WorldWideScience

Sample records for winter extratropical circulation

  1. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  2. The kinetic and available potential energy budget of a winter extratropical cyclone system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. J.; Dare, P. M.

    1986-01-01

    The energy budget of an extratropical cyclone system which traversed North America and intensified through the period January 9-11, 1975 is presented. The objectives of the study are: (1) to document the complete energy budget of a significant winter cyclone event, and (2) to comment on the significance of latent heat release (LHR) in the cyclone's evolution. Results reveal an overall increase in both kinetic (K) and available potential energy (A). K increases are accounted for by boundary flux convergence of K, while A increases are due to generation by LHR and K to A conversion. In addition, the general A increase is accompanied by a 24 h oscillation that is explained largely by the flux quantity in the A budget equation and is correlated with a similar fluctuation in the K to A conversion. LHR does not appear to be critical in the development of this cyclone system. Rather, LHR acts to increase the intensity of the event. It is hypothesized that the direct influence that LHR had on the deepening cyclone's reduced mass was augmented by an indirect influence, in which pre-existing dry dynamical forcing was enhanced by diabatic heating, thus leading to accelerated cyclone development at a later time.

  3. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2014-04-01

    The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented by 1980, and the climatological mean are analyzed using model output to delineate the three-dimensional structure and to investigate the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The horizontal model circulation in the winter of 1980 is dominated by energetic eddies. The climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation. The simulated water exchange is not hydraulically controlled in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb; instead, the exchange is limited by bottom and lateral boundary friction and, to a lesser extent, by interfacial friction due to the vertical viscosity at the interface between the inflow and the outflow. Key Points Sinking occurs in a narrow boundary layer along the eastern boundary Surface western boundary current switches into an eastern boundary current Water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is not hydraulically controlled © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  4. Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varino, Filipa; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Granier, Jean-Baptiste

    2018-03-01

    The multi-decadal variations of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones during the last century are studied using a vorticity-based tracking algorithm applied to the long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from ECMWF. The variability of moderate-to-deep extra-tropical winter cyclones in ERA-20C show three distinct periods. Two at the beginning and at the end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) present weak or no significant trends in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and only some regional trends. The period in between (1935-1980) is marked by a significant increase in Northern Hemisphere moderate-to-deep cyclones frequency. During the latter period, polar regions underwent a significant cooling over the whole troposphere that increased and shifted poleward the mid-latitude meridional temperature gradient and the baroclinicity. This is linked to positive-to-negative shifts of the PDO between 1935 and 1957 and of the AMO between 1957 and 1980 which mainly reinforced the storm-track eddy generation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions respectively, as seen from baroclinic conversion from mean to eddy potential energy. As a result, both the North Pacific and North Atlantic extra-tropical storms increase in frequency during the two subperiods (1935-1957 and 1957-1980), together with other storm-track quantities such as the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy. In contrast, the first and third periods are characterized by a warming of the polar temperatures. However, as the stronger warming is confined to the lower troposphere, the baroclinicity do not uniformly increase in the whole troposphere. This may explain why the recent rapid increase in polar temperatures has not affected the behaviour of extratropical cyclones very much. Finally, the large magnitude of the positive trend found in moderate-to-deep cyclone frequency during the second period is still questioned as the period is marked by an important increase in the number of assimilated observations. However, the

  5. A New Model Hierarchy to Understand the Impact of Radiation and Convection on the Extratropical Circulation Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to warming. Interestingly, some idealized gray radiation models with simplified convective schemes produce an equatorward jet shift in response to warming. In order to understand the impact of radiation and convection on the circulation response and resolve the discrepancies across the model hierarchy, we introduce a new model radiation-convection hierarchy. The hierarchy spans idealized (gray) through sophisticated (RRTMG) radiation, and idealized (Betts-Miller) through sophisticated (eddy-diffusivity mass-flux scheme) convection schemes in the same general circulation model. It is used to systematically explore the impact of radiation and convection on the extratropical circulation response to climate change independent of mean surface temperature and meridional temperature gradient responses. With a gray radiation scheme, the jet stream shift depends on the prescribed stratospheric optical depth, which controls the climatological jet regime. A large optical depth leads to a split jet and an equatorward shift. A small optical depth leads to a poleward shift. The different shifts are connected to the vertical extent of tropical long wave cooling that impacts the subtropical jet and Hadley circulation. In spite of these sensitivities, the storm track position, defined by the meridonal eddy heat flux and moist static energy flux maxima, shifts robustly poleward. In contrast to gray radiation, with a comprehensive radiation scheme, the jet and storm track shift robustly poleward irrespective of radiative assumptions (clear sky versus cloudy sky, ozone versus no ozone). This response is reproduced by adding more spectral bands and including the water vapor feedback in the gray scheme. Dynamical sensitivities to convective assumption are also explored. Overall the new hierarchy highlights the importance of radiative and

  6. Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    More frequent western atmospheric circulation over Europe results in increased precipitation in winter, and could result in increasing river discharges. We made a quantitative assessment of the impact of variation in atmospheric circulation, defined by the frequency of western circulation in the

  7. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in a general circulation model and observational data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.; Bengtsson, L.

    1994-01-01

    There are various phenomena on different spatial and temporal scales contributing to the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics. One may notice higher-frequency baroclinic disturbances affecting the day-to-day variability of the atmosphere. But one finds also low-frequency fluctuations on a typical time scale of a few weeks. Blocking anticyclones are probably the most prominent example of such features. These fluctuations on different scales, however, are influencing each other, in particular the temporal evolution and spatial distribution. There has been observational work on various phenomena contributing to the intra-seasonal variability for a long time. In the last decade or so, however, with the increasing importance of General Circulation Models there have been some studies dealing with the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by these models

  8. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  9. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST: northern extratropical response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Maynard

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The ECHAM 3.2 (T21, ECHAM 4 (T30 and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes × 72 latitudes atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500 seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the same response obtained with only one model. A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF, and in June-August (JJA. In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus and Shukla (2000 over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP and in a more N-S tripole on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500. There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogeneous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones. The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderatly to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related

  10. Temperature decrease in the extratropics of South America in response to a tropical forcing during the austral winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, G.V. [Centro de Investigaciones Cientificas y Transferencia de Tecnologia a la Produccion (CICYTTP-CONICET), Diamante, Entre Rios (Argentina)

    2010-07-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamic mechanisms that create favorable conditions for the occurrence of frosts that affect large areas of Argentina and are denominated generalized frosts (GF). The hemispheric teleconnection patterns linked to extreme cold events affecting central and northeastern Argentina during winter are identified. The objective is to determine whether the conditions found in previous studies for the composite of winters with extreme (maximum and minimum) frequency of GF occurrence respond to typical characteristics of the austral winter or they are inherent to those particular winters. Taking the mean winter as basic state in the 1961-1990 period, a series of numerical experiments are run using a primitive equation model in which waves are excited with a thermal forcing. The positions of the thermal forcing are chosen according to observed convection anomalies in a basic state given by the austral winters with extreme frequency of GF occurrence. The wave trains excited by anomalous convection situated in specific regions may propagate across the Pacific Ocean and reach South America with the appropriate phase, creating the local favorable conditions for the occurrence of GF. However, the anomalous convection is, by itself, not sufficient since the response also depends on the basic state configuration. This is proved by placing the forcing over the region of significant anomalous convection for maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence and the response was very different in comparison to the mean winter. It is concluded that the conditions for a greater GF frequency of occurrence are inherent to these particular winters, so that such conditions are not present in the average winter. (orig.)

  11. Impacts of SST anomalies on the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation: a case study for the northern winter 1995/1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Losada, T.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departmento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Mechoso, C.R.; Ma, H.Y. [University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2007-12-15

    The present paper selects the northern winter of December 1995-February 1996 for a case study on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. In the Atlantic, the selected winter was characterized by positive SST anomalies over the northern subtropics and east of Newfoundland, and negative anomalies along the US coast. A weak La Nina event developed in the Pacific. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was low, precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was anomalously high, and precipitation over northern Europe was anomalously low. The method of study consists of assessing the sensitivity of ensemble simulations by the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (UCLA AGCM) to SST anomalies from the observation, which are prescribed either in the World Oceans, the Atlantic Ocean only, or the subtropical North Atlantic only. The results obtained are compared with a control run that uses global, time-varying climatological SST. The ensemble simulations with global and Atlantic-only SST anomalies both produce results that resemble the observations over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the atmosphere in the selected winter over those regions, therefore, was primarily determined by conditions within the Atlantic basin. The simulated fields in the tropical North Atlantic show anomalous upward motion and lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) in the atmosphere overlying the positive SST anomalies. Consistently, the subtropical jet intensifies and its core moves equatorward, and precipitation increases over northern Africa and southern Europe. The results also suggest that the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic only do not suffice to produce the atmospheric anomalies observed in the basin during the selected winter. The extratropical SST anomalies would provide a key contribution through increased

  12. Winter atmospheric circulation over Europe and the North Atlantic: an intercomparison of reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

    2016-04-01

    Research on atmospheric circulation has been quite common lately and includes e.g. analyses of circulation properties and trends in both reanalysis datasets and circulation model outputs. In many cases, however, studies have been restricted to only one set of data and only one research method. The goal of our present work is to compare the properties of winter European atmospheric circulation in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, JRA-55, ERA-20C, and 20CRv2) over 1961-2000. The main research method we use is an automated circulation classification. In order to bring robust results, however, eight distinct circulation type calendars are defined based on the reanalysed daily mean sea level pressure patterns, for each of the reanalyses and over the total of eight European domains. Subsequently, basic properties of these calendars are computed and compared. Lastly, we show how results of GCM validation can vary if different reanalyses are taken as a benchmark.

  13. An Assessment of Ozone Photochemistry in the Extratropical Western North Pacific: Impact of Continental Outflow During the Late Winter/Early Spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, J.; Davis, D.; Chen, G.; Bradshaw, J.; Sandholm, S.; Kondo, Y.; Liu, S.; Browell, E.; Gregory, G.; Anderson, B.; hide

    1997-01-01

    This study examines the influence of photochemical processes on tropospheric ozone distributions over the extratropical western North Pacific. The analysis presented here is based on data collected during the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West Phase B (PEM-West B) field study conducted in February-March 1994. Sampling in the study region involved altitudes of 0-12 km and latitudes of 10deg S to 50deg N. The extratropical component of the data set (i.e., 20-50deg N) was defined by markedly different photochemical environments north and south of 30deg N. This separation was clearly defined by an abrupt decrease in the tropopause height near 30deg N and a concomitant increase in total O3 column density. This shift in overhead O3 led to highly reduced rates of O3 formation and destruction for the 30-50deg N latitude regime. Both latitude ranges, however, still exhibited net O3 production at all altitudes. Of special significance was the finding that net O3 production prevailed even at boundary layer and lower free tropospheric altitudes (e.g., less than 4 km), a condition uncommon to Pacific marine environments. These results reflect the strong impact of continental Outflow of O3 precursors (e.g., NO and NMHCS) into the northwestern Pacific Basin. Comparisons with PEM-West A, which sampled the same region in a different season (September-October), revealed major differences at altitudes below 4 km, the altitude range most influenced by continental outflow. The resulting net rate of increase in the tropospheric O3 column for PEM-West B was 1-3 % per day, while for PEM-West A it was approximately zero. Unique to the PEM-West B study is the finding that even under wintertime conditions substantial column production of tropospheric O3 can occur at subtropical and mid-latitudes. While such impacts may not be totally unexpected at near coast locations, the present study suggests that the impact from continental outflow on the marine BL could extend out to distances of more

  14. Impact of ENSO events on the interannual variability of Hadley circulation extents in boreal winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Peng Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The interannual variability of the boreal winter Hadley circulation extents during the period of 1979–2014 and its links to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO were investigated by using reanalysis datasets. Results showed that the El Niño (La Niña events can induce the shrinking (expansion of Hadley circulation extent in the Southern Hemisphere. For the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño (La Niña mainly leads to shrinking (expansion of the Hadley circulation extent in the middle and lower troposphere and expansion (shrinking of the Hadley circulation extent in the upper troposphere. The ENSO associated meridional temperature gradients have close relationship with the Hadley circulation extents in both Hemispheres. But in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO associated eddy momentum flux divergence plays more important role in affecting the Hadley circulation extent than the meridional temperature gradient because of the small local Rossby number. In the Southern Hemisphere, as the ENSO induced eddy momentum flux divergence is small, the meridional temperature gradient dominates the change of the Hadley circulation extent.

  15. Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Rodríguez-Puebla

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

  16. On the statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere in winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Graf, H.F.

    1994-01-01

    The associated anomaly patterns of the stratospheric geopotential height field and the tropospheric geopotential and temperature height fields of the northern hemisphere are determined applying the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). With this linear multivariate technique the coupled modes of variability of time series of two fields are isolated in the EOF space. The one data set is the 50 hPa geopotential field, the other set consists of different height fields of the tropospheric pressure levels (200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa) and the temperature of the 850 hPa pressure level. For the winter months (December, January, February) two natural coupled modes, a barotropic and a baroclinic one, of linear relationship between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are found. The baroclinic mode describes a connection between the strength of the stratospheric cyclonic winter vortex and the tropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The corresponding temperature pattern for an anomalously strong stratospheric cyclonic vortex is characterized by positive temperature anomalies over higher latitudes of Eurasia. These 'Winter Warmings' are observed e.g. after violent volcanic eruptions. The barotropic mode is characterized by a zonal wave number one in the lower stratosphere and by a PNA-like pattern in the troposphere. It was shown by Labitzke and van Loon (1987) that this mode can be enhanced e.g. by El Ninos via the intensification of the Aleutian low. (orig.)

  17. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handorf

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of the Arctic atmosphere to low and high sea ice concentration phases based on European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim atmospheric data and Hadley Centre's sea ice dataset (HadISST1 from 1989 until 2010 has been studied. Time slices of winter atmospheric circulation with high (1990–2000 and low (2001–2010 sea ice concentration in the preceding August/September have been analysed with respect to tropospheric interactions between planetary and baroclinic waves. It is shown that a changed sea ice concentration over the Arctic Ocean impacts differently the development of synoptic and planetary atmospheric circulation systems. During the low ice phase, stronger heat release to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean reduces the atmospheric vertical static stability. This leads to an earlier onset of baroclinic instability that further modulates the non-linear interactions between baroclinic wave energy fluxes on time scales of 2.5–6 d and planetary scales of 10–90 d. Our analysis suggests that Arctic sea ice concentration changes exert a remote impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation during winter, exhibiting a barotropic structure with similar patterns of pressure anomalies at the surface and in the mid-troposphere. These are connected to pronounced planetary wave train changes notably over the North Pacific.

  18. Why was Atmospheric Circulation Decoupled from Tropical Pacific SSTs in 2014/15 winter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, P.

    2015-12-01

    In late 2014 and early 2015, although Niño3.4 index exceeded the threshold for a weak-moderate El Niño, a canonical atmospheric response to ENSO event was not observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. In an effort to understand why it was so, this study decomposed the DJF mean sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation rate and 200hPa stream function anomalies observed in the 2014/15 winter into the patterns related to the principal components of the DJF SST variability. It is found that the anomalies of these variables were mainly determined by the patterns related to two SST modes, one is the North Pacific Mode (NPM), and the other the El Niño and South Oscillation (ENSO) mode. The NPM was the dominant factor and was responsible for the apparent uncoupled air-sea relationship in the central equatorial Pacific and the east-west structure of the circulation anomalies over North America. The ENSO mode was important for SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and for the circulation in the central equatorial Pacific. Further, ENSO signal likely evolved from the NPM pattern in the 2013/14 winter, however, its full development was impeded by the unusual persistence of the strong NPM throughout the year. The analysis for DJF 2014/15 winter indicates that the SST anomalies in Niño3.4 alone were not adequate for capturing the coupling of ocean and atmosphere anomalies in the tropical Pacific, due to the fact that it can't distinguish if the SST anomaly in the Niño3.4 region is associated with the ENSO mode or NPM, or both.

  19. Southern Hemisphere circulation signals in connection with winter rainfall forecasting in central Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutlant, J.; Aceituno, P.

    1991-05-01

    The possibility of detecting easterly propagating low frequency signals in the Southern Hemispheric circulation is explored in connection with the assessment of a possible seasonal rainfall forecast in central Chile. The analysis has focused on the seasonal variability associated with the biennial component of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and on the one resulting from superimposed intraseasonal oscillations, in relation with winter precipitation and individual rainfall events, respectively. Based on a previous work, relating wet winters to frequent blocks to the SW of South America during warm events of the SO, time-longitude cross sections of a 5-day average blocking index (BI) calculated from ECMWF 200 hPa daily hemispheric analyses for the period 1980-1987 are presented. A general eastward displacement of western and central Pacific positive BI areas seems to characterize the developing phase of warm SO events and vice versa, while intraseasonal variability patterns appear to be related to single rainstorms, either when the positive BI phase of the wave amplifies while crossing the western Pacific or when it reaches the far southeastern Pacific, frequently with a double block structure. It is concluded that the behaviour of both sources of variability is consistent with previously described teleconnection patterns for ENSO events in the southern winter, and that a primary prospect for winter precipitation and for the occurrence of relatively large individual rainstorms in central Chile could be obtained following the filtered BI and 500 hPa height anomalies in both time scales during the fall season. (author). 28 refs, 12 figs

  20. On the influence of zonal gravity wave distributions on the Southern Hemisphere winter circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Lilienthal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A mechanistic global circulation model is used to simulate the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric, mesospheric, and lower thermospheric circulation during austral winter. The model includes a gravity wave (GW parameterization that is initiated by prescribed 2-D fields of GW parameters in the troposphere. These are based on observations of GW potential energy calculated using GPS radio occultations and show enhanced GW activity east of the Andes and around the Antarctic. In order to detect the influence of an observation-based and thus realistic 2-D GW distribution on the middle atmosphere circulation, we perform model experiments with zonal mean and 2-D GW initialization, and additionally with and without forcing of stationary planetary waves (SPWs at the lower boundary of the model. As a result, we find additional forcing of SPWs in the stratosphere, a weaker zonal wind jet in the mesosphere, cooling of the mesosphere and warming near the mesopause above the jet. SPW wavenumber 1 (SPW1 amplitudes are generally increased by about 10 % when GWs are introduced being longitudinally dependent. However, at the upper part of the zonal wind jet, SPW1 in zonal wind and GW acceleration are out of phase, which reduces the amplitudes there.

  1. Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

    2017-12-01

    For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

  2. Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royé, D.; Taboada, J. J.; Martí, A.; Lorenzo, M. N.

    2016-04-01

    The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.

  3. Seasonal Ozone Variations in the Isentropic Layer between 330 and 380 K as Observed by SAGE 2: Implications of Extratropical Cross-Tropopause Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pi-Huan; Cunnold, Derek M.; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Olson, Jennifer R.; Kent, Geoffrey S.; Skeens, Kristi, M.

    1998-01-01

    To provide observational evidence on the extratropical cross-tropopause transport between the stratosphere and the troposphere via quasi-isentropic processes in the middleworld (the part of the atmosphere in which the isentropic surfaces intersect the tropopause), this report presents an analysis of the seasonal variations of the ozone latitudinal distribution in the isentropic layer between 330 K and 380 K based on the measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II. The results from SAGE II data analysis are consistent with (1) the buildup of ozone-rich air in the extratropical middleworld through the large-scale descending mass circulation during winter, (2) the spread of ozone-rich air in the isentropic layer from midlatitudes to subtropics via quasi-isentropic transport during spring, (3) significant photochemical ozone removal and the absence of an ozone-rich supply of air to the layer during summer, and (4) air mass exchange between the subtropics and the extratropics during the summer monsoon period. Thus the SAGE II observed ozone seasonal variations in the middleworld are consistent with the existing model calculated annual cycle of the diabatic circulation as well as the conceptual role of the eddy quasi-adiabatic transport in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange reported in the literature.

  4. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

    2010-05-01

    We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

  5. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Toreti

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

  6. Possible influence of atmospheric circulations on winter haze pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the daily records derived from the synoptic weather stations and the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the variability of the winter haze pollution (indicated by the mean visibility and number of hazy days in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH region during the period 1981 to 2015 and its relationship with the atmospheric circulations at middle–high latitude were analyzed in this study. The winter haze pollution in BTH had distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities without a significant long-term trend. According to the spatial distribution of correlation coefficients, six atmospheric circulation indices (I1 to I6 were defined from the key areas in sea level pressure (SLP, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (U850, V850, geopotential height field at 500 hPa (H500, zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200, and air temperature at 200 hPa (T200, respectively. All of the six indices have significant and stable correlations with the winter visibility and number of hazy days in BTH. In the raw (unfiltered correlations, the correlation coefficients between the six indices and the winter visibility (number of hazy days varied from 0.57 (0.47 to 0.76 (0.6 with an average of 0.65 (0.54; in the high-frequency ( < 10 years correlations, the coefficients varied from 0.62 (0.58 to 0.8 (0.69 with an average of 0.69 (0.64. The six circulation indices together can explain 77.7 % (78.7 % and 61.7 % (69.1 % variances of the winter visibility and the number of hazy days in the year-to-year (inter-annual variability, respectively. The increase in Ic (a comprehensive index derived from the six individual circulation indices can cause a shallowing of the East Asian trough at the middle troposphere and a weakening of the Siberian high-pressure field at sea level, and is then accompanied by a reduction (increase of horizontal advection and vertical convection (relative humidity in the lowest troposphere and a reduced boundary layer

  7. Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

    2018-03-01

    The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

  8. Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Dobricic, Srdan; Russo, Simone; Vignati, Elisabetta

    2017-10-01

    Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades may be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statistical algorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated with increasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that two atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to a pattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomaly over the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has a smaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

  9. Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari

    2013-04-01

    Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5 Nagio Hirota1,2 and Yukari N. Takayabu2 (1) National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) (2) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP(V2.2), CMAP(V0911), daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE. Surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, and atmospheric circulations are also compared with observations of CRU-UEA, CERES, and ERA-interim/ERA40/JRA reanalysis data. It is shown that many CMIP5 models underestimate and overestimate summer precipitation over West and East Eurasia, respectively. These precipitation biases correspond to moisture transport associated with a cyclonic circulation bias over the whole continent of Eurasia. Meanwhile, many models underestimate cloud over the Eurasian continent, and associated shortwave cloud radiative forcing result in a significant warm bias. Evaporation feedback amplify the warm bias over West Eurasia. These processes consistently explain the precipitation biases over the Erasian continent in summer. We also examined reproducibility of winter precipitation, but robust results are not obtained yet due to the large uncertainty in observation associated with the adjustment of snow measurement in windy condition. Better observational data sets are necessary for further model validation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the PMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  10. Statistical Relationship between the Atmospheric River and Extratropical Cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Y.; Shinoda, T.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    An atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. Previous studies have suggested close relationship between the atmospheric river and the warm conveyor belt of an extratropical cyclone. In this study, the relation between the atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones were explored statistically using datasets of the objectively identified atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone for 36 years (1979-2014). A composite map of sea level pressure with respect to the centroid of the atmospheric rivers and the center of the cyclones reveals that the atmospheric rivers are companied by cyclones and located within the warm conveyor belt of the cyclones, which is consistent with previous studies. Thecomposite map also shows an anticyclone at the equatorial flank of the cyclone, in contrast to the composite map with respect to the center of the cyclones only, in which the anticyclone is not evident. This suggests that the presence of the cyclone alone is not the sufficient condition for the occurrence of the atmospheric river. The accompanied anticyclonic circulation at the equatorial side of the cyclone that generates strong pressure gradient and narrow band of enhanced water vapor transport is a key factor for the occurrence of the atmospheric river. Other statistical relations between the atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones will also be discussed.

  11. An A-Train Climatology of Extratropical Cyclone Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Kahn, Brian; Bauer, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the main purveyors of precipitation in the mid-latitudes, especially in winter, and have a significant radiative impact through the clouds they generate. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have trouble representing precipitation and clouds in ETCs, and this might partly explain why current GCMs disagree on to the evolution of these systems in a warming climate. Collectively, the A-train observations of MODIS, CloudSat, CALIPSO, AIRS and AMSR-E have given us a unique perspective on ETCs: over the past 10 years these observations have allowed us to construct a climatology of clouds and precipitation associated with these storms. This has proved very useful for model evaluation as well in studies aimed at improving understanding of moist processes in these dynamically active conditions. Using the A-train observational suite and an objective cyclone and front identification algorithm we have constructed cyclone centric datasets that consist of an observation-based characterization of clouds and precipitation in ETCs and their sensitivity to large scale environments. In this presentation, we will summarize the advances in our knowledge of the climatological properties of cloud and precipitation in ETCs acquired with this unique dataset. In particular, we will present what we have learned about southern ocean ETCs, for which the A-train observations have filled a gap in this data sparse region. In addition, CloudSat and CALIPSO have for the first time provided information on the vertical distribution of clouds in ETCs and across warm and cold fronts. We will also discuss how these observations have helped identify key areas for improvement in moist processes in recent GCMs. Recently, we have begun to explore the interaction between aerosol and cloud cover in ETCs using MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO. We will show how aerosols are climatologically distributed within northern hemisphere ETCs, and how this relates to cloud cover.

  12. The role of the winter residual circulation in the summer mesopause regions in WACCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanne Kuilman, Maartje; Karlsson, Bodil

    2018-03-01

    High winter planetary wave activity warms the summer polar mesopause via a link between the two hemispheres. Complex wave-mean-flow interactions take place on a global scale, involving sharpening and weakening of the summer zonal flow. Changes in the wind shear occasionally generate flow instabilities. Additionally, an altering zonal wind modifies the breaking of vertically propagating gravity waves. A crucial component for changes in the summer zonal flow is the equatorial temperature, as it modifies latitudinal gradients. Since several mechanisms drive variability in the summer zonal flow, it can be hard to distinguish which one is dominant. In the mechanism coined interhemispheric coupling, the mesospheric zonal flow is suggested to be a key player for how the summer polar mesosphere responds to planetary wave activity in the winter hemisphere. We here use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate the role of the summer stratosphere in shaping the conditions of the summer polar mesosphere. Using composite analyses, we show that in the absence of an anomalous summer mesospheric temperature gradient between the equator and the polar region, weak planetary wave forcing in the winter would lead to a warming of the summer mesosphere region instead of a cooling, and vice versa. This is opposing the temperature signal of the interhemispheric coupling that takes place in the mesosphere, in which a cold and calm winter stratosphere goes together with a cold summer mesopause. We hereby strengthen the evidence that the variability in the summer mesopause region is mainly driven by changes in the summer mesosphere rather than in the summer stratosphere.

  13. Circulation and distribution of some hydrographical properties during the late winter in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, D.P.; Sastry, J.S.

    of India. The integral mean concentration of nutrients in the surface mixed layer is in consonance with the near surface circulation in such a way that its higher (lower) value along with the lower (high) value of dissolved oxygen is associated with less...

  14. Classifications of Winter Euro-Atlantic Circulation Patterns: An Intercomparison of Five Atmospheric Reanalyses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stryhal, J.; Huth, Radan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 19 (2017), s. 7847-7861 ISSN 0894-8755 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * climate models * Europe * model evaluation/performance * reanalysis data Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.161, year: 2016 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0059.1

  15. Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

  16. A-Train Based Observational Metrics for Model Evaluation in Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Catherine M.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Posselt, Derek J.

    2015-01-01

    Extratropical cyclones contribute most of the precipitation in the midlatitudes, i.e. up to 70 during winter in the northern hemisphere, and can generate flooding, extreme winds, blizzards and have large socio-economic impacts. As such, it is important that general circulation models (GCMs) accurately represent these systems so their evolution in a warming climate can be understood. However, there are still uncertainties on whether warming will increase their frequency of occurrence, their intensity and how much rain or snow they bring. Part of the issue is that models have trouble representing their strength, but models also have biases in the amount of clouds and precipitation they produce. This is caused by potential issues in various aspects of the models: convection, boundary layer, and cloud scheme to only mention a few. In order to pinpoint which aspects of the models need improvement for a better representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and cloudiness, we will present A-train based observational metrics: cyclone-centered, warm and cold frontal composites of cloud amount and type, precipitation rate and frequency of occurrence. Using the same method to extract similar fields from the model, we will present an evaluation of the GISS-ModelE2 and the IPSL-LMDZ-5B models, based on their AR5 and more recent versions. The AR5 version of the GISS model underestimates cloud cover in extratropical cyclones while the IPSL AR5 version overestimates it. In addition, we will show how the observed CloudSat-CALIPSO cloud vertical distribution across cold fronts changes with moisture amount and cyclone strength, and test if the two models successfully represent these changes. We will also show how CloudSat-CALIPSO derived cloud type (i.e. convective vs. stratiform) evolves across warm fronts as cyclones age, and again how this is represented in the models. Our third process-based analysis concerns cumulus clouds in the post-cold frontal region and how their

  17. Rotational atmospheric circulation during North Atlantic-European winter: the influence of ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Serrano, J. [UCM, Departamento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Zurita-Gotor, P.; Camara, A. de la [UCM, Departamento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Blade, I. [UB, Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Barcelona (Spain)

    2011-11-15

    The dominant variability modes of the North Atlantic-European rotational flow are examined by applying a principal component analysis (PCA/EOF) to the 200 hPa streamfunction mid-winter anomalies (Jan-Feb monthly means). The results reveal that, when this norm is used, the leading mode (EOF1) does not correspond to the traditional North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, which appears in our analysis as the second leading mode, EOF2) but is the local manifestation of the leading hemispheric streamfunction EOF. The regression of this regional mode onto the global SST field exhibits a clear El Nino signature, with no signal over the Atlantic, while the associated upper height anomalies resemble the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern. East of North America, this TNH-like wavetrain produces a meridional dipole-like pattern at lower levels. Although in some ways this pattern resembles the NAO (EOF2), the dynamics of these two modes are very different in that only EOF2 is associated with a latitudinal shift of the North Atlantic stormtrack. Thus, the choice of the streamfunction norm in the EOF analysis allows the separation of two different phenomena that can produce similar dipolar surface pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic but that have different impact on European climate. These two modes also differ on their contribution to variability at lower levels: while NAO-EOF2 is mostly confined to the North Atlantic, TNH-EOF1 has a more annular, global character. At upper levels NAO-EOF2 also produces a global pattern but with no annular structure, reminiscent of the ''circumglobal'' teleconnection. (orig.)

  18. Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

  19. The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharin, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

  20. Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne; Methven, John

    2016-04-01

    Two contrasting extratropical cyclones were observed over the United Kingdom during the summer 2012 field campaign of the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExtraTropical storms) project. The first cyclone, observed in July, was a shallow system typical of summer over west Europe while the second cyclone, observed in August, was a much deeper system which developed a potential vorticity (PV) tower. The evolution of these two cyclones was analysed and compared in terms of diabatic effects with respect to two aspects. The first aspect is the amount and distribution of heat produced during the development of each cyclone, measured by the cross-isentropic motion around the cyclone centre. The second aspect is the modification to the circulation around the cyclones' centres, measured by area-averaged isentropic vorticity. The contributions from individual diabatic processes, such as convection, cloud microphysics and radiation, to these two aspects is also considered. The cyclones were analysed via hindcast simulations with a research version of the Met Office Unified Model, enhanced with on-line tracers of diabatic changes of potential temperature and PV. A new methodology for the interpretation of these tracers was also implemented and used. The hindcast simulations were compared with the available dropsonde observations from the field campaign as well as operational analyses and radar rainfall rates. It is shown that, while boundary layer and turbulent mixing processes and cloud microphysics processes contributed to the development of both cyclones, the main differences between the cyclones in terms of diabatic effects could be attributed to differences in convective activity. It is also shown that the contribution from all these diabatic processes to changes in the circulation was modulated by the characteristics of advection around each cyclone in a highly nonlinear fashion. This research establishes a new framework for a systematic comparison

  1. Tropical-Extratropical Exchange Based on Argo Profiles and Ship-Based Observations Near the Western Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, D.; Li, B.; Yang, L.

    2014-12-01

    The tropical-extratropical exchange in the northwestern Pacific Ocean is studied using the absolute geostrophic currents based on Argo Profiles and the observations of the western boundary currents (WBCs) during two cruises in the winters of 2010 and 2012. The absolute geostrophic currents are calculated using the P-vector method for the period of 2004 through 2011. The transport of the geostrophic currents is compared with the Sverdrup theory and found to differ significantly in several locations. Analyses have shown that errors of wind stress estimation cannot account for all of the differences. The largest differences are found in the area, where nonlinear activities are vigorous. It is, therefore, suggested that the linear dynamics of the Sverdrup theory is deficient in explaining the geostrophic transport of the tropical northwestern Pacific Ocean. Previous studies suggest recharge and discharge of the tropical Pacific Ocean heat content through the interior circulation of the North Pacific Ocean, based on the Sverdrup theory, and that the WBCs play the role opposite to the interior ocean recharge and discharge anomalies. Using ocean observations from two cruises in a La Niña winter and a normal winter, it is suggested that the Kuroshio transport decreases significantly and the Mindanao Current transport increases significantly at the peak of 2010 La Niña, opposite to the prediction of existing theory. The anomalies of the western boundary current transport are found much larger than those of the meridional circulation in the entire interior of the North Pacific Ocean, the dynamics of which are suggested to be associated with the Kelvin wave propagation around the Philippine islands. The results suggest that the WBCs dominate the interannual recharge and discharge of the western Pacific warm pool during the 2010 La Niña.

  2. Observational Diagnoses of Extratropical Ozone STE During the Aura Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Douglass, Anne R.; Witte, Jacquie C.; Kaplan, Trevor B.

    2011-01-01

    The transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the extratropical troposphere is an important boundary condition to tropospheric chemistry. However, previous direct estimates from models and indirect estimates from observations have poorly constrained the magnitude of ozone stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). In this study we provide a direct diagnosis of the extratropical ozone STE using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on Aura and output of the MERRA reanalysis over the time period from 2005 to the present. We find that the mean annual STE is about 275 Tg/yr and 205 Tg/yr in the NH and SH, respectively. The interannual variability of the magnitude is about twice as great in the NH than the SH. We find that this variability is dominated by the seasonal variability during the late winter and spring. A comparison of the ozone flux to the mass flux reveals that there is not a simple relationship between the two quantities. This presentation will also examine the magnitude and distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere relative to the years of maximum and minimum ozone STE. Finally, we will examine any possible signature of increased ozone STE in the troposphere using sonde and tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data, and output from the Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM).

  3. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, T.G. [ed.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop`s University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database.

  4. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, T.G.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database

  5. Thermohaline circulation in the Central Indian Ocean Basin (CIB) during austral summer and winter periods of 1997

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Suryanarayana, A.; Murty, V.S.N.

    -79 degrees E; 9 degrees-14 degrees S) during austral summer (January 1997) from the Indian research vessel ORV Sagar Kanya, while during the austral winter season (June-July 1997), hydrographical stations were occupied by Russian research vessel RV...

  6. Stratospheric influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzeau, Gaelle; Douville, Herve; Saint Martin, David

    2010-05-01

    Despite significant improvements in observing and data assimilation systems, long-range dynamical forecasting remains a difficult challenge for the climate modelling community. The skill of operational seasonal forecasting systems is particularly poor in the northern extratropics where seas surface temperature (SST) has a weaker influence than in the Tropics. It is therefore relevant to look for additional potential sources of long-range climate predictability in the stratosphere using ensembles of global atmospheric simulations. Besides a control experiment where the ARPEGE-Climat model is only driven by SST, parallel simulations have been performed in which an additional control on climate variability has been accounted for through the nudging of the northern extratropical stratosphere towards the ERA40 reanalysis. Though idealized, this original experiment design allows us to compare the relative contribution of the lower and upper boundary forcings on the simulated tropospheric variability. Results show that the stratospheric nudging improves the climatology and interannual variability of the mid-latitude troposphere, especially in winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Major impacts are found in particular on the simulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations (AO and NAO). Case studies were carried out for the 1976-1977 and 1988-1989 winters, corresponding to extreme phases of the AO. Results confirm the robustness of the positive impact of the nudging, especially for winter 1976-1977 corresponding to relatively weak SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A sensitivity study to the model resolution shows that a well-resolved stratosphere is not necessary for the nudging to be efficient. Besides seasonal mean results, analysis of the day-to-day variability in winter allowed us to better understand the stratospheric polar vortex influence on the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

  7. 2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

    2013-12-01

    On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For

  8. Estuarine circulation reversals and related rapid changes in winter near-bottom oxygen conditions in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Liblik

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The reversal of estuarine circulation caused by southwesterly wind forcing may lead to vanishing of stratification and subsequently to oxygenation of deep layers during the winter in the Gulf of Finland. Six conductivity, temperature, depth (CTD+oxygen transects (130 km long, 10 stations were conducted along the thalweg from the western boundary to the central gulf (21 December 2011–8 May 2012. Two bottom-mounted ADCP were installed, one near the western border and the second in the central gulf. A CTD with a dissolved oxygen sensor was deployed close to the western ADCP. Periods of typical estuarine circulation were characterized by strong stratification, high salinity, hypoxic conditions and inflow to the gulf in the near-bottom layer. Two circulation reversals were observed: one in December–January and one in February. The first reversal event was well developed; it caused the disappearance of the stratification and an increase in the oxygen concentration from hypoxic values to 270 μmol L−1 (to 6 mL L−1 throughout the water column along the thalweg and lasted approximately 1.5 months. Shifts from estuarine circulation to reversed circulation and vice versa were both associated with strong longitudinal (east–west gulf currents (up to 40 cm s−1 in the deep layer. The change from oxygenated to hypoxic conditions in the western near-entrance area of the gulf occurred very rapidly, within less than a day, due to the intrusion of the hypoxic salt wedge from the NE Baltic Proper. In the eastern part of the gulf, good oxygen conditions caused by reversals remained for a few months.

  9. Tropical to extratropical: Marine environmental changes associated with Superstorm Sandy prior to its landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

    2014-12-01

    Superstorm Sandy was a massive storm that impacted the U.S. East Coast on 22-31 October 2012, generating large waves, record storm surges, and major damage. The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system was applied to hindcast this storm. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity of air-sea-wave coupling were used to depict characteristics of this immense storm as it underwent tropical to extratropical transition. Regardless of coupling complexity, model-simulated tracks were all similar to the observations, suggesting the storm track was largely determined by large-scale synoptic atmospheric circulation, rather than by local processes resolved through model coupling. Analyses of the sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, and upper atmospheric shear parameters showed that as a result of the extratropical transition and despite the storm encountering much cooler shelf water, its intensity and strength were not significantly impacted. Ocean coupling was not as important as originally thought for Sandy.

  10. Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, G. W. K.; Schweiger, A.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

    2018-03-01

    The winter Arctic atmosphere is under the influence of two very different circulation systems: extratropical cyclones travel along the primary North Atlantic storm track from Iceland toward the eastern Arctic, while the western Arctic is characterized by a quasi-stationary region of high pressure known as the Beaufort High. The winter (January through March) of 2017 featured an anomalous reversal of the normally anticyclonic surface winds and sea ice motion in the western Arctic. This reversal can be traced to a collapse of the Beaufort High as the result of the intrusion of low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic, along the East Siberian Coast, into the Arctic Basin. Thin sea ice as the result of an extremely warm autumn (October through December) of 2016 contributed to the formation of an anomalous thermal low over the Barents Sea that, along with a northward shift of the tropospheric polar vortex, permitted this intrusion. The collapse of the Beaufort High during the winter of 2017 was associated with simultaneous 2-sigma sea level pressure, surface wind, and sea ice circulation anomalies in the western Arctic. As the Arctic sea ice continues to thin, such reversals may become more common and impact ocean circulation, sea ice, and biology.

  11. Transport timescales and tracer properties in the extratropical UTLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoor, P.; Wernli, H.; Hegglin, M. I.

    2010-05-01

    A comprehensive evaluation of seasonal backward trajectories initialized in the Northern Hemisphere lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has been performed to investigate the origin of air parcels and the main mechanisms determining characteristic structures in H2O and CO within the LMS. In particular we explain the fundamental role of the transit time since last tropopause crossing (tTST) for the chemical structure of the LMS as well as the feature of the extra-tropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) as identified from CO profiles. The distribution of H2O in the background LMS above Θ=320 K and 340 K in northern winter and summer, respectively, is found to be governed mainly by the saturation mixing ratio, which in turn is determined by the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP) encountered by each trajectory. Most of the backward trajectories from this region in the LMS experienced their LCP in the tropics and sub-tropics. The transit time since crossing the tropopause from the troposphere to the stratosphere (tTST) is independent of the H2O value of the air parcel. TST often occurs 20 days after trajectories have encountered their LCP. CO, on the other hand, depends strongly on tTST due to its finite lifetime. The ExTL as identified from CO measurements is then explained as a layer of air just above the tropopause, which on average encountered TST fairly recently.

  12. Interannual Variability of Regional Hadley Circulation Intensity Over Western Pacific During Boreal Winter and Its Climatic Impact Over Asia-Australia Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.

  13. Response of the extratropical middle atmosphere to the September 2002 major stratospheric sudden warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guharay, A.; Batista, P. P.; Clemesha, B. R.; Sarkhel, S.

    2014-01-01

    The effects of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) at extratropical latitudes have been investigated with wind and temperature observations over a Brazilian station, Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45°W) during September-October 2002. In response to the warming at polar latitudes a corresponding cooling at tropical and extratropical latitudes is prominent in the stratosphere. A conspicuous signature of latitudinal propagation of a planetary wave of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2 from polar to low latitude has been observed during the warming period. The polar vortex which split into two parts of different size is found to travel considerably low latitude. Significant air mass mixing between low and high latitudes is caused by planetary wave breaking. The meridional wind exhibits oscillations of period 2-4 days during the warming period in the stratosphere. No wave feature is evident in the mesosphere during the warming period, although a 12-14 day periodicity is observed after 2 weeks of the warming event, indicating close resemblance to the results of other simultaneous investigations carried out from high latitude Antarctic stations. Convective activity over the present extratropical station diminishes remarkably during the warming period. This behavior is possibly due to destabilization and shift of equatorial convective active regions towards the opposite hemisphere in response to changes in the mean meridional circulation in concert with the SSW.

  14. The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

  15. Data denial experiments for extratropical transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doris Anwender

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Data denial experiments using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF model are designed to investigate the value of targeted observations for historical extratropical transition (ET cases over the Atlantic. The impact of removing data from specified locations linked to the ET development is therefore examined. It is shown that the impact of denying data in the near tropical cyclone (TC environment is, on average, as important as denying data in mid-latitude sensitive regions determined using extratropical singular vectors (SV. The impact of data denial over TC regions propagates downstream from the Atlantic towards Europe, with a maximum degradation at day 4. This degradation is mainly attributed to the data denial at the TC stage, i.e. before ET is completed. When data are denied on mid-latitude sensitive regions, the largest degradation is found around day 2 and also after the day 4 forecast. In general, the loss of information content is larger when data are denied in mid-latitude sensitive areas because these identify dynamically active regions. In both denial experiments, aircraft and satellite radiance data are the most influential observations. For the selected case of Hurricane Irene, the largest degradations are found for forecasts initialised while Irene reached its peak intensity. If observations are denied in the near storm environment, the TC mostly disappears from the analysis and the subsequent forecast. This allows the impact of Irene on the formation of the downstream cut-off low to be investigated.

  16. Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power

  17. Control of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone by extratropical thermal forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

    2017-03-01

    The response of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) to an extratropical thermal forcing is investigated in a series of simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Three sets of experiments are performed, varying the extratropical forcing. In the first the forcing consists of warming of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and cooling of the Southern Hemisphere, with zero global average. In the second and third experiments, the former forcing is divided into its northern and southern components to asses their relative roles in affecting the SACZ. In all the cases realistic surface boundary conditions are implemented. We found that during its peak in austral summer the SACZ weakens in response to the extratropical forcing and that such weakening is mostly due to the NH component of the forcing. We found that 75% of the SACZ signal in response to the forcing is linked to the generation of a secondary tropical convergence zone in the Atlantic Ocean around 20°N-30°N, which generates an anomalous Hadley circulation with subsidence over the SACZ. This mechanism appears to be dependent on the upper level changes and tropical ocean response, as it weakens significantly when the simulation is repeated not allowing the tropical sea surface temperatures to change in response to the forcing. The remaining 25% of the signal can be explained through the development of a Walker-type of circulation between western tropical Africa and the SACZ, being this mechanism dependent on the African land surface temperature reaction to the remote forcing.

  18. Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

  19. Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

  20. Utilization of satellite cloud information to diagnose the energy state and transformations in extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. J.

    1985-01-01

    An important component of the research was a continuing investigation of the impact of latent release on extratropical cyclone development. Previous efforts to accomplish this task have focused on the energy balance and the vertical motion field of an intense winter extratropical cyclone over the United States. During this fiscal year researchers turned their attention to a more fundamental diagnostic variable, the height tendency. Central to this effort is the use of a modified form of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation, in which geostrophic wind components have been replaced by observed winds and a latent heat release term has been added. This methodology was adopted to produce a simple diagnostic model which retains the essential mechanisms of quasi-geostrophic theory but more faithfully describes observed wave development when the Rossby Number approaches and exceeds 0.5. Results to date indicate that the new model yields height tendencies that are superior to those obtained from the quasi-geostrophic formulation and are sufficiently close to the observed tendencies to be a useful tool for diagnosing the principle large-scale forcing mechanisms in th e700-300 mb layer. Of the three forcing terms included in the new model, vortity advection is in general dominant. The most persistent challenge to this dominance is made by the thermal advection. On the whole, latent heat release plays a secondary role. Finally, during the rapid intensification observed for this cyclone, all three processes complement each other in forcing height falls.

  1. Large-scale factors in tropical and extratropical cyclone transition and extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian

    2008-12-01

    Transition mechanisms characterizing changes from hurricanes to midlatitude cyclones and vice-versa (extratropical and tropical transition) have become a topic of increasing interest, partially because of their association with recent unusual storms that have developed in different ocean basins of both hemispheres. The aim of this work is to discuss some recent cases of transition and highly unusual hurricane developments and to address some of their wider implications for climate science. Frequently those dramatic cyclones are responsible for severe weather, potentially causing significant damage to property and infrastructure. An additional manifestation discussed here is their association with cold surges, a topic that has been very little explored in the literature. In the Southern Hemisphere, the first South Atlantic hurricane, Catarina, developed in March 2004 under very unusual large-scale conditions. That exceptional cyclone is viewed as a case of tropical transition facilitated by a well-developed blocking structure. A new index for monitoring tropical transition in the subtropical South Atlantic is discussed. This "South Atlantic index" is used to show that the unusual flow during and prior to Catarina's genesis can be attributed to tropical/extratropical interaction mechanisms. The "Donald Duck" case in Australia and Vince in the North Atlantic have also been examined and shown to belong to a category of hybrid-transitioning systems that will achieve at least partial tropical transition. While clearly more research is needed on the topic of transition, as we gain further insight, it is becoming increasingly apparent that features of large-scale circulation do play a fundamental role. A complex interaction between an extratropical transition case and an extreme summer cold surge affecting southeastern Australia is discussed as an example of wider climate implications.

  2. Recent Intensified Winter Coldness in the Mid-High Latitudes of Eurasia and Its Relationship with Daily Extreme Low Temperature Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuhan Lu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Observational records in recent decades show a large-scale decrease in the cold-season temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes under continuous global warming. However, severe low temperature events in winter frequently occurred in midlatitude Eurasia (MEA in the last decade. Here, we define a new coldness intensity (CI index for the near-surface based on the amplitude of daily anomalously cold temperatures in winter to demonstrate the CI of the variability of low temperature extremes. The results show that a sign-consistent mode dominates the CI variation in MEA, with a marked intensification during the last decade via empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. This leading mode is significantly related to the frequency of winter extreme events. The associated circulations are characterized by a remarkable anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Eurasia, which induced substantial cold advection in MEA. The widespread intensified CI in MEA is closely linked with strong surface anticyclones and synoptic blocking in the mid-high latitudes (25°E–85°E. Coincidently, positive phase shifts of the first two leading modes of the extratropical circulation, which feature similar blocking-like anomalies in the northwestern Eurasian subarctic, jointly play an important role in the recent frequency of severe winters.

  3. Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

    (2018) ISSN 0930-7575 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Global climate models * Projections * CMIP5 * Circulation classifications * Atmospheric circulation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.146, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3

  4. The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 2: A link mediated by auroral atmospheric gravity waves?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Prikryl

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Cases of mesoscale cloud bands in extratropical cyclones are observed a few hours after atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs are launched from the auroral ionosphere. It is suggested that the solar-wind-generated auroral AGWs contribute to processes that release instabilities and initiate slantwise convection thus leading to cloud bands and growth of extratropical cyclones. Also, if the AGWs are ducted to low latitudes, they could influence the development of tropical cyclones. The gravity-wave-induced vertical lift may modulate the slantwise convection by releasing the moist symmetric instability at near-threshold conditions in the warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones. Latent heat release associated with the mesoscale slantwise convection has been linked to explosive cyclogenesis and severe weather. The circumstantial and statistical evidence of the solar wind influence on extratropical cyclones is further supported by a statistical analysis of high-level clouds (<440 mb extracted from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP D1 dataset. A statistically significant response of the high-level cloud area index (HCAI to fast solar wind from coronal holes is found in mid-to-high latitudes during autumn-winter and in low latitudes during spring-summer. In the extratropics, this response of the HCAI to solar wind forcing is consistent with the effect on tropospheric vorticity found by Wilcox et al. (1974 and verified by Prikryl et al. (2009. In the tropics, the observed HCAI response, namely a decrease in HCAI at the arrival of solar wind stream followed by an increase a few days later, is similar to that in the northern and southern mid-to-high latitudes. The amplitude of the response nearly doubles for stream interfaces associated with the interplanetary magnetic field BZ component shifting southward. When the IMF BZ after the stream interface shifts northward, the autumn-winter effect weakens or shifts to lower (mid latitudes

  5. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Levermann, Anders

    2014-08-01

    The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.

  6. Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitson, Bruce

    1994-01-01

    One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

  7. The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawcroft, Matt; Haywood, Jim M.; Collins, Mat; Jones, Andy

    2018-01-01

    The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a coupled climate model, HadGEM2-ES, is used to investigate the response to idealised energy perturbations in the tropics and extratropics, in both the northern and southern hemispheres, through the imposition of stratospheric aerosols that reflect incoming radiation. The impact on the tropical climate of high and low latitude forcing strongly contrasts, with large changes in tropical precipitation and modulation of the DI bias when the tropics are cooled as precipitation moves away from the cooled hemisphere. These responses are muted when the extratropics are cooled, as the meridional energy transport anomalies that are excited by these energy budget anomalies are partitioned between the atmosphere and ocean. The results here highlight the persistence of the DI bias in HadGEM2-ES, indicating why little progress has been made in rectifying these problems through many generations of climate models. A highly linear relationship between cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, tropical precipitation asymmetry and tropical sea surface temperature biases is also demonstrated, giving some suggestion as to where improvements in these large scale, persistent biases may be achieved.

  8. The Climatology of Extreme Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme coastal storms devastate heavily populated areas around the world by producing powerful winds that can create a large storm surge. Both tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) occur over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and the risks associated with ETCs can be just as severe as those associated with tropical storms (e.g. high winds, storm surge). At The Battery in New York City, 17 of the 20 largest storm surge events were a consequence of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which are more prevalent than tropical cyclones in the northeast region of the United States. Therefore, we analyze the climatology of ETCs that are capable of producing a large storm surge along the northeastern coast of the United States. For a historical analysis, water level data was collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges at three separate locations (Sewell's Pt., VA, The Battery, NY, and Boston, MA). We perform a k-means cluster analysis of sea level pressure from the ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis dataset (ERA-20c) to explore the natural sets of observed storms with similar characteristics. We then composite cluster results with features of atmospheric circulation to observe the influence of interannual and multidecadal variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Since observational records contain a small number of well-documented ETCs, the capability of a high-resolution coupled climate model to realistically simulate such extreme coastal storms will also be assessed. Global climate models provide a means of simulating a much larger sample of extreme events, allowing for better resolution of the tail of the distribution. We employ a tracking algorithm to identify ETCs in a multi-century simulation under present-day conditions. Quantitative comparisons of cyclolysis, cyclogenesis, and cyclone densities of simulated ETCs and storms from recent history (using reanalysis products) are conducted.

  9. Rossby wave dynamics of the North Pacific extra-tropical response to El Nino: importance of the basic state in coupled GCMs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Andrew; Stevens, David P. [University of East Anglia, School of Mathematics, Norwich (United Kingdom); Matthews, Adrian J. [University of East Anglia, School of Mathematics, Norwich (United Kingdom); University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2011-07-15

    The extra-tropical response to El Nino in a ''low'' horizontal resolution coupled climate model, typical of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report simulations, is shown to have serious systematic errors. A high resolution configuration of the same model has a much improved response that is similar to observations. The errors in the low resolution model are traced to an incorrect representation of the atmospheric teleconnection mechanism that controls the extra-tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during El Nino. This is due to an unrealistic atmospheric mean state, which changes the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves. These erroneous upper tropospheric circulation anomalies then induce erroneous surface circulation features over the North Pacific. The associated surface wind speed and direction errors create erroneous surface flux and upwelling anomalies which finally lead to the incorrect extra-tropical SST response to El Nino in the low resolution model. This highlights the sensitivity of the climate response to a single link in a chain of complex climatic processes. The correct representation of these processes in the high resolution model indicates the importance of horizontal resolution in resolving such processes. (orig.)

  10. Winter Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Centers Harwood Training Grants Videos E-Tools Winter Storms Plan. Equip. Train To prevent injuries, illnesses and Fatalities during winter storms. This page requires that javascript be enabled ...

  11. Winter MVC

    OpenAIRE

    Castellón Gadea, Pasqual

    2013-01-01

    Winter MVC és un framework de presentació basat en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodologia de configuracions. Winter MVC es un framework de presentación basado en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodología de configuraciones. Winter MVC is a presentation framework that simplifies Spring MVC configuration methodology.

  12. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  13. Southern annular mode: tropical-extratropical interactions and impacts

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Fauchereau, N

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available . ? Altogether ? these ? results? challenge?some?conclusions?of?recent?studies?(Carvalho?et? al,?2005,?Matthews?and?Meredith,?2004)?on?the?impact?of? the?MJO?on?the?SAM?variability.? c.?Relationship?with?the?ENSO? Figure?2:?relationship...?strongest?during?La?Ni?a?years.?We?then?discuss?the? implications?of?these?tropical???extratropical?interactions? on?the?relationships?between?the?SAM?and?the?Southern? Ocean?physics?and?biology. 4.?References Carvalho,?L.M.V.,?C.?Jones,?and?T.?Ambrizzi,?2005:?Op? posite?phases?of? the...

  14. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2018-04-01

    Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.

  15. A Lagrangian Climatology of Tropical Moisture Exports to the Northern Hemispheric Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter; Wernli, Heini

    2010-05-01

    Case studies have shown that heavy precipitation events and rapid cyclogenesis in the extratropics can be fueled by moist and warm tropical air masses. Often the tropical moisture export (TME) occurs through a longitudinally confined region in the subtropics. Here a comprehensive climatological analysis of TME is constructed on the basis of seven-day forward trajectories started daily from the tropical lower troposphere using 6-hourly ERA-40 data from the 23-year period 1979-2001. The objective TME identification procedure retains only those trajectories that reach a water vapor flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 somewhere north of 35°N. The results show four distinct activity maxima with different seasonal behavior: (I) The "pineapple express", which connects tropical moisture sources near Hawaii with precipitation near the North American west coast, has a marked activity maximum in boreal winter. (II) TME over the West Pacific is largest in summer, partly related to the East Asian monsoon and the Meiyu-Baiu front. This region alone is responsible for a large portion of TME across 35°N. (III) The narrow activity maximum over the Great Plains of North America is rooted over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, and has a clear maximum in summer and spring. (IV) TME over the western North Atlantic shows the smallest annual cycle with a maximum in winter and autumn. The interannual variability of (I) and (IV) is significantly modulated by El Niño. Over the African-European-Asian region, high orographic barriers impede TME. A typical TME trajectory evolution is poleward and quasi-horizontal in the subtropics and then more eastward and upward in the southern midlatitudes, where TME contributes up to 60% to climatological precipitation. The TME dataset presented here can serve as a basis for future studies on extreme events.

  16. Extratropical Cyclones over Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: Present and Future Climates projected by RegCM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, Michelle; Rodrigues, Marcelo; da Rocha, Rosmeri

    2017-04-01

    This study shows some of the climatological features of the extratropical cyclones in present and future climate over Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO). The projections were carried out with Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested in HadGEM2-ES global model outputs and using representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the CMIP5. The simulations considered the South America domain suggested by CORDEX, horizontal grid spacing of 50 km, 18 sigma-pressure levels in the vertical. An objective tracking scheme based on cyclonic relative vorticity calculated using the wind at 925 hPa was used to identify the cyclones. All cyclones with relative vorticity lower than the -1.5 x 10-5 s-1 and with lifetime higher or equal 24 hours were included in the climatology. Considering the period from 1979 to 2098, RegCM4 and HadGEM2-ES project a negative trend in the frequency of the extratropical cyclones over SAO, with the biggest negative trend occuring in the latitudinal band between 40°S and 57.5°S. This result can be associated with the southward displacement of the baroclinic zone which contributes to the cyclones move to south leaving the region analyzed. The three subregions with largest cyclogenetic activity discussed in the literature (southeast coast of Brazil - RG1, coast of Uruguay and southern Brazil - RG2; east coast of Argentina - RG3) were better reproduced in RegCM4 than in HadGEM2-ES. Therefore, RegCM4 downscaling ads value in the HadGEM2-ES projections. The frequency of cyclones in present (1979-2005) and future climate (2070-2098) is higher in winter and lower in summer. Regarding the mean characteristics of the cyclones (life time, travel distance, velocity, initial relative vorticity and total average vorticity), both models successfully reproduced those obtained in the reanalysis (NCEP1, NCEP2, CFSR, ERA40 and ERA-Interim) and there are no significant differences in the future climate compared with the present.

  17. Response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Gao, Yannan; Cai, Juan; Guo, Dong; Lu, Yan

    2018-04-01

    The response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter is investigated based on measurements of the solar cycle by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor onboard the SORCE satellite, monthly ERA-Interim Reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the radiative transfer scheme of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-RAD) and a multiple linear regression model. The results show that during periods of strong solar activity, the solar shortwave heating anomaly from the climatology in the tropical upper stratosphere triggers a local warm anomaly and strong westerly winds in mid-latitudes, which strengthens the upward propagation of planetary wave 1 but prevents that of wave 2. The enhanced westerly jet makes a slight adjustment to the propagation path of wave 1, but prevents wave 2 from propagating upward, decreases the dissipation of wave 2 in the extratropical upper stratosphere and hence weakens the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The adiabatic heating term in relation to the Brewer-Dobson circulation shows anomalous warming in the tropical lower stratosphere and anomalous cooling in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere.

  18. Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

    2018-03-01

    Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

  19. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  20. Kinematic vorticity number – a tool for estimating vortex sizes and circulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Schielicke

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The influence of extratropical vortices on a global scale is mainly characterised by their size and by the magnitude of their circulation. However, the determination of these properties is still a great challenge since a vortex has no clear delimitations but is part of the flow field itself. In this work, we introduce a kinematic vortex size determination method based on the kinematic vorticity number Wk to atmospheric flows. Wk relates the local rate-of-rotation to the local rate-of-deformation at every point in the field and a vortex core is identified as a simply connected region where the rotation prevails over the deformation. Additionally, considering the sign of vorticity in the extended Wk-method allows to identify highs and lows in different vertical layers of the atmosphere and to study vertical as well as horizontal vortex interactions. We will test the Wk-method in different idealised -D (superposition of two lows/low and jet and real -D flow situations (winter storm affecting Europe and compare the results with traditional methods based on the pressure and the vorticity fields. In comparison to these traditional methods, the Wk-method is able to extract vortex core sizes even in shear-dominated regions that occur frequently in the upper troposphere. Furthermore, statistics of the size and circulation distributions of cyclones will be given. Since the Wk-method identifies vortex cores, the identified radii are subsynoptic with a broad peak around 300–500 km at the 1000 hPa level. However, the total circulating area is not only restricted to the core. In general, circulations are in the order of 107 m2/s with only a few cyclones in the order of 108 m2/s.

  1. Seasonal variability in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Thomas W. D.; Hammarlund, Dan; Newton, Brandi W.; Sjolte, Jesper; Linderson, Hans; Sturm, Christophe; St. Amour, Natalie A.; Bailey, Joscelyn N.-L.; Nilsson, Anders L.

    2017-06-01

    Here we report new reconstructions of winter temperature and summer moisture during the past millennium in southeastern Sweden, based on stable-isotope data from a composite tree-ring sequence, that further enhances our knowledge and understanding of seasonal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere over the past millennium. Key features of these new climate proxy records include evidence for distinctive fluctuations in winter temperature in SE Sweden, superimposed upon the general pattern of cooling between the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) of the early millennium and the Little Ice Age (LIA) of the late millennium, as well as evidence for sustained summer wetness during the MCA, followed by drier and less variable conditions during the LIA. We also explore these new records within a circumpolar spatial context by employing self-organizing map analysis of meteorological reanalysis data to identify potential modern analogues of mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation types in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics that can reconcile varying seasonal climate states during the MCA and LIA in SE Sweden with less variable conditions in southwestern Canada, as portrayed by paleoclimate records developed in the same manner in an earlier study.

  2. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in the ECHAM3 general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.

    1994-01-01

    First we consider the GCM's capability to reproduce the midlatitude variability on intra-seasonal time scales by a comparison with observational data (ECMWF analyses). Secondly we assess the possible influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the intra-seasonal variability by comparing estimates obtained from different simulations performed with ECHAM3 with varying and fixed SST as boundary forcing. The intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is underestimated over most of the Northern Hemisphere. While the contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations are reasonably well captured by the model, ECHAM3 fails to reproduce the observed level of low-frequency intra-seasonal variability. This is mainly due to the underestimation of the variability caused by the ultra-long planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes by the model. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, on the other hand, the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is generally underestimated in the area north of about 50 southern latitude, but overestimated at higher latitudes. This is the case for the contributions of the high-frequency and the low-frequency transient fluctuations as well. Further, the model indicates a strong tendency for zonal symmetry, in particular with respect to the high-frequency transient fluctuations. While the two sets of simulations with varying and fixed Sea Surface Temepratures as boundary forcing reveal only small regional differences in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strong response to be found in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations to the intra-seasonal variability are generally stronger in the simulations with fixed SST. Further, the Pacific storm track is shifted slightly poleward in this set of simulations. For the low-frequency intra-seasonal variability the model gives a strong, but regional response to the interannual variations of the SST. (orig.)

  3. Winter Wonderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Mary

    2011-01-01

    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  4. Another hint for a changing stratospheric circulation after 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boenisch, H.; Engel, A.; Hoor, P.

    2009-04-01

    Aircraft data were used to study interannual changes of extratropical lower stratospheric tracer-tracer correlations. The focus is on the time periods before and after 2001 between which a remarkable step-like decrease of stratospheric water vapour has occurred (Randel et al., 2006). This feature associated with a cooling of temperatures near the tropical tropopause, and a decrease in tropical ozone at about the same time has been linked by Randel et al. (2006) to an increased stratospheric upwelling circulation in the tropics (the so-called Brewer-Dobson circulation) caused by enhanced wave driving after 2000 (Dhomse et al., 2006). Analysis of the extratropical tracer-tracer correlations shows different slopes before and after 2000. These changes could be explained by an enhanced horizontal tracer transport from the tropical lower stratosphere into the extratropics, taking into account that mean age of air has remained constant over the last 3 decades in the midlatitude stratosphere above 30 hPa (Engel et al., 2009). We will present a comparison of in-situ measured tracer-tracer correlations in the extratropical lower stratosphere before and after 2001 and discuss implications for a changing stratospheric circulation. References: Dhomse, S., Weber, M., and Burrows, J.: The relationship between tropospheric wave forcing and tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 471-480, 2008. Engel, A., T. Möbius, H. Bönisch, U. Schmidt, R. Heinz, I. Levin, E. Atlas, S. Aoki, T. Nakazawa, S. Sugawara, F. Moore, D. Hurst, J. Elkins, S. Schauffler, A. Andrews, and K. Boering (2009), Age of stratospheric air unchanged within uncertainties over the past 30 years, Nature Geosci., 2, 28-31. Randel, W. J., F. Wu, H. Vömel, G. E. Nedoluha, and P. Forster (2006), Decreases in stratospheric water vapor after 2001: Links to changes in the tropical tropopause and the Brewer-Dobson circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12312, doi:10.1029/2005JD006744.

  5. Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

    2017-07-20

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

  6. Extratropical Weather Systems on Mars: Radiatively-Active Water Ice Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

    2017-01-01

    Extratropical, large-scale weather disturbances, namely transient, synoptic-period,baroclinic barotropic eddies - or - low- (high-) pressure cyclones (anticyclones), are components fundamental to global circulation patterns for rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmospheres such as Earth and Mars. Such "wave-like" disturbances that arise via (geophysical) fluid shear instability develop, mature and decay, and travel west-to-east in the middle and high latitudes within terrestrial-like planetary atmospheres. These disturbances serve as critical agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Moreover, they transport trace species within the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor/ice, other aerosols (dust), chemical species, etc). Between early autumn through early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equator-to-pole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems [Banfield et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 1993]. A good example of traveling weather systems, frontal wave activity and sequestered dust activity from MGS/MOC image analyses is provided in Figure 1 (cf. Wang et al. [2005]). Utilizing an upgraded and evolving version of the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Mars global climate model, investigated here are key dynamical and physical aspects of simulated northern hemisphere (NH) large-scale extratropica lweather systems,with and without radiatively-active water ice clouds. Mars Climate Model:

  7. Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Widmann

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate proxy data provide noisy, and spatially incomplete information on some aspects of past climate states, whereas palaeosimulations with climate models provide global, multi-variable states, which may however differ from the true states due to unpredictable internal variability not related to climate forcings, as well as due to model deficiencies. Using data assimilation for combining the empirical information from proxy data with the physical understanding of the climate system represented by the equations in a climate model is in principle a promising way to obtain better estimates for the climate of the past.

    Data assimilation has been used for a long time in weather forecasting and atmospheric analyses to control the states in atmospheric General Circulation Models such that they are in agreement with observation from surface, upper air, and satellite measurements. Here we discuss the similarities and the differences between the data assimilation problem in palaeoclimatology and in weather forecasting, and present and conceptually compare three data assimilation methods that have been developed in recent years for applications in palaeoclimatology. All three methods (selection of ensemble members, Forcing Singular Vectors, and Pattern Nudging are illustrated by examples that are related to climate variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium. In particular it is shown that all three methods suggest that the cold period over Scandinavia during 1790–1820 is linked to anomalous northerly or easterly atmospheric flow, which in turn is related to a pressure anomaly that resembles a negative state of the Northern Annular Mode.

  8. Impact of biomass burning aerosol on the monsoon circulation transition over Amazonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Y.; Fu, Rong; Yu, Hongbin; Qian, Yun; Dickinson, Robert; Silva Dias, Maria Assuncao F.; da Silva Dias, Pedro L.; Fernandes, Katia

    2009-05-30

    Ensemble simulations of a regional climate model (RegCM3) forced by aerosol radiative forcing suggest that biomass burning aerosols can work against the seasonal monsoon circulation transition, thus re-enforce the dry season rainfall pattern for Southern Amazonia. Strongly absorbing smoke aerosols warm and stabilize the lower troposphere within the smoke center in southern Amazonia (where aerosol optical depth > 0.3). These changes increase the surface pressure in the smoke center, weaken the southward surface pressure gradient between northern and southern Amazonia, and consequently induce an anomalous moisture divergence in the smoke center and an anomalous convergence occurs in northwestern Amazonia (5°S-5°N, 60°W-40 70°W). The increased atmospheric thermodynamic stability, surface pressure, and divergent flow in Southern Amazonia may inhibit synoptic cyclonic activities propagated from extratropical South America, and re-enforce winter-like synoptic cyclonic activities and rainfall in southeastern Brazil, Paraguay and northeastern Argentina.

  9. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in extratropical cyclones passing over mountain ranges: KH Waves in Extratropical Cyclones over Mountain Ranges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medina, Socorro [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Houze, Robert A. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-02-19

    Kelvin–Helmholtz billows with horizontal scales of 3–4 km have been observed in midlatitude cyclones moving over the Italian Alps and the Oregon Cascades when the atmosphere was mostly statically stable with high amounts of shear and Ri < 0.25. In one case, data from a mobile radar located within a windward facing valley documented a layer in which the shear between down-valley flow below 1.2 km and strong upslope cross-barrier flow above was large. Several episodes of Kelvin–Helmholtz waves were observed within the shear layer. The occurrence of the waves appears to be related to the strength of the shear: when the shear attained large values, an episode of billows occurred, followed by a sharp decrease in the shear. The occurrence of large values of shear and Kelvin–Helmholtz billows over two different mountain ranges suggests that they may be important features occurring when extratropical cyclones with statically stable flow pass over mountain ranges.

  10. Nonlinearity of the Extratropical Response to Tropical Forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hai; Derome, Jacques

    2004-07-01

    A primitive equations dry atmospheric model is used to investigate the atmospheric response to a tropical diabatic forcing pattern and explore how the atmospheric response changes as a function of the amplitude of the forcing. The forcing anomaly represents a linear fit of the model forcing to a tropical SST pattern of an El Niño/La Niña type. The time-averaged 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly responses of two long integrations, with forcing anomalies of equal amplitudes but opposite signs, show an asymmetric feature that is similar to observations and to previous modeling results related to El Niño and La Niña. Ensemble experiments with 61 different amplitudes of this forcing pattern are conducted. An EOF analysis of the ensemble mean of the 90-day-averaged 500-hPa height for different amplitudes of forcings shows that the leading mode of the forced variability resembles the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, while the second mode is a wave train across the North Atlantic to Eurasia. The relationship between the amplitude of the PNA mode and the amplitude of the forcing is linear, while the amplitude of the Atlantic/Eurasian mode has a nearly parabolic relationship with the amplitude of the forcing. A set of linear experiments with forcing perturbations and eddy flux anomalies associated with the positive and negative amplitudes of forcing conditions indicates that the nonlinearity of the extratropical response primarily results from the modification of the “basic state” caused by the large-amplitude forcing and the subsequent sensitivity of the response to that modified basic flow. A La Niña type basic state yields a stronger response in the North Atlantic to the tropical Pacific forcing than does an El Niño type basic state.

  11. Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

    2018-01-01

    Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

  12. Satellite-Based Analysis of a Warm Conveyor Belt in a Marine Extratropical Cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, J.; Posselt, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones play a paramount role in Earth's climate through meridional energy transport from the equator to the poles, as well as through cloud and precipitation formation by providing a majority of observed precipitation in the midlatitudes. The warm conveyor belt is a poleward airstream of ascending moisture that rises from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere. It is responsible for transporting a preponderant amount of water vapor present in an extratropical cyclone, with nearly 100% efficiency at precipitating all transported moisture. The community's understanding of marine extratropical cyclones and their synoptic dynamics originates from the Shapiro and Keyser Model, but there is less understanding of the mesoscale evolution of the cloud and precipitation structures within an extratropical cyclone and its warm conveyor belt. This research aims to better understand extratropical cyclone and warm conveyor belt evolution on the mesoscale using a specific case study. In late November 2006, a marine extratropical cyclone formed east of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean, travelling parallel to the eastern seaboard for nearly a week. Model analysis showed the presence of a strong warm conveyor belt associated with the cyclone. Given that the system remained in nearly the same longitudinal position, it was observed multiple times by NASA's Afternoon-Train (A-Train) satellite constellation. CloudSat radar reflectivity profiles and ECMWF-AUX thermodynamic fields show a transition from stratiform to convective precipitation along the northern edge of the conveyer belt, with larger vertical instability and isolated higher rain rates. Examination of the storm scale context indicates this convection may develop in place rather than via interaction with the cold front. These results give us a better understanding of structural evolution of clouds and precipitation as it interacts with the cyclone-scale dynamics and surrounding thermodynamic environment.

  13. Diagnosis of the source of medium-range forecast errors for an extratropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamberson, William S.

    Medium-range forecasts of an extratropical cyclone set to impact Western Europe on 16 Dec 2011 consistently predicted that the cyclone would be intense, with a minimum pressure as low as 930-hPa and an expansive area of high winds. In actuality, the cyclone never deepened below 965-hPa and its impact on Western Europe was minimal. This study seeks to investigate and document sources of error in medium-range forecasts for this event. The dynamical processes responsible for an intense extratropical cyclone are diagnosed using five and six-day forecasts for the event from the 51-member European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System. To accomplish this, ensemble members with relatively accurate forecasts are compared against those that predicted an intense cyclone. The comparison indicates that accurate forecasts are characterized by a more intense ridge building event over Alaska on 11 Dec that occurred in associated with the Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB) of an intensifying extratropical cyclone over the Pacific Ocean. The ridge building event perturbed the waveguide and generated a Rossby wave packet, with a potent trough at the packet's leading edge. A more amplified ridge acted as a more intense perturbation on the waveguide and had the effect of increasing the eastward speed of the Rossby wave packet. The increased eastward speed of this wave packet did not allow the trough at its leading edge to phase with and enhance the development of the extratropical cyclone as it moved towards Western Europe. In contrast, the less amplified ridge building event seen in the members with a strong extratropical cyclone allowed the wave packet to move downstream at a slower speed and the trough at the packet's leading edge to phase with and enhance the development of the extratropical cyclone headed towards Western Europe.

  14. PV-θ view of diabatic–dynamical interaction in the general circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarnout J. Van Delden

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the question how the zonal mean potential vorticity (PV distribution in potential temperature (θ coordinates is established in the atmosphere by the interaction of diabatic processes (cross-isentropic transport of mass with adiabatic dynamical processes (isentropic transport of mass and potential vorticity substance. As an aid in dissecting this interaction, a simplified model of the general circulation is constructed, which contains parametrisations of radiative transfer, wave drag and water cycle. This model reproduces the following four observed features of the atmosphere below 10 hPa: (1 a permanently present eastward subtropical jet, which in winter is separated from an eastward stratospheric jet by a zone (referred to as the ‘surf zone’, between θ=380 K and θ=550 K, where planetary wave drag reduces PV over the polar cap; (2 a stratospheric zonal wind reversal in spring or beginning of summer; (3 a tropical cold layer at 100 hPa, and (4 a realistic distribution of zonal mean cross-isentropic flow. The strength of the cross-isentropic flow depends on wave drag, latent heat release and the thermal inertia of both the atmosphere and the earth's surface. Of special interest is the layer between θ=315 K and θ=370 K (the ‘Middleworld’, which lies in the troposphere in the tropics and in the stratosphere in the extratropics. Mass converges diabatically into this layer in the deep tropics, mainly due to latent heat release, and diverges out of this layer elsewhere due to radiation flux divergence. Meridional isentropic vorticity flux divergence in the tropical Middleworld, associated with the upper branch of the Hadley circulation, creates a region in the subtropics, at θ=350 K and adjacent isentropic levels, with a marked isentropic meridional PV-gradient, forming the isentropic dynamical tropopause.

  15. WINTER SAECULUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  16. Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2017-12-01

    An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

  17. Intraseasonal relationships between tropical heating and extratropical jets

    OpenAIRE

    Neith, Michael T.

    1992-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Intraseasonal variations of the northern midlatitude circulation and their relationships with the global tropical heating field are investigated using climate model fields. The greatest intraseasonal variance in the midlatitude flow is found in the vicinity of the time mean jets, and in the areas immediately downstream of these jet exits. The model kinetic energy field associated with these jets shows a clear 30-60 day variation and ...

  18. Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Levermann, Anders

    2014-01-01

    The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have

  19. CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and biomass plantations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Eickhout, B.; Hoogwijk, M.; Strengers, B.; Vuuren, van D.J.; Leemans, R.; Opsteegh, T.

    2006-01-01

    We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios, aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2, we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass

  20. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safety During Fire Cleanup Wildfires PSAs Related Links Winter Weather About Winter Weather Before a Storm Prepare Your Home Prepare Your Car Winter Weather Checklists During a Storm Indoor Safety During ...

  1. Dynamical Meteorology of the Equatorial and Extratropical Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkerton, Tomothy

    1999-01-01

    Observational studies were performed of westward propagating synoptic scale waves in the tropical troposphere, the structure of monsoon circulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and zonally propagating features in deep tropical convection. The effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were investigated, and a numerical study of the QBO was performed using a two-dimensional model, highlighting the role of gravity waves in the momentum balance of the QBO. Vertical coupling of the troposphere and stratosphere was examined in polar regions on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. A deep circumpolar mode was discovered, now known as the Arctic Oscillation.

  2. Characteristics of different convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of intensity and track of severe extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, P. K.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ferreira, Juan A.; Dasamsetti, S.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

    2018-01-01

    The role of the convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the ARW-WRF (WRF) mesoscale model is examined for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of very severe winter storms such as Xynthia (2010) and Gong (2013) are considered in this study. Most popular CPSs within WRF model, along with Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and WSM6 microphysical parameterization schemes are incorporated for the model experiments. For each storm, four numerical experiments were carried out using New Kain Fritsch (NKF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (Gr3D) and no convection scheme (NCS) respectively. The prime objectives of these experiments were to recognize the best CPS that can forecast the intensity, track, and landfall over the Iberian Peninsula in advance of two days. The WRF model results such as central sea level pressure (CSLP), wind field, moisture flux convergence, geopotential height, jet stream, track and precipitation have shown sensitivity CPSs. The 48-hour lead simulations with BMJ schemes produce the best simulations both regarding ETCs intensity and track than Gr3D and NKF schemes. The average MAE and RMSE of intensities are least that (6.5 hPa in CSLP and 3.4 ms- 1 in the 10-m wind) found in BMJ scheme. The MAE and RMSE for and intensity and track error have revealed that NCS produces large errors than other CPSs experiments. However, for track simulation of these ETCs, at 72-, 48- and 24-hour means track errors were 440, 390 and 158 km respectively. In brevity, BMJ and Gr3D schemes can be used for short and medium range predictions of the ETCs over North Atlantic. For the evaluation of precipitation distributions using Gr3D scheme are good agreement with TRMM satellite than other CPSs.

  3. Pacific decadal climate variability: Indices, patterns and tropical-extratropical interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, Benjamin J.

    2017-08-01

    Pacific decadal variability (PDV) plays a critical role in the climate system. Here I present a review of indices and patterns of decadal climate variability in the Pacific from observations and palaeoclimate reconstructions. I examine the spatial characteristics of Pacific sea surface temperature variability and the metrics used to track observations of PDV. I find commonalities between the PDV patterns, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and its North and South Pacific counterparts, the Pacific Decadal and South Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO and SPDO). I present a tool to provide probabilistic quantification of the recent state of the IPO, and use the tool to provide reliable estimates of IPO state up to 2 years prior to the present. The tool indicates a probability of 80-90% that the IPO remained in its negative state until 2014-2015. I review palaeoclimate reconstructions of the IPO and PDO, and outline advances and challenges in our pre-instrumental understanding of PDV. I draw attention to a Pacific-wide tropical-extratropical mechanism that suggests that the cool and warm phases of PDV are not driven by tropical or extratropical variability alone, but are instead the result of continuous tropical-extratropical interactions on decadal timescales. I conclude by noting key sources of remaining uncertainty and emphasising the need to better understand decadal variability. This will occur through continual improvements in observations, an expansion of palaeoclimate exploration and data collection, and renewed efforts in model development.

  4. Significant Contributions of Volcanic Aerosols to Decadal Changes in the Stratospheric Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, M.; Ploeger, F.; Konopka, P.; Birner, T.; Müller, R.; Riese, M.; Garny, H.; Legras, B.; Ray, E.; Berthet, G.; Jegou, F.

    2017-10-01

    The stratospheric circulation is an important element of climate as it determines the concentration of radiatively active species like water vapor and aerosol above the tropopause. Climate models predict that increasing greenhouse gas levels speed up the stratospheric circulation. However, these results have been challenged by observational estimates of the circulation strength, constituting an uncertainty in current climate simulations. Here, we quantify the effect of volcanic aerosol on the stratospheric circulation focusing on the Mount Pinatubo eruption and discussing further the minor extratropical volcanic eruptions after 2008. We show that the observed pattern of decadal circulation change over the past decades is substantially driven by volcanic aerosol injections. Thus, climate model simulations need to realistically take into account the effect of volcanic eruptions, including the minor eruptions after 2008, for a reliable reproduction of observed stratospheric circulation changes.

  5. Ocean Circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, Andrew F.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    The ocean moderates the Earth's climate due to its vast capacity to store and transport heat; the influence of the large-scale ocean circulation on changes in climate is considered in this chapter. The ocean experiences both buoyancy forcing (through heating/cooling and evaporation/precipitation) and wind forcing. Almost all ocean forcing occurs at the surface, but these changes are communicated throughout the entire depth of the ocean through the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). In ...

  6. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health ... Although there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect ...

  7. Winter maintenance performance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  8. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  9. Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

  10. Spring Changeover of the Middle Atmosphere Circulation Compared with Rocket Wind Data up to 80 Km

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entzian, G.; Tarasenko, D. A.; Lauter, E. A.

    1984-01-01

    The middle atmosphere circulation is governed by two seasonal basic states in winter and summer, twice a year separated by relatively shortlived reversal periods. These seasonal basic states of circulation and the spring changeover period between them are investigated.

  11. Decadal variation of the impact of La Niña on the winter Arctic stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuangyan; Li, Tim; Hu, Jinggao; Shen, Xi

    2017-05-01

    The impact of La Niña on the winter Arctic stratosphere has thus far been an ambiguous topic of research. Contradictory results have been reported depending on the La Niña events considered. This study shows that this is mainly due to the decadal variation of La Niña's impact on the winter Arctic stratosphere since the late 1970s. Specifically, during the period 1951-78, the tropospheric La Niña teleconnection exhibits a typical negative Pacific-North America pattern, which strongly inhibits the propagation of the planetary waves from the extratropical troposphere to the stratosphere, and leads to a significantly strengthened stratospheric polar vortex. In contrast, during 1979-2015, the La Niña teleconnection shifts eastwards, with an anomalous high concentrated in the northeastern Pacific. The destructive interference of the La Niña teleconnection with climatological stationary waves seen in the earlier period reduces greatly, which prevents the drastic reduction of planetary wave activities in the extratropical stratosphere. Correspondingly, the stratospheric response shows a less disturbed stratospheric polar vortex in winter.

  12. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

    1989-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  13. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, V. K. R.; Kay, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    The majority of midlatitude precipitation occurs in extratropical cyclones. The purpose of this study is to understand how and why precipitation changes in these cyclones due to global warming. Daily precipitation fields from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project are used for this purpose. Extratropical cyclone centers during three periods (1986 - 2005, 2016 - 2035 and 2081 - 2100 representing the present day, the near future and the far future respectively) are identified using a filtering algorithm based on pressure gradients typical of extratropical cyclone centers. For each cyclone center, the surrounding precipitation field is interpolated from the CESM grid onto a radial cap centered on the cyclone center. Average precipitation fields are calculated for the three periods to obtain "cyclone composites". In agreement with the warm conveyor belt model, the cyclone composites for the three periods have a comma-shaped precipitation band with maximum precipitation close to the cyclone center. The near future and the far future composites are compared with the present day composite to identify locations of significant change (at 95% confidence). Statistically significant precipitation increases are found both for the near future and the far future, especially near the cyclone center. To identify the processes contributing to these changes, we decompose precipitation change into two parts - one part that is due to changes in dynamics (mean cyclone wind speed) and another part that is due to changes in thermodynamics (mean cyclone water vapor path). We find that precipitation increases occur primarily due to changes in thermodynamics. We will also present ongoing work to investigate changes in cyclone location and density in a warming climate and also investigate land-ocean and hemispheric differences in cyclone charactersitics.

  14. Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

    2014-01-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

  15. Integrating Polar-Orbiting Products into the Forecast Routine for Explosive Cyclogenesis and Extratropical Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, M. J.; Berndt, E.; Malloy, K.; Mazur, K.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.; Phillips, J.; Goldberg, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) was added to the Satellite Proving Ground for Marine, Precipitation, and Satellite Analysis in late 2012, just in time to introduce forecasters to the very high-resolution imagery available from the Suomi-National Polar Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument when observing and forecasting Hurricane Sandy (2012). Since that time, more polar products have been introduced to the forecast routines at the National Weather Service (NWS) Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), Weather Prediction Center (WPC), Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). These new data sets have led to research projects at the OPC and TAFB that have specifically been looking into the early identification of stratospheric intrusions that lead to explosive cyclogenesis or extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Currently NOAA Unique CrIS/ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture soundings are available in AWIPS-II as a point-based display. Traditionally soundings are used to anticipate and forecast severe convection, however unique and valuable information can be gained from soundings for other forecasting applications, such as extratropical transition, especially in data sparse regions. Additional research has been conducted to look at how JPSS CrIS/ATMS NUCAPS soundings might help forecasters identify the pre-extratropical transition or pre-explosive cyclogenesis environments, leading to earlier diagnosis and better public advisories. CrIS/ATMS NUCAPS soundings, IASI and NUCAPS ozone products, NOAA G-IV GPS dropwindsondes, the Air Mass RGB, and single water vapor channels have been analyzed to look for the precursors to these high impact events. This presentation seeks to show some early analysis and potential uses of the polar

  16. Peripheral circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, M Harold; Davis, Michael J; Secher, Niels H; van Lieshout, Johannes J; Arce-Esquivel, Arturo A; Simmons, Grant H; Bender, Shawn B; Padilla, Jaume; Bache, Robert J; Merkus, Daphne; Duncker, Dirk J

    2012-01-01

    Blood flow (BF) increases with increasing exercise intensity in skeletal, respiratory, and cardiac muscle. In humans during maximal exercise intensities, 85% to 90% of total cardiac output is distributed to skeletal and cardiac muscle. During exercise BF increases modestly and heterogeneously to brain and decreases in gastrointestinal, reproductive, and renal tissues and shows little to no change in skin. If the duration of exercise is sufficient to increase body/core temperature, skin BF is also increased in humans. Because blood pressure changes little during exercise, changes in distribution of BF with incremental exercise result from changes in vascular conductance. These changes in distribution of BF throughout the body contribute to decreases in mixed venous oxygen content, serve to supply adequate oxygen to the active skeletal muscles, and support metabolism of other tissues while maintaining homeostasis. This review discusses the response of the peripheral circulation of humans to acute and chronic dynamic exercise and mechanisms responsible for these responses. This is accomplished in the context of leading the reader on a tour through the peripheral circulation during dynamic exercise. During this tour, we consider what is known about how each vascular bed controls BF during exercise and how these control mechanisms are modified by chronic physical activity/exercise training. The tour ends by comparing responses of the systemic circulation to those of the pulmonary circulation relative to the effects of exercise on the regional distribution of BF and mechanisms responsible for control of resistance/conductance in the systemic and pulmonary circulations. © 2012 American Physiological Society

  17. Circulation economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingebrigtsen, Stig; Jakobsen, Ove

    2006-01-01

    sustainability. To illustrate the theoretical discussion, the paper gives some practical examples from the reprocessing industry in Norway. Findings - The paper finds, first, effective and efficient use of natural resources is necessary to implement circular value chains. Second, sustainable development...... presupposes a perspective integrating economic, natural and cultural values. Third, to organize the interplay between all stakeholders we introduce an arena for communicative cooperation. Originality/value - The paper concludes that circulation economics presupposes a change in paradigm, from a mechanistic...

  18. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasilnikov, E. Yu.

    Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon) stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  19. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  20. Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  1. Equatorial zonal circulations: Historical perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastenrath, Stefan

    2007-04-01

    The changing perceptions on zonal circulations in the equatorial belt are traced for (a) stratospheric wind regimes, and (b) vertical-zonal circulation cells in the troposphere. (a) Observations from the Krakatoa eruption 1883 and Berson's 1908 expedition to East Africa, along with later soundings over Batavia (Jakarta) led to the notion of "Krakatoa easterlies" around 30 km (10 mb) and "Berson westerlies" around 20 km (50 mb). Prompted by contrary observations since the late 1950s, this dogma was replaced by the notion of easterlies alternating with westerlies in the equatorial stratosphere at a rhythm of about 26 months. (b) Stimulated by Bjerknes' postulate of a "Walker circulation" along the Pacific Equator, a multitude of such cells have been hypothesized at other longitudes, in part from zonal contrasts of temperature and cloudiness. Essential for the diagnosis of equatorial zonal circulation cells is the continuity following the flow between the centers of ascending and subsiding motion. Evaluation of the recent NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF Reanalysis upper-air datasets reveals equatorial zonal circulation cells over the Pacific all year round, over the Atlantic only in boreal winter, and over the Indian Ocean only in autumn, all being seasons and oceanic longitudes with strong zonal flow in the lower troposphere.

  2. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  3. Upstream Subtropical Signals Preceding the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Yoo, S.-H.; Kinter, J. L.; Miyakoda, K.; Ho, C.-H.

    2004-11-01

    In this study, the authors address several issues with respect to the antecedent signals of the large-scale Asian summer monsoon that were earlier identified by Webster and Yang. In particular, they revisit the changes in the subtropical upper-tropospheric westerlies preceding the monsoon, depict the detailed structure of the monsoon's antecedent signals, and investigate the physical processes from the signals to the monsoon. They also explore the teleconnection of these signals to various large-scale climate phenomena and emphasize the importance of the upstream location of the signals relative to the Tibetan Plateau and the monsoon.Before a strong (weak) Asian summer monsoon, the 200-mb westerlies over subtropical Asia are weak (strong) during the previous winter and spring. A significant feature of these signals is represented by the variability of the Middle East jet stream whose changes are linked to the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other climate phenomena. When this jet stream intensifies and shifts southeastward, cold air intrudes frequently from eastern Europe into the Middle East and southwestern Asia. As a result, in subtropical Asia, snow and precipitation increase, the ground wetness increases, and surface temperature decreases. A strengthening Middle East jet stream is also accompanied by increases in both stationary wave activity flux and higher-frequency eddy activities. The Tibetan Plateau acts to block these westerly activities propagating eastward and increase the persistence of the low-temperature anomalies, which in turn prolongs the atmospheric signals from winter to spring.A strong link is found between the persistent low-temperature anomalies and the decrease in geopotential height over southern Asia, including the Tibetan Plateau, in spring. The latter indicates a late establishment of the South Asian high, and implies a delay in the atmospheric transition from winter to summer conditions

  4. Potential vorticity dynamics for global scale circulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, C.; Schubert, W.

    1994-01-01

    One of the most notable advances in extratropical dynamics this decade has been the understanding of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes by using potential vorticity dynamics, the so called open-quotes IPV thinking.close quotes This analysis method has also been successfully extended to some tropical atmospheric circulation systems such as hurricanes and the Hadley circulation. The fundamental idea behind such a dynamic system rests with the fact that PV is a tracer-like quantity since it is conserved (in the absence of friction and diabatic heating) following a fluid particle and carries both significant dynamic and thermodynamic information regarding fluid motion. Thus, the prediction and inversion of PV form the most succinct dynamic view of atmospheric and oceanic motions. Furthermore, PV dynamics provides access to many insightful dynamic analyses such as: Propagation of Rossby waves, barotropic and baroclinic instabilities for shear flows, and wave-mean flow interactions. All these features make IPV analysis a very attractive tool for studying geophysical fluid systems

  5. The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, James F.; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne; Pfahl, Stephan

    2017-12-01

    The path and speed of extratropical cyclones along the east coast of North America influence their societal impact. This work characterizes the climatological relationship between cyclone track path and speed, and blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An analysis of Lagrangian cyclone track propagation speed and angle shows that the percentage of cyclones with blocks is larger for cyclones that propagate northward or southeastward, as is the size of the blocked region near the cyclone. Cyclone-centered composites show that propagation of cyclones relative to blocks is consistent with steering by the block: northward tracks more often have a block east/northeast of the cyclone; slow tracks tend to have blocks due north of the cyclone. Comparison with the NAO shows that to first-order blocking and the NAO steer cyclones in a similar manner. However, blocked cyclones are more likely to propagate northward, increasing the likelihood of cyclone related impacts.

  6. Growth of Errors and Uncertainties in Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts of U.S. East Coast Cool Season Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Minghua

    Cool-season extratropical cyclones near the U.S. East Coast often have significant impacts on the safety, health, environment and economy of this most densely populated region. Hence it is of vital importance to forecast these high-impact winter storm events as accurately as possible by numerical weather prediction (NWP), including in the medium-range. Ensemble forecasts are appealing to operational forecasters when forecasting such events because they can provide an envelope of likely solutions to serve user communities. However, it is generally accepted that ensemble outputs are not used efficiently in NWS operations mainly due to the lack of simple and quantitative tools to communicate forecast uncertainties and ensemble verification to assess model errors and biases. Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA), which employs a linear correlation and regression between a chosen forecast metric and the forecast state vector, can be used to analyze the forecast uncertainty development for both short- and medium-range forecasts. The application of ESA to a high-impact winter storm in December 2010 demonstrated that the sensitivity signals based on different forecast metrics are robust. In particular, the ESA based on the leading two EOF PCs can separate sensitive regions associated with cyclone amplitude and intensity uncertainties, respectively. The sensitivity signals were verified using the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) method based on a multi-model ensemble from CMC, ECMWF, and NCEP. The climatology of ensemble sensitivities for the leading two EOF PCs based on 3-day and 6-day forecasts of historical cyclone cases was presented. It was found that the EOF1 pattern often represents the intensity variations while the EOF2 pattern represents the track variations along west-southwest and east-northeast direction. For PC1, the upper-level trough associated with the East Coast cyclone and its downstream ridge are important to the forecast uncertainty in cyclone

  7. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    2011-01-01

    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern...... hemisphere. Can climatic conditions alone explain the sizeable difference in reduction in building activity in the construction sector in European countries in the winter months, or are other factors such as technology, economic cycles and schemes for financial compensation influential as well? What...... possibilities exist for reducing seasonal variation in employment? In addition to a literature review related to winter construction, European and national employment and meteorological data were studied. Finally, ministerial acts, ministerial orders or other public policy documents related to winter...

  8. Deer Wintering Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  9. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  10. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

  11. The oceanography of winter leads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morison, J. H.; McPhee, M. G.; Curtin, T. B.; Paulson, C. A.

    1992-07-01

    Leads in pack ice have long been considered important to the thermodynamics of the polar regions. A winter lead affects the ocean around it because it is a density source. As the surface freezes, salt is rejected and forms more dense water which sinks under the lead. This sets up a circulation with freshwater flowing in from the sides near the surface and dense water flowing away from the lead at the base of the mixed layer. If the mixed layer is fully turbulent, this pattern may not occur; rather, the salt rejected at the surface may simply mix into the surface boundary layer. In either event the instability produced at the surface of leads is the primary source of unstable buoyancy flux and, as such, exerts a strong influence on the mixed layer. Here as many as possible of the disparate and almost anecdotal observations of lead oceanography are assembled and combined with theoretical arguments to predict the form and scale of oceanographic disturbances caused by winter leads. The experimental data suggest the velocity disturbances associated with lead convection are about 1-5 cm s-1. These appear as jets near the surface and the base of the mixed layer when ice velocities across the lead are less than about 5 cm s-1. The salinity disturbances are about 0.01 to 0.05 psu. Scaling arguments suggest that the geostrophic currents set up by the lead density disturbances are also of the order of 1-5 cm s-1. The disturbances are most obvious when freezing is rapid and ice velocity is low because the salinity and velocity disturbances in the upper ocean are not smeared out by turbulence. In this vein, lead convection may be characterized at one extreme as free convection in which the density disturbance forces the circulation. At the other extreme, lead convection may be characterized as forced convection in which the density disturbance is mixed rapidly by boundary layer turbulence. The lead number Lo, which is the ratio of the pressure term to the turbulence term in the

  12. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  13. Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

    2018-05-01

    Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

  14. Development of an Extratropical Storm Wind, Wave, and Water Level Climatology for the Offshore Mid-Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    ERDC) for providing the POT algorithm and helpful insights into extremal analysis; Dr. Robert Jensen and Dr. Tyler Hesser (ERDC) for providing...powerful extratropical storms occurring on 27–29 January and 4–6 February 1998 detailed in Ramsey et al. (1998). These two storms generated winds in...surface wind speeds. Part I: Theory and seawinds observations. Journal of Climate 19:497–520. Ramsey , R., D. Leathers, D. Wells, and H. Talley. 1998

  15. Modelling seasonal circulation and thermohaline structure of the Caspian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gunduz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The wind- and buoyancy-driven seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea is investigated for a better understanding of its basin-wide and mesoscale dynamics, mixing and transport. The model successfully reproduces the following basic elements of the circulation: the southward-flowing current systems along the eastern and western coasts, the upwelling along the eastern coast, the cyclonic circulation in the Middle Caspian Sea (MCS, especially in winter, and the cyclonic and anticyclonic cells of circulation in the South Caspian Sea (SCS. The observed seasonal variability of sea level and sea surface temperature (SST is well reproduced. Mesoscale structures, not always evident from hydrographic observations, are identified.

  16. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Riley

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1 to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  17. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Zachary M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Murphy, Lisa N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Li, Fiyu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Bonfils, Celine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.

    2012-01-15

    We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  18. Titan's Emergence from Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  19. Nuclear Winter: The implications for civil defense

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1987-01-01

    ''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to hypothesized cooling in the northern hemisphere following a nuclear war due to injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the original paper in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. The widespread use of 3-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling; 15 to 25 0 C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought are likely to be direct threats to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures; The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and could present problems to third parties without food reserves; and Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor unexpected threat from nuclear war to the US and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the US due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year. 6 refs

  20. Nuclear Winter: Implications for civil defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1988-05-01

    ''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to the cooling hypothesized to occur in the Northern Hemisphere following a nuclear war as the result of the injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the paper was published in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. Three-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling---15 to 25/degree/C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought is likely to be a direct threat to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures. The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and this could present problems to third parties who are without food reserves. Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor an unexpected threat from nuclear war to the United States and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the United States due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year.

  1. Mixing in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Model-measurements Comparisons using MLM Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.; Kawa, Stephan R.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We evaluate transport processes in the extratropical lower stratosphere for both models and measurements with the help of equivalent length diagnostic from the modified Lagrangian-mean (MLM) analysis. This diagnostic is used to compare measurements of long-lived tracers made by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with simulated tracers. Simulations are produced in Chemical and Transport Models (CTMs), in which meteorological fields are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model (MACCM2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) "SKYHI" model, respectively. Time series of isentropic equivalent length show that these models are able to capture major mixing and transport properties observed by CLAES, such as the formation and destruction of polar barriers, the presence of surf zones in both hemispheres. Differences between each model simulation and the observation are examined in light of model performance. Among these differences, only the simulation driven by GEOS DAS shows one case of the "top-down" destruction of the Antarctic polar vortex, as observed in the CLAES data. Additional experiments of isentropic advection of artificial tracer by GEOS DAS winds suggest that diabatic movement might have considerable contribution to the equivalent length field in the 3D CTM diagnostics.

  2. Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

    2016-12-01

    The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

  3. Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.; Janoski, T. P.

    2017-12-01

    In the northeastern United States, many of the strongest impacts from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are associated with storms that exhibit slow movement, unusual tracks, or exceptional intensity. Examples of extreme ETCs include the Appalachian storm of November 1950, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the Superstorm of March 1993. Owing to the rare nature of these events, it is difficult to quantify the associated risks (e.g. high winds, storm surge) given the limited duration of high-quality observational datasets. Furthermore, storms with even greater impacts than those observed may be possible, particularly in a warming climate. In the context of tropical cyclones, Lin and Emanuel (2016) have used the metaphor "grey swans" to refer to high-impact events that have not been observed but may be physically possible. One method for analyzing "grey swans" is to generate a larger sample of ETCs using a coupled climate model. Therefore, we use long simulations (over 1,000 years with atmospheric constituents fixed at 1990 levels) from a global climate model (GFDL FLOR) with 50km atmospheric resolution. FLOR has been shown to realistically simulate the spatial distribution and climatology of ETCs during the reanalysis era. We will discuss the climatological features of these extreme ETC events.

  4. Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, A. J.; Ouwersloot, H. G.; Feldstein, S. B.; Riemer, M.; El Kenawy, A. M.; McCabe, M. F.; Lelieveld, J.

    2018-01-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability, and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

  5. Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East based on Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

    KAUST Repository

    de Vries, A. J.

    2017-12-26

    Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

  6. South-coast cyclone in Japan during El Niño-caused warm winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueda, Hiroaki; Amagai, Yuusuke; Hayasaki, Masamitsu

    2017-05-01

    La Niña conditions during boreal winter sometimes brings excessive snowfall in Japan, especially on the East Sea/Sea of Japan coastal and mountain areas through intensified northwesterly cold winds caused by La-Niña related atmospheric teleconnection. Meanwhile, snowfall events also increase in the Pacific coast area of Japan during the El Niño state due to extratropical cyclones passing along the south coast of Japan (hereafter referred to as South-coast cyclone). In the present study, we investigated year-to-year snowfall/rainfall variations based on meteorological station data and cyclone tracks identified by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. The result clearly indicates increase of the South-coast cyclone during El Niño-developing winters, which is consistent with excessive snow-fall in the northern part of the Pacific coast. Strong subtropical jet hampers cyclogenesis due to less vertical interaction through the trapping of upper-level eddies. During El Niño-developing winters, the subtropical jet is weakened over East Asia, indicating dynamic linkage to increased cyclone frequency. In addition to this, both the deepening of the upper-tropospheric trough over East Asia and anomalous low-tropospheric northwest anticyclones extending from the Philippines toward Japan are also consistent with the enhancement of cyclogenesis over the East China Sea as well as warm winter in Japan.

  7. Relevance of warm conveyor belts for the dynamics of weather systems and the radiation budget in the extra-tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Hanna

    2014-05-01

    Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are warm and moist airstreams in extra-tropical cyclones. They originate in the warm sector of the cyclone close to the surface and ascend in approximately two days ahead of the cold front to the upper troposphere. During the ascent, clouds and precipitation are forming and thus WCBs can be identified on satellite imagery as elongated cloud bands. Due to the cloud formation which is associated with the release of latent heat, WCBs are important for the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones. The main process behind is the modification of potential vorticity (PV) due to the latent heating/cooling. In a first order, PV is produced below the maximum of diabatic heating and destroyed above. Thus, WCBs produce a positive PV anomaly in the mid-troposphere and a negative PV anomaly in the outflow in the upper troposphere. The positive anomaly can be important for the cyclone intensification and/or mesoscale dynamics along the cold front whereas the negative anomaly influences the large-scale upper tropospheric PV pattern. On the other hand, WCBs are important for the radiative budget in the extra-tropics. As they represent the main cloud producing airflow in extratropical cyclones they are responsible for the formation of a great part of condensate (liquid and ice) in the storm track regions. Subsequently, they are also responsible for a great part of the cloud radiative forcing and thus strongly influence the radiative budget in the extra-tropics. This presentation consists of two parts. In the first part we focus on the potential of WCBs to modify the PV. It is shown how the various microphysical processes occurring during the formation of clouds modify the PV along WCB trajectories. Therefore a simulation of a WCB with the regional NWP model COSMO is analyzed in detail. It can be seen that the condensation of water vapour as well as the depositional growth of snow strongly contribute to the latent heating in the WCB and therefore also modify the

  8. Snow cover setting-up dates in the north of Eurasia: relations and feedback to the macro-scale atmospheric circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Popova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations of snow cover onset data in 1950–2008 based on daily snow depth data collected at first-order meteorological stations of the former USSR compiled at the Russia Institute of Hydrometeorological Information are analyzed in order to reveal climatic norms, relations with macro-scale atmospheric circulation and influence of snow cover anomalies on strengthening/weakening of westerly basing on observational data and results of simulation using model Planet Simulator, as well. Patterns of mean snow cover setting-up data and their correlation with temperature of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical land presented in Fig. 1 show that the most sensible changes observed in last decade are caused by temperature trend since 1990th. For the most portion of the studied territory variations of snow cover setting-up data may be explained by the circulation indices in the terms of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns: Scand, EA–WR, WP and NAO (Fig. 2. Role of the Scand and EA–WR (see Fig. 2, а, в, г is recognized as the most significant.Changes of snow cover extent calculated on the base of snow cover onset data over the Russia territory, and its western and eastern parts as well, for the second decade of October (Fig. 3 demonstrate significant difference in variability between eastern and western regions. Eastern part of territory essentially differs by lower both year-to-year and long-term variations in the contrast to the western part, characterized by high variance including long-term tendencies: increase in 1950–70th and decrease in 1970–80 and during last six years. Nevertheless relations between snow cover anomalies and Arctic Oscillation (AO index appear to be significant exceptionally for the eastern part of the territory. In the same time negative linear correlation revealed between snow extent and AO index changes during 1950–2008 from statistically insignificant values (in 1950–70 and 1996–2008 to coefficient

  9. Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

  10. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  11. Winter is losing its cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.

    2017-12-01

    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  12. Ensemble tropical-extratropical cyclone coastal flood hazard assessment with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orton, P. M.; Lin, N.; Colle, B.

    2016-12-01

    A challenge with quantifying future changes in coastal flooding for the U.S. East Coast is that climate change has varying effects on different types of storms, in addition to raising mean sea levels. Moreover, future flood hazard uncertainties are large and come from many sources. Here, a new coastal flood hazard assessment approach is demonstrated that separately evaluates and then combines probabilities of storm tide generated from tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs). The separation enables us to incorporate climate change impacts on both types of storms. The assessment accounts for epistemic storm tide uncertainty using an ensemble of different prior studies and methods of assessment, merged with uncertainty in climate change effects on storm tides and sea levels. The assessment is applied for New York Harbor, under the auspices of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). In the New York Bight region and much of the U.S. East Coast, differing flood exceedance curve slopes for TCs and ETCs arise due to their differing physics. It is demonstrated how errors can arise for this region from mixing together storm types in an extreme value statistical analysis, a common practice when using observations. The effects of climate change on TC and ETC flooding have recently been assessed for this region, for TCs using a Global Climate Model (GCM) driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic modeling, and for ETCs using a GCM-driven multilinear regression-based storm surge model. The results of these prior studies are applied to our central estimates of the flood exceedance curve probabilities, transforming them for climate change effects. The results are useful for decision-makers because they highlight the large uncertainty in present-day and future flood risk, and also for scientists because they identify the areas where further research is most needed.

  13. Improving the calculation of particle trajectories in the extra-tropical troposphere using standard NCEP fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paldor, Nathan; Dvorkin, Yona; Basdevant, C.

    The calculation of particle trajectories in the extra-tropical troposphere is improved by a hybrid model that employs the temperature and geopotential fields to supplement the velocity field. The hybrid model uses the temperature and geopotential fields to construct the Montgomery Stream function, which, together with a Rayleigh friction force and the Coriolis force determine the evolution of a "correctional velocity" based on Newton's 2nd law of motion. This velocity, however, is decoupled from the continuity equation so its horizontal divergence does not affect the pressure. The improvement of the trajectory calculation is obtained by integrating a linear combination of National Centers for Environmental Predictions' (NCEP) velocity field and the "correctional velocity" computed from NCEP's temperature and geopotential fields. The improvement of the model-generated trajectories over those obtained from a straightforward advection by the velocity field is verified by comparing the calculated trajectories to the observed trajectories of 379 constant-level balloons launched in 1971 as part of the EOLE experiment. For flight times between 2 and 10 weeks the new algorithm generates trajectories that are statistically closer to the observed EOLE trajectories than those obtained from advection by the velocity field only. There are, however, several balloon flights where for certain, isolated, values of its parameters the hybrid model generates trajectories that are actually less accurate than those of straightforward advection. For balloon flights between 2 and 9 weeks the worst hybrid model trajectories are only about 4% less accurate than those of straightforward advection. The model's improvement over advection by the velocity field reaches a maximum value of over 15% for 4-7 week long trajectories while for 1 week long, or longer than 10 week long trajectories the model offers no improvement over straightforward advection by the velocity field.

  14. On the Development of Above-Anvil Cirrus Plumes in Extratropical Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homeyer, C. R.; McAuliffe, J. D.; Bedka, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Expansive cirrus clouds present above the anvils of extratropical convection have been observed in satellite and aircraft-based imagery for several decades. Despite knowledge of their occurrence, the precise mechanisms and atmospheric conditions leading to their formation and maintenance are not entirely known. Here, we examine the formation of these cirrus "plumes" using a combination of satellite imagery, three-dimensional ground-based radar observations, assimilated atmospheric states from a state-of-the-art reanalysis, and idealized numerical simulations with explicitly resolved convection. Using data from ten recent cases (2013-Present), we find that all storms with above-anvil cirrus plumes reach altitudes 1 to 6 km above the tropopause. Thus, it is likely that these clouds represent the injection of cloud material into the lower stratosphere. Comparison of above-anvil cirrus plume cases with ten additional cases of observed tropopause-penetrating convection without plumes reveals that these clouds are associated with large vector differences between the motion of a storm and the environmental wind in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), suggesting that gravity wave breaking and/or stretching of the tropopause-penetrating cloud are/is more prevalent in plume-producing storms. No relationship is found between above-anvil cirrus plume occurrence and the stability of the lower stratosphere (or tropopause structure) or the duration of stratospheric penetration. Idealized model simulations of tropopause-penetrating convection with small and large magnitudes of storm-relative wind in the UTLS are found to reproduce the established observational relationship and show that frequent gravity wave breaking is the primary mechanism responsible for above-anvil cirrus plume formation.

  15. Trend and teleconnection patterns in the climatology of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, Michelle Simões; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio; Ambrizzi, Tércio; Gouveia, Carolina Daniel

    2015-10-01

    This study investigated the annual and seasonal trend of the extratropical cyclones occurrence, from 1980 to 2012, considering the whole Southern Hemisphere (SH). The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the cyclones track density during the austral spring was also evaluated. Mean sea level pressure from National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis was used in an automatic scheme for cyclones tracking. The influence of the teleconnection patterns in the cyclones location is assessed through two methodologies: composite analysis and partial correlation technique. For whole SH and considering the total of cyclones and the stronger ones (with central pressure lower than 980 hPa in some period of their lifecycle) there is a statistically significant positive trend, while for weak cyclones the negative trend is not statistically significant. These patterns of trend occur along the year except in the spring. Regionally, the trend signal (positive or negative) of the cyclones occurrence varies spatially in each austral ocean. We suggested that the positive trend of the cyclones in high latitudes of the South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans would be associated with the last decades global warming. The number of cyclones in the different phases of the ENSO, SAM and IOD is similar to that of neutral periods. However, these teleconnection patterns are important to modify the preferential regions of cyclones occurrence. The composite analysis of the cyclones track density during ENSO and SAM events is similar to that obtained in the partial correlation; but it is not true for IOD. Isolating ENSO and SAM effects in the cyclones track density, it is observed that the IOD positive phase contributes to the decrease in the cyclones density in large part of SH, particularly over the Indian and western South Pacific Oceans.

  16. The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2018-04-01

    Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

  17. The Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction during the Last Millennium Based on a Novel Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Pei; Chen, Xin; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale climate history of the past millennium reconstructed solely from tree-ring data is prone to underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency variability. In this paper, we aimed at solving this problem by utilizing a novel method termed "MDVM", which was a combination of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variance matching techniques. We compiled a set of 211 tree-ring records from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (30-90°N) in an effort to develop a new reconstruction of the annual mean temperature by the MDVM method. Among these dataset, a number of 126 records were screened out to reconstruct temperature variability longer than decadal scale for the period 850-2000 AD. The MDVM reconstruction depicted significant low-frequency variability in the past millennium with evident Medieval Warm Period (MWP) over the interval 950-1150 AD and pronounced Little Ice Age (LIA) cumulating in 1450-1850 AD. In the context of 1150-year reconstruction, the accelerating warming in 20th century was likely unprecedented, and the coldest decades appeared in the 1640s, 1600s and 1580s, whereas the warmest decades occurred in the 1990s, 1940s and 1930s. Additionally, the MDVM reconstruction covaried broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing, and especially showed distinct footprints of multiple volcanic eruptions in the last millennium. Comparisons of our results with previous reconstructions and model simulations showed the efficiency of the MDVM method on capturing low-frequency variability, particularly much colder signals of the LIA relative to the reference period. Our results demonstrated that the MDVM method has advantages in studying large-scale and low-frequency climate signals using pure tree-ring data.

  18. Suppression of Powerful Clouds and Prevention of D Estructive Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones, S Evere Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Catastrophic Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasilnikov, E.

    Destructive tropical storms, hurricanes (typhoons), tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and extratropical cyclones and storms resulted in catastrophic floods annually inflict multitudinous death and injury and bring huge material damage in many countries. This problem is highly important and to date has not been solved. At the same time, practically all researches made concerning these phenomena fail to take into account that the origin and intensification of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes take place under conditions of an abnormally strong electric field which together with electromagnetohydrodynamic interaction occupies a key position in the ntensification process. The detailed description of the electromagnetohydrodynamic model explaining the processes of energy conversion in tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes is presented. Herewith, tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds generating tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones resulting in catastrophic floods are the powerful cloud systems containing huge mass of water. According to a hypothesis proposed in the paper an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting of this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in stability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather long-duration time. On the basis of the hypothesis a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease of an electric field, a sudden increase of precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method based on the natural phenomenon ensures prevention of intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon) stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It ensures as well suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates development of dangerous

  19. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.

    1984-12-01

    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  20. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino

    1986-01-01

    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  1. Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavers, David A; Allan, Richard P; Brayshaw, David J; Villarini, Gabriele; Lloyd-Hughes, Benjamin; Wade, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing. (letter)

  2. Twentieth Century Winter Changes in Southern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Modes

    OpenAIRE

    Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Frederiksen, Carsten S.

    2011-01-01

    During the last sixty years, there have been large changes in the southern hemisphere winter circulation and reductions in rainfall particularly in the southern Australian region. Here we examine the corresponding changes in dynamical modes of variability ranging from storm tracks, onset-of-blocking modes, northwest cloud-band disturbances, Antarctic low-frequency modes, intraseasonal oscillations, and African easterly waves. Our study is performed using a global two-level primitive equation ...

  3. Structural and Environmental Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones that Cause Tornado Outbreaks in the Warm Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tochimoto, Eigo; Niino, Hiroshi

    2016-04-01

    The differences in structural and environmental characteristics of extratropical cyclones (hereafter, ECs) that cause tornado outbreaks and those that do not were examined through composite analyses of the newly-released Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-55) and idealized numerical experiments. ECs that developed in the United States in April and May between 1995 and 2012 are categorized into two groups: ECs accompanied by 15 or more tornadoes (hereafter, outbreak cyclones (OCs)) and ECs accompanied by 5 or less tornadoes (non-outbreak cyclones (NOCs)). 55 OCs and 41 NOCs that are of similar strength as OCs are selected in this study. The composite analyses show significant differences in convective environmental parameters between OCs and NOCs. For OCs, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative environmental helicity (SREH) are larger and the areas in which these parameters have significant values are wider in the warm sector. The larger CAPE in OCs is due to larger amount of low-level water vapor, while the larger SREH in OCs due to stronger southerly wind at low levels. A piecewise potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics (Davis and Emanuel, 1991) indicates that low- to mid-level PV anomalies mainly contribute to the difference in the low-level winds between OCs and NOCs. On the other hand, the low-level winds associated with upper-level PV anomalies are not the major contributor to the difference. The results of the idealized numerical experiments for OCs and NOCs (hereafter, referred to as OC-CTL and NOC-CTL, respectively) using WRF ver. 3.4 show that the characteristics of the low-level wind fields and SREH distributions for the simulated ECs in OC-CTL and NOC-CTL are similar to those for OCs and NOCs, respectively. In OC-CTL, SREH and low-level winds in the east-southeast region of the EC center is larger than those in NOC-CTL, respectively. It is suggested that these differences are due to the structures of jetstream. The structure of

  4. Measurements for winter road maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Riehm, Mats

    2012-01-01

    Winter road maintenance activities are crucial for maintaining the accessibility and traffic safety of the road network at northerly latitudes during winter. Common winter road maintenance activities include snow ploughing and the use of anti-icing agents (e.g. road salt, NaCl). Since the local weather is decisive in creating an increased risk of slippery conditions, understanding the link between local weather and conditions at the road surface is critically important. Sensors are commonly i...

  5. Effects of El Nino Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Do-Woo [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Ki-Seon [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Typhoon Center, Jeju (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hi-Ryong [Pukyong National University, Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Nam-gu, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-04-15

    This study compares the impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on precipitation over Korea during the boreal winters from 1954 to 2009. Precipitation in Korea tends to be equal to or greater than the normal level during an El Nino Modoki winter, whereas there is no significant change during an El Nino winter. Greater than normal precipitation during El Nino Modoki was also found over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China and much of southern Japan. The latitudes of these regions are 5-10 further north than in southern China, where precipitation increases during El Nino. The following two anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be causes that led to different precipitation distributions over East Asia. First, an atmospheric wave train in the lower troposphere, which propagated from the central tropical Pacific (cyclonic) through the southern Philippine Sea (anticyclonic) to East Asia (cyclonic), reached the southern China and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino, whereas it reached Korea and southern Japan during El Nino Modoki. Second, an anomalous local meridional circulation, which consists of air sinking in the tropics, flowing poleward in the lower troposphere, and rising in the subtropics, developed between the southern Philippine Sea and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino. During El Nino Modoki, however, this circulation expanded further to the north and was formed between the southern Philippine Sea and regions of Korea and southern Japan. (orig.)

  6. Role of extratropical cyclones in the recently observed increase in poleward moisture transport into the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamil-Otero, Gian A.; Zhang, Jing; He, Juanxiong; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2018-01-01

    Poleward atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vapor content and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surface energy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced poleward AMT across 60°N since 1959 based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMT predominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to the total transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role that extratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60°N into the Arctic Ocean each year, among which about 66 (32% of the total) and 47 (23%) originate from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, we found a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index (measurement of cyclone intensity, number, and duration). This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parameters and may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysis indicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activity play an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.

  7. North Pacific Westerly Jet Influence of the Winter Hawaii Rainfall in the last 21,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Elison Timm, O.

    2017-12-01

    Hawaii rainfall has a strong seasonality which has more rainfall during the winter than summer. Part of the winter rainfall is from extratropical weather disturbances. Kona lows (KL) are important contributors to the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. KL activity is found to have a strong relationship with the North Pacific climate variability. The goal of the research is to test the hypothesis that changes in the strength and position of the upper level zonal wind jet is a key driver for regional rainfall changes. The main objectives are (1) to identify the relationship between North Pacific westerly jet strength and KL activity in present day climate, (2) to test the stability of this relationship under past climatic conditions, and (3) to explore the teleconnection between Hawaii and North America. For the present-day analysis of the westerly jet, the zonal wind at 250hPa is used from ERA-interim data from 1979-2014. The potential vorticity is used as a measure of extratropical synoptic activity. The Hawaii Rainfall Index is from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii (seasonal means, 1920-2012). For the paleoclimatic study, the transient TraCE-21ka simulation is used for the zonal wind - Hawaii rainfall analysis. The results of present-day analysis show that when the jet extends farther into the eastern Pacific sector the Kona Low activity is reduced, less winter rainfall is observed over Hawaii and more rainfall over the California region. The jet position-rainfall relationship was investigated within the TrACE-21 simulation. For the TraCE-21ka dataset, there is an increasing rainfall trend from 21kBP to 14kBP; this period coincides with a gradual decrease in the strength of the westerly wind jet. The results show that the westerly jet strength has a strong influence of the Kona Low activity and the rainfall over Hawaii both in the present and the past.

  8. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-29

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  9. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-02-17

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide consise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: Distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; Natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s as well as selected National average prices; Residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; Crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and A 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree days by city.

  10. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  11. Stamena winter wheat variety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mišić Todor

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Stamena is a winter wheat variety developed at the Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops in Novi Sad, Yugoslavia. It was released by the Federal Commission for varietals Approval in 1999. Stamena was developed by crossing genetically divergent and highly productive parents Lasta and Rodna (Breeders: T. Mišić. N. Mladenov, Z. Jerković and R. Jevtić. Spike is white, smooth, awn less, medium compact with 18-21 spike lets. The grain is vitreous and dark red (Triticum aestivum L. ssp. vulgar e var. lutescens. Stamena is a medium early variety, 1 day earlier than Partizanka and 3 days earlier than Jugoslavija (Table 4. It has excellent resistance to winterkilling, as in very winter hardy Partizanka. The average stem height is 78 cm, with a good resistance to lodging. Stamena has field resistance to leaf rust (Pucce, recondita tritict, horizontal resistance, which is the type of resistance that modern wheat breeding is interested in. The resistance to stem rust (Pucce, graminis tritict is good and to powdery mildew (Erysiphegraminis tritici very good. The 1000 grain mass is about 32 g and volume grain mass 81.3 kg/hi. (Table 2. Stamena is classified in the subgroup A-l. It has excellent milling and baking quality and it belong to the 1st technological group (quality enhancer. The quantity of dry gluten is about 9%. The variety Stamena is a very productive, with the genetic potential for grain above 11 t/ha suitable for growing on fertile and less fertile soils. It has started to be grown commercially in 2000.

  12. Optimal Cross Hedging Winter Canola

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Seon-Woong; Brorsen, B. Wade; Yoon, Byung-Sam

    2014-01-01

    Winter canola in the southern Great Plains has shown large price fluctuations and there have been questions about which futures market could be used to reduce price risk. Our results indicate that the optimal futures contract to cross hedge winter canola is soybean oil futures.

  13. Exploring post-cold frontal moisture transport in an idealized extratropical cyclone study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Amanda Marie

    Moisture transport in extratropical cyclones (ETCs) has been studied in the past in the context of the warm conveyor belt (WCB), a 'conveyor belt' transferring moisture from the warm sector boundary layer to the free troposphere both eastward and poleward of the warm front. Recent research has highlighted a different, potentially important mechanism of transporting water vapor in ETCs by post-cold frontal (PCF) clouds. PCF clouds are typically boundary layer cumulus clouds located in the cold sector of an ETC that transfer moisture to the free troposphere through convective-evaporative processes. Recent studies have suggested that these PCF cumuli may vertically transport nearly equivalent amounts of moisture as the WCB. Therefore, not only are these PCF cumuli important in venting the PCF boundary layer, they also play a role in limiting the amount of moisture available for convergence in the source region of the WCB. This limitation can have important consequences for regional weather and climate through its impact on the timing and location of precipitation, the three-dimensional redistribution of water vapor, and the distribution of clouds within ETCs. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of PCF clouds in the moisture transport of an ETC, and the impacts of environmental factors such as SST and aerosol loading on this transport role. We have achieved this goal through the use of numerical simulations of such a storm system. Previous studies have utilized model simulations with relatively coarse grid resolutions and convective parameterization schemes. Here, we simulate a wintertime ETC over the Pacific Ocean using high spatial and temporal resolution, advanced microphysics and explicitly resolved convection. The results of this research demonstrate that PCF cumuli are found to vertically ventilate BL moisture over an expansive region behind the cold front. The free tropospheric moisture contents and stability profile of the cold sector exert a

  14. Microwave circulator design

    CERN Document Server

    Linkhart, Douglas K

    2014-01-01

    Circulator design has advanced significantly since the first edition of this book was published 25 years ago. The objective of this second edition is to present theory, information, and design procedures that will enable microwave engineers and technicians to design and build circulators successfully. This resource contains a discussion of the various units used in the circulator design computations, as well as covers the theory of operation. This book presents numerous applications, giving microwave engineers new ideas about how to solve problems using circulators. Design examples are provided, which demonstrate how to apply the information to real-world design tasks.

  15. Hurricane Force Winds in Explosive Maritime Extratropical Cyclones: A Modeling and Observational Study of Their Evolution and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Benjamin Scott

    Extratropical cyclones can be as powerful as tropical cyclones with winds reaching 33 m s-1 or even stronger. They can also be very large in scale, and impact life and property on the oceans as well as over the land if the storms make a landfall. Two conceptual models exist that attempt to explain how the extreme winds in the bent-back frontal zone of these cyclones occur. The first is a jet associated with the cold conveyor belt and the second is through a phenomenon known as a sting jet. Some of the objectives this thesis will address are: (1) The role of gradient wind is during the life-cycle of the cyclone, (2) how model results compare to actual observations, and (3) if the sting jet or cold conveyor belt jet are the only causes for high winds within the bent-back frontal zone, among others. This thesis will examine two case studies of extreme, extratropical cyclones that occurred over the North Atlantic Ocean. Extensive observations including dropsondes, Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) measurements from a NOAA WP-3D aircraft and satellite scatterometer measurements are used to compare with modeled results of the two case studies. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Version 3.4.1 and the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) NMM-B Launcher are used to model the two case studies and for high resolution and sensitivity testing. Trajectories calculated by the Read/Interpolate/Plot program and cross sections are additional tools used in the study. Some of the major conclusions included identifying sting jets in each storm but they were found not to be the major cause of the highest winds within the bent-back frontal zone. A secondary stream of air that accelerates from the west of the rapidly intensifying cyclone into a low-level jet located within a larger pressure gradient force and thermal gradient was found to be the major source of the high winds. It is suggested that the findings and conclusions based on the results of this

  16. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-10-04

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  17. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  18. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-13

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  19. Modelling the Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2015-04-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using 50-year, high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is successfully simulated, and the structures of the intruding subsurface Gulf of Aden intermediate water are in good agreement with summer observations in 2011. The model results suggest that the summer overturning circulation is driven by the combined effect of the shoaling of the thermocline in the Gulf of Aden resulting from remote winds in the Arabian Sea and an upward surface slope from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden set up by local surface winds in the Red Sea. For the winter overturning circulation, the climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation.

  20. Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults Expert Information from Healthcare Professionals Who Specialize in the Care of ... thick clothing. Think about getting your thermals! –Essential winter wears: hats, gloves or preferably mittens, winter coat, ...

  1. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are at increased risk for overexposure ... associated with sun exposure. "It's easy to associate winter with frostbite and windburn, but most people are ...

  2. Precipitation and circulation response to warming shaped by radiative changes of clouds and water vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Aiko; Shaw, Tiffany

    2015-04-01

    The atmospheric circulation controls how global warming will be expressed regionally, in particular by locally altering the hydrological cycle through changes in moisture transport. While climate models robustly project an increase of global-mean precipitation at a rate of 1-3% per degree warming, there is much less consensus on how the global-mean increase will be distributed regionally, and confidence in long-term projections of regional precipitation changes remains much lower than for temperature. Here, two CMIP5 aquaplanet models, MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A, and their response to a uniform 4K increase of sea-surface temperatures are compared to study how radiative changes of clouds and water vapor influence the regional response of precipitation and the circulation to global warming, and to investigate to which extent uncertainty in clouds and water vapor lead to uncertainty in the precipitation and circulation response. Using the cloud and water-vapor locking method it is shown that cloud-radiative changes dominate the response of deep-tropical precipitation and the strength of the Hadley circulation, and lead to disagreement between the two models. In MPI-ESM changes in tropical ice clouds cause a narrowing of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a strengthening of the Hadley circulation, whereas they lead to a widening of the ITCZ and a weakening of the Hadley circulation in IPSL-CM5A. Radiative changes of clouds and water vapor also impact the subtropics and extratropics. Cloud changes are found to amplify the poleward expansion of the tropical belt and the poleward shift of the extratropical jet, consistent with the fact that they stabilize the tropical atmosphere. In contrast, water vapor changes destabilize the tropical atmosphere and contract the tropical belt and jet towards the equator. Both models show the opposing impacts of cloud and water vapor changes on the jet shift, but the degree of compensation between cloud and water-vapor changes is

  3. Circulation pump mounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skalicky, A.

    1976-01-01

    The suspension is described of nuclear reactor circulating pumps enabling their dilatation with a minimum reverse force consisting of spacing rods supported with one end in the anchor joints and provided with springs and screw joints engaging the circulating pump shoes. The spacing rods are equipped with side vibration dampers anchored in the shaft side wall and on the body of the circulating pump drive body. The negative reverse force F of the spacing rods is given by the relation F=Q/l.y, where Q is the weight of the circulating pump, l is the spatial distance between the shoe joints and anchor joints, and y is the deflection of the circulating pump vertical axis from the mean equilibrium position. The described suspension is advantageous in that that the reverse force for the deflection from the mean equilibrium position is minimal, dynamic behaviour is better, and construction costs are lower compared to suspension design used so far. (J.B.)

  4. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  5. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  6. A cold pool south of Indo-Sri Lanka channel and its intrus on into the southeastern Arabian Sea during winter

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, R.R.; GirishKumar, M.S.; Ravichandran, M.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Pankajakshan, T.

    -surface circulation is more pronounced. The cooling episodes varied in number, intensity, duration and spatial extent in each winter during 1998û2006. The cooler surface waters from this MCP flow initially southwestward and are then topographically steered...

  7. Extreme multi-basin flooding linked with extra-tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Paolo; Hillier, John K.; Wilby, Robert L.; Quinn, Nevil W.; Harrigan, Shaun

    2017-11-01

    Fluvial floods are typically investigated as ‘events’ at the single basin-scale, hence flood management authorities may underestimate the threat of flooding across multiple basins driven by large-scale and nearly concurrent atmospheric event(s). We pilot a national-scale statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme multi-basin flooding (MBF) episodes, using peak river flow data for 260 basins in Great Britain (1975‑2014), a sentinel region for storms impacting northwest and central Europe. During the most widespread MBF episode, 108 basins (~46% of the study area) recorded annual maximum (AMAX) discharge within a 16 day window. Such episodes are associated with persistent cyclonic and westerly atmospheric circulations, atmospheric rivers, and precipitation falling onto previously saturated ground, leading to hydrological response times distributed, yet differentially time-lagged, wind and flood damages. These findings have implications for emergency responders, insurers and contingency planners worldwide.

  8. Monitoring the variability of sea level and surface circulation with satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkov, Denis L. "Jr"

    2004-10-01

    Variability in the ocean plays an important role in determining global weather and climate conditions. The advent of satellite altimetry has significantly facilitated the study of the variability of sea level and surface circulation. Satellites provide high-quality regular and nearly global measurements enabling us to study the oceanic variability on the spatial scales from the size of an eddy to global, and on the temporal scales from weeks to interannual and longer. This thesis demonstrates how satellite altimetry measurements can be used to study the mesoscale, seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and surface circulation. Oceanic variability at these time scales is mainly induced by the variations of heat and fresh water fluxes (buoyancy fluxes) at air-sea interface, the variations of heat and salt budget due to the advection of water masses with different properties, eddy generation mechanisms due to the instability of oceanic currents, Rossby waves, etc. It is shown how the sea level in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean was changing during the investigated time interval from 1993 to 2003. The mesoscale, seasonal and inter-annual modes of the variability are revealed, and the magnitude and relative contribution of each mode to the total variance is assessed. The inter-annual change of the sea surface height in the northern North Atlantic, measured with altimetry, is coupled with in situ observations along the transatlantic section AR7E, repeated almost every year from 1990 to 2003 in the framework of the WOCE (World Ocean Circulation Experiment) and CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability) hydrographic programs. This allowed interpreting the observed inter-annual change of sea level in terms of changes in the sea water properties and the distribution of water masses. A comparative analysis of changes observed in the extratropical North Atlantic and in the extratropical North Pacific is performed. The magnitudes, spatial patterns, and also trends of the

  9. The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munz, Philipp M.; Lückge, Andreas; Siccha, Michael; Böll, Anna; Forke, Sven; Kucera, Michal; Schulz, Hartmut

    2017-09-01

    The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last 250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years 1800, 1890 and 1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  10. Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol

  11. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  12. Ocean circulation using altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minster, Jean-Francois; Brossier, C.; Gennero, M. C.; Mazzega, P.; Remy, F.; Letraon, P. Y.; Blanc, F.

    1991-01-01

    Our group has been very actively involved in promoting satellite altimetry as a unique tool for observing ocean circulation and its variability. TOPEX/POSEIDON is particularly interesting as it is optimized for this purpose. It will probably be the first instrument really capable of observing the seasonal and interannual variability of subtropical and polar gyres and the first to eventually document the corresponding variability of their heat flux transport. The studies of these phenomena require data of the best quality, unbiased extraction of the signal, mixing of these satellite data with in situ measurements, and assimilation of the whole set into a dynamic description of ocean circulation. Our group intends to develop responses to all these requirements. We will concentrate mostly on the circulation of the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans: This will be done in close connection with other groups involved in the study of circulation of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, in the altimetry measurements (in particular, those of the tidal issue), and in the techniques of data assimilation in ocean circulation models.

  13. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown cooled the subtropical ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Stuart A; Roberts, Christopher D; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Johns, William E; Hobbs, Will; Palmer, Matthew D; Rayner, Darren; Smeed, David A; McCarthy, Gerard

    2013-12-16

    [1] Observations show that the upper 2 km of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean cooled throughout 2010 and remained cold until at least December 2011. We show that these cold anomalies are partly driven by anomalous air-sea exchange during the cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and, more surprisingly, by extreme interannual variability in the ocean's northward heat transport at 26.5°N. This cooling driven by the ocean's meridional heat transport affects deeper layers isolated from the atmosphere on annual timescales and water that is entrained into the winter mixed layer thus lowering winter sea surface temperatures. Here we connect, for the first time, variability in the northward heat transport carried by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to widespread sustained cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic, challenging the prevailing view that the ocean plays a passive role in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on monthly-to-seasonal timescales.

  14. Response of rapidly developing extratropical cyclones to sea surface temperature variations over the western Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, Hidetaka; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kato, Masaya; Shinoda, Taro

    2016-04-01

    The dynamical response of rapidly developing extratropical cyclones to sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the western Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence (WKOC) region was examined by using regional cloud-resolving simulations. This study specifically highlights an explosive cyclone that occurred in early February 2014 and includes a real SST experiment (CNTL run) and two sensitivity experiments with warm and cool SST anomalies over the WKOC region (warm and cool runs). The results derived from the CNTL run indicated that moisture supply from the ocean was enhanced when the dry air associated with the cold conveyor belt (CCB) overlapped with warm currents. Further, the evaporated moisture contributed substantially to latent heat release over the bent-back front with the aid of the CCB, leading to cyclone intensification and strengthening of the asymmetric structure around the cyclone's center. Such successive processes were more active in the warm run than in the cool run. The dominance of the zonally asymmetric structure resulted in a difference in sea level pressure around the bent-back front between the two runs. The WKOC SST variations have the potential to affect strong wind distributions along the CCB through modification of the cyclone's inner system. Additional experiments with two other cyclones showed that the cyclone response to the WKOC SST variations became evident when the CCB north of the cyclone's center overlapped with that region, confirming that the dry nature of the CCB plays an important role in latent heat release by allowing for larger moisture supply from the ocean.

  15. Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

  16. Mars: destructive and constructive processes in its crust reflecting tendencies of leveling angular momenta of tropics and extra-tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochemasov, G. G.

    2009-04-01

    Mars: destructive and constructive processes in its crust reflecting tendencies of leveling angular momenta of tropics and extra-tropics. G. Kochemasov IGEM of the Russian Academy of Sciences A globular shape of rotating celestial bodies means that their tropical and extra-tropical belts have significantly different angular momenta. But such unevenness in a single body is disturbing because it increases level of tectonic stresses and energetic state what is against natural trends for minimizing these characteristics. To level partly this inequality bodies tend to diminish radius and mass in tropics and increase them in extra-tropics. Traces of these destructive and constructive actions are fixed in planetary geospheres of different classes of celestial bodies: Sun, planets, satellites, and asteroids. The remote geologic mapping of Mars reveals these traces rather obviously. "Mysterious" contact zone of the martian lowlands and highlands with obvious traces of destruction expressed in widespread development of chaotic and fretted terrains is a good evidence that could be considered in comparison with the equatorial and tropical belts of some other planetary bodies [1]. At Earth the wide planetary long tropical zone is marked by its destruction. It is demonstrated by development of numerous islands of the Archipelago between the South-East Asia and Australia. In Africa and South America huge depressions of the Congo and Amazon Rivers develops where the Archean crust is subsided to depths of more than 2 km. In the Pacific along the equator numerous islands of Micronesia occur. Subsidence of the basaltic oceanic crust is followed by an intensive folding and faulting of basalt and sedimentary layers as a larger mass must be held by a smaller space (a planetary radius is diminished). Seismicity of the tropical zone is significantly higher than outside of it that means more intensive destruction in the crust and the upper mantle of tropics. Mantle derived diamonds are

  17. Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Hui

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

  18. IDRC Bulletin — Winter 2017

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-01-16

    Jan 16, 2018 ... In this issue, read the research results from our Safe and Inclusive Cities program and don't forget that the Joint Canada-Israel Health Research Program 2018 call is now open. IDRC Bulletin logo IDRC Bulletin — Winter 2017. Featured this month. View of Port-au-Prince in Haiti, March 30, 2016. Safe and ...

  19. Learning through a Winter's Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidotto, Kristie

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author shares her experience during the final semester of Year 11 Theatre Studies when she performed a monologue about Hermione from "The Winter's Tale". This experience was extremely significant to her because it nearly made her lose faith in one of the most important parts of her life, drama. She believes this…

  20. Winter School on Coding Theory

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 8. Winter School on Coding Theory. Information and Announcements Volume 8 Issue 8 August 2003 pp 111-111. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/08/0111-0111. Resonance ...

  1. Nuclear Winter: The Continuing Debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-23

    prospect of human annihilation. Speculation about the environmental results of a ’long darkness’ were considered by Paul Ehrlich .10 The term nuclear winter...Washington D.C., 1983 The Cold and the Dark: The World after Nuclear War, by Paul Ehrlich , et al. New York: Norton, 1984. (QH545 N83 C66 1983k Caldicott

  2. Arctic circulation regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

  3. Unmasking circulating tumor cells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swennenhuis, Joost Franciscus

    2017-01-01

    The number of Circulating Tumor Cells (CTCs) that can be isolated from blood of cancer patients is prognostic for the course of the disease. A higher number of CTCs correlates with a worse prognosis. A change from a higher number to a lower number of CTCs indicates a benefit of the current treatment

  4. Winter movement dynamics of black brant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg, Mark S.; Ward, David H.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Roser, John

    2007-01-01

    Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998–Mar 2000) using capture–recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.

  5. Wintering ecology of adult North American ospreys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washburn, Brian E.; Martell, Mark S.; Bierregaard, Richard O.; Henny, Charles J.; Dorr, Brian S.; Olexa, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    North American Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) typically migrate long distances to their wintering grounds in the tropics. Beyond the general distribution of their wintering range (i.e., the Caribbean, South America, and Central America), very little is known about the wintering ecology of these birds. We used satellite telemetry to determine the duration of wintering period, to examine the characteristics of wintering areas used by Ospreys, and to quantify space use and activity patterns of wintering Ospreys. Adult Ospreys migrated to wintering sites and exhibited high wintering site fidelity among years. Overall, Ospreys wintered on river systems (50.6%) more than on lakes (19.0%), and use of coastal areas was (30.4%) intermediate. Ospreys remained on their wintering grounds for an average of 154 d for males and 167 d for females. Locations of wintering Ospreys obtained via GPS-capable satellite telemetry suggest these birds move infrequently and their movements are very localized (i.e., 2 and 1.4 km2, respectively. Overall, our findings suggest wintering adult North American Ospreys are very sedentary, demonstrating a pattern of limited daily movements and high fidelity to a few select locations (presumably roosts). We suggest this wintering strategy might be effective for reducing the risk of mortality and maximizing energy conservation.

  6. Exceptional influenza morbidity in summer season of 2017 in Israel may predict the vaccine efficiency in the coming winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pando, Rakefet; Sharabi, Sivan; Mandelboim, Michal

    2018-03-07

    Influenza infections are the leading cause of respiratory viral infections worldwide, and are mostly common in the winter season. The seasonal influenza vaccine is currently the most effective preventive modality against influenza infection. Immediately following each winter season the World Health Organization (WHO) announces the vaccine composition for the following winter. Unexpectedly, during the summer of 2017, in Israel, we observed in hospitalized patients, an exceptionally high numbers of Influenza positive cases. The majority of the influenza B infections were caused by influenza B/Yamagata lineage, which did not circulate in Israel in the previous winter, and most of the influenza A infections were caused by influenza A/H3N2, a strain similar to the strain that circulated in Israel in the previous winter. We therefore predict that these two viruses will circulate in the coming winter of 2017/18 and that the trivalent vaccine, which includes antigenically different viruses will be inefficient. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

  8. Classification guide: Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games classification guide is designed to provide National Paralympic Committees (NPCs) and International Federations (IFs) with information about the classification policies and procedures that will apply to the Sochi 2014 Paralympic Winter Games.

  9. Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Kruschke

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Winter wind storms related to intense extra-tropical cyclones are meteorological extreme events, often with major impacts on economy and human life, especially for Europe and the mid-latitudes. Hence, skillful decadal predictions regarding the frequency of their occurrence would be of great socio-economic value. The present paper extends the study of Kruschke et al. (2014 in several aspects. First, this study is situated in a more impact oriented context by analyzing the frequency of potentially damaging wind storm events instead of targeting at cyclones as general meteorological features which was done by Kruschke et al. (2014. Second, this study incorporates more data sets by analyzing five decadal hindcast experiments – 41 annual (1961–2001 initializations integrated for ten years each – set up with different initialization strategies. However, all experiments are based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in a low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR. Differing combinations of these five experiments allow for more robust estimates of predictive skill (due to considerably larger ensemble size and systematic comparisons of the underlying initialization strategies. Third, the hindcast experiments are corrected for model bias and potential drifts over lead time by means of a novel parametric approach, accounting for non-stationary model drifts. We analyze whether skillful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased can be provided regarding winter (ONDJFM wind storm frequencies over the Northern Hemisphere (NH. Skill is assessed by using climatological probabilities and uninitialized transient simulations as reference forecasts. It is shown that forecasts of average winter wind storm frequencies for winters 2–5 and winters 2–9 are skillful over large parts of the NH. However, most of this skill is associated with external forcing from transient greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations

  10. Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fereday, D R; Maidens, A; Arribas, A; Scaife, A A; Knight, J R

    2012-01-01

    Northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 was exceptional for atmospheric circulation: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was the lowest on record for over a century. This contributed to cold conditions over large areas of Eurasia and North America. Here we use two versions of the Met Office GloSea4 seasonal forecast system to investigate the predictability of this exceptional winter. The first is the then operational version of GloSea4, which uses a low top model and successfully predicted a negative NAO in forecasts produced in September, October and November 2009. The second uses a new high top model, which better simulates sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This is particularly relevant for 2009/10 due to its unusual combination of a strong El Niño and an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase, favouring SSW development. SSWs are shown to play an influential role in surface conditions, producing a stronger sea level pressure signal and improving predictions of the 2009/10 winter. (letter)

  11. Twentieth Century Winter Changes in Southern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorgen S. Frederiksen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last sixty years, there have been large changes in the southern hemisphere winter circulation and reductions in rainfall particularly in the southern Australian region. Here we examine the corresponding changes in dynamical modes of variability ranging from storm tracks, onset-of-blocking modes, northwest cloud-band disturbances, Antarctic low-frequency modes, intraseasonal oscillations, and African easterly waves. Our study is performed using a global two-level primitive equation instability-model with reanalyzed observed July three-dimensional basic states for the periods 1949–1968, 1975–1994, and 1997–2006. We relate the reduction in the winter rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia since the mid-1970s and in south-eastern Australia since the mid-1990s to changes in growth rate and structures of leading storm track and blocking modes. We find that cyclogenesis and onset-of-blocking modes growing on the subtropical jet have significantly reduced growth rates in the latter periods. On the other hand there is a significant increase in the growth rate of northwest cloud-band modes and intraseasonal oscillation disturbances that cross Australia and are shown to be related to recent positive trends in winter rainfall over northwest Western Australia and central Australia, in general. The implications of our findings are discussed.

  12. Leadership in American Indian Communities: Winter Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metoyer, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Winter lessons, or stories told in the winter, were one of the ways in which tribal elders instructed and directed young men and women in the proper ways to assume leadership responsibilities. Winter lessons stressed the appropriate relationship between the leader and the community. The intent was to remember the power and purpose of that…

  13. Explosively developing extratropical cyclone associated with the high wind-waves along the east coast of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, Ki-Young; Choi, Jin-Yong; Park, Kwang-Soon

    2017-04-01

    An extreme extratropical cyclone struck the northern part of Korea on May 3, 2016 causing significant damage to property on the land due to extreme winds and abnormal high waves in coastal area. The meteorological composite fields for the cyclone show a strong surface wind velocity (up to 45 m s-1) during its mature phase. This study investigated the development mechanisms of an explosive cyclone through numerical simulation and sensitivity experiments using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The trigger mechanism for the explosive cyclogenesis is the strong baroclinic instability and temperature advection associated with upper-level cut-off low and the interaction of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies between the lower- and upper-level. The efficient placement of the high- and low-level jets forms a favorable condition for its development and transportation of water vapor and the instability energy into the cyclone. The sea-state wave simulation of large swell waves along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is obtained using the wave model WAVEWATCHIII (WW3) forced by the 10-m above ground level wind field from the WRF-ARW simulations. The simulation results of WW3 for the significant wave height were compared against buoy observation data at 1-h intervals. The simulated significant wave height systematically underestimated by 0.5 m. However, strong wind field generated by the cyclone is clarified as key features determining the characteristics of the high waves in terms of the temporal growth and decay patterns.

  14. Application of Cyclone Relative Approach and Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Better Understand Extratropical Cyclone Errors in Operational Models and Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xinxia

    A cyclone relative approach and an ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) were applied to explore some of the possible reasons for extratropical cyclone center mean sea level pressure errors. For the cyclone relative approach, data were extracted within a box region and saved every 6 hours. GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) control member and ensemble members forecast data were utilized in this research. Around the cyclone, errors in fields such as mean sea level pressure and precipitation rapidly increase from day 4 to day 5, and the errors of all fields examined are consistent with the overpredicted and underpredicted cyclones. For example, for an overforecast cyclone, it has more intense PV (potential vorticity) at 320K, a stronger temperature gradient on 925hPa, and greater simulated precipitation than observed, while the underpredicted cyclones have the opposite results. The day 3 precipitation errors and 925 hPa temperature gradient errors are relatively large before the cyclone errors develop, thus suggesting that moisture and latent heat and dry dynamics could contribute to cyclogenesis intensity errors. ESA accompanied with cyclone relative approach implies that moisture may contribute to the cyclogenesis error at an initial stage of cyclone development. There are also hints of upstream errors growing and moving in from ESA cases. AA possible explanation for underpredicted cyclones might be that less moisture on the warm side of cyclones leads to a weaker upper tropospheric latent heat release, and hence a less amplified PV field, and a weaker cyclone. In addition, a weaker temperature gradient at 925 hPa could also cause a weaker cyclone.

  15. How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America's Atlantic coast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.

    2018-01-01

    Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.

  16. Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Dandan; Wu, Qigang; Hu, Aixue; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Schroeder, Steven R.; Yang, Fucheng

    2018-02-01

    This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific-North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF-) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF- SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific-North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic-European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific-North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP-, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP-, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

  17. Controlled humidity gas circulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruner, S.M.

    1981-01-01

    A programmable circulator capable of regulating the humidity of a gas stream over a wide range of humidity is described. An optical dew-point hygrometer is used as a feedback element to control the addition or removal of water vapor. Typical regulation of the gas is to a dew-point temperature of +- 0.2 0 C and to an accuracy limited by the dew-point hygrometer

  18. Ocean circulation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koblinsky, C. J.

    1984-01-01

    Remotely sensed signatures of ocean surface characteristics from active and passive satellite-borne radiometers in conjunction with in situ data were utilized to examine the large scale, low frequency circulation of the world's oceans. Studies of the California Current, the Gulf of California, and the Kuroshio Extension Current in the western North Pacific were reviewed briefly. The importance of satellite oceanographic tools was emphasized.

  19. Fluid circulation control device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benard, Henri; Henocque, Jean.

    1982-01-01

    Horizontal fluid circulation control device, of the type having a pivoting flap. This device is intended for being fitted in the pipes of hydraulic installation, particularly in a bleed and venting system of a nuclear power station shifting radioactive or contaminated liquids. The characteristic of this device is the cut-out at the top of the flap to allow the air contained in the pipes to flow freely [fr

  20. Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns controlling avalanche activity in central Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Holt; Prokop, Alexander; Eckerstorfer, Markus; Hendrikx, Jordy

    2017-04-01

    Central Svalbard's avalanche activity is primarily controlled by the local and synoptic scale meteorological conditions characterizing the region's winter storms. Previous work has described Svalbard's direct-action snow climate as High-Arctic maritime based on the unique meteorological conditions and resulting snowpack stratigraphy observed in the region. To gain a better understanding of the broad-scale spatial controls on regional avalanche activity in Svalbard, this work investigates synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with observed avalanche cycles during the 2007/2008 to 2015/2016 winter seasons. We use avalanche observations systematically recorded as part of the Cryoslope Svalbard project from 2007-2010 in combination with additional observations from notable avalanche events from 2010-2016 to develop a regional avalanche cycle history. We then compare the timing of these avalanche cycles to an existing daily calendar of synoptic types and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis datasets to characterize the synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns influencing this avalanche activity. Our results indicate regional avalanche cycles are driven by cyclonic activity in the seas surrounding Svalbard under synoptic circulation patterns associated with warm air advection and moisture transport from lower latitudes to Svalbard. The character and spatial distribution of observed avalanche activity can be differentiated by atmospheric circulation type: mid-winter slushflow and wet slab avalanche cycles, for example, are typically associated with meridional southerly flow over the North Atlantic bringing warm air and heavy precipitation to Svalbard. Such analyses can provide a foundation upon which to improve the understanding of central Svalbard's snow climate to facilitate regional avalanche forecasting efforts.

  1. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  2. Picophytoplankton variability: Influence of winter convective mixing and advection in the northeastern Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemal, Suchandan; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar; Shankar, D.; Remya, R.; Roy, Rajdeep

    2018-04-01

    The deepening of mixed layer and ensuing changes in optical and physicochemical properties of euphotic zone can influence phytoplankton community dynamics in the northeastern Arabian Sea during winter monsoon. The response of picophytoplankton community to such changes during winter convective mixing is not well understood. Herein, we have compared variations in the picophytoplankton community structure during early (November-December 2012), peak (end-January 2014) and late (mid-February 2015) winter monsoon from three separate cruises in the southern northeastern Arabian Sea. The higher Synechococcus abundance owing to entrainment of nutrients in mixed layer was observed during peak winter monsoon, while the concomitant changes in nitrate concentration, light and oxygen environment restricted Prochlorococcus growth resulting in lower abundance during the same period. This highlights the diverse responses of picophytoplankton groups to physicochemical changes of water column during winter convective mixing. The divinyl chlorophyll b/a ratio (marker for Prochlorococcus ecotypes) indicated prevalence of one low-light adapted ecotype (sensitive to light shock) in sub-surface water, one high-light adapted ecotype in surface water during early winter monsoon and both disappeared during intense mixing period in peak winter monsoon. Subsequently, a distinct low-light adapted ecotype, capable to tolerate light shock, was noticed during late winter monsoon and we argue that this ecotype is introduced to southern northeastern Arabian Sea through advection from north by sub-surface circulation. The total picophytoplankton biomass available to microbial loop is restored during late winter monsoon, when stratification begins, with a higher abundance of Synechococcus and the re-occurrence of Prochlorococcus population in the region. These inferences indicate that variability in picophytoplankton community structure and their contribution to the microbial loop are driven by

  3. The latitudinal diversity gradient in South American mammals revisited using a regional analysis approach: The importance of climate at extra-tropical latitudes and history towards the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergnani, Paula Nilda; Ruggiero, Adriana

    2017-01-01

    The latitudinal diversity gradient has been considered a consequence of a shift in the impact of abiotic and biotic factors that limit species distributions from the poles to the equator, thus influencing species richness variation. It has also been considered the outcome of evolutionary processes that vary over geographical space. We used six South American mammal groups to test the association of environmental and evolutionary factors and the ecological structuring of mammal assemblages with spatial variation in taxonomic richness (TR), at a spatial resolution of 110 km x 110 km, at tropical and extra-tropical latitudes. Based on attributes that represent what mammal species do in ecosystems, we estimated ecological diversity (ED) as a mean pairwise ecological distance between all co-occurring taxa. The mean pairwise phylogenetic distance between all co-occurring taxa (AvPD) was used as an estimation of phylogenetic diversity. Geographically Weighted Regression analyses performed separately for each mammal group identified tropical and extra-tropical high R2 areas where environmental and evolutionary factors strongly accounted for richness variation. Temperature was the most important predictor of TR in high R2 areas outside the tropics, as was AvPD within the tropics. The proportion of TR variation accounted for by environment (either independently or combined with AvPD) was higher in tropical areas of high richness and low ecological diversity than in tropical areas of high richness and high ecological diversity. In conclusion, we confirmed a shift in the impact of environmental factors, mainly temperature, that best account for mammal richness variation in extra-tropical regions, whereas phylogenetic diversity best accounts for richness variation within the tropics. Environment in combination with evolutionary history explained the coexistence of a high number of ecologically similar species within the tropics. Consideration of the influence of contemporary

  4. Winter: Public Enemy #1 for Accessibility EXPLORING NEW SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Morales

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Winter is expensive. For countries situated in the northern hemisphere, closer to the north pole, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, winter requires the acquisition of special clothing, car tires, and sports equipment, snow removal or plowing from the streets, and is associated with the presence of ice patches, along with accidents and illnesses associated with cold weather. Fall-related injuries due to winter conditions have been estimated to cost the Canadian health care system $ 2.8 billion a year. However, the greatest cost snow entails every year is the social isolation of seniors as well as wheelchair and walker users. This results from the lack of accessibility, as it is difficult to circulate on snow-covered streets even for the able-bodied. Social isolation has been associated with other negative consequences such as depression and even suicide. This exploratory pilot study aimed at finding possible and feasible design solutions for improving the accessibility of sidewalks during winter conditions. For this project we used a Co-Design methodology. Stakeholders (City of Quebec representatives, designers, urban planners, occupational therapists, and adults with motor, visual and aural disabilities were invited to participate in the design process. In order to meet the objectives, two main steps were carried out: 1. Conception of the design solutions (through Co-design sessions in a Focus-group format with seniors, designers and researchers; and 2. Validation of the design solutions (consultation with experts and stakeholders. The results are a wide variety of possible and feasible solutions, including the reorganisation of the snow-removal procedure and the development of heated curb cuts. This project was funded by the City of Quebec in partnership with the Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en réadaptation et intégration sociale (CIRRIS. Ultimately, the project sought to explore possible solutions to be implemented

  5. Unstable relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian jet stream in winter and possible mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun; Zhu, Yali

    2017-12-01

    Based on long-term reanalysis datasets, this study revealed that the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significant negative during 1925-1945 and 1985-2005 (significant periods; hereafter SPs) whereas insignificant during 1900-1920 and 1955-1975 (insignificant periods; ISPs). The unstable AO-EAJS relationship might be related to the interdecadal change of AO's spatial structure. During SPs winters, anomalous positive AO events are characterized by atmospheric negative anomalies in the Arctic with two anomalous positive centers located in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific, exhibiting a quasi-barotropic structure. By contrast, the anomalous center in the North Pacific is barely observed during ISPs winters. Further analysis indicated that such interdecadal change might be attributed to change of troposphere-stratosphere coupling and the North Pacific air-sea interaction. On the one hand, anomalous AO at surface is closely related to obvious planetary waves downward from the stratosphere during SPs, which favors the subtropics-Arctic teleconnection. On the other hand, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shows warm phase during SPs, which induces larger variance of the Aleutian Low and more intensive divergence anomalies at upper level troposphere. Due to the advection of vorticity induced by stronger divergence is favorable for stronger Rossby wave source, the Rossby wave activity is much stronger and could further propagate eastward to the North Atlantic during SPs, resulting in the Pacific-Atlantic teleconnection. Such a mechanism is supported by the numerical simulations from two individual models that are perturbed by warm/cold IPO sea surface temperature anomalies.

  6. Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    2013-12-01

    I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment

  7. Different approaches to model the nearshore circulation in the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos Azevedo Correia de Souza, Joao; Powell, Brian

    2017-01-01

    The dynamical interaction between currents, bathymetry, waves, and estuarine outflow has significant impacts on the surf zone. We investigate the impacts of two strategies to include the effect of surface gravity waves on an ocean circulation model of the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii. This area provides an ideal laboratory for the development of nearshore circulation modeling systems for reef-protected coastlines. We use two numerical models for circulation and waves: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model, respectively. The circulation model is nested within larger-scale models that capture the tidal, regional, and wind-forced circulation of the Hawaiian archipelago. Two strategies are explored for circulation modeling: forcing by the output of the wave model and online, two-way coupling of the circulation and wave models. In addition, the circulation model alone provides the reference for the circulation without the effect of the waves. These strategies are applied to two experiments: (1) typical trade-wind conditions that are frequent during summer months, and (2) the arrival of a large winter swell that wraps around the island. The results show the importance of considering the effect of the waves on the circulation and, particularly, the circulation-wave coupled processes. Both approaches show a similar nearshore circulation pattern, with the presence of an offshore current in the middle beaches of Waikiki. Although the pattern of the offshore circulation remains the same, the coupled waves and circulation produce larger significant wave heights ( ≈ 10 %) and the formation of strong alongshore and cross-shore currents ( ≈ 1 m s-1).

  8. Circulation vs. climatic changes over the Czech Republic: A comprehensive study based on the COST733 database of atmospheric circulation classifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, Radan

    We have analyzed the effect of changes in the frequency of circulation types on significant seasonal trends of eight climatic variables (maximum, minimum, and average daily temperature, precipitation amount and occurrence, relative humidity, cloudiness, and sunshine duration) at 21 Czech stations in the period 1961-1998 using 24 objective and two subjective atmospheric circulation classifications collected and developed within the COST733 Action. Using two independent methods, we show that recent climatic trends can be only partly explained by changes in the frequency of circulation types. In winter, such changes in the objective catalogues explain around 30% of long-term linear temperature trends and around 50% of temperature changes that took place between the first and the second half of the study period. Changing internal properties of individual circulation types (i.e. within-type climatic changes) are responsible for a major part of the observed climatic trends in spring, summer, and autumn; but also in winter for variables other than temperature. The subjective catalogues are usually more tightly connected with the observed climatic changes than the objective ones. These results are consistent with the fact that except for winter, very few circulation types in the objective catalogues yield significant long-term trends in their seasonal occurrence. On the contrary, both used versions of the subjective Hess-Brezowsky catalogue bear a substantial proportion of significant trends in the occurrence of circulation types in all seasons. Very high variability in the results, caused both by the variability within stations and within the circulation classifications used, suggests that such a comparative approach is highly desirable in synoptic-climatological studies.

  9. World Ocean Circulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, R. Allyn

    1992-01-01

    The oceans are an equal partner with the atmosphere in the global climate system. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment is presently being implemented to improve ocean models that are useful for climate prediction both by encouraging more model development but more importantly by providing quality data sets that can be used to force or to validate such models. WOCE is the first oceanographic experiment that plans to generate and to use multiparameter global ocean data sets. In order for WOCE to succeed, oceanographers must establish and learn to use more effective methods of assembling, quality controlling, manipulating and distributing oceanographic data.

  10. Surface Ocean Circulation and Dynamics in the Philippine Archipelago Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, W.; Moore, A. M.; Levin, J.; Zhang, B.; Arango, H. G.; Curchitser, E.; di Lorenzo, E.; Gordon, A. L.; Lin, J.

    2008-12-01

    The dynamics of the seasonal surface circulation in the Philippine Archipelago (117E-128E, 0N-14N) are investigated using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the period of 2004 - March 2008. Three experiments are performed to estimate the relative importance of local, remote and tidal forcing. On annual mean, circulation in the Sulu Sea is dominated by the inflow from the South China Sea at the Mindoro and Balabac Straits, outflow into the Sulawesi Sea at the Sibutu Passage, and cyclonic circulation in the Sulu basin. A strong jet forms in the northeast Sulu Sea when currents from the Mindoro and Tablas Straits converge. Within the Archipelago, strong westward currents in the Bohol Sea carry the western Pacific (WP) Water from the Surigao Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Dipolog Strait. In the Sibuyan Sea, currents flow westward, which carry part of the WP water from the San Bernardino Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Tablas Strait. The surface circulations exhibit strong seasonal variations or reversals from winter to summer. The variations of volume transports above 40m at the Mindoro Strait, Balabac Strait and Sibutu Passage of the Sulu Sea and at the Verde Island Passage are dominated by remote forcing, although local forcing can be large sometimes. At the Tablas and Dipolog Straits, variations of transports result from both remote and local forcing. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) gyres during winter (summer) in the Sulu Sea and seasonally reversing currents in the Archipelago result mainly from local forcing. Nonlinear rectification of tides acts to reduce the mean transports at the Surigao, San Bernardino and Dipolog Straits, and it also affects the Sulu Sea circulation perhaps by tidal mixing and shifting the locations of jets and eddies.

  11. A Possible Link Between Winter Arctic Sea Ice Decline and a Collapse of the Beaufort High?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Alek A.

    2018-03-01

    A new study by Moore et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076446) highlights a collapse of the anticyclonic "Beaufort High" atmospheric circulation over the western Arctic Ocean in the winter of 2017 and an associated reversal of the sea ice drift through the southern Beaufort Sea (eastward instead of the predominantly westward circulation). The authors linked this to the loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea, anomalous warming over the region, and the intrusion of low-pressure cyclones along the eastern Arctic. In this commentary we discuss the significance of this observation, the challenges associated with understanding these possible linkages, and some of the alternative hypotheses surrounding the impacts of winter Arctic sea ice loss.

  12. The Response of the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean) to the Extreme 2016-2017 Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velaoras, Dimitris; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Kontoyiannis, Harilaos; Papageorgiou, Dimitra K.; Pavlidou, Alexandra

    2017-09-01

    The exceptionally cold December 2016 over the Aegean Sea—one of the most important dense water formation areas of the eastern Mediterranean Sea—resulted in winter heat loss comparable to the peak Eastern Mediterranean Transient winters (1992-1993). Hydrological data sampled in March/April 2017 showed that newly produced dense waters ventilated the North Aegean deep basins up to density horizons of σθ 29.35 kg/m3. The water column ventilation was unable to reach the bottom as the present upper thermohaline circulation of the eastern Mediterranean does not favor the salinity preconditioning of the Aegean Sea. In the southwest Aegean, the Myrtoan basin was ventilated by dense waters traceable farther south to the West Cretan Straits. Export of these masses from the Aegean Sea can potentially have a broader impact on the thermohaline circulation of the eastern Mediterranean.

  13. Winter therapy for the accelerators

    CERN Document Server

    Corinne Pralavorio

    2016-01-01

    Hundreds of people are hard at work during the year-end technical stop as all the accelerators are undergoing maintenance, renovation and upgrade operations in parallel.   The new beam absorber on its way to Point 2 before being lowered into the LHC tunnel for installation. The accelerator teams didn’t waste any time before starting their annual winter rejuvenation programme over the winter. At the end of November, as the LHC ion run was beginning, work got under way on the PS Booster, where operation had already stopped. On 14 December, once the whole complex had been shut down, the technical teams turned their attention to the other injectors and the LHC. The year-end technical stop (YETS) provides an opportunity to carry out maintenance work on equipment and repair any damage as well as to upgrade the machines for the upcoming runs. Numerous work projects are carried out simultaneously, so good coordination is crucial. Marzia Bernardini's team in the Enginee...

  14. Circulation of Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boitani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Since the dawn of man, contemplation of the stars has been a primary impulse in human beings, who proliferated their knowledge of the stars all over the world. Aristotle sees this as the product of primeval and perennial “wonder” which gives rise to what we call science, philosophy, and poetry. Astronomy, astrology, and star art (painting, architecture, literature, and music) go hand in hand through millennia in all cultures of the planet (and all use catasterisms to explain certain phenomena). Some of these developments are independent of each other, i.e., they take place in one culture independently of others. Some, on the other hand, are the product of the “circulation of stars.” There are two ways of looking at this. One seeks out forms, the other concentrates on the passing of specific lore from one area to another through time. The former relies on archetypes (for instance, with catasterism), the latter constitutes a historical process. In this paper I present some of the surprising ways in which the circulation of stars has occurred—from East to West, from East to the Far East, and from West to East, at times simultaneously.

  15. Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G.C.; Grieger, J.; Kew, S.F.

    2013-01-01

    For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change

  16. Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D

    2016-01-01

    Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. (letter)

  17. Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xujia; Zheng, Zhihai; Feng, Guolin

    2018-04-01

    The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16-18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10-11 days in January, April, and July and only 7-8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks.

  18. Antarctic Circumpolar Current Fronts, Winter Sea Ice and Variability: Topographic Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talley, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic winter sea ice edge is closely associated with the southernmost Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) fronts, which are guided northeastward, with their cold waters, by mid-ocean ridges in the Pacific and Atlantic, and Kerguelen Plateau in the Indian. In the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas and along Adelie Land, the southern ACC fronts are free from topographic control, and swing southwards towards Antarctica, carrying warmer waters. This suggests poleward Sverdrup transport due to wind-driven upwelling, distorted by the major topographic ridges. Hydrographic observations show stronger penetration of full-depth ACC water into the Amundsen/ Bellingshausen Seas in 2011 compared with 1992, consistent with decreasing sea ice and increasing ice-shelf melt. Winter sea ice increased where the southern ACC is topographically locked into northeastward pathways. The standing eddy pattern of ACC poleward heat flux, strengthening winds, and decadal winter sea ice changes are consistent with strengthening circulation along the southern side of the ACC.

  19. Impact of winter oceanographic conditions on zooplankton abundance in northern Adriatic with implications on Adriatic anchovy stock prognosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Romina; Supić, Nastjenjka; Lučić, Davor; Njire, Jakica

    2015-12-01

    Anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus (L.), is commercially one of the most important Adriatic small pelagic fish. Despite the prevailing oligotrophication trend in the northern Adriatic (NA), the anchovy catch increased after 2000, coinciding with an increased number of the winter type A occurrences, when Po River waters are favoured to spread across the NA. Namely, winter type A is characterised by conditions resulting with Po River waters spreading across the NA along with salinity decrease. On the contrary, in winters of type B, salinity is high. We hypothesized in previous paper, based on correlation between circulation patterns and phytoplankton with anchovy catch, that excess feeding of anchovy in this winter pre-spawning period (February) can lead to increased amounts of the anchovy eggs two months later and subsequently to the total fish catch of the same year. In this paper, we investigate in more details and based on longer time series the relation between anchovy catch and winter circulation patterns of the NA. Additionally, we studied the association between anchovy catch and zooplankton, as anchovy is predominantly zooplanktivorous. We found that zooplankton abundances in winters of A type enhance and that ciliates play an important role in the NA anchovy food web and enrichment of the region with anchovy. Finally, the results of our investigation might in time represent the basics for a sustainable anchovy management in the Adriatic Sea as they enable the development of prediction models of the anchovy stock.

  20. The climatological mean atmospheric transport under weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation climate scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erukhimova, T. [Texas A and M University, Department of Physics, College Station, TX (United States); Zhang, R. [GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bowman, K.P. [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States)

    2009-02-15

    Global atmospheric transport in a climate subject to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied by using climatological Green's functions of the mass conservation equation for a conserved, passive tracer. Two sets of Green's functions for the perturbed climate and for the present climate are evaluated from 11-year atmospheric trajectory calculations, based on 3-D winds simulated by GFDL's newly developed global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CM2.1). The Green's function analysis reveals pronounced effects of the climate change on the atmospheric transport, including seasonally modified Hadley circulation with a stronger Northern Hemisphere cell in DJF and a weaker Southern Hemisphere cell in JJA. A weakened THC is also found to enhance mass exchange rates through mixing barriers between the tropics and the two extratropical zones. The response in the tropics is not zonally symmetric. The 3-D Green's function analysis of the effect of THC weakening on transport in the tropical Pacific shows a modified Hadley cell in the eastern Pacific, confirming the results of our previous studies, and a weakening (strengthening) of the upward and eastward motion to the south (north) of the Equator in the western Pacific in the perturbed climate as compared to the present climate. (orig.)

  1. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  2. Circulation in the Arctic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, E. Peter

    2001-01-01

    Much information on processes and circulation within the Arctic Ocean has emerged from measurements made on icebreaker expeditions during the past decade. This article offers a perspective based on these measurements, summarizing new ideas regarding how water masses are formed and how they circulate. Best understood at present is the circulation of the Atlantic Layer and mid-depth waters, to depths of about 1700 m, which move in cyclonic gyres in the four major basins of the Arctic Ocean. New...

  3. Ocean General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun

    2012-09-30

    1. Definition of Subject The purpose of this text is to provide an introduction to aspects of oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), an important component of Climate System or Earth System Model (ESM). The role of the ocean in ESMs is described in Chapter XX (EDITOR: PLEASE FIND THE COUPLED CLIMATE or EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHAPTERS). The emerging need for understanding the Earth’s climate system and especially projecting its future evolution has encouraged scientists to explore the dynamical, physical, and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Understanding the role of these processes in the climate system is an interesting and challenging scientific subject. For example, a research question how much extra heat or CO2 generated by anthropogenic activities can be stored in the deep ocean is not only scientifically interesting but also important in projecting future climate of the earth. Thus, OGCMs have been developed and applied to investigate the various oceanic processes and their role in the climate system.

  4. The ocean circulation inverse problem

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wunsch, C

    1996-01-01

    .... This book addresses the problem of inferring the state of the ocean circulation, understanding it dynamically, and even forecasting it through a quantitative combination of theory and observation...

  5. Global ocean circulation by altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunsch, Carl; Haidvogel, D.

    1991-01-01

    The overall objectives of this project are to determine the general circulation of the oceans and many of its climate and biochemical consequences through the optimum use of altimetry data from TOPEX/POSEIDON and related missions. Emphasis is on the global-scale circulation, as opposed to the regional scale, but some more local studies will be carried out. Because of funding limitations, the primary initial focus will be on the time-dependent global-scale circulation rather than the mean; eventually, the mean circulation must be dealt with as well.

  6. Precipitation type transition regions in winter storms over southern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Ronald E.; King, Patrick

    1990-12-01

    Two winter storms passed through the Toronto area during November and December 1987. Information from radar, rawinsonde, and surface observations was analyzed in order to determine the kinematic flow fields and thermodynamic environment in the vicinity of the transition at the surface between snow and rain. This region was also linked to heavy precipitation and thunder. Updrafts preferentially occurred over the snow region, and deep near-0°C layers occurred in the transition region. Observations are consistent with a mesoscale circulation initiated by melting snow and possibly with the occurrence of symmetric instability. It is further suggested that large, possibly wet, snowflakes being formed within such deep near-0°C layers would contribute to the radar detection of precipitation bands near the precipitation transition region.

  7. NAO influence on extreme winter temperatures in Madrid (Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prieto, L.; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Teso, T. del [Dept. Fisica de la Tierra II, Fac. CC. Fisicas, Univ. Complutense de Madrid (Spain); Diaz, J. [Centro Universitario de Salud Publica, Univ. Autonoma de Madrid (Spain)

    2002-12-01

    Extremely cold days (ECDs), with minimum temperatures lower than -4.6 C, have been analysed for Madrid. This threshold corresponds to the 5th percentile of the period 1963-1999. Adopting a case analysis approach, five synoptic patterns have been identified that produce these extremely low temperatures. Three of them are associated with cold air flows over the Iberian Peninsula, and the other two with a lack of significant circulation over the region. A non-linear association with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) has been identified using log-linear models. The NAO positive phase leads to an increase in the winter frequency of those synoptic patterns associated with stagnant air flow over Iberia, while those characterised by cold, northern flows do not appear to be similarly influenced. (orig.)

  8. 33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY REGATTAS AND MARINE PARADES SAFETY OF LIFE ON NAVIGABLE WATERS § 100.109 Winter Harbor...

  9. Climate and smoke: an appraisal of nuclear winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, R P; Toon, O B; Ackerman, T P; Pollack, J B; Sagan, C

    1990-01-12

    The latest understanding of nuclear winter is reviewed. Considerable progress has been made in quantifying the production and injection of soot by large-scale fires, the regional and global atmospheric dispersion of the soot, and the resulting physical, environmental, and climatic perturbations. New information has been obtained from laboratory studies, field experiments, and numerical modeling on a variety of scales (plume, mesoscale, and global). For the most likely soot injections from a full-scale nuclear exchange, three-dimensional climate simulations yield midsummer land temperature decreases that average 10 degrees to 20 degrees C in northern mid-latitudes, with local cooling as large as 35 degrees C, and subfreezing summer temperatures in some regions. Anomalous atmospheric circulations caused by solar heating of soot is found to stabilize the upper atmosphere against overturning, thus increasing the soot lifetime, and to accelerate interhemispheric transport, leading to persistent effects in the Southern Hemisphere. Serious new environmental problems associated with soot injection have been identified, including disruption of monsoon precipitation and severe depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer in the Northern Hemisphere. The basic physics of nuclear winter has been reaffirmed through several authoritative international technical assessments and numerous individual scientific investigations. Remaining areas of uncertainty and research priorities are discussed in view of the latest findings.

  10. Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, C.; Brookshaw, A.; Scaife, A. A.; Bell, V. A.; Mackay, J. D.; Jackson, C. R.; Hannaford, J.; Davies, H. N.; Arribas, A.; Stanley, S.

    2015-06-01

    Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of the UK and from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place.

  11. Animals in Winter. Young Discovery Library Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sairigne, Catherine

    This book is written for children 5 through 10. Part of a series designed to develop their curiosity, fascinate them and educate them, this volume introduces the habits of a variety of animals during the winter. Topics include: (1) surviving during winter, including concepts such as migration, hibernation, and skin color change; (2) changing…

  12. How to Have a Healthy Winter | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Without a doubt, winter is here. Between the icy weather and the recent hustle and bustle of the holidays, everyone is at an increased risk of getting sick. With that in mind, Occupational Health Services has a few simple tips for staying healthy this winter.

  13. Belichten Zantedeschia in winter biedt perspectief

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwen, van P.J.; Trompert, J.P.T.

    2011-01-01

    Zantedeschia produceert in de Nederlandse winter geen bloemen. In de praktijk wordt met assimilatiebelichting wel bloei in de winter verkregen met de cultivar 'Crystal Blush'. Onderzoek door PPO laat zien welke hoeveelheid licht nodig is en dat ook gekleurde Zantedeschia's van een goede kwaliteit

  14. Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badash, Lawrence

    2001-03-01

    The nuclear winter phenomenon is used to illustrate the many paths by which scientific advice reaches decision makers in the United States government. Because the Reagan administration was hostile to the strategic policy that the scientific discovery seemed to demand, the leading proponent of nuclear winter, Carl Sagan, used his formidable talent for popularization to reach a larger audience.

  15. 43 CFR 423.37 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Winter activities. 423.37 Section 423.37 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, DEPARTMENT OF THE....37 Winter activities. (a) You must not tow persons on skis, sleds, or other sliding devices with a...

  16. 36 CFR 1002.19 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter activities. 1002.19... RECREATION § 1002.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice skating, sledding, innertubing.... (c) Failure to abide by area designations or activity restrictions established under this section is...

  17. 36 CFR 2.19 - Winter activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter activities. 2.19... RESOURCE PROTECTION, PUBLIC USE AND RECREATION § 2.19 Winter activities. (a) Skiing, snowshoeing, ice... designations or activity restrictions established under this section is prohibited. ...

  18. Chapter 7: Migration and winter ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Jean-Luc E. Cartron

    2000-01-01

    The willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii) is a Neotropical migrant that breeds in North America, but winters in Central and northern South America. Little specific information is known about migration and wintering ecology of the southwestern willow flycatcher (E. t. extimus) (Yong and Finch 1997). Our report applies principally...

  19. Interim Report 'Winter smog and traffic'.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloemen, H.; Blom, T.; Bogaard, van den C.; Boluyt, N.; Bree, van L.; Brunekreef, B.; Hoek, G.; Zee, van der S.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents a halfway score of the research project "Winter smog and Traffic", one of the themes of the research programme "Air Pollution and Health". A state of the art is presented of the health effects associated with exposure to winter smog and of the toxicological effects caused by the

  20. Nuclear winter - a calculative experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleksandrov, V.B.; Stenchikov, G.L.

    1985-01-01

    Using a hydrodynamic model of the Earth climate the climatic consequences following carbon dioxide concentration augmentation in the Earth atmosphere, effects of aerosol contamination and solar constant variation due to the use of nuclear weapon are studied. Results of studying the sensitivity of average annual climatic regime of the atmosphere and ocean general circulation to a sudde extremely strong, long-term change in optical properties of the air in the short-wave portion of the spectrum are discussed. These changes could be caused by contamination of the atmosphere with dust during a nuclear conflict and soot resulting from fires. It is shown, that after nuclear war according to practically any scenario, people who would survive the first blow will find themselves in conditions of a severe cold, darkness, absence of water, food and fuel under the effect of a powerful radiation, contaminants, diseases and under extreme pycological stress

  1. Sino-Danish Brain Circulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedssø; Du, Xiangyun; Søndergaard, Morten Karnøe

    2014-01-01

    China is faced with urgent needs to develop an economically and environmentally sustainable economy based on innovation and knowledge. Brain circulation and research and business investments from the outside are central for this development. Sino-American brain circulation and research...... and investment by overseas researchers and entrepreneurs are well described. In that case, the US is the center of global R&D and S&T. However, the brain circulation and research and investments between a small open Scandinavian economy, such as Denmark, and the huge developing economy of China are not well...... understood. In this case, Denmark is very highly developed, but a satellite in the global R&D and S&T system. With time and the growth of China as a R&D and S&T power house, both Denmark and China will benefit from brain circulation between them. Such brain circulation is likely to play a key role in flows...

  2. Multi-circulation boiler design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacKenzie, Malcolm [Babcock and Wilcox Canada Ltd (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) requires steam, which was historically supplied by once-through steam generators (OTSG). OTSGs are now often replaced by drum boilers for steam generation. Drum boilers have a higher capacity than OTSGs and produce reduced blowdown. However, the volume of contaminants in feedwater is generally significant and ASME criteria require high-quality feedwater. The current study investigates a new design for a multi-circulation boiler that would allow cleaner steam to be generated from lower quality feedwater. In drum boilers, water circulates in one zone. By analyzing circulation fundamentals (notably heat flux and void fraction), the design of multiple circulation zones was envisaged to separate the clean water from the contaminated water. Working with distinct circulation zones would allow the quality of the steam from low quality feedwater to be improved, all the while maintaining the blowdown. The new design would result in a boiler which is easier to clean and would meet ASME criteria.

  3. Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

    2014-05-01

    The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an

  4. Late Holocene anti-phase change in the East Asian summer and winter monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Shugang; Wang, Xulong; Roberts, Helen M.; Duller, Geoff A. T.; Cheng, Peng; Lu, Yanchou; An, Zhisheng

    2018-05-01

    Changes in East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity have played a pivotal role in the prosperity and decline of society in the past, and will be important for future climate scenarios. However, the phasing of changes in the intensity of East Asian summer and winter monsoons on millennial and centennial timescales during the Holocene is unclear, limiting our ability to understand the factors driving past and future changes in the monsoon system. Here, we present a high resolution (up to multidecadal) loess record for the last 3.3 ka from the southern Chinese Loess Plateau that clearly demonstrates the relationship between changes in the intensity of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons, particularly at multicentennial scales. At multimillennial scales, the East Asian summer monsoon shows a steady weakening, while the East Asian winter monsoon intensifies continuously. At multicentennial scales, a prominent ∼700-800 yr cycle in the East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity is observed, and here too the two monsoons are anti-phase. We conclude that multimillennial changes are driven by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, while multicentennial changes can be correlated with solar activity and changing strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

  5. Possible Role of Hadley Circulation Strengthening in Interdecadal Intensification of Snowfalls Over Northeastern China Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Botao; Wang, Zunya; Shi, Ying

    2017-11-01

    This article revealed that strengthening of winter Hadley circulation in the context of climate change may partially contribute to interdecadal increasing of snowfall intensity over northeastern China in recent decades. This hypothesis is well supported by the process-based linkage between Hadley circulation and atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region on the interdecadal time scale. The strengthening of winter Hadley circulation corresponds to a weakening of the Siberian high, an eastward shifting of the Aleutian low, a reduction of the East Asian trough, and anomalous southwesterly prevailing over northeastern China. These atmospheric situations weaken the East Asian winter monsoon and lead to an increase of air temperature over northeastern China. Increased local evaporation due to the increase of air temperature, concurrent with more water vapor transported from the Pacific Ocean, can significantly enhance atmospheric water vapor content in the target region. Meanwhile, the ascending of airflows is also strengthened over northeastern China. All of these provide favorable interdecadal backgrounds for the occurrence of intense snowfalls, and thus, snowfall intensity is intensified over northeastern China after the 1980s. Further analysis suggests that the circum-Pacific-like teleconnection pattern may play an important role in connecting Hadley circulation strengthening signal and atmospheric circulation anomalies favoring interdecadal intensification of snowfalls over northeastern China.

  6. How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii/IPRC, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Ding, Q. [University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Ha, K.J.; Ahn, J.B. [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kumar, A. [NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stern, B. [Princeton University, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ (United States); Alves, O. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australia Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2011-09-15

    The retrospective forecast skill of three coupled climate models (NCEP CFS, GFDL CM2.1, and CAWCR POAMA 1.5) and their multi-model ensemble (MME) is evaluated, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer upper-tropospheric circulation along with surface temperature and precipitation for the 25-year period of 1981-2005. The seasonal prediction skill for the NH 200-hPa geopotential height basically comes from the coupled models' ability in predicting the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of interannual variability, because the models cannot replicate the residual higher modes. The first two leading EOF modes of the summer 200-hPa circulation account for about 84% (35.4%) of the total variability over the NH tropics (extratropics) and offer a hint of realizable potential predictability. The MME is able to predict both spatial and temporal characteristics of the first EOF mode (EOF1) even at a 5-month lead (January initial condition) with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) skill of 0.96 and a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.62. This long-lead predictability of the EOF1 comes mainly from the prolonged impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the EOF1 tends to occur during the summer after the mature phase of ENSO. The second EOF mode (EOF2), on the other hand, is related to the developing ENSO and also the interdecadal variability of the sea surface temperature over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. The MME also captures the EOF2 at a 5-month lead with a PCC skill of 0.87 and a TCC skill of 0.67, but these skills are mainly obtained from the zonally symmetric component of the EOF2, not the prominent wavelike structure, the so-called circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. In both observation and the 1-month lead MME prediction, the first two leading modes are accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of the NH extratropics. The MME

  7. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  8. Aluminium toxicity in winter wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabó A.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aluminium is the most frequent metal of the earth crust; it occurs mainly as biologically inactive, insoluble deposit. Environmental problems, industrial contaminations and acid rains increase the soil acidity, leading to the mobilization of Al. Half of the world’s potential arable lands are acidic; therefore, Al-toxicity decreases crop productivity. Wheat is a staple food for 35% of the world population. The effects of Al-stress (0.1 mM were studied on winter wheat; seedlings were grown hydroponically, at acidic pH. After two weeks, the root weight was decreased; a significant difference was found in the P- and Ca-content. The shoot weight and element content changed slightly; Al-content in the root was one magnitude higher than in the shoot, while Al-translocation was limited. The root plasma membrane H+-ATPase has central role in the uptake processes; Al-stress increased the Mg2+-ATPase activity of the microsomal fraction.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Winter and Spring Runoff and Recharge in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, E. A.; Potter, K. W.

    2011-12-01

    Our research seeks to quantify the impacts of warming winter temperatures and increased winter precipitation on water resources in Wisconsin. We are currently working to calibrate a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Black Earth Creek Watershed, and will be using a newly-created frost module to examine the impacts of warming winter temperatures on winter and spring infiltration. As a class 1 trout stream, Black Earth Creek is of particular interest as a sensitive and economically important natural resource. Research carried out over 2010 utilized a one-dimensional soil model (Simultaneous Heat and Water, or SHAW) that simulates heat and water fluxes as well as frost processes. This model was driven by climate data obtained from a set of statistically-downscaled and de-biased General Circulation Model (GCM) data for historic and projected future for the years 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. This research suggested that warming temperatures and reduced snow cover, along with a projected increase in winter precipitation, would lead to decreased soil frost formation and a commensurate increase in winter and spring infiltration and recharge. The one-dimensional structure of the model, however, made it difficult to calibrate at the landscape scale, as it is fundamentally unable to replicate the complex spatial processes that are critically important to hydrologic response. We hope that the PRMS model, driven with the same modeled climatic data, will be able to confirm the results of our SHAW modeling; namely that winter and spring recharge will increase significantly in a warming climate. Such an increase in recharge could have profound impacts on Wisconsin fisheries, agriculture, and development.

  10. Hydrography and circulation of the Bay of Bengal during early winter, 1983

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suryanarayana, A.; Murty, V.S.N.; Rao, D.P.

    flowing eastern boundary current from north of 8 degrees N west of the Andaman-Nicobar Islands and, to its west, a large cyclonic gyre between 19 degrees and 13 degrees N. The wind stress curl for November suggests that this gyre is primarily wind driven...

  11. Time variations of the effects of circulation variability modes on European temperature and precipitation in winter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Huth, Radan

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 2 (2008), s. 139-158 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/05/2282; GA AV ČR IAA300420506 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : temperature * precipitation * modes of variability * time variations * Euro-Atlantic sector Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.971, year: 2008

  12. Circulation changes in the winter lower atmosphere and long-lasting solar/geomagnetic activity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bochníček, Josef; Davídkovová, Hana; Hejda, Pavel; Huth, Radan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 12 (2012), s. 1719-1726 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420805; GA MŠk LD12053; GA MŠk OC09070 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : magnetospheric physics * meteorology and atmospheric dynamics * solar physics, astrophysics and astronomy Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography; DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology (UFA-U) Impact factor: 1.518, year: 2012

  13. Interdecadal Variability of Winter Precipitation in Northwest China and Its Association with the North Atlantic SST Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liantong, Zhou

    2017-04-01

    Winter precipitation in Northwest China experienced an obvious interdecadal increase around 1987. Consistent increase in winter precipitation occurred in Middle Asia. The present study investigates associated changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). Analyses show that winter water vapor flux and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Eurasia and SST in the North Atlantic Ocean were very different before and after 1987. During 1987-2008, a significant enhancement of tropospheric moisture convergence and ascending motion was observed over Northwest China and Middle Asia. This contributed to the increase of winter precipitation in Northwest China and Middle Asia. The wind difference field before and after 1986/87 features cyclones over Middle Asia and northern Atlantic Ocean and anticyclones over East Asia and southern Europe-northern Africa, signifying an obvious change in the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern over middle latitudes of Eurasia. The results indicate that the Middle Asia and Northwest China were under the influence of enhanced westerlies from the North Atlantic Ocean that strengthened the water vapor transport to Middle Asia and Northwest China after 1987. Moreover, the interdecadal variability in the EU pattern is associated with the SST increase in the North Atlantic Ocean. Thus, the North Atlantic SST change is likely an important reason for the winter precipitation increase in Middle Asia and Northwest China.

  14. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hein

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

  15. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hein

    Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

  16. Half a Century of Schladming Winter Schools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pietschmann, H.

    2012-01-01

    The Schladming Winter Schools have started as early as in 1962. Over the times the yearly Schools have closely followed the actual developments in nuclear, particle, or more generally, in theoretical physics. Several new achievements have first been dealt with in length in the lectures at the Schladming Winter School. It has seen very prominent lecturers, among them a series of Nobel laureates (some of them reporting on their works even before they got their Nobel prizes). I will try to highlight the role of the Schladming Winter Schools in pro- mulgating new developments of theoretical physics in depth at the lectures given over the past 50 years. (author)

  17. Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Bo; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Ren, Hong-Li; Liu, Ying; Eade, Rosie

    2017-07-01

    Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we demonstrate prediction skill of southern China winter precipitation by three operational seasonal prediction models: the operational Global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1m). The correlation scores reach 0.76 and 0.67 in GloSea5 and CFSv2, respectively; and the amplitude of the ensemble mean forecast signal is comparable to the observed variations. The skilful predictions in GloSea5 and CFSv2 mainly benefit from the successful representation of the observed ENSO teleconnection. El Niño weakens the Walker circulation and leads to the strengthening of the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific. The anti-cyclone then induces anomalous northward flow over the South China Sea and brings water vapor to southern China, resulting in more precipitation. This teleconnection pattern is too weak in BCC-CSM1.1m, which explains its low skill (0.13). Whereas the most skilful forecast system is also able to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean on southern China precipitation via changes in southwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, we examine the real-time forecast for 2015/16 winter when a strong El Niño event led to the highest rainfall over southern China in recent decades. We find that the GloSea5 system gave good advice as it produced the third wettest southern China in the hindcast, but underestimated the observed amplitude. This is likely due to the underestimation of the Siberian High strength in 2015/2016 winter, which has driven strong convergence over southern China. We conclude that some current seasonal forecast systems can give useful warning of impending extremes. However, there is still need for further model improvement to fully represent the complex

  18. A change in the relationship between tropical central Pacific SST variability and the extratropical atmosphere around 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jin-Yi; Kim, Seon Tae; Lu, Mong-Ming

    2012-01-01

    A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) after 1990. Only during the period after 1990 can the NPO excite large SST variability in the tropical central Pacific. Related to this change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST anomalies tend to spread from the eastern to central tropical Pacific before 1990 in a pattern resembling that associated with the Eastern Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, but are more closely connected to SST variability in the subtropical north Pacific after 1990 with a pattern resembling that of the Central Pacific (CP) type of ENSO. This study concludes that the increased influence of the NPO on the tropical Pacific is a likely reason for the increasing occurrence of the CP type of ENSO since 1990. An analysis of the mean atmospheric circulation during these two periods suggests that the increased NPO influence is associated with a strengthening Hadley circulation after 1990. (letter)

  19. Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  20. Habitat characteristics of wintering Wood Warbler Phylloscopus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Habitat characteristics of wintering Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix in the Centre Region of Cameroon: conservation implications. Taku Awa II, Tsi A Evaristus, Robin C Whytock, Tsetagho Guilain, John Mallord ...

  1. VT Mean Winter Precipitation - 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) ClimatePrecip_PRECIPW7100 includes mean winter precipitation data (October through March) for Vermont (1971-2000). It's a raster dataset derived...

  2. Winter cooling in the northern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Prasad, T.G.

    The upper thermo-haline structure and the surface meteorological parameters of the central and eastern Arabian Sea during the inter-monsoon (April-May, 1994) and winter monsoon (February-March, 1995) periods, were analysed to understand physical...

  3. Overview of climatic effects of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.; Malone, R.C.

    1985-01-01

    A general description of the climatic effects of a nuclear war are presented. This paper offers a short history of the subject, a discussion of relevant parameters and physical processes, and a description of plausible nuclear winter scenario. 9 refs

  4. Circulation of avian influenza viruses in wild birds in Inner Niger Delta, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappelle, Julien; Servan de Almeida, Renata; Fofana, Bouba; Dakouo, Martin; Balança, Gilles; Gil, Patricia; Albina, Emmanuel; Gaidet, Nicolas

    2012-07-01

    Avian influenza viruses (AIV) have been detected in wild birds in West Africa during the northern winter, but no information is available on a potential year-round circulation of AIV in West Africa. Such year-round circulation would allow reassortment opportunities between strains circulating in Afro-tropical birds and strains imported by migratory birds wintering in West Africa. A 2-year longitudinal survey was conducted in the largest continental wetland of West Africa, the Inner Niger Delta in Mali, to determine the year-round circulation of AIV in wild birds. Avian influenza virus RNA was detected during all periods of the year. Very low prevalence was detected during the absence of the migratory wild birds. However, a year-round circulation of AIV seems possible in West Africa, as shown in other African regions. West Africa may hence be another potential site of reassortment between AIV strains originating from both Afro-tropical and Eurasian regions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

    2018-03-01

    Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

  6. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert)

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  7. Coming to grips with nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherr, S.J.

    1985-01-01

    This editorial examines the politics related to the concept of nuclear winter which is a term used to describe temperature changes brought on by the injection of smoke into the atmosphere by the massive fires set off by nuclear explosions. The climate change alone could cause crop failures and lead to massive starvation. The author suggests that the prospect of a nuclear winter should be a deterrent to any nuclear exchange

  8. Wet winter pore pressures in railway embankments

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, Kevin M; Smethurst, Joel A; Powrie, William; O'Brien, Anthony S

    2013-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the influence of extreme wet winter weather on pore water pressures within clay fill railway embankments, using field monitoring data and numerical modelling. Piezometer readings taken across the London Underground Ltd network following the wet winter of 2000/2001 were examined, and showed occurrences of hydrostatic pore water pressure within embankments but also many readings below this. A correlation was found between the maximum pore water pressures and the permeabi...

  9. Change in the circulation regime in the stratified saline Lake Shira (Siberia, Republic of Khakassia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belolipetskii, V. M.; Degermendzhi, A. G.; Genova, S. N.; Rogozin, D. Y.

    2017-06-01

    The in-situ data on the vertical structure and stability of the vertical stratification of saline Lake Shira over the past decade (2007-2015) are analyzed. Simplified mathematical models have shown that strong wind in the autumn of 2014 together with rather thick ice in the winter of 2015 caused a change in the circulation regime of this water reservoir from meromictic (incomplete mixing) to holomictic (compete mixing). Based on the results obtained, a circulation regime for deep saline lakes located in the continental climate zone, in particular, in the arid zones of Southern Siberia (Khakassia, Transbaikal, and Altai) can be predicted under various climate scenarios of the future.

  10. Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Nino Modoki and El Nino events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng, Hengyi; Behera, Swadhin K. [Climate Variations Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [Climate Variations Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)]|[University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Sciences, Tokyo (Japan)

    2009-04-15

    Present work compares impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on anomalous climate in the Pacific rim during boreal winters of 1979-2005. El Nino Modoki (El Nino) is associated with tripole (dipole) patterns in anomalies of sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-level divergent wind in the tropical Pacific, which are related to multiple 'boomerangs' of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Pacific. Zonal and meridional extents of those 'boomerangs' reflect their independent influences, which are seen from lower latitudes in the west to higher latitudes in the east. In the central Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropics to higher latitudes during El Nino Modoki owing to displacement of the wet 'boomerang' arms more poleward toward east. Discontinuities at outer 'boomerang' arms manifest intense interactions between tropical and subtropical/extratropical systems. The Pacific/North American pattern and related climate anomalies in North America found in earlier studies are modified in very different ways by the two phenomena. The seesaw with the dry north and the wet south in the western USA is more likely to occur during El Nino Modoki, while much of the western USA is wet during El Nino. The moisture to the southwestern USA is transported from the northward shifted ITCZ during El Nino Modoki, while it is carried by the storms traveling along the southerly shifted polar front jet during El Nino. The East Asian winter monsoon related anticyclone is over the South China Sea during El Nino Modoki as compared to its position over the Philippine Sea during El Nino, causing opposite precipitation anomalies in the southern East Asia between the two phenomena. (orig.)

  11. Influence of landfast ice on the hydrography and circulation of the Baltic Sea coastal zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioanna Merkouriadi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The influence of landfast ice on hydrography and circulation is examined inSantala Bay, adjacent to the Hanko Peninsula, Gulf of Finland. Three-dimensionalelectromagnetic current meters and conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD sensorswere deployed in winters 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 during the Finnish-Japanese"Hanko 9012" experiment. In each winter, data collection started one month beforethe initial ice formation and lasted until one month after the ice had meltedcompletely. Temperature and salinity are compared with long-term data from theTvärminne Zoological Station, also located on the Hanko Peninsula. Thewater temperature was 2°C less than the long-term average. Iceformation and melting show up in the salinity evolution of the water body,which makes salinity a good indicator of ice formation and breakup in SantalaBay. The circulation under the ice became weaker by almost 1 cm s-1.

  12. Arctic Ocean surface geostrophic circulation 2003–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. W. K. Armitage

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring the surface circulation of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean is generally limited in space, time or both. We present a new 12-year record of geostrophic currents at monthly resolution in the ice-covered and ice-free Arctic Ocean derived from satellite radar altimetry and characterise their seasonal to decadal variability from 2003 to 2014, a period of rapid environmental change in the Arctic. Geostrophic currents around the Arctic basin increased in the late 2000s, with the largest increases observed in summer. Currents in the southeastern Beaufort Gyre accelerated in late 2007 with higher current speeds sustained until 2011, after which they decreased to speeds representative of the period 2003–2006. The strength of the northwestward current in the southwest Beaufort Gyre more than doubled between 2003 and 2014. This pattern of changing currents is linked to shifting of the gyre circulation to the northwest during the time period. The Beaufort Gyre circulation and Fram Strait current are strongest in winter, modulated by the seasonal strength of the atmospheric circulation. We find high eddy kinetic energy (EKE congruent with features of the seafloor bathymetry that are greater in winter than summer, and estimates of EKE and eddy diffusivity in the Beaufort Sea are consistent with those predicted from theoretical considerations. The variability of Arctic Ocean geostrophic circulation highlights the interplay between seasonally variable atmospheric forcing and ice conditions, on a backdrop of long-term changes to the Arctic sea ice–ocean system. Studies point to various mechanisms influencing the observed increase in Arctic Ocean surface stress, and hence geostrophic currents, in the 2000s – e.g. decreased ice concentration/thickness, changing atmospheric forcing, changing ice pack morphology; however, more work is needed to refine the representation of atmosphere–ice–ocean coupling in models before we can fully

  13. Observations of the ultra-fast Kelvin wave using meteor radar over a Brazilian extra-tropical station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guharay, Amitava; Prado Batista, Paulo; Clemesha, Barclay Robert

    2013-04-01

    Characteristics of the equatorial 3.5-day ultra-fast Kelvin (UKF) wave are investigated with four year meteor radar wind observations over Cachoeira Paulista (22.7S, 45W). UFK signature manifests as discrete bursts spanning over various times of the year with generally less amplitude during fall equinox and early winter span. Daily as well as seasonal mean amplitude of the UFK wave is found to be sufficiently smaller than that observed previously from equatorial stations. Estimated vertical wavelength of the UFK wave comes out to be larger than 80 km. Comparison of present results with another Brazilian equatorial station exhibits latitudinal invariance of the wave as well as transient local dynamical influence to its variability. High zonal acceleration caused by momentum flux convergence due to the UFK wave just after equinoxes is supposed to be responsible for driving westerly phase of the mean zonal wind immediately after equinoxes and hence the mesospheric semiannual oscillation. There is a clear signature of modulation of the UFK wave amplitude by various harmonics of the annual oscillation.

  14. Study of the ultra-fast Kelvin wave with meteor radar observations over a Brazilian extra-tropical station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guharay, A.; Batista, P. P.; Clemesha, B. R.

    2013-09-01

    Characteristics of the 3.5-day ultra-fast Kelvin (UKF) wave are investigated with 4 years of meteor radar wind observations over Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45°W). The UFK signature manifests itself as discrete bursts spanning over various times of the year with generally less amplitude during fall equinox and early winter. Daily as well as seasonal mean amplitude of the UFK component is found to be considerably smaller than that observed previously from equatorial stations. Estimated vertical wavelengths of the UFK wave come out to be larger than 40 km. Comparison of the present results with another Brazilian equatorial station implies latitudinal invariance of the wave as well as transient local dynamical influence to its variability. High zonal acceleration caused by momentum flux convergence due to the UFK wave just after equinoxes is believed to be responsible for driving the westerly phase of the mean zonal wind immediately after the equinoxes and hence the mesospheric semiannual oscillation to some extent. There is a clear signature of modulation of the UFK wave amplitude by various harmonics of the annual oscillation.

  15. Arctic Sea-ice and Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherchi, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past half century the Arctic has warmed at about twice the global rate (Arctic amplification) with important and worrying sea-ice declining in the region (around 4% per decade in the year but more than 10% per decade in the summer). As the climate continues to warm further reduction are expected: coupled model projections suggests that perennial Arctic sea-ice could disappear within the next few decades. Because of the importance of the sea-ice in modulating the energy in the climate system and the associated possible effects on the global atmospheric circulation, the understanding and quantification of the sea-ice changes is crucial for climate predictions. Of particular interest is the understanding of the effects of Arctic sea-ice reductions on the winter climate of Europe, North America and parts of Asia. The ocean-atmosphere coupling has been found important for the simulation of the response to sea-ice but the climatological background state could be crucial as well, as it may play a key role in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response to reduced Arctic sea-ice. Still there is no consensus even on the sign of the NAO response in different models and experimental setup. With a statistical approach we intend to investigate the relationship between the Arctic sea-ice and the main circulation patterns of the Northern Hemisphere winter (i.e. NAO, Arctic Oscillation and Pacific North American pattern). Lagged-time analyses as well as simultaneous teleconnections are considered to explore the influence of the minimum coverage in the Arctic (September) on the winter following, but also the effects of the main winter regimes on the Arctic sea-ice. A suite of atmospheric model experiments with prescribed sea-ice together with coupled model experiments complement the finding from atmospheric reanalysis and observations. Implications and aspects of predictability for winter sea-ice conditions and related atmospheric circulation are discussed.

  16. Winter barley mutants created in the Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zayats, O.M.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Increasing fodder and protein production is one of the objectives of the development of agriculture in Ukraine. Higher productivity of fodder crops, due to new highly productive varieties, is the means to meet this aim. Winter barley is an important crop for fodder purposes. The climate of the Ukraine is favourable for growing this crop. The areas used for the growth of winter barley are however, small (500,000-550,000 ha) and there is a shortage of good quality varieties. The main aim of the work was therefore to create new varieties of highly productive winter barley, of good quality. The new varieties and mutation lines of winter barley were created under the influence of water solutions of N-nitroso-N-methylurea (NMH - 0,012, 0,005%), N-nitroso-N-ethylurea (NEH - 0,05; 0.025; 0,012%) ethyleneimine (EI - 0,02; 0,01; 0,005%) on winter barley seeds of the varieties of local and foreign selections. On the basis of many years of investigations (1984-94) the following mutations were described: hard-grained, winter-hardiness, earliness, middle-maturity, late-maturity, wide and large leaves, narrow leaves, multinodal, great number of leaves, great number of flowers, strong stem (lodging resistant), tallness, semi-dwarfness, dwarfness, and high productivity. Particularly valuable are mutants with high productivity of green bulk. Their potential yield is 70 t/ha. As a result of the work two varieties of winter barley 'Shyrokolysty' and 'Kormovy' were released into the State register of plant varieties of the Ukraine. The other valuable mutant genotypes are used in cross breeding programmes. (author)

  17. The Southern Hemisphere circulation during the FGGE and its representativeness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, K. E.; Christy, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    An analysis of the global redistribution of mass during the FGGE year indicates that the global circulation was highly anomalous in several respects, especially from April to July 1979. For the 56 to year period 1924-1980, sea-level pressures over the northern hemisphere during the FGGE year were second highest in spring and highest in summer. In April and June, the anomalies were 1-in-100-year events. At the same time, sea-level pressure deficits and an exceptionally deep circumpolar trough were recorded over the Southern Hemisphere. Such compensation between the hemispheres, through the constraint of conservation of mass, provides support for the highly typical nature of the circulation analyzed to exist over the Southern Hemisphere throughout the FGGE year. The Southern Hemisphere circulation was characterized by an exceptionally deep circumpolar trough, an increase in westerlies from 40 deg to 70 deg S, and a decrease in westerlies to the north. In winter, the subtropical jet was weaker and the polar jet stronger than normal, so that a pronounced double jet structure prevailed. In summer, the jet was shifted south by 3 deg latitude. A southward shift in storm tracks accompanied these changes year round in a manner consistent with theory.

  18. Atmospheric circulation variability at the Southern Hemisphere and its association with the ENSO cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    as the following coupled consequence of anomalies: discharge of cold air from Antarctica - intensification of the extra-tropical cyclogenesis at the Great Western Transfer - strengthening of the conclusive anticyclone at the cyclonic series rear on the polar front - regeneration of subtropical anticyclone - intensification of the tropical trade winds circulation - amplification of the South-Pacific Convergence Zone, appearing in activation of tropical cyclogenesis.

  19. Metabolic response to lipid infusion in fasting winter-acclimatized king penguin chicks (Aptenodytes patagonicus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teulier, Loïc; Tornos, Jérémy; Rouanet, Jean-Louis; Rey, Benjamin; Roussel, Damien

    2013-05-01

    During the cold austral winter, king penguin chicks are infrequently fed by their parents and thus experience severe nutritional deprivation under harsh environmental conditions. These energetic constraints lead to a range of energy sparing mechanisms balanced by the maintenance of efficient thermogenic processes. The present work investigated whether the high thermogenic capacities exhibited by winter-acclimatized king penguin chicks could be related to an increase in lipid substrate supply and oxidation in skeletal muscle, the main site of thermogenesis in birds. To test this hypothesis, we examined i) the effect of an experimental rise in plasma triglyceride on the whole metabolic rate in winter-acclimatized (WA) and de-acclimatized king penguin chicks kept at thermoneutrality (TN), and ii) investigated the fuel preference of muscle mitochondria. In vivo, a perfusion of a lipid emulsion induced a small 10% increase of metabolic rate in WA chicks but not in TN group. In vitro, the oxidation rate of muscle mitochondria respiring on lipid-derived substrate was +40% higher in WA chicks than in TN, while no differences were found between groups when mitochondria oxidized carbohydrate-derived substrate or succinate. Despite an enhanced fuel selection towards lipid oxidation in skeletal muscle, a rise of circulating lipids per se was not sufficient to fully unravel the thermogenic capacity of winter-acclimatized king penguin chicks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The Invertibility, Explicit Determinants, and Inverses of Circulant and Left Circulant and g-Circulant Matrices Involving Any Continuous Fibonacci and Lucas Numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaolin Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Circulant matrices play an important role in solving delay differential equations. In this paper, circulant type matrices including the circulant and left circulant and g-circulant matrices with any continuous Fibonacci and Lucas numbers are considered. Firstly, the invertibility of the circulant matrix is discussed and the explicit determinant and the inverse matrices by constructing the transformation matrices are presented. Furthermore, the invertibility of the left circulant and g-circulant matrices is also studied. We obtain the explicit determinants and the inverse matrices of the left circulant and g-circulant matrices by utilizing the relationship between left circulant, g-circulant matrices and circulant matrix, respectively.

  1. Numerical Model Simulation of Offshore Flow during the Winter Season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolo, Maria Cintia

    Because of the step function variability of heat and moisture flux in coastal zones, adequate descriptive models of mesoscale coastal circulation and weather patterns demand high spatial resolution in the analysis of wind, temperature and moisture patterns. To obtain realistic concepts of offshore flow the sparse offshore data networks need to be supplemented by mesoscale numerical models. The problems associated with the modeling of offshore flow across the east coast of the United States during the winter season have been investigated with a simple two dimensional numerical model of the planetary boundary layer. The model has two predictive equations for the potential temperature and humidity fields. A diagnostic equation based upon observed data is used to determine wind velocities. At each horizontal step the wind was integrated with height, and the equations for the temperature and humidity were solved for each level. A second order model using the Dufort-Frankel finite difference scheme with two vertical grid spacing and eddy coefficient formulations was applied to actual cases of offshore winter flow. The results of the model were compared with measurements at anemometer level at offshore stations. Different flux formulations were tested. Key problems related to the use of the Dufort-Frankel scheme were indicated. Problems associated with the use of a K-theory profile for the turbulent fluxes in the marine planetary boundary layer were isolated. The initial air-sea temperature difference and the K-theory formulations were crucial to the computational stability of the model as well as the resolution of the model, even after the stability problems were solved. A bulk aerodynamic formulation produced better results in the marine surface layer, however when merged with K-theory for the rest of the planetary boundary layer disastrous results can occur. A first order model with a similar resolution was applied to the same situation and showed superior results.

  2. Flow variability within the Alaska Coastal Current in winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarosz, Ewa; Wang, David; Wijesekera, Hemantha; Scott Pegau, W.; Moum, James N.

    2017-05-01

    Coastal circulation off Kayak Island in the northern Gulf of Alaska was explored in wintertime (October 2012 to March 2013) by deploying nine moorings within the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). Hydrographic, bottom-pressure, and velocity observations depicted well the winter variability of the ACC. Atmospheric observations showed a net loss of heat, 30 W m-2 or more, from the ocean to the atmosphere and indicated that storms with downwelling-favorable winds over 10 m s-1 frequently passed over the area. Due to vigorous mixing during storms, the waters were well-mixed or weakly stratified whereas bottom-pressure anomalies were mainly related to surface-elevation fluctuations and indicated that there was also a cross-shelf surface-elevation gradient. Current observations showed along-shelf nearly barotropic subtidal flow of 40 cm s-1 or more throughout the water column. They also indicated that along-shelf flow was primarily driven by the cross-shelf pressure gradient resulting from the cross-shelf surface-elevation gradient and not by wind stress. Analyses suggested that flow dynamics within the ACC in winter were well-described by vertically averaged momentum equations and showed a dominance of the cross-shelf pressure gradient that was mainly balanced by the Coriolis term. Observations also showed that when winds relaxed, cold low-salinity waters moved offshore and stratification was reestablished. Consequently, near-shore waters were less dense, i.e., cooler and fresher than offshore waters resulting in the cross-shelf density gradient that may have contributed to the along-shelf flow by generating near-surface currents of ˜20 cm s-1.

  3. Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergjord Olsen, A.K.; Persson, T.; Wit, de A.; Nkurunziza, L.; Sindhøj, E.; Eckersten, H.

    2018-01-01

    Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this

  4. Key areas for wintering North American herons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikuska, T.; Kushlan, J.A.; Hartley, S.

    1998-01-01

    Nearly all North American heron populations are migratory, but details of where they winter are little known. Locations where North American herons winter were identified using banding recovery data. North American herons winter from Canada through northern South America but especially in eastern North America south of New York, Florida, California, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico and Cuba, these areas accounting for 63% of winter recoveries. We identified regions where recoveries for various species clustered as 'key areas.' These forty-three areas constitute a network of areas that hold sites that likely are important to wintering herons. The relative importance of each area and site within the network must be evaluated by further on the ground inventory. Because of biases inherent in the available data, these hypothesized key areas are indicative rather than exhaustive. As a first cut, this network of areas can serve to inform further inventory activities and can provide an initial basis to begin planning for the year-round conservation of North American heron populations.

  5. The interdecadal change of the leading mode of the winter precipitation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jingwen; Jia, Xiaojing; Lin, Hai

    2016-10-01

    The interdecadal change of the leading mode of the mean winter precipitation over China has been investigated using observational data for the period from 1960 to 2012. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode (EOF1) of the winter precipitation over China displays a mono-sign pattern over southeastern China, accounting for 49.7 % of the total variance in the precipitation. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can impact EOF1. A positive (negative) EOF1 is accompanied by warm (cold) ENSO events and weak (strong) EAWM, and the latters can cause anomalous southerlies (northerlies) along the coast of southeastern China, accompanied by the transportation of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea favoring a wet (dry) winter over southeastern China. An abrupt transition of the EOF1 is observed around the mid-1980s. Therefore, the data are divided into two subperiods, i.e., 1960-1987 (P1) and 1988-2009 (P2). Significant differences in the large scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EOF1 during these two subperiods are observed. EOF1 is closely related to the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation in P1, while its relationship to the tropics obviously increases during P2. The partial regression analysis results show that the interdecadal change of EOF1 is caused by both the interdecadal changes of the EAWM and ENSO around the mid-1980s. In P1, the lower-level anomalous southerlies along the coastal southeastern China accompanied by water vapor transportation that causes above-average precipitation are related to an anti-cyclonic system centered over the mid-latitude western North Pacific associated with EAWM. In P2, the influence of the EAWM is weaker, and the southerly anomaly over the coastal southeastern China is mainly caused by the anticyclone over Philippines, which is related to the ENSO.

  6. Contribution of allelopathy and competition to weed suppression by winter wheat, triticale and winter rye

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiss, Antje; Fomsgaard, Inge S.; Mathiassen, Solvejg Kopp

    of competitive traits, such as early vigour, crop height and leaf area index and presence of phytotoxic compounds of the group of benzoxazinoids to weed suppression. Four cultivars of each of the winter cereals wheat, triticale and rye were grown in field experiments at two locations. Soil samples were taken...... 2016. Competitive traits were measured throughout the growing season. Partial least squares regression with weed biomass as response variable was used for modelling. Competitive traits, as well as benzoxazinoid concentrations contributed significantly to the models on winter wheat, winter triticale...... and winter rye data and explained 63, 69 and 58% of the variance in weed biomass in the first two components, respectively. Consequently, it can be concluded that competitive, as well as allelopathic traits, contributed significantly to weed suppressive outcome in winter cereals. This knowledge...

  7. Root development of fodder radish and winter wheat before winter in relation to uptake of nitrogen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wahlström, Ellen Margrethe; Hansen, Elly Møller; Mandel, A.

    2015-01-01

    The nitrate (N) present in soil at the end of autumn is prone to leach during winter and spring in temperate climates if not taken up by plants. In Denmark catch crops are used as a regulatory tool to reduce N leaching and therefore a shift from winter cereals to spring cereals with catch crops has...... occurred. Quantitative data is missing on N leaching of a catch crop compared to a winter cereal in a conventional cereal-based cropping system. The aim of the study was to investigate whether fodder radish (Raphanus sativus L.) (FR) would be more efficient than winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (WW......) at depleting the soil of mineral nitrogen (Nmin) before winter. A secondary aim was to study the agreement between three different root measuring methods: root wash (RW), core break (CB) and minirhizotron (MR). The third aim of the was to correlate the N uptake of FR and WW with RLD. An experiment was made...

  8. Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

    2013-01-01

    We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

  9. Winter refuge for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes in Hanoi during Winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsunoda, Takashi; Cuong, Tran Chi; Dong, Tran Duc; Yen, Nguyen Thi; Le, Nguyen Hoang; Phong, Tran Vu; Minakawa, Noboru

    2014-01-01

    Dengue occurs throughout the year in Hanoi, Vietnam, despite winter low temperatures density drastically decreased in winter. Aedes aegypti preferred concrete tanks and this preference increased in winter. Even in winter, the lowest water temperature found in concrete tanks was >14°C, exceeding the developmental zero point of Ae. aegypti. Although jars, drums and concrete tanks were the dominant containers previously (1994-97) in Hanoi, currently the percentage of residences with concrete tanks was still high while jars and drums were quite low. Our study showed that concrete tanks with broken lids allowing mosquitoes access were important winter refuge for Ae. aegypti. We also indicate a concern about concrete tanks serving as foci for Ae. aegypti to expand their distribution in cooler regions.

  10. Dust emissions in the West African heat trough. The role of the diurnal cycle and of extratropical disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knippertz, P. [Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere, Johannes Gutenberg-Univ. Mainz (Germany)

    2008-10-15

    The summertime West African heat trough (HT) is one of the most active dust sources in the world. A detailed case study during May/June 2006 based upon analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and a new Meteosat dust product illustrates two important mechanisms of dust emissions in this region: (1) The dry continental-scale HT circulation exhibits a strong diurnal cycle characterized by nocturnal low-level jets and downward mixing of momentum to the surface during the build-up of the planetary boundary layer in the morning. This leads to strong gusty surface winds and dust emission, mostly along the northern side of the HT, but also within the southerly monsoon flow. Transports lead to an accumulation of dust near the axis of the HT. (2) Triggered by a lee cyclogenesis south of the Atlas Mountains, the Intertropical Discontinuity that separates dry Saharan and moist monsoonal air shifts northward and allows deep moist convection to penetrate into the Sahara. The evaporation of precipitation in the dry desert air also generates strong gusty winds and dust emissions. This study helps to clarify the physical mechanisms for a previously discovered relation between the annual cycles of dustiness on one hand and near-surface convergence and gustiness on the other hand. (orig.)

  11. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  12. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  13. Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-09-01

    This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia.

  14. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  15. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D Gustine

    Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  16. The engineering approach to winter sports

    CERN Document Server

    Cheli, Federico; Maldifassi, Stefano; Melzi, Stefano; Sabbioni, Edoardo

    2016-01-01

    The Engineering Approach to Winter Sports presents the state-of-the-art research in the field of winter sports in a harmonized and comprehensive way for a diverse audience of engineers, equipment and facilities designers, and materials scientists. The book examines the physics and chemistry of snow and ice with particular focus on the interaction (friction) between sports equipment and snow/ice, how it is influenced by environmental factors, such as temperature and pressure, as well as by contaminants and how it can be modified through the use of ski waxes or the microtextures of blades or ski soles. The authors also cover, in turn, the different disciplines in winter sports:  skiing (both alpine and cross country), skating and jumping, bob sledding and skeleton, hockey and curling, with attention given to both equipment design and on the simulation of gesture and  track optimization.

  17. Do cold, low salinity waters pass through the Indo-Sri Lanka Channel during winter?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, R.R.; Girishkumar, M.S.; Ravichandran, M.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Pankajakshan, T.

    the southward water flow through the ISLC. The mean monthly (July–August) Indo-Sri Lanka Channel during winter 7385 climatologies of SSS from simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) analysis (Carton et al. 2005), TMI SST and SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a are utilized... Assimilation (SODA) is an ocean general circulation model-using Parallel Ocean Program with eddy-permitting resolution, which assim- ilates all available hydrographic profile data as well as ocean station data, moored temperature and salinity time series...

  18. Prevalence of operator fatigue in winter maintenance operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camden, Matthew C; Medina-Flintsch, Alejandra; Hickman, Jeffrey S; Bryce, James; Flintsch, Gerardo; Hanowski, Richard J

    2018-02-02

    Similar to commercial motor vehicle drivers, winter maintenance operators are likely to be at an increased risk of becoming fatigued while driving due to long, inconsistent shifts, environmental stressors, and limited opportunities for sleep. Despite this risk, there is little research concerning the prevalence of winter maintenance operator fatigue during winter emergencies. The purpose of this research was to investigate the prevalence, sources, and countermeasures of fatigue in winter maintenance operations. Questionnaires from 1043 winter maintenance operators and 453 managers were received from 29 Clear Road member states. Results confirmed that fatigue was prevalent in winter maintenance operations. Over 70% of the operators and managers believed that fatigue has a moderate to significant impact on winter maintenance operations. Approximately 75% of winter maintenance operators reported to at least sometimes drive while fatigued, and 96% of managers believed their winter maintenance operators drove while fatigued at least some of the time. Furthermore, winter maintenance operators and managers identified fatigue countermeasures and sources of fatigue related to winter maintenance equipment. However, the countermeasures believed to be the most effective at reducing fatigue during winter emergencies (i.e., naps) were underutilized. For example, winter maintenance operators reported to never use naps to eliminate fatigue. These results indicated winter maintenance operations are impacted by operator fatigue. These results support the increased need for research and effective countermeasures targeting winter maintenance operator fatigue. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Variability in the Speed of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as Observed by Aura/MLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flury, Thomas; Wu, Dong L.; Read, W. G.

    2013-01-01

    We use Aura/MLS stratospheric water vapour (H2O) measurements as tracer for dynamics and infer interannual variations in the speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) from 2004 to 2011. We correlate one-year time series of H2O in the lower stratosphere at two subsequent pressure levels (68 hPa, approx.18.8 km and 56 hPa, approx 19.9 km at the Equator) and determine the time lag for best correlation. The same calculation is made on the horizontal on the 100 hPa (approx 16.6 km) level by correlating the H2O time series at the Equator with the ones at 40 N and 40 S. From these lag coefficients we derive the vertical and horizontal speeds of the BDC in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. We observe a clear interannual variability of the vertical and horizontal branch. The variability reflects signatures of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Our measurements confirm the QBO meridional circulation anomalies and show that the speed variations in the two branches of the BDC are out of phase and fairly well anti-correlated. Maximum ascent rates are found during the QBO easterly phase. We also find that transport of H2O towards the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is on the average two times faster than to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with a mean speed of 1.15m/s at 100 hPa. Furthermore, the speed towards the NH shows much more interannual variability with an amplitude of about 21% whilst the speed towards the SH varies by only 10 %. An amplitude of 21% is also observed in the variability of the ascent rate at the Equator which is on the average 0.2mm/s.

  20. [Winter sport injuries in childhood (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausbrandt, D; Höllwarth, M; Ritter, G

    1979-01-01

    3374 accidents occurring on the field of sport during the years 1975--1977 accounted for 19% of all accidents dealt with at the Institute of Kinderchirurgie in Graz. 51% of the accidents were caused by the typical winter sports: skiing, tobogganing, ice-skating and ski-jumping with skiing accounting for 75% of the accidents. The fracture localization typical of the different kinds of winter sport is dealt with in detail. The correct size and safety of the equipment were found to be particularly important in the prevention of such accidents in childhood.

  1. Severe European winters in a secular perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

  2. Nuclear winter: The evidence and the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, O.

    1985-01-01

    Global concern over nuclear extinction, centered on the holocaust itself, now has turned to the more terrifying consequences of a post-war nuclear winter: ''the long-term effects - destruction of the environment, spread of epidemic diseases, contamination by radioactivity, and ... collapse of agriculture-[that] would spread famine and death to every country.'' Nuclear Winter, the latest in a series of studies by a number of different groups is clinical, analytical, systematic, and detailed. Two physicists and biologist analyze the effects on the climate, plants, animals, and living systems; the human costs; the policy implications

  3. Mechanical weed control in organic winter wheat

    OpenAIRE

    Euro Pannacci; Francesco Tei; Marcello Guiducci

    2017-01-01

    Three field experiments were carried out in organic winter wheat in three consecutive years (exp. 1, 2005-06; exp. 2, 2006- 07; exp. 3, 2007-08) in central Italy (42°57’ N - 12°22’ E, 165 m a.s.l.) in order to evaluate the efficacy against weeds and the effects on winter wheat of two main mechanical weed control strategies: i) spring tine harrowing used at three different application times (1 passage at T1, 2 passages at the time T1, 1 passage at T1 followed by 1 passage at T1 + 14 days) in t...

  4. Nuclear winter: The evidence and the risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, O.

    1985-01-01

    Global concern over nuclear extinction, centered on the holocaust itself, now has turned to the more terrifying consequences of a post-war nuclear winter: ''the long-term effects - destruction of the environment, spread of epidemic diseases, contamination by radioactivity, and ... collapse of agriculture-(that) would spread famine and death to every country.'' Nuclear Winter, the latest in a series of studies by a number of different groups is clinical, analytical, systematic, and detailed. Two physicists and biologist analyze the effects on the climate, plants, animals, and living systems; the human costs; the policy implications.

  5. If It Circulates, Keep It.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayden, Ron

    1987-01-01

    Describes a project in which a library's circulation figures were used as a basis for weeding out inactive items. The findings of the project are used to provide guidelines for purchasing library materials and making recommendations on rebound books, security systems, and promotion of classics and core titles. (CLB)

  6. Electrochemical Genosensing of Circulating Biomarkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campuzano, Susana; Yáñez-Sedeño, Paloma; Pingarrón, José Manuel

    2017-01-01

    Management and prognosis of diseases requires the measurement in non- or minimally invasively collected samples of specific circulating biomarkers, consisting of any measurable or observable factors in patients that indicate normal or disease-related biological processes or responses to therapy. Therefore, on-site, fast and accurate determination of these low abundance circulating biomarkers in scarcely treated body fluids is of great interest for health monitoring and biological applications. In this field, electrochemical DNA sensors (or genosensors) have demonstrated to be interesting alternatives to more complex conventional strategies. Currently, electrochemical genosensors are considered very promising analytical tools for this purpose due to their fast response, low cost, high sensitivity, compatibility with microfabrication technology and simple operation mode which makes them compatible with point-of-care (POC) testing. In this review, the relevance and current challenges of the determination of circulating biomarkers related to relevant diseases (cancer, bacterial and viral infections and neurodegenerative diseases) are briefly discussed. An overview of the electrochemical nucleic acid–based strategies developed in the last five years for this purpose is given to show to both familiar and non-expert readers the great potential of these methodologies for circulating biomarker determination. After highlighting the main features of the reported electrochemical genosensing strategies through the critical discussion of selected examples, a conclusions section points out the still existing challenges and future directions in this field. PMID:28420103

  7. The predicted circulation response to global warming and implications for regional hydroclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Isla; Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Shaw, Tiffany

    2016-04-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect regional hydroclimate around the world. To leading order, the increased ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture as it warms, intensifies moisture transports, making sub-tropical dry regions drier and mid- to high latitude wet regions wetter. But regional changes in hydroclimate will also depend on how the atmospheric circulation responds to warming. Here, the predictions of the future of the mid-latitude circulation by the current generation of global climate models will be discussed, with a particular focus on circulation changes that impact on regional hydroclimate. In the Northern Hemisphere winter, stationary wave changes are a leading order effect and impact on both North American and European hydroclimate. However, in certain regions, models exhibit considerable diversity in this response, motivating the need for improved understanding of the mechanisms involved and the reasons behind such a model spread. This is particularly true in the Pacific-North American sector during winter and so the mechanisms involved in circulation changes in this region and the reason for the inter-model spread will be discussed in detail.

  8. VanderLaan Circulant Type Matrices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyan Pan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Circulant matrices have become a satisfactory tools in control methods for modern complex systems. In the paper, VanderLaan circulant type matrices are presented, which include VanderLaan circulant, left circulant, and g-circulant matrices. The nonsingularity of these special matrices is discussed by the surprising properties of VanderLaan numbers. The exact determinants of VanderLaan circulant type matrices are given by structuring transformation matrices, determinants of well-known tridiagonal matrices, and tridiagonal-like matrices. The explicit inverse matrices of these special matrices are obtained by structuring transformation matrices, inverses of known tridiagonal matrices, and quasi-tridiagonal matrices. Three kinds of norms and lower bound for the spread of VanderLaan circulant and left circulant matrix are given separately. And we gain the spectral norm of VanderLaan g-circulant matrix.

  9. Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

    2016-04-01

    The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

  10. Stay Safe and Healthy This Winter!

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-11-23

    In this podcast for kids, the Kidtastics offer some simple ways to stay safe and healthy during the winter holiday season.  Created: 11/23/2010 by CDC Office of Women’s Health.   Date Released: 11/23/2010.

  11. Music Activities for Lemonade in Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardany, Audrey Berger

    2014-01-01

    "Lemonade in Winter: A Book About Two Kids Counting Money" is a children's book about math; however, when sharing it in the music classroom, street cries and clapping games emerge. Jenkins' and Karas' book provides a springboard to lessons addressing several music elements, including form, tempo, and rhythm, as well as…

  12. Winter Video Series Coming in January | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Scientific Library’s annual Summer Video Series was so successful that it will be offering a new Winter Video Series beginning in January. For this inaugural event, the staff is showing the eight-part series from National Geographic titled “American Genius.” 

  13. Winter Wheat Root Growth and Nitrogen Relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Irene Skovby

    in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L). Field experiments on the effect of sowing date, N fertilization and cultivars were conducted on a sandy loam soil in Taastrup, Denmark. The root studies were conducted by means of the minirhizotron method. Also, a field experiment on the effect of defoliation and N...

  14. Highway user expectations for ITD winter maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Providing a high Level of Service (LOS) to ensure the safety and mobility for the traveling public is a key objective for winter : maintenance operations. The goal of this research was to obtain a better understanding of Idaho highway users expect...

  15. Winter chemistry of North Slope lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, M. K.; White, D. M.; Lilly, M. R.; Hinzman, L. D.; Hilton, K. M.; Busey, R.

    2006-12-01

    Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Oilfield exploration and production requires water for facility use as well as transportation. Ice road construction requires winter extraction of fresh water. Since most North Slope lakes are relatively shallow, the quantity and quality of the water remaining under the ice by the end of the winter are important environmental management issues. Currently permits are based on the presence of overwintering fish populations and their sensitivity to low oxygen. Sampling during the winter of 2004 2005 sheds light on the winter chemistry of several pumped lakes and one unpumped lake on the North Slope. Dissolved oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature profiles were taken along with ice thickness and water depth measurements. Water samples were extracted and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, DOC, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping activities, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest levels of dissolved oxygen maintained in the lake with the least dissolved constituents. As would be expected, specific conductance increased with depth in the lake while dissolved oxygen decreased with depth. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May. The summarized data provides a view of North Slope lake chemistry trends, while continued studies investigate the chemical impacts of pumping North Slope lakes through continued sampling and modeling efforts.

  16. Modeling winter moth Operophtera brumata egg phenology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salis, Lucia; Lof, Marjolein; Asch, van Margriet; Visser, Marcel E.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has to match

  17. How marketers handled deliveries last winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-10-01

    A special study on how fuel oil marketers handled deliveries last winter is presented. A questionnaire was sent to the marketers asking how many fuel oil trucks they had, how penalties for small deliveries are assessed, and if many customers are calling for a summer fill. The results of the questionnaire are presented.

  18. Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

  19. Improved stratospheric atmosphere forecasts in the general circulation model through a methane oxidation parametrization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Jun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic characteristics of tropical stratospheric methane have been well researched using various satellite data, and numerical simulations have furtherly conducted using chemical climatic models, while the impact of stratospheric methane oxidation on distribution of water vapor is not paid enough attention in general circulation models. Simulated values of water vapour in the tropical upper stratosphere, and throughout much of the extratropical stratosphere, were too low. Something must be done to remedy this deficiency in order to producing realistic stratospheric water vapor using a general circulation model including the whole stratosphere. Introduction of a simple parametrization of the upper-stratospheric moisture source due to methane oxidation and a sink due to photolysis in the mesosphere was conducted. Numerical simulations and analysis of the influence of stratospheric methane on the prediction of tropical stratospheric moisture and temperature fields were carried out. This study presents the advantages of methane oxidation parametrization in producing a realistic distribution of water vapour in the tropical stratosphere and analyzes the impact of methane chemical process on the general circulation model using two storm cases including a heavy rain in South China and a typhoon caused tropical storm.It is obvious that general circulation model with methane oxidation parametrization succeeds in simulating the water vapor and temperature in stratosphere. The simulating rain center value of contrast experiment is increased up to 10% than that of the control experiment. Introduction of methane oxidation parametrization has modified the distribution of water vapour and then producing a broadly realistic distribution of temperature. Objective weather forecast verifications have been performed using simulating results of one month, which demonstrate somewhat positive effects on the model skill. There is a certain extent impact of methane oxidation

  20. Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

    2014-05-01

    Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the

  1. Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trouet, Valerie; Taylor, Alan H.; Carleton, Andrew M.; Skinner, Carl N.

    2009-03-01

    The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based fire records. We investigated how interannual variability in two fire weather indices, the Haines index (HI) and the Energy Release Component (ERC), in the Mediterranean region of southern Oregon and northern California is related to atmospheric circulation and fire extent. Years with high and low fire weather index values corresponded to years with a high and low annual area burned, respectively. HI combines atmospheric moisture with atmospheric instability and variation in HI was more strongly associated with interannual variation in wildfire extent than ERC, which is based on moisture alone. The association between fire extent and HI was also higher for fires in southern Oregon than in northern California. In terms of synoptic-scale circulation patterns, years of high fire risk (i.e., increased potential for erratic fire behavior, represented by HI and ERC) were associated with positive winter PNA and PDO conditions, characterized by enhanced regional mid-tropospheric ridging and low atmospheric moisture. The time lag we found between fire risk potential and prior winter circulation patterns could contribute to the development of long-lead fire-climate forecasting.

  2. Toward enabling winter occupations: testing a winter coat designed for older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Stephanie L; Boger, Jennifer N; Mihailidis, Alex

    2011-02-01

    Previous research indicates that older adults have difficulties using winter clothing, which contributes to their risk of isolation during winter. Research has also shown that a winter coat that requires less flexibility, strength, and dexterity would help support this population. This pilot study evaluated the measured and perceived effectiveness of a winter coat prototype that had a funnel sleeve design. Eight older adults trialed three coats (the participant's own coat, a coat fitted with sleeve gripper, and the prototype coat), which were evaluated though shoulder range of motion measurements and by the participant completing a survey. Less shoulder range of motion was used to put on the prototype coat. Survey findings support range of motion data that Sleeve Gripper has limited utility. A funnel sleeve design may require less range of motion at the shoulder compared to other coats.

  3. Radioisotopic evaluation of portal circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maliska, C.; Rosenthal, D.

    1986-01-01

    The use of a radio-tracer of portal circulation through the intestine, should prevent cruel punctures in the portal-vein or spleen as it is usually the case with traditional methods in the study of portal-system. The absorption of I-131 and Tc-99m, previously cheked in rabbits presented similar results in dogs. The time of circulation between terminal large-intestine and the liver (t-RF) was determined by external counting at hepatic level by recording radioactivity variation-time. In healthy animals the t-RF was from 20to 60 seconds, with average time of 42 seconds. In 2 animals with partial binding of portal-vein the t-RF went up to 110 and 120 seconds. (Author) [pt

  4. Spaceborne studies of ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patzert, W. C.

    1984-01-01

    The history and near-term future of ocean remote sensing to study ocean circulation are examined. Seasat provided the first-ever global data sets of sea surface topography (altimeter) and marine winds (scatterometer) and laid the foundation for the next generation of satellite missions planned for the late 1980s. The future missions are the next generation of altimeter and scatterometer to be flown aboard TOPEX (TOPography EXperiment) and NROSS (Navy Remote Sensing System), respectively. The data from these satellites will be coordinated with measurements made at sea to determine the driving forces of ocean circulation and to study the oceans' role in climate variability. The significance of such studies to such matters as climatic changes, fisheries, commerce, waste disposal, and national defense is noted.

  5. Ocean circulation generated magnetic signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manoj, C.; Kuvshinov, A.; Maus, S.

    2006-01-01

    Conducting ocean water, as it flows through the Earth's magnetic field, generates secondary electric and magnetic fields. An assessment of the ocean-generated magnetic fields and their detectability may be of importance for geomagnetism and oceanography. Motivated by the clear identification...... of ocean tidal signatures in the CHAMP magnetic field data we estimate the ocean magnetic signals of steady flow using a global 3-D EM numerical solution. The required velocity data are from the ECCO ocean circulation experiment and alternatively from the OCCAM model for higher resolution. We assume...... of the magnetic field, as compared to the ECCO simulation. Besides the expected signatures of the global circulation patterns, we find significant seasonal variability of ocean magnetic signals in the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans. Compared to seasonal variation, interannual variations produce weaker signals....

  6. Proper Sizing of Circulation Pumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tommerup, Henrik M.; Nørgaard, Jørgen

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes the preliminary results from field tests of replacing various types of old pumps used for circulating water in heating systems in single- and double-family houses with new types of pumps. The tests were carried out in Denmark for the Danish Electricity Savings Trust......, but the results can be applied to Europe in general. Despite the small sample of houses involved in the test, 15 houses, some rather safe conclusions can be drawn from the results, which showed that newly developed pumps with power consumption around 5-8 W, can perform the task of circulating the water...... sufficiently to keep the houses satisfactorily warm during the heating season of the test. The old replaced pumps used 5-10 times more power. In Europe alone, a gradual replacement of the present vastly oversized pumps with such small but sufficient pumps can save the construction of 17 large power plants...

  7. Journalism as Cultures of Circulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    of journalism. It is, however, more important than ever to shift attention away from texts to the processes through which they are circulated. This is partly because the many cultural forms of journalism (textual, institutional, technological, material, behavioural and imagined) are undergoing significant......, likes, comments, searches, journalist roles, writing and reading positions and identities etc. Such forms will be traced within the mediation of a specific event with the overall aim of beginning a theorization of the landscape of journalism as highly interrelated cultures of circulation.......The universe of journalism has always consisted of interspersed texts, meanings and practices. Yet, much journalism research has often isolated either texts and/or contexts and as such assumed relations between professional practices, informed (rational) readers and (conceived) core texts...

  8. Circulation of immigrants to Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Sándor Illés

    2015-01-01

    We measure the demographic patterns associated with international circular migration. Firstly, we define the circulation within the conceptual framework of transnationalism. Secondly, we create macro-scale data bank on long-term international circular migrants based on an original statistical method. Thirdly, we seek to gain further insight into the composition of international circular immigrants by gender, age, and family status. Conclusions indicate the need for future research.

  9. The Money in Circulation Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Kožel

    2000-01-01

    The paper discusses the main determinants of money-in-circulation demand in the Czech economy from 1996 to 1999. The volume of intended transactions (approximated by retail revenue from sales), the opportunity cost of holding cash (approximated by interest rate) and the expected rate of inflation are identified as the factors that most importantly account for the development of cash demand. A simple regression model was estimated in order to quantify the relationships among the aforementioned...

  10. Internal variability of the thermohaline ocean circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Raa, Lianke Alinda te

    2003-01-01

    Variations in the ocean circulation can strongly influence climate due to the large heat transport by the ocean currents. Variability of the thermohaline ocean circulation, the part of the ocean circulation driven by density gradients, occurs typically on (inter)decadal and longer time scales and is an important issue in present-day climate research. Although there are many indications from observations and numerical modeling studies that internal variability of the thermohaline circulation m...

  11. Hall Effect Gyrators and Circulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, Giovanni; DiVincenzo, David P.

    2014-04-01

    The electronic circulator and its close relative the gyrator are invaluable tools for noise management and signal routing in the current generation of low-temperature microwave systems for the implementation of new quantum technologies. The current implementation of these devices using the Faraday effect is satisfactory but requires a bulky structure whose physical dimension is close to the microwave wavelength employed. The Hall effect is an alternative nonreciprocal effect that can also be used to produce desired device functionality. We review earlier efforts to use an Ohmically contacted four-terminal Hall bar, explaining why this approach leads to unacceptably high device loss. We find that capacitive coupling to such a Hall conductor has much greater promise for achieving good circulator and gyrator functionality. We formulate a classical Ohm-Hall analysis for calculating the properties of such a device, and show how this classical theory simplifies remarkably in the limiting case of the Hall angle approaching 90°. In this limit, we find that either a four-terminal or a three-terminal capacitive device can give excellent circulator behavior, with device dimensions far smaller than the ac wavelength. An experiment is proposed to achieve GHz-band gyration in millimeter (and smaller) scale structures employing either semiconductor heterostructure or graphene Hall conductors. An inductively coupled scheme for realizing a Hall gyrator is also analyzed.

  12. Hall Effect Gyrators and Circulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Viola

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The electronic circulator and its close relative the gyrator are invaluable tools for noise management and signal routing in the current generation of low-temperature microwave systems for the implementation of new quantum technologies. The current implementation of these devices using the Faraday effect is satisfactory but requires a bulky structure whose physical dimension is close to the microwave wavelength employed. The Hall effect is an alternative nonreciprocal effect that can also be used to produce desired device functionality. We review earlier efforts to use an Ohmically contacted four-terminal Hall bar, explaining why this approach leads to unacceptably high device loss. We find that capacitive coupling to such a Hall conductor has much greater promise for achieving good circulator and gyrator functionality. We formulate a classical Ohm-Hall analysis for calculating the properties of such a device, and show how this classical theory simplifies remarkably in the limiting case of the Hall angle approaching 90°. In this limit, we find that either a four-terminal or a three-terminal capacitive device can give excellent circulator behavior, with device dimensions far smaller than the ac wavelength. An experiment is proposed to achieve GHz-band gyration in millimeter (and smaller scale structures employing either semiconductor heterostructure or graphene Hall conductors. An inductively coupled scheme for realizing a Hall gyrator is also analyzed.

  13. Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Romanowsky, Erik; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems.

  14. Stationary planetary wave propagation in Northern Hemisphere winter – climatological analysis of the refractive index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Li

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The probability density on a height-meridional plane of negative refractive index squared f(nk2<0 is introduced as a new analysis tool to investigate the climatology of the propagation conditions of stationary planetary waves based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 44 Northern Hemisphere boreal winters (1958–2002. This analysis addresses the control of the atmospheric state on planetary wave propagation. It is found that not only the variability of atmospheric stability with altitudes, but also the variability with latitudes has significant influence on planetary wave propagation. Eliassen-Palm flux and divergence are also analyzed to investigate the eddy activities and forcing on zonal mean flow. Only the ultra-long planetary waves with zonal wave number 1, 2 and 3 are investigated. In Northern Hemisphere winter the atmosphere shows a large possibility for stationary planetary waves to propagate from the troposphere to the stratosphere. On the other hand, waves induce eddy momentum flux in the subtropical troposphere and eddy heat flux in the subpolar stratosphere. Waves also exert eddy momentum forcing on the mean flow in the troposphere and stratosphere at middle and high latitudes. A similar analysis is also performed for stratospheric strong and weak polar vortex regimes, respectively. Anomalies of stratospheric circulation affect planetary wave propagation and waves also play an important role in constructing and maintaining of interannual variations of stratospheric circulation.

  15. Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

    2018-01-01

    We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

  16. Internal variability of the thermohaline ocean circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raa, Lianke Alinda te

    2003-01-01

    Variations in the ocean circulation can strongly influence climate due to the large heat transport by the ocean currents. Variability of the thermohaline ocean circulation, the part of the ocean circulation driven by density gradients, occurs typically on (inter)decadal and longer time scales and is

  17. India Annual Winter Cropped Area, 2001-2016

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — India Annual Winter Cropped Area, 2001 - 2016 consists of annual winter cropped areas for most of India (except the Northeastern states) from 2000-2001 to 2015-2016....

  18. Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K.-M.; Li, Xiao-Fan

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the

  19. Ocean circulation and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselmann, Klaus

    1991-09-01

    Recent numerical simulations using global ocean circulation models are reviewed together with model experiments involving further important climate sub-systems with which the ocean interacts: the atmosphere, the air-sea interface and the global carbon cycle. A common feature of all ocean circulation experiments considered is the strong sensitivity of the circulation to relatively minor changes in surface forcing, particularly to the buoyancy fluxes in regions of deep water formation in high latitudes. This may explain some of the well-known deficiencies of past global ocean circulation simulations. The strong sensitivity may also have been the cause of rapid climate changes observed in paleoclimatic records and can lead further to significant natural climate variability on the time scales of a few hundred years through the stochastic forcing of the ocean by atmospheric weather variability. Gobal warming computations using two different coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the "business-as-usual" scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change yield a significantly stronger warming delay due to the heat uptake by the oceans in the Southern Ocean than estimated on the basis of box-diffusion models. Recent advances in surface wave modelling, illustrated by a comparison of wave height fields derived from the WAM model and the GEOSAT altimeter, hold promise for the development of an improved representation of ocean-atmosphere coupling based on an explicit description of the dynamical processes at the air-sea interface. Global carbon cycle simulations with a three dimensional carbon cycle model tuned to reproduce past variations of carbon cycle indices show a significant impact of variations in the ocean circulation on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and thereby on climate. The series of experiments suggest that for the study of climate in the time scale range from 101-103years, it would be highly desirable, and has indeed now become feasible, to couple

  20. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert, E-mail: hondula@virginia.edu [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, PO Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the

  1. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the North

  2. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hondula, David M.; Dolan, Robert

    2010-07-01

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'—such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989—are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the

  3. AGA predicts winter jump in residential gas price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The American Gas Association predicts the average heating bill for residential gas consumers could increase by as much as 18% this winter. AGA Pres. Mike Baly said, Last year's winter was warmer than normal. If the 1992-93 winter is similar, AGA projects that residential natural gas heating bills will go up about 6%. If we see a return to normal winter weather, our projection show the average bill could rise by almost 18%

  4. Seed wintering and deterioration characteristics between weedy and cultivated rice

    OpenAIRE

    Baek, Jung-Sun; Chung, Nam-Jin

    2012-01-01

    Background Incidences of weedy rice continuously occurred in paddy fields because its shattering seeds were able to over-winter. In this research, the seed deterioration of weedy rice was investigated compared with cultivated rice, and the wintering characteristics of these two types of rice were investigated with the field wintering test, freezing resistance test, and accelerated aging test. Results For the wintering test, the seeds of weedy rice were placed on the soil surface of a paddy wi...

  5. The impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China in the past half-century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yong; Huang Anning; Zhou Yang; Huang Ying; Zhu Xinsheng

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated by using the observed dust storm frequency (DSF) and the 10 m wind velocity at 36 stations in Tarim Basin and the National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for the period 1961–2007. The spring DSF (winter NAO) index shows a clear decreasing (increasing) linear trend over 1961–2007. The winter NAO correlates well with the subsequent spring DSF over Tarim Basin on both interannual and interdecadal time scales and its interannual to interdecadal variation plays an important role in the spring DSF. Two possible physical mechanisms are identified. One is related to the large scale anomalous circulations in spring in the middle to high troposphere modulated by the winter NAO, providing the background of dynamical conditions for the dust storm occurrences. The other is related to the shifts in the local horizontal sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and 10 m wind speed, corresponding to changes in the large scale circulations in spring. The decrease in the local 10 m wind speed due to the reduced horizontal SLP gradients over Tarim Basin during the strong winter NAO years contributes to the decline of the DSF in the subsequent spring. (letter)

  6. Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

    2013-12-01

    The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Stratosphere/mesosphere coupling during the winter/summer transition at Davis, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Höffner, Josef; Viehl, Timo P.; Becker, Erich; Latteck, Ralph; Kaifler, Bernd; Morris, Ray J.

    2015-04-01

    The mobile scanning iron lidar of the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Kühlungsborn (IAP) was in operation at Davis, Antarctica, from December 15, 2010, until December 31, 2012. It measured iron densities, vertical winds, and temperatures in the iron layer, i. e. from approximately 80 to 100 km. The measurement principle is based on probing the Doppler broadened resonance line of iron atoms at 386 nm. The lidar can operate under daylight conditions. Typical values for temperature uncertainty, altitude and time resolution are 3-5 K, 1 km, and 1 hour, respectively. At Davis, the lidar has achieved at total of 2900 hours of temperature measurements which is presumably the largest nearly continuous data set in Antarctica. In this presentation we concentrate on the winter/summer transition in three consecutive years and compare with circulation changes in the stratosphere derived from MERRA (NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications). We also compare with the northern hemisphere (NH). We find that the thermal structure around the mesopause at Davis is closely coupled to the general circulation in the stratosphere, more precisely to the transition from winter to summer conditions. In contrast to theoretical expectations we occasionally find the mesopause significantly higher and colder(!) compared to the NH. The mesopause altitude changes by several kilometers throughout the summer season, which is significantly different from the summer in the northern hemispheric. Depending on altitude, temperatures can be warmer or colder compared to the NH summer. The Australian Antarctic Division has been operating a 55 MHz VHF radar at Davis since February 2003. We have studied the seasonal variation of polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE). PMSE are strong radar echoes related to ice particles and therefore require atmospheric temperatures lower than the frost point temperature. We note that (apart from low temperatures) more ingredients

  8. Measuring Transpiration to Regulate Winter Irrigation Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samuelson, Lisa [Auburn University

    2006-11-08

    Periodic transpiration (monthly sums) in a young loblolly pine plantation between ages 3 and 6 was measured using thermal dissipation probes. Fertilization and fertilization with irrigation were better than irrigation alone in increasing transpiration of young loblolly pines during winter months, apparently because of increased leaf area in fertilized trees. Irrigation alone did not significantly increase transpiration compared with the non-fertilized and non-irrigated control plots.

  9. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  10. Postharvest tillage reduces Downy Brome infestations in winter wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Pacific Northwest, downy brome continues to infest winter wheat producing regions especially in low-rainfall areas where the winter wheat-summer fallow rotation is the dominate production system. In Washington, a study was conducted for 2 years at each of two locations in the winter wheat -su...

  11. An NOy Algorithm for Arctic Winter 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewenstein, M.; Jost, H.; Greenblatt, J. B.; Podolske, J. R.; Gao, R. S.; Popp, P. J.; Toon, G. C.; Webster, C. R.; Herman, R. L.; Hurst, D. F.; hide

    2000-01-01

    NOy, total reactive nitrogen, and the long-lived tracer N2O, nitrous oxide, were measured by both in situ and remote sensing instruments during the Arctic winter 1999-2000 SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). The correlation function NOy:N2O observed before the winter Arctic vortex forms, which is known as NOy(sup), is an important reference relationship for conditions in the evolving vortex. NOy(sup) can, with suitable care, be used to quantify vortex denitrification by sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles when NOy data is taken throughout the winter. Observed NOy values less than the reference value can be interpreted in terms of semi-permanent removal of active nitrogen by condensation and sedimentation processes. In this paper we present a segmented function representing NOy(sup) applicable over the full range of altitudes sampled during SOLVE. We also assess the range of application of this function and some of its limitations.

  12. Impacts of Pacific SSTs on California Winter Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

    2017-12-01

    Consecutive below-normal precipitation years and resulted multi-year droughts are critical issues as the recent 2012-2015 drought of California caused tremendous socio-economic damages. However, studies on the causes of the multi-year droughts lack. In this study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts (1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2015) in California during the last two decades, we investigated the atmospheric and oceanic characteristics of the three drought events for winter (December-February, DJF) in order to understand large-scale circulations that are responsible for initiation, maintenance, and termination of the droughts. It was found that abnormally developed upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific are primarily responsible for precipitation deficits and then droughts. These ridges developed when negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) including La Niña events are pervasive in the tropical Pacific. After 3 or 4 years, the droughts ended under the opposite conditions; upper-tropospheric troughs in the North Pacific with El Niño events in the tropics. Results of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for the 41-year (1974/75-2014/15) 500 hPa geopotential height in DJF revealed that, during the drought periods, the positive phases of the first and second EOF mode (EOF1+ and EOF2+, respectively) were active one by one, positioning upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific. While EOF1+ is associated with cold tropical central Pacific and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), EOF2+ is associated with the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern (i.e., warm western tropical Pacific and cool eastern tropical Pacific near the southern Peru). Based on these results, we developed a regression model for winter precipitation. While dominant SST factors differ by decades, for the recent two decades (1994/1995-2014/2015), 56% variability of DJF precipitation is explained by the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern and PDO (NINO3

  13. Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained

  14. Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

    2018-03-01

    Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given

  15. Proceedings - BORDEAUX VIVA WINTER SCHOOL - XXXIII LIAC MEETING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thierry Couffinhal

    2017-12-01

    - effects of hyperoxia - L. MONTEIRO-RODRIGUES, Lisbon - Portugal Murine models for investigating vascular ageing - G. FAURY, Grenoble New insights into vascular biology by single cell RNA sequencing - M. VANLANDEWYCK, Stockholm - Sweden Thrombosis in aging - C. JAMES, Bordeaux Retinal vascular imaging - C. HELMER, Bordeaux Lunch of Winter School Meeting Winter School meeting (organizers: A. Bikfalvi & J. Badaut Meet the experts - Round table with experts MATRIX STRUCTURAL AND MECHANICAL STUDIES (Chairmen: I. Brunet & P. Dufourcq Model of pseudoxanthoma elasticum – Vascular calcification and aging, from gene to bedside - L. MARTIN, G. LEFTHERIOTIS, Angers Vascular aging: structure and dynamics of constitutive macromolecules and sub-fragments - V. SAMOUILLAN, Toulouse Tubular scaffolds for applications of vascular tissue engineering - V. LA CARRUBBA, Palermo - Italy Bioprosthetic heart valve aging deterioration and age-related benefits - M. SPINA, Padova - Italy Elastin modification during vascular aging and pathophysiological consequences - L. DUCA, Reims SELECTED ORAL PRESENTATION (Chairmen: M. Laffargue & D. Henrion • MicroRNA expressed in progenitor cells circulating in peripheral blood as prospective biomarkers of agerelated macular degeneration (AMD in its dry and wet form – preliminary data - M. KAWA, Poland • Molecular, conformational and thermal characterization of ventricular Remodeling in a pig model of tachycardia-induced cardiomyopathy - V. LLORENTE CORTES, Barcelona - Spain • Valvular calcification: implication of the Semicarbazide-Sensitive Amine Oxidase (SSAO? - N. MERCIER, Nancy • Vascular calcification during chronic kidney disease: role of the RAGE/Cathepsin S/elastin peptides axis - A. WAHART, Reims VIVA EVENING CONFERENCE (Chairman: T. Couffinhal A short history of the vessel - A. BIKFALVI, Bordeaux 1 December | 1 de Dezembro CELL BIOLOGY AND SIGNALING (Chairwomen: C. Duplàa & V. Llorrente Cortes SELECTED ORAL PRESENTATION • Targeting

  16. The influence of sowing period and seeding norm on autumn vegetation, winter hardiness and yield of winter cereal crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potapova G. N.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available the winter wheat and triticale in the middle part of the Ural Mountains haven’t been seeded before. The technology of winter crop cultivation should be improved due to the production of new varieties of winter rye. Winter hardiness and yield of winter rye are higher in comparison with winter triticale and especially with winter wheat. The sowing period and the seeding rate influence the amount of yield and winter hardiness. The winter hardiness of winter cereals and the yield of the rye variety Iset sowed on August 25 and the yield of the triticale variety Bashkir short-stalked and wheat Kazanskaya 560 sowed on August 15 were higher. It is important to sow winter grain in local conditions in the second half of August. The sowing this period allows to provide plants with the necessary amount of positive temperatures (450–500 °C. This helps the plants to form 3–4 shoots of tillering and a mass of 10 dry plants reaching 3–5 grams. The winter grain crops in the middle part of the Ural Mountains should be sown with seeding rates of 6 and 7 million of sprouting grains per 1 ha, and the seeds must be cultivated with fungicidal preparation before seeding.

  17. Warm and Dry Spells (WDS in Austral Winter over Central South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Satyamurty

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The horizontal and vertical structure of unusually warm and dry spells (WDS over the central parts of South America during the winter and post-winter months (JJAS are studied. During WDS the mean temperature and humidity anomalies over central Brazil are about +4.1°C and −13.2%, respectively. The mean duration of WDS is 11 days and their mean frequency is less than one per year during the months of JJAS. Apparently, WDS have no preference for the phase of ENSO. Widespread and persistent subsidence in the middle troposphere is observed in tropical Brazil during WDS, which renders the lower tropospheric air warm and dry. The negative anomalies of the specific humidity are observed to be associated with the subsidence regions. A strong, slow moving ridge in the eastern South Pacific and a low-pressure center in northern Argentina are important surface characteristics during the WDS. A more detailed investigation of two specific WDS events, a strong event (August–September 1999 and a moderate one (June 2002, shows a blocking-like situation in the 500-hPa geopotential and surface pressure fields in the Pacific. The South Atlantic subtropical high somewhat approaches the continent. Strong northerlies over the central and eastern parts of Brazil are also observed in the lower troposphere. During WDS the regional circulation acquires summertime characteristics, except for the absence of precipitation, and the circulation in the meridional plane is in the opposite sense from the Hadley circulation. A frontal system, supported by a 500-hPa trough, advances into central Brazil, causing the dissipation of the anomalous situation.

  18. Seasonal variability of salinity and circulation in a silled estuarine fjord: A numerical model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawase, Mitsuhiro; Bang, Bohyun

    2013-12-01

    A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to study seasonal variability of circulation and hydrography in Hood Canal, Washington, United States, an estuarine fjord that develops seasonally hypoxic conditions. The model is validated with data from year 2006, and is shown to be capable of quantitatively realistic simulation of hydrographic variability. Sensitivity experiments show the largest cause of seasonal variability to be that of salinity at the mouth of the fjord, which drives an annual deep water renewal in late summer-early autumn. Variability of fresh water input from the watershed also causes significant but secondary changes, especially in winter. Local wind stress has little effect over the seasonal timescale. Further experiments, in which one forcing parameter is abruptly altered while others are kept constant, show that outside salinity change induces an immediate response in the exchange circulation that, however, decays as a transient as the system equilibrates. In contrast, a change in the river input initiates gradual adjustment towards a new equilibrium value for the exchange transport. It is hypothesized that the spectral character of the system response to river variability will be redder than to salinity variability. This is demonstrated with a stochastically forced, semi-analytical model of fjord exchange circulation. While the exchange circulation in Hood Canal appears less sensitive to the river variability than to the outside hydrography at seasonal timescales, at decadal and longer timescales both could become significant factors in affecting the exchange circulation.

  19. Active Upper-atmosphere Chemistry and Dynamics from Polar Circulation Reversal on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teanby, Nicholas A.; Irwin, Patrick Gerard Joseph; Nixon, Conor A.; DeKok, Remco; Vinatier, Sandrine; Coustenis, Athena; Sefton-Nash, Elliot; Calcutt, Simon B.; Flasar, Michael F.

    2012-01-01

    Saturn's moon Titan has a nitrogen atmosphere comparable to Earth's, with a surface pressure of 1.4 bar. Numerical models reproduce the tropospheric conditions very well but have trouble explaining the observed middle-atmosphere temperatures, composition and winds. The top of the middle-atmosphere circulation has been thought to lie at an altitude of 450 to 500 kilometres, where there is a layer of haze that appears to be separated from the main haze deck. This 'detached' haze was previously explained as being due to the colocation of peak haze production and the limit of dynamical transport by the circulation's upper branch. Herewe report a build-up of trace gases over the south pole approximately two years after observing the 2009 post-equinox circulation reversal, from which we conclude that middle-atmosphere circulation must extend to an altitude of at least 600 kilometres. The primary drivers of this circulation are summer-hemisphere heating of haze by absorption of solar radiation and winter-hemisphere cooling due to infrared emission by haze and trace gases; our results therefore imply that these effects are important well into the thermosphere (altitudes higher than 500 kilometres). This requires both active upper-atmosphere chemistry, consistent with the detection of high-complexity molecules and ions at altitudes greater than 950 kilometres, and an alternative explanation for the detached haze, such as a transition in haze particle growth from monomers to fractal structures.

  20. Vasculitis of the mesenteric circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Matthew J; Warrington, Kenneth J

    2017-02-01

    Vasculitis of the mesenteric circulation is an uncommon but life-threatening manifestation of systemic vasculitis. Initial symptoms are frequently non-specific and therefore patients often present to primary care physicians and gastroenterologists with abdominal pain or gastrointestinal bleeding. Given the severity of the conditions associated with mesenteric vasculitis, it is imperative to appropriately diagnose and initiate treatment of suspected cases. This review will focus on diseases commonly associated with vasculitis of the mesenteric vessels. Imaging characteristics and clinical features assisting in diagnosis as well as initial approaches to treatment are emphasized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Diarrhea caused by circulating agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabian, Elisabeth; Kump, Patrizia; Krejs, Guenter J

    2012-09-01

    Circulating agents cause intestinal secretion or changes in motility with decreased intestinal transit time, resulting in secretory-type diarrhea. Secretory diarrhea as opposed to osmotic diarrhea is characterized by large-volume, watery stools, often more than 1 L per day; by persistence of diarrhea when patients fast; and by the fact that on analysis of stool-water, measured osmolarity is identical to that calculated from the electrolytes present. Although sodium plays the main role in water and electrolyte absorption, chloride is the major ion involved in secretion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Autonomic Regulation of Splanchnic Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen A Fraser

    1991-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of the autonomic nervous system in circulatory regulation of the splanchnic organs (stomach, small intestine, colon, liver, pancreas and spleen is reviewed. In general, the sympathetic nervous system is primarily involved in vasoconstriction, while the parasympathetic contributes to vasodilation. Vasoconstriction in the splanchnic circulation appears to be mediated by alpha-2 receptors and vasodilation by activation of primary afferent nerves with subsequent release of vasodilatory peptides, or by stimulation of beta-adrenergic receptors. As well, an important function of the autonomic nervous system is to provide a mechanism by which splanchnic vascular reserve can be mobilized during stress to maintain overall cardiovascular homeostasis.

  3. Nuclear Winter Revisited: can it Make a Difference This Time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, S.

    2006-12-01

    Some 23 years ago, in the middle of a Cold War and the threat of a strategic nuclear weapons exchange between NATO and the Warsaw Pact nations, atmospheric scientists pointed out that the well-anticipated side effects of a large-scale nuclear war ozone depletion, radioactive contamination and some climatic effects had massively underestimated the more likely implications: massive fires, severe dimming and cooling beneath circulating smoke clouds, disruption to agriculture in non-combatant nations, severe loss of imports of food to already-food-deficient regions and major alterations to atmospheric circulation. While the specific consequences were dependent on both scenarios of weapons use and injections and removals of smoke and dust and other chemicals into the atmosphere, it was clear that this would be despite passionately argued uncertainties a large major additional effect. As further investigations of smoke removal, patchy transport, etc., were pursued, the basic concerns remained, but the magnitude calculated with one-dimensional models diminished creating an unfortunate media debate over nuclear winter vs. nuclear autumn. Of course, one can't grow summer crops in any autumn natural or nuclear but that concern often got lost in the contentious political debate. Of course, it was pointed out that anyone who required knowing the additional environmental consequences of a major nuclear exchange to be finally deterred was already so far from the reality of the direct effects of the blasts that they might never see the concerns. But for non-combatants, it was a major awakening of their inability to escape severe consequences of the troubles of others, even if they were bystanders in the east-west conflicts. Two decades later, things have radically changed: the prospect of a massive strategic nuclear exchange is greatly diminished good news but the possibility of limited regional exchanges or terrorist incidents is widely believed to have greatly increased bad

  4. Intestinal circulation during inhalation anesthesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tverskoy, M.; Gelman, S.; Fowler, K.C.; Bradley, E.L.

    1985-01-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the influence of inhalational agents on the intestinal circulation in an isolated loop preparation. Sixty dogs were studied, using three intestinal segments from each dog. Selected intestinal segments were pumped with aortic blood at a constant pressure of 100 mmHg. A mixture of 86 Rb and 9-microns spheres labeled with 141 Ce was injected into the arterial cannula supplying the intestinal loop, while mesenteric venous blood was collected for activity counting. A very strong and significant correlation was found between rubidium clearance and microsphere entrapment (r = 0.97, P less than 0.0001). Nitrous oxide anesthesia was accompanied by a higher vascular resistance (VR), lower flow (F), rubidium clearance (Cl-Rb), and microspheres entrapment (Cl-Sph) than pentobarbital anesthesia, indicating that the vascular bed in the intestinal segment was constricted and flow (total and nutritive) decreased. Halothane, enflurane, and isoflurane anesthesia were accompanied by a much lower arteriovenous oxygen content difference (AVDO 2 ) and oxygen uptake than pentobarbital or nitrous oxide. Compared with pentobarbital, enflurane anesthesia was not accompanied by marked differences in VR, F, Cl-Rb, and Cl-Sph; halothane at 2 MAC decreased VR and increased F and Cl-Rb while isoflurane increased VR and decreased F. alpha-Adrenoceptor blockade with phentolamine (1 mg . kg-1) abolished isoflurane-induced vasoconstriction, suggesting that the increase in VR was mediated via circulating catecholamines

  5. Large-scale Circulation Control of the Occurrence of Low-level Turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Marco Y. T.; Zhou, Wen; Shun, Chi-Ming; Chan, Pak-Wai

    2018-04-01

    This study identifies the atmospheric circulation features that are favorable for the occurrence of low-level turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport [below 1600 feet (around 500 m)]. By using LIDAR data at the airport, turbulence and nonturbulence cases are selected. It is found that the occurrence of turbulence is significantly related to the strength of the southerly wind at 850 hPa over the South China coast. On the other hand, the east-west wind at this height demonstrates a weak relation to the occurrence. This suggests that turbulence is generated by flow passing Lantau Island from the south. The southerly wind also transports moisture from the South China Sea to Hong Kong, reducing local stability. This is favorable for the development of strong turbulence. It is also noted that the strong southerly wind during the occurrence of low-level turbulence is contributed by an anomalous zonal gradient of geopotential in the lower troposphere over the South China Sea. This gradient is caused by the combination of variations at different timescales. These are the passage of synoptic extratropical cyclones and anticyclones and the intraseasonal variation in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The seasonal variation in geopotential east of the Tibetan Plateau leads to a seasonal change in meridional wind, by which the frequency of low-level turbulence is maximized in spring and minimized in autumn.

  6. Circulation and water mass transports on the East Antarctic shelf in the Mertz Glacier region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Antoine; Houssais, Marie-Noëlle; Le Goff, Hervé; Marec, Claudie; Dausse, Denis

    2017-08-01

    The East Antarctic shelf off Adélie-George V Land is known to be an important region for Dense Shelf Water (DSW) formation as a result of intense sea ice production in the Mertz Glacier Polynya during the winter season. It is also a region where the warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) penetrates onto the shelf during the summer. Using hydrographic observations from a summer survey in 2008 we implement a box inverse model to propose a comprehensive view of the steady state circulation on this shelf in summer. Additional information from mooring observations collected on the depression slope is used to provide context to the retrieved circulation scheme. Over the depression slope, the summer baroclinic structure of the currents is found to contrast with the almost barotropic structure in winter. The summer circulation is strongly constrained by the DSW distribution and forms a clockwise circulation primarily transporting the fresh surface waters and the warm mCDW around the dome of DSW. Over the upper flank of the Mertz Bank, the inflow branch transports the mCDW towards the Mertz Glacier, while, over the lower part of the slope, the outflow branch returns to the sill a diluted mode of the same water mass. A total of 0.19 Sv of mCDW inflows at the sill and two-third reach the Mertz Glacier and recirculate in front of it, allowing the mCDW to penetrate into the deeper part of the depression. Possible scenarios of interaction between the mCDW and the DSW with the glacier are examined. It is shown that, despite the water mass pathways and transports suggest possible ice-ocean interaction, both lateral and basal melting were likely small in summer 2008. Finally, our results suggest that, in addition to bathymetric features, the distribution of the residual DSW which is left from the preceding winter sets up regional pressure gradients which provide a seasonal control on the shelf circulation. In particular, the spring collapse of the convective patch would

  7. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin

    2017-05-01

    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  8. Cross-Shelf Circulation and Momentum and Heat Balances Over the Inner Continental Shelf Near Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    phytoplankton in Vineyard Sound, Mas- sachusetts. II. comparative primary productivity and nutritional status of winter and summer assemblages. Journal of...Martha’s Vineyard , Massachusetts by Melanie Rinn Fewings September 2007 20080401342 MIT/WHOI 2007-24 Cross-Shelf Circulation and Momentum and Heat...Balances over the Inner Continental Shelf Near Martha’s Vineyard , M"gchusetts by Melanie Rinn Fewings Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge

  9. Simulation and analysis of the mesoscale circulation in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Echevin

    Full Text Available The large-scale and mesoscale circulation of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are simulated with an eddy-resolving primitive-equation regional model (RM of 1/16° resolution embedded in a general circulation model (GM of the Mediterranean Sea of 1/8° resolution. The RM is forced by a monthly climatology of heat fluxes, precipitation and wind stress. The GM, which uses the same atmospheric forcing, provides initial and boundary conditions for the RM. Analysis of the RM results shows that several realistic features of the large-scale and mesoscale circulation are evident in this region. The mean cyclonic circulation is in good agreement with observations. Mesoscale variability is intense along the coasts of Sardinia and Corsica, in the Gulf of Lions and in the Catalan Sea. The length scales of the Northern Current meanders along the Provence coast and in the Gulf of Lions’ shelf are in good agreement with observations. Winter Intermediate Water is formed along most of the north-coast shelves, between the Gulf of Genoa and Cape Creus. Advection of this water by the mean cyclonic circulation generates a complex eddy field in the Catalan Sea. Intense anticyclonic eddies are generated northeast of the Balearic Islands. These results are in good agreement with mesoscale activity inferred from satellite altimetric data. This work demonstrates the feasibility of a down-scaling system composed of a general-circulation, a regional and a coastal model, which is one of the goals of the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project.

    Key words. Oceanography: physical (currents; eddies and mesoscale processes; general circulation

  10. Simulation and analysis of the mesoscale circulation in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Echevin

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The large-scale and mesoscale circulation of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are simulated with an eddy-resolving primitive-equation regional model (RM of 1/16° resolution embedded in a general circulation model (GM of the Mediterranean Sea of 1/8° resolution. The RM is forced by a monthly climatology of heat fluxes, precipitation and wind stress. The GM, which uses the same atmospheric forcing, provides initial and boundary conditions for the RM. Analysis of the RM results shows that several realistic features of the large-scale and mesoscale circulation are evident in this region. The mean cyclonic circulation is in good agreement with observations. Mesoscale variability is intense along the coasts of Sardinia and Corsica, in the Gulf of Lions and in the Catalan Sea. The length scales of the Northern Current meanders along the Provence coast and in the Gulf of Lions’ shelf are in good agreement with observations. Winter Intermediate Water is formed along most of the north-coast shelves, between the Gulf of Genoa and Cape Creus. Advection of this water by the mean cyclonic circulation generates a complex eddy field in the Catalan Sea. Intense anticyclonic eddies are generated northeast of the Balearic Islands. These results are in good agreement with mesoscale activity inferred from satellite altimetric data. This work demonstrates the feasibility of a down-scaling system composed of a general-circulation, a regional and a coastal model, which is one of the goals of the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project. Key words. Oceanography: physical (currents; eddies and mesoscale processes; general circulation

  11. Comparison of mesospheric winds from a high-altitude meteorological analysis system and meteor radar observations during the boreal winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, J.; Hoppel, K.; Kuhl, D.; de Wit, R.; Stober, G.; Espy, P.; Baker, N.; Brown, P.; Fritts, D.; Jacobi, C.; Janches, D.; Mitchell, N.; Ruston, B.; Swadley, S.; Viner, K.; Whitcomb, T.; Hibbins, R.

    2017-02-01

    We present a study of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the boreal winters of 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 produced with a new high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. This system is based on a modified version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) with an extended vertical domain up to ∼116 km altitude coupled with a hybrid four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system that assimilates both standard operational meteorological observations in the troposphere and satellite-based observations of temperature, ozone and water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere. NAVGEM-based MLT analyzed winds are validated using independent meteor radar wind observations from nine different sites ranging from 69°N-67°S latitude. Time-averaged NAVGEM zonal and meridional wind profiles between 75 and 95 km altitude show good qualitative and quantitative agreement with corresponding meteor radar wind profiles. Wavelet analysis finds that the 3-hourly NAVGEM and 1-hourly radar winds both exhibit semi-diurnal, diurnal, and quasi-diurnal variations whose vertical profiles of amplitude and phase are also in good agreement. Wavelet analysis also reveals common time-frequency behavior in both NAVGEM and radar winds throughout the Northern extratropics around the times of major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in January 2010 and January 2013, with a reduction in semi-diurnal amplitudes beginning around the time of a mesospheric wind reversal at 60°N that precedes the SSW, followed by an amplification of semi-diurnal amplitudes that peaks 10-14 days following the onset of the mesospheric wind reversal. The initial results presented in this study demonstrate that the wind analyses produced by the high-altitude NAVGEM system accurately capture key features in the observed MLT winds during these two boreal winter periods.

  12. Spectrum of winter dermatoses in rural Yemen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Kamel, Mohamed A

    2016-05-01

    Surveys that have been carried out to determine the prevalence of skin diseases in rural Yemen are scarce or not available. To investigate the spectrum of winter dermatoses in a rural Yemeni community. A retrospective study was conducted at the dermatology outpatient clinic of the Al-Helal Specialized Hospital (Radaa' district of Al Bayda' Governorate) using data analysis of 700 selected records of patients managed during four months of the 2013-14 winter season. Seven hundred patients with 730 diseases were reported in this study; the major bulk of patients (46.57%) were in the >18-40-year age group, and females outnumbered males. By far, dermatitis, eczematous, and allergic disorders (38.49%) topped the list of the most frequent skin disorders groups, followed by skin infections and infestations (20%) and the pigmentary disorders (13.70%) group. Contact dermatitis (10.68%) was the most prevalent skin disorder, followed by hyperpigmentations (8.77%), acne (8.08%), viral infections (5.75%), atopic dermatitis (5.62%), and parasitic infestations (5.34%). This survey has documented the spectrum of winter dermatoses in a rural Yemeni community but also reflects the pattern of common dermatoses in the whole country. Dermatitis, eczematous, and allergic disorders, skin infections, and pigmentary disorders are the commonest groups. Contact dermatitis is the most prevalent disorder, and leishmaniasis is the most prevalent skin infectious disease. Climate, occupational, social, and environmental factors are the main contributors. Such statistics can form an important basis for community-based health policies. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

  13. Does Zoning Winter Recreationists Reduce Recreation Conflict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Aubrey D.; Vaske, Jerry J.; Squires, John R.; Olson, Lucretia E.; Roberts, Elizabeth K.

    2017-01-01

    Parks and protected area managers use zoning to decrease interpersonal conflict between recreationists. Zoning, or segregation, of recreation—often by non-motorized and motorized activity—is designed to limit physical interaction while providing recreation opportunities to both groups. This article investigated the effectiveness of zoning to reduce recreation conflict in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area in Colorado, USA. Despite a zoning management system, established groomed travel routes were used by both non-motorized recreationists (backcountry skiers, snowboarders, snowshoers) and motorized recreationists (snowmobilers). We hypothesized that persistent recreation conflict reported by non-motorized recreationists was the result of recreation occurring in areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use, mostly along groomed routes. We performed a geospatial analysis of recreation [from Global Positioning System (GPS) points, n = 1,233,449] in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area to identify areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use. We then surveyed non-motorized recreationists ( n = 199) to test whether reported conflict is higher for respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with respondents traveling outside areas of mixed-use. Results from the geospatial analysis showed that only 0.7 % of the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area contained recreation from both groups, however that area contained 14.8 % of all non-motorized recreation and 49.1 % of all motorized recreation. Survey analysis results showed higher interpersonal conflict for all five standard conflict variables among non-motorized respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with those traveling outside mixed-use areas. Management implications and recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of zoning are provided.

  14. Arctic storms simulated in atmospheric general circulation models under uniform high, uniform low, and variable resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesler, E. L.; Bosler, P. A.; Taylor, M.

    2016-12-01

    The impact of strong extratropical storms on coastal communities is large, and the extent to which storms will change with a warming Arctic is unknown. Understanding storms in reanalysis and in climate models is important for future predictions. We know that the number of detected Arctic storms in reanalysis is sensitive to grid resolution. To understand Arctic storm sensitivity to resolution in climate models, we describe simulations designed to identify and compare Arctic storms at uniform low resolution (1 degree), at uniform high resolution (1/8 degree), and at variable resolution (1 degree to 1/8 degree). High-resolution simulations resolve more fine-scale structure and extremes, such as storms, in the atmosphere than a uniform low-resolution simulation. However, the computational cost of running a globally uniform high-resolution simulation is often prohibitive. The variable resolution tool in atmospheric general circulation models permits regional high-resolution solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The storms are identified using the open-source search algorithm, Stride Search. The uniform high-resolution simulation has over 50% more storms than the uniform low-resolution and over 25% more storms than the variable resolution simulations. Storm statistics from each of the simulations is presented and compared with reanalysis. We propose variable resolution as a cost-effective means of investigating physics/dynamics coupling in the Arctic environment. Future work will include comparisons with observed storms to investigate tuning parameters for high resolution models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2016-7402 A

  15. CARROT SEED GROWING THROUGH WINTERING SEEDLINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Zvedenuk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of research work on carrot seed growing through wintering seedlings carried out at laboratory of seed studies and seed production of Transnistrian Research Institute of Agriculture, on the soil of the first terrace at the rive Dniester were presented in the article. Seed bearing plants of garden carrot ‘Krasavka’ were the object of the study. The seeds were sown to produce the seedlings on 15-16 August. In the first decade of December the plants were covered with white agrotextile with density 23g/m2 that was removed at the beginning of April. The proportion of plant that passed the winter depending on a year of cultivation was 95-100% under argotextile, and 50-80% in open plot. The plants under agrotextile reached 28 cm a high and had 5-7 well-developed leaves, while those on the open plot were at phase of active foliage growing about 10-13 cm. long. Thus, for early mechanized planting in optimal terms the wintering seedlings grown under agrotextile had the best biometrical characteristics. Moreover the outcome of carrot seedlings was 1.2-1.25 million per hectare. Such quantity of seedlings was sufficient to plant 9-10 ha of carrot plants, where the coefficient of multiplication reached 9-10, and only 3 when growing seeds through mother plant as biennial culture. Viability of seed plants grown through seedlings was 100%. Losses of plant with weight 120-150 grams from damage caused by diseases was 23%. The seed yield, when growing seedlings was 639 kg/ha, but growing through plants was 332 kg/ha. The seed outcome suitable for precise mechanized sowing through seedling growing was 77%, where seed germination was 90%, with seed fraction 1.51 and >2.0 mm. It was essentially improved their yielding characteristics. Seed outcome from this fraction obtained through planting method was 32%. The proportion of seeds in fraction 1-1.5 mm was 68%. For mechanized single-seed sowing, the seeds can be used only after mini-coating. The seed

  16. Efficiency of foliar dressing of winter wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Л. В. Худолій

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To elaborate winter wheat cultivation technologies based on balanced fertilizer system that combines application of mineral fertilizers and the increase of their efficiency by the use of preparations with microelements. Methods. Field and laboratory studies, mathematical and statistical analysis. Results. During 2011–2013, the effect of cultivation technologies on the formation of yield and quality of winter wheat varie­ty ‘Benefis’ (pea is a predecessor was studied. In case of alternative technologies that provided adding only by-products of the predecessor, the yield of winter wheat was 3.73 t/ha when using integrated protection system, and it was increased to 4.22 t/ha with grain quality of the 4th–5th class of the group B when foliar dressing was applied. Resource saving technologies of cultivation with restricted use of fertilizers (Р45К45N30(II+30(IV provided productivity at the level of 5.19–5.61 t/ha with grain quality of the 2nd–3rd class of the group A. Grain yield of 6.27 t/ha of the 2nd class quality was obtained by the use of intensive cultivation technology, which included application of mineral fertilizers (Р90К90N30(II+60(IV+30(VIII in addition to the use of predecessor’s by-products and foliar dressing. The highest yield of grain (6.71 t/ha on average during all years of the study with the 1st class of the group A quality was provided by energy-intensive technology, which included application of P135K135N60(II+75(IV+45(VIII with embedding of predecessor’s by-products into the soil and foliar dressing. Conclusions. It was established that in the northern part of the Forest-Steppe zone of Ukraine the highest productivity of winter wheat was obtained in dark gray podzolic soils using the energy-intensive technology with application of P135K135N60(II+75(IV+45(VIII against the background of predecessor’s by-products embedded into the soil in case of integrated plant protection, and foliar dres

  17. Mechanical weed control in organic winter wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Euro Pannacci

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Three field experiments were carried out in organic winter wheat in three consecutive years (exp. 1, 2005-06; exp. 2, 2006- 07; exp. 3, 2007-08 in central Italy (42°57’ N - 12°22’ E, 165 m a.s.l. in order to evaluate the efficacy against weeds and the effects on winter wheat of two main mechanical weed control strategies: i spring tine harrowing used at three different application times (1 passage at T1, 2 passages at the time T1, 1 passage at T1 followed by 1 passage at T1 + 14 days in the crop sowed at narrow (traditional row spacing (0.15 m; and ii split-hoeing and finger-weeder, alone and combined at T1, in the crop sowed at wider row spacing (0.30 m. At the time T1 winter wheat was at tillering and weeds were at the cotyledons-2 true leaves growth stage. The experimental design was a randomized block with four replicates. Six weeks after mechanical treatments, weed ground cover (% was rated visually using the Braun-Blanquet coverabundance scale; weeds on three squares (0.6×0.5 m each one per plot were collected, counted, weighed, dried in oven at 105°C to determine weed density and weed above-ground dry biomass. At harvest, wheat ears density, grain yield, weight of 1000 seeds and hectolitre weight were recorded. Total weed flora was quite different in the three experiments. The main weed species were: Polygonum aviculare L. (exp. 1 and 2, Fallopia convolvulus (L. Á. Löve (exp. 1 and 3, Stachys annua (L. L. (exp. 1, Anagallis arvensis L. (exp. 2, Papaver rhoeas L. (exp.3, Veronica hederifolia L. (exp. 3. In the winter wheat sowed at narrow rows, 2 passages with spring-tine harrowing at the same time seems to be the best option in order to reconcile a good efficacy with the feasibility of treatment. In wider rows spacing the best weed control was obtained by split hoeing alone or combined with finger-weeder. The grain yield, on average 10% higher in narrow rows, the lower costs and the good selectivity of spring-tine harrowing

  18. NS Pudarka: A new winter wheat cultivar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hristov Nikola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The high-yielding, medium late winter wheat cultivar NS Pudarka was developed by crossing genetic divergent parents: line NMNH-07 and cv. NS 40S and Simonida. In cultivar NS Pudarka genes responsible for high yield potential, very good technological quality, resistance to lodging, low temperature and diseases, were successfully combined. It was registered by Ministry of agriculture, forestry and water management of Serbia Republic in 2013. This cultivar has wide adaptability and stability of yield that enable growing in different environments with optimal agricultural practice. On the base of technological quality this cultivar belongs to the second quality class, A2 farinograph subgroup and second technological group.

  19. Spatial variability of trends in hydrological extremes induced by orographically enhanced rainfall events due to westerly atmospheric circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, L; Drogue, G; Poirier, C; Hoffmann, L

    2005-01-01

    Since the mid 1970s, the number of days with westerly atmospheric circulations has strongly increased during winter months. As a consequence, rainfall totals, rainfall event duration and intensity have been subject to significant positive trends throughout the Mosel river basin. However, the trends identified through the non-parametrical test named Kendall's tau have shown to be spatially varying. The intensity of the trends appears to be directly linked to orographic obstacles that are well known to have a strong influence on average rainfall totals. A direct consequence of the changes having affected winter rainfall under westerly atmospheric circulations on the one hand and the spatial variability of these changes on the other hand, is a spatially varying positive trend in maximum winter streamflow. Thus, even though a clear large-scale change has affected winter rainfall over the past decades, its intensity is either strongly moderated or enhanced by orographic obstacles. The related changes in streamflow are directly dependent on the spatial variability of the changed rainfall characteristics.

  20. Sediment Transport Processes in a West-central Florida Open Marine Marsh Tidal Creek; the Role of Tides and Extra-tropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Lynn A.; Hine, Albert C.; Luther, Mark E.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Wright, Eric E.

    1995-08-01

    The extensive open marine marshes on Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast constitute one of the largest continuous coastal marsh systems in the U.S.A. and are characterized by (1) the absence of an apparent modern or relict sediment supply, (2) a thin 1-2 m sediment veneer overlying highly karstified bedrock and (3) both low wave and low tidal energy regimes. More importantly, the Florida open marine marsh system appears to be keeping pace with current rates of sea-level rise in spite of a limited inorganic sediment supply and low tidal energies. Although the magnitudes and directions of suspended solid transport and the processes controlling these transports have been rigorously documented for other U.S.A. marsh systems, they have not been documented in the Florida marsh system. Total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations, current speeds and water levels were monitored in Cedar Creek, Florida, so that the TSS loads could be calculated and the processes exerting control over material exchange could be determined. Both TSS concentration and load are modulated by spring/neap variations and time-velocity asymmetries in the tidal currents. Concentrations at the creek mouth increase by as much as two orders of magnitude during strong wind events due to the presence of waves; however, large net sediment loads appear to be related to the coupled effects of waves and large tidal prisms. Waves initially mobilize sediments in the adjacent embayment but increased tidal prisms, and the associated higher velocities, are requisite for transport of this material further into the creek. Large tidal prisms may be the result of astronomically high tides or meteorologically forced tides. In Cedar Creek, the most important meteorological events affecting sedimentary processes are extra-tropical storms. This is because they occur at much higher frequencies than tropical storms and hurricanes, even though the latter are more potent and potentially could transport greater amounts of material

  1. Ocean circulation generated magnetic signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manoj, C.; Kuvshinov, A.; Maus, S.

    2006-01-01

    of ocean tidal signatures in the CHAMP magnetic field data we estimate the ocean magnetic signals of steady flow using a global 3-D EM numerical solution. The required velocity data are from the ECCO ocean circulation experiment and alternatively from the OCCAM model for higher resolution. We assume......Conducting ocean water, as it flows through the Earth's magnetic field, generates secondary electric and magnetic fields. An assessment of the ocean-generated magnetic fields and their detectability may be of importance for geomagnetism and oceanography. Motivated by the clear identification...... an Earth's conductivity model with a surface thin shell of variable conductance with a realistic ID mantle underneath. Simulations using both models predict an amplitude range of +/-2 nT at Swarm altitude (430 km). However at sea level, the higher resolution simulation predicts a higher strength...

  2. Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D

    2018-02-01

    We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

  3. Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.

    2018-02-01

    We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

  4. Standing and Travelling Wave Contributions to the Persistent Ridge-Trough Over North America During Winter 2013/14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watt-Meyer, O.; Kushner, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    The winter season over North America during 2013/14 was dominated by a persistent ridge-trough that brought warm and dry conditions to the southwestern U.S., and markedly cold temperatures to central and eastern North America [Wang et al., 2014; Hartmann, 2015]. In addition, several cold air outbreaks occurred during the winter season, the strongest of which was around 7 January 2014 and led to minimum daily temperature records being set at many weather stations including Atlanta, Austin, Chicago and New York [Screen et al., in press]. This study uses a novel decomposition of wave variability into standing and travelling components [Watt-Meyer and Kushner, 2015] to diagnose the anomalous circulation of the 2013/14 winter season. This spectral decomposition is an improvement on previous methods because it explicitly accounts for the covariance between standing and travelling waves, and because the real-space components of the signal can be easily reconstructed. An index representing the ridge-trough dipole is computed using mid-tropospheric heights and shown to be well correlated with surface temperatures over central and eastern North America. The contributions to this dipole index from standing waves, westward travelling waves, and eastward travelling waves are calculated. The analysis demonstrates that the cold air outbreak of 7 January 2014 was driven by a synoptic wave of record breaking amplitude intensifying a persistent background amplification of the typical ridge-trough structure seen during North American winter.

  5. A blood circulation model for reference man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Williams, L.R.

    1996-01-01

    A dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersion of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravenous injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The model partitions the blood volume into 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chamber, left heart chamber, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the aorta and large arteries, and venous return via the large veins. Model results were compared to data obtained from injection of carbon 11 labeled carbon monoxide or rubidium 86

  6. A blood circulation model for reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Williams, L.R. [Indiana Univ., South Bend, IN (United States). Div. of Liberal Arts and Sciences

    1996-12-31

    A dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersion of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravenous injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The model partitions the blood volume into 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chamber, left heart chamber, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the aorta and large arteries, and venous return via the large veins. Model results were compared to data obtained from injection of carbon 11 labeled carbon monoxide or rubidium 86.

  7. Role of Circulating Fibrocytes in Cardiac Fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Rong-Jie; Su, Zi-Zhuo; Liang, Shu-Min; Chen, Yu-Yang; Shu, Xiao-Rong; Nie, Ru-Qiong; Wang, Jing-Feng; Xie, Shuang-Lun

    2016-02-05

    It is revealed that circulating fibrocytes are elevated in patients/animals with cardiac fibrosis, and this review aims to provide an introduction to circulating fibrocytes and their role in cardiac fibrosis. This review is based on the data from 1994 to present obtained from PubMed. The search terms were "circulating fibrocytes " and "cardiac fibrosis ". Articles and critical reviews, which are related to circulating fibrocytes and cardiac fibrosis, were selected. Circulating fibrocytes, which are derived from hematopoietic stem cells, represent a subset of peripheral blood mononuclear cells exhibiting mixed morphological and molecular characteristics of hematopoietic and mesenchymal cells (CD34+/CD45+/collagen I+). They can produce extracellular matrix and many cytokines. It is shown that circulating fibrocytes participate in many fibrotic diseases, including cardiac fibrosis. Evidence accumulated in recent years shows that aging individuals and patients with hypertension, heart failure, coronary heart disease, and atrial fibrillation have more circulating fibrocytes in peripheral blood and/or heart tissue, and this elevation of circulating fibrocytes is correlated with the degree of fibrosis in the hearts. Circulating fibrocytes are effector cells in cardiac fibrosis.

  8. Aspen Winter Conferences on High Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2011-02-12

    The 2011 Aspen Winter Conference on Particle Physics was held at the Aspen Center for Physics from February 12 to February 18, 2011. Ninety-four participants from ten countries, and several universities and national labs attended the workshop titled, "New Data From the Energy Frontier." There were 54 formal talks, and a considerable number of informal discussions held during the week. The week's events included a public lecture ("The Hunt for the Elusive Higgs Boson" given by Ben Kilminster from Ohio State University) and attended by 119 members of the public, and a physics cafe geared for high schoolers that is a discussion with physicists. The 2011 Aspen Winter Conference on Astroparticle physics held at the Aspen Center for Physics was "Indirect and Direct Detection of Dark Matter." It was held from February 6 to February 12, 2011. The 70 participants came from 7 countries and attended 53 talks over five days. Late mornings through the afternoon are reserved for informal discussions. In feedback received from participants, it is often these unplanned chats that produce the most excitement due to working through problems with fellow physicists from other institutions and countries or due to incipient collaborations. In addition, Blas Cabrera of Stanford University gave a public lecture titled "What Makes Up Dark Matter." There were 183 members of the general public in attendance. Before the lecture, 45 people attended the physics cafe to discuss dark matter. This report provides the attendee lists, programs, and announcement posters for each event.

  9. Regional greenhouse gas emissions from cultivation of winter wheat and winter rapeseed for biofuels in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsgaard, Lars; Olesen, Jørgen E; Hermansen, John Erik

    2013-01-01

    by such regional factors as soil conditions, climate and input of agrochemicals. Here we analysed at a regional scale the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with cultivation of winter wheat for bioethanol and winter rapeseed for rapeseed methyl ester (RME) under Danish conditions. Emitted CO2 equivalents...... (CO2eq) were quantified from the footprints of CO2, CH4 and N2O associated with cultivation and the emissions were allocated between biofuel energy and co-products. Greenhouse gas emission at the national level (Denmark) was estimated to 22.1 g CO2eq MJ−1 ethanol for winter wheat and 26.0 g CO2eq MJ−1...... RME for winter rapeseed. Results at the regional level (level 2 according to the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics [NUTS]) ranged from 20.0 to 23.9 g CO2eq MJ−1 ethanol and from 23.5 to 27.6 g CO2eq MJ−1 RME. Thus, at the regional level emission results varied by up to 20%. Differences...

  10. Winter-APK voor bijen : Helpt u deze winter mee bij het praktijkonderzoek?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Som de Cerff, B.; Cornelissen, B.; Moens, F.

    2013-01-01

    Om de risico’s van een aanrijding bij sneeuw en gladheid te verminderen, laten steeds meer automobilisten bij het monteren van winterbanden ook een wintercontrole uitvoeren. Zou een dergelijke controle voor de winter ook schade aan onze volken in de vorm van wintersterfte kunnen verminderen? Dat zou

  11. Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents Sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2014-01-01

    Abnormal sea-ice retreat over the Barents Sea during early winter has been considered a leading driver of recent midlatitude severe winters over Eurasia. However, causal relationships between such retreat and the atmospheric circulation anomalies remains uncertain. Using a reanalysis dataset, we found that poleward shift of a sea surface temperature front over the Gulf Stream likely induces warm southerly advection and consequent sea-ice decline over the Barents Sea sector, and a cold anomaly over Eurasia via planetary waves triggered over the Gulf Stream region. The above mechanism is supported by the steady atmospheric response to the diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream region obtained with a linear baroclinic model. The remote atmospheric response from the Gulf Stream would be amplified over the Barents Sea region via interacting with sea-ice anomaly, promoting the warm Arctic and cold Eurasian pattern. (letter)

  12. Extreme hydrometeorological events in the Peruvian Central Andes during austral summer and their relationship with the large-scale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, Juan C.

    In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme rainfall events of the opposite sign occur over northeastern Brazil (NEB) due to enhanced (inhibited) convective activity in conjunction with a strengthened (weakened) Nordeste Low. Cold episodes in the Mantaro Basin are grouped in three types: weak, strong and extraordinary cold episodes. Weak and strong cold episodes in the MB are mainly associated with a weakening of the BH-NL system due to tropical-extratropical interactions. Both types of cold episodes are associated with westerly wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels aloft the Peruvian Central Andes, which inhibit the influx of humid air masses from the lowlands to the east and hence limit the potential for development of convective cloud cover. The resulting clear sky conditions cause nighttime temperatures to drop, leading to cold extremes below the 10-percentile. Extraordinary cold episodes in the MB are associated with cold and dry polar air advection at all tropospheric levels toward the central Peruvian Andes. Therefore, weak and strong cold episodes in the MB appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection, while the latter plays an important role for extraordinary cold episodes only.

  13. Seasonal circulation over the Catalan inner-shelf (northwest Mediterranean Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grifoll, Manel; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Pelegrí, Josep L.; Espino, Manuel; Warner, John C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín

    2013-01-01

    This study characterizes the seasonal cycle of the Catalan inner-shelf circulation using observations and complementary numerical results. The relation between seasonal circulation and forcing mechanisms is explored through the depth-averaged momentum balance, for the period between May 2010 and April 2011, when velocity observations were partially available. The monthly-mean along-shelf flow is mainly controlled by the along-shelf pressure gradient and by surface and bottom stresses. During summer, fall, and winter, the along-shelf momentum balance is dominated by the barotropic pressure gradient and local winds. During spring, both wind stress and pressure gradient act in the same direction and are compensated by bottom stress. In the cross-shelf direction the dominant forces are in geostrophic balance, consistent with dynamic altimetry data.

  14. Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qian; Dixon, Timothy H; Myers, Paul G; Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don; van den Broeke, M R

    2016-01-22

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of ocean thermohaline circulation. Melting of Greenland's ice sheet is freshening the North Atlantic; however, whether the augmented freshwater flux is disrupting the AMOC is unclear. Dense Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by winter cooling of saline North Atlantic water and subsequent convection, is a key component of the deep southward return flow of the AMOC. Although LSW formation recently decreased, it also reached historically high values in the mid-1990s, making the connection to the freshwater flux unclear. Here we derive a new estimate of the recent freshwater flux from Greenland using updated GRACE satellite data, present new flux estimates for heat and salt from the North Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and explain recent variations in LSW formation. We suggest that changes in LSW can be directly linked to recent freshening, and suggest a possible link to AMOC weakening.

  15. Implications of climate change on winter road networks in Ontario's Far North and northern Manitoba, Canada, based on climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hori, Y.; Cheng, V. Y. S.; Gough, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    A network of winter roads in northern Canada connects a number of remote First Nations communities to all-season roads and rails. The extent of the winter road networks depends on the geographic features, socio-economic activities, and the numbers of remote First Nations so that it differs among the provinces. The most extensive winter road networks below the 60th parallel south are located in Ontario and Manitoba, serving 32 and 18 communities respectively. In recent years, a warmer climate has resulted in a shorter winter road season and an increase in unreliable road conditions; thus, limiting access among remote communities. This study focused on examining the future freezing degree-days (FDDs) accumulations during the winter road season at selected locations throughout Ontario's Far North and northern Manitoba using recent climate model projections from the multi-model ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. First, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall correlation test and the Theil-Sen method were used to identify any statistically significant trends between FDDs and time for the base period (1981-2010). Second, future climate scenarios are developed for the study areas using statistical downscaling methods. This study also examined the lowest threshold of FDDs during the winter road construction in a future period. Our previous study established the lowest threshold of 380 FDDs, which derived from the relationship between the FDDs and the opening dates of James Bay Winter Road near the Hudson-James Bay coast. Thus, this study applied the threshold measure as a conservative estimate of the minimum threshold of FDDs to examine the effects of climate change on the winter road construction period.

  16. Simulation of Winter Wheat Yield with WOFOST in County Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Shangjie; Pei, Zhiyuan; He, Yajuan; Wang, Lianlin; Ma, Zhiping

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Winter wheat is mainly planted in water shortage area, such as North China and Northwest China. As a key field management measure, irrigation plays an important role in the production of winter wheat. This paper focuses on the improvement of regional winter wheat yield estimation technique in county scale by adjusting the irrigation management measure in crop growth model. The WOFOST (World Food Study) model was used by dividing the whole county into a number of EMUs (...

  17. Wintering bald eagle trends in northern Arizona, 1975-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teryl G. Grubb

    2003-01-01

    Between 1975 and 2000, 4,525 sightings of wintering bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) were recorded at Mormon Lake in northern Arizona. Numbers of wintering eagles fluctuated little in the 20 years from 1975 through 1994 (5.5 ± 3.0 mean sightings per day). However, during the winters of 1995 through 1997 local record highs of 59 to 118 eagles...

  18. Evaluation and Economic Value of Winter Weather Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Snyder, Derrick William

    2014-01-01

    State and local highway agencies spend millions of dollars each year to deploy winter operation teams to plow snow and de-ice roadways. Accurate and timely weather forecast information is critical for effective decision making. Students from Purdue University partnered with the Indiana Department of Transportation to create an experimental winter weather forecast service for the 2012-2013 winter season in Indiana to assist in achieving these goals. One forecast product, an hourly timeline of ...

  19. Circulation and Respiration in Ice-covered Alaskan Arctic Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntyre, S.; Cortés, A.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic lakes are ice-covered 9 months of the year. For some of this time, the sediments heat the overlying water, and respiration in the sediments increases specific conductivity, depletes oxygen, and produces greenhouse gases (GHG). Whether anoxia forms and whether the greenhouse gases are sequestered at depth depends on processes inducing circulation and upward fluxes. Similarly, whether the GHG are released at ice off depends on the extent of vertical mixing at that time. Using time series meteorological data and biogeochemical arrays with temperature, specific conductivity, and optical oxygen sensors in 5 lakes ranging from 1 to 150 ha, we illustrate the connections between meteorological forcing and within lake processes including gravity currents resulting from increased density just above the sediment water interface and internal waves including those induced by winds acting on the surface of the ice and at ice off. CO2 production was well predicted by the initial rate of oxygen drawdown near the bottom at ice on and that the upward density flux depended on lake size, with values initially high in all lakes but near molecular in lakes of a few hectares in size by mid-winter. Both CO2 production and within lake vertical fluxes were independent of the rate of cooling in fall and subsequent within lake temperatures under the ice. Anoxia formed near the sediments in all 5 lakes with the concentration of CH4 dependent, in part, on lake size and depth. Twenty to fifty percent of the greenhouse gases produced under the ice remained in the lakes by the time thermal stratification was established in summer despite considerable internal wave induced mixing at the time of ice off. These observations and analysis lay a framework for understanding the links between within lake hydrodynamics, within year variability, and the fraction of greenhouse gases produced over the winter which evade at ice off.

  20. The History of Winter: teachers as scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, L.; Courville, Z.; Wasilewski, P. J.; Gow, T.; Bender, K. J.

    2013-12-01

    The History of Winter (HOW) is a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center-funded teacher enrichment program that was started by Dr. Peter Wasilewski (NASA), Dr. Robert Gabrys (NASA) and Dr. Tony Gow (Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, or CRREL) in 2001 and continues with support and involvement of scientists from both the NASA Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory and CREEL. The program brings educators mostly from middle and high schools but also from state parks, community colleges and other institutions from across the US to the Northwood School (a small, private boarding school) in Lake Placid, NY for one week to learn about several facets of winter, polar, and snow research, including the science and history of polar ice core research, lake ice formation and structure, snow pack science, winter ecology, and remote sensing including current and future NASA cryospheric missions. The program receives support from the Northwood School staff to facilitate the program. The goal of the program is to create 'teachers as scientists' which is achieved through several hands-on field experiences in which the teachers have the opportunity to work with polar researchers from NASA, CRREL and partner Universities to dig and sample snow pits, make ice thin sections from lake ice, make snow shelters, and observe under-ice lake ecology. The hands-on work allows the teachers to use the same tools and techniques used in polar research while simultaneously introducing science concepts and activities to support their classroom work. The ultimate goal of the program is to provide the classroom teachers with the opportunity to learn about current and timely cryospheric research as well as to engage in real fieldwork experiences. The enthusiasm generated during the week-long program is translated into classroom activities with guidance from scientists, teachers and educational professionals. The opportunity to engage with polar researchers, both young investigators and renowned

  1. Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Barriopedro, D.; García-Herrera, R.; Huth, Radan

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 113, D14 (2008), D14118/1-D14118/11 ISSN 0148-0227 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3042401; GA AV ČR IAA300420805 Grant - others:VALIMOD(ES) REN2002-04558-C04-01 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : solar activity cycle * atmospheric blocking * climate variability * atmospheric circulation * solar-terrestrial relationships Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.147, year: 2008

  2. Home advantage in the Winter Paralympic Games 1976-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Darryl; Ramchandani, Girish

    2017-01-01

    There is a limited amount of home advantage research concerned with winter sports. There is also a distinct lack of studies that investigate home advantage in the context of para sport events. This paper addresses this gap in the knowledge by examining home advantage in the Winter Paralympic Games. Using a standardised measure of success, we compared the performances of host nations at home with their own performances away from home between 1976 and 2014. Both country level and individual sport level analysis is conducted for this time period. Comparisons are also drawn with the Winter Olympic Games since 1992, the point from which both the Winter Olympic Games and the Winter Paralympic Games have been hosted by the same nations and in the same years. Clear evidence of a home advantage effect in the Winter Paralympic Games was found at country level. When examining individual sports, only alpine skiing and cross country skiing returned a significant home advantage effect. When comparing home advantage in the Winter Paralympic Games with the Winter Olympic Games for the last seven host nations (1992-2014), we found that home advantage was generally more pronounced (although not a statistically significant difference) in the case of the former. The causes of home advantage in the Winter Paralympic Games are unclear and should be investigated further.

  3. Energy market barometer report - Winter 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleich, Joachim; Cartel, Melodie; Shao, Evan; Vernay, Anne-Lorene

    2017-01-01

    This Winter 2016 edition of the Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) Energy Market Barometer explores the opinion of French energy experts about the decentralization of the electricity sector in France. French experts were also asked where the focus of French energy policy should be in the next five years. Key findings: - French energy experts sense a clear trend toward the decentralization of the French electricity system; - Technology innovation and self-sufficiency for corporations and municipalities are the two major promises of decentralization; - The major barriers to faster decentralization in France are the high price of energy storage systems and the lack of political will; - 74% of experts believe that energy efficiency should be a top priority for French energy policy in the next five years; - Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and facilitating the decentralization of the electricity sector should also be a top priority for French energy policy in the next five years; - Experts are divided over the future of nuclear energy

  4. Landsat Science Team: 2016 winter meeting summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Todd; Loveland, Thomas; Wulder, Michael A.; Irons, James R.

    2016-01-01

    The winter meeting of the joint U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)–NASA Landsat Science Team (LST) was held January 12-14, 2016, at Virginia Tech University in Blacksburg, VA. LST co-chairs Tom Loveland [USGS’s Earth Resources Observation and Science Data Center (EROS)—Senior Scientist] and Jim Irons [NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)—Landsat 8 Project Scientist] welcomed more than 50 participants to the three-day meeting. The main objectives of this meeting focused on identifying priorities and approaches to improve the global moderate-resolution satellite record. Overall, the meeting was geared more towards soliciting team member recommendations on several rapidly evolving issues, than on providing updates on individual research activities. All the presentations given at the meeting are available at landsat.usgs. gov//science_LST_january2016.php.

  5. Chemical profile of Taxodium distichum winter cones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đapić Nina M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is concerned with the chemical profile of Taxodium distichum winter cones. The extract obtained after maceration in absolute ethanol was subjected to qualitative analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and quantification was done by gas chromatography/ flame ionization detector. The chromatogram revealed the presence of 53 compounds, of which 33 compounds were identified. The extract contained oxygenated monoterpenes (12.42%, sesquiterpenes (5.18%, oxygenated sesquiterpenes (17.41%, diterpenes (1.15%, and oxygenated diterpenes (30.87%, while the amount of retinoic acid was 0.32%. Monoacylglycerols were detected in the amount of 4.32%. The most abundant compounds were: caryophyllene oxide (14.27%, 6,7-dehydro-ferruginol (12.49%, bornyl acetate (10.96%, 6- deoxy-taxodione (9.50% and trans-caryophyllene (4.20%.

  6. Natural circulation in single-phase and two-phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheung, F.B.; El-Genk, M.S.

    1989-01-01

    Natural circulation usually arises in a closed loop between a heat source and a heat sink were the fluid motion is driven by density difference. It may also occur in enclosures or cavities where the flow is induced primarily by temperature or concentration gradients within the fluid. The subject has recently received special attention by the heat transfer and nuclear reactor safety communities because of it importance to the areas of energy extraction, decay, heat removal in nuclear reactors, solar and geothermal heating, and cooling of electronic equipment. Although many new results and physical insights have been gained of the various natural circulation phenomena, a number of critical issues remain unresolved. These include, for example, transition from laminar to turbulent flow, buoyancy-induced turbulent flow modeling, change of flow regimes, flow field visualization, variable property effects, and flow instability. This symposium volume contains papers presented in the Natural Circulation in Single-Phase and Two-Phase Flow session at the 1989 Winter Annual Meeting of ASME, by authors from different countries including the United States, Japan, Canada, and Brazil. The papers deal with experimental and theoretical studies as well as state-of-the-art reviews, covering a broad spectrum of topics in natural circulation including: variable-conductance thermosyphons, microelectronic chip cooling, natural circulation in anisotropic porous media and in cavities, heat transfer in flat plat solar collectors, shutdown heat removal in fast reactors, cooling of light-water and heavy-water reactors. The breadth of papers contained in this volume clearly reflect the importance of the current interest in natural circulation as a means for passive cooling and heating

  7. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Jennifer A.; Chan, Weihan; Leathers, Daniel J.; Miller, James R.; Veron, Dana E.

    2009-04-01

    The dramatic decline in Arctic summer sea-ice cover is a compelling indicator of change in the global climate system and has been attributed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic effects. Through its role in regulating the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, ice loss is anticipated to influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. By combining satellite measurements of sea-ice extent and conventional atmospheric observations, we find that varying summer ice conditions are associated with large-scale atmospheric features during the following autumn and winter well beyond the Arctic's boundary. Mechanisms by which the atmosphere “remembers” a reduction in summer ice cover include warming and destabilization of the lower troposphere, increased cloudiness, and slackening of the poleward thickness gradient that weakens the polar jet stream. This ice-atmosphere relationship suggests a potential long-range outlook for weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.

  8. On the relation between ionospheric winter anomalies and solar wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumi, G.C.

    2001-01-01

    There are two different winter anomalies. A small one that appears in connection with ionization at relatively low latitudes in the bottom of the D-region of the ionosphere. There, the electron densities in the winter happen to be less than should be expected. On the other hand, the classic winter anomaly is present when in the winter the upper D-region, again at relatively low latitudes, has more ionization than should be expected. Both these effects are due to the slant compression of the geomagnetic field produced by the solar wind in the wind in the winter season (which is, of course, the summer season when reference is made to events in the other hemisphere). It is shown that the small winter anomaly is a consequence of a hemispheric imbalance in the flux of galactic cosmic rays determined by the obliquely distorted geomagnetic field. It is shown that the standard winter anomaly can be ascribed to the influx of a super solar wind, which penetrates into the Earth's polar atmosphere down to E-region, heights and, duly concentrated through a funneling action at the winter pole of the distorted geomagnetic field, slows down the winter polar vortex. An equatorward motion of the polar air with its content of nitric oxide brings about the excess of ionization in the upper D-region at lower latitudes. The experimentally observed rhythmic recurrence of the upper winter anomaly is correlated to a possible rhythmic recurrence of the super solar wind. The actual detection of the upper winter anomaly could yield some information on the velocity of the basic solar wind. A by-product of the present analysis, the determination of Γ, the coefficient of collisional detachment of the electrons from the O 2 - ions, is presented in the Appendix

  9. Impact of Climate Change on Winter Chilling Trend for Deciduous Fruit Trees (Case Study: Hamadan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. sabziparvar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction :Higher temperature as the result of climate change are likely to affect horticultural production. Deciduous fruit trees need winter chilling to break winter dormancy. Climate plays an important role in the successful production of deciduous fruit. Winter dormancy is one of the key factors of the annual cycle of deciduous fruit and nut trees along with the following breaking of the dormant state. This state is maintained through the winter period each year to protect against damaging cold temperatures. To be released from dormancy, trees require exposure to a predetermined quantity of cold temperatures in a process known as winter chilling or vernalization. Insufficient chilling can lead to sporadic and light bud break, poor fruit development, small fruit size and uneven ripening times. The main objective of this study is to investigate climate change effect on the winter chilling requirement (WCR in Hamadan. Materials and Methods:This research was performed based on the General Circulation Models (BCM2, HADCM3,GFCM2 and IPCM4 and different emission scenarios (A2, B1, A1B, as recommended by the Forth Report of the IPCC. The output of the GCMs was downscaled by LARS-WG model. The hourly weather data were generated as the inputs of three different Chilling Requirement Models (CRMs, and the winter chilling trend of deciduous fruit trees were predicted for Hamadan. The projected daily temperature time series were then converted into hourly temperatures. The projected hourly temperature data were run through each of the three chill models for all four GCMs in different scenarios. Three chill models [the 0.0–7.2°C (CH, the Utah (UT, and the Utah Positive (UTPos models] were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation in Hamadan, according to localized temperature change related to increases in global average temperatures. In addition, the winter chilling requirement time series were divided into two periods: baseline and future

  10. The association of weather patterns with haze episodes: Recognition by PM2.5 oriented circulation classification applied in Xiamen, Southeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Wenyuan; Zhan, Jianqiong

    2017-11-01

    Investigating the association between weather circulation patterns and high PM2.5 episodes is useful for interpreting the connection between physical weather and chemical weather. Principal component analysis (PCA) is often applied to decompose circulation modes but has limitations for studying high PM2.5 events related circulation patterns. This study describes an improved circulation classification integrated with PCA and k-means algorithm oriented to high local PM2.5. The classification scheme was applied in Xiamen, southeastern China, when local PM2.5 exceeded 75 μg m- 3 (the 24-hour limit Chinese Ambient Air Quality Grade II standard) during the winter 2013. Nine typical circulation patterns were classified. Circulation patterns related to the highest PM2.5 concentrations were associated with a negative pressure anomaly at 850 hPa over the Sea of Japan which yielded a strong transport of PM2.5 from northern China during windy days. The improved classification methodology links large-scale circulation to local PM2.5 in target city and is able to distinguish possibly different circulation patterns over continual haze episodes. This clustering method can be applied in any cities and would be useful for predicting chemical weather and serving local environmental policymakers.

  11. Cross-seasonal patterns of avian influenza virus in breeding and wintering migratory birds: a flyway perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Nichola J.; Takekawa, John Y.; Cardona, Carol J.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2012-01-01

    The spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in nature is intrinsically linked with the movements of wild birds. Wild birds are the reservoirs for the virus and their migration may facilitate the circulation of AIV between breeding and wintering areas. This cycle of dispersal has become widely accepted; however, there are few AIV studies that present cross-seasonal information. A flyway perspective is critical for understanding how wild birds contribute to the persistence of AIV over large spatial and temporal scales, with implications for how to focus surveillance efforts and identify risks to public health. This study characterized spatio-temporal infection patterns in 10,389 waterfowl at two important locations within the Pacific Flyway--breeding sites in Interior Alaska and wintering sites in California's Central Valley during 2007-2009. Among the dabbling ducks sampled, the northern shoveler (Anas clypeata) had the highest prevalence of AIV at both breeding (32.2%) and wintering (5.2%) locations. This is in contrast to surveillance studies conducted in other flyways that have identified the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and northern pintail (Anas acuta) as hosts with the highest prevalence. A higher diversity of AIV subtypes was apparent at wintering (n=42) compared with breeding sites (n=17), with evidence of mixed infections at both locations. Our study suggests that wintering sites may act as an important mixing bowl for transmission among waterfowl in a flyway, creating opportunities for the reassortment of the virus. Our findings shed light on how the dynamics of AIV infection of wild bird populations can vary between the two ends of a migratory flyway.

  12. Seasonal prediction of winter haze days in the north central North China Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the winter (December–February haze pollution over the north central North China Plain (NCP has become severe. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, two new statistical schemes were established using the multiple linear regression (MLR and the generalized additive model (GAM. By analyzing the associated increment of atmospheric circulation, seven leading predictors were selected to predict the upcoming winter haze days over the NCP (WHDNCP. After cross validation, the root mean square error and explained variance of the MLR (GAM prediction model was 3.39 (3.38 and 53 % (54 %, respectively. For the final predicted WHDNCP, both of these models could capture the interannual and interdecadal trends and the extremums successfully. Independent prediction tests for 2014 and 2015 also confirmed the good predictive skill of the new schemes. The predicted bias of the MLR (GAM prediction model in 2014 and 2015 was 0.09 (−0.07 and −3.33 (−1.01, respectively. Compared to the MLR model, the GAM model had a higher predictive skill in reproducing the rapid and continuous increase of WHDNCP after 2010.

  13. Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui

    2012-01-01

    An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

  14. Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Förster, Kristian; Hanzer, Florian; Stoll, Elena; Scaife, Adam A.; MacLachlan, Craig; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Achleitner, Stefan; Strasser, Ulrich

    2018-02-01

    This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r = 0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r = 0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

  15. Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Förster

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5 drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r  =  0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r  =  0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

  16. De la circulation des nourritures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Françoise Lestage

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Tout en provoquant une rupture avec le réseau social d’origine et un isolement plus ou moins conséquent et plus ou moins temporaire, la migration produit une intense activité sociale compensatoire(i.e. les échanges de services et de biens. Dans ce texte, je m’intéresse à l’échange de nourritures entre les migrants mixtèques originaires de l’État de Oaxaca, dans le sud du Mexique, qui vivent et/ou se déplacent en Basse Californie (Mexique et en Californie (États-Unis. Je me propose d’interroger les modalités de maintien et d’extension des réseaux sociaux à travers les dons et le commerce alimentaire, avec pour objectif l’analyse de la reproduction sociale et identitaire dans un contexte de migration.The circulation of food. How Mexican migrants perpetuate and extend social links through the acquisition of food productsOn the one hand, migration tears apart the original social network, creating a somewhat effective and temporary isolation. On the other hand, migration produces an intense social activity (e.g. exchanges of services and goods which makes up for the loneliness of isolation. This text shows how Mixtec migrants from the state of Oaxaca in the South of Mexico, who live in and/or move between Baja California (Mexico and California (United States, perpetuate and extend their social networks through food gifts and trade. Basically, social reproduction in a context of migration is analyzed here.

  17. Development of CO2 circulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donaldson, J.

    1988-01-01

    The development of the basic machine types we have supplied has not been without problems. The Windscale AGR (the prototype AGR) was a small 1.2 MW vertically up circulator with an inlet temperature of 237 deg. C (459 deg. F). Oil leakage problems occurred and were cured in the works test facility and the machine went into service with no other problems. The Horizontal 5 MW machines for Hinkley/Hunterston were not so fortunate with vibration problems, interface corrosion problems (effecting the whole reactor) and material dimensional stability problems. Oil ingress problems did not show up in test work but were later reported from site. These reports were initially exagerated due to the measuring techniques which took the operators some time to resolve. In the vertical 5 MW machines for Hartlepool and Heysham 1 there are two interesting factors, firstly a spar failure and secondly shaft axial stability. Many of the problems were due to modifications at site or our inability to model all aspects of site installation from which lessons for the future can be learned. The latest stations Torness and Heysham II incorporate these lessons. The machines have been designed with so much margin that during the resolution of the reactor control rod gag problems the machines were run continuously at 20% overload (6.3 MW). From an initial accident case of 350 deg. C inlet temperature, this increased to 458 deg. C and now stands at 585 deg. C. No modifications to the impeller were required. The site experience to date is good with no operational problems reported. (author). 4 figs

  18. CAN WINTER DEPRESSION BE PREVENTED BY LIGHT TREATMENT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MEESTERS, Y; LAMBERS, PA; JANSEN, JHC; BOUHUYS, AL; BEERSMA, DGM; VANDENHOOFDAKKER, RH

    1991-01-01

    The administration of light at the development of the first signs of a winter depression appears to prevent it from developing into a full-blown depression. No patient from a group of 10 treated in this way developed any signs of depression during the rest of the winter season, while five of seven

  19. A winter severity index for the state of Maine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Winter maintenance in the Sate of Maine consumes around twenty percent of the Bureau of : Maintenance and Operations budget each year. Costs are directly related to the length and severity : of a winter season. In addition, the cost of materials and ...

  20. Changes occurring in plain, straining and winter yoghurt during the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, winter yoghurt, straining yoghurt and yoghurt samples produced from homogenized and non-homogenized sheep and a mixture of sheep and cows milks were evaluated during the storage periods. Winter yoghurt, straining yoghurt and yoghurt samples were stored in sterile jars in the refrigerator (4°C).

  1. Can winter depression be prevented by light treatment?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meesters, Ybe; Lambers, Petrus A.; Jansen, Jacob; Bouhuys, Antoinette L.; Beersma, Domien G.M.; Hoofdakker, Rutger H. van den

    1991-01-01

    The administration of light at the development of the first signs of a winter depression appears to prevent it from developing into a full-blown depression. No patient from a group of 10 treated in this way developed any signs of depression during the rest of the winter season, while five of seven

  2. The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, A. E.; Looman, C. W.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    1991-01-01

    In most countries, numbers of deaths rise considerably during the winter season. This winter excess in mortality has, however, been declining during recent decades. The causes of this decline are hardly known. This paper attempts to derive a number of hypotheses on the basis of a detailed

  3. The elusive gene for keratolytic winter erythema | Hull | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keratolytic winter erythema (KWE), also known as Oudtshoorn skin disease, is characterised by a cyclical disruption of normal epidermal keratinisation affecting primarily the palmoplantar skin with peeling of the palms and soles, which is worse in the winter. It is a rare monogenic, autosomal dominant condition of unknown ...

  4. Zimbabwean fourth social workers conference and winter school ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Such steps include running the Annual Social Workers Conference & Winter School. This annual observance creates a platform to showcase the goals and accomplishments of diverse social work professionals in the country, give a report on progress and convening a social work winter school for exchanging professional ...

  5. AGROTECHNOLOGY OF WINTER CABBAGE SEED PRODUCTION IN CONDITION OF DAGESTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Velizhanov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Soil-climatic conditions of the South region of Dagestan are suitable for growing of winter cabbage. The yield of winter cab-bage in Dagestan farms is still very low because of low quality of seeds and non'observance of rules of cabbage seed production.

  6. Baraitser–Winter syndrome: An additional Arab patient | Henedy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Baraitser–Winter syndrome: An additional Arab patient. MMA Henedy, MJ Marafie, SJ Abulhasan. Abstract. An Arab child is presented herein with a phenotype that fits the rare Baraitser–Winter syndrome. Her clinical features included a unilateral iris coloboma, ptosis, hypertelorism, epicanthic folds, broad nasal bridge, full ...

  7. Overhead irrigation increased winter chilling and floral bud ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eucalyptus nitens requires a sufficiently cold winter to produce flower buds. In areas in South Africa where E. nitens commercial plantations as well as breeding and production seed orchards are located, winter chilling is often insufficient for floral bud initiation. Hence, under such conditions, E. nitens floral bud and seed ...

  8. Prevalence of hematozoa infections among breeding and wintering Rusty Blackbirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. Barnard; Claudia Mettke-Hofmann; Steven M. Matsuoka

    2010-01-01

    The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has declined precipitously over the past several decades,and stressors on both the breeding and wintering grounds are suspected causes. Over 3 years, we collected blood samples from breeding birds in Alaska and Maine and from wintering birds in Mississippi and Arkansas to determine the prevalence of hematozoan infections at...

  9. The phenotypic diversity and fruit characterization of winter squash ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PRECIOUS

    2010-01-11

    Jan 11, 2010 ... Winter squash are one of the most important Cucurbit crops in Turkey. Winter squash populations show great diversity in morphological characteristics, particularly fruit length, fruit diameter, fruit shape, fruit brightness, skin thickness , flesh thickness and colour in the Black Sea region of. Turkey. In this ...

  10. Changes occurring in plain, straining and winter yoghurt during the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2011-02-28

    Feb 28, 2011 ... Department of Food Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Yuzuncu Yil University, 65080 Van, Turkey. Accepted 18 January ... cow milk for production of winter yoghurt, which is one of the most liked traditional .... Changes occurring in winter yoghurt samples during the storage periods. Impact factor. Factor.

  11. Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. Wang; P. Ciais; S.L. Piao; C. Ottle; P. Brender; F. Maignan; A. Arain; A. Cescatti; D. Gianelle; C. Gough; L Gu; P. Lafleur; T. Laurila; B. Marcolla; H. Margolis; L. Montagnani; E. Moors; N. Saigusa; T. Vesala; G. Wohlfahrt; C. Koven; A. Black; E. Dellwik; A. Don; D. Hollinger; A. Knohl; R. Monson; J. Munger; A. Suyker; A. Varlagin; S. Verma

    2011-01-01

    Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal...

  12. Comparing effects of Winter Universiade (2011) and European ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... both positive and negative effects of these two events have high averages. In other words, positive and negative effects were detected in both the Winter Universiade held in Erzurum and the European Youth Olympic Festival held in Trabzon. Key words: Mega sport events; Local spectator impressions; Winter Universiade; ...

  13. Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Ottlé, C.; Brender, P.; Moors, E.J.

    2011-01-01

    Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the

  14. Downtown People Mover (DPM) Winterization Test Demonstration : Otis Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    The Otis Elevator Company Transportation Technology Division (OTIS-TTD) Downtown People Mover (DPM) Winterization Test Demonstration Final Report covers the 1978-79 and 1979-80 winter periods. Tests were performed at the Otis test track in Denver, Co...

  15. Weed seed germination in winter cereals under contrasting tillage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherner, Ananda

    2015-01-01

    Grass weeds and Gallium aparine are major weed problems in North European arable cropping systems with high proportions of winter crops, especially winter wheat (Clarke et al., 2000; Melander et al., 2008). Problems are accentuated where inverting tillage is omitted, as weed seeds tend to accumul...

  16. Identifying the potential wintering sites of the globally threatened ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Aquatic Warbler is a threatened Afro-Palaearctic migrant with a largely unknown distribution in the winter (non-breeding) season. Protection of wintering sites may be crucial for the conservation of the species. Previous studies have identified extensive areas of north-western sub-Saharan Africa that could potentially be ...

  17. SpaceX Dragon Air Circulation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Brenda; Piatrovich, Siarhei; Prina, Mauro

    2011-01-01

    The Dragon capsule is a reusable vehicle being developed by Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) that will provide commercial cargo transportation to the International Space Station (ISS). Dragon is designed to be a habitable module while it is berthed to ISS. As such, the Dragon Environmental Control System (ECS) consists of pressure control and pressure equalization, air sampling, fire detection, illumination, and an air circulation system. The air circulation system prevents pockets of stagnant air in Dragon that can be hazardous to the ISS crew. In addition, through the inter-module duct, the air circulation system provides fresh air from ISS into Dragon. To utilize the maximum volume of Dragon for cargo packaging, the Dragon ECS air circulation system is designed around cargo rack optimization. At the same time, the air circulation system is designed to meet the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) inter-module and intra-module ventilation requirements and acoustic requirements. A flight like configuration of the Dragon capsule including the air circulation system was recently assembled for testing to assess the design for inter-module and intra-module ventilation and acoustics. The testing included the Dragon capsule, and flight configuration in the pressure section with cargo racks, lockers, all of the air circulation components, and acoustic treatment. The air circulation test was also used to verify the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the Dragon capsule. The CFD model included the same Dragon internal geometry that was assembled for the test. This paper will describe the Dragon air circulation system design which has been verified by testing the system and with CFD analysis.

  18. The thermal and dynamical state of the Antarctic mesopause region during winter/summer transition and the role of stratosphere/mesosphere coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luebken, F. J.; Höffner, J.; Viehl, T. P.; Latteck, R.; Becker, E.; Kaifler, B.; Murphy, D. J.; Morris, R.

    2015-12-01

    The transition of stratospheric circulation at Antarctic latitudes from winter to summer conditions is highly variably from year to year. As has been realized recently, this also affects the winter/summer transition at mesopause altitudes. The Antarctic middle atmosphere therefore offers the unique possibility to study the physical processes involved in the vertical coupling between the stratosphere and the mesosphereduring winter/summer transition, in particular the role of gravity waves. We present new results from the mobile scanning iron lidar of the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Kühlungsborn (IAP) which was in operation at Davis, Antarctica, from December 15, 2010, until December 31, 2012. It measured temperatures in the iron layer (~80-100 km). The lidar can operate under daylight conditions. At Davis, the lidar has achieved at total of 2900 hours of temperature measurements which is presumably the largest nearly continuous data set in Antarctica. In this presentation we concentrate on the winter/summer transition and compare with circulation changes in the stratosphere derived from MERRA. We also compare with the northern hemisphere (NH). The thermal structure around the mesopause at Davis is closely coupled to the general circulation in the stratosphere, more precisely to the transition from winter to summer conditions. In contrast to theoretical expectations we occasionally find the mesopause significantly higher and colder(!) compared to the NH. The mesopause altitudechanges by several kilometers throughout the summer season, which is significantly different from the summer in the northern hemispheric. Depending on altitude, temperatures can be warmer or colder compared to the NH summer. We studied the seasonal variation of polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE). PMSE are strong radar echoes related to ice particles and therefore require very low atmospheric temperatures. The VHF radar frequently detected PMSE. We compare the seasonal

  19. Tracers of diabatic changes in potential temperature and potential vorticity: Integral interpretation in terms of net heating and circulation and applications to model consistency across resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne; Methven, John

    2016-04-01

    Diabatic processes in the atmosphere can be characterised by the changes they produce on potential temperature (θ) and potential vorticity (PV) following an air parcel. Diabatic tracers of θ and PV track the changes undergone by those two variables due to the action of diabatic processes in a Lagrangian frame by splitting θ and PV into components that are materially conserved and components that are diabatically generated. Since diabatic tracers are subject to advection by the three-dimensional wind field, they are useful tools for the investigation of the interaction of diabatic processes with the atmospheric flow and the impact of diabatic processes on the evolution of the atmosphere. In this contribution, we present a novel integral interpretation of diabatic tracers over suitably defined control volumes, which depend on the weather system under consideration. Using two contrasting extratropical cyclones as examples, it is shown that θ tracers can be used to assess and systematically compare the cross-isentropic mass transport around each cyclone, which is related to the amount and distribution of heat produced during each cyclone's development. PV tracers are related to circulation and area-average isentropic vorticity through the application of Stoke's theorem. Using the impermeability theorem for PV, which states there can be no PV flux across isentropic surfaces, it is also shown that cross-isentropic motion within the control volumes does not directly influence circulation. Instead, the influence of diabatic processes on the circulation crucially depends on the balance between the fluxes along isentropic surfaces of the materially-conserved and diabatically-generated PV components across the lateral boundaries of the control volumes. Finally, the application of the integral interpretation of diabatic tracers for the assessment of model consistency across different model resolutions is discussed.

  20. Impact of an improved shortwave radiation scheme in the MAECHAM5 General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Morcrette

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the representation of ozone absorption in the stratosphere of the MAECHAM5 general circulation model, the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation parameterization used in the model has been increased from 4 to 6 bands. Two 20-years simulations with the general circulation model have been performed, one with the standard and the other with the newly introduced parameterization respectively, to evaluate the temperature and dynamical changes arising from the two different representations of the shortwave radiative transfer. In the simulation with the increased spectral resolution in the radiation parameterization, a significant warming of almost the entire model domain is reported. At the summer stratopause the temperature increase is about 6 K and alleviates the cold bias present in the model when the standard radiation scheme is used. These general circulation model results are consistent both with previous validation of the radiation scheme and with the offline clear-sky comparison performed in the current work with a discrete ordinate 4 stream scattering line by line radiative transfer model. The offline validation shows a substantial reduction of the daily averaged shortwave heating rate bias (1–2 K/day cooling that occurs for the standard radiation parameterization in the upper stratosphere, present under a range of atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the 6 band shortwave radiation parameterization is considered to be better suited for the representation of the ozone absorption in the stratosphere than the 4 band parameterization. Concerning the dynamical response in the general circulation model, it is found that the reported warming at the summer stratopause induces stronger zonal mean zonal winds in the middle atmosphere. These stronger zonal mean zonal winds thereafter appear to produce a dynamical feedback that results in a dynamical warming (cooling of the polar winter (summer mesosphere, caused by an

  1. Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Edmund Kar-Man [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)

    2017-10-30

    The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonal skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks

  2. Circulating microRNAs in breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamam, Rimi; Hamam, Dana; Alsaleh, Khalid A

    2017-01-01

    Effective management of breast cancer depends on early diagnosis and proper monitoring of patients' response to therapy. However, these goals are difficult to achieve because of the lack of sensitive and specific biomarkers for early detection and for disease monitoring. Accumulating evidence...... in the past several years has highlighted the potential use of peripheral blood circulating nucleic acids such as DNA, mRNA and micro (mi)RNA in breast cancer diagnosis, prognosis and for monitoring response to anticancer therapy. Among these, circulating miRNA is increasingly recognized as a promising...... circulating miRNAs as diagnostic, prognostic or predictive biomarkers in breast cancer management....

  3. Atmospheric Circulation Response to Episodic Arctic Warming in an Idealized Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hell, M. C.; Schneider, T.; Li, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recent Arctic sea ice loss has drawn attention as a potential driver of fall/winter circulation changes. Past work has shown that sea ice loss can be related to a stratospheric polar vortex breakdown, with the result of long-delayed surface weather phenomena in late winter/early spring. In this study, we separate the atmospheric dynamic components and mean timescales to episodic polar surface heat fluxes using large ensembles of an idealized GCM in absence of continents and seasons. The atmospheric ensemble-mean response is linear related to the surface forcing strength and insensitive to the forcing symmetry. Analyses in the Transformed Eulerian Mean show that the responses can be separated into 1) an in-phase thermal adjustment, and 2) a lagged, eddy-driven component invoking long-standing anomalies in the lower stratosphere. The mid-latitude adjustment to the episodically reduced baroclinity leads to stratosphere-directed eddy-heat fluxes, establishing a stratospheric temperature anomaly responsible for vortex break down. In addition, we discuss the dependence on the background state via correlation in ensemble member space. Thus, we range the role of arctic perturbations in the transient large-scale circulation.

  4. Hydrography and circulation west of Sardinia in June 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Knoll

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the frame of the REP14-MED sea trial in June 2014, the hydrography and circulation west of Sardinia, observed by means of gliders, shipborne CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth instruments, towed devices, and vessel-mounted ADCPs (acoustic doppler current profilers, are presented and compared with previous knowledge. So far, the circulation is not well-known in this area, and the hydrography is subject to long-term changes. Potential temperature, salinity, and potential density ranges as well as core values of the observed water masses were determined. Modified Atlantic Water (MAW, with potential density anomalies below 28.72 kg m−3, showed a salinity minimum of 37.93 at 50 dbar. Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW, with a salinity maximum of about 38.70 at 400 dbar, was observed within a range of 28.72<σΘ/(kg m−3 < 29.10. MAW and LIW showed slightly higher salinities than previous investigations. During the trial, LIW covered the whole area from the Sardinian shelf to 7°15′ E. Only north of 40° N was it tied to the continental slope. Within the MAW, a cold and saline anticyclonic eddy was observed in the southern trial area. The strongest variability in temperature and salinity appeared around this eddy, and in the southwestern part of the domain, where unusually low saline surface water entered the area towards the end of the experiment. An anticyclonic eddy of Winter Intermediate Water was recorded moving northward at 0.014 m s−1. Geostrophic currents and water mass transports calculated across zonal and meridional transects showed a good agreement with vessel-mounted ADCP measurements. Within the MAW, northward currents were observed over the shelf and offshore, while a southward transport of about 1.5 Sv occurred over the slope. A net northward transport of 0.38 Sv across the southern transect decreased to zero in the north. Within the LIW, northward transports of 0.6 Sv across the southern

  5. A case study on the cyclone activity around Europe from winter to spring of 2000 (From the view of comparison with that in East Asia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwana, Yusuke; Otani, Kazuo; Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin

    2017-04-01

    The extratropical cyclone is one of the basic systems that characterize the weather and climate in mid-latitude area, where the mean meridional temperature gradient is large. However, this activity is deeply influenced by the seasonal transition and regional differences of the mean atmospheric fields. Diversity of cyclone's characteristics such as baroclinic instability wave, polar lows and slow-moving cold vortexes is also seen within the mid-latitude area. For example, the seasonal transition of the large-scale fields is rather widely different in European region from that in East Asia where the influence Asian monsoon is very great. It is also noted that the cyclones developed in the other region might effect greatly the weather in Europe. On the other hand, detailed knowledge of the daily cyclone activity would help to understand deeply the differences of regional climatology among various areas including seasonal transition and geographical characteristics. After such interest, Takigawa and Kato(EGU 2015) made a preliminary study on the cyclone activity in Europe . We used the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data for 2000 and pointed out that not only the daily systems but also the intraseasonal-scale systems were also dominant in winter and summer. Thus the present study will examining the case for 2000 with special attention to the features from winter to spring. In winter, submonthly-scale intraseasonal variation of the Icelandic Low was change. In the stage when Icelandic Low with such intraseasonal-scale approached northwestern Europe, several lows passed eastward around with a few days interval the southern edge of Icelandic low with relatively strong baraclinicity. It is remarked that their center pressure was rather low (below 980hPa). After April, when the seasonal mean Icelandic low had disappeared, different types of the intra-seasonal-scale cyclones and anticyclones were dominantly observed. In the lower SLP stage of the intraseasonal variation in Europe

  6. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiao; Wang, Bin

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies have found that snow Eurasian anomalies in autumn can affect East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), but the mechanisms remain controversial and not well understood. The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect EAWM are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. The leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the October-November mean Eurasian snow cover is characterized by a uniform anomaly over a broad region of central Eurasia (40°N-65°N, 60°E-140°E). However, the results from a 150-ensemble mean simulation with snow depth anomaly specified in October and November reveal that the Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM. The excessive snow forcing can significantly enhance EAWM and the snowfall over the northwestern China and along the EAWM front zone stretching from the southeast China to Japan. The physical process involves a snow-monsoon feedback mechanism. The excessive autumn snow anomalies over the MPV region can persist into the following winter, and significantly enhance winter snow anomalies, which increase surface albedo, reduce incoming solar radiation and cool the boundary layer air, leading to an enhanced Mongolian High and a deepened East Asian trough. The latter, in turn, strengthen surface northwesterly winds, cooling East Asia and increasing snow accumulation over the MPV region and the southeastern China. The increased snow covers feedback to EAWM system through changing albedo, extending its influence southeastward. It is also found that the atmosphere-ocean coupling process can amplify the delayed influence of Eurasian snow mass anomaly on EAWM. The autumn surface albedo anomalies, however, do not have a lasting "memory" effect. Only if the albedo anomalies are artificially extended into December and January, will the EAWM be

  7. Isotope composition of winter precipitation and snow cover in the foothills of the Altai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Malygina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, several general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean (atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models  – GCMs have been improved by modeling the hydrological cycle with the use of isotopologues (isotopes of water HDO and H2 18O. Input parameters for the GCM models taking into account changes in the isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation were, above all, the results obtained by the network GNIP – Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. At different times, on the vast territory of Russia there were only about 40 simultaneously functioning stations where the sampling of atmospheric precipitation was performed. In this study we present the results of the isotope composition of samples taken on the foothills of the Altai during two winter seasons of 2014/15 and 2015/16. Values of the isotope composition of precipitation changed in a wide range and their maximum fluctuations were 25, 202 and 18‰ for δ18О, dexc and δD, respectively. The weighted-mean values of δ18О and δD of the precipitation analyzed for the above two seasons were close to each other (−21.1 and −158.1‰ for the first season and −21.1 and −161.9‰ for the second one, while dexc values differed significantly. The comparison of the results of isotope analysis of the snow cover integral samples with the corresponding in the time interval the weighted-mean values of precipitation showed high consistency. However, despite the similarity of values of δ18О and δD, calculated for precipitation and snow cover, and the results, interpolated in IsoMAP (from data of the GNIP stations for 1960–2010, the dexc values were close to mean annual values of IsoMAP for only the second winter season. According to the trajectory analysis (the HYSPLIT model, the revealed differences between both, the seasons, and the long-term average values of IsoMAP, were associated with a change of main regions where the air masses

  8. 32th Winter Workshop on Nuclear Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    The 32nd edition of the Winter Workshop will be held 28 February - 5 March 2016, Hotel Resort Fort Royal Guadeloupe in Guadeloupe a French overseas territory, is an island group in the southern Caribbean Sea. As with previous years, the workshop will bring together scientists from all fields of nuclear physics for engaging and friendly exchanges of ideas. Much emphasis will be on the recent LHC, RHIC and SPS heavy ion results, but advances in the ongoing and future programs at FAIR, FRIB, EIC, JLab and NICA and will also be featured. The meeting will start with a welcome reception on the evening of Sunday, February 28. The workshop program will commence on Monday morning and run until Saturday. We recommend to arrive on Sunday and leave on Sunday. Talks will be as usual 25+5 minutes, there will be no parallel sessions. If you are interested in presenting your work, please fill out the registration form prior to the registration deadline. After the program committee has met we will confirm your talk via indivi...

  9. Geophysical forecast: industry expects busy winter season

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ludwick, J.

    1997-11-01

    Survey results by the Canadian Association of Geophysical Contractors were discussed. According to the survey, all of the sector`s 65 crews will be fully utilized this winter, although no activity records are expected. Charges are likely to be slightly higher than last year. At least some of the increase will go towards increased pay to attract more workers into the field in an effort to counter the labour shortage in the seismic industry. Contractors must compete with other sectors such as construction, which is booming as a result of Alberta`s burgeoning economy. The Slave Lake and Rocky Mountain House regions are expected to be the hottest in Alberta. Southeastern Saskatchewan also promises to be the site of increased activity due to the growing interest in the Red River oil play. Another reason for the increased activity may be the use of innovative technology such as that employed by Enertec Geophysical Service Limited. It will pilot-test its newly acquired PowerProbe technology, which is said to be able to immediately detect the presence of hydrocarbons.

  10. Report 3 energy market barometer - Winter 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleich, Joachim; Cateura, Olivier; Faure, Corinne; Jacob, Jojo; Javaudin, Laurent; Molecke, Greg; Olsthoorn, Mark; Pinkse, Jonatan; Shomali, Azadeh; Vernay, Anne-Lorene

    2015-01-01

    This Winter 2014 edition of the Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) Energy Market Barometer documents the French energy experts' estimates of the future electricity mix in France and in the European Union, their assessment of the regulatory conditions in France for investments in energy technologies, and their expectations about the development of energy and CO 2 -certificate prices. Key findings: - Fewer than one in four experts believes that the target to decrease nuclear power's share of the French power mix to 50% by 2025 will be met; - The share of renewable energy sources (other than hydropower) in the French power mix is expected to almost quadruple by 2030; - Renewable energy sources (other than hydropower) are believed to become the dominating source of electricity in the EU in 2030; - About two thirds of the experts think that current regulatory conditions in France are particularly accommodating for investments in energy efficiency and renewable energies; - Experts are divided over how supportive current and future regulatory conditions are for encouraging investments in nuclear power in France; - Electricity prices are expected to remain stable over the next six months but to increase over the next 5 years; - Oil prices are expected to continue to decrease over the next six month, but increase over the next 5 years; - CO 2 certificate prices are expected to rise only in the medium to longer term but levels remain rather low

  11. Seawater circulating system in an aquaculture laboratory

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chatterji, A.; Ingole, B.S.; Parulekar, A.H.

    The note gives an account, for the first time in India, of an Aquaculture Laboratory with open type seawater circulating system developed at the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India. Besides describing the details of the system...

  12. EOP MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution for the...

  13. Schools Underrate Circulation's Role, Managers Claim

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, John

    1976-01-01

    "Education for journalism should include instruction concerning the function of a newspaper's circulation department, but colleges and universities are doing a poor job of such instruction." (Author/KS)

  14. Blocking device especially for circulating pumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susil, J.; Vychodil, V.; Lorenc, P.

    1976-01-01

    The claim of the invention is a blocking device which blocks reverse flow occurring after the shutdown of circulating pumps, namely in the operation of nuclear power plants or in pumps with a high delivery head. (F.M.)

  15. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  16. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnston, Anthony G.; Livezey, Robert E.

    1987-01-01

    The seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability in the low-frequency atmospheric circulation were studied using orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights. The twice-daily data for the 1950-1984 period were used. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies. The strongest summer pattern is the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is also the strongest winter pattern; it systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. The robustness of the RPCA results was examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, as well as by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700-mb height. It is concluded that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful and statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with superior pattern choice and depiction.

  17. Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stager, J. C.; Mayewski, P. A.; White, J.; Chase, B. M.; Neumann, F. H.; Meadows, M. E.; King, C. D.; Dixon, D. A.

    2012-05-01

    The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400-1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

  18. Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Stager

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400–1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

  19. The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

    2017-09-01

    Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

  20. [Circulating proteinic biomarkers and breast cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathelin, C; Koehl, C; Rio, M-C

    2006-01-01

    Circulating proteinic biomarkers are secreted by tumor cells or by their environmental cells and they have a variable specificity. In case of breast cancer, carcino-embryonic antigen (CEA) was for a long time the only circulating biomarker used. Nowadays, the most useful biomarkers measure circulating levels of fragments of MUC1-polymorphic epithelial mucin (MUC1-PEM): cancer antigen (CA) 15.3, mucin-like carcinoma-associated antigen (MCA), CA 27-29, CA 549... They are useful for general disease follow-up. Other circulating markers belonging to keratins (tissue polypeptide antigen, TPA, TPS or Cyfra 21.1) are correlated with proliferative activity of breast tumors. More recently, the measure of the c-erb B2 circulating part (extra cellular domain, ECD) was proposed as a prognostic biomarker for breast tumors with c-erb B2 overexpression. Moreover, the determination of urinary level of trefoil factor1 (PS2-TFF1) might be useful for the follow-up of hormonodependent breast cancers. The present review describes the clinical interest of these different circulating biomarkers in case of breast cancer, emphasizing their biological characteristics.

  1. Novel psychrotolerant picocyanobacteria isolated from Chesapeake Bay in the winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yongle; Jiao, Nianzhi; Chen, Feng

    2015-08-01

    Picocyanobacteria are major primary producers in the ocean, especially in the tropical or subtropical oceans or during warm seasons. Many "warm" picocyanobacterial species have been isolated and characterized. However, picocyanobacteria in cold environments or cold seasons are much less studied. In general, little is known about the taxonomy and ecophysiology of picocyanobacteria living in the winter. In this study, 17 strains of picocyanobacteria were isolated from Chesapeake Bay, a temperate estuarine ecosystem, during the winter months. These winter isolates belong to five distinct phylogenetic lineages, and are distinct from the picocyanobacteria previously isolated from the warm seasons. The vast majority of the winter isolates were closely related to picocyanobacteria isolated from other cold environments like Arctic or subalpine waters. The winter picocyanobacterial isolates were able to maintain slow growth or prolonged dormancy at 4°C. Interestingly, the phycoerythrin-rich strains outperformed the phycocyanin-rich strains at cold temperature. In addition, winter picocyanobacteria changed their morphology when cultivated at 4°C. The close phylogenetic relationship between the winter picocyanobacteria and the picocyanobacteria living in high latitude cold regions indicates that low temperature locations select specific ecotypes of picocyanobacteria. © 2015 Phycological Society of America.

  2. Relationship of deer and moose populations to previous winters' snow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.; McRoberts, R.E.; Peterson, R.O.; Page, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    (1) Linear regression was used to relate snow accumulation during single and consecutive winters with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawn:doe ratios, mosse (Alces alces) twinning rates and calf:cow ratios, and annual changes in deer and moose populations. Significant relationships were found between snow accumulation during individual winters and these dependent variables during the following year. However, the strongest relationships were between the dependent variables and the sums of the snow accumulations over the previous three winters. The percentage of the variability explained was 36 to 51. (2) Significant relationships were also found between winter vulnerability of moose calves and the sum of the snow accumulations in the current, and up to seven previous, winters, with about 49% of the variability explained. (3) No relationship was found between wolf numbers and the above dependent variables. (4) These relationships imply that winter influences on maternal nutrition can accumulate for several years and that this cumulative effect strongly determines fecundity and/or calf and fawn survivability. Although wolf (Canis lupus L.) predation is the main direct mortality agent on fawns and calves, wolf density itself appears to be secondary to winter weather in influencing the deer and moose populations.

  3. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R

    2016-11-01

    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  4. Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Jennifer L.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

    2010-01-01

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are dependent on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) for food and shelter during winter, yet few studies have assessed winter habitat selection, particularly at scales applicable to conservation planning. Small changes to availability of winter habitats have caused drastic reductions in some sage-grouse populations. We modeled winter habitat selection by sage-grouse in Alberta, Canada, by using a resource selection function. Our purpose was to 1) generate a robust winter habitat-selection model for Alberta sage-grouse; 2) spatially depict habitat suitability in a Geographic Information System to identify areas with a high probability of selection and thus, conservation importance; and 3) assess the relative influence of human development, including oil and gas wells, in landscape models of winter habitat selection. Terrain and vegetation characteristics, sagebrush cover, anthropogenic landscape features, and energy development were important in top Akaike's Information Criterionselected models. During winter, sage-grouse selected dense sagebrush cover and homogenous less rugged areas, and avoided energy development and 2-track truck trails. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development highlights the need for comprehensive management strategies that maintain suitable habitats across all seasons. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

  5. Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

    2015-06-01

    Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

  6. Unexpected winter phytoplankton blooms in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacour, L.; Ardyna, M.; Stec, K. F.; Claustre, H.; Prieur, L.; Poteau, A.; D'Alcala, M. Ribera; Iudicone, D.

    2017-11-01

    In mid- and high-latitude oceans, winter surface cooling and strong winds drive turbulent mixing that carries phytoplankton to depths of several hundred metres, well below the sunlit layer. This downward mixing, in combination with low solar radiation, drastically limits phytoplankton growth during the winter, especially that of the diatoms and other species that are involved in seeding the spring bloom. Here we present observational evidence for widespread winter phytoplankton blooms in a large part of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre from autonomous profiling floats equipped with biogeochemical sensors. These blooms were triggered by intermittent restratification of the mixed layer when mixed-layer eddies led to a horizontal transport of lighter water over denser layers. Combining a bio-optical index with complementary chemotaxonomic and modelling approaches, we show that these restratification events increase phytoplankton residence time in the sunlight zone, resulting in greater light interception and the emergence of winter blooms. Restratification also caused a phytoplankton community shift from pico- and nanophytoplankton to phototrophic diatoms. We conclude that transient winter blooms can maintain active diatom populations throughout the winter months, directly seeding the spring bloom and potentially making a significant contribution to over-winter carbon export.

  7. Wintering Golden Eagles on the coastal plain of South Carolina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vukovich, Mark [USDA Forest Service-Savannah River, New Ellenton, SC (United States); Turner, Kelsey L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL); Univ. of Georgia, Aiken, SC (United States); Grazia, Tracy E. [USDA Forest Service, New Ellenton, SC (United States). Savannah River; Mims, Thiomas [USDA Forest Service, New Ellenton, SC (United States). Savannah River; Beasley, James C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL); Univ. of Georgia, Aiken, SC (United States); Kilgo, John C. [USDA Forest Service-Savannah River, New Ellenton, SC (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) are rare winter residents in eastern North America, with most found along the Appalachian Mountains and few reported on the coastal plain of the Carolinas. We used remote cameras baited with wild pig (Sus scrofa) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) carcasses to detect, age, and individually identify Golden Eagles on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site on the coastal plain of South Carolina. We identified eight individual Golden Eagles during the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, with one detected during both winters. We detected eagles for 19 and 66 calendar days during the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, respectively, with two adult eagles detected for 30 and 31 calendar days in 2014–2015. Eagles typically scavenged on carcasses for a few days, left, and then returned when cameras were baited with another carcass, suggesting they had remained in the area. These observations suggest that large tracts of forests on the coastal plain may be important wintering areas for some Golden Eagles and, further, that other areas in the coastal plain of the southeastern United States may also harbor wintering eagles. Identification of wintering areas of Golden Eagles in the east will be an important step in the conservation of this protected species, and camera traps baited with carcasses can be an effective tool for such work.

  8. Regional greenhouse gas emissions from cultivation of winter wheat and winter rapeseed for biofuels in Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsgaard, Lars; Olesen, Joergen E.; Hermansen, John E.; Kristensen, Inge T.; Boergesen, Christen D. [Dept. of Agroecology, Aarhus Univ., Tjele (Denmark)], E-mail: lars.elsgaard@agrsci.dk

    2013-04-15

    Biofuels from bioenergy crops may substitute a significant part of fossil fuels in the transport sector where, e.g., the European Union has set a target of using 10% renewable energy by 2020. Savings of greenhouse gas emissions by biofuels vary according to cropping systems and are influenced by such regional factors as soil conditions, climate and input of agrochemicals. Here we analysed at a regional scale the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with cultivation of winter wheat for bioethanol and winter rapeseed for rapeseed methyl ester (RME) under Danish conditions. Emitted CO{sub 2} equivalents (CO{sub 2}eq) were quantified from the footprints of CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O associated with cultivation and the emissions were allocated between biofuel energy and co-products. Greenhouse gas emission at the national level (Denmark) was estimated to 22.1 g CO{sub 2}eq MJ{sup 1} ethanol for winter wheat and 26.0 g CO{sub 2}eq MJ{sup 1} RME for winter rapeseed. Results at the regional level (level 2 according to the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics [NUTS]) ranged from 20.0 to 23.9 g CO{sub 2}eq MJ{sup 1} ethanol and from 23.5 to 27.6 g CO{sub 2}eq MJ{sup 1} RME. Thus, at the regional level emission results varied by up to 20%. Differences in area-based emissions were only 4% reflecting the importance of regional variation in yields for the emission result. Fertilizer nitrogen production and direct emissions of soil N{sub 2}O were major contributors to the final emission result and sensitivity analyses showed that the emission result depended to a large extent on the uncertainty ranges assumed for soil N{sub 2}O emissions. Improvement of greenhouse gas balances could be pursued, e.g., by growing dedicated varieties for energy purposes. However, in a wider perspective, land-use change of native ecosystems to bioenergy cropping systems could compromise the CO{sub 2} savings of bioenergy production and challenge the targets set for biofuel

  9. Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof

    2017-07-01

    Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  10. Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

  11. Seasonal and interannual variability of the eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchipalanga, Pedro; Macuéria, Marissa; Dengler, Marcus; Ostrowski, Marek; Kopte, Robert; Brandt, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Coastal countries of southwest Africa strongly depend upon their ocean: societal development, fisheries, and tourism face important changes associated with climate variability and global change. As an example, Angolan fisheries are currently reporting reduced catches that may be associated to variability of the eastern boundary circulation and water masses along the Angolan continental margin. In an effort to enhance understanding of the seasonal and interannual variability of the boundary circulation and thermocline water masses and their relation to warm and cold events in South East Atlantic, existing in-situ observations from a multi-cruise program were analyzed. Repeated hydrography and ship-board ADCP measurements from the EAF - Nansen Project collected during the Austral summer and winter period between 1995 and 2014 are used. From the ship-board velocity measurements, the average eastern boundary circulation at 6°S, 9°S, 12°S, 15°S and 17°S is presented for the summer and winter period. CTD data collected during the 24 cruises along the Angolan continental margin exhibit elevated interannual variability of heat and salt content in the upper thermocline between 50 and 150m depth. Warm and cold anomalies in the upper thermocline are strongly correlated to the Angola-Benguela area index and precede the respective sea surface temperature signal. The known warm events in 2001 and 2011 are well represented in the subsurface data. This suggests that thermocline heat anomalies serve as a preconditioning for the occurrences of Benguela Niños/Niñas. The processes responsible for the interannual variability of thermocline heat and salt contend are discussed.

  12. Quantifying Subsidence in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter Vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Jost, Hans-juerg; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James R.; Bui, T. Paul; Elkins, James W.; Moore, Fred L.; Ray, Eric A.; Sen, Bhaswar; Margitan, James J.; hide

    2000-01-01

    Quantifying the subsidence of the polar winter stratospheric vortex is essential to the analysis of ozone depletion, as chemical destruction often occurs against a large, altitude-dependent background ozone concentration. Using N2O measurements made during SOLVE on a variety of platforms (ER-2, in-situ balloon and remote balloon), the 1999-2000 Arctic winter subsidence is determined from N2O-potential temperature correlations along several N2O isopleths. The subsidence rates are compared to those determined in other winters, and comparison is also made with results from the SLIMCAT stratospheric chemical transport model.

  13. Notes on winter feeding behavior and molt in Wilson's phalaropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, J.; Howe, M.

    1975-01-01

    Wilson's Phalaropes, Steganopus tricolor, migrate in late summer from the prairie regions of North America to their wintering grounds in the highlands of Peru and the inland and coastal waters of Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina (Holmes 1939, Meyer de Schauensee 1970). Reports on these birds from their wintering habitat are few. This paper describes numbers, feeding behavior, and molt of Wilson's Phalaropes wintering in a freshwater marsh in central Argentina. Fieldwork in Argentina was conducted by the senior author. The junior author analyzed molt patterns of birds collected there and added data he collected in North Dakota in 1968 and 1969.

  14. Regional-scale winter-spring temperature variability and chilling damage dynamics over the past two centuries in southeastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, Jianping; Zhang, Qi-Bin; Lv, Lixin; Zhang, Chao [Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Beijing (China)

    2012-08-15

    Winter-spring cold extreme is a kind of serious natural disaster for southeastern China. As such events are recorded in discrete documents, long and continuous records are required to understand their characteristics and driving forces. Here we report a regional-scale winter-spring (January-April) temperature reconstruction based on a tree-ring network of pine trees (Pinus massoniana) from five sampling sites over a large spatial scale (25-29 N, 111-115 E) in southeastern China. The regional tree-ring chronology explains 48.6% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1957-2008. The reconstruction shows six relatively warm intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1849-1855, {proportional_to}1871-1888, {proportional_to}1909-1920, {proportional_to}1939-1944, {proportional_to}1958-1968, 1997-2007) and five cold intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1860-1870, {proportional_to}1893-1908, {proportional_to}1925-1934, {proportional_to}1945-1957, {proportional_to}1982-1996) during 1849-2008. The last decade and the 1930s were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively, in the past 160 years. The composite analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height fields reveals that distinctly different circulation patterns occurred in the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The winter-spring cold extremes in southeastern China are associated with Ural-High ridge pattern for the instrumental period (1957-2008), whereas the cold extremes in pre-instrumental period (1871-1956) are associated with North circulation pattern. (orig.)

  15. Urban emissions of water vapor in winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmon, Olivia E.; Shepson, Paul B.; Ren, Xinrong; Marquardt Collow, Allison B.; Miller, Mark A.; Carlton, Annmarie G.; Cambaliza, Maria O. L.; Heimburger, Alexie; Morgan, Kristan L.; Fuentes, Jose D.; Stirm, Brian H.; Grundman, Robert; Dickerson, Russell R.

    2017-09-01

    Elevated water vapor (H2Ov) mole fractions were occasionally observed downwind of Indianapolis, IN, and the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore, MD, area during airborne mass balance experiments conducted during winter months between 2012 and 2015. On days when an urban H2Ov excess signal was observed, H2Ov emission estimates range between 1.6 × 104 and 1.7 × 105 kg s-1 and account for up to 8.4% of the total (background + urban excess) advected flow of atmospheric boundary layer H2Ov from the urban study sites. Estimates of H2Ov emissions from combustion sources and electricity generation facility cooling towers are 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than the urban H2Ov emission rates estimated from observations. Instances of urban H2Ov enhancement could be a result of differences in snowmelt and evaporation rates within the urban area, due in part to larger wintertime anthropogenic heat flux and land cover differences, relative to surrounding rural areas. More study is needed to understand why the urban H2Ov excess signal is observed on some days, and not others. Radiative transfer modeling indicates that the observed urban enhancements in H2Ov and other greenhouse gas mole fractions contribute only 0.1°C d-1 to the urban heat island at the surface. This integrated warming through the boundary layer is offset by longwave cooling by H2Ov at the top of the boundary layer. While the radiative impacts of urban H2Ov emissions do not meaningfully influence urban heat island intensity, urban H2Ov emissions may have the potential to alter downwind aerosol and cloud properties.

  16. Energy market barometer report - Winter 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleich, Joachim; Cartel, Melodie; Javaudin, Laurent; Molecke, Greg; Olsthoorn, Mark; Vernay, Anne-Lorene

    2016-01-01

    This Winter 2015 edition of the Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) Energy Market Barometer gauged the expectations of French energy experts regarding the low oil price and its consequences on alternative energy technologies. The experts were also asked about the investment climate for energy technologies in France. Key findings: - The energy experts consider the current low oil price a temporary phenomenon. The price of a barrel of crude oil (Brent) to reach US$ 55 at the end of the year (2016). About three quarters of respondents expect the price of oil to increase in 5 years and to exceed US$ 100 per barrel within 10 years. - The current weak price of crude oil is thought to have an adverse impact on the amount of investment in renewables for heat generation, in biofuels, and in energy efficiency technologies. - The experts view the current regulatory environment in France for investments in renewables, e-mobility, smart grids and energy efficiency favorably. They expect it to continue to improve over the next 5 years. However, nuclear energy and natural gas will not see their investment climate improved. - The recent developments on the global and national political stage have not moved most energy and CO 2 price expectations. The experts chart a progressive yet under-whelming raise in the price of CO 2 certificates in the medium to long term, from currently 8.5 euro/ton to euro 10-15 euro/ton in 5 years and 20-25 euro/ton in 10 years. - Prices of electricity, oil and natural gas are expected to rise in the medium term but remain stable over the next six months temporary phenomenon. Coal is the only energy carrier for which experts expect a decrease in price over the next five years

  17. Exceptional Arctic warmth of early winter 2016 and attribution to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Macias-Fauria, Marc; King, Andrew; Uhe, Peter; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; Karoly, David; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-04-01

    have risen on the North Pole, modulated by decadal North Atlantic variability. For all phases of this variability, a warm event like the one of this winter would have been extremely unlikely in the climate of a century ago. Both sets of models also give very comparable results and show that the bulk of the arctic temperature increase is due to anthropogenic emissions. This also holds for the warm extremes caused by the type of circulation present in the early winter of 2016.

  18. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of madagascar highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Chevalier, Véronique; Tantely, Luciano Michaël; Fontenille, Didier; Durand, Benoît

    2014-12-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008-2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV) vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV) reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i) RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii) a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii) combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields, seasonality of

  19. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of madagascar highlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaëlle Nicolas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Rift Valley fever (RVF is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008-2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields

  20. Real-time weed detection, decision making and patch spraying in maize, sugarbeet, winter wheat and winter barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerhards, R; Christensen, Svend

    2003-01-01

    with weed infestation levels higher than the economic weed threshold; a review of such work is provided. This paper presents a system for site-specific weed control in sugarbeet (Beta vulgaris L.), maize (Zea mays L.), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), including...... online weed detection using digital image analysis, computer-based decision making and global positioning systems (GPS)-controlled patch spraying. In a 4-year study, herbicide use with this map-based approach was reduced in winter cereals by 60% for herbicides against broad-leaved weeds and 90% for grass...