WorldWideScience

Sample records for winter precipitation anomalies

  1. Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fohlmeister, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Dudashvili, Alexey Sergeevich; Tjallingii, Rik; Wolff, Christian; Gafurov, Abror; Cheng, Hai

    2017-12-01

    The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

  2. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  3. Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, L.; Zhu, X.; Fraedrich, K.; Sielmann, F.; Zhi, X.

    2014-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the followin...

  4. VT Mean Winter Precipitation - 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) ClimatePrecip_PRECIPW7100 includes mean winter precipitation data (October through March) for Vermont (1971-2000). It's a raster dataset derived...

  5. Characteristic features of winter precipitation and its variability over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Northwest India; winter precipitation; western disturbances; rabi crops; precipitation variability; precipitation epochs. ... The precipitation is mainly associated with the sequence of synoptic systems known as 'western disturbances'. The precipitation has ... National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, India.

  6. On the relation between ionospheric winter anomalies and solar wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumi, G.C.

    2001-01-01

    There are two different winter anomalies. A small one that appears in connection with ionization at relatively low latitudes in the bottom of the D-region of the ionosphere. There, the electron densities in the winter happen to be less than should be expected. On the other hand, the classic winter anomaly is present when in the winter the upper D-region, again at relatively low latitudes, has more ionization than should be expected. Both these effects are due to the slant compression of the geomagnetic field produced by the solar wind in the wind in the winter season (which is, of course, the summer season when reference is made to events in the other hemisphere). It is shown that the small winter anomaly is a consequence of a hemispheric imbalance in the flux of galactic cosmic rays determined by the obliquely distorted geomagnetic field. It is shown that the standard winter anomaly can be ascribed to the influx of a super solar wind, which penetrates into the Earth's polar atmosphere down to E-region, heights and, duly concentrated through a funneling action at the winter pole of the distorted geomagnetic field, slows down the winter polar vortex. An equatorward motion of the polar air with its content of nitric oxide brings about the excess of ionization in the upper D-region at lower latitudes. The experimentally observed rhythmic recurrence of the upper winter anomaly is correlated to a possible rhythmic recurrence of the super solar wind. The actual detection of the upper winter anomaly could yield some information on the velocity of the basic solar wind. A by-product of the present analysis, the determination of Γ, the coefficient of collisional detachment of the electrons from the O 2 - ions, is presented in the Appendix

  7. The long term variation in the ionospheric winter absorption anomaly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beynon, W.J.G.; Williams, E.R.

    1976-01-01

    An analysis of vertical incidence absorption data for a mid-latitude station (Freiburg 48 0 N 7.5 0 E) for the 13-year period 1957 to 1969 shows that there is a solar cycle variation both in the number of winter anomaly days and in the magnitude of the absorption anomaly. The magnitude of this variation is discussed in relation to solar X-ray flux and to geomagnetic disturbance. The magnitude of winter anomaly absorption is a maximum in the frequency range 2 to 2.5 MHz. Comparison of the winter anomaly phenomenon at a range of mid-latitude stations suggests that there may be small longitude variation in the magnitude of the phenomenon. (author)

  8. Deuterium excess anomaly of precipitation in Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuells, C. J.; Ritter, M.

    2010-12-01

    The isotopic composition of precipitation and melt-water lakes in Svalbard was studied. The IAEA precipitation record of monthly precipitation data from Ny Alesund reveals a much stronger and regular seasonal variability of deuterium excess compared to oxygen-18 and deuterium. The seasonal amplitude of deuterium excess in Ny Alesund is more pronounced than in stations of similar latitude in Greenland and Iceland. Ratios of 18O/16O and 2H/H vary between single events and do not show a clear seasonal pattern. These principle observations have been applied to the investigation of melt-water lakes in Svalbard using the stable isotopes of water. For each melt-water lake samples have been taken of the uppermost layer of the surrounding snow pack, of melt-water inflow(s), the lake water itself and the existing outflow. Samples have been analyzed for 18O/16O and 2H/H with laser ring-down spectrometry. Based on observed topological and geomorphometric data the mean residence time was estimated indicating turnover within days to few weeks. Kinetic isotope fractionation by evaporation was observed only in the inflow of the lowest lake. The isotopic data from melt-water lakes reflects the deuterium excess anomaly observed in the precipitation data from Svalbard. The hydrological input to the melt-water lakes from snow-melt and groundwater could be identified. While the hydrological regime of most lakes is dominated by melt-water, significant groundwater inflow could be detected in specific lakes. In this environment the investigation of hydrological processes and properties of hydrological systems can be improved by using the information content of deuterium excess seasonality. Deuterium excess results from ocean-atmosphere interactions and reflects moisture conditions and temperature gradients during evaporation in the source region of atmospheric moisture. In high-latitude environments deuterium excess seasonality and variability contains information about changes in

  9. Impacts of Pacific SSTs on California Winter Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

    2017-12-01

    Consecutive below-normal precipitation years and resulted multi-year droughts are critical issues as the recent 2012-2015 drought of California caused tremendous socio-economic damages. However, studies on the causes of the multi-year droughts lack. In this study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts (1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2015) in California during the last two decades, we investigated the atmospheric and oceanic characteristics of the three drought events for winter (December-February, DJF) in order to understand large-scale circulations that are responsible for initiation, maintenance, and termination of the droughts. It was found that abnormally developed upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific are primarily responsible for precipitation deficits and then droughts. These ridges developed when negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) including La Niña events are pervasive in the tropical Pacific. After 3 or 4 years, the droughts ended under the opposite conditions; upper-tropospheric troughs in the North Pacific with El Niño events in the tropics. Results of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for the 41-year (1974/75-2014/15) 500 hPa geopotential height in DJF revealed that, during the drought periods, the positive phases of the first and second EOF mode (EOF1+ and EOF2+, respectively) were active one by one, positioning upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific. While EOF1+ is associated with cold tropical central Pacific and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), EOF2+ is associated with the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern (i.e., warm western tropical Pacific and cool eastern tropical Pacific near the southern Peru). Based on these results, we developed a regression model for winter precipitation. While dominant SST factors differ by decades, for the recent two decades (1994/1995-2014/2015), 56% variability of DJF precipitation is explained by the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern and PDO (NINO3

  10. Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices

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    C. Rodríguez-Puebla

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

  11. Impacts of SST anomalies on the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation: a case study for the northern winter 1995/1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Losada, T.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departmento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Mechoso, C.R.; Ma, H.Y. [University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2007-12-15

    The present paper selects the northern winter of December 1995-February 1996 for a case study on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. In the Atlantic, the selected winter was characterized by positive SST anomalies over the northern subtropics and east of Newfoundland, and negative anomalies along the US coast. A weak La Nina event developed in the Pacific. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was low, precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was anomalously high, and precipitation over northern Europe was anomalously low. The method of study consists of assessing the sensitivity of ensemble simulations by the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (UCLA AGCM) to SST anomalies from the observation, which are prescribed either in the World Oceans, the Atlantic Ocean only, or the subtropical North Atlantic only. The results obtained are compared with a control run that uses global, time-varying climatological SST. The ensemble simulations with global and Atlantic-only SST anomalies both produce results that resemble the observations over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the atmosphere in the selected winter over those regions, therefore, was primarily determined by conditions within the Atlantic basin. The simulated fields in the tropical North Atlantic show anomalous upward motion and lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) in the atmosphere overlying the positive SST anomalies. Consistently, the subtropical jet intensifies and its core moves equatorward, and precipitation increases over northern Africa and southern Europe. The results also suggest that the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic only do not suffice to produce the atmospheric anomalies observed in the basin during the selected winter. The extratropical SST anomalies would provide a key contribution through increased

  12. Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Garaboa-Paz

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST, the sea level pressure (SLP or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

  13. What drove the Pacific and North America climate anomalies in winter 2014/15?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Peitao; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen

    2017-12-01

    In late 2014 and early 2015, the canonical atmospheric response to the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was not observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, although Niño3.4 index exceeded the threshold for a weak El Niño. In an effort to understand why it was so, this study deconvoluted the observed 2014/15 December-January-February (DJF) mean sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation and 200 hPa stream function anomalies into the leading patterns related to the principal components of DJF SST variability. It is noted that the anomalies of these variables were primarily determined by the patterns related to two SST modes: one is the North Pacific mode (NPM), and the other the ENSO mode. The NPM was responsible for the apparent lack of coupled air-sea relationship in the central equatorial Pacific and the east-west structure of the circulation anomalies over North America, while the ENSO mode linked to SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as well as the circulation in the central equatorial Pacific. Further, the ENSO signal in DJF 2014/15 likely evolved from the NPM pattern in winter 2013/14. Its full development, however, was impeded by the easterly anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific that was associated with negative SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Pacific. In addition, the analyses also indicates that the SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region alone were not adequate for capturing the coupling of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific, due to the fact that this index cannot distinguish whether the SST anomaly in the Niño3.4 region is associated with the ENSO mode or NPM, or both.

  14. What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events?

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    Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue

    2017-10-01

    Motivated by the fact that the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation anomalies during 2015/16 winter (a year of strong El Niño) over the west coast of the US and that of the El Niño composite precipitation pattern had considerable differences, the variability in the winter precipitation during strong El Niño events is assessed. The analysis is based on a set of hindcasts (1982-2011) and real-time forecasts (2012-2015) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the following aspects for seasonal mean precipitation variability were examined: (1) the mean signal during strong El Niño based on the composite analysis, and further, the variability from the composite on an event-to-event basis; (2) probability of occurrence for precipitation anomalies to be opposite to the signal (inferred as the composite mean); (3) the probability to have precipitation anomaly in different categories varying from wet to dry; and (4) variations in the characteristics of precipitation from OND, NDJ, to DJF (early to late boreal winter). The results show that the model forecasted seasonal mean precipitation composite for strong El Niño was similar to the linear regression signal with the Niño 3.4 index in observations, with negative anomalies over the Pacific Northwest and positive anomalies over California. However, although in response to an El Niño event, the California precipitation PDF was shifted towards positive values relative to the climatological PDF, the overlap between climatological PDF and the PDF for El Niño events was considerable. This is because of the large variability in seasonal mean outcomes of precipitation from one forecast to another, and therefore, chances to have precipitation anomalies with their sign opposite to the composite El Niño signal remain appreciable. In this paradigm, although the seasonal mean precipitation during 2015/16 winter over the west coast of the US differed from the mean signal for a strong El Niño event, the

  15. Effects of El Nino Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Do-Woo [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Ki-Seon [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Typhoon Center, Jeju (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hi-Ryong [Pukyong National University, Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Nam-gu, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-04-15

    This study compares the impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on precipitation over Korea during the boreal winters from 1954 to 2009. Precipitation in Korea tends to be equal to or greater than the normal level during an El Nino Modoki winter, whereas there is no significant change during an El Nino winter. Greater than normal precipitation during El Nino Modoki was also found over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China and much of southern Japan. The latitudes of these regions are 5-10 further north than in southern China, where precipitation increases during El Nino. The following two anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be causes that led to different precipitation distributions over East Asia. First, an atmospheric wave train in the lower troposphere, which propagated from the central tropical Pacific (cyclonic) through the southern Philippine Sea (anticyclonic) to East Asia (cyclonic), reached the southern China and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino, whereas it reached Korea and southern Japan during El Nino Modoki. Second, an anomalous local meridional circulation, which consists of air sinking in the tropics, flowing poleward in the lower troposphere, and rising in the subtropics, developed between the southern Philippine Sea and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino. During El Nino Modoki, however, this circulation expanded further to the north and was formed between the southern Philippine Sea and regions of Korea and southern Japan. (orig.)

  16. The interdecadal change of the leading mode of the winter precipitation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jingwen; Jia, Xiaojing; Lin, Hai

    2016-10-01

    The interdecadal change of the leading mode of the mean winter precipitation over China has been investigated using observational data for the period from 1960 to 2012. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode (EOF1) of the winter precipitation over China displays a mono-sign pattern over southeastern China, accounting for 49.7 % of the total variance in the precipitation. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can impact EOF1. A positive (negative) EOF1 is accompanied by warm (cold) ENSO events and weak (strong) EAWM, and the latters can cause anomalous southerlies (northerlies) along the coast of southeastern China, accompanied by the transportation of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea favoring a wet (dry) winter over southeastern China. An abrupt transition of the EOF1 is observed around the mid-1980s. Therefore, the data are divided into two subperiods, i.e., 1960-1987 (P1) and 1988-2009 (P2). Significant differences in the large scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EOF1 during these two subperiods are observed. EOF1 is closely related to the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation in P1, while its relationship to the tropics obviously increases during P2. The partial regression analysis results show that the interdecadal change of EOF1 is caused by both the interdecadal changes of the EAWM and ENSO around the mid-1980s. In P1, the lower-level anomalous southerlies along the coastal southeastern China accompanied by water vapor transportation that causes above-average precipitation are related to an anti-cyclonic system centered over the mid-latitude western North Pacific associated with EAWM. In P2, the influence of the EAWM is weaker, and the southerly anomaly over the coastal southeastern China is mainly caused by the anticyclone over Philippines, which is related to the ENSO.

  17. Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikai Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation has been considered to be a critical water source for both human livelihoods and ecosystems in Central Asia. Using observational data and gridded datasets, we studied the regional and seasonal differences of precipitation climate characteristics and variations in precipitation over Central Asia. Using observational data obtained from the China Meteorological Administration, Global Historical Climatology Network (V3.02, we divided Central Asia into four subregions (North, Center, Southwest, and Southeast based on the differences in seasonal cycles of precipitation. ‘Single peaks’ were detected as types of seasonal cycles over the North and the Southeast, while ‘two peaks’ was the type that occurred in the Southwest. For the Center, the zone of transition between the North and the Southwest, each monthly precipitation value was higher than the Southwest’s and less than the North’s. GPCC (R2 of 0.89, RMSE of 64.5 mm/year was proven to be the most suitable dataset of the four datasets (CRU, GPCC, MERRA, and TRMM to describe precipitation in Central Asia, based on validation against observational data, and used to detect the spatial and temporal trend of precipitation in Central Asia and four subregions during 1960–2013. No significant trends were observed for annual precipitation in Central Asia, while precipitation in winter displayed a significant increase (0.11 mm/year. Additionally, significantly increasing trends (0.16, 0.27, 0.13, and 0.13 mm/year were detected in spring, summer, autumn, and winter over the Southeast during 1960–2013.

  18. Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zeng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available For forecasting the maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation over the winter season at lead times of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months over Canada from 1950 to 2007, two nonlinear and two linear regression models were used, where the models were support vector regression (SVR (nonlinear and linear versions, nonlinear Bayesian neural network (BNN and multiple linear regression (MLR. The 118 stations were grouped into six geographic regions by K-means clustering. For each region, the leading principal components of the winter maximum 5-d accumulated precipitation anomalies were the predictands. Potential predictors included quasi-global sea surface temperature anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, as well as six climate indices (the Niño-3.4 region sea surface temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American teleconnection, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Scandinavia pattern, and the East Atlantic pattern. The results showed that in general the two robust SVR models tended to have better forecast skills than the two non-robust models (MLR and BNN, and the nonlinear SVR model tended to forecast slightly better than the linear SVR model. Among the six regions, the Prairies region displayed the highest forecast skills, and the Arctic region the second highest. The strongest nonlinearity was manifested over the Prairies and the weakest nonlinearity over the Arctic.

  19. Flipping the Western United States El Niño Precipitation Pattern during the 2015/16 Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Vecchi, G.; Jia, L.; Kapnick, S. B.; Delworth, T. L.; Gudgel, R.; Underwood, S.

    2016-12-01

    El Niño is a key source of seasonal precipitation prediction. A "typical" El Niño leads to wet (dry) wintertime anomalies over the southern (northern) half of the Western United States (WUS). However, during the 2015/16 strong El Niño, the WUS winter precipitation pattern was roughly opposite to this canonical (average of the record) anomaly pattern, and most seasonal prediction systems failed to foresee this peculiar anomaly associated with anomalous atmospheric blocking circulation over the California coastal region. Here we explore the extent to which this past winter's WUS precipitation anomalies may have been predictable. A suite of high-resolution seasonal prediction experiments shows that although the predictability of the 2015/16 WUS precipitation was substantially lower than in 1997/98, the unusual 2015/16 wintertime flipped El Niño pattern was predictable when the entire climate system (ocean, atmosphere and land) is initialized by observations. When the ocean alone is initialized, the coupled model fails to predict the 2015/16 pattern, but can reproduce the 1997/98 pattern. Further sensitivity experiments suggest that the atmospheric/land initial conditions play complementary non-linear roles in predicting the 2015/16 WUS winter precipitation pattern. This study highlights the importance of atmospheric/land initial conditions and the substantial impact of intrinsic noise in controlling the WUS regional precipitation anomalies even under the broad influence of global-scale El Niño teleconnection, previously thought to be the principal source of the WUS seasonal precipitation prediction.

  20. Zonal Wind Indices to Reconstruct CONUS Winter Precipitation

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    Farnham, David J.; Steinschneider, Scott; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal precipitation forecasts over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the 2015-2016 El Niño exhibited significant bias over many regions, especially in the western United States where seasonal information is particularly valuable for reservoir operation. Diagnosing the origin of this bias requires understanding the empirical signal from tropical heating to midlatitude precipitation. In this paper, we find that atmospheric zonal wind indices computed over the region typically associated with the winter jet stream provide a skillful, spatially distributed, linear prediction of precipitation over CONUS, over all winters (January-March; JFM). Furthermore, we show that more (less) central (eastern) Pacific Ocean heating may have contributed to the unexpected 2016 JFM CONUS precipitation and that this was likely predictable based on antecedent (December) sea surface temperatures. The zonal wind indices act as intermediate variables in a causal chain, and our analyses provide support for the potential for empirical prediction and also a diagnostic for physics-based models to help improve forecasts.

  1. Precipitation type transition regions in winter storms over southern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Ronald E.; King, Patrick

    1990-12-01

    Two winter storms passed through the Toronto area during November and December 1987. Information from radar, rawinsonde, and surface observations was analyzed in order to determine the kinematic flow fields and thermodynamic environment in the vicinity of the transition at the surface between snow and rain. This region was also linked to heavy precipitation and thunder. Updrafts preferentially occurred over the snow region, and deep near-0°C layers occurred in the transition region. Observations are consistent with a mesoscale circulation initiated by melting snow and possibly with the occurrence of symmetric instability. It is further suggested that large, possibly wet, snowflakes being formed within such deep near-0°C layers would contribute to the radar detection of precipitation bands near the precipitation transition region.

  2. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

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    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-12-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

  3. Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Bo; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Ren, Hong-Li; Liu, Ying; Eade, Rosie

    2017-07-01

    Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we demonstrate prediction skill of southern China winter precipitation by three operational seasonal prediction models: the operational Global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1m). The correlation scores reach 0.76 and 0.67 in GloSea5 and CFSv2, respectively; and the amplitude of the ensemble mean forecast signal is comparable to the observed variations. The skilful predictions in GloSea5 and CFSv2 mainly benefit from the successful representation of the observed ENSO teleconnection. El Niño weakens the Walker circulation and leads to the strengthening of the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific. The anti-cyclone then induces anomalous northward flow over the South China Sea and brings water vapor to southern China, resulting in more precipitation. This teleconnection pattern is too weak in BCC-CSM1.1m, which explains its low skill (0.13). Whereas the most skilful forecast system is also able to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean on southern China precipitation via changes in southwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, we examine the real-time forecast for 2015/16 winter when a strong El Niño event led to the highest rainfall over southern China in recent decades. We find that the GloSea5 system gave good advice as it produced the third wettest southern China in the hindcast, but underestimated the observed amplitude. This is likely due to the underestimation of the Siberian High strength in 2015/2016 winter, which has driven strong convergence over southern China. We conclude that some current seasonal forecast systems can give useful warning of impending extremes. However, there is still need for further model improvement to fully represent the complex

  4. Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

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    Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2015-01-01

    The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

  5. Experimental electron density profiles of the mid-latitude lower ionosphere and winter anomaly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapoport, Z.Ts.; Sinel'nikov, V.M.

    1996-01-01

    Summarized measurements of high-latitude electron density profiles of N e lower ionosphere, obtained at M100B meteorological rockets by precision method of coherent frequencies during 1979-1990 at the Volgograd test site (φ = 48 deg 41' N; λ = 44 deg 21 E), are presented. The profiles obtained represent average values of electron density at various altitudes of lower ionosphere (h = 70-100 km) during night and day time hours in winter and non winter periods. Increased electron density values during daytime hours in winter are related to winter anomaly phenomenon. 36 refs.; 1 fig

  6. The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2013-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses, and are usually associated to deep low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months are fed by the Mediterranean. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and with relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2003, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands (Herrera et al., 2012), and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal (Belo-Pereira et al., 2011), with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. The daily precipitation data from 1950 to 2003 are compared with a 30-year (1961-90) precipitation climatology to achieve a daily normalized departure from the climatology. The magnitude of an event is given daily by an index that is obtained after multiplying 1) the area (in percentage) that has precipitation anomalies above two standard deviations by 2) the mean values of these anomalies over this area. With this criterion we are able to evaluate not only the spatial extent of the precipitation events but also their spatially integrated intensity. In addition, to stress out the hydrological responses to precipitation, rankings taking into account the sum of the normalized anomalies over different time periods (3 days, 5 days and 10 days) were also computed. Here different precipitation rankings will be presented considering the entire Iberian

  7. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

    2010-05-01

    We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

  8. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Toreti

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

  9. Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

    2018-05-01

    Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

  10. Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

    2018-03-01

    Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

  11. The Northern Annular Mode and winter precipitation on the Colorado Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, S.; Russell, J. L.; Overpeck, J.

    2006-12-01

    The southwestern United States receives more than half of its annual precipitation from winter storms. Winter precipitation is an important source of reservoir recharge (Sheppard et al. 2002) and plays a significant role in determining wildfire conditions in the following summer (Westerling et al. 2006). Generalized drought prediction in the Southwest is complicated by the bimodal distribution of precipitation. By focusing on winter precipitation, we can quantify the relationship between jet position and a significant portion of the annual precipitation. We will present the results from time series analyses comparing the winter Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index to instrumental and tree ring records of winter precipitation in northern Arizona over the twentieth century. Over the past two decades, the NAM has shifted into a predominantly high index pattern. One result has been a northward migration of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, and changes in the number of storms reaching the southwest are possible (Thompson and Wallace 1999). Tree ring records have been used to reconstruct winter precipitation records in a number of studies throughout the Southwest (e.g., Salzer and Kipfmueller 2005, Woodhouse 1997). Better constraint of the role of jet position in winter precipitation amount in the Southwest will allow better prediction of reservoir and soil moisture recharge and therefore, better planning of water and fire fighting resources.

  12. Relationship Between South Atlantic Subtropical High and South Atlantic SST Anomalies during Extreme Precipitation Events on Southeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampuch, L.; Ambrizzi, T.

    2012-12-01

    The Southeast region of Brazil comprises the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo. It occupies 10.85% of Brazilian territory and is highly urbanized. The Southeast Brazil is the biggest geoeconomic region of the country having a strong and diverse economy. Agriculture dominates in all states of the region. The main agricultural products are sugar cane, coffee, cotton, maize, cassava, rice, beans and fruits. Livestock farming is also practiced in the region. The largest herd of cattle is found in the state of Minas Gerais. These activities are highly dependent on the amount and distribution of rainfall. Studies of extreme precipitation events over Brazil have been well emphasized in the literature over the years and their relationship with anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in both the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean have been analyzed. This paper investigates the extreme events occurring in southeastern Brazil from 1982 to 2004 using the technique of quantiles. The composite technique was applied to precipitation, sea level pressure anomaly (SLP) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SST) data in order to investigate the characteristics of rainfall patterns, the position and intensity of South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and SST anomalies in the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) in the occurrence of these events and to make a distinction between dry and wet extremes. Analyzing the precipitation patterns, it was noticed that the composition of dry events throughout the Southeast Brazil has negative precipitation anomalies. Particularly, in the southern part of the region there is a large precipitation deficit, having an average of 50mm in the winter months. The composition for the wet events shows that, on average, positive precipitation anomalies with the southern region containing the highest cumulative average, reaching a positive anomaly of 100mm. The composition of SLP in the case of dry events indicates a positive anomaly

  13. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies have found that snow Eurasian anomalies in autumn can affect East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), but the mechanisms remain controversial and not well understood. The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect EAWM are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. The leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the October-November mean Eurasian snow cover is characterized by a uniform anomaly over a broad region of central Eurasia (40°N-65°N, 60°E-140°E). However, the results from a 150-ensemble mean simulation with snow depth anomaly specified in October and November reveal that the Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM. The excessive snow forcing can significantly enhance EAWM and the snowfall over the northwestern China and along the EAWM front zone stretching from the southeast China to Japan. The physical process involves a snow-monsoon feedback mechanism. The excessive autumn snow anomalies over the MPV region can persist into the following winter, and significantly enhance winter snow anomalies, which increase surface albedo, reduce incoming solar radiation and cool the boundary layer air, leading to an enhanced Mongolian High and a deepened East Asian trough. The latter, in turn, strengthen surface northwesterly winds, cooling East Asia and increasing snow accumulation over the MPV region and the southeastern China. The increased snow covers feedback to EAWM system through changing albedo, extending its influence southeastward. It is also found that the atmosphere-ocean coupling process can amplify the delayed influence of Eurasian snow mass anomaly on EAWM. The autumn surface albedo anomalies, however, do not have a lasting "memory" effect. Only if the albedo anomalies are artificially extended into December and January, will the EAWM be

  14. On the seasonal prediction of the western United States El Niño precipitation pattern during the 2015/16 winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaosong; Jia, Liwei; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Gudgel, Rich; Underwood, Seth; Zeng, Fanrong

    2018-01-01

    A "typical" El Niño leads to wet (dry) wintertime anomalies over the southern (northern) half of the Western United States (WUS). However, during the strong El Niño of 2015/16, the WUS winter precipitation pattern was roughly opposite to this canonical (average of the record) anomaly pattern. To understand why this happened, and whether it was predictable, we use a suite of high-resolution seasonal prediction experiments with coupled climate models. We find that the unusual 2015/16 precipitation pattern was predictable at zero-lead time horizon when the ocean/atmosphere/land components were initialized with observations. However, when the ocean alone is initialized the coupled model fails to predict the 2015/16 pattern, although ocean initial conditions alone can reproduce the observed WUS precipitation during the 1997/98 strong El Niño. Further observational analysis shows that the amplitudes of the El Niño induced tropical circulation anomalies during 2015/16 were weakened by about 50% relative to those of 1997/98. This was caused by relative cold (warm) anomalies in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific suppressing (enhancing) deep convection anomalies in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific during 2015/16. The reduced El Niño teleconnection led to a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet over the southeast North Pacific and southern WUS, resulting in the unusual 2015/16 winter precipitation pattern over the WUS. This study highlights the importance of initial conditions not only in the ocean, but in the land and atmosphere as well, for predicting the unusual El Niño teleconnection and its influence on the winter WUS precipitation anomalies during 2015/16.

  15. Prediction of winter precipitation over northwest India using ocean heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

    2016-10-01

    The winter precipitation (December-February) over northwest India (NWI) is highly variable in terms of time and space. The maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region and decreases towards south of NWI. The winter precipitation is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and for the economy of the country. It is an exigent task to the scientific community to provide a seasonal outlook for the regional scale precipitation. The oceanic heat fluxes are known to have a strong linkage with the ocean and atmosphere. Henceforth, in this study, we obtained the relationship of NWI winter precipitation with total downward ocean heat fluxes at the global ocean surface, 15 regions with significant correlations are identified from August to November at 90 % confidence level. These strong relations encourage developing an empirical model for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. The multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression (PCR) models are developed and evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. The developed regression models are able to predict the winter precipitation patterns over NWI with significant (99 % confidence level) index of agreement and correlations. Moreover, these models capture the signals of extremes, but could not reach the peaks (excess and deficit) of the observations. PCR performs better than MLR for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. Therefore, the total downward ocean heat fluxes at surface from August to November are having a significant impact on seasonal winter precipitation over the NWI. It concludes that these interrelationships are more useful for the development of empirical models and feasible to predict the winter precipitation over NWI with sufficient lead-time (in advance) for various risk management sectors.

  16. The relationship between precipitation anomalies and satellite-derived vegetation activity in Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gessner, Ursula; Naeimi, Vahid; Klein, Igor; Kuenzer, Claudia; Klein, Doris; Dech, Stefan

    2013-11-01

    In Central Asia, water is a particularly scarce and valuable good. In many ecosystems of this region, the vegetation development during the growing season is dependent on water provided by rainfall. With climate change, alterations of the seasonal distribution of precipitation patterns and a higher frequency of extreme events are expected. Vegetation dynamics are likely to respond to these changes and thus ecosystem services will be affected. However, there is still a lack in understanding the response of vegetation to precipitation anomalies, especially for dryland regions such as Central Asia. This study aims to contribute to an improved understanding of vegetation sensitivity to precipitation anomalies and corresponding temporal reaction patterns at regional scale. The presented analyses are based on time-series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded precipitation datasets (GPCC Full Data Reanalysis) for the years 1982-2006. Time-series correlation analyses show that vegetation development is sensitive to precipitation anomalies for nearly 80% of the Central Asian land surface. Results indicate a particularly strong sensitivity of vegetation in areas with 100-400 mm of annual rainfall. Temporal rainfall-NDVI response patterns show a temporal lag between precipitation anomalies and vegetation activity of 1-3 months. The reaction of vegetation was found to be strongest for precipitation anomalies integrated over periods of 2-4 months. The observed delayed response of vegetation to precipitation anomalies reveals potential for drought prediction in Central Asia. The spatial patterns of vegetation reactions are discussed with focus on the role of precipitation amount and seasonality, land use and land cover.

  17. Recent interdecadal shift in the relationship between Northeast China's winter precipitation and the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tingting, Han; Shengping, He; Xin, Hao; Huijun, Wang

    2018-02-01

    This study documents an interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between Northeast China's winter precipitation (NECWP) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans in the 1990s. It is revealed that the NECWP shows a significant simultaneous correlation with the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic (SST_Atlantic)/tropical Indian Ocean (SST_Indian) during 1996-2013/1961-1990. Generally, the NECWP anomaly is concurrent with apparent Eurasian wave pattern during 1961-1990 whereas anomalous Okhotsk high and East Asia trough during 1996-2013. It is found that, before the 1990s, the warming SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean could stimulate the Eurasian wave pattern via inducing significant anomalous upper-level convergence over the northern Europe, which tends to favor a positive NECWP anomaly. During 1996-2013, the SST_Indian-NECWP connection is disrupted. Instead, the North Atlantic tri-polar SST anomaly pattern exerts a dominant impact on the NECWP through triggering a stationary Rossby wave that originates from the North Atlantic and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia and further modulates the Okhotsk high and East Asia trough. Further analyses indicate that the weakened connection between the tropical SST_Indian anomalies and the northern Ferrell circulation likely contributes to the weakening of the NECWP-SST_Indian relationship after the 1990s. However, the eastward shift and the enlarged anomalous magnitudes of the North Atlantic Oscillation might favor the strengthening of the NECWP-SST_Atlantic relationship after the mid-1990s. It is therefore suggested that the strengthened variability of the SST_Atlantic anomalies after the 1990s might partially contribute to the intensification of the interannual variability of the NECWP.

  18. Identifying role of subtropical southeast Pacific SST anomalies on precipitation dynamics in Central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Garreaud, R.

    2014-12-01

    Central Chile (CC, western South America coasts, 28°S- 38°S) is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The region is characterized by semiarid Mediterranean climate with a marked precipitation gradient along the coast from north to south, mostly due to the positioning of the South Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone and the midlatitude westerlies belt. Although there are several diagnostic studies that focus on the impact of tropical Pacific SST on CC precipitation variability via atmospheric teleconnections, less attention has been placed on impacts of subtropical southeast (SE) Pacific SST on precipitation. The later region is immediately adjacent to CC and it interferes with the overpassing atmospheric systems. In particular we want to assess the impact of a consistent cooling over the SE Pacific during the last 30 years. This study is being tackled by a combination of observational and reanalysis datasets together with numerical simulations. Observational dataset includes gridded dataset of CRU, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, Reynolds SST data V2 based on AVHRR infrared satellite SST data is used for analyzing spatial and temporal changes in SST. Current modelling experiment includes a control simulation, used as reference, and sensitivity simulation that involves perturbations to SST over subtropical SE Pacific for a normal year austral winter (2001) season. A number of simulations with different initial conditions have been carried out by employing ICTP-RegCM4. The domain for simulations was centered at 82oW and 32oW with 288x288 grid cells on 20 km spatial resolution. Preliminary results indicate that the response of precipitation in CC to SST anomalies in the subtropical SE Pacific exhibits more or less linear behavior. In the colder SST experiments, drier conditions dominate over CC, which is possibly related with the intensification of South Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone (SPSA) or a reduction in the available

  19. Effects of persistence and large-scale climate anomalies on trends and change points in extreme precipitation of Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Shao, Dongguo

    2017-07-01

    Slowly varying (trend) and abrupt (change points) changes in annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) and seasonal maximum daily precipitation (SMP) across Canada for 223 stations in six regions during four periods (1900-2010, 1930-2010, 1950-2010 and 1970-2010) were analyzed. Variants of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test considering influences of short-term persistence (STP), long-term persistence (LTP) and large-scale climate anomalies on trend detection were applied to detect trends, and the Pettitt test was used to evaluate change points. The results indicate that there was a mix of increasing and decreasing trends for Canadian AMPs and SMPs. Most regions in Pacific Maritime, central Boreal regions and the Atlantic Maritime showed an increase in AMP, while a decrease in Canadian Prairies and most Boreal regions. More stations showing statistically significant increases than decreases in spring, summer and autumn SMPs were found while there was a statistically significant decrease (increase) in winter SMP over southern (northern) Canada. LTP significantly increased the likelihood of trends detected in AMPs and SMPs. The effects of STP on the trend detection were also evident as shown by the differences in results obtained from the MK tests with and without considering the effect of STP. The effects of large-scale climate anomalies on trends were significant for winter SMPs. More than 1/4 of stations were detected with statistically significant change points in AMPs and SMPs which occurred around 1960-1990. More stations showed significant change points than trends, and winter showed more evident trends and change points in SMPs than other three seasons. Trends and change points detected were field-significant.

  20. Observational and Synoptic Analyses of the Winter Precipitation Regime Change over Utah

    OpenAIRE

    Gillies, Robert R.; Wang, Shih-Yu; Booth, Marty R.

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have indicated a widespread decline in snowpack over Utah accompanied by a decline in the snow–precipitation ratio while anecdotal evidence claims have been put forward that measured changes in Utah’s snowpack are spurious and do not reflect actual change. Using two distinct lines of investigation, this paper further analyzes the winter precipitation regime in the state of Utah. First, by means of observation-based, gridded daily temperature, precipitation, and remotely sense...

  1. Investigation of Microphysical Parameters within Winter and Summer Type Precipitation Events over Mountainous [Complex] Terrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stalker, James R.; Bossert, James E.

    1997-10-01

    In this study we investigate complex terrain effects on precipitation with RAMS for both in winter and summer cases from a microphysical perspective. We consider a two dimensional east-west topographic cross section in New Mexico representative of the Jemez mountains on the west and the Sangre de Cristo mountains on the east. Located between these two ranges is the Rio Grande Valley. In these two dimensional experiments, variations in DSDs are considered to simulate total precipitation that closely duplicate observed precipitation

  2. A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Guilong

    2001-01-01

    This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

  3. The impacts of temperature anomalies and political orientation on perceived winter warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCright, Aaron M.; Dunlap, Riley E.; Xiao, Chenyang

    2014-12-01

    Although perceptions of common weather phenomena moderately align with instrumental measurements of such phenomena, the evidence that weather or climatic conditions influence beliefs about anthropogenic climate change is mixed. This study addresses both foci, which are important to scholars who investigate human-environment interactions and observers who expect greater exposure to weather or climate extremes to translate into stronger support for climate change adaptive measures and mitigative policies. We analyse the extent to which state-level winter temperature anomalies influence the likelihood of perceiving local winter temperatures to be warmer than usual and attributing these warmer temperatures mainly to global warming. We show that actual temperature anomalies influence perceived warming but not attribution of such warmer-than-usual winter temperatures to global warming. Rather, the latter is influenced more by perceived scientific agreement; beliefs about the current onset, human cause, threat and seriousness of global warming; and political orientation. This is not surprising given the politicization of climate science and political polarization on climate change beliefs in recent years. These results suggest that personal experience with weather or climate variability may help cultivate support for adaptive measures, but it may not increase support for mitigation policies.

  4. Characteristic features of winter precipitation and its variability over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    their birth in the Himalayas. Water supply to these .... confidence level. Figure 2. Spatial pattern of percentage of normal annual precipitation contribution for different meteorological subdivisions of India for the season DJFM. The northwest India .... Rajasthan and East Rajasthan, in that order. All the nine subdivisions are ...

  5. On the differences between early and middle winter atmospheric responses to sea surface temperature anomalies in the northwest Atlantic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.; Derome, J.; Ritchie, H.; Dugas, B.

    1994-01-01

    Using an atmospheric global spectral model at RPN with T42 horizontal resolution, we have shown that the winter atmosphere in the mid-latitude is capable of reacting to the SST anomalies prescribed in the northwest Atlantic with two different responses. The nature of the response is determined by the climatological conditions of the winter system. Experiments are conducted using either the perpetual November or January conditions, with or without the SST anomalies prescribed. Six 50-day integrations, with positive (or negative) SST anomalies prescribed, initialized from independent November analyses and similarly, four runs initialized from January analyses, have been examined in comparison with their control runs

  6. Seasonal Noise Versus Subseasonal Signal: Forecasts of California Precipitation During the Unusual Winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuguang; Anichowski, Alek; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2017-09-01

    Subseasonal forecasts of California precipitation during the unusual winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are examined in this study. It is shown that two different ensemble forecast systems were able to predict monthly precipitation anomalies in California during these periods with some skill in forecasts initialized near or at the start of the month. The unexpected anomalies in February 2016, as well as in January and February 2017, were associated with shifts in the position of the jet stream over the northeast Pacific in a manner broadly consistent with associations found in larger ensembles of forecasts. These results support the broader notion that what is unpredictable atmospheric noise at the seasonal time scale can become predictable signal at the subseasonal time scale, despite that the lead times and verification averaging times associated with these forecasts are outside the predictability horizons of canonical midrange weather forecasting.

  7. On the effects of vertical air velocity on winter precipitation types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Thériault

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The various precipitation types formed within winter storms (such as snow, wet snow and freezing rain often lead to very hazardous weather conditions. These types of precipitation often occur during the passage of a warm front as a warm air mass ascends over a cold air mass. To address this issue further, we used a one-dimensional kinematic cloud model to simulate this gentle ascent (≤10 cm/s of warm air. The initial temperature profile has an above 0°C inversion, a lower subfreezing layer, and precipitation falls from above the temperature inversion. The cloud model is coupled to a double-moment microphysics scheme that simulates the production of various types of winter precipitation. The results are compared with those from a previous study carried out in still air. Based on the temporal evolution of surface precipitation, snow reaches the surface significantly faster than in still air whereas other precipitation types including freezing rain and ice pellets have a shorter duration. Overall, even weak background vertical ascent has an important impact on the precipitation reaching the surface, the time of the elimination of the melting layer, and also the evolution of the lower subfreezing layer.

  8. Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

    2018-01-01

    Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

  9. Combinations of large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 138, March 2014 (2014), s. 205-212 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extreme * synoptic-scale cause * re-analysis * circulation anomaly Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Science s, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.844, year: 2014 http://www. science direct.com/ science /article/pii/S0169809513003372

  10. Low frequency and quasi-biennial oscillations in the Malaysian precipitation anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangang, Fredolin T.

    2001-08-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of the precipitation anomaly in Malaysia in the quasi-biennial (1.5-2.5 years) and the low-frequency (3-7 years) bands were investigated. The oscillations in both bands contributed a significant proportion of the variance in the precipitation anomaly. The most dominant modes for both bands had large impacts on the stations in Sabah, Sarawak and on the east coast of the Malaysian peninsula. These dominant modes had a similar manifestation, i.e. the stations experienced enhanced rainfall during periods of large negative anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean and suppressed rainfall during periods of large positive SST anomaly. Hence, these areas may face severe drought during an El Niño event and flood during La Niña. Both bands appeared to have large-scale coherence with SST, sea level pressure and zonal wind over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and South China Sea. However, the two signals differed with respect to timing and propagation.

  11. Precipitation in Madeira island and atmospheric rivers in the winter seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, Flavio T.; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria; Prior, Victor

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to analyse the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the Madeira's highlands over a 10-year period, as well as the main characteristics associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting the island during 10 winter seasons, and their impact in the rainfall amounts recorded near the mountain crest in the south-eastern part of the island. The period between September 2002 and November 2012 is considered for the analysis. The ARs have been identified from the total precipitable water vapour field extracted from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The AIRS observations were downloaded for a domain covering large part of the North Atlantic Ocean. The precipitable water vapour field from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis was also used aiming to support the AIRS data when there was no satellite information over the island. The daily accumulated precipitation at surface showed generally drier summers, while the highest accumulated precipitation are recorded mainly during the winter, although some significant events may occur also in autumn and spring seasons. The patterns of the precipitable water vapour field when ARs reach the island were investigated, and even if great part of the atmospheric rivers reaches the island in a dissipation stage, some rivers are heavy enough to reach the Madeira Island. In this situation, the water vapour transport could be observed in two main configurations and transporting significant water vapour amounts toward the Madeira from the tropical region. This study lead to conclude that the atmospheric rivers, when associated to high values of precipitable water vapour over the island can provide favourable conditions to the development of precipitation, sometimes associated with high amounts. However, it was also found that many cases of high to extreme accumulated precipitation at the surface were not associated to this kind of moisture transport.

  12. Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

    2017-12-01

    From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

  13. An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy

  14. An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

    2017-02-01

    Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy

  15. [Influence of planting density and precipitation on N2O emission from a winter wheat field].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y; Jiang, J; Zong, L; Zhou, Q; Sass, R L; Fisher, F M

    2001-11-01

    To investigate the impact of plant density on N2O emission from winter wheat field and the cause of seasonal variation in the emission, field experiment with four planting rates of 0, 90, 180 and 270 kg/ha was conducted at the Jiangning County near Nanjing during 1999-2000 winter wheat growing season. Data of the field measurements indicated that the N2O emission rates during the season from planting to overwintering were not influenced by the plant density, while the emission was positively correlated with the planting density during the season from turning green to maturity. The emissions from the field plots with planting rates of 0 and 90 kg/ha were not found to be significantly different. A further analysis suggested that the seasonal variation of N2O emission be mainly influenced by precipitation, which could be quantitatively described by an exponential function of a weighted average precipitation of 6-day period before measurement.

  16. Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.

    2017-07-01

    Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth

  17. High-resolution precipitation database for the last two centuries in Italy: climatologies and anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespi, Alice; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio

    2017-04-01

    The availability of gridded high-resolution spatial climatologies and corresponding secular records has acquired an increasing importance in the recent years both to research purposes and as decision-support tools in the management of natural resources and economical activities. High-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy were computed by gridding on a 30-arc-second-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) the precipitation normals (1961-1990) obtained from a quality-controlled dataset of about 6200 stations covering the Italian surface and part of the Northern neighbouring regions. Starting from the assumption that the precipitation distribution is strongly influenced by orography, especially elevation, a local weighted linear regression (LWLR) of precipitation versus elevation was performed at each DEM cell. The regression coefficients for each cell were estimated by selecting the stations with the highest weights in which the distances and the level of similarity between the station cells and the considered grid cell, in terms of orographic features, are taken into account. An optimisation procedure was then set up in order to define, for each month and for each grid cell, the most suitable decreasing coefficients for the weighting factors which enter in the LWLR scheme. The model was validated by the comparison with the results provided by inverse distance weighting (IDW) applied both to station normals and to the residuals of a global regression of station normals versus elevation. In both cases, the LWLR leave-one-out reconstructions show the best agreement with the observed station normals, especially when considering specific station clusters (high elevation sites for example). After producing the high-resolution precipitation climatological field, the temporal component on the high-resolution grid was obtained by following the anomaly method. It is based on the assumption that the spatio-temporal structure of the signal of a

  18. Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, M.; Negri, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

  19. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-02-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study, the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed which corrects the radar data for errors related to attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data was implemented because such an adjustment would not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar data. The impact of the different corrections is assessed using rainfall information sampled by 42 hourly rain gauges. The largest improvement in the quality of the radar data is obtained by correcting for ground clutter. The impact of VPR correction and advection depends on the spatial variability and velocity of the precipitation system. Overall during the winter period, the radar underestimates the amount of precipitation as compared to the rain gauges. Remaining differences between both instruments can be attributed to spatial and temporal variability in the type of precipitation, which has not been taken into account.

  20. How Well Are We Measuring Snow? The NOAA/FAA/NCAR Winter Precipitation Test Bed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, B.; Rasmussen, R.; Kochendorfer, J.; Meyers, T.; Nitu, R.; Paul, J.; Smith, C.; Yang, D.

    2012-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric variables for ecosystems, hydrologic systems, climate, and weather forecasting. Despite its importance, accurate measurement remains challenging, and the lack of recent and complete inter-comparisons leads researchers to discount the importance and severity of measurement errors. These errors are exacerbated for the automated measurement of solid precipitation and underestimates of 20-50% are common. While solid precipitation measurements have been the subject of many studies, there have been only a limited number of coordinated assessments on the accuracy, reliability, and repeatability of automatic precipitation measurements. The most recent comprehensive study, the "WMO Solid Precipitation Measurement Inter-comparison" focused on manual techniques of solid precipitation measurement. Precipitation gauge technology has changed considerably in the last 12 years and the focus has shifted to automated techniques. Given the strong need for automated solid precipitation data from both the climate and weather communities, and the widely varying catch efficiencies of the various instruments, inter-comparison studies are needed. The World Meteorological Organization Committee on Meteorological Instruments and Observations (WMO-CIMO) is organizing a Solid Precipitation Inter-comparison Experiment (WMO-SPICE) focused on automatic precipitation gauges and their configurations, in various climate conditions, building on the significant efforts currently underway in many countries. The inter-comparison will aim at understanding and improving our ability to reliably measure solid precipitation using automatic gauges. The study will take place starting in 2012 at sites around the world including the US, Norway, China, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Russia, Finland and New Zealand. The NOAA /FAA/NCAR precipitation test bed in Marshall, CO. in partnership with Environment Canada will collect data during the winter of 2011/2012 to

  1. Climate change projections for winter precipitation over Tropical America using statistical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In this study the Principal Component Regression (PCR) method has been used as statistical downscaling technique for simulating boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America during the period 1950-2010, and then for generating climate change projections for 2071-2100 period. The study uses the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, version 6) data set over the Tropical America region [30°N-30°S, 120°W-30°W] as predictand variable in the downscaling model. The mean monthly sea level pressure (SLP) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis project), has been used as predictor variable, covering a more extended area [30°N-30°S, 180°W-30°W]. Also, the SLP outputs from 20 GCMs, taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been used. The model data include simulations with historical atmospheric concentrations and future projections for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The ability of the different GCMs to simulate the winter precipitation in the study area for present climate (1971-2000) was analyzed by calculating the differences between the simulated and observed precipitation values. Additionally, the statistical significance at 95% confidence level of these differences has been estimated by means of the bilateral rank sum test of Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney. Finally, to project winter precipitation in the area for the period 2071-2100, the downscaling model, recalibrated for the total period 1950-2010, was applied to the SLP outputs of the GCMs under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that, generally, for present climate the statistical downscaling shows a high ability to faithfully reproduce the precipitation field, while the simulations performed directly by using not downscaled outputs of GCMs strongly distort the precipitation field. For future climate, the projected predictions under the RCP4

  2. Isotope composition of winter precipitation and snow cover in the foothills of the Altai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Malygina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, several general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean (atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models  – GCMs have been improved by modeling the hydrological cycle with the use of isotopologues (isotopes of water HDO and H2 18O. Input parameters for the GCM models taking into account changes in the isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation were, above all, the results obtained by the network GNIP – Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. At different times, on the vast territory of Russia there were only about 40 simultaneously functioning stations where the sampling of atmospheric precipitation was performed. In this study we present the results of the isotope composition of samples taken on the foothills of the Altai during two winter seasons of 2014/15 and 2015/16. Values of the isotope composition of precipitation changed in a wide range and their maximum fluctuations were 25, 202 and 18‰ for δ18О, dexc and δD, respectively. The weighted-mean values of δ18О and δD of the precipitation analyzed for the above two seasons were close to each other (−21.1 and −158.1‰ for the first season and −21.1 and −161.9‰ for the second one, while dexc values differed significantly. The comparison of the results of isotope analysis of the snow cover integral samples with the corresponding in the time interval the weighted-mean values of precipitation showed high consistency. However, despite the similarity of values of δ18О and δD, calculated for precipitation and snow cover, and the results, interpolated in IsoMAP (from data of the GNIP stations for 1960–2010, the dexc values were close to mean annual values of IsoMAP for only the second winter season. According to the trajectory analysis (the HYSPLIT model, the revealed differences between both, the seasons, and the long-term average values of IsoMAP, were associated with a change of main regions where the air masses

  3. Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

    2018-01-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

  4. Anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online-Offline, 1999

    1999-01-01

    This theme issue on anomalies includes Web sites, CD-ROMs and software, videos, books, and additional resources for elementary and junior high school students. Pertinent activities are suggested, and sidebars discuss UFOs, animal anomalies, and anomalies from nature; and resources covering unexplained phenonmenas like crop circles, Easter Island,…

  5. The winter trends in air temperature and atmospheric precipitation in the Moldova Region (Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Machidon Ovidiu-Miron

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study is a comparative analysis of the characteristics of air temperature and atmospheric precipitations in winter seasons from the WMO reference periods (1961 - 1990, 1981 – 2010 compared with last 7 years (2010 – 2016. There is a continuous increase of air temperature in winter, from −2,0°C between 1961-1990, to −1,1°C between 2010-2016, so a heating of 0,9°C. In the last 7 years (2010-2016 the average number of frosty nights (nights with minimum temperature of ≤ −10°C was reduced by 18% compared to the period 1961-1990 and by 3% compared to the period 1981-2010. In the same period (2010 – 2016, the rainfall were higher in winter, respectively by 17% than during 1961-1990 and by 22% than during 1981-2010. There is an increase of torrential character of precipitation, more pronounced in the southern region of Moldova.

  6. Particle precipitation events in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA) and geomagnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez Bettucci, L.; Caraballo, R.; Da Silva Barbosa, C.

    2003-01-01

    Particle precipitation events in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA) have been correlated with impulses in the H component of the geomagnetic field. Sudden changes in the H component of the geomagnetic field can produce high intensity peaks in geomagnetic induced currents (GIC) at the Earth’s surface. The effects related to electron precipitation on the upper and middle atmosphere are still not well understood, especially in the area of the SAMA. This study focuses on the Halloween magnetic storm (29-31 October 2003) and two of the largest magnetic storms occurred in 2011. Data from POES and DMSP satellites have been contrasted with the Vassoura s magnetic observatory records and the GIC in a H V transformer neutral at Itumbiara substation (central Brazilian area) to look for possible correlations between d H, the GIC and the precipitation flux of ultrarelativistic electrons. The observations suggest some overlap between episodes of intense precipitation of electrons in the inner radiation belt and impulsive changes in these variables

  7. Interdecadal Change in the Tropical Pacific Precipitation Anomaly Pattern around the Late 1990s during Boreal Spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhiping; Guo, Yuanyuan; Wu, Renguang

    2017-04-01

    The leading mode of boreal spring precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s. The pattern before 1998 features positive precipitation anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) with positive principle component years. The counterpart after 1998 exhibits a westward shift of the positive center to the equatorial central Pacific (CP). Observational evidence shows that this interdecadal change in the leading mode of precipitation variability is closely associated with a distinctive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. The westward shift of the anomalous precipitation center after 1998 is in tandem with a similar shift of maximum warming from the EP to CP. Diagnostic analyses based on a linear equation of the mixed layer temperature anomaly exhibit that an interdecadal enhancement of zonal advection (ZA) feedback process plays a vital role in the shift in the leading mode of both the tropical Pacific SST and the precipitation anomaly during spring. Moreover, the variability of the anomalous zonal current at the upper ocean dominates the ZA feedback change, while the mean zonal SST gradient associated with a La Niña-like pattern of the mean state only accounts for a relatively trivial proportion of the ZA feedback change. It was found that both the relatively rapid decaying of the SST anomalies in the EP and the La Niña-like mean state make it conceivable that the shift of the leading mode of the tropical precipitation anomaly only occurs in spring. In addition, the largest variance of the anomalous zonal current in spring might contribute to the unique interdecadal change in the tropical spring precipitation anomaly pattern.

  8. Multivariate forecast of winter monsoon rainfall in India using SST anomaly as a predictor: Neurocomputing and statistical approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Chattopadhyay, Goutami; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Jain, Rajni

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the complexities in the relationship between rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during the winter monsoon (November-January) over India were evaluated statistically using scatter plot matrices and autocorrelation functions.Linear as well as polynomial trend equations were obtained and it was observed that the coefficient of determination for the linear trend was very low and it remained low even when polynomial trend of degree six was used. An exponential regr...

  9. Summer precipitation anomalies in Asia and North America induced by Eurasian non-monsoon land heating versus ENSO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ping; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jiping; Zhou, Xiuji; Chen, Junming; Nan, Sulan; Liu, Ge; Xiao, Dong

    2016-02-26

    When floods ravage Asian monsoon regions in summer, megadroughts often attack extratropical North America, which feature an intercontinental contrasting precipitation anomaly between Asia and North America. However, the characteristics of the contrasting Asian-North American (CANA) precipitation anomalies and associated mechanisms have not been investigated specifically. In this article, we firmly establish this summer CANA pattern, providing evidence for a significant effect of the land surface thermal forcing over Eurasian non-monsoon regions on the CANA precipitation anomalies by observations and numerical experiments. We show that the origin of the CANA precipitation anomalies and associated anomalous anticyclones over the subtropical North Pacific and Atlantic has a deeper root in Eurasian non-monsoon land surface heating than in North American land surface heating. The ocean forcing from the ENSO is secondary and tends to be confined in the tropics. Our results have strong implications to interpretation of the feedback of global warming on hydrological cycle over Asia and North America. Under the projected global warming due to the anthropogenic forcing, the prominent surface warming over Eurasian non-monsoon regions is a robust feature which, through the mechanism discussed here, would favor a precipitation increase over Asian monsoon regions and a precipitation decrease over extratropical North America.

  10. Simulations of The Extreme Precipitation Event Enhanced by Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakan Doǧan, Onur; Önol, Barış

    2016-04-01

    Istanbul Technical University, Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey In this study, we examined the extreme precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using regional climate model, RegCM4. The flood caused by excessive rain in August 26, 2010 killed 12 people and the landslides in Rize province have damaged many buildings. The station based two days total precipitation exceeds 200 mm. One of the usual suspects for this extreme event is positive anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Black Sea where the significant warming trend is clear in the last three decades. In August 2010, the monthly mean SST is higher than 3 °C with respect to the period of 1981-2010. We designed three sensitivity simulations with RegCM4 to define the effects of the Black Sea as a moisture source. The simulation domain with 10-km horizontal resolution covers all the countries bordering the Black Sea and simulation period is defined for entire August 2010. It is also noted that the spatial variability of the precipitation produced by the reference simulation (Sim-0) is consistent with the TRMM data. In terms of analysis of the sensitivity to SST, we forced the simulations by subtracting 1 °C (Sim-1), 2 °C (Sim-2) and 3 °C (Sim-3) from the ERA-Interim 6-hourly SST data (considering only the Black Sea). The sensitivity simulations indicate that daily total precipitation for all these simulations gradually decreased based on the reference simulation (Sim-0). 3-hourly maximum precipitation rates for Sim-0, Sim-1, Sim-2 and Sim-3 are 32, 25, 13 and 10.5 mm respectively over the hotspot region. Despite the fact that the simulations signal points out the same direction, degradation of the precipitation intensity does not indicate the same magnitude for all simulations. It is revealed that 2 °C (Sim-2) threshold is critical for SST sensitivity. We also calculated the humidity differences from the simulation and these

  11. Modeling an Extreme Precipitation Event over the Atacama Desert: The Impact of Warmer SST Anomalies in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rondanelli, R. F.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    Northern Chile (NC), located along the west coast of South America between 28°S-20°S, hosts the driest place on Earth, Quillagua in the Atacama Desert (annual mean precipitation of 0.05 mm for 1969-2000 period). Nonetheless, an extreme precipitation event affected the region on 24-26 March 2015 with 1-day accumulated precipitation exceeding 40 mm in several locations and 4 mm in Quillagua, producing floods and resulting in casualties and significant damage. Two favorable conditions existed during the event: (i) a specific synoptic condition dominated by a cut-off low (COL) pressure system off the coasts of NC and (ii) positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over eastern tropical Pacific favored by the onset of El Niño pattern. The main issue of the present study is to disentangle the relative role of SST anomaly and the COL in explaining this extreme precipitation event. The event is investigated using a regional climate model and its sensitivity to SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific is tested. The ICTP-RegCM4 model is applied in a nested configuration with two domains at 60- and 10-km resolutions using different convective precipitation schemes. Boundary conditions are provided by ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and different temporal SST input fields (weekly and daily) are used. Results indicate that simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily SST data realistically represent the precipitation distribution and associated convective systems over NC under the mixed convective scheme. The precipitation maxima appeared to be in the coastal areas and propagate inland, following the location of the COL center that allowed northerly moisture transport towards the Atacama Desert. In order to test sensitivity of precipitation to SST, the warm anomaly of SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is removed, which leads to a cooler SST forcing in the sensitivity experiment. The cooler SST simulation reproduced a very similar COL

  12. High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesús

    2017-11-01

    Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971-2000) and for the future (2071-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part.

  13. Investigation the Concentration and Trend of Winter Precipitation of Iranian Border Stations over the Last Half Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keyvan Khalili

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Climate change in the current era is a very important environmental challenge. Our understanding of the impacts of human activities on the environment, especially those related to global warming caused by increased greenhouse gases indicates that, most probably, a number of hydro-climatic parameters are changing. Based on the scientific reports, the average temperature of the earth has increased about 0.6 degrees centigrade over the 20th century and it is expected that the amount of evaporation continues to rise. In this case, the atmosphere would be able to transport larger amounts of water vapor, influencing the amount of atmospheric precipitations (21. Low precipitation and its severe fluctuations in the daily, seasonal and annual time scales are the intrinsic characteristics of Iran’s climates. Based on the research background, it seems that no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentration of winter precipitation in Iran. The aim of this study is to calculate the concentration and Trend of precipitation of Iranian border stations over the last half-century. Materials and Methods: Iran with an area of over16480000 square kilometers is situated in the northern hemisphere and southwest of Asia. Almost all parts of Iran have four seasons. In general, a year can be divided into two warm and cold seasons. In this study, 18 stations were selected among more than 200 synoptic stations existing in the country, for investigating the concentration and precipitation trend. PCI Index The PCI index has been proposed as an index of precipitation concentration. The seasonal scales of this index are calculated as equation 1(18: (1 Where Pi is the amount of monthly precipitation in the ith month. Based on the proposed formula, the minimum value of theoretical PCI is 8.3, indicating absolute uniformity in the precipitation concentration (i.e. the same amount of precipitation occurs every month. Trend analysis The aim of process test

  14. Interdecadal Variability of Winter Precipitation in Northwest China and Its Association with the North Atlantic SST Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liantong, Zhou

    2017-04-01

    Winter precipitation in Northwest China experienced an obvious interdecadal increase around 1987. Consistent increase in winter precipitation occurred in Middle Asia. The present study investigates associated changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). Analyses show that winter water vapor flux and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Eurasia and SST in the North Atlantic Ocean were very different before and after 1987. During 1987-2008, a significant enhancement of tropospheric moisture convergence and ascending motion was observed over Northwest China and Middle Asia. This contributed to the increase of winter precipitation in Northwest China and Middle Asia. The wind difference field before and after 1986/87 features cyclones over Middle Asia and northern Atlantic Ocean and anticyclones over East Asia and southern Europe-northern Africa, signifying an obvious change in the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern over middle latitudes of Eurasia. The results indicate that the Middle Asia and Northwest China were under the influence of enhanced westerlies from the North Atlantic Ocean that strengthened the water vapor transport to Middle Asia and Northwest China after 1987. Moreover, the interdecadal variability in the EU pattern is associated with the SST increase in the North Atlantic Ocean. Thus, the North Atlantic SST change is likely an important reason for the winter precipitation increase in Middle Asia and Northwest China.

  15. The interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China and its relationship with the SST anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Y.; Xu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Based on the observed precipitation data from 756 China stations, ERA-interim reanalysis dataset, and HadISST dataset for 1979-2014, this paper investigates the intensity of interannual variation (IIV) of spring precipitation over southern China during 1979-2014 and related large-scale atmospheric and oceanic signal through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and other statistical analysis methods. The results show that the IIV of spring precipitation over South China (SC) was stronger during 1979-1994, which is related to the spring western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the previous winter South Pacific tripole (SPT) pattern of SSTA. Anomalous cooler (warmer) WP SSTA triggers anomalous descending (ascending) motion and lower-level anticyclone (cyclone), which in turn induces anomalous ascent (descent) over SC through an anomalous vertical circulation. The SPT can influence the spring precipitation over SC by impacting WP SST. The stronger IIV of WP SST and SPT led to an intensified IIV of spring rainfall over SC. The IIV of spring precipitation over middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (YZR) was more intense during 1995-2006. The intensified interannual variability of spring rainfall over YZR is interrelated with the increase in the amplitude of the spring southern Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) in early 1990s. During the positive (negative) SIOD, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is stronger (weaker), which is favorable (unfavorable) for the transportation of vapor from Pacific to YZR. At the same time, the pressure ridge over Siberia and East Asian trough is weaker (stronger), enhancing (weakening) the spring precipitation over YZR.

  16. [Effects of ground cover and water-retaining agent on winter wheat growth and precipitation utilization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ji-Cheng; Guan, Xiu-Juan; Yang, Yong-Hui

    2011-01-01

    An investigation was made at a hilly upland in western Henan Province to understand the effects of water-retaining agent (0, 45, and 60 kg x hm(-2)), straw mulching (3000 and 6000 kg x hm(-2)), and plastic mulching (thickness straw- or plastic mulching was combined with the use of water-retaining agent. Comparing with the control, all the measures increased the soil moisture content at different growth stages by 0.1%-6.5%. Plastic film mulching had the best water-retention effect before jointing stage, whereas water-retaining agent showed its best effect after jointing stage. Soil moisture content was the lowest at flowering and grain-filling stages. Land cover increased the grain yield by 2.6%-20.1%. The yield increment was the greatest (14.2%-20.1%) by the combined use of straw mulching and water-retaining agent, followed by plastic mulching combined with water-retaining agent (11.9% on average). Land cover also improved the precipitation use efficiency (0.4-3.2 kg x mm(-1) x hm(-2)) in a similar trend as the grain yield. This study showed that land cover and water-retaining agent improved soil moisture and nutrition conditions and precipitation utilization, which in turn, promoted the tillering of winter wheat, and increased the grain number per ear and the 1000-grain mass.

  17. Quantifying the non-linearity of the response of Malagasy watersheds to precipitation anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stampoulis, D.; Haddad, Z. S.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Li, L.

    2012-12-01

    of the hydrologic properties that are being objectively derived from microwave remote sensing, and which shed new light on the different intra-annual response of the different watersheds and their interannual dependence on the local precipitation anomaly.

  18. Winter precipitation and snow accumulation drive the methane sink or source strength of Arctic tussock tundra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc-Betes, Elena; Welker, Jeffrey M; Sturchio, Neil C; Chanton, Jeffrey P; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel A

    2016-08-01

    Arctic winter precipitation is projected to increase with global warming, but some areas will experience decreases in snow accumulation. Although Arctic CH4 emissions may represent a significant climate forcing feedback, long-term impacts of changes in snow accumulation on CH4 fluxes remain uncertain. We measured ecosystem CH4 fluxes and soil CH4 and CO2 concentrations and (13) C composition to investigate the metabolic pathways and transport mechanisms driving moist acidic tundra CH4 flux over the growing season (Jun-Aug) after 18 years of experimental snow depth increases and decreases. Deeper snow increased soil wetness and warming, reducing soil %O2 levels and increasing thaw depth. Soil moisture, through changes in soil %O2 saturation, determined predominance of methanotrophy or methanogenesis, with soil temperature regulating the ecosystem CH4 sink or source strength. Reduced snow (RS) increased the fraction of oxidized CH4 (Fox) by 75-120% compared to Ambient, switching the system from a small source to a net CH4 sink (21 ± 2 and -31 ± 1 mg CH4  m(-2)  season(-1) at Ambient and RS). Deeper snow reduced Fox by 35-40% and 90-100% in medium- (MS) and high- (HS) snow additions relative to Ambient, contributing to increasing the CH4 source strength of moist acidic tundra (464 ± 15 and 3561 ± 97 mg CH4  m(-2)  season(-1) at MS and HS). Decreases in Fox with deeper snow were partly due to increases in plant-mediated CH4 transport associated with the expansion of tall graminoids. Deeper snow enhanced CH4 production within newly thawed soils, responding mainly to soil warming rather than to increases in acetate fermentation expected from thaw-induced increases in SOC availability. Our results suggest that increased winter precipitation will increase the CH4 source strength of Arctic tundra, but the resulting positive feedback on climate change will depend on the balance between areas with more or less snow accumulation than they are currently

  19. An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

    2017-12-01

    The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

  20. The Relationships Between Insoluble Precipitation Residues, Clouds, and Precipitation Over California's Southern Sierra Nevada During Winter Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creamean, Jessie M.; White, Allen B.; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Spangenberg, Douglas A.; Prather, Kimberly A.

    2016-01-01

    Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.

  1. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    OpenAIRE

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Str...

  2. Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

    2018-01-01

    Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

  3. Accurate Characterization of Winter Precipitation Using Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera, Visual Hull, Advanced Scattering Methods and Polarimetric Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branislav M. Notaroš

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes and presents a novel approach to the characterization of winter precipitation and modeling of radar observables through a synergistic use of advanced optical disdrometers for microphysical and geometrical measurements of ice and snow particles (in particular, a multi-angle snowflake camera—MASC, image processing methodology, advanced method-of-moments scattering computations, and state-of-the-art polarimetric radars. The article also describes the newly built and established MASCRAD (MASC + Radar in-situ measurement site, under the umbrella of CSU-CHILL Radar, as well as the MASCRAD project and 2014/2015 winter campaign. We apply a visual hull method to reconstruct 3D shapes of ice particles based on high-resolution MASC images, and perform “particle-by-particle” scattering computations to obtain polarimetric radar observables. The article also presents and discusses selected illustrative observation data, results, and analyses for three cases with widely-differing meteorological settings that involve contrasting hydrometeor forms. Illustrative results of scattering calculations based on MASC images captured during these events, in comparison with radar data, as well as selected comparative studies of snow habits from MASC, 2D video-disdrometer, and CHILL radar data, are presented, along with the analysis of microphysical characteristics of particles. In the longer term, this work has potential to significantly improve the radar-based quantitative winter-precipitation estimation.

  4. Impacts of interactive dust and its direct radiative forcing on interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in winter over East Asia: Impacts of Dust on IAVs of Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2017-08-24

    We used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leads to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of

  5. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-01-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already

  6. Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stager, J. C.; Mayewski, P. A.; White, J.; Chase, B. M.; Neumann, F. H.; Meadows, M. E.; King, C. D.; Dixon, D. A.

    2012-05-01

    The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400-1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

  7. Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Stager

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400–1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

  8. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  9. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Meraner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  10. Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

    2018-03-01

    Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

  11. The isotopic composition of precipitation from a winter storm – a case study with the limited-area model COSMOiso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yoshimura

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Stable water isotopes are valuable tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, and potentially provide useful information also on weather-related processes. In order to further explore this potential, the water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated into the limited-area model COSMO. In a first case study, the new COSMOiso model is used for simulating a winter storm event in January 1986 over the eastern United States associated with intense frontal precipitation. The modelled isotope ratios in precipitation and water vapour are compared to spatially distributed δ18O observations. COSMOiso very accurately reproduces the statistical distribution of δ18O in precipitation, and also the synoptic-scale spatial pattern and temporal evolution agree well with the measurements. Perpendicular to the front that triggers most of the rainfall during the event, the model simulates a gradient in the isotopic composition of the precipitation, with high δ18O values in the warm air and lower values in the cold sector behind the front. This spatial pattern is created through an interplay of large scale air mass advection, removal of heavy isotopes by precipitation at the front and microphysical interactions between rain drops and water vapour beneath the cloud base. This investigation illustrates the usefulness of high resolution, event-based model simulations for understanding the complex processes that cause synoptic-scale variability of the isotopic composition of atmospheric waters. In future research, this will be particularly beneficial in combination with laser spectrometric isotope observations with high temporal resolution.

  12. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-01-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar

  13. Time variations of the effects of circulation variability modes on European temperature and precipitation in winter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Huth, Radan

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 2 (2008), s. 139-158 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/05/2282; GA AV ČR IAA300420506 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : temperature * precipitation * modes of variability * time variations * Euro-Atlantic sector Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.971, year: 2008

  14. Accurate Forecasting of the Satellite-Derived Seasonal Caspian Sea Level Anomaly Using Polynomial Interpolation and Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moslem Imani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Polynomial interpolation and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES are used to analyze and forecast Caspian Sea level anomalies derived from 15-year Topex/Poseidon (T/P and Jason-1 (J-1 altimetry covering 1993 to 2008. Because along-track altimetric products may contain temporal and spatial data gaps, a least squares polynomial interpolation is performed to fill the gaps of along-track sea surface heights used. The modeling results of a 3-year forecasting time span (2005 - 2008 derived using HWES agree well with the observed time series with a correlation coefficient of 0.86. Finally, the 3-year forecasted Caspian Sea level anomalies are compared with those obtained using an artificial neural network method with reasonable agreement found.

  15. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution vs. long-range transported dust

    OpenAIRE

    J. Fan; L. R. Leung; P. J. DeMott; J. M. Comstock; B. Singh; D. Rosenfeld; J. M. Tomlinson; A. White; K. A. Prather; P. Minnis; J. K. Ayers; Q. Min

    2013-01-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical mode...

  16. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical mod...

  17. Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2017-12-01

    An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

  18. Accurate Characterization of Winter Precipitation Using In-Situ Instrumentation, CSU-CHILL Radar, and Advanced Scattering Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, A. J.; Notaros, B. M.; Bringi, V. N.; Kleinkort, C.; Huang, G. J.; Kennedy, P.; Thurai, M.

    2015-12-01

    We present a novel approach to remote sensing and characterization of winter precipitation and modeling of radar observables through a synergistic use of advanced in-situ instrumentation for microphysical and geometrical measurements of ice and snow particles, image processing methodology to reconstruct complex particle three-dimensional (3D) shapes, computational electromagnetics to analyze realistic precipitation scattering, and state-of-the-art polarimetric radar. Our in-situ measurement site at the Easton Valley View Airport, La Salle, Colorado, shown in the figure, consists of two advanced optical imaging disdrometers within a 2/3-scaled double fence intercomparison reference wind shield, and also includes PLUVIO snow measuring gauge, VAISALA weather station, and collocated NCAR GPS advanced upper-air system sounding system. Our primary radar is the CSU-CHILL radar, with a dual-offset Gregorian antenna featuring very high polarization purity and excellent side-lobe performance in any plane, and the in-situ instrumentation site being very conveniently located at a range of 12.92 km from the radar. A multi-angle snowflake camera (MASC) is used to capture multiple different high-resolution views of an ice particle in free-fall, along with its fall speed. We apply a visual hull geometrical method for reconstruction of 3D shapes of particles based on the images collected by the MASC, and convert these shapes into models for computational electromagnetic scattering analysis, using a higher order method of moments. A two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD), collocated with the MASC, provides 2D contours of a hydrometeor, along with the fall speed and other important parameters. We use the fall speed from the MASC and the 2DVD, along with state parameters measured at the Easton site, to estimate the particle mass (Böhm's method), and then the dielectric constant of particles, based on a Maxwell-Garnet formula. By calculation of the "particle-by-particle" scattering

  19. Winter precipitation effect in a mid-latitude temperature-limited environment: the case of common juniper at high elevation in the Alps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellizzari, Elena; Pividori, Mario; Carrer, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Common juniper (Juniperus communis L.) is by far the most widespread conifer in the world. However, tree-ring research dealing with this species is still scarce, mainly due to the difficulty in crossdating associated with the irregular stem shape with strip-bark growth form in older individuals and the high number of missing and wedging rings. Given that many different species of the same genus have been successfully used in tree-ring investigations and proved to be reliable climate proxies, this study aims to (i) test the possibility to successfully apply dendrochronological techniques on common juniper growing above the treeline and (ii) verify the climate sensitivity of the species with special regard to winter precipitation, a climatic factor that generally does not affect tree-ring growth in all Alpine high-elevation tree species. Almost 90 samples have been collected in three sites in the central and eastern Alps, all between 2100 and 2400 m in elevation. Despite cross-dating difficulties, we were able to build a reliable chronology for each site, each spanning over 200 years. Climate-growth relationships computed over the last century highlight that juniper growth is mainly controlled by the amount of winter precipitation. The high variability of the climate-growth associations among sites, corresponds well to the low spatial dependence of this meteorological factor. Fairly long chronologies and the presence of a significant precipitation signal open up the possibility to reconstruct past winter precipitation. (letter)

  20. Sensitivity of the Himalayan orography representation in simulation of winter precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Sinha, P.; Shekhar, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    The role of the Himalayan orography representation in a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested in NCMRWF global spectral model is examined in simulating the winter circulation and associated precipitation over the Northwest India (NWI; 23°-37.5°N and 69°-85°E) region. For this purpose, nine different set of orography representations for nine distinct precipitation years (three years each for wet, normal and dry) have been considered by increasing (decreasing) 5, 10, 15, and 20% from the mean height (CNTRL) of the Himalaya in RegCM4 model. Validation with various observations revealed a good improvement in reproducing the precipitation intensity and distribution with increased model height compared to the results obtained from CNTRL and reduced orography experiments. Further it has been found that, increase in height by 10% (P10) increases seasonal precipitation about 20%, while decrease in height by 10% (M10) results around 28% reduction in seasonal precipitation as compared to CNTRL experiment over NWI region. This improvement in precipitation simulation comes due to better representation of vertical pressure velocity and moisture transport as these factors play an important role in wintertime precipitation processes over NWI region. Furthermore, a comparison of model-simulated precipitation with observed precipitation at 17 station locations has been also carried out. Overall, the results suggest that when the orographic increment of 10% (P10) is applied on RegCM4 model, it has better skill in simulating the precipitation over the NWI region and this model is a useful tool for further regional downscaling studies.

  1. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution vs. long-range transported dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

    2013-07-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust or dust/biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust/biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a 40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for

  2. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases (from the CalWater 2011 field campaign) with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02). In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by a few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present, but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology, including cloud dynamics and the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental

  3. Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Lisi Pei; Xindi (Randy) Bian; Warren E. Heilman

    2016-01-01

    The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for...

  4. [Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. III. Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China based on the percentage of precipitation anomalies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

    2013-02-01

    To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and occurrence regularity of seasonal drought can provide theoretical basis for constituting the countermeasures of drought resistance and drought mitigation under the background of global climate change. Based on the 1959-2008 daily precipitation and atmospheric temperature data collected from the meteorological stations in 15 provinces (municipalities, and autonomous regions) of southern China, and using the percentages of precipitation anomalies (Pa) in the national standard "Meteorological Drought Classification", which were locally modified, the drought indices in southern China in 1959-2008 were calculated, and the spatial distribution characteristics of drought frequency in southern China in each year, each season, and each month, as well as the inter-annual changes of the drought intensity and the proportions of the stations with seasonal drought were analyzed. In the study period, the annual drought risk in southern China was generally low. There existed obvious seasonal differences in the spatial distribution characteristics of the drought. Autumn drought was most frequent and most intensive, mainly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, South China and in the other major agricultural areas, winter drought was also frequent and intensive, mainly occurred in the west of Southwest China and the South China and other winter crop planting areas, while spring drought and summer drought were relatively less frequent or intensive. Spring drought mostly occurred in the southwest of Southwest China, the south of South China, and Huaibei area etc. , and summer drought mostly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, southeastern coastal area of Fujian, and northeast of Southwest China. The area with drought frequently occurred showed an obvious monthly fluctuation and space transformation, which was decreased with time from November to next May, increased with time from May to

  5. On the winter anomaly of the night-to-day ratio of ozone in the middle to upper mesosphere in middle to high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnemann, G. R.; Hartogh, P.; Jarchow, Ch.; Grygalashvyly, M.; Berger, U.

    Long-term measurements of ozone by means of the microwave technique performed at Lindau (51.66°N, 10.13°E), Germany, revealed a winter anomaly of the night-to-day ratio (NDR) which is more clearly pronounced as the so-called tertiary nighttime ozone maximum. The domain of occurrence also differs somewhat from that of the nighttime ozone enhancement. The maximum winter-to-summer ratio amounts to a value of two to three in 70 km height. The annual variation of the NDR is modulated by oscillations of planetary time scale. 3D-calculations on the basis of the advanced GCM LIMA essentially reflect the observations but also show some typical differences which probably result from a somewhat too humid model atmosphere in middle latitudes. We analyzed the most important impacts on the middle mesospheric ozone. The strongest impacts are connected with the annual variation of water vapor and the so-called Doppler-Sonnemann effect considering the influence of the zonal wind on the chemistry due to the fact that ozone is subjected to an effective dissociation longer than molecular oxygen for an increasing solar zenith angle. Because of that the net odd oxygen production decreases faster than the formation of atomic oxygen from ozone which is involved in an odd oxygen destructing catalytic cycle. A shortening of the time of sunset by a west wind regime increases the nighttime ozone level relatively, whereas the daytime ozone is less influenced by the zonal wind in the domain considered.

  6. Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-11-15

    A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

  7. Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Winter Wheat and Cropping System Performance across Precipitation Gradients in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai M. Maaz

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ecological instability and low resource use efficiencies are concerns for the long-term productivity of conventional cereal monoculture systems, particularly those threatened by projected climate change. Crop intensification, diversification, reduced tillage, and variable N management are among strategies proposed to mitigate and adapt to climate shifts in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW. Our objectives were to assess these strategies across iPNW agroecological zones and time for their impacts on (1 winter wheat (WW (Triticum aestivum L. productivity, (2 crop sequence productivity, and (3 N fertilizer use efficiency. Region-wide analysis indicated that WW yields increased with increasing annual precipitation, prior to maximizing at 520 mm yr−1 and subsequently declining when annual precipitation was not adjusted for available soil water holding capacity. While fallow periods were effective at mitigating low nitrogen (N fertilization efficiencies under low precipitation, efficiencies declined as annual precipitation exceeded 500 mm yr−1. Variability in the response of WW yields to annual precipitation and N fertilization among locations and within sites supports precision N management implementation across the region. In years receiving <350 mm precipitation yr−1, WW yields declined when preceded by crops rather than summer fallow. Nevertheless, WW yields were greater when preceded by pulses and oilseeds rather than wheat across a range of yield potentials, and when under conservation tillage practices at low yield potentials. Despite the yield penalty associated with eliminating fallow prior to WW, cropping system level productivity was not affected by intensification, diversification, or conservation tillage. However, increased fertilizer N inputs, lower fertilizer N use efficiencies, and more yield variance may offset and limit the economic feasibility of intensified and diversified cropping systems.

  8. On the coupling between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: contributions to decadal drought anomalies in the Southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanlei Sun; Haishan Chen; Weimin Ju; Guojie Wang; Ge Sun; Jin Huang; Hedi Ma; Chujie Gao; Wenjian Hua; Guixia Yan

    2016-01-01

    Under the exacerbation of climate change, cli· mate extreme events. especially for drought, happened frequently and intensively across the globe with greater spatial differences. We used the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index computed from the routine meteorological observations at 269 sites in Southwest China (SWC) to study the drought characteristics...

  9. observation and analysis of the structure of winter precipitation-generating clouds using ground-based sensor measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez José Luis, Marcos; Gómez José Luis, Sánchez; Campano Laura, López; Ortega Eduardo, García; Suances Andrés, Merino; González Sergio, Fernández; Salvador Estíbaliz, Gascón; González Lucía, Hermida

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we used a 28-day database corresponding to December, January and February of 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 campaigns to analyze cloud structure that produced precipitation in the Sierra Norte near Madrid, Spain. We used remote sensing measurements, both active type like the K-band Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and passive type like the Radiometrics MP-3000A multichannel microwave radiometer. Using reflectivity data from the MRR, we determined the important microphysical parameters of Ice Water Content (IWC) and its integrated value over the atmospheric column, or Ice Water Path (IWP). Among the measurements taken by the MP-3000A were Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). By representing these data together, sharp declines in LWP and IWV were evident, coincident with IWP increases. This result indicates the ability of a K-band radar to measure the amount of ice in the atmospheric column, simultaneously revealing the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen mechanism. We also used a Present Weather Sensor (VPF-730; Biral Ltd., Bristol, UK) to determine the type and amount of precipitation at the surface. With these data, we used regression equations to establish the relationship between visibility and precipitation intensity. In addition, through theoretical precipitation visibility-intensity relationships, we estimated the type of crystal, degree of accretion (riming), and moisture content of fallen snow crystals.

  10. Sensitivity of crop yield and N losses in winter wheat to changes in mean and variability of temperature and precipitation in Denmark using the FASSET model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Raveendra Hanumantagoud; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2012-01-01

    Sensitivity of wheat yield and soil nitrogen (N) losses to stepwise changes in means and variances of climatic variables were determined using the FASSET model. The LARS-WG was used to generate climate scenarios using observed climate data (1961–90) from two sites in Denmark, which differed...... in climate and soil conditions. Scenarios involved changes to (i) mean temperature alone, (ii) mean and variability of temperature, (iii) winter and summer precipitation amounts and (iv) duration of dry and wet series. The model predicted lower grain yield and N uptake in response to increases in mean...... temperatures, caused by early maturity, with little change in variability. This, however, increased soil mineral N causing increased N losses. On sandy loam, larger temperature variability lowered grain yields and increased N losses coupled with higher variability at all the mean temperature ranges. On coarse...

  11. Trends in daily precipitation in highlands region of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the occurrence of trends in time series of precipitation in the highlands region of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. Daily precipitation data of three weather stations at Lages, São Joaquim and Campos Novos were used to evaluate rainfall trends. The trends were analyzed through the Seasonal Mann Kendall test, to include occurrence of maximum annual 1-day precipitation (RX1, maximum annual consecutive 2-day precipitation (RX2 and maximum annual consecutive 3-day precipitation (RX3 and evaluation of Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI. Trends were identified in two of three weather stations investigated. Positive precipitation trends were found in the spring and winter for Lages, and in the spring and summer for São Joaquim. Also, there is a trend of increase in the RX1, RX2 and RX3 frequencies and an increase in positive anomalies in the last decade for these stations. There are no statistically significant trends in the precipitation of Campos Novos, which may be associated with the short series of available data for the analysis. The occurrence of El Niño phenomenon with moderate to strong intensity was usually associated with the occurrence of positive precipitation anomalies and the La Niña phenomenon was related to the occurrence of negative anomalies. However, the influence of La Niña in the periods of negative anomaly has been reduced since the beginning of the 21st century.

  12. About the nature of regional thermal anomaly in the Semipalatinsk Test Site region revealed basing on remote space sensing data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melent'ev, M.I.; Velikanov, A.E.

    2003-01-01

    A thermal anomaly, (more than 20,000 sq. km) discovered in the Semipalatinsk Test Site region in the pictures from space, is observed every year on certain days mainly in winter-spring season. Appearance of the thermal anomaly often coincides with days of intensive fall of atmospheric precipitation and possible thawing of snow cover together with decreasing of ozone concentration in atmosphere. The explanation of thermal anomaly in the Semipalatinsk Test Site region due to nuclear reaction caused by the energy of radionuclide radioactive decay deposited in a soil layer after ground and air nuclear explosions and radiolysis processes in soil solutions is given in this article. (author)

  13. Time series analysis of precipitation and vegetation to detect food production anomalies in the Horn of Africa. The case of Lower Shabelle (Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Belenguer-Plomer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Horn of Africa is one of the most food-insecure locations around the world due to the continuous increase of its population and the practice of the subsistence agriculture. This causes that much of the population cannot take the minimum nutritional needs for a healthy life. Moreover, this situation of food vulnerability may be seriously affected in the coming years due to the effects of climate change. The aim of this work is combine the information about the state of the vegetation that offers the NDVI with rainfall data to detect negative anomalies in food production. This work has been used the monthly products of NDVI MOD13A3 of MODIS and the rainfall estimation product TAMSAT, both during the period 2001-2015. With these products we have calculated the average of the entire time period selected and we have detected the years whose NDVI values were further away from the average, being these 2010, 2011 and 2014. Once detected the years with major anomalies in NDVI, there has been an exclusive monthly analysis of those years, where we have analysed the relationships between the value of NDVI and monthly rainfall, obtaining a direct relationship between the two values. It also has been used crop calendar to focus the analysis in the months of agricultural production and finding that the main cause of anomalies in vegetation is a decrease in the registration of rainfall during the months of agricultural production. This reason explains the origin of the food shortages that occurred in 2010 and 2011 that generated an enormous humanitarian crisis in this area.

  14. Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in warm conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in winter - a model study with ECHAM6-HAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Hanna; Madonna, Erica; Witlox, Kasja; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Wernli, Heini; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2017-05-01

    While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global climate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and amount of precipitation can be detected in North Pacific warm conveyor belts. Warm conveyor belts are the strongest precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones and are identified here with a Lagrangian technique, i.e. by objectively identifying the most strongly ascending trajectories in North Pacific cyclones. These conveyor belts have been identified separately in 10-year ECHAM6-HAM simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol conditions. Then, the evolution of aerosols and cloud properties has been analysed in detail along the identified warm conveyor belt trajectories. The results show that, under present-day conditions, some warm conveyor belt trajectories are strongly polluted (i.e. high concentrations of black carbon and sulfur dioxide) due to horizontal transport from eastern Asia to the oceanic region where warm conveyor belts start their ascent. In these polluted trajectories a weak delay and reduction of precipitation formation occurs compared to clean warm conveyor belt trajectories. However, all warm conveyor belts consist of both polluted and clean trajectories at the time they start their ascent, and the typically more abundant clean trajectories strongly reduce the aerosol impact from the polluted trajectories. The main conclusion then is that the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial conditions, when all warm conveyor belt trajectories are clean, and in present-day conditions, when warm conveyor belts consist of a mixture of clean and polluted trajectories.

  15. Winter Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Centers Harwood Training Grants Videos E-Tools Winter Storms Plan. Equip. Train To prevent injuries, illnesses and Fatalities during winter storms. This page requires that javascript be enabled ...

  16. Use of Thermal Data to Estimate Infiltration in Pagany Wash Associated with the winter of 1997-1998 El Nino Precipitation, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LeCain, G.D.; Lu, N.; Kurzmack, M.

    2000-01-01

    Temperature and air-pressure monitoring in a vertical borehole located in Pagany Wash, a normally dry stream-carved channel northeast of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, indicated that the annual temperature wave was measurable to a depth of 11.1 m. Temperature depressions were measured at depths of 3.1, 6.1, 9.2, and 11.1 m below ground surface. The temperature depressions were interpreted to be the result of infiltration associated with the 1997-1998 El Nino precipitation. A pressure differential, of approximately 2 kiloPascals, between stations located 11.1 and 24.5 m below ground surface was interpreted to be the result of compressed air ahead of the wetting front. The pressure differences between stations indicated that the wetting front migrated deeper than 35.2 m and that the Yucca Mountain Tuff retarded the downward movement of the wetting front. An analytical method indicated that the infiltration flux through the Pagany Wash alluvium due to the 1997-1998 El Nino precipitation was approximately 940 mm. A one-dimensional numerical model indicated that the infiltration flux was approximately 1000 mm. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the potential temperature decrease due to conduction was minimal and that cooler surface temperatures could not account for the measured subsurface temperature depressions

  17. Winter MVC

    OpenAIRE

    Castellón Gadea, Pasqual

    2013-01-01

    Winter MVC és un framework de presentació basat en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodologia de configuracions. Winter MVC es un framework de presentación basado en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodología de configuraciones. Winter MVC is a presentation framework that simplifies Spring MVC configuration methodology.

  18. Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Förster, Kristian; Hanzer, Florian; Stoll, Elena; Scaife, Adam A.; MacLachlan, Craig; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Achleitner, Stefan; Strasser, Ulrich

    2018-02-01

    This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r = 0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r = 0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

  19. Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Förster

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5 drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r  =  0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r  =  0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

  20. Why was Atmospheric Circulation Decoupled from Tropical Pacific SSTs in 2014/15 winter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, P.

    2015-12-01

    In late 2014 and early 2015, although Niño3.4 index exceeded the threshold for a weak-moderate El Niño, a canonical atmospheric response to ENSO event was not observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. In an effort to understand why it was so, this study decomposed the DJF mean sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation rate and 200hPa stream function anomalies observed in the 2014/15 winter into the patterns related to the principal components of the DJF SST variability. It is found that the anomalies of these variables were mainly determined by the patterns related to two SST modes, one is the North Pacific Mode (NPM), and the other the El Niño and South Oscillation (ENSO) mode. The NPM was the dominant factor and was responsible for the apparent uncoupled air-sea relationship in the central equatorial Pacific and the east-west structure of the circulation anomalies over North America. The ENSO mode was important for SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and for the circulation in the central equatorial Pacific. Further, ENSO signal likely evolved from the NPM pattern in the 2013/14 winter, however, its full development was impeded by the unusual persistence of the strong NPM throughout the year. The analysis for DJF 2014/15 winter indicates that the SST anomalies in Niño3.4 alone were not adequate for capturing the coupling of ocean and atmosphere anomalies in the tropical Pacific, due to the fact that it can't distinguish if the SST anomaly in the Niño3.4 region is associated with the ENSO mode or NPM, or both.

  1. Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

  2. Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud

  3. DOWN'S ANOMALY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    PENROSE, L.S.; SMITH, G.F.

    BOTH CLINICAL AND PATHOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND MATHEMATICAL ELABORATIONS OF DOWN'S ANOMALY, KNOWN ALSO AS MONGOLISM, ARE PRESENTED IN THIS REFERENCE MANUAL FOR PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL. INFORMATION PROVIDED CONCERNS (1) HISTORICAL STUDIES, (2) PHYSICAL SIGNS, (3) BONES AND MUSCLES, (4) MENTAL DEVELOPMENT, (5) DERMATOGLYPHS, (6) HEMATOLOGY, (7)…

  4. Analogue forecasting of New Zealand climate anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, A. Brett; Thompson, Craig S.

    2006-03-01

    An analogue forecast scheme is described for multifield prediction of monthly and seasonal New Zealand climate anomalies on the basis of the methodology of Livezey and Barnston ([1988]) for US seasonal temperatures. The method is applied to predicting terciles of temperature and precipitation for six regions of New Zealand. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure predictors down to a set of five independent indices, which incorporate variations due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean sea temperatures and a wave 3 pattern in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. A full bootstrap cross-validation procedure is carried out, along with Monte Carlo tests, to assess the skill of the method on independent data and to determine the significance of the results. Significant skill is found for seasonal temperature forecasts for the summer and winter seasons; there is less success in predicting monthly temperatures or rainfall at either timescale. Considerable care is required to constrain the climate state vector, from which analogues are defined, and to constrain the search procedure itself, in order to produce results that are stable with respect to small parameter changes in the model. For the New Zealand region, 5 to 7 is found to be the optimum number of closest analogues, and the inclusion of anti-analogues improves the predictions, at least in the seasonal case. Skill in predicting regional temperature and rainfall is shown to be related to a combination of skill in predicting sea-level pressure patterns and to how strongly these patterns project onto temperature and rainfall anomalies.

  5. Winter Wonderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Mary

    2011-01-01

    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  6. Assessing the relative influence of surface soil moisture and ENSO SST on precipitation predictability over the contiguous United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-06-28

    This study assesses the relative influence of soil moisture memory and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal rainfall over the contiguous United States. Using observed precipitation, the NINO3.4 index and soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated by a land surface model for 61 years, analysis was performed using partial correlations to evaluate to what extent land surface and SST anomaly of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect seasonal precipitation over different regions and seasons. Results show that antecedent soil moisture is as important as concurrent ENSO condition in controlling rainfall anomalies over the U.S., but they generally dominate in different seasons with SST providing more predictability during winter while soil moisture, through its linkages to evapotranspiration and snow water, has larger influence in spring and early summer. The proposed methodology is applicable to climate model outputs to evaluate the intensity of land-atmosphere coupling and its relative importance.

  7. Assessing the relative influence of surface soil moisture and ENSO SST on precipitation predictability over the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Leung, L. Ruby

    2015-06-01

    This study assesses the relative influence of soil moisture memory and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal rainfall over the contiguous United States. Using observed precipitation, the NINO3.4 index, and soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated by a land surface model for 61 years, analysis was performed using partial correlations to evaluate to what extent land surface and SST anomaly of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect seasonal precipitation over different regions and seasons. Results show that antecedent soil moisture is as important as concurrent ENSO condition in controlling rainfall anomalies over the U.S., but they generally dominate in different seasons with SST providing more predictability during winter while soil moisture, through its linkages to evapotranspiration and snow water, has larger influence in spring and early summer. The proposed methodology is applicable to climate model outputs to evaluate the intensity of land-atmosphere coupling and its relative importance.

  8. Response of the Adriatic Sea to the atmospheric anomaly in 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grbec

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Unusual weather conditions over the southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in 2003 significantly impacted the oceanographic properties of the Adriatic Sea. To document these changes, both in the atmosphere and the sea, anomalies from the normal climate were calculated. The winter 2003 was extremely cold, whereas the spring/summer period was extremely warm. The air temperature in June was more than 3 standard deviations above the average. On the other hand, precipitation and river runoff were extremely low between February and August. The response of the sea was remarkable, especially in surface salinity during spring and summer, with values at least one standard deviation above the average. Analysis of thermohaline properties in the middle Adriatic showed the importance of two phenomena responsible for the occurrence of exceptionally high salinity: (1 enhanced inflow of saline Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW in the Adriatic, and (2 extremely low precipitation and river runoff, accompanied with strong evaporation. Two large-scale atmospheric indices: NAOI (North Atlantic Oscillation Index and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index, although generally correlated to the Adriatic climate, failed to describe anomalies in 2003. The air pressure gradients used for the definition of both indices significantly decreased in 2003 due to the presence of the high pressure areas over most of Europe and the northern Atlantic, and were actually responsible for the observed anomalies above and in the Adriatic.

  9. Dyonic anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henningson, Mans; Johansson, Erik P.G.

    2005-01-01

    We consider the problem of coupling a dyonic p-brane in d=2p+4 space-time dimensions to a prescribed (p+2)-form field strength. This is particularly subtle when p is odd. For the case p=1, we explicitly construct a coupling functional, which is a sum of two terms: one which is linear in the prescribed field strength, and one which describes the coupling of the brane to its self-field and takes the form of a Wess-Zumino term depending only on the embedding of the brane world-volume into space-time. We then show that this functional is well-defined only modulo a certain anomaly, related to the Euler class of the normal bundle of the brane world-volume

  10. [Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

    2015-09-01

    Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

  11. NESDIS Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product is derived from multiple sensors/satellites. The Percentage of TPW normal (PCT), or TPW anomaly, shows the...

  12. The role of synoptic and intraseasonal anomalies on the life cycle of rainfall extremes over South America: non-summer conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, Fernando E.; Grimm, Alice M.

    2017-07-01

    Previous study showed that the interaction of synoptic disturbances with intraseasonal anomalies is important for heavy rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and the La Plata basin during the austral summer. Here, we conduct similar analysis to study the evolution of rainfall extremes during austral spring (SON), fall (MAM) and winter (JJA). A relatively homogeneous region over southeastern South America, whose limits change little from season to season, is heavily affected by extreme precipitation events, as indicated by the value of the 95th percentile of daily rainfall, higher during the spring season (16.94 mm day-1) and lower in winter (13.79 mm day-1). From 1979 to 2013, extreme rainfall events are more frequent in spring (131 events) and less frequent in fall (112 events). Similar to summertime extreme events, synoptic-scale waves continue to be the main drivers of extreme precipitation over the region. The interaction between these waves and intraseasonal anomalies during the development of rainfall extremes over southeastern South America is observed especially during neutral ENSO and La Niña conditions. Warm ENSO phases tend to favor more frequent extremes in all three seasons and extreme events during El Niños are associated with synoptic waves, with no significant interaction with intraseasonal anomalies.

  13. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-02-17

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide consise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: Distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; Natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s as well as selected National average prices; Residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; Crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and A 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree days by city.

  14. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  15. Chiral anomalies and differential geometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zumino, B.

    1983-10-01

    Some properties of chiral anomalies are described from a geometric point of view. Topics include chiral anomalies and differential forms, transformation properties of the anomalies, identification and use of the anomalies, and normalization of the anomalies. 22 references. (WHK)

  16. WINTER SAECULUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  17. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safety During Fire Cleanup Wildfires PSAs Related Links Winter Weather About Winter Weather Before a Storm Prepare Your Home Prepare Your Car Winter Weather Checklists During a Storm Indoor Safety During ...

  18. Southern Hemisphere circulation signals in connection with winter rainfall forecasting in central Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutlant, J.; Aceituno, P.

    1991-05-01

    The possibility of detecting easterly propagating low frequency signals in the Southern Hemispheric circulation is explored in connection with the assessment of a possible seasonal rainfall forecast in central Chile. The analysis has focused on the seasonal variability associated with the biennial component of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and on the one resulting from superimposed intraseasonal oscillations, in relation with winter precipitation and individual rainfall events, respectively. Based on a previous work, relating wet winters to frequent blocks to the SW of South America during warm events of the SO, time-longitude cross sections of a 5-day average blocking index (BI) calculated from ECMWF 200 hPa daily hemispheric analyses for the period 1980-1987 are presented. A general eastward displacement of western and central Pacific positive BI areas seems to characterize the developing phase of warm SO events and vice versa, while intraseasonal variability patterns appear to be related to single rainstorms, either when the positive BI phase of the wave amplifies while crossing the western Pacific or when it reaches the far southeastern Pacific, frequently with a double block structure. It is concluded that the behaviour of both sources of variability is consistent with previously described teleconnection patterns for ENSO events in the southern winter, and that a primary prospect for winter precipitation and for the occurrence of relatively large individual rainstorms in central Chile could be obtained following the filtered BI and 500 hPa height anomalies in both time scales during the fall season. (author). 28 refs, 12 figs

  19. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  20. Learning about Poland Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... these symptoms occur on one side of the body (unilateral). Also, it is important to note that Poland anomaly does not typically affect intelligence. Top of page What causes Poland anomaly? The ...

  1. Vascular Anomalies in Pediatrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Lisa S; Kulungowski, Ann M

    2015-08-01

    A standardized classification system allows improvements in diagnostic accuracy. Multidisciplinary vascular anomaly centers combine medical, surgical, radiologic, and pathologic expertise. This collaborative approach tailors treatment and management of vascular anomalies for affected individuals.

  2. Magnetic hyperfine anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buettgenbach, S.

    1984-01-01

    This study is concerned with the measurement and interpretation of magnetic hyperfine anomalies in electronic and muonic atoms, i.e. effects of the distribution of nuclear magnetization on the magnetic dipole hyperfine interaction. After a summary of the relevant theory and a review of experimental techniques, hyperfine anomaly results are discussed in terms of various nuclear models. The use of the anomaly for yielding information about the origin of magnetic hyperfine interactions is outlined. Experimental and theoretical hyperfine anomalies are tabulated. (Auth.)

  3. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick; Park, A Young

    2010-01-01

    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  4. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick [Soonchunhyang University, Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of); Park, A Young [Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-04-15

    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  5. Anomalies of nuclear criticality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, E.D.

    1979-06-01

    During the development of nuclear energy, a number of apparent anomalies have become evident in nuclear criticality. Some of these have appeared in the open literature and some have not. Yet, a naive extrapolation or application of existing data, without knowledge of the anomalies, could lead to potentially serious consequences. This report discusses several of these anomalies.

  6. Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Nino Modoki and El Nino events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng, Hengyi; Behera, Swadhin K. [Climate Variations Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [Climate Variations Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)]|[University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Sciences, Tokyo (Japan)

    2009-04-15

    Present work compares impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on anomalous climate in the Pacific rim during boreal winters of 1979-2005. El Nino Modoki (El Nino) is associated with tripole (dipole) patterns in anomalies of sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-level divergent wind in the tropical Pacific, which are related to multiple 'boomerangs' of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Pacific. Zonal and meridional extents of those 'boomerangs' reflect their independent influences, which are seen from lower latitudes in the west to higher latitudes in the east. In the central Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropics to higher latitudes during El Nino Modoki owing to displacement of the wet 'boomerang' arms more poleward toward east. Discontinuities at outer 'boomerang' arms manifest intense interactions between tropical and subtropical/extratropical systems. The Pacific/North American pattern and related climate anomalies in North America found in earlier studies are modified in very different ways by the two phenomena. The seesaw with the dry north and the wet south in the western USA is more likely to occur during El Nino Modoki, while much of the western USA is wet during El Nino. The moisture to the southwestern USA is transported from the northward shifted ITCZ during El Nino Modoki, while it is carried by the storms traveling along the southerly shifted polar front jet during El Nino. The East Asian winter monsoon related anticyclone is over the South China Sea during El Nino Modoki as compared to its position over the Philippine Sea during El Nino, causing opposite precipitation anomalies in the southern East Asia between the two phenomena. (orig.)

  7. Deuterium distribution regularities in precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feurdean, V.; Feurdean, Lucia

    1999-01-01

    Deuterium measurements from precipitations were initiated by dr. L. Blaga in Natural Isotopic Abundances Department of ITIM since 1971. Systematic measurements of deuterium content and quantities of precipitations were carried on after 1975. Deuterium measurements from precipitations evidenced the succession of minimum values corresponding to cold seasons and maximum values corresponding to warm seasons. Other minimum and maximum values having lower amplitude than those corresponding to seasons are recorded for each season, too. As a rule, minimum values recorded during the summer months are the consequence of the penetration of cold air masses and maximum values recorded during the winter months are the consequence of penetration of the warm air masses. For the northwestern part of Romania including the Cluj-Napoca area, the winter precipitations come prevalently from the northwestern direction (from Greenland and North of Atlantic Ocean). The maximum values of deuterium content recorded during winter months are due to the displacements of warm and humid air masses from southwestern Europe (Mediterranean Sea). During long-time, (over 22 years) the monthly mean values of deuterium concentrations from precipitations for each year show amplitude variation of the minimum and maximum values. These maximum and minimum values, respectively, are oscillatory with a variable period of a few years (from 2 to 6 years). The variation of the oscillation period suggests at least two causes having different and fixed periodicity. The determinations of deuterium concentration from precipitations reveal the existence of natural isotopic label process for all waters natural. This phenomenon is adequate for the use of deuterium as a natural tracer in hydrologic studies. The isotopic hydrology adds new information to the hydrologic data base. The correlation between isotopic data base for precipitations and meteorological information will provide a new method for long term weather

  8. Intraseasonal variability of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone during austral summer and winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaziello, Ana Carolina Nóbile; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Gandu, Adilson W.

    2016-09-01

    The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (A-ITCZ) exhibits variations on several time-scales and plays a crucial role in precipitation regimes of northern South America and western Africa. Here we investigate the variability of the A-ITCZ on intraseasonal time-scales during austral summer (November-March) and winter (May-September) based on a multivariate index that describes the main atmospheric features of the A-ITCZ and retains its variability on interannual, semiannual, and intraseasonal time-scales. This index is the time coefficient of the first combined empirical orthogonal function mode of anomalies (annual cycle removed) of precipitation, and zonal and meridional wind components at 850 hPa from the climate forecast system reanalysis (1979-2010). We examine associations between the intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ and the activity of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). We show that during austral summer intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ is associated with a Rossby wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. In austral winter this variability is associated with the propagation of a Rossby wave in the Southern Hemisphere consistent with the Pacific-South American pattern. Moreover, we show that intense A-ITCZ events on intraseasonal time-scales are more frequent during the phase of MJO characterized by convection over western Pacific and suppression over the Indian Ocean. These teleconnection patterns induce anomalies in the trade winds and upper level divergence over the equatorial Atlantic that modulate the intensity of the A-ITCZ.

  9. Prevalence of hematozoa infections among breeding and wintering Rusty Blackbirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. Barnard; Claudia Mettke-Hofmann; Steven M. Matsuoka

    2010-01-01

    The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has declined precipitously over the past several decades,and stressors on both the breeding and wintering grounds are suspected causes. Over 3 years, we collected blood samples from breeding birds in Alaska and Maine and from wintering birds in Mississippi and Arkansas to determine the prevalence of hematozoan infections at...

  10. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  11. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-13

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  12. TCA precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation of proteins is commonly used to concentrate protein samples or remove contaminants, including salts and detergents, prior to downstream applications such as SDS-PAGE or 2D-gels. TCA precipitation denatures the protein, so it should not be used if the protein must remain in its folded state (e.g., if you want to measure a biochemical activity of the protein). © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany (COPA-COGECA 2003). Predicting crop yields allows to economize the mitigation of risks of weather extremes. Economic approaches for quantifying agricultural impacts of natural hazards mainly rely on temperature and related concepts. For instance extreme heat over the growing season is considered as best predictor of corn yield (Auffhammer and Schlenker 2014). However, those measures are only able to provide a proxy for the available water content in the root zone that ultimately determines plant growth and eventually crop yield. The aim of this paper is to analyse whether soil moisture has a causal effect on crop yield that can be exploited in improving adaptation measures. For this purpose, reduced form fixed effect panel models are developed with yield as dependent variable for both winter wheat and silo maize crops. The explanatory variables used are soil moisture anomalies, precipitation and temperature. The latter two are included to estimate the current state of the water balance. On the contrary, soil moisture provides an integrated signal over several months. It is also the primary source of water supply for plant growth. For each crop a single model is estimated for every month within the growing period to study the variation of the effects over time. Yield data is available for Germany as a whole on the level of administrative districts from 1990 to 2010. Station data by the German Weather Service are obtained for precipitation and temperature and are aggregated to the same spatial units. Simulated soil moisture computed by the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) is transformed into Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which represents the monthly soil water quantile and hence accounts directly for the water content available to plants. The results

  14. Congenital optic nerve anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Begué, N; Saint-Gerons, M

    2016-12-01

    To update the current knowledge about congenital optic disc anomalies. A comprehensive literature search was performed in the major biomedical databases. Patients with these anomalies usually have poor vision in infancy. Refractive errors are common, and serous retinal detachment may develop in some of these anomalies. It is critically important to clinically differentiate between these congenital optic disc anomalies, as central nervous system malformations are common in some, whereas others may be associated with systemic anomalies. Congenital optic disc anomalies are a heterogeneous group of pathologies with characteristic fundus appearance and systemic associations. We should always try to make a correct diagnosis, in order to ask for specific tests, as well as to provide an adequate follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health ... Although there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect ...

  16. Winter maintenance performance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  17. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  18. Anomaly-free models for flavour anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, John; Fairbairn, Malcolm; Tunney, Patrick

    2018-03-01

    We explore the constraints imposed by the cancellation of triangle anomalies on models in which the flavour anomalies reported by LHCb and other experiments are due to an extra U(1)^' gauge boson Z^' . We assume universal and rational U(1)^' charges for the first two generations of left-handed quarks and of right-handed up-type quarks but allow different charges for their third-generation counterparts. If the right-handed charges vanish, cancellation of the triangle anomalies requires all the quark U(1)^' charges to vanish, if there are either no exotic fermions or there is only one Standard Model singlet dark matter (DM) fermion. There are non-trivial anomaly-free models with more than one such `dark' fermion, or with a single DM fermion if right-handed up-type quarks have non-zero U(1)^' charges. In some of the latter models the U(1)^' couplings of the first- and second-generation quarks all vanish, weakening the LHC Z^' constraint, and in some other models the DM particle has purely axial couplings, weakening the direct DM scattering constraint. We also consider models in which anomalies are cancelled via extra vector-like leptons, showing how the prospective LHC Z^' constraint may be weakened because the Z^' → μ ^+ μ ^- branching ratio is suppressed relative to other decay modes.

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis 90-Day Seasonal Forecast of Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) precipitation forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface precipitation anomalies. The ECCA uses...

  20. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

    1989-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  1. North Atlantic Oscillation and moisture transport towards the Iberian Peninsula during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordóñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of interannual variability in winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Recent works have identified the most important sources of moisture that supply the IP during different seasons of the year, including the nearby western Mediterranean and the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic corridor that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the IP, and the IP itself (Gimeno et al., 2010). However, although rainfall is directly related to the moisture supply, the relationship between the water vapor transported towards IP and the NAO phase remains unclear. In this work the moisture transport towards IP was analyzed using a Lagrangian diagnosis method, which relies on the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by evaluating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories. Here we have computed (for each day) the evolution of moisture of the particles bound for Iberia up to 10 days prior to their arrival. The analysis was constrained to the winter (DJF) season, responsible for the largest fraction of precipitation, for the 20 years of ECMWF Reanalyses ERA40 dataset from 1980 to 2000. The contribution of the NAO phase on the water budgets is examined using composites of the obtained (E - P) fields for the 5 most extreme positive and negative NAO years of the study period. Results confirm that the IP is dominated by positive (negative) E-P anomalies during positive (negative) NAO phase. Additionally an anomalous water vapor sink (source) region located approximately over the Gulf Stream is found during positive (negative) NAO phase. Gimeno L., Nieto R., Trigo R.M. , Vicente-Serrano S.M, Lopes-Moreno J.I., (2010) "Where does the Iberian Peninsula moisture come from? An answer based on a Lagrangian approach". J. Hydrometeorology, 11, 421-436 DOI: 10.1175/2009JHM1182.1.

  2. Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    , Minho, Tagus and Duero) is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins (Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir) the impact of ARs is reduced. In addition, meteorological large scale influence associated with ARs was also analyzed. The anomalies between the extended winter (ONDJFM) long term mean and the composite for the persistent ARs time steps were computed for the IVT and SLP fields. Negative SLP anomalies are found centered in Ireland with slight positive anomalies of SLP located over northern Africa. It was found that the ARs hitting the IP are strongly correlated with the EA pattern, while the influence of other patterns such as the NAO or SCAND is weak. Main results presented are currently in print (Ramos et al., 2015) Ramos et al (2014), A ranking of high-resolution daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi: 10.1002/asl2.507. Ramos et al. (2015), Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers. Journal Hydrometeorology, in press. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  3. The First Results of Monitoring the Formation and Destruction of the Ice Cover in Winter 2014–2015 on Ilmen Lake according to the Measurements of Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaev, V. Yu.; Panfilova, M. A.; Titchenko, Yu. A.; Meshkov, E. M.; Balandina, G. N.; Andreeva, Z. V.

    2017-12-01

    The launch of the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) opens up new opportunities for studying and monitoring the land and inland waters. It is the first time radar with a swath (±65°) covering regions with cold climate where waters are covered with ice and land with snow for prolonged periods of time has been used. It is also the first time that the remote sensing is carried out at small incidence angles (less than 19°) at two frequencies (13.6 and 35.5 GHz). The high spatial resolution (4-5 km) significantly increases the number of objects that can be studied using the new radar. Ilmen Lake is chosen as the first test object for the development of complex programs for processing and analyzing data obtained by the DPR. The problem of diagnostics of ice-cover formation and destruction according to DPR data has been considered. It is shown that the dependence of the radar backscatter cross section on the incidence angle for autumn ice is different from that of spring ice, and can be used for classification. A comparison with scattering on the water surface has shown that, at incidence angles exceeding 10°, it is possible to discern all three types of reflecting surfaces: open water, autumn ice, and spring ice, under the condition of making repeated measurements to avoid possible ambiguity caused by wind.

  4. Dental Anomalies: An Update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Jahanimoghadam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental anomalies are usual congenital malformation that can happen either as isolated findings or as a part of a syndrome. Developmental anomalies influencing the morphology exists in both deciduous and permanent dentition and shows different forms such as gemination, fusion, concrescence, dilaceration, dens evaginatus (DE, enamel pearls, taurodontism or peg-shaped laterals. All These anomalies have clinical significance concerning aesthetics, malocclusion and more necessary preparing of the development of dental decays and oral diseases. Through a search in PubMed, Google, Scopus and Medline, a total of eighty original research papers during 1928-2016 were found with the keywords such as dental anomaly, syndrome, tooth and hypodontia. One hundred review titles were identified, eighty reviews were retrieved that were finally included as being relevant and of sufficient quality. In this review, dental anomalies including gemination, fusion, concrescence, dilaceration, dens invaginatus, DE, taurodontism, enamel pearls, fluorosis, peg-shaped laterals, dentinal dysplasia, regional odontodysplasia and hypodontia are discussed. Diagnosing dental abnormality needs a thorough evaluation of the patient, involving a medical, dental, familial and clinical history. Clinical examination and radiographic evaluation and in some of the cases, specific laboratory tests are also needed. Developmental dental anomalies require careful examination and treatment planning. Where one anomaly is present, clinicians should suspect that other anomalies may also be present. Moreover, careful clinical and radiographical examination is required. Furthermore, more complex cases need multidisciplinary planning and treatment.

  5. Analyzing coastal precipitation using TRMM observations

    OpenAIRE

    R. H. Heiblum; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2011-01-01

    The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds, and surface friction increase in transition from sea to land can create persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

    Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the winter the Mediterranean sea is usually warmer than t...

  6. Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

    2011-10-15

    Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)

  7. Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

    2011-10-01

    Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

  8. Anomalies on orbifolds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkani-Hamed, Nima; Cohen, Andrew G.; Georgi, Howard

    2001-03-16

    We discuss the form of the chiral anomaly on an S1/Z2 orbifold with chiral boundary conditions. We find that the 4-divergence of the higher-dimensional current evaluated at a given point in the extra dimension is proportional to the probability of finding the chiral zero mode there. Nevertheless the anomaly, appropriately defined as the five dimensional divergence of the current, lives entirely on the orbifold fixed planes and is independent of the shape of the zero mode. Therefore long distance four dimensional anomaly cancellation ensures the consistency of the higher dimensional orbifold theory.

  9. Atmospheric forcing in the occurrence of precipitation extremes in Iberia: comparison between the eastern and western sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, J. A.; Mendes, A. R.

    2009-09-01

    reanalysis project. Although the study is conducted for all seasons, only the results for winter are presented here. In general, our results clearly support the previously stated hypotheses. In fact, there is a clear connection between precipitation deficits in western Iberia and the presence of an anomalously strong anticyclonic ridge over the Eastern North Atlantic, which presents a warm-core equivalent barotropic structure. However, in eastern Iberia, the latter dynamical structure is significantly weakened, particularly in Valencia, where the regional orography leads to a strong mitigation of the Atlantic influences and no clear connection between its precipitation extremes and large-scale anomalies is found. In this particular case, local/regional processes are largely dominant in triggering rainfall conditions.

  10. Theoretically Optimal Distributed Anomaly Detection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A novel general framework for distributed anomaly detection with theoretical performance guarantees is proposed. Our algorithmic approach combines existing anomaly...

  11. Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Arribas, Alberto; MacLachlan, Craig

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

  12. Anomaly Detection in Sequences

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We present a set of novel algorithms which we call sequenceMiner, that detect and characterize anomalies in large sets of high-dimensional symbol sequences that...

  13. Skyrmions and anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rho, M.

    1987-02-01

    The author summarizes the works presented at the meeting on skyrmions and anomalies. He divides the principal issues of this workshop into five categories: QCD effective lagrangians, chiral bags and the Cheshire cat principle, strangeness problem, phenomenology, mathematical structure

  14. Congenital laryngeal anomalies,

    OpenAIRE

    Rutter, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: It is essential for clinicians to understand issues relevant to the airway management of infants and to be cognizant of the fact that infants with congenital laryngeal anomalies are at particular risk for an unstable airway. Objectives: To familiarize clinicians with issues relevant to the airway management of infants and to present a succinct description of the diagnosis and management of an array of congenital laryngeal anomalies. Methods: Revision article, in which the ma...

  15. Fivebrane gravitational anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, Katrin; Becker, Melanie

    2000-01-01

    Freed, Harvey, Minasian and Moore (FHMM) have proposed a mechanism to cancel the gravitational anomaly of the M-theory fivebrane coming from diffeomorphisms acting on the normal bundle. This procedure is based on a modification of the conventional M-theory Chern-Simons term. We apply the FHMM mechanism in the ten-dimensional type IIA theory. We then analyze the relation to the anomaly cancellation mechanism for the type IIA fivebrane proposed by Witten

  16. The Holographic Weyl anomaly

    CERN Document Server

    Henningson, M; Henningson, Mans; Skenderis, Kostas

    1998-01-01

    We calculate the Weyl anomaly for conformal field theories that can be described via the adS/CFT correspondence. This entails regularizing the gravitational part of the corresponding supergravity action in a manner consistent with general covariance. Up to a constant, the anomaly only depends on the dimension d of the manifold on which the conformal field theory is defined. We present concrete expressions for the anomaly in the physically relevant cases d = 2, 4 and 6. In d = 2 we find for the central charge c = 3 l/ 2 G_N in agreement with considerations based on the asymptotic symmetry algebra of adS_3. In d = 4 the anomaly agrees precisely with that of the corresponding N = 4 superconformal SU(N) gauge theory. The result in d = 6 provides new information for the (0, 2) theory, since its Weyl anomaly has not been computed previously. The anomaly in this case grows as N^3, where N is the number of coincident M5 branes, and it vanishes for a Ricci-flat background.

  17. Warm and Dry Spells (WDS in Austral Winter over Central South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Satyamurty

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The horizontal and vertical structure of unusually warm and dry spells (WDS over the central parts of South America during the winter and post-winter months (JJAS are studied. During WDS the mean temperature and humidity anomalies over central Brazil are about +4.1°C and −13.2%, respectively. The mean duration of WDS is 11 days and their mean frequency is less than one per year during the months of JJAS. Apparently, WDS have no preference for the phase of ENSO. Widespread and persistent subsidence in the middle troposphere is observed in tropical Brazil during WDS, which renders the lower tropospheric air warm and dry. The negative anomalies of the specific humidity are observed to be associated with the subsidence regions. A strong, slow moving ridge in the eastern South Pacific and a low-pressure center in northern Argentina are important surface characteristics during the WDS. A more detailed investigation of two specific WDS events, a strong event (August–September 1999 and a moderate one (June 2002, shows a blocking-like situation in the 500-hPa geopotential and surface pressure fields in the Pacific. The South Atlantic subtropical high somewhat approaches the continent. Strong northerlies over the central and eastern parts of Brazil are also observed in the lower troposphere. During WDS the regional circulation acquires summertime characteristics, except for the absence of precipitation, and the circulation in the meridional plane is in the opposite sense from the Hadley circulation. A frontal system, supported by a 500-hPa trough, advances into central Brazil, causing the dissipation of the anomalous situation.

  18. Potential ocean–atmosphere preconditioning of late autumn Barents-Kara sea ice concentration anomaly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin P. King

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Many recent studies have revealed the importance of the climatic state in November on the seasonal climate of the subsequent winter. In particular, it has been shown that interannual variability of sea ice concentration (SIC over the Barents-Kara (BK seas in November is linked to winter atmospheric circulation anomaly that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Understanding the lead–lag processes involving the different components of the climate system from autumn to winter is therefore important. This note presents dynamical interpretation for the ice-ocean–atmosphere relationships that can affect the BK SIC anomaly in late autumn. It is found that cyclonic (anticyclonic wind anomaly over the Arctic in October, by Ekman drift, can be responsible for positive (negative SIC in the BK seas in November. The results also suggest that ocean heat transport via the Barents Sea Opening in September and October can contribute to BK SIC anomaly in November.

  19. Why rainfall response to El Niño over Maritime Continent is weaker and non-uniform in boreal winter than in boreal summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Leishan; Li, Tim

    2017-11-01

    Why rainfall response to El Niño is uniform and stronger over the Maritime Continent (MC) during El Niño developing summer and fall but is weaker and non-uniform during El Niño mature winter is investigated through the diagnosis of anomalous large-scale circulation patterns and a local moisture budget analysis. It is found that when anomalous Walker cells across the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean are strengthened toward El Niño mature winter, a low-level ascending motion anomaly starts to develop over western MC in northern fall due to topographic lifting (near Sumatra) and anomalous wind convergence (near west Kalimantan). Easterly anomalies, as a part of an anomalous anticyclone in South China Sea (SCS) that is developed during El Niño and a part of the south-easterly from Java Sea associated with anomalous Walker Circulation, bump into the mountain ridge of Sumatra and induce ascending motion anomalies near Sumatra. Meanwhile, the anomalous north-easterly in the southern flank of the anomalous anticyclone over SCS and south-easterly over Java Sea converge into west Kalimantan, leading to ascending motion there. The anomalous ascending motion tend to advect mean moisture upward to moisten lower troposphere in situ. This low-level moistening eventually sets up a convectively unstable stratification and induces a positive precipitation anomaly in the western MC. How the mechanism discussed here is relevant to previous hypotheses and how processes during El Niño might differ during La Niña are discussed.

  20. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  1. The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

    2017-09-01

    Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

  2. Link between the Barents Oscillation and recent boreal winter cooling over the Asian midlatitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Qi; Qiao, Fangli; Song, Zhenya; Song, Yajuan

    2018-01-01

    The link between boreal winter cooling over the midlatitudes of Asia and the Barents Oscillation (BO) since the late 1980s is discussed in this study, based on five datasets. Results indicate that there is a large-scale boreal winter cooling during 1990-2015 over the Asian midlatitudes, and that it is a part of the decadal oscillations of long-term surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. The SAT anomalies over the Asian midlatitudes are significantly correlated with the BO in boreal winter. When the BO is in its positive phase, anomalously high sea level pressure over the Barents region, with a clockwise wind anomaly, causes cold air from the high latitudes to move over the midlatitudes of Asia, resulting in anomalous cold conditions in that region. Therefore, the recent increasing trend of the BO has contributed to recent winter cooling over the Asian midlatitudes.

  3. Multi-scale quantitative precipitation forecasting using nonlinear and nonstationary teleconnection signals and artificial neural network models - paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed to have a significant effect on precipitation patterns throughout the United States. SST variations have been correlated with precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. This paper ...

  4. High-Resolution Monthly Precipitation Fields (1913–2015 over a Complex Mountain Area Centred on the Forni Valley (Central Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golzio Alessio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Mountain environments are extremely influenced by climate change but are also often affected by the lack of long and high-quality meteorological data, especially in glaciated areas, which limits the ability to investigate the acting processes at local scale. For this reason, we checked a method to reconstruct high-resolution spatial distribution and temporal evolution of precipitation. The study area is centred on the Forni Glacier area (Central Italian Alps, where an automatic weather station is present since 2005. We set up a model based on monthly homogenised precipitation series and we spatialised climatologies and anomalies on a 30-arc-second-resolution DEM, using Local Weighted Linear Regression (LWLR and Regression Kriging (RK of precipitation versus elevation, in order to test the most suitable approach for this complex terrain area. The comparison shows that LWLR has a better reconstruction ability for winter while RK slightly prevails during summer. The results of precipitation spatialisation were compared with station observations and with data collected at the weather station on Forni Glacier, which were not used to calibrate the model. A very good agreement between observed and modelled precipitation records was pointed out for most station sites. The agreement is lower, but encouraging, for Forni Glacier station data.

  5. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    2011-01-01

    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern...... hemisphere. Can climatic conditions alone explain the sizeable difference in reduction in building activity in the construction sector in European countries in the winter months, or are other factors such as technology, economic cycles and schemes for financial compensation influential as well? What...... possibilities exist for reducing seasonal variation in employment? In addition to a literature review related to winter construction, European and national employment and meteorological data were studied. Finally, ministerial acts, ministerial orders or other public policy documents related to winter...

  6. Deer Wintering Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  7. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  8. Quantified assessment of the meteorological variables facilitating the establishment of the Karakoram Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashir, Furrukh

    Lofty Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) mountain ranges centered in the Northern Pakistan are host to some of the world's largest glaciers outside the Polar Regions and are a source of water for drinking and irrigation to the millions of people living downstream. With the increase in the global temperatures, glaciers are reported as retreating globally. However, some of the glaciers in the Karakoram mountain ranges are reported as surging with positive mass balance, especially since the 1990s. This phenomenon is described as "The Karakoram Anomaly". Various efforts have been made to explain the state and fate of the HKH glaciers in the recent past. However, they are limited to quantification of the change in temperature, precipitation and river runoff, or through their impact on future climate projections. For the HKH region, temperature fluctuations have been out of the phase with hemispheric trends for past several centuries. Therefore, climate change in this region is not solely the temperature effect on melting as compared to other glaciated regions. To identify the reasons for the establishment of the Karakoram Anomaly, monthly mean climatic variables for last five decades, reported from meteorological observatories at the valley floors in HKH region, are analyzed. In addition to the climatic variables of temperature and precipitation, monthly mean synoptic observations reported by meteorological observatories in both morning and afternoon, along with monthly mean radiosonde data are used. From these data the role of different near-surface and upper atmospheric meteorological variables in maintaining the positive mass balance of the glaciers and the development of the Karakoram Anomaly can be explained. An overall warming in the region is observed. The trends in the summer temperatures, which were reported as decreasing a decade ago, are now found as increasing in updated time series. However, the overall gradient is still negative. The winter mean and

  9. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows that stocks' CAPM alphas are negatively related to CAPM betas if investors demand compensation for negative skewness. Thus, high (low) beta stocks appear to underperform (outperform). This apparent anomaly merely reflects compensation for residual coskewness ignored by the CAPM...

  10. Venus - Ishtar gravity anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjogren, W. L.; Bills, B. G.; Mottinger, N. A.

    1984-01-01

    The gravity anomaly associated with Ishtar Terra on Venus is characterized, comparing line-of-sight acceleration profiles derived by differentiating Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler residual profiles with an Airy-compensated topographic model. The results are presented in graphs and maps, confirming the preliminary findings of Phillips et al. (1979). The isostatic compensation depth is found to be 150 + or - 30 km.

  11. Bolivian Bouguer Anomaly Grid

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A 1 kilometer Bouguer anomaly grid for the country of Bolivia.Number of columns is 550 and number of rows is 900. The order of the data is from the lower left to the...

  12. Anomaly Busters II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1985-01-01

    The anomaly busters had struck on the first day of the Kyoto meeting with Yoji Totsuka of Tokyo speaking on baryon number nonjjonservation and 'related topics'. The unstable proton is a vital test of grand unified pictures pulling together the electroweak and quark/gluon forces in a single field theory

  13. The reactor antineutrino anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haser, Julia; Buck, Christian; Lindner, Manfred [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Major discoveries were made in the past few years in the field of neutrino flavour oscillation. Nuclear reactors produce a clean and intense flux of electron antineutrinos and are thus an essential neutrino source for the determination of oscillation parameters. Most currently the reactor antineutrino experiments Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO have accomplished to measure θ{sub 13}, the smallest of the three-flavour mixing angles. In the course of these experiments two anomalies emerged: (1) the reanalysis of the reactor predictions revealed a deficit in experimentally observed antineutrino flux, known as the ''reactor antineutrino anomaly''. (2) The high precision of the latest generation of neutrino experiments resolved a spectral shape distortion relative to the expected energy spectra. Both puzzles are yet to be solved and triggered new experimental as well as theoretical studies, with the search for light sterile neutrinos as most popular explanation for the flux anomaly. This talk outlines the two reactor antineutrino anomalies. Discussing possible explanations for their occurrence, recent and upcoming efforts to solve the reactor puzzles are highlighted.

  14. Echocardiography in Ebstein's anomaly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.J. Gussenhoven (Wilhelmina Johanna)

    1984-01-01

    textabstractIn this thesis the value of echocardiography is evaluated for the diagnosis of Ebstein's anomaly of the tricuspid valve. This congenital heart defect, first described in 1866 by Wilhelm Ebstein, is characterized by an apical displacement of the septal and inferior tricuspid valve

  15. Dealing with Ebstein's anomaly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geerdink, L.M.; Kapusta, L.

    2014-01-01

    Ebstein's anomaly is a complex congenital disorder of the tricuspid valve. Presentation in neonatal life and (early) childhood is common. Disease severity and clinical features vary widely and require a patient-tailored treatment. In this review, we describe the natural history of children and

  16. Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. de Groot (Wilma)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOne of the most important challenges in the field of asset pricing is to understand anomalies: empirical patterns in asset returns that cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. Currently, there is no consensus in the academic literature on the underlying causes of

  17. Algebra of anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talon, M.

    1987-01-01

    The algebraic set up for anomalies, a la Stora, is reviewed. Then a brief account is provided of the work of M. Dubois Violette, M. Talon, C. Viallet, in which the general algebraic solution to the consistency conditions is described. 34 references

  18. The Pioneer Anomaly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor T. Toth

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Radio-metric Doppler tracking data received from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft from heliocentric distances of 20-70 AU has consistently indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, blue-shifted frequency drift uniformly changing with a rate of ~6 × 10–9 Hz/s. Ultimately, the drift was interpreted as a constant sunward deceleration of each particular spacecraft at the level of aP = (8.74 ± 1.33 × 10–10 m/s2. This apparent violation of the Newton's gravitational inverse square law has become known as the Pioneer anomaly; the nature of this anomaly remains unexplained. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the physical properties of the anomaly and the conditions that led to its detection and characterization. We review various mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and discuss the current state of efforts to determine its nature. A comprehensive new investigation of the anomalous behavior of the two Pioneers has begun recently. The new efforts rely on the much-extended set of radio-metric Doppler data for both spacecraft in conjunction with the newly available complete record of their telemetry files and a large archive of original project documentation. As the new study is yet to report its findings, this review provides the necessary background for the new results to appear in the near future. In particular, we provide a significant amount of information on the design, operations and behavior of the two Pioneers during their entire missions, including descriptions of various data formats and techniques used for their navigation and radio-science data analysis. As most of this information was recovered relatively recently, it was not used in the previous studies of the Pioneer anomaly, but it is critical for the new investigation.

  19. Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

  20. Ferret Workflow Anomaly Detection System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Timothy J; Bryant, Stephany

    2005-01-01

    The Ferret workflow anomaly detection system project 2003-2004 has provided validation and anomaly detection in accredited workflows in secure knowledge management systems through the use of continuous, automated audits...

  1. Genetics Home Reference: Peters anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... navigation Home Page Search Home Health Conditions Genes Chromosomes & mtDNA Resources Help Me Understand Genetics Share: Email Facebook Twitter Home Health Conditions Peters anomaly Peters anomaly Printable PDF Open All Close All ...

  2. Interdecadal change in the summer SST-precipitation relationship around the late 1990s over the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiepeng; Wang, Xin; Zhou, Wen; Wen, Zhiping

    2017-11-01

    An interdecadal change in the air-sea interaction over the South China Sea (SCS) after the late 1990s has been identified using a local contemporaneous precipitation-sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation-SST tendency relationship. During 1979-1998, there is a negative precipitation-SST relationship over the SCS, with a larger magnitude over the northeastern SCS (NESCS) than over the southwestern SCS (SWSCS). The remote effect of warmer SST over the tropical Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in a strong anticyclone and suppressed rainfall over the SCS and western North Pacific. Due to greater mixed-layer depth over the SWSCS than over the NESCS, entrainment heat flux makes a larger contribution to a positive precipitation-SST tendency over the SWSCS than over the NESCS. The cloud-radiation effect has a dominant and positive contribution to the SST tendency over the NESCS, whereas it has a negative contribution to SST tendency over the SWSCS. In contrast, the precipitation-SST correlation becomes weakly negative over the NESCS and significantly positive over the SWSCS during 1999-2013. The CESM-CAM5 model demonstrates that cooler SST over the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) triggers a weak anticyclone, slightly suppressing rainfall over the SCS. The cloud-radiation effect still contributes mostly to a positive SST tendency over the NESCS. Warmer SST over the SWSCS induces an increase in surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence and causes enhanced rainfall. That offsets the remote effect of TCEP SST and results in a negative precipitation-SST tendency with negative cloud-radiation feedback. The interdecadal change in remote forcing to SCS rainfall around the late 1990s is related to the evolution of TCEP SST anomalies from the preceding winter to summer, which is possibly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  3. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  4. Penile Anomalies in Adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Wood

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the impact and outcomes of both treatment and underlying condition of penile anomalies in adolescent males. Major congenital anomalies (such as exstrophy/epispadias are discussed, including the psychological outcomes, common problems (such as corporal asymmetry, chordee, and scarring in this group, and surgical assessment for potential surgical candidates. The emergence of new surgical techniques continues to improve outcomes and potentially raises patient expectations. The importance of balanced discussion in conditions such as micropenis, including multidisciplinary support for patients, is important in order to achieve appropriate treatment decisions. Topical treatments may be of value, but in extreme cases, phalloplasty is a valuable option for patients to consider. In buried penis, the importance of careful assessment and, for the majority, a delay in surgery until puberty has completed is emphasised. In hypospadias patients, the variety of surgical procedures has complicated assessment of outcomes. It appears that true surgical success may be difficult to measure as many men who have had earlier operations are not reassessed in either puberty or adult life. There is also a brief discussion of acquired penile anomalies, including causation and treatment of lymphoedema, penile fracture/trauma, and priapism.

  5. Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    More frequent western atmospheric circulation over Europe results in increased precipitation in winter, and could result in increasing river discharges. We made a quantitative assessment of the impact of variation in atmospheric circulation, defined by the frequency of western circulation in the

  6. Changes in Tropical Precipitation at the Mid-Holocene: Role of the Oceanic Heat Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Battisti, D. S.; Donohoe, A.

    2015-12-01

    There is ample geological and geochemical evidence that precipitation in the tropics is largely different from today at the mid-Holocene, an era roughly 6,000 years ago when the Northern Hemisphere summer (winter) insolation was stronger (weaker) than today. These insolation differences are caused mainly by the precession of the earth's rotational axis, or called "precessional forcing". Using the mid-Holocene experiments of PMIP3, we studied changes in the zonal mean tropical precipitation, and its associated change in cross-equatorial energy transport. A northward movement of the zonal mean precipitation in the mid-Holocene is seen in 10 out of 13 PMIP3 models, with a correspondingly anomalous southward atmospheric heat transport across the equator. The slope is 3.0º per PW, close to the estimate given by Donohoe et al. (2013). The changes in cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport are dictated by changes in the hemispheric asymmetry of heating from the surface, which in turn are associated with changes in the cross-equatorial oceanic heat transport: an anomalous northward oceanic heat transport at the equator is seen in all of the PMIP3 models. Analysis on this anomalous oceanic heat transport reveals that changes in the wind-driven gyre in the Pacific Ocean are primarily responsible for the changes in cross-equatorial ocean heat transport. Specifically, stronger easterly anomalies north of the equator in the western Pacific drives an anomalous northward mass transport, and therefore accomplishes an anomalous northward heat transport across the equator by acting on the asymmetric mean-state zonal temperature. The wind anomalies responsible for this anomalous ocean heat transport are seen in every PMIP3 model, as well as an ECHAM4-slab ocean model, indicating that it is atmospherically driven and independent of the changes in ocean heat transport. It also explains the consistency of ocean heat transport change, and eventually the relative consistency of zonal

  7. Atmospheric Methane Growth Anomalies, 2007 - Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Fisher, R. E.; Nisbet, E. G.; Lanoiselle, M.; France, J.

    2012-12-01

    Several marked growth anomalies in atmospheric methane have occurred since 2007. In particular there has been sustained growth in methane in the Southern Hemisphere. This southern growth anomaly is among the larger excursions in the global methane record so far occurring in the 21st century, yet in contrast to Arctic emission, it has had little attention. The increase in methane began in 2007 and continued through early-2012. In the zonal average from the Equator to 30°S, annual increases reached 7.9 ppb/yr in 2007, remained at 7.0 ppb/yr in 2008, fell to around 2.5 ppb/yr in 2009, then increased to 7.9 ppb/yr in 2010. To consider one specific site, recent data from Ascension Island (which samples South Atlantic air almost exclusively) suggests growth of ~11 ppb/yr from July 2010 to July 2011 (winter to winter) falling to 8 ppb/yr over Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 (summer to summer). Isotopic data for 2011 show 13C enrichments and depletions that may suggest inputs from tropical / subtropical fire and wetland sources, respectively. Despite the size of the southern anomaly, there has been virtually no discussion of its causes. Several possibilities exist: some or all may have occurred: 1) that methane emission from southern wetland (late wet season) and fire (dry season) sources increased sharply during this period; 2) that the southern OH methane sink has decreased; 3) that changes in atmospheric circulation patterns have increased inter-hemispheric transport. It is possible that a major factor was high La Nina rainfall in key areas draining into wetlands in southern tropical Africa and Latin America. Tropical methane sources emit roughly 200 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere, nearly two-fifths of the global budget. Thus changes in tropical sources, if sustained on this scale, can have global significance. However the observational network generally is so sparse in the tropics that identifying causes of methane growth events is more akin to guesswork than evidence

  8. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Precipitation in Guizhou Based on TRMM 3B42 Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Cao, Guangjie; Li, Wei; Zhao, Xuemei

    2017-08-01

    Precipitation is an important part of the earth’s climate system. This article makes full use of the advantages of remote sensing images. In this paper, the TRMM 3B42 satellite precipitation from 1998 to 2013 is selected as the data source and Guizhou Province as the research area. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province are studied by linear trend estimation, linear regression analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis. The conclusion as below: Precipitation shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest in Guizhou Province. From the seasonal scale, Precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer and the least precipitation in winter. Over the past 16 years, precipitation in Guizhou Province has shown a fluctuating change. Summer precipitation trend is more obvious. And winter precipitation is not obvious.

  9. Titan's Emergence from Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  10. Spatial dependences among precipitation maxima over Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vannitsem

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available For a wide range of applications in hydrology, the probability distribution of precipitation maxima represents a fundamental quantity to build dykes, propose flood planning policies, or more generally, to mitigate the impact of precipitation extremes. Classical Extreme Value Theory (EVT has been applied in this context by usually assuming that precipitation maxima can be considered as Independent and Identically Distributed (IID events, which approximately follow a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV at each recording site. In practice, weather stations records can not be considered as independent in space.

    Assessing the spatial dependences among precipitation maxima provided by two Belgium measurement networks is the main goal of this work. The pairwise dependences are estimated by a variogram of order one, also called madogram, that is specially tailored to be in compliance with spatial EVT and to capture EVT bivariate structures. Our analysis of Belgium precipitation maxima indicates that the degree of dependence varies greatly according to three factors: the distance between two stations, the season (summer or winter and the precipitation accumulation duration (hourly, daily, monthly, etc.. Increasing the duration (from one hour to 20 days strengthens the spatial dependence. The full independence is reached after about 50 km (100 km for summer (winter for a duration of one hour, while for long durations only after a few hundred kilometers. In addition this dependence is always larger in winter than in summer whatever is the duration. An explanation of these properties in terms of the dynamical processes dominating during the two seasons is advanced.

  11. Nuclear Winter: The implications for civil defense

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1987-01-01

    ''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to hypothesized cooling in the northern hemisphere following a nuclear war due to injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the original paper in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. The widespread use of 3-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling; 15 to 25 0 C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought are likely to be direct threats to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures; The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and could present problems to third parties without food reserves; and Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor unexpected threat from nuclear war to the US and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the US due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year. 6 refs

  12. Nuclear Winter: Implications for civil defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1988-05-01

    ''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to the cooling hypothesized to occur in the Northern Hemisphere following a nuclear war as the result of the injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the paper was published in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. Three-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling---15 to 25/degree/C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought is likely to be a direct threat to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures. The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and this could present problems to third parties who are without food reserves. Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor an unexpected threat from nuclear war to the United States and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the United States due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year.

  13. Hyades CN anomaly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J.A.; Twarog, B.A.

    1983-05-01

    Recent uvby photometric work indicating possible CN variation among main-sequence stars in the Hyades is tested. Comparison of Reticon spectra of normal stars of similar temperature to five anomalous CN candidates in the Hyades demonstrates that there is no significant difference between the spectra of the program and comparison stars for four of the anomalous CN candidates in the wavelength region of CN 4216. The observed spectral discrepancy for the fifth program star appears to be the result of an incorrect temperature index as compared to previous observations of the same star. The source of the photometric anomaly remains unexplained.

  14. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  15. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  16. Pregnancy outcome and Ebstein's anomaly.

    OpenAIRE

    Donnelly, J E; Brown, J M; Radford, D J

    1991-01-01

    BACKGROUND--Ebstein's anomaly is an uncommon congenital cardiac abnormality that may be associated with cyanosis and arrhythmias. For those female patients with the anomaly who survive to adult life there is little information available about pregnancy, maternal complications, and fetal outcome. This study was designed to address this issue so that these patients can receive appropriate advice and management. METHODS AND RESULTS--Forty two pregnancies in 12 women with Ebstein's anomaly were s...

  17. Anomalies in Economics and Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher L. Gilbert

    2010-01-01

    The term “anomaly” played a crucial role in Thomas Kuhn’s characterization of scientific progress. For Kuhn, an anomaly is a puzzle which challenges an accepted paradigm. Puzzles only achieve anomalous status once an alternative paradigm becomes available which allows explanation of the puzzle. Anomalies were introduced into the finance literature by Michael Jensen but more as resolvable puzzles than Kuhnian anomalies. They entered economics via Richard Thaler who saw behavioural economics as...

  18. Congenital Anomalies among Live Births

    OpenAIRE

    Vivian Rosa Vázquez Martínez; Cristobal Jorge Torres González; Alina Luisa Díaz Dueñas; Grisel Torres Vázquez; Dariel Diaz Díaz; Rafael de la Rosa López

    2014-01-01

    Background: congenital anomalies contribute significantly to mortality during early stages of life; they are the leading cause of infant death in developed countries.Objective: to determine the characteristics of congenital anomalies among live births. Methods: a descriptive study was conducted in the province of Cienfuegos in 2012. Thirty-seven women who had live-born neonates with congenital anomalies were studied. The variables analyzed were: parental age, skin color, order of birth, famil...

  19. Winter is losing its cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.

    2017-12-01

    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  20. Synoptic Disturbances Found in Precipitable Water Fields North of Equatorial Africa

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patla, Jason

    1999-01-01

    The origin and structure of tropical synoptic scale precipitable water (PW) anomalies estimated from TOVS satellite observations are analyzed as they propagate eastward across northern Africa during MAM 1988...

  1. Coastal precipitation formation and discharge based on TRMM observations

    OpenAIRE

    R. H. Heiblum; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2011-01-01

    The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds creates persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

    Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterrenean. During the winter the Mediterrenean sea is usually warmer than the adjacent land, resulting in frequent occurence of land breeze ...

  2. Influence of Subtropical Jetstream on Arabian Gulf Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandeep, S.; Pauluis, O.; Ravindran, A. M.; TP, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Arabian Gulf and surrounding regions are predominantly arid. However, this region hosts a large population due to the intense economic activity that is centered on the exploration of natural resources in and around the Arabian Gulf. Thus, few precipitation events that occur during boreal winter are important for society and ecology of this region. The mechanisms of winter precipitation over the Gulf are not well understood, partly due to a lack of long term meteorological observation. Here we explore the dynamics of Arabian Gulf winter precipitation events using available observations and a high resolution atmospheric model simulation. Our analyses show that the northern Gulf receives about six times more precipitation than the southern Gulf. Often, the southern Gulf precipitation forms as a result of downstream development of northern Gulf disturbance. The southward movement of northern Gulf disturbances is influenced by the location of subtropical jet. The probability of a northern Gulf precipitating weather system to move south is higher when the subtropical jet is located equatorward of 30°N. The equatorward position of jet favors the penetration of mid-latitude weather systems over the Arabian Peninsula, which in turn pushes the Arabian anticyclone eastward and triggers moisture transport from the Arabian Sea that is essential for southern Gulf precipitation events.

  3. [Developmental venous anomaly (DVA)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, A; Hagen, T; Ahlhelm, F; Viera, J; Reith, W; Schulte-Altedorneburg, G

    2007-10-01

    As congenital anatomic variants of venous drainage, developmental venous anomalies (DVA) represent up to 60% of all cerebral vascular malformations. The prior term "venous angioma" is a misnomer implicating an abnormal vascular structure with an increased bleeding risk. They are often found incidentally and are hardly ever symptomatic. Their morphologic characteristics are dilated vessels in the white matter, which converge on a greater collector vein, forming the typical caput medusae. They drain into the superficial or deep venous system. The frequent association with other, potentially bleeding-prone vascular malformations is clinically relevant, in particular cavernous angioma, which might require therapeutic action. Therefore, coincident vascular lesions need to be actively sought by appropriate additional imaging techniques.

  4. Water radon anomaly fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, H.

    1980-01-01

    A striking aspect of water radon levels in relation to earthquakes is that before the Tangshan quake there was a remarkable synchronicity of behavior of many wells within 200 km of Tangshan. However, for many wells anomalous values persisted after the earthquake, particularly outside the immediate region of the quake. It is clear that radon may be produced by various processes; some candidates are pressure, shear, vibration, temperature and pressure, mixing of water-bearing strata, breakdown of mineral crystal structure, and the like, although it is not clear which of these are primary. It seems that a possible explanation of the persistence of the anomaly in the case of Tangshan may be that the earthquake released strain in the vicinity of Tangshan but increased it further along the geological structures involved, thus producing a continued radon buildup.

  5. Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals difficult to be detected at a local scale as it could cause large uncertainties when using linear correlation analysis only. This paper explores the relationship between global SST and terrestrial precipitation with respect to long-term non-stationary teleconnection signals during 1981-2010 over three regions in North America and one in Central America. Empirical mode decomposition as well as wavelet analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic trend and the dominant oscillation of the SST and precipitation time series in sequence. After finding possible associations between the dominant oscillation of seasonal precipitation and global SST through lagged correlation analysis, the statistically significant SST regions are extracted based on the correlation coefficient. With these characterized associations, individual contribution of these SST forcing regions linked to the related precipitation responses are further quantified through nonlinear modeling with the aid of extreme learning machine. Results indicate that the non-leading SST regions also contribute a salient portion to the terrestrial precipitation variability compared to some known leading SST regions. In some cases, these

  6. Axial anomaly at finite temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaturvedi, S.; Gupte, Neelima; Srinivasan, V.

    1985-01-01

    The Jackiw-Bardeen-Adler anomaly for QED 4 and QED 2 are calculated at finite temperature. It is found that the anomaly is independent of temperature. Ishikawa's method [1984, Phys. Rev. Lett. vol. 53 1615] for calculating the quantised Hall effect is extended to finite temperature. (author)

  7. Anomaly Structure of Regularized Supergravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butter, Daniel; Gaillard, Mary K.

    2015-01-01

    On-shell Pauli-Villars regularization of the one-loop divergences of supergravity theories is used to study the anomaly structure of supergravity and the cancellation of field theory anomalies under a U (1 ) gauge transformation and under the T -duality group of modular transformations in effective supergravity theories with three Kähler moduli Ti obtained from orbifold compactification of the weakly coupled heterotic string. This procedure requires constraints on the chiral matter representations of the gauge group that are consistent with known results from orbifold compactifications. Pauli-Villars (PV) regulator fields allow for the cancellation of all quadratic and logarithmic divergences, as well as most linear divergences. If all linear divergences were canceled, the theory would be anomaly free, with noninvariance of the action arising only from Pauli-Villars masses. However there are linear divergences associated with nonrenormalizable gravitino/gaugino interactions that cannot be canceled by PV fields. The resulting chiral anomaly forms a supermultiplet with the corresponding conformal anomaly, provided the ultraviolet cutoff has the appropriate field dependence, in which case total derivative terms, such as Gauss-Bonnet, do not drop out from the effective action. The anomalies can be partially canceled by the four-dimensional version of the Green-Schwarz mechanism, but additional counterterms, and/or a more elaborate set of Pauli-Villars fields and couplings, are needed to cancel the full anomaly, including D -term contributions to the conformal anomaly that are nonlinear in the parameters of the anomalous transformations.

  8. CRANIOVERTEBRAL JUNCTION ANOMALIES SEEN AT ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hi-tech

    2000-03-03

    Mar 3, 2000 ... anomalies that give rise to symptoms in this area are basilar impression, occipitalisation of the atlas, odontoid process abnormalities and atlanto-axial dislocation. Neuromeningeal anomalies in this region include Arnold-. Chiari malformation, syringomyelia and basal arachnoiditis. The clinical presentation ...

  9. What is a Timing Anomaly?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cassez, Franck; Hansen, Rene Rydhof; Olesen, Mads Chr.

    2012-01-01

    difficult. We examine previous definitions of timing anomalies, and identify examples where they do not align with common observations. We then provide a definition for consistently slower hardware traces that can be used to define timing anomalies and aligns with common observations....

  10. Early drought detection by spectral analysis of satellite time series of precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hoek, Mattijn; Jia, Li; Zhou, J.; Zheng, Chaolei; Menenti, M.

    2016-01-01

    The time lag between anomalies in precipitation and vegetation activity plays a critical role in early drought detection as agricultural droughts are caused by precipitation shortages. The aim of this study is to explore a new approach to estimate the time lag between a forcing (precipitation)

  11. A substorm in midnight auroral precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Vorobjev

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available DMSP F7 spacecraft observations for the whole of 1986 were used to construct the empirical model of the midnight auroral precipitation during a substorm. The model includes the dynamics of different auroral precipitation boundaries and simultaneous changes in average electron precipitation energy and energy flux in different precipitation regions during all substorm phases, as well as the IMF and solar wind plasma signatures during a substorm. The analysis of the model shows a few important features of precipitation. (1 During the magnetic quietness and just before the beginning of the substorm expansive phase the latitudinal width of the auroral precipitation in the nightside sector is about 5 – 6° CGL, while that of the auroral oval is about 2 – 3° CGL during such periods. (2 For about 5 min before the substorm onset a decrease in the average precipitating electron energy in the equatorward part of auroral zone was observed simultaneously, with an increase in both the average electron energy and energy flux of electron precipitation in the poleward part of the auroral zone. (3 The isotropy boundary position in the beginning of the substorm expansive phase coincides well with the inner edge of the central plasma sheet. The analysis of interplanetary medium parameters shows that, on average, during the substorm development, the solar wind dynamic pressure was about 1.5 times that of the magnetic quietness period. Substorms occurred predominantly during the southward IMF orientation, suggesting that substorm onset often was not associated with the northern turn or decrease in the southward interplanetary Bz . The Northern Hemisphere’s substorms occurred generally during the positive interplanetary By in winter, and they were observed when the interplanetary By was negative in summer.Key words. Ionosphere (auroral ionosphere; particle precipitation – Magnetospheric physics (storm and substorm; magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction

  12. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio, Maria; Ambrizzi, Tercio; da Rocha, Rosmeri

    2015-04-01

    coupled and uncoupled models capture the observed signal of the ENSO and MJO oscillations, although with reversed phase in some cases. The austral summer and winter composites of interannual and intraseasonal anomalies showed for wet and dry extreme events the same spatial distribution in models and reanalyses. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Amazon. In the Intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation. Note that there are differences between simulated and observed IS anomalies indicating that the models have problems to correctly represent the intensity of low frequency phenomena in this scale. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high resolution, mainly in the oceanic component, which contributes to the better solution of the small scale vortices in the ocean. This implies in improvements in the forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) and as consequence in the ability of atmosphere to respond to this feature.

  13. Imaging riometer observation in South Atlantic Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makita, Kazuo; Hoshino, Mituo; Kato, Yasuo; Masanori, Nishino; Schuch, Nelson Jorge; Foppiano, Alberto J.; Ovalle, Ellias; Tanaka, Yoshi; Monreal, Ricardo

    The total geomagnetic field intensity is especially weak around the southern part of Latin America. This region is called South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). We named this singularity region as "Geomagnetic Hole". High energetic particles larger than 100keV are precipitating into Geomagnetic Hole from Radiation belt. Since the intensity of Geomagnetic Hole is sharply decreasing now, the quantity of particle precipitation in this region will become more large near future. In order to examine Geomagnetic Hole phenomena, imaging riometer, photometer and other instruments are installed at INPE southern space observatory (SSO) and started observation since 1997. We also installed similar instruments and continue the observation at Concepcion / Punta Arenas in Chile and Kakioka in Japan. We study Cosmic Noise Absorption (CNA) obtained by imaging riometer and their relationships to particle data by GOES Satellite. From our analysis results, typical CNA events are observed in associated with big geomagnetic storm period at SSO and GOES particle date shows sharp decrease of energetic particle in this time. It suggests that radiation belt particles are precipitating to Geomagnetic Hole during ge-omagnetic storm period. Sometimes, CNA events are also observed during big substorm period and during the X-ray flare event. We also examined Punta Arenas, Concepcion and Kakioka imaging riometer data during geomagnetic storm time. However, typical CNA corresponding to SSO event is not found in our analysis. Our preliminary result suggests that particle precip-itation region is confined in a limited area around SSO, Brazil. On the other hands, Traveling Ionosphere Disturbance (TID) events are also observed at Concepcion and Kakioka as well as SSO by imaging riometer. Generally, number density of ionosphere electron increases and electron density disturbance with stripe-like structures are traveling during TID event. From imaging riometer observation, similar stripe-like CNA structure are

  14. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.

    1984-12-01

    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  15. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino

    1986-01-01

    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  16. Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

  17. Measurements of additional X-ray flux in South Atlantic magnetic anomaly region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, I.M.

    1968-01-01

    The purpose of this study is the calculation of the additional X-ray flux (20 - 150 KeV), produced by electron precipitation in the South Atlantic anomaly region. The kind of detector and the technique employed in the observations of this flux, utilizing stratospheric balloons as a means of transport of the payload across the anomaly region, are described. The results of two balloon launchins in Sao Jose dos Campos in July 1968, with the expected flux, are compared. (author) [pt

  18. Coronary Artery Anomalies in Animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scansen, Brian A

    2017-04-12

    Coronary artery anomalies represent a disease spectrum from incidental to life-threatening. Anomalies of coronary artery origin and course are well-recognized in human medicine, but have received limited attention in veterinary medicine. Coronary artery anomalies are best described in the dog, hamster, and cow though reports also exist in the horse and pig. The most well-known anomaly in veterinary medicine is anomalous coronary artery origin with a prepulmonary course in dogs, which limits treatment of pulmonary valve stenosis. A categorization scheme for coronary artery anomalies in animals is suggested, dividing these anomalies into those of major or minor clinical significance. A review of coronary artery development, anatomy, and reported anomalies in domesticated species is provided and four novel canine examples of anomalous coronary artery origin are described: an English bulldog with single left coronary ostium and a retroaortic right coronary artery; an English bulldog with single right coronary ostium and transseptal left coronary artery; an English bulldog with single right coronary ostium and absent left coronary artery with a prepulmonary paraconal interventricular branch and an interarterial circumflex branch; and a mixed-breed dog with tetralogy of Fallot and anomalous origin of all coronary branches from the brachiocephalic trunk. Coronary arterial fistulae are also described including a coronary cameral fistula in a llama cria and an English bulldog with coronary artery aneurysm and anomalous shunting vessels from the right coronary artery to the pulmonary trunk. These examples are provided with the intent to raise awareness and improve understanding of such defects.

  19. Reliability of CHAMP Anomaly Continuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    vonFrese, Ralph R. B.; Kim, Hyung Rae; Taylor, Patrick T.; Asgharzadeh, Mohammad F.

    2003-01-01

    CHAMP is recording state-of-the-art magnetic and gravity field observations at altitudes ranging over roughly 300 - 550 km. However, anomaly continuation is severely limited by the non-uniqueness of the process and satellite anomaly errors. Indeed, our numerical anomaly simulations from satellite to airborne altitudes show that effective downward continuations of the CHAMP data are restricted to within approximately 50 km of the observation altitudes while upward continuations can be effective over a somewhat larger altitude range. The great unreliability of downward continuation requires that the satellite geopotential observations must be analyzed at satellite altitudes if the anomaly details are to be exploited most fully. Given current anomaly error levels, joint inversion of satellite and near- surface anomalies is the best approach for implementing satellite geopotential observations for subsurface studies. We demonstrate the power of this approach using a crustal model constrained by joint inversions of near-surface and satellite magnetic and gravity observations for Maude Rise, Antarctica, in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Our modeling suggests that the dominant satellite altitude magnetic anomalies are produced by crustal thickness variations and remanent magnetization of the normal polarity Cretaceous Quiet Zone.

  20. Daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida LR

    2014-05-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the extended winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months can be linked to Mediterranean low pressure systems. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and making use of data from relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented here based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily gridded precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2008, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands, and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal, with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. Through this objective method for ranking daily precipitation events the magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point and taking into account the daily precipitation normalised departure from climatology. Different precipitation rankings are presented considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are the water vapour (WV) core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. They are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. They are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV

  1. Mesoscale process-induced variation of the West India coastal current during the winter monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jineesh, V.K.; Muraleedharan, K.R.; Lix, J.K.; Revichandran, C.; HareeshKumar, P.V.; NaveenKumar, K.R.

    Analysis of sea level anomaly from the merged altimeter data reveals the existence of a large anticyclonic eddy in the southeastern Arabian Sea during the winter monsoon The eddy moves westward with an average speed of ~15 km day1 corresponding...

  2. Measurements for winter road maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Riehm, Mats

    2012-01-01

    Winter road maintenance activities are crucial for maintaining the accessibility and traffic safety of the road network at northerly latitudes during winter. Common winter road maintenance activities include snow ploughing and the use of anti-icing agents (e.g. road salt, NaCl). Since the local weather is decisive in creating an increased risk of slippery conditions, understanding the link between local weather and conditions at the road surface is critically important. Sensors are commonly i...

  3. Gravitational anomaly and transport phenomena.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsteiner, Karl; Megías, Eugenio; Pena-Benitez, Francisco

    2011-07-08

    Quantum anomalies give rise to new transport phenomena. In particular, a magnetic field can induce an anomalous current via the chiral magnetic effect and a vortex in the relativistic fluid can also induce a current via the chiral vortical effect. The related transport coefficients can be calculated via Kubo formulas. We evaluate the Kubo formula for the anomalous vortical conductivity at weak coupling and show that it receives contributions proportional to the gravitational anomaly coefficient. The gravitational anomaly gives rise to an anomalous vortical effect even for an uncharged fluid.

  4. Quantum topology and global anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Baadhio, R A

    1996-01-01

    Anomalies are ubiquitous features in quantum field theories. They can ruin the consistency of such theories and put significant restrictions on their viability, especially in dimensions higher than four. Global gauge and gravitational anomalies are to date, one of the scant powerful and probing tools available to physicists in the pursuit of uniqueness.This monograph is one of the very few that specializes in the study of global anomalies in quantum field theories. A discussion of various issues associated to three dimensional physics - the Chern-Simons-Witten theories - widen the scope of thi

  5. Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

  6. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-29

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  7. Stamena winter wheat variety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mišić Todor

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Stamena is a winter wheat variety developed at the Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops in Novi Sad, Yugoslavia. It was released by the Federal Commission for varietals Approval in 1999. Stamena was developed by crossing genetically divergent and highly productive parents Lasta and Rodna (Breeders: T. Mišić. N. Mladenov, Z. Jerković and R. Jevtić. Spike is white, smooth, awn less, medium compact with 18-21 spike lets. The grain is vitreous and dark red (Triticum aestivum L. ssp. vulgar e var. lutescens. Stamena is a medium early variety, 1 day earlier than Partizanka and 3 days earlier than Jugoslavija (Table 4. It has excellent resistance to winterkilling, as in very winter hardy Partizanka. The average stem height is 78 cm, with a good resistance to lodging. Stamena has field resistance to leaf rust (Pucce, recondita tritict, horizontal resistance, which is the type of resistance that modern wheat breeding is interested in. The resistance to stem rust (Pucce, graminis tritict is good and to powdery mildew (Erysiphegraminis tritici very good. The 1000 grain mass is about 32 g and volume grain mass 81.3 kg/hi. (Table 2. Stamena is classified in the subgroup A-l. It has excellent milling and baking quality and it belong to the 1st technological group (quality enhancer. The quantity of dry gluten is about 9%. The variety Stamena is a very productive, with the genetic potential for grain above 11 t/ha suitable for growing on fertile and less fertile soils. It has started to be grown commercially in 2000.

  8. Obstetric consequences of uterovaginal anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rock, J.A.; Schlaff, W.D.

    1985-01-01

    This review discusses the diagnosis and classification of utero-vaginal anomalies as well as obstetric considerations in their management. Diagnosis is usually made by hysterosalpingography antepartum. Ultrasonography is also recommended. 40 references, 10 figures, 9 tables

  9. Dimensional reduction in anomaly mediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyda, Ed; Murayama, Hitoshi; Pierce, Aaron

    2002-04-01

    We offer a guide to dimensional reduction in theories with anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking. Evanescent operators proportional to ɛ arise in the bare Lagrangian when it is reduced from d=4 to d=4-2ɛ dimensions. In the course of a detailed diagrammatic calculation, we show that inclusion of these operators is crucial. The evanescent operators conspire to drive the supersymmetry-breaking parameters along anomaly-mediation trajectories across heavy particle thresholds, guaranteeing the ultraviolet insensitivity.

  10. Gravitational anomaly and transport phenomena

    OpenAIRE

    Landsteiner, Karl

    2011-01-01

    Quantum anomalies give rise to new transport phenomena. In particular, a magnetic field can induce an anomalous current via the chiral magnetic effect and a vortex in the relativistic fluid can also induce a current via the chiral vortical effect. The related transport coefficients can be calculated via Kubo formulas. We evaluate the Kubo formula for the anomalous vortical conductivity at weak coupling and show that it receives contributions proportional to the gravitational anomaly coefficie...

  11. Sharing AIS Related Anomalies (SARA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    misconfiguration and intentional misuse. These unintended behaviours generate an abundance of anomalies that the security community has an interest in monitoring...to end-user needs and thus be adopted by them. This section is organised as follows : • Section 2.1 describes the strategy used to identify potential...intrinsic and behavioural . Anomalies tagged and reported by TimeCaster can be found in the patent claim (see [13]) and can be augmented. 2.3.7 exactEarth

  12. Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

    2007-01-01

    We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

  13. Interannual variability of summertime outgoing longwave radiation over the Maritime Continent in relation to East Asian summer monsoon anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qi; Guan, Zhaoyong

    2017-08-01

    The Maritime Continent (MC) is under influences of both the tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Anomalous convective activities over the MC have significant impacts on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and climate in China. In the present study, the variation in convective activity over the MC in boreal summer and its relationship to EASM anomalies are investigated based on regression analysis of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and CMAP [Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation] data, with a focus on the impacts of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The most significant interannual variability of convective activity is found over 10°S-10°N, 95°-145°E, which can be roughly defined as the key area of the MC (hereafter, KMC). Outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (OLRA) exhibits 3- to 7-yr periodicities over the KMC, and around 70% of the OLRA variance can be explained by the ENSO signal. However, distinct convection and precipitation anomalies still exist over this region after the ENSO and IOD signals are removed. Abnormally low precipitation always corresponds to positive OLRA over the KMC when negative diabatic heating anomalies and anomalous cooling of the atmospheric column lead to abnormal descending motion over this region. Correspondingly, abnormal divergence occurs in the lower troposphere while convergence occurs in the upper troposphere, triggering an East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan (EAP/PJ)-like anomalous wave train that propagates northeastward and leads to a significant positive precipitation anomaly from the Yangtze River valley in China to the islands of Japan. This EAP/PJ-like wave pattern becomes even clearer after the removal of the ENSO signal and the combined effects of ENSO and IOD, suggesting that convective anomalies over the KMC have an important impact on EASM anomalies. The above results provide important clues for the prediction of EASM anomalies and associated summer precipitation anomalies in China.

  14. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  15. On the relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and heavy precipitation over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatagai, A. I.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are known as the water-vapor rich part of the broader warm conveyor belt. Recently, several AR detection algorithms are proposed, and structures and that of statistical features are studied globally. Since Japan is a humid country located in the north of the warm pool, ARs, middle tropospheric fast moisture transport, might be an important moisture source for heavy precipitation events in Japan. The purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm of detection of ARs over Japan, and to investigate the possible relationship between them and Japanese heavy precipitation events. Since high spatial correlations were obtained between ERA-Interim reanalysis PW and that of SSM/I (microwave images), we used daily PW (0.75 degree grid) for detection of the ARs. Using 36 years (1979-2014) ERA-Interim, we defined daily smoothed PW climatology. Then, we detected AR area with daily anomaly of PW exceeding 10 mm. However, we exclude round-shaped (caused by Typhoon etc) area and the case of moisture transport not exceeding 30N/30S. The daily AR events over Japan (123-146E, 24-46N) are; 1013 cases for winter (DJF), 1722 for spring (MAM), 2229 for summer (JJA) and 1870 for autumn (SON) during the 36 years. They successfully include Hiroshima disaster event (19 August 2014, Hirota et al., 2015) and Amami heavy precipitation event (20 October 2010). The summer with large AR appearance (1998 and 2010) had negative SOI (La Nina), and lowest appearance year (1992) was the year of El Nino (positively significant SOI). Totally, more ARs come over Japan area in La Nina years, however, the seasonal statistics between SOI and the number of AR is not straightforward, indicating that it is difficult to explain ARs over Japan with only tropical inter-annual variability. We use APHRO-JP (Kamiguchi et al., 2010) daily gridded (0.05 degree) precipitation (1979-2011) over Japanese land areas for comparison. Among the 32 years (1979-2011), we had 82 cases of heavy

  16. Optimal Cross Hedging Winter Canola

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Seon-Woong; Brorsen, B. Wade; Yoon, Byung-Sam

    2014-01-01

    Winter canola in the southern Great Plains has shown large price fluctuations and there have been questions about which futures market could be used to reduce price risk. Our results indicate that the optimal futures contract to cross hedge winter canola is soybean oil futures.

  17. Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for the Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM Version 2.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Wu, Tongwen; Huang, Anning; Fang, Yongjie

    2015-07-15

    In this study, we apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). Our results show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, e.g. increased precipitation over the equator Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic Meiyu distribution over Eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It shows the simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs. over ocean in observation) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific tele-connection as observed. Our model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed.

  18. Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

    2018-04-01

    Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

  19. Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

    2016-02-01

    Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

  20. ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leung, L. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Prather, K. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ralph, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Rosenfeld, D. [The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel); Spackman, R. [Science and Technology Corporation (STC), Hampton, VA (United States); DeMott, P. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Fairall, C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hagos, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hughes, M. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Long, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rutledge, S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Waliser, D. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States); Wang, H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-09-01

    The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associated with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.

  1. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

    2006-01-01

    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  2. Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2014-01-01

    Abnormal sea-ice retreat over the Barents Sea during early winter has been considered a leading driver of recent midlatitude severe winters over Eurasia. However, causal relationships between such retreat and the atmospheric circulation anomalies remains uncertain. Using a reanalysis dataset, we found that poleward shift of a sea surface temperature front over the Gulf Stream likely induces warm southerly advection and consequent sea-ice decline over the Barents Sea sector, and a cold anomaly over Eurasia via planetary waves triggered over the Gulf Stream region. The above mechanism is supported by the steady atmospheric response to the diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream region obtained with a linear baroclinic model. The remote atmospheric response from the Gulf Stream would be amplified over the Barents Sea region via interacting with sea-ice anomaly, promoting the warm Arctic and cold Eurasian pattern. (letter)

  3. Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullather, Richard I.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Boisvert, Linette N.; Brucker, Ludovic; Lee, Jae N.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

    2016-01-01

    December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

  4. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.R. Archer

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the flow in the River Indus from its upper mountain basin is derived from melting snow and glaciers. Climatic variability and change of both precipitation and energy inputs will, therefore, affect rural livelihoods at both a local and a regional scale through effects on summer runoff in the River Indus. Spatial variation in precipitation has been investigated by correlation and regression analysis of long-period records. There is a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation at stations over the entire region, so that, for practical forecasting of summer runoff in some basins, a single valley-floor precipitation station can be used In contrast, spatial relationships in seasonal precipitation are weaker in summer and sometimes significantly negative between stations north and south of the Himalayan divide. Although analysis of long datasets of precipitation from 1895 shows no significant trend, from 1961–1999 there are statistically significant increases in winter, in summer and in the annual precipitation at several stations. Preliminary analysis has identified a significant positive correlation between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and winter precipitation in the Karakoram and a negative correlation between NAO and summer rainfall at some stations. Keywords: upper Indus basin, climate change, time series analysis, spatial correlation, teleconnections

  5. Prenatal sonographic diagnosis of focal musculoskeletal anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryu, Jung Kyu; Cho, Jeong Yeon; Lee, Young Ho; Kim, Ei Jeong; Chun, Yi Kyeong [Samsung Cheil Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2002-09-15

    Focal musculoskeletal anomalies are various and may be an isolated finding or may be found in conjunction with numerous associations, including genetic syndromes, Karyotype abnormals, central nervous system anomalies and other general musculoskeletal disorders. Early prenatal diagnosis of these focal musculoskeletal anomalies nor only affects prenatal care and postnatal outcome but also helps in approaching other numerous associated anomalies.

  6. Prenatal sonographic diagnosis of focal musculoskeletal anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Jung Kyu; Cho, Jeong Yeon; Lee, Young Ho; Kim, Ei Jeong; Chun, Yi Kyeong

    2002-01-01

    Focal musculoskeletal anomalies are various and may be an isolated finding or may be found in conjunction with numerous associations, including genetic syndromes, Karyotype abnormals, central nervous system anomalies and other general musculoskeletal disorders. Early prenatal diagnosis of these focal musculoskeletal anomalies nor only affects prenatal care and postnatal outcome but also helps in approaching other numerous associated anomalies.

  7. Anomalie de developpement sexuel : Un cas de ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mots clés : Pseudohermaphrodisme masculin, anomalie de développement sexuel XY, caryotype, sexe social. Anomaly of sexual development: a case of masculine pseudohermaphrodism or anomaly of development sexual XY. The anomalies of the sexual development must be detected to the birth where they constitute ...

  8. Coronary Artery Anomalies in Animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Scansen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Coronary artery anomalies represent a disease spectrum from incidental to life-threatening. Anomalies of coronary artery origin and course are well-recognized in human medicine, but have received limited attention in veterinary medicine. Coronary artery anomalies are best described in the dog, hamster, and cow though reports also exist in the horse and pig. The most well-known anomaly in veterinary medicine is anomalous coronary artery origin with a prepulmonary course in dogs, which limits treatment of pulmonary valve stenosis. A categorization scheme for coronary artery anomalies in animals is suggested, dividing these anomalies into those of major or minor clinical significance. A review of coronary artery development, anatomy, and reported anomalies in domesticated species is provided and four novel canine examples of anomalous coronary artery origin are described: an English bulldog with single left coronary ostium and a retroaortic right coronary artery; an English bulldog with single right coronary ostium and transseptal left coronary artery; an English bulldog with single right coronary ostium and absent left coronary artery with a prepulmonary paraconal interventricular branch and an interarterial circumflex branch; and a mixed-breed dog with tetralogy of Fallot and anomalous origin of all coronary branches from the brachiocephalic trunk. Coronary arterial fistulae are also described including a coronary cameral fistula in a llama cria and an English bulldog with coronary artery aneurysm and anomalous shunting vessels from the right coronary artery to the pulmonary trunk. These examples are provided with the intent to raise awareness and improve understanding of such defects.

  9. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-10-04

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  10. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  11. MAGSAT anomaly map and continental drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemouel, J. L. (Principal Investigator); Galdeano, A.; Ducruix, J.

    1981-01-01

    Anomaly maps of high quality are needed to display unambiguously the so called long wave length anomalies. The anomalies were analyzed in terms of continental drift and the nature of their sources is discussed. The map presented confirms the thinness of the oceanic magnetized layer. Continental magnetic anomalies are characterized by elongated structures generally of east-west trend. Paleomagnetic reconstruction shows that the anomalies found in India, Australia, and Antarctic exhibit a fair consistency with the African anomalies. It is also shown that anomalies are locked under the continents and have a fixed geometry.

  12. Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals...

  13. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  14. Interannual Variability of Regional Hadley Circulation Intensity Over Western Pacific During Boreal Winter and Its Climatic Impact Over Asia-Australia Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.

  15. Signal anomaly detection and characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, V.M.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Gloeckler, O.

    1988-08-01

    As part of a comprehensive signal validation system, we have developed a signal anomaly detector, without specifically establishing the cause of the anomaly. A signal recorded from process instrumentation is said to have an anomaly, if during steady-state operation, the deviation in the level of the signal, its root-mean-square (RMS) value, or its statistical distribution changes by a preset value. This deviation could be an unacceptable increase or a decrease in the quantity being monitored. An anomaly in a signal may be characterized by wideband or single-frequency noise, bias error, pulse-type error, nonsymmetric behavior, or a change in the signal bandwidth. Various signatures can be easily computed from data samples and compared against specified threshold values. We want to point out that in real processes, pulses can appear with different time widths, and at different rates of change of the signal. Thus, in characterizing an anomaly as a pulse-type, the fastest pulse width is constrained by the signal sampling interval. For example, if a signal is sampled at 100 Hz, we will not be able to detect pulses occurring at kHz rates. Discussion with utility and Combustion Engineering personnel indicated that it is not practical to detect pulses having a narrow time width. 9 refs., 11 figs., 8 tabs

  16. Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi

    2018-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.

  17. Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults Expert Information from Healthcare Professionals Who Specialize in the Care of ... thick clothing. Think about getting your thermals! –Essential winter wears: hats, gloves or preferably mittens, winter coat, ...

  18. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are at increased risk for overexposure ... associated with sun exposure. "It's easy to associate winter with frostbite and windburn, but most people are ...

  19. Radiologic analysis of congenital limb anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Hong Jun; Kim, Ok Hwa; Shinn, Kyung Sub; Kim, Nam Ae

    1994-01-01

    Congenital limb anomalies are manifested in various degree of severity and complexity bearing conclusion for description and nomenclature of each anomaly. We retrospectively analyzed the roentgenograms of congenital limb anomalies for the purpose of further understanding of the radiologic manifestations based on the embryonal defect and also to find the incidence of each anomaly. Total number of the patients was 89 with 137 anomalies. Recently the uniform system of classification for congenital anomalies of the upper limb was adopted by International Federation of Societies for Surgery of the Hand (IFSSH), which were categorized as 7 classifications. We used the IFSSH classification with some modification as 5 classifications; failure of formation of parts, failure of differentiation of parts, duplications, overgrowth and undergrowth. The patients with upper limb anomalies were 65 out of 89(73%), lower limb were 21(24%), and both upper and lower limb anomalies were 3(4%). Failure of formation was seen in 18%, failure of differentiation 39%, duplications 39%, overgrowth 8%, and undergrowth in 12%. Thirty-five patients had more than one anomaly, and 14 patients had intergroup anomalies. The upper limb anomalies were more common than lower limb. Among the anomalies, failure of differentiation and duplications were the most common types of congenital limb anomalies. Patients with failure of formation, failure of differentiation, and undergrowth had intergroup association of anomalies, but duplication and overgrowth tended to be isolated anomalies

  20. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus and climate change: Importance of winter forage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thrine Moen Heggberget

    2002-06-01

    climate may cause an altitudinal upward shift in the production of mat-forming lichens in alpine, sub-arctic regions. This is due to an increased potential for lichen growth at high altitudes, combined with increased competition from taller-growing vascular plants at lower altitudes, where the biomass of Betula nana in particular will increase. Matforming lichens dominant on dry, windblown ridges are easily overgrazed at high reindeer densities. This has longterm effects due to lichens’ slow regeneration rate, but may also reduce competition from vascular plants in a long time perspective. Fires may act in a similar way in some forested areas. Accessibility of winter forage depends on plant biomass, snow depth and hardness; ice crusts or exceptionally deep snow may result in starvation and increased animal mortality. Calf recruitment appears to be low and/or highly variable where winter ranges are overgrazed and hard or deep snow is common. Population decline in several Rangifer tarandus spp. has been associated with snow-rich winters. Effects tend to be delayed and cumulative, particularly on calves. This is mainly ascribed to feeding conditions for young animals which later affect age at maturation. Global warming may increase the frequency of deep or hard snow on reindeer ranges in Norway, due to increased precipitation and more frequent mild periods in winter. We hypothesise that potential benefits from increased plant productivity due to global warming will be counteracted by shifts in the distribution of preferred lichen forage, reduction of the areas of suitable winter ranges, and generally reduced forage accessibility in winter.

  1. WFC3 IR subarray anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushouse, Howard

    2009-07-01

    Certain combinations of WFC3 IR subarray size and sample sequence yield images that show a sharp change in background level that exactly bi-sects each detector amplifier quadrant. The change in level has an amplitude of a few DN per pixel. The cause of this anomaly and its apparent correlation with subarray size and sample sequence is not understood. Given the 4 available subarray sizes and 11 available readout sample sequences, there are a total of 44 possible subarray mode readout combinations. To date, 14 of those combinations have been used on-orbit in either calibration and GO programs. Of those, 3 combinations show the anomaly. This program will obtain IR dark exposures in the remaining 30 readout combinations that have not yet been explored. This will add to our knowledge of which combinations show the anomaly and will therefore help us to understand its origin.

  2. Graph anomalies in cyber communications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vander Wiel, Scott A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Storlie, Curtis B [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sandine, Gary [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hagberg, Aric A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fisk, Michael [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-11

    Enterprises monitor cyber traffic for viruses, intruders and stolen information. Detection methods look for known signatures of malicious traffic or search for anomalies with respect to a nominal reference model. Traditional anomaly detection focuses on aggregate traffic at central nodes or on user-level monitoring. More recently, however, traffic is being viewed more holistically as a dynamic communication graph. Attention to the graph nature of the traffic has expanded the types of anomalies that are being sought. We give an overview of several cyber data streams collected at Los Alamos National Laboratory and discuss current work in modeling the graph dynamics of traffic over the network. We consider global properties and local properties within the communication graph. A method for monitoring relative entropy on multiple correlated properties is discussed in detail.

  3. Multiple Visceral and Peritoneal Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gayathri Prabhu S

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Visceral and peritoneal anomalies are frequently encountered during cadaveric dissections and surgical procedures of abdomen. A thorough knowledge of the same is required for the success of diagnostic, surgical and radiological procedures of abdomen. We report multiple peritoneal and visceral anomalies noted during dissection classes for medical undergraduates. The anomalies were found in an adult male cadaver aged approximately 70 years. The right iliac fossa was empty due to the sub-hepatic position of caecum and appendix. The sigmoid colon formed an inverted “U” shaped loop above the sacral promontory in the median position. It entered the pelvis from the right side and descended along the lateral wall of the pelvis. The sigmoid mesocolon was attached obliquely to the posterior abdominal wall, just above the sacral promontory. Further there was a cysto-colic fold of peritoneum extending from the right colic flexure. We discuss the clinical significance of the variations.

  4. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  5. Isotopic composition of precipitation in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vreca, P.; Kanduc, T.; Zigon, S.; Trkov, Z.

    2005-01-01

    Three-years monitoring of isotopic composition (δ 18 O, δ 2 H and 3 H) in precipitation in Slovenia was performed to obtain temporal and spatial variability and to trace changes of isotopic composition in W-E direction. Monthly as well as daily variations in isotopic composition were compared with climate-related parameters such as local air temperature and precipitation amount. Large variations in isotopic composition were observed especially during extremely dry year 2003. Relationships of δ 2 H vs. δ 18 O are close to the Global Meteoric Water Line with deviations related to the influence of different air masses and evaporation. Tritium activity distribution shows typical seasonal variations with winter concentrations approaching the natural pre-bomb level. (author)

  6. Review on possible gravitational anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amador, Xavier E

    2005-01-01

    This is an updated introductory review of 2 possible gravitational anomalies that has attracted part of the Scientific community: the Allais effect that occur during solar eclipses, and the Pioneer 10 spacecraft anomaly, experimented also by Pioneer 11 and Ulysses spacecrafts. It seems that, to date, no satisfactory conventional explanation exist to these phenomena, and this suggests that possible new physics will be needed to account for them. The main purpose of this review is to announce 3 other new measurements that will be carried on during the 2005 solar eclipses in Panama and Colombia (Apr. 8) and in Portugal (Oct.15)

  7. Sequential auctions and price anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifunović Dejan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In sequential auctions objects are sold one by one in separate auctions. These sequential auctions might be organized as sequential first-price, second-price, or English auctions. We will derive equilibrium bidding strategies for these auctions. Theoretical models suggest that prices in sequential auctions with private values or with randomly assigned heterogeneous objects should have no trend. However, empirical research contradicts this result and prices exhibit a declining or increasing trend, which is called declining and increasing price anomaly. We will present a review of these empirical results, as well as different theoretical explanations for these anomalies.

  8. arXiv Anomaly-Free Models for Flavour Anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Tunney, Patrick

    We explore the constraints imposed by the cancellation of triangle anomalies on models in which the flavour anomalies reported by LHCb and other experiments are due to an extra U(1)' gauge boson Z'. We assume universal and rational U(1)' charges for the first two generations of left-handed quarks and of right-handed up-type quarks but allow different charges for their third-generation counterparts. If the right-handed charges vanish, cancellation of the triangle anomalies requires all the quark U(1)' charges to vanish, if there are either no exotic fermions or there is only one Standard Model singlet dark matter (DM) fermion. There are non-trivial anomaly-free models with more than one such `dark' fermion, or with a single DM fermion if right-handed up-type quarks have non-zero U(1)' charges. In some of the latter models the U(1)' couplings of the first- and second-generation quarks all vanish, weakening the LHC Z' constraint, and in some other models the DM particle has purely axial couplings, weakening the ...

  9. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  10. [Characteristics of chemical compositions of precipitation in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dong-Yan; Li, Xiu-Jinz; Chen, Yuan-Yuan; Zou, Ben-Dong; Lin, An-Guo

    2011-07-01

    Characteristics of chemical compositions of precipitation in Beijing were analyzed. The average value of pH was 5.19 from 2005 to 2009, showing stable characteristics of acidification with precipitation. The lowest annual average pH was 4. 87 in 2008 with the highest acidification frequency of 42% and 23% in Chegongzhuang and Daxing districts respectively. The inorganic ion concentrations declined in 5a, indicating an increasing improvement of air quality in Beijing. The concentrations of NH4+ and NO3- were found to increase and contributed to the high nitrogen amount in precipitation. Different seasons have influence on composition concentrations. Generally speaking, the ion concentrations in winter were higher that that in summer. SO4(2-) was the main factor responsible for the acidification of snow in winter, SO4(2-) and NO3- had similar contributions to the acidification of precipitation in summer. It was also found that the local pollutants of SO2, NO(x) and NH3 were major contributors to the acidification of precipitation in Beijing area, local geological conditions and long-distance transfers have important effects on the neutralization of the precipitation.

  11. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  12. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  13. The prevalence of congenital anomalies in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolk, Helen; Loane, Maria; Garne, Ester

    2010-01-01

    EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) is the network of population-based registers of congenital anomaly in Europe, with a common protocol and data quality review, covering 1.5 million annual births in 22 countries. EUROCAT recorded a total prevalence of major congenital anomalies...... anomalies overwhelmingly concern children surviving the early neonatal period, who have important medical, social or educational needs. The prevalence of chromosomal anomalies was 3.6 per 1,000 births, contributing 28% of stillbirths/fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation with congenital anomaly, and 48...

  14. Anomaly detection in diurnal data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mata, F.; Zuraniewski, P.W.; Mandjes, M.; Mellia, M.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present methodological advances in anomaly detection tailored to discover abnormal traffic patterns under the presence of seasonal trends in data. In our setup we impose specific assumptions on the traffic type and nature; our study features VoIP call counts, for which several

  15. Descendants of the Chiral Anomaly

    OpenAIRE

    Jackiw, R.

    2000-01-01

    Chern-Simons terms are well-known descendants of chiral anomalies, when the latter are presented as total derivatives. Here I explain that also Chern-Simons terms, when defined on a 3-manifold, may be expressed as total derivatives.

  16. Neutrino anomaly and -nucleus interactions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The neutrino anomaly generally refers to the solar neutrino problem where the observed number of electron type neutrinos from the sun was found to be considerably smaller than the number predicted in standard model of particle interactions [1–2]. Similar depletion of muon type neutrinos is found in the flux of atmospheric ...

  17. Gaugino-assisted anomaly mediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kribs, Graham D.

    2001-01-01

    I present a model of supersymmetry breaking mediated through a small extra dimension. Standard model matter multiplets and a supersymmetry-breaking (or 'hidden') sector are confined to opposite four-dimensional boundaries while gauge multiplets live in the bulk. The hidden sector does not contain a singlet and the dominant contribution to gaugino masses is via anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking. Scalar masses get contributions from both anomaly mediation and a tiny hard breaking of supersymmetry by operators on the hidden-sector boundary. These operators contribute to scalar masses at one loop and in most of parameter space, their contribution dominates. Thus it is easy to make all squared scalar masses positive. As no additional fields or symmetries are required below the Planck scale, this is among the simplest working models of anomaly mediation. The gaugino spectrum is left untouched and the phenomenology of the model is roughly similar to anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking with a universal scalar mass added. Finally, the main differences in the spectrum between this model and other approaches are identified. This talk is based on work [1] done in collaboration with David E. Kaplan

  18. Algebraic study of chiral anomalies

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2012-06-14

    Jun 14, 2012 ... Abstract. The algebraic structure of chiral anomalies is made globally valid on non-trivial bundles ... Editor's Note: †Reproduced with kind permission from Springer Science+Business Media: Algebraic study of chiral anoma- ..... We shall see in the sequel several examples in which this ambiguity helps.

  19. Climatic potential for summer and winter wine production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo; Moreto, Victor Brunini; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; da Silva Cabral de Moraes, José Reinaldo; Valeriano, Taynara Tuany Borges; de Souza, Paulo Sergio

    2018-03-01

    The geoviticultural multicriteria climatic classification (MCC) system provides an efficient guide for assessing the influence of climate on wine varieties. Paraná is one of the three states in southern Brazil that has great potential for the expansion of wine production, mainly due to the conditions that favour two harvests a year. The objective was to apply the geoviticultural MCC system in two production seasons. We used maximum, mean and minimum air temperature and precipitation for 1990-2015 for the state of Paraná. Air temperature and Precipitation were used to calculate the evapotranspiration and water balance. We applied the MCC system to identify potential areas for grapevine production for harvests in both summer and winter and then determined the climatic zones for each geoviticultural climate. Paraná has viticultural climates with conditions favourable for grapevine cultivation for the production of fine wines from summer and winter harvests. The conditions for the winter harvest provided wines with good coloration and high aromatic potential relative to the summer harvest. Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot Blanc and Müller-Thurgau were suitable for regions with lower air temperatures and water deficits. Pinot Blanc and Müller-Thurgau were typical for the southern region of Paraná. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  20. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 1, Pentad Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad version 1 precipitation data set includes global precipitation rates for 5-day, or pentad, periods. The...

  1. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P

    2003-01-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  2. Analysis of Anomaly in Land Surface Temperature Using MODIS Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yorozu, K.; Kodama, T.; Kim, S.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.

    2011-12-01

    Atmosphere-land surface interaction plays a dominant role on the hydrologic cycle. Atmospheric phenomena cause variation of land surface state and land surface state can affect on atmosphereic conditions. Widely-known article related in atmospheric-land interaction was published by Koster et al. in 2004. The context of this article is that seasonal anomaly in soil moisture or soil surface temperature can affect summer precipitation generation and other atmospheric processes especially in middle North America, Sahel and south Asia. From not only above example but other previous research works, it is assumed that anomaly of surface state has a key factor. To investigate atmospheric-land surface interaction, it is necessary to analyze anomaly field in land surface state. In this study, soil surface temperature should be focused because it can be globally and continuously observed by satellite launched sensor. To land surface temperature product, MOD11C1 and MYD11C1 products which are kinds of MODIS products are applied. Both of them have 0.05 degree spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The difference of them is launched satellite, MOD11C1 is Terra and MYD11C1 is Aqua. MOD11C1 covers the latter of 2000 to present and MYD11C1 covers the early 2002 to present. There are unrealistic values on provided products even if daily product was already calibrated or corrected. For pre-analyzing, daily data is aggregated into 8-days data to remove irregular values for stable analysis. It was found that there are spatial and temporal distribution of 10-years average and standard deviation for each 8-days term. In order to point out extreme anomaly in land surface temperature, standard score for each 8-days term is applied. From the analysis of standard score, it is found there are large anomaly in land surface temperature around north China plain in early April 2005 and around Bangladesh in early May 2009.

  3. Analyzing coastal precipitation using TRMM observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Heiblum

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds, and surface friction increase in transition from sea to land can create persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

    Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the winter the Mediterranean sea is usually warmer than the adjacent land, resulting in frequent occurrence of land breeze that opposes the common synoptic winds. Using rain-rate vertical profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite, we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of average hydrometeor mass in clouds as a function of the distance from coastlines.

    Results show that coastlines in the Eastern Mediterranean are indeed favored areas for precipitation formation. The intra-seasonal and diurnal changes in the distribution of hydrometeor mass indicate that the land breeze may likely be the main responsible mechanism behind our results.

  4. Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

    2017-12-01

    A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

  5. Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on a Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

    2017-10-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The generally decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that

  6. Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

    2017-04-01

    Recently, climate change and human activities increased the desertification process in the Mediterranean regions, with dramatic consequences for agriculture and water resources. On the Sardinia island (Italy), runoff decreased significantly in the 1975-2010 period with a mean yearly runoff reduction of more than 50% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. The decrease in runoff severely impacts the management of water resources on the Sardinia island, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins, with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), the trend of yearly runoff computed with the Mann-Kendall test is negative, with the Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. The reason for the decrease in runoff is mainly the alarming decrease in the winter precipitation over the past few decades everywhere on the Sardinia island. Indeed, most of the yearly runoff of the Sardinian basins (on average, 70%) is produced by the winter precipitation due to the typical seasonality of the Mediterranean rainfall regime. Surprisingly, the winter precipitation trend is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher on the Sardinian west coast and becomes lower as one crosses the island toward the east coast. At the rain stations on the east coast, the τ Mann-Kendall values of the winter precipitation become almost half of the τ Mann-Kendall values on the west coast, which is exposed to the western European climate dynamics. In this sense, winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, the correlations decrease as one crosses the island toward the east

  7. Direct and disequilibrium effects on precipitation in transient climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, D.; Moyer, E.

    2012-08-01

    Climate models are in broad agreement that global precipitation increases with surface temperature as atmospheric CO2 concentrations rise, but recent studies have shown that climates that are not yet in equilibrium exhibit additional "transient precipitation effects". In conditions of rising CO2, for example, precipitation at a given temperature is suppressed relative to its equilibrium value. Some authors argue that the primary driver of these effects is ocean heat uptake, but most recent studies assume that they result from some direct radiative effect. We show here that global precipitation and temperature anomalies are insufficient to resolve mechanisms, since the conventional "fast/slow" representation of transient precipitation effects is degenerate with a "disequilibrium" representation that posits control only by ocean heat uptake. We use regional anomalies instead to show in multiple ways that ocean heat uptake is the dominant driver of transient precipitation effects in CO2-forced climates. Precipitation suppression appears predominantly over the ocean, with response over land of the opposite sign. The coefficients of a disequilibrium representation are uncorrelated, suggesting that they capture physically meaningful processes, while those of a fast/slow representation are highly correlated. Further, the regional patterns of transient precipitation response are highly similar for both CO2 and solar forcing, with a relatively small and homogeneous offset between them. Examination of the surface energy budget allows us to conclude that energy balance in solar-forced climates is achieved by the superposition of both disequilibrium and direct processes. Our results highlight the importance of using regional information rather than global aggregates for understanding the physics of transient climate change and its impacts on societies.

  8. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2, Monthly Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 data set includes global, monthly precipitation rates and associated random errors (RMSE),...

  9. Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Hao, Zhenchun; Yuan, Feifei; Su, Zhenkuan; Berndtsson, Ronny; Hao, Jie; Nyima, Tsring

    2017-11-01

    This study investigated the influence of five El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) types on rainy-season precipitation in China: central Pacific warming (CPW), eastern Pacific cooling (EPC), eastern Pacific warming (EPW), conventional ENSO and ENSO Modoki. The multi-scale moving t test was applied to determine the onset and withdrawal of rainy season. Results showed that the precipitation anomaly can reach up to 30 % above average precipitation during decaying CPW and EPW phases. Developing EPW could cause decreasing precipitation over large areas in China with 10-30 % lower than average precipitation in most areas. Conventional El Niño in the developing phase had the largest influence on ENSO-related precipitation among developing ENSO and ENSO Modoki regimes. Decaying ENSO also showed a larger effect on precipitation anomalies, compared to decaying ENSO Modoki. The difference between rainy-season precipitation under various ENSO regimes may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. Stronger monsoon and anti-cyclone are associated with enhanced rainy-season precipitation. The results suggest a certain predictability of rainy-season precipitation related to ENSO regimes.

  10. WPA Precipitation Tabulations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly precipitation data tabulated under the Work Projects Administration (WPA), a New Deal program created to reduce unemployment during the Great Depression....

  11. Mesotron Decays and the Role of Anomalies

    OpenAIRE

    Bardeen, William A.

    2007-01-01

    Puzzles associated with Yukawa's mesotron theory of nuclear interactions led to the discovery of "anomalies" in quantum field theory. I will discuss some of the remarkable consequences of these anomalies in the physics of elementary particles.

  12. Mesozoic anomalies in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramana, M.V.; Nair, R.R.; Sarma, K.V.L.N.S.; Ramprasad, T.; Krishna, K.S.; Subrahmanyam, V.; D'Cruz, M.; Subrahmanyam, C.; Paul, J.; Subrahmanyam, A.S.; Sekhar, D.V.C.

    The analysis of 8200 line km of total magnetic intensity data in the Bay of Bengal, northeastern Indian Ocean, revealed the presence of approximately N30~'E-trending seafloor spreading type magnetic anomalies. These anomalies resemble the Mesozoic...

  13. Needs for reactivity anomaly monitoring in CRBRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullock, J.B.

    1975-01-01

    Two general classifications of reactivity anomalies are defined and explicit design criteria and operational philosophy for an anomaly monitoring system for the Clinch River Breeder Reactor are presented. (JWR)

  14. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

    2018-03-13

    Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

  15. A metagenomic assessment of winter and summer bacterioplankton from Antarctica Peninsula coastal surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzymski, Joseph J; Riesenfeld, Christian S; Williams, Timothy J; Dussaq, Alex M; Ducklow, Hugh; Erickson, Matthew; Cavicchioli, Ricardo; Murray, Alison E

    2012-10-01

    Antarctic surface oceans are well-studied during summer when irradiance levels are high, sea ice is melting and primary productivity is at a maximum. Coincident with this timing, the bacterioplankton respond with significant increases in secondary productivity. Little is known about bacterioplankton in winter when darkness and sea-ice cover inhibit photoautotrophic primary production. We report here an environmental genomic and small subunit ribosomal RNA (SSU rRNA) analysis of winter and summer Antarctic Peninsula coastal seawater bacterioplankton. Intense inter-seasonal differences were reflected through shifts in community composition and functional capacities encoded in winter and summer environmental genomes with significantly higher phylogenetic and functional diversity in winter. In general, inferred metabolisms of summer bacterioplankton were characterized by chemoheterotrophy, photoheterotrophy and aerobic anoxygenic photosynthesis while the winter community included the capacity for bacterial and archaeal chemolithoautotrophy. Chemolithoautotrophic pathways were dominant in winter and were similar to those recently reported in global 'dark ocean' mesopelagic waters. If chemolithoautotrophy is widespread in the Southern Ocean in winter, this process may be a previously unaccounted carbon sink and may help account for the unexplained anomalies in surface inorganic nitrogen content.

  16. Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

  17. Changes of Winter Oilseed Rape Plant Survival During Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balodis Oskars

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. significance among field crops is unchangeable in Latvia in the last decade. Plant density of winter oilseed rape during growth period is influenced by plant development in autumn and plant wintering. The aim of four year (2008 – 2011 research in the LLU Research and Study farm “Vecauce” was to investigate the influence of agronomical factors (sowing date, sowing rate, fungicide (metkonazole application and meteorological factors on two type (line, hybrid winter oilseed rape varieties plant density changes from sowing till harvesting. Plant density in autumn, spring and during harvesting was influenced also by meteorological parameters such as air temperature and precipitation. On four year average, field germination was observed from 66% to 95%. Sowing date significantly (p0.05 influenced by fungicide as growth regulator application in autumn in any trial year. Influence of sowing date and sowing rate on the total plant density at harvest time was significant in all trial years (p<0.05 for both varieties. At higher sowing rate the plant loss during growing period was higher than at lower rates.

  18. Spatial radon anomalies on active faults in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.-Y.; King, B.-S.; Evans, W.C.; Wei Zhang

    1996-01-01

    Radon emanation has been observed to be anomalously high along active faults in many parts of the world. We tested this relationship by conducting and repeating soil-air radon surveys with a portable radon meter across several faults in California. The results confirm the existence of fault-associated radon anomalies, which show characteristic features that may be related to fault structures but vary in time due to other environmental changes, such as rainfall. Across two creeping faults in San Juan Bautista and Hollister, the radon anomalies showed prominent double peaks straddling the fault-gouge zone during dry summers, but the peak-to-background ratios diminished after significant rain fall during winter. Across a locked segment of the San Andreas fault near Olema, the anomaly has a single peak located several meters southwest of the slip zone associated with the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Across two fault segments that ruptured during the magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake in 1992, anomalously high radon concentration was found in the fractures three weeks after the earthquake. We attribute the fault-related anomalies to a slow vertical gas flow in or near the fault zones. Radon generated locally in subsurface soil has a concentration profile that increases three orders of magnitude from the surface to a depth of several meters; thus an upward flow that brings up deeper and radon-richer soil air to the detection level can cause a significantly higher concentration reading. This explanation is consistent with concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen, measured in soil-air samples collected during one of the surveys. (Author)

  19. Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

    2017-10-01

    Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

  20. Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinzman, Larry D.; Kane, Douglas L.; Oechel, Walter C.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Zona, Donatella

    2017-08-01

    Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

  1. Limb body wall complex: A rare anomaly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panduranga Chikkannaiah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We present autopsy findings of a case of limb body wall complex (LBWC. The fetus had encephalocele, genitourinary agenesis, skeletal anomalies and body wall defects. The rare finding in our case is the occurrence of both cranial and urogenital anomalies. The presence of complex anomalies in this fetus, supports embryonal dysplasia theory of pathogenesis for LBWC.

  2. Fetal renal anomalies : diagnosis, management, and outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damen-Elias, Henrica Antonia Maria

    2004-01-01

    In two to three percent of fetuses structural anomalies can be found with prenatal ultrasound investigation. Anomalies of the urinary tract account for 15 to 20% of these anomalies with a detection rate of approximately of 90%. In Chapter 2, 3 and 4 we present reference curves for size and growth

  3. Holographic entanglement entropy and gravitational anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro, A.; Detournay, S.; Iqbal, N.; Perlmutter, E.

    2014-01-01

    We study entanglement entropy in two-dimensional conformal field theories with a gravitational anomaly. In theories with gravity duals, this anomaly is holographically represented by a gravitational Chern-Simons term in the bulk action. We show that the anomaly broadens the Ryu-Takayanagi minimal

  4. Summer fallow soil management - impact on rainfed winter wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Fucui; Wang, Zhaohui; Dai, Jian

    2014-01-01

    Summer fallow soil management is an important approach to improve soil and crop management in dryland areas. In the Loess Plateau regions, the annual precipitation is low and varies annually and seasonally, with more than 60% concentrated in the summer months from July to September, which...... is the summer fallow period in the winter wheat-summer fallow cropping system. With bare fallow in summer as a control, a 3-year location-fixed field experiment was conducted in the Loess Plateau to investigate the effects of wheat straw retention (SR), green manure (GM) planting, and their combination on soil...... water retention (WR) during summer fallow, winter wheat yield, and crop water use and nitrogen (N) uptake. The results showed that SR increased soil WR during summer fallow by 20 mm on average compared with the control over 3 experimental years but reduced the grain yield by 8% in the third year...

  5. Holomorphic anomaly and quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codesido, Santiago; Mariño, Marcos

    2018-02-01

    We show that the all-orders WKB periods of one-dimensional quantum mechanical oscillators are governed by the refined holomorphic anomaly equations of topological string theory. We analyze in detail the double-well potential and the cubic and quartic oscillators, and we calculate the WKB expansion of their quantum free energies by using the direct integration of the anomaly equations. We reproduce in this way all known results about the quantum periods of these models, which we express in terms of modular forms on the WKB curve. As an application of our results, we study the large order behavior of the WKB expansion in the case of the double well, which displays the double factorial growth typical of string theory.

  6. Evapotranspiration in winter wheat under different grazing and tillage practices in the southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) is highly variable both spatially and temporally with recurring periods of severe drought. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – summer fallow system with conventional tillage is the principal dryland cropping system in this region for both grazing an...

  7. Summer throughfall and winter deposition in the San Bernardino mountains in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Fenn; A. Bytnerowicz

    1997-01-01

    Summer throughfall and year-round precipitation chemistry were studied for three years at Barton Flats (BF), a low to moderate pollution site in the San Bernardino Mountains (SBM) in southern California. Winter fog plus dry deposition, and bulk deposition were also measured during one season at three sites traversing an atmospheric deposition gradient in the SBM....

  8. Nutrient losses from Fall and Winter-applied manure: Effects of timing and soil temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects both the infiltration of meltwater and precipitation, and nutrient cycling. The objectives of this study were to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall and winter-applied dairy manure based on the soil temperature at t...

  9. Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

    2010-01-01

    A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

  10. Long-term trends in precipitation and precipitation extremes and underlying mechanisms in the U.S. Great Basin during 1951-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Tingting; Tang, Guoping; Sun, Lin; Wu, Yuzhen; Liu, Yonglin; Dou, Yifeng

    2017-06-01

    Using daily precipitation records from 151 stations, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, and the rotated empirical orthogonal function, this study examined trends in precipitation and precipitation extremes and underlying mechanisms in the U.S. Great Basin during 1951-2013. The results indicate that annual total precipitation, 1 day and 5 day maximum precipitation, extreme precipitation days over the 95th and 99th percentiles trended upward during 1951-2013. Spatially, stations experienced significant positive trends in six indices are mostly distributed in the eastern basin, while those experienced significant negative trends are a few and situated in the western basin. Four distinct modes characterized by different patterns of annual precipitation variations were identified. They are the northeastern, southern, midwestern, and midnorthern modes. In addition, we found that the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on precipitation was low in the basin. The intensifying high-pressure system over the western North Pacific in winter and the increasing water vapor and air temperature of the atmosphere over the basin in winter and spring were mainly responsible for the upward trends in six indices during 1951-2013. Nevertheless, the topography regulates the effects of synoptic conditions on precipitation, contributing to the "east-west" contrast in station distribution between those experienced negative and positive trends. Overall, precipitation and precipitation extremes increased significantly in the eastern and northern basin while increases were not significant in the western and southern basin. This information has important implications for not only predicting future precipitation changes but also mitigating precipitation-change-associated risks on ecosystems and human society in the Great Basin.

  11. Parity anomaly in four dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurkov, M.; Vassilevich, D.

    2017-07-01

    In an analogy to the odd-dimensional case we define the parity anomaly as the part of the one-loop effective action for fermions associated with spectral asymmetry of the Dirac operator. This quantity is computed directly on four-dimensional manifolds with a boundary and related to the Chern-Simons current on the boundary. Despite a quite unusual Chern-Simons level obtained, the action is gauge invariant and passes all consistency checks.

  12. Spatio-temporal precipitation error propagation in runoff modelling: a case study in central Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olsson

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The propagation of spatio-temporal errors in precipitation estimates to runoff errors in the output from the conceptual hydrological HBV model was investigated. The study region was the Gimån catchment in central Sweden, and the period year 2002. Five precipitation sources were considered: NWP model (H22, weather radar (RAD, precipitation gauges (PTH, and two versions of a mesoscale analysis system (M11, M22. To define the baseline estimates of precipitation and runoff, used to define seasonal precipitation and runoff biases, the mesoscale climate analysis M11 was used. The main precipitation biases were a systematic overestimation of precipitation by H22, in particular during winter and early spring, and a pronounced local overestimation by RAD during autumn, in the western part of the catchment. These overestimations in some cases exceeded 50% in terms of seasonal subcatchment relative accumulated volume bias, but generally the bias was within ±20%. The precipitation data from the different sources were used to drive the HBV model, set up and calibrated for two stations in Gimån, both for continuous simulation during 2002 and for forecasting of the spring flood peak. In summer, autumn and winter all sources agreed well. In spring H22 overestimated the accumulated runoff volume by ~50% and peak discharge by almost 100%, owing to both overestimated snow depth and precipitation during the spring flood. PTH overestimated spring runoff volumes by ~15% owing to overestimated winter precipitation. The results demonstrate how biases in precipitation estimates may exhibit a substantial space-time variability, and may further become either magnified or reduced when applied for hydrological purposes, depending on both temporal and spatial variations in the catchment. Thus, the uncertainty in precipitation estimates should preferably be specified as a function of both time and space.

  13. Impact of precipitation intermittency on NAO-temperature signals in proxy records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casado

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In mid and high latitudes, the stable isotope ratio in precipitation is driven by changes in temperature, which control atmospheric distillation. This relationship forms the basis for many continental paleoclimatic reconstructions using direct (e.g. ice cores or indirect (e.g. tree ring cellulose, speleothem calcite archives of past precipitation. However, the archiving process is inherently biased by intermittency of precipitation. Here, we use two sets of atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and ERA-interim to quantify this precipitation intermittency bias, by comparing seasonal (winter and summer temperatures estimated with and without precipitation weighting. We show that this bias reaches up to 10 °C and has large interannual variability. We then assess the impact of precipitation intermittency on the strength and stability of temporal correlations between seasonal temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. Precipitation weighting reduces the correlation between winter NAO and temperature in some areas (e.g. Québec, South-East USA, East Greenland, East Siberia, Mediterranean sector but does not alter the main patterns of correlation. The correlations between NAO, δ18O in precipitation, temperature and precipitation weighted temperature are investigated using outputs of an atmospheric general circulation model enabled with stable isotopes and nudged using reanalyses (LMDZiso (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom. In winter, LMDZiso shows similar correlation values between the NAO and both the precipitation weighted temperature and δ18O in precipitation, thus suggesting limited impacts of moisture origin. Correlations of comparable magnitude are obtained for the available observational evidence (GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation and Greenland ice core data. Our findings support the use of archives of past δ18O for NAO reconstructions.

  14. Anomaly mediation in superstring theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conlon, Joseph P. [Rudolf Peierls Center for Theoretical Physics, Oxford (United Kingdom); Balliol College, Oxford (United Kingdom); Goodsell, Mark [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Palti, Eran [Centre de Physique Theoretique, Ecole Polytechnique, CNRS, Palaiseau (France)

    2010-08-15

    We study anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking in type IIB string theory and use our results to test the supergravity formula for anomaly mediated gaugino masses. We compute 1-loop gaugino masses for models of D3-branes on orbifold singularities with 3-form fluxes by calculating the annulus correlator of 3-form flux and two gauginos in the zero momentum limit. Consistent with supergravity expectations we find both anomalous and running contributions to 1-loop gaugino masses. For background Neveu-Schwarz H-flux we find an exact match with the supergravity formula. For Ramond-Ramond flux there is an off-shell ambiguity that precludes a full matching. The anomaly mediated gaugino masses, while determined by the infrared spectrum, arise from an explicit sum over UV open string winding modes. We also calculate brane-to-brane tree-level gravity mediated gaugino masses and show that there are two contributions coming from the dilaton and from the twisted modes, which are suppressed by the full T{sup 6} volume and the untwisted T{sup 2} volume respectively. (orig.)

  15. Influence of ENSO Modoki on Colombia Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Mesa, O. J.; Gómez Ríos, S.; Martinez Pérez, K.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, multiple observations reported contrasting effects in climate patterns around the world, due to differential warming patterns in tropical regions of Pacific Ocean during ENSO warm and cold events. Several authors have proposedthe concept that these variations are part of a new type of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) named as "Modoki". Using the classification of periods as Canonical or Modoki ENSO proposed by Tedeschi et al. (2013) we discriminatedthe quarterly mean values of precipitation in Colombia since 1975 to 2006 in order to analyze the rainfall behavior during El Niño Modoki (ENM) and La Nina Modoki (LNM), and contrast them with Canonical El Niño and La Niña (ENC-LNC) effects. The observations show that for the precipitation in Colombia, ENSO Modoki effects are different from Canonical ENSO effects, producing in general opposite climatic conditions between ENC and ENM, as well as between LNC and LNM. In other regions, the ENSO Modoki produces anomalies with the same sign that ENC, but with lower intensity. R. G. Tedeschi, I. F. Cavalcanti, and A. M. Grimm. Influences of two types of ENSO on Southamerican precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 33(6):1382-1400, 2013.

  16. The impact exploration of agricultural drought on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianhua; Wu, Jianjun; Han, Xinyi; Zhou, Hongkui

    2017-04-01

    Drought is one of the most serious agro-climatic disasters in the North China Plain, which has a great influence on winter wheat yield. Global warming exacerbates the drought trend of this region, so it is important to study the effect of drought on winter wheat yield. In order to assess the drought-induced winter wheat yield losses, SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index), the widely used drought index, was selected to quantify the drought from 1981 to 2013. Additionally, the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) crop model was used to simulate winter wheat yield at 47 stations in this region from 1981 to 2013. We analyzed the relationship between winter wheat yield and the SPEI at different time scales in each month during the growing season. The trends of the SPEI and the trends of winter wheat yield at 47 stations over the past 32 years were compared with each other. To further quantify the effect of drought on winter wheat yield, we defined the year that SPEI varied from -0.5 to 0.5 as the normal year, and calculated the average winter wheat yield of the normal years as a reference yield, then calculated the reduction ratios of winter wheat based on the yields mentioned above in severe drought years. As a reference, we compared the results with the reduction ratios calculated from the statistical yield data. The results showed that the 9 to 12-month scales' SPEI in April, May and June had a high correlation with winter wheat yield. The trends of the SPEI and the trends of winter wheat yield over the past 32 years showed a positive correlation (pChina Plain

  17. Precipitation, temperature, and moisture transport variations associated with two distinct ENSO flavors during 1979-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

    2016-11-01

    Interannual precipitation and temperature variations during 1979-2014 are investigated by examining the effects of two distinct flavors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), i.e., the tropical eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. Satellite- and ground-based observations with global coverage are applied including the monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and surface temperature anomalies from the NASA-GISS surface temperature anomaly analysis. Related variations in other water-cycle components including atmospheric moisture transport are also examined by using the outputs from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). While the second leading mode from an EOF analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies between 30°N and 30°S is dominated by interdecadal-scale variability that is not a focus of this study, the first and third leading modes represent well the EP and CP events, respectively. The corresponding principal components (PC1 and PC3) are then applied as indices to estimate the influences of the two ENSO flavors on various physical components through linear regression. Because of their distinct SST configurations in the tropical Pacific, the two ENSO flavors manifest different spatial features of precipitation anomalies as shown in past studies. Differences can also be readily seen in satellite-retrieved tropospheric layered temperatures and oceanic columnar water vapor content. General agreements between observations and MERRA outputs can be obtained as judged by consistent respective anomalies corresponding to the two ENSO flavors, suggesting that MERRA could provide an accurate account of variations on the interannual time scale. Interannual variations in MERRA vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) are further examined to explore possible relations between precipitation and tropospheric moisture transport corresponding to the

  18. Satellite Monitoring of Vegetation Response to Precipitation and Dust Storm Outbreaks in Gobi Desert Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuki Sofue

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently, droughts have become widespread in the Northern Hemisphere, including in Mongolia. The ground surface condition, particularly vegetation coverage, affects the occurrence of dust storms. The main sources of dust storms in the Asian region are the Taklimakan and Mongolian Gobi desert regions. In these regions, precipitation is one of the most important factors for growth of plants especially in arid and semi-arid land. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between precipitation and vegetation cover dynamics over 29 years in the Gobi region. We compared the patterns between precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for a period of 29 years. The precipitation and vegetation datasets were examined to investigate the trends during 1985–2013. Cross correlation analysis between the precipitation and the NDVI anomalies was performed. Data analysis showed that the variations of NDVI anomalies in the east region correspond well with the precipitation anomalies during this period. However, in the southwest region of the Gobi region, the NDVI had decreased regardless of the precipitation amount, especially since 2010. This result showed that vegetation in this region was more degraded than in the other areas.

  19. Relationships between Tropical Rainfall Events and Regional Annual Rainfall Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

    2016-12-01

    Regional annual precipitation anomalies strongly impact the health of regional ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and the probability of flood and drought conditions. Individual event characteristics, including rain rate, areal coverage, and stratiform fraction are also crucial in considering large-scale impacts on these resources. Therefore, forecasting individual event characteristics is important and could potentially be improved through correlation with longer and better predicted timescale environmental variables such as annual rainfall. This study examines twelve years of retrieved rainfall characteristics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite at a 5° x 5° resolution between 35°N and 35°S, as a function of annual rainfall anomaly derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project data. Rainfall event characteristics are derived at a system scale from the University of Utah TRMM Precipitation Features database and at a 5-km pixel scale from TRMM 2A25 products. For each 5° x 5° grid box and year, relationships between these characteristics and annual rainfall anomaly are derived. Additionally, years are separated into wet and dry groups for each grid box and are compared versus one another. Convective and stratiform rain rates, along with system area and volumetric rainfall, generally increase during wetter years, and this increase is most prominent over oceans. This is in agreement with recent studies suggesting that convective systems become larger and rainier when regional annual rainfall increases or when the climate warms. Over some land regions, on the other hand, system rain rate, volumetric rainfall, and area actually decrease as annual rainfall increases. Therefore, land and ocean regions generally exhibit different relationships. In agreement with recent studies of extreme rainfall in a changing climate, the largest and rainiest systems increase in relative size and intensity compared to average systems, and do

  20. NOy production, ozone loss and changes in net radiative heating due to energetic particle precipitation in 2002-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnhuber, Miriam; Berger, Uwe; Funke, Bernd; Nieder, Holger; Reddmann, Thomas; Stiller, Gabriele; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Maik Wissing, Jan

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the stratospheric nitrogen budget, ozone abundances and net radiative heating using results from three global chemistry-climate models considering solar protons and geomagnetic forcing due to auroral or radiation belt electrons. Two of the models cover the atmosphere up to the lower thermosphere, the source region of auroral NO production. Geomagnetic forcing in these models is included by prescribed ionization rates. One model reaches up to about 80 km, and geomagnetic forcing is included by applying an upper boundary condition of auroral NO mixing ratios parameterized as a function of geomagnetic activity. Despite the differences in the implementation of the particle effect, the resulting modeled NOy in the upper mesosphere agrees well between all three models, demonstrating that geomagnetic forcing is represented in a consistent way either by prescribing ionization rates or by prescribing NOy at the model top.Compared with observations of stratospheric and mesospheric NOy from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument for the years 2002-2010, the model simulations reproduce the spatial pattern and temporal evolution well. However, after strong sudden stratospheric warmings, particle-induced NOy is underestimated by both high-top models, and after the solar proton event in October 2003, NOy is overestimated by all three models. Model results indicate that the large solar proton event in October 2003 contributed about 1-2 Gmol (109 mol) NOy per hemisphere to the stratospheric NOy budget, while downwelling of auroral NOx from the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere contributes up to 4 Gmol NOy. Accumulation over time leads to a constant particle-induced background of about 0.5-1 Gmol per hemisphere during solar minimum, and up to 2 Gmol per hemisphere during solar maximum. Related negative anomalies of ozone are predicted by the models in nearly every polar

  1. Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

    2015-11-09

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

  2. The asymmetric effects of El Niño and La Niña on the East Asian winter monsoon and their simulation by CMIP5 atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhun; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

    2017-02-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the effect of La Niña events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Niño events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Niño events and stronger during La Niña winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Niño years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone during El Niño events and the WNP cyclone during La Niña events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Niña events is westward-shifted relative to its El Niño counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Niño and La Niña anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP. However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.

  3. Projected Precipitation Changes within the Great Lakes Region: A Multi-scale Analysis of Precipitation Intensity and Seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basile, S.; Steiner, A. L.; Brown, D.; Bryan, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    The Great Lakes region supports a diverse network of agriculture, transportation and tourism centered on some of the largest freshwater bodies of water in the world. Precipitation affects these sectors as concerns about precipitation timing and intensity can affect the agricultural growing season, runoff, and subsequent water quality. Here, we examine precipitation projections for mid-century (2041-2065) within the Great Lakes basin (GLB) and two sub-regions using three climate model ensembles of varying resolutions to constrain and compare associated precipitation uncertainties. These include: 1. atmosphere-ocean models from the CMIP5 global simulations with the RCP 8.5 scenario (12 members, resolution ranging from ~1 to ~3 degrees), 2. dynamically downscaled regional climate models from NARCCAP with the SRES A2 scenario (4 members at ~0.5 degree resolution (50 km)), and 3. high resolution (~0.25 degree resolution (25 km)) regional climate model simulations with the RCP 8.5 scenario (RegCM (hereafter RCM3(HiRes)), 2 members). For the entire GLB, all three ensembles captured the intensity of historical events well, but with a bias in the high intensity precipitation events as compared to observed intensity, with fewer overprediction events by the NARCCAP and RCM3(HiRes) ensembles. Daily probability density functions from three model ensembles reveal consistent increases in high precipitation event probabilities for all seasons, even after accounting for wet model biases during the observation period (1980-1999). Comparing all three ensembles to the historical period for the GLB, both CMIP5 and NARCCAP ensembles capture the annual seasonal cycle with a wet bias in the winter and spring, while the RCM3(HiRes) ensemble shows a dry bias for all seasons except winter. For the Lake Michigan and Western Lake Erie basin sub-regions, the spring and winter biases remain present across ensembles, however the RCM3(HiRes) summer dry bias is reduced. Overall, the three climate

  4. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Mojave Desert ecosystem processes are dependent upon the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Multi-decadal periods of drought or above-average rainfall affect landscape vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. The seasonality of precipitation events can also affect the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. To develop an understanding of precipitation regimes and fire patterns we used monthly average precipitation data and GIS data representing burned areas from 1971-2010. We applied a K-means cluster analysis to the monthly precipitation data identifying three distinct precipitation seasons; winter (October – March), spring (April-June) and summer (July-September) and four discrete precipitation regimes within the Mojave ecoregion.

  5. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vajiheh mohammadi sabet

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

  6. A study on the processes that cause extreme precipitation on the west coast of Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Sandvik, Mari Ingeborg

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to get a deeper understanding of extreme daily precipitation events on the west coast of Norway. To examine the extreme precipitation on the west coast of Norway, daily precipitation events are investigated by using observations from 114 stations in the time period 1961-2009. The main focus is given to three of the 50 most extreme daily precipitation events; one winter, one spring and one fall event. By using the Weather Research Forecast model and by changing t...

  7. Improvement of the Seasonal Prediction of the Baiu Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, T.; Yamaura, T.

    2009-12-01

    The Baiu (in Japanese, Meiyu in Chinese, and Changma in Korean) precipitation, which is requisite for water resources in East Asia, occurs with a zonal front appearing in early boreal summer (June and July) near the northwestern rim of the subtropical Pacific high. This front, i.e., the Baiu front, clearly shows interannual variations that are related with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and with the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) of the Asian monsoon. Some studies have already revealed how the Baiu frontal activity is modulated by each of the ENSO and the TBO. However, these two large-scale interannual variations, which have different periodicity, coexist in the real circulation system. Using diagnostic approach, this work evaluates the predictability of Baiu precipitation in this coexistence. When the ENSO and the TBO are "in phase" and the El Nino-like events occur, the Baiu precipitation is larger than normal, whereas the precipitation becomes smaller, when the El Nino-like events appear in the "out-of-phase" relationship between the ENSO and the TBO. Thus, the correlation between the ENSO and the Baiu precipitation is changed by the relative phase of TBO. Such a modulation is performed by the local convective activity around the Philippines. In the large-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO, there appear the specific anomalies, which have opposite signs locally, around the Philippines when the TBO is out of phase. It was found that the use of both the local convective activity around the Philippines and the parameters of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation index contributes to improve the seasonal prediction of the Baiu precipitation.

  8. Groundwater level responses to precipitation variability in Mediterranean insular aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Garcia, Celso; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique

    2017-09-01

    Groundwater is one of the largest and most important sources of fresh water on many regions under Mediterranean climate conditions, which are exposed to large precipitation variability that includes frequent meteorological drought episodes, and present high evapotranspiration rates and water demand during the dry season. The dependence on groundwater increases in those areas with predominant permeable lithologies, contributing to aquifer recharge and the abundance of ephemeral streams. The increasing pressure of tourism on water resources in many Mediterranean coastal areas, and uncertainty related to future precipitation and water availability, make it urgent to understand the spatio-temporal response of groundwater bodies to precipitation variability, if sustainable use of the resource is to be achieved. We present an assessment of the response of aquifers to precipitation variability based on correlations between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales and the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) across a Mediterranean island. We detected three main responses of aquifers to accumulated precipitation anomalies: (i) at short time scales of the SPI (24 months). The differing responses were mainly explained by differences in lithology and the percentage of highly permeable rock strata in the aquifer recharge areas. We also identified differences in the months and seasons when aquifer storages are more dependent on precipitation; these were related to climate seasonality and the degree of aquifer exploitation or underground water extraction. The recharge of some aquifers, especially in mountainous areas, is related to precipitation variability within a limited spatial extent, whereas for aquifers located in the plains, precipitation variability influence much larger areas; the topography and geological structure of the island explain these differences. Results indicate large spatial variability in the response of aquifers to precipitation in

  9. Algorithms for Anomaly Detection - Lecture 1

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2017-01-01

    The concept of statistical anomalies, or outliers, has fascinated experimentalists since the earliest attempts to interpret data. We want to know why some data points don’t seem to belong with the others: perhaps we want to eliminate spurious or unrepresentative data from our model. Or, the anomalies themselves may be what we are interested in: an outlier could represent the symptom of a disease, an attack on a computer network, a scientific discovery, or even an unfaithful partner. We start with some general considerations, such as the relationship between clustering and anomaly detection, the choice between supervised and unsupervised methods, and the difference between global and local anomalies. Then we will survey the most representative anomaly detection algorithms, highlighting what kind of data each approach is best suited to, and discussing their limitations. We will finish with a discussion of the difficulties of anomaly detection in high-dimensional data and some new directions for anomaly detec...

  10. Algorithms for Anomaly Detection - Lecture 2

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2017-01-01

    The concept of statistical anomalies, or outliers, has fascinated experimentalists since the earliest attempts to interpret data. We want to know why some data points don’t seem to belong with the others: perhaps we want to eliminate spurious or unrepresentative data from our model. Or, the anomalies themselves may be what we are interested in: an outlier could represent the symptom of a disease, an attack on a computer network, a scientific discovery, or even an unfaithful partner. We start with some general considerations, such as the relationship between clustering and anomaly detection, the choice between supervised and unsupervised methods, and the difference between global and local anomalies. Then we will survey the most representative anomaly detection algorithms, highlighting what kind of data each approach is best suited to, and discussing their limitations. We will finish with a discussion of the difficulties of anomaly detection in high-dimensional data and some new directions for anomaly detec...

  11. Coronary anomalies: what the radiologist should know

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Ornellas Neves

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available AbstractCoronary anomalies comprise a diverse group of malformations, some of them asymptomatic with a benign course, and the others related to symptoms as chest pain and sudden death. Such anomalies may be classified as follows: 1 anomalies of origination and course; 2 anomalies of intrinsic coronary arterial anatomy; 3 anomalies of coronary termination. The origin and the proximal course of anomalous coronary arteries are the main prognostic factors, and interarterial course or a coronary artery is considered to be malignant due its association with increased risk of sudden death. Coronary computed tomography angiography has become the reference method for such an assessment as it detects not only anomalies in origination of these arteries, but also its course in relation to other mediastinal structures, which plays a relevant role in the definition of the therapeutic management. Finally, it is essential for radiologists to recognize and characterize such anomalies.

  12. Seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Dolk, Helen; Addor, Marie-Claude

    2014-01-01

    seasonality of 65,764 nonchromosomal and 12,682 chromosomal congenital anomalies covering 3.3 million births. Analysis was performed by estimated month of conception. Analyses were performed for 86 congenital anomaly subgroups, including a combined subgroup of congenital anomalies previously associated......%), congenital hydronephrosis (July, 12%), urinary defects (July, 5%), and situs inversus (December, 36%), but not for nonchromosomal anomalies combined, chromosomal anomalies combined, or other anomalies analyzed. CONCLUSION: We have confirmed previously described seasonality for congenital cataract and hip......BACKGROUND: This study describes seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe to provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of specific time varying exposures such as the H1N1 pandemic influenza, and to provide a comprehensive and recent picture of seasonality and its possible relation...

  13. Major congenital anomalies in a Danish region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garne, Ester; Hansen, Anne Vinkel; Birkelund, Anne Sofie

    2014-01-01

    congenital anomaly, 13.9% had a chromosomal anomaly and 7.7% were multiple congenital anomalies. The combined foetal and infant mortality in the study area was 11.6 per 1,000 births. 19% (2.2 per 1,000) of these deaths were foetuses and infants with major congenital anomalies. Combined foetal and infant......INTRODUCTION: This study describes the prevalence of congenital anomalies and changes over time in birth outcome, mortality and chronic maternal diseases. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study was based on population data from the EUROCAT registry covering the Funen County, Denmark, 1995......-2008. The registry covers live births, foetal deaths with a gestational age (GA) of 20 weeks or more, and terminations of pregnancy due to congenital anomalies (TOPFA). RESULTS: The overall prevalence of congenital anomalies was 2.70% (95% confidence interval: 2.58-2.80). The majority of cases had an isolated...

  14. Coronary anomalies: what the radiologist should know*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Priscilla Ornellas; Andrade, Joalbo; Monção, Henry

    2015-01-01

    Coronary anomalies comprise a diverse group of malformations, some of them asymptomatic with a benign course, and the others related to symptoms as chest pain and sudden death. Such anomalies may be classified as follows: 1) anomalies of origination and course; 2) anomalies of intrinsic coronary arterial anatomy; 3) anomalies of coronary termination. The origin and the proximal course of anomalous coronary arteries are the main prognostic factors, and interarterial course or a coronary artery is considered to be malignant due its association with increased risk of sudden death. Coronary computed tomography angiography has become the reference method for such an assessment as it detects not only anomalies in origination of these arteries, but also its course in relation to other mediastinal structures, which plays a relevant role in the definition of the therapeutic management. Finally, it is essential for radiologists to recognize and characterize such anomalies. PMID:26379322

  15. Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Upper Rio Grande Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costigan, Keeley R.; Bossert, James E.; Langley, David L.

    1997-12-31

    In this research, we study Albuquerque`s water and how it may be affected by changes in the regional climate, as manifested by variations in Rio Grande water levels. To do this, we rely on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models. Preliminary work on the project has focused on uncoupled simulations of the aquifer beneath Albuquerque and winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin. The latter is discussed in this paper.

  16. Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Upper Rio Grande Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costigan, Keeley R.; Bossert, James E.; Langley, David L.

    1997-10-01

    In this research, we study Albuquerque's water and how it may be affected by changes in the regional climate, as manifested by variations in Rio Grande water levels. To do this, we rely on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models. Preliminary work on the project has focused on uncoupled simulations of the aquifer beneath Albuquerque and winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin. The latter is discussed in this paper

  17. Anomalies of hydrological cycle components during the 2007 heat wave in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircheva, Biliana; Tsekov, Milen; Meyer, Ulrich; Guerova, Guergana

    2017-12-01

    Heat waves have large adverse social, economic and environmental effects which include increased mortality, transport restrictions and a decreased agricultural production. The estimated economic losses of the 2007 heat wave in South-east Europe exceed 2 billion EUR with 19 000 hospitalisation in Romania only. Understanding the changes of the hydrological cycle components is essential for early forecasting of heat wave occurrence. Valuable insight of two components of the hydrological cycle, namely Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA), is now possible using observations from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. In this study anomalies of temperature, precipitation, IWV and TWS in 2007 are compared to 2003-2013 period for Sofia, Bulgaria. In 2007, positive temperature anomalies are observed in January, February and July. There are negative IWV and precipitation anomalies in July 2007 that coincides with the heat wave in Bulgaria. TWSA in 2007 are negative in January, May and from July to October being largest in August. Long-term trends of: 1) temperatures have a local maximum in March 2007, 2) TWSA has a local minimum in May 2007, 3) IWV has a local minimum in September 2007, and 4) precipitation has a local maximum in July 2007. The TWSA interannual trends in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland show similar behaviour as indicated by cross correlation coefficients of 0.9 and 0.7 between Bulgaria and Hungary and Bulgaria and Poland respectively. ALADIN-Climate describes the anomalies of temperature and IWV more successfully than those of precipitation and TWS.

  18. IDRC Bulletin — Winter 2017

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-01-16

    Jan 16, 2018 ... In this issue, read the research results from our Safe and Inclusive Cities program and don't forget that the Joint Canada-Israel Health Research Program 2018 call is now open. IDRC Bulletin logo IDRC Bulletin — Winter 2017. Featured this month. View of Port-au-Prince in Haiti, March 30, 2016. Safe and ...

  19. Learning through a Winter's Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this…

  20. Winter School on Coding Theory

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 8. Winter School on Coding Theory. Information and Announcements Volume 8 Issue 8 August 2003 pp 111-111. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/08/0111-0111. Resonance ...

  1. Nuclear Winter: The Continuing Debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-23

    prospect of human annihilation. Speculation about the environmental results of a ’long darkness’ were considered by Paul Ehrlich .10 The term nuclear winter...Washington D.C., 1983 The Cold and the Dark: The World after Nuclear War, by Paul Ehrlich , et al. New York: Norton, 1984. (QH545 N83 C66 1983k Caldicott

  2. Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

    2013-12-01

    The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY EVAPORATION AND PRECIPITATION TIME SERIES AT CENTRAL MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Magallanes Quintanar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Advances on climate change research, as well as the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, would allow the understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of land-surface precipitation and evaporation time series at local and regional levels. In the present study, the spectral analysis approach was applied on monthly evaporation and precipitation anomaly time series with the aim of estimating their self-affinity statistics. The behavior of estimated fractal dimension values of evaporation time series throughout Zacatecas State territory is irregular, and noise in all the evaporation anomaly time series tends to have a persistent behavior. On the other hand, the behavior of estimated fractal dimension values of most of the precipitation time series throughout Zacatecas State territory tends to be like the Brownian motion. Self-affinity statistics of monthly evaporation or precipitation anomaly time series and geographic coordinates of 32 stations were used to estimate correlation coefficients; the results are compelling evidence concerning monthly precipitation anomaly behavior tends to be more regular toward North of Zacatecas State territory, that is, toward driest areas.

  4. Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dar, Reyaz Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Marazi, Asif

    2014-04-01

    Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Winter and Spring Runoff and Recharge in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, E. A.; Potter, K. W.

    2011-12-01

    Our research seeks to quantify the impacts of warming winter temperatures and increased winter precipitation on water resources in Wisconsin. We are currently working to calibrate a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Black Earth Creek Watershed, and will be using a newly-created frost module to examine the impacts of warming winter temperatures on winter and spring infiltration. As a class 1 trout stream, Black Earth Creek is of particular interest as a sensitive and economically important natural resource. Research carried out over 2010 utilized a one-dimensional soil model (Simultaneous Heat and Water, or SHAW) that simulates heat and water fluxes as well as frost processes. This model was driven by climate data obtained from a set of statistically-downscaled and de-biased General Circulation Model (GCM) data for historic and projected future for the years 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. This research suggested that warming temperatures and reduced snow cover, along with a projected increase in winter precipitation, would lead to decreased soil frost formation and a commensurate increase in winter and spring infiltration and recharge. The one-dimensional structure of the model, however, made it difficult to calibrate at the landscape scale, as it is fundamentally unable to replicate the complex spatial processes that are critically important to hydrologic response. We hope that the PRMS model, driven with the same modeled climatic data, will be able to confirm the results of our SHAW modeling; namely that winter and spring recharge will increase significantly in a warming climate. Such an increase in recharge could have profound impacts on Wisconsin fisheries, agriculture, and development.

  6. IOD influence on the early winter tibetan plateau snow cover: diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Chaoxia; Tozuka, Tomoki; Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan)

    2012-10-15

    Using diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation, the detailed mechanism of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence on the early winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover (EWTPSC) is clarified. In early winter of pure positive IOD years with no co-occurrence of El Nino, the anomalous dipole diabatic heating over the tropical Indian Ocean excites the baroclinic response in the tropics. Since both baroclinic and barotropic components of the basic zonal wind over the Arabian Peninsula increase dramatically in early winter due to the equatorward retreat of the westerly jet, the baroclinic mode excites the barotropic Rossby wave that propagates northeastward and induces a barotropic cyclonic anomaly north of India. This enables the moisture transport cyclonically from the northern Indian Ocean toward the Tibetan Plateau. The convergence of moisture over the plateau explains the positive influence of IOD on the EWTPSC. In contrast, the basic zonal wind over the Arabian Peninsula is weak in autumn. This is not favorable for excitation of the barotropic Rossby wave and teleconnection, even though the IOD-related diabatic heating anomaly in autumn similar to that in early winter exists. This result explains the insignificant (significant positive) partial correlation between IOD and the autumn (early winter) Tibetan Plateau snow cover after excluding the influence of ENSO. The sensitivity experiment forced by the IOD-related SST anomaly within the tropical Indian Ocean well reproduces the baroclinic response in the tropics, the teleconnection from the Arabian Peninsula, and the increased moisture supply to the Tibetan Plateau. Also, the seasonality of the atmospheric response to the IOD is simulated. (orig.)

  7. Changes in precipitating snow chemistry with seasonality in the remote Laohugou glacier basin, western Qilian Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiwen; Qin, Dahe; Qin, Xiang; Cui, Jianyong; Kang, Shichang

    2017-04-01

    Trace elements in the atmosphere could provide information about regional atmospheric pollution. This study presented a whole year of precipitation observation data regarding the concentrations of trace metals (e.g., Cr, Ni, Cu, Mn, Cd, Mo, Pb, Sb, Ti, and Zn), and a TEM-EDX (transmission electron microscope-energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer) analysis from June 2014 to September 2015 at a remote alpine glacier basin in Northwest China, the Laohugou (LHG) basin (4200 m a.s.l.), to determine the regional scale of atmospheric conditions and chemical processing in the free troposphere in the region. The results of the concentrations of trace metals showed that, although the concentrations generally were lower compared with that of surrounding rural areas (and cities), they showed an obviously higher concentration and higher EFs in winter (DJF) and a relatively lower concentration and lower EFs in summer (JJA) and autumn (SON), implying clearly enhanced winter pollution of the regional atmosphere in Northwest China. The TEM observed residue in precipitation that was mainly composed of types of dust, salt-dust, BC-fly ash-soot, and organic particles in precipitation, which also showed remarked seasonal change, showing an especially high ratio of BC-soot-fly ash particles in winter precipitation compared with that of other seasons (while organic particles were higher in the summer), indicating significant increased anthropogenic particles in the winter atmosphere. The source of increased winter anthropogenic pollutants mainly originated from emissions from coal combustion, e.g., the regional winter heating supply for residents and cement factories in urban and rural regions of Northwest China. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric optical depth (AOD) also showed a significant influence of regional atmospheric pollutant emissions over the region in winter. In total, this work indicated that the atmospheric environment in western Qilian

  8. Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Hui

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

  9. Effects of precipitation change and neighboring plants on population dynamics of Bromus tectorum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prevéy, Janet S; Seastedt, Timothy R

    2015-11-01

    Shifting precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change will influence the success of invasive plant species. In the Front Range of Colorado, Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and other non-native winter annuals have invaded grassland communities and are becoming more abundant. As the global climate warms, more precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow in winter, and an increase in winter rain could benefit early-growing winter annuals, such as B. tectorum, to the detriment of native species. In this study we measured the effects of simulated changes in seasonal precipitation and presence of other plant species on population growth of B. tectorum in a grassland ecosystem near Boulder, Colorado, USA. We also performed elasticity analyses to identify life transitions that were most sensitive to precipitation differences. In both study years, population growth rates were highest for B. tectorum growing in treatments receiving supplemental winter precipitation and lowest for those receiving the summer drought treatment. Survival of seedlings to flowering and seed production contributed most to population growth in all treatments. Biomass of neighboring native plants was positively correlated with reduced population growth rates of B. tectorum. However, exotic plant biomass had no effect on population growth rates. This study demonstrates how interacting effects of climate change and presence of native plants can influence the population growth of an invasive species. Overall, our results suggest that B. tectorum will become more invasive in grasslands if the seasonality of precipitation shifts towards wetter winters and allows B. tectorum to grow when competition from native species is low.

  10. Stratospheric influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzeau, Gaelle; Douville, Herve; Saint Martin, David

    2010-05-01

    Despite significant improvements in observing and data assimilation systems, long-range dynamical forecasting remains a difficult challenge for the climate modelling community. The skill of operational seasonal forecasting systems is particularly poor in the northern extratropics where seas surface temperature (SST) has a weaker influence than in the Tropics. It is therefore relevant to look for additional potential sources of long-range climate predictability in the stratosphere using ensembles of global atmospheric simulations. Besides a control experiment where the ARPEGE-Climat model is only driven by SST, parallel simulations have been performed in which an additional control on climate variability has been accounted for through the nudging of the northern extratropical stratosphere towards the ERA40 reanalysis. Though idealized, this original experiment design allows us to compare the relative contribution of the lower and upper boundary forcings on the simulated tropospheric variability. Results show that the stratospheric nudging improves the climatology and interannual variability of the mid-latitude troposphere, especially in winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Major impacts are found in particular on the simulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations (AO and NAO). Case studies were carried out for the 1976-1977 and 1988-1989 winters, corresponding to extreme phases of the AO. Results confirm the robustness of the positive impact of the nudging, especially for winter 1976-1977 corresponding to relatively weak SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A sensitivity study to the model resolution shows that a well-resolved stratosphere is not necessary for the nudging to be efficient. Besides seasonal mean results, analysis of the day-to-day variability in winter allowed us to better understand the stratospheric polar vortex influence on the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

  11. Stable isotopic characteristic of Taiwan's precipitation: A case study of western Pacific monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Tsung-Ren; Wang, Chung-Ho; Huang, Chi-Chao; Fei, Li-Yuan; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Hwong, Jeen-Lian

    2010-01-01

    The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic features of precipitation in Taiwan, an island located at the western Pacific monsoon area, are presented from nearly 3,500 samples collected during the past decade for 20 stations. Results demonstrate that moisture sources from diverse air masses with different isotopic signals are the main parameter in controlling the precipitation's isotope characteristics. The air mass from polar continental (Pc) region contributes the precipitation with high deuterium excess values (up to 23‰) and relatively enriched isotope compositions (e.g., - 3.2‰ for δ 18O) during the winter with prevailing northeasterly monsoon. By contrast, air masses from equatorial maritime (Em) and tropical maritime (Tm) supply the precipitation with low deuterium excess values (as low as about 7‰) and more depleted isotope values (e.g., - 8.9‰ and - 6.0‰ for δ 18O of Tm and Em, respectively) during the summer with prevailing southwesterly monsoon. Thus seasonal differences in terms of δ 18O, δD, and deuterium excess values are primarily influenced by the interactions among various precipitation sources. While these various air masses travel through Taiwan, secondary evaporation effects further modify the isotope characteristics of the inland precipitation, such as raindrop evaporation (reduces the deuterium excess of winter precipitation) and moisture recycling (increases the deuterium excess of summer precipitation). The semi-quantitative estimations in terms of evaluation for changes in the deuterium excess suggest that the raindrop evaporation fractions for winter precipitation range 7% to 15% and the proportions of recycling moisture in summer precipitation are less than 5%. Additionally, the isotopic altitude gradient in terms of δ 18O for summer precipitation is - 0.22‰/100 m, greater than - 0.17‰/100 m of winter precipitation. The greater isotopic gradient in summer can be attributed to a higher temperature vs. altitude gradient

  12. Congenital anomalies in Primorsky region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiku, P; Voronin, S; Golokhvast, K

    2015-01-01

    According to WHO hereditary diseases and congenital malformations contribute significantly to the health of population. Thus, the problems of epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and treatment of congenital abnormalities are of interest for many researchers [2]. In addition, the dynamic accounting for the incidence of congenital malformations and hereditary diseases allows the researchers to assess the ecological situation in the region [1]. The occurrence of congenital anomalies in the world varies; it depends heavily on how carefully the data is collected [4]. Multifactorial or polygenic diseases develop under the influence of environmental factors in the presence of defective genes. They can constitute up to 90% of all chronic pathology [2-5]. To determine the incidence of congenital anomalies under the influence of environmental factors. The study used the methodology of system evaluation of congenital anomalies incidence in Primorsky region, depending on bio-climatic and environmental conditions. The authors used health statistics for the period from 2000 to 2014, F.12 class for congenital abnormalities in adolescents and children that were compared in geographical and temporal aspects with environmental factors of 33 settlements in Primorsky region. The environment is represented by nature and climate (6 factor modules) and sanitation (7 factor modules) blocks of factors. When formalizing the information database of the environment a specially developed 10-point assessment scale was used. Statistical processing of the information was carried out using Pearson's chi-squared test and multiple regression method from SSPS application program package. The study found that over the 15-year period the level of congenital abnormalities in children increased by 27.5% and in adolescents - by 35.1%, and in 2014 it amounted to 1687.6 and 839.3 per 100 000 people, respectively. The predictive model shows a steady further growth of this pathology. The incidence

  13. Winter movement dynamics of black brant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

    2007-01-01

    Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

  14. Wintering ecology of adult North American ospreys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washburn, Brian E.; Martell, Mark S.; Bierregaard, Richard O.; Henny, Charles J.; Dorr, Brian S.; Olexa, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    North American Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) typically migrate long distances to their wintering grounds in the tropics. Beyond the general distribution of their wintering range (i.e., the Caribbean, South America, and Central America), very little is known about the wintering ecology of these birds. We used satellite telemetry to determine the duration of wintering period, to examine the characteristics of wintering areas used by Ospreys, and to quantify space use and activity patterns of wintering Ospreys. Adult Ospreys migrated to wintering sites and exhibited high wintering site fidelity among years. Overall, Ospreys wintered on river systems (50.6%) more than on lakes (19.0%), and use of coastal areas was (30.4%) intermediate. Ospreys remained on their wintering grounds for an average of 154 d for males and 167 d for females. Locations of wintering Ospreys obtained via GPS-capable satellite telemetry suggest these birds move infrequently and their movements are very localized (i.e., 2 and 1.4 km2, respectively. Overall, our findings suggest wintering adult North American Ospreys are very sedentary, demonstrating a pattern of limited daily movements and high fidelity to a few select locations (presumably roosts). We suggest this wintering strategy might be effective for reducing the risk of mortality and maximizing energy conservation.

  15. ISHM Anomaly Lexicon for Rocket Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmalzel, John L.; Buchanan, Aubri; Hensarling, Paula L.; Morris, Jonathan; Turowski, Mark; Figueroa, Jorge F.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) is a comprehensive capability. An ISHM system must detect anomalies, identify causes of such anomalies, predict future anomalies, help identify consequences of anomalies for example, suggested mitigation steps. The system should also provide users with appropriate navigation tools to facilitate the flow of information into and out of the ISHM system. Central to the ability of the ISHM to detect anomalies is a clearly defined catalog of anomalies. Further, this lexicon of anomalies must be organized in ways that make it accessible to a suite of tools used to manage the data, information and knowledge (DIaK) associated with a system. In particular, it is critical to ensure that there is optimal mapping between target anomalies and the algorithms associated with their detection. During the early development of our ISHM architecture and approach, it became clear that a lexicon of anomalies would be important to the development of critical anomaly detection algorithms. In our work in the rocket engine test environment at John C. Stennis Space Center, we have access to a repository of discrepancy reports (DRs) that are generated in response to squawks identified during post-test data analysis. The DR is the tool used to document anomalies and the methods used to resolve the issue. These DRs have been generated for many different tests and for all test stands. The result is that they represent a comprehensive summary of the anomalies associated with rocket engine testing. Fig. 1 illustrates some of the data that can be extracted from a DR. Such information includes affected transducer channels, narrative description of the observed anomaly, and the steps used to correct the problem. The primary goal of the anomaly lexicon development efforts we have undertaken is to create a lexicon that could be used in support of an associated health assessment database system (HADS) co-development effort. There are a number of significant

  16. Infective causes of congenital anomalies

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia, Aparecida Gomes Pinto

    1981-01-01

    Revisão sumária das causas infecciosas das anomalias congênitas englobando as malformações, que correspondem a estruturas anormais orgânicas ou tissulares decorrentes de erros primários de morfogenese embrionaria e deformações, que se instalam no período fetal da vida intrauterina, correspondentes a alterações de forma e estrutura de órgãos primitivamente bem constituidos.Review of the infective causes of Congenital Anomalies, including Malformations, which arise during the embryonic period a...

  17. Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The PREC data set is an analysis of monthly precipitation constructed on a 2.5(o)lat/lon grid over the global for the period from 1948 to the present. The land...

  18. Prenatal sonographic diagnosis of focal musculoskeletal anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryu, Jung-Kyu; Cho, Jeong-Yeon; Choi, Jong-Sun [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-12-15

    Focal musculoskeletal anomalies vary, and can manifest as part of a syndrome or be accompanied by numerous other conditions such as genetic disorders, karyotype abnormalities, central nervous system anomalies and other skeletal anomalies, lsolated focal musculoskeletal anomaly does, however, also occur; its early prenatal diagnosis is important in deciding prenatal care, and also helps in counseling parents about the postnatal effects of numerous possible associated anomalies. We have encountered 50 cases involving focal musculoskeletal anomalies, including total limb dysplasia [radial ray abnormality (n=3), mesomelic dysplasia (n=1)]; anomalies of the hand [polydactyly (n=8), syndactyly (n=3), ectrodactyly (n=1), clinodactyly (n=6), clenched hand (n=5)]; anomalies of the foot [clubfoot (n=10), rockerbottom foot (n=5), sandal gap deformity (n=1), curly toe (n=2)]; amniotic band syndrome (n=3); and anomalies of the focal spine [block vertebra (n=1), hemivertebra (n=1)]. Among these 50 cases, five [polydactyly (n=1), syndactyly (n=2) and curly toe (n=2) were confirmed by postnatal physical evaluation, two (focal spine anomalies) were diagnosed after postnatal radiologic examination, and the remaining 43 were proven at autopsy. For each condition, we describe the prenatal sonographic findings, and include a brief review.

  19. Prenatal sonographic diagnosis of focal musculoskeletal anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Jung-Kyu; Cho, Jeong-Yeon; Choi, Jong-Sun

    2003-01-01

    Focal musculoskeletal anomalies vary, and can manifest as part of a syndrome or be accompanied by numerous other conditions such as genetic disorders, karyotype abnormalities, central nervous system anomalies and other skeletal anomalies, lsolated focal musculoskeletal anomaly does, however, also occur; its early prenatal diagnosis is important in deciding prenatal care, and also helps in counseling parents about the postnatal effects of numerous possible associated anomalies. We have encountered 50 cases involving focal musculoskeletal anomalies, including total limb dysplasia [radial ray abnormality (n=3), mesomelic dysplasia (n=1)]; anomalies of the hand [polydactyly (n=8), syndactyly (n=3), ectrodactyly (n=1), clinodactyly (n=6), clenched hand (n=5)]; anomalies of the foot [clubfoot (n=10), rockerbottom foot (n=5), sandal gap deformity (n=1), curly toe (n=2)]; amniotic band syndrome (n=3); and anomalies of the focal spine [block vertebra (n=1), hemivertebra (n=1)]. Among these 50 cases, five [polydactyly (n=1), syndactyly (n=2) and curly toe (n=2) were confirmed by postnatal physical evaluation, two (focal spine anomalies) were diagnosed after postnatal radiologic examination, and the remaining 43 were proven at autopsy. For each condition, we describe the prenatal sonographic findings, and include a brief review

  20. Classification guide: Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games classification guide is designed to provide National Paralympic Committees (NPCs) and International Federations (IFs) with information about the classification policies and procedures that will apply to the Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games.

  1. Titanium isotopic anomalies in meteorites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemeyer, S.; Lugmair, G.W.

    1984-01-01

    High-precision analyses of Ti are reported for samples from a variety of meteorite classes. The expanded data base for Allende inclusions still shows Ti isotope anomalies in every inclusion. All the coarse-grained inclusions give quite similar patterns, but fine-grained inclusions show more variable, and sometimes larger, anomalies. One inclusion, 3675A, was analyzed because others identified it as a possible 'FUN' inclusion due to its mass-fractionated Mg. This designation is supported by the significantly more complex Ti isotopic pattern for 3675A compared to all our other Allende inclusions. Available data fail to suggest that any particular Allende mineral phase, including a chromite-carbon fraction from an acid residue, is especially rich in anomalous Ti. We also find anomalous Ti in a bulk sample of a C1 chondrite and in matrix separates from C2 chondrites. The excesses of 50 Ti are smaller than for Allende inclusions, and subtle differences in Ti isotopic patterns tentatively suggest that parent materials for C1-C2 matrix and Allende inclusions are not directly related. Analyses of chondrules from unequilibrated ordinary chondrites did not yield clear evidence for anomalous Ti, but some 'larger than usual' deficits at 50/46 give encouragement for future work in this direction. (author)

  2. A study of dental anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Sook; Kim, Jae Duck [Dept. of Oral Radiology, College of Dentistry, Chosun University, Kwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    1993-08-15

    The purpose of this study was to find out the prevalence of dental anomalies in 600 normal persons (male:363, female:237) at age 14 to 39 years, through history taking, oral examination, and radiographic observations of subjects. The obtained results were as follows: 1. The prevalence of individual dental anomalies were as follows; Congenitally missing teeth 7%; supernumerary teeth 1.33%; ectopic eruption 8.50%; transposition 0.33%; rotation 23.67%; microdontia 11.16% (peg lateral is 5.33%; third molar 5.83%); prolonged retention of deciduous teeth 1.33%; crowding 49.83%; and spacing 15.17%. 2. Alterations in numbers of teeth : The most frequently missing teeth were mandibular lateral incisors, followed by mandibular second premolars and maxillary second premolars. In numbers of congenitally missing teeth per person, 52.38% had one missing tooth and 30.95% had two missing teeth. In supernumerary teeth, there was higher rate in male than in female. Most supernumerary teeth were mesiodens of median area in maxilla and the eruption pattern of that teeth generally was unerupted state. 3. In transposition, exchange of position of teeth involved the canine and first premolar. 4. Congenital missing rate of permanent successors in prolonged retention of deciduous teeth was 69.23%. 5. Crowding and spacing had respectively higher rate in mandible and in maxilla.

  3. Axial anomalies of Lifshitz fermions

    CERN Document Server

    Bakas, Ioannis

    2011-01-01

    We compute the axial anomaly of a Lifshitz fermion theory with anisotropic scaling z=3 which is minimally coupled to geometry in 3+1 space-time dimensions. We find that the result is identical to the relativistic case using path integral methods. An independent verification is provided by showing with spectral methods that the eta-invariant of the Dirac and Lifshitz fermion operators in three dimensions are equal. Thus, by the integrated form of the anomaly, the index of the Dirac operator still accounts for the possible breakdown of chiral symmetry in non-relativistic theories of gravity. We apply this framework to the recently constructed gravitational instanton backgrounds of Horava-Lifshitz theory and find that the index is non-zero provided that the space-time foliation admits leaves with harmonic spinors. Using Hitchin's construction of harmonic spinors on Berger spheres, we obtain explicit results for the index of the fermion operator on all such gravitational instanton backgrounds with SU(2)xU(1) isom...

  4. A study of dental anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Sook; Kim, Jae Duck

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to find out the prevalence of dental anomalies in 600 normal persons (male:363, female:237) at age 14 to 39 years, through history taking, oral examination, and radiographic observations of subjects. The obtained results were as follows: 1. The prevalence of individual dental anomalies were as follows; Congenitally missing teeth 7%; supernumerary teeth 1.33%; ectopic eruption 8.50%; transposition 0.33%; rotation 23.67%; microdontia 11.16% (peg lateral is 5.33%; third molar 5.83%); prolonged retention of deciduous teeth 1.33%; crowding 49.83%; and spacing 15.17%. 2. Alterations in numbers of teeth : The most frequently missing teeth were mandibular lateral incisors, followed by mandibular second premolars and maxillary second premolars. In numbers of congenitally missing teeth per person, 52.38% had one missing tooth and 30.95% had two missing teeth. In supernumerary teeth, there was higher rate in male than in female. Most supernumerary teeth were mesiodens of median area in maxilla and the eruption pattern of that teeth generally was unerupted state. 3. In transposition, exchange of position of teeth involved the canine and first premolar. 4. Congenital missing rate of permanent successors in prolonged retention of deciduous teeth was 69.23%. 5. Crowding and spacing had respectively higher rate in mandible and in maxilla.

  5. Changes in winter warming events in the Nordic Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Isaksen, Ketil; Haugen, Jan Erik; Bjerke, Jarle Werner; Tømmervik, Hans

    2015-04-01

    In recent years winter warming events are frequently reported from Arctic areas. Extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, cause severe ecological disturbance and great challenges for Arctic infrastructure. For example, the formation of ground ice due to winter rain or melting prevents reindeer from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The infrastructure may be affected by avalanches and floods resulting from intense snowmelt. The aim of our analysis is to study changes in warm spells during winter in the Nordic Arctic Region, here defined as the regions in Norway, Sweden and Finland north of the Arctic circle (66.5°N), including the Arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Within this study area we have selected the longest available high quality observation series with daily temperature and precipitation. For studying future climate we use available regionally downscaled scenarios. We analyse three time periods: 1) the past 50-100 years, 2) the present (last 15 years, 2000-2014) and 3) the future (next 50-100 years). We define an extended winter season (October-April) and further divide it into three subseasons: 1) Early winter (October and November), 2) Mid-winter (December, January and February) and 3) Late-winter (March and April). We identify warm spells using two different classification criteria: a) days with temperature above 0°C (the melting temperature); and b) days with temperature in excess of the 90th percentile of the 1985-2014 temperature for each subseason. Both wet and dry warm spells are analysed. We compare the results for the mainland stations (maritime and inland stations) with the Arctic islands. All stations have very high frequency of warm weather events in the period 1930-1940s and for the last 15 years (2000-2014). For the most recent period the largest increase in number of warm spells are observed at the northernmost stations. We also find a continuation of this

  6. Formation and Dissolution of γ’ Precipitates in IN792 Superalloy at Elevated Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Strunz

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation of γ’ phase in nickel-base superalloy IN792-5A was studied using in-situ Small Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS. It was found that additional precipitates are formed after reheating above 600 °C when the material is previously fast cooled (100 K/min from 900 °C. The size distribution and volume fraction of the additional γ’ precipitates as well as of the already present medium-size precipitates in dependence on temperature were evaluated. The small precipitates can influence mechanical properties of the alloy, which exhibits an anomaly in the temperature dependence of the yield stress. Volume fraction of all precipitate populations above 900 °C was estimated as well.

  7. Circle compactification and 't Hooft anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanizaki, Yuya; Misumi, Tatsuhiro; Sakai, Norisuke

    2017-12-01

    Anomaly matching constrains low-energy physics of strongly-coupled field theories, but it is not useful at finite temperature due to contamination from high-energy states. The known exception is an 't Hooft anomaly involving one-form symmetries as in pure SU( N ) Yang-Mills theory at θ = π. Recent development about large- N volume independence, however, gives us a circumstantial evidence that 't Hooft anomalies can also remain under circle compactifications in some theories without one-form symmetries. We develop a systematic procedure for deriving an 't Hooft anomaly of the circle-compactified theory starting from the anomaly of the original uncompactified theory without one-form symmetries, where the twisted boundary condition for the compactified direction plays a pivotal role. As an application, we consider Z_N -twisted C{P}^{N-1} sigma model and massless Z_N -QCD, and compute their anomalies explicitly.

  8. Global anomalies in chiral lattice gauge theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, O.

    2000-07-01

    We study global anomalies in a new approach to chiral gauge theories on the lattice, which is based on the Ginsparg-Wilson relation. In this approach, global anomalies make it impossible to define consistently a fermionic measure for the functional integral. We show that a global anomaly occurs in an SU(2) theory if the fundamental representation is used for the fermion fields. The generalization to higher representations is also discussed. In addition we establish a close relation between global anomalies and the spectral flow of the Dirac operator and employ it in a numerical computation to prove the existence of the global SU(2) anomaly in a different way. This method is inspired by an earlier work of Witten who first discovered this type of anomalies in continuum field theory. (orig.)

  9. Leadership in American Indian Communities: Winter Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metoyer, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Winter lessons, or stories told in the winter, were one of the ways in which tribal elders instructed and directed young men and women in the proper ways to assume leadership responsibilities. Winter lessons stressed the appropriate relationship between the leader and the community. The intent was to remember the power and purpose of that…

  10. The significant reduction of precipitation in Southern China during the Chinese Spring Festival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Gong, D.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term observational data from 2001 to 2012 over 339 stations were used to analyze the precipitation in southern China during the Chinese Spring Festival (CSF). It reveals both the precipitation frequency and precipitation intensity have a significant reduction around CSF holiday. From the second day to the sixth day after the Lunar New Year's Day, the daily mean precipitation frequency anomaly is -9%. At the same time, more than 90% stations in the study area have negative anomalies. The precipitation intensity has a continuous reduction from day 2 to day 4, which is up to 2mm in day 3. Other relevant variables, such as relative humidity and sunshine duration, have corresponding results to the precipitation's reduction during CSF. Atmospheric water vapor field's change leads to the reduction phenomenon. We analyzed the circulation configuration using the ERA-interim reanalysis data. It shows the anomalous north wind decrease the vapor and further affects the precipitation during the CSF period. The pollutants' concentration decreased around CSF, which may influence the meteorological field and lead to the anomalous north wind. Based on the S2S (sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project) data, we calculated the circulation forecast difference to CSF period between clean days and polluted days. The result proves the north wind's existence and suggests that the aerosol decrease because of human activity may be partly responsible for the precipitation reduction during CSF.

  11. The "Parity" Anomaly On An Unorientable Manifold

    OpenAIRE

    Witten, Edward

    2016-01-01

    The "parity" anomaly -- more accurately described as an anomaly in time-reversal or reflection symmetry -- arises in certain theories of fermions coupled to gauge fields and/or gravity in a spacetime of odd dimension. This anomaly has traditionally been studied on orientable manifolds only, but recent developments involving topological superconductors have made it clear that one can get more information by asking what happens on an unorientable manifold. In this paper, we give a full descript...

  12. Monitoring of congenital anomalies in Latvia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irisa Zilie; ViIIeruša, Anita; Gissler, Mika

    2014-09-01

    This study provides a description and analysis of characteristics of the monitoring system for congenital anomalies at birth and prevalence trends in Latvia using retrospective analysis of congenital anomalies at birth with cross-sectional data on prevalence (national data from Latvia, 2000-2010). There are three main monitoring systems on congenital anomalies among newborns and infants: the Medical Birth Register with data on live births with one or more congenital anomalies at birth, the Register on Congenital Anomalies with genetically approved cases for live births and the National Causes of Death Register with data on stillbirths. Methodological problems were analysed by calculating different prevalence rates. The main outcome measures are as follows: prevalence rate, live birth prevalence rate, major congenital anomalies live birth prevalence rate, and stillbirth rate. The live birth period prevalence was 319.7/10,000 live births, and the majoir congenital anomalies live birth prevalence was 211.4/10,000. The period total prevalence rate of births was.323.7/10,000 live births and stillbirths. The stillbirth rate due to congenital anomalies was 6.1/10,000 live and stillbirths. The live birth prevalence with congenital anomalies decreased slightly from the year 2000 tothe year 2010. The present system of congenital anomaly registration requires improvements for better completeness. Latvia should use the experience.of Nordic countries and introduce a mother's and children's identification number to the Medical Birth Register. It would be helpful to link the information from hospitals and perinatal centres together to validate the congenital anomaly diagnoses of newborns after their discharge from the maternity unit. The monitoring system should also include information on pregnancies with congenital anomalies which do not end in birth, especially terminations of pregnancy.

  13. Associated anomalies in cases with esophageal atresia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, Claude; Alembik, Yves; Dott, Beatrice; Roth, Marie-Paule

    2017-08-01

    Esophageal atresia (EA) is a common type of congenital anomaly. The etiology of esophageal atresia is unclear and its pathogenesis is controversial. Infants with esophageal atresia often have other non-EA associated congenital anomalies. The purpose of this investigation was to assess the prevalence and the types of these associated anomalies in a defined population. The associated anomalies in cases with EA were collected in all livebirths, stillbirths, and terminations of pregnancy during 29 years in 387,067 consecutive births in the area covered by our population-based registry of congenital malformations. Of the 116 cases with esophageal atresia, representing a prevalence of 2.99 per 10,000, 54 (46.6%) had associated anomalies. There were 9 (7.8%) cases with chromosomal abnormalities including 6 trisomies 18, and 20 (17.2%) nonchromosomal recognized dysmorphic conditions including 12 cases with VACTERL association and 2 cases with CHARGE syndrome. Twenty five (21.6%) of the cases had multiple congenital anomalies (MCA). Anomalies in the cardiovascular, the digestive, the urogenital, the musculoskeletal, and the central nervous systems were the most common other anomalies. The anomalies associated with esophageal atresia could be classified into a recognizable malformation syndrome or pattern in 29 out of 54 cases (53.7%). This study included special strengths: each affected child was examined by a geneticist, all elective terminations were ascertained, and the surveillance for anomalies was continued until 2 years of age. In conclusion the overall prevalence of associated anomalies, which was close to one in two cases, emphasizes the need for a thorough investigation of cases with EA. A routine screening for other anomalies may be considered in infants and in fetuses with EA. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Network anomaly detection a machine learning perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharyya, Dhruba Kumar

    2013-01-01

    With the rapid rise in the ubiquity and sophistication of Internet technology and the accompanying growth in the number of network attacks, network intrusion detection has become increasingly important. Anomaly-based network intrusion detection refers to finding exceptional or nonconforming patterns in network traffic data compared to normal behavior. Finding these anomalies has extensive applications in areas such as cyber security, credit card and insurance fraud detection, and military surveillance for enemy activities. Network Anomaly Detection: A Machine Learning Perspective presents mach

  15. On Newton-Cartan trace anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auzzi, Roberto; Baiguera, Stefano; Nardelli, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    We classify the trace anomaly for parity-invariant non-relativistic Schrödinger theories in 2+1 dimensions coupled to background Newton-Cartan gravity. The general anomaly structure looks very different from the one in the z=2 Lifshitz theories. The type A content of the anomaly is remarkably identical to that of the relativistic 3+1 dimensional case, suggesting the conjecture that an a-theorem should exist also in the Newton-Cartan context.

  16. Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

    2018-04-01

    Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

  17. Anomaly Detection from Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiandong Guo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Hyperspectral remote sensing imagery contains much more information in the spectral domain than does multispectral imagery. The consecutive and abundant spectral signals provide a great potential for classification and anomaly detection. In this study, two real hyperspectral data sets were used for anomaly detection. One data set was an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS data covering the post-attack World Trade Center (WTC and anomalies are fire spots. The other data set called SpecTIR contained fabric panels as anomalies compared to their background. Existing anomaly detection algorithms including the Reed–Xiaoli detector (RXD, the blocked adaptive computation efficient outlier nominator (BACON, the random selection based anomaly detector (RSAD, the weighted-RXD (W-RXD, and the probabilistic anomaly detector (PAD are reviewed here. The RXD generally sets strict assumptions to the background, which cannot be met in many scenarios, while BACON, RSAD, and W-RXD employ strategies to optimize the estimation of background information. The PAD firstly estimates both background information and anomaly information and then uses the information to conduct anomaly detection. Here, the BACON, RSAD, W-RXD, and PAD outperformed the RXD in terms of detection accuracy, and W-RXD and PAD required less time than BACON and RSAD.

  18. Tectonically Induced Anomalies Without Large Earthquake Occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Zheming; Wang, Guangcai; Liu, Chenglong; Che, Yongtai

    2017-06-01

    In this study, we documented a case involving large-scale macroscopic anomalies in the Xichang area, southwestern Sichuan Province, China, from May to June of 2002, after which no major earthquake occurred. During our field survey in 2002, we found that the timing of the high-frequency occurrence of groundwater anomalies was in good agreement with those of animal anomalies. Spatially, the groundwater and animal anomalies were distributed along the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone. Furthermore, the groundwater level was elevated in the northwest part of the Zemuhe fault and depressed in the southeast part of the Zemuhe fault zone, with a border somewhere between Puge and Ningnan Counties. Combined with microscopic groundwater, geodetic and seismic activity data, we infer that the anomalies in the Xichang area were the result of increasing tectonic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan block. In addition, groundwater data may be used as a good indicator of tectonic activity. This case tells us that there is no direct relationship between an earthquake and these anomalies. In most cases, the vast majority of the anomalies, including microscopic and macroscopic anomalies, are caused by tectonic activity. That is, these anomalies could occur under the effects of tectonic activity, but they do not necessarily relate to the occurrence of earthquakes.

  19. MRI of central nervous system anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izawa, M.; Oikawa, A.; Matoba, A.

    1987-05-01

    MRI was very useful in the evaluation of congenital anomalies of central nervous system as well as other nervous system disease with three-dimensional spatial resolution. We had experienced MRI of central nervous system anomalies, demonstrated characterisitic findings in each anomaly. MRI is useful to observe the coronal, horizontal and sagittal images of the brain and spinal cord in order to discuss the etiological mechanisms of spinal dysraphysm and its associated anomalies. In case of spina bifida cystica MRI was available to decide operative indication for radical operation and tetherd cord developed from postoperative scar or accompanied intraspinal lesions.

  20. Downscaling atmospheric patterns to multi-site precipitation amounts in southern Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Christensen, O.B.; Rasmussen, P.F.

    2010-01-01

    depend on current atmospheric information. The gridded atmospheric fields are summarized through the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique. SVD is applied to geopotential height and relative humidity at several pressure levels, to identify their principal spatial patterns co......A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is applied for downscaling atmospheric synoptic patterns to winter multi-site daily precipitation amounts. The implemented NHMM assumes precipitation to be conditional on a hidden weather state that follows a Markov chain, whose transition probabilities...

  1. Vegetation structure of the biomes in southwestern Africa And their precipitation patterns

    OpenAIRE

    OKITSU, Susumu

    2010-01-01

    Southwestern Africa contains diverse biomes. The amount of the annual precipitation of this area has been traditionally thought to be the most important controlling factor to the differentiation of the biomes. However, this territory experiences the summer rain type and winter rain type. Those two different precipitation patterns should result in the different mechanisms to control the distribution of the biomes. This study intends to clarify the relationships between the distribution of the ...

  2. Precipitation variability over UAE and global SST teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niranjan Kumar, K.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2014-09-01

    The present study investigates the role of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the precipitation variability over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and adjoining Middle East regions. Monthly precipitation data (1981-2011) assembled from rain gauge stations located in the UAE along with other global reanalysis data sets are used to explore the teleconnections. It is observed that statistically significant correlations exist between precipitation over the UAE and the equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. Canonical correlation analysis between the monthly winter precipitation and the global SSTs (60°S to 60°N) reveals that the major portion of the precipitation variability is influenced by equatorial Pacific SSTs associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The moisture budget analysis reveals the distinct change in the anomalous circulation (cyclonic and anticyclonic) associated with strong convergence and divergence of the moisture flux during the warm and cold phases of ENSO, respectively. Further, the composite analysis of upper troposheric zonal wind shows the equatorward shift (~2° latitude) of subtropical jet stream (STJ) over the Middle East during the warm phase of ENSO affecting the weather in the UAE. The findings suggest that the teleconnection linking ENSO and the precipitation over UAE and adjoining regions is mediated by the response of STJ to Rossby waves.

  3. Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany--winter season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-05-01

    Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

  4. Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-05-01

    Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

  5. Summer hot snaps and winter conditions: modelling white syndrome outbreaks on Great Barrier Reef corals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott F Heron

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are under increasing pressure in a changing climate, one such threat being more frequent and destructive outbreaks of coral diseases. Thermal stress from rising temperatures has been implicated as a causal factor in disease outbreaks observed on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and elsewhere in the world. Here, we examine seasonal effects of satellite-derived temperature on the abundance of coral diseases known as white syndromes on the Great Barrier Reef, considering both warm stress during summer and deviations from mean temperatures during the preceding winter. We found a high correlation (r(2 = 0.953 between summer warm thermal anomalies (Hot Snap and disease abundance during outbreak events. Inclusion of thermal conditions during the preceding winter revealed that a significant reduction in disease outbreaks occurred following especially cold winters (Cold Snap, potentially related to a reduction in pathogen loading. Furthermore, mild winters (i.e., neither excessively cool nor warm frequently preceded disease outbreaks. In contrast, disease outbreaks did not typically occur following warm winters, potentially because of increased disease resistance of the coral host. Understanding the balance between the effects of warm and cold winters on disease outbreak will be important in a warming climate. Combining the influence of winter and summer thermal effects resulted in an algorithm that yields both a Seasonal Outlook of disease risk at the conclusion of winter and near real-time monitoring of Outbreak Risk during summer. This satellite-derived system can provide coral reef managers with an assessment of risk three-to-six months in advance of the summer season that can then be refined using near-real-time summer observations. This system can enhance the capacity of managers to prepare for and respond to possible disease outbreaks and focus research efforts to increase understanding of environmental impacts on coral disease in

  6. Atmospheric synoptic conditions of snow precipitation in East Antarctica using ice core and reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarchilli, Claudio; Ciardini, Virginia; Bonazza, Mattia; Frezzotti, Massimo; Stenni, Barbara

    2014-05-01

    In the framework of the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences (IPCS) initiatives the GV7 site (70°41' S - 158°51' E) in East Antarctica was chosen as the new drilling site for the Italian contribution to the understanding of the climatic variability in the last 2000 years (IPICS 2k Array). Water stable isotopes and snow accumulation (SMB) values from a shallow firn core, obtained at GV7 during the 2001-2002 International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE) traverse, are analyzed and compared with different meteorological model output in order to characterize the atmospheric synoptic conditions driving precipitation events at the site. On annual basis, ECMWF +24h forecasted snowfalls (SF) seem to well reproduce GV7 SMB values trend for the period from 1980 to 2005. Calculated air mass back-trajectories show that Eastern Indian - Western Pacific oceans represent the main moisture path toward the site during autumn - winter season. Analysis of the ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential height field (GP500) anomalies shows that atmospheric blocking events developing between 130° E and 150° W at high latitudes drive the GV7 SMB by blocking zonal flow and conveying warm and moist deep air masses from ocean into the continental interior. On inter-annual basis, The SF variability over GV7 region follows the temporal oscillation of the third CEOF mode (CEOF3 10% of the total explained variance) of a combined complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) performed over GP500 and SF field. The CEOF3 highlights an oscillating feature, with wavenumber 2, in GP500 field over the Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Oceans and propagating westward. The pattern is deeply correlated with the Indian Dipole Oscillation and ENSO and their associated quasi-stationary Rossby waves propagating from the lower toward the higher latitudes.

  7. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

  8. Precipitation formation from orographic cloud seeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jeffrey R; Friedrich, Katja; Tessendorf, Sarah A; Rauber, Robert M; Geerts, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy M; Xue, Lulin; Kunkel, Melvin L; Blestrud, Derek R

    2018-02-06

    Throughout the western United States and other semiarid mountainous regions across the globe, water supplies are fed primarily through the melting of snowpack. Growing populations place higher demands on water, while warmer winters and earlier springs reduce its supply. Water managers are tantalized by the prospect of cloud seeding as a way to increase winter snowfall, thereby shifting the balance between water supply and demand. Little direct scientific evidence exists that confirms even the basic physical hypothesis upon which cloud seeding relies. The intent of glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds is to introduce aerosol into a cloud to alter the natural development of cloud particles and enhance wintertime precipitation in a targeted region. The hypothesized chain of events begins with the introduction of silver iodide aerosol into cloud regions containing supercooled liquid water, leading to the nucleation of ice crystals, followed by ice particle growth to sizes sufficiently large such that snow falls to the ground. Despite numerous experiments spanning several decades, no direct observations of this process exist. Here, measurements from radars and aircraft-mounted cloud physics probes are presented that together show the initiation, growth, and fallout to the mountain surface of ice crystals resulting from glaciogenic seeding. These data, by themselves, do not address the question of cloud seeding efficacy, but rather form a critical set of observations necessary for such investigations. These observations are unambiguous and provide details of the physical chain of events following the introduction of glaciogenic cloud seeding aerosol into supercooled liquid orographic clouds.

  9. GRAVITY ANOMALIES OF THE MOON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. G. Pugacheva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The source of gravity anomalies of the Moon are large mascons with a high mass concentration at a depth of volcanic plains and lunar Maria. New data on the gravitational field of the Moon were obtained from two Grail spacecrafts. The article presents the data of physical and mechanical properties of the surface soil layer of the lunar Maria and gives an assessment of the chemical composition of the soil. There have been calculated heterogeneity parameters of the surface macro-relief of the lunar Maria: albedo, soil density, average grain diameter of the particles forming the surface layer and the volume fraction occupied by particles. It can be assumed that mascons include rich KREEP rocks with a high content of thorium and iron oxide. Formation of mascons is connected with intensive development of basaltic volcanism on the Moon in the early periods of its existence.

  10. The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

    2018-02-01

    The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.

  11. Tau anomaly and vectorlike families

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babu, K.S.; Pati, J.C.; Zhang, X.

    1992-01-01

    The implications of a recently indicated increase in τ lifetime are discussed. It is stressed that the available experimental constraints (from δρ,ε 3 , and N ν , etc.) are satisfied most naturally if the indicated τ anomaly is attributed to the mixing of the τ family with a heavy vectorlike family Q L, R ' with masses ∼200 GeV to 2 TeV, which is a doublet of SU(2) R and singlet of SU(2) L , rather than with a heavy fourth family with standard chiral couplings. L↔R symmetry would imply that Q L, R ' is accompanied by the parity-conjugate family Q L, R which is a doublet of SU(2) L and singlet of SU(2) R . Two such vectorlike families, together with an increase in τ τ , are, in fact, crucial predictions of a recently proposed supersymmetric composite model that possesses many attractive features, in particular, explanations of the origin of diverse scales and family replication. In the context of such a model, it is noted that 3 an increase in τ τ due to mixing involving vectorlike families will necessarily imply a correlated decrease in neutrino counting N ν from the CERN e + e- collider LEP from 3. Such a decrease in N ν would be absent, however, if the τ anomaly is attributed to a mixing involving a standard fourth family with chiral couplings. Because of the seesaw nature of the mass matrix of the three chiral and two vectorlike families, that arises naturally in the model, departures from universality in the first two families as well as in bar bb and τ + τ - channels (linked to down flavors) are strongly suppressed, in accord with observations

  12. Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication is archived and available from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This publication contains hourly precipitation...

  13. Relationships between the climate change and the grain filling of winter wheat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang, Z.; Jiang, D.

    2016-01-01

    The present study is based on the material in a grain filling rate experiment of winter wheat and hourly weather data organised by Xinghua city of Jiangsu Province. The aims are to objectively evaluate the possible influences of the temperature, precipitation, sunshine at the different time of the same day on the grain filling rate of winter wheat. The grain filling rate evaluation model of climate change is firstly developed, and then, the model calculation results are compared with the observed data. The along the changes of the microclimate, changes of the grain filling rate of winter wheat, which is not same in the gradual, rapid and slow increase stages. The changes in grain filling rate of winter wheat, which were caused by variations of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration, showed periodic fluctuation. Variation in temperature resulted in 1.36 g d/sup -1/(10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change; variation in precipitation resulted in -1.35 g d/sup -1/. (10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change; and variation in sunshine duration resulted in 0.07 g d/sup -1/ (10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change. Three samples showed a grain filling rate change of 0.08 g d/sup -1/(10a)/sup -1/. These findings indicate that the increase in temperature and sunshine duration caused the elevation of grain filling rate, whereas the increase in precipitation decreased the grain filling rate. Therefore, monitoring and predication capability of Meteorological disasters, such as drought caused by high temperature, should be strengthened to ensure the favourable weather condition and improve the grain filling rate through scientific methods such as artificial precipitation. (author)

  14. Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Waliser, Duane E.; Ralph, F. Martin; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

  15. A case study of a low lightning rate storm during the Florida winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Earle R.; Watson, Andrew I.; Maier, Launa M.; Jafferis, William; Weems, John

    1989-01-01

    Meteorological and cloud electrical data collected during a winter storm on January 21, 1988 at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida are presented. A pronounced transition from area-integrated convergence to divergence with associated peak electrical activity was observed, which appears to be characteristic for both the summer and the winter storms at KSC. The mesoscale precipitation region behind the squall line was substantially electrified over an area far larger than the KSC complex. It is noted that, in such a situation, the accumulated electric charge and peak lightning currents may be an order of magnitude greater than those encountered in isolated summer thunderstorms, and the lightning hazard is correspondingly greater.

  16. Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2018-01-01

    Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

  17. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    2013-12-01

    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  18. Hawking radiation of black rings from anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Bin; He Wei

    2008-01-01

    We derive Hawking radiation of five-dimensional black rings from gauge and gravitational anomalies using the method proposed by Robinson and Wilczek. We find, as in the black hole case, that the problem could reduce to a (1+1)-dimensional field theory and the anomalies result in correct Hawking temperature for neutral, dipole and charged black rings

  19. Praenatalt diagnosticeret hydronefrose og andre urologiske anomalier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortes, Dina; Jørgensen, Troels Munch; Rittig, Søren

    2006-01-01

    By renal ultrasound examination, urological anomalies may be demonstrated in 1-2% of fetuses and in about 0.5% of newborns. Boys have about twice the frequency of girls. Surgical treatment is indicated in about one fourth of these urological anomalies. If all pregnant women in Denmark were to hav...

  20. Anomalies of Nuclear Criticality, Revision 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, E. D.; Prichard, Andrew W.; Durst, Bonita E.; Erickson, David; Puigh, Raymond J.

    2010-02-19

    This report is revision 6 of the Anomalies of Nuclear Criticality. This report is required reading for the training of criticality professionals in many organizations both nationally and internationally. This report describes many different classes of nuclear criticality anomalies that are different than expected.

  1. Socio-occupational status and congenital anomalies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varela, María M Morales-Suárez; Nohr, Ellen Aagaard; Llopis-González, Agustin

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the association between socio-occupational status and the frequency of major congenital anomalies in offspring.......The aim of this study is to investigate the association between socio-occupational status and the frequency of major congenital anomalies in offspring....

  2. Improved prenatal detection of chromosomal anomalies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frøslev-Friis, Christina; Hjort-Pedersen, Karina; Henriques, Carsten U

    2011-01-01

    Prenatal screening for karyotype anomalies takes place in most European countries. In Denmark, the screening method was changed in 2005. The aim of this study was to study the trends in prevalence and prenatal detection rates of chromosome anomalies and Down syndrome (DS) over a 22-year period....

  3. Interpretation of Aeromagnetic Anomalies over Abeokuta, Southwest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    of the bodies producing the magnetic anomaly. ∑. 1. Where. L = length of the cross—section of the anomaly n = harmonic number of the partial wave. N = number of data point real path partial amplitude imaginary path of FFT. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION. Table 1 summarizes depths values of various anomalous sources.

  4. Remarks on global anomalies in RCFT orientifolds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gato-Rivera, B. [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands); Instituto de Matematicas y Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain); Schellekens, A.N. [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Instituto de Matematicas y Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain) and IMAPP, Radboud Universiteit, Nijmegen (Netherlands)]. E-mail: t58@nikhef.nl

    2006-01-26

    We check the list of supersymmetric standard model orientifold spectra of Dijkstra, Huiszoon and Schellekens for the presence of global anomalies, using probe branes. Absence of global anomalies is found to impose strong constraints, but in nearly all cases they are automatically satisfied by the solutions to the tadpole cancellation conditions.

  5. Effect of Arctic Geoengineering on Tropical Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalam, Aditya; Govindasamy, Bala; Modak, Angshuman

    2017-04-01

    Arctic geoengineering wherein sunlight absorption is reduced only in the Arctic has been suggested as a remedial measure to counteract the on-going rapid climate change in the Arctic. Several modeling studies show that Arctic geoengineering can minify Arctic warming but it would shift the ITCZ southward. In this study, we investigate and quantify the implications of this ITCZ shift for the global monsoon regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). In our Arctic geoengineering simulation, a prescription of 11 Mt of sulfate aerosols in the Arctic stratosphere, nearly cancels the Arctic warming (6 K) due to a CO2 doubling but it shifts ITCZ southward by 1.5⁰, resulting in a decrease/increase in annual mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH)/Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon regions by up to -12/+17%. Polar geoengineering, where sulfate aerosols are prescribed in both Arctic and Antarctic, reduces the southward ITCZ shift to 0.15⁰ and correspondingly reduces the precipitation changes in the monsoon regions keeping the annual mean changes within ±7 %. ITCZ shift due to Global geoengineering, where aerosols are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and keeps precipitation changes in most monsoon regions within ±2 %. Global geoengineering also cancels the Arctic warming appreciably and restores the Arctic sea-ice extent. Further, the zonal wind anomaly and stratospheric water vapour increase due to Global geoengineering are much smaller than Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Therefore, we conclude that Global geoengineering is a better choice than regional geoengineering proposals such as the Arctic and Polar geoengineering if the goal is to alleviate climate change in the Arctic.

  6. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    temperature anomalies for the above regions respectively. An analysis has shown that most of the short duration anomalies (i.e., anomalies with periods less than 4 months) are driven by the surface heat fluxes. The medium duration anomalies (i.e., anomalies...

  7. Regional magnetic anomaly constraints on continental rifting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonfrese, R. R. B.; Hinze, W. J.; Olivier, R.; Bentley, C. R.

    1985-01-01

    Radially polarized MAGSAT anomalies of North and South America, Europe, Africa, India, Australia and Antarctica demonstrate remarkably detailed correlation of regional magnetic lithospheric sources across rifted margins when plotted on a reconstruction of Pangea. These major magnetic features apparently preserve their integrity until a superimposed metamorphoric event alters the magnitude and pattern of the anomalies. The longevity of continental scale magnetic anomalies contrasts markedly with that of regional gravity anomalies which tend to reflect predominantly isostatic adjustments associated with neo-tectonism. First observed as a result of NASA's magnetic satellite programs, these anomalies provide new and fundamental constraints on the geologic evolution and dynamics of the continents and oceans. Accordingly, satellite magnetic observations provide a further tool for investigating continental drift to compliment other lines of evidence in paleoclimatology, paleontology, paleomagnetism, and studies of the radiometric ages and geometric fit of the continents.

  8. Intracranial developmental venous anomaly: is it asymptomatic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puente, A Bolívar; de Asís Bravo Rodríguez, F; Bravo Rey, I; Romero, E Roldán

    2018-03-16

    Intracranial developmental venous anomalies are the most common vascular malformation. In the immense majority of cases, these anomalies are asymptomatic and discovered incidentally, and they are considered benign. Very exceptionally, however, they can cause neurological symptoms. In this article, we present three cases of patients with developmental venous anomalies that presented with different symptoms owing to complications derived from altered venous drainage. These anomalies were located in the left insula, right temporal lobe, and cerebellum. The exceptionality of the cases presented as well as of the images associated, which show the mechanism through which the symptoms developed, lies in the low incidence of symptomatic developmental venous anomalies reported in the literature. Copyright © 2018 SERAM. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. An impactor origin for lunar magnetic anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, Mark A; Weiss, Benjamin P; Stewart, Sarah T

    2012-03-09

    The Moon possesses strong magnetic anomalies that are enigmatic given the weak magnetism of lunar rocks. We show that the most prominent grouping of anomalies can be explained by highly magnetic extralunar materials from the projectile that formed the largest and oldest impact crater on the Moon: the South Pole-Aitken basin. The distribution of projectile materials from a model oblique impact coincides with the distribution of magnetic anomalies surrounding this basin, and the magnetic properties of these materials can account for the intensity of the observed anomalies if they were magnetized in a core dynamo field. Distal ejecta from this event can explain the origin of isolated magnetic anomalies far from this basin.

  10. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  11. Study of accuracy of precipitation measurements using simulation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Zoltán; Lajos, Tamás; Morvai, Krisztián

    2013-04-01

    Hungarian Meteorological Service1 Budapest University of Technology and Economics2 Precipitation is one of the the most important meteorological parameters describing the state of the climate and to get correct information from trends, accurate measurements of precipitation is very important. The problem is that the precipitation measurements are affected by systematic errors leading to an underestimation of actual precipitation which errors vary by type of precipitaion and gauge type. It is well known that the wind speed is the most important enviromental factor that contributes to the underestimation of actual precipitation, especially for solid precipitation. To study and correct the errors of precipitation measurements there are two basic possibilities: · Use of results and conclusion of International Precipitation Measurements Intercomparisons; · To build standard reference gauges (DFIR, pit gauge) and make own investigation; In 1999 at the HMS we tried to achieve own investigation and built standard reference gauges But the cost-benefit ratio in case of snow (use of DFIR) was very bad (we had several winters without significant amount of snow, while the state of DFIR was continously falling) Due to the problem mentioned above there was need for new approximation that was the modelling made by Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Fluid Mechanics using the FLUENT 6.2 model. The ANSYS Fluent package is featured fluid dynamics solution for modelling flow and other related physical phenomena. It provides the tools needed to describe atmospheric processes, design and optimize new equipment. The CFD package includes solvers that accurately simulate behaviour of the broad range of flows that from single-phase to multi-phase. The questions we wanted to get answer to are as follows: · How do the different types of gauges deform the airflow around themselves? · Try to give quantitative estimation of wind induced error. · How does the use

  12. Changes in Spatiotemporal Precipitation Patterns in Changing Climate Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Won; Stein, Michael L.; Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, V. Rao; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-12-01

    Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (2-3%/K in the global average). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitation over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 100 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.

  13. KIDNEY ANOMALIES: HORSE SHOE KIDNEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemalatha

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION : Horse Shoe Kidney was first recognized during an autopsy by De Carpi in 1521. This anomaly consists of two distinct renal masses lying vertically on either side of the midline and connected at their respective lower poles by a parenchymatous or fibrous isthmus that crosses the mid pl ane of the body. This isthmus lies at the level of 4th lumbar vertebra just beneath the origin of inferior mesenteric artery in about 40% of cases. Fusion of upper poles instead of the lower poles results in a n inverted horse Shoe Kidney which constitute 5 - 10% of ail Horse - Shoe kidneys , (i.e. in 95% of HSK , fusion is at lower poles. HSK is found more commonly in males by a 2 : 1 margin. AIM OF STUDY : An attempt has been made to know the various anomalies . The study has been taken up with the fond hope of helping the clinician , sonologist , and surgeons during their routine work. To apply this knowledge to the incoming post graduates in their research works. EMBRIOLOGICAL BASIS & KDNEY : The abnormality originates between 4th and 6th weeks of gestation , after the ureteral bud has entered the renal blastema. Boyden (1931 postulated that at the 14mm stage (4.5 weeks the developing metanephric masses lie close to one another , any disturbance in their relationship may result in joining at their inferior poles. A slight alteration in the position of the umbilical or common iliac artery could change the orientation of migrating kidneys thus leading to contact and fusion. In 1941 Dees (Nation 1945 , Bell 1946 , Gleen 1959 , Campbell 1970 described horse - shoe kidney di sease occurrence in 0.25% of the population or about 1 in 400. OBSERVATION : In the present study 176 specimens of kidneys were studied out of which 40 were fetal specimens and the rest were adult specimens consisting of both cadaveric and sonograms. The ad ult specimens from cadavers were 76 and 60 from sonograms. MATERIAL & METHODS : Abdomen is opened ; superficial viscera and

  14. The Precipitation Response Over the Continental United States to Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

    2013-01-01

    The dominant pattern of annual mean SST variability in the Pacific (in its cold phase) produces pronounced precipitation deficits over the continental United States (U.S.) throughout the annual cycle. This study investigates the physical and dynamical processes through which the cold Pacific pattern affects the U.S. precipitation, particularly the causes for the peak dry impacts in fall, as well as the nature of the differences between the summer and fall responses. Results, based on observations and reanalyses, show that the peak precipitation deficit over the U.S. during fall is primarily due to reduced atmospheric moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern U.S., and secondarily due to a reduction in local evaporation from land-atmosphere feedback. The former is associated with a strong and systematic low-level northeasterly flow anomaly over the southeastern U.S. that counteracts the northwest branch of the climatological flow associated with the north Atlantic subtropical high. The above northeasterly anomaly is maintained by both diabatic heating anomalies in the nearby Intra-American Seas and diabatic cooling anomalies in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, the modest summertime precipitation deficit over the U.S. is mainly the result of local land-atmosphere feedback; the rather weak and disorganized atmospheric circulation anomalies over and to the south of the U.S. make little contribution. An evaluation of NSIPP-1 AGCM simulations shows it to be deficient in simulating the warm season tropical convection responses over the Intra-American Seas to the cold Pacific pattern and thereby the precipitation responses over the U.S., a problem that appears to be common to many AGCMs.

  15. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Document Server

    Corinne Pralavorio

    2016-01-01

    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  16. Anomaly Detection in Dynamic Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, Melissa [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-10-14

    Anomaly detection in dynamic communication networks has many important security applications. These networks can be extremely large and so detecting any changes in their structure can be computationally challenging; hence, computationally fast, parallelisable methods for monitoring the network are paramount. For this reason the methods presented here use independent node and edge based models to detect locally anomalous substructures within communication networks. As a first stage, the aim is to detect changes in the data streams arising from node or edge communications. Throughout the thesis simple, conjugate Bayesian models for counting processes are used to model these data streams. A second stage of analysis can then be performed on a much reduced subset of the network comprising nodes and edges which have been identified as potentially anomalous in the first stage. The first method assumes communications in a network arise from an inhomogeneous Poisson process with piecewise constant intensity. Anomaly detection is then treated as a changepoint problem on the intensities. The changepoint model is extended to incorporate seasonal behavior inherent in communication networks. This seasonal behavior is also viewed as a changepoint problem acting on a piecewise constant Poisson process. In a static time frame, inference is made on this extended model via a Gibbs sampling strategy. In a sequential time frame, where the data arrive as a stream, a novel, fast Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is introduced to sample from the sequence of posterior distributions of the change points over time. A second method is considered for monitoring communications in a large scale computer network. The usage patterns in these types of networks are very bursty in nature and don’t fit a Poisson process model. For tractable inference, discrete time models are considered, where the data are aggregated into discrete time periods and probability models are fitted to the

  17. DISSOLUTION OF LANTHANUM FLUORIDE PRECIPITATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, B.A.

    1959-11-10

    A plutonium separatory ore concentration procedure involving the use of a fluoride type of carrier is presented. An improvement is given in the derivation step in the process for plutonium recovery by carrier precipitation of plutonium values from solution with a lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitate and subsequent derivation from the resulting plutonium bearing carrier precipitate of an aqueous acidic plutonium-containing solution. The carrier precipitate is contacted with a concentrated aqueous solution of potassium carbonate to effect dissolution therein of at least a part of the precipitate, including the plutonium values. Any remaining precipitate is separated from the resulting solution and dissolves in an aqueous solution containing at least 20% by weight of potassium carbonate. The reacting solutions are combined, and an alkali metal hydroxide added to a concentration of at least 2N to precipitate lanthanum hydroxide concomitantly carrying plutonium values.

  18. Changing characteristics and spatial differentiation of spring precipitation in Southwest China during 1961–2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Hong-Lan; Zhang Qiang; Zhang Jun-Guo; Hu Wen-Chao; Guo Jun-Qin; Wang Sheng

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we analyze spring precipitation from 92 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 to understand temporal–spatial variability and change of spring precipitation over Southwest China. Various analysis methods are used for different purposes, including empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and rotated EOF (REOF) for analyzing spatial structure change of precipitation anomaly, and the Mann–Kendall testing method to determine whether there were abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the precipitation has a domain uniform structure; the second is dominated by a spatial dipole; and the third contains five variability centers. The 2000s is the decade with the largest amount of precipitation while the 1990s is the decade with the smallest amount of precipitation. The year-to-year difference of that region is large: the amount of the largest precipitation year doubles that of the smallest precipitation year. We also find that spring precipitation in Southwest China experienced a few abrupt changes: a sudden increase at 1966, a sudden decrease at 1979, and a sudden increase at 1995. We speculate that the spring precipitation will increase gradually in the next two decades. (paper)

  19. Differential imprints of different ENSO flavors in global patterns of seasonal precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) phases is known to trigger climatic responses in various parts of the Earth, an effect commonly attributed to teleconnectivity. A series of studies has demonstrated that El Nino periods exhibits a relatively broad variety of spatial patterns, which can be classified into two main flavors termed East Pacific (EP, canonical) and Central Pacific (CP, Modoki) El Nino, and that both subtypes can trigger distinct climatic responses like droughts vs. precipitation increases at the regional level. More recently, a similar discrimination of La Nina periods into two different flavors has been reported, and it is reasonable to assume that these different expressions are equally accompanied by differential responses of regional climate variability in particularly affected regions. In this work, we study in great detail the imprints of both types of El Nino and La Nina periods in extremal seasonal precipitation sums during fall (SON), winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) around the peak time of the corresponding ENSO phase. For this purpose, we employ a recently developed objective classification of El Nino and La Nina periods into their two respective flavors based on global teleconnectivity patterns in daily surface air temperature anomalies as captured by the associated climate network representations (Wiedermann et al., 2016). In order to study the statistical relevance of the timing of different El Nino and La Nina types on that of seasonal precipitation extremes around the globe (according to the GPCC data set as a reference), we utilize event coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2016), a new powerful yet conceptually simple and intuitive statistical tool that allows quantifying the degree of simultaneity of distinct events in pairs of time series. Our results provide a comprehensive overview on ENSO related imprints in regional seasonal precipitation extremes. We demonstrate that key

  20. Meridional distribution and seasonal variation of stable oxygen isotope ratio of precipitation in the Southern Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayo Nakamura

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The stable oxygen isotope ratio(δ^O in precipitation is known to have important meridional and seasonal variations, but there are almost no measurements of δ^O in precipitation over polar oceans. The present research took advantage of 4 opportunities for in situ observations in summer and winter at high latitudes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, we analyzed samples of precipitation at Syowa Station in 2008 to obtain year-round data. Based on these data, we consider the meridional and seasonal variations of δ^O in precipitation over the Southern Ocean. In general, δ^O decreases with increasing latitude, and is lower in winter than in summer. The latitude gradient is stronger in winter. At 60°S, δ^O is -5.4‰ and -11.3‰ in summer and winter, respectively, while the corresponding figures at 66°S are -10.5‰ and -20.8‰. These results will help us understand the mechanisms of the salinity distribution and its variation in the Antarctic Ocean.

  1. Aerosol loading impact on Asian monsoon precipitation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Riccardo; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Costabile, Francesca; Cairo, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    Solar light absorption by aerosols such as black carbon and dust assume a key role in driving the precipitation patterns in the Indian subcontinent. The aerosols stack up against the foothills of the Himalayas in the pre-monsoon season and several studies have already demonstrated that this can cause precipitation anomalies during summer. Despite its great significance in climate change studies, the link between absorbing aerosols loading and precipitation patterns remains highly uncertain. The main challenge for this kind of studies is to find consistent and reliable datasets. Several aerosol time series are available from satellite and ground based instruments and some precipitation datasets from satellite sensors, but they all have different time/spatial resolution and they use different assumptions for estimating the parameter of interest. We have used the aerosol estimations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and validated them against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the Indian area. The precipitation has been analyzed by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimations and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). From our results it is evident the discrepancy between the aerosol loading on the area of interest from the OMI, AATSR, and MODIS, but even between 3 different algorithms applied to the MODIS data. This uncertainty does not allow to clearly distinguishing high aerosol loading years from low aerosol loading years except in a couple of cases where all the estimations agree. Similar issues are also present in the precipitation estimations from TRMM and MERRA-2. However, all the aerosol datasets agree in defining couples of consecutive years with a large gradient of aerosol loading. Based on this assumption we have compared the precipitation anomalies and

  2. Data Mining for Anomaly Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Gautam; Mack, Daniel; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar; Bharadwaj, Raj

    2013-01-01

    The Vehicle Integrated Prognostics Reasoner (VIPR) program describes methods for enhanced diagnostics as well as a prognostic extension to current state of art Aircraft Diagnostic and Maintenance System (ADMS). VIPR introduced a new anomaly detection function for discovering previously undetected and undocumented situations, where there are clear deviations from nominal behavior. Once a baseline (nominal model of operations) is established, the detection and analysis is split between on-aircraft outlier generation and off-aircraft expert analysis to characterize and classify events that may not have been anticipated by individual system providers. Offline expert analysis is supported by data curation and data mining algorithms that can be applied in the contexts of supervised learning methods and unsupervised learning. In this report, we discuss efficient methods to implement the Kolmogorov complexity measure using compression algorithms, and run a systematic empirical analysis to determine the best compression measure. Our experiments established that the combination of the DZIP compression algorithm and CiDM distance measure provides the best results for capturing relevant properties of time series data encountered in aircraft operations. This combination was used as the basis for developing an unsupervised learning algorithm to define "nominal" flight segments using historical flight segments.

  3. Collie Eye Anomaly in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walser-Reinhardt, L; Hässig, M; Spiess, B

    2009-12-01

    In this retrospective study, the results of 3'527 eye examinations in 6 different breeds affected with Collie Eye Anomaly (CEA) over a period of 8 years (1999 - 2007) are described. CEA was divided into three main ophthalmoscopic features, a) choroidal hypoplasia (CRH), b) CRH and coloboma and c) coloboma alone. Of the 101 Smooth Collies 8.9 % showed signs of CRH, whereas 36.9 % of Rough Collies were affected with CRH, 2.8 % with CRH and coloboma and 0.38 % with coloboma alone. Choroidal hypoplasia was present in 13.1 %, CRH and coloboma in 1.8 % and coloboma alone in 0.2 % of the Shetland Sheepdogs. Only one Australian Shepherd dog had CRH, while 0.7 % of the Border Collies were affected with CRH. None of the Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers were affected with CEA. There were no statistically significant differences in the occurrence of CEA between males and females, nor was there any relation between coat colors. Significant differences could be shown between dogs younger or older than 8 weeks at first examination. CEA was more often diagnosed in dogs younger than 8 weeks within the Rough Collie and Shetland Sheepdog.

  4. Anomalies, Unitarity and Quantum Irreversibility

    CERN Document Server

    Anselmi, D

    1999-01-01

    The trace anomaly in external gravity is the sum of three terms at criticality: the square of the Weyl tensor, the Euler density and Box R, with coefficients, properly normalized, called c, a and a', the latter being ambiguously defined by an additive constant. Unitarity and positivity properties of the induced actions allow us to show that the total RG flows of a and a' are equal and therefore the a'-ambiguity can be consistently removed through the identification a'=a. The picture that emerges clarifies several long-standing issues. The interplay between unitarity and renormalization implies that the flux of the renormalization group is irreversible. A monotonically decreasing a-function interpolating between the appropriate values is naturally provided by a'. The total a-flow is expressed non-perturbatively as the invariant (i.e. scheme-independent) area of the graph of the beta function between the fixed points. We test this prediction to the fourth loop order in perturbation theory, in QCD with Nf ~< ...

  5. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  6. Congenital basis of posterior fossa anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotes, Claudia; Bonfante, Eliana; Lazor, Jillian; Jadhav, Siddharth; Caldas, Maria; Swischuk, Leonard

    2015-01-01

    The classification of posterior fossa congenital anomalies has been a controversial topic. Advances in genetics and imaging have allowed a better understanding of the embryologic development of these abnormalities. A new classification schema correlates the embryologic, morphologic, and genetic bases of these anomalies in order to better distinguish and describe them. Although they provide a better understanding of the clinical aspects and genetics of these disorders, it is crucial for the radiologist to be able to diagnose the congenital posterior fossa anomalies based on their morphology, since neuroimaging is usually the initial step when these disorders are suspected. We divide the most common posterior fossa congenital anomalies into two groups: 1) hindbrain malformations, including diseases with cerebellar or vermian agenesis, aplasia or hypoplasia and cystic posterior fossa anomalies; and 2) cranial vault malformations. In addition, we will review the embryologic development of the posterior fossa and, from the perspective of embryonic development, will describe the imaging appearance of congenital posterior fossa anomalies. Knowledge of the developmental bases of these malformations facilitates detection of the morphological changes identified on imaging, allowing accurate differentiation and diagnosis of congenital posterior fossa anomalies. PMID:26246090

  7. MR imaging of paediatric uterovaginal anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, I.M.; Babyn, P.; Oliver, G.D.

    1999-01-01

    Background. Transabdominal ultrasound (US) has not proved completely reliable in Muellerian duct anomalies. One study has shown it useful in obstructed uterovaginal anomalies. We are unaware of a study that has used endovaginal ultrasound in children to investigate uterovaginal anomalies. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is now gaining wide acceptance in imaging congenital abnormalities of the genital tract. Objective. To identify the problems and potential pitfalls of using MRI to evaluate the female genital tract in paediatric patients. Materials and methods. A retrospective review of the MRI scans of 19 patients, aged 3 months to 19 years (mean 14 years), with uterovaginal anomalies. Results. The uterovaginal anomalies were categorised into three groups: (1) congenital absence of the Muellerian ducts, or the Mayer-Rokitansky-Kuster-Hauser syndrome (n = 7), (2) disorders of vertical fusion (n = 2) and (3) disorders of lateral fusion (n = 10). Conclusions. MRI is a reliable method for evaluating paediatric uterovaginal anomalies, but should be analysed in conjunction with other imaging modalities (US and genitography). Previous surgery makes interpretation more difficult and, if possible, MRI should be carried out prior to any surgery. An accurate MRI examination can be extremely helpful prior to surgery and it is important for the radiologist to have knowledge of how these complex anomalies are managed and what pitfalls to avoid. (orig.)

  8. Thermal Infrared Anomalies of Several Strong Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congxin Wei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1 There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of “time-frequency relative power spectrum.” (2 There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3 Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4 Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  9. Thermal Infrared Anomalies of Several Strong Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Congxin; Guo, Xiao; Qin, Manzhong

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of “time-frequency relative power spectrum.” (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting. PMID:24222728

  10. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

    1997-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

  11. Predictability of summer extreme precipitation days over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Wang, Bin

    2017-08-01

    Extreme precipitation events have severe impacts on human activity and natural environment, but prediction of extreme precipitation events remains a considerable challenge. The present study aims to explore the sources of predictability and to estimate the predictability of the summer extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over eastern China. Based on the region- and season-dependent variability of EPDs, all stations over eastern China are divided into two domains: South China (SC) and northern China (NC). Two domain-averaged EPDs indices during their local high EPDs seasons (May-June for SC and July-August for NC) are therefore defined. The simultaneous lower boundary anomalies associated with each EPDs index are examined, and we find: (a) the increased EPDs over SC are related to a rapid decaying El Nino and controlled by Philippine Sea anticyclone anomalies in May-June; (b) the increased EPDs over NC are accompanied by a developing La Nina and anomalous zonal sea level pressure contrast between the western North Pacific subtropical high and East Asian low in July-August. Tracking back the origins of these boundary anomalies, one or two physically meaningful predictors are detected for each regional EPDs index. The causative relationships between the predictors and the corresponding EPDs over each region are discussed using lead-lag correlation analyses. Using these selected predictors, a set of Physics-based Empirical models is derived. The 13-year (2001-2013) independent forecast shows significant temporal correlation skills of 0.60 and 0.74 for the EPDs index of SC and NC, respectively, providing an estimation of the predictability for summer EPDs over eastern China.

  12. Analysis of renal anomalies in VACTERL association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Bridget K; Khromykh, Alina; Martinez, Ariel F; Carney, Tyler; Hadley, Donald W; Solomon, Benjamin D

    2014-10-01

    VACTERL association refers to a combination of congenital anomalies that can include: vertebral anomalies, anal atresia, cardiac malformations, tracheo-esophageal fistula with esophageal atresia, renal anomalies (typically structural renal anomalies), and limb anomalies. We conducted a description of a case series to characterize renal findings in a cohort of patients with VACTERL association. Out of the overall cohort, 48 patients (with at least three component features of VACTERL and who had abdominal ultrasound performed) met criteria for analysis. Four other patients were additionally analyzed separately, with the hypothesis that subtle renal system anomalies may occur in patients who would not otherwise meet criteria for VACTERL association. Thirty-three (69%) of the 48 patients had a clinical manifestation affecting the renal system. The most common renal manifestation (RM) was vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in addition to a structural defect (present in 27%), followed by unilateral renal agenesis (24%), and then dysplastic/multicystic kidneys or duplicated collected system (18% for each). Twenty-two (88%) of the 25 patients with a structural RM had an associated anorectal malformation. Individuals with either isolated lower anatomic anomalies, or both upper and lower anatomic anomalies were not statistically more likely to have a structural renal defect than those with isolated upper anatomic anomalies (p = 0.22, p = 0.284, respectively). Given the high prevalence of isolated VUR in our cohort, we recommend a screening VCUG or other imaging modality be obtained to evaluate for VUR if initial renal ultrasound shows evidence of obstruction or renal scarring, as well as ongoing evaluation of renal health. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. On the statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere in winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Graf, H.F.

    1994-01-01

    The associated anomaly patterns of the stratospheric geopotential height field and the tropospheric geopotential and temperature height fields of the northern hemisphere are determined applying the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). With this linear multivariate technique the coupled modes of variability of time series of two fields are isolated in the EOF space. The one data set is the 50 hPa geopotential field, the other set consists of different height fields of the tropospheric pressure levels (200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa) and the temperature of the 850 hPa pressure level. For the winter months (December, January, February) two natural coupled modes, a barotropic and a baroclinic one, of linear relationship between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are found. The baroclinic mode describes a connection between the strength of the stratospheric cyclonic winter vortex and the tropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The corresponding temperature pattern for an anomalously strong stratospheric cyclonic vortex is characterized by positive temperature anomalies over higher latitudes of Eurasia. These 'Winter Warmings' are observed e.g. after violent volcanic eruptions. The barotropic mode is characterized by a zonal wave number one in the lower stratosphere and by a PNA-like pattern in the troposphere. It was shown by Labitzke and van Loon (1987) that this mode can be enhanced e.g. by El Ninos via the intensification of the Aleutian low. (orig.)

  14. Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

    2018-01-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

  15. Evaluation of IMERG and TRMM 3B43 Monthly Precipitation Products over Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengrui Chen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available As the successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission significantly improves the spatial resolution of precipitation estimates from 0.25° to 0.1°. The present study analyzed the error structures of Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG monthly precipitation products over Mainland China from March 2014 to February 2015 using gauge measurements at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, IMERG products were also compared with TRMM 3B43 products. The results show that: (1 overall, IMERG can capture the spatial patterns of precipitation over China well. It performs a little better than TRMM 3B43 at seasonal and monthly scales; (2 the performance of IMERG varies greatly spatially and temporally. IMERG performs better at low latitudes than at middle latitudes, and shows worse performance in winter than at other times; (3 compared with TRMM 3B43, IMERG significantly improves the estimation accuracy of precipitation over the Xinjiang region and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, especially over the former where IMERG increases Pearson correlation coefficient by 0.18 and decreases root-mean-square error by 54.47 mm for annual precipitation estimates. However, most IMERG products over these areas are unreliable; and (4 IMERG shows poor performance in winter as TRMM 3B43 even if GPM improved its ability to sense frozen precipitation. Most of them over North China are unreliable during this period.

  16. Simple recipe for holographic Weyl anomaly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bugini, F. [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Concepción,Casilla 160-C, Concepción (Chile); Diaz, D.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Físicas, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Andres Bello,Autopista Concepción-Talcahuano 7100, Talcahuano (Chile)

    2017-04-20

    We propose a recipe — arguably the simplest — to compute the holographic type-B Weyl anomaly for general higher-derivative gravity in asymptotically AdS spacetimes. In 5 and 7 dimensions we identify a suitable basis of curvature invariants that allows to read off easily, without any further computation, the Weyl anomaly coefficients of the dual CFT. We tabulate the contributions from quadratic, cubic and quartic purely algebraic curvature invariants and also from terms involving derivatives of the curvature. We provide few examples, where the anomaly coefficients have been obtained by other means, to illustrate the effectiveness of our prescription.

  17. Praenatalt diagnosticeret hydronefrose og andre urologiske anomalier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortes, Dina; Jørgensen, Troels Munch; Rittig, Søren

    2006-01-01

    By renal ultrasound examination, urological anomalies may be demonstrated in 1-2% of fetuses and in about 0.5% of newborns. Boys have about twice the frequency of girls. Surgical treatment is indicated in about one fourth of these urological anomalies. If all pregnant women in Denmark were to have...... fetal ultrasound examination of the kidneys and the urinary tract, about 70 children would be born each year with a prenatally diagnosed urological anomaly for which surgical procedure is or will be indicated. This paper provides Danish guidelines for prenatal diagnosis, follow-up and intervention...

  18. Hybrid anomaly-gravity mediation with flavor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, Christian

    2011-01-01

    We study models with contributions of similar size to the soft masses from anomaly-and gravity mediation, thereby curing the tachyonic slepton problem of anomaly mediation. A possible origin of this hybrid setup in a 5-dimensional brane world is briefly discussed. The absence of excessive flavor violation is explained by alignment. The gravitino can be heavy enough so that the gravitino problem of supersymmetric theories with leptogenesis is avoided. The model has a characteristic signature: It predicts the distinctive gaugino mass pattern of anomaly mediation and, at the same time, O(1) slepton mass splittings.

  19. Spatio-temporal analysis of the accuracy of tropical multisatellite precipitation analysis 3B42 precipitation data in mid-high latitudes of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yancong Cai

    Full Text Available Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS. This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998-2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%. Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these

  20. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Monthly Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), which is operated by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (National Meteorological Service of Germany), is a component of...

  1. Using EVT for Geological Anomaly Design and Its Application in Identifying Anomalies in Mining Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feilong Qin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A geological anomaly is the basis of mineral deposit prediction. Through the study of the knowledge and characteristics of geological anomalies, the category of extreme value theory (EVT to which a geological anomaly belongs can be determined. Associating the principle of the EVT and ensuring the methods of the shape parameter and scale parameter for the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD, the methods to select the threshold of the GPD can be studied. This paper designs a new algorithm called the EVT model of geological anomaly. These study data on Cu and Au originate from 26 exploration lines of the Jiguanzui Cu-Au mining area in Hubei, China. The proposed EVT model of the geological anomaly is applied to identify anomalies in the Jiguanzui Cu-Au mining area. The results show that the model can effectively identify the geological anomaly region of Cu and Au. The anomaly region of Cu and Au is consistent with the range of ore bodies of actual engineering exploration. Therefore, the EVT model of the geological anomaly can effectively identify anomalies, and it has a high indicating function with respect to ore prospecting.

  2. The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Hoskins, Brian; Shepherd, Ted

    2016-04-01

    Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region which may have large socio-economic impacts. However, there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected precipitation reduction and this limits the possibility to inform effective adaptation planning. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the precipitation change and the time of emergence of the Mediterranean precipitation response. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. We also find that the precipitation response to climate change might already emerge from internal variability by 2025 relative to 1960-1990 according to the climate models with a large circulation response. This implies that it might soon be possible to test model projections using observations. Finally, some of the mechanisms which are important for the Mediterranean circulation response in the CMIP5 models are discussed.

  3. Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; Selten, F M

    2014-05-22

    Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

  4. Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

    2017-12-01

    For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

  5. Isotopes in Greenland Precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Anne-Katrine

    the Arctic Ocean. A comprehensive database is created based on ice core and weather station data from Greenland within the period 1890-2014. Present day annual and seasonal mean values are computed for 326 locations in Greenland. Parameterization of the spatial distribution of temperature and δ18O are used...... to create the first observational-based gridded map of δ18O of precipitation for Greenland and the first gridded map of Greenland temperature, where ice core borehole temperatures are included. The database and gridded maps create a framework for conducting model-data comparison of isotope-enabled GCMs......) Constructing a new Greenland database of observations and present-day ice core measurements, and (3) Performance test of isotope-enabled CAM5 for Greenland. The recent decades of rapid Arctic sea ice decline are used as a basis for an observational-based model experiment using the isotope-enabled CAM model 3...

  6. [Effects of irrigation with mine wastewater on physiological characters and heavy metals accumulation of winter wheat].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Shou-Chen; Ma, Shou-Tian; Shao, Yun; Jiang, Li-Na; Li, Chun-Xi

    2013-11-01

    A pot experiment was conducted to study the effects of irrigation with mine wastewater on the physiological characters and heavy metals accumulation of winter wheat. Three treatments were installed, i. e., irrigation with coal-washing wastewater (T1), irrigation with coal-washing wastewater after its precipitation (T2), and irrigation with coal gangue leacheate (T3), taking the well water irrigation as the control (CK). The plants were irrigated with mine wastewater after the turning green stage. Irrigation with mine wastewater had negative effects on the winter wheat growth and grain yield. At anthesis stage, the leaf area, dry mass per stem, root activity, and net photosynthetic rate of winter wheat in treatments T1, T2, and T3 were significantly lower than those in CK (P wheat under mine wastewater irrigation were significantly higher than those in CK, suggesting that the irrigation with mine wastewater could result in the heavy metals accumulation in wheat grain.

  7. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milovanović, Boško; Schuster, Phillip; Radovanović, Milan; Vakanjac, Vesna Ristić; Schneider, Christoph

    2017-10-01

    Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961-2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen's estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between -5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between -8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from -3 to +3 mm/decade.

  8. Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2018-01-01

    Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these

  9. Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of

  10. Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, R.; Wang, D.

    2017-12-01

    A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

  11. A gridded dataset of hourly precipitation in Germany: Its construction, climatology and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Paulat

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A so-called disaggregation technique is used to combine daily rain gauge measurements and hourly radar composites in order to produce a dataset of hourly precipitation in Germany on a grid with a horizontal resolution of 7 km for the years 2001-2004. This state-of-the-art observation-based dataset of precipitation has a high temporal and spatial resolution and will be extended continuously during the upcoming years. Limitations of its quality, which are due to intrinsic problems with observing the highly variable field of precipitation, are discussed and quantified where possible. The dataset offers novel possibilities to investigate the climatology of precipitation and to verify precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. The frequency of hourly precipitation in Germany above the detection limit of 0.1 mm/h amounts to 10-30 % in winter, with clear maxima in the mountainous regions, and to 6-20 % in summer, when the spatial variability is considerably reduced. The 95th percentile of the frequency distribution is significantly larger in summer than in winter, with local maxima in the mountainous regions in winter, and in the Alpine Foreland and upper Elbe catchment in summer. It is shown that the operational model COSMO-7 with a horizontal resolution of 7 km captures the geographical distribution of the frequency and of the 95th percentile of hourly precipitation in Germany very well. In contrast, the model is not able to realistically simulate the diurnal cycle of precipitation in any region of Germany during summer.

  12. Progress in modeling asphaltene precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yarranton, H.W.; Satyro, M.A. [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary (Canada); Taylor, S.D. [DBR Technology Center, Schlumberger (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    In the oil industry, asphaltene precipitation may happen when heavy oils are in contact with a solvent, crude oils are blended or when light oils containing asphaltenes are depressurized. Asphaltene precipitation has proven challenging to predict and the aim of this paper is to evaluate 2 different approaches for asphaltene precipitation modeling: regular solution and equation of state. Two case were studied: an Athabasca bitumen diluted with n-alkane and a depressurized Gulf of Mexico crude oil and both models were applied to each case. Results showed that both thermodynamic models are, to a limited extend, suitable for asphaltene precipitation prediction but they do not offer a correct prediction at low asphaltene concentrations and the equation of state cannot predict asphaltene precipitation from depressurized crude oils. This study showed the limits of current models in predicting precipitation of asphaltene and provided a trick to overcome these deficiencies; further work should be undertaken to develop a consistent approach.

  13. El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R.

    2017-12-01

    Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

  14. El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

    2017-07-01

    Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

  15. Change in the relationship between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and boreal summer precipitation over Central China in the late 1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ruowen; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Tianyu; He, Shengping

    2017-09-01

    Recent study revealed a close connection between the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) and boreal summer precipitation over Central China (SPCC). This study further revealed a strengthening of the ASM-SPCC relationship around the late 1990s. It is found that the relationship between the ASM and the SPCC during 1979-1997 (1998-2014) relationship is statistically insignificant (significant). Further analysis indicated that during 1998-2014, the weakened ASM is concurrent with significant positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which could persist into the following boreal summer and further lead to intensified East Asian summer monsoon, strengthened western North Pacific subtropical high, and anomalous ascending motion over Central China. Consequently, more moisture is transported from the western Pacific northward to Central China where significant anomalous convergence appears. Therefore, the ASM could potentially influence the SPCC during 1998-2014. By contrast, the ASM-related SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies in boreal winter are statistically insignificant during 1979-1997. Such an interdecadal change might be attributed to the interdecadal warming that occurred in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea around the late 1990s. This study might be useful for the prediction of the SPCC.

  16. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    KAUST Repository

    Chevuturi, A.

    2014-12-19

    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  17. The transport mechanisms of 222Rn in soil at Tateishi as an anomaly spot in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iskandar, D.; Iida, T.; Yamazawa, H.; Moriizumi, J.; Koarashi, J.; Yamasoto, K.; Yamasaki, K.; Shimo, M.; Tsujimoto, T.; Ishikawa, S.; Fukuda, M.; Kojima, H.

    2005-01-01

    The 222 Rn concentration profiles in soil have been measured at an anomaly spot in Tateishi, Japan. In winter, the concentrations were low and showed a negative gradient with depth, but in other seasons, the concentration had both positive and negative gradients with depth, and dramatically changed by time. On the assumption that there was ventilation in deep layers and with driving forces of wind and temperatures, these phenomena were successfully explained. This finding would contribute to a numerical model for 222 Rn transport in soil

  18. Multimodel probabilistic prediction of 2 m-temperature anomalies on the monthly timescale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrone, Alfonso; Mastrangelo, Daniele; Malguzzi, Piero

    2017-05-01

    The 2 m-temperature anomalies from the reforecasts of the CNR-ISAC and ECMWF monthly prediction systems have been combined in a multimodel super-ensemble. Tercile probability predictions obtained from the multimodel have been constructed using direct model outputs (DMO) and model output statistics (MOS), like logistic and nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression, for the 1990-2010 winter seasons. Verification with ERA-Interim reanalyses indicates that logistic regression gives the best results in terms of ranked probability skill scores (RPSS) and reliability diagrams for low-medium forecast probabilities. Also, it is argued that the logistic regression would not yield further improvements if a larger dataset was used.

  19. Deconstruction and reconstruction of an anomaly

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Engelmann, Dirk; Strobel, M.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 76, č. 2 (2012), s. 678-689 ISSN 0899-8256 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : anomalies * false consensus * information processing Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2012

  20. Quantum anomalies in nodal line semimetals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkov, A. A.

    2018-04-01

    Topological semimetals are a new class of condensed matter systems with nontrivial electronic structure topology. Their unusual observable properties may often be understood in terms of quantum anomalies. In particular, Weyl and Dirac semimetals, which have point band-touching nodes, are characterized by the chiral anomaly, which leads to the Fermi arc surface states, anomalous Hall effect, negative longitudinal magnetoresistance, and planar Hall effect. In this paper, we explore analogous phenomena in nodal line semimetals. We demonstrate that such semimetals realize a three-dimensional analog of the parity anomaly, which is a known property of two-dimensional Dirac semimetals arising, for example, on the surface of a three-dimensional topological insulator. We relate one of the characteristic properties of nodal line semimetals, namely, the drumhead surface states, to this anomaly, and derive the field theory, which encodes the corresponding anomalous response.

  1. Mexico Terrain Corrected Free Air Anomalies (97)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 2' gravity anomaly grid for Mexico, North-Central America and the Western Caribbean Sea is NOT the input data set used in the development of the MEXICO97 model....

  2. SEG US Bouguer Gravity Anomaly Grid

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The SEG gravity data are the product of the ad hoc Gravity Anomaly Map (GAM) Committee, sponsored by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and the U.S....

  3. Comparison of Unsupervised Anomaly Detection Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Several different unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms have been applied to Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data to serve the purpose of developing a...

  4. Major congenital anomalies in a Danish region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garne, Ester; Hansen, Anne Vinkel; Birkelund, Anne Sofie

    2014-01-01

    : diabetes, epilepsy, mental disorder, thyroid disease, asthma, or inflammatory bowel disease. Medication for these conditions accounted for 46% of maternal drug use. CONCLUSION: Maternal morbidity and use of potentially teratogenic medication have increased among congenital anomaly cases. Foetal and infant...

  5. Ionospheric Anomaly before Kyushu|Japan Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available GIM data released by IGS is used in the article and a new method of combining the Sliding Time Window Method and the Ionospheric TEC correlation analysis method of adjacent grid points is proposed to study the relationship between pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and earthquake. By analyzing the abnormal change of TEC in the 5 grid points around the seismic region, the abnormal change of ionospheric TEC is found before the earthquake and the correlation between the TEC sequences of lattice points is significantly affected by earthquake. Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of TEC anomaly, anomalies of 6 h, 12 h and 6 h were found near the epicenter three days before the earthquake. Finally, ionospheric tomographic technology is used to do tomographic inversion on electron density. And the distribution of the electron density in the ionospheric anomaly is further analyzed.

  6. Magnetic anomalies in Central Bengal fan

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, T.C.S.; Lakshminarayana, S.; Sarma, K.V.L.N.S.

    Total magnetic field anomalies recorded over the Central Bengal Fan are analysed and the depths to the magnetic basement are computed using the analytical signal and the Werner deconvolution methods. To the west and east of 85 degrees E...

  7. Quantum machine learning for quantum anomaly detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Nana; Rebentrost, Patrick

    2018-04-01

    Anomaly detection is used for identifying data that deviate from "normal" data patterns. Its usage on classical data finds diverse applications in many important areas such as finance, fraud detection, medical diagnoses, data cleaning, and surveillance. With the advent of quantum technologies, anomaly detection of quantum data, in the form of quantum states, may become an important component of quantum applications. Machine-learning algorithms are playing pivotal roles in anomaly detection using classical data. Two widely used algorithms are the kernel principal component analysis and the one-class support vector machine. We find corresponding quantum algorithms to detect anomalies in quantum states. We show that these two quantum algorithms can be performed using resources that are logarithmic in the dimensionality of quantum states. For pure quantum states, these resources can also be logarithmic in the number of quantum states used for training the machine-learning algorithm. This makes these algorithms potentially applicable to big quantum data applications.

  8. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

  9. Modeling of present and Eemian stable water isotopes in precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sjolte, Jesper

    interglacial. Present day boundary conditions were used except for the insolation and the SST patterns. The modeled summer temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere were found to match proxy data well, with the large summer insolation anomalies causing warmer summers than for present day. The peak summer......The subject of this thesis is the modeling of the isotopic temperature proxies d18O, dD and deuterium excess in precipitation. Two modeling studies were carried out, one using the regional climate model, and one using a global climate model. In the regional study the model was run for the period...... 1959 to 2001 using meteorological data and a domain including Greenland and the surrounding North Atlantic. The model was found to reproduce the observed seasonal variability of temperature and precipitation well. In comparison with ice core data from Greenland and observations from coastal stations...

  10. A combined statistical bias correction and stochastic downscaling method for precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Vrac, Mathieu; Widmann, Martin

    2017-03-01

    Much of our knowledge about future changes in precipitation relies on global (GCMs) and/or regional climate models (RCMs) that have resolutions which are much coarser than typical spatial scales of precipitation, particularly extremes. The major problems with these projections are both climate model biases and the gap between gridbox and point scale. Wong et al. (2014) developed a model to jointly bias correct and downscale precipitation at daily scales. This approach, however, relied on pairwise correspondence between predictor and predictand for calibration, and, thus, on nudged simulations which are rarely available. Here we present an extension of this approach that separates the downscaling from the bias correction and in principle is applicable to free-running GCMs/RCMs. In a first step, we bias correct RCM-simulated precipitation against gridded observations at the same scale using a parametric quantile mapping (QMgrid) approach. In a second step, we bridge the scale gap: we predict local variance employing a regression-based model with coarse-scale precipitation as a predictor. The regression model is calibrated between gridded and point-scale (station) observations. For this concept we present one specific implementation, although the optimal model may differ for each studied location. To correct the whole distribution including extreme tails we apply a mixture distribution of a gamma distribution for the precipitation mass and a generalized Pareto distribution for the extreme tail in the first step. For the second step a vector generalized linear gamma model is employed. For evaluation we adopt the perfect predictor experimental setup of VALUE. We also compare our method to the classical QM as it is usually applied, i.e., between RCM and point scale (QMpoint). Precipitation is in most cases improved by (parts of) our method across different European climates. The method generally performs better in summer than in winter and in winter best in the

  11. Electrical operation of electrostatic precipitators

    CERN Document Server

    Parker, Ken

    2003-01-01

    The electrostatic precipitator remains on of the most cost effective means of controlling the emission of particulates from most industrial processes. This book will be of interest to both users and suppliers of electrostatic precipitators as well as advanced students on environmental based courses. The author identifies the physical and engineering basis for the development of electrical equipment for electrostatic precipitators and thoroughly explores the technological factors which optimize the efficiency of the precipitator and hence minimize emissions, as well as future developments in th

  12. Measuring precipitation with a geolysimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Craig D.; van der Kamp, Garth; Arnold, Lauren; Schmidt, Randy

    2017-10-01

    Using the relationship between measured groundwater pressures in deep observation wells and total surface loading, a geological weighing lysimeter (geolysimeter) has the capability of measuring precipitation event totals independently of conventional precipitation gauge observations. Correlations between groundwater pressure change and event precipitation were observed at a co-located site near Duck Lake, SK, over a multi-year and multi-season period. Correlation coefficients (r2) varied from 0.99 for rainfall to 0.94 for snowfall. The geolysimeter was shown to underestimate rainfall by 7 % while overestimating snowfall by 9 % as compared to the unadjusted gauge precipitation. It is speculated that the underestimation of rainfall is due to unmeasured run-off and evapotranspiration within the response area of the geolysimeter during larger rainfall events, while the overestimation of snow is at least partially due to the systematic undercatch common to most precipitation gauges due to wind. Using recently developed transfer functions from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE), bias adjustments were applied to the Alter-shielded, Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge measurements of snowfall to mitigate wind-induced errors. The bias between the gauge and geolysimeter measurements was reduced to 3 %. This suggests that the geolysimeter is capable of accurately measuring solid precipitation and can be used as an independent and representative reference of true precipitation.

  13. Precipitation Measurement Missions Data Access

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data products are currently available from 1998 to the present. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission data...

  14. Conventional Chromosome Analysis of Fetuses with Central Nervous System Anomalies and Associated Anomalies: Is Anything Changed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emre Ekmekci

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Central nervous system (CNS abnormalities are often isolated but can accompany various genetic syndromes. In this study, we evaluated conventional karyotype results and associated findings of fetuses that were diagnosed with CNS abnormalities. Cases included in the study were diagnosed with fetal CNS anomalies and underwent conventional karyotyping. Conventional karyotype results of subjects were compared with karyotype results of fetal karyotyped patients as a result of maternal anxiety in a two-year period. In this period, 69 patients were diagnosed with fetal CNS anomalies and 64 of them underwent invasive fetal karyotyping. Of these, 32 patients had isolated CNS anomalies, while 32 were associated with other anomalies. There was no significant difference between karyotype results when compared with the control group (p = 0.76. Apart from some specific anomalies, the aneuploidy rate does not significantly differ between fetuses with CNS anomalies and the control group. Advanced genetic evaluation may provide additional diagnostic benefits, especially for this group.

  15. Conventional Chromosome Analysis of Fetuses with Central Nervous System Anomalies and Associated Anomalies: Is Anything Changed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekmekci, Emre; Demirel, Emine; Gencdal, Servet

    2018-02-06

    Central nervous system (CNS) abnormalities are often isolated but can accompany various genetic syndromes. In this study, we evaluated conventional karyotype results and associated findings of fetuses that were diagnosed with CNS abnormalities. Cases included in the study were diagnosed with fetal CNS anomalies and underwent conventional karyotyping. Conventional karyotype results of subjects were compared with karyotype results of fetal karyotyped patients as a result of maternal anxiety in a two-year period. In this period, 69 patients were diagnosed with fetal CNS anomalies and 64 of them underwent invasive fetal karyotyping. Of these, 32 patients had isolated CNS anomalies, while 32 were associated with other anomalies. There was no significant difference between karyotype results when compared with the control group ( p = 0.76). Apart from some specific anomalies, the aneuploidy rate does not significantly differ between fetuses with CNS anomalies and the control group. Advanced genetic evaluation may provide additional diagnostic benefits, especially for this group.

  16. Understanding water's anomalies with locally favored structures

    OpenAIRE

    Russo, John; Tanaka, Hajime

    2013-01-01

    Water is a complex structured liquid of hydrogen-bonded molecules that displays a surprising array of unusual properties, also known as water anomalies, the most famous being the density maximum at about $4^\\circ$C. The origin of these anomalies is still a matter of debate, and so far a quantitative description of water's phase behavior starting from the molecular arrangements is still missing. Here we provide a simple physical description from microscopic data obtained through computer simul...

  17. Anomalies hematologiques au cours des accidents vasculaires ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: En Côte d'Ivoire, les accidents vasculaires cérébraux (AVC) sont de plus en plus fréquents. Les anomalies biochimiques sont décrites au cours de ces pathologies. Cependant une composante hématologique est de plus en plus évoquée. L'objectif de cette étude a été de rapporter les anomalies ...

  18. An exceptional combination of congenital coronary anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharrat, Ilyes; El-Fassy, Eric; Amabile, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    We present a case of congenital coronary artery anomalies combining the absence of the circumflex artery, ectopic origins of left anterior descending and diagonal arteries and abnormal courses of these vessels. These rare anomalies were detected during an elective coronary angiography in a patient with stable angina that was related to significant stenosis of the posterolateral and middle right coronary artery. A computed tomography scanner with three-dimensional reconstructions confirmed the anatomy. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Hybrid anomaly-gravity mediation with flavor

    OpenAIRE

    Gross, Christian

    2011-01-01

    We study models with contributions of similar size to the soft masses from anomaly- and gravity mediation, thereby curing the tachyonic slepton problem of anomaly mediation. A possible origin of this hybrid setup in a 5-dimensional brane world is briefly discussed. The absence of excessive flavor violation is explained by alignment. The gravitino can be heavy enough so that the gravitino problem of supersymmetric theories with leptogenesis is avoided. The model has a characteristic signature:...

  20. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.