Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study

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Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin

2018-03-01

Previous studies have found that snow Eurasian anomalies in autumn can affect East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), but the mechanisms remain controversial and not well understood. The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect EAWM are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. The leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the October-November mean Eurasian snow cover is characterized by a uniform anomaly over a broad region of central Eurasia (40°N-65°N, 60°E-140°E). However, the results from a 150-ensemble mean simulation with snow depth anomaly specified in October and November reveal that the Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM. The excessive snow forcing can significantly enhance EAWM and the snowfall over the northwestern China and along the EAWM front zone stretching from the southeast China to Japan. The physical process involves a snow-monsoon feedback mechanism. The excessive autumn snow anomalies over the MPV region can persist into the following winter, and significantly enhance winter snow anomalies, which increase surface albedo, reduce incoming solar radiation and cool the boundary layer air, leading to an enhanced Mongolian High and a deepened East Asian trough. The latter, in turn, strengthen surface northwesterly winds, cooling East Asia and increasing snow accumulation over the MPV region and the southeastern China. The increased snow covers feedback to EAWM system through changing albedo, extending its influence southeastward. It is also found that the atmosphere-ocean coupling process can amplify the delayed influence of Eurasian snow mass anomaly on EAWM. The autumn surface albedo anomalies, however, do not have a lasting "memory" effect. Only if the albedo anomalies are artificially extended into December and January, will the EAWM be

Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

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Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

2018-05-01

Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

Effect of urbanization on the winter precipitation distribution in Beijing area

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2009-01-01

According to the urbanization extent of Beijing area, and with 1980 as a turning point, the duration from 1961 to 2000 is divided into two periods: one is defined as the slow urbanization period from 1961 to 1980, and other one as the fast urbanization period from 1981 to 2000. Based on the 40-year’s precipi-tation data of 14 standard weather stations in Beijing area, the effect of urbanization on precipitation distribution is studied. It is found that there has been a noticeable and systematic change of winter precipitation distribution pattern between these two periods in Beijing area: in the slow urbanization period, the precipitation in the southern part of Beijing is more than that in the northern part; but in the fast urbanization period, the precipitation distribution pattern is reverse, i.e. the precipitation in the southern part is less than that in the northern part; But in other seasons, the precipitation distribution pattern did not change remarkably in general. The possible cause resulting in the change of winter precipitation distribution pattern, might be that with urban area extension, the effects of "urban heat island" and "urban dry island" become more and more intensified, and increase hydrometeors evapo-ration below precipitable cloud, and then cause less precipitation received on the ground surface in the downtown and the southern part. It is also noteworthy to further research why the precipitation distri-bution pattern does not change systematically in other seasons except winter after intense urbaniza-tion in Beijing area.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula

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Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2013-04-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses, and are usually associated to deep low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months are fed by the Mediterranean. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and with relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2003, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands (Herrera et al., 2012), and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal (Belo-Pereira et al., 2011), with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. The daily precipitation data from 1950 to 2003 are compared with a 30-year (1961-90) precipitation climatology to achieve a daily normalized departure from the climatology. The magnitude of an event is given daily by an index that is obtained after multiplying 1) the area (in percentage) that has precipitation anomalies above two standard deviations by 2) the mean values of these anomalies over this area. With this criterion we are able to evaluate not only the spatial extent of the precipitation events but also their spatially integrated intensity. In addition, to stress out the hydrological responses to precipitation, rankings taking into account the sum of the normalized anomalies over different time periods (3 days, 5 days and 10 days) were also computed. Here different precipitation rankings will be presented considering the entire Iberian

Effects of El Nino Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Do-Woo [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Ki-Seon [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Typhoon Center, Jeju (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hi-Ryong [Pukyong National University, Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Nam-gu, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-04-15

This study compares the impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on precipitation over Korea during the boreal winters from 1954 to 2009. Precipitation in Korea tends to be equal to or greater than the normal level during an El Nino Modoki winter, whereas there is no significant change during an El Nino winter. Greater than normal precipitation during El Nino Modoki was also found over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China and much of southern Japan. The latitudes of these regions are 5-10 further north than in southern China, where precipitation increases during El Nino. The following two anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be causes that led to different precipitation distributions over East Asia. First, an atmospheric wave train in the lower troposphere, which propagated from the central tropical Pacific (cyclonic) through the southern Philippine Sea (anticyclonic) to East Asia (cyclonic), reached the southern China and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino, whereas it reached Korea and southern Japan during El Nino Modoki. Second, an anomalous local meridional circulation, which consists of air sinking in the tropics, flowing poleward in the lower troposphere, and rising in the subtropics, developed between the southern Philippine Sea and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino. During El Nino Modoki, however, this circulation expanded further to the north and was formed between the southern Philippine Sea and regions of Korea and southern Japan. (orig.)

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

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Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

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Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

Experimental electron density profiles of the mid-latitude lower ionosphere and winter anomaly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rapoport, Z.Ts.; Sinel'nikov, V.M.

1996-01-01

Summarized measurements of high-latitude electron density profiles of N e lower ionosphere, obtained at M100B meteorological rockets by precision method of coherent frequencies during 1979-1990 at the Volgograd test site (φ = 48 deg 41' N; λ = 44 deg 21 E), are presented. The profiles obtained represent average values of electron density at various altitudes of lower ionosphere (h = 70-100 km) during night and day time hours in winter and non winter periods. Increased electron density values during daytime hours in winter are related to winter anomaly phenomenon. 36 refs.; 1 fig

Modeling winter precipitation over the Juneau Icefield, Alaska, using a linear model of orographic precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Aurora; Hock, Regine; Schuler, Thomas V.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Pelto, Mauri; Aschwanden, Andy

2018-03-01

Assessing and modeling precipitation in mountainous areas remains a major challenge in glacier mass balance modeling. Observations are typically scarce and reanalysis data and similar climate products are too coarse to accurately capture orographic effects. Here we use the linear theory of orographic precipitation model (LT model) to downscale winter precipitation from a regional climate model over the Juneau Icefield, one of the largest ice masses in North America (>4000 km2), for the period 1979-2013. The LT model is physically-based yet computationally efficient, combining airflow dynamics and simple cloud microphysics. The resulting 1 km resolution precipitation fields show substantially reduced precipitation on the northeastern portion of the icefield compared to the southwestern side, a pattern that is not well captured in the coarse resolution (20 km) WRF data. Net snow accumulation derived from the LT model precipitation agrees well with point observations across the icefield. To investigate the robustness of the LT model results, we perform a series of sensitivity experiments varying hydrometeor fall speeds, the horizontal resolution of the underlying grid, and the source of the meteorological forcing data. The resulting normalized spatial precipitation pattern is similar for all sensitivity experiments, but local precipitation amounts vary strongly, with greatest sensitivity to variations in snow fall speed. Results indicate that the LT model has great potential to provide improved spatial patterns of winter precipitation for glacier mass balance modeling purposes in complex terrain, but ground observations are necessary to constrain model parameters to match total amounts.

Application and Study of Precipitation Schemes in Weather Simulation in Summer and Winter over China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XU Guoqiang; WAN Qilin; HUANG Liping; XUE Jishan; CHEN Dehui

2006-01-01

Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme and Betts-Miller (BM) scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded.Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

2010-05-01

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Toreti

2010-05-01

Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

Characteristics of Winter Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in Moscow in 1970-2016 under Conditions of Reduced Sea Ice Area in the Barents Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2018-01-01

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949-2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005-2016 when compared to 1970-1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005-2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

Investigation the Concentration and Trend of Winter Precipitation of Iranian Border Stations over the Last Half Century

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Keyvan Khalili

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Climate change in the current era is a very important environmental challenge. Our understanding of the impacts of human activities on the environment, especially those related to global warming caused by increased greenhouse gases indicates that, most probably, a number of hydro-climatic parameters are changing. Based on the scientific reports, the average temperature of the earth has increased about 0.6 degrees centigrade over the 20th century and it is expected that the amount of evaporation continues to rise. In this case, the atmosphere would be able to transport larger amounts of water vapor, influencing the amount of atmospheric precipitations (21. Low precipitation and its severe fluctuations in the daily, seasonal and annual time scales are the intrinsic characteristics of Iran’s climates. Based on the research background, it seems that no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentration of winter precipitation in Iran. The aim of this study is to calculate the concentration and Trend of precipitation of Iranian border stations over the last half-century. Materials and Methods: Iran with an area of over16480000 square kilometers is situated in the northern hemisphere and southwest of Asia. Almost all parts of Iran have four seasons. In general, a year can be divided into two warm and cold seasons. In this study, 18 stations were selected among more than 200 synoptic stations existing in the country, for investigating the concentration and precipitation trend. PCI Index The PCI index has been proposed as an index of precipitation concentration. The seasonal scales of this index are calculated as equation 1(18: (1 Where Pi is the amount of monthly precipitation in the ith month. Based on the proposed formula, the minimum value of theoretical PCI is 8.3, indicating absolute uniformity in the precipitation concentration (i.e. the same amount of precipitation occurs every month. Trend analysis The aim of process test

Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

2017-12-01

From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

On the differences between early and middle winter atmospheric responses to sea surface temperature anomalies in the northwest Atlantic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.; Derome, J.; Ritchie, H.; Dugas, B.

1994-01-01

Using an atmospheric global spectral model at RPN with T42 horizontal resolution, we have shown that the winter atmosphere in the mid-latitude is capable of reacting to the SST anomalies prescribed in the northwest Atlantic with two different responses. The nature of the response is determined by the climatological conditions of the winter system. Experiments are conducted using either the perpetual November or January conditions, with or without the SST anomalies prescribed. Six 50-day integrations, with positive (or negative) SST anomalies prescribed, initialized from independent November analyses and similarly, four runs initialized from January analyses, have been examined in comparison with their control runs

An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

Science.gov (United States)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy

Precipitation in Madeira island and atmospheric rivers in the winter seasons

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Couto, Flavio T.; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria; Prior, Victor

2016-04-01

This study aims to analyse the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the Madeira's highlands over a 10-year period, as well as the main characteristics associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting the island during 10 winter seasons, and their impact in the rainfall amounts recorded near the mountain crest in the south-eastern part of the island. The period between September 2002 and November 2012 is considered for the analysis. The ARs have been identified from the total precipitable water vapour field extracted from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The AIRS observations were downloaded for a domain covering large part of the North Atlantic Ocean. The precipitable water vapour field from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis was also used aiming to support the AIRS data when there was no satellite information over the island. The daily accumulated precipitation at surface showed generally drier summers, while the highest accumulated precipitation are recorded mainly during the winter, although some significant events may occur also in autumn and spring seasons. The patterns of the precipitable water vapour field when ARs reach the island were investigated, and even if great part of the atmospheric rivers reaches the island in a dissipation stage, some rivers are heavy enough to reach the Madeira Island. In this situation, the water vapour transport could be observed in two main configurations and transporting significant water vapour amounts toward the Madeira from the tropical region. This study lead to conclude that the atmospheric rivers, when associated to high values of precipitable water vapour over the island can provide favourable conditions to the development of precipitation, sometimes associated with high amounts. However, it was also found that many cases of high to extreme accumulated precipitation at the surface were not associated to this kind of moisture transport.

Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

Science.gov (United States)

Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.

2017-07-01

Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lionello

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, M.; Negri, Andrew

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

High-resolution precipitation database for the last two centuries in Italy: climatologies and anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Crespi, Alice; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio

2017-04-01

The availability of gridded high-resolution spatial climatologies and corresponding secular records has acquired an increasing importance in the recent years both to research purposes and as decision-support tools in the management of natural resources and economical activities. High-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy were computed by gridding on a 30-arc-second-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) the precipitation normals (1961-1990) obtained from a quality-controlled dataset of about 6200 stations covering the Italian surface and part of the Northern neighbouring regions. Starting from the assumption that the precipitation distribution is strongly influenced by orography, especially elevation, a local weighted linear regression (LWLR) of precipitation versus elevation was performed at each DEM cell. The regression coefficients for each cell were estimated by selecting the stations with the highest weights in which the distances and the level of similarity between the station cells and the considered grid cell, in terms of orographic features, are taken into account. An optimisation procedure was then set up in order to define, for each month and for each grid cell, the most suitable decreasing coefficients for the weighting factors which enter in the LWLR scheme. The model was validated by the comparison with the results provided by inverse distance weighting (IDW) applied both to station normals and to the residuals of a global regression of station normals versus elevation. In both cases, the LWLR leave-one-out reconstructions show the best agreement with the observed station normals, especially when considering specific station clusters (high elevation sites for example). After producing the high-resolution precipitation climatological field, the temporal component on the high-resolution grid was obtained by following the anomaly method. It is based on the assumption that the spatio-temporal structure of the signal of a

Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

Science.gov (United States)

Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2011-02-01

Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study, the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed which corrects the radar data for errors related to attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data was implemented because such an adjustment would not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar data. The impact of the different corrections is assessed using rainfall information sampled by 42 hourly rain gauges. The largest improvement in the quality of the radar data is obtained by correcting for ground clutter. The impact of VPR correction and advection depends on the spatial variability and velocity of the precipitation system. Overall during the winter period, the radar underestimates the amount of precipitation as compared to the rain gauges. Remaining differences between both instruments can be attributed to spatial and temporal variability in the type of precipitation, which has not been taken into account.

Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of the Precipitation Anomaly in Southwest China in Recent 60 Years

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG; Rong; PANG; Jing; QIN; Jun

2012-01-01

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of southwest China and 160 stations of China from 1951 to 2010, by using EOF analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis, monthly and seasonal change rules of the precipitation in southwest China were analyzed. Corresponding spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the precipitation in drought and flood years were studied. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China in recent 60 years were revealed. [Result]Seasonal distribution of the precipitation in southwest China was uneven and was typical single-peak type. Precipitation concentrated from May to September, and peak appeared in July. In recent years, rainfall in autumn significantly became less, while that in other seasons had no obvious change. Precipitation in summer had the cycle of 14 years, another for 6 years and 3-4 years of periodic oscillations. In wet years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in southern China, and anti-phase with that in the junction of Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibet. In dry years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in the eastern part of northwest China and northern China. [Conclusion]The research provided reference basis for prediction and pre-warning of the precipitation in the zone.

Quantitative study of substorm-associated VLF phase anomalies and precipitating energetic electrons on November 13, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, T.; Evans, D.S.

1983-01-01

The phase anomalies associated with substorms are observed on VLF signals propagating on transauroral paths (transmitters at OMEGA-ALDRA (13.6 kHz), GBR (16.0 kHz), and OMEGA--NORTH DAKOTA (13.6 kHz)) which were continually received at Inubo, Japan, during the events on November 13, 1979. Detailed comparisons are made between these phase anomalies and geomagnetic bays, and quantitative relations are obtained with precipitating energetic electrons (E>30, E>100, and E>300 keV) detected on board the TIROS-N and NOAA 6 satellites. It is concluded that two types of VLF phase anomalies exist which, in turn, are associated with two phases in the history of energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere. The first type of phase anomaly is associated with direct injection of energetic electrons into the outer magnetosphere and atmosphere which, in turn, is completely correlated in time with development of the auroral electrojet current system. The second type arises from energetic electrons which subsequently precipitate from a trapped electron population and has a delayed onset and prolonged duration. An excellent quantitative correlation is obtained between the logarithm of the electron flux and the magnitude of the phase anomaly on the OMEGA-ALDRA signal. From the local time characteristics of this quantitative relation it is deduced that the electrons with E>300 keV are the main source of D region ionization responsible for the VLF phase anomaly

The impact of Arctic and North Atlantic oscillation on temperature and precipitation anomalies in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavlović-Berdon Nada

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of the Arctic Oscillations (AO and the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO is considered as the most prominent of atmospheric oscillations in the area of the northern hemisphere from the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic. The aim of this study was to determine how these fluctuations affect the temperature and precipitation in Serbia. This paper explores the impact for the period of 50 years (1958-2007 by months and in 20 synoptic stations. The influence of the AO on temperature anomalies in Serbia can be seen by the correlation coefficient, the largest in the month of January, while its impact on precipitation is the largest in the month of February. After the test of linear correlation between the NAO index and temperature anomalies for the base period 1971-2000 for 20 synoptic stations in Serbia, it has been found that the highest correlation is in the month of January. The correlation between the NAO and the precipitation anomalies for the stations mentioned above is the highest in the month of February. Spatial patterns of the AO and the NAO influence on temperature in January and on precipitation in February were obtained by applying principal component analysis.

Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

2018-01-01

Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

Winter-spring precipitation reconstructions from tree rings for northeast Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Villanueva-Diaz, J.; Cerano-Paredes, J. [Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias, Centro Nacional de Investigacion Disciplinarioa en Relacion Agua, Suelo, Planta. Km 6.5 Margen Derecha del Canal Sacramento Gomez Palacio, Durango, 35140 (Mexico); Stahle, D.W.; Cleaveland, M.K. [Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, fayetteville, Arkansas 72701 (United States); Luckman, B.H. [Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A5C3 (Canada); Therrell, M.D. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 29904 (United States); Cornejo-Oviedo, E. [Departamento Forestal, Universidad Autonoma Agraria Antonio Narro, Saltillo, Coahuila (Mexico)

2007-07-15

The understanding of historic hydroclimatic variability is basic for planning proper management of limited water resources in northeastern Mexico. The objective of this study was to develop a network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct hydroclimate variability in northeastern Mexico and to analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns, such as ENSO. Precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies of Douglas-fir were developed in mountain ranges of the Sierra Madre Oriental and used to produce winter-spring precipitation reconstructions for central and southern Nuevo Leon, and southeastern Coahuila. The seasonal winter-spring precipitation reconstructions are 342 years long (1659-2001) for Saltillo, Coahuila and 602 years long (1400-2002) for central and southern Nuevo Leon. Both reconstructions show droughts in the 1810s, 1870s, 1890s, 1910s, and 1970s, and wet periods in the 1770s, 1930s, 1960s, and 1980s. Prior to 1800s the reconstructions are less similar. The impact of ENSO in northeastern Mexico (as measured by the Tropical Rainfall Index) indicated long-term instability of the Pacific equatorial teleconnection. Atmospheric circulation systems coming from higher latitudes (cold fronts or 'nortes') and others developed in the Gulf of Mexico (tropical storms, hurricanes) also influence the climatic conditions characterizing this region. The recent development of new and longer tree-ring chronologies for the region will contribute to a better understanding of the interannual and multidecadal climatic variability of northeastern Mexico.

Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

Science.gov (United States)

Förster, Kristian; Hanzer, Florian; Stoll, Elena; Scaife, Adam A.; MacLachlan, Craig; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Achleitner, Stefan; Strasser, Ulrich

2018-02-01

This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r = 0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r = 0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

2018-01-01

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Isotope composition of winter precipitation and snow cover in the foothills of the Altai

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. S. Malygina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Over the past three decades, several general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean (atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models  – GCMs have been improved by modeling the hydrological cycle with the use of isotopologues (isotopes of water HDO and H2 18O. Input parameters for the GCM models taking into account changes in the isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation were, above all, the results obtained by the network GNIP – Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. At different times, on the vast territory of Russia there were only about 40 simultaneously functioning stations where the sampling of atmospheric precipitation was performed. In this study we present the results of the isotope composition of samples taken on the foothills of the Altai during two winter seasons of 2014/15 and 2015/16. Values of the isotope composition of precipitation changed in a wide range and their maximum fluctuations were 25, 202 and 18‰ for δ18О, dexc and δD, respectively. The weighted-mean values of δ18О and δD of the precipitation analyzed for the above two seasons were close to each other (−21.1 and −158.1‰ for the first season and −21.1 and −161.9‰ for the second one, while dexc values differed significantly. The comparison of the results of isotope analysis of the snow cover integral samples with the corresponding in the time interval the weighted-mean values of precipitation showed high consistency. However, despite the similarity of values of δ18О and δD, calculated for precipitation and snow cover, and the results, interpolated in IsoMAP (from data of the GNIP stations for 1960–2010, the dexc values were close to mean annual values of IsoMAP for only the second winter season. According to the trajectory analysis (the HYSPLIT model, the revealed differences between both, the seasons, and the long-term average values of IsoMAP, were associated with a change of main regions where the air masses

Investigation of Microphysical Parameters within Winter and Summer Type Precipitation Events over Mountainous [Complex] Terrain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stalker, James R.; Bossert, James E.

1997-10-01

In this study we investigate complex terrain effects on precipitation with RAMS for both in winter and summer cases from a microphysical perspective. We consider a two dimensional east-west topographic cross section in New Mexico representative of the Jemez mountains on the west and the Sangre de Cristo mountains on the east. Located between these two ranges is the Rio Grande Valley. In these two dimensional experiments, variations in DSDs are considered to simulate total precipitation that closely duplicate observed precipitation

The interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China and its relationship with the SST anomaly

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, Y.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Based on the observed precipitation data from 756 China stations, ERA-interim reanalysis dataset, and HadISST dataset for 1979-2014, this paper investigates the intensity of interannual variation (IIV) of spring precipitation over southern China during 1979-2014 and related large-scale atmospheric and oceanic signal through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and other statistical analysis methods. The results show that the IIV of spring precipitation over South China (SC) was stronger during 1979-1994, which is related to the spring western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the previous winter South Pacific tripole (SPT) pattern of SSTA. Anomalous cooler (warmer) WP SSTA triggers anomalous descending (ascending) motion and lower-level anticyclone (cyclone), which in turn induces anomalous ascent (descent) over SC through an anomalous vertical circulation. The SPT can influence the spring precipitation over SC by impacting WP SST. The stronger IIV of WP SST and SPT led to an intensified IIV of spring rainfall over SC. The IIV of spring precipitation over middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (YZR) was more intense during 1995-2006. The intensified interannual variability of spring rainfall over YZR is interrelated with the increase in the amplitude of the spring southern Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) in early 1990s. During the positive (negative) SIOD, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is stronger (weaker), which is favorable (unfavorable) for the transportation of vapor from Pacific to YZR. At the same time, the pressure ridge over Siberia and East Asian trough is weaker (stronger), enhancing (weakening) the spring precipitation over YZR.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

Particle precipitation events in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA) and geomagnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez Bettucci, L.; Caraballo, R.; Da Silva Barbosa, C.

2003-01-01

Particle precipitation events in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA) have been correlated with impulses in the H component of the geomagnetic field. Sudden changes in the H component of the geomagnetic field can produce high intensity peaks in geomagnetic induced currents (GIC) at the Earth’s surface. The effects related to electron precipitation on the upper and middle atmosphere are still not well understood, especially in the area of the SAMA. This study focuses on the Halloween magnetic storm (29-31 October 2003) and two of the largest magnetic storms occurred in 2011. Data from POES and DMSP satellites have been contrasted with the Vassoura s magnetic observatory records and the GIC in a H V transformer neutral at Itumbiara substation (central Brazilian area) to look for possible correlations between d H, the GIC and the precipitation flux of ultrarelativistic electrons. The observations suggest some overlap between episodes of intense precipitation of electrons in the inner radiation belt and impulsive changes in these variables

The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pourasghar, Farnaz; Jahanbakhsh, Saeed; Sari Sarraf, Behrooz [The University of Tabriz, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tozuka, Tomoki [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Ghaemi, Hooshang [Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

2012-11-15

The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974-2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. (orig.)

Precipitation and synoptic regime in two extreme years 2009 and 2010 at Dome C, Antarctica – implications for ice core interpretation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Schlosser

2016-04-01

Full Text Available At the East Antarctic deep ice core drilling site Dome C, daily precipitation measurements were initiated in 2006 and are being continued until today. The amounts and stable isotope ratios of the precipitation samples as well as crystal types are determined. Within the measuring period, the two years 2009 and 2010 showed striking contrasting temperature and precipitation anomalies, particularly in the winter seasons. The reasons for these anomalies are analysed using data from the mesoscale atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model run under the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS. 2009 was relatively warm and moist due to frequent warm air intrusions connected to amplification of Rossby waves in the circumpolar westerlies, whereas the winter of 2010 was extremely dry and cold. It is shown that while in 2010 a strong zonal atmospheric flow was dominant, in 2009 an enhanced meridional flow prevailed, which increased the meridional transport of heat and moisture onto the East Antarctic plateau and led to a number of high-precipitation/warming events at Dome C. This was also evident in a positive (negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode index and a negative (positive ZW3 (zonal wave number three index during the winter months of 2010 (2009. Changes in the frequency or seasonality of such event-type precipitation can lead to a strong bias in the air temperature derived from stable water isotopes in ice cores.

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE FIRST RAINING SEASON (APRIL-JUNE) IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND SST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IN CHINA

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

邓立平; 王谦谦

2002-01-01

Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale.Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season,there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods.In addition,by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ～August of the previous year),a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season.Discussions are also made of the sensitive period,its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China.In the last part of the work,relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed.A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.

Combinations of large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 138, March 2014 (2014), s. 205-212 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extreme * synoptic-scale cause * re-analysis * circulation anomaly Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.844, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513003372

Particle precipitation and atmospheric X-and gamma-rays in the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly by balloon experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, J.M. da.

1981-06-01

Studies concerning particle precipitation and atmospheric X-and low energy gamma-rays in the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly by balloons experiments that have been made at INPE since 1968 are reported. (Author) [pt

Identifying role of subtropical southeast Pacific SST anomalies on precipitation dynamics in Central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Bozkurt, D.; Garreaud, R.

2014-12-01

Central Chile (CC, western South America coasts, 28°S- 38°S) is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The region is characterized by semiarid Mediterranean climate with a marked precipitation gradient along the coast from north to south, mostly due to the positioning of the South Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone and the midlatitude westerlies belt. Although there are several diagnostic studies that focus on the impact of tropical Pacific SST on CC precipitation variability via atmospheric teleconnections, less attention has been placed on impacts of subtropical southeast (SE) Pacific SST on precipitation. The later region is immediately adjacent to CC and it interferes with the overpassing atmospheric systems. In particular we want to assess the impact of a consistent cooling over the SE Pacific during the last 30 years. This study is being tackled by a combination of observational and reanalysis datasets together with numerical simulations. Observational dataset includes gridded dataset of CRU, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, Reynolds SST data V2 based on AVHRR infrared satellite SST data is used for analyzing spatial and temporal changes in SST. Current modelling experiment includes a control simulation, used as reference, and sensitivity simulation that involves perturbations to SST over subtropical SE Pacific for a normal year austral winter (2001) season. A number of simulations with different initial conditions have been carried out by employing ICTP-RegCM4. The domain for simulations was centered at 82oW and 32oW with 288x288 grid cells on 20 km spatial resolution. Preliminary results indicate that the response of precipitation in CC to SST anomalies in the subtropical SE Pacific exhibits more or less linear behavior. In the colder SST experiments, drier conditions dominate over CC, which is possibly related with the intensification of South Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone (SPSA) or a reduction in the available

Characteristics of autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast identified by cluster analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

2012-08-15

Extremely high autumn and winter precipitation events on the European west coast are often driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Climate projections suggest the number and intensity of these events is likely to increase far more than the mean precipitation. In this study we investigate the autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast and the connection between its spatial distribution and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns using the k-means cluster analysis. We use three relatively high resolved downscalings of one global coupled model: the Arpege global atmospheric model (stretched grid with 35-km horizontal resolution over Norway) and the WRF-downscaled Arpege model (30 and 10-km) for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. The cluster analysis finds three main SLP patterns responsible for extreme precipitation in different parts of the country. The SLP patterns found are similar to the NAO positive pattern known to strengthen the westerly flow towards European coast. We then apply the method to investigate future change in extreme precipitation. We find an increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation of 15, 39 and 35% in the two simulations (Arpege 35-km and WRF 30 and 10-km, respectively). We do not find evidence of a significant change in the frequency of weather patterns between the present and the future periods. Rather, it is the probability of a given weather pattern to cause extreme precipitation which is increased in the future, probably due to higher temperatures and an increased moisture content of the air. The WRF model predicts the increase in this probability caused by the most important SLP patterns to be >50%. The Arpege model does not predict such a significant change because the general increase in extreme precipitation predicted is smaller, probably due to its coarser resolution over ocean which leads to smoother representation of the low pressure systems. (orig.)

Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

2011-10-15

Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)

An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

Factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke

2013-08-01

Extreme precipitation events in the upper Yangtze River Valley (YRV) have recently become an increasingly important focus in China because they often cause droughts and floods. Unfortunately, little is known about the climate processes responsible for these events. This paper investigates factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation events in the upper YRV. Our results reveal that a weakened South China Sea summer monsoon trough, intensified Eurasian-Pacific blocking highs, an intensified South Asian High, a southward subtropical westerly jet and an intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) increase atmospheric instability and enhance the convergence of moisture over the upper YRV, which result in more extreme precipitation events. The snow depth over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) in winter and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over three key regions in summer are important external forcing factors in the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Deep snow on the Tibetan Plateau in winter can weaken the subsequent East Asian summer monsoon circulation above by increasing the soil moisture content in summer and weakening the land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia. The positive SSTA in the western North Pacific may affect southwestward extension of the WNPSH and the blocking high over northeastern Asia by arousing the East Asian-Pacific pattern. The positive SSTA in the North Atlantic can affect extreme precipitation event frequency in the upper YRV via a wave train pattern along the westerly jet between the North Atlantic and East Asia. A tripolar pattern from west to east over the Indian Ocean can strengthen moisture transport by enhancing Somali cross-equatorial flow.

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

2018-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

2012-01-01

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2012-12-15

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

Comparison of satellite-derived LAI and precipitation anomalies over Brazil with a thermal infrared-based Evaporative Stress Index for 2003-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Martha C.; Zolin, Cornelio A.; Hain, Christopher R.; Semmens, Kathryn; Tugrul Yilmaz, M.; Gao, Feng

2015-07-01

Shortwave vegetation index (VI) and leaf area index (LAI) remote sensing products yield inconsistent depictions of biophysical response to drought and pluvial events that have occurred in Brazil over the past decade. Conflicting reports of severity of drought impacts on vegetation health and functioning have been attributed to cloud and aerosol contamination of shortwave reflectance composites, particularly over the rainforested regions of the Amazon basin which are subject to prolonged periods of cloud cover and episodes of intense biomass burning. This study compares timeseries of satellite-derived maps of LAI from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) with a diagnostic Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) retrieved using thermal infrared remote sensing over South America for the period 2003-2013. This period includes several severe droughts and floods that occurred both over the Amazon and over unforested savanna and agricultural areas in Brazil. Cross-correlations between absolute values and standardized anomalies in monthly LAI and precipitation composites as well as the actual-to-reference evapotranspiration (ET) ratio used in the ESI were computed for representative forested and agricultural regions. The correlation analyses reveal strong apparent anticorrelation between MODIS LAI and TRMM precipitation anomalies over the Amazon, but better coupling over regions vegetated with shorter grass and crop canopies. The ESI was more consistently correlated with precipitation patterns over both landcover types. Temporal comparisons between ESI and TRMM anomalies suggest longer moisture buffering timescales in the deeper rooted rainforest systems. Diagnostic thermal-based retrievals of ET and ET anomalies, such as used in the ESI, provide independent information on the impacts of extreme hydrologic events on vegetation health in comparison with VI and precipitation-based drought

Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

2018-01-01

This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

About the nature of regional thermal anomaly in the Semipalatinsk Test Site region revealed basing on remote space sensing data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melent'ev, M.I.; Velikanov, A.E.

2003-01-01

A thermal anomaly, (more than 20,000 sq. km) discovered in the Semipalatinsk Test Site region in the pictures from space, is observed every year on certain days mainly in winter-spring season. Appearance of the thermal anomaly often coincides with days of intensive fall of atmospheric precipitation and possible thawing of snow cover together with decreasing of ozone concentration in atmosphere. The explanation of thermal anomaly in the Semipalatinsk Test Site region due to nuclear reaction caused by the energy of radionuclide radioactive decay deposited in a soil layer after ground and air nuclear explosions and radiolysis processes in soil solutions is given in this article. (author)

The boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation's influence on summertime precipitation in the greater Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Scott; Gamble, Douglas W.

2016-07-01

Precipitation totals in the greater Caribbean are known to be affected by interannual variability. In particular, dry conditions in the spring-summer have been physically linked to the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the literature. In this study, it was found through regression analysis that an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in winter geographically focused over the Maritime Continent contributes to a positive NAO in March via the generation of Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, a negative Pacific-North American pattern develops in the winter and transitions to an Atlantic pattern in spring. The positive NAO is a transient feature of this evolving wave train, but a center of significant positive 200 hPa geopotential heights is entrenched over the southeast U.S. throughout the February to May time period and is manifested as high pressure at the surface. The southern flank of this system increases the speeds of the trade winds and leads to a cooling of the Caribbean sea surface temperatures and, thus, convection suppression and reduced precipitation. Thus, this study advances our understanding of the climate of the greater Caribbean by using climate teleconnections to relate the MJO to rainfall in the region.

Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution vs. long-range transported dust

OpenAIRE

J. Fan; L. R. Leung; P. J. DeMott; J. M. Comstock; B. Singh; D. Rosenfeld; J. M. Tomlinson; A. White; K. A. Prather; P. Minnis; J. K. Ayers; Q. Min

2013-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical mode...

Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust

OpenAIRE

Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

2014-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical mod...

Response of the Adriatic Sea to the atmospheric anomaly in 2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Grbec

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Unusual weather conditions over the southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in 2003 significantly impacted the oceanographic properties of the Adriatic Sea. To document these changes, both in the atmosphere and the sea, anomalies from the normal climate were calculated. The winter 2003 was extremely cold, whereas the spring/summer period was extremely warm. The air temperature in June was more than 3 standard deviations above the average. On the other hand, precipitation and river runoff were extremely low between February and August. The response of the sea was remarkable, especially in surface salinity during spring and summer, with values at least one standard deviation above the average. Analysis of thermohaline properties in the middle Adriatic showed the importance of two phenomena responsible for the occurrence of exceptionally high salinity: (1 enhanced inflow of saline Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW in the Adriatic, and (2 extremely low precipitation and river runoff, accompanied with strong evaporation. Two large-scale atmospheric indices: NAOI (North Atlantic Oscillation Index and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index, although generally correlated to the Adriatic climate, failed to describe anomalies in 2003. The air pressure gradients used for the definition of both indices significantly decreased in 2003 due to the presence of the high pressure areas over most of Europe and the northern Atlantic, and were actually responsible for the observed anomalies above and in the Adriatic.

Winter precipitation effect in a mid-latitude temperature-limited environment: the case of common juniper at high elevation in the Alps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pellizzari, Elena; Pividori, Mario; Carrer, Marco

2014-01-01

Common juniper (Juniperus communis L.) is by far the most widespread conifer in the world. However, tree-ring research dealing with this species is still scarce, mainly due to the difficulty in crossdating associated with the irregular stem shape with strip-bark growth form in older individuals and the high number of missing and wedging rings. Given that many different species of the same genus have been successfully used in tree-ring investigations and proved to be reliable climate proxies, this study aims to (i) test the possibility to successfully apply dendrochronological techniques on common juniper growing above the treeline and (ii) verify the climate sensitivity of the species with special regard to winter precipitation, a climatic factor that generally does not affect tree-ring growth in all Alpine high-elevation tree species. Almost 90 samples have been collected in three sites in the central and eastern Alps, all between 2100 and 2400 m in elevation. Despite cross-dating difficulties, we were able to build a reliable chronology for each site, each spanning over 200 years. Climate-growth relationships computed over the last century highlight that juniper growth is mainly controlled by the amount of winter precipitation. The high variability of the climate-growth associations among sites, corresponds well to the low spatial dependence of this meteorological factor. Fairly long chronologies and the presence of a significant precipitation signal open up the possibility to reconstruct past winter precipitation. (letter)

Relation between the St. Louis urban precipitation anomaly and synoptic weather factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogel, J.L.; Huff, F.A.

1978-01-01

The summer (June--August) rainfall distribution on the METROMEX network was analyzed to determine the synoptic conditions during which the urban-industrial regions of St. Louis affect the precipitation process. The rainfall patterns were stratified by direction of movement of convective entities in storm systems, surface wind direction, and basic synoptic weather types. The results provide support for enhancement of rainfall downstorm from the urban-industrial region. Although only 23% of the 330 storms moved from the west-southwest, the storms produced 42% of the network rainfall and were strong contributors to the rainfall anomaly that maximizes 25--30 km northeast of St. Louis. Cold front conditions with the major convective entities moving from the southwest, and squall lines with any storm motion were associated with the most intense rainstorms over the raingage network, and these storms were also largely responsible for the rainfall anomaly. The rainfall pattern based on air mass storms did not indicate any The rainfall pattern based on air mass storms did not indicate any significant urban enhancement of rainfall and study of squall zone storms suggested possible reduction of rainfall in the urban region

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun

2018-02-01

Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments

Precipitation stable isotope records from the northern Hengduan Mountains in China capture signals of the winter India-Burma Trough and the Indian Summer Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Wusheng; Tian, Lide; Yao, Tandong; Xu, Baiqing; Wei, Feili; Ma, Yaoming; Zhu, Haifeng; Luo, Lun; Qu, Dongmei

2017-11-01

This project reports results of the first precipitation stable isotope (δ18 O and δD) time series produced for Qamdo in the northern Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The data showed that the fluctuations of precipitation stable isotopes at Qamdo during the different seasons revealed various moisture sources. The westerlies and local recycling moisture dominated at the study area before the pre-monsoon and after the post-monsoon seasons, which resulted in similar trends of both precipitation stable isotopes and temperature. The marine moisture was transported to the northern Hengduan Mountains by the winter India-Burma Trough combined with convection. Consequently, stable isotopes in subsequent precipitation were occasionally observed to decrease suddenly. However, δ18 O and δD values of precipitation at Qamdo were lower during the monsoon period and the duration of those low values was longer because of the effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the strengthening convection. Our findings indicate that the effects of seasonal precipitation differences caused by various climate systems, including the winter India-Burma Trough and Indian Summer Monsoon, need to be considered when attempting to interpret tree-ring and ice core records for the Hengduan Mountains.

Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

2012-12-01

Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

Global magnetic anomaly and aurora of Neptune

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, A.F.

1990-01-01

The large offset and tilt of Neptune's dipole magnetic field combine to create a global magnetic anomaly, analogous to but much more important than Earth's South Atlantic Anomaly. Energetic particle precipitation loss within the Neptune anomaly creates atmospheric drift shadows within which particle fluxes are greatly reduced. The energetic particle dropout observed by Voyager near closest approach occurred near the predicted times when Voyager passed within the atmospheric drift shadow. Extremely soft, structured bursts of ions and electrons within the drift shadow may result from plasma wave-induced pitch angle scattering of trapped particles confined near the magnetic equator. The dropout does not necessarily imply that Voyager passed through an Earth-like discrete auroral zone, as earlier reported. The ion and electron fluxes observed within the dropout period correspond to particles that must precipitate to Neptune's atmosphere within the anomaly region. This anomaly precipitation can account for a major portion of the ultraviolet emissions previously identified as Neptune aurora

[Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

2017-12-01

The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For

Winter precipitation and fire in the Sonoran Desert

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rogers, G.F.; Vint, M.K.

1987-01-01

Historical fire and climate records from the Arizona Upland portion of the Tonto National forest were used to test the hypothesis that fires burn larger areas in the Sonoran Desert after two wet winters than after one. We found that many more hectares burn in years following two winters that are wetter than normal, than during any other years. We agree with other ecologists, that desert fire occurrence is probably related to increased production of winter annual plants, and we suggest ways that the relationship may be clarified.

Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

1997-05-01

Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

Southern Hemisphere circulation signals in connection with winter rainfall forecasting in central Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutlant, J.; Aceituno, P.

1991-05-01

The possibility of detecting easterly propagating low frequency signals in the Southern Hemispheric circulation is explored in connection with the assessment of a possible seasonal rainfall forecast in central Chile. The analysis has focused on the seasonal variability associated with the biennial component of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and on the one resulting from superimposed intraseasonal oscillations, in relation with winter precipitation and individual rainfall events, respectively. Based on a previous work, relating wet winters to frequent blocks to the SW of South America during warm events of the SO, time-longitude cross sections of a 5-day average blocking index (BI) calculated from ECMWF 200 hPa daily hemispheric analyses for the period 1980-1987 are presented. A general eastward displacement of western and central Pacific positive BI areas seems to characterize the developing phase of warm SO events and vice versa, while intraseasonal variability patterns appear to be related to single rainstorms, either when the positive BI phase of the wave amplifies while crossing the western Pacific or when it reaches the far southeastern Pacific, frequently with a double block structure. It is concluded that the behaviour of both sources of variability is consistent with previously described teleconnection patterns for ENSO events in the southern winter, and that a primary prospect for winter precipitation and for the occurrence of relatively large individual rainstorms in central Chile could be obtained following the filtered BI and 500 hPa height anomalies in both time scales during the fall season. (author). 28 refs, 12 figs

Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

Natural hazards, such as droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany (COPA-COGECA 2003). Predicting crop yields allows to economize the mitigation of risks of weather extremes. Economic approaches for quantifying agricultural impacts of natural hazards mainly rely on temperature and related concepts. For instance extreme heat over the growing season is considered as best predictor of corn yield (Auffhammer and Schlenker 2014). However, those measures are only able to provide a proxy for the available water content in the root zone that ultimately determines plant growth and eventually crop yield. The aim of this paper is to analyse whether soil moisture has a causal effect on crop yield that can be exploited in improving adaptation measures. For this purpose, reduced form fixed effect panel models are developed with yield as dependent variable for both winter wheat and silo maize crops. The explanatory variables used are soil moisture anomalies, precipitation and temperature. The latter two are included to estimate the current state of the water balance. On the contrary, soil moisture provides an integrated signal over several months. It is also the primary source of water supply for plant growth. For each crop a single model is estimated for every month within the growing period to study the variation of the effects over time. Yield data is available for Germany as a whole on the level of administrative districts from 1990 to 2010. Station data by the German Weather Service are obtained for precipitation and temperature and are aggregated to the same spatial units. Simulated soil moisture computed by the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) is transformed into Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which represents the monthly soil water quantile and hence accounts directly for the water content available to plants. The results

Search for GLAST gamma ray burst triggers due to particle precipitation in the South Atlantic Anomaly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Augusto, C. R. A.; Navia, C. E.; Tsui, K. H.

2008-01-01

When GLAST is in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), the rate of charged particles is too high to be efficiently filtered out. Moreover the high rate can cause saturation effects in the readout electronics and the sensors must be turned off. The SAA area relative to the total area of GLAST's orbit is approximately 12.5% and GLAST spends 18% of the time in it. In spite of these cares, we show in this work that, due to drift processes, particle precipitation can still trigger GLAST when it is close to the SAA region. Here, we report two GLAST gamma ray burst monitor (GBM) triggers, trigger 239895229 and trigger 239913100, on August, 08, 2008 whose characteristics are similar to the ones observed in the Swift-BAT noise triggers (due to particle precipitation in the SAA region). Both GLAST triggers happened during a plentiful particle precipitation in the SAA region, observed by Tupi telescopes at the ground with their trigger coordinates close to the field of view of the telescopes. Details of these results are reported.

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

2018-01-01

Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Nino Modoki and El Nino events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weng, Hengyi; Behera, Swadhin K. [Climate Variations Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [Climate Variations Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)]|[University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Sciences, Tokyo (Japan)

2009-04-15

Present work compares impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on anomalous climate in the Pacific rim during boreal winters of 1979-2005. El Nino Modoki (El Nino) is associated with tripole (dipole) patterns in anomalies of sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-level divergent wind in the tropical Pacific, which are related to multiple 'boomerangs' of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Pacific. Zonal and meridional extents of those 'boomerangs' reflect their independent influences, which are seen from lower latitudes in the west to higher latitudes in the east. In the central Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropics to higher latitudes during El Nino Modoki owing to displacement of the wet 'boomerang' arms more poleward toward east. Discontinuities at outer 'boomerang' arms manifest intense interactions between tropical and subtropical/extratropical systems. The Pacific/North American pattern and related climate anomalies in North America found in earlier studies are modified in very different ways by the two phenomena. The seesaw with the dry north and the wet south in the western USA is more likely to occur during El Nino Modoki, while much of the western USA is wet during El Nino. The moisture to the southwestern USA is transported from the northward shifted ITCZ during El Nino Modoki, while it is carried by the storms traveling along the southerly shifted polar front jet during El Nino. The East Asian winter monsoon related anticyclone is over the South China Sea during El Nino Modoki as compared to its position over the Philippine Sea during El Nino, causing opposite precipitation anomalies in the southern East Asia between the two phenomena. (orig.)

The relative importance of ENSO and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies for seasonal precipitation over South America: a numerical study

Science.gov (United States)

Pezzi, L. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.

The role of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO episodes over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) is investigated using the CPTEC/COLA Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). Four sets of integrations are performed using SST in El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) episodes, changing the SST of the Atlantic Ocean. A positive dipole (SST higher than normal in the tropical North Atlantic and below normal in the tropical South Atlantic) and a negative dipole (opposite conditions), are set as the boundary conditions of SST in the Atlantic Ocean. The four experiments are performed using El Niño or La Niña SST in all oceans, except in the tropical Atlantic where the two phases of the SST dipole are applied. Five initial conditions were integrated in each case in order to obtain four ensemble results. The positive SST dipole over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean resulted in dry conditions over the Nordeste. When the negative dipole and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean were applied, the results showed precipitation above normal over the north of Nordeste. When La Niña conditions over Pacific Ocean were tested together with a negative dipole, positive precipitation anomalies occurred over the whole Nordeste. Using the positive dipole over the tropical Atlantic, the precipitation over Nordeste was below average. During La Niña episodes, the Atlantic Ocean conditions have a larger effect on the precipitation of Nordeste than the Pacific Ocean. In El Niño conditions, only the north region of Nordeste is affected by the Atlantic SST. Other tropical areas of South America show a change only in the intensity of anomalies. Central and southeast regions of South America are affected by the Atlantic conditions only during La Niña conditions, whereas during El Niño these regions are influenced only by conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Interannual variation of annual precipitation and urban effect on precipitation in the Beijing region

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region. The results show that: the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of - 1.197/10 yr, which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years; the local annual precipitation anomalies (percent of the normal 1960-2000) show a positive center near the urban area, i.e. urban precipitation island (UPI), whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0. 6621%/10 yr, opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region; changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation, and when the synoptic processes are strong (wet years), the intensity of UPI strengthens, while the synoptic processes are weak (dry years), and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region.

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Arribas, Alberto; MacLachlan, Craig

2014-01-01

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Meraner

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

Impacts of interactive dust and its direct radiative forcing on interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in winter over East Asia: Impacts of Dust on IAVs of Temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

2017-08-24

We used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leads to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of

The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme northern hemisphere winter of 2013/14

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Peter; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

In the 2013/14 winter, the eastern USA was exceptionally cold, the Bering Strait region was exceptionally warm, California was in the midst of drought and the UK suffered severe flooding. It has been suggested that elevated SSTs in the tropical West Pacific (TWPAC) were partly to blame due to their producing a Rossby wavetrain that propagated into the extratropics. We find that seasonal forecasts with the tropical atmosphere relaxed towards a reanalysis give 2013/14 winter-mean anomalies with strong similarities to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that low-latitude anomalies had a role in the development of the extremes. Relaxing just the TWPAC produces a strong wavetrain over the North Pacific and North America in January, but not in the winter-mean. This suggests that anomalies in this region alone had a large influence, but cannot explain the extremes through the whole winter. We also examine the response to applying the observed TWPAC SST anomalies in two atmospheric general circulation models. We find that this does produce winter-mean anomalies in the North Pacific and North America resembling those observed, but that the tropical forcing of Rossby waves due to the applied SST anomalies appears stronger than that in reanalysis, except in January. Therefore both experiments indicate that the TWPAC influence was important, but the true strength of the TWPAC influence is uncertain. None of the experiments indicate a strong systematic impact of the TWPAC anomalies on Europe.

[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

2015-09-01

Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled models: energetic study, seasonal cycle, precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laine, A.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Peterschmitt, J.Y. [LSCE/IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 1572, CE Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Salas-Melia, D.; Voldoire, A.; Riviere, G.; Planton, S.; Tyteca, S. [CNRM-GAME, URA CNRS-Meteo-France 1357, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

2009-04-15

Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Winter climate variability and classification in the Bulgarian Mountainous Regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petkova, Nadezhda; Koleva, Ekaterina

2004-01-01

The problems of snowiness and thermal conditions of winters are of high interest of investigations because of the more frequent droughts, occurred in the region. In the present study an attempt to reveal tendencies existing during the last 70 years of 20 th century in the course winter precipitation and,temperature as well as in some of the snow cover parameters. On the base of mean winter air temperature winters in the Bulgarian mountains were analyzed and classified. The main results of the study show that winter precipitation has decrease tendencies more significant in the highest parts of the mountains. On the other hand winter air temperature increases. It shows a relatively well-established maximum at the end of the studied period. In the Bulgarian mountains normal winters are about 35-40% of all winters. (Author)

Potential ocean–atmosphere preconditioning of late autumn Barents-Kara sea ice concentration anomaly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin P. King

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Many recent studies have revealed the importance of the climatic state in November on the seasonal climate of the subsequent winter. In particular, it has been shown that interannual variability of sea ice concentration (SIC over the Barents-Kara (BK seas in November is linked to winter atmospheric circulation anomaly that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Understanding the lead–lag processes involving the different components of the climate system from autumn to winter is therefore important. This note presents dynamical interpretation for the ice-ocean–atmosphere relationships that can affect the BK SIC anomaly in late autumn. It is found that cyclonic (anticyclonic wind anomaly over the Arctic in October, by Ekman drift, can be responsible for positive (negative SIC in the BK seas in November. The results also suggest that ocean heat transport via the Barents Sea Opening in September and October can contribute to BK SIC anomaly in November.

Link between the Barents Oscillation and recent boreal winter cooling over the Asian midlatitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Qi; Qiao, Fangli; Song, Zhenya; Song, Yajuan

2018-01-01

The link between boreal winter cooling over the midlatitudes of Asia and the Barents Oscillation (BO) since the late 1980s is discussed in this study, based on five datasets. Results indicate that there is a large-scale boreal winter cooling during 1990-2015 over the Asian midlatitudes, and that it is a part of the decadal oscillations of long-term surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. The SAT anomalies over the Asian midlatitudes are significantly correlated with the BO in boreal winter. When the BO is in its positive phase, anomalously high sea level pressure over the Barents region, with a clockwise wind anomaly, causes cold air from the high latitudes to move over the midlatitudes of Asia, resulting in anomalous cold conditions in that region. Therefore, the recent increasing trend of the BO has contributed to recent winter cooling over the Asian midlatitudes.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

, Minho, Tagus and Duero) is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins (Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir) the impact of ARs is reduced. In addition, meteorological large scale influence associated with ARs was also analyzed. The anomalies between the extended winter (ONDJFM) long term mean and the composite for the persistent ARs time steps were computed for the IVT and SLP fields. Negative SLP anomalies are found centered in Ireland with slight positive anomalies of SLP located over northern Africa. It was found that the ARs hitting the IP are strongly correlated with the EA pattern, while the influence of other patterns such as the NAO or SCAND is weak. Main results presented are currently in print (Ramos et al., 2015) Ramos et al (2014), A ranking of high-resolution daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi: 10.1002/asl2.507. Ramos et al. (2015), Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers. Journal Hydrometeorology, in press. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Snow precipitation at four ice core sites in East Antarctica: provenance, seasonality and blocking factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scarchilli, Claudio [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Universita degli studi di Trieste, Trieste (Italy); Frezzotti, Massimo; Ruti, Paolo Michele [ENEA, Rome (Italy)

2011-11-15

Snow precipitation is the primary mass input to the Antarctic ice sheet and is one of the most direct climatic indicators, with important implications for paleoclimatic reconstruction from ice cores. Provenance of precipitation and the dynamic conditions that force these precipitation events at four deep ice core sites (Dome C, Law Dome, Talos Dome, and Taylor Dome) in East Antarctica were analysed with air mass back trajectories calculated using the Lagrangian model and the mean composite data for precipitation, geopotential height and wind speed field data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast from 1980 to 2001. On an annual basis, back trajectories showed that the Atlantic-Indian and Ross-Pacific Oceans were the main provenances of precipitation in Wilkes Land (80%) and Victoria Land (40%), respectively, whereas the greatest influence of the ice sheet was on the interior near the Vostok site (80%) and in the Southwest Ross Sea (50%), an effect that decreased towards the coast and along the Antarctic slope. Victoria Land received snowfall atypically with respect to other Antarctica areas in terms of pathway (eastern instead of western), seasonality (summer instead of winter) and velocity (old air age). Geopotential height patterns at 500 hPa at low (>10 days) and high (2-6 days) frequencies during snowfall cycles at two core sites showed large positive anomalies at low frequencies developing in the Tasman Sea-Eastern Indian Ocean at higher latitudes (60-70 S) than normal. This could be considered part of an atmospheric blocking event, with transient eddies acting to decelerate westerlies in a split region area and accelerate the flow on the flanks of the low-frequency positive anomalies. (orig.)

Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution vs. long-range transported dust

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

2013-07-01

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust or dust/biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust/biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a 40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for

Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

2014-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases (from the CalWater 2011 field campaign) with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02). In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by a few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present, but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology, including cloud dynamics and the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental

Polar-Tropical Coupling in the Winter Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, R.

2017-12-01

A distinct pattern of enhanced equatorial potential vorticitygradients during QBO westerly anomalies, enhanced subtropicalgradients during QBO easterlies, is used to motivate a new formulationof dynamical coupling between the tropics and winter polar vortexbased on remote transfer of finite amplitude wave activity defined interms of lateral potential vorticity displacements. While the weakpotential vorticity gradients in the surf zone imply laterallyevanescent Rossby waves, transfer of wave activity from the polarvortex edge to the subtropical barrier or to the QBO westerly phaseequatorial gradients arises from nonlocality of potential vorticityinversion and the large horizontal displacements of the vortex edge.Our approach goes beyond the traditional description of the effect ofQBO wind anomalies on linear wave propagation through the stratospherevia wave reflection at the zero wind line; linear wave theory isappealing but neglects the long horizontal and vertical wavelengthsinvolved and the inhomogeneous background potential vorticity. Aparticular issue of outstanding interest is whether and how therelatively shallow QBO anomalies can influence the deep verticallypropagating waves on the edge of the winter stratospheric polarvortex. Process studies with a mechanistic model with prescribed QBOand carefully controlled high-latitude wave forcing are analyzed,guided by a reexamination of meteorological reanalysis, to address howsuch a dynamical linkage may influence in particular the resonantexcitation of the winter vortex, and the occurrence ofvortex-splitting sudden warming events. We quantify the associatedtransfer of wave activity from vortex edge to the tropics, considerunder what conditions this becomes a significant source of easterlymomentum in the driving of the QBO itself, and how the structure ofthe Brewer-Dobson circulation varies in response to the location ofthe QBO westerly winds in any given winter.

Spatial patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation influence on mass balance variability of European glaciers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Marzeion

2012-06-01

Full Text Available We present and validate a set of minimal models of glacier mass balance variability. The most skillful model is then applied to reconstruct 7735 individual time series of mass balance variability for all glaciers in the European Alps and Scandinavia. Subsequently, we investigate the influence of atmospheric variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO on the glaciers' mass balances.

We find a spatial coherence in the glaciers' sensitivity to NAO forcing which is caused by regionally similar mechanisms relating the NAO forcing to the mass balance: in southwestern Scandinavia, winter precipitation causes a correlation of mass balances with the NAO. In northern Scandinavia, temperature anomalies outside the core winter season cause an anti-correlation between NAO and mass balances. In the western Alps, both temperature and winter precipitation anomalies lead to a weak anti-correlation of mass balances with the NAO, while in the eastern Alps, the influences of winter precipitation and temperature anomalies tend to cancel each other, and only on the southern side a slight anti-correlation of mass balances with the NAO prevails.

Trends in total and daily precipitation indices in japan from 1901 to 2000

OpenAIRE

Nagata, Rena; Zaiki, Masumi

2008-01-01

Long-term trends in seasonal precipitation amount and daily precipitation indices were investigated for spring, summer, autumn, and winter with a daily precipitation dataset for Japan from 1901 to 2000. Heavy precipitation in spring and summer has significantly increased along the west coast of Japan. Such changes in precipitation have resulted in the increased heavy precipitation intensity. For autumn and winter, total precipitation significantly decreased in the Kanto district and central J...

The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

2017-09-01

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

2018-06-01

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

2006-11-15

A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

Why rainfall response to El Niño over Maritime Continent is weaker and non-uniform in boreal winter than in boreal summer

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Leishan; Li, Tim

2017-11-01

Why rainfall response to El Niño is uniform and stronger over the Maritime Continent (MC) during El Niño developing summer and fall but is weaker and non-uniform during El Niño mature winter is investigated through the diagnosis of anomalous large-scale circulation patterns and a local moisture budget analysis. It is found that when anomalous Walker cells across the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean are strengthened toward El Niño mature winter, a low-level ascending motion anomaly starts to develop over western MC in northern fall due to topographic lifting (near Sumatra) and anomalous wind convergence (near west Kalimantan). Easterly anomalies, as a part of an anomalous anticyclone in South China Sea (SCS) that is developed during El Niño and a part of the south-easterly from Java Sea associated with anomalous Walker Circulation, bump into the mountain ridge of Sumatra and induce ascending motion anomalies near Sumatra. Meanwhile, the anomalous north-easterly in the southern flank of the anomalous anticyclone over SCS and south-easterly over Java Sea converge into west Kalimantan, leading to ascending motion there. The anomalous ascending motion tend to advect mean moisture upward to moisten lower troposphere in situ. This low-level moistening eventually sets up a convectively unstable stratification and induces a positive precipitation anomaly in the western MC. How the mechanism discussed here is relevant to previous hypotheses and how processes during El Niño might differ during La Niña are discussed.

North Atlantic Oscillation and moisture transport towards the Iberian Peninsula during winter

Science.gov (United States)

Ordóñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of interannual variability in winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Recent works have identified the most important sources of moisture that supply the IP during different seasons of the year, including the nearby western Mediterranean and the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic corridor that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the IP, and the IP itself (Gimeno et al., 2010). However, although rainfall is directly related to the moisture supply, the relationship between the water vapor transported towards IP and the NAO phase remains unclear. In this work the moisture transport towards IP was analyzed using a Lagrangian diagnosis method, which relies on the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by evaluating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories. Here we have computed (for each day) the evolution of moisture of the particles bound for Iberia up to 10 days prior to their arrival. The analysis was constrained to the winter (DJF) season, responsible for the largest fraction of precipitation, for the 20 years of ECMWF Reanalyses ERA40 dataset from 1980 to 2000. The contribution of the NAO phase on the water budgets is examined using composites of the obtained (E - P) fields for the 5 most extreme positive and negative NAO years of the study period. Results confirm that the IP is dominated by positive (negative) E-P anomalies during positive (negative) NAO phase. Additionally an anomalous water vapor sink (source) region located approximately over the Gulf Stream is found during positive (negative) NAO phase. Gimeno L., Nieto R., Trigo R.M. , Vicente-Serrano S.M, Lopes-Moreno J.I., (2010) "Where does the Iberian Peninsula moisture come from? An answer based on a Lagrangian approach". J. Hydrometeorology, 11, 421-436 DOI: 10.1175/2009JHM1182.1.

Influence of Subtropical Jetstream on Arabian Gulf Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Sandeep, S.; Pauluis, O.; Ravindran, A. M.; TP, S.

2017-12-01

The Arabian Gulf and surrounding regions are predominantly arid. However, this region hosts a large population due to the intense economic activity that is centered on the exploration of natural resources in and around the Arabian Gulf. Thus, few precipitation events that occur during boreal winter are important for society and ecology of this region. The mechanisms of winter precipitation over the Gulf are not well understood, partly due to a lack of long term meteorological observation. Here we explore the dynamics of Arabian Gulf winter precipitation events using available observations and a high resolution atmospheric model simulation. Our analyses show that the northern Gulf receives about six times more precipitation than the southern Gulf. Often, the southern Gulf precipitation forms as a result of downstream development of northern Gulf disturbance. The southward movement of northern Gulf disturbances is influenced by the location of subtropical jet. The probability of a northern Gulf precipitating weather system to move south is higher when the subtropical jet is located equatorward of 30°N. The equatorward position of jet favors the penetration of mid-latitude weather systems over the Arabian Peninsula, which in turn pushes the Arabian anticyclone eastward and triggers moisture transport from the Arabian Sea that is essential for southern Gulf precipitation events.

A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Shuntai [NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle, Inc., McLean, VA (United States); L' Heureux, Michelle; Weaver, Scott; Kumar, Arun [NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-04-15

The influence of the MJO on the continental United States (CONUS) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation is examined based on 30 years of daily data from 1979-2008. Composites are constructed for each of the eight phases of the Wheeler-Hendon MJO index over 12 overlapping three-month seasons. To ensure that the MJO signal is distinguished from other patterns of climate variability, several steps are taken: (a) only days classified as ''MJO events'' are used in the composites, (b) statistical significance of associated composites is assessed using a Monte Carlo procedure, and (c) intraseasonal frequencies are matched to the unfiltered data. Composites of other fields are also shown in order to examine how the SAT and precipitation anomalies are associated with large-scale circulations providing a link between the tropics and extratropics. The strongest and most significant MJO effects on SAT are found during the northern winter seasons. When enhanced convection is located over the equatorial Indian Ocean, below-average SAT tends to occur in New England and the Great Lakes region. As enhanced tropical convection shifts over the Maritime continent, above-average SAT appears in the eastern states of the US from Maine to Florida. The MJO influence on precipitation is also significant during northern winter seasons. When enhanced convection is located over the Maritime continent, more precipitation is observed in the central plains of the US. Enhanced precipitation also occurs over the west coast of the US when convective activity is stronger over the Indian Ocean. During the northern summer and fall, the MJO impact on precipitation is mainly significant at lower latitudes, over Mexico and southeastern US. (orig.)

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

2015-11-09

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, M.

2016-12-01

Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, C. L.; Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.

2007-05-01

Previous work has established that the dominant modes of Pacific SSTs influence the summer climate of North America through large-scale forcing, and this effect is most pronounced during the early part of the season. It is hypothesized, then, that land surface influences become more dominant in the latter part of the season as remote teleconnection influences diminish. As a first step toward investigation of this hypothesis in a regional climate model (RCM) framework, the statistically signficant spatiotemporal patterns of variability and covariability in North American precipitation (specified by the standardized precipitation index, or SPI), soil moisture, and vegetation are determined for timescales from a month to six months. To specify these respective data we use: CPC gauge- derived precipitation (1950-2000), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model and NOAH Model NLDAS soil moisture and temperature, and the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-NDVI). The principal statistical tool used is multiple taper frequency singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD), and this is supplemented by wavelet analysis for specific areas of interest. The significant interannual variability in all of these data occur at a timescale of about 7 to 9 years and appears to be the integrated effect of remote SST forcing from the Pacific. Considering the entire year, the spatial pattern for precipitation resembles the typical ENSO winter signature. If the summer season is considered seperately, the out of phase relationship between precipitation anomalies in the central U.S. and core monsoon region is apparent. The largest soil moisture anomalies occur in the central U.S., since precipitation in this region has a consistent relationship to Pacific SSTs for the entire year. This helps to explain the approximately 20 year periodicity in drought conditions there. Unlike soil moisture, the largest anomalies in vegetation occur in the

Impact of the Winter North Pacific Oscillation on the Surface Air Temperature over Eurasia and North America: Sensitivity to the Index Definition

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shangfeng; Song, Linye

2018-06-01

This study analyzes the impact of the winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) on the surface air temperature (SAT) variations over Eurasia and North America based on six different NPO indices. Results show that the influences of the winter NPO on the SAT over Eurasia and North America are sensitive to the definition of the NPO index. The impact of the winter NPO on the SAT variations over Eurasia (North America) is significant (insignificant) when the anticyclonic anomaly associated with the NPO index over the North Pacific midlatitudes shifts westward and pronounced northerly wind anomalies appear around Lake Baikal. By contrast, the impact of the winter NPO on the SAT variations over Eurasia (North America) is insignificant (significant) when the anticyclonic anomaly over the North Pacific related to the NPO index shifts eastward and the associated northerly wind anomalies to its eastern flank extend to North America. The present study suggests that the NPO definition should be taken into account when analyzing the impact of the winter NPO on Eurasian and North American SAT variations.

The isotopic composition of precipitation from a winter storm – a case study with the limited-area model COSMOiso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Yoshimura

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Stable water isotopes are valuable tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, and potentially provide useful information also on weather-related processes. In order to further explore this potential, the water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated into the limited-area model COSMO. In a first case study, the new COSMOiso model is used for simulating a winter storm event in January 1986 over the eastern United States associated with intense frontal precipitation. The modelled isotope ratios in precipitation and water vapour are compared to spatially distributed δ18O observations. COSMOiso very accurately reproduces the statistical distribution of δ18O in precipitation, and also the synoptic-scale spatial pattern and temporal evolution agree well with the measurements. Perpendicular to the front that triggers most of the rainfall during the event, the model simulates a gradient in the isotopic composition of the precipitation, with high δ18O values in the warm air and lower values in the cold sector behind the front. This spatial pattern is created through an interplay of large scale air mass advection, removal of heavy isotopes by precipitation at the front and microphysical interactions between rain drops and water vapour beneath the cloud base. This investigation illustrates the usefulness of high resolution, event-based model simulations for understanding the complex processes that cause synoptic-scale variability of the isotopic composition of atmospheric waters. In future research, this will be particularly beneficial in combination with laser spectrometric isotope observations with high temporal resolution.

Warm and Dry Spells (WDS in Austral Winter over Central South America

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P. Satyamurty

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The horizontal and vertical structure of unusually warm and dry spells (WDS over the central parts of South America during the winter and post-winter months (JJAS are studied. During WDS the mean temperature and humidity anomalies over central Brazil are about +4.1°C and −13.2%, respectively. The mean duration of WDS is 11 days and their mean frequency is less than one per year during the months of JJAS. Apparently, WDS have no preference for the phase of ENSO. Widespread and persistent subsidence in the middle troposphere is observed in tropical Brazil during WDS, which renders the lower tropospheric air warm and dry. The negative anomalies of the specific humidity are observed to be associated with the subsidence regions. A strong, slow moving ridge in the eastern South Pacific and a low-pressure center in northern Argentina are important surface characteristics during the WDS. A more detailed investigation of two specific WDS events, a strong event (August–September 1999 and a moderate one (June 2002, shows a blocking-like situation in the 500-hPa geopotential and surface pressure fields in the Pacific. The South Atlantic subtropical high somewhat approaches the continent. Strong northerlies over the central and eastern parts of Brazil are also observed in the lower troposphere. During WDS the regional circulation acquires summertime characteristics, except for the absence of precipitation, and the circulation in the meridional plane is in the opposite sense from the Hadley circulation. A frontal system, supported by a 500-hPa trough, advances into central Brazil, causing the dissipation of the anomalous situation.

Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

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J. C. Stager

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400–1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

MAO Wen-shu; WANG Qian-qian; PENG Jun; LI Yong-hua

2008-01-01

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), composite analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer (colder) than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases (decreases) in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.

Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

CERN Document Server

Singh, G P

2003-01-01

The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

Characteristics of uranium geological anomaly in Northern Guangdong province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xinwu; Cheng Danping

2001-01-01

The geological anomaly characteristics of uranium deposit region in northern Guangdong are discussed on the aspects of uranium source, structure and thermal activity. Uranium deposits usually occur in the uranium-rich background field. Structure activity provides favourable places for the transportation and precipitation of uranium. Uranium deposits are formed in the central and edge of frequent thermal activity. The assembled entropy anomaly field is the synthetical display for above three anomaly. The biggest assembled entropy anomaly is the most favourable space field for forming uranium deposit

Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three-River Headwater Region from 1961 to 2010

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YI Xiangsheng; LI Guosheng; YIN Yanyu

2013-01-01

Based on a monthly dataset of precipitation time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region (THRHR) of Qinghai Province,China,the spatio-temporal variation and abrupt change analysis of precipitation were examined by using moving average,linear regression,spline interpolation,the Mann-Kendall test and so on.Major conclusions were as follows.(1) The long-term annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area indicated an increasing trend with some oscillations during 1961-2010; however,the summer precipitation in the Lantsang (Lancang) River Headwater Region (LARHR),and the autumn precipitation in the Yangtze River Headwater Region (YERHR) of the THRHR decreased in the same period.(2) The amount of annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions was greater in the 1980s and 2000s.The springs were fairly wet after the 1970s,while the summers were relatively wet in the 1960s,1980s and 2000s.In addition,the amount of precipitation in the autumn was greater in the 1970s and 1980s,but it was relatively less for the winter precipitation,except in the 1990s.(3) The normal values of spring,summer,winter and annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions all increased,but the normal value of summer precipitation in the LARHR had a negative trend and the normal value of winter precipitation declined in general.(4) The spring and winter precipitation increased in most of the THRHR.The summer,autumn and annual precipitation increased mainly in the marginal area of the west and north and decreased in the regions of Yushu,Zaduo,Jiuzhi and Banma.(5) The spring and winter precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions showed an abrupt change,except for the spring precipitation in the YARHR.The abrupt changes of spring precipitation were mainly in the late 1980s and early 1990s,while the abrupt changes of winter precipitation were primary in the mid-to late 1970s

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

3800 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Reconstruction from the Northwest Yucatan Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Bastos, Alicia; Islebe, Gerald A.; Torrescano-Valle, Nuria

2013-01-01

Precipitation over the last 3800 years has been reconstructed using modern pollen calibration and precipitation data. A transfer function was then performed via the linear method of partial least squares. By calculating precipitation anomalies, it is estimated that precipitation deficits were greater than surpluses, reaching 21% and <9%, respectively. The period from 50 BC to 800 AD was the driest of the record. The drought related to the abandonment of the Maya Preclassic period featured a 21% reduction in precipitation, while the drought of the Maya collapse (800 to 860 AD) featured a reduction of 18%. The Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a period of positive phases (3.8–7.6%). The Little Ice Age was a period of climatic variability, with reductions in precipitation but without deficits. PMID:24391940

Anomalies of hydrological cycle components during the 2007 heat wave in Bulgaria

Science.gov (United States)

Mircheva, Biliana; Tsekov, Milen; Meyer, Ulrich; Guerova, Guergana

2017-12-01

Heat waves have large adverse social, economic and environmental effects which include increased mortality, transport restrictions and a decreased agricultural production. The estimated economic losses of the 2007 heat wave in South-east Europe exceed 2 billion EUR with 19 000 hospitalisation in Romania only. Understanding the changes of the hydrological cycle components is essential for early forecasting of heat wave occurrence. Valuable insight of two components of the hydrological cycle, namely Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA), is now possible using observations from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. In this study anomalies of temperature, precipitation, IWV and TWS in 2007 are compared to 2003-2013 period for Sofia, Bulgaria. In 2007, positive temperature anomalies are observed in January, February and July. There are negative IWV and precipitation anomalies in July 2007 that coincides with the heat wave in Bulgaria. TWSA in 2007 are negative in January, May and from July to October being largest in August. Long-term trends of: 1) temperatures have a local maximum in March 2007, 2) TWSA has a local minimum in May 2007, 3) IWV has a local minimum in September 2007, and 4) precipitation has a local maximum in July 2007. The TWSA interannual trends in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland show similar behaviour as indicated by cross correlation coefficients of 0.9 and 0.7 between Bulgaria and Hungary and Bulgaria and Poland respectively. ALADIN-Climate describes the anomalies of temperature and IWV more successfully than those of precipitation and TWS.

Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

1993-12-01

The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.

1993-01-01

The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)

Influence of Atlantic SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector

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E. Kestenare

2003-06-01

Full Text Available Recent studies of observational data suggest that Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean have a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector in early winter and in spring. After reviewing this work and showing that the spring signal is part of a global air-sea interaction, we analyze for comparison an ensemble of simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model in T42 resolution forced by the observed distribution of SST and sea ice, and a simulation with the ECHAM4/OPA8 coupled model in T30 resolution. In the two cases, a significant influence of the Atlantic on the atmosphere is detected in the Atlantic-European sector. In the forced mode, ECHAM4 responds to SST anomalies from early spring to late summer, and also in early winter. The forcing involves SST anomalies not only in the tropical Atlantic, but also in the whole tropical band, suggesting a strong ENSO influence. The modeled signal resembles that seen in the observations in spring, but not in early winter. In the coupled mode, the Atlantic SST only has a significant influence on the atmosphere in summer. Although the SST anomaly is confined to the Atlantic, the summer signal shows some similarity with that seen in the forced simulations. However, there is no counterpart in the observations.

Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Watanabe, Masahiro

2014-01-01

Abnormal sea-ice retreat over the Barents Sea during early winter has been considered a leading driver of recent midlatitude severe winters over Eurasia. However, causal relationships between such retreat and the atmospheric circulation anomalies remains uncertain. Using a reanalysis dataset, we found that poleward shift of a sea surface temperature front over the Gulf Stream likely induces warm southerly advection and consequent sea-ice decline over the Barents Sea sector, and a cold anomaly over Eurasia via planetary waves triggered over the Gulf Stream region. The above mechanism is supported by the steady atmospheric response to the diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream region obtained with a linear baroclinic model. The remote atmospheric response from the Gulf Stream would be amplified over the Barents Sea region via interacting with sea-ice anomaly, promoting the warm Arctic and cold Eurasian pattern. (letter)

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season

Science.gov (United States)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-05-01

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

2018-02-01

Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella

2017-08-01

Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

Science.gov (United States)

Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

2017-12-01

The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

The Relationships Between Insoluble Precipitation Residues, Clouds, and Precipitation Over California's Southern Sierra Nevada During Winter Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Creamean, Jessie M.; White, Allen B.; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Spangenberg, Douglas A.; Prather, Kimberly A.

2016-01-01

Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

OpenAIRE

Cayan, Daniel R.

1991-01-01

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Winter Wheat and Cropping System Performance across Precipitation Gradients in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tai M. Maaz

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Ecological instability and low resource use efficiencies are concerns for the long-term productivity of conventional cereal monoculture systems, particularly those threatened by projected climate change. Crop intensification, diversification, reduced tillage, and variable N management are among strategies proposed to mitigate and adapt to climate shifts in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW. Our objectives were to assess these strategies across iPNW agroecological zones and time for their impacts on (1 winter wheat (WW (Triticum aestivum L. productivity, (2 crop sequence productivity, and (3 N fertilizer use efficiency. Region-wide analysis indicated that WW yields increased with increasing annual precipitation, prior to maximizing at 520 mm yr−1 and subsequently declining when annual precipitation was not adjusted for available soil water holding capacity. While fallow periods were effective at mitigating low nitrogen (N fertilization efficiencies under low precipitation, efficiencies declined as annual precipitation exceeded 500 mm yr−1. Variability in the response of WW yields to annual precipitation and N fertilization among locations and within sites supports precision N management implementation across the region. In years receiving <350 mm precipitation yr−1, WW yields declined when preceded by crops rather than summer fallow. Nevertheless, WW yields were greater when preceded by pulses and oilseeds rather than wheat across a range of yield potentials, and when under conservation tillage practices at low yield potentials. Despite the yield penalty associated with eliminating fallow prior to WW, cropping system level productivity was not affected by intensification, diversification, or conservation tillage. However, increased fertilizer N inputs, lower fertilizer N use efficiencies, and more yield variance may offset and limit the economic feasibility of intensified and diversified cropping systems.

Atmospheric forcing in the occurrence of precipitation extremes in Iberia: comparison between the eastern and western sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, J. A.; Mendes, A. R.

2009-09-01

reanalysis project. Although the study is conducted for all seasons, only the results for winter are presented here. In general, our results clearly support the previously stated hypotheses. In fact, there is a clear connection between precipitation deficits in western Iberia and the presence of an anomalously strong anticyclonic ridge over the Eastern North Atlantic, which presents a warm-core equivalent barotropic structure. However, in eastern Iberia, the latter dynamical structure is significantly weakened, particularly in Valencia, where the regional orography leads to a strong mitigation of the Atlantic influences and no clear connection between its precipitation extremes and large-scale anomalies is found. In this particular case, local/regional processes are largely dominant in triggering rainfall conditions.

Stable isotopic characteristic of Taiwan's precipitation: A case study of western Pacific monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Tsung-Ren; Wang, Chung-Ho; Huang, Chi-Chao; Fei, Li-Yuan; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Hwong, Jeen-Lian

2010-01-01

The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic features of precipitation in Taiwan, an island located at the western Pacific monsoon area, are presented from nearly 3,500 samples collected during the past decade for 20 stations. Results demonstrate that moisture sources from diverse air masses with different isotopic signals are the main parameter in controlling the precipitation's isotope characteristics. The air mass from polar continental (Pc) region contributes the precipitation with high deuterium excess values (up to 23‰) and relatively enriched isotope compositions (e.g., - 3.2‰ for δ 18O) during the winter with prevailing northeasterly monsoon. By contrast, air masses from equatorial maritime (Em) and tropical maritime (Tm) supply the precipitation with low deuterium excess values (as low as about 7‰) and more depleted isotope values (e.g., - 8.9‰ and - 6.0‰ for δ 18O of Tm and Em, respectively) during the summer with prevailing southwesterly monsoon. Thus seasonal differences in terms of δ 18O, δD, and deuterium excess values are primarily influenced by the interactions among various precipitation sources. While these various air masses travel through Taiwan, secondary evaporation effects further modify the isotope characteristics of the inland precipitation, such as raindrop evaporation (reduces the deuterium excess of winter precipitation) and moisture recycling (increases the deuterium excess of summer precipitation). The semi-quantitative estimations in terms of evaluation for changes in the deuterium excess suggest that the raindrop evaporation fractions for winter precipitation range 7% to 15% and the proportions of recycling moisture in summer precipitation are less than 5%. Additionally, the isotopic altitude gradient in terms of δ 18O for summer precipitation is - 0.22‰/100 m, greater than - 0.17‰/100 m of winter precipitation. The greater isotopic gradient in summer can be attributed to a higher temperature vs. altitude gradient

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2013-01-01

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leung, L. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Prather, K. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ralph, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Rosenfeld, D. [The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel); Spackman, R. [Science and Technology Corporation (STC), Hampton, VA (United States); DeMott, P. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Fairall, C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hagos, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hughes, M. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Long, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rutledge, S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Waliser, D. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States); Wang, H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-09-01

The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associated with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

Science.gov (United States)

Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

2013-12-01

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical and dynamical downscaling assessments of precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hertig, Elke; Seubert, Stefanie; Jacobeit, Jucundus [Augsburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography; Paxian, Andreas; Vogt, Gernot; Paeth, Heiko [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography and Geology

2012-02-15

Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area have been defined by different percentile-based indices of extreme precipitation for autumn and winter: the number of events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, percentage, total amount, and mean daily intensity of precipitation from these events. Results from statistical downscaling applying canonical correlation analysis as well as from dynamical downscaling using the regional climate model REMO are mapped for the 1961-1990 baseline period as well as for the magnitude of change for the future time slice 2021-2050 in relation to the former period. Direct output of the coupled global circulation model ECHAM5 is used as an additional source of information. A qualitative comparison of the two different downscaling techniques indicates that under the present climate both the dynamical and the statistical techniques have skill to reproduce extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area. A good representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events arises from the statistical downscaling approach, whereas the intensity of such events is adequately modelled by the dynamical downscaling. Concerning the change of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area until the mid-21{sup st} century, it is projected that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will decrease in most parts of the Mediterranean area in autumn and winter. The change of the mean intensity of such events shows a rather heterogeneous pattern with intensity increases in winter most likely at topographical elevations exposed to the West, where the uplift of humid air profits by the increase of atmospheric moisture under climate change conditions. For the precipitation total from events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, widespread decreases are indicated in autumn, whereas in winter increases occur over the western part of the Iberian Peninsula and southern France, and reductions over

Analyzing coastal precipitation using TRMM observations

OpenAIRE

R. H. Heiblum; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

2011-01-01

The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds, and surface friction increase in transition from sea to land can create persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the winter the Mediterranean sea is usually warmer than t...

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo

Satellite Monitoring of Vegetation Response to Precipitation and Dust Storm Outbreaks in Gobi Desert Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuki Sofue

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Recently, droughts have become widespread in the Northern Hemisphere, including in Mongolia. The ground surface condition, particularly vegetation coverage, affects the occurrence of dust storms. The main sources of dust storms in the Asian region are the Taklimakan and Mongolian Gobi desert regions. In these regions, precipitation is one of the most important factors for growth of plants especially in arid and semi-arid land. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between precipitation and vegetation cover dynamics over 29 years in the Gobi region. We compared the patterns between precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for a period of 29 years. The precipitation and vegetation datasets were examined to investigate the trends during 1985–2013. Cross correlation analysis between the precipitation and the NDVI anomalies was performed. Data analysis showed that the variations of NDVI anomalies in the east region correspond well with the precipitation anomalies during this period. However, in the southwest region of the Gobi region, the NDVI had decreased regardless of the precipitation amount, especially since 2010. This result showed that vegetation in this region was more degraded than in the other areas.

IOD influence on the early winter tibetan plateau snow cover: diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuan, Chaoxia; Tozuka, Tomoki; Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan)

2012-10-15

Using diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation, the detailed mechanism of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence on the early winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover (EWTPSC) is clarified. In early winter of pure positive IOD years with no co-occurrence of El Nino, the anomalous dipole diabatic heating over the tropical Indian Ocean excites the baroclinic response in the tropics. Since both baroclinic and barotropic components of the basic zonal wind over the Arabian Peninsula increase dramatically in early winter due to the equatorward retreat of the westerly jet, the baroclinic mode excites the barotropic Rossby wave that propagates northeastward and induces a barotropic cyclonic anomaly north of India. This enables the moisture transport cyclonically from the northern Indian Ocean toward the Tibetan Plateau. The convergence of moisture over the plateau explains the positive influence of IOD on the EWTPSC. In contrast, the basic zonal wind over the Arabian Peninsula is weak in autumn. This is not favorable for excitation of the barotropic Rossby wave and teleconnection, even though the IOD-related diabatic heating anomaly in autumn similar to that in early winter exists. This result explains the insignificant (significant positive) partial correlation between IOD and the autumn (early winter) Tibetan Plateau snow cover after excluding the influence of ENSO. The sensitivity experiment forced by the IOD-related SST anomaly within the tropical Indian Ocean well reproduces the baroclinic response in the tropics, the teleconnection from the Arabian Peninsula, and the increased moisture supply to the Tibetan Plateau. Also, the seasonality of the atmospheric response to the IOD is simulated. (orig.)

Multi-pentad prediction of precipitation variability over Southeast Asia during boreal summer using BCC_CSM1.2

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chengcheng; Ren, Hong-Li; Zhou, Fang; Li, Shuanglin; Fu, Joshua-Xiouhua; Li, Guoping

2018-06-01

Precipitation is highly variable in space and discontinuous in time, which makes it challenging for models to predict on subseasonal scales (10-30 days). We analyze multi-pentad predictions from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.2 (BCC_CSM1.2), which are based on hindcasts from 1997 to 2014. The analysis focus on the skill of the model to predict precipitation variability over Southeast Asia from May to September, as well as its connections with intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The effective precipitation prediction length is about two pentads (10 days), during which the skill measured by anomaly correlation is greater than 0.1. In order to further evaluate the performance of the precipitation prediction, the diagnosis results of the skills of two related circulation fields show that the prediction skills for the circulation fields exceed that of precipitation. Moreover, the prediction skills tend to be higher when the amplitude of ISO is large, especially for a boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The skills associated with phases 2 and 5 are higher, but that of phase 3 is relatively lower. Even so, different initial phases reflect the same spatial characteristics, which shows higher skill of precipitation prediction in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Finally, filter analysis is used on the prediction skills of total and subseasonal anomalies. The results of the two anomaly sets are comparable during the first two lead pentads, but thereafter the skill of the total anomalies is significantly higher than that of the subseasonal anomalies. This paper should help advance research in subseasonal precipitation prediction.

Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

2018-04-01

Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

Relationships between the climate change and the grain filling of winter wheat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shang, Z.; Jiang, D.

2016-01-01

The present study is based on the material in a grain filling rate experiment of winter wheat and hourly weather data organised by Xinghua city of Jiangsu Province. The aims are to objectively evaluate the possible influences of the temperature, precipitation, sunshine at the different time of the same day on the grain filling rate of winter wheat. The grain filling rate evaluation model of climate change is firstly developed, and then, the model calculation results are compared with the observed data. The along the changes of the microclimate, changes of the grain filling rate of winter wheat, which is not same in the gradual, rapid and slow increase stages. The changes in grain filling rate of winter wheat, which were caused by variations of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration, showed periodic fluctuation. Variation in temperature resulted in 1.36 g d/sup -1/(10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change; variation in precipitation resulted in -1.35 g d/sup -1/. (10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change; and variation in sunshine duration resulted in 0.07 g d/sup -1/ (10a)/sup -1/ of grain filling rate change. Three samples showed a grain filling rate change of 0.08 g d/sup -1/(10a)/sup -1/. These findings indicate that the increase in temperature and sunshine duration caused the elevation of grain filling rate, whereas the increase in precipitation decreased the grain filling rate. Therefore, monitoring and predication capability of Meteorological disasters, such as drought caused by high temperature, should be strengthened to ensure the favourable weather condition and improve the grain filling rate through scientific methods such as artificial precipitation. (author)

Climatic anomalies in Northern South China Sea during 1986-1987 El Nino

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen Tegu (Academia Sinica, Beijing (China)); Zhou Qiang

1990-05-01

In this paper, the climatic anomalies in Northern South China Sea (NSCS) during 1986-1987 El Nino were analyzed according to meteorological and hydrographic observation data. The results showed that the most apparent anomalies were: (1) continuously weaker monsoon strength, (2) continuously much higher South China Sea High Pressure strength; (3) in 1987 only six typhoons occurred in NSCS (four less than normal), with the first typhoon occurring on 25 June, (about one month later than usual); (4) positive air temperature anomaly, negative annual precipitation and evaporation anomaly; (5) sea surface temperature and surface salinity anomaly was positive; (6) monthly mean sea level was 1 to 10cm lower than normal.

Impact of vegetation feedback at subseasonal & seasonal timescales on precipitation over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Y.; Wang, G.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the

NESDIS Blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Products

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The blended Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product is derived from multiple sensors/satellites. The Percentage of TPW normal (PCT), or TPW anomaly, shows the...

Winter Pea: Promising New Crop for Washington's Dryland Wheat-Fallow Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William F. Schillinger

2017-05-01

Full Text Available A 2-year tillage-based winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.-summer fallow (WW-SF rotation has been practiced by the vast majority of farmers in the low-precipitation (<300 mm annual rainfed cropping region of east-central Washington and north-central Oregon for 140 years. Until recently, alternative crops (i.e., those other than WW so far tested have not been as economically viable or stable as WW-SF. A 6-year field study was conducted near Ritzville, WA (292 mm avg. annual precipitation to determine the yield and rotation benefits of winter pea (Pisum sativum L. (WP. Two 3-year rotations were evaluated: WP-spring wheat (SW-SF vs. WW-SW-SF. Winter pea yields averaged 2,443 vs. 4,878 kg/ha for WW. No fertilizer was applied to WP whereas 56 kg N and 11 kg S/ha were applied to WW. Winter pea used significantly less soil water than WW. Over the winter months, a lesser percentage of precipitation was stored in the soil following WP compared to WW because: (i very little WP residue remained on the soil surface after harvest compared to WW, and (ii the drier the soil, the more precipitation is stored in the soil over winter. However, soil water content in the spring was still greater following WP vs. WW. Soil residual N in the spring (7 months after the harvest of WP and WW was greater in WP plots despite not applying fertilizer to produce WP. Spring wheat grown after both WP and WW received the identical quantity of N, P, and S fertilizer each year. Average yield of SW was 2,298 and 2,011 kg/ha following WP and WW, respectively (P < 0.01. Adjusted gross economic returns for these two rotation systems were similar. Based partially on the results of this study, numerous farmers in the dry WW-SF region have shown keen interest in WP and acreage planted WP in east-central Washington has grown exponentially since 2013. This paper provides the first report of the potential for WP in the typical WW-SF region of the inland Pacific Northwest (PNW.

A method for deterministic statistical downscaling of daily precipitation at a monsoonal site in Eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yonghe; Feng, Jinming; Liu, Xiu; Zhao, Yadi

2017-12-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) is a method that acquires the local information required for hydrological impact assessment from large-scale atmospheric variables. Very few statistical and deterministic downscaling models for daily precipitation have been conducted for local sites influenced by the East Asian monsoon. In this study, SD models were constructed by selecting the best predictors and using generalized linear models (GLMs) for Feixian, a site in the Yishu River Basin and Shandong Province. By calculating and mapping Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the gridded standardized values of five large-scale variables and daily observed precipitation, different cyclonic circulation patterns were found for monsoonal precipitation in summer (June-September) and winter (November-December and January-March); the values of the gridded boxes with the highest absolute correlations for observed precipitation were selected as predictors. Data for predictors and predictands covered the period 1979-2015, and different calibration and validation periods were divided when fitting and validating the models. Meanwhile, the bootstrap method was also used to fit the GLM. All the above thorough validations indicated that the models were robust and not sensitive to different samples or different periods. Pearson's correlations between downscaled and observed precipitation (logarithmically transformed) on a daily scale reached 0.54-0.57 in summer and 0.56-0.61 in winter, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between downscaled and observed precipitation reached 0.1 in summer and 0.41 in winter. The downscaled precipitation partially reflected exact variations in winter and main trends in summer for total interannual precipitation. For the number of wet days, both winter and summer models were able to reflect interannual variations. Other comparisons were also made in this study. These results demonstrated that when downscaling, it is appropriate to combine a correlation

A preliminary characterization of the spatial variability of precipitation at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, A.L.; Ambos, D.S.

1994-01-01

Isohyetal maps of precipitation and numerical models for simulating precipitation are needed to help characterize natural infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. A geostatistical analysis of measured precipitation accumulated from storm periods. Precipitation was measured during a 3.8 year period from January 1990 to October, 1993 using a network of precipitation gages. A total of 34 winter-type storms and 12 summer-type storm, categorized using synoptic weather records, were analyzed using the 1st and 2nd statistical moments and sample variograms. Average standardized variograms indicated good spatial correlation for both storm types with only slight differences in the general spatial structure. Coefficients of variation and average relative variograms indicated that summer storms are characterized by greater variability as compared to winter storms. Models were fitted to the average summer and winter standarized variograms for each storm using the mean storm depth and the coefficient of variation as scaling parameters. Isohyetal maps of 4 representative storms were created using the standarized models. Results indicate that standarized models can be used to simulate the spatial distribution of precipitation depth, provided that the 1st and 2nd moments are known or can be estimated, and that identifiable deterministic trends can be included in the models. A single, fixed model representing the spatial variability of precipitation at Yucca Mountain is not recommended

Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2018-01-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these

Meridional distribution and seasonal variation of stable oxygen isotope ratio of precipitation in the Southern Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kayo Nakamura

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The stable oxygen isotope ratio(δ^O in precipitation is known to have important meridional and seasonal variations, but there are almost no measurements of δ^O in precipitation over polar oceans. The present research took advantage of 4 opportunities for in situ observations in summer and winter at high latitudes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, we analyzed samples of precipitation at Syowa Station in 2008 to obtain year-round data. Based on these data, we consider the meridional and seasonal variations of δ^O in precipitation over the Southern Ocean. In general, δ^O decreases with increasing latitude, and is lower in winter than in summer. The latitude gradient is stronger in winter. At 60°S, δ^O is -5.4‰ and -11.3‰ in summer and winter, respectively, while the corresponding figures at 66°S are -10.5‰ and -20.8‰. These results will help us understand the mechanisms of the salinity distribution and its variation in the Antarctic Ocean.

SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Collins, M.; Hazeleger, W.

2013-01-01

Clear precipitation trends have been observed in Europe over the past century. In winter, precipitation has increased in north-western Europe. In summer, there has been an increase along many coasts in the same area. Over the second half of the past century precipitation also decreased in southern

The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Taschetto

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The Community Climate Model (CCM3 from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed.

A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM and spring (SON precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF and winter (JJA rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent.

An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO. Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

2001-05-01

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Zheng-hong; QIN Jun

2003-01-01

Through linear regression analysis to the trend of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation of 72 meteorological stations in Hubei Province from 1961 to 1995, it is revealed that: l) annual precipitation was increasing by 61.0mm/10a in the eastern part of Hubei (112°E as a dividing line) and decreasing by 34.9mm/10a in the western part; 2) precipitation in winter and summer (January, February, March, June and July) was increasing in almost whole province which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the south to the north. The precipitation in spring, autumn and winter (April, September, November and December) was decreasing in most of the areas which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the east to the west. March and December were transition periods between two spatial distribution pattems mentioned above; 3) the eastem part of Hubei has beome one of precipitation increasing centers in China. The results was consistent with the trend that more frequent flood and drought events happened in Hubei Province which are more different in spatial and temporal scales.

Precipitation Indices Low Countries

Science.gov (United States)

van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.

2009-09-01

Since 1995, KNMI published a series of books(1), presenting an annual reconstruction of weather and climate in the Low Countries, covering the period AD 763-present, or roughly, the last millennium. The reconstructions are based on the interpretation of documentary sources predominantly and comparison with other proxies and instrumental observations. The series also comprises a number of classifications. Amongst them annual classifications for winter and summer temperature and for winter and summer dryness-wetness. The classification of temperature have been reworked into peer reviewed (2) series (AD 1000-present) of seasonal temperatures and temperature indices, the so called LCT (Low Countries Temperature) series, now incorporated in the Millennium databases. Recently we started a study to convert the dryness-wetness classifications into a series of precipitation; the so called LCP (Low Countries Precipitation) series. A brief outline is given here of the applied methodology and preliminary results. The WMO definition for meteorological drought has been followed being that a period is called wet respectively dry when the amount of precipitation is considerable more respectively less than usual (normal). To gain a more quantitative insight for four locations, geographically spread over the Low Countries area (De Bilt, Vlissingen, Maastricht and Uccle), we analysed the statistics of daily precipitation series, covering the period 1900-present. This brought us to the following definition, valid for the Low Countries: A period is considered as (very) dry respectively (very) wet if over a continuous period of at least 60 days (~two months) cq 90 days (~three months) on at least two out of the four locations 50% less resp. 50% more than the normal amount for the location (based on the 1961-1990 normal period) has been measured. This results into the following classification into five drought classes hat could be applied to non instrumental observations: Very wet period

Spatiotemporal Variability and Change of the South China Spring Precipitation during 1961–2012

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Hong-Lan Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to understand spatiotemporal variability and change of spring precipitation of South China and their relations to atmospheric circulations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis and rotated EOF (REOF are used to reveal dominant spatial structures of precipitation anomaly and Mann-Kendall testing method to determine the temporal locations of abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the spring precipitation of the South China has a domain uniform structure; the second is dominated by a spatial dipole; and the third contains six variability centers. 1980s was the decade of the largest amount of precipitation while 1960s the decade of the smallest amount of precipitation. The spring precipitation also appeared to have a decreasing trend since 2000. We also find that spring precipitation of the South China has experienced a few abrupt changes: sudden increment at 1964, sudden decrement at 2002, and sudden increment at 1995. In addition to these abrupt changes, the precipitation could also be characterized by variability of multiple temporal scales, with dominant periodicities of 4 years, 8 years, and 14 years. The South China spring precipitation is also closely tied to the atmospheric circulations: when Aleutian Low strengthens, westerly weakens, and the center of the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts southeastward in the early spring; and the South China precipitation tends to be abundant (positive anomaly. In contrast, when Ural ridge strengthens, the southern branch of the East Asian trough weakens and the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northwestward in the early spring, the South China precipitation tends to be reduced (negative anomaly.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis 90-Day Seasonal Forecast of Precipitation

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) precipitation forecast is a 90-day (seasonal) outlook of US surface precipitation anomalies. The ECCA uses...

The Consequences of Precipitation Seasonality for Mediterranean-Ecosystem Vegetation of South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Cramer, Michael D; Hoffman, M Timm

2015-01-01

Globally, mediterranean-climate ecosystem vegetation has converged on an evergreen, sclerophyllous and shrubby growth form. The particular aspects of mediterranean-climate regions that contribute to this convergence include summer droughts and relatively nutrient-poor soils. We hypothesised that winter-precipitation implies stressful summer droughts and leaches soils due to greater water availability (i.e. balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; P-PET) during cold periods. We conducted a comparative analysis of normalised difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and edaphic and climate properties across the biomes of South Africa. NDVI was strongly correlated with both precipitation and P-PET (r2 = 0.8). There was no evidence, however, that winter-precipitation reduces NDVI in comparison to similar amounts of summer-precipitation. Base saturation (BS), a measure of soil leaching was, however, negatively related to P-PET (r2 = 0.64). This led to an interaction between P-PET and BS in determining NDVI, indicating the existence of a trade-off between water availability and soil nutrients that enables NDVI to increase with precipitation, despite negative consequences for soil nutrient availability. The mechanism of this trade-off is suggested to be that water increases nutrient accessibility. This implies that along with nutrient-depauperate geologies and long periods of time since glaciation, the winter-precipitation may have contributed to the highly leached status of the soils. Since many of the ecophysiological characteristics of mediterranean-ecosystem flora are associated with low nutrient availabilities (e.g. evergreen foliage, sclerophylly, cluster roots), we conclude that mediterranean-climates promote convergence of growth-forms in these regions through high leaching capacity.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

Science.gov (United States)

Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

Science.gov (United States)

Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

Strong signatures of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges in winter PM10 over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ordonez, C.; Garrido-Perez, J. M.; Garcia-Herrera, R.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric blocking is associated with persistent, slow-moving high pressure systems that interrupt the eastward progress of extratropical storm systems at middle and high latitudes. Subtropical ridges are low latitude structures manifested as bands of positive geopotential height anomalies extending from sub-tropical latitudes towards extra-tropical regions. We have quantified the impact of blocks and ridges on daily PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 µm) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase) for the winter period of 2000-2010. For this purpose, the response of the PM10 concentrations to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in two main longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30˚-0˚ W; European, EUR, 0˚-30˚ E) is examined. EUR blocking is associated with a collapse of the boundary layer as well as reduced wind speeds and precipitation occurrence, yielding large positive anomalies which average 12 µg m-3 over the whole continent. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50˚-60˚ N and the increased occurrence of precipitation over northern-central Europe on days with ATL ridges favour the ventilation of the boundary layer and the impact of washout processes, reducing PM10 concentrations on average by around 8 µg m-3. The presence of EUR blocks is also concurrent with an increased probability of exceeding the European air quality target (50 µg m-3 for 24-h averaged PM10) and the local 90th percentiles for this pollutant at many sites, while the opposite effect is found for ridges. In addition, the effect of synoptic persistence on the PM10 concentrations is particularly strong for EUR blocks. Finally, we have found that the effect of both synoptic patterns can partly control the interannual variability of winter mean PM10 at many sites of north-western and central Europe, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.80 for southern Germany. These results indicate that the response of the

Interannual Variability of Regional Hadley Circulation Intensity Over Western Pacific During Boreal Winter and Its Climatic Impact Over Asia-Australia Region

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng

2018-01-01

This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.

Correlation and SVD Analysis of Anomalous Spring Precipitation in Northwest China and Sea Surface Temperature in Key Region in Recent 50 Years

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

[Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Key region in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on monthly average precipitation in Northwest China and global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) grid data, the effects of SSTA in equatorial central and eastern Pacific on spring precipitation in Northwest China were discussed by means of correlation and SVD analysis. [Result] For spring precipitation in Nor...

Projected precipitation changes in South America: a dynamical downscaling within CLARIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensson, Anna A. [Centra de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Menendez, Claudio G. [Centra de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Dept. de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Ruscica, Romina; Alexander, Peter [Dept. de Fisica, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Samuelsson, Patrick; Willen, Ulrika [Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2010-06-15

Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under A1B scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50% in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. (orig.)

Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

2018-03-13

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

Isotopic evidence of boron in precipitation originating from coal burning in Asian continent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakata, Masahiro; Natsumi, Masahiro; Tani, Yukinori

2010-01-01

The boron concentration and isotopic composition (δ 11 B) of precipitation collected from December 2002 to March 2006 at three sites on the Japan Sea coast were measured. Those sites have been considerably affected by the long-range transport of air pollutants from the Asian continent during winter and spring when the airflows from the Asian continent are predominant. The boron concentration in the precipitation increased primarily during winter whereas the δ 11 B decreased during winter or spring. It is assumed that this decrease in δ 11 B is not associated with a Rayleigh distillation process, because the previous δD values of the precipitation collected at a site on the Japan Sea coast did not decrease in the same manner. A weak correlation (r 2 =0.13-0.24, P 11 B and the nonsea-salt sulfate (nss-SO 4 2- )/B ratio at each site, suggesting that boron in the precipitation originate primarily from two sources. The first source, which is characterized by high δ 11 B and nss-SO 4 2- /B=0, is seawater. At the northern site, the enrichment factor for boron in the precipitation relative to seawater approached unity during winter. This implies that much of the boron in the precipitation is derived from unfractionated sea salts rather than gaseous boron evaporated from seawater. The second source is characterized by low δ 11 B and high nss-SO 4 2- /B ratio. Most of the nss-SO 4 2- in the precipitation originates from anthropogenic combustion activities in the Asian continent based on the previous model calculations. Coal accounts for a major portion of the total primary energy supply in China. Moreover, coal enriches boron and represents generally negative δ 11 B values. Hence, we propose that the emission of boron from coal burning is the most likely second source. Thus, boron isotopes may be useful as tracers of coal-burning plumes from the Asian continent. (author)

Decadal Variation of Precipitation in Saudi Arabia induced by Agricultural Irrigation

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, M. H.; Wey, H. W.; Wada, Y.; IM, E. S.; Chien, R. Y.; Wu, R. J.

2017-12-01

Decadal variation of wet-season precipitation has been found in the arid region of central Saudi Arabia. 1980s has been a rather wet decade compared with the decades before. Previous studies have mentioned that the irrigation moisture may contribute to the precipitation anomalies in Saudi Arabia. In the current study, we show from observational data that the contribution of the variation comes mostly from February to May. As the irrigation is a localized forcing, we therefore use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate the response of the land-atmosphere interaction to the wet soil moisture resulted from additional irrigation moisture supply. Preliminary result shows in the irrigated simulation that precipitation in central Saudi Arabia is enhanced, indicating the possible link between irrigation expansion in the 1980s and the decadal precipitation variation over central Saudi Arabia. We propose it is the anomalous convergence induced by irrigation as well as additional moisture that contribute to the enhanced precipitation over heavily irrigation region in the central Saudi Arabian. In addition, analysis on the daily precipitation from the WRF outputs indicates that positive rainfall anomalies tend to happen when there is rainfall originally; that is, irrigation enhances rainfall but not creates rainfall.

Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.

Science.gov (United States)

Bintanja, R; Selten, F M

2014-05-22

Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Siderophore-mediated oxidation of Ce and fractionation of HREE by Mn (hydr)oxide-coprecipitation and sorption on MnO2: Experimental evidence for negative Ce-anomalies in abiogenic manganese precipitates

Science.gov (United States)

Krämer, Dennis; Tepe, Nathalie; Bau, Michael

2014-05-01

We conducted experiments with Rare Earths and Yttrium (REY), where the REY were sorbed on synthetic manganese dioxide as well as on coprecipitating manganese (hydr)oxide in the presence and absence of the siderophore desferrioxamine-B (DFOB). Siderophores are a group of globally abundant biogenic complexing agents which are excreted by plants and bacteria to enhance the bioavailability of Fe in oxic environments. The model siderophore used in this study, DFOB, is a hydroxamate siderophore occurring in almost all environmental settings with concentrations in the nanomolar to millimolar range and is one of the most thoroughly studied siderophores. In the absence of siderophores and other organic ligands, trivalent Ce is usually surface-oxidized to tetravalent Ce during sorption onto manganese (hydr)oxides. Such Mn precipitates, therefore, often show positive Ce anomalies, whereas the ambient solutions exhibit negative Ce anomalies (Ohta and Kawabe, 2001). In marked contrast, however, REY sorption in the presence of DFOB produces negative Ce anomalies in the Mn precipitates and a distinct and characteristic positive Ce anomaly in the residual siderophore-bearing solution. Furthermore, the heavy REY with ionic radii larger than the radius of Sm are also almost completely prevented from sorption onto the Mn solid phases. Sorption of REY onto Mn (hydr)oxides in the presence of DFOB creates a distinct and pronounced fractionation of Ce and the heavy REY from the light and middle REY. Apart from Ce, which is oxidized in solution by the siderophore, the distribution of the other REY mimics the stability constants for multi-dentate complexes of REY with DFOB, as determined by Christenson & Schijf (2011). Heavier REY are forming stronger complexes (and are hence better "protected" from sorption) than light REY, excluding Ce. Preferential partitioning of Ce into the liquid phase during the precipitation of Mn (hydr)oxides has only rarely been described for natural Mn (hydr

The Role of Indian Ocean SST Anomalies in Modulating Regional Rainfall Variability and Long-term Change

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, C. C.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

2008-12-01

In a series of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, the potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating low- to mid-latitude precipitation around the Indian Ocean rim countries is explored. The relative importance of various characteristic tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean SST poles, both individually and in combination, to regional precipitation changes is quantified. A mechanism for the rainfall modulation is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce changes in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, resulting in a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Across western and southern regions of Australia, rainfall anomalies are found to be due to modulations in the meridional thickness gradient, thermal wind, and baroclinicity, leading to changes in the moisture flux onto the continent. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent land masses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell, leading to variations in precipitation of opposite sign across western and eastern regions of the basin. Links between long-term changes in Indian Ocean surface properties and regional precipitation changes in Indian Ocean rim countries are also discussed in a broader context with implications for water management and seasonal forecasting.

Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

2006-01-01

The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

Satellite magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic crust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. E. Alsdorf

2000-06-01

Full Text Available Spatially and temporally static crustal magnetic anomalies are contaminated by static core field effects above spherical harmonic degree 12 and dynamic, large-amplitude external fields. To extract crustal magnetic anomalies from the measurements of NASA's Magsat mission, we separate crustal signals from both core and external field effects. In particular, we define Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 field and use spectral correlation theory to reduce them for external field effects. We obtain a model of Antarctic crustal thickness by comparing the region's terrain gravity effects to free-air gravity anomalies derived from the Earth Gravity Model 1996 (EGM96. To separate core and crustal magnetic effects, we obtain the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations from their gravity effect via Poisson's theorem for correlative potentials. We compare the pseudo-magnetic effect of the crustal thickness variations to field differences between degrees 11 and 13 by spectral correlation analysis. We thus identify and remove possible residual core field effects in the Magsat anomalies relative to the degree 11 core field. The resultant anomalies reflect possible Antarctic contrasts due both to crustal thickness and intracrustal variations of magnetization. In addition, they provide important constraints on the geologic interpretation of aeromagnetic survey data, such as are available for the Weddell Province. These crustal anomalies also may be used to correct for long wavelength errors in regional compilations of near-surface magnetic survey data. However, the validity of these applications is limited by the poor quality of the Antarctic Magsat data that were obtained during austral Summer and Fall when south polar external field activity was maximum. Hence an important test and supplement for the Antarctic crustal Magsat anomaly map will be provided by the data from the recently launched Ørsted mission, which will yield coverage

Understanding the predictability of seasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2006-05-01

Using multiple long-term simulations of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST), it is shown that the model has high skill in simulating the February-March-April (FMA) rainy season over northeast Brazil (Nordeste). Separate sensitivity experiments conducted with the same model that entails suppression of all variability except for the climatological annual cycle in SST over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans reveal that this skill over Nordeste is sensitive to SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, the spatial pattern of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that correlate with FMA Nordeste rainfall are in fact a manifestation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. This study also analyzes the failure of the COLA AGCM in capturing the correct FMA precipitation anomalies over Nordeste in several years of the simulation. It is found that this failure occurs when the SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean are large and not significantly correlated with contemporaneous SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In two of the relatively large ENSO years when the model failed to capture the correct signal of the interannual variability of precipitation over Nordeste, it was found that the meridional gradient of SST anomalies over the tropical Atlantic Ocean was inconsistent with the canonical development of ENSO. The analysis of the probabilistic skill of the model revealed that it has more skill in predicting flood years than drought. Furthermore, the model has no skill in predicting normal seasons. These model features are consistent with the model systematic errors.

Influences of two types of El Niño event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Haibo; Wu, Qigang; Wu, Zepeng

2018-01-01

Based on the HadISST1 and NCEP datasets, we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Niño event (CP-EL) and eastern Pacific El Niño event (EP-EL) on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Considering the remote effect of Indian Ocean warming, we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate. Results show that during the El Niño developing year of EP-EL, cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean. At the end of that autumn, all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs. However, considering the statistical significance, more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year. For further research, EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (EPI-EL) and CP El Niño accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (CPI-EL) events are classified. With the remote effects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies, the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific. For the EPI-EL developing year, large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May, and persist to the autumn of the El Niño decaying year. However, for the CPI-EL, weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Niño decaying spring. Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, distinct zonal SST gradient, atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Niño decaying years. Specifically, the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years, can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean. The atmospheric

Effect of precipitation bias correction on water budget calculation in Upper Yellow River, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Baisheng; Yang Daqing; Ma Lijuan

2012-01-01

This study quantifies the effect of precipitation bias corrections on basin water balance calculations for the Yellow River Source region (YRS). We analyse long-term (1959–2001) monthly and yearly data of precipitation, runoff, and ERA-40 water budget variables and define a water balance regime. Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are high in summer and low in winter. The basin water storage change is positive in summer and negative in winter. Monthly precipitation bias corrections, ranging from 2 to 16 mm, do not significantly alter the pattern of the seasonal water budget. The annual bias correction of precipitation is about 98 mm (19%); this increase leads to the same amount of evapotranspiration increase, since yearly runoff remains unchanged and the long-term storage change is assumed to be zero. Annual runoff and evapotranspiration coefficients change, due to precipitation bias corrections, from 0.33 and 0.67 to 0.28 and 0.72, respectively. These changes will impact the parameterization and calibration of land surface and hydrological models. The bias corrections of precipitation data also improve the relationship between annual precipitation and runoff. (letter)

On the winter anomaly of the night-to-day ratio of ozone in the middle to upper mesosphere in middle to high latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnemann, G. R.; Hartogh, P.; Jarchow, Ch.; Grygalashvyly, M.; Berger, U.

Long-term measurements of ozone by means of the microwave technique performed at Lindau (51.66°N, 10.13°E), Germany, revealed a winter anomaly of the night-to-day ratio (NDR) which is more clearly pronounced as the so-called tertiary nighttime ozone maximum. The domain of occurrence also differs somewhat from that of the nighttime ozone enhancement. The maximum winter-to-summer ratio amounts to a value of two to three in 70 km height. The annual variation of the NDR is modulated by oscillations of planetary time scale. 3D-calculations on the basis of the advanced GCM LIMA essentially reflect the observations but also show some typical differences which probably result from a somewhat too humid model atmosphere in middle latitudes. We analyzed the most important impacts on the middle mesospheric ozone. The strongest impacts are connected with the annual variation of water vapor and the so-called Doppler-Sonnemann effect considering the influence of the zonal wind on the chemistry due to the fact that ozone is subjected to an effective dissociation longer than molecular oxygen for an increasing solar zenith angle. Because of that the net odd oxygen production decreases faster than the formation of atomic oxygen from ozone which is involved in an odd oxygen destructing catalytic cycle. A shortening of the time of sunset by a west wind regime increases the nighttime ozone level relatively, whereas the daytime ozone is less influenced by the zonal wind in the domain considered.

Winter sea ice export from the Laptev Sea preconditions the local summer sea ice cover and fast ice decay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Itkin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.

pH and its frequency distribution patterns of Acid Precipitation in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitamura, Moritsugu; Katou, Takunori; Sekiguchi, Kyoichi

1991-01-01

The pH data was collected at the 29 stations in Phase-I study of Acid Precipitation Survey over Japan by Japan Environment Agency in terms of frequency distribution patterns. This study was undertaken from April 1984 to March 1988, which was the first survey of acid precipitation over Japan with identical sampling procedures and subsequent chemical analyses. While the annual mean pH at each station ranged from 4.4 to 5.5, the monthly mean varied more widely, from 4.0 to 7.1. Its frequency distribution pattern was obtained for each station, and further grouped into four classes: class I; a mode at the rank of pH 4.5∼4.9, class II; bimodes above and below this pH region, class III; a mode at a higher pH region, class IV; a mode at a lower pH region. The bimodal pattern was suggestive of precipitation with and without incorporation of significant amounts of basic aerosol of anthropogenic origin during descent of rain droplet. The patterns of the stations were also classified on a basis of summer-winter difference into another four classes. Winter pH values were appreciably lower than summer pHs in western parts of Japan and on Japan Sea coast, we attribute the winter pH to probable contribution of acidic pollutants transported by strong winter monsoon from Eurasian Continent. At most stations in northern and eastern Japan, the pH was higher in winter months reflecting more incorporation of basic materials, e.g., NH 4 + and Ca 2+ . (author)

Coastal precipitation formation and discharge based on TRMM observations

OpenAIRE

R. H. Heiblum; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

2011-01-01

The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds creates persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterrenean. During the winter the Mediterrenean sea is usually warmer than the adjacent land, resulting in frequent occurence of land breeze ...

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

Science.gov (United States)

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Changes in precipitating snow chemistry with seasonality in the remote Laohugou glacier basin, western Qilian Mountains.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Zhiwen; Qin, Dahe; Qin, Xiang; Cui, Jianyong; Kang, Shichang

2017-04-01

Trace elements in the atmosphere could provide information about regional atmospheric pollution. This study presented a whole year of precipitation observation data regarding the concentrations of trace metals (e.g., Cr, Ni, Cu, Mn, Cd, Mo, Pb, Sb, Ti, and Zn), and a TEM-EDX (transmission electron microscope-energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer) analysis from June 2014 to September 2015 at a remote alpine glacier basin in Northwest China, the Laohugou (LHG) basin (4200 m a.s.l.), to determine the regional scale of atmospheric conditions and chemical processing in the free troposphere in the region. The results of the concentrations of trace metals showed that, although the concentrations generally were lower compared with that of surrounding rural areas (and cities), they showed an obviously higher concentration and higher EFs in winter (DJF) and a relatively lower concentration and lower EFs in summer (JJA) and autumn (SON), implying clearly enhanced winter pollution of the regional atmosphere in Northwest China. The TEM observed residue in precipitation that was mainly composed of types of dust, salt-dust, BC-fly ash-soot, and organic particles in precipitation, which also showed remarked seasonal change, showing an especially high ratio of BC-soot-fly ash particles in winter precipitation compared with that of other seasons (while organic particles were higher in the summer), indicating significant increased anthropogenic particles in the winter atmosphere. The source of increased winter anthropogenic pollutants mainly originated from emissions from coal combustion, e.g., the regional winter heating supply for residents and cement factories in urban and rural regions of Northwest China. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric optical depth (AOD) also showed a significant influence of regional atmospheric pollutant emissions over the region in winter. In total, this work indicated that the atmospheric environment in western Qilian

Atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during dry and wet periods and extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Vuille, M.

1999-11-01

The atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during composite WET and DRY periods and during HIGH and LOW index phases of the Southern Oscillation was investigated using daily radiosonde data from Antofagasta (Chile), Salta (Argentina), Lima (Peru) and La Paz (Bolivia), daily precipitation data from the Bolivian/Chilean border between 18° and 19°S and monthly NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data between 1960 and 1998. In austral summer (DJF) the atmosphere during WET periods is characterized by easterly wind anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere over the Altiplano, resulting in increased moisture influx from the interior of the continent near the Altiplano surface. The Bolivian High is intensified and displaced southward. On the other hand, westerly winds usually prevail during DRY summer periods, preventing the moisture transport from the east from reaching the western Altiplano. Precipitation tends to be deficient over the western Bolivian Altiplano during LOW index summers and above average during HIGH and LOW+1 summers, but the relation is weak and statistically insignificant. LOW summers feature broadly similar atmospheric circulation anomalies as DRY periods and can be regarded as an extended DRY period or as a summer with increased occurrence of DRY episodes. HIGH summers, and to a lesser degree LOW+1 summers, are characterized by broadly opposite atmospheric characteristics, featuring a more pronounced Bolivian High located significantly further south, and easterly wind anomalies over the Altiplano. In winter (JJA) precipitation events are rare; these are associated with increased northerly and westerly wind components, reduced pressure and temperature, and increased specific humidity over the entire Altiplano. Atmospheric circulation anomalies during LOW periods are less pronounced in austral winter (JJA) than in summer, but generally feature similar changes (increased temperatures and a vertically

Fronts and precipitation in CMIP5 models for the austral winter of the Southern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Blázquez, Josefina; Solman, Silvina A.

2018-04-01

Wintertime fronts climatology and the relationship between fronts and precipitation as depicted by a group of CMIP5 models are evaluated over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The frontal activity is represented by an index that takes into account the vorticity, the gradient of temperature and the specific humidity at the 850 hPa level. ERA-Interim reanalysis and GPCP datasets are used to assess the performance of the models in the present climate. Overall, it is found that the models can reproduce adequately the main features of frontal activity and front frequency over the SH. The total precipitation is overestimated in most of the models, especially the maximum values over the mid latitudes. This overestimation could be related to the high values of precipitation frequency that are identified in some of the models evaluated. The relationship between fronts and precipitation has also been evaluated in terms of both frequency of frontal precipitation and percentage of precipitation due to fronts. In general terms, the models overestimate the proportion between frontal and total precipitation. In contrast with frequency of total precipitation, the frequency of frontal precipitation is well reproduced by the models, with the higher values located at the mid latitudes. The results suggest that models represent very well the dynamic forcing (fronts) and the frequency of frontal precipitation, though the amount of precipitation due to fronts is overestimated.

East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2016-04-01

The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

Validation of precipitation over Japan during 1985-2004 simulated by three regional climate models and two multi-model ensemble means

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishizaki, Yasuhiro [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Takayabu, Izuru [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

2012-07-15

We dynamically downscaled Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-25) for 60 regions of Japan using three regional climate models (RCMs): the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), modified RAMS version 4.3 (NRAMS), and modified Weather Research and Forecasting model (TWRF). We validated their simulations of the precipitation climatology and interannual variations of summer and winter precipitation. We also validated precipitation for two multi-model ensemble means: the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and an ensemble mean weighted according to model reliability. In the 60 regions NRAMS simulated both the winter and summer climatological precipitation better than JRA-25, and NHRCM simulated the wintertime precipitation better than JRA-25. TWRF, however, overestimated precipitation in the 60 regions in both the winter and summer, and NHRCM overestimated precipitation in the summer. The three RCMs simulated interannual variations, particularly summer precipitation, better than JRA-25. AEM simulated both climatological precipitation and interannual variations during the two seasons more realistically than JRA-25 and the three RCMs overall, but the best RCM was often superior to the AEM result. In contrast, the weighted ensemble mean skills were usually superior to those of the best RCM. Thus, both RCMs and multi-model ensemble means, especially multi-model ensemble means weighted according to model reliability, are powerful tools for simulating seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Japan under the current climate. (orig.)

The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

2018-02-01

The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.

Analyzing coastal precipitation using TRMM observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. H. Heiblum

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds, and surface friction increase in transition from sea to land can create persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the winter the Mediterranean sea is usually warmer than the adjacent land, resulting in frequent occurrence of land breeze that opposes the common synoptic winds. Using rain-rate vertical profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite, we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of average hydrometeor mass in clouds as a function of the distance from coastlines.

Results show that coastlines in the Eastern Mediterranean are indeed favored areas for precipitation formation. The intra-seasonal and diurnal changes in the distribution of hydrometeor mass indicate that the land breeze may likely be the main responsible mechanism behind our results.

The Recent Atlantic Cold Anomaly: Causes, Consequences, and Related Phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Josey, Simon A.; Hirschi, Joel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Duchez, Aurélie; Grist, Jeremy P.; Marsh, Robert

2018-01-01

Cold ocean temperature anomalies have been observed in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic on interannual to centennial timescales. Most notably, a large region of persistently low surface temperatures accompanied by a sharp reduction in ocean heat content was evident in the subpolar gyre from the winter of 2013-2014 to 2016, and the presence of this feature at a time of pervasive warming elsewhere has stimulated considerable debate. Here, we review the role of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in generating this cold anomaly and place it in a longer-term context. We also discuss the potential impacts of surface temperature anomalies for the atmosphere, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and European heat waves; contrast the behavior of the Atlantic with the extreme warm surface event that occurred in the North Pacific over a similar timescale; and consider the possibility that these events represent a response to a change in atmospheric planetary wave forcing.

Synoptic Disturbances Found in Precipitable Water Fields North of Equatorial Africa

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Patla, Jason

1999-01-01

The origin and structure of tropical synoptic scale precipitable water (PW) anomalies estimated from TOVS satellite observations are analyzed as they propagate eastward across northern Africa during MAM 1988...

Interdecadal change in the summer SST-precipitation relationship around the late 1990s over the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jiepeng; Wang, Xin; Zhou, Wen; Wen, Zhiping

2017-11-01

An interdecadal change in the air-sea interaction over the South China Sea (SCS) after the late 1990s has been identified using a local contemporaneous precipitation-sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation-SST tendency relationship. During 1979-1998, there is a negative precipitation-SST relationship over the SCS, with a larger magnitude over the northeastern SCS (NESCS) than over the southwestern SCS (SWSCS). The remote effect of warmer SST over the tropical Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in a strong anticyclone and suppressed rainfall over the SCS and western North Pacific. Due to greater mixed-layer depth over the SWSCS than over the NESCS, entrainment heat flux makes a larger contribution to a positive precipitation-SST tendency over the SWSCS than over the NESCS. The cloud-radiation effect has a dominant and positive contribution to the SST tendency over the NESCS, whereas it has a negative contribution to SST tendency over the SWSCS. In contrast, the precipitation-SST correlation becomes weakly negative over the NESCS and significantly positive over the SWSCS during 1999-2013. The CESM-CAM5 model demonstrates that cooler SST over the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) triggers a weak anticyclone, slightly suppressing rainfall over the SCS. The cloud-radiation effect still contributes mostly to a positive SST tendency over the NESCS. Warmer SST over the SWSCS induces an increase in surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence and causes enhanced rainfall. That offsets the remote effect of TCEP SST and results in a negative precipitation-SST tendency with negative cloud-radiation feedback. The interdecadal change in remote forcing to SCS rainfall around the late 1990s is related to the evolution of TCEP SST anomalies from the preceding winter to summer, which is possibly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Response of aboveground carbon balance to long-term, experimental shifts in precipitation seasonality is contingent on plant community type in cold-desert rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Reinhardt, K.; McAbee, K.; Germino, M. J.; Bosworth, A.

2016-12-01

Semi-arid rangelands have been identified as potential carbon (C) sinks. However, the degree of net C storage or release in water-limited systems is a function of precipitation amount and timing, as well as plant community composition. In northern latitudes of western North America, climate models predict increases in wintertime precipitation and decreases in summertime precipitation. In theory, this should boost C storage in cold-desert ecosystems that have deep-rooted woody plants due to greater wintertime soil water storage that enhances summertime productivity. However, there are few long-term, manipulative field-based studies investigating how shrub- and grass-dominated rangelands will respond to changing precipitation patterns. We measured aboveground C pools and fluxes at leaf, soil, and ecosystem scales over the 2014 growing season on plots that had supplemental precipitation added in either winter or summer for 21 years, in shrub- and exotic-bunchgrass-dominated plots. We hypothesized that increased winter precipitation would stimulate aboveground C uptake and storage relative to ambient conditions, in our cold-desert-adapted plant species. We further hypothesized that long-term gains in aboveground C storage due to precipitation manipulations would be greater in plots containing shrubs. Our hypotheses were generally supported: ecosystem C uptake and long-term biomass accumulation were greater in winter- and summer-irrigated plots compared to control plots in both vegetation communities. However, substantial increases in aboveground biomass occurred only in winter-irrigated plots that contained shrubs. Our findings suggest that increases in winter precipitation will enhance C storage of this widespread ecosystem, provided that the ecosystems have resisted conversion to exotic grassland.

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Yong-mei; REN Fu-min; LI Wei-jing; WANG Xiao-ling

2008-01-01

The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. Typhoon precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan, while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April - December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melanie A Harsch

Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

Science.gov (United States)

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

Science.gov (United States)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

Applying an orographic precipitation model to improve mass balance modeling of the Juneau Icefield, AK

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, A. C.; Hock, R.; Schuler, T.; Bieniek, P.; Aschwanden, A.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from glaciers in Southeast Alaska is expected to alter downstream ecological systems as runoff patterns change. To investigate these potential changes under future climate scenarios, distributed glacier mass balance modeling is required. However, the spatial resolution gap between global or regional climate models and the requirements for glacier mass balance modeling studies must be addressed first. We have used a linear theory of orographic precipitation model to downscale precipitation from both the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ERA-Interim to the Juneau Icefield region over the period 1979-2013. This implementation of the LT model is a unique parameterization that relies on the specification of snow fall speed and rain fall speed as tuning parameters to calculate the cloud time delay, τ. We assessed the LT model results by considering winter precipitation so the effect of melt was minimized. The downscaled precipitation pattern produced by the LT model captures the orographic precipitation pattern absent from the coarse resolution WRF and ERA-Interim precipitation fields. Observational data constraints limited our ability to determine a unique parameter combination and calibrate the LT model to glaciological observations. We established a reference run of parameter values based on literature and performed a sensitivity analysis of the LT model parameters, horizontal resolution, and climate input data on the average winter precipitation. The results of the reference run showed reasonable agreement with the available glaciological measurements. The precipitation pattern produced by the LT model was consistent regardless of parameter combination, horizontal resolution, and climate input data, but the precipitation amount varied strongly with these factors. Due to the consistency of the winter precipitation pattern and the uncertainty in precipitation amount, we suggest a precipitation index map approach to be used in combination with

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Interdecadal variation of April mean rainfall in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jae-Won; Kim, In-Gyum; Kim, Jeoung-Yun

2017-05-01

The statistical change-point analysis demonstrates that there is a climate regime shift in the April mean precipitation in Korea in 1981. The April mean precipitation in the years post-1981 showed a distinct decrease compared to the years pre-1981. This phenomenon was also noticed in China and Japan, excluding south China. One of the major causes for this decrease in April mean precipitation was the increased snow depth in the mid-latitude regions of continental East Asia. This resulted in a strengthened cold and dry anticyclone anomaly over continental East Asia and a relatively weakened subtropical anticyclone anomaly over the western North Pacific, thus forcing a continuation of the typical winter pressure pattern of "high-West and low-East" in East Asia in April. The strengthened northerly anomaly from this zonal pressure pattern anomaly played a significant role in restricting the northern movement of the subtropical anticyclone and preventing the inflow of warm and humid air into Korea.

Six centuries of May-July precipitation in Cyprus from tree rings

Science.gov (United States)

Touchan, Ramzi; Christou, Andreas K.; Meko, David M.

2014-12-01

A May-July precipitation nested reconstruction for the period AD 1415-2010 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pinus nigra, Pinus brutia, and Cedrus brevifolia for Cyprus. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1917-2010 show a good level of skill, and split-sample validation over 1917-2010 supports temporal stability of the tree-ring signal for precipitation. Smoothed annual time series of reconstructed precipitation and a tally of drought events in a moving time window indicate that the calibration period is not representative of the full range of drought variability. While convective precipitation in the warm season may be driven strongly by local factors, composite maps of geopotential height anomaly for dry years and wet years support large-scale atmospheric-flow influence related to height anomalies over the broader region of northeast Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Emerging positive trend in reconstruction residuals may be an early sign of exacerbation of drought stress on trees by recent warming in May-July. Future warming expected from increases in greenhouse gases poses a threat to forest resources in Cyprus and elsewhere in the Mediterranean.

Measurements of additional X-ray flux in South Atlantic magnetic anomaly region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, I.M.

1968-01-01

The purpose of this study is the calculation of the additional X-ray flux (20 - 150 KeV), produced by electron precipitation in the South Atlantic anomaly region. The kind of detector and the technique employed in the observations of this flux, utilizing stratospheric balloons as a means of transport of the payload across the anomaly region, are described. The results of two balloon launchins in Sao Jose dos Campos in July 1968, with the expected flux, are compared. (author) [pt

Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

2010-08-01

We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

2017-12-01

A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J.; Su, H.

2004-05-01

Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

Long Term Ground Based Precipitation Data Analysis in California's 7 Climate Divisions: Spatial and Temporal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, L.; El-Askary, H. M.; Rakovski, C.; Allai, M.

2015-12-01

California is an area of diverse topography and has what many scientists call a Mediterranean climate. Various precipitation patterns exist due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which can cause abnormal precipitation or droughts. As temperature increases mainly due to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, it is rapidly changing the climate of not only California but the world. An increase in temperature is leading to droughts in certain areas as other areas are experiencing heavy rainfall/flooding. Droughts in return are providing a foundation for fires harming the ecosystem and nearby population. Various natural hazards can be induced due to the coupling effects from inconsistent precipitation patterns and vice versa. Using wavelets and ARIMA modeling, we were able to identify anomalies of high precipitation and droughts within California's 7 climate divisions using NOAA's hourly precipitation data from rain gauges and compared the results with modeled data, SOI, PDO, and AMO. The identification of anomalies can be used to compare and correct remote sensing measurements of precipitation and droughts.

Early drought detection by spectral analysis of satellite time series of precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Hoek, Mattijn; Jia, Li; Zhou, J.; Zheng, Chaolei; Menenti, M.

2016-01-01

The time lag between anomalies in precipitation and vegetation activity plays a critical role in early drought detection as agricultural droughts are caused by precipitation shortages. The aim of this study is to explore a new approach to estimate the time lag between a forcing (precipitation)

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Accuracy of Tropical Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 Precipitation Data in Mid-High Latitudes of China

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Yancong; Jin, Changjie; Wang, Anzhi; Guan, Dexin; Wu, Jiabing; Yuan, Fenghui; Xu, Leilei

2015-01-01

Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS). This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998–2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale) indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%). Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these data are

Spatio-temporal analysis of the accuracy of tropical multisatellite precipitation analysis 3B42 precipitation data in mid-high latitudes of China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yancong Cai

Full Text Available Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS. This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998-2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%. Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

Science.gov (United States)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

Predictability of summer extreme precipitation days over eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Juan; Wang, Bin

2017-08-01

Extreme precipitation events have severe impacts on human activity and natural environment, but prediction of extreme precipitation events remains a considerable challenge. The present study aims to explore the sources of predictability and to estimate the predictability of the summer extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over eastern China. Based on the region- and season-dependent variability of EPDs, all stations over eastern China are divided into two domains: South China (SC) and northern China (NC). Two domain-averaged EPDs indices during their local high EPDs seasons (May-June for SC and July-August for NC) are therefore defined. The simultaneous lower boundary anomalies associated with each EPDs index are examined, and we find: (a) the increased EPDs over SC are related to a rapid decaying El Nino and controlled by Philippine Sea anticyclone anomalies in May-June; (b) the increased EPDs over NC are accompanied by a developing La Nina and anomalous zonal sea level pressure contrast between the western North Pacific subtropical high and East Asian low in July-August. Tracking back the origins of these boundary anomalies, one or two physically meaningful predictors are detected for each regional EPDs index. The causative relationships between the predictors and the corresponding EPDs over each region are discussed using lead-lag correlation analyses. Using these selected predictors, a set of Physics-based Empirical models is derived. The 13-year (2001-2013) independent forecast shows significant temporal correlation skills of 0.60 and 0.74 for the EPDs index of SC and NC, respectively, providing an estimation of the predictability for summer EPDs over eastern China.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

vajiheh mohammadi sabet

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

1989-01-01

Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Stisen, S.; Højberg, A. L.; Troldborg, L.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Christensen, B. S. B.; Olsen, M.; Henriksen, H. J.

2012-11-01

Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM) and the time-space variable (TSV) correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990-2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model), revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests). We conclude that TSV

On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Stisen

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM and the time–space variable (TSV correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990–2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model, revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests

The ionosphere - Morphology, development and coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, E. R.; Watkins, G. W.; Blix, T. A.; Thrane, E. V.; Entzian, G.

1987-08-01

The morphology of the MAP/WINE winter is examined, principally from ground-based and satellite observations. Winter anomaly is evident, occurring in bursts with a west to east shift in time. Auroral activity, particularly with reference to the times of major rocket salvoes, is generally low, with Andoya to the south of the auroral boundary in most cases. Minor stratospheric warmings, of which four occurred, are found to correlate with minima in radio wave absorption. Using data from a broad sector of Europe, coupling between the lower thermosphere and mesosphere is seen over large areas. Westerly winds are associated with high absorption (winter anomaly) and reversal to easterly winds with stratospheric warmings and low absorption. It is found possible to select cases, from amongst the MT series of rocket launchings, corresponding to quiet conditions, stratospheric warming, winter anomaly, and particle precipitation in the general absence of other effects. The observed effects all point to transport being a major factor, and the need to measure vertical transport over the range of geophysical conditions examined is highlighted.

The significant reduction of precipitation in Southern China during the Chinese Spring Festival

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J.; Gong, D.

2016-12-01

Long-term observational data from 2001 to 2012 over 339 stations were used to analyze the precipitation in southern China during the Chinese Spring Festival (CSF). It reveals both the precipitation frequency and precipitation intensity have a significant reduction around CSF holiday. From the second day to the sixth day after the Lunar New Year's Day, the daily mean precipitation frequency anomaly is -9%. At the same time, more than 90% stations in the study area have negative anomalies. The precipitation intensity has a continuous reduction from day 2 to day 4, which is up to 2mm in day 3. Other relevant variables, such as relative humidity and sunshine duration, have corresponding results to the precipitation's reduction during CSF. Atmospheric water vapor field's change leads to the reduction phenomenon. We analyzed the circulation configuration using the ERA-interim reanalysis data. It shows the anomalous north wind decrease the vapor and further affects the precipitation during the CSF period. The pollutants' concentration decreased around CSF, which may influence the meteorological field and lead to the anomalous north wind. Based on the S2S (sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project) data, we calculated the circulation forecast difference to CSF period between clean days and polluted days. The result proves the north wind's existence and suggests that the aerosol decrease because of human activity may be partly responsible for the precipitation reduction during CSF.

ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-11-01

In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. N. Zolotokrylin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

2017-09-01

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

KAUST Repository

Gong, Zhiqiang

2017-04-05

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts\\' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM\\'s summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

The effect of soil moisture anomalies on maize yield in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis

2018-03-01

Crop models routinely use meteorological variations to estimate crop yield. Soil moisture, however, is the primary source of water for plant growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the intraseasonal predictability of soil moisture to estimate silage maize yield in Germany. We also evaluate how approaches considering soil moisture perform compare to those using only meteorological variables. Silage maize is one of the most widely cultivated crops in Germany because it is used as a main biomass supplier for energy production in the course of the German Energiewende (energy transition). Reduced form fixed effect panel models are employed to investigate the relationships in this study. These models are estimated for each month of the growing season to gain insights into the time-varying effects of soil moisture and meteorological variables. Temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration are used as meteorological variables. Soil moisture is transformed into anomalies which provide a measure for the interannual variation within each month. The main result of this study is that soil moisture anomalies have predictive skills which vary in magnitude and direction depending on the month. For instance, dry soil moisture anomalies in August and September reduce silage maize yield more than 10 %, other factors being equal. In contrast, dry anomalies in May increase crop yield up to 7 % because absolute soil water content is higher in May compared to August due to its seasonality. With respect to the meteorological terms, models using both temperature and precipitation have higher predictability than models using only one meteorological variable. Also, models employing only temperature exhibit elevated effects.

Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

2018-03-01

Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, G.P.

2003-05-01

The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons followed by excess (deficient) rainfall over India using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanylised data for the period 1948-1995. The composite difference of temperature, wind, stream function and velocity potential during the years of high and low snow years at upper and lower levels have been studied in detail. The temperature at lower level shows maximum cooling up to 6 deg. C during DJF and this cooling persists up to 500hPa by 2 deg. C which gives rise to anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Caspian Sea and this may be one of the causes of the weakening of the summer monsoon circulation over Indian sub-continent. The stream function difference fields show westerly dominated over Arabian Sea at upper level in weak monsoon years. Velocity potential difference field shows complete phase reversal in the dipole structure from the deficient to excess Indian summer monsoon rainfall. (author)

Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

2007-01-01

We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

Interannual variability of western North Pacific SST anomalies and its impact on North Pacific and North America

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-12-01

In this study, the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its atmospheric teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) toward the North Pacific/North America during boreal winter are investigated. First, we defined the WNP mode as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of SST anomalies over the WNP region (100-165°E, 0-35°N), of which the principle component time-series are significantly correlated with several well-known climate modes such as the warm pool mode which is the second EOF mode of the tropical to North Pacific SST anomalies, North Pacific oscillation (NPO), North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO), and central Pacific (CP)-El Niño at 95% confidence level, but not correlated with the eastern Pacific (EP)-El Niño. The warm phase of the WNP mode (sea surface warming) is initiated by anomalous southerly winds through reduction of wind speed with the background of northerly mean winds over the WNP during boreal winter, i.e., reduced evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, the atmospheric response to the SST warming pattern and its diabatic heating further enhance the southerly wind anomaly, referred to the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. Thus, the WNP mode is developed and maintained through winter until spring, when the northerly mean wind disappears. Furthermore, it is also known that anomalous upper-level divergence associated with WNP mode leads to the NPO-like structure over the North Pacific and the east-west pressure contrast pattern over the North America through Rossby wave propagation, impacting the climate over the North Pacific and North America.

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Cullather, Richard I.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Boisvert, Linette N.; Brucker, Ludovic; Lee, Jae N.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2016-01-01

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Variation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Based on Elasticity Analysis

OpenAIRE

Li, Erhui; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Shao, Hongbo

2014-01-01

Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan wat...

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

2017-12-01

Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of

Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

2006-01-01

A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and heavy precipitation over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Yatagai, A. I.; Takayabu, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are known as the water-vapor rich part of the broader warm conveyor belt. Recently, several AR detection algorithms are proposed, and structures and that of statistical features are studied globally. Since Japan is a humid country located in the north of the warm pool, ARs, middle tropospheric fast moisture transport, might be an important moisture source for heavy precipitation events in Japan. The purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm of detection of ARs over Japan, and to investigate the possible relationship between them and Japanese heavy precipitation events. Since high spatial correlations were obtained between ERA-Interim reanalysis PW and that of SSM/I (microwave images), we used daily PW (0.75 degree grid) for detection of the ARs. Using 36 years (1979-2014) ERA-Interim, we defined daily smoothed PW climatology. Then, we detected AR area with daily anomaly of PW exceeding 10 mm. However, we exclude round-shaped (caused by Typhoon etc) area and the case of moisture transport not exceeding 30N/30S. The daily AR events over Japan (123-146E, 24-46N) are; 1013 cases for winter (DJF), 1722 for spring (MAM), 2229 for summer (JJA) and 1870 for autumn (SON) during the 36 years. They successfully include Hiroshima disaster event (19 August 2014, Hirota et al., 2015) and Amami heavy precipitation event (20 October 2010). The summer with large AR appearance (1998 and 2010) had negative SOI (La Nina), and lowest appearance year (1992) was the year of El Nino (positively significant SOI). Totally, more ARs come over Japan area in La Nina years, however, the seasonal statistics between SOI and the number of AR is not straightforward, indicating that it is difficult to explain ARs over Japan with only tropical inter-annual variability. We use APHRO-JP (Kamiguchi et al., 2010) daily gridded (0.05 degree) precipitation (1979-2011) over Japanese land areas for comparison. Among the 32 years (1979-2011), we had 82 cases of heavy

The asymmetric effects of El Niño and La Niña on the East Asian winter monsoon and their simulation by CMIP5 atmospheric models

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhun; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

2017-02-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the effect of La Niña events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Niño events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Niño events and stronger during La Niña winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Niño years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone during El Niño events and the WNP cyclone during La Niña events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Niña events is westward-shifted relative to its El Niño counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Niño and La Niña anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP. However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.

Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2011-01-01

Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar

Atmospheric Simulations Using OGCM-Assimilation SST: Influence of the Wintertime Japan Sea on Monthly Precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masaru Yamamoto Naoki Hirose

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Temperature data for the Japan Sea obtained from ocean data assimilation modeling is applied to atmospheric simulations of monthly precipitation for January 2005. Because the volume of flow of the Tsushima Warm Current was large during the winter season, the sea surface temperature (SST and coastal precipitation were higher in comparison with those in 2003. In order to evaluate influence of SST on monthly precipitation, we use surface temperatures of the Japan Sea in 2003 and 2005 for comparative simulations of precipitation for January 2005. The precipitation in experiment C (using cool SST data in 2003 is smaller than that in experiment W (using warm SST data in 2005 in a large part of the sea area, since the small evaporation results from the low SST over the upstream area of northwesterly winter monsoon. In the domain of 33.67 - 45.82°N and 125.89 - 142.9°E, the averaged evaporation and precipitation in experiment C are 10% and 13% smaller than those in experiment W, respectively. About half of the difference between the precipitations observed for January 2003 and 2005 in a heavy snow area is equal to the difference between the two simulations. Our results show that the mesoscale SST difference between 2003 and 2005 is related to the local difference of monthly precipitation.

Large-scale connection between aerosol optical depth and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sang-Woo; Yoon, Soon-Chang; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

2010-05-01

We investigated the large-scale connection between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the large-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anti-cyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115E and 30-35N and by 120-140E and 35-40N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

Numerical simulation of a winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

2014-09-01

This study analyzes the cause of rare occurrence of winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options, hail or graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. On evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that hail option shows similar precipitation intensity with TRMM observation than the graupel option and is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model simulated output with hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached upto the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of WD. Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Analysis of precipitation data in Bangladesh through hierarchical clustering and multidimensional scaling

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Md. Habibur; Matin, M. A.; Salma, Umma

2017-12-01

The precipitation patterns of seventeen locations in Bangladesh from 1961 to 2014 were studied using a cluster analysis and metric multidimensional scaling. In doing so, the current research applies four major hierarchical clustering methods to precipitation in conjunction with different dissimilarity measures and metric multidimensional scaling. A variety of clustering algorithms were used to provide multiple clustering dendrograms for a mixture of distance measures. The dendrogram of pre-monsoon rainfall for the seventeen locations formed five clusters. The pre-monsoon precipitation data for the areas of Srimangal and Sylhet were located in two clusters across the combination of five dissimilarity measures and four hierarchical clustering algorithms. The single linkage algorithm with Euclidian and Manhattan distances, the average linkage algorithm with the Minkowski distance, and Ward's linkage algorithm provided similar results with regard to monsoon precipitation. The results of the post-monsoon and winter precipitation data are shown in different types of dendrograms with disparate combinations of sub-clusters. The schematic geometrical representations of the precipitation data using metric multidimensional scaling showed that the post-monsoon rainfall of Cox's Bazar was located far from those of the other locations. The results of a box-and-whisker plot, different clustering techniques, and metric multidimensional scaling indicated that the precipitation behaviour of Srimangal and Sylhet during the pre-monsoon season, Cox's Bazar and Sylhet during the monsoon season, Maijdi Court and Cox's Bazar during the post-monsoon season, and Cox's Bazar and Khulna during the winter differed from those at other locations in Bangladesh.

Variations of net ecosystem production due to seasonal precipitation differences in a tropical dry forest of northwest Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Verduzco, Vivian S.; Garatuza-Payán, Jaime; Yépez, Enrico A.; Watts, Christopher J.; Rodríguez, Julio C.; Robles-Morua, Agustin; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2015-10-01

Due to their large extent and high primary productivity, tropical dry forests (TDF) are important contributors to atmospheric carbon exchanges in subtropical and tropical regions. In northwest Mexico, a bimodal precipitation regime that includes winter precipitation derived from Pacific storms and summer precipitation from the North American monsoon (NAM) couples water availability with ecosystem processes. We investigated the net ecosystem production of a TDF ecosystem using a 4.5 year record of water and carbon fluxes obtained from the eddy covariance method complemented with remotely sensed data. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer that respiration is mainly due to decomposition of soil organic matter accumulated from the prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the NAM. Precipitation characteristics during NAM have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF into the fall season. We identified that a threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of monsoon precipitation leads to a switch in the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This monsoonal precipitation threshold is typically exceeded one out of every 2 years. The close coupling of winter and summer periods with respect to carbon fluxes suggests that the annual carbon balance is dependent on precipitation amounts in both seasons in TDF ecosystems.

East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke; Yang, Hongqing

2017-12-01

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the major climate system in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. In this study, we developed two schemes to improve the forecasting skill of the interannual variability of the EAWM index (EAWMI) using the interannual increment prediction method, also known as the DY method. First, we found that version 2 of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) showed higher skill in predicting the EAWMI in DY form than not. So, based on the advantage of the DY method, Scheme-I was obtained by adding the EAWMI DY predicted by CFSv2 to the observed EAWMI in the previous year. This scheme showed higher forecasting skill than CFSv2. Specifically, during 1983-2016, the temporal correlation coefficient between the Scheme-I-predicted and observed EAWMI was 0.47, exceeding the 99% significance level, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by 12%. The autumn Arctic sea ice and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are two important external forcing factors for the interannual variability of the EAWM. Therefore, a second (hybrid) prediction scheme, Scheme-II, was also developed. This scheme not only involved the EAWMI DY of CFSv2, but also the sea-ice concentration (SIC) observed the previous autumn in the Laptev and East Siberian seas and the temporal coefficients of the third mode of the North Pacific SST in DY form. We found that a negative SIC anomaly in the preceding autumn over the Laptev and the East Siberian seas could lead to a significant enhancement of the Aleutian low and East Asian westerly jet in the following winter. However, the intensity of the winter Siberian high was mainly affected by the third mode of the North Pacific autumn SST. Scheme-I and Scheme-II also showed higher predictive ability for the EAWMI in negative anomaly years compared to CFSv2. More importantly, the improvement in the prediction skill of the EAWMI by the new schemes, especially for Scheme-II, could enhance the forecasting skill of

The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Zappa, Giuseppe; Hoskins, Brian; Shepherd, Ted

2016-04-01

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region which may have large socio-economic impacts. However, there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected precipitation reduction and this limits the possibility to inform effective adaptation planning. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the precipitation change and the time of emergence of the Mediterranean precipitation response. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. We also find that the precipitation response to climate change might already emerge from internal variability by 2025 relative to 1960-1990 according to the climate models with a large circulation response. This implies that it might soon be possible to test model projections using observations. Finally, some of the mechanisms which are important for the Mediterranean circulation response in the CMIP5 models are discussed.

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

2016-09-01

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

2013-12-01

On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For

Decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam modulated by the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP–NP) teleconnection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, R; Wang, S-Y; Gillies, R R; Cho, C; Buckley, B M; Truong, L H

2015-01-01

Autumn precipitation over Central Vietnam is associated with an increase in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that lead to frequent flooding and pose a significant threat to lives and property. The present analyses reveal a pronounced decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam within the 8–11 year frequency band that is modulated by the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP–NP) teleconnection. The negative phase of the EP–NP pattern is associated with a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South China Sea (SCS) that induces low-level convergence, enhances convection, and increases precipitation over Central Vietnam and adjacent islands including Hainan (China) and the Philippines. This circulation feature around the SCS is embedded in a large-scale circulation associated with SST anomalies across the Pacific Ocean—i.e., cooling in the Eastern and Central tropical Pacific sandwiched by warming in the North and South Pacific as well as the Western Pacific Ocean. The positive phase of the EP–NP features opposite SST and circulation anomalies, with the result being reduced rainfall in Central Vietnam. This out-of-phase relationship and shared decadal spectral coherence between the EP–NP index and autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam might be useful for future climate predictions and flood management. (letter)

Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

Science.gov (United States)

King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

2018-03-01

We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

Nuclear Winter: Implications for civil defense

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

1988-05-01

''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to the cooling hypothesized to occur in the Northern Hemisphere following a nuclear war as the result of the injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the paper was published in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. Three-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling---15 to 25/degree/C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought is likely to be a direct threat to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures. The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and this could present problems to third parties who are without food reserves. Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor an unexpected threat from nuclear war to the United States and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the United States due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year.

Spatial radon anomalies on active faults in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, C.-Y.; King, B.-S.; Evans, W.C.; Wei Zhang

1996-01-01

Radon emanation has been observed to be anomalously high along active faults in many parts of the world. We tested this relationship by conducting and repeating soil-air radon surveys with a portable radon meter across several faults in California. The results confirm the existence of fault-associated radon anomalies, which show characteristic features that may be related to fault structures but vary in time due to other environmental changes, such as rainfall. Across two creeping faults in San Juan Bautista and Hollister, the radon anomalies showed prominent double peaks straddling the fault-gouge zone during dry summers, but the peak-to-background ratios diminished after significant rain fall during winter. Across a locked segment of the San Andreas fault near Olema, the anomaly has a single peak located several meters southwest of the slip zone associated with the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Across two fault segments that ruptured during the magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake in 1992, anomalously high radon concentration was found in the fractures three weeks after the earthquake. We attribute the fault-related anomalies to a slow vertical gas flow in or near the fault zones. Radon generated locally in subsurface soil has a concentration profile that increases three orders of magnitude from the surface to a depth of several meters; thus an upward flow that brings up deeper and radon-richer soil air to the detection level can cause a significantly higher concentration reading. This explanation is consistent with concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen, measured in soil-air samples collected during one of the surveys. (Author)

Causes of the mid-latitudinal daytime NmF2 semi-annual anomaly at solar minimum

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlov, A. V.

2018-04-01

Ionospheric ionosonde and radar observations and theoretical calculations of the F2-layer peak altitude, hmF2, and number density, NmF2, over Millstone Hill during winter, spring, summer, and autumn geomagnetically quiet time periods at low solar activity are used to study the causes of the observed daytime NmF2 semi-annual anomaly. It follows from the model simulations that this anomalous phenomenon arises in the ionosphere mainly as a result of seasonal variations of the following atmospheric parameters: (1) the plasma drift along geomagnetic field lines due to corresponding changes in neutral wind components, (2) temperature and number densities of the neutral atmosphere, and (3) an optical thickness of the atmosphere caused by the dependence of the solar zenith angle on the day of the year for the same solar local time. Seasonal variations of the production rate unexcited O+ ions due to chemical reactions involving electronically excited O+ ions contribute to the formation of the NmF2 semi-annual anomaly during the predominant part of the existence time of this anomalous phenomenon. However, these seasonal variations are not significant, and this mechanism should be considered only as an additional source of the NmF2 semi-annual anomaly during its time of existence. The reactions of unexcited O+ ions with vibrationally excited N2 and O2 cause only weak changes of NmF2 and these changes are close in magnitude at a given solar local time during the winter, spring, summer, and autumn daytime conditions under consideration. Ignoring these reactions cannot produce a significant impact on the formation of the NmF2 semi-annual anomaly.

EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Oleynikov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

Influence of SST from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric circulation in the precipitation regime of basin from Brazilian SIN

Science.gov (United States)

Custodio, M. D.; Ramos, C. G.; Madeira, P.; de Macedo, A. L.

2013-12-01

The South American climate presents tropical, subtropical and extratropical features because of its territorial extension, being influenced by a variety of dynamical systems with different spatial and temporal scales which result in different climatic regimes in their subregions. Furthermore, the precipitation regime in South America is influenced by low-frequency phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic dipole and the Madden Julian Oscilation (MJO), in other words, is directly influenced by variations of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Due to the importance of the precipitation for many sectors including the planning of productive activities, such as agriculture, livestock and hydropower energy, many studies about climate variations in Brazil have tried to determine and explain the mechanisms that affect the precipitation regime. However, because of complexity of the climate system, and consequently of their impacts on the global precipitation regime, its interactions are not totally understood and therefore misrepresented in numerical models used to forecast climate. The precipitation pattern over hydrographic basin which form the Brasilian National Interconnected System (Sistema Interligado Nacional-SIN) are not yet known and therefore the climate forecast of these regions still presents considerable failure that need to be corrected due to its economic importance. In this context, the purpose here is to determine the precipitation patterns on the Brazilian SIN, based on SST and circulation observed data. In a second phase a forecast climate model for these regions will be produced. In this first moment 30 years (1983 to 2012) of SST over Pacific and Atlantic Ocean were analyzed, along with wind in 850 and 200 hPa and precipitation observed data. The precipitation patterns were analyzed through statistical analyses for interannual (ENSO) and intraseasonal (MJO) anomalies for these variables over the SIN basin. Subsequently, these

Spatial Distribution of Stable Isotopes of Precipitation in Kumamoto, Japan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anoue, M. T.; Shimada, J. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University (Japan); Ichiyanagi, K. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Japan)

2013-07-15

To understand the spatial distribution of stable isotopic compositions in precipitation, precipitation samples were collected every two weeks from november 2009 to december 2010 at 6 points in Kumamoto, Japan. The {delta}{sup 18}O and {delta}{sup 2}H of precipitation samples were measured by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Delta-S) with CO{sub 2}/H2{sub O} equivalent method for {delta}{sup 18}O and the chromium reduction method for {delta}2H. The range of {delta}{sup 18}O and d-excess (= {delta}{sup 2}H - 8 {delta}{sup 18}O) in precipitation is from -13.4 per mille to -3.5 per mille and from 2.6 per mille to 35.6 per mille , respectively. Seasonal variability of {delta}{sup 18}O (d-excess) in precipitation was low (high) in winter and high (low) in summer. The seasonal wind of this study area was dominated by south-westerly in summer (from June to August) and north-westerly in winter (from December to February). These wind regimes indicate seasonal variabilities of the water vapour pathway from the origin. In this paper the trend of inland effect to the {delta}{sup 18}O for both south-westerly and north-westerly are also considered. As a result, significant correlation between distances from the coastal line at south-westerly or north-westerly and {delta}{sup 18}O in precipitation was recognized, particularly from 18 February to 7 March and from 29 September to 19 October in 2010 (statistically significant with 5% level). Furthermore, in order to evaluate the course of precipitation, the column total of water vapour flux was considered in the whole period by using JRA-25 and JCDAS. It is interesting that the inland effect corresponded to the column total of water vapour flux at south-westerly (north-westerly). Hence, it is conceivable that the spatial distribution of {delta}{sup 18}O in precipitation was controlled by a column total of water vapour flux in this area. (author)

Evaluation of IMERG and TRMM 3B43 Monthly Precipitation Products over Mainland China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fengrui Chen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available As the successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission significantly improves the spatial resolution of precipitation estimates from 0.25° to 0.1°. The present study analyzed the error structures of Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG monthly precipitation products over Mainland China from March 2014 to February 2015 using gauge measurements at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, IMERG products were also compared with TRMM 3B43 products. The results show that: (1 overall, IMERG can capture the spatial patterns of precipitation over China well. It performs a little better than TRMM 3B43 at seasonal and monthly scales; (2 the performance of IMERG varies greatly spatially and temporally. IMERG performs better at low latitudes than at middle latitudes, and shows worse performance in winter than at other times; (3 compared with TRMM 3B43, IMERG significantly improves the estimation accuracy of precipitation over the Xinjiang region and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, especially over the former where IMERG increases Pearson correlation coefficient by 0.18 and decreases root-mean-square error by 54.47 mm for annual precipitation estimates. However, most IMERG products over these areas are unreliable; and (4 IMERG shows poor performance in winter as TRMM 3B43 even if GPM improved its ability to sense frozen precipitation. Most of them over North China are unreliable during this period.

High resolution reconstruction of monthly autumn and winter precipitation of Iberian Peninsula for last 150 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortesi, N.; Trigo, R.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Ramos, A.

2012-04-01

Precipitation over Iberian Peninsula (IP) presents large values of interannual variability and large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions in the north and dry regions in the southern plains. Unlike other European regions, IP was poorly monitored for precipitation during 19th century. Here we present a new approach to fill this gap. A set of 26 atmospheric circulation weather types (Trigo R.M. and DaCamara C.C., 2000) derived from a recent SLP dataset, the EMULATE (European and North Atlantic daily to multidecadal climate variability) Project, was used to reconstruct Iberian monthly precipitation from October to March during 1851-1947. Principal Component Regression Analysis was chosen to develop monthly precipitation reconstruction back to 1851 and calibrated over 1948-2003 period for 3030 monthly precipitation series of high-density homogenized MOPREDAS (Monthly Precipitation Database for Spain and Portugal) database. Validation was conducted over 1920-1947 at 15 key site locations. Results show high model performance for selected months, with a mean coefficient of variation (CV) around 0.6 during validation period. Lower CV values were achieved in western area of IP. Trigo, R. M., and DaCamara, C.C., 2000: "Circulation weather types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal Dean

2016-01-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis is used to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75th and 95th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500-hectopascal heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10 percent of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cutoff low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the East Coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future precipitation trends based on downscaled cmip5 simulations data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mentgal, A.; Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M.A.

2017-01-01

This study investigates future changes in precipitation over the CRB (Columbia River Basin) in both wet (DJF) and dry (JJA) seasons under RCP85 GHG emission scenario. The simulations from four climate models which participated in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) were downscaled using the BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation) method. After downscaling, extreme value analysis and MME (Multi Model Ensemble) averaging is performed. This study focuses on computing 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return levels for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The maximum winter precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods have been estimated to be about 112, 127, 148 and 171 mm/day respectively whereas the maximum summer precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods are observed to be about 56, 81, 96 and 126 mm/day respectively. The MME average outperformed the individual models in simulating the historical precipitation in both seasons. The MME results showed a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in both future wet and dry seasons. Largest increase in precipitation occurs over the higher elevations of the Cascades Range, Coast Range and the Mountainous Range. (author)

Nuclear Winter: The implications for civil defense

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

1987-01-01

''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to hypothesized cooling in the northern hemisphere following a nuclear war due to injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the original paper in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. The widespread use of 3-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling; 15 to 25 0 C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought are likely to be direct threats to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures; The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and could present problems to third parties without food reserves; and Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor unexpected threat from nuclear war to the US and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the US due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year. 6 refs

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Summer Precipitation in Mexico under the Influence of the MJO, with Emphasis on the Bimodal Pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Perdigón, J.; Romero-Centeno, R.; Barrett, B.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.

2017-12-01

In many regions of Mexico, precipitation occurs in a very well defined annual cycle with peaks in May-June and September-October and a relative minimum in the middle of the rainy season known as the midsummer drought (MSD). The MJO is the most important mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, and, although some studies have shown its evident influence on summer precipitation in Mexico, its role in modulating the bimodal pattern of the summer precipitation cycle is still an open question. The spatio-temporal variability of summer precipitation in Mexico is analyzed through composite analysis according to the phases of the MJO, using the very high resolution CHIRPS precipitation data base and gridded data from the CFSR reanalysis to analyzing the MJO influence on the atmospheric circulation over Mexico and its adjacent basins. In general, during MJO phases 8-2 (4-6) rainfall is above-normal (below-normal), although, in some cases, the summer rainfall patterns during the same phase present considerable differences. The atmospheric circulation shows low (high) troposphere southwesterly (northeasterly) wind anomalies in southern Mexico under wetter conditions compared with climatological patterns, while the inverse pattern is observed under drier conditions. Composite anomalies of several variables also agreed well with those rainfall anomalies. Finally, a MJO complete cycle that reinforces (weakens) the bimodal pattern of summer rainfall in Mexico was found.

Downscaling atmospheric patterns to multi-site precipitation amounts in southern Scandinavia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gelati, Emiliano; Christensen, O.B.; Rasmussen, P.F.

2010-01-01

A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is applied for downscaling atmospheric synoptic patterns to winter multi-site daily precipitation amounts. The implemented NHMM assumes precipitation to be conditional on a hidden weather state that follows a Markov chain, whose transition probabilities...... depend on current atmospheric information. The gridded atmospheric fields are summarized through the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique. SVD is applied to geopotential height and relative humidity at several pressure levels, to identify their principal spatial patterns co...... products of bivariate distributions. Conditional on the weather state, precipitation amounts are modelled separately at each gauge as independent gamma-distributed random variables. This modelling approach is applied to 51 precipitation gauges in Denmark and southern Sweden for the period 1981...

Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community composition.

Science.gov (United States)

Monson, Russell K; Lipson, David L; Burns, Sean P; Turnipseed, Andrew A; Delany, Anthony C; Williams, Mark W; Schmidt, Steven K

2006-02-09

Most terrestrial carbon sequestration at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere occurs in seasonal, montane forest ecosystems. Winter respiratory carbon dioxide losses from these ecosystems are high, and over half of the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis in the summer can be lost the following winter. The amount of winter carbon dioxide loss is potentially susceptible to changes in the depth of the snowpack; a shallower snowpack has less insulation potential, causing colder soil temperatures and potentially lower soil respiration rates. Recent climate analyses have shown widespread declines in the winter snowpack of mountain ecosystems in the western USA and Europe that are coupled to positive temperature anomalies. Here we study the effect of changes in snow cover on soil carbon cycling within the context of natural climate variation. We use a six-year record of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in a subalpine forest to show that years with a reduced winter snowpack are accompanied by significantly lower rates of soil respiration. Furthermore, we show that the cause of the high sensitivity of soil respiration rate to changes in snow depth is a unique soil microbial community that exhibits exponential growth and high rates of substrate utilization at the cold temperatures that exist beneath the snow. Our observations suggest that a warmer climate may change soil carbon sequestration rates in forest ecosystems owing to changes in the depth of the insulating snow cover.

Measuring canopy loss and climatic thresholds from an extreme drought along a fivefold precipitation gradient across Texas.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwantes, Amanda M; Swenson, Jennifer J; González-Roglich, Mariano; Johnson, Daniel M; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Jackson, Robert B

2017-12-01

Globally, trees are increasingly dying from extreme drought, a trend that is expected to increase with climate change. Loss of trees has significant ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical consequences. In 2011, a record drought caused widespread tree mortality in Texas. Using remotely sensed imagery, we quantified canopy loss during and after the drought across the state at 30-m spatial resolution, from the eastern pine/hardwood forests to the western shrublands, a region that includes the boundaries of many species ranges. Canopy loss observations in ~200 multitemporal fine-scale orthophotos (1-m) were used to train coarser Landsat imagery (30-m) to create 30-m binary statewide canopy loss maps. We found that canopy loss occurred across all major ecoregions of Texas, with an average loss of 9.5%. The drought had the highest impact in post oak woodlands, pinyon-juniper shrublands and Ashe juniper woodlands. Focusing on a 100-km by ~1,000-km transect spanning the State's fivefold east-west precipitation gradient (~1,500 to ~300 mm), we compared spatially explicit 2011 climatic anomalies to our canopy loss maps. Much of the canopy loss occurred in areas that passed specific climatic thresholds: warm season anomalies in mean temperature (+1.6°C) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD, +0.66 kPa), annual percent deviation in precipitation (-38%), and 2011 difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (-1,206 mm). Although similarly low precipitation occurred during the landmark 1950s drought, the VPD and temperature anomalies observed in 2011 were even greater. Furthermore, future climate data under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 trajectory project that average values will surpass the 2011 VPD anomaly during the 2070-2099 period and the temperature anomaly during the 2040-2099 period. Identifying vulnerable ecological systems to drought stress and climate thresholds associated with canopy loss will aid in predicting how forests will

Severe dry winter affects plant phenology and carbon balance of a cork oak woodland understorey

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, A. C.; Costa-e-Silva, F.; Dubbert, M.; Piayda, A.; Pereira, J. S.

2016-10-01

Mediterranean climates are prone to a great variation in yearly precipitation. The effects on ecosystem will depend on the severity and timing of droughts. In this study we questioned how an extreme dry winter affects the carbon flux in the understorey of a cork oak woodland? What is the seasonal contribution of understorey vegetation to ecosystem productivity? We used closed-system portable chambers to measure CO2 exchange of the dominant shrub species (Cistus salviifolius, Cistus crispus and Ulex airensis), of the herbaceous layer and on bare soil in a cork oak woodland in central Portugal during the dry winter year of 2012. Shoot growth, leaf shedding, flower and fruit setting, above and belowground plant biomass were measured as well as seasonal leaf water potential. Eddy-covariance and micrometeorological data together with CO2 exchange measurements were used to access the understorey species contribution to ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). The herbaceous layer productivity was severely affected by the dry winter, with half of the yearly maximum aboveground biomass in comparison with the 6 years site average. The semi-deciduous and evergreen shrubs showed desynchronized phenophases and lagged carbon uptake maxima. Whereas shallow-root shrubs exhibited opportunistic characteristics in exploiting the understorey light and water resources, deep rooted shrubs showed better water status but considerably lower assimilation rates. The contribution of understorey vegetation to ecosystem GPP was lower during summer with 14% and maximum during late spring, concomitantly with the lowest tree productivity due to tree canopy renewal. The herbaceous vegetation contribution to ecosystem GPP never exceeded 6% during this dry year stressing its sensitivity to winter and spring precipitation. Although shrubs are more resilient to precipitation variability when compared with the herbaceous vegetation, the contribution of the understorey vegetation to ecosystem GPP can

Compound effects of temperature and precipitation in making droughts more frequent in Marathwada, India

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, A.; Zachariah, M.; Achutarao, K. M.; Otto, F. E. L.

2017-12-01

The Marathwada region in Maharashtra, India is known to suffer significantly from agrarian crisis including farmer suicides resulting from persistent droughts. Drought monitoring in India is commonly based on univariate indicators that consider the deficiency in precipitation alone. However, droughts may involve complex interplay of multiple physical variables, necessitating an integrated, multivariate approach to analyse their behaviour. In this study, we compare the behaviour of drought characteristics in Marathwada in the recent years as compared to the first half of the twentieth century, using a joint precipitation and temperature-based Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). Drought events in the recent times are found to exhibit exceptional simultaneous anomalies of high temperature and precipitation deficits in this region, though studies on precipitation alone show that these events are within the range of historically observed variability. Additionally, we also develop multivariate copula-based Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) relationships for droughts in this region and compare their natures pre- and post- 1950. Based on multivariate return periods considering both temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as the severity and duration of droughts, it is found that droughts have become more frequent in the post-1950 period. Based on precipitation alone, such an observation cannot be made. This emphasizes the sensitivity of droughts to temperature and underlines the importance of considering compound effects of temperature and precipitation in order to avoid an underestimation of drought risk. This observation-based analysis is the first step towards investigating the causal mechanisms of droughts, their evolutions and impacts in this region, particularly those influenced by anthropogenic climate change.

Attribution of UK Winter Floods to Anthropogenic Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Schaller, N.; Alison, K.; Sparrow, S. N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Massey, N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; van Haren, R.; Lamb, R.; Huntingford, C.; Crooks, S.; Legg, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Jones, R.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Many regions of southern UK experienced severe flooding during the 2013/2014 winter. Simultaneously, large areas in the USA and Canada were struck by prolonged cold weather. At the time, the media and public asked whether the general rainy conditions over northern Europe and the cold weather over North America were caused by climate change. Providing an answer to this question is not trivial, but recent studies show that probabilistic event attribution is feasible. Using the citizen science project weather@home, we ran over 40'000 perturbed initial condition simulations of the 2013/2014 winter. These simulations fall into two categories: one set aims at simulating the world with climate change using observed sea surface temperatures while the second set is run with sea surface temperatures corresponding to a world that might have been without climate change. The relevant modelled variables are then downscaled by a hydrological model to obtain river flows. First results show that anthropogenic climate change led to a small but significant increase in the fractional attributable risk for 30-days peak flows for the river Thames. A single number can summarize the final result from probabilistic attribution studies indicating, for example, an increase, decrease or no change to the risk of the event occurring. However, communicating this to the public, media and other scientists remains challenging. The assumptions made in the chain of models used need to be explained. In addition, extreme events, like the UK floods of the 2013/2014 winter, are usually caused by a range of factors. While heavy precipitation events can be caused by dynamic and/or thermodynamic processes, floods occur only partly as a response to heavy precipitation. Depending on the catchment, they can be largely due to soil properties and conditions of the previous months. Probabilistic attribution studies are multidisciplinary and therefore all aspects need to be communicated properly.

On the statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere in winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perlwitz, J.; Graf, H.F.

1994-01-01

The associated anomaly patterns of the stratospheric geopotential height field and the tropospheric geopotential and temperature height fields of the northern hemisphere are determined applying the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). With this linear multivariate technique the coupled modes of variability of time series of two fields are isolated in the EOF space. The one data set is the 50 hPa geopotential field, the other set consists of different height fields of the tropospheric pressure levels (200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa) and the temperature of the 850 hPa pressure level. For the winter months (December, January, February) two natural coupled modes, a barotropic and a baroclinic one, of linear relationship between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are found. The baroclinic mode describes a connection between the strength of the stratospheric cyclonic winter vortex and the tropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The corresponding temperature pattern for an anomalously strong stratospheric cyclonic vortex is characterized by positive temperature anomalies over higher latitudes of Eurasia. These 'Winter Warmings' are observed e.g. after violent volcanic eruptions. The barotropic mode is characterized by a zonal wave number one in the lower stratosphere and by a PNA-like pattern in the troposphere. It was shown by Labitzke and van Loon (1987) that this mode can be enhanced e.g. by El Ninos via the intensification of the Aleutian low. (orig.)

Multidecadal trends in the duration of wet spells and associated intensity of precipitation as revealed by a very dense observational German network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zolina, Olga

2014-01-01

Precipitation durations and intensities over the period 1950–2008 are analysed using daily rain gauge data from the Deutsche Wetterdienst raingauge network—one of the densest and most properly maintained precipitation observational networks in Europe. Truncated geometric distribution of the family of discrete distributions was applied for quantifying probability distribution of the durations of wet spells. Further intensities of wet spells of different durations were analysed along with wet spell lengths. During the cold season (October–March) wet periods over the whole of Germany demonstrate a robust pattern of lengthening by about 2–3% for the mean durations of wet spells and up to 6% for extremely long wet periods. This tendency is clearly associated with growing (up to 10% per decade in Eastern Germany) intensity of precipitation during long wet periods (more than 5 days) and the weakening of precipitation events associated with short and moderately long wet periods with both signals being statistically significant. Trends are superimposed with interdecadal variability, which is the strongest in Northern and Central Germany. In the warm season (April–September) there is no robust pan-German trend pattern in the wet spell durations and associated precipitation intensities. Strong structural changes in winter precipitation over Germany potentially imply growing rates of winter ground water recharge over Germany and increasing probability of winter flash and river flooding. (paper)

Investigating the relationship between Aerosol Optical Depth and Precipitation over Southeast Asia with Relative Humidity as an influencing factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Daniel Hui Loong; Li, Ruimin; Raghavan, Srivatsan V; Liong, Shie-Yui

2017-10-17

Atmospheric aerosols influence precipitation by changing the earth's energy budget and cloud properties. A number of studies have reported correlations between aerosol properties and precipitation data. Despite previous research, it is still hard to quantify the overall effects that aerosols have on precipitation as multiple influencing factors such as relative humidity (RH) can distort the observed relationship between aerosols and precipitation. Thus, in this study, both satellite-retrieved and reanalysis data were used to investigate the relationship between aerosols and precipitation in the Southeast Asia region from 2001 to 2015, with RH considered as a possible influencing factor. Different analyses in the study indicate that a positive correlation was present between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and precipitation over northern Southeast Asia region during the autumn and the winter seasons, while a negative correlation was identified over the Maritime Continent during the autumn season. Subsequently, a partial correlation analysis revealed that while RH influences the long-term negative correlations between AOD and precipitation, it did not significantly affect the positive correlations seen in the winter season. The result of this study provides additional evidence with respect to the critical role of RH as an influencing factor in AOD-precipitation relationship over Southeast Asia.

Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu

2009-01-01

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong

2017-10-01

This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

KAUST Repository

Chevuturi, A.

2014-12-19

This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-10-15

This study considers the large uncertainty in projected changes in local precipitation. It aims to map, and begin to understand, the relative roles of uncertain modelling and natural variability, using 20-year mean data from four perturbed physics or multi-model ensembles. The largest - 280-member - ensemble illustrates a rich pattern in the varying contribution of modelling uncertainty, with similar features found using a CMIP3 ensemble (despite its limited sample size, which restricts it value in this context). The contribution of modelling uncertainty to the total uncertainty in local precipitation change is found to be highest in the deep tropics, particularly over South America, Africa, the east and central Pacific, and the Atlantic. In the moist maritime tropics, the highly uncertain modelling of sea-surface temperature changes is transmitted to a large uncertain modelling of local rainfall changes. Over tropical land and summer mid-latitude continents (and to a lesser extent, the tropical oceans), uncertain modelling of atmospheric processes, land surface processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle all appear to play an additional substantial role in driving the uncertainty of local rainfall changes. In polar regions, inter-model variability of anomalous sea ice drives an uncertain precipitation response, particularly in winter. In all these regions, there is therefore the potential to reduce the uncertainty of local precipitation changes through targeted model improvements and observational constraints. In contrast, over much of the arid subtropical and mid-latitude oceans, over Australia, and over the Sahara in winter, internal atmospheric variability dominates the uncertainty in projected precipitation changes. Here, model improvements and observational constraints will have little impact on the uncertainty of time means shorter than at least 20 years. Last, a supplementary application of the metric developed here is that it can be interpreted as a measure

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-06-01

Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20th century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21st century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21st century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

Summertime Minimum Streamflow Elasticity to Antecendent Winter Precipitation, Peak Snow Water Equivalent and Summertime Evaporative Demand in the Western US Maritime Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Schaperow, J.; Cooper, M. G.; Cooley, S. W.; Alam, S.; Smith, L. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

As climate regimes shift, streamflows and our ability to predict them will change, as well. Elasticity of summer minimum streamflow is estimated for 138 unimpaired headwater river basins across the maritime western US mountains to better understand how climatologic variables and geologic characteristics interact to determine the response of summer low flows to winter precipitation (PPT), spring snow water equivalent (SWE), and summertime potential evapotranspiration (PET). Elasticities are calculated using log log linear regression, and linear reservoir storage coefficients are used to represent basin geology. Storage coefficients are estimated using baseflow recession analysis. On average, SWE, PET, and PPT explain about 1/3 of the summertime low flow variance. Snow-dominated basins with long timescales of baseflow recession are least sensitive to changes in SWE, PPT, and PET, while rainfall-dominated, faster draining basins are most sensitive. There are also implications for the predictability of summer low flows. The R2 between streamflow and SWE drops from 0.62 to 0.47 from snow-dominated to rain-dominated basins, while there is no corresponding increase in R2 between streamflow and PPT.

Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins

Science.gov (United States)

Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.

Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

2018-02-01

Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

Hydrological Utility and Uncertainty of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products in the Mountainous Region of South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong Pil Kim

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Satellite-derived precipitation can be a potential source of forcing data for assessing water availability and managing water supply in mountainous regions of East Asia. This study investigates the hydrological utility of satellite-derived precipitation and uncertainties attributed to error propagation of satellite products in hydrological modeling. To this end, four satellite precipitation products (tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA version 6 (TMPAv6 and version 7 (TMPAv7, the global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP, and the climate prediction center (CPC morphing technique (CMORPH were integrated into a physically-based hydrologic model for the mountainous region of South Korea. The satellite precipitation products displayed different levels of accuracy when compared to the intra- and inter-annual variations of ground-gauged precipitation. As compared to the GSMaP and CMORPH products, superior performances were seen when the TMPA products were used within streamflow simulations. Significant dry (negative biases in the GSMaP and CMORPH products led to large underestimates of streamflow during wet-summer seasons. Although the TMPA products displayed a good level of performance for hydrologic modeling, there were some over/underestimates of precipitation by satellites during the winter season that were induced by snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. These differences resulted in streamflow simulation uncertainties during the winter and spring seasons. This study highlights the crucial need to understand hydrological uncertainties from satellite-derived precipitation for improved water resource management and planning in mountainous basins. Furthermore, it is suggested that a reliable snowfall detection algorithm is necessary for the new global precipitation measurement (GPM mission.

A study on the intra-annual variation and the spatial distribution of precipitation amount and duration over Greece on a 10 day basis

Science.gov (United States)

Bartzokas, A.; Lolis, C. J.; Metaxas, D. A.

2003-02-01

The intra-annual variation of precipitation amount and duration and their spatial distribution during the year are studied on a 10 day basis for the Greek region, using S-mode and T-mode factor analysis. (i) For the intra-annual variation of precipitation amount, two modes were revealed: the first shows one broad maximum during the conventional winter in stations affected by the sea; the second presents two maxima, the first during late autumn-early winter and the second during late spring, corresponding to the northern mainland stations. (ii) For the spatial distribution of precipitation, three main patterns were revealed: the first one is the winter pattern, with the maximum over the west windward area; the second is the summer pattern, with a maximum over the north inland region; and the third is the autumn pattern, with the maximum over northwestern Greece. (iii) For precipitation duration, two types of intra-annual variation were revealed. The first one is similar to the first of the analysis for precipitation amount; the second presents two maxima, the first during the beginning of December and the second during the middle of February, corresponding to the areas of northwestern and northeastern Greece. (iv) For the spatial distribution of precipitation duration, three main patterns were revealed: the first is the summer pattern, which is similar to the second of the analysis for precipitation amount; the second is the winter pattern, with the spatial maximum located over the eastern mainland and western Crete; finally, the third one is the autumn pattern, with the maximum in northwestern Greece. During the third 10 day period of October and the second 10 day period of February, precipitation seems to present singularities, possibly due to fluctuations in atmospheric circulation. The above intra-annual variations and spatial distribution patterns are connected to the seasonal variations of the depression trajectories, the atmospheric instability, the influence

Fertilizers nitrogen balance under maizl and winter rye in lysimentric experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionova, O.N.

1979-01-01

The balance of the labelled 15 N nitrogen fertilizers in lysimentric experiment carried oUt in the turf-podsolic medium loamy soil has been studied. The results of two year experiment (1976-1977) have shown that depending on the doses and time of introduction the use of fertilizer nitrogen by maize varied from 51 to 58 % and by winter rye from 52 to 59 %. Consolidation in the organic substance of soil constituted 18-26 and 17-33 %, respectively. The losses of fertilizer nitrogen varied (14-29 % under maize and 9-23 % under winter rye). Nitrogen losses as a result of atmospheric precipitation infiltration both under maize and winter rye occured mainly at the expense of nitrogen of soil and reached considerable dimensions (31 kg) only under conditions of exceeding moistening of 1976. The losses of fertilizer nitrogen caused by washing out do not exceed 1 % for two years. The main losses of fertilizer nitrogen occurred in the form of gaseous nitrogen compounds

Seasonal effects in the ionosphere-thermosphere response to the precipitation and field-aligned current variations in the cusp region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Namgaladze

Full Text Available The seasonal effects in the thermosphere and ionosphere responses to the precipitating electron flux and field-aligned current variations, of the order of an hour in duration, in the summer and winter cusp regions have been investigated using the global numerical model of the Earth's upper atmosphere. Two variants of the calculations have been performed both for the IMF B_y < 0. In the first variant, the model input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken as geomagnetically symmetric and equal to those used earlier in the calculations for the equinoctial conditions. It has been found that both ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances are more intensive in the winter cusp region due to the lower conductivity of the winter polar cap ionosphere and correspondingly larger electric field variations leading to the larger Joule heating effects in the ion and neutral gas temperature, ion drag effects in the thermospheric winds and ion drift effects in the F2-region electron concentration. In the second variant, the calculations have been performed for the events of 28–29 January, 1992 when precipitations were weaker but the magnetospheric convection was stronger than in the first variant. Geomagnetically asymmetric input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken from the patterns derived by combining data obtained from the satellite, radar and ground magnetometer observations for these events. Calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection and thermospheric circulation have been compared with observations and it has been established that calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection for both winter and summer hemispheres are in a good agreement with the observations. Calculated patterns of the thermospheric circulation are in a good agreement with the average circulation for the Southern (summer Hemisphere obtained

Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to a monsoon-affected eutrophic embayment: Fluxes, sources, and processes

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yunchao; Zhang, Jingping; Liu, Songlin; Jiang, Zhijian; Arbi, Iman; Huang, Xiaoping; Macreadie, Peter Ian

2018-06-01

Daya Bay in the South China Sea (SCS) has experienced rapid nitrogen pollution and intensified eutrophication in the past decade due to economic development. Here, we estimated the deposition fluxes of nitrogenous species, clarified the contribution of nitrogen from precipitation and measured ions and isotopic composition (δ15N and δ18O) of nitrate in precipitation in one year period to trace its sources and formation processes among different seasons. We found that the deposition fluxes of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), NO3-, NH4+, NO2-, and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to Daya Bay were 132.5, 64.4 17.5, 1.0, 49.6 mmol m-2•yr-1, respectively. DON was a significant contributor to nitrogen deposition (37% of TDN), and NO3- accounted for 78% of the DIN in precipitation. The nitrogen deposition fluxes were higher in spring and summer, and lower in winter. Nitrogen from precipitation contributed nearly 38% of the total input of nitrogen (point sources input and dry and wet deposition) in Daya Bay. The δ15N-NO3- abundance, ion compositions, and air mass backward trajectories implicated that coal combustion, vehicle exhausts, and dust from mainland China delivered by northeast monsoon were the main sources in winter, while fossil fuel combustion (coal combustion and vehicle exhausts) and dust from PRD and southeast Asia transported by southwest monsoon were the main sources in spring; marine sources, vehicle exhausts and lightning could be the potential sources in summer. δ18O results showed that OH pathway was dominant in the chemical formation process of nitrate in summer, while N2O5+ DMS/HC pathways in winter and spring.

Constraining precipitation amount and distribution over cold regions using GRACE

Science.gov (United States)

Behrangi, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Gardner, A. S.; Fisher, J.

2017-12-01

Current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in high-elevation and high latitude regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here we demonstrate how that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger error. We also observed that as near surface temperature decreases products tend to underestimate accumulated precipitation retrieved from GRACE. The analysis performed using various products such as GPCP, GPCC, TRMM, and gridded station data over vast regions in high latitudes and two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia. Based on the analysis over High Mountain Asia it was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, GPCP showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basin.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

Crop yield monitoring in the Sahel using root zone soil moisture anomalies derived from SMOS soil moisture data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Gibon, François; Pellarin, Thierry; Alhassane, Agali; Traoré, Seydou; Baron, Christian

2017-04-01

West Africa is greatly vulnerable, especially in terms of food sustainability. Mainly based on rainfed agriculture, the high variability of the rainy season strongly impacts the crop production driven by the soil water availability in the soil. To monitor this water availability, classical methods are based on daily precipitation measurements. However, the raingauge network suffers from the poor network density in Africa (1/10000km2). Alternatively, real-time satellite-derived precipitations can be used, but they are known to suffer from large uncertainties which produce significant error on crop yield estimations. The present study proposes to use root soil moisture rather than precipitation to evaluate crop yield variations. First, a local analysis of the spatiotemporal impact of water deficit on millet crop production in Niger was done, from in-situ soil moisture measurements (AMMA-CATCH/OZCAR (French Critical Zone exploration network)) and in-situ millet yield survey. Crop yield measurements were obtained for 10 villages located in the Niamey region from 2005 to 2012. The mean production (over 8 years) is 690 kg/ha, and ranges from 381 to 872 kg/ha during this period. Various statistical relationships based on soil moisture estimates were tested, and the most promising one (R>0.9) linked the 30-cm soil moisture anomalies from mid-August to mid-September (grain filling period) to the crop yield anomalies. Based on this local study, it was proposed to derive regional statistical relationships using 30-cm soil moisture maps over West Africa. The selected approach was to use a simple hydrological model, the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), forced by real-time satellite-based precipitation (CMORPH, PERSIANN, TRMM3B42). To reduce uncertainties related to the quality of real-time rainfall satellite products, SMOS soil moisture measurements were assimilated into the API model through a Particular Filter algorithm. Then, obtained soil moisture anomalies were

[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan

2018-01-01

Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.

Daily δ18O and δD of precipitations from 2007 to 2009 in Guangzhou, South China: Implications for changes of moisture sources

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Luhua; Wei, Gangjian; Deng, Wenfeng; Zhao, Xiaoli

2011-04-01

SummaryOxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes ( δ18O and δD) in precipitation collected in every event from 2007 to 2009 in Guangzhou, South China, are presented in this paper. The total correlation between δ18O and δD is obtained as δD = (8.46 ± 0.13) δ18O + (15.0 ± 0.9). More negative δ18O and δD generally occur during summer and autumn, while less negative or even positive δ18O and δD occur during winter and spring. Significant negative correlations between precipitation δ18O and temperature, and between precipitation δ18O and precipitation amount are observed. Regression line changes from year to year are likely due to changes in moisture sources for the precipitation. The moisture contributed by adjacent seas or local evaporation account for the main precipitation during winter and early spring, while summer monsoon brings huge amounts of moisture from remote seas associated with higher temperature and larger precipitation amounts. Seasonal variations of the precipitation D-excess provide more details for changes in moisture sources. Higher D-excess values during winter and early spring are estimated to correspond to a lesser proportion of remote moisture, while lower D-excess values during summer and autumn correspond to larger remote moisture transported by summer monsoons. This generally agrees with the results of model analysis on single isobaric backward trajectories for air parcels during specific time periods. Results of this study imply that precipitation δ18O and δD, as well as some related paleoclimate proxies such as δ18O in speleothem and tree ring, and δD in plant-derived organic compounds and tree ring, currently cannot indicate changes in temperature or precipitation amount separately, but should be comprehensive proxies for monsoon climate.

Evapotranspiration in winter wheat under different grazing and tillage practices in the southern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) is highly variable both spatially and temporally with recurring periods of severe drought. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – summer fallow system with conventional tillage is the principal dryland cropping system in this region for both grazing an...

A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

Science.gov (United States)

McFarland, Kent P.; Rimmer, Christopher C.; Goetz, James E.; Aubry, Yves; Wunderle, Joseph M.; Sutton, Anne; Townsend, Jason M.; Sosa, Alejandro Llanes; Kirkconnell, Arturo

2013-01-01

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km2, nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and

How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO?

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-02-01

During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

CCN and IN Effects on Cloud Properties and Precipitation - Case Studies from CalWater 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, J.; Leung, L.; Comstock, J. M.; Tomlinson, J. M.

2011-12-01

Aerosols in the atmosphere can serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) to modify cloud microphysical processes, which could potentially change the location, intensity, and type of precipitation. Dust aerosols are often observed over California in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia. Although anthropogenic pollution has been postulated to contribute to reduction of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the effects of dust aerosols on the winter clouds and precipitation has not been examined in detail particularly with model simulations. We incorporate recent progress in ice nucleation parameterizations to link dust with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with WRF, to exclusively look into how dust can possibly affect cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cases under different environmental conditions with atmospheric river (AR) and Sierra barrier jet (SBJ) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. It is shown that increasing IN concentrations or adding a dust layer at 4-6 km as IN enhances surface rain and snow due to enhanced production of ice and snow in clouds. However, increasing CCN suppresses surface rain and snow, and significantly redistributes surface precipitation upwind and downwind of the mountains, with important implication to improving our understanding of the impacts of aerosols on orographic precipitation and water supply in the region.

Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Mangen; Chen, Xing; Cheng, Chad Shouquan

2016-01-01

Precipitation extremes play a key role in flooding risks over the Huaihe River Basin, which is important to understand their hydrological impacts. Based on observed daily precipitation and streamflow data from 1958 to 2009, eight precipitation indices and three streamflow indices were calculated for the study of hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the wet condition intensified in the summer wet season and the drought condition was getting worse in the autumn dry season in the later years of the past 50 years. The river basin had experienced higher heavy rainfall-related flooding risks in summer and more severe drought in autumn in the later of the period. The extreme precipitation events or consecutive heavy rain day events led to the substantial increases in streamflow extremes, which are the main causes of frequent floods in the Huaihe River Basin. The large inter-annual variation of precipitation anomalies in the upper and central Huaihe River Basin are the major contributor for the regional frequent floods and droughts.

El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R.

2017-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

A precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility model for natural gas transmission pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Finley, Jason P. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Valencia, California (United States); Slayter, David L.; Hitchcock, Chris S. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Walnut Creek, California (United States); Lee, Chih-Hung [Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Gas Systems Integrity Management, Walnut Creek, California (United States)

2010-07-01

Landslides related to heavy rainfall can cause extensive damage to natural gas transmission pipelines. Fugro William Lettis and Associates Inc. have developed and implemented a geographic information system (GIS) model that evaluates near real-time precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility. The model incorporates state-wide precipitation data and geologically-based landslide classifications to produce rapid landslide risk evaluation for Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PGandE) gas transmission system during winter rain storms in California. The precipitation data include pre-storm event quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and post-storm event quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The geologic classifications are based on slope, susceptible geologic formations, and the locations of historic or known landslide occurrences. Currently the model is calibrated using qualitative measures. This paper describes the development of the model algorithm and input data, model results, calibration efforts, and the on-going research and landslide collection warranted for continued refinement of the model.

Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi

2018-04-01

Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.

Quantitative measurement of precipitation using radar in comparison with ground-level measurements, taking orographic influences into account; Quantitative Niederschlagsmessung mit Radar im Vergleich mit Bodenmessungen in orographisch gegliedertem Gelaende

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gysi, H. [Radar-Info, Karlsruhe (Germany)

1998-01-01

The methods of correction applied to the determination of the spatial distribution of precipitation on the basis of the volumes established by the Karlsruhe C-band precipitation radar distinctly enhance the quality of statements regarding precipitation intensities and their time integration both in summer and winter. (orig./KW) [Deutsch] Die fuer die Bestimmung der raeumlichen Niederschlagsverteilung aus Volumendaten des Karlsruher C-Band Niederschlagradars angewandten Korrekturverfahren verbessern sowohl im Sommer als auch im Winter deutlich die Qualitaet und quantitative Aussagekraft der dargestellten Niederschlagsintensitaeten und deren zeitlichen Integrationen. (orig./KW)

Gravitational anomalies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leutwyler, H; Mallik, S

1986-12-01

The effective action for fermions moving in external gravitational and gauge fields is analyzed in terms of the corresponding external field propagator. The central object in our approach is the covariant energy-momentum tensor which is extracted from the regular part of the propagator at short distances. It is shown that the Lorentz anomaly, the conformal anomaly and the gauge anomaly can be expressed in terms of the local polynomials which determine the singular part of the propagator. (There are no coordinate anomalies). Except for the conformal anomaly, for which we give explicit representations only in dless than or equal to4, we consider an arbitrary number of dimensions.

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E

2016-01-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979–2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons. (letter)

How Winter Time Atmospheric Stability Influences PM2.5 Concentration in Different Complex Terrains; Beijing in China vs Fairbanks in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Karandana Gamalathge, T. D.; Green, M.

2017-12-01

Consequences of air pollution is known to majority of the global population. Small particles or aerosols play a significant role in global climate change, and increasing the number of people suffer from poor health. Specially during winter seasons, people live in valleys or close to mountains experience hazy conditions and severe health problems. As a result, aerosol related research works have gained more attention over the last couple of decades. We considered PM2.5-particulate matter less than 2.5 µm of aerodynamic diameter, to see how PM2.5 varies with different atmospheric conditions during winter seasons over two different regions of the world. We selected five winter seasons from November to February from 2011 to 2015 both in Beijing and in Fairbanks. Both locations can be considered as complex terrains, as those regions are surrounded by or close to mountains. Using University of Wyoming's sounding data, we calculated a parameter called Heat Deficit (HD). Higher HD is associated with less turbulence, thus high PM2.5 concentration. On the other hand, low HD is associated with high turbulence, thus low PM2.5 concentration. So, we considered HD as a measure of stability in the region of interest. Despite geographical differences, Fairbanks was covered by snow every day over the study period while Beijing had almost no snow cover. Analysis was done in two ways, with and without paying attention to precipitation. HD was also evaluated with different levels of PM2.5, set up to multiples of average PM2.5 concentration. This was done to check whether HD correlates well with a particular range of PM2.5. A day of precipitation for Fairbanks was considered to be when the daily snowfall >1 inch, while for Beijing when any type of daily precipitation >0.1 inch. Precipitation for Beijing was rare and only 9 days were met even with the 0.1 inch criteria while Fairbanks had 61 days of exceeding the 1 inch criteria. Results revealed that precipitation doesn't impact the

Preliminary Studies on Summer Precipitation Patterns in China%我国夏季降水类型初探

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

李鸾

2008-01-01

[Objective]Study on the spatial distribution of summer precipitation patterns and interannnal and interdacadal variability.[Method]The summer precipitation patterns were obtained from standard field of summer precipitation data for 160 observation stations in China during 1951-2000 by the utilization of empirical orthogonal function(EOF),and characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variability were analyzed.[Result]The summer precipitation mainly distributes in eastern part of China;The Ist,2nd and 3rd EOF modes of spatial distribution are especially remarkable as well consistent with the results of previous reports about three rainfall patterns from analysis on the percentages of precipitation anomaly of summer.[Conclusion]There exists interannnal and interdecadal variability for summer precipitation in China.

Regional climate change: Precipitation variability in mountainous part of Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolova Nina

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of paper is to analyze temporal and spatial changes in monthly precipitation as well as extremely dry and wet months in mountainous part of Bulgaria. Study precipitation variability in mountainous part is very important because this part is the region where the rivers take its source from. Extreme values of monthly precipitation are important information for better understanding of the whole variability and trends in precipitation time series. The mean investigated period is 1951-2005 and the reference period is so called temporary climate - 1961- 1990. Extreme dry precipitation months are defined as a month whose monthly precipitation is lower than 10% of gamma distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. Extreme wet months are determined with respect to 90% percentiles of gamma distribution (monthly precipitation is higher than 90%. The result of the research show that in mountainous part of Bulgaria during 1950s and 1960s number of extremely wet months is higher than number of dry months. Decreasing of monthly precipitation is a feature for 1980s. This dry period continues till 2004. The years 2000 makes impression as driest year in high mountains with about 7 extremely dry months. The second dry year is 1993. The negative precipitation anomaly is most clearly determined during last decade at study area. The present research points out that fluctuation of precipitation in mountainous part of Bulgaria are coinciding with regional and global climate trends.

Winter fuels report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1995-01-13

The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

Winter fuels report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

Unstable relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian jet stream in winter and possible mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun; Zhu, Yali

2017-12-01

Based on long-term reanalysis datasets, this study revealed that the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significant negative during 1925-1945 and 1985-2005 (significant periods; hereafter SPs) whereas insignificant during 1900-1920 and 1955-1975 (insignificant periods; ISPs). The unstable AO-EAJS relationship might be related to the interdecadal change of AO's spatial structure. During SPs winters, anomalous positive AO events are characterized by atmospheric negative anomalies in the Arctic with two anomalous positive centers located in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific, exhibiting a quasi-barotropic structure. By contrast, the anomalous center in the North Pacific is barely observed during ISPs winters. Further analysis indicated that such interdecadal change might be attributed to change of troposphere-stratosphere coupling and the North Pacific air-sea interaction. On the one hand, anomalous AO at surface is closely related to obvious planetary waves downward from the stratosphere during SPs, which favors the subtropics-Arctic teleconnection. On the other hand, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shows warm phase during SPs, which induces larger variance of the Aleutian Low and more intensive divergence anomalies at upper level troposphere. Due to the advection of vorticity induced by stronger divergence is favorable for stronger Rossby wave source, the Rossby wave activity is much stronger and could further propagate eastward to the North Atlantic during SPs, resulting in the Pacific-Atlantic teleconnection. Such a mechanism is supported by the numerical simulations from two individual models that are perturbed by warm/cold IPO sea surface temperature anomalies.

The Use of Convolutional Neural Network in Relating Precipitation to Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, B.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation prediction in dynamical weather and climate models depends on 1) the predictability of pressure or geopotential height for the forecasting period and 2) the successive work of interpreting the pressure field in terms of precipitation events. The later task is represented as parameterization schemes in numerical models, where detailed computing inevitably blurs the hidden cause-and-effect relationship in precipitation generation. The "big data" provided by numerical simulation, reanalysis and observation networks requires better causation analysis for people to digest and realize their use. While classic synoptical analysis methods are very-often insufficient for spatially distributed high dimensional data, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is developed here to directly relate precipitation with circulation. Case study carried over west coast United States during boreal winter showed that CNN can locate and capture key pressure zones of different structures to project precipitation spatial distribution with high accuracy across hourly to monthly scales. This direct connection between atmospheric circulation and precipitation offers a probe for attributing precipitation to the coverage, location, intensity and spatial structure of characteristic pressure zones, which can be used for model diagnosis and improvement.

Summer fallow soil management - impact on rainfed winter wheat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Fucui; Wang, Zhaohui; Dai, Jian

2014-01-01

Summer fallow soil management is an important approach to improve soil and crop management in dryland areas. In the Loess Plateau regions, the annual precipitation is low and varies annually and seasonally, with more than 60% concentrated in the summer months from July to September, which...... is the summer fallow period in the winter wheat-summer fallow cropping system. With bare fallow in summer as a control, a 3-year location-fixed field experiment was conducted in the Loess Plateau to investigate the effects of wheat straw retention (SR), green manure (GM) planting, and their combination on soil...... water retention (WR) during summer fallow, winter wheat yield, and crop water use and nitrogen (N) uptake. The results showed that SR increased soil WR during summer fallow by 20 mm on average compared with the control over 3 experimental years but reduced the grain yield by 8% in the third year...

Holonomy anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bagger, J.; Nemeschansky, D.; Yankielowicz, S.

1985-05-01

A new type of anomaly is discussed that afflicts certain non-linear sigma models with fermions. This anomaly is similar to the ordinary gauge and gravitational anomalies since it reflects a topological obstruction to the reparametrization invariance of the quantum effective action. Nonlinear sigma models are constructed based on homogeneous spaces G/H. Anomalies arising when the fermions are chiral are shown to be cancelled sometimes by Chern-Simons terms. Nonlinear sigma models are considered based on general Riemannian manifolds. 9 refs

Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models

Science.gov (United States)

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals...

Anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bardeen, W.A.

1985-08-01

Anomalies have a diverse impact on many aspects of physical phenomena. The role of anomalies in determining physical structure from the amplitude for π 0 decay to the foundations of superstring theory will be reviewed. 36 refs

Climate variability from isotope records in precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grassl, H.; Latif, M.; Schotterer, U.; Gourcy, L.

2002-01-01

Selected time series from the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) revealed a close relationship to climate variability phenomena like El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) although the precipitation anomaly in the case studies of Manaus (Brazil) and Groningen (The Netherlands) is rather weak. For a sound understanding of this relationship especially in the case of Manaus, the data should include major events like the 1997/98 El Nino, however, the time series are interrupted frequently or important stations are even closed. Improvements are only possible if existing key stations and new ones (placed at 'hot spots' derived from model experiments) are supported continuously. A close link of GNIP to important scientific programmes like CLIVAR, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme seems to be indispensable for a successful continuation. (author)

Evaluation of modeled changes in extreme precipitation in Europe and the Rhine basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Hazeleger, W.

2013-01-01

In this study, we investigate the change in multi-day precipitation extremes in late winter in Europe using observations and climate models. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models can accurately reproduce observed trends and, if not, to find the causes of the

Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Anomaly-free models for flavour anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, John; Fairbairn, Malcolm; Tunney, Patrick

2018-03-01

We explore the constraints imposed by the cancellation of triangle anomalies on models in which the flavour anomalies reported by LHCb and other experiments are due to an extra U(1)^' gauge boson Z^' . We assume universal and rational U(1)^' charges for the first two generations of left-handed quarks and of right-handed up-type quarks but allow different charges for their third-generation counterparts. If the right-handed charges vanish, cancellation of the triangle anomalies requires all the quark U(1)^' charges to vanish, if there are either no exotic fermions or there is only one Standard Model singlet dark matter (DM) fermion. There are non-trivial anomaly-free models with more than one such `dark' fermion, or with a single DM fermion if right-handed up-type quarks have non-zero U(1)^' charges. In some of the latter models the U(1)^' couplings of the first- and second-generation quarks all vanish, weakening the LHC Z^' constraint, and in some other models the DM particle has purely axial couplings, weakening the direct DM scattering constraint. We also consider models in which anomalies are cancelled via extra vector-like leptons, showing how the prospective LHC Z^' constraint may be weakened because the Z^' → μ ^+ μ ^- branching ratio is suppressed relative to other decay modes.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Lisi Pei; Xindi (Randy) Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2016-01-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for...

Holocene record of precipitation seasonality from lake calcite δ18O in the central Rocky Mountains, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Lesleigh

2011-01-01

A context for recent hydroclimatic extremes and variability is provided by a ~10 k.y. sediment carbonate oxygen isotope (??18O) record at 5-100 yr resolution from Bison Lake, 3255 m above sea level, in northwestern Colorado (United States). Winter precipitation is the primary water source for the alpine headwater lake in the Upper Colorado River Basin and lake water ??18O measurements reflect seasonal variations in precipitation ??18O. Holocene lake water ??18O variations are inferred from endogenic sedimentary calcite ??18O based on comparisons with historic watershed discharge records and tree-ring reconstructions. Drought periods (i.e., drier winters and/or a more rain-dominated seasonal precipitation balance) generally correspond with higher calcite ??18O values, and vice-versa. Early to middle Holocene ??18O values are higher, implying a rain-dominated seasonal precipitation balance. Lower, more variable ??18O values after ca. 3500 yr ago indicate a snow-dominated but more seasonally variable precipitation balance. The middle to late Holocene ??18O record corresponds with records of El Ni??o Southern Oscillation intensification that supports a teleconnection between Rocky Mountain climate and North Pacific sea-surface temperatures at decade to century time scales. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

Influence of Western Tibetan Plateau Summer Snow Cover on East Asian Summer Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhibiao; Wu, Renguang; Chen, Shangfeng; Huang, Gang; Liu, Ge; Zhu, Lihua

2018-03-01

The influence of boreal winter-spring eastern Tibetan Plateau snow anomalies on the East Asian summer rainfall variability has been the focus of previous studies. The present study documents the impacts of boreal summer western and southern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies on summer rainfall over East Asia. Analysis shows that more snow cover in the western and southern Tibetan Plateau induces anomalous cooling in the overlying atmospheric column. The induced atmospheric circulation changes are different corresponding to more snow cover in the western and southern Tibetan Plateau. The atmospheric circulation changes accompanying the western Plateau snow cover anomalies are more obvious over the midlatitude Asia, whereas those corresponding to the southern Plateau snow cover anomalies are more prominent over the tropics. As such, the western and southern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies influence the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation through different pathways. Nevertheless, the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation anomalies induced by the western and southern Plateau snow cover anomalies tend to display similar distribution so that they are more pronounced when the western and southern Plateau snow cover anomalies work in coherence. Analysis indicates that the summer snow cover anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau may be related to late spring snow anomalies due to the persistence. The late spring snow anomalies are related to an obvious wave train originating from the western North Atlantic that may be partly associated with sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Trends of two decadal precipitation chemistry in a subtropical rainforest in East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Chung-Te; Wang, Chiao-Ping; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Wang, Lih-Jih; Liu, Chiung-Pin; Lin, Teng-Chiu

2017-12-15

Long-term monitoring of precipitation chemistry provides a great opportunity to examine the evolution of air pollutant emissions and effectiveness of air pollution control measures. We evaluated the characteristics and trends of precipitation chemistry at both annual and seasonal scales based on the records of 1994-2013 at Fushan Experimental Forest (FEF) of northeastern Taiwan. The results showed that 77% of the weekly precipitation had pHprecipitation pH and the difference between [SO 4 2 - +NO 3 - ] and [Ca 2+ +NH 4 + ], not just [SO 4 2 - +NO 3 - ], suggesting that precipitation acidity was not solely determined by acidic pollutants but by the balance between acidic pollutants and base cations. We also found temporal decreases of Ca 2+ and NH 4 + concentrations in precipitation which contributed to the low acid neutralization capacity of precipitation. Annual deposition of NO 3 - and SO 4 2- was 23 and 55kgha -1 yr -1 , which is much higher than most forest sites in the industrialized countries suggesting that acid deposition is still a major environmental issue in Taiwan. Annual deposition of NH 4 + , Ca 2+ and NO 3 - showed significant decreasing trends during the 20-year period, which was mostly due to the decreases in the summer deposition associated with air pollution mitigation strategies. Winter deposition showed no decreasing patterns for the same period. The high contribution to annual acid deposition from autumn-winter and spring rains (50%) associated with northeast monsoon implies that long-range transport of anthropogenic emissions from East Asia played a key role on acid depositions at FEF and possibly many areas in the region. Therefore, intergovernmental cooperation is urgently needed to effectively mitigate the threat of acid deposition in East Asia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Saptial and Temporal in Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Juvenile Winter Flounder Otoliths From Selected Nursery Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations have supported large commercial and recreational fisheries along the coast of New England. In recent years, however, the population of this important species has declined precipitously in some areas, especially Narragan...

Changing characteristics and spatial differentiation of spring precipitation in Southwest China during 1961-2012

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘洪兰; 张强; 张俊国; 胡文超; 郭俊琴; 王胜

2015-01-01

In this study, we analyze spring precipitation from 92 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 to understand temporal–spatial variability and change of spring precipitation over Southwest China. Various analysis meth-ods are used for different purposes, including empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and rotated EOF (REOF) for analyzing spatial structure change of precipitation anomaly, and Mann–Kendall testing method to determine whether there were abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the precipitation has a domain uniform structure;the second is dominated by a spatial dipole;and the third contains five variability centers. 2000s is the decade of largest amount of precipitation while 1990s the decade of smallest amount of precipitation. Year-to-year differ-ence of that region is large:the amount of the largest precipitation year doubles that of the smallest precipitation year. We also find that spring precipitation in Southwest China experienced a few abrupt changes: sudden increase at 1966, sudden decrease at 1979, and sudden increase at 1995. We speculate that the spring precipitation will increase gradually in the next two decades.

The Centennial Trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Chris; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Landsfeld, Martin F.; Klotter, Douglas; Peterson, Pete J.; Harrison, Laura

2015-01-01

East Africa is a drought prone, food and water insecure region with a highly variable climate. This complexity makes rainfall estimation challenging, and this challenge is compounded by low rain gauge densities and inhomogeneous monitoring networks. The dearth of observations is particularly problematic over the past decade, since the number of records in globally accessible archives has fallen precipitously. This lack of data coincides with an increasing scientific and humanitarian need to place recent seasonal and multi-annual East African precipitation extremes in a deep historic context. To serve this need, scientists from the UC Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group and Florida State University have pooled their station archives and expertise to produce a high quality gridded ‘Centennial Trends’ precipitation dataset. Additional observations have been acquired from the national meteorological agencies and augmented with data provided by other universities. Extensive quality control of the data was carried out and seasonal anomalies interpolated using kriging. This paper documents the CenTrends methodology and data.

Comparison between weather station data in south-eastern Italy and CRU precipitation datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Miglietta, D.

2009-04-01

Monthly precipitation data in south-eastern Italy from 1920 to 2005 have been extensively analyzed. Data were collected in almost 200 weather stations located 10-20km apart from each other and almost uniformly distributed in Puglia and Basilicata regions. Apart from few years around world war II, time series are mostly complete and allow a reliable reconstruction of climate variability in the considered region. Statistically significant trends have been studied by applying the Mann-Kendall test to annual, seasonal and monthly values. A comparison has been made between observations and precipitation data given by the Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, with both low (30') and high (10') space resolution grid. In particular, rainfall records, time series behaviors and annual cycles at each station have been compared to the corresponding CRU data. CRU time series show a large negative trend for winter since 1970. Trend is not significant if the whole 20th century is considered (both for the whole year and for winter only). This might be considered as an evidence of recent acceleration towards increasingly dry conditions. However correlation between CRU data and observations is not very high and large percent errors are present mainly in the mountains regions, where observations show a large annual cycle, with intense precipitation in winter, which is not present in CRU data. To identify trends, therefore observed data are needed, even at monthly scale. In particular observations confirm the overall trend, but also indicate large spatial variability, with locations where precipitation has even increased since 1970. Daily precipitation data coming from a subset of weather stations have also been studied for the same time period. The distributions of maximum annual rainfalls, wet spells and dry spells were analyzed for each station, together with their time series. The tools of statistical analysis of extremes have been used in order to evaluate

Dust and Biological Aerosols from the Sahara and Asia Influence Precipitation in the Western US

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Creamean, Jessie; Suski, Kaitlyn; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Cazorla, Alberto; DeMott, Paul J.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; White, Allen B.; Ralph, F. M.; Minnis, Patrick; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Tomlinson, Jason M.; Prather, Kimberly

2013-03-29

Winter storms in California’s Sierra Nevada increase seasonal snowpack and provide critical water resources for the state. Thus, the mechanisms influencing precipitation in this region have been the subject of research for decades. Previous studies suggest Asian dust enhances cloud ice and precipitation (1), while few studies consider biological aerosols as an important global source of ice nuclei (IN). Here, we show that dust and biological aerosols transported from as far as the Sahara were present in glaciated high-altitude clouds coincident with elevated IN concentrations and ice-induced precipitation. This study presents the first direct cloud and precipitation measurements showing that Saharan and Asian dust and biological aerosols likely serve as IN and play an important role in orographic precipitation processes over the western United States.

Dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the January 2014 precipitation record in southern UK

Science.gov (United States)

Oueslati, B.; Yiou, P.; Jezequel, A.

2017-12-01

Regional extreme precipitation are projected to intensify as a response to planetary climate change, with important impacts on societies. Understanding and anticipating those events remain a major challenge. In this study, we revisit the mechanisms of winter precipitation record that occurred in southern United Kingdom in January 2014. The physical drivers of this event are analyzed using the water vapor budget. Precipitation changes are decomposed into dynamic contributions, related to changes in atmospheric circulation, and thermodynamic contributions, related to changes in water vapor. We attempt to quantify the relative importance of the two contributions during this event and examine the applicability of Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This work provides a physical interpretation of the mechanisms associated with Southern UK's wettest event, which is complementary to other studies based on statistical approaches (Schaller et al., 2016, Yiou et al., 2017). The analysis is carried out using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. This is motivated by the horizontal resolution of this dataset. It is then applied to present-day simulations and future projections of CMIP5 models on selected extreme precipitation events in southern UK that are comparable to January 2014 in terms of atmospheric circulation.References:Schaller, N. et al. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts, Nature Clim. Change, 2016, 6, 627-634 Yiou, P., et al. A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2017, 3, 17-31

Study of variations of stable isotopes in precipitation: case of Antananarivo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Randrianarivola, M.

2014-01-01

The isotopic signature of precipitation is the input signal in any study of hydrological cycle. The scientific objective of this work is to better understand the isotopic variations in precipitation and identify their processes. We used the network of measurement GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) in which data is acquired by the International Atomic Energy Agency through isotope hydrology laboratory at INSTN-Madagascar. Analyzes stable isotopes ( 18O and 2 H), were performed at a monthly time step. We were able to confirm the relative importance of different mechanisms governing the isotopic composition of precipitation. The spatial distribution of abundance ratios of Antananarivo rain is in fact dictated by the temperature which follow indirectly from the effects of altitude and seasonal variations. At the monthly scale, local meteoric water line δ 2 H versus δ 18 O shows the specificity of Antananarivo (deuterium excess of 17.5‰ ). Additionally, seasonal variations in precipitation is related to the temperature such that in summer (d=15‰) and winter (d=18‰) [fr

Measurement X radiation > 30 KeV in the Brazilian magnetic anomaly with omnidirectional detectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinto Junior, O.; Gonzalez-Alarcon, W.D.; Gonzalez, A.L.C. de; Martin, I.M.; Dutra, S.L.G.; Pinto, I.R.C.A.; Pereira, A.E.C.; Senador, R.

1982-07-01

Atmospheric X-Rays measurements, with energies > 30 KeV, were performed at Sao Jose dos Campos-Brazil (23 0 S, 46 0 W Geographic) on April 14 and December 19, 1981, using omnidirectional NaI (Tl) scintillation counters on board stratospheric balloons. The main purpose of these measurements is to study the dynamics of precipitating electrons at the Brazilian Magnetic Anomaly. Studies on similar measurements during the previous decade seemed to show the existence of approximately 100 KeV precipitating electrons, possibly related to a coulomb scattering with the atmosophere. The studies on the recent measurements try not only to confirm such indications, but also to show further features of the dynamics of precipitating electrons, mainly during magnetically active time intervals. During such intervals, more energetic electrons (up to approximately 1000 KeV) also seem to precipitate, probably due to resonant wave-particle interactions at the low latitude inner magnetosphere. The collected data during the recent measurements seem to indicate the existence of such interactions. (Author) [pt

Seasonal and ENSO Influences on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Galápagos Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, N. J.; Conroy, J. L.; Noone, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Rea, S.

2018-01-01

The origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotope-based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) are sparse and largely unevaluated in the literature, although insights from such analyses would benefit the interpretations of several regional isotope-based paleoclimate records. Here we present a new 3.5 year record of daily-resolved δ18Op and δDp from Santa Cruz, Galápagos. With a prior 13 year record of monthly δ18Op and δDp from the island, these new data reveal controls on the stable isotopic composition of regional precipitation on event to interannual time scales. Overall, we find Galápagos δ18Op is significantly correlated with precipitation amount on daily and monthly time scales. The majority of Galápagos rain events are drizzle, or garúa, derived from local marine boundary layer vapor, with corresponding high δ18Op values due to the local source and increased evaporation and equilibration of smaller drops with boundary layer vapor. On monthly time scales, only precipitation in very strong, warm season El Niño months has substantially lower δ18Op values, as the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection (28°C) is only surpassed at these times. The 2015/2016 El Niño event did not produce strong precipitation or δ18Op anomalies due to the short period of warm SST anomalies, which did not extend into the peak of the warm season. Eastern Pacific proxy isotope records may be biased toward periods of high rainfall during strong to very strong El Niño events.

Scaling precipitation input to spatially distributed hydrological models by measured snow distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Vögeli

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Accurate knowledge on snow distribution in alpine terrain is crucial for various applicationssuch as flood risk assessment, avalanche warning or managing water supply and hydro-power.To simulate the seasonal snow cover development in alpine terrain, the spatially distributed,physics-based model Alpine3D is suitable. The model is typically driven by spatial interpolationsof observations from automatic weather stations (AWS, leading to errors in the spatial distributionof atmospheric forcing. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, maps of snowdepth can be acquired with high spatial resolution and accuracy. In this work, maps of the snowdepth distribution, calculated from summer and winter digital surface models based on AirborneDigital Sensors (ADS, are used to scale precipitation input data, with the aim to improve theaccuracy of simulation of the spatial distribution of snow with Alpine3D. A simple method toscale and redistribute precipitation is presented and the performance is analysed. The scalingmethod is only applied if it is snowing. For rainfall the precipitation is distributed by interpolation,with a simple air temperature threshold used for the determination of the precipitation phase.It was found that the accuracy of spatial snow distribution could be improved significantly forthe simulated domain. The standard deviation of absolute snow depth error is reduced up toa factor 3.4 to less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error in snow distribution was reducedwhen using representative input sources for the simulation domain. For inter-annual scaling, themodel performance could also be improved, even when using a remote sensing dataset from adifferent winter. In conclusion, using remote sensing data to process precipitation input, complexprocesses such as preferential snow deposition and snow relocation due to wind or avalanches,can be substituted and modelling performance of spatial snow distribution is improved.

Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: the effect on regional crop yield forecasts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wit, de A.J.W.; Boogaard, H.L.; Diepen, van C.A.

2005-01-01

This paper explores the effect of uncertainty in precipitation and radiation on crop simulation results at local (50 × 50 km grids) and regional scale (NUTS1 regions) and on the crop yield forecasts for Germany and France. Two experiments were carried out where crop yields for winter-wheat and grain

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

OpenAIRE

Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

2006-01-01

Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

Characteristics and seasonal variations of precipitation phenomena at Syowa Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroyuki Konishi

1997-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term observations of precipitating clouds were carried out by a vertical pointing radar, PPI radar and a 37 GHz microwave radiometer at Syowa Station (69°00′S, 39°35′E, Antarctica in 1989. It is concluded from the observations that precipitation near Syowa Station, Antarctica is mainly brought by cloud vortices associated with extratropical cyclones which advance to high latitude while developing to a mature stage. The seasonal variations of clouds and precipitation were analyzed corresponding to the seasonal changes of air temperature and sea ice area. The occurrence frequencies of cloud vortices which brought snowfall to Syowa Station increased in the fall and spring seasons corresponding to activity of the circumpolar trough. However, the activities of cloud systems that bring precipitation weaken in spring when the sea ice area expands to low latitudes, because of less supply of heat and vapor. In 1989,the amount of precipitation in spring brought by a few snowfall events was as large as the amount of precipitation in fall brought by frequent snowfall events. Radar observations revealed that there were three abundant snowfall seasons at Syowa Station and the amount of snowfall was uniform in all seasons except summer. The amounts of precipitation in fall, winter and spring were 74,74 and 53mm respectively.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-07-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Currie

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5–10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries

Changing characteristics and spatial differentiation of spring precipitation in Southwest China during 1961–2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Hong-Lan; Zhang Qiang; Zhang Jun-Guo; Hu Wen-Chao; Guo Jun-Qin; Wang Sheng

2015-01-01

In this study, we analyze spring precipitation from 92 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 to understand temporal–spatial variability and change of spring precipitation over Southwest China. Various analysis methods are used for different purposes, including empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and rotated EOF (REOF) for analyzing spatial structure change of precipitation anomaly, and the Mann–Kendall testing method to determine whether there were abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the precipitation has a domain uniform structure; the second is dominated by a spatial dipole; and the third contains five variability centers. The 2000s is the decade with the largest amount of precipitation while the 1990s is the decade with the smallest amount of precipitation. The year-to-year difference of that region is large: the amount of the largest precipitation year doubles that of the smallest precipitation year. We also find that spring precipitation in Southwest China experienced a few abrupt changes: a sudden increase at 1966, a sudden decrease at 1979, and a sudden increase at 1995. We speculate that the spring precipitation will increase gradually in the next two decades. (paper)

Augmenting Satellite Precipitation Estimation with Lightning Information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahrooghy, Majid [Mississippi State University (MSU); Anantharaj, Valentine G [ORNL; Younan, Nicolas H. [Mississippi State University (MSU); Petersen, Walter A. [NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; Hsu, Kuo-Lin [University of California, Irvine; Behrangi, Ali [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; Aanstoos, James [Mississippi State University (MSU)

2013-01-01

We have used lightning information to augment the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Imagery using an Artificial Neural Network - Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). Co-located lightning data are used to segregate cloud patches, segmented from GOES-12 infrared data, into either electrified (EL) or non-electrified (NEL) patches. A set of features is extracted separately for the EL and NEL cloud patches. The features for the EL cloud patches include new features based on the lightning information. The cloud patches are classified and clustered using self-organizing maps (SOM). Then brightness temperature and rain rate (T-R) relationships are derived for the different clusters. Rain rates are estimated for the cloud patches based on their representative T-R relationship. The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) for daily precipitation estimates is improved by almost 12% for the winter season. In the summer, no significant improvements in ETS are noted.

Temperature decrease in the extratropics of South America in response to a tropical forcing during the austral winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mueller, G.V. [Centro de Investigaciones Cientificas y Transferencia de Tecnologia a la Produccion (CICYTTP-CONICET), Diamante, Entre Rios (Argentina)

2010-07-01

This paper focuses on the dynamic mechanisms that create favorable conditions for the occurrence of frosts that affect large areas of Argentina and are denominated generalized frosts (GF). The hemispheric teleconnection patterns linked to extreme cold events affecting central and northeastern Argentina during winter are identified. The objective is to determine whether the conditions found in previous studies for the composite of winters with extreme (maximum and minimum) frequency of GF occurrence respond to typical characteristics of the austral winter or they are inherent to those particular winters. Taking the mean winter as basic state in the 1961-1990 period, a series of numerical experiments are run using a primitive equation model in which waves are excited with a thermal forcing. The positions of the thermal forcing are chosen according to observed convection anomalies in a basic state given by the austral winters with extreme frequency of GF occurrence. The wave trains excited by anomalous convection situated in specific regions may propagate across the Pacific Ocean and reach South America with the appropriate phase, creating the local favorable conditions for the occurrence of GF. However, the anomalous convection is, by itself, not sufficient since the response also depends on the basic state configuration. This is proved by placing the forcing over the region of significant anomalous convection for maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence and the response was very different in comparison to the mean winter. It is concluded that the conditions for a greater GF frequency of occurrence are inherent to these particular winters, so that such conditions are not present in the average winter. (orig.)

The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.

2016-02-01

During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharin, V.V.

1994-01-01

Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

Regional monitoring of environmental physics climate related anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

El-Askary, Hesham

2004-11-01

Scientific communities have been working in creating and enhancing scientific research programs in which in situ and satellite data as well as remote sensing (RS) technologies are being applied to regional environmental issues. These issues include the effects of climate change on regional flooding, droughts and the impact of human activities as they relate to feedbacks on the global climate. More specifically, one needs to evaluate the potential impact of climatological variability on social, economic, and human activities. In addition, the study of their effects on agriculture, forests, local natural ecosystems and water climate-related resources, is most important. Finally, dust storms and other natural events such as droughts can have great local impacts. Approximately half of the dust in today's atmosphere may be the result of changes to the environment caused by human activities, including agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation. Climate variability may lead to the occurrence of some severe environmental phenomena like dust storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts. Under normal conditions we can detect different dust effects associated with the movement of storms as well as different rain patterns that do not affect much of the surrounding environment either at regional or global scales. On the other hand, under abnormal climatological conditions, high anomalies of precipitation might occur due to the presence of hurricanes or other events, leading to severe flooding events. In this dissertation, we apply time series analysis techniques to remote sensing and in situ data to detect precipitation and dust storm anomalies and study their behavior on regional scales. The first application is the detection and monitoring of dust storms events over parts of the Middle East and Asia. Dust storms cause health and economic hazards. In this thesis dust storms development is examined based on using remote sensing. It utilizes a combination of optical

Interannual variability of the stratospheric wave driving during northern winter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. M. Kelder

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The strength of the stratospheric wave driving during northern winter is often quantified by the January–February mean poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, averaged over 40°–80° N (or a similar area and period. Despite the dynamical and chemical relevance of the wave driving, the causes for its variability are still not well understood. In this study, ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1979–2002 are used to examine several factors that significantly affect the interannual variability of the wave driving. The total poleward heat flux at 100 hPa is poorly correlated with that in the troposphere, suggesting a decoupling between 100 hPa and the troposphere. However, the individual zonal wave-1 and wave-2 contributions to the wave driving at 100 hPa do exhibit a significant coupling with the troposphere, predominantly their stationary components. The stationary wave-1 contribution to the total wave driving significantly depends on the latitude of the stationary wave-1 source in the troposphere. The results suggest that this dependence is associated with the varying ability of stationary wave-1 activity to enter the tropospheric waveguide at mid-latitudes. The wave driving anomalies are separated into three parts: one part due to anomalies in the zonal correlation coefficient between the eddy temperature and eddy meridional wind, another part due to anomalies in the zonal eddy temperature amplitude, and a third part due to anomalies in the zonal eddy meridional wind amplitude. It is found that year-to-year variability in the zonal correlation coefficient between the eddy temperature and the eddy meridional wind is the most dominant factor in explaining the year-to-year variability of the poleward eddy heat flux.

Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui

2012-01-01

An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2008-05-15

In this study the potential future changes in various aspects of daily precipitation events over Europe as a consequence of the anticipated future increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated. This is done by comparing two 3-member ensembles of simulations with the HIRHAM regional climate model for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, respectively. Daily precipitation events are characterized by their frequency and intensity, and heavy precipitation events are described via 30-year return levels of daily precipitation. Further, extended periods with and without rainfall (wet and dry spells) are studied, considering their frequency and length as well as the average and extreme amounts of precipitation accumulated during wet spells, the latter again described via 30-year return levels. The simulations show marked changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe due to the anticipated greenhouse warming. In winter, for instance, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except for the region on the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean region. The changes in the intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are characterized by a similar pattern except for central Europe with a tendency of decreased 30-year return levels and increased precipitation intensity. In summer, on the other hand, the frequency of wet days is decreased over most of Europe except for northern Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. In contrast, the precipitation intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are increased over entire Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe. The changes in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are generally stronger than the corresponding changes in the precipitation intensity but can have opposite signs in some regions. Also the distribution of wet days is changed in the future. During summer, for instance, both the frequency and the length

observation and analysis of the structure of winter precipitation-generating clouds using ground-based sensor measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Menéndez José Luis, Marcos; Gómez José Luis, Sánchez; Campano Laura, López; Ortega Eduardo, García; Suances Andrés, Merino; González Sergio, Fernández; Salvador Estíbaliz, Gascón; González Lucía, Hermida

2015-04-01

In this study, we used a 28-day database corresponding to December, January and February of 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 campaigns to analyze cloud structure that produced precipitation in the Sierra Norte near Madrid, Spain. We used remote sensing measurements, both active type like the K-band Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and passive type like the Radiometrics MP-3000A multichannel microwave radiometer. Using reflectivity data from the MRR, we determined the important microphysical parameters of Ice Water Content (IWC) and its integrated value over the atmospheric column, or Ice Water Path (IWP). Among the measurements taken by the MP-3000A were Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). By representing these data together, sharp declines in LWP and IWV were evident, coincident with IWP increases. This result indicates the ability of a K-band radar to measure the amount of ice in the atmospheric column, simultaneously revealing the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen mechanism. We also used a Present Weather Sensor (VPF-730; Biral Ltd., Bristol, UK) to determine the type and amount of precipitation at the surface. With these data, we used regression equations to establish the relationship between visibility and precipitation intensity. In addition, through theoretical precipitation visibility-intensity relationships, we estimated the type of crystal, degree of accretion (riming), and moisture content of fallen snow crystals.

Global gravitational anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Witten, E.

1985-01-01

A general formula for global gauge and gravitational anomalies is derived. It is used to show that the anomaly free supergravity and superstring theories in ten dimensions are all free of global anomalies that might have ruined their consistency. However, it is shown that global anomalies lead to some restrictions on allowed compactifications of these theories. For example, in the case of O(32) superstring theory, it is shown that a global anomaly related to π 7 (O(32)) leads to a Dirac-like quantization condition for the field strength of the antisymmetric tensor field. Related to global anomalies is the question of the number of fermion zero modes in an instanton field. It is argued that the relevant gravitational instantons are exotic spheres. It is shown that the number of fermion zero modes in an instanton field is always even in ten dimensional supergravity. (orig.)

Seasonal change in precipitation, snowpack, snowmelt, soil water and streamwater chemistry, northern Michigan

Science.gov (United States)

Stottlemyer, R.; Toczydlowski, D.

1999-01-01

We have studied weekly precipitation, snowpack, snowmelt, soil water and streamwater chemistry throughout winter for over a decade in a small (176 ha) northern Michigan watershed with high snowfall and vegetated by 60 to 80 year-old northern hardwoods. In this paper, we examine physical, chemical, and biological processes responsible for observed seasonal change in streamwater chemistry based upon intensive study during winter 1996-1997. The objective was to define the contributions made to winter and spring streamwater chemical concentration and flux by processes as snowmelt, over-winter forest floor and surface soil mineralization, immobilization, and exchange, and subsurface flowpath. The forest floor and soil were unfrozen beneath the snowpack which permitted most snowmelt to enter. Over-winter soil mineralization and other biological processes maintain shallow subsurface ion and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) reservoirs. Small, but steady, snowmelt throughout winter removed readily mobilized soil NO3- which resulted in high over-winter streamwater concentrations but little flux. Winter soil water levels and flowpaths were generally deep which increased soil water and streamwater base cation (C(B)), HCO3-, and Si concentrations. Spring snowmelt increased soil water levels and removal of ions and DOC from the biologically active forest floor and shallow soils. The snowpack solute content was a minor component in determining streamwater ion concentration or flux during and following peak snowmelt. Exchangeable ions, weakly adsorbed anions, and DOC in the forest floor and surface soils dominated the chemical concentration and flux in soil water and streamwater. Following peak snowmelt, soil microbial immobilization and rapidly increased plant uptake of limiting nutrients removed nearly all available nitrogen from soil water and streamwater. During the growing season high evapotranspiration increased subsurface flowpath depth which in turn removed weathering

Variability and trends of wet season temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and relationships with precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Oueslati, Boutheina; Camberlin, Pierre; Zoungrana, Joël; Roucou, Pascal; Diallo, Saliou

2018-02-01

The relationships between precipitation and temperature in the central Sudano-Sahelian belt are investigated by analyzing 50 years (1959-2008) of observed temperature (Tx and Tn) and rainfall variations. At daily time-scale, both Tx and Tn show a marked decrease as a response to rainfall occurrence, with a strongest departure from normal 1 day after the rainfall event (-0.5 to -2.5 °C depending on the month). The cooling is slightly larger when heavy rainfall events (>5 mm) are considered. The temperature anomalies weaken after the rainfall event, but are still significant several days later. The physical mechanisms accounting for the temperature response to precipitation are analysed. The Tx drop is accounted for by reduced incoming solar radiation associated with increased cloud cover and increased surface evaporation following surface moistening. The effect of evaporation becomes dominant a few days after the rainfall event. The reduced daytime heat storage and the subsequent sensible heat flux result in a later negative Tn anomaly. The effect of rainfall variations on temperature is significant for long-term warming trends. The rainfall decrease experienced between 1959 and 2008 accounts for a rainy season Tx increase of 0.15 to 0.3 °C, out of a total Tx increase of 1.3 to 1.5 °C. These results have strong implications on the assessment of future temperature changes. The dampening or amplifying effects of precipitation are determined by the sign of future precipitation trends. Confidence on temperature changes under global warming partly depend on the robustness of precipitation projections.

The diffusion mechanism and convective transport in the formation of surface anomalies of RADON-222 generated at depth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pereira, E.B.; Hamza, V.M.

1982-01-01

A preliminar study on the importance of a thermally-activated convective transport of radon is made in order to explain radon anomalies at surface generated at great depth. It is theoretically shown that convective currents should be of the order of 10 μm/s or larger to explain such anomalies. The influence of surface temperature changes on the convective transport is also discussed. Seasonal changes in temperature typical of climates such as that of southern Brazil can develop thermal inversion layers at depths up to 20 metres. The optimum period of the year for the employment of surface emanometric techniques is during the second and the third months after the winter peak when the thermal inversion barriers are less intense. (Author) [pt

Pronounced anomalies of air, water, ice conditions in the Barents and Kara Seas, and the Sea of Azov

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gennady G. Matishov

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the anomalous hydrometeorological situation that occurred at the beginning of 2012 in the seas of the Russian Arctic and Russian South. Atmospheric blocking in the temperate zone and the extension of the Siberian High to the Iberian Peninsula (known as the Voeikov et al. axis led to a positive anomaly of air and water temperatures and a decrease in the ice extent in the Barents and Kara Seas. At the same time a prolonged negative air temperature anomaly was recorded in central and southern Europe and led to anomalously severe ice conditions in the Sea of Azov. Winter hydrographic conditions in the Barents and Kara Seas are illustrated by a unique set of observations made using expendable bathythermosalinographs (XCTD.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-01-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Assessing onset and length of greening period in six vegetation types in Oaxaca, Mexico, using NDVI-precipitation relationships.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Mendoza, L; Galicia, L; Cuevas-Fernández, M L; Magaña, V; Gómez, G; Palacio-Prieto, J L

2008-07-01

Variations in the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) for the state of Oaxaca, in southern Mexico, were analyzed in terms of precipitation anomalies for the period 1997-2003. Using 10-day averages in NDVI data, obtained from AVHRR satellite information, the response of six types of vegetation to intra-annual and inter-annual fluctuations in precipitation were examined. The onset and temporal evolution of the greening period were studied in terms of precipitation variations through spectral analysis (coherence and phase). The results indicate that extremely dry periods, such as those observed in 1997 and 2001, resulted in low values of NDVI for much of Oaxaca, while good precipitation periods produced a rapid response (20-30 days of delay) from a stressed to a non-stressed condition in most vegetation types. One of these rapid changes occurred during the transition from dry to wet conditions during the summer of 1998. As in many parts of the tropics and subtropics, the NDVI reflects low frequency variations in precipitation on several spatial scales. Even after long dry periods (2001-2002), the various regional vegetation types are capable of recovering when a good rainy season takes place, indicating that vegetation types such as the evergreen forests in the high parts of Oaxaca respond better to rainfall characteristics (timing, amount) than to temperature changes, as is the case in most mid-latitudes. This finding may be relevant to prepare climate change scenarios for forests, where increases in surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are expected.

Low cloud precipitation climatology in the southeastern Pacific marine stratocumulus region using CloudSat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rapp, Anita D; Lebsock, Matthew; L’Ecuyer, Tristan

2013-01-01

A climatology of low cloud surface precipitation occurrence and intensity from the new CloudSat 2C-RAIN-PROFILE algorithm is presented from June 2006 through December 2010 for the southeastern Pacific region of marine stratocumulus. Results show that over 70% of low cloud precipitation falls as drizzle. Application of an empirical evaporation model suggests that 50–80% of the precipitation evaporates before it reaches the surface. Segregation of the CloudSat ascending and descending overpasses shows that the majority of precipitation occurs at night. Examination of the seasonal cycle shows that the precipitation is most frequent during the austral winter and spring; however there is considerable regional variability. Conditional rain rates increase from east to west with a maximum occurring in the region influenced by the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Area average rain rates are highest in the region where precipitation rates are moderate, but most frequent. The area average surface rain rate for low cloud precipitation for this region is ∼0.22 mm d −1 , in good agreement with in situ estimates, and is greatly improved over earlier CloudSat precipitation products. These results provide a much-needed quantification of surface precipitation in a region that is currently underestimated in existing satellite-based precipitation climatologies. (letter)

Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

2014-05-01

Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

Sub-ionospheric VLF signal anomaly due to geomagnetic storms: a statistical study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Tatsuta

2015-11-01

Full Text Available We investigate quantitatively the effect of geomagnetic storms on the sub-ionospheric VLF/LF (Very Low Frequency/Low Frequency propagations for different latitudes based on 2-year nighttime data from Japanese VLF/LF observation network. Three statistical parameters such as average signal amplitude, variability of the signal amplitude, and nighttime fluctuation were calculated daily for 2 years for 16–21 independent VLF/LF transmitter–receiver propagation paths consisting of three transmitters and seven receiving stations. These propagation paths are suitable to simultaneously study high-latitude, low-mid-latitude and mid-latitude D/E-region ionospheric properties. We found that these three statistical parameters indicate significant anomalies exceeding at least 2 times of their standard deviation from the mean value during the geomagnetic storm time period in the high-latitude paths with an occurrence rate of anomaly between 40 and 50 % presumably due to the auroral energetic electron precipitation. The mid-latitude and low-mid-latitude paths have a smaller influence from the geomagnetic activity because of a lower occurrence rate of anomalies even during the geomagnetically active time period (from 20 to 30 %. The anomalies except geomagnetic storm periods may be caused by atmospheric and/or lithospheric origins. The statistical occurrence rates of ionospheric anomalies for different latitudinal paths during geomagnetic storm and non-storm time periods are basic and important information not only to identify the space weather effects toward the lower ionosphere depending on the latitudes but also to separate various external physical causes of lower ionospheric disturbances.

Kohn anomalies in superconductors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flatte, M.E.

1994-01-01

The detailed behavior of phonon dispersion curves near momenta which span the electronic Fermi sea in a superconductor is presented. An anomaly, similar to the metallic Kohn anomaly, exists in a superconductor's dispersion curves when the frequency of the photon spanning the Fermi sea exceeds twice the superconducting energy gap. This anomaly occurs at approximately the same momentum but is stronger than the normal-state Kohn anomaly. It also survives at finite temperature, unlike the metallic anomaly. Determination of Fermi-surface diameters from the location of these anomalies, therefore, may be more successful in the superconducting phase than in the normal state. However, the superconductor's anomaly fades rapidly with increased phonon frequency and becomes unobservable when the phonon frequency greatly exceeds the gap. This constraint makes these anomalies useful only in high-temperature superconductors such as La 1.85 Sr 0.15 CuO 4

Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, G. W. K.; Schweiger, A.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

2018-03-01

The winter Arctic atmosphere is under the influence of two very different circulation systems: extratropical cyclones travel along the primary North Atlantic storm track from Iceland toward the eastern Arctic, while the western Arctic is characterized by a quasi-stationary region of high pressure known as the Beaufort High. The winter (January through March) of 2017 featured an anomalous reversal of the normally anticyclonic surface winds and sea ice motion in the western Arctic. This reversal can be traced to a collapse of the Beaufort High as the result of the intrusion of low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic, along the East Siberian Coast, into the Arctic Basin. Thin sea ice as the result of an extremely warm autumn (October through December) of 2016 contributed to the formation of an anomalous thermal low over the Barents Sea that, along with a northward shift of the tropospheric polar vortex, permitted this intrusion. The collapse of the Beaufort High during the winter of 2017 was associated with simultaneous 2-sigma sea level pressure, surface wind, and sea ice circulation anomalies in the western Arctic. As the Arctic sea ice continues to thin, such reversals may become more common and impact ocean circulation, sea ice, and biology.

Seasonality in ENSO-related precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index in Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Poveda, GermáN.; Jaramillo, Alvaro; Gil, Marta MaríA.; Quiceno, Natalia; Mantilla, Ricardo I.

2001-08-01

An analysis of hydrologic variability in Colombia shows different seasonal effects associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Spectral and cross-correlation analyses are developed between climatic indices of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the annual cycle of Colombia's hydrology: precipitation, river flows, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our findings indicate stronger anomalies during December-February and weaker during March-May. The effects of ENSO are stronger for streamflow than for precipitation, owing to concomitant effects on soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We studied time variability of 10-day average volumetric soil moisture, collected at the tropical Andes of central Colombia at depths of 20 and 40 cm, in coffee growing areas characterized by shading vegetation ("shaded coffee"), forest, and sunlit coffee. The annual and interannual variability of soil moisture are highly intertwined for the period 1997-1999, during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Soil moisture exhibited greater negative anomalies during 1997-1998 El Niño, being strongest during the two dry seasons that normally occur in central Colombia. Soil moisture deficits were more drastic at zones covered by sunlit coffee than at those covered by forest and shaded coffee. Soil moisture responds to wetter than normal precipitation conditions during La Niña 1998-1999, reaching maximum levels throughout that period. The probability density function of soil moisture records is highly skewed and exhibits different kinds of multimodality depending upon land cover type. NDVI exhibits strong negative anomalies throughout the year during El Niños, in particular during September-November (year 0) and June-August (year 0). The strong negative relation between NDVI and El Niño has enormous implications for carbon, water, and energy budgets over the region, including the tropical Andes and Amazon River basin.

Farmer response to climatic and agricultural market drivers: characteristic time scales and sensitivities

Science.gov (United States)

Wurster, P. M.; Maneta, M. P.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Beguería, S.; Silverman, N. L.; Holden, Z.

2017-12-01

Agriculture in the intermountain western United States is dominated by extensive farming and ranching, mostly reliant on rainfed crops and therefore very exposed to precipitation shortfalls. It is also poorly diversified, dominated by five or six major grain crops, which makes it vulnerable to changes in agricultural markets. The economy of the region is very reliant on this type of agriculture, making the entire economy vulnerable to climatic and market fluctuations. Western agriculture is also of significant importance for national food security. Resource managers in the region are increasingly concerned with the impacts that more frequent and severe droughts, or the collapse of crop prices, may have on producers and food production. Effective resource management requires an understanding not only of the regional impact of adverse climatic and market events, but also of which geographic areas are most vulnerable, and why. Unfortunately, few studies exist that look into how farmers in different geographic areas respond to climate and market drivers. In this study we analyze the influence of precipitation and crop price anomalies on crop production, and map the characteristic time scale of these anomalies that correlate best with production anomalies for the 56 counties of Montana, U.S.A. We conduct this analysis using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and defining a standardized crop value index (SCVI) and a standardized crop production index (SCPI). We use 38 years of data to calculate precipitation anomalies at monthly time scales and annual data to calculate crop price and production anomalies. The standardization of the indices allows for straightforward comparison of the relative influence of climatic and market fluctuations on production anomalies. We apply our methodology to winter wheat, spring durum wheat, barley, alfalfa, and beets which are the most valuable crops produced in the state. Results from this study show that precipitation anomalies

Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

2017-12-01

Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ying

2017-04-01

Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

Science.gov (United States)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

2018-04-01

Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Pei

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

Science.gov (United States)

Crossman, Jill; Eimers, M Catherine; Casson, Nora J.; Burns, Douglas A.; Campbell, John L.; Likens, Gene E; Mitchell, Myron J; Nelson, Sarah J.; Shanley, James B.; Watmough, Shaun A.; Webster, Kara L

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although on average only 3.3 % of annual precipitation fell as ROS during winter over the study period, these events contributed a significant proportion of annual and winter N-NO3 export at the majority of sites (average of 12 and 42 %, respectively); with the exception of the most northern catchment, where total winter precipitation was exceptionally low (average 77 mm). In years with a greater magnitude of ROS events, the timing of the peak N-NO3 export period (during spring melt) was redistributed to earlier in the year. Variability in ROS frequency and magnitude amongst sites was high and a generalised linear model demonstrated that this spatial variability could be explained by interactive effects between regional and site-specific drivers. Snowpack coverage was particularly important for explaining the site-specific ROS response. Specifically, ROS events were less common when higher temperatures eliminated snow cover despite increasing the proportion of winter rainfall, whereas ROS event frequency was greater at sites where sufficient snow cover remained. This research suggests that catchment response to changes in N deposition is sensitive to climate change; a vulnerability which appears to vary in intensity throughout the seasonally snow-covered temperate region. Furthermore, the sensitivity of stream N-NO3 export to ROS events and potential shifts (earlier) in the timing of N-NO3 export relative to other nutrients affect downstream nutrient stoichiometry and the community composition of phytoplankton and other algae.

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

2014-01-01

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

Caldera unrest detected with seawater temperature anomalies at Deception Island, Antarctic Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Berrocoso, M.; Prates, G.; Fernández-Ros, A.; Peci, L. M.; de Gil, A.; Rosado, B.; Páez, R.; Jigena, B.

2018-04-01

Increased thermal activity was detected to coincide with the onset of volcano inflation in the seawater-filled caldera at Deception Island. This thermal activity was manifested in pulses of high water temperature that coincided with ocean tide cycles. The seawater temperature anomalies were detected by a thermometric sensor attached to the tide gauge (bottom pressure sensor). This was installed where the seawater circulation and the locations of known thermal anomalies, fumaroles and thermal springs, together favor the detection of water warmed within the caldera. Detection of the increased thermal activity was also possible because sea ice, which covers the entire caldera during the austral winter months, insulates the water and thus reduces temperature exchange between seawater and atmosphere. In these conditions, the water temperature data has been shown to provide significant information about Deception volcano activity. The detected seawater temperature increase, also observed in soil temperature readings, suggests rapid and near-simultaneous increase in geothermal activity with onset of caldera inflation and an increased number of seismic events observed in the following austral summer.

Introduction to anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Gaume, L.

1986-01-01

These lectures are dedicated to the study of the recent progress and implications of anomalies in quantum field theory. In this introduction the author recapitulates some of the highlights in the history of the subject. The outline of these lectures is as follows: Section II contains a quick review of spinors in Euclidean and Minkowski space, some other group theory results relevant for the computation of anomalies in various dimensions, and an exposition of the index theorem. Section III starts the analysis of fermion determinants and chiral effective actions by deriving the non-Abelian anomaly from index theory. Using the results of Section II, the anomaly cancellation recently discovered by Green and Schwarz will be presented in Section IV as well as the connection of these results of Section III with the descent equations and the Wess-Zumino-Witten Lagrangians. Section V contains the generalization of anomalies to σ-models and some of its application in string theory. Section VI will deal with the anomalies from the Hamiltonian point of view. An exact formula for the imaginary part of the effective action for chiral fermions in the presence of arbitrary external gauge and gravitational fields will be derived in Section VII, and used in Section VIII for the study of global anomalies. 85 references

Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields During Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2016-01-01

We perform a series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental U.S., with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-mb eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find similar results; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the US interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi Valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the US-Canada border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

Influence of temperature, precipitation, and cultivar characteristics on changes in the spectrum of pathogenic fungi in winter wheat.

Science.gov (United States)

Hýsek, Josef; Vavera, Radek; Růžek, Pavel

2017-06-01

In view of the threat posed by climate change, we studied the influence of temperature, precipitation, cultivar characteristics, and technical management measures on the occurrence of phytopathogenic fungi in wheat during 2009-2013. This work involved experiments at two sites differing in average temperatures and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation appear to influence differences in the spectrum of phytopathogenic fungi at the individual sites. In 2009 (the warmest year), Alternaria triticina was dominant. In 2010 (having the smallest deviations from the average for individual years), Septoria tritici dominated. In 2011, Puccinia triticina was most prominent, while in 2012, the genus Drechslera (Pyrenophora) and in 2013, S. tritici and Drechslera tritici-repentis (DTR) dominated. Temperature and precipitation levels in the individual spring months (warmer March to May) played a large role, especially for the leaf rust P. triticina in 2011. A change of only 1 °C with different precipitation during a year played a significant role in changing wheat's fungal spectrum. Cluster analysis showed the differences between single pathogenic fungi on wheat in a single year due to temperature and precipitation. Alternaria abundance was strongly influenced by year (p < 0.001) while locality was significant only in certain years (2012, 2013; p = 0.004 and 0.015, respectively). The same factors were revealed to be significant in the case of Puccinia, but locality played a role (p < 0.001) in different years (2011, 2013). The abundance of S. tritici and Pyrenophora tritici-repentis (Drechslera tritici-repentis) was influenced only by year (p < 0.001).

Algebraic structure of chiral anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stora, R.

1985-09-01

I will describe first the algebraic aspects of chiral anomalies, exercising however due care about the topological delicacies. I will illustrate the structure and methods in the context of gauge anomalies and will eventually make contact with results obtained from index theory. I will go into two sorts of generalizations: on the one hand, generalizing the algebraic set up yields e.g. gravitational and mixed gauge anomalies, supersymmetric gauge anomalies, anomalies in supergravity theories; on the other hand most constructions applied to the cohomologies which characterize anomalies easily extend to higher cohomologies. Section II is devoted to a description of the general set up as it applies to gauge anomalies. Section III deals with a number of algebraic set ups which characterize more general types of anomalies: gravitational and mixed gauge anomalies, supersymmetric gauge anomalies, anomalies in supergravity theories. It also includes brief remarks on σ models and a reminder on the full BRST algebra of quantized gauge theories

Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagena, Moges B; Collick, Amy S; Ross, Andrew C; Najjar, Raymond G; Rau, Benjamin; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Fuka, Daniel R; Kleinman, Peter J A; Easton, Zachary M

2018-05-16

Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO 3 -), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and di-nitrogen (N 2 ). Model-average (±standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 ± 12.3%), NO 3 - (17.3 ± 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 ± 18.4%), total P (24.8 ± 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 ± 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N 2 O (0.3 ± 4.8%) and N 2 (0.2 ± 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 ± 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 ± 26.4%), total P (-16.3 ± 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 ± 18.3%), and NO 3 - (-29.1 ± 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N 2 O (-26.9 ± 15.7%) and N 2 (-36.6 ± 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil. Copyright © 2018

Annual Precipitation Fluctuation and Spatial Differentiation Characteristics of the Horqin Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangxu Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is the main water source for vegetation survival in arid and semi-arid areas. However, previous studies always focus on the effects of precipitation in different time scales, but ignore the effects of precipitation in different spatial scales. To further study the effects of precipitation fluctuation in different spatial scales, we used the wavelet analysis method to analyze its temporal and spatial change based on data from eighteen meteorological stations during 1961–2015 in Horqin region. Results showed that: (1 from the overall tendency of precipitation changes, the precipitation inter-annual variations in Horqin region had the tendency of gradually decreasing from the southeast (District IV to the northwest; (2 the precipitation anomalies of District I–IV between 1960 and 1980 were small and approximate to the normal value; (3 in the time scale of 23–32 years, the cyclical fluctuations were very significant and the annual precipitation underwent two cyclical fluctuations from a period of low precipitation to a period of high precipitation; and (4 as results of analyzing the spatial wavelet variance of sub-region, the main cycle of precipitation in District I, District II and District III was between 10 and 11 years, while the main cycle of precipitation in District IV was 25 years. The main conclusions include the following. (1 This region tended to be arid, and the precipitation gradually decreased from the southeast (District IV to northwest (District I. (2 The influence of spatial differentiation characteristics on precipitation fluctuation in this region was cyclical fluctuation, which gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest. The length of the cyclical change period gradually shortened. In the first main cycle, whose annual precipitation changes were most significant, the changing characteristic was District IV and District I decreased from 25 years to 10 years. (3 Predicated from the cyclical

Desert heat island study in winter by mobile transect and remote sensing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Chen-Yi; Brazel, Anthony J.; Chow, Winston T. L.; Hedquist, Brent C.; Prashad, Lela

2009-10-01

A familiar problem in urban environments is the urban heat island (UHI), which potentially increases air conditioning demands, raise pollution levels, and could modify precipitation patterns. The magnitude and pattern of UHI effects have been major concerns of a lot of urban environment studies. Typically, research on UHI magnitudes in arid regions (such as Phoenix, AZ, USA) focuses on summer. UHI magnitudes in Phoenix (more than three million population) attain values in excess of 5°C. This study investigated the early winter period—a time when summer potential evapotranspiration >250 mm has diminished to 8.0°C, comparable to summertime UHI conditions. Through analysis of the Oke (1998) weather factor ΦW, it was determined thermally induced nighttime cool drainage winds could account for inflating the UHI magnitude in winter.

Winters fuels report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

Chiral anomalies and differential geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zumino, B.

1983-10-01

Some properties of chiral anomalies are described from a geometric point of view. Topics include chiral anomalies and differential forms, transformation properties of the anomalies, identification and use of the anomalies, and normalization of the anomalies. 22 references

Quantitative precipitation climatology over the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and a dense network of rain-gauges

Science.gov (United States)

Yatagai, A.

2010-09-01

Quantified grid observation data at a reasonable resolution are indispensable for environmental monitoring as well as for predicting future change of mountain environment. However quantified datasets have not been available for the Himalayan region. Hence we evaluate climatological precipitation data around the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar (PR) data acquired by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over 10 years of observation. To validate and adjust these patterns, we used a dense network of rain gauges collected by the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE Water Resources) project (http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/). We used more than 2600 stations which have more than 10-year monthly precipitation over the Himalayan region (75E-105E, 20-36N) including country data of Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, and China. The region we studied is so topographically complicated that horizontal patterns are not uniform. Therefore, every path data of PR2A25 (near-surface rain) was averaged in a 0.05-degree grid and a 10-year monthly average was computed (hereafter we call PR). On the other hand, for rain-gauge, we first computed cell averages if each 0.05-degree grid cell has 10 years observation or more. Here we refer to the 0.05-degree rain-gauge climatology data as RG data. On the basis of comparisons between the RG and PR composite values, we defined the parameters of the regressions to correct the monthly climatology value based on the rain gauge observations. Compared with the RG, the PR systematically underestimated precipitation by 28-38% in summer (July-September). Significant correlation between TRMM/PR and rain-gauge data was found for all months, but the correlation is relatively low in winter. The relationship is investigated for different elevation zones, and the PR was found to underestimate RG data in most zones, except for certain zones in

Spatial interpolation of hourly precipitation and dew point temperature for the identification of precipitation phase and hydrologic response in a mountainous catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Garen, D. C.; Kahl, A.; Marks, D. G.; Winstral, A. H.

2012-12-01

In mountainous catchments, it is well known that meteorological inputs, such as precipitation, air temperature, humidity, etc. vary greatly with elevation, spatial location, and time. Understanding and monitoring catchment inputs is necessary in characterizing and predicting hydrologic response to these inputs. This is true all of the time, but it is the most dramatically critical during large storms, when the input to the stream system due to rain and snowmelt creates the potential for flooding. Besides such crisis events, however, proper estimation of catchment inputs and their spatial distribution is also needed in more prosaic but no less important water and related resource management activities. The first objective of this study is to apply a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique (elevationally detrended kriging) to precipitation and dew point temperature on an hourly basis and explore its characteristics, accuracy, and other issues. The second objective is to use these spatial fields to determine precipitation phase (rain or snow) during a large, dynamic winter storm. The catchment studied is the data-rich Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed near Boise, Idaho. As part of this analysis, precipitation-elevation lapse rates are examined for spatial and temporal consistency. A clear dependence of lapse rate on precipitation amount exists. Certain stations, however, are outliers from these relationships, showing that significant local effects can be present and raising the question of whether such stations should be used for spatial interpolation. Experiments with selecting subsets of stations demonstrate the importance of elevation range and spatial placement on the interpolated fields. Hourly spatial fields of precipitation and dew point temperature are used to distinguish precipitation phase during a large rain-on-snow storm in December 2005. This application demonstrates the feasibility of producing hourly spatial fields and the importance of doing

Study of the early stages of precipitation of molybdenum in steelwelds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choudhary, H.U.

2001-01-01

The addition of molybdenum to steel welds in quite small concentrations leads to a variety of anomalous microstructural and mechanical property effects. In some cases, the effects manifest even there are no obvious changes in microstructure at the resolution of a transmission electron microscope. It has been reported in the published literature, that an increase in the molybdenum concentration leads to a corresponding increase in the proportion of primary microstructure in multipass welds. Another striking anomaly with molybdenum containing welds, identified in the published literature, is that the strength of such welds is much higher than is estimated using normally reliable models for he prediction of mechanical properties. The surprising feature of this anomaly is that it is present even for the as-deposited microstructure, which has not been deliberately or otherwise tempered. The anomaly cannot therefore be attributed to easily observed secondary hardening effects, and indeed precipitates such a molybdenum carbides are not found to occur in the as-deposited state at the resolution of a conventional transmission electron microscope. An investigation has been carried out to study the possible existence of the early stages of precipitation/clustering of molybdenum atoms, using the atomic resolution method know as APFIM (Atom Probe Field Ion Microscopy). The results has given a strong indication that the anomalous strengthening in the as deposited welds is due to sub-microscopic effects, arising from the fine scale clustering of molybdenum atoms. This clustering appears to occur in the ferrite as the weld cools to ambient temperature after solidification. The effect is essentially secondary hardening, but at the very early stages. (author)