WorldWideScience

Sample records for winter convective precipitation

  1. VT Mean Winter Precipitation - 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) ClimatePrecip_PRECIPW7100 includes mean winter precipitation data (October through March) for Vermont (1971-2000). It's a raster dataset derived...

  2. Characteristic features of winter precipitation and its variability over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Northwest India; winter precipitation; western disturbances; rabi crops; precipitation variability; precipitation epochs. ... The precipitation is mainly associated with the sequence of synoptic systems known as 'western disturbances'. The precipitation has ... National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, India.

  3. Convective and stratiform components of a Winter Monsoon Cloud Cluster determined from geosynchronous infrared satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenberg, Stanley B.; Houze, Robert A., Jr.; Churchill, Dean D.

    1990-01-01

    The horizontal precipitation structure of cloud clusters observed over the South China Sea during the Winter Monsoon Experiment (WMONEX) is analyzed using a convective-stratiform technique (CST) developed by Adler and Negri (1988). The technique was modified by altering the method for identifying convective cells in the satellite data, accounting for the extremely cold cloud tops characteristic of the WMONEX region, and modifying the threshold infrared temperature for the boundary of the stratiform rain area. The precipitation analysis was extended to the entire history of the cloud cluster by applying the modified CST to IR imagery from geosynchronous-satellite observations. The ship and aircraft data from the later period of the cluster's lifetime make it possible to check the locations of convective and stratiform precipitation identified by the CST using in situ observations. The extended CST is considered to be effective for determining the climatology of the convective-stratiform structure of tropical cloud clusters.

  4. Stratiform Precipitation in Regions of Convection: A Meteorological Paradox?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houze, Robert A., Jr.

    1997-10-01

    It was once generally thought that stratiform precipitation was something occurring primarily, if not exclusively, in middle latitudes-in baroclinic cyclones and fronts. Early radar observations in the Tropics, however, showed large radar echoes composed of convective rain alongside stratiform precipitation, with the stratiform echoes covering great areas and accounting for a large portion of the tropical rainfall. These observations seemed paradoxical, since stratiform precipitation should not have been occurring in the Tropics, where baroclinic cyclones do not occur. Instead it was falling from convection-generated clouds, generally thought to be too violent to be compatible with the layered, gently settling behavior of stratiform precipitation.In meteorology, convection is a dynamic concept; specifically, it is the rapid, efficient, vigorous overturning of the atmosphere required to neutralize an unstable vertical distribution of moist static energy. Most clouds in the Tropics are convection-generated cumulonimbus. These cumulonimbus clouds contain an evolving pattern of newer and older precipitation. The young portions of the cumulonimbus are too violent to produce stratiform precipitation. In young, vigorous convective regions of the cumulonimbus, precipitation particles increase their mass by collection of cloud water, and the particles fall out in heavy showers, which appear on radar as vertically oriented convective "cells." In regions of older convection, however, the vertical air motions are generally weaker, and the precipitation particles drift downward, with the particles increasing their mass by vapor diffusion. In these regions the radar echoes are stratiform, and typically these echoes occur adjacent to regions of younger convective showers. Thus, the stratiform and convective precipitation both occur within the same complex of convection-generated cumulonimbus cloud.The feedbacks of the apparent heat source and moisture sink of tropical

  5. Improved nowcasting of precipitation based on convective analysis fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Haiden

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The high-resolution analysis and nowcasting system INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis developed at the Austrian national weather service provides three-dimensional fields of temperature, humidity, and wind on an hourly basis, and two-dimensional fields of precipitation rate in 15 min intervals. The system operates on a horizontal resolution of 1 km and a vertical resolution of 100–200 m. It combines surface station data, remote sensing data (radar, satellite, forecast fields of the numerical weather prediction model ALADIN, and high-resolution topographic data. An important application of the INCA system is nowcasting of convective precipitation. Based on fine-scale temperature, humidity, and wind analyses a number of convective analysis fields are routinely generated. These fields include convective boundary layer (CBL flow convergence and specific humidity, lifted condensation level (LCL, convective available potential energy (CAPE, convective inhibition (CIN, and various convective stability indices. Based on the verification of areal precipitation nowcasts it is shown that the pure translational forecast of convective cells can be improved by using a decision algorithm which is based on a subset of the above fields, combined with satellite products.

  6. VHF signal power suppression in stratiform and convective precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. McDonald

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have indicated that VHF clear-air radar return strengths are reduced during periods of precipitation. This study aims to examine whether the type of precipitation, stratiform and convective precipitation types are identified, has any impact on the relationships previously observed and to examine the possible mechanisms which produce this phenomenon. This study uses a combination of UHF and VHF wind-profiler data to define periods associated with stratiform and convective precipitation. This identification is achieved using an algorithm which examines the range squared corrected signal to noise ratio of the UHF returns for a bright band signature for stratiform precipitation. Regions associated with convective rainfall have been defined by identifying regions of enhanced range corrected signal to noise ratio that do not display a bright band structure and that are relatively uniform until a region above the melting layer.

    This study uses a total of 68 days, which incorporated significant periods of surface rainfall, between 31 August 2000 and 28 February 2002 inclusive from Aberystwyth (52.4° N, 4.1° W. Examination suggests that both precipitation types produce similar magnitude reductions in VHF signal power on average. However, the frequency of occurrence of statistically significant reductions in VHF signal power are very different. In the altitude range 2-4 km stratiform precipitation is related to VHF signal suppression approximately 50% of the time while in convective precipitation suppression is observed only 27% of the time. This statistical result suggests that evaporation, which occurs more often in stratiform precipitation, is important in reducing the small-scale irregularities in humidity and thereby the radio refractive index. A detailed case study presented also suggests that evaporation reducing small-scale irregularities in humidity may contribute to the observed VHF signal

  7. Characterizing the summer convective clouds and precipitation over Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, X.; Chang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in regional even in global water cycle, ecosystem and atmospheric circulation. China has conducted the Third Tibetan Plateau Experiment-Observation of Boundary Layer and Troposphere (2014-2017) Project in order to reveal the physical process of meteorology and atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. The field campaign used state-of-the-art observational instruments for observing clouds and precipitation processes including multiband radar system such as the C-band continuous wave radar and Ka-band millimetre wave cloud radar, as well as raindrop disdrometer and lidar ceilometer etc. Here, we characterize the summer convective clouds and precipitation and raindrop size distribution based on observation data and FY-2E satellite TBB data from July 1 to August 31, 2014. The result shows that the summer convective activities mainly distributed in the central and southeast regions over the Tibetan Plateau, and the precipitation process had a quasi-two-week cycle during the observational period. Due to the strong solar heating effect over the plateau, both convective clouds and precipitation processes had obvious daily variation. The convections first appeared at 11:00 in the morning, and the first peak of precipitation occurred at around 12:00, which was mainly caused by local thermal convection with relative lower cloud-top height and wider drop spectrum. The mean cloud-top height was around 11.5 km (ASL), and its maximum value exceeded 19 km, and the mean cloud-base height was 6.88 km (ASL) during the observation period. The precipitation in summer time over the plateau was mainly short-lasting and showery, and usually lasted less than 1 h, and the mean precipitation intensity was around 1.2 mm/h. The result also shows that the raindrop size distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was wider than that over plain at the same latitude and season, because of which the rainfall could be more easily produced over the plateau than that over

  8. Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, L.; Zhu, X.; Fraedrich, K.; Sielmann, F.; Zhi, X.

    2014-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the followin...

  9. Effects of El Nino Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Do-Woo [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Ki-Seon [Korea Meteorological Administration, National Typhoon Center, Jeju (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hi-Ryong [Pukyong National University, Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Nam-gu, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-04-15

    This study compares the impacts of El Nino Modoki and El Nino on precipitation over Korea during the boreal winters from 1954 to 2009. Precipitation in Korea tends to be equal to or greater than the normal level during an El Nino Modoki winter, whereas there is no significant change during an El Nino winter. Greater than normal precipitation during El Nino Modoki was also found over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China and much of southern Japan. The latitudes of these regions are 5-10 further north than in southern China, where precipitation increases during El Nino. The following two anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be causes that led to different precipitation distributions over East Asia. First, an atmospheric wave train in the lower troposphere, which propagated from the central tropical Pacific (cyclonic) through the southern Philippine Sea (anticyclonic) to East Asia (cyclonic), reached the southern China and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino, whereas it reached Korea and southern Japan during El Nino Modoki. Second, an anomalous local meridional circulation, which consists of air sinking in the tropics, flowing poleward in the lower troposphere, and rising in the subtropics, developed between the southern Philippine Sea and northern Philippine Sea during El Nino. During El Nino Modoki, however, this circulation expanded further to the north and was formed between the southern Philippine Sea and regions of Korea and southern Japan. (orig.)

  10. Is convective precipitation increasing? The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Marcos, R.; Turco, M.

    2012-04-01

    A recent work (Turco and Llasat, 2011) has been performed to analyse the trends of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003, calculated from a interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution. This work has showed that no general trends at a regional scale have been observed, considering the annual and the seasonal regional values, and only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern. Simultaneously, Llasat et al (2009, 2010) have showed an important increase of flash-flood events in the same region. Although aspects related with vulnerability, exposure and changes in uses of soil have been found as the main responsible of this increase, a major knowledge on the evolution of high rainfall events is mandatory. Heavy precipitation is usually associated to convective precipitation and therefore the analysis of the latter is a good indicator of it. Particularly, in Catalonia, funding was raised to define a parameter, designated as β, related with the greater or lesser convective character of the precipitation (Llasat, 2001). This parameter estimates the contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation using 1-min or 5-min rainfall intensities usually estimated by rain gauges and it can be also analysed by means of the meteorological radar (Llasat et al, 2007). Its monthly distribution shows a maximum in August, followed by September, which are the months with the major number of flash-floods in Catalonia. This parameter also allows distinguishing between different kinds of precipitation events taking into account the degree of convective contribution. The main problem is the lack of long rainfall rate series that allow analysing trends in convective precipitation. The second one is related with its heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution. To

  11. Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikai Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation has been considered to be a critical water source for both human livelihoods and ecosystems in Central Asia. Using observational data and gridded datasets, we studied the regional and seasonal differences of precipitation climate characteristics and variations in precipitation over Central Asia. Using observational data obtained from the China Meteorological Administration, Global Historical Climatology Network (V3.02, we divided Central Asia into four subregions (North, Center, Southwest, and Southeast based on the differences in seasonal cycles of precipitation. ‘Single peaks’ were detected as types of seasonal cycles over the North and the Southeast, while ‘two peaks’ was the type that occurred in the Southwest. For the Center, the zone of transition between the North and the Southwest, each monthly precipitation value was higher than the Southwest’s and less than the North’s. GPCC (R2 of 0.89, RMSE of 64.5 mm/year was proven to be the most suitable dataset of the four datasets (CRU, GPCC, MERRA, and TRMM to describe precipitation in Central Asia, based on validation against observational data, and used to detect the spatial and temporal trend of precipitation in Central Asia and four subregions during 1960–2013. No significant trends were observed for annual precipitation in Central Asia, while precipitation in winter displayed a significant increase (0.11 mm/year. Additionally, significantly increasing trends (0.16, 0.27, 0.13, and 0.13 mm/year were detected in spring, summer, autumn, and winter over the Southeast during 1960–2013.

  12. The relationships between precipitation, convective cloud and tropical cyclone intensity change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Z.; Wu, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Using 16 years precipitation, brightness temperature (IR BT) data and tropical cyclone (TC) information, this study explores the relationship between precipitation, convective cloud and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the Western North Pacific Ocean. It is found that TC intensity has positive relation with TC precipitation. TC precipitation increases with increased TC intensity. Based on the different phase of diurnal cycle, convective TC clouds were divided into very cold deep convective clouds (IR BTs<208K) and cold high clouds (208K

  13. Zonal Wind Indices to Reconstruct CONUS Winter Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnham, David J.; Steinschneider, Scott; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal precipitation forecasts over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the 2015-2016 El Niño exhibited significant bias over many regions, especially in the western United States where seasonal information is particularly valuable for reservoir operation. Diagnosing the origin of this bias requires understanding the empirical signal from tropical heating to midlatitude precipitation. In this paper, we find that atmospheric zonal wind indices computed over the region typically associated with the winter jet stream provide a skillful, spatially distributed, linear prediction of precipitation over CONUS, over all winters (January-March; JFM). Furthermore, we show that more (less) central (eastern) Pacific Ocean heating may have contributed to the unexpected 2016 JFM CONUS precipitation and that this was likely predictable based on antecedent (December) sea surface temperatures. The zonal wind indices act as intermediate variables in a causal chain, and our analyses provide support for the potential for empirical prediction and also a diagnostic for physics-based models to help improve forecasts.

  14. Precipitation type transition regions in winter storms over southern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Ronald E.; King, Patrick

    1990-12-01

    Two winter storms passed through the Toronto area during November and December 1987. Information from radar, rawinsonde, and surface observations was analyzed in order to determine the kinematic flow fields and thermodynamic environment in the vicinity of the transition at the surface between snow and rain. This region was also linked to heavy precipitation and thunder. Updrafts preferentially occurred over the snow region, and deep near-0°C layers occurred in the transition region. Observations are consistent with a mesoscale circulation initiated by melting snow and possibly with the occurrence of symmetric instability. It is further suggested that large, possibly wet, snowflakes being formed within such deep near-0°C layers would contribute to the radar detection of precipitation bands near the precipitation transition region.

  15. Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Bo; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Ren, Hong-Li; Liu, Ying; Eade, Rosie

    2017-07-01

    Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we demonstrate prediction skill of southern China winter precipitation by three operational seasonal prediction models: the operational Global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1m). The correlation scores reach 0.76 and 0.67 in GloSea5 and CFSv2, respectively; and the amplitude of the ensemble mean forecast signal is comparable to the observed variations. The skilful predictions in GloSea5 and CFSv2 mainly benefit from the successful representation of the observed ENSO teleconnection. El Niño weakens the Walker circulation and leads to the strengthening of the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific. The anti-cyclone then induces anomalous northward flow over the South China Sea and brings water vapor to southern China, resulting in more precipitation. This teleconnection pattern is too weak in BCC-CSM1.1m, which explains its low skill (0.13). Whereas the most skilful forecast system is also able to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean on southern China precipitation via changes in southwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, we examine the real-time forecast for 2015/16 winter when a strong El Niño event led to the highest rainfall over southern China in recent decades. We find that the GloSea5 system gave good advice as it produced the third wettest southern China in the hindcast, but underestimated the observed amplitude. This is likely due to the underestimation of the Siberian High strength in 2015/2016 winter, which has driven strong convergence over southern China. We conclude that some current seasonal forecast systems can give useful warning of impending extremes. However, there is still need for further model improvement to fully represent the complex

  16. Impacts of Pacific SSTs on California Winter Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

    2017-12-01

    Consecutive below-normal precipitation years and resulted multi-year droughts are critical issues as the recent 2012-2015 drought of California caused tremendous socio-economic damages. However, studies on the causes of the multi-year droughts lack. In this study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts (1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2015) in California during the last two decades, we investigated the atmospheric and oceanic characteristics of the three drought events for winter (December-February, DJF) in order to understand large-scale circulations that are responsible for initiation, maintenance, and termination of the droughts. It was found that abnormally developed upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific are primarily responsible for precipitation deficits and then droughts. These ridges developed when negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) including La Niña events are pervasive in the tropical Pacific. After 3 or 4 years, the droughts ended under the opposite conditions; upper-tropospheric troughs in the North Pacific with El Niño events in the tropics. Results of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for the 41-year (1974/75-2014/15) 500 hPa geopotential height in DJF revealed that, during the drought periods, the positive phases of the first and second EOF mode (EOF1+ and EOF2+, respectively) were active one by one, positioning upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific. While EOF1+ is associated with cold tropical central Pacific and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), EOF2+ is associated with the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern (i.e., warm western tropical Pacific and cool eastern tropical Pacific near the southern Peru). Based on these results, we developed a regression model for winter precipitation. While dominant SST factors differ by decades, for the recent two decades (1994/1995-2014/2015), 56% variability of DJF precipitation is explained by the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern and PDO (NINO3

  17. Picophytoplankton variability: Influence of winter convective mixing and advection in the northeastern Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemal, Suchandan; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar; Shankar, D.; Remya, R.; Roy, Rajdeep

    2018-04-01

    The deepening of mixed layer and ensuing changes in optical and physicochemical properties of euphotic zone can influence phytoplankton community dynamics in the northeastern Arabian Sea during winter monsoon. The response of picophytoplankton community to such changes during winter convective mixing is not well understood. Herein, we have compared variations in the picophytoplankton community structure during early (November-December 2012), peak (end-January 2014) and late (mid-February 2015) winter monsoon from three separate cruises in the southern northeastern Arabian Sea. The higher Synechococcus abundance owing to entrainment of nutrients in mixed layer was observed during peak winter monsoon, while the concomitant changes in nitrate concentration, light and oxygen environment restricted Prochlorococcus growth resulting in lower abundance during the same period. This highlights the diverse responses of picophytoplankton groups to physicochemical changes of water column during winter convective mixing. The divinyl chlorophyll b/a ratio (marker for Prochlorococcus ecotypes) indicated prevalence of one low-light adapted ecotype (sensitive to light shock) in sub-surface water, one high-light adapted ecotype in surface water during early winter monsoon and both disappeared during intense mixing period in peak winter monsoon. Subsequently, a distinct low-light adapted ecotype, capable to tolerate light shock, was noticed during late winter monsoon and we argue that this ecotype is introduced to southern northeastern Arabian Sea through advection from north by sub-surface circulation. The total picophytoplankton biomass available to microbial loop is restored during late winter monsoon, when stratification begins, with a higher abundance of Synechococcus and the re-occurrence of Prochlorococcus population in the region. These inferences indicate that variability in picophytoplankton community structure and their contribution to the microbial loop are driven by

  18. Sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to changes in convective relaxation time scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Mishra

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to changes in convective relaxation time scale (TAU of Zhang and McFarlane (ZM cumulus parameterization, in NCAR-Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3. In the default configuration of the model, the prescribed value of TAU, a characteristic time scale with which convective available potential energy (CAPE is removed at an exponential rate by convection, is assumed to be 1 h. However, some recent observational findings suggest that, it is larger by around one order of magnitude. In order to explore the sensitivity of the model simulation to TAU, two model frameworks have been used, namely, aqua-planet and actual-planet configurations. Numerical integrations have been carried out by using different values of TAU, and its effect on simulated precipitation has been analyzed. The aqua-planet simulations reveal that when TAU increases, rate of deep convective precipitation (DCP decreases and this leads to an accumulation of convective instability in the atmosphere. Consequently, the moisture content in the lower- and mid- troposphere increases. On the other hand, the shallow convective precipitation (SCP and large-scale precipitation (LSP intensify, predominantly the SCP, and thus capping the accumulation of convective instability in the atmosphere. The total precipitation (TP remains approximately constant, but the proportion of the three components changes significantly, which in turn alters the vertical distribution of total precipitation production. The vertical structure of moist heating changes from a vertically extended profile to a bottom heavy profile, with the increase of TAU. Altitude of the maximum vertical velocity shifts from upper troposphere to lower troposphere. Similar response was seen in the actual-planet simulations. With an increase in TAU from 1 h to 8 h, there was a significant improvement in the simulation of the seasonal mean precipitation. The fraction

  19. Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, P.; Moseley, C.; Härter, Jan Olaf Mirko

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation changes can affect society more directly than variations in most other meteorological observables, but precipitation is difficult to characterize because of fluctuations on nearly all temporal and spatial scales. In addition, the intensity of extreme precipitation rises markedly at ...

  20. Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

    2018-05-01

    Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

  1. The Northern Annular Mode and winter precipitation on the Colorado Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, S.; Russell, J. L.; Overpeck, J.

    2006-12-01

    The southwestern United States receives more than half of its annual precipitation from winter storms. Winter precipitation is an important source of reservoir recharge (Sheppard et al. 2002) and plays a significant role in determining wildfire conditions in the following summer (Westerling et al. 2006). Generalized drought prediction in the Southwest is complicated by the bimodal distribution of precipitation. By focusing on winter precipitation, we can quantify the relationship between jet position and a significant portion of the annual precipitation. We will present the results from time series analyses comparing the winter Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index to instrumental and tree ring records of winter precipitation in northern Arizona over the twentieth century. Over the past two decades, the NAM has shifted into a predominantly high index pattern. One result has been a northward migration of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, and changes in the number of storms reaching the southwest are possible (Thompson and Wallace 1999). Tree ring records have been used to reconstruct winter precipitation records in a number of studies throughout the Southwest (e.g., Salzer and Kipfmueller 2005, Woodhouse 1997). Better constraint of the role of jet position in winter precipitation amount in the Southwest will allow better prediction of reservoir and soil moisture recharge and therefore, better planning of water and fire fighting resources.

  2. Prediction of winter precipitation over northwest India using ocean heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

    2016-10-01

    The winter precipitation (December-February) over northwest India (NWI) is highly variable in terms of time and space. The maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region and decreases towards south of NWI. The winter precipitation is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and for the economy of the country. It is an exigent task to the scientific community to provide a seasonal outlook for the regional scale precipitation. The oceanic heat fluxes are known to have a strong linkage with the ocean and atmosphere. Henceforth, in this study, we obtained the relationship of NWI winter precipitation with total downward ocean heat fluxes at the global ocean surface, 15 regions with significant correlations are identified from August to November at 90 % confidence level. These strong relations encourage developing an empirical model for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. The multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression (PCR) models are developed and evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. The developed regression models are able to predict the winter precipitation patterns over NWI with significant (99 % confidence level) index of agreement and correlations. Moreover, these models capture the signals of extremes, but could not reach the peaks (excess and deficit) of the observations. PCR performs better than MLR for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. Therefore, the total downward ocean heat fluxes at surface from August to November are having a significant impact on seasonal winter precipitation over the NWI. It concludes that these interrelationships are more useful for the development of empirical models and feasible to predict the winter precipitation over NWI with sufficient lead-time (in advance) for various risk management sectors.

  3. Convective and Stratiform Components of the Precipitation-Water Vapor Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, F.; Schumacher, C.

    2015-12-01

    The empirical relationship between tropical oceanic precipitation in a grid and the moisture content in the column atop the grid is well established. There exists a critical value of column moisture below which the mean precipitation is negligible, and above which it rises rapidly or "picks-up". We re-examine this relationship with a closer look at its convective and stratiform aspects, using data from the DYNAMO field campaign, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA). On daily and hourly time scales, and across all tropical ocean basins, we find that the pick-up is pronounced for stratiform rainfall, while convective rainfall, in contrast only displays a weak pick-up above column moisture. The non-linearity of the precipitation-column moisture curves and the differences between convective and stratiform curves relax at the monthly timescale. We conclude that the environmental moisture content is a stronger constraint on stratiform than convective rain. We also speculate that mesoscale dynamics are responsible for producing the strong non-linearity of the stratiform precipitation curve. These findings suggest that to accurate capture sub-grid scale convection in Global Climate Models (GCMs), we must make strides towards parameterizing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs).

  4. Tropical convective onset statistics and establishing causality in the water vapor-precipitation relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Kuo, Y. H.; Schiro, K. A.; Langenbrunner, B.; Mechoso, C. R.; Sahany, S.; Bernstein, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Previous work by various authors has pointed to the role of humidity in the lower free troposphere in affecting the onset of deep convection in the tropics. Empirical relations between column water vapor and the onset of precipitation have been inferred to be related to this. Evidence includes deep-convective conditional instability calculations for entraining plumes, in which the lower free-tropospheric environment affects the onset of deep convection due to the impact on buoyancy of turbulent entrainment of dry versus moist air. Tropical Western Pacific in situ observations, and tropical ocean basin satellite retrievals in comparison to climate model diagnostics each indicate that substantial entrainment is required to explain the observed relationship. In situ observations from the GoAmazon field campaign confirm that the basic relationship holds over tropical land much as it does over tropical ocean (although with greater additional sensitivity to boundary layer variations and to freezing processes). The relationship between deep convection and water vapor is, however, a two-way street, with convection moistening the free troposphere. One might thus argue that there has not yet been a smoking gun in terms of establishing the causality of the precipitation-water vapor relationship. Parameter perturbation experiments in the coupled Community Earth System Model show that when the deep convective scheme has low values of entrainment, the set of statistics associated with the transition to deep convection are radically altered, and the observed pickup of precipitation with column water vapor is no longer seen. In addition to cementing the dominant direction of causality in the fast timescale precipitation-column water vapor relationship, the results point to impacts of this mechanism on the climatology. Because at low entrainment the convection can fire before the lower troposphere is moistened, the climatology of water vapor remains lower than observed. These

  5. Substantial convection and precipitation enhancements by ultrafine aerosol particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zhang, Yuwei; Giangrande, Scott E.; Li, Zhanqing; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Martin, Scot T.; Yang, Yan; Wang, Jian; Artaxo, Paulo; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Braga, Ramon C.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Feng, Zhe; Gao, Wenhua; Gomes, Helber B.; Mei, Fan; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöschl, Ulrich; de Souza, Rodrigo A. F.

    2018-01-25

    Aerosol-cloud interaction remains the largest uncertainty in climate projections. Ultrafine aerosol particles (UAP; size <50nm) are considered too small to serve as cloud condensation nuclei conventionally. However, this study provides observational evidence to accompany insights from numerical simulations to support that deep convective clouds (DCCs) over Amazon have strong capability of nucleating UAP from an urban source and forming greater numbers of droplets, because fast drop coalescence in these DCCs reduces drop surface area available for condensation, leading to high vapor supersaturation. The additional droplets subsequently decrease supersaturation and release more condensational latent heating, a dominant contributor to convection intensification, whereas enhanced latent heat from ice-related processes plays a secondary role. Therefore, the addition of anthropogenic UAP may play a much greater role in modulating clouds than previously believed over the Amazon region and possibly in other relatively pristine regions such as maritime and forest locations.

  6. Substantial convection and precipitation enhancements by ultrafine aerosol particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zhang, Yuwei; Giangrande, Scott E.; Li, Zhanqing; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Martin, Scot T.; Yang, Yan; Wang, Jian; Artaxo, Paulo; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Braga, Ramon C.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Feng, Zhe; Gao, Wenhua; Gomes, Helber B.; Mei, Fan; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöschl, Ulrich; de Souza, Rodrigo A. F.

    2018-01-01

    Ultrafine aerosol particles (smaller than 50 nanometers in diameter) have been thought to be too small to affect cloud formation. Fan et al. show that this is not the case. They studied the effect of urban pollution transported into the otherwise nearly pristine atmosphere of the Amazon. Condensational growth of water droplets around the tiny particles releases latent heat, thereby intensifying atmospheric convection. Thus, anthropogenic ultrafine aerosol particles may exert a more important influence on cloud formation processes than previously believed.

  7. Effects of Convective Aggregation on Radiative Cooling and Precipitation in a CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naegele, A. C.; Randall, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    In the global energy budget, the atmospheric radiative cooling (ARC) is approximately balanced by latent heating, but on regional scales, the ARC and precipitation rates are inversely related. We use a cloud-resolving model to explore how the relationship between precipitation and the ARC is affected by convective aggregation, in which the convective activity is confined to a small portion of the domain that is surrounded by a much larger region of dry, subsiding air. Sensitivity tests show that the precipitation rate and ARC are highly sensitive to both SST and microphysics; a higher SST and 1-moment microphysics both act to increase the domain-averaged ARC and precipitation rates. In all simulations, both the domain-averaged ARC and precipitation rates increased due to convective aggregation, resulting in a positive temporal correlation. Furthermore, the radiative effect of clouds in these simulations is to decrease the ARC. This finding is consistent with our observational results of the cloud effect on the ARC, and has implications for convective aggregation and the geographic extent in which it can occur.

  8. Observational and Synoptic Analyses of the Winter Precipitation Regime Change over Utah

    OpenAIRE

    Gillies, Robert R.; Wang, Shih-Yu; Booth, Marty R.

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have indicated a widespread decline in snowpack over Utah accompanied by a decline in the snow–precipitation ratio while anecdotal evidence claims have been put forward that measured changes in Utah’s snowpack are spurious and do not reflect actual change. Using two distinct lines of investigation, this paper further analyzes the winter precipitation regime in the state of Utah. First, by means of observation-based, gridded daily temperature, precipitation, and remotely sense...

  9. Investigation of Microphysical Parameters within Winter and Summer Type Precipitation Events over Mountainous [Complex] Terrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stalker, James R.; Bossert, James E.

    1997-10-01

    In this study we investigate complex terrain effects on precipitation with RAMS for both in winter and summer cases from a microphysical perspective. We consider a two dimensional east-west topographic cross section in New Mexico representative of the Jemez mountains on the west and the Sangre de Cristo mountains on the east. Located between these two ranges is the Rio Grande Valley. In these two dimensional experiments, variations in DSDs are considered to simulate total precipitation that closely duplicate observed precipitation

  10. Simulation of Precipitation Extremes Using a Stochastic Convective Parameterization in the NCAR CAM5 Under Different Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yong; Zhang, Guang J.; He, Yu-Jun

    2017-12-01

    With the incorporation of the Plant-Craig stochastic deep convection scheme into the Zhang-McFarlane deterministic parameterization in the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5), its impact on extreme precipitation at different resolutions (2°, 1°, and 0.5°) is investigated. CAM5 with the stochastic deep convection scheme (experiment (EXP)) simulates the precipitation extreme indices better than the standard version (control). At 2° and 1° resolutions, EXP increases high percentile (>99th) daily precipitation over the United States, Europe, and China, resulting in a better agreement with observations. However, at 0.5° resolution, due to enhanced grid-scale precipitation with increasing resolution, EXP overestimates extreme precipitation over southeastern U.S. and eastern Europe. The reduced biases in EXP at each resolution benefit from a broader probability distribution function of convective precipitation intensity simulated. Among EXP simulations at different resolutions, if the spatial averaging area over which input quantities used in convective closure are spatially averaged in the stochastic convection scheme is comparable, the modeled convective precipitation intensity decreases with increasing resolution, when gridded to the same resolution, while the total precipitation is not sensitive to model resolution, exhibiting some degree of scale-awareness. Sensitivity tests show that for the same resolution, increasing the size of spatial averaging area decreases convective precipitation but increases the grid-scale precipitation.

  11. Precipitation, Convective Clouds, and Their Connections With Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensity Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhenxin; Wu, Qiaoyan

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, satellite-based precipitation, clouds with infrared (IR) brightness temperature (BT), and tropical cyclone (TC) data from 2000 to 2015 are used to explore the relationship between precipitation, convective cloud, and TC intensity change in the Western North Pacific Ocean. An IR BT of 208 K was chosen as a threshold for deep convection based on different diurnal cycles of IR BT. More precipitation and colder clouds with 208 K < IR BT < 240 K are found as storms intensify, while TC 24 h future intensity change is closely connected with very deep convective clouds with IR BT < 208 K. Intensifying TCs follow the occurrence of colder clouds with IR BT < 208 K with greater areal extents. As an indicator of very deep convective clouds, IR BT < 208 K is suggested to be a good predictor of TC intensity change. Based upon the 16 year analysis in the western North Pacific, TCs under the conditions that the mean temperature of very deep convective clouds is less than 201 K, and the coverage of this type of clouds is more than 27.4% within a radius of 300 km of the TC center, will more likely undergo rapid intensification after 24 h.

  12. Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Rodríguez-Puebla

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

  13. Characteristic features of winter precipitation and its variability over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    their birth in the Himalayas. Water supply to these .... confidence level. Figure 2. Spatial pattern of percentage of normal annual precipitation contribution for different meteorological subdivisions of India for the season DJFM. The northwest India .... Rajasthan and East Rajasthan, in that order. All the nine subdivisions are ...

  14. A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezáčová, Daniela; Sokol, Zbyněk; Pešice, Petr

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 83, 2-4 (2007), s. 211-224 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/04/0114; GA AV ČR KJB3042404; GA MŠk OC 717.20 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Local convective storm * Flash flood precipitation * Radar-based precipitation estimation * Precipitation forecast * Radar-based forecast verification Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.786, year: 2007

  15. A study of aerosol indirect effects and feedbacks on convective precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Nicolas; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric aerosols from natural and anthropogenic origin are present in the troposphere of the Mediterranean basin and continental Europe, occasionnally reaching very high concentrations in air masses with a strong content of aerosols related to mineral dust emissions, wildfires, or anthropogenic contamination [1]. On the other hand precipitations in the Mediterranean basin need to be understood precisely since drought and extreme precipitation events are a part of Mediterranean climate which can strongly affect the people and the economic activity in the Mediterranean basin [2]. The present study is a contribution to the investigations on the effects of aerosols on precipitation in the Mediterranean basin and continental Europe. For that purpose, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) parameterized with the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics schemes, performing two sensitivity simulations forced with two different aerosol climatologies during six months covering an entire summer season on a domain, covering the Mediterranean basin and continental Europe at 50 km resolution. Aerosols may affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semidirect radiative effects as well as through their indirect effects (through the changes of cloud microphysics). While it is difficult to disentangle these differents effects in reality, numerical modelling with the WRF model make it possible to isolate indirect effects by modifying them without affecting the direct or semidirect effects of aerosols in an attempt to examine the effect of aerosols on precipitations through microphysical effects only. Our first results have shown two opposite responses depending whether the precipitation are convective or large-scale. Since convective precipitations seem to be clearly inhibited by increased concentrations of cloud-condensation nuclei, we attempted to understand which processes and feedbacks are involved in this reduction of parameterized convective

  16. Sensitivity of convective precipitation to soil moisture and vegetation during break spell of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Sandeep, S.; Vinodkumar; Nhaloor, Sreejith

    2017-07-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall is characterized by large intra-seasonal fluctuations in the form of active and break spells in rainfall. This study investigates the role of soil moisture and vegetation on 30-h precipitation forecasts during the break monsoon period using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The working hypothesis is that reduced rainfall, clear skies, and wet soil condition during the break monsoon period enhance land-atmosphere coupling over central India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with modified initial soil moisture and vegetation. The results suggest that an increase in antecedent soil moisture would lead to an increase in precipitation, in general. The precipitation over the core monsoon region has increased by enhancing forest cover in the model simulations. Parameters such as Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection, and Convective Available Potential Energy indicate favorable atmospheric conditions for convection over forests, when wet soil conditions prevail. On spatial scales, the precipitation is more sensitive to soil moisture conditions over northeastern parts of India. Strong horizontal gradient in soil moisture and orographic uplift along the upslopes of Himalaya enhanced rainfall over the east of Indian subcontinent.

  17. Diurnal phase of late-night against late-afternoon of stratiform and convective precipitation in summer southern contiguous China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Rucong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); China Meteorological Administration, LaSW, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China); Yuan, Weihua [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Li, Jian [China Meteorological Administration, LaSW, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China); Fu, Yunfei [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing and Climate Environment, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2010-09-15

    Using the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations combined with the surface rain gauge data during 1998-2006, the robust diurnal features of summer stratiform and convective precipitation over the southern contiguous China are revealed by exploring the diurnal variations of rain rate and precipitation profile. The precipitation over the southern contiguous China exhibits two distinguishing diurnal phases: late-night (2200-0600 LST) and late-afternoon (1400-2200 LST), dependent on the location, precipitation type and duration time. Generally, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile of stratiform precipitation occur in the late-afternoon (late-night) over the southeastern (southwestern) China, while most of the stratiform short-duration rain rate tends to present late-afternoon peaks over the southern China. For convective precipitation, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile occur in the late-afternoon over most of the southern contiguous China, while the convective long-duration rain rate exhibits late-night peaks over the southwestern China. Without regional dependence, the convective precipitation exhibits much larger amplitude of diurnal variations in both near surface rain rate and vertical extension compared with stratiform precipitation and the convective rain top rises most rapidly between noon and afternoon. However, there are two distinctive sub-regions. The diurnal phases of precipitation there are very weakly dependent on precipitation type and duration time. Over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile of either convective or stratiform precipitation occur in the late-night. Over the southeastern coastal regions, both the near surface rain rate and rain top of convective and stratiform precipitation peak in the late-afternoon. (orig.)

  18. Studying an effect of salt powder seeding used for precipitation enhancement from convective clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drofa, A. S.; Ivanov, V. N.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shilin, A. G.

    2010-08-01

    Experimental and theoretical studies of cloud microstructure modification with hygroscopic particles for obtaining additional precipitation amounts from convective clouds are performed. The experiment used salt powder with the particle sizes that gave the greatest effectiveness according to the simulations of Segal et al. (2004). The experiments were carried out in a cloud chamber at the conditions corresponding to the formation of convective clouds. The results have shown that the introduction of the salt powder before a cloud medium is formed in the chamber results in the formation on a "tail" of additional large drops. In this case seeding with the salt powder leads also to enlargement of the whole population of cloud drops and to a decrease of their total concentration as compared to a cloud medium that is formed on background aerosols. These results are the positive factors for stimulating coagulation processes in clouds and for subsequent formation of precipitation in them. An overseeding effect, which is characterized by increased droplet concentration and decreased droplet size, was not observed even at high salt powder concentrations. The results of numerical simulations have shown that the transformation of cloud drop spectra induced by the introduction of the salt powder results in more intense coagulation processes in clouds as compared to the case of cloud modification with hygroscopic particles with relatively narrow particle size distributions, and for the distribution of the South African hygroscopic flares. The calculation results obtained with a one-dimensional model of a warm convective cloud demonstrated that the effect of salt powder on clouds (total amounts of additional precipitation) is significantly higher than the effect caused by the use of hygroscopic particles with narrow particle size distributions at comparable consumptions of seeding agents, or with respect to the hygroscopic flares. Here we show that seeding at rather low

  19. The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

    2000-01-01

    This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted

  20. Factors controlling cloud microphysics, precipitation rate, and brightness temperature of tropical convective and stratiform clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashino, T.; Casella, D.; Mugnai, A.; Sano, P.; Smith, E. A.; Tripoli, G.

    2008-12-01

    This paper discusses factors controlling cloud microphysics, precipitation rate and brightness temperature of tropical convective and stratiform clouds. Tropical convective and stratiform clouds are important in radiative forcing of climates and distribution of precipitation over the ocean. The possible effects of climate change on these clouds are still not well understood. Recent studies show that the higher CCN concentration in a convective cloud can lead to more vigorous updrafts and a higher evaporation/precipitation ratio. The stronger updraft often means stronger downdraft and gust fronts, which can trigger convection nearby. This implies that increases in CCN concentration can result in an increase in area coverage and persistence of tropical cirrus and stratiform clouds. The increased cloudiness would then be expected to lower sensible and latent heat flux from the ocean by lowering sea surface temperature, affecting the future development of convective clouds. The sea surface temperature may also change in a local area due to change of ocean circulation in climate change scenarios. Satellite remote sensing is a powerful tool to study tropical and global precipitation distribution. Many physically-based passive-microwave (MW) satellite precipitation algorithms make use of cloud radiation databases (CRDs), which typically consist of microphysical profiles from cloud resolving model (CRMs) and simulated MW brightness temperature (Tb). Thus, it is important to validate Tb simulated by a CRM against the observed Tb. Also, it is important to study how any changes in the tropical clouds due to aerosols and sea surface temperature translate into the precipitation and brightness temperature. The case study chosen is KWAJEX campaign that took place from 23 July to 14 September 1999. Authors have developed microphysical physical framework (Advanced Microphysics Prediction System) to predict ice particle properties explicitly in a CRM (University of Wisconsin

  1. Precipitation over urban areas in the western Maritime Continent using a convection-permitting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argüeso, Daniel; Di Luca, Alejandro; Evans, Jason P.

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the effects of urban areas on precipitation in the western Maritime Continent using a convection-permitting regional atmospheric model. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the atmosphere at a range of spatial resolutions using a multiple nesting approach. Two experiments (with and without urban areas) were completed over a 5-year period (2008-2012) each to estimate the contribution of cities to changes in local circulation. At first, the model is evaluated against two satellite-derived precipitation products and the benefit of using a very high-resolution model (2-km grid spacing) over a region where rainfall is dominated by convective processes is demonstrated, particularly in terms of its diurnal cycle phase and amplitude. The influence of cities on precipitation characteristics is quantified for two major urban nuclei in the region (Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur) and results indicate that their presence locally enhances precipitation by over 30 %. This increase is mainly due to an intensification of the diurnal cycle. We analyse the impact on temperature, humidity and wind to put forward physical mechanisms that explain such changes. Cities increase near surface temperature, generating instability. They also make land-sea temperature contrasts stronger, which enhances sea breeze circulations. Together, they increase near-surface moisture flux convergence and favour convective processes leading to an overall increase of precipitation over urban areas. The diurnal cycle of these effects is reflected in the atmospheric footprint of cities on variables such as humidity and cloud mixing ratio and accompanies changes in precipitation.

  2. Evaluation of the WRF Double-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme for Precipitating Convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song-You Hong

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the characteristics of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Double-Moment 6-Class (WDM6 Microphysics scheme for representing precipitating moist convection in 3D platforms, relative to the WSM6 scheme that has been widely used in the WRF community. For a case study of convective system over the Great Plains, the WDM6 scheme improves the evolutionary features such as the bow-type echo in the leading edge of the squall line. We also found that the WRF with WDM6 scheme removes spurious oceanic rainfall that is a systematic defect resulting from the use of the WSM6 scheme alone. The simulated summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia is improved by weakening (strengthening light (heavy precipitation activity. These changes can be explained by the fact that the WDM6 scheme has a wider range in cloud and rain number concentrations than does the WSM6 scheme.

  3. Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezáčová, Daniela; Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Sokol, Zbyněk

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 93, 1-3 (2009), s. 238-246 ISSN 0169-8095. [European Conference on Severe Storms /4./. Miramare -Trieste, 10.09.2007-14.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk OC 112 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Convective storm * Quantitative precipitation forecast * Uncertainty in precipitation forecasting * Ensemble forecasting * Numerical weather prediction model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01698095

  4. Convective and stratiform precipitation characteristics in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Rulfová, Zuzana; Farda, Aleš; Hanel, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 46, 1-2 (2016), s. 227-243 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 505539 - ENSEMBLES Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : regional climate models * convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * climatology * extremes * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology; DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology (UEK-B) Impact factor: 4.146, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2580-7

  5. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  6. On the effects of vertical air velocity on winter precipitation types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Thériault

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The various precipitation types formed within winter storms (such as snow, wet snow and freezing rain often lead to very hazardous weather conditions. These types of precipitation often occur during the passage of a warm front as a warm air mass ascends over a cold air mass. To address this issue further, we used a one-dimensional kinematic cloud model to simulate this gentle ascent (≤10 cm/s of warm air. The initial temperature profile has an above 0°C inversion, a lower subfreezing layer, and precipitation falls from above the temperature inversion. The cloud model is coupled to a double-moment microphysics scheme that simulates the production of various types of winter precipitation. The results are compared with those from a previous study carried out in still air. Based on the temporal evolution of surface precipitation, snow reaches the surface significantly faster than in still air whereas other precipitation types including freezing rain and ice pellets have a shorter duration. Overall, even weak background vertical ascent has an important impact on the precipitation reaching the surface, the time of the elimination of the melting layer, and also the evolution of the lower subfreezing layer.

  7. Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

    2018-01-01

    Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

  8. The influence of winter convection on primary production: A parameterisation using a hydrostatic three-dimensional biogeochemical model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grosse, Fabian; Lindemann, Christian; Pätch, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    organic carbon. The carbon export during late winter/early spring significantly exceeded the export of the reference run. Furthermore, a non-hydrostatic convection model was used to evaluate the major assumption of the presented parameterisation which implies the matching of the mixed layer depth...

  9. Precipitation in Madeira island and atmospheric rivers in the winter seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, Flavio T.; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria; Prior, Victor

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to analyse the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the Madeira's highlands over a 10-year period, as well as the main characteristics associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting the island during 10 winter seasons, and their impact in the rainfall amounts recorded near the mountain crest in the south-eastern part of the island. The period between September 2002 and November 2012 is considered for the analysis. The ARs have been identified from the total precipitable water vapour field extracted from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The AIRS observations were downloaded for a domain covering large part of the North Atlantic Ocean. The precipitable water vapour field from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis was also used aiming to support the AIRS data when there was no satellite information over the island. The daily accumulated precipitation at surface showed generally drier summers, while the highest accumulated precipitation are recorded mainly during the winter, although some significant events may occur also in autumn and spring seasons. The patterns of the precipitable water vapour field when ARs reach the island were investigated, and even if great part of the atmospheric rivers reaches the island in a dissipation stage, some rivers are heavy enough to reach the Madeira Island. In this situation, the water vapour transport could be observed in two main configurations and transporting significant water vapour amounts toward the Madeira from the tropical region. This study lead to conclude that the atmospheric rivers, when associated to high values of precipitable water vapour over the island can provide favourable conditions to the development of precipitation, sometimes associated with high amounts. However, it was also found that many cases of high to extreme accumulated precipitation at the surface were not associated to this kind of moisture transport.

  10. Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

    2017-12-01

    From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

  11. An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy

  12. An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

    2017-02-01

    Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy

  13. Simulated precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia using different CAPE-based convective closure schemes in WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Yaocun; Huang, Anning; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Lujun

    2018-03-01

    Closure assumption in convection parameterization is critical for reasonably modeling the precipitation diurnal variation in climate models. This study evaluates the precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia during the summer of 2008 simulated with three convective available potential energy (CAPE) based closure assumptions, i.e. CAPE-relaxing (CR), quasi-equilibrium (QE), and free-troposphere QE (FTQE) and investigates the impacts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing, advection, and radiation on the simulation by using the weather research and forecasting model. The sensitivity of precipitation diurnal cycle to PBL vertical resolution is also examined. Results show that the precipitation diurnal cycles simulated with different closures all exhibit large biases over land and the simulation with FTQE closure agrees best with observation. In the simulation with QE closure, the intensified PBL mixing after sunrise is responsible for the late-morning peak of convective precipitation, while in the simulation with FTQE closure, convective precipitation is mainly controlled by advection cooling. The relative contributions of different processes to precipitation formation are functions of rainfall intensity. In the simulation with CR closure, the dynamical equilibrium in the free troposphere still can be reached, implying the complex cause-effect relationship between atmospheric motion and convection. For simulations in which total CAPE is consumed for the closures, daytime precipitation decreases with increased PBL resolution because thinner model layer produces lower convection starting layer, leading to stronger downdraft cooling and CAPE consumption. The sensitivity of the diurnal peak time of precipitation to closure assumption can also be modulated by changes in PBL vertical resolution. The results of this study help us better understand the impacts of various processes on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulation.

  14. GPM SLH: Convective Latent Heating Estimated with GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Y. N.; Hamada, A.; Yokoyama, C.; Ikuta, Y.; Shige, S.; Yamaji, M.; Kubota, T.

    2017-12-01

    Three dimensional diabatic heating distribution plays essential roles to determine large-scale circulation, as well as to generate mesoscale circulation associated with tropical convection (e.g. Hartmann et al., 1984; Houze et al. 1982). For mid-latitude systems also, diabatic heating contributes to generate PVs resulting in, for example, explosive intensifications of mid-lattitude storms (Boettcher and Wernli, 2011). Previously, with TRMM PR data, we developed a Spectral Latent Heating algorithm (SLH; Shige et al. 2004, etc.) for 36N-36S region. It was based on the spectral LH tables produced from a simulation utilizing the Goddard Cloud Ensemble Model forced with the TOGA-COARE data. With GPM DPR, the observation region is extended to 65N-65S. Here, we introduce a new version of SLH algorithm which is applicable also to the mid-latitude precipitation. A new global GPM SLH ver.5 product is released as one of NASA/JAXA GPM standard products on July 11, 2017. For GPM SLH mid-latitude algorithm, we employ the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s high resolution (horizontally 2km) Local Forecast Model (LFM) to construct the LUTs. With collaborations of JMA's forecast group, forecast data for 8 extratropical cyclone cases are collected and utilized. For mid-latitude precipitation, we have to deal with large temperature gradients and complex relationship between the freezing level and cloud base levels. LUTs are constructed for LH, Q1-QR, and Q2 (Yanai et al. 1973), for six different precipitation types: Convective and shallow stratiform LUTs are made against precipitation top heights. For deep stratiform and other precipitation, LUTs are made against maximum precipitation to handle the unknown cloud-bases. Finally, three-dimensional convective latent heating is retrieved, utilizing the LUTs and precipitation profile data from GPM 2AKu. We can confirm that retrieved LH looks very similar to simulated LH, for a consistency check. We also confirm a good continuities of

  15. [Influence of planting density and precipitation on N2O emission from a winter wheat field].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y; Jiang, J; Zong, L; Zhou, Q; Sass, R L; Fisher, F M

    2001-11-01

    To investigate the impact of plant density on N2O emission from winter wheat field and the cause of seasonal variation in the emission, field experiment with four planting rates of 0, 90, 180 and 270 kg/ha was conducted at the Jiangning County near Nanjing during 1999-2000 winter wheat growing season. Data of the field measurements indicated that the N2O emission rates during the season from planting to overwintering were not influenced by the plant density, while the emission was positively correlated with the planting density during the season from turning green to maturity. The emissions from the field plots with planting rates of 0 and 90 kg/ha were not found to be significantly different. A further analysis suggested that the seasonal variation of N2O emission be mainly influenced by precipitation, which could be quantitatively described by an exponential function of a weighted average precipitation of 6-day period before measurement.

  16. The Influence of Aerosol Hygroscopicity on Precipitation Intensity During a Mesoscale Convective Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawecki, Stacey; Steiner, Allison L.

    2018-01-01

    We examine how aerosol composition affects precipitation intensity using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (version 3.6). By changing the prescribed default hygroscopicity values to updated values from laboratory studies, we test model assumptions about individual component hygroscopicity values of ammonium, sulfate, nitrate, and organic species. We compare a baseline simulation (BASE, using default hygroscopicity values) with four sensitivity simulations (SULF, increasing the sulfate hygroscopicity; ORG, decreasing organic hygroscopicity; SWITCH, using a concentration-dependent hygroscopicity value for ammonium; and ALL, including all three changes) to understand the role of aerosol composition on precipitation during a mesoscale convective system (MCS). Overall, the hygroscopicity changes influence the spatial patterns of precipitation and the intensity. Focusing on the maximum precipitation in the model domain downwind of an urban area, we find that changing the individual component hygroscopicities leads to bulk hygroscopicity changes, especially in the ORG simulation. Reducing bulk hygroscopicity (e.g., ORG simulation) initially causes fewer activated drops, weakened updrafts in the midtroposphere, and increased precipitation from larger hydrometeors. Increasing bulk hygroscopicity (e.g., SULF simulation) simulates more numerous and smaller cloud drops and increases precipitation. In the ALL simulation, a stronger cold pool and downdrafts lead to precipitation suppression later in the MCS evolution. In this downwind region, the combined changes in hygroscopicity (ALL) reduces the overprediction of intense events (>70 mm d-1) and better captures the range of moderate intensity (30-60 mm d-1) events. The results of this single MCS analysis suggest that aerosol composition can play an important role in simulating high-intensity precipitation events.

  17. Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thang M. Luong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers to simulate organized convection, principally mesoscale convective systems. With the use of convective parameterization, high precipitation biases in model simulations are typically observed over the peaks of mountain ranges. To address this issue, the Kain–Fritsch (KF cumulus parameterization scheme has been modified with new diagnostic equations to compute the updraft velocity, the convective available potential energy closure assumption, and the convective trigger function. The scheme has been adapted for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF. A numerical weather prediction-type simulation is conducted for the North American Monsoon Experiment Intensive Observing Period 2 and a regional climate simulation is performed, by dynamically downscaling. In both of these applications, there are notable improvements in the WRF model-simulated precipitation due to the better representation of organized, propagating convection. The use of the modified KF scheme for atmospheric model simulations may provide a more computationally economical alternative to improve the representation of organized convection, as compared to convective-permitting simulations at the kilometer scale or a super-parameterization approach.

  18. Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang

    2018-01-22

    A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers) to simulate organized convection, principally mesoscale convective systems. With the use of convective parameterization, high precipitation biases in model simulations are typically observed over the peaks of mountain ranges. To address this issue, the Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization scheme has been modified with new diagnostic equations to compute the updraft velocity, the convective available potential energy closure assumption, and the convective trigger function. The scheme has been adapted for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). A numerical weather prediction-type simulation is conducted for the North American Monsoon Experiment Intensive Observing Period 2 and a regional climate simulation is performed, by dynamically downscaling. In both of these applications, there are notable improvements in the WRF model-simulated precipitation due to the better representation of organized, propagating convection. The use of the modified KF scheme for atmospheric model simulations may provide a more computationally economical alternative to improve the representation of organized convection, as compared to convective-permitting simulations at the kilometer scale or a super-parameterization approach.

  19. The interdecadal change of the leading mode of the winter precipitation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jingwen; Jia, Xiaojing; Lin, Hai

    2016-10-01

    The interdecadal change of the leading mode of the mean winter precipitation over China has been investigated using observational data for the period from 1960 to 2012. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode (EOF1) of the winter precipitation over China displays a mono-sign pattern over southeastern China, accounting for 49.7 % of the total variance in the precipitation. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) can impact EOF1. A positive (negative) EOF1 is accompanied by warm (cold) ENSO events and weak (strong) EAWM, and the latters can cause anomalous southerlies (northerlies) along the coast of southeastern China, accompanied by the transportation of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea favoring a wet (dry) winter over southeastern China. An abrupt transition of the EOF1 is observed around the mid-1980s. Therefore, the data are divided into two subperiods, i.e., 1960-1987 (P1) and 1988-2009 (P2). Significant differences in the large scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EOF1 during these two subperiods are observed. EOF1 is closely related to the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation in P1, while its relationship to the tropics obviously increases during P2. The partial regression analysis results show that the interdecadal change of EOF1 is caused by both the interdecadal changes of the EAWM and ENSO around the mid-1980s. In P1, the lower-level anomalous southerlies along the coastal southeastern China accompanied by water vapor transportation that causes above-average precipitation are related to an anti-cyclonic system centered over the mid-latitude western North Pacific associated with EAWM. In P2, the influence of the EAWM is weaker, and the southerly anomaly over the coastal southeastern China is mainly caused by the anticyclone over Philippines, which is related to the ENSO.

  20. Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Garaboa-Paz

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST, the sea level pressure (SLP or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

  1. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-02-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study, the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed which corrects the radar data for errors related to attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data was implemented because such an adjustment would not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar data. The impact of the different corrections is assessed using rainfall information sampled by 42 hourly rain gauges. The largest improvement in the quality of the radar data is obtained by correcting for ground clutter. The impact of VPR correction and advection depends on the spatial variability and velocity of the precipitation system. Overall during the winter period, the radar underestimates the amount of precipitation as compared to the rain gauges. Remaining differences between both instruments can be attributed to spatial and temporal variability in the type of precipitation, which has not been taken into account.

  2. How Well Are We Measuring Snow? The NOAA/FAA/NCAR Winter Precipitation Test Bed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, B.; Rasmussen, R.; Kochendorfer, J.; Meyers, T.; Nitu, R.; Paul, J.; Smith, C.; Yang, D.

    2012-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric variables for ecosystems, hydrologic systems, climate, and weather forecasting. Despite its importance, accurate measurement remains challenging, and the lack of recent and complete inter-comparisons leads researchers to discount the importance and severity of measurement errors. These errors are exacerbated for the automated measurement of solid precipitation and underestimates of 20-50% are common. While solid precipitation measurements have been the subject of many studies, there have been only a limited number of coordinated assessments on the accuracy, reliability, and repeatability of automatic precipitation measurements. The most recent comprehensive study, the "WMO Solid Precipitation Measurement Inter-comparison" focused on manual techniques of solid precipitation measurement. Precipitation gauge technology has changed considerably in the last 12 years and the focus has shifted to automated techniques. Given the strong need for automated solid precipitation data from both the climate and weather communities, and the widely varying catch efficiencies of the various instruments, inter-comparison studies are needed. The World Meteorological Organization Committee on Meteorological Instruments and Observations (WMO-CIMO) is organizing a Solid Precipitation Inter-comparison Experiment (WMO-SPICE) focused on automatic precipitation gauges and their configurations, in various climate conditions, building on the significant efforts currently underway in many countries. The inter-comparison will aim at understanding and improving our ability to reliably measure solid precipitation using automatic gauges. The study will take place starting in 2012 at sites around the world including the US, Norway, China, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Russia, Finland and New Zealand. The NOAA /FAA/NCAR precipitation test bed in Marshall, CO. in partnership with Environment Canada will collect data during the winter of 2011/2012 to

  3. Climate change projections for winter precipitation over Tropical America using statistical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In this study the Principal Component Regression (PCR) method has been used as statistical downscaling technique for simulating boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America during the period 1950-2010, and then for generating climate change projections for 2071-2100 period. The study uses the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, version 6) data set over the Tropical America region [30°N-30°S, 120°W-30°W] as predictand variable in the downscaling model. The mean monthly sea level pressure (SLP) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis project), has been used as predictor variable, covering a more extended area [30°N-30°S, 180°W-30°W]. Also, the SLP outputs from 20 GCMs, taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been used. The model data include simulations with historical atmospheric concentrations and future projections for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The ability of the different GCMs to simulate the winter precipitation in the study area for present climate (1971-2000) was analyzed by calculating the differences between the simulated and observed precipitation values. Additionally, the statistical significance at 95% confidence level of these differences has been estimated by means of the bilateral rank sum test of Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney. Finally, to project winter precipitation in the area for the period 2071-2100, the downscaling model, recalibrated for the total period 1950-2010, was applied to the SLP outputs of the GCMs under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that, generally, for present climate the statistical downscaling shows a high ability to faithfully reproduce the precipitation field, while the simulations performed directly by using not downscaled outputs of GCMs strongly distort the precipitation field. For future climate, the projected predictions under the RCP4

  4. Isotope composition of winter precipitation and snow cover in the foothills of the Altai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Malygina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, several general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean (atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models  – GCMs have been improved by modeling the hydrological cycle with the use of isotopologues (isotopes of water HDO and H2 18O. Input parameters for the GCM models taking into account changes in the isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation were, above all, the results obtained by the network GNIP – Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. At different times, on the vast territory of Russia there were only about 40 simultaneously functioning stations where the sampling of atmospheric precipitation was performed. In this study we present the results of the isotope composition of samples taken on the foothills of the Altai during two winter seasons of 2014/15 and 2015/16. Values of the isotope composition of precipitation changed in a wide range and their maximum fluctuations were 25, 202 and 18‰ for δ18О, dexc and δD, respectively. The weighted-mean values of δ18О and δD of the precipitation analyzed for the above two seasons were close to each other (−21.1 and −158.1‰ for the first season and −21.1 and −161.9‰ for the second one, while dexc values differed significantly. The comparison of the results of isotope analysis of the snow cover integral samples with the corresponding in the time interval the weighted-mean values of precipitation showed high consistency. However, despite the similarity of values of δ18О and δD, calculated for precipitation and snow cover, and the results, interpolated in IsoMAP (from data of the GNIP stations for 1960–2010, the dexc values were close to mean annual values of IsoMAP for only the second winter season. According to the trajectory analysis (the HYSPLIT model, the revealed differences between both, the seasons, and the long-term average values of IsoMAP, were associated with a change of main regions where the air masses

  5. The response of a simulated mesoscale convective system to increased aerosol pollution: Part I: Precipitation intensity, distribution, and efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavner, Michal; Cotton, William R.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Pierce, Jeffery R.

    2018-01-01

    Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are important contributors to rainfall in the High Plains of the United States and elsewhere in the world. It is therefore of interest to understand how different aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) may impact the total amount, rates and spatial distribution of precipitation produced by MCSs. In this study, different aerosol concentrations and their effects on precipitation produced by an MCS are examined by simulating the 8 May 2009 "Super-Derecho" MCS using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with sophisticated aerosol and microphysical parameterizations. Three simulations were conducted that differed only in the initial concentration, spatial distribution, and chemical composition of aerosols. Aerosol fields were derived from the output of GEOS-Chem, a 3D chemical transport numerical model. Results from the RAMS simulations show that the total domain precipitation was not significantly affected by variations in aerosol concentrations, however, the pollution aerosols altered the precipitation characteristics. The more polluted simulations exhibited higher precipitation rates, higher bulk precipitation efficiency, a larger area with heavier precipitation, and a smaller area with lighter precipitation. These differences arose as a result of aerosols enhancing precipitation in the convective region of the MCS while suppressing precipitation from the MCS's stratiform-anvil. In the convective region, several processes likely contributed to an increase of precipitation. First, owing to the very humid environment of this storm, the enhanced amount of cloud water available to be collected overwhelmed the reduction in precipitation efficiency associated with the aerosol-induced production of smaller droplets which led to a net increase in the conversion of cloud droplets to precipitation. Second, higher aerosol concentrations led to invigoration of convective updrafts which

  6. Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

    2018-01-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

  7. Impact of Biomass Burning Aerosols on the Diurnal Cycle of Convective Clouds and Precipitation Over a Tropical Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodzic, Alma; Duvel, Jean Philippe

    2018-01-01

    A coupled weather-aerosol model is used to study the effect of biomass burning aerosols on deep convection over the Borneo Island and surrounding oceans. Simulations are performed at the convection-permitting scale (4 km) for 40 days during the boreal summer and include interactive fire emissions and the aerosol effect on radiative and microphysical processes. Intense burning occurs daily in the southern part of the island, and smoke propagates northward to regions of deep convection. The model captures well the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation and high cloud cover. Cloud microphysics and radiative aerosol impacts are considered separately. Modifications of the cloud microphysics by smoke aerosols reinforce deep convection near the central Borneo mountainous region. This reinforced convection is due to reduced shallow precipitation in the afternoon that leads to a warm planetary boundary layer anomaly at sunset enhancing deep convection at night. Aerosol absorptive properties strongly affect local and synoptic atmospheric responses. The radiative processes of moderately absorbing aerosols tend to reduce deep convection over most regions due to local surface cooling and atmosphere warming that increase the static stability. For more absorbing aerosols, however, the impact is reversed with increased nighttime convection over most regions. This is partly related to changes in the vertical water vapor divergence profiles that decrease the convergence toward Borneo for moderately absorbing aerosols and increase it for more absorbing ones. These changes in the synoptic circulation due to large-scale aerosol perturbations are as important as local processes to explain the observed rainfall perturbation patterns.

  8. On the seasonal prediction of the western United States El Niño precipitation pattern during the 2015/16 winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaosong; Jia, Liwei; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Gudgel, Rich; Underwood, Seth; Zeng, Fanrong

    2018-01-01

    A "typical" El Niño leads to wet (dry) wintertime anomalies over the southern (northern) half of the Western United States (WUS). However, during the strong El Niño of 2015/16, the WUS winter precipitation pattern was roughly opposite to this canonical (average of the record) anomaly pattern. To understand why this happened, and whether it was predictable, we use a suite of high-resolution seasonal prediction experiments with coupled climate models. We find that the unusual 2015/16 precipitation pattern was predictable at zero-lead time horizon when the ocean/atmosphere/land components were initialized with observations. However, when the ocean alone is initialized the coupled model fails to predict the 2015/16 pattern, although ocean initial conditions alone can reproduce the observed WUS precipitation during the 1997/98 strong El Niño. Further observational analysis shows that the amplitudes of the El Niño induced tropical circulation anomalies during 2015/16 were weakened by about 50% relative to those of 1997/98. This was caused by relative cold (warm) anomalies in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific suppressing (enhancing) deep convection anomalies in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific during 2015/16. The reduced El Niño teleconnection led to a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet over the southeast North Pacific and southern WUS, resulting in the unusual 2015/16 winter precipitation pattern over the WUS. This study highlights the importance of initial conditions not only in the ocean, but in the land and atmosphere as well, for predicting the unusual El Niño teleconnection and its influence on the winter WUS precipitation anomalies during 2015/16.

  9. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2010-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions

  10. The winter trends in air temperature and atmospheric precipitation in the Moldova Region (Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Machidon Ovidiu-Miron

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study is a comparative analysis of the characteristics of air temperature and atmospheric precipitations in winter seasons from the WMO reference periods (1961 - 1990, 1981 – 2010 compared with last 7 years (2010 – 2016. There is a continuous increase of air temperature in winter, from −2,0°C between 1961-1990, to −1,1°C between 2010-2016, so a heating of 0,9°C. In the last 7 years (2010-2016 the average number of frosty nights (nights with minimum temperature of ≤ −10°C was reduced by 18% compared to the period 1961-1990 and by 3% compared to the period 1981-2010. In the same period (2010 – 2016, the rainfall were higher in winter, respectively by 17% than during 1961-1990 and by 22% than during 1981-2010. There is an increase of torrential character of precipitation, more pronounced in the southern region of Moldova.

  11. Mediterranean hurricanes: large-scale environment and convective and precipitating areas from satellite microwave observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Claud

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Subsynoptic scale vortices that have been likened to tropical cyclones or polar lows (medicanes are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean Sea. Generated over the sea, they are usually associated with strong winds and heavy precipitation and thus can be highly destructive in islands and costal areas. Only an accurate forecasting of such systems could mitigate these effects. However, at the moment, the predictability of these systems remains limited.

    Due to the scarcity of conventional observations, use is made of NOAA/MetOp satellite observations, for which advantage can be taken of the time coverage differences between the platforms that carry it, to give a very complete temporal description of the disturbances. A combination of AMSU-B (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B/MHS (Microwave Humidity Sounder observations permit to investigate precipitation associated with these systems while coincident AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A observations give insights into the larger synoptic-scale environment in which they occur.

    Three different cases (in terms of intensity, location, trajectory, duration, and periods of the year – May, September and December, respectively were investigated. Throughout these time periods, AMSU-A observations show that the persisting deep outflow of cold air over the sea together with an upper-level trough upstream constituted a favourable environment for the development of medicanes. AMSU-B/MHS based diagnostics show that convection and precipitation areas are large in the early stage of the low, but significantly reduced afterwards. Convection is maximum just after the upper-level trough, located upstream of cold mid-tropospheric air, reached its maximum intensity and acquired a cyclonic orientation.

  12. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-12-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

  13. Role of atmospheric aerosol concentration on deep convective precipitation: Cloud-resolving model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2007-12-01

    A two-dimensional cloud-resolving model with detailed spectral bin microphysics is used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: south Florida, Oklahoma, and the central Pacific. A pair of model simulations, one with an idealized low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) (clean) and one with an idealized high CCN (dirty environment), is conducted for each case. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low-CCN case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN. However, this suppression only occurs during the early stages of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case to almost no effect in the Florida case to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling in the lower troposphere is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions with the low-level wind shear. Consequently, precipitation processes can be more vigorous. For example, the evaporative cooling is more than two times stronger in the lower troposphere with high CCN for the Pacific case. Sensitivity tests also suggest that ice processes are crucial for suppressing precipitation in the Oklahoma case with high CCN. A comparison and review of other modeling studies are also presented.

  14. The dynamics and relationships of precipitation, temperature and convection boundaries in the dayside auroral ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Moen

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available A continuous band of high ion temperature, which persisted for about 8h and zigzagged north-south across more than five degrees in latitude in the dayside (07:00-15:00MLT auroral ionosphere, was observed by the EISCAT VHF radar on 23 November 1999. Latitudinal gradients in the temperature of the F-region electron and ion gases (Te and Ti, respectively have been compared with concurrent observations of particle precipitation and field-perpendicular convection by DMSP satellites, in order to reveal a physical explanation for the persistent band of high Ti, and to test the potential role of Ti and Te gradients as possible markers for the open-closed field line boundary. The north/south movement of the equatorward Ti boundary was found to be consistent with the contraction/expansion of the polar cap due to an unbalanced dayside and nightside reconnection. Sporadic intensifications in Ti, recurring on ~10-min time scales, indicate that frictional heating was modulated by time-varying reconnection, and the band of high Ti was located on open flux. However, the equatorward Ti boundary was not found to be a close proxy of the open-closed boundary. The closest definable proxy of the open-closed boundary is the magnetosheath electron edge observed by DMSP. Although Te appears to be sensitive to magnetosheath electron fluxes, it is not found to be a suitable parameter for routine tracking of the open-closed boundary, as it involves case dependent analysis of the thermal balance. Finally, we have documented a region of newly-opened sunward convecting flux. This region is situated between the convection reversal boundary and the magnetosheath electron edge defining the open-closed boundary. This is consistent with a delay of several minutes between the arrival of the first (super-Alfvénic magnetosheath electrons and the response in the ionospheric

  15. The dynamics and relationships of precipitation, temperature and convection boundaries in the dayside auroral ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Moen

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available A continuous band of high ion temperature, which persisted for about 8h and zigzagged north-south across more than five degrees in latitude in the dayside (07:00-15:00MLT auroral ionosphere, was observed by the EISCAT VHF radar on 23 November 1999. Latitudinal gradients in the temperature of the F-region electron and ion gases (Te and Ti, respectively have been compared with concurrent observations of particle precipitation and field-perpendicular convection by DMSP satellites, in order to reveal a physical explanation for the persistent band of high Ti, and to test the potential role of Ti and Te gradients as possible markers for the open-closed field line boundary. The north/south movement of the equatorward Ti boundary was found to be consistent with the contraction/expansion of the polar cap due to an unbalanced dayside and nightside reconnection. Sporadic intensifications in Ti, recurring on ~10-min time scales, indicate that frictional heating was modulated by time-varying reconnection, and the band of high Ti was located on open flux. However, the equatorward Ti boundary was not found to be a close proxy of the open-closed boundary. The closest definable proxy of the open-closed boundary is the magnetosheath electron edge observed by DMSP. Although Te appears to be sensitive to magnetosheath electron fluxes, it is not found to be a suitable parameter for routine tracking of the open-closed boundary, as it involves case dependent analysis of the thermal balance. Finally, we have documented a region of newly-opened sunward convecting flux. This region is situated between the convection reversal boundary and the magnetosheath electron edge defining the open-closed boundary. This is consistent with a delay of several minutes between the arrival of the first (super-Alfvénic magnetosheath electrons and the response in the ionospheric convection, conveyed to the ionosphere by the interior Alfvén wave. It represents a candidate footprint of the

  16. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Mastsui, T.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.

    2007-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

  17. Climate change scenarios of convective and large-scale precipitation in the Czech Republic based on EURO-CORDEX data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 5 (2017), s. 2451-2465 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * regional climate models * climate change * EURO-CORDEX * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/joc.4857/abstract

  18. Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zeng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available For forecasting the maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation over the winter season at lead times of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months over Canada from 1950 to 2007, two nonlinear and two linear regression models were used, where the models were support vector regression (SVR (nonlinear and linear versions, nonlinear Bayesian neural network (BNN and multiple linear regression (MLR. The 118 stations were grouped into six geographic regions by K-means clustering. For each region, the leading principal components of the winter maximum 5-d accumulated precipitation anomalies were the predictands. Potential predictors included quasi-global sea surface temperature anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, as well as six climate indices (the Niño-3.4 region sea surface temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American teleconnection, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Scandinavia pattern, and the East Atlantic pattern. The results showed that in general the two robust SVR models tended to have better forecast skills than the two non-robust models (MLR and BNN, and the nonlinear SVR model tended to forecast slightly better than the linear SVR model. Among the six regions, the Prairies region displayed the highest forecast skills, and the Arctic region the second highest. The strongest nonlinearity was manifested over the Prairies and the weakest nonlinearity over the Arctic.

  19. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  20. A study of the relationship between cloud-to-ground lightning and precipitation in the convective weather system in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhou

    Full Text Available In this paper, the correlation between cloud-to-ground (CG lightning and precipitation has been studied by making use of the data from weather radar, meteorological soundings, and a lightning location system that includes three direction finders about 40 km apart from each other in the Pingliang area of east Gansu province in P. R. China. We have studied the convective systems that developed during two cold front processes passing over the observation area, and found that the CG lightning can be an important factor in the precipitation estimation. The regression equation between the average precipitation intensity (R and the number of CG lightning flashes (L in the main precipitation period is R = 1.69 ln (L - 0.27, and the correlation coefficient r is 0.86. The CG lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of the formation and development of the convective weather system. Another more exhaustive precipitation estimation method has been developed by analyzing the temporal and spatial distributions of the precipitation relative to the location of the CG lightning flashes. Precipitation calculated from the CG lightning flashes is very useful, especially in regions with inadequate radar cover.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (atmospheric electricity; lightning; precipitation

  1. Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kefeng; Xue, Ming; Zhou, Bowen; Zhao, Kun; Sun, Zhengqi; Fu, Peiling; Zheng, Yongguang; Zhang, Xiaoling; Meng, Qingtao

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts at a 4 km convection-permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4 km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4 km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150 mm d-1. Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4 km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations.

  2. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

    2010-05-01

    We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

  3. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Toreti

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

  4. Combined MW-IR Precipitation Evolving Technique (PET of convective rain fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Di Paola

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new multi-sensor approach for convective rain cell continuous monitoring based on rainfall derived from Passive Microwave (PM remote sensing from the Low Earth Orbit (LEO satellite coupled with Infrared (IR remote sensing Brightness Temperature (TB from the Geosynchronous (GEO orbit satellite. The proposed technique, which we call Precipitation Evolving Technique (PET, propagates forward in time and space the last available rain-rate (RR maps derived from Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS observations by using IR TB maps of water vapor (6.2 μm and thermal-IR (10.8 μm channels from a Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI radiometer. PET is based on two different modules, the first for morphing and tracking rain cells and the second for dynamic calibration IR-RR. The Morphing module uses two consecutive IR data to identify the motion vector to be applied to the rain field so as to propagate it in time and space, whilst the Calibration module computes the dynamic relationship between IR and RR in order to take into account genesis, extinction or size variation of rain cells. Finally, a combination of the Morphing and Calibration output provides a rainfall map at IR space and time scale, and the whole procedure is reiterated by using the last RR map output until a new MW-based rainfall is available. The PET results have been analyzed with respect to two different PM-RR retrieval algorithms for seven case studies referring to different rainfall convective events. The qualitative, dichotomous and continuous assessments show an overall ability of this technique to propagate rain field at least for 2–3 h propagation time.

  5. High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesús

    2017-11-01

    Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971-2000) and for the future (2071-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part.

  6. Investigation the Concentration and Trend of Winter Precipitation of Iranian Border Stations over the Last Half Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keyvan Khalili

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Climate change in the current era is a very important environmental challenge. Our understanding of the impacts of human activities on the environment, especially those related to global warming caused by increased greenhouse gases indicates that, most probably, a number of hydro-climatic parameters are changing. Based on the scientific reports, the average temperature of the earth has increased about 0.6 degrees centigrade over the 20th century and it is expected that the amount of evaporation continues to rise. In this case, the atmosphere would be able to transport larger amounts of water vapor, influencing the amount of atmospheric precipitations (21. Low precipitation and its severe fluctuations in the daily, seasonal and annual time scales are the intrinsic characteristics of Iran’s climates. Based on the research background, it seems that no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentration of winter precipitation in Iran. The aim of this study is to calculate the concentration and Trend of precipitation of Iranian border stations over the last half-century. Materials and Methods: Iran with an area of over16480000 square kilometers is situated in the northern hemisphere and southwest of Asia. Almost all parts of Iran have four seasons. In general, a year can be divided into two warm and cold seasons. In this study, 18 stations were selected among more than 200 synoptic stations existing in the country, for investigating the concentration and precipitation trend. PCI Index The PCI index has been proposed as an index of precipitation concentration. The seasonal scales of this index are calculated as equation 1(18: (1 Where Pi is the amount of monthly precipitation in the ith month. Based on the proposed formula, the minimum value of theoretical PCI is 8.3, indicating absolute uniformity in the precipitation concentration (i.e. the same amount of precipitation occurs every month. Trend analysis The aim of process test

  7. Interdecadal Variability of Winter Precipitation in Northwest China and Its Association with the North Atlantic SST Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liantong, Zhou

    2017-04-01

    Winter precipitation in Northwest China experienced an obvious interdecadal increase around 1987. Consistent increase in winter precipitation occurred in Middle Asia. The present study investigates associated changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). Analyses show that winter water vapor flux and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Eurasia and SST in the North Atlantic Ocean were very different before and after 1987. During 1987-2008, a significant enhancement of tropospheric moisture convergence and ascending motion was observed over Northwest China and Middle Asia. This contributed to the increase of winter precipitation in Northwest China and Middle Asia. The wind difference field before and after 1986/87 features cyclones over Middle Asia and northern Atlantic Ocean and anticyclones over East Asia and southern Europe-northern Africa, signifying an obvious change in the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern over middle latitudes of Eurasia. The results indicate that the Middle Asia and Northwest China were under the influence of enhanced westerlies from the North Atlantic Ocean that strengthened the water vapor transport to Middle Asia and Northwest China after 1987. Moreover, the interdecadal variability in the EU pattern is associated with the SST increase in the North Atlantic Ocean. Thus, the North Atlantic SST change is likely an important reason for the winter precipitation increase in Middle Asia and Northwest China.

  8. Forcings and feedbacks on convection in the 2010 Pakistan flood: Modeling extreme precipitation with interactive large-scale ascent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Ji; Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2016-09-01

    Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, the roles of different physical processes in producing the extreme precipitation event can be difficult to disentangle. Here we examine the large-scale forcings and convective heating feedback in the precipitation events, which caused the 2010 Pakistan flood within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A cloud-revolving model (CRM) is forced with large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation using input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. Numerical results show that the positive feedback of convective heating to large-scale dynamics is essential in amplifying the precipitation intensity to the observed values. Orographic lifting is the most important dynamic forcing in both events, while differential potential vorticity advection also contributes to the triggering of the first event. Horizontal moisture advection modulates the extreme events mainly by setting the environmental humidity, which modulates the amplitude of the convection's response to the dynamic forcings. When the CRM is replaced by either a single-column model (SCM) with parameterized convection or a dry model with a reduced effective static stability, the model results show substantial discrepancies compared with reanalysis data. The reasons for these discrepancies are examined, and the implications for global models and theoretical models are discussed.

  9. Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ignaccolo

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the variability of the shape of the renormalized drop diameter instantaneous distribution using of the third order central moment: the skewness. Disdrometer data, collected at Darwin Australia, are considered either as whole or as divided in convective and stratiform precipitation intervals. We show that in all cases the distribution of the skewness is strongly peaked around 0.64. This allows to identify a most common distribution of renormalized drop diameters and two main variations, one with larger and one with smaller skewness. The distributions shapes are independent from the stratiform vs. convective classification.

  10. [Effects of ground cover and water-retaining agent on winter wheat growth and precipitation utilization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ji-Cheng; Guan, Xiu-Juan; Yang, Yong-Hui

    2011-01-01

    An investigation was made at a hilly upland in western Henan Province to understand the effects of water-retaining agent (0, 45, and 60 kg x hm(-2)), straw mulching (3000 and 6000 kg x hm(-2)), and plastic mulching (thickness straw- or plastic mulching was combined with the use of water-retaining agent. Comparing with the control, all the measures increased the soil moisture content at different growth stages by 0.1%-6.5%. Plastic film mulching had the best water-retention effect before jointing stage, whereas water-retaining agent showed its best effect after jointing stage. Soil moisture content was the lowest at flowering and grain-filling stages. Land cover increased the grain yield by 2.6%-20.1%. The yield increment was the greatest (14.2%-20.1%) by the combined use of straw mulching and water-retaining agent, followed by plastic mulching combined with water-retaining agent (11.9% on average). Land cover also improved the precipitation use efficiency (0.4-3.2 kg x mm(-1) x hm(-2)) in a similar trend as the grain yield. This study showed that land cover and water-retaining agent improved soil moisture and nutrition conditions and precipitation utilization, which in turn, promoted the tillering of winter wheat, and increased the grain number per ear and the 1000-grain mass.

  11. Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

  12. The Impacts of Chihuahua Desert Aerosol Intrusions on Convective Clouds and Regional Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apodaca, Karina

    Growing up in a desert region influenced by a monsoon system and experiencing, first-hand, dust storms produced by convective thunderstorms stimulated my interest in the study of the impacts of aerosols on clouds. Contrary to other studies which focus more on anthropogenic aerosols, I chose to investigate the role of natural aerosols in the deserts of North America. Moreover, the role played by aerosols in desert regions within the North American Monsoon domain has not received as much attention as in other monsoon regions around the world. This dissertation describes my investigation of the connection between mineral aerosols (dust storms) and monsoon rainfall in the deserts of the Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. To develop the context for the study of the role of mineral dust in summer-time convection on a regional scale, large-scale dynamical processes and their impact on the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall were analyzed. I developed the climatology of monsoonal rainfall and dust storms using surface observations to determine which mesoscale features influence North American Monsoon rainfall in the Paso Del Norte region. The strongest correlations were found between sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of California, Gulf of California moisture surges and monsoon rainfall in the Paso Del Norte region. A connection to ENSO could not be clearly established despite analyzing twenty-one years of data. However, by breaking the data into segments, a strong correlation was found for periods of intense rainfall. Twenty-one case studies were identified in which dust storms were produced in conjunction with thunderstorms during the 2005 - 2007 monsoon seasons. However, in some cases all the conditions were there for rainfall to occur but it did not precipitate. I concluded that strong thunderstorm outflow was triggering dust storms. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem V3.1.1) was used to evaluate

  13. What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue

    2017-10-01

    Motivated by the fact that the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation anomalies during 2015/16 winter (a year of strong El Niño) over the west coast of the US and that of the El Niño composite precipitation pattern had considerable differences, the variability in the winter precipitation during strong El Niño events is assessed. The analysis is based on a set of hindcasts (1982-2011) and real-time forecasts (2012-2015) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the following aspects for seasonal mean precipitation variability were examined: (1) the mean signal during strong El Niño based on the composite analysis, and further, the variability from the composite on an event-to-event basis; (2) probability of occurrence for precipitation anomalies to be opposite to the signal (inferred as the composite mean); (3) the probability to have precipitation anomaly in different categories varying from wet to dry; and (4) variations in the characteristics of precipitation from OND, NDJ, to DJF (early to late boreal winter). The results show that the model forecasted seasonal mean precipitation composite for strong El Niño was similar to the linear regression signal with the Niño 3.4 index in observations, with negative anomalies over the Pacific Northwest and positive anomalies over California. However, although in response to an El Niño event, the California precipitation PDF was shifted towards positive values relative to the climatological PDF, the overlap between climatological PDF and the PDF for El Niño events was considerable. This is because of the large variability in seasonal mean outcomes of precipitation from one forecast to another, and therefore, chances to have precipitation anomalies with their sign opposite to the composite El Niño signal remain appreciable. In this paradigm, although the seasonal mean precipitation during 2015/16 winter over the west coast of the US differed from the mean signal for a strong El Niño event, the

  14. The Microphysical Properties of Convective Precipitation Over the Tibetan Plateau by a Subkilometer Resolution Cloud-Resolving Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Wenhua; Liu, Liping; Li, Jian; Lu, Chunsong

    2018-03-01

    The microphysical properties of convective precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau are unique because of the extremely high topography and special atmospheric conditions. In this study, the ground-based cloud radar and disdrometer observations as well as high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences microphysics and four other microphysical schemes are used to investigate the microphysics and precipitation mechanisms of a convection event on 24 July 2014. The Weather Research and Forecasting-Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-hr accumulated rainfall, yet the temporal evolution of rain rate has a delay of 1-3 hr. The model reflectivity shares the common features with the cloud radar observations. The simulated raindrop size distributions demonstrate more of small- and large-size raindrops produced with the increase of rain rate, suggesting that changeable shape parameter should be used in size distribution. Results show that abundant supercooled water exists through condensation of water vapor above the freezing layer. The prevailing ice crystal microphysical processes are depositional growth and autoconversion of ice crystal to snow. The dominant source term of snow/graupel is riming of supercooled water. Sedimentation of graupel can play a vital role in the formation of precipitation, but melting of snow is rather small and quite different from that in other regions. Furthermore, water vapor budgets suggest that surface moisture flux be the principal source of water vapor and self-circulation of moisture happen at the beginning of convection, while total moisture flux convergence determine condensation and precipitation during the convective process over the Tibetan Plateau.

  15. The sensitivity of tropical convective precipitation to the direct radiative forcings of black carbon aerosols emitted from major regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wang

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous works have suggested that the direct radiative forcing (DRF of black carbon (BC aerosols are able to force a significant change in tropical convective precipitation ranging from the Pacific and Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. In this in-depth analysis, the sensitivity of this modeled effect of BC on tropical convective precipitation to the emissions of BC from 5 major regions of the world has been examined. In a zonal mean base, the effect of BC on tropical convective precipitation is a result of a displacement of ITCZ toward the forcing (warming hemisphere. However, a substantial difference exists in this effect associated with BC over different continents. The BC effect on convective precipitation over the tropical Pacific Ocean is found to be most sensitive to the emissions from Central and North America due to a persistent presence of BC aerosols from these two regions in the lowermost troposphere over the Eastern Pacific. The BC effect over the tropical Indian and Atlantic Ocean is most sensitive to the emissions from South as well as East Asia and Africa, respectively. Interestingly, the summation of these individual effects associated with emissions from various regions mostly exceeds their actual combined effect as shown in the model run driven by the global BC emissions, so that they must offset each other in certain locations and a nonlinearity of this type of effect is thus defined. It is known that anthropogenic aerosols contain many scattering-dominant constituents that might exert an effect opposite to that of absorbing BC. The combined aerosol forcing is thus likely differing from the BC-only one. Nevertheless, this study along with others of its kind that isolates the DRF of BC from other forcings provides an insight of the potentially important climate response to anthropogenic forcings particularly related to the unique particulate solar absorption.

  16. A diagnostis study of a summer convective precipitation event in the Czech Republic using a nonhydrostatic NWP model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezáčová, Daniela; Sokol, Zbyněk

    67-68, - (2003), s. 559-572 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Project s: GA AV ČR KSK3012103; GA ČR GA205/00/1451; GA MŠk OC 717.20 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : convective precipitation event * Czech Republic * NWP model Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2003

  17. The Relationship Between Latent Heating, Vertical Velocity, and Precipitation Processes: the Impact of Aerosols on Precipitation in Organized Deep Convective Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen

    2016-01-01

    A high-resolution, two-dimensional cloud-resolving model with spectral-bin microphysics is used to study the impact of aerosols on precipitation processes in both a tropical oceanic and a midlatitude continental squall line with regard to three processes: latent heating (LH), cold pool dynamics, and ice microphysics. Evaporative cooling in the lower troposphere is found to enhance rainfall in low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration scenarios in the developing stages of a midlatitude convective precipitation system. In contrast, the tropical case produced more rainfall under high CCN concentrations. Both cold pools and low-level convergence are stronger for those configurations having enhanced rainfall. Nevertheless, latent heat release is stronger (especially after initial precipitation) in the scenarios having more rainfall in both the tropical and midlatitude environment. Sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of ice and evaporative cooling on the relationship between aerosols, LH, and precipitation processes. The results show that evaporative cooling is important for cold pool strength and rain enhancement in both cases. However, ice microphysics play a larger role in the midlatitude case compared to the tropics. Detailed analysis of the vertical velocity-governing equation shows that temperature buoyancy can enhance updraftsdowndrafts in the middlelower troposphere in the convective core region; however, the vertical pressure gradient force (PGF) is of the same order and acts in the opposite direction. Water loading is small but of the same order as the net PGF-temperature buoyancy forcing. The balance among these terms determines the intensity of convection.

  18. Improving Lightning and Precipitation Prediction of Severe Convection Using Lightning Data Assimilation With NCAR WRF-RTFDDA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haoliang; Liu, Yubao; Cheng, William Y. Y.; Zhao, Tianliang; Xu, Mei; Liu, Yuewei; Shen, Si; Calhoun, Kristin M.; Fierro, Alexandre O.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, a lightning data assimilation (LDA) scheme was developed and implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting-Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation system. In this LDA method, graupel mixing ratio (qg) is retrieved from observed total lightning. To retrieve qg on model grid boxes, column-integrated graupel mass is first calculated using an observation-based linear formula between graupel mass and total lightning rate. Then the graupel mass is distributed vertically according to the empirical qg vertical profiles constructed from model simulations. Finally, a horizontal spread method is utilized to consider the existence of graupel in the adjacent regions of the lightning initiation locations. Based on the retrieved qg fields, latent heat is adjusted to account for the latent heat releases associated with the formation of the retrieved graupel and to promote convection at the observed lightning locations, which is conceptually similar to the method developed by Fierro et al. Three severe convection cases were studied to evaluate the LDA scheme for short-term (0-6 h) lightning and precipitation forecasts. The simulation results demonstrated that the LDA was effective in improving the short-term lightning and precipitation forecasts by improving the model simulation of the qg fields, updrafts, cold pool, and front locations. The improvements were most notable in the first 2 h, indicating a highly desired benefit of the LDA in lightning and convective precipitation nowcasting (0-2 h) applications.

  19. Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fohlmeister, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Dudashvili, Alexey Sergeevich; Tjallingii, Rik; Wolff, Christian; Gafurov, Abror; Cheng, Hai

    2017-12-01

    The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

  20. The UAE Rainfall Enhancement Assessment Program: Implications of Thermodynamic Profiles on the Development of Precipitation in Convective Clouds over the Oman Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breed, D.; Bruintjes, R.; Jensen, T.; Salazar, V.; Fowler, T.

    2005-12-01

    During the winter and summer seasons of 2001 and 2002, data were collected to assess the efficacy of cloud seeding to enhance precipitation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The results of the feasibility study concluded: 1) that winter clouds in the UAE rarely produced conditions amenable to hygroscopic cloud seeding; 2) that summer convective clouds developed often enough, particularly over the Oman Mountains (e.g., the Hajar Mountains along the eastern UAE border and into Oman) to justify a randomized seeding experiment; 3) that collecting quantitative radar observations continues to be a complex but essential part of evaluating a cloud seeding experiment; 4) that successful flight operations would require solving several logistical issues; and 5) that several scientific questions would need to be studied in order to fully evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of hygroscopic cloud seeding, including cloud physical responses, radar-derived rainfall estimates as related to rainfall at the ground, and hydrological impacts. Based on these results, the UAE program proceeded through the design and implemention of a randomized hygroscopic cloud seeding experiment during the summer seasons to statistically quantify the potential for cloud seeding to enhance rainfall, specifically over the UAE and Oman Mountains, while collecting concurrent and separate physical measurements to support the statistical results and provide substantiation for the physical hypothesis. The randomized seeding experiment was carried out over the summers of 2003 and 2004, and a total of 134 cases were treated over the two summer seasons, of which 96 met the analysis criteria established in the experimental design of the program. The statistical evaluation of these cases yielded largely inconclusive results. Evidence will show that the thermodynamic profile had a large influence on storm characteristics and on precipitation development. This in turn provided a confounding factor in the conduct

  1. Winter precipitation and snow accumulation drive the methane sink or source strength of Arctic tussock tundra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc-Betes, Elena; Welker, Jeffrey M; Sturchio, Neil C; Chanton, Jeffrey P; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel A

    2016-08-01

    Arctic winter precipitation is projected to increase with global warming, but some areas will experience decreases in snow accumulation. Although Arctic CH4 emissions may represent a significant climate forcing feedback, long-term impacts of changes in snow accumulation on CH4 fluxes remain uncertain. We measured ecosystem CH4 fluxes and soil CH4 and CO2 concentrations and (13) C composition to investigate the metabolic pathways and transport mechanisms driving moist acidic tundra CH4 flux over the growing season (Jun-Aug) after 18 years of experimental snow depth increases and decreases. Deeper snow increased soil wetness and warming, reducing soil %O2 levels and increasing thaw depth. Soil moisture, through changes in soil %O2 saturation, determined predominance of methanotrophy or methanogenesis, with soil temperature regulating the ecosystem CH4 sink or source strength. Reduced snow (RS) increased the fraction of oxidized CH4 (Fox) by 75-120% compared to Ambient, switching the system from a small source to a net CH4 sink (21 ± 2 and -31 ± 1 mg CH4  m(-2)  season(-1) at Ambient and RS). Deeper snow reduced Fox by 35-40% and 90-100% in medium- (MS) and high- (HS) snow additions relative to Ambient, contributing to increasing the CH4 source strength of moist acidic tundra (464 ± 15 and 3561 ± 97 mg CH4  m(-2)  season(-1) at MS and HS). Decreases in Fox with deeper snow were partly due to increases in plant-mediated CH4 transport associated with the expansion of tall graminoids. Deeper snow enhanced CH4 production within newly thawed soils, responding mainly to soil warming rather than to increases in acetate fermentation expected from thaw-induced increases in SOC availability. Our results suggest that increased winter precipitation will increase the CH4 source strength of Arctic tundra, but the resulting positive feedback on climate change will depend on the balance between areas with more or less snow accumulation than they are currently

  2. Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Processes and their Relationship to Latent Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Steve; Zeng, Xiping; Shige, Shoichi; Takayabu, Yukari

    2009-01-01

    The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. An improved convective -stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm has been developed to obtain the 3D structure of cloud heating over the Tropics based on two sources of information: 1) rainfall information, namely its amount and the fraction due to light rain intensity, observed directly from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite and 2) synthetic cloud physics information obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of cloud systems. The cloud simulations provide details on cloud processes, specifically latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence and radiative heating/cooling, that. are not directly observable by satellite. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. One of the major differences between new and old algorithms is that the level of maximum cloud heating occurs 1 to 1.5 km lower in the atmosphere in the new algorithm. This can effect the structure of the implied air currents associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere in the Tropics. The new CSH algorithm will be used provide retrieved heating data to other heating algorithms to supplement their performance.

  3. Flipping the Western United States El Niño Precipitation Pattern during the 2015/16 Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Vecchi, G.; Jia, L.; Kapnick, S. B.; Delworth, T. L.; Gudgel, R.; Underwood, S.

    2016-12-01

    El Niño is a key source of seasonal precipitation prediction. A "typical" El Niño leads to wet (dry) wintertime anomalies over the southern (northern) half of the Western United States (WUS). However, during the 2015/16 strong El Niño, the WUS winter precipitation pattern was roughly opposite to this canonical (average of the record) anomaly pattern, and most seasonal prediction systems failed to foresee this peculiar anomaly associated with anomalous atmospheric blocking circulation over the California coastal region. Here we explore the extent to which this past winter's WUS precipitation anomalies may have been predictable. A suite of high-resolution seasonal prediction experiments shows that although the predictability of the 2015/16 WUS precipitation was substantially lower than in 1997/98, the unusual 2015/16 wintertime flipped El Niño pattern was predictable when the entire climate system (ocean, atmosphere and land) is initialized by observations. When the ocean alone is initialized, the coupled model fails to predict the 2015/16 pattern, but can reproduce the 1997/98 pattern. Further sensitivity experiments suggest that the atmospheric/land initial conditions play complementary non-linear roles in predicting the 2015/16 WUS winter precipitation pattern. This study highlights the importance of atmospheric/land initial conditions and the substantial impact of intrinsic noise in controlling the WUS regional precipitation anomalies even under the broad influence of global-scale El Niño teleconnection, previously thought to be the principal source of the WUS seasonal precipitation prediction.

  4. The Relationships Between Insoluble Precipitation Residues, Clouds, and Precipitation Over California's Southern Sierra Nevada During Winter Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creamean, Jessie M.; White, Allen B.; Minnis, Patrick; Palikonda, Rabindra; Spangenberg, Douglas A.; Prather, Kimberly A.

    2016-01-01

    Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.

  5. Impact of radiation frequency, precipitation radiative forcing, and radiation column aggregation on convection-permitting West African monsoon simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Toshi; Zhang, Sara Q.; Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Ichoku, Charles; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2018-03-01

    In this study, the impact of different configurations of the Goddard radiation scheme on convection-permitting simulations (CPSs) of the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated using the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). These CPSs had 3 km grid spacing to explicitly simulate the evolution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their interaction with radiative processes across the WAM domain and were able to reproduce realistic precipitation and energy budget fields when compared with satellite data, although low clouds were overestimated. Sensitivity experiments reveal that (1) lowering the radiation update frequency (i.e., longer radiation update time) increases precipitation and cloudiness over the WAM region by enhancing the monsoon circulation, (2) deactivation of precipitation radiative forcing suppresses cloudiness over the WAM region, and (3) aggregating radiation columns reduces low clouds over ocean and tropical West Africa. The changes in radiation configuration immediately modulate the radiative heating and low clouds over ocean. On the 2nd day of the simulations, patterns of latitudinal air temperature profiles were already similar to the patterns of monthly composites for all radiation sensitivity experiments. Low cloud maintenance within the WAM system is tightly connected with radiation processes; thus, proper coupling between microphysics and radiation processes must be established for each modeling framework.

  6. A high resolution climatology of precipitation and deep convection over the Mediterranean region from operational satellite microwave data: development and application to the evaluation of model uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Claud

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A new precipitation and convection dataset for the Mediterranean Basin, derived from operational satellite microwave data is documented. The dataset is derived from diagnostics that rely on brightness temperatures measured since 1999 in the water vapour absorption line (183–191 GHz. The dataset consists of twice-daily (a.m. and p.m. and monthly maps of precipitation and convection occurrences on a 0.2° lat × 0.2° long grid for the area 25°–60° N, 10° W–50° E. The instruments used so far are the AMSU-B sensor on the NOAA-15 to -17 satellites, and the MHS sensor on the NOAA-18 and -19 and METOP-2 satellites, with precipitation and convection available separately for the different sensors. The slightly different radiometric characteristics of MHS compared to AMSU-B do not affect significantly the continuity of the dataset. Precipitation and convection data from different sensors on different satellites are remarkably consistent, with generally small biases between the instruments. When larger biases appear, they can be explained either by the drifts in the satellite orbit, scan asymmetry, or temporal aliasing from insufficiently resolving the diurnal cycle of precipitation and convection. After a description of climatological aspects of rain and deep convection occurrence, the interest of this dataset to evaluate model uncertainties for simulating a high-impact weather event and for climatic regional runs over this area is illustrated.

  7. The impact of soil moisture variability on seasonal convective precipitation simulations. Part I: validation, feedbacks, and realistic initialisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samiro Khodayar

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available To assess how well and with what uncertainties the components of the regional water cycle, such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and precipitation, can be modelled especially in complex orographic areas and to investigate possible relationships among these parameters, numerical experiments were performed using the COSMO-CLM model in climate mode and observations from the field campaign 'Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study' (COPS, including a unique soil moisture monitoring network. Additionally, the soil moisture observations were utilised for the initialisation of model simulations to investigate the impact on the precipitation field. The simulated summer season showed a clear relation of the different parameters of the process chain between soil moisture and precipitation. Deficiencies in the external model data, such as the soil type inventory, were pointed out. The simulated precipitation field showed an overestimation mainly in the valley and at lower altitudes. However, the analysis of the soil moisture distribution revealed a major underestimation in the valley and windward Black Forest areas, i.e. (a too much rain was converted into runoff and (b the forcing data were too dry. Differences in the surface fluxes could be attributed to a wrong soil type and an inappropriate land use type. The atmospheric water vapour content was overestimated in the valley and at windward sites, but underestimated in the high orographic areas, probably because thermally induced circulation systems were not represented well by the model. These model discrepancies may partly explain the biases observed in the precipitation field. Using COPS soil moisture observations for a model initialisation, an impact on precipitation was observed until the first strong precipitation event occurred.

  8. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    OpenAIRE

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Str...

  9. Spatial distribution and frequency of precipitation during an extreme event: July 2006 mesoscale convective complexes and floods in southeastern Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, P.G.; Magirl, C.S.; Webb, R.H.; Pytlak, E.; Troch, Peter A.; Lyon, S.W.

    2009-01-01

    An extreme, multiday rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 caused record flooding and a historically unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. An unusual synoptic weather pattern induced repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems over southeastern Arizona for five continuous days, generating multiday rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Analysis of point rainfall and weather radar data yielded storm totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains at 754 grid cells approximately 1 km ?? 1 km in size. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was not unusual for typical monsoonal precipitation in this region (recurrence interval (RI) 50 years and individual grid cells had RI exceeding 1000 years. The 31 July storms caused the watersheds to be essentially saturated following 4 days of rainfall. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  11. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2017-12-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  12. Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

    2018-01-01

    Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

  13. Structure of the auroral precipitation region in the dawn sector: relationship to convection reversal boundaries and field-aligned currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Feldstein

    2001-05-01

    precipitation (AO is mapped to the dawn periphery of the Central Plasma Sheet (CPS; the soft small scale structured precipitation (SSSL is mapped to the outer magnetosphere close to the magnetopause, i.e. the Low Latitude Boundary Layer (LLBL. In the near-noon sector, earthward fluxes of soft electrons, which cause the Diffuse Red Aurora (DRA, are observed. The ion energies decrease with increasing latitude. The plasma spectra of the DRA regime are analogous to the spectra of the Plasma Mantle (PM. In the dawn sector, the large-scale field-aligned currents flow into the ionosphere at the SSSL latitudes (Region 1 and flow out at the AO or DAZ latitudes (Region 2. In the dawn and dusk sectors, the large-scale Region 1 and Region 2 FAC generation occurs in different plasma domains of the distant magnetosphere. The dawn and dusk FAC connection to the traditional Region 1 and Region 2 has only formal character, as FAC generating in various magnetospheric plasma domains integrate in the same region (Region 1 or Region 2. In the SSSL, there is anti-sunward convection; in the DAZ and the AO, there is the sunward convection. At PM latitudes, the convection is controlled by the azimuthal IMF component (By . It is suggested to extend the notation of the plasma pattern boundaries, as proposed by Newell et al. (1996, for the nightside sector of the auroral oval to the dawn sector.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (current systems; magnetospheric configuration and dynamics; plasma convection

  14. Structure of the auroral precipitation region in the dawn sector: relationship to convection reversal boundaries and field-aligned currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Feldstein

    electrons and isotropic ion precipitation (AO is mapped to the dawn periphery of the Central Plasma Sheet (CPS; the soft small scale structured precipitation (SSSL is mapped to the outer magnetosphere close to the magnetopause, i.e. the Low Latitude Boundary Layer (LLBL. In the near-noon sector, earthward fluxes of soft electrons, which cause the Diffuse Red Aurora (DRA, are observed. The ion energies decrease with increasing latitude. The plasma spectra of the DRA regime are analogous to the spectra of the Plasma Mantle (PM. In the dawn sector, the large-scale field-aligned currents flow into the ionosphere at the SSSL latitudes (Region 1 and flow out at the AO or DAZ latitudes (Region 2. In the dawn and dusk sectors, the large-scale Region 1 and Region 2 FAC generation occurs in different plasma domains of the distant magnetosphere. The dawn and dusk FAC connection to the traditional Region 1 and Region 2 has only formal character, as FAC generating in various magnetospheric plasma domains integrate in the same region (Region 1 or Region 2. In the SSSL, there is anti-sunward convection; in the DAZ and the AO, there is the sunward convection. At PM latitudes, the convection is controlled by the azimuthal IMF component (By . It is suggested to extend the notation of the plasma pattern boundaries, as proposed by Newell et al. (1996, for the nightside sector of the auroral oval to the dawn sector.

    Key words. Magnetospheric physics (current systems; magnetospheric configuration and dynamics; plasma convection

  15. Retrieving latent heating vertical structure from cloud and precipitation profiles—Part II: Deep convective and stratiform rain processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Rui; Min, Qilong; Wu, Xiaoqing; Fu, Yunfei

    2013-01-01

    An exploratory study on physical based latent heat (LH) retrieval algorithm is conducted by parameterizing the physical linkages between observed cloud and precipitation profiles to the major processes of phase change of atmospheric water. Specifically, rain is segregated into three rain types: warm, convective, and stratiform rain, based on their dynamical and thermodynamical characteristics. As the second of series, both convective and stratiform rain LH algorithms are presented and evaluated here. For convective and stratiform rain, the major LH-related microphysical processes including condensation, deposition, evaporation, sublimation, and freezing–melting are parameterized with the aid of Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations. The condensation and deposition processes are parameterized in terms of rain formation processes through the precipitation formation theory. LH associated with the freezing–melting process is relatively small and is assumed to be a fraction of total condensation and deposition LH. The evaporation and sublimation processes are parameterized for three unsaturated scenarios: rain out of the cloud body, clouds at cloud boundary and clouds and rain in downdraft region. The evaluation or self-consistency test indicates the retrievals capture the major features of LH profiles and reproduce the double peaks at right altitudes. The LH products are applicable at various stages of cloud system life cycle for high-resolution models, as well as for large-scale climate models. -- Highlights: ► An exploratory study on physics-based cold rain latent heat retrieval algorithm. ► Utilize the full information of the vertical structures of cloud and rainfall. ► Include all major LH-related microphysical processes (in ice and liquid phase). ► Directly link water mass measurements to latent heat at instantaneous pixel level. ► Applicable at various stages of cloud system life cycle

  16. Accurate Characterization of Winter Precipitation Using Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera, Visual Hull, Advanced Scattering Methods and Polarimetric Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branislav M. Notaroš

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes and presents a novel approach to the characterization of winter precipitation and modeling of radar observables through a synergistic use of advanced optical disdrometers for microphysical and geometrical measurements of ice and snow particles (in particular, a multi-angle snowflake camera—MASC, image processing methodology, advanced method-of-moments scattering computations, and state-of-the-art polarimetric radars. The article also describes the newly built and established MASCRAD (MASC + Radar in-situ measurement site, under the umbrella of CSU-CHILL Radar, as well as the MASCRAD project and 2014/2015 winter campaign. We apply a visual hull method to reconstruct 3D shapes of ice particles based on high-resolution MASC images, and perform “particle-by-particle” scattering computations to obtain polarimetric radar observables. The article also presents and discusses selected illustrative observation data, results, and analyses for three cases with widely-differing meteorological settings that involve contrasting hydrometeor forms. Illustrative results of scattering calculations based on MASC images captured during these events, in comparison with radar data, as well as selected comparative studies of snow habits from MASC, 2D video-disdrometer, and CHILL radar data, are presented, along with the analysis of microphysical characteristics of particles. In the longer term, this work has potential to significantly improve the radar-based quantitative winter-precipitation estimation.

  17. Open-ocean convection process: A driver of the winter nutrient supply and the spring phytoplankton distribution in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severin, Tatiana; Kessouri, Faycal; Rembauville, Mathieu; Sánchez-Pérez, Elvia Denisse; Oriol, Louise; Caparros, Jocelyne; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Ghiglione, Jean-François; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Taillandier, Vincent; Mayot, Nicolas; Durrieu De Madron, Xavier; Ulses, Caroline; Estournel, Claude; Conan, Pascal

    2017-06-01

    This study was a part of the DeWEX project (Deep Water formation Experiment), designed to better understand the impact of dense water formation on the marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, nutrient and phytoplankton vertical and horizontal distributions were investigated during a deep open-ocean convection event and during the following spring bloom in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NWM). In February 2013, the deep convection event established a surface nutrient gradient from the center of the deep convection patch to the surrounding mixed and stratified areas. In the center of the convection area, a slight but significant difference of nitrate, phosphate and silicate concentrations was observed possibly due to the different volume of deep waters included in the mixing or to the sediment resuspension occurring where the mixing reached the bottom. One of this process, or a combination of both, enriched the water column in silicate and phosphate, and altered significantly the stoichiometry in the center of the deep convection area. This alteration favored the local development of microphytoplankton in spring, while nanophytoplankton dominated neighboring locations where the convection reached the deep layer but not the bottom. This study shows that the convection process influences both winter nutrients distribution and spring phytoplankton distribution and community structure. Modifications of the convection's spatial scale and intensity (i.e., convective mixing depth) are likely to have strong consequences on phytoplankton community structure and distribution in the NWM, and thus on the marine food web.Plain Language SummaryThe deep open-ocean convection in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea is an important process for the formation and the circulation of the deep waters of the entire Mediterranean Sea, but also for the local spring phytoplankton bloom. In this study, we showed that variations of the convective mixing depth induced different supply in nitrate

  18. Statistics of convection initiation by use of Meteosat rapid scan data during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiko Aoshima

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Rapid Scan (RS service from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI on Meteosat8 (also called Meteosat Second Generation 1, MSG1 during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS provided five-minute scans of the latitude belt from approximately 15 to 69 °N from 1 June to 31 August 2007. With these high-temporal resolution data, we investigate convection initiation (CI in the COPS domain, an area covering the low-mountain regions of the Vosges and Black Forest with the Rhine Valley in between in eastern France/south-western Germany. In total, 94 CI events are identified during all COPS Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs for which Meteosat-8 data are available, i.e., on 30 days within 16 IOPs. The algorithm to find CI sites is illustrated by the isolated CI event of 15 July 2007 (COPS IOP 8b for which the RS brightness temperature data at 10.8 μm reveal a minimum temperature change rate at the cloud top of -4.0 K/min. We find that the CI sites are distributed over the whole COPS region; however, the CI density is about 3 times higher in the mountainous regions of the Vosges and the Black Forest (∼30 storms/(10000 km2 on the 30 days investigated in this study than in the Rhine Valley. The CI distribution shows a diurnal cycle with a pronounced CI maximum between 1300 and 1400 UTC, i.e., 2 hours after the local noon of 1130 UTC. In this 1-hour period alone, 18 % of all CI events take place (25 % if we neglect those CI events which are related to a synoptic surface front. In contrast to this, we find only 4 % of all CI events at night between 2100 and 0400 UTC.

  19. Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr, jr.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 184, February (2017), s. 24-34 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P701; GA ČR GA13-34856S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : meteorological satellite * convective storm * NWP model * verification * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.778, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516304288

  20. Low-Level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-02-01

    made with a definition including the length or separation of echoes before and after merging (Changnon, 1976; Houze and Cheng, 1977). The data...National Science Foundation, under NSF Grant ATM-78-08865. V Deep appreciation is extended to Dr. Robert Sax, now with the Joseph Oat K Corporation...of mesoscale convection and cloud merger over south Florida. Proc. lth Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Miami Beach, FL, 428-435. 194 Houze , R.A

  1. Comment on 'Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods' by Matthias Steiner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Steve; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Ferrier, B.

    2003-01-01

    Despite the obvious notion that the presence of hail or graupel is a good indication of convection, the model results show this does not provide an objective benchmark partly due to the unrealistic presence of small amounts of hail or graupel throughout the anvil in the model but mainly because of the significant amounts of hail or graupel, especially in the tropical TOGA COARE simulation, in the transition zone. Without use of a "transition" category, it is open to debate as how this region should best be defined, as stratiform or as convective. So, the presence of significant hail or graupel contents in this zone significantly degrades its use an objective benchmark for convection. The separation algorithm comparison was done in the context of a cloud-resolving model. These models are widely used and serve a variety of purposes especially with regard to retrieving information that cannot be directly measured by providing synthetic data sets that are consistent and complete. Separation algorithms are regularly applied in these models. However, as with any modeling system, these types 'of models are constantly being improved to overcome any known deficiencies and make them more accurate representations of observed systems. The presence of hail and graupel in the anvil and the bias towards heavy rainfall rates are two such examples of areas that need improvement. Since, both of these can effect the perceived performance of the separation algorithms, the Lang et al. (2003) study did not want to overstate the relative performance of any specific algorithms.

  2. Influences of large-scale convection and moisture source on monthly precipitation isotope ratios observed in Thailand, Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zhongwang; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Zhongfang; Seeboonruang, Uma; Koike, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei

    2018-04-01

    Many paleoclimatic records in Southeast Asia rely on rainfall isotope ratios as proxies for past hydroclimatic variability. However, the physical processes controlling modern rainfall isotopic behaviors in the region is poorly constrained. Here, we combined isotopic measurements at six sites across Thailand with an isotope-incorporated atmospheric circulation model (IsoGSM) and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to investigate the factors that govern the variability of precipitation isotope ratios in this region. Results show that rainfall isotope ratios are both correlated with local rainfall amount and regional outgoing longwave radiation, suggesting that rainfall isotope ratios in this region are controlled not only by local rain amount (amount effect) but also by large-scale convection. As a transition zone between the Indian monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon, the spatial difference of observed precipitation isotope among different sites are associated with moisture source. These results highlight the importance of regional processes in determining rainfall isotope ratios in the tropics and provide constraints on the interpretation of paleo-precipitation isotope records in the context of regional climate dynamics.

  3. What governs the oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation? - A case for varying proportions of isotopically-distinct, convective and stratiform rain fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, P. K.; araguas Araguas, L.; Belachew, D.; Schumacher, C.; Funk, A. B.; Longstaffe, F. J.; Terzer, S.

    2016-12-01

    Beginning with the pioneering work of Dansgaard in 1953, stable water isotope ratios have been observed to be different in precipitation from different clouds, such as convective showers and continuous frontal rain, hydrologically more or less organized systems, or those with or without `bright bands' in radar reflectivity. The variability in isotope ratios of precipitation has always been interpreted, however, using a Rayleigh distillation framework, with lower isotope ratios resulting from condensation at lower temperatures and/or greater air mass distillation, a lack of below-cloud evaporation or in-cloud re-cycling, etc. Rayleigh distillation based approaches do not account for the fact that tropical and midlatitude precipitation consists of varying proportions of two fundamental rain types - widespread but lower intensity, stratiform and spatially-limited but higher intensity, convective - which form under very different cloud dynamical and microphysical environments. Using rain type fraction and isotope data from a large set of monitoring stations, we will show that differences in cloud processes impart characteristic isotope signatures to the two rain types and that their changing proportions during storm events are primarily responsible for precipitation isotope variability. As a result, isotope ratios can be used to partition precipitation into convective or stratiform rain fractions, which is important for understanding cloud feedbacks and atmospheric circulation response to precipitation, as well as climate impacts on the water cycle. We will also discuss the changing character of tropical and midlatitude precipitation over the past several decades and its implications.

  4. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-01-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already

  5. Understanding convective extreme precipitation scaling using observations and an entraining plume model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loriaux, J.M.; Lenderink, G.; De Roode, S.R.; Siebesma, A.P.

    2013-01-01

    Previously observed twice-Clausius–Clapeyron (2CC) scaling for extreme precipitation at hourly time scales has led to discussions about its origin. The robustness of this scaling is assessed by analyzing a subhourly dataset of 10-min resolution over the Netherlands. The results confirm the validity

  6. Trends of convective and stratiform precipitation in the Czech Republic, 1982–2010

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 647938 (2014), s. 1-11 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : long-term variability * extreme precipitation * Iberian Peninsula * Poland * 20th century * temperature * probability * Germany * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/647938/

  7. Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stager, J. C.; Mayewski, P. A.; White, J.; Chase, B. M.; Neumann, F. H.; Meadows, M. E.; King, C. D.; Dixon, D. A.

    2012-05-01

    The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400-1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

  8. Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Stager

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The austral westerlies strongly influence precipitation and ocean circulation in the southern temperate zone, with important consequences for cultures and ecosystems. Global climate models anticipate poleward retreat of the austral westerlies with future warming, but the available paleoclimate records that might test these models have been limited to South America and New Zealand, are not fully consistent with each other and may be complicated by influences from other climatic factors. Here we present the first high-resolution diatom and sedimentological records from the winter rainfall region of South Africa, representing precipitation in the equatorward margin of the westerly wind belt during the last 1400 yr. Inferred rainfall was relatively high ∼1400–1200 cal yr BP, decreased until ∼950 cal yr BP, and rose notably through the Little Ice Age with pulses centred on ∼600, 530, 470, 330, 200, 90, and 20 cal yr BP. Synchronous fluctuations in Antarctic ice core chemistry strongly suggest that these variations were linked to changes in the westerlies. Equatorward drift of the westerlies during the wet periods may have influenced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by restricting marine flow around the tip of Africa. Apparent inconsistencies among some aspects of records from South America, New Zealand and South Africa warn against the simplistic application of single records to the Southern Hemisphere as a whole. Nonetheless, these findings in general do support model projections of increasing aridity in the austral winter rainfall zones with future warming.

  9. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  10. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Meraner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  11. Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

    2018-03-01

    Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

  12. Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, A. G.; Bhat, G. S.; Evans, J. G.; Madan, R.; Marsham, J. H.; Martin, G.; Mitra, A. K.; Mrudula, G.; Parker, D. J.; Pattnaik, S.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Taylor, C.; Tripathi, S. N.

    2016-12-01

    INCOMPASS will build on a field and aircraft measurement campaign from the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. This presentation will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles together with detailed

  13. The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variabilty to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and

  14. The isotopic composition of precipitation from a winter storm – a case study with the limited-area model COSMOiso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yoshimura

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Stable water isotopes are valuable tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, and potentially provide useful information also on weather-related processes. In order to further explore this potential, the water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated into the limited-area model COSMO. In a first case study, the new COSMOiso model is used for simulating a winter storm event in January 1986 over the eastern United States associated with intense frontal precipitation. The modelled isotope ratios in precipitation and water vapour are compared to spatially distributed δ18O observations. COSMOiso very accurately reproduces the statistical distribution of δ18O in precipitation, and also the synoptic-scale spatial pattern and temporal evolution agree well with the measurements. Perpendicular to the front that triggers most of the rainfall during the event, the model simulates a gradient in the isotopic composition of the precipitation, with high δ18O values in the warm air and lower values in the cold sector behind the front. This spatial pattern is created through an interplay of large scale air mass advection, removal of heavy isotopes by precipitation at the front and microphysical interactions between rain drops and water vapour beneath the cloud base. This investigation illustrates the usefulness of high resolution, event-based model simulations for understanding the complex processes that cause synoptic-scale variability of the isotopic composition of atmospheric waters. In future research, this will be particularly beneficial in combination with laser spectrometric isotope observations with high temporal resolution.

  15. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-01-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar

  16. Remote sensing of water vapor convergence, deep convection, and precipitation over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1982-1983 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardanuy, Philip E.; Cuddapah, Prabhakara; Kyle, H. Lee

    1987-12-01

    Deep tropospheric warming and mass flux, produced by the convection associated with organized tropical precipitation, is responsible on monthly and seasonal time scales for the presence of the Hadley and Walker circulations. In El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event years such as 1982-1983, in response to a perturbed sea surface temperature (SST) field in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a major displacement in the ascending branch of these thermally direct, planetary-scale cells occurs. As the northern winter monsoonal rainfall develops over the tropical Pacific Ocean near the date line, normal precipitation over Indonesia and the Amazon and Congo river valleys is suppressed. Later, as the SST maximum approaches the coast of South America, flooding occurs over Ecuador. As a direct result of the induced anomalies in the general circulation, droughts are caused not only in Indonesia but also in northern Australia and in the northern subtropical Pacific Ocean along an axis from the Phillipines to Hawaii. The scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus 7 spacecraft has been used to derive estimates of atmospheric water vapor. The correlation between the satellite and verifying radiosonde data is better than 0.83 at all stations considered. The Earth radiation budget experiment flown on the same satellite observes the terrestrial net radiation, albedo, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The OLR fields have been related to the 200-mbar divergence fields in the tropics during the First GARP Global Experiment with a correlation of 0.8. The derived relationship has been successfully extended to realistically map the irrotational flow and divergent circulation present in the troposphere both prior to and during the 1982-1983 ENSO event. Together, the two data sets yield a joint estimate of the convergent flux of water vapor, a critical controlling parameter for organized convection. The derived water vapor flux convergences are analyzed during

  17. Time variations of the effects of circulation variability modes on European temperature and precipitation in winter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Huth, Radan

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 2 (2008), s. 139-158 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/05/2282; GA AV ČR IAA300420506 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : temperature * precipitation * modes of variability * time variations * Euro-Atlantic sector Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.971, year: 2008

  18. High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, WilliamM.

    2011-01-01

    In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

  19. Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2015-01-01

    The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

  20. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution vs. long-range transported dust

    OpenAIRE

    J. Fan; L. R. Leung; P. J. DeMott; J. M. Comstock; B. Singh; D. Rosenfeld; J. M. Tomlinson; A. White; K. A. Prather; P. Minnis; J. K. Ayers; Q. Min

    2013-01-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical mode...

  1. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical mod...

  2. Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2017-12-01

    An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

  3. Multi-scale analysis of the impact of increased spatial resolution of soil moisture and atmospheric water vapour on convective precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodayar, S.; Schaedler, G.; Kalthoff, N.

    2010-09-01

    The distribution of water vapour in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and its development over time is one of the most important factors affecting precipitation processes. Despite the dense radiosonde network deployed during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), the high spatial variability of the water vapour field was not well resolved with respect to the detection of the initiation of convection. The first part of this investigation focuses on the impact of an increased resolution of the thermodynamics and dynamics of the PBL on the detection of the initiation of convection. The high spatial resolution was obtained using the synergy effect of data from the networks of radiosondes, automatic weather stations, synoptic stations, and especially Global Positioning Systems (GPSs). A method is introduced to combine GPS and radiosonde data to obtain a higher resolution representation of atmospheric water vapour. The gained spatial resolution successfully improved the representations of the areas where deep convection likelihood was high. Location and timing of the initiation of convection were critically influenced by the structure of the humidity field in the boundary-layer. The availability of moisture for precipitation is controlled by a number of processes including land surface processes, the latter are strongly influenced by spatially variable fields of soil moisture (SM) and land use. Therefore, an improved representation of both fields in regional model systems can be expected to produce better agreement between modelled and measured surface energy fluxes, boundary layer structure and precipitation. SM is currently one of the least assessed quantities with almost no data from operational monitoring networks available. However, during COPS an innovative measurement approach using a very high number of different SM sensors was introduced. The network consisted of newly developed low-cost SM sensors installed at 43 stations. Each

  4. Accurate Characterization of Winter Precipitation Using In-Situ Instrumentation, CSU-CHILL Radar, and Advanced Scattering Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, A. J.; Notaros, B. M.; Bringi, V. N.; Kleinkort, C.; Huang, G. J.; Kennedy, P.; Thurai, M.

    2015-12-01

    We present a novel approach to remote sensing and characterization of winter precipitation and modeling of radar observables through a synergistic use of advanced in-situ instrumentation for microphysical and geometrical measurements of ice and snow particles, image processing methodology to reconstruct complex particle three-dimensional (3D) shapes, computational electromagnetics to analyze realistic precipitation scattering, and state-of-the-art polarimetric radar. Our in-situ measurement site at the Easton Valley View Airport, La Salle, Colorado, shown in the figure, consists of two advanced optical imaging disdrometers within a 2/3-scaled double fence intercomparison reference wind shield, and also includes PLUVIO snow measuring gauge, VAISALA weather station, and collocated NCAR GPS advanced upper-air system sounding system. Our primary radar is the CSU-CHILL radar, with a dual-offset Gregorian antenna featuring very high polarization purity and excellent side-lobe performance in any plane, and the in-situ instrumentation site being very conveniently located at a range of 12.92 km from the radar. A multi-angle snowflake camera (MASC) is used to capture multiple different high-resolution views of an ice particle in free-fall, along with its fall speed. We apply a visual hull geometrical method for reconstruction of 3D shapes of particles based on the images collected by the MASC, and convert these shapes into models for computational electromagnetic scattering analysis, using a higher order method of moments. A two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD), collocated with the MASC, provides 2D contours of a hydrometeor, along with the fall speed and other important parameters. We use the fall speed from the MASC and the 2DVD, along with state parameters measured at the Easton site, to estimate the particle mass (Böhm's method), and then the dielectric constant of particles, based on a Maxwell-Garnet formula. By calculation of the "particle-by-particle" scattering

  5. Explorations in Aeolian Ecology: Radar and Visual Studies of the Aerofauna during the Convection and Precipitation/electrification (cape) Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Robert William

    I studied the ecology of aerial insects and birds (the "aerofauna") during the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) Experiment in Florida during the summer of 1991. Visual observations were coordinated with simultaneous measurements of atmospheric motions, permitting novel explorations of: (1) patterns and processes in the distribution of "aerial plankton" (i.e., small, weakly flying insects that drift with boundary-layer winds); (2) the feeding ecology of "aerial planktivores" (i.e., predators that feed on aerial plankton); and (3) the flight tactics of soaring birds. Sensitive Doppler radars regularly detected fine lines of enhanced reflectivity in boundary-layer convergence zones. These "fine lines" were attributable to dense concentrations of aerial plankton entrained by the convergent airflow. Insect densities were inferred to be about an order of magnitude higher inside convergence zones then elsewhere. Anecdotal observations suggested that large quantities of aerial plankton entrained in convergence zones were sometimes "scrubbed" from the boundary layer by precipitation. Radar images clearly depicted the rapid aeolian transport of aerial plankton across the landscape, but also showed that densities of aerial plankton became concentrated along coastlines when winds blew toward the sea. In contrast, airspace over the adjacent ocean remained largely free of radar echoes under all wind conditions. The coastal concentrations, together with the absence of overwater echoes, indicate that the organisms comprising the aerial plankton respond behaviorally to coastlines to avoid being blown out to sea. Several species of aerial insectivorous predators commonly exploited boundary-layer fine lines as food resources. Chimney swifts (Chaetura pelagica), barn swallows (Hirundo rustica), and wandering gliders (Pantala flavescens) showed significant responses to fine lines. Details of these responses differed, but this variation clearly reflected species

  6. The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingbao Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS is used to test the sensitivity of heavy precipitation to various model configurations: horizontal resolution, domain size, rain rate assimilation, perturbed physics, and initial condition uncertainties, through a series of convection-permitting simulations of three heavy precipitation (greater than 200 mm day−1 cases in different synoptic backgrounds. The larger disparity of intensity histograms and rainfall fluctuation caused by different model configurations from their mean and/or control run indicates that heavier precipitation forecasts have larger uncertainty. A cross-verification exercise is used to quantify the impacts of different model parameters on heavy precipitation. The dispersion of skill scores with control run used as “truth” shows that the impacts of the model resolution and domain size on the quantitative precipitation forecast are not less than those of perturbed physics and initial field uncertainties in these not intentionally selected heavy precipitation cases. The result indicates that model resolution and domain size should be considered as part of probabilistic precipitation forecasts and ensemble prediction system design besides the model initial field uncertainty.

  7. Winter precipitation effect in a mid-latitude temperature-limited environment: the case of common juniper at high elevation in the Alps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellizzari, Elena; Pividori, Mario; Carrer, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Common juniper (Juniperus communis L.) is by far the most widespread conifer in the world. However, tree-ring research dealing with this species is still scarce, mainly due to the difficulty in crossdating associated with the irregular stem shape with strip-bark growth form in older individuals and the high number of missing and wedging rings. Given that many different species of the same genus have been successfully used in tree-ring investigations and proved to be reliable climate proxies, this study aims to (i) test the possibility to successfully apply dendrochronological techniques on common juniper growing above the treeline and (ii) verify the climate sensitivity of the species with special regard to winter precipitation, a climatic factor that generally does not affect tree-ring growth in all Alpine high-elevation tree species. Almost 90 samples have been collected in three sites in the central and eastern Alps, all between 2100 and 2400 m in elevation. Despite cross-dating difficulties, we were able to build a reliable chronology for each site, each spanning over 200 years. Climate-growth relationships computed over the last century highlight that juniper growth is mainly controlled by the amount of winter precipitation. The high variability of the climate-growth associations among sites, corresponds well to the low spatial dependence of this meteorological factor. Fairly long chronologies and the presence of a significant precipitation signal open up the possibility to reconstruct past winter precipitation. (letter)

  8. Numerical Study of Winter Diurnal Convection Over the City of Krasnoyarsk: Effects of Non-freezing River, Undulating Fog and Steam Devils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrebtov, M.; Hanjalić, K.

    2017-06-01

    We performed a numerical simulation of penetrative convection of an inversion-topped weakly stratified atmospheric boundary layer over urban terrain with a strong localized source of heat and moisture. With some simplifications, the case mimics the real environment of the Krasnoyarsk region in Russia where the non-freezing river Yenisei acts as a thermal and humidity source during winter, generating an undulating fog pattern along the river accompanied with scattered `steam devils'. An idealized full diurnal cycle was simulated using an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) three-equation algebraic flux model and the novel buoyancy-accounting functions for treating the ground boundary conditions. The results show a significant effect of the river on the net temperature and moisture distribution. The localized heat and moisture source leads to strong horizontal convection and marked non-uniformity of humidity concentration in the air. An interplay of several distinct large-scale vortex systems leads to a wavy pattern of moisture plumes over the river. The simulations deal with rare natural phenomena and show the capability of the RANS turbulence closure to capture the main features of flow and scalar fields on an affordable, relatively coarse, computational grid.

  9. Model simulations with COSMO-SPECS: impact of heterogeneous freezing modes and ice nucleating particle types on ice formation and precipitation in a deep convective cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diehl, Karoline; Grützun, Verena

    2018-03-01

    In deep convective clouds, heavy rain is often formed involving the ice phase. Simulations were performed using the 3-D cloud resolving model COSMO-SPECS with detailed spectral microphysics including parameterizations of homogeneous and three heterogeneous freezing modes. The initial conditions were selected to result in a deep convective cloud reaching 14 km of altitude with strong updrafts up to 40 m s-1. At such altitudes with corresponding temperatures below -40 °C the major fraction of liquid drops freezes homogeneously. The goal of the present model simulations was to investigate how additional heterogeneous freezing will affect ice formation and precipitation although its contribution to total ice formation may be rather low. In such a situation small perturbations that do not show significant effects at first sight may trigger cloud microphysical responses. Effects of the following small perturbations were studied: (1) additional ice formation via immersion, contact, and deposition modes in comparison to solely homogeneous freezing, (2) contact and deposition freezing in comparison to immersion freezing, and (3) small fractions of biological ice nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to higher fractions of mineral dust INP. The results indicate that the modification of precipitation proceeds via the formation of larger ice particles, which may be supported by direct freezing of larger drops, the growth of pristine ice particles by riming, and by nucleation of larger drops by collisions with pristine ice particles. In comparison to the reference case with homogeneous freezing only, such small perturbations due to additional heterogeneous freezing rather affect the total precipitation amount. It is more likely that the temporal development and the local distribution of precipitation are affected by such perturbations. This results in a gradual increase in precipitation at early cloud stages instead of a strong increase at later cloud stages coupled with

  10. Onset of Convection in the Presence of a Precipitation Reaction in a Porous Medium: A Comparison of Linear Stability and Numerical Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parama Ghoshal

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Reactive convection in a porous medium has received recent interest in the context of the geological storage of carbon dioxide in saline formations. We study theoretically and numerically the gravitational instability of a diffusive boundary layer in the presence of a first-order precipitation reaction. We compare the predictions from normal mode, linear stability analysis, and nonlinear numerical simulations, and discuss the relative deviations. The application of our findings to the storage of carbon dioxide in a siliciclastic aquifer shows that while the reactive-diffusive layer can become unstable within a timescale of 1 to 1.5 months after the injection of carbon dioxide, it can take almost 10 months for sufficiently vigorous convection to produce a considerable increase in the dissolution flux of carbon dioxide.

  11. Recent interdecadal shift in the relationship between Northeast China's winter precipitation and the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tingting, Han; Shengping, He; Xin, Hao; Huijun, Wang

    2018-02-01

    This study documents an interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between Northeast China's winter precipitation (NECWP) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans in the 1990s. It is revealed that the NECWP shows a significant simultaneous correlation with the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic (SST_Atlantic)/tropical Indian Ocean (SST_Indian) during 1996-2013/1961-1990. Generally, the NECWP anomaly is concurrent with apparent Eurasian wave pattern during 1961-1990 whereas anomalous Okhotsk high and East Asia trough during 1996-2013. It is found that, before the 1990s, the warming SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean could stimulate the Eurasian wave pattern via inducing significant anomalous upper-level convergence over the northern Europe, which tends to favor a positive NECWP anomaly. During 1996-2013, the SST_Indian-NECWP connection is disrupted. Instead, the North Atlantic tri-polar SST anomaly pattern exerts a dominant impact on the NECWP through triggering a stationary Rossby wave that originates from the North Atlantic and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia and further modulates the Okhotsk high and East Asia trough. Further analyses indicate that the weakened connection between the tropical SST_Indian anomalies and the northern Ferrell circulation likely contributes to the weakening of the NECWP-SST_Indian relationship after the 1990s. However, the eastward shift and the enlarged anomalous magnitudes of the North Atlantic Oscillation might favor the strengthening of the NECWP-SST_Atlantic relationship after the mid-1990s. It is therefore suggested that the strengthened variability of the SST_Atlantic anomalies after the 1990s might partially contribute to the intensification of the interannual variability of the NECWP.

  12. Sensitivity of the Himalayan orography representation in simulation of winter precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Sinha, P.; Shekhar, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    The role of the Himalayan orography representation in a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested in NCMRWF global spectral model is examined in simulating the winter circulation and associated precipitation over the Northwest India (NWI; 23°-37.5°N and 69°-85°E) region. For this purpose, nine different set of orography representations for nine distinct precipitation years (three years each for wet, normal and dry) have been considered by increasing (decreasing) 5, 10, 15, and 20% from the mean height (CNTRL) of the Himalaya in RegCM4 model. Validation with various observations revealed a good improvement in reproducing the precipitation intensity and distribution with increased model height compared to the results obtained from CNTRL and reduced orography experiments. Further it has been found that, increase in height by 10% (P10) increases seasonal precipitation about 20%, while decrease in height by 10% (M10) results around 28% reduction in seasonal precipitation as compared to CNTRL experiment over NWI region. This improvement in precipitation simulation comes due to better representation of vertical pressure velocity and moisture transport as these factors play an important role in wintertime precipitation processes over NWI region. Furthermore, a comparison of model-simulated precipitation with observed precipitation at 17 station locations has been also carried out. Overall, the results suggest that when the orographic increment of 10% (P10) is applied on RegCM4 model, it has better skill in simulating the precipitation over the NWI region and this model is a useful tool for further regional downscaling studies.

  13. Understanding dynamics of Martian winter polar vortex with “improved” moist-convective shallow water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostami, M.; Zeitlin, V.

    2017-12-01

    We show how the properties of the Mars polar vortex can be understood in the framework of a simple shallow-water type model obtained by vertical averaging of the adiabatic “primitive” equations, and “improved” by inclusion of thermal relaxation and convective fluxes due to the phase transitions of CO 2, the major constituent of the Martian atmosphere. We perform stability analysis of the vortex, show that corresponding mean zonal flow is unstable, and simulate numerically non-linear saturation of the instability. We show in this way that, while non-linear adiabatic saturation of the instability tends to reorganize the vortex, the diabatic effects prevent this, and thus provide an explanation of the vortex form and longevity.

  14. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution vs. long-range transported dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

    2013-07-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter/spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust or dust/biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust/biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a 40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for

  15. Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, J.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Comstock, J. M.; Singh, B.; Rosenfeld, D.; Tomlinson, J. M.; White, A.; Prather, K. A.; Minnis, P.; Ayers, J. K.; Min, Q.

    2014-01-01

    Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases (from the CalWater 2011 field campaign) with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02). In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by a few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present, but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology, including cloud dynamics and the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental

  16. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as decreases in time-mean RH and vertical

  17. Model simulations with COSMO-SPECS: impact of heterogeneous freezing modes and ice nucleating particle types on ice formation and precipitation in a deep convective cloud

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Diehl

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In deep convective clouds, heavy rain is often formed involving the ice phase. Simulations were performed using the 3-D cloud resolving model COSMO-SPECS with detailed spectral microphysics including parameterizations of homogeneous and three heterogeneous freezing modes. The initial conditions were selected to result in a deep convective cloud reaching 14 km of altitude with strong updrafts up to 40 m s−1. At such altitudes with corresponding temperatures below −40 °C the major fraction of liquid drops freezes homogeneously. The goal of the present model simulations was to investigate how additional heterogeneous freezing will affect ice formation and precipitation although its contribution to total ice formation may be rather low. In such a situation small perturbations that do not show significant effects at first sight may trigger cloud microphysical responses. Effects of the following small perturbations were studied: (1 additional ice formation via immersion, contact, and deposition modes in comparison to solely homogeneous freezing, (2 contact and deposition freezing in comparison to immersion freezing, and (3 small fractions of biological ice nucleating particles (INPs in comparison to higher fractions of mineral dust INP. The results indicate that the modification of precipitation proceeds via the formation of larger ice particles, which may be supported by direct freezing of larger drops, the growth of pristine ice particles by riming, and by nucleation of larger drops by collisions with pristine ice particles. In comparison to the reference case with homogeneous freezing only, such small perturbations due to additional heterogeneous freezing rather affect the total precipitation amount. It is more likely that the temporal development and the local distribution of precipitation are affected by such perturbations. This results in a gradual increase in precipitation at early cloud stages instead of a strong increase at

  18. Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-11-15

    A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

  19. Seasonal Noise Versus Subseasonal Signal: Forecasts of California Precipitation During the Unusual Winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuguang; Anichowski, Alek; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2017-09-01

    Subseasonal forecasts of California precipitation during the unusual winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are examined in this study. It is shown that two different ensemble forecast systems were able to predict monthly precipitation anomalies in California during these periods with some skill in forecasts initialized near or at the start of the month. The unexpected anomalies in February 2016, as well as in January and February 2017, were associated with shifts in the position of the jet stream over the northeast Pacific in a manner broadly consistent with associations found in larger ensembles of forecasts. These results support the broader notion that what is unpredictable atmospheric noise at the seasonal time scale can become predictable signal at the subseasonal time scale, despite that the lead times and verification averaging times associated with these forecasts are outside the predictability horizons of canonical midrange weather forecasting.

  20. Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Winter Wheat and Cropping System Performance across Precipitation Gradients in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai M. Maaz

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ecological instability and low resource use efficiencies are concerns for the long-term productivity of conventional cereal monoculture systems, particularly those threatened by projected climate change. Crop intensification, diversification, reduced tillage, and variable N management are among strategies proposed to mitigate and adapt to climate shifts in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW. Our objectives were to assess these strategies across iPNW agroecological zones and time for their impacts on (1 winter wheat (WW (Triticum aestivum L. productivity, (2 crop sequence productivity, and (3 N fertilizer use efficiency. Region-wide analysis indicated that WW yields increased with increasing annual precipitation, prior to maximizing at 520 mm yr−1 and subsequently declining when annual precipitation was not adjusted for available soil water holding capacity. While fallow periods were effective at mitigating low nitrogen (N fertilization efficiencies under low precipitation, efficiencies declined as annual precipitation exceeded 500 mm yr−1. Variability in the response of WW yields to annual precipitation and N fertilization among locations and within sites supports precision N management implementation across the region. In years receiving <350 mm precipitation yr−1, WW yields declined when preceded by crops rather than summer fallow. Nevertheless, WW yields were greater when preceded by pulses and oilseeds rather than wheat across a range of yield potentials, and when under conservation tillage practices at low yield potentials. Despite the yield penalty associated with eliminating fallow prior to WW, cropping system level productivity was not affected by intensification, diversification, or conservation tillage. However, increased fertilizer N inputs, lower fertilizer N use efficiencies, and more yield variance may offset and limit the economic feasibility of intensified and diversified cropping systems.

  1. An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

    2017-12-01

    The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

  2. observation and analysis of the structure of winter precipitation-generating clouds using ground-based sensor measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez José Luis, Marcos; Gómez José Luis, Sánchez; Campano Laura, López; Ortega Eduardo, García; Suances Andrés, Merino; González Sergio, Fernández; Salvador Estíbaliz, Gascón; González Lucía, Hermida

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we used a 28-day database corresponding to December, January and February of 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 campaigns to analyze cloud structure that produced precipitation in the Sierra Norte near Madrid, Spain. We used remote sensing measurements, both active type like the K-band Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and passive type like the Radiometrics MP-3000A multichannel microwave radiometer. Using reflectivity data from the MRR, we determined the important microphysical parameters of Ice Water Content (IWC) and its integrated value over the atmospheric column, or Ice Water Path (IWP). Among the measurements taken by the MP-3000A were Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). By representing these data together, sharp declines in LWP and IWV were evident, coincident with IWP increases. This result indicates the ability of a K-band radar to measure the amount of ice in the atmospheric column, simultaneously revealing the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen mechanism. We also used a Present Weather Sensor (VPF-730; Biral Ltd., Bristol, UK) to determine the type and amount of precipitation at the surface. With these data, we used regression equations to establish the relationship between visibility and precipitation intensity. In addition, through theoretical precipitation visibility-intensity relationships, we estimated the type of crystal, degree of accretion (riming), and moisture content of fallen snow crystals.

  3. The INCOMPASS project field and modelling campaign: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Ganapati; Evans, Jonathan; Madan, Ranju; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Parker, Douglas; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Taylor, Christopher; Tripathi, Sachchida

    2017-04-01

    The INCOMPASS project uses data from a field and aircraft measurement campaign during the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. Here we will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles from aircraft data. We

  4. The influence of aerosol particle number and hygroscopicity on the evolution of convective cloud systems and their precipitation: A numerical study based on the COPS observations on 12 August 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planche, Céline; Wobrock, Wolfram; Flossmann, Andrea I.; Tridon, Frédéric; Van Baelen, Joël; Pointin, Yves; Hagen, Martin

    2010-10-01

    The 3D cloud model DESCAM-3D with bin resolved microphysics for ice, water and aerosol particles is used to study the role of particles on the evolution of summertime mid-level convective clouds and the subsequent precipitation during the COPS field campaign which occurred at mid-latitude near the French/German border in summer 2007. Using a 3D grid resolution of 250 m, DESCAM-3D, is able to simulate well the dynamical, cloud and precipitation features of the convective cloud system observed during the afternoon of the 12th August. This mid-level convective system was dominated by warm-phase microphysics. The simulated convective system led to a 1.5 h long lasting precipitation event in agreement with the radar observations. The results of the fine numerical scale compare well with the high resolved radar reflectivities of the LaMP X-band radar and the DLR-Poldirad radar. The prediction of the liquid hydrometeor spectra allows a detailed calculation of the cloud radar reflectivity. In order to better understand the role of aerosol particles on cloud evolution and precipitation formation, several sensitivity studies were performed by modifying aerosol number concentration as well as their physico-chemical properties. Drastic changes in the aerosol solubility lead to a variation in precipitation on the order of 10% for the same convective case. In contrast, changes in the aerosol number concentrations can lead to a variation in total precipitation of up to 30%. Hence, the role of changes in aerosol number concentrations is more important than changes in particle solubility for this case of continental mid-level convection at mid-latitude. A subsequent analysis of the in-cloud microphysics revealed that in-cloud properties are modified significantly in all scenarios. Key parameter is the supersaturation whose magnitude influences both cloud microphysics (cloud droplet and rain drop formation) as well as cloud thermodynamics and cloud dynamics. Furthermore

  5. Sensitivity of crop yield and N losses in winter wheat to changes in mean and variability of temperature and precipitation in Denmark using the FASSET model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Raveendra Hanumantagoud; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2012-01-01

    Sensitivity of wheat yield and soil nitrogen (N) losses to stepwise changes in means and variances of climatic variables were determined using the FASSET model. The LARS-WG was used to generate climate scenarios using observed climate data (1961–90) from two sites in Denmark, which differed...... in climate and soil conditions. Scenarios involved changes to (i) mean temperature alone, (ii) mean and variability of temperature, (iii) winter and summer precipitation amounts and (iv) duration of dry and wet series. The model predicted lower grain yield and N uptake in response to increases in mean...... temperatures, caused by early maturity, with little change in variability. This, however, increased soil mineral N causing increased N losses. On sandy loam, larger temperature variability lowered grain yields and increased N losses coupled with higher variability at all the mean temperature ranges. On coarse...

  6. Simulating deep convection with a shallow convection scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hohenegger

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Convective processes profoundly affect the global water and energy balance of our planet but remain a challenge for global climate modeling. Here we develop and investigate the suitability of a unified convection scheme, capable of handling both shallow and deep convection, to simulate cases of tropical oceanic convection, mid-latitude continental convection, and maritime shallow convection. To that aim, we employ large-eddy simulations (LES as a benchmark to test and refine a unified convection scheme implemented in the Single-column Community Atmosphere Model (SCAM. Our approach is motivated by previous cloud-resolving modeling studies, which have documented the gradual transition between shallow and deep convection and its possible importance for the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle.

    Analysis of the LES reveals that differences between shallow and deep convection, regarding cloud-base properties as well as entrainment/detrainment rates, can be related to the evaporation of precipitation. Parameterizing such effects and accordingly modifying the University of Washington shallow convection scheme, it is found that the new unified scheme can represent both shallow and deep convection as well as tropical and mid-latitude continental convection. Compared to the default SCAM version, the new scheme especially improves relative humidity, cloud cover and mass flux profiles. The new unified scheme also removes the well-known too early onset and peak of convective precipitation over mid-latitude continental areas.

  7. Impacts of interactive dust and its direct radiative forcing on interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in winter over East Asia: Impacts of Dust on IAVs of Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2017-08-24

    We used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leads to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of

  8. Global Coupled Model Studies of The Jovian Upper Atmosphere In Response To Electron Precipitation and Ionospheric Convection Within The Auroral Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millward, G. H.; Miller, S.; Aylward, A. D.

    The Jovian Ionospheric Model (JIM) is a global three-dimensional model of Jupiter's coupled ionosphere and thermosphere, developed at University College London. Re- cently, the model has been used to investigate the atmospheric response to electron precipitation within the high-latitude auroral region. A series of simulations have been performed in which the model atmosphere is subjected to monochromatic precipitat- ing electrons of varying number flux and initial energy and, in addition, to various degrees of ionospheric convection. The auroral ionospheric conductivity which re- sults is shown to be strongly non-linear with respect to the incoming electron energy, with a maximum observed for incident particles of initial energy 60 KeV. Electrons with higher energies penetrate the thermospheric region completely, whilst electrons of lower energy (say 10 keV) produce ionisation at higher levels in the atmosphere which are less less condusive to the creation of ionospheric conductivity. Studies of the thermospheric winds with the auroral region show that zonal winds (around the auroral oval) can attain values of around 70% of the driving zonal ion velocity. Also the results show that these large neutral winds are limited in vertical extent to the region of large ionospheric conductivity, tailing off markedly at altitudes above this. The latest results from this work will be presented, and the implications for Jovian magnetospheric-ionospheric coupling will be discussed.

  9. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

    2017-01-01

    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  10. Numerical simulation of precipitation formation in the case orographically induced convective cloud: Comparison of the results of bin and bulk microphysical schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkadi, N.; Geresdi, I.; Thompson, G.

    2016-11-01

    In this study, results of bulk and bin microphysical schemes are compared in the case of idealized simulations of pre-frontal orographic clouds with enhanced embedded convection. The description graupel formation by intensive riming of snowflakes was improved compared to prior versions of each scheme. Two methods of graupel melting coincident with collisions with water drops were considered: (1) all simulated melting and collected water drops increase the amount of melted water on the surface of graupel particles with no shedding permitted; (2) also no shedding permitted due to melting, but the collision with the water drops can induce shedding from the surface of the graupel particles. The results of the numerical experiments show: (i) The bin schemes generate graupel particles more efficiently by riming than the bulk scheme does; the intense riming of snowflakes was the most dominant process for the graupel formation. (ii) The collision-induced shedding significantly affects the evolution of the size distribution of graupel particles and water drops below the melting level. (iii) The three microphysical schemes gave similar values for the domain integrated surface precipitation, but the patterns reveal meaningful differences. (iv) Sensitivity tests using the bulk scheme show that the depth of the melting layer is sensitive to the description of the terminal velocity of the melting snow. (v) Comparisons against Convair-580 flight measurements suggest that the bin schemes simulate well the evolution of the pristine ice particles and liquid drops, while some inaccuracy can occur in the description of snowflakes riming. (vi) The bin scheme with collision-induced shedding reproduced well the quantitative characteristics of the observed bright band.

  11. Characterization of Mesoscale Convective Systems by Means of Composite Radar Reflectivity Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geerts, Bart

    1998-01-01

    A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is broadly defined as a cloud and precipitation system of mesoscale dimensions (often too large for most aircraft to circumnavigate) with deep-convective activity concentrated in at least part of the MCS, or present during part of its evolution. A large areal fraction of MCSs is stratiform in nature, yet estimates from MCSs over the Great Plains, the Southeast, and tropical waters indicate that at least half of the precipitation is of convective origin. The presence of localized convection is important, because within convective towers cloud particles and hydrometeors are carried upward towards the cloud top. Ice crystals then move over more stratiform regions, either laterally, or through in situ settling over decaying and spreading convection. These ice crystals then grow to precipitation-size particles in mid- to upper tropospheric mesoscale updrafts. The convective portion of a MCS is often a more or less continuous line of thunderstorms, and may be either short-lived or long-lived. Geerts (1997) presents a preliminary climatology of MCSs in the southeastern USA, using just one year of composite digital radar reflectivity data. In this study MCSs are identified and characterized by means of visual inspection of animated images. A total of 398 MCSs were identified. In the warm season MCSs were found to be about twice as frequent as in the cold season. The average lifetime and maximum length of MCSs are 9 hours, and 350 km, respectively, but some MCSs are much larger and more persistent. In the summer months small and short-lived MCSs are relatively more common, whereas in winter larger and longer-lived systems occur more frequently. MCSs occur more commonly in the afternoon, in phase with thunderstorm activity, but the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is small compared to that of observed thunderstorms. It is estimated that in the Southeast more than half of all precipitation and severe weather results from MCSs.

  12. Nuclear Winter: The implications for civil defense

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1987-01-01

    ''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to hypothesized cooling in the northern hemisphere following a nuclear war due to injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the original paper in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. The widespread use of 3-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling; 15 to 25 0 C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought are likely to be direct threats to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures; The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and could present problems to third parties without food reserves; and Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor unexpected threat from nuclear war to the US and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the US due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year. 6 refs

  13. Nuclear Winter: Implications for civil defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chester, C.V.; Perry, A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1988-05-01

    ''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to the cooling hypothesized to occur in the Northern Hemisphere following a nuclear war as the result of the injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the paper was published in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. Three-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling---15 to 25/degree/C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought is likely to be a direct threat to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures. The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and this could present problems to third parties who are without food reserves. Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor an unexpected threat from nuclear war to the United States and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the United States due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year.

  14. Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

    2016-09-01

    The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), convection-resolving weather and climate models allows one to explicitly resolve deep convection. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in supercomputing have led to new hybrid node designs, mixing conventional multi-core hardware and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to these architectures is the COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) model.Here we present the convection-resolving COSMO model on continental scales using a version of the model capable of using GPU accelerators. The verification of a week-long simulation containing winter storm Kyrill shows that, for this case, convection-parameterizing simulations and convection-resolving simulations agree well. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach to longer simulations by conducting a 3-month-long simulation of the summer season 2006. Its results corroborate the findings found on smaller domains such as more credible representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in convection-resolving models and a tendency to produce more intensive hourly precipitation events. Both simulations also show how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. This includes the formation of sharp cold frontal structures, convection embedded in fronts and small eddies, or the formation and organization of propagating cold pools. Finally, we assess the performance gain from using heterogeneous hardware equipped with GPUs relative to multi-core hardware. With the COSMO model, we now use a weather and climate model that

  15. Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in warm conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in winter - a model study with ECHAM6-HAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Hanna; Madonna, Erica; Witlox, Kasja; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Wernli, Heini; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2017-05-01

    While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global climate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and amount of precipitation can be detected in North Pacific warm conveyor belts. Warm conveyor belts are the strongest precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones and are identified here with a Lagrangian technique, i.e. by objectively identifying the most strongly ascending trajectories in North Pacific cyclones. These conveyor belts have been identified separately in 10-year ECHAM6-HAM simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol conditions. Then, the evolution of aerosols and cloud properties has been analysed in detail along the identified warm conveyor belt trajectories. The results show that, under present-day conditions, some warm conveyor belt trajectories are strongly polluted (i.e. high concentrations of black carbon and sulfur dioxide) due to horizontal transport from eastern Asia to the oceanic region where warm conveyor belts start their ascent. In these polluted trajectories a weak delay and reduction of precipitation formation occurs compared to clean warm conveyor belt trajectories. However, all warm conveyor belts consist of both polluted and clean trajectories at the time they start their ascent, and the typically more abundant clean trajectories strongly reduce the aerosol impact from the polluted trajectories. The main conclusion then is that the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial conditions, when all warm conveyor belt trajectories are clean, and in present-day conditions, when warm conveyor belts consist of a mixture of clean and polluted trajectories.

  16. Urban Influences on Convection and Lightning Over Houston

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gauthier, Michael L

    2006-01-01

    The research presented in this dissertation addresses a fundamental question regarding urban, ultimately anthropogenic, influences on convection as it relates to lightning production and precipitation structure...

  17. The Surface Energy Budget and Precipitation Efficiency for Convective Systems During TOGA, COARE, GATE, SCSMEX and ARM: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D; Simpson, J.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model is used to simulate convective systems that developed in various geographic locations. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum derived from field campaigns are used as the main forcing. By examining the surface energy budgets, the model results show that the two largest terms are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening) for tropical oceanic cases. These two terms arc opposite in sign, however. The contributions by net radiation and latent heat flux to the net condensation vary in these tropical cases, however. For cloud systems that developed over the South China Sea and eastern Atlantic, net radiation (cooling) accounts for about 20% or more of the net condensation. However, short-wave heating and long-wave cooling are in balance with each other for cloud systems over the West Pacific region such that the net radiation is very small. This is due to the thick anvil clouds simulated in the cloud systems over the Pacific region. Large-scale cooling exceeds large-scale moistening in the Pacific and Atlantic cases. For cloud systems over the South China Sea, however, there is more large-scale moistening than cooling even though the cloud systems developed in a very moist environment. though For three cloud systems that developed over a mid-latitude continent, the net radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes play a much more important role. This means the accurate measurement of surface fluxes and radiation is crucial for simulating these mid-latitude cases.

  18. Multi‐instrument observations from Svalbard of a traveling convection vortex, electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave burst, and proton precipitation associated with a bow shock instability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engebretson, M. J.; Yeoman, T. K.; Oksavik, K.

    2013-01-01

    of Earth observed a steady solar wind and predominantly radial interplanetary magnetic field orientation before and during this event, data from Geotail (near the morning bow shock) showed large reorientations of the interplanetary magnetic field and substantial decreases in ion density several minutes......An isolated burst of 0.35 Hz electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves was observed at four sites on Svalbard from 0947 to 0954 UT 2 January 2011, roughly 1 h after local noon. This burst was associated with one of a series of ~50 nT magnetic impulses observed at the northernmost stations...... satellite indicated that the EMIC burst was located on closed field lines, but near to the polar cap boundary. We believe these are the first simultaneous observations of EMIC waves and precipitating energetic protons so near to the boundary of the dayside magnetosphere. Although several spacecraft upstream...

  19. Winter Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Centers Harwood Training Grants Videos E-Tools Winter Storms Plan. Equip. Train To prevent injuries, illnesses and Fatalities during winter storms. This page requires that javascript be enabled ...

  20. Use of Thermal Data to Estimate Infiltration in Pagany Wash Associated with the winter of 1997-1998 El Nino Precipitation, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LeCain, G.D.; Lu, N.; Kurzmack, M.

    2000-01-01

    Temperature and air-pressure monitoring in a vertical borehole located in Pagany Wash, a normally dry stream-carved channel northeast of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, indicated that the annual temperature wave was measurable to a depth of 11.1 m. Temperature depressions were measured at depths of 3.1, 6.1, 9.2, and 11.1 m below ground surface. The temperature depressions were interpreted to be the result of infiltration associated with the 1997-1998 El Nino precipitation. A pressure differential, of approximately 2 kiloPascals, between stations located 11.1 and 24.5 m below ground surface was interpreted to be the result of compressed air ahead of the wetting front. The pressure differences between stations indicated that the wetting front migrated deeper than 35.2 m and that the Yucca Mountain Tuff retarded the downward movement of the wetting front. An analytical method indicated that the infiltration flux through the Pagany Wash alluvium due to the 1997-1998 El Nino precipitation was approximately 940 mm. A one-dimensional numerical model indicated that the infiltration flux was approximately 1000 mm. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the potential temperature decrease due to conduction was minimal and that cooler surface temperatures could not account for the measured subsurface temperature depressions

  1. Winter MVC

    OpenAIRE

    Castellón Gadea, Pasqual

    2013-01-01

    Winter MVC és un framework de presentació basat en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodologia de configuracions. Winter MVC es un framework de presentación basado en Spring MVC que simplifica la metodología de configuraciones. Winter MVC is a presentation framework that simplifies Spring MVC configuration methodology.

  2. Substorms and polar cap convection: the 10 January 2004 interplanetary CME case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Andalsvik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The expansion-contraction model of Dungey cell plasma convection has two different convection sources, i.e. reconnections at the magnetopause and in the magnetotail. The spatial-temporal structure of the nightside source is not yet well understood. In this study we shall identify temporal variations in the winter polar cap convection structure during substorm activity under steady interplanetary conditions. Substorm activity (electrojets and particle precipitations is monitored by excellent ground-satellite DMSP F15 conjunctions in the dusk-premidnight sector. We take advantage of the wide latitudinal coverage of the IMAGE chain of ground magnetometers in Svalbard – Scandinavia – Russia for the purpose of monitoring magnetic deflections associated with polar cap convection and substorm electrojets. These are augmented by direct observations of polar cap convection derived from SuperDARN radars and cross-track ion drift observations during traversals of polar cap along the dusk-dawn meridian by spacecraft DMSP F13. The interval we study is characterized by moderate, stable forcing of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system (EKL = 4.0–4.5 mV m−1; cross polar cap potential (CPCP, Φ (Boyle = 115 kV during Earth passage of an interplanetary CME (ICME, choosing an 4-h interval where the magnetic field pointed continuously south-west (Bz By By polarity of the ICME magnetic field, a clear indication of a nightside source.

  3. Convection Signatures and the Age of Air in the Upper Troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perring, A. E.; Bertram, T. H.; Wooldridge, P. J.; Cohen, R. C.; Crounse, J. D.; Wennberg, P. O.; Dibb, J.; Scheuer, E.; Walega, J.; Fried, A.; Vay, S. A.; Hiekes, B.; Kim, S.; Huey, G.; Porter, M.; Fuelberg, H.

    2005-12-01

    Observations of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) over the continental United States reveal strong signatures of convective pumping of both boundary layer and lighting NOx to the Upper Troposphere (UT) (8-12.5km) during the summer (INTEX-NA July-August 2004). This influence may require adjustments to a priori assumptions about NO2 profiles used in OMI or SCIAMACHY NO2 retrievals. As expected, similar profiles during the winter (PAVE January 2005) show no signs of enhanced NOx in the UT. Quantifying the role of convection and lightning is a long standing challenge for tropospheric chemistry. Another challenge has been to provide a clock indicating the time that air has spent in the free troposphere since convection. Following on the suggestion of Jaegle et al. [1998] that convective injection of boundary layer and lightning NOx and concurrent precipitation scavenging of HNO3 offers an initial condition that can be used to provide timing information, we use the ratio of NOx/HNO3 as an indicator of convective influence and a measure of the timing of that influence.

  4. Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slangen, A. B. A.; Schmeits, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    The development and verification of a probabilistic forecast system for winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is described. We have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) to develop the probabilistic forecast equations. The MOS system consists of 32 logistic regression equations, i.e. for two forecast periods (0-6 h and 6-12 h), four 90×80 km2 regions around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and four 6-h time periods. For the predictand quality-controlled Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) total lightning data were used. The potential predictors were calculated from postprocessed output of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models - i.e. the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model - and from an ensemble of advected lightning and radar data (0-6 h projections only). The predictors that are selected most often are the HIRLAM Boyden index, the square root of the ECMWF 3-h and 6-h convective precipitation sum, the HIRLAM convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two radar advection predictors. An objective verification was done, from which it can be concluded that the MOS system is skilful. The forecast system runs at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on an experimental basis, with the primary objective to warn aircraft pilots for potential aircraft induced lightning (AIL) risk during winter.

  5. Heat convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiji, L.M. [City Univ. of New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2006-07-01

    Professor Jiji's broad teaching experience lead him to select the topics for this book to provide a firm foundation for convection heat transfer with emphasis on fundamentals, physical phenomena, and mathematical modelling of a wide range of engineering applications. Reflecting recent developments, this textbook is the first to include an introduction to the challenging topic of microchannels. The strong pedagogic potential of Heat Convection is enhanced by the following ancillary materials: (1) Power Point lectures, (2) Problem Solutions, (3) Homework Facilitator, and, (4) Summary of Sections and Chapters. (orig.)

  6. Heat Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiji, Latif M.

    Professor Jiji's broad teaching experience lead him to select the topics for this book to provide a firm foundation for convection heat transfer with emphasis on fundamentals, physical phenomena, and mathematical modelling of a wide range of engineering applications. Reflecting recent developments, this textbook is the first to include an introduction to the challenging topic of microchannels. The strong pedagogic potential of Heat Convection is enhanced by the follow ing ancillary materials: (1) Power Point lectures, (2) Problem Solutions, (3) Homework Facilitator, and, (4) Summary of Sections and Chapters.

  7. Seasonal effects in the ionosphere-thermosphere response to the precipitation and field-aligned current variations in the cusp region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Namgaladze

    1998-10-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal effects in the thermosphere and ionosphere responses to the precipitating electron flux and field-aligned current variations, of the order of an hour in duration, in the summer and winter cusp regions have been investigated using the global numerical model of the Earth's upper atmosphere. Two variants of the calculations have been performed both for the IMF By < 0. In the first variant, the model input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken as geomagnetically symmetric and equal to those used earlier in the calculations for the equinoctial conditions. It has been found that both ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances are more intensive in the winter cusp region due to the lower conductivity of the winter polar cap ionosphere and correspondingly larger electric field variations leading to the larger Joule heating effects in the ion and neutral gas temperature, ion drag effects in the thermospheric winds and ion drift effects in the F2-region electron concentration. In the second variant, the calculations have been performed for the events of 28–29 January, 1992 when precipitations were weaker but the magnetospheric convection was stronger than in the first variant. Geomagnetically asymmetric input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken from the patterns derived by combining data obtained from the satellite, radar and ground magnetometer observations for these events. Calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection and thermospheric circulation have been compared with observations and it has been established that calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection for both winter and summer hemispheres are in a good agreement with the observations. Calculated patterns of the thermospheric circulation are in a good agreement with the average circulation for the Southern (summer Hemisphere obtained from DE-2 data for IMF

  8. Sensitivity of historical orographically enhanced extreme precipitation events to idealized temperature perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandvik, Mari Ingeborg; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Rasmussen, Roy

    2018-01-01

    Using high resolution convective permitting simulations, we have investigated the sensitivity of historical orographically enhanced extreme precipitation events to idealized temperature perturbations. Our simulations were typical autumn and winter synoptic scale extreme precipitation events on the west coast of Norway. The response in daily mean precipitation was around 5%/K for a 2 °C temperature perturbation with a clear topographical pattern. Low lying coastal regions experienced relative changes that were only about 1/3 of the changes at higher elevations. The largest changes were seen in the highest elevations of the near coastal mountain regions where the change was in order of +7.5%/K. With a response around 5%/K, our simulations had a precipitation response that was around 2%/K lower than Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and 3%/K lower than the water vapor change. The below Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in precipitation could not be explained by changes in vertical velocities, stability or relative humidity. We suggest that the lower response in precipitation is a result of a shift from the more efficient ice-phase precipitation growth to less effective rain production in a warmer atmosphere. A considerable change in precipitation phase was seen with a mean increase in rainfall of 16%/K which was partly compensated by a reduction in snowfall of around 23%/K. This change may have serious implications for flooding and geohazards.

  9. Verification of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Satellite by the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.

    2017-12-01

    Measurements of global precipitation are critical for monitoring Earth's water resources and hydrological processes, including flooding and snowpack accumulation. As such, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission `Core' satellite detects precipitation ranging from light snow to heavy downpours in a wide range locations including remote mountainous regions. The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) during the 2015-2016 fall-winter season in the mountainous Olympic Peninsula of Washington State provide physical and hydrological validation for GPM precipitation algorithms and insight into the modification of midlatitude storms by passage over mountains. The instrumentation included ground-based dual-polarization Doppler radars on the windward and leeward sides of the Olympic Mountains, surface stations that measured precipitation rates, particle size distributions and fall velocities at various altitudes, research aircraft equipped with cloud microphysics probes, radars, lidar, and passive radiometers, supplemental rawinsondes and dropsondes, and autonomous recording cameras that monitored snowpack accumulation. Results based on dropsize distributions (DSDs) and cross-sections of radar reflectivity over the ocean and windward slopes have revealed important considerations for GPM algorithm development. During periods of great precipitation accumulation and enhancement by the mountains on windward slopes, both warm rain and ice-phase processes are present, implying that it is important for GPM retrievals be sensitive to both types of precipitation mechanisms and to represent accurately the concentration of precipitation at the lowest possible altitudes. OLYMPEX data revealed that a given rain rate could be associated with a variety of DSDs, which presents a challenge for GPM precipitation retrievals in extratropical cyclones passing over mountains. Some of the DSD regimes measured during OLYMPEX stratiform periods have the same characteristics found in prior

  10. Nitrogen uptake in the northeastern Arabian Sea during winter cooling

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, S.; Ramesh, R.; Dwivedi, R.M.; Raman, M.; Sheshshayee, M.S.; DeSouza, W.

    technique are presented. In this relatively underexplored region, productivity is high during winter due to supply of nutrients by convective mixing caused by the cooling of the surface by the northeast monsoon winds. Studies done during different months...

  11. Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

    KAUST Repository

    Chevuturi, A.

    2014-12-19

    This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

  12. Scale analysis of convective clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micha Gryschka

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The size distribution of cumulus clouds due to shallow and deep convection is analyzed using satellite pictures, LES model results and data from the German rain radar network. The size distributions found can be described by simple power laws as has also been proposed for other cloud data in the literature. As the observed precipitation at ground stations is finally determined by cloud numbers in an area and individual sizes and rain rates of single clouds, the cloud size distributions might be used for developing empirical precipitation forecasts or for validating results from cloud resolving models being introduced to routine weather forecasts.

  13. A continuous and prognostic convection scheme based on buoyancy, PCMT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérémy, Jean-François; Piriou, Jean-Marcel

    2016-04-01

    A new and consistent convection scheme (PCMT: Prognostic Condensates Microphysics and Transport), providing a continuous and prognostic treatment of this atmospheric process, is described. The main concept ensuring the consistency of the whole system is the buoyancy, key element of any vertical motion. The buoyancy constitutes the forcing term of the convective vertical velocity, which is then used to define the triggering condition, the mass flux, and the rates of entrainment-detrainment. The buoyancy is also used in its vertically integrated form (CAPE) to determine the closure condition. The continuous treatment of convection, from dry thermals to deep precipitating convection, is achieved with the help of a continuous formulation of the entrainment-detrainment rates (depending on the convective vertical velocity) and of the CAPE relaxation time (depending on the convective over-turning time). The convective tendencies are directly expressed in terms of condensation and transport. Finally, the convective vertical velocity and condensates are fully prognostic, the latter being treated using the same microphysics scheme as for the resolved condensates but considering the convective environment. A Single Column Model (SCM) validation of this scheme is shown, allowing detailed comparisons with observed and explicitly simulated data. Four cases covering the convective spectrum are considered: over ocean, sensitivity to environmental moisture (S. Derbyshire) non precipitating shallow convection to deep precipitating convection, trade wind shallow convection (BOMEX) and strato-cumulus (FIRE), together with an entire continental diurnal cycle of convection (ARM). The emphasis is put on the characteristics of the scheme which enable a continuous treatment of convection. Then, a 3D LAM validation is presented considering an AMMA case with both observations and a CRM simulation using the same initial and lateral conditions as for the parameterized one. Finally, global

  14. Added value of convection-permitting reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, S.; Keller, J. D.; Ohlwein, C.; Hense, A.; Friederichs, P.; Crewell, S.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They are used for validation of meteorological and hydrological models, climate monitoring, and renewable energy applications, amongst others. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. Due to the horizontal resolution used, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. However, convective parameterization is a major source of errors and uncertainties in atmospheric models. Therefore, it is expected that convection permitting reanalysis systems are able to adequately simulate the mechanisms leading to high-impact weather, notably heavy precipitation and winds related to deep moist convection. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2) has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research - Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses a nudging scheme for the assimilation of observational data. In addition, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated through a latent heat nudging scheme. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model parameterization for deep moist convective processes is turned off. As we expect the largest benefit of the convection-permitting system for precipitation, the evaluation focuses on this essential climate variable (ECV). Furthermore, precipitation is crucial for climate monitoring purposes, e.g., in the form of extreme precipitation which is an major cause of severe damages and societal costs in Europe. This study illustrates the added value of the convective-scale reanalysis compared to coarser gridded regional European and global reanalyses.

  15. Winter Wonderlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Mary

    2011-01-01

    Listening to people complain about the hardships of winter and the dreariness of the nearly constant gray sky prompted the author to help her sixth graders recognize and appreciate the beauty that surrounds them for nearly five months of the year in western New York. The author opines that if students could see things more artistically, the winter…

  16. GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison With Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Forest; Ralph, F. Martin; Wilson, Anna M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 90% of the total meridional water vapor flux in midlatitudes, and 25-50% of the annual precipitation in the coastal western United States. In this study, reflectivity profiles from the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR) are used to evaluate precipitation and temperature characteristics of ARs over the western coast of North America and the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Evaluation of GPM-DPR bright-band height using a network of ground-based vertically pointing radars along the West Coast demonstrated exceptional agreement, and comparison with freezing level height from reanalyses over the eastern North Pacific Ocean also consistently agreed, indicating that GPM-DPR can be used to independently validate freezing level in models. However, precipitation comparison with gridded observations across the western United States indicated deficiencies in GPM-DPR's ability to reproduce the spatial distribution of winter precipitation, likely related to sampling frequency. Over the geographically homogeneous oceanic portion of the domain, sampling frequency was not problematic, and significant differences in the frequency and intensity of precipitation between GPM-DPR and reanalyses highlighted biases in both satellite-observed and modeled AR precipitation. Reanalyses precipitation rates below the minimum sensitivity of GPM-DPR accounted for a 20% increase in total precipitation, and 25% of radar-derived precipitation rates were greater than the 99th percentile precipitation rate in reanalyses. Due to differences in the proportions of precipitation in convective, stratiform bright-band, and non-bright-band conditions, AR conditions contributed nearly 10% more to total precipitation in GPM-DPR than reanalyses.

  17. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  18. Convective heater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorogood, Robert M.

    1983-01-01

    A convective heater for heating fluids such as a coal slurry is constructed of a tube circuit arrangement which obtains an optimum temperature distribution to give a relatively constant slurry film temperature. The heater is constructed to divide the heating gas flow into two equal paths and the tube circuit for the slurry is arranged to provide a mixed flow configuration whereby the slurry passes through the two heating gas paths in successive co-current, counter-current and co-current flow relative to the heating gas flow. This arrangement permits the utilization of minimum surface area for a given maximum film temperature of the slurry consistent with the prevention of coke formation.

  19. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model: eight years of experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kaufmann

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The Swiss Model, a hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, has been used at MeteoSwiss for operational forecasting at the meso-beta scale (mesh-size 14 km from 1994 until 2001. The quality of the quantitative precipitation forecasts is evaluated for the eight years of operation. The seasonal precipitation over Switzerland and its dependence on altitude is examined for both model forecasts and observations using the Swiss rain gauge network sampling daily precipitation at over 400 stations for verification. The mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is verified against the automatic surface observation network on the basis of hourly recordings. In winter, there is no diurnal forcing of precipitation and the modelled precipitation agrees with the observed values. In summer, the convection in the model starts too early, overestimates the amount of precipitation and is too short-lived. Skill scores calculated for six-hourly precipitation sums show a constant level of performance over the model life cycle. Dry and wet seasons influence the model performance more than the model changes during its operational period. The comprehensive verification of the model precipitation is complemented by the discussion of a number of heavy rain events investigated during the RAPHAEL project. The sensitivities to a number of model components are illustrated, namely the driving boundary fields, the internal partitioning of parameterised and grid-scale precipitation, the advection scheme and the vertical resolution. While a small impact of the advection scheme had to be expected, the increasing overprediction of rain with increasing vertical resolution in the RAPHAEL case studies was larger than previously thought. The frequent update of the boundary conditions enhances the positioning of the rain in the model. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecast, model verification

  20. Estimating the reproduction quality of precipitation over the north atlantic and influence of the hydrostatic approximation in the WRF-ARW atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrikov, A. V.

    2017-03-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast numerical model (WRF) with the dynamic Advanced Research WRF (ARW) solver was used to simulate the winter (January 2016) and summer (July 2015) atmospheric state over the North Atlantic with a high (15 km) spatial resolution. The quality of precipitation modeling was validated by remote sensing Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) data and atmospheric ERA-Interim reanalysis. Nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic equations for the vertical velocity were additionally used to investigate their influence on the accuracy of the precipitation modeling results. It was shown that the model in this configuration satisfactorily reproduces the precipitation field. No evidence of hydrostatic approximation was revealed (over a simulation domain with a resolution of 15 km, simplified topography, and parameterizations of convection and microphysical processes).

  1. Evidence of mineral dust altering cloud microphysics and precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q.-L. Min

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. For a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

  2. Mechanisms initiating deep convection over complex terrain during COPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Kottmeier

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Precipitating convection in a mountain region of moderate topography is investigated, with particular emphasis on its initiation in response to boundary-layer and mid- and upper-tropospheric forcing mechanisms. The data used in the study are from COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study that took place in southwestern Germany and eastern France in the summer of 2007. It is found that the initiation of precipitating convection can be roughly classified as being due to either: (i surface heating and low-level flow convergence; (ii surface heating and moisture supply overcoming convective inhibition during latent and/or potential instability; or (iii mid-tropospheric dynamical processes due to mesoscale convergence lines and forced mean vertical motion. These phenomena have to be adequately represented in models in order to improve quantitative precipitation forecast. Selected COPS cases are analysed and classified into these initiation categories. Although only a subset of COPS data (mainly radiosondes, surface weather stations, radar and satellite data are used here, it is shown that convective systems are captured in considerable detail by sensor synergy. Convergence lines were observed by Doppler radar in the location where deep convection is triggered several hours later. The results suggest that in many situations, observations of the location and timing of convergence lines will facilitate the nowcasting of convection. Further on, forecasting of the initiation of convection is significantly complicated if advection of potentially convective air masses over changing terrain features plays a major role. The passage of a frontal structure over the Vosges - Rhine valley - Black Forest orography was accompanied by an intermediate suppression of convection over the wide Rhine valley. Further downstream, an intensification of convection was observed over the Black Forest due to differential surface heating, a convergence line

  3. Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection-permitting climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Bullock, Randy; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn

    2017-10-01

    Deep convection is a key process in the climate system and the main source of precipitation in the tropics, subtropics, and mid-latitudes during summer. Furthermore, it is related to high impact weather causing floods, hail, tornadoes, landslides, and other hazards. State-of-the-art climate models have to parameterize deep convection due to their coarse grid spacing. These parameterizations are a major source of uncertainty and long-standing model biases. We present a North American scale convection-permitting climate simulation that is able to explicitly simulate deep convection due to its 4-km grid spacing. We apply a feature-tracking algorithm to detect hourly precipitation from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the model and compare it with radar-based precipitation estimates east of the US Continental Divide. The simulation is able to capture the main characteristics of the observed MCSs such as their size, precipitation rate, propagation speed, and lifetime within observational uncertainties. In particular, the model is able to produce realistically propagating MCSs, which was a long-standing challenge in climate modeling. However, the MCS frequency is significantly underestimated in the central US during late summer. We discuss the origin of this frequency biases and suggest strategies for model improvements.

  4. The influence of mountain meteorology on precipitation chemistry at low and high elevations of the Colorado Front Range, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denning, A. Scott

    1993-01-01

    We explored the seasonal characteristics in wet deposition chemistry for two sites located at different elevations along the east slope of the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park. Seasonally separated precipitation was stratified into highly concentrated (high salt), dilute (low salt), or acid-dominated precipitation groups. These groups and unstratified precipitation data were related to mean easterly or westerly zonal winds to determine direction of local transport. Strong acid anion associations were also determined for the stratified and unstratified precipitation data sets. We found that strong acid anions, acidity, ammonium, and high salt concentrations originate to the east of Rocky Mountain National Park, and are transported via up-valley funneling winds or convective instability from differential heating of the mountains and the plains to the east. These influence the composition of precipitation at Beaver Meadows, the low elevation site, throughout the year, while their effect on precipitation at Loch Vale, the high elevation site, is felt most strongly during the summer. During the winter, Loch Vale precipitation is very dilute, and occurs in conjunction with westerly winds resulting from the southerly location of the jet stream.

  5. Measuring Convective Mass Fluxes Over Tropical Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, David

    2017-04-01

    Deep convection forms the upward branches of all large-scale circulations in the tropics. Understanding what controls the form and intensity of vertical convective mass fluxes is thus key to understanding tropical weather and climate. These mass fluxes and the corresponding conditions supporting them have been measured by recent field programs (TPARC/TCS08, PREDICT, HS3) in tropical disturbances considered to be possible tropical storm precursors. In reality, this encompasses most strong convection in the tropics. The measurements were made with arrays of dropsondes deployed from high altitude. In some cases Doppler radar provided additional measurements. The results are in some ways surprising. Three factors were found to control the mass flux profiles, the strength of total surface heat fluxes, the column-integrated relative humidity, and the low to mid-tropospheric moist convective instability. The first two act as expected, with larger heat fluxes and higher humidity producing more precipitation and stronger lower tropospheric mass fluxes. However, unexpectedly, smaller (but still positive) convective instability produces more precipitation as well as more bottom-heavy convective mass flux profiles. Furthermore, the column humidity and the convective instability are anti-correlated, at least in the presence of strong convection. On spatial scales of a few hundred kilometers, the virtual temperature structure appears to be in dynamic balance with the pattern of potential vorticity. Since potential vorticity typically evolves on longer time scales than convection, the potential vorticity pattern plus the surface heat fluxes then become the immediate controlling factors for average convective properties. All measurements so far have taken place in regions with relatively flat sea surface temperature (SST) distributions. We are currently seeking funding for a measurement program in the tropical east Pacific, a region that exhibits strong SST gradients and

  6. Cumulus convection and the terrestrial water-vapor distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Leo J.

    1988-01-01

    Cumulus convection plays a significant role in determining the structure of the terrestrial water vapor field. Cumulus convection acts directly on the moisture field by condensing and precipitating water vapor and by redistributing water vapor through cumulus induced eddy circulations. The mechanisms by which cumulus convection influences the terrestrial water vapor distribution is outlined. Calculations using a theory due to Kuo is used to illustrate the mechanisms by which cumulus convection works. Understanding of these processes greatly aids the ability of researchers to interpret the seasonal and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor by providing information on the nature of sources and sinks and the global circulation.

  7. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-02-17

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide consise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: Distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; Natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s as well as selected National average prices; Residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; Crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and A 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree days by city.

  8. Winter fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD's I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD's, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city

  9. Convective transfers; Transferts convectifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Accary, G.; Raspo, I.; Bontoux, P. [Aix-Marseille-3 Univ. Paul Cezanne, CNRS, Lab. MSNM-GP UMR 6181, 13 - Marseille (France); Zappoli, B. [Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales (CNES), 31 - Toulouse (France); Polidori, G.; Fohanno, S. [Laboratoire de Thermomecanique, 51 - Reims (France); Hirata, S.C.; Goyeau, B.; Gobin, D. [Paris-6 et Paris-11 Univ., FAST-UMR CNRS 7608, 91 - Orsay (France); Cotta, R.M. [UFRJ/LTTC/PEM/EE/COPPE, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Perrin, L.; Reulet, P.; Micheli, F.; Millan, P. [Office National d' Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 31 - Toulouse (France); Menard, V. [France Telecom R and D, 22 - Lannion (France); Benkhelifa, A.; Penot, F. [Ecole Nationale Superieure de Mecanique et d' Aerotechnique (ENSMA), Lab. d' Etudes Thermiques, UMR CNRS 6608, 86 - Poitiers (France); Ng Wing Tin, M.; Haquet, J.F.; Journeau, C. [CEA Cadarache (DEN/DTN/STRI/LMA), Lab. d' Essais pour la Maitrise des Accidents Graves, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Naffouti, T.; Hammani, M.; Ben Maad, R. [Faculte des Sciences de Tunis, Lab. d' Energetique et des Transferts Thermique et Massique, Dept. de Physique, Tunis (Tunisia); Zinoubi, J. [Institut Preparatoire aux Etudes d' Ingenieurs de Nabeul (Tunisia); Menard, V.; Le Masson, S.; Nortershauser, D. [France Telecom R and D, 22 - Lannion (France); Stitou, A.; Perrin, L.; Millan, P. [ONERA, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2005-07-01

    This session about convective transfers gathers 31 articles dealing with: numerical study of the hydrodynamic stability of a bottom heated supercritical fluid layer; establishment of laminar-turbulent transition criteria of free convection dynamic and thermal boundary layers; heat transfer changes in free convection by mechanical and thermal disturbances; natural convection stability in partially porous horizontal layers; experimental characterization of the dynamic and thermal aspects of a natural convection flow inside a confined space; determination of transitions towards non-stationary natural convection inside a differentially heated inclined cavity; interface temperatures for the convection of fluids with variable viscosity; influence of the height of a vertical cylinder on the flow resulting from a plume-thermosyphon interaction; simultaneous measurement of dynamic and thermal fields by thermo-chromic liquid crystals in natural convection; numerical simulation of turbulent natural convection flows inside a heated room; numerical and experimental study of mixed convection heat transfer inside an axisymmetrical network; analysis of laminar flow instabilities in assisted mixed convection; entropy generation in mixed convection; thermal and mass convection in non-stationary regime inside a ventilated cavity; study of a low Reynolds number mixed convection flow; numerical study of a convective flow inside a rotating annular cavity; study of the dynamical behaviour of a transient mixed convection flow inside a thick vertical duct; internal laminar convection: selection criteria for the identification of natural, mixed or forced regimes; turbulent flow and convection heat transfer inside a channel with corrugated walls; study of the impact of an axisymmetrical jet on a concave wall; modeling of volume irreversibilities of turbulent forced convection; numerical study of forced convection irreversibilities around a network of cylindrical tubes; estimation of the

  10. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  11. National Convective Weather Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCWF is an automatically generated depiction of: (1) current convection and (2) extrapolated signficant current convection. It is a supplement to, but does NOT...

  12. Mercury Wet Scavenging and Deposition Differences by Precipitation Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaulfus, Aaron S; Nair, Udaysankar; Holmes, Christopher D; Landing, William M

    2017-03-07

    We analyze the effect of precipitation type on mercury wet deposition using a new database of individual rain events spanning the contiguous United States. Measurements from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) containing single rainfall events were identified and classified into six precipitation types. Mercury concentrations in surface precipitation follow a power law of precipitation depth that is modulated by precipitation system morphology. After controlling for precipitation depth, the highest mercury deposition occurs in supercell thunderstorms, with decreasing deposition in disorganized thunderstorms, quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS), extratropical cyclones, light rain, and land-falling tropical cyclones. Convective morphologies (supercells, disorganized, and QLCS) enhance wet deposition by a factor of at least 1.6 relative to nonconvective morphologies. Mercury wet deposition also varies by geographic region and season. After controlling for other factors, we find that mercury wet deposition is greater over high-elevation sites, seasonally during summer, and in convective precipitation.

  13. Radar-Derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Precipitation Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for improving radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation is proposed. Tropical vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPRs are first determined from multiple VPRs. Upon identifying a tropical VPR, the event can be further classified as either tropical-stratiform or tropical-convective rainfall by a fuzzy logic (FL algorithm. Based on the precipitation-type fields, the reflectivity values are converted into rainfall rate using a Z-R relationship. In order to evaluate the performance of this rainfall classification scheme, three experiments were conducted using three months of data and two study cases. In Experiment I, the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship was applied. In Experiment II, the precipitation regime was separated into convective and stratiform rainfall using the FL algorithm, and corresponding Z-R relationships were used. In Experiment III, the precipitation regime was separated into convective, stratiform, and tropical rainfall, and the corresponding Z-R relationships were applied. The results show that the rainfall rates obtained from all three experiments match closely with the gauge observations, although Experiment II could solve the underestimation, when compared to Experiment I. Experiment III significantly reduced this underestimation and generated the most accurate radar estimates of rain rate among the three experiments.

  14. WINTER SAECULUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money.

  15. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safety During Fire Cleanup Wildfires PSAs Related Links Winter Weather About Winter Weather Before a Storm Prepare Your Home Prepare Your Car Winter Weather Checklists During a Storm Indoor Safety During ...

  16. The oceanography of winter leads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morison, J. H.; McPhee, M. G.; Curtin, T. B.; Paulson, C. A.

    1992-07-01

    Leads in pack ice have long been considered important to the thermodynamics of the polar regions. A winter lead affects the ocean around it because it is a density source. As the surface freezes, salt is rejected and forms more dense water which sinks under the lead. This sets up a circulation with freshwater flowing in from the sides near the surface and dense water flowing away from the lead at the base of the mixed layer. If the mixed layer is fully turbulent, this pattern may not occur; rather, the salt rejected at the surface may simply mix into the surface boundary layer. In either event the instability produced at the surface of leads is the primary source of unstable buoyancy flux and, as such, exerts a strong influence on the mixed layer. Here as many as possible of the disparate and almost anecdotal observations of lead oceanography are assembled and combined with theoretical arguments to predict the form and scale of oceanographic disturbances caused by winter leads. The experimental data suggest the velocity disturbances associated with lead convection are about 1-5 cm s-1. These appear as jets near the surface and the base of the mixed layer when ice velocities across the lead are less than about 5 cm s-1. The salinity disturbances are about 0.01 to 0.05 psu. Scaling arguments suggest that the geostrophic currents set up by the lead density disturbances are also of the order of 1-5 cm s-1. The disturbances are most obvious when freezing is rapid and ice velocity is low because the salinity and velocity disturbances in the upper ocean are not smeared out by turbulence. In this vein, lead convection may be characterized at one extreme as free convection in which the density disturbance forces the circulation. At the other extreme, lead convection may be characterized as forced convection in which the density disturbance is mixed rapidly by boundary layer turbulence. The lead number Lo, which is the ratio of the pressure term to the turbulence term in the

  17. Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) Experiment Science Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, D [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Parsons, D [NCAR; Geerts, B [Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming

    2015-03-01

    The Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment is a large field campaign that is being supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) with contributions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Atmospheric and Space Administration (NASA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The overarching goal of the PECAN experiment is to improve the understanding and simulation of the processes that initiate and maintain convection and convective precipitation at night over the central portion of the Great Plains region of the United States (Parsons et al. 2013). These goals are important because (1) a large fraction of the yearly precipitation in the Great Plains comes from nocturnal convection, (2) nocturnal convection in the Great Plains is most often decoupled from the ground and, thus, is forced by other phenomena aloft (e.g., propagating bores, frontal boundaries, low-level jets [LLJ], etc.), (3) there is a relative lack of understanding how these disturbances initiate and maintain nocturnal convection, and (4) this lack of understanding greatly hampers the ability of numerical weather and climate models to simulate nocturnal convection well. This leads to significant uncertainties in predicting the onset, location, frequency, and intensity of convective cloud systems and associated weather hazards over the Great Plains.

  18. Importance of the variability of hydrographic preconditioning for deep convection in the Gulf of Lion, NW Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Grignon

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the variability of hydrographic preconditioning defined as the heat and salt contents in the Ligurian Sea before convection. The stratification is found to reach a maximum in the intermediate layer in December, whose causes and consequences for the interannual variability of convection are investigated. Further study of the interannual variability and correlation tests between the properties of the deep water formed and the winter surface fluxes support the description of convection as a process that transfers the heat and salt contents from the top and intermediate layers to the deep layer. A proxy for the rate of transfer is given by the final convective mixed layer depth, that is shown to depend equally on the surface fluxes and on the preconditioning. In particular, it is found that deep convection in winter 2004–2005 would have happened even with normal winter conditions, due to low pre-winter stratification.

  19. Convective initiation in the vicinity of the subtropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, K. L.; Houze, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme convection tends to form in the vicinity of mountain ranges, and the Andes in subtropical South America help spawn some of the most intense convection in the world. An investigation of the most intense storms for 11 years of TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) data shows a tendency for squall lines to initiate and develop in this region with the canonical leading convective line/trailing stratiform structure. The synoptic environment and structures of the extreme convection and MCSs in subtropical South America are similar to those found in other regions of the world, especially the United States. In subtropical South America, however, the topographical influence on the convective initiation and maintenance of the MCSs is unique. A capping inversion in the lee of the Andes is important in preventing premature triggering. The Andes and other mountainous terrain of Argentina focus deep convective initiation in a narrow region. Subsequent to initiation, the convection often evolves into propagating mesoscale convective systems similar to those seen over the Great Plains of the U. S. and produces damaging tornadoes, hail, and floods across a wide agricultural region. Numerical simulations conducted with the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model extend the observational analysis and provide an objective evaluation of storm initiation, terrain effects, and development mechanisms. The simulated mesoscale systems closely resemble the storm structures seen by the TRMM Precipitation Radar as well as the overall shape and character of the storms shown in GOES satellite data. A sensitivity experiment with different configurations of topography, including both decreasing and increasing the height of the Andes Mountains, provides insight into the significant influence of orography in focusing convective initiation in this region. Lee cyclogenesis and a strong low-level jet are modulated by the height of the Andes Mountains and directly affect the character

  20. High-Frequency Observations of Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen Reveal Under-Ice Convection in a Large Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bernard; Young, Joelle; Brown, Laura; Wells, Mathew

    2017-12-01

    Detailed observations of thermal structure over an entire winter in a large lake reveal the presence of large (10-20 m) overturns under the ice, driven by diurnal solar heating. Convection can occur in the early winter, but the most vigorous convection occurred near the end of winter. Both periods are when our lake ice model suggest thinner ice that would have been transparent. This under-ice convection led to a deepening of the mixed layer over time, consistent with previous short-term studies. During periods of vigorous convection under the ice at the end of winter, the dissolved oxygen had become supersaturated from the surface to 23 m below the surface, suggesting abundant algal growth. Analysis of our high-frequency observations over the entire winter of 2015 using the Thorpe-scale method quantified the scale of mixing. Furthermore, it revealed that changes in oxygen concentrations are closely related to the intensity of mixing.

  1. Convective aggregation in realistic convective-scale simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Christopher E.

    2017-06-01

    To investigate the real-world relevance of idealized-model convective self-aggregation, five 15 day cases of real organized convection in the tropics are simulated. These include multiple simulations of each case to test sensitivities of the convective organization and mean states to interactive radiation, interactive surface fluxes, and evaporation of rain. These simulations are compared to self-aggregation seen in the same model configured to run in idealized radiative-convective equilibrium. Analysis of the budget of the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy shows that control runs have significant positive contributions to organization from radiation and negative contributions from surface fluxes and transport, similar to idealized runs once they become aggregated. Despite identical lateral boundary conditions for all experiments in each case, systematic differences in mean column water vapor (CWV), CWV distribution shape, and CWV autocorrelation length scale are found between the different sensitivity runs, particularly for those without interactive radiation, showing that there are at least some similarities in sensitivities to these feedbacks in both idealized and realistic simulations (although the organization of precipitation shows less sensitivity to interactive radiation). The magnitudes and signs of these systematic differences are consistent with a rough equilibrium between (1) equalization due to advection from the lateral boundaries and (2) disaggregation due to the absence of interactive radiation, implying disaggregation rates comparable to those in idealized runs with aggregated initial conditions and noninteractive radiation. This points to a plausible similarity in the way that radiation feedbacks maintain aggregated convection in both idealized simulations and the real world.Plain Language SummaryUnderstanding the processes that lead to the organization of tropical rainstorms is an important challenge for weather

  2. Deuterium distribution regularities in precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feurdean, V.; Feurdean, Lucia

    1999-01-01

    Deuterium measurements from precipitations were initiated by dr. L. Blaga in Natural Isotopic Abundances Department of ITIM since 1971. Systematic measurements of deuterium content and quantities of precipitations were carried on after 1975. Deuterium measurements from precipitations evidenced the succession of minimum values corresponding to cold seasons and maximum values corresponding to warm seasons. Other minimum and maximum values having lower amplitude than those corresponding to seasons are recorded for each season, too. As a rule, minimum values recorded during the summer months are the consequence of the penetration of cold air masses and maximum values recorded during the winter months are the consequence of penetration of the warm air masses. For the northwestern part of Romania including the Cluj-Napoca area, the winter precipitations come prevalently from the northwestern direction (from Greenland and North of Atlantic Ocean). The maximum values of deuterium content recorded during winter months are due to the displacements of warm and humid air masses from southwestern Europe (Mediterranean Sea). During long-time, (over 22 years) the monthly mean values of deuterium concentrations from precipitations for each year show amplitude variation of the minimum and maximum values. These maximum and minimum values, respectively, are oscillatory with a variable period of a few years (from 2 to 6 years). The variation of the oscillation period suggests at least two causes having different and fixed periodicity. The determinations of deuterium concentration from precipitations reveal the existence of natural isotopic label process for all waters natural. This phenomenon is adequate for the use of deuterium as a natural tracer in hydrologic studies. The isotopic hydrology adds new information to the hydrologic data base. The correlation between isotopic data base for precipitations and meteorological information will provide a new method for long term weather

  3. Prevalence of hematozoa infections among breeding and wintering Rusty Blackbirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. Barnard; Claudia Mettke-Hofmann; Steven M. Matsuoka

    2010-01-01

    The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) has declined precipitously over the past several decades,and stressors on both the breeding and wintering grounds are suspected causes. Over 3 years, we collected blood samples from breeding birds in Alaska and Maine and from wintering birds in Mississippi and Arkansas to determine the prevalence of hematozoan infections at...

  4. A hybrid convection scheme for use in non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Kuell

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The correct representation of convection in numerical weather prediction (NWP models is essential for quantitative precipitation forecasts. Due to its small horizontal scale convection usually has to be parameterized, e.g. by mass flux convection schemes. Classical schemes originally developed for use in coarse grid NWP models assume zero net convective mass flux, because the whole circulation of a convective cell is confined to the local grid column and all convective mass fluxes cancel out. However, in contemporary NWP models with grid sizes of a few kilometers this assumption becomes questionable, because here convection is partially resolved on the grid. To overcome this conceptual problem we propose a hybrid mass flux convection scheme (HYMACS in which only the convective updrafts and downdrafts are parameterized. The generation of the larger scale environmental subsidence, which may cover several grid columns, is transferred to the grid scale equations. This means that the convection scheme now has to generate a net convective mass flux exerting a direct dynamical forcing to the grid scale model via pressure gradient forces. The hybrid convection scheme implemented into the COSMO model of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD is tested in an idealized simulation of a sea breeze circulation initiating convection in a realistic manner. The results are compared with analogous simulations with the classical Tiedtke and Kain-Fritsch convection schemes.

  5. Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, MP; Petersen, WA; Del Genio, AD; Giangrande, SE; Heymsfield, A; Heymsfield, G; Hou, AY; Kollias, P; Orr, B; Rutledge, SA; Schwaller, MR; Zipser, E

    2010-04-01

    Convective processes play a critical role in the Earth’s energy balance through the redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere and subsequent impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Global observation and accurate representation of these processes in numerical models is vital to improving our current understanding and future simulations of Earth’s climate system. Despite improvements in computing power, current operational weather and global climate models are unable to resolve the natural temporal and spatial scales that are associated with convective and stratiform precipitation processes; therefore, they must turn to parameterization schemes to represent these processes. In turn, the physical basis for these parameterization schemes needs to be evaluated for general application under a variety of atmospheric conditions. Analogously, space-based remote sensing algorithms designed to retrieve related cloud and precipitation information for use in hydrological, climate, and numerical weather prediction applications often rely on physical “parameterizations” that reliably translate indirectly related instrument measurements to the physical quantity of interest (e.g., precipitation rate). Importantly, both spaceborne retrieval algorithms and model convective parameterization schemes traditionally rely on field campaign data sets as a basis for evaluating and improving the physics of their respective approaches. The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) will take place in central Oklahoma during the April–May 2011 period. The experiment is a collaborative effort between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Ground Validation (GV) program. The field campaign leverages the unprecedented observing infrastructure currently available in the central United States

  6. Rain cell-based identification of the vertical profile of reflectivity as observed by weather radar and its use for precipitation uncertainty estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-04-01

    The wide scale implementation of weather radar systems over the last couple of decades has increased our understanding concerning spatio-temporal precipitation dynamics. However, the quantitative estimation of precipitation by these devices is affected by many sources of error. A very dominant source of error results from vertical variations in the hydrometeor size distribution known as the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). Since the height of the measurement as well as the beam volume increases with distance from the radar, for stratiform precipitation this results in a serious underestimation (overestimation) of the surface reflectivity while sampling within the snow (bright band) region. This research presents a precipitation cell-based implementation to correct volumetric weather radar measurements for VPR effects. Using the properties of a flipping carpenter square, a contour-based identification technique was developed, which is able to identify and track precipitation cells in real time, distinguishing between convective, stratiform and undefined precipitation. For the latter two types of systems, for each individual cell, a physically plausible vertical profile of reflectivity is estimated using a Monte Carlo optimization method. Since it can be expected that the VPR will vary within a given precipitation cell, a method was developed to take the uncertainty of the VPR estimate into account. As a result, we are able to estimate the amount of precipitation uncertainty as observed by weather radar due to VPR for a given precipitation type and storm cell. We demonstrate the possibilities of this technique for a number of winter precipitation systems observed within the Belgian Ardennes. For these systems, in general, the precipitation uncertainty estimate due to vertical reflectivity profile variations varies between 10-40%.

  7. Toward a Unified Representation of Atmospheric Convection in Variable-Resolution Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walko, Robert [Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States)

    2016-11-07

    The purpose of this project was to improve the representation of convection in atmospheric weather and climate models that employ computational grids with spatially-variable resolution. Specifically, our work targeted models whose grids are fine enough over selected regions that convection is resolved explicitly, while over other regions the grid is coarser and convection is represented as a subgrid-scale process. The working criterion for a successful scheme for representing convection over this range of grid resolution was that identical convective environments must produce very similar convective responses (i.e., the same precipitation amount, rate, and timing, and the same modification of the atmospheric profile) regardless of grid scale. The need for such a convective scheme has increased in recent years as more global weather and climate models have adopted variable resolution meshes that are often extended into the range of resolving convection in selected locations.

  8. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1995-01-13

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s, as well as selected National average prices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 day, 30-Day, and 90-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

  9. TCA precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation of proteins is commonly used to concentrate protein samples or remove contaminants, including salts and detergents, prior to downstream applications such as SDS-PAGE or 2D-gels. TCA precipitation denatures the protein, so it should not be used if the protein must remain in its folded state (e.g., if you want to measure a biochemical activity of the protein). © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Characteristics of Extreme Summer Convection over equatorial America and Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuluaga, M. D.; Houze, R.

    2013-12-01

    Fourteen years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) version 7 data for June-August show the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme convection over equatorial regions of the American and African continents. We identify three types of extreme systems: storms with deep convective cores (contiguous convective 40 dBZ echoes extending ≥10 km in height), storms with wide convective cores (contiguous convective 40 dBZ echoes with areas >1,000 km2) and storms with broad stratiform regions (stratiform echo >50,000 km2). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis is used to describe the environmental conditions around these forms of extreme convection. Storms with deep convective cores occur mainly over land: in the equatorial Americas, maximum occurrence is in western Mexico, Northern Colombia and Venezuela; in Africa, the region of maximum occurrence is a broad zone enclosing the central and west Sudanian Savanna, south of the Sahel region. Storms with wide convective radar echoes occur in these same general locations. In the American sector, storms with broad stratiform precipitation regions (typifying robust mesoscale convective systems) occur mainly over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the Colombia-Panama bight. In the African sector, storms with broad stratiform precipitation areas occur primarily over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean near the coast of West Africa. ECMWF reanalyses show how the regions of extreme deep convection associated with both continents are located mainly in regions affected by diurnal heating and influenced by atmospheric jets in regions with strong humidity gradients. Composite analysis of the synoptic conditions leading to the three forms of extreme convection provides insights into the forcing mechanisms in which these systems occur. These analyses show how the monsoonal flow directed towards the Andes slopes is mainly what concentrates the occurrence of extreme

  11. Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, K. L.; Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

    2017-11-01

    Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

  12. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health ... Although there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect ...

  13. Winter maintenance performance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

  14. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  15. Solar Surface Convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nordlund Åke

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available We review the properties of solar convection that are directly observable at the solar surface, and discuss the relevant underlying physics, concentrating mostly on a range of depths from the temperature minimum down to about 20 Mm below the visible solar surface.The properties of convection at the main energy carrying (granular scales are tightly constrained by observations, in particular by the detailed shapes of photospheric spectral lines and the topology (time- and length-scales, flow velocities, etc. of the up- and downflows. Current supercomputer models match these constraints very closely, which lends credence to the models, and allows robust conclusions to be drawn from analysis of the model properties.At larger scales the properties of the convective velocity field at the solar surface are strongly influenced by constraints from mass conservation, with amplitudes of larger scale horizontal motions decreasing roughly in inverse proportion to the scale of the motion. To a large extent, the apparent presence of distinct (meso- and supergranulation scales is a result of the folding of this spectrum with the effective “filters” corresponding to various observational techniques. Convective motions on successively larger scales advect patterns created by convection on smaller scales; this includes patterns of magnetic field, which thus have an approximately self-similar structure at scales larger than granulation.Radiative-hydrodynamical simulations of solar surface convection can be used as 2D/3D time-dependent models of the solar atmosphere to predict the emergent spectrum. In general, the resulting detailed spectral line profiles agree spectacularly well with observations without invoking any micro- and macroturbulence parameters due to the presence of convective velocities and atmosphere inhomogeneities. One of the most noteworthy results has been a significant reduction in recent years in the derived solar C, N, and O abundances with

  16. The influence of the sea surface temperature on the nocturnal offshore line of precipitation near Mediterranean coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazon, Jordi; Pino, David

    2013-04-01

    Drainage winds lead offshore the cold inland air, which might form a coastal front when interacting with the warm and wet air over the Mediterranean. This air may lift over this cold drained air mass, and convective clouds may appear if the air reaches the Level of Free Convection (LFC). Nocturnal offshore lines and cells of precipitation near the coastline caused by the convergence between drainage winds and a synoptic flow have been well studied in the tropical areas (e.g. Yu et al., 2004; Frye, 2001; Oshawa et al., 2001; Mapes et al., 2003). In the Mediterranean basin, despite some works studied this phenomenon (Newman, 1951; Greich et al., 2004; Callado et al., 2002; Mazón and Pino, 2009 and 2012a, b) there is still some lack of understanding about the main mechanisms driving the formation of the coastal fronts. By using observations and the version 3.3 of the WRF mesoscale model we analyze the role of the sea surface temperature in these lines and cells of precipitation. Several numerical experiments varying SST according the simulation obtained in Somot et al. (2008) have been performed, accordingly the Mediterranean region and season. Three events have been selected in the west, middle and east of the Mediterranean basin at different seasons: late winter (minimum SST) and early autumn (maximum SST). The numerical experiment done in early autumn shows that the increasing the SST enhances the drainage wind. However, this relative cold wind warm fast over the Mediterranean Sea. The numerical experiment shows an increase of the intensity, the accumulated precipitation and the number of the precipitation cells. However, this precipitation areas use to be located more offshore the coastline.

  17. Seasonal effects in the ionosphere-thermosphere response to the precipitation and field-aligned current variations in the cusp region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Namgaladze

    Full Text Available The seasonal effects in the thermosphere and ionosphere responses to the precipitating electron flux and field-aligned current variations, of the order of an hour in duration, in the summer and winter cusp regions have been investigated using the global numerical model of the Earth's upper atmosphere. Two variants of the calculations have been performed both for the IMF By < 0. In the first variant, the model input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken as geomagnetically symmetric and equal to those used earlier in the calculations for the equinoctial conditions. It has been found that both ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances are more intensive in the winter cusp region due to the lower conductivity of the winter polar cap ionosphere and correspondingly larger electric field variations leading to the larger Joule heating effects in the ion and neutral gas temperature, ion drag effects in the thermospheric winds and ion drift effects in the F2-region electron concentration. In the second variant, the calculations have been performed for the events of 28–29 January, 1992 when precipitations were weaker but the magnetospheric convection was stronger than in the first variant. Geomagnetically asymmetric input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken from the patterns derived by combining data obtained from the satellite, radar and ground magnetometer observations for these events. Calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection and thermospheric circulation have been compared with observations and it has been established that calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection for both winter and summer hemispheres are in a good agreement with the observations. Calculated patterns of the thermospheric circulation are in a good agreement with the average circulation for the Southern (summer Hemisphere obtained

  18. Experimental study of diffuse auroral precipitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouaia, K.

    1983-01-01

    First chapter is devoted to low energy electron precipitation in the evening sector of the auroral magnetosphere, during quiet and disturbed magnetic periods. Four subjects are studied in detail: the latitude distribution of the varied auroral forms and their relations to external magnetosphere; the time coefficients related to precipitations, the form and the dynamic of the diffuse precipitation equatorial frontier; the precipitation effect on the ionosphere concentration. The last part of the chapter shows that the plasma convection in the magnetosphere, associated to wave-particle interactions near the equatorial accounts for the principal characteristics of the evening sector diffuse electronic precipitations. The second chapter deals with subauroral precipitations of low energy ions, after the magnetospheric substorms, in the high latitude regions of the morning sector [fr

  19. Observing Convective Aggregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Christopher E.; Wing, Allison A.; Bony, Sandrine; Muller, Caroline; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.; Turner, David D.; Zuidema, Paquita

    2017-11-01

    Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.

  20. Magneto-convection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Robert F

    2012-07-13

    Convection is the transport of energy by bulk mass motions. Magnetic fields alter convection via the Lorentz force, while convection moves the fields via the curl(v×B) term in the induction equation. Recent ground-based and satellite telescopes have increased our knowledge of the solar magnetic fields on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Magneto-convection modelling has also greatly improved recently as computers become more powerful. Three-dimensional simulations with radiative transfer and non-ideal equations of state are being performed. Flux emergence from the convection zone through the visible surface (and into the chromosphere and corona) has been modelled. Local, convectively driven dynamo action has been studied. The alteration in the appearance of granules and the formation of pores and sunspots has been investigated. Magneto-convection calculations have improved our ability to interpret solar observations, especially the inversion of Stokes spectra to obtain the magnetic field and the use of helioseismology to determine the subsurface structure of the Sun.

  1. Precipitating clouds observed by 1.3-GHz boundary layer radars in equatorial Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Renggono

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Temporal variations of precipitating clouds in equatorial Indonesia have been studied based on observations with 1357.5 MHz boundary layer radars at Serpong (6.4° S, 106.7° E near Jakarta and Bukittinggi (0.2° S, 100.3° E in West Sumatera. We have classified precipitating clouds into four types: stratiform, mixed stratiform-convective, deep convective, and shallow convective clouds, using the Williams et al. (1995 method. Diurnal variations of the occurrence of precipitating clouds at Serpong and Bukittinggi have showed the same characteristics, namely, that the precipitating clouds primarily occur in the afternoon and the peak of the stratiform cloud comes after the peak of the deep convective cloud. The time delay between the peaks of stratiform and deep convective clouds corresponds to the life cycle of the mesoscale convective system. The precipitating clouds which occur in the early morning at Serpong are dominated by stratiform cloud. Concerning seasonal variations of the precipitating clouds, we have found that the occurrence of the stratiform cloud is most frequent in the rainy season, while the occurrence of the deep convective cloud is predominant in the dry season.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (convective processes; precipitation; tropical meteorology

  2. Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.

    1989-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported

  3. The First Results of Monitoring the Formation and Destruction of the Ice Cover in Winter 2014–2015 on Ilmen Lake according to the Measurements of Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaev, V. Yu.; Panfilova, M. A.; Titchenko, Yu. A.; Meshkov, E. M.; Balandina, G. N.; Andreeva, Z. V.

    2017-12-01

    The launch of the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) opens up new opportunities for studying and monitoring the land and inland waters. It is the first time radar with a swath (±65°) covering regions with cold climate where waters are covered with ice and land with snow for prolonged periods of time has been used. It is also the first time that the remote sensing is carried out at small incidence angles (less than 19°) at two frequencies (13.6 and 35.5 GHz). The high spatial resolution (4-5 km) significantly increases the number of objects that can be studied using the new radar. Ilmen Lake is chosen as the first test object for the development of complex programs for processing and analyzing data obtained by the DPR. The problem of diagnostics of ice-cover formation and destruction according to DPR data has been considered. It is shown that the dependence of the radar backscatter cross section on the incidence angle for autumn ice is different from that of spring ice, and can be used for classification. A comparison with scattering on the water surface has shown that, at incidence angles exceeding 10°, it is possible to discern all three types of reflecting surfaces: open water, autumn ice, and spring ice, under the condition of making repeated measurements to avoid possible ambiguity caused by wind.

  4. Transition to finger convection in double-diffusive convection

    OpenAIRE

    Kellner, M.; Tilgner, A.

    2014-01-01

    Finger convection is observed experimentally in an electrodeposition cell in which a destabilizing gradient of copper ions is maintained against a stabilizing temperature gradient. This double-diffusive system shows finger convection even if the total density stratification is unstable. Finger convection is replaced by an ordinary convection roll if convection is fast enough to prevent sufficient heat diffusion between neighboring fingers, or if the thermal buoyancy force is less than 1/30 of...

  5. Analyzing coastal precipitation using TRMM observations

    OpenAIRE

    R. H. Heiblum; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2011-01-01

    The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds, and surface friction increase in transition from sea to land can create persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

    Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the winter the Mediterranean sea is usually warmer than t...

  6. Improving the realism of gravity waves generated by convection in numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Claudia Christine

    Small-scale gravity waves (GWs) with horizontal wavelengths of tens up to several hundred kilometers have demonstrated importance for driving the general circulation of the atmosphere, which affects many climate processes. GWs that propagate vertically from the troposphere into the middle atmosphere eventually dissipate and deposit momentum to the mean flow. Through this process they influence the timing of the transition in springtime from winter westerlies to summer easterlies in the stratosphere. They also play an important role in driving the mean-meridional transport circulation, the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and in the tropics help drive the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the Semi-Annual Oscillation. GWs with scales on the order of the size of a model grid box or smaller remain unresolved in Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and therefore need to be parameterized. GWs are generated by a variety of sources including orography, convection, and geostrophic adjustment in regions of baroclinic instability. We focus here in particular on convectively-generated GWs, which are prevalent in the tropics and summer mid-latitudes. Their parameterizations in climate models range in complexity from simple assumptions of uniform sources to more complex methods that relate the spectrum of GWs to properties of convection in the climate model. The parameter settings that must be chosen to apply these GW parameterizations are poorly constrained by observations, so they are instead based largely on cloud-resolving model results. Cloud-resolving model studies themselves use parameterized physics for the microphysics of precipitation particle formation. We first explore the sensitivity of the waves generated in cloud-resolving models to these physics parameterizations and show that knowledge of large-scale storm conditions is sufficient to predict the large-area and time-average spectrum of GW momentum flux above storms, irrespective of the convective details that coarse

  7. Convective heat transfer

    CERN Document Server

    Kakac, Sadik; Pramuanjaroenkij, Anchasa

    2014-01-01

    Intended for readers who have taken a basic heat transfer course and have a basic knowledge of thermodynamics, heat transfer, fluid mechanics, and differential equations, Convective Heat Transfer, Third Edition provides an overview of phenomenological convective heat transfer. This book combines applications of engineering with the basic concepts of convection. It offers a clear and balanced presentation of essential topics using both traditional and numerical methods. The text addresses emerging science and technology matters, and highlights biomedical applications and energy technologies. What’s New in the Third Edition: Includes updated chapters and two new chapters on heat transfer in microchannels and heat transfer with nanofluids Expands problem sets and introduces new correlations and solved examples Provides more coverage of numerical/computer methods The third edition details the new research areas of heat transfer in microchannels and the enhancement of convective heat transfer with nanofluids....

  8. Characterizing the degree of convective clustering using radar reflectivity and its application to evaluating model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, W. Y.; Kim, D.; Rowe, A.; Park, S.

    2017-12-01

    Despite the impact of mesoscale convective organization on the properties of convection (e.g., mixing between updrafts and environment), parameterizing the degree of convective organization has only recently been attempted in cumulus parameterization schemes (e.g., Unified Convection Scheme UNICON). Additionally, challenges remain in determining the degree of convective organization from observations and in comparing directly with the organization metrics in model simulations. This study addresses the need to objectively quantify the degree of mesoscale convective organization using high quality S-PolKa radar data from the DYNAMO field campaign. One of the most noticeable aspects of mesoscale convective organization in radar data is the degree of convective clustering, which can be characterized by the number and size distribution of convective echoes and the distance between them. We propose a method of defining contiguous convective echoes (CCEs) using precipitating convective echoes identified by a rain type classification algorithm. Two classification algorithms, Steiner et al. (1995) and Powell et al. (2016), are tested and evaluated against high-resolution WRF simulations to determine which method better represents the degree of convective clustering. Our results suggest that the CCEs based on Powell et al.'s algorithm better represent the dynamical properties of the convective updrafts and thus provide the basis of a metric for convective organization. Furthermore, through a comparison with the observational data, the WRF simulations driven by the DYNAMO large-scale forcing, similarly applied to UNICON Single Column Model simulations, will allow us to evaluate the ability of both WRF and UNICON to simulate convective clustering. This evaluation is based on the physical processes that are explicitly represented in WRF and UNICON, including the mechanisms leading to convective clustering, and the feedback to the convective properties.

  9. Evidence on improvements of the GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar upon the TRMM precipitation radar in global precipitation rate estimation, type classification and vertical profiling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Gao, J.; Long, D.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Spaceborne precipitation radars are powerful tools for obtaining more accurate precipitation estimates than passive microwave and infrared information-based precipitation estimates. Different rain types (i.e., stratiform and convective precipitation) are characterized by different mechanisms of precipitation growth and different vertical profiles of radar reflectivity. Correct identification of precipitation types is therefore essential in radar precipitation retrieval. This study focuses on the first spaceborne Ku/Ka dual frequency radar (GPM DPR) and the Ku-band precipitation radar (TRMM PR). Both inner (the central 25 beams) and outer (1-12 beams and 38-49 beams) swath data of PR and DPR Level 2 products at the global scale are matched during their overlapping periods to investigate the improvements of DPR concerning precipitation amount estimation and type classification over PR. Results show that PR and DPR are highly consistent in global precipitation distribution, although DPR corresponds poorly with PR at the coincident events obtained in the inner swath than in outer swath. DPR largely improves the detectability of precipitation events, particularly for light precipitation. Occurrences of total precipitation and light precipitation (rain rates < 1 mm/h) detected by DPR are 1.7 and 2.5 times more than those of PR in the whole swath. For type classification, DPR's dual frequency (Ka/Ku) and single frequency (Ku) methods perform similarly. DPR improves precipitation type classification remarkably, reducing the misclassification of clouds and noise as precipitation type "other" from 10% of PR to 0.5%. Overall, DPR exhibits the same type division for 83% (71%) of stratiform (convective) precipitation events recognized by PR. For the freezing level height and bright band height, both radars correspond with each other very well, contributing to the consistency in stratiform precipitation classification. In addition, both freezing level and bright band heights

  10. Do high-resolution convection-permitting experiments on Europe need to be driven by high resolution global runs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthou, Segolene; Chan, Steven; Kendon, Elizabeth; Roberts, Malcolm; Lee, Robert; Vanniere, Benoit

    2017-04-01

    Challenges of getting appropriate climate-change scenarios over Europe both come from having a good representation of the synoptic systems reaching Europe and having a good-enough representation of local and orographic processes in Europe. Therefore we perform both the evaluation of the driving global model and its dynamical downscaling with a 2.2km regional model on the present day period, in the perspective of using this configuration in a future climate scenario. 20-year long atmosphere-only simulations with the Unified Model of the Met Office were run at different global resolutions (130km, 60km and 25km) and the highest resolution was chosen to give the boundaries of a European-wide convection permitting simulation with a 2.2km resolution. The synoptic situation of the different global resolutions are comparable in terms of latitudinal distribution of the jets and weather regimes but there is consistent improvement in the frequency of storms reaching Europe at 25km resolution. High resolution global runs therefore mainly show added value in the high-frequency synoptic drivers. Compared to high resolution precipitation datasets, the 25km resolution is showing good representation of winter precipitation distribution, although with too many days of moderate precipitation in Western Europe. It shows a dry bias in summer, consistent with a mean jet too north.

  11. Convective-diffusive transport in protein crystal growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, H.; Rosenberger, F.; Alexander, J. I. D.; Nadarajah, A.

    1995-05-01

    Particular interest in the role of convection in protein crystallization has arisen since some protein single crystals of improved structural quality have been obtained under reduced gravity conditions. We have numerically modeled the time-dependent diffusive-convective transport in an isothermal protein crystal growth system at standard and zero gravity (1 g and 0 g). In the 2D model used, a rectangular crystal of fixed dimensions 400 μm × 600 μm is positioned at the bottom of a 1 mm high and 6 mm wide growth cell. The aqueous solution contains protein and precipitant. For the dependence of the crystal growth rate on interfacial supersaturation, experimental data for lysozyme are used. The repartitioning of water and precipitant at the growing interface is based on experimental segregation data for lysozyme: NaCl, and on complete rejection for a fictitious system in which lysozyme and precipitant have the same diffusivity. The results show that even in the small cell employed, protein concentration nonuniformities and gravity-driven solutal convection can be significant. The calculated convection velocities are of the same order of magnitude as those found in earlier experiments. As expected, convective transport enhances the growth rates. However, even when diffusion dominates mass transport, i.e. at 0 g, lysozyme crystal growth remains kinetically limited. Irrespective of the diffusivity of the precipitant, due to the low growth rates, the precipitant distribution in the solution remains rather uniform even at 0 g, unless strong coupling between precipitant and protein fluxes is assumed. The salt distribution in the crystal is predicted to be non-uniform at both 1 g and 0 g, as a consequence of protein depletion in the solution.

  12. On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellander-Gorgas, Theresa; Wang, Yong; Meier, Florian; Weidle, Florian; Wittmann, Christoph; Kann, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale - Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational - Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convection-permitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.

  13. Is Convection Sensitive to Model Vertical Resolution and Why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, S.; Lin, W.; Zhang, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Model sensitivity to horizontal resolutions has been studied extensively, whereas model sensitivity to vertical resolution is much less explored. In this study, we use the US Department of Energy (DOE)'s Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) atmosphere model to examine the sensitivity of clouds and precipitation to the increase of vertical resolution of the model. We attempt to understand what results in the behavior change (if any) of convective processes represented by the unified shallow and turbulent scheme named CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) and the Zhang-McFarlane deep convection scheme in ACME. A short-term hindcast approach is used to isolate parameterization issues from the large-scale circulation. The analysis emphasizes on how the change of vertical resolution could affect precipitation partitioning between convective- and grid-scale as well as the vertical profiles of convection-related quantities such as temperature, humidity, clouds, convective heating and drying, and entrainment and detrainment. The goal is to provide physical insight into potential issues with model convective processes associated with the increase of model vertical resolution. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  14. Urban effects of Chennai on sea breeze induced convection and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    High-resolution MM5 simulations were used to investigate the influence of Chennai urban land use on sea breeze initiated convection and precipitation. A comparison of observed and simulated 10 m wind speed and direction over Chennai showed that the model was able to simulate the timing and strength of the sea ...

  15. Interannual variability of the thermohaline structure in the convective gyre of the Greenland Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseev, G. V.; Ivanov, V. V.; Korablev, A. A.

    The temporal variability of thermohaline conditions in the Greenland Sea Convective gyre is examined on the basis of the long term observational series. The existence of two stable types of winter thermohaline structure is discovered. The transition from one type to another occurs through the pre-convective state and consequent convection. The characteristic feature ofthe pre-convective state is an increased (about 0.07 PSU above normal) surface salinity, caused by the external salt water influx. Potential temperature and salinity time series joint analysis confirms the crucial role of the surface salinity in the convection realization. An explanation of the surface to bottom overturning events and of the low frequency variability of convection activity is suggested on this basis.

  16. Intraseasonal variability of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone during austral summer and winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaziello, Ana Carolina Nóbile; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Gandu, Adilson W.

    2016-09-01

    The Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (A-ITCZ) exhibits variations on several time-scales and plays a crucial role in precipitation regimes of northern South America and western Africa. Here we investigate the variability of the A-ITCZ on intraseasonal time-scales during austral summer (November-March) and winter (May-September) based on a multivariate index that describes the main atmospheric features of the A-ITCZ and retains its variability on interannual, semiannual, and intraseasonal time-scales. This index is the time coefficient of the first combined empirical orthogonal function mode of anomalies (annual cycle removed) of precipitation, and zonal and meridional wind components at 850 hPa from the climate forecast system reanalysis (1979-2010). We examine associations between the intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ and the activity of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). We show that during austral summer intraseasonal variability of the A-ITCZ is associated with a Rossby wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. In austral winter this variability is associated with the propagation of a Rossby wave in the Southern Hemisphere consistent with the Pacific-South American pattern. Moreover, we show that intense A-ITCZ events on intraseasonal time-scales are more frequent during the phase of MJO characterized by convection over western Pacific and suppression over the Indian Ocean. These teleconnection patterns induce anomalies in the trade winds and upper level divergence over the equatorial Atlantic that modulate the intensity of the A-ITCZ.

  17. An hourly precipitation dataset for the UK: quality control, climatology, variability and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley; Lewis, Elizabeth

    2014-05-01

    greatest intensities are in the south and the lowest in northern Scotland. However, in most parts of the UK the largest hourly totals generally occur in summer, indicating the importance of convection as a precipitation generating mechanism. Analysis of longer records indicates significant long term trends in mean hourly precipitation intensity are observed but few significant trends in annual maxima are detected. Significant break points in the time series are also detected and may in some cases suggest a shift in the precipitation regime. The longest time series (>40 years) show evidence of increased mean hourly intensities in winter, consistent with observations at the daily timescale but no significant trends may be identified in extremes though there are periods of high frequency of events which indicates the need to investigate the clustering of extremes and the potential for "flood rich" periods. A high-quality hourly precipitation dataset has a number of additional useful applications including the validation of high resolution regional climate model outputs (e.g. 1.5km outputs from the Convective Extremes (CONVEX) project modelling experiments), construction of a gridded, sub-daily precipitation dataset and the potential to improve the operation of the UKCP09 Weather Generator.

  18. Contributions of Asian pollution and SST forcings on precipitation change in the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; So, Jihyeon; Lee, Jong-Won; Kim, Minjoong J.; Jeong, Jaein I.; Park, Rokjin J.

    2017-08-01

    East Asia has a significant concentration of pollutant aerosols, mostly due to rapid industrialization. Previous research indicates that the aerosol effect from Asian pollution outflow could account for the trend of increasing deep convective clouds, as well as an intensification of the storm track, over the North Pacific Ocean in winter since the mid-1990s. However, it is not clear whether such change is solely due to Asian pollutant forcings or not. To understand the relative roles of Asian pollutant aerosols and sea surface temperature (SST) forcings on the precipitation change in the North Pacific, we examine the interannual variation of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) simulated in the global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and the idealized experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) for 1986-2010. The composite analysis indicates that the changes in precipitation amount and storm track intensity in the southwestern North Pacific might be associated with the increase in PM2.5 concentration in East China. However, El Niño-like warming during the years of high PM2.5 concentration may also influence the precipitation amount, as well as the storm track intensity in the central and eastern North Pacific. Model experiments also indicate that the El Niño-like warming and the Asian pollutant aerosols have different effects on precipitation amounts in the North Pacific. Therefore, the precipitation changes, as well as the intensification of the storm track, in the North Pacific might be attributed to both Asian pollutant aerosols and SST forcing in the tropics.

  19. Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

  20. Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karki, Ramchandra; Hasson, Shabeh ul; Gerlitz, Lars; Schickhoff, Udo; Scholten, Thomas; Böhner, Jürgen

    2017-07-01

    Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation as well as the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest), Rolwaling, and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75°) reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5, and 1 km (D1, D2, and D3) for one complete hydrological year (October 2014-September 2015), using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions, however, overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are generally reproduced well by all resolutions; however, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower elevations show a simultaneous warm bias. Unlike higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed in the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such a peak on the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5 km resolution

  1. Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Karki

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation as well as the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest, Rolwaling, and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75° reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5, and 1 km (D1, D2, and D3 for one complete hydrological year (October 2014–September 2015, using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions, however, overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are generally reproduced well by all resolutions; however, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower elevations show a simultaneous warm bias. Unlike higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed in the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such a peak on the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5

  2. Observing convection with satellite, radar, and lightning measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Ulrich; Nisi, Luca; Clementi, Lorenzo; Ventura, Jordi Figueras i.; Gabella, Marco; Hering, Alessandro M.; Sideris, Ioannis; Trefalt, Simona; Germann, Urs

    2015-04-01

    Heavy precipitation, hail, and wind gusts are the fundamental meteorological hazards associated with strong convection and thunderstorms. The thread is particularly severe in mountainous areas, e.g. it is estimated that on average between 50% and 80% of all weather-related damage in Switzerland is caused by strong thunderstorms (Hilker et al., 2010). Intense atmospheric convection is governed by processes that range from the synoptic to the microphysical scale and are considered to be one of the most challenging and difficult weather phenomena to predict. Even though numerical weather prediction models have some skills to predict convection, in general the exact location of the convective initialization and its propagation cannot be forecasted by these models with sufficient precision. Hence, there is a strong interest to improve the short-term forecast by using statistical, object oriented and/or heuristic nowcasting methods. MeteoSwiss has developed several operational nowcasting systems for this purpose such as TRT (Hering, 2008) and COALITION (Nisi, 2014). In this contribution we analyze the typical development of convection using measurements of the Swiss C-band Dual Polarization Doppler weather radar network, the MSG SEVIRI satellite, and the Météorage lighting network. The observations are complemented with the analysis and forecasts of the COSMO model. Special attention is given to the typical evolutionary stages like the pre-convective environment, convective initiation, cloud top glaciation, start, maximum, and end of precipitation and lightning activity. The pre-convective environment is examined using instability indices derived from SEVIRI observations and the COSMO forecasts. During the early development satellite observations are used to observe the rise of the cloud top, the growth of the cloud droplet or crystals, and the glaciation of the cloud top. SEVIRI brightness temperatures, channel differences, and temporal trends as suggested by

  3. Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

  4. Improving representation of convective transport for scale-aware parameterization: 1. Convection and cloud properties simulated with spectral bin and bulk microphysics: CRM Model Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Yi-Chin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Air Resources Board, Sacramento California USA; Xu, Kuan-Man [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton Virginia USA; North, Kirk [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montréal Québec Canada; Collis, Scott [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA; Dong, Xiquan [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks North Dakota USA; Zhang, Guang J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Chen, Qian [Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Kollias, Pavlos [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2015-04-27

    The ultimate goal of this study is to improve the representation of convective transport by cumulus parameterization for mesoscale and climate models. As Part 1 of the study, we perform extensive evaluations of cloud-resolving simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complexes in midlatitude continent and tropical regions using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with spectral bin microphysics (SBM) and with two double-moment bulk microphysics schemes: a modified Morrison (MOR) and Milbrandt and Yau (MY2). Compared to observations, in general, SBM gives better simulations of precipitation and vertical velocity of convective cores than MOR and MY2 and therefore will be used for analysis of scale dependence of eddy transport in Part 2. The common features of the simulations for all convective systems are (1) themodel tends to overestimate convection intensity in the middle and upper troposphere, but SBM can alleviate much of the overestimation and reproduce the observed convection intensity well; (2) the model greatly overestimates Ze in convective cores, especially for the weak updraft velocity; and (3) the model performs better for midlatitude convective systems than the tropical system. The modeled mass fluxes of the midlatitude systems are not sensitive to microphysics schemes but are very sensitive for the tropical case indicating strong microphysics modification to convection. Cloud microphysical measurements of rain, snow, and graupel in convective cores will be critically important to further elucidate issues within cloud microphysics schemes

  5. Mathematical models of convection

    CERN Document Server

    Andreev, Victor K; Goncharova, Olga N; Pukhnachev, Vladislav V

    2012-01-01

    Phenomena of convection are abundant in nature as well as in industry. This volume addresses the subject of convection from the point of view of both, theory and application. While the first three chapters provide a refresher on fluid dynamics and heat transfer theory, the rest of the book describes the modern developments in theory. Thus it brings the reader to the ""front"" of the modern research. This monograph provides the theoretical foundation on a topic relevant to metallurgy, ecology, meteorology, geo-and astrophysics, aerospace industry, chemistry, crystal physics, and many other fiel

  6. Winters fuels report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The outlook for distillate fuel oil this winter is for increased demand and a return to normal inventory patterns, assuming a resumption of normal, cooler weather than last winter. With industrial production expected to grow slightly from last winter's pace, overall consumption is projected to increase 3 percent from last winter, to 3.4 million barrels per day during the heating season (October 1, 1995-March 31, 1996). Much of the supply win come from stock drawdowns and refinery production. Estimates for the winter are from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 4th Quarter 1995 Short-Tenn Energy Outlook (STEO) Mid-World Oil Price Case forecast. Inventories in place on September 30, 1995, of 132 million barrels were 9 percent below the unusually high year-earlier level. Inventories of high-sulfur distillate fuel oil, the principal type used for heating, were 13 percent lower than a year earlier. Supply problems are not anticipated because refinery production and the ready availability of imports should be adequate to meet demand. Residential heating off prices are expected to be somewhat higher than last winter's, as the effects of lower crude oil prices are offset by lower distillate inventories. Heating oil is forecast to average $0.92 per gallon, the highest price since the winter of 1992-93. Diesel fuel (including tax) is predicted to be slightly higher than last year at $1.13 per gallon. This article focuses on the winter assessment for distillate fuel oil, how well last year's STEO winter outlook compared to actual events, and expectations for the coming winter. Additional analyses include regional low-sulfur and high-sulfur distillate supply, demand, and prices, and recent trends in distillate fuel oil inventories

  7. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  8. On the relationship between auroral absorption, electrojet currents and plasma convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. C. Kellerman

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the relationship between auroral absorption, electrojet currents, and ionospheric plasma convection velocity is investigated using a series of new methods where temporal correlations are calculated and analysed for different events and MLT sectors. We employ cosmic noise absorption (CNA observations obtained by the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies (IRIS system in Kilpisjärvi, Finland, plasma convection measurements by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT radar, and estimates of the electrojet currents derived from the Tromsø magnetometer data. The IRIS absorption and EISCAT plasma convection measurements are used as a proxy for the particle precipitation component of the Hall conductance and ionospheric electric field, respectively. It is shown that the electrojet currents are affected by both enhanced conductance and electric field but with the relative importance of these two factors varying with magnetic local time (MLT. The correlation between the current and electric field (absorption is the highest at 12:00–15:00 MLT (00:00–03:00 MLT. It is demonstrated that the electric-field-dominant region is asymmetric with respect to magnetic-noon-midnight meridian extending from 09:00 to 21:00 MLT. This may be related to the recently reported absence of mirror-symmetry between the effects of positive and negative IMF By on the high-latitude plasma convection pattern. The conductivity-dominant region is somewhat wider than previously thought extending from 21:00 to 09:00 MLT with correlation slowly declining from midnight towards the morning, which is interpreted as being in part due to high-energy electron clouds gradually depleting and drifting from midnight towards the morning sector. The conductivity-dominant region is further investigated using the extensive IRIS riometer and Tromsø magnetometer datasets with results showing a distinct seasonal dependence. The region of high current

  9. Convective overshooting in stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrássy, R.

    2015-01-01

    Numerous observations provide evidence that the standard picture, in which convective mixing is limited to the unstable layers of a star, is incomplete. The mixing layers in real stars are significantly more extended than what the standard models predict. Some of the observations require changing

  10. Stochasticc convection parameterization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dorrestijn, J.

    2016-01-01

    Clouds are chaotic, difficult to predict, but above all, magnificent natural phenomena. There are different types of clouds: stratus, a layer of clouds that may produce drizzle, cirrus, clouds in the higher parts of the atmosphere, and cumulus, clouds that arise in convective updrafts. Thermals,

  11. Rainfall Process Partitioning Using S-PROF Radar Observations Collected During the CalWater Field Campaign Winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, A. B.; Neiman, P. J.; Creamean, J.; Hughes, M. R.; Moore, B.; Ralph, F. M.; Prather, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    Vertically pointing S-band radar (S-PROF) observations collected during the CalWater field campaign winter wet seasons are analyzed to partition the observed rainfall into three primary categories: brightband (BB) rain, non-brightband (NBB) rain, and convective rain. NBB rain is primarily a shallow, warm rain process driven by collision and coalescence. Because of its shallow nature, NBB rain is often undetected by the operational NEXRAD radar network. Previous rainfall process partitioning analysis conducted for a coastal mountain site in California has shown that NBB rain contributes about one-third, on average, of the total wet season precipitation observed there. Shallow moist flow with near neutral stability, which is often present in the coastal environment during the warm sectors of landfalling storms, is a key ingredient in the formation of NBB rain. However, NBB rain also has been observed in other storm regimes (e.g., post-cold frontal). NBB rain has been shown to produce rain rates known by forecasters to be capable of producing floods. During the CalWater field campaign winters, S-PROF radars were located in the Sierra Nevada at Sugar Pine Dam (SPD) for three consecutive winters (2009-2011) and at Mariposa (MPI) for the latter two winters (2010-2011). During the southwesterly flow present in the warm sectors of many California landfalling storms, the SPD site was directly downwind of the gap in coastal terrain associated with the San Francisco Bay Delta. This orientation would allow relatively unmodified maritime flow to arrive at SPD. The MPI site was located further south such that airflow arriving at this site during winter storms likely was processed by the coastal terrain south of San Francisco Bay. In this presentation we will examine whether the relative locations of SPD and MPI relative to the coastal terrain impacted the amount of NBB rain that was observed at each site during the CalWater wet seasons. We will use synoptic and mesoscale

  12. Convective Propagation Characteristics Using a Simple Representation of Convective Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, R. B.; Mapes, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    Observed equatorial wave propagation is intimately linked to convective organization and it's coupling to features of the larger-scale flow. In this talk we a use simple 4 level model to accommodate vertical modes of a mass flux convection scheme (shallow, mid-level and deep). Two paradigms of convection are used to represent convective processes. One that has only both random (unorganized) diagnosed fluctuations of convective properties and one with organized fluctuations of convective properties that are amplified by previously existing convection and has an explicit moistening impact on the local convecting environment We show a series of model simulations in single-column, 2D and 3D configurations, where the role of convective organization in wave propagation is shown to be fundamental. For the optimal choice of parameters linking organization to local atmospheric state, a broad array of convective wave propagation emerges. Interestingly the key characteristics of propagating modes are the low-level moistening followed by deep convection followed by mature 'large-scale' heating. This organization structure appears to hold firm across timescales from 5-day wave disturbances to MJO-like wave propagation.

  13. Mars water-ice clouds and precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteway, J A; Komguem, L; Dickinson, C; Cook, C; Illnicki, M; Seabrook, J; Popovici, V; Duck, T J; Davy, R; Taylor, P A; Pathak, J; Fisher, D; Carswell, A I; Daly, M; Hipkin, V; Zent, A P; Hecht, M H; Wood, S E; Tamppari, L K; Renno, N; Moores, J E; Lemmon, M T; Daerden, F; Smith, P H

    2009-07-03

    The light detection and ranging instrument on the Phoenix mission observed water-ice clouds in the atmosphere of Mars that were similar to cirrus clouds on Earth. Fall streaks in the cloud structure traced the precipitation of ice crystals toward the ground. Measurements of atmospheric dust indicated that the planetary boundary layer (PBL) on Mars was well mixed, up to heights of around 4 kilometers, by the summer daytime turbulence and convection. The water-ice clouds were detected at the top of the PBL and near the ground each night in late summer after the air temperature started decreasing. The interpretation is that water vapor mixed upward by daytime turbulence and convection forms ice crystal clouds at night that precipitate back toward the surface.

  14. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  15. Convective heat transfer on Mars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arx, A.V. von; Delgado, A. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    An examination was made into the feasibility of using convective heat transfer on Mars to reject the waste heat from a Closed Brayton Cycle. Forced and natural convection were compared to thermal radiation. For the three radiator configurations studied, it was concluded that thermal radiation will yield the minimum mass and forced convection will result in the minimum area radiator. Other issues such as reliability of a fan motor were not addressed. Convective heat transfer on Mars warrants further investigation. However, the low density of the Martian atmosphere makes it difficult to utilize convective heat transfer without incurring a weight penalty

  16. Evaluation of convection-resolving models using satellite data: The diurnal cycle of summer convection over the Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Keller

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Diurnal moist convection is an important element of summer precipitation over Central Europe and the Alps. It is poorly represented in models using parameterized convection. In this study, we investigate the diurnal cycle of convection during 11 days in June 2007 using the COSMO model. The numerical simulations are compared with satellite measurements of GERB and SEVIRI, AVHRR satellite-based cloud properties and ground-based precipitation and temperature measurements. The simulations use horizontal resolutions of 12 km (convection-parameterizing model, CPM and 2 km (convection-resolving model, CRM and either a one-moment microphysics scheme (1M or a two-moment microphysics scheme (2M.They are conducted for a computational domain that covers an extended Alpine area from Northern Italy to Northern Germany. The CPM with 1M exhibits a significant overestimation of high cloud cover. This results in a compensation effect in the top of the atmosphere energy budget due to an underestimation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR and an overestimation of reflected solar radiation (RSR. The CRM reduces high cloud cover and improves the OLR bias from a domain mean of −20.1 to −2.6 W/m2. When using 2M with ice sedimentation in the CRM, high cloud cover is further reduced. The stronger diurnal cycle of high cloud cover and associated convection over the Alps, compared to less mountainous regions, is well represented by the CRM but underestimated by the CPM. Despite substantial differences in high cloud cover, the use of a 2M has no significant impact on the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Furthermore, a negative mid-level cloud bias is found for all simulations.

  17. Employment and winter construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Larsen, Jacob Norvig

    2011-01-01

    Reduced seasonal building activity in the construction sector is often assumed to be related to hard winter conditions for building activities and poor working conditions for construction workers, resulting in higher costs and poor quality of building products, particularly in the northern...... hemisphere. Can climatic conditions alone explain the sizeable difference in reduction in building activity in the construction sector in European countries in the winter months, or are other factors such as technology, economic cycles and schemes for financial compensation influential as well? What...... possibilities exist for reducing seasonal variation in employment? In addition to a literature review related to winter construction, European and national employment and meteorological data were studied. Finally, ministerial acts, ministerial orders or other public policy documents related to winter...

  18. Deer Wintering Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Deer winter habitat is critical to the long term survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Vermont. Being near the northern extreme of the...

  19. Winter Bottom Trawl Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Winter Bottom Trawl Survey was initiated in 1992 and covered offshore areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Georges Bank. Inshore strata were covered...

  20. Characteristics of different convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of intensity and track of severe extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, P. K.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ferreira, Juan A.; Dasamsetti, S.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

    2018-01-01

    The role of the convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the ARW-WRF (WRF) mesoscale model is examined for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of very severe winter storms such as Xynthia (2010) and Gong (2013) are considered in this study. Most popular CPSs within WRF model, along with Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and WSM6 microphysical parameterization schemes are incorporated for the model experiments. For each storm, four numerical experiments were carried out using New Kain Fritsch (NKF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (Gr3D) and no convection scheme (NCS) respectively. The prime objectives of these experiments were to recognize the best CPS that can forecast the intensity, track, and landfall over the Iberian Peninsula in advance of two days. The WRF model results such as central sea level pressure (CSLP), wind field, moisture flux convergence, geopotential height, jet stream, track and precipitation have shown sensitivity CPSs. The 48-hour lead simulations with BMJ schemes produce the best simulations both regarding ETCs intensity and track than Gr3D and NKF schemes. The average MAE and RMSE of intensities are least that (6.5 hPa in CSLP and 3.4 ms- 1 in the 10-m wind) found in BMJ scheme. The MAE and RMSE for and intensity and track error have revealed that NCS produces large errors than other CPSs experiments. However, for track simulation of these ETCs, at 72-, 48- and 24-hour means track errors were 440, 390 and 158 km respectively. In brevity, BMJ and Gr3D schemes can be used for short and medium range predictions of the ETCs over North Atlantic. For the evaluation of precipitation distributions using Gr3D scheme are good agreement with TRMM satellite than other CPSs.

  1. An extended TRANSCAR model including ionospheric convection: simulation of EISCAT observations using inputs from AMIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available The TRANSCAR ionospheric model was extended to account for the convection of the magnetic field lines in the auroral and polar ionosphere. A mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian 13-moment approach was used to describe the dynamics of an ionospheric plasma tube. In the present study, one focuses on large scale transports in the polar ionosphere. The model was used to simulate a 35-h period of EISCAT-UHF observations on 16-17 February 1993. The first day was magnetically quiet, and characterized by elevated electron concentrations: the diurnal F2 layer reached as much as 1012m-3, which is unusual for a winter and moderate solar activity (F10.7=130 period. An intense geomagnetic event occurred on the second day, seen in the data as a strong intensification of the ionosphere convection velocities in the early afternoon (with the northward electric field reaching 150mVm-1 and corresponding frictional heating of the ions up to 2500K. The simulation used time-dependent AMIE outputs to infer flux-tube transports in the polar region, and to provide magnetospheric particle and energy inputs to the ionosphere. The overall very good agreement, obtained between the model and the observations, demonstrates the high ability of the extended TRANSCAR model for quantitative modelling of the high-latitude ionosphere; however, some differences are found which are attributed to the precipitation of electrons with very low energy. All these results are finally discussed in the frame of modelling the auroral ionosphere with space weather applications in mind.

  2. An extended TRANSCAR model including ionospheric convection: simulation of EISCAT observations using inputs from AMIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available The TRANSCAR ionospheric model was extended to account for the convection of the magnetic field lines in the auroral and polar ionosphere. A mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian 13-moment approach was used to describe the dynamics of an ionospheric plasma tube. In the present study, one focuses on large scale transports in the polar ionosphere. The model was used to simulate a 35-h period of EISCAT-UHF observations on 16-17 February 1993. The first day was magnetically quiet, and characterized by elevated electron concentrations: the diurnal F2 layer reached as much as 1012m-3, which is unusual for a winter and moderate solar activity (F10.7=130 period. An intense geomagnetic event occurred on the second day, seen in the data as a strong intensification of the ionosphere convection velocities in the early afternoon (with the northward electric field reaching 150mVm-1 and corresponding frictional heating of the ions up to 2500K. The simulation used time-dependent AMIE outputs to infer flux-tube transports in the polar region, and to provide magnetospheric particle and energy inputs to the ionosphere. The overall very good agreement, obtained between the model and the observations, demonstrates the high ability of the extended TRANSCAR model for quantitative modelling of the high-latitude ionosphere; however, some differences are found which are attributed to the precipitation of electrons with very low energy. All these results are finally discussed in the frame of modelling the auroral ionosphere with space weather applications in mind.

  3. Theoretical basis for convective invigoration due to increased aerosol concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. J. Lebo

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of increased aerosol loading on the development of deep convective clouds and resulting precipitation amounts are studied by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model as a detailed high-resolution cloud resolving model (CRM with both detailed bulk and bin microphysics schemes. Both models include a physically-based activation scheme that incorporates a size-resolved aerosol population. We demonstrate that the aerosol-induced effect is controlled by the balance between latent heating and the increase in condensed water aloft, each having opposing effects on buoyancy. It is also shown that under polluted conditions, increases in the CCN number concentration reduce the cumulative precipitation due to the competition between the sedimentation and evaporation/sublimation timescales. The effect of an increase in the IN number concentration on the dynamics of deep convective clouds is small and the resulting decrease in domain-averaged cumulative precipitation is shown not to be statistically significant, but may act to suppress precipitation. It is also shown that even in the presence of a decrease in the domain-averaged cumulative precipitation, an increase in the precipitation variance, or in other words, andincrease in rainfall intensity, may be expected in more polluted environments, especially in moist environments.

    A significant difference exists between the predictions based on the bin and bulk microphysics schemes of precipitation and the influence of aerosol perturbations on updraft velocity within the convective core. The bulk microphysics scheme shows little change in the latent heating rates due to an increase in the CCN number concentration, while the bin microphysics scheme demonstrates significant increases in the latent heating aloft with increasing CCN number concentration. This suggests that even a detailed two-bulk microphysics scheme, coupled to a detailed activation scheme, may not be

  4. GPM GROUND VALIDATION ADVANCED MICROWAVE PRECIPITATION RADIOMETER (AMPR) MC3E V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) instrument played a key role in the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The AMPR...

  5. Convection and stellar oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarslev, Magnus Johan

    2017-01-01

    energy exchange between convection and pulsations, i.e. the modal part of the surface effect. Studying excitation and damping mechanisms requires a non-adiabatic treatment. A major part of my research has been modelling damping rates of red giant stars observed by {\\Kp}. The basis for the non...... atmospheres to replace the outer layers of stellar models. The additional turbulent pressure and asymmetrical opacity effects in the atmosphere model, compared to convection in stellar evolution models, serve to expand the atmosphere. The enlarged acoustic cavity lowers the pulsation frequencies bringing them....... However, the effects are barely prominent enough to be distinguishable with today's observational precision. But it does provide means of determining the mixing-length and enables consistent patching. The previously mentioned investigations are based on adiabatic frequency calculations, which neglect...

  6. Convective-stratiform rainfall separation of Typhoon Fitow (2013: A 3D WRF modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface precipitation budget equation in a three-dimensional (3D WRF model framework is derived. By applying the convective-stratiform partition method to the surface precipitation budget equation in the 3D model, this study separated convective and stratiform rainfall of typhoon Fitow (2013. The separations are further verified by examining statistics of vertical velocity, surface precipitation budget, and cloud microphysical budget. Results show that water vapor convergence moistens local atmosphere and offsets hydrometeor divergence, and producing convective rainfall, while hydrometeor convergence primarily supports stratiform rainfall, since water vapor divergence and local atmospheric drying generally cancelled out. Mean ascending motions are prevailing in the entire troposphere in the convective region, whereas mean descending motions occur below 5 km and mean ascending motions occur above in the stratiform region. The frequency distribution of vertical velocity shows vertical velocity has wide distribution with the maximum values up to 13 m s-1 in the convective regions, whereas it has narrow distribution with absolute values confined within 7 m s-1 in the stratiform region. Liquid cloud microphysics is dominant in convective regions and ice cloud microphysics is dominant in stratiform regions. These indicate that the statistics results are generally consistent with the corresponding physical characteristics of the convective-stratiform rainfall structures generalized by previous studies.

  7. Off-line algorithm for calculation of vertical tracer transport in the troposphere due to deep convection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belikov, D.A.; Maksyutov, S.; Krol, M.C.; Fraser, A.; Rigby, M.; Bian, H.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bousquet, P.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Gloor, E.; Haynes, K.; Hess, P.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S.R.; Law, R.M.; Loh, Z.; Meng, L.; Palmer, P.I.; Patra, P.K.; Prinn, R.G.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-01-01

    A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical

  8. Atmospheric forcing in the occurrence of precipitation extremes in Iberia: comparison between the eastern and western sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, J. A.; Mendes, A. R.

    2009-09-01

    The occurrence of severe precipitation deficits in the Iberian Peninsula has major socio-economic and environmental impacts. Several previous studies emphasized the leading role of the large-scale atmospheric flow in the occurrence of long periods with significant precipitation lacks. However, due to the high complexity of the Iberian orography, the sensitivity of the local rain-generating mechanisms to large-scale anomalies is remarkably different from region to region. A principal component analysis of the annual precipitation amounts recorded at a network of meteorological stations over the entire peninsula for the period 1961-1998 corroborates this heterogeneity. With particular significance is the contrast between the western and eastern sectors of the peninsula. In fact, taking into account earlier studies, precipitation in western Iberia is strongly related to large-scale atmospheric patterns over the North Atlantic. On the contrary, precipitation over eastern Iberia is much less associated with these large-scale forcing patterns, but much more linked to local/regional mechanisms. In order to test these hypotheses, eight meteorological stations, four in the western half (Porto, Bragança, Lisboa and Beja) and four in the eastern half (Barcelona, Valencia, Tortosa and Zaragoza) of Iberia are selected taking into account, firstly, the geographical location, and secondly the quality and homogeneity of the respective time series. A set of extremely wet/dry seasons was subsequently chosen for each weather station separately, taking into account the 90th percentile of the respective empirical distributions. The analysis of the different atmospheric fields (precipitation rates, convective precipitation, precipitable water, specific humidity, relative humidity, surface temperature, sea surface pressure, geopotential heights, wind components and vorticity at different isobaric levels) is undertaken by using data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

  9. Lagrangian evaluation of convective shower characteristics in a convection-permitting model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erwan Brisson

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Convection-permitting models (CPMs have proven their usefulness in representing precipitation on a sub-daily scale. However, investigations on sub-hourly scales are still lacking, even though these are the scales for which showers exhibit the most variability. A Lagrangian approach is implemented here to evaluate the representation of showers in a CPM, using the limited-area climate model COSMO-CLM. This approach consists of tracking 5‑min precipitation fields to retrieve different features of showers (e.g., temporal pattern, horizontal speed, lifetime. In total, 312 cases are simulated at a resolution of 0.01 ° over Central Germany, and among these cases, 78 are evaluated against a radar dataset. The model is able to represent most observed features for different types of convective cells. In addition, the CPM reproduced well the observed relationship between the precipitation characteristics and temperature indicating that the COSMO-CLM model is sophisticated enough to represent the climatological features of showers.

  10. Magnetic Control of Convection during Protein Crystallization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, N.; Leslie, F. W.

    2004-01-01

    An important component in biotechnology, particularly in the area of protein engineering and rational drug design is the knowledge of the precise three-dimensional molecular structure of proteins. The quality of structural information obtained from X-ray diffraction methods is directly dependent on the degree of perfection of the protein crystals. As a consequence, the growth of high quality macromolecular Crystals for diffraction analyses has been the central focus for bio-chemists, biologists, and bioengineers. Macromolecular crystals are obtained from solutions that contain the crystallizing species in equilibrium with higher aggregates, ions, precipitants, other possible phases of the protein, foreign particles, the walls of container, and a likely host of other impurities. By changing transport modes in general, i.e., reduction of convection and Sedimentation as is achieved in "microgravity", we have been able to dramatically affect the movement and distribution of macromolecules in the fluid, and thus their transport, f o d o n of crystal nuclei, and adsorption to the crystal surface. While a limited number of high quality crystals from space flights have been obtained, as the recent National Research Council (NRC) review of the NASA microgravity crystallization program pointed out, the scientific approach and research in crystallization of proteins has been mainly empirical yielding inconclusive results. We postulate that we can reduce convection in ground-based experiments and we can understand the different aspects of convection control through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients. We postulate that limited convection in a magnetic field will provide the environment for the growth of high quality crystals. The approach exploits the variation of fluid magnetic susceptibility with counteracts on for this purpose and the convective damping is realized by appropriately positioning the crystal growth cell so that the magnetic susceptibility

  11. Convection heat transfer

    CERN Document Server

    Bejan, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    Written by an internationally recognized authority on heat transfer and thermodynamics, this second edition of Convection Heat Transfer contains new and updated problems and examples reflecting real-world research and applications, including heat exchanger design. Teaching not only structure but also technique, the book begins with the simplest problem solving method (scale analysis), and moves on to progressively more advanced and exact methods (integral method, self similarity, asymptotic behavior). A solutions manual is available for all problems and exercises.

  12. Detection of Mesoscale Vortices and Their Role in Subsequent Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Mid-level mesoscale vortices impact warm-season precipitation by initiating and focusing deep convection. Given their significance to forecasting, it is important to understand mesoscale vortices, their frequency, and their impact on subsequent convection in greater detail. This research was a pilot study to identify such vortices using two separate techniques. Vortices were identified through a subjective visual identification technique that relied mostly on composite radar reflectivity and satellite imagery, as well as through an objective algorithm applied to hourly 20-km Rapid Update Cycle model analyses. Vortices arising within organized convection, called mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs), as well as ones forming in the absence of convection (dry vortices) were identified over the central United States during an active period from 1-10 June 2009. Additionally, MCVs were identified that were responsible for triggering subsequent convection. The results from the subjective and objective methods were compared, and vortex characteristics such as duration were analyzed. The objective algorithm detected more vortices than expected, as well as an approximately equal distribution of dry and convective vortices. Approximately two-thirds of the MCVs detected by the algorithm were also detectable by the subjective, visual method. MCVs that triggered new convection accounted for less than half of all cases, while in general MCVs lasted longer than dry vortices. While extension of this research is necessary in order to apply to a more broad range of MCVs, these results demonstrate the potential of the methodology in identifying these vortices, which will potentially lead to a greater understanding of such systems.

  13. Design Aspects of the Rayleigh Convection Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Featherstone, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the long-term generation of planetary or stellar magnetic field requires complementary knowledge of the large-scale fluid dynamics pervading large fractions of the object's interior. Such large-scale motions are sensitive to the system's geometry which, in planets and stars, is spherical to a good approximation. As a result, computational models designed to study such systems often solve the MHD equations in spherical geometry, frequently employing a spectral approach involving spherical harmonics. We present computational and user-interface design aspects of one such modeling tool, the Rayleigh convection code, which is suitable for deployment on desktop and petascale-hpc architectures alike. In this poster, we will present an overview of this code's parallel design and its built-in diagnostics-output package. Rayleigh has been developed with NSF support through the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics and is expected to be released as open-source software in winter 2017/2018.

  14. ARM Support for the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (AS-PECAN) Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, D. D. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring, MD (United States); Geerts, B. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2016-04-01

    The Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign was a large multi-agency/multi-institutional experiment that targeted nighttime convection events in the central plains of the United States in order to better understand a range of processes that lead to the initiation and upscale growth of deep convection. Both weather and climate models struggle to properly represent the timing and intensity of precipitation in the central United States in their simulations. These models must be able to represent the interactions between the nocturnal stable boundary layer (SBL), the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), and a reservoir of convectively available potential energy (CAPE) that frequently exists above the SBL. Furthermore, a large fraction of the nocturnal precipitation is due to the organization of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). In particular, there were four research foci for the PECAN campaign: •The initiation of elevated nocturnal convection focus seeks to elucidate the mesoscaleenvironmental characteristics and processes that lead to convection initiation (CI) and provide baseline data on the early evolution of mesoscale convective clusters. •The dynamics and internal structure and microphysics of nocturnal MCSs focus will investigatethe transition from surface-based to elevated storm structure, the interaction of cold pools generated by MCSs with the nocturnal stable boundary layer, and how the organization and evolution of elevated convection is influenced by the SBL and the vertical profile of wind and stability above the LLJ. •The bores and wave-like disturbances focus seeks to advance knowledge of the initiation of boredisturbances by convection, how the vertical profile of stability and winds modulate bore structure, the role of these disturbances in the initiation, maintenance, and organization of deep convection, and their impact on the LLJ and SBL. •The LLJ focus seeks to understand the processes that influence the spatial and

  15. The Stochastic Multicloud Model as part of an operational convection parameterisation in a comprehensive GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Karsten; Jakob, Christian; Möbis, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    An adequate representation of convective processes in numerical models of the atmospheric circulation (general circulation models, GCMs) remains one of the grand challenges in atmospheric science. In particular, the models struggle with correctly representing the spatial distribution and high variability of tropical convection. It is thought that this model deficiency partly results from formulating current convection parameterisation schemes in a purely deterministic manner. Here, we use observations of tropical convection to inform the design of a novel convection parameterisation with stochastic elements. The novel scheme is built around the Stochastic MultiCloud Model (SMCM, Khouider et al 2010). We present the progress made in utilising SMCM-based estimates of updraft area fractions at cloud base as part of the deep convection scheme of a GCM. The updraft area fractions are used to yield one part of the cloud base mass-flux used in the closure assumption of convective mass-flux schemes. The closure thus receives a stochastic component, potentially improving modeled convective variability and coherence. For initial investigations, we apply the above methodology to the operational convective parameterisation of the ECHAM6 GCM. We perform 5-year AMIP simulations, i.e. with prescribed observed SSTs. We find that with the SMCM, convection is weaker and more coherent and continuous from timestep to timestep compared to the standard model. Total global precipitation is reduced in the SMCM run, but this reduces i) the overall error compared to observed global precipitation (GPCP) and ii) middle tropical tropospheric temperature biases compared to ERA-Interim. Hovmoeller diagrams indicate a slightly higher degree of convective organisation compared to the base case and Wheeler-Kiladis frequency wavenumber diagrams indicate slightly more spectral power in the MJO range.

  16. The nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velikhow, Y.P.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear winter is an example of possible secondary effects, and if we speak of secondary we are thinking of small-scale second-order effects, but a nuclear winter is not a second-order effect. If you calculate the amount of heat produced by a nuclear explosion, it is a very small amount which does not have any chance of changing the Earth's climate, but a nuclear explosion drives or stars some new mechanism - the mechanism of nuclear winter - after 100 megatons of dust are transferred to the upper atmosphere. Another example of such amplification is radioactive fall-out, especially long-life radioactive fall-out after the possible elimination of the nuclear power industry, nuclear storage and distribution of storage waste around the globe. This is a very powerful amplification mechanism

  17. Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Vermaat, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    More frequent western atmospheric circulation over Europe results in increased precipitation in winter, and could result in increasing river discharges. We made a quantitative assessment of the impact of variation in atmospheric circulation, defined by the frequency of western circulation in the

  18. Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, MP; Petersen, WA; Del Genio, AD; Giangrande, SE; Heymsfield, A; Heymsfield, G; Hou, AY; Kollias, P; Orr, B; Rutledge, SA; Schwaller, MR; Zipser, E

    2010-04-10

    The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) will take place in central Oklahoma during the April–May 2011 period. The experiment is a collaborative effort between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Ground Validation (GV) program. The field campaign leverages the unprecedented observing infrastructure currently available in the central United States, combined with an extensive sounding array, remote sensing and in situ aircraft observations, NASA GPM ground validation remote sensors, and new ARM instrumentation purchased with American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding. The overarching goal is to provide the most complete characterization of convective cloud systems, precipitation, and the environment that has ever been obtained, providing constraints for model cumulus parameterizations and space-based rainfall retrieval algorithms over land that have never before been available.

  19. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Precipitation in Guizhou Based on TRMM 3B42 Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Cao, Guangjie; Li, Wei; Zhao, Xuemei

    2017-08-01

    Precipitation is an important part of the earth’s climate system. This article makes full use of the advantages of remote sensing images. In this paper, the TRMM 3B42 satellite precipitation from 1998 to 2013 is selected as the data source and Guizhou Province as the research area. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province are studied by linear trend estimation, linear regression analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis. The conclusion as below: Precipitation shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest in Guizhou Province. From the seasonal scale, Precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer and the least precipitation in winter. Over the past 16 years, precipitation in Guizhou Province has shown a fluctuating change. Summer precipitation trend is more obvious. And winter precipitation is not obvious.

  20. Modelling of stellar convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupka, Friedrich; Muthsam, Herbert J.

    2017-07-01

    The review considers the modelling process for stellar convection rather than specific astrophysical results. For achieving reasonable depth and length we deal with hydrodynamics only, omitting MHD. A historically oriented introduction offers first glimpses on the physics of stellar convection. Examination of its basic properties shows that two very different kinds of modelling keep being needed: low dimensional models (mixing length, Reynolds stress, etc.) and "full" 3D simulations. A list of affordable and not affordable tasks for the latter is given. Various low dimensional modelling approaches are put in a hierarchy and basic principles which they should respect are formulated. In 3D simulations of low Mach number convection the inclusion of then unimportant sound waves with their rapid time variation is numerically impossible. We describe a number of approaches where the Navier-Stokes equations are modified for their elimination (anelastic approximation, etc.). We then turn to working with the full Navier-Stokes equations and deal with numerical principles for faithful and efficient numerics. Spatial differentiation as well as time marching aspects are considered. A list of codes allows assessing the state of the art. An important recent development is the treatment of even the low Mach number problem without prior modification of the basic equation (obviating side effects) by specifically designed numerical methods. Finally, we review a number of important trends such as how to further develop low-dimensional models, how to use 3D models for that purpose, what effect recent hardware developments may have on 3D modelling, and others.

  1. Bidispersive-inclined convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulone, Giuseppe; Straughan, Brian

    2016-01-01

    A model is presented for thermal convection in an inclined layer of porous material when the medium has a bidispersive structure. Thus, there are the usual macropores which are full of a fluid, but there are also a system of micropores full of the same fluid. The model we employ is a modification of the one proposed by Nield & Kuznetsov (2006 Int. J. Heat Mass Transf. 49, 3068–3074. (doi:10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2006.02.008)), although we consider a single temperature field only. PMID:27616934

  2. Dynamic subgrid heterogeneity of convective cloud in a global model: description and evaluation of the Convective Cloud Field Model (CCFM) in ECHAM6-HAM2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipling, Zak; Stier, Philip; Labbouz, Laurent; Wagner, Till

    2017-01-01

    The Convective Cloud Field Model (CCFM) attempts to address some of the shortcomings of both the commonly used bulk mass-flux parameterisations and those using a prescribed spectrum of clouds. By considering the cloud spectrum as a competitive system in which cloud types interact through their environment in competition for convective available potential energy (CAPE), the spectrum is able to respond dynamically to changes in the environment. An explicit Lagrangian entraining plume model for each cloud type allows for the representation of convective-cloud microphysics, paving the way for the study of aerosol-convection interactions at the global scale where their impact remains highly uncertain. In this paper, we introduce a new treatment of convective triggering, extending the entraining plume model below cloud base to explicitly represent the unsaturated thermals which initiate convection. This allows for a realistic vertical velocity to develop at cloud base, so that the cloud microphysics can begin with physically based activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). We evaluate this new version of CCFM in the context of the global model ECHAM6-HAM, comparing its performance to the standard Tiedtke-Nordeng parameterisation used in that model. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation is improved, both against a climatology from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and also against diurnal cycles from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) with a reduced tendency for precipitation to peak too early in the afternoon. Cloud cover is quite sensitive to the vertical level from which the dry convection is initiated, but when this is chosen appropriately the cloud cover compares well with that from Tiedtke-Nordeng. CCFM can thus perform as well as, or better than, the standard scheme while providing additional capabilities to represent convective-cloud microphysics and dynamic cloud morphology at the global scale.

  3. Changes in Convective Rainfall in future climates over Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadian, A.; Burton, R.; Blyth, A. M.; Mobbs, S.; Warner, J.; Groves, J.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Tye, M. R.; Thielen, J.

    2016-12-01

    This project aims to analyse extreme convective weather events over the European domain in a future climate scenario using the Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF). Climate models have insufficient resolution to properly simulate small meso-scale precipitation events which are critical in understanding climate change. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to resolve small (and large) scale processes and in particular to be convection permitting. Changes in extreme weather events in the future climate can be represented as small scale processes and regional meso-scale precipitation events. A channel outer domain (D01), with a resolution of 20km at +/-300 N/S and 8km at 680N, drives a one way nested inner domain resolution which is a factor of 5:1 smaller. For calibration purposes, the outer domain is driven at the Northern / Southern boundaries either by ERA-interim or bias corrected data CCSM for 1989-1995. For the future simulations, the outer domain is driven by CCSM data for 2020-2025 and 2030-2035. An initial analysis for the inner domain convection over Western Europe will be presented. This presentation will provide details of the project. An inter-comparison of the simulations driven for 1990-1995 will provide information on the applicability of using the climate data driven results for the analysis of the future years. Initial plots of changes in precipitation over the future decades will focus on the summer precipitation, providing mean and standard deviation changes. The results indicate that the summer months are dryer, the wet events become shorter, with longer dry periods. The peak precipitation for the events does not increase, but the average rainfall and the amount of heavy rain (>7.6mm / hour) does increase. Future plans for use of the data will be discussed. Use the output data to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and

  4. Development of a moisture scheme for the explicit numerical simulation of moist convection

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bopape, Mary-Jane M

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available .kashan.co.za] Development of a moisture scheme for the explicit numerical simulation of moist convection M BOPAPE, F ENGELBRECHT, D RANDALL AND W LANDMAN CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment, PO Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa Email: mbopape... sigma coordinate model that incorporates moisture effects, so that it can simulate convective clouds and precipitation. moisture terms equivalent to those of the miller and pearce (1974) model are incorporated in the equation set used: ; (1) ; (2...

  5. A satellite infrared technique to estimate tropical convective and stratiform rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Negri, Andrew J.

    1988-01-01

    A new method of estimating both convective and stratiform precipitation from satellite infrared data is described. This technique defines convective cores and assigns rain rate and rain area to these features based on the infrared brightness temperature and the cloud model approach of Adler and Mack (1984). The method was tested for four south Florida cases during the second Florida Area Cumulus Experiment, and the results are presented and compared with three other satellite rain estimation schemes.

  6. Titan's Emergence from Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

  7. Spatial dependences among precipitation maxima over Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vannitsem

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available For a wide range of applications in hydrology, the probability distribution of precipitation maxima represents a fundamental quantity to build dykes, propose flood planning policies, or more generally, to mitigate the impact of precipitation extremes. Classical Extreme Value Theory (EVT has been applied in this context by usually assuming that precipitation maxima can be considered as Independent and Identically Distributed (IID events, which approximately follow a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV at each recording site. In practice, weather stations records can not be considered as independent in space.

    Assessing the spatial dependences among precipitation maxima provided by two Belgium measurement networks is the main goal of this work. The pairwise dependences are estimated by a variogram of order one, also called madogram, that is specially tailored to be in compliance with spatial EVT and to capture EVT bivariate structures. Our analysis of Belgium precipitation maxima indicates that the degree of dependence varies greatly according to three factors: the distance between two stations, the season (summer or winter and the precipitation accumulation duration (hourly, daily, monthly, etc.. Increasing the duration (from one hour to 20 days strengthens the spatial dependence. The full independence is reached after about 50 km (100 km for summer (winter for a duration of one hour, while for long durations only after a few hundred kilometers. In addition this dependence is always larger in winter than in summer whatever is the duration. An explanation of these properties in terms of the dynamical processes dominating during the two seasons is advanced.

  8. Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Trier, Stanley B.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of 100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years1, causing fatalities and economic losses2. However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future3. Here, a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs4 is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5). A storm-tracking algorithm6 indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15-40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40 km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.

  9. Convective Lyapunov spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenfack Jiotsa, Aurélien; Politi, Antonio; Torcini, Alessandro

    2013-06-01

    We generalize the concept of the convective (or velocity-dependent) Lyapunov exponent from the maximum rate Λ(v) to an entire spectrum Λ(v, n). Our results are derived by following two distinct computational protocols: (i) Legendre transform within the chronotopic approach (Lepri et al 1996 J. Stat. Phys. 82 1429); (ii) by letting evolve an ensemble of initially localized perturbations. The two approaches turn out to be mutually consistent. Moreover, we find the existence of a phase transition: above a critical value n = nc of the integrated density of exponents, the zero-velocity convective exponent is strictly smaller than the corresponding Lyapunov exponent. This phenomenon is traced back to a change of concavity of the so-called temporal Lyapunov spectrum for n > nc, which, therefore, turns out to be a dynamically invariant quantity. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Lyapunov analysis: from dynamical systems theory to applications’.

  10. Cloud-Resolving Modeling Intercomparison Study of a Squall Line Case from MC3E - Properties of Convective Core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, J.; Han, B.; Varble, A.; Morrison, H.; North, K.; Kollias, P.; Chen, B.; Dong, X.; Giangrande, S. E.; Khain, A.; Lin, Y.; Mansell, E.; Milbrandt, J.; Stenz, R.; Thompson, G.; Wang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The large spread in CRM model simulations of deep convection and aerosol effects on deep convective clouds (DCCs) makes it difficult to (1) further our understanding of deep convection and (2) define "benchmarks" and then limit their use in parameterization developments. A constrained model intercomparsion study on a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes to understand specific processes that lead to the large spreads of simulated convection and precipitation. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area but a much narrower stratiform area. The magnitudes of virtual potential temperature drop, pressure rise, and wind speed peak associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations generally overestimate the vertical velocity and radar reflectivity in convective cores compared with the retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across eight schemes. The spread of updraft velocity is the combination of both low-level pressure perturbation gradient (PPG) and buoyancy. Both PPG and thermal buoyancy are small for simulations of weak convection but both are large for those of strong convection. Ice-related parameterizations contribute majorly to the spread of updraft velocity, while they are not the reason for the large spread of precipitation. The understandings gained in this study can help to focus future observations and parameterization development.

  11. The role of deep convection on the dynamics of the North Atlantic phytoplankton community

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindemann, Christian

    different modeling approaches are used to investigate several aspects of the bio-physical interplay between deep convection and phytoplankton growth. Simple water column models for phytoplankton have suggested that phytoplankton cannot grow in highly turbulent deep mixed layers, conditions typical for deep...... waters and suggests that it is the convective overturning within the mixed layer, that enables cell to thrive under these conditions. To investigate the role of acclimation during winter and during the onset of the spring bloom, an adaptive Individual-Based-Model (IBM) was developed, allowing to test...... the phyto-convection hypothesis in relation to individual physiological rates. The model in-cooperates an adaptive parameterization for respiration and a mechanistic sinking model, both of which have been suggested as important contributers to phytoplankton losses during the winter. While cell sinking...

  12. Diurnal variation of precipitation over the Carolina Sandhills region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Diurnal variation of precipitation over the Carolina Sandhills region. 591. Figure 16. WRF forecast local 10 m winds for 1900 Z on 10 August 2001. the analysis should be done with more stations to draw a more robust conclusion on the success of the NAM model. 5. Numerical simulation of convection,. 9–11 August 2001.

  13. Evaluation of cloud convection and tracer transport in a three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Feng

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the performance of cloud convection and tracer transport in a global off-line 3-D chemical transport model. Various model simulations are performed using different meteorological (reanalyses (ERA-40, ECMWF operational and ECMWF Interim to diagnose the updraft mass flux, convective precipitation and cloud top height.

    The diagnosed upward mass flux distribution from TOMCAT agrees quite well with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim below 200 hPa. Inclusion of midlevel convection improves the agreement at mid-high latitudes. However, the reanalyses show strong convective transport up to 100 hPa, well into the tropical tropopause layer (TTL, which is not captured by TOMCAT. Similarly, the model captures the spatial and seasonal variation of convective cloud top height although the mean modelled value is about 2 km lower than observed.

    The ERA-Interim reanalyses have smaller archived upward convective mass fluxes than ERA-40, and smaller convective precipitation, which is in better agreement with satellite-based data. TOMCAT captures these relative differences when diagnosing convection from the large-scale fields. The model also shows differences in diagnosed convection with the version of the operational analyses used, which cautions against using results of the model from one specific time period as a general evaluation.

    We have tested the effect of resolution on the diagnosed modelled convection with simulations ranging from 5.6° × 5.6° to 1° × 1°. Overall, in the off-line model, the higher model resolution gives stronger vertical tracer transport, however, it does not make a large change to the diagnosed convective updraft mass flux (i.e., the model results using the convection scheme fail to capture the strong convection transport up to 100 hPa as seen in the archived convective mass fluxes. Similarly, the resolution of the forcing winds in the higher resolution CTM does not make a

  14. Detection of soil moisture impact in convective initiation in the central region of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolores, Edgar; Caetano, Ernesto

    2017-04-01

    Soil moisture is important for understanding hydrological cycle variability in many regions. Local surface heat and moisture fluxes represent a major source of convective rainfall in Mexico during the summer, driven by positive evaporation-precipitation feedback. The effects of soil moisture are directly reflected in the limitation of evapotranspiration, affecting the development of the planetary boundary layer and, therefore, the initiation and intensity of convective precipitation. This study presents preliminary analysis of the role of soil moisture in convective initiations in central Mexico, for which a methodology for the detection of convective initiations similar to Taylor (2015) has been considered. The results show that the moisture fluxes from the surface influence the development of convection favored by mesoscale circulations at low levels. Initiations are more frequent in regions less humid than their surroundings with the very strong signal during the month of September. The knowledge of the soil predisposition to allow the development of deep convection suggests an alternative tool for the prediction of convective rains in Mexico.

  15. Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Holly S.; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2009-01-01

    Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

  16. Microphysical properties of frozen particles inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) polarimetric measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jie; Wu, Dong L.

    2017-02-01

    Scattering differences induced by frozen particle microphysical properties are investigated, using the vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized radiances from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) 89 and 166 GHz channels. It is the first study on frozen particle microphysical properties on a global scale that uses the dual-frequency microwave polarimetric signals.From the ice cloud scenes identified by the 183.3 ± 3 GHz channel brightness temperature (Tb), we find that the scattering by frozen particles is highly polarized, with V-H polarimetric differences (PDs) being positive throughout the tropics and the winter hemisphere mid-latitude jet regions, including PDs from the GMI 89 and 166 GHz TBs, as well as the PD at 640 GHz from the ER-2 Compact Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR) during the TC4 campaign. Large polarization dominantly occurs mostly near convective outflow regions (i.e., anvils or stratiform precipitation), while the polarization signal is small inside deep convective cores as well as at the remote cirrus region. Neglecting the polarimetric signal would easily result in as large as 30 % error in ice water path retrievals. There is a universal bell curve in the PD-TBV relationship, where the PD amplitude peaks at ˜ 10 K for all three channels in the tropics and increases slightly with latitude (2-4 K). Moreover, the 166 GHz PD tends to increase in the case where a melting layer is beneath the frozen particles aloft in the atmosphere, while 89 GHz PD is less sensitive than 166 GHz to the melting layer. This property creates a unique PD feature for the identification of the melting layer and stratiform rain with passive sensors.Horizontally oriented non-spherical frozen particles are thought to produce the observed PD because of different ice scattering properties in the V and H polarizations. On the other hand, turbulent mixing within deep convective cores inevitably promotes the random

  17. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  18. Regional analysis of convective systems during the West African monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy, Bradley Nicholas

    The West African monsoon (WAM) occurs during the boreal summer and is responsible for a majority of precipitation in the northern portion of West Africa. A distinct shift of precipitation, often driven by large propagating mesoscale convective systems, is indicated from satellite observations. Excepting the coarser satellite observations, sparse data across the continent has prevented understanding of mesoscale variability of these important systems. The interaction between synoptic and mesoscale features appears to be an important part of the WAM system. Without an understanding of the mesoscale properties of precipitating systems, improved understanding of the feedback mechanism between spatial scales cannot be attained. Convective and microphysical characteristics of West African convective systems are explored using various observational data sets. Focus is directed toward meso -alpha and -beta scale convective systems to improve our understanding of characteristics at this spatial scale and contextualize their interaction with the larger-scale. Ground-based radar observations at three distinct geographical locations in West Africa along a common latitudinal band (Niamey, Niger [continental], Kawsara, Senegal [coastal], and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde [maritime]) are analyzed to determine convective system characteristics in each domain during a 29 day period in 2006. Ancillary datasets provided by the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA-AMMA (NAMMA) field campaigns are also used to place the radar observations in context. Results show that the total precipitation is dominated by propagating mesoscale convective systems. Convective characteristics vary according to environmental properties, such as vertical shear, CAPE, and the degree of synoptic forcing. Data are bifurcated based on the presence or absence of African easterly waves. In general, African easterly waves appear to enhance mesoscale convective system strength

  19. Convection in porous media

    CERN Document Server

    Nield, Donald A

    1992-01-01

    This book provides a user-friendly introduction to the topic of convection in porous media The authors as- sume that the reader is familiar with the basic elements of fluid mechanics and heat transfer, but otherwise the book is self-contained The book will be useful both as a review (for reference) and as a tutorial work, suitable as a textbook in a graduate course or seminar The book brings into perspective the voluminous research that has been performed during the last two decades The field has recently exploded because of worldwide concern with issues such as energy self-sufficiency and pollution of the environment Areas of application include the insulation of buildings and equipment, energy storage and recovery, geothermal reservoirs, nuclear waste disposal, chemical reactor engineering, and the storage of heat-generating materials such as grain and coal Geophysical applications range from the flow of groundwater around hot intrusions to the stability of snow against avalanches

  20. Convection in Porous Media

    CERN Document Server

    Nield, Donald A

    2013-01-01

    Convection in Porous Media, 4th Edition, provides a user-friendly introduction to the subject, covering a wide range of topics, such as fibrous insulation, geological strata, and catalytic reactors. The presentation is self-contained, requiring only routine mathematics and the basic elements of fluid mechanics and heat transfer. The book will be of use not only to researchers and practicing engineers as a review and reference, but also to graduate students and others entering the field. The new edition features approximately 1,750 new references and covers current research in nanofluids, cellular porous materials, strong heterogeneity, pulsating flow, and more. Recognized as the standard reference in the field Includes a comprehensive, 250-page reference list Cited over 2300 times to date in its various editions Serves as an introduction for those entering the field and as a comprehensive reference for experienced researchers Features new sections on nanofluids, carbon dioxide sequestration, and applications...

  1. Editorial - The winter Atomiades

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    As we wrote in our previous editorial, the Staff Association gives direct support to sports events, such as the Atomiades, a section of the Association of Sports Communities of European Research Institutes, which brings together sportsmen and women from 38 European research centres in 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Russia, and Switzerland). The summer Atomiades take place between the months of June and September every three years. Thirteen such events have taken place since 1973, the last one in June 2009 in Berlin. As far as the winter Atomiades are concerned, also organized every three years, and alternating with the summer Atomiades, there have been eleven since 1981, the last one at the end of January this year in neighbouring France. The following article tells the wonderful adventure of the CERN staff who took part in this event. A positive outcome for CERN skiers at the winter Atomiades The 11t...

  2. Internal Wave Generation by Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecoanet, Daniel Michael

    In nature, it is not unusual to find stably stratified fluid adjacent to convectively unstable fluid. This can occur in the Earth's atmosphere, where the troposphere is convective and the stratosphere is stably stratified; in lakes, where surface solar heating can drive convection above stably stratified fresh water; in the oceans, where geothermal heating can drive convection near the ocean floor, but the water above is stably stratified due to salinity gradients; possible in the Earth's liquid core, where gradients in thermal conductivity and composition diffusivities maybe lead to different layers of stable or unstable liquid metal; and, in stars, as most stars contain at least one convective and at least one radiative (stably stratified) zone. Internal waves propagate in stably stratified fluids. The characterization of the internal waves generated by convection is an open problem in geophysical and astrophysical fluid dynamics. Internal waves can play a dynamically important role via nonlocal transport. Momentum transport by convectively excited internal waves is thought to generate the quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere, an important physical phenomenon used to calibrate global climate models. Angular momentum transport by convectively excited internal waves may play a crucial role in setting the initial rotation rates of neutron stars. In the last year of life of a massive star, convectively excited internal waves may transport even energy to the surface layers to unbind them, launching a wind. In each of these cases, internal waves are able to transport some quantity--momentum, angular momentum, energy--across large, stable buoyancy gradients. Thus, internal waves represent an important, if unusual, transport mechanism. This thesis advances our understanding of internal wave generation by convection. Chapter 2 provides an underlying theoretical framework to study this problem. It describes a detailed calculation of the

  3. Scoping a field experiment: error diagnostics of TRMM precipitation radar estimates in complex terrain as a basis for IPHEx2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Y.; Wilson, A. M.; Barros, A. P.

    2015-03-01

    A diagnostic analysis of the space-time structure of error in quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from the precipitation radar (PR) on the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite is presented here in preparation for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) in 2014. IPHEx is the first NASA ground-validation field campaign after the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite. In anticipation of GPM, a science-grade high-density raingauge network was deployed at mid to high elevations in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA, since 2007. This network allows for direct comparison between ground-based measurements from raingauges and satellite-based QPE (specifically, PR 2A25 Version 7 using 5 years of data 2008-2013). Case studies were conducted to characterize the vertical profiles of reflectivity and rain rate retrievals associated with large discrepancies with respect to ground measurements. The spatial and temporal distribution of detection errors (false alarm, FA; missed detection, MD) and magnitude errors (underestimation, UND; overestimation, OVR) for stratiform and convective precipitation are examined in detail toward elucidating the physical basis of retrieval error. The diagnostic error analysis reveals that detection errors are linked to persistent stratiform light rainfall in the southern Appalachians, which explains the high occurrence of FAs throughout the year, as well as the diurnal MD maximum at midday in the cold season (fall and winter) and especially in the inner region. Although UND dominates the error budget, underestimation of heavy rainfall conditions accounts for less than 20% of the total, consistent with regional hydrometeorology. The 2A25 V7 product underestimates low-level orographic enhancement of rainfall associated with fog, cap clouds and cloud to cloud feeder-seeder interactions over ridges, and overestimates light rainfall in the valleys by large amounts, though this

  4. Principle of a code computing the migration of ions with precipitate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangin, J.P.; Hoan, N.N.

    1985-09-01

    A computational method is presented to describe the migration of ions in porous rocks. For the description of the migration, due to convection and Fick diffusion the creation and annihilation of precipitate is taken into account. The separation between regions with and without precipitate is evolving in time, but the meshes are fixed

  5. Winter is losing its cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, S.

    2017-12-01

    Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

  6. Coastal precipitation formation and discharge based on TRMM observations

    OpenAIRE

    R. H. Heiblum; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2011-01-01

    The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds creates persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

    Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterrenean. During the winter the Mediterrenean sea is usually warmer than the adjacent land, resulting in frequent occurence of land breeze ...

  7. Influence of Subtropical Jetstream on Arabian Gulf Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandeep, S.; Pauluis, O.; Ravindran, A. M.; TP, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Arabian Gulf and surrounding regions are predominantly arid. However, this region hosts a large population due to the intense economic activity that is centered on the exploration of natural resources in and around the Arabian Gulf. Thus, few precipitation events that occur during boreal winter are important for society and ecology of this region. The mechanisms of winter precipitation over the Gulf are not well understood, partly due to a lack of long term meteorological observation. Here we explore the dynamics of Arabian Gulf winter precipitation events using available observations and a high resolution atmospheric model simulation. Our analyses show that the northern Gulf receives about six times more precipitation than the southern Gulf. Often, the southern Gulf precipitation forms as a result of downstream development of northern Gulf disturbance. The southward movement of northern Gulf disturbances is influenced by the location of subtropical jet. The probability of a northern Gulf precipitating weather system to move south is higher when the subtropical jet is located equatorward of 30°N. The equatorward position of jet favors the penetration of mid-latitude weather systems over the Arabian Peninsula, which in turn pushes the Arabian anticyclone eastward and triggers moisture transport from the Arabian Sea that is essential for southern Gulf precipitation events.

  8. Evaluation and Improvement of Cloud and Convective Parameterizations from Analyses of ARM Observations and Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Del Genio, Anthony D. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)

    2016-03-11

    Over this period the PI and his performed a broad range of data analysis, model evaluation, and model improvement studies using ARM data. These included cloud regimes in the TWP and their evolution over the MJO; M-PACE IOP SCM-CRM intercomparisons; simulations of convective updraft strength and depth during TWP-ICE; evaluation of convective entrainment parameterizations using TWP-ICE simulations; evaluation of GISS GCM cloud behavior vs. long-term SGP cloud statistics; classification of aerosol semi-direct effects on cloud cover; depolarization lidar constraints on cloud phase; preferred states of the winter Arctic atmosphere, surface, and sub-surface; sensitivity of convection to tropospheric humidity; constraints on the parameterization of mesoscale organization from TWP-ICE WRF simulations; updraft and downdraft properties in TWP-ICE simulated convection; insights from long-term ARM records at Manus and Nauru.

  9. Temperature decrease in the extratropics of South America in response to a tropical forcing during the austral winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, G.V. [Centro de Investigaciones Cientificas y Transferencia de Tecnologia a la Produccion (CICYTTP-CONICET), Diamante, Entre Rios (Argentina)

    2010-07-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamic mechanisms that create favorable conditions for the occurrence of frosts that affect large areas of Argentina and are denominated generalized frosts (GF). The hemispheric teleconnection patterns linked to extreme cold events affecting central and northeastern Argentina during winter are identified. The objective is to determine whether the conditions found in previous studies for the composite of winters with extreme (maximum and minimum) frequency of GF occurrence respond to typical characteristics of the austral winter or they are inherent to those particular winters. Taking the mean winter as basic state in the 1961-1990 period, a series of numerical experiments are run using a primitive equation model in which waves are excited with a thermal forcing. The positions of the thermal forcing are chosen according to observed convection anomalies in a basic state given by the austral winters with extreme frequency of GF occurrence. The wave trains excited by anomalous convection situated in specific regions may propagate across the Pacific Ocean and reach South America with the appropriate phase, creating the local favorable conditions for the occurrence of GF. However, the anomalous convection is, by itself, not sufficient since the response also depends on the basic state configuration. This is proved by placing the forcing over the region of significant anomalous convection for maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence and the response was very different in comparison to the mean winter. It is concluded that the conditions for a greater GF frequency of occurrence are inherent to these particular winters, so that such conditions are not present in the average winter. (orig.)

  10. Similarities and Improvements of GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR upon TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR in Global Precipitation Rate Estimation, Type Classification and Vertical Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyu Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Spaceborne precipitation radars are powerful tools used to acquire adequate and high-quality precipitation estimates with high spatial resolution for a variety of applications in hydrological research. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, which deployed the first spaceborne Ka- and Ku-dual frequency radar (DPR, was launched in February 2014 as the upgraded successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. This study matches the swath data of TRMM PR and GPM DPR Level 2 products during their overlapping periods at the global scale to investigate their similarities and DPR’s improvements concerning precipitation amount estimation and type classification of GPM DPR over TRMM PR. Results show that PR and DPR agree very well with each other in the global distribution of precipitation, while DPR improves the detectability of precipitation events significantly, particularly for light precipitation. The occurrences of total precipitation and the light precipitation (rain rates < 1 mm/h detected by GPM DPR are ~1.7 and ~2.53 times more than that of PR. With regard to type classification, the dual-frequency (Ka/Ku and single frequency (Ku methods performed similarly. In both inner (the central 25 beams and outer swaths (1–12 beams and 38–49 beams of DPR, the results are consistent. GPM DPR improves precipitation type classification remarkably, reducing the misclassification of clouds and noise signals as precipitation type “other” from 10.14% of TRMM PR to 0.5%. Generally, GPM DPR exhibits the same type division for around 82.89% (71.02% of stratiform (convective precipitation events recognized by TRMM PR. With regard to the freezing level height and bright band (BB height, both radars correspond with each other very well, contributing to the consistency in stratiform precipitation classification. Both heights show clear latitudinal dependence. Results in this study shall contribute to future development of spaceborne

  11. A test for Improvement of high resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for localized heavy precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Hoon; Roh, Joon-Woo; Park, Jeong-Gyun

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimation of precipitation is one of the most difficult and significant tasks in the area of weather diagnostic and forecasting. In the Korean Peninsula, heavy precipitations are caused by various physical mechanisms, which are affected by shortwave trough, quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, and a direct/indirect effect of tropical cyclone. In addition to, various geographical and topographical elements make production of temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation is very complicated. Especially, localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances. In weather radar data with high temporal and spatial resolution, accurate estimation of rain rate from radar reflectivity data is too difficult. Z-R relationship (Marshal and Palmer 1948) have adapted representatively. In addition to, several methods such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network, Fuzzy logic, Kriging were utilized in order to improve the accuracy of rain rate. These methods show the different quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and the performances of accuracy are different for heavy precipitation cases. In this study, in order to improve the accuracy of QPE for localized heavy precipitation, ensemble method for Z-R relationship and various techniques was tested. This QPE ensemble method was developed by a concept based on utilizing each advantage of precipitation calibration methods. The ensemble members were produced for a combination of different Z-R coefficient and calibration method.

  12. The convection patterns in microemulsions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korneta, W.; Lopez Quintela, M.A.; Fernandez Novoa, A.

    1991-07-01

    The Rayleigh-Benard convection in the microemulsion consisting of water (7.5%), cyclohexan (oil-61.7%) and diethylenglycolmonobutylether (surfactant-30.8%) is studied from the onset of convection to the phase separation. The five classes of convection patterns are observed and recorded on the video: localized travelling waves, travelling waves, travelling waves and localized steady rolls, steady rolls and steady polygons. The Fourier transforms and histograms of these patterns are presented. The origin of any pattern is discussed. The intermittent behaviour close to the phase separation was observed. Possible applications of the obtained results are suggested. (author). 6 refs, 4 figs

  13. Convection-enhanced water evaporation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Weon

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Water vapor is lighter than air; this can enhance water evaporation by triggering vapor convection but there is little evidence. We directly visualize evaporation of nanoliter (2 to 700 nL water droplets resting on silicon wafer in calm air using a high-resolution dual X-ray imaging method. Temporal evolutions of contact radius and contact angle reveal that evaporation rate linearly changes with surface area, indicating convective (instead of diffusive evaporation in nanoliter water droplets. This suggests that convection of water vapor would enhance water evaporation at nanoliter scales, for instance, on microdroplets or inside nanochannels.

  14. VHF/UHF radar observations of tropical mesoscale convective systems over southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Kishore Kumar

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Several campaigns have been carried out to study the convective systems over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, a tropical station in India, using VHF and UHF radars. The height-time sections of several convective systems are investigated in detail to study reflectivity, turbulence and vertical velocity structure. Structure and dynamics of the convective systems are the main objectives of these campaigns. The observed systems are classified into single- and multi-cell systems. It has been observed that most of the convective systems at this latitude are multi-cellular in nature. Simultaneous VHF and UHF radar observations are used to classify the observed precipitating systems as convective, intermediary and stratiform regions. Composite height profiles of vertical velocities in these regions were obtained and the same were compared with the profiles obtained at other geographical locations. These composite profiles of vertical velocity in the convective regions have shown their peaks in the mid troposphere, indicating that the maximum latent heat is being released at those heights. These profiles are very important for numerical simulations of the convective systems, which vary significantly from one geographical location to the other. Keywords. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (Mesoscale meteorology; Convective processes – Radio science (Remote sensing

  15. Collective Impacts of Orography and Soil Moisture on the Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imamovic, Adel; Schlemmer, Linda; Schär, Christoph

    2017-11-01

    Ensembles of convection-resolving simulations with a simplified land surface are conducted to dissect the isolated and combined impacts of soil moisture and orography on deep-convective precipitation under weak synoptic forcing. In particular, the deep-convective precipitation response to a uniform and a nonuniform soil moisture perturbation is investigated both in settings with and without orography. In the case of horizontally uniform perturbations, we find a consistently positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback, irrespective of the presence of low orography. On the other hand, a negative feedback emerges with localized perturbations: a dry soil heterogeneity substantially enhances rain amounts that scale linearly with the dryness of the soil, while a moist heterogeneity suppresses rain amounts. If the heterogeneity is located in a mountainous region, the relative importance of soil moisture heterogeneity decreases with increasing mountain height: A mountain 500 m in height is sufficient to neutralize the local soil moisture-precipitation feedback.

  16. Aerosol-cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds - Part 1: Aerosol perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miltenberger, Annette K.; Field, Paul R.; Hill, Adrian A.; Rosenberg, Phil; Shipway, Ben J.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Scovell, Robert; Blyth, Alan M.

    2018-03-01

    Changes induced by perturbed aerosol conditions in moderately deep mixed-phase convective clouds (cloud top height ˜ 5 km) developing along sea-breeze convergence lines are investigated with high-resolution numerical model simulations. The simulations utilise the newly developed Cloud-AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) module for the Unified Model (UM), which allows for the representation of the two-way interaction between cloud and aerosol fields. Simulations are evaluated against observations collected during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) field campaign over the southwestern peninsula of the UK in 2013. The simulations compare favourably with observed thermodynamic profiles, cloud base cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), cloud depth, and radar reflectivity statistics. Including the modification of aerosol fields by cloud microphysical processes improves the correspondence with observed CDNC values and spatial variability, but reduces the agreement with observations for average cloud size and cloud top height. Accumulated precipitation is suppressed for higher-aerosol conditions before clouds become organised along the sea-breeze convergence lines. Changes in precipitation are smaller in simulations with aerosol processing. The precipitation suppression is due to less efficient precipitation production by warm-phase microphysics, consistent with parcel model predictions. In contrast, after convective cells organise along the sea-breeze convergence zone, accumulated precipitation increases with aerosol concentrations. Condensate production increases with the aerosol concentrations due to higher vertical velocities in the convective cores and higher cloud top heights. However, for the highest-aerosol scenarios, no further increase in the condensate production occurs, as clouds grow into an upper-level stable layer. In these cases, the reduced precipitation efficiency (PE) dominates the precipitation response and no further

  17. A new approach for assimilation of 2D radar precipitation in a high-resolution NWP model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsholm, Ulrik Smith; Petersen, Claus; Sass, Bent Hansen

    2015-01-01

    A new approach for assimilation of 2D precipitation in numerical weather prediction models is presented and tested in a case with convective, heavy precipitation. In the scheme a nudging term is added to the horizontal velocity divergence tendency equation. In case of underproduction of precipita...... precipitation rates. In this meteorological case, the usage of the nudging procedure has been shown to improve the prediction of heavy precipitation substantially....

  18. A substorm in midnight auroral precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Vorobjev

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available DMSP F7 spacecraft observations for the whole of 1986 were used to construct the empirical model of the midnight auroral precipitation during a substorm. The model includes the dynamics of different auroral precipitation boundaries and simultaneous changes in average electron precipitation energy and energy flux in different precipitation regions during all substorm phases, as well as the IMF and solar wind plasma signatures during a substorm. The analysis of the model shows a few important features of precipitation. (1 During the magnetic quietness and just before the beginning of the substorm expansive phase the latitudinal width of the auroral precipitation in the nightside sector is about 5 – 6° CGL, while that of the auroral oval is about 2 – 3° CGL during such periods. (2 For about 5 min before the substorm onset a decrease in the average precipitating electron energy in the equatorward part of auroral zone was observed simultaneously, with an increase in both the average electron energy and energy flux of electron precipitation in the poleward part of the auroral zone. (3 The isotropy boundary position in the beginning of the substorm expansive phase coincides well with the inner edge of the central plasma sheet. The analysis of interplanetary medium parameters shows that, on average, during the substorm development, the solar wind dynamic pressure was about 1.5 times that of the magnetic quietness period. Substorms occurred predominantly during the southward IMF orientation, suggesting that substorm onset often was not associated with the northern turn or decrease in the southward interplanetary Bz . The Northern Hemisphere’s substorms occurred generally during the positive interplanetary By in winter, and they were observed when the interplanetary By was negative in summer.Key words. Ionosphere (auroral ionosphere; particle precipitation – Magnetospheric physics (storm and substorm; magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction

  19. A two-component generalized extreme value distribution for precipitation frequency analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Buishand, A.; Roth, M.; Kyselý, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 534, March (2016), s. 659-668 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * two-component extreme value distribution * regional frequency analysis * convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169416000500

  20. Deep Convection in the Ocean

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McWilliams, James

    1999-01-01

    ... mechanism of water mass transformation. The resultant newly mixed deep water masses form a component of the thermohaline circulation, and hence it is essential to understand the deep convection process if the variability of the meridional...

  1. The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Mark P.; Petersen, Walt A.; Bansemer, Aaron; Bharadwaj, Nitin; Carey, Larry; Cecil, D. J.; Collis, Scott M.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Dolan, Brenda A.; Gerlach, J.; Giangrande, Scott; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Heymsfield, Gerald; Kollias, Pavlos; Lang, T. J.; Nesbitt, Steve W.; Neumann, Andrea; Poellot, M. R.; Rutledge, Steven A.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Tokay, Ali; Williams, C. R.; Wolff, D. B.; Xie, Shaocheng; Zipser, Edward J.

    2016-10-18

    The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), a field program jointly led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, was conducted in south-central Oklahoma during April – May 2011. MC3E science objectives were motivated by the need to improve understanding of midlatitude continental convective cloud system lifecycles, microphysics, and GPM precipitation retrieval algorithms. To achieve these objectives a multi-scale surface- and aircraft-based in situ and remote sensing observing strategy was employed. A variety of cloud and precipitation events were sampled during the MC3E, of which results from three deep convective events are highlighted. Vertical structure, air motions, precipitation drop-size distributions and ice properties were retrieved from multi-wavelength radar, profiler, and aircraft observations for an MCS on 11 May. Aircraft observations for another MCS observed on 20 May were used to test agreement between observed radar reflectivities and those calculated with forward-modeled reflectivity and microwave brightness temperatures using in situ particle size distributions and ice water content. Multi-platform observations of a supercell that occurred on 23 May allowed for an integrated analysis of kinematic and microphysical interactions. A core updraft of 25 ms-1 supported growth of hail and large rain drops. Data collected during the MC3E campaign is being used in a number of current and ongoing research projects and is available through the DOE ARM and NASA data archives.

  2. Evaluation of the QPF of convective flash flood rainfalls over the Czech territory in 2009

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zacharov, Petr, jr.; Řezáčová, Daniela; Brožková, R.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 131, Sep (2013), s. 95-107 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD11044; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P701 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Convective precipitation * Quantitative precipitation forecast * Forecast verification * Fractions skill score * SAL verification Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.421, year: 2013 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513000914#

  3. Convective heat flow probe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, James C.; Hardee, Harry C.; Striker, Richard P.

    1985-01-01

    A convective heat flow probe device is provided which measures heat flow and fluid flow magnitude in the formation surrounding a borehole. The probe comprises an elongate housing adapted to be lowered down into the borehole; a plurality of heaters extending along the probe for heating the formation surrounding the borehole; a plurality of temperature sensors arranged around the periphery of the probe for measuring the temperature of the surrounding formation after heating thereof by the heater elements. The temperature sensors and heater elements are mounted in a plurality of separate heater pads which are supported by the housing and which are adapted to be radially expanded into firm engagement with the walls of the borehole. The heat supplied by the heater elements and the temperatures measured by the temperature sensors are monitored and used in providing the desired measurements. The outer peripheral surfaces of the heater pads are configured as segments of a cylinder and form a full cylinder when taken together. A plurality of temperature sensors are located on each pad so as to extend along the length and across the width thereof, with a heating element being located in each pad beneath the temperature sensors. An expansion mechanism driven by a clamping motor provides expansion and retraction of the heater pads and expandable packer-type seals are provided along the probe above and below the heater pads.

  4. Convection-enhanced water evaporation

    OpenAIRE

    B. M. Weon; J. H. Je; C. Poulard

    2011-01-01

    Water vapor is lighter than air; this can enhance water evaporation by triggering vapor convection but there is little evidence. We directly visualize evaporation of nanoliter (2 to 700 nL) water droplets resting on silicon wafer in calm air using a high-resolution dual X-ray imaging method. Temporal evolutions of contact radius and contact angle reveal that evaporation rate linearly changes with surface area, indicating convective (instead of diffusive) evaporation in nanoliter water droplet...

  5. Anvil Clouds of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in Monsoon Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cetrone, J.; Houze, R. A., Jr.

    2009-01-01

    The anvil clouds of tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in West Africa, the Maritime Continent and the Bay of Bengal have been examined with TRMM and CloudSat satellite data and ARM ground-based radar observations. The anvils spreading out from the precipitating cores of MCSs are subdivided into thick, medium and thin portions. The thick portions of anvils show distinct differences from one climatological regime to another. In their upper portions, the thick anvils of West Africa MCSs have a broad, flat histogram of reflectivity, and a maximum of reflectivity in their lower portions. The reflectivity histogram of the Bay of Bengal thick anvils has a sharply peaked distribution of reflectivity at all altitudes with modal values that increase monotonically downward. The reflectivity histogram of the Maritime Continent thick anvils is intermediate between that of the West Africa and Bay of Bengal anvils, consistent with the fact this region comprises a mix of land and ocean influences. It is suggested that the difference between the statistics of the continental and oceanic anvils is related to some combination of two factors: (1) the West African anvils tend to be closely tied to the convective regions of MCSs while the oceanic anvils are more likely to be extending outward from large stratiform precipitation areas of MCSs, and (2) the West African MCSs result from greater buoyancy, so that the convective cells are more likely to produce graupel particles and detrain them into anvils

  6. The variable nature of convection in the tropics and subtropics: A legacy of 16?years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite

    OpenAIRE

    Houze, Robert A.; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Zuluaga, Manuel D.; Brodzik, Stella R.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract For over 16?years, the Precipitation Radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite detected the three?dimensional structure of significantly precipitating clouds in the tropics and subtropics. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies using the TRMM radar data to present a global picture of the variation of convection throughout low latitudes. The multiyear data set shows convection varying not only in amount but also in its very nature across the oceans, contine...

  7. An integrated view of the 1987 Australian monsoon and its mesoscale convective systems. II - Vertical structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapes, Brian; Houze, Robert A., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The vertical structure of monsoon thermal forcing by precipitating convection is diagnosed in terms of horizontal divergence. Airborne Doppler-radar divergence profiles from nine diverse mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are presented. The MCSs consisted of multicellular convective elements which in time gave rise to areas of stratiform precipitation. Each of the three basic building blocks of the MCSs - convective, intermediary, and stratiform precipitation areas - has a consistent, characteristic divergence profile. Convective areas have low-level convergence, with its peak at 2-4 km altitude, and divergence above 6 km. Intermediary areas have convergence aloft, peaked near 10 km, feeding into mean ascent high in the upper troposphere. Stratiform areas have mid-level convergence, indicating a mesoscale downdraught below the melting level, and a mesoscale updraught aloft. Rawinsonde composite divergence profiles agree with the Doppler data in at least one important respect: the lower-tropospheric convergence into the MCSs peaks 2-4-km above the surface. Rawinsonde vorticity profiles show that monsoonal tropical cyclones spin-up at these elevated levels first, then later descend to the surface. Rawinsonde observations on a larger, continental scale demonstrate that at large horizontal scales only the 'gravest vertical mode' of MCS heating is felt, while the effects of shallower components of the heating (or divergence) profiles are trapped near the heating, as predicted by geostrophic adjustment theory.

  8. Decontamination and winter conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenild, C.; Tveten, U.

    1984-12-01

    The report deals with two decontamonation experiments under winter conditions. A snow-covered parking lot was contaminated, and the snow was subsequently removed using standard snow-moving equipment. The snow left behind was collected and the content of contaminant was determined. A non-radioactive contaminant was used. A decontamination factor exceeding 100 was obtained. Although the eksperimental conditions were close to ideal, it is reason to believe that extremely efficient removal of deposited materials on a snow surface is achivable. In another investigation, run-off from agricultural surface, contaminated while covered with snow, was measured A lycimeter was used in this experiment. A stable layer of ice and snow was allowed to form before contamination. The run-off water was collected at each thaw period until all snow and ice was gone. Cs-134 was used as contaminant. Roughly 30% of the Cs-134 with which the area was contaminated ran off with the melt water. Following a reactor accident situation, this would have given a corresponding reduction in the long term doses. Both of these experiments show that consequence calculation assumptions, as they are currently applied to large accident assessment, tend to overestimate the consequences resulting from accidents taking place under winter conditions

  9. Winter School Les Houches

    CERN Document Server

    Lannoo, Michel; Bastard, Gérald; Voos, Michel; Boccara, Nino

    1986-01-01

    The Winter School held in Les Houches on March 12-21, 1985 was devoted to Semiconductor Heterojunctions and Superlattices, a topic which is recognized as being now one of the most interesting and active fields in semiconductor physics. In fact, following the pioneering work of Esaki and Tsu in 1970, the study of these two-dimensional semiconductor heterostructures has developed rapidly, both from the point of view of basic physics and of applications. For instance, modulation-doped heterojunctions are nowadays currently used to investigate the quantum Hall effect and to make very fast transistors. This book contains the lectures presented at this Winter School, showing in particular that many aspects of semiconductor heterojunctions and super­ lattices were treated, extending from the fabrication of these two-dimensional systems to their basic properties and applications in micro-and opto-electron­ ics. Among the subjects which were covered, one can quote as examples: molecular beam epitaxy and metallorgani...

  10. Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

  11. The role of mesoscale convective systems in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and its seasonality over sub-Saharan Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiran; Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the role of MCSs in the total rainfall distribution as a function of season from a climatological perspective (1998-2014) over sub-Saharan northern Africa and examines how the diurnal cycle of rainfall changes with season. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to evaluate the climatology. The percentages of the full TRMM precipitation delivered by MCSs have meridional structures in spring, fall and winter, ranging from 0 to 80% across sub-Saharan northern Africa, while the percentages are homogenous in summer (> 80%). The diurnal cycles of MCS-associated precipitation coincide with the full TRMM rainfall. Attributes of MCSs, including size, count, and intensity, vary synchronously with the diurnal cycle of rainfall. The diurnal peaks are classified into three categories: single afternoon peak, continuous afternoon peak, and nocturnal peak. Single afternoon peaks dominate in spring and fall while continuous afternoon and nocturnal peaks are more common in summer, indicating the seasonality of the diurnal cycle. The continuous afternoon peak combines rainfall from two system types—one locally-generated and one propagating. The seasonality of the diurnal cycle is related to the seasonality of MCS lifetimes, and propagation speeds and directions. The moisture component of the MSE profile contributes to the instability most in summer when convection is more frequent. Low-level temperature, which is related to surface warming and sensible heat fluxes, influences the instability more during winter and spring.

  12. Measurements for winter road maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Riehm, Mats

    2012-01-01

    Winter road maintenance activities are crucial for maintaining the accessibility and traffic safety of the road network at northerly latitudes during winter. Common winter road maintenance activities include snow ploughing and the use of anti-icing agents (e.g. road salt, NaCl). Since the local weather is decisive in creating an increased risk of slippery conditions, understanding the link between local weather and conditions at the road surface is critically important. Sensors are commonly i...

  13. Assessment of mesoscale convective systems using IR brightness temperature in the southwest of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafati, Somayeh; Karimi, Mostafa

    2017-07-01

    In this research, the spatial and temporal distribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems was assessed in the southwest of Iran using Global merged satellite IR brightness temperature (acquired from Meteosat, GOES, and GMS geostationary satellites) and synoptic station data. Event days were selected using a set of storm reports and precipitation criteria. The following criteria are used to determine the days with occurrence of convective systems: (1) at least one station reported 6-h precipitation exceeding 10 mm and (2) at least three stations reported phenomena related to convection (thunderstorm, lightning, and shower). MCSs were detected based on brightness temperature, maximum areal extent, and duration thresholds (228 K, 10,000 km2, and 3 h, respectively). An MCS occurrence classification system is developed based on mean sea level, 850 and 500 hPa pressure patterns.

  14. Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madlen Fischer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

  15. Large-Eddy Simulations of Tropical Convective Systems, the Boundary Layer, and Upper Ocean Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    ship observations of SST, solar radiation , and zonal wind in situ, from rawinsonde atmospheric profiles, and radar precipitation statistics. Large...Figure 1. SST warms and cools on intraseasonal time scales, forced by variations in solar flux and evaporation related to convective anomalies...resolution case. Figure 4. Horizontally averaged cloud water content from the low resolution simulation (top) and surface shortwave

  16. User's manual for the convective cloud module version 1. 0. [RADM; RSM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, B.C.

    1987-04-01

    This manual describes a convective cloud model and provide guidance for users. The convective cloud model is assumed to provide a time-averaged distribution of data from a population of precipitating, convective clouds in different stages of development. This model was designed to characterize a scavenging environment using meteorological conditions provided by a regional-scale meteorological code. This meteorological code explicitly simulates processes related to cloud microphysics. The cloud model predicts the vertical profiles of condensed water that correspond to specified surface precipitation rates and cloud top and freezing level heights. The cloud model also predicts profiles of various microphysical constituents, such as fall velocity and accretion rates that exist in conjunction with the condensed water profiles. Descriptions of routines written to solve mass conservation equations for air, cloud, and precipitation water are presented. The solutions are appropriate for precipitating convective clouds with a horizontal spacing on the order of 10 km. Routines are also provided for generating tables of profiles for many discrete input conditions. Once tables are generated, additional routines may be used to interpolate between the tables and to rapidly determine values at levels other than the discrete input levels.

  17. Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Pan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms−1 km−1 and 3.2 ms−1 km−1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.

  18. Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Pan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms−1 km−1 and 3.2 ms−1 km−1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.

  19. Influence of different convection parameterisations in a GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tost

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In global models of the atmosphere convection is parameterised, since the typical scale of this process is smaller than the model resolution. Here we address some of the uncertainties arising from the selection of different algorithms to simulate this process. Four different parameterisations for atmospheric convection, all used in state-of-the-art models, are implemented in the model system ECHAM5/MESSy for a consistent inter-comparison and evaluation against observations. Relatively large differences are found in the simulated precipitation patterns, whereas simulated water vapour columns distributions are quite similar and close to observations. The effects on the hydrological cycle and on the simulated meteorological conditions are discussed.

  20. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-11-29

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the United States and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. 27 figs, 12 tabs.

  1. Tropical deep convective cloud morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igel, Matthew R.

    A cloud-object partitioning algorithm is developed. It takes contiguous CloudSat cloudy regions and identifies various length scales of deep convective clouds from a tropical, oceanic subset of data. The methodology identifies a level above which anvil characteristics become important by analyzing the cloud object shape. Below this level in what is termed the pedestal region, convective cores are identified based on reflectivity maxima. Identifying these regions allows for the assessment of length scales of the anvil and pedestal of the deep convective clouds. Cloud objects are also appended with certain environmental quantities from the ECMWF reanalysis. Simple geospatial and temporal assessments show that the cloud object technique agrees with standard observations of local frequency of deep-convective cloudiness. Additionally, the nature of cloud volume scale populations is investigated. Deep convection is seen to exhibit power-law scaling. It is suggested that this scaling has implications for the continuous, scale invariant, and random nature of the physics controlling tropical deep convection and therefore on the potentially unphysical nature of contemporary convective parameterizations. Deep-convective clouds over tropical oceans play important roles in Earth's climate system. The response of tropical, deep convective clouds to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated using this new data set. Several previously proposed feedbacks are examined: the FAT hypothesis, the Iris hypothesis, and the Thermostat hypothesis. When the data are analyzed per cloud object, each hypothesis is broadly found to correctly predict cloud behavior in nature, although it appears that the FAT hypothesis needs a slight modification to allow for cooling cloud top temperatures with increasing SSTs. A new response that shows that the base temperature of deep convective anvils remains approximately constant with increasing SSTs is introduced. These cloud-climate feedbacks are

  2. The role of deep convection on the dynamics of the North Atlantic phytoplankton community

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindemann, Christian

    In recent years observations of a significant winter phytoplankton stock and blooms in the absence of stratification have challenged the classical picture of phytoplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic. To explain phytoplankton winter survival, it has been suggested that deep convection can...... was found to be only of lesser importance, respiration had a large impact on phytoplankton survival during during winter and especially during the onset of stratification. In difference to the non-hydrostatic model coupled to the IBM, ecosystem models are hydrostatic and are therefore not able to capture......, in particular during the onset of thermal stratification in spring. The finding of this thesis have important implication for our understanding of carbon sequestration during winter and for the role of the North Atlantic as a carbon sink, in particular in a scenario of climate change...

  3. Stamena winter wheat variety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mišić Todor

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Stamena is a winter wheat variety developed at the Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops in Novi Sad, Yugoslavia. It was released by the Federal Commission for varietals Approval in 1999. Stamena was developed by crossing genetically divergent and highly productive parents Lasta and Rodna (Breeders: T. Mišić. N. Mladenov, Z. Jerković and R. Jevtić. Spike is white, smooth, awn less, medium compact with 18-21 spike lets. The grain is vitreous and dark red (Triticum aestivum L. ssp. vulgar e var. lutescens. Stamena is a medium early variety, 1 day earlier than Partizanka and 3 days earlier than Jugoslavija (Table 4. It has excellent resistance to winterkilling, as in very winter hardy Partizanka. The average stem height is 78 cm, with a good resistance to lodging. Stamena has field resistance to leaf rust (Pucce, recondita tritict, horizontal resistance, which is the type of resistance that modern wheat breeding is interested in. The resistance to stem rust (Pucce, graminis tritict is good and to powdery mildew (Erysiphegraminis tritici very good. The 1000 grain mass is about 32 g and volume grain mass 81.3 kg/hi. (Table 2. Stamena is classified in the subgroup A-l. It has excellent milling and baking quality and it belong to the 1st technological group (quality enhancer. The quantity of dry gluten is about 9%. The variety Stamena is a very productive, with the genetic potential for grain above 11 t/ha suitable for growing on fertile and less fertile soils. It has started to be grown commercially in 2000.

  4. Evaluation of tropical cloud and precipitation statistics of CAM3 using CloudSat and CALIPSO data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Y; Klein, S; Boyle, J; Mace, G G

    2008-11-20

    The combined CloudSat and CALIPSO satellite observations provide the first simultaneous measurements of cloud and precipitation vertical structure, and are used to examine the representation of tropical clouds and precipitation in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). A simulator package utilizing a model-to-satellite approach facilitates comparison of model simulations to observations, and a revised clustering method is used to sort the subgrid-scale patterns of clouds and precipitation into principal cloud regimes. Results from weather forecasts performed with CAM3 suggest that the model underestimates the horizontal extent of low and mid-level clouds in subsidence regions, but overestimates that of high clouds in ascending regions. CAM3 strongly overestimates the frequency of occurrence of the deep convection with heavy precipitation regime, but underestimates the horizontal extent of clouds and precipitation at low and middle levels when this regime occurs. This suggests that the model overestimates convective precipitation and underestimates stratiform precipitation consistent with a previous study that used only precipitation observations. Tropical cloud regimes are also evaluated in a different version of the model, CAM3.5, which uses a highly entraining plume in the parameterization of deep convection. While the frequency of occurrence of the deep convection with heavy precipitation regime from CAM3.5 forecasts decreases, the incidence of the low clouds with precipitation and congestus regimes increases. As a result, the parameterization change does not reduce the frequency of precipitating convection that is far too high relative to observations. For both versions of CAM, clouds and precipitation are overly reflective at the frequency of the CloudSat radar and thin clouds that could be detected by the lidar only are underestimated.

  5. Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foroutan, Hosein; Pleim, Jonathan E.

    2017-09-01

    Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a single mean value for wind speed per grid box, i.e., not accounting for subgrid wind variability and (2) using convective parametrizations that poorly simulate cold pool outflows. This study aims to improve the simulation of convective dust storms by tackling these two issues. Specifically, we incorporate a probability distribution function for surface wind in each grid box to account for subgrid wind variability due to dry and moist convection. Furthermore, we use lightning assimilation to increase the accuracy of the convective parameterization and simulated cold pool outflows. This updated model framework is used to simulate a massive convective dust storm that hit Phoenix, AZ, on 6 July 2011. The results show that lightning assimilation provides a more realistic simulation of precipitation features, including timing and location, and the resulting cold pool outflows that generated the dust storm. When those results are combined with a dust model that accounts for subgrid wind variability, the prediction of dust uplift and concentrations are considerably improved compared to the default model results. This modeling framework could potentially improve the simulation of convective dust storms in global models, regional climate simulations, and retrospective air quality studies.

  6. Atmospheric Convective Organization: Self-Organized Criticality or Homeostasis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, Jun-Ichi

    2015-04-01

    Atmospheric convection has a tendency organized on a hierarchy of scales ranging from the mesoscale to the planetary scales, with the latter especially manifested by the Madden-Julian oscillation. The present talk examines two major possible mechanisms of self-organization identified in wider literature from a phenomenological thermodynamic point of view by analysing a planetary-scale cloud-resolving model simulation. The first mechanism is self-organized criticality. A saturation tendency of precipitation rate with the increasing column-integrated water, reminiscence of critical phenomena, indicates self-organized criticality. The second is a self-regulation mechanism that is known as homeostasis in biology. A thermodynamic argument suggests that such self-regulation maintains the column-integrated water below a threshold by increasing the precipitation rate. Previous analyses of both observational data as well as cloud-resolving model (CRM) experiments give mixed results. A satellite data analysis suggests self-organized criticality. Some observational data as well as CRM experiments support homeostasis. Other analyses point to a combination of these two interpretations. In this study, a CRM experiment over a planetary-scale domain with a constant sea-surface temperature is analyzed. This analysis shows that the relation between the column-integrated total water and precipitation suggests self-organized criticality, whereas the one between the column-integrated water vapor and precipitation suggests homeostasis. The concurrent presence of these two mechanisms are further elaborated by detailed statistical and budget analyses. These statistics are scale invariant, reflecting a spatial scaling of precipitation processes. These self-organization mechanisms are most likely be best theoretically understood by the energy cycle of the convective systems consisting of the kinetic energy and the cloud-work function. The author has already investigated the behavior of this

  7. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  8. Optimal Cross Hedging Winter Canola

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Seon-Woong; Brorsen, B. Wade; Yoon, Byung-Sam

    2014-01-01

    Winter canola in the southern Great Plains has shown large price fluctuations and there have been questions about which futures market could be used to reduce price risk. Our results indicate that the optimal futures contract to cross hedge winter canola is soybean oil futures.

  9. Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

    2016-02-01

    Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

  10. Vertical overlap of probability density functions of cloud and precipitation hydrometeors: CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION PDF OVERLAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ovchinnikov, Mikhail [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon Republic of Korea; Larson, Vincent E. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee Wisconsin USA; Wong, May [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Thayer-Calder, Katherine [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-11-05

    Coarse-resolution climate models increasingly rely on probability density functions (PDFs) to represent subgrid-scale variability of prognostic variables. While PDFs characterize the horizontal variability, a separate treatment is needed to account for the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation. When sub-columns are drawn from these PDFs for microphysics or radiation parameterizations, appropriate vertical correlations must be enforced via PDF overlap specifications. This study evaluates the representation of PDF overlap in the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) employed in the assumed PDF turbulence and cloud scheme called the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB). PDF overlap in CLUBB-SILHS simulations of continental and tropical oceanic deep convection is compared with overlap of PDF of various microphysics variables in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of the same cases that explicitly predict the 3D structure of cloud and precipitation fields. CRM results show that PDF overlap varies significantly between different hydrometeor types, as well as between PDFs of mass and number mixing ratios for each species, - a distinction that the current SILHS implementation does not make. In CRM simulations that explicitly resolve cloud and precipitation structures, faster falling species, such as rain and graupel, exhibit significantly higher coherence in their vertical distributions than slow falling cloud liquid and ice. These results suggest that to improve the overlap treatment in the sub-column generator, the PDF correlations need to depend on hydrometeor properties, such as fall speeds, in addition to the currently implemented dependency on the turbulent convective length scale.

  11. ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leung, L. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Prather, K. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ralph, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Rosenfeld, D. [The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel); Spackman, R. [Science and Technology Corporation (STC), Hampton, VA (United States); DeMott, P. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Fairall, C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hagos, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hughes, M. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Long, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rutledge, S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Waliser, D. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States); Wang, H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-09-01

    The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associated with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.

  12. Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

    2014-01-01

    Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water

  13. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

    2006-01-01

    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  14. Importance of depth and intensity of convection on the isotopic composition of water vapor as seen from IASI and TES δD observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacour, Jean-Lionel; Risi, Camille; Worden, John; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-François

    2018-01-01

    We use tropical observations of the water vapor isotopic composition, derived from IASI and TES spaceborne measurements, to show that the isotopic composition of water vapor in the free troposphere is sensitive to both the depth and the intensity of convection. We find that for any given precipitation intensity, vapor associated with deep convection is isotopically depleted relative to vapor associated with shallow convection. The intensity of precipitation also plays a role as for any given depth of convection, the relative enrichment of water vapor decreases as the intensity of precipitation increases. Shallow convection, via the uplifting of enriched boundary layer air into the free troposphere and the convective detrainment, enriches the free troposphere. In contrast, deep convection is associated with processes that deplete the water vapor in the free troposphere, such as rain re-evaporation. The results of this study allow for a better identification of the parameters controlling the isotopic composition of the free troposphere and indicate that the isotopic composition of water vapor can be used to evaluate the relative contributions of shallow and deep convection in global models.

  15. Convective effects on directional solidification of a simulated metal alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccay, T. D.; Mccay, M. H.; Lowry, S. A.; Smith, L. M.

    1988-01-01

    The first significant results of a ground-based experimental program which supports a low gravity space processing Spacelab experiment are reported. The phenomena which precipitate pluming and thus freckling in a metal alloy analog (ammonium chloride and water) are studied in detail and the sequential events leading to massive channeling and convection are optically documented. The pluming is shown to be other than a random burst of unstable fluid from a preferred channel but rather a natural occurrence resulting from a fundamental (Rayleigh-Benard) fluid dynamic instability at the density inversion interface. This extrapolates to critical size parameters appropriate to processing of actual metal alloys.

  16. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.R. Archer

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the flow in the River Indus from its upper mountain basin is derived from melting snow and glaciers. Climatic variability and change of both precipitation and energy inputs will, therefore, affect rural livelihoods at both a local and a regional scale through effects on summer runoff in the River Indus. Spatial variation in precipitation has been investigated by correlation and regression analysis of long-period records. There is a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation at stations over the entire region, so that, for practical forecasting of summer runoff in some basins, a single valley-floor precipitation station can be used In contrast, spatial relationships in seasonal precipitation are weaker in summer and sometimes significantly negative between stations north and south of the Himalayan divide. Although analysis of long datasets of precipitation from 1895 shows no significant trend, from 1961–1999 there are statistically significant increases in winter, in summer and in the annual precipitation at several stations. Preliminary analysis has identified a significant positive correlation between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and winter precipitation in the Karakoram and a negative correlation between NAO and summer rainfall at some stations. Keywords: upper Indus basin, climate change, time series analysis, spatial correlation, teleconnections

  17. A Method for Obtaining High Frequency, Global, IR-Based Convective Cloud Tops for Studies of the TTL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Leonhard; Ueyama, Rei; Jensen, Eric; Schoeberl, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Models of varying complexity that simulate water vapor and clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) show that including convection directly is essential to properly simulating the water vapor and cloud distribution. In boreal winter, for example, simulations without convection yield a water vapor distribution that is too uniform with longitude, as well as minimal cloud distributions. Two things are important for convective simulations. First, it is important to get the convective cloud top potential temperature correctly, since unrealistically high values (reaching above the cold point tropopause too frequently) will cause excessive hydration of the stratosphere. Second, one must capture the time variation as well, since hydration by convection depends on the local relative humidity (temperature), which has substantial variation on synoptic time scales in the TTL. This paper describes a method for obtaining high frequency (3-hourly) global convective cloud top distributions which can be used in trajectory models. The method uses rainfall thresholds, standard IR brightness temperatures, meteorological temperature analyses, and physically realistic and documented corrections IR brightness temperature corrections to derive cloud top altitudes and potential temperatures. The cloud top altitudes compare well with combined CLOUDSAT and CALIPSO data, both in time-averaged overall vertical and horizontal distributions and in individual cases (correlations of .65-.7). An important finding is that there is significant uncertainty (nearly .5 km) in evaluating the statistical distribution of convective cloud tops even using lidar. Deep convection whose tops are in regions of high relative humidity (such as much of the TTL), will cause clouds to form above the actual convection. It is often difficult to distinguish these clouds from the actual convective cloud due to the uncertainties of evaluating ice water content from lidar measurements. Comparison with models show that

  18. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Precipitation Processing System (PPS) GPM Mission Gridded Text Products Provide Surface Precipitation Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Erich Franz; Kelley, O.; Kummerow, C.; Huffman, G.; Olson, W.; Kwiatkowski, J.

    2015-01-01

    In February 2015, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core satellite will complete its first year in space. The core satellite carries a conically scanning microwave imager called the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), which also has 166 GHz and 183 GHz frequency channels. The GPM core satellite also carries a dual frequency radar (DPR) which operates at Ku frequency, similar to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, and a new Ka frequency. The precipitation processing system (PPS) is producing swath-based instantaneous precipitation retrievals from GMI, both radars including a dual-frequency product, and a combined GMIDPR precipitation retrieval. These level 2 products are written in the HDF5 format and have many additional parameters beyond surface precipitation that are organized into appropriate groups. While these retrieval algorithms were developed prior to launch and are not optimal, these algorithms are producing very creditable retrievals. It is appropriate for a wide group of users to have access to the GPM retrievals. However, for researchers requiring only surface precipitation, these L2 swath products can appear to be very intimidating and they certainly do contain many more variables than the average researcher needs. Some researchers desire only surface retrievals stored in a simple easily accessible format. In response, PPS has begun to produce gridded text based products that contain just the most widely used variables for each instrument (surface rainfall rate, fraction liquid, fraction convective) in a single line for each grid box that contains one or more observations.This paper will describe the gridded data products that are being produced and provide an overview of their content. Currently two types of gridded products are being produced: (1) surface precipitation retrievals from the core satellite instruments GMI, DPR, and combined GMIDPR (2) surface precipitation retrievals for the partner constellation

  19. Differential response of winter cooling on biological production in the northeastern Arabian Sea and northwestern Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jyothibabu, R.; Maheswaran, P.A.; Madhu, N.V.; Asharaf, T.T.M.; Gerson, V.J.; Haridas, P.; Venugopal, P.; Revichandran, C.; Nair, K.K.C.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.

    biomass 71 mmolC m sup(-2), microzooplankton biomass 10.6 mmolC m sup(-2). In the AS, winter cooling assisted by the high surface salinity (is greater than 36) resulted in densification of surface layers, convective mixing and deepening of the mixed layer...

  20. Impact of a simple parameterization of convective gravity-wave drag in a stratosphere-troposphere general circulation model and its sensitivity to vertical resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bossuet

    1998-02-01

    Full Text Available Systematic westerly biases in the southern hemisphere wintertime flow and easterly equatorial biases are experienced in the Météo-France climate model. These biases are found to be much reduced when a simple parameterization is introduced to take into account the vertical momentum transfer through the gravity waves excited by deep convection. These waves are quasi-stationary in the frame of reference moving with convection and they propagate vertically to higher levels in the atmosphere, where they may exert a significant deceleration of the mean flow at levels where dissipation occurs. Sixty-day experiments have been performed from a multiyear simulation with the standard 31 levels for a summer and a winter month, and with a T42 horizontal resolution. The impact of this parameterization on the integration of the model is found to be generally positive, with a significant deceleration in the westerly stratospheric jet and with a reduction of the easterly equatorial bias. The sensitivity of the Météo-France climate model to vertical resolution is also investigated by increasing the number of vertical levels, without moving the top of the model. The vertical resolution is increased up to 41 levels, using two kinds of level distribution. For the first, the increase in vertical resolution concerns especially the troposphere (with 22 levels in the troposphere, and the second treats the whole atmosphere in a homogeneous way (with 15 levels in the troposphere; the standard version of 31 levels has 10 levels in the troposphere. A comparison is made between the dynamical aspects of the simulations. The zonal wind and precipitation are presented and compared for each resolution. A positive impact is found with the finer tropospheric resolution on the precipitation in the mid-latitudes and on the westerly stratospheric jet, but the general impact on the model climate is weak, the physical parameterizations used appear to be mostly independent to the

  1. Impact of a simple parameterization of convective gravity-wave drag in a stratosphere-troposphere general circulation model and its sensitivity to vertical resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bossuet

    Full Text Available Systematic westerly biases in the southern hemisphere wintertime flow and easterly equatorial biases are experienced in the Météo-France climate model. These biases are found to be much reduced when a simple parameterization is introduced to take into account the vertical momentum transfer through the gravity waves excited by deep convection. These waves are quasi-stationary in the frame of reference moving with convection and they propagate vertically to higher levels in the atmosphere, where they may exert a significant deceleration of the mean flow at levels where dissipation occurs. Sixty-day experiments have been performed from a multiyear simulation with the standard 31 levels for a summer and a winter month, and with a T42 horizontal resolution. The impact of this parameterization on the integration of the model is found to be generally positive, with a significant deceleration in the westerly stratospheric jet and with a reduction of the easterly equatorial bias. The sensitivity of the Météo-France climate model to vertical resolution is also investigated by increasing the number of vertical levels, without moving the top of the model. The vertical resolution is increased up to 41 levels, using two kinds of level distribution. For the first, the increase in vertical resolution concerns especially the troposphere (with 22 levels in the troposphere, and the second treats the whole atmosphere in a homogeneous way (with 15 levels in the troposphere; the standard version of 31 levels has 10 levels in the troposphere. A comparison is made between the dynamical aspects of the simulations. The zonal wind and precipitation are presented and compared for each resolution. A positive impact is found with the finer tropospheric resolution on the precipitation in the mid-latitudes and on the westerly stratospheric jet, but the general impact on the model climate is weak, the physical parameterizations used appear to be mostly independent to the

  2. Winter fuels report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-10-04

    The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and state and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks for all PADD's and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition, underground storage, and consumption for all PADD's; residential and wholesale pricing data for propane and heating oil for those states participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil price comparisons for the United States and selected cities; and US total heating degree-days by city. This report will be published weekly by the EIA starting the first week in October 1990 and will continue until the first week in April 1991. The data will also be available electronically after 5:00 p.m. on Thursday during the heating season through the EIA Electronic Publication System (EPUB). 12 tabs.

  3. Klaus Winter (1930 - 2015)

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    We learned with great sadness that Klaus Winter passed away on 9 February 2015, after a long illness.   Klaus was born in 1930 in Hamburg, where he obtained his diploma in physics in 1955. From 1955 to 1958 he held a scholarship at the Collège de France, where he received his doctorate in nuclear physics under the guidance of Francis Perrin. Klaus joined CERN in 1958, where he first participated in experiments on π+ and K0 decay properties at the PS, and later became the spokesperson of the CHOV Collaboration at the ISR. Starting in 1976, his work focused on experiments with the SPS neutrino beam. In 1984 he joined Ugo Amaldi to head the CHARM experiment, designed for detailed studies of the neutral current interactions of high-energy neutrinos, which had been discovered in 1973 using the Gargamelle bubble chamber at the PS. The unique feature of the detector was its target calorimeter, which used large Carrara marble plates as an absorber material. From 1984 to 1991, Klau...

  4. Relationships Between Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Holly S.; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2010-01-01

    Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20degN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

  5. ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF THE INTENSIFICATION CONVECTIVE DRYING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Gavrilenkov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Identified and analyzed the relationship of the intensity convective drying and air pollution emissions of heat. The ways to reduce the thermal pollution of the atmosphere at convective drying.

  6. The Australian Monsoon and its Mesoscale Convective Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapes, Brian E.

    1992-01-01

    The 1987 Australian monsoon was observed with satellites, rawinsondes, radar and aircraft. These data are presented, with theory filling the gaps, in illustration of its dynamics. The engine of the monsoon is its embedded mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Ten MCSs were explored with airborne Doppler radar. They all exhibited multicellular convection, in lines or arcs along the edges of cold pools, aging and evolving into areas of stratiform precipitation. This temporal evolution can be divided into three stages: "convective," "intermediary," and "stratiform." Doppler radar divergence profiles for each stage show remarkable consistency from one MCS to the next. Convective areas had low-level convergence, with its peak elevated off the surface, and divergence above ~8 km altitude. Intermediary areas had very little divergence through the lower troposphere, but strong convergence near 10 km altitude, associated with upper-tropospheric ascent. Stratiform areas had midlevel convergence between divergent layers. These divergence profiles indicate thermal forcing of the monsoon by the convection, in a form more useful than heating profiles. The response of the atmosphere to thermal forcing is considered in chapter 2. Thermal disturbances travel through a stratified fluid at a speed proportional to their vertical depth. A heat source with complex vertical structure excites disturbances ("buoyancy bores"), of many depths, that separate themselves out with distance from the heat source. Hence the deeper components of a heat source can be found at greater distances from the heat source, at any given moment and also in the limit of long time in a rotating or dissipative fluid. Low-level dynamical processes initiate deep convection within the active cyclonic areas of the monsoon trough, despite the warm core aloft and the consequent (small) decrease in CAPE. In 1987, four tropical cyclones were generated in the monsoon by this runaway positive feedback loop. Two forcing

  7. Analysis of Summertime Convective Initiation in Central Alabama Using the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Robert S.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2011-01-01

    During the summer months in the southeastern United States, convective initiation presents a frequent challenge to operational forecasters. Thunderstorm development has traditionally been referred to as random due to their disorganized, sporadic appearance and lack of atmospheric forcing. Horizontal variations in land surface characteristics such as soil moisture, soil type, land and vegetation cover could possibly be a focus mechanism for afternoon convection during the summer months. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) provides a stand-alone land surface modeling framework that incorporates these varying soil and vegetation properties, antecedent precipitation, and atmospheric forcing to represent the soil state at high resolution. The use of LIS as a diagnostic tool may help forecasters to identify boundaries in land surface characteristics that could correlate to favored regions of convection initiation. The NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) team has been collaborating with the National Weather Service Office in Birmingham, AL to help incorporate LIS products into their operational forecasting methods. This paper highlights selected convective case dates from summer 2009 when synoptic forcing was weak, and identifies any boundaries in land surface characteristics that may have contributed to convective initiation. The LIS output depicts the effects of increased sensible heat flux from urban areas on the development of convection, as well as convection along gradients in land surface characteristics and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These features may promote mesoscale circulations and/or feedback processes that can either enhance or inhibit convection. With this output previously unavailable to operational forecasters, LIS provides a new tool to forecasters in order to help eliminate the randomness of summertime convective initiation.

  8. Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi

    2018-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.

  9. Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter Safety Tips for Older Adults Expert Information from Healthcare Professionals Who Specialize in the Care of ... thick clothing. Think about getting your thermals! –Essential winter wears: hats, gloves or preferably mittens, winter coat, ...

  10. Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vitamin D Essential Outdoor Sun Safety Tips for Winter Winter sports enthusiasts are at increased risk for overexposure ... associated with sun exposure. "It's easy to associate winter with frostbite and windburn, but most people are ...

  11. Solar Surface Magneto-Convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert F. Stein

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We review the properties of solar magneto-convection in the top half of the convection zones scale heights (from 20 Mm below the visible surface to the surface, and then through the photosphere to the temperature minimum. Convection is a highly non-linear and non-local process, so it is best studied by numerical simulations. We focus on simulations that include sufficient detailed physics so that their results can be quantitatively compared with observations. The solar surface is covered with magnetic features with spatial sizes ranging from unobservably small to hundreds of megameters. Three orders of magnitude more magnetic flux emerges in the quiet Sun than emerges in active regions. In this review we focus mainly on the properties of the quiet Sun magnetic field. The Sun’s magnetic field is produced by dynamo action throughout the convection zone, primarily by stretching and twisting in the turbulent downflows. Diverging convective upflows and magnetic buoyancy carry magnetic flux toward the surface and sweep the field into the surrounding downflow lanes where the field is dragged downward. The result is a hierarchy of undulating magnetic Ω- and U-loops of different sizes. New magnetic flux first appears at the surface in a mixed polarity random pattern and then collects into isolated unipolar regions due to underlying larger scale magnetic structures. Rising magnetic structures are not coherent, but develop a filamentary structure. Emerging magnetic flux alters the convection properties, producing larger, darker granules. Strong field concentrations inhibit transverse plasma motions and, as a result, reduce convective heat transport toward the surface which cools. Being cooler, these magnetic field concentrations have a shorter scale height and become evacuated. The field becomes further compressed and can reach strengths in balance with the surrounding gas pressure. Because of their small internal density, photons escape from deeper in

  12. Stationary thermal convection in a viscoelastic ferrofluid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laroze, D., E-mail: david.laroze@gmail.co [Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research, D 55021 Mainz (Germany); Instituto de Alta Investigacion, Universidad de Tarapaca, Casilla 7D, Arica (Chile); Martinez-Mardones, J. [Instituto de Fisica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Casilla 4059, Valparaiso (Chile); Perez, L.M. [Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Av. Bernardo OHiggins 3363, Santiago (Chile); Rojas, R.G. [Instituto de Fisica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Casilla 4059, Valparaiso (Chile)

    2010-11-15

    We report theoretical and numerical results on convection for a magnetic fluid in a viscoelastic carrier liquid. We focus in the stationary convection for idealized boundary conditions. We obtain explicit expressions of convective thresholds in terms of the control parameters of the system. Close to bifurcation, the coefficients of the corresponding amplitude equation are determined analytically. Finally, the secondary instabilities are performed.

  13. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus and climate change: Importance of winter forage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thrine Moen Heggberget

    2002-06-01

    climate may cause an altitudinal upward shift in the production of mat-forming lichens in alpine, sub-arctic regions. This is due to an increased potential for lichen growth at high altitudes, combined with increased competition from taller-growing vascular plants at lower altitudes, where the biomass of Betula nana in particular will increase. Matforming lichens dominant on dry, windblown ridges are easily overgrazed at high reindeer densities. This has longterm effects due to lichens’ slow regeneration rate, but may also reduce competition from vascular plants in a long time perspective. Fires may act in a similar way in some forested areas. Accessibility of winter forage depends on plant biomass, snow depth and hardness; ice crusts or exceptionally deep snow may result in starvation and increased animal mortality. Calf recruitment appears to be low and/or highly variable where winter ranges are overgrazed and hard or deep snow is common. Population decline in several Rangifer tarandus spp. has been associated with snow-rich winters. Effects tend to be delayed and cumulative, particularly on calves. This is mainly ascribed to feeding conditions for young animals which later affect age at maturation. Global warming may increase the frequency of deep or hard snow on reindeer ranges in Norway, due to increased precipitation and more frequent mild periods in winter. We hypothesise that potential benefits from increased plant productivity due to global warming will be counteracted by shifts in the distribution of preferred lichen forage, reduction of the areas of suitable winter ranges, and generally reduced forage accessibility in winter.

  14. Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

  15. The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang M.

    2017-07-03

    Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during

  16. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  17. Isotopic composition of precipitation in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vreca, P.; Kanduc, T.; Zigon, S.; Trkov, Z.

    2005-01-01

    Three-years monitoring of isotopic composition (δ 18 O, δ 2 H and 3 H) in precipitation in Slovenia was performed to obtain temporal and spatial variability and to trace changes of isotopic composition in W-E direction. Monthly as well as daily variations in isotopic composition were compared with climate-related parameters such as local air temperature and precipitation amount. Large variations in isotopic composition were observed especially during extremely dry year 2003. Relationships of δ 2 H vs. δ 18 O are close to the Global Meteoric Water Line with deviations related to the influence of different air masses and evaporation. Tritium activity distribution shows typical seasonal variations with winter concentrations approaching the natural pre-bomb level. (author)

  18. Long-lived convective chimneys in the Greenland sea and their climatic role

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadhams, P.; Wilkinson, J. P.; Pavlov, V.; Hansen, E.; Budeus, G.

    2003-04-01

    The longest-lived convective chimney yet detected in the world ocean was first mapped in the central Greenland Sea (75degN, 0degE) in March 2001 and has been observed during the succeeding summer, winter and summer for a total of 18 months. It is 10 km in diameter and extends to a depth of 2500 m. It has remained relatively stationary during that period, acquiring a surface cap of low-salinity water in summer which was lost again in the following winter. The water in the chimney is in anticyclonic rotation, with an inner core rotating faster than an outer skirt. Hitherto, it was believed that Greenland Sea winter convection had been shutting down, reducing both in volume and depth (to 1200 m or less), and that this was due to a reduction in salt forcing from ice production in the region, the so-called Odden ice tongue. The consequences were expected to include a weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and a cooling impact on the climate of NW Europe. The recent chimney discovery makes it necessary to re-assess the role of the Greenland Sea in the climate of the northern North Atlantic region. A central question is that of the dynamics and structure of the chimney itself: how it formed, how water is convected through it, how long it will last, and how many other chimneys exist in the region. We attempt answers to these questions based on the most recent survey work.

  19. Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System to Ice Hydrometeors in Bulk Microphysical Parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Zhaoxia; Lin, Chao; Dong, Xiquan; Krueger, Steven K.

    2018-01-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their associated cloud properties are the important factors that influence the aviation activities, yet they present a forecasting challenge in numerical weather prediction. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of an MCS over the US Southern Great Plains to ice hydrometeors in bulk microphysics (MP) schemes has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the simulated structure, life cycle, cloud coverage, and precipitation of the convective system as well as its associated cold pools are sensitive to three selected MP schemes, namely, the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6, with the double-moment treatment of warm-rain only), and Morrison double-moment (MORR, with the double-moment representation of both warm-rain and ice) schemes. Compared with observations, the WRF simulation with WSM6 only produces a less organized convection structure with a short lifetime, while WDM6 can produce the structure and length of the MCS very well. Both simulations heavily underestimate the precipitation amount, the height of the radar echo top, and stratiform cloud fractions. With MORR, the model performs well in predicting the lifetime, cloud coverage, echo top, and precipitation amount of the convection. Overall results demonstrate the importance of including double-moment representation of ice hydrometeors along with warm-rain. Additional experiments are performed to further examine the role of ice hydrometeors in numerical simulations of the MCS. Results indicate that replacing graupel with hail in the MORR scheme improves the prediction of the convective structure, especially in the convective core region.

  20. Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST-induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Ritthik; Bordoni, Simona; Teixeira, João.

    2017-04-01

    Scaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (˜7% K-1) predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub-CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid-scale precipitation, unlike those in convective-scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large-scale and convective-scale motions.

  1. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  2. Magnetospheric convection and current system in the dayside polar cap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishida, A.; Mukai, T.; Tsuruda, K.; Hayakawa, H.

    1992-01-01

    Field and particle observations on EXOS-D (Akebono) have yielded new information on convection and current system in the dayside polar cap. Convection patterns are distinctly different depending upon whether IMF B z is northward or southward. The number of convection cells is two when B z is southward but four when B z is northward. Lobe cells in which plasma flows sunward in the region of open field lines are observed as a pair (of which one is in the dawn and the other in the dusk sector) for any polarity of IMF B y and B z . Ions in the keV range precipitate not only in the dayside cusp region but also along the sunward directed streamlines of the dawn and dusk lobe cells. These observations require reconsideration on the position and the extent of the reconnection region on the magnetopause. They also suggest that the magnetotail plays a vital role in some phenomena which have been ascribed to dayside magnetopause processes. We have not been able to find evidence to prove the presence of the viscous cell under southward IMF

  3. [Characteristics of chemical compositions of precipitation in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dong-Yan; Li, Xiu-Jinz; Chen, Yuan-Yuan; Zou, Ben-Dong; Lin, An-Guo

    2011-07-01

    Characteristics of chemical compositions of precipitation in Beijing were analyzed. The average value of pH was 5.19 from 2005 to 2009, showing stable characteristics of acidification with precipitation. The lowest annual average pH was 4. 87 in 2008 with the highest acidification frequency of 42% and 23% in Chegongzhuang and Daxing districts respectively. The inorganic ion concentrations declined in 5a, indicating an increasing improvement of air quality in Beijing. The concentrations of NH4+ and NO3- were found to increase and contributed to the high nitrogen amount in precipitation. Different seasons have influence on composition concentrations. Generally speaking, the ion concentrations in winter were higher that that in summer. SO4(2-) was the main factor responsible for the acidification of snow in winter, SO4(2-) and NO3- had similar contributions to the acidification of precipitation in summer. It was also found that the local pollutants of SO2, NO(x) and NH3 were major contributors to the acidification of precipitation in Beijing area, local geological conditions and long-distance transfers have important effects on the neutralization of the precipitation.

  4. The meaning of nuclear winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper the author reviews the history and origins of the basic ideas underlying nuclear winter; and findings and predictions of several groups regarding this topic. The author reviews some of the further developments and scientific analyses regarding nuclear winter since the initial announcements of 1983, touching on some of the revisions and controversies and trying to indicate the current status of the field

  5. A transilient matrix for moist convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romps, D.; Kuang, Z.

    2011-08-15

    A method is introduced for diagnosing a transilient matrix for moist convection. This transilient matrix quantifies the nonlocal transport of air by convective eddies: for every height z, it gives the distribution of starting heights z{prime} for the eddies that arrive at z. In a cloud-resolving simulation of deep convection, the transilient matrix shows that two-thirds of the subcloud air convecting into the free troposphere originates from within 100 m of the surface. This finding clarifies which initial height to use when calculating convective available potential energy from soundings of the tropical troposphere.

  6. Microwave Observations of Precipitation and the Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staelin, David H.; Rosenkranz, Philip W.

    2004-01-01

    This research effort had three elements devoted to improving satellite-derived passive microwave retrievals of precipitation rate: morphological rain-rate retrievals, warm rain retrievals, and extension of a study of geostationary satellite options. The morphological precipitation-rate retrieval method uses for the first time the morphological character of the observed storm microwave spectra. The basic concept involves: 1) retrieval of point rainfall rates using current algorithms, 2) using spatial feature vectors of the observations over segmented multi-pixel storms to estimate the integrated rainfall rate for that storm (cu m/s), and 3) normalization of the point rain-rate retrievals to ensure consistency with the storm-wide retrieval. This work is ongoing, but two key steps have been completed: development of a segmentation algorithm for defining spatial regions corresponding to single storms for purposes of estimation, and reduction of some of the data from NAST-M that will be used to support this research going forward. The warm rain retrieval method involved extension of Aquai/AIRS/AMSU/HSB algorithmic work on cloud water retrievals. The central concept involves the fact that passive microwave cloud water retrievals over approx. 0.4 mm are very likely associated with precipitation. Since glaciated precipitation is generally detected quite successfully using scattering signatures evident in the surface-blind 54- and 183-GHz bands, this new method complements the first by permitting precipitation retrievals of non-glaciated events. The method is most successful over ocean, but has detected non-glaciated convective cells over land, perhaps in their early formative stages. This work will require additional exploration and validation prior to publication. Passive microwave instrument configurations for use in geostationary orbit were studied. They employ parabolic reflectors between 2 and 4 meters in diameter, and frequencies up to approx.430 GHz; this

  7. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Convective and Stratiform Rainfall: Analysis and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A satellite infrared technique with passive microwave calibration has been developed for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall. The Convective-Stratiform Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), has been applied to 30 min interval GOES infrared data and aggregated over seasonal and yearly periods over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. For the period Jan-April 1999, analysis revealed significant effects of local circulations (river breeze, land/sea breeze, mountain/valley) on both the total rainfall and it's diurnal cycle. Results compared well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from TOGA radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates revealed that the convective rain constituted 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. Estimates of the diurnal cycle (both total rainfall and convective/stratiform) for an area encompassing the Amazon Basin (3 x 10(exp 6) sq km) were in phase with those from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, despite the latter's limited sampling. Results will be presented comparing the yearly (2000) diurnal cycle for large regions (including the Amazon Basin), and an intercomparison of January-March estimates for three years, (1999-2001). We hope to demonstrate the utility of using the TRMM PR observations as verification for infrared estimates of the diurnal cycle, and as verification of the apportionment of rainfall into convective and stratiform components.

  8. Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, R.; Wang, D.

    2017-12-01

    A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

  9. Seismic Constraints on Interior Solar Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasoge, Shravan M.; Duvall, Thomas L.; DeRosa, Marc L.

    2010-01-01

    We constrain the velocity spectral distribution of global-scale solar convective cells at depth using techniques of local helioseismology. We calibrate the sensitivity of helioseismic waves to large-scale convective cells in the interior by analyzing simulations of waves propagating through a velocity snapshot of global solar convection via methods of time-distance helioseismology. Applying identical analysis techniques to observations of the Sun, we are able to bound from above the magnitudes of solar convective cells as a function of spatial convective scale. We find that convection at a depth of r/R(solar) = 0.95 with spatial extent l < 30, where l is the spherical harmonic degree, comprise weak flow systems, on the order of 15 m/s or less. Convective features deeper than r/R(solar) = 0.95 are more difficult to image due to the rapidly decreasing sensitivity of helioseismic waves.

  10. Projected Response of Low-Level Convergence and Associated Precipitation to Greenhouse Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Evan; Jakob, Christian; Reeder, Michael J.

    2017-10-01

    The parameterization of convection in climate models is a large source of uncertainty in projecting future precipitation changes. Here an objective method to identify organized low-level convergence lines has been used to better understand how atmospheric convection is organized and projected to change, as low-level convergence plays an important role in the processes leading to precipitation. The frequency and strength of convergence lines over both ocean and land in current climate simulations is too low compared to reanalysis data. Projections show a further reduction in the frequency and strength of convergence lines over the midlatitudes. In the tropics, the largest changes in frequency are generally associated with shifts in major low-latitude convergence zones, consistent with changes in the precipitation. Further, examining convergence lines when in the presence or absence of precipitation results in large spatial contrasts, providing a better understanding of regional changes in terms of thermodynamic and dynamic effects.

  11. Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Vincendon

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

  12. Uncertainties in atmospheric chemistry modelling due to convection parameterisations and subsequent scavenging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tost

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Moist convection in global modelling contributes significantly to the transport of energy, momentum, water and trace gases and aerosols within the troposphere. Since convective clouds are on a scale too small to be resolved in a global model their effects have to be parameterised. However, the whole process of moist convection and especially its parameterisations are associated with uncertainties. In contrast to previous studies on the impact of convection on trace gases, which had commonly neglected the convective transport for some or all compounds, we investigate this issue by examining simulations with five different convection schemes. This permits an uncertainty analysis due to the process formulation, without the inconsistencies inherent in entirely neglecting deep convection or convective tracer transport for one or more tracers.

    Both the simulated mass fluxes and tracer distributions are analysed. Investigating the distributions of compounds with different characteristics, e.g., lifetime, chemical reactivity, solubility and source distributions, some differences can be attributed directly to the transport of these compounds, whereas others are more related to indirect effects, such as the transport of precursors, chemical reactivity in certain regions, and sink processes.

    The model simulation data are compared with the average regional profiles of several measurement campaigns, and in detail with two campaigns in fall and winter 2005 in Suriname and Australia, respectively.

    The shorter-lived a compound is, the larger the differences and consequently the uncertainty due to the convection parameterisation are, as long as it is not completely controlled by local production that is independent of convection and its impacts (e.g. water vapour changes. Whereas for long-lived compounds like CO or O3 the mean differences between the simulations are less than 25%, differences for short-lived compounds reach

  13. Climatic potential for summer and winter wine production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo; Moreto, Victor Brunini; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; da Silva Cabral de Moraes, José Reinaldo; Valeriano, Taynara Tuany Borges; de Souza, Paulo Sergio

    2018-03-01

    The geoviticultural multicriteria climatic classification (MCC) system provides an efficient guide for assessing the influence of climate on wine varieties. Paraná is one of the three states in southern Brazil that has great potential for the expansion of wine production, mainly due to the conditions that favour two harvests a year. The objective was to apply the geoviticultural MCC system in two production seasons. We used maximum, mean and minimum air temperature and precipitation for 1990-2015 for the state of Paraná. Air temperature and Precipitation were used to calculate the evapotranspiration and water balance. We applied the MCC system to identify potential areas for grapevine production for harvests in both summer and winter and then determined the climatic zones for each geoviticultural climate. Paraná has viticultural climates with conditions favourable for grapevine cultivation for the production of fine wines from summer and winter harvests. The conditions for the winter harvest provided wines with good coloration and high aromatic potential relative to the summer harvest. Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot Blanc and Müller-Thurgau were suitable for regions with lower air temperatures and water deficits. Pinot Blanc and Müller-Thurgau were typical for the southern region of Paraná. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Improvement of the Seasonal Prediction of the Baiu Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, T.; Yamaura, T.

    2009-12-01

    The Baiu (in Japanese, Meiyu in Chinese, and Changma in Korean) precipitation, which is requisite for water resources in East Asia, occurs with a zonal front appearing in early boreal summer (June and July) near the northwestern rim of the subtropical Pacific high. This front, i.e., the Baiu front, clearly shows interannual variations that are related with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and with the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) of the Asian monsoon. Some studies have already revealed how the Baiu frontal activity is modulated by each of the ENSO and the TBO. However, these two large-scale interannual variations, which have different periodicity, coexist in the real circulation system. Using diagnostic approach, this work evaluates the predictability of Baiu precipitation in this coexistence. When the ENSO and the TBO are "in phase" and the El Nino-like events occur, the Baiu precipitation is larger than normal, whereas the precipitation becomes smaller, when the El Nino-like events appear in the "out-of-phase" relationship between the ENSO and the TBO. Thus, the correlation between the ENSO and the Baiu precipitation is changed by the relative phase of TBO. Such a modulation is performed by the local convective activity around the Philippines. In the large-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO, there appear the specific anomalies, which have opposite signs locally, around the Philippines when the TBO is out of phase. It was found that the use of both the local convective activity around the Philippines and the parameters of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation index contributes to improve the seasonal prediction of the Baiu precipitation.

  15. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 1, Pentad Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad version 1 precipitation data set includes global precipitation rates for 5-day, or pentad, periods. The...

  16. CRUCIB: an axisymmetric convection code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, L.A.

    1975-03-01

    The CRUCIB code was written in support of an experimental program aimed at measurement of thermal diffusivities of refractory liquids. Precise values of diffusivity are necessary to realistic analysis of reactor safety problems, nuclear waste disposal procedures, and fundamental metal forming processes. The code calculates the axisymmetric transient convective motions produced in a right circular cylindrical crucible, which is surface heated by an annular heat pulse. Emphasis of this report is placed on the input-output options of the CRUCIB code, which are tailored to assess the importance of the convective heat transfer in determining the surface temperature distribution. Use is limited to Prandtl numbers less than unity; larger values can be accommodated by replacement of a single block of the code, if desired. (U.S.)

  17. Modelagem climática regional durante dois anos de extremos de precipitação sobre o estado do Amapá: teste de sensibilidade aos esquemas convectivos Regional climate modeling for two years of extreme precipitation over the state of Amapa: test of sensitivity to convective schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Gonçalves das Neves

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available O presente estudo mostra uma avaliação da previsão sazonal do Modelo RegCM3 em dois eventos extremos de precipitação, nos anos 2006 e 2007. Na análise foi utilizada a resolução horizontal de 1° x 1° km e validado com 30 x 15 pontos de latitude x longitude para a região do Estado do Amapá. Os resultados apresentados são referentes à comparação entre precipitação sazonal simulada e observada para o trimestre (MAM. De maneira geral, os resultados mostraram que a utilização da técnica de redução de escala de previsão da precipitação sazonal, apresentou um bom desempenho em simular a variabilidade da chuva em escala regional. Porém, erros na quantidade e na posição de alguns máximos foram observados, quando comparado com os dados observados. O viés úmido foi predominante na região litorânea e o viés seco nas áreas sul-sudeste, oeste e centro com forte persistência na região sudeste. Não se observou regiões com valores estimados de precipitação próximos aos valores observados.This study shows an assessment of the seasonal forecast model RegCM3 in two extreme events of precipitation for the years 2006 and 2007. For the analysis a 1° x 1º km horizontal resolution was used and validated with 30 x 15 points of latitude x longitude for the region of the State of Amapa. The presented results are for the comparison between simulated and observed seasonal precipitation in the quarter (MAM. In general, the results showed that using the scale reduction technique to predict the seasonal rainfall, a good performance in simulating the variability of rainfall on a regional scale is obtained. However, errors in the precipitation amount and on some maximum position were observed when compared with the observed data. The wet bias was prevalent in the humid coastal region and the dry bias in the south-southeast, west and center with a strong persistence in the Southeast. Regions with precipitation values close to the

  18. Preliminary signs of the initiation of deep convection by GNSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Brenot

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study reports on the exploitation of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System and a new potential application for weather forecasts and nowcasting. We focus on GPS observations (post-processing with a time resolution of 5 and 15 min and fast calculations with a time resolution of 5 min and try to establish typical configurations of the water vapour field which characterise convective systems and particularly which supply precursors of their initiation are associated with deep convection. We show the critical role of GNSS horizontal gradients of the water vapour content to detect small scale structures of the troposphere (i. e. convective cells, and then we present our strategy to obtain typical water vapour configurations by GNSS called "H2O alert". These alerts are based on a dry/wet contrast taking place during a 30 min time window before the initiation of a convective system. GNSS observations have been assessed for the rainfall event of 28–29 June 2005 using data from the Belgian dense network (baseline from 5 to 30 km. To validate our GNSS H2O alerts, we use the detection of precipitation by C-band weather radar and thermal infrared radiance (cloud top temperature of the 10.8-micrometers channel [Ch09] of SEVIRI instrument on Meteosat Second Generation. Using post-processed measurements, our H2O alerts obtain a score of about 80%. Final and ultra-rapid IGS (International GNSS Service orbits have been tested and show equivalent results. Fast calculations (less than 10 min have been processed for 29 June 2005 with a time resolution of 5 min. The mean bias (and standard deviation between fast and reference post-processed ZTD (zenith total delay and gradients are, respectively, 0.002 (± 0.008 m and 0.001 (± 0.004 m. The score obtained for the H2O alerts generated by fast calculations is 65%.

  19. Preliminary signs of the initiation of deep convection by GNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenot, H.; Neméghaire, J.; Delobbe, L.; Clerbaux, N.; De Meutter, P.; Deckmyn, A.; Delcloo, A.; Frappez, L.; Van Roozendael, M.

    2013-06-01

    This study reports on the exploitation of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and a new potential application for weather forecasts and nowcasting. We focus on GPS observations (post-processing with a time resolution of 5 and 15 min and fast calculations with a time resolution of 5 min) and try to establish typical configurations of the water vapour field which characterise convective systems and particularly which supply precursors of their initiation are associated with deep convection. We show the critical role of GNSS horizontal gradients of the water vapour content to detect small scale structures of the troposphere (i. e. convective cells), and then we present our strategy to obtain typical water vapour configurations by GNSS called "H2O alert". These alerts are based on a dry/wet contrast taking place during a 30 min time window before the initiation of a convective system. GNSS observations have been assessed for the rainfall event of 28-29 June 2005 using data from the Belgian dense network (baseline from 5 to 30 km). To validate our GNSS H2O alerts, we use the detection of precipitation by C-band weather radar and thermal infrared radiance (cloud top temperature) of the 10.8-micrometers channel [Ch09] of SEVIRI instrument on Meteosat Second Generation. Using post-processed measurements, our H2O alerts obtain a score of about 80%. Final and ultra-rapid IGS (International GNSS Service) orbits have been tested and show equivalent results. Fast calculations (less than 10 min) have been processed for 29 June 2005 with a time resolution of 5 min. The mean bias (and standard deviation) between fast and reference post-processed ZTD (zenith total delay) and gradients are, respectively, 0.002 (± 0.008) m and 0.001 (± 0.004) m. The score obtained for the H2O alerts generated by fast calculations is 65%.

  20. Analyzing coastal precipitation using TRMM observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Heiblum

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The interaction between breezes and synoptic gradient winds, and surface friction increase in transition from sea to land can create persistent convergence zones nearby coastlines. The low level convergence of moist air promotes the dynamical and microphysical processes responsible for the formation of clouds and precipitation.

    Our work focuses on the winter seasons of 1998–2011 in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the winter the Mediterranean sea is usually warmer than the adjacent land, resulting in frequent occurrence of land breeze that opposes the common synoptic winds. Using rain-rate vertical profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite, we examined the spatial and temporal distribution of average hydrometeor mass in clouds as a function of the distance from coastlines.

    Results show that coastlines in the Eastern Mediterranean are indeed favored areas for precipitation formation. The intra-seasonal and diurnal changes in the distribution of hydrometeor mass indicate that the land breeze may likely be the main responsible mechanism behind our results.

  1. Cryogenic helium gas convection research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, R.J.

    1994-10-01

    This is a report prepared by a group interested in doing research in thermal convection using the large scale refrigeration facilities available at the SSC Laboratories (SSCL). The group preparing this report consists of Michael McAshan at SSCL, Robert Behringer at Duke University, Katepalli Sreenivasan at Yale University, Xiao-Zhong Wu at Northern Illinois University and Russell Donnelly at the University of Oregon, who served as Editor for this report. This study reports the research and development opportunities in such a project, the technical requirements and feasibility of its construction and operation, and the costs associated with the needed facilities and support activities. The facility will be a unique national resource for studies of high-Reynolds-number and high-Rayleigh-number and high Rayleigh number turbulence phenomena, and is one of the six items determined as suitable for potential funding through a screening of Expressions of Interest. The proposed facility is possible only because of the advanced cryogenic technology available at the SSCL. Typical scientific issues to be addressed in the facility will be discussed. It devolved during our study, that while the main experiment is still considered to be the thermal convection experiment discussed in our original Expression of Interest, there are now a very substantial set of other, important and fundamental experiments which can be done with the large cryostat proposed for the convection experiment. We believe the facility could provide several decades of front-line research in turbulence, and shall describe why this is so

  2. The Continental Drift Convection Cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, J. A.; Behn, M. D.

    2014-12-01

    Continents on Earth periodically assemble to form supercontinents, and then break up again into smaller continental blocks (the Wilson Cycle). Highly developed but realistic numerical models cannot resolve if continents respond passively to mantle convection or whether they modulate flow. Our simplified numerical model addresses this problem: A thermally insulating continent floats on a stress-free surface for infinite Prandtl number cellular convection with constant material properties in a chamber 8 times longer than its depth. The continent moves back and forth across the chamber driven by a "continental drift convection cell" of a form not previously described. Subduction exists at the upstream end with cold slabs dipping at an angle beneath the moving continent. Fluid moves with the continent in the upper region of this cell with return flow near the bottom. Many continent/subduction regions on Earth have these features. The drifting cell enhances vertical heat transport by approximately 30% compared to a fixed continent, especially at the core-mantle boundary, and significantly decreases lateral mantle temperature differences. However, continent drift or fixity has smaller effects on profiles of horizontally averaged temperature. Although calculations are done at Rayleigh numbers lower than expected for Earth's mantle (2x105 and 106), the drift speed extrapolates to reasonable Wilson Cycle speeds for larger Ra.

  3. Operational 0–3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Kitzmiller, D.; Pešice, Petr; Guan, S.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 92, č. 3 (2009), s. 318-330 ISSN 0169-8095. [International workshop on precipitation in urban areas /7./. St. Moritz, 07.12.2006-10.12.2006] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1P05ME748 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation * Prediction * Convection * Radar * Nowcasting Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.811, year: 2009

  4. Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on a Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

    2017-10-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The generally decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that

  5. Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

    2017-04-01

    Recently, climate change and human activities increased the desertification process in the Mediterranean regions, with dramatic consequences for agriculture and water resources. On the Sardinia island (Italy), runoff decreased significantly in the 1975-2010 period with a mean yearly runoff reduction of more than 50% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. The decrease in runoff severely impacts the management of water resources on the Sardinia island, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins, with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), the trend of yearly runoff computed with the Mann-Kendall test is negative, with the Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. The reason for the decrease in runoff is mainly the alarming decrease in the winter precipitation over the past few decades everywhere on the Sardinia island. Indeed, most of the yearly runoff of the Sardinian basins (on average, 70%) is produced by the winter precipitation due to the typical seasonality of the Mediterranean rainfall regime. Surprisingly, the winter precipitation trend is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher on the Sardinian west coast and becomes lower as one crosses the island toward the east coast. At the rain stations on the east coast, the τ Mann-Kendall values of the winter precipitation become almost half of the τ Mann-Kendall values on the west coast, which is exposed to the western European climate dynamics. In this sense, winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, the correlations decrease as one crosses the island toward the east

  6. Statistical Characteristics of Convective Clouds over the Western Ghats Derived from Weather Radar Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utsav, Bhowmik; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Das, Subrata K.; Pandithurai, Govindan

    2017-09-01

    X-band radar observations at Mandhardev (18.04°N, 73.85°E) are used to investigate statistics of convective clouds over the Western Ghats during monsoon season (June-September 2014). Convective storms (cells) are identified using an objective-tracking method to examine their spatiotemporal variability, thus quantifying the time-continuous aspects of convective cloud population over the region for the first time. An increased frequency of storm location and initiation along the windward mountains compared to coastal and lee side highlights orographic response to southwesterly flow, with superimposed diurnal cycle. An eastward progression of convective activity from upstream the barrier through windward slopes of mountains over to the lee side is observed. Storm area, height, and duration follow lognormal distributions; wherein, small-sized storms contribute more to total population and unimodal distribution of 35 dBZ top heights (peaking at 5.5 km) depicts the dominance of shallow convection. Storms exhibit a pronounced diurnal cycle with a peak in afternoon hours, while the convective area maximum is delayed by several hours to that of precipitation flux. Cell lifetime and propagation show that cells move with slow speeds and have mean duration of 46 min. They align east-west nearly parallel to mountain ridges, and their direction of movement is steered mostly by large-scale winds at lower levels. Based on top heights, convective cells are further classified into cumulus, congestus, and deep clouds. In general, congestus (deep) cells are most abundant in the windward (leeward) side. A lead-lag relationship between congestus and deep cells indicates midtroposphere moistening by congestus cells prior to deep convection.

  7. Telescoping, multimodel approaches to evaluate extreme convective weather under future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapp, Robert J.; Halvorson, Brooke A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2007-10-01

    Understanding of the possible response of severe convective precipitating storms to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations remains elusive. To address this problem, telescoping, multimodel approaches are proposed, which allow representation of a broad range of processes that could regulate convective storm behavior. In the global-cloud approach (G-C), the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global data set provides initial and boundary conditions for short-term integrations of a mesoscale model and nested convective-cloud-permitting domain. In the global-regional-cloud approach (G-R-C), the NNRP data set provides initial and boundary conditions for long-term integrations of a regional climate model, which in turn forces short-term integrations of a mesoscale model and nested convective-cloud-permitting domain. Upon applying these approaches to historical extreme convective storm events, it was found that the global-scale data could be dynamically downscaled to produce realistic convective-scale solutions. In particular, tornado proxies computed from the model-simulated winds were shown to compare well in relative numbers to those of tornado observations on many of the days considered. This supports the telescoping modeling concept as a viable means to address effects of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations on convective-scale phenomena. In an evaluation of the two approaches, it was also found that simulations of the historical events by the G-C were superior to those by the G-R-C. Sensitivity of the convective-scale processes to details in the downscaled synoptic-scale flow, and to the placement of the mesoscale model domain within the regional climate model, reduced the effectiveness of the G-R-C.

  8. ISLSCP II Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2, Monthly Precipitation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 data set includes global, monthly precipitation rates and associated random errors (RMSE),...

  9. WPA Precipitation Tabulations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly precipitation data tabulated under the Work Projects Administration (WPA), a New Deal program created to reduce unemployment during the Great Depression....

  10. Off-line algorithm for calculation of vertical tracer transport in the troposphere due to deep convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belikov, D. A.; Maksyutov, S.; Krol, M.; Fraser, A.; Rigby, M.; Bian, H.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bousquet, P.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Gloor, E.; Haynes, K.; Hess, P.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Law, R. M.; Loh, Z.; Meng, L.; Palmer, P. I.; Patra, P. K.; Prinn, R. G.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-02-01

    A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical transport within the scheme includes entrainment and detrainment processes in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Output from the proposed parametrisation scheme is employed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) global chemical transport model driven by JRA-25/JCDAS reanalysis. The simulated convective precipitation rate and mass fluxes are compared with observations and reanalysis data. A simulation of the short-lived tracer 222Rn is used to further evaluate the performance of the cumulus convection scheme. Simulated distributions of 222Rn are evaluated against observations at the surface and in the free troposphere, and compared with output from models that participated in the TransCom-CH4 Transport Model Intercomparison. From this comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed convective scheme in general is consistent with observed and modeled results.

  11. Off-line algorithm for calculation of vertical tracer transport in the troposphere due to deep convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Belikov

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical transport within the scheme includes entrainment and detrainment processes in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Output from the proposed parametrisation scheme is employed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES global chemical transport model driven by JRA-25/JCDAS reanalysis. The simulated convective precipitation rate and mass fluxes are compared with observations and reanalysis data. A simulation of the short-lived tracer 222Rn is used to further evaluate the performance of the cumulus convection scheme. Simulated distributions of 222Rn are evaluated against observations at the surface and in the free troposphere, and compared with output from models that participated in the TransCom-CH4 Transport Model Intercomparison. From this comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed convective scheme in general is consistent with observed and modeled results.

  12. Improving the Representation of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitating Events over Land in a Regional Climate System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazoyer, M.; Roehrig, R.; Nuissier, O.; Duffourg, F.; Somot, S.

    2017-12-01

    Most regional climate models (RCSMs) face difficulties in representing a reasonable pre-cipitation probability density function in the Mediterranean area and especially over land.Small amounts of rain are too frequent, preventing any realistic representation of droughts orheat waves, while the intensity of heavy precipitating events is underestimated and not welllocated by most state-of-the-art RCSMs using parameterized convection (resolution from10 to 50 km). Convective parameterization is a key point for the representation of suchevents and recently, the new physics implemented in the CNRM-RCSM has been shown toremarkably improve it, even at a 50-km scale.The present study seeks to further analyse the representation of heavy precipitating eventsby this new version of CNRM-RCSM using a process oriented approach. We focus on oneparticular event in the south-east of France, over the Cévennes. Two hindcast experimentswith the CNRM-RCSM (12 and 50 km) are performed and compared with a simulationbased on the convection-permitting model Meso-NH, which makes use of a very similarsetup as CNRM-RCSM hindcasts. The role of small-scale features of the regional topogra-phy and its interaction with the impinging large-scale flow in triggering the convective eventare investigated. This study provides guidance in the ongoing implementation and use of aspecific parameterization dedicated to account for subgrid-scale orography in the triggeringand closure conditions of the CNRM-RCSM convection scheme.

  13. Changes of Winter Oilseed Rape Plant Survival During Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balodis Oskars

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. significance among field crops is unchangeable in Latvia in the last decade. Plant density of winter oilseed rape during growth period is influenced by plant development in autumn and plant wintering. The aim of four year (2008 – 2011 research in the LLU Research and Study farm “Vecauce” was to investigate the influence of agronomical factors (sowing date, sowing rate, fungicide (metkonazole application and meteorological factors on two type (line, hybrid winter oilseed rape varieties plant density changes from sowing till harvesting. Plant density in autumn, spring and during harvesting was influenced also by meteorological parameters such as air temperature and precipitation. On four year average, field germination was observed from 66% to 95%. Sowing date significantly (p0.05 influenced by fungicide as growth regulator application in autumn in any trial year. Influence of sowing date and sowing rate on the total plant density at harvest time was significant in all trial years (p<0.05 for both varieties. At higher sowing rate the plant loss during growing period was higher than at lower rates.

  14. Comparison of the Thermal Performance of Radiative and Convective Terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Dreau, Jerome; Heiselberg, Per

    2012-01-01

    of interest to compare the energy efficiency of the two types of terminals for heating and cooling buildings. Convective terminals (i.e. air conditioning systems) have been widely used in buildings, but the level of comfort is not always acceptable due to high air velocity. On the other hand radiant terminals...... can provide a better indoor climate, and be more energy efficient because they can make use of low-grade sources. The output of this conceptual approach is a better understanding of the advantages and drawbacks of the two technologies under different conditions. The analysis has been performed...... by simulating the energy consumption of an office room, located in Denmark. Different outdoor conditions have been tested, in order to compare their performance during the winter season and the summer season. Different types of activated surface have also been simulated. The results of this analysis show...

  15. Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

    2017-10-01

    Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

  16. Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinzman, Larry D.; Kane, Douglas L.; Oechel, Walter C.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Zona, Donatella

    2017-08-01

    Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

  17. Summer fallow soil management - impact on rainfed winter wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Fucui; Wang, Zhaohui; Dai, Jian

    2014-01-01

    Summer fallow soil management is an important approach to improve soil and crop management in dryland areas. In the Loess Plateau regions, the annual precipitation is low and varies annually and seasonally, with more than 60% concentrated in the summer months from July to September, which...... is the summer fallow period in the winter wheat-summer fallow cropping system. With bare fallow in summer as a control, a 3-year location-fixed field experiment was conducted in the Loess Plateau to investigate the effects of wheat straw retention (SR), green manure (GM) planting, and their combination on soil...... water retention (WR) during summer fallow, winter wheat yield, and crop water use and nitrogen (N) uptake. The results showed that SR increased soil WR during summer fallow by 20 mm on average compared with the control over 3 experimental years but reduced the grain yield by 8% in the third year...

  18. Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Simulated and Observed Intense Convection Between Continental and Maritime Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, T.; Dolan, B.; Tao, W. K.; Rutledge, S. A.; Iguchi, T.; Barnum, J. I.; Lang, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    This study presents polarimetric radar characteristics of intense convective cores derived from observations as well as a polarimetric-radar simulator from cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations from Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) May 23 case over Oklahoma and a Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) Jan 23 case over Darwin, Australia to highlight the contrast between continental and maritime convection. The POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator (POLARRIS) is a state-of-art T-matrix-Mueller-Matrix-based polarimetric radar simulator that can generate synthetic polarimetric radar signals (reflectivity, differential reflectivity, specific differential phase, co-polar correlation) as well as synthetic radar retrievals (precipitation, hydrometeor type, updraft velocity) through the consistent treatment of cloud microphysics and dynamics from CRMs. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured to simulate continental and maritime severe storms over the MC3E and TWP-ICE domains with the Goddard bulk 4ICE single-moment microphysics and HUCM spectra-bin microphysics. Various statistical diagrams of polarimetric radar signals, hydrometeor types, updraft velocity, and precipitation intensity are investigated for convective and stratiform precipitation regimes and directly compared between MC3E and TWP-ICE cases. The result shows MC3E convection is characterized with very strong reflectivity (up to 60dBZ), slight negative differential reflectivity (-0.8 0 dB) and near-zero specific differential phase above the freezing levels. On the other hand, TWP-ICE convection shows strong reflectivity (up to 50dBZ), slight positive differential reflectivity (0 1.0 dB) and differential phase (0 0.8 dB/km). Hydrometeor IDentification (HID) algorithm from the observation and simulations detect hail-dominant convection core in MC3E, while graupel-dominant convection core in TWP-ICE. This land-ocean contrast

  19. Evapotranspiration in winter wheat under different grazing and tillage practices in the southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) is highly variable both spatially and temporally with recurring periods of severe drought. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) – summer fallow system with conventional tillage is the principal dryland cropping system in this region for both grazing an...

  20. Summer throughfall and winter deposition in the San Bernardino mountains in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. E. Fenn; A. Bytnerowicz

    1997-01-01

    Summer throughfall and year-round precipitation chemistry were studied for three years at Barton Flats (BF), a low to moderate pollution site in the San Bernardino Mountains (SBM) in southern California. Winter fog plus dry deposition, and bulk deposition were also measured during one season at three sites traversing an atmospheric deposition gradient in the SBM....

  1. Nutrient losses from Fall and Winter-applied manure: Effects of timing and soil temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects both the infiltration of meltwater and precipitation, and nutrient cycling. The objectives of this study were to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall and winter-applied dairy manure based on the soil temperature at t...

  2. Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

    2010-01-01

    A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

  3. Long-term trends in precipitation and precipitation extremes and underlying mechanisms in the U.S. Great Basin during 1951-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Tingting; Tang, Guoping; Sun, Lin; Wu, Yuzhen; Liu, Yonglin; Dou, Yifeng

    2017-06-01

    Using daily precipitation records from 151 stations, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, and the rotated empirical orthogonal function, this study examined trends in precipitation and precipitation extremes and underlying mechanisms in the U.S. Great Basin during 1951-2013. The results indicate that annual total precipitation, 1 day and 5 day maximum precipitation, extreme precipitation days over the 95th and 99th percentiles trended upward during 1951-2013. Spatially, stations experienced significant positive trends in six indices are mostly distributed in the eastern basin, while those experienced significant negative trends are a few and situated in the western basin. Four distinct modes characterized by different patterns of annual precipitation variations were identified. They are the northeastern, southern, midwestern, and midnorthern modes. In addition, we found that the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on precipitation was low in the basin. The intensifying high-pressure system over the western North Pacific in winter and the increasing water vapor and air temperature of the atmosphere over the basin in winter and spring were mainly responsible for the upward trends in six indices during 1951-2013. Nevertheless, the topography regulates the effects of synoptic conditions on precipitation, contributing to the "east-west" contrast in station distribution between those experienced negative and positive trends. Overall, precipitation and precipitation extremes increased significantly in the eastern and northern basin while increases were not significant in the western and southern basin. This information has important implications for not only predicting future precipitation changes but also mitigating precipitation-change-associated risks on ecosystems and human society in the Great Basin.

  4. The convection electric field in auroral substorms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerløv, Jesper Wittendorff; Hoffman, R.A.

    2001-01-01

    Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) electric field and ion drift data are used in a statistical study of the ionospheric convection electric field in bulge-type auroral substorms. Thirty-one individual DE 2 substorm crossings were carefully selected and organized by the use of global auroral images obtained...... this database enabled us to compile a model of the ionospheric convection electric field. The characteristics of the premidnight convection reversal show a pronounced local time dependency. Far west of the surge it is a fairly well defined point reversal or convection shear. Approaching the surge and within...... the surge it is a region of weak electric fields increasing in width toward midnight that separates regions of equatorward and poleward electric fields. Therefore we adopt the term Harang region rather than the Harang discontinuity for the premidnight convection reversal. A relatively narrow convection...

  5. Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Danqing; Yan, Peiwen; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yaocun; Kuang, Xueyuan; Cheng, Jing

    2018-04-01

    The uncertainty of global summer precipitation simulated by the 23 CMIP5 CGCMs and the possible impacts of model resolutions are investigated in this study. Large uncertainties exist over the tropical and subtropical regions, which can be mainly attributed to convective precipitation simulation. High-resolution models (HRMs) and low-resolution models (LRMs) are further investigated to demonstrate their different contributions to the uncertainties of the ensemble mean. It shows that the high-resolution model ensemble means (HMME) and low-resolution model ensemble mean (LMME) mitigate the biases between the MME and observation over most continents and oceans, respectively. The HMME simulates more precipitation than the LMME over most oceans, but less precipitation over some continents. The dominant precipitation category in the HRMs (LRMs) is the heavy precipitation (moderate precipitation) over the tropic regions. The combinations of convective and stratiform precipitation are also quite different: the HMME has much higher ratio of stratiform precipitation while the LMME has more convective precipitation. Finally, differences in precipitation between the HMME and LMME can be traced to their differences in the SST simulations via the local and remote air-sea interaction.

  6. Spatio-temporal precipitation error propagation in runoff modelling: a case study in central Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olsson

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The propagation of spatio-temporal errors in precipitation estimates to runoff errors in the output from the conceptual hydrological HBV model was investigated. The study region was the Gimån catchment in central Sweden, and the period year 2002. Five precipitation sources were considered: NWP model (H22, weather radar (RAD, precipitation gauges (PTH, and two versions of a mesoscale analysis system (M11, M22. To define the baseline estimates of precipitation and runoff, used to define seasonal precipitation and runoff biases, the mesoscale climate analysis M11 was used. The main precipitation biases were a systematic overestimation of precipitation by H22, in particular during winter and early spring, and a pronounced local overestimation by RAD during autumn, in the western part of the catchment. These overestimations in some cases exceeded 50% in terms of seasonal subcatchment relative accumulated volume bias, but generally the bias was within ±20%. The precipitation data from the different sources were used to drive the HBV model, set up and calibrated for two stations in Gimån, both for continuous simulation during 2002 and for forecasting of the spring flood peak. In summer, autumn and winter all sources agreed well. In spring H22 overestimated the accumulated runoff volume by ~50% and peak discharge by almost 100%, owing to both overestimated snow depth and precipitation during the spring flood. PTH overestimated spring runoff volumes by ~15% owing to overestimated winter precipitation. The results demonstrate how biases in precipitation estimates may exhibit a substantial space-time variability, and may further become either magnified or reduced when applied for hydrological purposes, depending on both temporal and spatial variations in the catchment. Thus, the uncertainty in precipitation estimates should preferably be specified as a function of both time and space.

  7. Impact of precipitation intermittency on NAO-temperature signals in proxy records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casado

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In mid and high latitudes, the stable isotope ratio in precipitation is driven by changes in temperature, which control atmospheric distillation. This relationship forms the basis for many continental paleoclimatic reconstructions using direct (e.g. ice cores or indirect (e.g. tree ring cellulose, speleothem calcite archives of past precipitation. However, the archiving process is inherently biased by intermittency of precipitation. Here, we use two sets of atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and ERA-interim to quantify this precipitation intermittency bias, by comparing seasonal (winter and summer temperatures estimated with and without precipitation weighting. We show that this bias reaches up to 10 °C and has large interannual variability. We then assess the impact of precipitation intermittency on the strength and stability of temporal correlations between seasonal temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. Precipitation weighting reduces the correlation between winter NAO and temperature in some areas (e.g. Québec, South-East USA, East Greenland, East Siberia, Mediterranean sector but does not alter the main patterns of correlation. The correlations between NAO, δ18O in precipitation, temperature and precipitation weighted temperature are investigated using outputs of an atmospheric general circulation model enabled with stable isotopes and nudged using reanalyses (LMDZiso (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom. In winter, LMDZiso shows similar correlation values between the NAO and both the precipitation weighted temperature and δ18O in precipitation, thus suggesting limited impacts of moisture origin. Correlations of comparable magnitude are obtained for the available observational evidence (GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation and Greenland ice core data. Our findings support the use of archives of past δ18O for NAO reconstructions.

  8. Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204

  9. Evaluation of a Mesoscale Convective System in Variable-Resolution CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, A. E.; Jablonowski, C.

    2017-12-01

    Warm season precipitation over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) follows a well observed diurnal pattern of variability, peaking at night-time, due to the eastward propagation of mesoscale convection systems that develop over the eastern slopes of the Rockies in the late afternoon. While most climate models are unable to adequately capture the organization of convection and characteristic pattern of precipitation over this region, models with high enough resolution to explicitly resolve convection show improvement. However, high resolution simulations are computationally expensive and, in the case of regional climate models, are subject to boundary conditions. Newly developed variable resolution global climate models strike a balance between the benefits of high-resolution regional climate models and the large-scale dynamics of global climate models and low computational cost. Recently developed parameterizations that are insensitive to the model grid scale provide a way to improve model performance. Here, we present an evaluation of the newly available Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization scheme in a suite of variable-resolution CESM simulations with resolutions ranging from 110 km to 7 km within a regionally refined region centered over the SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Simulations utilize the hindcast approach developed by the Department of Energy's Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) for the assessment of climate models. We limit our evaluation to a single mesoscale convective system that passed over the region on May 24, 2008. The effects of grid-resolution on the timing and intensity of precipitation, as well as, on the transition from shallow to deep convection are assessed against ground-based observations from the SGP ARM site, satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis.

  10. Scheme for calculation of multi-layer cloudiness and precipitation for climate models of intermediate complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Coumou, D.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Petoukhov, V.; Petri, S.

    2013-01-01

    In this study we present a scheme for calculating the characteristics of multi-layer cloudiness and precipitation for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). This scheme considers three-layer stratiform cloudiness and single-column convective clouds. It distinguishes between ice and

  11. The spatial extent of rainfall events and its relation to precipitation scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lochbihler, K.U.; Lenderink, Geert; Siebesma, A.P.

    2017-01-01

    Observations show that subdaily precipitation extremes increase with dew point temperature at a rate exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. The understanding of this so-called super CC scaling is still incomplete, and observations of convective cell properties could provide important

  12. Why rainfall response to El Niño over Maritime Continent is weaker and non-uniform in boreal winter than in boreal summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Leishan; Li, Tim

    2017-11-01

    Why rainfall response to El Niño is uniform and stronger over the Maritime Continent (MC) during El Niño developing summer and fall but is weaker and non-uniform during El Niño mature winter is investigated through the diagnosis of anomalous large-scale circulation patterns and a local moisture budget analysis. It is found that when anomalous Walker cells across the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean are strengthened toward El Niño mature winter, a low-level ascending motion anomaly starts to develop over western MC in northern fall due to topographic lifting (near Sumatra) and anomalous wind convergence (near west Kalimantan). Easterly anomalies, as a part of an anomalous anticyclone in South China Sea (SCS) that is developed during El Niño and a part of the south-easterly from Java Sea associated with anomalous Walker Circulation, bump into the mountain ridge of Sumatra and induce ascending motion anomalies near Sumatra. Meanwhile, the anomalous north-easterly in the southern flank of the anomalous anticyclone over SCS and south-easterly over Java Sea converge into west Kalimantan, leading to ascending motion there. The anomalous ascending motion tend to advect mean moisture upward to moisten lower troposphere in situ. This low-level moistening eventually sets up a convectively unstable stratification and induces a positive precipitation anomaly in the western MC. How the mechanism discussed here is relevant to previous hypotheses and how processes during El Niño might differ during La Niña are discussed.

  13. Evolution and Mean Properties of Convective Systems in Southwestern Amazonia During TRMM-LBA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickenbach, Thomas M.; Ferreira, Rosana Nieto; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; deSilvaDias, Maria A. F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    During the wet season TRMM field campaign in Rondonia, Brazil, a variety of convective systems were sampled by radar, sounding, and geostationary satellite for a 60 day period in early 1999. Local variations in the local wind and humidity field have been attributed in part by this study to synoptic scale phenomena, most conspicuously the establishment of stationary frontal systems penetrating into the tropics. These baroclinic systems induced periodic episodes low level moist, westerly flow across Rondonia during the experiment. This flow feature may be an important component of the South American climate system by playing a role in maintaining the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, which was active during these local westerly wind events. It is therefore important to understand the differences in mesoscale properties of convective systems between the westerly wind periods and intervening easterly wind periods. Differences in shear and moisture characteristics (Halverson et al. 2000, this meeting) are compared to structural and life-cycle characteristics of convective systems in Rondonia. Data from ground based radar and geostationary satellite provide a view of the evolution of the vertical structure and horizontal morphology of several large mesoscale convective systems in each regime. Preliminary statistics on the diurnal variation of precipitation intensity, areal coverage, and cloud top area are presented. Results suggest that long-lived, shallow convective systems with a large stratiform component of precipitation are characteristic of the westerly wind periods. A goal of this study is to establish a basis for which to parameterize the mesoscale effects of convection on large scale features of the South American climate system.

  14. The impact exploration of agricultural drought on winter wheat yield in the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jianhua; Wu, Jianjun; Han, Xinyi; Zhou, Hongkui

    2017-04-01

    Drought is one of the most serious agro-climatic disasters in the North China Plain, which has a great influence on winter wheat yield. Global warming exacerbates the drought trend of this region, so it is important to study the effect of drought on winter wheat yield. In order to assess the drought-induced winter wheat yield losses, SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index), the widely used drought index, was selected to quantify the drought from 1981 to 2013. Additionally, the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) crop model was used to simulate winter wheat yield at 47 stations in this region from 1981 to 2013. We analyzed the relationship between winter wheat yield and the SPEI at different time scales in each month during the growing season. The trends of the SPEI and the trends of winter wheat yield at 47 stations over the past 32 years were compared with each other. To further quantify the effect of drought on winter wheat yield, we defined the year that SPEI varied from -0.5 to 0.5 as the normal year, and calculated the average winter wheat yield of the normal years as a reference yield, then calculated the reduction ratios of winter wheat based on the yields mentioned above in severe drought years. As a reference, we compared the results with the reduction ratios calculated from the statistical yield data. The results showed that the 9 to 12-month scales' SPEI in April, May and June had a high correlation with winter wheat yield. The trends of the SPEI and the trends of winter wheat yield over the past 32 years showed a positive correlation (pChina Plain