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Sample records for winds storm surge

  1. An Exploration of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques in Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyra M. Bryant

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As hurricanes continue to threaten coastal communities, accurate storm surge forecasting remains a global priority. Achieving a reliable storm surge prediction necessitates accurate hurricane intensity and wind field information. The wind field must be converted to wind stress, which represents the air-sea momentum flux component required in storm surge and other oceanic models. This conversion requires a multiplicative drag coefficient for the air density and wind speed to represent the air-sea momentum exchange at a given location. Air density is a known parameter and wind speed is a forecasted variable, whereas the drag coefficient is calculated using an empirical correlation. The correlation’s accuracy has brewed a controversy of its own for more than half a century. This review paper examines the lineage of drag coefficient correlations and their acceptance among scientists.

  2. Modelling the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge: Effect of Waves, Offshore Winds, Tide Phase, and Translation Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgera, P. H. T.; Villanoy, C.; Cabrera, O.

    2016-02-01

    Super Typhoon Haiyan, with wind speeds exceeding 300 km h-1 (160 knots) generated a storm surge in San Pedro Bay reaching heights of more than 6m in Tacloban City. Delft Dashboard (DDB), an open-source standalone Matlab based graphical user interface linked to the FLOW and WAVE modeling software of Deltares, was used to develop a coupled flow and wave storm surge model to understand the Typhoon Haiyan storm surge development and propagation. Various experiments were designed to determine the effect of waves, the occurrence of offshore winds prior to the surge, tidal phase, and typhoon translation speed on the surge height. Wave coupling decreased the surge height by about 0.5m probably due to energy dissipation from white capping, bottom friction, and depth-induced breaking. Offshore-directed winds before the arrival of the storm eye resulted to receding of the water level in San Pedro and Cancabato Bay, corroborated by eyewitness and tide gauge data. The experiment wherein the offshore winds were removed resulted to no water receding and a surge with a smaller and gentler surge front, pointing to the importance of the initial water level drawdown in contributing to the destructive power of the wave front. With regard to tides, the effect in Tacloban was actually neither linear nor additive to the surge, with higher surge coincident to low tides and lower surge coincident to high tides. Lastly, the model run with typhoon having a slower translation speed than Haiyan was found to generate higher surges.

  3. Using wind setdown and storm surge on Lake Erie to calibrate the air-sea drag coefficient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Drews

    Full Text Available The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS. Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN. Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1.

  4. Importance of air-sea interaction on wind waves, storm surge and hurricane simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2017-04-01

    It was reported from field observations that wind stress coefficient levels off and even decreases when the wind speed exceeds 30-40 m/s. We propose a wave boundary layer model (WBLM) based on the momentum and energy conservation equations. Taking into account the physical details of the air-sea interaction process as well as the energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray, this model successfully predicts the decreasing tendency of wind stress coefficient. Then WBLM is embedded in the current-wave coupled model FVCOM-SWAVE to simulate surface waves and storm surge under the forcing of hurricane Katrina. Numerical results based on WBLM agree well with the observed data of NDBC buoys and tide gauges. Sensitivity analysis of different wind stress evaluation methods also shows that large anomalies of significant wave height and surge elevation are captured along the passage of hurricane core. The differences of the local wave height are up to 13 m, which is in accordance with the general knowledge that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. In the final part of the research, the reduced wind stress coefficient is tested in the numerical forecast of hurricane Katrina. A parabolic formula fitted to WBLM is employed in the atmosphere-ocean coupled model COAWST. Considering the joint effects of ocean cooling and reduced wind drag, the intensity metrics - the minimum sea level pressure and the maximum 10 m wind speed - are in good inconsistency with the best track result. Those methods, which predict the wind stress coefficient that increase or saturate in extreme wind condition, underestimate the hurricane intensity. As a whole, we unify the evaluation methods of wind stress in different numerical models and yield reasonable results. Although it is too early to conclude that WBLM is totally applicable or the drag coefficient does decrease for high wind speed, our current

  5. Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Babu, M.T.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.

    on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon...

  6. Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

  7. Assessment of Storm Surge Forecasting Methods Used During Typhoon Haiyan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    On 8 November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the central part of the Philippines. Considered one of the most powerful typhoons ever to make landfall in recorded history with 315 kph one-minute maximum sustained winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Haiyan brought widespread devastation in its path. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges caused massive loss of lives and extensive damage to property. Storm surges were primarily responsible for the 6,201 dead, 1,785 missing and 28,626 injured in Haiyan's aftermath. This study documents the Haiyan storm surge simulations which were used as basis for the warnings provided to the public. The storm tide -- storm surge added to astronomical tide levels -- forecasts were made using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) Storm Surge Model and WXTide software. Storm surge maps for the entire Philippines and time series plots for observation points in areas along the path of the typhoon were produced. Storm tide heights between one and five meters were also predicted for 68 coastal areas two days prior to Haiyan's landfall. A storm surge inundation map showing the extent of coastal flooding for Tacloban City, Leyte, one of the most severely affected areas by the typhoon, was generated using FLO-2D software. This was validated using field data such as high water marks, eyewitness accounts from locals, and information from media coverage. This map can be used as reference to determine danger zones and safe evacuation sites during similar events. Typhoon Haiyan generated one of the biggest and most devastating storm surge events in several decades, exacting a high death toll despite its early prediction. Lessons learned from this calamity and information contained in this work may serve as useful reference to mitigate the heavy impact of future storm surge events in the Philippines and elsewhere.

  8. Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li Huang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.

  9. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

  10. Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words ) Storm surges have a...model. One of the governing systems of equations used to model storm surges’ effects is the Shallow Water Equations (SWE). In this thesis, we solve the...fundamental truth, we found the error norm of the implicit method to be minimal. This study focuses on the impacts of a simulated storm surge in La Push

  11. Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsburgh, K.

    2014-12-01

    Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

  12. Coastal ecosystems for protection against storm surge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    reservoirs. Channels, lakes, ponds and marshes distribute flood waters, whereas natural topographic depressions can store large volumes of surge water (Fig.2). Unfortunately, such settings are fast diminishing as structures are being located in reclaimed... Hazards", Spl. Vol. of IGC O.P. Varma, G.V. Rajamanickam & Eugene Wilson (eds.), Ind. Geol. Cong., 2010, pp. 135-145. 9 Coastal Ecosystems for Protection against Storm Surge Antonio Mascarenhas National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula-403004 (Goa...

  13. Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

    2018-01-01

    Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

  14. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.

    2014-03-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Storm surge and wave simulations in the Gulf of Mexico using a consistent drag relation for atmospheric and storm surge models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Vatvani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To simulate winds and water levels, numerical weather prediction (NWP and storm surge models generally use the traditional bulk relation for wind stress, which is characterized by a wind drag coefficient. A still commonly used drag coefficient in those models, some of them were developed in the past, is based on a relation, according to which the magnitude of the coefficient is either constant or increases monotonically with increasing surface wind speed (Bender, 2007; Kim et al., 2008; Kohno and Higaki, 2006. The NWP and surge models are often tuned independently from each other in order to obtain good results. Observations have indicated that the magnitude of the drag coefficient levels off at a wind speed of about 30 m s−1, and then decreases with further increase of the wind speed. Above a wind speed of approximately 30 m s−1, the stress above the air-sea interface starts to saturate. To represent the reducing and levelling off of the drag coefficient, the original Charnock drag formulation has been extended with a correction term.

    In line with the above, the Delft3D storm surge model is tested using both Charnock's and improved Makin's wind drag parameterization to evaluate the improvements on the storm surge model results, with and without inclusion of the wave effects. The effect of waves on storm surge is included by simultaneously simulating waves with the SWAN model on identical model grids in a coupled mode. However, the results presented here will focus on the storm surge results that include the wave effects.

    The runs were carried out in the Gulf of Mexico for Katrina and Ivan hurricane events. The storm surge model was initially forced with H*wind data (Powell et al., 2010 to test the effect of the Makin's wind drag parameterization on the storm surge model separately. The computed wind, water levels and waves are subsequently compared with observation data. Based on the good

  16. Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Fischer, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.; Ganske, A.; Rosenhagen, G.; Heinrich, H.

    2015-06-01

    A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001-2100)-(1901-2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

  17. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-03-27

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  18. On the Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Projections for Infrastructure Risk Analysis and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storm surge can cause coastal hydrology changes, flooding, water quality changes, and even inundation of low-lying terrain. Strong wave actions and disruptive winds can damage water infrastructure and other environmental assets (hazardous and solid waste management facilities, w...

  19. Increasing the highest storm surge in Busan harbor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Sang Myeong; Moon, Il-Ju; Kwon, Suk Jae

    2017-04-01

    One of the most pronounced effects of climate change in coastal regions is sea level rise and storm surges. Busan in particular, the fifth largest container handling port in the world, has suffered from serious storm surges and experienced a remarkable mean sea level (MSL) rise. This study investigates a long-term variation of annual maximum surge height (AMSH) using sea level data observed in Busan over 53 years (1962 2014). The decomposition of astronomical tides and surge components shows that the AMSH has increased 18 cm over 53 years (i.e., 3.5 mm/year), which is much larger than the MSL trend (2.5 mm/year) in Busan. This significant increase in AMSH is mostly explained by the increased intensity of landfall typhoons over the Korean peninsula (KP), which is associated with the increase of sea surface temperature and the decrease of vertical wind shear at mid-latitudes of the western North Pacific. In a projected future warming environment, the combination of an increasing MSL and AMSH will accelerate the occurrence of record-breaking extreme sea levels, which will be a potential threat in Busan harbor.

  20. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Lapidez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

  1. Uncertainties in storm surge and coastal inundation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Morey, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    Storm surge modeling has developed noticeably over the past two decades marching from relatively simple two-dimensional models with simplified physics and coarse computational grid to three-dimensional complex modeling systems with wetting and drying capabilities and high-resolution grids. Although the physics of a storm surge is conceptually straight forward, it is still a challenge to provide an accurate numerical forecast of a storm surge. The presentation will focus on sources of uncertainties in storm surge modeling based on several real-case simulations of the storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico. An ongoing study on estimating the likelihood of coastal inundation along the U.S. Gulf coast will be presented.

  2. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.

    2015-12-01

    After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

  3. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  4. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  5. Integrated warning system for tsunami and storm surges in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Huating

    1989-01-01

    Tsunami and storm surges result in unusual oscillation of seal level, flooding the coastal zones and constitute the major marine disasters in China. Damage by storm surges occurs frequently. According to statistics there are 14 storm surge events exceeding 1 every year on the average. Six of them are typhoon surges and the other eight are extra-tropical surges. In general, in China, there is one severe disaster of storm surge every two years. Monitoring, forecasting and warning for storm surges, including the drop of water level, are the major part of the operational oceanographic services in China. Such a warning system has been set up and is operated by the State Oceanic Administration since 1974. The results of the historical study of tsunami in the last few years pointed out that the anomaly of sea level generated by tele-tsunamis originating in the Pacific Ocean Basin is less than 30 cm on the mainland coast, but local tsunami in the China Seas can be very dangerous. For example, more than 50,000 people were killed by a tsunami in Taiwan and in Taiwan Strait in 1781. It resulted in more deaths than any other tsunami in recorded history. However, the frequency of tsunami disaster is very low for the coast of China, averaging only one every 100 years. It is impossible to set up an independent tsunami warning system in China. It is more practical to set up an integrated warning system on tsunami and on storm surges consisting of: A sea level observing network with real time sea level data acquisition capability; A monitoring system of weather causing the storm surges and of seismic stations monitoring tsunamigenic earthquakes; A tidal prediction scheme for operational use; A forecasting scheme for storm surges and tsunami analysis; The means for warning dissemination. (author). 8 refs, 4 figs, 3 tabs

  6. Storm surges in the White and Barents Seas: formation, statistics, analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korablina, Anastasia; Arkhipkin, Victor

    2017-04-01

    Arctic seas storm surges investigation are high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the navigation safety. It is important to study the surges variability, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. White and Barents Seas storm surges are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and Atlantic from the west. The surge height was defined as the excess of the level that was obtained as the difference between the observed level and subtracting tide level and low-frequency level. The period of low-frequency level oscillation was determined by spectral analysis of the in-situ data. ADCIRC model is used for calculating the storm surge height. We did the calculations on unstructured grid with variable step from 50 to 5000 m. The ADCIRC model was based on the data on wind field, the sea level pressure, the concentration of ice reanalysis CFSR (1979-2010) in increments 0.3°, CFSv2 (2011-2015) in increments 0.2°. On the boundary conditions harmonic constants from Finite Element Solution tide model 2004 (FES2004) in increments 1/8° were set. The following stations on the coast Varandey, Pechora Bay, Chosha Bay, Severodvinsk, Onega, Solovki and other were selected for the storm surges statistical analysis in the period 1979-2015. The number of storm surges (> 0.3 m) long-term variability was obtained, the number of surges at a height (m) range (0.3-0.6, 0.6-0.9, 0.9-1.2, >1.2) was estimated. It shows that 1980 and 1998 are the years with the fewest number storms. For example, the largest number of storm surge (53) was observed in 1995 in Varandey. The height of the surge, possible only once in 100 years, is counted. This maximum height (m) of the surge was noted in Varandey (4.1), Chosha Bay (3.4), Barents Sea, Onega Bay (2

  7. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  8. Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

    2016-08-01

    Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

  9. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

  10. Storm surges in the Western Black Sea. Operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. MUNGOV

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The frequency of the storm surges in the Black Sea is lower than that in other regions of the World Ocean but they cause significant damages as the magnitude of the sea level set-up is up to 7-8 times greater than that of other sea level variations. New methods and systems for storm surge forecasting and studying their statistical characteristics are absolutely necessary for the purposes of the coastal zone management. The operational forecasting storm surge model of Meteo-France was adopted for the Black Sea in accordance with the bilateral agreement between Meteo-France and NINMH. The model was verified using tide-gauge observations for the strongest storms observed along the Bulgarian coast over the last 10 years.

  11. A prediction of storm surge using the artificial neural networks (ANNs) based on a JTWC best track and tide-surge model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Junghyun; Yuk, Jin-Hee; An, Jooneun; Joh, Minsu; Kim, Seung-woo

    2017-04-01

    There is huge damage caused by tropical typhoons every year in the South Korea. The storm surge due to landing of typhoon leads to severe flooding and casualty damage in coastal areas. Generally, the storm surge height is defined as the difference between the sea levels observed and predicted considering tide only. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the typhoon storm surge height, which can increase the mean water level from only 1 to more than 2 m by the typhoon characteristics in Korea. To efficiently describe the phenomenon of storm surge in the coastal area, many researchers have used the numerical model of fluid dynamics. However, recently, research activities based on not the numerical model but big data have gotten a lot of attention and the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) among these activities have shown powerful pattern classification and pattern recognition capabilities. The ANNs provide an attractive alternative tool for both forecasting researchers and practitioners. In particular, the ANNs have been widely applied to various areas to overcome the nonlinear natural disaster problems. This paper is aimed to propose the application of the ANNs for prediction of the storm surge. Many storm surge data stored for a long time are required to predict storm surge accurately using ANNs. But, because of the lack of storm surge data in the past years, we calculated storm surges due to 53 typhoons which had affected the South Korea from 1978 to 2014 using a finite element tide-surge model (ADvanced CIRCulation Model) and the typhoon information of JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center). Factors such as the six hourly best track data of typhoon, head direction and velocity of typhoons, maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, radius of the last closed isobar, and radius of max winds were used to test the accuracy of the suggested ANNs model. The normalized root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC

  12. The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavender, Sally L.; Hoeke, Ron K.; Abbs, Deborah J.

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) result in widespread damage associated with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. TC Yasi was one of the most powerful TCs to impact the Queensland coast since records began. Prior to Yasi, the SSTs in the Coral Sea were higher than average by 1-2 °C, primarily due to the 2010/2011 La Niña event. In this study, a conceptually simple idealised sensitivity analysis is performed using a high-resolution regional model to gain insight into the influence of SST on the track, size, intensity and associated rainfall of TC Yasi. A set of nine simulations with uniform SST anomalies of between -4 and 4 °C applied to the observed SSTs are analysed. The resulting surface winds and pressure are used to force a barotropic storm surge model to examine the influence of SST on the associated storm surge of TC Yasi. An increase in SST results in an increase in intensity, precipitation and integrated kinetic energy of the storm; however, there is little influence on track prior to landfall. In addition to an increase in precipitation, there is a change in the spatial distribution of precipitation as the SST increases. Decreases in SSTs result in an increase in the radius of maximum winds due to an increase in the asymmetry of the storm, although the radius of gale-force winds decreases. These changes in the TC characteristics also lead to changes in the associated storm surge. Generally, cooler (warmer) SSTs lead to reduced (enhanced) maximum storm surges. However, the increase in surge reaches a maximum with an increase in SST of 2 °C. Any further increase in SST does not affect the maximum surge but the total area and duration of the simulated surge increases with increasing upper ocean temperatures. A large decrease in maximum storm surge height occurs when a negative SST anomaly is applied, suggesting if TC Yasi had occurred during non-La Niña conditions the associated storm surge may have been greatly diminished, with a decrease in storm surge

  13. Impacts of Storm Surge Mitigation Strategies on Aboveground Storage Tank Chemical Spill Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, C.; Bass, B. J.; Bernier, C.; Samii, A.; Dawson, C.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    The Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located in the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston region of the upper Texas Coast, is one of the busiest waterways in the United States and is home to one of the largest petrochemical complexes in the world. Due to the proximity of the HSC to Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, chemical spills resulting from storm surge damage to aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) pose serious threats to the environment, residential communities, and national/international markets whose activities in the HSC generate billions of dollars annually. In an effort to develop a comprehensive storm surge mitigation strategy for Galveston Bay and its constituents, Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center proposed two structural storm surge mitigation concepts, the Mid Bay Structure (MBS) and the Lower Bay Structure (LBS) as components of the Houston-Galveston Area Protection System (H-GAPS) project. The MBS consists of levees along the HSC and a navigational gate across the channel, and the LBS consists of a navigation gate and environmental gates across Bolivar Road. The impacts of these two barrier systems on the fate of AST chemical spills in the HSC have previously been unknown. This study applies the coupled 2D SWAN+ADCIRC model to simulate hurricane storm surge circulation within the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay due to a synthetic storm which results in approximately 250-year surge levels in Galveston Bay. The SWAN+ADCIRC model is run using high-resolution computational meshes that incorporate the MBS and LBS scenarios, separately. The resulting wind and water velocities are then fed into a Lagrangian particle transport model to simulate the spill trajectories of the ASTs most likely to fail during the 250-year proxy storm. Results from this study illustrate how each storm surge mitigation strategy impacts the transport of chemical spills (modeled as Lagrangian particles) during storm surge as

  14. East China Sea Storm Surge Modeling and Visualization System: The Typhoon Soulik Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengan Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available East China Sea (ECS Storm Surge Modeling System (ESSMS is developed based on Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS. Case simulation is performed on the Typhoon Soulik, which landed on the coastal region of Fujian Province, China, at 6 pm of July 13, 2013. Modeling results show that the maximum tide level happened at 6 pm, which was also the landing time of Soulik. This accordance may lead to significant storm surge and water level rise in the coastal region. The water level variation induced by high winds of Soulik ranges from −0.1 to 0.15 m. Water level generally increases near the landing place, in particular on the left hand side of the typhoon track. It is calculated that 0.15 m water level rise in this region can cause a submerge increase of ~0.2 km2, which could be catastrophic to the coastal environment and the living. Additionally, a Globe Visualization System (GVS is realized on the basis of World Wind to better provide users with the typhoon/storm surge information. The main functions of GVS include data indexing, browsing, analyzing, and visualization. GVS is capable of facilitating the precaution and mitigation of typhoon/storm surge in ESC in combination with ESSMS.

  15. Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

    2017-12-01

    The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010

  16. Rapid assessment tool for tropical cyclone waves and storm surge hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Rosengaus, Michel; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Camacho-Magaña, Victor

    2017-04-01

    Mexico is under the constant threat of tropical cyclones generated in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific oceans. While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in both basins and providing watch and warning areas information for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, they are not responsible to issue waves and storm surge hazards. This work presents a quick assessment tool for waves and storm surge hazards developed under conditions that are common to developing countries: tight budget and time constraints, as well as limited numerical modeling capabilities. The system is based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  17. Possibility Of Generating Significant Storm Surge On The Western Seaboard Of Metro Manila, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.; Tablazon, J. P.; Dasallas, L. L.; Goting, P. G.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The Philippines, located in the Northwestern Pacific Typhoon gateway to Asia, is considered one of the most susceptible to tropical cyclone related hazards. One of the most disastrous effects of tropical cyclones is storm surge. With Metro Manila being a coastal area and the most populous region in the country, with approximately 12.8 million people residing in it, it is of great interest to determine the possibility of generating significant level of storm surge in the country's capital. The necessity to determine the storm surge susceptibility was brought upon by the effect of Typhoon Haiyan on eastern Visayas in 2013, where more than 6,000 people died and resulted to about 2.86 billion dollars' worth of damages. To achieve the objectives, the actual tracks and wind speed of historical typhoon (JMA data since 1951) was mapped for the Philippines. The simulated wind speed map shows that the maximum winds are mostly experienced on the eastern side of the country; with a considerable decrease in wind intensity as the typhoon reaches the western seaboard due to land surface. The Haiyan-strength wind speed is then applied to the actual historical typhoon tracks to determine the hypothetical values of wind speed as a typhoon with Haiyan intensity reached Metro Manila. Results show that, if a typhoon with a Haiyan-like intensity is to traverse tracks like those of Rita 1978, Collen 1992, Sybil 1995, Bebinca 2000 and Xangsane 2000, there is a huge possibility of generating storm surge height of 3.9 to 5.6 m in the western seaboard of Metro Manila, even after considering the diminishing effect of surface friction.

  18. Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Integration for Storm Surge Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2013-01-01

    Integrating coarse temporal sampling by the satellite altimeter in the deep ocean with the high temporal sampling at tide gauges in sparse location along the coast has been used to improve the forecast of high water in the North Sea along the Danish Coast and storm surges along the Northeast coas...

  19. Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

  20. Validating the calculated reliability and availability in Dutch storm surge barriers (and other infrastructural works)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn van Willigen, G.K.; Meerveld, H. van

    2016-01-01

    The reliability and availability of the Dutch storm surge barriers are calculated by probabilistic risk assessment and various underlying risk analysis methods. These calculations, however, focus on the numerical probability of the storm surge barrier functioning adequately, and the implementation

  1. Storm-surge flooding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terenzi, John; Ely, Craig R.; Jorgenson, M. Torre

    2014-01-01

    Coastal regions of Alaska are regularly affected by intense storms of ocean origin, the frequency and intensity of which are expected to increase as a result of global climate change. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), situated in western Alaska on the eastern edge of the Bering Sea, is one of the largest deltaic systems in North America. Its low relief makes it especially susceptible to storm-driven flood tides and increases in sea level. Little information exists on the extent of flooding caused by storm surges in western Alaska and its effects on salinization, shoreline erosion, permafrost thaw, vegetation, wildlife, and the subsistence-based economy. In this paper, we summarize storm flooding events in the Bering Sea region of western Alaska during 1913 – 2011 and map both the extent of inland flooding caused by autumn storms on the central YKD, using Radarsat-1 and MODIS satellite imagery, and the drift lines, using high-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery and field surveys. The largest storm surges occurred in autumn and were associated with high tides and strong (> 65 km hr-1) southwest winds. Maximum inland extent of flooding from storm surges was 30.3 km in 2005, 27.4 km in 2006, and 32.3 km in 2011, with total flood area covering 47.1%, 32.5%, and 39.4% of the 6730 km2 study area, respectively. Peak stages for the 2005 and 2011 storms were 3.1 m and 3.3 m above mean sea level, respectively—almost as high as the 3.5 m amsl elevation estimated for the largest storm observed (in November 1974). Several historically abandoned village sites lie within the area of inundation of the largest flood events. With projected sea level rise, large storms are expected to become more frequent and cover larger areas, with deleterious effects on freshwater ponds, non-saline habitats, permafrost, and landscapes used by nesting birds and local people.

  2. Sedimentological recorders of the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan storm surge from contrasting Philippine coastal landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soria, J. L.; Switzer, A.; Siringan, F. P.; Pilarczyk, J.; Li, L.

    2016-12-01

    Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 was an extremely intense and fast moving typhoon. It claimed more than 6000 lives, caused widespread damage, and affected more than 16 million people along its path in central Philippines. Overwash associated with the 5 to 8 m storm surge of Typhoon Haiyan also left behind a variety of geomorphic and sedimentological imprints, which provide a valuable dataset for modern storm deposits in different landform settings. Here we only present a synthesis of the sedimentological imprints from sites that span clastic, mixed clastic-carbonate, and non-clastic carbonate coasts, and were affected by contrasting surge mechanisms. On the sheltered clastic coast where overwash was dominated by wind-induced setup surge, the overwash sediments occur as a sand unit of no more than 20 cm near the shore, and then spread into sub-cm thin sandsheet that blanket pre-Haiyan soil surfaces up to 1.6 km inland. Thicker sections of the overwash sand exhibit sharp depositional contacts, planar stratification, and generally coarsen upward and fine landward. On the mixed clastic-carbonate coast, the Typhoon Haiyan deposits are generally thin (reef flat surface, and a sand sheet that blanketed the coastal plain up to 300 m distance inland. On the open coast, inverse modeling of flow velocities derived from boulder dimensions, sediment thickness, and grain size distributions indicate that the storm surge travelled across the wide reef flat and inundated the coast with flow velocities exceeding 4 ms-1. The sediment data support the tsunami-like surge characteristics of Haiyan, and although Haiyan's overwash sediments are clearly representative of Philippine modern storm deposits, they should however be used with caution in the interpretation of the geologic record. This cautionary note highlights the continuing issue of differentiating storms from tsunamis in many settings and is particularly important for tropical coasts that are similarly exposed to the impacts of both

  3. Development of Storm Surge Hazard Maps and Advisory System for the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagymay, Alfredo; Caro, Carl Vincent; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Garnet Goting, Prince

    2016-04-01

    The Philippines, located in the most active region of cyclogenesis in the world, experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually. Strong winds brought by tropical cyclones, among other factors, cause storm surges that inundate the coastal areas of the country. As an archipelago with the fourth longest coastline in the world, the country is expose to the threats of storm surges. This was manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013, which devastated the country and left 6,293 deaths and approximately USD 2 billion worth of damages. To prevent such disaster from happening again, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) developed a Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) that aims to warn communities in coastal areas against impending floods due to storm surges. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate 721 tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1951-2013. The resulting storm surge time series from the simulations were added to the maximum tide levels from the WXTide software for the 4,996 observation points placed nearshore in the entire country. The storm tide levels were categorized into four groups based on their peak height to create the SSA - SSA 1 (0.01m to 2m), SSA 2 (2.01m to 3m), SSA 3 (3.01m to 4m), and SSA 4 (4m and above). The time series for each advisory level was used in inundation modelling using FLO-2D, a two-dimensional flood modeling software that uses continuity and dynamic wave momentum equation. The model produced probable extent, depth of inundation, and hazard level for each advisory level. The SSA hazard maps are used as reference to warn communities that are likely to be affected by storm surges. Advisory is released 24 hours in advance and is updated every six hours in the Project NOAH website. It is also being utilized in the pre-disaster risk assessment of the national government agencies and local government units in designing appropriate response to

  4. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S.

    2016-01-01

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters. PMID:26907313

  5. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S

    2016-02-19

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters.

  6. Storm surge modeling of Superstorm Sandy in the New York City Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benimoff, A. I.; Blanton, B. O.; Dzedzits, E.; Fritz, W. J.; Kress, M.; Muzio, P.; Sela, L.

    2013-12-01

    Even though the New York/New Jersey area does not lie within the typical 'hurricane belt', recent events and the historical record indicate that large infrequent tropical storms have had direct hits on the region, with impacts being amplified due to the nearly right angle bend in the coastline. The recent plan unveiled by New York City's Mayor Bloomberg lays out mitigation strategies to protect the region's communities, infrastructure, and assets from future storms, and numerical simulation of storm surge and wave hazards driven by potential hurricanes plays a central role in developing and evaluating these strategies. To assist in local planning, recovery, and decision-making, we have used the tide, storm surge, and wind wave model ADCIRC+SWAN to simulate storm surge in one of the most populated areas of the United States: the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. We have generated a new high-resolution triangular finite-element model grid for the region from recent USGS data as well as recent city topographic maps at 2-foot (0.6m) contour intervals, nautical charts, and details of shipping channels. Our hindcast simulations are compared against Superstorm Sandy. We used the City University of New York High Performance Computing Center's Cray XE6tm at the College of Staten Island for these simulations. Hindcasting and analysis of the Superstorm Sandy storm surge and waves indicates that our simulations produce a reasonable representation of actual events. The grid will be used in an ADCIRC-based forecasting system implementation for the region.

  7. Exploring Water Level Sensitivity for Metropolitan New York during Sandy (2012 Using Ensemble Storm Surge Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Colle

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes storm surge simulations made for Sandy (2012 for the Metropolitan New York (NYC area using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC model forced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The atmospheric forecast uncertainty was quantified using 11-members from an atmospheric Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF system. A control WRF member re-initialized every 24 h demonstrated the capability of the WRF-ADCIRC models to realistically simulate the 2.83 m surge and 4.40 m storm tide (surge + astronomical tide above mean lower low water (MLLW for NYC. Starting about four days before landfall, an ensemble of model runs based on the 11 “best” meteorological predictions illustrate how modest changes in the track (20–100 km and winds (3–5 m s−1 of Sandy approaching the New Jersey coast and NYC can lead to relatively large (0.50–1.50 m storm surge variations. The ensemble also illustrates the extreme importance of the timing of landfall relative to local high tide. The observed coastal flooding was not the worst case for this particular event. Had Sandy made landfall at differing times, locations and stages of the tide, peak water levels could have been up to 0.5 m higher than experienced.

  8. Cumulative impacts of hurricanes on Florida mangrove ecosystems: Sediment deposition, storm surges and vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Balentine, K.; Tiling, G.; Ward, G.A.; Whelan, K.R.T.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have shaped the structure of mangrove forests in the Everglades via wind damage, storm surges and sediment deposition. Immediate effects include changes to stem size-frequency distributions and to species relative abundance and density. Long-term impacts to mangroves are poorly understood at present. We examine impacts of Hurricane Wilma on mangroves and compare the results to findings from three previous storms (Labor Day, Donna, Andrew). Surges during Wilma destroyed ??? 1,250 ha of mangroves and set back recovery that started following Andrew. Data from permanent plots affected by Andrew and Wilma showed no differences among species or between hurricanes for stem mortality or basal area lost. Hurricane damage was related to hydro-geomorphic type of forest. Basin mangroves suffered significantly more damage than riverine or island mangroves. The hurricane by forest type interaction was highly significant. Andrew did slightly more damage to island mangroves. Wilma did significantly more damage to basin forests. This is most likely a result of the larger and more spatially extensive storm surge produced by Wilma. Forest damage was not related to amount of sediment deposited. Analyses of reports from Donna and the Labor Day storm indicate that some sites have recovered following catastrophic disturbance. Other sites have been permanently converted into a different ecosystem, namely intertidal mudflats. Our results indicate that mangroves are not in a steady state as has been recently claimed. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  9. Simulation and Validation of a Storm Surge in Bays and Estuaries With Complex Coastline Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Morey, S. L.

    2008-12-01

    Simulation of nearshore ocean dynamics in a region with a complex coastline, commonly found along bays and estuaries, has been a challenging task for modelers. Over the last decade, unstructured grid models based on finite-element and finite-volume methods have been gaining popularity within the ocean modeling community. Application of this type of model facilitates accurate representation of the nearshore processes in model domains with bays, estuaries, and river channels. This study demonstrates the utility of applying an unstructured grid model for simulation and analysis of a storm surge in such a region. A high-resolution storm surge model of Apalachee Bay in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is developed using an unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) with wetting and drying capabilities. The model is applied to the case of Hurricane Dennis (July 2005). This storm caused underpredicted severe flooding of the Apalachee Bay coastal area and communities located inland up rivers that has yet to be adequately explained. Accurate resolution of the complicated geometry of the coastal region and waterways in the model reveals substantial spatial variability in the amplitude and timing of the maximum water level and processes responsible for the unanticipated high storm tide in the area. In this study, a methodology of validating a storm surge simulations using high-water marks is illustrated. Model experiments suggest that excessive flooding in the coastal zone during Dennis was caused by additive effects of coincident high tides, wave setup, and a propagating shelf wave that added to the locally wind generated surge.

  10. Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

  11. An Approach to Remove the Systematic Bias from the Storm Surge forecasts in the Venice Lagoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canestrelli, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this work a novel approach is proposed for removing the systematic bias from the storm surge forecast computed by a two-dimensional shallow-water model. The model covers both the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas and provides the forecast at the entrance of the Venice Lagoon. The wind drag coefficient at the water-air interface is treated as a calibration parameter, with a different value for each range of wind velocities and wind directions. This sums up to a total of 16-64 parameters to be calibrated, depending on the chosen resolution. The best set of parameters is determined by means of an optimization procedure, which minimizes the RMS error between measured and modeled water level in Venice for the period 2011-2015. It is shown that a bias is present, for which the peaks of wind velocities provided by the weather forecast are largely underestimated, and that the calibration procedure removes this bias. When the calibrated model is used to reproduce events not included in the calibration dataset, the forecast error is strongly reduced, thus confirming the quality of our procedure. The proposed approach it is not site-specific and could be applied to different situations, such as storm surges caused by intense hurricanes.

  12. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  13. Effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge in the Taiwan Strait: Insights from Typhoon Morakot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiaolong; Pan, Weiran; Zheng, Xiangjing; Zhou, Shenjie; Tao, Xiaoqin

    2017-08-01

    The effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge are investigated by a two-dimensional wave-current coupling model through simulations of Typhoon Morakot in the Taiwan Strait. The results show that wind wave and slope of sea floor govern wave setup modulations within the nearshore surf zone. Wave setup during Morakot can contribute up to 24% of the total storm surge with a maximum value of 0.28 m. The large wave setup commonly coincides with enhanced radiation stress gradient, which is itself associated with transfer of wave momentum flux. Water levels are to leading order in modulating significant wave height inside the estuary. High water levels due to tidal change and storm surge stabilize the wind wave and decay wave breaking. Outside of the estuary, waves are mainly affected by the current-induced modification of wind energy input to the wave generation. By comparing the observed significant wave height and water level with the results from uncoupled and coupled simulations, the latter shows a better agreement with the observations. It suggests that wave-current interaction plays an important role in determining the extreme storm surge and wave height in the study area and should not be neglected in a typhoon forecast.

  14. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  15. The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three-dimensional simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, Y. Peter; Lapetina, Andrew; Ma, Gangfeng

    2012-10-01

    Significant buffering of storm surges by vegetation canopies has been suggested by limited observations and simple numerical studies, particularly following recent Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Here we simulate storm surge and inundation over idealized topographies using a three-dimensional vegetation-resolving storm surge model coupled to a shallow water wave model and show that a sufficiently wide and tall vegetation canopy reduces inundation on land by 5 to 40 percent, depending upon various storm and canopy parameters. Effectiveness of the vegetation in dissipating storm surge and inundation depends on the intensity and forward speed of the hurricane, as well as the density, height, and width of the vegetation canopy. Reducing the threat to coastal vegetation from development, sea level rise, and other anthropogenic factors would help to protect many coastal regions against storm surges.

  16. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    configured to take advantage of far-field information on developing tidal surges provided by tide gauges in NW Scotland (the 'external surge'), supported by observations of wind and atmospheric pressure and the predicted astronomical tide at Immingham. Missing data can cause problems with ANN models and a novel aspect of our implementation is the use of multiple redundant inputs (nearby tide gauges that experience a high degree of surge coherence) to synthesise a single external surge input. A similar approach is taken with meteorological forcings, creating an ANN that is resilient against data drop-outs within its input vector. The ANN generates 6 to 24 hour surge forecasts at Immingham with accuracy better than the present UK Storm Tide Warning Service. These can be used to cross-check national forecasts, generate more accurate estimates of likely flood depths, timings and durations and trigger planned responses to severe forecasts. Crucially, this capability can be 'owned' by the port operator, which encourages the development of a shared understanding of storm surge hazards and the challenges of port resilience planning between scientist and stakeholder.

  17. A numerical study of vegetation impact on reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelin, Hu; Qin, Chen; Wang, Hongqing

    2014-01-01

    Coastal wetlands play a unique role in extreme hurricane events. The impact of wetlands on storm surge depends on multiple factors including vegetation, landscape, and storm characteristics. The Delft3D model, in which vegetation effects on flow and turbulence are explicitly incorporated, was applied to the semi-enclosed Breton Sound (BS) estuary in coastal Louisiana to investigate the wetland impact. Guided by extensive field observations, a series of numerical experiments were conducted based on variations of actual vegetation properties and storm parameters from Hurricane Isaac in 2012. Both the vegetation-induced maximum surge reduction (MSR) and maximum surge reduction rate (MSRR) increased with stem height and stem density, and were more sensitive to stem height. The MSR and MSRR decreased significantly with increasing wind intensity. The MSRR was the highest with a fast-moving weak storm. It was also found that the MSRR varied proportionally to the expression involving the maximum bulk velocity and surge over the area of interest, and was more dependent on the maximum bulk surge. Both MSR and MSRR appeared to increase when the area of interest decreased from the whole BS estuary to the upper estuary. Within the range of the numerical experiments, the maximum simulated MSR and MSRR over the upper estuary were 0.7 m and 37%, respectively.

  18. The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

  19. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  20. Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Integration for Storm Surge Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2013-01-01

    Integrating coarse temporal sampling by the satellite altimeter in the deep ocean with the high temporal sampling at tide gauges in sparse location along the coast has been used to improve the forecast of high water in the North Sea along the Danish Coast and storm surges along the Northeast coast...... gauge recordings and investigated the capability of the satellite altimeters to capture these in the sea surface height. On the European coast we find that when two or more satellites are available we capture more than 90% of the extreme sea level events. In the Great Barrier Reef section...... tide gauges with satellite altimetry for forecasting high water at the city of Townville in North East Australia....

  1. Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea: The problem and its prediction

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dube, S.K.; Rao, A.D.; Sinha, P.C.; Murty, T.S.; Bahulayan, N.

    to annual economic losses in these countries. Thus, the real time monitoring and warning of storm surge is of great concern for this region. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of major aspects of the storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal...

  2. Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

    2014-07-01

    Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.

  3. Comparison of two recent storm surge events based on results of field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya; Mikami, Takahito; Esteban, Miguel; Takagi, Hiroshi; Maell, Martin; Iwamoto, Takumu

    2017-10-01

    This paper compares two different types of storm surge disaster based on field surveys. Two cases: a severe storm surge flood with its height of over 5 m due to Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippine, and inundation of storm surge around Nemuro city in Hokkaido of Japan with its maximum surge height of 2.8 m caused by extra-tropical cyclone are taken as examples. For the case of the Typhoon Haiyan, buildings located in coastal region were severely affected due to a rapidly increase in ocean surface. The non-engineering buildings were partially or completely destroyed due to their debris transported to an inner bay region. In fact, several previous reports indicated two unique features, bore-like wave and remarkably high speed currents. These characteristics of the storm surge may contribute to a wide-spread corruption for the buildings around the affected region. Furthermore, in the region where the surge height was nearly 3 m, the wooden houses were completely or partially destroyed. On the other hand, in Nemuro city, a degree of suffering in human and facility caused by the storm surge is minor. There was almost no partially destroyed residential houses even though the height of storm surge reached nearly 2.8 m. An observation in the tide station in Nemuro indicated that this was a usual type of storm surge, which showed a gradual increase of sea level height in several hours without possessing the unique characteristics like Typhoon Haiyan. As a result, not only the height of storm surge but also the robustness of the buildings and characteristics of storm surge, such as bore like wave and strong currents, determined the existent of devastation in coastal regions.

  4. Predicting Typhoon Induced Storm Surges Using the Operational Ocean Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Hyup You

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was performed to compare storm surges simulated by the operational storm surges/tide forecast system (STORM : Storm surges/Tide Operational Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA with observations from 30 coastal tidal stations during nine typhoons that occurred between 2005 and 2007. The results (bias showed that for cases of overestimation (or underestimation, storm surges tended to be overestimated (as well as underestimated at all coastal stations. The maximum positive bias was approximately 6.92 cm for Typhoon Ewiniar (2006, while the maximum negative bias was approximately -12.06 cm for Typhoon Khanun (2005. The maximum and minimum root mean square errors (RMSEs were 14.61 and 6.78 cm, which occurred for Typhoons Khanun (2005 and Usagi (2007, respectively. For all nine typhoons, total averaged RMSE was approximately 10.2 cm. Large differences between modeled and observed storm surges occurred in two cases. In the first, a very weak typhoon, such as Typhoon Khanun (2005, caused low storm surges. In the other, exemplified by Typhoon Nari (2007, there were errors in the predicted typhoon strength used as input data for the storm surge model.

  5. Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

  6. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Drews

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS. We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  7. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness....... These statistics are very sensitive to the assessments of past events, and to future sea level change. The probability of a major storm surge from the Baltic Sea hitting the Copenhagen metropolitan area is officially determined by the Danish Coastal Authority based on tide gauge records. We have a long history...... for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...

  8. Investigation of surge protective devices operation of a wind generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrov, D.; Vasileva, M.

    2008-01-01

    The interest to the investments in a wind energetics increases in the last years. The wind energetics is the fastest developing direction in the energetics in global scale. The wind energy is more attractive because its prices are lower in comparison of the other technologies for generating energy. The right choice of the surge protective devices has the important meaning on building and exploitation of the wind generators. The aim of this paper is investigation of the surge protective devices operation when they are installation to a wind generator. (authors)

  9. Idealised modelling of storm surges in large-scale coastal basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Wenlong

    2015-01-01

    Coastal areas around the world are frequently attacked by various types of storms, threatening human life and property. This study aims to understand storm surge processes in large-scale coastal basins, particularly focusing on the influences of geometry, topography and storm characteristics on the

  10. Numerical modelling of tides and storm surges in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sindhu, B.

    The destruction due to storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coast of Bay of Bengal. Amongst other natural disasters affecting the coast of India and Bangladesh, storm surges stand out, so far, as the most damaging and as an agent of death... are at higher risks of flooding during cyclonic events. In addition, tidal ranges in the northern Bay of Bengal are very high and the destruction caused by surges can be massive if the surges occur at the time of high tide. Thus real time monitoring...

  11. The Effect of Coastal Development on Storm Surge Flooding in Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Barrier islands and associated bays along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are a favorite place for both living and visiting. Many of them are vulnerable to storm surge flooding because of low elevations and constantly being subjected to the impacts of storms. The population increase and urban development along the barrier coast have altered the shoreline configuration, resulting in a dramatic change in the coastal flooding pattern in some areas. Here we present such a case based on numerical simulations of storm surge flooding caused by the1926 hurricane in the densely populated area surrounding Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The construction of harbor and navigation channels, and the development of real estate and the roads connecting islands along Biscayne Bay have changed the geometry of Biscayne Bay since 1910s. Storm surge simulations show that the Port of Miami and Dodge Island constructed by human after 1950 play an important role in changing storm surge inundation pattern along Biscayne Bay. Dodge Island enhances storm surge and increases inundation in the area south of the island, especially at the mouth of Miami River (Downtown of Miami), and reduces storm surge flooding in the area north of the island, especially in Miami Beach. If the Hurricane Miami of 1926 happened today, the flooding area would be reduced by 55% and 20% in the Miami Beach and North Miami areas, respectively. Consequently, it would prevent 400 million of property and 10 thousand people from surge flooding according to 2010 U.S census and 2007 property tax data. Meanwhile, storm water would penetrate further inland south of Dodge Island and increase the flooding area by 25% in the Miami River and Downtown Miami areas. As a result, 200 million of property and five thousand people would be impacted by storm surge.

  12. Modeling Flood Inundation Induced by River Flow and Storm Surges over a River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bo Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Low-lying coastal regions and their populations are at risk during storm surge events and high freshwater discharges from upriver. An integrated storm surge and flood inundation modeling system was used to simulate storm surge and inundation in the Tsengwen River basin and the adjacent coastal area in southern Taiwan. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with an unstructured grid was used, which was driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries and freshwater discharge at the upriver boundary. The model was validated against the observed water levels for three typhoon events. The simulation results for the model were in reasonable agreement with the observational data. The model was then applied to investigate the effects of a storm surge, freshwater discharge, and a storm surge combined with freshwater discharge during an extreme typhoon event. The super Typhoon Haiyan (2013 was artificially shifted to hit Taiwan: the modeling results showed that the inundation area and depth would cause severe overbank flow and coastal flooding for a 200 year return period flow. A high-resolution grid model is essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and inundation.

  13. Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-01-15

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables the interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations and estimates of the sea surface height and other model variables that are used for storm surge prediction. Coastal inundation, caused by hurricanes and tropical storms, poses large risks for today\\'s societies. High-fidelity numerical models of water levels driven by hurricane-force winds are required to predict these events, posing a challenging computational problem, and even though computational models continue to improve, uncertainties in storm surge forecasts are inevitable. Today, this uncertainty is often exposed to the user by running the simulation many times with different parameters or inputs following a Monte-Carlo framework in which uncertainties are represented as stochastic quantities. This results in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. While the resulting datasets are very comprehensive, they are also huge in size and thus hard to visualize and interpret. In this paper, we tackle this problem by means of an interactive and integrated visual analysis system. By harnessing the power of modern graphics processing units for visualization as well as computation, our system allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial and temporal regions without delay. In addition, our system provides advanced visualizations to highlight the uncertainty or show the complete distribution of the simulations at user-defined positions over the complete time series of the prediction. We highlight the benefits of our system by presenting its application in a real-world scenario using a simulation of Hurricane Ike.

  14. An European historical reconstruction of sea surface dynamics (waves and storm surge) for coastal impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menendez, Melisa; Perez, Jorge; Cid, Alba; Castanedo, Sonia; Losada, Inigo; Medina, Raul; Mendez, Fernando

    2015-04-01

    Despite their outstanding relevance in coastal processes, a study of the sea surface dynamics due to atmospheric wind and pressure variations are rather limited in comparison with the mean sea level rise. Data of waves and surges along the European region are scarce and in-homogeneous, not only in terms of spatial coverage but also in terms of temporal coverage. This study presents two databases focused on a historical reconstruction of: (i) the wind-generated waves (GOW) and (ii) the meteorological sea level component (GOS). The GOW and GOS datasets cover the whole European coast (North Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea) at high-spatial resolution from 1979 to present. The meteorological sea level component (storm surge) has been generated by the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). To take into account non-linear interactions between tides and surges, both dynamics were simulated jointly. Final results of meteorological component of sea level were obtained by subtracting the astronomical tide from the simulated sea surface. The model was set-up for Europe using an orthogonal grid, with a horizontal resolution ranging between 3.5 to 11 km. A spatial domain of approximately 5 km was used for the Black Sea. Local coastal waves can be the integrated result of the ocean surface over a large region of influence. GOW-Europe is designed from a multigrid approach based on the overlapping of two-way nested domains. The coarser spatial resolution along the European coast of GOW is 15 km. The generation and propagation of the sea surface waves of GOW-Europe are simulated with the model WAVEWATCH III v4.18. Effects of non-linear wave-wave interactions, whitecapping and depth-induced refraction are considered in the propagation model. In order to validate GOW and GOS over Europe with available observations, an exhaustive comparison with in-situ and remote measurements was developed. In-situ buoys and tide-gauges are used to compare hourly time

  15. East Coast storm surges provide unique climate record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keqi; Douglas, Bruce C.; Leatherman, Stephen P.

    Coastal storms repeatedly hit the U.S. East Coast, costing many billions of dollars in losses. In 1992 Hurricane Andrew alone caused about $35-40 billion in damage. In addition to property damage, coastal storms are the major contributors to beach and dune erosion, overwash processes, and the opening of tidal inlets on barrier islands. What changes, if any, can we expect in coastal storm activity and intensity as global temperatures rise?

  16. The impact of climate change on storm surges over Irish waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shiyu; McGrath, Ray; Hanafin, Jenny; Lynch, Peter; Semmler, Tido; Nolan, Paul

    The Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) of Rutgers University is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic climate change on storm surges over Irish waters, particularly on the extreme values. Two experiments were performed to confirm the validity of the approach in the current climate: the first focused on hindcasting the surge generated by a storm in early 2002 while the second provided surge statistics by running the model for the period 1990-2002; in both cases ROMS was driven with ERA-40 forcing fields. The results show that the model is capable of simulating both specific surge events and surge climate statistics with reasonable accuracy (order of 10 cm). Model outputs were also compared spatially against satellite altimetry data, corrected for long wavelength errors, from 1993 to 2001. The ROMS model consistently reproduces the sea level changes in the Irish Sea, and over the waters to the south and west of Ireland. For the investigation of the impact of the climate change on storm surges, the same configuration of ROMS was driven by atmospheric forcing fields downscaled from ECHAM5/OM1 data for the past (1961-1990) and future (2031-2060; SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario); the downscaled data were produced using the Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere model (RCA3). The results show an increase in storm surge events around Irish coastal areas in the future projection, except along the south Irish coast; there is also a significant increase in the height of the extreme surges along the west and east coasts, with most of the extreme surges occurring in wintertime.

  17. A synthesis of the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan storm surge, the deposits and the post event state of the coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, A.; Soria, J. L.; Jessica, P.; Siringan, F. P.; Tang, H.; Weiss, R.; Khan, N.; Fritz, H. M.; Manglicmot, M.; Gallentes, A.; Lau, A.; Cheong, A.; Koh, T.

    2017-12-01

    Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 was an extremely intense and fast moving typhoon. The typhoon claimed more than 6000 lives, caused widespread damage, and affected more than 16 million people along its path in central Philippines. Overwash associated with the 5 to 8 m storm surge of Typhoon Haiyan also left behind a variety of geomorphic and sedimentological imprints, which provide a valuable dataset for modern storm deposits in different landform settings. Here we present a synthesis of the geological and geomorphological record from sites that span clastic, mixed clastic-carbonate, and non-clastic carbonate coasts affected by contrasting surge mechanisms. On the sheltered clastic coast where overwash was dominated by wind-induced setup surge, the overwash sediments occur as a sand unit of no more than 20 cm near the shore, and then spread into sub-cm thin sandsheet that blanket pre-Haiyan soil surfaces up to 1.6 km inland. Thicker sections of the overwash sand exhibit sharp, depositional contacts, planar stratification, and generally coarsen upward and fine landward. On the mixed clastic-carbonate coast, the Typhoon Haiyan deposits are generally thin (reef flat surface, and a sand sheet that blanketed the coastal plain up to 300 m distance inland. Overall, Haiyan's overwash sediments exhibit characteristics that are consistent with other overwash sediments from comparably intense storm surges, but are also observed in recent tsunami deposits. Thus, although the Haiyan overwash sediments excellently represent a rare modern-day record of an extreme storm, the sediment signatures of Haiyan do share many of the characteristics of tsunami deposits suggesting caution when interpreting inundation events in the geologic record.

  18. Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Neumann, James; Ludwig, Lindsay; Verly, Caroleen; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew; Ravela, Srinivas

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated storm surge level for the 100-year storm surge, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. As is well-established in the literature, sea level rise will increase the risk of storms by raising the base sea level from which surg...

  19. Storm surges-An option for Hamburg, Germany, to mitigate expected future aggravation of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, Hans von; Goennert, Gabriele; Meine, Manfred

    2008-01-01

    Summary: Rising sea level together with regionally increased storm activity, caused by elevated and increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will in many parts of the world increase the risk of storm surges significantly. Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may mitigate the increasing risks somewhat, but the major task for regional and local stakeholders will be to prepare for appropriate adaptation. In most cases, possible strategies include intensification of coastal defense measures, in particular strengthening dykes, and adaptation to intermittent flooding. In case of Hamburg and the tidal Elbe river a third option seems to be available, which aims at mitigating storm surge risks by applying estuary engineering constructions. This option is sketched in this paper. The option has the potential to significantly reduce the expected future increases of local surge heights

  20. Subtropical Dust Storms and Downslope Wind Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

    2017-10-01

    We performed detailed mesoscale observational analyses and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to study the terrain-induced downslope winds that generated dust-emitting winds at the beginning of three strong subtropical dust storms in three distinctly different regions of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. We revisit the Harmattan dust storm of 2 March 2004, the Saudi dust storm of 9 March 2009, and the Bodélé Depression dust storm of 8 December 2011 and use high-resolution WRF modeling to assess the dynamical processes during the onset of the storms in more depth. Our results highlight the generation of terrain-induced downslope winds in response to the transition of the atmospheric flow from a subcritical to supercritical state in all three cases. These events precede the unbalanced adjustment processes in the lee of the mountain ranges that produced larger-scale dust aerosol mobilization and transport. We see that only the higher-resolution data sets can resolve the mesoscale processes, which are mainly responsible for creating strong low-level terrain-induced downslope winds leading to the initial dust storms.

  1. Model simulation of storm surge potential for Andaman islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    The Andaman Islands face the surge disaster threat as their north-south orientation comes across the eastward path of severe cyclones moving from the Andaman sea known for the genesis of many severe cyclones that traverse the Bay of Bengal regularly...

  2. Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    2017-07-01

    Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

  3. Evaluation and comparison of the operational Bristol Channel Model storm surge suite

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, J.A.; Horsburgh, K.J.

    2013-01-01

    Due to its exceptional tidal range, complex geometry, and exposure to flood risk the operational storm surge modelling system for the Bristol Channel (running four times each day as part of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting service) comprises a number of nested hydrodynamic models. Forecasts for the region are available from the shelf-wide storm surge model, CS3X, as well as from two finer-scale models of the Bristol Channel itself (the Bristol Channel model, BCM, and the Severn River...

  4. Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Forbes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

  5. Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional

  6. A high resolution study of a hurricane storm surge and inundation in Veracruz, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz García, Ovel; Zavala Hidalgo, Jorge; Douillet, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Veracruz is the most populated city along the Mexican shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and also is the country's largest commercial port. In recent years the city has been affected by hurricanes of medium intensity that have provoked human casualties, property damaged and economic loss. Two of the most recent events were hurricane Karl (2010), which caused a storm surge and severe flooding, and hurricane Ernesto (2012). The purpose of this work is to study, based on high-resolution numerical simulations, scenarios of storm surge flooding using state-of-the-art open source numerical models: the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the coupled models ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) for weather and storm surge hindcast, respectively. We also use topography high resolution data from LIDAR and bathymetry from GEBCO 30", the Mexican Navy and nautical charts from Electrical Federal Commission. We present the validation of the models evaluating several statistical parameters against measurements from Acoustic Data Current Profilers, pressure sensors, tide gauge and meteorological stations for these events. In the case of hurricane Karl, it made landfall 15 km north of Veracruz City, reducing the maximum surge along the city shoreline. The hurricane Ernesto made landfall 200 km southeast of the city, too far to have a significant impact. We did some numerical experiments slightly changing the trajectory, reported by the best track data, for these two hurricanes with the purpose of evaluating storm surge scenarios. The results shows that the worst storm surge cases were when the tracks of this hurricanes made landfall south of the city in the range of 30 to 60 km.

  7. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  8. Improving short-range ensemble Kalman storm surge forecasting using robust adaptive inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altaf, M.U.; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H? filter. By design, an H? filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense

  9. An Idealized Meteorological-Hydrodynamic Model for Exploring Extreme Storm Surge Statistics in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Van den Berg, N.J.F.; De Jong, M.S.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Den Heijer, C.; Vrijling, J.K.; Jonkman, S.N.; Roos, P.C.; Hulscher, S.J.M.H.; Lansen, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at

  10. Solar Wind Disturbances Related to Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, A.; Lyatsky, W. B.

    2001-12-01

    We used the superposed epoch method to reconstruct a typical behavior of solar wind parameters before and during strong isolated geomagnetic storms. For this analysis we used 130 such geomagnetic storms during the period of 1966-2000. The results obtained show that a typical disturbance in the solar wind responsible for geomagnetic storm generation is associated with the propagation of high-speed plasma flow compressing ambient solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ahead of this high-speed flow. This gives rise to enhanced magnetic field, plasma density, plasma turbulence and temperature, which start to increase several hours before geomagnetic storm onset. However, the IMF Bz (responsible for geomagnetic storm onset) starts to increase significantly later (approximately 6-7 hours after maximal variations in plasma density and IMF By). The time delay between peaks in IMF Bz and plasma density (and IMF By) may be a result of draping of high-speed plasma streams with ambient magnetic field in the (z-y) plane as discussed by some authors. This leads to an increase first in plasma density and IMF By ahead of a high-speed flow, which is followed by an increase in IMF Bz. This simple model allows us to predict that the probability for geomagnetic storm generation should depend on which edge of a high-speed flow encounters the Earth's magnetosphere. The probability for geomagnetic storm generation is expected to be maximal when the flow encounters the magnetosphere by its north-west edge for negative IMF By and south-west edge for positive IMF By.

  11. Using satellite altimetry and tide gauges for storm surge warning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, O. B.; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2014-01-01

    The combination of the coarse temporal sampling by satellite altimeters in the deep ocean with the high temporal sampling at sparsely located tide gauges along the coast has been used to improve the forecast of high water for the North Sea along the Danish Coast and for the northeast coast...... selected several representative high water events on the two continents based on tide gauge recordings and investigated the capability of satellite altimetry to capture these events in the sea surface height data. Due to the lack of recent surges in the North Sea we focused on general high water level...... coast in March 2006 and caused both loss of lives as well as huge devastation. Here we demonstrate the importance of integrating tide gauges with satellite altimetry for forecasting high water at the city of Townsville in northeast Australia....

  12. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  13. Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular

  14. Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory D Webster

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. METHODS: Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual-perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

  15. Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

  16. Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

  17. Quantification of Storm Surge Using A Python-based ArcGIS Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, S.; Siverd, C. G.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.

    2016-12-01

    Geographic Information System (GIS) technology allows the organization, manipulation, analysis, and visualization of spatial data (Fischer, 2010). Although GIS provides some operations for spatial analysis, the methods are often only partially implemented and can be difficult to find and use effectively (Rigol-Sanchez et al., 2015). For coastal researchers, development of automated GIS tools is essential to efficiently analyze coastal flood risk from hurricanes. An adaptive GIS toolbox, Quantitative Surge Analysis Tool (QSAT), was developed and implements ArcGIS software and Python scripts to quantify attributes of hurricane storm surge (e.g., average water surface elevation). The python script provides a way to allow researchers to reduce the amount of time spent developing common solutions (Etherington, 2010) and repeating manual operations. The QSAT contains tools that run in the ArcGIS program. These tools compute average water surface elevation, average inundation depth, inundated area, total surge volume, percent of land inundated, and retention time for a given polygonal area. A new shapefile is created with a detail attribute table containing the various surge quantities. The toolbox is designed to directly read data files produced by an ADCIRC storm surge simulation as well as a polygon shapefile defining the areas of interest. The functionality of the QSAT toolbox was tested using Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC 12) polygons of coastal Louisiana and ADCIRC model results from a simulation of Hurricane Gustav. The QSAT aids a streamlined transition of surge quantities across a local medium (i.e. HUC 12s) to better inform stakeholders and lead to improved regional and local decisions.

  18. A Tsunami Ball Approach to Storm Surge and Inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven N. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of storm surge and inundation solve equations of continuity and momentum on fixed finite-difference/finite-element meshes. I develop a completely new approach that uses a momentum equation to accelerate bits or balls of water over variable depth topography. The thickness of the water column at any point equals the volume density of balls there. In addition to being more intuitive than traditional methods, the tsunami ball approach has several advantages. (a By tracking water balls of fixed volume, the continuity equation is satisfied automatically and the advection term in the momentum equation becomes unnecessary. (b The procedure is meshless in the finite-difference/finite-element sense. (c Tsunami balls care little if they find themselves in the ocean or inundating land. (d Tsunami ball calculations of storm surge can be done on a laptop computer. I demonstrate and calibrate the method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I run two “What If” hurricane scenarios—Katrina over Savannah, Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

  19. Sea level during storm surges as seen in tide-gauge records along the east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sundar, D.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    are therefore highly desirable. The essence of the dynamics of storm surges is well known. Storm surges are atmosphericallyhyphenminusforced oscilhyphenminus lations of the water level in a coastal region, with perihyphenminus ods ranging from minutes to days...'s Tidal Equahyphenminus tions (LTE), given by Laplace2 to explain ocean tides. The writing of these equations forms a major milestone in the evolution of the theoretical framework that is today called geophysical fluid dynamics3. The modern version...

  20. Rapid salinization of a karst aquifer after a typhoon-generated storm surge: Hydraulics, geochemistry, and community impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, P.; Cardenas, M. B.; Zamora, P. B.; Befus, K. M.; Rodolfo, R. S.; Cabria, H. B.; Lapus, M. R.; Muan, M.

    2014-12-01

    Super Typhoon (STY) Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines with sustained winds of 315 kph producing a 7+ meter storm surge that inundated parts of Leyte and Samar; >8000 died, > 106 homes were destroyed, and thousands of people are still missing. The surge reached 1 km inland and resulted in widespread seawater (SW) contamination of groundwater (GW) resources critical for coastal villages. We conducted field-work in a village of ~2200 residents, inundated by a 5-6 m surge, 2 months and again 8 months after STY Haiyan. The 330+ shallow tube wells (STWs) had been drilled through beach sand into karstic reef carbonates to 5-20m below the water table (WT). Residents reported their STWs salinized immediately after the storm, even the deepest wells, and the only source of fresh water was a karst spring 1 km from the village. 2 months after the storm GW salinity was up to 18% SW. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) was used to image salt distribution in the surficial aquifer alongside the developed village. ERT detected an electrically conductive layer ~1m below the WT, and water sampling confirmed that this was due to infiltrated seawater. Variable-density flow and transport models corroborate the ER tomograms and show that the salt is infiltrating through the aquifer and slowly flushing to the ocean. We hypothesize that SW rapidly infiltrated the ~2m sandy unsaturated zone and contaminated the shallow GW over a wide area. This salt layer is slowly sinking and flushing toward the ocean, and flow models show that it might be several years to flush the system. Results from a second ERT survey 6 months later show little change in the ER field, consistent with model predictions. But karst features and the STWs themselves served as preferential paths into the aquifer for SW injection to the deeper zone under the 6m surge potential, salinizing deep wells ahead of the advancing shallow SW layer. These wells have seen substantial decrease in salinity over 6 months, as much

  1. The effect of tides and storm surges on sediment transport during overwash events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesselman, Daan; de Winter, Renske; Hoekstra, Piet; Oost, Albert; McCall, Robert; van der Vegt, Maarten

    2017-04-01

    Storm events generally result in elevated water levels at the meso-tidal Wadden Sea coast, the Netherlands. This can lead to overwash and inundation of parts of the barrier islands. Currently, large parts of the Dutch barriers are closed off by artificial dunes which prevent overwash during storms. In view of future sea-level rise measures to heighten the hinterland of the barriers island are investigated. A hypothesis is that on the long term the cross-shore sediment transport, caused by overwash and inundation events, can contribute to the vertical accretion of the barriers. Therefore, the partial re-opening of the dunes on the barrier island is considered by the Dutch management authorities. We identify the dominant cross-shore hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes during an overwash event to study the potential long-term sediment transport. In addition, we focus on the role of the back-barrier basin on overwash dynamics. An XBeach model was set-up and validated against field data collected during overwash on East-Schiermonnikoog, a non-vegetated tip of a barrier island. The simulated wave heights, periods, water levels and flow velocities agree well with the field data. With the validated XBeach model, simulations are executed for a wide variety of storm and tidal characteristics. From the model simulations we conclude that: (1) The erosion and transport of sediment across the beach crest is mainly driven by the cross-shore currents. Infragravity waves and short waves are less important for the sediment transport over the barrier island. (2) Maximum onshore transport occurs during more gentle storms (storm surge level of 1.5-2.0 m) instead of severe storms (storm surge level of 2.5-3.0 m). (3) For mixed-energy, meso-tidal barrier systems like the Wadden Sea, the dynamics of the back-barrier basin have to be taken into account. Water level gradients across the barrier island are strongly influenced by the tidal phase propagation and the difference in

  2. Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot's Day storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-mei Xie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor'easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot's Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor'easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height (SWH in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.

  3. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

    2016-01-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  4. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Needham, H. F.; Cox, A.

    2016-05-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static ("bathtub") modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  5. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  6. Numerical Analysis of Storm Surge and Seiche at Tokyo Bay caused by the 2 Similar Typhoons, Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamoto, T.; Takagawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A long period damped oscillation, or seiche, sometimes happens inside a harbor after passing typhoon. For some cases, a maximum sea level is observed due to the superposition of astronomical tide and seiche rather than a peak of storm surge. Hence to clarify seiche factors for reducing disaster potential is important, a long-period seiche with a fundamental period of 5.46 hours in Tokyo Bay (Konishi, 2008) was investigated through numerical simulations and analyses. We examined the case of Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014 (Hereafter Case P and V). The intensity and moving velocity were similar and the best-tracks were an arc-shaped, typical one approaching to Tokyo Bay. The track of Case V was about 1.5 degree higher latitude than that of Case P, only Typhoon Phanphon caused significant seiche.Firstly, numerical simulations for the 2 storm surges at Tokyo Bay were conducted by Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Meso-Scale Model Grid Point Values (MSM-GPV). MSM-GPV gave the 10m wind speed and Sea Level Pressure (SLP), especially the Mean Error (ME) and Root Mean Squire Error (RMSE) of SLP were low compared to the 12 JMA observation points data (Case P: ME -0.303hPa, RMSE 1.87hPa, Case V: ME -0.285hPa, RMSE 0.74hPa). The computational results showed that the maximum of storm surge was underestimated but the difference was less than 20cm at 5 observation points in Tokyo Bay(Fig.1, 2).Then, power spectrals, coherences and phase differences of storm surges at the 5 observation points were obtained by spectral analysis of observed and simulated waveforms. For Case P, the phase-difference between the bay mouth and innermost part of Tokyo Bay was little, and coherence was almost 1(Fig.3, 4). However, for Case V, coherence was small around the fundamental period of 5.46 hours. Furthermore, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of storm surge, SLP and sea surface stress were conducted. The contributions of EOF1 were above 90% for the all variables, the

  7. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens; Meyers, Steven; Luther, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a well-known facet of natural hazards along the US coastline where nearly 40% of the population resides in coastal counties. Given the heavy reliance on the coastal zone for natural resources and economic activity, flood preparedness and safety is a key element of long-term resilience. A clear understanding of the various flood types and changes in the frequency of their occurrence is critical towards reliable estimates of vulnerability and potential impacts in the near-term as well as into the future. When the two main flood drivers for coastal areas storm surge and heavy precipitation occur in tandem the potential for significant flooding is much greater than from either in isolation. Exploring the probability of these 'compound events' and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high impact risks. For the contiguous US the likelihood of the joint occurrence of the two phenomena is largely unknown. Here we show - using storm surge and precipitation records spanning the last century - that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the US east and Gulf coasts, relative to the west coast. We also show that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the last century along large coastline stretches including many of the major coastal cities. For New York City - as an example - this increase is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns also favouring high precipitation. Preliminary analyses reveal that these synoptic scale changes are closely linked to large scale and low frequency climate variations. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing the risk of compound flooding within the design process of coastal and urban infrastructure in a non-stationary framework and to explore the potential effects of climate change on these high impact events.

  8. Influence of Closing Storm Surge Barrier on Extreme Water Levels and Water Exchange; The Limfjord, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    of the fjord. The reduction is obtained by blocking the ingoing flow with a sluice in due time before the storm surge peaks in the North Sea. In order to avoid problems with reduced water quality and salinity, the water exchange should be controlled by only keeping the sluice open for ingoing currents...... for the rest of days during the year. Depending on the effective cross-sectional area of the sluice, the depth-averaged salinity in the Limfjord remains status quo for cross-sectional areas of 500m2, whereas the salinity increases with up to 1.5 PSU for larger openings....

  9. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

  10. Quantifying riverine and storm-surge flood risk by single-family residence: application to Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Kunreuther, Howard; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

    2013-12-01

    The development of catastrophe models in recent years allows for assessment of the flood hazard much more effectively than when the federally run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created in 1968. We propose and then demonstrate a methodological approach to determine pure premiums based on the entire distribution of possible flood events. We apply hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses to a sample of 300,000 single-family residences in two counties in Texas (Travis and Galveston) using state-of-the-art flood catastrophe models. Even in zones of similar flood risk classification by FEMA there is substantial variation in exposure between coastal and inland flood risk. For instance, homes in the designated moderate-risk X500/B zones in Galveston are exposed to a flood risk on average 2.5 times greater than residences in X500/B zones in Travis. The results also show very similar average annual loss (corrected for exposure) for a number of residences despite their being in different FEMA flood zones. We also find significant storm-surge exposure outside of the FEMA designated storm-surge risk zones. Taken together these findings highlight the importance of a microanalysis of flood exposure. The process of aggregating risk at a flood zone level-as currently undertaken by FEMA-provides a false sense of uniformity. As our analysis indicates, the technology to delineate the flood risks exists today. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  12. Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2014-01-01

    Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges.

  13. Flooding Mitigation of seawalls and river embankments to storm surges in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianwei; Wang, Xina

    2017-04-01

    The coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China are susceptible to the destructions of tropical cyclones and storm surges. The projected global warming, coastal subsidence and sea level rise together will bring about greater flooding risk to these areas. The seawall and river embankment have played a significant role in mitigating and preventing the coastal low-land areas from the impairment of storm surges flooding and wave runup. However, few risk assessment studies in this region consider the existence of seawall and river embankment and often overestimate the risk and potential economic loss and population affected due to storm surge flooding. This study utilizes a hydraulic model to simulate the overtop flooding and compare those without seawall and river embankment using several specific tropic storm events and extreme events of tropic storm surges in different return periods of 2, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years. Most seawalls are 4 or 5 meters plus another meter of wave levee above the local mean sea level. The river embankments are usually 4 or 5 meter higher than the local mean sea level as well and decrease from the outer estuary to the inner riverine. The modeling results considering seawall and river embankments and from real storm surges are in agreement with on-site survey and observations, while those without infusing seawall and river embankments overestimate the inundation condition and economic loss. Modeling results demonstrate that seawall and river embankment greatly reduce the flooding risk and prevent the low-land area from inundation for most tropic storm events, e.g., for extreme events less than 20 to 50 years, in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China. However, the seawall and river embankment may also cause catastrophic disasters once there is an engineering failure of seawalls and river embankment, especially once encountering with an extreme typhoon event, e.g., the 1969 super typhoon Viola in Shantou China and the 2005

  14. Deriving spatial and temporal patterns of coastal marsh aggradation from hurricane storm surge marker beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodge, Joshua; Williams, Harry

    2016-12-01

    This study uses storm surge sediment beds deposited by Hurricanes Audrey (1957), Carla (1961), Rita (2005) and Ike (2008) to investigate spatial and temporal changes in marsh sedimentation on the McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge in Southeastern Texas. Fourteen sediment cores were collected along a transect extending 1230 m inland from the Gulf coast. Storm-surge-deposited sediment beds were identified by texture, organic content, carbonate content, the presence of marine microfossils and 137Cs dating. The hurricane-derived sediment beds facilitate assessment of changes in marsh sedimentation from nearshore to inland locations and over decadal to annual timescales. Spatial variation along the transect reflects varying contributions from three prevailing sediment sources: flooding, overwash and organic sedimentation from marsh plants. Over about the last decade, hurricane overwash has been the predominant sediment source for nearshore locations because of large sediment inputs from Hurricanes Rita and Ike. Farther inland, hurricane inputs diminish and sedimentation is dominated by deposition from flood waters and a larger organic component. Temporal variations in sedimentation reflect hurricane activity, changes in marsh surface elevation and degree of compaction of marsh sediments, which is time-dependent. There was little to no marsh sedimentation in the period 2008-2014, firstly because no hurricanes impacted the study area and secondly because overwash sedimentation prior to 2008 had increased nearshore marsh surface elevations by up to 0.68 m, reducing subsequent inputs from flooding. Marsh sedimentation rates were relatively high in the period 2005-2008, averaging 2.13 cm/year and possibly reflecting sediment contributions from Hurricanes Humberto and Gustav. However, these marsh sediments are highly organic and largely uncompacted. Older, deeper marsh deposits formed between 1961 and 2005 are less organic-rich, more compacted and have an average annual

  15. The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

    2016-02-01

    An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

  16. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  17. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L; Cardone, Vincent J; Cox, Andrew T; Augustus, Ellsworth H; Colonnese, Christopher P

    2003-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  18. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2004-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  19. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2005-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  20. Harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena in the Eastern Scheldt: A resident Stock or trapped by a storm surge barrier?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, O.E.; Aarts, G.M.; Reijnders, P.J.H.

    2013-01-01

    Coastal protection measures are planned and executed worldwide to combat the effects of global warming and climate change, in particular the acceleration of sea level rise, higher storm surge flooding and extensive coastal inundation. The extent to which these defensive measures may impact coastal

  1. Monitoring and simulation of salinity changes in response to tide and storm surges in a sandy coastal aquifer system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, S.; Karaoulis, M.C.; Oude Essink, G.H.P.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    Tidal dynamics and especially storm surges can have an extensive impact on coastal fresh groundwater resources. Combined with the prospect of sea-level rise and the reliance of many people on these resources, this demonstrates the need to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas to these threats.

  2. Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Inundation and Velocity Hazard Mapping of the State of Andhra Pradesh (India) using ADCIRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brackins, J. T.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal region, including parts of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, is the largest bay in the world and is structured in such a manner as to produce the world's largest tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges (SS), with approximately five surge events greater than 5 meters in magnitude each decade. (Needham et al. 2015). Although some studies have been performed to attempt to capture the magnitude and location of historical surges (Shaji et al. 2014) and to model surges in the immediate sense, there is a notable lack of application to the effects on coastal infrastructure in these areas. Given that these areas are some of the most densely populated and least economically able to prepare and recover, it is important to consider the potential effects of storm surge to discover areas where improvements can be made with the limited resources available to these areas. To this end, an ADvanced-CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model (Luettich and Westerink 2004) was created for the Bay of Bengal, using the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO 2014) as bathymetric and topographic data, and a combination of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) records for storm tracks. For the state of Andhra Pradesh, several major TC events ranging from 1977 to 2014 were selected to be modeled with the goal of creating hazard maps of storm surge inundation and velocity for the state. These hazard maps would be used to identify high-vulnerability areas with the goal of implementing land-use planning and coastal development practices that will aid in ameliorating both the loss of life and economic damages sustained as a result of these TCs.

  3. Numerical modeling of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique: the cases of tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bié, Alberto José; de Camargo, Ricardo; Mavume, Alberto Francisco; Harari, Joseph

    2017-11-01

    The coast of Mozambique is often affected by storms, particularly tropical cyclones during summer or sometimes midlatitude systems in the southern part. Storm surges combined with high freshwater discharge can drive huge coastal floods, affecting both urban and rural areas. To improve the knowledge about the impact of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique, this study presents the first attempt to model this phenomenon through the implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Southwestern Indian Ocean domain (SWIO; 2-32°S, 28-85°E) using a regular grid with 1/6° of spatial resolution and 36 sigma levels. The simulation was performed for the period 1979-2010, and the most interesting events of surges were related to tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) that occurred in the Mozambique Channel. The results showed that the model represented well the amplitude and phase of principal lunar and solar tidal constituents, as well as it captured the spatial pattern and magnitudes of SST with slight positive bias in summer and negative bias in winter months. In terms of SSH, the model underestimated the presence of mesoscale eddies, mainly in the Mozambique Channel. Our results also showed that the atmospheric sea level pressure had a significant contribution to storm heights during the landfall of the tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) in the coast of Mozambique contributing with about 20 and 16% of the total surge height for each case, respectively, surpassing the contribution of the tide-surge nonlinear interactions by a factor of 2.

  4. Enhancement of wind stress evaluation method under storm conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2016-12-01

    Wind stress is an important driving force for many meteorological and oceanographical processes. However, most of the existing methods for evaluation of the wind stress, including various bulk formulas in terms of the wind speed at a given height and formulas relating the roughness height of the sea surface with wind conditions, predict an ever-increasing tendency of the wind stress coefficient as the wind speed increases, which is inconsistent with the field observations under storm conditions. The wave boundary layer model, which is based on the momentum and energy conservation, has the advantage to take into account the physical details of the air-sea interaction process, but is still invalid under storm conditions without a modification. By including the energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray, which is speculated to be an important aspect of the air-sea interaction under storm conditions, the wave boundary layer model is improved in this study. The improved model is employed to estimate the wind stress caused by an idealized tropical cyclone motion. The computational results show that the wind stress coefficient reaches its maximal value at a wind speed of about 40 m/s and decreases as the wind speed further increases. This is in fairly good agreement with the field data.

  5. Modelling the effects of tides and storm surges on coastal aquifers using a coupled surface-subsurface approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Herold, Maria; Ptak, Thomas

    2013-06-01

    Coastal aquifers are complex hydrologic systems because many physical processes interact: (i) variably saturated flow, (ii) spatial-temporal fluid density variations, (iii) tidal fluctuations, (iv) storm surges overtopping dykes, and (v) surface runoff of storm water. The HydroGeoSphere model is used to numerically simulate coastal flow dynamics, assuming a fully coupled surface-subsurface approach, accounting for all processes listed above. The diffusive wave approximation of the St. Venant equation is used to describe surface flow. Surface flow and salt transport are fully coupled with subsurficial variably saturated, variable-density flow and salt transport through mathematical terms that represent exchange of fluid mass and solute mass, respectively. Tides and storm surges induce a time-variant head that is applied to nodes of the surface domain. The approach is applied to real cases of tide and storm surge events. Tide simulation results confirm the existence of a recirculating zone, forming beneath the upper part of the intertidal zone. By monitoring the exchange fluid flux rates through the beach, it was found that the major inflow to the aquifer takes place at the upper part of the intertidal zone, which explains the formation of the recirculating zone. The recirculating zone is forming particularly during rising tide. Results from a storm surge simulation show that plume fingers develop below the flooded land surface. Natural remediation by seaward flowing freshwater is relatively slow, such that reducing the salt concentration in the aquifer down to drinking water standards takes up to 10 years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

  7. Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Justin; Chang, Ni-Bin; Harji, Rahim; Ruppert, Thomas; Singhofen, Peter

    2017-11-01

    For comprehensive flood assessment, complex systems, both natural and man-made, must be accounted for due to prevailing cascade effects from the upper atmosphere to the subsurface with hydrological and hydraulic interactions in between. This study aims to demonstrate such cascade effects via an integrated nearshore oceanic and coastal watershed model. Such an integrated modeling system consists of a coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave driven model [the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models], which can combine storm surge, astronomic tide levels and wave interaction, as well as an integrated hydrological/hydraulic model, namely the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model for coastal urban watershed simulation. In order to explore the worst scenario of coastal flooding impacts on a low-lying coastal watershed, the Cross Bayou Watershed within the Tampa Bay area of Florida was chosen for a multi-scale simulation analysis. To assess hurricane-induced storm tide, precipitation variability, and sea level rise collectively this multi-scale simulation analysis combines ADCIRC/SWAN and ICPR integratively. Findings indicate that such consideration of complex interactions at the coastal ocean, land surface, and sub-surface levels can provide useful flood assessments which are sensitive to slight changes in natural hazard characteristics such as storm intensity, radius of maximum winds, storm track, and landfall location.

  8. Wind turbine optimal control during storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrović, V; Bottasso, C L

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a control algorithm that enables wind turbine operation in high winds. With this objective, an online optimization procedure is formulated that, based on the wind turbine state, estimates those extremal wind speed variations that would produce maximal allowable wind turbine loads. Optimization results are compared to the actual wind speed and, if there is a danger of excessive loading, the wind turbine power reference is adjusted to ensure that loads stay within allowed limits. This way, the machine can operate safely even above the cut-out wind speed, thereby realizing a soft envelope-protecting cut-out. The proposed control strategy is tested and verified using a high-fidelity aeroservoelastic simulation model

  9. Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation and storm surge experiments of tropical cyclone Nargis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Duc

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Data assimilation experiments on Myanmar tropical cyclone (TC, Nargis, using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF method and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM were performed to examine the impact of LETKF on analysis performance in real cases. Although the LETKF control experiment using NHM as its driving model (NHM–LETKF produced a weak vortex, the subsequent 3-day forecast predicted Nargis’ track and intensity better than downscaling from JMA's global analysis. Some strategies to further improve the final analysis were considered. They were sea surface temperature (SST perturbations and assimilation of TC advisories. To address SST uncertainty, SST analyses issued by operational forecast centres were used in the assimilation window. The use of a fixed source of SST analysis for each ensemble member was more effective in practice. SST perturbations were found to have slightly positive impact on the track forecasts. Assimilation of TC advisories could have a positive impact with a reasonable choice of its free parameters. However, the TC track forecasts exhibited northward displacements, when the observation error of intensities was underestimated in assimilation of TC advisories. The use of assimilation of TC advisories was considered in the final NHM–LETKF by choosing an appropriate set of free parameters. The extended forecast based on the final analysis provided meteorological forcings for a storm surge simulation using the Princeton Ocean Model. Probabilistic forecasts of the water levels at Irrawaddy and Yangon significantly improved the results in the previous studies.

  10. Observing storm surges in the Bay of Bengal from satellite altimetry

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Antony, C.; Testut, L.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    . As the repeat period of the orbit is the key factor to increase the probability of observing surges by a satellite, a high repetitive constellation of altimeter satellites can considerably enhance the chances of capturing of surge signals. Classical altimeters...

  11. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  12. Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Jisan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009 and Sidr (Category 5; 2007. Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future

  13. Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, Mansur Ali; Bao, Shaowu; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    2018-01-01

    The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000-1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the

  14. The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

  15. Hindcasting of Storm Surges, Currents, and Waves at Lower Delaware Bay during Hurricane Isabel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes are a major threat to coastal communities and infrastructures including nuclear power plants located in low-lying coastal zones. In response, their sensitive elements should be protected by smart design to withstand against drastic impact of such natural phenomena. Accurate and reliable estimate of hurricane attributes is the first step to that effort. Numerical models have extensively grown over the past few years and are effective tools in modeling large scale natural events such as hurricane. The impact of low probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay is investigated using dynamically coupled meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave components of Delft3D software. Efforts are made to significantly reduce the computational overburden of performing such analysis for the industry, yet keeping the same level of accuracy at the area of study (AOS). The model is comprised of overall and nested domains. The overall model domain includes portion of Atlantic Ocean, Delaware, and Chesapeake bays. The nested model domain includes Delaware Bay, its floodplain, and portion of the continental shelf. This study is portion of a larger modeling effort to study the impact of low probability hurricanes on sensitive infrastructures located at the coastal zones prone to hurricane activity. The AOS is located on the east bank of Delaware Bay almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. Model generated wind speed, significant wave height, water surface elevation, and current are calibrated for hurricane Isabel (2003). The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations. Furthermore, sensitivity of surge and wave responses to various hurricane parameters was tested. In line with findings from other researchers, accuracy of wind field played a major role in hindcasting the hurricane attributes.

  16. An intense geomagnetic storm associated with slow solar wind ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The storm is summarized using the low-latitude magnetic index, Dst and is interpreted using available interplanetary data: proton number density, solar wind flow speed, plasma temperature, interplanetary magnetic field southward component Bz, plasma beta and dawn-dusk electric field. Our results show the magnetic ...

  17. Global Positioning System surveys of storm-surge sensors deployed during Hurricane Ike, Seadrift, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Jason; Woodward, Brenda K.; Storm, John B.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey installed a network of pressure sensors at 65 sites along the Gulf Coast from Seadrift, Texas, northeast to Lake Charles, Louisiana, to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland storm surge and coastal flooding caused by Hurricane Ike in September 2008. A Global Positioning System was used to obtain elevations of reference marks near each sensor. A combination of real-time kinematic (RTK) and static Global Positioning System surveys were done to obtain elevations of reference marks. Leveling relative to reference marks was done to obtain elevations of sensor orifices above the reference marks. This report summarizes the Global Positioning System data collected and processed to obtain reference mark and storm-sensor-orifice elevations for 59 storm-surge sensors recovered from the original 65 installed as a necessary prelude to computation of storm-surge elevations. National Geodetic Survey benchmarks were used for RTK surveying. Where National Geodetic Survey benchmarks were not within 12 kilometers of a sensor site, static surveying was done. Additional control points for static surveying were in the form of newly established benchmarks or reestablished existing benchmarks. RTK surveying was used to obtain positions and elevations of reference marks for 29 sensor sites. Static surveying was used to obtain positions and elevations of reference marks for 34 sensor sites; four sites were surveyed using both methods. Multiple quality checks on the RTK-survey and static-survey data were applied. The results of all quality checks indicate that the desired elevation accuracy for the surveys of this report, less than 0.1-meter error, was achieved.

  18. Numerical Study of the Port of Miami (Importance of Dodge Island) in Storm Surge and Flooding Forecasting in North Biscayne Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H.; Zhang, K.; Li, Y.

    2011-12-01

    The importance of Port of Miami (Dodge Island) in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay was investigated by using the numerical model Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST). Firstly, CEST was applied to Hurricane Andrew of 1992 in the Biscayne Bay basin and validated by in situ measurements, which indicated the model results had good agreement with measured data. Secondly, two sets of experiments using Hurricane Miami of 1926 were conducted to study the role of Dodge Island in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay: one set of experiments were run in today's Biscayne Bay basin and another set of experiments were run in Biscayne Bay basin of 1926 in which Dodge Island was not created yet. Results indicated that storm surge and flooding areas were reduced a little bit in Miami River areas when Dodge Island was not there. Meanwhile, storm surge and flooding areas in North Miami and Miami Beach regions were largely increased. Results further indicated that as long as the hurricane made landfall in south of Dodge Island, it can provide a good protection for Miami Beach area to reduce storm surge and flooding impacts.

  19. A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila

    2016-11-01

    by performing assimilation experiments with the highly nonlinear Lorenz model and a realistic setting of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model configured for storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Ike.

  20. Principal component analysis of the summertime winds over the Gulf of California: A gulf surge index

    OpenAIRE

    Bordoni, S.; Stevens, B.

    2006-01-01

    A principal component analysis of the summertime near-surface Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds is used to identify the leading mode of synoptic-scale variability of the low-level flow along the Gulf of California during the North American monsoon season. A gulf surge mode emerges from this analysis as the leading EOF, with the corresponding principal component time series interpretable as an objective index for gulf surge occurrence. This index is used as a reference time series for regre...

  1. A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kraucunas, Ian P.; Rice, Jennie S.; Preston, Benjamin; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2013-12-10

    The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.

  2. Storm Surge of Supertyphoon Haiyan (7-9 Nov 2013) on Samar (Philippines) Moved the Largest Boulder Ever Documented for a Recent Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, M.; May, S. M.; Brill, D.; Reyes, M.; Brückner, H.

    2014-12-01

    Supertyphoon Haiyan (local name: Yolanda) struck the Philippines on 7-9 Nov 2013. It constantly reached category 5 (SSH scale) during its crossing of the archipelago. Storm surge heights of more than 7 m, wave heights of up to 5 m, and extensive flooding along the coast are reported. The death toll surpassed 6,000 individuals, and more than 16 M people were affected in total. The massive storm surge, which surprised many residents in particular on Samar and Leyte, also initiated the dislocation of large boulders at the coastline of SE Samar. Since such deposits may indicate maximum flooding distances and flow velocities of extreme wave events over timescales exceeding the era of historical documentation, they have increasingly been explored as a source for coastal hazard assessment. However, there is no clear consensus on differences in transport capacities and boulder field patterns created by storms and tsunamis. Thus, records from recent events provide a pivotal reference for process-related interpretation of other coastal boulder fields. We conducted a geomorphological and sedimentological survey after Haiyan on Leyte, Samar, Negros, and Bantayan. In SE Samar, the largest boulder (~75 m³; 9.0 x 4.5 x 3.5 m³; ~180 t) was shifted for 45 m on an inclined upper intertidal platform behind a Holocene reef by longshore sliding. A clast of ~70 t was moved by saltation and/or rolling for the same distance. A boulder of ~23.5 t was quarried at 2 m a.s.l. (above mean sea level) from the cliff edge of the Pleistocene carbonate platform and transported to a position of 6 m a.s.l. Boulders of up to ~17 t were moved from 6.5 to 10 m a.s.l., 2 m below the highest flood marks. Volumes of the limestone boulders were calculated using DGPS-derived point clouds transferred to ArcGIS. Densities were estimated to be around 2.3 g cm-3 using rock samples and the Archimedean principle. Downward-facing rock pools, grass patches, living barnacles, roots and soil staining on exposed

  3. Harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena in the eastern Scheldt: a resident stock or trapped by a storm surge barrier?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okka E Jansen

    Full Text Available Coastal protection measures are planned and executed worldwide to combat the effects of global warming and climate change, in particular the acceleration of sea level rise, higher storm surge flooding and extensive coastal inundation. The extent to which these defensive measures may impact coastal and estuarine ecosystems is still poorly understood. Since the building of a storm surge barrier, movement of harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena in and out of the Eastern Scheldt tidal bay (SW-Netherlands may be limited. To measure residency, porpoises stranded along the Dutch North Sea coast between 2006 and 2008 were sampled for muscle (n = 102 and bone tissue (n = 118, of which 9 muscle (8.8% and 12 bone samples (10.2% were collected from animals stranded within the Eastern Scheldt. Stable carbon (δ(13C was analysed to get insight into the habitat use and residency of porpoises in the Eastern Scheldt. Our data showed significantly higher δ(13C values in the muscle of porpoises stranded within the Eastern Scheldt (µ = -17.7‰, SD = 0.4‰ compared to animals stranded along the Dutch coast (µ = -18.3‰, SD = 0.5‰. This suggests that most porpoises stranded in the Eastern Scheldt foraged there for a longer period. The distinct δ(13C signature of animals from the Eastern Scheldt was not observed in bone tissue, suggesting a relatively recent shift in habitat use rather than life-long residency of porpoises within the Eastern Scheldt. The high number of strandings within the Eastern Scheldt suggests a higher mortality rate compared to the Dutch coastal zone. Our study indicates that along with other changes in the physical environment, the storm surge barrier may play an important role in determining the residency of porpoises in the Eastern Scheldt, and that the area might act as an ecological trap for porpoises entering it.

  4. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-08-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

  5. Influence of a Storm Surge Barrier’s Operation on the Flood Frequency in the Rhine Delta Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Zhong

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area are supposed to be able to withstand these levels. Equal Level Curves approach is used to calculate the Rotterdam water levels by using Rhine discharges and sea water levels as input. Their joint probability function generates the occurrence frequency of a certain combination that will lead to a certain high water level in Rotterdam. The results show that the flood frequency in Rotterdam is reduced effectively with the controlled barrier in current and in future scenarios influenced by climate change. In addition, an investigation of the sensitivity of the operational parameters suggests that there is a negligible influence on the high water level frequency when the decision closing water level for the barrier is set higher due to the benefits of navigation (but not exceeding the design safety level 4 m MSL.

  6. Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

    2017-09-05

    Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Assessing the Vulnerability of Structures and Residential Communities to Storm Surge: An Analysis of Flood Impact during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Hatzikyriakou

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available With 6.5 million households in the United States located in areas prone to storm surge, assessing the vulnerability of structures and residential communities to coastal flooding is an important concern. Of particular interest is understanding how the performance of structures during surge events is influenced by flood conditions, coastal defenses, and building design at both the house and community level. This study presents such a vulnerability analysis by investigating the impact of coastal flooding from Hurricane Sandy (2012 on 95 km of developed coastline across New Jersey and New York. Exterior structural damage observed from a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA aerial survey of the study area is related to (1 a hindcast simulation of flood inundation and wave action, (2 a classification of coastal defenses and storm-induced erosion, and (3 minimum building design elevations specified in FEMA’s flood hazard mapping. Findings indicate that the hardest hit communities experienced significant dune erosion, which coincided with severe flood and wave exposure. Furthermore, structures were considerably more susceptible to flood impact if Sandy’s flood level exceeded FEMA’s 100-year Base Flood Elevation dictating building design. These results are quantified by developing fragility curves relating both house and community-level performance to the considered vulnerability parameters. Findings from this study can be used to inform decision making for improving coastal resilience.

  8. Erosion and its rate on an accumulative Polish dune coast: the effects of the January 2012 storm surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz A. Łabuz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves attacking the coast for almost 12 days. Quantitative analyses of the morphological dynamics of the coastal dunes are presented for 57 profiles located along the coast. Only those accumulative sections of the Polish coast are analysed where sand accumulation did occur and led to new foredune development. The mean rate of dune erosion was 2.5 m3 per square metre with an average toe retreat of 1.4 m. Erosion understood as dune retreat was greater when a beach was lower (correlation coefficient 0.8. Dune erosion did not occur on coasts with beaches higher than 3.2 m or on lower ones covered by embryo dunes.

  9. Influence of Model Simplifications Excitation Force in Surge for a Floating Foundation for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Thøtt; Hindhede, Dennis; Lauridsen, Jimmy

    2015-01-01

    As offshore wind turbines move towards deeper and more distant sites, the concept of floating foundations is a potential technically and economically attractive alternative to the traditional fixed foundations. Unlike the well-studied monopile, the geometry of a floating foundation is complex and......, thereby, increases the difficulty in wave force determination due to limitations of the commonly used simplified methods. This paper deals with a physical model test of the hydrodynamic excitation force in surge on a fixed three-columned structure intended as a floating foundation for offshore wind...

  10. Effects of a Storm-Surge Related Salinity Decrease on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Tidal Salt Marsh Mesocosms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capooci, M.; Barba, J.; Seyfferth, A.; Vargas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Salt marshes, along with mangrove forests and seagrass beds, are capable of sequestering large quantities of carbon. Additionally, salt marshes are resilient ecosystems, capable of quickly recovering from disturbances. However, very little is known about how carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ammonia (NH3) fluxes from wetland soils, in addition to pore water chemistry, change with a disturbance event such as a storm surge. Using soil mesocosms from St. Jones Reserve, a National Estuarine Research Reserve, and site-specific water salinity data, we conducted a laboratory experiment that recreated the changes in salinity associated with a storm event and compared them to soils flooded with the mean annual salinity of the St. Jones River. Control and treatment were done in triplicate. We controlled for variations in temperature (set at 21°C) and all cores maintained similar flooded conditions. Treatment included a decrease in salinity based on historic values during storm events (i.e. Hurricane Joaquin). Greenhouse gas (GHG; CO2, CH4, N2O, NH3) emissions were measured hourly using automated chambers. Pore water was collected every day to every other day and analyzed for a variety of parameters, including Fe2+, S2-, SO42-, and NO3-. Auxiliary measurements, such as soil temperature, moisture, and oxygen levels, in addition to pore water salinity, were also taken to ensure that proper conditions were maintained. We found significant increases in CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions when comparing the treatment (lowered salinity) to the control. We found also differences in pore water chemistry between treatment phases, particularly in Fe2+. The results of this experiment have implications for GHG dynamics in salt marsh ecosystems, showcasing the need to measure GHG emissions during and after storm events. This study provides insights into how changes in salinity affect GHG emissions in salt marshes, as well as how ecosystem dynamics respond to a

  11. Wind structure during mid-latitude storms and its application in Wind Energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolanos, Rodolfo

    2015-01-01

    . The numerical modeling is done through an atmosphere-wave coupled system, where the atmospheric model is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the wave model is the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model. Measurements from offshore stations, Horns Rev and the FINO platform, as well as satellite......: the mean wind and turbulence structures, as well as gust. This study aims at improving the understanding and modeling for the challenging wind and wave conditions during storms in the coastal offshore zones where a large number of wind farms are being planned in the near future in Europe, especially...... in Denmark. The extreme wind and wave conditions in the coastal area for wind energy application are important but have rarely been studied in the literature. Our experiments are done to the Danish coasts where the mid-latitude depression systems are causes of the extreme wind and wave conditions...

  12. Effect of wind turbine surge motion on rotor thrust and induced velocity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaal, J.B., de; Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Moan, T.

    2014-01-01

    velocity on a wind turbine rotor is investigated. Specifically, the performance of blade element momentum theory with a quasisteady wake as well as two widely used engineering dynamic inflow models is evaluated. A moving actuator disc model is used as reference, since the dynamics associated with the wake...... will be inherently included in the solution of the associated fluid dynamic problem. Through analysis of integrated rotor loads, induced velocities and aerodynamic damping, it is concluded that typical surge motions are sufficiently slow to not affect the wake dynamics predicted by engineering models significantly...

  13. PCR and culture identification of pathogenic Leptospira spp. from coastal soil in Leyte, Philippines, after a storm surge during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Mitsumasa; Miyahara, Satoshi; Villanueva, Sharon Y A M; Aramaki, Natsumi; Ikejiri, Mami; Kobayashi, Yoshie; Guevarra, Jonathan P; Masuzawa, Toshiyuki; Gloriani, Nina G; Yanagihara, Yasutake; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2014-11-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira spp. Most of the outbreaks of leptospirosis occur after floods caused by heavy rain in countries where Leptospira spp. are endemic. It has been believed that the overflow of seawater rarely causes outbreaks of leptospirosis because the leptospires are killed by salt water. On 8 November 2013, a storm surge caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) inundated the entire coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo in Leyte, Philippines. The present study was carried out in order to determine whether the environmental leptospires in soil were able to survive after the storm surge in the affected areas. We collected 23 wet soil samples along the coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo 2 months after the storm surge. The samples were suspended in HEPES buffer, and the supernatants were cultured in liquid or semisolid Korthof's medium supplemented with five antimicrobial agents to inhibit the growth of contaminants. Leptospires were isolated from primary cultures of 22 out of 23 samples. The DNA of pathogenic Leptospira species was detected in 11 samples (47.8%) by analysis of flaB by nested PCR. Eventually, two pathogenic Leptospira strains were isolated and showed the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity to Leptospira kmetyi. When these isolates were experimentally mixed with soil, they were found to survive in seawater for 4 days. These results show the possibility that leptospires living in soil survived after the storm surge. Our findings may serve as a warning that when seawater inundates the land during a storm surge or a tsunami, an outbreak of leptospirosis could occur in the disaster-stricken area. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  14. Modeling Storm Surge and Inundation in Washington, DC, during Hurricane Isabel and the 1936 Potomac River Great Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Washington, DC, the capital of the U.S., is located along the Upper Tidal Potomac River, where a reliable operational model is needed for making predictions of storm surge and river-induced flooding. We set up a finite volume model using a semi-implicit, Eulerian-Lagrangian scheme on a base grid (200 m and a special feature of sub-grids (10 m, sourced with high-resolution LiDAR data and bathymetry surveys. The model domain starts at the fall line and extends 120 km downstream to Colonial Beach, VA. The model was used to simulate storm tides during the 2003 Hurricane Isabel. The water level measuring 3.1 m reached the upper tidal river in the vicinity of Washington during the peak of the storm, followed by second and third flood peaks two and four days later, resulting from river flooding coming downstream after heavy precipitation in the watershed. The modeled water level and timing were accurate in matching with the verified peak observations within 9 cm and 3 cm, and with R2 equal to 0.93 and 0.98 at the Wisconsin Avenue and Washington gauges, respectively. A simulation was also conducted for reconstructing the historical 1936 Potomac River Great Flood that inundated downtown. It was identified that the flood water, with a velocity exceeding 2.7 m/s in the downstream of Roosevelt Island, pinched through the bank northwest of East Potomac Park near DC. The modeled maximum inundation extents revealed a crescent-shaped flooding area, which was consistent with the historical surveyed flood map of the event.

  15. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea...

  16. Modeling the Effects of Storm Surge from Hurricane Jeanne on Saltwater Intrusion into the Surficial Aquifer, East-Central Florida (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Saltwater intrusion (SWI) that has been widely recognized as a detrimental issue causing the deterioration of coastal aquifer water quality and degradation of coastal ecosystems. While it is widely recognized that SWI is exacerbated worldwide due to global sea-level rise, we show that increased SWI from tropical cyclones under climate change is also a concern. In the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) located in east-central Florida, the salinity level of the surficial aquifer is of great importance to maintain a bio-diverse ecosystem and to support the survival of various vegetation species. Climate change induced SWI into the surficial aquifer can lead to reduction of freshwater storage and alteration of the distribution and productivity of vegetation communities. In this study, a three-dimensional variable-density SEAWAT model is developed and calibrated to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of salinity level in the surficial aquifer of CCBIC. We link the SEAWAT model to surge model data to examine the effects of storm surge from Hurricane Jeanne. Simulation results indicate that the surficial aquifer salinity level increases significantly right after the occurrence of storm surge because of high aquifer permeability and rapid infiltration and diffusion of the overtopping saltwater, while the surficial aquifer salinity level begins to decrease after the fresh groundwater recharge from the storm's rainfall. The tropical storm precipitation generates an effective hydraulic barrier further impeding SWI and providing seaward freshwater discharge for saltwater dilution and flushing. To counteract the catastrophic effects of storm surge, this natural remediation process may take at least 15-20 years or even several decades. These simulation results contribute to ongoing research focusing on forecasting regional vegetation community responses to climate change, and are expected to provide a useful reference for climate change adaptation planning

  17. 76 FR 33121 - List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks: HI-STORM Flood/Wind Addition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-08

    ... Storage Casks: HI-STORM Flood/Wind Addition AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Direct final... regulations to add the Holtec HI-STORM Flood/Wind cask system to the ``List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage... Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations Section 72.214 to add the Holtec HI- STORM Flood/Wind cask...

  18. 76 FR 17019 - List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks: HI-STORM Flood/Wind Addition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-28

    ... Storage Casks: HI-STORM Flood/Wind Addition AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Direct final... regulations to add the HI-STORM Flood/Wind cask system to the ``List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks... cask designs. Discussion This rule will add the Holtec HI-STORM Flood/Wind (FW) cask system to the list...

  19. A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan C. Maloney

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

  20. Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

  1. Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yean Teh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  2. Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Su Yean; Turtora, Michael; DeAngelis, Don; Jiang Jiang,; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock Lye

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  3. A Case Study of Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Building Levees to Mitigate the Joint Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR will magnify the impacts of storm surge; the resulting severe flooding and inundation can cause huge damage to coastal communities. Community leaders are considering implementing adaptation strategies, typically hard engineering projects, to protect coastal assets and resources. It is important to understand the costs and benefits of the proposed project before any decision is made. To mitigate the flooding impact of joint effects of storm surge and SLR, building levee segments is chosen to be a corresponding adaptation strategy to protect the real estate assets in the study area—the City of Miami, FL, USA. This paper uses the classic Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA to assess the cost efficiency and proposes corresponding improvements in the benefit estimation, by estimating the avoided damages of implementing levee projects. Results show that the city will benefit from implementing levee projects along the Miami River in both a one-time 10 year storm event with SLR and cumulative long-term damage scenarios. This study also suggests that conducting CBA is a critical process before making coastal adaptation planning investment. A more meaningful result of cost effectiveness is estimated by accounting for the appreciation and time value. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to verify how the choice of discount rate influences the result. Uncertain factors including the rate of SLR, storm intensification, land use changes, and real estate appreciation are further analyzed.

  4. Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

    2016-01-01

    Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

  5. Regional-scale impact of storm surges on groundwaters of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico after 2017 hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellier, W. H.; Dürr, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes and related storm surges have devastating effects on near-shore infrastructure and above-ground installations. They also heavily impact groundwater resources, with potentially millions of people dependant on these resources as a freshwater source. Destructions of casings and direct incursions of saline and/or polluted waters have been widely observed. It is uncertain how extensive the effects are on underground water systems, especially in limestone karst areas such as Florida and Puerto Rico. Here, we report regional-scale water level changes in groundwater systems of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico for the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. We collected regional scale data from the USGS Waterdata portal. Puerto Rico shows the strongest increase in groundwater levels in wells during Hurricane Maria, with less reaction for the preceding storms Irma and Jose. Increases in water levels range from 0.5 to 11m, with maximum storm surges in Puerto Rico around 3m. These wells are located throughout Puerto Rico, on the coast and inland. In Florida, most wells that show a response during Hurricane Irma are located in the Miami region. Wells located on the west coast show smaller responses with the exception of one well located directly on Hurricane Irma's track. These wells show an increase of 0.2 to 1.7m. In Texas, wells located in proximity to Hurricane Harvey's track show an increase in water level. The effect of groundwater level increases is not limited to the Texas coast, but inland as well. An increase between 0.03 and 2.9m is seen. Storm surges for both Florida and Texas have ranged from 1.8-3.7m maximum. We discuss the findings in the context of local and regional geology and hydrogeology (presence of connected aquifer systems, faulting, presence of carbonate/karst systems etc.).

  6. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, J.P.; Ross, M.S.; Ross, M.S.; Ogurcak, D.E.; Snyder, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on post fire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with under story type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pine lands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  7. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay P. Sah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  8. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  9. Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdi, Richard J.; Lotspeich, R. Russell; Robbins, Jeanne C.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Mullaney, John R.; Massey, Andrew J.; Banks, William S.; Roland, Mark A.; Jenter, Harry L.; Peppler, Marie C.; Suro, Thomas P.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Nardi, Mark R.

    2017-06-20

    After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities.As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

  11. Coastal Flood Risks in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand: Combined Impacts of Land Subsidence, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangyiwa, C.; Yu, D.; Wilby, R.; Aobpaet, A.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the fast-changing climatic and anthropogenic conditions at coastal regions, many coastal mega-cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to internal and external risks. The risk is particularly high for low-lying coastal cities in developing nations, with Southeast Asia recognized as a hotspot of vulnerability due to the increasing population density, rapid change of natural landscape associated with urbanization and intensified hydrological and atmospheric conditions at the coastal front in an uncertain climate future. The Bangkok Metropolitan Region is one of the largest coastal megacities in Southeast Asia that are challenged by the potential impacts due to climate change and anthropological variability in the coming decades. Climate-related risks in this region are associated with its relatively low-lying nature of the terrain and adjacency to the coast. Coastal inundation due to high tides from the sea occurs annually in the area close to the seashore. This is set to increase given a projected rising sea level and the sinking landscape due to groundwater extraction and urbanization. The aim of this research is, therefore, to evaluate the vulnerability of the city to sea level rise, land subsidence and storm surge. Distributed land subsidence rate, projected sea level rise and existing structural features such as flood defences are taken into account. The 2011 flood in Thailand is used as a baseline event. Scenarios were designed with projections of land subsidence and sea level rise to 2050s, 2080s, and 2100s. A two-dimensional flood inundation model (FloodMap, Yu and Lane 2006) is used to derive inundation depth and velocity associated with each scenario. The impacts of coastal flood risk on critical infrastructures (e.g. power supply, transportation network, rescue centers, hospitals, schools and key government buildings) are evaluated (e.g. Figure 1). Results suggest progressively increase but non-linear risks of coastal flooding to key coastal

  12. The transforming perception of a regional geohazard between coastal defence and mediated discourse on global warming: Storm surges in Hamburg, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverla, I.; Lüthje, C.

    2010-03-01

    The term regional geohazard is used for a major geophysical risk which can lead to a natural disaster. The effects will be strictly located to a specific region. It is expected but still not proven that global warming will intensify weather extremes and thus the number of regional geohazards will increase. Regional geohazards are not dangerous per se, but from the perspective of human being certain weather and nature extremes are considered dangerous as they impose damage on human beings and their belongings. Therefore the media often call them ‘natural disaster’ and as a matter of fact it seems to be a ‘must’ - according to theory and practice of news selections - that media report on any natural disaster that occur in their region. Moreover, media even report on geohazards in any other region as soon as these events seem to have any general impact. The major geophysical risk along the coast of the North Sea is storm surges. A long list of historical disasters has deeply engraved the ubiquity of this hazard into the collective memory and habitus of the local population. Not only coastal region is concerned by this danger but also the megacity of Hamburg. Hamburg is the second-largest city in Germany and the sixth-largest city in the European Union. The Hamburg Metropolitan Region has more than 4.3 million inhabitants. The estuary of the river Elbe extends from Cuxhaven (coast) to Hamburg a distance of about 130 km. Hamburg has often been subject to storm surges with significant damages. But after the storm flood in 1855 for more than 100 years until 1962 no severe storm surge happened. The Big Flood in the night from February 16 to February 17 1962 destroyed the homes of about 60.000 people. The death toll amounted to 315 in the city of Hamburg, where the storm surge had a traumatic impact and was followed by political decisions driven by the believe in technological solutions. After 1962 massive investments into the coastal defence were made and dikes

  13. Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Smith, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.

  14. Non-Tidal Ocean Loading Correction for the Argentinean-German Geodetic Observatory Using an Empirical Model of Storm Surge for the Río de la Plata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreiro, F. A.; Wziontek, H.; Fiore, M. M. E.; D'Onofrio, E. E.; Brunini, C.

    2017-08-01

    The Argentinean-German Geodetic Observatory is located 13 km from the Río de la Plata, in an area that is frequently affected by storm surges that can vary the level of the river over ±3 m. Water-level information from seven tide gauge stations located in the Río de la Plata are used to calculate every hour an empirical model of water heights (tidal + non-tidal component) and an empirical model of storm surge (non-tidal component) for the period 01/2016-12/2016. Using the SPOTL software, the gravimetric response of the models and the tidal response are calculated, obtaining that for the observatory location, the range of the tidal component (3.6 nm/s2) is only 12% of the range of the non-tidal component (29.4 nm/s2). The gravimetric response of the storm surge model is subtracted from the superconducting gravimeter observations, after applying the traditional corrections, and a reduction of 7% of the RMS is obtained. The wavelet transform is applied to the same series, before and after the non-tidal correction, and a clear decrease in the spectral energy in the periods between 2 and 12 days is identify between the series. Using the same software East, North and Up displacements are calculated, and a range of 3, 2, and 11 mm is obtained, respectively. The residuals obtained after applying the non-tidal correction allow to clearly identify the influence of rain events in the superconducting gravimeter observations, indicating the need of the analysis of this, and others, hydrological and geophysical effects.

  15. The predictability of wind gusts associated with winter storms over central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

    2017-04-01

    Wind storms associated with low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic are the most important natural hazard for central Europe. Although the forecast of winter storms has generally improved over the last decades, a detailed prediction of the associated wind gusts is still challenging due to the multiple scales involved. Here we report about new insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe storms of the 1995-2015 period using data from the recently available homogeneous re-forecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) evaluated against ERA-Interim reanalysis. In contrast to operational predictions, the re-forecast dataset is generated with an identical data assimilation and forecasting system over a time period long enough to allow a statistical analysis of historical events. The predictability of the storms is assessed with two sets of metrics: (a) the position and intensity to investigate the storms' propagation and dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index (SSI) to estimate the impact of wind gusts associated with the storms. This analysis shows that the storms are captured by the ensemble re-forecasts up to 2-4 days ahead only, which restricts the use of ensemble mean and spread to relatively short lead times. However, the metrics also show that the storms are correctly predicted at least by some ensemble members up to one week ahead. Following this result, the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) are computed from the individual re-forecasts and the model climate. Using these indices, we show that the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates clear potential for the early warning of storms. However, a large variability is found between the predictability of individual storms, which does not appear to be related to the storms' characteristics. This may be due to the limited sample of 25 cases, but also suggests that each

  16. Experimental verification of the effect of cable length on voltage distribution in stator winding of an induction motor under surge condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyegoke, B.S. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). Lab. of Electromechanics

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents the results of surge distribution tests performed on a stator of a 6 kV induction motor. The primary aim of these tests was to determine the wave propagation properties of the machine winding fed via cables of different lengths. Considering the measured resorts, conclusions are derived regarding the effect of cable length on the surge distribution within the stator winding of an ac motor. (orig.) 15 refs.

  17. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) HIGH-ALTITUDE IMAGING WIND AND RAIN AIRBORNE PROFILER (HIWRAP) V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain dataset was collected from the High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne...

  18. Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

    2014-01-01

    To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both

  19. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo; Larsen, Søren

    2017-11-01

    The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height ( H s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period.

  20. Time Delay Between Dst Index and Magnetic Storm Related Structure in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Fainberg, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Benson et al. (2015, this volume) selected 10 large magnetic storms, with associated Dst minimum values less than or equal to -100 nT, for which high-latitude topside ionospheric electron density profiles are available from topside-sounder satellites. For these 10 storms, we performed a superposition of Dst and interplanetary parameters B, v, N(sub p) and T(sub p). We have found that two interplanetary parameters, namely B and v, are sufficient to reproduce Dst with correlation coefficient cc approximately 0.96 provided that the interplanetary parameter times are taken 0.15 days earlier than the associated Dst times. Thus we have found which part of the solar wind is responsible for each phase of the magnetic storm. This result is also verified for individual storms as well. The total duration of SRS (storm related structure in the solar wind) is 4 - 5 days which is the same as the associated Dst interval of the magnetic storm.

  1. Wind fields of storms from surface isobars for wave hindcasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.; Vaithiyanathan, R.; Santanam, K.

    Marine operations of various types are critically linked to mean and extreme wave statistics. In the Indian seas extreme wave conditions are caused by cyclones and steady strong monsoon winds. Wave data from cyclone areas are not directly available...

  2. Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai, Alice R; Jiang, Jonathan H

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependences of normalized US hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the US from 1988 through 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (V max ) and size (R), L = 10 c V max a R b , with c determining an overall scaling factor and the exponents a and b generally ranging between 4–12 and 2–4 respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about three times of the average size of all hurricanes analyzed. Based on the bi-variate regression model that explains the most variance for hurricanes, Hurricane Sandy’s loss would be approximately 20 times smaller if its size were of the average size with maximum wind speed unchanged. It is important to revise conventional empirical hurricane loss models that are only dependent on maximum wind speed to include both maximum wind speed and size as predictors. (letters)

  3. Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi-Ying; Gardiner, Barry; Pasztor, Ferenc; Blennow, Kristina; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Naudts, Kim; Otto, Juliane; McGrath, Matthew J.; Planque, Carole; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2018-03-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind-throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km2 pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3, which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3, which is between 10 and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of

  4. Dynamics of the Solar Wind Electromagnetic Energy Transmission Into Magnetosphere during Large Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara; Laptukhov, Alexej; Petrov, Valery

    Causes of the geomagnetic activity (GA) in the report are divided into temporal changes of the solar wind parameters and the changes of the geomagnetic moment orientation relative directions of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields. Based on our previous study we concluded that a reconnection based on determining role of mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment taking into account effects of the Earth's orbital and daily motions is the most effective compared with existing mechanisms. At present a reconnection as paradigma that has applications in broad fields of physics needs analysis of experimental facts to be developed. In terms of reconnection it is important not only mutual orientation of vectors describing physics of interaction region but and reconnection rate which depends from rate of energy flux to those regions where the reconnection is permitted. Applied to magnetosphere these regions first of all are dayside magnetopause and polar caps. Influence of rate of the energy flux to the lobe magnetopause (based on calculations of the Poyting electromagnetic flux component controlling the reconnection rate along the solar wind velocity Pv) on planetary GA (Dst, Kp indices) is investigated at different phases of geomagnetic storms. We study also the rate of energy flux to the polar caps during storms (based on calculations of the Poyting flux vector component along the geomagnetic moment Pm) and its influence on magnetic activity in the polar ionosphere: at the auroral zone (AU,AL indices). Results allow to evaluate contributions of high and low latitude sources of electromagnetic energy to the storm development and also to clear mechanism of the electromagnetic energy transmission from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. We evaluate too power of the solar wind electromagnetic energy during well-known large storms and compare result with power of the energy sources of other geophysical processes (atmosphere, ocean

  5. Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    iii Figures and Tables ...Appendix E: NACCS Expanded List of Historical TCs..................................................... 201 ERDC/CHL TR-15-5 vi Figures and Tables ... synoptic time series of astronomical tide, water level, surge (NTR), wind speed, and atmospheric pressure for storm screening

  6. Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ga-Hee Moon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are divided into three types, which are coronal mass ejection (CME-driven storms, co-rotating interaction region (CIR-driven storms, and complicated type storms. Complicated types were not included in this study. For this purpose, the manner in which the direction change of IMF By and Bz components (in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system coordinate during the main phase is related with the development of the storm is examined. The time-integrated solar wind parameters are compared with the time-integrated disturbance storm time (Dst index during the main phase of each magnetic storm. The time lag with the storm size is also investigated. Some results are worth noting: CME-driven storms, under steady conditions of Bz < 0, represent more than half of the storms in number. That is, it is found that the average number of storms for negative sign of IMF Bz (T1~T4 is high, at 56.4%, 53.0%, and 63.7% in each storm category, respectively. However, for the CIR-driven storms, the percentage of moderate storms is only 29.2%, while the number of intense storms is more than half (60.0% under the Bz < 0 condition. It is found that the correlation is highest between the time-integrated IMF Bz and the time-integrated Dst index for the CME-driven storms. On the other hand, for the CIR-driven storms, a high correlation is found, with the correlation coefficient being 0.93, between time-integrated Dst index and time-integrated solar wind speed, while a low correlation, 0.51, is

  7. Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adekoya, B. J.; Chukwuma, V. U.

    2018-01-01

    Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) that occurred during 1997-2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S + E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S + C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S + E. The Bz is high (≥10 nT), high density (ρ) (>10 N/cm3), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10 nT, low temperature (T ≤ 400,000 K), low ρ (≤10 N/cm3), high V (≥450 km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S + C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V ≤ 450 km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst ≤ -200 nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13 mV/m).

  8. Study of the responsible factors for the closure of an intermittent washout during a storm surge, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Serpa, Christian Garcia; Romeu, Marco Antônio Rígola; Fontoura, Jose Antonio Scotti; Calliari, Lauro Julio; Melo Filho, Eloi; Albuquerque, Miguel da Guia

    2011-01-01

    The washouts are water courses essential to the drainage of the water accumulated in the backshore zone, and are responsible for great ruptures in the dunes field. They supply the swash zone with large amounts of sediment. The study area is located a few kilometers south of the Patos Lagoon Inlet. This study measures the contribution of the wind, the waves, the atmospheric pressure and the tide on the elevation of the sea level in a period when the beach has suffered the impact of a storm sur...

  9. 76 FR 17037 - List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks: HI-STORM Flood/Wind Addition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-28

    ...-0007] RIN 3150-AI90 List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks: HI-STORM Flood/Wind Addition AGENCY... or the Commission) is proposing to amend its spent fuel storage cask regulations to add the HI-STORM...: June 13, 2011. SAR Submitted by: Holtec International, Inc. SAR Title: Safety Analysis Report on the HI...

  10. Development of an Extratropical Storm Wind, Wave, and Water Level Climatology for the Offshore Mid-Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    ERDC) for providing the POT algorithm and helpful insights into extremal analysis; Dr. Robert Jensen and Dr. Tyler Hesser (ERDC) for providing...powerful extratropical storms occurring on 27–29 January and 4–6 February 1998 detailed in Ramsey et al. (1998). These two storms generated winds in...surface wind speeds. Part I: Theory and seawinds observations. Journal of Climate 19:497–520. Ramsey , R., D. Leathers, D. Wells, and H. Talley. 1998

  11. SAPS effects on thermospheric winds during the 17 March 2013 storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, C.; Lu, G.; Wang, W.; Doornbos, E.; Talaat, E. R.

    2017-12-01

    Strong subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) were observed by DMSP satellites during the main phase of the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm. Both DMSP F18 and GOCE satellites sampled at 19 MLT during this period, providing near-simultaneous measurements of ion drifts and neutral winds near dusk. The fortuitous satellite conjunction allows us to directly examine the SAPS effects on thermospheric winds. In addition, two sets of model runs were carried out for this event: (1) the standard TIEGCM run with high-latitude forcing; (2) the SAPS-TIEGCM run by incoporating an empirical model of SAPS in the subauroral zone. The difference between these two runs represents the influence of SAPS forcing. In particular, we examine ion-neutral coupling at subauroral latitudes through detailed forcing term analysis to determine how the SAPS-related strong westward ion drifts alter thermospheric winds.

  12. Satellite accelerometer measurements of neutral density and winds during geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, F. A.; Forbes, J. M.

    1986-01-01

    A new thermospheric wind measurement technique is reported which is based on a Satellite Electrostatic Triaxial Accelerometer (SETA) system capable of accurately measuring accelerations in the satellite's in-track, cross-track and radial directions. Data obtained during two time periods are presented. The first data set describes cross-track winds measured between 170 and 210 km during a 5-day period (25 to 29 March 1979) of mostly high geomagnetic activity. In the second data set, cross-track winds and neutral densities from SETA and exospheric temperatures from the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar are examined during an isolated magnetic substorm occurring on 21 March 1979. A polar thermospheric wind circulation consisting of a two cell horizontal convection pattern is reflected in both sets of cross-track acceleration measurements. The density response is highly asymmetric with respect to its day/night behavior. Latitude structures of the density response at successive times following the substorm peak suggest the equatorward propagation of a disturbance with a phase speed between 300 and 600 m/s. A deep depression in the density at high latitudes (less than 70 deg) is evident in conjunction with this phenomenon. The more efficient propagation of the disturbance to lower latitudes during the night is probably due to the midnight surge effect.

  13. Intense Geomagnetic Storms Associated with Coronal Holes Under the Weak Solar-Wind Conditions of Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watari, S.

    2018-02-01

    The activity of Solar Cycle 24 has been extraordinarily low. The yearly averaged solar-wind speed is also lower in Cycle 24 than in Cycles 22 and 23. The yearly averaged speed in the rising phase of Cycle 21 is as low as that of Cycle 24, although the solar activity of Cycle 21 is higher than that of Cycle 24. The relationship between the solar-wind temperature and its speed is preserved under the solar-wind conditions of Cycle 24. Previous studies have shown that only a few percent of intense geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst < -100 nT) were caused by high-speed solar-wind flows from coronal holes. We identify two geomagnetic storms associated with coronal holes within the 19 intense geomagnetic storms that took place in Cycle 24.

  14. The boundary layer of Tropical Storm Erika (2015) observed by airborne Doppler Wind Lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Emmitt, G. D.; Atlas, R. M.; Bucci, L. R.; Ryan, K. E.; O'Handley, C.; Marks, F.

    2016-12-01

    This talk presents analysis of the Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) measured wind profiles in Tropical Storm (TS) Erika (2015) by NOAA's P3 aircraft. This work was funded by NOAA's Sandy Supplemental Program that supports new technologies such as the DWL for hurricane research. It is for the first time, the DWL onboard a NOAA P3 has become operational in hurricane reconnaissance missions and collected high-quality wind profile data. The DWL wind profiles were first verified against the collocated dropsonde and Doppler radar observations, showing good agreement. To the authors' knowledge, the DWL data collected in TS Erika provided the best data coverage in the boundary layer of any given TS. This data set allows us to investigate the detailed boundary layer structure, including the boundary layer height, the strength of the inflow and outflow, and their asymmetric distributions. Composite analysis of the DWL data shows that the axisymmetric boundary layer structure of TS Erika is largely different from that of a typical hurricane from previous dropsonde observations. The vorticity budget conducted using the DWL data suggests that the boundary layer of TS Erika is far from being in vorticity balance. The large magnitude of boundary-layer divergence and the small magnitude of mass flux above the boundary layer may explain why TS Erika did not intensify during the period of observation. The boundary-layer structure asymmetry is found to be tied to the vortex tilt that is induced by the environmental vertical wind shear.

  15. A Proton-Cyclotron Wave Storm Generated by Unstable Proton Distribution Functions in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, R. T.; Alexander, R. L.; Stevens, M.; Wilson, L. B., III; Moya, P. S.; Vinas, A.; Jian, L. K.; Roberts, D. A.; O’Modhrain, S.; Gilbert, J. A.; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use audification of 0.092 seconds cadence magnetometer data from the Wind spacecraft to identify waves with amplitudes greater than 0.1 nanoteslas near the ion gyrofrequency (approximately 0.1 hertz) with duration longer than 1 hour during 2008. We present one of the most common types of event for a case study and find it to be a proton-cyclotron wave storm, coinciding with highly radial magnetic field and a suprathermal proton beam close in density to the core distribution itself. Using linear Vlasov analysis, we conclude that the long-duration, large-amplitude waves are generated by the instability of the proton distribution function. The origin of the beam is unknown, but the radial field period is found in the trailing edge of a fast solar wind stream and resembles other events thought to be caused by magnetic field footpoint motion or interchange reconnection between coronal holes and closed field lines in the corona.

  16. A retrospective tiered environmental assessment of the Mount Storm Wind Energy Facility, West Virginia,USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann [ORNL; Day, Robin [No Affiliation; Strickland, M. Dale [Western EcoSystems Technology

    2012-11-01

    Bird and bat fatalities from wind energy projects are an environmental and public concern, with post-construction fatalities sometimes differing from predictions. Siting facilities in this context can be a challenge. In March 2012 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released Land-based Wind Energy Guidelines to assess collision fatalities and other potential impacts to species of concern and their habitats to aid in siting and management. The Guidelines recommend a tiered approach for assessing risk to wildlife, including a preliminary site evaluation that may evaluate alternative sites, a site characterization, field studies to document wildlife and habitat and to predict project impacts, post construction studies to estimate impacts, and other post construction studies. We applied the tiered assessment framework to a case study site, the Mount Storm Wind Energy Facility in Grant County, West Virginia, USA, to demonstrate the use of the USFWS assessment approach, to indicate how the use of a tiered assessment framework might have altered outputs of wildlife assessments previously undertaken for the case study site, and to assess benefits of a tiered ecological assessment framework for siting wind energy facilities. The conclusions of this tiered assessment for birds are similar to those of previous environmental assessments for Mount Storm. This assessment found risk to individual migratory tree-roosting bats that was not emphasized in previous preconstruction assessments. Differences compared to previous environmental assessments are more related to knowledge accrued in the past 10 years rather than to the tiered structure of the Guidelines. Benefits of the tiered assessment framework include good communication among stakeholders, clear decision points, a standard assessment trajectory, narrowing the list of species of concern, improving study protocols, promoting consideration of population-level effects, promoting adaptive management through post

  17. The Climatology of Extreme Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme coastal storms devastate heavily populated areas around the world by producing powerful winds that can create a large storm surge. Both tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) occur over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and the risks associated with ETCs can be just as severe as those associated with tropical storms (e.g. high winds, storm surge). At The Battery in New York City, 17 of the 20 largest storm surge events were a consequence of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which are more prevalent than tropical cyclones in the northeast region of the United States. Therefore, we analyze the climatology of ETCs that are capable of producing a large storm surge along the northeastern coast of the United States. For a historical analysis, water level data was collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges at three separate locations (Sewell's Pt., VA, The Battery, NY, and Boston, MA). We perform a k-means cluster analysis of sea level pressure from the ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis dataset (ERA-20c) to explore the natural sets of observed storms with similar characteristics. We then composite cluster results with features of atmospheric circulation to observe the influence of interannual and multidecadal variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Since observational records contain a small number of well-documented ETCs, the capability of a high-resolution coupled climate model to realistically simulate such extreme coastal storms will also be assessed. Global climate models provide a means of simulating a much larger sample of extreme events, allowing for better resolution of the tail of the distribution. We employ a tracking algorithm to identify ETCs in a multi-century simulation under present-day conditions. Quantitative comparisons of cyclolysis, cyclogenesis, and cyclone densities of simulated ETCs and storms from recent history (using reanalysis products) are conducted.

  18. Surface Wind Fields in the Vicinity of Meso-Convective Storms as Derived from Radar Observations: Non-Tornadic Storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-12-01

    comparisons. FIELD 1 FIELD 2 PROCEDURE SAM Winds Winds from TWIND COMPLOT SAM Winds Modified DRWF MODPLOT (DW from TWIND) DRWF SAM Radial Winds... COMPLOT DRWF Radial Winds COMPLOT from TWIND 1,v 35 Part Two The method used to accomplish the second part of this research objective was to compare the...earlier researchers. Table 2.4 provided the comparisons and the procedure used for each comparison. Two computer programs, composite plot ( COMPLOT ) and

  19. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

  20. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring

  1. WIND-STORM: A Decision Support System for the Strategic Management of Windthrow Crises by the Forest Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Riguelle

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Storms are one of the most damaging agents for European forests and can cause huge and long-term economic impacts on the forest sector. Recent events and research haves contributed to a better understanding and management of destructive storms, but public authorities still lack appropriate decision-support tools for evaluating their strategic decisions in the aftermath of a storm. This paper presents a decision support system (DSS that compares changes in the dynamics of the regional forest-based sector after storm events under various crisis management options. First, the development and implementation of a regional forest model is addressed; then, the potential application of the model-based DSS WIND-STORM is illustrated. The results of simulated scenarios reveal that this DSS type is useful for designing a cost-effective regional strategy for storm-damage management in the context of scarce public resources and that public strategies must encompass the whole forest-based sector to be efficient. Additional benefits of such a DSS is to bring together decision-makers and forest stakeholders for a common objective and therefore to enhance participatory approaches to crisis management.

  2. Dependence of geomagnetic activity during magnetic storms on the solar wind parameters for different types of streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaeva, N. S.; Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Lodkina, I. G.

    2011-02-01

    The dependence of the maximal values of the | Dst| and AE geomagnetic indices observed during magnetic storms on the value of the interplanetary electric field ( E y ) was studied based on the catalog of the large-scale solar wind types created using the OMNI database for 1976-2000 [Yermolaev et al., 2009]. An analysis was performed for eight categories of magnetic storms caused by different types of solar wind streams: corotating interaction regions (CIR, 86 storms); magnetic clouds (MC, 43); Sheath before MCs (ShMC, 8); Ejecta (95); Sheath (ShE, 56); all ICME events (MC + Ejecta, 138); all compression regions Sheaths before MCs and Ejecta (ShMC + ShE, 64); and an indeterminate type of storm (IND, 75). It was shown that the | Dst| index value increases with increasing electric field E y for all eight types of streams. When electric fields are strong ( E y > 11 mV m-1), the | Dst| index value becomes saturated within magnetic clouds MCs and possibly within all ICMEs (MC + Ejecta). The AE index value during magnetic storms is independent of the electric field value E y for almost all streams except magnetic clouds MCs and possibly the compressed (Sheath) region before them (ShMC). The AE index linearly increases within MC at small values of the electric field ( E y 11 mV m-1). Since the dynamic pressure ( Pd) and IMF fluctuations (σ B) correlate with the E y value in all solar wind types, both geomagnetic indices (| Dst| and AE) do not show an additional dependence on Pd and IMF δ B. The nonlinear relationship between the intensities of the | Dst| and AE indices and the electric field E y component, observed within MCs and possibly all ICMEs during strong electric fields E y , agrees with modeling the magnetospheric-ionospheric current system of zone 1 under the conditions of the polar cap potential saturation.

  3. Mid-latitude thermospheric wind changes during the St. Patrick's Day storm of 2015 observed by two Fabry-Perot interferometers in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cong; Xu, Ji-Yao; Zhang, Xiao-Xin; Liu, Dan-Dan; Yuan, Wei; Jiang, Guo-Ying

    2018-04-01

    In this work, we utilize thermospheric wind observations by the Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPI) from the Kelan (KL) station (38.7°N, 111.6°E, Magnetic Latitude: 28.9°N) and the Xinglong (XL) station (40.2°N, 117.4°E, Magnetic Latitude: 30.5°N) in central China during the St. Patrick's Day storm (from Mar. 17 to Mar. 19) of 2015 to analyze thermospheric wind disturbances and compare observations with the Horizontal Wind Model 2007 (HWM07). The results reveal that the wind measurements at KL show very similar trends to those at XL. Large enhancements are seen in both the westward and equatorward winds after the severe geomagnetic storm occurred. The westward wind speed increased to a peak value of 75 m/s and the equatorward wind enhanced to a peak value of over 100 m/s. There also exist obvious poleward disturbances in the meridional winds during Mar. 17 to Mar. 19. According to the comparison with HWM07, there exist evident wind speed and temporal differences between FPI-winds and the model outputs in this severe geomagnetic storm. The discrepancies between the observations and HWM07 imply that the empirical model should be used carefully in wind disturbance forecast during large geomagnetic storms and more investigations between measurements and numerical models are necessary in future studies.

  4. Kiel Canal: Past and future threats for shipping resulting from precipitation, wind surge and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganske, Anette; Hüttl-Kabus, Sabine; Möller, Jens; Schade, Nils; Heinrich, Hartmut; Tinz, Birger

    2017-04-01

    The Kiel Canal is the most frequented artificial waterway in the world. It connects the North Sea and the Hamburg Harbor with the Baltic Sea and has a length of about 100 km. The Canal receives its water from the upper catchment of the river Eider. Discharge from the Canal towards the North Sea is via the sluices at Brunsbüttel (90%) into river Elbe and into the Baltic Sea via the sluices at Kiel-Holtenau. A risk of closure of the Canal occurs when high precipitation in the catchment meets high water levels in the river Elbe and/or the Baltic preventing the discharge of excess Canal water. Future sea level rise jointly with other effects such as possibly increasing wind surge and precipitation will close the gap between the inner and outer water levels, so that someday the outside levels will surmount the inner one. The German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) tasked its internal Network of Experts to run a case study on the evolution of critical water levels in order to estimate risks and vulnerabilities for adaptation measures. First step of the investigation is a search for factors or combination of factors responsible for closures in the past. Candidates are factors such as higher water levels at low tides, high precipitation events on land, soil moisture and human factors like preventive water management measures. Second step will be the search for the natural criteria in climate projections. Here we report on the results of the first step of the case study with a focus on the exit towards the North Sea. There, discharge is possible only during low tide. Presently still sufficient difference in height exists between the levels in the Canal and the river Elbe allowing for a free flow of excess Canal water. Shipping is ceased when levels in the Canal surpass safety limits due to high precipitation events in the catchment jointly with high outer water levels. We used atmospheric data from ERA-Interim reanalysis instead of gauge data

  5. Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    Full Text Available An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst one hour in advance. The Bz-component and ΣBz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.

  6. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Subrahmanyam

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a direct penetration of the magnetospheric electric fields to low latitudes, (b development of disturbance dynamo, (c changes in atmospheric neutral winds at ionospheric level and (d changes in neutral composition triggered by the storm time atmospheric heating.

    In the present study an attempt is made to further understand some of the observed storm time effects in terms of storm time changes in zonal electric fields and meridional neutral winds. For this purpose, observations made by the Retarding Potential Analyzer (RPA payload on board the Indian satellite SROSS-C2 are examined for four prominent geomagnetic storm events that occurred during the high solar activity period of 1997-2000. Available simultaneous observations, from the GPS satellite network, are also used. The daytime passes of SROSS-C2 have been selected to examine the redistribution of ionization in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA region. In general, EIA is observed to be weakened 12-24 h after the main phase onset (MPO of the storm. The storm time behaviour inferred by SROSS-C2 and the GPS satellite network during the geomagnetic storm of 13 November 1998, for which simultaneous observations are available, is found to be consistent. Storm time changes in the delay of received GPS signals are noted to be ~1-3 m, which is a significant component of the total delay observed on a quiet day.

    An attempt is made to identify and

  7. Response of large-scale coastal basins to wind forcing: influence of topography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Wenlong; Roos, Pieter C.; Schuttelaars, H.M.; Kumar, M.; Zitman, T.J.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.

    2016-01-01

    Because wind is one of the main forcings in storm surge, we present an idealised process-based model to study the influence of topographic variations on the frequency response of large-scale coastal basins subject to time-periodic wind forcing. Coastal basins are represented by a semi-enclosed

  8. Solar wind variations and geomagnetic storms: A study of individual storms based on a high time resolution ISEE-3 data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akasofu, S.h.; Olmsted, C.; Smith, E.J.; Tsurutani, B.; Okida, R.; Baker, D.N.

    1985-01-01

    We employ two independent methods to determine the relationship between the epsilon parameter and the total energy dissipation rate of the magnetosphere by selecting disturbed periods from the same data set used by Baker et al. (1983). Specifically, four storms are examined in detail, since the accuracy of estimating U/sub T/ is significantly improved during disturbed periods. The first method assumes U/sub T/ = M/sub A//sup 2alpha/epsilon, where M/sub A/ is the Alfven Mach number and α varies with time. The second method considers a linear, time-invariant dynamic system with epsilon as input and U/sub T/ as output. This means U/sub T/ = W*epsilon, where * is convolution and W is a transfer function characteristic of the system. It is found that α values fluctuate mainly between 0 and -0.25. The transfer function analysis indicates that W often resembles a delta-function or a narrow rectangular impulse. Both results give the same implication (namely, U/sub T/ approx.epsilon) and thus are consistent with the view that the magnetosphere is primarily a directly driven system during disturbed periods

  9. A Perspective on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge from Southern and Eastern Africa: A Case Study Near Durban, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek D. Stretch

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent coastal storms in southern Africa have highlighted the need for more proactive management of the coastline. Within the southern and eastern African region the availability of coastal information is poor. The greatest gap in information is the likely effects of a combination of severe sea storms and future sea level rise (SLR on the shoreline. This lack of information creates a barrier to informed decision making. This research outlines a practical localized approach to this problem, which can be applied as a first order assessment within the region. In so doing it provides a cost effective and simple decision support tool for the built environment and disaster professionals in development and disaster assessments. In a South African context the newly promulgated Integrated Coastal Management Act requires that all proposed coastal developments take into consideration future SLR, however such information currently does not exist, despite it being vital for informed planning in the coastal zone. This practical approach has been applied to the coastline of Durban, South Africa as a case study. The outputs are presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS based freeware viewer tool enabling ease of access to both professionals and laypersons. This demonstrates that a simple approach can provide valuable information about the current and future risk of flooding and coastal erosion under climate change to buildings, infrastructure as well as natural features along the coast.

  10. Aeroservoelastic analysis of storm-ride-through control strategies for wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tibaldi, Carlo; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2016-01-01

    An investigation of a control strategy to allow wind turbines to operate at high wind speeds by derating the rotor speed and generator torque set-points is presented. The investigation analyzes the wind turbine aeroservoelastic behavior in the above rated operational range by computing the aerody...

  11. Analysis of Hurricane Irene’s Wind Field Using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred M. Klausmann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Irene caused widespread and significant impacts along the U.S. east coast during 27–29 August 2011. During this period, the storm moved across eastern North Carolina and then tracked northward crossing into Long Island and western New England. Impacts included severe flooding from the mid-Atlantic states into eastern New York and western New England, widespread wind damage and power outages across a large portion of southern and central New England, and a major storm surge along portions of the Long Island coast. The objective of this study was to conduct retrospective simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW model in an effort to reconstruct the storm’s surface wind field during the period of 27–29 August 2011. The goal was to evaluate how to use the WRF modeling system as a tool for reconstructing the surface wind field from historical storm events to support storm surge studies. The results suggest that, with even modest data assimilation applied to these simulations, the model was able to resolve the detailed structure of the storm, the storm track, and the spatial surface wind field pattern very well. The WRF model shows real potential for being used as a tool to analyze historical storm events to support storm surge studies.

  12. Laboratory Research of the Two-Layer Liquid Dynamics at the Wind Surge in a Strait Canal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.F. Dotsenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The results of laboratory experiments in a straight aerohydrocanal of the rectangular cross-section filled with the two-layer (fresh-salty liquid are represented. The disturbance generator is the air flow directed to the area above the canal. The cases of the two-layer liquid dynamics in the canal with the horizontal flat bottom and in the presence of the bottom obstacle of finite width are considered. It is shown that during the surge in the straight canal, one of the possible exchange mechanisms on the boundary of fresh and salty layers may consist in the salt water emissions (resulted from the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability to the upper freshwater layer. The subsequent eviction can possibly be accompanied by occurrence of undulations at the interface. Besides, the evictions can be followed by formation of the oscillating layer, i.e. the layer with maximum density gradient the oscillations of which propagate to the overlying layers. Presence of the bottom obstacle complicates the structure of the two-layer liquid motions. In particular, it results in emergence of the mixed layers and transformation of the flow behind the obstacle into a turbulent one, formation of the wave-like disturbances over the obstacle, sharp change of the interface position and occurrence of large-scale vortices with the horizontal axes. It is revealed that the maximum peak of the flow velocity horizontal component is shifted upstream from the obstacle.

  13. Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; McCall, Robert T.; van Rooijen, Arnold; Norris, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

  14. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental

  15. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil K.; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented.Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion.Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term

  16. Quantitative detection of mass concentration of sand-dust storms via wind-profiling radar and analysis of Z- M relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Minzhong; Ming, Hu; Ruan, Zheng; Gao, Lianhui; Yang, Di

    2018-02-01

    With the aim to achieve quantitative monitoring of sand-dust storms in real time, wind-profiling radar is applied to monitor and study the process of four sand-dust storms in the Tazhong area of the Taklimakan Desert. Through evaluation and analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of reflectivity factor, it is found that reflectivity factor ranges from 2 to 18 dBz under sand-dust storm weather. Using echo power spectrum of radar vertical beams, sand-dust particle spectrum and sand-dust mass concentration at the altitude of 600 ˜ 1500 m are retrieved. This study shows that sand-dust mass concentration reaches 700 μg/m3 under blowing sand weather, 2000 μg/m3 under sand-dust storm weather, and 400 μg/m3 under floating dust weather. The following equations are established to represent the relationship between the reflectivity factor and sand-dust mass concentration: Z = 20713.5 M 0.995 under floating dust weather, Z = 22988.3 M 1.006 under blowing sand weather, and Z = 24584.2 M 1.013 under sand-dust storm weather. The retrieval results from this paper are almost consistent with previous monitoring results achieved by former researchers; thus, it is implied that wind-profiling radar can be used as a new reference device to quantitatively monitor sand-dust storms.

  17. Balancing Performance, Noise, Cost, and Aesthetics in the Southwest Windpower "Storm" Wind Turbine: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Migliore, P.; Green, J.; Calley, D.; Lonjaret, J.

    2005-08-01

    This paper describes the design, fabrication, and testing of an 1800-watt innovative small wind turbine and discusses the importance of idiosyncratic aerodynamic and aeroacoustic airfoil characteristics for clean airfoils at low Reynolds numbers.

  18. 76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ... information, please check the forum Web site at https://sites.google.com/a/noaa.gov/extreme-winds-waves... process. As materials for this forum become available, they may be found at https://sites.google.com/a...

  19. Soil slip/debris flow localized by site attributes and wind-driven rain in the San Francisco Bay region storm of January 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, R.J.; Sobieszczyk, S.

    2008-01-01

    GIS analysis at 30-m resolution reveals that effectiveness of slope-destabilizing processes in the San Francisco Bay area varies with compass direction. Nearly half the soil slip/debris flows mapped after the catastrophic rainstorm of 3-5 January 1982 occurred on slopes that face S to WSW, whereas fewer than one-quarter have a northerly aspect. Azimuthal analysis of hillside properties for susceptible terrain near the city of Oakland suggests that the skewed aspect of these landslides primarily reflects vegetation type, ridge and valley alignment, and storm-wind direction. Bedrock geology, soil expansivity, and terrain height and gradient also were influential but less so; the role of surface curvature is not wholly resolved. Normalising soil-slip aspect by that of the region's NNW-striking topography shifts the modal azimuth of soil-slip aspect from SW to SE, the direction of origin of winds during the 1982 storm-but opposite that of the prevailing WNW winds. Wind from a constant direction increases rainfall on windward slopes while diminishing it on leeward slopes, generating a modelled difference in hydrologically effective rainfall of up to 2:1 on steep hillsides in the Oakland area. This contrast is consistent with numerical simulations of wind-driven rain and with rainfall thresholds for debris-flow activity. We conclude that storm winds from the SE in January 1982 raised the vulnerability of the Bay region's many S-facing hillsides, most of which are covered in shallow-rooted shrub and grass that offer minimal resistance to soil slip. Wind-driven rainfall also appears to have controlled debris-flow location in a major 1998 storm and probably others. Incorporating this overlooked influence into GIS models of debris-flow likelihood would improve predictions of the hazard in central California and elsewhere.

  20. Reconstruction of solar wind features that caused a super geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, A. T. Y.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2013-06-01

    A superstorm with Dst < -300 nT can cause major space disturbances. We examine one on March 31, 2001 that has the minimum Dst of -387 nT and obtain two-dimensional maps in pressure and magnetic field of the sheath region and a magnetic cloud behind it. Both the sheath and the magnetic cloud play a role in building the storm strength. Several properties of the magnetic cloud are inferred, including an estimated total magnetic flux of ~6.5×1012 Wb.

  1. Difference in the wind speeds required for initiation versus continuation of sand transport on mars: implications for dunes and dust storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Jasper F

    2010-02-19

    Much of the surface of Mars is covered by dunes, ripples, and other features formed by the blowing of sand by wind, known as saltation. In addition, saltation loads the atmosphere with dust aerosols, which dominate the Martian climate. We show here that saltation can be maintained on Mars by wind speeds an order of magnitude less than required to initiate it. We further show that this hysteresis effect causes saltation to occur for much lower wind speeds than previously thought. These findings have important implications for the formation of dust storms, sand dunes, and ripples on Mars.

  2. Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

    2012-01-01

    The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  3. Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

  4. Thyroid storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyrotoxic storm; Hyperthyroid storm; Accelerated hyperthyroidism; Thyroid crisis; Thyrotoxicosis - thyroid storm ... Thyroid storm occurs due to a major stress such as trauma, heart attack , or infection. In rare ...

  5. Global Pi3 geomagnetic pulsations as a response of large variations in the solar wind and IMF during the magnetic storm of August 5, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleimenova, N. G.; Kozyreva, O. V.

    2014-03-01

    Spatial-temporal and spectral features of ground geomagnetic pulsations in the frequency range of 1-5 mHz at the initial phase of a strong magnetic storm of the 24th cycle of solar activity (August 5-6, 2011, with a Dst-variation in the storm maximum of -110 nT) are analyzed. Large opposite in sign amplitudes of variations in IMF parameters (from -20 to +20 nT) at a high velocity of the solar wind (˜650 km/s) accompanied by intense bursts in solar-wind density (up to ˜50 cm-3) were distinctive feature of interplanetary medium conditions causing the storm. Geomagnetic Pi3 pulsations global in longitude and latitude and in-phase in the middle and equatorial latitudes were found. The onset of pulsation generation was caused by a pulse of dynamic pressure of the solar wind (˜20 nPa), i.e., by a considerable compression of the magnetosphere. The maximum (2-3 mHz) in the amplitude spectrum of near-equatorial pulsations coincided with the maximum of pulsations in the daytime polar cap. After the next jump of the dynamic pressure of the solar wind (˜35 nPa), an additional maximum appeared in the pulsation spectrum in the frequency band of ˜3.5-4.5 mHz. Global pulsations suddenly stopped after a sharp decrease in the solar-wind dynamic pressure and corresponding extension of the magnetosphere. The obtained results are compared with the time dynamics of the position and shape of the plasmapause.

  6. Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Idier

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The English Channel is characterised by strong tidal currents and a wide tidal range, such that their influence on surges is expected to be non-negligible. In order to better assess storm surges in this zone, tide-surge interactions are investigated. A preliminary data analysis on hourly surges indicates some preferential times of occurrence of large storm surges at rising tide, especially in Dunkerque. To examine this further, a numerical modelling approach is chosen, based on the 2DH shallow-water model (MARS. The surges are computed both with and without tide interaction. For the two selected events (the November 2007 North Sea and March 2008 Atlantic storms, it appears that the instantaneous tide-surge interaction is seen to be non-negligible in the eastern half of the English Channel, reaching values of 74 cm (i.e. 50% of the same event maximal storm surge in the Dover Strait for the studied cases. This interaction decreases in westerly direction. In the risk-analysis community in France, extreme water levels have been determined assuming skew surges and tide as independent. The same hydrodynamic model is used to investigate this dependence in the English Channel. Simple computations are performed with the same meteorological forcing, while varying the tidal amplitude, and the skew surge differences DSS are analysed. Skew surges appear to be tide-dependent, with negligible values of DSS (<0.05 m over a large portion of the English Channel, although reaching several tens of centimetres in some locations (e.g. the Isle of Wight and Dover Strait.

  7. Pressure surge attenuator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christie, Alan M.; Snyder, Kurt I.

    1985-01-01

    A pressure surge attenuation system for pipes having a fluted region opposite crushable metal foam. As adapted for nuclear reactor vessels and heads, crushable metal foam is disposed to attenuate pressure surges.

  8. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event: The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosling, J.T.; Asbridge, J.R.; Bame, S.J.; Feldman, W.C.; Zwickl, R.D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Data from the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Max-Planck-Institut fast plasma experiment on Isee 2 have been combined with data from the European Space Agency/Imperial College/Space Research Laboratory low-energy proton experiment on Isee 3 to obtain for the first time an ion velocity distribution function f(v) extending from solar wind energies (-1 keV) to 1.6 MeV during the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event. This study reveals that f(v) of the ESP population is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies out to 1.6 MeV. Emerging smoothly out of the solar wind thermal distribution, the ESP f(v) initially falls with increasing energy as E/sup -2.4/ in the solar wind frame. Above about 40 keV no single power law exponent adequately describes the energy dependence of f(v) in the solar wind frame. Above approx.200 keV in both the spacecraft frame and the solar wind frame, f(v) can be described by an exponential in speed (f(v)proportionale/sup -v/v//sub o/) with v/sub o/ = 1.05 x 10 8 cm s -1 . The ESP event studied (August 27, 1978) was superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. Our observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with the shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient that approx.1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approx.290 eV cm -3

  9. The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

    2017-08-15

    Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Comment on "A statistical comparison of solar wind sources of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms at solar minimum and maximum" by Zhang, J.-C., M. W. Liemohn, J. U. Kozyra, M. F. Thomsen, H. A. Elliott, and J. M. Weygand, JGR, 2006

    OpenAIRE

    Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Yermolaev, M. Yu.; Lodkina, I. G.

    2006-01-01

    Conditions in the solar wind resulting in magnetic storms on the Earth are a subject of long and intensive investigations. Recently Zhang et al. (2006), published a paper, where they used superposed epoch analyses method to study solar wind features during 549 geomagnetic storms. Unfortunately, the used methodical approach has not allowed to improve essentially understanding of relation of magnetic storms with conditions in the solar wind, and first of all for the following reasons: (1) they ...

  11. The influence of solar active region evolution on solar wind streams, coronal hole boundaries and geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gold, R.E.; Dodson-Prince, H.W.; Hedeman, E.R.; Roelof, E.C.

    1982-01-01

    We have studied solar and interplanetary data by identification of the heliographic longitudes of the coronal source regions of high speed solar wind streams and by mapping the velocities measured near earth back to the sun using the approximation of constant radial velocity. Interplay of active regions and solar wind were studied

  12. Coastal Flooding in Florida's Big Bend Region with Application to Sea Level Rise Based on Synthetic Storms Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott C. Hagen Peter Bacopoulos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is examined by comparing maximum envelopes of water against the 0.2% (= 1-in-500-year return-period flooding surface generated as part of revising the Federal Emergency Management Agency¡¦s flood insurance rate maps for Franklin, Wakulla, and Jefferson counties in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region. The analysis condenses the number of storms to a small fraction of the original 159 used in production. The analysis is performed by assessing which synthetic storms contributed to inundation extent (the extent of inundation into the floodplain, coverage (the overall surface area of the inundated floodplain and the spatially variable 0.2% flooding surface. The results are interpreted in terms of storm attributes (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, translation speed, storm heading, and landfall location and the physical processes occurring within the natural system (storms surge and waves; both are contextualized against existing and new hurricane scales. The approach identifies what types of storms and storm attributes lead to what types of inundation, as measured in terms of extent and coverage, in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region and provides a basis in the identification of a select subset of synthetic storms for studying the impact of sea level rise. The sea level rise application provides a clear contrast between a dynamic approach versus that of a static approach.

  13. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... storms was analysed based on historical meteorological data available at Risø DTU and dynamically down-scaled to the Horns Rev 2 wind farm level. This solution was chosen due to the lack of measurements. Moreover, since the project started, there were four events during which Horns Rev 2 wind farm...

  14. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John C; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-11-10

    Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

  15. Changes in forms of available nitrogen and respiration in soil of beech forest as a reaction to a deforestation resulting from wind storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Kučera

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the reaction of soil environment to a violent deforestation resulting from a wind storm. As a material, permanent inventory plot located in Training Forest Enterprise Masaryk Forest Křtiny was selected. The plot represents beech high forest, where soil was sampled from four types of sample plots: (1 maternal forest representing situation before the storm; (2 zone of transition from the maternal forest to the open area; (3 reafforested clearing; (4 natural evolution. From each sample plot type, 6 mixed samples of Ah horizon were analysed to assess N-ammonium (N-NH4+ and N-nitrates (NO3− content and respiration activity. The results show a significant difference between the respiration activities of the particular sample plots, as well as a significant difference in the content of N-ammonium and N-nitrate forms, the maternal forest representing a site of the lowest biological (and respiration activity on the one hand, and, on the other hand, site of high N-ammonium and low N-nitrate content, respectively. From the results, intensive nitrification caused by the deforestation is evident. The results are to be used as a starting level for a long-term observation of reaction of the forest beech ecosystem to deforestation and selected types of forest management.

  16. On the spatial structure and time evolution of shamal winds over the Arabian Sea – a case study through numerical modelling.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    VinodKumar, K.; Seemanth, M.; Vethamony, P.; Aboobacker, V.M.

    /Persian Gulf (Hubert et al., 1983). The shamal winds are strong enough to generate storm surges (El-Sabh and Murty, 1989), oil spills (Murty and El-Sabh, 1985; El-Sabh and Murty, 1988) and dust storms (Perrone, 1979; Walters and Sjoberg, 1988; El.... Simulation of coastal winds along the central west coast of India using the MM5 mesoscale model, Meteorol Atmos Phys 109:91–106, doi 10.1007/s00703-010-0086-8. El‐Sabh MI, Murty TS. 1988. Simulation of the movement and dispersion of oil slicks...

  17. Supplementing Oscat winds with Saral Altika observations for cyclone studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niharika, K.; Usha Sundari, H. S. V.; Prasad, A. V. V.; Kumari, E. V. S. Sita; Dadhwal, V. K.; Ali, M. M.

    2014-11-01

    Accurate prediction of life cycle of cyclone is very critical to the disaster management practices. Since the cyclones originate over the oceans where in situ observations are limited, we have to resort to the remote sensing techniques. Both optical and microwave sensors help studying the cyclones. While scatterometer provide wind vectors, altimeters can give only wind speed. In this paper we present how altimeter measurements can supplement the scatterometer observations in determining the radius of maximum winds (RMW). Sustained maximum winds, indicator for the intensity of the cyclone, are within the eye wall of a cyclone at a distance of RMW. This parameter is also useful in predicting right time of the storm surge. In this paper we used the wind speed estimations from AltiKa, an altimeter operating at Ka band.

  18. Lightning location relative to storm structure in a supercell storm and a multicell storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Peter S.; Macgorman, Donald R.; Rust, W. David; Taylor, William L.; Rasmussen, Lisa Walters

    1987-01-01

    Relationships between lightning location and storm structure are examined for one radar volume scan in each of two mature, severe storms. One of these storms had characteristics of a supercell storm, and the other was a multicell storm. Data were analyzed from dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning-mapping systems. The distributions of VHF impulse sources were compared with radar reflectivity, vertical air velocity, and their respective gradients. In the supercell storm, lightning tended to occur along streamlines above and down-shear of the updraft and reflectivity cores; VHF impulse sources were most concentrated in reflectivities between 30 and 40 dBZ and were distributed uniformly with respect to updraft speed. In the multicell storm, on the other hand, lightning tended to coincide with the vertical reflectivity and updraft core and with the diverging streamlines near the top of the storm. The results suggest that the location of lightning in these severe storms were most directly associated with the wind field structure relative to updraft and reflectivity cores. Since the magnitude and vertical shear of the environmental wind are fundamental in determining the reflectivity and wind field structure of a storm, it is suggested that these environmental parameters are also fundamental in determining lightning location.

  19. Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

    2015-10-26

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. However, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

  20. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  1. Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  2. What is the impact of Harmattan surges on desert dust emission in North Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedler, Stephanie; Kaplan, Michael L.; Knippertz, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Desert dust aerosols have important implications in the Earth system, but their emission amount has a large model uncertainty. Improving the most important meteorological processes for dust-emitting winds helps to reduce this uncertainty. However, the dominant meteorological mechanisms for the large dust emission during spring remain unclear. This time of year is characterized by mobile, long-lived cyclones and Harmattan surges which are capable to uplift dust aerosol for long-range atmospheric transport. Emission near to the centre of mobile, long-lived cyclones are associated with a small mass of dust emission over the northern Sahara in spring, despite their most frequent occurrence in this season. Harmattan surges are proposed to be more efficient in emitting dust aerosol in spring. These events manifest themselves as a postfrontal strengthening of near-surface winds with a continental impact on dust emission. The present study shows the first long-term climatology of dust emission associated with Harmattan surges over North Africa. Using a newly-developed automated identification, Harmattan surges are statistically analysed in 32 years of ERA-Interim re-analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The results show 34 events per year in the annual mean. Spring is herein the most active season with the largest mean number and duration of Harmattan surges, in contrast to summer with virtually no activity. The offline dust emission model by Tegen et al (2002) is used to calculate emissions with ERA-Interim data. Combining these results with the Harmattan surges allows a first quantitative estimate of the associated emission mass. The results highlight that a fraction of 32 % of the total emission is associated with these events, annually and spatially averaged across North Africa. This amount exceeds the annual mean contribution of nocturnal low-level jets to dust emission, which is known as one of the most important drivers for North

  3. Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Archer, Cristina L.; Kempton, Willett

    2014-03-01

    Hurricanes are causing increasing damage to many coastal regions worldwide. Offshore wind turbines can provide substantial clean electricity year-round, but can they also mitigate hurricane damage while avoiding damage to themselves? This study uses an advanced climate-weather computer model that correctly treats the energy extraction of wind turbines to examine this question. It finds that large turbine arrays (300+ GW installed capacity) may diminish peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds by 25-41 m s-1 (56-92 mph) and storm surge by 6-79%. Benefits occur whether turbine arrays are placed immediately upstream of a city or along an expanse of coastline. The reduction in wind speed due to large arrays increases the probability of survival of even present turbine designs. The net cost of turbine arrays (capital plus operation cost less cost reduction from electricity generation and from health, climate, and hurricane damage avoidance) is estimated to be less than today’s fossil fuel electricity generation net cost in these regions and less than the net cost of sea walls used solely to avoid storm surge damage.

  4. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  5. Effects of storm waves on rapid deposition of sediment in the Yangtze Estuary channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Fumin

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent research on short-term topographic change in the Yangtze Estuary channel under storm surge conditions is briefly summarized. The mild-slope, Boussinesq and action balance equations are compared and analyzed. The action balance equation, SWAN, was used as a wave numerical model to forecast strong storm waves in the Yangtze Estuary. The spherical coordinate system and source terms used in the equation are described in this paper. The significant wave height and the wave orbital motion velocity near the bottom of the channel during 20 m/s winds in the EES direction were simulated, and the model was calibrated with observation data of winds and waves generated by Tropical Cyclone 9912. The distribution of critical velocity for incipient motion along the bottom was computed according to the threshold velocity formula for bottom sediment. The mechanism of rapid deposition is analyzed based on the difference between the root-mean-square value of the near-bottom wave orbital motion velocity and the bottom critical tractive velocity. The results show that a large amount of bottom sediments from Hengsha Shoal and Jiuduan Shoal are lifted into the water body when 20 m/s wind is blowing in the EES direction. Some of the sediments may enter the channel with the cross-channel current, causing serious rapid deposition. Finally, the tendency of the storm to induce rapid deposition in the Yangtze Estuary channel zone is analyzed.

  6. Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: a half-century record of storm-generated features from southern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Barras, John A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water.

  7. Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: A half-century record of storm-generated features from Southern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.; Barras, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water. ?? Coastal Education & Research Foundation 2011.

  8. Storm and cloud dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cotton, William R

    1992-01-01

    This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

  9. Positive and negative ionospheric storms occurring during the 15 May 2005 geomagnetic superstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Ildiko; Lovell, Brian C.

    2015-09-01

    This study focuses on the 15 May 2005 geomagnetic superstorm and aims to investigate the global variation of positive and negative storm phases and their development. Observations are provided by a series of global total electron content maps and multi-instrument line plots. Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) simulations are also employed. Results reveal some sunward streaming plumes of storm-enhanced density (SED) over Asia and a well-developed midlatitude trough over North America forming isolated positive and negative storms, respectively. The simultaneous development of positive and negative storms over North America is also shown. Then, some enhanced auroral ionizations maintained by strong equatorward neutral winds appeared in the depleted nighttime ionosphere. Meanwhile, the northern nighttime polar region became significantly depleted as the SED plume plasma could not progress further than the dayside cusp. Oppositely, a polar tongue of ionization (TOI) developed in the daytime southern polar region. According to CTIP simulations, solar heating locally maximized (minimized) over the southern (northern) magnetic pole. Furthermore, strong upward surges of molecular-rich air created O/N2 decreases both in the auroral zone and in the trough region, while some SED-related downward surges produced O/N2 increases. From these results we conclude for the time period studied that (1) composition changes contributed to the formation of positive and negative storms, (2) strengthening polar convection and increasing solar heating of the polar cap supported polar TOI development, and (3) a weaker polar convection and minimized solar heating of the polar cap aided the depletion of polar plasma.

  10. Geomagnetic Storm And Its Effects On The Ionospheric Environment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erratic behaviour of air and marine navigation instrument · Current surges in power lines, causing flickering lights and blackouts that result in damage that attracts colossal amount of money. Seeing that our environment is vulnerable to magnetic storm this paper presents the interplanetary origin of an intense storm and the ...

  11. Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

  12. Spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends in skew surges globally

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert eMawdsley

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Storm surges and the resulting extreme high sea levels are among the most dangerous natural disasters and are responsible for widespread social, economic and environmental consequences. Using a set of 220 tide gauges, this paper investigates the temporal variations in storm surges around the world and the spatial coherence of its variability. We compare results derived from two parameters used to represent storm surge: skew surge and the more traditional, non-tidal residual. We determine the extent of tide-surge interaction, at each study site, and find statistically significant (95% confidence levels of tide-surge interaction at 59% of sites based on tidal level and 81% of sites based on tidal-phase. The tide-surge interaction was strongest in regions of shallow bathymetry such as the North Sea, north Australia and the Malay Peninsula. At most sites the trends in the skew surge time series were similar to those of non-tidal residuals, but where there were large differences in trends, the sites tended to have a large tidal range. Only 13% of sites had a statistically significant trend in skew surge, and of these approximately equal numbers were positive and negative. However, for trends in the non-tidal residual there are significantly more negative trends. We identified 8 regions where there were strong positive correlations in skew surge variability between sites, which meant that a regional index could be created to represent these groups of sites. Despite, strong correlations between some regional skew surge indices, none are significant at the 95% level, however, at the 80% level there was significant positive correlation between the north-west Atlantic - south and the North Sea. Correlations between the regional skew surge indices and climate indices only became significant at the 80% level, where Nińo 4 was positively correlated with the Gulf of Mexico skew surge index and negatively correlated with the east Australia skew surge index

  13. Characterizing wind turbine system response to lightning activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNiff, B.; LaWhite, N. [McNiff Light Industry, Harborside, ME (United States); Muljadi, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-07-01

    A lightning protection research program was instituted by National Renewable Energy Laboratory to minimize lightning damage to wind turbines and to further the understanding of effective damage mitigation techniques. To that end, a test program is under way to observe lightning activity, protection system response, and damage at a wind power plant in the Department of Energy (DOE) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Turbine Verification Program. The authors installed Lightning activated surveillance cameras along with a special storm tracking device to observe the activity in the wind plant area. They instrumented the turbines with lightning and ground current detection devices to log direct and indirect strike activity at each unit. They installed a surge monitor on the utility interface to track incoming activity from the transmission lines. Maintenance logs are used to verify damage and determine downtime and repair costs. Actual strikes to turbines were recorded on video and ancillary devices. The test setup and some results are discussed in this paper.

  14. Intercomparison of the Charnock and COARE bulk wind stress formulations for coastal ocean modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Brown

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The accurate parameterisation of momentum and heat transfer across the air–sea interface is vital for realistic simulation of the atmosphere–ocean system. In most modelling applications accurate representation of the wind stress is required to numerically reproduce surge, coastal ocean circulation, surface waves, turbulence and mixing. Different formulations can be implemented and impact the accuracy of the instantaneous and long-term residual circulation, the surface mixed layer, and the generation of wave-surge conditions. This, in turn, affects predictions of storm impact, sediment pathways, and coastal resilience to climate change. The specific numerical formulation needs careful selection to ensure the accuracy of the simulation. Two wind stress parameterisations widely used in the ocean circulation and the storm surge communities respectively are studied with focus on an application to the NW region of the UK. Model–observation validation is performed at two nearshore and one estuarine ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profiler stations in Liverpool Bay, a hypertidal region of freshwater influence (ROFI with vast intertidal areas. The period of study covers both calm and extreme conditions to test the robustness of the 10 m wind stress component of the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE bulk formulae and the standard Charnock relation. In this coastal application a realistic barotropic–baroclinic simulation of the circulation and surge elevation is set-up, demonstrating greater accuracy occurs when using the Charnock relation, with a constant Charnock coefficient of 0.0185, for surface wind stress during this one month period.

  15. Disturbances in the ionospheric F-region peak heights in the American longitudinal sector during geomagnetic storms of September 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, M. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Ratovsky, K. G.; Goncharenko, L. P.

    2011-10-01

    In this paper, we use the modified GSM TIP model to explore how the thermosphere-ionosphere system in the American longitudinal sector responded to the series of geomagnetic storms on September 9-14, 2005. Comparison of modeling results with experimental data at Millstone Hill, USA (42.6°N, 71.5°W), Ramey, Puerto Rico (18.3°N, 66.8°W) and Jicamarca, Peru (11.9°S, 76.9°W) has shown a good agreement of ionospheric disturbances in the F-region maximum height. We examine in detail the formation mechanisms of these disturbances at different latitudes and describe some of the important physical processes affecting the behavior of the F-region. In addition, we consider the propagation of thermospheric wind surge and the formation of additional layers in the low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms.

  16. The Effect of Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) on Ionosphere and Thermosphere during 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm: Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, J.; Deng, Y.; Zhang, D.; Lu, Y.; Sheng, C.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) are incorporated into the non-hydrostatic Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), revealing the complex effects on neutral dynamics and ion-neutral coupling processes. The intense westward ion stream could enhance the neutral zonal wind within the SAPS channel. Through neutral dynamics the neutrals then divide into two streams, one turns poleward and the other turns equatorward, forming a two-cell pattern in the SAPS-changed wind. The significant Joule heating induced by SAPS also leads to traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD) accompanied by traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID), increasing the total electron content (TEC) by 2-8 TECu in the mid-latitude ionosphere. We investigate the potential causes of the reported poleward wind surge during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. It is confirmed that Coriolis force on the westward zonal wind can contribute the poleward wind during post-SAPS interval. In addition, the simulations imply that the sudden decrease of heating rate within auroral oval could result in a TAD propagating equatorward, which could also be responsible for the sudden poleward wind surge. This study highlights the complicated effects of SAPS on ion-neutral coupling and neutral dynamics.

  17. Space Storm as a Dynamical Phase Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    Fluctuations of the DST index were analyzed for several magnetic storms preceded by more than a week of extremely quiet conditions to establish that there is a rapid and unidirectional change in the Hurst scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. That is, the transition is accompanied by the specific signature of a rapid unidirectional change in the temporal fractal scaling of fluctuations in DST, signaling the formation of a new dynamical phase (or mode) which is considerably more organized than the background state. We compare these results to a model of multifractional Brownian motion and suggest that the relatively sudden change from a less correlated to a more correlated pattern of multiscale fluctuations at storm onset can be characterized in terms of nonequilibrium dynamical phase transitions. Initial results show that a dynamical transition in solar wind VBs is correlated with the storm onset for intense storms, suggesting that the transition observed in DST is of external solar wind origin, rather than internal magnetospheric origin. On the other hand, some results show a dynamical transition in solar wind scaling exponents not matched in DST. As well, we also present results for small storms where there is a strong dynamical transition in DST without a similar changes in the VBs scaling statistics. The results for small storms seem to reduce the importance of the solar wind fluctuations but the evidence for the intense storms seems to point to the solar wind as being responsible for providing the scale free properties in the DST fluctuations.

  18. The Major Cause of Observed Erosion Surge on the Beaches North ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Surges in coastal erosion north of Dar es Salaam city have been documented from 1977 to the early 1980s and around 1997/98. Analysis of the wind data shows that the documented increase in coastal erosion coincided with increased wind speeds. Extreme winds in excess of 10-11 m s-1 were experienced during ...

  19. Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Matthew along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Eric R.; Byrne,, Michael L.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Harden, Stephen L.

    2017-11-02

    IntroductionHurricane Matthew moved adjacent to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The hurricane made landfall once near McClellanville, South Carolina, on October 8, 2016, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of storm-tide sensors at 284 sites along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Matthew. Storm tide, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm.The deployment for Hurricane Matthew was the largest deployment of storm-tide sensors in USGS history and was completed as part of a coordinated Federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act (Public Law 92–288, 42 U.S.C. 5121–5207) under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In total, 543 high-water marks (HWMs) also were collected after Hurricane Matthew, and this was the second largest HWM recovery effort in USGS history after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.During the hurricane, real-time water-level data collected at temporary rapid deployment gages (RDGs) and long-term USGS streamgage stations were relayed immediately for display on the USGS Flood Event Viewer (https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#MatthewOctober2016). These data provided emergency managers and responders with critical information for tracking flood-effected areas and directing assistance to effected communities. Data collected from this hurricane can be used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent, and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

  20. Validation of Delft3D as a Coastal Surge and Inundation Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-07

    Islands (USVI) and Punta Santiago, Puerto Rico (PR) before strengthening and approaching the Bahamas. Irene impacted Acklins/Crooked Island of the...H. Liu and M. Peng, 2008. The effect of wave-current interactions on the storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989...A Navy relocatable tide/surge modeling system POM Princeton Ocean Model PR Puerto Rico RMS Root Mean Square RMSE Root Mean Square Error SRTM

  1. Coastal Flooding Hazards due to storm surges and subsidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    damage potential.Challenges are amplified in some areas due to subsidence from natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Subsidence of even a few mm/y may over time greatly impair the safety against flooding of coastal communities and must be accounted for in order to accomplish the economically most viable...

  2. Assessment of storm surge disaster potential for the Andaman Islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    . ● Local centers must be established for transmitting the forecast, and these stations should be equipped with sat- ellite phones for receiving and transmitting information. Educating the People Educating the local populace can reduce the destruction caused... and evacuation procedures should a warning be issued. Above all, people should be educated not to panic after the tsunami and wait patiently until the issued warning is waved off or wait for the rescue teams to arrive. Protection Strategy ● Construction...

  3. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  4. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  5. Storm layer deposition on the Mississippi Atchafalaya subaqueous delta generated by Hurricane Lili in 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Mead A.; Sheremet, Alexandru; Goñi, Miguel A.; Stone, Gregory W.

    2005-11-01

    The Atchafalaya inner continental shelf, located along the north-central Gulf of Mexico offshore of Louisiana, is an area of rapid mud accumulation associated with the progradation of a subaqueous delta originating from this Mississippi River distributary. In September-October 2002, this region was impacted by two tropical cyclones (Tropical Storm Isidore and Hurricane Lili) separated by only 7 days. Water-column and hydrodynamic records from coastal observation platforms (WAVCIS network) are combined with seabed sampling 4-7 days after passage of Lili, to examine the impact of these events on the Atchafalaya inner shelf. Wind speeds at the CSI-3 platform on the delta (located in 4.5 m of water) peaked at 20 m/s during Isidore, and more than 30 m/s during the closer, and stronger, Lili event. Significant wave heights during Lili peaked at more than 2 m at the CSI-3 platform, coincident with a storm surge of about 2 m. Water-column flow structure during both storms was closely tied to the storm surge (coastal setup-setdown) cycle despite variations in wind direction with storm passage. Flow was onshore throughout the water column during the waxing phase (1.5 days in Lili, 4 days in Isidore), with a rapid (1-2 h) reversal to offshore flow after storm passage (˜12 h waning phase). Flow velocities remained above 1 m/s throughout the ADCP-measured water column (>65 cm above the bottom) for more than 2 days during the Lili event. Sediment cores reveal the presence of a basal erosional surface, hypothesized to represent seabed deflation from the combined resuspension attributable to both storms, overlain by a silty clay storm deposit 2-19 cm thick. Comparison with 7Be seabed profiles and X-radiographs taken at two delta stations (5 m water depth) prior to and following the storm suggests erosional deflation of 3-13 and 7-17 cm occurred at these stations. The overlying, physically stratified storm deposit contains radioisotopic inventories ( 7Be, 234Th, 137Cs, 210Pb) that

  6. Magnetic Storms in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, K.; Siqueira, F.

    2013-05-01

    Magnetic storms result from atypical processes generated in the Sun, the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere and the energization of particles in the magnetosphere. As consequence, magnetic storms may cause problems on radio communication, in satellites, GPS imprecision and induce geomagnetic induced currents that my cause saturation and damage of transformers. Magnetic storms are measured in magnetic observatories, where it is possible to observe large variations in the horizontal magnetic field. These variations are most visible in equatorial or low-latitude magnetograms. In this work, we use low latitude dataset from three magnetic observatories in Brazil: Vassouras (Rio de Janeiro) that presents data since 1915, Tatuoca (Pará) since 1957 and data from a new magnetic observatory that was installed in Pantanal (Brazil) on the 22nd October 2012. Vassouras and Pantanal observatories are in the region of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly. External magnetic field interactions in this region are poorly known due to the lack of magnetic data. Tatuoca observatory is located in another important geomagnetic region: the equatorial electrojet. In this work we present the data processing of the recent geomagnetic time series in Pantanal Observatory and its comparison with Vassouras and Tatuoca observatories in Brazil. We analyse the main characteristics of magnetic storms in these observatories, as the sudden commencement and their duration.

  7. Electrodynamics properties of auroral surges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, R.M.; Vondrak, R.R.

    1990-01-01

    The incoherent scatter radar technique provides an excellent means to study the ionization and electric fields associated with auroral precipitation events. One of the most intense and dynamic auroral events is the so-called surge or breakup aurora that accompanies auroral substorms. For their purposes they define a surge as a transient intensification of auroral precipitation that occurs simultaneously with a pronounced negative bay in the ground magnetometer data. They present data obtained during five such events in 1980 and 1981. Prior to the surge, auroral forms move equatorward, develop ray structure, and intensify. The surge is identified by an apparent poleward motion of the aurora producing aurorally associated ionization that extends over several hundred kilometers in latitude. The presurge auroral forms are embedded in a region of northward electric field. The auroral forms that comprise the surge span a region within which the meridional electric field is small and at times southward. A westward electric field is often but not always present within the surge. The behavior of the westward electric field is significantly different from the north-south field, in that sharp spatial gradients are absent even in very disturbed conditions. Although the westward Hall currents are mostly responsible for the negative bays that accompany the surge, at times the westward Pedersen current sustained by the westward electric field can be important. Sudden variations in the H component of the ground magnetogram can be caused by motions of the aurora or by temporal variations in the fields or conductivities. They present a model that simulates the observed changes in electric field and precipitation that accompany surges. The perturbation in the electric field produced by the surge is simulated by adding negative potential in regions of intense precipitation

  8. Measuring storm tide and high-water marks caused by Hurricane Sandy in New York: Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Amy E.; Behrens, Riley

    2015-01-01

    In response to Hurricane Sandy, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary network of storm-tide sensors from Virginia to Maine. During the storm, real-time water levels were available from tide gages and rapid-deployment gages (RDGs). After the storm, USGS scientists retrieved the storm-tide sensors and RDGs and surveyed high-water marks. These data demonstrate that the timing of peak storm surge relative to astronomical tide was extremely important in southeastern New York. For example, along the south shores of New York City and western Suffolk County, the peak storm surge of 6–9 ft generally coincided with the astronomical high tide, which resulted in substantial coastal flooding. In the Peconic Estuary and northern Nassau County, however, the peak storm surge of 9 ft and nearly 12 ft, respectively, nearly coincided with normal low tide, which helped spare these communities from more severe coastal flooding.

  9. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...... erosion. Little is however known about the impact of major storms and their post-storm coastal recovery on geologic and historic evolution of barrier systems. We apply high-resolution optically stimulated luminescence dating on a barrier system in the Wadden Sea (Denmark) and show that 5 to 8 meters...... of marine sand accumulated in an aggrading-prograding shoal and on a prograding shoreface during and within 3 to 4 decades (“healing phase”) after the most destructive storm documented for the Wadden Sea. Furthermore, we show that the impact of this storm caused large-scale shoreline erosion and barrier...

  10. Difference in the wind speeds required for initiation versus continuation of sand transport on Mars: Implications for dunes and dust storms

    OpenAIRE

    Kok, Jasper F.

    2010-01-01

    Much of the surface of Mars is covered by dunes, ripples, and other features formed by the blowing of sand by wind, known as saltation. In addition, saltation loads the atmosphere with dust aerosols, which dominate the Martian climate. We show here that saltation can be maintained on Mars by wind speeds an order of magnitude less than required to initiate it. We further show that the resulting hysteresis effect causes saltation to occur for much lower wind speeds than previously thought. Thes...

  11. Impact of wind-induced microsites and disturbance severity on tree regeneration patterns: Results from the first post-storm decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floor Vodde; Kalev Jogiste; Jeroen Engelhart; Lee E. Frelich; W. Keith Moser; Alan Sims; Marek Metslaid

    2015-01-01

    In two hemiboreal mixed spruce-hardwood forests in north-east Estonia, we studied (1) which factors affect tree regeneration survival and development during the first post-storm decade and (2) how these effects change in time. Regeneration height and mortality of the tree species black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) J. Gaertn.), birch (Betula pendula Roth., Betula...

  12. ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.

    2009-12-01

    The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future

  13. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  14. Space storms as natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.

  15. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  16. Dependence between sea surge, river flow and precipitation in south and west Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Svensson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Estuaries around Great Britain may be at heightened risk of flooding because of the simultaneous occurrence of extreme sea surge and river flow, both of which may be caused by mid-latitude cyclones. A measure especially suited for extremes was employed to estimate dependence between river flow and sea surge. To assist in the interpretation of why flow-surge dependence occurs in some areas and not in others, the dependence between precipitation and surge and between precipitation and river flow was also studied. Case studies of the meteorological situations leading to high surges and/or river flows were also carried out. The present study concerns catchments draining to the south and west coasts of Great Britain. Statistically significant dependence between river flow and daily maximum sea surge may be found at catchments spread along most of this coastline. However, higher dependence is generally found in catchments in hilly areas with a southerly to westerly aspect. Here, precipitation in south-westerly airflow, which is generally the quadrant of prevailing winds, will be enhanced orographically as the first higher ground is encountered. The sloping catchments may respond quickly to the abundant rainfall and the flow peak may arrive in the estuary on the same day as a large sea surge is produced by the winds and low atmospheric pressure associated with the cyclone. There are three regions where flow-surge dependence is strong: the western part of the English south coast, southern Wales and around the Solway Firth. To reduce the influence of tide-surge interaction on the dependence analysis, the dependence between river flow and daily maximum surge occurring at high tide was estimated. The general pattern of areas with higher dependence is similar to that using the daily maximum surge. The dependence between river flow and daily maximum sea surge is often strongest when surge and flow occur on the same day. The west coast from Wales and

  17. The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

  18. Are inundation limit and maximum extent of sand useful for differentiating tsunamis and storms? An example from sediment transport simulations on the Sendai Plain, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Masashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2018-02-01

    We examined the quantitative difference in the distribution of tsunami and storm deposits based on numerical simulations of inundation and sediment transport due to tsunami and storm events on the Sendai Plain, Japan. The calculated distance from the shoreline inundated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami was smaller than that inundated by storm surges from hypothetical typhoon events. Previous studies have assumed that deposits observed farther inland than the possible inundation limit of storm waves and storm surge were tsunami deposits. However, confirming only the extent of inundation is insufficient to distinguish tsunami and storm deposits, because the inundation limit of storm surges may be farther inland than that of tsunamis in the case of gently sloping coastal topography such as on the Sendai Plain. In other locations, where coastal topography is steep, the maximum inland inundation extent of storm surges may be only several hundred meters, so marine-sourced deposits that are distributed several km inland can be identified as tsunami deposits by default. Over both gentle and steep slopes, another difference between tsunami and storm deposits is the total volume deposited, as flow speed over land during a tsunami is faster than during a storm surge. Therefore, the total deposit volume could also be a useful proxy to differentiate tsunami and storm deposits.

  19. Space storm as a phase transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, J. A.; Dobias, P.

    2007-04-01

    Fluctuations of the SYM-H index were analyzed for several space storms preceded by more than a week of extremely quiet conditions to establish that there was a rapid and unidirectional change in the Hurst scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. That is, the transition was accompanied by the specific signature of a rapid unidirectional change in the temporal fractal scaling of fluctuations in SYM-H, signaling the formation of a new dynamical phase (or mode) which was considerably more organized than the background state. We compare these results to a model of multifractional Brownian motion and suggest that the relatively sudden change from a less correlated to a more correlated pattern of multiscale fluctuations at storm onset can be characterized in terms of nonequilibrium dynamical phase transitions. The results show that a dynamical transition in solar wind VB is correlated with the storm onset for intense storms, suggesting that the dynamical transition observed in SYM-H is of external solar wind origin, rather than internal magnetospheric origin. However, some results showed a dynamical transition in solar wind scaling exponents not matched by similar transitions in SYM-H. In other instances, we observed some small storms where there was a strong dynamical transition in SYM-H without similar changes in the VB scaling statistics, suggesting that changes were due to internal magnetospheric processes. In summary, the results for intense storms points to the solar wind as being responsible for providing the scale free properties in the SYM-H fluctuations but the evidence for small storms clearly limit the importance of the solar wind fluctuations; their interaction is more complex than simple causality.

  20. Cold Surge Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico in a Warmer Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Perez Perez

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Cold surges are a dominant feature of midlatitude tropical interaction. During the North Hemisphere (NH winter, midlatitude waves propagating from the Rocky Mountains into the Gulf of Mexico result in cold surges, also known as Nortes or Tehuantepecers, associated with severe weather over the southern part of Mexico. The magnitude of their intense surface winds, precipitation and drops in surface temperature depends on the characteristics of the midlatitude wave propagating into the tropics. The high spatial resolution (20km X 20km version of the TL959L60-AGC Model of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan is used to examine changes in cold surge activity under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario for the 2080 - 2099 period. The model realistically reproduces the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges for the 1980 - 1989 control period. The effect of changes in baroclinicity, static stability and mean flow over North America suggest that in a warmer climate, increased cold surge activity over the Gulf of Mexico would occur. However, these systems would have shorter wavelength (higher phase speeds and shorter lifespans that could reduce the total amount of winter precipitation. The increased frequency of cold surges over the Gulf of Mexico would be a consequence of weaker baroclinicity and static stability in the lower troposphere over the cold surge genesis region, along with more dominant westerly winds, resulting from ENSO-like conditions in the atmospheric circulations over North America.

  1. Mathematical modeling of tornadoes and squall storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Arsen’yev

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.

  2. Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive

  3. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  4. Statistical Relationship between Sawtooth Oscillations and Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Hun Kim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated a statistical relationship between sawtooth oscillations and geomagnetic storms during 2000-2004. First of all we selected a total of 154 geomagnetic storms based on the Dst index, and distinguished between different drivers such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME and Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR. Also, we identified a total of 48 sawtooth oscillation events based on geosynchronous energetic particle data for the same 2000-2004 period. We found that out of the 154 storms identified, 47 storms indicated the presence of sawtooth oscillations. Also, all but one sawtooth event identified occurred during a geomagnetic storm interval. It was also found that sawtooth oscillation events occur more frequently for storms driven by CME (˜62% than for storms driven by CIR (˜30%. In addition, sawtooth oscillations occurred mainly (˜82% in the main phase of storms for CME-driven storms while they occurred mostly (˜78% during the storm recovery phase for CIR-driven storms. Next we have examined the average characteristics of the Bz component of IMF, and solar wind speed, which were the main components for driving geomagnetic storm. We found that for most of the sawtooth events, the IMF Bz corresponds to --15 to 0 nT and the solar wind speed was in the range of 400˜700 km/s. We found that there was a weak tendency that the number of teeth for a given sawtooth event interval was proportional to the southward IMF Bz magnitude.

  5. Coupling atmospheric and ocean wave models for storm simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting

    is found to have similar spatial patterns as the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) radar backscatter; both show features of the bathymetry. Analysis of the wind field from the non-coupled and WBLM coupled experiments show that the wind-wave coupling is important in strong wind conditions, varying......This thesis studies the wind-wave interactions through the coupling between the atmospheric model and ocean surface wave models. Special attention is put on storm simulations in the North Sea for wind energy applications in the coastal zones. The two aspects, namely storm conditions and coastal...... areas, are challenging for the wind-wave coupling system because: in storm cases, the wave field is constantly modified by the fast varying wind field; in coastal zones, the wave field is strongly influenced by the bathymetry and currents. Both conditions have complex, unsteady sea state varying...

  6. Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan

    2017-04-01

    The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (www.prbo.org/ocof), where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture

  7. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert, E-mail: hondula@virginia.edu [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, PO Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the

  8. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the North

  9. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hondula, David M.; Dolan, Robert

    2010-07-01

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'—such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989—are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the

  10. Simulation of Severe Local Storm by Mesoscale Model MM5 and Validation Using Data from Different Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosenjit Chatterjee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available During premonsoon season (March to May convective developments in various forms are common phenomena over the Gangetic West Bengal, India. In the present work, simulation of wind squall on three different dates has been attempted with the help of mesoscale model MM5. The combination of various physical schemes in MM5 is taken as that found in a previous work done to simulate severe local storms over the Gangetic West Bengal. In the present study the model successfully simulates wind squall showing pressure rise, wind shift, wind surge, temperature drop, and heavy rainfall, in all cases. Convective cloud development and rainfall simulation by the model has been validated by the corresponding product from Doppler Weather Radar located at Kolkata and TRMM satellite product 3B42 (V6, respectively. It is found that the model is capable of capturing heavy rainfall pattern with up to three-hour time gap existing between simulation and observation of peak rainfall occurrence. In all simulations there is spatial as well as temporal shift from observation.

  11. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  12. Importance of post-shock streams and sheath region as drivers of intense magnetospheric storms and high-latitude activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. E. J. Huttunen

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere can be very different depending on the type of solar wind driver. We have determined the solar wind causes for intense magnetic storms (DstDst index was more difficult to model for a sheath region or a post-shock stream driven storm than for a storm caused by a magnetic cloud.

  13. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  14. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  15. Climatology of Neutral vertical winds in the midlatitude thermosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, R.; Kapali, S.; Riccobono, J.; Migliozzi, M. A.; Noto, J.; Brum, C. G. M.; Garcia, R.

    2017-12-01

    More than one thousand measurements of neutral vertical winds, relative to an assumed average of 0 m/s during a nighttime period, have been made at Arecibo Observatory and the Millstone Hill Optical Facility since 2012, using imaging Fabry-Perot interferometers. These instruments, tuned to the 630 nm OI emission, are carefully calibrated for instrumental frequency drift using frequency stabilized lasers, allowing isolation of Doppler motion in the zenith with 1-2 m/s accuracy. As one example of the results, relative vertical winds at Arecibo during quiet geomagnetic conditions near winter solstice 2016, range ±70 m/s and have a one standard deviation statistical variability of ±34 m/s. This compares with a ±53 m/s deviation from the average meridional wind, and a ±56 m/s deviation from the average zonal wind measured during the same period. Vertical neutral wind velocities for all periods range from roughly 30% - 60% of the horizontal velocity domain at Arecibo. At Millstone Hill, the vertical velocities relative to horizontal velocities are similar, but slightly smaller. The midnight temperature maximum at Arecibo is usually correlated with a surge in the upward wind, and vertical wind excursions of more than 80 m/s are common during magnetic storms at both sites. Until this compilation of vertical wind climatology, vertical motions of the neutral atmosphere outside of the auroral zone have generally been assumed to be very small compared to horizontal transport. In fact, excursions from small vertical velocities in the mid-latitude thermosphere near the F2 ionospheric peak are common, and are not isolated events associated with unsettled geomagnetic conditions or other special dynamic conditions.

  16. Coastal storm monitoring in Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicklein, Shaun M.; Bennett, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Coastal communities in Virginia are prone to flooding, particularly during hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal low-pressure systems. These weather systems affect public safety, personal and public property, and valuable infrastructure, such as transportation, water and sewer, and electric-supply networks. Local emergency managers, utility operators, and the public are tasked with making difficult decisions regarding evacuations, road closures, and post-storm recovery efforts as a result of coastal flooding. In coastal Virginia these decisions often are made on the basis of anecdotal knowledge from past events or predictions based on data from monitoring sites located far away from the affected area that may not reflect local conditions. Preventing flood hazards, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, from becoming human disasters requires an understanding of the relative risks that flooding poses to specific communities. The risk to life and property can be very high if decisions about evacuations and road closures are made too late or not at all.

  17. Global ionospheric and thermospheric response to the 5 April 2010 geomagnetic storm : An integrated data-model investigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, G.; Hagan, M.E.; Häusler, K.; Doornbos, E.N.; Bruinsma, S.; Anderson, B.J.; Korth, H.

    2014-01-01

    We present a case study of the 5 April 2010 geomagnetic storm using observations and numerical simulations. The event was driven by a fast-moving coronal mass ejection and despite being a moderate storm with a minimum Dst near ?50 nT, the event exhibited elevated thermospheric density and surges of

  18. Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines that simultaneously reduce global warming and air pollution and provide normal electric power (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, M. Z.; Archer, C. L.; Kempton, W.

    2013-12-01

    Hurricanes cause catastrophic damage to many coastal regions worldwide. This paper examines whether large arrays of offshore wind turbines, used to generate electricity and replace fossil fuels during most of the year, can also tame the destructive power of a hurricane. Results suggest that large turbine arrays may diminish peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds by up to 25-39 m/s (56-88 mph) and storm surge by 12-72%. Benefits occur whether turbine arrays are located immediately upstream of a city or along an expanse of coastline. The reduction in wind speed due to large arrays increases the probability of survival of even currently designed turbines. The net cost of turbine arrays (cost of capital plus operation less cost reduction from electricity generation and from health, climate, and hurricane avoidance) is estimated to be less than today's fossil-fuel electricity generation cost in these regions.

  19. Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

    2016-04-01

    There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

  20. Pacific Northwest Storms Situation Report # 7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2006-12-21

    Despite a small storm that came through the area last night with wind gusts peaking at 45 MPH, progress continues to be made in restoring power to customers who lost power during the December 14-15 storms which hit the Pacific Northwest region. Currently, 95,971 customers remain without power, down from 1.8 million customers. The wind storm which affected the area yesterday was not as bad as previously expected, with the majority of the customer outages in the BC Hydro region, and 3,000 additional customer outages in the Puget Sound Energy service area. The customers without power represent 5 percent of customers in the affected utility service areas of Washington. The majority of customers without power are served by Puget Sound Energy, BC Hydro, and Seattle City Light.

  1. Using Bayesian Network as a tool for coastal storm flood impact prediction at Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is among the fastest evolving areas worldwide. Ever increasing population inhabiting coastal settlements develops often conflicting economic and societal activities. The existing imbalance between the expansion of these activities, on one hand, and the potential to accommodate them in a sustainable manner, on the other, becomes a critical problem. Concurrently, coasts are affected by various hydro-meteorological phenomena such as storm surges, heavy seas, strong winds and flash floods, which intensities and occurrence frequency is likely to increase due to the climate change. This implies elaboration of tools capable of quick prediction of impact of those phenomena on the coast and providing solutions in terms of disaster risk reduction measures. One such tool is Bayesian network. Proposed paper describes the set-up of such network for Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea). It relates near-shore storm conditions to their onshore flood potential and ultimately to relevant impact as relative damage on coastal and manmade environment. Methodology for set-up and training of the Bayesian network was developed within RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). Proposed BN reflects the interaction between boundary conditions, receptors, hazard, and consequences. Storm boundary conditions - maximum significant wave height and peak surge level, were determined on the basis of their historical and projected occurrence. The only hazard considered in this study is flooding characterized by maximum inundation depth. BN was trained with synthetic events created by combining estimated boundary conditions. Flood impact was modeled with the process-based morphodynamical model XBeach. Restaurants, sport and leisure facilities, administrative buildings, and car parks were introduced in the network as receptors. Consequences (impact) are estimated in terms of relative damage caused by given inundation depth. National depth

  2. Offshore Wind Power Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Zeni, Lorenzo

    2012-01-01

    Wind power development scenarios are critical when trying to assess the impact of the demonstration at national and European level. The work described in this report had several objectives. The main objective was to prepare and deliver the proper input necessary for assessing the impact of Demo 4...... – Storm management at national and European level. For that, detailed scenarios for offshore wind power development by 2020 and 2030 were required. The aggregation level that is suitable for the analysis to be done is at wind farm level. Therefore, the scenarios for offshore wind power development offer...... details about the wind farms such as: capacity and coordinates. Since the focus is on the impact of storm fronts passage in Northen Europe, the offshore wind power scenarios were estimated only for the countries at North and Baltic Sea. The sources used are public sources, mentioned in the reference list...

  3. Okla. Tornado Renews Debate on Storm Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nirvi

    2013-01-01

    As soon as the winds that left seven students in Moore, Okla., dead last month had calmed, and more storms blew through the same area less than two weeks later, questions about the safety of schools in a region labeled Tornado Alley rose amid the rubble. While better design of new schools and thorough emergency training and practice may be in…

  4. Tree recovery from ice storm injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin T. Smith

    2015-01-01

    Ice storms are part of nature, particularly in northeastern North America. The combination of air and surface temperatures, precipitation, and wind that result in damaging layers of ice is very specific, occurring infrequently at any given location. Across the region however, damaging ice is formed in fragmented areas every year. Occasionally as in December 2013 and...

  5. Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan R. Fischbach

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Modern joint probability methods for estimating storm surge or flood statistics are based on statistical aggregation of many hydrodynamic simulations that can be computationally expensive. Flood risk assessments that consider changing future conditions due to sea level rise or other drivers often require each storm to be run under a range of uncertain scenarios. Evaluating different flood risk mitigation measures, such as levees and floodwalls, in these future scenarios can further increase the computational cost. This study uses the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA to examine tradeoffs between the accuracy of estimated flood depth exceedances and the number and type of storms used to produce the estimates. Inclusion of lower-intensity, higher-frequency storms significantly reduces bias relative to storm suites with a similar number of storms but only containing high-intensity, lower-frequency storms, even when estimating exceedances at very low-frequency return periods.

  6. Geometric effects of ICMEs on geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, KyungSuk; Lee, Jae-Ok

    2017-04-01

    It has been known that the geomagnetic storm is occurred by the interaction between the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) and the Earth's magnetosphere; especially, the southward Bz component of ICME is thought as the main trigger. In this study, we investigate the relationship between Dst index and solar wind conditions; which are the southward Bz, electric field (VBz), and time integral of electric field as well as ICME parameters derived from toroidal fitting model in order to find what is main factor to the geomagnetic storm. We also inspect locations of Earth in ICMEs to understand the geometric effects of the Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) on the geomagnetic storms. Among 59 CDAW ICME lists, we select 30 IFR events that are available by the toroidal fitting model and classify them into two sub-groups: geomagnetic storms associated with the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) and the compression regions ahead of the MCs (sheath). The main results are as follows: (1) The time integral of electric field has a higher correlation coefficient (cc) with Dst index than the other parameters: cc=0.85 for 25 MC events and cc=0.99 for 5 sheath events. (2) The sheath associated intense storms (Dst ≤-100nT) having usually occur at flank regions of ICMEs while the MC associated intense storms occur regardless of the locations of the Earth in ICMEs. The strength of a geomagnetic storm strongly depends on electric field of IFR and durations of the IFR passages through the Earth.

  7. The influence of the meteorological forcing data on the reconstructions of historical storms in the Black Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Galabov, Vasko; Kortcheva, Anna

    2013-01-01

    The present article is a study of the applicability of different sources of meteorological forcing for the coastal wave and storm surge models, which provide the operational marine forecasts for the coastal early warning systems (EWS) and are used for reconstructions of historical storms. The reconstruction of historical storms is one of the approaches to the natural coastal hazard vulnerability assessment. We evaluate the importance of the input meteorological information for the mentioned t...

  8. Effects of Storms on Coastal Vulnerability Through Revisiting Sites Impacted by Super Storm Sandy Offshore Long Island, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, P.; McHugh, C.; Christensen, B. A.; Yong, W. Y.; Delligatti, M.

    2015-12-01

    Recent models indicate that due to climate change storm activity can intensify. Sea level rise as a result of climate change can lead to storm flooding and coastal damage in low-lying populated areas such as NE, USA. The New York metropolitan area experienced one of the highest storm surges in its history during Hurricane Sandy. The peak storm-tide elevation measured by USGS in Jamaica Bay was about 3.5 m, 1.4 m higher than historical measurements in the same area. As part of a National Science Foundation Rapid Response we surveyed from the R/V Pritchard and sampled the bays and inlets along the southern shore of Long Island after Super Storm Sandy in January 2013 and during June 2014 for assessing the impact of the storm. Short-lived radioisotopes, heavy metals and grain size variability were used to track the path of the storm. In 2013 high concentrations of metals (Pb 184 ppm) were deposited on the landward side of barrier islands and were tracked offshore for10 km. In 2014, we revisited the 2013 locations. The offshore, metal enriched mud layer was seen as small inclusions in sand and not present at the surface suggestive that natural processes are cleansing the sea-floor. Inland the cores showed three facies. From the base upwards: 1) coarse sand with low Pb 99 ppm. Interpreted as either sand transported landwards by the storm or in situ; 2) fine-grained, organic rich sediment with the high Pb 443 ppm and interpreted as seaward transport by the storm; 3) organic rich mud with lower Pb 200 ppm was found in the core tops. Most importantly the sea-floor was colonized by tubeworms suggestive that the environment is returning to normal conditions. These results coupled to other regional studies indicate that the storm was catastrophic and resulted in significant sediment transport. The surge brought sand inland modifying channel and inlet depths but most damaging was the seaward surge that brought contaminants offshore. It appears that the bays and inlets are

  9. NCDC Storm Events Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  10. The dynamics of surge in compression systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    47. Figure 4. Time series (a) and corresponding frequency spectra plot (b) indicating surge. of surge, flow visualisation studies, another setup was fabricated with a piston, cylinder configuration, with which volume of the plenum could be changed continuously. Different lengths of compressor duct were used in the study.

  11. The dynamics of surge in compression systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Even though the experimental work of Grietzer (1976) was quite in conformity with his theory, the parameter B,could ... It was reported by Day (1994) that during experimental work on stall and surge, oscillations at the system natural frequency ... In other words, deep surge cycles are similar to relaxation oscillations exhibited ...

  12. Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2018-04-01

    Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

  13. The Impact of an Extreme Storm Event on the Barrier Beach of the Lefkada Lagoon, NE Ionian Sea (Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. GHIONIS

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The present investigation examines the characteristics of a high energy storm event, that took place on November 9-11, 2007 in the NE Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean, and its impact upon the barrier beach that separates the Lefkada lagoon from the open Ionian Sea. The storm event was caused by NW winds with speeds exceeding 20 m/s (40 knots, which have an annual frequency of occurrence less than 0.015%. This high energy event produced waves with >5 m significant offshore height and 9.5 s period; these waves developed on 10th November during the rapid rise of barometric pressure (~1.4 hPa/hr, which followed the barometric pressure drop from 1020.5 hPa at 06:00 (UTC of 9th November to 1001.7 hPa at 06:00 h (UTC of 10th November. Secondary breaking at the shoreline produced wave heights >1.5 m, associated with a surge of >0.4 m and a run-up capability of >2.4 m. The waves managed to overtop the barrier beach (elevations ~2.5 m, lowering the seaward side of the barrier beach by 10-30 cm and causing a coastline retreat of 0.9 to 2.2 m; these morphological changes correspond volumetrically to a sediment loss of approximately 8 m3/m of coastline length from the sub-aerial part of the beach. During the last three decades a significant change in the frequency of occurrence and direction (from S-SW-W to N-NW-NE of severe storms with wind speeds exceeding 40 knots has been recorded, affecting the sediment transport pattern and contributing to the erosion of the north beaches of Lefkada.

  14. Using forecast information for storm ride-through control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barahona Garzón, Braulio; Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Vincent, Claire Louise

    2013-01-01

    Using probabilistic forecast information in control algorithms can improve the performance of wind farms during periods of extreme winds. This work presents a wind farm supervisor control concept that uses probabilistic forecast information to ride-through a storm with softer ramps of power. Wind...... is illustrated with data from the Horns Rev 1 wind farm, located in the North Sea. To conclude, an overview of ongoing and future research in the Radar@Sea experiment is given. This experiment aims at improving offshore wind power predictability and controllability through the increased use of meteorological...... information, and particularly weather radar images....

  15. Extreme wind estimate for Hornsea wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

    The purpose of this study is to provide estimation of the 50-year winds of 10 min and 1-s gust value at hub height of 100 m, as well as the design parameter shear exponent for the Hornsea offshore wind farm. The turbulence intensity required for estimating the gust value is estimated using two ap....... The greatest sector-wise extreme winds are from west to northwest. Different data, different periods and different methods have provided a range of values of the 50-year wind and accordingly the gust values, as summarized in Table 15.......The purpose of this study is to provide estimation of the 50-year winds of 10 min and 1-s gust value at hub height of 100 m, as well as the design parameter shear exponent for the Hornsea offshore wind farm. The turbulence intensity required for estimating the gust value is estimated using two...... approaches. One is through the measurements from the wind Doppler lidar, WindCube, which implies serious uncertainty, and the other one is through similarity theory for the atmospheric surface layer where the hub height is likely to belong to during strong storms. The turbulence intensity for storm wind...

  16. Estimation of wind speed and wave height during cyclones

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Mandal, S.; AshokKumar, K.

    based on standard Hydromet pressure profile, were used for the hindcast of storm wind fields. For all the cyclones the maximum significant wave height within the storm and its associated spectral peak period was estimated using the Young's model...

  17. Strong winds and waves offshore

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

    2016-01-01

    This report is prepared for Statoil, with the intention to introdu e DTU Wind Energy's ongoing resear h a tivities on o shore extreme wind and wave onditions. The purpose is to share our re ent ndings and to establish possible further ollaboration with Statoil. The fo us of this report is on the ......This report is prepared for Statoil, with the intention to introdu e DTU Wind Energy's ongoing resear h a tivities on o shore extreme wind and wave onditions. The purpose is to share our re ent ndings and to establish possible further ollaboration with Statoil. The fo us of this report...... is on the meteorologi al and o eani onditions related to storm winds and waves over the North Sea. With regard to the o shore wind energy appli ation, the parameters addressed here in lude: extreme wind and extreme waves, storm wind and waves and turbulen e issues for o shore onditions....

  18. Influence of Surge on Extreme Roll Amplitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena; Rognebakke, Olav; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    2008-01-01

    on the position of the wave crest relatively to the ship, the ship will be slowed down when she meets the wave. In this paper attempts are made to accurately account for added resistance and additional thrust, applied in order to maintain the ship speed. The surge equilibrium equation has been longitudinally......Interference of the wave-induced ship surge motion with roll dynamics has been studied. The surge motion has been included in a previously derived hydrodynamic roll prediction model in order to account for the ship speed variation due to the longitudinal incident wave pressure force. Depending...

  19. Extreme value modelling of storm damage in Swedish forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bengtsson

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Forests cover about 56% of the land area in Sweden and forest damage due to strong winds has been a recurring problem. In this paper we analyse recorded storm damage in Swedish forests for the years 1965–2007. During the period 48 individual storm events with a total damage of 164 Mm³ have been reported with the severe storm on 8 to 9 January 2005, as the worst with 70 Mm³ damaged forest. For the analysis, storm damage data has been normalised to account for the increase in total forest volume over the period.

    We show that, within the framework of statistical extreme value theory, a Poisson point process model can be used to describe these storm damage events. Damage data supports a heavy-tailed distribution with great variability in damage for the worst storm events. According to the model, and in view of available data, the return period for a storm with damage in size of the severe storm of January 2005 is approximately 80 years, i.e. a storm with damage of this magnitude will happen, on average, once every eighty years.

    To investigate a possible temporal trend, models with time-dependent parameters have been analysed but give no conclusive evidence of an increasing trend in the normalised storm damage data for the period. Using a non-parametric approach with a kernel based local-likelihood method gives the same result.

  20. Extreme winds and sea-surges in climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, H.W. (Hendrik Willem) van den

    2005-01-01

    This thesis deals with the problem of how to estimate values of meteorological parameters that correspond to return periods that are considerably longer than the length of the observational data sets. The problem is approached by considering the output of weather-and climate models as

  1. Fractals and magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.-W. Wang

    1996-09-01

    Full Text Available Fractal theory is applied in a quantitative analysis of geomagnetic storms. Fractal dimensions (D of the attractor for storm data from the Beijing observatory (40.0°N, 116.2°E using several time intervals are calculated. A maximum value of 1.4 has been obtained for a geomagnetic storm; on quite days the dimension is only slightly larger than 0.5. Data from two storms are analyzed here. Results show that a combination of both D and the magnetic index, k, can perhaps describe the degree of solar disturbance better than the single parameter k.

  2. Elliptical magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Antoniadou, I.; Geranios, A.; Vandas, Marek; Panagopoulou, M.; Zacharopoulou, O.; Malandraki, O.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, 3-4 (2008), s. 492-500 ISSN 0032-0633 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1QS300120506; GA ČR GA205/06/0875 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10030501 Keywords : magnetic clouds * geomagnetic storms * solar wind Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 2.506, year: 2008

  3. Weather radar research at the USA's storm laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doviak, R. J.

    1982-01-01

    Radar research that is directed toward improving storm forecasts and hazard warnings and studying lightning is discussed. The two moderately sensitive Doppler weather radars in central Oklahoma, with their wide dynamic range, have demonstrated the feasibility of mapping wind fields in all weather conditions from the clear skies of quiescent air and disturbed prestorm air near the earth's surface to the optically opaque interior of severe and sometimes tornadic thunderstorms. Observations and analyses of Doppler weather radar data demonstrate that improved warning of severe storm phenomena and improved short-term forecast of storms may be available when Doppler techniques are well integrated into the national network of weather radars. When used in combination with other sensors, it provides an opportunity to learn more about the complex interrelations between the wind, water, and electricity in storms.

  4. Assessing storm erosion hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

  5. From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balasis

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release – manifested in the increase in susceptibility – couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback to persistent (positive feedback behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere.

  6. From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balasis

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release – manifested in the increase in susceptibility – couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback to persistent (positive feedback behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere.

  7. Positive Surge Propagation in Sloping Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Pietro Viero

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A simplified model for the upstream propagation of a positive surge in a sloping, rectangular channel is presented. The model is based on the assumptions of a flat water surface and negligible energy dissipation downstream of the surge, which is generated by the instantaneous closure of a downstream gate. Under these hypotheses, a set of equations that depends only on time accurately describes the surge wave propagation. When the Froude number of the incoming flow is relatively small, an approximate analytical solution is also proposed. The predictive ability of the model is validated by comparing the model results with the results of an experimental investigation and with the results of a numerical model that solves the full shallow water equations.

  8. Radar Reflectivity Derived Rain-storm Characteristics over Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pakdee Chantraket

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The radar data analysis in this study were to extract the radar reflectivity to individual rain-storms and present the study on rain-storm characteristics with their crucial features in northern Thailand over 80 days between April and August 2012. This study classified the two seasonal variations of rain-storm characteristics derived from Thunderstorm Identification and Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN algorithm including 11 variables of storm numbers, duration, volume, mass, sizes, maximum reflectivity and movement in the data set. Additionally, the study also evaluated statistically the relationship between storm characteristics and standard instability indices including lift index (LI and convective available potential energy (CAPE. It can be seen that in summer season had a smaller number of storms but the storms were of longer average duration, greater maximum reflectivity as well as larger areas, volume and mass. Most rain-storms in both summer and rainy seasons were less than 2 hours and the storm altitudes (base to top height were between around 2 and 8 km MSL. The storm velocity was not exceeding 20 km/hr and their movement was southeasterly wind accordingly along the north-south mountain ranges in northern Thailand. Storm area was the most important factor determining the convective weather in the large scale environment during summer season since it was illustrated the strongest correlation in both LI (negative; -0.67 and CAPE (positive; 0.65. Alternatively, the storm duration was the most important variable in wet season, which was exhibited the strongest correlation (0.68 with CAPE as well; moreover, no such strong correlation was found for LI.

  9. Storm-time Large-Scale Birkeland Currents: Salient Dynamics in Grand Challenge Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korth, H.; Anderson, B. J.; Waters, C. L.; Barnes, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) provides continuous global observations of Birkeland currents on a 10 minute cadence. During geomagnetic storms, currents intensify to over 15 MA, are dynamic both in intensity and distribution, and exhibit features not discernible in statistical analyses. For all of the subject grand challenge storms, AMPERE data reveal a number of novel phenomena illustrating the profound dynamics of the storm-time system. Storm-time onsets associated with shock arrivals are often very prompt and lead to dramatic surges in total current from 1 MA to over 5 MA in less than 20 minutes. The current surges occur predominantly on the dayside at high latitudes prior to any ring current or auroral expansions, indicating that neutral density upwelling is often driven independently of ring current or auroral zone intensifications. Rapid reconfigurations of the currents with IMF BY reversals within the sheath structures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are also common. This implies that convection of ionospheric density patches over the polar cap may be quite complex, particularly during the early phase of geomagnetic storms related to the CME sheath passage. The 3 September 2012 storm exhibited intense driving with classic quasi-stable Region 1 and 2 currents spanning 55 to 70 degrees magnetic latitude for over 10 hours at the beginning of the day, corresponding to stable southward IMF prior to shock arrival at noon on that day. The shock arrival and IMF southward intensification led to further expansion of the currents below 50 degrees magnetic latitude and to episodic surges in currents on the nightside, which is unique to storms. The resulting current structure showed multiple large-scale alternations in downward-upward-downward-upward direction that often occurs during intense, sustained driving during strong storms.

  10. Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

    2017-12-01

    Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

  11. Development of wave and surge atlas for the design and protection of coastal bridges in south Louisiana : [tech summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    The failures of highway bridges on the Gulf Coast seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were unprecedented. : In the past four decades, wind waves accompanied by high surges from hurricanes have damaged a number of coastal : bridges alon...

  12. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  13. The dynamics of surge in compression systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In air-compression systems, instabilities occur during operation close to their peak pressure-rise capability. However, the peak efficiency of a compression system lies close to this region of instability. A surge is a violent mode of instability where there is total breakdown of flow in the system and pressure-rise capability is lost ...

  14. Positive feedback stabilization of centrifugal compressor surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, Frank; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; de Jager, Bram; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij

    Stable operation of axial and centrifugal compressors is limited towards low mass flows due to the occurrence of surge. The stable operating region can be enlarged by active control. In this study, we use a control valve which is fully closed in the desired operating point and only opens to

  15. Mathematical modeling of the moderate storm on 28 February 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eroglu, Emre

    2018-04-01

    The sun is an active star with plasma-filled prominences. The sudden ejection of the solar plasma creates storms in the form of bursting or spraying. A magnetospheric storm is a typical phenomenon that lasts 1-3 days and involves all magnetosphere from the earth's ionosphere to the magnetotail. The storms are known by different categorical names such as weak, moderate, strong, intense. One of these is the moderate geomagnetic storm on February 28, 2008, which occurred in the 24th solar cycle. The reason for discussing this storm is that it is the first moderate storm in the 24th solar cycle. In this study, we investigate the storm and entered the 24th solar cycle. The correlation among the parametres has been investigated via statistics. The solar wind parameters and the zonal geomagnetic indices have been analyzed separately and then the interaction with each other has been exhibited. The author has concluded the work with two new nonlinear mathematical models. These explain the storm with 79.1% and 87.5% accuracy.

  16. Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven J; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper examines the three dimensional characteristics of lightning flashes and severe storms observed in Central Florida during 1997-1998. The lightning time history of severe and tornadic storms were captured during the on-going ground validation campaign supporting the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) experiment on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ground validation campaign is a collaborative experiment that began in 1997 and involves scientists at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center, MIT/Lincoln Laboratories, and the NWS Forecast Office at Melbourne, FL. Lightning signatures that may provide potential early warning of severe storms are being evaluated by the forecasters at the NWS/MLB office. Severe storms with extreme flash rates sometimes exceeding 300 per minute and accompanying rapid increases in flash rate prior to the onset of the severe weather (hall, damaging winds, tornadoes) have been reported by Hodanish et al. and Williams et al. (1998-this conference). We examine the co-evolving changes in storm structure (mass, echo top, shear, latent heat release) and kinematics associated with these extreme and rapid flash rate changes over time. The flash frequency and density are compared with the three dimensional radar reflectivity structure of the storm to help interpret the possible mechanisms producing the extreme and rapidly increasing flash rates. For two tornadic storms examined thus far, we find the burst of lightning is associated with the development of upper level rotation in the storm. In one case, the lightning burst follows the formation of a bounded weak echo region (BWER). The flash rates diminish with time as the rotation develops to the ground in conjunction with the decent of the reflectivity core. Our initial findings suggest the dramatic increase of flash rates is associated with a sudden and dramatic increase in storm updraft intensity which we hypothesize is stretching vertical vorticity as well as enhancing the

  17. Response of native and exotic bark beetles to high-energy wind event in the Tian Shan Mountains, Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhamadiev, N.; Lynch, A.; O'Connor, C.; Sagitov, A.; Panyushkina, I. P.

    2012-12-01

    On May 17, 2011, the spruce forest of Yile-Alatausky and Medeo National Parks in southeast Kazakhstan was surged by a high-energy cyclonic storm. Severe blowdown damaged several thousand hectare of Tian Shan spruce forest (Picea schrenkiana), with over 90% of trees killed in extensive areas. Bark beetle populations are increasing rapidly, particularly Ips hauseri, I. typographis, I. sexdentatus, and Pityogenes perfossus (all Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Little is known about the frequency or extent of either large storm events or bark beetle outbreaks in the Tian Shan Mountains, nor about associations between outbreaks of these species and temperature and precipitation regimes. Local managers are concerned that triggering bark beetle outbreaks during current unusually warm, dry conditions will have devastating consequences for the residual forest and forest outside of the blowdown. We characterize the bark beetle population response to the 2011 event to date, and reconstruct the temporal and spatial dynamics of historical disturbance events in the area using dendrochronology. Additionally temperature and precipitation-sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Tian Shan Mountains are analyzed to determine high- and low-frequency variability of climate for the past 200 years. Catastrophic windstorm disturbances may play a crucial role in determining forest structure across the mountains. We hypothesize that the Tian Shan spruce forest could be prone to severe storm winds and subsequent bark beetle outbreaks and never reach an old-growth phase between events.

  18. Blue storms depress growth of shortleaf pine in western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas J. Stevenson; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

    2012-01-01

    Climate and weather, especially storms, have major effects on trees. Fast moving “Alberta Clippers,” or Blue Storms, that produce extreme cold and little precipitation happen each year on the Great Plains in association with Chinook winds in the Northern and Central Rockies. When these storms occur between February 13th and March 10th when shortleaf pines on the...

  19. Auroral precipitating energy during long magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, F. R.; Alves, M. V.; Parks, G. K.; Fillingim, M. O.; Simões Junior, F. J. R.; Costa Junior, E.; Koga, D.

    2017-06-01

    The power energy input carried by precipitating electrons into the auroral zone is an important parameter for understanding the solar wind-magnetosphere energy transfer processes and magnetic storms triggering. Some magnetic storms present a peculiar long recovery phase, lasting for many days or even weeks, which can be associated with the intense and long-duration auroral activity named HILDCAA (High Intensity Long Duration Continuous AE Activity). The auroral energy input during HILDCAAs has been pointed out as an essential key issue, although there have been very few quantitative studies on this topic. In the present work, we have estimated the auroral electron precipitating energy during the events of long (LRP) and short (SRP) storm recovery phase. The energy has been calculated from the images produced by the Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) on board the Polar satellite. In order to obtain accurate energy values, we developed a dayglow estimate method to remove solar contamination from the UVI images, before calculating the energy. We compared the UVI estimate to the Hemispheric Power (HP), to the empirical power obtained from the AE index, and to the solar wind input power. Our results showed that the UVI electron precipitating power for the LRP events presented a quasiperiodic fluctuation, which has been confirmed by the other estimates. We found that the LRP events are a consequence of a directly driven system, where there is no long-term energy storage in the magnetosphere, and the auroral electrojets during these events are directly affected by the electron precipitating power.

  20. Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streby, Henry M.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Buehler, David A.; Andersen, David E.

    2015-01-01

    Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods. Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle). During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail, and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered. However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods. Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms, perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements, is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses, understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

  1. Establishing Design Storm Values from Climate Models in Coastal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dynamic interactions of atmospheric and hydrological processes result in large spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and wind speed in coastal storm events under both current and future climates. This variability can impact the design and sustainability of water infrastructure ...

  2. Characterization of low-temperature pyroclastic surges that occurred in the northeastern Japan arc during the late 19th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujinawa, Akihiko; Ban, Masao; Ohba, Tsukasa; Kontani, Kazuo; Miura, Kotaro

    2008-11-01

    Three eruption events occurring in the central part of the northeastern Japan arc were investigated and compared: Adatara AD1900, Zao AD1895, and Bandai AD1888. Producing low-temperature (LT) pyroclastic surges, these events are characterized by steam eruptions ejecting no juvenile material. These eruptions' well-preserved eruptive deposits and facies facilitated granulometric analyses of the beds, which revealed the transport and deposition mechanisms of LT surges. Combining these results with those of investigations of documents reporting the events, we correlated each eruption to the relevant individual bed and reconstructed the LT surge development sequence. Important findings related to the transport and deposition modes are the following. (1) Bed sets consisting of thin, laminated ash and its overlying thick massive tuff were recognized in the Adatara 1900 proximal deposits. The bed set was probably produced by a strong wind that discharged and propagated quickly from the vent (leading wind) and a gravitationally segregated, highly concentrated flow originated from the eruption column, within a discrete eruption episode. A similar combination might have occurred during the first surge of the Bandai 1888 event. (2) Comparison of the proximal and distal facies for the largest eruption of Adatara 1900 event indicates that the initial turbulence of the eruption cloud decreased rapidly, transforming into a density-stratified surge with a highly concentrated part near the base. Similar surges occurred in the climatic stage of Zao 1895. (3) Bandai 1888 ejecta indicate massive beds deposited preferentially at topographic lows. Co-occurring planar beds showed no topographic affection, as indicated by the topographic blocking of a stratified surge. The observed facies-massive tuffs, crudely stratified tuffs, and thin bedded tuffs-are compatible with those for high-temperature surges. At Bandai, absence of dune bedded tuffs and commonly poorer sorting in the LT surge

  3. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  4. Impacts of a large array of offshore wind farms on precipitation during hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.; Archer, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey brought to the Texas coast possibly the heaviest rain ever recorded in U.S. history, which then caused flooding at unprecedented levels. Previous studies have shown that large arrays of offshore wind farms can extract kinetic energy from a hurricane and thus reduce the wind and storm surge. This study will quantitatively test weather the offshore turbines may also affect precipitation patterns. The Weather Research Forecast model is employed to model Harvey and the offshore wind farms are parameterized as elevated drag and turbulence kinetic energy sources. The turbines (7.8 MW Enercon-126 with rotor diameter D=127 m) are placed along the coast of Texas and Louisiana within 100 km from the shore, where the water depth is below 200 meters. Three spacing between turbines are considered (with the number of turbines in parenthesis): 7D×7D (149,936), 9D×9D (84,339), and 11D×11D (56,226). A fourth case (9D×9D) with a smaller area and thus less turbines (33,363) is added to the simulations to emphasize the impacts of offshore turbines installed specifically to protect the city of Houston, which was flooded heavily during hurricane Harvey. The model is integrated for 24 hours from 00UTC Aug 26th, 2017 to 00UTC Aug 27th, 2017. Model results indicate that the offshore wind farms have a strong impact on the distribution of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, with an obvious decrease onshore, downstream of the wind farms, and an increase in the offshore areas, upstream of or within the wind farms. A sector covering the metro-Houston area is chosen to study the sensitivity of the four different wind farm layouts. The spatial-average 24-hour accumulated precipitation is decreased by 37%, 28%, 20% and 25% respectively for the four cases. Compared with the control case with no wind turbines, increased horizontal wind divergence and lower vertical velocity are found where the precipitation is reduced onshore, whereas increased horizontal wind convergence and

  5. Storm tide monitoring during the blizzard of January 26-28, 2015, in eastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Andrew J.; Verdi, Richard J.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of six storm surge sensors and four barometric pressure sensors along the Atlantic coast in eastern Massachusetts, from Plymouth to Newburyport, before the blizzard of January 26–28, 2015 (Blizzard of January 2015), to record the timing and magnitude of storm tide at select locations where forecasters had predicted the potential for coastal flooding. Additionally, water-level data were recorded and transmitted in near real-time from four permanent USGS tidal stations—three on Cape Cod and one near the mouth of the Merrimack River in Newburyport. The storm surge sensors were deployed at previously established fixed sites outfitted with presurveyed mounting brackets. The mounting brackets were installed in 2014 as part of the USGS Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamic (SWaTH) Network (https://water.usgs.gov/floods/STN/), which was funded through congressional supplemental appropriations for the U.S. Department of the Interior after the devastating landfall of Hurricane Sandy on October 29, 2012 (Simmons and others, 2014). The USGS received this funding to enable better understanding of coastal flooding hazards in the region, to improve preparedness for future coastal storms, and to increase the resilience of coastal cities, infrastructure, and natural systems in the region (Buxton and others, 2013). The USGS established 163 monitoring locations along the New England coast for the SWaTH Network, including 70 sites in Massachusetts.

  6. On extreme geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cid Consuelo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

  7. Evaluation of Deep Learning Representations of Spatial Storm Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagne, D. J., II; Haupt, S. E.; Nychka, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    The spatial structure of a severe thunderstorm and its surrounding environment provide useful information about the potential for severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, hail, and high winds. Statistics computed over the area of a storm or from the pre-storm environment can provide descriptive information but fail to capture structural information. Because the storm environment is a complex, high-dimensional space, identifying methods to encode important spatial storm information in a low-dimensional form should aid analysis and prediction of storms by statistical and machine learning models. Principal component analysis (PCA), a more traditional approach, transforms high-dimensional data into a set of linearly uncorrelated, orthogonal components ordered by the amount of variance explained by each component. The burgeoning field of deep learning offers two potential approaches to this problem. Convolutional Neural Networks are a supervised learning method for transforming spatial data into a hierarchical set of feature maps that correspond with relevant combinations of spatial structures in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are an unsupervised deep learning model that uses two neural networks trained against each other to produce encoded representations of spatial data. These different spatial encoding methods were evaluated on the prediction of severe hail for a large set of storm patches extracted from the NCAR convection-allowing ensemble. Each storm patch contains information about storm structure and the near-storm environment. Logistic regression and random forest models were trained using the PCA and GAN encodings of the storm data and were compared against the predictions from a convolutional neural network. All methods showed skill over climatology at predicting the probability of severe hail. However, the verification scores among the methods were very similar and the predictions were highly correlated. Further evaluations are being

  8. A study on precursors leading to geomagnetic storms using artificial ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    netic storms using SW data as inputs have been developed (Lundstedt and Wintoft 1994), with the ability to estimate the level of geomagnetic distur- bances as measured by the Dst index. The model developed by Lundstedt et al. (2002) consists of a recurrent neural network that requires hourly aver- ages of the solar wind ...

  9. Marine boundary layer characteristics during a cyclonic storm over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of this system and (ii) the lower layer of the atmosphere had become stable during the formative stage of the cyclonic storm. 1. Introduction. A tropical cyclone is the most serious form of nat- ural disasters, both in terms of loss of life and damage to property. Loss of life occurs mostly in coastal areas because the high winds of ...

  10. Storm Warning Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    A Huntsville meteorologist of Baron Services, Inc. has formed a commercial weather advisory service. Weather information is based on data from Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) collected from antennas in Alabama and Tennessee. Bob Baron refines and enhances MSFC's real time display software. Computer data is changed to audio data for radio transmission, received by clients through an antenna and decoded by computer for display. Using his service, clients can monitor the approach of significant storms and schedule operations accordingly. Utilities and emergency management officials are able to plot a storm's path. A recent agreement with two other companies will promote continued development and marketing.

  11. Surge detection on an automotive turbocharger during transient phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligant, M.; Danlos, A.; Podevin, P.; Clenci, A.; Guilain, S.

    2017-10-01

    The surge limit on automotive turbocharger needs to be avoided to prevent operations with pressure and mass flow oscillations. Mild surge is accompanied by noise which is disturbing. Deep surge can cause significant loss of engine power and severe drivability issues. It is necessary to know the stationary limit in order to match a turbocharger with an engine, ensuring enough surge margin. However, this choice does not guarantee surge free operation during transient functioning. In this paper, the surge onset of a compressor while closing a downstream valve is studied. Various tests have been carried out varying the closing time, the position of the initial operating point and the volume of the circuit. The inlet and outlet signals of physical parameters are analyzed with spectral and temporal methods in order to define the instant of the surge occurrence.

  12. A Study of Ionospheric Storm Association with Intense Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpala, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms have been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤100nT) that occurred during solar cycle 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storms were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric condition at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms.

  13. Global distribution of ULF waves during magnetic storms on March 27, 2017 and April 4, 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, N.; Seki, K.; Teramoto, M.; Matsuoka, A.; Higashio, N.; Fok, M. C. H.

    2017-12-01

    The relativistic electron population in the Earth's outer radiation belt is drastically variable, especially during the active condition of the magnetosphere such as magnetic storms. One of the candidate mechanisms to cause the increase or decrease of relativistic electrons is the radial diffusion of the electrons driven by ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves in Pc5 frequency ranges. However, how much ULF Pc5 waves contribute to the evolution of the radiation belt is still an open issue. In particular, previous papers have investigated the radial distribution of ULF Pc5 waves in the inner magnetosphere, but the spatial distribution is not well understood because of the limited number of satellite. In December 2016, the Arase satellite was launched into the inner magnetosphere, and the campaign observations between Arase and ground-based observations are now operated. During the first campaign observation from the end of March to April 2017, two distinct magnetic storms were occurred. The first storm was occurred on March 27, 2017 (Storm 1), which lasted for about six days. On the other hand, the second storm on April 4, 2017 (Storm 2) lasted for about two days. The temporal variation of the dynamic pressure and density of solar wind during each storm is almost similar. However, the solar wind flow speed data shows that Storm 1 is caused by the CIR, while Storm 2 might be caused by the CME. Therefore, background field variations that excite ULF Pc5 waves in the inner magnetosphere can be different between Storm 1 and 2. In addition, the Extremely High-Energy Electron Experiment (XEP) data onboard Arase clearly show the increase of high-energy electrons (400 keV-20 MeV) during the recovery phase of Storm 1, while they did not recover to the pre-storm level during Storm 2. Remarkable difference between two storms is the substorm activities in the recovery phase. The AE index continuously increased in Storm 1, while in Storm 2, it stayed in low level. The global simulation

  14. Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

    2015-07-21

    The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

  15. Two-sample Kalman filter and system error modelling for storm surge forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sumihar, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    Two directions for improving the accuracy of sea level forecast are investigated in this study. The first direction seeks to improve the forecast accuracy of astronomical tide component. Here, a method is applied to analyze and forecast the remaining periodic components of harmonic analysis

  16. Destruction of intertidal bar morphology during a summer storm surge event: Example of positive morphodynamic feedback

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masselink, Gerd; Aagaard, Troels; Kroon, Aart

    2011-01-01

    . The measurements demonstrated an example of positive morphodynamic feedback. Once the bar crest elevation started to decrease because of wave overtopping and sediment transport into the runnel on the rising tide, the bar crest lowered and overwash frequency increased, leading to enhanced crest erosion, even under...... conditions of constant or slowly falling tide conditions. Due to the relatively small spatial scale of slip-face bar systems and the occurrence of positive feedback, they can be destroyed over a single tidal cycle....

  17. Destruction of intertidal bar morphology during a summer storm surge event: Example of positive morphodynamic feedback

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masselink, Gerd; Aagaard, Troels; Kroon, Aart

    2011-01-01

    . The measurements demonstrated an example of positive morphodynamic feedback. Once the bar crest elevation started to decrease because of wave overtopping and sediment transport into the runnel on the rising tide, the bar crest lowered and overwash frequency increased, leading to enhanced crest erosion, even under...

  18. Severe storms forecast systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, M.; Zack, J.

    1980-01-01

    Two research tasks are described: (1) the improvement and enhancement of an existing mesoscale numerical simulation system, and (2) numerical diagnostic studies associated with an individual case of severe storm development (April 10, 1979 in the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma).

  19. Dave Storm esitleb singlit

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    7. märtsil klubis Spirit ja 8. märtsil klubis Terminal presenteerib tallinlane DJ Dave Storm oma uut singlit "Ride", millel teeb laulmisega kaasa ameeriklane Charlie C. Singelplaadi annab peadselt välja Inglise plaadifirma Refunkt

  20. California's Perfect Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, David

    2010-01-01

    The United States today faces an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nowhere is it sharper than in the nation's schools. Last year, California saw a perfect storm of protest in virtually every part of its education system. K-12 teachers built coalitions with parents and students to fight for their jobs and their…

  1. Scale-dependent behavior of the foredune: Implications for barrier island response to storms and sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, Chris; Wernette, Phil; Weymer, Bradley A.

    2018-02-01

    The impact of storm surge on a barrier island tends to be considered from a single cross-shore dimension, dependent on the relative elevations of the storm surge and dune crest. However, the foredune is rarely uniform and can exhibit considerable variation in height and width at a range of length scales. In this study, LiDAR data from barrier islands in Texas and Florida are used to explore how shoreline position and dune morphology vary alongshore, and to determine how this variability is altered or reinforced by storms and post-storm recovery. Wavelet analysis reveals that a power law can approximate historical shoreline change across all scales, but that storm-scale shoreline change ( 10 years) and dune height exhibit similar scale-dependent variations at swash and surf zone scales (red noise at the smallest scales characteristic of diffusive systems, suggesting that it is possible that small-scale variations in dune height can be repaired through alongshore recovery and expansion if there is sufficient time between storms. However, the time required for dune recovery exceeds the time between storms capable of eroding and overwashing the dune. Correlation between historical shoreline retreat and the variance of the dune at swash and surf zone scales suggests that the persistence of the dune is an important control on transgression through island migration or shoreline retreat with relative sea-level rise.

  2. Influence of Northeast Monsoon cold surges on air quality in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashfold, M. J.; Latif, M. T.; Samah, A. A.; Mead, M. I.; Harris, N. R. P.

    2017-10-01

    Ozone (O3) is an important ground-level pollutant. O3 levels and emissions of O3 precursors have increased significantly over recent decades in East Asia and export of this O3 eastward across the Pacific Ocean is well documented. Here we show that East Asian O3 is also transported southward to tropical Southeast (SE) Asia during the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) season (defined as November to February), and that this transport pathway is especially strong during 'cold surges'. Our analysis employs reanalysis data and measurements from surface sites in Peninsular Malaysia, both covering 2003-2012, along with trajectory calculations. Using a cold surge index (northerly winds at 925 hPa averaged over 105-110°E, 5°N) to define sub-seasonal strengthening of the NEM winds, we find the largest changes in a region covering much of the Indochinese Peninsula and surrounding seas. Here, the levels of O3 and another key pollutant, carbon monoxide, calculated by the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis are on average elevated by, respectively, >40% (∼15 ppb) and >60% (∼80 ppb) during cold surges. Further, in the broader region of SE Asia local afternoon exceedances of the World Health Organization's air quality guideline for O3 (100 μg m-3, or ∼50 ppb, averaged over 8 h) largely occur during these cold surges. Day-to-day variations in available O3 observations at surface sites on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and in corresponding parts of the MACC Reanalysis are similar, and are clearly linked to cold surges. However, observed O3 levels are typically ∼10-20 ppb lower than the MACC Reanalysis. We show that these observations are also subject to influence from local urban pollution. In agreement with past work, we find year-to-year variations in cold surge activity related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this does not appear to be the dominant influence of ENSO on atmospheric composition in this region. Overall, our study

  3. On the return period statistics of magnetic storms and their implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, M. P.; Horne, R. B.; Daws, M.; Wilson, P. S.

    2003-04-01

    Magnetic storms are globally coherent non-secular variations of the geomagnetic field that have been identified as a natural environmental hazard with adverse effects on radio communications, satellite operations, electrical power distribution, etc. Thus it is desirable to forecast the occurrence of magnetic storms to mitigate their impact. To this end, we have analysed the probability density function (PDF) of magnetic storm duration, non-storm duration, and waiting time between storm onsets, for two objective definitions of a magnetic storm based on historical precedent. In the first definition, a magnetic storm is defined as a classic extreme event - the interval for which a relevant geomagnetic measure (the -Dst index) is above a given threshold, c. The PDF of storm duration, non-storm duration, and waiting time between storm onsets are all found to be truncated power laws, independent of threshold. Thus, under this definition, magnetic storms have no characteristic duration or recurrence time between ˜ 1 h and ˜ 100 h. In the second definition, we show evidence that the extreme events of the first definition are part of a longer coherent structure in the time series such that a magnetic storm can alternatively be defined as the interval for which the -Dst index is above a given threshold b and the maximum -Dst is above a second, higher threshold c. Over a region of the two-threshold parameter space \\{b, c\\}, the PDF of waiting times between storm onsets in 3-year samples is found to be a random stationary (Poisson) process with a Poisson statistic that varies with the solar cycle, and the PDF of storm durations is peaked at 20-30 h. The analysis raises an interesting general question as to the occurrence properties of abstract extrema (e.g., gale force winds) compared to those of physical extreme events (e.g., hurricanes?). Moreover, an interesting similarity between the occurrence pattern of repeatable magnetic storms and of solar flares is noted.

  4. Towards a record of Holocene tsunami and storms for northern Hawke's Bay, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochran, U.A.; Berryman, K.R.; Mildenhall, D.C.; Hayward, B.W.; Southall, K.; Hollis, C.J.

    2005-01-01

    Eleven sand layers occur within Holocene low-energy estuarine and marginal marine sequences of blue-grey silty clay at two sites on the coastal plain between Wairoa and Mahia Peninsula, northern Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. The sedimentology and fossil assemblages of these layers are consistent with deposition by high-energy influxes to the sites. Three influxes are terrestrial in nature and are thought to represent alluvial flood events. All other sand layers are marine derived and are likely to be the result of storm surges or tsunami. Tsunami inundation is favoured for two sand layers that occur in association with evidence for sudden subsidence at c. 6300 and c. 4800 yr BP. The c. 6300 yr inundation also coincides with previously identified evidence for a tsunami at a site 10 km westwards along the coast. Further investigation is required to distinguish between tsunami and storm surge deposition for the remaining six layers. (author). 50 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Karl Hoeke

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR, particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies.

  6. Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foroutan, Hosein; Pleim, Jonathan E.

    2017-09-01

    Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a single mean value for wind speed per grid box, i.e., not accounting for subgrid wind variability and (2) using convective parametrizations that poorly simulate cold pool outflows. This study aims to improve the simulation of convective dust storms by tackling these two issues. Specifically, we incorporate a probability distribution function for surface wind in each grid box to account for subgrid wind variability due to dry and moist convection. Furthermore, we use lightning assimilation to increase the accuracy of the convective parameterization and simulated cold pool outflows. This updated model framework is used to simulate a massive convective dust storm that hit Phoenix, AZ, on 6 July 2011. The results show that lightning assimilation provides a more realistic simulation of precipitation features, including timing and location, and the resulting cold pool outflows that generated the dust storm. When those results are combined with a dust model that accounts for subgrid wind variability, the prediction of dust uplift and concentrations are considerably improved compared to the default model results. This modeling framework could potentially improve the simulation of convective dust storms in global models, regional climate simulations, and retrospective air quality studies.

  7. Mars atmospheric phenomena during major dust storms, as measured at surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. A.; Henry, R. M.

    1979-01-01

    Meteorological instrumentation aboard the Viking Mars Landers measures wind, temperature, and pressure. Two global dust storms occurred during northern autumn and winter, observed both by the orbiters and by the landers. The meteorological data from the landers has been analyzed for the period just before first storm arrival to just after second storm arrival, with the objectives of defining the meteorological phenomena during the storm period, determining those associated with storm and dust arrival, and evaluating the effects on synoptic conditions and the general circulation. Times of dust arrival over the sites could be defined fairly closely from optical and pressure (solar tide) data, and dust arrival was also accompanied by changes in diurnal temperature range, temperature maxima, and temperature minima. The arrivals of the storms at Viking Lander 1 were accompanied by significant increases in wind speed and pressure. No such changes were observed at Viking Lander 2. It is possible that surface material could have been raised locally at Viking Lander 1. Throughout the period except for the time following the second dust storm the synoptic picture at Viking Lander 2 was one of eastward moving cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. These disappeared following the second storm, a phenomenon which may be related to the storm.

  8. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  9. Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

    2016-01-01

    The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

  10. Optimal Structural Reliability of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Tarp-Johansen, N.J.

    2005-01-01

    structures, humans spent little time in the vicinity of offshore wind turbines and the probability of human injury during storm conditions is small. Further environmental pollution will also in general be small in case of failure. One could therefore argue that the reliability level of offshore wind turbines...

  11. Critical wind speed at which trees break

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virot, E.; Ponomarenko, A.; Dehandschoewercker, É.; Quéré, D.; Clanet, C.

    2016-02-01

    Data from storms suggest that the critical wind speed at which trees break is constant (≃42 m /s ), regardless of tree characteristics. We question the physical origin of this observation both experimentally and theoretically. By combining Hooke's law, Griffith's criterion, and tree allometry, we show that the critical wind speed indeed hardly depends on the height, diameter, and elastic properties of trees.

  12. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  13. Leonid storm research

    CERN Document Server

    Rietmeijer, Frans; Brosch, Noah; Fonda, Mark

    2000-01-01

    This book will appeal to all researchers that have an interest in the current Leonid showers It contains over forty research papers that present some of the first observational results of the November 1999 Leonid meteor storm, the first storm observed by modern observing techniques The book is a first glimpse of the large amount of information obtained during NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign and groundbased campaigns throughout the world It provides an excellent overview on the state of meteor shower research for any professional researcher or amateur meteor observer interested in studies of meteors and meteoroids and their relation to comets, the origin of life on Earth, the satellite impact hazard issue, and upper atmosphere studies of neutral atom chemistry, the formation of meteoric debris, persistent trains, airglow, noctilucent clouds, sprites and elves

  14. Wind energy barometer - EurObserv'ER - February 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-02-01

    The 2014 global wind energy market surged and set a new record after the previous year's slowdown. More than 52 GW of capacity was installed across the world compared to a little less than 37 GW in 2013. Global wind energy took a 41.4% leap in 2014 to culminate in more than 371 GW of installed capacity

  15. Hospital Bioterrorism Planning and Burn Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Brent; Cairns, Charles B.; Rich, Preston B.; Hultman, C. Scott; Charles, Anthony G.; Jones, Samuel W.; Schmits, Grace L.; Skarote, Mary Beth; Holmes, James H.; Cairns, Bruce A.

    2014-01-01

    On the morning of June 9, 2009, an explosion occurred at a manufacturing plant in Garner, North Carolina. By the end of the day, 68 injured patients had been evaluated at the 3 Level I trauma centers and 3 community hospitals in the Raleigh/Durham metro area (3 people who were buried in the structural collapse died at the scene). Approximately 300 employees were present at the time of the explosion, when natural gas being vented during the repair of a hot water heater ignited. The concussion from the explosion led to structural failure in multiple locations and breached additional natural gas, electrical, and ammonia lines that ran overhead in the 1-story concrete industrial plant. Intent is the major difference between this type of accident and a terrorist using an incendiary device to terrorize a targeted population. But while this disaster lacked intent, the response, rescue, and outcomes were improved as a result of bioterrorism preparedness. This article discusses how bioterrorism hospital preparedness planning, with an all-hazards approach, became the basis for coordinated burn surge disaster preparedness. This real-world disaster challenged a variety of systems, hospitals, and healthcare providers to work efficiently and effectively to manage multiple survivors. Burn-injured patients served as a focus for this work. We describe the response, rescue, and resuscitation provided by first responders and first receivers as well as efforts made to develop burn care capabilities and surge capacity. PMID:24527874

  16. Compressor Surge Control Design Using Linear Matrix Inequality Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Uddin, Nur; Gravdahl, Jan Tommy

    2017-01-01

    A novel design for active compressor surge control system (ASCS) using linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is presented and including a case study on piston-actuated active compressor surge control system (PAASCS). The non-linear system dynamics of the PAASCS is transformed into linear parameter varying (LPV) system dynamics. The system parameters are varying as a function of the compressor performance curve slope. A compressor surge stabilization problem is then formulated as a LMI probl...

  17. Modeling storm waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  18. Ice storm `98

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soulard, F.; Trant, D.; Filoso, J.; Van Wesenbeeck, P. [Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Environment Statistics Program

    1998-12-31

    As much as 100 millimeters of freezing rain fell on central and eastern Canada between January 4 to 10, 1998. This study concentrates on Canada`s St. Lawrence River Valley where total precipitation exceeded 73 mm in Kingston, 85 mm in Ottawa and 100 mm in areas south of Montreal. By comparison, the largest previously recorded ice storms left between 30 and 40 mm of ice. A state of emergency was declared for the affected regions. 56 per cent of Quebec`s population and 11 per cent of Ontario`s population were affected by the storm. Over 1000 power transmission towers collapsed and more than 30,000 wooden utility poles were brought down. In Quebec, nearly 1.4 million customers were left without electricity. In Ontario that number was about 230,000. While some manufacturers benefited directly from the storm, including makers of hydro and telephone poles, batteries and specialized electrical equipment, the overall economic losses for Montreal and Ottawa were high as estimates run to $585 million and $114 million, respectively. Almost 5 million sugar maple taps in Quebec and Ontario were located and suffered some damage in the affected areas. Nearly one-quarter (274,000) of all dairy cows were also located in the affected areas. Since in the absence of electricity they could not be milked, many of them suffered from mastitis. Many succumbed, others that survived may never attain their former level of productivity. As of June 1998, over 600,000 insurance claims totaling one billion dollars had been filed by Canadian households and businesses from the area affected by the ice storm.1 fig.

  19. Thermal tides and Martian dust storms: Direct evidence for coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leovy, C.B.; Zurek, R.W.

    1979-01-01

    Observations of surface pressure oscillations at the Viking 1 and Viking 2 lander sites on Mars indicate that the thermally driven global atmospheric tides were closely coupled to the dust content of the Martian atmosphere, especially during northern fall and winter, when two successive global dust storms occurred. The onset of each of these global storms was marked by substantial, nearly simultaneous increases in the dust opacity and in the range of the daily surface pressure variation observed at both lander sites. Although both the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal surface pressure components were amplified at Lander 1 during the onset of a global dust storm, the semidiurnal component was greatly enhanced in relation to the diurnal tide. Semidiurnal wind components were prominent at both lander sites during the height of the global dust storm. We have attempted to interpret these observations using simplified dynamical models. In particular, the semidiurnal wind component can be successfully related to the observed surface pressure variation using a simplified model of a semidiurnally forced Ekman boundary layer. On the other hand, a classical atmospheric tidal model shows that the preferential enhancement of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation at Lander 1 can be produced by a tidal heating distribution which places most of the heating (per unit mass) above 10-km altitude. Furthermore, when a dust storm expands to global scale, it does so rather quickly, and the total atmospheric heating at the peak of the dust storm can represent more than 50% of the available insolation. The Viking observations suggest that a number of mechanisms are important for the generation and decay of these episodic Martian global dust storms

  20. Noise storm coordinated observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elgaroey, Oe.; Tlamicha, A.

    1983-01-01

    The usually accepted bipolar model of noise storm centers is irrelevant for the present observations. An alternative model has been proposed in which the different sources of a noise storm center are located in different flux tubes connecting active regions with their surroundings. Radio emission is observed from the wide, descending branch of the flux tubes, opposite to the flaring site. The relation between the sense of circular polarization of the radio emission and the magnetic polarity, has been more precisely defined. The radiation is in the ordinary mode with respect to the underlying large scale photospheric magnetic polarity. Thus the ''irregular'' polarity of noice storm center ''B'' is explained. As regards center ''C'', one should note that although the observed radio emission is polarized in the ordinary mode with respect to the leading spot of region HR 17653, center ''C'' is not situated in flux tubes originating from the leading part of this region according to the proposed model. Rather, the radio sources are located in the wide and descending part of flux tubes connecting a large, quiet area of south magnetic polarity with the following part of the region HR 17653 (of north magnetic polarity). Thus it is the polarity of the extended area which determines the polarization of the radio emission. The observed polarization should result rather from the emission process than from complicated conditions of propagation for the radio waves

  1. Wind in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon

    2010-01-01

    As an astronomy instructor I am always looking for commonly experienced Earthly phenomena to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote short "TPT" articles on frost and precipitation. The present article is on winds in the solar system. A windy day or storm might…

  2. Wind Speed Perception and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agdas, Duzgun; Webster, Gregory D.; Masters, Forrest J.

    2012-01-01

    Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters. PMID:23226230

  3. Wind speed perception and risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duzgun Agdas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human-wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. METHOD: We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk. The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual-perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. CONCLUSION: These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

  4. Offshore Wind Power Production in Critical Weather Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2012-01-01

    % of the electricity consumption by 2020. In the EU funded project TWENTIES, the demonstration #4 STORM MANAGEMENT aims at demonstrating that adequate coordination mechanisms between offshore wind farms and hydro power capacity available in Norway through an existing HVDC link brings viable solutions to securely...... control the power balance during offshore storm passages. The demonstration will be done on Horns Rev 2 wind farm. In the same project, the impact of a storm front passage over the system security, for the whole Danish system, and with the expected offshore wind power in 2020 will be investigated...... and quantifying the balancing reserve requirements needed in order to keep the security of the power system....

  5. Wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This chapter discusses the role wind energy may have in the energy future of the US. The topics discussed in the chapter include historical aspects of wind energy use, the wind energy resource, wind energy technology including intermediate-size and small wind turbines and intermittency of wind power, public attitudes toward wind power, and environmental, siting and land use issues

  6. Control of the LH surge mechanism in the female pig.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsaesser, F; Parvizi, N; Foxcroft, G R

    1992-12-01

    The functionality of the oestrogen-positive feedback mechanism is the basis for the preovulatory LH surge and thus for regular cyclic activity in the sow. The LH surge mechanism (LH SM) gradually matures as a function of age, immature gilts display delayed, low amplitude LH surges in response to oestradiol benzoate (OB). The maturation of the LH SM apparently is ovarian oestrogen-dependent. Continuous ovarian secretions, probably oestrogens, also appear to be necessary for the final peripubertal maturation of the LH SM and to maintain the functionality of this mechanism in the sexually mature gilt. Superphysiological levels of oestrogens are, however, detrimental to the development of the LH SM. Failure of various infusions of the opioid antagonist naloxone during the surge period to enhance the magnitude of OB-induced LH surges in immature gilts does not support the idea, that central opioidergic systems are of major importance in preventing mature LH surge response at this age. However, opioids could be involved in the termination of the LH surge. Experiments using the opioid agonist morphine and the antagonist naloxone to demonstrate that opioids are involved in the generation of the LH surge in the mature gilt have so far provided equivocal data. Studies using pulsatile infusions of LHRH or of a potent LHRH-agonist during the surge period in OB-treated immature gilts, in which endogenous LHRH release was blocked by methallibure, suggest that oestradiol fails to generate mature LH surges because the gonadotrophs of the immature gilt are unable to respond to enhanced LHRH secretion during the surge period in an adult-like manner. During early lactation the LH SM cannot be activated by OB, while during late lactation a partial recovery of the LH SM occurs. Minor breed differences exist in the functionality of the LH SM during lactation between LW sows and highly fertile Chinese Meishan sows, in which lactational anoestrus is not obligatory.

  7. Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

  8. Relative outflow enhancements during major geomagnetic storms – Cluster observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schillings

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The rate of ion outflow from the polar ionosphere is known to vary by orders of magnitude, depending on the geomagnetic activity. However, the upper limit of the outflow rate during the largest geomagnetic storms is not well constrained due to poor spatial coverage during storm events. In this paper, we analyse six major geomagnetic storms between 2001 and 2004 using Cluster data. The six major storms fulfil the criteria of Dst  < −100 nT or Kp  > 7+. Since the shape of the magnetospheric regions (plasma mantle, lobe and inner magnetosphere are distorted during large magnetic storms, we use both plasma beta (β and ion characteristics to define a spatial box where the upward O+ flux scaled to an ionospheric reference altitude for the extreme event is observed. The relative enhancement of the scaled outflow in the spatial boxes as compared to the data from the full year when the storm occurred is estimated. Only O+ data were used because H+ may have a solar wind origin. The storm time data for most cases showed up as a clearly distinguishable separate peak in the distribution toward the largest fluxes observed. The relative enhancement in the outflow region during storm time is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher compared to less disturbed time. The largest relative scaled outflow enhancement is 83 (7 November 2004 and the highest scaled O+ outflow observed is 2  ×  1014 m−2 s−1 (29 October 2003.

  9. Will oscillating wave surge converters survive tsunamis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O’Brien

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on renewable energy resources, wave power technology is becoming one of the realistic solutions. However, the 2011 tsunami in Japan was a harsh reminder of the ferocity of the ocean. It is known that tsunamis are nearly undetectable in the open ocean but as the wave approaches the shore its energy is compressed, creating large destructive waves. The question posed here is whether an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC could withstand the force of an incoming tsunami. Several tools are used to provide an answer: an analytical 3D model developed within the framework of linear theory, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations and empirical formulas. Numerical results show that run-up and draw-down can be amplified under some circumstances, leading to an OWSC lying on dry ground!

  10. Experimental studies on power transformer model winding provided with MOVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Surge voltage distribution across a HV transformer winding due to appearance of very fast rise time (rise time of order 1 μs transient voltages is highly non-uniform along the length of the winding for initial time instant of occurrence of surge. In order to achieve nearly uniform initial time instant voltage distribution along the length of the HV winding, investigations have been carried out on transformer model winding. By connecting similar type of metal oxide varistors across sections of HV transformer model winding, it is possible to improve initial time instant surge voltage distribution across length of the HV transformer winding. Transformer windings with α values 5.3, 9.5 and 19 have been analyzed. The experimental studies have been carried out using high speed oscilloscope of good accuracy. The initial time instant voltage distribution across sections of winding with MOV remains nearly uniform along length of the winding. Also results of fault diagnostics carried out with and without connection of MOVs across sections of winding are reported.

  11. ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent Afr J Surg

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Patient Saf Surg. 2011;5:27-30. 8. Ajape AA, Obiano SK, Ibrahim A. Enterocutaneous fistula: An usual complication of suprapubic cystostomy. Niger J Surg Res. 2005;7:199–203. 9. Islam S, Barai KP. Suprapubic catheterisation complicated by iatrogenic enterocutaneous fistula. Cases J. 2009;2:9311-9315. 10. Levrant SG ...

  12. A novel parameter estimation method for metal oxide surge arrester ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    45 and 60μs, is 2–4% lower than that of a 8μs current impulse (Martinez & Durbak 2005). In order to reproduce the MO surge arrester dynamic characteristics mentioned previously, a lot of researches have been done on modelling and simulation of MO surge arresters (Martinez. & Durbak 2005). A dynamic model has been ...

  13. A novel parameter estimation method for metal oxide surge arrester ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    with experimental results. Keywords. Metal oxide surge arrester models; PSO; ACO; parameter estimation;. EMTP. 1. Introduction. Metal oxide (MO) surge arresters are widely used as protective devices against switching and lightning over-voltages in power systems. The proper nonlinear voltage-current characteristics,. ∗.

  14. The Brazos River (Texas) Sequence Shows Significant Cooling in the Waning Stages of the Tsunami Surges Caused by the Chicxulub Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smit, J.; Vellekoop, J.

    2013-05-01

    The Brazos river K-Pg sequences are among the best preserved and studied in the world, yet any interpretation remains highly controversial. Most researchers, however, agree that the coarse clastic deposits are the direct result of a train of Chicxulub impact triggered tsunami surges. Alternative interpretations such as low stand deposits or (super) storm deposits lack sedimentological support. The entire impact related deposit starts with a strong ground shaking from the impact-induced earthquake, disintegrating unconsolidated uppermost Maastrichtian muds, and opening 0.5m deep and 5 m long fissures filled with spherule-rich debris. The disintegrated debris has been taken up in a coarse mass-flow, just underlying the first coarse tsunami deposit containing impact spherules from Chicxulub. One to four distinct tsunami surges follow the basal surge, each leaving a graded coarse to medium sand deposit assembled from coarse debris strewn on the local seafloor such as glauconitic pellets, fish-debris and near coastal foraminifers. The medium-grained sand layers are typically cross-bedded in linguoid and linguoid-climbing current-ripple sets, indicating a dominant S to SE seaward directed flow. Such climbing ripple-sets are found in most tsunami deposits in NE Mexico. These climbing ripples indicate an extremely high suspension load, quickly settling on the seafloor in the waning tsunami surge backflow-currents. Occasionally, the climbing ripple directions are reversed, showing the upflow direction of the incoming tsunami surge. Such linguoid climbing ripple sets have often been mistaken for storm-wave induced hummocky cross-bedding (HCS), leading to storm-deposit hypotheses. The final phase of settling out of the tsunami surges, may be re-suspension due to impact-triggered storms in the Gulf, is represented by continuously graded, very fine-grained sand to silt deposit. This is initially a hard 10 cm thick silty lime-mudstone layer with plant debris, grading into drab

  15. Paracas dust storms: Sources, trajectories and associated meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briceño-Zuluaga, F.; Castagna, A.; Rutllant, J. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Caquineau, S.; Sifeddine, A.; Velazco, F.; Gutierrez, D.; Cardich, J.

    2017-09-01

    Dust storms that develop along the Pisco-Ica desert in Southern Peru, locally known as ;Paracas; winds have ecological, health and economic repercussions. Here we identify dust sources through MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery and analyze HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particles Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model trajectories and dispersion patterns, along with concomitant synoptic-scale meteorological conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR). Additionally, surface pressure data from the hourly METeorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) at Arica (18.5°S, 70.3°W) and Pisco (13.7°S, 76.2°W) were used to calculate Alongshore (sea-level) Pressure Gradient (APG) anomalies during Paracas dust storms, their duration and associated wind-speeds and wind directions. This study provides a review on the occurrence and strength of the Paracas dust storms as reported in the Pisco airfield for five-year period and their correspondence with MODIS true-color imagery in terms of dust-emission source areas. Our results show that most of the particle fluxes moving into the Ica-Pisco desert area during Paracas wind events originate over the coastal zone, where strong winds forced by steep APGs develop as the axis of a deep mid-troposphere trough sets in along north-central Chile. Direct relationships between Paracas wind intensity, number of active dust-emission sources and APGs are also documented, although the scarcity of simultaneous METAR/MODIS data for clearly observed MODIS dust plumes prevents any significant statistical inference. Synoptic-scale meteorological composites from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data show that Paracas wind events (steep APGs) are mostly associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic conditions in northern Chile, that can be attributed to cold air advection associated with the incoming trough. Compared to the MODIS images, HYSPLIT outputs were able

  16. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

  17. Hybrid complexity modelling of changes to estuary morphology, hydrodynamics and tidal surge water levels at 10 to 200 year timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, J.; Burningham, H.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme coastal flooding is expected to increase with climate change, especially in estuaries susceptible to tidal surges. Estuary hydrodynamics are well understood and models can predict spatial variation in tide and surge water levels with skill. However, estuary morphological change alters the pathway between sources of flood risk (tides, surges) and receptors (humans, assets, activities) in vulnerable areas. Our ability to predict morphological change at timescales relevant to climate change remains limited, and this hinders quantitative assessment of changing flood risk. Reductionist hydrodynamic and sediment transport models tend to perform poorly at longer timescales and estuary morphodynamics are increasingly modelled using more `synthesist' approaches to capture landform behaviour at 10 to 100+ year timescales. However, non-linear interaction between tides and morphology means that it is useful to retain hydrodynamic complexity to resolve feedbacks between morphological change and tide/surge propagation. This paper presents a new approach to estuary morphological evolution that combines 1D simulation of tidal hydrodynamics with parameterised 2D representation of intertidal sedimentation and erosion under the influence of fetch-limited waves (Estuary Spatial Landscape Evolution Model; ESTEEM). ESTEEM is used in combination with a 2D shallow water equation model (Telemac2D) to simulate changes in 100 to 200-year flood levels that include changes in morphology due to continuing natural sedimentary processes and realignment of flood defences to accommodate sea-level rise. Results for two UK estuaries indicate that hydrodynamics and surge levels change only slightly with present defences in place. Flood defence realignment results in step-changes to the morphology and significant effects on tide and surge water levels. Evolution of the altered morphology tends to counter the hydrodynamic impact, but is sensitive to wind climate, which strongly controls

  18. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joselyn, J.A. (NOAA, Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States))

    1992-03-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs.

  19. Influence of storm characteristics on soil erosion and storm runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnny M. III Grace

    2008-01-01

    Unpaved forest roads can be major sources of sediment from forested watersheds. Storm runoff from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery of sediments and nutrients to stream systems resulting in degraded water quality. The volume and sediment concentrations of stormwater runoff emanating from forest roads can be greatly influenced by storm...

  20. Electromotive force analysis of current transformer during lightning surge inflow using Fourier series expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngsun Kim

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The most common structure used for current transformers (CTs consists of secondary windings around a ferromagnetic core past the primary current being measured. A CT used as a surge protection device (SPD may experience large inrushes of current, like surges. However, when a large current flows into the primary winding, measuring the magnitude of the current is difficult because the ferromagnetic core becomes magnetically saturated. Several approaches to reduce the saturation effect are described in the literature. A Rogowski coil is representative of several devices that measure large currents. It is an electrical device that measures alternating current (AC or high-frequency current. However, such devices are very expensive in application. In addition, the volume of a CT must be increased to measure sufficiently large currents, but for installation spaces that are too small, other methods must be used. To solve this problem, it is necessary to analyze the magnetic field and electromotive force (EMF characteristics when designing a CT. Thus, we proposed an analysis method for the CT under an inrush current using the time-domain finite element method (TDFEM. The input source current of a surge waveform is expanded by a Fourier series to obtain an instantaneous value. An FEM model of the device is derived in a two-dimensional system and coupled with EMF circuits. The time-derivative term in the differential equation is solved in each time step by the finite difference method. It is concluded that the proposed algorithm is useful for analyzing CT characteristics, including the field distribution. Consequently, the proposed algorithm yields a reference for obtaining the effects of design parameters and magnetic materials for special shapes and sizes before the CT is designed and manufactured.

  1. Electromotive force analysis of current transformer during lightning surge inflow using Fourier series expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Youngsun

    2017-05-01

    The most common structure used for current transformers (CTs) consists of secondary windings around a ferromagnetic core past the primary current being measured. A CT used as a surge protection device (SPD) may experience large inrushes of current, like surges. However, when a large current flows into the primary winding, measuring the magnitude of the current is difficult because the ferromagnetic core becomes magnetically saturated. Several approaches to reduce the saturation effect are described in the literature. A Rogowski coil is representative of several devices that measure large currents. It is an electrical device that measures alternating current (AC) or high-frequency current. However, such devices are very expensive in application. In addition, the volume of a CT must be increased to measure sufficiently large currents, but for installation spaces that are too small, other methods must be used. To solve this problem, it is necessary to analyze the magnetic field and electromotive force (EMF) characteristics when designing a CT. Thus, we proposed an analysis method for the CT under an inrush current using the time-domain finite element method (TDFEM). The input source current of a surge waveform is expanded by a Fourier series to obtain an instantaneous value. An FEM model of the device is derived in a two-dimensional system and coupled with EMF circuits. The time-derivative term in the differential equation is solved in each time step by the finite difference method. It is concluded that the proposed algorithm is useful for analyzing CT characteristics, including the field distribution. Consequently, the proposed algorithm yields a reference for obtaining the effects of design parameters and magnetic materials for special shapes and sizes before the CT is designed and manufactured.

  2. Wetland shoreline recession in the Mississippi River Delta from petroleum oiling and cyclonic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangoonwala, Amina; Jones, Cathleen E.; Ramsey, Elijah W.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the relative impact of petroleum spill and storm surge on near-shore wetland loss by quantifying the lateral movement of coastal shores in upper Barataria Bay, Louisiana (USA), between June 2009 and October 2012, a study period that extends from the year prior to the Deepwater Horizon spill to 2.5 years following the spill. We document a distinctly different pattern of shoreline loss in the 2 years following the spill, both from that observed in the year prior to the spill, during which there was no major cyclonic storm, and from change related to Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in August 2012. Shoreline erosion following oiling was far more spatially extensive and included loss in areas protected from wave-induced erosion. We conclude that petroleum exposure can substantially increase shoreline recession particularly in areas protected from storm-induced degradation and disproportionally alters small oil-exposed barrier islands relative to natural erosion.

  3. A Coupled Atmospheric and Wave Modeling System for Storm Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, R.

    2015-01-01

    This study aims at improving the simulation of wind and waves during storms in connection with wind turbine design and operations in coastal areas. For this particular purpose, we investigated the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System which couples the Weather...... to parametrize z0. The results are validated through QuikScat data and point measurements from an open ocean site Ekosk and a coastal, relatively shallow water site Horns Rev. It is found that the modeling system captures in general better strong wind and strong wave characteristics for open ocean condition than...... Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the thirdgeneration ocean wave modelSWAN. This study investigates mainly two issues: spatial resolution and the wind-wave interface parameter roughness length(z0). To study the impact of resolution, the nesting function for both WRF and SWAN is used, with spatial...

  4. Neurosteroids, trigger of the LH surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, John; Micevych, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Recent experiments from our laboratory are consistent with the idea that hypothalamic astrocytes are critical components of the central nervous system (CNS) mediated estrogen positive feedback mechanism. The “astrocrine hypothesis” maintains that ovarian estradiol rapidly increases free cytoplasmic calcium concentrations ([Ca2+]i) that facilitate progesterone synthesis in astrocytes. This hypothalamic neuroprogesterone along with the elevated estrogen from the ovaries allows for the surge release of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) that triggers the pituitary luteinizing hormone (LH) surge. A narrow range of estradiol stimulated progesterone production supports an “off-on-off” mechanism regulating the transition from estrogen negative feedback to estrogen positive feedback, and back again. The rapidity of the [Ca2+]i response and progesterone synthesis support a non-genomic, membrane-initiated signaling mechanism. In hypothalamic astrocytes, membrane-associated estrogen receptors (mERs) signal through transactivation of the metabotropic glutamate receptor type 1a (mGluR1a), implying that astrocytic function is influenced by surrounding glutamatergic nerve terminals. Although other putative mERs, such as mERβ, STX-activated mER-Gαq, and G protein-coupled receptor 30 (GPR30), are present and participate in membrane-mediated signaling, their influence in reproduction is still obscure since female reproduction be it estrogen positive feedback or lordosis behavior requires mERα. The astrocrine hypothesis is also consistent with the well-known sexual dimorphism of estrogen positive feedback. In rodents, only post-pubertal females exhibit this positive feedback. Hypothalamic astrocytes cultured from females, but not males, responded to estradiol by increasing progesterone synthesis. Estrogen autoregulates its own signaling by regulating levels of mERα in the plasma membrane of female astrocytes. In male astrocytes, the estradiol-induced increase in m

  5. Are there optical differences between storm-time substorms and isolated substorms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, R. A.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Frank, L. A.; Sigwarth, J. W.

    2010-05-01

    We have performed an extensive analysis of auroral optical events (substorms) that occurred during the development of the main phase of magnetic storms. Using images from the Earth Camera on the Polar spacecraft (Frank et al., 1995), we compared the optical emission features of substorms occurring during 16 expansion phases of magnetic storms with the features of isolated substorms occurring during non-storm times. The comparison used two techniques, visual inspection and statistical comparisons. The comparisons were based on the common characteristics seen in isolated substorms that were initially identified by Akasofu (1964) and quantified by Gjerloev et al. (2008). We find that when auroral activity does occur during main phase development the characteristics of the aurora are very dissimilar to those of the classical isolated substorm. The primary differences include the lack of a surge/bulge, lack of bifurcation of the aurora, much shorter expansion phases, and greater intensities. Since a surge/bulge and bifurcation of the aurora are characteristics of the existence of a substorm current wedge, a key component of the magnetosphere-ionosphere current system during substorms, the lack of this component would indicate that the classical substorm model does not apply to the storm time magnetosphere-ionosphere current system. Rather several of the analyses suggest that the storm-time substorms are associated more closely with the auroral oval, at least spatially, and, therefore, probably with the plasma sheet dynamics during the main phase development. These results then must call into question the widely held assumption that there is no intrinsic difference between storm-time substorms and classical isolated substorms.

  6. Ice storms and forest impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irland, L C

    2000-11-15

    Ice storms, or icing events, are important meteorological disturbances affecting forests over a surprisingly large portion of the USA. A broad belt extending from east Texas to New England experiences major ice storms at least once a decade; and truly major events occur in the heart of this belt once or twice a century. In the areas most affected, icing events are a factor that shapes stand composition, structure, and condition over wide areas. Impacts of individual storms are highly patchy and variable, and depend on the nature of the storm. Impacts also depend on how (or if) forest managers conduct subsequent salvage cuttings. Important research needs remain to be considered by the forest ecology and meteorology communities. At present, how ice storm frequency and severity may change with future climate change is unknown.

  7. Surge dynamics on Bering Glacier, Alaska, in 2008–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Braun

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A surge cycle of the Bering Glacier system, Alaska, is examined using observations of surface velocity obtained using synthetic aperture radar (SAR offset tracking, and elevation data obtained from the University of Alaska Fairbanks LiDAR altimetry program. After 13 yr of quiescence, the Bering Glacier system began to surge in May 2008 and had two stages of accelerated flow. During the first stage, flow accelerated progressively for at least 10 months and reached peak observed velocities of ~ 7 m d−1. The second stage likely began in 2010. By 2011 velocities exceeded 9 m d−1 or ~ 18 times quiescent velocities. Fast flow continued into July 2011. Surface morphology indicated slowing by fall 2011; however, it is not entirely clear if the surge is yet over. The quiescent phase was characterized by small-scale acceleration events that increased driving stresses up to 70%. When the surge initiated, synchronous acceleration occurred throughout much of the glacier length. Results suggest that downstream propagation of the surge is closely linked to the evolution of the driving stress during the surge, because driving stress appears to be tied to the amount of resistive stress provided by the bed. In contrast, upstream acceleration and upstream surge propagation is not dependent on driving stress evolution.

  8. The Southern Hemisphere and equatorial region ionization response for a 22 September 1999 severe magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yizengaw

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric storm evolution process was monitored during the 22 September 1999 magnetic storm over the Australian eastern region, through measurements of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC from seven Global Positioning Systems (GPS stations. The spatial and temporal variations of the ionosphere were analysed as a time series of TEC maps. Results of our analysis show that the main ionospheric effect of the storm under consideration are: the long lasting negative storm effect during a magnetic storm at mid-latitude regions; the strong, positive disturbances during the storm's main phase at auroral latitude regions; the effects of storm-induced equatorward directed wind causing a positive disturbance at high and mid-latitude stations with appropriate time shift between higher and lower latitudes; daytime poleward movement of depleted plasma that causes temporary suppression of the equatorial anomaly during the start of the storm recovery phase; and prompt penetration of eastward electric fields to ionospheric altitudes and the production of nearly simultaneous TEC enhancement at all latitudes. In general, we found dominant negative disturbance over mid and high latitudes and positive disturbance at low latitudes. A comparison of storm-time behaviour of TEC determined from GPS satellites, and foF2 derived from ionosondes at a range of latitudes, showed reasonable agreement between the two independent measurements.

  9. The Southern Hemisphere and equatorial region ionization response for a 22 September 1999 severe magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yizengaw

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric storm evolution process was monitored during the 22 September 1999 magnetic storm over the Australian eastern region, through measurements of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC from seven Global Positioning Systems (GPS stations. The spatial and temporal variations of the ionosphere were analysed as a time series of TEC maps. Results of our analysis show that the main ionospheric effect of the storm under consideration are: the long lasting negative storm effect during a magnetic storm at mid-latitude regions; the strong, positive disturbances during the storm's main phase at auroral latitude regions; the effects of storm-induced equatorward directed wind causing a positive disturbance at high and mid-latitude stations with appropriate time shift between higher and lower latitudes; daytime poleward movement of depleted plasma that causes temporary suppression of the equatorial anomaly during the start of the storm recovery phase; and prompt penetration of eastward electric fields to ionospheric altitudes and the production of nearly simultaneous TEC enhancement at all latitudes. In general, we found dominant negative disturbance over mid and high latitudes and positive disturbance at low latitudes. A comparison of storm-time behaviour of TEC determined from GPS satellites, and foF2 derived from ionosondes at a range of latitudes, showed reasonable agreement between the two independent measurements.

  10. Measuring and building resilience after big storms: Lessons learned from Super-Storm Sandy for the Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdoch, P. S.; Penn, K. M.; Taylor, S. M.; Subramanian, B.; Bennett, R.

    2017-12-01

    As we recover from recent large storms, we need information to support increased environmental and socio-economic resilience of the Nation's coasts. Defining baseline conditions, tracking effects of mitigation actions, and measuring the uncertainty of resilience to future disturbance are essential so that the best management practices can be determined. The US Dept. of the Interior invested over $787 million dollars in 2013 to understand and mitigate coastal storm vulnerabilities and enhance resilience of the Northeast coast following Super-Storm Sandy. Several lessons-learned from that investment have direct application to mitigation and restoration needs following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. New models of inundation, overwash, and erosion, developed during the Sandy projects have already been applied to coastlines before and after these recent storms. Results from wetland, beach, back-bay, estuary, and built-environment projects improved models of inundation and erosion from surge and waves. Tests of nature-based infrastructure for mitigating coastal disturbance yielded new concepts for best-practices. Ecological and socio-economic measurements established for detecting disturbance and tracking recovery provide baseline data critical to early detection of vulnerabilities. The Sandy lessons and preliminary applications on the recent storms could help define best-resilience practices before more costly mitigation or restoration efforts are required.

  11. China's electric car surge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yunshi; Sperling, Daniel; Tal, Gil; Fang, Haifeng

    2017-01-01

    China's plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales, comprising both battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, surged 343% in 2015, and are expected to reach 2 million by 2020. Two factors are crucial to this sudden transformation: 1) massive central and local government subsidies, and 2) huge non-monetary incentives via exemptions from restrictions on vehicle ownership in Beijing, Shanghai, and elsewhere. Innovative business models and greatly expanded vehicle offerings, especially by local Chinese manufacturers, also helped accelerate PEV sales and infrastructure deployment. However, continued sales growth is threatened by persistent regional protectionism, the unsustainability of these large subsidies, and widely reported cheating by some automakers. We suggest some innovative policies that China might pioneer and transfer elsewhere. - Highlights: • The rapid growth was a result of massive central and local government subsidies. • Exemptions from restrictions on vehicle ownership play even more important role. • A comparative case study of Beijing and Shanghai. • Persistent regional protectionism impedes the development of China's PEV industry. • Focusing on the use of PEVs is a better way to achieve eVMT.

  12. Modelling storm development and the impact when introducing waves, sea spray and heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lichuan; Rutgersson, Anna; Sahlée, Erik

    2015-04-01

    In high wind speed conditions, sea spray generated due to intensity breaking waves have big influence on the wind stress and heat fluxes. Measurements show that drag coefficient will decrease in high wind speed. Sea spray generation function (SSGF), an important term of wind stress parameterization in high wind speed, usually treated as a function of wind speed/friction velocity. In this study, we introduce a wave state depended SSGG and wave age depended Charnock number into a high wind speed wind stress parameterization (Kudryavtsev et al., 2011; 2012). The proposed wind stress parameterization and sea spray heat fluxes parameterization from Andreas et al., (2014) were applied to an atmosphere-wave coupled model to test on four storm cases. Compared with measurements from the FINO1 platform in the North Sea, the new wind stress parameterization can reduce the forecast errors of wind in high wind speed range, but not in low wind speed. Only sea spray impacted on wind stress, it will intensify the storms (minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed) and lower the air temperature (increase the errors). Only the sea spray impacted on the heat fluxes, it can improve the model performance on storm tracks and the air temperature, but not change much in the storm intensity. If both of sea spray impacted on the wind stress and heat fluxes are taken into account, it has the best performance in all the experiment for minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed and air temperature. Andreas, E. L., Mahrt, L., and Vickers, D. (2014). An improved bulk air-sea surface flux algorithm, including spray-mediated transfer. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Kudryavtsev, V. and Makin, V. (2011). Impact of ocean spray on the dynamics of the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Boundary-layer meteorology, 140(3):383-410. Kudryavtsev, V., Makin, V., and S, Z. (2012). On the sea-surface drag and heat/mass transfer at strong winds. Technical report, Royal

  13. Pressure-surge mitigation methods in fluid-conveying piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Y.W.; Youngdahl, C.K.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1991-01-01

    Pressure surges in the heat transport system of nuclear reactor plants can affect the safety and reliability of the plants. Hence the pressure surges must be considered in the design, operation, and maintenance of the plants in order to minimize their occurrence and impacts. The objectives of this paper are to review various methods to control or mitigate the pressure surges, to analyze these methods to gain understanding of the mitigation mechanisms, and examine applicability of the methods to nuclear power plants. 6 refs., 13 figs

  14. Magnetic storms on Mars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2011-01-01

    Based on data from the Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer we examine periods of significantly enhanced magnetic disturbances in the martian space environment. Using almost seven years of observations during the maximum and early declining phase of the previous solar cycle the occurrence pattern...... and typical time profile of such periods is investigated and compared to solar wind measurements at Earth. Typical durations of the events are 20–40h, and there is a tendency for large events to last longer, but a large spread in duration and intensity are found. The large and medium intensity events at Mars...... field disturbance at Mars is solar wind dynamic pressure variations associated with the eccentricity of the martian orbit around the Sun....

  15. Flood protection. Storm flood water level in coast and estuary regions; Hochwasserschutz. Sturmflutwasserstand und Wellenauflauf im Kuesten- und Aestuarbereich

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, J.; Frank, T.; Mudersbach, C. [Siegen Univ. (Germany). Forschungsinst. Wasser und Umwelt; Meiswinkel, R. [E.ON Kernkraft GmbH, Hannover (Germany); Barg, G.

    2008-07-01

    According to the German regulatory code KTA 2207 for Npp sites in coastal regions and at rivers with tide the water level assessment threshold is defined as storm flood level with exceedance probability of 10E-4/a. Dependent on the site it has to be checked whether other relevant factors for flood prevention have to be considered, for instance ice drift, dyke overflow or break. Three parameters are of importance for the assessment of the geometric design of dykes in coastal or estuary regions: the water level assessment threshold, wave surge and an adequate safety margin. The combination of storm flood and earthquakes has to be considered.

  16. Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pantillon

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2–4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

  17. Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

    2017-10-01

    New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

  18. Wind Turbines Adaptation to the Variability of the Wind Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulianov, Yuriy; Martynenko, Gennadii; Misaylov, Vitaliy; Soliannikova, Iuliia

    2010-05-01

    WIND TURBINES ADAPTATION TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE WIND FIELD The subject of our scientific research is wind power turbines (WPT) with the horizontal axis which were now common in the world. Efficient wind turbines work is largely determined by non-stationarity of the wind field, expressed in its gustiness, the presence of vertical and horizontal shifts of wind speed and direction. At critical values of the wind parameters WPT has aerodynamic and mechanical overload, leading to breakdowns, premature wear and reduce the life of the wind turbine. To prevent accidents at the peak values of wind speed it is used the regulatory system of windwheels. WPT control systems provide a process orientation of the wind turbine rotor axis in the line of the mean wind. Wind turbines are also equipped with braking device used to protect against breakdowns when a significant increase in the wind. In general, all these methods of regulation are not always effective. Thus, in practice there may be situations when the wind speed is many times greater than the stated limit. For example, if there are microbursts in the atmospheric boundary layer, low-level wind shears caused by its gust front, storms, etc. It is required for a wind power turbine adaptation to intensive short-term wind impulses and considerable vertical wind shifts that the data about them shall be obtained ahead of time. To do this it is necessary to have the information on the real structure of the wind field in the area of the blade sweep for the minimum range against the wind that is determined by the mean speed and the system action time. The implementation of acoustic and laser traditional wind sounding systems is limited by ambient acoustic noise, by heavy rain, snowfall and by fog. There are free of these disadvantages the inclined radioacoustic sounding (IRASS) technique which works for a system of remote detection and control of wind gusts. IRASS technique is realized as low-potential Doppler pulse radar

  19. A Review of Current Issues in State-of-Art of Wind Farm Overvoltage Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranko Goić

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper elaborates on several important outstanding issues in the state-of-art of overvoltage protection selection for modern wind farms. The lack of experience with this still-new technology, together with the inherent complexity of wind farm electrical systems, entails several unresolved issues pertinent to the topic of overvoltage protection, particularly in relation to lightning-initiated surges. Firstly, several aspects of the wind turbine lightning incidence, along with the issues related to the selection of lightning current parameters (pertinent to the wind farm overvoltage protection, are addressed in this paper. Secondly, several issues in the state-of-art models of the wind farm electrical systems—for the lightning surge analysis—are addressed and discussed. Here, a well-known ElectroMagnetic Transients Program (EMTP software package is often employed, with all of its benefits and some limitations. Thirdly, the metal-oxide surge arrester energy capability and the issues related to the selection of the surge arrester rated energy—in relation to the direct lightning strikes to wind turbines—is addressed. Finally, some general considerations concerning the overvoltage protection selection for wind farm projects, particularly regarding the installation of the metal-oxide surge arresters, are provided as well.

  20. [Early morning hypertension/morning blood pressure surge].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshide, Satoshi; Kario, Kazuomi

    2014-08-01

    Early morning hypertension and morning blood pressure surge have been reported to be associated with organ damage and cardiovascular events. The concept of early morning hypertension and morning blood pressure surge is sometimes discussed in the same arena, and provides partly overlapping information concerning their mechanism or risk profile. However, what is different between groups is as follows. First, early morning hypertension is blood pressure level, while morning blood pressure surge is variability of blood pressure. Second, the intervention of early morning hypertension is available, which lead to prevent the progression of organ damage or cardiovascular event, but there is not enough evidence whether the reduction of morning blood pressure surge would reduce cardiovascular outcome.

  1. Active surge control for variable speed axial compressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu; Yang, Chunjie; Wu, Ping; Song, Zhihuan

    2014-09-01

    This paper discusses active surge control in variable speed axial compressors. A compression system equipped with a variable area throttle is investigated. Based on a given compressor model, a fuzzy logic controller is designed for surge control and a proportional speed controller is used for speed control. The fuzzy controller uses measurements of the change of pressure rise as well as the change of mass flow to determine the throttle opening. The presented approach does not require the knowledge of system equilibrium or the surge line. Numerical simulations show promising results. The proposed fuzzy logic controller performs better than a backstepping controller and is capable to suppress surge at different operating points. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Experimental Study on Noise Characteristic of Centrifugal Compressor Surge

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Qichao; Zhao, Yuanyang; SHU, Yue; LI, Xiaosa; LI, Liansheng

    2016-01-01

    The centrifugal air compressor test rig is was designed and established. The experimental study was carried out on the surge characteristics of centrifugal compressor including the pressure in the pipe and the noise characteristics under different rotation speed. The tested results showed that both the suction pressure and discharge pressure fluctuation increase under surge condition and the amplitude of discharge pressure fluctuation is significantly higher than that of suction pressure. In ...

  3. Modelling of Ice Storms and their Impact on a part of the Swedish Transmission Network

    OpenAIRE

    Ahlberg, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    In this master thesis a weather model to simulate an ice storm is developed. Precipitation, wind and movement are modelled by mathematical functions to create a realistic model. The weather model is used to calculate wind and ice loads on power lines. Two dierent models for the ice accretion on the power lines are used and compared. Data from two storms in Sweden in 1995 and 1999 are studied. In the simulations, the precipitation is assumed to fall as freezing rain instead of snow. The ice an...

  4. The Role of Jet Adjustment Processes in Subtropical Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

    2017-11-01

    Meso-α/β/γ scale atmospheric processes of jet dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodélé Depression dust storms are analyzed with observations and high-resolution modeling. The analysis of the role of jet adjustment processes in each dust storm shows similarities as follows: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) cross mountain flows that produced a leeside inversion layer prior to the large-scale dust storm, (3) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the midtropospheric jet streak in the lee of the respective mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (4) dust storm formation accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-β scale adjustment process, (5) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and (6) emission and uplift of mineral dust in the lee of nearby mountains. The thermally forced meso-γ scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, may have been the cause of numerous observed dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and TKE generation. This study points to the importance of meso-β to meso-γ scale adjustment processes at low atmospheric levels due to an imbalance within the exit region of an upper level jet streak for the formation of severe dust storms. The low level TKE, which is one of the prerequisites to deflate the dust from the surface, cannot be detected with the low resolution data sets; so our results show that a high spatial resolution is required for better representing TKE as a proxy for dust emission.

  5. Regarding Electrified Martian Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, W. M.

    2017-06-01

    We examine the dynamic competition between dust devil/storm charging currents and dissipating atmospheric currents. A question: Can high-current lightning be a dissipation product of this competition? Most likely not but there are exceptions.

  6. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  7. Global differences between moderate and large storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valek, P. W.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. C. H.; Goldstein, J.; Keesee, A. M.; McComas, D. J.; Perez, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    The current solar maximum has been relatively quiet compared to previous solar cycles. Whereas numerous moderate storms (Dst minutes). Here we will present the differences seen between moderate storms and the two large storms of 17 March 2015 (Dst 30 keV) and high (30 to > 100 keV) energy ranges, and describe how the inner magnetosphere evolves during storm time.

  8. Magnetic storms and induction hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Balch, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earth's electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Québec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [Bolduc, 2002].

  9. Wind Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez D, J.M.

    1998-01-01

    The general theory of the wind energy conversion systems is presented. The availability of the wind resource in Colombia and the ranges of the speed of the wind in those which is possible economically to use the wind turbines are described. It is continued with a description of the principal technological characteristics of the wind turbines and are split into wind power and wind-powered pumps; and its use in large quantities grouped in wind farms or in autonomous systems. Finally, its costs and its environmental impact are presented

  10. Storm-damaged saline-contaminated boreholes as a means of aquifer contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, D.A.; Van Biersel, T. P.; Milner, L.R.

    2008-01-01

    Saline water from a storm surge can flow down storm-damaged submerged water supply wells and contaminate boreholes and surrounding aquifers. Using data from conventional purging techniques, aquifer test response analysis, chemical analysis, and regression analysis of chloride/silica (Cl/Si) ratio, equations were derived to estimate the volume of saline water intrusion into a well and a porous media aquifer, the volume of water needed to purge a well shortly following an intrusion event, and the volume of water needed after delay of several or more months, when the saline plume has expanded. Purging time required is a function of volume of water and pumping rate. The study site well is located within a shoreline community of Lake Pontchartrain, St. Tammany Parish, in southeastern Louisiana, United States, which was impacted by two hurricane storm surges and had neither been rehabilitated nor chlorinated prior to our study. Chemical analysis of water samples in fall 2005 and purging of well and aquifer in June 6, 2006, indicated saline water had intruded the well in 2005 and the well and aquifer in 2006. The volume of water needed to purge the study well was approximately 200 casing volumes, which is significantly greater than conventionally used during collection of water samples for water quality analyses. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  11. Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Geomagnetic Storm Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda Neergaard

    2013-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.

  12. Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Lane

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

  13. Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: a review and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

  14. Trajectory Calculation as Forecasting Support Tool for Dust Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sultan Al-Yahyai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In arid and semiarid regions, dust storms are common during windy seasons. Strong wind can blow loose sand from the dry surface. The rising sand and dust is then transported to other places depending on the wind conditions (speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere. Considering dust as a moving object in space and time, trajectory calculation then can be used to determine the path it will follow. Trajectory calculation is used as a forecast supporting tool for both operational and research activities. Predefined dust sources can be identified and the trajectories can be precalculated from the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP forecast. In case of long distance transported dust, the tool should allow the operational forecaster to perform online trajectory calculation. This paper presents a case study for using trajectory calculation based on NWP models as a forecast supporting tool in Oman Meteorological Service during some dust storm events. Case study validation results showed a good agreement between the calculated trajectories and the real transport path of the dust storms and hence trajectory calculation can be used at operational centers for warning purposes.

  15. Wind and load variability in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holttinen, Hannele; Rissanen, Simo; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

    This publication analysed the variability of wind production and load in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the Nordic region as a whole, based on real data measured from large-scale wind power during 2009–2011. The Nordic-wide wind power time series was scaled up such that Sweden had same amount...... the three years analysed in this publication there were few storm incidents and they did not produce dramatic wind power ramps in the Nordic region. Wind and load variations are not correlated between the countries, which is beneficial from the viewpoint of wind integration. The smoothing effect is shown...... as reduction of variability from a single country to Nordic-wide wind power. The impact of wind power on the variability that the system experiences is evaluated by analysing the variability of net load with different wind power penetration levels. The Nordic-wide wind power production increases the highest...

  16. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  17. New insights on geomagnetic storms from observations and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordanova, Vania K [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the response at Earth of the Sun's varying energy output and forecasting geomagnetic activity is of central interest to space science, since intense geomagnetic storms may cause severe damages on technological systems and affect communications. Episodes of southward (Bzwind streams (HSS) whose geoeffectiveness is due to IMF Bz profiles fluctuating about zero with various amplitudes and duration. We show examples of ring current simulations during two geomagnetic storms representative of each interplanetary condition with our kinetic ring current atmosphere interactions model (RAM), and investigate the mechanisms responsible for trapping particles and for causing their loss. We find that periods of increased magnetospheric convection coinciding with enhancements of plasma sheet density are needed for strong ring current buildup. During the HSS-driven storm the convection potential is highly variable and causes small sporadic injections into the ring current. The long period of enhanced convection during the CME-driven storm causes a continuous ring current injection penetrating to lower L shells and stronger ring current buildup.

  18. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  19. Methodology for surge pressure evaluation in a water injection system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meliande, Patricia; Nascimento, Elson A. [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Civil; Mascarenhas, Flavio C.B. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Hidraulica Computacional; Dandoulakis, Joao P. [SHELL of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Predicting transient effects, known as surge pressures, is of high importance for offshore industry. It involves detailed computer modeling that attempts to simulate the complex interaction between flow line and fluid in order to ensure efficient system integrity. Platform process operators normally raise concerns whether the water injection system is adequately designed or not to be protected against possible surge pressures during sudden valve closure. This report aims to evaluate the surge pressures in Bijupira and Salema water injection systems due to valve closure, through a computer model simulation. Comparisons among the results from empirical formulations are discussed and supplementary analysis for Salema system were performed in order to define the maximum volumetric flow rate for which the design pressure was able to withstand. Maximum surge pressure values of 287.76 bar and 318.58 bar, obtained in Salema and Bijupira respectively, using empirical formulations have surpassed the operating pressure design, while the computer model results have pointed the greatest surge pressure value of 282 bar in Salema system. (author)

  20. Surge recovery techniques for the Tevatron cold compressors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, A.; Klebaner, A.L.; Makara, J.N.; Theilacker, J.C.; Fermilab

    2006-01-01

    The Fermilab Tevatron cryogenic system utilizes high-speed centrifugal cold compressors, made by Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. (IHI), for high-energy operations [1]. The compressor is designed to pump 60 g/s of 3.6 K saturated helium vapor at a pressure ratio of 2.8, with an off-design range of 40 to 70 g/s and operating speeds between 40 and 95 krpm. Since initial commissioning in 1993, Tevatron transient conditions such as quench recovery have led to multiple-location machine trips as a result of the cold compressors entering the surge regime. Historically, compressors operating at lower inlet pressures and higher speeds have been especially susceptible to these machine trips and it was not uncommon to have multiple compressor trips during large multiple-house quenches. In order to cope with these events and limit accelerator down time, surge recovery techniques have been implemented in an attempt to prevent the compressors from tripping once the machine entered this surge regime. This paper discusses the different methods of surge recovery that have been employed. Data from tests performed at the Cryogenic Test Facility at Fermilab as well as actual Tevatron operational data were utilized. In order to aid in the determination of the surge region, a full mapping study was undertaken to characterize the entire pressure field of the cold compressor. These techniques were then implemented and tested at several locations in the Tevatron with some success

  1. Tormenta tiroidea Thyroid storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisette Leal Curí

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available La tormenta tiroidea es una de las situaciones más críticas entre las emergencias endocrinas y tiene una significativa mortalidad. La etiología más común de tirotoxicosis es la enfermedad de Graves y el factor precipitante que predomina es la infección. Clínicamente se caracteriza por la disfunción de varios sistemas (termorregulador, nervioso central, gastrointestinal y cardiovascular, con niveles de hormonas tiroideas libres o totales por encima de los valores normales. El tratamiento debe tener un enfoque multidisciplinario, e incluye medidas de soporte en unidades de cuidados intensivos, normalización de la temperatura corporal, reducción de la producción y liberación de hormonas tiroideas, con antitiroideos de síntesis y yodo respectivamente, bloqueo de los efectos periféricos mediante la administración de beta-bloqueadores, y corrección del factor desencadenante. Una vez que el paciente se encuentra estable es necesario planificar una terapia definitiva que impida la recurrencia futura de la crisis tirotóxica.The thyroid storm is one of the most critical situations in the endocrine emergencies and exhibits a significant mortality rate. The most common etiology of thyrotoxicosis is Graves' disease and the predominant precipitating factor is infection. The clinical characteristics are dysfunction of several systems (heat-regulator, central nervous, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular, and levels of total or free thyroid hormones that exceed the normal values. The treatment must be multidisciplinary and include support measures in intensive care units, normalization of body temperature, reduction of the production and the release of thyroid hormones by using synthesis and iodine anti-thyroid products respectively, blockade of the peripheral effects through administration of Beta-blockers and correction of the unleashing factor. Once the patients are stabilized, it is necessary to plan the final therapy that will prevent the

  2. Geomagnetically induced currents around the world during the 17 March 2015 storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Yizengaw, E.; Pradipta, R.; Weygand, J. M.; Piersanti, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Moldwin, M. B.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

    2016-10-01

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm ˜10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ ˜10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solar wind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

  3. Analysis of Acoustic Cavitation Surge in a Rocket Engine Turbopump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideaki Nanri

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In a liquid rocket engine, cavitation in an inducer of a turbopump sometimes causes instability phenomena when the inducer is operated at low inlet pressure. Cavitation surge (auto-oscillation, one such instability phenomenon, has been discussed mainly based on an inertia model assuming incompressible flow. When this model is used, the frequency of the cavitation surge decreases continuously as the inlet pressure of the turbopump decreases. However, we obtained an interesting experimental result in which the frequency of cavitation surge varied discontinuously. Therefore, we employed one-dimensional analysis based on an acoustic model in which the fluid is assumed to be compressible. The analytical result qualitatively corresponded with the experimental result.

  4. Electromagnetic computation methods for lightning surge protection studies

    CERN Document Server

    Baba, Yoshihiro

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first to consolidate current research and to examine the theories of electromagnetic computation methods in relation to lightning surge protection. The authors introduce and compare existing electromagnetic computation methods such as the method of moments (MOM), the partial element equivalent circuit (PEEC), the finite element method (FEM), the transmission-line modeling (TLM) method, and the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method. The application of FDTD method to lightning protection studies is a topic that has matured through many practical applications in the past decade, and the authors explain the derivation of Maxwell's equations required by the FDTD, and modeling of various electrical components needed in computing lightning electromagnetic fields and surges with the FDTD method. The book describes the application of FDTD method to current and emerging problems of lightning surge protection of continuously more complex installations, particularly in critical infrastructures of e...

  5. Direct observations of atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interactions during Arctic winter and spring storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, R. M.; Itkin, P.; Granskog, M. A.; Assmy, P.; Cohen, L.; Duarte, P.; Doble, M. J.; Fransson, A.; Fer, I.; Fernandez Mendez, M.; Frey, M. M.; Gerland, S.; Haapala, J. J.; Hudson, S. R.; Liston, G. E.; Merkouriadi, I.; Meyer, A.; Muilwijk, M.; Peterson, A.; Provost, C.; Randelhoff, A.; Rösel, A.; Spreen, G.; Steen, H.; Smedsrud, L. H.; Sundfjord, A.

    2017-12-01

    To study the thinner and younger sea ice that now dominates the Arctic the Norwegian Young Sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) was launched in the ice-covered region north of Svalbard, from January to June 2015. During this time, eight local and remote storms affected the region and rare direct observations of the atmosphere, snow, ice and ocean were conducted. Six of these winter storms passed directly over the expedition and resulted in air temperatures rising from below -30oC to near 0oC, followed by abrupt cooling. Substantial snowfall prior to the campaign had already formed a snow pack of approximately 50 cm, to which the February storms contributed an additional 6 cm. The deep snow layer effectively isolated the ice cover and prevented bottom ice growth resulting in low brine fluxes. Peak wind speeds during winter storms exceeded 20 m/s, causing strong snow re-distribution, release of sea salt aerosol and sea ice deformation. The heavy snow load caused widespread negative freeboard; during sea ice deformation events, level ice floes were flooded by sea water, and at least 6-10 cm snow-ice layer was formed. Elevated deformation rates during the most powerful winter storms damaged the ice cover permanently such that the response to wind forcing increased by 60 %. As a result of a remote storm in April deformation processes opened about 4 % of the total area into leads with open water, while a similar amount of ice was deformed into pressure ridges. The strong winds also enhanced ocean mixing and increased ocean heat fluxes three-fold in the pycnocline from 4 to 12 W/m2. Ocean heat fluxes were extremely large (over 300 W/m2) during storms in regions where the warm Atlantic inflow is located close to surface over shallow topography. This resulted in very large (5-25 cm/day) bottom ice melt and in cases flooding due to heavy snow load. Storm events increased the carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and ocean but also affected the pCO2 in surface waters

  6. Community health facility preparedness for a cholera surge in Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobula, Linda Meta; Jacquet, Gabrielle A; Weinhauer, Kristin; Alcidas, Gladys; Thomas, Hans-Muller; Burnham, Gilbert

    2013-01-01

    With increasing population displacement and worsening water insecurity after the 2010 earthquake, Haiti experienced a large cholera outbreak. Our goal was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of seven community health facilities' ability to respond to a surge in cholera cases. Since 2010, Catholic Relief Services (CRS) with a number of public and private donors has been working with seven health facilities in an effort to reduce morbidity and mortality from cholera infection. In November 2012, CRS through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s support, asked the Johns Hopkins Center for Refugee and Disaster Response to conduct a cholera surge simulation tabletop exercise at these health facilities to improve each facility's response in the event of a cholera surge. Using simulation development guidelines from the Pan American Health Organization and others, a simulation scenario script was produced that included situations of differing severity, supply chain, as well as a surge of patients. A total of 119 hospital staff from seven sites participated in the simulation exercise including community health workers, clinicians, managers, pharmacists, cleaners, and security guards. Clinics that had challenges during the simulated clinical care of patients were those that did not appropriately treat all cholera patients according to protocol, particularly those that were vulnerable, those that would need additional staff to properly treat patients during a surge of cholera, and those that required a better inventory of supplies. Simulation-based activities have the potential to identify healthcare delivery system vulnerabilities that are amenable to intervention prior to a cholera surge.

  7. Coastal-storm Inundation and Sea-level Rise in New Zealand Scott A. Stephens and Rob Bell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, S. A.; Bell, R.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal-storm inundation is a growing problem in New Zealand. It happens occasionally, when the combined forces of weather and sea line up, causing inundation of low-elevation land, coastal erosion, and rivers and stormwater systems to back up causing inland flooding. This becomes a risk where we have placed buildings and infrastructure too close to the coast. Coastal-storm inundation is not a new problem, it has happened historically, but it is becoming more frequent as the sea level continues to rise. From analyses of historic extreme sea-level events, we show how the different sea-level components, such as tide and storm surge, contribute to extreme sea-level and how these components vary around New Zealand. Recent sea-level analyses reveal some large storm surges, bigger than previously reported, and we show the type of weather patterns that drive them, and how this leads to differences in storm surge potential between the east and west coasts. Although large and damaging storm-tides have occurred historically, we show that there is potential for considerably larger elevations to be reached in the "perfect storm", and we estimate the likelihood of such extreme events occurring. Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly increase the frequency, depth and consequences of coastal-storm inundation in the future. We show an application of a new method to determine the increasing frequency of extreme sea-levels with SLR, one which integrates the extreme tail with regularly-occurring high tides. We present spatial maps of several extreme sea-level threshold exceedance statistics for a case study at Mission Bay, Auckland, New Zealand. The maps show how the local community is likely to face decision points at various SLR thresholds, and we conclude that coastal hazard assessments should ideally use several SLR scenarios and time windows within the next 100 years or more to support the decision-making process for future coastal adaptation and when response options will be needed

  8. Relativistic electron acceleration during HILDCAA events: are precursor CIR magnetic storms important?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hajra, R.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Brum, Ch. G. M.; Antunes Vieira, L. E.; Santolík, Ondřej

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 67, Article Number 109 (2015), 109/1-109/11 ISSN 1880-5981 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12231 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : HILDCAAs * high-speed streams * CIRs * chorus plasma waves * radiation belt * magnetospheric relativistic electrons * solar wind * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.871, year: 2015

  9. Storms over the Urban Forest: Planning, Responding, and Regreening-- A community Guide to Natural Disaster Relief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa L. Burban; John W. Andresen

    1994-01-01

    Natural disasters which can occur in the United States include floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and related high-velocity winds, as well as ice storms. Preparing for these natural disasters, which strike urban forests in large cities and small communities, should involve the cooperative effort of a wide array of municipal agencies, private arboricultural companies,...

  10. Observations of the upper ocean response to storm forcing in the South Atlantic Roaring Forties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Marsh

    1995-10-01

    Full Text Available In the austral summer of 1992–1993 the passage of a storm system drove a strong upper ocean response at 45°S in the mid-South Atlantic. Good in situ observations were obtained. CTD casts revealed that the mixed layer deepened by ~40 m over 4 days. Wind stirring dominated over buoyancy flux-driven mixing during the onset of high winds. Doppler shear currents further reveal this to be intimately related to inertial dynamics. The penetration depth of inertial currents, which are confined to the mixed layer, increases with time after a wind event, matched by a downward propagation of low values of the Richardson number. This suggests that inertial current shear is instrumental in producing turbulence at the base of the mixed layer. Evolution of inertial transport is simulated using a time series of ship-observed wind stress. Simulated transport is only 30–50% of the observed transport, suggesting that much of the observed inertial motion was forced by an earlier (possibly remote storm. Close proximity of the subtropical front further complicates the upper ocean response to the storm. A simple heat balance for the upper 100 m reveals that surface cooling and mixing (during the storm can account for only a small fraction of an apparent ~1 °C mixed layer cooling.

  11. The selective dynamical downscaling method for extreme-wind atlases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2012-01-01

    and (iii) post-processing. The post-processing generalizes the winds from the mesoscale modelling to standard conditions, i.e. 10-m height over a homogeneous surface with roughness length of 5 cm. The generalized winds are then used to calculate the 50-year wind using the annual maximum method for each...... mesoscale grid point. The generalization of the mesoscale winds through the post-processing provides a framework for data validation and for applying further the mesoscale extreme winds at specific places using microscale modelling. The results are compared with measurements from two areas with different......A selective dynamical downscaling method is developed to obtain extreme-wind atlases for large areas. The method is general, efficient and flexible. The method consists of three steps: (i) identifying storm episodes for a particular area, (ii) downscaling of the storms using mesoscale modelling...

  12. Understanding the variability of magnetic storms caused by ICMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benacquista, Remi; Rochel, Sandrine; Rolland, Guy

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the dynamics of magnetic storms due to interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We used multi-epoch superposed epoch analyses (SEAs) with a choice of epoch times based on the structure of the events. By sorting the events with respect to simple large-scale features (presence of a shock, magnetic structure, polarity of magnetic clouds), this method provides an original insight into understanding the variability of magnetic storm dynamics. Our results show the necessity of seeing ICMEs and their preceding sheaths as a whole since each substructure impacts the other and has an effect on its geoeffectiveness. It is shown that the presence of a shock drives the geoeffectiveness of the sheaths, while both the shock and the magnetic structure impact the geoeffectiveness of the ICMEs. In addition, we showed that the ambient solar wind characteristics are not the same for ejecta and magnetic clouds (MCs). The ambient solar wind upstream magnetic clouds are quieter than upstream ejecta and particularly slower. We also focused on the polarity of magnetic clouds since it drives not only their geoeffectiveness but also their temporal dynamics. South-north magnetic clouds (SN-MCs) and north-south magnetic clouds (NS-MCs) show no difference in geoeffectiveness for our sample of events. Lastly, since it is well-known that sequences of events can possibly induce strong magnetic storms, such sequences have been studied using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) for the first time. We found that these sequences of ICMEs are very usual and concern about 40 % of the ICMEs. Furthermore, they cause much more intense magnetic storms than isolated events do.

  13. Design and construction of surge protection devices for rural distribution transformers based on the hygroscopic properties of sand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arevalo, Liliana; Mejia, Antonio [National University of Colombia, Bogota (Colombia). EMC Research Group], Emails: lparevalog@unal.edu.co, ajmejiau@unal.edu.co; Diaz, Oscar [Universidad Distrital FJC, Bogota (Colombia). School of Technology]. E-mail: ojdiazc@unal.edu.co

    2007-07-01

    The rural distribution transformer failure ratio due to lightning activity is a critical matter in several regions of Colombia. Different research projects have been funded by Colombian electrical companies in order to solve this problem. In some colombian regions, such as Rionegro, Cundinamarca, the transformer failure ratio has been as high as 50%. In different places around the world with a lightning activity similar to our country, the failure ratio has been kept close to 1%. The problem could be solved by developing an integral solution that includes: reduction of grounding resistance and inductive loops, specific transformer design and extensive use of surge arresters on the low and medium voltage transformer windings. The hygroscopic properties of granular materials against lightning-like current and voltage impulses were used to develop an economic surge protection device based on sand. The transformers with the highest failure ratio were selected to install this new type of surge protection device. The design and implementation of the new device for the distribution transformer low-voltage side is described in this paper. (author)

  14. Extreme Lightning Flash Rates as an Early Indicator of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Extreme lightning flash rates are proving to be an early indicator of intensifying storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Most of this lightning is in the cloud, where the naked eye can not see it. Recent global observations of thunderstorms from space indicate that giant electrical storms (supercells and convective complexes) with flash rates on the order of 1 flash per second are most common over the land masses of the America sub-tropics and equatorial Congo Basin. Within the United States, the average tornado warning lead time on a national basis is about 11 min. The real-time observation of extreme flash rates and the rapid increase in the in-cloud flash rate, signalling the intensification of the storm updraft, may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time.

  15. Dynamic auroral storms on Saturn as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J D; Badman, S V; Baines, K H; Brown, R H; Bunce, E J; Clarke, J T; Cowley, S W H; Crary, F J; Dougherty, M K; Gérard, J-C; Grocott, A; Grodent, D; Kurth, W S; Melin, H; Mitchell, D G; Pryor, W R; Stallard, T S

    2014-05-28

    We present observations of significant dynamics within two UV auroral storms observed on Saturn using the Hubble Space Telescope in April/May 2013. Specifically, we discuss bursts of auroral emission observed at the poleward boundary of a solar wind-induced auroral storm, propagating at ∼330% rigid corotation from near ∼01 h LT toward ∼08 h LT. We suggest that these are indicative of ongoing, bursty reconnection of lobe flux in the magnetotail, providing strong evidence that Saturn's auroral storms are caused by large-scale flux closure. We also discuss the later evolution of a similar storm and show that the emission maps to the trailing region of an energetic neutral atom enhancement. We thus identify the auroral form with the upward field-aligned continuity currents flowing into the associated partial ring current.

  16. Wind Structure and Wind Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brorsen, Michael

    The purpose of this note is to provide a short description of wind, i.e. of the flow in the atmosphere of the Earth and the loading caused by wind on structures. The description comprises: causes to the generation of windhe interaction between wind and the surface of the Earthhe stochastic nature...... of windhe interaction between wind and structures, where it is shown that wind loading depends strongly on this interaction...

  17. Effect of azilsartan versus candesartan on morning blood pressure surges in Japanese patients with essential hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakugi, Hiromi; Kario, Kazuomi; Enya, Kazuaki; Sugiura, Kenkichi; Ikeda, Yoshinori

    2014-06-01

    Morning blood pressure (BP) surge is reported as a risk factor for cardiovascular events and end-organ damage independent of the 24-h BP level. Controlling morning BP surge is therefore important to help prevent onset of cardiovascular disease. We compared the efficacy of azilsartan and candesartan in controlling morning systolic BP (SBP) surges by analyzing relevant ambulatory BP monitoring data in patients with/without baseline BP surges. As part of a 16-week randomized, double-blind study of azilsartan (20-40 mg once daily) and candesartan (8-12 mg once daily) in Japanese patients with essential hypertension, an exploratory analysis was carried out using ambulatory BP monitoring at baseline and week 14. The effects of study drugs on morning BP surges, including sleep trough surge (early morning SBP minus the lowest night-time SBP) and prewaking surge (early morning SBP minus SBP before awakening), were evaluated. Patients with sleep trough surge of at least 35 mmHg were defined by the presence of a morning BP surge (the 'surge group'). Sleep trough surge and prewaking surge data were available at both baseline and week 14 in 548 patients, 147 of whom (azilsartan 76; candesartan 71) had a baseline morning BP surge. In surge group patients, azilsartan significantly reduced both the sleep trough surge and the prewaking surge at week 14 compared with candesartan (least squares means of the between-group differences -5.8 mmHg, P=0.0395; and -5.7 mmHg, P=0.0228, respectively). Once-daily azilsartan improved sleep trough surge and prewaking surge to a greater extent than candesartan in Japanese patients with grade I-II essential hypertension.

  18. Impact and monitoring of dust storms in Taklimakan desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, G. G.; Li, X.; Zheng, Z.

    2012-12-01

    The Taklimakan is China's largest, driest, and warmest desert in total area of 338000km^2 with perimeter of 436 km, it is also known as one of the world's largest shifting-sand deserts. Fully 85 percent of the total area consists of mobile, crescent-shaped sand dunes and are virtually devoid of vegetation. The abundant sand provides material for frequent intense dust storms. The Taklimakan desert fills the expansive Tarim Basin between the Kunlun Mountains and the Tibet Plateau to the south and the Tian Shan Mountains to the north. The Tarim River flows across the basin from west-to-east. In these places, the oases created by fresh surface water support agriculture. Studies outside Xinjiang indicated that 80% dust source of storms was from farmland. Dust storms in the Tarim Basin occur for 20 to 59 days, mainly in spring every year. However, little effort was taken to investigate soil wind erosion and dust emission around the desert. Quantitative understanding of individual dust events in the arid Taklimakan desert, for example, the dust emission rates and the long-range transport, are still incomplete. Therefore, the dust events were observed through routine satellite sensors, lidar instruments, airborne samplers, and surface-based aerosol monitors. Soil wind erosion and suspended particulates emission of four major dust storms from the desert and the typical oasis farmlands at the north rim of the desert were measured using creep sampler, BSNE and TSP at eight heights in 2012. In addition, Aqua satellite AOD data, the NAAPS Global Aeosol model, the CALIPSO satellite products, EPA's AirNow AQI of PM2.5 and HYSPLIT Back Trajectory model were applied to analyze dust transport across the Pacific. Four significant dust storms were observed at the north rim of Taklimakan desert in the spring, 2012. During those events, predominant wind direction ranged from 296 to 334°, wind speed over 7 m/s at 2 m lasted for 471-1074 min, gust wind speed ranged from 11-18m/s. It was

  19. Storm wave deposits in southern Istria (Croatia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biolchi, Sara; Furlani, Stefano; Devoto, Stefano; Scicchitano, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The accumulation of large boulders related to extreme waves are well documented in different areas of the Mediterranean coasts, such as in Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, Greece (Lesbos and Crete islands), France, Spain, Malta, Italy (Sicily and Apulia regions). These deposits have been associated to storm or tsunami events or both, depending on the local history. If compared to the Mediterranean Sea, the Adriatic Sea is considered a shallow basin, with very low wave energy. In particular the NE Adriatic, where Istria Peninsula (Croatia) is located, geological and geomorphological evidences of extreme wave events have never been described, as well as no tsunamis have been registered. We present the boulder deposits that have been recently found out in southern Istria, at Premantura and Marlera localities and we discuss the mechanisms that could have been responsible of the detachment and movement of these large rocky blocks from the emerged part of the coast and from the sea bottom inland. A multidisciplinary approach was adopted: geological and geomorphological surveyings, UAV and digital photogrammetric analysis, applying of the hydrodynamic equations as well as underwater profiles were carried out between 2012 and 2016. The southern Istrian coasts are composed of Cretaceous bedded limestones, sub-horizontal or gently inclined toward the sea and are exposed to southern winds, Scirocco and Libeccio, with wide fetch. The boulder deposits occur in correspondence of flat promontories or ancient quarry pavements, where the topography, together with the bedding planes and a dense fracture pattern constitute the predisposing factors of the boulder sizing and detachment. Boulder sizes, density, position and elevation have been measured in order to apply the hydrodynamic equations, which provide wave height values that can discriminate a storm from a tsunami origin. Biogenic marine encrustations, sometimes very recent, have been observed on large part of the boulders, attesting

  20. Two types of geomagnetic storms and relationship between Dst and AE indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadrina, Lyudmila P.

    2017-10-01

    The study of the relationship between Dst and AE indices of the geomagnetic field and its manifestation in geomagnetic storms in the XXIII solar cycle was carried out. It is shown that geomagnetic storms are divided into two groups according to the ratio of the amplitude of Ds index decrease to the sum of the AE index during the main phase of the storm. For the first group it is characteristic that for small depressions of the Dst index, significant amounts of the AE index are observed. Most often these are storms with a gradual beginning and a long main phase associated with recurrent solar wind streams. Storms of the second group differ in large amplitudes of Dst index decrease, shorter duration of main phase and small amounts of AE-index. Usually these are sporadic geomagnetic storms with a sudden commencement caused by interplanetary disturbances of the CME type. The storms of these two types differ also in their geoeffects, including the effect on human health.

  1. Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

  2. Parabolic dune behavior under effective storm Wind conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João José Bigarella

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available O presente trabalho apresenta o resultado parcial de 32 anos de pesquisas de campo realizadas nas dunas de Santa Catarina durante o período compreendido entre os anos de 1963 a 1995. O campo de dunas da Lagoa, Ilha de Santa Catarina foi objeto de pesquisas desde 1963. Em 1972 foi selecionada uma duna parabólica para um estudo sistemático de suas estruturas primárias. Em 1975 iniciou-se o acompanhamento do movimento da duna e de suas mudanças morphológicas. Em 20 anos o nariz da duna parabólica desloccou-se 49,7 metros pra o norte numa velocidade média de 2,49 metros por ano. Seu volume acima da curva de nível arbitrária de 3m manteve-se em torno de 22.500m3 durante o período de 1975 a 1988, aumentando para 37.257,13m3 em 1995. O comportamento da duna através dos anos é apresentado nas várias ilustrações, as quais permitem uma melhor compreensão das tendências evolutivas da duna parabólica num campo de dunas reversas, onde a ação dos ventos de tempestade é bastante efetiva.

  3. Geomagnetic Storms and Acute Myocardial Infarctions Morbidity in Middle Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrova, S.; Babayev, E. S.; Mustafa, F. R.; Stoilova, I.; Taseva, T.; Georgieva, K.

    2009-12-01

    Results of collaborative studies on revealing a possible relationship between solar activity (SA) and geomagnetic activity (GMA) and pre-hospital acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity are presented. Studies were based on medical data from Bulgaria and Azerbaijan. Bulgarian data, covering the period from 01.12.1995 to 31.12.2004, concerned daily distribution of number of patients with AMI diagnose (in total 1192 cases) from Sofia Region on the day of admission at the hospital. Azerbaijani data contained 4479 pre-hospital AMI incidence cases for the period 01.01.2003-31.12.2005 and were collected from 21 emergency and first medical aid stations in Grand Baku Area (including Absheron Economical Region with several millions of inhabitants). Data were "cleaned" as much as possible from social and other factors and were subjected to medical and mathematical/statistical analysis. Medical analysis showed reliability of the used data. Method of ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA) was applied to check the significance of GMA intensity effect and the type of geomagnetic storms - those caused by magnetic clouds (MC) and by high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) - on AMI incidences. Relevant correlation coefficients were calculated. Results were outlined for both considered data. Results obtained for the Sofia data showed statistically significant positive correlation between considered GMA indices and AMI occurrence. ANOVA revealed that AMI incidence number was significantly increased from the day before till the day after geomagnetic storms with different intensities. Geomagnetic storms caused by MC were related to significant increase of AMI number in comparison with the storms caused by HSSWS. There was a trend for such different effects even on -1st and +1st day for the period 1995-2004. Results obtained for the Baku data revealed trends similar to those obtained for Sofia data. AMI morbidity increment was observed on the days with higher GMA intensity and after these days

  4. Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Daglis, I. A

    2001-01-01

    ... were: to provide a systematic overview and rigorous introduction to the physics of space storms; to review recent spacecraft measurements that have provided new insight into the dynamics and effects of space storms...

  5. Patterns of Storm Injury and Tree Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Smith; Walter Shortle; Kenneth Dudzik

    2001-01-01

    The ice storm of January 1998 in the northeastern United States and adjacent Canada was an extreme example of severe weather that injures trees every year. Broken branches, split branch forks, and snapped stems are all examples of storm injury.

  6. Stochastic Optical Reconstruction Microscopy (STORM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianquan; Ma, Hongqiang; Liu, Yang

    2017-07-05

    Super-resolution (SR) fluorescence microscopy, a class of optical microscopy techniques at a spatial resolution below the diffraction limit, has revolutionized the way we study biology, as recognized by the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2014. Stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM), a widely used SR technique, is based on the principle of single molecule localization. STORM routinely achieves a spatial resolution of 20 to 30 nm, a ten-fold improvement compared to conventional optical microscopy. Among all SR techniques, STORM offers a high spatial resolution with simple optical instrumentation and standard organic fluorescent dyes, but it is also prone to image artifacts and degraded image resolution due to improper sample preparation or imaging conditions. It requires careful optimization of all three aspects-sample preparation, image acquisition, and image reconstruction-to ensure a high-quality STORM image, which will be extensively discussed in this unit. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  7. Aerosol deposition and suspension during a Texas dust storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porch, W.M.; Lovill, J.E.

    1976-03-01

    It is important to understand deposition and suspension of aerosol by wind as separate phenomena. This is especially true for the case of a contaminated area of land, contributing toxic aerosol. Once the toxic particulates have left the contaminated area, they can only deposit, even though new non-toxic particulates are being suspended all around them. A fortunate meteorological situation and a site with fast response aerosol and wind instrumentation, allowed us to analyze deposition and suspension, as separate phenomena on the same data record during a Texas dust storm. The major results of this analysis can be summarized as follows: The size distribution of the soil particulates and the geometrical orientation of plowed furrows to the wind are important to the threshold velocity, beyond which particles will be suspended from bare soil. Thresholds this year for clay soil were almost double that for the previous year for sand soil; the relationship between aerosol flux and wind speed above threshold was less well defined than the sandy soil data. The relationship does seem to involve a lower exponent than the sandy soil data, which showed a flux that varied as about the sixth power of the wind speed

  8. Radiation Belt Storm Probes: Resolving Fundamental Physics with Practical Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukhorskiy, Aleksandr Y.; Mauk, Barry H.; Fox, Nicola J.; Sibeck, David G.; Grebowsky, Joseph M.

    2011-01-01

    The fundamental processes that energize, transport, and cause the loss of charged particles operate throughout the universe at locations as diverse as magnetized planets, the solar wind, our Sun, and other stars. The same processes operate within our immediate environment, the Earth's radiation belts. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) mission will provide coordinated two-spacecraft observations to obtain understanding of these fundamental processes controlling the dynamic variability of the near-Earth radiation environment. In this paper we discuss some of the profound mysteries of the radiation belt physics that will be addressed by RBSP and briefly describe the mission and its goals.

  9. Decreasing the stable trapping region during geomagnetic storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mal'tsev, Yu.P.; Feshchenko, E.Yu.

    1998-01-01

    Within the frameworks of the magnetic field model, depending on the solar wind pressure, the B = B s (B s is the magnetic field in the undersolar point) contour behaviour in the equatorial plane is calculated. The boundary of stable trapping in the quiet time is at the distance of 10-11 R E by day and ∼ 7 R E by night. During strong storms this distance may be decreased up 4-5 R E . The calculation results coincide satisfactorily with satellite measurements

  10. A Surge of Interest in Uganda's Art Deco | Craddock Williams ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Surge of Interest in Uganda's Art Deco. Vivian Craddock Williams. Abstract. No Abstract. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/uj.v46i1.23038 · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians ...

  11. ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent. Afr. J. surg

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hp 630 Dual Core

    Koura A, Ogouyemi A, Hounnou GM, Agoussou Voyeme A, Goudote E. Les hernies ombilicales étranglées chez lsenfant au cNHU de cotonou : A propos de 111 cas. Med Afr Noire 1996; 43: 638. 41. 12. Keshtgar AS, Griffiths M. Incarceration of umbilical hernia in children: Is the trend increasing? Eur J PediatrSurg 2003; 13: ...

  12. Into the Surge of Network-driven Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Claus Møller; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss; Gertsen, Frank

    2013-01-01

    this is examined from the 1880’s up until today. The contribution of the paper is a societal perspective on innovation, where the difference between industrial society and knowledge society leads into the surge of network-driven innovation. Network-driven innovation is unfolded on top of the known cost- driven...

  13. Study of surge current effects on solid tantalum capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    Results are presented of a 2,000 hour cycled life test program conducted to determine the effect of short term surge current screening on approximately 47 micron f/volt solid tantalum capacitors. The format provides average values and standard deviations of the parameters, capacitance, dissipation factor, and equivalent series resistance at 120 Hz, 1KHz, abd 40 KHz.

  14. ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent. Afr. J. surg

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hp 630 Dual Core

    148. ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent. Afr. J. surg. COSECSA/ASEA Publication -East & Central African Journal of Surgery. March/April 2016 Volume 21 (1). Urological injuries following Obstetricaland Gynecological Surgeries. H.R. Sebukoto¹, E. Semwaga², R.A. Rugakingila³. 1Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University College.

  15. 14 CFR 33.65 - Surge and stall characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Surge and stall characteristics. 33.65 Section 33.65 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT... stall characteristics. When the engine is operated in accordance with operating instructions required by...

  16. Aging assessment of surge protective devices in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.F.; Subudhi, M.; Carroll, D.P.

    1996-01-01

    An assessment was performed to determine the effects of aging on the performance and availability of surge protective devices (SPDs), used in electrical power and control systems in nuclear power plants. Although SPDs have not been classified as safety-related, they are risk-important because they can minimize the initiating event frequencies associated with loss of offsite power and reactor trips. Conversely, their failure due to age might cause some of those initiating events, e.g., through short circuit failure modes, or by allowing deterioration of the safety-related component(s) they are protecting from overvoltages, perhaps preventing a reactor trip, from an open circuit failure mode. From the data evaluated during 1980--1994, it was found that failures of surge arresters and suppressers by short circuits were neither a significant risk nor safety concern, and there were no failures of surge suppressers preventing a reactor trip. Simulations, using the ElectroMagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) were performed to determine the adequacy of high voltage surge arresters

  17. ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent Afr J Surg

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent Afr J Surg. 57 COSECSA/ASEA Publication -- East & Central African Journal of Surgery 2017; Vol. ... period at a trauma centre in Nigeria. Methods: This was a retrospective review of in-hospital trauma deaths during the period of ..... haematoma evacuation. Four patients underwent laparotomy for ...

  18. Multidimensional Numerical Modeling of Surges Over Initially Dry Land

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berger, R

    2004-01-01

    .... The first test case is for a straight flume and the second contains a reservoir and a horseshoe channel section. It is important that the model match the timing of the surge as well as the height In both cases the ADH compared closely with the flume results.

  19. Aging assessment of surge protective devices in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, J.F.; Subudhi, M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Carroll, D.P. [Florida Univ., Gainesville, FL (United States)

    1996-01-01

    An assessment was performed to determine the effects of aging on the performance and availability of surge protective devices (SPDs), used in electrical power and control systems in nuclear power plants. Although SPDs have not been classified as safety-related, they are risk-important because they can minimize the initiating event frequencies associated with loss of offsite power and reactor trips. Conversely, their failure due to age might cause some of those initiating events, e.g., through short circuit failure modes, or by allowing deterioration of the safety-related component(s) they are protecting from overvoltages, perhaps preventing a reactor trip, from an open circuit failure mode. From the data evaluated during 1980--1994, it was found that failures of surge arresters and suppressers by short circuits were neither a significant risk nor safety concern, and there were no failures of surge suppressers preventing a reactor trip. Simulations, using the ElectroMagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) were performed to determine the adequacy of high voltage surge arresters.

  20. A novel parameter estimation method for metal oxide surge arrester ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Accurate modelling and exact determination of Metal Oxide (MO) surge arrester parameters are very important for arrester allocation, insulation coordination studies and systems reliability calculations. In this paper, a new technique, which is the combination of Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO) and Ant Colony ...

  1. ISSN 2073-9990 East Cent. Afr. J. surg

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hp 630 Dual Core

    Afr. J. surg. COSECSA/ASEA Publication - East and Central African Journal of Surgery. December 2016; Vol. 21 No. 3. The Surgical Management of Primary Hyperparathyroidism: The Experience in Tikur nbessa. Specialized Tertiary Referral and Teaching Hospital, ddis baba, Ethiopia. Sahilu Wondimu1, Berhanu Nega2.

  2. Surge of plasma waves in an inhomogeneous plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benhassine, Mohammed

    1985-01-01

    The first part of this research thesis addresses the propagation of waves in a plasma. It presents the equation of propagation of an electromagnetic wave in a plasma without magnetic field, and analyses the propagation in an inhomogeneous medium. The second part addresses the wave-particle interaction: interaction between electrons and an electromagnetic wave, between electrons and an electrostatic wave (trapping), and between electrons and a localised electric field. The third chapter presents the analytic theory of oscillations of a cold plasma (macroscopic equations in Lagrangian coordinates, analytic solution before surge). The next chapter discusses physical interpretations before the wave surge, after the wave surge, and about energy exchange (within or outside of resonance). Numerical simulations and their results are then reported and discussed. The sixth chapter addresses the case of an electrostatic wave surge in a hot plasma. It notably addresses the following aspects: equivalence between the description of moments and the Waterbag model, interaction between non linearity and thermal effects, variation of electric field amplitude with temperature. Results of numerical simulations are presented, and the last part addresses experimental predictions for microwaves-plasma interaction and laser-matter interaction [fr

  3. Shoreline resilience to individual storms and storm clusters on a meso-macrotidal barred beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of individual storms and storm clusters on shoreline recovery for the meso-to macrotidal, barred Biscarrosse beach in SW France, using 6 years of daily video observations. While the study area experienced 60 storms during the 6-year study period, only 36 storms

  4. Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in two mangrove forests in Everglades National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoak, Joseph M.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Smith, Thomas J.; Sanders, Christian J.

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment cores collected from two mangrove forest sites within Everglades National Park, Florida (USA). Enhanced mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were found in an upper layer that corresponded to a well-documented storm surge deposit. Accretion rates were 5.9 and 6.5 mm yr−1 within the storm deposit compared to overall rates of 2.5 and 3.6 mm yr−1. These rates were found to be matching or exceeding average sea-level rise reported for Key West, Florida. Organic carbon burial rates were 260 and 393 g m−2 yr−1 within the storm deposit compared to 151 and 168 g m−2 yr−1 overall burial rates. The overall rates are similar to global estimates for OC burial in marine wetlands. With tropical storms being a frequent occurrence in this region the resulting storm surge deposits are an important mechanism for maintaining both overall accretion and OC burial rates. Enhanced OC burial rates within the storm deposit could be due to an increase in productivity created from higher concentrations of phosphorus within storm-delivered sediments and/or from the deposition of allochthonous OC. Climate change-amplified storms and sea-level rise could damage mangrove forests, exposing previously buried OC to oxidation and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the processes described here provide a mechanism whereby oxidation of OC would be limited and the overall OC reservoir maintained within the mangrove forest sediments.

  5. Why does substorm-associated auroral surge travel westward?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebihara, Y.; Tanaka, T.

    2018-01-01

    A substorm is a long-standing unsolved issue in solar-terrestrial physics. One of the big challenges is to explain reasonably the evolution of the morphological structure of the aurora associated with the substorm. The sudden appearance of a bright aurora and an auroral surge traveling westward (westward traveling surge, WTS) are noticeable features of the aurora during the substorm expansion phase. By using a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation, we obtained the following results regarding the WTS. When the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward, a persistent dynamo appears in the cusp/mantle region, driving the two-cell magnetospheric convection. Then, the substorm growth phase begins. When magnetic reconnection takes place in the magnetotail, plasma is accelerated earthward in the plasma sheet, and accelerated toward the equatorial plane in the lobe. The second dynamo appears in the near-Earth region, which is closely associated with the generation of the field-aligned current (FAC) on the nightside. When the FAC reaches the ionosphere, the aurora becomes bright, and the onset of the expansion phase begins. In the ionosphere, the conductivity is intensified in the bright aurora due to the precipitation of accelerated electrons. The conductivity gradient gives rise to the overflow of the Hall current, which acts as the third dynamo. The overflow results in the accumulation of space charge, which causes a divergent electric field. The divergent electric field generates a thin, structured upward FAC adjacent to the bright aurora. The opposite process takes place on the opposite side of the bright aurora. In short, the upward FAC increases (appearance of aurora) at the leading edge of the surge, and decreases (disappearance of aurora) at the trailing edge of the surge. By repeating these processes, the surge seems to travel westward.

  6. Assessment of water pipes durability under pressure surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham Ha, Hai; Minh, Lanh Pham Thi; Tang Van, Lam; Bulgakov, Boris; Bazhenova, Soafia

    2017-10-01

    Surge phenomenon occurs on the pipeline by the closing valve or pump suddenly lost power. Due to the complexity of the water hammer simulation, previous researches have only considered water hammer on the single pipe or calculation of some positions on water pipe network, it have not been analysis for all of pipe on the water distribution systems. Simulation of water hammer due to closing valve on water distribution system and the influence level of pressure surge is evaluated at the defects on pipe. Water hammer on water supply pipe network are simulated by Water HAMMER software academic version and the capacity of defects are calculated by SINTAP. SINTAP developed from Brite-Euram projects in Brussels-Belgium with the aim to develop a process for assessing the integrity of the structure for the European industry. Based on the principle of mechanical fault, indicating the size of defects in materials affect the load capacity of the product in the course of work, the process has proposed setting up the diagram to fatigue assessment defect (FAD). The methods are applied for water pipe networks of Lien Chieu district, Da Nang city, Viet Nam, the results show the affected area of wave pressure by closing the valve and thereby assess the greatest pressure surge effect to corroded pipe. The SINTAP standard and finite element mesh analysis at the defect during the occurrence of pressure surge which will accurately assess the bearing capacity of the old pipes. This is one of the bases to predict the leakage locations on the water distribution systems. Amount of water hammer when identified on the water supply networks are decreasing due to local losses at the nodes as well as the friction with pipe wall, so this paper adequately simulate water hammer phenomena applying for actual water distribution systems. The research verified that pipe wall with defect is damaged under the pressure surge value.

  7. Storm-tide elevations produced by Hurricane Andrew along the southern Florida coasts, August 24, 1992

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Mitchell H.

    1994-01-01

    On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew crossed southern peninsular Florida. The combined effects of storm surge from the hurricane and astronomical tide, referred to as storm tide, caused flooding over a large part of southern Florida. Subsequent to the flooding, many high-water marks were identified, described, and surveyed along the south- eastern coast of Florida (Miami to Key Largo) and at selected areas along the southwestern coast of Florida (Flamingo to Goodland). Descriptions of these 336 high-water makrs are presented in tabular form in this report and their locations are plotted on nineteen 7.5-minute topographic quadrangle maps. For the southeastern coast, north-south profiles of the high-water makrs along the outher and inner barrier islands and the western shoreline of Biscayne Bay are presented. Average storm-tide elevations (relative to sea level) ranged from 4 to 6 f