WorldWideScience

Sample records for wind resource predictions

  1. Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use thereof. Destroy this report when it is no longer needed. Do...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER

  2. A methodology for the prediction of offshore wind energy resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S J; Watson, G M [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxfordshire (United Kingdom); Holt, R.J. [Univ. of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom)] Barthelmie, R.J. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Zuylen, E.J. van [Ecofys Energy and Environment, Utrecht (Netherlands)] Cleijne, J.W. [Kema Sustainable, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    1999-03-01

    There are increasing constraints on the development of wind power on land. Recently, there has been a move to develop wind power offshore, though the amount of measured wind speed data at potential offshore wind farm sites is sparse. We present a novel methodology for the prediction of offshore wind power resources which is being applied to European Union waters. The first stage is to calculate the geostrophic wind from long-term pressure fields over the sea area of interest. Secondly, the geostrophic wind is transformed to the sea level using WA{sup s}P, taking account of near shore topography. Finally, these values are corrected for land/sea climatology (stability) effects using an analytical Coastal discontinuity Model (CDM). These values are further refined using high resolution offshore data at selected sites. The final values are validated against existing offshore datasets. Preliminary results are presented of the geostrophic wind speed validation in European Union waters. (au)

  3. Tidal influence on offshore wind fields and resource predictions[Efficient Development of Offshore Windfarms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, D. [Entec UK Ltd., Doherty Innovation Centre, Penicuik (United Kingdom); Infield, D. [Loughborough Univ., Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Tecnology, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    2002-03-01

    The rise and fall of the sea surface due to tides effectively moves an offshore wind turbine hub through the wind shear profile. This effect is quantified using measured data from 3 offshore UK sites. Statistical evidence of the influence of tide on mean wind speed and turbulence is presented. The implications of this effect for predicting offshore wind resource are outlined. (au)

  4. Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Deockho Kim; Jin Hur

    2017-01-01

    Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the poten...

  5. Wind Resource Assessment in Complex Terrain with a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Karin; Serafin, Stefano; Grubišić, Vanda; Dorninger, Manfred; Zauner, Rudolf; Fink, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A crucial step in planning new wind farms is the estimation of the amount of wind energy that can be harvested in possible target sites. Wind resource assessment traditionally entails deployment of masts equipped for wind speed measurements at several heights for a reasonably long period of time. Simplified linear models of atmospheric flow are then used for a spatial extrapolation of point measurements to a wide area. While linear models have been successfully applied in the wind resource assessment in plains and offshore, their reliability in complex terrain is generally poor. This represents a major limitation to wind resource assessment in Austria, where high-altitude locations are being considered for new plant sites, given the higher frequency of sustained winds at such sites. The limitations of linear models stem from two key assumptions in their formulation, the neutral stratification and attached boundary-layer flow, both of which often break down in complex terrain. Consequently, an accurate modeling of near-surface flow over mountains requires the adoption of a NWP model with high horizontal and vertical resolution. This study explores the wind potential of a site in Styria in the North-Eastern Alps. The WRF model is used for simulations with a maximum horizontal resolution of 800 m. Three nested computational domains are defined, with the innermost one encompassing a stretch of the relatively broad Enns Valley, flanked by the main crest of the Alps in the south and the Nördliche Kalkalpen of similar height in the north. In addition to the simulation results, we use data from fourteen 10-m wind measurement sites (of which 7 are located within valleys and 5 near mountain tops) and from 2 masts with anemometers at several heights (at hillside locations) in an area of 1600 km2 around the target site. The potential for wind energy production is assessed using the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity at hub height. The capacity factor is also evaluated

  6. Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deockho Kim

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the potential sites of wind farms, wind speed data at points of interest are not always available. We apply the Kriging method, which is one of spatial interpolation, to estimate wind speed at potential sites. We also consider a wind profile power law to correct wind speed along the turbine height and terrain characteristics. After that, we used estimated wind speed data to calculate wind power output and select the best wind farm sites using a Weibull distribution. Probability density function (PDF or cumulative density function (CDF is used to estimate the probability of wind speed. The wind speed data is classified along the manufacturer’s power curve data. Therefore, the probability of wind speed is also given in accordance with classified values. The average wind power output is estimated in the form of a confidence interval. The empirical data of meteorological towers from Jeju Island in Korea is used to interpolate the wind speed data spatially at potential sites. Finally, we propose the best wind farm site among the four potential wind farm sites.

  7. Wind resource estimation and siting of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, N.G.; Landberg, L.

    1994-01-01

    Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the natural wind is necessary for the design, planning and operational aspect of wind energy systems. Here, we shall only be concerned with those meteorological aspects of wind energy planning that are termed wind resource estimation. The estimation...... of the wind resource ranges from the overall estimation of the mean energy content of the wind over a large area - called regional assessment - to the prediction of the average yearly energy production of a specific wind turbine at a specific location - called siting. A regional assessment will most often...... lead to a so-called wind atlas. A precise prediction of the wind speed at a given site is essential because for aerodynamic reasons the power output of a wind turbine is proportional to the third power of the wind speed, hence even small errors in prediction of wind speed may result in large deviations...

  8. Climate Wind Power Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana M. Berdzenishvili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgia as a whole is characterized by rather rich solar energy resources, which allows to construct alternative power stations in the close proximity to traditional power plants. In this case the use of solar energy is meant. Georgia is divided into 5 zones based on the assessment of wind power resources. The selection of these zones is based on the index of average annual wind speed in the examined area, V> 3 m / s and V> 5 m / s wind speed by the summing duration in the course of the year and V = 0. . . 2 m / s of passive wind by total and continuous duration of these indices per hour.

  9. Mongolia wind resource assessment project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, D.; Chadraa, B.; Natsagdorj, L.

    1998-01-01

    The development of detailed, regional wind-resource distributions and other pertinent wind resource characteristics (e.g., assessment maps and reliable estimates of seasonal, diurnal, and directional) is an important step in planning and accelerating the deployment of wind energy systems. This paper summarizes the approach and methods being used to conduct a wind energy resource assessment of Mongolia. The primary goals of this project are to develop a comprehensive wind energy resource atlas of Mongolia and to establish a wind measurement program in specific regions of Mongolia to identify prospective sites for wind energy projects and to help validate some of the wind resource estimates. The Mongolian wind resource atlas will include detailed, computerized wind power maps and other valuable wind resource characteristic information for the different regions of Mongolia

  10. Fort Carson Wind Resource Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robichaud, R.

    2012-10-01

    This report focuses on the wind resource assessment, the estimated energy production of wind turbines, and economic potential of a wind turbine project on a ridge in the southeastern portion of the Fort Carson Army base.

  11. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  12. Mexico Wind Resource Assessment Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, M.N.; Elliott, D.L.

    1995-05-01

    A preliminary wind energy resource assessment of Mexico that produced wind resource maps for both utility-scale and rural applications was undertaken as part of the Mexico-U.S. Renewable Energy Cooperation Program. This activity has provided valuable information needed to facilitate the commercialization of small wind turbines and windfarms in Mexico and to lay the groundwork for subsequent wind resource activities. A surface meteorological data set of hourly data in digital form was utilized to prepare a more detailed and accurate wind resource assessment of Mexico than otherwise would have been possible. Software was developed to perform the first ever detailed analysis of the wind characteristics data for over 150 stations in Mexico. The hourly data set was augmented with information from weather balloons (upper-air data), ship wind data from coastal areas, and summarized wind data from sources in Mexico. The various data were carefully evaluated for their usefulness in preparing the wind resource assessment. The preliminary assessment has identified many areas of good-to-excellent wind resource potential and shows that the wind resource in Mexico is considerably greater than shown in previous surveys.

  13. Complex terrain wind resource estimation with the wind-atlas method: Prediction errors using linearized and nonlinear CFD micro-scale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troen, Ib; Bechmann, Andreas; Kelly, Mark C.

    2014-01-01

    Using the Wind Atlas methodology to predict the average wind speed at one location from measured climatological wind frequency distributions at another nearby location we analyse the relative prediction errors using a linearized flow model (IBZ) and a more physically correct fully non-linear 3D...... flow model (CFD) for a number of sites in very complex terrain (large terrain slopes). We first briefly describe the Wind Atlas methodology as implemented in WAsP and the specifics of the “classical” model setup and the new setup allowing the use of the CFD computation engine. We discuss some known...

  14. Offshore wind resource estimation for wind energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Badger, Merete; Mouche, A.

    2010-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing from active and passive microwave instruments is used to estimate the offshore wind resource in the Northern European Seas in the EU-Norsewind project. The satellite data include 8 years of Envisat ASAR, 10 years of QuikSCAT, and 23 years of SSM/I. The satellite observati......Satellite remote sensing from active and passive microwave instruments is used to estimate the offshore wind resource in the Northern European Seas in the EU-Norsewind project. The satellite data include 8 years of Envisat ASAR, 10 years of QuikSCAT, and 23 years of SSM/I. The satellite...... observations are compared to selected offshore meteorological masts in the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The overall aim of the Norsewind project is a state-of-the-art wind atlas at 100 m height. The satellite winds are all valid at 10 m above sea level. Extrapolation to higher heights is a challenge. Mesoscale...... modeling of the winds at hub height will be compared to data from wind lidars observing at 100 m above sea level. Plans are also to compare mesoscale model results and satellite-based estimates of the offshore wind resource....

  15. Wind conditions and resource assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Troen, Ib

    2012-01-01

    The development of wind power as a competitive energy source requires resource assessment of increasing accuracy and detail (including not only the long-term ‘raw’ wind resource, but also turbulence, shear, and extremes), and in areas of increasing complexity. This in turn requires the use of the...

  16. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; Scott, G.; McCarthy, E.

    2001-03-06

    This report contains the results of a wind resource analysis and mapping study for the Philippine archipelago. The study's objective was to identify potential wind resource areas and quantify the value of those resources within those areas. The wind resource maps and other wind resource characteristic information will be used to identify prospective areas for wind-energy applications.

  17. Wind resource analysis. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, D. M.

    1978-12-01

    FY78 results of the Wind Resource Analyses task of the ERAB are described. Initial steps were taken to acquire modern atmosphere models of near-surface wind flow and primary data sets used in previous studies of national and regional wind resources. Because numerous assumptions are necessary to interpret available data in terms of wind energy potential, conclusions of previous studies differ considerably. These data analyses may be improved by future SERI research. State-of-the-art atmosphere models are a necessary component of the SERI wind resource analyses capacity. However, these methods also need to be tested and verified in diverse applications. The primary data sets and principal features of the models are discussed.

  18. Connecting Communities to Wind Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baring-Gould, Edward I [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-18

    WINDExchange is the platform for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Wind Energy Technologies Office to disseminate credible wind energy information on a national level. Stakeholder engagement and outreach activities are designed to enable well-informed decisions about appropriate wind energy deployment. WINDExchange focuses on wind energy outreach at the national level while managing and supporting similar regional efforts through the implementation of DOE Regional Resource Centers (RRCs). This fact sheet provides an overview of DOE's WINDExchange initiative and the RRCs. Examples of RRC activities are provided.

  19. Philippines Wind Energy Resource Atlas Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.

    2000-11-29

    This paper describes the creation of a comprehensive wind energy resource atlas for the Philippines. The atlas was created to facilitate the rapid identification of good wind resource areas and understanding of the salient wind characteristics. Detailed wind resource maps were generated for the entire country using an advanced wind mapping technique and innovative assessment methods recently developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

  20. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of Armenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; George, R.

    2003-07-01

    This wind energy resource atlas identifies the wind characteristics and distribution of the wind resource in the country of Armenia. The detailed wind resource maps and other information contained in the atlas facilitate the identification of prospective areas for use of wind energy technologies for utility-scale power generation and off-grid wind energy applications. The maps portray the wind resource with high-resolution (1-km2) grids of wind power density at 50-m above ground. The wind maps were created at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using a computerized wind mapping system that uses Geographic Information System (GIS) software.

  1. FY 1998 Report on development of large-scale wind power generation systems. Feasibility study on development of new technologies for wind power generation, and study on local wind resource prediction model; 1998 nendo ogata furyoku hatsuden system kaihatsu seika hokokusho. Furyoku hatsuden shingijutsu kaihatsu kanosei chosa (kyokusho fukyo yosoku shuho ni kansuru chosa)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Described herein are the FY 1998 results of the study on local wind resource prediction model. The local wind resource prediction models developed so far apply the solutions based on the existing linear models (WASP and AVENU) for relatively flat terrain. These models are studied for their applicability limits. The study covers wind direction and speed patterns of the surface wind and upper winds at 3 sites in Hokkaido, Fukushima Pref. and Shizuoka Pref. The surface winds are found to be correlated with the upper winds both for wind direction and wind speed in almost all cases. Next, wind resources simulations are carried out for each of the classified weather patterns using the existing models, and the prediction errors are studied. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the existing linear models is highly dependent on inputs of observed data, and that the accuracy tends to decrease for the situations where the upper and surface wind conditions greatly differ from each other, as in the case of a land and sea breeze of thermal origin. It is also confirmed that prediction accuracy is lower on complex terrain than on flat terrain. (NEDO)

  2. Wind/solar resource in Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, V.; Starcher, K.; Gaines, H. [West Texas A& M Univ., Canyon, TX (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Data are being collected at 17 sites to delineate a baseline for the wind and solar resource across Texas. Wind data are being collected at 10, 25, and 40 m (in some cases at 50 m) to determine wind shear and power at hub heights of large turbines. Many of the sites are located in areas of predicted terrain enhancement. The typical day in a month for power and wind turbine output was calculated for selected sites and combination of sites; distributed systems. Major result to date is that there is the possibility of load matching in South Texas during the summer months, even though the average values by month indicate a low wind potential.

  3. Wind speed forecasting in the central California wind resource area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCarthy, E.F. [Wind Economics & Technology, Inc., Martinez, CA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    A wind speed forecasting program was implemented in the summer seasons of 1985 - 87 in the Central California Wind Resource Area (WRA). The forecasting program is designed to use either meteorological observations from the WRA and local upper air observations or upper air observations alone to predict the daily average windspeed at two locations. Forecasts are made each morning at 6 AM and are valid for a 24 hour period. Ease of use is a hallmark of the program as the daily forecast can be made using data entered into a programmable HP calculator. The forecasting program was the first step in a process to examine whether the electrical energy output of an entire wind power generation facility or defined subsections of the same facility could be predicted up to 24 hours in advance. Analysis of the results of the summer season program using standard forecast verification techniques show the program has skill over persistence and climatology.

  4. Wind farms production: Control and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

    Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect

  5. Wind Resource Assessment of Gujarat (India)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Purkayastha, A.; Parker, Z.

    2014-07-01

    India is one of the largest wind energy markets in the world. In 1986 Gujarat was the first Indian state to install a wind power project. In February 2013, the installed wind capacity in Gujarat was 3,093 MW. Due to the uncertainty around existing wind energy assessments in India, this analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the wind at current hub heights for one year to provide more precise estimates of wind resources in Gujarat. The WRF model allows for accurate simulations of winds near the surface and at heights important for wind energy purposes. While previous resource assessments published wind power density, we focus on average wind speeds, which can be converted to wind power densities by the user with methods of their choice. The wind resource estimates in this study show regions with average annual wind speeds of more than 8 m/s.

  6. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of Oaxaca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; George, R.

    2003-08-01

    The Oaxaca Wind Resource Atlas, produced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) wind resource group, is the result of an extensive mapping study for the Mexican State of Oaxaca. This atlas identifies the wind characteristics and distribution of the wind resource in Oaxaca. The detailed wind resource maps and other information contained in the atlas facilitate the identification of prospective areas for use of wind energy technologies, both for utility-scale power generation and off-grid wind energy applications.

  7. European Wind Atlas and Wind Resource Research in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling

    to estimate the actual wind climate at any specific site and height within this region. The Danish and European Wind Atlases are examples of how the wind atlas methodology can be employed to estimate the wind resource potential for a country or a sub-continent. Recently, the methodology has also been used...... - from wind measurements at prospective sites to wind tunnel simulations and advanced flow modelling. Among these approaches, the wind atlas methodology - developed at Ris0 National Laboratory over the last 25 years - has gained widespread recognition and is presently considered by many as the industry......-standard tool for wind resource assessment and siting of wind turbines. The PC-implementation of the methodology, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP), has been applied in more than 70 countries and territories world-wide. The wind atlas methodology is based on physical descriptions and models...

  8. Wind class sampling of satellite SAR imagery for offshore wind resource mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Merete; Badger, Jake; Nielsen, Morten

    2010-01-01

    developed for mesoscale modeling of wind resources. Its performance in connection with sampling of SAR scenes is tested against two sets of random SAR samples and meteorological observations at three sites in the North Sea during 2005–08. Predictions of the mean wind speed and the Weibull scale parameter......High-resolution wind fields retrieved from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery are combined for mapping of wind resources offshore where site measurements are costly and sparse. A new sampling strategy for the SAR scenes is introduced, based on a method for statistical......-dynamical downscaling of large-scale wind conditions using a set of wind classes that describe representative wind situations. One or more SAR scenes are then selected to represent each wind class and the classes are weighted according to their frequency of occurrence. The wind class methodology was originally...

  9. Wind resource characterization in the Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Yip, Chak Man Andrew; Gunturu, Udaya; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-01-01

    Wind energy is expected to contribute to alleviating the rise in energy demand in the Middle East that is driven by population growth and industrial development. However, variability and intermittency in the wind resource present significant

  10. Calculation of depleted wind resources near wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten

    2015-01-01

    Traditional wind resource maps include wind distribution, energy density and potential power production without wake effects. Adding wake effect to such maps is feasible by means of a new method based on Fourier transformation,and the extra computational work is comparable to that of the basic wind...

  11. Wind Resource Estimation using QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Zhang, Guosheng; Cheng, Yongcun

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the offshore wind resources in the East China Sea and South China Sea were estimated from over ten years of QuikSCAT scatterometer wind products. Since the errors of these products are larger close to the coast due to the land contamination of radar backscatter signal...... and the complexity of air-sea interaction processes, an empirical relationship that adjusts QuikSCAT winds in coastal waters was first proposed based on vessel measurements. Then the shape and scale parameters of Weibull function are determined for wind resource estimation. The wind roses are also plotted. Results...

  12. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  13. The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale. PMID:24988222

  14. The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

  15. The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willow Hallgren

    Full Text Available Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

  16. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of Mongolia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D; Schwartz, M; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; George, R.

    2001-08-27

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) sponsored a project to help accelerate the large-scale use of wind energy technologies in Mongolia through the development of a wind energy resource atlas of Mongolia. DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) administered and conducted this project in collaboration with USAID and Mongolia. The Mongolian organizations participating in this project were the Scientific, Production, and Trade Corporation for Renewable Energy (REC) and the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH). The primary goals of the project were to develop detailed wind resource maps for all regions of Mongolia for a comprehensive wind resource atlas, and to establish a wind-monitoring program to identify prospective sites for wind energy projects and help validate some of the wind resource estimates.

  17. Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment for Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doubrawa Moreira, Paula [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Scott, George N. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Musial, Walter D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kilcher, Levi F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Draxl, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This report quantifies Alaska's offshore wind resource capacity while focusing on its unique nature. It is a supplement to the existing U.S. Offshore Wind Resource Assessment, which evaluated the offshore wind resource for all other U.S. states. Together, these reports provide the foundation for the nation's offshore wind value proposition. Both studies were developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The analysis presented herein represents the first quantitative evidence of the offshore wind energy potential of Alaska. The technical offshore wind resource area in Alaska is larger than the technical offshore resource area of all other coastal U.S. states combined. Despite the abundant wind resource available, significant challenges inhibit large-scale offshore wind deployment in Alaska, such as the remoteness of the resource, its distance from load centers, and the wealth of land available for onshore wind development. Throughout this report, the energy landscape of Alaska is reviewed and a resource assessment analysis is performed in terms of gross and technical offshore capacity and energy potential.

  18. Wind resource characterization in the Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Yip, Chak Man Andrew

    2015-12-28

    Wind energy is expected to contribute to alleviating the rise in energy demand in the Middle East that is driven by population growth and industrial development. However, variability and intermittency in the wind resource present significant challenges to grid integration of wind energy systems. These issues are rarely addressed in the literature of wind resource assessment in the Middle East due to sparse meteorological observations with varying record lengths. In this study, the wind field with consistent space–time resolution for over three decades at three hub heights (50m, 80m, 140m) over the whole Arabian Peninsula is constructed using the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset. The wind resource is assessed at a higher spatial resolution with metrics of temporal variations in the wind than in prior studies. Previously unrecognized locations of interest with high wind abundance and low variability and intermittency have been identified in this study and confirmed by recent on-site observations. In particular, the western mountains of Saudi Arabia experience more abundant wind resource than most Red Sea coastal areas. The wind resource is more variable in coastal areas along the Arabian Gulf than their Red Sea counterparts at a similar latitude. Persistent wind is found along the coast of the Arabian Gulf.

  19. A detailed and verified wind resource atlas for Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mortensen, N G; Landberg, L; Rathmann, O; Nielsen, M N [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Nielsen, P [Energy and Environmental Data, Aalberg (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    A detailed and reliable wind resource atlas covering the entire land area of Denmark has been established. Key words of the methodology are wind atlas analysis, interpolation of wind atlas data sets, automated generation of digital terrain descriptions and modelling of local wind climates. The atlas contains wind speed and direction distributions, as well as mean energy densities of the wind, for 12 sectors and four heights above ground level: 25, 45, 70 and 100 m. The spatial resolution is 200 meters in the horizontal. The atlas has been verified by comparison with actual wind turbine power productions from over 1200 turbines. More than 80% of these turbines were predicted to within 10%. The atlas will become available on CD-ROM and on the Internet. (au)

  20. Wind resource modelling for micro-siting - Validation at a 60-MW wind farm site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, J C; Gylling Mortensen, N [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Said, U S [New and Renewable Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1999-03-01

    This paper investigates and validates the applicability of the WAsP-model for layout optimization and micro-siting of wind turbines at a given site for a 60-MW wind farm at Zafarana at the Gulf of Suez in Egypt. Previous investigations show large gradients in the wind climate within the area. For the design and optimization of the wind farm it was found necessary to verify the WAsP extrapolation of wind atlas results from 2 existing meteorological masts located 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. On-site measurements at the 3.5 x 3.5 km{sup 2} wind farm site in combination with 7 years of near-site wind atlas measurements offer significant amounts of data for verification of wind conditions for micro-siting. Wind speeds, wind directions, turbulence intensities and guests in 47.5 m a.g.l. have been measured at 9 locations across the site. Additionally, one of the site masts is equipped as a reference mast, measuring both vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature as well as air pressure and temperature. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that winds are highly uni-directional; the north direction accounting for 80-90% of the wind resource. The paper presents comparisons of 5 months of on-site measurements and modeled predictions from 2 existing meteorological masts located at distances of 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. Predictions based on terrain descriptions of the Wind Atlas for the Gulf of Suez 1991-95 showed over-predictions of wind speeds of 4-10%. With calibrated terrain descriptions, made based on measured data and a re-visit to critical parts of the terrain, the average prediction error of wind speeds was reduced to about 1%. These deviations are smaller than generally expected for such wind resource modeling, clearly documenting the validity of using WAsP modeling for micro-siting and layout optimization of the wind farm. (au)

  1. Wind and solar resource data sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clifton, Andrew; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Draxl, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    The range of resource data sets spans from static cartography showing the mean annual wind speed or solar irradiance across a region to high temporal and high spatial resolution products that provide detailed information at a potential wind or solar energy facility. These data sets are used...... to support continental-scale, national, or regional renewable energy development; facilitate prospecting by developers; and enable grid integration studies. This review first provides an introduction to the wind and solar resource data sets, then provides an overview of the common methods used...... for their creation and validation. A brief history of wind and solar resource data sets is then presented, followed by areas for future research. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website....

  2. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of Sri Lanka and the Maldives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; George, R.

    2003-08-01

    The Wind Energy Resource Atlas of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, produced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) wind resource group identifies the wind characteristics and distribution of the wind resource in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. The detailed wind resource maps and other information contained in the atlas facilitate the identification of prospective areas for use of wind energy technologies, both for utility-scale power generation and off-grid wind energy applications.

  3. On the Predictability of Hub Height Winds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline

    Wind energy is a major source of power in over 70 countries across the world, and the worldwide share of wind energy in electricity consumption is growing. The introduction of signicant amounts of wind energy into power systems makes accurate wind forecasting a crucial element of modern electrical...... grids. These systems require forecasts with temporal scales of tens of minutes to a few days in advance at wind farm locations. Traditionally these forecasts predict the wind at turbine hub heights; this information is then converted by transmission system operators and energy companies into predictions...... of power output at wind farms. Since the power available in the wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, even small wind forecast errors result in large power prediction errors. Accurate wind forecasts are worth billions of dollars annually; forecast improvements will result in reduced costs...

  4. Estimating near-shore wind resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier Ralph; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Peña, Alfredo

    An evaluation and sensitivity study using the WRF mesoscale model to estimate the wind in a coastal area is performed using a unique data set consisting of scanning, profiling and floating lidars. The ability of the WRF model to represent the wind speed was evaluated by running the model for a four...... grid spacings were performed for each of the two schemes. An evaluation of the wind profile using vertical profilers revealed small differences in modelled mean wind speed between the different set-ups, with the YSU scheme predicting slightly higher mean wind speeds. Larger differences between...... the different simulations were observed when comparing the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between modelled and measured wind, with the ERA interim-based simulations having the lowest errors. The simulations with finer horizontal grid spacing had a larger MSE. Horizontal transects of mean wind speed across...

  5. Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yagang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

  6. Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppock, David C; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia

    2010-11-15

    The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.

  7. Wind power error estimation in resource assessments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Rodríguez

    Full Text Available Estimating the power output is one of the elements that determine the techno-economic feasibility of a renewable project. At present, there is a need to develop reliable methods that achieve this goal, thereby contributing to wind power penetration. In this study, we propose a method for wind power error estimation based on the wind speed measurement error, probability density function, and wind turbine power curves. This method uses the actual wind speed data without prior statistical treatment based on 28 wind turbine power curves, which were fitted by Lagrange's method, to calculate the estimate wind power output and the corresponding error propagation. We found that wind speed percentage errors of 10% were propagated into the power output estimates, thereby yielding an error of 5%. The proposed error propagation complements the traditional power resource assessments. The wind power estimation error also allows us to estimate intervals for the power production leveled cost or the investment time return. The implementation of this method increases the reliability of techno-economic resource assessment studies.

  8. Wind power error estimation in resource assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Osvaldo; Del Río, Jesús A; Jaramillo, Oscar A; Martínez, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the power output is one of the elements that determine the techno-economic feasibility of a renewable project. At present, there is a need to develop reliable methods that achieve this goal, thereby contributing to wind power penetration. In this study, we propose a method for wind power error estimation based on the wind speed measurement error, probability density function, and wind turbine power curves. This method uses the actual wind speed data without prior statistical treatment based on 28 wind turbine power curves, which were fitted by Lagrange's method, to calculate the estimate wind power output and the corresponding error propagation. We found that wind speed percentage errors of 10% were propagated into the power output estimates, thereby yielding an error of 5%. The proposed error propagation complements the traditional power resource assessments. The wind power estimation error also allows us to estimate intervals for the power production leveled cost or the investment time return. The implementation of this method increases the reliability of techno-economic resource assessment studies.

  9. Wind power production: from the characterisation of the wind resource to wind turbine technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beslin, Guy; Multon, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Illustrated by graphs and tables, this article first describes the various factors and means related to the assessment of wind resource in the World, in Europe, and the factors which characterize a local wind resource. In this last respect, the authors indicate how local topography is taken into account to calculate wind speed, how time variations are taken into account (at the yearly, seasonal or daily level), the different methods used to model a local wind resource, how to assess the power recoverable by a wind turbine with horizontal axis (notion of Betz limit). In the second part, the authors present the different wind turbines, their benefits and drawbacks: vertical axis, horizontal axis (examples of a Danish-type wind turbine, of wind turbines designed for extreme conditions). Then, they address the technology of big wind turbines: evolution of technology and of commercial offer, aerodynamic characteristics of wind turbine and benefit of a varying speed (technological solutions, importance of the electric generator). They describe how to choose a wind turbine, how product lines are organised, how the power curve and energy capacity are determined. The issue of integration of wind energy into the power system is then addressed. The next part addressed the economy of wind energy production (annualized production cost, order of magnitude of wind electric power production cost). Future trends are discussed and offshore wind energy production is briefly addressed

  10. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

  11. Development of distributed topographical forecasting model for wind resource assessment using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayana, P.B. [Green Life Energy Solutions LLP, Secunderabad (India); Rao, S.S. [National Institute of Technology. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Warangal (India); Reddy, K.H. [JNT Univ.. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Anantapur (India)

    2012-07-01

    Economics of wind power projects largely depend on the availability of wind power density. Wind resource assessment is a study estimating wind speeds and wind power densities in the region under consideration. The accuracy and reliability of data sets comprising of wind speeds and wind power densities at different heights per topographic region characterized by elevation or mean sea level, is important for wind power projects. Indian Wind Resource Assessment program conducted in 80's consisted of wind data measured by monitoring stations at different topographies in order to measure wind power density values at 25 and 50 meters above the ground level. In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess wind resource at a given location using artificial neural networks. Existing wind resource data has been used to train the neural networks. Location topography (characterized by longitude, latitude and mean sea level), air density, mean annual wind speed (MAWS) are used as inputs to the neural network. Mean annual wind power density (MAWPD) in watt/m{sup 2} is predicted for a new topographic location. Simple back propagation based neural network has been found to be sufficient for predicting these values with suitable accuracy. This model is closely linked to the problem of wind energy forecasting considering the variations of specific atmospheric variables with time horizons. This model will help the wind farm developers to have an initial estimation of the wind energy potential at a particular topography. (Author)

  12. NANA Wind Resource Assessment Program Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jay Hermanson

    2010-09-23

    NANA Regional Corporation (NRC) of northwest Alaska is located in an area with abundant wind energy resources. In 2007, NRC was awarded grant DE-FG36-07GO17076 by the US Department of Energy's Tribal Energy Program for funding a Wind Resource Assessment Project (WRAP) for the NANA region. The NANA region, including Kotzebue Electric Association (KEA) and Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC) have been national leaders at developing, designing, building, and operating wind-diesel hybrid systems in Kotzebue (starting in 1996) and Selawik (2002). Promising sites for the development of new wind energy projects in the region have been identified by the WRAP, including Buckland, Deering, and the Kivalina/Red Dog Mine Port Area. Ambler, Shungnak, Kobuk, Kiana, Noorvik & Noatak were determined to have poor wind resources at sites in or very near each community. However, all five of these communities may have better wind resources atop hills or at sites with slightly higher elevations several miles away.

  13. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Drisya

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  14. Wind energy resource atlas. Volume 9. The Southwest Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, R.L.; Norman, G.T.; Elliott, D.L.; Barchet, W.R.; George, R.L.

    1980-11-01

    This atlas of the wind energy resource is composed of introductory and background information, a regional summary of the wind resource, and assessments of the wind resource in Nevada and California. Background on how the wind resource is assessed and on how the results of the assessment should be interpreted is presented. A description of the wind resource on a regional scale is then given. The results of the wind energy assessments for each state are assembled into an overview and summary of the various features of the regional wind energy resource. An introduction and outline to the descriptions of the wind resource given for each state are given. Assessments for individual states are presented as separate chapters. The state wind energy resources are described in greater detail than is the regional wind energy resource, and features of selected stations are discussed.

  15. State of the Art and Trends in Wind Resource Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Probst

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Given the significant rise of the utilization of wind energy the accurate assessment of the wind potential is becoming increasingly important. Direct applications of wind assessment techniques include the creation of wind maps on a local scale (typically 5 20 km and the micrositing of wind turbines, the estimation of vertical wind speed variations, prospecting on a regional scale (>100 km, estimation of the long-term wind resource at a given site, and forecasting. The measurement of wind speed and direction still widely relies on cup anemometers, though sonic anemometers are becoming increasingly popular. Moreover, remote sensing by Doppler techniques using the backscattering of either sonic beams (SODAR or light (LIDAR allowing for vertical profiling well beyond hub height are quickly moving into the mainstream. Local wind maps are based on the predicted modification of the regional wind flow pattern by the local atmospheric boundary layer which in turn depends on both topographic and roughness features and the measured wind rose obtained from one or several measurement towers within the boundaries of the planned development site. Initial models were based on linearized versions of the Navier-Stokes equations, whereas more recently full CFD models have been applied to wind farm micrositing. Linear models tend to perform well for terrain slopes lower than about 25% and have the advantage of short execution times. Long-term performance is frequently estimated from correlations with nearby reference stations with concurrent information and continuous time series over a period of at least 10 years. Simple methods consider only point-to-point linear correlations; more advanced methods like multiple regression techniques and methods based on the theory of distributions will be discussed. Both for early prospecting in regions where only scarce or unreliable reference information is available, wind flow modeling on a larger scale (mesoscale is becoming

  16. Wind energy resource assessment in Madrid region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Migoya, Emilio; Crespo, Antonio; Jimenez, Angel; Garcia, Javier; Manuel, Fernando [Laboratorio de Mecanica de Fluidos, Departamento de Ingenieria Energetica y Fluidomecanica, Escuela Tecnica Superior Ingenieros Industriales (ETSII), Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (UPM), C/Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2-28006, Madrid (Spain)

    2007-07-15

    The Comunidad Autonoma de Madrid (Autonomous Community of Madrid, in the following Madrid Region), is a region located at the geographical centre of the Iberian Peninsula. Its area is 8.028 km{sup 2}, and its population about five million people. The Department of Economy and Technological Innovation of the Madrid Region, together with some organizations dealing on energy saving and other research institutions have elaborated an Energy Plan for the 2004-12 period. As a part of this work, the Fluid Mechanics Laboratory of the Superior Technical School of Industrial Engineers of the Polytechnic University of Madrid has carried out the assessment of the wind energy resources [Crespo A, Migoya E, Gomez Elvira R. La energia eolica en Madrid. Potencialidad y prospectiva. Plan energetico de la Comunidad de Madrid, 2004-2012. Madrid: Comunidad Autonoma de Madrid; 2004]; using for this task the WAsP program (Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program), and the own codes, UPMORO (code to study orography effects) and UPMPARK (code to study wake effects in wind parks). Different kinds of data have been collected about climate, topography, roughness of the land, environmentally protected areas, town and village distribution, population density, main facilities and electric power supply. The Spanish National Meteorological Institute has nine wind measurement stations in the region, but only four of them have good and reliable temporary wind data, with time measurement periods that are long enough to provide representative correlations among stations. The Observed Wind Climates of the valid meteorological stations have been made. The Wind Atlas and the resource grid have been calculated, especially in the high wind resource areas, selecting appropriate measurements stations and using criteria based on proximity, similarity and ruggedness index. Some areas cannot be used as a wind energy resource mainly because they have environmental regulation or, in some cases, are very close

  17. Evaluation model of wind energy resources and utilization efficiency of wind farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jie

    2018-04-01

    Due to the large amount of abandoned winds in wind farms, the establishment of a wind farm evaluation model is particularly important for the future development of wind farms In this essay, consider the wind farm's wind energy situation, Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) and Wind Energy Utilization Efficiency Model(WEUEM) are established to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the wind farm. Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) contains average wind speed, average wind power density and turbulence intensity, which assessed wind energy resources together. Based on our model, combined with the actual measurement data of a wind farm, calculate the indicators using the model, and the results are in line with the actual situation. We can plan the future development of the wind farm based on this result. Thus, the proposed establishment approach of wind farm assessment model has application value.

  18. Nebraska wind resource assessment first year results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurley, P.J.F.; Vilhauer, R. [RLA Consulting, Inc., Bothell, WA (United States); Stooksbury, D. [Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents the preliminary results from a wind resource assessment program in Nebraska sponsored by the Nebraska Power Association. During the first year the measured annual wind speed at 40 meters ranged from 6.5 - 7.5 m/s (14.6 - 16.8 mph) at eight stations across the state. The site selection process is discussed as well as an overview of the site characteristics at the monitoring locations. Results from the first year monitoring period including data recovery rate, directionality, average wind speeds, wind shear, and turbulence intensity are presented. Results from the eight sites are qualitatively compared with other midwest and west coast locations. 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Distributed Wind Resource Assessment: State of the Industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, Jason [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tinnesand, Heidi [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-06-01

    In support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Office (WWPTO) goals, researchers from DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) are investigating the Distributed Wind Resource Assessment (DWRA) process, which includes pre-construction energy estimation as well as turbine site suitability assessment. DWRA can have a direct impact on the Wind Program goals of maximizing stakeholder confidence in turbine performance and safety as well as reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). One of the major components of the LCOE equation is annual energy production. DWRA improvements can maximize the annual energy production, thereby lowering the overall LCOE and improving stakeholder confidence in the distributed wind technology sector by providing more accurate predictions of power production. Over the long term, one of the most significant benefits of a more defined DWRA process could be new turbine designs, tuned to site-specific characteristics that will help the distributed wind industry follow a similar trajectory to the low-wind-speed designs in the utility-scale industry sector. By understanding the wind resource better, the industry could install larger rotors, capture more energy, and as a result, increase deployment while lowering the LCOE. a direct impact on the Wind Program goals of maximizing stakeholder confidence in turbine performance and safety as well as reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). One of the major components of the LCOE equation is annual energy production. DWRA improvements can maximize the annual energy production, thereby lowering the overall LCOE and improving stakeholder confidence in the distributed wind technology sector by providing more accurate predictions of power production. Over the long term, one of the most significant benefits of a more defined DWRA process could be new turbine designs, tuned to site-specific characteristics that

  20. Computer modelling of the UK wind energy resource: UK wind speed data package and user manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, S F; Ravenscroft, F

    1993-12-31

    A software package has been developed for IBM-PC or true compatibles. It is designed to provide easy access to the results of a programme of work to estimate the UK wind energy resource. Mean wind speed maps and quantitative resource estimates were obtained using the NOABL mesoscale (1 km resolution) numerical model for the prediction of wind flow over complex terrain. NOABL was used in conjunction with digitised terrain data and wind data from surface meteorological stations for a ten year period (1975-1984) to provide digital UK maps of mean wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level. Also included in the derivation of these maps was the use of the Engineering Science Data Unit (ESDU) method to model the effect on wind speed of the abrupt change in surface roughness that occurs at the coast. With the wind speed software package, the user is able to obtain a display of the modelled wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level for any location in the UK. The required co-ordinates are simply supplied by the user, and the package displays the selected wind speed. This user manual summarises the methodology used in the generation of these UK maps and shows computer generated plots of the 25m wind speeds in 200 x 200 km regions covering the whole UK. The uncertainties inherent in the derivation of these maps are also described, and notes given on their practical usage. The present study indicated that 23% of the UK land area had speeds over 6 m/s, with many hill sites having 10m speeds over 10 m/s. It is concluded that these `first order` resource estimates represent a substantial improvement over the presently available `zero order` estimates. (18 figures, 3 tables, 6 references). (author)

  1. Wind resource in metropolitan France: assessment methods, variability and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jourdier, Benedicte

    2015-01-01

    France has one of the largest wind potentials in Europe, yet far from being fully exploited. The wind resource and energy yield assessment is a key step before building a wind farm, aiming at predicting the future electricity production. Any over-estimation in the assessment process puts in jeopardy the project's profitability. This has been the case in the recent years, when wind farm managers have noticed that they produced less than expected. The under-production problem leads to questioning both the validity of the assessment methods and the inter-annual wind variability. This thesis tackles these two issues. In a first part are investigated the errors linked to the assessment methods, especially in two steps: the vertical extrapolation of wind measurements and the statistical modelling of wind-speed data by a Weibull distribution. The second part investigates the inter-annual to decadal variability of wind speeds, in order to understand how this variability may have contributed to the under-production and so that it is better taken into account in the future. (author) [fr

  2. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  3. Wind Resource Assessment – Østerild National Test Centre for Large Wind Turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Brian Ohrbeck; Courtney, Michael; Mortensen, Niels Gylling

    2014-01-01

    This report presents a wind resource assessment for the seven test stands at the Østerild National Test Centre for Large Wind Turbines in Denmark. Calculations have been carried out mainly using wind data from three on-site wind lidars. The generalized wind climates applied in the wind resource calculations for the seven test stands are based on correlations between a short period of on-site wind data from the wind lidars with a long-term reference. The wind resource assessment for the seven ...

  4. Wind Resource Atlas of Oaxaca (CD-ROM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; George, R.

    2003-08-01

    The CD version of the Oaxaca Wind Resource Atlas, produced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) wind resource group, is the result of an extensive mapping study for the Mexican State of Oaxaca. This atlas identifies the wind characteristics and distribution of the wind resource in Oaxaca. The detailed wind resource maps and other information contained in the atlas facilitate the identification of prospective areas for use of wind energy technologies, both for utility-scale power generation and off-grid wind energy applications.

  5. Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using accurate inputs of wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment, as predicted power is proportional to the wind speed cubed. This study outlines a methodology for combining multiple ocean satellite winds and winds from WRF simulations in order to acquire the accurate reconstructed offshore winds which can be used for offshore wind resource assessment. First, wind speeds retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and Scatterometer ASCAT images were validated against in situ measurements from seven coastal meteorological stations in South China Sea (SCS. The wind roses from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS and ASCAT agree well with these observations from the corresponding in situ measurements. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based (ASCAT-based wind speed for the whole co-located samples show a standard deviation (SD of 2.09 m/s (1.83 m/s and correlation coefficient of R 0.75 (0.80. When the offshore winds (i.e., winds directed from land to sea are excluded, the comparison results for wind speeds show an improvement of SD and R, indicating that the satellite data are more credible over the open ocean. Meanwhile, the validation of satellite winds against the same co-located mast observations shows a satisfactory level of accuracy which was similar for SAR and ASCAT winds. These satellite winds are then assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Model by WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA system. Finally, the wind resource statistics at 100 m height based on the reconstructed winds have been achieved over the study area, which fully combines the offshore wind information from multiple satellite data and numerical model. The findings presented here may be useful in future wind resource assessment based on satellite data.

  6. Wind resource assessment in heterogeneous terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderwel, C.; Placidi, M.; Ganapathisubramani, B.

    2017-03-01

    High-resolution particle image velocimetry data obtained in rough-wall boundary layer experiments are re-analysed to examine the influence of surface roughness heterogeneities on wind resource. Two different types of heterogeneities are examined: (i) surfaces with repeating roughness units of the order of the boundary layer thickness (Placidi & Ganapathisubramani. 2015 J. Fluid Mech. 782, 541-566. (doi:10.1017/jfm.2015.552)) and (ii) surfaces with streamwise-aligned elevated strips that mimic adjacent hills and valleys (Vanderwel & Ganapathisubramani. 2015 J. Fluid Mech. 774, 1-12. (doi:10.1017/jfm.2015.228)). For the first case, the data show that the power extraction potential is highly dependent on the surface morphology with a variation of up to 20% in the available wind resource across the different surfaces examined. A strong correlation is shown to exist between the frontal and plan solidities of the rough surfaces and the equivalent wind speed, and hence the wind resource potential. These differences are also found in profiles of graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="RSTA20160109IM1"/> and graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="RSTA20160109IM2"/> (where U is the streamwise velocity), which act as proxies for thrust and power output. For the second case, the secondary flows that cause low- and high-momentum pathways when the spacing between adjacent hills is beyond a critical value result in significant variations in wind resource availability. Contour maps of graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="RSTA20160109IM3"/> and graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="RSTA20160109IM4"/> show a large difference in thrust and power potential (over 50%) between hills and valleys (at a fixed vertical height). These variations do not seem to be present when adjacent hills are close to each other (i.e. when the spacing is much less than the boundary layer thickness). The

  7. Wind and solar resource data sets: Wind and solar resource data sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clifton, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA; Hodge, Bri-Mathias [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA; Power Systems Engineering Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA; Draxl, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA; National Wind Technology Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA; Badger, Jake [Department of Wind Energy, Danish Technical University, Copenhagen Denmark; Habte, Aron [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA; Power Systems Engineering Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO USA

    2017-12-05

    The range of resource data sets spans from static cartography showing the mean annual wind speed or solar irradiance across a region to high temporal and high spatial resolution products that provide detailed information at a potential wind or solar energy facility. These data sets are used to support continental-scale, national, or regional renewable energy development; facilitate prospecting by developers; and enable grid integration studies. This review first provides an introduction to the wind and solar resource data sets, then provides an overview of the common methods used for their creation and validation. A brief history of wind and solar resource data sets is then presented, followed by areas for future research.

  8. 2016 Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment for the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Musial, Walt [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Beiter, Philipp [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Scott, George [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Draxl, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report, the 2016 Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment for the United States, was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and updates a previous national resource assessment study, and refines and reaffirms that the available wind resource is sufficient for offshore wind to be a large-scale contributor to the nation's electric energy supply.

  9. A high resolution global wind atlas - improving estimation of world wind resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    to population centres, electrical transmission grids, terrain types, and protected land areas are important parts of the resource assessment downstream of the generation of wind climate statistics. Related to these issues of integration are the temporal characteristics and spatial correlation of the wind...... resources. These aspects will also be addressed by the Global Wind Atlas. The Global Wind Atlas, through a transparent methodology, will provide a unified, high resolution, and public domain dataset of wind energy resources for the whole world. The wind atlas data will be the most appropriate wind resource...

  10. Using machine learning to predict wind turbine power output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clifton, A; Kilcher, L; Lundquist, J K; Fleming, P

    2013-01-01

    Wind turbine power output is known to be a strong function of wind speed, but is also affected by turbulence and shear. In this work, new aerostructural simulations of a generic 1.5 MW turbine are used to rank atmospheric influences on power output. Most significant is the hub height wind speed, followed by hub height turbulence intensity and then wind speed shear across the rotor disk. These simulation data are used to train regression trees that predict the turbine response for any combination of wind speed, turbulence intensity, and wind shear that might be expected at a turbine site. For a randomly selected atmospheric condition, the accuracy of the regression tree power predictions is three times higher than that from the traditional power curve methodology. The regression tree method can also be applied to turbine test data and used to predict turbine performance at a new site. No new data are required in comparison to the data that are usually collected for a wind resource assessment. Implementing the method requires turbine manufacturers to create a turbine regression tree model from test site data. Such an approach could significantly reduce bias in power predictions that arise because of the different turbulence and shear at the new site, compared to the test site. (letter)

  11. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  12. Estimating the Wind Resource in Uttarakhand: Comparison of Dynamic Downscaling with Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundquist, J. K. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Pukayastha, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Martin, C. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Newsom, R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Previous estimates of the wind resources in Uttarakhand, India, suggest minimal wind resources in this region. To explore whether or not the complex terrain in fact provides localized regions of wind resource, the authors of this study employed a dynamic down scaling method with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, providing detailed estimates of winds at approximately 1 km resolution in the finest nested simulation.

  13. Wind Resource and Feasibility Assessment Report for the Lummi Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DNV Renewables (USA) Inc.; J.C. Brennan & Associates, Inc.; Hamer Environmental L.P.

    2012-08-31

    This report summarizes the wind resource on the Lummi Indian Reservation (Washington State) and presents the methodology, assumptions, and final results of the wind energy development feasibility assessment, which included an assessment of biological impacts and noise impacts.

  14. Comparison of SAR Wind Speed Retrieval Algorithms for Evaluating Offshore Wind Energy Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozai, K.; Ohsawa, T.; Takeyama, Y.

    2010-01-01

    Envisat/ASAR-derived offshore wind speeds and energy densities based on 4 different SAR wind speed retrieval algorithms (CMOD4, CMOD-IFR2, CMOD5, CMOD5.N) are compared with observed wind speeds and energy densities for evaluating offshore wind energy resources. CMOD4 ignores effects of atmospheri...

  15. Short-term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred K.

    2003-01-01

    , and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant......The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity...

  16. Human resources challenges for wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cottingham, C. [Electricity Sector Council, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The potential role of the Electricity Sector Council in wind power workforce development was reviewed. Canada is a major exporter of electricity, and production of electricity in the country has grown by 10 per cent in the last 10 years. The electric industry has become increasingly interested in the development of renewable and sustainable energy sources in order to reduce the environmental impacts of electricity production and use, as well to address potential supply shortages. However, total labour force growth in Canada is expected to drop to 0.5 per cent by 2010, and is expected to keep falling. Engineering and science enrolments in post-secondary institutions are declining. Many immigrants to Canada choose to settle in metropolitan areas, and only 4 in 10 immigrants are able to achieve validation of their credentials in the Canadian education system. One-third of Canadian employees are expected to retire in the next 8 years. The wind energy sector is the fastest growing energy source sector in Canada, and there are limited training facilities available. Competency profiles for roles in the industry are not clearly defined. Many provinces have very little development to support or sustain educational services for wind power training. This presentation suggested that the wind energy sector should prepare for the anticipated workforce shortage by planning training programs and building partnerships in workforce development. Investments in wind power research and development should have contract provisions regarding labour and skills development. Retiring electricity workers may provide a source of labour support. Sector councils provide a neutral forum for employers, educators, and employees, with a focus on human resource development for specific industry sectors. The councils represent an estimated 45 to 50 per cent of the labour market, and have significant federal funding. The Electricity Sector Council offers advanced career and workforce training; youth

  17. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  18. Offshore wind resources at Danish measurement sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barthelmie, R J; Courtney, M S; Lange, B; Nielsen, M; Sempreviva, A M [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Svenson, J; Olsen, F [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark); Christensen, T [Elsamprojekt, Fredericia (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    In order to characterise wind and turbulence characteristics at prospective offshore wind energy sites, meteorological observations from a number of purpose-built offshore monitoring sites have been analyzed and compared with long wind speed time series. New analyses have been conducted on the data sets focussing on meteorology, turbulence, extreme winds and wind and wave interactions. Relationships between wind speed, turbulence and fetch are highly complex. Minimum turbulence intensity offshore is associated with wind speeds of about 12 m/s. At lower wind speeds, stability effects are important while at higher winds speeds wind and wave interactions appear to dominate. On average, turbulence intensity offshore at 48 m height is approximately 0.08 if no coastal effects are present. However, the effect of the coastal discontinuity persists in wind speed and turbulence characteristics for considerable distances offshore. The majority of the adjustment of appears to occur within 20 km of the coast. (au)

  19. Neural Network Classifiers for Local Wind Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretzschmar, Ralf; Eckert, Pierre; Cattani, Daniel; Eggimann, Fritz

    2004-05-01

    This paper evaluates the quality of neural network classifiers for wind speed and wind gust prediction with prediction lead times between +1 and +24 h. The predictions were realized based on local time series and model data. The selection of appropriate input features was initiated by time series analysis and completed by empirical comparison of neural network classifiers trained on several choices of input features. The selected input features involved day time, yearday, features from a single wind observation device at the site of interest, and features derived from model data. The quality of the resulting classifiers was benchmarked against persistence for two different sites in Switzerland. The neural network classifiers exhibited superior quality when compared with persistence judged on a specific performance measure, hit and false-alarm rates.

  20. Assessment and prediction of wind turbine noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowson, M.V.

    1993-01-01

    The significance of basic aerodynamic noise sources for wind turbine noise are assessed, using information on the aero-acoustic mechanisms of other rotors, which have been studied in depth for many years. From the analysis, areas of potential improvement in wind turbine noise prediction are defined. Suggestions are made for approaches to wind turbine noise control which separate the noise problems at cut-in from those at rated power. Some of these offer the possibility of noise reduction without unfavourable effects on performance. Based on this analysis, a new model for prediction of wind turbine noise is presented and comparisons made between prediction and experiment. The model is based on well established aeroacoustic theory and published laboratory data for the two principal sources, inflow turbulence and boundary layer trailing edge interaction. The new method gives good agreement with experiment with the case studied so far. Parametric trends and sensitivities for the model are presented. Comparisons with previous prediction methods are also given. A consequence of the new model is to put more emphasis on boundary layer trailing edge interaction as a noise source. There are prospects for reducing noise from this source detail changes to the wind turbine design. (author)

  1. Review of Methodologies for Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in European Seas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Pryor, Sara

    2008-01-01

    promising wind farm sites and (ii) a site specific evaluation of wind climatology and vertical profiles of wind and atmospheric turbulence, in addition to an assessment of historical and possibly future changes due to climate non-stationarity. Phase (i) of the process can involve use of in situ observations......The wind resource offshore is generally larger than at geographically nearby onshore sites, which can offset the higher installation, operation and maintenance costs associated with offshore wind parks. Successful offshore wind energy development relies to some extent on accurate prediction of wind......) of the project often still requires in situ observations (which may or may not be supplemented with ground-based remote sensing technologies) and application of tools to provide a climatological context for the resulting measurements. Current methodologies for undertaking these aspects of the resource assessment...

  2. Load prediction of stall regulated wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A.; Dahlberg, J.Aa. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Carlen, I. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Div. of Marine Structural Engineering; Ganander, H. [Teknikgruppen AB, Sollentua (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Measurements of blade loads on a turbine situated in a small wind farm shows that the highest blade loads occur during operation close to the peak power i.e. when the turbine operates in the stall region. In this study the extensive experimental data base has been utilised to compare loads in selected campaigns with corresponding load predictions. The predictions are based on time domain simulations of the wind turbine structure, performed by the aeroelastic code VIDYN. In the calculations a model were adopted in order to include the effects of dynamic stall. This paper describes the work carried out so far within the project and key results. 5 refs, 10 figs

  3. Wind resource assessment and wind energy system cost analysis: Fort Huachuca, Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, T.L. [Tim Olsen Consulting, Denver, CO (United States); McKenna, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The objective of this joint DOE and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project is to determine whether wind turbines can reduce costs by providing power to US military facilities in high wind areas. In support of this objective, one year of data on the wind resources at several Fort Huachuca sites was collected. The wind resource data were analyzed and used as input to an economic study for a wind energy installation at Fort Huachuca. The results of this wind energy feasibility study are presented in the report.

  4. Satellite SAR wind resource mapping in China (SAR-China)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badger, M.

    2009-07-15

    The project 'Off-Shore Wind Energy Resource Assessment and Feasibility Study of Off-Shore Wind Farm Development in China' is funded by the EU-China Energy and Environment Programme (EEP) and runs for one year (August 2008 - August 2009). The project is lead by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and supported by SgurrEnergy Ltd. Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy at the Technical University of Denmark (Risoe DTU) has been commissioned to perform a satellite based wind resource analysis as part of the project. The objective of this analysis is to map the wind resource offshore at a high spatial resolution (1 km). The detailed wind resource maps will be used, in combination with other data sets, for an assessment of potential sites for offshore wind farm development along the coastline from Fujian to Shandong in China. (au)

  5. Applicability of Synthetic Aperture Radar Wind Retrievals on Offshore Wind Resources Assessment in Hangzhou Bay, China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Rui; Zhu, Rong; Badger, Merete

    2014-01-01

    In view of the high cost and sparse spatial resolution of offshore meteorological observations, ocean winds retrieved from satellites are valuable in offshore wind resource assessment as a supplement to in situ measurements. This study examines satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from...... ENVISAT advanced SAR (ASAR) for mapping wind resources with high spatial resolution. Around 181 collected pairs of wind data from SAR wind maps and from 13 meteorological stations in Hangzhou Bay are compared. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based wind speed show a standard...... density functions are compared at one meteorological station. The SAR-based results appear not to estimate the mean wind speed, Weibull scale and shape parameters and wind power density from the full in situ data set so well due to the lower number of satellite samples. Distributions calculated from...

  6. Wind power in Scotland - a critique of recent resource assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twidell, J.W.

    1995-01-01

    A critical analysis of 4 recent UK official reports relating to the renewable energy resources of Scotland, particularly the large wind resource, and including institutional and economic factors. Key points are listed with comments for use in supporting wind power developments. (Author)

  7. Management of moderate wind energy coastal resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karamanis, D.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Life cycle analysis reveals the viability of moderate wind fields utilization. → Wind turbine is the greenest electricity generator at a touristic site. → Wind parks should be collective applications of small hotel-apartments owners. -- Abstract: The feasibility of wind energy utilization at moderate wind fields was investigated for a typical touristic coastal site in Western Greece. Initially, the wind speed and direction as well as its availability, duration and diurnal variation were assessed. For an analysis period of eight years, the mean wind speed at ten meters was determined as 3.8 m s -1 with a small variation in monthly average wind speeds between 3.0 (January) and 4.4 m s -1 (October). The mean wind power density was less than 200 W m -2 at 10 m indicating the limiting suitability of the site for the usual renewable energy applications. However, life cycle analysis for wind turbine generators with lower cut-in, cut-out, and rated speeds revealed that the energy yield ratio can reach a value of six for a service life of 20 years while the energy pay-back period can be 3 years with 33 kt CO 2 -e of avoided greenhouse emissions. Therefore, the recent technological turbine improvements make wind power viable even at moderate wind fields. Moreover, the study of electricity supply of typical small hotel-apartments in the region of Western Greece indicated that the installation of 300 wind turbine generators in these moderate wind fields would cover the total consumption during the open touristic period with profits during the rest of the year. According to these results, wind turbine generators are the 'greenest' way of generating electricity in touristic coastal sites, even of moderate wind speeds.

  8. Predicting annoyance by wind turbine noise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.; Vos, H.; Eisses, A.R.; Pedersen, E.

    2010-01-01

    While wind turbines have beneficial effects for the environment, they inevitably generate environmental noise. In order to protect residents against unacceptable levels of noise, exposure-response relationships are needed to predict the expected percentage of people annoyed or highly annoyed at a

  9. Predictability and Variability of Wave and Wind

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, Hans Christian

    This project covers two fields of study: a) Wave energy predictability and electricity markets. b) Variability of the power output of WECs in diversified systems : diversified renewable systems with wave and offshore wind production. See page 2-4 in the report for a executive summery....

  10. Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

    2013-12-01

    The long and extended warm and dry summers, the low rate of rain and humidity are the main factors that explain the increase of electricity consumption in hot arid regions. In such regions, the ventilating and air-conditioning installations, that are typically the most energy-intensive among energy consumption activities, are essential for securing healthy, safe and suitable indoor thermal conditions for building occupants and stored materials. The use of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind represents one of the most relevant solutions to overcome the increase of the electricity demand challenge. In the recent years, wind energy is gaining more importance among the researchers worldwide. Wind energy is intermittent in nature and hence the power system scheduling and dynamic control of wind turbine requires an estimate of wind energy. Accurate forecast of wind speed is a challenging task for the wind energy research field. In fact, due to the large variability of wind speed caused by the unpredictable and dynamic nature of the earth's atmosphere, there are many fluctuations in wind power production. This inherent variability of wind speed is the main cause of the uncertainty observed in wind power generation. Furthermore, producing wind power forecasts might be obtained indirectly by modeling the wind speed series and then transforming the forecasts through a power curve. Wind speed forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently and several models have been developed. Basically two main approaches have been proposed in the literature: (1) physical models such as Numerical Weather Forecast and (2) statistical models such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, Neural Networks. While the initial focus in the literature has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events has led to an interest in producing probabilistic forecasts. In short term

  11. Asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources in Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Gunturu, Udaya

    2017-08-14

    Wind and hydropower together constitute nearly 80% of the renewable capacity in Australia and their resources are collocated. We show that wind and hydro generation capacity factors covary negatively at the interannual time scales. Thus, the technology diversity mitigates the variability of renewable power generation at the interannual scales. The asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources is explained by the differential impact of the two modes of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation – canonical and Modoki – on the wind and hydro resources. Also, the Modoki El Ni˜no and the Modoki La Ni˜na phases have greater impact. The seasonal impact patterns corroborate these results. As the proportion of wind power increases in Australia’s energy mix, this negative covariation has implications for storage capacity of excess wind generation at short time scales and for generation system adequacy at the longer time scales.

  12. Asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources in Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Gunturu, Udaya; Hallgren, Willow

    2017-01-01

    Wind and hydropower together constitute nearly 80% of the renewable capacity in Australia and their resources are collocated. We show that wind and hydro generation capacity factors covary negatively at the interannual time scales. Thus, the technology diversity mitigates the variability of renewable power generation at the interannual scales. The asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources is explained by the differential impact of the two modes of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation – canonical and Modoki – on the wind and hydro resources. Also, the Modoki El Ni˜no and the Modoki La Ni˜na phases have greater impact. The seasonal impact patterns corroborate these results. As the proportion of wind power increases in Australia’s energy mix, this negative covariation has implications for storage capacity of excess wind generation at short time scales and for generation system adequacy at the longer time scales.

  13. Wind energy resource atlas. Volume 7. The south central region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, R.L.; Graves, L.F.; Sprankle, A.C.; Elliott, D.L.; Barchet, W.R.; George, R.L.

    1981-03-01

    This atlas of the south central region combines seven collections of wind resource data: one for the region, and one for each of the six states (Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas). At the state level, features of the climate, topography, and wind resource are discussed in greater detail than that provided in the regional discussion, and the data locations on which the assessment is based are mapped. Variations, over several time scales, in the wind resource at selected stations in each state are shown on graphs of monthly average and interannual wind speed and power, and hourly average wind speed for each season. Other graphs present speed, direction, and duration frequencies of the wind at these locations.

  14. Asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Hallgren, Willow

    2017-08-18

    Wind and hydropower together constitute nearly 80% of the renewable capacity in Australia and their resources are collocated. We show that wind and hydro generation capacity factors covary negatively at the interannual time scales. Thus, the technology diversity mitigates the variability of renewable power generation at the interannual scales. The asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources is explained by the differential impact of the two modes of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation - canonical and Modoki - on the wind and hydro resources. Also, the Modoki El Ni˜no and the Modoki La Ni˜na phases have greater impact. The seasonal impact patterns corroborate these results. As the proportion of wind power increases in Australia's energy mix, this negative covariation has implications for storage capacity of excess wind generation at short time scales and for generation system adequacy at the longer time scales.

  15. Wind Resource Assessment in Abadan Airport in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Nedaei

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energies have potential for supplying of relatively clean and mostly local energy. Wind energy generation is expected to increase in the near future and has experienced dramatic growth over the past decade in many countries. Wind speed is the most important parameter in the design and study of wind energy conversion systems. Probability density functions such as Weibull and Rayleigh are often used in wind speed and wind energy analyses. This paper presents an assessment of wind energy at three heights during near two years based on Weibull distribution function in Abadan Airport. Extrapolation of the 10 m and 40 m data, using the power law, has been used to determine the wind speed at height of 80 m. According to the results wind speed at 80 m height in Abadan is ranged from 5.8 m/s in Nov to 8.5 m/s in Jun with average value of 7.15 m/s. In this study, different parameters such as Weibull parameters, diurnal and monthly wind speeds, cumulative distribution and turbulence intensity have been estimated and analyzed. In addition Energy production of different wind turbines at different heights was estimated. The results show that the studied site has good potential for Installation of large and commercial wind turbines at height of 80 m or higher. Keywords: Abadan, Iran, wind energy, wind resource, wind turbine, Weibull

  16. Quantifying offshore wind resources from satellite wind maps: Study area the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Christiansen, Merete B.

    2006-01-01

    Offshore wind resources are quantified from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and satellite scatterometer observations at local and regional scale respectively at the Horns Rev site in Denmark. The method for wind resource estimation from satellite observations interfaces with the wind atlas...... of the Horns Rev wind farm is quantified from satellite SAR images and compared with state-of-the-art wake model results with good agreement. It is a unique method using satellite observations to quantify the spatial extent of the wake behind large offshore wind farms. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....... analysis and application program (WAsP). An estimate of the wind resource at the new project site at Horns Rev is given based on satellite SAR observations. The comparison of offshore satellite scatterometer winds, global model data and in situ data shows good agreement. Furthermore, the wake effect...

  17. Wind resource assessment and siting analysis in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricci, A.; Mizzoni, G.; Rossi, E.

    1992-01-01

    Recently, the wind power industry has matured; consequently, in many countries a lot of wind energy applications have been programmed. Many of them are already realized and running. As such, there is a direct necessity to identify a sizeable number of wind power plant sites. Choosing the right sites to match specific Wind Energy Conversion Systems (WECS) is also needed to harness this clean energy from the points of view of industrial viability and project financing. As a pre-requisite to install a wind turbine at a particular site, it is necessary to have knowledge of the theoretical available wind energy at the site, as well as, of the practicability of the design in matching the characteristics of the WECS. In this paper, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technology, Energy and Environment) wind siting and resource assessment activities, currently on-going in different regions in Italy, along with the present status and future prospects of the wind power industry

  18. Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

    2017-09-01

    Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

  19. A GIS wind resource map with tabular printout of monthly and annual wind speeds for 2,000 towns in Iowa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Factor, T. [Iowa Wind Energy Institute, Fairfield, IA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Iowa Wind Energy Institute, under a grant from the Iowa Energy Center, undertook in 1994 to map wind resources in Iowa. Fifty-meter met towers were erected at 13 locations across the state deemed promising for utility-scale wind farm development. Two years of summarized wind speed, direction, and temperature data were used to create wind resource maps incorporating effects of elevation, relative exposure, terrain roughness, and ground cover. Maps were produced predicting long-term mean monthly and annual wind speeds on a one-kilometer grid. The estimated absolute standard error in the predicted annual average wind speeds at unobstructed locations is 9 percent. The relative standard error between points on the annual map is estimated to be 3 percent. These maps and tabular data for 2,000 cities and towns in Iowa are now available on the Iowa Energy Center`s web site (http.//www.energy.iastate.edu).

  20. Wind Resource Assessment and Requested Wind Turbine Recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ken [Municipal Civil Corporation, Gas City, IN (United States); Wolar, John [Municipal Civil Corporation, Gas City, IN (United States)

    2012-10-22

    Alternate Energy Solutions, Inc. (“AESWR”) was engaged by the Town of Brookston (“Brookston”) to assemble, erect and maintain one 60 m XHD meteorological tower manufactured by NRG Systems, Inc.; for monitoring, recording and evaluating collected wind data. It is the opinion of AESWR staff that study results support the development of a wind turbine project at the Bol Family Farm provided: a) additional land is leased for the project; b) project construction costs are controlled; and c) a prudent power purchase agreement is negotiated with a power take-off entity. We believe that a project having an aggregate nameplate rating sized from 6.0 MW to 20 MW would be appropriate for this location. We recommend 100-125 acres of land per installed MW be used as a general rule for acquiring wind energy land lease agreements, total land lease holdings to be acquired would then approach 750 acres to 2,500 acres.

  1. Session: What can we learn from developed wind resource areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thelander, Carl; Erickson, Wally

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop was composed of two parts intended to examine what existing science tells us about wind turbine impacts at existing wind project sites. Part one dealt with the Altamont Wind Resource area, one of the older wind projects in the US, with a paper presented by Carl Thelander titled ''Bird Fatalities in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: A Case Study, Part 1''. Questions addressed by the presenter included: how is avian habitat affected at Altamont and do birds avoid turbine sites; are birds being attracted to turbine strings; what factors contribute to direct impacts on birds by wind turbines at Altamont; how do use, behavior, avoidance and other factors affect risk to avian species, and particularly impacts those species listed as threatened, endangered, or of conservation concern, and other state listed species. The second part dealt with direct impacts to birds at new generation wind plants outside of California, examining such is sues as mortality, avoidance, direct habitat impacts from terrestrial wind projects, species and numbers killed per turbine rates/MW generated, impacts to listed threatened and endangered species, to USFWS Birds of Conservation Concern, and to state listed species. This session focused on newer wind project sites with a paper titled ''Bird Fatality and Risk at New Generation Wind Projects'' by Wally Erickson. Each paper was followed by a discussion/question and answer period.

  2. Wind resource assessment: A three year experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Abbadi, N.M.; Alawaji, S.H.; Eugenio, N.N. [Energy Research Institute (ERI), Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents the results of data collected from three different sites located in the central, northern and eastern region of Saudi Arabia. Each site is geographically and climatologically different from the others. Statistical moments and frequency distributions were generated for the wind speed and direction parameters to analyse the wind energy characteristics and its availability. The results of these statistical operations present the wind power and energy density estimates of the three sites. The data analysis presented a prospect of wind energy conversion and utilization. The annual extractable energy density is 488, 890, 599 kWh/m{sup 2} for the central, northern and eastern sites respectively. Also, the paper demonstrates the lessons learned from operating wind assessment stations installed in remote areas having different environmental characteristics.

  3. Terminology Guideline for Classifying Offshore Wind Energy Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beiter, Philipp [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Musial, Walt [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this guideline is to establish a clear and consistent vocabulary for conveying offshore wind resource potential and to interpret this vocabulary in terms that are familiar to the oil and gas (O&G) industry. This involves clarifying and refining existing definitions of offshore wind energy resource classes. The terminology developed in this guideline represents one of several possible sets of vocabulary that may differ with respect to their purpose, data availability, and comprehensiveness. It was customized to correspond with established offshore wind practices and existing renewable energy industry terminology (e.g. DOE 2013, Brown et al. 2015) while conforming to established fossil resource classification as best as possible. The developers of the guideline recognize the fundamental differences that exist between fossil and renewable energy resources with respect to availability, accessibility, lifetime, and quality. Any quantitative comparison between fossil and renewable energy resources, including offshore wind, is therefore limited. For instance, O&G resources are finite and there may be significant uncertainty associated with the amount of the resource. In contrast, aboveground renewable resources, such as offshore wind, do not generally deplete over time but can vary significantly subhourly, daily, seasonally, and annually. The intent of this guideline is to make these differences transparent and develop an offshore wind resource classification that conforms to established fossil resource classifications where possible. This guideline also provides methods to quantitatively compare certain offshore wind energy resources to O&G resource classes for specific applications. Finally, this guideline identifies areas where analogies to established O&G terminology may be inappropriate or subject to misinterpretation.

  4. Satellite based wind resource assessment over the South China Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Merete; Astrup, Poul; Hasager, Charlotte Bay

    2014-01-01

    variations are clearly visible across the domain; for instance sheltering effects caused by the land masses. The satellite based wind resource maps have two shortcomings. One is the lack of information at the higher vertical levels where wind turbines operate. The other is the limited number of overlapping...... years of WRF data – specifically the parameters heat flux, air temperature, and friction velocity – are used to calculate a long-term correction for atmospheric stability effects. The stability correction is applied to the satellite based wind resource maps together with a vertical wind profile...... from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are particularly suitable for offshore wind energy applications because they offer a spatial resolution up to 500 m and include coastal seas. In this presentation, satellite wind maps are used in combination with mast observations and numerical...

  5. Total, accessible and reserve wind energy resources in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, P.; Trifonova, L.

    1996-01-01

    The article is a part of the international project 'Bulgaria Country Study to Address Climate Change Inventory of the Greenhouse Gases Emission and Sinks Alternative Energy Balance and Technology Programs' sponsored by the Department of Energy, US. The 'total' average annual wind resources in Bulgaria determined on the basis wind velocity density for more than 100 meteorological stations are estimated on 125 000 TWh. For the whole territory the theoretical wind power potential is about 14200 GW. The 'accessible' wind resources are estimated on about 62000 TWh. The 'reserve' (or usable) wind resources are determined using 8 velocity intervals for WECS (Wind Energy Conversion Systems) operation, number and disposition of turbines, and the usable (3%) part of the territory. The annual reserve resources are estimated at about 21 - 33 TWh. The 'economically beneficial' wind resources (EBWR) are those part of the reserve resources which could be included in the country energy balance using specific technologies in specific time period. It is foreseen that at year 2010 the EBWR could reach 0.028 TWh. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  6. A comprehensive measure of the energy resource: Wind power potential (WPP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A more comprehensive metric is developed to accurately assess the quality of wind resources at a site. • WPP exploits the joint distribution of wind speed and direction, and yields more credible estimates. • WPP investigates the effect of wind distribution on the optimal net power generation of a farm. • The results show that WPD and WPP follow different trends. - Abstract: Currently, the quality of available wind energy at a site is assessed using wind power density (WPD). This paper proposes to use a more comprehensive metric: the wind power potential (WPP). While the former accounts for only wind speed information, the latter exploits the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction and yields more credible estimates. The WPP investigates the effect of wind velocity distribution on the optimal net power generation of a farm. A joint distribution of wind speed and direction is used to characterize the stochastic variation of wind conditions. Two joint distribution methods are adopted in this paper: bivariate normal distribution and anisotropic lognormal method. The net power generation for a particular farmland size and installed capacity is maximized for different distributions of wind speed and wind direction, using the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) framework. A response surface is constructed to represent the computed maximum wind farm capacity factor as a function of the parameters of the wind distribution. Two different response surface methods are adopted in this paper: (i) the adaptive hybrid functions (AHF), and (ii) the quadratic response surface method (QRSM). Toward this end, for any farm site, we can (i) estimate the parameters of the joint distribution using recorded wind data (for bivariate normal or anisotropic lognormal distributions) and (ii) predict the maximum capacity factor for a specified farm size and capacity using this response surface. The WPP metric is illustrated using recorded wind

  7. High-altitude wind resources in the Middle East

    KAUST Repository

    Yip, Chak Man Andrew; Gunturu, Udaya; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2017-01-01

    In the Middle East, near-surface wind resources are intermittent. However, high-altitude wind resources are abundant, persistent, and readily available and may provide alternative energy resources in this fossil-fuel-dependent region. Using wind field data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), this study identifies areas favorable to the deployment of airborne wind energy (AWE) systems in the Middle East and computes the optimal heights at which such systems would best operate. AWE potential is estimated using realistic AWE system specifications and assumptions about deployment scenarios and is compared with the near-surface wind generation potential with respect to diurnal and seasonal variability. The results show the potential utility of AWE in areas in the Middle East where the energy demand is high. In particular, Oman and Saudi Arabia have a high level of the potential power generation with low annual variability.

  8. High-altitude wind resources in the Middle East

    KAUST Repository

    Yip, Chak Man Andrew

    2017-08-23

    In the Middle East, near-surface wind resources are intermittent. However, high-altitude wind resources are abundant, persistent, and readily available and may provide alternative energy resources in this fossil-fuel-dependent region. Using wind field data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), this study identifies areas favorable to the deployment of airborne wind energy (AWE) systems in the Middle East and computes the optimal heights at which such systems would best operate. AWE potential is estimated using realistic AWE system specifications and assumptions about deployment scenarios and is compared with the near-surface wind generation potential with respect to diurnal and seasonal variability. The results show the potential utility of AWE in areas in the Middle East where the energy demand is high. In particular, Oman and Saudi Arabia have a high level of the potential power generation with low annual variability.

  9. Wind Speed Prediction with Wavelet Time Series Based on Lorenz Disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the sustainable and pollution-free characteristics, wind energy has been one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. However, the intermittent and random fluctuation of wind speed presents many challenges for reliable wind power integration and normal operation of wind farm. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to ensure the safe operation of power system and to develop wind energy resources. Therefore, this paper has presented a wavelet time series wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance. Therefore, in this paper, combined with the atmospheric dynamical system, a wavelet-time series improved wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance is proposed and the wind turbines of different climate types in Spain and China are used to simulate the disturbances of Lorenz equations with different initial values. The prediction results show that the improved model can effectively correct the preliminary prediction of wind speed, improving the prediction. In a word, the research work in this paper will be helpful to arrange the electric power dispatching plan and ensure the normal operation of the wind farm.

  10. Reliability benefits of dispersed wind resource development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.; Artig, R.

    1998-05-01

    Generating capacity that is available during the utility peak period is worth more than off-peak capacity. Wind power from a single location might not be available during enough of the peak period to provide sufficient value. However, if the wind power plant is developed over geographically disperse locations, the timing and availability of wind power from these multiple sources could provide a better match with the utility's peak load than a single site. There are other issues that arise when considering disperse wind plant development. Singular development can result in economies of scale and might reduce the costs of obtaining multiple permits and multiple interconnections. However, disperse development can result in cost efficiencies if interconnection can be accomplished at lower voltages or at locations closer to load centers. Several wind plants are in various stages of planning or development in the US. Although some of these are small-scale demonstration projects, significant wind capacity has been developed in Minnesota, with additional developments planned in Wyoming, Iowa and Texas. As these and other projects are planned and developed, there is a need to perform analysis of the value of geographically disperse sites on the reliability of the overall wind plant.This paper uses a production-cost/reliability model to analyze the reliability of several wind sites in the state of Minnesota. The analysis finds that the use of a model with traditional reliability measures does not produce consistent, robust results. An approach based on fuzzy set theory is applied in this paper, with improved results. Using such a model, the authors find that system reliability can be optimized with a mix of disperse wind sites

  11. Satellite SAR wind resource mapping in China (SAR-China)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Merete

    The project ‘Off-Shore Wind Energy Resource Assessment and Feasibility Study of Off-Shore Wind Farm Development in China’ is funded by the EU-China Energy and Environment Programme (EEP) and runs for one year (August 2008 - August 2009). The project is lead by the China Meteorological Administrat...

  12. Characterization of wind power resource and its intermittency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunturu, U. B.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    Wind resource in the continental and offshore United States has been calculated and characterized using metrics that describe - apart from abundance - its availability, persistence and intermittency. The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) boundary layer flux data has been used to construct wind power density profiles at 50, 80, 100 and 120 m turbine hub heights. The wind power density estimates at 50 m are qualitatively similar to those in the US wind atlas developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), but quantitatively a class less in some regions, but are within the limits of uncertainty. We also show that for long tailed distributions like those of the wind power density, the mean is an overestimation and median is a more robust metric for summary representation of wind power resource.Generally speaking, the largest and most available wind power density resources are found in off-shore regions of the Atlantic and Pacific coastline, and the largest on-shore resource potential lies in the central United States. However, the intermittency and widespread synchronicity of on-shore wind power density are substantial, and highlights areas where considerable back-up generation technologies will be required. Generation-duration curves are also presented for the independent systems operator (ISO) zones of the U.S. to highlight the regions with the largest capacity factor (MISO, ERCOT, and SWPP) as well as the periods and extent to which all ISOs contain no wind power and the potential benefits of aggregation on wind power intermittency in each region. The impact of raising the wind turbine hub height on metrics of abundance, persistence, variability and intermittency is analyzed. There is a general increase in availability and abundance of wind resource but there is also an increase in intermittency with respect to a 'usable wind power' crossing level in low resource regions. A similar perspective of wind resource for

  13. Model Predictive Control with Constraints of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2007-01-01

    Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure a...... an efficient control of the wind turbine over the entire range of wind speeds. Both onshore and floating offshore wind turbines are tested with the controllers.......Model predictive control of wind turbines offer a more systematic approach of constructing controllers that handle constraints while focusing on the main control objective. In this article several controllers are designed for different wind conditions and appropriate switching conditions ensure...

  14. The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

    2018-04-01

    When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

  15. Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

    2012-08-01

    This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

  16. Applicability of Synthetic Aperture Radar Wind Retrievals on Offshore Wind Resources Assessment in Hangzhou Bay, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In view of the high cost and sparse spatial resolution of offshore meteorological observations, ocean winds retrieved from satellites are valuable in offshore wind resource assessment as a supplement to in situ measurements. This study examines satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR images from ENVISAT advanced SAR (ASAR for mapping wind resources with high spatial resolution. Around 181 collected pairs of wind data from SAR wind maps and from 13 meteorological stations in Hangzhou Bay are compared. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based wind speed show a standard deviation (SD of 1.99 m/s and correlation coefficient of R = 0.67. The model wind directions, which are used as input for the SAR wind speed retrieval, show a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89 but a large standard deviation (SD = 42.3° compared to in situ observations. The Weibull probability density functions are compared at one meteorological station. The SAR-based results appear not to estimate the mean wind speed, Weibull scale and shape parameters and wind power density from the full in situ data set so well due to the lower number of satellite samples. Distributions calculated from the concurrent 81 SAR and in situ samples agree well.

  17. Preliminary results of Aruba wind resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guda, M.H. [Fundashon Antiyano Pa Energia, Curacao (Netherlands Antilles)

    1996-12-31

    As part of a project to assess the possibilities for wind energy utilitization in the Dutch Antilles islands, windspeed and -direction data were collected in Aruba for two years, from March 1992 to February 1994. Five sites that were estimated to be representative for the islands` wind regimes, were monitored during this period: two sites on the windward coast, one east and one west; two inland sites, again one east and one west, and one site topping the cliffs overlooking the eastern windward coast. Additionally, twenty years worth of data were analyzed for the reference site at the airport, which is in the middle part of the island, on the leeward coast. Correlation calculations between these data and the data for the project sites were performed, in order to establish a methodology for estimating the long-term behavior of the wind regimes at these sites. 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Wind speed prediction using statistical regression and neural network

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assess- ment,satellite launching and aviation,etc.There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction,which require a minimum number of input parameters.Four different statistical techniques,viz.,curve fitting,Auto Regressive ...

  19. Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Kyung Park

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975 of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q and the decay time (tau of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst* and VB_s, Delta Dst* and VB_s, and Delta Dst* and Dst* during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour is estimated as 0.060 Dst* + 16.65 for Dst*>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst* leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst* is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975 and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a. The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst* lesssim -200nT.

  20. SAR-Based Wind Resource Statistics in the Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Peña

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Ocean winds in the Baltic Sea are expected to power many wind farms in the coming years. This study examines satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR images from Envisat ASAR for mapping wind resources with high spatial resolution. Around 900 collocated pairs of wind speed from SAR wind maps and from 10 meteorological masts, established specifically for wind energy in the study area, are compared. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based wind speed show a root mean square error of 1.17 m s−1, bias of −0.25 m s−1, standard deviation of 1.88 m s−1 and correlation coefficient of R2 0.783. Wind directions from a global atmospheric model, interpolated in time and space, are used as input to the geophysical model function CMOD-5 for SAR wind retrieval. Wind directions compared to mast observations show a root mean square error of 6.29° with a bias of 7.75°, standard deviation of 20.11° and R2 of 0.950. The scale and shape parameters, A and k, respectively, from the Weibull probability density function are compared at only one available mast and the results deviate ~2% for A but ~16% for k. Maps of A and k, and wind power density based on more than 1000 satellite images show wind power density values to range from 300 to 800 W m−2 for the 14 existing and 42 planned wind farms.

  1. Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Heimiller, D.; Lopez, A.; Eurek, K.; Badger, J.; Jorgensen, H. E.; Kelly, M.; Clarke, L.; Luckow, P.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas.

  2. Development of Regional Wind Resource and Wind Plant Output Datasets for the Hawaiian Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manobianco, J.; Alonge, C.; Frank, J.; Brower, M.

    2010-07-01

    In March 2009, AWS Truepower was engaged by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a set of wind resource and plant output data for the Hawaiian Islands. The objective of this project was to expand the methods and techniques employed in the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS) to include the state of Hawaii.

  3. Wind resource assessment using the WAsP software (DTU Wind Energy E-0135)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling

    These course notes are intended for the three-week course 46200 Planning and Development of Wind Farms given each year at the Technical University of Denmark. The purpose of the course notes is to give an introduction to wind resource assessment and siting issues using the WAsP suite of programs....

  4. 46200 Planning and Development of Wind Farms: Wind resource assessment using the WAsP software

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling

    These course notes are intended for the three-week course 46200 Planning and Development of Wind Farms given each year at the Technical University of Denmark. The purpose of the course notes is to give an introduction to wind resource assessment and siting issues using the WAsP suite of programs....

  5. Planning and Development of Wind Farms: Wind Resource Assessment and Siting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling

    These course notes are intended for the three-week course 45700 Planning and Development of Wind Farms given at the Technical University of Denmark. The purpose of the course notes is to give an introduction to wind resource assessment and siting issues using the WAsP suite of programs....

  6. Planning and Development of Wind Farms: Wind Resource Assessment and Siting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling

    These course notes are intended for the three-week course 46200 Planning and Development of Wind Farms given at the Technical University of Denmark. The purpose of the course notes is to give an introduction to wind resource assessment and siting issues using the WAsP suite of programs....

  7. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  8. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela de Lucas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  9. Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Derya, A.; Aasen, Curtis A.

    2000-01-01

    Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the

  10. Kaneohe, Hawaii Wind Resource Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robichaud, R.; Green, J.; Meadows, B.

    2011-11-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has an interagency agreement to assist the Department of Defense (DOD) in evaluating the potential to use wind energy for power at residential properties at DOD bases in Hawaii. DOE assigned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to facilitate this process by installing a 50-meter (m) meteorological (Met) tower on residential property associated with the Marine Corps Base Housing (MCBH) Kaneohe Bay in Hawaii.

  11. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  12. Could Crop Height Affect the Wind Resource at Agriculturally Productive Wind Farm Sites?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

    2016-03-01

    The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length in a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. These considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.

  13. The wind resource assessment program in Quebec Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahawita, R.; Bilodeau, L.; Gaudette, M.; Gratton, Y.; Noel, R.; Quach, T.T.

    1982-09-01

    This paper provides an overview of the wind resource assessment programme undertaken by the provincial power utility Hydro-Quebec, in Quebec, Canada. The methodology used in different phases of the project is enunciated and explained and the results discussed. Supplementary studies of airflow over complex terrain using numerical modelling are described and the results evaluated. Since the program is still far from completion, conclusive statements cannot, at this time, be made about the viability of the wind energy resource. However, tentative conclusions are that wind energy as an alternate source of energy for the province is likely to be commerciaally viable since two of the most important requirements viz, the presence of a good wind regime and the availability of suitable land are satisfied in many regions.

  14. Computer modelling of the UK wind energy resource: final overview report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, S F; Ravenscroft, F

    1993-12-31

    This report describes the results of a programme of work to estimate the UK wind energy resource. Mean wind speed maps and quantitative resource estimates were obtained using the NOABL mesoscale (1 km resolution) numerical model for the prediction of wind flow over complex terrain. NOABL was used in conjunction with digitised terrain data and wind data from surface meteorological stations for a ten year period (1975-1984) to provide digital UK maps of mean wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level. Also included in the derivation of these maps was the use of the Engineering Science Data Unit (ESDU) method to model the effect on wind speed of the abrupt change in surface roughness that occurs at the coast. Existing isovent maps, based on standard meteorological data which take no account of terrain effects, indicate that 10m annual mean wind speeds vary between about 4.5 and 7 m/s over the UK with only a few coastal areas over 6 m/s. The present study indicated that 23% of the UK land area had speeds over 6 m/s, with many hill sites having 10m speeds over 10 m/s. It is concluded that these `first order` resource estimates represent a substantial improvement over the presently available `zero order` estimates. (20 figures, 7 tables, 10 references). (author)

  15. Potential for Development of Solar and Wind Resource in Bhutan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilman, P.; Cowlin, S.; Heimiller, D.

    2009-09-01

    With support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) produced maps and data of the wind and solar resources in Bhutan. The solar resource data show that Bhutan has an adequate resource for flat-plate collectors, with annual average values of global horizontal solar radiation ranging from 4.0 to 5.5 kWh/m2-day (4.0 to 5.5 peak sun hours per day). The information provided in this report may be of use to energy planners in Bhutan involved in developing energy policy or planning wind and solar projects, and to energy analysts around the world interested in gaining an understanding of Bhutan's wind and solar energy potential.

  16. A new measure-correlate-predict approach for resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    In order to find reasonable candidate site for wind farms, it is of great importance to be able to calculate the wind resource at potential sites. One way to solve this problem is to measure wind speed and direction at the site, and use these measurements to predict the resource. If the measurements at the potential site cover less than e.g. one year, which most likely will be the case, it is not possible to get a reliable estimate of the long-term resource, using this approach. If long-term measurements from e.g. some nearby meteorological station are available, however, then statistical methods can be used to find a relation between the measurements at the site and at the meteorological station. This relation can then be used to transform the long-term measurements to the potential site, and the resource can be calculated using the transformed measurements. Here, a varying-coefficient model, estimated using local regression, is applied in order to establish a relation between the measurements. The approach is evaluated using measurements from two sites, located approximately two kilometres apart, and the results show that the resource in this case can be predicted accurately, although this approach has serious shortcomings. (au)

  17. Avian use of Norris Hill Wind Resource Area, Montana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harmata, A.; Podruzny, K.; Zelenak, J. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Biology Dept.

    1998-07-01

    This document presents results of a study of avian use and mortality in and near a proposed wind resource area in southwestern Montana. Data collected in autumn 1995 through summer 1996 represented preconstruction condition; it was compiled, analyzed, and presented in a format such that comparison with post-construction data would be possible. The primary emphasis of the study was recording avian migration in and near the wind resource area using state-of-the-art marine surveillance radar. Avian use and mortality were investigated during the breeding season by employing traditional avian sampling methods, radiotelemetry, radar, and direct visual observation. 61 figs., 34 tabs.

  18. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Guangsheng

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii annual water resources assessment, and (iii industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  19. Estimation of wind and solar resources in Mali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badger, J.; Kamissoko, F.; Olander Rasmussen, M.; Larsen, Soeren; Guidon, N.; Boye Hansen, L.; Dewilde, L.; Alhousseini, M.; Noergaard, P.; Nygaard, I.

    2012-11-15

    The wind resource has been estimated for all of Mali at 7.5 km resolution using the KAMM/WAsP numerical wind atlas methodology. Three domains were used to cover entire country and three sets of wind classes used to capture change in large scale forcing over country. The final output includes generalized climate statistics for any location in Mali, giving wind direction and wind speed distribution. The modelled generalized climate statistics can be used directly in the WAsP software. The preliminary results show a wind resource, which is relatively low, but which under certain conditions may be economically feasible, i.e. at favourably exposed sites, giving enhanced winds, and where practical utilization is possible, given consideration to grid connection or replacement or augmentation of diesel-based electricity systems. The solar energy resource for Mali was assessed for the period between July 2008 and June 2011 using a remote sensing based estimate of the down-welling surface shortwave flux. The remote sensing estimates were adjusted on a month-by-month basis to account for seasonal differences between the remote sensing estimates and in situ data. Calibration was found to improve the coefficient of determination as well as decreasing the mean error both for the calibration and validation data. Compared to the results presented in the ''Renewable energy resources in Mali - preliminary mapping''-report that showed a tendency for underestimation compared to data from the NASA PPOWER/SSE database, the presented results show a very good agreement with the in situ data (after calibration) with no significant bias. Unfortunately, the NASA-database only contains data up until 2005, so a similar comparison could not be done for the time period analyzed in this study, although the agreement with the historic NASA data is still useful as reference. (LN)

  20. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

  1. Satellite winds as a tool for offshore wind resource assessment: The Great Lakes Wind Atlas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doubrawa, Paula; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Pryor, Sara C.

    2015-01-01

    and combine all scenes into one wind speed map. QuikSCAT winds undergo a seasonal correction due to lack of data during the cold season that is based on its ratio relative to buoy time series. All processing steps reduce the biases of the individual maps relative to the buoy observed wind climates. The remote...

  2. Computer modelling of the UK wind energy resource. Phase 2. Application of the methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, S F; Makari, M; Newton, K; Ravenscroft, F; Whittaker, J

    1993-12-31

    This report presents the results of the second phase of a programme to estimate the UK wind energy resource. The overall objective of the programme is to provide quantitative resource estimates using a mesoscale (resolution about 1km) numerical model for the prediction of wind flow over complex terrain, in conjunction with digitised terrain data and wind data from surface meteorological stations. A network of suitable meteorological stations has been established and long term wind data obtained. Digitised terrain data for the whole UK were obtained, and wind flow modelling using the NOABL computer program has been performed. Maps of extractable wind power have been derived for various assumptions about wind turbine characteristics. Validation of the methodology indicates that the results are internally consistent, and in good agreement with available comparison data. Existing isovent maps, based on standard meteorological data which take no account of terrain effects, indicate that 10m annual mean wind speeds vary between about 4.5 and 7 m/s over the UK with only a few coastal areas over 6 m/s. The present study indicates that 28% of the UK land area had speeds over 6 m/s, with many hill sites having 10m speeds over 10 m/s. It is concluded that these `first order` resource estimates represent a substantial improvement over the presently available `zero order` estimates. The results will be useful for broad resource studies and initial site screening. Detailed resource evaluation for local sites will require more detailed local modelling or ideally long term field measurements. (12 figures, 14 tables, 21 references). (Author)

  3. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...

  4. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    OpenAIRE

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

  5. Multidimensional optimal droop control for wind resources in DC microgrids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, Kaitlyn J.

    Two important and upcoming technologies, microgrids and electricity generation from wind resources, are increasingly being combined. Various control strategies can be implemented, and droop control provides a simple option without requiring communication between microgrid components. Eliminating the single source of potential failure around the communication system is especially important in remote, islanded microgrids, which are considered in this work. However, traditional droop control does not allow the microgrid to utilize much of the power available from the wind. This dissertation presents a novel droop control strategy, which implements a droop surface in higher dimension than the traditional strategy. The droop control relationship then depends on two variables: the dc microgrid bus voltage, and the wind speed at the current time. An approach for optimizing this droop control surface in order to meet a given objective, for example utilizing all of the power available from a wind resource, is proposed and demonstrated. Various cases are used to test the proposed optimal high dimension droop control method, and demonstrate its function. First, the use of linear multidimensional droop control without optimization is demonstrated through simulation. Next, an optimal high dimension droop control surface is implemented with a simple dc microgrid containing two sources and one load. Various cases for changing load and wind speed are investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques. Optimal multidimensional droop control is demonstrated with a wind resource in a full dc microgrid example, containing an energy storage device as well as multiple sources and loads. Finally, the optimal high dimension droop control method is applied with a solar resource, and using a load model developed for a military patrol base application. The operation of the proposed control is again investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques.

  6. Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Kjellstroem, E.

    2005-01-01

    Energy is a fundamental human need. Heat, light and transport for individuals combined with the needs of industry have created a demand for energy which for the last 100-200 years has been met largely through consumption of fossil fuels leading to altered atmospheric composition and modification of the global climate. These effects will be realised on local scales affecting not just temperature and precipitation but also wind, radiation and other parameters. Annual mean wind speeds and wind energy density over northern Europe were significantly higher at the end of twentieth century than during the middle portion of that century, with the majority of the change being focused on the winter season. To address questions regarding possible future wind climates we employ dynamical and empirical downscaling techniques that seek to take coarse resolution output from General Circulation Models (GCM), run to provide scenarios of future climate, and develop higher resolution regional wind climates. Analyses of the wind climate during the historical record indicate that both the dynamical approach and the empirical approach are capable of generating accurate, robust and quantitative assessments of the wind climate and energy density in northern Europe, and hence that they may be of great utility to those seeking financing for, or risk management of, wind farms in the face of climate uncertainty. The synthesis of application of these downscaling tools to climate projections for northern Europe is that there is no evidence of major changes in the wind energy resource. However, more research is required to quantify the uncertainties in developing these projections and to reduce those uncertainties. Further work should also be conducted to assess the validity of these downscaling approaches in other geographical locations. (BA)

  7. Wind Predictions Upstream Wind Turbines from a LiDAR Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soledad Le Clainche

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method to predict the wind velocity upstream a horizontal axis wind turbine from a set of light detection and ranging (LiDAR measurements. The method uses higher order dynamic mode decomposition (HODMD to construct a reduced order model (ROM that can be extrapolated in space. LiDAR measurements have been carried out upstream a wind turbine at six different planes perpendicular to the wind turbine axis. This new HODMD-based ROM predicts with high accuracy the wind velocity during a timespan of 24 h in a plane of measurements that is more than 225 m far away from the wind turbine. Moreover, the technique introduced is general and obtained with an almost negligible computational cost. This fact makes it possible to extend its application to both vertical axis wind turbines and real-time operation.

  8. Model predictive control for wind power gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Boyd, Stephen; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    We consider the operation of a wind turbine and a connected local battery or other electrical storage device, taking into account varying wind speed, with the goal of maximizing the total energy generated while respecting limits on the time derivative (gradient) of power delivered to the grid. We...... ranges. The system dynamics are quite non-linear, and the constraints and objectives are not convex functions of the control inputs, so the resulting optimal control problem is difficult to solve globally. In this paper, we show that by a novel change of variables, which focuses on power flows, we can...... wind data and modern wind forecasting methods. The simulation results using real wind data demonstrate the ability to reject the disturbances from fast changes in wind speed, ensuring certain power gradients, with an insignificant loss in energy production....

  9. Improved Wind Speed Prediction Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Wind power industry plays an important role in promoting the development of low-carbon economic and energy transformation in the world. However, the randomness and volatility of wind speed series restrict the healthy development of the wind power industry. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to realize the stability of wind power integration and to guarantee the safe operation of the power system. In this paper, combined with the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD, the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF and the Least Square Support Vector Machine (SVM, an improved wind speed prediction model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-RBF-LS-SVM is proposed. The prediction result indicates that compared with the traditional prediction model (RBF, LS-SVM, the EMD-RBF-LS-SVM model can weaken the random fluctuation to a certain extent and improve the short-term accuracy of wind speed prediction significantly. In a word, this research will significantly reduce the impact of wind power instability on the power grid, ensure the power grid supply and demand balance, reduce the operating costs in the grid-connected systems, and enhance the market competitiveness of the wind power.

  10. Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

    2011-01-01

    In wind farms, individual turbines disturb the wind field by generating wakes that influence other turbines in the farm. From a control point of view, there is an interest in dynamic optimization of the balance between fatigue and production, and an understanding of the relationship between turbines...... on standard turbine measurements such as rotor speed and power produced, an effective wind speed, which represents the wind field averaged over the rotor disc, is derived. The effective wind speed estimator is based on a continuous–discrete extended Kalman filter that takes advantage of nonlinear time varying...... on the result related to effective wind speed, it is possible to predict wind speeds at neighboring turbines, with a separation of over 700 m, up to 1 min ahead reducing the error by 30% compared with a persistence method. The methodological results are demonstrated on data from an off-shore wind farm...

  11. Wind prediction in Malaysia using Mycielski-1 approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. W.; Kok, B. C.; Goh, K. C.; Goh, H. H.

    2012-11-01

    In this paper, the wind speed prediction in Kudat, Malaysia had been done by using Mycielski-1 approach. There is some improvement in obtaining the random number of Mycielski-1. The wind prediction is important to study a favorable site's wind potential. The prediction is based on 3 years history data provided by Meteorology Department of Malaysia and 1 year data as the reference to check the accuracy of this algorithm. The basic concept of this algorithm is to predict the next value by looking to history data. The result shows the prediction of Mycielski-1 algorithm is promising. The wind speed is predicted in order to obtain the mean power for energy planning.

  12. Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suhan

    2017-04-01

    The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

  13. Small scale wind power harnessing in Colombian oil industry facilities: Wind resource and technology issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giraldo, Mauricio; Nieto, Cesar; Escudero, Ana C.; Cobos, Juan C.; Delgado, Fernando

    2010-07-01

    Full text: Looking to improve its national and international standing, Colombia's national oil company, Ecopetrol, has set its goal on becoming involved on the production of energy from multiple sources, most importantly, on having an important percentage of its installed capacity from renewable sources. Part of this effort entices the evaluation of wind power potential on its facilities, including production, transportation and administrative, as well as identifying those technologies most suitable for the specific conditions of an equatorial country such as Colombia. Due to the lack of adequate site information, the first step consisted in superimposing national data to the facilities map of the company; this allowed for the selection of the first set of potential sites. From this set, the terminal at Covenas-Sucre was selected taking into account not only wind resource, but ease of access and power needs, as well as having a more or less representative wind potential in comparison to the rest of the country. A weather station was then installed to monitor wind variables. Measurements taken showed high variations in wind direction, and relatively low velocity profiles, making most commercially available wind turbines difficult to implement. In light of the above, a series of iterative steps were taken, first considering a range of individual Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWT), given their capacity to adapt to changing wind directions. However, wind speed variations proved to be a challenge for individual VAWT's, i.e. Darriues turbines do not work well with low wind speeds, and Savonius turbines are not efficient of high wind speeds. As a result, a combined Darrieus- Savonius VAWT was selected given the capacity to adapt to both wind regimes, while at the same time modifying the size and shape of the blades in order to adapt to the lower average wind speeds present at the site. The resulting prototype is currently under construction and is scheduled to

  14. A Comparison of Wind Flow Models for Wind Resource Assessment in Wind Energy Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Landry

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the accuracy of various coupled mesoscale-microscale wind flow modeling methodologies for wind energy applications. This is achieved by examining and comparing mean wind speeds from several wind flow modeling methodologies with observational measurements from several 50 m met towers distributed across the study area. At the mesoscale level, with a 5 km resolution, two scenarios are examined based on the Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2 model: the Canadian Wind Energy Atlas (CWEA scenario, which is based on standard input data, and the CWEA High Definition (CWEAHD scenario where high resolution land cover input data is used. A downscaling of the obtained mesoscale wind climate to the microscale level is then performed, where two linear microscale models, i.e., MsMicro and the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP, are evaluated following three downscaling scenarios: CWEA-WAsP, CWEA-MsMicro and CWEAHD-MsMicro. Results show that, for the territory studied, with a modeling approach based on the MC2 and MsMicro models, also known as Wind Energy Simulation Toolkit (WEST, the use of high resolution land cover and topography data at the mesoscale level helps reduce modeling errors for both the mesoscale and microscale models, albeit only marginally. At the microscale level, results show that the MC2-WAsP modeling approach gave substantially better results than both MC2 and MsMicro modeling approaches due to tweaked meso-micro coupling.

  15. Wind power in Eritrea, Africa: A preliminary resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garbesi, K.; Rosen, K. [San Jose State Univ., CA (United States); Van Buskirk, R. [Dept. of Energy, Eritrea (Ethiopia)

    1997-12-31

    The authors preliminary assessment of Eritrean wind energy potential identified two promising regions: (1) the southeastern Red Sea coast and (2) the mountain passes that channel winds between the coastal lowlands and the interior highlands. The coastal site, near the port city of Aseb, has an exceptionally good resource, with estimated average annual wind speeds at 10-m height above 9 m/s at the airport and 7 m/s in the port. Furthermore, the southern 200 km of coastline has offshore WS{sub aa} > 6 m/s. This area has strong potential for development, having a local 20 MW grid and unmet demand for the fishing industry and development. Although the highland sites contain only marginal wind resources ({approximately} 5 m/s), they warrant further investigation because of their proximity to the capital city, Asmera, which has the largest unmet demand and a larger power grid (40 MW with an additional 80 MW planned) to absorb an intermittent source without storage.

  16. Evaluation of offshore wind resources by scale of development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd; Hong, Lixuan; Lonsing, Reinhard

    -economic model operating in a geographical information systems (GIS) environment, which describes resources, costs and area constraints in a spatially explicit way, the relation between project size, location, costs and ownership is analysed. Two scenarios are presented, which describe a state......Offshore wind energy has developed rapidly in terms of turbine and project size, and currently undergoes a significant up-scaling to turbines and parks at greater distance to shore and deeper waters. Expectations to the positive effect of economies of scale on power production costs, however, have...... can be explained by deeper water, higher distance to shore, bottlenecks in supply or higher raw material costs. The present paper addresses the scale of offshore wind parks for Denmark and invites to reconsider the technological and institutional choices made. Based on a continuous resource...

  17. Evaluation of offshore wind resources by scale of development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd; Hong, Lixuan; Lonsing, Reinhard

    2012-01-01

    -economic model operating in a geographical information systems (GIS) environment, which describes resources, costs and area constraints in a spatially explicit way, the relation between project size, location, costs and ownership is analysed. Two scenarios are presented, which describe a state......Offshore wind energy has developed rapidly in terms of turbine and project size, and currently undergoes a significant up-scaling to turbines and parks at greater distance to shore and deeper waters. Expectations to the positive effect of economies of scale on power production costs, however, have...... can be explained by deeper water, higher distance to shore, bottlenecks in supply or higher raw material costs. The present paper addresses the scale of offshore wind parks for Denmark and invites to reconsider the technological and institutional choices made. Based on a continuous resource...

  18. Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, M.; Heimiller, D.; Haymes, S.; Musial, W.

    2010-06-01

    This report summarizes the offshore wind resource potential for the contiguous United States and Hawaii as of May 2009. The development of this assessment has evolved over multiple stages as new regional meso-scale assessments became available, new validation data was obtained, and better modeling capabilities were implemented. It is expected that further updates to the current assessment will be made in future reports.

  19. State of the art on wind resource estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1998-12-31

    With the increasing number of wind resource estimation studies carried out for regions, countries and even larger areas all over the world, the IEA finds that the time has come to stop and take stock of the various methods used in these studies. The IEA would therefore like to propose an Experts Meeting on wind resource estimation. The Experts Meeting should describe the models and databases used in the various studies. It should shed light on the strengths and shortcomings of the models and answer questions like: where and under what circumstances should a specific model be used? what is the expected accuracy of the estimate of the model? and what is the applicability? When addressing databases the main goal will be to identify the content and scope of these. Further, the quality, availability and reliability of the databases must also be recognised. In the various studies of wind resources the models and databases have been combined in different ways. A final goal of the Experts Meeting is to see whether it is possible to develop systems of methods which would depend on the available input. These systems of methods should be able to address the simple case (level 0) of a region with barely no data, to the complex case of a region with all available measurements: surface observations, radio soundings, satellite observations and so on. The outcome of the meeting should be an inventory of available models as well as databases and a map of already studied regions. (au)

  20. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  1. Building Chinese wind data for Wind Erosion Prediction System using surrogate US data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wind erosion is a global problem, especially in arid and semiarid regions of the world, which leads to land degradation and atmosphere pollution. The process-based Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), developed by the USDA, is capable of simulating the windblown soil loss with changing weather and...

  2. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 70 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 70m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  3. VT Predicted Mean Wind Power - 50 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind power predictions at 50m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  4. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 30 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 30m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  5. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  6. WPPT, a tool for on-line wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skov Nielsen, T. [Dept. of Mathematical Modelling (IMM-DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Madsen, H. [Dept. of Mathematical Modelling (IMM-DTU) Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (Denmark)

    2004-07-01

    This paper dsecribes VPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool), an application for assessing the future available wind power up to 36 hours ahead in time. WPPT has been installed in the Eltra/Elsam central dispatch center since October 1997. The paper describes the prediction model used, the actual implementation of WPPT as well as the experience gained by the operators in the dispatch center (au)

  7. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture prior to the Wind Erosion Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarko, John; Sporcic, Michael A.; Skidmore, Edward L.

    2013-09-01

    The Great Plains experienced an influx of settlers in the late 1850s-1900. Periodic drought was hard on both settlers and the soil and caused severe wind erosion. The period known as the Dirty Thirties, 1931-1939, produced many severe windstorms, and the resulting dusty sky over Washington, DC helped Hugh Hammond Bennett gain political support for the Soil Conservation Act of 1937 that started the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS). Austin W. Zingg and William S. Chepil began wind erosion studies at a USDA laboratory at Kansas State University in 1947. Neil P. Woodruff and Francis H. Siddoway published the first widely used model for wind erosion in 1965, called the Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ). The WEQ was solved using a series of charts and lookup tables. Subsequent improvements to WEQ included monthly magnitudes of the total wind, a computer version of WEQ programmed in FORTRAN, small-grain equivalents for range grasses, tillage systems, effects of residue management, crop row direction, cloddiness, monthly climate factors, and the weather. The SCS and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) produced several computer versions of WEQ with the goal of standardizing and simplifying it for field personnel including a standalone version of WEQ was developed in the late 1990s using Microsoft Excel. Although WEQ was a great advancement to the science of prediction and control of wind erosion on cropland, it had many limitations that prevented its use on many lands throughout the United States and the world. In response to these limitations, the USDA developed a process-based model know as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS). The USDA Agricultural Research Service has taken the lead in developing science and technology for wind erosion prediction.

  8. Frequency weighted model predictive control of wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klauco, Martin; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2013-01-01

    This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work are the rotatio...... predictive controller are presented. Statistical comparison between frequency weighted MPC, standard MPC and baseline PI controller is shown as well.......This work is focused on applying frequency weighted model predictive control (FMPC) on three blade horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). A wind turbine is a very complex, non-linear system influenced by a stochastic wind speed variation. The reduced dynamics considered in this work...... are the rotational degree of freedom of the rotor and the tower for-aft movement. The MPC design is based on a receding horizon policy and a linearised model of the wind turbine. Due to the change of dynamics according to wind speed, several linearisation points must be considered and the control design adjusted...

  9. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    , we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based......The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

  10. Probabilistic maximum-value wind prediction for offshore environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staid, Andrea; Pinson, Pierre; Guikema, Seth D.

    2015-01-01

    statistical models to predict the full distribution of the maximum-value wind speeds in a 3 h interval. We take a detailed look at the performance of linear models, generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines models using meteorological covariates such as gust speed, wind speed......, convective available potential energy, Charnock, mean sea-level pressure and temperature, as given by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts. The models are trained to predict the mean value of maximum wind speed, and the residuals from training the models are used to develop...... the full probabilistic distribution of maximum wind speed. Knowledge of the maximum wind speed for an offshore location within a given period can inform decision-making regarding turbine operations, planned maintenance operations and power grid scheduling in order to improve safety and reliability...

  11. Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Anna [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-26

    The methods for analysis of operational wind plant data are highly variable across the wind industry, leading to high uncertainties in the validation and bias-correction of preconstruction energy estimation methods. Lack of credibility in the preconstruction energy estimates leads to significant impacts on project financing and therefore the final levelized cost of energy for the plant. In this work, the variation in the evaluation of a wind plant's operational energy production as a result of variations in the processing methods applied to the operational data is examined. Preliminary results indicate that selection of the filters applied to the data and the filter parameters can have significant impacts in the final computed assessment metrics.

  12. Remapping of the Wind Energy Resource in the Midwestern United States: Preprint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.; Elliot, D.

    2001-01-01

    A recent increase in interest and development of wind energy in the Midwestern United States has focused the need for updating wind resource maps of this area. The wind resource assessment group at the National Renewable Energy Lab., a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) laboratory, has produced updated high-resolution (1-km) wind resource maps for several states in this region. This abstract describes the computerized tools and methodology used by NREL to create the higher resolution maps

  13. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

    2013-07-01

    In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  14. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  15. Analysis of the balancing of the wind and solar energy resources in Andalusia (Southern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Alamillos, F. J.; Pozo-Vazquez, D.; Lara-Fanego, V.; Ruiz-Arias, J. A.; Hernandez-Alvaro, J.; Tova-Pescador, J.

    2010-09-01

    A higher penetration of the renewable energy in the electric system in the future will be conditioned to a reduction of the uncertainty of the yield. A way to obtain this goal is to analyze the balancing between the productions of different sources of renewable energy, trying to combine these productions. In this work we analyze, from a meteorological point of view, the balancing between wind and solar energy resources in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula). To this end, wind speed and global radiation data corresponding to an one year integration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model were analyzed. Two method of analysis were used: a point correlation analysis and a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Results from these analyses allow obtaining, eventually, areas of local and distributed balancing between the wind and solar energy resources. The analysis was carried out separately for the different seasons of the year. Results showed, overall, a considerable balancing effect between the wind and solar resources in the mountain areas of the interior of the region, along the coast of the central part of the region and, specially, in the coastal area near the Gibraltar strait. Nevertheless, considerable differences were found between the seasons of the year, which may lead to compensating effects. Autumn proved to be the season with the most significant results.

  16. Optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Wu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    direct optimization of both the coverage probability and sharpness to ensure the quality. The proposed method does not involve the statistical inference or distribution assumption of forecasting errors needed in most existing methods. Case studies using real wind farm data from Australia have been...

  17. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power......Lowering the cost of energy is one of the major focus areas in the wind turbine industry. Recent research has indicated that wind turbine controllers based on model predictive control methods can be useful in obtaining this objective. A number of design considerations have to be made when designing....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

  18. Rooftop wind resource assessment using a three-dimensional ultrasonic anemometer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, D.C.; Whale, J.; Livingston, P.O.; Chan, D. [Murdoch Univ., Murdoch, WA (Australia)

    2008-07-01

    Building integrated wind turbines (BUWTs) are designed for the built environment and can be located on or next to buildings. In general, these types of urban wind turbines are less than 20 kW in rated capacity, and have the potential to contribute to the energy needs of the building and reduce overall emissions. There are currently over 32 manufacturers and 57 different urban wind turbine products available in Europe alone. The first rooftop wind system in Australia was installed in 2006. To data, 5 systems have been installed and there are plans for up to 20 more. The main problems associated with these types of systems are due to poor wind resources at the location or improper site selection for the turbine. This paper reported on a research study into initiating best practice guidelines for rooftop wind systems. There is a concern that environmentally conscious homeowners or businesses will install rooftop wind systems in support of sustainability, but without adequate consideration of safety, structural building integrity or turbine performance. The potential consequence of such projects could be the failure of the project due to underperforming turbines, noise, and vibration; or the development of a negative reputation for wind energy and the renewable energy industry. This study included 2 primary initiatives, notably a computer simulated modeling exercise and an onsite rooftop wind monitoring station. This paper focused on the methodology and justification for developing the monitoring station. An ultrasonic 3D anemometer was used to collect data and to develop a 3D wind profile. The wind regime on the rooftop in the complex terrain of the built environment was highly dynamic, turbulent, and included a strong vertical component. It was concluded that site selection for turbines must be determined by a proper feasibility study involving accurate data. Although the initial phase of the project to predict the resource and deploy the monitoring station has been

  19. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  20. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  1. Wind Energy Resource Assessment on Alaska Native Lands in Cordova Region of Prince William Sound

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whissel, John C. [Native Village of Eyak, Cordova, AK (United States); Piche, Matthew [Native Village of Eyak, Cordova, AK (United States)

    2015-06-29

    The Native Village of Eyak (NVE) has been monitoring wind resources around Cordova, Alaska in order to determine whether there is a role for wind energy to play in the city’s energy scheme, which is now supplies entirely by two run-of-the-river hydro plants and diesel generators. These data are reported in Appendices A and B. Because the hydro resources decline during winter months, and wind resources increase, wind is perhaps an ideal counterpart to round out Cordova’s renewable energy supply. The results of this effort suggests that this is the case, and that developing wind resources makes sense for our small, isolated community.

  2. Model Predictive Voltage Control of Wind Power Plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei

    2018-01-01

    the efficacy of the proposed WFVC, two case scenarios were designed: the wind farm is under normal operating conditions and the internal wind power fluctuation is considered; and besides internal power fluctuation, the impact of the external grid on the wind farm is considered.......This chapter proposes an autonomous wind farm voltage controller (WFVC) based on model predictive control (MPC). It also introduces the analytical expressions for the voltage sensitivity to tap positions of a transformer. The chapter then describes the discrete models for the wind turbine...... generators (WTGs) and static var compensators (SVCs)/static var generators (SVGs). Next, it describes the implementation of the on‐load tap changing (OLTC) in the MPC. Furthermore, the chapter examines the cost function as well as the constraints of the MPC‐based WFVC for both control modes. In order to test...

  3. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landberg, L.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will describe a system which predicts the expected power output of a number of wind farms. The system is automatic and operates on-line. The paper will quantify the accuracy of the predictions and will also give examples of the performance for specific storm events. An actual...

  4. The influence of waves on the offshore wind resource

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lange, B [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Hoejstrup, J [NEG Micon, Randers (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    With the growing interest in offshore wind resources, it has become increasingly important to establish and refine models for the interaction between wind and waves in order to obtain accurate models for the sea surface roughness. The simple Charnock relation that has been applied for open sea conditions does not work well in the shallow water near-coastal areas that are important for offshore wind energy. A model for the surface roughness of the sea has been developed based on this concept, using an expression for the Charnock constant as a function of wave age, and then relating the wave `age` to the distance to the nearest upwind coastline. The data used in developing these models originated partly from analysis of data from the Vindeby site, partly from previously published results. The scatter in the data material was considerable and consequently there is a need to test these models further by analysing data from sites exhibiting varying distances to the coast. Results from such analysis of recent data are presented for sites with distances to the coast varying from 10 km to several hundreds of km. The model shows a good agreement also with this data. (au)

  5. Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... of the uncertain system is employed and a norm-bounded uncertainty model is used to formulate a minimax model predictive control. The resulting optimization problem is simplified by semidefinite relaxation and the controller obtained is applied on a full complexity, high fidelity wind turbine model. Finally...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

  6. Improving urban wind flow predictions through data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Jorge; Gorle, Catherine

    2017-11-01

    Computational fluid dynamic is fundamentally important to several aspects in the design of sustainable and resilient urban environments. The prediction of the flow pattern for example can help to determine pedestrian wind comfort, air quality, optimal building ventilation strategies, and wind loading on buildings. However, the significant variability and uncertainty in the boundary conditions poses a challenge when interpreting results as a basis for design decisions. To improve our understanding of the uncertainties in the models and develop better predictive tools, we started a pilot field measurement campaign on Stanford University's campus combined with a detailed numerical prediction of the wind flow. The experimental data is being used to investigate the potential use of data assimilation and inverse techniques to better characterize the uncertainty in the results and improve the confidence in current wind flow predictions. We consider the incoming wind direction and magnitude as unknown parameters and perform a set of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations to build a polynomial chaos expansion response surface at each sensor location. We subsequently use an inverse ensemble Kalman filter to retrieve an estimate for the probabilistic density function of the inflow parameters. Once these distributions are obtained, the forward analysis is repeated to obtain predictions for the flow field in the entire urban canopy and the results are compared with the experimental data. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR.

  7. Artificial intelligence to predict short-term wind speed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinto, Tiago; Soares, Joao; Ramos, Sergio; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - ISEP

    2012-07-01

    The use of renewable energy is increasing exponentially in many countries due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on energy and on the environment makes the efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system extremely important. Several European countries have been seeing a high penetration of wind power, representing, gradually, a significant penetration on electricity generation. The introduction of wind power in the network power system causes new challenges for the power system operator due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind power generation. As result, the scheduling dispatch has a significantly portion of uncertainty. In order to deal with the uncertainty in wind power and, with that, introduce improvements in the power system operator efficiency, the wind power forecasting may reveal as a useful tool. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology to forecast wind speed. This method is based on the use of data mining techniques applied to a real database of historical wind data. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years to predict wind speed at 5 minute intervals. (orig.)

  8. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  9. Danish-Czech wind resource know-how transfer project. Interim report 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rathmann, O.; Noergaerd, P.; Frandsen, S.

    2003-12-01

    The progress of the Danish-Czech Wind Resource Know-how Transfer Project is reported. The know-how transfer component of the project has consisted in performing a wind resource training workshop for about 13 individuals from the Czech Republic, ranging from scientists to wind farm project developers, and in donating modern software for evaluating wind resources. The project has also included a review of a Czech overview-study of wind speeds inside the country as well as a study of the electricity tariffs and their impact on wind energy utilization in the Czech Republic. A problematic existing Czech wind farm project, locked up in a no-production situation, was also addressed. However, this situation turned out to be related to problems with economy and owner-ship to a higher degree than to low wind resources and technical problems, and it was not possible for the project to point out a way out of this situation. (au)

  10. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  11. Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

  12. Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Gang; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2014-01-01

    China's wind installed capacity has grown at a remarkable rate, over 80% annually average growth since 2005, reaching 91.5 GW of capacity by end of 2013, accounting for over 27% of global capacity. This rapid growth has been the result of a domestic manufacturing base and favorable national policies. Further evolution will be greatly aided with a detailed wind resource assessment that incorporates spatial and temporal variability across China. We utilized 200 representative locations for which 10 years of hourly wind speed data exist to develop provincial capacity factors from 2001 to 2010, and to build analytic wind speed profiles. From these data and analysis we find that China's annual wind generation could reach 2000 TWh to 3500 TWh. Nationally this would correspond to an average capacity factor of 0.18. The diurnal and seasonal variation shows spring and winter has better wind resources than in the summer and fall. A highly interconnected and coordinated power system is needed to effectively exploit this large but variable resource. A full economic assessment of exploitable wind resources demands a larger, systems-level analysis of China's energy options, for which this work is a core requirement. - Highlights: • We assessed China's wind resources by utilizing 10 years of hourly wind speed data of 200 sites. • We built provincial scale wind speed profiles and develop provincial capacity factors for China. • We found that China's wind generation could reach 2000 TWh to 3500 TWh annually. • We observed similar temporal variation pattern of wind availability across China

  13. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  14. Predicting Ultimate Loads for Wind Turbine Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madsen, P. H.; Pierce, K.; Buhl, M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the statistical uncertainty of loads prediction using structural dynamics simulation codes and the requirements for the number and duration of simulations for obtaining robust load estimates

  15. Wind Power Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Landberg, Lars

    Wind power meteorology has evolved as an applied science, firmly founded on boundary-layer meteorology, but with strong links to climatology and geography. It concerns itself with three main areas: siting of wind turbines, regional wind resource assessment, and short-term prediction of the wind...... resource. The history, status and perspectives of wind power meteorology are presented, with emphasis on physical considerations and on its practical application. Following a global view of the wind resource, the elements of boundary layer meteorology which are most important for wind energy are reviewed......: wind profiles and shear, turbulence and gust, and extreme winds. The data used in wind power meteorology stem mainly from three sources: onsite wind measurements, the synoptic networks, and the re-analysis projects. Wind climate analysis, wind resource estimation and siting further require a detailed...

  16. Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over South China Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Rui; Rong, Zhu; Badger, Merete

    2015-01-01

    offshore winds which can be used for offshore wind resource assessment. First, wind speeds retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Scatterometer ASCAT images were validated against in situ measurements from seven coastal meteorological stations in South China Sea (SCS). The wind roses from...... (SD) of 2.09 m/s (1.83 m/s) and correlation coefficient of R 0.75 (0.80). When the offshore winds (i.e., winds directed from land to sea) are excluded, the comparison results for wind speeds show an improvement of SD and R, indicating that the satellite data are more credible over the open ocean...

  17. Vertical Wind Tunnel for Prediction of Rocket Flight Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoani Bryson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A customized vertical wind tunnel has been built by the University of Canterbury Rocketry group (UC Rocketry. This wind tunnel has been critical for the success of UC Rocketry as it allows the optimization of avionics and control systems before flight. This paper outlines the construction of the wind tunnel and includes an analysis of flow quality including swirl. A minimal modelling methodology for roll dynamics is developed that can extrapolate wind tunnel behavior at low wind speeds to much higher velocities encountered during flight. The models were shown to capture the roll flight dynamics in two rocket launches with mean roll angle errors varying from 0.26° to 1.5° across the flight data. The identified model parameters showed consistent and predictable variations over both wind tunnel tests and flight, including canard–fin interaction behavior. These results demonstrate that the vertical wind tunnel is an important tool for the modelling and control of sounding rockets.

  18. Wind as a utility-grade supply resource: A planning framework for the Pacific Northwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.S.; Litchfield, J.

    1993-12-01

    Many areas throughout the United States possess favorable wind resources that, as yet, remain undeveloped. This paper provides valuable information on the type of information developers can provide, utility interpretation of the information in regard to electric energy and capacity attributes, and wind resource characteristics of interest to utilities. The paper also reviews key utility planning contexts within which prospective wind resources may be evaluated

  19. Aerodynamic performance prediction of Darrieus-type wind turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion NILĂ

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of Darrieus wind turbine aerodynamic performances provides the necessarydesign and operational data base related to the wind potential. In this sense it provides the type ofturbine suitable to the area where it is to be installed. Two calculation methods are analyzed for arotor with straight blades. The first one is a global method that allows an assessment of the turbinenominal power by a brief calculation. This method leads to an overestimation of performances. Thesecond is the calculation method of the gust factor and momentum which deals with the pale as beingcomposed of different elements that don’t influence each other. This method, developed based on thetheory of the turbine blades, leads to values close to the statistical data obtained experimentally. Thevalues obtained by the calculation method of gust factor - momentum led to the concept of a Darrieusturbine, which will be tested for different wind values in the INCAS subsonic wind tunnel.

  20. Model predictive control of wind energy conversion systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yaramasu, Venkata Narasimha R

    2017-01-01

    The authors provide a comprehensive analysis on the model predictive control of power converters employed in a wide variety of variable-speed wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The contents of this book includes an overview of wind energy system configurations, power converters for variable-speed WECS, digital control techniques, MPC, modeling of power converters and wind generators for MPC design. Other topics include the mapping of continuous-time models to discrete-time models by various exact, approximate, and quasi-exact discretization methods, modeling and control of wind turbine grid-side two-level and multilevel voltage source converters. The authors also focus on the MPC of several power converter configurations for full variable-speed permanent magnet synchronous generator based WECS, squirrel-cage induction generator based WECS, and semi-variable-speed doubly fed induction generator based WECS.

  1. Analysis of the potential for hydrogen production in the province of Cordoba, Argentina, from wind resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, C.R.; Santa Cruz, R.; Aisa, S. [Universidad Empresarial Siglo 21, Monsenor Pablo Cabrera s/n calle, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Riso, M.; Jimenez Yob, G.; Ottogalli, R. [Subsecretaria de Infraestructuras y Programas, Ministerio de Obras y Servicios Publicos del Gobierno de la Provincia de Cordoba, Av. Poeta Lugones 12, 2do. Piso, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Jeandrevin, G. [Instituto Universitario Aeronautico, Avenida Fuerza Aerea km 6 1/2, 5022 Cordoba (Argentina); Leiva, E.P.M. [INFIQC, Unidad de Matematica y Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Quimicas, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Haya de la Torre s/n, 5010 Cordoba (Argentina)

    2010-06-15

    The potential for hydrogen production from wind resources in the province of Cordoba, second consumer of fossil fuels for transportation in Argentina, is analyzed. Three aspects of the problem are considered: the evaluation of the hydrogen resource from wind power, the analysis of the production costs via electrolysis and the annual requirements of wind energy to generate hydrogen to fuel the vehicular transport of the province. Different scenarios were considered, including pure hydrogen as well as the so-called CNG plus, where hydrogen is mixed with compressed natural gas in a 20% V/V dilution of the former. The potential for hydrogen production from wind resources is analyzed for each department of the province, excluding those regions not suited for wind farms. The analysis takes into account the efficiency of the electrolyzer and the capacity factor of the wind power system. It is concluded that the automotive transportation could be supplied by hydrogen stemming from wind resources via electrolysis. (author)

  2. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  3. WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar...

  4. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    units. The approach is inspired by smart-grid electric power production and consumption systems, where the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units can be exploited in a smart-grid solution. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising......This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... on one hand from varying consumption, on the other hand by natural variations in power production e.g. from wind turbines. The approach presented is based on quadratic optimization and possess the properties of low algorithmic complexity and of scalability. In particular, the proposed design methodology...

  5. Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

  6. Prediction of wind energy distribution in complex terrain using CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Chang; Li, Chenqi; Yang, Jianchuan

    2013-01-01

    Based on linear models, WAsP software predicts wind energy distribution, with a good accuracy for flat terrain, but with a large error under complicated topography. In this paper, numerical simulations are carried out using the FLUENT software on a mesh generated by the GAMBIT and ARGIS software ...

  7. A study on the survey of wind energy resources for potential areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Kyung Ho; Kim, Keon Hoon; Yoo, Seung Won; Choi, Chang Joon; Ahn, Jung Jong [Korea Inst. of Energy Research, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1995-12-01

    Among the wind energy utilization projects, the siting work for wind turbine installation is one of the most important procedure because the wind energy distribution is very different regionally and wind energy density influences greatly to the feasibility of wind energy utilization. So, the potential sites of wind generating in our country must be surveyed and analyzed the feasibility of wind energy utilization. In addition to this, the technique of wind energy prediction considered of the topography, surface roughness and obstacle condition must be established for the reliable analysis of wind energy utilization. The contents carried out in this project are shown below, 1. Determining of the measuring sites of wind data - Wyoulryung-ri, Youngrag-ri, Gapa-ri in Cheju Province - Heul-ri, Gangwon Province. 2. Analysis of wind energy at measuring sites The characteristics of wind energy at the measured sites were analysed. It will be continued to measure the wind data by wind data logger. 3. A study on wind energy prediction technique It was studied how to obtain the topographic map data for using WAsP(WIndAtlas Analysis and Application Program). (author). 21 refs., 59 figs., 19 tabs.

  8. Smoothing out the volatility of South Africa’s wind and solar energy resources

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mushwana, Crescent

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In the past, renewables were mainly driven by the US, Europe and China, but South Africa is slowly picking up. This presentation discusses South Africa's wind and solar resources as alternative energy resources....

  9. Avian risk behavior and fatalities at the Altamont Wind Resource Area: March 1998 - February 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thelander, C.; Rugge, L.

    2000-05-08

    Since 1981, more than 7,000 wind turbines have been installed in the Altamont Wind Resource Area in north-central California. Currently, about 5,000 turbines are operating. Past research efforts demonstrated that wind turbines frequently kill birds, especially raptors. Little is known about the specific flight and perching behaviors by birds near wind turbines. A better understanding of these interactions may one day yield insights on how to minimize bird fatalities. This Phase 1 progress report summarizes research findings obtained at 20 study plots totaling 785 turbines of various configurations and conducted between March 1998 and February 1999. The authors examined bird use and behaviors and collected data on fatalities at the same turbines throughout the course of the surveys. They completed 745 30-minute point counts (1,702 bird observations) that quantified bird risk behaviors and bird use of the study plots. The four most frequently observed bird species were red-tailed hawks, common ravens, turkey vultures, and golden eagles. During the same period, the authors recorded 95 bird fatalities. Raptors represent 51% (n=49) of the kills found. The data indicate that the relative abundance of species observed does not predict the relative frequency of fatalities per species. Phase II of the research is underway.

  10. Avian risk behavior and fatalities at the Altamont Wind Resource Area: March 1998 - February 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thelander, C.; Rugge, L.

    2000-01-01

    Since 1981, more than 7,000 wind turbines have been installed in the Altamont Wind Resource Area in north-central California. Currently, about 5,000 turbines are operating. Past research efforts demonstrated that wind turbines frequently kill birds, especially raptors. Little is known about the specific flight and perching behaviors by birds near wind turbines. A better understanding of these interactions may one day yield insights on how to minimize bird fatalities. This Phase 1 progress report summarizes research findings obtained at 20 study plots totaling 785 turbines of various configurations and conducted between March 1998 and February 1999. The authors examined bird use and behaviors and collected data on fatalities at the same turbines throughout the course of the surveys. They completed 745 30-minute point counts (1,702 bird observations) that quantified bird risk behaviors and bird use of the study plots. The four most frequently observed bird species were red-tailed hawks, common ravens, turkey vultures, and golden eagles. During the same period, the authors recorded 95 bird fatalities. Raptors represent 51% (n=49) of the kills found. The data indicate that the relative abundance of species observed does not predict the relative frequency of fatalities per species. Phase II of the research is underway

  11. Wind energy resources assessment for Yanbo, Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, Shafiqur

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents long term wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal and diurnal variations at Yanbo, which is located on the west coast of Saudi Arabia. The wind speed and wind direction hourly data for a period of 14 years between 1970 and 1983 is used in the analysis. The analysis showed that the seasonal and diurnal pattern of wind speed matches the electricity load pattern of the location. Higher winds of the order of 5.0 m/s and more were observed during the summer months of the year and noon hours (09:00 to 16:00 h) of the day. The wind duration availability is discussed as the percent of hours during which the wind remained in certain wind speed intervals or bins. Wind energy calculations were performed using wind machines of sizes 150, 250, 600, 800, 1000, 1300, 1500, 2300 and 2500 kW rated power. Wind speed is found to remain above 3.5 m/s for 69% of the time during the year at 40, 50, 60, and 80 m above ground level. The energy production analysis showed higher production from wind machines of smaller sizes than the bigger ones for a wind farm of 30 MW installed capacity. Similarly, higher capacity factors were obtained for smaller wind machines compared to larger ones

  12. The Use of Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.

    1999-01-01

    An important component of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind resource assessment methodology is the use of available upper-air data to construct detailed vertical profiles for a study region. Currently, the most useful upper-air data for this type of analysis are archived observations from approximately 1800 rawinsonde and pilot balloon stations worldwide. However, significant uncertainty exists in the accuracy of the constructed profiles for many regions. The United States Reanalysis Data Set, recently created by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, has the potential to improve the quality of the vertical profiles. The initial evaluation of the usefulness of the Reanalysis data for wind resource assessment consisted of contrasting reanalysis-derived vertical profiles of the wind characteristics to those generated from upper-air observations for comparable locations. The results indicate that, while reanalysis data can be substituted for upper-air observation data in the assessment methodology for areas of the world where observation data are limited, enough discrepancies with observation data have been noticed to warrant further studies

  13. Resource-estimation models and predicted discovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, G.W.

    1982-01-01

    Resources have been estimated by predictive extrapolation from past discovery experience, by analogy with better explored regions, or by inference from evidence of depletion of targets for exploration. Changes in technology and new insights into geological mechanisms have occurred sufficiently often in the long run to form part of the pattern of mature discovery experience. The criterion, that a meaningful resource estimate needs an objective measure of its precision or degree of uncertainty, excludes 'estimates' based solely on expert opinion. This is illustrated by development of error measures for several persuasive models of discovery and production of oil and gas in USA, both annually and in terms of increasing exploration effort. Appropriate generalizations of the models resolve many points of controversy. This is illustrated using two USA data sets describing discovery of oil and of U 3 O 8 ; the latter set highlights an inadequacy of available official data. Review of the oil-discovery data set provides a warrant for adjusting the time-series prediction to a higher resource figure for USA petroleum. (author)

  14. Using meteorological forecasts in on-line predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    This report describes a model investigation into wind power prediction model as well as a tool for predicting the power production from wind turbines in an area - the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT). The predictions are based on on-line measurements of power production for a selected set...

  15. Down-scaling wind energy resource from mesoscale to local scale by nesting and data assimilation with a CFD model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duraisamy Jothiprakasam, Venkatesh

    2014-01-01

    The development of wind energy generation requires precise and well-established methods for wind resource assessment, which is the initial step in every wind farm project. During the last two decades linear flow models were widely used in the wind industry for wind resource assessment and micro-siting. But the linear models inaccuracies in predicting the wind speeds in very complex terrain are well known and led to use of CFD, capable of modeling the complex flow in details around specific geographic features. Mesoscale models (NWP) are able to predict the wind regime at resolutions of several kilometers, but are not well suited to resolve the wind speed and turbulence induced by the topography features on the scale of a few hundred meters. CFD has proven successful in capturing flow details at smaller scales, but needs an accurate specification of the inlet conditions. Thus coupling NWP and CFD models is a better modeling approach for wind energy applications. A one-year field measurement campaign carried out in a complex terrain in southern France during 2007-2008 provides a well-documented data set both for input and validation data. The proposed new methodology aims to address two problems: the high spatial variation of the topography on the domain lateral boundaries, and the prediction errors of the mesoscale model. It is applied in this work using the open source CFD code Code-Saturne, coupled with the mesoscale forecast model of Meteo-France (ALADIN). The improvement is obtained by combining the mesoscale data as inlet condition and field measurement data assimilation into the CFD model. Newtonian relaxation (nudging) data assimilation technique is used to incorporate the measurement data into the CFD simulations. The methodology to reconstruct long term averages uses a clustering process to group the similar meteorological conditions and to reduce the number of CFD simulations needed to reproduce 1 year of atmospheric flow over the site. The assimilation

  16. A history of wind erosion prediction models in the United States Department of Agriculture: The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Development of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) was officially inaugurated in 1985 by United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) scientists in response to customer requests, particularly those coming from the USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS), for im...

  17. Model Predictive Control for Load Frequency Control with Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable load frequency (LFC control is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC based on coordination scheme. The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The scheme incorporates the two critical nonlinear constraints, for example, the generation rate constraint (GRC and the valve limit, into convex optimization problems. Furthermore, the algorithm reduces the impact on the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and that without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Good performance is obtained in the presence of power system nonlinearities due to the governors and turbines constraints and load change disturbances.

  18. Wind Energy Based Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Sitting. A GIS/Wind Resource Assessment Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Xydis

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The transportation sector is severely correlated with major problems in environment, citizens’ health, climate and economy. Issues such as traffic, fuel cost and parking space have make life more difficult, especially in the dense urban environment. Thus, there is a great need for the development of the electric vehicle (EV sector. The number of cars in cities has increased so much that the current transportation system (roads, parking places, traffic lights, etc. cannot accommodate them properly. The increasing number of vehicles does not affect only humans but also the environment, through air and noise pollution. According to EPA, the 39.2% of total gas emissions in 2007 was caused by transportation activities. Studies have shown that the pollutants are not only gathered in the major roads and/or highways but can travel depending on the meteorological conditions leading to generic pollution. The promotion of EVs and the charging stations are both equally required to be further developed in order EVs to move out of the cities and finally confront the range problem. In this work, a wind resource and a GIS analysis optimizes in a wider area the sitting of wind based charging stations and proposes an optimizing methodology.

  19. Incorporating Wind Power Forecast Uncertainties Into Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2015-09-01

    Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

  20. The statistical prediction of offshore winds from land-based data for wind-energy applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walmsley, J.L.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Burrows, W.R.

    2001-01-01

    Land-based meteorological measurements at two locations on the Danish coast are used to predict offshore wind speeds. Offshore wind-speed data are used only for developing the statistical prediction algorithms and for verification. As a first step, the two datasets were separated into nine...... percentile-based bins, with a minimum of 30 data records in each bin. Next, the records were randomly selected with approximately 70% of the data in each bin being used as a training set for development of the prediction algorithms, and the remaining 30% being reserved as a test set for evaluation purposes....... The binning procedure ensured that both training and test sets fairly represented the overall data distribution. To base the conclusions on firmer ground, five permutations of these training and test sets were created. Thus, all calculations were based on five cases, each one representing a different random...

  1. Atlas de Recursos Eólicos del Estado de Oaxaca (The Spanish version of Wind Energy Resource Atlas of Oaxaca)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; Scott, G.; Haymes, S.; Heimiller, D.; George, R.

    2004-04-01

    The Oaxaca Wind Resource Atlas, produced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) wind resource group, is the result of an extensive mapping study for the Mexican State of Oaxaca. This atlas identifies the wind characteristics and distribution of the wind resource in Oaxaca. The detailed wind resource maps and other information contained in the atlas facilitate the identification of prospective areas for use of wind energy technologies, both for utility-scale power generation and off-grid wind energy applications.

  2. Statistical characterization of roughness uncertainty and impact on wind resource estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kelly, Mark C.; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2017-01-01

    In this work we relate uncertainty in background roughness length (z0) to uncertainty in wind speeds, where the latter are predicted at a wind farm location based on wind statistics observed at a different site. Sensitivity of predicted winds to roughness is derived analytically for the industry...... between mean wind speed and AEP. Following our developments, we provide guidance on approximate roughness uncertainty magnitudes to be expected in industry practice, and we also find that sites with larger background roughness incur relatively larger uncertainties.......-standard European Wind Atlas method, which is based on the geostrophic drag law. We statistically consider roughness and its corresponding uncertainty, in terms of both z0 derived from measured wind speeds as well as that chosen in practice by wind engineers. We show the combined effect of roughness uncertainty...

  3. Wind Resource Variations Over Selected Sites in the West African Sub-Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iheonu, E. E.; Akingbade, F.O A.; Ocholi, M.

    2002-01-01

    The analysis of wind characteristics and wind resource potentials at 4 locations in the West African sub-region is presented, applying data obtained at the Ibadan central station of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA-Ibadan, Nigeria). The study has shown that the annual variations of wind speed have coefficient of variability between 10 and 15% but the available wind power at the studied locations is generally poor with values ranging between 2 and 10 Wm2 at the standard meteorological height of 10 m. Cotonou (Lat. 6.4 0 N, Long. 2.3 0 E) Benin Republic has however been distinguished from the other three locations in Nigeria, as the most promising site for wind resource development and utilization in the sub-region. With appropriate choice of wind turbine characteristics and design efficiency, establishing wind farms at the Cotonou location for electrical energy production could be feasible

  4. Wind energy resource atlas. Volume 8. The southern Rocky Mountain region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, S.R.; Freeman, D.L.; Hadley, D.L.; Elliott, D.L.; Barchet, W.R.; George, R.L.

    1981-03-01

    The Southern Rocky Mountain atlas assimilates five collections of wind resource data: one for the region and one for each of the four states that compose the Southern Rocky Mountain region (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). At the state level, features of the climate, topography and wind resource are discussed in greater detail than is provided in the regional discussion, and the data locations on which the assessment is based are mapped. Variations, over several time scales, in the wind resource at selected stations in each state are shown on graphs of monthly average and interannual wind speed and power, and hourly average wind speed for each season. Other graphs present speed, direction, and duration frequencies of the wind at these locations.

  5. 76 FR 36532 - Iberdrola Renewables, Inc., PacifiCorp, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, Invenergy Wind North...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-22

    ... Renewables, Inc., PacifiCorp, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, Invenergy Wind North America LLC, Horizon Wind...), Iberdrola Renewables, Inc., PacifiCorp, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, Invenergy Wind North America LLC, and Horizon Wind Energy LLC (Complainants) filed a formal complaint against Bonneville Power Administration...

  6. Combining the VAS 3D interpolation method and Wind Atlas methodology to produce a high-resolution wind resource map for the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanslian, David; Hošek, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 77, May (2015), s. 291-299 ISSN 0960-1481 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : wind resource map * wind field modelling * wind measurements * wind climatology * Czech Republic * WAsP Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.404, year: 2015 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148114008398#

  7. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp, Derek van der [University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Curry, Charles L. [Environment Canada University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979-2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well. (orig.)

  8. Offshore Wind Resource Estimation in Mediterranean Area Using SAR Images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calaudi, Rosamaria; Arena, Felice; Badger, Merete

    Satellite observations of the ocean surface from Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR) provide information about the spatial wind variability over large areas. This is of special interest in the Mediterranean, where spatial wind information is only provided by sparse buoys, often with long periods of m...

  9. Assessment of wind resources and annual energy production of wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    the last 17 years. In Denmark the plan is to increase to 50% share of total electricity consumption in 2020 compared to 26% in 2011. In EU this was 6.3% in 2011. In EU new installed wind power was 9 GW and 0.8 GW, onshore and offshore, respectively, in 2011. The total capacity in Europe is 96 GW......Wind energy provides a significant share of EU’s renewable energy source. It is anticipated in the European Commission (EC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) that wind energy expands further. Wind energy has had an annual growth of 15.6% during...

  10. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G

    2014-01-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine

  11. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.

    2014-06-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to

  12. Application of an atmospheric CFD code to wind resource assessment in complex terrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laporte, Laurent

    2008-01-01

    This thesis is organized in two parts. The first part presents the use of the atmospheric CFD code Mercure Saturne to estimate the wind resource in complex terrain. A measurement campaign was led by EDF to obtain data for validation. A methodology was developed using meso-scale profiles as boundary conditions. Clustering of meteorological situations was used to reduce the number of simulations needed to calculate the wind resource. The validation of the code on the Askervein hill, the methodology and comparisons with measurements from the complex site are presented. The second part presents the modeling of wakes with the Mercure Saturne code. Forces, generated by the blades on the wind, are modeled by source terms, calculated by the BEM method. Two comparisons are proposed to validate the method: the first compares the numerical model with wind tunnel measurements from a small wind turbine, the second with measurements made on porous disks in an atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnel (author) [fr

  13. Wind resources at turbine height from Envisat and Sentinel-1 SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Merete; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    for the standard output level of 10 m above the sea surface. This presentation demonstrates the effects of two recent improvements related to satellite-based wind resource mapping: 1) The number of satellite samples has increased dramatically since the launch of Sentinel-1A/B 2) A new method looks promising...... National Ice Center. Once the instantaneous wind maps are stored in our database, they can be organized as time series in order to calculate wind resources for any point location or area. Since the time series comprises data from both Envisat and Sentinel-1, a check of the data calibration against one....... To extrapolate the 10-m wind resource maps from SAR to higher levels within the atmospheric boundary layer, we estimate a wind profile for each grid cell in the maps. Simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used to correct this profile for long-term atmospheric stability effects...

  14. Danish-Czech wind resource know-how transfer project. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rathmann, O.; Noergaerd, P.; Frandsen, S.

    2004-06-01

    The course of the Danish-Czech Wind Resource Know-how Transfer Project is reported. The know-how transfer component of the project has consisted in performing a wind resource training work-shop for about 13 individuals from the Czech Republic, ranging from scientists to wind farm project developers, and in donating modern software for evaluating wind resources. The project has also included a review of a Czech overview-study of wind speeds inside the country as well as an investigation of the electricity tariffs and their impact on wind energy utilization in the Czech Republic. A problematic existing Czech wind farm project, locked up in a no-production situation, was also addressed. Not until the purchase by a new owner-company, which initiated the necessary repair and maintenance, the wind farm resumed normal operation. As its last task, the present project assisted in consolidating future operation through a helping package consisting of a training course for the wind farm technicians and in a package of relevant spare parts. (au)

  15. COMPLEX MAPPING OF ENERGY RESOURCES FOR ALLOCATION OF SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY OBJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Novakovskiy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents developed methodology of solar and wind energy resources complex mapping at the regional level, taking into account the environmental and socio-economic factors affecting the placement of renewable energy facilities. Methodology provides a reasonable search and allocation of areas, the most promising for the placement of wind and solar power plants.

  16. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  17. Wind Energy Resource Atlas. Volume 11. Hawaii and Pacific Islands Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schroeder, T.A.; Hori, A.M.; Elliott, D.L.; Barchet, W.R.; George, R.L.

    1981-02-01

    This atlas of the wind energy resource is composed of introductory and background information, and assessments of the wind resource in each division of the region. Background on how the wind resource is assessed and on how the results of the assessment should be inerpreted is presented. An introduction and outline to the descriptions of the wind resource for each division are provided. Assessments for individual divisions are presented as separate chapters. Much of the information in the division chapters is given in graphic or tabular form. The sequences for each chapter are similar, but some presentations used for Hawaii are inappropriate or impractical for presentation with the Pacific Islands. Hawaii chapter figure and tables are cited below and appropriate Pacific Islands figure and table numbers are included in brackets ().

  18. Performance and wake predictions of HAWTs in wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leclerc, C.; Masson, C.; Paraschivoiu, I. [Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    The present contribution proposes and describes a promising way towards performance prediction of an arbitrary array of turbines. It is based on the solution of the time-averaged, steady-state, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an appropriate turbulence closure model. The turbines are represented by distributions of momentum sources in the Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, the applicability and viability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an axisymmetric implementation. The k-{epsilon} model has been chosen for the closure of the time-averaged, turbulent flow equations and the properties of the incident flow correspond to those of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a Control-Volume Finite Element Method (CVFEM). Detailed results have been obtained using the proposed method for an isolated wind turbine and for two turbines one behind another. In the case of an isolated turbine, accurate wake velocity deficit predictions are obtained and an increase in power due to atmospheric turbulence is found in agreement with measurements. In the case of two turbines, the proposed methodology provides an appropriate modelling of the wind-turbine wake and a realistic prediction of the performance degradation of the downstream turbine.

  19. Optimum sizing of wind-battery systems incorporating resource uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Anindita; Kedare, Shireesh B.; Bandyopadhyay, Santanu

    2010-01-01

    The inherent uncertainty of the wind is a major impediment for successful implementation of wind based power generation technology. A methodology has been proposed in this paper to incorporate wind speed uncertainty in sizing wind-battery system for isolated applications. The uncertainty associated with the wind speed is incorporated using chance constraint programming approach. For a pre-specified reliability requirement, a deterministic equivalent energy balance equation may be derived from the chance constraint that allows time series simulation of the entire system. This results in a generation of the entire set of feasible design options, satisfying different system level constraints, on a battery capacity vs. generator rating diagram, also known as the design space. The proposed methodology highlights the trade-offs between the wind turbine rating, rotor diameter and the battery size for a given reliability of power supply. The optimum configuration is chosen on the basis of the minimum cost of energy (US$/kWh). It is shown with the help of illustrative examples that the proposed methodology is generic and flexible to incorporate alternate sub-component models. (author)

  20. Map-Based Repowering and Reorganization of a Wind Resource Area to Minimize Burrowing Owl and Other Bird Fatalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Neher

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 × 10 m2 grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California’s 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard.

  1. Map-based repowering and reorganization of a wind resource area to minimize burrowing owl and other bird fatalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smallwood, K. S. [Research Ecologist, 3108 Finch Street, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Neher, L. [Gis Specialist, Neher Consulting, 7241 34th Street, North Highlands, CA 95660 (United States); Bell, D. A. [East Bay Regional Park District, 2950 Peralta Oaks Court, Oakland, CA 94605-0381 (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (Alameda/Contra Costa Counties, California, USA) generate about 730 GWh of electricity annually, but have been killing thousands of birds each year, including >2,000 raptors and hundreds of burrowing owls. We have developed collision hazard maps and hazard ratings of wind turbines to guide relocation of existing wind turbines and careful repowering to modern turbines to reduce burrowing owl fatalities principally, and other birds secondarily. Burrowing owls selected burrow sites lower on slopes and on smaller, shallower slopes than represented by the average 10 x 10 m{sup 2} grid cell among 187,908 grid cells sampled from 2,281,169 grid cells comprising a digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area. Fuzzy logic and discriminant function analysis produced likelihood surfaces encompassing most burrowing owl burrows within a fraction of the study area, and the former corresponded with burrowing owl fatalities and the latter with other raptor fatalities. Our ratings of wind turbine hazard were more predictive of burrowing owl fatalities, but would be more difficult to implement. Careful repowering to modern wind turbines would most reduce fatalities of burrowing owls and other birds while adding about 1,000 GWh annually toward California's 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard. (author)

  2. PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altab Hossain

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

  3. PREDICTION OF POWER GENERATION OF SMALL SCALE VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINE USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Altab Md. Hossain

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy from the wind turbine has been focused for the alternative source of power generation due to the following advances of the of the wind turbine. Firstly, the wind turbine is highly efficient and eco-friendly. Secondly, the turbine has the ability to response for the changeable power generation based on the wind velocity and structural framework. However, the competitive efficiency of the wind turbine is necessary to successfully alternate the conventional power sources. The most relevant factor which affects the overall efficiency of the wind turbine is the wind velocity and the relative turbine dimensions. Artificial intelligence systems are widely used technology that can learn from examples and are able to deal with non-linear problems. Compared with traditional approach, fuzzy logic approach is more efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between wind turbine power generation and wind velocity, and to illustrate how fuzzy expert system might play an important role in prediction of wind turbine power generation. The main purpose of the measurement over the small scaled prototype vertical axis wind turbine for the wind velocity is to predict the performance of full scaled H-type vertical axis wind turbine. Prediction of power generation at the different wind velocities has been tested at the Thermal Laboratory of Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL and results concerning the daily prediction have been obtained.

  4. Wind resource and plant output data sets for wind integration studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Jaclyn D.; Manobianco, John; Alonge, Charles J.; Brower, Michael C. [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2010-07-01

    One of the first step towards understanding the impact of increasing penetrations of wind is developing data sets of wind power output over large regions. To facilitate the development of these data sets, AWS Truepower (AWST) generated wind speeds over multiple years (2-3) using the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). These simulations were performed with high spatial resolution (1-2 km) to capture the wind flows over each area of interest. Output was saved in 10-minute interval to capture variations in wind speed so that plant output could be analyzed against utility load and system operations. This paper will describe the methodology of mesoscale modeling, site selection, conversion to power, and downscaling to high frequency output. Additionally, the generation of synthetic forecasts will be discussed. The validation results from recent studies in the eastern United States and Hawaii will be highlighted. (orig.)

  5. Predicting wind shear effects: A study of Minnesota wind data collected at heights up to 70 meters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artig, R. [Minnesota Dept. of Public Service, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Minnesota Department of Public Service (DPS) collects wind data at carefully selected sites around the state and analyzes the data to determine Minnesota`s wind power potential. DPS recently installed advanced new monitoring equipment at these sites and began to collect wind data at 30, 50, and 70 meters above ground level, with two anemometers at each level. Previously, the Department had not collected data at heights above ground level higher than 30 meters. DPS also, with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), installed four sophisticated monitoring sites as part of a Tall Tower Wind Shear Study that is assessing the effects of wind shear on wind power potential. At these sites, wind data are being collected at the 10, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 meter heights. This paper presents the preliminary results of the analysis of wind data from all sites. These preliminary results indicate that the traditional 1/7 power law does not effectively predict wind shear in Minnesota, and the result is an underestimation of Minnesota`s wind power potential at higher heights. Using a power factor of 1/5 or 1/4 may be more accurate and provide sound justification for installing wind turbines on taller towers in Minnesota.

  6. Analysis of available wind resources and their suitability for hydrogen production in the Sacramento area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartholomy, O.J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper looks at the technical, economic, environmental and regulatory barriers to the production of hydrogen from local wind resources in Sacramento, CA. Both central and distributed hydrogen generation are compared. The technical analysis uses 6 years of hourly wind data from Solano County to define the diurnal and seasonal wind resource. The impacts of a fluctuating power source on the electrolyzer are examined as well as the grid or hydrogen distribution and storage infrastructure constraints for implementation. An economic analysis comparing the price of hydrogen produced from the local wind resource is done with sensitivity analyses for capital and operating costs of both wind turbines and electrolyzers. In addition, the economic analysis includes considerations of increased demand for wind electricity by California utilities attempting to meet their Renewable Portfolio Standards. The environmental analysis compares the emissions reductions of CO 2 and criteria pollutants for different energy usage scenarios. These include comparing electricity and transportation emissions rates to optimize the use of wind energy and natural gas, as well as comparison of SULEV hybrid vehicles with FCV's and H 2 ICE's. Finally, an examination of the existing regulatory structure and policies that could prevent or encourage the use of wind to produce hydrogen in Sacramento is also included. (author)

  7. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  8. A CASE STUDY OF CHINA ́S WIND POWER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Yanping

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available At present, China is the largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer in the world. With the increasing pressure to cut GHS emissions and to improve energy efficiency, China is now changing its traditional energy mix, mainly through consuming more renewable energy instead of fossil energy. This change has resulted in a policy adjustment which in turn boosts the utilization of the wind power resources. However, the development of the wind power resources in China is confronted with some significant challenges, such as greater installed electricity capacity than the electricity generation, greater electricity generation than the electricity transmission capacity and greater inland wind power generation than the offshore wind power generation. Therefore, the further development of China’s wind power electricity in the coming years depends largely on the ways these challenges will be addressed.

  9. Analysis the Transient Process of Wind Power Resources when there are Voltage Sags in Distribution Grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nhu Y, Do

    2018-03-01

    Vietnam has many advantages of wind power resources. Time by time there are more and more capacity as well as number of wind power project in Vietnam. Corresponding to the increase of wind power emitted into national grid, It is necessary to research and analyze in order to ensure the safety and reliability of win power connection. In national distribution grid, voltage sag occurs regularly, it can strongly influence on the operation of wind power. The most serious consequence is the disconnection. The paper presents the analysis of distribution grid's transient process when voltage is sagged. Base on the analysis, the solutions will be recommended to improve the reliability and effective operation of wind power resources.

  10. Practical Robust Optimization Method for Unit Commitment of a System with Integrated Wind Resource

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanchao Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Unit commitment, one of the significant tasks in power system operations, faces new challenges as the system uncertainty increases dramatically due to the integration of time-varying resources, such as wind. To address these challenges, we propose the formulation and solution of a generalized unit commitment problem for a system with integrated wind resources. Given the prespecified interval information acquired from real central wind forecasting system for uncertainty representation of nodal wind injections with their correlation information, the proposed unit commitment problem solution is computationally tractable and robust against all uncertain wind power injection realizations. We provide a solution approach to tackle this problem with complex mathematical basics and illustrate the capabilities of the proposed mixed integer solution approach on the large-scale power system of the Northwest China Grid. The numerical results demonstrate that the approach is realistic and not overly conservative in terms of the resulting dispatch cost outcomes.

  11. The value of co-locating energy storage with wind resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, C. [Victoria Univ., BC (Canada). Inst. for Integrated Energy Systems

    2010-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation discussed the value of wind energy storage systems. The systems can be used to downsize transmission requirements and to minimize reliability and forecast uncertainty. Revenue factors in relation to wind power energy storage are determined by the amount of wind power produced each hour with the wind farm capacity and hourly electricity price. Case studies of a wind farm in Ontario over a period of 20 years were used to determine capacity and revenue factors as well as gross revenues. The maximum revenue factor was determined by multiplying the greatest wind energy output by the highest electricity prices. A hybrid wind farm energy storage system was designed to determine energy storage discharges and charges to and from the grid at pool prices. The method allowed for time-shifts in wind generation resources and downsized transmission requirements for remote resources. The mixed integer linear program model co-optimized revenues from the wind farm and the energy storage facility. Combined output was constrained to the transmission capacity. Transmission losses were neglected, and capital costs were considered. Future studies are needed to determine levelized electricity costs under different load growth scenarios. tabs., figs.

  12. Statistical characterization of roughness uncertainty and impact on wind resource estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kelly

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work we relate uncertainty in background roughness length (z0 to uncertainty in wind speeds, where the latter are predicted at a wind farm location based on wind statistics observed at a different site. Sensitivity of predicted winds to roughness is derived analytically for the industry-standard European Wind Atlas method, which is based on the geostrophic drag law. We statistically consider roughness and its corresponding uncertainty, in terms of both z0 derived from measured wind speeds as well as that chosen in practice by wind engineers. We show the combined effect of roughness uncertainty arising from differing wind-observation and turbine-prediction sites; this is done for the case of roughness bias as well as for the general case. For estimation of uncertainty in annual energy production (AEP, we also develop a generalized analytical turbine power curve, from which we derive a relation between mean wind speed and AEP. Following our developments, we provide guidance on approximate roughness uncertainty magnitudes to be expected in industry practice, and we also find that sites with larger background roughness incur relatively larger uncertainties.

  13. A new approach to very short term wind speed prediction using k-nearest neighbor classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Wind speed parameter was predicted in an n-tupled inputs using k-NN classification. ► The effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics were analyzed. ► Many useful and reasonable inferences were uncovered using the developed model. - Abstract: Wind energy is an inexhaustible energy source and wind power production has been growing rapidly in recent years. However, wind power has a non-schedulable nature due to wind speed variations. Hence, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. This paper predicts wind speed parameter in an n-tupled inputs using k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification and analyzes the effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics on wind speed prediction. The k-NN classification model was developed using the object oriented programming techniques and includes Manhattan and Minkowski distance metrics except from Euclidean distance metric on the contrary of literature. The k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity parameters in a 4-tupled space achieved the best wind speed prediction for k = 5 in the Manhattan distance metric. Differently, the k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature and atmospheric pressure parameters in a 3-tupled inputs gave the worst wind speed prediction for k = 1 in the Minkowski distance metric

  14. Evaluation of the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chen, Chun-Lung; Tu, Yi-Long; Yeh, Hung-Te; Wu, Yu-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new statistical downscaling framework to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. • The statistical model relates Weibull distribution parameters to output of a GCM model and regression coefficients. • Validation of the simulated wind speed distribution presents an acceptable agreement with meteorological data. • Three chosen GCMs show the same tendency that the eastern half of Taiwan Strait stores higher wind resources. - Abstract: A new statistical downscaling framework is proposed to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. In this framework, a two-parameter Weibull distribution function is used to estimate the wind energy density distribution in the strait. An empirically statistical downscaling model that relates the Weibull parameters to output of a General Circulation Model (GCM) and regression coefficients is adopted. The regression coefficients are calculated using wind speed results obtained from a past climate (1981–2000) simulation reconstructed by a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These WRF-reconstructed wind speed results are validated with data collected at a weather station on an islet inside the strait. The comparison shows that the probability distributions of the monthly wind speeds obtained from WRF-reconstructed and measured wind speed data are in acceptable agreement, with small discrepancies of 10.3% and 7.9% for the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution, respectively. The statistical downscaling framework with output from three chosen GCMs (i.e., ECHAM5, CM2.1 and CGCM2.3.2) is applied to evaluate the wind energy density distribution in Taiwan Strait for three future climate periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. The results show that the wind energy density distributions in the future climate periods are higher in the eastern half of Taiwan Strait, but reduce slightly by 3% compared with that in the

  15. A Transmission-Cost-Based Model to Estimate the Amount of Market-Integrable Wind Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    are made to share the expenses in transmission derived from their integration, they may see the doors of electricity markets closed for not being competitive enough. This paper presents a model to decide the amount of wind resources that are economically exploitable at a given location from a transmission......In the pursuit of the large-scale integration of wind power production, it is imperative to evaluate plausible frictions among the stochastic nature of wind generation, electricity markets, and the investments in transmission required to accommodate larger amounts of wind. If wind producers......-cost perspective. This model accounts for the uncertain character of wind by using a modeling framework based on stochastic optimization, simulates market barriers by means of a bi-level structure, and considers the financial risk of investments in transmission through the conditional value-at-risk. The major...

  16. Results from utility wind resource assessment programs in Nebraska, Colorado, and Arizona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drapeau, C.L. [Global Energy Concepts, Inc., Bothell, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Global Energy Concepts (GEC) has been retained by utilities in Colorado, Nebraska, and Arizona to site, install, and operate 21 wind monitoring stations as part of the Utility Wind Resource Assessment Program (U*WRAP). Preliminary results indicate wind speed averages at 40 meters (132 ft) of 6.5 - 7.4 m/s (14.5-16.5 mph) in Nebraska and 7.6 - 8.9 m/s (17.0-19.9 mph) in Colorado. The Arizona stations are not yet operational. This paper presents the history and current status of the 21 monitoring stations as well as preliminary data results. Information on wind speeds, wind direction, turbulence intensity, wind shear, frequency distribution, and data recovery rates are provided.

  17. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  18. Repetitive model predictive approach to individual pitch control of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Stoustrup, Jakob; Odgaard, Peter Fogh

    2011-01-01

    prediction. As a consequence, individual pitch feed-forward control action is generated by the controller, taking ”future” wind disturbance into account. Information about the estimated wind spatial distribution one blade experience can be used in the prediction model to better control the next passing blade......Wind turbines are inherently exposed to nonuniform wind fields with of wind shear, tower shadow, and possible wake contributions. Asymmetrical aerodynamic rotor loads are a consequence of such periodic, repetitive wind disturbances experienced by the blades. A controller may estimate and use...... this peculiar disturbance pattern to better attenuate loads and regulate power by controlling the blade pitch angles individually. A novel model predictive (MPC) approach for individual pitch control of wind turbines is proposed in this paper. A repetitive wind disturbance model is incorporated into the MPC...

  19. On the Wind Energy Resource and Its Trend in the East China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adekunle Ayodotun Osinowo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study utilizes a 30-year (1980–2009 10 m wind field dataset obtained from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast to investigate the wind energy potential in the East China Sea (ECS by using Weibull shape and scale parameters. The region generally showed good wind characteristics. The calculated annual mean of the wind power resource revealed the potential of the region for large-scale grid-connected wind turbine applications. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variations showed strong trends in wind power in regions surrounding Taiwan Island. These regions were evaluated with high wind potential and were rated as excellent locations for installation of large wind turbines for electrical energy generation. Nonsignificant and negative trends dominated the ECS and the rest of the regions; therefore, these locations were found to be suitable for small wind applications. The wind power density exhibited an insignificant trend in the ECS throughout the study period. The trend was strongest during spring and weakest during autumn.

  20. U.S. Virgin Islands Wind Resources Update 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, J. O.; Warren, A.

    2014-12-01

    This report summarizes the data collected from two 60-meter meteorological towers and three sonic detection and ranging units on St. Thomas and St. Croix in 2012 and 2013. These results are an update to the previous feasibility study; the collected data are critical to the successful development of a wind project at either site.

  1. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Natarajan, Anand

    2015-01-01

    (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses...... distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against...... the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules. The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model...

  2. Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baxevani, Anastassia; Lenzi, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques...

  3. U.S. Department of Energy Regional Resource Centers Report: State of the Wind Industry in the Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranowski, Ruth [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United St; Oteri, Frank [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United St; Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United St; Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United St

    2016-03-01

    The wind industry and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing technical challenges to increasing wind energy's contribution to the national grid (such as reducing turbine costs and increasing energy production and reliability), and they recognize that public acceptance issues can be challenges for wind energy deployment. Wind project development decisions are best made using unbiased information about the benefits and impacts of wind energy. In 2014, DOE established six wind Regional Resource Centers (RRCs) to provide information about wind energy, focusing on regional qualities. This document summarizes the status and drivers for U.S. wind energy development on regional and state levels. It is intended to be a companion to DOE's 2014 Distributed Wind Market Report, 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, and 2014 Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis that provide assessments of the national wind markets for each of these technologies.

  4. Integrated resource planning - a long and winding road

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, A.L.

    1995-01-01

    The separation of Croatia from former Yugoslavia and the military turbulence at its borders during the last years caused a number of problems in the Croatian energy system. Resources for improving the situation are scarce. So it is necessary to plan the rehabilitation and modernization of the Croatian energy system in a way which includes all national resources and allocates these resources where they lead to the highest benefits to the national economy. In this paper it is shown that Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) is such a method which enables the rational use of national resources. Also presented in this paper is a transparent and rational procedure which allows the energy planner to support the decision maker in developing an energy policy under consideration of interests of affected groups. This procedure is called Structured Analysis Procedure and step by step leads from the problem formulation to the decision on which action is to be applied to solve the problem. (author)

  5. Wind deployment in the United States: states, resources, policy, and discourse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Elizabeth J; Stephens, Jennie C

    2009-12-15

    A transformation in the way the United States produces and uses energy is needed to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets for climate change mitigation. Wind power is an important low-carbon technology and the most rapidly growing renewable energy technology in the U.S. Despite recent advances in wind deployment, significant state-by-state variation in wind power distribution cannot be explained solely by wind resource patterns nor by state policy. Other factors embedded within the state-level socio-political context also contribute to wind deployment patterns. We explore this socio-political context in four U.S. states by integrating multiple research methods. Through comparative state-level analysis of the energy system, energy policy, and public discourse as represented in the media, we examine variation in the context for wind deployment in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, and Texas. Our results demonstrate that these states have different patterns of wind deployment, are engaged in different debates about wind power, and appear to frame the risks and benefits of wind power in different ways. This comparative assessment highlights the complex variation of the state-level socio-political context and contributes depth to our understanding of energy technology deployment processes, decision-making, and outcomes.

  6. Optimal day-ahead wind-thermal unit commitment considering statistical and predicted features of wind speeds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Yanan; Dong, Jizhe; Ding, Lijuan

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A day–ahead wind–thermal unit commitment model is presented. • Wind speed transfer matrix is formed to depict the sequential wind features. • Spinning reserve setting considering wind power accuracy and variation is proposed. • Verified study is performed to check the correctness of the program. - Abstract: The increasing penetration of intermittent wind power affects the secure operation of power systems and leads to a requirement of robust and economic generation scheduling. This paper presents an optimal day–ahead wind–thermal generation scheduling method that considers the statistical and predicted features of wind speeds. In this method, the statistical analysis of historical wind data, which represents the local wind regime, is first implemented. Then, according to the statistical results and the predicted wind power, the spinning reserve requirements for the scheduling period are calculated. Based on the calculated spinning reserve requirements, the wind–thermal generation scheduling is finally conducted. To validate the program, a verified study is performed on a test system. Then, numerical studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method are conducted.

  7. On Practical tuning of Model Uncertainty in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) has in previous works been applied on wind turbines with promising results. These results apply linear MPC, i.e., linear models linearized at different operational points depending on the wind speed. The linearized models are derived from a nonlinear first principles...... model of a wind turbine. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this approach on the performance of a wind turbine. In particular, we focus on the most non-linear operational ranges of a wind turbine. The MPC controller is designed for, tested, and evaluated at an industrial high fidelity wind...

  8. Global assessment of onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Herran, Diego; Dai, Hancheng; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed global onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas in terms of transmission losses and costs, and visibility (landscape impact) restrictions. Including this factor decreased the economic potential considerably depending on the level of supply cost considered (at least 37% and 16% for an economic potential below 10 and 14 US cents/kWh, respectively). Its importance compared to other factors was secondary below 15 US cents/kWh. At higher costs it was secondary only to land use, and was more important than economic and technical factors. The impact of this factor was mixed across all regions of the world, given the heterogeneity of wind resources in remote and proximal areas. Regions where available resources decreased the most included the European Union, Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The supply cost chosen to evaluate the economic potential and uncertainties influencing the estimation of distance to the closest urban area are critical for the assessment. Neglecting the restrictions associated with integration into energy systems and social acceptability resulted in an overestimation of global onshore wind resources. These outcomes are fundamental for global climate policies because they help to clarify the limits of wind energy resource availability. - Highlights: • Global onshore wind resources were assessed including the distance to urban areas. • We evaluate the impact of transmission losses and cost, and visibility restrictions. • The distance to urban areas' impact was considerable, depending on the supply cost. • This factor's importance was secondary to economic, land use, and technical factors. • Neglecting this factor resulted in an overestimation of global wind resources.

  9. Wind Turbine Generator Efficiency Based on Powertrain Combination and Annual Power Generation Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongmyung Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbine generators are eco-friendly generators that produce electric energy using wind energy. In this study, wind turbine generator efficiency is examined using a powertrain combination and annual power generation prediction, by employing an analysis model. Performance testing was conducted in order to analyze the efficiency of a hydraulic pump and a motor, which are key components, and so as to verify the analysis model. The annual wind speed occurrence frequency for the expected installation areas was used to predict the annual power generation of the wind turbine generators. It was found that the parallel combination of the induction motors exhibited a higher efficiency when the wind speed was low and the serial combination showed higher efficiency when wind speed was high. The results of predicting the annual power generation considering the regional characteristics showed that the power generation was the highest when the hydraulic motors were designed in parallel and the induction motors were designed in series.

  10. Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land-sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases.

  11. Bird Mortaility at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: March 1998--September 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smallwood, K. S.; Thelander, C. G.

    2005-09-01

    Over the past 15 years, research has shown that wind turbines in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) kill many birds, including raptors, which are protected by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, and/or state and federal Endangered Species Acts. Early research in the APWRA on avian mortality mainly attempted to identify the extent of the problem. In 1998, however, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) initiated research to address the causal relationships between wind turbines and bird mortality. NREL funded a project by BioResource Consultants to perform this research directed at identifying and addressing the causes of mortality of various bird species from wind turbines in the APWRA.With 580 megawatts (MW) of installed wind turbine generating capacity in the APWRA, wind turbines there provide up to 1 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of emissions-free electricity annually. By identifying and implementing new methods and technologies to reduce or resolve bird mortality in the APWRA, power producers may be able to increase wind turbine electricity production at the site and apply similar mortality-reduction methods at other sites around the state and country.

  12. An analysis of wind and solar energy resources for the State of Kuwait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhusainan, Haya Nasser

    Kuwait is an important producer of oil and gas. Its rapid socio-economic growth has been characterized by increasing population, high rates of urbanization, and substantial industrialization, which is transforming it into a large big energy consumer as well. In addition to urbanization, climatic conditions have played an important function in increasing demand for electricity in Kuwait. Electricity for thermal cooling has become essential in the hot desert climate, and its use has developed rapidly along with the economic development, urbanization, and population growth. This study examines the long-term wind and solar resources over the Kuwait to determine the feasibility of these resources as potential sustainable and renewable energy sources. The ultimate goal of this research is to help identify the potential role of renewable energy in Kuwait. This study will examine the drivers and requirements for the deployment of these energy sources and their possible integration into the electricity generation sector to illustrate how renewable energy can be a suitable resource for power production in Kuwait and to illustrate how they can also be used to provide electricity for the country. For this study, data from sixteen established stations monitored by the meteorological department were analyzed. A solar resource map was developed that identifies the most suitable locations for solar farm development. A range of different relevant variables, including, for example, electric networks, population zones, fuel networks, elevation, water wells, streets, and weather stations, were combined in a geospatial analysis to predict suitable locations for solar farm development and placement. An analysis of recommendations, future energy targets and strategies for renewable energy policy in Kuwait are then conducted. This study was put together to identify issues and opportunities related to renewable energy in the region, since renewable energy technologies are still limited in

  13. Eight years of wind measurements from scatterometer for wind resource mapping in the Mediterranean Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Furevik, Birgitte R.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Cavaleri, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    that the scatterometer is able to provide similar long-term statistics as available from buoy data, such as annual and monthly wind indexes. Such statistics is useful to give an overview of the climatology in the different areas. The correlation between QuikScat and in situ observations is degraded towards the coast...

  14. The role of energy storage in accessing remote wind resources in the Midwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamy, Julian; Azevedo, Inês L.; Jaramillo, Paulina

    2014-01-01

    Replacing current generation with wind energy would help reduce the emissions associated with fossil fuel electricity generation. However, integrating wind into the electricity grid is not without cost. Wind power output is highly variable and average capacity factors from wind farms are often much lower than conventional generators. Further, the best wind resources with highest capacity factors are often located far away from load centers and accessing them therefore requires transmission investments. Energy storage capacity could be an alternative to some of the required transmission investment, thereby reducing capital costs for accessing remote wind farms. This work focuses on the trade-offs between energy storage and transmission. In a case study of a 200 MW wind farm in North Dakota to deliver power to Illinois, we estimate the size of transmission and energy storage capacity that yields the lowest average cost of generating and delivering electricity ($/MW h) from this farm. We find that transmission costs must be at least $600/MW-km and energy storage must cost at most $100/kW h in order for this application of energy storage to be economical. - Highlights: • We evaluate the break-even cost of energy storage to replace transmission. • We focus on a wind farm in North Dakota that must deliver power to Illinois. • Energy storage capital costs must be less than $100/kW h. • Transmission capital costs must be greater than $600/MW-km

  15. Wind energy in Vietnam: Resource assessment, development status and future implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Khanh Q.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study is to estimate the technical potential of wind energy in Vietnam and discuss strategies for promoting the market penetration of wind energy in the country. For the wind resource assessment, a geographical information system (GIS)- assisted approach has been developed. It is found that Vietnam has a good potential for wind energy. About 31,000 km 2 of land area can be available for wind development in which 865 km 2 equivalents to a wind power of 3572 MW has a generation cost less than 6 US cents/kWh. The study also proves that wind energy could be a good solution for about 300,000 rural non-electrified households. While wind energy brings about ecological, economic and social benefits, it is only modestly exploited in Vietnam, where the main barrier is the lack of political impetus and a proper framework for promoting renewable energy. The priority task therefore is to set a target for renewable energy development and to find instruments to achieve such a target. The main instruments proposed here are setting feed-in tariff and providing investment incentives

  16. Avian Monitoring and Risk Assessment at the San Gorgonio Wind Resource Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R.; Tom, J.; Neumann, N.; Erickson, W. P.; Strickland, M. D.; Bourassa, M.; Bay, K. J.; Sernka, K. J.

    2005-08-01

    The primary objective of this study at the San Gorgonio Wind Resource Area was to estimate and compare bird utilization, fatality rates, and the risk index among factors including bird taxonomic groups, wind turbine and reference areas, wind turbine sizes and types, and geographic locations. The key questions addressed to meet this objective include: (1) Are there any differences in the level of bird activity, called ''utilization rate'' or ''use'', with the operating wind plant and within the surrounding undeveloped areas (reference area)?; (2) Are there any differences in the rate of bird fatalities (or avian fatality) within the operating wind plant or the surrounding undeveloped areas (reference area)?; (3) Does bird use, fatality rates, or bird risk index vary according to the geographic location, type and size of wind turbine, and/or type of bird within the operating wind plant and surrounding undeveloped areas (reference area)?; and (4) How do raptor fatality rates at San Gorgonio compare to other wind projects with comparable data?

  17. Loading Analysis of Composite Wind Turbine Blade for Fatigue Life Prediction of Adhesively Bonded Root Joint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi-Majd, Davood; Azimzadeh, Vahid; Mohammadi, Bijan

    2015-06-01

    Nowadays wind energy is widely used as a non-polluting cost-effective renewable energy resource. During the lifetime of a composite wind turbine which is about 20 years, the rotor blades are subjected to different cyclic loads such as aerodynamics, centrifugal and gravitational forces. These loading conditions, cause to fatigue failure of the blade at the adhesively bonded root joint, where the highest bending moments will occur and consequently, is the most critical zone of the blade. So it is important to estimate the fatigue life of the root joint. The cohesive zone model is one of the best methods for prediction of initiation and propagation of debonding at the root joint. The advantage of this method is the possibility of modeling the debonding without any requirement to the remeshing. However in order to use this approach, it is necessary to analyze the cyclic loading condition at the root joint. For this purpose after implementing a cohesive interface element in the Ansys finite element software, one blade of a horizontal axis wind turbine with 46 m rotor diameter was modelled in full scale. Then after applying loads on the blade under different condition of the blade in a full rotation, the critical condition of the blade is obtained based on the delamination index and also the load ratio on the root joint in fatigue cycles is calculated. These data are the inputs for fatigue damage growth analysis of the root joint by using CZM approach that will be investigated in future work.

  18. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  19. Probabilistic stability and "tall" wind profiles: theory and method for use in wind resource assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kelly, Mark C.; Troen, Ib

    2016-01-01

    A model has been derived for calculating the aggregate effects of stability and the finite height of the planetary boundary layer upon the long-term mean wind profile. A practical implementation of this probabilistic extended similarity-theory model is made, including its incorporation within...... to the methodology. Results of the modeling are shown for a number of sites, with discussion of the models’ efficacy and the relative improvement shown by the new model, for situations where a user lacks local heat flux information, as well as performance of the new model using measured flux statistics. Further...... the European Wind Atlas (EWA) methodology for site-to-site application. Theoretical and practical implications of the EWA methodology are also derived and described, including unprecedented documentation of the theoretical framework encompassing vertical extrapolation, as well as some improvement...

  20. An appraisal of wind speed distribution prediction by soft computing methodologies: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Saboohi, Hadi; Abdul Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid; Protić, Milan; Zalnezhad, Erfan; Mirhashemi, Seyed Mohammad Amin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Probabilistic distribution functions of wind speed. • Two parameter Weibull probability distribution. • To build an effective prediction model of distribution of wind speed. • Support vector regression application as probability function for wind speed. - Abstract: The probabilistic distribution of wind speed is among the more significant wind characteristics in examining wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion systems. When the wind speed probability distribution is known, the wind energy distribution can be easily obtained. Therefore, the probability distribution of wind speed is a very important piece of information required in assessing wind energy potential. For this reason, a large number of studies have been established concerning the use of a variety of probability density functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions. Although the two-parameter Weibull distribution comprises a widely used and accepted method, solving the function is very challenging. In this study, the polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the kernel function of support vector regression (SVR) to estimate two parameters of the Weibull distribution function according to previously established analytical methods. Rather than minimizing the observed training error, SVR p oly and SVR r bf attempt to minimize the generalization error bound, so as to achieve generalized performance. According to the experimental results, enhanced predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved using the SVR approach compared to other soft computing methodologies

  1. Offshore Wind Resource, Cost, and Economic Potential in the State of Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Musial, Walter D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-12

    This report provides information for decision-makers about floating offshore wind technologies in the state of Maine. It summarizes research efforts performed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory between 2015 and 2017 to analyze the resource potential, cost of offshore wind, and economic potential of offshore wind from four primary reports: Musial et al. (2016); Beiter et al. (2016, 2017); and Mone et al. (unpublished). From Musial et al. (2016), Maine's technical offshore wind resource potential ranked seventh in the nation overall with more than 411 terawatt-hours/year of offshore resource generating potential. Although 90% of this wind resource is greater than 9.0-meters-per-second average velocity, most of the resource is over deep water, where floating wind technology is needed. Levelized cost of energy and levelized avoided cost of energy were computed to estimate the unsubsidized 'economic potential' for Maine in the year 2027 (Beiter et al. 2016, 2017). The studies found that Maine may have 65 gigawatts of economic potential by 2027, the highest of any U.S. state. Bottom-line costs for the Aqua Ventus project, which is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Technology Demonstration project, were released from a proprietary report written by NREL in 2016 for the University of Maine (Mone et al. unpublished). The report findings were that economies of scale and new technology advancements lowered the cost from $300/megawatt-hour (MWh) for the two-turbine 12-megawatt (MW) Aqua Ventus 1 project, to $126/MWh for the commercial-scale, 498-MW Aqua Ventus-2 project. Further cost reductions to $77/MWh were found when new technology advancements were applied for the 1,000-MW Aqua Ventus-3 project in 2030. No new analysis was conducted for this report.

  2. Wind and Solar Energy Resource Assessment for Navy Installations in the Midwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmenova, K.; Apling, D.; Higgins, G. J.; Carnes, J.; Smith, C.

    2012-12-01

    A stable supply of energy is critical for sustainable economic development and the ever-increasing demand for energy resources drives the need for alternative weather-driven renewable energy solutions such as solar and wind-generated power. Recognizing the importance of energy as a strategic resource, the Department of the Navy has focused on energy efficient solutions aiming to increase tactical and shore energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing alternative energy solutions will alleviate the Navy installations demands on the National power grid, however transitioning to renewable energy sources is a complex multi-stage process that involves initial investment in resource assessment and feasibility of building solar and wind power systems in Navy's facilities. This study focuses on the wind and solar energy resource assessment for Navy installations in the Midwestern US. We use the dynamically downscaled datasets at 12 km resolution over the Continental US generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to derive the wind climatology in terms of wind speed, direction, and wind power at 20 m above the surface for 65 Navy facilities. In addition, we derived the transmissivity of the atmosphere, diffuse radiation fraction, cloud cover and seasonal energy potential for a zenith facing surface with unobstructed horizon for each installation location based on the results of a broadband radiative transfer model and our cloud database based on 17-years of GOES data. Our analysis was incorporated in a GIS framework in combination with additional infrastructure data that enabled a synergistic resource assessment based on the combination of climatological and engineering factors.

  3. A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, I.G.; Page, S.C.; Williamson, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    The New Zealand electricity generation system is dominated by hydro generation at approximately 60% of installed capacity between 2005 and 2007, augmented with approximately 32% fossil-fuelled generation, plus minor contributions from geothermal, wind and biomass resources. In order to explore the potential for a 100% renewable electricity generation system with substantially increased levels of wind penetration, fossil-fuelled electricity production was removed from an historic 3-year data set, and replaced by modelled electricity production from wind, geothermal and additional peaking options. Generation mixes comprising 53-60% hydro, 22-25% wind, 12-14% geothermal, 1% biomass and 0-12% additional peaking generation were found to be feasible on an energy and power basis, whilst maintaining net hydro storage. Wind capacity credits ranged from 47% to 105% depending upon the incorporation of demand management, and the manner of operation of the hydro system. Wind spillage was minimised, however, a degree of residual spillage was considered to be an inevitable part of incorporating non-dispatchable generation into a stand-alone grid system. Load shifting was shown to have considerable advantages over installation of new peaking plant. Application of the approach applied in this research to countries with different energy resource mixes is discussed, and options for further research are outlined.

  4. Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sailor, David J.; Smith, Michael; Hart, Melissa

    2008-01-01

    Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. (author)

  5. Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

    1985-01-01

    This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

  6. How Many Model Evaluations Are Required To Predict The AEP Of A Wind Power Plant?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murcia, J P; Réthoré, P E; Natarajan, A; Sørensen, J D

    2015-01-01

    Wind farm flow models have advanced considerably with the use of large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations. The main limitation of these techniques is their high computational time requirements; which makes their use for wind farm annual energy production (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules.The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model evaluations for a general wind power plant is proposed based on the convergence of the present method for each case. (paper)

  7. Coordinated Voltage Control of a Wind Farm based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an autonomous wind farm voltage controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The reactive power compensation and voltage regulation devices of the wind farm include Static Var Compensators (SVCs), Static Var Generators (SVGs), Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and On...... are calculated based on an analytical method to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both voltage violated and normal operation conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to conduct case studies to verify the proposed coordinated...

  8. Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina

    To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

  9. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-01

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  10. A study of single multiplicative neuron model with nonlinear filters for hourly wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xuedong; Zhu, Zhiyu; Su, Xunliang; Fan, Shaosheng; Du, Zhaoping; Chang, Yanchao; Zeng, Qingjun

    2015-01-01

    Wind speed prediction is one important methods to guarantee the wind energy integrated into the whole power system smoothly. However, wind power has a non–schedulable nature due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty nature of wind speed. Therefore, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. Two new approaches for hourly wind speed prediction are developed in this study by integrating the single multiplicative neuron model and the iterated nonlinear filters for updating the wind speed sequence accurately. In the presented methods, a nonlinear state–space model is first formed based on the single multiplicative neuron model and then the iterated nonlinear filters are employed to perform dynamic state estimation on wind speed sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The suggested approaches are demonstrated using three cases wind speed data and are compared with autoregressive moving average, artificial neural network, kernel ridge regression based residual active learning and single multiplicative neuron model methods. Three types of prediction errors, mean absolute error improvement ratio and running time are employed for different models’ performance comparison. Comparison results from Tables 1–3 indicate that the presented strategies have much better performance for hourly wind speed prediction than other technologies. - Highlights: • Developed two novel hybrid modeling methods for hourly wind speed prediction. • Uncertainty and fluctuations of wind speed can be better explained by novel methods. • Proposed strategies have online adaptive learning ability. • Proposed approaches have shown better performance compared with existed approaches. • Comparison and analysis of two proposed novel models for three cases are provided

  11. Predicting Faults in Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchersen, Anders Bech; Larsen, Jesper Abildgaard; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    The cost of operation and maintenance of wind turbines is a significant part of the overall cost of wind turbines. To reduce this cost a method for enabling early fault detection is proposed and tested in this paper. The method is taking advantage of the fact that wind turbines in wind farms...... and tested on historical Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from nine operational turbines over a testing period of nine months. The performance of the fault detection is found to be acceptable based on the testing period. During the testing period several gear related services were...

  12. Opportunities for wind resources in the future competitive California power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sezgen, O.; Marnay, C.; Bretz, S.; Markel, R.; Wiser, R.

    1998-01-01

    The goal of this work is to evaluate the profitability of wind development in the future competitive California power market. The viability of possible wind sites is assessed using a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the cost of development and Elfin, an electric utility production costing and capacity expansion model, to estimate the possible revenues and profits of wind farms at the sites. This approach improves on a simple profitability calculation by using site specific development cost calculations and by taking the effect of time varying market prices on revenues into account. The first component of the work is the characterization of wind resources suitable for use in production costing and capacity expansion models such as Elfin that are capable of simulating competitive electricity markets. An improved representation of California wind resources is built, using information collected by the California Energy Commission in previous site evaluations, and by using a GIS approach to estimating development costs at 36 specific sites. These sites, which have been identified as favorable for wind development, are placed on Digital Elevation Models and development costs are calculated based on distances to roads and transmission lines. GIS is also used to develop the potential capacity at each site by making use of the physical characteristics of the terrain, such as ridge lengths. In the second part of the effort, using a previously developed algorithm for simulating competitive entry to the California electricity market, Elfin is used to gauge the viability of wind farms at the 36 sites. The results of this exercise are forecasts of profitable development levels at each site and the effects of these developments on the electricity system as a whole. Results suggest that by the year 2030, about 7.5 GW of potential wind capacity can be profitably developed assuming rising natural gas prices. This example demonstrates that an analysis based on a

  13. Bird mortality associated with wind turbines at the Buffalo Ridge wind resource area, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, R.G.; Higgins, K.F.; Usgaard, R.E.; Dieter, C.D.; Neiger, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    Recent technological advances have made wind power a viable source of alternative energy production and the number of windplant facilities has increased in the United States. Construction was completed on a 73 turbine, 25 megawatt windplant on Buffalo Ridge near Lake Benton, Minnesota in Spring 1994. The number of birds killed at existing windplants in California caused concern about the potential impacts of the Buffalo Ridge facility on the avian community. From April 1994 through Dec. 1995 we searched the Buffalo Ridge windplant site for dead birds. Additionally, we evaluated search efficiency, predator scavenging rates and rate of carcass decomposition. During 20 mo of monitoring we found 12 dead birds. Collisions with wind turbines were suspected for 8 of the 12 birds. During observer efficiency trials searchers found 78.8% of carcasses. Scavengers removed 39.5% of carcasses during scavenging trials. All carcasses remained recognizable during 7 d decomposition trials. After correction for biases we estimated that approximately 36 ?? 12 birds (bird per turbine) were killed at the Buffalo Ridge windplant in 1 y. Although windplants do not appear to be more detrimental to birds than other man-made structures, proper facility sitting is an important first consideration in order to avoid unnecessary fatalities.

  14. Development of Wind Farm AEP Prediction Program Considering Directional Wake Effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Kyoungboo; Cho, Kyungho; Huh, Jongchul [Jeju Nat’l Univ., Jeju (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-07-15

    For accurate AEP prediction in a wind farm, it is necessary to effectively calculate the wind speed reduction and the power loss due to the wake effect in each wind direction. In this study, a computer program for AEP prediction considering directional wake effect was developed. The results of the developed program were compared with the actual AEP of the wind farm and the calculation result of existing commercial software to confirm the accuracy of prediction. The applied equations are identical with those of commercial software based on existing theories, but there is a difference in the calculation process of the detection of the wake effect area in each wind direction. As a result, the developed program predicted to be less than 1% of difference to the actual capacity factor and showed more than 2% of better results compared with the existing commercial software.

  15. Increasing the competitiveness of wind energy. New technologies for advanced wind predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertolotti, Fabio

    2013-01-01

    The performance of thermal and nuclear power plants is assessed routinely and precisely, whereas the performance assessment of wind turbines is lagging far behind. This increases operational costs, reduces energy capture, and makes wind energy less competitive. The paper presents a technology and system with improved 24-h power forecasting, as well as condition monitoring of the rotor blades. The system can be employed by any wind power plant and offers potentials to increase the competitiveness of the power industry. (orig.)

  16. Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiu, Chunbo; Wang, Tiantian; Tian, Meng; Li, Yanqing; Cheng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed. • The chaos optimization algorithm is used to obtain the iterated function system. • The fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction of wind speed series is performed. - Abstract: In order to improve the prediction performance of the wind speed series, the rescaled range analysis is used to analyze the fractal characteristics of the wind speed series. An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed to predict the wind speed series whose Hurst exponents are close to 1. An optimization function which is composed of the interpolation error and the constraint items of the vertical scaling factors in the fractal interpolation iterated function system is designed. The chaos optimization algorithm is used to optimize the function to resolve the optimal vertical scaling factors. According to the self-similarity characteristic and the scale invariance, the fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction can be performed by extending the fractal characteristic from internal interval to external interval. Simulation results show that the fractal interpolation prediction method can get better prediction result than others for the wind speed series with the fractal characteristic, and the prediction performance of the proposed method can be improved further because the fractal characteristic of its iterated function system is similar to that of the predicted wind speed series

  17. Prediction of wind power potential by wind speed probability distribution in a hilly terrain near Bh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Siraj; Diwakar, Nilesh

    2010-09-15

    Daily wind speed data in metre per second and its direction of flow in degree were recorded from of the India Meteorological Department for a site near the Bhopal Airport for the period of eleven years. The influence of roughness of the terrain, obstacles and topography in terms of contour for the area were also taken into consideration. These data were analysed using WAsP programme and regional wind climate of the area was determined. It is seen from the analysis of the wind speed data and keeping the topographical variation of terrain, exploitable wind speed is experienced at 50 m.

  18. Offshore wind power resource assessment using Oceansat-2 scatterometer data at a regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadad, Sanjeev; Deka, Paresh Chandra

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Accuracy assessment of Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) winds by the in situ real-time ship observations for study area. • OSCAT data for two years (2011 and 2012) were used to evaluate the offshore wind power potential for the Karnataka state. • Wind speed and power atlases are developed to study the spatial distribution over study area. • 9,091 MW potential was estimated using 5 MW wind turbine in the Monopile region. • Recommend development of 10% of the estimated potential, 116% of energy deficit for 2012–13 can be met. - Abstract: In the offshore region the scarcity of in situ wind data in space proves to be a major setback for wind power potential assessments. Satellite data effectively overcomes this setback by providing continuous and total spatial coverage. The study intends to assess the offshore wind power resource of the Karnataka state, which is located on the west coast of India. Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) wind data and GIS based methodology were adopted in the study. The OSCAT data accuracy was assessed using INCOIS Realtime All Weather Station (IRAWS) data. Wind speed maps at 10 m, 90 m and wind power density maps using OSCAT data were developed to understand the spatial distribution of winds over the study area. Bathymetric map was developed based on the available foundation types and demarking various exclusion zones to help in minimizing conflicts. The wind power generation capacity estimation performed using REpower 5 MW turbine, based on the water depth classes was found to be 9,091 MW in Monopile (0–35 m), 11,709 MW in Jacket (35–50 m), 23,689 MW in Advanced Jacket (50–100 m) and 117,681 MW in Floating (100–1000 m) foundation technology. In Indian scenario major thrust for wind farm development in Monopile region is required. Therefore as first phase of development, if 10% of the estimated potential in the region can be developed then, 116% of energy deficit for FY 2011–12 could be met. Also, up to 79

  19. Application of a ray theory model to the prediction of noise emissions from isolated wind turbines and wind parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prospathopoulos, John M.; Voutsinas, Spyros G.

    2006-01-01

    Various propagation models have been developed to estimate the level of noise near residential areas. Predictions and measurements have proven that proper modelling of the propagation medium is of particular importance. In the present work, calculations are performed using a ray theory methodology. The ray trajectory and transport equations are derived from the linear acoustics equations for a moving medium in three dimensions. Ground and atmospheric absorption, wave refraction and diffraction and atmospheric turbulence are taken into account by introducing appropriate coefficients in the equations. In the case of a wind turbine (W/T) it is assumed that noise is produced by a point source located at the rotor centre. Given the sound power spectrum, the noise spectrum at the receiver is obtained by solving the axisymmetric propagation problem. The procedure consists of (a) finding the eigenrays, (b) calculating the energy losses along the eigenrays and (c) synthesizing the sound pressure level (SPL) by superposing the contributions of the eigenrays. In the case of a wind park the total SPL is calculated by superposing the contributions of all W/Ts. Application is made to five cases of isolated W/Ts in terrains of varying complexity. In flat or even smooth terrain the predictions agree well with the measurements. In complex terrain the predictions can be considered satisfactory, taking into account the assumption of constant wind velocity profile. Application to a wind park shows clearly the influence of the terrain on the wind velocity and consequently on the SPL. (Author)

  20. Analysis of the solar/wind resources in Southern Spain for optimal sizing of hybrid solar-wind power generation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada-Ruiz, S.; Pozo-Vazquez, D.; Santos-Alamillos, F. J.; Lara-Fanego, V.; Ruiz-Arias, J. A.; Tovar-Pescador, J.

    2010-09-01

    A drawback common to the solar and wind energy systems is their unpredictable nature and dependence on weather and climate on a wide range of time scales. In addition, the variation of the energy output may not match with the time distribution of the load demand. This can partially be solved by the use of batteries for energy storage in stand-alone systems. The problem caused by the variable nature of the solar and wind resources can be partially overcome by the use of energy systems that uses both renewable resources in a combined manner, that is, hybrid wind-solar systems. Since both resources can show complementary characteristics in certain location, the independent use of solar or wind systems results in considerable over sizing of the batteries system compared to the use of hybrid solar-wind systems. Nevertheless, to the day, there is no single recognized method for properly sizing these hybrid wind-solar systems. In this work, we present a method for sizing wind-solar hybrid systems in southern Spain. The method is based on the analysis of the wind and solar resources on daily scale, particularly, its temporal complementary characteristics. The method aims to minimize the size of the energy storage systems, trying to provide the most reliable supply.

  1. Characterization of the Wind Power Resource in Europe and its Intermittency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosseron, Alexandra; Gunturu, Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2013-04-01

    Thanks to incentives from the European Union and recent events, the political situation in Europe has never been so favorable towards renewables. As one of the most mature technologies among them, wind power has been chosen to be assessed over Europe, with a special care given to intermittency and variability quantifications. The goal of this study is to construct and analyze the availability and variability of the wind potential across Europe using the methodology developed in Gunturu and Schlosser (2011). The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) boundary flux data was used to construct wind profiles at 50, 80, 100 and 120 meters height over a domain spreading from Iceland to the western end of Ukraine. Comparisons and contrasts with previous works have asserted the reliability of the data and computations used in the analysis. It must be emphasized though that the data set used in this study has a thirty-year length, a time resolution of an hour and is a reconstruction of the atmospheric state by assimilating observational data from different platforms into a global model. Various metrics, such as coefficients of variation, inter-quartile ranges, capacity factors and wind episode lengths, have been introduced to assess magnitude and variability of wind power. Then, unconventional variables have been designed to further study the availability and reliability of this resource. Thus, to study the correlation between wind episodes across Europe, parameters called antiCoincidence and antiNullCoincidence have been built. Pragmatically, the seven closest grid points in each direction at every grid point have been studied to assess whether they had wind when the considered point had or had not. The analysis of these variables leads to the conclusion that wind-proponents' favorite statement, "wind always blows somewhere", may not be so true. All of these metrics have finally allowed a better understanding of wind power features over

  2. On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients, and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Peña

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We investigate wake effects at the Anholt offshore wind farm in Denmark, which is a farm experiencing strong horizontal wind-speed gradients because of its size and proximity to land. Mesoscale model simulations are used to study the horizontal wind-speed gradients over the wind farm. From analysis of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA, we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly used wake models: two engineering approaches (the Park and G. C. Larsen models and a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach (Fuga. The effect of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on annual energy production estimates is not found to be critical compared to estimates from both the average undisturbed wind climate of all turbines' positions and the undisturbed wind climate of a position in the middle of the wind farm. However, annual energy production estimates can largely differ when using wind climates at positions that are strongly influenced by the horizontal wind-speed gradient. When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate the wake losses (the median relative model error is 8.75 % and the engineering wake models are as uncertain as Fuga. These results are specific for

  3. Wind erosion in semiarid landscapes: Predictive models and remote sensing methods for the influence of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musick, H. Brad

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of this research are: to develop and test predictive relations for the quantitative influence of vegetation canopy structure on wind erosion of semiarid rangeland soils, and to develop remote sensing methods for measuring the canopy structural parameters that determine sheltering against wind erosion. The influence of canopy structure on wind erosion will be investigated by means of wind-tunnel and field experiments using structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments using model roughness elements to simulate plant canopies. The canopy structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments as important in determining vegetative sheltering against wind erosion will then be measured at a number of naturally vegetated field sites and compared with estimates of these variables derived from analysis of remotely sensed data.

  4. Combined wind, hydropower and photovoltaic systems for generation of electric power and control of water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abid, M.; Karimov, K.S.; Akhmedov, K.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the present day energy consumption and potentialities of utilization of wind- and hydropower resources in some Central and Southern Asian Republics, in particular, in the Republic of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan are presented. The maximum consumption of electric power is observed in winter time when hydropower is the minimum, but wind power is the maximum. At the same time water is needed mostly in summer time for irrigation and in winter time for generation of electric power. This results in conflicts between countries that utilize water mostly for irrigation and those which use water for generation of electric power. It is proposed that the utilization of water with the supplement of wind and solar energy will facilitate the proper and efficient management of water resources in Central Asia. In the future in Tajikistan, wind power systems with a capacity of 30-100 MW and more will be installed, providing power balance of the country in winter; hence saving water in reservoirs, especially in drought years. This will provide the integration of electricity generated by wind, hydroelectric power and photovoltaic system in the unified energy system of the country. (author)

  5. Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidsson, Simon; Grandell, Leena; Wachtmeister, Henrik; Höök, Mikael

    2014-01-01

    Several recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns. - Highlights: • Growth rates and service life is important when evaluating energy transitions. • A sustained commissioning model is suggested for analysing renewable energy. • Natural resource requirements for renewable energy are connected to growth rates. • Arguments by recent studies ruling out physical constraints appear inadequate

  6. Estimation of uncertainty of wind energy predictions with application to weather routing and wind power generation

    CERN Document Server

    Zastrau, David

    2017-01-01

    Wind drives in combination with weather routing can lower the fuel consumption of cargo ships significantly. For this reason, the author describes a mathematical method based on quantile regression for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route.

  7. Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keane, A.; Tuohy, A.; Meibom, Peter

    2011-01-01

    part of the power system plant mix and contribute to the flexible operation of a power system. A model for demand side resources is proposed here that captures its key characteristics for commitment and dispatch calculations. The model is tested on the all island Irish power system, and the operation...... of the functions of conventional peaking plant. Demand side resources are also shown to be capable of improving the reliability of the system, with reserve capability identified as a key requirement in this respect....... of the model is simulated over one year in both a stochastic and deterministic mode, to illustrate the impact of wind and load uncertainty. The results illustrate that demand side resources can contribute to the efficient, flexible operation of systems with high penetrations of wind by replacing some...

  8. A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, T.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Hoell, J. M.; Westberg, D.; Whitlock, C. H.

    2010-12-01

    NASA's POWER project, or the Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources project, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale. The products of the project find valuable applications in the solar and wind energy sectors of the renewable energy industries. The primary source data for the POWER project are NASA's World Climate Research Project (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Release 3.0) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (V 4.0.3). Users of the POWER products access the data through NASA's Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE, Version 6.0) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov). Over 200 parameters are available to the users. The spatial resolution is 1 degree by 1 degree now and will be finer later. The data covers from July 1983 to December 2007, a time-span of 24.5 years, and are provided as 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. As of now, there have been over 18 million web hits and over 4 million data file downloads. The POWER products have been systematically validated against ground-based measurements, and in particular, data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) archive, and also against the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Parameters such as minimum, maximum, daily mean temperature and dew points, relative humidity and surface pressure are validated against the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) data. SSE feeds data directly into Decision Support Systems including RETScreen International clean energy project analysis software that is written in 36 languages and has greater than 260,000 users worldwide.

  9. A Joint Evaluation of the Wind and Wave Energy Resources Close to the Greek Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ganea

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work is to analyze the wind and wave energy potential in the proximity of the Greek islands. Thus, by evaluating the synergy between wind and waves, a more comprehensive picture of the renewable energy resources in the target area is provided. In this study, two different data sources are considered. The first data set is provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF through the ERA-Interim project and covers an 11-year period, while the second data set is Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO and covers six years of information. Using these data, parameters such as wind speed, significant wave height (SWH and mean wave period (MWP are analyzed. The following marine areas are targeted: Ionian Sea, Aegean Sea, Sea of Crete, Libyan Sea and Levantine Sea, near the coastal environment of the Greek islands. Initially, 26 reference points were considered. For a more detailed analysis, the number of reference points was narrowed down to 10 that were considered more relevant. Since in the island environments the resources are in general rather limited, the proposed work provides some outcomes concerning the wind and wave energy potential and the synergy between these two natural resources in the vicinity of the Greek islands. From the analysis performed, it can be noticed that the most energetic wind conditions are encountered west of Cios Island, followed by the regions east of Tinos and northeast of Crete. In these locations, the annual average values of the wind power density (Pwind are in the range of 286–298.6 W/m2. Regarding the wave power density (Pwave, the most energetic locations can be found in the vicinity of Crete, north, south and southeast of the island. There, the wave energy potential is in the range of 2.88–2.99 kW/m.

  10. Near Real Time MISR Wind Observations for Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, K. J.; Protack, S.; Rheingans, B. E.; Hansen, E. G.; Jovanovic, V. M.; Baker, N.; Liu, J.; Val, S.

    2014-12-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) project, in association with the NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC), has this year adapted its original production software to generate near-real time (NRT) cloud-motion winds as well as radiance imagery from all nine MISR cameras. These products are made publicly available at the ASDC with a latency of less than 3 hours. Launched aboard the sun-synchronous Terra platform in 1999, the MISR instrument continues to acquire near-global, 275 m resolution, multi-angle imagery. During a single 7 minute overpass of any given area, MISR retrieves the stereoscopic height and horizontal motion of clouds from the multi-angle data, yielding meso-scale near-instantaneous wind vectors. The ongoing 15-year record of MISR height-resolved winds at 17.6 km resolution has been validated against independent data sources. Low-level winds dominate the sampling, and agree to within ±3 ms-1 of collocated GOES and other observations. Low-level wind observations are of particular interest to weather forecasting, where there is a dearth of observations suitable for assimilation, in part due to reliability concerns associated with winds whose heights are assigned by the infrared brightness temperature technique. MISR cloud heights, on the other hand, are generated from stereophotogrammetric pattern matching of visible radiances. MISR winds also address data gaps in the latitude bands between geostationary satellite coverage and polar orbiting instruments that obtain winds from multiple overpasses (e.g. MODIS). Observational impact studies conducted by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) have both demonstrated forecast improvements when assimilating MISR winds. An impact assessment using the GEOS-5 system is currently in progress. To benefit air quality forecasts, the MISR project is currently investigating the feasibility of generating near-real time aerosol products.

  11. An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

  12. Reduction of wind power induced reserve requirements by advanced shortest-term forecasts and prediction intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobschinski, Jan; Wessel, Arne; Lange, Bernhard; Bremen, Lueder von [Fraunhofer Institut fuer Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Kassel (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    In electricity systems with large penetration of wind power, the limited predictability of the wind power generation leads to an increase in reserve and balancing requirements. At first the present study concentrates on the capability of dynamic day-ahead prediction intervals to reduce the wind power induced reserve and balancing requirements. Alternatively the reduction of large forecast errors of the German wind power generation by using advanced shortest-term predictions has been evaluated in a second approach. With focus on the allocation of minute reserve power the aim is to estimate the maximal remaining uncertainty after trading activities on the intraday market. Finally both approaches were used in a case study concerning the reserve requirements induced by the total German wind power expansion in 2007. (orig.)

  13. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqing Kang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

  14. Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keane, A.; Tuohy, A.; Meibom, P.; Denny, E.; Flynn, D.; Mullane, A.; O'Malley, M.

    2011-01-01

    The utilisation of demand side resources is set to increase over the coming years with the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, home area networks and the promotion of increased energy efficiency. Demand side resources are proposed as an energy resource that, through aggregation, can form part of the power system plant mix and contribute to the flexible operation of a power system. A model for demand side resources is proposed here that captures its key characteristics for commitment and dispatch calculations. The model is tested on the all island Irish power system, and the operation of the model is simulated over one year in both a stochastic and deterministic mode, to illustrate the impact of wind and load uncertainty. The results illustrate that demand side resources can contribute to the efficient, flexible operation of systems with high penetrations of wind by replacing some of the functions of conventional peaking plant. Demand side resources are also shown to be capable of improving the reliability of the system, with reserve capability identified as a key requirement in this respect. - Highlights: → Demand side resource model presented for use in unit commitment and dispatch calculations. → Benefits of demand side aggregation demonstrated specifically as a peaking unit and provider of reserve. → Potential to displace or defer construction of conventional peaking units.

  15. High-altitude wind prediction and measurement technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-30

    The principles and operational characteristics of balloon and radar-based techniques for measuring upper air winds in support of launches and recoveries are presented. Though either a balloon or radar system could serve as a standalone system, the sa...

  16. The effects of tropical wind data on the prediction of ultralong waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W. E.

    1981-01-01

    The influence of tropical wind data on the prediction of planetary waves were studied. Two assimilation experiments were performed, one with and one without FGGE tropical winds. The planetary wave error was then analyzed in 72 h forecasts from the initial conditions provided by the two assimilations.

  17. Wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This chapter discusses the role wind energy may have in the energy future of the US. The topics discussed in the chapter include historical aspects of wind energy use, the wind energy resource, wind energy technology including intermediate-size and small wind turbines and intermittency of wind power, public attitudes toward wind power, and environmental, siting and land use issues

  18. A new wind power prediction method based on chaotic theory and Bernstein Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Fan, Xiaochao

    2016-01-01

    The accuracy of wind power prediction is important for assessing the security and economy of the system operation when wind power connects to the grids. However, multiple factors cause a long delay and large errors in wind power prediction. Hence, efficient wind power forecasting approaches are still required for practical applications. In this paper, a new wind power forecasting method based on Chaos Theory and Bernstein Neural Network (BNN) is proposed. Firstly, the largest Lyapunov exponent as a judgment for wind power system's chaotic behavior is made. Secondly, Phase Space Reconstruction (PSR) is used to reconstruct the wind power series' phase space. Thirdly, the prediction model is constructed using the Bernstein polynomial and neural network. Finally, the weights and thresholds of the model are optimized by Primal Dual State Transition Algorithm (PDSTA). The practical hourly data of wind power generation in Xinjiang is used to test this forecaster. The proposed forecaster is compared with several current prominent research findings. Analytical results indicate that the forecasting error of PDSTA + BNN is 3.893% for 24 look-ahead hours, and has lower errors obtained compared with the other forecast methods discussed in this paper. The results of all cases studying confirm the validity of the new forecast method. - Highlights: • Lyapunov exponent is used to verify chaotic behavior of wind power series. • Phase Space Reconstruction is used to reconstruct chaotic wind power series. • A new Bernstein Neural Network to predict wind power series is proposed. • Primal dual state transition algorithm is chosen as the training strategy of BNN.

  19. Using data-driven approach for wind power prediction: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taslimi Renani, Ehsan; Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad; Rahim, Nasrudin Abd.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Double exponential smoothing is the most accurate model in wind speed prediction. • A two-stage feature selection method is proposed to select most important inputs. • Direct prediction illustrates better accuracy than indirect prediction. • Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms data mining algorithms. • Random forest performs the worst compared to other data mining algorithm. - Abstract: Although wind energy is intermittent and stochastic in nature, it is increasingly important in the power generation due to its sustainability and pollution-free. Increased utilization of wind energy sources calls for more robust and efficient prediction models to mitigate uncertainties associated with wind power. This research compares two different approaches in wind power forecasting which are indirect and direct prediction methods. In indirect method, several times series are applied to forecast the wind speed, whereas the logistic function with five parameters is then used to forecast the wind power. In this study, backtracking search algorithm with novel crossover and mutation operators is employed to find the best parameters of five-parameter logistic function. A new feature selection technique, combining the mutual information and neural network is proposed in this paper to extract the most informative features with a maximum relevancy and minimum redundancy. From the comparative study, the results demonstrate that, in the direct prediction approach where the historical weather data are used to predict the wind power generation directly, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system outperforms five data mining algorithms namely, random forest, M5Rules, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine and multilayer perceptron. Moreover, it is also found that the mean absolute percentage error of the direct prediction method using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system is 1.47% which is approximately less than half of the error obtained with the

  20. Wind energy prospecting: socio-economic value of a new wind resource assessment technique based on a NASA Earth science dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanvyve, E.; Magontier, P.; Vandenberghe, F. C.; Delle Monache, L.; Dickinson, K.

    2012-12-01

    Wind energy is amongst the fastest growing sources of renewable energy in the U.S. and could supply up to 20 % of the U.S power production by 2030. An accurate and reliable wind resource assessment for prospective wind farm sites is a challenging task, yet is crucial for evaluating the long-term profitability and feasibility of a potential development. We have developed an accurate and computationally efficient wind resource assessment technique for prospective wind farm sites, which incorporates innovative statistical techniques and the new NASA Earth science dataset MERRA. This technique produces a wind resource estimate that is more accurate than that obtained by the wind energy industry's standard technique, while providing a reliable quantification of its uncertainty. The focus now is on evaluating the socio-economic value of this new technique upon using the industry's standard technique. Would it yield lower financing costs? Could it result in lower electricity prices? Are there further down-the-line positive consequences, e.g. job creation, time saved, greenhouse gas decrease? Ultimately, we expect our results will inform efforts to refine and disseminate the new technique to support the development of the U.S. renewable energy infrastructure. In order to address the above questions, we are carrying out a cost-benefit analysis based on the net present worth of the technique. We will describe this approach, including the cash-flow process of wind farm financing, how the wind resource assessment factors in, and will present current results for various hypothetical candidate wind farm sites.

  1. Temporal and spatial complementarity of wind and solar resources in Lower Silesia (Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurasz, Jakub; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Dąbek, Paweł

    2017-11-01

    This paper investigates the concept of temporal and spatial complementarity of wind and solar resources in Lower Silesia (south-wester Poland). For the purpose of our research we have used hourly load and energy yield from photovoltaics and wind turbines covering period 2010-2014. In order to assess the spatial complementarity we have divided the considered voivodeship into 74 squared regions with maximal area of 400 km2. The obtained results indicate an existence of temporal complementarity on a monthly time scale and a positive correlation between load and wind generation patterns (also on a monthly time scale). The temporal complementarity for hourly time series in relatively low but has potential to smooth the energy generation curves.

  2. On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Ott, Søren

    2017-01-01

    of the mesoscale simulations and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clear horizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscale simulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled with three commonly....... When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where the impact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbed turbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; when looking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wake models tend...... to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake model setup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farm rather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, we estimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. The models tend to underestimate...

  3. Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

  4. Distributed Model Predictive Control for Active Power Control of Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the active power control of a wind farm using the Distributed Model Predictive Controller (D- MPC) via dual decomposition. Different from the conventional centralized wind farm control, multiple objectives such as power reference tracking performance and wind turbine load can...... be considered to achieve a trade-off between them. Additionally, D- MPC is based on communication among the subsystems. Through the interaction among the neighboring subsystems, the global optimization could be achieved, which significantly reduces the computation burden. It is suitable for the modern large......-scale wind farm control....

  5. Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamy, Julian V.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Azevedo, Inês L.; Wiser, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Wind speeds in remote areas are sometimes very high, but transmission costs to access these locations can be prohibitive. We present a conceptual model to estimate the economics of accessing high quality wind resources in remote areas to comply with renewable energy policy targets, and apply the model to the Midwestern grid (MISO) as a case study. We assess the goal of providing 40 TWh of new wind generation while minimizing costs, and include temporal aspects of wind power (variability costs and correlation to market prices) as well as total wind power produced from different farms. We find that building wind farms in North/South Dakota (windiest states) compared to Illinois (less windy, but close to load) would only be economical if the incremental transmission costs to access them were below $360/kW of wind capacity (break-even value). Historically, the incremental transmission costs for wind development in North/South Dakota compared to in Illinois are about twice this value. However, the break-even incremental transmission cost for wind farms in Minnesota/Iowa (also windy states) is $250/kW, which is consistent with historical costs. We conclude that wind development in Minnesota/Iowa is likely more economical to meet MISO renewable targets compared to North/South Dakota or Illinois. - Highlights: •We evaluate the economics of building wind farms in remote areas in MISO. •We present a conceptual wind site selection model to meet 40 TWh of new wind. •We use the model to compare remote windy sites to less windy ones closer to load. •We show break-even transmission costs that would justify remote wind development. •Comparing break-even values to historical costs, MN/IA sites are most economical.

  6. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  7. Development of a wind farm noise propagation prediction model - project progress to date

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.; Bullmore, A.; Bass, J.; Sloth, E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes a twelve month measurement campaign which is part of a European project (CEC Project JOR3-CT95-0051) with the aim to substantially reduce the uncertainties involved in predicting environmentally radiated noise levels from wind farms (1). This will be achieved by comparing noise levels measure at varying distances from single and multiple sources over differing complexities of terrain with those predicted using a number of currently adopted sound propagation models. Specific objectives within the project are to: establish the important parameters controlling the propagation of wind farm noise to the far field; develop a planning tool for predicting wind farm noise emission levels under practically encountered conditions; place confidence limits on the upper and lower bounds of the noise levels predicted, thus enabling developers to quantify the risk whether noise emission from wind farms will cause nuisance to nearby residents. (Author)

  8. Wind resource assessment handbook: Fundamentals for conducting a successful monitoring program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, B.H.; McDonald, S.L.; Bernadett, D.W.; Markus, M.J.; Elsholz, K.V.

    1997-01-01

    This handbook presents industry-accepted guidelines for planning and conducting a wind resource measurement program to support a wind energy feasibility initiative. These guidelines, which are detailed and highly technical, emphasize the tasks of selecting, installing, and operating wind measurement equipment, as well as collecting and analyzing the associated data, once one or more measurement sites are located. The handbook's scope encompasses state-of-the-art measurement and analysis techniques at multiple heights on tall towers (e.g., 40 m) for a measurement duration of at least one year. These guidelines do not represent every possible method of conducting a quality wind measurement program, but they address the most important elements based on field-proven experience. The intended audience for this handbook is any organization or individual who desires the planning framework and detailed procedures for conducting a formally structured wind measurement program. Personnel from the management level to field technicians will find this material applicable. The organizational aspects of a measurement program, including the setting of clear program objectives and designing commensurate measurement and quality assurance plans, all of which are essential to ensuring the program's successful outcome, are emphasized. Considerable attention is also given to the details of actually conducting the measurement program in its many aspects, from selecting instrumentation that meets minimum performance standards to analyzing and reporting on the collected data. 5 figs., 15 tabs

  9. Externalities in utility resource selection: A means to formally recognize the envionmental benefits of wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birner, S.

    1992-01-01

    Wind can only make its full contribution to the minimization of the total cost of energy services if it is valued for all the costs that it avoids, including avoided environmental costs. Means of incorporating environmental costs, or externalities, into utility planning decisions are described. Externalities are defined as uncompensated costs or benefits of an action borne by a party other than the one causing the costs. A simple example of the use of externalities in utility resource selection is presented, comparing costs of a coal-fired power plant and a wind farm. Externalities of wind farms are analyzed and found to be very low. An examination of some aspects of legislation in the USA and Canada shows a trend for utility commissions and other regulatory bodies to determine that including externalitites lies within their mandate. By formally recognizing and accounting for the environmental benefits of wind farms, it is seen that externalities can have a significant effect on utility demand for wind energy. A review of USA state actions regarding externalities is appended. 10 refs

  10. Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J

    2011-05-17

    The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.

  11. Wind and solar energy resources on the 'Roof of the World'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandler, Harald; Morche, Thomas; Samimi, Cyrus

    2015-04-01

    The Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan, often referred to as 'Roof of the World', are an arid high mountain plateau characterized by severe energy poverty that may have great potential for renewable energy resources due to the prevailing natural conditions. The lack of energetic infrastructure makes the region a prime target for decentralized integration of wind and solar power. However, up to date no scientific attempt to assess the regional potential of these resources has been carried out. In this context, it is particularly important to evaluate if wind and solar energy are able to provide enough power to generate thermal energy, as other thermal energy carriers are scarce or unavailable and the existing alternative, local harvest of dwarf shrubs, is unsustainable due to the slow regeneration in this environment. Therefore, this study examines the feasibility of using wind and solar energy as thermal energy sources. Financial frame conditions were set on a maximum amount of five million Euros. This sum provides a realistic scenario as it is based on the current budget of the KfW development bank to finance the modernization of the local hydropower plant in the regions only city, Murghab, with about 1500 households. The basis for resource assessment is data of four climate stations, erected for this purpose in 2012, where wind speed, wind direction, global radiation and temperature are measured at a half hourly interval. These measurements confirm the expectation of a large photovoltaic potential and high panel efficiency with up to 84 percent of extraterrestrial radiation reaching the surface and only 16 hours of temperatures above 25°C were measured in two years at the village stations on average. As these observations are only point measurements, radiation data and the ASTER GDEM was used to train a GIS based solar radiation model to spatially extrapolate incoming radiation. With mean validation errors ranging from 5% in July (minimum) to 15% in December (maximum

  12. Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cornejo-Bueno

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

  13. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I. Predicting wind speed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Charles L. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Kamp, Derek van der [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    Surface wind speed is a key climatic variable of interest in many applications, including assessments of storm-related infrastructure damage and feasibility studies of wind power generation. In this work and a companion paper (van der Kamp et al. 2011), the relationship between local surface wind and large-scale climate variables was studied using multiple regression analysis. The analysis was performed using monthly mean station data from British Columbia, Canada and large-scale climate variables (predictors) from the NCEP-2 reanalysis over the period 1979-2006. Two regression-based methodologies were compared. The first relates the annual cycle of station wind speed to that of the large-scale predictors at the closest grid box to the station. It is shown that the relatively high correlation coefficients obtained with this method are attributable to the dominant influence of region-wide seasonality, and thus contain minimal information about local wind behaviour at the stations. The second method uses interannually varying data for individual months, aggregated into seasons, and is demonstrated to contain intrinsically local information about the surface winds. The dependence of local wind speed upon large-scale predictors over a much larger region surrounding the station was also explored, resulting in 2D maps of spatial correlations. The cross-validated explained variance using the interannual method was highest in autumn and winter, ranging from 30 to 70% at about a dozen stations in the region. Reasons for the limited predictive skill of the regressions and directions for future progress are reviewed. (orig.)

  14. Enhanced Voltage Control of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2018-01-01

    This paper proposes an enhanced voltage control strategy (EVCS) based on model predictive control (MPC) for voltage source converter based high voltage direct current (VSCHVDC) connected offshore wind farms (OWFs). In the proposed MPC based EVCS, all wind turbine generators (WTGs) as well...... as the wind farm side VSC are optimally coordinated to keep voltages within the feasible range and reduce system power losses. Considering the high ratio of the OWF collector system, the effects of active power outputs of WTGs on voltage control are also taken into consideration. The predictive model of VSC...

  15. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

  16. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-01-15

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

  17. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  18. Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Hoadley, Sherwood T.; Allen, B. Danette

    2009-01-01

    Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

  19. Seal carrion is a predictable resource for coastal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaggiotto, Maria-Martina; Barton, Philip S.; Morris, Christopher D.; Moss, Simon E. W.; Pomeroy, Patrick P.; McCafferty, Dominic J.; Bailey, David M.

    2018-04-01

    The timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of resource inputs can have large effects on dependent organisms. Few studies have examined the predictability of such resources and no standard ecological measure of predictability exists. We examined the potential predictability of carrion resources provided by one of the UK's largest grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) colonies, on the Isle of May, Scotland. We used aerial (11 years) and ground surveys (3 years) to quantify the variability in time, space, quantity (kg), and quality (MJ) of seal carrion during the seal pupping season. We then compared the potential predictability of seal carrion to other periodic changes in food availability in nature. An average of 6893 kg of carrion •yr-1 corresponding to 110.5 × 103 MJ yr-1 was released for potential scavengers as placentae and dead animals. A fifth of the total biomass from dead seals was consumed by the end of the pupping season, mostly by avian scavengers. The spatial distribution of carcasses was similar across years, and 28% of the area containing >10 carcasses ha-1 was shared among all years. Relative standard errors (RSE) in space, time, quantity, and quality of carrion were all below 34%. This is similar to other allochthonous-dependent ecosystems, such as those affected by migratory salmon, and indicates high predictability of seal carrion as a resource. Our study illustrates how to quantify predictability in carrion, which is of general relevance to ecosystems that are dependent on this resource. We also highlight the importance of carrion to marine coastal ecosystems, where it sustains avian scavengers thus affecting ecosystem structure and function.

  20. Study on new energy development planning and absorptive capability of Xinjiang in China considering resource characteristics and demand prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Hai; Miao, Xujuan; Liu, Jinpeng; Wu, Meng; Zhao, Xuehua

    2018-02-01

    Xinjiang, as the area where wind energy and solar energy resources are extremely rich, with good resource development characteristics, can provide a support for regional power development and supply protection. This paper systematically analyzes the new energy resource and development characteristics of Xinjiang and carries out the demand prediction and excavation of load characteristics of Xinjiang power market. Combing the development plan of new energy of Xinjiang and considering the construction of transmission channel, it analyzes the absorptive capability of new energy. It provides certain reference for the comprehensive planning of new energy development in Xinjiang and the improvement of absorptive capacity of new energy.

  1. Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat Use and Population Demographics at the Simpson Ridge Wind Resource Area, Carbon County, Wyoming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory D. Johnson; Chad W. LeBeau; Ryan Nielsen; Troy Rintz; Jamey Eddy; Matt Holloran

    2012-03-27

    This study was conducted to obtain baseline data on use of the proposed Simpson Ridge Wind Resource Area (SRWRA) in Carbon County, Wyoming by greater sage-grouse. The first two study years were designed to determine pre-construction seasonally selected habitats and population-level vital rates (productivity and survival). The presence of an existing wind energy facility in the project area, the PacifiCorp Seven Mile Hill (SMH) project, allowed us to obtain some information on initial sage-grouse response to wind turbines the first two years following construction. To our knowledge these are the first quantitative data on sage-grouse response to an existing wind energy development. This report presents results of the first two study years (April 1, 2009 through March 30, 2011). This study was selected for continued funding by the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative Sage-Grouse Collaborative (NWCC-SGC) and has been ongoing since March 30, 2011. Future reports summarizing results of this research will be distributed through the NWCC-SGC. To investigate population trends through time, we determined the distribution and numbers of males using leks throughout the study area, which included a 4-mile radius buffer around the SRWRA. Over the 2-year study, 116 female greater sage-grouse were captured by spotlighting and use of hoop nets on roosts surrounding leks during the breeding period. Radio marked birds were located anywhere from twice a week to once a month, depending on season. All radio-locations were classified to season. We developed predictor variables used to predict success of fitness parameters and relative probability of habitat selection within the SRWRA and SMH study areas. Anthropogenic features included paved highways, overhead transmission lines, wind turbines and turbine access roads. Environmental variables included vegetation and topography features. Home ranges were estimated using a kernel density estimator. We developed resource selection

  2. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  3. AN EFFICIENT PATIENT INFLOW PREDICTION MODEL FOR HOSPITAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kottalanka Srikanth

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There has been increasing demand in improving service provisioning in hospital resources management. Hospital industries work with strict budget constraint at the same time assures quality care. To achieve quality care with budget constraint an efficient prediction model is required. Recently there has been various time series based prediction model has been proposed to manage hospital resources such ambulance monitoring, emergency care and so on. These models are not efficient as they do not consider the nature of scenario such climate condition etc. To address this artificial intelligence is adopted. The issues with existing prediction are that the training suffers from local optima error. This induces overhead and affects the accuracy in prediction. To overcome the local minima error, this work presents a patient inflow prediction model by adopting resilient backpropagation neural network. Experiment are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed model inter of RMSE and MAPE. The outcome shows the proposed model reduces RMSE and MAPE over existing back propagation based artificial neural network. The overall outcomes show the proposed prediction model improves the accuracy of prediction which aid in improving the quality of health care management.

  4. Assessing risk to birds from industrial wind energy development via paired resource selection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tricia A; Brooks, Robert P; Lanzone, Michael; Brandes, David; Cooper, Jeff; O'Malley, Kieran; Maisonneuve, Charles; Tremblay, Junior; Duerr, Adam; Katzner, Todd

    2014-06-01

    When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework can be applied across multiple spatial scales to understand and mitigate impacts of industry on wildlife. We estimated risk to Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from wind energy development in 3 topographically distinct regions of the central Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania (United States) based on models of resource selection of wind facilities (n = 43) and of northbound migrating eagles (n = 30). Risk to eagles from wind energy was greatest in the Ridge and Valley region; all 24 eagles that passed through that region used the highest risk landscapes at least once during low altitude flight. In contrast, only half of the birds that entered the Allegheny Plateau region used highest risk landscapes and none did in the Allegheny Mountains. Likewise, in the Allegheny Mountains, the majority of wind turbines (56%) were situated in poor eagle habitat; thus, risk to eagles is lower there than in the Ridge and Valley, where only 1% of turbines are in poor eagle habitat. Risk within individual facilities was extremely variable; on average, facilities had 11% (SD 23; range = 0-100%) of turbines in highest risk landscapes and 26% (SD 30; range = 0-85%) of turbines in the lowest risk landscapes. Our results provide a mechanism for relocating high-risk turbines, and they show the feasibility of this novel and highly adaptable framework for managing risk of harm to wildlife from industrial development. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Assessment of Off-shore Wind Energy Resource in China using QuikSCAT Satellite data and SAR Satellite Images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiuzhi, Zhang; Yanbo, Shen; Jingwei, Xu

    2010-01-01

    From August 2008 to August 2009, the project ‘Off-Shore Wind Energy Resource Assessment and Feasibility Study of Off-Shore Wind Farm Development in China’ was carried out by China Meteorological Administration (CMA), which was funded by the EU-China Energy and Environment Programme (EEP). As one ...

  6. 78 FR 15718 - Iberdrola Renewables, Inc. PacifiCorp NextEra Energy Resources, LLC Invenergy Wind North America...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. EL11-44-006] Iberdrola Renewables, Inc. PacifiCorp NextEra Energy Resources, LLC Invenergy Wind North America LLC Horizon Wind Energy LLC v. Bonneville Power Administration; Notice of Filing Take notice that on March 1, 2013...

  7. 77 FR 2286 - Iberdrola Renewables, Inc., PacifiCorp, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, Invenergy Wind North...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-17

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. EL11-44-000] Iberdrola Renewables, Inc., PacifiCorp, NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, Invenergy Wind North America LLC, Horizon Wind Energy LLC v. Bonneville Power Administration; Notice of Designation of Certain Commission Personnel as...

  8. EnviroAtlas - Annual average potential wind energy resource by 12-digit HUC for the Conterminous United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset shows the annual average potential wind energy resource in kilowatt hours per square kilometer per day for each 12-digit Hydrologic Unit...

  9. Jet stream wind power as a renewable energy resource: little power, big impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Miller

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Jet streams are regions of sustained high wind speeds in the upper atmosphere and are seen by some as a substantial renewable energy resource. However, jet streams are nearly geostrophic flow, that is, they result from the balance between the pressure gradient and Coriolis force in the near absence of friction. Therefore, jet stream motion is associated with very small generation rates of kinetic energy to maintain the high wind velocities, and it is this generation rate that will ultimately limit the potential use of jet streams as a renewable energy resource. Here we estimate the maximum limit of jet stream wind power by considering extraction of kinetic energy as a term in the free energy balance of kinetic energy that describes the generation, depletion, and extraction of kinetic energy. We use this balance as the basis to quantify the maximum limit of how much kinetic energy can be extracted sustainably from the jet streams of the global atmosphere as well as the potential climatic impacts of its use. We first use a simple thought experiment of geostrophic flow to demonstrate why the high wind velocities of the jet streams are not associated with a high potential for renewable energy generation. We then use an atmospheric general circulation model to estimate that the maximum sustainable extraction from jet streams of the global atmosphere is about 7.5 TW. This estimate is about 200-times less than previous estimates and is due to the fact that the common expression for instantaneous wind power 12 ρv3 merely characterizes the transport of kinetic energy by the flow, but not the generation rate of kinetic energy. We also find that when maximum wind power is extracted from the jet streams, it results in significant

  10. Wind tunnel testing to predict control room atmospheric dispersion factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmquist, L.J.; Harden, P.A.; Muraida, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    Recent concerns at Palisades about control room habitability in the event of a loss-of-coolant accident have led to an extensive effort to increase control room habitability margin. The heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) system servicing the control room has the potential for unfiltered in-leakage through its normal outside air intake louvered isolation dampers during emergency mode. The current limiting control room habitability analysis allows for 1.2 x 10 -2 m 3 /s (25 ft 3 /min) unfiltered in-leakage into the control room envelope. This leakage value was not thought to be achievable with the existing as-built configuration. Repairing the system was considered as a potential solution; however, this would be costly and could negatively affect plant operation. In addition, the system would still be required to meet the low specified unfiltered in-leakage. A second approach to this problem was to determine the atmospheric dispersion factors (x/Q's) through a wind tunnel test using a scale model of Palisades. The results of the wind tunnel testing could yield more realistic x/Q's for control room habitability than previously employed methods. Palisades selected the wind tunnel study option based on its ease of implementation, realistic results, and low cost. More importantly, the results of the study could increase the allowable unfiltered in-leakage

  11. Use of simplified methods for predicting natural resource damages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loreti, C.P.; Boehm, P.D.; Gundlach, E.R.; Healy, E.A.; Rosenstein, A.B.; Tsomides, H.J.; Turton, D.J.; Webber, H.M.

    1995-01-01

    To reduce transaction costs and save time, the US Department of the Interior (DOI) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed simplified methods for assessing natural resource damages from oil and chemical spills. DOI has proposed the use of two computer models, the Natural Resource Damage Assessment Model for Great Lakes Environments (NRDAM/GLE) and a revised Natural Resource Damage Assessment Model for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/CME) for predicting monetary damages for spills of oils and chemicals into the Great Lakes and coastal and marine environments. NOAA has used versions of these models to create Compensation Formulas, which it has proposed for calculating natural resource damages for oil spills of up to 50,000 gallons anywhere in the US. Based on a review of the documentation supporting the methods, the results of hundreds of sample runs of DOI's models, and the outputs of the thousands of model runs used to create NOAA's Compensation Formulas, this presentation discusses the ability of these simplified assessment procedures to make realistic damage estimates. The limitations of these procedures are described, and the need for validating the assumptions used in predicting natural resource injuries is discussed

  12. Predicting Ionization Rates from SEP and Solar Wind Proton Precipitation into the Martian Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolitz, R.; Dong, C.; Lee, C. O.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Brain, D.; Halekas, J. S.; Larson, D. E.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitating energetic particles ionize planetary atmospheres and increase total electron content. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutrals and pass through the magnetosheath, while SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. In this study we will present predicted ionization rates and resulting electron densities produced by solar wind and SEP proton ionization during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare ionization by SEP and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help to quantify how the ionosphere responds to extreme solar events during solar minimum.

  13. Combined Active and Reactive Power Control of Wind Farms based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Jianhui

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a combined wind farm controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). Compared with the conventional decoupled active and reactive power control, the proposed control scheme considers the significant impact of active power on voltage variations due to the low X=R ratio...... of wind farm collector systems. The voltage control is improved. Besides, by coordination of active and reactive power, the Var capacity is optimized to prevent potential failures due to Var shortage, especially when the wind farm operates close to its full load. An analytical method is used to calculate...... the sensitivity coefficients to improve the computation efficiency and overcome the convergence problem. Two control modes are designed for both normal and emergency conditions. A wind farm with 20 wind turbines was used to verify the proposed combined control scheme....

  14. A prediction model for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegaya, N.; Ikeda, Y.; Hagishima, A.; Razak, A. A.; Tanimoto, J.

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to review and improve prediction models for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies. We adopted an extensive database of velocity fields under various conditions for arrays consisting of cubes, slender or flattened rectangles, and rectangles with varying roughness heights. Conclusions are summarized as follows: first, a new geometric parameter is introduced as a function of the plan area index and the aspect ratio so as to express the increase in virtual density that causes wind speed reduction. Second, the estimated wind speed ratios in the range 0.05 coefficients between the wind speeds averaged over the entire region, and the front or side region values are larger than 0.8. In contrast, in areas where the influence of roughness elements is significant, such as behind a building, the wind speeds are weakly correlated.

  15. Bayesian state prediction of wind turbine bearing failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herp, Jürgen; Ramezani, Mohammad H.; Bach-Andersen, Martin

    2017-01-01

    A statistical approach to abstract and predict turbine states in an online manner has been developed. Online inference is performed on temperature measurement residuals to predict the failure state δn steps ahead of time. In this framework a case study is performed showing the ability to predict...

  16. Wind power, network congestion and hydro resource utilisation in the Norwegian power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foersund, Finn; Singh, Balbir; Jensen, Trond; Larsen, Cato

    2005-01-01

    Capacity constraints in electricity networks can have important impacts on utilization of new renewable energy (RE) capacity and incumbent generation resources. Neglect of such impacts in development of RE resources can result in crowding-out of incumbent generation. This trade-off is particularly problematic if the incumbent generation also consists of renewable sources, such as hydropower in the Norwegian electricity system. This paper presents a numerical analysis of the current wind-power development plans in North Norway and their impacts on utilization of hydropower. Policy simulations in paper are conducted using a dynamic partial equilibrium model that is calibrated to reflect the structure of the Nordic power market. The paper draws conclusion and policy implications for integration of RE resources in the Norwegian power market. (Author)

  17. Prediction of the wind turbine performance by using BEM with airfoil data extracted from CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Hua; Shen, Wen Zhong; Xu, Haoran

    2014-01-01

    Blade element momentum (BEM) theory with airfoil data is a widely used technique for prediction of wind turbine aerodynamic performance, but the reliability of the airfoil data is an important factor for the prediction accuracy of aerodynamic loads and power. The airfoil characteristics used in BEM...

  18. Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunli Wu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Given the stochastic nature of wind, wind power grid-connected capacity prediction plays an essential role in coping with the challenge of balancing supply and demand. Accurate forecasting methods make enormous contribution to mapping wind power strategy, power dispatching and sustainable development of wind power industry. This study proposes a bat algorithm (BA–least squares support vector machine (LSSVM hybrid model to improve prediction performance. In order to select input of LSSVM effectively, Stationarity, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the influence of installed capacity with different lags, and partial autocorrelation analysis is employed to investigate the inner relationship of grid-connected capacity. The parameters in LSSVM are optimized by BA to validate the learning ability and generalization of LSSVM. Multiple model sufficiency evaluation methods are utilized. The research results reveal that the accuracy improvement of the present approach can reach about 20% compared to other single or hybrid models.

  19. A novel implementation of kNN classifier based on multi-tupled meteorological input data for wind power prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An accurate wind power prediction model is proposed for very short-term horizon. • The k-nearest neighbor classifier is implemented based on the multi-tupled inputs. • The variation of wind power prediction errors is evaluated in various aspects. • Our approach shows the superior prediction performance over the persistence method. - Abstract: With the growing share of wind power production in the electric power grids, many critical challenges to the grid operators have been emerged in terms of the power balance, power quality, voltage support, frequency stability, load scheduling, unit commitment and spinning reserve calculations. To overcome such problems, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the wind power production, but a small number of them have attempted to improve the prediction accuracy by employing the multidimensional meteorological input data. The novelties of this study lie in the proposal of an efficient and easy to implement very short-term wind power prediction model based on the k-nearest neighbor classifier (kNN), in the usage of wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure and air temperature parameters as the multi-tupled meteorological inputs and in the comparison of wind power prediction results with respect to the persistence reference model. As a result of the achieved patterns, we characterize the variation of wind power prediction errors according to the input tuples, distance measures and neighbor numbers, and uncover the most influential and the most ineffective meteorological parameters on the optimization of wind power prediction results.

  20. A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

    2014-01-01

    A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

  1. Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Messadi, Manal; Mellit, Adel; Kemih, Karim; Ghanes, Malek

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. (paper)

  2. Predictive control of a chaotic permanent magnet synchronous generator in a wind turbine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manal, Messadi; Adel, Mellit; Karim, Kemih; Malek, Ghanes

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates how to address the chaos problem in a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) in a wind turbine system. Predictive control approach is proposed to suppress chaotic behavior and make operating stable; the advantage of this method is that it can only be applied to one state of the wind turbine system. The use of the genetic algorithms to estimate the optimal parameter values of the wind turbine leads to maximization of the power generation. Moreover, some simulation results are included to visualize the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Project supported by the CMEP-TASSILI Project (Grant No. 14MDU920).

  3. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  4. Using Unsupervised Machine Learning for Outlier Detection in Data to Improve Wind Power Production Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Åkerberg, Ludvig

    2017-01-01

    The expansion of wind power for electrical energy production has increased in recent years and shows no signs of slowing down. This unpredictable source of energy has contributed to destabilization of the electrical grid causing the energy market prices to vary significantly on a daily basis. For energy producers and consumers to make good investments, methods have been developed to make predictions of wind power production. These methods are often based on machine learning were historical we...

  5. A Free Wake Numerical Simulation for Darrieus Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Performance Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belu, Radian

    2010-11-01

    In the last four decades, several aerodynamic prediction models have been formulated for the Darrieus wind turbine performances and characteristics. We can identified two families: stream-tube and vortex. The paper presents a simplified numerical techniques for simulating vertical axis wind turbine flow, based on the lifting line theory and a free vortex wake model, including dynamic stall effects for predicting the performances of a 3-D vertical axis wind turbine. A vortex model is used in which the wake is composed of trailing stream-wise and shedding span-wise vortices, whose strengths are equal to the change in the bound vortex strength as required by the Helmholz and Kelvin theorems. Performance parameters are computed by application of the Biot-Savart law along with the Kutta-Jukowski theorem and a semi-empirical stall model. We tested the developed model with an adaptation of the earlier multiple stream-tube performance prediction model for the Darrieus turbines. Predictions by using our method are shown to compare favorably with existing experimental data and the outputs of other numerical models. The method can predict accurately the local and global performances of a vertical axis wind turbine, and can be used in the design and optimization of wind turbines for built environment applications.

  6. Causes of bat fatalities at wind turbines: Hypotheses and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryan, P.M.; Barclay, R.M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Thousands of industrial-scale wind turbines are being built across the world each year to meet the growing demand for sustainable energy. Bats of certain species are dying at wind turbines in unprecedented numbers. Species of bats consistently affected by turbines tend to be those that rely on trees as roosts and most migrate long distances. Although considerable progress has been made in recent years toward better understanding the problem, the causes of bat fatalities at turbines remain unclear. In this synthesis, we review hypothesized causes of bat fatalities at turbines. Hypotheses of cause fall into 2 general categoriesproximate and ultimate. Proximate causes explain the direct means by which bats die at turbines and include collision with towers and rotating blades, and barotrauma. Ultimate causes explain why bats come close to turbines and include 3 general types: random collisions, coincidental collisions, and collisions that result from attraction of bats to turbines. The random collision hypothesis posits that interactions between bats and turbines are random events and that fatalities are representative of the bats present at a site. Coincidental hypotheses posit that certain aspects of bat distribution or behavior put them at risk of collision and include aggregation during migration and seasonal increases in flight activity associated with feeding or mating. A surprising number of attraction hypotheses suggest that bats might be attracted to turbines out of curiosity, misperception, or as potential feeding, roosting, flocking, and mating opportunities. Identifying, prioritizing, and testing hypothesized causes of bat collisions with wind turbines are vital steps toward developing practical solutions to the problem. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

  7. Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

    2017-07-01

    The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

  8. Resource Sharing in the Logistics of the Offshore Wind Farm Installation Process based on a Simulation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thies Beinke

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This present contribution examines by means of a discrete event and agent-based simulation the potential of a joint use of resources in the installation phase of offshore wind energy. To this end, wind farm projects to be installed simultaneously are being examined, the impact of weather restrictions on the processes of loading, transport and installation are also taken into consideration, and both the wind farm specific resource allocation and the approach of a resource pool or resource sharing, respectively, are being implemented. This study is motivated by the large number of wind farms that will be installed in the future and by the potential savings that might be realized through resource sharing. While, so far, the main driver of the resource sharing approach has been the end consumer market, it has been applied in more and more areas, even in relatively conservative industries such as logistics. After the presentation of the backgrounds and of the underlying methodology, and the description of the prior art in this context, the network of the offshore wind energy installation phase will be described. This is the basis for the subsequent determination of the savings potential of a shared resource utilization, which is determined by the performance indicators such as the total installation time and degree of utilization of the resources. The results of the simulation show that weather restrictions have a significant effect on the installation times and the usage times of the resources as well as on their degree of utilization. In addition, the resource sharing approach, has been identified to have significant savings potential for the offshore wind energy installation.

  9. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...

  10. Comparison of measured and predicted airfoil self-noise with application to wind turbine noise reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dassen, T.; Parchen, R.; Guidati, G.; Wagner, S.; Kang, S.; Khodak, A.E.

    1998-01-01

    In the ongoing JOULE-III project 'Development of Design Tools for Reduced Aerodynamic Noise Wind Turbines (DRAW)', prediction codes for inflow-turbulence (IT) noise and turbulent boundary layer trailing-edge (TE) noise, are developed and validated. It is shown that the differences in IT noise radiation between airfoils having a different shape, are correctly predicted. The first, preliminary comparison made between predicted and measured TE noise spectra yields satisfactory results. 17 refs

  11. Model predictive control for power fluctuation supression in hybrid wind/PV/battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Liu, Zongyu; Zong, Yi

    2015-01-01

    A hybrid energy system, the combination of wind turbines, PV panels and battery storage with effective control mechanism, represents a promising solution to the power fluctuation problem when integrating renewable energy resources (RES) into conventional power systems. This paper proposes a model...

  12. Verification of some numerical models for operationally predicting mesoscale winds aloft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornett, J.S.; Randerson, D.

    1977-01-01

    Four numerical models are described for predicting mesoscale winds aloft for a 6 h period. These models are all tested statistically against persistence as the control forecast and against predictions made by operational forecasters. Mesoscale winds aloft data were used to initialize the models and to verify the predictions on an hourly basis. The model yielding the smallest root-mean-square vector errors (RMSVE's) was the one based on the most physics which included advection, ageostrophic acceleration, vertical mixing and friction. Horizontal advection was found to be the most important term in reducing the RMSVE's followed by ageostrophic acceleration, vertical advection, surface friction and vertical mixing. From a comparison of the mean absolute errors based on up to 72 independent wind-profile predictions made by operational forecasters, by the most complete model, and by persistence, we conclude that the model is the best wind predictor in the free air. In the boundary layer, the results tend to favor the forecaster for direction predictions. The speed predictions showed no overall superiority in any of these three models

  13. Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

    1997-12-31

    Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)

  14. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  15. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  16. Human Resource Predictive Analytics HRPA For HR Management In Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujeet N. Mishra

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Human resource predictive analytics is an evolving application field of analytics for HRM purposes. The purpose of HRM is measuring employee performance and engagement studying workforce collaboration patterns analyzing employee churn and turnover and modelling employee lifetime value. The motive of applying HRPA is to optimize performances and produce better return on investment for organizations through decision making based on data collection HR metrics and predictive models. The paper is divided into three sections to understand the emergence of HR predictive analytics for HRM. Firstly the paper introduces the concept of HRPA. Secondly the paper discusses three aspects of HRPA a Need b Approach amp Application c Impact. Lastly the paper leads to the conclusion on HRPA.

  17. Wind gust estimation by combining numerical weather prediction model and statistical post-processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlakas, Platon; Drakaki, Eleni; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Kallos, George

    2017-04-01

    The continuous rise of off-shore and near-shore activities as well as the development of structures, such as wind farms and various offshore platforms, requires the employment of state-of-the-art risk assessment techniques. Such analysis is used to set the safety standards and can be characterized as a climatologically oriented approach. Nevertheless, a reliable operational support is also needed in order to minimize cost drawbacks and human danger during the construction and the functioning stage as well as during maintenance activities. One of the most important parameters for this kind of analysis is the wind speed intensity and variability. A critical measure associated with this variability is the presence and magnitude of wind gusts as estimated in the reference level of 10m. The latter can be attributed to different processes that vary among boundary-layer turbulence, convection activities, mountain waves and wake phenomena. The purpose of this work is the development of a wind gust forecasting methodology combining a Numerical Weather Prediction model and a dynamical statistical tool based on Kalman filtering. To this end, the parameterization of Wind Gust Estimate method was implemented to function within the framework of the atmospheric model SKIRON/Dust. The new modeling tool combines the atmospheric model with a statistical local adaptation methodology based on Kalman filters. This has been tested over the offshore west coastline of the United States. The main purpose is to provide a useful tool for wind analysis and prediction and applications related to offshore wind energy (power prediction, operation and maintenance). The results have been evaluated by using observational data from the NOAA's buoy network. As it was found, the predicted output shows a good behavior that is further improved after the local adjustment post-process.

  18. Two-Stage Coordinated Operational Strategy for Distributed Energy Resources Considering Wind Power Curtailment Penalty Cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Qiu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of virtual power plant (VPP has been proposed to facilitate the integration of distributed renewable energy. VPP behaves similar to a single entity that aggregates a collection of distributed energy resources (DERs such as distributed generators, storage devices, flexible loads, etc., so that the aggregated power outputs can be flexibly dispatched and traded in electricity markets. This paper presents an optimal scheduling model for VPP participating in day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. In the DA market, VPP aims to maximize the expected profit and reduce the risk in relation to uncertainties. The risk is measured by a risk factor based on the mean-variance Markowitz theory. In the RT market, VPP aims to minimize the imbalance cost and wind power curtailment by adjusting the scheduling of DERs in its portfolio. In case studies, the benefits (e.g., surplus profit and reduced wind power curtailment of aggregated VPP operation are assessed. Moreover, we have investigated how these benefits are affected by different risk-aversion levels and uncertainty levels. According to the simulation results, the aggregated VPP scheduling approach can effectively help the integration of wind power, mitigate the impact of uncertainties, and reduce the cost of risk-aversion.

  19. Adjoint-based model predictive control of wind farms : Beyond the quasi steady-state power maximization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vali, M.; Petrović, Vlaho; Boersma, S.; van Wingerden, J.W.; Kuhn, Martin; Dochain, Denis; Henrion, Didier; Peaucelle, Dimitri

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we extend our closed-loop optimal control framework for wind farms to minimize wake-induced power losses. We develop an adjoint-based model predictive controller which employs a medium-fidelity 2D dynamic wind farm model. The wind turbine axial induction factors are considered here

  20. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

  1. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  2. Discussion of “Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm generation forecasts” and “Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Tastu, Julija

    2014-01-01

    A new score for the evaluation of interval forecasts, the so-called coverage width-based criterion (CWC), was proposed and utilized.. This score has been used for the tuning (in-sample) and genuine evaluation (out-ofsample) of prediction intervals for various applications, e.g., electric load [1......], electricity prices [2], general purpose prediction [3], and wind power generation [4], [5]. Indeed, two papers by the same authors appearing in the IEEE Transactions On Sustainable Energy employ that score and use it to conclude on the comparative quality of alternative approaches to interval forecasting...

  3. Performance analysis of wind resource assessment software in different wind sites in México and Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Jorio, Nyzar

    2010-01-01

    Renewable energy sources are increasing in order to provide power with minimal envi- ronmental impact. The most commercially advanced of these at present is wind power. The production and use of wind energy opens new opportunities for Latin American coun- tries to limit the emissions of carbon dioxide. It will provide a cleaner, sustainable, efficient and competitive energy matrix. According to the Latin American Wind Energy Association (LAWEA), Latin America has an installed capacity of only...

  4. The Energy Commission's notice to the Minister of Natural Resources regarding the place of wind energy in Quebec's energy portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumais, A.; Frayne, A.; Tanguay, F.

    1998-01-01

    In December 1997 Quebec's Minister of Natural Resources requested that the Energy Commission advise him on the quota given to wind energy in the future energy development plans of Hydro-Quebec. The Commission's report to the Minister includes 18 recommendations. Among these is a recommendation that an assessment of wind resources be conducted as soon as possible to identify suitable sites for the installation of wind turbines. A provincial program for the development of wind energy is also recommended, to be initiated by the year 2002, and that it should proceed over the next nine years to reach a target production capacity of 450 MW by the year 2011. This production would come from the yearly installation of 60 to 70 wind turbines of 750 kV. The Commission also recommended that in the initial years costs for this wind energy not exceed that of the Le Nordais project, i.e. 5.8 cents per kWh. Any additional costs incurred in the generation of wind electricity over conventional hydro power should be assumed by the Quebec Government. Conversely, in instances where the wind power is sold to consumers outside of the province, Hydro-Quebec should pay for the full cost of this power. 8 tabs., 1 appendix

  5. Model predictive control of PMSG-based wind turbines for frequency regulation in an isolated grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haixin; Yang, Junyou; Ma, Yiming

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a frequency regulation strategy applied to wind turbine generators (WTGs) in an isolated grid. In order to complement active power shortage caused by sudden load or wind speed change, an improved deloading method is proposed to solve inconsistent regulation capabilities...... in different speed regions and provide WTGs a certain capacity of power reserves. Considering the torque compensation may bring about power oscillation, speed reference of conventional pitch control system should be reset. Moreover, to suppress disturbances of load and wind speed as well as overcome dependence...... on system parameters, a model predictive controller (MPC) of wind farm is designed to generate torque compensation for each deloaded WTG. The key feature of this strategy is that each WTG reacts to grid disturbances in different ways, which depends on generator speeds. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation...

  6. Wind versus coal: Comparing the local economic impacts of energy resource development in Appalachia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Alan R.; Hansen, Evan; Hendryx, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Two energy development scenarios were compared for the Coal River Mountain in Raleigh County, West Virginia: (1) mountaintop mining (MTM) of coal, and (2) wind energy plus underground mining of coal. Economic impact computations over the life of each energy development scenario were made on a county basis for output of goods and services, the number of jobs created, and local earnings. Externality costs were assigned monetary values for coal mining and subtracted from earnings. Premature mortality within the general population due to additional coal mining accounted for 96% of these external cost computations. The results showed that economic output over the life of each scenario was twice as high for MTM mining as wind energy plus underground coal mining. Over the short term, employment and earnings were higher for MTM mining, but towards the end of the scenario, cumulative employment and earnings became higher under scenario (2). When local externality costs were subtracted from local earnings, MTM coal production had an overall negative net social impact on the citizens of Raleigh County. The external costs of MTM coal production provide an explanation of the existence of a “resource curse” and the conflicting results of output versus income provide insights into why coal-producing counties are underdeveloped. - Highlights: ► Mountaintop mining (MTM) was compared to wind plus underground mining. ► Economic output was twice as high for MTM. ► Employment and earnings were cumulatively higher for wind energy. ► Including local externality costs, MTM had an overall negative net social impact. ► Results provide insights into why coal-producing counties are underdeveloped.

  7. Joint Evaluation of the Wave and Offshore Wind Energy Resources in the Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen Rusu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present work is to assess the global wind and wave resources in the vicinity of some developing countries by evaluating 16-year of data (2001–2016, coming from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. Until now, not much work has been done to evaluate and use the renewable energy sources from these marine environments. This is because most of the attention was focused on more promising areas, such as the European coasts, which are more advanced in terms of technical and economical aspects. A general perspective of the current energy market from the selected target areas is first presented, indicating at the same time the progresses that have been reported in the field of the renewable energy. Besides the spatial and seasonal variations of the marine resources considered, the results also indicate the energy potential of these coastal environments as well as the performances of some offshore wind turbines, which may operate in these regions.

  8. Wind field near complex terrain using numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chim, Kin-Sang

    The PennState/NCAR MM5 model was modified to simulate an idealized flow pass through a 3D obstacle in the Micro- Alpha Scale domain. The obstacle used were the idealized Gaussian obstacle and the real topography of Lantau Island of Hong Kong. The Froude number under study is ranged from 0.22 to 1.5. Regime diagrams for both the idealized Gaussian obstacle and Lantau island were constructed. This work is divided into five parts. The first part is the problem definition and the literature review of the related publications. The second part briefly discuss as the PennState/NCAR MM5 model and a case study of long- range transport is included. The third part is devoted to the modification and the verification of the PennState/NCAR MM5 model on the Micro-Alpha Scale domain. The implementation of the Orlanski (1976) open boundary condition is included with the method of single sounding initialization of the model. Moreover, an upper dissipative layer, Klemp and Lilly (1978), is implemented on the model. The simulated result is verified by the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data and the Wind Profiler data. Four different types of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes have been investigated in order to find out the most suitable one for Micro-Alpha Scale domain in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Bulk Aerodynamic type of PBL parameterization scheme is found to be the most suitable PBL parameterization scheme. Investigation of the free- slip lower boundary condition is performed and the simulated result is compared with that with friction. The fourth part is the use of the modified PennState/NCAR MM5 model for an idealized flow simulation. The idealized uniform flow used is nonhydrostatic and has constant Froude number. Sensitivity test is performed by varying the Froude number and the regime diagram is constructed. Moreover, nondimensional drag is found to be useful for regime identification. The model result is also compared with the analytic

  9. A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for short-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chi; Wei, Haikun; Zhao, Xin; Liu, Tianhong; Zhang, Kanjian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. • This method combines the parametric AR model with the non-parametric GPR model. • The relative importance of different inputs is considered. • Different types of covariance functions are considered and combined. • It can provide both accurate point forecasts and satisfactory prediction intervals. - Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid model based on autoregressive (AR) model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. In the proposed approach, the AR model is employed to capture the overall structure from wind speed series, and the GPR is adopted to extract the local structure. Additionally, automatic relevance determination (ARD) is used to take into account the relative importance of different inputs, and different types of covariance functions are combined to capture the characteristics of the data. The proposed hybrid model is compared with the persistence model, artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) for one-step ahead forecasting, using wind speed data collected from three wind farms in China. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method can not only improve point forecasts compared with other methods, but also generate satisfactory prediction intervals.

  10. The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Van Zee, Justin W; Courtright, Ericha M; Hugenholtz, Ted M; Zobeck, Ted M; Okin, Gregory S.; Barchyn, Thomas E; Billings, Benjamin J; Boyd, Robert A.; Clingan, Scott D; Cooper, Brad F; Duniway, Michael C.; Derner, Justin D.; Fox, Fred A; Havstad, Kris M.; Heilman, Philip; LaPlante, Valerie; Ludwig, Noel A; Metz, Loretta J; Nearing, Mark A; Norfleet, M Lee; Pierson, Frederick B; Sanderson, Matt A; Sharrat, Brenton S; Steiner, Jean L; Tatarko, John; Tedela, Negussie H; Todelo, David; Unnasch, Robert S; Van Pelt, R Scott; Wagner, Larry

    2016-01-01

    The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, to address the need for a long-term research program to meet critical challenges in wind erosion research and management in the United States. The Network has three aims: (1) provide data to support understanding of basic aeolian processes across land use types, land cover types, and management practices, (2) support development and application of models to assess wind erosion and dust emission and their impacts on human and environmental systems, and (3) encourage collaboration among the aeolian research community and resource managers for the transfer of wind erosion technologies. The Network currently consists of thirteen intensively instrumented sites providing measurements of aeolian sediment transport rates, meteorological conditions, and soil and vegetation properties that influence wind erosion. Network sites are located across rangelands, croplands, and deserts of the western US. In support of Network activities, http://winderosionnetwork.org was developed as a portal for information about the Network, providing site descriptions, measurement protocols, and data visualization tools to facilitate collaboration with scientists and managers interested in the Network and accessing Network products. The Network provides a mechanism for engaging national and international partners in a wind erosion research program that addresses the need for improved understanding and prediction of aeolian processes across complex and diverse land use types and management practices.

  11. Predicting the Extreme Loads on a Wind Turbine Considering Uncertainty in Airfoil Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdallah, Imad; Natarajan, Anand; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    The sources contributing to uncertainty in a wind turbine blade static airfoil data include wind tunnel testing, CFD calculations, 3D rotational corrections based on CFD or emprircal models, surface roughness corrections, Reynolds number corrections, expansion to the full 360-degree angle of attack...... range, validation by full scale measurements, and geometric distortions of the blade during manufacturing and under loading. In this paper a stochastic model of the static airfoil data is proposed to supplement the prediction of extreme loads effects for large wind turbines. It is shown...... that the uncertainty in airfoil data can have e significant impact on the prediction of extreme loads effects depending on the component, and the correlation along the span of the blade....

  12. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  13. Comparison of four Adaboost algorithm based artificial neural networks in wind speed predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Four hybrid algorithms are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Adaboost algorithm is adopted to provide a hybrid training framework. • MLP neural networks are built to do the forecasting computation. • Four important network training algorithms are included in the MLP networks. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, four different hybrid methods are proposed for the high-precision multi-step wind speed predictions based on the Adaboost (Adaptive Boosting) algorithm and the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) neural networks. In the hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture, four important algorithms are adopted for the training and modeling of the MLP neural networks, including GD-ALR-BP algorithm, GDM-ALR-BP algorithm, CG-BP-FR algorithm and BFGS algorithm. The aim of the study is to investigate the promoted forecasting percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm’ optimization under various training algorithms. The hybrid models in the performance comparison include Adaboost–GD-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP, Adaboost–BFGS–MLP, GD-ALR-BP–MLP, GDM-ALR-BP–MLP, CG-BP-FR–MLP and BFGS–MLP. Two experimental results show that: (1) the proposed hybrid Adaboost–MLP forecasting architecture is effective for the wind speed predictions; (2) the Adaboost algorithm has promoted the forecasting performance of the MLP neural networks considerably; (3) among the proposed Adaboost–MLP forecasting models, the Adaboost–CG-BP-FR–MLP model has the best performance; and (4) the improved percentages of the MLP neural networks by the Adaboost algorithm decrease step by step with the following sequence of training algorithms as: GD-ALR-BP, GDM-ALR-BP, CG-BP-FR and BFGS

  14. Improved prediction of aerodynamic noise from wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guidati, G.; Bareiss, R.; Wagner, S. [Univ. of Stuttgart, Inst. of Aerodynamics and Gasdynamics, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1997-12-31

    This paper focuses on an improved prediction model for inflow-turbulence noise which takes the true airfoil shape into account. Predictions are compared to the results of acoustic measurements on three 2D-models of 0.25 m chord. Two of the models have NACA-636xx airfoils of 12% and 18% relative thickness. The third airfoil was acoustically optimized by using the new prediction model. In the experiments the turbulence intensity of the flow was strongly increased by mounting a grid with 60 mm wide meshes and 12 mm thick rods onto the tunnel exhaust nozzle. The sound radiated from the airfoil was distinguished by the tunnel background noise by using an acoustic antenna consisting of a cross array of 36 microphones in total. An application of a standard beam-forming algorithm allows to determine how much noise is radiated from different parts of the models. This procedure normally results in a peak at the leading and trailing edge of the airfoil. The strength of the leading-edge peak is taken as the source strength for inflow-turbulence noise. (LN) 14 refs.

  15. Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Gwang-Se; Cheong, Cheolung, E-mail: ccheong@pusan.ac.kr [School of Mechanical Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-745, Rep. of Korea (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs), few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF) wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF) noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

  16. Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwang-Se Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs, few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

  17. Towards accurate performance prediction of a vertical axis wind turbine operating at different tip speed ratios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeiha, A.; Kalkman, I.; Blocken, B.J.E.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of the performance of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) using CFD simulation requires the employment of a sufficiently fine azimuthal increment (dθ) combined with a mesh size at which essential flow characteristics can be accurately resolved. Furthermore, the domain size needs

  18. Development of ANN Model for Wind Speed Prediction as a Support for Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Marović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural disasters increases every year with more casualties and damage to property and the environment. Therefore, it is important to prevent consequences by implementation of the early warning system (EWS in order to announce the possibility of the harmful phenomena occurrence. In this paper, focus is placed on the implementation of the EWS on the micro location in order to announce possible harmful phenomena occurrence caused by wind. In order to predict such phenomena (wind speed, an artificial neural network (ANN prediction model is developed. The model is developed on the basis of the input data obtained by local meteorological station on the University of Rijeka campus area in the Republic of Croatia. The prediction model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches, after which it was found that it is possible to perform very good wind speed prediction for time steps Δt=1 h, Δt=3 h, and Δt=8 h. The developed model is implemented in the EWS as a decision support for improvement of the existing “procedure plan in a case of the emergency caused by stormy wind or hurricane, snow and occurrence of the ice on the University of Rijeka campus.”

  19. Health-aware Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Fatigue Prognosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sardi, Hector Eloy Sanchez; Escobet, Teressa; Puig, Vicenc

    2015-01-01

    management module with the control provides a mechanism for the wind turbine to operate safely and optimize the trade-off between components life and energy production. The research presented in this paper explores the integration of model predictive control (MPC) with fatigue-based prognosis approach...

  20. Model Predictive Control of Trailing Edge Flaps on a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Buhl, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Trailing Edge Flaps on wind turbine blades have been studied in order to achieve fatigue load reduction on the turbine components. We show in this paper how Model Predictive Control can be used to do frequency weighted control of the trailing edge flaps in order to reduce fatigue damage on the bl...

  1. 75 FR 75961 - Notice of Implementation of the Wind Erosion Prediction System for Soil Erodibility System...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-07

    ... implementation of the WEPS system does not affect the Highly Erodible Map Unit List contained in the NRCS Field Office Technical Guide as of January 1, 1990. This 1990 list will continue to be used for all erodibility... plant damage, and predict PM-10 emissions when wind speeds exceed the erosion threshold. The WEPS model...

  2. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude

  3. A LIDAR-assisted model predictive controller added on a traditional wind turbine controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2016-01-01

    control and opens the market of retrofitting existing wind turbines with the new technology. In this paper, we suggest a model predictive controller (MPC) that is added to the basic gain scheduled PI controller of a WT to enhance the performance of the closed loop system using LIDAR measurements...

  4. Dynamic Loads and Wake Prediction for Large Wind Turbines Based on Free Wake Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cao Jiufa; Wang Tongguang; Long Hui; Ke Shitang; Xu Bofeng

    2015-01-01

    With large scale wind turbines ,the issue of aerodynamic elastic response is even more significant on dy-namic behaviour of the system .Unsteady free vortex wake method is proposed to calculate the shape of wake and aerodynamic load .Considering the effect of aerodynamic load ,inertial load and gravity load ,the decoupling dy-namic equations are established by using finite element method in conjunction of the modal method and equations are solved numerically by Newmark approach .Finally ,the numerical simulation of a large scale wind turbine is performed through coupling the free vortex wake modelling with structural modelling .The results show that this coupling model can predict the flexible wind turbine dynamic characteristics effectively and efficiently .Under the influence of the gravitational force ,the dynamic response of flapwise direction contributes to the dynamic behavior of edgewise direction under the operational condition of steady wind speed .The difference in dynamic response be-tween the flexible and rigid wind turbines manifests when the aerodynamics/structure coupling effect is of signifi-cance in both wind turbine design and performance calculation .

  5. Observations and Predictability of Gap Winds in the Salmon River Canyon of Central Idaho, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates gap winds in a steep, deep river canyon prone to wildland fire. The driving mechanisms and the potential for forecasting the gap winds are investigated. The onset and strength of the gap winds are found to be correlated to the formation of an along-gap pressure gradient linked to periodic development of a thermal trough in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Numerical simulations are performed using a reanalysis dataset to investigate the ability of numerical weather prediction (NWP to simulate the observed gap wind events, including the timing and flow characteristics within the canyon. The effects of model horizontal grid spacing and terrain representation are considered. The reanalysis simulations suggest that horizontal grid spacings used in operational NWP could be sufficient for simulating the gap flow events given the regional-scale depression in which the Salmon River Canyon is situated. The strength of the events, however, is under-predicted due, at least in part, to terrain smoothing in the model. Routine NWP, however, is found to have mixed results in terms of forecasting the gap wind events, primarily due to problems in simulating the regional sea level pressure system correctly.

  6. Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gleisner

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

  7. Overview and Meteorological Validation of the Wind Integration National Dataset toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, B. M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCaa, J. [3TIER by VAisala, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2015-04-13

    The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this report fulfills these requirements, and constitutes a state-of-the-art national wind resource data set covering the contiguous United States from 2007 to 2013 for use in a variety of next-generation wind integration analyses and wind power planning. The toolkit is a wind resource data set, wind forecast data set, and wind power production and forecast data set derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. WIND Toolkit data are available online for over 116,000 land-based and 10,000 offshore sites representing existing and potential wind facilities.

  8. Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macwilkinson, D. G.; Blackerby, W. T.; Paterson, J. H.

    1974-01-01

    The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

  9. A comparative study of various inflow boundary conditions and turbulence models for wind turbine wake predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin-Lin; Zhao, Ning; Song, Yi-Lei; Zhu, Chun-Ling

    2018-05-01

    This work is devoted to perform systematic sensitivity analysis of different turbulence models and various inflow boundary conditions in predicting the wake flow behind a horizontal axis wind turbine represented by an actuator disc (AD). The tested turbulence models are the standard k-𝜀 model and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). A single wind turbine immersed in both uniform flows and in modeled atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows is studied. Simulation results are validated against the field experimental data in terms of wake velocity and turbulence intensity.

  10. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  11. A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

    2013-01-01

    Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

  12. Year-to-year correlation, record length, and overconfidence in wind resource assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bodini

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Interannual variability of wind speeds presents a fundamental source of uncertainty in preconstruction energy estimates. Our analysis of one of the longest and geographically most widespread extant sets of instrumental wind-speed observations (62-year records from 60 stations in Canada shows that deviations from mean resource levels persist over many decades, substantially increasing uncertainty. As a result of this persistence, the performance of each site's last 20 years diverges more widely than expected from the P50 level estimated from its first 42 years: half the sites have either fewer than 5 or more than 15 years exceeding the P50 estimate. In contrast to this 10-year-wide interquartile range, a 4-year-wide range (2.5 times narrower was found for "control" records where statistical independence was enforced by randomly permuting each station's historical values. Similarly, for sites with capacity factor of 0.35 and interannual variability of 6  %, one would expect 9 years in 10 to fall in the range 0.32–0.38; we find the actual 90  % range to be 0.27–0.43, or three times wider. The previously un-quantified effect of serial correlations favors a shift in resource-assessment thinking from a climatology-focused approach to a persistence-focused approach: for this data set, no improvement in P50 error is gained by using records longer than 4–5 years, and use of records longer than 20 years actually degrades accuracy.

  13. Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Kuilin; Yu, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid modeling method is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. • Support vector regression model is constructed to formulate nonlinear state-space framework. • Unscented Kalman filter is adopted to recursively update states under random uncertainty. • The new SVR–UKF approach is compared to several conventional methods for short-term wind speed prediction. • The proposed method demonstrates higher prediction accuracy and reliability. - Abstract: Accurate wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. Particularly, reliable short-term wind speed prediction can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, this task remains challenging due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed. In this study, unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is integrated with support vector regression (SVR) based state-space model in order to precisely update the short-term estimation of wind speed sequence. In the proposed SVR–UKF approach, support vector regression is first employed to formulate a nonlinear state-space model and then unscented Kalman filter is adopted to perform dynamic state estimation recursively on wind sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The novel SVR–UKF method is compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVR, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive integrated with Kalman filter (AR-Kalman) approaches for predicting short-term wind speed sequences collected from three sites in Massachusetts, USA. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method has much better performance in both one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead wind speed predictions than the other approaches across all the locations

  14. Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Long, Andrew J.; Stamm, John; King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominque M.; Norton, Parker A.

    2014-01-01

    Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves

  15. Controllable and affordable utility-scale electricity from intermittent wind resources and compressed air energy storage (CAES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavallo, Alfred

    2007-01-01

    World wind energy resources are substantial, and in many areas, such as the US and northern Europe, could in theory supply all of the electricity demand. However, the remote or challenging location (i.e. offshore) and especially the intermittent character of the wind resources present formidable barriers to utilization on the scale required by a modern industrial economy. All of these technical challenges can be overcome. Long distance transmission is well understood, while offshore wind technology is being developed rapidly. Intermittent wind power can be transformed to a controllable power source with hybrid wind/compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems. The cost of electricity from such hybrid systems (including transmission) is affordable, and comparable to what users in some modern industrial economies already pay for electricity. This approach to intermittent energy integration has many advantages compared to the current strategy of forcing utilities to cope with supply uncertainty and transmission costs. Above all, it places intermittent wind on an equal technical footing with every other generation technology, including nuclear power, its most important long-term competitor

  16. Vibration Analysis and Time Series Prediction for Wind Turbine Gearbox Prognostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam A. Gabbar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Premature failure of a gearbox in a wind turbine poses a high risk of increasing the operational and maintenance costs and decreasing the profit margins. Prognostics and health management (PHM techniques are widely used to access the current health condition of the gearbox and project it in future to predict premature failures. This paper proposes such techniques for predicting gearbox health condition index extracted from the vibration signals emanating from the gearbox. The progression of the monitoring index is predicted using two different prediction techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX. The proposed prediction techniques are evaluated through sun-spot data-set and applied on vibration based health related monitoring index calculated through psychoacoustic phenomenon. A comparison is given for their prediction accuracy. The results are helpful in understanding the relationship of machine conditions, the corresponding indicating features, the level of damage/degradation, and their progression.

  17. Comparison of several measure-correlate-predict models using support vector regression techniques to estimate wind power densities. A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz, Santiago; Carta, José A.; Matías, José M.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Eight measure-correlate-predict (MCP) models used to estimate the wind power densities (WPDs) at a target site are compared. • Support vector regressions are used as the main prediction techniques in the proposed MCPs. • The most precise MCP uses two sub-models which predict wind speed and air density in an unlinked manner. • The most precise model allows to construct a bivariable (wind speed and air density) WPD probability density function. • MCP models trained to minimise wind speed prediction error do not minimise WPD prediction error. - Abstract: The long-term annual mean wind power density (WPD) is an important indicator of wind as a power source which is usually included in regional wind resource maps as useful prior information to identify potentially attractive sites for the installation of wind projects. In this paper, a comparison is made of eight proposed Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) models to estimate the WPDs at a target site. Seven of these models use the Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the eighth the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) technique, which serves as a basis to compare the performance of the other models. In addition, a wrapper technique with 10-fold cross-validation has been used to select the optimal set of input features for the SVR and MLR models. Some of the eight models were trained to directly estimate the mean hourly WPDs at a target site. Others, however, were firstly trained to estimate the parameters on which the WPD depends (i.e. wind speed and air density) and then, using these parameters, the target site mean hourly WPDs. The explanatory features considered are different combinations of the mean hourly wind speeds, wind directions and air densities recorded in 2014 at ten weather stations in the Canary Archipelago (Spain). The conclusions that can be drawn from the study undertaken include the argument that the most accurate method for the long-term estimation of WPDs requires the execution of a

  18. Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

  19. Comparison of Flight Measured, Predicted and Wind Tunnel Measured Winglet Characteristics on a KC-135 Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, R. O., Jr.

    1982-01-01

    One of the objectives of the KC-135 Winglet Flight Research and Demonstration Program was to obtain experimental flight test data to verify the theoretical and wind tunnel winglet aerodynamic performance prediction methods. Good agreement between analytic, wind tunnel and flight test performance was obtained when the known differences between the tests and analyses were accounted for. The flight test measured fuel mileage improvements for a 0.78 Mach number was 3.1 percent at 8 x 10(5) pounds W/delta and 5.5 percent at 1.05 x 10(6) pounds W/delta. Correcting the flight measured data for surface pressure differences between wind tunnel and flight resulted in a fuel mileage improvement of 4.4 percent at 8 x 10(5) pounds W/delta and 7.2 percent at 1.05 x 10(6) pounds W/delta. The performance improvement obtained was within the wind tunnel test data obtained from two different wind tunnel models. The buffet boundary data obtained for the baseline configuration was in good agreement with previous established data. Buffet data for the 15 deg cant/-4 deg incidence configuration showed a slight improvement, while the 15 deg cant/-2 deg incidence and 0 deg cant/-4 deg incidence data showed a slight deterioration.

  20. Energy Coordinative Optimization of Wind-Storage-Load Microgrids Based on Short-Term Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changbin Hu

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available According to the topological structure of wind-storage-load complementation microgrids, this paper proposes a method for energy coordinative optimization which focuses on improvement of the economic benefits of microgrids in the prediction framework. First of all, the external characteristic mathematical model of distributed generation (DG units including wind turbines and storage batteries are established according to the requirements of the actual constraints. Meanwhile, using the minimum consumption costs from the external grid as the objective function, a grey prediction model with residual modification is introduced to output the predictive wind turbine power and load at specific periods. Second, based on the basic framework of receding horizon optimization, an intelligent genetic algorithm (GA is applied to figure out the optimum solution in the predictive horizon for the complex non-linear coordination control model of microgrids. The optimum results of the GA are compared with the receding solution of mixed integer linear programming (MILP. The obtained results show that the method is a viable approach for energy coordinative optimization of microgrid systems for energy flow and reasonable schedule. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by examples.

  1. Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erasmo Cadenas

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.

  2. A GIS-assisted approach to wide-area wind resource assessment and site selection for the state of Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Hurley, P. [RLA Consulting, Bothell, WA (United States); Simon, R. [Consulting Meteorologist, Mill Valley, CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the methodology and results of a wide-area wind resource assessment and site selection in Colorado. This was the first phase in a three-part assessment and monitoring program conducted for the State of Colorado Office of Energy Conservation and several collaborating utilities. The objective of this phase was to identify up to 20 candidate sites for evaluation and possible long-term monitoring. This was accomplished using a geographic information system (GIS), which takes into account such factors as topography, existing wind resource data, locations of transmission lines, land cover, and land use. The resulting list of sites recommended for evaluation in Phase 2 of the study includes locations throughout Colorado, but most are in the eastern plains. The GIS wind siting model may be modified and updated in the future as additional information becomes available. 3 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Feature selection in wind speed prediction systems based on a hybrid coral reefs optimization – Extreme learning machine approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Pastor-Sánchez, A.; Prieto, L.; Blanco-Aguilera, A.; García-Herrera, R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction is presented. • The system is formed by a coral reefs optimization algorithm and an extreme learning machine. • Feature selection is carried out with the CRO to improve the ELM performance. • The method is tested in real wind farm data in USA, for the period 2007–2008. - Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction based on a Coral Reefs Optimization algorithm (CRO) and an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), using meteorological predictive variables from a physical model (the Weather Research and Forecast model, WRF). The approach is based on a Feature Selection Problem (FSP) carried out with the CRO, that must obtain a reduced number of predictive variables out of the total available from the WRF. This set of features will be the input of an ELM, that finally provides the wind speed prediction. The CRO is a novel bio-inspired approach, based on the simulation of reef formation and coral reproduction, able to obtain excellent results in optimization problems. On the other hand, the ELM is a new paradigm in neural networks’ training, that provides a robust and extremely fast training of the network. Together, these algorithms are able to successfully solve this problem of feature selection in short-term wind speed prediction. Experiments in a real wind farm in the USA show the excellent performance of the CRO–ELM approach in this FSP wind speed prediction problem

  4. Advancements in Wind Integration Study Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Jones, W.; Searight, K.; Getman, D.; Harrold, S.; McCaa, J.; Cline, J.; Clark, C.

    2013-10-01

    Regional wind integration studies in the United States require detailed wind power output data at many locations to perform simulations of how the power system will operate under high-penetration scenarios. The wind data sets that serve as inputs into the study must realistically reflect the ramping characteristics, spatial and temporal correlations, and capacity factors of the simulated wind plants, as well as be time synchronized with available load profiles. The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this paper fulfills these requirements. A wind resource dataset, wind power production time series, and simulated forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model run on a nationwide 2-km grid at 5-min resolution will be made publicly available for more than 110,000 onshore and offshore wind power production sites.

  5. Practical use of offsite atmospheric measurements to enhance profitability of onsite wind prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collier, Craig [GL Garrad Hassan (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the use of offsite atmospheric measurements to improve the profitability of onsite wind prediction. There are two common sensitivities used, intraday and interday. Results from US mid-western sites show that the error associated with wind predictions is large but there are possibilities for improvement. Inter- and intraday can be used traditionally to contribute towards NWP bias correction. Intraday alone can be used with machine learning and NWP. These techniques are compared and given in order of ease of use and potential accuracy gains. Some considerations and differences for all three techniques, namely, traditional, data assimilation and machine learning are also detailed. An offsite selection matrix shows how elements like location, geography and telemetry rate in the 3 techniques. The experimental setup for all 3 techniques over a 3-month period is given and the results are presented. It can be concluded that the results from these simple experiments show promise but vary in method and time scale.

  6. Application of model predictive control for optimal operation of wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yuan; Cao, Pei; Tang, J.

    2017-04-01

    For large-scale wind turbines, reducing maintenance cost is a major challenge. Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising approach to deal with multiple conflicting objectives using the weighed sum approach. In this research, model predictive control method is applied to wind turbine to find an optimal balance between multiple objectives, such as the energy capture, loads on turbine components, and the pitch actuator usage. The actuator constraints are integrated into the objective function at the control design stage. The analysis is carried out in both the partial load region and full load region, and the performances are compared with those of a baseline gain scheduling PID controller. The application of this strategy achieves enhanced balance of component loads, the average power and actuator usages in partial load region.

  7. Prediction of windings temperature rise in induction motors supplied with distorted voltage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnacinski, P. [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Ship Electrical Power Engineering, Morska Street 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2008-04-15

    One of the features of ship power systems is a different level and intensity of disturbances appearing during routine operation - the rms voltage value and frequency deviation, voltage unbalance and waveform voltage distortion. As a result, marine induction machines are exposed to overheating due to the lowered voltage quality. This paper is devoted to windings temperature rise prediction in marine induction cage machines supplied with distorted voltage, which means real voltage conditions. The proposed method of prediction does not require detailed knowledge of the thermal properties of a machine. Although the method was developed for marine induction motors, it is applicable for industry machines supplied with distorted voltage. It can also be generalized and used for estimation of the steady state windings temperature rise of any electrical machinery in various work conditions. (author)

  8. Prediction of windings temperature rise in induction motors supplied with distorted voltage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnacinski, P.

    2008-01-01

    One of the features of ship power systems is a different level and intensity of disturbances appearing during routine operation - the rms voltage value and frequency deviation, voltage unbalance and waveform voltage distortion. As a result, marine induction machines are exposed to overheating due to the lowered voltage quality. This paper is devoted to windings temperature rise prediction in marine induction cage machines supplied with distorted voltage, which means real voltage conditions. The proposed method of prediction does not require detailed knowledge of the thermal properties of a machine. Although the method was developed for marine induction motors, it is applicable for industry machines supplied with distorted voltage. It can also be generalized and used for estimation of the steady state windings temperature rise of any electrical machinery in various work conditions

  9. Large-scale, high-resolution wind resource mapping for wind farm planning and development in South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Badger, Jake; Hansen, Jens Carsten

    2014-01-01

    estimates are designed for national and provincial planning and strategic environmental impact assessment for wind power in South Africa and the results have therefore been made available in common GIS formats. The database of results is in the public domain and can be downloaded from the WASA web site...

  10. Model predictive control of trailing edge flaps on a wind turbine blade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castaignet, D.B.

    2011-11-15

    Trailing edge flaps on wind turbine blades have been investigated for several years. Aero-servoelastic simulations carried out with different simulation tools, trailing edge flaps configurations and controller designs proved that trailing edge flaps are a suitable solution for reducing some of the wind turbine fatigue and extreme loads. This potential was confirmed with wind tunnel tests made on blade sections with trailing edge flaps and on a scaled two-bladed wind turbine in a wind tunnel. The work presented in this thesis includes a full-scale test run on a Vestas V27 wind turbine equipped with three trailing edge flaps on one blade, located on DTU's Risoe Campus in Roskilde, Denmark. This thesis is divided into three parts: the controller design, results from simulations, and results from the experiments. The trailing edge flaps controller designed for this project is based on a frequency-weighted model predictive control, tuned in order to target only the flapwise blade root loads at the frequencies contributing the most to blade root fatigue damage (the 1P, 2P and 3P frequencies), and to avoid unnecessary wear and tear of the actuators at high frequencies. A disturbance model consisting in periodic disturbances at the rotor speed harmonic frequencies and a quasi-steady input disturbance is aggregated to an analytical model of a spinning blade with trailing edge flaps. Simulations on a multi-megawatt wind turbine show the potential of the trailing edge flaps to reduce the flapwise blade root fatigue loads by 23%, but also the main shaft and the tower fatigue loads by up to 32%. Extreme loads during normal production also benefit from the trailing edge flaps. At last, the same controller was run on the Vestas V27 wind turbine located at the Risoe Campus of the Technical University of Denmark, in Roskilde, Denmark. One blade of the turbine was equipped with three independent trailing edge flaps. In spite of the failure of several sensors and actuators, the

  11. Implementation of wind power in the Norwegian market; the reason why some of the best wind resources in Europe were not utilised by 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blindheim, Bernt

    2013-01-01

    Norway has some of the best wind resources in Europe. In 1999, the Norwegian Parliament committed to attain an annual onshore wind power production goal of 3.0 TWh by 2010; however, in 2010, onshore wind power production measured only 1.0 TWh. This article discusses the reasons that this goal was not achieved. The analysis addresses the key figures on the strategic, tactical and operational levels. This model is combined with a time line that seeks to define when different actors should have secured concessions and funding to achieve the goal. After introducing the time line, a list of questions is introduced for these key actors. The three-level model, the time line and the questions constitute the analytical framework. Explanations for the failure to achieve the goal may be identified on all three levels. However, the primary explanatory factors were political uncertainty in the support scheme and wind power's role in the energy market in general; both of these factors are identified on the strategic level. Uncertainty on the strategic level influenced the lower levels, which led to bottlenecks in the concession process and jittery investors who thought that the risk of investment in wind power was too high. - Highlights: • Implementation of wind power in the Norwegian energy system up to 2010. • The concession process, the support scheme and the marked players are considered. • Uncertainty about the support scheme slowed down the implementation process. • The concession process has been a bottleneck. • The support scheme has only to a certain degree trigged investments

  12. A pilot golden eagle population study in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, G. [California Univ., Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Predatory Bird Research Group

    1995-05-01

    Orloff and Flannery (1992) estimated that several hundred reports are annually killed by turbine collisions, wire strikes, and electrocutions at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (WRA). The most common fatalities were those of red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis), American kestrels (Falco sparvatius), and golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), with lesser numbers of turkey vultures (Cathartes aura), common ravens (Corvus corax), bam owls (Tyto alba), and others. Among the species of raptors killed at Altamont Pass, the one whose local population is most likely to be impacted is the golden eagle. Besides its being less abundant than the others, the breeding and recruitment rates of golden eagles are naturally slow, increasing their susceptibility to decline as a result of mortality influences. The golden eagle is a species afforded special federal protection because of its inclusion within the Bald Eagle Protection Act as amended in 1963. There are no provisions within the Act which would allow the killing ``taking`` of golden eagles by WRA structures. This report details the results of field studies conducted during 19941. The primary purpose of the investigation is to lay the groundwork for determining whether or not turbine strikes and other hazards related to energy at Altamont Pass may be expected to affect golden eagles on a population basis. We also seek an understanding of the physical and biotic circumstances which attract golden eagles to the WRA within the context of the surrounding landscape and the conditions under which they are killed by wind turbines. Such knowledge may suggest turbine-related or habitat modifications that would result in a lower incidence of eagle mortality.

  13. Remotely sensed data fusion for offshore wind energy resource mapping; Fusion de donnees satellitaires pour la cartographie du potentiel eolien offshore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ben Ticha, M.B

    2007-11-15

    Wind energy is a component of an energy policy contributing to a sustainable development. Last years, offshore wind parks have been installed offshore. These parks benefit from higher wind speeds and lower turbulence than onshore. To sit a wind park, it is necessary to have a mapping of wind resource. These maps are needed at high spatial resolution to show wind energy resource variations at the scale of a wind park. Wind resource mapping is achieved through the description of the spatial variations of statistical parameters characterizing wind climatology. For a precise estimation of these statistical parameters, high temporal resolution wind speed and direction measurements are needed. However, presently, there is no data source allying high spatial resolution and high temporal resolution. We propose a data fusion method taking advantage of the high spatial resolution of some remote sensing instruments (synthetic aperture radars) and the high temporal resolution of other remote sensing instruments (scatterometers). The data fusion method is applied to a case study and the results quality is assessed. The results show the pertinence of data fusion for the mapping of wind energy resource offshore. (author)

  14. Active Power Optimal Control of Wind Turbines with Doubly Fed Inductive Generators Based on Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Jiuwang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the randomness and fluctuation of wind energy, as well as the impact of strongly nonlinear characteristic of variable speed constant frequency (VSCF wind power generation system with doubly fed induction generators (DFIG, traditional active power control strategies are difficult to achieve high precision control and the output power of wind turbines is more fluctuated. In order to improve the quality of output electric energy of doubly fed wind turbines, on the basis of analyzing the operating principles and dynamic characteristics of doubly fed wind turbines, this paper proposes a new active power optimal control method of doubly fed wind turbines based on predictive control theory. This method uses state space model of wind turbines, based on the prediction of the future state of wind turbines, moves horizon optimization, and meanwhile, gets the control signals of pitch angle and generator torque. Simulation results show that the proposed control strategies can guarantee the utilization efficiency for wind energy. Simultaneously, they can improve operation stability of wind turbines and the quality of electric energy.

  15. Smoothing out the volatility of South Africa's wind and PV energy resources

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bofinger, S

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Solar PV & wind are the cheapest new-build options per kWh in South Africa. By 2020, a mix of PV, wind and flexible gas (LNG-based) costs the same as new coal, even without any value given to excess wind/PV energy. South Africa has abundant solar...

  16. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, A.; Crespo, A.; Navarro, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art oil models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought...... on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly...

  17. Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Myong Kim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of natural disasters and their related damage have led to a growing demand for models that predict financial loss. Although considerable research on the financial losses related to natural disasters has found significant predictors, there has been a lack of comprehensive study that addresses the relationship among vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and the economic losses of individual buildings. This study identifies the vulnerability indicators for hurricanes to establish a metric to predict the related financial loss. We classify hurricane-prone areas by highlighting the spatial distribution of losses and vulnerabilities. This study used a Geographical Information System (GIS to combine and produce spatial data and a multiple regression method to establish a wind damage prediction model. As the dependent variable, we used the value of the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA claim payout divided by the appraised values of the buildings to predict real economic loss. As independent variables, we selected a hurricane indicator and built environment vulnerability indicators. The model we developed can be used by government agencies and insurance companies to predict hurricane wind damage.

  18. Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

  19. Intelligent and robust prediction of short term wind power using genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zameer, Aneela; Arshad, Junaid; Khan, Asifullah; Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks is employed for short term wind power prediction. • Proposed predictor shows resilience against abrupt changes in weather. • Genetic programming evolves nonlinear mapping between meteorological measures and wind-power. • Proposed approach gives mathematical expressions of wind power to its independent variables. • Proposed model shows relatively accurate and steady wind-power prediction performance. - Abstract: The inherent instability of wind power production leads to critical problems for smooth power generation from wind turbines, which then requires an accurate forecast of wind power. In this study, an effective short term wind power prediction methodology is presented, which uses an intelligent ensemble regressor that comprises Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming. In contrast to existing series based combination of wind power predictors, whereby the error or variation in the leading predictor is propagated down the stream to the next predictors, the proposed intelligent ensemble predictor avoids this shortcoming by introducing Genetical Programming based semi-stochastic combination of neural networks. It is observed that the decision of the individual base regressors may vary due to the frequent and inherent fluctuations in the atmospheric conditions and thus meteorological properties. The novelty of the reported work lies in creating ensemble to generate an intelligent, collective and robust decision space and thereby avoiding large errors due to the sensitivity of the individual wind predictors. The proposed ensemble based regressor, Genetic Programming based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks, has been implemented and tested on data taken from five different wind farms located in Europe. Obtained numerical results of the proposed model in terms of various error measures are compared with the recent artificial intelligence based strategies to demonstrate the

  20. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  1. Pressure integration technique for predicting wind-induced response in high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly Mousaad Aly

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a procedure for response prediction in high-rise buildings under wind loads. The procedure is illustrated in an application example of a tall building exposed to both cross-wind and along-wind loads. The responses of the building in the lateral directions combined with torsion are estimated simultaneously. Results show good agreement with recent design standards; however, the proposed procedure has the advantages of accounting for complex mode shapes, non-uniform mass distribution, and interference effects from the surrounding. In addition, the technique allows for the contribution of higher modes. For accurate estimation of the acceleration response, it is important to consider not only the first two lateral vibrational modes, but also higher modes. Ignoring the contribution of higher modes may lead to underestimation of the acceleration response; on the other hand, it could result in overestimation of the displacement response. Furthermore, the procedure presented in this study can help decision makers, involved in a tall building design/retrofit to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, damping enhancement, and/or materials change, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability under extreme wind actions.

  2. Predicting wind-induced vibrations of high-rise buildings using unsteady CFD and modal analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Yue

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the wind-induced vibration of the CAARC standard tall building model, via unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a structural modal analysis. In this numerical procedure, the natural unsteady wind in the atmospheric boundary layer is modeled with an artificial inflow turbulence generation method. Then, the turbulent flow is simulated by the second mode of a Zonal Detached-Eddy Simulation, and a conservative quadrature-projection scheme is adopted to transfer unsteady loads from fluid to structural nodes. The aerodynamic damping that represents the fluid-structure interaction mechanism is determined by empirical functions extracted from wind tunnel experiments. Eventually, the flow solutions and the structural responses in terms of mean and root mean square quantities are compared with experimental measurements, over a wide range of reduced velocities. The significance of turbulent inflow conditions and aeroelastic effects is highlighted. The current methodology provides predictions of good accuracy and can be considered as a preliminary design tool to evaluate the unsteady wind effects on tall buildings.

  3. Understanding predicted shifts in diazotroph biogeography using resource competition theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dutkiewicz

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We examine the sensitivity of the biogeography of nitrogen fixers to a warming climate and increased aeolian iron deposition in the context of a global earth system model. We employ concepts from the resource-ratio theory to provide a simplifying and transparent interpretation of the results. First we demonstrate that a set of clearly defined, easily diagnosed provinces are consistent with the theory. Using this framework we show that the regions most vulnerable to province shifts and changes in diazotroph biogeography are the equatorial and South Pacific, and central Atlantic. Warmer and dustier climates favor diazotrophs due to an increase in the ratio of supply rate of iron to fixed nitrogen. We suggest that the emergent provinces could be a standard diagnostic for global change models, allowing for rapid and transparent interpretation and comparison of model predictions and the underlying mechanisms. The analysis suggests that monitoring of real world province boundaries, indicated by transitions in surface nutrient concentrations, would provide a clear and easily interpreted indicator of ongoing global change.

  4. Improving Wind Farm Dispatchability Using Model Predictive Control for Optimal Operation of Grid-Scale Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Halamay

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the use of model-based predictive control for energy storage systems to improve the dispatchability of wind power plants. Large-scale wind penetration increases the variability of power flow on the grid, thus increasing reserve requirements. Large energy storage systems collocated with wind farms can improve dispatchability of the wind plant by storing energy during generation over-the-schedule and sourcing energy during generation under-the-schedule, essentially providing on-site reserves. Model predictive control (MPC provides a natural framework for this application. By utilizing an accurate energy storage system model, control actions can be planned in the context of system power and state-of-charge limitations. MPC also enables the inclusion of predicted wind farm performance over a near-term horizon that allows control actions to be planned in anticipation of fast changes, such as wind ramps. This paper demonstrates that model-based predictive control can improve system performance compared with a standard non-predictive, non-model-based control approach. It is also demonstrated that secondary objectives, such as reducing the rate of change of the wind plant output (i.e., ramps, can be considered and successfully implemented within the MPC framework. Specifically, it is shown that scheduling error can be reduced by 81%, reserve requirements can be improved by up to 37%, and the number of ramp events can be reduced by 74%.

  5. Optimal Active Power Control of A Wind Farm Equipped with Energy Storage System based on Distributed Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Guo, Qinglai

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the Distributed Model Predictive Control (D-MPC) of a wind farm equipped with fast and short-term Energy Storage System (ESS) for optimal active power control using the fast gradient method via dual decomposition. The primary objective of the D-MPC control of the wind farm...... is power reference tracking from system operators. Besides, by optimal distribution of the power references to individual wind turbines and the ESS unit, the wind turbine mechanical loads are alleviated. With the fast gradient method, the convergence rate of the DMPC is significantly improved which leads...

  6. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool for wind tunnel model using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) technique to...

  7. Wind Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez D, J.M.

    1998-01-01

    The general theory of the wind energy conversion systems is presented. The availability of the wind resource in Colombia and the ranges of the speed of the wind in those which is possible economically to use the wind turbines are described. It is continued with a description of the principal technological characteristics of the wind turbines and are split into wind power and wind-powered pumps; and its use in large quantities grouped in wind farms or in autonomous systems. Finally, its costs and its environmental impact are presented

  8. Current error vector based prediction control of the section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong Junjie, E-mail: hongjjie@mail.sysu.edu.cn [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Li Liyi, E-mail: liliyi@hit.edu.cn [Dept. Electrical Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150000 (China); Zong Zhijian; Liu Zhongtu [School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006 (China)

    2011-10-15

    Highlights: {yields} The structure of the permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM) is new. {yields} A new current control method CEVPC is employed in this motor. {yields} The sectional power supply method is different to the others and effective. {yields} The performance gets worse with voltage and current limitations. - Abstract: To include features such as greater thrust density, higher efficiency without reducing the thrust stability, this paper proposes a section winding permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (SW-PMLSM), whose iron core is continuous, whereas winding is divided. The discrete system model of the motor is derived. With the definition of the current error vector and selection of the value function, the theory of the current error vector based prediction control (CEVPC) for the motor currents is explained clearly. According to the winding section feature, the motion region of the mover is divided into five zones, in which the implementation of the current predictive control method is proposed. Finally, the experimental platform is constructed and experiments are carried out. The results show: the current control effect has good dynamic response, and the thrust on the mover remains constant basically.

  9. Using Deep Learning to Predict Complex Systems: A Case Study in Wind Farm Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Torres

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Making every component of an electrical system work in unison is being made more challenging by the increasing number of renewable energies used, the electrical output of which is difficult to determine beforehand. In Spain, the daily electricity market opens with a 12-hour lead time, where the supply and demand expected for the following 24 hours are presented. When estimating the generation, energy sources like nuclear are highly stable, while peaking power plants can be run as necessary. Renewable energies, however, which should eventually replace peakers insofar as possible, are reliant on meteorological conditions. In this paper we propose using different deep-learning techniques and architectures to solve the problem of predicting wind generation in order to participate in the daily market, by making predictions 12 and 36 hours in advance. We develop and compare various estimators based on feedforward, convolutional, and recurrent neural networks. These estimators were trained and validated with data from a wind farm located on the island of Tenerife. We show that the best candidates for each type are more precise than the reference estimator and the polynomial regression currently used at the wind farm. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine which estimator type is most robust to perturbations. An analysis of our findings shows that the most accurate and robust estimators are those based on feedforward neural networks with a SELU activation function and convolutional neural networks.

  10. An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of

  11. Predictive control strategies for wind turbine system based on permanent magnet synchronous generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maaoui-Ben Hassine, Ikram; Naouar, Mohamed Wissem; Mrabet-Bellaaj, Najiba

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, Model Predictive Control and Dead-beat predictive control strategies are proposed for the control of a PMSG based wind energy system. The proposed MPC considers the model of the converter-based system to forecast the possible future behavior of the controlled variables. It allows selecting the voltage vector to be applied that leads to a minimum error by minimizing a predefined cost function. The main features of the MPC are low current THD and robustness against parameters variations. The Dead-beat predictive control is based on the system model to compute the optimum voltage vector that ensures zero-steady state error. The optimum voltage vector is then applied through Space Vector Modulation (SVM) technique. The main advantages of the Dead-beat predictive control are low current THD and constant switching frequency. The proposed control techniques are presented and detailed for the control of back-to-back converter in a wind turbine system based on PMSG. Simulation results (under Matlab-Simulink software environment tool) and experimental results (under developed prototyping platform) are presented in order to show the performances of the considered control strategies. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Numerical Prediction for the Size and Shape of a Flare in a Cross–Wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Vicente y Rodríguez

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A computational fluid–dynamics model is used to simulate the turbulent combustion in a flare exposed to a cross–wind. Our research is mostly focused on the cross flow velocity influence to flame aerodynamics. The flow simulation is performed as three dimensional along a Cartesian coordinates system. In order to simulate the combustion process, a fast–chemistry model with a 1–step global irreversible reaction to form CO2 and H2O is used. A radiation model is used to identify the mean flame trajectory. The simulated configuration consists in a propane discharge into an air stream, get ting oxygen supply from the cross–wind. The velocity of this cross–flow is increased from 0.8 m/s to 12 m/s. Comparative analysis of our predicted values with respect to available experimental results shows good agreement in terms of flame length as well as inclination angles.

  13. Real time simulation of nonlinear generalized predictive control for wind energy conversion system with nonlinear observer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouari, Kamel; Rekioua, Toufik; Ouhrouche, Mohand

    2014-01-01

    In order to make a wind power generation truly cost-effective and reliable, an advanced control techniques must be used. In this paper, we develop a new control strategy, using nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) approach, for DFIG-based wind turbine. The proposed control law is based on two points: NGPC-based torque-current control loop generating the rotor reference voltage and NGPC-based speed control loop that provides the torque reference. In order to enhance the robustness of the controller, a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the aerodynamic torque which is considered as an unknown perturbation. Finally, a real-time simulation is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

    1999-01-01

    Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

  15. Behavior of the aggregate wind resource in the ISO regions in the United States

    KAUST Repository

    Gunturu, Udaya

    2015-04-01

    The collective behavior of wind farms in seven Independent System Operator (ISO) areas has been studied. The generation duration curves for each ISO show that there is no aggregated power for some fraction of time. Aggregation of wind turbines mitigates intermittency to some extent, but in each ISO there is considerable fraction of time when there is less than 5% capacity. The hourly wind power time series show benefit of aggregation but the high and low wind events are lumped in time, thus indicating that intermittency is synchronized in each region. The timeseries show that there are instances when there is no wind power in most ISOs because of large-scale high pressure systems. An analytical consideration of the collective behavior of aggregated wind turbines shows that the benefit of aggregation saturates beyond a certain number of generating units asymptotically. Also, the benefit of aggregation falls rapidly with temporal correlation between the generating units.

  16. Behavior of the aggregate wind resource in the ISO regions in the United States

    KAUST Repository

    Gunturu, Udaya; Schlosser, Clemens Adam

    2015-01-01

    The collective behavior of wind farms in seven Independent System Operator (ISO) areas has been studied. The generation duration curves for each ISO show that there is no aggregated power for some fraction of time. Aggregation of wind turbines mitigates intermittency to some extent, but in each ISO there is considerable fraction of time when there is less than 5% capacity. The hourly wind power time series show benefit of aggregation but the high and low wind events are lumped in time, thus indicating that intermittency is synchronized in each region. The timeseries show that there are instances when there is no wind power in most ISOs because of large-scale high pressure systems. An analytical consideration of the collective behavior of aggregated wind turbines shows that the benefit of aggregation saturates beyond a certain number of generating units asymptotically. Also, the benefit of aggregation falls rapidly with temporal correlation between the generating units.

  17. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  18. Gain-Scheduled Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Laguerre Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Wisniewski, Rafal; Larsen, Lars Finn Sloth

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systematic approach to design gain-scheduled predictive controllers for wind turbines. The predictive control law is based on Laguerre functions to parameterize control signals and a parameter-dependent cost function that is analytically determined from turbine data....... These properties facilitate the design of speed controllers by placement of the closed-loop poles (when constraints are not active) and systematic adaptation towards changes in the operating point. Vibration control of undamped modes is achieved by imposing a certain degree of stability to the closed-loop system....... The approach can be utilized to the design of new controllers and to represent existing gain-scheduled controllers as predictive controllers. The numerical example and simulations illustrate the design of a speed controller augmented with active damping of the tower fore-aft displacement....

  19. Short term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frech, M.; Holzaepfel, F.; Gerz, T. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Konopka, J. [Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) GmbH, Langen (Germany)

    2000-07-14

    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways at appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20 minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS are discontinuities between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to airtraffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance. (orig.)

  20. Grid Integration of Offshore Wind | Wind | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grid Integration of Offshore Wind Grid Integration of Offshore Wind Much can be learned from the existing land-based integration research for handling the variability and uncertainty of the wind resource Arklow Bank offshore wind park consists of seven GE Wind 3.6-MW wind turbines. Integration and

  1. Solar PV resource for higher penetration through a combined spatial aggregation with wind

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bischof-Niemz, ST

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available between wind and solar PV and how these would be reflected in the power system. The benefits of spatial distribution of renewables are well understood, but the impact of the combined spatial aggregation of wind and solar PV is central to the design...

  2. Offshore wind resource mapping for Europe by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Badger, Merete

    2015-01-01

    For the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) project with 8 participating countries during5 years (March 2015 – March 2020) we will develop a new wind atlas covering most of the European countries as well as most of the offshore areas in Europe. For the offshore atlas we will rely on a combination of s...

  3. Frequency-Weighted Model Predictive Control of Trailing Edge Flaps on a Wind Turbine Blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castaignet, Damien; Couchman, Ian; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    flapwise blade root moment and trailing edge flap deflection. Frequency-weighted MPC is chosen for its ability to handle constraints on the trailing edge flaps deflection, and to target at loads with given frequencies only. The controller is first tested in servo-aeroelastic simulations, before being......This paper presents the load reduction achieved with trailing edge flaps during a full-scale test on a Vestas V27 wind turbine. The trailing edge flap controller is a frequency-weighted linear model predictive control (MPC) where the quadratic cost consists of costs on the zero-phase filtered...

  4. A probabilistic assessment of large scale wind power development for long-term energy resource planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Scott Warren

    A steady decline in the cost of wind turbines and increased experience in their successful operation have brought this technology to the forefront of viable alternatives for large-scale power generation. Methodologies for understanding the costs and benefits of large-scale wind power development, however, are currently limited. In this thesis, a new and widely applicable technique for estimating the social benefit of large-scale wind power production is presented. The social benefit is based upon wind power's energy and capacity services and the avoidance of environmental damages. The approach uses probabilistic modeling techniques to account for the stochastic interaction between wind power availability, electricity demand, and conventional generator dispatch. A method for including the spatial smoothing effect of geographically dispersed wind farms is also introduced. The model has been used to analyze potential offshore wind power development to the south of Long Island, NY. If natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) are the alternative generation sources, wind power exhibits a negative social benefit due to its high capacity cost and the relatively low emissions of these advanced fossil-fuel technologies. Environmental benefits increase significantly if charges for CO2 emissions are included. Results also reveal a diminishing social benefit as wind power penetration increases. The dependence of wind power benefits on natural gas and coal prices is also discussed. In power systems with a high penetration of wind generated electricity, the intermittent availability of wind power may influence hourly spot prices. A price responsive electricity demand model is introduced that shows a small increase in wind power value when consumers react to hourly spot prices. The effectiveness of this mechanism depends heavily on estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of aggregate electricity demand. This work makes a valuable

  5. Beyond Host Language Proficiency: Coping Resources Predicting International Students' Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mak, Anita S.; Bodycott, Peter; Ramburuth, Prem

    2015-01-01

    As international students navigate in a foreign educational environment, having higher levels of coping or stress-resistance resources--both internal and external--could be related to increased satisfaction with personal and university life. The internal coping resources examined in this study were host language proficiency, self-esteem,…

  6. Assessing Potential Wind Energy Resources in Saudi Arabia with a Skew-t Distribution

    KAUST Repository

    Tagle, Felipe

    2017-03-13

    Facing increasing domestic energy consumption from population growth and industrialization, Saudi Arabia is aiming to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and to broaden its energy mix by expanding investment in renewable energy sources, including wind energy. A preliminary task in the development of wind energy infrastructure is the assessment of wind energy potential, a key aspect of which is the characterization of its spatio-temporal behavior. In this study we examine the impact of internal climate variability on seasonal wind power density fluctuations using 30 simulations from the Large Ensemble Project (LENS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Furthermore, a spatio-temporal model for daily wind speed is proposed with neighbor-based cross-temporal dependence, and a multivariate skew-t distribution to capture the spatial patterns of higher order moments. The model can be used to generate synthetic time series over the entire spatial domain that adequately reproduces the internal variability of the LENS dataset.

  7. Assessing Potential Wind Energy Resources in Saudi Arabia with a Skew-t Distribution

    KAUST Repository

    Tagle, Felipe; Castruccio, Stefano; Crippa, Paola; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Facing increasing domestic energy consumption from population growth and industrialization, Saudi Arabia is aiming to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and to broaden its energy mix by expanding investment in renewable energy sources, including wind energy. A preliminary task in the development of wind energy infrastructure is the assessment of wind energy potential, a key aspect of which is the characterization of its spatio-temporal behavior. In this study we examine the impact of internal climate variability on seasonal wind power density fluctuations using 30 simulations from the Large Ensemble Project (LENS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Furthermore, a spatio-temporal model for daily wind speed is proposed with neighbor-based cross-temporal dependence, and a multivariate skew-t distribution to capture the spatial patterns of higher order moments. The model can be used to generate synthetic time series over the entire spatial domain that adequately reproduces the internal variability of the LENS dataset.

  8. High resolution modelling of wind fields for optimization of empirical storm flood predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecht, B.; Frank, H.

    2014-05-01

    High resolution wind fields are necessary to predict the occurrence of storm flood events and their magnitude. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) created a catalogue of detailed wind fields of 39 historical storms at the German North Sea coast from the years 1962 to 2011. The catalogue is used by the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Wasser-, Küsten- und Naturschutz (NLWKN) coastal research center to improve their flood alert service. The computation of wind fields and other meteorological parameters is based on the model chain of the DWD going from the global model GME via the limited-area model COSMO with 7 km mesh size down to a COSMO model with 2.2 km. To obtain an improved analysis COSMO runs are nudged against observations for the historical storms. The global model GME is initialised from the ERA reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As expected, we got better congruency with observations of the model for the nudging runs than the normal forecast runs for most storms. We also found during the verification process that different land use data sets could influence the results considerably.

  9. Exercise and sleep predict personal resources in employees' daily lives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nägel, Inga J; Sonnentag, Sabine

    2013-11-01

    The present study investigates the interaction of exercise and sleep on state-like personal resources in employees' daily lives. Further, the study examines the association between state-like personal resources and emotional exhaustion. We conducted a diary study over five consecutive working days (total of 443 days) with 144 employees who answered daily online surveys after work and before bedtime. Multilevel modeling showed that exercise after work was positively related to the next day's personal resources when sleep duration during the night time was longer compared to other nights. Furthermore, personal resources positively related to lower emotional exhaustion after work on the next day. This study demonstrates that exercise and sleep may help to renew personal resources. Results stress the importance of balancing exercise and sleep in daily life. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  10. Performance expectations, personal resources, and job resources : how do they predict work engagement?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barbier, M.; Hansez, I.; Chmiel, N.; Demerouti, E.

    2013-01-01

    Research on work engagement has mainly focused on the role of job and personal resources and has ignored the possible impact of personal demands workers develop with regard to their work. The aim of our study was to test the reciprocal relationships that job resources, personal resources, and

  11. NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource High Resolution Meteorology Data For Sustainable Building Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    A primary objective of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to adapt and infuse NASA's solar and meteorological data into the energy, agricultural, and architectural industries. Improvements are continuously incorporated when higher resolution and longer-term data inputs become available. Climatological data previously provided via POWER web applications were three-hourly and 1x1 degree latitude/longitude. The NASA Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data set provides higher resolution data products (hourly and 1/2x1/2 degree) covering the entire globe. Currently POWER solar and meteorological data are available for more than 30 years on hourly (meteorological only), daily, monthly and annual time scales. These data may be useful to several renewable energy sectors: solar and wind power generation, agricultural crop modeling, and sustainable buildings. A recent focus has been working with ASHRAE to assess complementing weather station data with MERRA data. ASHRAE building design parameters being investigated include heating/cooling degree days and climate zones.

  12. Profiles of Wind and Turbulence in the Coastal Atmospheric Boundary Layer of Lake Erie

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, H; Barthelmie, R J; Crippa, P; Doubrawa, P; Pryor, S C

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of wind resource in coastal zones is difficult due to the complexity of flow in the coastal atmospheric boundary layer (CABL). A three week campaign was conducted over Lake Erie in May 2013 to investigate wind characteristics and improve

  13. Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

  14. Wind energy applications of synthetic aperture radar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruun Christiansen, M.

    2006-11-15

    Synthetic aperture radars (SAR), mounted on satellites or aircraft, have proven useful for ocean wind mapping. Wind speeds at the height 10 m may be retrieved from measurements of radar backscatter using empirical model functions. The resulting wind fields are valuable in offshore wind energy planning as a supplement to on site measurements, which are costly and sparse, and model wind fields, which are not fully validated. Two applications of SAR measurements in offshore wind energy planning are addressed here: the study of wind farm wake effects and the potential of using SAR winds in offshore wind resource assessment. Firstly, wind wakes behind two large offshore wind farms in Denmark Horns Rev and Nysted are identified. A region of reduced wind speed is found downstream of both wind farms from the SAR wind fields. The wake extent and magnitude depends on the wind speed, the atmospheric stability, and the fraction of turbines operating. Wind farm wake effects are detected up to 20 km downwind of the last turbine. This distance is longer than predicted by state-of-the art wake models. Wake losses are typically 10-20% near the wind farms. Secondly, the potential of using SAR wind maps in offshore wind resource assessment is investigated. The resource assessment is made through Weibull fitting to frequency observations of wind speed and requires at least 100 satellite observations per year for a given site of interest. Predictions of the energy density are very sensitive to the wind speed and the highest possible accuracy on SAR wind retrievals is therefore sought. A 1.1 m s{sup -1} deviation on the mean wind speed is found through comparison with mast measurements at Horns Rev. The accuracy on mean wind speeds and energy densities found from satellite measurements varies with different empirical model functions. Additional uncertainties are introduced by the infrequent satellite sampling at fixed times of the day. The accuracy on satellite based wind resource

  15. Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

    1988-01-01

    Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

  16. The use of different ensemble forecasting systems for wind power prediction on a real case in the South of Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alessandrini, Stefano; Sperati, Simone; Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Short-term forecasting applied to wind energy is becoming increasingly important due to the constant growth of this renewable source, whose uncertainty requires a constant effort to meet the needs of the national electrical systems and their operators. Regarding to this, the probabilistic approach...... calibration performed on the wind speed EPS members allows an improvement from an over-confident situation observable from the rank histograms (in which the measurements fell quite always outside the bounds of the probability distribution) to a consistent ensemble spread. After that it is possible to convert...... the data to wind energy: the spread calculated on wind power can then be used as an accuracy predictor due to its level of correlation with the deterministic WPF error. In this presentation we investigate the performances for both wind power and accuracy prediction of the new EPS used at the ECMWF, whose...

  17. Can high-energy proton events in solar wind be predicted via classification of precursory structures?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallerberg, Sarah [Chemnitz University of Technology (Germany); Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Shock waves in the solar wind associated with solar coronal mass ejections produce fluxes of high-energy protons and ions with energies larger than 10 MeV. These fluxes present a danger to humans and electronic equipment in space, and also endanger passengers of over-pole air flights. The approaches that have been exploited for the prediction of high-energy particle events so far consist in training artificial neural networks on catalogues of events. Our approach towards this task is based on the identification of precursory structures in the fluxes of particles. In contrast to artificial neural networks that function as a ''black box'' transforming data into predictions, this classification approach can additionally provide information on relevant precursory events and thus might help to improve the understanding of underlying mechanisms of particle acceleration.

  18. A Predictive Power Control Strategy for DFIGs Based on a Wind Energy Converter System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoliang Yang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A feasible control strategy is proposed to control a doubly fed induction generator based on the wind energy converter system (DFIG-WECS. The main aim is to enhance the steady state and dynamic performance under the condition of the parameter perturbations and external disturbances and to satisfy the stator power response of the system. Within the proposed control method, the control scheme for the rotor side converter (RSC is developed on the model predictive control. Firstly, the self-adaptive reference trajectory is established from the deduced discrete state-space equation of the generator. Then, the rotor voltage is calculated by minimizing the global performance index under the current prediction steps at the sampling instant. Through the control scheme for the grid side converter (GSC and wind turbine, we have re-applied the conventional control. The effectiveness of the proposed control strategy is verified via time domain simulation of a 150 kW-575 V DFIG-WECS using Matlab/Simulink. The simulation result shows that the control of the DFIG with the proposed control method can enhance the steady and dynamic response capability better than the conventional ones when the system faces errors due to the parameter perturbations, external disturbances and the rotor speed.

  19. Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

    2016-09-01

    We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

  20. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during

  1. Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

    2016-04-01

    1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and

  2. Using Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing to Predict Cloud Resource Provisioning

    OpenAIRE

    Ashraf A. Shahin

    2016-01-01

    Elasticity is one of the key features of cloud computing that attracts many SaaS providers to minimize their services' cost. Cost is minimized by automatically provision and release computational resources depend on actual computational needs. However, delay of starting up new virtual resources can cause Service Level Agreement violation. Consequently, predicting cloud resources provisioning gains a lot of attention to scale computational resources in advance. However, most of current approac...

  3. Predicting service request rates for adaptive resource allocation in SOA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serebrenik, A.; Sidorova, N.; Barjis, J.; Kinghorn, J.; Ramaswamy, S.; Dubois, E.; Johannesson, P.

    2009-01-01

    Service orientation is rapidly becoming the common practice in the IT world. A price one often has to pay for the advantages of service oriented architectures (SOA) is performance deterioration. SOA performance heavily depends on the allocation of computational resources to services. The needs of

  4. Final Report for ALCC Allocation: Predictive Simulation of Complex Flow in Wind Farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barone, Matthew F. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ananthan, Shreyas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Churchfield, Matt [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Domino, Stefan P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Henry de Frahan, Marc [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Knaus, Robert C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Melvin, Jeremy [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Moser, Robert [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Sprague, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Thomas, Stephen [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-01

    This report documents work performed using ALCC computing resources granted under a proposal submitted in February 2016, with the resource allocation period spanning the period July 2016 through June 2017. The award allocation was 10.7 million processor-hours at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center. The simulations performed were in support of two projects: the Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) project, supported by the DOE EERE office; and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), supported by the DOE Office of Science. The project team for both efforts consists of staff scientists and postdocs from Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. At the heart of these projects is the open-source computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) code, Nalu. Nalu solves the low-Mach-number Navier-Stokes equations using an unstructured- grid discretization. Nalu leverages the open-source Trilinos solver library and the Sierra Toolkit (STK) for parallelization and I/O. This report documents baseline computational performance of the Nalu code on problems of direct relevance to the wind plant physics application - namely, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow and wall-modeled LES of a flow past a static wind turbine rotor blade. Parallel performance of Nalu and its constituent solver routines residing in the Trilinos library has been assessed previously under various campaigns. However, both Nalu and Trilinos have been, and remain, in active development and resources have not been available previously to rigorously track code performance over time. With the initiation of the ECP, it is important to establish and document baseline code performance on the problems of interest. This will allow the project team to identify and target any deficiencies in performance, as well as highlight any performance bottlenecks as we exercise the code on a greater variety of platforms and at larger scales. The current study is

  5. Extreme Value Predictions for Wave- and Wind-induced Loads on Floating Offshore Wind Turbines using FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Sunvard; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2007-01-01

    duration of the time domain simulations needed (typically 60-300s to cover the hy-drodynamic memory effects in the response) the calcu-lation of the mean out-crossing rates of a given response are very fast. Thus complicated non-linear effects can be included. The FORM analysis also identifies the most...... probable wave episodes leading to given re-sponses. As an example the motions of floating foundations for offshore wind turbines are analysed taking into consid-eration both the wave and wind induced loads and con-sidering different mooring systems. The possible large horizontal motions make it important...

  6. DEWEPS - Development and Evaluation of new Wind forecasting tools with an Ensemble Prediction System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moehrlen, C.; Joergensen, Jess

    2012-02-15

    There is an ongoing trend of increased privatization in the handling of renewable energy. This trend is required to ensure an efficient energy system, where improvements that make economic sense are prioritised. The reason why centralized forecasting can be a challenge in that matter is that the TSOs tend to optimize on physical error rather than cost. Consequently, the market is likely to speculate against the TSO, which in turn increases the cost of balancing. A privatized pool of wind and/or solar power is more difficult to speculate against, because the optimization criteria is unpredictable due to subjective risk considerations that may be taken into account at any time. Although there is and additional level of costs for the trading of the private volume, it can be argued that competition will accelerate efficiency from an economic perspective. The amount of power put into the market will become less predictable, when the wind power spot market bid takes place on the basis of a risk consideration in addition to the forecast information itself. The scope of this project is to contribute to more efficient wind power integration targeted both to centralised and decentralised cost efficient IT solutions, which will complement each other in market based energy systems. The DEWEPS project resulted in an extension of the number of Ensemble forecasts, an incremental trade strategy for balancing unpredictable power production, and an IT platform for efficient handling of power generation units. Together, these three elements contribute to less need for reserves, more capacity in the market, and thus more competition. (LN)

  7. Avian Monitoring and Risk Assessment at the Tehachapi Pass Wind Resource Area; Period of Performance: October 2, 1996--May 27, 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R.; Neumann, N.; Tom, J.; Erickson, W. P.; Strickland, M. D.; Bourassa, M.; Bay, K. J.; Sernka, K. J.

    2004-09-01

    Observations of dead raptors at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area triggered concerns on the parts of regulatory agencies, environmental/conservation groups, wildlife resource agencies, and wind and electric utility industries about possible impacts to birds from wind energy development. Bird fatality rates observed at most wind projects are not currently considered significant to individual bird species populations. Although many bird species have observed fatalities, raptors have received the most attention. The primary objective of this study was to estimate and compare bird utilization, fatality rates, and collision risk indices among factors such as bird taxonomic groups, turbine types, and turbine locations within the operating wind plant in the Tehachapi Pass WRA, in south-central California between October 1996 and May 1998.

  8. Solar-wind predictions for the Parker Solar Probe orbit. Near-Sun extrapolations derived from an empirical solar-wind model based on Helios and OMNI observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venzmer, M. S.; Bothmer, V.

    2018-03-01

    Context. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP; formerly Solar Probe Plus) mission will be humanitys first in situ exploration of the solar corona with closest perihelia at 9.86 solar radii (R⊙) distance to the Sun. It will help answer hitherto unresolved questions on the heating of the solar corona and the source and acceleration of the solar wind and solar energetic particles. The scope of this study is to model the solar-wind environment for PSPs unprecedented distances in its prime mission phase during the years 2018 to 2025. The study is performed within the Coronagraphic German And US SolarProbePlus Survey (CGAUSS) which is the German contribution to the PSP mission as part of the Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe. Aim. We present an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere which is derived from OMNI and Helios data. The German-US space probes Helios 1 and Helios 2 flew in the 1970s and observed solar wind in the ecliptic within heliocentric distances of 0.29 au to 0.98 au. The OMNI database consists of multi-spacecraft intercalibrated in situ data obtained near 1 au over more than five solar cycles. The international sunspot number (SSN) and its predictions are used to derive dependencies of the major solar-wind parameters on solar activity and to forecast their properties for the PSP mission. Methods: The frequency distributions for the solar-wind key parameters, magnetic field strength, proton velocity, density, and temperature, are represented by lognormal functions. In addition, we consider the velocity distributions bi-componental shape, consisting of a slower and a faster part. Functional relations to solar activity are compiled with use of the OMNI data by correlating and fitting the frequency distributions with the SSN. Further, based on the combined data set from both Helios probes, the parameters frequency distributions are fitted with respect to solar distance to obtain power law dependencies. Thus an empirical solar-wind model for the inner

  9. Performance evaluation of WAVEWATCH III model in the Persian Gulf using different wind resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazeminezhad, Mohammad Hossein; Siadatmousavi, Seyed Mostafa

    2017-07-01

    The third-generation wave model, WAVEWATCH III, was employed to simulate bulk wave parameters in the Persian Gulf using three different wind sources: ERA-Interim, CCMP, and GFS-Analysis. Different formulations for whitecapping term and the energy transfer from wind to wave were used, namely the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497-518, 1996), WAM cycle 4 (BJA and WAM4), and Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917-1941, 2010) (TEST405 and TEST451 parameterizations) source term packages. The obtained results from numerical simulations were compared to altimeter-derived significant wave heights and measured wave parameters at two stations in the northern part of the Persian Gulf through statistical indicators and the Taylor diagram. Comparison of the bulk wave parameters with measured values showed underestimation of wave height using all wind sources. However, the performance of the model was best when GFS-Analysis wind data were used. In general, when wind veering from southeast to northwest occurred, and wind speed was high during the rotation, the model underestimation of wave height was severe. Except for the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497-518, 1996) source term package, which severely underestimated the bulk wave parameters during stormy condition, the performances of other formulations were practically similar. However, in terms of statistics, the Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917-1941, 2010) source terms with TEST405 parameterization were the most successful formulation in the Persian Gulf when compared to in situ and altimeter-derived observations.

  10. Sustainable use of marine resources through offshore wind and mussel farm co-location

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Tullio, Giacomo R.; Mariani, Patrizio; Benassai, Guido

    2018-01-01

    wind farms and open-water mussel cultivation. An index of co-location sustainability (SI) was developed based on the application of MCE technique constructed with physical and biological parameters on the basis of remote-sensing data. The relevant physical factors considered were wind velocity, depth...... range, concerning the site location for energy production, and sea surface temperature anomaly. The biological variables used were Chlorofill-a (as a measurement of the productivity) and Particle Organic Carbon(POC) concentration, in order to assess their influence on the probable benefits and complete...

  11. The Answer Is Blowing in the Wind. Investment in Training from a Human Resource Accounting Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanson, Ulf

    1998-01-01

    Presents components of human resource accounting (HRA)--description of human resource costs, estimation of return on investment, estimation of human resource values. Reviews research on the influence of HRA on decision making, concluding that a number of factors inhibit its effective use. (SK)

  12. A simplified model predicting the weight of the load carrying beam in a wind turbine blade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    2016-01-01

    from 20 to 90 m. In addition, it can be seen that for a blade using glass fibre reinforced polymers, the design is controlled by the deflection and thereby the material stiffness in order to avoid the blade to hit the tower. On the other hand if using aluminium, the design will be controlled...... to predict the weight of the load carrying beam when using glassfibre reinforced polymers, carbon fibre reinforced polymers or an aluminium alloy as the construction material. Thereby, it is found that the weight of a glass fibre wind turbine blade is increased from 0.5 to 33 tons when the blade length grows...... by the fatigue resistance in orderto making the material survive the 100 to 500 million load cycles experience of the windturbine blade throughout the lifetime. The aluminium blade is also found to be considerably heavier compared with the composite blades....

  13. Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, T.; Aragon, Cecilia; Bardina, Jorge; Britten, Roy

    2002-01-01

    A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

  14. State-Space Modeling and Performance Analysis of Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Based on a Model Predictive Control Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bassi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Advancements in wind energy technologies have led wind turbines from fixed speed to variable speed operation. This paper introduces an innovative version of a variable-speed wind turbine based on a model predictive control (MPC approach. The proposed approach provides maximum power point tracking (MPPT, whose main objective is to capture the maximum wind energy in spite of the variable nature of the wind’s speed. The proposed MPC approach also reduces the constraints of the two main functional parts of the wind turbine: the full load and partial load segments. The pitch angle for full load and the rotating force for the partial load have been fixed concurrently in order to balance power generation as well as to reduce the operations of the pitch angle. A mathematical analysis of the proposed system using state-space approach is introduced. The simulation results using MATLAB/SIMULINK show that the performance of the wind turbine with the MPC approach is improved compared to the traditional PID controller in both low and high wind speeds.

  15. Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Larry J.

    After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

  16. Reply to the Discussion of Space-Time Modelling with Long-Memory Dependence: Assessing Ireland’s Wind Resource

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-10-01

    meteorologists’ rule-of-thumb that climatic drift manifests itself in periods greater than 30 years. For a fractionally-differenced model with our...estimates in a univariate ARIMA (p, d, q) with I d I< 0.5 has been derived by Li and McLrjd (1986). The model used by I-Iaslett an Raftery can be viewed as...Reply to the Discussion of "Space-time Modelling with Long-mnmory cDependence: Assessing Ireland’s Wind Resource" cJohn Haslett Department of

  17. Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

    2012-07-01

    This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

  18. Method to predict fatigue lifetimes of GRP wind turbine blades and comparison with experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Echtermeyer, A.T. [Det Norske Veritas Research AS, Hoevik (Norway); Kensche, C. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Stuttgart (Germany, F.R); Bach, P. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN), Petten (Netherlands); Poppen, M. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden); Lilholt, H.; Andersen, S.I.; Broendsted, P. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a method to predict fatigue lifetimes of fiber reinforced plastics in wind turbine blades. It is based on extensive testing within the EU-Joule program. The method takes the measured fatigue properties of a material into account so that credit can be given to materials with improved fatigue properties. The large number of test results should also give confidence in the fatigue calculation method for fiber reinforced plastics. The method uses the Palmgren-Miner sum to predict lifetimes and is verified by tests using well defined load sequences. Even though this approach is generally well known in fatigue analysis, many details in the interpretation and extrapolation of the measurements need to be clearly defined, since they can influence the results considerably. The following subjects will be described: Method to measure SN curves and to obtain tolerance bounds, development of a constant lifetime diagram, evaluation of the load sequence, use of Palmgren-Miner sum, requirements for load sequence testing. The fatigue lifetime calculation method has been compared against measured data for simple loading sequences and the more complex WISPERX loading sequence for blade roots. The comparison is based on predicted mean lifetimes, using the same materials to obtain the basic SN curves and to measure laminates under complicated loading sequences. 24 refs, 7 figs, 5 tabs

  19. Wind: new wind markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, A.

    2005-01-01

    The June 2005 edition of 'Wind Force 12' suggests that wind could generate 12% of global electricity requirements by 2020. But what moves a potential market into an emerging one? Geographical factors include a good wind resource, plenty of open space and the ability to get the generated electricity to end-users. A country's political framework is equally important, with fixed price systems, renewable quota systems and political will all playing a part. Some potential wind markets around the world are thought to have the conditions necessary to become key players in the wind industry. The emerging markets in countries such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Japan and the Philippines are highlighted as examples

  20. Bird Risk Behaviors and Fatalities at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Period of Performance, March 1998--December 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thelander, C. G.; Smallwood, K. S.; Rugge, L.

    2003-12-01

    It has been documented that wind turbine operations at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area kill large numbers of birds of multiple species, including raptors. We initiated a study that integrates research on bird behaviors, raptor prey availability, turbine design, inter-turbine distribution, landscape attributes, and range management practices to explain the variation in avian mortality at two levels of analysis: the turbine and the string of turbines. We found that inter-specific differences in intensities of use of airspace within close proximity did not explain the variation in mortality among species. Unique suites of attributes relate to mortality of each species, so species-specific analyses are required to understand the factors that underlie turbine-caused fatalities. We found that golden eagles are killed by turbines located in the canyons and that rock piles produced during preparation of the wind tower laydown areas related positively to eagle mortality, perhaps due to the use of these rock piles as cover by desert cottontails. Other similar relationships between fatalities and environmental factors are identified and discussed. The tasks remaining to complete the project are summarized.