during winters 1998-1999 and 1999-2000. We determined an optimal sampling time by evaluating the accuracy and precision of radar observations at different times during the onset of evening flight relative to observed diurnal distributions of radio-marked birds on the ground. The mean time of evening flight initiation occurred 23 min after sunset with the strongest correlations between reflectivity and waterfowl density on the ground occurring almost immediately after flight initiation. Radar measures became more spatially homogeneous as evening flight progressed because birds dispersed from their departure locations. Radars effectively detected birds to a mean maximum range of 83 km during the first 20 min of evening flight. Using a sun elevation angle of -5° (28 min after sunset) as our optimal sampling time, we validated our approach using KDAX data and additional data from the Beale Air Force Base, CA (KBBX) radar during winter 1998-1999. Bias-adjusted radar reflectivity of waterfowl aloft was positively related to the observed diurnal density of radio-marked waterfowl locations on the ground. Thus, weather radars provide accurate measures of relative wintering waterfowl density that can be used to comprehensively map their distributions over large spatial extents.

  6. Winter Weather Tips: Understanding Alerts and Staying Safe this Season | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    By Jenna Seiss and Kylie Tomlin, Guest Writers, and Ashley DeVine, Staff Writer Maryland residents face the possibility of dangerous winter weather each year—from icy conditions to frigid temperatures. You may be familiar with the different types of winter weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), but do you know what each alert means?  

  7. Proactive approach to transportation resource allocation under severe winter weather emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Severe winter weather dramatically reduces road transportation infrastructure : serviceability and decreases safety throughout Oklahoma. Although it has relatively mild winters : when compared with northern regions of the United States, Oklahoma has ...

  8. Van Allen Probes Science Gateway: Single-Point Access to Long-Term Radiation Belt Measurements and Space Weather Nowcasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo, G.; Barnes, R. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.

    2017-12-01

    The Science Gateway gives single-point access to over 4.5 years of comprehensive wave and particle measurements from the Van Allen Probes NASA twin-spacecraft mission. The Gateway provides a set of visualization and data analysis tools including: HTML5-based interactive visualization of high-level data products from all instrument teams in the form of: line plots, orbital content plots, dynamical energy spectra, L-shell context plots (including two-spacecraft plotting), FFT spectra of wave data, solar wind and geomagnetic indices data, etc.; download custom multi-instrument CDF data files of selected data products; publication quality plots of digital data; combined orbit predicts for mission planning and coordination including: Van Allen Probes, MMS, THEMIS, Arase (ERG), Cluster, GOES, Geotail, FIREBIRD; magnetic footpoint calculator for coordination with LEO and ground-based assets; real-time computation and processing of empirical magnetic field models - computation of magnetic ephemeris, computation of adiabatic invariants. Van Allen Probes is the first spacecraft mission to provide a nowcast of the radiation environment in the heart of the radiation belts, where the radiation levels are the highest and most dangerous for spacecraft operations. For this purpose, all instruments continuously broadcast a subset of their science data in real time. Van Allen Probes partners with four foreign institutions who operate ground stations that receive the broadcast: Korea (KASI), the Czech republic (CAS), Argentina (CONAE), and Brazil (INPE). The SpWx broadcast is then collected at APL and delivered to the community via the Science Gateway.

  9. Verification of Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Forecasts Using a Spatial-Categorical Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) John W Raby 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7...forecast, verification, categorical forecast, weather impacts, thresholds, numerical weather prediction, observations, Model Evaluation Tools , MET...Unclassified c. THIS PAGE Unclassified 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 575-678-2004 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI

  10. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.

    2016-12-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n

  11. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

  12. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  13. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

    2018-03-13

    Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

  14. Weather-related indices of autumn–winter Dabbling Duck abundance in Middle North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael L. Schummer; Richard Kaminski; Andrew H. Raedeke; David A. Graber

    2010-01-01

    Research on effects of key weather stimuli influencing waterfowl migration during autumn and winter is limited. We investigated relationships between changes in relative abundances of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) and weather variables at midlatitude locations in North America. We used waterfowl survey data from Missouri Conservation...

  15. Potential use of weather radar to study movements of wintering waterfowl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Lori A.; Diehl, Robert H.; Wilson, Barry C.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Jeske, Clinton W.

    2011-01-01

    To protect and restore wintering waterfowl habitat, managers require knowledge of routine wintering waterfowl movements and habitat use. During preliminary screening of Doppler weather radar data we observed biological movements consistent with routine foraging flights of wintering waterfowl known to occur near Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Louisiana. During the winters of 2004–2005 and 2005–2006, we conducted field surveys to identify the source of the radar echoes emanating from Lacassine NWR. We compared field data to weather radar reflectivity data. Spatial and temporal patterns consistent with foraging flight movements appeared in weather radar data on all dates of field surveys. Dabbling ducks were the dominant taxa flying within the radar beam during the foraging flight period. Using linear regression, we found a positive log-linear relationship between average radar reflectivity (Z) and number of birds detected over the study area (P r2 = 0.62, n = 40). Ground observations and the statistically significant relationship between radar data and field data confirm that Doppler weather radar recorded the foraging flights of dabbling ducks. Weather radars may be effective tools for wintering waterfowl management because they provide broad-scale views of both diurnal and nocturnal movements. In addition, an extensive data archive enables the study of wintering waterfowl response to habitat loss, agricultural practices, wetland restoration, and other research questions that require multiple years of data.

  16. Twentieth Century Winter Changes in Southern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Modes

    OpenAIRE

    Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Frederiksen, Carsten S.

    2011-01-01

    During the last sixty years, there have been large changes in the southern hemisphere winter circulation and reductions in rainfall particularly in the southern Australian region. Here we examine the corresponding changes in dynamical modes of variability ranging from storm tracks, onset-of-blocking modes, northwest cloud-band disturbances, Antarctic low-frequency modes, intraseasonal oscillations, and African easterly waves. Our study is performed using a global two-level primitive equation ...

  17. Twentieth Century Winter Changes in Southern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorgen S. Frederiksen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last sixty years, there have been large changes in the southern hemisphere winter circulation and reductions in rainfall particularly in the southern Australian region. Here we examine the corresponding changes in dynamical modes of variability ranging from storm tracks, onset-of-blocking modes, northwest cloud-band disturbances, Antarctic low-frequency modes, intraseasonal oscillations, and African easterly waves. Our study is performed using a global two-level primitive equation instability-model with reanalyzed observed July three-dimensional basic states for the periods 1949–1968, 1975–1994, and 1997–2006. We relate the reduction in the winter rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia since the mid-1970s and in south-eastern Australia since the mid-1990s to changes in growth rate and structures of leading storm track and blocking modes. We find that cyclogenesis and onset-of-blocking modes growing on the subtropical jet have significantly reduced growth rates in the latter periods. On the other hand there is a significant increase in the growth rate of northwest cloud-band modes and intraseasonal oscillation disturbances that cross Australia and are shown to be related to recent positive trends in winter rainfall over northwest Western Australia and central Australia, in general. The implications of our findings are discussed.

  18. Winter weather versus group thermoregulation: what determines survival in hibernating mammals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, V P; Morrison, S F; Karels, T J; Hik, D S

    2013-09-01

    For socially hibernating mammals, the effectiveness of huddling as a means of energy conservation should increase with group size. However, group size has only been linked to increased survival in a few hibernating species, and the relative importance of social structure versus winter conditions during hibernation remains uncertain. We studied the influence of winter weather conditions, social group composition, age-structure, and other environmental factors and individual attributes on the overwinter survival of hoary marmots (Marmota caligata) in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Juvenile hoary marmot survival was negatively correlated with the mean winter (November to May) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. Survival in older age-classes was negatively correlated with PDO lagged by 1 year. Social group size and structure were weakly correlated with survival in comparison to PDO. The relationship between winter PDO and survival was most likely due to the importance of snowpack as insulation during hibernation. The apparent response of hoary marmots to changing winter conditions contrasted sharply with those of other marmot species and other mammalian alpine herbivores. In conclusion, the severity of winter weather may constrain the effectiveness of group thermoregulation in socially hibernating mammals.

  19. The impact of winter cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, João; Freire, Elisabete; Almendra, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases shows a seasonal trend that can be associated with cold weather. Portugal is the European country with the highest excess winter mortality, but nevertheless, the relationship between cold weather and health is yet to be assessed. The main aim of this study is to identify the contribution of cold weather to cardiovascular diseases within Portugal. Poisson regression analysis based on generalized additive models was applied to estimate the influence of a human-biometeorological index (PET) on daily hospitalizations for myocardial infarction. The main results revealed a negative effect of cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal. For every degree fall in PET during winter, there was an increase of up to 2.2% (95% CI = 0.9%; 3.3%) in daily hospital admissions. This paper shows the need for public policies that will help minimize or, indeed, prevent exposure to cold. -- Highlights: ► We model the relationship between daily hospitalizations due to myocardial infarctions and cold weather in Portugal. ► We use Physiological Equivalent temperature (PET) as main explanatory variable. ► We adjust the models to confounding factors such as influenza and air pollution. ► Daily hospitalizations increased up to 2.2% per degree fall of PET during winter. ► Exposure to cold weather has a negative impact on human health in Portugal. -- There is an increase of up to 2.2% in daily hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarctions per degree fall of thermal index during the winter months in Portugal

  20. Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royé, D.; Taboada, J. J.; Martí, A.; Lorenzo, M. N.

    2016-04-01

    The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

  1. Integrating nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational and interdisciplinary framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Wang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the recent WWRP/WMO Forecast Demonstration Project INCA-CE (INtegrating nowCAsting for Central Europe co-funded by the European Union. Twenty-four partners of national and regional hydro-meteorological services, national and regional crisis and disaster management centers, and authorities for road management world-wide have participated in INCA-CE for international cooperation on nowcasting development, interdisciplinary cooperation for nowcasting applications and transnational cooperation for nowcasting services. INCA-CE has implemented the nowcasting system INCA at the project partner countries, applied INCA nowcasting in civil protection, operational hydrology and road safety, and improved the INCA system based on the end user's requirements. The main difference to other similar projects is that end user's involvement and the improvements involve the whole end user value chain. The project has developed several ideas for end users on how to interpret nowcasting products (INCA-SWING and on how to deal with the nowcasting products in their working practice (INCA-MCPEX and ISW. INCA-CE is also oriented strongly to transnational cooperation in nowcasting development and implementation, in easy access to a homogenized set of nowcasting products from those INCA providers to end users in the region, and in the transnational use of real-time products by end users in cases of high impact weather across borders.

  2. Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

    2017-07-01

    Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Assimilation of radar-based nowcast into HIRLAM NWP model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, David Getreuer; Petersen, Claus; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2015-01-01

    The present study introduces a nowcast scheme that assimilates radar extrapolation data (RED) into a nowcasting version of the high resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model covering the area of Denmark. The RED are based on the Co-TREC (tracking radar echoes...... by correlation) methodology and are generated from cleaned radar mosaics from the Danish weather radar network. The assimilation technique is a newly developed method that increases model precipitation by increasing low-level convergence and decreasing convergence aloft in order to increase the vertical velocity...

  4. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.

    2017-10-01

    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  5. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.

    2018-03-01

    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  6. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Augusta A; Laird, Neil F

    2018-03-01

    This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s -1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s -1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s -1 , or 61 km h -1 . In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

  7. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  8. Assessment of weather-associated causes of red spruce winter injury and consequences to aboveground carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul G. Schaberg; Brynne E. Lazarus; Gary J. Hawley; Joshua M. Halman; Catherine H. Borer; Christopher F. Hansen

    2011-01-01

    Despite considerable study, it remains uncertain what environmental factors contribute to red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) foliar winter injury and how much this injury influences tree C stores. We used a long-term record of winter injury in a plantation in New Hampshire and conducted stepwise linear regression analyses with local weather and regional...

  9. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Jennifer A.; Chan, Weihan; Leathers, Daniel J.; Miller, James R.; Veron, Dana E.

    2009-04-01

    The dramatic decline in Arctic summer sea-ice cover is a compelling indicator of change in the global climate system and has been attributed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic effects. Through its role in regulating the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, ice loss is anticipated to influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. By combining satellite measurements of sea-ice extent and conventional atmospheric observations, we find that varying summer ice conditions are associated with large-scale atmospheric features during the following autumn and winter well beyond the Arctic's boundary. Mechanisms by which the atmosphere “remembers” a reduction in summer ice cover include warming and destabilization of the lower troposphere, increased cloudiness, and slackening of the poleward thickness gradient that weakens the polar jet stream. This ice-atmosphere relationship suggests a potential long-range outlook for weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.

  10. Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists’ Accidents in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Élise Lépy

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists’ health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2 Methods: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3 Results: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4 Conclusions: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change.

  11. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  12. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-01-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  13. Determining optimal clothing ensembles based on weather forecasts, with particular reference to outdoor winter military activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Pavlinic, Daniela Z; Crisci, Alfonso; Capecchi, Valerio; Orlandini, Simone; Mekjavic, Igor B

    2011-07-01

    Military and civil defense personnel are often involved in complex activities in a variety of outdoor environments. The choice of appropriate clothing ensembles represents an important strategy to establish the success of a military mission. The main aim of this study was to compare the known clothing insulation of the garment ensembles worn by soldiers during two winter outdoor field trials (hike and guard duty) with the estimated optimal clothing thermal insulations recommended to maintain thermoneutrality, assessed by using two different biometeorological procedures. The overall aim was to assess the applicability of such biometeorological procedures to weather forecast systems, thereby developing a comprehensive biometeorological tool for military operational forecast purposes. Military trials were carried out during winter 2006 in Pokljuka (Slovenia) by Slovene Armed Forces personnel. Gastrointestinal temperature, heart rate and environmental parameters were measured with portable data acquisition systems. The thermal characteristics of the clothing ensembles worn by the soldiers, namely thermal resistance, were determined with a sweating thermal manikin. Results showed that the clothing ensemble worn by the military was appropriate during guard duty but generally inappropriate during the hike. A general under-estimation of the biometeorological forecast model in predicting the optimal clothing insulation value was observed and an additional post-processing calibration might further improve forecast accuracy. This study represents the first step in the development of a comprehensive personalized biometeorological forecast system aimed at improving recommendations regarding the optimal thermal insulation of military garment ensembles for winter activities.

  14. Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

    2009-12-01

    Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial

  15. Predictability of winter Pacific weather regimes and its connections with MJO on medium-range timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsueda, Mio; Palmer, Tim

    2017-04-01

    A weather regime is a persistent and/or recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern which is associated with specific weather conditions on a regional scale. Accurate simulations of weather regimes are important in weather and climate. The predictability of weather regimes over the North Pacific (20-80N, 120E-60W) at medium-range timescales (up to 384hr) are investigated for extended winters (November-March) in 2006/07-2013/14 and 1985/86-2013/14 using the The Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) and NOAA's second-generation global medium-range ensemble reforecast datasets, respectively. The TIGGE portals quasi-operationally provide 9 medium-range ensemble forecasts routinely operated at Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centres. We focus on five of the leading operational NWP centres: CMC (Canada), ECMWF (EU), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), and UKMO (UK). Pacific trough (PATR), the positive and negative phases of PNA (PNA+ and PNA-), Pacific blocking (PABL), and Alaskan blocking (ALBL) are detected as wintertime weather regimes over the Pacific region from the ERA-Interim data. The frequency of PATR (PNA-, PABL and ALBL) is significantly increased (decreased) during El Nino months. The NWP models have common biases in the frequency of regime transitions, and therefore the models prefer PATR and PNA- to the other regimes with lead time. Verification of probabilistic Pacific regime forecasts reveals that the forecasts made by state-of-the-art models are useful up to a lead time of 15-16 days on average and that their skills are higher than those of probabilistic Euro-Atlantic regime forecasts. Probabilistic PATR and PABL forecasts show higher skills than the other probabilistic regime forecasts. Probabilistic regime forecasts initialised from PNA- show higher skills than those from the other regimes. ECMWF generally shows the best probabilistic skills, followed by UKMO. In addition, tropical-midlatitude teleconnections during the Madden-Julian Oscillation

  16. The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

  17. Improved nowcasting of precipitation based on convective analysis fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Haiden

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The high-resolution analysis and nowcasting system INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis developed at the Austrian national weather service provides three-dimensional fields of temperature, humidity, and wind on an hourly basis, and two-dimensional fields of precipitation rate in 15 min intervals. The system operates on a horizontal resolution of 1 km and a vertical resolution of 100–200 m. It combines surface station data, remote sensing data (radar, satellite, forecast fields of the numerical weather prediction model ALADIN, and high-resolution topographic data. An important application of the INCA system is nowcasting of convective precipitation. Based on fine-scale temperature, humidity, and wind analyses a number of convective analysis fields are routinely generated. These fields include convective boundary layer (CBL flow convergence and specific humidity, lifted condensation level (LCL, convective available potential energy (CAPE, convective inhibition (CIN, and various convective stability indices. Based on the verification of areal precipitation nowcasts it is shown that the pure translational forecast of convective cells can be improved by using a decision algorithm which is based on a subset of the above fields, combined with satellite products.

  18. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, Josef; Thaler, S.; Schmid, E.; Strauss, F.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Saylan, L.; Çaldag, B.; Caylak, O.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 6 (2013), s. 813-835 ISSN 0021-8596 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : crop models * weather conditions * winter wheat * Austria Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.891, year: 2013

  19. Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus winter mortality in The Netherlands : The effect of severe weather and food supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Camphuysen, CJ; Ens, B.J.; Heg, Dierik; Hulscher, JB; VanderMeer, J; Smit, CJ

    1996-01-01

    Wintering Oystercatchers in The Netherlands are concentrated in the Wadden Sea (c. 200 000), with substantial numbers in the Delta area (c. 90 000). Only 1% of the total wintering population is normally found along the North Sea coast. Cold-rushes under severe winter conditions lead to a reduction

  20. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  1. A nowcast-forecast information system for PWS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, G.L.; Cox, W.

    2000-01-01

    The development of the Prince William Sound Oil Spill Recovery Institute's (ORI) nowcast-forecast information system was discussed. OSRI addresses oil spill response and prevention research and development in the Arctic and subArctic. A realistic electronic model of the ecosystem was a much needed tool for efficient prioritization of oil spill technologies. The OSRI Sound Ecosystem Assessment (SEA) research program focused on developing a physical-biological model that consisted of static and biological resources that change over long time periods. This includes bathymetry, shoreline type, and substrate-dependent vegetation. It also focused on developing a model of dynamic properties such as wind, weather, plankton, and wildlife populations that undergo significant changes on annual or shorter time scales. The nowcast information system is a long-term development project which uses the Princeton ocean model (POM), a static runoff model, a network of weather and water observation stations, an Intranet which allows the observational data to run in near-real time and an Internet home page. It will contribute to sustaining the natural resources of coastal areas. It was concluded that the nowcast-forecast information system has short-term applications to oil spill prevention and response and long-term applications to the natural resources at risk to spills. 33 refs

  2. Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert Roberdeau

    2017-01-01

    outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...... temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal...

  3. Nowcasting wind power for grid operation at RWE Transportnetz from Strom GmbH (RWE TSO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ernst, B.; Vanzetta, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presented new methods of balancing power supply and demand for electricity systems that have a large share of wind power. Wind power forecasting plays a key role in integrating a large share of wind power into an electricity system, as it links the weather dependent production with the scheduled production of conventional power plants and the forecast of the electricity demand. Wind power forecasts are essential for grid operation. Since most European electricity markets focus on the day ahead market, wind balancing is also done the day ahead. A current trend is that the intra day markets are increasing in popularity and becoming more liquid. Therefore, nowcasting will play a vital role in improving wind power related economics because shorter timeframes are much easier and better to predict. Nowcasting uses actual measurements of weather and also considers power data. Many wind power prediction tools for day ahead forecasts are available. Most models have 3 common steps, notably numerical weather prediction, wind-to-power model and regional up-scaling. A comparison between recent measurements with the output of numerical weather models showed that nowcasting provides a forecast that outperforms a pure numerical weather forecast. The first results were very promising. All 3 nowcasting solutions were found to have their own unique advantages and limitations. Ongoing research will continue to improve wind power prediction. 2 refs., 3 figs

  4. Spatial and temporal variation in weather events critical for boreal agriculture: III Frost and winter time fluctuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the boreal zone of Europe, differences between the four seasons are considerable. Also, the within-season variation in climatic conditions is substantial. This has many impacts on agriculture that are exceptional when compared to any other environmental zone in Europe. All the meteorological data were based on weather observations made by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Likelihood (% for soil frost (≤ 0 °C at 20 cm soil depth at nine weather stations, and late snow cover (> 1 cm (10 km × 10 km grid were estimated for late spring. Probabilities (% of night frost at the ground surface (March-September were calculated at nine weather stations by frequencies of the lowest observed night-time temperature: a between –2 and –5 °C (mild, b ≤ –5 °C (moderate and c ≤ –9 °C (severe. Also, the probabilities (% of night frost in mid-summer were estimated (≤ –1 °C for at least five hours. Furthermore, a significant shift from mild to below-freezing conditions was measured in winter as a period of at least ten days with daily maximum temperatures above 0°C followed by at least a 10-day period with daily mean temperatures below –5°C in order to characterize high fluctuating winter conditions. All these except late snow cover constitute high risks to crop production. Deep soil frost may postpone sowings, while in advanced springs, night frost may cause damage. For winter crops and perennials, shifts from mild to cold spells outside the growing season are particularly detrimental. Again the data may have many other applications beyond the assessments highlighted in this paper.

  5. Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

  6. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  7. Nowcasting daily minimum air and grass temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Site-specific and accurate prediction of daily minimum air and grass temperatures, made available online several hours before their occurrence, would be of significant benefit to several economic sectors and for planning human activities. Site-specific and reasonably accurate nowcasts of daily minimum temperature several hours before its occurrence, using measured sub-hourly temperatures hours earlier in the morning as model inputs, was investigated. Various temperature models were tested for their ability to accurately nowcast daily minimum temperatures 2 or 4 h before sunrise. Temperature datasets used for the model nowcasts included sub-hourly grass and grass-surface (infrared) temperatures from one location in South Africa and air temperature from four subtropical sites varying in altitude (USA and South Africa) and from one site in central sub-Saharan Africa. Nowcast models used employed either exponential or square root functions to describe the rate of nighttime temperature decrease but inverted so as to determine the minimum temperature. The models were also applied in near real-time using an open web-based system to display the nowcasts. Extrapolation algorithms for the site-specific nowcasts were also implemented in a datalogger in an innovative and mathematically consistent manner. Comparison of model 1 (exponential) nowcasts vs measured daily minima air temperatures yielded root mean square errors (RMSEs) <1 °C for the 2-h ahead nowcasts. Model 2 (also exponential), for which a constant model coefficient ( b = 2.2) was used, was usually slightly less accurate but still with RMSEs <1 °C. Use of model 3 (square root) yielded increased RMSEs for the 2-h ahead comparisons between nowcasted and measured daily minima air temperature, increasing to 1.4 °C for some sites. For all sites for all models, the comparisons for the 4-h ahead air temperature nowcasts generally yielded increased RMSEs, <2.1 °C. Comparisons for all model nowcasts of the daily grass

  8. Terrestrial ecosystem nowcasts and forecasts for North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemani, R. R.; Votava, P.; Michaelis, A.; Ichii, K.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Dungan, J.; White, M.

    2006-12-01

    Understanding and predicting changes in carbon cycling of landscapes and adjacent oceans are important goals for the North American Carbon Program (NACP). Achieving these goals requires integration of a number of data sources that are both point-based and spatially explicit, as in the case of satellite data, and models to produce ecosystem fluxes at a variety of spatio-temporal scales. Here we show an adaptation of our data and modeling system, the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) over North America to operationally produce nowcasts (daily) and forecasts (up to 7 days) of ecosystem fluxes including gross and net primary production and net ecosystem exchange. TOPS is a software system designed to seamlessly integrate data from satellite, aircraft, and ground sensors, and weather/climate models with application models to quickly and reliably produce operational nowcasts and forecasts of ecological conditions. The underlying technologies in TOPS are: 1) Ecosystem models of a variety of flavors ranging from process-based models that use satellite-derived inputs along with surface climate data, weather/climate forecasts to empirical models that rely on historical relationships between climate and ecological phenomenon such as fire risk, disease/pest outbreaks, etc.; 2) Planning and scheduling that facilitate a goal-based data collection and pre-processing so that all the necessary information is available in the required format for a given model run; and 3) Causality analysis and model generation using advances in data mining and machine learning. Nowcasts and forecasts are continuously evaluated using observations from diverse networks: SNOTEL for snow cover, USGS/Streamflow for runoff, USDA/SCAN for soil moisture, GLOBE for phenology and FLUXNET for carbon/water fluxes. Model parameters are optimized based on the spatio-temporal biases identified during model evaluation

  9. Design and management of public health outreach using interoperable mobile multimedia: an analysis of a national winter weather preparedness campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Bandera

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts outreach for public preparedness for natural and manmade incidents. In 2011, OPHPR conducted a nationwide mobile public health (m-Health campaign that pushed brief videos on preparing for severe winter weather onto cell phones, with the objective of evaluating the interoperability of multimedia m-Health outreach with diverse cell phones (including handsets without Internet capability, carriers, and user preferences. Methods Existing OPHPR outreach material on winter weather preparedness was converted into mobile-ready multimedia using mobile marketing best practices to improve audiovisual quality and relevance. Middleware complying with opt-in requirements was developed to push nine bi-weekly multimedia broadcasts onto subscribers’ cell phones, and OPHPR promoted the campaign on its web site and to subscribers on its govdelivery.com notification platform. Multimedia, text, and voice messaging activity to/from the middleware was logged and analyzed. Results Adapting existing media into mobile video was straightforward using open source and commercial software, including web pages, PDF documents, and public service announcements. The middleware successfully delivered all outreach videos to all participants (a total of 504 videos regardless of the participant’s device. 54 % of videos were viewed on cell phones, 32 % on computers, and 14 % were retrieved by search engine web crawlers. 21 % of participating cell phones did not have Internet access, yet still received and displayed all videos. The time from media push to media viewing on cell phones was half that of push to viewing on computers. Conclusions Video delivered through multimedia messaging can be as interoperable as text messages, while providing much richer information. This may be the only multimedia mechanism available to outreach campaigns

  10. Skill assessment of precipitation nowcasting in Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Very short-term precipitation forecasting (i.e nowcasting) systems may provide valuable support in the weather surveillance process as they allow to issue automated early warnings for heavy precipitation events (HPE) as reviewed recently by Pierce et al. (2012). The need for warnings is essential in densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean coastal areas, prone to flash-floods. Several HPEs that occurred in NE Spain are analyzed using a nowcasting system based on the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011). Radar-based nowcasts, with lead times up to 3 h, are verified here against quality-controlled weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates and also against a dense network of raingauges. The basic questions studied are the dependence of forecast quality with lead time and rainfall amounts in several high-impact HPEs such as the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) - both cases had intense rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and daily values above 100 mm. Verification scores indicated that forecasts of 30' precipitation amounts provided useful guidance for lead times up to 60' for moderate intensities (up to 1 mm in 30') and up to 2.5h for lower rates (above 0.1 mm). On the other hand correlations of radar estimates and forecasts exceeded Eulerian persistence of precipitation estimates for lead times of 1.5 h for moderate intensities (up to 0.8 mm/h). We complete the analysis with a discussion on the reliability of threshold to lead time dependence based on the event-to-event variability found. This work has been done in the framework of the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M

  11. Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Planchon

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray. The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.

  12. Visual Analysis for Nowcasting of Multidimensional Lightning Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Peters

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Globally, most weather-related damages are caused by thunderstorms. Besides floods, strong wind, and hail, one of the major thunderstorm ground effects is lightning. Therefore, lightning investigations, including detection, cluster identification, tracking, and nowcasting are essential. To enable reliable decisions, current and predicted lightning cluster- and track features as well as analysis results have to be represented in the most appropriate way. Our paper introduces a framework which includes identification, tracking, nowcasting, and in particular visualization and statistical analysis of dynamic lightning data in three-dimensional space. The paper is specifically focused on enabling users to conduct the visual analysis of lightning data for the purpose of identification and interpretation of spatial-temporal patterns embedded in lightning data, and their dynamics. A graphic user interface (GUI is developed, wherein lightning tracks and predicted lightning clusters, including their prediction certainty, can be investigated within a 3D view or within a Space-Time-Cube. In contrast to previous work, our approach provides insight into the dynamics of past and predicted 3D lightning clusters and cluster features over time. We conclude that an interactive visual exploration in combination with a statistical analysis can provide new knowledge within lightning investigations and, thus, support decision-making in weather forecast or lightning damage prevention.

  13. Realizing User-Relevant Conceptual Model for the Ski Jump Venue of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teakles, Andrew; Mo, Ruping; Dierking, Carl F.; Emond, Chris; Smith, Trevor; McLennan, Neil; Joe, Paul I.

    2014-01-01

    As was the case for most other Olympic competitions, providing weather guidance for the ski jump and Nordic combined events involved its own set of unique challenges. The extent of these challenges was brought to light before the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics during a series of outflow wind events in the 2008/2009 winter season. The interactions with the race officials during the difficult race conditions brought on by the outflows provided a new perspective on the service delivery requirements for the upcoming Olympic Games. In particular, the turbulent nature of the winds and its impact on the ski jump practice events that season highlighted the need of race officials for nowcasting advice at very short time scales (from 2 min to 1 h) and forecast products tailored to their decision-making process. These realizations resulted in last minute modifications to the monitoring strategy leading up to the Olympic Games and required forecasters' conceptual models for flow within the Callaghan Valley to be downscaled further to reflect the evolution of turbulence at the ski jump site. The SNOW-V10 (Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010) team provided support for these efforts by supplying diagnostic case analyses of important events using numerical weather data and by enhancing the real-time monitoring capabilities at the ski jump venue.

  14. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  15. Nowcasting and forecasting of lightning activity: the Talos project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagouvardos, Kostas; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Kazadzis, Stelios; Giannaros, Theodore; Karagiannidis, Athanassios; Galanaki, Elissavet; Proestakis, Emmanouil

    2015-04-01

    Thunder And Lightning Observing System (TALOS) is a research program funded by the Greek Ministry of Education with the aim to promote excellence in the field of lightning meteorology. The study focuses on exploring the real-time observations provided by the ZEUS lightning detection system, operated by the National Observatory of Athens since 2005, as well as the 10-year long database of the same system. More precisely the main research issues explored are: - lightning climatology over the Mediterranean focusing on lightning spatial and temporal distribution, on the relation of lightning with topographical features and instability and on the importance of aerosols in lightning initiation and enhancement. - nowcasting of lightning activity over Greece, with emphasis on the operational aspects of this endeavour. The nowcasting tool is based on the use of lightning data complemented by high-time resolution METEOSAT imagery. - forecasting of lightning activity over Greece based on the use of WRF numerical weather prediction model. - assimilation of lightning with the aim to improve the model precipitation forecast skill. In the frame of this presentation the main findings of each of the aforementioned issues are highlighted.

  16. Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Wang-chun

    2013-04-01

    The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user

  17. Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Skripniková, Kateřina

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 May (2016), s. 66-76 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P701 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : hail * numerical weather prediction * COSMO * nowcasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809515003968

  18. Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Michael; Schummer, Michael; Zhong, Yafang; Vavrus, Stephen; Van Den Elsen, Lena; Coluccy, John; Hoving, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

  19. Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Notaro

    Full Text Available Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

  20. Winter Weather Response Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has been given statutory authority for the : planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the State Highway System. With : few new highways being constructed, the operation and maintenan...

  1. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... whenever you feel too warm. Also, avoid getting gasoline or alcohol on your skin while de-icing ... body begins to lose heat faster than it’s produced. Lengthy exposures will eventually use up your body’s ...

  2. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Take Action Be careful when using wood stoves, fireplaces, or space heaters to heat your home. Avoid ... If you plan to use a wood stove, fireplace, or space heater, be extremely careful. Follow the ...

  3. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... powered radio with extra batteries Flashlight with extra batteries Water Snack food Extra hats, coats, and mittens Blankets Chains or rope Tire chains Canned compressed air with sealant for emergency tire repair Road salt and sand to help tires get traction Booster ...

  4. Visual Analytics approach for Lightning data analysis and cell nowcasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Stefan; Meng, Liqiu; Betz, Hans-Dieter

    2013-04-01

    Thunderstorms and their ground effects, such as flash floods, hail, lightning, strong wind and tornadoes, are responsible for most weather damages (Bonelli & Marcacci 2008). Thus to understand, identify, track and predict lightning cells is essential. An important aspect for decision makers is an appropriate visualization of weather analysis results including the representation of dynamic lightning cells. This work focuses on the visual analysis of lightning data and lightning cell nowcasting which aim to detect and understanding spatial-temporal patterns of moving thunderstorms. Lightnings are described by 3D coordinates and the exact occurrence time of lightnings. The three-dimensionally resolved total lightning data used in our experiment are provided by the European lightning detection network LINET (Betz et al. 2009). In all previous works, lightning point data, detected lightning cells and derived cell tracks are visualized in 2D. Lightning cells are either displayed as 2D convex hulls with or without the underlying lightning point data. Due to recent improvements of lightning data detection and accuracy, there is a growing demand on multidimensional and interactive visualization in particular for decision makers. In a first step lightning cells are identified and tracked. Then an interactive graphic user interface (GUI) is developed to investigate the dynamics of the lightning cells: e.g. changes of cell density, location, extension as well as merging and splitting behavior in 3D over time. In particular a space time cube approach is highlighted along with statistical analysis. Furthermore a lightning cell nowcasting is conducted and visualized. The idea thereby is to predict the following cell features for the next 10-60 minutes including location, centre, extension, density, area, volume, lifetime and cell feature probabilities. The main focus will be set to a suitable interactive visualization of the predicted featured within the GUI. The developed visual

  5. Status of the Polar Engineering Development Center's (PEDC) Open-Closed Boundary Synoptic Nowcast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, A. J.; Kim, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present the most recent Polar Engineering Development Center (PEDC) developments, specifically the first magnetic-field open-closed boundary (OCB) determination scheme. This scheme is implemented in "near real time" and utilizes data from an array of fluxgate magnetometers that are distributed across the high Antarctic plateau, as per Urban et al. [2012]. This OCB determination enables a high-latitude, synoptic measure of space weather variability that provides for more regional determinations of particle precipitation and related impacts. This methodology therefore supplements exciting "index-based" or empically-based space weather nowcasts currently in use.

  6. Brightness temperature nowcasting for satellite-based short-term prediction of storms: opportunities and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Huaqing; Kuligowski, Robert; Lee, Gyuwon; Rehak, Nancy; Cunning, Gary; Albo, David; Megenhardt, Daniel; Steiner, Matthias

    2008-08-01

    Satellite-based brightness temperature observations are used in a wide range of applications for monitoring weather systems over land and especially over water, including short-term prediction of the evolution of weather systems. Results are presented from an evaluation of three extrapolation-based nowcasting procedures to predict satellitebased brightness temperatures up to 3 hours into the future. Analyses are based on using METEOSAT-8 Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) data as a proxy for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be flown on the next-generation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R series.

  7. Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

    2016-12-01

    An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

  8. Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 101, March (2014), s. 272-282 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : sunshine number * nowcasting * generalized additive model * Markov chain Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.469, year: 2014

  9. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

    1989-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  10. A nowcasting technique based on application of the particle filter blending algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuanzhao; Lan, Hongping; Chen, Xunlai; Zhang, Wenhai

    2017-10-01

    To improve the accuracy of nowcasting, a new extrapolation technique called particle filter blending was configured in this study and applied to experimental nowcasting. Radar echo extrapolation was performed by using the radar mosaic at an altitude of 2.5 km obtained from the radar images of 12 S-band radars in Guangdong Province, China. The first bilateral filter was applied in the quality control of the radar data; an optical flow method based on the Lucas-Kanade algorithm and the Harris corner detection algorithm were used to track radar echoes and retrieve the echo motion vectors; then, the motion vectors were blended with the particle filter blending algorithm to estimate the optimal motion vector of the true echo motions; finally, semi-Lagrangian extrapolation was used for radar echo extrapolation based on the obtained motion vector field. A comparative study of the extrapolated forecasts of four precipitation events in 2016 in Guangdong was conducted. The results indicate that the particle filter blending algorithm could realistically reproduce the spatial pattern, echo intensity, and echo location at 30- and 60-min forecast lead times. The forecasts agreed well with observations, and the results were of operational significance. Quantitative evaluation of the forecasts indicates that the particle filter blending algorithm performed better than the cross-correlation method and the optical flow method. Therefore, the particle filter blending method is proved to be superior to the traditional forecasting methods and it can be used to enhance the ability of nowcasting in operational weather forecasts.

  11. Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti

    2014-01-01

    An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

  12. Doppler weather Radar based Nowcasting of cyclone Ogni

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    DWR) data from cyclone Ogni using a suite of radar algorithms as implemented on NEXRAD and the advanced algorithms developed jointly by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the University of Oklahoma. We demonstrate the ...

  13. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eitzinger, J; Thaler, S; Schmid, E

    2013-01-01

    the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing...

  14. Colonisation of winter wheat grain by Fusarium spp. and mycotoxin content as dependent on a wheat variety, crop rotation, a crop management system and weather conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaban, Janusz; Wróblewska, Barbara; Sułek, Alicja; Mikos, Marzena; Boguszewska, Edyta; Podolska, Grażyna; Nieróbca, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted during three consecutive growing seasons (2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10) with four winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars - 'Bogatka', 'Kris', 'Satyna' and 'Tonacja' - grown on fields with a three-field crop rotation (winter triticale, spring barley, winter wheat) and in a four-field crop rotation experiment (spring wheat, spring cereals, winter rapeseed, winter wheat). After the harvest, kernels were surface disinfected with 2% NaOCl and then analysed for the internal infection by different species of Fusarium. Fusaria were isolated on Czapek-Dox iprodione dichloran agar medium and identified on the basis of macro- and micro-morphology on potato dextrose agar and synthetic nutrient agar media. The total wheat grain infection by Fusarium depended mainly on relative humidity (RH) and a rainfall during the flowering stage. Intensive rainfall and high RH in 2009 and 2010 in the period meant the proportions of infected kernels by the fungi were much higher than those in 2008 (lack of precipitation during anthesis). Weather conditions during the post-anthesis period changed the species composition of Fusarium communities internally colonising winter wheat grain. The cultivars significantly varied in the proportion of infected kernels by Fusarium spp. The growing season and type of crop rotation had a distinct effect on species composition of Fusarium communities colonising the grain inside. A trend of a higher percentage of the colonised kernels by the fungi in the grain from the systems using more fertilisers and pesticides as well as the buried straw could be perceived. The most frequent species in the grain were F. avenaceum, F. tricinctum and F. poae in 2008, and F. avenaceum, F. graminearum, F. tricinctum and F. poae in 2009 and 2010. The contents of deoxynivalenol and zearalenon in the grain were correlated with the percentage of kernels colonised by F. graminearum and were the highest in 2009 in the grain from the four

  15. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2018-04-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  16. From short term power forecasting to nowcasting - Benefiting from meteorological forecasts and measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mey, Britta; Braun, Axel; Good, Garrett; Vogt, Stephan; Wessel, Arne; Dobschinski, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Today, wind and solar power forecasts with time horizons from zero to about three hours are essential for the reliable grid and market integration of wind and solar energy. With respect to closure times of German intra-day markets, power forecasts with time horizons of about one to two hours and an update frequency of 15 minutes are required for final trading activities, reducing the uncertainty of the day-ahead forecast of the previous day. Regarding grid security aspects, grid operators utilize such forecasts to create continuous intra-day grid congestion forecasts. In addition to these preventive measures, wind and solar power become more and more important for the provision of ancillary services by wind and solar farm operators. This use case mainly requires power forecasts with time horizons of less than one hour. In general, forecasts with time horizons below three hours are investigated within the nowcasting research area. Nowcasting models are mainly based on current observations and extrapolation methods. With respect to wind and solar power forecasts with horizons of up to three hours, it has been shown in studies that real-time power measurements have the highest information content as compared to other potential model input parameters. We will present results from studies focusing on the benefit of meteorological data (forecasts and/or measurements) in the field of solar and wind power forecasts with time horizons of up to a few hours. Wind farm forecast errors are for example reduced by using numerical weather prediction (NWP) data in the wind power prediction model along with real-time wind farm power measurements. Furthermore, spatially distributed NWP data in combination with German total wind power measurements helped in the reduction of extreme forecast errors. By using global radiation forecasts as an input for wind power forecasts, forecast error during sunrise and sunset could be reduced. In the field of German total solar power, nowcasting

  17. Exploring the severe winter haze in Beijing: the impact of synoptic weather, regional transport and heterogeneous reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guangjie; Su, Hang; zhang, qiang; cheng, yafang; he, kebin

    2016-04-01

    Extreme haze episodes repeatedly shrouded Beijing during the winter of 2012-2013, causing major environmental and health problems. To better understand these extreme events, we performed a model-assisted analysis of the hourly observation data of PM2.5 and its major chemical compositions. The synthetic analysis shows that, (1) the severe winter haze was driven by stable synoptic meteorological conditions over northeastern China, and not by an abrupt increase in anthropogenic emissions. (2) Secondary species, including organics, sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium, were the major constituents of PM2.5 during this period. (3) Due to the dimming effect of high loading of aerosol particles, gaseous oxidant concentrations decreased significantly, suggesting a reduced production of secondary aerosols through gas phase reactions. Surprisingly, the observational data reveals an enhanced production rate of secondary aerosols, suggesting an important contribution from other formation pathways, most likely heterogeneous reactions. These reactions appeared to be more efficient in producing secondary inorganics aerosols than organic aerosols resulting in a strongly elevated fraction of inorganics during heavily polluted periods. (4) Moreover, we found that high aerosol concentration was a regional phenomenon. The accumulation process of aerosol particles occurred successively from southeast cities to Beijing. The apparent sharp increase in PM2.5 concentration of up to several hundred μg m-3 per hour recorded in Beijing represented rapid recovery from an interruption to the continuous pollution accumulation over the region, rather than purely local chemical production. This suggests that regional transport of pollutants played an important role during these severe pollution events.

  18. On the performance of the new NWP nowcasting system at the Danish Meteorological Institute during a heavy rain period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Petersen, Claus

    2015-01-01

    in the vertical profile of horizontal divergence needed to induce the observed rain rate. Verification of precipitation forecasts for a 17-day period in August 2010 based on the NWP nowcasting system is presented and compared to a reference without assimilation of precipitation data. In Denmark, this period...... was particularly rainy, with several heavy precipitation events. Three of these events are studied in detail. The verification is mainly based on scatter plots and fractions skill scores, which give scale-dependant indicators of the spatial skill of the forecasts. The study shows that the inclusion......At the Danish Meteorological Institute, the NWP nowcasting system has been enhanced to include assimilation of 2D precipitation rates derived from weather radar observations. The assimilation is performed using a nudging-based technique. Here the rain rates are used to estimate the changes...

  19. Validation of spatially resolved all sky imager derived DNI nowcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Pascal; Wilbert, Stefan; Schüler, David; Prahl, Christoph; Haase, Thomas; Ramirez, Lourdes; Zarzalejo, Luis; Meyer, Angela; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Blanc, Philippe; Dubrana, Jean; Kazantzidis, Andreas; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Hirsch, Tobias; Pitz-Paal, Robert

    2017-06-01

    Mainly due to clouds, Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) displays short-term local variabilities affecting the efficiency of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. To enable efficient plant operation, DNI nowcasts in high spatial and temporal resolutions for 15 to 30 minutes ahead are required. Ground-based All Sky Imagers (ASI) can be used to detect, track and predict 3D positions of clouds possibly shading the plant. The accuracy and reliability of these ASI-derived DNI nowcasts must be known to allow its application in solar power plants. Within the framework of the European project DNICast, an ASI-based nowcasting system was developed and implemented at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA). Its validation methodology and validation results are presented in this work. The nowcasting system outperforms persistence forecasts for volatile irradiance situations.

  20. Improving quantitative precipitation nowcasting with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter radar data assimilation system: observing system simulation experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chien Tsai

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a Doppler radar data assimilation system, which couples the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The benefits of this system to quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN are evaluated with observing system simulation experiments on Typhoon Morakot (2009, which brought record-breaking rainfall and extensive damage to central and southern Taiwan. The results indicate that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity observations improves the three-dimensional winds and rain-mixing ratio most significantly because of the direct relations in the observation operator. The patterns of spiral rainbands become more consistent between different ensemble members after radar data assimilation. The rainfall intensity and distribution during the 6-hour deterministic nowcast are also improved, especially for the first 3 hours. The nowcasts with and without radar data assimilation have similar evolution trends driven by synoptic-scale conditions. Furthermore, we carry out a series of sensitivity experiments to develop proper assimilation strategies, in which a mixed localisation method is proposed for the first time and found to give further QPN improvement in this typhoon case.

  1. Convection diagnosis and nowcasting for oceanic aviation applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessinger, Cathy; Donovan, Michael; Bankert, Richard; Williams, Earle; Hawkins, Jeffrey; Cai, Huaqing; Rehak, Nancy; Megenhardt, Daniel; Steiner, Matthias

    2008-08-01

    An oceanic convection diagnosis and nowcasting system is described whose domain of interest is the region between the southern continental United States and the northern extent of South America. In this system, geostationary satellite imagery are used to define the locations of deep convective clouds through the weighted combination of three independent algorithms. The resultant output, called the Convective Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO) product, is independently validated against space-borne radar and lighting products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to ascertain the ability of the CDO to discriminate hazardous convection. The CDO performed well in this preliminary investigation with some limitations noted. Short-term, 1-hr and 2-hr nowcasts of convection location are performed within the Convective Nowcasting Oceanic (CNO) system using a storm tracker. The CNO was found to have good statistical performance at extrapolating existing storm positions. Current work includes the development and implementation of additional atmospheric features for nowcasting convection initiation and to improve nowcasting of mature convection evolution.

  2. Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2014-05-01

    Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

  3. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  4. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... heat lamp, or the heat of a stove, fireplace, or radiator for warming. Affected areas are numb ... If you plan to use a wood stove, fireplace, or space heater, be extremely careful. Follow the ...

  5. Measurements for winter road maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Riehm, Mats

    2012-01-01

    Winter road maintenance activities are crucial for maintaining the accessibility and traffic safety of the road network at northerly latitudes during winter. Common winter road maintenance activities include snow ploughing and the use of anti-icing agents (e.g. road salt, NaCl). Since the local weather is decisive in creating an increased risk of slippery conditions, understanding the link between local weather and conditions at the road surface is critically important. Sensors are commonly i...

  6. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter season ... can affect your heart, especially if you have cardiovascular disease . Some people who are outdoors in cold weather ...

  7. Satellite-based technique for nowcasting of thunderstorms over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Suman Goyal

    2017-08-31

    120 min forecast and longitudinal error varies from 34.1 to 90.2 km for. 30–120 min forecast. Hence there is longitudinal bias in the forecast track of the MCS. 4. Conclusions. The satellite based nowcast technique developed.

  8. Satellite-based technique for nowcasting of thunderstorms over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    India experiences severe thunderstorms during the months, March–June. But these systems are not predicted well, mainly due to the absence of mesoscale observational network over Indian region and the expert system. As these are short lived systems, the nowcast is attempted worldwide based on satellite and radar ...

  9. Tools for PV (photovoltaic) plant operators: Nowcasting of passing clouds

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.; Brabec, Marek

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 54, č. 1 (2013), s. 104-112 ISSN 0360-5442 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : PV (photovoltaic) plants * Sunshine number * Nowcasting * ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 4.159, year: 2013

  10. Space weather: the importance of observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Sophie A.

    2014-09-01

    Most space weather occurs due to solar eruptions (coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares), which can affect the environment in near-Earth space. Modern society is ever more dependent upon ground-based and spaceborne technology that can be vulnerable to space weather. It is important to have long-running, continuous observations for space-weather forecasting, nowcasting, and research. A meeting organised jointly by the Royal Meteorological Society and Royal Astronomical Society took place at Imperial College, London on 13 November 2013. This public meeting addressed the current deficiency in observations and how this might be overcome.

  11. An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey; Chronis, Themis

    2015-01-01

    Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

  12. Probabilistic hydrological nowcasting using radar based nowcasting techniques and distributed hydrological models: application in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletti, Maria Laura; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola; Silvestro, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    The exposure of the urban areas to flash-floods is particularly significant to Mediterranean coastal cities, generally densely-inhabited. Severe rainfall events often associated to intense and organized thunderstorms produced, during the last century, flash-floods and landslides causing serious damages to urban areas and in the worst events led to human losses. The temporal scale of these events has been observed strictly linked to the size of the catchments involved: in the Mediterranean area a great number of catchments that pass through coastal cities have a small drainage area (less than 100 km2) and a corresponding hydrologic response timescale in the order of a few hours. A suitable nowcasting chain is essential for the on time forecast of this kind of events. In fact meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation at the scale of these events, small both at spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. Nowcasting models, covering the time interval of the following two hours starting from the observation try to extend the predictability limits of the forecasting models in support of real-time flood alert system operations. This work aims to present the use of hydrological models coupled with nowcasting techniques. The nowcasting model PhaSt furnishes an ensemble of equi-probable future precipitation scenarios on time horizons of 1-3 h starting from the most recent radar observations. The coupling of the nowcasting model PhaSt with the hydrological model Continuum allows to forecast the flood with a few hours in advance. In this way it is possible to generate different discharge prediction for the following hours and associated return period maps: these maps can be used as a support in the decisional process for the warning system.

  13. Very-short range forecasting system for 2018 Pyeonchang Winter Olympic and Paralympic games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Ji-Eun; Park, Kyungjeen; Kim, Minyou; Kim, Changhwan; Joo, Sangwon

    2016-04-01

    The 23rd Olympic Winter and the 13th Paralympic Winter Games will be held in Pyeongchang, Republic of Korea respectively from 9 to 25 February 2018 and from 9 to 18 February 2018. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the National Institute for Meteorological Science (NIMS) have the responsibility to provide weather information for the management of the Games and the safety of the public. NIMS will carry out a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) and a Research and Development Project (RDP) which will be called ICE-POP 2018. These projects will focus on intensive observation campaigns to understand severe winter weathers over the Pyeongchang region, and the research results from the RDP will be used to improve the accuracy of nowcasting and very short-range forecast systems during the Games. To support these projects, NIMS developed Very-short range Data Assimilation and Prediction System (VDAPS), which is run in real time with 1 hour cycling interval and up to 12 hour forecasts. The domain is covering Korean Peninsular and surrounding seas with 1.5km horizontal resolution. AWS, windprofiler, buoy, sonde, aircraft, scatwinds, and radar radial winds are assimilated by 3DVAR on 3km resolution inner domain. The rain rate is converted into latent heat and initialized via nudging. The visibility data are also assimilated with the addition of aerosol control variable. The experiments results show the improvement in rainfall over south sea of Korean peninsula. In order to reduce excessive rainfalls during first 2 hours due to the reduced cycling interval, the data assimilation algorithm is optimized.

  14. 3D soil water nowcasting using electromagnetic conductivity imaging and the ensemble Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jingyi; McBratney, Alex B.; Minasny, Budiman; Triantafilis, John

    2017-06-01

    Mapping and immediate forecasting of soil water content (θ) and its movement can be challenging. Although inversion of apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) measured by electromagnetic induction to calculate depth-specific electrical conductivity (σ) has been used, it is difficult to apply it across a field. In this paper we use a calibration established along a transect, across a 3.94-ha field with varying soil texture, using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to monitor and nowcast the 3-dimensional θ dynamics on 16 separate days over a period of 38 days. The EnKF combined a physical model fitted with θ measured by soil moisture sensors and an Artificial Neural Network model comprising σ generated by quasi-3d inversions of DUALEM-421S ECa data. Results showed that the distribution of θ was controlled by soil texture, topography, and vegetation. Soil water dried fastest at the beginning after the initial irrigation event and decreased with time and soil depth, which was consistent with classical soil drying theory and experiments. It was also found that the soil dried fastest in the loamy and duplex soils present in the field, which was attributable to deep drainage and preferential flow. It was concluded that the EnKF approach can be used to improve the irrigation efficiency by applying variable irrigation rates across the field. In addition, soil water status can be nowcasted across large spatial extents using this method with weather forecast information, which will provide guidance to farmers for real-time irrigation management.

  15. Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2006-01-01

    A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

  16. The measured study of natural weathering performance of reflective thermal insulation coating in hot-summer and warm-winter region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhao; Dafu, Weng; Jie, Gu; Binbin, Li

    2017-11-01

    In order to study the attenuation performance of solar direct reflectance of reflective thermal insulation coating under natural weathering, we conducted a measured study on five coatings with the built natural weathering platform. After the 18-month natural weathering experiments, the color of coating templets turn undertint or black with coating layer pulverized and fallen off, some of the templets starting to crack, fall off and go mouldy. Meanwhile, the reflectance ratio of reflective thermal insulation coating decreased significantly after 3 to 6 months, the degree of attenuation of the five templets is 2% to 28%. After 18 months’ exposure to the blazing sun, the most significant degree of attenuation reached 46%. The solar direct reflectance of coating templet of the same brand remained high as before after natural weathering with an initial high solar direct reflectance

  17. Nowcasting Mobile Games Ranking Using Web Search Query Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoones A. Sekhavat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Internet has become embedded into the purchasing decision of consumers. The purpose of this paper is to study whether the Internet behavior of users correlates with their actual behavior in computer games market. Rather than proposing the most accurate model for computer game sales, we aim to investigate to what extent web search query data can be exploited to nowcast (contraction of “now” and “forecasting” referring to techniques used to make short-term forecasts (predict the present status of the ranking of mobile games in the world. Google search query data is used for this purpose, since this data can provide a real-time view on the topics of interest. Various statistical techniques are used to show the effectiveness of using web search query data to nowcast mobile games ranking.

  18. Nowcasting of 1-h precipitation using radar and NWP data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 328, 1-2 (2006), s. 200-211 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/04/0114; GA AV ČR IBS3042101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * Regression models * Nowcasting * Radar Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.117, year: 2006

  19. Nowcasting Intraseasonal Recreational Fishing Harvest with Internet Search Volume.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Carter

    Full Text Available Estimates of recreational fishing harvest are often unavailable until after a fishing season has ended. This lag in information complicates efforts to stay within the quota. The simplest way to monitor quota within the season is to use harvest information from the previous year. This works well when fishery conditions are stable, but is inaccurate when fishery conditions are changing. We develop regression-based models to "nowcast" intraseasonal recreational fishing harvest in the presence of changing fishery conditions. Our basic model accounts for seasonality, changes in the fishing season, and important events in the fishery. Our extended model uses Google Trends data on the internet search volume relevant to the fishery of interest. We demonstrate the model with the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery where the recreational sector has exceeded the quota nearly every year since 2007. Our results confirm that data for the previous year works well to predict intraseasonal harvest for a year (2012 where fishery conditions are consistent with historic patterns. However, for a year (2013 of unprecedented harvest and management activity our regression model using search volume for the term "red snapper season" generates intraseasonal nowcasts that are 27% more accurate than the basic model without the internet search information and 29% more accurate than the prediction based on the previous year. Reliable nowcasts of intraseasonal harvest could make in-season (or in-year management feasible and increase the likelihood of staying within quota. Our nowcasting approach using internet search volume might have the potential to improve quota management in other fisheries where conditions change year-to-year.

  20. Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: tools and methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stamper, R.; Belehaki, A.; Burešová, Dalia; Cander, Lj. R.; Kutiev, I.; Pietrella, M.; Stanislawska, I.; Stankov, S.; Tsagouri, I.; Tulunay, J. K.; Zolesi, B.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 47, 2/3 (2004), s. 957-981 ISSN 1593-5213. [Final Meeting COST271 Action. Effects of the upper atmosphere on terrestrial and Earth-space communications (EACOS). Abingdon, 26.08.2004-27.08.2004] R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 271.10 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : ionospheric measurements * nowcasting * forecasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.413, year: 2004

  1. An operational approach to the nowcasting of an intense thunderstorm over Liguria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gallino

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the period between late spring and early summer as well as in autumn, the Mediterranean is often affected by rapid development of intense convective systems. In some cases the operational NWP models are able to provide good indication of occurrence of such severe weather events (potential instability conditions but often location and intensity of convective precipitation are poorly forecasted. The approach of "PV-thinking" revealed itself as a good tool to identify favorable conditions for triggering such systems, partially filling this lack of information and supporting meteorologists in the very short range weather forecast. Moreover, the advanced use of data provided by SEVIRI channels onboard MSG satellite, makes possible an effective application of the PV approach, improving forecast skill also in areas where local effects are not well described by the models and/or by the data assimilation. The aim of this work is to show how the application of the MSG tools together with the PV philosophy helps in the diagnosis and nowcasting of intense thunderstorms triggered by tropopause, with particular attention to a case of intense convection over northwestern Italy during spring 2005.

  2. Thunderstorm nowcasting by means of lightning and radar data: algorithms and applications in northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bonelli

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Thunderstorms and their ground effects, such as flash floods, hail, lightning, strong winds, and tornadoes, are responsible for most weather damages in northern Italy, especially in the warm season from May to September. A nowcasting and warning system focused on severe thunderstorm events would be useful to reduce risks for people involved in outside activities and for electric, telecommunication, and sensitive industrial business. C-band radar and Lighting Location Systems provide useful, fast and high resolution data for the detection of convective systems and for following their dynamics. The whole of northern Italy is covered by radar with a resolution of 1 km and by a lightning network with a mean accuracy of 0.5 km on the single point of impact. The authors present an algorithm developed for tracking high intensity storm cells by means of radar and lightning data. Application to northern Italy reveals that tracking thunderstorm cells can be used as an alert system that may help prevent damages from extreme weather, as well as allowing for studying the correlation among lightning, rainfall and tornado occurrence. Assessing the algorithm skill is also discussed, and a forecast verification method is described and applied for the duration of a thunderstorm season.

  3. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance

  4. Nowcasting the lightning activity in Peninsular Malaysia using the GPS PWV during the 2009 inter-monsoons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayan Suparta

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial and temporal radio wave delay of the Global Positioning System (GPS signal can be manipulated to estimate the precipitable water vapor (PWV which favorable for meteorological applications. A rapid change of the water vapor amount was a precondition for the unbalanced atmospheric charges, which noticeably associated with the development of convective cloud as a lightning chamber. According to this fact, GPS derived PWV will be utilized to nowcasting the lightning event for the next couple of hours. The variances of PWV of four-selected station of the Peninsular Malaysia during the past two inter-monsoons events in May and November 2009 were analyzed. To clarify the response, the changes of PWV in hourly Δ (max-min before the lightning event was investigated with minimum value 2 mm and is maintained at least three consecutive hours. There are 177 samples were extracted from this method and 69% of the sample showed the lightning occurrence with an average duration was after the six consecutive hours. The lightning day with 2 mm Δ was also higher than the fair weather of 6.3%. These findings suggest that the GPS data can be proposed further as a guide to nowcast the occurrence of lightning activity.

  5. A new regional RADAR network for nowcasting applications: the RESMAR achievements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonini, Andrea; Melani, Samantha; Mazza, Alessandro; Ortolani, Alberto; Gozzini, Bernardo; Corongiu, Manuela; Cristofori, Simone

    2013-04-01

    Monitoring weather phenomena from radar has an essential role in nowcasting applications. As one of the most useful sources of quantitative precipitation estimation, rainfall radar analysis can be a very useful research tool in supporting methods for rainfall forecasting. Its short-term prediction is often needed in various meteorological and hydrological applications where accurate prediction of rainfall is essential from national service and civil protection forecasting up to agriculture and urban issues. Very recently, Tuscany region (central Italy) is equipped with two X-band radars with a maximum range of 108 km, a beam width of 3° and a high spatial resolution (i.e., radial resolution up to 90m), located in Livorno and Cima del Monte (Elba island) sites. The first system is property of Livorno's port Authority, the second one of Consorzio LaMMA (Laboratory of Monitoring and Environmental Modelling for the sustainable development) who has installed it in the framework of "RESMAR - Environmental Resources in the MARitime Space" activities, a strategic project, financed in the framework of the European Cross-Border Cooperation Programme Italy-France "Maritime", coordinated by the Liguria Region Administration. Both systems are managed by LaMMA. The cross-border sharing of such relevant meteorological observation instruments and the integration of these data with existing tools and methodologies is intended to improve operational regional weather services in nowcasting activities and their impacts on the territory, as those related to LaMMA daily issues. This sharing is widely promoted within RESMAR project between the different partner regions (ARPA-Sardinia, Meteo-France and Liguria). The integration of these data with other complementary and ancillary measurements is also needed to increase the reliability and accuracy of radar measurements in view of both a better meteorological phenomena understanding and quantitative precipitation estimation. The use of

  6. The use of products from ground-based GNSS observations in meteorological nowcasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terradellas, E.; Callado, A.; Pascual, R.; Téllez, B.

    2009-09-01

    Heavy rainfall is often focalized in areas of moisture convergence. A close relationship between precipitation and fast variations of vertically-integrated water vapour (IWV) has been found in numerous cases. Furthermore, a latency of several tens of minutes of the precipitation relative to a rapid increase of the water vapour contents appears to be a common truth. Therefore, continuous monitoring of atmospheric humidity and its spatial distribution is crucial to the operational forecaster for a proper nowcasting of heavy rainfall events. Radiosonde releases yield measurements of atmospheric humidity, but they are very sparse and present a limited time resolution of 6 to 12 hours. The microwave signals continuously broadcasted by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) satellites are influenced by the water vapour as they travel through the atmosphere to ground-based receivers. The total zenith delay (ZTD) of these signals, a by-product of the geodetic processing, is already operationally assimilated into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and has positive impact on the prediction of precipitation events, as it has been reported after the analysis of parallel runs. Estimates of IWV retrieved from ground-based GNSS observations may also constitute a source of information on the horizontal distribution and the time evolution of atmospheric humidity that can be presented to the forecaster. Several advantages can be attributed to the ground-based GNSS as a meteorological observing system. First, receiving networks can be built and maintained at a relatively low cost, which it can, additionally, be shared among different users. Second, the quality of the processed observations is insensitive to the weather conditions and, third, the temporal resolution of its products is very high. On the other hand, the current latency of the data disposal, ranging between one and two hours, is acceptable for the NWP community, but appears to be excessive for nowcasting

  7. K-type geomagnetic index nowcast with data quality control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Warnant

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available

    A nowcast system for operational estimation of a proxy K-type geomagnetic index is presented. The system is based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition that includes screening of the dataset and removal of the outliers, estimation of the solar regular variation (SR of the geomagnetic field, calculation of the index, and issuing of an alert if storm-level activity is indicated. This is a time-controlled (rather than event-driven system that delivers the regular output of: the index value, the estimated quality flag, and eventually, an alert. The novel features provided are first, the strict control of the data input and processing, and second, the increased frequency of production of the index (every 1 h. Such quality control and increased time resolution have been found to be of crucial importance for various applications, e.g. ionospheric monitoring, that are of particular interest to us and to users of our service. The nowcast system operability, accuracy and precision have been tested with instantaneous measurements from recent years. A statistical comparison between the nowcast and the definitive index values shows that the average root-mean-square error is smaller than 1 KU. The system is now operational at the site of the Geophysical Centre of the Royal Meteorological Institute in Dourbes (50.1ºN, 4.6ºE, and it is being used for alerting users when geomagnetic storms take place.

  8. Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: supporting databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The use of data is essential in the context of nowcasting, forecasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions, with roles to play in the development, evaluation and operation of models and services. Descriptions are given of three databases that have been established in the course of the COST 271 Action: a database of prompt ionospheric soundings, an extension to a database generated by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radars, and a database intended to facilitate evaluation of TEC estimation methods. Each database includes some background information, a description of the contents and interface, and instructions as to how to gain access to it.

  9. Irrigation as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: The Relative Influence of Groundwater and Canal Irrigation on Winter Crop Production and its Sensitivity to Weather Variability in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Fishman, R.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; Naeem, S.; Modi, V.; DeFries, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    India is a hotspot for food security issues over the upcoming decades, due to increasing population pressures, groundwater depletion, and climate change. Investing in additional irrigation infrastructure may bolster food security, however, the relative influence of different types of irrigation (e.g. groundwater versus canal) on agricultural production remains unclear. One reason that the relative impact of different irrigation strategies on agricultural production has not been analyzed across India is because national-scale data on crop production and the types of irrigation technologies used are typically available at too coarse of spatial and temporal resolutions to answer this question adequately. Thus, we develop a novel algorithm to map cropped area across India at a 1 x 1 km scale using MODIS satellite data, and link these high-resolution cropped area maps with village-level data (n = 600,000) on irrigation. This allowed us to assess the relative impact of groundwater (i.e. dug, shallow, and deep wells) and canal irrigation (i.e. surface lift and flow canals) on winter cropped area and its sensitivity to rainfall across India at the village-scale from 2000 to 2006. We find that deep well irrigation is both associated with the greatest amount of winter cropped area, and is also the least sensitive to monsoon and winter rainfall variability. However, the effectiveness of deep well irrigation varies across India, with the greatest benefits seen in the regions that are most at risk for losing groundwater as a possible source of irrigation over the upcoming decades (e.g. Northwest India). This work highlights the need to develop ways to use remaining groundwater more efficiently (e.g. drip irrigation, less water-intensive crops) given that canal irrigation is not an adequate substitute, particularly in the regions that are facing the greatest levels of groundwater depletion.

  10. Comparison of radar and numerical weather model rainfall forecasts in the perspective of urban flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lovring, Maite Monica; Löwe, Roland; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas

    An early flood warning system has been developed for urban catchments and is currently running in online operation in Copenhagen. The system is highly dependent on the quality of rainfall forecast inputs. An investigation of precipitation inputs from Radar Nowcast (RN), Numerical Weather Prediction...... of the three forecast products is expected to yield the optimal input for flood warning....

  11. Nowcasting of Lightning-Related Accidents in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihrlich, Laura; Price, Colin

    2016-04-01

    Tropical Africa is the world capital of thunderstorm activity with the highest density of strikes per square kilometer per year. As a result it is also the continent with perhaps the highest casualties and injuries from direct lightning strikes. This region of the globe also has little lightning protection of rural homes and schools, while many casualties occur during outdoor activities (e.g. farming, fishing, sports, etc.) In this study we investigated two lightning-caused accidents that got wide press coverage: A lightning strike to a Cheetah Center in Namibia which caused a huge fire and great destruction (16 October 2013), and a plane crash in Mali where 116 people died (24 July 2014). Using data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) we show that the lightning data alone can provide important early warning information that can be used to reduce risks and damages and loss of life from lightning strikes. We have developed a now-casting scheme that allows for early warnings across Africa with a relatively low false alarm rate. To verify the accuracy of our now-cast, we have performed some statistical analysis showing relatively high skill at providing early warnings (lead time of a few hours) based on lightning alone. Furthermore, our analysis can be used in forensic meteorology for determining if such accidents are caused by lightning strikes.

  12. Statistically extrapolated nowcasting of summertime precipitation over the Eastern Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Min; Bica, Benedikt; Tüchler, Lukas; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a new multiple linear regression (MLR) approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) system for the Eastern Alps. The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples, and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach, based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.

  13. Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Iguchi, Takamichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Molthan, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment -PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

  14. A framework for probabilistic pluvial flood nowcasting for urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Murla, Damian; Wang, Lipen; Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent; Van Herk, Kristine; Van Ootegem, Luc; Willems, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Pluvial flood nowcasting is gaining ground not least because of the advancements in rainfall forecasting schemes. Short-term forecasts and applications have benefited from the availability of such forecasts with high resolution in space (~1km) and time (~5min). In this regard, it is vital to evaluate the potential of nowcasting products for urban inundation applications. One of the most advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) techniques is the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System, which was originally co-developed by the UK Met Office and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The scheme was further tuned to better estimate extreme and moderate events for the Belgian area (STEPS-BE). Against this backdrop, a probabilistic framework has been developed that consists of: (1) rainfall nowcasts; (2) sewer hydraulic model; (3) flood damage estimation; and (4) urban inundation risk mapping. STEPS-BE forecasts are provided at high resolution (1km/5min) with 20 ensemble members with a lead time of up to 2 hours using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. Forecasts' verification was performed over the cities of Leuven and Ghent and biases were found to be small. The hydraulic model consists of the 1D sewer network and an innovative 'nested' 2D surface model to model 2D urban surface inundations at high resolution. The surface components are categorized into three groups and each group is modelled using triangular meshes at different resolutions; these include streets (3.75 - 15 m2), high flood hazard areas (12.5 - 50 m2) and low flood hazard areas (75 - 300 m2). Functions describing urban flood damage and social consequences were empirically derived based on questionnaires to people in the region that were recently affected by sewer floods. Probabilistic urban flood risk maps were prepared based on spatial interpolation techniques of flood inundation. The method has been implemented and tested for the villages Oostakker and Sint-Amandsberg, which are part of the

  15. Road Weather and Connected Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisano, P.; Boyce, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    On average, there are over 5.8 M vehicle crashes each year of which 23% are weather-related. Weather-related crashes are defined as those crashes that occur in adverse weather or on slick pavement. The vast majority of weather-related crashes happen on wet pavement (74%) and during rainfall (46%). Connected vehicle technologies hold the promise to transform road-weather management by providing improved road weather data in real time with greater temporal and geographic accuracy. This will dramatically expand the amount of data that can be used to assess, forecast, and address the impacts that weather has on roads, vehicles, and travelers. The use of vehicle-based measurements of the road and surrounding atmosphere with other, more traditional weather data sources, and create road and atmospheric hazard products for a variety of users. The broad availability of road weather data from mobile sources will vastly improve the ability to detect and forecast weather and road conditions, and will provide the capability to manage road-weather response on specific roadway links. The RWMP is currently demonstrating how weather, road conditions, and related vehicle data can be used for decision making through an innovative Integrated Mobile Observations project. FHWA is partnering with 3 DOTs (MN, MI, & NV) to pilot these applications. One is a mobile alerts application called the Motorists Advisories and Warnings (MAW) and a maintenance decision support application. These applications blend traditional weather information (e.g., radar, surface stations) with mobile vehicle data (e.g., temperature, brake status, wiper status) to determine current weather conditions. These weather conditions, and other road-travel-relevant information, are provided to users via web and phone applications. The MAW provides nowcasts and short-term forecasts out to 24 hours while the EMDSS application can provide forecasts up to 72 hours in advance. The three DOTs have placed readers and external

  16. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  17. Winter MVC

    OpenAIRE

    Castellón Gadea, Pasqual

    2013-01-01

    Winter MVC és un framework de presentació basat en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodologia de configuracions. Winter MVC es un framework de presentación basado en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodología de configuraciones. Winter MVC is a presentation framework that simplifies Spring MVC configuration methodology.

  18. A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

    2015-04-01

    Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is

  19. Quantifying uncertainty in real time performance measurement for highway winter maintenance operations - phase 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of : Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive : mainten...

  20. A Global Landslide Nowcasting System using Remotely Sensed Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanely, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    A global Landslide Hazard Assessment model for Situational Awareness (LHASA) has been developed that combines susceptibility information with satellite-based precipitation to provide an indication of potential landslide activity at the global scale every 30 minutes. This model utilizes a 1-km global susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. A multi-satellite dataset from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is used to identify the current and antecedent rainfall conditions from the past 7 days. When both rainfall and susceptibility are high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate areas where a landslide may be likely. The global LHASA model is currently being run in near real-time every 30 minutes and the outputs are available in several different formats at https://pmm.nasa.gov/precip-apps. This talk outlines the LHASA system, discusses the performance metrics and potential applications of the LHASA system.

  1. Impact of merging methods on radar based nowcasting of rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shehu, Bora; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    Radar data with high spatial and temporal resolution are commonly used to track and predict rainfall patterns that serve as input for hydrological applications. To mitigate the high errors associated with the radar, many merging methods employing ground measurements have been developed. However these methods have been investigated mainly for simulation purposes, while for nowcasting they are limited to the application of the mean field bias correction. Therefore this study aims to investigate the impact of different merging methods on the nowcasting of the rainfall volumes regarding urban floods. Radar bias correction based on mean fields and quantile mapping are analyzed individually and also are implemented in conditional merging. Special attention is given to the impact of spatial and temporal filters on the predictive skill of all methods. The relevance of the radar merging techniques is demonstrated by comparing the performance of the forecasted rainfall field from the radar tracking algorithm HyRaTrac for both raw and merged radar data. For this purpose several extreme events are selected and the respective performance is evaluated by cross validation of the continuous criteria (bias and rmse) and categorical criteria (POD, FAR and GSS) for lead times up to 2 hours. The study area is located within the 128 km radius of Hannover radar in Lower Saxony, Germany and the data set constitutes of 80 recording stations in 5 min time steps for the period 2000-2012. The results reveal how the choice of merging method and the implementation of filters impacts the performance of the forecast algorithm.

  2. Nowcasting influenza outbreaks using open-source media report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Brownstein, John S. [Boston Children%3CU%2B2019%3Es Hospital, Boston, MA

    2013-02-01

    We construct and verify a statistical method to nowcast influenza activity from a time-series of the frequency of reports concerning influenza related topics. Such reports are published electronically by both public health organizations as well as newspapers/media sources, and thus can be harvested easily via web crawlers. Since media reports are timely, whereas reports from public health organization are delayed by at least two weeks, using timely, open-source data to compensate for the lag in %E2%80%9Cofficial%E2%80%9D reports can be useful. We use morbidity data from networks of sentinel physicians (both the Center of Disease Control's ILINet and France's Sentinelles network) as the gold standard of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity. The time-series of media reports is obtained from HealthMap (http://healthmap.org). We find that the time-series of media reports shows some correlation ( 0.5) with ILI activity; further, this can be leveraged into an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARMAX model) to nowcast ILI activity. We find that the ARMAX models have more predictive skill compared to autoregressive (AR) models fitted to ILI data i.e., it is possible to exploit the information content in the open-source data. We also find that when the open-source data are non-informative, the ARMAX models reproduce the performance of AR models. The statistical models are tested on data from the 2009 swine-flu outbreak as well as the mild 2011-2012 influenza season in the U.S.A.

  3. Severe thunderstorm activity over Bihar on 21st April, 2015: a simulation study by satellite based Nowcasting technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, Suman; Kumar, Ashish; Sangar, Ghansham; Mohapatra, M.

    2016-05-01

    Satellite based Nowcasting technique is customized version of Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC), it uses the extrapolation technique that allows for the tracking of Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) radiative and morphological properties and forecasts the evolution of these properties (based on cloud-top brightness temperature and area of the cloud cluster) up to 360 minutes, using infrared satellite imagery. The Thermal Infrared (TIR) channel of the weather satellite has been broadly used to study the behaviour of the cloud systems associated with deep convection. The main advantage of this approach is that for most of the globe the best statistics can only be obtained from satellite observations. Such a satellite survey would provide the statistics of MCSs covering the range of meteorological conditions needed to generalize the result and on the other hand only satellite observations can cover the very large range of space and time scale. The algorithm script is taken from Brazilian Scientist Dr. Danial Vila and implemented it into the Indian environment and made compatible with INSAT-3D hdf5 data format. For Indian region it utilizes the INSAT-3D satellite data of TIR1 (10.8 μm) channel and creates nowcast. The output is made compatible with GUI based software MIAS by generating the output in hdf5 format for better understanding and analysis of forecast. The main features of this algorithm are detection of Cloud Cluster based on Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) and area i.e. ≤235 ºK and ≥2400 km2 respectively. The tracking technique based on MCS overlapping areas in successive images. The script has been automized in Auxiliary Data Processing System (ADPS) and generating the forecast file in every half an hour and convert the output file in geotiff format. The geotiff file is easily converted into KMZ file format using ArcGIS software to overlay it on google map and hosted on the web server.

  4. Piloting a real-time surface water flood nowcasting system for enhancing operational resilience of emergency responders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Dapeng; Guan, Mingfu; Wilby, Robert; Bruce, Wright; Szegner, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Emergency services (such as Fire & Rescue, and Ambulance) can face the challenging tasks of having to respond to or operate under extreme and fast changing weather conditions, including surface water flooding. UK-wide, return period based surface water flood risk mapping undertaken by the Environment Agency provides useful information about areas at risks. Although these maps are useful for planning purposes for emergency responders, their utility to operational response during flood emergencies can be limited. A street-level, high resolution, real-time, surface water flood nowcasting system, has been piloted in the City of Leicester, UK to assess emergency response resilience to surface water flooding. Precipitation nowcasting over 7- and 48-hour horizons are obtained from the UK Met Office and used as inputs to the system. A hydro-inundation model is used to simulate urban surface water flood depths/areas at both the city and basin scale, with a 20 m and 3 m spatial resolution respectively, and a 15-minute temporal resolution, 7-hour and 48-hour in advance. Based on this, we evaluate both the direct and indirect impacts of potential surface water flood events on emergency responses, including: (i) identifying vulnerable populations (e.g. care homes and schools) at risk; and (ii) generating novel metrics of accessibility (e.g. travel time from service stations to vulnerable sites; spatial coverage with certain legislative timeframes) in real-time. In doing so, real-time information on potential risks and impacts of emerging flood incidents arising from intense rainfall can be communicated via a dedicated web-based platform to emergency responders thereby improving response times and operational resilience.

  5. An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

    2003-04-01

    An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

  6. Salish Sea Nowcast: A Real-time High-Resolution Model for Forecasts and Research Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latornell, D.; Allen, S. E.; Soontiens, N. K.; Dunn, M. B. H.; Liu, J.; Machuca, I.

    2016-02-01

    The Salish Sea real-time model system produces two forecasts and a nowcast daily, providing storm surge forecasts for several municipality stakeholders.Without human intervention, the automation system collects the required forcing data from various web services, runs the model and publishes results in the form of plots on several web pages.Here we will present the automation framework that enables a research model to be run operationally.The automation runs across two computer systems with a cloud computing facility running the numerical model (NEMO in our case), and a local Linux server doing everything else.The system has a modular, asynchronous architecture that is coordinated by a messaging framework.A manager process coordinates the sequencing and operation of a collection of worker processes each responsible for a specific task in the preparation for a model run, execution of the run, analysis, visualization, and publication to the web of the run results.Techniques that make the system reasonably fault tolerant will be discussed.The modular design easily allows researchers with a variety of skill sets to contribute to the framework to the benefit of the project and its knowledge transfer to stakeholders.We will discuss the performance of the system during the 2014-2016 storm surge seasons,and routine evaluation against sea surface height observation data streams.Daily model runs with best available weather and river runoff forcing facilitate continuous evaluation against cabled observatory data streams.We will show how those evaluations provide important insights that help to driveresearch that improves the model.

  7. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2017-11-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  8. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  9. How to Have a Healthy Winter | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Without a doubt, winter is here. Between the icy weather and the recent hustle and bustle of the holidays, everyone is at an increased risk of getting sick. With that in mind, Occupational Health Services has a few simple tips for staying healthy this winter.

  10. Evaluation of hazard assessment nowcasting at European scale within the HAREN project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    The final goal of the Civil Protection Project HAREN ("Hazard Assessment based on Rainfall European Nowcasts") has been assessing the hazard induced by intense precipitation at European scale. With this aim, the OPERA radar mosaics have been used to produce rainfall 6-hours nowcasts at a resolution of 4 km and 15 minutes. Within the project the hazard assessment is based on the comparison between forecasted rainfall accumulations with regional thresholds to produce a 3-level hazard classification. In this work we present the results of the evaluation of the HAREN nowcasting system during summer and fall 2013, not only in terms of point and regional rainfall forecasts, but in terms of the skill in forecasting the hazard levels as well.

  11. Nowcast of thunderstorm and typhoon activity based on lightning detection and flexible operation of micro-satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Y.

    2016-12-01

    It has become known that lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, namely, the intensity and area of precipitation and/or updraft. Thunderstorm is also important as a proxy of the energy input from ocean to atmosphere in typhoon, meaning that if we could monitor the thunderstorm with lightning we could predict the maximum wind velocity near the typhoon center by one or two days before. Constructing ELF and VLF radio wave observation network in Southeast Asia (AVON) and a regional dense network of automated weather station in a big city, we plan to establish the monitoring system for thunderstorm development in western pacific warm pool (WPWP) where typhoon is formed and in detail in big city area. On the other hand, some developing countries in SE-Asia are going to own micro-satellites dedicated to meteorological remote sensing. Making use of the lightning activity data measured by the ground-based networks, and information on 3-D structures of thunderclouds observed by the flexible on-demand operation of the remote-sensing micro-satellites, we would establish a new methodology to obtain very detail semi-real time information that cannot be achieved only with existing observation facilities, such as meteorological radar or large meteorological satellite. Using this new system we try to issue nowcast for the local thunderstorm and for typhoons. The first attempt will be carried out in Metro Manila in Philippines and WPWP as one of the SATREPS projects.

  12. Winter Wonderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Mary

    2011-01-01

    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  13. Weather Support for the 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Beijing 2008 Olympic and Paralympic Sailing Competitions (referred to as OPSC hereafter were held at Qingdao during August 9–23 and September 7–13 2008, respectively. The Qingdao Meteorological Bureau was the official provider of weather support for the OPSC. Three-dimensional real-time information with high spatial-temporal resolution was obtained by the comprehensive observation system during the OPSC, which included weather radars, wind profile radars, buoys, automated weather stations, and other conventional observations. The refined forecasting system based on MM5, WRF, and statistical modules provided point-specific hourly wind forecasts for the five venues, and the severe weather monitoring and forecasting system was used in short-term forecasts and nowcasts for rainstorms, gales, and hailstones. Moreover, latest forecasting products, warnings, and weather information were communicated conveniently and timely through a synthetic, speedy, and digitalized network system to different customers. Daily weather information briefings, notice boards, websites, and community short messages were the main approaches for regatta organizers, athletes, and coaches to receive weather service products at 8:00 PM of each day and whenever new updates were available. During the period of OPSC, almost one hundred people were involved in the weather service with innovative service concept, and the weather support was found to be successful and helpful to the OPSC.

  14. Satellite based technique for Nowcasting of thunderstorms over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    5

    software WDSS-II for operational application over the Indian region”, Meteor. & Atmos. Physics,. Vol.124, No. 1-2. Srivastava K, Roy Bhowmik SK, Sen Roy S, Thampi SB, Reddy YK ,2010,: Simulation of high impact convective events over Indian region by ARPS model with assimilation of Doppler weather radar radial ...

  15. AGA predicts winter jump in residential gas price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The American Gas Association predicts the average heating bill for residential gas consumers could increase by as much as 18% this winter. AGA Pres. Mike Baly said, Last year's winter was warmer than normal. If the 1992-93 winter is similar, AGA projects that residential natural gas heating bills will go up about 6%. If we see a return to normal winter weather, our projection show the average bill could rise by almost 18%

  16. A combined road weather forecast system to prevent road ice formation in the Adige Valley (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Piazza, Andrea; Antonacci, Gianluca; Todeschini, Ilaria; Apolloni, Roberto; Pretto, Ilaria

    2016-04-01

    Road ice is a dangerous meteorological hazard to a nation's transportation system and economy. By reducing the pavement friction with vehicle tyres, ice formation on pavements increases accident risk and delays travelling times thus posing a serious threat to road users' safety and the running of economic activities. Keeping roads clear and open is therefore essential, especially in mountainous areas where ice is likely to form during the winter period. Winter road maintenance helps to restore road efficiency and security, and its benefits are up to 8 times the costs sustained for anti-icing strategies [1]. However, the optimization of maintenance costs and the reduction of the environmental damage from over-salting demand further improvements. These can be achieved by reliable road weather forecasts, and in particular by the prediction of road surface temperatures (RSTs). RST is one of the most important parameters in determining road surface conditions. It is well known from literature that ice forms on pavements in high-humidity conditions when RSTs are below 0°C. We have therefore implemented an automatic forecast system to predict critical RSTs on a test route along the Adige Valley complex terrain, in the Italian Alps. The system considers two physical models, each computing heat and energy fluxes between the road and the atmosphere. One is Reuter's radiative cooling model, which predicts RSTs at sunrise as a function of surface temperatures at sunset and the time passed since then [2]. One is METRo (Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads), a road weather forecast software which also considers heat conduction through road material [3]. We have applied the forecast system to a network of road weather stations (road weather information system, RWIS) installed on the test route [4]. Road and atmospheric observations from RWIS have been used as initial conditions for both METRo and Reuter's model. In METRo observations have also been coupled to

  17. Road weather forecast quality analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    It is just as important to keep the highways functioning in a safe and efficient manner as it is to construct them in : the first place. Our economy is built around an efficient transportation system. Winter weather plays an important role : in highw...

  18. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  19. Wet winter pore pressures in railway embankments

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, Kevin M; Smethurst, Joel A; Powrie, William; O'Brien, Anthony S

    2013-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the influence of extreme wet winter weather on pore water pressures within clay fill railway embankments, using field monitoring data and numerical modelling. Piezometer readings taken across the London Underground Ltd network following the wet winter of 2000/2001 were examined, and showed occurrences of hydrostatic pore water pressure within embankments but also many readings below this. A correlation was found between the maximum pore water pressures and the permeabi...

  20. Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Hawkins, Angela; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-01-01

    Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al. 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity at the Geysers geothermal region in California and the induced seismicity due to fluid injection in Oklahoma. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say M_{λ } ≥ 4, and one small say M_{σ } ≥ 2. The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occurs between pairs of large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that has occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution of interevent counts defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes "natural time", earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time. The application of natural time to the accumulation of the seismic hazard depends on the applicability of Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling. The increasing number of small earthquakes that occur after a large earthquake can be scaled to give the risk of a large earthquake occurring. To illustrate our approach, we utilize the number of M_{σ } ≥ 2.75 earthquakes in Oklahoma to nowcast the number of M_{λ } ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in Oklahoma. The applicability of the scaling is illustrated during the rapid build-up of injection-induced seismicity between 2012 and 2016, and the subsequent reduction in seismicity associated with a reduction in fluid injections. The same method is applied to the geothermal-induced seismicity at the Geysers, California, for comparison.

  1. Nowcasting Cloud Fields for U.S. Air Force Special Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    logarithm of variance, ln[σ2], and indicates the squared standard deviation or the width of the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) that will...reflectance and probability of cloud. A statistical post-processing technique is applied using Bayesian estimation to train the system from a set of past...nowcasting, low cloud forecasting, cloud reflectance, ISR, Bayesian estimation, statistical post-processing, machine learning 15. NUMBER OF PAGES

  2. Combining C- and X-band Weather Radars for Improving Precipitation Estimates over Urban Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

    The topic of this thesis is weather radar precipitation measurements. Measuring the spatial and temporal variations of the precipitation by weather radars has significant advantages compared to point measurements from rain gauges within urban drainage applications. Knowledge on how the rainfall...... is distributed between the rain gauges is in itself valuable for retrospective analysis of urban drainage systems. In addition, on-line distributed weather radar precipitation measurements facilitate radar based now-casts of the precipitation. As the radar detects the precipitation before it reaches the urban...... of future system state. Accurate and reliable weather radar measurements are, therefore, important for future developments and achievements within urban drainage. This PhD study investigates two types of weather radars. Both systems are in operational use in Denmark today. A network of meteorological C...

  3. Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S.; Darden, C.; Burks, J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

  4. WINTER SAECULUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  5. Mirador - Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. Our weather system includes the dynamics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans and land. The improvement of...

  6. Utilizing Vehicle Data for Road Weather Management (Pikalert 5.0).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Weather has a significant impact on the operations of the nations roadway system year round. For example, rain reduces pavement friction; winter weather can leave pavements snow-covered or icy; fog, smoke, blowing dust, heavy precipitation, and ve...

  7. Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.

    2013-01-01

    Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

  8. Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph; hide

    2013-01-01

    Tethered satellites offer the potential to be an important enabling technology to support operational space weather monitoring systems. Space weather "nowcasting" and forecasting models rely on assimilation of near-real-time (NRT) space environment data to provide warnings for storm events and deleterious effects on the global societal infrastructure. Typically, these models are initialized by a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g., via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative semi-empirical physics-based forward-prediction calculations. Many challenges are associated with the development of an operational system, from the top-level architecture (e.g., the required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models) down to the individual instruments capable of making the NRT measurements. This study focuses on the latter challenge: we present some examples of how tethered satellites (from 100s of m to 20 km) are uniquely suited to address certain shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements are presented for two examples of space environment observables.

  9. Use of predictive models and rapid methods to nowcast bacteria levels at coastal beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.

    2009-01-01

    The need for rapid assessments of recreational water quality to better protect public health is well accepted throughout the research and regulatory communities. Rapid analytical methods, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunomagnetic separation/adenosine triphosphate (ATP) analysis, are being tested but are not yet ready for widespread use.Another solution is the use of predictive models, wherein variable(s) that are easily and quickly measured are surrogates for concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria. Rainfall-based alerts, the simplest type of model, have been used by several communities for a number of years. Deterministic models use mathematical representations of the processes that affect bacteria concentrations; this type of model is being used for beach-closure decisions at one location in the USA. Multivariable statistical models are being developed and tested in many areas of the USA; however, they are only used in three areas of the Great Lakes to aid in notifications of beach advisories or closings. These “operational” statistical models can result in more accurate assessments of recreational water quality than use of the previous day's Escherichia coli (E. coli)concentration as determined by traditional culture methods. The Ohio Nowcast, at Huntington Beach, Bay Village, Ohio, is described in this paper as an example of an operational statistical model. Because predictive modeling is a dynamic process, water-resource managers continue to collect additional data to improve the predictive ability of the nowcast and expand the nowcast to other Ohio beaches and a recreational river. Although predictive models have been shown to work well at some beaches and are becoming more widely accepted, implementation in many areas is limited by funding, lack of coordinated technical leadership, and lack of supporting epidemiological data.

  10. Comparing nowcastings of three severe convective events by statistical and NWP models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Pešice, Petr

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 93, 1-3 (2009), s. 397-407 ISSN 0169-8095. [European Conference on Severe Storms /4./. Miramare -Trieste, 10.09.2007-14.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk OC 112; GA MŠk 1P05ME748 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * NWP model * Statistical model * Nowcasting * Local convective precipitation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01698095

  11. Nowcast Skill of the New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumberg, A. F.; Bruno, M. S.; Fullerton, B.; Fan, S.

    2004-12-01

    The New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS) provides nowcasts and forecasts of surface/bottom currents, salinities and temperatures, waves, and water level, for the New York /New Jersey Harbor Estuary including the waters eastward to the continental shelf break of the New York Bight and Long Island Sound in one contiguous fashion. The system has been in operation since the end of 2003. The operations, from the acquisition of oceanographic and meteorological data to the delivery of marine nowcast/forecast information to a wide group of users are now automated. The observational system consists of shore-based and moored platforms at strategic locations inside the harbor, and at four sites along the coast of New Jersey, most of them equipped with both oceanographic and meteorological sensors. Ferry-based conductivity and temperature sensors are also part of the observational network. The Stevens web site imports and serves all available real-time data (www.stevens.edu/maritimeforecast). The prediction system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and is designed to provide accurate and comprehensive realizations of meteorological and oceanographic conditions. Forcing is based on NOAA/NWS/NCEP's Mesoscale Eta 12km atmospheric forecast model, USGS river flow gauges, NOAA/NOS water level stations and effluents from 110 wastewater treatment plants. The water level at all the open boundary locations is specified by a combination of a reconstructed tidal record using tidal harmonics and by persisting the low frequency observed water level variation at Atlantic City, NJ. Temperature and salinity at the open boundaries are taken from climatology. The system is designed to automatically transfer forcing data and perform forecasts once daily, at 0000 hours. In order to firmly establish the credibility and robustness of NYHOPS, a skill assessment protocol continually runs in the background. This protocol has been implemented to quantify the accuracy of the system

  12. Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2015-01-01

    The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed. PMID:26001083

  13. Comparison of thermospheric data assimilation with a drag temperature model for operational nowcasting and forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Murray, Sophie; Henley, E. M.; Jackson, D. R.; Bruinsma, S. L.

    2013-01-01

    Poster presented at European Space Weather Week 10, 2013 November 18 - 22, Antwerp Brussels (in Session 12: Space Weather Forecast Verification).   Also presented at RAS meeting, Space weather: a dialogue between scientists and forecasters, 2013 December 13, London.

  14. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  15. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  16. Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting Activity in NICT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; T. Murata, Ken

    Disturbances of Space environment around the Earth (geospace) is controlled by the activity of the Sun and the solar wind. Disturbances in geospace sometimes cause serious problems to satellites, astronauts, and telecommunications. To minimize the effect of the problems, space weather forecasting is necessary. In Japan, NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) is in charge of space weather forecasting services as a regional warning center of International Space Environment Service. With help of geospace environment data exchanging among the international cooperation, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide information on nowcasts and forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. For prompt reporting of space weather information, we also conduct our original observation networks from the Sun to the upper atmosphere: Hiraiso solar observatory, domestic ionosonde networks, magnetometer & HF radar observations in far-east Siberia and Alaska, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionospheric network (SEALION). ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) real-time beacon data are received using our antenna facilities to monitor the solar and solar wind conditions in near real-time. Our current activities and future perspective of space weather monitoring and forecasting will be introduced in this report.

  17. Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allsopp, Jim; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

  18. Application of a Fuzzy Verification Technique for Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    filtered by the application of a threshold. Fuzzy methods have been developed in recent years to overcome limitations encountered when applying...release; distribution is unlimited iv List of Figures Fig. 1 Triple- nested model domains: domain center points are coincident and are centered near...List of Tables Table 1 WRE–N triple- nested domain dimensions in kilometers.......................5 Table 2 WRE–N configuration

  19. Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

    2016-02-01

    Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

  20. Review on the solar spectral variability in the EUV for space weather purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lilensten

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The solar XUV-EUV flux is the main energy source in the terrestrial diurnal thermosphere: it produces ionization, dissociation, excitation and heating. Accurate knowledge of this flux is of prime importance for space weather. We first list the space weather applications that require nowcasting and forecasting of the solar XUV-EUV flux. We then review present models and discuss how they account for the variability of the solar spectrum. We show why the measurement of the full spectrum is difficult, and why it is illusory to retrieve it from its atmospheric effects. We then address the problem of determining a set of observations that are adapted for space weather purposes, in the frame of ionospheric studies. Finally, we review the existing and future space experiments that are devoted to the observation of the solar XUV-EUV spectrum.

  1. Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

  2. Winter maintenance performance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  3. Development of the nowcasting system for the XVII Asiad at Korea Meteorological Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Kyungjeen; Kim, Juwon; Jang, Taekyu; Hwang, Seung On; Park, Yunho; Kim, Yoonjae; Park, Seonjoo; Joo, Sangwon; Noh, Hae Mi

    2014-05-01

    The XVII Asiad, known as the 2014 Asian game, is the largest sporting event in Asia. It will be held in Incheon, South Korea from September 19 to October 4, with 437 events in 36 sports. To support this game, Korea Meteorological Administration developed Incheon Data Assimilation and Prediction System (IDAPS) for nowcasting and very short range forecasts. The domain is centered at Incheon city and covers the central region of the Korean peninsula and adjacent seas. It repeats analysis and forecast processes with 1 hour cycling interval. IDAPS has approximately 1 km horizontal resolution with 324 x 360 grids and 70 vertical layers. Three dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to assimilate AWS, windprofiler, buoy, sonde, aircraft, scatwinds, rain rate, and radar products. The details of IDAPS and the experiment results will be given during the conference.

  4. Short-range forecasting and nowcasting, using a simple, isentropic prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Ralph A.; Homan, Jeffrey H.

    1989-01-01

    A numerical advection model which can be run on a local computer in a real-time forecast environment is described. This isentropic forecast model provides the local forecast office with easy access to temporally and spatially detailed estimates of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind field changes between 12-h rawinsonde observations. Case studies are presented based on the use of the model to predict the preconvective environment in spring and summer situations. Short-term forecasts of midtropospheric static stability patterns and stability index changes are traced for several severe storm events with and without the inclusion of surface data observed during the day. Forecast images of VAS low- and midlevel moisture fields and vertical moisture gradients are compared with the observations to determine the utility of the combined model/VAS imagery as a nowcasting guide.

  5. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  6. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  7. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-03-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value to the aforementioned emerging fields in current and future applications, but also to the analysis of integrated water systems.

  8. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  9. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  10. Guidelines to Facilitate the Evaluation of Brines for Winter Roadway Maintenance Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-19

    This document presents guidelines to facilitate the evaluation of brines for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. Brines are used in anti-icing applications which typically consist of placing liquid snow and ice control chemicals...

  11. Severe European winters in a secular perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

  12. Numerical Weather Prediction and Relative Economic Value framework to improve Integrated Urban Drainage- Wastewater management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas

    to evaluate when acting on the forecast is beneficial or not. Rainfall forecasts are extremely valuable for estimating near future storm-water-related impacts on the IUDWS. Therefore, weather radar extrapolation “nowcasts” provide valuable predictions for RTC. However, radar nowcasts are limited...... by their prediction horizon of 1 to 2 hours and RTC of IUDWS could benefit from longer forecast horizons. The development of NWP models in parallel to the increase in computational power has led to limited area models (LAM) with increasingly finer spatial-temporal resolution, opening the possibility to use...... such weather forecast products in urban water management. NWPs are complementary to radar forecasts, providing predictions on a longer time scale (days). However, atmospheric motions are chaotic and highly nonlinear. Applying NWP to urban catchments, which often have a similar size to a single NWP grid cell...

  13. Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampos, Vasileios; Miller, Andrew C.; Crossan, Steve; Stefansen, Christian

    2015-08-01

    User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.

  14. All-wheel drive and winter-weather safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    It is frequently stated that people living in northern states, the so called Snowbelt of the United : States, benefit with respect to safety from driving all-wheel or four-wheel drive vehicles as : opposed to front or rear-wheel drive only. This stud...

  15. Estuary wader capacity following severe weather mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.A.; Baillie, S.R.; Clark, N.A.; Langston, R.H.W.

    1993-01-01

    The building of a tidal power barrage across an estuary may lead to substantial changes in its ecology. Many of Britain's estuaries hold internationally important numbers of waders. Careful consideration, therefore, needs to be given to the likely effects of tidal power barrages on wader populations. The opportunity for increased understanding of the mechanisms which govern wader populations was provided by a period of severe winter weather in 1991, which resulted in a substantial mortality of waders in eastern England. Such conditions are known to be stressful to birds and the study objectives were to investigate both the effects of and recovery from severe weather. (author)

  16. Phased Array Radar Network Experiment for Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushio, T.; Kikuchi, H.; Mega, T.; Yoshikawa, E.; Mizutani, F.; Takahashi, N.

    2017-12-01

    Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR) was firstly developed in 2012 by Osaka University and Toshiba under a grant of NICT using the Digital Beamforming Technique, and showed a impressive thunderstorm behavior with 30 second resolution. After that development, second PAWR was installed in Kobe city about 60 km away from the first PAWR site, and Tokyo Metropolitan University, Osaka Univeristy, Toshiba and the Osaka Local Government started a new project to develop the Osaka Urban Demonstration Network. The main sensor of the Osaka Network is a 2-node Phased Array Radar Network and lightning location system. Data products that are created both in local high performance computer and Toshiba Computer Cloud, include single and multi-radar data, vector wind, quantitative precipitation estimation, VIL, nowcasting, lightning location and analysis. Each radar node is calibarated by the baloon measurement and through the comparison with the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)/ DPR (Dual Frequency Space borne Radar) within 1 dB. The attenuated radar reflectivities obtained by the Phased Array Radar Network at X band are corrected based on the bayesian scheme proposed in Shimamura et al. [2016]. The obtained high resolution (every 30 seconds/ 100 elevation angles) 3D reflectivity and rain rate fields are used to nowcast the surface rain rate up to 30 minutes ahead. These new products are transferred to Osaka Local Government in operational mode and evaluated by several section in Osaka Prefecture. Furthermore, a new Phased Array Radar with polarimetric function has been developed in 2017, and will be operated in the fiscal year of 2017. In this presentation, Phased Array Radar, network architecuture, processing algorithm, evalution of the social experiment and first Multi-Prameter Phased Array Radar experiment are presented.

  17. RESEARCH NOTE THE PERFOR]\\IANCE DURING WINTER, OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    THE PERFOR]\\IANCE DURING WINTER, OF HETFERS FED GRASS SILAGE, MADE UNDER. UNFAVOURABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND E. curvula HAY, PRODUCED. FROM THE SAME SWARD. Receipt of MS: 06-10-1981. A. van Niekerk. Cedara Agriculrural Research Station, PlBag X9059, Pietermaritzburg ...

  18. Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cunrui; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Barnett, Adrian G

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20-30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Potential energy expenditure by litter-roosting bats associated with temperature under leaf litter during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger W. Perry

    2013-01-01

    In temperate portions of North America, some bats that remain active during winter undergo short periods of hibernation below leaf litter on the forest floor during episodes of below-freezing weather. These winter roosts may provide above-freezing conditions, but the thermal conditions under leaf litter are unclear. Further, little is known of the relationship between...

  20. Recent advances in sustainable winter road operations – a book proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-05

    Investing in winter transportation operations is essential and beneficial to the public and the economy. The U.S. economy cannot afford the cost of shutting down highways, airports, etc., during winter weather. In the northern U.S. and other cold-cli...

  1. Performance and application of a multi-wavelength, ground-based microwave radiometer in intense convective weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pak Wai Chan

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Thermodynamic and dynamic quantities, such as the K-index and GUSTEX (a wind gust estimate, are commonly used in the nowcasting of intense convective weather. In the past, they were derived from conventional upper-air ascent measurements, which were normally only available twice a day. In the tropics, the thermodynamic property of the troposphere could change rapidly in rain episodes and the conventional upper-air ascent data alone are not sufficient for nowcasting purposes. This paper discusses the use of a multi-wavelength, ground-based microwave radiometer to provide frequently updated (once every 5 minutes thermodynamic profiles of the troposphere up to 10 km for the nowcasting of severe convective weather during a field experiment in Hong Kong in 2004. The accuracy of the radiometer's measurements is first established by comparing with the temperature and humidity profiles of upper-air ascents and the integrated water vapour of Global Positioning System (GPS receivers. The humidity profile and K-index from the radiometer in a number of rainstorm cases are then studied. They are found to give useful indications of the accumulation of water vapour and the increasing degree of instability of the troposphere before the occurrence of the heavy rain. The continuous availability of the thermodynamic profiles from the radiometer also makes it possible to study the correlation between K-index and the degree of instability of the troposphere. In this study, the tropospheric instability is expressed in terms of the total number and the rate of lightning strikes within 20 km or so from the radiometer. It is found to have good correlation with the time-averaged K-index from the radiometer during the heavy rain episodes in the field experiment period. Furthermore, the feasibility of combining the thermodynamic profiles from the radiometer and wind profiles given by radar wind profilers in the continuous estimation of wind gusts is studied. The estimated

  2. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    2011-01-01

    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern...... hemisphere. Can climatic conditions alone explain the sizeable difference in reduction in building activity in the construction sector in European countries in the winter months, or are other factors such as technology, economic cycles and schemes for financial compensation influential as well? What...... possibilities exist for reducing seasonal variation in employment? In addition to a literature review related to winter construction, European and national employment and meteorological data were studied. Finally, ministerial acts, ministerial orders or other public policy documents related to winter...

  3. Deer Wintering Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  4. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  5. A successful forecast of an El Nino winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, R.A.

    1992-01-01

    This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance

  6. An automated nowcasting model of significant instability events in the flight terminal area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges França, Gutemberg; Valdonel de Almeida, Manoel; Rosette, Alessana C.

    2016-05-01

    This paper presents a novel model, based on neural network techniques, to produce short-term and local-specific forecasts of significant instability for flights in the terminal area of Galeão Airport, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Twelve years of data were used for neural network training/validation and test. Data are originally from four sources: (1) hourly meteorological observations from surface meteorological stations at five airports distributed around the study area; (2) atmospheric profiles collected twice a day at the meteorological station at Galeão Airport; (3) rain rate data collected from a network of 29 rain gauges in the study area; and (4) lightning data regularly collected by national detection networks. An investigation was undertaken regarding the capability of a neural network to produce early warning signs - or as a nowcasting tool - for significant instability events in the study area. The automated nowcasting model was tested using results from five categorical statistics, indicated in parentheses in forecasts of the first, second, and third hours, respectively, namely proportion correct (0.99, 0.97, and 0.94), BIAS (1.10, 1.42, and 2.31), the probability of detection (0.79, 0.78, and 0.67), false-alarm ratio (0.28, 0.45, and 0.73), and threat score (0.61, 0.47, and 0.25). Possible sources of error related to the test procedure are presented and discussed. The test showed that the proposed model (or neural network) can grab the physical content inside the data set, and its performance is quite encouraging for the first and second hours to nowcast significant instability events in the study area.

  7. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  8. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1 . For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β , of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08 . We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01 . The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog

  9. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

  10. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  11. Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Adler, Robert; Hong, Yang; Kumar, Sujay; Lerner-Lam, Arthur

    2011-01-01

    The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario

  12. Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

  13. Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists

  14. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  15. Stem base rot of winter wheat by Fusarium spp. - causes and effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Narkiewicz-Jodko

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work was to determine the influence of weather conditions and a degree of weed infestation on the incidence of stem bases rot (Fusarium spp. of winter wheat cultivars as well as their yield. The winter wheat cultivars (Kobra, Korweta, Mikon, Zyta were investigated (2000-2002 in the field where the following herbicides: Apyros 75 WG + Atpolan, Affinity 50,75 WG, Attribut 70 WG were applied. It has been shown the occurrence of stem base rot (Fusarium spp. depended mainly on weather conditions. The application of the herbicides improved the plant health. The stem base rot on winter wheat was caused by Fusarium spp., specially F. culmorum. The decrease in winter wheat yield depended on weather conditions, weed infestation and the occurrence of stem base rot (Fusarium spp..

  16. Proceedings of the COST 75 final seminar on advanced weather radar systems; Beitraege des Instituts zum COST 75 final seminar on advanced weather radar systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumann, R.; Flender, F.; Hagen, M.; Hoeller, H.; Keil, C.; Meischner, P.

    1998-07-01

    Across Europe more than 110 weather radars are in operation. More than 60 of them are Doppler radars and this number is increasing steadily. Doppler systems are becoming an operational standard. Most systems operate in C-band, with the exception of the Spanish radar network which is composed of S-band Doppler radars. Radar product composites are available for Scandinavia and Central Europe. National networks exist for the UK, France and Spain. Europe further is fortunate to have 8 polarimetric Doppler radars used mainly for research. In Italy some of those systems are used also for operational nowcasting applications for dedicated customers. The Chilbolton multiparameter Doppler radar operates at S-band. (orig.)

  17. WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  18. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  19. Reconstruction of the solar spectral UV irradiance for nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state on the basis of LYRA measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Egorova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The LYRA instrument onboard ESA PROBA2 satellite will provide 6-hourly solar irradiance at the Lyman-alpha (121.6 nm and the Herzberg continuum (~200–220 nm wavelength range. Because the nowcasting of the neutral and ionic state of the middle atmosphere requires the solar irradiance for the wide spectral range (120–680 nm we have developed the statistical tool for the reconstruction of the full spectrum from the LYRA measurements. The accuracy of the reconstructed irradiance has been evaluated with 1-D transient radiative-convective model with neutral and ion chemistry using the daily solar spectral irradiance measured with SUSIM and SOLSTICE instruments onboard UARS satellite. We compared the results of transient 1-year long model simulations for 2000 driven by the observed and reconstructed solar irradiance and showed that the reconstruction of the full spectrum using linear regression equation based on the solar irradiance in two LYRA channels can be successfully used for nowcasting of the middle atmosphere. We have also identified conditions when the proposed approach does not yield spectral reconstruction with sufficient accuracy.

  20. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  1. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  2. Mariners Weather Log

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  3. Radar Weather Observation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  4. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  5. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  6. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  7. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  8. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  9. Surface Weather Observing Manuals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Manuals and instructions for taking weather observations. Includes the annual Weather Bureau 'Instructions for Preparing Meteorological Forms...' and early airways...

  10. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  11. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  12. Space Weather in Operation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  13. Weather Fundamentals: Meteorology. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) looks at how meteorologists gather and interpret current weather data collected from sources…

  14. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Damm

    2017-08-01

    Under +2 °C warming, the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts to up to 10.1 million nights per winter season, which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971–2000. Among the top four European skiing tourism nations – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland – France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria, followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.

  15. Relationship of deer and moose populations to previous winters' snow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.; McRoberts, R.E.; Peterson, R.O.; Page, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    (1) Linear regression was used to relate snow accumulation during single and consecutive winters with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawn:doe ratios, mosse (Alces alces) twinning rates and calf:cow ratios, and annual changes in deer and moose populations. Significant relationships were found between snow accumulation during individual winters and these dependent variables during the following year. However, the strongest relationships were between the dependent variables and the sums of the snow accumulations over the previous three winters. The percentage of the variability explained was 36 to 51. (2) Significant relationships were also found between winter vulnerability of moose calves and the sum of the snow accumulations in the current, and up to seven previous, winters, with about 49% of the variability explained. (3) No relationship was found between wolf numbers and the above dependent variables. (4) These relationships imply that winter influences on maternal nutrition can accumulate for several years and that this cumulative effect strongly determines fecundity and/or calf and fawn survivability. Although wolf (Canis lupus L.) predation is the main direct mortality agent on fawns and calves, wolf density itself appears to be secondary to winter weather in influencing the deer and moose populations.

  16. On the effectiveness of surface assimilation in probabilistic nowcasts of planetary boundary layer profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Hacker, Joshua

    2013-04-01

    Surface observations comprise a wide, non-expensive and reliable source of information about the state of the near-surface planetary boundary layer (PBL). Operational data assimilation systems have encountered several difficulties in effectively assimilating them, among others due to their local-scale representativeness, the transient coupling between the surface and the atmosphere aloft and the balance constraints usually used. A long-term goal of this work is to find an efficient system for probabilistic PBL nowcasting that can be employed wherever surface observations are present. Earlier work showed that surface observations can be an important source of information with a single column model (SCM) and an ensemble filter (EF). Here we extend that work to quantify the probabilistic skill of ensemble SCM predictions with a model including added complexity. We adopt a factor separation analysis to quantify the contribution of surface assimilation relative to that of selected model components (parameterized radiation and externally imposed horizontal advection) to the probabilistic skill of the system, and of any beneficial or detrimental interactions between them. To assess the real utility of the flow-dependent covariances estimated with the EF and of the SCM of the PBL we compare the skill of the SCM/EF system to that of a reference one based on climatological covariances and a 30-min persistence model. It consists of a dressing technique, whereby a deterministic 3D mesoscale forecast (e.g. from WRF model) is adjusted and dressed with uncertainty using a seasonal sample of mesoscale forecasts and surface forecast errors. Results show that assimilation of surface observations can improve deterministic and probabilistic profile predictions more significantly than major model improvements. Flow-dependent covariances estimated with the SCM/EF show clear advantage over the use of climatological covariances when the flow is characterized by wide variability, when

  17. Titan's Emergence from Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  18. Nutritional condition of Pacific Black Brant wintering at the extremes of their range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, D.D.; Barboza, P.S.; Ward, D.H.

    2006-01-01

    Endogenous stores of energy allow birds to survive periods of severe weather and food shortage during winter. We documented changes in lipid, protein, moisture, and ash in body tissues of adult female Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and modeled the energetic costs of wintering. Birds were collected at the extremes of their winter range, in Alaska and Baja California, Mexico. Body lipids decreased over winter for birds in Alaska but increased for those in Baja California. Conversely, body protein increased over winter for Brant in Alaska and remained stable for birds in Baja California. Lipid stores likely fuel migration for Brant wintering in Baja California and ensure winter survival for those in Alaska. Increases in body protein may support earlier reproduction for Brant in Alaska. Predicted energy demands were similar between sites during late winter but avenues of expenditure were different. Birds in Baja California spent more energy on lipid synthesis while those in Alaska incurred higher thermoregulatory costs. Estimated daily intake rates of eelgrass were similar between sites in early winter; however, feeding time was more constrained in Alaska because of high tides and short photoperiods. Despite differences in energetic costs and foraging time, Brant wintering at both sites appeared to be in good condition. We suggest that wintering in Alaska may be more advantageous than long-distance migration if winter survival is similar between sites and constraints on foraging time do not impair body condition. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

  19. Beyond the Weather Chart: Weathering New Experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Amy Bruno

    1996-01-01

    Describes an early childhood educator's approach to teaching children about rain, rainbows, clouds, precipitation, the sun, air, and wind. Recommends ways to organize study topics and describes experiments that can help children better understand the different elements of weather. (MOK)

  20. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  1. Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    various road management activities and for better assessment of avalanche danger situation during the winter period (November to April). Weather forecasting in the context of avalanche forecasting can be viewed as an initial essential process to begin assessment of an avalanche danger situation for a given area and ...

  2. Braving the Elements: Protecting Schools against Weather-Related Disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breighner, Mary

    1997-01-01

    Discusses common weather-related hazards (floods, windstorms, and winter storms) and provides some steps administrators can take to protect their schools. Suggests administrators periodically assess their school's commitment to loss control, housekeeping, suitable building construction and reinforcement, sprinkler systems, water supply,…

  3. Rainfall estimation for hydrology using volumetric weather radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis focuses specifically on weather radar rainfall measurements in strati form precipitation. In North-Western Europe this type of precipitation is most dominant in winter and leads to the largest hydro logical response of catchments. Unfortunately, the quality of uncorrected radar rainfall

  4. Effect of surface preparation on service life of top-coats applied to weathered primer paint

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam Williams; Mark Knaebe; Peter Sotos

    2008-01-01

    Paint companies usually recommend that topcoats be applied to primer paint within two weeks. Unfortunately, this is not always possible. For example, onset of winter weather shortly after applying primer may delay topcoat application until spring. Scuff sanding or repriming are often recommended remedial methods for preparing a weathered primer for topcoats, but there...

  5. Using Weather Radar to Optimise Operation of an Urban Drainage System with Distributed Rainwater Storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby

    2012-01-01

    The perspective of controlling the local rain water storage tanks for a small catchment is investigated to evaluate if a predictive control reduces the CSO from the storm drainage system. A weather radar based nowcast system is used to predict the actual precipitation two hours ahead. In case...... and with passive local rainwater storage tanks are used as a reference. The results show that local rain water storage tanks reduce the CSO’s by 50% and lower the maximal water levels in the storm drainage system. The active control clearly outperforms the passive storage strategy....... of more than 1 mm rain - the control strategy is set to empty all rainwater storage tanks down to 50% capacity in order to capture a significant part of the approaching rain. This strategy is evaluated though simulation with the MOUSE model. Simulations of scenarios without local storage tanks...

  6. Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

    2014-05-01

    The impact of space weather on the power grid is a tangible and recurring threat with potentially serious consequences on society. Of particular concern is the long-distance high-voltage power grid, which is vulnerable to the effects of geomagnetic storms that can damage or destroy equipment or lead to grid collapse. In order to launch a dialogue on the topic and encourage authorities, regulators and operators in European countries and North America to learn from each other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centre, with the contribution of the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat, jointly organised a workshop on the impact of extreme space weather on the power grid on 29-30 October 2013. Being structured into 6 sessions, the topics addressed were space-weather phenomena and the dynamics of their impact on the grid, experiences with prediction and now-casting in the USA and in Europe, risk assessment and preparedness, as well as policy implications arising from increased awareness of the space-weather hazard. The main workshop conclusions are: • There is increasing awareness of the risk of space-weather impact among power-grid operators and regulators and some countries consider it a priority risk to be addressed. • The predictability of space-weather phenomena is still limited and relies, in part, on data from ageing satellites. NOAA is working with NASA to launch the DSCOVR solar wind spacecraft, the replacement for the ACE satellite, in early 2015. • In some countries, models and tools for GIC prediction and grid impact assessment have been developed in collaboration with national power grids but equipment vulnerability models are scarce. • Some countries have successfully hardened their transmission grids to space-weather impact and sustained relatively little or no damage due to currents induced by past moderate space-weather events. • While there is preparedness

  7. Space Weathering of Rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

  8. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  9. Winter is losing its cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.

    2017-12-01

    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  10. Computing tomorrow's weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Peter

    2009-06-01

    The development of computer models that simulate the Earth's atmosphere, allowing us to predict weather and anticipate climate change, is one of the triumphs of 20th-century science. Weather forecasting used to be very hit-and-miss, based on rough rules of thumb and the assumption that similar weather patterns would evolve in a similar manner. But from 1950 onwards, digital computers revolutionized the field, transforming it from a woolly empirical activity to a precise, quantitative, science-based procedure. Weather forecasting was among the first computational sciences and is still a major application for high-end computers today. In Weather by the Numbers, the historian Kristine Harper tells the fascinating story of how numerical weather prediction became possible.

  11. Estimation of the solar energy potential in Egypt by developing high resolution solar Atlas and nowcasting service in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Askary, H. M.; Kosmopoulos, P.; Kazadzis, S.; Taylor, M.; Raptis, P.; Keramitsoglou, I.; Kiranoudis, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    In light of efforts made by the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt to achieve the desired economic growth while preserving the environment, the government tries to address the demand for energy efficiency through the use of renewable energy sources. In the framework of the HORIZON 2020 GEO-Cradle project, we report on the estimation of the solar energy potential in Egypt by developing the analytical solar Atlas of Egypt for optimal Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power system installations as well as an innovative nowcasting service in real time based on a number of priority parameters (optical properties of clouds and aerosols, solar zenith angle, total ozone column, water vapor, etc) for efficient energy planning. The mean monthly solar energy maps are based on a 15-year complex and highly variable climatology taking into account the clouds and aerosols impact on Direct Normal and Global Horizontal Irradiances (DNI and GHI respectively), while the spatial resolution is almost 5 km, maximizing the exploitative value of the solar energy technologies. On the other hand, the operational nowcasting service of the GHI and DNI is developed in the framework of the solea project (www.solea.gr) and is based on a synergy of large (2.5M record) Radiative Transfer Model simulation look-up tables, neural networks and satellite-based cloud (Meteosat) and aerosol inputs (CAMS) in real time. This system is able to produce maps of Egypt at high resolution (1nm, 0.05 x 0.05 degrees, 15 min) and the whole approach is ideal for effective energy planning and services while it can support the local energy managing authorities.

  12. Space Weather Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Space Weather Analysis archives are model output of ionospheric, thermospheric and magnetospheric particle populations, energies and electrodynamics

  13. Weather it's Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

    2004-12-01

    For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

  14. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  15. Farmers’ Market Expands to Offer Products in Winter | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    By Carolynne Keenan, Contributing Writer The 2013 National Cancer Institute (NCI) at Frederick Farmers’ Market regular season may have closed, but that doesn’t mean customers who want fresh produce, handmade crafts, and other homemade goodies from local vendors are out of luck. Winter Markets, which began Jan. 7, will be held every other Tuesday, from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m., in front of Building 549 or in the Café Room, depending on the weather.

  16. Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting based on an extrapolation of radar reflectivity and an ensemble approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Mejsnar, Jan; Pop, Lukáš; Bližňák, Vojtěch

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 194, 15 September (2017), s. 245-257 ISSN 0169-8095 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : scale-dependence * forecast * predictability * images * model * rainfall * weather * analogs * motion Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Science s, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric science s Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www. science direct.com/ science /article/pii/S0169809516305142

  17. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  18. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  19. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  20. Evaporation and weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, H.A.R. de; Feddes, R.A.; Holtslag, A.A.M.; Lablans, W.N.; Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Shuttleworth, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    Data on evaporation to be used in agriculture, hydrology, forestry, etc. are usually supplied by meteorologists. Meteorologists themselves also use evaporation data. Air mass properties determining weather are strongly dependent on the input of water vapour from the surface. So for weather

  1. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Wang, X.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  2. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore......, the capacity of the highway seems to be reduced in bad weather and there are indications that travel time variability is also increased, at least in free-flow conditions. Heavy precipitation reduces speed and capacity by around 5-8%, whereas snow primarily reduces capacity. Other weather variables......-parametrically against traffic density and in step 2 the residuals from step 1 are regressed linearly against the weather variables. The choice of a non-parametric method is made to avoid constricting ties from a parametric specification and because the focus here is not on the relationship between traffic flow...

  3. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G

    2011-01-01

    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  4. Space weather effects measured in atmospheric radiation on aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiska, W. K.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Judge, K.; Wieman, S. R.; Atwell, W.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Bell, L. D.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Wiley, S.; Teets, E.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Jones, J. B. L.; Crowley, G.; Azeem, S. I.; Halford, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the domains that are affected by space weather, the coupling between the solar and galactic high-energy particles, the magnetosphere, and atmospheric regions can significantly affect humans and our technology as a result of radiation exposure. Since 2013 Space Environment Technologies (SET) has been conducting observations of the atmospheric radiation environment at aviation altitudes using a small fleet of six instruments. The objective of this work is to improve radiation risk management in air traffic operations. Under the auspices of the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) and Upper-atmospheric Space and Earth Weather eXperiment (USEWX) projects our team is making dose rate measurements on multiple aircraft flying global routes. Over 174 ARMAS and USEWX flights have successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on commercial aviation altitude aircraft that captures the radiation environment resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), Solar Energetic Protons (SEPs), and outer radiation belt energetic electrons. The real-time radiation exposure is measured as an absorbed dose rate in silicon and then computed as an ambient dose equivalent rate for reporting dose relevant to radiative-sensitive organs and tissue in units of microsieverts per hour. ARMAS total ionizing absorbed dose is captured on the aircraft, downlinked in real-time, processed on the ground into ambient dose equivalent rates, compared with NASA's Langley Research Center (LaRC) most recent Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) global radiation climatology model runs, and then made available to end users. Dose rates from flight altitudes up to 56,700 ft. are shown for flights across the planet under a variety of space weather conditions. We discuss several space weather

  5. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.

    1984-12-01

    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  6. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino

    1986-01-01

    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  7. Impacts of climate change for Swiss winter and summer tourism: a general equilibrium analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Thurm, Boris; Vielle, Marc; Vöhringer, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Tourism could be greatly affected by climate change due to its strong dependence on weather. In Switzerland, the sector represents an appreciable share of the economy. Thus, studying climate effects on tourism is necessary for developing adequate adaptation strategies. While most of the studies focused on winter tourism, we investigate the climate change impacts on both winter and summer tourism in Switzerland. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we simulate the impacts of tem...

  8. The hard winter of 1880-1881: Climatological context and communication via a Laura Ingalls Wilder narrative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boustead, Barbara E.

    The Hard Winter of 1880-1881 was featured in the Laura Ingalls Wilder historical fiction account, The Long Winter, as well as in several town histories across the region. Both meteorological records and historical accounts indicate that the winter was particularly long, snowy, and cold. The question of how "hard" a winter is for a given location depends on the climatological context, which relies on an objective characterization of winter severity. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) allows comparison of the winter of 1880-1881 among sites across the region, as well as in the context of the period of record, to quantify its severity. Additionally, investigating the impacts of both the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the central United States provides context for the influence of both a strongly negative NAO and an El Nino event during the winter of 1880-1881. With an understanding of the climatological factors influencing the Hard Winter, along with the context for its severity, a more thorough analysis then was conducted to quantify and describe its severity. The connection of the winter of 1880-1881 to a popular book written by an author who is a cultural icon provides a natural vehicle with which to communicate weather and climate concepts to multiple non-technical audiences. The communication of complex weather and climate concepts is a well-documented challenge. One method to bridge between science concepts and public understanding is to relate those concepts to familiar subjects and stories, including Laura Ingalls Wilder's books. A narrative constructed around the books, particularly The Long Winter, provides a means of audience engagement and interest in weather- and climate-related topics, which was at least partially quantified by surveying audiences of the narrative. Overall, the scientific background, combined with a familiar narrative voice, provides a means to transmit weather and

  9. Cold Weather Pet Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... be an appealing heat source for outdoor and feral cats, but it's deadly. Check underneath your car, ... of protection during the winter months. Livestock, including horses, have their own unique considerations and needs when ...

  10. Environmental Education Tips: Weather Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainard, Audrey H.

    1989-01-01

    Provides weather activities including questions, on weather, heating the earth's surface, air, tools of the meteorologist, clouds, humidity, wind, and evaporation. Shows an example of a weather chart activity. (RT)

  11. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

    2015-05-01

    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-29

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  13. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-02-17

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide consise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: Distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; Natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s as well as selected National average prices; Residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; Crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and A 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree days by city.

  14. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  15. Stamena winter wheat variety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mišić Todor

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Stamena is a winter wheat variety developed at the Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops in Novi Sad, Yugoslavia. It was released by the Federal Commission for varietals Approval in 1999. Stamena was developed by crossing genetically divergent and highly productive parents Lasta and Rodna (Breeders: T. Mišić. N. Mladenov, Z. Jerković and R. Jevtić. Spike is white, smooth, awn less, medium compact with 18-21 spike lets. The grain is vitreous and dark red (Triticum aestivum L. ssp. vulgar e var. lutescens. Stamena is a medium early variety, 1 day earlier than Partizanka and 3 days earlier than Jugoslavija (Table 4. It has excellent resistance to winterkilling, as in very winter hardy Partizanka. The average stem height is 78 cm, with a good resistance to lodging. Stamena has field resistance to leaf rust (Pucce, recondita tritict, horizontal resistance, which is the type of resistance that modern wheat breeding is interested in. The resistance to stem rust (Pucce, graminis tritict is good and to powdery mildew (Erysiphegraminis tritici very good. The 1000 grain mass is about 32 g and volume grain mass 81.3 kg/hi. (Table 2. Stamena is classified in the subgroup A-l. It has excellent milling and baking quality and it belong to the 1st technological group (quality enhancer. The quantity of dry gluten is about 9%. The variety Stamena is a very productive, with the genetic potential for grain above 11 t/ha suitable for growing on fertile and less fertile soils. It has started to be grown commercially in 2000.

  16. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  17. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  18. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  19. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  20. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  1. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Daily Briefing Damage/Fatality/Injury Statistics Forecast Models GIS Data Portal NOAA Weather Radio Publications SKYWARN Storm Spotters StormReady TsunamiReady EDUCATION Be A Force of Nature NWS Education Home ...

  2. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  3. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  4. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  5. Nowcasting, forecasting and hindcasting Harvey and Irma inundation in near-real time using a continental 2D hydrodynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Quinn, N.; Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Schumann, G.; Bates, P.

    2017-12-01

    During an ongoing natural disaster data are required on: (1) the current situation (nowcast); (2) its likely immediate evolution (forecast); and (3) a consistent view post-event of what actually happened (hindcast or reanalysis). We describe methods used to achieve all three tasks for flood inundation during the Harvey and Irma events using a continental scale 2D hydrodynamic model (Wing et al., 2017). The model solves the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations over a regular grid of 1 arcsecond ( 30m). Terrain data are taken from the USGS National Elevation Dataset with known flood defences represented using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset. Channels are treated as sub-grid scale features using the HydroSHEDS global hydrography data set. The model is driven using river flows, rainfall and coastal water levels. It simulates river flooding in basins > 50 km2, and fluvial and coastal flooding everywhere. Previous wide area validation tests show this model to be capable of matching FEMA maps and USGS local models built with bespoke data with hit rates of 86% and 92% respectively (Wing et al., 2017). Boundary conditions were taken from NOAA QPS data to produce nowcast and forecast simulations in near real time, before updating with NOAA observations to produce the hindcast. During the event simulation results were supplied to major insurers and multi-nationals who used them to estimate their likely capital exposure and to mitigate flood damage to their infrastructure whilst the event was underway. Simulations were validated against modelled flood footprints computed by FEMA and USACE, and composite satellite imagery produced by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. For the Harvey event, hit rates ranged from 60-84% against these data sources, but a lack of metadata meant it was difficult to perform like-for-like comparisons. The satellite data also appeared to miss known flooding in urban areas that was picked up in the models. Despite

  6. Probabilistic nowcast of PBL profiles with a single column model and ensemble filter assimilation of surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Hacker, J. P.

    2009-09-01

    A long-term goal of this work is to find an efficient system for probabilistic planetary boundary layer (PBL) nowcasting that can be deployed wherever surface observations are present. One approach showing promise is the use of a single column model (SCM) and ensemble filter (EF) data assimilation techniques. Earlier work showed that surface observations can be an important source of information with an SCM and an EF. Here we extend that work to quantify the deterministic and probabilistic skill of ensemble SCM predictions with added complexity. Although it is appealing to add additional physics and dynamics to the SCM model it is not immediately clear that additional complexity will improve the performance of a PBL nowcasting system based on a simple model. We address this question with regard to treatment of surface assimilation, radiation in the column, and also advection to account for realistic 3D dynamics (a timely WRF prediction). We adopt factor separation analysis to quantify the individual contribution of each model component to the deterministic and probabilistic skill of the system, as well as any beneficial or detrimental interactions between them. Deterministic skill of the system is evaluated through the mean absolute error, and probabilistic skill through the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and the area under the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUR). The BSS is further decomposed into both a reliability and resolution term to understand the trade-offs in different components of probabilistic skill. An alternative system based on climatological covariances and surface observations is used as a reference to assess the real utility of the flow-dependent covariances estimated with the ensemble system. In essence it is a dressing technique, whereby a deterministic 3D mesoscale forecast (e.g. WRF) is corrected with surface forecast errors and covariances computed from a distribution of available historical mesoscale forecasts. The adjusted profile

  7. Pronostico inmediato de tormentas convectivas por radar: una actualizacion Nowcasting of convective storms by radar: an actualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadiel Novo

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Una de las principales aplicaciones del radar meteorológico es el pronóstico inmediato (decenas de minutos a unas pocas horas de antelación de los eventos de precipitación convectiva. Esto reviste gran importancia pues es precisamente en este lapso de tiempo donde son menos efectivos los pronósticos numéricos. Se repasan brevemente algunas de las técnicas de pronóstico inmediato reportadas en los últimos años, haciendo énfasis en aquellas que emplean solamente información de un radar convencional. Se distingue entre las que pronostican el movimiento de las tormentas como un todo y aquellas que permiten distinguir su movimiento interno, señalando sus ventajas y desventajas en situaciones meteorológicas concretas. Como ejemplo se presentan, para un caso de estudio escogido, aplicaciones simples de dos de estas técnicas. Por último se discute la utilidad de la técnica del sistema de referencia móvil para obtener las componentes del viento no observadas a partir de un solo radar Doppler o incluso un radar convencional, y sus implicaciones para la obtención de magnitudes termodinámicas.One of the main applications of the meteorological radar is the nowcasting (some tens of minutes to some hours forward of convective precipitation events. It has a great importance since this is the space of time in which the numerical forecasting is less effective. Some of the nowcasting techniques reported in the last years are reviewed shortly, making emphasis in those that use only information from a conventional radar. A distinction is made among those that predict the total movement of the storms and those that allow distinguishing their internal movement, pointing out their advantages and disadvantages in concrete meteorological situations. It is presented, for a chosen case of study, simple applications of two of these techniques. Finally, the utility of the moving frame of reference technique for obtaining the not observed wind components

  8. Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities [1]. For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [2], and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions [1], and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of

  9. The future of winter tourism in Planina pod Golico in the lights of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matej Ogrin

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Warmer winters have brought the ski area Španov vrh near Jesenice in decline. New climate conditions put plans of conventional ski tourism in a different point of a view. The article analysis trends of air temperature and snow conditions in winter months at Planina pod Golico to fnd out if weather conditions assure development of classical winter tourism at ski area Španov vrh. As alternative to conventional way of tourism, the article recommends some new, more sustainable solutions for development of tourism, which could bring renaissance to Planina pod Golico.

  10. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China--An econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. 3-Dimensional Weather Visualisation

    OpenAIRE

    Nimitz, Sarah; Forsyth, Duke; Knittle, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Senior Design Project presentation and report for CS 4624 Multimedia/Hypertext Capstone. Two Zip archives also are provided, with software for each of the front and back end parts of the system. Project deliverables are provided, including a detailed description of the creation of a polling and parsing system for keeping track of severe weather warnings, as delivered by the National Weather Service, and an interface to allow the user to view a representation of Doppler radar data in three ...

  12. Optimal Cross Hedging Winter Canola

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Seon-Woong; Brorsen, B. Wade; Yoon, Byung-Sam

    2014-01-01

    Winter canola in the southern Great Plains has shown large price fluctuations and there have been questions about which futures market could be used to reduce price risk. Our results indicate that the optimal futures contract to cross hedge winter canola is soybean oil futures.

  13. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  14. Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Patrick J.; Mullin, Megan

    2016-04-01

    As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

  15. Surviving winter: Food, but not habitat structure, prevents crashes in cyclic vole populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnsen, Kaja; Boonstra, Rudy; Boutin, Stan; Devineau, Olivier; Krebs, Charles J; Andreassen, Harry P

    2017-01-01

    Vole population cycles are a major force driving boreal ecosystem dynamics in northwestern Eurasia. However, our understanding of the impact of winter on these cycles is increasingly uncertain, especially because climate change is affecting snow predictability, quality, and abundance. We examined the role of winter weather and snow conditions, the lack of suitable habitat structure during freeze-thaw periods, and the lack of sufficient food as potential causes for winter population crashes. We live-trapped bank voles Myodes glareolus on 26 plots (0.36 ha each) at two different elevations (representing different winter conditions) in southeast Norway in the winters 2013/2014 and 2014/2015. We carried out two manipulations: supplementing six plots with food to eliminate food limitation and six plots with straw to improve habitat structure and limit the effect of icing in the subnivean space. In the first winter, all bank voles survived well on all plots, whereas in the second winter voles on almost all plots went extinct except for those receiving supplemental food. Survival was highest on the feeding treatment in both winters, whereas improving habitat structure had no effect. We conclude that food limitation was a key factor in causing winter population crashes.

  16. A new methodology for pixel-quantitative precipitation nowcasting using a pyramid Lucas Kanade optical flow approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Hong, Yang

    2015-10-01

    Short-term high-resolution Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) has important implications for navigation, flood forecasting, and other hydrological and meteorological concerns. This study proposes a new algorithm called Pixel-based QPN using the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which comprises three steps: employing a Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PLKOF) to estimate precipitation advection, projecting rainy clouds by considering the advection and evolution pixel by pixel, and interpolating QPN imagery based on the space-time continuum of cloud patches. The PPLK methodology was evaluated with 2338 images from the geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) of China and compared with two other advection-based methods, i.e., the maximum correlation method and the Horn-Schunck Optical Flow scheme. The data sample covered all intensive observations since the launch of FY-2F, despite covering a total of only approximately 10 days. The results show that the PPLK performed better than the algorithms used for comparison, demonstrating less time expenditure, more effective cloud tracking, and improved QPN accuracy.

  17. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-10-04

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  18. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  19. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-13

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  20. Thermal balance of cattle grazing winter range: model application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keren, E N; Olson, B E

    2006-05-01

    Beef cattle grazing semiarid foothill rangeland of the Northern Rockies during winter may be exposed to cold temperatures and high winds while grazing pastures with low nutritional value. Cattle can physiologically and behaviorally respond to the changing environment to lower their metabolic requirements and reduce the effects of cold exposure. Requirements of grazing cattle may be overpredicted with models developed in controlled settings that do not account for energy-conserving behaviors. We refined a simple thermal balance equation to model heat exchange of free-ranging cattle. We accounted for the complex interactions between animal behavior and the changing natural environment by applying the insulation characteristics of the cattle's tissue and coat to a simple geometric shape of an asymmetric ellipsoid at different orientations to the sun and wind. We compared the model predictions with heat production measured in 3 studies, and in all cases the model predictions were similar to those reported. Model simulations indicate behaviors, such as lying and orientation to the sun, mitigated the effects of extreme weather. For many combinations of winter weather variables, metabolic requirements increased only slightly due to cold exposure of mature beef cattle in a near-maintenance state. The results indicate that solar radiation contributes strongly to the thermal balance of a cow. Thus, previous models that do not account for the irradiative environment may overestimate metabolic requirements of cattle acclimated to grazing winter range.

  1. Using Citizen Science and Crowdsourcing via Aurorasaurus as a Near Real Time Data Source for Space Weather Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, E.; Heavner, M.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.; Lalone, N.; Clayon, J.; Case, N.

    2014-12-01

    Aurorasaurus is on the cutting edge of space science, citizen science, and computer science simultaneously with the broad goals to develop a real-time citizen science network, educate the general public about the northern lights, and revolutionize real-time space weather nowcasting of the aurora for the public. We are currently in the first solar maximum with social media, which enables the technological roots to connect users, citizen scientists, and professionals around a shared global, rare interest. We will introduce the project which has been in a prototype mode since 2012 and recently relaunched with a new mobile and web presence and active campaigns. We will showcase the interdisciplinary advancements which include a more educated public, disaster warning system applications, and improved real-time ground truth data including photographs and observations of the Northern Lights. We will preview new data which validates the proof of concept for significant improvements in real-time space weather nowcasting. Our aim is to provide better real-time notifications of the visibility of the Northern Lights to the interested public via the combination of noisy crowd-sourced ground truth with noisy satellite-based predictions. The latter data are available now but are often delivered with significant jargon and uncertainty, thus reliable, timely interpretation of such forecasts by the public are problematic. The former data show real-time characteristic significant rises (in tweets for instance) that correlate with other non-real-time indices of auroral activity (like the Kp index). We will discuss the source of 'noise' in each data source. Using citizen science as a platform to provide a basis for deeper understanding is one goal; secondly we want to improve understanding of and appreciation for the dynamics and beauty of the Northern Lights by the public and scientists alike.

  2. Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults Expert Information from Healthcare Professionals Who Specialize in the Care of ... thick clothing. Think about getting your thermals! –Essential winter wears: hats, gloves or preferably mittens, winter coat, ...

  3. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are at increased risk for overexposure ... associated with sun exposure. "It's easy to associate winter with frostbite and windburn, but most people are ...

  4. Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connie Harrington; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

    2010-01-01

    Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during midwinter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling...

  5. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  6. Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevitz, Kathryn; Madera, Robbie; Newbern, Claire; Lojo, José; Johnson, Caroline C

    Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

  7. Spaceborne weather radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghini, Robert; Kozu, Toshiaki

    1990-01-01

    The present work on the development status of spaceborne weather radar systems and services discusses radar instrument complementarities, the current forms of equations for the characterization of such aspects of weather radar performance as surface and mirror-image returns, polarimetry, and Doppler considerations, and such essential factors in spaceborne weather radar design as frequency selection, scanning modes, and the application of SAR to rain detection. Attention is then given to radar signal absorption by the various atmospheric gases, rain drop size distribution and wind velocity determinations, and the characteristics of clouds, as well as the range of available estimation methods for backscattering, single- and dual-wavelength attenuation, and polarimetric and climatological characteristics.

  8. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.; Berg, M.P.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassinglethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonablywarm air (2–10 °C for 2–14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  9. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  10. Changes in winter warming events in the Nordic Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Isaksen, Ketil; Haugen, Jan Erik; Bjerke, Jarle Werner; Tømmervik, Hans

    2015-04-01

    In recent years winter warming events are frequently reported from Arctic areas. Extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, cause severe ecological disturbance and great challenges for Arctic infrastructure. For example, the formation of ground ice due to winter rain or melting prevents reindeer from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The infrastructure may be affected by avalanches and floods resulting from intense snowmelt. The aim of our analysis is to study changes in warm spells during winter in the Nordic Arctic Region, here defined as the regions in Norway, Sweden and Finland north of the Arctic circle (66.5°N), including the Arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Within this study area we have selected the longest available high quality observation series with daily temperature and precipitation. For studying future climate we use available regionally downscaled scenarios. We analyse three time periods: 1) the past 50-100 years, 2) the present (last 15 years, 2000-2014) and 3) the future (next 50-100 years). We define an extended winter season (October-April) and further divide it into three subseasons: 1) Early winter (October and November), 2) Mid-winter (December, January and February) and 3) Late-winter (March and April). We identify warm spells using two different classification criteria: a) days with temperature above 0°C (the melting temperature); and b) days with temperature in excess of the 90th percentile of the 1985-2014 temperature for each subseason. Both wet and dry warm spells are analysed. We compare the results for the mainland stations (maritime and inland stations) with the Arctic islands. All stations have very high frequency of warm weather events in the period 1930-1940s and for the last 15 years (2000-2014). For the most recent period the largest increase in number of warm spells are observed at the northernmost stations. We also find a continuation of this

  11. Multiple weather factors affect apparent survival of European passerine birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Salewski

    Full Text Available Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and

  12. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  13. Vancouver winters: Environmental influences on inpatient adult orthopaedic trauma demographics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noordin, S.; Masri, B. A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare the pattern of adult inpatient orthopaedic injuries admitted at three Vancouver hospitals following one of the worst winter snowstorms in the region with the preceding control winter period. Methods: The surveillance study was conducted at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 2007 to 2010. Inpatient adult admissions for orthopaedic injuries at three hospitals were recorded, including age, gender, anatomic location of injury, type of fracture (open or closed), fixation method (internal versus external fixation), and length of acute care hospital stay. Comparisons between admissions during this weather pattern and admission during a previous winter with minimal snow were made. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Of the 511 patients admitted under Orthopaedic trauma service during the significant winter snowstorms of December 2008 - January 2009, 100 (19.6%) (CI: 16.2%-23.2%) were due to ice and snow, whereas in the preceding mild winter only 18 of 415 (4.3%) (CI: 2.5%-6.8%) cases were related to snow (p<0.05). Ankle and wrist fractures were the most frequent injuries during the index snow storm period (p<0.05). At all the three institutions, 97 (96.5%) fractures were closed during the snowstorm as opposed to 17 (95%) during the control winter period. Internal fixation in 06 (89%) fractures as opposed to external fixation in 12 (11%) patients was the predominant mode of fixation across the board during both time periods. Conclusion: The study demonstrated a significantly higher inpatient orthopaedic trauma volume during the snowstorm more rigorous prospective studies need to be designed to gain further insight to solving these problems from a public health perspective. (author)

  14. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  15. Space Weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honary, Farideh

    2014-05-01

    Efficient air traffic management depends on reliable communications between aircraft and the air traffic control centres at all times. At high latitudes, and especially on polar routing, VHF ground infrastructure does not exist and the aircraft have to rely on HF radio for communications. HF relies on reflections from the ionosphere to achieve long distance communications. Unfortunately the high latitude ionosphere is affected by space weather events. During such events HF radio communication can be severely disrupted and aircraft are forced to use longer low latitude routes with consequent increased flight time, fuel consumption and cost. This presentation describes a new research programme at the University of Lancaster in collaboration with the University of Leicester, Solar Metrics Ltd and Natural Resources Canada for the development of a nowcasting and forecasting HF communications tool designed for the particular needs of civilian airlines. This project funded by EPSRC will access a wide variety of solar and interplanetary measurements to derive a complete picture of space weather disturbances affecting radio absorption and reflection

  16. Unusually amplified summer or winter indoor levels of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gammage, R.B.; Dudney, C.S.; Wilson, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    The ratios of winter/summer indoor radon levels for houses in different regions of the southern Appalachians are characterized by individual log-normal distributions with geometric means both above and below unity. In some counties and cities, subpopulations of houses have unusually exaggerated winter/summer ratios of indoor radon, as well as high indoor radon levels, during periods of either warm or cool weather. It is proposed that in many instances, houses are communicating with larger than normal underground reservoirs of radon-bearing air in hilly karst terrains; differences between the outdoor and underground air temperatures are believed to provide density gradients producing aerostatic pressure differences for seasonally directed underground transport and subsequently elevated indoor radon. These seasonal movements of air are analogous to the well-known underground chimney effects, which produce interzonal flows of air inside caves

  17. An analysis of US propane markets, winter 1996-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-06-01

    In late summer 1996, in response to relatively low inventory levels and tight world oil markets, prices for crude oil, natural gas, and products derived from both began to increase rapidly ahead of the winter heating season. Various government and private sector forecasts indicated the potential for supply shortfalls and sharp price increases, especially in the event of unusually severe winter weather. Following a rapid runup in gasoline prices in the spring of 1996, public concerns were mounting about a possibly similar situation in heating fuels, with potentially more serious consequences. In response to these concerns, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) participated in numerous briefings and meetings with Executive Branch officials, Congressional committee members and staff, State Energy Offices, and consumers. EIA instituted a coordinated series of actions to closely monitor the situation and inform the public. This study constitutes one of those actions: an examination of propane supply, demand, and price developments and trends.

  18. Black brant from Alaska staging and wintering in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derksen, Dirk V.; Bollinger, K.S.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, J.S.; Miyabayashi, Y.

    1996-01-01

    Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nest in colonies in arctic Canada, Alaska, and Russia (Derksen and Ward 1993, Sedinger et al. 1993). Virtually the entire population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula (Bellrose 1976) before southward migration (Dau 1992) to winter habitats in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California (Subcommittee on Black Brant 1992). A small number of black brant winter in Japan, Korea, and China (Owen 1980). In Japan 3,000–5,000 brant of unknown origin stop over in fall, and a declining population (in the northern islands (Brazil 1991, Miyabayashi et al. 1994). Here, we report sightings of brant in Japan that were marked in Alaska and propose a migration route based on historical and recent observations and weather patterns.

  19. Adverse weather impacts on arable cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Damages due to extreme or adverse weather strongly depend on crop type, crop stage, soil conditions and management. The impact is largest during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar, and requires a modelling approach to capture the interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The hypothesis is that extreme and adverse weather events can be quantified and subsequently incorporated in current crop models. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, a regional crop model was used to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. Risk profiles and associated return levels were obtained by fitting generalized extreme value distributions to block maxima for air humidity, water balance and temperature variables. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields and yield losses for the major arable crops in Belgium, notably winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape, sugar beet, potato and maize at the field (farm records) to regional scale (statistics). The average daily vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growing season is significantly lower (p < 0.001) and has a higher variability before 1988 than after 1988. Distribution patterns of VPD and ET0 have relevant impacts on crop yields. The response to rising temperatures depends on the crop's capability to condition its microenvironment. Crops short of water close their stomata, lose their evaporative cooling potential and ultimately become susceptible to heat stress. Effects of heat stress therefore have to be combined with moisture availability such as the precipitation deficit or the soil water balance. Risks of combined heat and moisture deficit stress appear during the summer. These risks are subsequently related to crop damage. The methodology of defining

  20. Weather at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruggeman, David Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-04-19

    This report gives general information about how to become a meteorologist and what kinds of jobs exist in that field. Then it goes into detail about why weather is monitored at LANL, how it is done, and where the data can be accessed online.

  1. Weather, Climate, and You.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blai, Boris, Jr.

    Information from the American Institute of Medical Climatologists on human responses to weather and climatic conditions, including clouds, winds, humidity, barometric pressure, heat, cold, and other variables that may exert a pervasive impact on health, behavior, disposition, and the level of efficiency with which individuals function is reviewed.…

  2. Rainy Weather Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Karen

    1996-01-01

    Presents ideas on the use of rainy weather for activities in the earth, life, and physical sciences. Topics include formation and collision of raindrops, amount and distribution of rain, shedding of water by plants, mapping puddles and potholes, rainbow formation, stalking storms online, lightning, and comparing particles in the air before and…

  3. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  4. Energy and the weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roggen, M.

    2003-01-01

    Energy companies need to take the weather forecast into account these days. Proper anticipation of wind, sunshine and rain may yield a considerable profit for a programme manager, a trader or a renewable energy producer. Meteo Consult has made the energy market one of its priority issues and is developing all kinds of services to advise and assist the sector [nl

  5. Accessing Space Weather Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, D.; Weiss, M.; Immer, E. A.; Patrone, D.; Potter, M.; Barnes, R. J.; Colclough, C.; Holder, R.

    2009-12-01

    To meet the needs of our technology based society, space weather forecasting needs to be advanced and this will entail collaboration amongst research, military and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast. In this presentation VITMO, the Virtual Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere Observatory will be used as a prototype for a generalized system as a means to bring together a set of tools to access data, models and online collaboration tools to enable rapid progress. VITMO, available at http://vitmo.jhuapl.edu/, currently provides a data access portal for researchers and scientists to enable finding data products as well as access to tools and models. To further the needs of space weather forecasters, the existing VITMO data holdings need to be expanded to provide additional datasets as well as integrating relevant models and model output. VITMO can easily be adapted for the Space Weather domain in its entirety. In this presentation, we will demonstrate how VITMO and the VITMO architecture can be utilized as a prototype in support of integration of Space Weather forecasting tools, models and data.

  6. Midlatitude weather systems on Mars: Is there a hemispheric asymmetry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, J. R.

    1992-01-01

    The Viking Lander meteorology observations confirmed that midlatitude weather systems are present in the Northern Hemisphere of Mars during the autumn, winter, and early spring. These systems have properties consistent with a development through baroclinic instability of the wintertime zonal-mean circulation. It is known that the weather systems must be of importance for the zonal-mean circulation by virtue of their heat and momentum transports. Observations show that they are associated with dust raising, and they must be involved in the transport of dust; the weather systems almost certainly must act to produce significant water transports as well. Recent simulations with the ARC Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) show that the heat transports by the weather system (and by the zonal-mean circulation) during northern winter can be very substantial: large enough to significantly reduce the CO2 condensation at polar latitudes. This could be largely responsible for the observed early spring halt in the north polar cap recession and for the presence of westerly winds near the cap edge during this season.

  7. Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

  8. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China – An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. - Highlights: • We examine the impacts of the surface ozone exposure on winter wheat yield in China. • An econometric method is used to measure the ozone impacts. • The results conclude that surface ozone is harmful to winter wheat yield in China. • We confirm that stress conditions such as drought and air particles can mitigate the adverse effect of ozone. - Surface ozone pollution is harmful to winter wheat yield in China by considering socio-economic determinants, weather, and other stress conditions like drought and air particles.

  9. Food preferences of winter bird communities in different forest types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swen C Renner

    Full Text Available Food availability for forest birds is a function of habitat type, forest management regime, and season. In winter, it is also impacted by variations in the weather. In the current study we assessed the food preferences of wild bird populations in two types of forest (spruce and beech during the months of November 2010 to April 2011 in the Schwäbische Alb Biodiversity Exploratory, south-western Germany. Our aim was to investigate whether local bird communities preferred fat-rich, carbohydrate-rich or wild fruits and to determine how forest structure, seasonality and local weather conditions affected food preferences. We found higher bird activity in beech forests for the eleven resident species. We observed a clear preference for fat-rich food for all birds in both forest types. Snow cover affected activity at food stations but did not affect food preferences. Periods of extreme low temperatures increased activity.

  10. Food preferences of winter bird communities in different forest types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, Swen C; Baur, Sofia; Possler, Astrid; Winkler, Julia; Kalko, Elisabeth K V; Bates, Paul J J; Mello, Marco A R

    2012-01-01

    Food availability for forest birds is a function of habitat type, forest management regime, and season. In winter, it is also impacted by variations in the weather. In the current study we assessed the food preferences of wild bird populations in two types of forest (spruce and beech) during the months of November 2010 to April 2011 in the Schwäbische Alb Biodiversity Exploratory, south-western Germany. Our aim was to investigate whether local bird communities preferred fat-rich, carbohydrate-rich or wild fruits and to determine how forest structure, seasonality and local weather conditions affected food preferences. We found higher bird activity in beech forests for the eleven resident species. We observed a clear preference for fat-rich food for all birds in both forest types. Snow cover affected activity at food stations but did not affect food preferences. Periods of extreme low temperatures increased activity.

  11. Experimental Winter Coccidiosis in Sheltered and Unsheltered Calves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niilo, L.

    1970-01-01

    Hereford calves, seven months old, were inoculated orally with sporulated oocysts of Eimeria bovis and E. zurnii and housed in a heated building together with uninoculated animals. Duplicate groups of similarly treated animals were left unsheltered in cold winter weather. Clinical coccidiosis developed in most of the inoculated calves, sheltered and unsheltered. There was no marked difference in the severity of the infections. The sheltered uninoculated contact animals remained clinically unaffected, but mild coccidiosis developed in the unsheltered controls. The results suggest that cold may increase the host's susceptibility to clinical coccidiosis, but may not increase the severity of the signs once the clinical infection is established. PMID:4245999

  12. Weatherization Works: An interim report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    1993-11-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation is the first comprehensive evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program since 1984. The evaluation was designed to accomplish the following goals: Estimate energy savings and cost effectiveness; Assess nonenergy impacts; Describe the weatherization network; Characterize the eligible population and resources; and Identify factors influencing outcomes and opportunities for the future. As a national program, weatherization incorporates considerable diversity due to regional differences. Therefore, evaluation results are presented both in aggregate and for three climate regions: cold, moderate and hot.

  13. Estimating the impact of wintry weather on transportation in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juga, I.; Rauhala, J.; Vajda, A.

    2010-09-01

    Wintry weather conditions have high impact on transportation. Sub-zero temperatures combined to snowfall result in traffic jams and increased accident rate. Dense snowfall causes poor grip between the road surface and tires and reduces the visibility, thus increasing the risk for severe pile-ups on highways. Low temperature and snowfall have a strong negative impact also on railway traffic and aviation, as experienced in Europe during winter 2009/10. Many big airfields in Central Europe were closed during several days and thousands of people had to spend the night at the airport or in the hotels nearby. The estimated total costs from a single major snowfall event can climb up to 1.3 billion pounds (1.5 billion euro), as happened in UK on 1-2 February 2009. By investigating the effect of hazardous winter weather conditions on different transport modes the worst situations can be identified and impact thresholds for different weather parameters and their combination can be assessed. In this study we estimate the impact thresholds for snowfall, wind gust and temperature as well as for their combination, the blizzard. This work is based on an impact review collected from literature and media reports as well as on local studies concerning the link between snowfall and traffic accidents for example. From the study on six winters it appears for example that a snowfall of 10 cm/24 h resulted in a double car accident rate on average in southern Finland. Such situations can be regarded as high impact cases (peak days of traffic accidents). It is estimated that climate change and global warming will decrease the average yearly number of wintry days in Europe. Even the northern part will probably have a shorter period of snow cover during the coming decades. However, the variability between different winters will remain and cold air outbreaks with even heavy snowfall can occasionally occur also during mild winters. Several studies have shown that the more uncommon some

  14. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  15. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  16. Whether weather affects music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aplin, Karen L.; Williams, Paul D.

    2012-09-01

    The creative output of composers, writers, and artists is often influenced by their surroundings. To give a literary example, it has been claimed recently that some of the characters in Oliver Twist and A Christmas Carol were based on real-life people who lived near Charles Dickens in London [Richardson, 2012]. Of course, an important part of what we see and hear is not only the people with whom we interact but also our geophysical surroundings. Of all the geophysical phenomena to influence us, the weather is arguably the most significant because we are exposed to it directly and daily. The weather was a great source of inspiration for artists Claude Monet, John Constable, and William Turner, who are known for their scientifically accurate paintings of the skies [e.g., Baker and Thornes, 2006].

  17. Kazakhstan Space Weather Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryakunova, Olga

    2012-07-01

    Kazakhstan experimental complex is a center of experimental study of space weather. This complex is situated near Almaty, Kazakhstan and includes experimental setup for registration of cosmic ray intensity (neutron monitor) at altitude of 3340 m above sea level, geomagnetic observatory and setup for registration of solar flux density with frequency of 1 and 3 GHz with 1 second time resolution. Results of space environment monitoring in real time are accessible via Internet. This experimental information is used for space weather investigations and different cosmic ray effects. Almaty mountain cosmic ray station is one of the most suitable and sensitive stations for investigation and forecasting of the dangerous situations for satellites; for this reason Almaty cosmic ray station is included in the world-wide neutron monitor network for the real-time monitoring of the space weather conditions and European Database NMDB (www.nmdb.eu). All data are represented on the web-site of the Institute of Ionosphere (www.ionos.kz) in real time. Since July, 2006 the space environment prediction laboratory represents the forecast of geomagnetic activity every day on the same site (www.ionos.kz/?q=en/node/21).

  18. A Real-Time California Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System: Skill Assessment, User Products, and Transition from Research to Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrara, J. D.; Chao, Y.; Chai, F.; Zhang, H.

    2016-02-01

    The real-time California coastal ocean nowcast/forecast system is described. The model is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and covers the entire California coastal ocean with a horizontal resolution of 3 km and 40 vertical layers. The atmospheric forcing is derived from the operational regional atmospheric model forecasts. The lateral boundary conditions are provided by the operational ocean model forecasts. A multi-scale 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme is used to assimilate both in situ (e.g., vertical profiles of temperature and salinity) and remotely sensed data from both satellite (e.g., sea surface temperature and sea surface height) and land-based platforms (e.g., surface current). The performance of our nowcast/forecast system is evaluated in real-time by a number of metrics that are published as soon as they become available. User tools and products have been developed for both general users and super-users (e.g., NOAA Office of Response and Restoration and USCG). Recent results comparing the 3DVAR with the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) using Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) will be presented. Preliminary results coupling the ROMS circulation model with a biogeochemistry/ecosystem model (i.e., CoSiNE) will also discussed. Cloud computing services (e.g., Microsoft, Google) are now being tested to increase the reliability and timeliness in order to be accepted as a truly operational system in the near future.

  19. Study of frontal weather system using satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, J.; Ershad, S.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan which is situated in the south Asian sub continent, has a peculiar climatological position. It is one of the few countries in the world, which undergo a complete transformation from summer to winter season. However this project only pertains to the winter weather conditions in Pakistan. During winter, the land masses cool off rapidly as compared to the seas and so high pressure cells are developed over land causing, weak anti-cyclonic circulation over the country. In between these cells of anti-cyclonic flow of wind, there are zones of convergence, which offer a good breeding place for low-pressure waves. The low-pressure waves are similar to the extra tropical depressions and approach and approach Pakistan from west. From the same reason these are locally called the western Disturbances. Consequently the focus of study is on the extra tropical cyclones which originate along the boundary between polar continental and tropical or polar maritime and tropical maritime air masses. The extra tropical cyclones (also called western disturbances and westerly waves.) which are embedded in westerly flow of air move across north of Pakistan are usually originate from the Mediterranean sea. These systems consist of two types of fronts i.e. warm and cold fronts. In fact these systems can be traced right from the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. The location of frontal weather is generally associated with the surrounding synoptic situation, geographical position of the westerly wave, location of subtropical jet stream, steering wind level etc. although the satellite imageries are quite helpful for forecasting the frontal weather over our region however the weather charts (both surface and upper air ) and jet maps are also very helpful for this purpose

  20. Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

    2012-01-01

    All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.

  1. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  2. The impacts of temperature anomalies and political orientation on perceived winter warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCright, Aaron M.; Dunlap, Riley E.; Xiao, Chenyang

    2014-12-01

    Although perceptions of common weather phenomena moderately align with instrumental measurements of such phenomena, the evidence that weather or climatic conditions influence beliefs about anthropogenic climate change is mixed. This study addresses both foci, which are important to scholars who investigate human-environment interactions and observers who expect greater exposure to weather or climate extremes to translate into stronger support for climate change adaptive measures and mitigative policies. We analyse the extent to which state-level winter temperature anomalies influence the likelihood of perceiving local winter temperatures to be warmer than usual and attributing these warmer temperatures mainly to global warming. We show that actual temperature anomalies influence perceived warming but not attribution of such warmer-than-usual winter temperatures to global warming. Rather, the latter is influenced more by perceived scientific agreement; beliefs about the current onset, human cause, threat and seriousness of global warming; and political orientation. This is not surprising given the politicization of climate science and political polarization on climate change beliefs in recent years. These results suggest that personal experience with weather or climate variability may help cultivate support for adaptive measures, but it may not increase support for mitigation policies.

  3. Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKellar, Ann E; Marra, Peter P; Hannon, Susan J; Studds, Colin E; Ratcliffe, Laurene M

    2013-06-01

    Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east-west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.

  4. Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

    2018-03-01

    Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

  5. Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slangen, A. B. A.; Schmeits, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    The development and verification of a probabilistic forecast system for winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is described. We have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) to develop the probabilistic forecast equations. The MOS system consists of 32 logistic regression equations, i.e. for two forecast periods (0-6 h and 6-12 h), four 90×80 km2 regions around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and four 6-h time periods. For the predictand quality-controlled Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) total lightning data were used. The potential predictors were calculated from postprocessed output of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models - i.e. the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model - and from an ensemble of advected lightning and radar data (0-6 h projections only). The predictors that are selected most often are the HIRLAM Boyden index, the square root of the ECMWF 3-h and 6-h convective precipitation sum, the HIRLAM convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two radar advection predictors. An objective verification was done, from which it can be concluded that the MOS system is skilful. The forecast system runs at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on an experimental basis, with the primary objective to warn aircraft pilots for potential aircraft induced lightning (AIL) risk during winter.

  6. The influence of weather on fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis. [in human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchenko, V. I.

    1974-01-01

    Analysis of fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis indices by month showed an increase in the activity of these processes from winter to summer (1967-1968). At all seasons of the year, fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis increase during weather of the cyclonic type with passage of fronts and sharp fluctuations in meteorological factors in the atmosphere.

  7. The effect of inclement weather on ankle fracture management in an Irish trauma unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Neill, B J

    2013-09-01

    Ireland is unfamiliar with extreme weather conditions. Such conditions occurred in winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, with much of the country being affected by snow and ice. We reviewed the effect that these conditions had on the treatment of ankle fractures in our trauma unit.

  8. IDRC Bulletin — Winter 2017

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-01-16

    Jan 16, 2018 ... In this issue, read the research results from our Safe and Inclusive Cities program and don't forget that the Joint Canada-Israel Health Research Program 2018 call is now open. IDRC Bulletin logo IDRC Bulletin — Winter 2017. Featured this month. View of Port-au-Prince in Haiti, March 30, 2016. Safe and ...

  9. Learning through a Winter's Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this…

  10. Winter School on Coding Theory

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 8. Winter School on Coding Theory. Information and Announcements Volume 8 Issue 8 August 2003 pp 111-111. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/08/0111-0111. Resonance ...

  11. Nuclear Winter: The Continuing Debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-23

    prospect of human annihilation. Speculation about the environmental results of a ’long darkness’ were considered by Paul Ehrlich .10 The term nuclear winter...Washington D.C., 1983 The Cold and the Dark: The World after Nuclear War, by Paul Ehrlich , et al. New York: Norton, 1984. (QH545 N83 C66 1983k Caldicott

  12. Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.

    2011-12-01

    The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

  13. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  14. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mark

    2016-05-01

    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  15. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  16. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  17. Winter movement dynamics of black brant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

    2007-01-01

    Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

  18. Wintering ecology of adult North American ospreys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washburn, Brian E.; Martell, Mark S.; Bierregaard, Richard O.; Henny, Charles J.; Dorr, Brian S.; Olexa, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    North American Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) typically migrate long distances to their wintering grounds in the tropics. Beyond the general distribution of their wintering range (i.e., the Caribbean, South America, and Central America), very little is known about the wintering ecology of these birds. We used satellite telemetry to determine the duration of wintering period, to examine the characteristics of wintering areas used by Ospreys, and to quantify space use and activity patterns of wintering Ospreys. Adult Ospreys migrated to wintering sites and exhibited high wintering site fidelity among years. Overall, Ospreys wintered on river systems (50.6%) more than on lakes (19.0%), and use of coastal areas was (30.4%) intermediate. Ospreys remained on their wintering grounds for an average of 154 d for males and 167 d for females. Locations of wintering Ospreys obtained via GPS-capable satellite telemetry suggest these birds move infrequently and their movements are very localized (i.e., 2 and 1.4 km2, respectively. Overall, our findings suggest wintering adult North American Ospreys are very sedentary, demonstrating a pattern of limited daily movements and high fidelity to a few select locations (presumably roosts). We suggest this wintering strategy might be effective for reducing the risk of mortality and maximizing energy conservation.

  19. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  20. SPoRT: Transitioning NASA and NOAA Experimental Data to the Operational Weather Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2013-01-01

    Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. With the ever-broadening application of real-time high resolution satellite data from current EOS, Suomi NPP, and planned JPSS and GOES-R sensors to weather forecast problems, significant challenges arise in the acquisition, delivery, and integration of the new capabilities into the decision making process of the operational weather community. For polar orbiting sensors such as MODIS, AIRS, VIIRS, and CRiS, the use of direct broadcast ground stations is key to the real-time delivery of the data and derived products in a timely fashion. With the ABI on the geostationary GOES-R satellite, the data volumes will likely increase by a factor of 5-10 from current data streams. However, the high data volume and limited bandwidth of end user facilities presents a formidable obstacle to timely access to the data. This challenge can be addressed through the use of subsetting techniques, innovative web services, and the judicious selection of data formats. Many of these approaches have been implemented by SPoRT for the delivery of real-time products to NWS forecast offices and other weather entities. Once available in decision support systems like AWIPS II, these new data and products must be integrated into existing and new displays that allow for the integration of the data with existing operational products in these systems. SPoRT is leading the way in demonstrating this enhanced capability. This paper will highlight the ways SPoRT is overcoming many of the challenges presented by the enormous data

  1. Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven I-Jy Chien

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

  2. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  3. The 2016 Arctic Winter Games: “Now we do what we do best”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Carina Bregnholm; Thomsen, Robert Chr.

    2016-01-01

    A few days before the opening ceremony of the 2016 Arctic Winter Games (AWG) in Nuuk, Greenland, weather reports looked bleak. A spring blizzard was on its way and expected to peak the day prior to the opening ceremony. That very Saturday, 1250 participants were set to fly to Greenland’s capital ...... city – the highest number of civilians arriving in one day by aircraft in the island’s history. Now, however, bad weather was jeopardizing this milestone in Greenlandic aviation history and, along with that, the successful execution of the upcoming games....

  4. Classification guide: Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games classification guide is designed to provide National Paralympic Committees (NPCs) and International Federations (IFs) with information about the classification policies and procedures that will apply to the Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games.

  5. Space Weather Activities in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Gallagher, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Talk given at Space Weather Seminar at Irish National Emergency Coordinating Centre (NECC), Office of Emergency Planning, Department of Defence, Kildare Street, Dublin on Thursday 3 July, 2014. Agenda 14.00: Welcome and Introduction– Brigitta O’Doherty, Office of Emergency Planning 14.05: Space Weather – What are the issues ? - Mr. William J Murtagh, Programm Coordinator, Space Weather Prediction Centre, National Oceanic and Observation Administration, US Department of Commerce 15...

  6. Chemical weathering of flat continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maffre, Pierre; Goddéris, Yves; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Carretier, Sébastien; Moquet, Jean-Sébastien; Donnadieu, Yannick; Labat, David; Vigier, Nathalie

    2017-04-01

    Mountain uplift is often cited as the main trigger of the end Cenozoic glacial state. Conversely, the absence of major uplift is invoked to explain the early Eocene warmth. This hypothesis relies on the fact that mountain uplift increases the supply of "fresh" silicate rocks through enhanced physical erosion, and boosts CO2 consumption by chemical weathering. Atmospheric CO2 —and therefore climate— then adjust to compensate for the changes in weatherability and keep the geological carbon cycle balanced (Walker's feedback). Yet, orography also strongly influences the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Consequently, building mountains does not only change the weathering regime in the restricted area of the orogen, but also modifies the worldwide distribution of the weathering flux. We conduct a numerical experiment in which we simulate the climate of the present day world, with all mountain ranges being removed. Up-to-date weathering and erosion laws (West, 2012; Carretier et al., 2014) are then used to quantify the global weathering for a "flat world". Specifically, the parameters of the weathering law are first carefully calculated such that the present day distribution of the weathering fluxes matches the riverine geochemical data. When removing mountains, we predict a warmer and wetter climate, especially in geographic spots located in the equatorial band. The calculated response of the global weathering flux ranges from an increase by 50% to a decrease by 70% (relative to the present day with mountains). These contrasted responses are pending on the parameterisation of the weathering model, that makes it more sensitive to reaction rate (kinetically-limited mode) or to rock supply by erosion (supply-limited mode). The most likely parameterisation —based on data-model comparison— predicts a decrease of CO2 consumption by weathering by 40% when mountains are removed. These results show that (1) the behaviour of the weathering engine depends on the

  7. Leadership in American Indian Communities: Winter Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metoyer, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Winter lessons, or stories told in the winter, were one of the ways in which tribal elders instructed and directed young men and women in the proper ways to assume leadership responsibilities. Winter lessons stressed the appropriate relationship between the leader and the community. The intent was to remember the power and purpose of that…

  8. A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luedeling, Eike; Brown, Patrick H

    2011-05-01

    Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between -155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between -10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change.

  9. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

    1964-01-01

    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  10. Winter: Public Enemy #1 for Accessibility EXPLORING NEW SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Morales

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Winter is expensive. For countries situated in the northern hemisphere, closer to the north pole, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, winter requires the acquisition of special clothing, car tires, and sports equipment, snow removal or plowing from the streets, and is associated with the presence of ice patches, along with accidents and illnesses associated with cold weather. Fall-related injuries due to winter conditions have been estimated to cost the Canadian health care system $ 2.8 billion a year. However, the greatest cost snow entails every year is the social isolation of seniors as well as wheelchair and walker users. This results from the lack of accessibility, as it is difficult to circulate on snow-covered streets even for the able-bodied. Social isolation has been associated with other negative consequences such as depression and even suicide. This exploratory pilot study aimed at finding possible and feasible design solutions for improving the accessibility of sidewalks during winter conditions. For this project we used a Co-Design methodology. Stakeholders (City of Quebec representatives, designers, urban planners, occupational therapists, and adults with motor, visual and aural disabilities were invited to participate in the design process. In order to meet the objectives, two main steps were carried out: 1. Conception of the design solutions (through Co-design sessions in a Focus-group format with seniors, designers and researchers; and 2. Validation of the design solutions (consultation with experts and stakeholders. The results are a wide variety of possible and feasible solutions, including the reorganisation of the snow-removal procedure and the development of heated curb cuts. This project was funded by the City of Quebec in partnership with the Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale (CIRRIS. Ultimately, the project sought to explore possible solutions to be implemented

  11. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  12. Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Collaud Coen

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2 measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l. have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each synoptic weather type to the aerosol concentration was deduced from the aerosol annual cycles while the planetary boundary layer (PBL influence was estimated by means of the diurnal cycles. Since aerosols are scavenged by precipitation, the diurnal cycle of the CO concentration was also used to identify polluted air masses. SO2 and NOx concentrations were used as precursor tracers for new particle formation and growth, respectively. The aerosol optical parameters and number concentration show elevated loadings during advective weather types during the December–March period and for the convective anticyclonic and convective indifferent weather types during the April–September period. This study confirms the consensus view that the JFJ is mainly influenced by the free troposphere during winter and by injection of air parcels from the PBL during summer. A more detailed picture is, however, drawn where the JFJ is completely influenced by free tropospheric air masses in winter during advective weather types and largely influenced by the PBL also during the night in summer during the subsidence weather type. Between these two extreme situations, the PBL influence at the JFJ depends on both the time of year and the synoptic weather type. The fraction of PBL air transported to the JFJ was estimated by the relative increase of the specific humidity and CO.

  13. Nowcasting using Microblog Data

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson Naesseth, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The explosion of information and user generated content made publicly available through the internet has made it possible to develop new ways of inferring interesting phenomena automatically. Some interesting examples are the spread of a contagious disease, earth quake occurrences, rainfall rates, box office results, stock market fluctuations and many many more. To this end a mathematical framework, based on theory from machine learning, has been employed to show how frequencies of relevant k...

  14. Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

  15. Weather dependency of energy demands for space heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiter, E.R.

    During the past two years we have developed and tested a computer model that calculates the requirements of energy for space heating by a community in its dependence on daily weather parameters, such as temperature, wind and radiation. The input requirements for the model consist of a building census that permits one to arrange the heated (or air-conditioned) structures of a community into various types according to building characteristics and occupant habit patterns. Test runs of the model in Greeley, Colorado, and Cheyenne, Wyoming, during the winter 1976/77 yielded very satisfactory results.

  16. Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud

  17. Effect of Postsowing Compaction on Cold and Frost Tolerance of North China Plain Winter Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyun Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Improper postsowing compaction negatively affects soil temperature and thereby cold and frost tolerance, particularly in extreme cold weather. In North China Plain, the temperature falls to 5 degrees below zero, even lower in winter, which is period for winter wheat growing. Thus improving temperature to promote wheat growth is important in this area. A field experiment from 2013 to 2016 was conducted to evaluate effects of postsowing compaction on soil temperature and plant population of wheat at different stages during wintering period. The effect of three postsowing compaction methods—(1 compacting wheel (CW, (2 crosskill roller (CR, and (3 V-shaped compacting roller after crosskill roller (VCRCR—on winter soil temperatures and relation to wheat shoot growth parameters were measured. Results showed that the highest soil midwinter temperature was in the CW treatment. In the 20 cm and 40 cm soil layer, soil temperatures were ranked in the following order of CW > VCRCR > CR. Shoot numbers under CW, CR, and VCRCR treatments were statistically 12.40% and 8.18% higher under CW treatment compared to CR or VCRCR treatments at the end of wintering period. The higher soil temperature under CW treatment resulted in higher shoot number at the end of wintering period, apparently due to reduced shoot death by cold and frost damage.

  18. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  19. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  20. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2018-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  1. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  2. Public Health System Response to Extreme Weather Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Mark D; Hunter, Jennifer C; Yang, Jane E; Crawley, Adam W; Aragón, Tomás J

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather events, unpredictable and often far-reaching, constitute a persistent challenge for public health preparedness. The goal of this research is to inform public health systems improvement through examination of extreme weather events, comparing across cases to identify recurring patterns in event and response characteristics. Structured telephone-based interviews were conducted with representatives from health departments to assess characteristics of recent extreme weather events and agencies' responses. Response activities were assessed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities framework. Challenges that are typical of this response environment are reported. Forty-five local health departments in 20 US states. Respondents described public health system responses to 45 events involving tornadoes, flooding, wildfires, winter weather, hurricanes, and other storms. Events of similar scale were infrequent for a majority (62%) of the communities involved; disruption to critical infrastructure was universal. Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities considered most essential involved environmental health investigations, mass care and sheltering, surveillance and epidemiology, information sharing, and public information and warning. Unanticipated response activities or operational constraints were common. We characterize extreme weather events as a "quadruple threat" because (1) direct threats to population health are accompanied by damage to public health protective and community infrastructure, (2) event characteristics often impose novel and pervasive burdens on communities, (3) responses rely on critical infrastructures whose failure both creates new burdens and diminishes response capacity, and (4) their infrequency and scale further compromise response capacity. Given the challenges associated with extreme weather events, we suggest opportunities for organizational learning and

  3. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...... and precipitating and non-precipitating clouds. Another method uses the difference in the motion field of clutter and precipitation measured between two radar images. Furthermore, the direction of the wind field extracted from a weather model is used. The third method uses information about the refractive index...

  4. Fire Weather Index application in north-western Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, D.; Ciccarelli, N.; Gottero, F.; Francesetti, A.; Pelfini, F.; Pelosini, R.

    2008-05-01

    Piedmont region is located in North-Western Italy and is surrounded by the alpine chain and by the Appennines. The region is covered by a wide extension of forests, mainly in its mountain areas (the forests cover 36% of the regional territory). Forested areas are interested by wildfire events. In the period 1997-2005 Piedmont was interested by an average 387 forest fires per year, covering an average 1926 ha of forest per year. Meteorological conditions like long periods without precipitation contribute to create favourable conditions to forest fire development, while the fire propagation is made easier by the foehn winds, frequently interesting the region in winter and spring particularly. The meteorological danger index FWI (Fire Weather Index) was developed by Van Wagner (1987) for the Canadian Forestry Service, providing a complete description of the behaviour of the different forest components in response to the changing weather conditions. We applied the FWI to the Piedmont region on warning areas previously defined for fire management purposes. The meteorological data-set is based on the data of the very-dense non-GTS network of weather stations managed by Arpa Piemonte. The thresholds for the definition of a danger scenarios system were defined comparing historical FWI data with fires occurred on a 5 years period. The implementation of a prognostic FWI prediction system is planned for the early 2008, involving the use of good forecasts of weather parameters at the station locations obtained by the Multimodel SuperEnsemble post-processing technique.

  5. Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.P. Powell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide, therefore, anticipating and calculating their effects on crop yields is important for topics ranging from food security to the economic viability of biomass products. Given the local nature of weather, particularly precipitation, effects are best measured at a local level. This paper analyzes weather events at the level of the farm for a specific crop, winter wheat. Once it has been established that extreme events are expected to continue occurring at historically high levels for farming locations throughout the Netherlands, the effects of those events on wheat yields are estimated while controlling for the other major input factors affecting yields. Econometric techniques are applied to an unbalanced panel data set of 334 farms for a period of up to 12 years. Analyzes show that the number of days with extreme high temperatures in Dutch wheat growing regions has significantly increased since the early 1900s, while the number of extreme low temperature events has fallen over that same period. The effects of weather events on wheat yields were found to be time specific in that the week in which an event occurred determined its effect on yields. High temperature events and precipitation events were found to significantly decrease yields.

  6. Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

    2015-10-01

    Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

  7. PV powering a weather station for severe weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, W. Jr. [Florida Solar Energy Center, Cocoa, FL (United States); Schmidt, J. [Joe Schmidt, Inc., Miami, FL (United States)

    1997-12-31

    A natural disaster, such as Hurricane Andrew, destroys thousands of homes and businesses. The destruction from this storm left thousands of people without communications, potable water, and electrical power. This prompted the Florida Solar Energy Center to study the application of solar electric power for use in disasters. During this same period, volunteers at the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, Florida and the Miami Office of the National Weather Service (NWS) were working to increase the quantity and quality of observations received from home weather stations. Forecasters at NHC have found surface reports from home weather stations a valuable tool in determining the size, strength and course of hurricanes. Home weather stations appear able to record the required information with an adequate level of accuracy. Amateur radio, utilizing the Automatic Packet Report System, (APRS) can be used to transmit this data to weather service offices in virtually real time. Many weather data collecting stations are at remote sites which are not readily serviced by dependable commercial power. Photovoltaic (solar electric) modules generate electricity and when connected to a battery can operate as a stand alone power system. The integration of these components provides an inexpensive standalone system. The system is easy to install, operates automatically and has good communication capabilities. This paper discusses the design criteria, operation, construction and deployment of a prototype solar powered weather station.

  8. A High-Resolution 3D Weather Radar, MSG, and Lightning Sensor Observation Composite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Malte; Senf, Fabian; Wapler, Kathrin; Simmer, Clemens

    2013-04-01

    Within the research group 'Object-based Analysis and SEamless prediction' (OASE) of the Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research programme (HerZ), a data composite containing weather radar, lightning sensor, and Meteosat Second Generation observations is being developed for the use in object-based weather analysis and nowcasting. At present, a 3D merging scheme combines measurements of the Bonn and Jülich dual polarimetric weather radar systems (data provided by the TR32 and TERENO projects) into a 3-dimensional polar-stereographic volume grid, with 500 meters horizontal, and 250 meters vertical resolution. The merging takes into account and compensates for various observational error sources, such as attenuation through hydrometeors, beam blockage through topography and buildings, minimum detectable signal as a function of noise threshold, non-hydrometeor echos like insects, and interference from other radar systems. In addition to this, the effect of convection during the radar 5-minute volume scan pattern is mitigated through calculation of advection vectors from subsequent scans and their use for advection correction when projecting the measurements into space for any desired timestamp. The Meteosat Second Generation rapid scan service provides a scan in 12 spectral visual and infrared wavelengths every 5 minutes over Germany and Europe. These scans, together with the derived microphysical cloud parameters, are projected into the same polar stereographic grid used for the radar data. Lightning counts from the LINET lightning sensor network are also provided for every 2D grid pixel. The combined 3D radar and 2D MSG/LINET data is stored in a fully documented netCDF file for every 5 minute interval, and is made ready for tracking and object based weather analysis. At the moment, the 3D data only covers the Bonn and Jülich area, but the algorithms are planed to be adapted to the newly conceived DWD polarimetric C-Band 5 minute interval volume scan strategy. An

  9. Aviation weather : FAA and the National Weather Service are considering plans to consolidate weather service offices, but face significant challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    The National Weather Services (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also pr...

  10. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    2013-12-01

    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  11. Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng

    2018-02-01

    Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

  12. Crop coefficients for winter wheat in a sub-humid climate regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærsgaard, Jeppe Hvelplund; Plauborg, Finn; Mollerup, Mikkel

    2008-01-01

    coefficients for a winter wheat crop growing under standard conditions, i.e. not short of water and growing under optimal agronomic conditions, were estimated for a cold sub-humid climate regime. One of the two methods used to estimate ET from a reference crop required net radiation (Rn) as input. Two sets...... of coefficients were used for calculating Rn. Weather data from a meteorological station was used to estimate Rn and ET from the reference crop. The winter wheat ET was measured using an eddy covariance system during the main parts of the growing seasons 2004 and 2005. The meteorological data and field...... measurements were quality controlled and discarded from the analysis if flagged for errors. Daily values of ET from the reference crop and winter wheat calculated from hourly values were used to calculate the crop coefficients. Average daily crop coefficients were in the 1.1-1.15 range during mid...

  13. Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

    2018-03-01

    Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

  14. Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

    2016-08-01

    Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

  15. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  16. Sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction to the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis into the Brazilian Global Model Data Assimilation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamiris B. Campos

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor associated with the deficient methodologies used in its quantification and the imperfect physics parameterizations incorporated in the models, there are significant uncertainties in characterizing the moisture field. The process responsible for incorporating the information provided by observation into the numerical weather prediction is denominated data assimilation. The best result in atmospheric moisture depend on the correct choice of the moisture control variable. Normalized relative humidity and pseudo-relative humidity are the variables usually used by the main weather prediction centers. The objective of this study is to assess the sensibility of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies to choose moisture control variable in the data assimilation scheme. Experiments using these variables are carried out. The results show that the pseudo-relative humidity improves the variables that depend on temperature values but damage the moisture field. The opposite results show when the simulation used the normalized relative humidity. These experiments suggest that the pseudo-relative humidity should be used in the cyclical process of data assimilation and the normalized relative humidity should be used in non-cyclic process (e.g., nowcasting application in high resolution.

  17. Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; Xie, Yulong; Kraucunas, Ian

    2018-01-01

    Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

  18. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  19. A further study of spectral energetics in the winter atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, T.-C.

    1982-01-01

    The contributions of standing (time-mean) and transient (time-departure) waves to the atmospheric spectral energetics are analyzed using the NMC (National Meteorological Center) data of winter 1976-1977. It is found that the standing long waves are responsible for the major horizontal sensible heat transport and also for the significant horizontal momentum transport. Furthermore, the major contents of eddy available energy and eddy kinetic energy of standing waves are in the long-wave regime. However, the spectral energetics analysis indicates that the standing long waves are energetically less efficient than the transient long and short waves. It is suggested that the lower efficiency of the standing long waves in the atmospheric energetics may be one of the physical factors causing the underforecast of the standing long waves in the numerical weather prediction models.

  20. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Document Server

    Corinne Pralavorio

    2016-01-01

    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  1. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jón Einar Jónsson

    Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

  2. Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results

  3. Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

  4. Prescribed burning weather in Minnesota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney W. Sando

    1969-01-01

    Describes the weather patterns in northern Minnesota as related to prescribed burning. The prevailing wind direction, average wind speed, most persistent wind direction, and average Buildup Index are considered in making recommendations.

  5. Road weather management performance metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-29

    This report presents the results of a study to identify appropriate measures of performance that can be attributed to the Federal Highway Administrations (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) products and activities. Specifically, the stud...

  6. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. Weather data communication and utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcfarland, R. H.; Nickum, J. D.; Mccall, D. L.

    1983-01-01

    The communication of weather data to aircraft is discussed. Problems encountered because of the great quantities of data available and the limited capacity to transfer this via radio link to an aircraft are discussed. Display devices are discussed.

  8. Food Safety for Warmer Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Subscribe July 2014 Print this issue Fight Off Food Poisoning Food Safety for Warmer Weather En español Send ... handle food properly to avoid the misery of food poisoning. It can be hard to keep foods safe ...

  9. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  10. The science of space weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, Jonathan P

    2008-12-13

    The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

  11. KZTL Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  12. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  13. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  14. Space weather and risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lappalainen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The term space weather is used for the solar driven variability in particle and electromagnetic conditions of the near-Earth space that may harm the performance of ground-based and space-borne technology. The European Union (EU and the European Space Agency (ESA have started a common programme called the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES. Many of the GMES operational services will rely on technology prone to space weather phenomena. For long-term environmental monitoring this is not a problem, but for applications of risk management in emergency situations the impact of space weather should be considered and evaluated. In this paper, we discuss how ESA's previous activity together with European national initiatives in the space weather area can be used to support GMES and how EU could participate in this work in its Framework Programmes and within the European Research Area (ERA.

  15. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  16. paza Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  17. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  18. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  19. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  20. Weather Features Associated with Aircraft Icing Conditions: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Fernández-González

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk.

  1. Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

    2017-04-01

    central European mean sea level pressure fields into "Großwettertypes" (Beck 2000) the relationships between meteorological variables and stroke frequencies are increasing. Mainly temperature variables (Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) appear to be important particularly in winter and summer. Moreover distinct correlations of similar magnitude are obtained with other variables like wind speed or precipitation for specific weather types (e.g. westerly type). In how far these initial findings do really point to additional health impacts beyond temperature effects is subject of ongoing work.

  2. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

    2013-01-01

    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  3. Seasonality of the links between weather and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davídkovová, Hana; Kyselý, Jan

    2015-04-01

    While there is strong evidence that weather variations, particularly temperature extremes, affect cardiovascular (CVD) health in mid-latitudes, limited understanding is related to the seasonality of the links between weather and CVD mortality/morbidity. The present study examines observed seasonal and interannual fluctuations in the effects of weather conditions on variations in CVD mortality/morbidity, and how excess winter mortality (its magnitude as well as position of the peak within season) is linked to the interannual variability of weather conditions, using long-term mortality and morbidity (hospital admissions) data in the population of the Czech Republic since 1994. We also evaluate changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of the CVD mortality and morbidity over time, and whether they are related to epidemics of acute respiratory infections and/or weather characteristics (such as the annual temperature range). The identified links are particularly useful as they may provide a source of predictability of the magnitude and timing of the winter CVD mortality/morbidity peak using seasonal climate predictions.

  4. The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'En; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

    2016-01-01

    The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

  5. An industry perspective on the use of seasonal forecasts and weather information for evaluating sensitivities in traded commodity supply chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domeisen, Daniela; Slavov, Georgi

    2015-04-01

    Weather information on seasonal timescales is crucial to various end users, from the level of subsistence farming to the government level. Also the financial industry is ever more aware of and interested in the benefits that early and correctly interpreted forecast information provides. Straight forward and often cited applications include the estimation of rainfall and temperature anomalies for drought - prone agricultural areas producing traded commodities, as well as some of the rather direct impacts of weather on energy production. Governments, weather services, as well as both academia and private companies are working on tailoring climate and weather information to a growing number of customers. However, also other large markets, such as coal, iron ore, and gas, are crucially dependent on seasonal weather information and forecasts, while the needs are again very dependent on the direction of the predicted signal. So far, relatively few providers in climate services address these industries. All of these commodities show a strong seasonal and weather dependence, and an unusual winter or summer can crucially impact their demand and supply. To name a few impacts, gas is crucially driven by heating demand, iron ore excavation is dependent on the available water resources, and coal mining is dependent on winter temperatures and rainfall. This contribution will illustrate and provide an inside view of the type of climate and weather information needed for the various large commodity industries.

  6. Effects of drought and prolonged winter on Townsend's ground squirrel demography in shrubsteppe habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horne, Beatrice; Olson, Gail S.; Schooley, Robert L.; Corn, Janelle G.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1997-01-01

    During a mark–recapture study of Townsend's ground squirrels (Spermophilus townsendii) on 20 sites in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area, Idaho, in 1991 through 1994, 4407 animals were marked in 17639 capture events. This study of differences in population dynamics of Townsend's ground squirrels among habitats spanned a drought near the extreme of the 130-yr record, followed by prolonged winter conditions.Townsend's ground squirrels have a short active season (≈4 mo) in which to reproduce and store fat for overwintering. Their food consists largely of succulent grasses and forbs in this dry shrubsteppe and grassland habitat. The drought in the latter half of the 1992 active season produced early drying of Sandberg's bluegrass (Poa secunda) and was associated with low adult and juvenile body masses prior to immergence into estivation/hibernation. The following prolonged winter was associated with late emergence of females in 1993. Early-season body masses of adults were low in 1993 relative to 1992, whereas percentage of body fat in males was relatively high. These weather patterns in spring 1992 and winter 1993 also resulted in reduced adult persistence through the ≈7-mo inactive period, especially for adult females, and near-zero persistence of >1200 juveniles. Consequently, densities of Townsend's ground squirrels across the 20 livetrap sites declined.The demographic effects of drought and prolonged winter lasted at least through the subsequent breeding season. Adult females that survived these weather extremes produced fewer emergent young per female than did adult females prior to the event. Prior to the drought/prolonged winter, yearling female body masses were higher than, or indistinguishable from, those of adults. Females produced in 1993 had lower body masses as yearlings than did adult females.Demographic response to the drought and prolonged winter varied with habitat; ground squirrels in sagebrush habitat showed less decline

  7. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    Meteorological conditions play a fundamental role during entire chestnut tree vegetative cycle. Chestnut trees are well adapted to mean year temperatures of 8-15°C, requires monthly mean temperatures greater than 10°C during 6 months (Gomes-Laranjo et al. 2008) and its pollen only germinates at relatively high temperatures of 27-30°C (Bounous, 2002). Photosynthesis of an adult tree is highly dependent of temperature. Photosynthesis is maximal at 24-28°C but it is inhibited for temperatures greater than 32°C (Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2005, 2006). Furthermore, there are significant differences between chestnut trees cultivated in northfaced orchads in relation to those cultivated in the southfaced and between leaves from different sides of the chestnut canopy because they receive different amounts of radiant energy and consequently they grow under different mean daily air temperature. The objective of this work was to assess the role of weather on chestnut production variability. This study was performed for the 28 years period defined between 1980 and 2007 and it was based on annual values of chestnut production and total area of production, at national level, provided by INE, the National Institute of Statistics of Portugal. The meteorological data used was provided by Meteored (http://www.meteored.com/) and includes daily values of precipitation, wind speed, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. All meteorological variables were tested as potential predictors by means of a simple correlation analysis. Multiple time intervals were considered in this the analysis, which consist in moving intervals of constant length and forward and backward evolutionary intervals. Results show that some meteorological variables present significant correlation with chestnut productivity particularly in the most relevant periods of the chestnut tree cycle, like the previous winter, the flushing phase and the maturation period. A regression model based on the winter (January

  8. Road salt application planning tool for winter de-icing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Perera, Nandana

    2015-05-01

    Road authorities, who are charged with the task of maintaining safe, driveable road conditions during severe winter storm events are coming under increasing pressure to protect salt vulnerable areas (SVAs). For the purpose of modelling urban winter hydrology, the temperature index method was modified to incorporate ploughing and salting considerations and was calibrated using winter field data from two sites in Southern Ontario and validated using data collected from a section of Highway 401 - Canada's busiest highway. The modified temperature index model (MTIM) accurately predicted salt-induced melt (R2 = 0.98 and 0.99, RMSE = 19.9 and 282.4 m3, CRM = -0.003 and 0.006 for calibration and validation sites respectively), and showed a demonstrable ability to calculate the Bare Pavement Regain Time (BPRT). The BPRT is a key factor on road safety and the basis for many winter maintenance performance standards for different classes of highways. Optimizing salt application rate scenarios can be achieved using the MTIM with only two meteorological forecast inputs for the storm event - readily available on-line through the Road Weather Information System (RWIS) - and can serve as a simple yet effective tool for winter road maintenance practitioners seeking to optimize salt application rates for a given storm event in salt vulnerable areas.

  9. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

  10. The influence of weather on road safety.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2009-01-01

    The weather has an influence on road safety. Weather conditions partly determine the road conditions and the driver's behaviour. Most studies into the relation between weather and road safety are about the situation during rainfall. However, many other weather conditions are serious influences: fog,

  11. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  12. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  13. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  14. Improving estimates of real-time traffic speeds during weather for winter maintenance performance measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    Vianey Leos Barajas (orcid.org/0000-0001-8016-773X), Zhonglei Wang (orcid.org/0000-0001-6712-0750), Mark Kaiser (orcid.org/0000-0003-0449-0388), and Zhengyuan Zhu (orcid.org/0000-0002-2266-0646) : This report describes two related projects, the secon...

  15. El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James W.; Jones, James W.; Kiker, Clyde F.; Hodges, Alan W.

    1999-01-01

    Florida's mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.

  16. Animals in Winter. Young Discovery Library Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sairigne, Catherine

    This book is written for children 5 through 10. Part of a series designed to develop their curiosity, fascinate them and educate them, this volume introduces the habits of a variety of animals during the winter. Topics include: (1) surviving during winter, including concepts such as migration, hibernation, and skin color change; (2) changing…

  17. Belichten Zantedeschia in winter biedt perspectief

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwen, van P.J.; Trompert, J.P.T.

    2011-01-01

    Zantedeschia produceert in de Nederlandse winter geen bloemen. In de praktijk wordt met assimilatiebelichting wel bloei in de winter verkregen met de cultivar 'Crystal Blush'. Onderzoek door PPO laat zien welke hoeveelheid licht nodig is en dat ook gekleurde Zantedeschia's van een goede kwaliteit

  18. Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badash, Lawrence

    2001-03-01

    The nuclear winter phenomenon is used to illustrate the many paths by which scientific advice reaches decision makers in the United States government. Because the Reagan administration was hostile to the strategic policy that the scientific discovery seemed to demand, the leading proponent of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan, used his formidable talent for popularization to reach a larger audience.

  19. 43 CFR 423.37 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Winter activities. 423.37 Section 423.37 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, DEPARTMENT OF THE....37 Winter activities. (a) You must not tow persons on skis, sleds, or other sliding devices with a...

  20. 36 CFR 1002.19 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter activities. 1002.19... RECREATION § 1002.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice skating, sledding, innertubing.... (c) Failure to abide by area designations or activity restrictions established under this section is...

  1. 36 CFR 2.19 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter activities. 2.19... RESOURCE PROTECTION, PUBLIC USE AND RECREATION § 2.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice... designations or activity restrictions established under this section is prohibited. ...

  2. Chapter 7: Migration and winter ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Jean-Luc E. Cartron

    2000-01-01

    The willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) is a Neotropical migrant that breeds in North America, but winters in Central and northern South America. Little specific information is known about migration and wintering ecology of the southwestern willow flycatcher (E. t. extimus) (Yong and Finch 1997). Our report applies principally...

  3. Interim Report 'Winter smog and traffic'.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemen, H.; Blom, T.; Bogaard, van den C.; Boluyt, N.; Bree, van L.; Brunekreef, B.; Hoek, G.; Zee, van der S.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents a halfway score of the research project "Winter smog and Traffic", one of the themes of the research programme "Air Pollution and Health". A state of the art is presented of the health effects associated with exposure to winter smog and of the toxicological effects caused by the

  4. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  5. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  6. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  7. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  8. Preliminary Cost Benefit Assessment of Systems for Detection of Hazardous Weather. Volume II. Appendices,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-07-01

    the system. Data on losses are reported for nine separate weather hazards: floods, tornadoes, thunderstorm, hurricanes, windstorms , severe winter...34,500 e. Estimated savings resulting from tie down of equipment, securing areas in/around buildings, and taping of numerous windows : $2,500 Total...D.C. 262 Glass , R.I., Craven, R.B., Bergman, D.J., Stall, B.J., Horowitz, N., Kenndt, P., & Winkle, J., 1980, Injuries from the Wichita Falls Tornado

  9. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN from a Geostationary Satellite.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Liu

    Full Text Available The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC; the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS; and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK, which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6. The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

  10. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

  11. There's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing: climate, weather and active school transportation in Toronto, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Raktim; Faulkner, Guy

    2012-07-10

    Climatic conditions may enable or deter active school transportation in many North American cities, but the topic remains largely overlooked in the existing literature. This study explores the effect of seasonal climate (i.e., fall versus winter) and weekly weather conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on active travelling to school across different built and policy environments. Home-to-school trips by 11-12-year-old children in the City of Toronto were examined using data from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Binomial logistic regressions were estimated to explore the correlates of the choice of active (i.e., walking) versus non-active (i.e., private automobile, transit and school bus) mode for school trips. Climate and weather-related variables were not associated with choice of school travel mode. Children living within the sidewalk snow-plough zone (i.e., in the inner-suburban neighbourhoods) were less likely to walk to school than children living outside of the zone (i.e., in the inner-city neighbourhoods). Given that seasonality and short-term weather conditions appear not to limit active school transportation in general, built environment interventions designed to facilitate active travel could have benefits that spill over across the entire year rather than being limited to a particular season. Educational campaigns with strategies for making the trip fun and ensuring that the appropriate clothing choices are made are also warranted in complementing built environment modifications.

  12. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  13. Aluminium toxicity in winter wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabó A.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aluminium is the most frequent metal of the earth crust; it occurs mainly as biologically inactive, insoluble deposit. Environmental problems, industrial contaminations and acid rains increase the soil acidity, leading to the mobilization of Al. Half of the world’s potential arable lands are acidic; therefore, Al-toxicity decreases crop productivity. Wheat is a staple food for 35% of the world population. The effects of Al-stress (0.1 mM were studied on winter wheat; seedlings were grown hydroponically, at acidic pH. After two weeks, the root weight was decreased; a significant difference was found in the P- and Ca-content. The shoot weight and element content changed slightly; Al-content in the root was one magnitude higher than in the shoot, while Al-translocation was limited. The root plasma membrane H+-ATPase has central role in the uptake processes; Al-stress increased the Mg2+-ATPase activity of the microsomal fraction.

  14. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  15. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... NWS Watch, Warning, Advisory Display NWS Warnings and Advisories on this map become active links to IWIN ... Flood Watch Coastal/Flood Warning Small Stream Flood Advisory Blizzard Warning Winter Storm Watch Winter Storm Warning ...

  16. The oceanography of winter leads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morison, J. H.; McPhee, M. G.; Curtin, T. B.; Paulson, C. A.

    1992-07-01

    Leads in pack ice have long been considered important to the thermodynamics of the polar regions. A winter lead affects the ocean around it because it is a density source. As the surface freezes, salt is rejected and forms more dense water which sinks under the lead. This sets up a circulation with freshwater flowing in from the sides near the surface and dense water flowing away from the lead at the base of the mixed layer. If the mixed layer is fully turbulent, this pattern may not occur; rather, the salt rejected at the surface may simply mix into the surface boundary layer. In either event the instability produced at the surface of leads is the primary source of unstable buoyancy flux and, as such, exerts a strong influence on the mixed layer. Here as many as possible of the disparate and almost anecdotal observations of lead oceanography are assembled and combined with theoretical arguments to predict the form and scale of oceanographic disturbances caused by winter leads. The experimental data suggest the velocity disturbances associated with lead convection are about 1-5 cm s-1. These appear as jets near the surface and the base of the mixed layer when ice velocities across the lead are less than about 5 cm s-1. The salinity disturbances are about 0.01 to 0.05 psu. Scaling arguments suggest that the geostrophic currents set up by the lead density disturbances are also of the order of 1-5 cm s-1. The disturbances are most obvious when freezing is rapid and ice velocity is low because the salinity and velocity disturbances in the upper ocean are not smeared out by turbulence. In this vein, lead convection may be characterized at one extreme as free convection in which the density disturbance forces the circulation. At the other extreme, lead convection may be characterized as forced convection in which the density disturbance is mixed rapidly by boundary layer turbulence. The lead number Lo, which is the ratio of the pressure term to the turbulence term in the

  17. Half a Century of Schladming Winter Schools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pietschmann, H.

    2012-01-01

    The Schladming Winter Schools have started as early as in 1962. Over the times the yearly Schools have closely followed the actual developments in nuclear, particle, or more generally, in theoretical physics. Several new achievements have first been dealt with in length in the lectures at the Schladming Winter School. It has seen very prominent lecturers, among them a series of Nobel laureates (some of them reporting on their works even before they got their Nobel prizes). I will try to highlight the role of the Schladming Winter Schools in pro- mulgating new developments of theoretical physics in depth at the lectures given over the past 50 years. (author)

  18. Fire Weather Index application in north-western Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cane

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Piedmont region is located in North-Western Italy and is surrounded by the alpine chain and by the Appennines. The region is covered by a wide extension of forests, mainly in its mountain areas (the forests cover 36% of the regional territory. Forested areas are interested by wildfire events. In the period 1997–2005 Piedmont was interested by an average 387 forest fires per year, covering an average 1926 ha of forest per year. Meteorological conditions like long periods without precipitation contribute to create favourable conditions to forest fire development, while the fire propagation is made easier by the foehn winds, frequently interesting the region in winter and spring particularly. The meteorological danger index FWI (Fire Weather Index was developed by Van Wagner (1987 for the Canadian Forestry Service, providing a complete description of the behaviour of the different forest components in response to the changing weather conditions. We applied the FWI to the Piedmont region on warning areas previously defined for fire management purposes. The meteorological data-set is based on the data of the very-dense non-GTS network of weather stations managed by Arpa Piemonte. The thresholds for the definition of a danger scenarios system were defined comparing historical FWI data with fires occurred on a 5 years period. The implementation of a prognostic FWI prediction system is planned for the early 2008, involving the use of good forecasts of weather parameters at the station locations obtained by the Multimodel SuperEnsemble post-processing technique.

  19. Evaluating the use of high-resolution numerical weather forecast for debris flow prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Bartsotas, Nikolaos S.; Borga, Marco; Kallos, George

    2015-04-01

    The sudden occurrence combined with the high destructive power of debris flows pose a significant threat to human life and infrastructures. Therefore, developing early warning procedures for the mitigation of debris flows risk is of great economical and societal importance. Given that rainfall is the predominant factor controlling debris flow triggering, it is indisputable that development of effective debris flows warning procedures requires accurate knowledge of the properties (e.g. duration, intensity) of the triggering rainfall. Moreover, efficient and timely response of emergency operations depends highly on the lead-time provided by the warning systems. Currently, the majority of early warning systems for debris flows are based on nowcasting procedures. While the latter may be successful in predicting the hazard, they provide warnings with a relatively short lead-time (~6h). Increasing the lead-time is necessary in order to improve the pre-incident operations and communication of the emergency, thus coupling warning systems with weather forecasting is essential for advancing early warning procedures. In this work we evaluate the potential of using high-resolution (1km) rainfall fields forecasted with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model (RAMS/ICLAMS), in order to predict the occurrence of debris flows. Analysis is focused over the Upper Adige region, Northeast Italy, an area where debris flows are frequent. Seven storm events that generated a large number (>80) of debris flows during the period 2007-2012 are analyzed. Radar-based rainfall estimates, available from the operational C-band radar located at Mt Macaion, are used as the reference to evaluate the forecasted rainfall fields. Evaluation is mainly focused on assessing the error in forecasted rainfall properties (magnitude, duration) and the correlation in space and time with the reference field. Results show that the forecasted rainfall fields captured very well the magnitude and

  20. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the ..... in vertical motion. • Frictional Forces: In addition to the above forces that tend to produce acceleration, there are forces that retard the motion. These are the frictional forces primarily active near the surface.

  1. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  2. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    weather and climate prediction. His interests include understanding variability and predictability of all tropical phenomena including the monsoon. B N Goswami .... change the global average annual mean surface temperature Ts' the external solar forcing ..... Colombia, Toronto, London, Sydney. p 532, 1981. •. A Miller, J C ...

  3. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  4. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  5. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1)…

  6. Weather delay costs to trucking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  7. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  8. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B N Goswami is with the. Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of. Science, Bangalore. After his PhD in Plasma Physics he was attracted to this field by the challenges in weather and climate prediction. His interests include understanding variability and predictability of all tropical phenomena.

  9. Analysis of Satellite AIS Data to Derive Weather Judging Criteria for Voyage Route Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michio Fujii

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The operational limitations are discussed at the IMO as a part of the second generation intact stability criteria. Since it is a first attempt to introduce operational efforts into safety regulations, comprehensive discussions are necessary to realize practically acceptable ones. Therefore this study investigates actual navigation routes of container ships and pure car carriers in the trans-North Pacific Ocean in winter, because they are prone to suffer significant parametric roll which is one of stability failure modes. Firstly, interviews are made to shipmasters who have experiences to have operated the subject ships to identify major elements for route selection in the North Pacific Ocean. Secondly, sufficient number of actual navigation records is collected from Satellite AIS data to derive the weather criteria for the route selection in severe weather condition. Finally, shipmaster’s on-board decision-making criteria are discussed by analysing the ship tracking data and weather data.

  10. Management of waterfowl shooting during periods of severe weather in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis, M. B.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available During prolonged periods of severe weather waterfowl habitats are affected by snow or ice. Recreational users of the countryside can move waterbirds off prime feeding areas, potentially resulting in reductions in body condition, at a time when energy reserves are key to overwinter survival and subsequent breeding success. Over the last 30 years the British Association for Shooting and Conservation has been closely involved, along with the government and other conservation NGOs, in developing and implementing a criteria–driven process for defining severe weather and managing waterfowl shooting during it in order to minimise unnecessary disturbance to overwintering waterbirds. The system works well and is widely respected and applauded by conservation agencies. There are increasing efforts to bring more countryside activities, including dog walking, bird watching/ringing and other wetland users, into the system so as to reduce further unnecessary waterfowl disturbance during difficult winter weather.

  11. Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

  12. Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  13. Habitat characteristics of wintering Wood Warbler Phylloscopus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Habitat characteristics of wintering Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix in the Centre Region of Cameroon: conservation implications. Taku Awa II, Tsi A Evaristus, Robin C Whytock, Tsetagho Guilain, John Mallord ...

  14. VT Mean Winter Precipitation - 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) ClimatePrecip_PRECIPW7100 includes mean winter precipitation data (October through March) for Vermont (1971-2000). It's a raster dataset derived...

  15. Winter cooling in the northern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Prasad, T.G.

    The upper thermo-haline structure and the surface meteorological parameters of the central and eastern Arabian Sea during the inter-monsoon (April-May, 1994) and winter monsoon (February-March, 1995) periods, were analysed to understand physical...

  16. Overview of climatic effects of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.; Malone, R.C.

    1985-01-01

    A general description of the climatic effects of a nuclear war are presented. This paper offers a short history of the subject, a discussion of relevant parameters and physical processes, and a description of plausible nuclear winter scenario. 9 refs

  17. Mobile vehicle road and weather observation quality check methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koller, Daniel Raymond

    Today State Departments of Transportation rely more and more on road weather data to make maintenance decisions. Inaccurate data can result in wrong treatment applications or inadequate staffing levels to maintain the roadway at the desired level of service. Previous methods of road condition data reporting have been limited to static in situ sensor stations. These road weather information systems (RWIS) provide varied data about precipitation, winds, temperature, and more, but their siting does not always provide an accurate representation of weather and road conditions along the roadway. The use of mobile data collection from vehicles travelling the highway corridors may assist in the locations where RWIS sitings are sparse or non-existent. The United States Department of Transporation's "Connected Vehicle" (formally IntelliDrive) research project is designed to create a fully connected transportation system providing road and weather data collection from an extensive array of vehicles. While the implementation of Connected Vehicle is in the future, some of the theories and technologies are already in place today. Several states, as a part of the Pooled Fund Study Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS), have equipped their winter maintenance vehicles with Mobile Data Collection Automated / Vehicle Location (MDC/AVL) systems. In addition, since 1996, automobiles sold in the United States are required to be equipped with an Onboard Diagnostic Version 2 (OBDII) port that streams live data from sensors located in and around the vehicle. While these sensors were designed for vehicle diagnostics, some of the data can be used to determine weather characteristics around the vehicle. The OBDII data can be collected by a smartphone and sent to a server in real time to be processed. These mobile systems may fill the information gap along the roads that stationary environmental sensor stations are not able to collect. Particular concern and care needs to be focused on

  18. Temporal Variability and Characterization of Aerosols across the Pakistan Region during the Winter Fog Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fahim Khokhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Fog is a meteorological/environmental phenomenon which happens across the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP and leads to significant social and economic problems, especially posing significant threats to public health and causing disruptions in air and road traffic. Meteorological stations in Pakistan provide limited information regarding fog episodes as these provide only point observations. Continuous monitoring, as well as a spatially coherent picture of fog distribution, is possible through the use of satellite observations. This study focuses on the 2012–2015 winter fog episodes over the Pakistan region using the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO products. The main objective of the study was to map the spatial distribution of aerosols, their types, and to identify the aerosol origins during special weather conditions like fog in Pakistan. The study also included ground monitoring of particulate matter (PM concentrations, which were conducted during the 2014–2015 winter period only. Overall, this study is part of a multi-country project supported by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD, started in 2014–2015 winter period, whereby scientists from Bangladesh, India and Nepal have also conducted measurements at their respective sites. A significant correlation between MODIS (AOD and AERONET Station (AOD data from Lahore was identified. Mass concentration of PM10 at all sampling sites within Lahore city exceeded the National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS levels on most of the occasions. Smoke and absorbing aerosol were found to be major constituents of winter fog in Pakistan. Furthermore, an extended span of winter fog was also observed in Lahore city during the winter of 2014–2015. The Vertical Feature Mask (VFM provided by CALIPSO satellite confirmed the low-lying aerosol

  19. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    KAUST Repository

    Chevuturi, A.

    2014-12-19

    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  20. A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Categorical Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Laura X.; Isaac, George A.; Sheng, Grant

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0-6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.

  1. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert)

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  2. Coming to grips with nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherr, S.J.

    1985-01-01

    This editorial examines the politics related to the concept of nuclear winter which is a term used to describe temperature changes brought on by the injection of smoke into the atmosphere by the massive fires set off by nuclear explosions. The climate change alone could cause crop failures and lead to massive starvation. The author suggests that the prospect of a nuclear winter should be a deterrent to any nuclear exchange

  3. Desert heat island study in winter by mobile transect and remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chen-Yi; Brazel, Anthony J.; Chow, Winston T. L.; Hedquist, Brent C.; Prashad, Lela

    2009-10-01

    A familiar problem in urban environments is the urban heat island (UHI), which potentially increases air conditioning demands, raise pollution levels, and could modify precipitation patterns. The magnitude and pattern of UHI effects have been major concerns of a lot of urban environment studies. Typically, research on UHI magnitudes in arid regions (such as Phoenix, AZ, USA) focuses on summer. UHI magnitudes in Phoenix (more than three million population) attain values in excess of 5°C. This study investigated the early winter period—a time when summer potential evapotranspiration >250 mm has diminished to 8.0°C, comparable to summertime UHI conditions. Through analysis of the Oke (1998) weather factor ΦW, it was determined thermally induced nighttime cool drainage winds could account for inflating the UHI magnitude in winter.

  4. Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

  5. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  6. Utah DOT weather responsive traveler information system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Over the past decade, the Federal Highway Administrations (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) : has championed the cause of improving traffic operations and safety during weather events. The programs current : emphasis is to encourage...

  7. Weather Watchers--Activities for Young Meteorologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Fran

    1989-01-01

    Describes science activities which were adapted from a teacher's guide entitled "For Spacious Skies" and contains resources for interdisciplinary weather studies. Includes studying properties of air, gravity, cloud movement, humidity, tornadoes, and weather instruments. (RT)

  8. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  9. General Aviation Weather Encounter Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    This study presents a compilation of 24 cases involving general aviation (GA) pilots weather encounters over the : continental U.S. The project team interviewed pilots who had experienced a weather encounter, and we : examined their backgrounds, f...

  10. Enhanced road weather forecasting : Clarus regional demonstrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The quality of road weather forecasts : has major impacts on users of surface : transportation systems and managers : of those systems. Improving the quality : involves the ability to provide accurate, : route-specific road weather information : (e.g...

  11. Road weather forecast quality analysis : project summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to enhance the use of KDOTs Roadway Weather : Information System by improving the weather forecasts themselves and raising the level of : confidence in these forecasts.

  12. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  13. Rainmakers: why bad weather means good productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jooa Julia; Gino, Francesca; Staats, Bradley R

    2014-05-01

    People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we predict and find that bad weather increases individual productivity and that it does so by eliminating potential cognitive distractions resulting from good weather. When the weather is bad, individuals appear to focus more on their work than on alternate outdoor activities. We investigate the proposed relationship between worse weather and higher productivity through 4 studies: (a) field data on employees' productivity from a bank in Japan, (b) 2 studies from an online labor market in the United States, and (c) a laboratory experiment. Our findings suggest that worker productivity is higher on bad-, rather than good-, weather days and that cognitive distractions associated with good weather may explain the relationship. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our research. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  15. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  16. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-25

    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  17. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  18. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  19. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  20. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.